8* Houston (9:05 ET): Following the All-Star Break, the Astros put forth their worst stretch of baseball of the season. At one point, they'd dropped 14 of 22 games, even getting swept twice (both at home). Heading into Tuesday, they'd dropped 8 of 10, which has allowed the AL West race to be a lot tighter than it ought to be. Health was starting to be a concern, but several of the team's stars are now back in the everyday lineup and things are starting to turn around. Last night was their third consecutive victory as they came to LA and beatdown the overmatched Angels, 9-3. Truthfully, there was nothing to ever really worry about w/ the Astros. Remember that this is a team that has outscored its opponents by more than 200 runs this season. They are MLB's best road team (45-21) and although they're 28 games above .500 (78-50), they actually have the win expectancy of an 88-win team! 

Looking at Saturday's matchup, there's REALLY little to worry about. That's because the 'Stros will be sending Justin Verlander out to the mound. Verlander is having an incredible season by an objective measure w/ the exception of wins (only 12), which is an overrated measure of pitcher performance anyway. Verlander hasn't had the best August, and actually gave up four runs in his last start (though the team still managed to win comfortably). However, he still ranks in the top five in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP among all American League starters. This is a great spot for him as he has absolutely dominated the Angels going back to last season when he came to Houston. In his last five starts vs. Los Angeles, Verlander is a perfect 5-0, having allowed just 2 ER in 36 IP. He comes into tonight on a 23-inning scoreless streak here in Anaheim. 

The pitcher who will look to match up for the Angels here is Jaime Barria, who has actually had a better August than Verlander, but he's also been far more inconsistent. Before going 3-0 w/ a 2.36 ERA his L5 starts, Barria had gone 0-6 over a seven-start stretch. The team did lose his most recent outing, at Texas on Sunday. He's faced Houston once this season, back in May, and the Angels lost that one too. Remember that Houston is a very potent offensive team on the road, averaging an impressive 5.5 runs per game. Their run differential away from home is easily baseball's best. They're 16-3 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher on the money line. The Angels have not been good against teams w/ winning records this season, going just 19-38 in such contests. 8* Houston

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): It took 15 innings, but finally the Brewers were able to exact some revenge last night on the Pirates for a five-game sweep that took place last month. The way the game started out, it appeared as if the Brew Crew would be coasting to a series-opening victory. They scored four times in the bottom of the first before the Bucs slowly chipped away, eventually tying things up in the top of the ninth. Incredibly, Milwaukee went 13 consecutive frames w/o scoring a run after that four-run 1st. Things looked dire when Pittsburgh put two on the board in the top of the 15th. But Milwaukee answered w/ three of its own to get the win in walkoff fashion. The way that game went down, Pittsburgh has to be demoralized. Meanwhile, the Brewers are still in the playoff hunt and looking to exact some revenge on their division rival. Look for them to jump all over the Pirates tonight.

"He did a good job standing there." That's a quote from Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell regarding his decision to allow reliever Jordan Lyles to come up to bat in the bottom of the 15th last night. Lyles was able to draw a two-out walk, thus loading the bases and setting the stage for the dramatic rally. Both bullpens are obviously exhausted coming into Saturday, so the two starters will be leaned on heavily. I'm more than comfortable "hitching my wagon" to Brew Crew starter Jhoulys Chacin, who will be making his team-leading 28th start here. Chacin has been on fire of late, winning each of his last three starts while posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP. Opponents are batting just .191 against him during that time. This will be the fourth time Chacin has started against Pittsburgh this season. Curiously, he's winless despite a 1.53 ERA. 

The Pirates will counter Chacin w/ Jameson Taillon, who has pitched well himself of late. Just not as well as Chacin has. Though he comes in riding a streak of five straight quality starts, Taillon was quite fortunate in one of them as he gave up two runs on 10 hits, a complete game effort in Colorado. Chacin is working on a 13-inning scoreless streak. Save for that rather random 11-game win streak they went on surrounding the All-Star Break, Pittsburgh has been very sub-par this season, going just 52-66 otherwise. They've now dropped four in a row after being swept at home by Atlanta to start the week. Milwaukee is a strong team here at Miller Park, sporting a 16-4 record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line. Offensively, the Bucs have been beyond anemic recently. The six runs they scored last night (again, in 15 innings) nearly equaled the number they'd scored (7) in their previous seven games combined. So that's just 13 total runs scored in their last 80 innings! 10* Milwaukee

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): These two teams played a rare five-game series last month. Even rarer though was the Pirates taking all five games! That sweep came in the midst of the Bucs' best stretch of the season, an 11-game win streak that bookended the All-Star Break. Since that streak ended, however, the team's record is just 10-16 and they are essentially eliminated from playoff contention. Getting swept at home (by Atlanta) to start the week certainly didn't help. Meanwhile, Milwaukee still has a more realistic path to the postseason. They are right in the thick of the races for the Wild Card and NL Central, but must take advantage of these slumping Pirates, who can't seem to score any runs of late. Both teams were off yday, but the Brew Crew are at home where they're far more dangerous. They also have revenge and I'll take 'em. 

The Pirates arrive at Miller Park having scored a total of just seven runs their last seven games. They've been shutout three times during that stretch and scored just one run two other times. The collective batting average of the team over the last week is a paltry .204. That should make things easy on Milwaukee starter Wade Miley, who has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts while going at least five innings every time out. Miley now has a 2.12 ERA for the season (nine starts total). The Brewers enter this series having won three of their last four games and they shut out Cincinnati the last time out. This season has seen them go 7-3 when off a shutout victory plus they're also an impressive 15-4 at home when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML. 

The Pirates can't seem to score any runs, so they'll heavily lean on starter Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has pitched well for them, including a win over the Cubs his last start, but overall the team is just 6-8 w/ him on the hill this season. He started one of the games in the five-game sweep of Milwaukee last month, but didn't pitch well as he gave up five runs. He's been better since, but has been victimized by poor run support with the team being shutout in two of his last four outings. Those two shutouts aren't even factored into the Pirates' recent dismal stretch at the plate that I mentioned earlier! I'll call for their offensive woes to continue tonight and for the Brewers to gain a measure of revenge. 10* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. Well, playing this matchup this way certainly didn't work out last night (Marlins lost 5-0), but with the revenge angle still in play, I'll try again. Miami was swept up in Atlanta last month and has now dropped seven in a row to the Braves overall (just 3-13 vs. them for the season). The Marlins have been more competitive here at home though and I think they're more than capable of winning Friday night. Just to be safe, I'll take the added insurances that the RL provides and call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss. 

Elieser Hernandez started for the Marlins last night, but could not make it past the third inning as he allowed multiple home runs. That was all the Braves needed w/ Sean Newcomb allowing just two hits in six shutout innings. I have to admit that tonight's pitching matchup looks a lot more scary on paper, at least from Miami's perspective. Mike Foltynewicz comes in flashing strong form w/ a 0.87 ERA and 0.968 WHIP his L3 starts. He's also 2-0 w/ a 0.69 ERA vs. the Marlins this season. But can he possibly maintain those numbers? I don't think so. Remember that he went just 2-3 in July w/ a 5.72 ERA. Something else to consider is that this could be just the second time all season that Atlanta closes north of -175 on the moneyline when playing on the road. That has opened up quite the tempting price on their opponent here, even on the run line. 

Dan Straily was originally slated to start for Miami yesterday, but was pushed back a day in favor of Hernandez. Now it's up to him to save his manager's decision. Straily has two of his team's three wins against the Braves this season, so that's a good thing. He's working on a full seven days' rest here. The Marlins are actually 9-4 in his L13 home starts. Eventually, Ronald Acuna, Jr has to stop killing Miami, allowing them to pick up a victory in this division rivalry. How about tonight? 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

PLAY STILL VALID AFTER MIAMI PITCHING CHANGE!

8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami has revenge coming into this series as they were swept by Atlanta earlier this month. The Fish have really had their problems w/ the Braves in 2018, losing 12 of the 15 overall meetings including six straight. But here they are getting them at home and will face one of Atlanta's weaker starters. Just last night, the Marlins stunned the Yankees, winning 9-3. It was their third win in the last four games and the one loss came by one run. Atlanta looked good in its last series, sweeping the Pirates while allowing just two runs. But I don't see Miami doing any worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener. Play the RL. 

Sean Newcomb will be the Braves' starter in question tonight. As referenced above, he hasn't really pitched all that well lately. He comes in w/ a 7.63 ERA and 2.153 WHIP his L3 starts after getting hammered by Colorado last week. He lasted only 5 1/3 innings while giving up seven runs on nine hits. That was after allowing five runs on 12 hits (lasted just four innings) his previous start. Believe it or not, but the Braves had won four straight Newcomb starts before losing that last one. But prior to those four straight wins, they'd lost each of his previous five outings. Overall, things have been trending downward for Newcomb, who had a 5.06 ERA in July and is at 7.63 here in August. The Braves are also w/o their closer Aroyds Vizcaino right now due to shoulder inflammation.

Miami will now send a rookie to the mound here in Elieser Hernandez. Originally, it was set to be Dan Straily. The change is probably for the best as Straily had really been struggling of late. Something to note here is that Miami is a far more competitive ballclub at home than on the road. Most of their losses to the Braves this year have been in Atlanta. Hernandez is making just his sixth start of the year here and first in nearly two months. He didn't pitch all that bad previously, allowing 2 ER or less in four of those first five starts. He's also worked as a reliever and has made four appearances against the Braves, posting a 1.13 ERA in eight innings. His work at home has generally been much better than on the road. In August, Hernandez has made six relief appearances and has a 2.00 ERA. Atlanta is 18-8 in one-run games this year, but playing the game on the RL nullifies that good fortune. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* Boston (1:05 ET): After dropping the first two games of the series, the Red Sox gained a measure of revenge last night by beating the Indians 10-4. Early on, it appeared as if Boston might be in some trouble as they were down 2-0 after the top of the first. But the offense finally woke up w/ 10 runs and 25 total bases in what ended up being a pretty easy victory. These are the two highest scoring teams in all of baseball at home, but w/ the game at Fenway Park, that's a clear advantage for Boston. The Sox average 5.6 rpg here at home. They are also an astounding 28-6 in day games this season, which is easily the best such mark in all of baseball. With David Price on the hill this afternoon, they have a clear edge in starting pitching as well. 

Price has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts to go along w/ a 2.42 ERA and 1.030 WHIP. He's gone at least six innings while allowing three runs or fewer in each of the last six starts. Since the All-Star Break, his ERA has dipped down to 1.35. This will be the third straight game he's closed as a significant favorite, so the market definitely respects him. Last time out, Price went seven innings and allowed just two runs in a relatively easy 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Furthermore, Price has pitched quite well in his career against Cleveland, going 10-2 lifetime w/ a 2.24 ERA. Let's also not forget Boston's overall record. This is a team that's won almost 70% of its games (89-39 overall). 

Cleveland is coasting to another AL Central title, but they simply had no competition from the rest of the division. It's very interesting to note that while the Tribe is 37-17 against the rest of the Central, they're only .500 against everyone else. It was very impressive how they were able to come in here and take the first two games of the series. But they had Corey Kluber on the mound Monday and then rookie Shane Bieber took a shutout into the seventh inning Tuesday. It will be another rookie, Adam Plutko, on the hill this afternoon. Plutko comes in w/ a 4.62 ERA in 10 games, seven of those starts. This will be just his second start since the end of June. Last week, he pitched just fine, but the team still lost ... to Baltimore. Might this stage be a little "big" for Plutko? I think so. 6* Boston

6* Arizona (9:40 ET): I had the D'backs yday as they prevailed 5-4. While a popular pick on the board, the win did not come easy for Arizona. In fact, they won on a throwing error in the bottom of the ninth. This after they twice blew a two-run lead. Once again, we find Arizona as a pretty "popular" bet for Wednesday. Again, I'm on them. I think it's going to be very difficult for a short-handed Angels club (no Mike Trout) to "get over" the way last night's game ended. It also doesn't help that they have to face Clay Buchholz here. Look for the home team to sweep this short series.

Buchholz has pitched shockingly well for an Arizona rotation that has largely carried the team this year. No National League team has allowed a fewer number of runs this season than the D'backs. Buchholz has been instrumental in that. He has a 2.10 ERA and 1.068 WHIP after 12 starts and has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any outing all year. His last start was his best yet. He went the distance in San Diego, allowing just one run on five hits. He had 6 K's and 0 walks. It was his seventh time allowing one run or fewer this season! Not only does Buchholz not have to face Trout tonight, but as pointed out in yday's analysis, the Angels are also w/o the DH in this series. That significantly weakens a pretty middle of the road American League lineup. 

The pitching edge here - clearly - is in Arizona's favor. Buchholz is having a great year and all the Angels have to counter is Omar Despaigne. Last week, Despaigne made just his second start of 2018 (1st since 3.31) and gave up five runs in a 7-4 loss to the Rangers. That was his Angels' debut after having his contracted purchased from Miami not long before. Despaigne previously pitched for San Diego, so he's familiar w/ Chase Field, but it's a history he's probably rather forget. In three starts here, he's 0-3 w/ an 8.04 ERA. Despaigne spent a lot of time in the minors this year and didn't pitch particularly well down there either (4.47 ERA). The Angels are simply playing out the string at this point as they're out of playoff contention. Meanwhile, Arizona is in a fierce race in the NL West, meaning they need every win they can get. 6* Arizona

8* Houston (4:10 ET): Despite a late Seattle pitching change, the Astros were finally able to overcome the Mariners last night, winning 3-2. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak to the M's while at the same time also allowing Houston to stay tied (w/ Oakland) for first place in a very competitive AL West. But let's talk about the AL West, shall we? It's a clear three horse race at this point w/ these two and the A's. But the reality is that the race SHOULD be a whole lot less competitive than it is. Look at the respective run differentials. Houston has outscored its opponents by 198 runs this season. Oakland is +82, which is good, but nowhere near the level of the Astros. Then you have Seattle, who has been OUTSCORED by 40 runs in 2018.

