8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Thanks to a hot start, the Mets continue to lead the NL East, but it's been 10 days since they've won B2B games and signs of regression are in the air. While 14-6 overall, they've only outscored the opposition by 16 runs. That latter number is less than the two surprising division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta and in fact ranks only fifth in the Senior Circuit. Starting Tuesday, they'll be at one of the teams ahead of them in run differential, that being St. Louis. The Cards just swept Cincinnati for a second time this year and while they're only 6-8 against teams "not named the Reds," I believe tonight's opener is likely to go their way. Look for starter Lance Weaver to bounce back from a rough outing last Thursday, which happens to be the ONLY game the Cards have lost over the past week.

These teams opened the season against one another w/ the Mets taking two of three at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom pitched NY to victories in the first two games of that series, but the Metropolitans could not overcome Weaver in the series finale, losing 5-1. That happened to be the Mets' lone loss in the first 12 games, but they've since fallen back down to Earth, losing five of their last eight. Over the weekend, they dropped two of three to Atlanta (Sunday rained out) w/ the one win coming in extra innings. Moving forward, I seriously doubt the Mets are going to be able to continue scoring 5.0 rpg on the road as their team batting average away from Citi Field is just .215. Starter Zach Wheeler did not pitch in that first series vs. St. Louis, but is 0-2 all-time against the Cardinals w/ a 4.76 ERA.

Wheeler has started only two times thus far, but he'll start to come up in the rotation more often now that Matt Harvey has been jettisoned. The good news for Wheeler is that he was great in his first start, which saw him go seven innings and allow just one run on two hits. But that was also against sorry Miami. Last time out, he did offer a quality start by going six innings and allowing just three runs. But he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2), which isn't a good sign. Meanwhile, Weaver has a 17-3 KW ratio and should bounce back from the rough effort vs. the Cubs last week. In his first three starts, Weaver allowed 2 ER or less and just 4 total. His one home start thus far saw him hold Arizona to just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. 8* St. Louis

10* Oakland (8:05 ET): Go ahead and tip your cap to the A's for what they did over the weekend, beating Boston twice. Lefty Sean Manaea pitched the first no-hitter in almost a quarter century vs. the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out 10, in a 3-0 win on Saturday. Then came Sunday when Kris Davis hit a game-winning, three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth to give the team a 4-1 victory. Consider that going into the weekend, Boston had lost only two times all season and one of those ocurred on Opening Day! Oakland's own record is now "squared away" at 11-11 as they head to Arlington to face Texas. While concern over a "letdown" is legitimate in this spot, I'm not overly worried as these Rangers are not a good team. They own the AL's fourth-worst record and run differential. 

Overall, the A's have won six of their last seven ballgames. In five of those wins, they've allowed two runs or fewer. They'll hand the baseball to Trevor Cahill tonight, hoping he cotinues the trend. Cahill is responsible for one of those five gems as his 1st start of '18 really could not have gone any better as he pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball w/ 8 K's. Granted, it came against the White Sox, but Texas isn't much better. The Rangers rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game and even w/ yday's 7-4 win over Seattle (allowed them to avoid a sweep), they're just 3-10 at home this season. Cahill is 10-4 w/ a 2.79 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Texas, who has posted B2B wins only one time this season. 

It also helps Cahill's cause that the Oakland offense has been rounding into form. Over the last seven games, the team is averaging 6.0 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .279. Meanwhile, pitching has been the weak spot for this Texas club, who is 25th in runs per game allowed (5.2). They got a surprisingly strong effort from Martin Perez yday vs. the Mariners, but I wouldn't count on the same thing today from Matt Moore, who is struggling w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.707 WHIP after four starts. That's even after a quality showing last week vs. Tampa Bay. But in his first three starts, Moore had allowed 12 runs in 12 1/3 IP and twice had more walks than strikeouts (that's never a good sign). He also is 1-2 all-time vs. Oakland w/ a 7.07 ERA. Visiting teams are averaging 6.4 rpg so far at Globe Life Stadium thanks to a stunning .296 batting average. 10* Oakland 

10* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): After walloping the Rockies here at Coors Field on Friday (16-5!), the Cubs gave one back on Saturday, losing by a score of 5-2. If you're a regular client of mine, you know that I often point to run differential as an instructional tool for how a team is truly performing. Looking at that particular column for these two teams is particularly interesting. Colorado may be 12-10 on the year, but they have been outscored by 22 runs, "thanks" in large part to giving up nearly 5.0 runs per game. Sure, it's easy to blame "the Coors Field effect" for that, but note the Rockies have played 14 of their 22 games so far on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs (who are only 9-9) have a run differential of +22 on the season, best in their division and 4th best overall in the Senior Circuit. To me, it's pretty clear that the Cubs are the better team here & I'll take 'em! 

Free agent acquisition Yu Darvish started yday for the Cubs and for the third time in four starts, he failed to make it out of the fifth inning. We'll certainly be hoping for a better outing from today's starter Carlos Martinez, whose early season returns have likewise not been that encouraging. Two of his three starts have been bad, but note in the third (at Milwaukee), he delivered six scoreless innings of three-hit ball. I'll excuse what happened his last time out as the conditions were miserable in Atlanta w/ 38 degree temperatures and steady rain. Martinez, a native Colombian, didn't really stand a chance. However, it should be noted that the Cubs (who I had in the game) came back and won 14-10. The last time Martinez pitched here at Coors Field, he was wearing a White Sox uniform for the final time and delivered 10 K's in 5 1/3 IP. Ironically, he got a no-decision in that start when his team blew the game. 

The Cubs' offense has largely been "feast or famine" these last eight games. In the four wins, they've scored eight runs or more, including 13+ three times. In the four losses, they've been held to three or fewer. One would think that Coors Field would make things conducive to a strong offensive effort and I suspect we'll get something a lot better than yesterday (even if it's not as impressive as Friday). They'll face German Marquez, who has a 3-1 TSR despite a 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP. He hasn't lasted long in either home start (just 7 2/3 innings total) and gave up seven runs (w/ six walks!) in one of them. The Rockies' offense has been surprisingly scuffling in the early going of the season as they rank last in the NL in team batting average (.218) and they are next to last in OBP (.293). Even in victory yday, they managed only five hits and four of those came in the one inning where they scored all of their runs. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds +1.5. It certainly hasn't been a good season in Cincy thus far, especially when playing the division rival Cardinals. Not only are the Reds a MLB-worst 3-17 overall, but they're now 0-6 head to head with St. Louis and facing the prospect of getting swept for a second time by the Redbirds, Sunday at Busch Stadium. Revenge for a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in MLB handicapping, so I thought taking the Reds +1.5 on Friday was a good idea. But they lost that game, their first since firing manager Bryan Price, 4-2. Of course, yday saw them lose by only one run, 4-3. I'll go "back to the well" on Sunday and call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Reds were "oh, so close" to picking up their third win of the season on Saturday as they tied the game w/ a three-run seventh, only to cede the eventual game-winning HR (by Yadier Molina) in the bottom half of the frame. But Cincy had a chance to at least tie things back up in the top of the ninth when they had the bases loaded, but Scooter Gennett hit into a game-ending DP. It's now 10 straight losses to St. Louis (dating back to last season) for the Reds, their longest losing streak in this division rivalry since dropping 11 straight back in 1949. At some point, they have to break through, right? What you may have already noticed yourself is that the ML is significantly lower here than it was for either of the first two games in the series. Note that St. Louis is just 1-3 this season as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range at home. They're also below .500 in that same range over the L3 seasons. 

I suspect that the dropping of the price has to do w/ facing Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.26 ERA so far (three starts) and opponents are batting .250 against him. Mikolas will be working on a full seven days' rest here as he was jumped in the rotation by Carlos Martinez (started yday) after the Cards had two rainouts in three days. A veteran of the Japanese circuit, Mikolas did not fare too well in his first start here at Busch, giving up four runs. I do not expect him to pitch as well as Martinez did yday. The good news here for Cincinnati is that today's starter Luis Castillo was on the mound the last time the team won (that would be Monday in Milwaukee). Castillo had eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 IP vs. the Brew Crew and has been a bit unlucky in giving up 11 runs overall this season as he's allowed only 16 hits in 17 2/3 IP. The Reds' bullpen, prior to losing yday, had been working on a scoreless streak of 18+ innings. The worm HAS to turn for Cincy here, at least for one day. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Seattle (8:05 ET): I tried coming into 2018 w/ a slightly more optimistic view of the Rangers than most, but this simply looks like a bad baseball team that won't be winning many games. They dropped Friday's series opener w/ the division rival Mariners by a score of 6-2 and thus have fallen to 7-14 on the season, including just 2-9 here in Arlington. They've already been outscored by 36 runs, which isn't the worst margin in all of baseball, but it's not far off (Miami is the worst at -55). Though Bartolo Colon has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the club and will get the starting nod tonight, I'm not sure how confident we should be in him continuing the performances we've seen in his first two starts. Go with the Mariners in this one. 

Seattle will counter Colon w/ James Paxton, who is already making his fifth start of the season (where does the time go?). After a shaky first outing, Paxton has rebounded to allow 2 ER or fewer in each of his L3 starts w/ 24 strikeouts in 23 IP. Last time out, he outdueled Houston's Dallas Keuchel in a 2-1 win as he allowed only one run (on a solo HR) on just three hits in six innings of work. Tonight, he'll face a Texas lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Rangers are averaging only 3.3 rpg so far and have been held below that average in seven of the last nine games! They are also just 1-4 vs. left-handed starters this season.

In his last start, Colon became the oldest pitcher to take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning or later since Gaylord Perry in 1983. He was actually perfect through seven innings. But I would expect steep regression in this spot as he faces a Seattle lineup that pounded out 14 hits last night. Yes, it was a four-run ninth that was the difference for the M's last night, but if not for some strong defense by Texas, the game wouldn't have been as close. Something else worth tracking is that the road team has won seven straight head to head meetings in this AL West rivalry. 10* Seattle

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Like many of the projected favorites to win their respective divisions, the Indians are scuffling right now. They're only 9-8, but I wouldn't worry yet as the American League Central looks very weak on paper in 2018 w/ only Minnesota likely to offer the Tribe anything closely resembling "competition." Furthermore, the Indians' pitching remains top-notch. They are currently top three in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and opposing batting average. Only Houston and Boston are allowing fewer runs per game. Therefore, this "slow start" is clearly "owed" to an offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in most key categories. But after managing only one run last night here at Camden Yards, I'll call for them to get back on track this afternoon. 

Baltimore pitching has not been anywhere near as prolific as that of Cleveland as the O's have given up the third MOST runs per game in the league. Of course, starting pitching has never been a strength w/ this club, at least under Buck Showalter, who has managed to succeed here through a lot of "smoke and mirrors" and because of an excellent bullpen. But the bullpen hasn't been particularly great so far for the O's, due in large part to the fact they have been w/o closer Zach Britton the whole way. I do not expect the starting effort from Chris Tillman to be very good today either considering he's opened 2018 by going 0-3 w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.824 WHIP. Those are some of the worst numbers in the sport, though it should be pointed out he's had to face three of the top teams in the AL (NYY, BOS, HOU), all on the road. While they did win last night, Baltimore had lost six in a row before that. 

Cleveland has had an interesting last seven days as there were numerous postponements last weekend for their scheduled series at home vs. Toronto. Then, it was off to Puerto Rico where they split a pair of games vs. Minnesota. They scored their lone run in the first inning last night, but it should be noted they were facing a good starter in Dylan Bundy. Tonight, they should get back on track against the struggling Tillman. They've gone 1 for 22 w/ RISP the L2 games, which is certainly due to turn around. Mike Clevinger gets the starting nod and had 14 K's in 16 2/3 IP so far. Consider the Orioles are averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 at Camden Yards this season. As a road favorite of -175 or higher, the Tribe has gone 16-7 the past three seasons. 8* Cleveland

10* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. There are three factors that have led me to take the beleaguered Reds in this spot. One is that they just fired their manager, Bryan Price, after four very non-descript seasons. The team's .419 win percentage under Price was the worst in the league during that timeframe and a 3-15 start to this season was looking rather ominous. However, as we see in all sport, a coaching/managerial change often provides a short-term boost to a team. I also like when the Reds chose to make the move, on an off-day. St. Louis, meanwhile, had to finish a series yday w/ the Cubs (lost 8-5) and that's a second reason why the Reds are appealing in this spot. The third and final reason is that Cincy has revenge for a four-game sweep (suffered at home) just last week. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here tonight. 

The numbers are pretty ugly for the Reds so far this season. They've been outscored by a MLB-worst 50 run margin so far and are the first team to start a campaign 3-15 since the 2015 Brewers. The good news for the Reds is that Brewers team did NOT finish in last place in the NL Central that season. That's because the Reds did! But as bad as things have been here, they can only get better now that Price is gone. The team is off B2B shutout losses to Milwaukee, for instance. They've been held to three runs or fewer five times in the last six games. But they did score 10 times in a rare win Monday. Tonight's starter Brandon Finnegan gets a second crack at St. Louis tonight and I find it difficult to believe he won't improve upon last Saturday's performance where he allowed five runs on six hits, lasting only 4 1/3 innings.

St. Louis had a five-game win streak snapped yday and really they were lucky to score five runs as they had only five hits and struck out 11 times. Three Cubs' errors kept the door open in a game the Cards initially fell behind 6-0 after just two frames. Getting back to the revenge angle here, it's difficult to consistently beat the same opponent, day after day, especially if it's a division rival. Starting here for the Redbirds will be Michael Wacha. He was hardly dominant in last week's series vs. the Reds as he lasted only five innings and gave up four runs. In fact, Wacha has yet to make it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season. A failure to do so yet again puts a real "onus" on already taxed Cardinals' pen. At the very worst, I can see Cincy putting some runs on the board late to make this a one-run game (similar to what they did in LW's series finale), but I also give them an excellent shot at winning this game as well! 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): My belief was that this was the series where the Yankees would start to establish themselves in the AL East race and I was rewarded for taking them yday as they prevailed 4-3 over the Blue Jays. Now, I'll call for them to do what they did up in Toronto to start the year and that's take the first two games of a four-game set. The Bronx Bombers came into the year as the consensus favorite to win the division, but they have a lot of work to do now thanks to the historically great start by rival Boston (who is now 16-2!). The Yanks are just 9-8 and still 2.5 gms back of the Jays even after yday's result. But I see the home team continuing to ascend this weekend as they begin to live up to their vast potential. 

New York came into Thursday's series opener w/ a bit of an edge already as they were off Wednesday while Toronto had played three times in the previous two days (played a doubleheader on Tuesday). They were able to take an early 2-0 lead, but the Jays then rallied to tie in the top of the fourth. From there, the Yanks bounced back w/ two more, including an Aaron Judge home run. But the key was reliever David Robertson pitching his way out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the eighth. Of course, given the dollars invested in this Yankees' bullpen, perhaps that shouldn't be all that surprising. Defense is still a bit of an issue here in the Bronx (NY leads AL w/ 17 errors), but offense is not as they are averaging 6.1 rpg here at home. Keep in mind that's with less than stellar results from Giancarlo Stanton. Dating back to last season, Judge has now reached base safely in 23 consecutive home games.

Starting tonight for the Yankees will be Sonny Gray. The veteran is off to a bit of a shaky start in 2018, but that has more to do w/ his last start where he allowed six runs in three innings to the red-hot Red Sox. He's had a lot more success in his career vs. Toronto as he has a 2.09 ERA in nine starts w/ the current Blue Jays lineup batting a collective .215 off him. Opposing Gray will be Marco Estrada, who owns an 11-5 lifetime TSR vs. the Yankees, including a perfect 6-0 in the Bronx. But his ERA in those 16 starts is 4.02, so he's hardly dominated them. Last time out, Estrada wasn't all that effective as he allowed four runs in four innings. He's also issued three walks in two of his three starts this year. He did beat the Yankees in his first start of the season, but did allow two home runs. It might seem like a high price on the Bombers here tonight, but I feel it's more than justifiable. 6* NY Yankees

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Two of the NL's bigger early-season surprises start a four-game series Thursday in an all-Pennsylvania showdown. The City of Brotherly Love will play host as the Phillies look to continue their hot start here at Citizen's Bank Park. They are 5-1 at home and 10-7 overall while outscoring opponents by 20 runs. The Pirates are 12-6, having just avoided a sweep at hands of Colorado at home last night (won 10-2). Their run differential is a comparable +21 and they've done a good deal of their damage on the road where they are 7-2. Something will have to give here and I believe it's going to be the Bucs, who I was not a big believer in coming into the season. I'm not entirely sold on the Phils yet either, but I did see a path to success for them coming into the year.

Jake Arrieta will get the baseball Thursday night for the Phillies as he faces the highest scoring team in the National League. Arrieta is no stranger to the Pirates though, having faced them numerous times over the past several seasons when he was w/ the Cubs. Arrieta's last start, despite having only only strikeout, was very good as he held Tampa Bay to just three runs (only two earned) in 6 2/3 IP. Though the Rays aren't anything special, it's still impressive that he was able to do that against an American League lineup (game was played in TB). Arrieta is 10-6 all-time vs. Pittsburgh w/ a 3.18 ERA. Note that prior to dropping two of three at similarly surprising Atlanta, the Phillies had won six straight. Admittedly, that streak came against some weak competition, but you can say the same about the teams the Pirates have been racking up wins against as well. 

Pittsburgh won 10-2 yday, thereby avoiding what would have been a sweep at home at the hands of Colorado. While I mentioned earlier that this was the top scoring offense in the NL right now, note that before yday's 10-run outburst, they had been held to two runs or fewer in four of five games. Starter Jameson Taillon is off to a great start this year at 2-0 w/ a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP in three starts, but he's faced some weak teams. In particular, the Reds and Marlins, both of whom he shutout for a total of 15 innings. Taillon had more walks than strikeouts his last time out and he certainly isn't going to be able to sustain his current pace moving forward. While many teams have had some unexpected days off due to weather so far, tonight marks the 10th consecutive day the Bucs will be taking the field. That may catch up w/ them as well. 10* Philadelphia

8* NY Yankees (6:35 ET): These two teams started the season by playing one another and ended up splitting a four-game set North of the Border. Since then, however, it has been the Jays taking flight as they are now 12-3 their L15 games after opening 0-2. The Yankees are a meandering 8-8 overall after they could only manage a split against the lowly Marlins and had multiple games vs. Detroit rained out. Both teams are currently staring up at the insanely hot Red Sox, who have gone 15-1 since their own Opening Day loss. But I suspect this series, tonight in particular, will see the team wearing pinstripes start to move up the AL East ladder. They're far too talented to have a mediocre record for long and they've hit quite well at home so far this season. 

The Blue Jays are one of just four teams to have crossed 100 runs scored this season, but in this matchup they're facing a team that averages a slightly higher number of runs per game (5.6 vs. 5.5) than they do. The Yankees average an impressive 6.4 runs per game here in the Bronx where they have not played in over 10 days. They've got a bit of a built-in advantage coming into Thursday in that they were off yday while Toronto was wrapping up its series w/ lowly Kansas City (won 15-5). The day before saw the Blue Jays play a doubleheader (swept that too). Meanwhile, the Yankees have played just twice since Saturday, so they're well-rested coming into this key early-season AL East showdown.

Starting here for the Yanks is the hefty lefty CC Sabathia, who is not exactly off to the best of starts here in 2018. Last time we saw him was nearly two weeks ago vs. Baltimore and he gave up three home runs before exiting in the fourth inning. The Yankees have lost both of his starts so far. He spent sometime on the DL w/ sore hip, but like the team, the veteran southpaw is well-rested coming into this evening. He faced Toronto in the first start of the season and is 17-11 all-time against them w/ a 3.59 ERA. He'll be opposed by Aaron Sanchez, who is using a change-up a lot more often this year and having a good deal of success w/ it. But he also allowed four runs when he faced the Yanks in that first series of the year, lasting only 5 2/3 IP. In two of his three starts so far, Sanchez has had more walks than strikeouts, obviously not a good sign. 8* NY Yankees

10* LA Angels (10:07 ET): In what setup as a marquee early season showdown in the American League, the Angels came up "small" at home on Tuesday, losing to the Red Sox by a score of 10-1. Now, much of the "sizzle" of the matchup was taken away when Angels' starter Shohei Ohtani had to leave the game in the second inning due to a blister on his pitching hand. Not that Ohtani was pitching well anyway. He allowed the first three runs and from there, it was pretty much over as Boston ended up w/ a massive 33-4 edge in total bases for the game. The loss snapped the Halos' seven-game win streak. However, I expect them to bounce back tonight as - last night aside - I'm still a bit skeptical over Boston's start as they've racked up a lot of wins so far against bad teams. 

The Angels are still off to the best start in franchise history (13-4 overall) and though it was disappointing to lose yday in front of such a big crowd, they may be better positioned to win tonight. Tyler Skaggs will get the starting nod and he's looked great in each of his first three starts this season. He's yet to yield more than two earned runs in any of them and last time out he was able to overcome four walks in what ended up being an easy 11-1 win at Texas. Skaggs has allowed just three runs total in his 16 IP and hasn't given up a single home run. The long-ball doomed the Angels last night as Red Sox leadoff man Mookie Betts hit three himself. Something interesting to note, however, is that Boston has yet to homer in B2B games all season. 

Pitching has been the real key to Boston's sizzling start as they've allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of the last 15 games. They've lost just one time since Opening Day and that was to the Yankees. But, as mentioned in yday's analysis, they've racked up a lot of wins against bad teams, such as five against Tampa Bay as well as sweeps of Baltimore and Miami. Rick Porcello will get the baseball tonight after taking a no-hitter into the seventh innings his last time out. He's delivered complete game efforts each of his last two times starting here in Anaheim and won five straight decisions dating back to last year. He's 3-0 w/ 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP so far in 2018, but at this price I can't help but get down on the Angels. Porcello's career marks vs. LA are NOT good as he's 6-7 w/ a 5.82 ERA in 16 starts. Boston is the 1st team to start a season 14-2 since the '03 Giants, so they're due to drop a game. 10* LA Angels

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers haven't had the best start to the season, thanks in large part to their struggles w/ the division rival Diamondbacks. But this series w/ a lesser NL West team, San Diego, should get them back on track. They easily took Monday's series opener, 10-3, at Petco Park and I anticipate they'll roll again tonight. While there may not be a "clear cut" worst team in MLB coming into the 2018 season, I submit the Padres as a contender to that dubious distinction as LY's team may have won 71 games (which isn't very good to begin with), but they were also outscored by a hideous 212 run margin, easily the worst in all of baseball. (The next worst margin was -159). Last year's NL West Champs move closer to a sweep after tonight. 

Alex Wood has an 0-3 TSR and a 5.09 ERA so far for the Dodgers and gets the baseball tonight. However, those numbers are highly misleading when you consider he also sports a 0.792 WHIP! How can one pitcher's ERA and WHIP be "world's apart" like that, you ask? Well, in his last start, Wood surrendered seven runs on seven hits, lasting only 3 2/3 IP. Of the 14 baserunners he's allowed this year, 10 have scored, which is highly irregular. Consider that opponents are batting just .209 against him and he has yet to issue a single walk. Needless to say, the percentage of baserunners scoring is going to decrease moving forward. Tonight seems like a logical place for that trend to begin as Wood has had plenty of success against the Padres in his career. He has a 2.62 ERA in 12 career starts against them w/ 54 K's in 57 IP. That includes a 2.25 ERA here at Petco w/ 35 K's in 28 IP.

San Diego starter Bryan Mitchell has a 5.27 ERA and 2.121 WHIP, but unlike Wood, there's no "sugarcoating" those lousy numbers. He too has an 0-3 TSR, but while Wood hasn't walked a single batter, Mitchell has walked 14! That's in only 13 2/3 IP as well. He has just three strikeouts, so he has to have the worst KW rate of any starter in baseball right now. He's yet to go six full innings in any start and lasted only three his last time out. The last two times Mitchell has started, the Padres have been shutout. Including a win earlier this season, the Dodgers are now 27-14 as road favorites of -175 or higher on the money line. Padres' pitching has now given up at least nine runs the last four times they've faced the Dodgers. 8* LA Dodgers

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): What a matchup we have here as the two hottest teams in the American League square off in the City of Angels. Boston and Los Angeles have started the season at 13-2 and 13-3 respectively and have - by far - the two best run differentials in the sport so far (Angels w/ slight edge at +48 to +42). Something else the Halos have in this series is homefield advantage. While they're 9-1 on the road, that will certainly help against a team like the Red Sox, who have won 13 of 14 since losing on Opening Day. Making matters even more intriguing is the Angels have two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani on the mound as his scheduled start on Sunday was pushed back due to rain. Backed by the top offense in the game, I like Ohtani & the Halos tonight. 

