10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): These teams did go Over the total yesterday, but that was all Toronto, who put up 11 runs in a commanding victory. I was cool with that as the Blue Jays -1.5 (run line) was my top MLB play of the day. I know that I touted the offense in yday’s analysis and all that I said certainly rang true. The Jays are now 14-4 their last 18 games and have scored six or more runs in all but one of those wins. Yes, we have two starters that look shaky here. But I’m going with the Under today as I don’t think Toronto will score as many runs as they did Monday. Baltimore is not much of a threat to put a “crooked number” on the board. 

Over the last seven games, Blue Jays’ pitching has allowed fewer than two runs per game. They have three shutouts and two other games where they allowed just a single run. Opponents are batting just .191 and have scored 13 runs total, eight of those coming in one game by KC. Yusei Kikuchi will start Tuesday’s game for Toronto. He was the starter in that game where the Royals scored eight runs and lasted only two-thirds of an inning. But look at May when Kikuchi allowed 2 ER or less in all five starts. Baltimore is only putting up 3.7 runs per game on the road. They’ve had five or fewer hits in five of the last nine games overall. 

Meanwhile, it’s up to Jordan Lyles to try and slow down this Toronto offense. Recent numbers don’t look good for Lyles and, incredibly, the Blue Jays have scored 10 or more runs in six of their last seven games vs. the Orioles, going back to last season. But I think Lyles will surprise in this spot. He had a solid start to 2022, even beating the Yankees by holding them to just one run, and he’s given up 3 ER or less in 7 of his 12 starts. The Blue Jays probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth either, so that’s three less outs to worry about. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

7* Arizona (9:40 ET): These teams just played a four-game series last week, in Cincinnati, and both emerged with two victories. The Reds won the first two, but the D’backs bounced back to earn the series split by winning 7-0 and 5-4. That former result featured the same starting pitching matchup as we have today, Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Mike Minor for Arizona. Kelly had one of his best outings of the season to date, tossing six shutout innings of one-hit ball. Minor, who gave up three runs in 4 ⅓ IP, has now allowed a total of five home runs in his two starts. Look for the same result as last week. 

Before yesterday, Arizona had only one other win in June besides the two over the Reds. But then they clobbered the Phillies on Sunday, 13-1, snapping their nine-game win streak in shocking fashion. That should provide some much needed “momentum” heading into this series where they’ll face a Reds team that had lost four in a row before a 7-6 win Sunday over St. Louis. The D’backs haven’t been great so far here at Chase Field, but the Reds have been downright dreadful on the road where they are 9-22 and being outscored by 2.1 runs per game. The Reds are also 14-28 in games vs. right-handed starters.

Kelly, a righty, comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 12 starts. Those are solid numbers and his ERA is lower here at home. He’s only had one outing all year where he gave up more than three earned runs and that came against the Dodgers. For Cincy, Minor not only lost to Arizona last week, but also to a terrible Washington club 10 days ago. He allowed five runs (in just four innings) and three homers in that start.  7* Arizona

9* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Blue Jays at -1.5. Suffice to say, Toronto is now living up to its preseason hype as the team has taken 12 of its last 16 games to climb into the lead in the AL Wild Card race. That may not be as lofty a position as was expected from them, but no one expected the Yankees to be this good. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the division, you have Baltimore, who occupies last place and figures to remain there the rest of the way. For this series opener, I don’t see the Jays having much trouble putting up runs or winning big. 

Over the past two weeks, Toronto has averaged 6.8 runs per game while batting a collective .310. After a rare low-scoring effort on Saturday (lost 3-1), they got on back on track yesterday with a 6-0 win in Detroit. That was their third shutout win by more than six runs in the last six games and their fourth win by at least six runs during that same stretch. Here in June, all seven of the team’s wins have been by four runs or greater. Orioles’ starter Kyle Bradish has really struggled since his big league debut on 4/29, posting a 6.53 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in eight starts. I have no idea how the O’s have managed to win each of Bradish’s last three starts with him posting an 8.17 ERA and 2.18 WHIP during that time. I can’t see Bradish pitching well today, against a top five offense. 

So we know that Toronto is going to score some runs tonight, but what about preventing them? Expect starter Alek Manoah to take care of business as he checks in with a 1.81 ERA and 0.962 WHIP. Last time out, Manoah tossed six shutout innings and the Blue Jays ended up winning 7-0 over KC. The team is 4-0 in Manoah’s last four starts, winning the last two by a combined 12 runs. Manoah is now 16-3 his L19 decisions. 9* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* LA Angels (7:08 ET): After a mystifying 14-game losing streak, the Angels have won two of three. They beat the Mets last night, 11-6, in what was their highest scoring effort in a month. Moving forward, I think the Angels will be fine. They are a better than average team and have a run differential comparable to the 34-25 Rays. Of course, the Mets have one of the best run differentials in all of baseball (3rd best), but their lead in the NL East is shrinking due to both the Braves and Phillies being red-hot at the moment. At the end of the day, the Angels are likely to start stringing some wins together while there are some obvious signs that the Mets may regress a bit. 

Patrick Sandoval gets the starting nod tonight for LA. The team has won six of his nine starts so far and Sandoval has a 2.81 ERA. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start, which was against a Toronto team that was red-hot at the time. The Mets are the second-highest scoring team in baseball so far (behind only the Dodgers), but I don’t see them continuing to average 5.0 runs per game. Also, the Mets have been somewhat fortunate to go 5-0 in extra inning games. Plus they’ve had several other come from behind wins. They are just 5-5 L10 games. 

But I think the player to watch in this game is the Angels’ Mike Trout. He recently suffered through a career-worst 0 for 26 slump and missed Friday’s series opener with an injury. However, in his return to the lineup, he hit a pair of home runs last night and went 3 for 4 at the plate overall. It’s obviously just a matter of time before Trout gets hot again. Look for him to deliver again tonight facing Taijuan Walker, who he is 10 for 16 lifetime against with three home runs and a triple. Recently, Walker has shown signs of regression with a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP his L3 starts. 10* LA Angels

8* Over A’s/Guardians (11:35 AM ET): A couple streaks came to an end yesterday as the A’s beat the Guardians 10-5. First off, it was Oakland’s first win over Cleveland this year in six tries. Secondly, the A’s also snapped what had been a 10-game losing streak overall. They are in rough shape so far, last in the AL West, and with a 21-40 record they seem likely to stay there. Cleveland is trying to catch Minnesota in the Central (four games back) and having a comparable run differential (to the Twins) seems like a sign that this particular race will tighten. But I’m focused on the total in this early Sunday matchup. 

The Over is 6-2-1 in all Oakland games this month. Only twice has their pitching staff surrendered fewer than five runs. In this series, two of the three games have gone Over and we’ve seen an average of 10.7 runs per game scored. Yesterday was obviously the highest of the bunch as the A’s exploded for 10 runs to snap their long losing streak. Now, for most of that game, it appeared that the A’s were heading to another loss. They trailed 5-2 entering the seventh, but got to the Cleveland bullpen and I’m projecting there to be a “carryover” type effect for Sunday. The Over has hit five of the last six times the A’s have played a fourth game in a series.

Cleveland will start Cal Quantrill in this game. He has decent numbers, but is likely to regress moving forward according to a number of advanced metrics (such as xwOBA, xBA and xSLG). There have been a total of 20 runs scored in Quantrill’s previous two outings. Oakland is going with Cole Irvin, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.348 WHIP on the road this season. Some of the same advanced metrics also predict Irvin is likely to continue to struggle moving forward, and the A’s bullpen has been one of the worst in all of baseball this season. The Over is 4-1-1 in Cleveland’s last six home games vs. a lefty starter. 8* Over A’s/Guardians

10* Under Pirates/Braves (4:10 ET): These teams continue to trend in opposite directions as the Braves have now won nine in a row while the Pirates have dropped four in a row. Atlanta has needed to stay hot as division rival Philadelphia has won eight in a row and the battle for second in the NL East is really starting to heat up. As for the Pirates, I have them rated as one of the worst teams in all of baseball right now with a -83 run differential. It seems quite fortunate that they are ahead of both the Cubs and Reds in the NL Central. Looking ahead, the rest of this series should go Atlanta’s way.

But the money line is obviously too high to play the Braves on Saturday, and I’m a little “gun-shy” about forecasting a win by more than one run. So let’s look at the total. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in six consecutive games and didn’t cross the plate until the eighth inning yesterday. So this should be a solid outing from the Braves’ Charlie Morton, who aims to keep the string of solid Braves’ pitching performances alive. Six times in the nine game win streak, Atlanta has allowed two runs or less. Morton has struggled a bit recently (allowing 4 ER in three consecutive starts), but also has much better numbers at home this year. 

Pittsburgh is going with Zach Thompson and he will at least give the team a “fighting chance” on Sunday. That’s because Thompson has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. He threw five shutout innings against Arizona on Sunday and got the win as the Pirates eventually prevailed 3-0. But one of Thompson’s big issues is that he doesn’t get much run support as the team has failed to score more than three runs in 8 of his 10 starts overall. The good news though is Atlanta is curiously only averaging 3.5 rpg when facing a right-handed starter. Look for another low-scoring ballgame at Truist Park today. 10* Under Pirates/Braves

9* Run Line Philadelphia (4:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Phillies -1.5. This team has absolutely turned it around since dumping Joe Girardi, winning eight in a row and sweeping both the Angels and Brewers. Last night saw them hand the D’backs a 7-5 defeat, a game where I ended up cashing the Over and was feeling very confident about doing so after just two innings, when the Phils grabbed an early 6-0 lead (after two innings). Tonight they should continue their roll and look for another win by 2+ runs as the team’s run differential during the win streak is +41! 

As I’ve written before, the Phillies were drastically underachieving for Girardi and were likely to turn things around eventually, based on their YTD run differential, which has been positive most of the season. Even now, after the eight straight wins, they still are underperforming their Pythagorean win total by four. The good news is that the offense has really turned it around, scoring six or more runs in all but one game during the win streak. They should have success this afternoon vs. Madison Bumgarner, who has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four outings. He has a 5.18 FIP on the road this season and - as mentioned in yday’s analysis - the D’backs’ bullpen has generally been pretty bad (5.75 ERA, 1.55 WHIP on the road). 

Zack Wheeler starts here for Philly. He has a 1.73 ERA and 0.936 WHIP at home. The fact the team is just 3-3 in his six home starts seems a bit unlucky. In his last seven starts overall, Wheeler is 4-0 (5-2 TSR) with a 1.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of those seven starts.  Arizona came into yesterday hitting just .215 for the year and .204 its last seven games. They just don’t match up well here and the Phillies are obviously red hot. 9* Philadelphia Run Line (-1.5)

7* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): You may be surprised to see this selection, based on the respective run differentials of the two teams, not to mention some other things I’ve written in the past about the White Sox. But Chicago did take Friday’s series opener from Texas, 8-3, and has shown an ability to hit lefties this season. Their offensive numbers are simply much better when facing a southpaw, so I’m not overly concerned about them going up against Martin Perez, who has been red hot for the Rangers. Perez may be due to regress and note his team has now dropped seven of nine overall. The Rangers are only 6-12 in day games this season as well.

Starting here for Chicago will be Lucas Giolito. He’s coming off a pair of rough outings - where he allowed 11 runs total (three unearned) - but prior that had given up 3 ER or less in his first even starts of 2022. So I can see Giolito outdueling Perez here as he’s also 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Rangers. Perez is just 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox.

The White Sox have won four of six overall and perhaps the most encouraging sign is that they’ve scored 17 runs in the L2 games. On Thursday, they scored four times off Dodgers’ southpaw Tim Anderson, who had previously not allowed a run since 5/17. There is no denying that Texas, despite having scored the same number of runs as they’ve allowed this season, is the colder team in this matchup. The White Sox do have that ugly -52 YTD run differential, so it could be argued they shouldn’t have a better record than the Rangers. But I think we should start to see the RD even out here at home. 7* Chi White Sox

6* Toronto (7:10 ET): Hard for me to see any result other than a Blue Jays’ victory in Friday’s series opener at Detroit. The Jays come in pretty hot, having won 10 of 13, while the Tigers are a complete mess this season with a 23-33 record. Both clubs had Thursday off. Toronto actually lost its last time out, 8-4 to Kansas City, while Detroit did just win two straight in Pittsburgh. But overall, the numbers clearly point Toronto’s way in this series and especially for tonight’s game. Lay the big price. 

So I realize that Jose Berrios, who will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, does not have the best overall numbers this season. But he is coming off a quality start vs. Minnesota where he had a season-high 13 strikeouts. In that game, Berrios allowed just two runs and three hits over seven innings of work. It was his second quality start in his last three appearances and now he faces the worst offensive team in the majors, Detroit, who is putting up a paltry 2.8 runs per game. No other team averages fewer than 3.2. The Blue Jays have won 8 of Berrios’ 11 starts this year.

Going back to May 24th, which was the start of Toronto’s 10-3 run, the offense has put up six or more runs in all 10 victories. Tonight they’ll face Edwin  Rodriguez, who has been really bad thus far, posting a 9.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through three starts. Last time out, he was annihilated by the Yankees, giving up 10 runs and 11 hits in just 4 ⅓ IP. The Tigers ended up losing that game 13-0. It certainly seemed as if Rodriguez was “tipping” his pitches, which isn’t a good sign. The Blue Jays are 36-16 off a loss. 6* Toronto

10* Over D’backs/Phillies (7:05 ET): This weekend finds the surging Phillies hosting a D’backs team that’s bounced back in recent days. The Phillies have won seven in a row and swept two series since dumping former manager Joe Girardi. They just went to Milwaukee and beat the Brewers three times, which is not easy to do. As for Arizona, they were on a four-game losing streak before beating Cincinnati 7-0 on Wednesday. Then the D’backs won again Thursday afternoon, 5-4, in come from behind fashion. At least eight runs have been scored in 14 of Philly’s last 16 games while the same holds true in 16 of Arizona’s past 24 games. I’m on the Over here.

The Phils have scored six or more runs themselves in all but one of the games during their current win streak. They should continue to find success at the plate here vs. Zac Gallen, who has struggled a bit as of late with a 5.29 ERA and 1.529 his L3 starts. Now most of that is one bad start against the Royals on 5/24, but he has still allowed 10 runs and 19 hits over his last 17 IP. Gallen is off his 1st loss (to Pittsburgh!) and behind him is one of baseball’s worst bullpen. Arizona relievers have combined for a 5.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season.

Kyle Gibson will toe the rubber here for the home team. He too has an ERA north of 5.00 over his L3 starts (5.65) with a WHIP of 1.396. Lasting only 3 ⅓ innings, Gibson gave up five runs his last time out, a game the Phillies were very fortunate to win (came back from 6-2 deficit to win 9-7 in extra innings). Four of Gibson’s last five starts have seen at least nine total runs scored. The last time Arizona came to Philly (last August), the Phillies scored seven runs in all four games. They’ve averaged 7.0 rpg during this win streak and the Over has hit six straight times when the team is a home favorite. 10* Over D’backs/Phillies

8* LA Angels (9:38 ET): Let’s do it. The Angels have lost 14 in a row, an unconscionable free-fall that has left them four games over .500 and cost Joe Maddon his job. It was only two weeks ago that most saw the Halos as a legit contender to the Astros in the AL West and a “shoo-in” to make the postseason. The last three losses have come here at home to the Red Sox, who have won seven in a row. But getting swept at home, in a four-game series, is rare and the Angels have Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight. I think tonight is the night they snap the losing skid. 

I know that the Angels’ everyday lineup has been besieged with injuries, but all three losses in this series have been by one run, two of them 1-0. All it takes is one big hit and I think that this team’s fortunes can improve drastically. They had the same number of hits as Boston yesterday. Remember that in the final game of the last series (in Philadelphia), the Angels blew a 6-2 lead and lost in extra innings. It’s pretty incredible that they didn’t win any of the last four games. 

Ohtani threw seven shutout innings against the Red Sox back in May, finishing with 11 strikeouts, as the Angels won 8-0 at Fenway Park. Though he’s coming off B2B rough outings, Ohtani had previously given up 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts and I expect him to step up in this spot when his team needs him the most. I know that Nick Pivetta has pitched well of late for Boston, but to me this is all about the Angels being due for a win. I just can’t see them losing again. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Dodgers/White Sox (2:10 ET): This series has seen each team win a game in low-scoring fashion. It was the White Sox in a 4-0 shutout on Tuesday, followed by a 4-1 Dodgers’ win last night. Given the pitching matchup on tap this afternoon, and the scarcity of runs we’ve seen in those L2 games, I think a third straight Under is in the cards here. There have been eight or fewer runs scored in 7 of the Dodgers’ last 11 games. For the White Sox, there have been eight or fewer runs scored in 13 of the last 23 games. 

The Dodgers are only allowing 2.6 runs per game on the road, which is pretty incredible. Don’t look for them to give up very many today with Tyler Anderson starting. Anderson is 6-0 in his eight starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. On the road, his numbers are even better (1.52, 0.972) and his L3 starts (all wins) have seen him not give up a single run in 20 innings! He’s allowed only 13 hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Set aside a poor outing vs. Philadelphia on 5/12 (where Anderson allowed seven runs) and he’s given up just seven runs in seven starts! 

