10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The Phillies came into this series having just swept the Rockies. They scored a total of 32 runs over the four games (which were at home), but the bats went silent last night as five Mets pitchers combined to deliver just the second no-no in club history. It ended up as a 3-0 win for New York, who has enjoyed an excellent start to 2022 with the highest win percentage (.714) in all of MLB and second best run differential (+36). But I think tonight is an excellent spot to jump on the Phillies as you know they’ll be highly motivated to atone for last night. As reflected by the odds, these NL East teams are a lot more evenly matched than what the standings say right now.

While the Phils haven’t been quite as successful on the road as they’ve been at home, I like the starting pitching matchup for them tonight. Kyle Gibson gets the baseball and he’s posted a 0.985 WHIP over his first four starts. Gibson did not face the Mets when the teams played in Philadelphia earlier this month, but did have two quality starts against them in the second half of 2021. Gibson’s only mistakes in his last start, an 8-2 win over Colorado, were giving up a pair of solo home runs. Other than those, he allowed just one additional hit over his 5 ⅔ IP. 

Gibson will be facing Taijuan Walker, who is coming off the injured list. Walker has only thrown two innings in 2022 and they were against the Phils on April 11th. He didn’t give up a hit, but the Philly came back to win that game 5-4 after Walker left with a sore shoulder. I often like to fade pitchers in the first start back from injury as they aren’t in a groove. The injury coming so early in the season is a clear disadvantage to Walker. Note that the Phillies did draw six walks yesterday. If they can continue to be patient at the plate, they’ll get to Walker as you know the bats will wake up after what happened yesterday. Friday was the fifth shutout of the season for the Mets. Off the previous four, they are 1-2 in the next game if facing the same opponent. 10* Philadelphia

10* Houston (7:07 ET): The Astros come into this series having won three straight, all over Texas on the road. They won yesterday, despite accumulating only three hits. If they can do that, then it stands to reason with a likely bigger display of offense tonight, the road team can win again. This is a bit of a “revenge series” for the ‘Stros, who dropped two of three at home to Toronto last week. The Blue Jays ended up taking three of four from Boston to start their week, but have scored a total of only two runs in their last two contests. I think the value resides with Houston for this series opener. 

It’ll be Jose Urquidy getting the nod for Houston tonight. He pitched in the last series vs. Toronto and ended up with a bit of a hard-luck no-decision after giving up only two runs in 5 ⅔ innings. The Astros wound up losing that game 3-2. Urquidy did not pitch well his last time on the road, but I like his chances here as the Blue Jays lineup has not done much to impress in recent days and Vladimir Guerrero is likely still out after missing yesterday’s game. Something that I find interesting is that while Toronto is 7-3 at home thus far, they’ve actually allowed more runs than they have scored in those 10 games. 

The Blue Jays haven’t lost a series in 2022 (5-0-1) but they are 0-3 when Yusei Kikuchi takes the mound. Kikuchi (0-3 TSR) will start Friday, the first time he’s gotten to pitch at home. He did pitch in the last series vs. Houston and obviously that was the lone game his team dropped. Kikuchi allowed four runs in 3 ⅔ innings and had major control issues with five walks. Houston, who is a solid 8-5 on the road so far, knows Kikuchi well as they are the team he’s faced more than any other in his career. Those starts haven’t gone well for Kikuchi as he’s 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA. His 1.75 WHIP through three starts isn’t good either. 10* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a RUN LINE selection where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. It was obviously not a good series vs. the Yankees for the O’s as they lost all three games by three or more runs. But returning to Camden Yards to face the Red Sox is a far more favorable matchup. Boston is closer to Baltimore in the AL East standings than they are to any of the top three teams. The Red Sox also failed to score yesterday, which was the 7th time in the L10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The home team will do no worse than a one-run loss in tonight’s series opener. 

Now one-run games have not been kind to the Red Sox thus far as they’ve lost five of them so far (tied for most in all of MLB) including four in just the last eight games. Yesterday was the latest as they fell 1-0 in Toronto, a game they ended up with just four hits. Boston lost three of four overall in that series and could again be without designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who also missed yesterday’s contest. The starting pitcher for tonight will be veteran southpaw Rich Hill, who has yet to make it through five full innings and the end result is a 1.615 WHIP. I think Baltimore can get to him. 

The Orioles will counter Hill with one of their top prospects, Kyle Bradish, who is making his big league debut. I like the spot given Boston’s recent struggles at the plate. Plus the Red Sox are unfamiliar with Bradish, who allowed just four runs in three starts for Triple-A Norfolk to start the season. On the flip side, the O’s are quite familiar with Hill. Though they ended up being swept in NY, the O’s outhit the Yankees yesterday, only to be undone by FIVE errors in the field. They’ll play cleaner today and also have the edge over Boston when it comes to the bullpen. O’s relievers have a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Under Padres/Pirates (6:35 ET): San Diego is coming off a series in Cincinnati where all three games managed to go Over the total. The Padres averaged a healthy eight runs per game versus the Reds and the favorable schedule continues this weekend with a visit to Pittsburgh. I think you can probably make a case that the Pirates and Reds are the two worst teams in MLB right now (Nationals are pretty bad as well). Playing in the tough NL West (Dodgers & Giants both off to strong starts), San Diego needs to continue to rack up victories at the expense of the league’s bottom feeders. 

But I think the better value tonight is on the Under. Yu Darvish will get the starting nod for the Padres here and he’s been outstanding in three of his four starts. There was the one outlier against the Giants that we’ll pretend never happened, but the other three starts have seen Darvish allow a total of just five hits in 18 ⅔ IP and only one run to score. His last two starts came against the Dodgers and Braves, both of whom obviously field stronger lineups than the Pirates, who have scored only three runs in their last two games. In six of the L10 games, Pittsburgh has been held to two runs or fewer. They are hitting .199 over the L7 games. 

The question now becomes - can Pittsburgh pitching keep San Diego hitting in check? Well, I think the Padres are due to regress a bit at the plate, considering they are bottom five in the NL in both expected batting average and expected slugging. The task falls on Zach Thompson, who has admittedly not been good in his L2 starts, but he was charged with five unearned runs his last time out. His ERA of 10.80 is obviously only going to get better. San Diego is only hitting .229 the L7 games, so it’s been lucky to average 5.0 rpg over the same stretch. 8* Under Padres/Pirates

9* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Wednesday marked just the second time all season that a Rays’ starter got a win. Drew Rasmussen threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball, with nine strikeouts, and on the flip side TB caught a bit of a break as Seattle’s starter (Marco Gonzales) had to leave after recording just one out, because he was struck by a line drive. The Rays’ rotation remains somewhat in tatters, resulting in Jeffrey Springs getting the call as an opener for this afternoon’s series finale. That may not sound ideal, but this is a strategy that the club has made work for years and I’m a “seller” on the Mariners right now. 

Admittedly, Seattle has had Tampa Bay’s number the last several years, winning 24 of the last 34 head to head matchups including seven of the last nine. But this is a team I firmly believe will regress in 2022. They overachieved greatly last season, winning 90 games despite a -51 run differential. To put those numbers in their proper context, the Rays won 100 games in ‘21 and had a +206 run differential (both AL bests). The Mariners haven’t been hitting much in the early going as they’ll come into today’s matinee with a .197 team batting average on the road. Starter Chris Flexen is 1-2 through three starts and really struggled the one time he pitched on the road, allowing three runs in just 4 ⅓ IP.

In two previous starts vs. the Rays, Flexen has a 6.52 ERA. He’ll face a lineup that I believe is due to “break out” today. Not concerned about the Rays going with the opener as their bullpen has been solid so far (1.05 WHIP). TB pitching has held opposing hitters to a .208 average thus far. This has traditionally been a solid home team, especially when favored in the -125 to -175 range (36-15 L3 seasons). Springs has made seven appearances so far this season, all in relief, and has yet to allow a run (just two hits). 9* Tampa Bay

9* Detroit (1:10 ET): I realize that these are two teams trending in opposite directions right now, but I look for the Tigers (losers of four straight) to avoid the sweep today in Minnesota. The Twins have captured six in a row, all against division rivals, and now lead the AL Central with a 10-8 record. They are, in fact, the lone team in the division with a winning record right now. Over the course of the six-game win streak, Minnesota pitching has surrendered only 11 runs total. But yesterday marked the 1st time this season Detroit was shut out and I like their starter (Tarik Skubal) for Thursday. 

Skubal did not allow an earned run in either of his L2 starts, holding Colorado and Kansas City to just one unearned run in 11 ⅔ IP. He also did not walk a single batter in either while striking out 13. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen has been outstanding thus far, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Bottom line is that I do not see them giving up many runs this afternoon. Now it's up to the offense to turn things around.

Like Skubal, the Twins’ Bailey Ober has made three starts so far in 2022. His numbers are similar, but Ober has allowed 2 HRs while Skubal hasn’t allowed any. I realize that the Tigers have not done a lot of scoring lately, but they did put 13 runs on the board Saturday. Do I think they’ll do that here? No. But with Skubal on the bump, they won’t have to. Ober had a 5.79 ERA in two starts vs. Detroit last season and the Tigers have won five straight times when dropping the first two games of a series. 9* Detroit

10* Run Line Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): So the Pirates have made a pitching change for tonight, electing to go with Dillon Peters in place of Bryce Wilson, who has been scratched for a still unspecified reason. I’m sticking with the Bucs to stay within one run of the Brewers on Wednesday night, taking them on the run line. I know that things are looking rather dire in Pittsburgh at this moment, as the team lost again to Milwaukee last night, this time by a score of 12-8. The Bucs are now 0-4 in 2022 against the Brew Crew, but overall things may not be as bad as they seem in the Steel City. 

The club is 8-9 overall and has a winning record here at PNC Park. Their YTD run differential of -32, third worst in all of MLB, is largely a byproduct of the one 21-0 drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend. It should be noted that while the Bucs did have that horrific loss on Saturday, they won the other three games at Wrigley Field. They are 8-5 when NOT facing the Brewers. Also, coming off a loss, the Pirates are 5-3. I think they’re due to beat Milwaukee here and Peters should pitch well. So far, he’s offered the club 10 ⅓ scoreless innings in relief with eight strikeouts. He’s picked up three wins. 

Milwaukee may have scored 12 runs yesterday, but they are still only hitting .211 for the year and have four one-run victories to their name. It’s hard to continuously beat the same team, especially a division rival, and this is where I see the Brew Crew “slipping up.” Aaron Ashby had four walks in his only previous start and allowed three runs in four innings. He also gave up a home run. Before last night’s win, the Brewers had not finished a game with double digit hits since the season opener. So expect their offensive production to go down here and Ashby isn’t someone you can expect to pitch deep into a game. Again, the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

9* NY Mets (1:15 ET): What else can be said about the Mets at this point, other than that they are clearly one of baseball’s top teams in the early going? Only the Dodgers and Giants (two best records last year) can claim better run differentials, but the Mets have the best record at 14-5. This afternoon, they go for the sweep here in St. Louis while sending Carlos Carrasco to the hill. I had the Mets last night as they shut the Cardinals out 3-0 behind six strong innings from Chris Bassitt. Look for them to finish off the sweep. 

Carrasco vs. St. Louis starter Steven Matz (who used to be with the Mets) looks like a classic pitching mismatch. It clearly favors the Mets as Carrasco checks in with a 1.47 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three starts. Now, two of the Mets’ five losses have come with Carrasco on the mound. But, given his numbers, you can’t blame Carrasco. He has a 2.84 ERA in two prior starts vs. St. Louis and look for him to dominate them again as the Cards simply aren’t hitting right now. They have scored just 14 runs their previous seven games and managed only three hits last night. 

Matz was lit up in his first start of the year where he gave up seven runs in three innings (to Pittsburgh!) Since then he’s been a lot better, but he also got to face lowly Cincinnati his last time out. As I mentioned in yday’s analysis, the Cardinals’ record is a bit phony as they’ve gotten to face both the Pirates and Reds (two worst teams in baseball?) Look for the Mets to make it a season-high four straight wins here. 9* NY Mets

10* NY Mets (7:45 ET): The Mets have certainly gotten off to a great start as they have the second best record in all of baseball (13-5) and the third best run differential (+35). They’ve already opened up a 4.5 game lead in the NL East where they are the only team currently above .500. Now Mets’ fans will recall last season’s hot start, which meant nothing in the end as they faltered in the second half and ceded the pennant to the eventual World Series Champion Braves. But this team certainly “feels” a bit different as evident by last night’s come from behind victory in St. Louis where they scored five times in the top of the ninth. 

I look for the Mets to now make it two in a row here at Busch Stadium on Tuesday. They send Chris Bassitt to the hill. Through three starts, Bassitt has a 3.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and that’s after getting knocked around by the Giants his last time out. Prior to that, Bassitt had surrendered just one run on five hits in 12 IP. He’s gone exactly six innings in all three starts, so the Mets’ bullpen may get a breather tonight. 

Can’t say the same for the St. Louis’ pen however, as hard-throwing Jordan Hicks is set to make only his second-career start. Hicks made it through only 46 pitches in his first start, a 5-0 loss to Miami and there were control issues. The Mets have been pretty patient at the plate thus far and can make HIcks pay. The Cardinals have played a pretty soft schedule to this points (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), so some of their numbers are misleading. The way they lost last night was pretty demoralizing, so look for that to carry over to today. 10* NY Mets

7* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): After losing Sunday night, 1-0 to Milwaukee, the Phillies quickly rebounded to take the series opener from Colorado 8-2. Things actually got off to a dicey start for the home team, as they trailed 2-0 after two innings, but they took over from there and three Rockies’ errors certainly aided in the cause. The eight runs scored last night were more than the Phils had in the entire series vs. Milwaukee. I think the offensive resurgence continues tonight and the home team wins again. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week as German Marquez goes for Colorado while Zach Eflin toes the rubber for Philadelphia. Eflin won last week’s meeting, 9-6, although both starters allowed four runs. Marquez allowed three homers though. It was the lone game captured by the Phillies at Coors Field, but as you know the Rockies are a lot worse on the road, evident by their poor 44-72 record away from home the L3 seasons. This will be Marquez’s first road start of 2022. Going back to last season, he is winless over six straight outings while posting a 7.12 ERA. 

The Phillies were expected to contend for a playoff berth this season, so a 7-10 record is definitely not what they were looking for. They are just 5-5 at home, however opponents are batting just .193 in those games, so the record (theoretically) should be a lot better. In his only home start thus far, Eflin tossed four shutout innings of two-hit ball. The Rockies are 16-44 L60 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 7* Philadelphia

10* Boston (7:07 ET): The Red Sox come into this series a little bit wounded. After seizing the series opener in Tampa Bay on Friday (I had ‘em +140!), they would go on to drop the next two games. Boston’s record is now 7-9 on the year and they’re just a game up on last place Baltimore. Meanwhile, Toronto is in first place in the AL East with a 10-6 mark, although they too lost on Sunday, 8-7 at Houston in a game that went 10 innings. That snapped the Blue Jays’ four-game win streak. These teams just met last week in Boston with the Red Sox again taking the series opener, only to drop the next two games. Tonight, I’ll call for them to make it three straight wins in series openers. 

Monday’s starter for Toronto, Jose Berrios, probably has the most undeserved 3-0 TSR in all of baseball. Berrios has a 6.35 ERA and 2.03 WHIP, yet somehow the Blue Jays have won every time he’s taken the mound. Now the poor individual numbers are mostly due to one start, his first of 2022, where Berrios surrendered four runs in one-third of an inning. He allowed 3 HRs in his first two starts, but was admittedly much better in his last start, which was against the Red Sox. Berrios held them to just one run over six innings. 

But Boston did pound out eight hits off Berrios and 10 for the game. The fact they scored only one run was very unlucky and the difference in the game ended up being a five-run second inning by the Blue Jays. I don’t see that happening again here with Nathan Eovaldi starting for the Red Sox. Eovaldi has allowed 3 ER or less in all three starts thus far and he was on the mound for the series opening win against Toronto last week. He allowed just one run on seven hits over 4 ⅔ IP. Going back to last season, Eovaldi also has exhibited tremendous control as he’s not walked more than two batters in any of his L22 starts. 10* Boston

7* Philadelphia (7:08 ET): This is a rubber match between two playoff hopefuls in the Senior Circuit. Milwaukee won yesterday, 5-3, with a four run fifth inning being the difference and it included Willy Adames stealing home. But the Brewers are one of many teams struggling to hit in the early part of the season. They are at just .209 for the year. Meanwhile, the Phillies are a top five team in both batting average and OPS, so I expect a repeat of the season opener, which the home team won 4-2. 

Veteran Aaron Nola will get the nod Sunday night for the Phils. This will be his fourth start and he’s been better than his 5.53 ERA suggests. His WHIP is only 1.16 and he’s gotten better each start. Last time out, Nola impressively allowed just two runs in 5 ⅓ at Coors Field. While the Phils didn’t get the win that day, I like their chances here against the scuffling Brewers, who are scoring just 3.1 rpg on the road so far. I mentioned the low team batting average earlier. It’s bottom five in all of MLB and over the last seven games, that number dips to .201. 

