7* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): This was supposed to Blake Snell going for the Rays, but both he and Charlie Morton have been pushed back a day for rest purposes. Thus, it will be an unannounced "opener" followed by Ryan Yarbrough instead. I think the Rays will do just fine though against a Cleveland team that just got swept at home for the first time in two year. The Indians' hitting has become a major concern, ranking in the bottom four in the American League in runs scored. No pitching staff in baseball has given up fewer runs than has Tampa Bay's. 

When I took Cleveland back on Monday, I thought they had a good chance to build off the "momentum" (still hate that word) from the previous series when they took three of four from Baltimore. Instead, not only did they lose Monday to the A's, they were swept. Turns out the offense that "woke up" versus the Orioles was probably just a byproduct of facing the worst staff in MLB. Oakland held the Tribe to just nine runs in three games and I simply don't see the home team turning things around here against a Tampa Bay staff that is holding opponents to 3.3 runs per game and a .217 batting average. 

Yarbrough is being recalled from Triple A where he posted a 2.14 ERA and 30-3 KW ratio. He has made five relief appearances for the big league club already. He faced Cleveland once, last season, and allowed just one run on two hits. The Rays, who beat the Dodgers yday 8-1, are 15-7 on the road and actually slightly underperfoming according to run differential. Cleveland sends Adam Plutko to the bump tonight and this will be just his second start. He allowed just a solo HR his first time out, but that was against Baltimore. It's a big step up in class here to face one of the American League's top teams. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (12:10 ET): The Nationals season just keeps getting more and more disappointing as they are facing the prospect of being swept here by the Mets. Keep in mind that the Mets were floundering in their own right coming into this series. They'd been shutout in B2B games (by Miami!) last weekend, a pair of losses where they had only three hits. I'm truly confounded by Washington's poor start to the season as this was a team I had vastly improving in 2019. I know there have been injuries and the bullpen has been poor. But I still expect better out of the Nation's Capital. 

Enter Stephen Strasburg to save the day. He'll get the start Thursday afternoon and the last time he took the mound also happens to the last time the Nats won. It's the team's lone victory in the L6 games. Despite only having a 5-5 TSR, Strasburg has done "his part" this season by posting a 3.32 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He's already faced the Mets twice in '19, the last time saw him throw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, three-hit bal in this stadiu. Five of Strasburg's last six starts have seen him surrender 2 ER or fewer. 

The Mets will go w/ Steven Matz, who is unbeaten here at home (3-0 TSR). He only made in 3 2/3 innings his last start, which was a loss at Miami. Like Strasburg, Matz didn't allow any runs the last time he faced today's opponent. It should be noted that all six Mets' runs yday came in a stunning eighth inning rally. It was the second straight come from behind victory. Again, the Nationals are better than this. They are 71-28 in Strasburg's last 99 starts, including 16-2 if it's Game 4 of a series. 8* Washington

8* Atlanta (9:45 ET): These teams come into Wednesday having split the first two of this four-game set. The Braves won the opener on Monday, 4-1, but then lost last night by a score of 4-3. Note that it appeared they were well on their way to winning a second straight, but gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth w/ the game-winning hit (2-run single) coming w/ two outs. But it looks like the oddsmakers took a pretty clear position on tonight's matchup and sharp money came in and immediately backed the road team. For good reason too; Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 this season as a -125 to -175 ML favorite on the road and 14-5 the L3 seasons. 

The Braves were NOT in this price range for yesterday's game, but were Monday (closed -140). Had they closed the deal last night, then Atlanta would be 6-1 its last seven games. During that stretch, they've scored 5.6 runs per game and hit a collective .283. As they look to bounce back here, they'll send Max Fried to the hill. Last week, Fried threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball and that was against a Milwaukee lineup that typically has little difficulty scoring runs. The Giants, on the other hand, are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball. Fried should be effective yet again here.

The Giants average only 3.1 rpg at home this year while hitting a collective .207. Both of those numbers rank 29th in all of baseball (home games only). This SF club may only be 21-26 and in last place in the NL West standings, but they've actually overachieved some in my eyes. Last night's win improved them to a MLB-best 13-4 in one-run games. By run differential (-44), they've played to the level of an 18-win team. Starter Jeff Samardzija threw a season-low 68 pitches his last time out, but the former Notre Dame wide receiver has a 6.28 ERA/1.465 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 8* Atlanta

8* Under D'backs/Padres (3:45 ET): The first two games of this series both stayed Under as the home team (San Diego) won a pair of low-scoring games, 2-1 and 3-2. The Padres are now tied (w/ the Giants) for the most one-run victories in all of MLB at 13. That's really helped them keep afloat as they've actually been outscored on the season, primarily due to an anemic offense that ranks near the bottom in runs scored (25th). But as we've seen the last two days, Arizona isn't doing much at the plate either right now. So for a third straight day, this series produces an Under. 

San Diego had actually dropped six of seven coming into this series. They still have not scored more than four runs in any of the previous eight games and are batting a collective .194 in the past seven. On the pitching front, they'll send Eric Lauer to the bump for Getaway Day. Save for one bad outing (which came at Coors Field, so that's excusable), Lauer has pitched very well of late. He's given up 3 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. Last time out, he held the Pirates to just two runs (one unearned) in 5 2/3 IP. This will be his third time facing Arizona this season, so he's familiar w/ the lineup. 

The D'backs counter w/ Merrill Kelly, who tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames his last time out. Again, like Lauer, Kelly had one bad outing this year. But other than that, he's been quite effective. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his nine starts, so to me the ERA & WHIP are misleading (same thing for Lauer). Arizona has only scored five runs total in its last three games (only 13 hits), so they certainly aren't hitting either. In fact, over the last seven games, they're batting a collective .227. The Under has hit in San Diego's last seven Wednesday games. 8* Under D'backs/Padres

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This play sets up very similar to yday's 10* SUPER POWER winner on Colorado over Pittsburgh. The only difference being is this time we're playing ON a team who, according to run differential, has underachieved (in terms of wins & losses) so far this season. Yesterday, it was playing AGAINST an overachiever in Pittsburgh, who has somehow managed to stay above .500 despite a very poor YTD run differential. Today we're looking at a Reds team that is far better than its record shows as despite being four games below .500, they've actually outscored their opponents by 27 runs over the course of the season! 

To put the Reds' YTD run differential in its proper perspective, note that it's second best in the division and fourth best overall in the National League! But perhaps yday was the start of a long overdue surge. They shut Milwaukee out 3-0, the MLB-leading 7th time they've shut an opponent out this season. The number of shutouts obviously has a somewhat drastic effect on the run differential as the Reds' staff has given up the second fewest runs in all of baseball (#1 in NL). Milwaukee did not have its best hitter (Christian Yelich) in the lineup Tuesday and as as result they managed only three hits and never got a runner past second base. Yelich is being reevaluated for today, but probably won't play given it's a day game. He's already missed a number of games due to the back issues. 

Today's starting pitching matchup brings two of the top four pitchers in ERA against one another. Luis Castillo has a 1.90 ERA (and 0.957 WHIP) in 10 starts while Milwaukee's Zach Davies has a 1.54 ERA (and 1.177 WHIP). So this shapes up as another pitchers duel, which is probably the way the Reds want it. Without Yelich, you have to wonder about the Brewers' offense. Let's also go back to the subject of run differential as the Reds are +27 while Milwaukee is only +11. This Reds team is vastly underrated right now. 10* Cincinnati

10* Colorado (7:05 ET): So I've had an eye on this matchup for the last several days. The reason being is that Pittsburgh is a team I'll be looking to fade more and more. This is because they have overachieved greatly in getting to 24-20 on the season. Despite being above .500, the Pirates have actually been outscored this season by 39 runs, which is easily the worst differential in their division and third worst overall in the National League. The gap between their actual and expected win total (+7) is the largest in all of MLB right now. Considering they just won three in a row, it's "high time" they "paid the piper." 

Colorado comes into PNC Park on a four-game losing skid. They were just swept in Philadelphia, though every game was close and two of the three losses were one-run games. The Rockies excelled in one-run games LY (going 21-14), but as is often the case, things go "sideways" the following year and they are just 5-9 in such games in 2019. But help is on the way Monday in the form of starter German Marquez, who has been outstanding outside of Coors Field this season. In five road starts, Marquez has a 2.55 ERA and 0.793 WHIP. 

Marquez has won both of his previous starts here at PNC Park, posting a 2.45 ERA. Even if he didn't have those career marks - or a strong resume on the road - this still shapes up as a strong fade on Pittsburgh. Mark my words that the Pirates are a team set to regress heavily, much in the same way I predicted Seattle would a month ago, or even Detroit more recently. The starting rotation is NOT in good shape and tonight's starter Chris Archer happens to be 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.66 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. By the way, Colorado only allows 3.9 rpg on the road, which is 6th best in all of MLB. 10* Colorado

10* Over Yankees/Orioles (7:05 ET): When the Orioles pitching staff is involved, plenty of runs are to be expected. They just made a Cleveland offense - that had previously been scuffling - look great over the weekend. Twice the Indians put 10+ runs on the board, including a 10-0 shutout Sunday. For a Yankees team that just put 13 on the board yday - against a Rays pitching staff that is among the best in baseball - they should have little difficulty scoring in this series, this game in particular. They come in averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. Take the Over tonight. 

Baltimore is giving up an unthinkable 6.7 rpg at Camden Yards this season. Only one team is allowing a higher number of runs per game at home and as per usual it's Colorado at the bottom. Baltimore is also 29th overall in runs allowed, so it's not like the poor pitching at home is anything unique. But home games have been higher scoring overall. Early in the year, the O's hosted the Yankees in a three-game set and all three games went Over. The Over is now 35-11 in the L46 meetings between these AL East rivals and that's after the last two both went Under.

Starting here for the Yanks will be J.A. Happ, who has pitched well on the road. But a) the Yankees figure to score enough here that even if Happ is good, it won't matter and b) Happ's overall numbers indicate that his YTD road performance may be a mirage. He has a 4.44 ERA in nine starts overall and two starts against Baltimore both went Over w/ neither seeing Happ make it out of the 5th inning. The Orioles will counter w/ Andrew Cashner, who did pitch well at Yankee Stadium last week (part of a doubleheader). But he also gave up six runs to the Yankees when he faced them on Opening Day. The Over is 20-5-1 in the Yankees' last 26 road games. 10* Over Yankees/Orioles

7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a lack of hitting and some injuries, the Indians have stayed viable in the American League and would actually be a Wild Card if the playoffs started today. Obviously, we're a longways away from October, but I don't think the Tribe should be that discouraged at all about their current position. As hot as Minnesota has been, it's only a 4.5 game deficit in the division. I still project Cleveland to win 90+ games this season. They just took care of business over the weekend, taking three of four from lowly Baltimore, and now have another ideal matchup on the docket. There's some revenge at play here too as the Indians dropped 2 of 3 out in Oakland earlier in the month. 

The A's come to Cleveland on a three-game win streak. It should have been four, but Sunday's game in Detroit was suspended due to rain. Before that, they had completely emasculated the Tigers, outscoring them 28-6 in the first three games. But Detroit is also really bad. Before that series, the A's dropped a pair of games to a Seattle team that has the worst record in baseball since April 27th. The three-game series w/ Cleveland was before that and note both Oakland victories came in the final at-bat. 

I like Carlos Carrasco starting for the Indians here as he has a 1.83 ERA and 0.763 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't given up any runs in four of his previous six starts and has a 2.49 ERA and 0.831 WHIP pitching at home this year. The team has won each of his last three starts as he's working on a 12-inning scoreless streak. Carrasco has also pitched well in the past vs. Oakland, going 4-1 w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The same can be said for Brett Anderson against Cleveland (0.82 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 5 appearances), but Monday's starter for the A's is also 1-3 in his L5 starts and has allowed 4 ER in B2B outings. 7* Cleveland

8* Under Pirates/Padres (4:10 ET):  Pittsburgh, like Detroit, is a team that has a troubling run differential. They've been outscored by 41 runs this season. While not nearly as bad as Detroit's run differential, what's perhaps more strange about the Bucs' is they actually have a winning record in spite of that negative run differential! This is a team I'll probably look to fade in the coming weeks, but for now let's look at the Under as they wrap up a four-game set w/ San Diego Sunday afternoon. The Padres are looking to earn a split here after losing each of the L2 days.

The last two games, again both Pirates' wins, have gone Over. Pittsburgh put seven on the board last night, but I wouldn't go looking for a repeat of that as they are second to last in the National League in runs scored (Miami). There's a pretty sizable gap between them and most of the other teams in the division. Note every other team in the Central, besides Pittsburgh, has a positive run differential this season. One thing that is keeping them afloat is that they are a respectable 6th in the NL in runs allowed. Today's starter Joe Musgrove was able to shake off a couple bad starts to throw seven innings of one-hit ball his last time out. That was in Arizona. Opponents are hitting just .209 off him for the season. 

One of the teams ahead of Pittsburgh in the National League, in terms of fewest runs allowed, is San Diego. But they too have an issue scoring runs as they are third from the bottom in the Senior Circuit. So, as you can see, this is a matchup tailor-made for an Under. The Padres go w/ Cal Quantrill in this spot as he's looking to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. He's allowed just four runs in 10 IP so far as a starter. The Pirates homered four times yesterday, but Quantrill has yet to give up any. The Padres are hotting just .223 at home this year. 8* Under Pirates/Padres

10* Seattle (4:10 ET): Surprise, surprise. I have been intensly critical of Seattle over the last month and feel I was "early" on the bandwagon pointing out that a massive decline was due to set in. The Mariners won 13 of their first 15 games, but since that time are just 9-24. They massively overachieved last year in getting to just 89 wins, so for me, a sub-.500 finish this year was all but assured. They're now well on their way to that, but I feel we can now grab them at a great "buy low" spot as yesterday may have been their nadir of the season. Look for the M's to avoid the four-game sweep at home.

This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Twins outscoring the Mariners 36-11. They've won every game by at least five runs and yesterday was a beatdown of epic proportions as the final score was 18-4. Minnesota homered six times in the game, the fifth time they've hit 5+ HR in a game this year, which is the first time a team has ever done that before June. Having homered in 13 straight games, the Twins are now tied for the MLB lead in home runs, ironically w/ Seattle. I'm 2-0 in this series by the way, having cashed the Over Thursday and the Under Friday.

But as bad as things have gone the L3 days for Seattle, I think they're a great value today. Rarely do home teams get swept in a four-game series.  They send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound this afternoon and he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing three solo home runs in his last time out. I still have my suspicions about Twins starter Kyle Gibson, despite a good start to the season, record-wise. Gibson may have a 6-2 TSR, but he has an ERA north of 4.00.  10* Seattle

8* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): These teams failed to go Over for me yesterday, but I'll try again today, noting recent form for both starters isn't exactly inspiring stuff. Kyle Freeland of Colorado has a 7.41 ERA and 1.588 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over. He's also been tagged for at least five runs in four of nine starts this year. He'll be opposed by Jerad Eickhoff, who has seen all five starts this year stay Under, but the last one saw him give up five runs in only four innings. Take the Over. 

Colorado now has lost three straight one-run games. They haven't managed much at the plate in this series, scoring only five runs on 14 hits in the two games. Prior to this visit to the City of Brotherly Love, the Rockies had seen the Over go 11-1 their L12 games. Now that comes w/ a bit of a caveat as all 12 games were either played w/ a DH or in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Still, they managed to score 10+ runs five times. They are more than capable of producing a big day at the plate on Sunday. 

The Phillies haven't had much offense in this series, but they haven't needed it either. I think they're in for a big day today against Freeland, who has had major problems with the long ball recently. He allowed three solo HR's in his last outing, upping the total # of HR's allowed to nine over the previous four starts. Eickhoff had been pitching well previous to the last outing, but he also has a 7.50 ERA in five previous games against the Rockies. 8* Over Rockies/Phillies

8* Over Cubs/Nationals (7:15 ET): The Cubs came out and crushed the Nationals last night, winning by a score of 14-6. They jumped on the home team early, scoring three runs in the first two innings, then poured it on late w/ 11 runs over the final three frames to put the game away for good. In a rare ocurrence, Kris Bryant became just the 12th player in MLB history to homer in three consecutive innings. Obviously, we don't need nearly that many runs to be scored for an Over. With both teams having suspect bullpens, this total looks very low. Take the Over.

The Cubs needed a game like yday after they'd lost each of the previous two days to the (underrated) Reds. Tonight they send Jon Lester to the mound and he's admittedly been red hot of late w/ a 0.00 ERA and 1.017 WHIP his L3 starts. He's working on a 19 2/3 scoreless inning streak, but has given up 18 hits during that time. So I think some regression may be in store for Mr. Lester Saturday night. Then there is the Cubs' bullpen, which has a 5.74 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the road. Speaking of the road, Cubs' away games this year have been very high scoring (Over is 14-6). They are averaging 6.6 rpg (#1 in MLB) while giving up 5.2. This is a stark contrast to the games at Wrigley where they are allowing the FEWEST runs per game in all of baseball. 

Speaking of bad bullpens, it doesn't get any worse than the Nationals, whose relivers have posted a gaudy 7.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP at home this season. Last night was a bad effort even by this pen's low standard. The Cubs homered six times yesterday off Nationals' pitching. Stephen Strasburg will be leaned on heavily here and he's just hoping his teammates can score some runs, something that hasn't happened in his last two outings (both 6-0 losses). I think Strasburg will get some run support this time around, but like Lester, look for him to also struggle more than usual here. 8* Over Cubs/Nationals

10* Over Rockies/Phillies (4:05 ET): This series opened w/ the Phillies winning 5-4 yesterday, a nice reprieve for them as they'd just dropped three in a row here at home to Milwaukee. Colorado had the benefit of an off-day going into yday, but showed little life w/ only five hits, so in some ways they were fortunate to score four runs. Last night was the first time in over two weeks that the Rockies didn't get to enjoy the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field or the use of the DH (played two games in Boston). But note their previous two road games in a NL park (Milwaukee) yielded an impressive 22 runs scored. They've scored 10 or more runs five times in the L13 games overall. 