Dylan Cease will go for Chicago and he is capable of outdueling Anderson. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Anderson’s, due to having two subpar outings, but Cease has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his 11 starts. He hasn’t allowed any earned runs in his L2 starts (three unearned) and three of his last four. Should be noted that the Dodgers have topped four runs just twice in their last 11 games and only once in the last eight. 10* Under Dodgers/White Sox

7* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays probably aren’t catching the Yankees for first place in the AL East (seven games back), but now at 33-23 on the year, they’re clearly establishing themselves as a likely Wild Card team in the American League. Tied with Toronto for the top WC spot, the Rays will look to sweep St. Louis on Thursday. After a thrilling walk-off win on Tuesday, Tampa Bay delivered its best offensive game of the season last night with 18 hits, including seven doubles. They ended up winning 11-3 and joined the Yankees as the only teams with 20 or more home victories this season. I like them this afternoon. 

Thursday’s starter Shane McClanahan has been dominant in 2022. I talked about this prior to his last start when I backed McClanahan and the Rays against the White Sox in a similar price range, here at home. McClanahan ended up delivering six solid innings where he gave up only two runs, had eight strikeouts and didn’t walk anybody. That was on the heels of an outstanding May where he went 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA in five starts (5-0 TSR). Over his L5 starts, McClanahan has allowed just four runs in 32 IP with 42 strikeouts and just three walks. Opponents are hitting just .201 off him for the year. He’s clearly an AL Cy Young candidate, St. Louis has never faced him before, and he’s underpriced (if you can believe it). 

This play is more about jumping on McClanahan than fading St. Louis, but it should be noted the Cardinals have scored only five runs in this series. Starter Miles Mikolas has a 6.75 ERA and 1.557 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up a total of 10 runs in the previous two. Mikolas’ only previous start vs. the Rays came in ‘14 and it did not go well as he allowed 10 runs. No offense to the Cards here, but they’re up against one of the top pitchers in all of MLB and don’t have much of a chance. The Rays have won 21 of 26 interleague home games vs. righties. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): Firing Joe Girardi certainly seems to have ignited a spark in Philadelphia where the Phillies have now won five straight and go for their second straight sweep on Wednesday. After handing the Angels three losses over the weekend, the Phils now look to do the same to the Brewers, in Milwaukee no less, which would be very impressive. The Brew Crew are still in first place in the NL Central (lead down to one-half game over St. Louis), but the Phillies are a hot team right now and you need to continue riding them. As I’ve written before, they were really underachieving under Girardi. 

Though still three games below .500, Philadelphia has had a positive run differential for almost the entire season. Based on their current RD (+19), you’d expect them to have about four more wins and be in second place in the NL East. I very much believe this can be a playoff team in 2022. Starter Aaron Nola (off B2B wins) should continue his turnaround here, which was long overdue as his WHIP on the season is 0.93. His xERA is a full point lower than his actual ERA, a strong indicator that more positive regression is forthcoming. Nola is also 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Milwaukee. 

Now the Phils have pulled out a couple of seemingly improbable victories the L2 days, including last night where they homered twice in the ninth off Brewers closer Josh Hader. The problem for the Brewers right now is that they just aren’t scoring. They’ve been shutout twice during their current four-game losing streak and have now dropped six of their last seven overall. This is a team with strong starting pitcher, but Adrian Houser (who goes today) isn’t one of the best as he’s allowed 5+ ER in half of his previous six starts. The Phillies are putting up 5.1 runs per game on the road (2nd most in MLB) and I look for their resurgence to continue here. 10* Philadelphia

7* Run Line Seattle (6:40 ET): First off, please note that this is run line play where I’m backing the Mariners +1.5. These AL West rivals have split the first two games, the Mariners taking the opener 7-4 while the Astros bounced back with a 4-1 win last night. I love the idea of getting Logan Gilbert +1.5 runs in this spot as not only does the Seattle starter sport a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP after 11 starts this season, but Houston is only averaging 3.7 runs per game at home. The M’s should score enough here and I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this series finale. 

So Gilbert has been excellent thus far in 2022, especially on the road where he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. The team has won five of his seven road starts, including the last one (4-3 over Texas) where Gilbert allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over six innings. Prior to that, at home, he threw seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against these Astros. In seven of 11 starts this season, Gilbert has allowed 1 or 0 ER, which is very impressive. He was the American League Pitcher of the Month for April and has gone six innings or longer in four straight outings. Count on him to hold up “his end of the bargain” here. 

Houston could be without one of its top relievers (Hector Neris), although he’s appealing his four-game suspension. It will be Jose Urquidy starting this game for the home team. Urquidy probably does not deserve his 7-3 team start record, given a 1.51 WHIP. He started opposite Gilbert back on May 28th (when Gilbert threw the seven shutout innings) and got shelled, allowing six runs and 12 hits. Urquidy now has a 5.93 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Mariners. He rarely gets past the fifth inning. Considering this pitching matchup, an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” sounds nice. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

7* Toronto (2:10 ET): These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions right now as Toronto is 8-2 in its L10 games while Kansas City is 2-8. The Blue Jays, looking to establish themselves as a playoff team in the American League, have come in and humiliated the last place Royals each of the L2 games, winning 8-0 and 7-0. They go for the sweep this afternoon and given the total lack of resistance they’ve encountered thus far, I can’t foresee any problems for the visitors today. Kansas City has the worst record in all of baseball right now (17-37) and the worst run differential (-96) so they are last in my power ratings. 

Yesterday was the major-leading leading eighth time that the Royals have been shutout this season. This team is averaging just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, second fewest in all of baseball. They’ve lost eight of nine overall and in seven of those games scored three runs or less. This is all “music to the ears” of Toronto starter Yusei Kikuchi, who is looking to bounce back after allowing three home runs (to Minnesota) in his last start. Previously, Kikuchi had allowed 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts (2.36 ERA in May) and he’s actually been more effective this season on the road than at home. 

Toronto’s lineup is firing on all cylinders right now as they’ve scored at least six runs in 11 of the last 13 games. They’ve lost only two times during that stretch (both to Minnesota) and that has them second in the AL East and in the top Wild Card position. I can’t see Brady Singer, the Royals starter for Wednesday, slowing them down. Not after he just allowed seven runs in his last start (also gave up three home runs). As the first two games have shown, this series is a total mismatch and KC is just 17-42 the L59 times it has lost the first two games of a series. Look for the Jays to win their eighth straight on the road. 7* Toronto

9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Perhaps “blame it on the rain,” but the Pirates lost for just the second time in seven games yesterday, falling 5-3 to the Tigers. They just didn’t have enough answers for Detroit starter Tarik Skubal, who limited them to three runs on six hits in a strong seven-inning effort. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ own starter (Jose Quintana) pitched much worse than expected (he had a 1.73 ERA his previous seven starts), giving up four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. As alluded to earlier, the game was delayed for 2+ hours due to rain. I’m expecting a better start (and finish) for the home team today and will call for them to salvage a split of this two-game series. 

While it’s true that Pittsburgh has overachieved (in terms of wins) relative to its YTD run differential, a matchup with the Tigers - at home - should be ideal. Detroit comes in averaging a league-low 2.2 runs per game on the road. They are also dead last in runs scored overall. Before yesterday, the Tigers had dropped three in a row while getting shut out twice. This is a team that came into yday’s game batting a collective .198 on the road. So I expect Mitch Keller to pitch better than usual for the Pirates. In his last start, Keller delivered as a +270 underdog, beating the Dodgers after giving up just two runs in five innings. Given that result, he can certainly beat Detroit. 

The Tigers will counter with Alex Faedo. He’s been better than anticipated, going at least five innings in all six of his starts while never allowing more than two earned runs. But history says the team will falter here as they’ve won B2B road games only one time all season and that was April 14th & 15th at Kansas City. The Pirates are by no means a powerhouse offensively, but they are better than the Tigers at the plate. They’ve also won each of the last five times they’ve been off a loss. 9* Pittsburgh

9* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers have fallen into a bit of a “rough patch,” losing five of seven overall, but I’ve still got them comfortably rated as the best team in all of baseball right now due to their +113 run differential. I suppose some will want to make a case that the Yankees deserve to be #1 because they’re off to the best start at the one-third mark of the season in 20+ years. But still give me the Dodgers. Something I am even more adamant about is the White Sox having no business being within two games of .500. They have the fourth worst run differential in the American League at -56. 

Only Pittsburgh (+7) has exceeded its Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than have the White Sox (+6) so far. If you’re unfamiliar, a team’s Pythagorean win total is based on its run differential and how many games you’d “expect” them to win based on it. A team that’s being outscored in the manner the White Sox have been “should” have a record of 19-33 according to our old friend Pythagoras. The White Sox are being outscored by two full runs per game at home so far and are greatly outclassed in this matchup with the Dodgers. I’m stunned at the oddsmakers’ pricing on this series opener. 

The Dodgers are outscoring teams by nearly three full runs per game on the road! Now I understand that Mitch White is far from their most dominant pitcher, but Tuesday’s starter should do just fine in this spot considering the White Sox are hitting just .219 at home. White is being opposed by Michael Kopech, who allowed five runs in three innings his last time out and is due for some more regression (his xERA is two points higher than his actual ERA). This is the cheapest price on the Dodgers for any game all year. They’ve gone 5-2 the previous seven times they’ve been below -145 on the ML while Chicago is 6-14 as a ML dog (4th worst) including 1-7 at +130 or less. 9* LA Dodgers

9* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): Two of the dregs of baseball meet over the next two days at PNC Park with the Pirates hosting the Tigers. Neither team is in last place, but both are in the bottom four in run differential (overall in MLB) and thus the respective futures look rather bleak on each end. The fact the Bucs are slight underdogs at home (on the ML) is something they should take as an insult, especially after winning five of their last six games. Detroit was shutout twice over the weekend by the Yankees, then lost 5-4 in 10 innings on Sunday. Still I couldn’t possibly back the Bucs. 

If you’re looking for positives, then check out this pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers and Jose Quintana goes for the Pirates. I’m anticipating a low-scoring game here with Skubal coming in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP (10 starts) and Quintana having a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP (10 starts). Skubal has really been lights out of late, allowing zero runs in four of his previous five outings. Last time out, he held Minnesota scoreless for seven innings and gave up just two hits. That makes it six different times this season that Skubal hasn’t allowed a run. Quintana has allowed 2 ER or less in eight straight starts! 

The two starting pitchers aren’t the only reason this total is so low. These are two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball as well. Detroit is averaging just 2.2 runs per game on the road while hitting .198! They’ve had seven straight games of single-digit hits. Pittsburgh isn’t much better with a .226 average on the year and they have the lowest average of runs scored per game in the entire National League. Even though the Pirates are coming off B2B wins, they still only managed five runs total in the two games. The Under is 12-5-3 in their last 20 games overall. 9* Under Tigers/Pirates

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While I don’t think that the Cubs’ ceiling in 2022 is particularly high, they should be able to move past Pittsburgh into third place in the NL Central. As for Baltimore, they’re destined for last place (again) in the AL East. It was a tough loss Sunday night for the Cubbies as they blew a one-run lead in the ninth and fell 5-3 to the Cardinals in extra innings. I faded them twice in that series, both times successfully, but they remain 4-3 over the L7 games and have been a better team away from the Friendly Confines this season. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup works in their favor, rather drastically. 

It will be Keegan Thompson on the mound for Chicago on Tuesday. Working both out of the bullpen and as the team’s sixth starter, Thompson is 6-0 in 2022 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has picked up the win in each of his last four appearances, the last one coming in the series with St. Louis. Baltimore has never faced Thompson before, already a disadvantage, and it’s not like the Orioles are hitting the ball well of late either. Over the L3 games, they’ve managed only 13 hits and gone 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. They don’t hit righties particularly well (.223 in games vs. righty starters) and they are bottom five overall (all of MLB) in runs scored. 

As for the Cubs, they have been hitting right-handed pitching much better than the O’s have, and tonight they’ll be facing Kyle Bradish, who has really struggled as of late. Bradish has a 6.82 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the season (somehow the team has won four of his seven starts) and those numbers jump to 10.03 and 1.885 over his past three outings. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start so far. Baltimore has just three wins over its last nine games. The Cubs are 31-15 L46 interleague road games vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Blue Jays/Royals (8:10 ET): Toronto has lost only twice over its last 11 games. Both setbacks came over the weekend, at home, against Minnesota. But one streak still alive is eight consecutive games going Over the total. The Jays’ offense has certainly come alive, scoring six or more runs in all but one of those eight contests. But the Twins were able to score eight runs yesterday and nine on Friday. There have been at least 10 total runs scored in each of the Jays’ L8 games and I think the streak continues here as they head to Kansas City to face the last place Royals. Take the Over. 

Things are NOT going well in KC as I’ve got this team rated dead last in the power ratings. They have the fewest wins (17) and worst run differential (-81) in all of baseball. After a rare win on Saturday (6-0 over Houston), the Royals immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling 7-4 to the Astros yesterday. That marked the 10th time in 13 games that KC pitching allowed seven or more runs. So this seems to be an ideal matchup for a Toronto lineup that is swinging the bats well. The Royals have allowed the most runs in the American League by a fairly wide margin.

David Lynch is Monday’s starter for the home side.He’s off an outing where he allowed six runs in Cleveland and has a 8.31 ERA/2.154 WHIP his L3 starts. Tough to see him doing well in this spot and the Royals’ bullpen also happens to be very lousy. Toronto will counter with Ross Stripling, who figures to serve as more of an “opener” as he’s only getting the nod here due to the injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Stripling has made just five starts this year and lasted four innings in four of them. He has a 7.87 ERA on the road (1.50 WHIP) and let it be known the Royals should have scored more runs on Sunday, but left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Over Blue Jays/Royals

9* Arizona (6:40 ET): After a horrific 3-22 start to the season, the Reds stabilized somewhat. But they are still just 18-35 overall and in last place in the NL Central. I’m a little surprised by the “respect” the market keeps showing them after they dropped three of four (here at home) to the last place Nationals over the weekend. Still, this is going to be the fifth consecutive game they’ve been favored on the money line. Now Arizona is coming off a losing series (1-2) in Pittsburgh and was shutout on Sunday. But I’ve got the D’backs rated as the better team here and in light of the pitching matchup, think they should be favored.

Madison Bumgarner will be going for the D’backs tonight. The veteran southpaw has had a solid start to the season, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.196 WHIP through 11 starts. Last time out, he went six innings and allowed only two runs. But he was a hard luck loser as the team eventually went down 6-0 to Atlanta. That was his third straight start going six-plus innings, a positive sign. Now the Reds do come into this game averaging a league-leading 6.0 rpg here at home. But that’s a number due to regress and Cincy is just 4-11 its previous 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds are also 3-9 L12 as a favorite. 

The key for Arizona will be the offense getting on track after it managed only five singles on Sunday. They’ve scored just one run the L2 games. But the good news is the D’backs are 3-0 off their previous three shutout losses and will be facing Hunter Greene, who has a 6.19 ERA and 1.521 WHIP for Cincinnati. The Reds have lost 8 of Greene’s 10 starts thus far and only two times has he gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings. That means the bad bullpen will be in play here, offering Arizona more opportunities to score runs. The Reds are allowing 5.8 rpg at home, tied for most in all of MLB. 9* Arizona

8* St. Louis (7:08 ET): The Cardinals were able to score four runs in the 10th last night, salvaging a doubleheader with the Cubs and giving them an opportunity to win this five-game series Sunday night. While it’s been a tough series with the Cubs, the Cards are a better team than most realize right now. They own the National League’s third best run differential (+52), which is significantly better than division leading Milwaukee (+28), whom the Cards currently trail by 1.5 games in the Central. With Adam Wainwright on the bump tonight, I look for the road team to pick up the series win.

The Cubs are wedged in between the Pirates and Reds. That’s a sentence no team wants to read about itself. They’ve really underperformed here at Wrigley this season, going 11-19. That’s actually nothing new as, incredibly, the Cubs’ record in their L62 home games is 19-43! They are 6-25 their L31 games hosting a team that has a winning record!  They’ve been competitive this week against the two top teams in the NL Central, but take note of St. Louis’ 4-1 record this year as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (21-7 in that role the L3 seasons) and that the pitching matchup for Sunday night is heavily skewed in the Cards’ favor.

Wainwright has a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP his L3 starts and just threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against San Diego his last time out (with 10 strikeouts!). That made it six straight starts allowing 3 ER or less.  Wainwright has typically done very well against the Cubs in his long career, including LY when he allowed just one run in 15 IP. Justin Steele goes for the Cubs here and he has a 7.50 ERA/1.583 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s been very inefficient his L2 starts (155 pitches in just seven innings) and multiple walks in five consecutive outings is yet another bad sign. The Cardinals average 5.0 rpg on the road. 8* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (1:35 ET): I’ll call for the Phillies (who I won with yesterday) to finish off the sweep here as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Phils greatly underachieved for former manager Joe Girardi as their record at the time of his dismissal was just 22-29, despite a positive run differential. They responded to Girardi’s firing by dominating the Angels in the first two games, winning 10-0 and 7-2. Last night was “all over but the shouting” after the first inning when Philly jumped out to a 5-0 lead. That was the Angels 10th straight loss as they are in major trouble right now. 

As I wrote yesterday, the Phillies were long overdue for a turnaround. It starts with what I mentioned before - they have a run differential (+16) of a team that should have a winning record. Having 10 one-run losses this year has really hurt. But things are now trending up, which you can’t say for the Angels, who are only three losses away from matching the longest streak in franchise history. It hasn’t helped that they’ve faced the Yankees and Blue Jays before this, but they’ve also only scored five runs total in the L5 games. That’s not enough to beat anybody. They clearly miss Anthony Rendon and Taylor Ward. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is a career-worst 0 for 23 slump. 