Boston was also rained out yesterday for what was supposed to the annual Patriot's Day game (vs. Baltimore). They'd taken the first three games for the O's, so the team was probably pretty bummed they couldn't rack up another likely win. But as hot as the Red Sox have been, let's note that they've largely been feasting on some pretty weak competition thus far. They did take two of three from the rival Yankees last week (at Fenway), but other than that they've played the Rays (six times), Orioles and Marlins. Those could very well end up as three of the bottom five teams in baseball by season's end, so take Boston's MLB-best 2.06 ERA w/ a "grain of salt." It's rare to find tonight's starter David Price in the underdog role, but he hasn't had much success in his career against LA, going just 5-7 w/ a 3.53 ERA in 16 starts. This will be one of the rare times that Price is NOT the best pitcher taking the mound in a given matchup. 

That's because he's matched up w/ Ohtani, who is quickly becoming the talk of baseball w/ his two-way exploits. In addition to already hitting three home runs as a DH, Ohtani has won both starts (both against Oakland) thanks to a ridiculous 0.462 WHIP. Last time out, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning. He exited after allowing just one hit and posting 12 K's. Having a pitcher of that caliber is enough for my endorsement here, but when you back it up w/ the top offense in the game, it becomes a no-brainer. The Angels lead MLB in team batting average (.291), home runs (26) and OPS (.825). They destroyed the Royals over the weekend and have won seven in a row overall. Also, take note that Price left his last start early (after allowing four runs in the 1st inning) due to numbness in his pitching hand. That is the only game Boston has lost since Opening Day. 8* LA Angels

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): I'm not exactly "high" on the A's coming into the year, but that didn't stop me from taking (and cashing) them yday in what ended up being a relatively easy 8-1 win. Starter Daniel Mengden hadn't pitched well previously, but I said he would Monday night and sure enough he carried a shutout into the ninth inning. Of course, a large part of that endoresement had to do w/ who Mengden and the A's were facing, a lowly White Sox club that I'm expecting even less from in 2018. In only 13 games played this year, Chicago has already given up 71 runs. That's an average of over 5.0 per game, which obviously won't win you many ballgames. It's a similar read for tonight as I believe this series is one of the few all year that I'll be heavy on Oakland.

Maybe it was the long layoff, but the White Sox appeared rusty Monday. Thanks to mother nature, they hadn't taken the field since Thursday and it showed, particularly in the field as they committed four errors. It was bad enough that they couldn't solve Mengden, a pitcher that came in sporting some pretty bleak numbers and was 0-10 all-time (in 13 starts) here at the O.co Coliseum. They had almost as many errors (4) as they did hits (6) in the game as the offensive numbers remain pretty sad. Not only have the White Sox scored only three runs total in the last three games, they've been held to two or fewer six times already. The bullpen is pretty bad too w/ a 5.97 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. This puts a lot of pressure on tonight's starter Miguel Gonzalez, who has been bad in both starts so far this season (8.68 ERA, 2.144 WHIP) and never beaten the A's in five career tries (0-3, 4.11 ERA). Gonzalez has given up three home runs already this season.

Tonight marks the first time Oakland is coming off B2B wins. It's also going to be a unique atmosphere in the Coliseum as there will actually be people in the stands! Thanks to a giveaway where fans can attend for free, the A's are expecting their biggest house of the season tonight and have even opened the bleachers. This was done in conjuction w/ the 50th anniversary of the team moving to Oakland. Speaking of the past, the team has called up Trevor Cahill to start Tuesday's game. Cahill pitched here in Oakland from 2009-11 before being moved and was an All-Star in 2010. He made two starts for Triple-A Nashville and given what we saw Mengden do last night, this is a great spot for him. The White Sox are very bad and their record as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range is 18-46 the L3 seasons. 8* Oakland

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Not much is expected from either of these two clubs in 2018, but neither is off a loss coming into today's series opener as the White Sox were rained out Sunday and the A's won. Chicago is off to a 4-8 start, playing fewer games than most due to Mother Nature. With the second fewest number of games played to this point (Twins have played only 11), the fact that the White Sox have given up 63 runs looks even worse, especially when you compare it to a team like the Red Sox, who have played in 15 games, yet given up only 47 runs. Now Oakland is near the bottom of the league in the number of total runs allowed, but on a per game basis, they're actually giving up the same number as Chicago (5.3). But they're scoring more and I like them at home. 

Reynaldo Lopez has a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP through two starts, yet nothing to show for it (0-2 TSR). Of course, pitching for the White Sox, that only "comes w/ the territory." Now, Lopez was supposed to pitch each of the L3 days, but each time the weather would not cooperate. In fact, the White Sox were only able to get in one game over the weekend at Minnesota and in it, they were shutout (4-0). So Lopez will be taking the hill here on a lengthy eight days' rest, which almost might be TOO much. Impressive as he's been, Lopez did issue five walks in his last start, which is obviously concerning. So too is the White Sox lack of offense. Not only were they shut out in their last game, they managed only three hits. In the last six games, they've not had more than nine hits and have scored just 12 runs total (being shut out twice). 

For Oakland, this will be Daniel Mengden's fourth start of the season and the team is hoping for something similar to what they got yesterday from Sean Manaea in Seattle. Manaea pitched seven innings yesterday, giving up only one run (on a solo HR) on two hits as the A's beat the Mariners 2-1. Thanks to Manaea, the team's bullpen should be ready to go, if needed here. Mengden has somewhat incredibly never won at home in 13 tries, going 0-10. Tonight's game marks as good a shot as any at ending that embarrassing streak. Oakland took five of six from the White Sox last season and this is the team's return home after an eight-game trip along the West Coast. While the A's have yet to post B2B wins this season, I can't see a bad White Sox team that hasn't played much baseball of late coming in and taking this one. 8* Oakland

8* Run Line Washington (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. This is an early season revenge spot for the Nats, who were swept at home by the Mets earlier this month. That has set the tone for the National League East in the early going w/ NY racing out to a red-hot 12-2 start (NL's best record) including a perfect 6-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nats (division favorite coming into the season) are languishing behind at 7-9, having just dropped three of four at home to the Rockies (were big ML favorites in every game). Tonight marks the 1st time all season that Washington is an underdog on the ML, which opens up an opportunity w/ the run line and I don't see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this game. 

1st year Mets' skipper Mickey Callaway stepped into a great situation w/ this Mets team. The former Indians' pitching coach inherited a great staff that was not healthy virtually all of 2017. The rotation is at full strength right now though and the results speak for themselves. Leading the way has been ace Jacob deGrom, who has a 3-0 team start record to go along w/ a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP. Now, those numbers aren't exactly out of this world. In fact, he gave up four runs in his last start, which came against lowly Miami. He's also yet to make it past the six inning mark. deGrom is 6-4 in 13 career starts vs. Washington, last facing them in September. He did post an 11-0 KW ratio, but still lost the game. Something worth noting here, based on how we're playing this one, is that both Mets victories in the last series came by exactly one run. 

Meanwhile, Washington has blown a lead in five of its nine losses this season. They are just 1-4 in one-run games and their last two losses have come by that exact margin. Yesterday, they lost on a two-out HR hit by Colorado's Ian Desmond (former teammate!) in the top of the ninth. That happened at approximately the same time the Mets were winning in their final at-bat (on a walkoff HR). So there's been a lot of good fortune going the Mets' way and bad fortune going the Nats' way in these disparate starts to the season. Making his season debut tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson. He hasn't pitched in an official game since his final start w/ Baltimore last season. As much of an "uphill climb" as it seems to be taking on deGrom, I can't help but love this price on an underachieving Nationals team that's due to start playing better. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): A couple things right off the bat. One, yes, I'm well aware how "ugly" of a start it has been to the season for the host Rays (who are now 3-11 after losing again yday). Two, I'm also aware of the pitching change here as it will now be Ryan Yarbrough getting the starting nod. It probably won't be a long outing for Yarbrough though as he's primarily worked as a long reliever in his big league career. Sunday actually marks his first career start. In many ways, Yarbrough being called upon here is emblematic of the Rays start to the season. Their starting rotation is in tatters w/ only three healthy arms available. That has left manager Kevin Cash to go with "bullpen" days where it's a committee-like approach and the actual starter is expected not to go deep into the game. 

The thing is that these "bullpen days" have typically produced better results than have the actual starting pitchers. The team's three healthy starters - Chris Archer, Blake Snell and Jake Faria - have combined for a 6.00 ERA this season. In the team's other games, Rays' pitching has produced a collective 1.15 ERA. Archer lasted only four innings yday in a 9-4 loss. While starting pitching will always be an important "cog" in MLB handicapping, sometimes it's still about "playing the teams" and that's what I'm doing here as I'm more concerned w/ how the Rays are looking to avoid a sweep at home. Note that while the team is an AL-worst 3-11 thus far, seven of those losses have been by one run. I think the hosts are "due" for one on Sunday. 

The Phillies have won five in a row and are three games over .500 for the first time in almost two years. They've outscored opponents almost 2:1 during the five-game run (27-14), but I remain leery of a team that just picked up its second road win of the year yday. Phillies hitters are batting a collective .188 so far away from home. I also don't know how much I'd trust starter Blake Lively in this spot, seeing as he's facing an American League lineup and just allowed five runs his last time out to a bad Cincinnati team that was sending the pitcher up to bat. I guess what I'm saying is that you can "color me skeptical" of the Phillies right now and I just can't see them pulling off a sweep on the road at this point. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Brewers/Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match of a three-game set here at Citi Field where the home team took the series opener (I was on 'em) only for the Brew Crew to come back and win yday by a 5-1 count. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, the Mets in particular, as they lead the NL East w/ an 11-2 mark and have allowed a NL-low 41 runs. Milwaukee is 8-7, but has actually been outscored and has gone a somewhat fortunate 5-1 in one run games. For today's finale, I'm looking at the total as we should anticipate a low-scoring game w/ Noah Syndergaard pitching for the home team. The way this game is priced, you would expect the Mets to win easily, which means we likely won't have to play the bottom of the ninth either. That's always a key for the Under and the kicker is that I like the number. Take the Under. 

This will already be Syndergaard's fourth time through the rotation. So far, the team is a perfect 3-0 when he starts and you could argue that he really hasn't even been at his best yet. Last time out was his 1st quality start of 2018 as he allowed just two runs - one earned - on five hits in six innings of work. That was after going only four innings in his previous start. In his season debut, he did give up four runs, but also struck out 10 w/ zero walks. I expect a strong outing from Syndergaard this afternoon considering he's 2-0 all-time vs. Milwaukee w/ a 0.69 ERA. As we've seen throughout baseball, colder temperatures are helping the pitchers. It's expected to be cold (41 degrees) w/ the win blowing in during this game. 

Milwaukee's starting pitching is not as strong as the Mets in practice or on paper, but yday saw Chase Anderson start w/ 4 2/3 no-hit innings and become the first Brewers starter all year to make it into the seventh inning. That provided a huge respite for an overworked bullpen. Today, its Jhoulys Chacin starting and like Syndergaard, this will be his fourth start of the young season. Despite having a 2-1 TSR, Chacin's numbers are not that great, but the situation today is favorable to the pitchers and the Mets are only batting .227 in their last seven games anyway. I don't think the Mets will score many runs today, but with their pitching staff holding opposing batters to a .212 average for the season, they won't have to. Syndergaard should be dominant and again, hopefully we don't play the bottom of the ninth as avoiding those final three outs can often be the difference between an Under and an Over. 10* Under Brewers/Mets

10* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): What is in the water in the National League West. The D'backs beat the Dodgers again last night, 8-7, thus improving to 4-0 in the season series. Los Angeles may have gone to the World Series last year, including a quick three-game sweep of Arizona in the LDS. However, they have now lost TEN straight times to their division rival in the regular seasons! Arizona is off to its best start in franchise history (now 10-3), but I expect them to start regressing quickly, even if the numbers don't necessarily bear that out. They failed to avenge the earlier season sweep yday, but after a late rally ultimately fell short, I believe the Dodgers will do so today. Take them in what is a big-time spot.

Last night saw Arizona jump all over LA starter Kenta Maeda, scoring five times in 2 2/3 innings. It was 7-2 before you knew it and they held on for an 8-7 win, their fourth victory of the season by exactly one run. Allowing the opponent to score first has been a major problem for the Dodgers so far this season as they are 0-7 when that happens. So starting strong tonight is of the utmost importance. They'll hand the baseball to Rich Hill, who thus far has only faced the Giants twice. He was far more impressive the first time around, which is not that surprising, and the good news is that start came at home. He allowed just five hits in six scoreless innings. While his career record vs. Arizona is not that great, Hill has limited their hitters to just a .238 average. I realize that the D'backs have eaten up southpaw starters thus far (6-0 against them!), but I do not see that continuing here. 

Hill will be opposed here by Taijuan Walker, who pitched well in both visits to Chavez Ravine last season. But the LA native wasn't nearly as sharp when he faced them earlier this month at Chase Field as he surrendered three runs in five innings of work. Just like Hill struggled more in the second go around against the Giants, I expect the same here from Walker against the Dodgers. It does appear as if the home team is picking things up at the plate as they've now scored a total of 13 times in the last two games. It is obviously very difficult to continue beating the same opponent time after time, especially if it's a division rival. The fact that Arizona has now beaten the Dodgers 10 straight times in the regular season makes little sense to me and I have to believe the home team is ready to claim its revenge here tonight. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Enough is enough, Cubs! The team lost again Friday, 4-0 to Atlanta, dropping a game below .500. It was already the third time this season that they have been shutout and the fifth game they were held to one run or fewer. Yu Darvish's Wrigley debut was spoiled yday as the game basically turned on one inning, the fifth, when a Darvish balk opened the door for the Braves' only scoring of the game. Three of the four runs came via one swing of the bat, a Preston Tucker home run. That one inning was more than enough as the Cubs were three-hit by Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez. Fortunately though, the Braves have not performed well when coming off a shutout win. They are just 3-12 in that role the L3 seasons and lost once earlier this year in that situation, getting shutout themselves. 

I like what I saw from Jose Quintana his last time out and thus will go w/ him today. The Cubs starter tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball on Sunday, striking out six, as the team beat Milwaukee 3-0. That was a dramatic improvement from his first start where Quintana allowed six runs. Today marks his 1st start of the season at Wrigley. Down the stretch last year, Quintana was excellent, posting a sub-1.00 ERA his final eight starts. Yes, the team did lose both times he started in the postseason, but he was also opposing Clayton Kershaw. Quintana has won both of his career starts vs. Atlanta, who isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball either right now. Over the first seven games of this road trip, Braves hitters are batting a collective .230 and averaging just 3.4 runs per game. 

It's pretty shocking to see Atlanta at 8-5 and having outscored its opponents by 30 runs. I suspect we'll start to see them fall down the standings sooner rather than later as I can't see the bullpen continuing to perform at its current level. Starter Sean Newcomb has two starts under his belt in 2018 and they've gone similar to his counterpart Quintana as he struggled the first time out before tossing six scoreless innings the last time we saw him (in Coors Field, no less). But he has struggled in his only two career starts vs. Chicago, losing them both while posting a 6.10 ERA. Something else to keep in mind is thatt he Cubs have outscored the opposition by nine runs this season despite having a 6-7 record. They'll get back on track this afternoon. 8* Chi Cubs

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This weekend is all about revenge for Dodger Blue as they were swept out in Arizona roughly 10 days ago. Those three games are largely responsible for the discrepancy in the standings between these two NL West rivals as the D'backs are sitting pretty atop the division w/ a 9-3 record while LA is languishing at 4-7. But I expect things to go a whole lot differently here at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers didn't do a whole lot of scoring in that first go-around w/ Arizona, getting held to 1 and 0 runs in two of the losses. Already, six of the Dodgers' games this season have been shutouts - one way or the other - and they are 3-3 in those games. Arizona has been propped up by its pitching thus far, but it's tough to like them here w/ the revenge angle plus the fact this is their third stop of the current road trip.

While there's been an irregular number of shutouts so far in Dodgers' games, Wednesday's loss to the A's was the exception to that rule. They fell 16-6, giving up more runs than they had in the previous four games combined. But if Kenta Maeda's 1st start of '18 was any indication, then they can count on not needing to put up many runs tonight in order to achieve victory. Two weeks ago, Maeda blanked the Giants over five innings, striking out 10 batters. He also added one more scoreless inning, in relief, on April 7th after his second start (scheduled for the previous day) was rained out. Mother nature has not really cooperated for the Dodgers, who have already had four days off. Thus, they've failed to get into any kind of rhythm. Yet, I suspect this series will carry a ton of importance in the clubhouse. 

Arizona counters w/ Zack Greinke, who you might think would be in good spot due to his time spent pitching in a Dodgers' uniform. However, you would be incorrect. In three starts in an Arizona uniform at Dodger Stadium, Greinke has a 7.56 ERA. He also isn't exactly off to the best start here in '18. He does have a 14-0 KW ratio, but also allowed five runs in five innings his last time out and has surrendered a home run in both starts. Arizona has won all four of its series thus far, but I see that streak coming to an end this weekend. They certainly won't sweep the Dodgers a second straight time. I love the home team in this spot. 10* LA Dodgers

8* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Halos are garnering a lot of attention right now, both for the overall team performance (off to an 11-3 start!) and for the individual accomplishments of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. The team, which won its fifth straight game yday, is not only sporting the nice record, but also a MLB-best +45 run differential. They easily beat the Royals on Thursday, 7-1, led by Ohtani's three-run triple. Mike Trout also homered. I expect another easy win tonight. The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum right now and should remain there for the balance of this season. I've written about this before, but there's just no offense here and the strength of the club the past few seasons - the bullpen - has been dismantled. I had KC regressing in a major way in 2018 and it looks as if I was correct. 

For the second straight game, the Angels will send a pitcher making his 2018 debut to the mound. Last night, it was Nick Tropeano, who was coming off Tommy John surgery and making his first big-league start in almost TWO years. All he did was throw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Tonight, it will be Andrew Heaney, already the seventh starter used (in just 15 games!) by the Angels this season. Heaney should have little difficulty w/ a Royals lineup that has scored an AL-low 32 runs so far. Making that number look even worse is the fact that 10 of those 32 runs came in one game. The team has yet to win a game this year in which it did not shutout its opponent (3-8 record) and they've been held to three runs or fewer nine times. Last night marked the fifth time in 11 games they scored just one run. 

While the Royals offense has been scuffling early on, the Angels' leads the league in runs scored. Tonight, LA faces Jason Hammel, who is off a strong showing at Cleveland last weekend, but ultimately it was not enough as the team fell 3-1. I don't look for a repeat of the six scoreless innings Hammel tossed on Sunday, for a number of reasons. One is that he traditionally pitches worse at home. He posted a 4.94 ERA at Kauffman Stadium last year. He also has not done well in the past against the Angels (5.30 ERA in seven starts). Something else to keep in mind is that Hammel logged career highs in number of starts and IP last season. Speaking of last season, KC was very fortunate to finish 80-82 as they were outscored by 89 runs. This year, we should find them at the bottom of the standings most of the way. 8* LA Angels 

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets are off to an absolutely blistering start as they've won eight straight and are 10-1 out of the gate. Making that record all the more impressive is that they're 6-0 on the road. We knew that, if healthy, this team had a top five rotation in all of baseball. Health, or rather lack of it, was the primary culprit in LY's ugly fall from grace that resulted in 92 losses. But this year (at least so far) has been a far different story w/ the team having given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. Clutch hitting has also helped them get off to the best start in franchise history. Today, they return home to host a Milwaukee teams whose 7-6 record is highly misleading as they have gone a totally unsustainable 5-0 in one-run games. Great price here on a vastly superior team playing at home.

The Brewers, who were quite active in the offseason, are a trendy pick to make the playoffs. I'm not as high on them. After starting the season w/ a three-game sweep of the lowly Padres, they've gone just 4-6 w/ every victory coming by exactly one run. Three times during that stretch they've been shutout. Consider that their -15 run differential is the third worst in all of the National League. Starting tonight for the Brew Crew will be Zach Davies. He did not factor into the decision his last time out, despite allowing only one run on four hits in 6 IP. That performance was a marked improvement over his first start when he surrendered seven runs in 5 2/3 IP. While unbeaten in four career starts vs. the Mets, Davies has a 4.22 ERA.

Now the Mets' historically great start has not come w/o some good fortune. They have five come from behind victories already and on Wednesday, they were able to come back after being no-hit for the first six innings. Over the L7 games, they are averaging 5.3 rpg despite a collective batting average of only .214. Still, I mentioned pitching earlier and tonight Steven Matz gets the baseball. He allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work his last time out. Unlike LY, the Mets have a fully healthy starting rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Harvey and Wheeler, which makes them a very legit threat in the Senior Circuit. The bullpen has been very good as well in the early going. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee is not a great team and I'm all over the home favorites in this one. 8* NY Mets

8* Washington (7:05 ET): After starting the season 4-0, the Nationals have dropped six of eight including another home loss yday, this one to Atlanta. They'll stay in the Nation's capital this weekend, welcoming in a Rockies team that just avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep, at home to the Padres. They won yday 6-4, but keep in mind that was only the second time in seven games they topped three runs in a game despite only playing Atlanta and San Diego during that time, all but one of the contests coming at Coors Field. I don't see Colorado's offensive woes ending here and at the same time we should see the Nats' bats start to wake up. I like the home team to win big Thursday. 

It was a 12-inning loss for the Nats yday after they'd tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. That was the second time in the last four games they lost a 12-inning affair. Despite the team's mediocre start to the season, Bryce Harper has come out of the gates swinging, posting a .316 batting average w/ six home runs and 13 runs scored. But perhaps more key to tonight's game is the fact that Gio Gonzalez is starting. Gonzalez has never lost to the Rockies, going 4-0 in five career starts. He has been sharp in the early going of 2018 as he's allowed just 2 ER in 11+ IP. He had to settle for a no-decision his last time out (vs. the Mets), but did have six more strikeouts, bringing his YTD total up to 13. Note that Rockies' hitters have struck out at least 10 times in four of the last five games.

While Washington is still favored to win the NL East this season, I expect Colorado to drop down the standings a bit after LY's Wild Card campaign. We know the hitting always dips outside of Coors Field, so considering how anemic they've been in their home park, things don't look too promising for this weekend. Chad Bettis will get the starting nod and while he's got a 2-0 TSR thus far, he's been far from dominant. He walked four batters in his first start and has only 7 K's so far. I just can't see the Nationals losing another home game and this price range seems justifiable. 8* Washington

10* St. Louis (6:40 ET): The Cardinals' lack of fortune to start the 2018 season continued yday w/ yet another one-run loss, this one coming by a 3-2 count to Milwaukee. It was their third one-run loss of the season (now 0-3 in such games), all of them coming at the hands of the Brewers. The loss dropped them to 5-7 overall. Of course, while the Redbirds may be a good team experiencing poor luck, Cincinnati is just a plain bad baseball team. They too have three one-run losses after taking another yday, 4-3 at Philadelphia. That was the Reds' fourth straight loss (were swept in Philly), dropping them to 2-9 overall. These two NL Central rivals start a series on Thursday and I like the Cards to take the series opener. In addition to being the better team, they enter w/ a slight edge having wrapped up yday's game in the afternoon while Cincy went to extra innings last night. 

Somewhat surprisingly, St. Louis struggled w/ Cincinnati last season, going only 10-9 against them. However, they have had no problem beating this particular division rival when Michael Wacha is on the bump and he'll get the baseball this evening at Great American Ballpark. In 16 career appearances vs. the Reds, 14 of them starts, Wacha is 8-1 w/ a 2.85 ERA. He faced them twice last season, both at home, and each time allowed only one run in 6 IP. He finished w/ 11 K's and just two walks. Now Wacha is off to a bit of a slow start this season and was plagued by control issues in his last start (vs. Arizona). But note the Cards still won, beating Zack Greinke, 5-3. St. Louis also swept the Reds in their final visit to Great American Ballpark last season. 