We've got two struggling starters on the bump for Saturday. Colorado's Antonio Senzatela has posted a 7.04 ERA and 1.434 WHIP his L3 starts, upping those numbers to 5.34 and 1.395 respectively for the season. Obviously, he's got to deal w/ the Coors effect too (works both ways for the Rockies!), but lately it hasn't mattered where Senzatela has pitched, the game has ended up high scoring. The last five Senzatela starts have all gone Over w/ a average of 15 total runs scored per game. This is right line w/ recent team results as the Over is 11-1-1 the L13 times the Rockies have take the field. 

The Phillies counter w/ Aaron Nola, who is somehow unbeaten (3-0) in his nine starts (5-4 TSR) despite a 5.34 ERA and 1.395 WHIP. Like Senzatela, we've gotten mostly Overs out of Nola starts. The Over is 8-1 in his nine starts, including 3-0 the L3. Nola lasted only three innings his last time out. The Over has gone 8-2-1 the L11 times these teams have met at Citizens Bank Park (last night was the push). All signs point to this being a high-scoring game. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies

8* Under Twins/Mariners (10:10 ET): Yesterday, it was the Over that brought home the cash for me on this matchup. Today, it's time to look to go Under. Yes, in yesterday's analysis, I did write extensively about how the Mariners' offensive decline had been "offset" by them giving up runs in bunches recently. Sure enough, Thursday was a fine example of that. They lost 11-6 to the Twins and were down 9-1 by the fourth inning (which is when the Over hit). But a big difference here is the starting pitching, which should be a lot more solid than it looked on paper yday. Take the Under. 

Michael Pineda starting for the Twins yday was a big reason I had the Over. He actually wound up pitching relatively well, going seven innings while allowing only three runs. That's a good sign moving forward for a Minnesota team that has gotten some shockingly good starting pitching thus far (big reason why they lead the AL Central at 28-15). Tonight's starter is Martin Perez and he's 4-1 in six starts w/ a 2.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's been even better of late w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP his L3 starts. I see the trend continuing against a Seattle lineup that is hitting a collective .186 over the past week. 

Again, I'm not surprised to see the Mariners regressing so dramatically after a shocking 13-2 start to the season. I had them as one of the biggest regression teams in all of baseball coming into the year. While they have been giving up a ton of runs of late, Marco Gonzales should be a welcome sight on the mound as he sports a 2.93 home ERA. He has also not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. The Under is 5-1 this season when Gonzales starts on normal rest. The Under is also 4-0 in Perez's last four starts overall. 8* Under Twins/Mariners

10* Over Royals/Angels (10:07 ET): Neither team comes into this series in exactly "fine form." Kansas City really took one on the chin yday at home, losing 16-1 to Texas. They've lost four of five to stay in the AL Central basement and in all four losses, they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. Interestingly enough though, they scored 11 in the lone victory. They've also given up at least five runs in all five games. Now they'll head out on the road to face an Angels team that has also dropped two straight, although they had Thursday off. Take the Over in this one. 

The Angels played three one-run games in Minnesota to start the week, winning one and losing twice. Down four runs entering the ninth on Wednesday, a rally ultimately fell short. Still, the Halos have to be feeling good about their chances here considering not only KC's poor 5-14 road record, but also their own scoring average here at home, which currently sits at 5.8 runs per game. Over the L7 games, LA is averaging 6.3 rpg while batting a collective .335, so they can score. 

Neither starting pitcher inspires a lot of confidence here either. The Royals turn to Brad Keller, who has a 7.05 ERA and 1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up at least five runs in three of his last four starts. Last time out, he was charged w/ only five, but gave up six (one unearned) in a 7-0 loss to the Phillies. In three of his last five starts, Keller has had more walks that strikeouts, which is a bad sign. He leads the American League in walks w/ 32. As for the Angels, Matt Harvey has not been good, especially here at home where he sports a 10.05 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. Harvey has lasted less than five innings in five of his past seven starts. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Angels' last 11 games following a loss. 10* Over Royals/Angels 

10* Over Twins/Mariners (10:10 ET): This shapes up to be a pretty interesting weekend series in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle was the "toast of the town" early in the season as they started out 13-2. But I never bought in, noting not only the unsustainable number of home runs they were hitting, but also the "built-in" regression set to take hold from last year's overachievement. The Mariners may wish to share an "enjoy it while it lasts" w/ the visitors here as it's now the Twins that have taken the American League by storm w/ a 27-15 mark that leads the Central Division. 

Although their offense has slowed down greatly over the last month or so, Seattle is still among the top teams in the league in runs scored. Their games have continued to go Over at an incredible pace (31-11-3 Over in all games) as they're now giving up runs in bunches as well. They've even managed to surpass the hideous Baltimore staff as having given up the most runs in all of MLB. Tonight's starter is Erik Swanson and he knows as thing or two about giving up runs. He has a 6.15 ERA on the season and it's only gotten worse w/ him allowing seven runs in his last start (in just 4 2/3 innings), an ugly 14-1 loss to Boston. It was the second 14-1 loss for Seattle in Swanson's last three trips to the mound! 

Minnesota has gotten shockingly good pitching from some of its starters this year, but Michael Pineda hasn't really been one of them. He has a 5.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his eight starts. Like Swanson, he's trending in the wrong direction as those numbers have only gotten worse w/ recent efforts. Pineda allowed 3 HR's in his last start and was quite fortunate they were all of the solo variety. The Twins still lost, 5-3 to the Tigers, mind you. They won yday, holding off the Angels 8-7 at home. The road is where this offense has done its most damage though, averaging 6.0 rpg. 10* Over Twins/Mariners 

8* Oakland (1:10 ET): As we reach the quarter pole of this MLB season, I've been hard at work identifying teams that I feel have either over or underperformed. For the basis of this decision, I lean heavily on a team's run differential, which I have always felt is a much better predictor of future outcomes than say a team's actual won-loss record. One team that I feel is set to really hit the skids is Detroit. Sure, things haven't been that rosy already w/ them coming into today's game at 18-23 overall. But considering the Tigers have been outscored by 67 runs so far (3rd worst in MLB), they should probably be even worse. 

Detroit has a difference of +5 when it comes to actual vs. expected win total. Being outscored by 67 runs puts them at the "expectancy" of a 13-win club. To put things in their proper perspective, Kansas City (the one team the Tigers are ahead of in the AL Central) has a 15-28 WL record. But they've only been outscored by 19 runs. The team right ahead of the Tigers (the White Sox) has a YTD run differential of -31 and that's w/ just a one game gap in the standings. Detroit has been blown out numerous times this season, many of them coming recently during a 2-6 slide. They've been outscored 57-19 during that time.

The Tigers were just swept here at home by Houston to start the week. Similarly, Thursday's opponent (Oakland) also comes in on a three-game skid. But the A's got yday off after dropping two in Seattle. Another edge Oakland has coming into this game is they have absolutely owned the Tigers, going 12-1 against them the previous two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 in 2018. Starter Chris Bassitt is deserving of far better than a 1-3 TSR as he's allowed only seven runs in 24 2/3 IP. He's got a 0.973 WHIP. Detroit goes w/ Spencer Turnbull, who has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts, but his ERA and WHIP are both higher than Bassitt's. 8* Oakland 

8* NY Mets (1:05 ET): Few, if any, teams have disappointed me more this season than have the Nationals. They are a team I had earmarked for some serious improvement this year, despite the loss of Bryce Harper. But injuries have definitely taken their toll so far as the Nats are eight games under .500 despite beating the Mets 5-1 yday. This would be the rubber match between the NL East rivals as the Mets took the opener on Tuesday by score of 6-2. The oddsmakers have definitely taken a position on this game as have the sharp bettors and I'm w/ them. Take the Mets. 

It would certainly appear to be a rather large pitching mismatch (in favor of NY) here today. The Mets send Zack Wheeler to the bump for this series finale. While Wheeler's career numbers against Washington aren't great, his recent overall numbers are pretty impressive. Five of Wheeler's last six starts have been of the quality variety w/ the last two each seeing him go 7 innings while allowing just 2 ER. He also has 21 strikeouts in those two starts. Three times in the last four starts, he's struck out 10+ batters. It also helps that he'll be facing a lineup that is batting a collective .175 over the past 7 games. Another positive is that the Mets are 29-14 their L43 times off a loss. 

Injuries haven't been the only concern for Washington thus far. The backend of the starting rotation has been a disaster as Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez have a combined 5-10 team start record. Sanchez goes today and he's 0-6 (2-6 TSR) having logged just 41 IP in his eight starts to go along w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP. Sanchez is seeking to avoid being the 2nd Nationals starter in team history (doesn't include the Expos) to start a year 0-7. He allowed 2 HRs in his last start and the Nats have lost his L5 turns overall. The Nats are also 0-6 the L6 times they've been off a game where they scored 5+ runs. 8* NY Mets

8* Over Brewers/Phillies (1:05 ET): We'll certainly be looking to "buck" the trends on this play as Milwaukee starter Zach Davies has seen the Under come in for all eight of his starts this season. That's no coincidence either seeing as Davies has a 1.54 ERA in those eight starts, although his WHIP (1.221) is a little bit higher than you might expect. (He's had a couple of starts w/ more walks than strikeouts). Speaking of trends, the two previous games in this series have stayed Under w/ the Brew Crew winning 5-2 and 6-1. But don't be surprised if the Phillies' bats wake up Thursday afternoon. Take the Over. 

The Phillies are now 6-1 Under the L7 games. All six Unders have been games w/ seven or less total runs scored. The exception was the opener of this four-game series, which Philly won 7-4. They've managed only three runs in two games since and yday saw them held to one run over the final eight innings. While none of this information lends itself to an Over play, note Davies has a 7.15 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Phils. Both his ERA and WHIP do go (noticeably) up when he pitches on the road. The Over is 9-1-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 finales of a four-game series. 

Philadelphia will be sending out its own strong starter named "Zach." That being Zach Eflin, who has two complete games in his last three starts and a 0.72 ERA/0.68 WHIP during that time. All three starts have stayed Under and the Under is also 3-0 in Eflin home starts. So again, we're "defying convention" here. Eflin faces a Brew Crew team that is 5-1 Under its last six games. Life just has a funny way of working itself out sometimes and Eflin is not immune to a poor starts. Back on April 13th, he gave up six runs to a Miami team that is dead last in MLB in scoring. 8* Over Brewers/Phillies  

10* Under Rangers/Royals (8:15 ET): Yesterday just seemed like a rare spot where KC was likely to come through, and they did, beating Texas by a score of 11-5. The Royals have actually played better than their record, which is second worst in the entire American League. But consider despite being 15-27 on the year, the Royals have only been outscored by 14 runs. For the sake of comparison, Baltimore is 14-27, but has been outscored by more than FIVE times that amount. However, I will say that it's going to be tougher to win today w/ Jorge Lopez on the hill. 

The biggest problem for the Rangers right now is that they are giving up way too many runs. In just the last three games, they've allowed 37! Seven of their last nine games have gone Over and they've lost five in a row as they were swept over the weekend in Houston. But look for Wednesday starter Mike Minor to mitigate the damage. Minor has been the top starter in the Texas rotation, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in eight starts. He's gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts while allowing more than 2 ER just twice during that span. Three times, he hasn't allowed any runs. The Under is 4-1 the L5 times he's taken the mound.

Texas is a poor road team (5-15 WL record) and may have to go w/o SS Elvis Andrus tonight. That'll make it even harder to score runs, a nice break for the struggling Lopez. But while Lopez has struggled, four of his last five starts have been on the road. It's not like he is incapable of pitching well. He had a quality start back on April 11th against a Seattle team that was hitting the cover off the ball at the time. Also, last September, he took a perfect game all the way into the ninth inning. Something to note here is that the Under is 20-5-2 the L27 times these teams have met here at Kauffman Stadium. 10* Under Rangers/Royals

8* Over Cardinals/Braves (7:20 ET): The ESPN cameras head to SunTrust Park in Atlanta for Wednesday Night Baseball where the home team will look to fare better than they did last night when they took a 14-3 loss courtesy of St. Louis. The Cardinals hit 4 HR's, which accounted for most of the runs scored, and were up 11-0 before the Braves did any damage offensively. Now the Redbirds were facing a struggling starter last night in Mike Foltynewicz. Tonight they go against Mike Soroka, who has allowed just 4 ER in 5 starts this season. But you have to figure Atlanta is going to do more at the plate tonight as well. Take the Over. 

Soroka hasn't given up any home runs yet, so St. Louis may need to find another method of scoring here. Perhaps easier said than done against Soroka, though he has clearly benefited from facing some of the weaker offensive teams in the National League so far. Plus, St. Louis is now 6-1 all-time in this park and 9-1 its L10 visits to Atlanta overall. The last six times these teams have played, the game has gone Over, as have 9 of the last 10 meetings. In just its last four games here in Atlanta, the Cardinals have scored a total of 36 runs. They are averaging a healthy 5.2 per game this season. 

You have figure the Braves will fare better at the plate tonight than they did yday when they managed only three hits. They'll also be facing a starter in Michael Wacha who has a very misleading 3-0 WL record. Wacha has a 5.35 ERA And 1.648 WHIP in seven starts and has struggled recently by giving up nine runs in his last 10 2/3 IP. Wacha has never beaten Atlanta in five career tries (4.12 ERA). The Over is 32-15-4 in his L51 road starts. Last time he started, the Cardinals scored 17 runs as the Over is now 5-1-1 in all starts this season. Five of the Cards' last nine games have seen the winning side score 10+ runs. 8* Over Cardinals/Braves 

10* Under Rays/Marlins (7:10 ET): Tampa Bay has shot to the top of the AL East standings on the basis of their tremendous pitching. The Rays have - by far - allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball to this point. In 39 games, they've allowed the opponent to score only 123 times. That's 30 fewer runs allowed than every other American League team. The weekend brought some bad news - not just w/ the Tyler Glasnow injury (out 4-6 weeks), but the team also dropped two of three at home to the Yankees. Thus a trip to face lowly Miami will be quite welcome at this point of the schedule. 

The Marlins are atrocious. I have them rated as the worst team in the entire sport and don't figure there will be much argument with that. They have a 10-29 record and have been outscored by 91 runs thus far. Both the record and run differential are MLB worsts. Considering the Rays' pitching prowess, this looks to be a particularly bad matchup for Miami, who happens to rank dead last in the league in runs scored. They've scored just 105 runs in 39 games. To put that in perspective, the team w/ the next lowest number of runs scored in the NL is Pittsburgh w/ 141 and they've played one less game. So far, the Marlins are averaging just 2.3 runs per game in May and half of the everyday lineup has accounted for just ONE extra base hit! 

On the bright side, Tampa Bay will be w/o the DH in this series, thus affecting their own offense. Miami has its best starting pitcher going Tuesday, that being Caleb Smith, who is top five in the NL in both ERA (2.11) and K's per nine innings (11.8). He has yet to lose a decision in seven starts. Tampa Bay comes in having been held to three runs or fewer in 6 of its last 10 games. So Smith should pitch well here today. So should Rays' starter Charlie Morton. Not only is Morton facing the worst offense in the game (feel free to re-read the numbers above), but he also comes in w/ a 1.61 ERA in four road starts (4-0 TSR). Morton has allowed more than 2 ER in only one of his eight starts this year. 10* Under Rays/Marlins 

8* Over Cubs/Reds (6:40 ET): I think Cincinnati is a lot better than its record. While the Reds are 18-23 and currently in last place in the NL Central, they have a +30 run differential, which is certainly indicative of a team that should have a winning record. Only three teams in the entire Senior Circuit have better run differentials and those three happen to be the division leaders! Unfortunately though (perhaps?) for the Reds, they'll be taking on one of those division leaders for the next three games, that being the first place team in their own division, the Cubs. 

Now it should be pointed out that the Reds have put together a few "big" games this year, which is why they have such a positive run differential in spite of the losing record. There have been two wins by a total of 25 runs. Take those away and you're still looking at what should be closer to a .500 team. The Reds were very close to sweeping the Giants over the weekend, but lost the final game (Sunday), 5-4. The good news for this series is they are back at home where they average a healthy 5.4 runs per game. That's a drastic improvement from the 3.5 rpg they average on the road. The Cubs come into this series riding a 5-game Under streak, but all those games were played at Wrigley. Looking at only home games, the Cubs staff is #1 in all of baseball right now in terms of ERA, runs allowed and opponents batting average. Curiously, their offense also improves rather dramatically on the road, jumping up to 6.7 rpg. 

One player on the Cubs' roster that really feels the home vs. road split is today's starter Kyle Hendricks. His last two starts have seen him allow just one (unearned) run in 17 IP. But both were at home and the last one was against light-hitting Miami. On the road, Hendricks is 0-3 and has an 8.78 ERA/2.476 WHIP. For the Reds, Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of 2019 as he tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball in Oakland. I would expect him to regress some. This game taking place at Great American Ballpark is huge for the total, given how the Cubs offense performs on the road, how the Reds offense performs at home (relative to the road) and Hendricks' home vs. road splits. 8* Over Cubs/Reds

10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians are above .500, but have a negative run differential after some inconsistent play of late. They dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, but both losses came in the final at-bat. A sweep was avoided Sunday w/ a 5-3 win. The series before that saw the Tribe split four games w/ these very same White Sox. They dropped the first two games before coming back to even things up, including an abbreviated series finale (game called after five innings). This time, I see Cleveland starting the series w/ a win behind Shane Bieber, who was successful against Chicago in his previous outing. 

Bieber last started for the Indians when they were off B2B losses to the White Sox. He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just three runs, allowing his team to get the 5-3 win. It was Bieber's sixth quality start in seven tries overall (lone exception was vs. an NL team). and he is unbeaten on the road this year (1.89 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). He has walked two or fewer batters in five of his seven starts. Also note that Bieber threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball the last time he pitched here on the Southside of Chicago, back in September. This is a very good starter. 