That’s gotta be music to the ears of Kyle Gibson, the Phillies’ starter for Sunday. Gibson has a 2.37 ERA and 0.824 WHIP at home and is due for some better results after the team dropped each of his L3 starts. Gibson has allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. Visiting teams are only hitting .216 at Citizens Bank Park this season! The Angels counter with Patrick Sandoval, a lefty, While the Phils’ lineup does often struggle vs. southpaws, the fact they’ve scored 23 runs the L3 days gives me enough confidence. Plus, Sandoval allowed six runs in his last start (in only three innings) and the Angels’ bullpen has been bad over the last month (a big reason why they’ve allowed 6+ runs in 8 of the L10 games).  10* Philadelphia

6* Philadelphia (7:15 ET): Well, the “new manager bounce” (soccer term) certainly applied to the Phillies last night as they handed the Angels their ninth straight loss and did so in 10-0 fashion. Needless to say, the first game post-Joe Girardi couldn’t have gone any better in the City of Brotherly Love. Now as I’ve written before, the Phils had been drastically underachieving under Girardi. Despite their losing record, they’d carried a positive YTD run differential (basically the whole season), so interim skipper Rob Thomson is walking into a good situation here as the team was already due for better results.

As for the Angels, things couldn’t be much worse right now. They’ve scored a total of three runs in the past four games. Mike Trout is hitless in the last five games and Taylor Ward, who has actually been the club’s top hitter, left yday’s loss with an injury. I just can’t see the Halos breaking through against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler tonight as Wheeler not only comes in with a 1.37 ERA and 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts overall, but he has a 1.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP here at home. Wheeler has gone six starts in a row w/o allowing more than 3 ER and that’s while facing the likes of the Mets, Braves, Padres and Dodgers. He’s gone six-plus innings in five of those six starts. Wheeler’s 4-5 team start record is due to improve. 

The Phillies have the third most one-run losses (10) in all of MLB, which is what ultimately cost Girardi his job. The team is far better than its record and I project them to be back above .500 by the All-Star Break. Keep in mind their last three losses all came in extra innings. I look for them to hit Michael Lorenzen, today’s starter for the Angels, who will be making his ninth trip to the mound in 2022. It’s not that Lorenzen has been all that bad, I just can’t see him outdueling Wheeler in this spot. 6* Philadelphia

8* Over Twins/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): Minnesota came in and pulled off a surprising win last night, 9-3 as +210 underdogs. That ended Toronto’s eight-game win streak (which had been a season-high) and it was also the first time in six games where the Jays failed to score at least six runs. Out for revenge today, you’ve got to figure the home team will swing the bats well, but it turns out that I don’t have faith in EITHER starting pitcher Saturday afternoon. This promises to be another slugfest. Take the Over. 

The Twins, even though they dropped four of five in Detroit earlier this week, continue to lead the AL Central with a 31-23 record. They have some key pieces out of the lineup, but you wouldn’t have known watching yesterday as they broke out for nine runs and 12 hits. They roughed up Yusei Kikuchi and should also find success against Toronto’s starter for Saturday, Jose Berrios, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Berrios, who spent six seasons with Minnesota, has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Last time out, he made it only 2 ⅓ innings and gave up six runs. 

Toronto is on a six-game Over streak coming into today and, save for yesterday, you can credit their offense for that. They’ve averaged 6.9 runs per game over the last week. Dylan Bundy will start for the Twins and he figures to struggle. Bundy has an 0-5 TSR his L3 starts and has been particularly poor on the road, turning in a 7.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He’s allowed a homer in four of his last five outings. Neither bullpen is all that good in this matchup, by the way. 8* Over Twins/Blue Jays

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were able to battle back and earn themselves a four-game split of the previous series with the Rangers while the White Sox were just swept up in Toronto. I faded the Pale Hose in two of the three games, including yesterday’s 8-3 defeat. It’s pretty telling how the market has priced them against the likes of the Blue Jays and Rays. Note that in the previous two seasons, Chicago was a road underdog of +175 to +250 only ONE time. Today marks the third time in the last four days! 

What the market knows is that Chicago has no business hovering around .500. I’ve said this before myself, noting their woeful run differential (now -55). Not only is that worse than the last place teams in both the East (Orioles) and West (A’s) divisions, but it’s worse than Detroit. The only AL team w/ a worse RD right now is Kansas City, who has the worst record in all of baseball. The White Sox are simply a bad team and tonight’s matchup vs. Shane McClanahan isn’t about to change things. 

McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in the game this season. He comes in with a 2.01 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his 10 starts. Lately, he’s been especially dominant, turning in 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 starts, all wins. McClanahan has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start here in 2022 and that probably won’t change tonight, facing a White Sox lineup which averages only 3.6 rpg. Vincent Velasquez goes for the White Sox and he’s got a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this year. The Rays are clearly the better team in this matchup and they happen to have a significant pitching advantage tonight. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Over Tigers/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees appear to be in peak form again, winning seven of their last nine including a three-game sweep of the Angels to start the week. In that sweep, the Yanks’ pitching staff allowed just one run each game and only twice have they allowed more than three runs in a game during their 7-2 run. The team has to feel good about the trend continuing here as they’ll send Gerrit Cole out to face a Tigers’ lineup that is producing only 2.3 runs per game on the road this season. But with the home team sure to do most of the “heavy lifting,” I’m looking for a “surprise” Over in tonight’s series opener. 

The Yankees come into tonight averaging 4.6 runs per game, both at home and overall. They’ve scored the eighth most runs in all of MLB and figure to add plenty more to the total tonight facing Elvin Rodriguez, who will be making just his third career start (and fourth appearance) for the Tigers. In his first start, Rodriguez gave up a grand slam. His second outing, Sunday against the Guardians, went a lot smoother. But this is a far more talented lineup he’s facing today. Matt Carpenter has hit three home runs in the last week while Gleyber Torres homered again yesterday, giving him more this season than he had in all of 2021! 

If there’s ANY reason for Detroit to be optimistic here, it’s because of the fact NY played a doubleheader yesterday. That means a tired Yankees’ bullpen could be prone to giving up a few more runs than usual. Cole had his worst start of the season against the Tigers, lasting only 1 ⅔ innings on a cold night. He’s coming off B2B games with double digit strikeouts, but also allowed five runs in one of them. The Tigers, who surprisingly took four of five from Minnesota, are due for SOME offensive increase moving forward. The Over has hit in each of the Yankees last seven series openers. 10* Over Tigers/Yankees

9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): The Cardinals will be looking to avenge a 7-5 defeat to the Cubs last night where they trailed most of the way. St. Louis came into this series fresh off sweeping the Padres where they allowed only seven runs total in three games. They are still 29-22 overall, just three games off the pace in the NL Central and have the division’s best run differential. That’s well clear of the Cubs, who are actually behind the Pirates as well. Chicago has yet to win on Friday this season (0-5) and I believe that trend continues today.

Miles Mikolas will get the baseball for the Redbirds today. He was roughed up in his last start (allowed six runs to Milwaukee), but before that had been very good. In fact, Mikolas hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his first nine starts! He checks in with a 2.67 ERA and 1.055 WHIP. His team start record is 6-4 and that would be even better with the proper run support. He’s received two or fewer runs of support in half of his starts. He shouldn’t need much support today given a 1.62 career ERA (11 starts) vs. the Cubs. The bottom line is I’m expecting another quality start from Mikolas.

Marcus Stroman will start for the Cubs here. He ended what had already been a strong May with seven shutout innings against the White Sox last week. But I still remember his poor April and Stroman does have a 6.28 ERA here at Wrigley. The Cubs are a shockingly poor 18-41 their L59 home games, including 5-23 the L28 times they’ve hosted a team with a winning record. 9* St. Louis

10* Over Nationals/Reds (6:40 ET): Things have stabilized in Cincinnati following a disastrous 3-22 start to the season. The team is actually 12-10 over its L22 games and the offense has been a real bright spot, now averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game at home this year. Only Colorado, which has the obvious benefit of Coors Field, scores more at home. But unfortunately for the Reds, their pitching still stinks. You’re talking about a staff that is allowing 5.7 rpg at home. Add it all up and Reds’ home games are now averaging an absurd 11.6 rpg! That makes this total (vs. a Washington team that also has bad pitching) too low. 

So the Nationals’ staff is one of two in all of baseball that gives up more runs per game than the Reds. (Colorado gives up the most). The team had gone Over in four straight games before yday’s 5-0 loss to the Mets, which was actually the second game in a row the Nats’ offense got blanked. Starting today will be Joan Adon, who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.669 WHIP in 10 starts, nine of which have seen Washington lose. Adon is off probably his best start (at home vs. Colorado), but can’t be trusted here against a Reds lineup that typically puts up a ton of runs at home and is batting a collective .280 its L7 games overall. Plus, the Washington bullpen stinks. 

Having been shutout in B2B games, there’s not much expectation for the Nationals’ offense today, but considering how many runs visiting teams have scored so far this season at Great American Ballpark, I look for the Nats to put more than a few on the board. The unproven Graham Ashcraft will get the starting nod here for the Reds. Ashcraft only has two starts under his belt and isn’t a big strikeout guy. Washington is 6th in the NL in OBP, respectable, and the Over is 14-3-2 in the Reds’ last 18 home games when they face a right-handed starter. 10* Over Nationals/Reds

7* Toronto (7:07 ET): At the outset of this series, I said to look for a red hot Blue Jays team to continue winning at the White Sox expense. The only thing I’d change is that I should have taken them yesterday when they were available at a much cheaper price than either today or the first game. Toronto won the opener 6-5 and then 7-3 yesterday, making it seven wins in a row for them. Expect the domination to continue Thursday behind Alek Manoah, who is 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 13 career starts here at home. 

As I’ve also said previously, the White Sox have no business hovering around the .500 mark. They’ve been outscored by 50 runs this season. That’s worse than both the last place teams in the East (Orioles) and West (A’s). It’s worse than the 20-30 Tigers. In fact, the only team in the American League with a worse run differential than the White Sox is Kansas City and the Royals have the worst record in all of baseball! Averaging only 3.7 rpg and with a 7-11 record against teams that are .500 or better, the White Sox are simply not a very good baseball team in 2022.

Manoah is very good for Toronto, checking in with a 1.77 ERA and 0.911 WHIP this season. So it’s not just here at home where he dominates. Manoah has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. He’ll be opposed here by Johnny Cueto, who I faded last Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month play on the Cubs. Cueto allowed five runs in that start and when you consider the Chicago bullpen has the third highest ERA in baseball the L2 weeks, Toronto (averaging 6.3 rpg the last week) figures to score plenty of runs tonight. 7* Toronto

10* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): The Phillies have lost five in a row and are proof that “If it wasn’t for bad luck, they’d have no luck at all.” This team is much better than its won-loss record (eight games below .500) and emblematic of that is today’s starter Aaron Nola, who carries a 3.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, but has a team start record of just 2-8. I did take Nola his last time out, which resulted in a win as he went 8+ innings with 10 strikeouts and allowed just one run. I obviously think Nola and the Phils are due for better results moving forward and to convince you further, I’m 4 for 4 the L4 times playing on or against them. It’s “on” this time.

San Francisco was the most profitable team to bet on last season, making an insane 45.8 units as they finished and had the most wins of anybody in the regular season (107). Of course, they eventually bowed out to the Dodgers in the postseason. Coming into 2022, I figured there was no way the Giants wouldn’t regress, at least in terms of both wins and profitability. Their level of profitability was unmatched over the L20 seasons! Sure enough, they’ve been a slight money LOSER to this point in the season, even after beating the Phillies each of the L2 days. 

Carlos Rodon will start tonight for the Giants. He arrives in poor form with an 0-3 record in his L3 starts with a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Rodon failed to beat Cincinnati his last time out. I just can’t see him matching up well with Nola, who has gone six-plus innings and allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last starts. The Phillies’ last three losses have also ALL come in extra innings, so the “worm is due to turn” here, especially after yesterday where they went 3 for 17 with RISP and left 14 runners on base. The offensive numbers are set to increase here at home and skipper Joe Girardi (on the “hot seat”) definitely needs a win today. The Phillies are 10-3 the L13 times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. 10* Philadelphia

analysis soon

9* Under Royals/Guardians (1:10 ET): Kansas City’s pitching staff has now given up seven or more runs in eight of the last ten games, including both in the series. With numbers like that, it’s really no surprise that KC comes into Wednesday with the fewest number of wins (16) in all of MLB. I’ve got the Pirates rated lower, but that’s it. This afternoon, the Royals hope to avoid getting swept in Cleveland. I’m in no way confident that they will, but the better bet is that this AL Central matchup will be low-scoring. Despite the Royals’ recent pitching woes, I’m on the Under. 

The O/U line was higher for Monday’s series opener, so that game (7-3 Guardians’ win) went Under. But after yesterday’s 8-3 result, the Royals are now 10-2 Over their L12 games. Again, most of that has to do with the pitching, which has allowed more runs that anyone in the American League. The bullpen is coming off a horrible month, but I’m expecting a strong start here from Brad Keller, who has a 3.95 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. He was shelled his last time out, but earlier in the season, Keller had his best start of ‘22 when he tossed six shutout innings vs. Cleveland (allowed just two hits).

The Guardians counter with Konnor Pilkington, who hasn’t been exactly “dominant” in either of his two previous starts. Yet to make it through four innings, Pilkington will likely rely on his bullpen, which has been outstanding thus far. Another positive is that Pilkington is a lefty and KC is scoring only 3.7 runs per game when facing a southpaw starter. The Royals are also currently dealing with a lot of injuries to their lineup. Considering that, and the fact the KC pitching HAS to improve (can’t get any worse!), I’m looking for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. Keller has 1.71 ERA in eight career starts vs. Cleveland and a 1.88 ERA here at Progressive Field. 9* Under Royals/Guardians 

8* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers suffered one of the most shocking losses of this MLB season last night as they fell 6-5 (at home!) to the Pirates. They were -330 on the money line on Monday, so hopefully you didn’t bet them. It’s a similar deal today and obviously at that price, there’s little value. But I am willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line as this is still a matchup of what I consider the best team in baseball against the worst team in baseball. Pittsburgh’s -83 run differential is baseball’s worst right now. The Dodgers are +118 (easily #1). To be clear, this play is on the RL where I am backing LA -1.5. 

 Mitch Keller is winless in 2022 for the Bucs at 0-5 his first seven starts. His team start record is 1-6 to go along with a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. His L2 starts, both of which were vs. the lowly Reds, saw Keller allow 5 ER each time out. The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 5.8 runs per game at home where they are winning by an average of 1.9 rpg. The Dodgers are also 9-5 off a loss. \

It is downright shocking to me to see that Pittsburgh is 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. But off a win, the Pirates are 4-13 this season and 0-6 on Tuesdays. They will face Julio Urias, who has very good numbers on the year (2.49 ERA, 1.064 WHIP) after allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Another Pirates’ win here is simply out of the question and with that mindset, why not lay the -1.5? Look for the home team to win by AT LEAST two runs here. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Nats’ Pat Corbin FINALLY broke into the win column his last start by pitching six-plus strong innings and giving up only three runs to the Colorado Rockies. Previously, Corbin had been 0-7 in 10 starts (0-9 team start record). It’s difficult for me to see how Corbin would win again today as he faces the first place Mets, who have won four straight including 13-5 in yday’s series opener. That was the fourth time in seven games that NY scored double digit runs. They are averaging 8.9 rpg during that stretch. 

As you might expect from a matchup of the first and last place teams from a division, the former holds a 6-2 edge in head to head matchups this season. The Mets are 33-17 overall and have been living a bit of a “charmed life” this season. They’ve won six straight at home where they are 17-8 on the year. Second in the NL in team batting average (.264), again, they should have no problems roughing up Corbin, who is 5-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 22 previous starts vs. NY. Already, the team has lost twice this year with Corbin on the mound against them. 

Starting for NY will be Trevor Williams. While far from the team’s most dominant starter, he’s not allowed a run in three of his previous four appearances. Some of that has come as a reliever, but nevertheless I like his chances today against a Nationals team that is only 11-21 vs. righties this season. Washington is already a virtual lock to finish last in the NL East this season as they’ve been outscored by 61 runs. That’s worse than the Reds. Only KC and Pittsburgh have been worse in that regard. 7* NY Mets

7* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have won five straight and I look for them to continue winning this week when the White Sox come to town. As previously stated here, Chicago has no business whatsoever hovering around .500 as they own a -45 run differential. That gap between expected and actual wins was a big reason why I chose to fade them Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month on the Cubs, who came in at +135 in a 5-1 win. Toronto is obviously a much better team than the Cubs, so no shock how I’m playing this one. 

The Blue Jays “should have” been a playoff team a year ago (+183 run differential), but were not, despite 91 wins. Most projected them to be in the field this year, or even to win the AL East. Right now, they’re third in the division, 5.5 games back of the Yankees. So they need to keep winning. Shouldn’t be a problem tonight with Kevin Gausman on the mound as he’s got a 6-3 team start record to go along with a 2.25 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. The White Sox are only putting up 3.6 runs per game this season. 