Timely hitting would likely change the Cardinals fortune in a hurry. While they're batting a collective .235 w/ 114 strikeouts, it's a .209 average w/ RISP that's really killing them. But enter Sal Romano, not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character, who starts today for the home team. Romano is now just 5-9 in his career as a starter w/ a 4.59 ERA after a pretty rocky start to this season. While the team did win his last time out, Romano didn't factor into the decision and has a 5.73 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in two starts. He has only 3 K's in those two starts, an alarmingly low number. The Reds' bullpen also remains as bad as ever. Manager Bryan Price already seems to be on the hot season as the team seems well on its way to another losing season. I'll play against them here. 10* St. Louis

10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Toronto has taken the first two games of this three-game set, holding Baltimore to just one run each time. After rolling to a 7-1 victory Monday, it was a pitcher's duel yday (2-1) w/ the Jays' Aaron Sanchez getting the better of it, even taking a no-hit bid into the eighth innings. Keep in mind though that Toronto didn't score in the first seven innings either. I like the O's to salvage a game tonight though before hitting the road for the next week. It is interesting to note three of Baltimore's four wins have come in extra innings, but they've also taken on a challenging schedule and had only two home series. I expect the offense to wake up here. 

It's not as if the O's haven't had some chances to get the job done at the plate in this series. But they have gone 2 for 16 w/ runners in scoring position. Now, most of those failed opportunities came in the first game. But, typically this has been a strong offensive club under skipper Buck Showalter. They have struggled in the past against tonight's starter Marco Estrada, who is additionally off to a strong start in 2018. But note Estrada has allowed three home runs so far, so he's susceptible there. Eventually, we're going to see that Orioles offense start to connect, trust me. 

Toronto is off to an impressive 8-4 start and keep in mind they lost their first two games. But sweeping a division rival, on the road, is hard to do. Even w/ the B2B wins, the Blue Jays still have a losing record here at Camden Yards the L3 seasons. Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman was able to rebound from a terrible first start by allowing just two runs in five innings against the Yankees last time out and the team won 7-3 as +160 ML underdogs. When analyzing the O's record so far, note that their last two series came at Houston and at the Yankees. Gausman has pitched well against this Toronto team in the past, posting a 3.12 ERA in 18 games. The Orioles have always been a good home team through the years (97-70 since the start of '16) and I just don't see them being swept here. 10* Baltimore 

8* Seattle (2:10 ET): After an embarrassing effort in the opener of this three-game set (lost 10-0!), the Mariners were able to rebound yday w/ an 8-3 win, thus squaring things up heading into today's rubber match. Now 5-4 on the young season, the M's have not won B2B games since opening the season 2-0, but I like them to do so today as the Royals team they are facing is simply one that we should expect very little from this season. Interestingly, all three KC wins this year have come via shutout (two of them 1-0!). That 10-0 win on Monday was clearly an outlier considering it is the ONLY time in the previous time in the last eight games that they have scored more than three runs! I look for Seattle to take the series in convincing fashion this afternoon.

The Royals' offensive woes have to be "music to the ears" of M's starter James Paxton, who comes in w/ an 0-2 TSR and 7.45 ERA. He's allowed 3 HR's and has a WHIP of 1.551, but the good news is that his second start was a lot better than the first. While the team still lost 4-2 to the Twins last Thursday, Paxton has seven strikeouts in five innings and allowed two runs on four hits. Felix Hernandez had little difficulty w/ this KC lineup yday and neither should Paxton today. Paxton is unbeaten in four career starts vs. KC, posting a 2.43 ERA. No Royals hitter has more than eight career AB's against him. Furthemore, KC's lineup has been weakened w/ Alex Gordon heading to the DL. 

While the Royals have surrendered zero runs in their three wins this year, they've allowed 38 in the six losses. Having southpaw Danny Duffy on the mound this afternoon figures to add to that latter number. Duffy has struggled mightily in his first two starts of '18. He actually has an identical ERA and WHIP to Paxton, but while Paxton at least showed some improvement from the first start to the next, Duffy most certainly did not. Duffy has allowed eight runs on 10 hits thus far, three of them coming via the home run ball. He could not hold a four-run lead in his first start and then allowed three runs in the first inning in his second. The Royals' bullpen is nowhere close to as good as it once was, so little relief can be offered there. We've already talked about the hitting woes and the Gordon injury does them no favors either. Good price to play against a bad team. 8* Seattle 

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It took 10 innings, but the Brewers won Monday's series opener here in St. Louis, by a score of 5-4. The Cardinals are now just 1-3 at home while the Brew Crew is 4-0 on the road. Of course, it was just last week when the Redbirds took two of three at Miller Park. Many have these two teams tabbed as Wild Card contenders in what is a top-heavy National League. Losing this series is certainly no death knell early in the season, but it's important for establishing dominance in the division.

Starting for Milwaukee today is Brent Suter, who is off to a rough start in 2018. Through two starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Cardinals did not face him in last week's series. But Thursday, he gave up five runs in 5 IP to the Cubs in an 8-0 loss. Suter has gone 5 IP in both starts. He is winless in his career vs. St. Louis w/ a 4.50 ERA. Something to keep in mind w/ this Milwaukee team is that of their six wins, five have come in the final at-bat. 

Starting for St. Louis here will be Carlos Martinez, who dominated the Brew Crew last week as he went 8 1/3 IP and didn't allow a run. He finished w/ 10 K's as well. Martinez has really had Milwaukee's number throughout his career, posting a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts w/ 101 K's in 91 IP. This will be his 1st home start of this year. I can't see St. Louis dropping B2B games at Busch Stadium nor can I see Milwaukee remaining perfect on the road. 8* St. Louis 

10* Houston (8:10 ET): The Twins surprised everyone last year, going from 100+ losses the previous season to a Wild Card berth. It's only predictable that they will regress some this year and they are 4-3 through seven games. They dropped the series opener w/ Houston yday, 2-0. There has been no sign of regression from the defending World Series Champs meanwhile as they have started 8-2. They've won three straight including two by shutout. I see them winning again tonight behind Dallas Keuchel. 

Keuchel has allowed five runs in 11 IP so far this year. Last time out, he had some control issues (four walks), but it didn't matter as Houston beat Baltimore 3-2. He has 21 strikeouts in 20 career IP vs. the Twins. Houston has had a lot of success in this park the last two seasons, going 4-0 including outscoring them 40-16 last year. Keep in mind the Astros have allowed just one run total in the last three games. I believe Keuchel continues that trend. 

Minnesota gives the baseball to Jake Odorizzi. He has good career marks vs. Houston, some of the best against any opponent in fact. Something to note is that the Twins are 13-23 the L3 seasons as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I don't think Odorizzi succeeds here and you can note the Twins are allowing 6.5 rpg at home while the Astros are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road. 10* Houston

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians were the top Under team in baseball and seem well on their way to doing so again in 2018 as none of their previous four games have seen more than five total runs scored. They've scored three runs or less in all of five of those games themselves. Yesterday was a 3-1 win as they managed to win the series w/ lowly Kansas City. A big reason why the Tribe are such prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central is the rest of the division itself. Personally, I don't see any of the other four teams finishing w/ a winning record. That includes the next opponent Detroit, a team coming off a sweep over another AL Central foe, the White Sox. Sweeps will not be common for this Tigers team, however, and I expect them to resume their losing ways here. 

Corey Kluber, who was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball last season, has pitched 15 innings so far and allowed just four runs. He has 14 K's and just three walks. Yet, the Indians lost both games. Both losses were by one run and obviously a lack of run support was the culprit. The offense supplied Kluber w/ just three runs total. Right now, the Indians have the lowest team batting average in the American League. Now, Kluber did allow a home run in both starts. But he should bounce back here against a team he went 3-1 against LY in five starts. 

The Tigers will give the baseball to Francisco Liriano, who is 5-6 all-time vs. Cleveland w/ a 4.19 ERA. In his first start of '18, Liriano pitched well, allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 IP, although he had only three strikeouts. But I don't expect a repeat of that even w/ the cold temperatures that will favor the respective pitchers here. It also should be pointed out that the Tigers' offense has been quite anemic so far. They've scored 1 or 0 runs in three games so far and had only two hits in a 1-0 win yday. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): We all expect the White Sox to not be any good in 2018, but it's been a real ugly start for the now 1-8 Rays, who badly need a win. Their lone win came on Opening Day and since then, it's been eight straight losses. To be fair though, so far they've only faced the Red Sox and Yankees. So today's series opener marks a rather huge drop in class. It will be a welcome one for starter Chris Archer, a good starter who has given up eight runs in just 11 IP so far, against two of the top offenses in baseball. Now he faces a White Sox team that has scored all of one run in its last two games and dropped five of six. As I said when I successfully played against Chicago earlier this year, it won't be too long until it's exceedingly rare that we see the Sox at these prices. 

The current losing streak is longer than any for the Rays all of last season. At no point last year did they suffer through a skid of more than five games. Now two of the last three games have been decided by exactly one run. So it's not exactly as if they're getting blown out. In fact, the team is now 0-5 in one-run games. Again though, look at who they played: two of the top four teams in the American League. They are now facing arguably the weakest AL team on paper, with their Opening Day starter on the hill. One thing to note is the fact Archer has 14 K's in 11 IP. 

Miguel Gonzalez did not have a strong 2018 debut. He allowed five runs and eight hits in a loss to the Blue Jays, lasting only five innings. His seven wins against the Rays are the most he has versus any opponent. That said, he doesn't have much backing him up here as the last series saw the offense bat a collective .217 and the bullpen has a 7.20 ERA/1.620 WHIP so far. Note the White Sox are also coming off a sweep, here at home, at the hands of a Tigers team that is simply not very good. They've played a far weaker schedule to this point than has Tampa Bay. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (8:05 ET): The Mets are off to a hot start as their 6-1 record is the best in the National League. They've won four in a row and tonight go for the sweep of the Nationals, in D.C. I don't see it happening, despite the fact the Nats have now dropped four in a row themselves. The home team was in position to win yday, leading by one run after both the fifth and sixth innings. But the Mets rallied for two in the top of the seventh and that was the gane. That being said, I just can't see Washington being swept at home this weekend. They'll salvage the finale tonight on ESPN. 

Tanner Roark will get the baseball for the Nats Sunday night, coming off a very strong 1st outing of 2018 where he allowed just one run and four hits in 7 IP. He had six strikeouts against just one walk as it wound up being an 8-1 win over Atlanta. Eight outs were via ground ball while two-thirds of Roark's pitches went for strikes. I view this as a favorable matchup as the Mets aren't really hitting all that well despite averaging almost 5.0 runs per game. Roark has pitched quite well against the Mets in the past, going 7-2 in 17 starts w/ a 2.76 ERA.

The Mets have not swept the Nats in D.C. in three years. They counter Roark w/ Matt Harvey, himself coming off a very strong 1st start of '18. Harvey allowed no runs and just one hit in five innings of work as the Mets beat the Phils 2-0 Tuesday. He's working on one less days' rest than is Roark. Harvey has also struggled mightily in his career vs. the Nationals, going 3-6 over 14 starts. The last two years have been particularly bad as he's 0-3 w/ a 7.25 ERA in five tries. Are the Mets in line for a resurgent 2018? Probably. But they'll come up short tonight. 8* Washington

8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): We've got a rubber match in the Gateway City w/ the D'backs and Cards having split the first two games this weekend. Yesterday's game went the way of the Redbirds, thus snapping Arizona's four-game win streak. It was just the second loss all year for the D'backs, who were a playoff team last year (Wild Card), making a big jump from 2016. Despite said fast start, I expect them to regress a bit in 2018. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a team I've tabbed for the postseason as they look to be the second best team in the NL Central (behind the Cubs). They are now 4-4 on the season w/ this series being their first at home. 

It was the coldest temperature ever at Busch Stadium yesterday, which certainly had an effect on both teams, but more likely the visitors (who come from a warm-weather environment). Theoretically, the cold weather should aid the pitchers as well. But not Jose Martinez, who drove in all but one of St. Louis' runs. He homered, which was the difference as Arizona's Zack Greinke was pretty dominant after that. Today, the Cards get to face Taijuan Walker instead. He is nowhere near as good and in his first start, surrendered three runs in five innings. He gave up eight hits and walked two against just four strikeouts. Arizona did come from behind to win the game, 8-7, in 15 innings. Yet, the credit clearly doesn't go to Walker for that one. 

St. Louis counters w/ Luke Weaver, who overcame three walks in his first start to allow just one run on five hits as the team beat the Mets, 5-1. Neither side has hit well in this series, so I expect it to be low-scoring. But give the edge to the home team w/ the cold temperatures and the fact they have the hot bat (Martinez). It's also based on my respective forecasts for the two clubs this season. Note that despite the hot start, Arizona has scored just three runs in each of the last three games and three or fewer in four of the last six games. 8* St. Louis

10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins have opened 4-2, outscoring foes by 15 runs. On Thursday, they won their home opener, beating the Mariners by a score of 4-2. Now this is a team I expect to regress some this year after they jumped from 100+ losses in '16 to a stunning Wild Card berth in '17. However, they are the better team compared to Seattle, who also isn't likely to win as many games this season as LY's already subpar record 78-84 record was "propped up" by a league-best 26-15 record in one run games. They've lost the last two games, the aforementioned one to the Twins on Thursday plus an ugly 10-1 loss to the sorry Giants.

Jose Berrios pitches today for Minnesota. Hopefully, he pitches somewhat like he did in his first outing when he went the distance, delivering a complete game, three-hit shutout. Berrios had six strikeouts and issued just one walk and at one point retired 17 consecutive hitters. Something else to note here is the expected cold temperatures, something that affected Seattle Thursday and will likely be a factor again today. The Twins are certainly more used to those conditions. I don't expect the cold to affect the Twins' hitters, who are 2nd in the league in home runs w/ 12. This was a lineup that had three players w/ 27+ hitters a year ago. Coming into today, the Twins have scored twice as many runs as they have allowed.

Seattle has been outscored by over a full run per game so far. Catcher Mike Zunino is still out of the lineup. Mike Leake will get the baseball and he's pitched well since coming over from St. Louis midseason last year. He allowed just two runs on five hits against Cleveland in his 2018 debut and the M's won 5-4 as +125 ML underdogs. He did allow one home run and issue three walks. He will struggle w/ this Twins lineup. Seattle has not been good as a road underdog, going 16-35 in the +125 to +175 range. I like the Twins in this spot. 10* Minnesota

8* Colorado (4:10 ET): After playing seven in a row on the road (all against fellow NL West teams), the Rockies finally get to play their home opener on Friday. Since opening the season w/ B2B losses to the D'backs, they've won four of five as they took three of four from San Diego. Atlanta also comes in off B2B wins, theirs far more surprising, as they beat the Nationals. The Braves have yet to play on the road in 2018 and I don't like their chances here. Mother nature may or may not cooperate w/ us today, but I favor the Rockies by large margin here at Coors Field. 

Atlanta, believe it not, has a MLB best +21 run differential through six games. That's tied w/ Houston. But unlike the defending World Series Champs, I don't think anyone believes this will persist. They do already have a 15-2 and 13-6 win to their credit and are averaging 8.0 rpg. Again, I'm looking for all these numbers to start coming down. Starting today will be Brandon McCarthy. His 1st start of '18 went well enough, but he was inefficient in needing 97 pitches to get through just 5 1/3 innings (three walks). McCarthy has not pitched particularly well in his career vs. Colorado (5.40 ERA in 10 games), particularly here at Coors Field where he's 0-2 w/ a 7.94 ERA in four appearances. In 17 career innings pitched here in Denver, he's allowed 23 hits, four home runs, and seven walks.

The Rockies counter w/ German Marquez, who allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work in his first start of the year. He has a 7-3 career mark here at Coors. That first start of the year came at another "pitcher unfriendly" environment (Chase Field), so kudos to him. Yes, the Rockies coming off a walk-off win yday while the Braves had the day off is a slight disadvantage. But despite the Braves' early returns, Colorado remains the much stronger team on paper, with a stronger everyday lineup and a stronger bullpen. The Rockies were obviously a strong home team last year and I expect them to really want to win this home opener. 8* Colorado

10* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals were a nice winner for me last night as they shut out the Brewers (in Milwaukee), 6-0. After dropping the first two games of the season (both in New York), the Redbirds have now won three of four and turn their attention to the home opener Thursday night. As I said in yday's analysis, this Cards team shapes up to be (at worst) a Wild Card contender in what is a very "top-heavy" National League this season. A Wild Card is what Arizona was last season (finished 93-69) and they've gotten off to a hot 5-1 start in 2018 after just sweeping the Dodgers. But regression is what I see from this D'backs club this season and tonight marks their 1st road game. I'll play against them.

Both teams won in shutout fashion Wednesday as Arizona blanked the Dodgers 3-0 w/ starter Patrick Corbin striking out a career-best 12 batters and allowing just one hit over 7 1/3 innings pitched. The D'backs were a really strong home team last year as well, going 52-29 at Chase Field, but only 41-40 on the road. So we really shouldn't be surprised at the fast start to this season, especially considering they were up against familiar opponents (two NL West rivals). But now let's see how they do on the road. I'm not banking on starter Robbie Ray pitching anywhere near as well as Corbin did last night. Ray gave up three home runs in his 1st start of the year and seven runs total (in just 5 IP), yet the D'backs hitters showed up to support him and the bullpen was able to hold on for a 9-8 win. Obviously, Ray won't continue to flourish in the win column if he continues to pitch the way he did last Friday. Also, he's never beaten the Cardinals in three tries, posting a poor 6.52 ERA. The last time he pitched here at Busch Stadium was a scary situation as he took a line drive off the head.

Opposing Ray here will be Adam Wainwright, making his 2018 debut and looking to bounce back from the worst season of his career. But Wainwright can pitch w/ the confidence of knowing he has a rested bullpen behind him as last night's starter Carlos Martinez pitched into the ninth inning. Wainwright is also 8-4 all-time vs. Arizona w/ a 2.72 ERA. I'm willing to call his 2017 an "aberration" and look for the proverbial bounce back. The move to give the baseball to Wainwright is a change as Michael Wacha was originally set to start here. Don't discount that throwing the Arizona hitters off a bit. 10* St. Louis

8* Run Line Detroit (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. Coming into Thursday, Detroit is just 1-4. Their game yday, scheduled vs. Kansas City, was rained out. That gives them somewhat of an advantage coming into today's game in Chicago. The White Sox were money line favorites all of 15 times last season, so it's definitely rare to see the minus next to their name. It's even rarer to be able to go against them w/ an additional +1.5 runs in "our back pocket." For the record, they were ML favorites once this year (really, even money) and did beat the Royals in that spot. While the Tigers were off, the White Sox did play yday, winning as +190 underdogs in Toronto, thus avoiding a sweep. Today marks their home opener. 

In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play the Tigers yesterday vs. KC. I'm well aware that their season projection is far from rosy, but they've been hit by some poor luck in the early going here in 2018. Consider that they've allowed a total of three runs the last two games, yet still lost twice (by 1-0 scores)! Today will be their first road game and they'll be handing the baseball to Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman did allow four runs in his first start, on six hits, lasting six innings. But he also had eight strikeouts against just one walk. That game wound up being yet another tough loss for the Tigers as they lost 13-10 to Pittsburgh. They had thought they'd won in walkoff fashion, but after a review, what would have been the GW run was overturned as the runner was ruled out at the plate. Zimmerman is looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor 2017 and this is a good spot for him. 

Detroit has already had three games postponed due to weather and there's a chance this one could fall prey to the same fate. Weather conditions are not expected to be favorable, whether or not the game is played. But with those conditions, hitters are likely to be at a disadvantage. Pitchers are already "ahead" of the hitters to begin with this time of year, so this one is bound to be low-scoring. That right there lends itself to taking the 1.5 runs as scoring will be at a premium. Furthermore, two of the White Sox three wins this season have come by exactly one run. Starting today for Chicago will be James Shields, who like Zimmerman allowed four runs in six innings in his first start. But while Shields was fortunate enough to get the win (unlike Zimmerman), he had zero strikeouts. That's a far cry from the eight we saw from Zimmerman. I think the chance to go against the White Sox on the run line is too good to pass up. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): This MLB season appears to be as "top heavy" as I've ever seen as virtually all prognosticators are going w/ the same exact six division winners while there's a real dearth of Wild Card contenders. Over in the National League, we know the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers are all going to be good. But after that, it's anybody's guess. Two teams that are at least "trying" in 2018 are the Cardinals and Brewers. Both are fancying themselves as WC contenders, if not challengers to the Cubs in the Central Division. The Brew Crew made a lot of high-profile additions in the offseason, garnering plenty of respect in the marketplace. But I feel they are overrated coming into the year. Now they have opened 4-1 w/ a win yday, but that also includes a sweep of the sorry Padres. 

St. Louis is now 2-3. They opened their season by dropping two of three to the Mets, in Queens. They came to Milwaukee and took Monday's series opener, pretty convincingly in fact (won 8-4), but then lost again yday by one run. However, for the first time in this series and only second time all year, the Redbirds find themselves favored on the money line here. They won the previous occasion (beat the Mets 5-1) and should do the same again here. Last night was an absolutely BRUTAL loss as the Cards allowed the Brewers to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, including B2B home runs to end the game. So they were well in position to win for a third straight time, only to fall short. It's funny because St. Louis actually opened the game w/ B2B HR's. According to MLB.com, it was the only game in history to both open and end w/ back to back home runs. Interesting! 

The two starting pitchers for tonight are both coming off rough first outings in 2018. Carlos Martinez is someone I actually played against on Opening Day (vs. Noah Syndergaard and the Mets) and he made it easy for me by issuing six walks in just 4 1/3 IP (Cards lost 9-4). But he's had Milwaukee's number through the years, posting a 2.18 ERA in 23 career appearances against them. He's pitched particularly well here at Miller Park as well. Brewers' starter Jhoulys Chacin also pitched poorly in his first start of the season, but the difference is his team was still able to come away w/ the victory. Chacin lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up seven hits (two home runs), yet the Brewers still beat San Diego 8-6 on Friday. That is one of three late inning rallies by the team, last night being the latest. But Chacin has fared terribly against St. Louis in his career, going winless (0-5) in six career starts w/ a 6.10 ERA. The fact that he has a 6-0 team start record dating back to the start of September last year is highly misleading as San Diego didn't exactly let him go for no reason. I view the Cards as the better team here and Chacin and the Brew Crew were fortunate to win his first start, and last night for that matter, as well. 10* St. Louis

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels lost for the 12th straight time to the Indians last night and did so in shutout fashion, 6-0, in what was their home opener. Talk about a disappointment. Cleveland is obviously one of the favorites in the AL this season, but the Halos are trying to fancy themselves as being part of that discussion as well. Many, myself included, feel this club is on the short list for a Wild Card spot. Coming off three straight wins and scoring 15 runs in the last two, last night was definitely NOT what they were looking for. Angels' pitching gave up three home runs to the Indians, one of them an inside-the-park job. But a key difference between that game and this one is that they are favored on the money line here. I feel it's justified and will call for the Halos to end their losing streak to Cleveland at long last. 

This will be the Indians' fifth straight road game (all out West) to open the year. They've alternated losses and wins to this point, dropping two of three in Seattle before this series. Josh Tomlin is the starter tonight for the 1st time in '18. It comes on eight days' rest as he last worked in the Spring all the way back on March 25th. Despite one of the lowest walk rates in the entire league last season, Tomlin finished just 10-9 w/ a 4.98 ERA. He probably won't be benefiting from an inside-the-park job again tonight and note Cleveland also scored an unearned run last night as well. Through four games, the Indians' lineup is batting a collective .191. The fact that they are averaging 4.2 runs per game seems somewhat fortuitous. 

The Angels' 4 and 5 hitters (Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun) have gone a combined 1 for their last 27 at the plate. That has to change considering they are hitting behind Mike Trout and it will change (for the better). Andrelton Simmons is picking up the slack w/ three multi-hit games though and is 9 for his last 20. Also, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani will be in the lineup (as a DH) after being given the day off Monday (he pitched Sunday). Garrett Richards will get the baseball, certainly hoping for better results than what he delivered in the season opener. He was handed a four-run lead in Oakland, but could not hold it. His team start record is only 4-9 going back to the start of last season. But he's a better pitcher than that record shows and I see him and the Halos picking up a big win (on national TV) tonight. 10* LA Angels

8* Toronto (7:07 ET): The Blue Jays had, somewhat surprisingly, dropped five of six at home to the White Sox the previous two seasons. For much of yday's game, they appeared on their way to another loss. They managed only four hits for the game, but one of those was a Russell Martin two-run HR that gave them the lead and win. The Jays have now won three straight going back to the series w/ the Yankees. This is a team that I've tabbed to improve in 2018 after suffering through B2B losing campaigns. I certainly give them a shot at the Wild Card. Pitching has been a strength through this three-game run, allowing just 15 hits total. Tonight, I envision J.A. Happ getting the job done against a poor White Sox team that should not put up much resistance. 