The White Sox will go w/ Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled. He started opposite Bieber last Wednesday as well and while he didn't pitch poorly, only two strikeouts in six innings isn't a great sign. Lopez has already had three starts this year where he failed to get past the fifth inning while allowing 6+ runs. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.748 WHIP in his eight starts overall and the White Sox are giving up a ton of runs at home this year. They allow 6.8 per game to be exact, which is third most in all of baseball. Only Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (hideous) have allowed more. Cleveland's offense gets on track here. 10* Cleveland

8* Houston (7:10 ET): At first glance, my thought was the Tigers might be able to keep this a low-scoring affair due to Matt Boyd being on the hill. That may still be the case. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP after eight starts. But the bottom line is that Detroit also simply lacks the firepower to stay competitive w/ the mighty Astros. The Tigers come in averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is dead last among American League teams. The surging Astros, winners of 8 of their last 9, are now #3 in all of MLB in runs scored and are 1st overall in OPS. They've scored 10 or more runs in four of those last eight wins, including 26 total (15 yday) the L2 days.

Now there is a good chance the Houston lineup is somewhat slowed down today by Boyd, who has delivered seven straight quality outings. Last time out, here at home, Boyd tossed six innings of three-hit ball and allowed just one run. But he's yet to face a lineup as potent as what the Astros send to the plate. In three career starts vs. Houston, Boyd has an ERA of 5.71. Plus, the Tigers have a bad bullpen whose numbers are actually worse at home than on the road. The Tigers are giving up 5.2 rpg here at Comerica Park. This is a team that now ranks second-to-last (Baltimore) in run differential in the American League.

Detroit did manage to take 2 of 3 from 1st place Minnesota Saturday & Sunday (Saturday was a doubleheader). But they've still scored more than five runs in a game just one time since April 26th. Houston put 15 on the board yday alone, even w/ Jose Altuve out of the lineup. Leadoff man George Springer is on fire right now, including a 5 for 5 day at the plate yday. Monday's starter Brad Peacock tossed seven shutout innings his last time out (w/ 12 Ks) and he has a 2.38 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. The Astros took five of six from the Tigers LY and this should be another successful series for them, starting today. 8* Houston

10* Under Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): It may seem a bit odd to go w/ the Under on an Orioles game. After all, they've given up - by far - the highest number of runs in all of baseball. However, today is the rare time that they'll send a competent starter to the hill. That would be John Means, who easily has the best overall numbers in the Baltimore rotation. Means has pitched five times thus far and has a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. No other rotation regular has an ERA lower than 4.25 or a WHIP lower than 1.30. So you could say we've got the "means" for a Baltimore Under here.

It's not like the Baltimore bats have done much recently either. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of the last seven games, including both so far in this series. They lost 8-3 on Friday and then 7-2 Saturday. Their only runs yesterday came in the first inning. At least they had more hits (9) than nearly the previous two days combined (10). But they figure to struggle again today facing Griffin Canning, an Angels rookie that's looked good in two previous turns. Canning earned his first big league victory his last time out, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing just two runs on four hits. He has 13 strikeouts in his two starts and the first saw him give up only three runs.

Means is also a rookie. He's allowed exactly one run in four of his five starts. The lone exception came when he faced the White Sox for a second straight time. But Means is off his best performance yet as he held Boston to one run on three hits, across seven innings, and the Orioles actually got the win, 4-1. The last four times Means has taken the mound, the Under has hit. Baltimore has yet to score more than four runs in any of his starts. They don't project to here as Angels' pitching has allowed three runs or less in four of the last five games. The Under is 34-16-3 the L53 times LA has faced a southpaw starter, including 10-3 L13 on the road. 10* Under Angels/Orioles

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): The Blue Jays got a much neeeded win Friday, beating the White Sox 4-3. That snapped a five-game losing streak, although this offense still has some issues it needs to figure out. They'd been held to just one run total in three games by Minnesota and have scored just 18 runs in May (9 games). But off the win yday, they've got a great shot at having a big game at the plate Saturday as they'll face Ivan Nova, who has been struggling badly of late and all season. Nova has a 7.04 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in seven starts, including a 8.10 ERA and 2.040 WHIP his L3. 

The White Sox have given up the third most runs in the American League w/ only horrendous Baltimore and slumping Seattle having given up more. But Seattle has also played four more games. The 5.6 rpg allowed by Chicago is second most in all of MLB (Baltimore). That Toronto only needed four runs to win yday is a good sign. I look for Marcus Stroman to pitch well today for the Jays as his 2-6 TSR is very misleading as it comes in spite of a 2.96 ERA on the year. He has a 2.22 ERA at home. He'll be facing a White Sox lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its last eight games. 

I already ran through the ugly numbers for Nova, which were actually even worse before he turned in a shockingly good outing vs. Cleveland on Monday. He allowed just one run (scattering eight hits) in 7 IP. That was actually the third time this season Nova allowed only one run in a start. But the previous two follow-ups have not been good. They've seen him allow 13 runs in a total of just 8 2/3 innings. Take away two starts vs. Cleveland and Nova's numbers look real dire. The White Sox are just 5-15 in day games as well. 8* Toronto 

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Time for a little redemption for the Cubbies, who got embarrassed in a 7-0 loss to Milwaukee on Friday afternoon. It was just their 6th loss at Wrigley all season and came on the heels of an easy sweep over the lowly Marlins. Not just that; the Cubs had won 10 of 11 going into yday. So perhaps they were due for an "off-game," but it should be pointed out that it was a 1-0 game heading into the 7th yday, which is when Milwaukee began to exploit the Cubs' bullpen. The Brew Crew have now won 7 straight themselves, so this is a matchup of hot teams, but I'm siding with the home team today. 

Yesterday's result pulled the Brewers into a first place tie w/ the Cubs atop the NL Central. The Cubs are still percentage points up as they've actually played four fewer games. But despite the "tie," I don't think there's any denying as to which team has played "better" thus far. The Cubs have a +50 run differential on the year, tied for tops in the Senior Circuiit, while Milwaukee is only +9. To put the Brewers' run differential into perspective, it's just the fourth best in their own division w/ both St. Louis and Cincinnati (who is only 17-22!) better. No team has been any stingier on the runs allowed side of the ledger than the Cubs, who going into yday were allowing just 2.8 rpg and a .213 opponents batting average here at Wrigley. Both numbers are MLB bests. 

We've got two undefeated pitchers on the mound Saturday, so something will have to give. Cole Hamels is 3-0 in his seven starts for the Cubs w/ a 3.38 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. For Milwaukee, Zach Davies is 4-0 in his seven starts w/ a 1.56 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. While there looks to be no obvious discernible advantage in this matchup, Davies does have a 2-8 TSR his L10 vs. teams with a winning record. Coming off a bad loss is a good time to play these Cubs, who are 7-1 off their previous eight defeats. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): I'm playing the 1st game of this day-night doubleheader. The Twins, yes the Twins, have the best record in all of MLB at 24-12. They have won four straight, including a 6-0 shutout of the Tigers last night. This club very much looks "for real" as they've outscored their opponents by 50 runs this season, right on par w/ the other division leaders in the A.L. (Rays, Astros). They should have little difficulty continuing to win in this series against the hapless Tigers, who are 2nd worst in the American League w/ a -48 run differential due to an offense that not only did next to nothing yday, but is last in the league in runs scored. Detroit has been outscored 19-0 in its last two games. 

Minnesota is near the top of the A.L. in runs scored, but what's also surprising is they've given up the second fewest runs (only to Tampa Bay). Friday saw Jake Odorizzi extend his scoreless innings streak to 20 by going seven innings and giving up just one hit. For Game 1 today, it's Michael Pineda, who has definitely been the "weak link" (6.09 ERA, 1.529 WHIP) of the starting rotation thus far. But a matchup w/ a Tigers lineup that has been shutout an AL-high five times, including B2B games, is an ideal matchup. The Twins staff - get this - has pitched three shutouts in the last four games and allowed just one run in the previous series (swept Toronto).

The Twins' offense is also doing its job as they are 4th in MLB in HR's and well on their way to breaking the franchise record in that department. In Game 1, they'll face Spencer Turnbull, who has been a real nice surprise for the Detroit starting rotation. The Tigers are 3-0 in Turnbull's last three starts w/ him allowing just 2 ER in 18 IP. But, if I were him, I'd be worried about getting any support today. Detroit is averaging only 3.2 rpg on the road this season while visitors here at Target Field are averaging just 3.1 rpg. It won't take much to beat the Tigers here and the Twins are already 12-4 in day games. 8* Minnesota 

10* Cincinnati (10:15 ET): Last weekend saw these teams play four games in Cincinnati (series actually ended Monday). They split, each team winning twice, but it very easily could have been a sweep by the Reds. In their two losses, they blew big leads and saw the eventual game-winning runs scored in the final inning. One of them, they blew an eight-run advantage and lost 12-11 in 11 innings. The other, they blew a four-run 1st inning lead. The two victories, however, saw the Reds outscore the Giants 21-6. This weekend is a chance at redemption and I love Cincy in this spot. 

The Giants very nearly did it again yday as they erased a 7-0 deficit against the Rockies (on the road) and actually took the lead (8-7) going into the bottom half of the sixth. But it was not to be as this time they came out on the wrong end of a 12-11 decision. That was the fifth time the Giants have allowed 10 or more runs in the L10 games. I don't like tonight's starter very much either as Dereck Rodriguez has been pretty awful of late w/ a 9.22 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. The last one was against Cincinnati and he gave up 4 HR's and eight runs total in a 9-2 loss. 

The Reds look to have a sizable edge in starting pitching tonight as Luis Castillo goes for them. Castillo has a 1.97 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in his eight starts this season. His last one, which was against the Giants, was the first time all year he allowed more than 2 ER. I expect him to be better the second time around. Cincinnati won in shutout fashion yday in Oakland (3-0) and this is a much better team than the overall record (16-22) indicates as they've actually outscored opponents by 23 runs over the course of the season, the 5th best differential in the National League. The Giants have a -29 run differential despite having one less loss than the Reds! (Same number of wins). The Reds are the much better team here. 10* Cincinnati

8* Over Braves/D'backs (9:40 ET): Last night's series opener was a low-scoring affair w/ Arizona prevailing 3-2. The game went 10 innings w/ the home team walking off on a Ketel Marte single. Quite honestly, the D'backs were pretty fortunate to even be in that position as they'd tied the game w/ a two-out HR in the bottom of the ninth. As low scoring as Thursday's game was, I expect plenty of fireworks tonight at Chase Field. Arizona does have Zack Greinke on the mound while Atlanta goes w/ Julio Teheran, but this total is too low. Take the Over. 

After a rough initial outing, Greinke has really turned things around. He is 3-0 w/ a 1.35 ERA in his last four starts and has allowed 3 ER or fewer his last seven times out. He gave up three runs (in six innings) to Colorado last weekend, but the team still ended up losing that game 8-7. That snapped a three-game Under run in Greinke starts, but note that the first four of 2019 all went Over thanks to the bullpen giving up additional runs. The Over is 5-1 in Greinke's last six home starts. It's also 6-2 the last eight times he's started w/ exactly four days rest. 

Speaking of bullpen, Arizona has had its way w/ Atlanta's so far this year in taking all four head to head matchups. It was a 3-0 sweep out in Atlanta last month as that series saw the D'backs score 11 runs against Braves relievers in just 10 innings. They also pounded out 14 hits. Starting tonight for Atlanta will be Julio Teheran, who leads the staff w/ 20 walks. Teheran hasn't pitched all that well this season and has a 5.74 ERA and 1.387 WHIP on the road. Keep in mind that includes him throwing six shutout innings at Miami (worst team in baseball) his last time out. So the numbers away from home were obviously much worse before then. The Over is 4-0 the L4 times Atlanta has been off a game where it scored two runs or less. 8* Over Braves/D'backs

7* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies blew all of a seven-run lead Thursday afternoon, but still found a way to come back and beat the Giants 12-11. In my opinion, that sets them up well for tonight's opener w/ the Padres. Granted, giving up 25 runs in two games to the Giants wasn't a good sign. But the offense has also turned it around, scoring at least eight runs in five of the last seven games. They'll have German Marquez on the hill tonight and they are 6-2 in his starts so far. Colorado is 2-0 against San Diego in 2019, having easily taken a pair of games at Petco Park last month. 

Though like most pitchers he's struggled here at Coors Field, Marquez still has solid numbers in his eight starts this season. I already mentioned that six of them have resulted in Rockies' victories. Neither of the last two have been great, but I had him his last time out and that was an 8-7 win over Arizona where Marquez matched a season-high w/ nine strikeouts. Remember that last season saw Marquez set a team record w/ 230 K's. He has a 1.077 WHIP and has been durable, going 6+ innings in all but two starts. In two career home starts vs. San Diego, he's allowed a total of just three runs. 

Surprising is that the Rockies have a losing record at home so far (7-10). Equally as surprising is the Padres' winning road record (11-6). But I expect neither to last. The Padres just took two of three from the Mets, at home, but this series promises to be a lot more challenging. Starter Eric Lauer has been somewhat inconsistent and has only made it through a full six innings twice (never gone more than 6 IP in any start). Lauer's only previous start here at Coors Field was his big league debut (April of last year) and it didn't go well as he allowed seven runs in just three innings. With a 5.40 road ERA, he's up against it here against the surging Rockies lineup. 7* Colorado

6* Boston (7:05 ET): I certainly don't need much "pushing" to fade a Seattle team that I believe will continue to regress severely over the final three-quarters of the season. But the oddsmakers are all but telling you that this is an ideal spot to fade. The Mariners have won just seven times in their last 25 games as the regression I expected has already begun to take hold. Simply put, this team was a complete fraud last year in winning 89 games. They were actually outscored by 34 runs, a scoring differential more indicative of a 77-win team. No team overperformed more (in terms of run differential) last season. So you can imagine my shock when they began 2019 at 13-2. 

The key for Seattle these last two years has been a ridiculously fortunate 17-1 record in games decided in extra innings. But that can only help them so much and over time that record will regress back to .500. The Mariners' offense started the year like gangbusters, but like the team has begun to fade. They scored only one run in yday's loss to the Yankees, which was the 6th time in the last 14 games they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. Another disadvantage they face coming into this game is that they had to play yesterday. Boston had Thursday off as they visited the White House (to celebrate LY's World Series win).

The Red Sox are starting to look like the Red Sox again w/ wins in 13 of the last 19 games. They are back at .500 and poised to make it a three-team race (w/ the Rays & Yankees) in the AL East. I know Eduardo Rodriguez's overall numbers are not that impressive, but Friday's starter for Boston has pitched very well this season at Fenway Park where he has a 3-0 TSR and 0.98 WHIP. Seattle is just 3-7 this season vs. left-handed starters. They'll go w/ righty Erik Swanson tonight. Swanson has had two good starts (both vs. Cleveland), but the other two have not gone well. This series is going to go a lot differently than when the Red Sox dropped three of four to open the year in Seattle. The price is high, but I love the home team here. 6* Boston

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I played the Over in last night's Dodgers game and (as projected) they went Over the number themselves by hanging nine runs on the board for a second consecutive game. In the analysis, I spoke of just how dominant Dodger Blue has been here at Chavez Ravine this season. They are outscoring their visitors by nearly a 2:1 margin, averaging 6.3 rpg themselves while allowing only 3.6. Last night's 9-4 win over the Braves made it three straight sweeps here at home for the Dodgers and 10 straight home victories overall. The last time they lost a home game was April 14th! Add another win to the pile tonight.

As impressed as I am w/ the Dodgers so far this season, I'm equally as disappointed w/ the Nationals. They've lost four in a row overall and just got swept in Milwaukee. Maybe they are going to miss Bryce Harper after all as they've been held to three runs or fewer in 9 of the last 10 games. They've scored only seven runs total during the four-game losing streak. The Nats are now eight games under .500 overall and are dead last in baseball in net units at -14.3.

The Dodgers also look to have a significant edge on the mound tonight as Rich Hill goes against Pat Corbin. The Dodgers have won both Hill starts, even though he's allowed 2 HR's in both. Still he has a better ERA and WHIP than Corbin, who has struggled some recently. Injuries have really decimated this Nationals lineup, resulting in them losing six consecutive series. This one doesn't figure to go any better for them. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Braves/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers went Over the total all by themselves last night, beating the Braves 9-0. Perhaps it will have to be more of the same this evening with Clayton Kershaw pitching. The Dodgers certainly have the offense to do so, as they showed last night, and they now average a healthy 6.3 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. That's the highest average in the entire National League. They really are dominating here at home, outscoring opponents by almost three full runs per game. But, for what it's worth, Atlanta is also averaging 5.1 rpg on the road. Take the Over.

Kershaw has allowed at least one HR in three of his four starts this season. He gave up two his last time out, but only three runs total as the Dodgers beat the Padres 4-3. But the number of home runs allowed is something worth monitoring. The Braves did homer here twice on Monday and had hit six in their four games previous to being shutout yday. Last night was their first time being shutout all year and while they've managed only nine hits total in the two games in this series, I do expect them to find some offense tonight. 

The Braves are likely to give up their fair share of runs here as well. In addition to scoring 5.1 rpg on the road this season, they are giving up that same number. So is it any wonder that the Over is now 10-5-1 when they take the field away from home. Mike Foltynewicz will make his third start after his season debut was delayed due to injury. The team has lost both times he's taken the mound so far and Foltynewicz has allowed 10 runs in 10 2/3 IP. Last time out, he gave up six. Four were unearned, but the Braves still lost 11-2 to the Padres. Given what the home team has been able to do offensively here at Dodgers Stadium, expect a somewhat similar score tonight. 10* Over Braves/Dodgers 

8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The Cardinals took a beating yday at the hands of the Phillies, losing 11-1. But this is a good spot for them to bounce back after that humiliation. Granted, things haven't been going too well for the Redbirds recently as they've dropped five of six and were swept over the weekend by the rival Cubs. But they also shut the Phillies out here on Monday, winning 6-0. The club remains 13-5 here at Busch Stadium and today's starter (Jack Flaherty) has been exceptional in his four home starts. I'm going w/ the home team to bounce back in a major way today!

Not that the Cardinals did much at the plate, but it was really one big inning from the Phillies that did them in last night. It was a six-run second inning, which St. Louis manager Mike Shildt called his team's "worst inning of the season." It included a grand slam from Bryce Harper, who is still only hitting .226. Don't expect anything like that to happen today against Flaherty, who is 3-0 in home starts w/ a 1.87 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. The Phillies will always hold a special place in Flaherty's heart as he beat them LY for his very 1st big league victory. He had 13 strikeouts in a 5-1 win. 