Lucas Giolito will start opposite Gausman here. Giolito has pretty good numbers himself and has actually yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. But you can look for Toronto’s numbers with runners in scoring position to improve moving forward. Also, the White Sox will be without Tim Anderson on Tuesday after he sprained his wrist Sunday. Chicago is just 2-5 after an off-day while the Blue Jays are coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the Angels out in LA. 7* Toronto

10* Over Giants/Phillies (4:10 ET): The Phillies continue to underperform as they were swept over the weekend by the Mets, leaving them six games below .500 despite still having a (slightly) positive run differential. The Phils have now dropped 8 of 11 overall and things get no easier this week with a visit from the Giants. I’ve said before that there is just no way the Giants will be as profitable as they were last year to bet on, and sure enough they’re down 3.3 units despite their winning overall record (25-21). The way I see this one going is lots of runs, from both clubs. Take the Over. 

The Giants are one of only three teams to be averaging 5.0 runs per game (Dodgers & Mets are the others). I like their chances today against Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.28 ERA and 1.743 WHIP his L3 starts. Gibson has been better since being roughed up for six runs by the Dodgers on 5/13, but he’s made it through six full innings just once in his last six starts. As we saw last night, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a problem this season, a reason six of their last seven games have gone Over the total. Only one of those games saw fewer than nine total runs scored. All three games vs. the Mets went Over. 

Phillies’ home games have been atypically low scoring thus far (7.4 rpg), but that should start to change. The Giants’ last seven games have been even higher scoring than the Phillies. There’s been an average of 12.1 rpg scored in SF contests over the last week and three times their pitching staff has given up 10+ runs during that stretch. Logan Webb is the starter Monday. Like Gibson, Webb struggles a bit more when facing lefties. The Over has hit in six of the Giants’ last seven series openers and seven straight vs. the NL East. It’s 13-5 their L18 games overall. 10* Over Giants/Phillies

7* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Though they’ve been quite the pleasant surprise so far, the Twins were only able to manage a four-game split with the lowly Royals over the weekend. Look for them to take their frustrations out on another AL Central team Monday, the Tigers, whom Minnesota has had its way with thus far in 2022. The Twins are 5-1 so far vs. the Tigers and just took two of three from them last week. Minny is also 5-0 in Monday games this season. Detroit has been miserable offensively (just 2.7 runs per game) and doesn’t have the kind of starter on the mound today (Brieske) that can bail them out. 

Despite splitting with the Royals, the Twins have won 10 of 14 and eight of those victories have come by at least two runs. They are now 10 games over .500 for the year and enjoy a five-game division lead. Facing Beau Brieske, this Twins lineup should put up some runs. Brieske is 0-4 on the year with a 5.04 ERA and 1.385 WHIP. Recently, the numbers have gotten even worse, in large part due to a terrible start vs. TB where he was charged with six runs. When he faced the Twins last week, Brieske needed 90 pitches just to get through four innings. The Tigers lost 2-0. It’s believed that Brieske, a rookie, may be “tipping” his pitches, which is certainly not a good sign. 

Starting Monday for Minnesota will be Dylan Bundy. His recent numbers aren’t that great either as he was shelled at Baltimore earlier in the month. Bundy was 3-0 to start the year, but the Twins have since lost all four of his starts. He did not factor into the decision against Detroit last week, giving up just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. I think Bundy has pitched better than the numbers indicate as he’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of seven starts. As mentioned earlier, the Tigers have been dreadful at the plate this year. In fact, they rank dead last in MLB in runs per game (by a lot). 7* Minnesota

10* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): These were the only two teams in all of baseball that were off on Friday. It’ll be just a short, two-game set on the Southside this weekend. Earlier this month, the White Sox won a pair of games at Wrigley. But make no mistake about it, while May has gone better (so far) than April did for the Sox, this team has no business being .500 (22-22) on the season. They have a -42 run differential, which is indicative of a 17-win team. Last year’s AL Central Champions were absolutely hammered earlier this week in Boston. While they did manage one win at Fenway, the Sox gave up 16 runs in each loss!

Now the Cubs are also coming off a humiliating setback, 20-5 at Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon. That leaves them eight games below .500 (18-26), one-half game behind the lowly Pirates entering Friday. But the Cubs are the opposite of the White Sox this year in that they are much better than their record. Only outscored by eight runs, you’d expect them to be a lot closer to .500 and the win expectancy was obviously a lot higher before getting beat by 15 runs. Only the Marlins have fallen further short of their win expectancy than have the Cubs. Meanwhile, only the Pirates have exceeded theirs by a greater margin than have the White Sox.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup for Saturday, you’ve got Keegan Thompson going for the Cubs. This will be his third start. The Cubs have won the previous two and last time out Thompson threw five shutout innings. The White Sox Johnny Cueto has yet to allow a run in either of his two starts this year and he cashed as a +145 underdog against the Yankees last week. I don’t see it continuing for Cueto. His team is certainly due to regress, in terms of wins and losses, and has been outscored by a shocking 2.1 runs per game at home. They bat just .219 here. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Miami (7:20 ET): The Marlins have lost two straight (both to the Rays) and five of six overall. That leaves them at 18-24 overall on the year, but the Fish have a +12 run differential, which tells me they are better than that record. An MLB-high 14 one-run losses is the clear culprit as to why Miami has five fewer wins than “expected” (based on run differential), the largest discrepancy of any team in baseball right now. But I like the spot for them Friday night in Atlanta as the Marlins had Thursday off while the Braves lost 4-1 here at home to the Phillies. By the way, I cashed in on all four games in that Braves-Phillies series, winning on each team twice! 

In recent years, Atlanta has had Miami’s number. The Braves have taken the season series seven years in a row and produced double digit wins against the Marlins 15 of the last 17 seasons. They were 11-8 head to head in 2021, but this year, things look like they are changing. These NL East rivals have split the first six meetings of 2022. Ironically, two of Miami’s three wins have come by one run. It’s interesting to note that while Atlanta has three more wins than Miami this season, their run differential sits at -13. A case can be made that the Marlins have been the better team so far. 

Trevor Rogers will start Friday for Miami. The fact he is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA all-time vs. Atlanta, and just gave up three home runs (five runs total) when he faced them last week is a little concerning. But what’s not concerning is Rogers’ numbers on the road (1.29 ERA) and the fact he’s bounced back before from a poor outing. Last Friday was the third time Rogers allowed 5+ ER in a start this season. But off the prior two, he’s responded by giving up 0 ER in his next start (10 IP). Atlanta’s Ian Anderson has a losing record in his career vs. Miami and also a 6.92 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three home starts this year. Anderson allowed four runs and lost in last weekend’s series. The Braves managed just five hits last night without Acuna and Ozuna in the lineup. Acuna will be out again tonight. 10* Miami

7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This looks like a mismatch to me, with favorable odds on the home team. The Angels, despite getting beat 7-2 last night by the Rangers, are off to a 27-18 start this year and battling for first place in the AL West with the Astros. The Halos certainly appear to be one of the most improved teams in all of baseball this season, and a lot of that improvement has to do with an offense that is 1st in the American League in runs scored. With a solid edge at the plate and in the starting pitching matchup for tonight (more on that momentarily), the home team is a solid play for Thursday. 

Toronto was expected to compete for the AL East pennant this year, but they are currently 7.5 games back of the Yankees and have a -7 YTD run differential. Toronto hitters are chasing way too many pitches out of the zone and the result is a lineup averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Over their L7 games, the Jays are batting a collective .217. They are hitting .221 on the road for the season. I don’t like their chances here against Shohei Ohtani, who comes in sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.017 WHIP after seven starts. Oftentimes, Ohtani can be overvalued by the oddsmakers, but because his TSR is 3-4 and he’s facing the Blue Jays, we’re getting a really good price, in my opinion. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start tonight for Toronto. He’s been better since coming off the injured list, giving up just one run in 10 ⅔ innings. But Ryu is facing a very strong lineup here and he’s still allowed a lot of hard hit balls in those last two starts. Back to the Blue Jays’ offense, it is just 25th in runs and in the six games prior to Tuesday’s 8-1 win over the Cardinals, they scored three or less every time. An off-day isn’t enough to counteract the fact the Jays are simply the inferior ballclub in this matchup. Ohtani seems to hit better in the games where he pitches and Mike Trout is going to bounce back from last night’s unusual 0 for 4 effort at the plate. 7* LA Angels

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. 

It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. 

 Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

9* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): So we’ve come full circle in this series, which began with me taking the Phillies on Monday. They won 7-3, but then it was time to “flip my support” to Atlanta each of the L2 days and they came through for me as well, winning 6-5 and 8-4. If you recall, in Monday’s analysis, I stated that - despite the teams having very similar records - the Phillies were probably better, based on the respective run differentials. The matchups didn’t work in their favor the L2 days, but here I think we’ll see Philly prevail and earn a split of this four-game series. I’m of course hoping to make it a 4-0 sweep! 

Aaron Nola simply does not deserve a 1-8 team start record. The Phillies’ starter for Thursday, Nola has a 0.994 WHIP this season and has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his nine outings. Yet he has not won since his first start of 2022, ironically when he allowed four runs. Four of the eight starts since have seen the Phillies lose by one run. I think it’s time for Nola’s luck to turn and it helps that he’s facing a team he’s gone 12-8 against with a 3.32 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The Braves are only scoring 3.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter and batting .220 in those contests. 

Atlanta will counter Nola with Kyle Wright, who has been solid thus far with the exception of a start vs. Boston on May 10th. But Wright has a 5.56 ERA when facing the Phillies and has never beaten them. The Phillies are putting up 5.4 runs per game on the road, which is more than they allow. That goes back to run differential as the team is +10, so you’d think they’d have a winning record. But they are just 20-24 in all games. Atlanta is 21-23, but they’ve been outscored by 10 runs this year. After a win, the Braves are just 6-15 and they’ve not won three straight at any point in 2022 (0-5 when off B2B wins). 9* Philadelphia

9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer.

Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests.

The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series, having cashed the Phillies on Monday and the Braves on Tuesday. I came into the series touting the Phillies as being better, based on the respective run differentials, but we also might be at a “buy low” situation with the reigning World Series Champs, who have the same record (as Philly) and are certainly capable of beating any team on a given night. Considering the way this line has moved (similar to yesterday), the Braves look to be the “right side” here on Wednesday. 

There was definitely some ninth inning drama last night as the Phillies took the lead 5-4 in the top half after a Bryce Harper two-run HR. Harper (4 RBIs) accounted for all but one of Philly’s runs last night. But Atlanta answered in the bottom half with two runs of their own, thanks to a costly error from Phillies’ CF Roman Quinn, to win 6-5. Obviously I’m biased, but it was a game that the Braves “deserved” to win as they outhit the Phillies and led most of the way. They are 10-4 at home vs. the Phillies the L3 seasons. 

The starting pitchers for tonight’s game will be Charlie Morton for Atlanta and Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia. Morton has been sharp of late with a 3-0 TSR, 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts. His last two starts at home have seen him give up just one run and four hits in 11 IP. Suarez is unbeaten on the road (3-0), but also off a bad start where he lasted just three innings and only threw strikes on 48 of 84 pitches. Call it a “hunch,” but the Braves have 25 hits in the first two games and seem ready to break out offensively. 8* Atlanta

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yes, I backed the Phillies yesterday and made clear that I thought they were the better overall ballclub. That argument was mostly made based on the teams’ respective run differentials, however the significant edge the Phils had in Monday’s starting pitching matchup also could not be overlooked. Today, that advantage simply does not exist as Atlanta will send out Max Fried, who can almost always be counted on for a quality start. Look for the home team to bounce back from last night’s 7-3 loss here.

Five times in his last six starts Fried has gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less (also known as a “quality start.”) He allowed just four runs total over a four-start stretch from 4/19-5/7 and that included matchups against the Dodgers, Mets and Brewers, the three division leaders in the National League. After allowing four runs to the Padres on May 13th, Fried bounced back by allowing just three runs in six innings in a no-decision vs. the Brewers last week. That was a game the team “should have” won. 

The seven runs scored by the Phillies in last night’s series opener were their most in any game since 5/14. It was also their highest hit total since that same game. So expect some offensive regression here, which is bad news for their starter Kyle Gibson, who comes in with a 6.27 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four road starts. Gibson hasn’t won on the road since last season. His last time starting on the road, he gave up six runs in just 3 ⅔ innings. Atlanta is 14-7 off a loss this season. 7* Atlanta

10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in baseball right now, are on fire at the plate. They’ve put up an average of nearly seven runs per game (themselves) over the last week and were 10-1 winners in Monday’s series opener here in the Nation’s Capital. Unsurprisingly, LA is a big moneyline favorite again tonight with Walker Buehler on the mound. I expect their string of high-scoring efforts to continue against former teammate Josiah Gray, but Buehler will likely give up some runs too and that makes the Over the right call in this one.

Buehler’s strikeout rate is down this season and he has a 4.24 ERA/1.412 WHIP over his L3 starts. Now that’s mostly due to him giving up five runs in five innings to the Phillies, what ended up being a wild 12-10 game. But Buehler has gone just five innings in four of his last six starts, including three of the last four. On the surface, Washington’s offensive numbers at home look pretty bad (just 2.7 rpg!) but I’d look for them to improve, Juan Soto specifically as he currently is at a career-low in both batting average and OPS. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around at the plate. The Nats have 36 hits in their L4 games, so the fact they’ve scored 1 run or less in three of them seems a bit unlucky to me. 

But you can count on the Dodgers to do most of the scoring in this game. They come in having scored a league-high 131 runs this month (6.2 per game) and the Nationals’ pitching staff happens to have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball. Gray, who was sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer trade, has a 6.43 ERA and 1.5571 WHIP at home and he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his eight starts overall. I like this total as we’re still below the key number of 9 and I expect just as many total runs scored as we saw yesterday. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals

9* Chi Cubs (6:40 ET): The Cubs came in and took the series opener here in Cincinnati, 7-4, despite the Reds hitting three home runs. The Cubs hit two HRs of their own though, both three-run shots, and that turned out to be more than enough. Other than their three homers, the Reds finished with just two hits and as you know this quickly has turned into a miserable season in the Queen City as the team is buried down in the cellar of the NL Central with the worst overall record in baseball. 

The Reds have been a bit better of late, winning 8 of their last 14 games, but four of their wins this month have come against the Pirates, who are the only team with a worse run differential. All things considered, I think this is a tremendous value to go against Cincinnati. The Cubs, despite being 17-24 on the year, have a winning road record (10-9) and a positive run differential (+1) on the year. Going back to their last series (vs. Arizona), the Cubbies have jumped out to a three-run lead in each of the last three games. 

I like their chances of doing that again here, facing Tyler Mahle. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Mahle still has a 4.61 ERA. Two of his last three starts came against the Pirates, so take the 3-0 team start record with a grain of salt. The Reds are 6-22 off a loss this season and 5-19 in night games. The Cubs counter with Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. He’s deserving of better than a 1-5 TSR this season and after coming off the COVID list, he turned in five solid innings vs. Arizona last week. Stroman’s last start away from home saw him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. 9* Chi Cubs

10* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): Though both teams enter this series eight games back of the Mets, with identical 19-22 records, I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have played far better than the reigning World Series Champion Braves in 2022. Philadelphia has a +11 run differential so far while Atlanta is -11. The last two weekends have seen the Phils be very competitive with the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball, taking four of seven games including yesterday’s 4-3 final. The Phillies also have some revenge here after being swept late last season at Truist Park. I like the road team in today’s series opener. 

Bryce Harper is just 1 for 8 since returning to the Phillies lineup, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets going at the plate again. Really, tonight should be a big game for the entire Phillies’ lineup, which is averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. They face Tucker Davidson, a lefty with just one start under his belt. Davidson did throw five shutout innings in that lone start, but also did allow 5 ER earlier this year in his one stint as a reliever. The Phillies have hit lefties relatively well thus far and would seem to be “due” for a big offensive game on Monday after 10 straight games of facing the pitching of the Dodgers & Padres. 

On the mound, Zack Wheeler should get the job done here for the visitors. Wheeler has allowed a total of just three runs over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA. In three of the four starts, he went at least six innings and didn’t give up a single run. He has 23 strikeouts against only two walks in his last three starts and last time we saw Wheeler he allowed just four hits against San Diego. The Braves have scored three runs or less in four of their last seven games (lost 4-3 Sunday in Miami) and they have a losing record at home. Wheeler has a 3.23 career ERA against them. 10* Philadelphia

8* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): I know that backing the Pirates isn’t exactly the “sexy” move right now, but after being drubbed over the weekend by St. Louis (here at home), they should come out highly motivated for the opener of this new series. The Bucs are getting an ideal opponent in Colorado, who has dropped 10 of its last 13 overall, including six of nine on a recently completed homestand. The Rockies just played a doubleheader on Saturday, so that’s three games in the last two days for them and as we all know, they are traditionally a terrible team away from Coors Field. They are 1-9 L10 games as a road underdog.

The Pirates were absolutely humiliated on Sunday, losing 18-4 to the Cardinals in an early start time. It was 7-0 by the second inning. But they should count on getting a better start here from JT Brubaker, who had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also threw six shutout innings of four hit ball in his lone start vs. Colorado last season. The Rockies just are not doing much scoring on the road this year, averaging only 2.7 runs per game, the fewest in the National League. Furthermore, when facing a right-hander on the road, the team is last in batting average, 29th in slugging and 29th in OPS. They are getting outscored by more than 3.0 rpg on the road thus far! Did I mention that, at home, Colorado was shutout on Sunday? Their current lineup is batting just .150 all-time vs. Brubaker. 