Chicago projects to be the worst team in the American League this season. They opened 2-0, but those wins came at home against Kansas City, another team whose outlook is hardly rosy. With just three games under their belt, they're still not through the starting rotation. Miguel Gonzalez makes his 1st start of the season tonight. He's no stranger to facing Toronto as he has a lifetime 3.63 ERA in 15 starts against them (7-4 record). But coming off a subpar 2017 (8-13, 4.62 ERA), I'm not expecting much here as he also had a bad Spring (5.40 ERA in four starts). The White Sox have not been a good road team these last three seasons (63-102 overall) and given the current state of the roster, I see that record only getting worse, not better. They are 18-44 in the +125 to +175 range (on the road) during that time. 

Happ beat Chicago twice last year, posting a 2.63 ERA. He started Opening Day, losing to the Yankees, but by no means did he pitch poorly. He allowed only four hits to the Yankees, but gave up three runs (two earned). One of those four hits was a home run and that is what cost him. He finished w/ 5 K's and just 1 walk in 4 2/3 IP. Toronto hasn't been hitting much so far in 2018 (.205 team BA), but since being held to just three runs in the two losses, they've scored a total of 16 runs the L3 days. Multiple hitters homered for the first time yday, Josh Donaldson among them, and he's now homered each of his L4 games against Chicago. As stated above, I expect Happ to pitch well in this spot. Plus, you can look for the Toronto hitters to pick up where they left off in last night's rally. The Jays are the far superior side here and I'll lay the price. 8* Toronto

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5 runs. There is no denying that Cleveland is one of the favorites to win the American League this year, but they've started 1-2 and that's w/ their three top pitchers on the hill against a Seattle club that's inferior to what they'll be facing here. The Halos also have playoff aspirations for 2018 and they have to be thrilled over what they got from the highly touted Shohei Ohtani on Sunday in a 7-4 win over Oakland. They took three of four from the A's and now it's time for the home opener on Monday. I can't see the Angels doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Tonight's starter JC Ramirez may not have the "pomp and circumstance" of an Ohtani, but he was an 11-game winner last year. Ramirez is being charged w/ ending a puzzling 11-game slide against the Indians. Rarely, whether you're talking division rivals or not, do you see one team lose to another 11 consecutive times. It was an 0-6 mark last season. However, note that seven of those 11 losses have come in Cleveland. This wasn't a dominant home team last year, but w/ a better all-around roster this year, I expect improved play here. Another key besides Ohtani's arrival is that perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout is surrounded with some more talent in the everyday lineup. Ohtani, a two-way player, will NOT be in the lineup tonight. However, a number of hot hitters will. The most surprising is 2B Zack Cozart, who is only filling in for the injured Ian Kinsler. Cozart is 7 for 19 so far. Andrelton Simmons is 7 for 16 ad Trout is 6 for his last 14. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland batted only .186 in the Seattle series, getting outhit every game. Back to back home runs allowed in the seventh lost them the game yesterday. Now all three games were decided by one run, and it was the first regular season series lost by the Tribe since early August of last year. (They went unbeaten in their final 18 series LY, winning 15 and tying three, before bowing out to the Yankees in the ALDS). But as easy as it should be for them to win the AL Central for a third straight season, I don't think the Indians are going to win as many games in 2018 (compared to '17). Mike Clevinger will start for them tonight. He had a 14-7 TSR last season (making him the 2nd most profitable starter in the rotation) and that included a 2-0 mark vs. the Angels. But, one of those starts saw him get touched up for six runs in 4 1/3 IP. The Angels HAVE to end this streak sooner than later, right? 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (1:10 ET): After playing a doubleheader on Sunday (swept the Tigers), you might think that the Pirates are at a bit of a disadvantage Monday. But they are returning home where they'll now play under "NL rules" (i.e. no DH) against an American League team. It's early enough in the season where I don't view fatigue from "playing two" the previous day to be considered any real factor. Plus, the reason for yday's doubleheader was a rainout Saturday, so the Bucs have already had a day off. Today, they'll welcome in a Minnesota club that I'll be looking to play AGAINST more often than not in 2018. That's because regression is only natural following last year's stunning jump from 59 (in '16) to 85 wins and a Wild Card berth. This is a good price on the 3-0 Bucs in their home opener. 

The Twins opened their season by taking two of three from Baltimore. They lost Opening Day in extra innings, but bounced back w/ convincing wins by scores of 6-2 and 7-0. Now they are 10-4 the L2 seasons following a shutout win. Sunday saw starter Jose Berrios pitch a three-hitter in his first career game. But the starting rotation is NOT the strength of this Twins team. Today, it will be Lance Lynn getting the baseball, his first start in a Minnesota uniform since coming over from St. Louis via free agency. But the Pirates are no strangers to Lynn. They've faced him 23 times and the results haven't been that good for the right-hander, who is only 7-7 (just 4 quality starts) w/ a 5.10 ERA. Remember that the Twins, an AL team, are at somewhat of a disadvantage here due to losing the DH. Lynn is used to hitting, but it's clearly a downgrade in the lineup. Minnesota was favored on the ML only 73 times last season, making them a clear overachiever that is due to regress in 2018. 

Pittsburgh will counter Lynn w/ Jameson Taillon. While Lynn is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Taillon had his own "trials and tribulations" as he fought cancer last season. Despite that, he still managed to go 8-7 in 25 starts his rookie season. He also looked sharp in his last Spring start, tossing three scoreless innings. The Twins lineup, when at full strength, is pretty formidable. But Taillon gets a break here w/ the game contested under NL rules. Now Pittsburgh took full advantage of the DH in Detroit, scoring 13 and 8 runs in two of the three games. But they also won a 1-0 game yday. They've won four straight home openers and like I said earlier, this is a good price on them. Also, the Twins are just 48-72 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Pittsburgh

10* St. Louis (1:10 ET): I played the opener of this series (won w/ the Mets), mentioning that BOTH teams are viewed as Wild Card contenders in this year's top-heavy National League (where everyone is picking the same teams to win the three divisions). I also mentioned that the Mets might be a good 'play-on' team this year as last season's disastrous and injury-filled campaign resulted in heavy money losses to the tune of -30.2 units. It would only be natural for them to have a bounce back season at the betting window. Sure enough, the Mets didn't just win Thursday's opener, they also won Saturday (teams had Friday) off and are now looking for a sweep of the Redbirds. But, at least for one day, I'm switching course as St. Louis is favored here and for good reason. 

Sunday's starting pitching matchup decidely favors the road team as Luke Weaver will get the basebal for the Cardinals. Weaver had an 8-2 team start record in '17 w/ the Cards winning all four road starts. The Mets have never faced him. Given some poor play in the field yday, Weaver best be on his 'A-Game' today. I think he will be. While his last two starts of '17 weren't good, that came on the heels of seven consecutive outings allowed 2 ER or fewer. The Cards have yet to get quality start this year, but I feel Weaver is poised to give them one. Furthermore, this is a not a team that loses three in a row very often, especially to the same opponent. The bats should get going here too as they won't be facing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom today.

When healthy, the Mets have the potential to have a top five starting rotation. But Steven Matz certainly looks to be the proverbial "weak link." He's getting the baseball today, and that's a big reason why I'm fading the home team in this spot. Matz had an awful finish to 2017 and the team won only 3 of his 13 starts, only four of which were quality ones. He had an 0-4 TSR here at Citi Field and also lost to the Cardinals at Busch Stadium after giving up five runs in only 4 1/3 IP. Over his final seven starts of last season, Matz had a 1-6 TSR w/ a 10.17 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. Needless to say, those are absolutely dreadful numbers. The Mets have not started a season 3-0 since 2012 and while they've certainly looked like the better team in the first two games of this season, I see the Cards avoiding the sweep. 10* St. Louis

8* Run Line Toronto (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. The RL turned out to be a pretty savvy wager for me yday as I had Colorado +1.5 and they lost by exactly one run after a late rally. Here, we have a Toronto team desperate for a win. They've opened the year w/ B2B losses to the Yankees, by scores of a 6-1 and 4-2. Now, a lot of team are going to lose to the Yankees this season. The Bronx Bombers are rightfully listed among the favorites to win the American League. But there's also been some "Wild Card buzz" for the Jays, who I expect to have a bounce back season after B2B losing campaigns. I've been patiently waiting to play AGAINST C.C. Sabathia and get my opportunity on Saturday. 

Sabathia had a shockingly good 2017, finishing w/ a 21-10 team start record. His ERA and WHIP (3.54 and 1.282) by no means "blew you away," but the bottom line is that if you bet on the "hefty lefty" in every start, you would have been up 12.4 units, which was among the best ROI's in all of MLB. I suspect that he'll be priced less favorably (meaning higher juice) this season and won't be anywhere as profitable though. Consider that out of Sabathia's 31 starts last season, only 13 were considered quality. He's 37 years old now. While the Yanks' first two starters - Luis Severino and Mashiro Tanaka - held the Blue Jays' bats in check, I have my reservations about Sabathia being able to do the same. Last season, he faced Toronto four times and his ERA was 6.21, which obviously isn't very good.

The Blue Jays have scored only three runs and collected seven hits so far against Yankee pitching. That obviously needs to change in order to get into the win column. For the reasons stated above, I believe it will today vs. Sabathia. I also like today's starter for Toronto, Marco Estrada. In 24 career starts vs. the Yankees, he has a 12-5 record. With the Aaron Hicks injury, there's changes to the Yankees' lineup that could adversely affect them not only at the plate, but also in the field. Estrada has been a workhorse these last two seasons, ranking just outside the top 25 in innings pitched. I expect the Toronto hitters to fare a lot better today and thus a quality start from Estrada gives the team an excellent shot at winning. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

10* Over Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Before the season even started, the Giants were dealt a severe blow when ace Madison Bumgarner was hit by a line drive, fracturing his left hand. (He'll be out six to eight weeks). Given the kind of season Bumgarner and the Giants had in 2017, that's the last thing they needed. But pitching certainly wasn't an issue on Opening Day as they stunned the Dodgers 1-0 as +250 underdogs on the money line. Given that result and the kind of run suppression Chavez Ravine is known for, taking the Over might seem like a risk. But the O/U line is low here and I expect a lot more offense Friday night. 

The Giants were - by far - MLB's biggest money losers last season at -37.2 units. That's what happens when you're routinely priced as a playoff team, but instead finish in last place. A lot of those heavy money losses came w/ Bumgarner (-14.60 units) on the bump. But Matt Moore did no wonders for the team's overall bankroll either, dropping 11.85 units in his 31 starts. Johnny Cueto will get the starting nod tonight. He was positively mediocre in 2017 w/ a 4.52 ERA, which was a dramatic rise from 2016. Cueto hardly looked dominant in the Spring, surrendering 7 ER in 15 IP. Given his age and heavy workload through the years, I think it's fair to say Cueto's best days are behind him. By the way, the Giants are also w/o their closer Mark Melancon. So I expect the bullpen to struggle as well, at least until he is able to return. 

Last night, the Dodgers faced a pitcher that has had their number in the past. Ty Blach has held them to a .212 batting average in eight career matchups. Cueto doesn't have anywhere close to those numbers when facing LA as he's 6-8 lifetime w/ a 3.44 ERA. After the top three in the batting order went a combined 0 for 11 last night, expect changes to the Dodgers lineup tonight as both Chase Utley and Joc Pederson are likely to make their first starts of the season. Clayton Kershaw had two of the team's six hits on Thursday. Skipper Dave Roberts will be giving the baseball to Alex Wood here and he may have a difficult time following Kershaw in the rotation. Wood has a 5.35 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Giants. I know these teams have a recent history of playing low-scoring games against one another, but this one sneaks Over the total! 10* Over Giants/Dodgers

8* Run Line Colorado (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. Both of last year's NL Wild Card teams are expected to regress in 2018. How could they not? Each made a huge leap last season, the D'backs going from 69 wins (in '16) to 93 and the Rockies going from 75 to 87. Year to year regression is only natural in such circumstances. Now, of course, someone had to win on Opening Day and it wound up being Arizona 8-2, just like they beat the Rockies here at Chase Field (by a score of 11-8) in LY's Wild Card Game. But for tonight, I expect a much closer affair, one that could very well have a different result. Expect the road team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. 

The strength of the Colorado pitching staff resides in the bullpen as they have fully embraced the modern trend of spending a lot of dollars in that area. Of course, a bullpen isn't much help when you fall behind early and last night saw starter Jon Gray give up three runs in the bottom of the first inning. The Rockies did pull within one run in the sixth, but then the aforementioned bullpen let them down by giving up five runs over the next two frames. Expect that group to perform better moving forward. But a lot falls on tonight's starter Tyler Anderson. Anderson did not have the greatest 2017, but perhaps his finest effort of the season came against this opponent when he allowed just one run in six innings against the D'backs w/ 10 strikeouts. 

Arizona was a pretty great home team in 2017, but the addition of a humidor (similar to what Colorado does for its home games) will drastically affect the baseballs being used here this season. Expect home run balls to drop precipitously. While maybe that presents a break for Diamondbacks' pitchers, this was an offense that feasted on the HR last year. So the changing of the baseballs may wind up having an adverse effect on the home team at Chase Field. Robbie Ray gets the starting nod Friday. Ray had himself quite the season last year as he turned in a 20-9 team start record and finished up +10.9 units. But his numbers at home weren't great (4.08 ERA, 1.346 WHIP) and he's a flyball pitcher, which can mean very inconsistent results. His best work generally came in the pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West (LA, San Fran, San Diego). In two starts made vs. the Rockies LY (both here at home), he allowed 7 runs in 12 2/3 IP. Again, look for a far different result here compared to last night. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5).

analysis soon

10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Here's a couple of popular Wild Card picks this season. Everyone is going to pick the same three division winners in the National League (Nats, Cubs, Dodgers) and really you could say the same thing for the American League (Yankees, Indians, Astros). Turning to the Senior Circuit, the Mets and Cards have as good a chance as any of earning one of the other two playoff spots. I say this knowing full well the Metropolitans are coming off a disastrous campaign in which they won only 70 games and were outscored by 128 runs. But that had more to do w/ injuries than anything else. The core of their starting rotation (which has the capability of being top five in all of baseball) was almost never fully healthy. I like them to start 2018 out on a much better foot. 

Noah Syndergaard will get the baseball on Opening Day. His 2017 was emblematic of the team's overall poor luck. Because of injury, Syndergaard started only seven games. The team won only two of them, ironically the first two of the season. He made only two starts after April. But before tearing his right lat muscle, he had posted a 1.73 ERA and phenomenal 30-0 KW ratio. Despite being winless in two career starts vs. St. Louis, his ERA against them is 2.77. I absolutely love the hire of Mickey Callaway here as the former Indians pitching coach knows what it's like to manage a top flight rotation. He's got another one here, a group that is destined for massive improvement this season. The return of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier coming in obviously strengthen the every day lineup. 

The Cardinals have actually failed to make the playoffs in B2B seasons, which is almost unheard of in the Gateway City. I think most figure them to be the most likely Wild Card team behind the three obvious division winners. That said, there are some question marks surrounding the Redbirds. They got a number of breakthrough seasons from different players last year and those may not be sustained. Carlos Martinez will start opposite Syndergaard on Opening Day, one year removed from a career-worst HR rate. He was the staff's most durable starter, but his TSR was only 17-15. Behind Martinez, I've got some concerns w/ the Cardinals' bullpen. There's a lot of turnover from LY and they appear to lack a dominant closer. This team was only 21-32 in the underdog role last season, a significant money loser. 10* NY Mets 

8* Chi Cubs (12:40 ET): It famously took more than a century (107 years to be exact) for the Cubs to finally win a World Series. So, last year's "failure" to defend the 2016 WS Championship was pretty easily forgiven by the Wrigley faithful. However, the fact is this remains a very talented ballclub, one that could easily win it all again. When you have a championship window like the Cubs have right now, one is nice, but two is certainly better. Coming into 2018 as the runaway favorite to win the NL Central and one of three clear favorites to win the entire Senior Circuit (along w/ Washington & the Dodgers), the Cubbies couldn't have asked for an easier 1st opponent. I expect them to win handily on Opening Day behind starter Jon Lester. 

Considering the length of time it took to win one World Series, those residing at the "Friendly Confines" have to somewhat envious that the Marlins have won two WS titles in just a quarter century of existence. Needless to say though, the Fish will not be adding to that number in 2018. This projects as quite possibly the worst team in all of baseball this season. The fact this team was still able to win 77 games a year ago (finished 2nd in a weak NL East) in the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez should be considered a minor miracle. But, needless to say, after saying goodbye to the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon (nice work Jeter!), the record will decline greatly. A 100-loss season is a real possibility here as oddsmakers have pegged Miami for only 63.5 wins in '18. No other NL team is expected to win fewer than 70 games. 

Surprisingly, the Cubs went only 4-3 against the Marlins last year. But sweeping them, even in Miami, is a real possibility to start '18. It's bad enough that the Marlins' roster was purged in the offseason. But even the Spring has been unkind to the club as starting catcher JT Realmuto and starting 3B Martin Prado are now out of the lineup due to injury. "It's giving us some challenges," Marlins manager Don Mattingly told The Miami Herald. "It's not how we wanted to start the season." The lineup card Mattingly turns in on Opening Day will hardly resemble a major league roster. Jose Urena gets the starting nod, but while he turned in a solid 14-win campaign last year, his strikeout rate was relatively low and his ERA was 3.82. I expect regression from the former middle reliever. It's not as if Miami's bullpen is any good either. For the Cubs, Lester may have seen a decrease in velocity LY, but he's won at least 10 games in five straight years. He's a reliable option to give the baseball to this afternoon. The Cubs also project to have a top five bullpen. 8* Chi Cubs

10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): If you're like me, then you had the feeling this World Series was destined to go the distance as we have two seemingly evenly matched ballclubs that were - generally speaking - the best in their respective leagues during the regular season. The problem for Houston, however, is that the winner-take-all Game 7 is at Chavez Ravine, which is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. The pitcher-friendly environment got a hold of the Houston bats yet again last night as they were held to just one run on six hits. It was the third time in the series that the Astros were held to two runs or fewer while collecting six or less hits. For the season, visiting teams are batting just .215 in this ballpark while scoring an average of 3.3 runs per game. Houston fans will want to lean on the fact that they were the highest scoring road team in the regular season, but the loss of the DH hurts them here w/o question. I'm calling for the Dodgers to win the 2017 World Series tonight. 

For the third consecutive game, we have a starting pitching rematch from earlier in the series. In both previous instance, the starter that lost the initial meeting would win the rematch. Or at least their team did. Game 5 was a Game 1 rematch between Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw had outdueled Keuchel in Game 1 here at Dodger Stadium, but it was a far different result in Game 5 as the Astros won a classic, 13-12 in 10 innings (scored six runs off Kershaw). Then, last night in Game 6 marked the second time Justin Verlander and Rich Hill started against each other. Verlander and Houston had won Game 2, but last night it was Hill and the Dodgers' turn, ending Verlander's run of perfection in a Houston uniform (TSR was previously perfect). This trend certainly bodes well for Yu Darvish and the Dodgers tonight in Game 7 as Game 3 saw him chased after just 1 2/3 innings (allowed 4 runs). That made for an easy win for Lance McCullers, Jr and Houston at home. But I don't see McCullers beating Darvish twice in a row, especially now that the rematch is in LA.

There's a bad trend in play here for Houston and that's the fact they are 0-6 this season when priced as a road underdog of +125 to +175. While they are 8-1 at Minute Maid Park this postseason, on the road the Astros are just 2-6. Need I remind you that the Dodgers were the best home team in the regular season and now sport a 63-25 record at Chavez Ravine (6-1 in playoffs). Darvish had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before Game 3, so I look for him to bounce back now that he's in a friendlier ballpark and doesn't have to worry about facing a designated hitter. As for McCullers, he had won just one time in the second half before Friday. It's not as if he was dominant in Game 3 either as he had more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). One final note is that the Dodgers' bullpen is in a "better place" currently compared to their Astros' counterparts. Homefield matters in Game 7 and I'll call for Dodger Blue to win its first WS since 1988! 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Astros/Dodgers (8:15 ET): Game 5 of the 2017 World Series was one for the ages as the Astros prevailed 13-12 in 10 innings to take a 3-2 series lead. Really, it was a "must win" for the American League Champs with Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary) to be played at Dodgers Stadium. In my analysis for the 1st two games of this series, I went into great detail about the "park effect" as Chavez Ravine was #1 in MLB during the regular season for visitor run suppression. While Houston was the highest scoring road team in all of baseball, they now have to adjust to not having the DH in the lineup again. Game 1 saw them held to only three hits in a 3-1 loss while Game 2 didn't see the offense wake up until late. In fact, Game 2 was a 3-1 game (in favor of LA) going into the 8th. We've got a repeat of that starting pitching matchup for Game 6 and as long as the respective bullpens can do their job and we avoid extra innings, then I see the Under cashing here.

A total of seven home runs were hit (5 by Houston) in the 25-run Game 5 Sunday night, an offense display for the ages. Already this series has seen a record number of home runs hit (22) for a Fall Classic. But I'd like to go back to Game 2 for a moment, a contest which seemed like a sure Under until the Astros were able to tie the game (at 3-3) in the top of the ninth. Even going into extra innings, the game still had a chance to stay Under if the winning team would score just one run and the hold the opponent w/o one. Instead, what we got were more runs scored in the 10th and 11th innings combined (7) than the previous nine (6)! Tough break. The extra frames essentially negated what was another masterful performance from Astros starter Justin Verlander, not to mention the one from the Dodgers' Rich Hill.

Since coming over from Detroit, Verlander has just been ridiculous for the Astros. They've won 10 straight times when he's taken the mound. He has a 1.69 ERA and 0.771 WHIP his L7 starts. He's actually gone 12 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER and the only time he allowed more than 2 ER was Game 2, but the 3 ER allowed came w/ allowing only two hits. So I'm pretty confident that Verlander can again hold up his end of the bargain. As for Hill, we're talking about a pitcher that has allowed 2 ER or fewer in eight consecutive outings (2.00 ERA, 0.972 WHIP L7 starts). He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP at home this season. In two of the games in this World Series, Houston has been held to three hits or less. The Dodgers had collected seven or fewer hits in each of the first four games of this series. Game 5 was the outlier here w/ the ridiculous offensive explosions on both sides. I expect a good ol' fashioned pitcher's duel here in Game 6. Again, visiting teams averaged only 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .226 this year at Dodgers Stadium. In the last seven games, Houston has held the Yankees and Dodgers lineups to a minuscule .198 batting average. 10* Under Astros/Dodgers

8* LA Dodgers (8:20 ET): What has been an outstanding World Series thus far is (potentially) about to get a whole lot better as we have the best pitcher from both sides set to face off in a critical Game 5. With the final two games (Game 7, if necessary) set to take place at Dodger Stadium, LA could take a HUGE step towards winning its first WS since 1988 w/ a win tonight. And they have just the pitcher to get them there, that of course being Clayton Kershaw, who is your likely NL Cy Young Award winner. Now, normally, in a rematch of two starters like this, I might side w/ the one who lost the last meeting. But as good as Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been at home, I'm not about to pass up Kershaw, particularly at this price. I've got the Dodgers going up 3-2.

Last night's win means the Dodgers still haven't dropped B2B games this postseason. They didn't break things open until the top of the ninth when they scored five runs to essentially put the game out of reach. But like Houston's late surge in Game 2, the Dodgers clearly were the better team in Game 4 as their pitchers combined for a two-hitter (both HR's). It's no secret now that the Astros' offense (which was ranked #1 in all key categories during the reg season) is in a major slump and that's a major problem when getting set to face Kershaw. Dating back to the start of the ALCS, Houston has scored two runs or fewer in 6 of its last 11 games. Kershaw held them to just one run on three hits (over 7 IP) w/ 11 K's (no walks) in Game 1, improving his impeccable TSR to 27-4 this season. The Dodgers have won the L6 times Kershaw has started (4-0 in playoffs) and he has a 1.99 ERA on the road this season.