Homefield advantage can often be overrated, but not when these teams are involved. They sport the two largest gaps between home and road win percentages in all of baseball (w/ St. Louis 1st). Last night marked just the third win for the Phillies in their last nine tries here at Busch Stadium. Wednesday's starter Jerad Eickhoff has pitched only one time on the road in 2019 and it didn't go well w/ him allowing four runs in six innings. Granted, that was at Coors Field in Colorado, but Eickhoff didn't fare much better in his only career start here at Busch. The Phils are just 8-11 off a win this season. 8* St. Louis

10* NY Mets (10:10 ET): I had the Under in last night's game, which was an easy call w/ a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Paddack. Both starters delivered, especially Paddack, who had a career high 11 K's over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. The Mets were shutout, losing 4-0, and it was the sixth straight game scoring three runs or fewer. In those six games, they have scored just seven runs total, which is absolutely putrid. But the good news is they shouldn't need to put many on the board tonight as they have Noah Syndergaard starting. I'll go w/ the Mets to bounce back here. 

It's not like San Diego has a tremendous offense either. As I pointed out in yday's analysis, they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game at home. They got a dominant start from their best pitcher on Monday, but I wouldn't go expecting the same from Cal Quantrill on Tuesday, even though he gets to face the same Mets lineup. Quantrill is making just his second start of the season here. His first was OK, but far from overwhelming and the Padres lost the game 5-1. The Padres still have a losing record at home (9-10) and they are just 6-13 the L3 seasons when coming off a win via shutout. 

Syndergaard should be the difference in this one as the Mets aim to snap a four-game losing streak. It's hard to be any better than Syndergaard was his last time out as he went the distance in a CG shutout w/ 10K's and the Mets beat the Reds 1-0. In an added twist, Syndergaard provided the game's only run w/ a solo home run! Syndegaard had been struggling prior to that outing, but got to face a weak-hitting lineup as is the case tonight. I can't see the Padres beating both deGrom and Syndergaard in B2B days as top hitter Fernando Tatis Jr is still out of the lineup. 10* NY Mets

10* Under Mets/Padres (10:10 ET): Could it actually be possible that Jacob deGrom is NOT the better starter here? San Diego's Chris Paddack has been as good as advertised, leading the Padres to a 5-1 record in his six starts. Along the way, Paddack has posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.697 WHIP. He has allowed 1 or 0 runs in four of those starts w/ three being the most allowed in any of the six. Opponents are hitting just .126 against him. Incredibly, Mother Nature could intervene here, something that does not happen often in San Diego where there have been just three rainouts in 15 years. But rain is in the forecast Monday. I'll cross my fingers that we get this one in because I absolutely love the Under here. 

For a second straight season, deGrom has again been snakebit. True to form, he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, but the Mets lost 1-0 to the Reds. In half of his six starts this season, deGrom has not allowed a single earned run. Now the other three haven't gone particularly well. But provided we get the game in, this one should go well. In six career starts vs. the Padres, deGrom has dominated w/ a 1.66 ERA. 

The Mets' offense hasn't only been putrid for deGrom. They've scored a total of just seven runs in the last five games. They come into this series riding a six-game Under streak. San Diego's offense is rarely good and they are averaging just 3.3 rpg at home this season. Their lineup won't include rookie slugger Fernando Tatis Jr tonight as he's still on the 10-day DL. The Mets have scored three runs or less in four of deGrom's six starts, including each of the last three. 10* Under Mets/Padres

6* Houston (4:10 ET): As the money line suggests, this should be another easy win for the Astros, who beat the Angels yday by a score of 14-2. The reason for this only being a two-game series is that it is taking place down in Mexico. At least the Angels didn't draw Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but they do have to face the former on Sunday. Verlander, not surprisingly, has very good number as his ERA is 2.45 and his WHIP is 0.864 in six starts. Lately, he's been even better than usual as he's given up exactly one run in four consecutive outings. 

I have Houston finishing at the top of the American League this year and they're well on their way to doing that. They enter Sunday sporting a 19-14 record and +40 run differential. Only the Rays and Cubs (NL) have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Now the offense has largely been "feast or famine" the the L5 games w/ 25 runs scored in the two wins and just four scored in the three losses. The Astros got shutout in Verlander's last start, a hard luck 1-0 decision to the Twins. But I see them as more likely to "feast" today facing Matt Harvey. 

The Angels came into this series off a three-game sweep of Toronto, but they are just 4-10 outside of LA this season and getting this series down in Mexico does them no favors at all. Over the L3 seasons, the team has gone 5-14 after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game. Away from home, the offense is averaging just 3.3 runs per game. They figure to struggle against Verlander, who they've fared poorly against in the past. Verlander has a 3.01 ERA w/ two shutouts in 25 career appearances vs. the Halos. Mike Trout is hitting just .139 against him. Harvey has been a bit better of late, but still has a 6.54 ERA in six starts. Houston wins big again in Monterrey. 6* Houston

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): Arizona continues to surprise as they've put 19 runs on the board in two games here at Coors Field and won both. Now 20-13 overall, the D'backs are one of four NL teams playing .600 ball w/ a YTD run differential of +30 or better. They go for the sweep of the Rockies Sunday afternoon and will have Zack Greinke on the bump, so the visitors are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now. But I wouldn't make the mistake of discounting Colorado in this spot, coming off a bad home loss. In fact, I think the moneyline speaks volumes here.

German Marquez will toe the rubber for the home team in this one. He's been a little shaky at Coors Field so far, but still has a 2.93 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in his seven starts this season. Those are actually better overall numbers than what Greinke brings to the table! Marquez also has a 5-2 TSR. Though the Rockies only managed two runs on five hits yday, I wouldn't make the mistake of second-guessing this lineup. The previous three games had seen them score 31 runs on 34 hits. They do need to do a better job of limiting their opponents' scoring here at home and I think Marquez will get the job done today.

Greinke started 2019 w/ a terrible effort against the Dodgers, but the team has won the last six times he's started. He's been especially dominant in the last four, all quality efforts, but this is Coors Field he's pitching at Sunday. Greinke only had to pitch once here LY and gave up multiple home runs. It's pretty common knowledge at this point that Greinke has always pitched better at home, no matter what jersey he's been wearing. The last three times he's pitched here in Denver, he's faced off w/ Marquez every time. Arizona has won 2 of the 3, but this time it's the Rockies' turn as they are going to be highly motivated here not to get swept by a division rival at home. 10* Colorado

10* Under Blue Jays/Rangers (8:05 ET): You can't get any lower scoring than Friday's series opener was here in Arlington. The Blue Jays won 1-0 and more impressive is that the game went 12 innings and the only run scored was unearned as it came on a throwing error. For the Rangers, it was the third time in five games, they held the opponent to just one run. But it was a far cry from the two times they did it to Seattle as they scored a combined 29 runs themselves in those games. There's a (very) good chance that this game won't be quite as low-scoring as last night, but I still have it going Under. 

Both starting pitchers were outstanding in last night's game. Toronto's Trent Thornton gave up only one hit in 7 IP. The Rangers' Mike Minor threw eight shutout innings while scattering seven hits. Really, the Blue Jays should have won by a lot more considering they had 11 hits to just four for Texas. But they were just 1 for 11 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. That shouldn't come as a total shock considering the Jays are only hitting .228 as a team for the year. But they've been helped by the fact they are only allowing 3.8 runs per game w/ opponents' batting just .214 (tied for 2nd best in MLB).

Rangers' games - on average - are far more high scoring than those for the Blue Jays. Tonight's starting pitching matchup looks like it would be more of a "Texas style game," but the bottom line is that Toronto has scored only nine runs total in its last four games. Rangers' starter Lance Lynn has allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his past five starts, including a gem his last time out where he held Seattle to one run in 7 IP (w/ 9 Ks). Toronto's Thomas Pannone has made only one previous start and while it was not good overall (allowed 4 runs in 2 2/3 IP), he did exit w/ six strikeouts. 10* Under Blue Jays/Rangers 

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians would appear to have the Mariners' number this year as they're now a perfect 4-0 against them following last night's walkoff win. Seattle is in a terrible way right now having scored just eight runs during a five-game losing skid and five of those eight runs came in one game. Of course, I had been adamant that the Mariners were headed for a downfall following what I dubbed "an unsustainable start" (to the season). That downfall continues Saturday as they are big underdogs to Carlos Carrasco and the Indians. 

Coming into the season, Seattle was a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression. Last year's 89-win team was a total fraud as they were actually outscored by 34 runs, giving them a win expectancy of 77. No team had a larger gap between actual and expected wins in 2018. The key for them was not only a MLB-high 36 one-run victories, but going a ridiculous 14-1 in extra-inning games. That's luck, not skill. So you can imagine my shock when the Mariners raced out to a 13-2 start and homered in their first 25 games (MLB record). But, sure enough, they have started to regress. They're just 5-14 in the L19 games and have suffered three losses by 11+ runs in the last five games! The other two losses, including last night's, were by 1 run. So they are regressing in that department as well. Home runs have slowed WAY down w/ just five in the last nine games. 

Carrasco has a somewhat misleading ERA/WHIP as he's been very good at home. He's also gotten little in the way of run support w/ the Tribe scoring exactly one run in each of his L4 trips to the mound. He's only had one strong start on the road and it happened to come against Seattle, whom he shutout for seven innings (just three hits) w/ 12 K's. At home, Carrasco has a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The M's counter w/ Mike Leake, who was on the wrong end of a 15-1 decision his last time out. He gave up nine runs (five earned) in five innings. Leake's L2 starts have seen him allow 13 runs (in 11 IP) and 5 HR's.  6* Cleveland

10* Under Twins/Yankees (7:10 ET): Right now, these are looking like two of the better teams in the American League. Minnesota has raced out to a 19-10 record and leads the Central by three games over reigning champ Cleveland. Despite injuries, the Yankees have been able to shake off some early season blues to go 17-13 and they actually have a better YTD run differential than the Twins (+34 vs. +29). Both have done a fairly decent job at limiting opponents' scoring and for tonight's series opener, we've got two starters in fine form. Take the Under here. 

Now Minnesota road games have been pretty high scoring to this point. They average 12.4 runs per game, which has them tied w/ Seattle for the highest average rpg on the road in all of baseball. But you have to figure that number is going to start to come down and facing the Yanks' James Paxton is probably a good place for that to start. Paxton has been downright filthy for NY this season, especially here at Yankee Stadium where he has a 0.46 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in three starts. In his last two outings here at home, he's pitched 14 scoreless innings w/ 24 Ks and just five hits allowed. Paxton has a 2.51 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins. 

The Yankees' lineup couldn't do much in two games at Arizona, scoring a total of just three runs. That came on the heels of six straight Overs. But as already alluded to, this lineup has been besieged by injuries to key players such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I'm not convinced that Luke Voit will be able to continue to carry the load. Twins' starter Kyle Gibson has a 0.818 WHIP his L3 starts, including seven strong innings his last time out where he allowed just one run on three hits. Granted, it was against lowly Baltimore, but the Yankees are only averaging 4.5 rpg at home this season. The Under is 4-1 the last five times Gibson has started w/ at least four days rest. 10* Under Twins/Yankees

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Toronto was definitely feeling pretty good about itself coming into this series as they'd just swept Oakland for a second time this season. But it's been a "step back" w/ consecutive losses to an Angels team that has won five out of its last six. This is the Halos' best stretch since a six-game win streak in early April that included a sweep of Milwaukee. Tonight, they go for just their second sweep of the season and I like their chances w/ Tyler Skaggs on the bump. Lay the price. 

Toronto has struggled this season at the plate. They are hitting just .219 in games against left-handed starters. Skaggs is a southpaw and brings in a 3.15 ERA after four previous starts. The only previous time Skaggs got to start at home was vs. Texas on 4.6. He allowed just one run and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. He was even stingier his last time out w/ five shutout innings of three-hit ball. Of course, when betting on or against the Angels, one must consider the prowess of perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout. So far, Trout has reached base safely in every game this season!

The Blue Jays hope they have the "next Trout" on their hands w/ Vlad Guerrero Jr. He's now been in the big leagues for almost a week and while there's no doubt he is a future superstar, Guerrero has struggled in this series. He's hitless in six at bats and has struck out three times. Pitching tonight for Toronto will be Aaron Sanchez, who continues to deal w/ recurring blister and figernail issues. This oddity has really stunted his growth as a starter as he often can not make his regular turn in the rotation. He was pulled early from his last start after breaking a fingernail. Another issues has been control. Sanchez has issued 15 walks in his L4 starts against only 16 K's. Trout and the rest of the Angels lineup will take advantage of that tonight. 8* LA Angels

8* Under Rockies/Brewers (1:10 ET): Colorado was able to break through w/ a win last night here in Milwaukee. They did so in emphatic fashion, prevailing by a score of 11-4. Beating the Brew Crew had been a real problem for the Rockies previously. They are just 3-10 vs. Milwaukee since the start of last year, most notably getting swept in LY's NLDS. (They were also 0-2 previously in this series). Scoring as many runs as they did yday on Milwaukee is even rarer. The Rocks scored just four runs the previous two games and had not topped five runs against the Brewers in their L11 tries! Remember, Dorothy, we're not in Coors Field anymore. Take the Under this afternoon. 

The Under has gone 9-3-1 those L13 meetings and is 13-5-2 the L20. As I just said, the first two games of this series (5-1 and 4-3 wins by Milwaukee) both stayed Under. Colorado is seeing its usual dip on the road offensively this season as they are hitting a collective .210. That's the 4th lowest team batting average on the road in all of baseball. In the first two games of the series, the Rockies had just eight hits. For yday, please note the Brewers had to make a late change w/ reliever Jacob Barnes starting in place of Chase Anderson, who was scratched due to a callus on his right middle finger. 

The Brew Crew may not be too confident in today's starter, Freddy Peralta, as his numbers this season are less than ideal. But was that because of injury? He's been on the DL since April 16th with a shoulder. Colorado may be the ideal opponent for Peralta to face right now as he's 2-0 w/ a 1.54 ERA against them. Earlier this year, Peralta did have an 11 strikeout game vs. the Reds where he gave up no runs (just two hits) in 8 IP. The Rockies go w/ Jon Gray here. Gray has been solid (as per usual) and won't have to deal w/ Christian Yelich, who is set to miss a 4th straight game due to a back injury. Before getting roughed up some in Atlanta last week, Gray had allowed 1 ER or less in three consecutive outings. 8* Under Rockies/Brewers

8* Over Astros/Twins (8:05 ET): This is the ESPN game for Wednesday night. I had Houston last night as they rolled to an easy 11-0 win behind Gerrit Cole, who allowed just one hit over seven innings. Meanwhile, Houston's offense gave Cole more than enough support, including three home runs. To have any chance at winning tonight's rubber match, the Twins must "up" the offense here as they've managed just 1 run in two games vs. Astros pitching. Fortunately for them, they won't have to deal with either Cole or Justin Verlander anymore. Take the Over in this one. 

Minnesota had won four straight going into yday. They were lucky to beat Houston 1-0 on Monday, thanks to a marvelous outing from Jake Odorizzi, who outdueled Verlander. But offense has been a problem in the series as the Twins have not only scored just the one run, but they've managed only six hits! But like I already said, they're done facing the top two pitchers in the Houston rotation. Tonight, they'll face Collin McHugh, who has a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts. Now, as was the case w/ Cole yday, McHugh's ERA is inflated by one terrible start in the Texas series. He gave up 10 runs in 3 1/3 innings in Arlington, but has been pretty good otherwise. Still, he's no Verlander or Cole. 

McHugh has pitched well in the past vs. Minnesota (2.86 ERA in 7 career appearances), but this Twins team still averages 5.2 rpg. McHugh did allow three solo home runs in his last start, the only runs he gave up, so he's not entirely "out of the woods" yet. Minnesota will counter here w/ Martin Perez, who has won B2B starts, but those were both against lowly Baltimore. Perez doesn't exactly have impressive strikeout numbers and this will easily be the strongest lineup he's faced so far this season. 8* Over Astros/Twins 

8* Over A's/Red Sox (1:05 ET): It's been a dramatic turnaround for Boston in this series as they've outscored Oakland 14-5 over the last two days. Now they go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon and they have to like their chances facing a struggling Michael Fiers, who has an 8.22 ERA his L3 starts for the Athletics. Now Fiers started the season well, including a six shutout innings effort against these Red Sox back on April 2nd. He also pitched well his last time out, giving up just two runs in 7 IP vs. Toronto. But in between those two outings, Fiers allowed 6 ER in three consecutive appearances. I don't think he'll have the same amount of success in Fenway Park as he did at home vs. Boston. 

The Red Sox will send Hector Velazquez to the mound for this matinee. Velazquez has actually already pitched in this series, having worked in relief on Monday. It didn't go particularly well as he walked two batters and gave up a hit while recording just one out. Velazquez doesn't have particularly great career numbers vs. Oakland (5.91 ERA in four career appearances) and he's only getting the starting nod in this spot due to an injury to Nathan Eovaldi. In two previous starts at Fenway this season, Velazquez has a 5.69 ERA and 1.738 WHIP. Boston lost both games. 

Though the rotation has been better of late, especially in this series, the Red Sox have still given up the third most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore and Miami, i.e. the two worst teams, have allowed more. On the bright side, the offense is starting to come around as they now average about 5.0 rpg at home. Oakland's road games have been especially high scoring this year w/ them averaging 5.5 and giving up 6.2 rpg (going into yday's game). The Over is 6-0 the L6 times Fiers has started off a team loss. 8* Over A's/Red Sox

analysis soon

8* Over Pirates/Rangers (8:05 ET): What do the Bucs have to do to score some runs? Well, adding the designated hitter to the lineup for the next two games should (theoretically) help as should a couple games against the Rangers' pitching staff. Unlike Pittsburgh, Texas has been a clear Over team of late. Five of their last eight games have ended up w/ the winning team scoring at least 11 runs. That includes them putting a combined 29 on the board at the Mariners' expense on Saturday & Sunday. Those games were on the road, but Arlington has seen its fair share of high scoring games. This will be another. Take the Over. 