The Rockies inability to hit/score runs on the road is especially problematic tonight as they send Chad Kuhl to the mound. Kuhl has a 7.54 ERA and 1.754 WHIP over his L3 starts and the team has lost them all. He’s allowed 5 ER in B2B outings.As a former member of the Pirates, Kuhl knows PNC Park well, but I don’t think that will help him in this instance. The Rockies’ relief pitching is no better as they are last in bullpen ERA. Something else to note is that the team has lost its last six series openers. This is one of the rare times Pittsburgh is a justified ML favorite. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): I played Arizona Friday afternoon, noting that they’d taken the series opener at Wrigley Field (the previous day) without scoring many runs (3-1). They delivered with an easy 10-6 victory over the Cubs, scoring multiple runs in three of the first five innings. I laid off yesterday’s game, figuring the Cubs weren’t going to be swept at home this weekend and most of the way, that appeared to be a prudent decision. The Cubs led 4-0 after the third inning and appeared well on their way to victory still up 4-1 heading into the eighth. But then they allowed the D’backs to tie the game and in extra innings things were decided on a three run double by Daulton Varsho. The Cubs scoring twice in the bottom half of the 10th was not enough. 

Last Sunday, I took a team in this very same spot (at home, lost first three games of the series) and they came through with a victory for me. Now that was the Dodgers, who are obviously a lot better than the Cubs. But let me point out that Chicago should be a lot better than 6-15 at Wrigley this season as they’ve scored more runs here than they’ve allowed. Despite winning the first three games of this series, I’m not sold on Arizona long-term as they still have a -21 YTD run differential, despite their .500 record (21-21).

The starting pitching matchup today certainly appears to be in the Cubs’ favor as they’ll send Wade Miley to the bump. The veteran Miley has made a pair of starts in 2022 and the most recent went very well as he held Pittsburgh to just one hit over seven shutout innings. Miley will be opposed by Merrill Kelly, who gave up EIGHT runs in his last start, lasting only two innings. Arizona pitching has allowed five or more runs in six of the last seven games. Only once in their history have the D’backs swept the Cubs at Wrigley and that was a three-game series in 2017. After letting one get away yesterday, I’m calling for the home team to avoid the four-game sweep. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. The first four meetings between these AL Central rivals this season have all been decided by two runs or fewer. Last night, it was the Twins picking up the 6-4 victory. The Royals took two of three in the previous series (also here in KC), so while they are (badly) lagging behind Minnesota in the standings (8.5 games back), they have shown they can compete with them. Sooner or later, you’ve got to figure these surprising Twins are going to come back “down to Earth.”

This looks like a pretty even pitching matchup, at least on paper, with Brad Keller opposing Joe Ryan. It would seem very unfortunate that Keller has just one win in seven starts as he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. At home, the numbers are even better. The team start record boils down to the fact that the Royals are barely scoring three runs per game in Keller starts. Eventually, that “worm has to turn.” Last time out, Keller again did not get the win, but it was the fifth time in seven outings he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less (aka a “quality start.”) Keller did not pitch in the last series vs. Minnesota, but does have a 3.20 ERA in nine career starts against them.

Ryan’s numbers are slightly better than Keller’s. He also did toss six shutout innings here at Kauffman Stadium last month, a game the Twins won 1-0. But recently, Ryan has struggled a little bit, failing to go a full five innings in two of his last three starts. He’s coming off a career-high 103 pitches against Cleveland last Sunday. It remains to be seen how a rookie fares off an outing like that. At the end of the day, this looks like a really even matchup to me and it’s nice to have an additional 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins probably aren’t the main focus of the Miami sports scene this evening, but they’re a good value at home facing the division rival Braves. Now Atlanta did come in and take the series opener on Friday, by a score of 5-3, but that was largely thanks to another ineffective start from Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who was charged with all five runs. The Marlins’ bullpen didn’t allow any runs over its five innings of work and the home team ended up with more hits than the Braves did. Atlanta is still a bit overvalued due to winning the World Series last year and I think Miami is better than its record.

After last night’s result, the Braves are now one-half game ahead of the Marlins in the NL East standings (they have one more win). But run differential paints a much different picture of the two clubs. Atlanta has been outscored by 11 runs on the season. Miami has a +17 run differential. Their 12 one-run losses (easily the most in baseball) have really hurt as no team has underachieved its win expectancy more. Look for their luck to turn however, especially at home where they are somehow 9-11 despite having outscored their opposition by a fairly significant margin. 

Getting the baseball for Miami this evening will be Elieser Hernandez. It has not been a great start to the year for Hernandez, but Atlanta is hitting just .211 on the road thus far and .208 in games where they face a right-handed starter. Hernandez has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Braves since the start of last season. With him on the mound last month, the Marlins beat the Braves as a +145 underdog (even though Hernandez didn’t pitch very well). I expect him to outduel Kyle Wright in this spot as Wright is only two starts removed from getting shelled for six runs. Miami has done a lot more hitting than Atlanta recently and I expect the offense to carry Hernandez in this one. 10* Miami

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Padres’ pitching certainly showed up in a major way in the last series, holding the Phillies to just three runs total with two shutouts. While Friday’s starter Sean Manaea has an 0-4 team start record his L4 outings, I think he’s due for a better result here against the Giants. Manaea not only has a 2.70 ERA on the road this season (four starts), his WHIP is 0.862. He had 12 strikeouts his last time out and coming up empty in three straight quality starts suggests to me that Manaea is certainly “due” for a win here.

As I’ve said previously, there is simply no way that the Giants are going to be as profitable as they were last season when they finished with a MLB-best +45 units. They come into this game having won 8 of 11, which has them firmly “in the black,” but almost all those wins came against a Rockies team whose number they’ve had ever since the start of last season. They did lose in Colorado, 5-3, on Thursday. When NOT facing the Rockies, the Giants are just 4-6 this month. They trail San Diego in the standings, despite a superior run differential. While that usually would have me on them, I think the disparity is a sign of things to come. 

Not only does SD have Manaea, who has a 2.72 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in eight career starts vs SF, they have a 14-7 record on the road where they are 5-1-1 in series. Meanwhile, the Giants will send Jake Junis to the bump tonight. Junis began the year in Triple-A and both of his big-league starts came against the Cardinals. His five seasons with the Royals were hardly inspiring as he produced a 29-35 record to go along with a 4.82 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. This is a game the Padres should come in and steal. 10* San Diego

9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! 

Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series.

Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros

9* Arizona (2:20 ET): It didn’t take much offense for the D’backs to defeat the Cubs in the series opener on Thursday (just three runs), so I figure that with them likely to score more today, another victory is on the horizon. The win on Thursday stopped a six-game slide for Arizona, but remember they are no longer facing the Dodgers, who were responsible for four of those six losses. Now the Cubs were responsible for the other two, but this series looks to be headed in a different direction than the last one.

On the periphery, today’s starting pitching matchup seems to be pretty even, but I believe Arizona has the edge. The Cubs have hit just .203 their L7 games, so look for them to struggle against Humberto Castellanos, who has a 2.76 ERA and 0.919 WHIP his L3 starts. Castellanos was a bit of a “hard luck loser” against the Cubs last week as he gave up two solo shots, but those were the only runs he allowed in 5 ⅓ innings. He actually did not factor into the final decision, which was a Cubs’ 3-2 win. The Cubs have been struggling to hit righties this month and several players are missing from the lineup right now. 

Kyle Hendricks starts today for the Cubs. He has a higher ERA and WHIP than Castellanos. He’s had three starts so far where he allowed 4+ ER and two where he gave up six. Hendricks was able to outduel Zac Gallen when he faced Arizona last week, giving up only one run in 5 ⅔ IP. But Hendricks’ lack of strikeouts this season should be a concern. He’s struck out only two batters in four of his previous five outings. The Cubs do have a positive run differential (+2 YTD), but that’s misleading and a byproduct from several massive wins over the lowly Pirates. Take Arizona to win here. 9* Arizona

9* Under White Sox/Royals (2:10 ET): So we’ve got two starting pitchers with pretty ugly numbers in this series finale, but the way the previous four games have gone, I’m not expecting many runs here. Not only have the White Sox only scored a grand total of 11 runs so far against KC pitching, there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 16 of their last 20 games with the Under going 14-5-1. Chicago has scored only six runs total its last three games and is facing an opponent that averages only 2.6 rpg at home. Take the Under in this divisional matchup. 

The Under is 12-6-1 in Royals’ home games this season, including 3-0-1 in this series. There have been eight total runs scored in two of the four games and just three total in the other two. As alluded to above, I think we’re getting an inflated number here because of the two starting pitchers, neither of whom have very good numbers on the season. But Kansas City’s Carlos Hernandez is 3-0 all-time vs. Chicago with a 2.70 ERA. Hernandez has been rocked in B2B starts, but note the last one was at Coors Field. His final three starts of April all saw him allow 3 ER or less. The White Sox are hitting only .218 in games where they face a left-handed starter. 

Vince Velaquez was originally going to start yesterday’s game for Chicago, but he was bumped back (in favor of Lucas Giolito) and I think the extra day of rest will work in his favor. As mentioned earlier, Kansas City has simply not been scoring much at home. Only Oakland has averaged fewer runs at home this season. Velasquez, like Hernandez, did get rocked his last time out. But that came against the Yankees. In the two starts prior, Velasquez had allowed a total of only one run in 10 ⅔ innings. He allowed more HRs (3) last time out than he did in his previous five starts combined (2). A bounce back is in order today. 9* Under White Sox/Royals

7* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets are trying to avoid what would only be a second series loss in 2022 as they host the Cardinals in the finale of a four-game set on Thursday afternoon. After the teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, the NL East leaders romped to an 11-4 victory in last night’s game. The only previous series the Mets did not win was the last one where they dropped two of three here at home to the Mariners. That should be fresh on the players’ minds this afternoon as they look to continue this excellent start to the season. The Mets are 25-14 and were 10-0-1 in the first 11 series. I think they get it done today. 

Things were looking great for the Mets most of the way last night as they held a 6-2 lead going into the sixth inning. But then Max Scherzer left with an injury and the Cardinals were able to cut that four-run deficit in half. But the Mets, as they’ve often done this season, poured it on in the late innings, scoring five times in the bottom of the eighth. With the quick turnaround between games, I think it’s harder for the team that lost the previous day. The Mets have won all four Thursday games this season. 

Chris Bassitt gets the baseball for the home side and he’s been outstanding thus far, delivering a 2.34 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in seven starts. Back on April 26th, Bassitt tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball against these Cardinals. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER five times. Opposing hitters just aren’t making much contact off Bassitt and when they do, the balls aren’t being hit hard. As for Dakota Hudson, who starts for the Cards today, his expected ERA is more than two full runs higher than his actual ERA (3.06) so expect some regression there. Hudson also has a 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts as he’s walked a total of eight batters, which is more than he’s struck out. The Mets are the better team here and have the pitching edge at home. 7* NY Mets

9* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): I had the Phillies last night as they rolled to a 3-0 victory over San Diego in the middle game of this three-game set. That result was quite welcome in the City of Brotherly Love as not only had the home team lost by that same 3-0 score on Monday, but they’d lost two in a row overall. But as explained in yday’s analysis, the Phils had been playing well before blowing a late lead to the Dodgers on Sunday. They’d won five of six, three of those victories coming out in LA. Also, Philly is better than its record (18-19) as they have a +18 YTD run differential and have scored the most runs of any NL East team. I like them to win again this afternoon and take the series. 

The Phillies will look to get back to .500 today behind right-hander Kyle Gibson, who has been excellent at home thus far in 2022. Gibson has a 1.93 ERA/0.696 WHIP in three starts at Citizens Bank Park and won them all. He faces a Padres lineup that has not only now been shutout three times in its last 10 games, but has also produced a total of only 23 hits in its last four games. Though Gibson struggled last time out against the Dodgers, that was on the road. He’s 2-0 lifetime vs. San Diego with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. 

Yu Darvish may have similar numbers overall compared to Gibson, but the Padres’ starter for Thursday has struggled on the road. You’re talking about a 7.91 ERA and 1.706 WHIP away from San Diego. Darvish does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts overall, just like Gibson does, but he was roughed up for five runs his last time out (on the road). Interesting to note that San Diego, despite having a 23-14 record, actually has a worse YTD run differential compared to the Padres. That tells me to “throw the records out the window” here as I’m banking on the rather dramatic home vs. road splits for Gibson and Darvish to continue. 9* Philadelphia

9* Under Yankees/Orioles (12:35 ET): Baltimore hopes to avoid what would be a four-game sweep here, at home, but that’s easier said than done as they’re up against a Yankees team that is 23-4 its last 27 games and off to one of the best starts in franchise history. Not only have the Orioles lost six straight times to the Yankees, they’ve also lost six in a row overall. Yesterday’s game, a 3-2 Yanks’ win, was the lowest scoring of this series and I figure we’re in store for another one like that here as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound Thursday afternoon. Take the Under. 

This will be the third time this season that NY’s Jordan Montgomery is facing Baltimore. Montgomery may not have a win against the O’s, or any one else for that matter, but he does have a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP, so he’s probably “due.” The two starts vs. Baltimore have seen Montgomery yield just two runs and seven hits in 10 ⅔ IP. Both games stayed Under. Incredibly, all seven of Montgomery’s starts have stayed Under this year as he’s the one pitcher the Yanks can’t seem to score for. In six of the seven games, they’ve scored three runs or less. But the O’s should continue their struggles vs. lefties as the Yanks are allowing just 2.9 rpg in day games (opponents hitting .216). 

Bruce Zimmerman has inarguably been Baltimore’s best starter in 2022. He checks in with a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and hopes the Yanks’ struggles to support Montgomery continue. They should as Zimmerman has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. Three times he hasn’t allowed ANY earned runs and two of those were against the Yankees! Save for Aaron Judge, most of the NY lineup hasn’t had much success against Zimmerman, or lefties in general, at least as of late. The Under is now 25-11-2 in all Orioles’ games this season, which includes 13-1-1 when they are up against a LH starter. This promises to be a good ol’ fashioned pitchers’ duel. 9* Under Yankees/Orioles

8* Philadelphia (6:45 ET): The Phillies are the highest scoring team in the NL East and have a positive run differential (+15). Yet they still find themselves two games below .500 after being shut out (3-0) by the Padres last night. Bryce Harper was out of lineup last night while Kyle Schwarber was 0 for 4. But Jean Segura continued his hit streak (now 13 games) and I think the Phils are set to break out offensively today against Blake Snell, who is making his season debut for the Padres. San Diego is 23-13 but their run differential is only +19. Philly has scored more runs than they have this season. 

So when looking at the two teams, you’d probably make the argument that the Padres’ pitching has been better. But I do not anticipate that being the case this evening as Snell won’t be asked to go long in his first start of the season. There have been signs of regression from him the L2 seasons plus he was roughed up a bit in Spring Training. It was an adductor strain that sidelined him. The SD bullpen did throw four scoreless innings yesterday, but still has a 4.45 ERA on the road. Figure to see Nick Martinez relieving Snell today, which is good for the Phillies as Martinez has struggled over his 30 ⅔ innings of work. 

Philly was coming off a 5-2 road trip heading into Tuesday’s series opener. They probably should have finished the trip 6-1, but blew a chance at sweeping the Dodgers on Sunday by allowing three runs over the final two innings. Apparently, Monday’s off-day wasn’t enough to get over that. But I like them giving the baseball to Zack Wheeler in this revenge spot as he checks in with a 1.93 ERA and 0.943 WHIP at home. Wheeler did not get a decision in his start against the Dodgers, but the Phillies did end up winning the game 9-7. Before that, Wheeler didn’t allow any runs in his previous two starts - both of which were here at home. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over D’backs/Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers hit a bit of a “rough patch” there “for a second,” at one point losing four in a row and five of six. But they’ve clearly recovered, spurred on by a late rally against the Phillies on Sunday (I was on Dodger Blue that day) and now they’ve taken three straight from the division rival D’backs. They go for the series sweep this afternoon with Walker Buehler on the mound and there’s probably little doubt in anyone’s mind as to which side will win this matinee. But I don’t think there’s much value in backing LA in this spot, even on the run line. Instead, let’s turn to the total. 

Los Angeles is my #1 rated team in all of baseball right now as they are +81 in run differential. Only one other team is above +50 and that’s the Yankees (+74). No team has scored more runs this season than have the Dodgers (198) and over the L7 games they’ve averaged a whopping 7.0 runs. At home, they are averaging 5.9 rpg for the season. So the D’backs starter, Zach Davies, figures to find himself in the “deep water” here, especially with a 5.12 FIP on the road. Davies has actually pitched pretty well in 2022, but has not gone longer than five innings in any of his three road outings. 

All three games in this series have gone Over. In yesterday’s doubleheader, Arizona jumped out to leads of 3-0 and 2-0, but was obviously unable to hold either time. Still them scoring nine runs Tuesday is a positive sign for this play as is their ability to score on the Dodgers’ starters. Buehler is notoriously tough, but does have a 4.35 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at home through four starts. Those numbers coupled with a Dodgers’ bullpen that has been subpar of late lead me to believe the road team is going to score some runs here as well. Over the L7 games, the Dodgers are allowing an average of 6.6 runs! 10* Over D’backs/Dodgers

6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): After surprisingly dropping the opener of this three-game series with the Tigers (3-2), the Rays bounced back with a convincing 8-1 last night. While Detroit has been better of late (had won four in a row going into Tuesday), three of the wins came at home vs. Baltimore and the team still has the worst overall record in the American League (13-24) and a -39 run differential. Tampa Bay, who won 100 games last season, has its eyes on another playoff appearance as they are 22-15. Today they are sending their best starter to the mound. It’s a big price but lay it. 