I've been saying it all summer, but the Mariners' 72-55 record is quite fraudulent. It has been built on the back of an extremely fortunate 31-17 mark in one-run games (also 12-1 in extra innings!). Oakland actually has a higher win percentage in one-run games (26-10) than Seattle, but their run differential clearly suggests that they're playoff worthy. The Mariners are not. Perhaps it was apropos then for the Astros to prevail by one run Tuesday night. However, there's still more work to be done from the Astros' perspective (at least in my opinion) and that means beating Seattle again this afternoon. Note Houston is 26-15 in day games this season. They're also arguably the top road team in all of baseball (outscoring opp by 2.4 rpg). Seattle, while 38-27 at Safeco Field, averages only 3.6 rpg here and has been outscored significantly. 

The Astros send Charlie Morton to the hill on Wednesday. He's gone 12-3 in 24 starts while posting solid numbers. His last two starts, which have come against Oakland and Seattle, both resulted in the dreaded one-run loss for Houston. It's time for a little payback. Morton pitched well in each game (allowed just five runs total in 11 IP) and has been solid overall since the All-Star Break (allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts). He's already won twice here at Safeco Field this season, allowing just two runs in 13 IP. Seattle will turn to Marco Gonzales, who has struggled of late w/ a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his L3 starts. He's lost all three. Oh, by the way. Jose Altuve is now back for the Astros as well. It's time for them to assert their superiority against their division mates. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Baltimore (12:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Orioles +1.5. Well, it's come down to this. Either the Orioles win today, or they get swept for a third straight time by the Blue Jays. They're 1-11 overall vs. Toronto this season and were swept here back in June and July. Getting swept by the same opponent two straight times is exceedingly rare. I can't remember the last time I saw it happen three times in a row. Recognizing that the O's aren't a good time, I'll again use the run line here to aid in the cause.

Baltimore scored first on Monday, but still lost 5-3. Yesterday's game was close early, but then the Toronto bats exploded for four home runs, three of them coming in one inning. It was an 8-2 game by the end of the fifth and that ended up being the final score. Again, I fully understand that the Orioles aren't having a good season. But neither really is Toronto. This is the first time the Blue Jays will have won a home series since sweeping Baltimore last month. On paper, today seems like the O's best shot at victory. They'll face Thomas Pannone, who is making his first ever big league start. It's not like Pannone excelled in the starter's role down at Triple-A Buffalo either. He posted a 4.91 ERA in six starts. He appeared in nine games total "down on the farm," and didn't win any of them (5.36 ERA). At one point, Pannone had to serve an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's policy against performance-enhancing substances. 

He'll be opposed by David Hess, who made his own big-league debut back in May. He won two of his first three starts, but is 0-6 w/ a 6.61 ERA in 11 starts since. However, in one start against Toronto, Hess did pitch well. He gave up just one run (and five hits) in six innings of work. Despite their 10-0 home record against Baltimore this season, the Jays still have a losing home record overall and have been outscored here. Despite what's happened so far in the series, I think taking the run line remains the best option here. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) 

6* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs are big favorites here and for good reason. They're at home and have Patrick Corbin on the mound. Meanwhile, the Angels continue to soldier on w/o the services of Mike Trout, who is taking time off due to the passing of his brother in law. The Halos have managed to win 8 of 13 w/o Trout so far, but were also fortunate enough to face San Diego last week and swept them. Over the weekend, they dropped three of four to the last place Rangers. Arizona enters this short two-game Interleague set w/ a one-half game lead in the NL West. They too took advantage of the Padres, taking three of four in San Diego over the weekend. When playing after an off-day, the D'backs have gone 11-4 this season. They're the right call Tuesday.

Corbin has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season as he is among the league leaders in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. He ranks in the top 10 in all of the categories just mentioned. Not surprisingly, that's translated into a lot of success recently w/ him winning four straight decision and taking only one loss in his L10 starts. Over his L5 starts, all of which Arizona has won, Corbin has posted a ridiculous 41-3 KW ratio. Another key to his success has been immunity to the home run ball. He hasn't allowed a single HR over his L10 starts. He's allowed just 11 all season in 155 1/3 innings of work. Last time out, Corbin allowed just one baserunner through the first three innings as he turned in a third consecutive quality outing. 

Corbin will be opposed here by Felix Pena. Save for one hideous showing vs. Seattle on 7.29, Pena has generally pitched pretty well this season. He allowed just one run (unearned) on two hits his last time out (vs. San Diego), but did have four walks. Something to consider here is that this series is being contested under NL rules. That means no DH for LA, further hampering an already Trout-less lineup. They are only 2-6 this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. Facing .500 or better opponents has given the Angels trouble all season. Their record vs. such teams is just 19-35, which helps explain why they're nothing more than a .500 team w/ little hope of making the postseason. 6* Arizona

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. Last night saw them fall (again) to the Blue Jays and they're now 1-10 against their AL East rival in '18. It's been a miserable season overall in Baltimore where the team is now 51 games under .500, the worst record in all of baseball. Despite the lack of success against Toronto this season, or the general lack of success overall, I do believe the O's will show up and compete Tuesday. Expect them to do no worse than a one-run loss here.

It's not like Toronto is a fearsome ballclub. They came into this series having just been swept by the Yankees over the weekend. Obviously, this particular division opponent sets up a lot nicer for them. That said, the team is still being outscored at home this year. Take away Baltimore and they're actually just 22-32 at Rogers Centre. Last night was a close game early (Orioles scored first), but the key was a four-run Toronto fifth, which broke the game open. Baltimore did end up outhitting Toronto ever so slightly, 8-7, but went 1 for 7 w/ RISP and left eight men on base. The O's are seeking to avoid what would be a third straight sweep at the hands of Toronto here. Getting swept twice in a row by the same opponent is fairly rare; three times is almost unheard of. I truly believe that Baltimore is going to win a game in this series. 

Tonight's pitching matchup features two struggling starters, opening up the possibility of Baltimore's offense being able to lead the way. They'll face Sam Gaviglio, who has just one victory all season (in 17 starts!) and it came all the way back on May 25th. The team has won just one of his last eight starts overall, against Baltimore ironically, but it was a one-run victory. That's a result we'll be just fine w/ here. Gaviglio has a 5.82 ERA and 1.676 WHIP his L7 starts and last time out surrendered five runs in just 4 1/3 innings - against Kansas City. Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles and while his recent numbers are no better, his numbers over the course of the entire season are better than Gaviglio's. Bundy has actually been a better pitcher on the road this season. He also has a 2.27 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Toronto. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros came through for me in a MAJOR way Sunday, beating the A's 9-4. That win allowed the World Champs to stay in first place in the AL West as they now have a one-game lead over Oakland. Without question, this has been the roughest stretch of the season for the 'Stros as they've dropped seven of nine, not to mention 13 of their last 21. Monday finds them facing a familiar foe as this will be the third series in less than a month w/ Seattle. Houston should be highly motivated as they head to the Pacific Northwest given they were swept by the Mariners (at home) last weekend. In terms of overachieving and underacheiving when it comes to wins and losses vs. run differential, here are your two biggest "offenders." The 75-49 Astros have a run differential of +200, meaning they've actually played to the level of an 85-win team. Meanwhile, the 71-54 Mariners have been OUTSCORED by 42 runs this season, meaning they have the win expectancy of a 58-win team. I expect those gaps to rectify themselves. Love Houston here. 

The Astros send Gerrit Cole out to the mound for Monday's opener. He was outstanding in his last start, striking out 12 (no walks), while allowing just one run on five hits in six innings. Cole did take a loss in the last Seattle series, allowing four runs in 7 1/3. That actually tied for a season-high in runs allowed (done three other times), but his two previous starts against the Mariners saw him allow a total of just three runs in 13 1/3 IP. Cole comes in w/ a 2.71 ERA and 0.983 WHIP (18-7 TSR) and has 17 quality starts to his name. As a reminder, Houston is one of the highest scoring road teams in all of baseball (5.4 rpg) and no other team comes close to their run diff on the road (+2.4 rpg). They are 60-32 their L92 games priced as road favorites of -125 to -175 on the money line. 

In typical Seattle fashion, their one win over the Dodgers over the weekend was by one run while they were outscored 23-2 in the two losses. Those kind of results are how you get to 17 games over .500 despite being outscored on the season. No team has more one-run victories (31), but they've been outscored by 73 runs in the other 94 games. Felix Hernandez rejoins the rotation here and while there was a time it would have been unfathomable to find him in this price range at Safeco Field, that time has clearly passed. King Felix's best days are clearly behind him as evidenced by a 10.53 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed 11 runs in 6 IP. Though only 4.5 games separate these teams in the AL West standings, the real gap in talent is far greater than that. 10* Houston 

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Orioles +1.5. Both of these teams were substantial underdogs on the money line and lost accordingly. In fact, they both went down by exactly eight runs. But the O's, at least on paper, should have more of a chance here in Toronto than they did in Cleveland over the weekend. Meanwhile, this is obviously a drop in class for the Blue Jays after being swept in New York. The last two series between these AL East rivals indicate a substantial edge for the Jays (both sweeps) and all of those games did take place here, "North of the Border." Overall, Toronto is 9-1 vs. Baltimore this season. But I feel the revenge-minded O's will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Play the run line. 

It's almost hard to fathom just how truly wretched this season has bee in Baltimore. They are currently 50.5 games out of first place as well as 50 games under .500! Believe it or not, they do NOT own MLB's worst run differential though. That belongs to Kansas City at -217. (Baltimore -191). But the O's are no better than the second worst team in all of baseball and are 16-46 on the road. But I like the revenge angle and the RL here. One of their losses in Cleveland over the weekend was by one run and they also won a game. They've also won the last two starts made by tonight's pitcher Andrew Cashner and both times Cashner turned in a quality outing. He's allowed just 3 ER, on nine hits, in 14 innings of work over that time. Cashner also owns a 1.93 ERA in three previous starts vs. Toronto this season. 

The Jays really came unraveled yday w/ manager John Gibbons getting ejected, but not before getting into it w/ his own CF Kevin Pillar, who got caught making the final out in the sixth by trying to steal. This is not a great team by any measure either and the fact that they're so prohibitively favored here opens up the rare opportunity to take an additional 1.5 runs and go against them. Starter Marco Estrada is of B2B rough outings where he allowed nine runs in 12 IP, including four home runs. It's difficult to continually sweep the same opponent. Twice in a row is pretty rare, but three straight times is almost unheard of. Baltimore will win a game in this series and note that five of their nine losses to Toronto this year have come by exactly one run. 8* Run Line Baltimore

10* Houston (4:05 ET): Enough is enough! The sputtering Astros are now tied w/ the A's for first place in the American League West after losing here in Oakland each of the last two days. This despite a run differential that's near the top in all of MLB (+195), only surpassed by Boston. They've outscored their opponents by a far greater margin this season than Oakland (+72) has, though the Athletics are certainly viable playoff contenders nonetheless. Overall, Houston has now dropped seven of its last eight games, easily it's worst stretch of baseball this season. Meanwhile, Oakland has now won 40 out of its last 53 games. But help for the Astros comes in the form of Justin Verlander on Sunday. Individually, Verlander is just as overdue for some success as his team is. I'm pushing all my chips to the center of the table on the Astros today. 

Verlander has most definitely been one of the game's best pitchers in 2018. He has a 2.52 ERA and 0.913 WHIP, which rank 4th and 2nd in the American League respectively. He's also third in both strikeouts (217) and innings pitched (164 1/3). Yet somehow, even w/ this team as talented as it is, the Astros have gone just 14-12 in Verlander's 26 starts. Last time out was emblematic of what I'm talking about as he shut Colorado out for five innings before giving up a 2-run HR. Still, that's all he allowed and he exited in the sixth having struck out 11 batters. But Houston lost the game, 5-1. It was the eighth time this season that Verlander recorded 10+ K's. Last time he faced the A's, he threw six shutout innings, yet did not factor into the decision (due to the bullpen). Simply put, it's time for Verlander to earn a 'W.' 

Remember that there's almost a homefield DISadvantage when these teams meet, given what the stats say. Houston entered this series tied w/ Oakland as the two highest scoring road teams in all of MLB. The A's scoring average dips all the way down to 3.8 rpg at home. Yet, despite having scored and allowed roughly the same number of runs at home this season, their record here is now 37-24. They hand the baseball to Sean Manaea on Sunday and while he's had a good season, he's not as good as Verlander on his best day. Yes, I'm all too aware that the Astros are still w/o Jose Altuve. But it is time. Time, that is, for them to finally breakthrough and play like the team we saw for the first four months of the season. 10* Houston

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): Colorado won ANOTHER lucky won last night, this time scoring five runs over the final two frames to stun the Braves, 5-3. The game required an addition inning after the Rockies were able to tie things up w/ a three-run rally in the ninth. All three runs came w/ them down to their final out. It was Colorado's third straight win here in Atlanta, the second where they scored three runs in the ninth to either win or tie. This is an addition to their three one-run victories over the Dodgers in the last series, two of those coming in walk-off fashion. Though in prime contention for both the Wild Card and the NL West, the Rockies should feel pretty fortunate to have a 67-56 record considering they've been outscored on the season. They're one of baseball's biggest overachievers, at least in my eyes. 