Now Houston does have Keuchel going in an immediate revenge spot (lost to Kershaw in Game 1) and he's generally been pretty spectacular at home this year w/ a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. But, his L2 starts have seen him allow a total of seven runs in 11 2/3 IP (13 hits). He also allowed 2 HR's in Game 1. I know that was in LA, but even here at home he's an underdog on the money line, something that was also the case in both of his last two starts. Kershaw is the better of the two pitchers and LA has the "momentum" (hate that word!) off the Game 4 victory. Houston will be desperate, but the Dodgers will be better. 8* LA Dodgers

10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): Houston looks to take a commanding 3-1 World Series lead on Saturday night, but after "zigging" last night (cashed *10* GOW on the Astros), I'll "zag" here and take the Dodgers. Granted, in my Game 3 analysis, I spoke at length at how the "rules of engagement" have now changed in this series w/ it moving to Minute Maid Park. The DH is now in play, plus the Dodgers aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at Chavez Ravine where they give up fewer runs per game than any other home team in baseball. Houston has yet to lose at home this postseason, but the Dodgers have also yet to drop B2B games. So something will have to give here in Game 4 and I believe it's the former. Take the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece.

Houston had the #1 offense in baseball during the regular season, whether you're talking runs scored, team batting average, OBP or slugging. But a curious thing took place when you split their home and road numbers and that's they were a lot more prolific at the plate away from Minute Maid Park. They did get to Yu Darvish last night, but overall have not exactly been hitting the cover off the baseball dating back to the ALCS. The Dodgers will send lefty Alex Wood to the hill Sat night and he's been especially good on the road this year w/ a 7-2 record in 14 starts, a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wood's only postseason start thus far was the team's lone pre-World Series loss, Game 4 against the Cubs in the NLCS. He did give up three homers there, which is a concern, but that was a game where the wind was blowing out at Wrigley. 

Houston counters w/ Charlie Morton, who had one successful and one not-so-successful outing opposite CC Sabathia and the Yankees in the ALCS. The first time around, he gave up seven runs in only 3 2/3 IP. The second time, which was Game 7, he came up big w/ five shutout innings of two-hit ball. But Morton has yet to go more than five innings in any of his three postseason starts thus far. With the bullpen situation the way it is for both teams (very high usage rates!), I give a big edge in starting pitching here to the Dodgers w/ Wood, who has only had to start one time this postseason as opposed to the three times for Morton. Also, Wood led all of MLB in win percentage during the regular season, going 16-3. With Morton, only 10 of his 28 starts this year have been quality ones, which is a pretty low percentage when you think about it. At 1 for 12 w/ RISP the L2 games, I have to think the Dodgers are due for some more timely hitting moving forward. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (8:20 ET): The Astros "stole one" in Game 2, rallying back to win 7-6. For me, it was a crushing beat on the Under (O/U line was 7.5) as the game was 3-1 entering the eighth inning. But Houston could certainly "care less" about that considering they've now evened up the series at a game apiece and the scene now shifts back to Minute Maid Park where the "rules of engagement" change dramatically. Sure, the Astros' offensive production actually DROPS here at home. But they will regain use of the DH here, something that was absent for the first two games. Also, perhaps they "deserved" to win Wednesday as they drastically outhit the Dodgers, 14-5. LA was nowhere near as strong on the road (47-34) as they were at home (57-24) in the regular season and has only had to play three road games thus far in the playoffs, all of them coming when they held a commanding lead in the series. Houston is a perfect 7-0 at home so far this postseason! I'm on them in Game 3.

The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers, Jr tonight. McCullers was a solid wager early in the season as he started out w/ a 12-2 TSR (through June 24th), but things have certainly "gone South" ever since as he hasn't won another decision (!) in 10 starts (1-9 TSR). Granted, injuries have played a part in that too as he missed all of August due to "arm fatigue." However, there are certainly signs that he's at least close to regaining that early season form. In two ALCS appearances, McCullers allowed only one run in 10 IP. That was one start and one relief appearance and while the team lost the former, it really wasn't his fault. 

There might be a little concern w/ this Dodgers offense right now as they only had five hits in Game 2, but were fortunate that four of them were home runs. It also seems like good fortune that the team is averaging 5.3 runs per game over its last seven contests given the team batting average is .233 during that time. Granted, they have to be feeling comfortable w/ Yu Darvish set to take the mound for Game 3 as he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive starts, which dates back to the regular season. The fact that the run dates back to the regular season is key because three of those starts came against the Giants, Phillies and Padres, who are quite possibly the three worst offensive teams in all of baseball. Then there is the matter of Houston being familiar w/ him due to his time spent w/ Texas in the AL West. Darvish is just 5-5 all-time vs. the Astros (14 starts) w/ a 3.44 ERA. Conversely, the Dodgers have never seen McCullers. 10* Houston

10* Under Astros/Dodgers (8:05 ET): In my Game 1 analysis, I laid out how Houston appeared to be at a pretty severe disadvantage for the first two games (both here in LA) of this year's World Series. They came into the Fall Classic in a pretty major offensive slump as they hit a collective .187 in the ALCS and averaged only 2.9 runs per game. Dodger Stadium is one of, if not THE, unlikeliest of places for them to turn that around as this park ranked #1 in the regular season in visitor run suppression. Throw in the fact that Clayton Kershaw was pitching in the series opener for LA and I thought taking the home team was a "no-brainer" last night, especially when you factor in that the Astros lose the DH for these first two games. Sure enough, the game went "according to script" w/ the Dodgers prevailing by a final score of 3-1.

All the same disadvantages that existed for the Astros in Game 1 are present again here in Game 2. However, they don't have to face Kershaw, which should give them a "fighting shot." They'll also be sending Justin Verlander to the bump and he, their key midseason acquisition, has a 9-0 TSR his L9 outings. Verlanders' three postseason starts have been masterful w/ him turning in a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 ER in 22 IP w/ a 24-4 KW ratio. After going the distance (complete game) his 1st start against the Yankees in the ALCS, he shut them out for seven innings in Game 6. He's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 consecutive outings and has a 1.08 ERA and 0.70 WHIP his L7! American League pitchers theoretically benefit from pitching in National League parks too, so I expect Verlander to continue his dominance here tonight. The only question is: will it be enough? Perhaps. When he was still w/ the Tigers, Verlander faced this Dodgers lineup back in August and held them to one run and two hits in eight innings of work. That was in Comerica Park where he didn't even get to face the pitcher.

The issue for the Astros, however, remains on the other side of the ledger. The Dodgers have been incredibly stingy this postseason, giving up an average of just 1.4 runs the L7 games w/ opponents hitting a collective .141. For the year, opponents have averaged just 3.5 rpg here at Chavez Ravine while hitting .225. Rich Hill gets the baseball in Game 2 for LA and he checks in w/ a 1.69 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his L3 starts. Once again, there doesn't figure to be much scoring tonight. As we've seen all postseason, once you get to this Dodgers' bullpen, it's "lights out" for the opponent. That group can also prevent us from having to play the bottom of the ninth, always a key when playing the Under.  10* Under Astros/Dodgers

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Big bets have reportedly been laid down on Dodger Blue for Game 1 of the Fall Classic and I'll be making one myself. That's in large part because Clayton Kershaw gets the starting nod of the series opener and the game is being played at Chavez Ravine. Kershaw, your likely NL Cy Young winner, comes in w/ a 26-4 TSR this season. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. That includes a 14-2 TSR at home where the Dodgers are 61-24 overall. Furthermore, LA has dominated American League foes this season, going 16-4 overall. Throw in the fact that the Astros have gone 0-5 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and this seems like a slame dunk. 

The Dodgers are 7-1 in the postseason, losing only Game 4 of the NLCS. We all thought this team was vulnerable when they lost 16 of 17 games back in late August/early September, but it turns out that was just a minor "market correction" for a team that otherwise went 110-42 in all other games. Over the L6 games, they have allowed three runs or less every time. Getting the home field edge in this series is huge as Dodger Stadium is #1 in MLB for visitor run suppression at 3.3 runs per game. They have possibly the best pitcher in the game going tonight and remember that Houston did not swing the bats well in the ALCS, finishing that series w/ a .187 team batting average and average of 2.9 rpg.

Houston's hitting woes aren't likely to be rectified in the first two games of the World Series as they lose the DH from the lineup. Now they do have Dallas Keuchel starting tonight, but on the road his numbers do jump to a 3.77 ERA and 1.309 WHIP. Compare that to his home numnbers, which are 2.03 (ERA) and 0.937 (WHIP). The Dodgers, over the L7 games, have held opponents to a .157 team batting average and 2.0 runs per game. The Dodgers are also significantly better in 2017 when facing left-handed starters, going 37-15 in those games while outscoring the opposition by a full run per game.  8* LA Dodgers

10* Under Yankees/Astros (8:05 ET): The Yankees have done it yet again, rallying back from an 0-2 series hole by winning three straight. But unlike the LDS vs. Cleveland, this series is not over nor have they won a game on the road. The first two games here in Houston were both low-scoring affairs w/ the Astros winning 2-1 each time. Unfortunately for the Astros though, they have "picked" the worst possible time for their bats to go silent (more on that in a moment). While the series returning to Minute Maid Park seems like an advantage (road team has yet to win in this series), the Astros' offensive producton actually DECREASES at home! Thankfully for them, so too does the Yankees' on the road. We've got what looks like a strong starting pitching matchup on paper (Game 2 rematch), so I like the Under tonight. 

Of all the starters in the rotation, Justin Verlander certainly would seem to give Houston it's best chance of winning right now (and, no, I haven't forgotten about Dallas Keuchel). Verlander has an 8-0 TSR his L8 starts and went the distance in Game 2, allowing just one run on five hits w/ a 13-1 KW ratio. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of those last eight starts w/ a 61-9 KW ratio and his ERA/WHIP are 1.29/0.735. That's the good news for the Astros here. The bad news is, and pardon the lazy headline, "Houston we have a problem" and that problem is the offense. They've scored all of nine runs in the series, four of them coming in one game (Game 4). This is a pretty stunning decline, given they ranked #1 in all key statistical categories during the regular season. As mentioned earlier, they actually average fewer runs per game at home (4.9) compared to the road (6.0). That difference of more than a full run per game is pretty significant.

The Yankees see their own offensive production dip from 5.6 at home (tops among American League teams) to 4.9 on the road. If i can levy one criticism against their offense, and I do believe it is a valid one, it's that they are entirely too reliant on the home run ball. They've struck out at least 11 times in 8 of 10 playoff games so far. As previously mentioned, all they managed was a pair of runs in the first two games here in Houston. Four times this postseason, they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. So it will likely be up to Luis Severino to keep them in this one. Severino gave up only one run and two hits in Game 2, starting opposite Verlander, though he did only last four innings. But I'm not really concerned with the fact he's failed to make it past the fourth in two of his three postseason starts due to the strength of the Yankees' bullpen. Severino does have better numbers this year on the road (2.24 ERA, 1.037 WHIP) compared to at home. 10* Under Yankees/Astros

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The World Series Champs stayed alive last night w/ a 3-2 win in Game 4, thus snapping a six-game losing streak to the Dodgers and handing LA its first loss this postseason. But most will feel it was just "delaying the inevitable" as tonight finds Dodger Blue a decided favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. However, this isn't Chavez Ravine and this isn't the regular season, meaning the NL's likely Cy Young winner could be had here. Neither of Kershaw's playoff starts thus far have been quality, which is the continuation of a somewhat disturbing trend that has seen him pitch decidedly subpar come playoff time (throughout his career). Since rejoining the rotation in September (missed all of August due to injury), Kershaw has been mediocre at best w/ a 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP his last seven starts.

The Cubs' offense has not shown much in this series as all seven runs have come off six home runs (one was a 2-run shot). They are batting just .172 in the playoffs. That's not good. But what is good news is the fact the Kershaw has been susceptible to the long ball of late. He allowed FOUR solo home runs in his LDS start vs. Arizona and has given up at least one HR in seven consecutive outings. Opposing hitters are batting an incredible .538 on Kershaw's first pitch and four of those hits have been HR's. So, I expect the Cubs' hitters to be aggressive in this game. The "added insurance" that the RL provides is another nice luxury. Remember that the Cubs did beat Kershaw right here in Wrigley in Game 6 of LY's NLCS, which allowed them to advance to the World Series. 

Pitching for the Cubs tonight will be Jose Quintana, a lefty like Kershaw, who has been his team's most profitable starter in 2017. He lost opposite Kershaw in Game 1, but before that the team had won his previous seven starts. He still sports a 2.30 ERA and 0.884 WHIP his L7 starts, better numbers than Kershaw over that same span. Consider he was a +165 ML dog for that Game 1 matchup, so there seems to be some value here for the rematch at home. The Cubs caught some bad breaks in Games 2 and 3 and really weren't dominated to the degree that it's been made out to be. I absolutely can see them winning this game and forcing the series to go back to LA. But the safer call is to say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* Run Line NY Yankees (5:00 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Yankees at +1.5. Could the Bronx Bombers possibly pull off the same "trick" twice in row? It sure looks like it. For the second consecutive series, the Yanks have rallied back from an 0-2 hole to tie things up. But whereas that put them in position to "only" have to take a winner take all contest in Cleveland in the LDS, here it's down to best two out of three vs. Houston. For the record, New York did finish w/ a better regular season run differential than the Astros (+198 to +196) and despite losing 7 of 11 head to head matchups to them this season, it's been the team wearing pinstripes that actually has the edge in runs scored (57-52). Game 5 features a rematch of Game 1's starting pitching battle between Keuchel and Tanaka. While the former came out on top the first go-around, the latter is better suited for success in his own park this time.

The Astros' offense (#1 in MLB during the reg season) has gone curiously quiet in this series, scoring just nine runs in four games. Last night's loss dropped them to 0-6 this season when priced as a road dog of +125 to +175. Thus, a matchup w/ the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka seems ill-timed right now. Tanaka has turned in three consecutive quality starts, two of them here in the postseason. During that time, he's allowed just two runs on 10 hits in 20 IP. He has a 25-2 KW rate. Houston was baseball's road team in the regular season, but w/ the way they're (not) hitting right now, I'm not sure if that's relevant to the discussion at hand. Even though four of their nine runs scored in the series came yday, they were -9 in total bases (15 to 6) and have yet to win a game by more than one run in this ALCS. Tanaka has a sterling 0.980 WHIP at home this season (and an 11-5 TSR). 

Keuchel was dominant in Game 1 of this series, but that was also at Minute Maid Park where he sports a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. On the road, both his ERA & WHIP jump considerably. Both of his playoff starts so far have come at home and the last time he started on the road against a non-division opponent was 8.8! I find it interesting that Keuchel's TSR outside of the AL West is only 7-5 this year. He did win here at Yankee Stadium back in May, giving up only an unearned run in 6 IP, but it was of the one-run variety and that's a result we can take tonight. Given the way "momentum" has shifted in this series, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a real "steal." 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5)

full analysis soon

8* Run Line Houston (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Astros at +1.5. Even at "juiced up" odds, the RL feels like a "safe" value here w/ what is - clearly - the better of the two teams. I say that with all the respect in the world for what the Yankees have done this year as they actually underachieved in the regular season (had 2nd best run differential) and rallied back from a similar 0-2 deficit in the LDS against Cleveland. But, to me, the Astros just seem better in all facets of the game. Behind Dallas Keuchel, they dominated Game 1 (even though the final score was only 2-1) and then won Game 2 by the same score in walkoff fashion. Off B2B one-run wins, Houston will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the +1.5.

Houston is now 7-2 this year vs. the Yankees this season, although the number of runs scored are basically even at 47-43 (Houston's favor). Tonight is obviously a "must win" for the team wearing pinstripes, but as we all know, that doesn't mean they "will" win. Returning to the Bronx would normally be a big advantage for the Yankees as they happen to own baseball's best home run differential at +1.8 rpg. But, unfortunately for them, Houston happens to own the best road run differential in the sport and it's not even close at +1.4 rpg. (only one other team, Cleveland, was above 1.0). The Astros offense even averages more rpg on the road (6.1) than the Yankees do here at home (5.8). As has been been given much attention, the Yankees are striking out A LOT this postseason, including 27x already in this series. Rookie phenom Aaron Judge continues to be the biggest offender w/ 19 in 31 AB's! Meanwhile, Houston's top hitter (the likely MVP Jose Altuve) is batting .565 so far in the postseason. 

CC Sabathia pitched pretty well in both of his LDS starts, but he also can't go deep into games anymore. Just once since the All-Star Break has he made it past the sixth. His 9-0 KW rate in Game 5 vs. Cleveland was tremendous, but it's something that I don't feel is repeatable, especially here against MLB's top lineup. Remember Houston finished the reg season ranked #1 in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Sabathia should feel fortunate to have a 10-3 TSR this year at Yankee Stadium as his ERA/WHIP are 4.20/1.227. The Astros counter w/ Charlie Morton, who may share Sabathia's penchant for abbreviated starts, but he also has a 3.11 ERA his L7 starts, never once allowing more than 3 ER in any start during that span. Sorry Yankees fans, I just don't see any significant edge your team has over the Astros that would justify taking them in this spot. 8* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs +1.5. I laid off Game 1, in part, because the defending World Series Champs were facing Clayton Kershaw on the road. However, that turned out to NOT be the problem. Albert Almora, Jr hit a 2-run HR off Kershaw, giving the Cubs an early, but temporary, 2-0 lead. The Dodgers would then tie the game in the bottom of the fifth and subsequently take a 3-2 lead after six. The game then swung in the seventh where a controversial call at home plate (Catcher Contreras called for blocking) opened the door for two more Dodgers' runs. The Cubs are now 0-4 here in Chavez Ravine this season, but I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. Take the +1.5.

With some question over the state of the bullpen, Chicago needs a quality start here from Jon Lester. Fortunately, that's exactly what they got from him in the LDS, though they would go on to lose that game to the Nats, 6-3. But don't pin that on Lester as he allowed just one run on two hits in six innings of work. He did work Game 4 of the LDS as well, throwing 51 pitches, which means he's working here on only three days' rest. But his L3 starts have all been superb as he's given up just 2 ER (both on solo HR's!) in 17 IP. He's allowed all of 11 hits during that span as well. In last year's NLCS, Lester posted a 2-0 team start record against the Dodgers, a series that the Cubs won in six games. Remember, it's VERY rare for the Cubs to be ML underdogs. Yesterday marked just the 25th time (in 167 games) that it happened all season! So there's value to be had here.

The Dodgers turn to Rich Hill, who was waiting in the wings LY to pitch a Game 7 that never happened. That's because the Cubs beat Kershaw in Game 6 and advanced to the World Series. Hill has pitched well at home most of the season, not surprising seeing as Dodgers Stadium is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. But in his LDS start, he lasted only four innings. Sure he gave up only two runs on three hits, but three walks and a home run allowed were among the concerning things I saw there. Hill did not face the Cubs in the regular season. After that somewhat rocky finish to the regular season, the Dodgers have yet to lose here in the playoffs (won 6 in a row overall). But despite their home dominance in the regular season, they are just 13-11 as a ML favorite of -125 to -175. That's the range they find themselves tonight and in a game that qualifies as a "toss-up" to me, I'm grabbing the added insurance that the run line provides. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): It's a winner take all Game 5 in Cleveland tonight as the Indians' 2-0 series lead has evaporated thanks to them losing both games in the Bronx. But this is where them finishing w/ the AL's best record comes in "handy" as they're now back at home w/ the probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber on the hill. Granted, the last time this situation presented itself (Game 2), things got a bit dicey w/ the Yankees knocking out Kluber early (after just 2 2/3 IP!). But, as you know, the Tribe came back to win that game, 9-8, in 13 innings. Had it not been for that rally, the team that won an AL-record 22 straight games would already be done. But fortunately for them, the likelihood of Kluber struggling again is small and the numbers back that assertion up.

Not including Game 2, there have been four other instances of Kluber allowing 4+ runs in a start this season. Three of them occurred back in April/May before he spent almost a month on the DL. All four times have seen him bounce back w/ a quality outing where he allowed 2 ER or less. The last three times in the scenario, he's allowed only 1 ER in a total of 24 IP w/ TWO complete games and his KW ratio was 30-4. Ironically, the last time he was coming off a poor outing, he happened to face the Yankees (here at Progressive Field) and tossed a CG three-hitter (allowed 1 ER). This is a pitcher w/ a 0.897 WHIP for the year and backed by one of the game's top bullpens. If you're manager Terry Francona and you need to win a game, Kluber is clearly who you want pitching.

The Yankees have a losing road record on the year. Over the L7 games, their vaunted offense is batting a collective .206. They woke up in Game 4, but that was at home. I maintain that this offense is too reliant on the long ball and if they're not hitting home runs, they simply don't score much. CC Sabathia (former Indian!) will oppose Kluber here, just like he did in Game 2. I was surprised that the hefty lefty was able to pitch as well as he did last Friday, but even then he did allow four runs (two unearned) and issue three walks. While Sabathia has a team start record (19-9) similar to Kluber's (21-9), his ERA is a over a full point higher and his WHIP is 1.266, compared to Kluber's league-leading number (see above). Again, this is the AL's top pitcher on the mound as a big home favorite. In his final 15 reg season starts, Kluber posted a 1.79 ERA and a 142-12 KW rate. Edwin Encarnacion could be back tonight for Cleveland, which would be a nice lift. 8* Cleveland

8* Under Astros/Red Sox (1:05 ET): Houston missed out on a chance to sweep Boston Sunday, losing Game 3 by a score of 10-3. The home team is now 3-0 in the series as is the Over. Though I'm still firmly "in the camp" of those who believe the Astros ultimately prevail in this series, the Under seems like the better call to me this afternoon. The O/U line has steadily climbed from 7.0 in Gm 1 to 8.5 in Game 2 to 9.5 in Game 3. To me, this is its apex. Houston may have scored eight times in both Games 1 and 2 while Boston crossed the plate TEN times yday. But today, I'll call for more of a "pitcher's duel" even w/ a far less marquee starting pitching matchup than we've had any of the three previous games in this series. Note it was a 4-3 game yday before Boston broke things open w/ a six-run seventh inning.

There were plenty of hits, from both sides yday, and Houston started the scoring w/ a three-run 1st inning. From there, however, (despite 13 hits) they would not score again as Boston used David Price in relief and he pitched four scorless innings. Red Sox starters have NOT gotten the job done in this series so far, but I'll call for Rick Porcello to surprise in this spot. Last year's Cy Young campaign was clearly a fluke, but Porcello did win his final three regular season starts. Boston pitching was typically more stingy in the daytime this year as going into yday, they'd held opponents to just 3.8 rpg w/ a .239 batting average in afternoon games. The Under is 29-17-2. Yes, I'm well aware that Houston is the highest scoring road team in baseball, but for eight innings yday, they didn't score a single run.

As mentioned before, Boston did the majority of its offensive damage yday in one big inning. Their offense is highly overrated as they rank only 26th in slugging and 27th in home runs. Both marks are easily the worst among playoff teams. They'd been averaging fewer than four runs per game for a full week going into yday while batting a collective .239. Astros' Game 4 starter Charlie Morton has quietly had a really solid year w/ a 3.34 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 25 starts. He allowed 2 ER or fewer in all five September starts. That includes a strong showing here in Fenway Park where he allowed just two runs on four hits w/ no walks (4 K's) in 5 1/3 IP. The Astros won that game 3-2 and Morton is now 2-0 w/ a 1.74 ERA in two career starts vs. Boston. Hoping Mother Nature cooperates today and lets us get this game in! 8* Under Astros/Red Sox

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): It is "all over but the shouting," in my opinon, for the New York Yankees. If they couldn't win Game 2, a scenario that saw them knock probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber out of the game early and take an 8-3 lead, then just how are they going to beat these Indians? I find it highly unlikely that they'll be able to "knock around" Cleveland's Game 3 starter, Carlos Carrasco, who comes in w/ a stupendous 24-8 team start record, including 7-0 his L7. Sure the scene now shifts to Yankee Stadium, but Carrasco is 11-2 on the road this year (13-4 TSR) w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.997 WHIP, better numbers than he has in his home park. Teams that are off B2B losses in the MLB Playoffs and are a ML dog have only managed to go 13-28 in the next game since '05. I look for the Tribe to complete the sweep here and advance to the ALCS (where they'll likely be matched up against Houston). 