Drew Rasmussen already has a 6-1 team start record for the Rays to go along with a 2.67 ERA and 0.921 WHIP. The team has won each of his last five outings with Rasmussen allowing just five runs total. This looks to be a very favorable matchup for the right-hander. Not only are the Tigers hitting just .213 on the road, they are averaging only 2.3 runs in those games. That rpg average is last in all of baseball. The Detroit lineup has collected only 13 hits in the first two games of this series while drawing zero walks. This being a day game also works to the Rays’ advantage as they are 9-5 in the afternoon while the Tigers are 7-13. 

The Tampa Bay lineup has been pretty good against lefties so far, thus I expect them to get to Tigers’ starter Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s been a solid start to the year for Rodriguez, but he’s yet to face a lineup this effective vs. southpaws. TB has faced him many times before (Rodriguez used to pitch for Boston) and has hit .281 off him (with 12 HRs and an .861 OPS) in 13 matchups. Rodriguez has gone just 2-4 in those 13 starts with a 5.21 ERA. He’s not going to get much run support today and the Tigers are 0-5 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 6* Tampa Bay

9* Atlanta (1:10 ET): This has (predictably) been a low-scoring series with the two teams exchanging shutout victories. Milwaukee took the first game 1-0, but then Atlanta returned the favor last night with a 3-0 win. Runs figure to be scarce once again this afternoon as the starting pitching matchup is Max Fried vs. Corbin Burnes. Both pitchers have sub-1.00 WHIPs and have looked dominant in the early going. However, I’m siding with Fried and the Braves on Getaway Day. Milwaukee should not be this large of a favorite in a game where they figure to not score many runs. (They’ve only scored 1 run in the series!) 

Looking at the individual numbers, you’d figure BOTH of these starting pitchers would have better won-loss records. Fried is 4-2 in seven starts (4-3 TSR) with a 3.14 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. He’s been dominant in two road starts, producing a 1.38 ERA and 0.462 WHIP. Fried has allowed 1 HR in four straight starts and is coming off his worst outing (allowed four runs to SD), but previous to that it had been four straight quality starts where he allowed only four runs total in 26 IP. One of those came against Milwaukee, whom he held to one run and four hits over 7 IP in a 3-2 win. 

Fried outdueled Burnes that day. Burnes allowed two runs in six innings, though one was unearned. Burnes has not allowed more than 2 ER in any start this year and has a 1.77 ERA/0.788 WHIP. But here is where things get tricky for the Brew Crew. Burnes has a 10.88 ERA in five career starts vs. Atlanta. He’s not going to get much run support here as Milwaukee’s only run this series came on a wild pitch and they are 4-8 vs. lefties. Not only did yday mark the fourth time the Brewers were shutout this season, but they have been held to three runs or fewer 16 times. Atlanta has the edge in the bullpen as well. 9* Atlanta

9* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox took yesterday’s opener 6-3 and are now slight favorites for Tuesday’s rematch. I know that may seem like a “reach” given the respective records of the two teams, but Boston is a bit better than its 14-21 record while Houston is due to regress a little after winning 11 in a row, thanks to a slew of outstanding pitching performances. The Red Sox have won three of four now while the Astros have dropped two of three. I look for a repeat of yesterday’s result. 

Talking about the Astros’ pitching being due for regression, let’s now look at today’s starter, Jose Urquidy. He has a 3-1 team start record on the road this season, but his ERA in those four starts is 6.35. Urquidy lasted only three innings in his last start (game was suspended due to rain) and only once all season has he made it through six. The Astros’ ace reliever Hector Neris had made 10 consecutive scoreless appearances before the Red Sox got to him last night for three runs in the eighth. The home team can and will put runs on the board here. 

Obviously, Boston is highly motivated in this series as it’s a rematch from last year’s ALCS, which they lost in six games. Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the staff in innings pitched, gets the nod Tuesday. Eovaldi is only 1-1 in his seven starts this year, but has a 3.15 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. He’s deserving of a better record, particularly because he’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any 2022 outing. He’s gone more than six innings in three of his last four starts. It’s very interesting to look at the starting pitching matchup for this game and see how the inferior pitcher (Urquidy) has been getting better results of late. I think that’s due for a change. 9* Boston

10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. 

With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. 

It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians

10* Run Line LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): First off, note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. The Dodgers pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” on Sunday, rallying from an early 4-0 deficit to defeat the Phillies 5-4 and thus avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep. Now it’s time for Dodger Blue to go on another big run.  This is a team that’s already winning by an average of 2.1 runs per game this season. I know it’s a division foe and a familiar face on the mound that they’ll be facing here, but the Dodgers should win big. Lay the -1.5. 

Despite losses in five of their last seven games, I’ve still got LA rated as the best team in MLB (although the Yankees are certainly making their own case). Tonight the Dodgers have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. He’s 3-0 in six starts with a 1.33 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. Gonsolin has allowed only five runs, one of them unearned, in 27 IP. Last time out, which was at Pittsburgh, he allowed just one hit over five scoreless frames. Opponents are hitting just .168 off Gonsolin, who has some revenge on his mind from a start in Arizona on 4/26 where the D’backs ultimately prevailed 5-3. 

Madison Bumgarner is enjoying something of a renaissance for Arizona as his 1.78 ERA is his lowest through seven starts for his career. The previous best came in 2013. I do not expect MadBum to continue to pitch that well moving forward. He didn’t face the Dodgers in the previous series, but is 15-15 all-time against them in 38 matchups. The D’backs come into this series off B2B losses to the Cubs and have scored just 11 runs total in their L4 games. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

9* Run Line Colorado (8:40 ET): Though they’ve had the Rockies’ number the last couple seasons, this shapes up as a tough spot for the Giants, who were just rocked last night in St. Louis. First off, please note that this is a run line selection where I am backing Colorado +1.5. The Rocks have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep, which occurred out in San Francisco. That three-game sweep saw the Rockies get outscored 24-8. Here at home, where they’re obviously a much better ballclub, I’m willing to wager that they can at least stick within a run. 

Colorado is 12-7 at Coors Field this season, 2-0 as an underdog of +125 to +175. They are also 5-1 in one-run games, which is why they are .500 overall despite a -28 run differential. Moving forward, the Rockies are probably due to regress in one-run games, which is another reason to take them on the RL here. Speaking of regression though, that’s what I’ve projected for the Giants from the very start of the season. There’s simply no way they are going to match LY’s success at the betting window. A day after being shutout, SF was buried Sunday night, giving up 15 runs.

When Alex Wood opposed Antonio Senzatela last week in San Fran, it was obviously Wood that got the upper-hand as he allowed just an unearned run over 5 ⅓ innings. Senzatela was charged with five (runs) in just 3 ⅔, but will be better in the rematch as he’s been more effective at home (4-0 TSR, 2.37 ERA). The Rockies came into Sunday with the highest batting average vs. lefties (in all of MLB) and Wood has a 5.32 career ERA against them. Having lost 11 in a row to the Giants, look for the Rockies to come out rather motivated Monday evening. Again, no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* Run Line Colorado

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (6:40 ET): The ML odds have shot up for this series opener, which I suppose makes sense given the Nationals’ general ineptitude (12-24 record) and the fact they’ve already been swept once by the Marlins this season. But the only other time Miami was this large of a ML favorite in 2022, they lost. Plus the Fish aren’t exactly flashing fine form at the moment. They’ve dropped 11 of 14 overall here in May. What I’ve got my eyes on here is the total, which is also on the move. 

Washington road games have averaged 11.3 runs so far this season. That’s easily the most in all of baseball. There were three games in Colorado, in case you were wondering. What’s unique about the average is that the Nats are scoring the most runs per game in all of MLB, away from home. They are also giving up the fourth most. It’s unsustainable, at least to this degree. Over the team’s last four games, all of which were at home, they scored 1 run or less three times. I think we’re about to see that meager offense start to “travel.” 

Sandy Alcantara is off a very sharp outing where he held Arizona to just one run on two hits over 7 IP. That game did end up going Over, but it was an 11-3 Miami win and they scored eight of those runs in the top of the ninth (I had Miami!). Alcantara also held Washington to just one run over six innings back on 4/29. Overall, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all but one start this season. The Marlins’ offense has largely been “feast or famine” this year and has scored three times or less in 7 of the last 10 games. That’s good news for Washington starter Aaron Sanchez, who had a 0.93 ERA in two starts vs. Miami last year. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): This may seem like a “strange call” based on the fact I was on the Giants yesterday, but the 4-0 result (in favor of the Cardinals) certainly weighs heavily on my mind when handicapping Sunday night’s rubber match. San Francisco did come in here and win 8-2 on Friday, but their six-game win streak is now over. The Giants had no answers at the plate for Dakota Hudson and four Cardinals’ relievers. I now expect Adam Wainwright to pitch well in this spot for the Cards. 

As I alluded to in yesterday’s analysis, there is no way the Giants will be as profitable to bet on in 2022 compared to last season’s historic +45 units made. There was a big jump in wins last season, so that’s another reason to expect regression. Sure enough, despite the team having a top four run differential, they are just 20-13 overall and currently third in the NL West standings. By the way, the Cardinals are a fine team in their own right as they certainly project to be in the playoff mix. They have the best run differential in the NL Central right now. 

Wainwright threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball his last time out, his second straight quality start. Though just 3-3 in Wainwright starts this season, the Cardinals went 22-10 with him on the mound in 2021. His numbers look very solid and I don’t see any reason why he should regress. Now Carlos Rodon is off to a great start in his first season in San Francisco. But the Cardinals tend to do well against left-handed pitching, plus they’ve homered in 10 consecutive games. 9* St. Louis

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): I simply cannot see the Dodgers being swept at home here, let alone in a four-game series of any kind. Give the Phillies some credit as they’ve come to Chavez Ravine and put 29 runs on the board in the first three games. But the first game was decided in the ninth inning and the second in the 10th. Yesterday wasn’t close, as the Phillies prevailed 8-3, but with LA you’re still talking about the best team in all of baseball (+69 run differential), even though they’ve now lost 5 of 6. 

The price seems extremely low on the Dodgers today, given that they are trying to avoid a sweep. I suppose that has a lot to do with the pitching matchup as the Dodgers will be sending Michael Grove to the mound while the Phils turn to Aaron Nola. Grove will be making his first career big league start, due to Clayton Kershaw going on the injured list. It seems like a tough spot with how the Phillies have produced at the plate so far, but I expect Grove to surprise and to get adequate run support on Sunday. 

Nola has a 1-6 team start record, so he’s far from a guarantee. The team has lost each of the last six times he’s been on the mound. Now Nola probably doesn’t deserve that TSR, but he did allow five runs his last time out against a light-hitting Seattle team. The Dodgers are averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this year and even with the losing skid, they are still outscoring opponents by 2.2 rpg overall. This just seems like a “buy low” spot on what I still consider the best team in MLB. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Mariners/Mets (1:40 ET): The Mets haven’t lost a series all year and will look to extend their streak to 10-0-1 here on Sunday. (They split a four-game series with Atlanta earlier this month, but that’s the only of their 10 previous series they didn’t win). Now they almost blew having an opportunity to win this series with Seattle as Saturday saw the Mets blow a four-run lead in the latter innings. But third-string catcher Patrick Mazeika won it in the bottom of the seventh with a tiebreaker home run. The Mets now have the best record in the National League (23-12) and are second in the overall standings, trailing only the Yankees.

Seattle won the first game of this series, 2-1 on Friday. They were huge +215 ML underdogs, facing Max Scherzer. But sloppy play in the field (three errors) cost them yesterday plus they left the bases loaded in the first inning. The Mariners, who I expected to regress here in 2022, have now dropped 13 of their last 17 games. They’ll send Robbie Ray to the bump today and he has struggled so far, producing a 4.22 ERA. Ray did have a season-high 10 K’s his last start, but before that, strikeouts were down and walks were up compared to last season. Ray also has a 1.473 WHIP on the road. 

The Mets, now 11-1 after a loss this season, counter with Carlos Carrasco. His numbers, especially at home (0.87 ERA, 0.822 WHIP), have been very good. But don't be surprised if he struggles a bit here. Carrasco also doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and he was rocked earlier this year by St. Louis. He has followed that up with B2B quality starts, including eight shutout innings vs. Atlanta. But I expect Carrasco’s numbers to go up and this looks like a really low total to jump on. The Over is 15-3 in the Mariners’ last 18 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Mariners/Mets

9* Under Blue Rays/Rays (6:10 ET): I think we’ve got a great value on the total in today’s Blue Jays-Rays matchup. Both teams are staring up at the Yankees in the AL East and figure to do so the rest of the way. Right now, not just the AL East, but the entire American League seems wide open as only five teams have positive run differentials and only six have winning records. Interestingly, these are two of the six, but neither has a positive run differential. Despite what, on paper, looks to be an “ugly” starting pitching matchup, I say to look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated here. 

It was 5-2 in the Rays’ favor last night. That was an Over though based on the closing number of 6.5. Six of Toronto’s last seven games have gone Over, even though they are batting a collective .216 during that stretch. The Rays have been even weaker at the plate over that stretch, hitting .212. Tampa Bay has seen three of its last four games go Over, but that includes giving up a ton of runs in two games vs. the Angels, who they are no longer facing. This being a divisional matchup, there’s more familiarity between the two clubs and that typically leads to lower-scoring games. It’s been pretty rare to see a total of 8.0 or higher for either of these two teams recently. 

Now a big reason for the inflated total is the two starting pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu was not good in either of his first two starts, giving up 11 runs in 7 ⅓ innings. But he hasn’t pitched in a month (was dealing with forearm inflammation). I’m looking for a far better outing here as Ryu has a 2.70 ERA in four previous trips to the mound vs. TB. Ryan Yarbrough had a bad first start of 2022 for the Rays, but then tossed five shutout innings vs. Seattle in his second (and most recent) start. He is 8-2 (with a 3.23 ERA) all-time vs. Toronto. The Under is 8-1-3 the L11 meetings between these two, including 7-1-1 here at Tropicana Field. 9* Under Blue Jays/Rays

10* Over Tigers/Orioles (4:10 ET): These are two of the perennial “also-rans” in the American League, but the Orioles aren’t half-bad in 2022. Well, they’re still 14-19 overall and did just lose last night 4-2 to the Tigers. But we’re talking about a ballclub that has been the worst in baseball over the last several seasons, losing 108+ games each of the L3 years that there have been 162 games played. Right now, it is Detroit that owns the worst record in the AL (10-23) even after Friday’s victory. 

I expect more runs to be scored in Saturday’s matinee. While the starting pitching matchup seems decent, from both teams' perspective, neither team is shy about giving up runs. Baltimore allows 5.2 runs per game on the road, so that alone makes this total seem VERY low. Detroit is not exactly a force offensively, but they do score more at home than they do on the road. They will face Bruce Zimmerman, who has been much improved for the O’s this season, with a 1.78 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. But I’m not at all convinced that will continue. Baltimore’s bullpen is also not very good. 

The Tigers turn to Michael Pineda as their Saturday starter. Like Zimmerman, Pineda is off to a better than expected start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. All four of his starts have gone Under, but in two of them he received literally no run support (as in the Tigers were shutout). I don’t see that being the case here and Pineda did have a starter earlier this year where he allowed three home runs. 10* Over Tigers/Orioles

9* San Francisco (2:15 ET): Coming off an extraordinary 2021 season (where they finished +45.8 units), you’d think the Giants would regress a little bit in ‘22. But they’re still a profitable team in the early going (+4.0 units) and they enter the weekend riding a six-game win streak after winning here at Busch Stadium, 8-2, on Friday night. After getting a solid start from Logan Webb, the Giants poured it on late last night with five runs in the eighth inning. They now have the fourth best run differential in all of MLB and are clearly a top tier team again this season. 

St. Louis, meanwhile, has dropped five of six. They’d gotten off to a pretty strong start, but have now lost to the Giants three straight times, going back to the previous series in San Francisco. In between facing the Giants, the Cardinals lost two of three (at home!) to Baltimore. A big problem for the Redbirds right now, as you might suspect, is that they are just not scoring many runs. Friday marked the fourth time in five games that they scored three runs or fewer. 

It’ll be Jake Junis (for the Giants) vs. Dakota Hudson (for the Cards) in today’s starting pitching matchup. This is a rematch from last Sunday, a game the Giants won 4-3. Hudson was plagued by control issues, walking four (he had zero strikeouts) in 4 ⅔ IP and he ended up allowing three runs. Junis is making just his second start of the season here, but he’s also made appearances out of the bullpen. This play boils down to the fact that the Giants are healthier and hotter than they’ve been at any point this season. They are a great value on the ML today. 9* San Francisco

9* Over Guardians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and won’t have skipper Terry Francona on the bench Friday, nor most of the coaching staff. Pitching coach Carl Willis will manage the team this weekend. I was set to fade the Guardians on Wednesday when their game was postponed. That was due to the fact Aaron Civale was going to start. Civale will instead start tonight’s series opener vs. the Twins, who have been struggling at the plate including two shutout losses in their last three games. But Civale’s numbers indicate this is a spot where Minnesota can get back on track - at least offensively. 