Home teams don't get swept very often in four game series. That's the prospect they are facing Sunday and will give the baseball to Anibal Sanchez, who has a 3.17 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 16 starts this season. His last start was not his strongest as he gave up five runs in five innings, but such outings are rare from Sanchez. The Braves have been a good home team all year, so the results of this series have been surprising to me. They came in riding a six-game win streak. Granted, five of those were at the expense of the lowly Marlins. But now there's a real sense of urgency w/ Philadelphia only one-half game back in the National League East. The team is 5-2 this season when on a losing streak of three or more games.

Colorado goes w/ German Marquez here. He has a 4.58 ERA and 1.341 WHIP in 24 starts w/ the Rockies going 13-11. His last time out, Marquez won as a big underdog against Justin Verlander and the Astros. But bottom line is that the worm has to be ready to turn sooner rather than later against these Rockies after all the recent close victories. They are 21-12 in one-run games this year, a sign of good fortune. Atlanta is 16-8 themselves in one-run games, but has a far better YTD run differential. I just do not see the Braves being swept at home. 8* Atlanta

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves came into this series w/ the Rockies pretty hot as in they'd won six straight games. Granted, five of those came at the expense of the hapless Marlins, but they still could lay claim to having the best run differential in the National League. (That means something). Unfortunately though, this series has not gone according to script for those rooting for the home team. Atlanta has lost both games, including 11-5 yday. I took a tough loss on them in the opener when they allowed three unearned runs in the top of the ninth. The Braves still lead the NL East mind you, but by just one-half game over the Phillies. So there should be a real "sense of urgency" heading into Saturday's contest at SunTrust Park. I'm still a believer, which is more than I can say for my view on Colorado.

I look at the NL West standings and am absolutely mystified at how the Rockies can be ahead of the Dodgers. It is LA that now lays claim to the NL's best run differential (+103) while the Rockies have actually been outscored over the course of the 2018 season (-16 run differential)! So consider this team's 66-56 WL record to be pretty fraudulent. They've played to the level of a 59-win team. I'm simply not buying them as legit playoff contenders. I certainly don't expect their offense to duplicate what they did last night. Meanwhile, the Braves are 33-19 off a loss this year. 

For years, Colorado's offensive production has "fallen off a cliff" when leaving the freindly conditions of Coors Field. The drop-off isn't quite as striking in 2018, but still the team only averages 4.4 rpg on the road w/ a .232 team batting average. As for the pitching, starter Antonio Senzatela is winless in three away starts this year, posting a 5.71 ERA. Senzatela again replaces Chad Bettis (disabled list) in the rotation after spending some time himself on the DL. Tonight will be his first time starting an actual game in 16 days. Atlanta counters w/ Mike Foltynewicz, who has been quite sharp of late. He's posted a 1.83 ERA his L3 starts, winning all of them. Truthfully, it's been a strong season overall. He has a 2.86 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 23 starts. Last time out, he went eight innings and allowed just one run against Miami. There was a stretch in July where Foltynewicz allowed 4+ ER in four consecutive outings, but other than that he's allowed two or fewer in all but one of the other 19! 8* Atlanta

Note: Today's originally scheduled *10* TOTAL POWER was set to be Under Miami-Washington. But a pitching change cancelled plans. After then re-examining today's card, Power has found another O/U play worthy of the designation! 

10* Over Giants/Reds (7:10 ET): The Giants have had issues scoring runs lately, like last night when they were beaten by the Reds 2-1 in 11 innings. The Under is now 5-0-1 their past six games w/ the offense averaging just 2.5 rpg during that time. But at least with Madison Bumgarner on the hill tonight, it certainly shouldn't take many runs to win tonight, right? Wrong! 

Bumgarner has struggled on the road this year. He has a 4.18 ERA and 1.639 WHIP and had been winless before his last start where he was bailed out by a late rally against the Dodgers' failing bullpen. It's also interesting to note that over his last three starts Bumgarner's WHIP (1.50) is identical to his ERA. That's something you often don't see and a clear sign he's gotten away w/ not allowing many runs despite a high number of baserunners. Walks are usually a culprit in an issue such as this and sure enough MadBum has eight of them those L3 starts. Even though the Reds have been held to three runs or fewer in five straight games, I think they'll be able to score at least a few in tonight's ballgame. 

The good news for the Giants is that their offense should wake up here against Matt Harvey. Harvey did pitch well his last time out, but that was his first quality effort in nearly two months. He's also allowed a total of seven home runs his last four starts. When Harvey faced the Giants earlier this year, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs. It should be noted that there were plenty of hits in last night's game (19 total), but the two teams combined to go just 2 for 14 (1 for 7 each) w/ RISP and left 16 runners on base. Watch as this one sneaks Over the total. 10* Over Giants/Reds

10* Houston (10:05 ET): The Astros snapped an UGLY nine-game home losing skid on Wednesday, routing the Rockies 12-1. That's the kind of performance we've been accustomed to seeing from the reigning World Series Champs this season as they've now outscored the opposition by 202 runs. Tonight, they begin a very important series w/ the second place team in the AL West, that being Oakland. The gap is just two games in the standings, but Houston's run differential is vastly superior. Also, homefield may actually be a DISadvantage when these teams meet as they are 1-2 in all of MLB in runs scored on the ROAD. Houston is just 33-29 at home, but an incredible 41-18 on the road where they are an amazing +2.6 rpg over their opponents. Meanwhile, Oakland's offense declines from 5.5 rpg on the road all the way down to 3.8 rpg at home! Take the road team!

True to form, the Astros a perfect 6-0 in Oakland this season, outscoring them 50-16! Now all six wins came before the A's caught fire. Over the last two months, Oakland is 32-11 overall and they took three of four games in Houston right before the All-Star Break. However, what has greatly aided the A's is the fact they've generally been a far luckier team than the Astros. Specifically, they have gone 25-10 in one-run games. They are far less fraudulent than, say Seattle, but not on the level of the "Big Four" in the American League (those four teams being the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Indians). Note that before losing in extra innings to Seattle (2-0) on Wednesday, the A's previous three wins all came by exactly one run. 

We have a matchup of two veteran pitchers for Friday's opener, both of whom are having "turn back the clock" type seasons. Houston's Charlie Morton is 12-3 in his 23 starts this year w/ a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Of the 22 parks he has wins at in his 10-year career, this one is not yet among them. So this should be a "special" game for Morton. Last time out saw him toss another quality effort, his 17th of 2018. He's allowed more than 3 ER just three times all year. As for Oakland, they go w/ Edwin Jackson, who shockingly has not allowed a single earned run in any of his last three starts. But how long can that streak last? My guess is "not much longer" as here he faces a team that can certainly score in bunches (George Springer expected back as well). Another thing to consider is that Jackson has faced a fairly weak slate of opponents since coming into the rotation. This will be his toughest test to date and one I do not expect him to pass. 10* Houston 

8* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): The Phillies were able to exact a little bit of revenge on the Mets last night by taking Game 2 of the doubleheader, 9-6. But that doesn't even begin to atone for what happened to them in the first game of the twinbill where they lost in absolutely humiliating fashion, 24-4. The Mets are not a good team (obviously!), so look for them to still be highly motivated entering Friday evening's contest in the City of Brotherly Love. Yesterday's events leave the Phils 1.5 games back of the Braves (who lost yday) in the National League East w/ a quarter of the season still to play. The Wild Card is also obviously still in play. Do I think the Phillies are as good as some of the other contenders? No. But are they SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Mets? Absolutely.

As you might expect to find, it was a real "comedy of errors" in Game 1 of the doubleheader yday. Four errors from the defense and three position players were used to pitch. The Mets had a 10-run inning. Look for none of that to be repeated moving forward. Instead, tonight we should get a strong start from Aaron Nola, who checks in w/ a 2.28 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the season. He's 13-3 in 24 starts (17-7 TSR) and has allowed 1 ER or less 13 times. In addition to ranking third in the National League in both ERA and WHIP, Nola is 5th in innings pitched (154) and 7th in strikeouts (149). Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings against the hapless Padres, a team on that's pretty much "on par" w/ the Mets offensively. That was on the road. At home, Nola is unbeaten (8-0) in 11 starts and the team has gone a perfect 11-0.

This game does set up to be a bit of a "pitchers duel" w/ Noah Syndergaard toeing the rubber for the Mets. But Nola has beaten Syndergaard before, doing so last season. It's Syndergaard's only career loss to the Phillies, but Nola is 4-1 all-time against the Mets. Furthermore, while the Mets have generally been successful since Syndergaard returned to the rotation (won 4 of his 5 starts), but he has a 4.43 ERA in his L3 outings. These "pitcher duel" type matchups seem to suit Philly well as they're a perfect 4-0 this season at home when the total is 7 or less. Led by Nola's 11-0 TSR, they are 40-20 overall at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets have shockingly scored 46 runs the L3 games and are obviously due to cool WAY off. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Tigers/Twins (8:05 ET): Outside of Cleveland, the American League Central pretty much stinks this year. No other team in the division is likely to top 75 wins. So, both the Tigers and Twins are basically playing for little else but pride at this point. Minnesota is better (and at home), but I'm not about to lay this price on them even w/ Detroit's terrible (18-41!) road record. Instead I'll turn to a total which I think is a shade too low. The last series between these teams (contested in Detroit last week) saw all three games go Under the total. In fact, the Under is now 8-1 this season when these teams meet (cashed 5 straight times). But I think we're in store for a higher scoring affair tonight. Take the Over. 

Detroit only averages 3.3 runs per game on the road, which helps explain why their record is so lousy. But they certainly give up their fair share of runs as well. They allow 4.9 rpg away from home for the season and have given up at least six in each of the last four road games. Tonight's starter Francisco Liriano has seen the Under cash in each of his last three starts, one of those against the Twins last weekend. But Liriano has not had a great season by any means. He's 3-7 in 18 starts (6-12 TSR) w/ a 4.71 ERA and 1.463 WHIP. Lately, his numbers have been even worse as he's lasted no more than five innings in any of his previous five outings. He gave up three runs in five innings vs. the Twins last Saturday and finished w/ more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). In dropping 9 of their last 12 games overall, the Tigers have allowed 6+ runs in six of those losses, including each of the last two days. 

Starting tonight for Minnesota will be Ervin Santana. It'll be just his fifth start of 2018 (finger injury), but his second straight against the Tigers. Last time out, he gave up only three hits, but two were home runs and thus ended up allowing a total of five runs. All told, it has not been a positive return to the rotation for Santana. His four starts have yielded a 6.53 ERA and 1.404 WHIP. Somehow, the Twins have still managed to win three of the four, but I wouldn't expect that win percentage to continue. Santana has allowed at least three runs in every start and as he himself pointed out the bullpen is a lot weaker now w/ closer Fernando Rodney having been dealt at the trade deadline. The good news for Minnesota is that they pounded out 11 runs the last two games (against Pittsburgh). Both teams should score more than expected here. 8* Over Tigers/Twins

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Pardon the pun, but Colorado was "rocked" yesterday, losing 12-1 to the Astros. I'm happy to report that I was on the right side of that one. For the Rockies, the loss snapped a four-game win streak. Three of those wins (all against the Dodgers) were by exactly one run, two of them coming in the final at-bat. This is a team that has largely overachieved in 2018 as they have a 64-56 record despite being outscored this season by 24 runs. That run differential has them at the level of a 57-win team, not a 64-win one. Tonight, they begin a new series in Atlanta against a red-hot Braves team that has won five straight (just swept the Marlins). There's nothing phony about this Braves team either as they have the NL's best run differential at +97. 

The Rockies starter for Thursday night is Jon Gray. Each of his last seven starts have resulted in a win for the team, but despite this, his overall numbers remain quite mediocre. Three of his last four starts have seen the Rockies prevail by just a single run. Last time out, he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. For the year, he has a 4.74 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 22 starts. His TSR is 13-9, so before this win streak began, he was a losing proposition at the betting window. I can't see it continuing. Keep in mind that Gray had to be sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque at one point to work on his mechanics. Obviously, the move has since paid off, but I still don't view him as any kind of dominant starter. Let's also not forget how Colorado's offense generally declines away from home. 

The big story here for Atlanta is the status of Ronald Acuna, Jr, who is perhaps the hottest hitter in all of baseball right now. Acuna had homered in five consecutive games before getting hit by a pitch yday. He exited w/ a sore forearm. But whether or not he plays, I still have faith in the Braves here. Having Julio Teheran start definitely helps as he's off a masterful start here at home last Saturday vs. Milwaukee. He allowed just one run on two hits. Teheran has pitched well against Colorado in his career, going 5-1 w/ a 2.31 ERA in nine starts. He did not face them earlier this year when the Braves took two of three at Coors Field. Atlanta is a much better team at home than on the road (34-23 at home), so considering what they were able to do in Denver back in April, I absolutely love them here (especially at this price!). 10* Atlanta 

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers are heading in the wrong direction right now. They've lost five in a row, four of them coming by exactly one run. The fifth loss saw them allow four runs in the top of the ninth (lost 5-2). So it's been quite the unlucky stretch. Closer Kenley Jansen is clearly missed, but I believe the team can fight through. Tonight, they hope to avoid being swept by the rival Giants. Despite what's happened the last two days, I feel the Dodgers are still the vastly superior team. They still own the NL's second best run differential (+92) while the Giants have been outscored by 33 runs this season. After losing four straight games in the ninth inning, it's time for LA to break through. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will pitch tonight for the home team. This is his first start since May 2nd as he's been on the DL due to a groin strain. He's made two home starts in 2018 and didn't give up a run in either. He's 3-0 in six starts overall w/ a 2.12 ERA and 0.876 WHIP. Look for the Dodgers' bullpen to improve as starters Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda have both been moved there. The Giants aren't a particularly good road team as they only average 3.6 runs per game. They're also 5-9 off three or more consecutive victories. 