Let us not forget that Cleveland has won 43 of its last 50 games! That includes the 7-0 mark when Carrasco pitches and he's been downright filthy during that time. We're talking a 1.27 ERA and 0.966 WHIP as he's allowed 1 or 0 ER six times. He did lose his lone regular season start against the Yankees, giving up five runs in 5 2/3 IP, but that was at Progressive Field which is where his only non-quality start out of the last seven also took place. The Yankees a formidable offensive team here in the Bronx, averaging 5.6 rpg. But I don't see them "getting off" like they did against Kluber in Game 2. This lineup is a little "too dependent" on the home run in my opinion and it should be a performance somewhere in between the levels of Game 1 and 2 here. It just won't be enough.

Masahiro Tanaka will start for the Yanks. Like Carrasco, he was brilliant in his final regular season start, allowing no runs on three hits in seven innings and striking out 15. (Carrasco came within one out of a CG shutout and had 14 K's vs. Minnesota). But the difference between the two starters here is that Carrasco is more consistent. Case in point, the start before last saw Tanaka give up eight runs. That's more than Carrasco has allowed in his L7 starts combined! Tanaka also allowed seven runs in his first start in September. Granted, both bad efforts came on the road. But there's a lot of pressure here on Tanaka, not just due to the gravity of the situation (season on the line), but also because the Yankees bullpen has been severely taxed twice this week (Wild Card Game and Game 2). By the way, the Cleveland offense averages 5.1 rpg on the road this year, second most in all of baseball. They and the Astros were by far the league's two best road teams. How appropos then that they might meet in the ALCS? 10* Cleveland

6* Run Line Chi Cubs (5:30 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs at +1.5. I did the same yday and it turned out the World Series Champs didn't even need the "additional help" that the RL provides as they took Game 1 in shutout fashion, 3-0. Needless to say, dropping that game w/ Stephen Strasburg on the hill and Max Scherzer not pitching until Game 3 in an ominous sign for a franchise that has NEVER advanced past the LDS stage in its history. Even worse, Strasburg was brilliant last night as he recorded 10 K's and allowed only three hits in 7 IP (none until the sixth). But the offense was non-existent as what I predicted - the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks would be able to stand "toe to toe" w/ Strasburg - came to fruition. 

Washington had arguably the National League's best offense for most of the year, but it's production waned as the season wore on, which you could possibly link to the absence of Bryce Harper from the lineup. As mentioned in yday's analysis, Harper got in only 18 AB's since returning from injury. Again, does anyone trust manager Dusty Baker in this spot? The Cubs will now look to take a decided 2-0 edge in the series w/ Jon Lester on the mound Saturday night. Lester, a playoff veteran, closed the regular season w/ B2B strong outings as he allowed just one run in 11 IP. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his last five starts. While never factoring into either decision (1-1 TSR), Lester posted a 2.79 ERA in his two reg season starts vs. the Nationals. He allowed just four runs on nine hits in 12 2/3 IP overall. Whereas yday was more of a "toss-up," I give the Cubs a pretty clear edge in starting pitching for Game 2. 

Gio Gonzalez gets the call here for Washington. While he posted better numbers than Lester in the reg season, he didn't close as well, giving up nine runs over 9 1/3 innings his last two starts. He also issued eight walks during that time. Three times in his L7 starts, he's allowed at least five runs. While the narrative is that the Cubs aren't as good this year, note that the second half saw them post NL bests in run differential (+127), won-loss record (49-25), runs per game (5.7) and starting pitcher ERA (3.36). They are the better team here. 6* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

6* LA Dodgers (10:35 ET): It seems as if Arizona is a VERY trendy underdog coming into this LDS matchup with the Dodgers. And why wouldn't they be? After all, they've swept the Dodgers the last two times they faced them and LA really stumbled down the stretch, losing 22 of its last 35 games. However, clearly, this Dodgers team is nowhere near as bad as they played during that infamous 1-15 stretch, just like they probably weren't as good as their 91-36 start to the season. It was a simple "market correction" that occurred in late August, nothing more. An extraordinarily high Game 1 price isn't about to scare me away though as tonight's pitching matchup is every bit the mismatch the oddsmakers are making it out to be. Look for the home team to take Game 1.

Arizona may have won six straight times over Dodger Blue, but there are numerous concerns for Game 1. For starters (pun intended!), Taijuan Walker hasn't been very good of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts are 5.27 and 1.683 respectively. When you combine that with the fact that the D'backs are one of baseball's lightest hitting road teams, it's definitely not good. Arizona ranked 28th in the regular season in team batting average (.235) away from home, just ahead of San Diego and Texas. They were 24th in OBP and 23rd in slugging. Thus, the fact they ranked 16th in runs scored on the road should be considered somewhat fortunate. As you may know, Dodgers Stadium was #1 in MLB all year long in run suppression w/ visitors averaging only 3.3 rpg here. Walker does have a 3-0 TSR against the Dodgers in 2017, but still, I think the team would rather have Zack Greinke (pitched Wild Card Game) or "Dodgers-killer" Robbie Ray (had to come on in relief in WC Game) starting in this spot.

Kershaw turned in another Cy Young caliber season w/ a 2.31 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 27 starts. The team went 23-4 in those 27 starts, so this is definitely the guy they want on the mound in this spot. Note that when Arizona swept the Dodgers twice in 10 days back in late August/early September, they did not face Kershaw, who was 2-0 against them in the regular season (allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 15 1/3 IP w/ 19-3 KW rate). The Dodgers finished the regular season w/ the best home record in all of baseball (57-24) and that includes a 13-2 record when priced above -250 on the money line. They are 27-5 in that range the L3 seasons, the majority of those games coming when Kershaw starts. As for Arizona, they were just 1-3 as a road dog of +175 to +250 in the reg season and 7-21 in that range the L3 seasons. I'm not ready to call this series for the Dodgers, but w/ the best pitcher in the National League going at home, they'll take Game 1 and avenge those two sweeps. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Under D'backs/Dodgers (10:35 ET): The combination of Kershaw, Dodger Stadium being #1 in MLB for visitor run suppression, Arizona's rather dramatic dropoff offensively on the road and the O/U itself also have me on the Under in this Game 1 matchup. As discussed in the Dodgers' writeup, Kershaw is a pitcher that needs no introduction. He was 2-0 w/ a 0.59 ERA in two starts vs. the D'backs this year and has a 2.55 ERA in 26 career starts against them. He led the National League in wins and ERA while ranking 2nd in WHIP. He was eighth in strikeouts, but also threw basically 30 fewer innings than the majority of those above him. Dodger Stadium saw an average of only 8.2 rpg scored (total) during the regular season w/ visitors averaging a MLB low 3.3 rpg. Ten times in 14 home starts, Kershaw allowed 2 ER or fewer this season. 

I picked Arizona over Colorado in the NL Wild Card Game largely due to the fact the game was in Arizona and both of those teams have dramatic home vs. road splits. Well, now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" for the D'backs as they hit the road. Only Colorado w/ its greatly park-aided effect averaged more runs per game at home this year than did the D'backs. But on the road, Arizona drops from 5.7 rpg to 4.4 rpg, and really they are fortunate to even average that. They ranked 28th in the regular season in team batting average (.235) away from home, just ahead of San Diego and Texas. They were 24th in OBP and 23rd in slugging. Thus, the fact they ranked 16th in runs scored on the road should be considered somewhat fortunate. If there is one "silver lining" for them here, however, it is that they allowed only 3.9 rpg as the road team this year. That was tied w/ the Dodgers for best in the National League. 

The number here is also key w/ 7 being a key number and we have an extra half-run to play with. If this game goes as I believe it will, with Kershaw dealing and the Dodgers winning, then there's a very good chance they won't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Not having to play that last half-inning can often been the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Bottom line is I expect the Dodgers, led by Kershaw, to win a low-scoring game here. 8* Under D'backs/Dodgers

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs at +1.5. An injury to a pitcher the caliber of Max Scherzer would cripple most teams, but for the Nats, having Stephen Strasburg is a nice "fall back." Scherzer was originally slated to start the opener of the LDS, but a hamstring injury suffered in his last reg season start paved the way for Strasburg to get the honors instead. Again, this is a nice luxury to have considering, they are 7-0 in Strasburg's previous seven starts w/ the pitcher turning in a 0.76 and 0.797 WHIP. But this is the Cubs that they're facing in what I feel is the most evenly matched of the four LDS. Note four of those seven wins w/ Strasburg on the hill came by exactly one run. I'll say the Cubs do no worse than one-run loss here. 

The Game 1 starter for the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks, is no slouch in his own right. He posted a 0.96 ERA his L3 starts and over his L7, he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his 11 starts since returning from injury just after the All-Star Break. What's even more impressive is that he's allowed 0 or 1 ER in eight of those 11 outings! In five career starts vs. Washington, Hendricks has a 2.67 ERA. He faced them once this year and allowed only three runs on five hits, in seven innings of work. His final regular season outing came in St. Louis and there he tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball. Even more encouraging is that his nine strikeouts were a season-best. Nine of Hendricks' 24 starts this year have ended up as one-run games, a result we'll take either way here. Furthermore, he's been a better pitcher on the road this year w/ a 2.83 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 11 starts. 

The Cubs aren't underdogs often; in fact, it happened just 21 times in the regular season. Four of those came in their lone visit to the Nation's Capital, a series that took place back in late June. They wound up splitting the four games. The Cubs are an excellent road team as they outscored opponents by 0.8 rpg as the visitors. Very quietly, this team finished the regular season on a 23-10 tear, making them arguably the hottest team on the National League side of the draw. There's a lot of pressure here on the Nats, who have NEVER advanced past the LDS in franchise history. Not only is Scherzer's health a big question mark, but Bryce Harper has had only 18 at-bats since returning from his own long injury absence. I don't need to tell Cubs' fans that trusting Dusty Baker this time of year can be wishful thinking. To me, Strasburg is "due" to lose one and this Game 1 matchup is a lot more even than it's been priced by the oddsmakers. 8* Run Chi Cubs (+1.5)

10* Under Yankees/Indians (7:35 ET): This LDS matches up the top two teams in run differential from the regular season. Cleveland is the current betting favorite to win the World Series, thanks to a starting rotation that ranks among the greatest EVER (30.0 WAR!). They closed the regular season on an insane 41-7 run, at one point winning 22 games in a row (AL record). Thanks in large part to that all-time great starting rotation, the Tribe gave up the fewest runs in baseball this year - 564 - with only one other team (Dodgers) even within 100 of that number! Not surprisingly then, the Under cashed plenty for this team (94-61-7) including a 48-31-2 mark here at Progressive Field where they allow just 3.5 rpg. No team went Under more in the regular season, both overall and at home. Trevor Bauer may be a "surprising" Game 1 starter to some, but over the last two months he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of 11 starts.

The Yankees fell behind 3-0 in the first inning of the Wild Card Game against Minnesota w/ starter Luis Severino recording all of ONE out! But thanks to the bullpen, they were able to rally and win rather easily, 8-4. Thus, I'm not really concerned about Sonny Gray's somewhat shaky Yankees' tenure. Note he still posted a 3.55 ERA in the regular season. Manager Joe Girardi has no reason NOT to go to the bullpen early if necessary and has already shown he has a "quick hook." As for the Yanks' vaunted offense, it was held to two runs or less in five of seven regular season meetings w/ Cleveland this year.

We're dealing with arguably the top two bullpens in the game here. That's huge. As long as neither starter "blows up" and has a bad inning, I just can't see either team scoring a lot of runs here in Game 1 or the series as a whole. As far as a bad inning goes, both managers aren't likely to allow such a thing to occur given the bullpens at their disposal. We saw what the Yankees' bullpen is capable of in the Wild Card game, holding the Twins to just one run while recording 26 outs. Opposing hitters went just 3 for 39 against Aroldis Chapman in September w/ no runs scored and 17 strikeouts. Cleveland's bullpen was slightly better in the regular season (2.58 ERA, 1.010 WHIP at home) and now gets even stronger w/ the additions of Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger. Over the L7 games, the Indians held opponents to a .221 batting average and 2.6 rpg. The Yankees' have been just as stingy though (also 2.6 rpg allowed) and opponents have an even lower batting average of .188! Bauer was 2-0 vs. the Yankees this year w/ a 1.38 ERA. 10* Under Yankees/Indians

8* Arizona (8:05 ET): Compared to the AL Wild Card matchup, the perception here is a far more "even" battle is set to take place. But with the game at Chase Field and Zack Greinke pitching, it's a massive edge to the D'backs, which is not properly reflected in the pricing. Consider that Arizona outscored its visitors by the widest margin of all home teams in the National League. The big key here is that unlike Coors Field in Colorado, visiting teams do not typically get to share in the offensive outbursts regularly seen from the home team at Chase Field. That's not good news for a Colorado offense which has always had its fair share of problems away from the high altitude of Denver and only averaged 4.1 rpg on the road in the regular season. Now they must deal w/ Greinke, who has always been an outstanding home pitcher throughout his career.

Though he was a little shaky at the end, particularly the 9.22 outing vs. Miami where he allowed eight runs, 2017 marked another strong regular season from Greinke. He finished in the top six in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP among all NL starters. I mentioned earlier that he's always been a dominant pitcher at home, whether we're talking previous stints in KC, Milwaukee and Los Angeles, or the current one here. At Chase Field this season, he posted a 13-1 WL record w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 18 starts (15-3 TSR). He was a major reason why the D'backs allowed 231 runs LESS than LY's 93-loss team! In fact, the D'backs quietly allowed a fewer number of runs this year than everybody but the Indians and Dodgers. The rotation's WAR led the NL and Greinke is the best of the lost. Assuming he gets the requisite amt of run support here, Greinke should notch yet another home victory.

Colorado allowed almost 100 runs more than Arizona in the regular season and easily the most among the 10 playoff teams. A lot of that can be attributed to the "Coors Effect," but the most suspect of the 10 starting rotations left can't really be trusted right now either. Jon Gray is the choice for Wednesday and while his numbers may look decent, his ERA & WHIP are only 4.06 and 1.352 on the road. Over the next 48 hours, you may hear a lot about how he did win twice here at Chase Field during the reg season, but neither of those starts came opposite Greinke, who makes the margin for error so slim. These teams finished w/ identical road records (41-40), but the difference was Arizona going 52-29 at home. That's why this game is being played at Chase Field and not Coors. Only the Dodgers won more games at home than the D'backs this year. This will be Greinke's SIXTH time facing the Rockies' lineup this year, so he should know the individual hitters well. With a significant edge in starting pitching and a dominant homefield edge, I see no reason to go against the D'backs in this spot. 8* Arizona

10* Run Line Minnesota (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Twins at +1.5. Of the 10 playoff entrants, Minnesota is certainly the least likely. This was a 100+ loss team a year ago, but thanks to better defense and "front-end" starters, they saw their win total increase by an astronomical 26 games in 2017. No one is going to give them much of a chance Tuesday though and the fact that they're matched up w/ the popular Yankees means they're not going to be given much of a chance, let alone an endorsement. Then you have the fact that when they visited Yankees Stadium last month, they were swept. But the size of the money line has created a scenario where the run line is a very viable option here. The Twins were a great road team during the regular season (44-37) and have their top pitcher going Tuesday. 

Ervin Santana went 16-8 in 33 starts during the regular season (19-14 TSR) and was actually more effective on the road. He has a 2.71 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 17 road starts w/ a won-loss record of 10-3 (11-6 TSR). He closed the regular season w/ four consecutive starts of allowing 3 ER or fewer, one of them here at Yankee Stadium where he was a hard-luck 2-1 loser. (I'll take that result this go around!). He even held the red-hot Indians scoreless for five innings his last time out, though the Twins' bullpen eventually wilted. Since the start of August, Santana has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of 12 starts. (He's also taken the loss just ONCE during this time). So he should take care of his part of the equation. As for the Twins offense, well, they average 4.9 rpg on the road.

The Yankees led baseball's power renaissance this season w/ 241 HR's. (Interestingly though, seven of the top 10 teams in HR's hit in the reg season DIDN'T make the playoffs). They were an admittedly dominant home team, scoring 5.6 rpg at Yankee Stadium and outscoring foes by 1.7 rpg! Based on run differential, they actually underperformed in terms of wins by about 11 wins. That "underperformance" was owed to an 18-26 record in one-run games. To me, a one-run game is the most likely occurrence here. Starter Luis Severino might have been the best American League pitcher not named "Sale" or "Kluber" down the stretch as the team has won each of his previous five starts. Interestingly though, he lasted only three innings when he faced the Twins last month and gave up three runs, all of them in the third, which took him 46 pitches to get out of. That's definitely worth noting. This will be his 1st postseason start (third for Santana) and don't forget this is pitcher just one year removed from an 0-8 season. Counting on Aaron Judge slugging home runs doesn't sound like a recipe for success this time of year. The Twins were tied for 2nd in net units (+15.3) during the regular season. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have now - inexplicably - lost seven straight times to the division rival A's over the last month. They've also lost their last seven games overall. As a result, they have nothing to play for but pride on the final weekend of the regular season. However, I'm willing to stick to my philosophy and "go down w/ the ship" if necessary. The idea that they could continue losing to Oakland, day after day, seems pretty outlandish to me, especially considering the A's horrid 28-50 road record. They're being outscored by 1.2 rpg on the road this year, so it's not as if they've been competitive either. The two prior sweeps of the Rangers both took place in Oakland. I'm a firm believer in taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) and seeing as Texas now has revenge for two sweeps (plus last night), I'm on them again here. 

Admittedly, things have not gone well for the Rangers over the last week as they've been outscored by an average 6.3 rpg during the losing streak. Last night was a 4-1 loss. Oakland happens to be trending in the opposite direction as they've won 16 of their last 21 games, including 9 of the last 11. But, I'm still willing to call for a halt to these disparate streaks tonight. Texas will have Martin Perez on the hill as he makes his team-leading 32nd start. Granted, the numbers aren't great and he did allow five runs (in 4 2/3 IP) his last start, which was against these A's. But that also came on the heels of a stretch that saw him allow 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. So, a bounce back is likely here. Oakland generally does not hit well away from home (.237 team BA). Perez's ERA has dropped nearly two full points here in the second half of the season.

The A's counter w/ Raul Alcantara, who has made just three starts prior to this one. He has a 6.75 ERA even though he's not allowed a single run in 8 2/3 innings of work here in September. (That should tell you how bad the 1st start, which took place all the way back in April, was). He threw five shutout innings against the Rangers last week in what ended up being a 1-0 A's victory. But the Rangers were also the ones that hammered him for eight runs in just two innings back in April. Expect Alcantara's performance tonight to be "somewhere in the middle" of the previous two against Texas. The A's are just 18-25 vs. lefty starters this year and 49-83 against them the L3 seasons. 10* Texas

8* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): There's only one playoff spot still up for grabs and it's in the National League, currently occupied by the Colorado Rockies. Having been in playoff position EVERY DAY THIS SEASON except one (April 14th!), things are looking good for the Rockies heading into the regular season's final weekend. One of two teams that was chasing them, the Cardinals, were officially eliminated last night. They have a two game edge on the Brewers, who close out in St. Louis. As long as Colorado wins one game this weekend, they are at least assured of a play-in game against Milwaukee. That's if the Brew Crew were to sweep the Cards or win two out of three (if Rockies get swept). Not sure what's going to take place in that NL Central series, but here out West, things are not going to be easy on the team in pole position. They have to face the Dodgers, who are still trying to lock down homefield advantage for the entire postseason. Dodger Blue has revenge here for a four-game sweep that took place at home earlier this month. As a result, I like the road team in this series opener. 

The Dodgers have the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in MLB history to both win and lose 15 times in a 16 game stretch in the same season. But, clearly, they've won a lot more than they've lost this year as they enter Friday w/ the best overall record in baseball at 102-57. They are two games up on the Indians, so a win tonight would guarantee them homefield advantage throughout the postseason. That would be huge considering the club's impressive 57-24 WL record at Chavez Ravine. Granted, this series is on the road and in the total opposite environment of Dodgers Stadium (#1 in run suppression for visitors). But LA comes in playing well, having taken six of seven including four straight. Admittedly, those wins came at the expense of the Padres and Giants, but in the case of the last series (against SD), they were as dominant as you'd hope. They outscored the Padres 28-5 in the three games and are allowing an average of 2.0 runs the L7 games w/ opponents batting just .215. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start the opener for Los Angeles, bringing in a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, he hasn't won any of those, nor has his team! So, he's "due" in light of recent performance. In three September starts, Ryu has allowed just two runs in 13 IP. The problem has been the offense scoring just one time in all three games. Here at Coors Field, he should expect more run support. Of course, that works both ways as you can't necessarily expect Ryu to allow 1 or 0 ER, but fortunately Colorado's Chad Bettis comes in sporting an 8.10 ERA and 2.100 WHIP his L3 starts. Even better, in nine career appearances, Bettis has a 9.60 ERA against the Dodgers. Both teams had Thursday off and that's to the Dodgers advantage as they are 13-3 after an off-day (Colorado just 9-9). 8* LA Dodgers

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have dropped six in a row, not that it matters anymore as what was once a very wide open chase for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League has now been decided w/ the Twins clinching yday. At the start of the season, I called for major regression from the Rangers as LY's team may have finished w/ the best record in the A.L. (95 wins), but they outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs over the entire season! They set a new MLB mark for best ever record in one-run games, which is an unsustainable blueprint for success. The unlikelihood of them making the playoffs this year was cemented when they became sellers at the trade deadline, most notably dealing away ace Yu Darvish. 

However, all that being said, there is tremendous value in taking the Rangers here tonight. Yes, they've not only been swept in two consecutive series, but they've got a rare case of double revenge to exact against the A's.  Oakland is responsible for three of the Rangers' six straight losses, having swept them last weekend (by the Bay). They also swept them in Oakland late last month. It's very rare to see one opponent sweep another twice in a row, especially when the team that sweeps is the inferior ballclub. Instrumental to this play is Oakland's home/road splits. As mentioned before, both sweeps of Texas took place at home. Following yday's win, this team is 46-35 (+13.3 units!) at the O.co Coliseum. But on the road, they've been a disaster all year, turning in a 27-50 record (-16.1 units) while being outscored by 1.3 runs pe game. Only the Giants have fewer road wins this year (what is it about leaving the Bay area?) and only a handful of teams have a worse run differential away from home this year.

Pitching tonight for Texas will be Miguel Gonzalez. It's his second straight time starting against the A's. Last weekend, he was a hard luck loser. He allowed just one run on four hits, that one run being a solo HR, but sadly that was the difference in the game as Oakland won 1-0. Gonzalez had five strikeouts and zero walks in six innings. That followed him allowing just one run on two hits in 5 IP his previous start, which was a 4-2 win over the Angels. The A's counter here w/ Sean Manaea, who has a rather ugly 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in the L2, which have spanned only 8 2/3 innings. His L11 starts have seen him allow opponents to bat .346 (!) and he's 3-5 w/ a 6.27 ERA. He has a 6.10 ERA in two starts vs. Texas this year. Getting back to the A's road woes, they are only 1-5 here in Arlington this season, getting swept once themselves. The Rangers are not as bad as they've played recently while Oakland is not as good as its played recently. The A's are also w/o rookie Matt Olson the rest of the way and he was the primary reason for the team's offensive resurgence. With neither side having much to play for (except pride), I'm banking big on the revenge angle here. 10* Texas

8* Under Pirates/Nationals (7:05 ET): There is nothing to play for here as Pittsburgh was eliminated from playoff contention long ago and the Nats are locked into a Division Series matchup w/ the Cubs (where they'll have homefield advantage). Furthermore, these teams are hardly familiar with one another here in 2017. They've met only one time previous, a three-game series in Pittsburgh, back in May. The Pirates took two of the three games, but in the grand scheme of things, that achievement is rather meaningless. They come into this final series of the year on a four-game win streak, also pretty meaningless, as that whole streak took place at home. On the road, the Bucs have been really dreadful this year; 29-48 w/ just 4.1 runs per game scored. I'm on the Under here. 