Civale has a 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. All five of his starts have gone Over with the opposition combining to score 38 runs. That’s an average of more than 7.0 per game. Lately, things have gotten even worse for Civale as he has an 11.37 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his L3 starts. Most of his struggles have been on the road where he has a 12.20 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in three outings. Yes, the Twins did only muster three totals runs in their last series and I cashed an Under bet on them yesterday. But they are no longer facing the Astros’ pitching staff. Cleveland is bottom six right now in runs allowed per game. 

But the surprising thing about the Guardians is that they are tied for fifth for most runs scored per game. Them and the woeful Reds, who have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball, are the only two teams to have seen 60% or more of their games go Over the total thus far. Here the Guardians’ lineup will face Sonny Gray, whose numbers look okay until you realize he’s only pitched 10 ⅓ innings. His walk rate is a concern and I expect him to struggle this evening. That will be a problem for the Twins as their bullpen is taxed right now. 9* Over Guardians/Twins

10* Under Brewers/Marlins (6:40 ET): We have two tremendous starting pitchers on the mound for this series opener between the Brewers and Marlins. The Brewers’ Corbin Burnes has seen five of his six starts stay Under the total (one push), due in no small part to the fact he is sporting a 1.86 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. For the Marlins, they’ve got Pablo Lopez, who has a 1.25 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. So, in other words, do not expect either team to come close to putting up the same number of runs they scored in their last game. 

Milwaukee just got done facing Cincinnati, which should have been an easy series, but instead they dropped two of three games in the Queen City. Shockingly, the Brewers’ staff allowed 28 runs in those three games including 14 in a wild loss on Wednesday. Normally, when you score 11 times against the Reds, that should be an automatic win. But alas, it was not for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. Note that while Miami also scored 11 runs on Weds (and I cashed them in a ML victory), eight of those came in the top of the ninth. Prior to that inning, the Marlins were on pace to score three runs or less for the sixth time in seven games.

Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season, in case you forgot. It would certainly appear as if he’s going to be in contention for that award again in 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts while never allowing more than 2 ER. And there have been six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five contests. The Marlins have five regulars in their everyday lineup hitting under .220. Doesn’t sound optimal when facing Burnes. But Miami’s saving grace here could be Lopez, whose ERA is the lowest right now in the NL He’s allowed no runs in four of his last five starts and just went eight innings his last time out. The Brewers will be without DH McCutchen. 10* Under Brewers/Marlins

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox got an unexpected off-day on Wednesday when their game was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Guardians’ organization. They’ll take it, but this has also been a hot team (won 7 of its last 8) heading into this big weekend series vs. the Yankees. I know New York has looked like the class of the American League thus far (22-8, +52 run differential), but tonight’s matchup favors Chicago, at home, with Dylan Cease on the hill. 

Cease has made six starts so far in 2022 and the White Sox are 5-1 in those games. He’s posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but recently has been even sharper, turning in a 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his L3 starts and all of those have been White Sox victories. At home, Cease has a 3–0 TSR, 1.45 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. So this is exactly who Chicago would want on the mound when getting set to face a team like the Yankees. Keep in mind that the White Sox “should” be on an eight-game streak right now; in their only loss during that stretch, they blew a six-run lead in the ninth inning. 

The Yankees have won 15 of their last 17 and are coming off a pair of wins over Toronto. But they had to come from behind both games to beat the Blue Jays. On Tuesday, it was a 3-run HR by Aaron Judge in the bottom of the ninth. Yesterday, they were actually outhit. Note that while the Yanks are 14-4 at home this season, they are “only” 8-4 on the road. This will be Luis’ Gil’s first start of the season at the big league level. He pitched down in the minors on Friday and allowed two runs in five innings. While the White Sox are rested, this will be the Yankees’ sixth game in the last five days. 8* Chi White Sox

9* Under Astros/Twins (3:10 ET): Houston is blistering hot right now, having won its last eight games. Now there’s a small chance that win streak could be over by the time this game gets underway. That’s due to the fact that yday’s game here in Minnesota was suspended (in the 4th inning) due to rain. Now it’s more likely that the Astros will be on a nine-game win streak when we get to the first pitch here as they are up 5-1 in the suspended game. Regardless of the result of the resumed game today, I like the Under here as the ‘Stros have allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games and 13 of the last 14! 

There’s a good chance that streak extends another game as well, considering the Twins have only one run on the board in the game that will be completed beforehand. Starting the “second” game for Houston will be Luis Garcia, who has certainly contributed to his team’s amazing pitching run by delivering B2B quality starts. Last time out, Garcia allowed only two runs (one unearned) and two hits over seven innings. He has a 1.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Twins’ lineup that is still without Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton only returned yesterday (from a hip injury) and was 0 for 2 with a strikeout. 

Truly incredible is that the Houston pitching staff has posted four shutouts in the last eight games and has given up only eight runs total! So Minnesota is going to need a strong outing here and I think they get it from Josh Winder, who has yet to allow an earned run. A rookie that the Astros have never seen before, Winder’s first two career starts have seen him allow only five hits in 12 IP. Minnesota is only allowing 2.8 rpg at home thus far and opponents are batting just .200. It’s not like Houston has been scoring a ton during its win streak; only once have they topped five runs and they’ve scored three or less in 6 of their L10 games. Look for a low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Astros/Twins

9* Over Mets/Nationals (1:05 ET): After going Under each of their L3 head to head meetings, the Mets & Nationals finally combined to go Over last night. The final score was 8-3 (Nats won) and interestingly enough all 11 runs were scored in the first two innings. We may not get that kind of explosive start at the plate this afternoon, but there are two struggling starters on the mound and by the end of the game, I expect the Over to hit again. 

Taijuan Walker is the Mets starter and he comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. What is crazy is that all three starts have come against the Phillies! Walker was really roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just four innings of work. He allowed two home runs as well. Walker had previously allowed no runs this year, but those first two starts vs. the Phillies had spanned only seven innings. I know the Washington lineup had struggled at home so far, but yesterday was a positive sign and they are hitting righties well in the month of May. Walker has a 5.24 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Nats. The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after heavy usage yesterday (starter Megill lasted only 1 ⅓ innings. 

The Mets need a win today to avoid what would be their first series loss of 2022. Yesterday’s defeat marked just the third time they lost a game by 5+ runs. The offense should do better here against Joan Adon, who has really struggled in his six starts this year. Adon has a 6.99 ERA and 1.659 WHIP this season and he’s 0-3 w/ a 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 starts. The Mets had their chances to score after the 1st inning yday, but went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Adon’s 1st start of 2022 came against the Mets and he allowed four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 9* Over Mets/Nationals

10* Miami (3:40 ET): While I’m 2 for 2 in the Guardians-White Sox series this week (with a win on each team), I’m 0 for 2 in this Marlins-D’Backs series, losing with the road team both times. My rationale for backing Miami in the first two games was that a) they had revenge for a prior sweep against Arizona and b) they are far better than their record indicates as a MLB-high 10 one-run losses clouds the fact the Marlins have outscored the opposition this year. Arizona, even after winning 9 of its last 11 games (including 9-3 last night) still is sporting a negative run differential on the young season. I’ll try with Miami one more time in the series finale Weds afternoon. 

Yesterday was not only Miami’s worst loss since April 16th, but also the first time they lost a game by more than one run going back to May 1st. Their previous four losses to the D’backs had all been by one run as had their previous six losses overall. The Marlins even opened the scoring last night, getting two runs in the top of the first on a Jose Soler home run. But they wouldn’t score again until the ninth and by that point, it was “all over but the shouting.” Starter Jesus Luzardo was not good yday, but I am expecting a better outing from today’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts thus far. 

Arizona had the worst record in the National League last season, but has gotten shockingly great pitching the last two weeks or so. Three starters have ERAs below 2.00 and one of them - Merrill Kelly - goes this afternoon. Like Alcantara, Kelly did NOT pitch in the previous series between these teams. Kelly came one out shy of a complete game his last time out (vs. Colorado) where he gave up just one run. But I simply think he and his team are “due” to drop one today. As a team, the D’backs are hitting just .185 at home this year! 10* Miami

9* Miami (9:40 ET): I’ll try with the Marlins again Tuesday as they are now 0-4 head to head vs. the D’backs in 2022. It’s been some “tough luck” for the Fish in recent days. Their last four losses have all been by exactly one run, including a brutal 3-2 result on Sunday vs. San Diego when they lost on a three-run walkoff HR (with two outs) in the bottom of the ninth inning. I was fortunate enough to have them +1.5 in that game, but the run line simply wasn’t an option yesterday as they fell 4-3 to Arizona. Fortunately, I’m pretty confident that they WILL win tonight as this losing streak to the D’backs can’t possibly continue. 

As I’ve said each of the L2 days, the Marlins are better than their record as they have a positive run differential on the year. They are also still 3-0 as road favorites of -125 to -175 this season as they ended up closing as underdogs on the ML for last night’s game. A big reason that they are favored here is Jesus Luzardo, who has been excellent thus far with a 3.08 ERA and 1.063 WHIP. Luzardo has allowed 2 ER or less four times and is coming off B2B quality outings where he’s allowed only five hits in 12 IP. Unfortunately two were HR’s last time out and Miami lost that game 2-1. 

Despite that hard luck effort and Miami’s recent hard luck as a whole, expect them to get the win today. Madison Bumgarner simply can’t be trusted at this stage of his career for the Diamondbacks. He was ejected in the first inning of his last start and hasn’t gone longer than five innings this season. All four Arizona wins over Miami this season have been by one run, so the head to head record is quite misleading. Despite winning 10 of 13, the D’backs still have a negative run differential on the year (-11) and are in last place in the rugged NL West. I simply think Miami is a better team. 9* Miami

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox saw their six-game win streak end Monday in the most shocking of manners as they blew a six-run lead in the top of the ninth and lost 12-9 in 10 innings. Now it was a bit of a strange game as the White Sox only managed to collect seven hits, but drew seven walks, which really helped the offensive output. But it still wasn’t enough as Cleveland’s Josh Naylor became the first player in MLB history to collect eight RBI’s in the eighth inning or later (he hit the game-tying grand slam in the top of the ninth) to stun the South Side faithful. The loss dropped the White Sox to 0-4 vs. the Guardians this season. 

Now I was obviously happy about last night’s result as I had Cleveland (+1.5)  on the run line. But you’ve got to think the home team bounces back tonight. Yesterday was actually the most runs scored in a game by the White Sox since a 10-1 win over the Tigers on April 10th. While I noted Cleveland’s superior offensive numbers in yday’s analysis, look for Lucas Giolito to keep them in check tonight. Giolito had a season-best 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win over the Cubs last Wednesday. That was his first win of 2022, but he’s also yet to allow more than 3 ER in any outing. 

Monday’s loss obviously rests squarely with the White Sox bullpen. Hopefully that group doesn’t let us down here. I don’t think that they will as the club has been very profitable, historically speaking, as a big home favorite. They are 71-33 L104 as home chalk here at Guaranteed Rate Field and that includes 25-12 mark when -175 to -250 on the ML. I’m aware that Cleveland starter Cal Quantrill has excellent career numbers vs. Chicago (0.89 ERA), but he’s also never beaten them (seven appearances, three starts). The White Sox offense is due to get going and they obviously “should have” won last night. 6* Chi White Sox

9* Miami (9:40 ET): It’s been a very frustrating stretch of late for the Marlins. All three losses in San Diego over the weekend were by exactly one-run, including a BRUTAL result on Sunday where the Padres walked-off with a pinch-hit, three-run HR with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Now that didn’t bother me as I wisely bet Miami on the run line (+1.5), so I still won. The series before that saw the Marlins get swept at home by Arizona. They get a chance at avenging that Monday and hopefully erasing the painful result on Sunday as well.

Remember that Miami beat San Diego 8-0 on Saturday. This team still has a positive run differential (+8) on the year despite its 13-15 WL record. Their nine one-run losses so far are easily MLB’s most. So what I am saying here is that the Marlins are better than their record. I like their chances at gaining a measure of revenge against the D’backs Monday as all three losses to them at home were by … exactly one run. It’s interesting that Arizona, despite winning five of six to get over .500, still have a -12 YTD run differential.

Elieser Hernandez toes the rubber for Miami in the series opener. He hasn’t had the greatest start to 2022 and did give up all five runs in the 5-4 loss to the D’backs last week. But that was Hernandez’s shortest outing thus far and I’m expecting better tonight. This time he’ll be opposed by Humberto Castellanos, who threw 5 ⅔ shutout innings in Miami last week. But the start before that, Castellanos allowed five runs in two innings. The Marlins were -155 or higher for all three games in the last series. Yes, now they’re on the road. But we’re getting a good price on this matchup. They are 3-0 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 on the ML. 9* Miami 

8* Run Line Cleveland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Guardians +1.5. The White Sox come into this series on a six-game win streak. This despite having not scored more than four runs in any of those games! Clearly, the offense isn’t producing as much as you’d like to see, but the team is obviously getting exemplary pitching. The White Sox have allowed a total of just NINE runs during their six-game win streak. However, with Cleveland’s ability to score runs (#2 in AL) and the fact they swept Chicago the last series between these teams, going with the RL here seems like sound strategy. 

The previous series occurred in Cleveland and the White Sox didn’t do much scoring there either. They put up only five runs in the three games. Even after the six straight wins, the last three of which came in Boston, Chicago is still only averaging 3.2 runs per game. They are hitting just .214 at home and eventually the string of strong pitching performances is going to run out. Starting Monday’s game will be Michael Kopech, who still has yet to record a decision after five previous outings. He did not face Cleveland in the previous series nor has he lasted more than five innings in any start. 

Coming off B2B wins over Toronto, the Guardians will turn to Zach Plesac tonight. Plesac has had a bit of a rough beginning to 2022, but his best outing (by far) came against the White Sox on 4/21 when he went 6 ⅔ innings and gave up just two runs (one unearned). Something else I find interesting about this AL Central matchup is the Guardians have a +10 run differential. The White Sox, who are one ahead in the loss column, have a -13 run differential. Cleveland puts up 4.9 runs per game on the road and that’s all they may need here, especially when factoring in the RL. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

10* Kansas City (12:05 ET): These two American League also-rans split a doubleheader on Sunday and will now wrap up their three-game series early Monday. It’s very rare to see Baltimore check in as a favorite on the ML, though they were for the game they won yesterday. What I see here is an opportunity to fade one of the worst teams in all of MLB at a nice price. Consider that over the last three seasons, the Orioles have been home favorites of -125 to -175 all of FIVE times. They’ve lost four of those games. It’s not like Camden Yards will provide much “homefield advantage” today. On a Monday afternoon, there figures to be only a few thousand people in the park, tops. 

Kansas City has the worst run differential in the AL right now (-39) and third worst overall (only Pirates & Reds worse). But consider that they had to face the Yankees and the Cardinals in their two series before this one. This is an opportunity to win a series for just the second time this season. The only series that the Royals have won so far was at home vs. Minnesota (took two of three). They send Carlos Hernandez to the bump on Monday. While it’s been a bit of a difficult start to the season, Hernandez has had prior success vs. Baltimore, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in a pair of starts last season.

Interestingly, eight of KC’s nine wins have come against right-handed starters. They face righty Tyler Wells today. Wells has an 0-5 team start record and while he’s pitched somewhat better of late, he’s yet to go longer than five innings. In four of Wells’ five previous starts, the Orioles have been held to two runs or fewer. Again, I come back to the notion of being able to fade Baltimore at ‘plus money.’ They’ve allowed the same number of runs as Kansas City has this season and I’m not buying the O’s recent “improved” play. Go with the road team in this one. 10* Kansas City

9* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs +1.5. They were swept in Saturday’s doubleheader (outscored 13-2) and obviously are up against arguably the best team in all of baseball. But I think the home team can avoid the sweep tonight, or at the very worst lose by just a run. 

Marcus Stroman will be starting this game for the Cubbies. He faces a fearsome Dodgers lineup, but has a 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts after tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball his last time out. The Cubs won that game 2-0 as +205 ML underdogs over Milwaukee. So Stroman has pulled off a huge upset before. He’s actually off B2B quality starts, both on the road. I know the team has been slumping recently, but Stroman absolutely gives them a chance Sunday night. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers only had three hits in Game 2 yesterday, benefiting from nine walks and some cluster luck. 

You also have to think that rookie Seiya Suzuki will start to return to early season form for the Cubs. Suzuki began the year hitting at a torrid clip, producing an OBP over .500 and OPS over 1.200. He’s been in a slump ever since that 21-0 win over the Pirates. Assuming he turns it around, the Cubs’ offense should be in good shape, even against someone like Walker Buehler, who has admittedly been lights out for the Dodgers. One thing I noticed with LA is that they are only 4-3 so far as road favorites of -175 or more and one of the wins came yesterday. 9* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

7* Run Line Miami (4:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins +1.5. This bet would have cashed in each of the first three games of this series as Miami lost by just one run in each of the first two games, then pulled away late for a commanding 8-0 victory on Saturday. Despite currently being a game under .500, the Marlins have a positive run differential (+9), which isn’t all that far off from the Padres’ +14. Obviously, yesterday’s result heavily factors into the “closeness” of the two run differentials. But I believe these teams are a lot more evenly matched than the ML odds suggest. 

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season as he’s 4-0 (5-0 TSR) with a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 WHIP. But as we saw yesterday, the Padres’ bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. It gave up five runs in the top of the ninth, which essentially sealed the game. The Miami offense has actually hit pretty well on the road against right-handers, so don’t be surprised if they can get to Musgrove early. Musgrove has certainly benefited from facing the Reds (twice) and the Pirates (MLB’s two worst teams) over his L3 starts. 