On the mound, the Giants go w/ Derek Holland, who has also spent time working out of the bullpen himself this season. He's also started 22 times. He's never beaten the Dodgers in four tries, posting a 6.38 ERA. Two of those four starts have come here in '18 and he's allowed seven runs in 8 1/3 innings. Look for the Dodgers to finally get it done tonight. 8* LA Dodgers

6* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros have now lost NINE straight home games and five in a row overall. To call these streaks highly irregular would be putting it midly. This is a ballclub which still stands at 73-47 and has outscored its opponents by 191 runs over the course of the season. They are battling a number of injuries, yes, but one would have thought their pitching could have held things together. Last night's loss came as huge favorites w/ Justin Verlander on the hill. Verlander had retired 13 of 14 batters and had a 1-0 lead when things began to unravel. Colorado wound up scoring in each of the final four innings and the Astros managed little offensively. But still, with Gerrit Cole on the mound this evening, I have to believe this losing streak comes to an end. 

The current five-game skid matches Houston's longest of the entire season. They have not won a home game since before the All-Star Break, which - again - is downright shocking. Equally as shocking though is the fact Cole is 0-3 his L3 starts despite a 1.053 WHIP. He did allow four runs his last time out (tied season high), but consider he'd dropped only two decisions total before the current losing streak. He has an 8-3 team start record at home this season w/ a 2.76 ERA and 0.935 WHIP, right in line w/ his overall numbers. He's 3-1 w/ a 2.56 ERA all-time vs. Colorado. That won-loss record doesn't even include an 8-2 Astros victory over the Rockies earlier this season where Cole allowed just two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 IP (no decision for him). That was also in Coors Field where Colorado is obviously a lot more prolific offensively. 

While the Astros are underachieving this year relative to their run differential (they have the run diff of an 83-win team), Colorado is overachieving. They've been outscored by 13 runs this season, meaning they've played to the level of a 58-win team. Over the weekend, they pulled out three consecutive one-run victories over the Dodgers, which should be considered highly fortunate. Starting tonight for them will be Tyler Anderson, who has struggled of late w/ a 6.75 ERA his L3 starts. Like Cole, he has a 0-3 TSR his L3 outings. He is also winless in three Interleague starts this season and tonight marks the first time in his career he's ever started a game in an AL park. Anderson faced Cole back on 7.24 and also did not factor into the decision. 6* Houston

10* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): Well, Cleveland's pitching has certainly done its job in this Interleague series, holding the Reds to just four runs in two games. Yet, both games have managed to go Over the total by virtue of the Indians' offense, which has exceeded expectations. The Tribe typically do no score as many runs on the road compared to at home. In fact, they are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball. On the road, their scoring average dips down to 4.5 rpg, over a full run less per game than what they average at Progressive Field. The key in this series though has been a few big innings. Monday, they had a seven run inning, which was the difference in a 10-3 game. Last night, they jumped on the Reds early w/ six runs in the first two frames. If we can avoid that kind of "clustering," then I have no doubt that the Under comes in tonight. Something else to note is that the number is a lot better than last night as this time we're a half-run ABOVE the key number of 9.

As expected, Corey Kluber shut down the Reds w/ little difficulty last night. He allowed just one run on five hits. That followed a strong effort by Monday starter Mike Clevinger, who held the Reds to just two runs. Tonight's starter is Shane Bieber and he should continue the trend as he's off a very strong outing where he didn't allow any runs in 6 2/3 IP. In fact, he gave up only three hits. Sadly though, Cleveland lost the game 1-0. Still, the Under has come in for each of Bieber's last three starts and he should have little difficulty in shutting down a Reds offense that has shown little signs of life the last two days. 

Cleveland's offense, theoretically, should be hurt by the fact they lose the DH from the batting order. It's had no effect so far, but I believe tonight it will catch up w/ them. I already talked about how the number of runs per game scored declines on the road. Reds pitching simply has not done a good job in the series, but it might be different tonight w/ Robert Stephenson on the hill. Stephenson is off a successful stint in the minors where he went 6-0 w/ a 1.23 ERA in his final seven starts down at Triple A-Louisville. These teams have gone Over in every meeting this season, but tonight breaks the trend. 10* Under Indians/Reds

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Like the Astros, the Dodgers are significantly better than their won-loss record. They lead the NL in run differential (actually tied w/ the Cubs at +93), a metric which I have always felt is a better predictor of future success than actual won-loss record. That said, Dodger Blue can't afford to sit back and just rely on said run differential. They are "somehow" tied w/ the Rockies (who have been outscored over the course of the season) for second place in the NL West and just four games up on the team that beat them Monday, San Francisco, who has an even worse run differential (-34) than Colorado. Even Clayton Kershaw couldn't prevent LA from losing a fourth straight game last night. But I think they'll come through tonight in what feels like a "must-win" spot.

While the Dodgers won't have Kershaw on the bump here, the Giants won't have Madison Bumgarner either. The former Cy Youngs squared off last night and the end result was a 5-2 SF win that was decided not by the two aces, but rather a beleaguered Dodgers bullpen that is sorely missing closer Kenley Jansen. The Giants scored four times in the top of the ninth, making it the third straight game they entered the final frame tied/ahead and lost. Before last night, they'd lost three straight one-run games to the Rockies. But against Andrew Suarez tonight, I don't envision the Dodgers allowing this one to be decided by the bullpens. Suarez comes in w/ a 5.61 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The last time he pitched away from home, he allowed eight runs in five innings (at Arizona). 

The key for the Dodgers in this series is they have depth in their starting rotation while the Giants really do not. Alex Wood gets the nod tonight and he has been just outstanding of late. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and had he recorded one more out in two of the nine, then we'd be looking at nothing but quality starts during that stretch. Expect Wood to outduel Suarez in this battle of southpaws and for the Dodgers offense to actually show up for once. It's not like the Giants are a good road team; they average only 3.6 rpg away from home. 6* LA Dodgers

6* Houston (8:10 ET): Shockingly, the Astros have dropped EIGHT straight games at home. This includes sweeps at the hands of Texas and Seattle, the only two times they've been swept all season. Incredibly, their last win at Minute Maid Park came all the way back before the All-Star Break! Over the weekend, they suffered the indignity of a four-game sweep here at home (rare!) at the hands of the Mariners. Certainly, that series did not go the way most had anticipated. But they'll be up against another overrated foe this week, that being Colorado. With Justin Verlander on the bump Tuesday, I expect the 'Stros to roll and the losing streak to finally end. 

Curiously, Houston has been a lot more dominant on the road this season. Their run differential is way higher away from Minute Maid Park where they're only 32-28 overall, including a stunning 5-9 when Verlander starts! But it's only a matter of time before that gets rectified. Note Verlander has a 3.14 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in his 14 home starts. The fact he is off his worst start of the year (was ejected to boot) only strengthens my belief we'll sse a bounce back. Verlander has never lost to the Rockies in four career starts, posting a 1.88 ERA. Consider that he still is top four in the American League in ERA, WHIP, innings pitched and strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing wrong w/ him and he's due for better results moving forward. Truthfully, wins are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher as Verlander is one of the game's best. 

Meanwhile, the Rockies should feel incredibly fortunate to be just a game back of Arizona over in the NL West. This is a club that's been outscored over the course of the season and they were lucky to take three of four from the Dodgers over the weekend (all three wins by one run, two in walkoff fashion). Maybe the fact they are in a AL park (DH!) somewhat nullifies any offensive decline from being removed from Coors Field. But starting in Houston won't be of any benefit to German Marquez, who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.376 WHIP, yet has a very similar TSR to Verlander (see what I mean about wins being a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher?). Marquez did have 10 strikeouts in his last start, but he also gave up 10 hits over six innings, meaning he was lucky to get away with allowing just three runs. As indicated by the oddsmakers here, the Astros are an infinitely superior team compared to the Rockies, especially w/ their ace on the bump. 6* Houston

8* Arizona (8:05 ET): The D'backs lost to the Rangers last night, a killer loss considering two of the three teams chasing them in the NL West are going head to head right now. The loss leaves them just one game ahead of both Colorado and the Dodgers in the division, as well as five up on the Giants (who beat LA Monday). While in the midst of a nine-game road trip, Arizona desperately needs better results. They're 1-3 so far on the trip, which comes against nothing but last place teams. Tonight is the last game of a short stint in Texas and one they simply must win before heading to San Diego for the weekend. I think they will as it was one mistake (3-run HR allowed by Greinke) that cost them last night. 

Generally speaking, pitching has NOT been an issue for Arizona this season. They're 3rd in all of MLB in team ERA and tied for fourth in quality starts. Only Boston & Houston, the two best teams in baseball, have given up fewer runs this season. Starting here will be Pat Corbin. He is having himself a fine season w/ a 3.09 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 24 starts. Given those numbers, he probably deserves better than a 14-10 TSR. The team has won each of his last four outings and has done so in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring the opposition 28-8. Last time out, Corbin tossed 7 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball against against Philly w/ 9 K's. Going back a bit further, opponents are batting just .227 against him his L9 starts. Corbin's KW ratio during that time is an impressive 66-10. 

The D'backs team batting average for the year is surprisingly low. But they're still 8th in MLB in runs scored per game. They also benefit from a DH being added to the lineup here and they're up against the team that gives up the highest number of runs per game at home in all of baseball. That's right. Texas allows more rpg in Arlington (6.0) than Colorado does at Coors Field (5.4). Tasked with starting tonight for the Rangers is Yovani Gallardo, who should feel extremely fortunate to have an 8-1 team start record considering his 4.98 ERA and 1.382 WHIP. The key for him has been getting the highest run support of any starter in all of MLB. The Rangers are averaging an astounding 11.43 rpg in Gallardo starts. No other pitcher is even close to that w/ the Indians' Carlos Carrasco (9.8) being 2nd. Eventually we're going to see that average drop and I say "why not here?" 8* Arizona

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. It hasn't been a very good 2018 for the Tigers, but they've certainly had their way w/ the Sox, going 9-1 head to head against them. That includes a 9-5 win last night where they rallied back from an early three-run deficit and really beat up on the White Sox bullpen. Key was having Nicholas Castellanos back in the lineup (missed Sunday's Game) as he continued his torrid hittting against Chicago pitching w/ a career-high five hits. Interesting though is that of the nine wins this year against Chicago, last night was just the third by more than two runs for the Tigers. Tonight, I expect the underdog to do no worse than a one-run loss. Looking at these two clubs as a whole, I would not say that Detroit is so significantly better that they should be dominating to this degree. 

The White Sox probably should have been up even more last night, but ended up going just 2 for 9 w/ RISP. "We had more opportunities to add on runs, but we left them out there," manager Rick Renteria said. While another loss means little in the big picture, the White Sox have to be sick of losing to the Tigers at this point. Tonight, Renteria hands the baseball to Lucas Giolito, who was once thought of as a top prospect in the organization. He hasn't necessarily panned out that way (largely due to control issues), but the team is basically .500 (11-12) in his 23 starts. He was roughed up his last time out, but that was against the Yankees. Detroit's offense is nothing like what he faced there. In fact, the Tigers average fewer runs per game than do the White Sox. 

Given Detroit's success in the season series, it should not be that big of a surprise to find that tonight's starter Blaine Hardy is 2-0 against the White Sox in '18. He allowed just one run in both starts. However, he allowed five his last time out in what ended up being a 6-0 loss to the Angels. The Tigers have actually "forgotten to score" (i.e. shutout) in each of Hardy's last two starts. It's rare to find Detroit favored like this on the money line, which thus opened up the RL and I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): Well, I lost w/ the Under last night as Cleveland actually remembered to "bring their bats" for this short road trip down I-71. Usually, the Indians are not a prolific offensive team away from Progressive Field. I went through this in yday's analysis, but they average only 4.5 rpg on the road, which is significantly down from the 5.7 rpg they average at home (2nd highest average in MLB). So consider yday's 10-run effort to be an abberration. Something else I mentioned in yday's analysis is how the Tribe typically score a good bulk of their runs in "cluster" form, i.e. one big inning or game. Sure enough, yesterday they had a seven-run inning, which was the difference. I don't expect that to happen again tonight and am back on the Under. 

One thing is for sure and that's we won't have to worry about one side of the ledger w/ Cleveland tonight. Corey Kluber will toe the rubber and that should take care of the Reds' offense. I'm a bit shocked to see that the Over is 15-8 in Kluber starts this season considering the former Cy Young winner has a sub-1.00 WHIP. He did allow four runs his last time out, but the Tribe still won that game, 7-4. Still, Kluber has a 0.729 WHIP his L3 starts, which is just outstanding. He threw a CG shutout his previous start and keep in mind this is a National League lineup he'll be facing tonight. That means no DH. In the past, Kluber has had little difficulty against the Reds. He's 3-0 against them w/ a 1.96 ERA in his career.

Of course, the National League rules work "both ways" and that means Cleveland will be w/o the DH as well. That should (theoretically) further weaken an offense that already suffers away from home (see above). They'll face Sal Romano (not the Mad Men character) tonight and his last time out saw Romano allow just one run on two hits. Granted, it was against the hapless Mets, but Romano has pitched pretty well of late overall. He's certainly an upgrade over last night's starter, Homer Bailey. In fact, back on 7.10, Romano beat Cleveland by holding them to four runs (three earned) over 7 1/3. He also gave up just five hits. Truthfully, I don't like the number (O/U line) so much here, but w/ the Over now 4-0 when these teams meet this season, I say it's "high time" for an Under to come through. 8* Under Indians/Reds

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Don't take the bait on what might look like a very tempting price on Madison Bumgarner Monday night. Of course, it takes one heck of a counterpart to put MadBum in such a price range, so it should come as little shock to find Clayton Kershaw starting opposite him for the Dodgers here. These two have had several battles in the past, though none until now in 2018. They've split the first 10 matchups against one another w/ the Dodgers and Giants winning five each, though Kershaw has the slightly better numbers head to head. To me, this price range is more than justified due to the respective teams. Though they've lost three straight, the Dodgers still lead the NL in run differential (+96) while the Giants should feel fortunate to still be hovering around .500 as they've been outscored by 37 runs this season. 