Now while they were busy scoring 29 runs those L2 games, the Rangers only gave up two. Those back to back bludgeonings were something the Mariners had coming in what had been an unsustainable start to the season (I'm not a buyer on them at all). Texas may not score as many tonight, but they certainly figure to give up their "fair share" given who is on the mound. In two starts, Adrian Sampson has been dreadful, giving up nine runs in 8 1/3 innings. Both were at home. Now seven of them came in his first start, but allowing 18 baserunners across the two starts and three home runs is not a good sign at all.

The Pirates have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball so far w/ only Miami having crossed the plate less. So you may be shocked to see such a high total here. But don't be. I've already run through the "Texas quotient" and made mention of the fact the Pirates offense should benefit here from the pitcher not having to come up to bat. Two previous games in an AL park saw the Bucs score a total of eight runs, which isn't great, but they were also facing a good Tigers' pitching staff. The Rangers have a weak starter and a bad bullpen. Jordan Lyles has pitched well for the Bucs in his four starts, but may be "up against it" here, pitching against a team that he has a 8.15 ERA against in nine career appearances. Last time out, Lyles allowed five runs. Rangers' home games so far are averaging 12.4 rpg. The Pirates may get CF Sterling Marte back in the lineup as well today. 8* Over Pirates/Rangers

8* Houston (7:40 ET): Coming off the Sunday night game, the Astros got blanked Monday in Minnesota, losing 1-0. That was definitely surprising, but it was a game that certainly could have gone either way. Houston had more hits (5 to 3), but ultimately things were decided w/ one swing of the bat, that being Ehire Adrianza's third inning home run. Justin Verlander may have been outdueled by Jake Odorizzi, but the same won't happen here w/ Gerrit Cole, who will be opposed by the struggling Michael Pineda. Look for the road team to get back into the win column here.

Looking at the overall numbers from his six starts, you might think that Cole has not been his usual dominant self this season. He's posted a 4.71 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. But that's misleading. He had one terrible outing, at Texas on 4/20, where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned). Other than that, he's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer every time out. Last Thursday, he did get outdueled by Cleveland's Trevor Bauer in a 2-1 loss. But Cole allowed only three hits in seven innings. The problem was that two of those three hits were home runs. Ten strikeouts is definitely what you like to see though and over his L3 starts, Cole has 29 K's. 

The Astros may have been shutout yday, but the good news is that they are 13-5 the L3 seasons when coming off a shutout loss. That includes a win back on April 5th over Oakland. The offense should wake up today against Pineda, who has a 7.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his L3 outings. The last two have seen him allow 10 runs in nine innings. In eight career starts vs. Houston, Pineda's ERA is 4.66. The Twins have won four in a row, but three of those were against a terrible Baltimore club. The win streak ends today as Cole gets "back on track" and the Astros aren't in as tough a situation (i.e. not coming off Sunday night game). 8* Houston

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have been outscored by 19 runs so far this season, which is the fourth worst run differential in the entire National League. But give them some credit, they have managed to go 14-13, including a 5-2 win Sunday over the Brewers. That kept them from being swept here at Citi Field and they're just 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East. Normally, with a run differential like that, you'd find me looking to fade, but that's not the case here. Not even w/ the Reds having the opposite profile (i.e. losing record, but positive run differential).

Cincinnati has had two really big wins this year. Back on April 9th, they beat Miami 14-0 and would go onto sweep that series. (Note: I had them in that 14-0 win). They also just beat St. Louis 12-1 on Friday. Take away those two games and the numbers get pretty dire, especially at the plate. This is one of baseball's worst offenses as they'll come into Monday ranked dead last in team batting average (.208) and 29th in on base percentage (.280). They were held to just two runs on Sunday (both coming in the top of the ninth) in a loss Sunday at St. Louis. Other than the two aforementioned games, there's only been one other time all season that the Reds have scored more than five runs in a game, which is crazy. They've been held to three or fewer in just over half their total games.

So Monday's starter for the Mets, Zach Wheeler, shouldn't have much trouble shutting down this lineup. Wheeler has a 4.85 ERA, but he's pitched better recently w/ a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP his L3 starts (all three quality). Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings vs. Philadelphia and had 11 strikeouts (and no walks). Give him the edge over Reds starter Tanner Roark, who has a misleading 3.25 ERA seeing as his WHIP is 1.601. That means Roark has giving up more baserunners than you typically like to see and eventually that'll catch up w/ a starting pitcher. How about here? 10* NY Mets

10* NY Yankees (4:05 ET): The Yankees might be missing some key pieces from their lineup right now, but they've been able to piece enough together to easily beat the Giants in the first two games of this Interleage series. Now they go for the sweep Sunday and I'm not anticipating much trouble for the team wearing pinstripes. The outlook for San Francisco is obviously very bleak as they are going to be one of the worst teams in the National League. They just can't score as only two teams (Miami, Pittsburgh) have put fewer runs on the board. They are also 29th in team batting average and 30th (i.e. last) in OPS. Time to break out the brooms. 

Based on what we've seen so far from starter Domingo German, this appears to be a shockingly low price on the road team. After a slow start to the season (again, injuries), the Yanks have really turned it around, winning eight of the last nine ballgames. Granted, they're not exactly beating the best teams (KC, Angels, Giants), but you can only play who is on the schedule. Despite all of the injuries, NY is still 5th in all of MLB in runs scored, which is really impressive when you think about it. They've scored 13 so far in this series (two games) and that's w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat! 

Speaking of pitchers, German has been solid so far w/ a 1.90 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in four starts. Last time out, he went 6 2/3 innings and only allowed one unearned run. It was his third consecutive quality outing. The Giants lineup, also besieged by injuries, is obviously unfamiliar w/ German. Even if they were familiar, it's not as if this is a strong lineup - even when at full strength. Dereck Rodriguez has pitched pretty well for the Giants in four starts, but this is a total fade against his team, which continues to do little offensively. The Yankees have gone 28-14 against the National League the L3 seasons. 10* NY Yankees 

8* Under Orioles/Twins (2:10 ET): Baltimore can't seem to beat Minnesota as the Birds are 0-5 so far in 2019 against the Twins. That doesn't figure to change Sunday and what would be nice about the home team winning here is that it would likely mean NOT playing the bottom of the ninth and that's always a nice advantage when playing the Under. But regardless of whether not the Twins win here, I like the game to stay Under. Yes, neither starting pitcher for Sunday has been impressive. But don't be surprised when this ends up being a relatively low-scoring game.

Baltimore took a 9-2 loss yesterday (lost 6-1 Friday) as they continue to pace all of MLB in a dubious category, that being the most runs allowed. They've allowed 180 runs in 28 games and that's 22 more than any other team. Remember that this was a historically bad team in 2018 (115 losses!) and things don't figure to go much better this season. Four of the last six games have seen the O's get held to three runs or less. One positive is that they are giving up a lot less runs per game on the road (4.9) compared to at home (8.2!). Dylan Bundy (winless in 5 starts) will get the baseball today. Though only one start has gone longer than five innings (it was his last one), Bundy has surrendered 3 ER or less in 4 of those 5 starts.

Minnesota counters w/ Kyle Gibson. He too is off his best outing of the year. It just so happens those respective starts came against each other! Bundy went six innings and while he was charged w/ four runs, two were unearned. Gibson was better, allowing just two runs on five hits, also over six innings. He finished w/ 6 K's and no walks. The Twins have obviously not allowed many runs to Baltimore so far in the series (just three) and in the five wins against them this year, they've allowed just 18 total. Visitors are averaging just 3.1 rpg at Target Field this season. 8* Under Orioles/Twins

10* Over Marlins/Phillies (6:05 ET): There isn't much that the Marlins are very good at, but scoring runs is perhaps their weakest area. Through 25 games, they have scored a grand total of 68 runs. That's easily the fewest in all of baseball. Things have gotten especially dire of late with them being held to three runs or fewer 9 times in the last 10 games. Take out a 9-run effort vs. Washington on 4/20 and they've been held to 13 runs - total (!) - in the other nine games. They've been shutout FIVE times in that stretch, including last night, 4-0 by Philadelphia. 

Going against Jake Arrieta tonight, the Miami hiitters probably aren't feeling too good about their collective or individual prospects. Arrieta is back to pitching at an All-Star Level in 2019, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.147 WHIP. He's been quite consistent too; though last time out saw him allow a season-high four runs (three earned) in six innings against the Mets. Now that was the Mets' second time seeing him. But tonight will also be the second time Miami has faced Arrieta this year. The first, as you may have guessed, did not go well. Arrieta allowed just one run over 7 IP w/ 8 K's. The Phillies won the game 9-1. 

That game showed the Phillies can send a game Over the total w/o much, if any, help from the Marlins. I'm banking on that being the case again here. The Over is 7-3 the L10 times Miami has faced a starter w/ a WHIP below 1.15. Now the Phillies' offense has been pretty dormant of late too; scoring 1 or 0 runs in four of the last six games. But expect them to wake up today against embattled Miami starter Trevor Richards. Now Richards hasn't pitched poorly per se. But he has an 0-5 TSR and has definitely been shaky his L2 times out. After allowing a season-worst five runs to the Cubs on April 15th, he gave up two HR's to Washington his last time out. The Over is 6-0-2 the L8 times Richards has started against a team w/ a winning record. 10* Over Marlins/Phillies

analysis soon

10* Under Padres/Nationals (7:05 ET): I expected more from the ballclub out of D.C. at the start of the season. Right now, the Nats are a game below .500 and in 4th place in the NL East. The good news though is that no one in the division is pulling away. I think this series is going to go well for them, however. However, for tonight's opener, I'm a little leery about laying the juice, even w/ Max Scherzer on the bump. That's because San Diego's starter Matt Strahm also happens to have strong numbers in spite of a losing record. Thus, Under is the call for Friday as runs should be few and far between in this matchup. 

Scherzer has a 4.45 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in five starts. Those numbers are higher than what we're used to seeing from him. But at home, Scherzer has a 2.61 ERA and 1.016 WHIP. That's more like it. Yet the Nats have somehow managed to go 0-3 w/ him on the mound at home. If you think this has to be due to a lack of offense, well, you'd be correct. The Nats have scored just five runs in those three Scherzer starts. They've scored three runs or fewer for him in all but one start this year. It was a rough outing last time out in Miami, but Scherzer still has a 44-5 KW ratio this year and a 2.34 career ERA vs. San Diego w/ 85 strikeouts in 57 2/3 IP.

The Nationals are missing some key pieces from their lineup, so that makes the job easier for Padres starter Strahm. Based on how he pitched his last time out, Strahm may not even need the help. He went eight innings vs. Cincinnati and gave up just one run on two hits. That followed a strong effort of five scoreless innings vs. Arizona. Since struggling in his first start Stahm has a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP his last three. Five of San Diego's last six games have stayed Under the total. It would be nice if Washington could have the lead heading into the ninth here as we could then avoid needing the final three outs (not play the bottom of the 9th). That certainly could be the case. 10* Under Padres/Nationals

10* Pittsburgh (12:15 ET): This play is very similar to Sunday's winner on the Padres in the sense that the Pirates, the home team in the series, is facing the prospect of a four-game sweep. Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series. Taking San Diego in that spot Sunday worked out for us, so I'll back the Bucs as well. It's not just the scenario though. One would have expected more from the Pirates coming into this series, given their (still) impressive pitching numbers. One of their better pitchers will be on the mound this afternoon. 

Arizona has now won 9 straight games here at PNC Park. That's pretty surprising. They've come in and outscored the Pirates 25-7 in the first three games of this series, including an 11-2 win last night. Ketel Marte homered twice, but the real key was three straight doubles (all w/ 2 outs) in the top of the 7th. This is the D'backs longest win streak in a park other than their own in franchise history. Coming into the year, I was a definite "seller" on this ballclub (as were many), thinking they'd surely regress due to an offseason that saw them say goodbye to more talent (Paul Goldschmidt) than they brought in. I still feel they are going to be a losing team here in 2019. 

The D'backs will have Zack Greinke on the bump here and he's gone 3-0 his L4 starts overall. But he still has a 5.74 ERA on the road, mostly due to a poor 1st start to the season. Pittsburgh counters w/ Jameson Taillon, who also had a less than stellar 2019 debut. But since then, he's been pretty much lights out. The Pirates have won the last two times he's pitched. In his last start, Taillon allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. That actually ended up being a "complete game" due to rain. So Taillon is also a little more "rested" than usual here. Each of those L2 starts also came on five days rest. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Under Mariners/Padres (3:40 ET): Last night, I took the Padres as I said I was "unsold" on Seattle's shockingly good start to the season. The Padres won 6-3, holding the Mariners w/o a HR, which is no small feat. It was just the second game ALL YEAR that a Seattle hitter failed to hit one out of the park as they have recorded a record-setting 56 HR's in 26 games. But remember, this is a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter. Thus, the M's lineup is not at full strength here. Offensive regression was inevitable anyway moving forward, so Under is the call today.

Though they scored six times for me last night, it's not as if San Diego is some kind of offensive powerhouse. They came into yday averaging just 2.8 rpg at home w/ a team batting average of .220. As per usual, you can find the Padres near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories. But on the opposite front, they have to be encouraged from what they've seen from Wednesday's starter, Chris Paddack. He has a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four starts. While Paddack has yet to win a decision (0-1), the team has gone 3-1 w/ him on the mound. 

There are so many signs that Seattle is going to regress that I could probably publish an e-book on it! Honestly, the regression has already started w/ them dropping 7 of the last 10 games. As I wrote yday, "This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs." The offensive numbers, particularly the # of home runs, almost HAVE to start going down. Petco Park should help take care of that. As for starter Felix Hernandez, while he's no longer "King Felix" anymore, he does have a 5-1 career record when pitching in San Diego. His ERA/WHIP are 1.63/0.775 w/ an opponents batting average of .170. This will be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Mariners/Padres

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): This is an annual Interleague rivalry, but something is different about it this year and that's both teams actually come in sporting winning records. When was the last time that happened? The Padres, who started 11-5, got back over .500 w/ a win on Sunday over Cincinnati. While that was going on, the Mariners were losing to the Angels. What's unique is that the two teams were in very different positions Sunday. The Padres were looking to avoid getting swept in a four-game series at home, and they did (I was on them!) while the Mariners were looking to finish off a four-game sweep on the road (which they failed to do). 

San Diego had lost six in a row before winning Sunday. But it also wasn't that long ago that Seattle had lost six in a row. The entirety of that losing streak came at home and I faded them a number of times during it. I am not a buyer on the Mariners' hot start. This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs. I don't think we should expect the current club's 11-2 record away from home (includes two games in Japan) to be maintained either. 

We have two rookie pitchers starting in Tuesday's opener. For Seattle, it will be Erik Swanson, who has just one start under his belt. In it, he allowed just one run and two hits in six innings (vs. Cleveland). Impressive, but not a large sample size to draw any real conclusions from. San Diego will go w/ Nick Margevicius, who has made four starts so far and the first three all saw him allow just 1 run (3 ER total allowed in 16 IP). He struggled his last time out (vs. Colorado) and while facing the power of this Mariners lineup (56 HR's in 25 games) is a little bit worrisome, don't be surprised if the Seattle offense struggles in this series (no DH). 8* San Diego

10* Under Giants/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): This is a National League team playing in an American League park, so the designated hitter is in play. But I'm not sure how much that helps the Giants, who are one of the weakest hitting teams in the sport and the Blue Jays aren't much better. San Francisco comes in having scored only 67 runs, the third fewest in either league. They average less than 3.0 runs/game for the year and have been held to three runs or less in four straight games and 7 out of the last 10. Toronto is hitting just .209 at home so far. Take the Under.

The Blue Jays' starting rotation appears to be in massive trouble now that Matt Shoemaker is done for the year w/ a torn ACL. The injury took place on Saturday as Shoemaker led his team to another victory. Toronto is 5-0 w/ Shoemaker on the hill this year and just 6-12 otherwise. That includes an 0-4 record w/ tonight's starter Trent Thornton pitching as he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. Yet the Under is still 3-1 in those four starts, revealing how anemic the Jays' offense has been at times. They've scored three runs or less in three of Thornton's four starts. Note that Thornton had allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in his first 10+ innings of work this season. That was against two bad offenses (Detroit, Cleveland), so I'm sure he's capable of rebounding here. San Francisco is also next to last in the NL in on base percentage. 

 The Giants have gone Under in four straight and are 14-7-2 Under on the year. Helping keep them in games is the fact they are giving up only 3.5 rpg. Their games are consistently among the lowest scoring in all of baseball. Jeff Samardzija has surprisingly given them a strong four efforts, well, with the exception of the last one (against Washington). But the first three saw Samardzija allowed just 3 ER total. Toronto comes in hot, having just swept Oakland while scoring 20 runs in three games. But they'll cool off here. 10* Under Giants/Blue Jays

10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): Something will have to give when two pretty lousy teams meet Monday at Camden Yards. I see the White Sox having a pretty decided edge here as they get to go up against the struggling David Hess, who was tagged for six runs in his last outing, which lasted all of two innings. Plus, the Orioles are just 1-9 at home after getting swept by the Twins over the weekend. Chicago dropped 2 of 3 in Detroit, including a one-run decision on Sunday. But they benefit from the fact Saturday's game got rained out while Baltimore has had to play three games in the last two days. 

Hess has has lost his three starts, posting a 9.23 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. It was Tampa Bay that shelled him his last time out and a really troubling sign for the right-hander is that he's given up a total of 7 HR's his L3 starts. His teammates didn't do much better over the weekend, getting swept in a doubleheader on Saturday and then losing again on Sunday. They were outscored 26-15 in the three games. Since the start of last season, Baltimore is down almost 50 net units. They project to lose another 100 games this season. Betting against them at this price seems like a good idea.

Chicago will turn to Manny Banuelos in this spot. He hasn't started at the big league level since 2015. He has worked four times in relief this season, the longest of those stints going 3 1/3 innings. His last 9+ innings of work, Banuelos has allowed just two runs on five hits. It was a tough loss yday for the White Sox as they couldn't score until the 8th inning, wasting a strong start from Reynaldo Lopez. But scoring shouldn't be an issue against Hess. The Orioles have lost 18 of Hess' last 22 starts and are 0-6 their L6 times facing a southpaw starter (Banuelos is a lefty). They also have lost 41 of their last 51 series openers. 10* Chi White Sox

8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Reds came into this series having not won a single road game all season. (Well, except for one in Mexico). Now, they've won three in row. That dramatic turnaround lends itself to a play on host San Diego today as the four-game sweep remains pretty rare these days when you're the home team. The Padres know this all too well as last Sunday they lost in Arizona after taking the first three games of that series. That begat a six-game losing streak for the team, the last five of which have all come here at home. The streak ends Sunday. 