Saturday marked the first time this season that San Diego was shut out as Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer rank 1-2 in MLB in both batting average and on base percentage. But remember this lineup continues to be without Fernando Tatis Jr and it is hitting a collective .205 at home so far. The Padres have only mustered five runs in the first three games of the series. One of those runs was unearned and they’ve had just five hits in each of the three games. No one in the bottom five of the order is hitting .200 the L2 games. So look for Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, to turn things around here. Rogers has a 1.69 ERA and 1.062 WHIP on the road thus far. 7* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

7* Houston (8:10 ET): I won with Detroit yesterday, but this is now a horrible spot for them as they head to Houston to face a much better ballclub. Plus, Detroit played a doubleheader on Wednesday (lost the second game). That doubleheader was with the Pirates, one of the few teams in worse shape than the Tigers, who are 8-15 and have the American League’s second worst run differential. They are probably a bottom five team in all of baseball right now and this is a solid price to go against them on Thursday. 

Houston is coming off a three-game sweep of Seattle (here at home) and has won seven of its last nine to move into second place in the AL West. They shut the Mariners out in each of the first two games before breaking out the bats yesterday for a 7-2 victory. It certainly is disappointing to see the ‘Stros sitting at 21st in MLB in runs scored, but the Tigers are one of the few behind them. Detroit is second from the bottom in runs scored this season and has been beyond dreadful when taking their act on the road. So far, they are averaging only 2.3 runs per game away from home and hitting a paltry .215. 

Prior to yesterday’s twinbill, the Tigers had lost six of seven. The most runs they’ve scored in any of their L9 games is FOUR. The only thing keeping this money line reasonable is the pitching matchup as Tarik Skubal has been decent thus far for the Tigers while Jose Urquidy has struggled some for the Astros. Skubal hasn’t allowed a HR this season, but he allowed 35 in 2021 and Houston typically bats well at home vs. left-handers. Urquidy had a solid 2021 season and while right-handed hitters have given him some trouble so far in ‘22, Detroit doesn’t have much power on that side of the plate (save for Javy Baez). This looks like an easy win for the home team. 7* Houston

8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians (6:10 ET): Only Cincinnati (with its horrible pitching) has seen more games go Over this season than has Cleveland, who split a doubleheader here at home with San Diego yesterday. Both games were decided by one run, the first being a 5-4 loss while second being a 6-5 come from behind win. It’s not a great spot for the Guardians here as they face an immediate turnaround with the Blue Jays coming to town. But the starting pitcher Toronto is sending out, Jose Berrios, has one of the more fortunate 5-0 team start records in recent memory as his ERA and WHIP are 4.13 and 1.583. 

Honestly, if it weren’t for the situation of being off a doubleheader and having Aaron Civale starting tonight, I would have considered Cleveland at plus money in this series opener. But Civale has been horrific to this point with a 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP after four outings. It’s actually rather shocking that the team has won twice with him on the mound. One of those was last time out, 9-8 over Oakland. For the second straight start, Civale gave up six runs in four innings or less. He has yet to pitch longer than four innings in any start and opponents are batting a blistering .349 against him. 

With the expectation that both starting pitchers are going to struggle in this matchup, I’m taking the Over. Not surprisingly, all four Civale starts this season have gone Over. Berrios’ numbers are somewhat skewed by his first start (lasted only one-third of an inning and gave up four runs), but he’s very lucky to have the 5-0 TSR and certainly should have allowed more runs to this point. Toronto was thought to have one of the better offenses coming into 2022, but surprisingly Cleveland is scoring more than them so far. The Over is 4-0 the L4 Guardians’ home games where they have been the ‘dog. 8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians

10* Under Reds/Brewers (1:40 ET): The Cincinnati Reds are setting baseball back to the 1890s. Last night’s horrific 18-4 defeat (at the hands of Milwaukee) leaves them at 3-21 on the year with a -82 run differential. They’ve lost eight straight and 19 of 20. This is the unquestioned worst team in all of baseball this year. Unfortunately for the Reds, Thursday afternoon has them again facing the Brewers, who have been cleaning up against the dregs of the NL Central as of late. But I look for today’s game to be a lot lower scoring than yesterday and most recent Reds’ games. Take the Under here. 

If you’ve been paying any attention to baseball this season, then you know there were an abundance of Unders early on. Only two teams have gone Over in more than 55% of their games and leading the charge is Cincinnati at 14-9-1. Seven of their last eight games have seen nine or more total runs scored. But I think this one is going to be different. Part of that is the Reds are dead last in the National League at 3.1 runs per game. They are even worse on the road where they are scoring just 2.7 rpg with a collective .186 average. Figuring that Milwaukee wins again here, they will only have to come up to bat eight times in this game. 

Cincinnati’s woeful offensive numbers figure not to get any better after today as they’ll be facing Adrian Houser, who is one of several Milwaukee starters off to a strong start in 2022. Houser has been especially dominant in his two previous home starts (0.77 ERA, 1.028 WHIP), allowing just one run in 11 ⅔ IP. Brewers’ pitching has allowed only 14 runs to score over the L7 games. Now while the Brew Crew offense did explode for 18 runs last night, such a performance is obviously atypical, especially from them. The team is still hitting only .228 on the year. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is a bit better than his numbers show. 10* Under Reds/Brewers

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): I had thought the Halos were going to come in and take Tuesday’s series opener, but as it turns out, that assessment was a “day early.” After losing 4-0 on Tuesday, Los Angeles bounced back with a 10-5 win last night. But the number of runs scored in Wednesday’s game was a little bit misleading. The Angels got 10 runs off just eight hits and the game went to extra innings. It was 4-4 at the end of nine, but the visitors quickly put things to bed with two HRs in the 10th. Let’s not forget LA had been shutout in three of its previous four games. I like the Under this afternoon. 

A major reason I like the Under here is the starting pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani will go for the Angels, and aside from one bad start (when I faded him 4/14 vs. Texas), he’s been great. You’re talking a 30-5 KW ratio and he’s allowed just two runs and six hits total in his L2 starts. Ohtani was especially dominant when he last started on the road, holding Houston to just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also had 12 strikeouts that day. Ohtani wasn’t quite as dominant last week vs. Cleveland, but still allowed only two runs and five hits. Here he should have little trouble with a Boston lineup that is scoring just 3.3 rpg vs. right-handed starters. 

Prior to two of their last three games going Over (I cashed the Over in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday), the Red Sox had seen the Under go 10-1-1 over a 12-game stretch. They will send veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the bump today. Hill can’t be counted on to go very long, but he has tossed four scoreless in each of his L2 outings. Last time out, he allowed just one hit and didn’t walk anyone either. Hill has allowed only two home runs this season and he’s not being hit particularly hard. The Boston bullpen is solid, which is key as well. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times the Angels scored 5+ runs their previous game. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox

7* Colorado (8:40 ET): All of a sudden, Washington has won B2B games in convincing fashion. They ended their series with the Giants by prevailing 11-5 on Sunday, then it was a 10-2 win yesterday here at Coors Field. The Nationals have now scored 10+ runs in three of their last four games, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them previously. They’d started the season in very poor form (6-15 first 21 games) and went nine straight games scoring three runs or fewer. They may score more than that tonight, but they certainly aren’t going to match what they did yday and I like the Rockies to bounce back. 

Conversely, Colorado got off to a great start, but has slowed down a bit by losing five of eight. The only wins during that time came from a sweep of horrendous Cincinnati. The Rockies were swept out in Philadelphia before that and then suffered that embarrassing defeat here at home last night. But we all know that, traditionally, this is a much better team at Coors. They were 9-4 going into yday at home. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game here and will thankfully be facing a starter that is 0-4 in his five starts (0-5 TSR) with an 8.69 ERA and 2.084 WHIP. That would be the Nats’ Patrick Corbin. 

The Rockies counter with Austin Gomber, a fellow lefty that is coming off B2B quality starts. Granted both were away from home, but Gomber figures to get the job done here. Now, I say that knowing full well the Nationals have hit shockingly well on the road. But those numbers are definitely due to “cool off,” even in this venue. The Rockies are the better team and off a bad loss, so it seems reasonable to expect them to bounce back tonight. 7* Colorado

7* Detroit (1:10 ET): There’s no denying the fact that the Tigers have been slumping lately (lost six of seven) and are off to a rough start (7-14). But look at who they’ve faced recently. Over the weekend, they were out in LA to face the Dodgers. Before that, they were in Minnesota, facing a Twins team that’s gotten off to a hot start. The club will be back on the road this weekend to face Houston. So it’s imperative that the Tigers handle their business today against the equally lowly Pirates. The teams were supposed to play yesterday, but Mother Nature said no. So now it’s a traditional doubleheader on Wednesday. I like the Tigers to take Game 1.

The Tigers’ offense did not do much on the recently completed road trip, but has been a little better at home, producing a .244 average. Note that the last time they played a doubleheader (4/23), it was here in the Motor City and they scored 13 runs in Game 1! Not saying they’ll do that again here, but we should see far more production from the lineup than what we’ve seen over the last week. In Sunday’s loss to the Dodgers, Detroit should have scored more than three runs as they left nine men on base. In this first game, they’ll be facing the combo of Dillon Peters (opener) and Bryce Wilson. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been very bad.

The Pirates’ hitting might be even worse than their pitching and they have been very bad on the road against right-handed pitching. In this first game, they’ll be facing righty Michael Pineda, who had a great season debut where he beat the Yankees thanks to five scoreless innings. He wasn’t nearly as effective last time out (against the Twins), but he’ll be up against a much weaker lineup today. The Tigers’ bullpen has been shockingly good to this point (1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), so they have a huge edge there. Pittsburgh has been outscored by 3.5 rpg on the road thus far and has the worst overall run differential in MLB besides Cincinnati. 7* Detroit (Game 1)

7* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line selections where I am backing the Braves +1.5. After taking Monday’s opener, the Braves lost both games of yesterday’s doubleheader. Today, they’ll be facing Tyler Megill, who in his last start combined with four Mets’ relievers to deliver just the second no-hitter in franchise history. You may recall that I faded them (the Mets) the following day (Phillies were my 10* Game of the Month) and that won. The Mets are obviously off to a great start while the defending World Series Champs (Atlanta) are floundering a bit. But I like the Braves on the RL here. 

Atlanta lost the first game yesterday by just a single run. The second game did see them get blanked 3-0 as they had no answers for Carlos Carrasco. But, the way I see it, the biggest problem facing the Braves right now is a lack of timely hitting. They are hitting just .281 with RISP this season (27th) and yesterday saw them go a putrid 3 for 29 when a runner was on base. You’ve got to think they’ll turn around in that department sooner rather than later. Given how Megill pitched in his last start, you may be thinking now is not that time. But remember Megill only went five innings as part of that no-no. 

More timely hitting, an additional run and a half to work with, plus Ian Anderson starting sounds like a great combo to bet on. Anderson has been great in his two previous road starts, delivering a 2.31 ERA and 0.686 WHIP. After a rough first start (against Cincinnati!), Anderson has really settled in, allowing 2 ER or less each of the L3 starts. I know the Mets have won their first seven series (tied for the third longest streak in the NL since ‘77), but today seems like a great buy low/sell high situation on these two NL East rivals. The Braves are certainly better than what they’ve shown thus far. 7* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

9* LA Angels (7:10 ET): The Angels have been one of the surprise teams so far, getting out to a 15-9 start, which has them in first place in the American League West. Of course, a team that has Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani on its roster should be a contender, year in and year out. The Halos are coming from Chicago where they were blanked on Monday, 3-0, their second shutout loss in the last three games (had previously not been shutout all season). They face a Boston team that's been a bit of a disappointment (9-14) and lost two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. The Red Sox had Monday off, but just aren’t as good as the Angels right now and I’m backing the road team in this one. 

The starting pitching matchup for tonight’s series opener looks like a good one with the resurgent Noah Syndergaard going for Los Angels and Michael Wacha going for Boston. Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.824 WHIP through three starts. The only time the Angels lost with him on the mound was his previous start, as a massive favorite against Baltimore. Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard’s velocity is clearly down, but he has yet to allow a single hit this season when using a curveball or a slider. 

Wacha posted a 5.05 ERA last season for Tampa Bay, but has been much better for Boston so far in 2022. He has a 1.77 ERA and 0.935 WHIP through four starts. So we’ve got two pitchers off to hot starts. Though the Angels did play yesterday, I still trust their offense more here than I do the Red Sox. LA is putting up 5.1 rpg so far on the road and is the highest scoring team in the American League right now. Only three AL teams have scored fewer runs than Boston and they are the teams with the three worst records in the league (BAL, DET, KC). The Angels are 6-2 off a loss this season. 9* LA Angels

7* St. Louis (1:15 ET): Already losers of 8 of their last 10 games, this is a tough spot for the visiting Royals. It’s a one-day stopover in St. Louis before the teams head to Kansas City to play two more games. This is a make-up date from a rainout on 4/13. The Cardinals won the only other game, 6-5. Zack Greinke was supposed to pitch the second game. He’ll pitch here and while the numbers look good for Greinke, there are some advanced metrics which are troubling. Throw in the fact that the Royals’ bullpen has been pretty lousy and they are a relatively easy fade Monday.

St. Louis is off to a much better start than their I-70 rivals. The Cardinals come in with a 12-9 record on the year after beating Arizona 7-5 on Sunday. While that only earned them a series split, the Cards have a top ten run differential and only three teams have allowed a fewer number of runs. Starting today’s game will be Steven Matz, a lefty with a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. The team overcame a shaky start to win Matz’s last time out, beating the Mets 10-5. But in his two starts prior, Matz allowed a total of just one run in 10 ⅔ IP. He has good career numbers vs. the Royals. The Cards also have a clear edge in the bullpen in this matchup.

The way Kansas City lost Sunday does them no favors as they blew an early 4-1 lead. They were swept by the Yankees (at home) and this team now has the worst run differential in the American League. The offense is at the bottom of the league rankings, 28th in average and OPS. They are hitting a positively putrid .211 in games vs. left-handed starters, losing three of the four. The Royals have lost six of the last seven meetings with the Cardinals dating back to last season. I just feel that the money line should be a lot higher for this Monday matinee. 7* St. Louis

9* Under Phillies/Mets (7:05 ET): There’s been a scarcity of runs in this series with the Phillies getting no-hit on Friday, but then also winning 4-1 on Saturday. That latter result was great for me as I had the road team as my 10* Game of the Month, the capper on a stupendous month overall. Now I look to start May by playing the total and I don’t know how you can’t look to the Under here. Max Scherzer is going tonight for the Mets and he’s not only 3-0 in his four starts (4-0 TSR), but has a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. At home this season, the Mets are allowing just 2.4 runs per game and a .161 batting average. 

Scherzer is coming off back to back dominant performances where he went seven innings (both times) and allowed just one run on three hits combined. He had 20 strikeouts as well. Those were wins over the Giants and Cardinals. Scherzer has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this year and the lone HR surrendered came in his first start. It’s difficult for me to see the Phillies, who have collected just 10 hits over the L3 games, doing much against Scherzer as he has not lost in his last 23 starts! In 25 career starts vs. the Phillies, Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He has 201 strikeouts in 158 ⅓ innings. 

Like the Phils, the Mets have scored a total of just four runs in this series. While last night’s result was disappointing for them, especially coming off the no-hitter Friday, there’s no need to sweat as the Mets still have the highest win percentage in the National League. Tonight, they are facing Zach Eflin, who has somewhat struggled so far, but he was much better his last time out when he gave up just one run on two hits against Colorado. Eflin’s road numbers are skewed by the fact he also faced the Rockies at Coors Field. Eflin had another start this year where he didn’t allow any runs in four innings of work. Look for this to be a pitchers’ duel on Sunday night. 9* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Over Red Sox/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore snapped its losing streak (five straight) last night with a 2-1 win in 10 innings. They scored the game winning run on a throwing error, capping a comeback after being held hitless for the first six innings. The O’s didn’t score until the eighth while the Red Sox didn’t score after the first! There’s been very little offense in the series as the Red Sox won Friday’s opener by a score of 3-1. The Under is now 10-1-1 in Boston’s L12 games and 5-0 the L5 times they’ve faced Baltimore. But because of the starting pitching matchup, I’m on the Over today. 

Let’s start with Nick Pivetta, who Boston will send to the mound. The right-handed has an 0-4 team start record to this point and he deserves it, considering an 8.26 ERA and 1.958 WHIP. It’s been three straight starts where Pivetta failed to last five innings and Red Sox opponents ended up scoring 6+ runs in all three contests. Last time out, Pivetta surrendered only a pair of runs (on three hits) in 4 ⅔ innings. But his control issues continued with four walks, upping his season total to 13. Going back to last season, Pivetta is 0-6 over his L12 starts with a 6.61 ERA. I think even Baltimore’s lineup can get to him. 

The Baltimore bats better wake up here, because with Jordan Lyles pitching, the O’s figure to give up some runs themselves. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, not as bad as Pivetta, but he’s also notorious for allowing home runs. Last season saw Lyles lead the American League with 38 HRs allowed. He gave up three in his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Yankees, and it certainly doesn’t help that Lyles has a 6.10 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. The last two games may inspire little confidence in the two lineups, but today’s starting pitching matchup all but ensures we’ll be seeing a slugfest. 8* Red Sox/Orioles