Eric Lauer will oppose Nola tonight. The Brewers have won both of Lauer’s previous two starts, but they came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. While the Brew Crew went a combined 5-1 against those two teams, they haven’t won any other series. Outside of the one inning yesterday, the Phillies have largely controlled this series, allowing only three runs. In front of a national TV audience, I expect them to take this series. 7* Philadelphia

10* Oakland (4:07 ET): After losing five in a row, the Rangers have turned around to win three straight and now are in position to sweep the division rival A’s here in Oakland. I cannot see that transpiring, so I’m backing the home team in Sunday’s finale. Thus far, it has been Texas’ pitching that has been the key in this series as they’ve allowed the A’s to score just one run in the two games. That’s a far cry from the start of the season when they allowed 75 runs in the first 12 games. The Rangers’ staff has still allowed more runs than every other American League team in 2022 and I expect the home team to avoid the sweep here. 

It will be Garrett Richards “opening” Sunday’s game, followed by Spencer Howard, who is returning from a stint on the DL. Richards has made four relief appearances this season, but this will be his first start. He’s yet to go more than one inning in any of his previous four appearances. As for Howard, he was hammered in his lone start, giving up six runs in three innings vs. Toronto. I just don’t think you can be too confident in this duo if you’re a Rangers’ fan. Also, Texas is just 3-15 its last 18 games as a road favorite and 1-8 its last nine as a favorite overall (goes back to last season). 

The only runs that the Rangers scored yesterday came in the eighth inning after a replay review. So I’m expecting a solid outing here from A’s starter Cole Irvin, who pitched well here at home his last time out. Admittedly, it was against Baltimore, but the southpaw gave up just one run over five innings in what was his best start to date. This will be Irvin’s fourth start of 2022 overall. Prior to Saturday, Oakland had been on a 5-0 run off a loss. They are 12-3 after allowing two runs or less the previous game (goes back to last season, obviously) and won the only other time this season they were coming off a shutout loss. 10* Oakland

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): The Dodgers have certainly had the Padres’ number as going back to last season, they’ve beaten their NL West rivals 10 straight times. It was 6-1 on Friday with both Mookie Betts and Max Muncy homering for the road team. The Dodgers are, not surprisingly, my #1 team in the power rankings as they have a MLB-best +37 run differential. However, I expect their win streak over the Padres to come to an end Saturday night as they’re turning to Tyler Anderson in what is in essence, a spot start. 

Anderson would be in most teams’ rotations, but here in LA, that’s just not needed due to the incredible depth in the rotation. Anderson was signed in the offseason, knowing he wouldn’t be a rotation regular, but he’s getting the chance here because Andrew Heaney (also an offseason signee) is hurt. It’s not like Anderson has had the greatest career; he has a 4.59 ERA in 113 starts and last season (with Pittsburgh & Seattle) was right in line as he went 7-11 with a 4.53 ERA (in 31 starts). 

San Diego will counter with its Opening Day starter, Yu Darvish, who makes his fourth start of 2022. Two of the three have gone very well. Darvish no-hit Arizona for six innings on Opening Day, then last time out he held Atlanta to one run on four hits (6 ⅓ IP). In between, there was a disastrous outing vs. the Giants, but I view that as an aberration (cold & windy night). Despite last night’s loss, the Padres are a top five team in the National League and more than capable of beating the Dodgers on any given night. In eight home games, they’ve held the opposition to 2.6 rpg and a .201 batting average. 10* San Diego

9* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET): I’m fully aware of the fact that the White Sox are on a five-game losing streak and have gone eight consecutive ballgames without scoring more than three runs. But the Twins aren’t scoring either as they’ve failed to top three runs in five of their last six games and scored just three total in the last three. It was a 2-1 final on Friday with the Twins taking the series opener because of two White Sox throwing errors on the same play (in the eighth inning). The road team actually had more hits and total bases. I think they bounce back and end the losing skid on Saturday. A good price on the AL Central favorites.

Dylan Bundy is admittedly off to a good start for Minnesota as he’s won both starts by posting a 0.87 ERA and 0.678 WHIP. First he held Seattle to just one hit over five scoreless innings. Then he limited Boston to one run and five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. But can Bundy keep that up? I think not. This is a pitcher who had only six quality starts all of 2021 and finished with a 6.09 ERA. He figures to not get a lot of run support either. The Twins had scored only one run across 25 innings before busting out for two in the eighth last night.

As I said earlier, the White Sox entered 2022 as the favorites to win the AL Central pennant. Minnesota has not won three in a row this season. Chicago will counter Bundy with Vince Velasquez, who is in his first season with the club. Velasquez has pitched 8 ⅔ innings so far and given up just four earned runs and seven hits. His bullpen has a lower ERA and WHIP compared to its Minnesota counterparts. Velasquez has the edge of having faced Minnesota only one time and it was an inning of relief back in 2015. 9* Chi White Sox

8* Miami (7:10 ET): The Marlins avoided getting swept yesterday by beating St. Louis 5-0. Like a lot of teams around MLB right now, they are struggling to hit (just .232 on the year), but they’ve been doing a good job at run suppression, limiting opponents to a .216 average. They allowed only seven runs in three games vs. the Cardinals and have permitted three runs or less in five of the last six games. Now Friday starter Trevor Rogers has struggled to open the year, but he’s a lefty and Atlanta is hitting just .201 vs. southpaws so far this year. 

The Braves had Thursday off after dropping two of three out in Los Angeles. It’s been a bit of a rocky start for last year’s World Series Champs as they are 6-8 overall with a -14 run differential. That RD is tied for fifth worst in all of MLB with only Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona and Baltimore having been beaten up worse. The Braves have been held to three runs or less nine times already and could only manage a split when they faced the Reds at home to start the year. They scored three runs or fewer in three of the four games.

On paper, it looks as if Atlanta has the edge in tonight’s starting pitching matchup. I mentioned earlier that Rogers has struggled for Miami, but that’s a small sample size and last time out was the worst start of his career. I expect him to bounce back in this spot. He’s yet to allow a home run and was more effective in his first start. The Braves’ Kyle Wright has been impressive in both starts, but has never beaten the Marlins and has a 6.92 ERA in the three starts. This has all the makings of the road team coming in and stealing the series opener. 8* Miami

8* Boston (7:10 ET): Tampa Bay will certainly be out for revenge from last year’s ALDS (lost three games to one), but I like the Red Sox in this one, even though they come in having dropped three of four. Boston has scored only eight runs in those four games, but they shouldn’t need many to get the win tonight as Michael Wacha toes the rubber for them in this series opener. Through two starts, Wacha has been excellent, posting a 0.96 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. The only thing he’s missing is a victory and I think that changes after tonight. 

Tampa Bay has won three of four, including a rain-shortened game at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. That concluded a six-game swing through the Windy City where the Rays ended up going 3-3, losing two of three to the White Sox but taking the series from the Cubs. Overall though, the Rays have dropped 6 of 10 and been held to two runs or less in all six losses. 

Corey Kluber gets the starting nod here for Tampa Bay and he too is without a win despite pitching well in his first two starts. But his numbers aren’t nearly as good as Wacha’s, plus Kluber had the benefit of facing Baltimore in his first start (where he walked four batters). Wacha has allowed just one run and three hits in his 9 ⅓ innings of work this season. The Boston bullpen has also been better than their Tampa Bay counterparts so far. Once again, this matchup has all the makings of the underdog stealing the series opener. 8* Boston

8* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): It’s been a somewhat disastrous start to the season for the Reds, who are a MLB-worst 2-11 and have dropped nine games in a row. But after having success with both Pittsburgh and Texas last night, I’m “feeling my oats” a bit here on Friday and think Cincy can finally get back in the win column. It’s a good spot as they are coming off an off-day while St. Louis was in Miami yesterday, losing 5-0. The Reds are the only team in MLB without a win at home, but they’ve also only played two games so far here at Great American Ballpark. 

It seems inconceivable that a Major League ballclub could be hitting .177 as a group, but that’s where we are at with the Reds right now. Look for them to start hitting tonight however, as Cardinals’ starter Steven Matz has struggled through two starts, posting a 7.27 ERA and 1.499 WHIP. Now he did throw five shutout innings in Milwaukee last weekend. But before that, Matz was roughed up to the tune of seven runs in just three innings by Pittsburgh. The Reds definitely have a shot to break out at the plate tonight. 

St. Louis has been far from an offensive juggernaut themselves thus far and they are hitting just .215 on the road. As I already mentioned, they got shut out yesterday and the game before that saw them score just two runs. They’ve finished with exactly five hits in three of their last four games! Over the L7 games, the Cardinals have scored two runs or less four times. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene has only allowed nine hits in 10 ⅓ IP (3 HRs) and was on the mound for one of the team’s two victories. Important to note that the Reds are coming off a seven-game road trip vs. the Dodgers & Padres, so is it any wonder they are on a losing streak? It ends here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Texas (9:40 ET): Well, we’ve got one last shot here with the Rangers, who are on the verge of being swept in Seattle. Both games have seen them fall behind early. But despite being outscored 10-4 in the two games, Texas has only been outhit 16-14. The Mariners are dealing with a bout of COVID-19 in the clubhouse as three players are out (including HR leader Haniger) as well as manager Scott Servais and two other coaches. It would be pretty shameful if the road team, off to its worst start since 1987, could not earn a win in this series.

I continue to maintain that the Mariners are due for some regression in 2022. They were a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding their Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less eight times. The lineup is now depleted because of COVID-19 and they are unlikely to get the kind of effort we saw on the mound yesterday with Logan Gilbert, who tossed 6 ⅔ scoreless innings. Thursday starter Marco Gonzales has had one good start and one bad one, but Texas knows him well (faced him 16 times previously).

I just don’t think the Mariners can keep up the kind of run suppression that we’ve seen from them thus far. Texas came into this series putting up a healthy number of runs and still averages 5.4 per game on the road. They’ll throw out lefty Taylor Hearn, who has failed to make it past the fourth inning in each of his first two outings, but at least he’s only allowed four total runs thus far. The Rangers are LONG overdue for a win here in Seattle. 8* Texas

8* Pittsburgh (7:40 ET): These teams split a pair of games at PNC Park last week with the Pirates losing the first one by one run (2-1), then bouncing back for a 6-2 win. A series with Milwaukee went predictably poorly for the Bucs as they suffered a three-game sweep at Miller Park and managed just five runs in the process. But it’s not the Brewers’ pitching staff they’ll have to deal with here. Tonight they get to face Mark Leiter Jr, whose first start for the Cubs was an unmitigated disaster. He allowed seven runs over just 3 ⅓ innings. I think the road team comes in and “steals” the serie opener.

Starting today for Pittsburgh will be Bryce Wilson. Despite not having dominant numbers, the Pirates have won both of his starts thus far - as +195 underdogs at St. Louis, then as -110 favorites over Washington. Through six games, the Cubs are hitting only .218 at home, which isn’t good and they could only manage four hits yday in an 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay that was shortened due to rain. While they were at least able to salvage a game, the Cubs actually had fewer hits in their previous series compared to the Pirates.

It would seem logical to write off Leiter’s 2022 debut as a byproduct of pitching at Coors Field. But it would also be fair to say Pittsburgh’s poor hitting from the last series was a byproduct of facing the top of Milwaukee’s rotation. "But I mean, I know we lost three games, but we played pretty damn well in this series,” said manager Derek Shelton. The Pirates are 6-0 the last six times they’ve faced an opponent that scored two or fewer runs in its previous game. They are also 14-6 L20 after being held to two runs or less themselves. The Cubs, who will be a public side here, are just 11-27 L38 games at Wrigley going back to last season. 8* Pittsburgh

7* Run Line Texas (9:40 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am playing the Rangers +1.5. The road team fell behind early last night (3-0 after the first inning) and never could recover, eventually going down by a score of 6-2. The Rangers are now an incomprehensible 2-16 in Seattle the L3 seasons and off to a poor 2-8 overall start to 2022 (worst record in the American League). Tonight’s pitching matchup doesn’t necessarily look favorable either. But, despite all that you’ve just read, I believe the Rangers can at least stay within a run of the Mariners tonight, if not win outright.

Let’s start with the fact that Seattle is due for some serious regression in 2022. They were a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding their Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less seven times. Mitch Haniger, who was leading the Mariners in both home runs and RBI’s, is now on the COVID-19 list, so it was surprising that the team homered three times last night. All six of Seattle’s runs on Tuesday came via the long ball. The number of hits from the two clubs were almost even.

Texas has allowed more runs this season than everyone except Cincinnati, which is a problem, but tonight’s starter Dane Dunning has not been bad so far. Dunning has given up just five runs in his two starts and he was a winner for me his last time out, as a +135 underdog on the ML, against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. Now Logan Gilbert and the Seattle bullpen have been shockingly good thus far, but I’m not convinced that can continue. Texas is still averaging 6.2 rpg on the road and has a higher team batting average than the Mariners. Five of the previous nine meetings between these teams have been decided by one run. 7* Run Line Texas

8* Texas (9:40 ET): The Rangers haven’t won since Thursday, which is when I had them as my 10* Game of the Week. That 10-5 win came in a series opener vs. a division rival (Angels) and is the club’s lone victory over its past six games. Only six teams have scored more runs than Texas has so far, so it’s surprising to see them at 2-7 and in last place in the AL West. Of course, having allowed the most runs among AL teams (three NL teams have given up more runs) hasn’t helped. But I look for a reversal of fortune on Tuesday against the Mariners. 

Seattle comes into this series opener having just taken two of three from Houston here at home. The Mariners have won three of four overall, but before that had dropped four straight. They’ve already been shutout twice this season and have scored four runs or less seven times. Mitch Haniger, who was leading the Mariners in both home runs and RBI’s, is now on the COVID-19 list, so look for the home team to struggle at the plate tonight. I know Texas’ pitching has not been the best, but Opening Day starter Jon Gray is set to toe the rubber for them tonight. 

Gray, signed away from Colorado in the offseason, allowed just three hits on Opening Day vs. Toronto, a game the Rangers’ bullpen blew. He missed his next scheduled start due to a blister, but is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two prior starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle was a HUGE overachiever in 2021, exceeding its Pythagorean Win Expectation by 15, easily the most in the league. So I anticipate some serious regression in 2022. Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young last year for Toronto, has a 4.73 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in his first two starts for the M’s, who will not offer Ray the same support his old club did. 8* Texas

analysis soon

8* Toronto (7:10 ET): Love the spot for the Blue Jays here as they had Monday off whereas Boston did not. The Red Sox lost 8-3 to the Twins, putting a damper on Patriots Day, and leaving them with a series split. Not since starting the season 0-2 have the Red Sox dropped B2B games, but they are the inferior team in this matchup and that makes Toronto a bargain at ‘plus money.’ The Jays’ offense, despite what the numbers say about the road, has been strong so far and I look for them to come into Fenway and take the series opener. 

Toronto is the favorite of many, including myself, to win the American League East this season. In fact, as of right now, I project them to finish with the most wins in the entire American League! This is a team that finished with a better run differential than either the Red Sox or Yankees last season and there was a nine-game gap between their actual and expected number of wins, which made them the biggest “underachiever” in all of MLB in 2021. The team is stronger coming into this season. 

It will be Yusei Kikuchi getting the nod Monday for the Jays. His first start did not go particularly well, but he’s had a week off to get back on track. Kikuchi will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi, who has given up two home runs in each of his first two starts. The Blue Jays rank third in MLB in home runs (14), so look out for that. Toronto’s bullpen has been better than Boston’s so far and this game could come down to that. Lengthening the advantage is that the Red Sox pen worked 4 ⅓ innings yesterday. 8* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (6:10 ET): Let’s try this one again. The Phillies have now dropped four in a row, the last two losses coming here in Miami. They fell behind early last night, 4-0 after two innings, and eventually went down by a final of 7-1. That’s not what I was looking for, having taken the visitors. I just can’t see them being swept this weekend though and at plus money, the Phils are a good value in this series. I’ll call for Saturday starter Ranger Suarez to bounce back here from a rough first outing 

Suarez gave up three runs in just 2 ⅔ IP on Monday, but his team was able to bail him out and come from behind for a 5-4 win over the Mets. That’s the last time Philly won a game. One of the reasons I expect Suarez to pitch better in this spot is how he fared the last time he faced the Marlins. Last October, he shut them out for seven innings and got the win. In fact, Suarez is currently working on a 12 inning scoreless streak vs. the Marlins, the entirety of which has come here in Miami. 

Don’t forget what I said yesterday either. The Phillies have generally been outhitting their opponents this season. Yesterday was just the second game all season that they ended up with fewer hits compared to the opposing team. Miami’s offensive display on Friday was an aberration as the seven runs scored marked a season-high. Trevor Rogers gets the start here for the home team. He took the loss in his first start and had only three strikeouts in 5 IP. Rhys Hoskins has had Rogers’ number in the past and JT Realmuto (went 4 for 4 on Thursday) will be back in the Phillies’ lineup tonight. They are the play. 10* Philadelphia

9* St. Louis (8:10 ET): The Cardinals fell behind early on Thursday, going down 4-0 by the end of the third inning. That was pretty much “all she wrote” as the Redbirds had no answer for Brewers’ starter Brandon Woodruff, who shut them out for five innings and gave up three hits. There was a chance in the third inning, down only 2-0, but the Cards left the bases loaded. It’s been a relatively “light” schedule thus far for St. Louis due to a couple rainouts, but they’ve yet to lose B2B games. I think that trend holds after tonight. 