San Diego hasn't had much offense during the losing streak, scoring just 13 runs. They've been held to two or fewer in five straight. The good news though is they many not need much offense today w/ Joey Lucchesi on the mound. Lucchesi has pitched very well in his three starts at Petco Park, posting a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. Those numbers were even better before he ran into Colorado here on Monday. His first two starts saw him toss 10+ scoreless innings w/ 13 strikeouts. This is Lucchesi's second season in the bigs and he also pitched well here at home in his rookie campaign. All told, he has 105 strikeouts in 96 1/3 IP at Petco.

Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle comes in on a similar trajectory as Lucchesi: two strong starts followed by a rough one. Last Tuesday, Mahle allowed 4 runs and 11 hits against the Dodgers. The Reds also haven't done much scoring for Mahle this year, totaling just three runs in his three starts! Remember that the Reds had been swept in three of their first six series. Their offense remains as bad as any in all of MLB w/ a .195 team batting average for the year. That's dead last and it drops to .179 on the road. The Padres should avoid the sweep here. 8* San Diego

10* NY Mets (2:15 ET): The Mets were forced to call up Chris Flexen for yesterday's game in St. Louis to replace the injured Jacob deGrom. That went about as well as expected w/ Flexen allowing six runs in his first big league start since last July. The Mets lost 10-2 and just to rub salt into the wounds, Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas not only dominated them from the mound (allowed just four hits in 8 IP), but also at the plate w/ a pair of hits of his own. But the Mets are in luck today as they'll have Noah Syndergaard starting. I look for them to bounce back. 

The Mets are now 11-9, but have been outscored by 17 runs. That's not a great sign for the future, but Syndergaard makes the present appear strong. Now it's hardly been a dominant start to the year for Syndergaard. In fact, he has a 5.62 ERA after four starts. He's allowed four runs or more three times. But the Mets are 3-1 when Syndergaard takes the mound. He also has a 3.08 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. With the deGrom injury, the club is now counting on Syndergaard to lead the rotation for the time being. I'm betting on him stepping up big in this spot.

St. Louis will go w/ Dakota Hudson, a converted reliever that was shelled his last time out. Hudson allowed six runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Milwaukee, a 10-7 loss for the team. Hudson has yet to go a full five innings in any start this season and now has a 6.39 ERA and 2.368 WHIP. Chances of him outdueling Syndergaard here seem small. Making matters tougher is that the Cards are 0-4 the last 4 times they've been coming off a game where they scored 5+ runs. The Mets are 21-8 the L29 times Syndergaard has started and they scored two runs or fewer the previous day. 10* NY Mets

10* Under Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): Houston dropped three of four to Tampa Bay in its first series of the season. Little did we know how good the Rays would be looking at this point. But the Astros have Walso certainly gotten on track, winning 12 of their last 15. Two of their three losses came against the Rangers. But that was before they ripped off 10 straight wins. That win streak ended w/ a 2-1 loss in Oakland Wednesday, but the 'Stros got back on track last night and gained a measure of revenge by beating the Rangers 7-2. With the Under now 10-3 in their 13 road games, that's the way I'll play this one.

Texas has not had much offense the last three games, but last night was particularly anemic. They finished w/ two runs on four hits, the third straight game w/ five or fewer runs and nine or fewer hits. Both runs scored last night came from solo home runs and one wasn't until the ninth inning. I don't see them doing much tonight against Astros starter Gerrit Cole, who has pitched at least six innings in all four starts. He's given up three runs or less in each of the last three, one of which was against these Rangers. That start saw Cole betrayed by his offense, which did not score. Last time out, Cole finished w/ 11 K's in a win over Seattle. He has a 0.92 WHIP and all three road starts have stayed Under. 

The Rangers counter w/ Adrian Sampson, whose only prior start did not go well. He lasted just four innings and gave up seven runs. I expect better here as Houston is only averaging 3.7 rpg on the road. (Fortunate for them, they're only giving up 2.8 rpg). Sampson has faced the Astros in relief this season, going six innings on April 1st and he held them to one run on four hits. It's the only time he's ever faced them. Given how good Astros' pitching has been so far and that Cole has a 2.61 ERA in six career starts vs. Texas, you have to figure the Rangers won't do much at the plate and I don't think Houston will be as prolific as they were yday either. 10* Under Astros/Rangers

10* Under Mets/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Everyone but Miami has their eyes on the pennant in the NL East this year. Of the four viable teams, the Mets are the only ones to be outscored this season. They're sitting at 10-8 overall, but have a -10 run differential, which is not great for predicting future outcomes. It's still early obviously, but the fact they have allowed a NL-high 113 runs so far is an ominous sign. Keep in mind this is a pitching staff anchored by the likes of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The Over is 13-4-1 in all Mets' games so far this season. But I think this series opener in St. Louis is set to go a bit differently. 

St. Louis has the same 10-8 record as the Mets, but they have a +12 run differential, which says they've played the better baseball. They've certainly played better recently, winning 7 of the last 10 games, although they needed a 6-3 win Wednesday in Milwaukee to avoid a sweep in that series. It's been almost a full calendar year since the Cardinals took the field against the Mets as all six meetings last year took place before the end of April. They split the six meetings the Over going 4-1-1. Again though, I look for a different result here. 

Two of the oldest starting pitchers in all of baseball will face off here. For the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright appears to be beating Father Time. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.125 WHIP and is off B2B quality starts. He's allowed just 10 baserunners in his last 12 IP. Last time out, he didn't give up a hit until there was one out in the sixth. Granted, that was the Reds he was facing, but it was a similar story the start before that (against San Diego) where he allowed only 1 run in six innings w/ a 9-0 KW rate. Jason Vargas has admittedly NOT pitched well so far for the Mets, but he can only improve compared to past outings (lasted only 1/3 of an inning last time out!). The Under is 3-0-1 the L4 times Vargas went 4 innings or less in his last start. 10* Under Mets/Cardinals

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): These teams have similar records, but delving into the box scores reveals that the Dodgers have played significantly better than have the Brew Crew. While the 12-8 Dodgers happen to have a NL-best +29 run differential, Milwaukee (12-7) has actually been outscored on the year (by two runs). These clubs met not long ago, in LA, and going into the series finale the Dodgers were on a six-game losing skid. They haven't lost since, having beaten Milwaukee 7-1 on Sunday, then sweeping the Reds. It's time to show "who's boss" in the Senior Circuit.

Thursday's starter for the Dodgers is Julio Urias. He also started the opener of the last series vs. Milwaukee. He lost the game, giving up five runs in five innings, to stay winless on the season. That made it B2B suspect starts for Urias after he didn't last long in Colorado either. He did open the year w/ a strong effort though; five shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Giants (7-0 KW rate), so he's certainly capable of pitching well. Something else to consider here is the Dodgers' offense. They lead the National League in runs scored, batting average and OPS. 

That's all trouble for Brewers' starter Zach Davies, though he admittedly tamed the Dodgers bats when he faced them five days ago. He allowed just one run in seven innings, scattering eight hits. The Brewers are now 3-0 in Davies' starts this season. That was one of only two games so far that LA was held to 1 or 0 runs. So while it's a "feather in the cap" of Davies, I seriously doubt he can turn the same trick twice. Also, the Brewers' top hitter Christian Yelich was just 2 for 12 in the last series vs. LA. The Dodgers are the better team here and I expect them to show that tonight (and the rest of the weekend for that matter). 10* LA Dodgers 

8* Over Blue Jays/Twins (1:10 ET): The two starters for this series finale come in w/ a combined 4-0 TSR this year, but quite frankly I'm not sure either can be counted on for any kind of consistent basis. For Toronto, Clay Buchholz is making just his second start of 2019. The first couldn't have gone much better as he allowed just one run while scattering six hits over six innings and the Blue Jays stunned the Rays w/ a 9th inning rally to win 3-1 as +190 dogs on the ML. Minnesota's Michael Pineda has a 3-0 TSR, but is averaging just 5 innings per start and it's not like the Twins' bullpen isn't suspect (see Monday's game). I see this one goinig Over the total. 

Now Toronto's offense has been pretty poor so far. They are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, batting average and OPS. But there's been a recent uptick w/ them averaging 4.6 runs over the past seven games. Before getting held to just the one run yday, they'd scored at least four times in six of their previous seven contests. I believe they'll be able to get to Pineda, who has given up a HR each of his L2 starts. Remember that Pineda sat out all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. While his pitch count has increased w/ every start, it's still a relatively "short leash" and he probably won't go deep into this game. 

Buchholz has also battled injuries and his best days are clearly behind him. Velocity on his fastball was way down (89.6 MPH average) vs. Tampa Bay and he managed just two strikeouts. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs their last seven games, which is an impressive number. Also, the Over is on a 13-6 run (dating back to last year) coming off a game where they allowed 2 runs or fewer. Though the home team is expected to take care of business here (and thus we may not play the bottom of the ninth), the O/U line is still below the key number of 9.0. 8* Over Blue Jays/Twins

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Arizona took the series opener 9-6, but look for the Braves to bounce back at home. As "advertised," they look to have a significant edge in the starting pitching department tonight. Kevin Gausman has a 2.84 ERA and 0.868 WHIP after two starts while Arizona's Zack Godley has been battered around in three starts, leaving him w/ a 7.41 ERA and 1.471. Godley's lone road start to date was a complete disaster w/ him allowing eight runs at Chavez Ravine. He's also allowed multiple HR's in two of his three outings. I like Atlanta in this spot quite a bit. 

The Braves had a 5-2 lead last night going into the 7th inning. But the bullpen gave it away. First, it was allowing four runs in the 7th. The offense was able to tie it back up in the bottom half of the inning, but then the D'backs got a HR from Christian Walker to lead off the ninth and that was all she wrote. They even tacked on a couple more runs for good measure. The Braves' bullpen performance highlights the need for Gausman to "step up" and fortunately he should be able to do just that. He has a 6-1 TSR his last seven starts at home dating back to last season. 

As bad as Atlanta's bullpen has been this season, Arizona's has actually been worse w/ a 6.03 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. So, even with what unfolded yday, I'm not concerned w/ the late innings. Especially considering that I expect the Braves again to have the lead early here. Godley has pitched a lot on the road the L2 seasons and has won plenty of games, but his career ERA on the road (4.54) leaves a lot to be desired. As I already mentioned, he was knocked around in LA earlier this year. Since the start of last season, he has an ERA approaching 6.00 away from home. In three career starts vs. the Braves, his ERA is 7.40.  10* Atlanta

8* Under Royals/White Sox (2:10 ET): Coming into the season, I wasn't expecting much from either of these two ballclubs and the first 15 (or so) games haven't affected my view one iota. The White Sox have won three in a row, including the first two games of this series as they've held the Royals to 1 and 4 runs. With KC now averaging just 2.8 rpg, I'm not expecting much from them offensively today. But Chicago isn't exactly a "murderer's row" at the plate either. In 9 of the past 10 games, they've been held to five runs or fewer. The last four have all gone Under. Take the Under in this matinee. 

Lucas Giolito gets the baseball this afternoon for the White Sox. It's certainly been a less than stellar start for him individually as he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his three starts. But the team has gone 2-1 w/ him on the mound. Given that information, it should not be shocking to learn that the Over is a perfect 3-0 in Giolito starts. But the Royals appear to be the ideal opponent for a turnaround. Giolito is unbeaten (4-0) in seven career outings vs. KC w/ a 2.40 ERA. That includes earlier this year where he held them to just two runs and three hits (6 2/3 IP) for his only quality start of 2019. He had eight strikeouts as well. 

Brad Keller will the starter for Kansas City. He has pitched quite well this season. He's 4 for 4 in terms of quality starts and comes off what was perhaps his best effort EVER as he had a career high 10 K's vs. Cleveland. He limited the Indians to one run on three hits. Earlier in the year, Keller faced the White Sox and threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. In between that start and the last one, he tossed a pair of six inning efforts while giving up just three runs both times. Overall, Keller has allowed only seven runs in 25 2/3 IP. Believe it or not, no pitcher in all of baseball has a higher number of consecutive starts going at least six innings than Keller, who has done in 10 straight times (dating back to LY). 8* Under Royals/White Sox

10* Under Reds/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers have done plenty of scoring so far this season. Their 113 runs lead the National League and are 2nd most in all of baseball, trailing only Seattle (130), who gets to use the DH. But they were held to just four runs last night by the Reds, a team that gave the Dodgers plenty of trouble last season. Dodger Blue still won the game mind you, 4-3, in walk-off fashion. But in between the 1st and 9th innings, there was just one run scored in the game. I believe LA's offense will continue to "cool off" while their pitching holds the Reds in check. Take the Under. 

Kenta Maeda gets to follow Clayton Kershaw in the rotation. Last night saw Kershaw make a successful return, throwing 57 of 84 pitches for strikes. He allowed just two runs on five hits over 7 IP and had a 6-0 KW rate. Maeda should also have little difficulty shutting down a Reds lineup that has struggled the first month of the season. The Reds have been held to just 55 runs in 15 games, but even that's a little misleading as they scored 14 in one game. Take that away and they are averaging less than 3.0 rpg over the other 14 contests. They're batting just .210 overall and are near the bottom of the league in every major offensive category. 

But if the Reds are to have a fighting chance Tuesday, it will be because of starter Tyler Mahle. In two starts, Mahle has a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's allowed just one run in 11 IP and it was a solo HR. Other than that, he's given up just six other hits. Both starts were very low-scoring games as the Reds lost 2-0 to the Pirates and beat the Marlins 2-1. Cincy is 11-4 Under in all games so far. The Dodgers have gone Under in three straight (after starting 11-4 Over) and while the Over is 3-0 in Maeda starts, that's due to an overwhelming amount of run support, the likes of which will start to subside. Maeda has always been a better pitcher at home as evident by the fact he went 8-1 here two years ago w/ a 2.87 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. 10* Under Reds/Dodgers

8* Houston (10:07 ET): The Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now as they've won nine straight games. I took them in all three wins they had over the weekend in Seattle, citing numerous factors, mainly on the Seattle side as that was a team due to regress (following an extraordinary start). Another team I have earmarked for regression in the AL West this season is Oakland. They stunned everyone by making the playoffs last year (as a Wild Card), but they did so by going a MLB-best 31-14 in one-run games. They weren't as fraudulent as Seattle was LY, but the A's won't be winning 90+ games again, that's for sure. Keep riding Houston. 

It was a strong statement made by the Astros over the weekend as they took all three games up in Seattle. None of the wins came easy, but the bottom line is this team hasn't lost a game since April 3rd in Texas. The win streak began w/ a three-game sweep of these A's, at home. (In between sweeping the division rivals, they also swept the Yankees). Collin McHugh will look to keep things going Tuesday and he figures to pitch well in this spot, considering he held the A's to one run on three hits (6 IP) when he faced them earlier in the month. He followed that up by holding the Yankees to two runs on four hits, also over six innings. McHugh has a 2.65 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his three starts this season. He is 9-1 w/ a 2.78 ERA lifetime vs. Oakland. Another key is McHugh will be backed by what has been the AL's best bullpen so far (2.70 ERA). 

Oakland's bullpen (4.39 ERA) is clearly inferior to that of the Astros and starter Marco Estrada doesn't match up well w/ McHugh either. Estrada hasn't pitched poorly per se, but his team start record (TSR) is 0-4 this year. He did not face Houston in the previous series, but he did just allow six runs (in 4 IP) in an ugly loss to Baltimore last Monday. He's already given up five HR's this season and has only 10 K's in just over 20 IP. Not sure having seven days off will matter for Estrada as McHugh is also pitching on five days rest and he's got a 14-3 TSR in that situation. The Astros have taken 40 of the last 58 games vs. Oakland. 8* Houston

10* Over Cardinals/Brewers (7:40 ET): St. Louis is coming off a two-game split w/ Cincinnati, a series which took place down in Mexico. Yesterday saw them score nine runs in two big innings, most of it due to the bat of Marcell Ozuna, who homered twice. His three-run shot in the top of the 1st got things goings and then a solo shot in the 7th pretty much put things away in what ended up being a five-run frame. Milwaukee missed out on a chance to sweep the Dodgers yday, losing 7-1, but Miller Park has seen its fair share of scoring so far this season. I'm on the Over here. 

We have two starters here that haven't pitched very well in 2019. St. Louis may not get the "cluster luck" it enjoyed in yday's game vs. the Reds, but they should certainly be able to get to Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta both early and often. Peralta has toed the rubber three times so far and those three starts have produced a 6.91 ERA and 1.396 WHIP. His one start here at Miller Park was real bad and it happened to come against the Cardinals. Peralta allowed four runs and was gone after just three innings. Milwaukee ended up losing 9-5, the only game they dropped in that series.

Milwaukee is allowing more than six runs per game at home so far, but the good news is they're also scoring more than six per game. That prior series here vs. the Cardinals saw them average just under 5.0 per game. Moving from pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine to back home should wake up an offense that was held to one run on four hits yday. Also beneficial will be facing Dakota Hudson. This will be the Brew Crew's second time seeing Hudson as they faced him in the prior series and got to him for four runs in 4 1/3 innings. They homered three times off him. The Over is 7-0-1 following the last eight times Milwaukee was held to two runs or less in its last game. The Over is also 9-2 in the Cardinals' last 11 series openers. 10* Over Cardinals/Brewers 

8* Over Mets/Braves (7:05 ET): The Mets are in first place in the National League East, but are just 3-3 their last 6 games. They were denied the chance to go for what could have been a four-game sweep here in Atlanta as they lost yday by a count of 11-7. Nevertheless, the Mets lineup is humming along quite nicely. They have scored six or more runs in seven straight games, averaging 7.3 per game to be exact. They've got to be feeling good about their chances going into Sunday night as Jacob deGrom is the starter. But deGrom did allow six runs - and three homers - his last time out. I'm going w/ the Over tonight. 