I cashed Los Angeles as my top NL West play for August back on Thursday. But then they subsequently dropped the next three games in Colorado, each of them by one run. The last two were both pretty excruciating as they lost in walkoff fashion both times. Saturday night saw them give up a three-run HR in the bottom of the ninth. Yesterday, it was a bases loaded walk that decided the game. Kenley Jansen being out definitely hurts the bullpen, but for tonight, it's "Kershaw to the rescue." The former Cy Young winners comes in w/ a 2.58 ERA and 1.066 WHIP and has made seven straight quality starts since the start of July. All-time against the Giants, Kershaw is 22-10 w/ a spectacular 1.60 ERA. He last faced them all the way back in April and allowed just one run in seven innings. His first start of '18 was also against them and there he again allowed just one run, this time six innings. 

Bumgarner, like Kershaw, has a TSR not befitting a pitcher of his caliber. However, on the road this season, MadBum has not pitched all that well. The team is just 1-4 in his five starts away from home due to a 4.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP. Overall, the Giants are a pretty lousy road team as their record is just 25-34 and they average only 3.6 rpg. As you might be aware, Chavez Ravine has long been one of the top parks for visitor run suppression, both due to its confines and the stellar pitching of the home team. This Giants' offense has topped five runs in its last nine games to begin with, so don't expect Bumgarner to get a lot of support in this one. After an "unlucky" 2-4 road trip (all 4 losses by one run), I see better results ahead for the Dodgers upon returning home. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): Save for Cleveland, the American League Central has been a complete "dumpster fire" in 2018 as the division is likely to produce four teams w/ at least 85 losses. Two of them meet here w/ the Tigers hosting the White Sox. Calling Detroit "the better team" here speaks volumes over the current state of the White Sox, who are 33 games below .500 (Tigers are 20 games below). The biggest reason for the gap between the two is the fact the Tigers are 8-1 against the White Sox this season. That includes a three-game sweep on the Southside of Chicago back in June. Though it's interesting to note that the Tigers have hardly "dominated" their division rival. All but one win has come by one or two runs. I think it's time for Chicago to exact a little revenge Monday night. 

The White Sox are off a hard-fought series w/ Cleveland. Down 9-1 heading into the bottom of the eighth Sunday, they fought their way all the way back to 9-7 before running out of outs. While they finished up the six-game homestand at 1-5, note they had to take on two likely playoff teams, the Yankees and Indians. This matchup, no matter the previous results, is a pretty obvious drop in class. They'll hand the baseball to Reynaldo Lopez for Monday's opener and he's off B2B quality efforts where he allowed only three runs total in 14 innings. Last time out, he was perfect through five innings against the Yankees (ended up w/ a no decision). Both of his starts against the Tigers this year have been quality as he's given up just three runs in 13 IP. Both ended up being one-run losses for the team, but I'm predicting a better result here. 

It looks as if the Tigers will have a real "patchwork" lineup coming into this series as outfielder Nicholas Castellanos (who has hit well against the White Sox) and Jacoby Jones are likely to miss tonight's game. On the mound, they'll turn to Artie Lewicki, who has not started a game since June. The trade of Michael Fiers, an injury to Michael Fulmer and general ineffectiveness from the remainder of the rotation are what led to Lewicki starting this one. His previous two starts, both against Cleveland, weren't very good as he has 5.19 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He's made 12 appearances overall this season and hasn't been a whole lot better out of the bullpen. The Tigers did manage to take two of three from the Twins over the weekend (here at home), but their offense is still only averaging 2.7 rpg over the last week while batting a collective .199. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Under Indians/Reds (7:10 ET): The last series between these I-71 rivals saw all three games go Over the total. But that was in Cleveland where the Indians average 5.7 runs per game and both lineups got to benefit from the use of a designated hitter. (Only Boston scores more runs per game at home than does Cleveland, btw). Now, we shift to National League rules where the pitcher will have to come up to bat. The Indians' offense isn't nearly as strong on the road, averaging just 4.4 runs per game. But their pitching is still strong and thus I envision it being a low-scoring series opener Monday night. Take the Under. 

The Reds actually won two of the three games in Cleveland last month, scoring seven runs in each victory. However, one of those wins saw them score all seven runs late after being shutout for eight innings by Trevor Bauer. The other win did see them "rough up" Mike Clevinger, who they'll face again tonight. But that last performance against the Reds is in no way indicative of the kind of season Clevinger is having for the Indians. He comes in w/ a 0.944 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last four starts. Despite the bullpen nearly blowing it yday, note Cleveland got another strong start from Carlos Carrasco, who gave up just one run in seven innings. The Tribe have given up only 2.6 runs per game over the last week and are tied for 7th in runs allowed for the season. 

Cleveland's one win in the last series w/ the Reds saw them score 19 runs. Don't count on anything like that happening here though as the team often struggles to score away from home. Now they did cross the plate nine times in Sunday's victory, but that was after totaling just three runs in the first two games of the series. Cleveland's offense has been somewhat unique in that they often have a game where they score a ton of runs, but can also be anemic for long stretches. I realize that tonight they're up against Homer Bailey, who is having one of the worst seasons I can remember from any MLB starter. Bailey enters the game w/ a 1-14 TSR, but has been slightly better since rejoining the rotation last month. Sure, he was roughed up his last time out. But that came after B2B quality starts. The Under is 33-23 in all Indians' road games and that trend should continue tonight due to several factors (all listed above) lining up. 8* Under Indians/Reds

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Monday's starter Jacob deGrom is having himself one of the unluckiest seasons in recent memory. Despite posting the lowest ERA (1.77) among all qualified starters, not to mention ranking 2nd in WHIP among all NL starters, deGrom's team start record this year is just 9-14. That's owed to lousy run support, but armed w/ an additional 1.5 runs, the run line could change that for him tonight. deGrom has made 15 consecutive quality starts heading into Monday night where the Mets will meet the Yankees in a makeup game. Note that he was set to start the rained out game, back on June 22nd, so the Yankees can run, but they can't hide from deGrom here. The Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss Monday night, thanks to their starting pitcher. 

I had the Mets Sunday as they beat the Marlins 4-3. They actually come into this make-up date having won three of four, albeit at the expense of the Reds and Marlins. But deGrom gives them a chance against anybody, even the mighty Yankees. In his last start, deGrom would not be denied as he tossed eight scoreless innings w/ 10 strikeouts. The Mets actually won, 8-0. Incredibly, that was just the third time the team scored more than three runs in a deGrom start, dating all the way back to the start of May! Interesting though is that deGrom is rarely an underdog on the money line. Because he is here, it opens the possibility of the RL. Five times this season the Mets have lost a deGrom start by one run. It is incredible that there have been six times where deGrom has pitched 8+ innings this season and NOT gotten the win. That just doesn't happen very often. 

The Yankees will also be sending their ace to the bump Monday night. Luis Severino has a 19-5 TSR as he typically enjoys far greater run support than what deGrom gets. That said, while Severino had a great 1st half to the season, he hasn't looked like the same pitcher since the All-Star Break. The team has dropped three of his last four starts and twice he allowed at least 6 ER while lasting five innings or less. The Mets' offense isn't anything special, but remember they'll open this game "up 1.5 runs" for us. The price on deGrom +1.5 runs is simply too tempting to pass up! 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

6* Houston (2:10 ET): This series has NOT gone the way I had it expected it to as Seattle has come in and taken three straight. As a result, the M's now trail the Astros by just five games in the AL West. This is somewhat improbable given Houston has outscored its opponents by 196 runs this year while Seattle has actually been outscored (current run diff is -23). The key to the Mariners getting to 18 games above .500 is their rather fortunate 29-14 record in one-run games (not to mention 9-1 in extra inning games). Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series though and Houston has been swept only one time all season (by Texas two weeks ago). Despite the hefty price tag, I'll take 'em Sunday afternoon as my view is they are simply the vastly superior team.

Dallas Keuchel will be the one getting the baseball on Sunday for the 'Stros. He's been surpassed by "imports" like Verlander and Cole in the starting rotation, but is still very good. He's off B2B quality starts and the team is 7-1 his L8 starts overall. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all eight of those outings and last time out was able to outduel Madison Bumgarner of the Giants in a 2-1 win. Keuchel allowed just one run on three hits in six innings of work there. He's held the opposition to a .549 OPS (very good) while posting a 1.97 ERA the L7 starts. Keuchel has always pitched well throughout his career here at Minute Maid Park, so perhaps he's the right man for the job as the team looks to end its shocking seven-game home losing streak. They actually haven't won a game here (just two series) since the All-Star Break! Off three or more consecutive losses, the Astros are 24-9 the L3 seasons. 

Seattle made a pitching change overnight and will turn to Erasmo Ramirez, who has not started a game since April due to injury. He replaces Felix Hernandez, who has seen better days. But it's not like Ramirez is any kind of improvement. The last time we saw him start a game, he allowed six runs total and FIVE home runs! In fact, in two starts in 2018, Ramirez has allowed 11 runs total and 7 HR's. Regardless of what they have pulled off so far this weekend, I remain highly skeptical of Seattle. Meanwhile, the Astros are still one of the top two teams in all of baseball. 6* Houston

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets lost a heartbreaker last night, 4-3, in 11 innings. They had beaten the Marlins the previous night by a score of 6-2. They go for the series win today w/ Noah Syndergaard on the hill. While he's allowed a total of 7 ER in his last two starts, consider that's the most runs he's allowed in any back to back starts all season. He comes in w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.098 WHIP on the road. To say he's had the Marlins' number would be an understatement as he's 4-0 all-time against them (six starts) w/ a 1.62 ERA. As nightmarish as this season has been for the Mets, they are superior to Miami, who has been outscored by a NL-worst 158 runs. Especially w/ Syndegaard on the hill. Consider the Marlins' YTD run differential is twice as bad as New York's.

Syndergaard will be opposed here by Wei-Yin Chen. Last time out, Chen turned heads by allowing just one hit in 5 2/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis. Miami won the game 2-1. Chen has actually pitched fairly well at home this year, but still carries a 5.48 ERA and 1.433 WHIP overall. Prior to yday, Chen's last start was the only other time the Marlins had won a game this month. This is a team that should have far more losses on the year. According to their run differential, you'd "expect" them to have 77 losses, which is seven more than they actually have. Offensively, the Marlins aren't very prolific at home as they average only 3.5 runs per game. 

It's incredible to think that the Mets were once 11-1 this season. Since then, they've gone 36-65. But Syndergaard has been the one constant w/ a 10-5 TSR for the year. Even though he tied a season-high w/ four runs allowed in his last start, the Mets still were able to get by Cincinnati, 6-4. Before that, he'd allowed 3 ER or less in 13 consecutive starts. He's never had trouble vs. Miami before and I don't expect him to start having them now. The Mets are actually a higher scoring team on the road - significantly so - averaging 4.7 rpg. (They average a MLB-low 3.2 rpg at home). Early line movement confirmed my belief in the Metropolitans here. 8* NY Mets

10* Toronto (1:05 ET): The Blue Jays have just one shot left if they wish to avoid getting swept for a second straight time by division rival Tampa Bay. To do so, they're going to need to start scoring some runs. Rays' pitching has certainly had their number of late, holding them to just two runs total the past four meetings. After a 7-0 shutout in the series opener Friday, things were a lot closer last night in a 3-1 final. But the bottom line is that Toronto is now just 1-7 vs. TB in 2018, including five straight losses. I'll call for them to put an end to that streak on Sunday afternoon, however.

Marcus Stroman will get the baseball, trying to break the streak for the Jays. He has not been at his best here in '18, but Stroman is certainly still a very capable starter. His last start may have seen him exit due to a blister on his middle finger, but he was excellent over seven innings, allowing only a single unearned run and that was against Boston, who is the best offensive team in all of baseball. Stroman gave up only two hits as well. It was his third quality start in the last four outings overall. As tough a time as the Jays have had w/ the Rays this season, they've yet to send Stroman to the hill against them. He can be the great equalizer in this one. 

Tampa Bay turns to Tyler Glasnow has allowed just two runs total for Tampa Bay since coming over in a trade w/ Pittsburgh. But he's gone just seven innings in his two starts as manager Kevin Cash is always creative w/ the use of his 'pen. He also threw 61 pitches his last time out, the most he's thrown in a start since April. Also, his last start was against Baltimore, who is just dreadful. This will be his first time starting on the road as a member of the Rays. It's not like the Rays are a particularly strong road team, so I see Toronto avoiding the sweep on Sunday. 10* Toronto

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers failed in their bid to win a seventh straight time here at Coors Field Friday night, instead losing 5-4. It was a complete "reversal of fortune" from the previous game where Dodger Blue was able to rally against a suspect Colorado bullpen. This time, they were held in check by Rockies' relievers while giving up the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning (led 4-3 going into the frame). However, for all the reasons stipulated the L2 nights, I'll be backing LA again Saturday as they're simply a much better team than Colorado. Having outscored their opponents by a NL-high 98 runs this year, the Dodgers can clain a far better YTD run differential than the Rockies, who have actually been OUTSCORED (-19 run diff) in 2018. 