Milwaukee has now won three straight following a 1-3 start, but keep in mind two of those wins were over lowly Baltimore. The Brewers have yet to score more than five runs in a game this year. Friday starter Freddy Peralta was pretty dreadful in his first outing of 2022, giving up three runs in four innings to the Cubs. The Brew Crew were lucky to come back and win that game 5-4. Peralta walked four batters and gave up a HR. The L3 times he’s faced St. Louis, Peralta has allowed 10 ER in 10 IP. 

Now Miles Mikolas also struggled a bit in his first start, giving up a couple of runs (on six hits) in 3 ⅔ IP vs. Pittsburgh. But like Peralta, Mikolas was fortunate that his team got the win, 6-2 over Pittsburgh. Due to injury, Mikolas made just nine starts last season, but he was sharp in the two vs. the Brew Crew. Remember that yesterday was the home opener here in Milwaukee, so enthusiasm will be down for Friday. I think the door is open for the road team to come in and “steal one” tonight. 9* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): After starting the season 3-1, the Phillies have - all of a sudden - dropped three in a row including a 4-3 decision here in Miami last night. Last night’s defeat was a tough one for Philly as the outhit the Fish 11-6. In fact, the Phils have only been outhit in one game so far, a 4-1 loss to Oakland last Sunday. That was the first start for Zach Eflin, who will get the baseball again tonight, and he pitched well, delivering four shutout innings of two-hit ball. I really like the value on the road team tonight. 

Miami ended its own three-game skid with Wednesday’s victory. We just haven’t seen much offense though from the Marlins yet, as they most runs they’ve scored in any game is five and that was the season opener. The offense has produced just 14 hits the L3 games, though they have drawn 12 walks. But they are batting a collective .200 thus far and that’s not going to get it done. Starter Pablo Lopez was sharp in his first outing of 2022, the team’s only other win besides yday, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance. 

Eflin was strong in Spring Training, posting a 0.96 ERA. Based on that and the four shutout innings we saw vs. Oakland, it’s shaping up to be a promising season for him. With the Marlins struggling to hit, this looks like a good matchup. The Marlins seemed to have an “added boost” yesterday with a larger than usual crowd (it was the home opener) but that won’t be the case every day. Again, love the value here as I’ve got the Phillies rated as the better team. 10* Philadelphia

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers are just 1-4 on the young season after dropping their first two home games (to Colorado). They were ML favorites for both those games, so coming out 0-2 was a disappointment. Texas’ first series, which was in Toronto, saw them blow a huge lead on Opening Day but make their own grandiose comeback in the third game to avoid the sweep. Given that the Rangers have scored 28 runs in five games, you’d think they’d have more than one win. But they don’t. Look for them to pick up a win here in the series opener vs. the Angels.

The Angels are now 3-2 on the season as they were far more successful than the Rangers in their interleague series at home to start the week. The Halos took both games from Miami, although they finished with only four hits on Tuesday. This will be the first road game for Los Angeles and they turn to Shohei Ohtani, who allowed just one run and four hits in 4 ⅔ IP in his first start. But going back to the end of last season, the Angels have lost Ohtani’s L4 starts.

Texas counters with Dane Dunning, who is also making his second start of 2022. His first time out Dunning allowed three runs across five innings and the Rangers lost 4-3 to the Blue Jays. Dunning did not factor into the decision. He was a much more effective pitcher at home last season (3.05 ERA) and the last time he faced the Halos here in Arlington, he held them to one run and three hits in a win. I feel the Rangers are due for a win here and the Angels are overrated on the road because of Ohtani. 10* Texas

7* Texas (8:05 ET): Let’s try with the Rangers again as they SHOULD have won yesterday’s home opener vs. the Rockies. Texas took a 3-1 lead after five innings, but then gave it away by allowing one run in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Even worse, the runs allowed in the seventh and eighth innings were both unearned, coming after errors. After tying the game in the bottom of the ninth (Willie Calhoun solo HR), the Rangers then lost in the 10th on a replay review. 

Colorado is now 3-1 after surprisingly taking two of three from the Dodgers to start the season. But let’s not forget that the Rockies have been a dreadful road team for years, so I can’t see them making it B2B wins in Arlington. The series vs. the Dodgers was at Coors Field. Starting tonight for the road team will be Chad Kuhl, whose first 100 big league starts came with the Pirates. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in eight road starts last season. I can’t see the Rockies’ bats nor the bullpen continuing to produce the way it has so far either. 

Texas will turn to a familiar face in Martin Perez, who is back for his second stint with the team. After spending his first seven seasons here, Perez spent the last three with the Twins and Red Sox. He’s not a dominant starter, but he is the third straight lefty Colorado will have seen. I expect Perez to pitch well in this spot. He should also get plenty of support from a lineup that has scored 27 runs, second most in MLB, in four games. 7* Texas

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): I called the Blue Jays the better team yesterday, when I took them, and certainly that assessment has not changed after they provided me with an easy 3-0 win over the Yankees in the series opener. The Jays outhit the Yanks 10-4 and the fact they won only scoring three runs should be taken as a positive as this lineup, arguably the best in all of baseball, had produced 20 runs in the first three games. I’m expecting more production at the plate tonight, thus Toronto is once again a 10* call. 

The Blue Jays missed the playoffs last year, despite a 91-71 record, as they finished fourth in the AL East. But there were some underlying metrics that suggested this team was better than both the Yankees and Red Sox, who ended up being the two Wild Card teams. Toronto had a better run differential than both those teams and thus a higher “expected” win total. Coming into 2022, I make the Jays the favorites to win the AL East. Meanwhile, the Yankees had no real significant upgrades to speak of in the offseason. 

The Yankees have scored just seven runs in their last three games and I see them struggling again tonight against Yusei Kikuchi, who makes his first start for the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was Seattle’s lone All-Star selection last season. Though he faltered down the stretch, that wasn’t a good Mariners team he was pitching for. He’ll like the run support he gets in Toronto. Three of the last eight times NY has been shutout, it’s been by the Blue Jays. Jameson Taillon (yesterday) is the only NY starter to make it through five innings so far as the team has fallen behind every game. Tuesday’s starter Nestor Cortes has only faced Toronto once, a 6-4 loss where he allowed two HRs. 10* Toronto

9* NY Mets (6:45 ET): It was a BRUTAL loss last night for the Mets here in Philly as they blew a 4-0 lead by giving up five runs in the home half of the eighth inning. They had taken a 3-0 advantage after the first inning and it looked like that was all they’d need as the Phillies were rather “toothless” at the plate most of the game, producing only four hits through seven innings. But it was not to be as the Mets’ bullpen could not hold the lead. Even worse was an inability to take advantage of three Phillies errors. 

But I like the Mets to bounce back Tuesday behind Tylor Megill, who threw five shutout innings of three-hit ball in his first start of 2022. The Mets won that game (Opening Day) 5-1 over Washington. The team now sits at 3-2 overall after suffering B2B losses. Both Mets’ losses this season have seen the bullpen implode in the eighth inning. I don’t think that’s going to happen again here tonight. Take away the eighth inning of the last two games and Mets’ pitching has permitted just four runs all season!

The Phillies turn to Zack Wheeler tonight. He’s yet to make a start this season after finishing as the runner-up in last year’s Cy Young voting. Wheeler has been dealing with shoulder soreness throughout the Spring and didn’t even make a single Spring Training start. That’s a concern. I really like the Mets, especially at this price, coming off a game they clearly “should have” won. Making this an even bigger revenge spot is the fact the Mets have lost seven of eight to the Phils, despite never allowing more than five runs in any of those games. 9* NY Mets

9* San Diego (9:45 ET): The Padres were a big disappointment in 2021, but have started ‘22 with three wins in four games. Really, they should have taken all four from the D’backs, but lost the season opener on a three-run walkoff HR (after shutting Arizona out for the first eight innings). Starting pitching was very solid for SD as it got 13 no-hit innings from Yu Darvish and Sean Manaea, plus three shutout innings from emergency starter Nabil Crismatt yesterday. Up next: the Giants, who won the NL West last season and took two of three to open the year.

The Giants faced Miami on Opening Weekend and didn’t produce a ton of offense, scoring just 10 runs total in the three games. Six of those runs were scored on Opening Day and all three games were decided by one run. SF was outhit in the series, including 11-6 on Sunday. All things considered, the Giants should feel fortunate to have won two of three. After finishing last season at +45.8 units, an astronomical profit, I’ve got SF as a clear regression club for 2022. 

Looking at the NL West this season, the Dodgers are the clear favorites and I think the Padres will outpace the Giants for second and a Wild Card. For today’s series opener, we’ve got Nick Martinez starting for the Padres against Alex Wood for the Giants. Martinez has not pitched in the big leagues since 2017, but is coming off an impressive stint in Japan. Even without Fernando Tatis, the Padres have not struggled to score runs (10 yesterday) and look for them to get to Wood, who is not going to match 2021’s numbers. 9* San  Diego

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Both the Blue Jays and Yankees had a chance to sweep their opening series on Sunday and each failed. The Blue Jays were 12-6 losers to Texas yesterday. Now they cross the border for the first time, to play a Yankees team that was a 4-3 loser to Boston on Sunday Night Baseball. Though they get to stay at home, the quicker turnaround between series puts the Yankees at a slight disadvantage Monday. Not to mention, they must deal with a Toronto lineup that is arguably the strongest in all of baseball. Look for the visitors to take this series opener. 

It will be 24-year old Alek Manoah going today for Toronto. Last season, in 20 starts, he went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and became the first starter in MLB history to start his career by allowing four or fewer hits in 10 consecutive starts. The team was victorious in 16 of those 20 starts, including each of the eight. Manoah started twice against the Yankees last year, both times here in the Bronx, and the Jays won both games. 

The Toronto lineup scored 20 runs in the first three games, which should be a sign of things to come. Look for them to jump on Yankees’ starter Jameson Taillon. The Yankees fell behind the Red Sox in all three games over the weekend with every starter allowing multiple runs before the end of the second inning. I think Toronto is going to be the better team this season, so with the edge in starting pitching and a better lineup, they are an easy call to take this series opener. 10* Toronto

9* Texas (4:05 ET): The Rangers, after pulling off a five-run rally to avoid getting swept on Sunday, now open a short two-game interleague set against Colorado. Don’t let Texas’ 1-2 record fool you; no team has scored more runs this year as the Rangers have crossed the plate 23 times. They were up 7-0 on Toronto on Opening Day. Today is the home opener, which should provide a boost of optimism and you can forget just how dreadful the Rockies were away from home last season. I’ve got the home team winning comfortably here. 

Colorado opened its season by surprisingly taking two of three from the Dodgers. But that was at Coors Field. On the road last year, the Rockies were a horrific 26-54. Their struggles away from home are nothing new and have plagued the franchise throughout its existence. Only Pittsburgh scored fewer runs away from home last season. Even with the DH, I don’t expect the Rockies to put up many runs this afternoon as they only scored 15 runs in the first three games of the young season. 

Taylor Hearn will get the baseball for Texas today. He was 6-6 last year and had a respectable 1.28 WHIP. A big key for the Rangers’ pitchers this year is that they should expect more run support than they got a season ago. In the offseason, the team added Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to the lineup. We’ve already seen an increase in offensive output. Look for it to continue today against Colorado’s Austin Gomber, who had a 4-10 TSR and 6.20 ERA on the road in 2021. 9* Texas

10* Boston (7:08 ET): The Red Sox beat the Yankees in LY’s Wild Card Game, but they’ve had some real difficulty beating their rival in regular season play going back to last season. It’s now eight straight regular season losses to the Yanks following an 0-2 start to 2021. It was an extra inning affair on Opening Day as the Sox lost 6-5 in 11 on a Josh Donaldson walk-off single. That was after scoring three runs in the first inning of NY starter Gerrit Cole. Yesterday again saw the Red Sox open the scoring, taking a 2-0 lead in the second, but it was not to be as they lost 4-2. 

The Red Sox have one more hit than the Yankees in this series. Obviously, the LAST thing they want to do is start the season by getting swept. So I’m loving the price here on the visitors in Sunday’s series finale on ESPN. Boston will hand the baseball to Tanner Houck tonight. Houck both started and came out of the pen last year. He struck out 87 batters in 69 IP and had a 1.13 WHIP. Almost all of the Yankees’ runs scored in this series have come via the HR. As long as Houck keeps the ball in the park, he’ll be in good shape. 

The Yankees counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went 6-7 in 30 starts last season. He made just nine quality starts. Montgomery had mixed results vs. Boston in 2021 with a 2-3 team start record. The heart of the Red Sox has produced in this series, but they got an 0 for 5 day at the plate from their leadoff man yesterday and the bottom three in the order went a combined 0 for 11. Look for better results at the plate tonight. 10* Boston

8* LA Angels (9:07 ET): I’m “switching sides” in this AL West weekend series. Last night, I cashed the Astros as my 10* AL West Game of the Month and they romped to 13-6 victory. However, that score was actually a bit misleading as the teams were nearly even in hits (14-13 edge to the Astros), but the difference was an eight-run explosion by the road team in the top of the seventh. The Angles very nearly went up 3-1 in the first, but had a runner thrown out at the plate. Now 0-2 on the young season, the home team is pretty desperate. I’ll call for them to get their first ‘W’ of 2022 here. 

We have a very interesting starting pitching matchup for tonight. It’s Justin Verlander vs. Noah Syndergaard. A few years ago, this would have been considered a battle of Cy Young candidates. But Verlander didn’t pitch at all last season (Tommy John surgery) and Syndergaard only made two 2021 starts after missing all of 2020 for the same reason (Tommy John). I know it’s difficult to put faith in either starter here, but I’m giving the nod to Syndergaard. 

Yes, I went with the Astros Friday, but here the pitching matchup isn’t so clearly in their favor. Coming off an embarrassing loss and needing a win over the next two games to avoid what would be an embarrassing four-game sweep to start the year, the Angels are a good value here. Ohtani and Trout went a combined 1 for 8 at the plate yesterday and you’ve got to figure they’ll do better tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* Cleveland (4:10 ET): Cleveland will be looking to win its first game as the “Guardians” as they continue their series with Kansas City Saturday afternoon. These teams opened the season on Thursday (yday was an off-day) with the Royals prevailing 3-1. The Guardians actually outhit KC, 7-5, but fell victim to a two-run double from Royals’ rookie Bobby Witt in the bottom of the eighth that was the difference in the game. I believe the road team bounces back in this spot.

Cleveland was 14-5 vs. Kansas City last season and is still 10-4 its last 14 games at Kauffman Stadium. They’ll be sending Zach Plesac to the bump Saturday afternoon. He started three times vs. the Royals in 2021 and had a 2-1 TSR. Considering that the Royals had just three hits through seven innings on Thursday, I think it’s quite reasonable to expect Plesac to pitch well in this spot. He threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball (no walks) in one of his starts in this park last season. 

The Guardians’ hitting remains a big question mark entering the 2022 season. But look for them to get to Brad Keller, who will be Saturday’s starter for Kansas City. Keller is coming off a pretty brutal 2021 that saw him post a 5.45 ERA and 1.668 WHIP. He had just nine quality starts (in 26 trips to the mound) and his record at home was 2-6. This is a good price on Cleveland as they look for their first win of the season. 10* Cleveland

9* Houston (9:38 ET): Guess it’s a case of an “early season discount,” but I’m not entirely sure why the Astros (the AL West favorites) are priced like this against the Angels. Houston won yesterday, 3-1, as the Halos managed just four hits and six total bases. It was the Astros’ 10th consecutive win on Opening Day, matching a major league record. I look for them to make it two straight wins to open the season. 

Jake Odorizzi will get the nod here for the road team. Odorizzi had just two quality starts last season, but finished well with a 2.93 ERA his L7. I expect him to get more run support than Framber Valdez did last night. Let’s not forget that the Astros are clearly the best team in this division this season. They only won the pennant by five games LY, but had a +205 run differential and no other AL West team was better than +56 and that was Oakland, who tore their roster down in the offseason. 

The Angels always seem overvalued because Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are on the roster. Ohtani pitched yesterday and pitched well, but it still wasn’t enough. Trout was 1 for 4 with a ninth inning single in his first game after missing the final 4 ½ months of last season due to injury. Friday starter Patrick Sandoval was worse at home than he was on the road in 2021, posting just one win all season in Anaheim. Houston beat him the lone time they saw him. By the way, Odorizzi has a 1.64 ERA here at Angels Stadium. 9* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (3:10 ET): Please note that this play is on the run line, which means I am backing the Orioles +1.5. Last season, Baltimore finished an incomprehensible 1-18 head to head vs. Tampa Bay. That accounted for nearly one-third of the 48-game difference in the standings between the two AL East clubs (first and last). But now it’s a new season and we might as well give the O’s a try while there’s still a hint of optimism in the air. Their best pitcher is on the mound Opening Day and I expect the O’s to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

 So we’re going to rely heavily on Orioles’ starter John Means in this one. Means posted respectable numbers for a last place team in 2021, particularly on the road where he had a 2.84 ERA and 0.899 WHIP.  He had an 0-5 team start record vs. TB last season. But again, I think this is a great early season opportunity to back the underdog as their long overdue for a win over their AL East rival and Means should keep the Rays’ offense in check. The bullpen can only get better. 