There was a time when Washington led all of MLB in most key offensive categories. They've slipped recently though, down to sixth in runs scored. Over the L7 games, they've averaged only 3.7 rpg while batting a collective .197. Disappointing is that stretch has coincided w/ the return of Bryce Harper to the lineup. Fortunately though, they've held opponents to just 3.3 rpg over those same L7 games. A four-game Under streak was broken last night w/ a 7-5 loss to the Phillies, but I don't see that kind of game playing out here. Starter Edwin Jackson has certainly struggled of late, but he's always pitched well against the Pirates as he is 10-3 w/ a 3.71 ERA in 21 career appearances. It is unlikely that Jackson even makes the postseason roster, but if he wants to, he'll need a quality start here. The Nats' bullpen has been good at home w/ a 3.98 ERA. 

Since they haven't really been a contender, you may wonder what ails Pittsburgh. Well, it starts w/ an offense that ranks 28th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in slugging. As mentioned before, they've been a disaster on the road this year and that includes a .236 team batting average. I don't see them being able to take advantage of Jackson's recent struggles in this spot. Pitching for them tonight will be Ivan Nova, whose L3 starts have all stayed Under the total. Nova has a horrible 4-14 TSR on the road this year, but he's pitched better than that record would indicate. He's turned in B2B decent starts, allowing only four runs (three earned) in 11 1/3 IP. Nova's main problem is that the offense tends to "forget" to support him. They've scored three runs or less in each of his last four starts and just seven runs total. The Pirates are the top Under team in the NL (89-62-7) and Washington isn't far behind (80-68-10). The Under has cashed in over 61% of Pirates' road games. 8* Under Pirates/Nationals

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Despite not even playing a game, the Brewers were a big winner Monday as both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. That left them 1.5 games back of Colorado and one game up on St. Louis (who they close the season against). That deficit and lead stayed the same after Tuesday's results though as all three teams won, including the Brew Crew 7-6 over the Reds. This series is a revenge spot for the home team who was swept down in Cincy earlier this month. Milwaukee badly needs to return the favor here in order to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card. Fortunately, it looks like the lowly Reds will be all too quick to oblige. Cincy has now dropped seven in a row and is 27-48 on the road (-1.3 rpg). Last night's game was not as close as the final one-run margin might seem to indicate. The Brewers led 4-0 after the first inning and 6-2 after three.

Reds pitching has generally been pretty bad all season. The staff ranks 29th in ERA and 28th in WHIP and has given up the most runs in the National League (850). But lately, things have gotten real dire w/ this group. They've allowed an average of 6.7 rpg during the seven-game losing streak and that figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Homer Bailey on the hill Wednesday. Bailey has a 6.96 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 17 starts. In three starts against Milwaukee this year, his ERA is 7.07. What's really frightening however, is that out of those 17 starts this season, Bailey has made it past the sixth inning only ONCE. That means the Reds' horrid bullpen (5.13 ERA, 1.510 WHIP on the road) is likely to come into play here. 

The Brewers were able to take advantage of a starter making his big league debut (in the starter's role) last night. Tonight, it will be them turning to a rather inexperienced hurler. Brandon Woodruff will be making only his eighth career start in this "must-win" spot and he's yet to win in four tries here at Miller Park. However, that record and his ERA are rather deceiving. His WHIP at home is 1.103, which is actually very good. He's just been a victim of some bad "cluster luck." Take his last start for example. He allowed five hits in five innings against the Cubs, but wound up giving up four runs. Three walks certainly didn't help there, but control really hadn't been an issue previously. Milwaukee badly needs this win and I think they'll get it. 10* Milwaukee

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): After a disappointing loss in the series opener, the Rockies came back and won for me on Tuesday, 6-0, thereby avenging a prior sweep at the hands of the Marlins (that took place last month). The home team certainly has more on the line here as they try and hold onto the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Because both Milwaukee and St. Louis also won last night, the Rockies lead is now 1.5 and 2 games respectively over those two clubs. Miami is simply playing out the string this final week. With what looks to be a decided starting pitching edge, I look for Colorado to exercise it homefield advantage to the fullest Wednesday afternoon and dominate yet again.

The Rockies, not surprisingly, are yet again the highest scoring home team in all of baseball at 5.9 rpg. This does not bode well at all for Marlins starter Adam Conley, who comes in w/ an ugly 10.49 ERA and 2.165 WHIP his L3 starts. Pitching in another hitter-friendly park (Chase Field) his last start, Conley surrendered seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings. For the year, he's 7-6 in 19 starts, but his TSR is 9-10 and his ERA/WHIP are 5.71/1.490. I look for him to struggly mightily in this spot. He's simply not giving skipper Don Mattingly many innings of late as he's made it past the fifth inning just one time in four September starts. As a result, he has a 9.56 ERA this month. Colorado has gone 34-22 against southpaw starters in 2017. Conley did not face them in the series last month.

Push Miami north of +175 on the ML and their record on the road is just 2-8 this season.  Overall, they've dropped 16 of their last 24 ballgames. Conversely, Colorado is 10-5 this season north of -175 at home and they are also 34-22 in day games. Jon Gray starting justifies the price range here as he comes in having allowing 3 ER or fewer in 12 consecutive starts! During that time, he's gone 6-3 w/ a 2.49 ERA. Opponents are batting only .249 against him w/ a .656 OPS. His KW ratio is 75-16 and he's allowed only 65 hits in 72 1/3 IP. So this is precisely the pitcher the Rockies would want starting in this spot. Over his last four starts, Gray has allowed just four runs (in 24 IP) on 18 hits and has 28 strikeouts (against just four walks). Perhaps most impressive of all is him allowing only 3 HR's his L10 starts. With the two teams chasing them (Brewers & Cardinals) set to play a three-game series this weekend, it's vital that the Rockies maintain their edge in the standings going into Friday. There's a good chance that those two will "take each other out," thereby costing themselves the Wild Card. 8* Colorado

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were another team that let me down last night, but I'm banking on them bouncing back Tuesday. They better as their lead over Milwaukee has been trimmed to just one game in the chase for the final playoff spot in the National League. St. Louis also lost yday, so they remain two back. It would be a real shame if the Rockies ended up missing the playoffs as they have been in position to make it virtually all season. The team they are facing here, Miami, has ZERO to play for this week and Colorado still has revenge for a sweep that took place down in Florida last month. The Rockies certainly had their chances last night (had more total bases), but routinely failed to capitalize. The highest scoring home team in the majors, they should rebound here. 

Colorado has not made the playoffs since 2009. Perhaps the pressure is getting to them as they've now dropped six of eight, which includes a losing road trip in San Diego and San Francisco. Facing a third straight non-playoff team, they have to begin to take advantage of this schedule. Milwaukee has a very favorable stretch coming up w/ the lowly Reds coming in for three games. Colorado will wrap up its regular season by hosting the Dodgers this weekend. One thing that is good from their perspective is that Milwaukee plays St. Louis, so those two could conceivably "knock each other out" (of contention). But the Rockies need to expand their lead in the next two days first. Miami's staff gives up plenty of runs already on the road (5.5 per game), so I expect the Rockies to score plenty here.

Pitching for the home team will be Tyler Anderson. Like most members of the starting rotation, he got off to a fast start in 2017. But then he hit a bit of a wall. Still, since returning from knee surgery, he's made B2B quality starts, including six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his lone start here at Coors. Opponents have hit just .173 against him in the two games (though admittedly both opponents were San Diego). Miami is just 12-19 vs. LH starters this year. They will counter w/ Jose Urena, who has a 17-9 TSR and has looked good in September. He is 9-1 in 12 road starts, but it's worth mentioning his ERA is 4.34. He's thrown 100+ pitches in each of his L4 starts, so I'm interested to see what he has left in the tank here. My guess is the Rockies get to him early. They average 6.0 rpg at home this season. 8* Colorado

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals failed miserably in their attempt to make up ground in the NL Wild Card race last night, losing 10-2 to the Cubs. While the loss ended up not hurting the Redbirds (Colorado also lost), they still have to also jump Milwaukee (who is a game up on them). As for the defending World Series Champs, reducing their magic number for clinching the NL Central to one. As discussed yday, the Cubs would love nothing more than to clinch the division title in their rival's ballpark. But, St. Louis obviously has a lot to play for here as well and will be sending Carlos Martinez to the hill tonight. The revenge angle from a prior sweep by the Cubs (last week at Wrigley) is obviously still in play here. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, I guess. 

I was really disappointed by the performance of Luke Weaver last night. He had been a major reason why the Cardinals have given up the fewest runs in the division this season. But I'm banking on Martinez not letting us down here. He's off a couple of sub-standard outings, yes, but overall it's still been a strong season for the right-hander. He has a 9-5 TSR in 14 starts here at Busch w/ a 3.18 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. The Cubs got to him at Wrigley 11 days ago, but that was after Martinez had posted a 3-0 TSR in his first three starts against them this year. One of them, here at home, saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings w/ 10 K's (Opening Day). He also beat tonight's counterpart, Jake Arrieta, back on 7.21. 

Arrieta made his return from the DL last week in Milwaukee and went five innings, allowing just one run. He only struck out two batters and had to be bailed out late by the offense though (extra inning win). Arrieta hasn't been as sharp compared to the previous two seasons this year. Now he has always seemed to have St. Louis' number, but it remains to be seen if he's the "same guy." He's thrown only 122 pitches since 8.29. Though the Cubs are well on their way to making the postseason, they've lost money in almost all setting this year. Meanwhile, St. Louis is still 42-33 at home, holding the opposition under 4.0 rpg. They need this one badly and I'll try them again. 8* St. Louis

6* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Without even playing, the Brewers "won" yday in the sense that both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. Those results leave the Brew Crew now just 1.5 games back of the Rockies for the 2nd Wild Card and one full game up on the Cards in the chase. After a tough series w/ the first place Cubs over the weekend, where they dropped three of four (two in extra innings), Milwaukee couldn't have asked for a better setup to start the week. They'll remain at home and host the lowly Reds. But don't expect the Brew Crew to take these games lightly. Not only are they trying for a playoff spot, but they have revenge on their minds here after being swept in Cincy earlier this month. The Reds, however, come into this series having dropped six in a row. 

Zach Davies is certainly a good choice to open the series for the home team. He's faced the Reds three times this season and has a 2.30 ERA. Even in the series in which Milwaukee got swept, Davis delivered 5 2/3 innings of two run ball, one of those runs allowed being unearned. His hard-luck continued his last time out where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP against the Cubs, but that was one of the games the Brewers blew late and ended up losing. Twice in his L3 starts, Davies has "stood tall" against the Cubs, also beating them back on 9.10 by allowing just one run in 7 IP. Here, he'll be facing an offense that's scored only 22 runs during its six game slide, all of which took place at home. Given the Reds' road record this year is 27-47, I don't see them turning things around here. Price Cincy above +175 on the money line and their road record is just 2-11. 

The Reds have zilch to play for in the season's final week, so it should come as no shock to see them trying out a new starter in this spot. Deck McGuire makes his first big league start Tuesday night after four relief apperances. While his minor league numbers may look impressive, note that he came straight from Double-A, so this is quite the jump he's making here. He's also 28, so this is hardly a "prospect" at this point. The Reds are getting outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, one of the worst marks in all of MLB, so I just don't see them being competitive in this spot. A lot is on the line for the Brew Crew and I think they'll take advantage. 6* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. Oakland certainly made me look foolish over the weekend, sweeping Texas for the seccond time in less than a month. They've now won a season-best seven in a row and enter this series hoping the revenge angle plays out better for them than it did for Texas over the weekend. I played against this A's team in each of the last three games (cashing once - on the run line) as I'm a firm believer in taking a team playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep. It didn't pan out, but I'm obviously "doubling down" on the strategy here tonight as all three teams I'm taking in this 3-game report are in that very situation. Here, I'll take the safe rout and say the A's do no worse than a one-run loss.

Seattle has played its way right out of Wild Card contention by dropping eight of its last nine games. They were officially eliminated after yday's 4-2 loss to Cleveland. While they did actually take a game from the Indians over the weekend (Friday), prior to that, they had been swept (at home) by the same Texas team that Oakland just dominated. I expect morale to be pretty low for the Mariners this final week of the season. The reality is that they were pretty fortunate to even find themselves in playoff contention. It was owed to a still MLB-best 26-13 record in one-run games. So we're covering ourselves by taking the run line in this one. But the bottom line is that the M's are probably due to drop a couple of one-run games this final week. Oakland, while having nothing to play for here either, is at least playing loose and well. Late season callups have led to a much-needed infusion of youth and the club is 14-3 its L17 games overall.

There was a time when I'd never consider fading Felix Hernandez. But the Seattle starter is no longer "King" as an injury-plagued season has left him w/ a 5-5 record in 15 starts (8-7 TSR), a 4.57 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. Due to injury, his last three starts have actually all come against Texas. He finished w/ a 7.30 ERA in those three outings, two of which took place since he returned from the DL. The last one saw him last only 3 1/3 innings and he allowed six runs. Strikeout numbers are way down for Hernandez this year. During their seven-game win streak, the A's have allowed just 2.6 runs per game (opponents batting only .225). Contrast this w/ Seattle averaging only 2.7 rpg its L7 games (.227 BA). Daniel Gossett is hardly Oakland's top starter and in fact, the team was lucky to escape a winner in his last start thanks to Gossett allowing six runs (were facing Detroit). But prior to that, Gossett had been pitching well and I'll call for a bounce back start here. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I'm taking the Cardinals today, but the team that they are chasing finds itself in a similar position as the Rockies return home from their own disappointing road trip (went 2-4 against the Padres and Giants). Their lead over Milwaukee is down to a precarious two games for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, though it was just one before yday's results. I like them to preserve their edge over the Brew Crew and Cards tonight w/ a very favorable matchup against the Marlins. Miami has zero to play for in the final week of the season as Sunday's loss assured them of a sub-.500 campaign. Tonight is one year to the day that we tragically lost Jose Fernandez, but emotion alone will not be able to carry the Marlins in this one.

Any discussion of the Rockies at home has to start and end with how their offense increases exponentially here at Coors Field. They lead the league (again) w/ an average of 6.0 rpg scored at home. That's a full two more runs per game than what they average on the road. I see them having little difficulty scoring tonight off Odrisamer Despaigne, whose two previous road starts have not gone well at all (8.63 ERA, 2.278 WHIP). Despaigne only became a full-fledged member of the Miami rotation late last month. He has more walks (13) than strikeouts (10) during that time, which is never a good sign. Lefties are batting .306 against him this season w/ an .834 OPS. The Marlins already allow 5.5 rpg on the road and this is simply not the venue for that number to start going down.

The Rockies also have revenge here as Miami swept them last month, the lone time these two teams have met previously this season. (By the way, both of these franchises entered the league in 1993). Miami's offense just scored a ton in Arizona over the weekend (25 runs in three games), but was limited to only two on Sunday. I'm hoping Tyler Chatwood can continue his current September pace, which has seen him make four starts and not allow more than 3 ER in any of them. He has a 1.83 ERA in September and was unbeaten before a hard-luck loss in San Francisco last Wednesday (Rockies shut out). I look for Chatwood to get plenty of support tonight, however, as the Colorado offense should "wake back up" upon its return home (regardless if Nolan Arenado plays or not). A lot is on the line for them here. 8* Colorado

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It's desperation time for the Cardinals, who return home from a nine-game trip (went 4-5) down 2.5 games to Colorado in the chase for the final available playoff spot in the National League. They are also competing w/ Milwaukee, who leads them by one-half game. The Cubs come in looking to clinch the NL Central here and have made it no secret that they'd love to accomplish the feat on their rival's field. "We intend to clinch there. For a lot of the guys that have been around here for a long time, it's going to be very satisfying," said Ben Zobrist. The Cubs have certainly had the Cards' number here in 2017, going 11-4 in 15 head to head matchups, including a three-game sweep at Wrigley just over a week ago. But their second straight division pennant will have to wait as St. Louis obviously has something to play for here as well and has a sizable edge in starting pitching in this one. 

The Redbirds' pitching has actually been quite good this year. In fact, they've allowed fewer runs than the Cubs this season and the 4th fewest overall in the Senior Circuit (three playoff teams ahead of them). Monday starter Luke Weaver has played a significant role in that. He has a 7-1 team start record and since a somewhat shaky debut back on 7.27, he's been lights out. The Cards have won each of the last seven times he has pitched w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer everytime. His ERA and WHIP during this time are 1.69 and 0.937. His KW ratio is 57-6! The Cubs have yet to see him to the point, which is a disadvantage for them. Over the L7 games, the Cubs offense is averaging only 3.6 rpg and they were a little lucky over the weekend in Milwaukee as two of their three wins required extra innings. 

The Cardinals' returning home is a big deal as they're a lot better at Busch. Note the 42-32 home record as they are limiting opponents to just 3.9 rpg here. The Cubs, off a 5-0 shutout win on Sunday, are making their final stop on a nine-game road trip that's taken them to both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. Only 3-3 off a shutout win this year, the Cubs have lost money in virtually all setting in '17, including on the road (-6.3 units). They'll have the struggling Jon Lester on the mound Monday. Lester was rocked for seven runs in just 4 1/3 IP his last time out (at Tampa Bay) and in general, has not pitched well of late. He has a 6.81 ERA and 1.766 WHIP his L7 starts. The WHIP is 1.837 in the last three and his ERA is 5.11 since the All-Star Break. The revenge-minded Cards need this one BAD. 8* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Welcome to the final week of the MLB regular season where you can find lines such as this one. Washington has already clinched the NL East and almost certainly will be matched up against the Cubs in the Division Series. That means they have little to play for the rest of the way. Of course, the same holds true for the last place Phillies, but they've actually played better than their record shows this season. Maybe it's not much of a difference but, based on run differential, they "should" have 66 wins (they have 62). They'll have their best pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Aaron Nola, and I view that as the difference in this series opener. Meanwhile, the Nats are sending out A.J. Cole to see what he's got. Big pitching mismatch for the home team here.

Nola has been sharp of late and the Phillies have won each of his last two starts. The last one saw him go seven innings and allow just two runs and five hits against the the Dodgers. That was a nice win as +145 money line underdogs. That followed a showing against Miami where he allowed only one run on four hits, again in seven innings, with 11 K's. Both starts came at home. He did face the Nats earlier this month, in D.C., and pitched well there too, giving up just three runs (two earned) w/ 8 K's. But the Phils came up short in that one, 4-3. But facing them at home now is a big advantage as after those L2 starts, Nola is 9-4 in 13 starts at Citizens Bank Park this season. His ERA and WHIP are 2.98 and 1.027 respectively. Tonight will be Nola's final start of '17, so expect him to pitch well.

Cole will be making just his 8th start of the year for the Nats. Six of the previous seven have come since August 2nd, but he's been used in the starter's role only sparingly of late w/ just three starts since 8.13. The last one saw him face the Dodgers and he lasted only five innings in a 3-2 loss. That was back on 9.16. I'm just not high on him here given that he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.552 WHIP overall this year. Yes, Bryce Harper has been activated for this game, but it's going to take awhile for him to come around. Normally, I might be a little leery of endorsing the Phillies in this situation, but the Nats really do have nothing to play for right now, thus I'll lean on the rather sizable starting pitching edge for the home team. 10* Philadelphia

10* Texas (4:05 ET): Well, this is "it" for the Rangers. We know that it's their final chance to avoid what would be a second sweep at the hands of the division rival A's, in less than a month's time. Furthermore, after losing the last two days (1-0 last night), their Wild Card hopes are now dwindling as well. Minnesota won again yday, so that means the Rangers are 4.5 games back w/ only eight more to play. I'm still a believer in the revenge angle though and not a believer in Oakland, whose current six-game win streak happens to be their longest of the entire season. As I said yday, there's an irony here w/ this Texas team as their run differential this year (+20) is greater than last year's (+8) when they won 95 games and homefield advantage in the American League playoffs! They did still cash for me on the run line yday, but today I'll call for an "outright" win.

The Rangers have scored only one run off A's pitching in two games, so that's something that clearly needs to change Sunday. Perhaps facing the struggling Jharel Cotton will help. Today's starter for the A's comes in w a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's obviously not good, yet the A's have still managed to win the last two times he's taken the mound, as +155 and +170 dogs against Houston and Boston respectively. But at home this year, Cotton hasn't been very good w/ a 7.66 ERA and 1.608 WHIP. These are obviously some pretty bad numbers we're talking about here. For the year, the ERA is 5.88 and the WHIP is 1.484. Like I said earlier, the current A's win streak is also the longest of the season. This is a team that has spent most of the year at the bottom of the American League standings. While I'll tip my cap for what they've done the L2 days, note the other four victories came against the Phillies and Tigers. 

Martin Perez just might be the right guy to have on the mound today for Texas. He comes in having gone 7-1 w/ a 3.14 ERA his L9 outings (8-1 TSR). Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in a revenge spot against the Mariners. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. Oakland is only 17-24 against southpaw starters in 2017. Bottom line is that this is a MUST win for the road team. That doesn't necessarily mean they HAVE to win, but I think they WILL. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Pirates at +1.5. The Cardinals "stole" one last night, rallying for two runs in the top of the ninth and prevailed 4-3. But I was still able to cash as I had the Bucs on the RL. The revenge angle is still in play here (Pit swept in StL earlier this month) though, so I'm playing Saturday's matchup the same way I did Friday's. It was an error that opened things up for the Cards last night and just the SECOND blown save of the season for Pirates' closer Felipe Rivero. Yes, these two NL Central rivals have been trending in opposite directions for some time now and St. Louis is trying to track down the final playoff spot in the National League. But they still have a losing road record and are playing their eighth straight game away from home. 

Compared to yday, I like tonight's pitching matchup even more from the Pirates' perspective. They'll give the ball to Gerrit Cole, the ace of the staff, who admittedly has been rather "feast or famine" as of late. But the last time Cole pitched here at PNC Park, he threw eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Cubs (hard luck 1-0 loss). His strikeout numbers remain solid, but the number of walks has been a concern of late. But lack of run support has been the primary issue for him. I'd expect that to change tonight. Cole allowed only three hits in his last start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 13 career starts vs. St. Louis and pitched well the last time he faced them (7.14), giving up only two runs and four hits. In fact, he's allowed 2 ER or less all three times he's seen this division opponent in 2017. 

Lance Lynn gets the baseball for the visitors and he too has had some issues of late. He's lasted a total of only nine innings his L2 starts and had control issues himself (four walks) his last time out. Overall, the Cards have lost six of the last seven times he's taken the mound. He has a 6-11 TSR on the road for the season. He has a 4.50 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Note that the Cards have played a total of 50 one-run games this season, third most in all of MLB. (They're just 22-28 in those games). Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Texas (10:05 ET): The Rangers have revenge here, as believe it or not, they got swept by the A's (here in Oakland) late last month. While Oakland has proven itself to be significantly better at home (than on the road), I don't see history repeating itself this go-around. Not w/ the Rangers desperately clinging to playoff hopes while the A's are simply relegated to playing out the string. Both teams enter on four-game win streaks w/ Texas sweeping Seattle and Oakland doing the same to Detroit to start the week. But all this has simply created a situation where there's now value on Texas, who has the 5th best run differential in the American League at +24. That's a better run diff than LY's team (+8) that won 95 games! Funny how regression works out sometimes, no? 

Though they swept Texas last month and are currently riding a four-game win streak, there's no denying that the A's have been one of the AL's worst teams in 2017. They've been outscored by 90 runs over the course of the season and have occupied last place in the West most of the year. Their 790 runs allowed are third most in all of baseball w/ only a couple of NL teams (Mets and Reds) having given up more. Kendall Graveman will toe the rubber this evening and while he's still unbeaten at home this year (4-0 in nine starts), I'm not about to start anointing him a Cy Young contender. The team is just 7-10 in his 17 starts overall this year. His last start, on 9.16 vs. Philadelphia, was cut short due to rain. Graveman was pretty fortunate to get away w/ only allowing one run when he faced the Rangers last month as he also allowed nine hits in 7 IP. His ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers is 4.57.

Texas enters the day 2.5 games back of Minnesota for that 2nd Wild Card. Six of their remaining nine games are against the A's, which is favorable. Prior to being swept by them last month, they'd gone 6-3 head to head in the season series. It's now down to a three-team race w/ them, the Twins and Angels. LA just got swept by Cleveland and is now in Houston, so their projection isn't looking so rosy. Nick Martinez is by no means Texas' best starter (probably the worst!), but like every other member of the rotation, he's turned a profit in 2017. His 1.039 WHIP his L3 starts says that his 0-3 TSR over the same time is misleading. He allowed only three runs on four hits (7 IP) when he squared off w/ Graveman and the A's last month. Texas desperately needs the win here. 8* Texas

10* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. I have St. Louis ranked just above both Milwaukee and Colorado in my own power rankings (#9 overall). Unfortunately for the Redbirds though; they trail both in the chase for the 2nd NL Wild Card. However, that gap is shrinking as they're only 0.5 games back of the Brew Crew (who lost last night) and 1.5 games back of Colorado (who also lost last night). So don't rule out St. Louis to the playoffs just yet. However, last time they faced the Pirates, they swept them. You know what that means. I'll be on the other side here as it's become increasingly difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row. Just to be "safe," I'll grab the added insurance that the RL provides. 