The Dodgers will enter the day tied w/ Arizona atop the NL West. They're also just a game back of the Wild Card, so this is a really important next two days for the ballclub, especially w/ Colorado still "breathing down their back." Sure, run differential indicates there's a massive gap in the level of play between the two teams, but somehow the Rockies have managed to stick within 2.5 games of the division leaders. Tonight, I envision an easy win for the road team, however. Starter Walker Buehler has a shockingly great WHIP (0.995) on the season, so the team should have a better overall record than 8-5 in his 13 starts. Buehler has given up just three runs total in his L2 starts and has made changes to his cureball, which in turn have led to more strikeouts (15). Buehler has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. 

The Rockies go w/ Kyle Freeland, who has been able to pitch quite well here at Coors Field this season, despite the inherent disadvantages. He has a 2.18 ERA in 10 home starts (8-2 TSR) and a 1.47 ERA his L3 starts overall. However, I still worry about that Rockies' bullpen (5.22 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) even moreso than the Dodgers' pen w/o Kenley Jansen. One issue to monitor w/ Freeland is control as he's walked three batters in four consecutive starts. The Dodgers' offense should continue to take advantage of the hitter-friendly environment that Coors provides as they already average 5.1 rpg on the road this season. Freeland is working on a 13-inning scoreless streak at home, but I feel that will come to an end rather quickly tonight as the Dodgers send the Rockies to an 8th loss in the last 11 games. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Arizona (6:40 ET): Last night the D'backs were shutout, 3-0, in the series opener here at Great American Ballpark. An interesting tidbit on these two teams is that LAST year they finished at opposite ends of the betting spectrum. Arizona came from nowhere to win 93 games, thus it shouldn't have been a surprise to see them finish third in net units at +14.8. The Reds had one of the worst records in all of baseball, thus they were -14.5 units, which ranked 26th. Cincy hasn't been quite as bad in '18 as they come into today "only" -4.1 units. Meanwhile, the D'backs (w/ a target on their backs) haven't been quite as profitable at just +4.1 units. But they're still the better team here and I'll call for them to bounce back Saturday w/ what I feel is a pretty clear edge in starting pitching. 

It certainly wasn't the pitching that was the problem last night for Arizona. Rather, an offense that is only ninth in the NL runs scored was shutout. It was the fourth time in the last five games they failed to score more than three runs. The team batting average for the season is surprisingly low, but you can expect them to find greater success this evening when facing the struggling Matt Harvey. Harvey initially wasn't too bad for the Reds after being dumped by the Mets earlier this season. But, he's got a 10.66 ERA and 1.815 WHIP in three starts since the All-Star Break. Last time out, he lasted only four innings and gave up five runs. Five of the nine hits he allowed were for extra bases. I don't think Harvey will be getting much run support here considering all of the Reds' runs last night came from either a sacrifice fly or bunt. The sac bunt actually scored two runs, one of them coming on a throwing error. So it's not like Cincy's offense was in top form either Friday. In fact, they're barely averaging over 3.0 rpg the last week.

Pitching has not been an issue for Arizona all season long. Only two teams - Houston and Boston - give up fewer runs per game. Tonight's starter Robbie Ray really enjoys pitching on the road where he's held opponents to a .195 batting average this season. He also has 48 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA in his seven outings away from home. Somewhat surprisingly, the D'backs have lost each of the L5 times Ray has started, but three of those losses have been by exactly one run. He did have some control issues his last time out (four walks), but overall that has NOT been an issue this season. The D'backs have not dropped B2B games this month and I believe will bounce back in a major way Saturday evening. 8* Arizona 

8* Toronto (4:07 ET): The Blue Jays were embarrassed at home last night, losing 7-0 to the Rays. It was their fourth loss in a row to TB overall as they were swept by their division rival down in Tampa back in June. Rarely do you see a team sweep the same opponent twice in a row though, especially if they're division rivals. In this case, the Rays were playing a lot better back in June than they are now. They're also on the road where their record (25-33) is far worse than at Tropicana Field (34-24). I see the Jays bouncing back in a major way Saturday afternoon and exacting revenge.

It took awhile for the Rays to name their starter for Saturday, but it will be Ryne Stanek. Of course, Stanek isn't your typical MLB starter. He's referred to as an "opener" by manager Kevin Cash as the converted reliever never goes more than two innings before giving way to the bullpen. The experiment hasn't been that successful, however, as the Rays have lost 11 of the 18 times Stanek has "opened" the game. His ERA and WHIP are good, but that'll happen when you only go through the order one time. Last time out, Stanek allowed a pair of runs against lowly Baltimore. The decision to use him in this role today was made late because there was some question as to whether or not he'd be used in relief Friday (he wasn't as the game was quickly out of reach). Speaking of decision making, manager Cash actually pulled last night's starter Blake Snell after five perfect innings. The team also started rookies at all five infield positions! 

As bad as last night went for Toronto, today should be better. I say that knowing full well that starter Sam Gaviglio has struggled over the last couple months. He's winless since late May and has a 7.42 ERA and 2.174 WHIP his L3 starts. But Gaviglio has pitched well this season here at Rogers Centre. His ERA is 2.74 in seven home starts, none of which have resulted in an actual decision for him! The Jays have won four of the seven games though and I feel "tonight's the night" that Gaviglio finally breaks through! 8* Toronto

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Not to "toot my own horn," but I said the Dodgers would come to Coors Field this weekend and take charge, and that they did last night. They took the series opener from the Rockies, 8-5, and while it was not as easy as it seemed, they still got the job done. Seven of those runs were scored over the final three frames w/ the deciding three coming in the top half of the ninth. But Dodger Blue was perhaps "due" for that kind of result. They might only be up 3.5 games on Colorado in the NL West, but there's a massive lead in run differential (+99 vs. -20) that says that gap in the standings should probably be a lot larger. It will be after this weekend and I'm on the Dodgers again Friday night. 

The irony of Los Angeles coming back to win in the late innings last night is that they were the ones w/o their regular closer. Kenley Jansen has been sent home due to an irregular heartbeat and will likely miss an entire month of action because of it. Jansen is tied for the NL lead w/ 32 saves. But Scott Alexander was able to close things out last night in his place. This isn't the first time Jansen has missed time due to this issue, so I think the team can overcome it. Playing in Coors Field certainly helps the offense as they already average 5.1 rpg away from home and there isn't a more "hitter-friendly" environment than this one. As for Colorado's bullpen, last night was just a continuation of a season-long issue. This group sports a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the season. Both of those numbers rank right near the very bottom of the league (29th and 26th, respectively). 

Tonight's starting pitching matchup would appear to be heavily in favor of the Rockies. But sometimes "looks can be deceiving." Though the Dodgers' Kenta Maeda has struggled recently, he still has solid numbers over the course of the entire season, especially against Colorado. In two previous starts, he's held them to a .149 average. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who does have a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts, the last four of which have come after being sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque. I think it's right to question the success of a pitcher who had to be sent down to the minors to work on his "mechanics" at the midway point of the season. Now there's no denying that he has pitched well recently. But how long will that last? Maeda has the superior numbers over the course of the full season and I believe is still the better pitcher here. The Dodgers have won six straight here at Coors Field. Make it seven in a row after tonight. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. It's also a revenge spot for Canada's lone pro baseball franchise. Back in June, they were swept down in Tampa Bay at a time where the Rays were about to go on a run. The Rays would actually drop the next three games (to the Yankees), but then would go onto win 16 of the next 22 games. The streak hardly mattered though; they're only barely above .500 right now and the front office elected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline, rather than double down on a possible playoff push. Toronto is 5.5 games back of TB in the AL East and though they're the inferior team on paper, I'm willing to say they do no worse than a one-run defeat here at home.

A big key for the Blue Jays this weekend is getting the Rays "north of the border." Granted, the Jays aren't a dominant home team by any means (just 28-30). But it's that the Rays are significantly worse on the road. Their record away from home is just 24-33 while it's 34-24 at Tropicana Field. But the recently completed homestand hardly went well for the Rays as they ended up dropping four of the last six games and those came against the Orioles and White Sox, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. You don't see Tampa Bay favored on the money line away from home that much. It works to our advantage here by opening up the chance to play the run line. Sweeping the same opponent twice in a row is hard to do, especially if it's a division rival. 

This series will be a drop in class for Toronto as they just got done hosting Boston. They won just one of the three games, that lone win coming last night. Offensively, the team has averaged 6.0 rpg over the last week while batting a collective .303. They'll send Marco Estrada to the hill tonight and he's fresh off allowing just one run over seven innings in his last start (a 5-1 win over Seattle as a +215 ML underdog!). Blake Snell starts here for the Rays and while he's had a fine 2018 season, he's not the same pitcher on the road (mirroring the play of the team as a whole). While Snell is 6-1 w/ a 0.97 ERA in nine home starts, he's just 6-4 w/ a 3.34 ERA. His WHIP over the L3 starts is 1.535 as there have been control issues (eight walks). He'd spent some time on the DL prior to his last outing, which saw him last just four innings. There may be a "quick hook" if he struggles again tonight. Note that the Rays' last six games have all been decided by exactly one run. Either way, that's a result we'll take this evening. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I don't know how long either of these clubs will remain relevant in the NL playoff hunt, but my view is neither are likely to be playing in October. Not if the YTD run differentials each are currently sporting, persist. The Pirates, thanks to that rather random 11-game win streak that bookended the All-Star Break, are only five back in the Wild Card chase. But take that win streak away and you have a clearly below average team, one that's been outscored over the balance of the year and would be eight games below .500. The Giants have a -32 run differential despite being just a game under the Mendoza line, but what they also have here is a clear edge in that they were off yesterday while Pittsburgh was in Colorado. I'm taking San Francisco tonight as they also happen to be a very strong home team.

The Giants are 32-24 at home this season, which is alot better than their 25-34 road record. The win percentage at home was even stronger before they ran into the mighty Astros earlier this week as they dropped both games in that series. I suspect the offense will be much stronger this weekend against Pirates' pitching than they were vs. Houston. Tonight, they'll go up against Ivan Nova, who has a 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts. Nova has given up four runs in B2B starts while lasting only nine innings. He also has more walks (6) than strikeouts (4) during that time. The team actually won his final four starts in July before dropping his last start (8-4) to St. Louis last weekend. Nova was also the one Bucs' starter that lost in the only prior series w/ the Giants this year. 

Tonight's starter for SF, Andrew Suarez, also took a "L" in that prior series, which took place all the way back in May. Overall, the Pirates wound up winning two of the three games. But that was in PNC Park. I already mentioned how the Giants are better at home this year and that's certainly the case w/ Suarez, who has a 3.64 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in nine starts at AT&T Park. His ERA is basically two full points lower at home than it is on the road. Suarez was roughed up badly in his last start, but that came on the road at Arizona. He won his last home start (7.29 vs. Milwaukee) despite not even having his best stuff. As a road underdog of +125 to +175, the Pirates are only 4-14 this year. I still believe we're due to see them "give some more back" after the random win streak I spoke of earlier. 8* San Francisco

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Both of these teams lost by one run on Wednesday w/ the Rockies dropping a game at home to Pittsburgh (4-3) while the Dodgers lost out in Oakland (3-2). The NL West race very much remains a four-team affair (all separated by just 6.5 games), but in my estimation there's a clear "line of demarcation" between the Dodgers/D'backs & the Rockies/Giants. The latter twosome have both been outscored over the course of the year and thus should consider themselves rather fortunate to even be in playoff contention at all. I think this series will do a lot to remedy the misleading gap between the Dodgers and Rockies (currently just 2.5 gms) as the former is clearly the better team in my eyes. Look for them to open the series w/ a big win.

Los Angeles couldn't score enough for Clayton Kershaw last night, but there was no shortage of offense the last time they came calling to Coors Field. They scored 33 runs in a three-game sweep of the Rockies here, back in June, and could be poised for a similar series at the plate this weekend. They come in averaging 5.1 rpg on the road already. Tonight, they face Tyler Anderson, who has given up a total of 11 runs his L2 starts, including seven in the last one. In that previous series here in Denver, the Dodgers got to Anderson for five runs in five innings. The Rockies have lost each of the last three times Anderson has started and he's given up five home runs during that stretch. Three of those came in the bad effort vs. Milwaukee last week. 

The worst part of Colorado dropping two of three at home to Pittsburgh to start to the week is that they failed to take advantage of their own park offensively. They scored just seven runs over the three games and came into yday batting a collective .210 over the last week. Those kind of numbers make it an ideal spot to return for LA starter Ross Stripling, who is coming off the 10-day DL here. Stripling was an All-Star, but his appearance at the midsummer classic seemed to derail him as not only did he serve up two home runs in that game, he's given up four more in his previous two starts. Overall, he's allowed nine runs in 8 2/3 IP over the pair. But I'll still bank on Stripling and his superior team here. Stripling has better numbers than Anderson and I like the fact LA is off a loss here as losing streaks aren't something we've seen from them very much over a dominant two-month stretch. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (8:10 ET): This is a matchup that is particularly attractive to me due to the concept of actual vs. expected wins. Based on their YTD run differential, every team has a win expectancy. That number can be quite instructive in evaluating a ballclub as to whether or not they "should" have won more or less games. Well, no team in MLB "should" have more wins (according to run diff) than the 73-42 Astros, if you can believe it. Yes, their WL record is already very good. But based on their MLB-leading +202 run differential, they've actually played to the level of an 81-win team! On the flip side, there's tonight's opponent, Seattle. The Mariners are 65-50 for the year, but have been outscored by 29 runs. That's a win expectancy of just 54. So while these two AL West rival may only be separated by eight games in the standings currently, run differential indicates that the "true" gap is more like 27 games and that this is really a complete mismatch. 