The Rays send Shane McClanahan to the bump on Friday. He had a 4-0 TSR vs. Baltimore in 2021. But note Means had the slightly lower WHIP and the two lefties had comparable ERAs. Not surprisingly, the Orioles had the worst record in one-run games in the AL. They are probably due for some better results in that regard this season, but just to be safe I’ll stick with the RL. Means was a much better pitcher in the 1H of last season, posting a 2.28 ERA before the All-Star Break. 8* Run Line Baltimore

10* Over Padres/D’backs (9:45 ET): New for 2022 is a universal DH across Major League Baseball. So no more pitchers coming up to the plate in National League games. Theoretically, that should lead to an increase in scoring across the Senior Circuit. Time to put this theory to the test on Opening Day when the Padres take on the D’backs. San Diego was a big disappointment last season, finishing 79-83. They were SUPPOSED to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West pennant. Meanwhile, no one expected much from Arizona in 2021 and sure enough the D’backs lost 110 games. Only the Pirates and Orioles had worse run differentials. 

I am expecting the Padres to bounce back this year and earn a Wild Card spot (remember there are now THREE WC spots up for grabs). They actually had a positive run differential (+21) last season, so they were better than their record. Offensively, they weren’t where they wanted to be, but they did finish top 10 in OBP. Now Fernando Tatis Jr suffered a wrist fracture and will miss three months, which is a significant blow. But I still expect San Diego to put plenty of runs on the board here as Madison Bumgarner (who they know well), tonight’s starter for Arizona, has seen better days. 

Arizona gave up the most runs in the NL (893) last season and second most in MLB (only Baltimore allowed more). Bumgarner had a rough finish (1-6 TSR final seven starts) and ended up with a 4.67 ERA. Now we’re also going to need the D’backs to score some runs tonight and thankfully they’re up against Yu Darvish, who also had a poor finish to 2021 and was much worse on the road than he was at Petco Park. Darvish started twice at Chase Field last season and those outings did NOT go well (both went Over) as he allowed a total of 10 runs and lasted just 2 ⅔ IP each time. 10* Over Padres/D’backs

8* Milwaukee (2:20 ET): The Brewers come into the 2022 season as the consensus choice to win the National League Central. They won the pennant last season (95-67), but unfortunately ran into a hot Atlanta team at the wrong team in the LDS. This season begins with a trip to Wrigley Field, to face a Cubs team that projects as the third best team in the division. The Brew Crew had little trouble with the Cubbies last year, taking 15 of the 19 head to head matchups, and I expect more of the same here on Opening Day.

The Cubs finished fourth in the NL Central last season, 24 games back of the Brewers. They were outscored by 134 runs. Only the Pirates and D’backs, two last place teams, got beat up worse. Any upward mobility in the standings this year would only be because of Cincinnati, last year’s third place finisher, regressing. Most projection systems have the Cubs finishing with a losing record; they have all the makings of a 75-win team that will be out of contention by September, if not before.

The Brew Crew may have the best starting rotation in the majors and it’s anchored by last year’s Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, who gets the baseball Thursday afternoon. Burnes led all of MLB in ERA, FIP and KW ratio last season. He had 58 strikeouts before issuing a single walk. He handled the Cubs with a 3-0 TSR, allowing just three runs in 20 IP and 36 strikeouts. All three runs came the third time he faced them. The Cubs have a weak lineup this year and starter Kyle Hendricks won’t match Burnes on Opening Day. Hendricks had a 5.24 ERA at home in 2021 and had a 1-3 TSR vs. Milwaukee. 8* Milwaukee

10* Houston (8:09 ET): I called for the Astros to stay alive after Game 5 and they did just that. It didn’t look good early when the Braves’ Adam Duvall hit a grand slam in the first inning to give his team a 4-0 lead. At that point, the entire city of Atlanta had to be dreaming of their World Series win since 1995. But it was not to be. Houston’s bats FINALLY woke up, slowly chipping away at the lead and eventually overtaking the Braves for a 9-5 victory. Now they get to go back home where the DH is again in play. 

The Astros led all of MLB in runs per game during the regular season. The big story in the losses in both Games 3 and 4 was the offense going dormant. Part of that was the loss of the DH, though it’s not entirely fair to pin the whole decline on “National League rules.” Especially when the bats woke up in Game 5. But being back at home seems significant for the Astros as they are 44-20 the L64 times they’ve been favored here. They are also 59-22 L81 games following an off-day. Prior to Game 5, all of the Braves’ losses this postseason had occurred on the road. 

It looks as if Luis Garcia will be the Game 6 starter for the Astros. He pitched well in Game 3, but no one was going to beat Atlanta’s Ian Anderson that day. As I stated in my Game 3 writeup (took the Braves), Garcia’s numbers are a lot better at home (2.71 ERA/1.004 WHIP) than on the road (4.57/1.415). Well, now he’s pitching at Minute Maid Park. Atlanta’s Max Fried was as hot as any pitcher in the second half of the regular season, but has really struggled in B2B starts (both on the road), giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅔ IP. Look for the Astros to force a Game 7 (this play stands even if there is a change in starting pitchers). 10* Houston

10* Houston (8:15 ET): The Braves are just one win away from their first World Series trophy in a quarter century, but I’ll be backing the Astros as their season is on the line. For much of Game 4 last night, it appeared as if Houston was on its way to tying this series up at two games apiece. They led 2-0 going into the sixth inning. But after giving up a run in the sixth, it was back to back homers from Atlanta’s Swanson and Soler that dramatically turned the game. Things ended up 3-2 in the Braves’ favor. 

In what could be the final World Series played without a universal DH, the Astros are really struggling to score runs under “NL rules” (which state that the pitcher must come up to bat). The highest scoring team in MLB has plated only two runs in the two games here in Atlanta. But I’m counting on there being a bit of an “offensive surge” tonight. With Charlie Morton injured, the Braves are rapidly running out of pitchers. It is not known who will start for them in Game 5, but I don’t care if it’s Max Fried (on short rest) or another “bullpen game.” My money is on the road team. 

The Astros will be going with Framber Valdez, who did not pitch well in Game 1. But, rather curiously, Valdez does have better numbers on the road this season. His ERA and WHIP are 2.70 and 1.075 away from home as opposed to 4.40 and 1.563 in H-town. He tossed a dominant eight innings (only one run and three hits allowed) in Boston back in the ALCS. The Astros have lost three in a row only one time since the start of September. I’m counting on them to send this series back home. 10* Houston

10* Atlanta (8:09 ET): The Braves did what they needed to do in Houston, winning one of the two games, and now return home where they are a perfect 5-0 in the playoffs. I had the Braves in Game 1 when they “shocked” the Astros 6-2, jumping all over them early (it was 5-0 by the third inning). I did not have a play on Game 2 when Houston bounced back with a 7-2 win. Heading into Game 3, I think the Braves have several key advantages, most of them having to do with things taking place in Atlanta. The home team is the play tonight. 

Houston’s league-leading offense takes a hit here because the game is taking place in a NL park. That means no DH and the pitcher must come up to bat. Though there is Interleague Play throughout the course of the regular season, the Astros’ pitchers are not used to having to hit. I counted 10 games where Houston played without the DH this season. They scored just 42 runs, which is well below what they averaged with the DH in the lineup. Atlanta is obviously more accustomed to being without the DH, so the rules are in their favor for the next three games. 

Also in the Braves’ favor is tonight’s starting pitching matchup. Ian Anderson has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and has been excellent in the postseason with a 2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. Houston is going with Luis Garcia, who has struggled in the postseason (9.64 ERA, 1.606 WHIP) and is also not the same pitcher on the road that he is at home. Garcia’s ERA rises to 4.67 away from home, which is a big change from 2.71 at home. In his lone playoff road start, he allowed five runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 10* Atlanta

7* Run Line Atlanta (8:09 ET): First off, please note that I am taking the RUN LINE here with the Braves +1.5. The Braves have not beaten the Astros since 2014. But of course that is highly misleading as the teams haven’t even played since 2017. The Astros won all four meetings that year (‘17), so there’s a great sense of unfamiliarity between the clubs that once upon a time (pre-1994 realignment) were in the same division (NL West). Houston is the favorite and is making its third appearance in the Fall Classic in the last five years. (They’ve been in the ALCS each of the L5 seasons). For them, this series is about redemption as their 2017 WS win is generally thought to be tainted by a cheating scandal.

Atlanta is making its first World Series appearance since 1999. That’s hard for me, a teenager for much of the ‘90s, to wrap my head around. The Braves were a WS mainstay in that decade, making it there FIVE times (but only winning once). Over the last 20 years, they’ve been a playoff mainstay, but never made it this far. It is incredible to think that this team had a LOSING record entering August! Since that time, they have a 43-21 record. It would be (very) foolish to discount their chances of winning this series as they just unseated the defending WS Champs (and the team I considered to be the best in baseball), the Dodgers. 

Unlike that series with the Dodgers, the Braves do NOT have home field advantage here. But looking at the starting pitching matchup for Game 1, I think they do have an edge. Charlie Morton has a lower ERA/WHIP than does Framber Valdez and his numbers are better on the road while Valdez’s are worse at home. Valdez did have the one dominant start in the ALCS, but hadn’t been all that good leading up to that. Morton has a 3-2 TSR his L5 starts with the two losses both coming by a single run. The Braves getting to use a DH in Houston is an added bonus. I don’t think that they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 7* Run Line Atlanta

THERE HAS BEEN A PITCHING CHANGE FOR THE DODGERS, WHO ARE NOW STARTING BUEHLER IN PLACE OF SCHERZER. THE PLAY STILL STANDS!

10* LA Dodgers (5:08 ET): Dave Roberts’ decision to go with a “bullpen game” in Game 5 paid off as the Dodgers stayed alive with an easy 11-2 victory. We all thought that would lead to Max Scherzer starting Game 6. But as you know, that is no longer the case. Walker Buehler will get the nod instead and that is just fine by me. This play was always more about the team (Dodgers) than it was the starting pitcher. By the way, Buehler is a fine option as he has gone 16-5 (24-12 TSR) in his 36 starts this season with a 2.64 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. 

The Game 5 result had to be completely deflating for the Braves. Remember that they had their ace (Max Fried) on the mound while the Dodgers went with the bullpen game. Fried lasted only 4 ⅔ innings and gave up five runs on eight hits. The Dodgers’ league-leading offense ended up putting 11 runs and 17 hits on the board, led by Chris Taylor’s THREE home runs. Now the Dodgers will face Ian Anderson, who lasted only three innings when he started Game 2. Anderson wasn’t much better in his lone regular season start against the Dodgers as he gave up four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 

The Dodgers have now won seven straight elimination games going back to last season’s World Series run. Also remember what team had baseball’s best regular season run differential (they did). This all has to feel like a terrible sense of “deja vu” for Atlanta, who blew a 3-1 series lead to the Dodgers in LY’s NLCS. This is all about taking what I feel is the best team in baseball. We’re heading for a Game 7. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:08 ET): Over bettors are having a “field day” in both LCS, but particularly here in the American League where EVERY game has gone their way. You certainly don’t have to remind me as I had the Under in the last game, which was still on track to be a winner entering the ninth inning. But Houston just “had” to put two “meaningless” runs on the board in that final frame (with two outs!) to make it a 9-1 final. It was even more painful if you have the Under in Game 3 when the Astros put SEVEN runs on the board in the top of the ninth (again, with two outs). The Under is not only 5-0 in this series, but 7-0 the L7 times they’ve met and 8-0 in each of the teams’ last eight games. 

Maybe it’s just me being stubborn, but I feel this is where the Over streak comes to an end. Boston had just three hits in Game 5 and only five hits in Game 4. That was at Fenway Park where they are averaging 5.8 runs per game for the season. On the road, that average dips to 4.5. So much of the Red Sox scoring in this series has come from a record-setting number of grand slams. But those days are over. The Under just so happens to be 6-1 in the Astros’ last seven LCS home games. 

There certainly hasn’t been a whole lot of scoring in the early innings of the L2 games. It was 1-0 (Houston) after five in Game 5 and 2-1 (Boston) entering the eighth in Game 4. Starting Game 6 for the Red Sox will be Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a total of just six runs his L4 starts (all team wins) in 17 ⅔ IP. Eovaldi will be opposed by Luis Garcia, who has seen the Under go 11-3 in his home starts thanks in large part to a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Yes, he had the disastrous start here vs. Boston in Game 2. I do not see history repeating itself. Eovaldi allowed just three runs in 5 ⅓ IP in that game, which is realistic to be repeated. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros.

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): Many people (myself included) considered the Dodgers-Giants LDS to be the “real” NLCS as it was a matchup of the teams with the two best records from the regular season. After advancing, the Dodgers had to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making it back to the World Series. But Atlanta obviously had other ideas as a team that had only 88 regular season wins (fewest of any division winner) is now one win away from the Fall Classic. But if this sounds familiar, that’s because the Braves also led LY’s NLCS three games to one. We all remember what happened next. 

With their season on the brink, the Dodgers are going to use a “bullpen game” tonight. Given what’s at stake, it seems a bit risky but obviously manager Dave Roberts is comfortable enough with his team and knows he can then have Max Scherzer waiting in the wings for Game 6. Last night was the first game of the series where the Dodgers did NOT enjoy a two-run lead at any point. They were never in it, failing behind 5-0 early and it was over from there. The Braves hit four home runs, something I don’t see happening again tonight. 

Prior to losing Games 1 and 2, the Dodgers had only dropped B2B games one time since the start of August. They have not lost B2B home games since late July. That and a sweep at the hands of the Giants on Memorial Day Weekend are the only times since the start of May where the Dodgers have lost two straight at home. I know they’re going against Max Fried tonight, but this is the #1 team in baseball and it would be a mistake to write them off (see 2020). 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (5:08 ET): These teams must REALLY love to go Over. Last night saw the Astros stun the Fenway faithful with a seven-run ninth inning. That not only evened this ALCS up at two games apiece, but sent Game 4 Over the total by one run. Every game in the series has now gone Over. Both teams are 7-0 Over their L7 games. They are 6-0 Over the L6 times they’ve faced one another. This “madness” has to come to an end sooner rather than later. Right? 

We’ve got two lefties starting Game 5 - Framber Valdez for Houston and Chris Sale for Boston. This is a rematch from Game 1 when neither southpaw was very effective. Both were pulled after just 2 ⅔ innings. But Valdez has better numbers on the road than he does at home, namely a 2.88 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. Sale has better numbers at home (2.48 ERA, 1.276 WHIP) than he does on the road. So expect both guys to pitch better than they did in Game 1. Valdez had a 1.59 ERA vs. Boston while Sale had a 2.20 ERA vs. Houston (prior to Game 1). 

Obviously, condolences are in order to anyone that may have had the Under last night. That bet looked like a surefire winner for most of the game. It was 2-1 going into eighth and 2-2 going into the ninth with an O/U line of 10.0. But we saw what happens with Boston when they’re not hitting grand slams every night. They finished with just five hits and the only two runs scored both came in the first inning. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 times the Red Sox have faced a left-handed starter. We’re obviously overdue for an Under in this series. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

8* LA Dodgers (5:08 ET): While the Dodgers are shockingly down 0-2 to the Braves in the NLCS, they have to feel like they could have won at least one, if not BOTH games in Atlanta. Games 1 and 2 were each decided by one run with the Braves winning both in walkoff fashion. The Dodgers out hit them 10-6 in Game 1 and then twice blew a 2-run lead in Game 2. This is just the second time LA has suffered B2B losses since the start of August. Over the L5 months, there have been just four occasions where they’ve lost three or more in a row. The last time they lost three straight to the same team was early July. 

So I’ve got to back the Dodgers here in Game 3 as they return home and have Walker Buehler on the hill. Buehler has had a truly dominant year, going 16-4 in the regular season with a 2.47 ERA. Overall, the team is 23-12 in his L35 starts this season. Buehler is not only 2-0 (with a 2.79 ERA) in three career regular season starts vs. the Braves, but he dominated in LY’s NLCS as well, holding them to one run in 11 IP. Do not forget that the Dodgers also faced an 0-2 series deficit in LY’s NLCS. They overcame it despite no home games. They are 60-24 this year at Chavez Ravine. 

I think most would agree that the Dodgers’ biggest issue in this series has been a lack of “clutch hitting.” They are just 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position, striking out nine times in that situation. I’m going to call for that to turn around today. This team is too good offensively to continue struggling like that. Charlie Morton starts Game 3 for the Braves and while he’s had a good year, as a member of the Rays he struggled against the Dodgers in LY’s World Series. Furthermore, let’s not forget visiting teams are hitting just .206 this year at Dodger Stadium. So the Braves are going to be the ones struggling to score runs here. Laying the hefty price is certainly justified for Game 3. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Under Astros/Red Sox (8:07 ET): With the ALCS now set to move to Fenway Park, I’m going to call for the Over trend we’ve seen from both clubs to come to an end in Game 3. The first two games in Houston obviously both went Over as have the L5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox. However, let us not forget about the real rarity that ensued in Game 2 as the Red Sox hit not one, but TWO grand slams in the 9-5 victory. After the grand slams were hit (and the game was essentially no longer in doubt), the Red Sox managed only two hits the remainder of the game. Take the Under in Game 3. 

How rare is it to hit two grand slams in the same postseason game? Well before Boston did it on Saturday, it had NEVER happened before in MLB history! They were just the 6th team EVER to record grand slams in the first two innings of a MLB game. But I think the Astros have their man to slow the Red Sox down in Jose Urquidy, who will be making his postseason debut in Game 3. Urquidy has a 0.981 WHIP in 2021 and there have been only four starts all season where he allowed more than 3 ER.

Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in any of his L6 starts. Now he didn’t make it very long in Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay. But even still, that wound up being the lone Under to cash for the Red Sox this postseason (they lost 5-0). The Under is also 17-7-4 after the Astros’ last 28 losses and 6-2 the L8 times the Astros have been a playoff underdog. 10* Under Astros/Red Sox

8* LA Dodgers (7:38 ET): So I won with Atlanta in Game 1. As I said in the analysis, they had some key advantages coming into this series, namely revenge, more rest, home field advantage and Max Fried starting. The home field advantage may be undeserved, but it “is what it is.” The rest advantage is no longer a factor heading into Game 2, revenge has been exacted (for a prior series sweep) and Fried is obviously not available tonight. So I’m backing the Dodgers to even this series up tonight. 

Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts did NOT end up using Max Scherzer in Game 1, opting for a “bullpen game” instead. Losing a postseason game is obviously never ideal, but I think Roberts and the Dodgers are in good shape with Scherzer going in Game 2. Let’s also not forget the Dodgers did end up out-hitting the Braves last night 10-6. But they were doomed by going 1 for 8 with RISP (1 for 6 vs. Fried) and then of course there was the baserunning blunder in the top of the ninth. A case could be made, that even with Atlanta’s best pitcher on the mound, the Dodgers were the better team last night. 

There’s no doubt who the better starter is in Game 2. Scherzer is arguably the greatest trade deadline acquisition ever. He pitched twice in the NLDS vs. San Francisco, allowing just one run on three hits in his lone start (Game 3), then tossing the series-clinching final inning of Game 5. The Dodgers are 13-1 in Scherzer starts since acquiring him. Ian Anderson goes for the Braves. While he’s a fine pitcher in his own right, he’s not Scherzer. The Dodgers have lost B2B games just one time since the start of August! 8* LA Dodgers

10* Atlanta (8:08 ET): First off, please note that this play stands regardless of whom the Dodgers officially elect to go with as their starter for Game 1. At some point, we will probably see Max Scherzer. But despite that and the fact they won 18 fewer games in the regular season, the Braves look to have some key advantages heading into the opener of the NLCS. Despite the inferior WL record, they have the home field advantage due to being a division winner. Ludicrous as that rule may be, I don’t think anyone in Atlanta is complaining. 

In addition to the home field edge, the Braves also have Max Fried set to start Game 1. Fried led all of MLB with a 1.74 ERA after the All Star Break and was 8-2 in 13 starts. That run of dominance carried over to the LDS against Milwaukee where he tossed six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in a 3-0 victory. It was the third time in his last four starts that Fried did not give up a single run and he now has a 0.41 ERA and 0.455 WHIP in the last three. Remember that the Dodgers scored two runs or fewer in three of the five games vs. the Giants (and were shut out twice). 

The only time the Braves have lost with Fried on the mound since the start of August was to the Dodgers, by one run, back on September 1st. Fried allowed only three hits in 6 IP, but two were solo homers. The Dodgers would go on to sweep that series, which puts the revenge angle here in play for Atlanta. Another disadvantage for the Dodgers is they had to go to Game 5 vs. the Giants while the Braves have been off since Tuesday. I like Fried to lead them to a “surprise” Game 1 win. 10* Atlanta

10* LA Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Dodgers are simply better than the Giants. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well with those in the Bay Area, but let’s look at the facts. The Dodgers had a better run differential in the regular season (+269 to +210) and - despite being shut out TWICE - they have outscored the Giants in this series 16-9. It’s been an incredible season for SF as they exceeded their regular season win projection by 30+ games and turned a massive profit at the betting window (+46.9 units). But I’ve got them rated as the #2 team. They got dealt a “tough hand,” having to face the #1 team in the LDS. 

For this winner take all Game 5, both teams are sending out their most profitable starter. For the Giants, that’s Logan Webb, who has a 22-5 team start record including 13-0 at home. The fact Webb is unbeaten at home this season and threw 7 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 1 will make him a tough “fade” in the eyes of most. But I just cannot see him beating the Dodgers again. Webb has a 4-0 TSR in ‘21 vs. LA, though twice he did not factor into the decision. The Dodgers led the NL in runs scored this year. They are due to break through against Webb. 

Making me feel MUCH better about fading Webb is the fact the Dodgers are giving the baseball to Julio Urias. MLB’s only 20-game winner, Urias has a 27-6 TSR and the team has won the last 12 times he’s been on the mound! The Dodgers haven’t just scored more runs than the Giants this season, they’ve also allowed less. Incredibly, they have outscored opponents on the road by 1.6 rpg. This is a club that’s been a ML dog in two games all year. It’s not often you get the best team in baseball at this price. You have to take them. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Over Giants/Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Giants have now shut the Dodgers out twice in this series, including last night’s thrilling 1-0 victory that has them on the cusp of their first NLCS since 2014. But I think it’s rather reasonable to expect the Dodgers to have a bounce back game offensively. They are 10-2 the L3 seasons following a shutout loss, including 5-1 in 2021. After being shutout in Game 1 of this series, we all saw them bounce back with nine runs in a Game 2 victory. Whether or not a bounce back night at the plate is enough to win Game 4 remains to be seen though as I think the Giants are also in line for an increase in offense this evening. 

We know that the Giants are going with Anthony DeSclafani as their starter for tonight’s game. DeSclafani may have had a strong regular season overall, but he struggled when facing the Dodgers. He is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in six starts vs. LA this year. One of those six starts saw him give up 10 runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. Another saw him serve up three home runs. DeSclafani’s regular season did end with a streak of six straight Unders. But that is probably due to end here as the Over was 4-2 the L6 times he has faced the Dodgers. 

The Dodgers have not yet officially confirmed their Game 4 starter. It could be Tony Gonsolin or it could be Walker Buehler (who started Game 1). Regardless, this play on the Over is “action,” no matter who ends up starting for the home team. The big story from last night was the 15 MPH wind, which obviously favored the pitchers. Assuming it’s a “normal night” in LA, we won’t have to worry about that again. These were the two highest scoring teams in the NL during the regular season. My play on the Under last night couldn’t have gone any better, but tonight it’s time to take the Over. 10* Over Giants/Dodgers

10* Under Giants/Dodgers (9:37 ET): The Dodgers have to be feeling pretty good about this series right now. They won Game 2 in San Francisco and now head home where they are 59-23 this season. No team has more wins at home this year. For Game 3, they will be sending Max Scherzer out the hill. Since acquiring him from Washington at the trade deadline, the Dodgers are 12-0 when Scherzer starts including the win over St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. As you’d expect, Scherzer has been pretty dominant since donning Dodger Blue. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 10 of those 12 starts. 

But the Giants can’t be discounted here. They were the only team to win more games than the Dodgers in the regular season, which is why they had the homefield advantage for this series.That’s now gone, but the fact they give up only 3.5 runs per game on the road should not be discounted. Only Milwaukee allowed less runs this year away from home. Alex Wood will get the start tonight and not only did he post a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his L3 starts, all Giants wins, but the Under has cashed in each of his L6 starts. Wood hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of those six outings. Remember the Dodgers were shutout in Game 1 of this series. 

As good as the Giants have been at run suppression this year, the Dodgers are even stingier when they’re the home team as they give up only 3.3 rpg at Chavez Ravine. That’s tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the lowest average by any home team. Opposing hitters are batting just .208 for the year here! I know Scherzer had two rocky starts at the end of the regular season (one was in Colorado) and an abbreviated outing in the WC Game. But I have full confidence in him and the Dodgers’ bullpen, which limited the Giants to just three hits in Game 2 and also shut down the Cardinals after Scherzer departed last Wednesday. 10* Under Giants/Dodgers

8* Over Brewers/Braves (1:07 ET): Runs have been scarce so far in this series with only three scored in both games. All three went to the Braves in Game 2 as they evened this LDS up 1-1. (Milwaukee won Game 1, 2-1). But with the series now shifting to Atlanta, you can look for the amount of scoring to go up. It’s rare that I’d say a team might be HAPPY to get away from home, but with Milwaukee it might just be the case. As is the case with Atlanta, the Brew Crew have a better record on the road than they do at home.

One of the reasons the Brewers have been better on the road is that their scoring average jumps to 4.8 runs per game.. That’s a half-run more per game than what they average at American Family Field. So after REALLY struggling at the plate in the first two games, look for the bats to come alive in Game 3 vs. Ian Anderson. The Over was 6-2 in Anderson’s home starts for the Braves. He posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.413 WHIP his L7 starts. The Braves allowed significantly more runs at home than they did on the road in the regular season. 

As of press time, Milwaukee had yet to officially name a Game 3 starter. There’s a good chance it will be Freddy Peralta. Regardless of who toes the rubber, this Over play does stand. If it is Peralta, take note that he struggled a bit down the stretch, posting a 4.70 ERA in five September starts. He has not started since 9/26. The Brewers did allow only 3.4 rpg on the road in the regular season, but Peralta isn’t their best option and the Braves average 5.0 at home. It’s time this series saw a high-scoring game. 8* Over Brewers/Braves

10* Chi White Sox (8:05 ET): The White Sox are facing the possibility of being swept here as this is the lone LDS where the teams did not split the first two games. But now the series moves to Chicago where the Sox are 53-28 this year. They had the third most home victories during the regular season (Dodgers, Giants) and the most in the American League. I just can’t see them being swept.

Tony LaRussa did not get good starts from either Lance Lynn or Lucas Giolito in the first two games of this series. But I think the White Sox skipper is wise to put his faith in Dylan Cease for Game 3. Cease had a strong close to the regular season, going 2-0 over his L3 starts with a 0.63 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. He allowed just one run in 14 ⅓ IP. He also had 24 strikeouts during that time. Like most other White Sox starters, Cease had better numbers at home compared to on the road. White Sox pitching has limited the opposition to a .215 average for the year here on the Southside. 

The White Sox actually outhit the Astros in Game 2. The problem is they fell prey to one big inning from the Astros. Houston was also 6 for 11 with RISP while Chicago was 2 for 11 in that situation. Another problem is that all 18 White Sox hits in this series have been singles. I look for some “bigger” hits tonight against the Astros’ Luis Garcia, who has a 4.24 ERA and 1.336 WHIP on the road. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the White Sox have lost three straight. But they are 5-0 the L5 times they’ve been on a three-game skid. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Under Dodgers/Giants (9:07 ET): The Dodgers ended the regular season on a 5-0 Over run. But as everyone knows, the MLB postseason is a different animal. They’ve been held to just three runs in two games and were shutout last night, 4-0 by the Giants, in Game 1 of the NLDS. Takeaway the walkoff HR in the Wild Card Game Tuesday and Los Angeles has scored only one run in the L2 games. With just five hits last night, it was pretty clear they missed 1B Max Muncy (who is out with a dislocated elbow). Despite the Dodgers’ vaunted reputation, I don’t necessarily see them bouncing back at the plate in Game 2. 

One thing the visitors shouldn’t have to worry about tonight is their starting pitching. Julio Urias has been on fire down the stretch. He was the majors’ only 20-game winner in the regular season and has an 11-0 team start record his L11 trips to the mound with a 1.77 ERA! Urias has faced the Giants five times in 2021 and held them to 2 ER or less on four of those occasions. He’s allowed a total of only three runs the last three times he faced them. The Giants are also without their starting 1B, Brandon Belt, so they too have a weaker lineup than usual right now. The Under is 6-1-1 in Urias’ previous eight starts. 

Kevin Gausman may not be able to match Urias’ gaudy WL record, but he does have a 21-12 TSR for the Giants to go along with a 2.81 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. That’s a lower ERA than Urias has. The Dodgers could only manage three singles and two doubles last night. Over the past nine games, the Giants’ staff has allowed a total of just 21 runs and posted three shutouts. So look for this to be a low-scoring Game 2. The Dodgers are 9-1 Under off their L10 losses and could not score more than three runs off Gausman any of the three times they faced him in the regular season. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants

10* Run Line Atlanta (4:37 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play. The Braves may have won a weak NL East by just 6.5 games, but they were pretty clearly the best team in their division. Every other team had a negative run differential while Atlanta was +134. That’s a better run differential than Milwaukee (+115), for the record. It was the Braves’ superior run differential that caught my eye back in August when they first made their move to take over the division. Since August 2nd, the team is 36-18 overall. I like them +1.5 in Game 1 of the NLDS. 

Usually, a team covets having home field advantage. But in the case of the Brewers, I’m not so sure that will be the case. They were just 45-36 here at American Family Field during the regular season, compared to 50-31 on the road. They only average 4.3 rpg at home, the same number they allow. The Brew Crew and Braves have faced off a total of six times in 2021 and four of those have been won by the road team. Atlanta has been good on the road all year, going 46-35 while outscoring opponents by a full run per game.

Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes led the NL in ERA this season and has a 234-34 KW ratio. But, he just suffered his 1st loss since May with a poor effort against the Dodgers on Sunday. He lasted just two innings and gave up three runs. Burnes faced Atlanta one time in the regular season and allowed a season-high 5 ER in that one. The Braves’ Game 1 starter, Charlie Morton, is more than capable of matching Burnes here as he checks in with a 2.43 ERA and 0.861 WHIP his L7 starts. The Brewers did not finish the regular season well, losing four straight and five of six. Atlanta may be the better overall team here. 10* Run Line Atlanta

8* Over White Sox/Astros (2:10 ET): My view that the White Sox were better on the road than their record suggests turned out to be misguided, at least for Game 1. The Astros wasted no time jumping out to a lead on Thursday afternoon, scoring at least one run from the second to the fifth inning and that was all she wrote. It ended up being a 6-1 win for the home team. The White Sox fell to 40-42 away from home this season, but as I pointed out in yesterday’s analysis, they do average 4.7 runs per game. So I’m at least expecting more offense from them this afternoon.

Houston finished tied (w/ Tampa Bay) for the major league lead in runs per game at 5.3. Their offensive prowess was on full display yday as they scored six (or more) runs for the fourth consecutive game. In Game 2, they’ll face Lucas Giolito, who had a great start in LY’s postseason. But that’s just a small sample size and there’s certainly no guarantee he can repeat that performance here. Giolito did throw a complete-game three-hitter against the Astros in the regular season, but the final score was 10-1, a result I’d certainly take here as I’m on the Over. 

Framber Valdez will start Game 2 for the Astros. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five starts and also surrendered that many the last time he faced the White Sox. So there’s still hope for the road team in this series. The White Sox figure to be aggressive at the plate today as they look to avoid falling into an 0-2 series deficit. This is a lineup that’s scored 5+ runs in six of its last eight games. But the Over is 23-10-2 the L35 times Houston has been off a win, so this figures to be a high-scoring game all around. 8* Over White Sox/Astros

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. I feel that the White Sox’ 40-41 road record is a little misleading. They’ve actually outscored their opponents by a decent margin when playing away from home. So I think getting them with an additional run and a half in our “back pocket” is a good buy. I’ve got a lot of respect for the Astros, who did sweep the White Sox in their lone visit of 2021. But the AL West Champs have a losing record in day games. 

I also give the visitors the edge in starting pitching for Game 1. They’ll send Lance Lynn, an offseason acquisition from Texas, to the mound. Lynn had a Cy Young worthy season with 201 strikeouts in 31 starts. He posted a 2.65 ERA after the All-Star Break. Going back a bit further (to June 26th), Lynn has a 9-6 TSR his L15 starts. But in four of those six starts the White Sox lost, the final deficit was just one run. I’ll take that here. 

I’m not going to tell you that Houston’s Game 1 starter (Lance McCullers Jr) is bad. Because that would be a lie. McCullers was 5 for 5 in quality starts in September. But he still has a higher ERA/WHIP than Lynn over the course of the full season. The Astros were just 4-6 L10 games while the White Sox are 7-2 their L9. Chicago did lose its final regular season game (meaningless) but is 45-25 off a loss this year. 8* Chi White Sox +1.5 (RUN LINE)

10* Boston Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking Boston +1.5. The Yankees won the final six regular season meetings vs. the Red Sox, all of those wins coming by two runs or greater. But it was the team’s WL record in games decided by two runs or LESS that got them this Wild Card opportunity as the Yanks outperformed their expected win total by six games in the regular season. Only Seattle, who was a ridiculous +15, was a bigger overachiever in that regard. I just can’t see the Yankees beating the Red Sox for a seventh straight time by two or more runs.

Despite the Yanks winning the L6 head to head meetings, Boston still won the season series 10-9. The first seven meetings of 2021 were actually all won by the Red Sox. That’s why this winner-take-all game is taking place in Fenway Park, where the home team happens to average 5.8 runs per game. That was the highest scoring average by any team at home this year, even more than Colorado at Coors Field. The Red Sox lineup will also not be intimidated by Gerrit Cole, who will start Tuesday for the Yankees. Cole has a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts vs. Boston this season. He also really struggled over his L3 starts of the regular season, giving up 15 runs in 17 ⅔ IP, and has been a big money-loser overall (-12.35 units) in ‘21. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees are not that strong of an offensive club. They average only 4.4 rpg, second fewest among all playoff teams. Much will be made of Nathan Eovaldi’s 1-4 TSR vs. the Yankees this year, but he allowed 2 ER or less in five of those six starts. Eovaldi has a 3.64 ERA since 2016 against his former team. Boston finished the regular season with a better run differential than the Yankees, +80 to +42, and I think there’s some real value here on the better team playing at home. Boston will win, or lose by only one run, on Tuesday. 10* Boston +1.5

8* Under Yankees/Red Sox (8:08 ET): Even though the Red Sox come in averaging a MLB-high 5.8 runs per game at home and have had success this year vs. Gerrit Cole, look for the AL Wild Card Game to stay Under the total. The Yankees are NOT a particularly strong offensive club and - with one exception in September - Nathan Eovaldi has had their number the past few seasons. The Under was 13-6 in all meetings this year between the Yankees and Red Sox. That includes 8-2 at Fenway and 8-2 L10 overall. 