That aforementioned sweep took place two weeks ago in St. Louis. The Pirates totaled just four runs in the three games, but their hitters should fare far better at home this weekend. The Cards still have a losing road record (38-40) even after sweeping lowly Cincinnati to start the week. That includes just a .500 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range (7-7). Friday starter Michael Wacha was great when he faced the Bucs at home on 9.10, shutting them out for eight innings. But the road has been a different story for Wacha as he owns a 5.07 ERA and 1.535 WHIP. Last time out, on the road, he was far less effective as he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP and there were major control issues w/ five walks. The Cards lost that game, 4-1 to the Cubs. 

Ivan Nova will again face off w/ Wacha here. Nova was the losing pitcher back on 9.10. But he was better in his last start, giving up just two runs on three hits, even though the Bucs still lost that one. Once again, the home vs. road splits w/ these teams and pitchers becomes vital as Nova has a 9-2 TSR at PNC Park this year, not to mention a 2.87 ERA and 1.159 WHIP. The Pirates also have the advantage here of having had Thursday off while St. Louis was wrapping things up in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has been absolutely dreadful on the road this year, but has a winning record at home. They'd dropped 12 of 13 overall before a walkoff win over Milwaukee (helped St. Louis!) Wednesday night, so you have to think at least a minor turnaround is imminent. I look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. 10* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

10* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): This is a very big series, rife w/ playoff implications. The Cubs, who "sleepwalked" through the 1st half of the season, now seem "safe" as a probable playoff entrant as they lead the division by 3.5 games and have a better record than the second place Wild Card team (Colorado). That's thanks to a seven-game win streak, which ended yday, but still the defending World Series Champs appear to be in good shape heading into what is a revenge spot vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew are attempting to chase down either the Cubs or the Rockies (1 gm back of Wild Card), but suffered their own loss yday, in walk-off fashion no less. I'm sure the Cubs remember getting swept at Wrigley by the Brewers earlier this month and they'll be eager to return the favor. 

Tonight's series opener marks the return of Jake Arrieta to the Cubs' rotation. The former Cy Young winner last pitched on September 4th when he tweaked his hamstring in a disastrous 12-0 loss to the Pirates. But I'm not concerned as he reportedly checked out well in a bullpen session Tuesday and has posted a 1.98 ERA since the All-Star Break. Arrieta missed the last series w/ the Brewers, but is 2-0 against them in '17, having allowed just 3 ER in 13 IP w/ 16 strikeouts. After being swept at home by Milwaukee, the Cubs rattled off those seven straight victories before Jon Lester simply "did not have it" last night and they lost 8-1 to the Rays. But even after scoring just three runs in two games at Tropicana Field, the Cubs' offense has still managed to average over 7.0 rpg since that aforementioned sweep. 

Zach Davies will get the nod here for Milwaukee. Though he has an 8-6 team start record here, he has not pitched particularly well at home this season as he has a 5.67 ERA and 1.588 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed six runs to Miami (in just four innings) and remember that was here at Miller Park due to Hurricane Irma. That's one of just three losses for the team in the L12 games as they've won three straight three times, only to be followed by a loss every time. Last night's loss to Pittsburgh in the final at-bat was certainly discouraging and I just don't see this as a playoff team. If anyone is to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card, I think it would be St. Louis, not Milwaukee. The fact that Davies has been the Brew Crew's most profitable starter to bet on this season (+8.75 units) speaks volumes considering the mediocre 3.99 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Davies did allow only one run in seven innings when he faced the Cubs in that sweep earlier this month, but should consider himself fortunate as he allowed seven hits. The Cubs are 23-11 this season as ML road favorites of -125 to -175 (71-29 L3 seasons!) while Milwaukee is 4-7 in that same range as a home dog (19-36 L3 seasons). So this is a "favorable" price we're getting on the Cubbies here. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line LA Angels (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. What shaped up as a vital series for the home team has turned into a blown opportunity, at least thus far. Minnesota, who leads the Angels by 1.5 games in the chase for the AL's 2nd Wild Card, was just swept by the Yankees. However, the Halos have been unable to make up any ground during this time due to the unfortunate draw of playing Cleveland (who's 26-1 L27 games!) this week. Still, I thought this series set up well for LA as they avoid both of the Indians' top two pitchers, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. They've certainly competed, even cashing on the RL for me last night, but yet to come away w/ a victory. Not sure if that'll change after this afternoon, but the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels still have revenge from a prior sweep by the Indians, back in July. Not only are they 0-5 against the Tribe in 2017, but they are 1-11 against them since the start of last season (3-15 L3 seasons). My view has always been that it's increasingly difficult in today's game to sweep the same opponent two straight times. So this is the Angels' last shot. It's interesting that after being bet to a small favorite and virtual pick 'em (sharp money!) the L2 days, the Halos almost certainly will close as a decided dog today. That's despite that this spot will have them sending their best pitcher to the mound, that being Parker Bridwell, who has a 15-2 TSR and is by far and away #1 in net units among all starting pitchers at +16.1 for the season. Here at home, Bridwell threw six shutout innings in his last start, allowing only three hits as the Angels beat Cole Hamels and the Rangers, 2-0. 

All of Cleveland's starters have been lights out during this 26-1 run of theirs, but today will see Danny Salazar make just his second start since the streak began. The first try, which took place back on Sept 5, did not go so well. He lasted all of two-thirds of an inning and gave up four runs. Cleveland still managed to come back and win, 9-4, helped by the fact they were facing the sorry White Sox. But still, Salazar (who has been working out of the bullpen lately) is definitely on "thin ice" and probably not long for the starter's role come playoff time. He was taken out of the rotation for a reason and that's he simply had not been that effective this year. He has a 5.57 ERA and 1.631 WHIP on the road this year. Again, it's interesting to note that Cleveland's historic run pretty much began right after Salazar was removed from the rotation. The Angels need this game badly, much more than the Indians, and I have to believe their offense (Mike Trout specifically) is due to get back on track. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. Make it 25 wins in the last 26 games for Cleveland, who prevailed 6-3 in Tuesday's series opener. I got that one wrong as did the "sharp money," which was on the Angels as well. As good as the Indians have been though, they are "due" to slow down sooner or later and this remains a very critical series for their opponent. The Halos still trail Minnesota (who also lost last night) by 1.5 games for the second Wild Card in the American League. Last night's loss was a blown opportunity to make up ground, but I still like the way this series sets up for the home team. They avoid Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco plus they have revenge for a prior series sweep (back in July). Given how well the Tribe has played, however, the run line seems like a more prudent move. 

Though they were outhit by a 2:1 margin, the Angels were able to stay close for eight innings last night. They blew a golden opportunity in the fifth when they had runners at the corners, and nobody out, but only got one runner home. It was a 3-2 game entering the ninth, but that's when Cleveland broke loose for three runs, effectively putting the game out of reach. Incredibly, the Angels are now 1-10 the L2 seasons vs. Cleveland including 0-4 in '17 (3-14 L3 seasons!). But today, they draw the "weak link" of the Indians' rotation, that being Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ a 5.04 ERA. Since returning to the rotation earlier this month, Tomlin has yet to go six full innings in any of his three starts. The team is only 11-12 w/ him on the mound this year, putting them down -6.35 units. Kluber, Carraso and Mike Clevinger have all turned profits this season, so this is the Angels' best shot - on paper - at beating Cleveland. Really, given the pitchers that they faced, tonight's line makes no sense compared to yday.

The Angels have played more one-run games (46) than any other team in the American League, so that's another reason to like the RL in this situation. They are also 42-31 off a loss this season and have dropped three in a row only three times since being swept by Cleveland in that late July series. Having Ricky Nolasco, their least profitable pitcher, on the hill may seem problematic here. But he pitched well last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits to Houston. The Angels still lost mind you, 5-2, but it was still a positive sign to see Nolasco pitch well. He allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 IP against Cleveland two months ago, another encouraging sign. The Indians are going to drop a game in the series (I feel it!), so why not tonight? 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Curiously, the Reds have given the Cardinals plenty of trouble here in 2017, winning 9 of the 17 head to head matchups. But the tide has started to turn w/ the Cards winning three of four over the last week, including a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, 8-7. Seeing as Cincy twice blew a lead last night (including 4-0 after three innings), you have to figure they also blew their best shot at winning a game in this series. It's not like the home team has much to play for here. As for the Redbirds, this series is huge as they face not only a six-game deficit in the division, but a 2.5 game one for the second NL Wild Card. Considering they'll send out a pitcher (Luke Weaver) that just shut out the Reds six days ago, you have to like their chances tonight. 

Weaver has been huge for the Cardinals' rotation. He made his 2017 debut back on 7.27 in Arizona. It was a bit of a rocky showing as he surrendered four runs in five innings and St. Louis lost 4-0. But since then, he's been light's out. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in six straight starts, all team wins. Three times, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run. Last time out, it was just one of the unearned variety as he allowed only two hits in 6 IP against this same opponent. We're talking about a pitcher w/ a sub-1.00 WHIP here and in his L3 starts, the ERA is 0.96. With Cincinnati batting just .222 its L7 games, I see no reason why Weaver shouldn't dominate yet again. You also have to like his 50-6 KW ratio during the six-game win streak.

The Reds are simply playing out the string and have given up the most runs in all of baseball. Here they start the appropriately named Rookie Davis, who is in fact a rookie! Davis has made five starts in 2017, but none since early May. Looking at his numbers, you can see why. He posted a 7.58 ERA and 2.211 WHIP. It takes a special kind of bad to find your way out of this Reds' starting rotation, but Davis managed to do just that. After spending the summer down in Louisville (Triple A), he was recalled once that season ended. He has made one appearance out of the bullpen and "true to form," gave up two runs in two innings. There's no Billy Hamilton in the Reds lineup right now and while he's not a great hitter, he can definitely affect a game on the basepaths. I just can't see Cincinnati giving a better effort than they did last night, which means another loss is on the horizon. 8* St. Louis

10* Oakland (1:10 ET): The Detroit Tigers are a really bad baseball team right now. To be fair, they were never really "good" at any point here in 2017, but lately things have REALLY nosedived as they've dropped 15 of 19 games here in September to fall to 27 games below .500 and they have the worst run differential (-124) in the entire American League. If that's not enough, they've even dropped two straight here at home to the A's, who came in w/ the worst road record in all of baseball. Yesterday was particularly soul-crushing as Oakland was able to rally back from a four-run deficit to take the game 9-8. The A's have had no issue scoring in this series (17 runs in two games), so facing a terrible pitcher like Anibal Sanchez, you have to like them to finish off the sweep this afternoon.

When handicapping the MLB card, I assign every starter a "score" as to reflect how I think they'll perform in the upcoming game. Here, Sanchez gets one of the lowest ones I've ever assigned. Sure, he has a 7-7 team start record, but his ERA and WHIP are 6.42 and 1.515 respectively. Lately, things have only gotten worse as in his L3 starts, those numbers are 7.59 and 1.968. Despite that, the Tigers have managed to win two of those three games, which is a major reason I'm looking to play against here. Any kind of sustained success w/ a pitcher of this caliber on the mound should be considered fortunate at best. Now, his last time out saw Sanchez give up only one run in 6 IP w/ a season-best 11 K's. But that was against the White Sox. It was also his best start of the entire year and thus is (highly) unlikely to be duplicated here. 

Oakland, meanwhile, has a red hot pitcher going today. Daniel Mengden has a 2.75 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all team wins. He is coming off a CG, two-hit shutout at Philadelphia last Friday. The A's may not be a good road team, but they actually own a winning record in day games this season. Their lineup should continue to take advantage of a Tigers' pitching staff that allows 5.5 runs per game at home this season. One hitter in particular to watch is rookie Matt Olson, who has homered in five consecutive games. Take it from me; Sanchez is very bad and must be played against here. 10* Oakland

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Cleveland has now won 24 of its last 25 games, an incredible achievement that has them a top the American League standings and currently listed as the favorite to win the World Series. Impressive as this stretch of baseball has been (and make no mistake about it, the Tribe have been very impressive), let's note that they've been beating up on a trio of bad teams - Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit - a lot during the streak. Those three teams have accounted for 17 of those 24 wins. They've faced just one playoff probable during the 24-1 run, that being the Yankees, who they did sweep (in NY). But now they are set to hit the West Coast for the next six games and I see a prime fade opportunity here against the Angels. There have been a couple of key indicators w/ the line that have confirmed my suspicion. 

The Angels enter Tuesday 1.5 games back of the Twins, who lost yday, for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Like the Indians, they've mostly been beating up on lesser opponents since the All-Star Break, but were swept in Cleveland back in late July. That makes this is a revenge spot. Starting tonight will be Tyler Skaggs, who has mediocre numbers in seven starts, but happens to also be coming off an absolute gem. In perhaps his strongest outing of the entire season, Skaggs tossed seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball against Houston, here at home last Wednesday. Skaggs did not face Cleveland in the previous series as he was still on the D.L. It should be noted that while they've continued to win, the Indians' offense has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past six games.

Mike Clevinger goes tonight for Cleveland. Playing against the likes of Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco is unwise right now, so a Clevinger start offers a rare spot to fade this red-hot ballclub. Isn't it telling that the Tribe, despite what they've done this month, come in as slight underdogs on the ML? Sure enough, Clevinger's worst start of the year came against the Angels as he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings. The offense bailed him out in an 11-7 win, but still we at least know the Halos are capable of getting to him. It would be unfair to label Clevinger the "weak link" in the Indians' rotation, but there's a good shot he won't be starting much in the playoffs. He's currently in the best stretch of his career (6-0 TSR L6 starts), but that's due to end. Cleveland is also probably "due" to start giving some back at the pay window as well. 10* LA Angels

6* Houston (8:10 ET): Believe it or not, the White Sox actually swept the Astros the last time they faced off, which was last month. Since the All-Star Break, the AL West leaders have been mediocre at best (31-29 overall), potentially costing themselves homefield advantage (Cleveland has passed them). But, things appeared to have "turned a corner" recently w/ Houston winning four straight coming into this week's rematch. They swept Seattle over the weekend, doing so in fairly dominant fashion. As for the White Sox, they have the worst overall record in the American League (60-89) even after winning six of nine (lost 12-0 on Sunday). They've been relegated to "playing out the string" and I don't see them beating the Astros this time now that they have to travel to Minute Maid Park. It's a high price on the favorite, but certainly justified. 

Over the L3 seasons, Houston is 41-12 when priced on the money line between -175 and -250 and at home. So history says this should be an easy one. Trailing the Indians by 1.5 games in the race for best record in the American League, this is a series the Astros probably need to sweep (Cleveland is in LA to face the Angels). They'd hoped Lance McCullers would be ready to start Monday's opener, but his arm fatigue issues have persisted, thus it will be Colin McHugh going instead. That's fine by me as McHugh has a 0.53 ERA in three home starts so far. He was rocked for seven runs (in 5 1/3 IP) the last series against Chicago, but since then has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all five starts, albeit not always going deep into games. But still, the White Sox are not a good road team (26-49 overall) and are in the bottom 10 in both runs scored and OBP. Sunday saw them come within one out of being no-hit by the Tigers' Matthew Boyd. 

The White Sox are just 2-5 after being shut out this year and 5-9 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. They're only 5-11 when taking the field after an off-day. So the trends don't favor them here nor do the odds. Can starter Lucas Giolito alone stem the tide? I think not. Giolito has pitched well in limited duty (five starts), but has also benefited from facing some of the game's worst offensive teams to this point. Houston happens to rank #1 in all of baseball in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! This won't be a fun time for the young starter as the Astros are also 72-36 this year when facing a right-handed starter. 6* Houston

10* Boston (7:05 ET): I realize that Baltimore is returning home here (where they are significantly better), but it's "all over but the shouting" here after a 2-8 trip that's left them four games below .500 and most importantly 5.5 games back of the Wild Card. A -60 YTD run differential pretty much confirms this is NOT a legit playoff contender. Furthermore, their 44-30 home record is a little misleading in the sense that they allow the same number of runs per game (4.9) as they score. Boston comes in still atop the AL East (three-game lead over the Yankees) and had a three-game losing streak snapped Sunday w/ a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. What puts them "over the hump" as a play for me today is they come in w/ revenge as the O's actually swept them at Fenway last month. That won't happen again. 

Doug Fister is off a rare poor outing for Boston as he gave up six runs in 4 IP last Wednesday against Oakland. That's more runs allowed than in his previous four starts combined! He comes in w/ a very nice 0.932 WHIP on the road this season, albeit that's only in four starts. Still though, Fister has proven himself to be very reliable as six of his last eight starts have been quality ones. That includes him allowing just two runs on five hits to Baltimore back on 8.27, a start that ended up as a 2-1 loss for the Red Sox. Another big key here is the Red Sox have shown themselves to be an excellent bounce-back team as their record off a loss is 41-23 this year. Offensively, they are top 10 in runs scored, batting average and OBP.

Baltimore just isn't good enough on the runs allowed side of the ledger to realistically contend. They are 27th in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average and are tied for 26th in quality starts. Dylan Bundy has arguably been their best starter in 2017 and will go Monday. Like Fister, he's pitched well of late, save for one start. (Bundy's bad one came here at home, two starts ago, vs. the Yankees). This will actually be Bundy's fifth time facing the Red Sox in 2017. So far, he's had mixed results (2-2 TSR) even though he's never allowed more than 2 ER (surprising). But the Red Sox hitters should definitely be familiar w/ him at this point and don't be surprised when they hit a couple of home runs tonight, something that has hurt Bundy at times this year. Eight different times, Bundy has allowed multiple home runs. For the sake of comparison, that's happened to Fister only ONE time this season and it was in his third start. 10* Boston

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): As it stands now, this would be your American League Wild Card Game. In a one-game playoff, I'd figure the Yankees would be bigger favorites on the money line than they are here. There's just no two ways around it; they are a superior ballclub compared to the Twins in virtually every conceivable way. While Minnesota has barely outscored its opponents this year (+9), the Yanks hold the second best run differential in all of MLB at +174, trailing only the Indians (+227)! There was some overnight line movement that triggered this play as well as the ML went up despite the majorty of tickets coming in on the underdog. That tells me smart money likes the home team here and so do I. 

Minnesota's transformation from a 100+ loss team last year to a playoff contender in '17 is pretty shocking. Their competition for the last playoff spot is dropping like flies as it seems it will come down to them and the Angels. They beat Toronto yday 13-7 and will have their top pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Ervin Santana.  That all sounds nice, but Santana has not fared well in his career vs. the Yankees. He has a 5.78 ERA in 19 starts, though none of them have come this year. The problems have really come here in the Bronx and don't figure to subside here as the pinstripe-clad lineup he'll face tonight is among the best in baseball. Against Baltimore over the weekend, the Yankees scored 34 runs (in four games) and slugged 12 home runs. They are now 2nd in MLB in runs scored and also in the top eight in batting average, OBP and slugging. 

Minnesota has swung the bats well recently too; tying a franchise record w/ at least one HR in 16 consecutive contests. But they're up against a team that's tied for the best home run differential in all of baseball. The Yankees score 5.6 rpg here at home, tied for third most in all of baseball and obviously Colorado is one of the two teams ahead of them. Looking at the other side of the ledger, the Yankees are doing well too as they are top five in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average. Jaime Garcia will toe the rubber tonight. He's actually winless in six starts since coming over to the team, but that's a little misleading as he's given up 3 ER or fewer five straight times and the Yankees have won three of those games (one loss to Cleveland). The Yanks had won seven of eight prior to Sunday's loss to Baltimore and I don't see them slowing down in this series. 8* NY Yankees

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Don't tell the Nationals that the Dodgers are having an awful September as LA has come to the Nation's Capital and taken the first two of a three-game set between division leaders. After infamously losing 15 of 16 games, Dodger Blue has now won four straight and thanks to what they've done in this series, it's looking more and more like the will end up w/ home field advantage in the National League playoff draw. As for Washington, their destiny is likely the 2nd seed as they've already wrapped up the East. It should be noted that the Dodgers have lucked out somewhat to this point in the series as they've avoided both Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg, the Nats' two best pitchers. That changes tonight, however, as they face the latter. 

Strasburg has been the definition of lights out recently. Well, that's putting things midly. For four consecutive starts he has not allowed a single run. His scoreless streak currently stands at 34 innings. Perhaps the most impressive thing regarding Strasburg this season has been him not giving up many home runs. In 156 2/3 IP this year, he's allowed only 13, none in the last four starts. That's the fewest in all of baseball. Last time out, he was able to hold Rhys Hoskins w/o a long ball, the only time in a six-game stretch the Phillies' rookie didn't homer. The Dodgers lineup has fared no better against Strasburg in the past, owning a collective .183 (22 for 120) batting average when facing him. In six career starts vs. LA, Strasburg has a 2.82 ERA, having allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Earlier this year, he held them to two runs (one earned) in a hard-luck 2-1 loss opposite Clayton Kershaw. 

It won't be Kershaw pitching here for the Dodgers though. Instead it will Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu's recent numbers are skewed by one bad outing at Arizona on 8.30 when he allowed six runs in four innings. He has not pitched since 9.5 as his spot in the rotation wa simply skipped. That doesn't speak too well to the team's confidence in him. Ryu is just 5-7 in 21 starts this year (11-10 TSR), so he really hasn't shared in the team's overwhelming success. Earlier this year, Ryu lost his first and only career start against the Nationals. Bottom line is that w/ Strasburg pitching, this is an incredible price on the Nats at home, especially considering they're looking to avoid being swept. Strasburg gets the job done yet again. 10* Washington

8* Run Line San Francisco (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Giants at +1.5. Clearly, it has not been a good season for the team by the Bay. But they cashed for me yesterday on the run line in a 3-2 loss. Given that they were facing Robbie Ray, the Giants getting the cash in any manner is somewhat impressive. Arizona has now won 19 of its last 24 games, including eight straight on the road. The Giants still have revenge here from a prior sweep that took place at Chase Field. Despite what the D'backs have done lately, they are a pretty mediocre road team (just 7-7 as ML fave of -125 to -175), largely due to a rather sizable decrease in offensive production (5.6 rpg at home, only 4.3 away). They scored only three runs last night and w/ what certainly appears to be a pitcher's duel on tap for tonight, taking the +1.5 is the way to go. 

Arizona almost certainly will be the host team for the NL Wild Card Game. Given what I just stated about the offense's home vs. road splits, that's a good thing for them. The pitcher that will most likely start that Wild Card Game is Zack Greinke, who gets the nod tonight. Greinke has always seemed to pitch well here at AT&T Park as in six starts, he's 4-0 w/ a 1.66 ERA. Also, he comes in w/ a 2.04 ERA his L4 starts overall. But, somewhat true to his team's form, his numbers on the road aren't nearly as strong this year. In 12 road starts this year, Greinke is only 3-5 (6-6 TSR) w/ a 4.00 ERA and 1.278. He pitched well at Dodgers Stadium on 9.5, but that's also the top park in baseball for run suppression. Greinke had struggled in his two previous road starts, at Minnesota and Chicago, giving up 11 runs in just 10 innings of work.

Madison Bumgarner has had a very unfortunate season, both on and off the field. One could make the arguement that his dirtbike accident back in April was a harbinger of things to come for the team in this awful 2017 season. But despite some recent struggles and a downright shocking 3-12 TSR, Bumgarner has generally continued to pitch well. Yes, he is 0-3 w/ a 6.50 ERA and 1.333 WHIP his L3 starts. But he's allowed 3 ER or less in 7 of 11 starts since coming back from injurty. He also has a 2.47 ERA his L7 starts vs. the D'backs. Despite that strong ERA, Bumgarner has a hard-luck 0-3 TSR against them in 2017, all three losses coming by one run! In 21 IP against them, he's allowed just 7 ER (no more than 3 in any one start) and has 25 K's against just three walks. Incredibly, Bumgarner has an 0-5 TSR in one run games and an 0-8 TSR in the division. He's absolutely due here and I see the Giants doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)