Compounding matters for the Mariners is the fact they've really started to hit the skids of late. Yesterday's 11-7 loss at Texas marked their seventh loss in the last nine games. It was the second game in a row they allowed 11 runs. At the same time, the offense has topped four runs just one time in this 2-7 stretch. One has to wonder where Seattle would be if not for its extremely fortunate 28-14 record in one-run games this year, not to mention going 9-1 in extra innings. I've been harping on those records all year long, citing them an "unsustainable" and proof that the M's simply were never as good as their overall record. Another key disadvantage coming into Thursday's opener is that Houston had yday off. 

James Paxton would likely be the 1st choice for manager Scott Servais to hand the ball to tonight. Paxton has a 3.44 ERA and 1.057 WHIP this season (22 starts) and is 3-0 vs. the Astros. Problem is though that he's being opposed by Justin Verlander, who has been even better. Verlander comes in sporting a 2.19 ERA and 0.876 WHIP in 24 starts, making a 14-10 TSR seem somewhat "criminal." Somehow Seattle has been able to avoid him this year ... until now. But in 24 career starts against the M's, Verlander has a 3.01 ERA. He also comes into this game in dominant form as his KW ratio over the L4 starts is 44-4. He held the Dodgers to just one run (a solo HR) over 7 2/3 innings his last time out & finished w/ a season-best 14 strikeouts. I realize Houston's everyday lineup has some key injuries right now, but the day of rest is a big edge as is playing at home this weekend. They are already 6-3 head to head vs. Seattle this season and should improve upon that record this weekend, starting tonight. 8* Houston

8* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): I took the Dodgers as my top Interleague play for August last night and they beat the A's, 4-2. I thought it was a very good price on them considering Oakland (curiously) isn't as strong here at home. The A's were also at "peak value" coming in off a six-game win streak that came at the expense of two bad teams. It looks to be a similar deal tonight, although the price on the Dodgers is elevated due to Clayton Kershaw starting. Still, the price is nowhere near where it ought to be, given Kershaw and his team's exploits. As I said in yday's analysis, Oakland is a bit overrated in the sense that they've outperformed their win expectancy that's based on run differential. Granted, that outperformance isn't as extreme as the division rival Mariners, but they're not on the level of a Dodgers team that has the second best run differential in the entire National League.

Something I also discussed in yday's analysis is the offensive decline that takes place for the A's here at home. No team has scored more runs this year on the road. But at the O.co Coliseum, they average only 3.9 rpg while batting a collective .229. Incredibly, only three teams score FEWER runs per game at home and only one has a lower team batting average. Not that Kershaw even needs these added advantages. He comes in w/ a 2.55 ERA and 1.070 WHIP and has pitched even better on the road this season (1.94 ERA, 0.960 WHIP). Given that he's allowed more than 3 ER in just two of his 16 starts, an 8-8 TSR seems highly misleading. Even though all three career starts vs. Oakland have resulted in no decisions for him, Kershaw's ERA in those games is 0.87.

Michael Fiers will be making his Oakland debut Wednesday night. Unfortunately, it comes against a team already averaging 5.1 rpg on the road and now has a DH in the lineup. Fiers has not necessarily pitched well in this stadium in the past. His ERA is 4.91 in six career appearances here. Matching up w/ Kershaw is always difficult, but especially when he's been flashing the form we've seen recently. I just don't see a path for Fiers to outduel him. This is an unique matchup where it seems as if the ROAD team has the edge and the Dodgers are a team that has actually UNDERperformed its win expectancy, which is just the opposite of the Athletics. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies should feel lucky to be seven games above .500, let alone in the NL West race, as they've been outscored over the course of this season. Of course, you could spin the same "tale" about this year's Pirates, who have been less than mediocre, save for an 11-game win streak that surrounded the All-Star Break. Somebody's got to take Wednesday afternoon's rubber match though and I'm going to side w/ Colorado, based on not only the line movement I'm seeing, but also the belief that the Bucs are still due to "give some more back" after that random win streak occurred. Motivation should be high for the home team here after being embarrassed last night in a 10-2 loss. True to season-long form, Pittsburgh is just 5-7 since the 11-game win streak ended. 

Chris Archer would not be denied in his Pirates' debut last Friday as the Pirates prevailed 7-6 at home over the Cardinals. I took Archer that day, but the reality of the matter is that the win was in spite, not because, of him. He allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings and that's in a venue far less friendly to starting pitchers than the one he'll toe the rubber at today. Concerning is the fact Archer has now allowed four or more runs in three straight starts, which goes back to his Tampa Bay days. He has made one career start here - in 2016 - and it went well. But still, this year's numbers simply do not indicate he'll be able to handle a lineup that has the highest team batting average at home in the entire National League. 

At the same time, no team in the NL allows more runs per game at home than do the Rockies. But I see a considerable edge in starting pitching for them in this one. German Marquez is unbeaten over his past six starts (4-0, 2.95 ERA) and is off B2B quality efforts. Last time out, it was a hard-luck no decision vs. Milwaukee as he allowed just two runs on three hits, but the Rockies lost the game - on a walkoff - 5-3. Marquez has always pitched well against Pittsburgh as he's a perfect 3-0 w/ a 2.50 ERA. Earlier this year, he held them to two runs on two hits over six innings. Armed w/ the edge in starting pitching, the Rockies will take this game and series. 8* Colorado

8* Seattle (2:05 ET): This is the rubber match of a three-game set. The Mariners took the opener (a one run win, which is their "thing"), then the Rangers came back w/ an 11-4 beatdown on Tuesday. We've been through the analysis on Seattle many times this year. In terms of wins and losses, it's clearly an overrated team. Even though they've been outscored on the season (-25 run diff), they somehow have managed to go 65-49. That "somehow" is an extremely fortunate 28-14 record in one-run games (also 9-1 in extra innings). Their WL record was even more misleading prior to them dropping 14 of their last 21 games. Ironically, the team that has passed them in the AL Wild Card standings (Oakland) now has an even better win percentage in one-run games (but also a far better YTD run differential as well). That all being said, I like the M's to bounce back from last night's debacle. They're up against the last place team in the division here & the Rangers allow more runs per game (6.1!) at home than any other team in baseball. 

Throughout the year, I've questioned just how good some of these Seattle starters truly are. Most have good team start records in spite of less than dominant numbers. That's really been the story of this entire 2018 Mariners team. But consider this afternoon's starter, Marco Gonzales, the exception to that "rule." He's gone 12-6 in 22 starts (15-7 TSR) w/ a 3.26 ERA and 1.146 WHIP. He's won both career starts against Texas, turning in a 2.31 ERA. Earlier this year, he allowed only one unearned run to them, in 6 2/3 innings, in what ended up being a 2-1 Seattle victory. After turning in five consecutive quality starts (allowed 2 ER or less every time), Gonzales did give up four runs in a loss to Toronto his last time out. But I expect him to bounce back from that here. 

It's the Texas starter whose record I have to call into question on Wednesday. Veteran Yovani Gallardo is 6-1 (7-1 TSR) despite having a 5.24 ERA and 1.433 WHIP. The big key for the Rangers in his starts has not been the actual pitching, but rather the run support given as Gallardo receives the highest run support average in all of MLB. In his last two starts alone, the Rangers have scored a total of 28 runs. That doesn't sound like a sustainable blueprint to me though and it should again be noted how many runs per game Texas gives up here at home. When you are giving up a higher average in your park than Colorado does in Coors Field, you know something is awry. Gallardo got away w/ giving up five runs to Baltimore his last time out (Texas won 17-8), but he won't be so lucky this time. 8* Seattle

10* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): Was it really THIRTY years ago that these teams met in the World Series? (Answer: yes, it was). As of right now, it seems like both could be headed back to the postseason this year. The Dodgers do trail the D'backs by one-half game (by virtue of being idle yday) in the NL West and are also one-half game out of Wild Card position. But they do own the second best run differential (+95) in the entire National League, so by that metric, expect them to get in, one way or the other. Meanwhile, Oakland is red-hot. They've won six straight to surge into Wild Card position over in the American League, although I hesitate to say they're as good as their record. A 21-9 record in one-run games has certainly helped their cause as did playing lowly Detroit over the weekend (swept them). 

There's also something rather curious going on w/ the A's as they are far more prolific at the plate on the road than they are at home. When it comes to number of runs scored on the road, they are actually #1 in all of baseball. But at home, their production dips all the way down to 3.9 rpg w/ a .230 team batting average. That's almost two full runs LESS per game than what they average on the road. Now scoring was virtually a "moot point" this past weekend as they allowed Detroit to score only one run in the three games. But this series clearly will be a tougher challenge as they face a Dodgers' lineup that will benefit from the addition of a designated hitter. LA already averages 5.1 rpg on the road and that's mostly w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat. 

As good as Sean Manaea (tonight's starter) has been for the A's recently, the Dodgers' Rich Hill (tonight's starter) has been better. Manaea has a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP his L3 starts while Hill has a 0.95 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Hill has allowed just three runs in 19 IP during that time and should perform well here, given Oakland's offensive struggles at home. Hill is quite familiar w/ this park having pitched for the A's previously. Getting back to Oakland's good fortune of late, they are 4-0 in extra inning games since the All-Star Break. The Dodgers are definitely better than their WL record, given the run differential, and this is an easier matchup for them compared to the last series vs. Houston. In fact, they've taken on nothing but playoff contenders since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Oakland's list of opponents since the Break has been far weaker, especially over the last week. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): After being embarrassed here over the weekend (swept by the White Sox!), I see the Rays as likely to be highly motivated for this Tuesday night affair. It's the start of a series against another bottom-feeder, that being the Orioles. Obviously, the last series taught us that the Rays are not immune from losing to the very worst teams in baseball. But to continue to do so seems a little far-fetched to me. Sure, the Rays did drop three of four the last time they faced the Orioles. But that was in Baltimore. On the road, the O's are an absolutely horrific 14-43 while being outscored by 2.2 rpg. Plus, I'll point out that Baltimore is one of just two teams (the Royals are the other) w/ a worse record and run differential than the White Sox. 

The events of this past weekend have left TB on the very fringes of playoff contention as they're 10.5 games back of red-hot Oakland for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Realistically, it's highly unlikely that we will be seeing the Rays in the postseason. That's too bad because the pitching staff has performed at a very high level over the last 2+ months, thanks to some creativity from manager Kevin Cash. At home, the team is allowing just 3.4 rpg w/ opponents batting .210! Even after being swept over the weekend, their record at Tropicana Field is still 32-23. Note that all three losses in the White Sox series came by one run, two of them w/ the pitching staff allowing three runs or fewer. 

Maybe making the playoffs isn't even the goal this year in Tampa Bay given the recent dealings of the front office. Tonight's starter, Tyler Glasnow, is a recent acquisition stemming from a trade w/ Pittsburgh. Glasnow has already started once for the Rays and went three innings in a 7-2 win over the Angels. Given Baltimore has never faced him before, I suspect we'll see far better pitching from the Rays than the last series when they allowed the Orioles to score 11+ runs three times. Meanwhile, starting for the O's will be a familiar face at Tropicana Field, that being former Ray Alex Cobb. TB has really beaten up on their former teammate in 2018, going 3-0 against him w/ Cobb's ERA being 6.10. The only game TB won in the last series was against Cobb as he allowed four runs and eight hits. For the year, Cobb is 3-14 in 20 starts (4-16 TSR) w/ a 5.74 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. A really interesting stat here is that Baltimore is 0-12 this season when playing after an off-day! 8* Tampa Bay

8* Houston (10:15 ET): We're getting the Astros off a loss here (3-2 to the Dodgers Sunday), which I like b/c this isn't a team that loses very often (71-42 WL record). The previous weekend did see them get swept for the 1st time all year (by Texas!) and then a loss last Monday to Seattle gave them a season-worst five-game losing streak. But between that and yday, they'd gone 4-0 including an incredibly impressive 14-0 beatdown of the Dodgers Saturday night. The Astros have been baseball's best road team all season w/ a 39-18 record that has seen them outscore their hosts by a monstrous 2.7 runs per game. Thus I have no fears about taking them here as a West Coast Interleague swing continues against the overrated Giants. 

I say that San Francisco is overrated b/c they've been outscored this year (-23 run diff) even though they've been slightly above .500 most of the way. The NL West is very much a FOUR-team race at this point, but in my eyes, Arizona and Los Angeles are vastly superior to Colorado and San Francisco. Houston is just the opposite of the Giants in that they have UNDERperformed in terms of wins and losses. Their YTD run differential of +199 is baseball's best and indicates they should have about 80 wins this season, rather than their actual win total of 71. That's actually the largest negative gap between expected and actual wins of any team. 

Now that we've established the Astros are better than their record while the Giants aren't quite as good as theirs, let's look at tonight's pitching matchup shall we? Houston hands the baseball to Charlie Morton, who has won five of his last six decisions and has a 12-2 record w/ a 2.90 ERA (1.158 WHIP) this season. I took him as my 10* Game of the Week his last time out and was rewarded w/ a 5-2 win at Seattle. It was his second straight quality start on the road. He actually now has the best win percentage in all of MLB among starters w/ at least 10 decisions! Morton is opposed here by rookie Dereck Rodriguez, who was admittedly very good in July. But you never know when that rookie wall might come. He also goes from facing San Diego his last time out to the highest scoring road team in all of baseball. I'm not too concerned about the loss of the DH here for the Astros nor the fact they've struggled in the past here at AT&T Park. Morton is more than familiar w/ this stadium and has pitched well against the Giants in the past. While San Fran managed to split w/ Arizona over the weekend, I don't think they'll be that lucky here based on the fact they were crushed in both games out in Houston back in May (outscored 15-3). 8* Houston

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Phillies are probably feeling pretty good about themselves as they fly cross-country to Arizona. They just swept the Marlins in a four-game set over the weekend, but the battle of division leaders that awaits them will obviously be more challenging. As a reminder, Miami is the worst team in the National League, so a sweep (especially at home) really shouldn't have come as any sort of shock. Really, it was almost to be expected. Despite their 1st place standing in the NL East, I still have my doubts over the Phils. Both teams chasing them - Atlanta & Washington - have significantly better YTD run differentials. My doubts are further heightened on the road where the club is just 25-30. I'll be siding w/ the host D'backs in Monday's series opener. 