Eovaldi starting here for Boston makes sense. Since 2016, he has a 3.64 ERA against his former team. Five of the six times he faced them this season, Eovaldi allowed 2 ER or less. The first five saw him allow just seven runs in 31 ⅓ IP. Then he got shelled in late September. I’m going to call that last one an aberration as the Yankees are averaging just 4.4 rpg for the season, second fewest among all playoff teams (even including the National League ones). The Yanks have gone Under in 56% of their road games and 62% of their division games. 

Cole hasn’t fared well against the Red Sox this season. Like Eovaldi, he definitely did struggle a bit down the stretch. But Cole was intentionally rested Sunday so that he’d be available for this game, or a tiebreaker that ended up not being needed. The Yankees obviously trust him in the spot and it’s unlikely that he struggles badly. Cole allowed three runs or less in 23 of his 30 regular season starts. Boston is 7-1 Under in its last eight games. 8* Under Yankees/Red Sox

10* Houston (7:10 ET): The Astros outhit the A’s on Friday (13-7), but also committed three errors and as a result they lost 8-6. Both teams scored four runs in the eighth inning. As a reminder, despite having already clinched the AL West pennant, Houston still has something to play for here. That would be homefield advantage in the LDS vs. the White Sox. All they need is one more win to clinch. While the revenge angle hasn’t suited me too well of late, I’m sticking with it and taking the ‘Stros tonight. 

Oakland swept Houston last weekend, delaying what seemed like an inevitable fourth division crown in five years for the Astros. That sweep also kept the A’s alive in the Wild Card hunt. But then they were swept in Seattle, which officially eliminated them from playoff contention. Although the A’s will tell you that it’s “definitely possible” (they lost 12 straight times to the Mariners!), sweeping the same team twice in a row is hard to do, especially when you’re the underdog like the A’s are here. 

Houston took two of three from another division leader (Tampa Bay) earlier in the week. I just can’t see them losing again to Oakland as a favorite. They send Jake Odorizzi to the bump on Saturday, hoping he can continue a recent successful stretch of allowing 2 ER or less in six straight starts. He held Oakland to one run and four hits when he faced them last weekend. Paul Blackburn faces him for the second straight time here. After also not factoring into the decision in the last meeting, Blackburn is still just 1-3 with no quality starts in eight trips to the mound this season. He had a 6.20 ERA last month. 10* Houston

9* Houston (8:05 ET): The Astros clinched the AL West pennant on Thursday by beating the Rays 3-2. Now they can put another race to bed, that being for homefield advantage in the ALDS vs. Chicago, by defeating Oakland on Friday. Having the homefield edge vs. the AL Central champs would be huge for Houston considering Chicago has a vastly inferior record on the road compared to when they play at Guaranteed Rate Field. Throw in a revenge angle for the ‘Stros and this is an easy call tonight. 

So the A’s did sweep Houston last weekend. But that was in Oakland. Unfortunately for the A’s, in the series both before and after that, they were swept by the Mariners. The A’s lost 12 straight times to Seattle this year and that is the reason they are no longer in contention for the Wild Card. With nothing left to play for this weekend, I can’t see them putting up much of a fight. The bottom line is that - outside of their 13-game win streak back in April - the A’s have been a sub-.500 team the rest of the year. 

In the playoffs for a fifth straight season (4th as AL West Champs) and 49-29 at home, Houston will send Framber Valdez to the mound on Friday. This is immediate revenge spot for Valdez as he came out on the losing end of a 2-1 decision against Oakland’s Sean Manaea last weekend. Both pitched masterfully, but I like how Valdez has allowed just one run in his last two starts (13 ⅔ IP) and has a 7-3 TSR at home this season. The Astros are better than the A’s and in addition to the revenge angle, they simply have more to play for right now. It’s that simple. 9* Houston

10* Under Red Sox/Nationals (7:05 ET): An inability to score runs has hurt Boston at the worst possible time as the Red Sox head into the final weekend of the regular season in a tenuous battle for the final playoff spot in the American League. Tied with Seattle and only a game up on Toronto for the second Wild Card, the Red Sox have dropped five of six and scored three runs or less in all five losses. Now they won’t have a DH as they head to Washington for an interleague series against the Nationals.

If you are assuming that a matchup versus a last place team should guarantee the Red Sox success over the weekend, then you better think again. They just dropped two of three to the 100+ loss Orioles, a series where every game went Under the total. The Under is 5-0 in Boston’s last five games overall. I’m a little shocked that the total is so high for tonight’s game, considering we’re playing under “NL rules.” The Under is also 19-5-2 the last 26 times the Red Sox have been road favorites (as they are here). 

I like taking the Under when you’ve got two lefties on the mound, especially in Interleague play. It’s not like the hitters are all that familiar with either starting pitcher in this game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has never faced the Nats before and Washington’s Jesse Rogers has never faced the Red Sox before. Rodriguez has a 2.94 ERA his L3 starts while Rogers is at 2.08. The Nationals could only score 11 runs in three games at Coors Field this week and are 14-5 Under following an off day. 10* Under Red Sox/Nationals

10* San Francisco (9:45 ET): The Giants can ill-afford to “slip up” in the final days of the regular season as the Dodgers continue to breath down their necks in the race for the NL West pennant and homefield advantage throughout the postseason. Fortunately, they are still facing an Arizona team that they have absolutely beat up on all season long. Yesterday’s 1-0 win gives SF a 16-2 head to head record with the D’backs in 2021. They’ll win again tonight. 

San Francisco has been the biggest money-makers in MLB this season, which makes sense given they have the best overall record and weren’t expected to be THIS good. Still, being up 44.6 units for an entire season is very impressive. No team in the L20 seasons has been that profitable. On the flip side, Arizona has been the worst team to bet on in 2021 as they are -39.7 units, including a horrendous 20-60 on the road. They are 0-8 in San Francisco this year. 

In this price range, the D’backs are basically “unplayable.” They’ve gone 5-30 as a road dog of +175 to +250. They are also 2-13 following a shutout loss. It’ll be a familiar face to Giants’ fans pitching for Arizona tonight as Madison Bumgarner toes the rubber for the visitors. MadBum’s best days are clearly behind him at this point as the former Giant has given up 5+ runs three times in his last five starts. It doesn’t help that the D’backs offense has been shutout twice in the L3 games and scored zero runs off Giants’ starters in this series. Unless you are Scott Kazmir, who starts tonight for SF. 10* San Francisco

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets were my one loss last night and it was a frustrating one at that. They led 2-0 entering the 8th inning against a Marlins team that had lost its last seven games. But a three-run rally by the visitors put an end to that losing streak and here we are Thursday with both teams simply playing for what little pride they have left. It must be pointed out that the Mets outhit the Marlins yday, 9-5, but hit into three costly double plays. 

Let’s also not forget that the Mets swept Tuesday’s doubleheader, holding Miami to just three runs in 16 innings of play (the second game went to extras). The Marlins’ offense remains a MAJOR question mark as they have scored only 11 runs total in the L6 games. As I said yday, Citi Field is just not the place where they are likely to turn things around at the plate. The one thing the Mets have consistently done well this season is limit scoring at home. They give up only 3.5 runs per game here. 

Only the Dodgers and Rays, two of the best teams in baseball, have given up fewer runs at home than the Mets this season. Veteran lefty Rich Hill should have no problem shutting down a Marlins lineup that fielded six rookies yesterday. Miami is 4-16 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Mets are 12-5 as home favorites of -175 to -250 and should get to Edward Cabrera, who has an 0-3 TSR on the road for Miami with a 6.75 ERA and 1.781 ERA in those three starts. 8* NY Mets

8* Under Angels/Rangers (2:05 ET): The Angels and Rangers wrap up a three-game series in Arlington this afternoon. So far, each team has prevailed one time. The Rangers took the opener 5-2 and then the Halos bounced back last night to win 7-2, thanks to Shohei Ohtani. I’m going to go ahead and predict this will be the lowest scoring game of this series. Before yesterday, six of the previous seven meetings had stayed Under the total. The Under is on a 5-1 run for Texas if they allow 5+ runs in the previous game. 

Alex Cobb gets the start Thursday afternoon for the Angels. Besides Ohtani, Cobb has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season. He has allowed 1 or 0 ER in six consecutive starts and has a 1.15 ERA in the last three. Texas is by far the lowest scoring team in the American League (3.8 rpg) so this matchup seems well-suited to continue Cobb’s recent strong run. When he inevitably departs, I’ll remain confident as last night the LA bullpen retired the final 12 hitters in order with seven strikeouts. 

Last night was also just the second time in 10 games that the Angels finished with 10 or more hits. So they are no offensive juggernaut either. In nine of their last 16 games, they’ve scored three runs or less. I thought that rookie Glenn Otto, who starts for Texas tonight, pitched pretty well in his last outing. He gave up only two runs in five innings of work. The problem was the Rangers didn’t score any runs themselves. At least here, Otto is facing a team that averages less than 4.0 runs in day games. 8* Under Angels/Rangers

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox have already clinched the AL Central, but still have something left to play for. That would be home field advantage in the LDS against whomever wins the AL West, which will almost certainly be Houston. Entering today, the Sox still trail the ‘Stros by 2.5 games as both teams won Tuesday. Here in Chicago, it was a very comfortable 7-1 win for the home team. They’ve now won five of six and I look for them to continue rolling tonight against a Reds team that was just eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. 

For a while there, it looked as if Cincinnati was going to earn the National League’s second Wild Card. They overtook San Diego, who was seemingly their only competition. But then the Cardinals came out of nowhere, have now won 17 straight, and will be the NL’s 2nd WC team. So the Reds have to be pretty deflated coming into today’s game. They’d won four in a row before getting held to four hits last night. So they were trying. I just can’t see them having much left to offer in these last remaining games. 

 After starting rookies each of the L2 games, the Reds turn to veteran Sonny Gray on Wednesday. The problem is that Gray has a 4.33 ERA in September now he has to deal with a lineup that has a DH, something that wasn’t the case in any of those previous four starts. I know that Tony LaRussa may have a short leash with Carlos Rodon as the White Sox righty has been dealing with arm fatigue. But the White Sox will score enough to improve to 51-27 at home this year. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (7:40 ET): Really, the only thing Detroit had left to play for was ending a streak of four consecutive losing seasons. Well, they are now assured of a fifth straight losing campaign after falling 3-2 last night here in Minnesota. The loss was the Tigers’ third in a row, all of which have come by one run. It’s probably a bit deflating in the clubhouse knowing they can no longer reach .500 for the year, so I’ll fade them in this one as Minnesota hopes to continue their own climb back to respectability. 

Now the Twins are also going to finish with a losing record. It’s a far cry from the L2 seasons when they captured the AL Central pennant. Injuries really derailed their season early on and the fact the team is -24.9 units YTD further illustrates just how far short they fell of preseason expectations. But lately things have been better. They’ve been a .500 team since August and won series against all three American League division leaders. They are 5-2 the L7 games overall. 

Detroit has been very careful with its young pitchers down the stretch. Today’s starter Casey Mize has been limited to no more than three innings in his last four outings and the team has lost the last three. Mize’s ERA in those L3 starts is 5.62, which is a lot different than the Twins’ Michael Pineda, who is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA his L3 starts. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in every start since coming off the IL. Additionally, his lone start vs. the Tigers this year went well as the righty allowed just two runs and five hits over 6 IP. The Twins don’t want to finish in last place and a strong finish likely gets them out of the AL Central basement.  8* Minnesota

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Both the Mets and Marlins had lost five in a row coming into this series. It was not guaranteed that one of the two losing streaks would continue yesterday, as the NL East rivals faced off in a doubleheader. But one day later, here we are and the Marlins have now dropped seven in a row. Highlighted by Noah Syndergaard’s return to the mound (following a two-year absence), the Mets swept Tuesday’s DH, winning by scores of 5-2 and 2-1. I think they are going to win again tonight. 

Miami’s offense has been virtually non-existent during this losing streak. They’ve been held to three runs or less in six of the seven games and Citi Field is simply an unlikely place for them to turn things around at the plate. That’s because the one thing the Mets have consistently done well this year is limit the opposition from scoring at home. They give up an average of only 3.5 rpg here. Only the Dodgers and Rays, who have two of the three best records in baseball, have allowed fewer runs at home in 2021. 

I had an O/U play set for the first game yesterday, but a late Miami pitching change turned that into a no-action. The Mets’ decision to go with Syndergaard in the second game was also a late call. Here, the teams seem fully committed to their respective starters, Elieser Hernandez and Taijuan Walker. Hernandez simply hasn’t pitched well enough for Miami to make you think he can overcome the team’s offensive woes. He allowed 3 HR’s in his last start. Walker has also struggled, but is much better at home. The Marlins have one of the worst road records in the league (24-55). 8* NY Mets

9* Oakland (10:10 ET): I simply have no words for what has happened to the A’s at the hands of the Mariners over the last week. The teams have met five times. Seattle has won all five. So that’s now TEN straight head to head losses for Oakland in this AL West rivalry. For Seattle, that ties a team record for most consecutive wins against a single opponent. This MUST come to an end. 

What’s even more remarkable about these results against Seattle is that Oakland is 8-0 its L8 games when NOT facing the Mariners! In between these last five losses, they swept the division leading Astros, which is pretty impressive! I continue to dig my heels in that they are the better team here. Over the course of 2021, they have a +65 run differential. Seattle’s run differential is -52, which gives them an expected win total that’s 14 games less than their actual win total. I’ve beaten it into the ground at this point, but no team has overachieved more this season. The Mariners, in my opinion, are far more lucky than they are good. 

I still believe that luck will run out and Seattle will not make the playoffs. I’m too big of a believer in run differential being a reliable metric to think otherwise. Originally, the M’s were going to start All Star Yusei Kikuchi tonight, but instead they’ve opted to make this a “bullpen game” with Tyler Anderson opening. The last time Anderson pitched, he gave up nine runs in two innings. Their own playoff hopes hanging on by a thread, the A’s MUST take advantage of this change. Chris Bassitt, 12-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.039 WHIP this season, will make his second start for the A’s since returning from a serious injury. He threw three shutout innings against the Mariners last week. This is the biggest revenge game of 'em all. 9* Oakland

9* Milwaukee (7:45 ET): The next stop on our “revenge” tour takes us to St. Louis. The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball right now as a franchise record 16-game win streak has propelled them to the cusp of making the playoffs as the second Wild Card. With a 5.5-game edge over the field, it’s a virtual lock that the Redbirds will be facing either the Giants or Dodgers in the NL WC Game next week. But as hot as they’ve been (this is the longest win streak by any team in 2021), I’m going to predict a loss on Tuesday. 

Milwaukee has already punched its postseason ticket by virtue of winning the NL Central. They will be the #2 seed and await the NL East Champ in the LDS. As hot as St. Louis has been, the Brewers still are seven games better this season. The revenge angle stems from them getting swept at home by the Cards just last week. There are two key factors which lead me to believe this game is going to the Brew Crew. 

One is that the Brewers are simply better on the road. They are 49-26 away from Miller Park and +1.7 rpg, which is fantastic. The second key factor is Brandon Woodruff starting. Woodruff did not deserve to lose to the Cardinals last week as he allowed just one run and two hits over six innings. He also had 10 strikeouts. I know Adam Wainwright has been hot for St. Louis (7-0 TSR L7 starts). But it is Woodruff who has the better overall numbers over the course of the season. 9* Milwaukee

9* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): It’s obviously not been a good season in Pittsburgh, but yesterday was an exceptionally poor effort, even by Pirates’ standards. The team got beat 13-1 at home by the Reds, which drops them to 40 games below .500. But the theme of this three-pack is “revenge” and because of that I will back the Bucs on Tuesday in one of the rare times they are actually favored on the ML. 

The Pirates have revenge here as they’ve been swept two straight times by the Cubs. The more recent of the two series took place earlier this month at Wrigley Field and three of the four Cubs’ wins were by just one run. The Cubs may be 12-4 vs. the Pirates this year, but 12 of those games were played before June and they come into this series ice cold. They’ve lost six straight and 13 of the last 15 games. St. Louis swept them over the weekend at Wrigley. 

A bad loss yesterday and seven straight losses to the Cubs should have the home team supremely motivated today. I understand that taking the Pirates seems risky. But the Cubs are 28-47 on the road. The Pirates look to have the edge in today’s pitching matchup as Mitch Keller has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven starts, including six shutout innings vs the Cubs on 9/2. Chicago’s Alec Mills gave up seven runs the last time he started and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Pirates. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Under Marlins/Mets (4:10 ET): Two cold teams that typically don’t hit well to begin with are playing a seven-inning game. Both the Marlins and Mets enter this series on five-game losing streaks. Miami scored just five runs in its last series while the Mets scored only six in theirs. The last two times these teams played, they combined for three and five runs and those were nine-inning games. So, yeah, I’m taking the Under in Game 1 of this Tuesday doubleheader. 