Atlanta should probably be taking a step back this year after winning the division in 2018. Yesterday's game was their best offensive performance of the season, but it's not as if they've struggled to score runs. They're averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg so far. While it's been the Mets that have been an Over team (10-3-1 in all games), the Braves are 3-0 Over in starts made by Julio Teheran, thanks in large part to Teheran being charged with 10 runs. Six of those came in his last start (at Colorado), but the Braves still won. 

So both starters here allowed six runs in their last start. Now deGrom didn't give up ANY in either of his first two outings and is obviously one of the best pitchers in all of baseball (maybe THE best?). But that last one showed he's not immune to giving up some runs. With the Mets' last seven games averaging nearly 15.0 runs per, I expect this one to go Over what is a low total. 8* Over Mets/Braves

analysis soon

6* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): The Phillies were embarrassed Saturday as they fell behind Miami 10-0 and didn't score until the 9th inning. I expect them to bounce back though on Sunday as the Marlins figure to be the proverbial "punching bag" in the NL East this season. The other four teams in the division, Philadelphia included, all have their eyes on the postseason. Miami projects to be a 100-loss team. The win yday was just the 4th of the year for the Fish, who have won B2B games only one time and are 2-9 here in April. Their starter for Sunday doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

The Phils go w/ Vince Velasquez today. He's started only one game so far, but aside from allowing a HR, he looked very good. He allowed just four hits in five innings of work and didn't walk anybody. The team desperately needs a strong effort out of Velasquez here as pitching staff has given up 10+ runs in three of its last four games. But two of those were against Washington. I look for this to be along the lines of Friday's 9-1 victory as Velasquez has a 3.18 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Miami. Before yday, the Marlins had scored a grand total of just two runs in its last four games. Yesterday was a season-high in runs and hits (18), but they still average only 3.0 rpg for the year. 

There simply isn't much good to report with Jose Urena, who will be getting the baseball for a 4th time here in 2019. Miami's starter has produced some ugly numbers thus far (8.56 ERA, 2.121 WHIP) and even worse is the fact he has NEVER won a decision in March or April. Talk about a slow starter; Urena is 0-7 in 18 appearances (9 starts) in March or April w/ a 5.97 ERA. He also has a 4.92 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) against Philadelphia. The Phillies are still averaging 5.8 rpg this year and they're 3-1 off a loss. It seems like a smart bet to expect them to bounce back. 6* Philadelphia 

6* Houston (9:10 ET): I loved the Astros last night and while it was "dicey" early on, they ended up pulling out a 10-6 victory thanks to TWO grand slams. I'll come right back with them again for many of the same reasons I stipulated in yday's analysis. Seattle's 13-2 start was downright shocking to me, considering I had them earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. 

Houston is no stranger to winning as they've now come out ahead in seven straight games. They'll send Justin Verlander to the bump Saturday. Verlander has had two quality starts out of three, beating the Rays and Yankees. I really like what manager A.J. Hinch did yesterday, using two starters. Right now, Hinch is going with just a four-man rotation due to a favorable upcoming schedule that has more off days than normal. This will allow for the Astros to have their best pitchers on the mound more often. They are 19-4 in Verlander's last 23 road starts.

Seattle was able to get to 89 wins LY by going 14-1 in extra inning games and 36-21 in games decided by one run. They've already won five one-run games this season and are 2-0 in extra innings. But again, I feel their luck is about to run out. There's just no way they can maintain the offensive pace they set to start the season. Starters are still 9-0 this season, but Felix Hernandez isn't the same old "King Felix" anymore. He left his last start after just one inning due to flu-like symptoms and had already given up two runs on three hits. Hernandez has a 1.58 WHIP so far. Houston is the far better team here and the pricing speaks volumes. 6* Houston

10* Over Cardinals/Reds (7:10 ET): Friday was an off-day for both the Cards and Reds as this abbreviated two-game series will be played down in Monterrey, Mexico. Travelling outside the country might not be what either team had in mind right now, considering how the respective last series went. St. Louis is coming off a very impressive four-game sweep of the Dodgers and has won five in a row overall. Cincinnati got off to a terrible 1-8 start, but it turns out that hosting Miami was as easy as it looked on paper. The Reds swept that three-game series, holding the Marlins to a total of ONE run. Things figure to be a lot different against the Redbirds, however, as they have done plenty of scoring in recent days. Take the Over here.

St. Louis had scored exactly four runs in four straight games, including the first two vs. the Dodgers, before exploding for 7 and 11 the last two days. You would have made a nice profit betting on the Cardinals in that last series as - despite playing at home - they were ML underdogs in all four games. I expect the offensive surge to continue tonight against the Reds' Tanner Roark, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.929 WHIP after two starts. Roark failed to go more than five frames in either start. He has a 6.58 ERA in seven career appearances vs. St. Louis. 

Perhaps no remaining series will go as easy for the Reds as the last one did. They outscored Miami 19-1. It was much needed given how the season started. They had failed to top five runs in any of their first nine games and were shutout four times. Even after the series vs. Miami, they've still scored more than five runs in only one game, but I like their chances here against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is 37 years old and not off to the best of starts to 2019. While he looked good at home vs. San Diego, he struggled on the road vs. Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Wainwright's career ERA vs. the Reds is 5.09 in 29 appearances. The ball will travel in this stadium the next two days. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds 

9* Houston (10:10 ET): I've been waiting for a matchup like this where I could begin to fade Seattle, who is off to a shocking 13-2 start. I say "shocking" because they are one of the teams I had earmarked for regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. The Mariners were able to get to that record by going an unfathomable 14-1 in extra inning games, not to mention 36-21 in games decided by one run. Starting today though, their "luck" is about to run out. 

Like Seattle, Houston has won six straight coming into this series. The Astros haven't been quite as dominant as the Mariners so far, who have scored the most runs in all of baseball and thus have a +42 run differential through 15 games. But again, Seattle has still been fortunate to win five one-run games (tied for most) and they are one of three teams to be 2-0 in extra inning games. So that's now a 41-22 mark in one-run games since the start of last season & 16-1 mark in extra innings! Ridiculous! Now, their rally yday (won 7-6 in 10 innings) brought me good fortune as I had the Over against KC. But now it's time to fade.

Houston just completed a perfect 6-0 homestand, sweeping the A's and Yankees, two playoff teams from a year ago. Unlike Seattle, they had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage coming into this weekend series. The Astros will send out Wade Miley, a former Mariner, who has a 2.89 ERA against his former team. Miley faces an offense that's on a record-setting pace, but at the same time it has to eventually slow down. The Mariners starting rotation is a perfect 9-0 so far, including Wade LeBlanc's 2-0. But LeBlanc hasn't exactly pitched "well" w/ a 4.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in those starts. He has a 5.65 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Astros. 9* Houston 

10* Under Indians/Royals (8:15 ET): Kansas City has been a clear 'Over' team so far this season w/ a 9-2-1 record that way. Their first game of the season went Under too, so that's a 9-1-1 Over mark the L11 games. In fact, I just played the Over in their game yday vs. Seattle, which saw them blow a 6-3 lead and lose 7-6 (total was 10.0). It was also the Royals' 10th consecutive loss after 2-0 start. Cleveland's start to the season has gone in a much different direction. They've won 6 of 7 and most of their games have been low-scoring. Look for this to be an "Indians type game" and for the Under to come in. 

Cleveland is averaging just 3.6 runs per game w/ a team batting average of .198. Only two teams in all of baseball are hitting for a lower average and, ironically, it's the two teams they just faced - Toronto and Detroit. Not surprisingly, the Under was 5-2 in those two series. With a struggling offense, the Tribe has been fortunate that it's pitching staff is getting the job done. Opponents are scoring just 2.9 rpg for the year and they held the Blue Jays & Tigers to an average of 1.7 rpg. After struggling in his first start of 2019, Carlos Carrasco was pretty dominant vs. Toronto, striking out 12 in five innings while allowing only two runs. He gets the baseball tonight. Cleveland has given up just 35 runs in 12 games, the 2nd fewest in all of MLB, and five of those runs were unearned.

This will be a much different series for Kansas City, at least in terms of the opponent. The results may very well be the same as they were against Seattle, who swept them in four games here at Kauffman Stadium. They allowed 32 runs in four games to the highest scoring team in all of baseball. Again, that's almost the same number of runs Cleveland has allowed all season! But as noted above, the Indians have a much weaker offense than the Mariners, one that Royals' pitching should be able to "control." Through three outings, Friday starter Brad Keller has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Both KC Unders this season have come w/ him on the bump. Going back to the end of last season, Keller has not allowed a HR in seven consecutive starts. 10* Under Indians/Royals

6* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are off to a shockingly poor 3-9 start, not even resembling the club that completely dominated MLB is 2018. On their way to a fourth World Series crown this century, the Red Sox won 108 regular season games and finished up a stunning 42.5 units overall. Now, they're in the hole a league worst -11.1 units after losing to Toronto (7-5) on Tuesday. But I expect them to bounce back tonight at Fenway Park as this team is too talented to keep losing this many games.

Aside from the seven runs they scored on Tuesday, the Blue Jays have not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball to start the season. Tuesday's game did mark a new season-high in runs scored for any game. In 8 of 12 games, they've been held to three runs or fewer. Collectively, they are batting a putrid .193. While 3-0 in starts made by Matt Shoemaker, they're 1-8 w/ any other starter on the mound. Tonight, it'll be Aaron Sanchez getting the baseball. While he has a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP after two starts, Sanchez has a 4.06 ERA in 19 career games vs. Boston. 

The Red Sox offense is performing nowhere near LY's level, having been held to 1 run or less in three games and shutout twice. But lack of scoring is a secondary concern to the number of runs they're giving up right now. Only Baltimore has allowed more runs so far this season. Nathan Eovaldi will try to put a halt to that tonight as he looks to improve his team start record to 3-0 this year. Eovaldi has faced Toronto four times in his career and no Blue Jays hitter has more than five hits against him. Dustin Pedroia is now back in the Boston lineup, which should help the offense. Furthermore, Boston is 27-10 its last 37 games vs. Toronto, including 10-2 the L12 at Fenway. 6* Boston

8* Over Mariners/Royals (1:15 ET): Seattle has absolutely shocked me w/ this start to the season. Not only are they 12-2, but they've put 110 runs on the board in 14 games for a MLB-leading average of 7.9 rpg. So even though they put six more on the board in last night's win (also KC's 9th straight loss), the M's scoring average actually went DOWN. But the game still went Over (6-5 final), something that all but three Seattle games have done this season (11-1-2). I'll call for that Over streak to continue this afternoon. 

Seattle has scored 6 or more runs in all but two games this season. That is pretty incredible. They are the only team besides the 2002 Indians to homer at least once in each of the first 14 games, dating back to 1908. Their 34 total HRs tie the 2000 St. Louis Cardinals for the most EVER through 14 games. It's impressive to match those marks as the 2002 Indians and 2000 Cards were part of an "enhanced era." The pitcher they'll face today, at least initially, gave up two home runs in his first start. That would be Jorge Lopez, who hasn't been terrible for the Royals, but he hasn't exactly been great either (4.09 ERA, 1.364 WHIP). Both starts went Over. 

A problem for Lopez in both starts was a lack of run support. He was on the wrong side of a no-hit bid that went into the 7th inning in his first start. His second was a no-decision. I should mention that the Royals' bullpen has been pretty bad so far w/ a 7.04 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. But I expect the Royals offense to perform well against Mike Leake, whose 2.92 ERA is a little misleading considering his WHIP is 1.46. Leake has allowed plenty of baserunners in his two starts (18) plus he gave up two home runs his last time out. The Over is also 2 for 2 w/ him on the mound. 8* Over Mariners/Royals

analysis soon

analysis soon

analysis soon

7* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): Really like the Reds today. Yes, what was supposed to be a breakout season for them has started poorly. They have lost eight in a row since winning on Opening Day. There are multiple reasons for this, but a key one seems to be "bad luck." Only one time have the Reds lost a game by more than two runs this year. Half of their losses have come by exactly 1 run. I believe this series is where they get back on track as they'll host the lowly Marlins for three games. Miami was projected to be the worst team in the NL this year and I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from that projection ringing true.

The Reds have already been shut out four times this year, three of those by Pittsburgh. But getting to face the struggling Jose Urena may be the cure for what ails this line. In two starts, Urena has a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP. Both starts were at home and saw him allow a total of 11 runs (2 unearned) in just 8 2/3 IP. He's been knocked around for 16 hits. Not surprisingly, the Marlins lost both games. Despite the home team's offensive struggles here, Great American Ballpark is known to favor the hitters, so I wouldn't expect a strong showing for Urena here.

Pitching has not been a problem for Cincinnati, especially when Luis Castillo is on the bump. While he's yet to record a victory, he owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his two starts. He was the starter on Opening Day, the lone game the Reds have won this year. Castillo was then a hard luck loser here at home against Milwaukee last Wednesday as he allowed just one run in 7 IP (1-0 final). He's due to get a win and a Marlins team that is just 3-7 is the right opponent for that to happen. Miami is only hitting .197 on the road. 7* Cincinnati

10* Under Dodgers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): The Dodgers pulled off a Sunday night by besting Colorado 12-6. The Rockies are certainly an opponent they have manhandled through the years and a part of that is taking advantage of the opportunities Coors Field provides for opposing hitters. The Dodgers scored 29 runs in the three games there and now average 8.2 rpg for the season, which is #1 in baseball. They'll face a starter in Miles Mikolas who has not exactly been dominant in his two starts for St. Louis. But you can't help but think there will some offensive decline moving forward for Dodger Blue. Take the Under here. 

While the Dodgers have won five straight and are off to an 8-2 start, the Cardinals are scuffling a bit at 4-5. They did down San Diego yday by a score of 4-1. That result halted an Over streak of four straight games for the Redbirds, who are now 6-2-1 to the Over this season. Both teams are among the leaders in going Over this season w/ the Dodgers 8-2. But, again, I can't help but think BOTH offenses are due to cool off a bit shortly. Remember that Dodgers' pitching also stands to benefit from leaving the confines of Coors Field. 

I mentioned earlier that the start for St. Louis, Mikolas, isn't exactly off to the best start here in 2019. But the same cannot be said for Dodgers' starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 w/ a 2.08 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Ryu has looked good in both starts, giving up a total of just three runs in 13 IP and he has 13 strikeouts against zero walks. He did allow a HR both times out. But the Cardinals are batting just .227 as a team so far. Incredibly, the Dodgers have scored 10 or more runs in game four times already this season, but they've "got" to cool off. Let it be known that both of Mikolas' starts were on the road. The Under is 5-2 his L7 home starts against teams w/ winning records and he posted a 2.17 ERA/0.974 WHIP here at Busch Stadium last year. 10* Under Dodgers/Cardinals

10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros came into this series at just 2-5 on the year while Oakland had won five of six, including an impressive series vs. the Red Sox (took 3 of 4 games). But it's been Houston flexing its muscles this weekend, taking the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 6-0. It's important to note that the 'Stros hadn't played a home game before this weekend while the A's had gotten hot at home and hadn't played on the road since opening the year with two games in Japan. I see Houston finishing off the three-game sweep here as starter Brad Peacock was dominant his first time out. 

Peacock threw 6 2/3 innings last Monday and allowed just one run on two hits. Houston won the game 2-1 in Arlington. Despite getting off to the fast start, Oakland's lineup has not been scoring a ton. After being shutout yday, that's four of the last five games they've failed to score more than three runs. There have only been three games so far where they've score more than four runs and one was the season opener. So Peacock should be in good shape here. Note Houston pitching has allowed more than four runs only one time this year. 

The A's will go w/ Michael Fiers, who is off B2B dominant starts at home. He's thrown 12 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits. But to say Fiers has been "overpowering" during this time would be a misnomer. In fact, he has only five strikeouts against three walks. It should also be pointed out that Fiers struggled when he pitched over in Japan against Seattle, allowing five runs in three innings. The homefield edge has definitely proven to be significant for Houston in this series and I look for them to improve to 40-18 the L58 head to head matchups vs. Oakland. 10* Houston 

8* Under Twins/Phillies (1:05 ET): The loss of the DH is an obvious disadvantage for the American League team anytime they have to go to a NL park for Interleague play. But the Twins didn't have any problems at the plate yday as they rolled the Phillies 6-2. For the Phillies, it was just their second loss of the year as well as the first time they'd been held under five runs. I don't expect Minnesota to score as many today, but Philly should be held in check as well. I base this off the starting pitching matchup as we have Jose Berrios taking on Zach Eflin. Take the Under here.

Berrios has already started two games for the Twins and both went well. The first was more impressive as he struck out 10 on Opening Day vs. Cleveland across 7 2/3 scoreless innings (allowed only 2 hits). But it was another quality start on Tuesday, this time on the road, as he held the Royals to three runs in seven innings. Theoretically, Berrios should benefit here from facing a NL lineup that sends the pitcher to bat. Even though the Phillies are strong 1 through 8 in the order, I feel Berrios is up to the challenge. The Under is 7-3-1 in his L11 Interleague starts. 

Philadelphia will go w/ Eflin in this spot as he's looking to build off the five shutout innings he delivered against Washington on Tuesday. He struck out nine and walked only one batter as the Phils rolled to an 8-2 victory that day. Eflin allowed just three hits as well. He was a much better starter at home than on the road last season, so this is a good spot for him. As I mention in my analysis for Friday's game (had the Phillies), the Twins struggled mightily on the road last year, going just 29-52 while averaging 4.1 rpg. The Under is 5-1 the last six times Eflin has started on exactly four days' rest. 8* Under Twins/Phillies

7* Cleveland (4:10 ET): We're looking to make it 3 for 3 in this series w/ the Indians. Thursday, it was Trevor Bauer taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning in what ended up being a 4-1. Friday was a 3-2 win, in walk-off fashion, with Carlos Santana delivering the game-winning HR. While Cleveland's offense has been fairly anemic to this point, they did hit two HR's yday, doubling their previous total from the first six games. As I've detailed each of the last two days, Toronto is - in many ways - the perfect opponent for Cleveland right now as they have been every bit as anemic at the plate to start the year.