No park has seen a fewer total number of runs scored than Citi Field has this season. The average per game is just 7.3 and again, this game is shorter than usual. Not only are the Mets the lowest scoring home team in the majors this season (3.7 rpg), they allow the third fewest runs per game at home (3.6). The fact Miami only averages 3.8 rpg on the road (26th) further strengthens my belief in how this game will go.

There’s a good chance the Mets will only come up to bat six times. That’s because they are heavily favored and likely to be ahead going into the last inning. Marcus Stroman obviously has a heavy influence on this line. The Under is 10-3 in his 13 home starts and he has a 2.13 career ERA vs. Miami. Not to be overlooked though is Trevor Rogers, who gets the starting nod for the Marlins. He has a 1.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mets. His numbers this season are right on par with Stroman’s, 10* Under Marlins/Mets

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): I’m pushing all my “chips” to the middle with this one. It’s completely ridiculous that the A’s have lost nine straight times to the Mariners. The teams have very similar records (M’s 86-70, A’s 85-71). It’s also beyond comprehension that Seattle is still in playoff contention, given that they have been outscored by 61 runs this season. They have *15* more wins than expected based on that run differential, easily making them MLB’s biggest overachiever this season. No other team has outperformed its expected win total by more than six games! 

After getting swept at home by Seattle last week, the A’s had a GREAT weekend, turning in their own series sweep. And it was against the Astros, the team with the best run differential in the American League! They allowed just six runs in the series and pitching hasn’t been a problem in the past vs. Seattle. The Mariners have only scored a grand total of 42 runs in their nine-game run against the A’s. This isn’t that surprising considering the M’s are dead last in MLB in team batting average (.225), 28th in OBP (.301), 26th in slugging (.384) and 27th in OPS. For the season, they are batting just .210 at home! 

So I expect a strong start from Cole Irvin tonight. The A’s southpaw is REALLY due for a win over Seattle as he’s 0-4 against them this year. Irvin has allowed 3 ER or less in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Meanwhile, Chris Flexen should feel rather fortunate to have a 20-9 TSR for the Mariners. Oakland has better offensive numbers on the road than they do at home. So expect them to score more in this series than they did last week. Remember that the A’s are in WC contention, just like the Mariners. They WILL take tonight’s series opener. 10* Oakland

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies had the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers and Giants last week. They ended up going 1-5 in those games, losing two of three to the Dodgers and getting swept by the Giants over the weekend. Being in the same division with baseball’s only two 100+ win teams really stinks if you’re Colorado, but thankfully they are done facing them this year. The final home series of the 2021 season is against the last place Nationals, who the Rockies beat twice (in three tries) earlier this month. 

That series win over the Nats was in D.C. At home, the Rockies are a whole heck of a lot better. They sport a 46-32 record at Coors Field this season as opposed to a 25-52 record on the road. Keep in mind that the home mark was even better before the Dodgers and Giants came to town. Colorado has won more than two-thirds of its home games this year when NOT facing either of those two teams. Washington is 29-49 on the road after losing three straight in Cincinnati over the weekend. 

There’s big pitching mismatch on Monday with German Marquez going against Josiah Gray. Usually, Rockies’ pitchers don’t perform better at home than they do on the road. But Marquez has a 14-3 team start record at Coors this year with a 3.49 ERA and 1.153 WHIP. The team is 4-0 his L4 starts overall. Despite the fact he didn’t pitch well in Washington on 9/17, Marquez’s team got the ‘W’ over Gray and the Nationals. The Rockies are 36-14 L50 as a home favorite of -125 to -175, including 14-3 this season. 8* Colorado

10* Boston (7:08 ET): The Red Sox have now lost five in a row to the Yankees and are tied with them in the Wild Card race. Now both teams can make the playoffs and then face each other in the WC Game. But homefield advantage for said WC Game is still at stake plus you’ve got Toronto and Seattle both lurking not far behind, looking to steal one of the WC spots. This head to head rivalry has taken a dramatic swing in the second half of the season as the Red Sox had won 10 of the first 13 meetings. I’ll take them to avoid the sweep Sunday night as a big play.

It sure looked as if the Red Sox were headed for victory Saturday night. They led 2-1 entering the 8th, which was when disaster (for them) struck and Giancarlo Stanton hit a grand slam. Thus a perfectly good start from Nick Pivetta was wasted. The Yankees finished with only four hits for the game, but when one of them results in four runs scoring, sometimes that’s all you need. Still, you can’t help but feel the home team “should have won.”

The Yankees have won five in a row overall but so had the Red Sox coming into this series. The Sox are 49-31 at Fenway this season while averaging 5.9 runs per game. No team averages more rpg at home. Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has a 3.64 ERA since Aug 1. But most important of all, he has a 4-0 TSR this year vs. the Yankees. Meanwhile, I’m not that impressed by how few runs that Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has given up recently as more often than not, he doesn’t go that deep into games. He has an 0-2 TSR vs. Baltimore this month & a 1-3 TSR vs. Boston in 2021. 10* Boston

7* Chi White Sox (7:15 ET): The White Sox officially became AL Central Champs on Thursday when they won the first game of a doubleheader here in Cleveland, 7-2. They did lose the second game of that twinbill, 5-3, but quickly bounced back with a 1-0 win Friday. There’s not a ton left to play for in the regular season as Tony LaRussa’s team can’t catch the Rays for home field advantage in the playoffs. But a strong finish would go a long way to creating momentum for a deep postseason run.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is below .500 and out of contention. Last night marked the 13th shutout loss of the season as they struck out 16 times, matching a season-high. It’s been a difficult season with manager Terry Francona taking a leave of absence. Perhaps the biggest news for the Indians is that they’ll be changing their name to the Guardians next season. I was at the first game of the doubleheader on Thursday and believe me there is a real “stench” around this team right now. They’ve scored just 15 runs in the L6 games. 

Lance Lynn hasn’t won for the White Sox since July 25th. He’s 0-2 his L8 starts, but that doesn’t mean he’s pitched poorly. He did have one bad outing against the Cubs where he allowed seven runs. But he’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in 10 of his previous 13 starts. The team has scored just seven runs his L4 starts, which seems like an aberration. The White Sox should score tonight off Eli Morgan, who has an 8.31 ERA at home this year and Lynn is due for a victory. 7* Chi White Sox

8* Toronto (8:10 ET): The Blue Jays badly need to start winning again as they’ve fallen out of the top two in the Wild Card chase. Losing to Minnesota on Thursday (7-2) leaves them a game behind the Yankees for the second WC spot and three games behind the Red Sox for the top WC spot. Those two teams are playing each other this weekend, so the Jays have an excellent chance to make up ground. All they need to do is beat up on a last place team. That shouldn’t be so hard, right?

The Twins have won three straight. But they are simply not in the same class as a Toronto team that has outscored its opponents by 166 runs over the course of this season. To put that number in perspective, it’s the fifth best run differential in MLB. Based on it, you’d expect the Blue Jays to be a 94-win team and challenging for the AL East pennant. But they’ve underperformed as the current nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is the largest of any team in MLB. 

I’m on the record as saying the Jays WILL make the playoffs so it makes all the sense in the world to take them here. They’ve got Jose Berrios starting Friday night. This will be his 1st time starting at Target Field as a visitor. He pitched here in Minnesota for many years and did quite well. He just faced his former team for the first time last week (in Toronto) and delivered his fifth straight quality start, leading the Jays to a 5-3 victory. I’m confident he’ll do the same thing again here opposite Bailey Ober, who has a 6.57 ERA his L3 starts for the Twins. 8* Toronto

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers have been playing good baseball of late and still have a chance to finish .500 for the year. They come into this series with the Royals not just with added rest (off the L2 days) but also on a four-game win streak. They’ve won seven of nine overall even with all those games coming against division leaders (White Sox, Rays, Brewers). Kansas City is definitely a “step down” from those previous opponents, so I expect the home team to exact some revenge here for a three-game sweep it suffered back in July at Kauffman Stadium. 

The Royals have had the same amount of rest as the Tigers coming into this series. It’s a situation where both teams had their games postponed by rain on Wednesday before scheduled off days on Thursday. Kansas City has not been playing nearly as well as the Tigers, winning only three of its last eight games and two of those wins came in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Monday. Most of this year has seen KC struggle on the road. They are just 33-44 and averaging 3.9 runs per game. The L9 times they’ve faced Detroit have all been at home. 

Casey Mize is on a strict innings limit for the Tigers (won’t go more than three innings), but I like him to get the job done while on the mound Friday. The Royals have been held to two runs or less in four of their last seven games. They did score 10 runs the last time Carlos Hernandez started a game, but that wasn’t enough as the right-hander allowed seven runs in four innings and the team lost 12-10 to Oakland. Considering their recent form and the fact they have revenge, expect the Tigers to take this one. 10* Detroit

8* Oakland (3:10 ET): I thought the A’s were going to dominate this series. Clearly, that has not happened. They’ve lost the first three games to the Mariners and are now 0-8 the L8 head to head matchups with their AL West rivals. The results of this series have put Seattle ahead in the Wild Card chase as Oakland is now a full game behind them and 3.5 games back of the second WC spot. The A’s came into this series on a five-game win streak and I thought the fact they had revenge from a previous sweep would serve them well. I just can’t see them being swept at home in a four-game series. 

I’ve beaten the discussion of Seattle’s YTD run differential to death at this point. They continue to be the only American League team with a winning record and negative run differential. It’s not that uncommon to have a team with that dichotomy, but the M’s have taken it to the extreme in 2021. They are 83-69 despite having been outscored by 54 runs! Their win expectancy, based on that run differential, is only 70! No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than six this season. The 2021 Mariners are truly one of the great overachievers of our time. I still don’t think they are very good. 

In their eight consecutive defeats at the hands of Seattle, the A’s have never topped four runs in any game. But I think the offense will get going this afternoon against Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 7.45 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have been Mariners’ losses. Kikuchi has also lost six of his last seven decisions. Starting opposite him will be Chris Bassitt, who makes his return to the mound after being hit in the face with a line drive last month. Bassitt had the most wins (12) in the American League at the time of his injury and the A’s have to be thrilled to have him back. Seattle’s offense is bottom five in batting average, slugging, OBP and OPS. 8* Oakland

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Sweeping a four-game series on the road is tough to do, particularly when you’ve been the underdog every day. But that’s what St. Louis is looking to do here as the Cardinals are on their longest win streak in 20 years (11 games) and have taken three straight in Milwaukee. While fading a hot team like this can be a bit scary, I’m going to lean on the fact that the Brewers are a very good team (first place!) and this is the first time since June that they’ve lost more than three in a row. I believe they’re due to bounce back and will avoid the (rare) four-game sweep at home.

Now the Brew Crew needs to start swinging the bats better. In their last six losses, they’ve totaled just 10 runs. They’ve been outscored 17-5 in this series and are 15-45 this season when scoring three runs or less. Facing long-time nemesis Adam Wainwright may not sound like the ideal time for them to get the offense going. But Milwaukee is 39-21 in day games this season, averaging 4.8 runs. They also are averaging 5.0 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. They’ve won 41 of their last 60 games vs. righty starters. 

It also helps (the home team) having Adrian Houser on the mound. Houser is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP during that time. The Brewers have won 17 of his 24 starts this season. One of those last three starts came against the Cardinals and Houser went the distance with a complete-game three-hitter (no runs allowed). He is 6-1 his L17 starts with a 2.87 ERA. Houser also beat the Cards back in April when the only run he allowed was unearned. St. Louis is just 2-7 the L9 finales of a four-game series. 10* Milwaukee

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): Well, hopefully the “third time's the charm” here as the Mariners have certainly made me look foolish in the first two games of this series. They’ve beaten the A’s by scores of 4-2 and 5-2 to pull even for second place in the American League West. Both clubs have 82-69 records and are three games out of the Wild Card. But, as stated here numerous times before, the Mariners being in playoff contention is nothing short of miraculous. They’ve been outscored by 57 runs this season, a differential that’s indicative of a team you’d expect to have 69 wins, not 82. No other team in MLB has exceeded their expected win total by more than six. Seattle is +13! They are the only AL team to have a winning record and a negative run differential. 

The A’s had won five straight games coming into this series and I expected them to keep rolling. They had revenge for a previous series sweep at the hands of the Mariners. With the results of the L2 days, they’ve now lost seven straight times to the M’s despite never giving up more than five runs in any of those contests. They need to get the offense going tonight and I predict they will as they face Seattle starter Chris Flexen, who has a somewhat misleading 19-9 TSR. Despite being 6-1 on the road, Flexen has a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in those 13 games. 

The Mariners have the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.225) plus they are 28th in OBP (.302), 26th in slugging (.384) and 27th in OPS. So that’s bottom five in the four key offensive categories. So there’s no reason that Cole Irvin, the A’s starter for tonight, shouldn’t pitch well here. Irvin did surrender four runs in his last start, but three were unearned. In his most recent home start, Irvin gave up just two runs in seven innings and had eight strikeouts, matching his 2nd highest total of 2021. 10* Oakland

8* Oakland (9:40 ET): The A’s lost for the sixth straight time to the Mariners last night, 4-2. As frustrating a loss as it was for them, it was even more so on this end as I went with Oakland in the series opener. My view on the Mariners is well documented by this point. This is a team that has no business even being in playoff contention. They have been outscored by 60 runs over the course of the season, which works out to an “expected” won-loss record of 68-82. But thanks to an incredible run of good fortune in close games, the team’s actual record is 81-69. They are the only AL team to have a winning record and negative run differential.

As you can see, the Mariners’ have outperformed their expected win total by 13 games. Now consider this - no other team in all of baseball has outperformed its expected win total by more than six games. Yesterday’s result leaves Seattle one game behind Oakland and three back of the second Wild Card spot, which is what both teams are chasing. The A’s are long overdue to snap this long losing skid to the Mariners. They’ve got a run differential of +67 on the season. I view them as a far more “legitimate” playoff contender compared to Seattle. Oakland had won five in a row going into yesterday. 

At the plate, Seattle has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB. They are also bottom five in both slugging and on base percentage. This is NOT a good team, folks! I’m aware that Tuesday’s starter Marco Gonzales has pitched well down the stretch, going 7-0 (9-3 TSR) with a 2.70 ERA his L12 starts. But after a five-out save last night, ace reliever Paul Sewald will likely NOT be available for manager Scott Servais tonight. Oakland had been getting good starting pitching lately and on top of that they’ve averaged 8.3 rpg in Paul Blackburn’s three September outings. Blackburn goes tonight, looking for his third straight win. He’ll get it. 8* Oakland

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians lost twice to the Royals yesterday as they were swept in a doubleheader. They lost the two seven-inning games by scores of 7-2 and 4-2. What makes those results quite shocking is the fact the Tribe has dominated the Royals this season. They won 11 of the first 12 head to head matchups. So history says it’s quite likely they’ll bounce back on Tuesday and I’m going to take them here. The home team didn’t get it done at the plate on Monday, but had previously scored 11+ runs in three of their last four games. They’ve also got a red hot starter in Cal Quantrill set to toe the rubber this evening. 

Quantrill has won six of his last seven decisions and posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP his L7 starts overall. He’s pitched much better than his season-long TSR of 8-12 would seem to indicate. As I just alluded to, recently the results have been more favorable for Quantrill and the Indians. The right-hander is coming off B2B wins over the Minnesota Twins where he allowed just four runs and six hits over the course of 14 ⅓ IP. Three of the four runs allowed were unearned. Quantrill is also unbeaten at Progressive Field this season with a 4-0 WL record in 12 starts here. 

Kansas City had lost four of five coming into the series, all at home, and they generally do not hit well on the road (.234). So yesterday’s results were definitely “out of the ordinary” for them. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the starting nod Tuesday and he’s really struggled in September, posting a 9.28 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He also wasn’t very good when he faced Cleveland back on May 3rd. Quantrill won his lone start vs. the Royals this year and the Indians entered yesterday with an 18-9 record this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Cleveland  

8* Atlanta (9:40 ET): The Braves picked up a much needed win on Sunday, shutting out the Giants 3-0. Not only did they enable them to avoid being swept, but it also ended a four-game losing streak. Fortunately, they now get to start the week by playing an Arizona team that has the worst record in all of baseball. The D’backs have been a disaster here in 2021, dropping 36.7 units at the betting window and losing 101 of their 149 games. Even at home, they are just 28-43. An easy call on Monday night. 

It was last month when I went on the record and predicted the Braves would go on a major run. They did just that, seizing control of the National League East. The reason I continue to be so bullish on the Braves is because of their run differential. They are +98 YTD while all the other teams in the division have negative run differentials. That being said, their lead is down to two games and they can’t afford any more stumbles like last week. There was probably no better time for the D’backs to show up on the schedule. 

Arizona is off a 7-6 loss in Houston where they blew a two-run lead in the bottom of the eighth. So on top of being bad, morale is likely in the toilet after Sunday’s loss. The D’backs are 27-72 off a loss this season. They’ve lost five of six and 11 of 14 overall. Huascar Ynoa should take care of business here for the Braves as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 14 starts this year. That includes a quality start (which Atlanta won) vs. the D’backs back in April. Starting for Arizona will be Humberto Mejia, who was just recalled from Triple-A Reno. It’s just his third start of ‘21 and the team has lost the previous two. 8* Atlanta

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): If you’re a regular follower of mine, then you know I’ve got no hesitation to fade a Mariners team that has grossly overachieved in 2021. Seattle comes into Monday sporting an 80-69 record, which has them still viable in the AL Wild Card chase. But it’s a minor miracle that they are still in playoff contention considering they’ve been outscored this season by 62 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have only 68 wins this season. The 12-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily MLB’s largest. In fact, no other team has overachieved by more than five games. 