Carlos Carrasco was abysmal in his first start, giving up six runs and 10 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. The Indians lost that game 9-3 to Minnesota, but starting pitching has been outstanding so far in this series w/ Bauer and Shane Bieber limiting the Jays to three hits total in the two games w/ 17 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Carrasco should bounce back here against a Blue Jays lineup that is hitting a collective .190 so far this season, including 3 for 30 in the 1st innings w/ 12 strikeouts. Yesterday marked the sixth time they've been held to three runs or fewer in eight games. There have been four games where they entered the sixth w/ no hits! So, like I said earlier, Carrasco should bounce back here. 

 Toronto has not been a good road team the last several seasons, going 67-97 overall, including 2-6 here at Progressive Field. Saturday starter Thomas Pannone doesn't seem likely to reverse that trend as he's only in the rotation due to a demotion (Sean Reid-Foley). Pannone had been working out of the bullpen and had one shaky and one effective appearance. He may not go long and that's a problem considering his departure weakens an already suspect Blue Jays bullpen that had not been carrying its weight compared to the starting rotation. The Indians have cleaned up in day games the L3 seasons, going 77-46. 7* Cleveland 

10* LA Angels (4:05 ET): The Halos snapped a five-game losing skid last night, beating Texas 3-1. Mike Trout hit a pair of homers to lead his team to victory and now for the first time all year they'll try and win two straight. I like their chances. While the offense simply hasn't been "there" for the Angels so far, they should break out today against Rangers starter Drew Smyly, who allowed six baserunners and a homer in just three innings Monday. That was his first start since the end of the 2016 season and it required 58 pitches to get through the first two innings. It's a little surprising that Texas "only" lost that game, 2-1. 

Both Saturday starters would seem to be question marks heading into the game. The Angels' Tyler Skaggs only lasted 4 2/3 innings in his first start of '19. There are concerns of "forearm fatigue" w/ Skaggs, though he looked good early against Oakland on Sunday, retiring the first eight batters he saw in order. But after that, things got a little more dicey as he needed 33 pitches to get through the third inning and was pulled after just 86 pitches total. Like Smyly, Skaggs allowed a HR and his team lost the game 2-1. But I thought Skaggs looked the better of the two and he has the advantage of having dominated Texas twice last season.

In two starts vs. the Rangers last year, Skaggs went 2-0 w/ a 0.82 ERA. He had 13 strikeouts in 11 IP and tossed six shutout innings when he faced them here at home. Obviously, he's going to need some run support, but against Smyly, Trout and the Angels lineup should deliver. The Rangers were not projected to do well this season, so a 5-2 start should be taken w/ the proverbial "grain of salt." The Angels have taken 14 of the last 21 head to head meetings and 6-1 the last seven times they've played host. Texas did come in and win the first game on Thursday, but it's difficult for me to see them winning the series. 10* LA Angels

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This package has a National League matchup, an Interleague matchup and we conclude w/ an American League matchup. I took the Indians yday in what looked like a real "buy low" scenario w/ a bonafide Cy Young contender on the mound. Boy, did Trevor Bauer come through as he tossed seven no-hit innings against Toronto, leading the Tribe to a 4-1 victory. The home team should win again Friday as their offense has to eventually come around. Even if it doesn't, the Blue Jays are only hitting .190 themselves, so a few runs is all Cleveland starter Shane (don't call me Justin) Bieber should need here. 

This will be Bieber's first start of the season, but he did make a brief relief appearance on Sunday vs. Minnesota. A case could be made that Bieber would have been the Opening Day starter for any other team in the AL Central. Last year was his rookie season and he went 11-5 overall, including a win at Toronto. As touched on already, the Blue Jays are not hitting much so far in 2019. They're averaging just 3.0 rpg and yday was the third time they were held to 1 or less. Incredibly, last night was the fourth time this season they entered the sixth inning w/o any hits! 

Toronto, like Cleveland, seems to have some strong starting pitching on hand. Only once in eight games has the starter given up more than 2 ER. That includes a nice big league debut from tonight's starter Trent Thornton, who threw five shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. Detroit on Sunday. Thornton has an unusual delivery and was held to just 75 pitches in that first start. Working on a pitch count is beneficial for his future, but the team may suffer in the interim if the bullpen can't produce. Honestly, the Blue Jays' bullpen may not even matter given how bad the offense has been. The L3 seasons have seen Toronto go just 67-96 in the U.S, including 2-5 at Progressive Field. 8* Cleveland

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I had my doubts that the Phillies could live up to lofty expectations that were set after bringing in Bryce Harper late in the Spring. But so far, so good as they have started the season 4-1 and outscored opponents by 17 runs. The only loss suffered came two days ago, to Harper's former team (the Nationals), by a single run (9-8). A wild, back & forth game saw the Phils take an 8-6 lead into the bottom of the eighth, only for some sloppy play to cost them the game. But, at home, I like them to bounce back against a Minnesota club that will obviously be at a disadvantage playing in a NL park (no DH).

The Twins are also 4-1 w/ their only loss coming by one run. They have won three in a row, though the last two games were played against the lowly Royals. In a weak AL Central, Minnesota is right to believe they have a chance to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy, but (as always) pitching remains a question mark. Jake Odorizzi gets the baseball here and he did look good in his first start, giving up only a solo HR in six strong innings vs. the Indians last Saturday. He also finished w/ 11 strikeouts, tying a career-high. But I don't expect him to be as effective here. Even w/ the pitcher coming up to bat, the Phillies are a stronger offensive team than the Indians as they are averaging 7.8 runs per game. Odorizzi, like most American League pitchers, is also a massive liability at the plate. 

Philly will counter w/ Nick Pivetta, who was admittedly not that effective against Atlanta on Saturday. But his team still got the win, 8-4. The Phillies' bullpen seems to be a question mark right now, but I imagine that and the fielding woes will work themselves out. The Phillies have won all three home games this season and the Twins were not good on the road last year, posting a 29-52 record. 8* Philadelphia

8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Today is a make up game for yday's rainout. It's the Cardinals' home opener and I believe itll be worth the wait for Redbirds' fans as I expect their team to get the job done Friday afternoon. No game was originally scheduled for today (in anticipation of Thursday possibly raining out), so it's the same pitching matchup that was set for yday. St. Louis had delivered B2B come from behind wins (both against Pittsburgh) prior to this series while San Diego is off to a better than usual 4-3 start, though all seven games were played at Petco Park. 

Starting here for the Cardinals will be Jack Flaherty, who finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting last year. His first start of '19 did not go particularly well as he gave up four runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. But two prior starts against San Diego have gone well w/ him allowing just two runs on six hits across 11 1/3 IP. The Padres hit just .154 off him and lost both games. I expect Flaherty to bounce back from the subpar 1st outing of the season as he posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.035 WHIP at home last season. Helping him will be the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who has already homered four times in his first six games wearing a St. Louis uniform. 

At the plate, Goldschmidt and the rest of the Cards will be getting their 1st look at Padres' rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive big league debut last week w/ five shutout innings before giving up a run in the sixth. He had 5 K's and zero walks. Unfortunately for Margevicius, the Padres would go on to lose that game, 3-2 to the Giants. Despite now fielding an allegedly better lineup than years' past, San Diego has yet to score more than five runs in a game this season and has been held to three or fewer four times. I'm not yet sold enough on Margevicius to believe he can overcome a lack of run support. 8* St. Louis

6* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a less than inspiring off-season, the Indians came into the year once again favored to win the (weak) AL Central. They seemingly own a very significant edge in starting pitching over the rest of their division rivals, but so far that's been of little consequence due to an anemic offense that's w/o both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The Tribe have scored of a total of 13 runs in five games so far and are just 2-3 overall after dropping a game to the White Sox yday by a score of 8-3. Outside of Monday's 5-3 win in the home opener, this team has not scored more than three runs in any other game. 

But fortunately for today, they do have (perhaps) their best pitcher on the mound. That would be Trevor Bauer, who many feel is set to supplant Corey Kluber as the ace of this rotation. Bauer was as good as advertised in his first start of '19 where he held Minnesota to just one run on one hit over seven strong innings. The Indians actually won that game, 2-1. You have to remember that Bauer was dominant before getting hurt last season as he posted a 2.31 ERA (third lowest) and 1.103 WHIP. His career numbers against today's opponent are not great, but he's a much better pitcher today compared to the past. 

Toronto was able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep (at home, no less) by beating Baltimore yday 5-3. Their own starting pitching has been pretty great this year, at one point posting 24 straight scoreless innings. Five of those came from Thursday's starter Marco Estrada, who held Detroit to just three hits in the third game of the season. But Bauer is the better pitcher here and Estrada's ERA in three career starts vs. Cleveland is 5.06. The Jays are only batting .202 in the early going themselves. This is a good matchup for the Indians. 6* Cleveland 

8* Under Red Sox/A's (3:35 ET): I won w/ Boston yday as they finally got on track. Things did not look good early when they were down 3-0. But they were able to tie things up w/ a run in the fifth and two more in the six, then won it w/ a three-run ninth. That 6-3 win snapped a four-game losing streak for the World Champs. I mentioned in yday's analysis that at no point during last season did the Red Sox lose four in a row. They finished +42.5 units for the season and Oakland was right behind at +35.0. So combined they made +77.5 units and were 1-2 overall at the betting window. It will be interesting to see how much of a chunk, if any, comes out of those respective profits this season. 

Oakland had won four in a row going into last night, including two straight shutouts of Boston. Considering what the Red Sox accomplished at the plate last season, that's mighty impressive. Wins were by 7-0 and 1-0 margins and it appeared (for awhile at least) that a third straight shutout might be in the cards as Wednesday's starter Marco Estrada was sharp early. While the Red Sox were then able to score six runs in the final five innings, I wouldn't look for that to carry over to tonight. Speaking of scoreless streaks, Oakland's starter for tonight (Brett Anderson) is working on a 34 1/3 inning scoreless streak going back to last season. His first start of '19 saw him toss six shutout innings against the Angels.

No one in the Red Sox lineup has ever homered off Anderson, who is 6-4 lifetime vs. Boston w/ a 3.48 ERA. He'll be opposed here by Eduardo Rodriguez, who coincidentally has had the A's number through the years. Four career starts against Oakland have produced a 2.33 ERA, including 1.69 in two on the road. Rodriguez did get roughed up in his season debut, but should bounce back tonight as the A's have scored more than four runs only once all season. They've been held to three runs or less three times in the L4 games, including a 1-0 victory Tuesday. 8* Under Red Sox/A's

10* Boston (10:07 ET): It's difficult to feel bad for a team like the Red Sox, who had virtually everything go their way last year en route to a fourth World Series title in the L15 years. They won 108 games, making an astounding 42.5 units for the season. So the rest of the league certainly isn't "crying" over the fact they've started 1-5 in 2019. But after giving up 41 runs in the first five games, they allowed just one yesterday and still lost (shutout for the 2nd straight day here in Oakland). I think it's time for the World Series Champs to win one tonight. 

Since dropping two games to the Mariners over in Japan to start the year, Oakland's pitching has been lights out. Starters have allowed just one run in the last 36 innings of work and Boston has yet to be able to score a single run in this series. Marco Estrada will start for a third time tonight and while he's yet to win a decision, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Angels last Friday. But don't expect Estrada to find that kind of success here. He has a 4.68 ERA in 17 career outings against the Red Sox and is 4-8. He'll face a motivated Boston lineup that didn't lose four in a row at any point in 2018. Now they've done it in the first six games of 2019. 

For the Red Sox to get the win here, they'll need a better effort from starter Nathan Eovaldi than the one they got Friday. Granted, that was also the only game Boston has won all year. But Eovaldi allowed three HR's and six runs total. This is a pitcher that was very effective last year though, so expect a bounce back performance. Over his L7 starts of '18, Eovaldi posted a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Boston is too good and too talented to continue losing. Oakland is a team I had regressing this year and I think we'll see a major reversal of fortunes tonight. 10* Boston

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays won yday, 4-0, and now are 5-1 on the young season. They've won five straight since an Opening Day loss to the Astros, where I played against them. Now we circle back and things are obviously looking "up." Not only are the Rays off to a hot start, but their main competition in the AL East - the Red Sox & Yankees - are both struggling. Since it's very likely both of those teams will eventually turn things around, it would be a good idea for Tampa Bay to keep racking up the early season wins. I think they stay hot Wednesday afternoon and win again. 

Colorado is trending in a different direction right now w/ four straight losses. They come into 2019 still looking for the franchise's first ever NL West pennant. Even the Rays, who came into existence five years after the Rockies, have won the division at least once. But a history lesson isn't what the Rockies need right now. Rather, it's some offense. During the four game slide, they've been shutout twice and scored only four runs total. Tropicana Field doesn't seem like a likely place for them to turn things around, however. No team allowed fewer runs per game at home last year than the Rays and in six games this year, they've allowed a total of just TEN runs! Even w/ the DH, I expect the Rockies' struggles at the plate to continue here. 

Starting here for the Rays will be Charlie Morton. An All-Star LY w/ Houston, Morton went 15-3 in 2018. He helped his new team pick up its 1st win of this season, ironically against the Astros, with a strong effort where he allowed just two runs and three hits (w/ 8 K's) in five innings. Coming off a shutout win, the Rays have gone 16-6 the L3 seasons. Colorado has scored just one run here the L2 days. German Marquez gets the start for them today, but even though he pitched well vs. Miami last week, it won't be enough here. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Red Sox/A's (10:07 ET): The performance of Boston's starting pitchers has been nowhere close to last year and, quite frankly, it's been quite lousy. They've now gone a full turn through the rotation and the results have been ugly w/ 32 runs allowed in 21 IP and 11 HR's allowed. Last night saw David Price serve up three home runs in a 7-0 loss here in Oakland. That was actually the first time all year a Red Sox game didn't go Over and obviously the culprit was their offense getting shutout, which is rare. The offense should bounce back tonight, but the pitching remains a question mark. Take the Over.

There's been a lot of handwringing over the small workload these Boston starters had in Spring Training and whether or not that's led to the poor performances so far. Whatever the reason, Chris Sale was terrible in his 2019 debut as he allowed seven runs in three innings. The Red Sox lost that game 12-4 w/ Sale allowing 3 HR's. That's three times in five games the Boston starter has allowed 3 HR's. Over last year's full 162 game schedule, such an occurrence happened just seven times. While Sale has an outstanding resume, I still see him giving up at least a few runs here. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 6-0-2 the L8 times Sale has taken the mound. 

Oakland's last five games have all been Unders w/ them winning four of them. Two have been shutouts and they've allowed just nine runs total. Michael Fiers has already started two games this year and while he was great his time out (six shutout innings of one-hit ball), he wasn't the first time (allowed five runs in 3 IP). Fiers has as many walks (5) as strikeouts and it's hard to keep this Red Sox lineup in check two days in a row. I expect Boston to definitely rediscover its offense after being shutout yday. While Fiers did have a 21-9 TSR last season, only have of his starts were technically quality ones. 10* Over Red Sox/A's

8* Over Brewers/Reds (6:40 ET): It may not have been a home run, but Christian Yelich still won the game for the Brew Crew last night in Cincinnati. His go ahead double in the top of the 9th was the difference maker in a 4-3 win, the first game all season where Yelich did not hit a HR. Milwaukee is now 4-1, though they've only scored one more run than they've allowed in those five games. Three of those four wins have come by one run. This evening, I anticipate a higher scoring game than expected as neither starter is exactly Cy Young. Take the Over here. 

For the second time this year, Milwaukee will send out Jhoulys Chacin to the mound. Chacin was the difference maker with his bat, not his arm, in the team's 5-4 win over St. Louis on Opening Day. He hit a home run in the 5th inning that would ultimately prove to be the difference. As for his pitching performance, he yielded three runs over 5 1/3 innings and gave up multiple home run. Chacin's career marks against the Reds are not great as 10 appearances have produced a 3.86 ERA. Two starts last season resulted in no decisions and a 4.82 ERA over 9+ IP. The Over is 4-0 in Chacin's last four road starts vs. a team w/ a losing record.

As for Reds' starter Anthony DeSclafani, outside of a good August, 2018 just wasn't his year. Then again, no Reds starter really delivered in a year where they produced a combined 5.02 ERA. (Only San Diego was worse among NL teams). DeSclafani's final six starts of last season resulted in an ugly 6.75 ERA and he didn't win a single decision during that time. His ERA was slightly higher at home last year than it was on the road. Three starts against Milwaukee saw him post a 6.00 ERA. He's 3-3 w/ a 4.91 ERA in eight career appearances against them. Whether it's because of Yelich or someone else, this game goes Over. 8* Over Brewers/Reds

7* Toronto (7:07 ET): All things considered, it was an incredible impressive weekend for the Orioles as they took two of three from the Yankees. Both wins came as ML dogs of +270 or higher, so your bankroll would be in nice shape had you bet Baltimore. The O's can't possibly be as bad as they were last season when they won only 47 games and lost a mind-numbing 53.5 units at the betting window. But they're still likely a 100-loss team, so tonight would be a good opportunity to fade them considering the relatively low price and the fact Sunday's game in NY ended later than scheduled due to a long rain delay. 

Toronto split its opening series with Detroit. They won the middle two games, both in shutout fashion. I had the Under in one of those and even though they split the four games, Blue Jays skipper Charlie Montoyo has to be ecstatic about his starting pitching, which did not yield a single run in 24 IP vs. the Tigers. The Blue Jays gave up just six runs overall in the four games and that number would have been only three were it not for extra innings. Sean Reid-Foley will look to continue the trend tonight. He's starting in place of Clayton Richard, so Baltimore is being somewhat caught off-guard here. The Orioles have never faced him before. 

Obviously, given how well the pitching performed, Toronto would have hoped to do better than a split w/ Detroit. The "blame" thus goes to the offense, which could only put up 12 runs in the four games. Still, that's twice as many as they allowed, so they should have won that series. Both losses came in extra innings. I expect the Jays lineup to get on track tonight against O's starter David Hess, who they are now familiar with after facing him three times in 2018. Baltimore's bullpen also remains a major question mark w/ no established closer. Toronto deserved better over the weekend and will "make up" for it here at the expense of what's still the worst team in MLB. 7* Toronto