Though they did win on Sunday, 7-1 at Kansas City, the Mariners have started to slip. They’ve lost five of eight overall to fall four games back in the Wild Card hunt. If you are perplexed as to how a team can be outscored by 62 runs and still be 11 games over .500, know that Seattle has 31 one-run victories and 13 wins in extra innings, both of which are the most in MLB. They’ve had extremely good fortune to this point, but I am on the record as saying they will NOT make the playoffs. I’m too big of a believer in run differential to think this substandard team can finish in the top five in the American League.

This is a huge game for Oakland as they are also trying to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. After sweeping the Angels over the weekend, the A’s have won five straight. They are two games ahead of Seattle but still two back of the WC. The A’s have revenge here as they’ve lost five in a row to the M’s, including a two-game sweep at home last month. But they’ve got Sean Manaea on the hill Monday and he’s 2-0 this year vs. Seattle, having allowed just one run on seven hits in 16 IP. He’s got 21 strikeouts in the two starts, one of which was a CG shutout. Seattle is dead last in MLB in team batting average, not to mention bottom five in OBP and slugging. So I don’t see them solving Manaea here. Manaea also has 21 strikeouts in 19 IP here in September. He’s a much better option than Seattle’s Tyler Anderson. 10* Oakland

10* NY Mets (7:08 ET): So I took the Mets on the run line (+1.5) Friday and that won. The Mets didn’t win the game mind you (lost 4-3), but that’s what the RL is for. I played the money line in last night’s game and that was NOT a success for the Mets or I as they lost 5-3. It’s now six straight losses to the Phillies going back to June and also a five-game overall losing skid for the Mets with all five losses coming here at Citi Field. But I’m going to take them to avoid the sweep Sunday night as this is the first time in the series that the odds are clearly in their favor. 

Philadelphia, even with a four-game win streak, still has a negative run differential and losing road record. Kyle Gibson is who they are starting tonight and he has not fared well of late, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his last three starts, all of which the Phillies have lost. He also has a 5.12 ERA in four previous starts against the Mets. I know the Phils have been gaining on both the Braves in the NL East and the Wild Card, but this is not a team that I’m sold on at all. 

Prior to the current losing skid, the Mets were 43-28 at Citi Field this season. They don’t allow many runs at home (just 3.6 per game), so it’s certainly been a disappointing stretch for them. They led the NL East most of the season, but hit the skids in August and are just 16-29 the L45 games. Still, they have a very similar run differential to the Phillies even though they’ve fallen behind in the standings. Rich Hill, a veteran southpaw, starts tonight looking to continue a recent string of strong outings. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in each of his last seven starts. 10* NY Mets

10* NY Mets (7:15 ET): The Mets have lost four straight, all at home, and they’ve also lost five in a row to the Phillies. So the fact they are playing on the Phillies on Saturday will not exactly have most running to the betting window to take the Mets. But, for the record, I did cash them on the run line (+1.5) yesterday. The revenge angle, from a previous sweep, is still in play here. Like I wrote in yesterday’s analysis, the Phillies are a sub-.500 road team and they have a negative run differential on the season. That previous sweep of the Mets took place in Philly and I do not see history repeating itself this weekend. This time, I’ll go with the Mets on the money line. 

The Phillies have not made the playoffs in a decade, which is actually the longest active drought in the National League. They entered the day two games back of division leading Atlanta in the NL East and 2.5 games back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card. Again though, I view them as a below average ballclub. Aaron Nola, who gets the start tonight, has struggled recently. He has a 7.54 ERA his L3 starts and the road hasn’t been particularly kind to him all season. Nola has a 6-10 TSR away from home in 2021 with a 5.57 ERA. He lost as a massive ML favorite (-280) his last time out, at home vs. Colorado. 

The Mets led this division for 89 days at one point, but have had a tough second half with a poor record in one-run games. But I believe they are set to finally break through tonight. While they’re not going to make the playoffs, I view them as being pretty equal to the likes of the Phillies and Cardinals, so it seems unfortunate they’ve lost four in a row to those two teams this week. Carlos Carrasco has a 3-0 TSR in September and recently led a win over the Yankees last Sunday night. Opposing teams hit just .219 at Citi Field. 10* NY Mets

9* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Mets +1.5. The Mets were swept by the Phillies back in early August, putting them in this revenge situation. What I like besides the revenge angle is the fact that the Mets had Thursday off and the Phillies didn’t. The Mets certainly needed the day off after being swept again, this time by the Cardinals here at home. It’s been a rough second half of the season in Queens as the team has gone from leading the NL East to below .500. But I see the Metropolitans doing no worse than a one-run loss today. 

The Phillies were 17-8 winners yesterday over the Cubs. Something worth mentioning about that game is that the Phils trailed at one point by seven runs. They became the first team in the modern era to win a game by 9+ runs after trailing by seven or more. When it comes to playoff contention, they are in far better position than the Mets, only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card and three games back of the division lead. But this club is only 32-40 on the road this year and 8-8 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. So I really like the +1.5 option we are getting here, especially at this price. On their last road trip, Philadelphia lost two of three to both Miami and Milwaukee with one of the two wins coming by a single run. 

Fading Phillies’ starter Zach Wheeler may seem risky, given he has 18 quality starts under his belt and 12 of those saw him allow 1 or 0 ER. The last two times Wheeler has faced the Mets, he’s had their number; allowing no runs in 16 IP. The last one was a complete game. But while he’s been good recently, Wheeler had a rough August (allowed 4+ ER five times) and his numbers on the road aren’t nearly as good as they are at home. I feel that Mets’ starter Taijuan Walker (1.041 WHIP at home) has pitched better than his record shows. This will be his fifth time facing Philadelphia in 2021 and he has a 3-1 TSR. Considering the Phillies trailed the Cubs by seven y’day, would you really be that surprised to see them lose here? 9* NY Mets +1.5

10* Under Indians/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees could not finish off the sweep in Baltimore yesterday as they went down 3-2. They were one strike away from winning, but a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth allowed the Orioles to tie the game and then it was over in the 10th. The loss leaves the Yankees one-half game back of the Blue Jays and Red Sox for the Wild Card as they’ve now dropped 13 of 19 overall. A favorable six-game homestand begins tonight with a visit from Cleveland, but I have my doubts about a Yankees team that is only averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. Take the Under here.

Cleveland comes in on the heels of a 12-3 win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Tribe is looking to make it B2B wins for the first time in over two weeks here. But despite what they did at the plate 48 hours ago, the Indians are also not a strong offensive club. They’ve been no hit THREE times in 2021, the most recent one coming less than a week ago. Prior to erupting for 12 runs in their last game, the Indians had scored three or fewer in eight of nine contests. I expect them to revert back to those previous struggles tonight against a familiar face in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber, who won two Cy Youngs with Cleveland, has had a bit of a rocky stretch since returning from the injured list. But with a 2.79 ERA at Yankees Stadium this year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track. For the Yankees’ sake, Kluber better be sharp tonight because I’m also expecting a strong outing from Cleveland starter Zach Plesac, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Plesac had been getting a ton of run support before his team was no-hit his last time out. The amount of run support (7+ runs in six straight starts) made little sense given the Indians’ offensive woes and as we saw in the last start, it’s not likely to continue. 10* Under Indians/Yankees

10* Under Tigers/Rays (7:10 ET): This is a rematch from last weekend, a series in which the Tigers surprisingly won two of the three games. The three games were all pretty high-scoring. Each had nine or more total runs scored with the two Tigers’ wins seeing 14 and 15 total runs scored. Detroit continued to play the role of spoiler earlier this week by Milwaukee twice. So that’s four wins in five games for them, all against current division leaders. But all the wins also came at home where they are now a respectable 39-36 on the year. I expect them to struggle more on the road this weekend, especially at the plate. 

Tampa Bay is still going to be fine, even after losing two of three in Toronto to start the week. Their lead in the AL East is still eight games and they are the only team in the American League with 90 wins on the season. They could not get much offense going in Toronto though and that’s a bit of a concern. The Rays scored just six runs in the three games. Now they face a pitching staff that held Milwaukee to just one run and seven hits the last two days. It’ll be Tyler Alexander starting for the Tigers and not only did he just hold the Rays to one run in 4 ⅓ IP last week, he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.133 WHIP his L3 starts.

But for Tampa Bay, the best thing about being back home is that they don’t give up many runs here. They allow just 3.3 per game, the fewest by any AL team. Opponents are batting just .216 for the year at Tropicana Field. Kevin Cash will go with an opener on Thursday night, Louis Head, before giving the baseball to Dietrich Enns. Enns looked dominant the last time we saw him as he tossed four shutout innings and didn’t even allow a single baserunner. He had six strikeouts as well. The Tigers only scored five runs the last two days and two of the last four games have seen them finish with only three hits. This has all the makings of a low-scoring series opener. 10* Under Tigers/Rays

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Colorado has won four of five - all on the road. That’s odd considering they are still a terrible 22-51 away from home this season. I just can’t see this recent road “surge” continuing against a Braves team I have a lot of respect for. It was about a month ago that I predicted the Braves were about to make a move in the NL East and that’s exactly what happened. Since August 2nd, they’ve gone 24-13 and have taken a 4.5 game division lead. My confidence in them stems from a YTD run differential that’s vastly superior to the rest of the teams in their division. They’ve outscored opponents by 99 runs in 2021 while every other NL East club has been outscored. Look for the Braves to win Wednesday.

It was 5-4 Rockies last night, although the Braves had one more hit. Colorado typically struggles to score runs when they’re not swinging the bats in Coors Field. They average just 3.4 runs per game on the road while batting a collective .215. The 2.4 rpg gap between what they average at home vs. the road is easily the largest in all of MLB. The striking home vs. road split is nothing new for this franchise, but this year has seen them take it to a bit of an extreme. Speaking of struggling on the road, Wednesday’s starter Antonio Senzatela has a 2-9 team start record away from home. He’s been good recently, including a win over the Braves earlier this month, but I don’t expect that to continue here. 

Atlanta will send Huascar Ynoa to the mound tonight. You wouldn’t know it from his rather pedestrian WL record, but Ynoa has pitched very well this season, especially at home where he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. Ynoa came out on the losing end against Senzatela on September 3rd, so he’s got a little “personal revenge” to exact Wednesday. Ynoa allowed just two runs on three hits over 5 IP last Thursday against Washington, a game that the Braves won 7-6. The Braves have lost B2B games only one time in September. While those losses were both against Colorado, that was in Coors Field. The Rockies are just 14-44 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons. 7* Atlanta

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I lost with the Mets yesterday. It was a painful defeat as Javy Baez tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the ninth with a HR. But it wasn’t meant to be as the home team failed to score in the 10th (despite having a runner at third with only one out) and then the Cardinals struck back for three runs in the top of the 11th. The Mets did manage to score twice in their final at-bat, but that still left them one short. They now are four games back of the Braves for the division lead and 5.5 games behind the Cardinals for the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Cards have won four in a row to move to six games over .500 for the first time in over three months. But this feels like a “sell high” opportunity as they still have a near-identical YTD run differential as the Mets. 

The Mets normally don’t give up a ton of runs here at Citi Field. The 3.5 per game that they allow are the third fewest of any team at home in all of MLB. Only the Dodgers and Rays - two of the best teams - allow fewer. Opposing teams have hit just .216 here for the season. So it’s definitely been surprising to see St. Louis come in and put up seven runs in two straight games. It’s not like the Cardinals are some offensive powerhouse either. The good news for the Mets is that Tylor Megill, who is starting today, is coming off perhaps his best outing of the season. He held the Yankees to just two runs and four hits over seven innings last Friday and had 10 strikeouts. 

The Mets are 20-7 as home favorites of -125 to -175 this season, so if Megill can produce a start similar to what we saw from him his last time out, then you’ve got to figure they’ll be in good shape here. They led going into the eighth inning last night and I thought they should have won it in the 10th. Unfortunately, Francisco Lindor’s inning-ending double play was a killer. The Mets will face Jon Lester tonight and while Lester has been good of late, he has a 4.96 ERA and 1.677 WHIP on the road, so I am expecting some regression. The Mets have had poor luck in one-run games down the stretch (4-15 L19), but I think they are due for a win in this one. Look for them to avoid the sweep at home. 10* NY Mets

8* Boston (4:10 ET): I generally do not hesitate to fade Seattle, though this will be my first time taking a position in this series. Now I know that betting against the Mariners has generally not been wise in 2021. They are up 26.3 units, which is second most overall, only trailing a Giants team that is way out in front of everybody. But I’ve been selective about going against them and actually have a pretty strong record to show for it. As I’ve made clear throughout the year, the M’s are completely overrated and nowhere near as good as their record (now 78-65). They’ve been outscored by 60 runs, a differential where you’d expect them to only have 66 wins. No other team in MLB has exceeded its expected win total by more than five! 

Mariners’ manager Scott Servais using the term “fun differential” (to mock his team’s poor run differential) quite frankly makes me nauseous. So I was happy to see his team lose 8-4 last night here at home to the Red Sox. That was after they won by one-run in Monday’s opener. No team has more one-run wins this season than Seattle’s 31, which is why they are the only team in the American League to have a winning record and negative run differential. The offense ranks dead last in baseball in batting average plus they are bottom five in both OBP and slugging. This afternoon’s starting pitcher Marco Gonzales does have a 6-0 TSR since 8/12, but he’s faced both Texas and Arizona twice. 

Boston, like Seattle, is trying to nail down one of the two Wild Card spots. I like their chances a lot better compared to the Mariners’. The Red Sox offense is third in batting average and second in slugging. They’ve scored the fourth most runs in all of baseball. Tanner Houck, who had a great September last year, has bounced back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A here in 2021. Looking back at those offensive numbers for Seattle, this may be Houck’s most favorable matchup of this season. The Red Sox are simply a much better team than the Mariners and Gonzales has not fared well against them in the past (5.87 ERA in three career starts). 8* Boston

8* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants hammered the Padres Monday night, 9-1, thus preserving their lead in the NL West (2.5 games over the Dodgers) while simultaneously knocking the Padres out of a tie (w/ the Reds) for the second Wild Card spot. Last night’s win also got them into the playoffs. They are the first team in baseball to clinch a postseason spot. San Diego is desperately trying to make it three teams from the NL West in the playoffs (Dodgers are a lock), but they’ve been a sub-.500 team in the second half of the season and as a result are -29.6 units at the betting window, second worst in all of MLB! 

Meanwhile, the Giants have won eight in a row and have the best overall record in baseball. While the Padres have been huge money-burners this season (see above), the Giants are #1 in the league (by a wide margin) at +39.8 units. They’ve been priced as a 91-win team, so they’re winning the games they’re supposed to win. Compare that to the Padres, who have been priced as a 115-win team, but have won only 74 times. The Giants are the only team to have 45+ wins both at home and on the road. They’ve dominated the division (42-19) and are 61-33 off a win this season.

As they look to make it nine straight wins, San Francisco turns to Anthony DeSclafani. Winless over his L4 starts, DeSclafani will relish the opportunity to face an opponent that is hitting below .200 (.189) its L7 games while scoring an average of just 2.4 runs. He generally doesn’t allow more than 3 ER and has an 8-3 TSR at home. San Diego’s rotation happens to be in tatters right now, which is why you have the likes of Jake Arrieta starting a big game. Arrieta has an 0-10 TSR his L10 outings and has a 7.03 ERA/1.722 WHIP this season. The Giants have scored six or more runs in each of their eight straight wins. This one seems simple, no? 8* San Francisco

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): In the American League, you’ve got five teams fighting for two Wild Card sports. Here in the National League, it’s five teams fighting for one spot. Whoever doesn’t win the NL West (Giants or Dodgers) will be the top WC and there’s currently a 16.5 game gap between them and the rest of the WC field. The Cardinals and Mets are two of the five battling for that last spot and there’s no doubt which team is happier following last night’s 7-0 game. The former is now on a three-game win streak and has moved within one-half game of the WC. The latter is now 3.5 games back (and a game under .500) after being blanked Monday. But I see the home team getting its revenge tonight. 

This is a bad matchup for St. Louis.. Not only are the Redbirds 5-17 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175, but they will be facing Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.87 ERA in 30 starts. There have only been a few occasions this season where Stroman has given up more than 3 ER. It hasn’t happened over any of his L7 starts and the last one saw Stroman go 6 ⅓ innings while allowing just one run on four hits. He also had seven strikeouts and no walks. Sadly, the Mets lost that game to Miami (3-2), but they had previously won three straight Stroman starts. St. Louis is only hitting .206 its L7 games and scoring an average of 2.9 rpg. In more than half (6) of their L10 games they’ve been held to two runs or fewer. 

Last night marked the 13th time this season that the Mets were shutout. They are 6-6 off their previous 12 times. However, look for them to have a strong bounce back night at the plate here. They are 5-1 off their last six losses. They will be facing Jake Woodford, who is making just his fifth start of the year. It’s a big spot for him. Woodford has averaged only four innings per start his last three times out while posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP. I bring that up because the Cardinals’ bullpen will obviously be asked to carry a significant part of the load tonight. While they were surprisingly up to the task Monday, that was for only three innings. The Cards’ bullpen ERA is 4.73 on the road this season. 8* NY Mets