While Philly was sweeping Miami over the weekend, Arizona had to settle for a split w/ the Giants. That leaves them in a first place tie w/ the Dodgers atop the NL West. Despite their team batting average (.237) being fairly low, this team has found away to still score (12th in runs). Pitching has not been an issue, however, as the staff ranks top 10 in most key categories and they have one of the better bullpens in all of baseball. Chase Field used to have a rep as one of the more hitter-friendly parks, but that's changed in '18 through the use of a humidor (similar to Coors Field in Colorado). Arizona's pitchers have taken full advantage by limiting opponents to just 4.1 rpg here. The Phillies' offense dips somewhat significantly on the road, down to 4.0 rpg, which partly explains their rather massive home vs. road splits.

A rare bullpen gaffe (eighth inning HR) cost the D'backs yday, but I do not anticipate them even in being in a similar position for that to happen tonight. Sunday was a rarity in that the D'backs were 44-18 when scoring first. They are tops in all of baseball w/ 92 runs scored in the 1st inning. Despite him coming in w/ a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts, I'm not afraid of playing against the Phillies' Jake Arrieta, who has been inconsistent and hardly overpowering this season. He is off perhaps his best start of '18 as he held Boston to one run in a win as a +130 ML dog last Tuesday. But a repeat seems unlikely. I like Arizona's Zack Godley, who has similar numbers to Arrieta, and a 6-2 record at home. He too is off perhaps his best start of the season. Godley has also been more overpowering than Arrieta of late w/ 68 K's in his L58 IP. Arizona took two of three in Philly earlier this season, thus they better expectations here at home. 10* Arizona

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): It was never any secret that the Marlins were bad, but the extent of their futility was something that could be debated. Thanks to the similar ineptitude of the division rival Mets, Miami had even climbed out of last place in the NL East for a short time. But, no matter where they are in the standings (they're back in last place now), I've consistently maintained that they are the very worst team the entire National League has to offer. That's confirmed by a -150 run differential for the year, which is the second worst in all of baseball (only KC worse). The Fish come into Monday having dropped six straight as they were just swept over the weekend by Philadelphia. There's no light at the end of the tunnel here and I suspect these struggles will continue for the rest of the season. 

The Cardinals find themselves on the fringes of playoff contention. They've definitely helped themselves recently by going 7-3 the L10 games while playing the Cubs, Rockies and Pirates, three other playoff hopefuls. They are still just four games above water (.500) though and four games back of the Wild Card. Thus, the drop in class that this series represents simply must be taken advantage of. In their only previous series vs. Miami this season, they actually dropped two of three. Needless to say, that cannot be repeated here. While the Cards' road record is exactly .500 (28-28), they've outscored opponents by a decent margin in those games & they're 9-5 in the -125 to -175 price range. 

The entirety of this six-game losing skid for Miami has come on the road. A decision was made yday to push back Wei-Yin Chen to today as he's been a lot better here at home (2.18 ERA) than on the road (10.27). But, I'm not sure that really matters when you're team is so bad. Though the Marlins won his previous start vs. St. Louis this year, 11-3, Chen lasted only 4 1/3 innings and gave up two runs. He'll be opposed tonight by Luke Weaver, who has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five consecutive starts. This seems like the best time of year to back Weaver as he went 7-2 in August/September last season. I don't think he'll have much trouble against a lineup that ranks 27th in runs scored and 30th (dead last) in slugging. 8* St. Louis

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): If you've been following along the last few months, then you already know I'm no real fan of the Mariners. It's not that they're a bad team per se. But, in terms of won-loss record, they remain highly overrated. I've consistently pointed out the club's run differential, which is in no way indicative of the overall record. No team in baseball has exceeded its number of "expected" wins (based on run diff) more than this one. While the M's actual record is 63-48, they've actually been outscored this season by 22 runs. That's the run differential you'd expect from a 53-win team, not a 63-win one. (In case you're still unaware, the key for Seattle this year has been an extremely fortunate 27-14 record in one-run games. They're also 8-1 in extra innings). 

But I'm less concerned w/ the team than the actual situation we're playing today. You see Seattle comes into Sunday on the verge of being swept here at home, in a four-game series no less. You just don't see many home teams getting swept in four-game series over the course of the season. So, I'm willing to take a "flier" here on a team that I quite honestly haven't been all that impressed with (see above). Toronto has come in and taken the first three games of this series, all by four or more runs, and to add "insult to injury," they're the ones drawing more support from those in attendance. (With Seattle so close to the Canadian border, this is really the only chance for Jays' fans from Western Canada to cheer their team in person). 

Last night, the Mariners lost as huge favorites on the ML w/ James Paxton on the hill. Their bats have gone quiet, scoring just 11 runs over the course of a losing skid that has now reached five games overall. Jays starter Marco Estrada took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against them Saturday and that was on the heels of their two other starters in the series - Mike Hauschild and Ryan Borucki - earning their respective first career victories. But for today, Seattle should find success against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed 19 ER in his last 20 1/3 IP, which works out to an 8.51 ERA. His TSR over that timeframe 1-4. The Mariners will counter w/ Mike Leake, who has been durable if nothing else. He's turned in quality starts each of his L3 times out, the last two both coming here at home. I just can't see the M's getting swept at home, so despite my overall view of the team, I'll take 'em Sunday. 8* Seattle

8* Arizona (4:10 ET): The D'backs had lost four in a row to the Giants here at home following an 8-1 setback on Thursday (w/ Greinke on the hill). But they've ended that w/ wins each of the last two days, including 9-3 yday (I was on them Friday in a 6-3 win). My belief is that the Giants are still an overrated ballclub as they've been outscored this season (by 30 runs) despite a .500 record entering play on Sunday. They're also not a very good road team, as evident by their 24-34 record away from AT&T Park. They often forget to "bring their bats" on road trips as they average just 3.6 runs per game. Only three teams - Detroit, Baltimore and San Diego - have scored fewer runs this season on the road. So I look for the D'backs to take this game and series. 

With the events of the last two days, Arizona is back in 1st place in the NL West. They've got a one-game lead over the Dodgers, who are having trouble w/ the Astros this weekend. In an effort to widen their division lead, today the D'backs hand the baseball to Robbie Ray. Now he's his fair share of struggles of late and truthfully has not pitched very well at home this season. He spent basically two months on the DL and hasn't looked like the same pitcher since returning. But he did have two strong starts against the Giants earlier in the year, including one here at Chase Field where he went six innings and allowed only two runs. He is 4-1 in his career against San Fran (10 starts) w/ a 2.84 ERA. One area where he's been very good all year is striking opposing hitters out. Only the Nationals' Max Scherzer has higher K rate per nine innings among NL starters w/ at least 1100 pitches. 

Arizona has been able to jump on Giants pitching early and often each of the last two days w/ B2B five-run first innings. Today, they'll face Derek Holland. While he's pitched better than Ray of late, I question how he'll fare here against an offense that appears to be finding its way. Only once in the last nine games has Arizona NOT scored at least five runs. Another key factor here is the Arizona bullpen, which has the best ERA in the National League. Might this one be closer than the last two games? Possibly. But it'll still end up being a D'backs win nonetheless. 8* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): Last night marked the first time the Astros and Dodgers had met since last year's World Series. Just like the 2017 Fall Classic, Houston came out on top, this time by a score of 2-1 behind a strong start from Justin Verlander, who finished w/ 14 K's. All of the scoring came early. These teams could very well end up facing each other again in the World Series as they rank #2 and #4 overall in run differential and have both actually UNDERperformed in terms of wins and losses so far. Despite the setback last night, I fully anticipate the Dodgers bouncing back Saturday. You may know that the Astros have the best middle infield in the game w/ Jose Altuve at 2B and Carlos Correa at SS. Well, both of those All-Stars are currently out of the lineup. 

I have a ton of respect for Houston and what they are able to do, especially on the road where they've gone a ridiculous 37-17 this year, outscoring teams by 2.6 runs per game! No other team can even touch that kind of performance away from home. However, as noted above, they're not at full strength right now. Last weekend saw them get swept for the 1st time all season (at home, by Texas!) and after taking two of three from an overrated Seattle team came last night's win. But a big difference between tonight and last is the quality of pitcher they'll send to the hill. It won't be Verlander, Gerrit Cole or Dallas Keuchel. Instead, it's Lance McCullers, who is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 9.22 ERA and 1.903 WHIP. In an Astros rotation that has been remarkably healthy so far (used same five starters the whole way), McCullers is the clear "weak link." It's been 14 runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings those L3 starts w/ 10 walks. 

Houston is the top offensive team on the road this season, but remember they are down the DH here. Last night saw them manage only two runs on four hits. It was the fifth time in the last seven games that they failed to top three runs, a stretch which has seen them average just 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .226. (Only against Seattle did they top three runs). Dodger Stadium is notorious for run suppression and this year has been no different w/ visitors averaging just 3.7 rpg here (.235 BA). Kenta Maeda will toe the rubber for LA tonight and while he's been a bit shaky himself recently, overall it's been a pretty good year. Maeda faced the Astros four times in last year's World Series, all in a relief role, and gave up just a single run in 5 2/3 IP. The Dodgers haven't lost B2B games too many times during this 45-24 run of theirs, which dates back to mid-May. In fact, they've had just four losing streaks during that time. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): As I'd previously anticipated/discussed, we're finally starting to see Colorado regress a little bit. They've now dropped four of five and three of the losses (including last night here in Milwaukee) have come in walkoff fashion. That might sound a tad bit unlucky, but the reality is the Rockies have been pretty lucky for awhile now, so consider this recent rash of losses their "comeuppance." This is a ballclub that's somehow managed to remain above .500 (currently seven games over) despite being outscored this season. I realize the NL West is very much a four-team race right now, but I consider the Dodgers and D'backs the class of that division. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew are a far more viable playoff contender w/ a +37 run differential and last night was a nice bounce back after getting killed by the Dodgers (21-5!) on Thursday.

The Brew Crew enter the day one game back of the Cubs in the NL Central. They actually have one more win than the Cubbies, but are three back in the loss column. They're now 34-21 at home this year, including 14-4 when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line. They'll hand the ball to rookie Freddy Peralta tonight and that's a good thing, especially considering the opposition. Back in May, Peralta made his big-league debut against these Rockies and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, finishing w/ 13 strikeouts! That was at Coors Field as well. The Rockies are obviously a far less dynamic offense on the road where they average only 4.3 rpg (down from NL-leading 5.3 at home). In three starts at Miller Park, Peralta has a 0.842 WHIP. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his nine starts and is holding opponents to a .155 batting average w/ 63 K's. 

You have to question the psyche of the Rockies' players after all the close losses in recent days. Closer Wade Davis has blown B2B save opportunities. Their starter Tyler Anderson has been every bit as good as Peralta recently, save for his last time out (allowed 4 runs), but he has a 5.91 career ERA here at Miller Park and curiously has been a bit better at home this year (despite the obvious hitter-friendly conditions). Lack of run support has plagued Anderson and that may be the case again w/ the offense having scored only 34 runs total the L11 games. Milwaukee is also 47-22 in night games this year. 10* Milwaukee

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Well, the Giants did it again yday, winning for a fourth straight time at Chase Field. Last night may have been the most impressive of the bunch as they beat Zack Greinke, 8-1. However, the majority of that damage came against the Arizona bullpen, not Greinke. Equally as frustrating for the D'backs is the fact they had nearly the same number of hits as the Giants in the lopsided loss. But they were just 3 of 11 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. With revenge still a factor and San Francisco still overrated (at least in my mind), I'll come back w/ the hosts yet again Friday night as they're big favorites w/ Pat Corbin on the mound. Again, the Giants aren't a particularly good road team (just 24-32 overall), so their success rate here in the desert is a little confounding to say the least.

Something else to note w/ the Giants is their YTD run differential. It's -21, yet they are 56-53 overall on the year. Theoretically, a team should not have a winning record when it's being outscored. The run differential was even worse before winning each of the last four games, so you can really "color me surprised" over last night. But again, this team generally does NOT play well on the road. They average just 3.6 rpg, so last night's late inning barrage seems like an anamoly. I also wouldn't put much faith in tonight's starter Chase Stratton, who will be making his first big-league start in a month. Stratton was demoted after allowing a total of 13 ER in his L2 starts, both coming against Colorado and spent almost a month down on the farm. He's made one relief appearance since being recalled last Thursday.

Corbin has the clear edge in this starting pitching matchup. He's faced the Giants more times than any other opponent in his career, including one start in all four series the teams have played here in '18. His record against them this year is 2-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA. One of those wins was a CG shutout (back on April 17th), here at home. He has 29 strikeouts in 26 2/3 IP this year vs SF and has allowed just 14 hits. Tonight will be his first time starting at home in nearly a month. He has a 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts at Chase Field this season, so I expect him to pitch quite well here. The fact that this will be just the fifth time all season that Arizona closes north of -175 on the ML is pretty telling. 8* Arizona

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Kansas City's failed attempt at a sweep yesterday (lost 6-3 to the White Sox) leaves them w/ just one sweep over the last calendar year. It came against the Twins, immediately following the All-Star Break. Not that Minnesota needed any additional edges, but they also had Thursday off. While this season has been nowhere near as good as last year in the Twin Cities, this just might be the easiest win of the season for Minny. There's no excuse for getting swept by the Royals as they own the league's second worst record (34-74) and worst run differential (-191). Yesterday afternoon's loss was a tough one as they gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth after they'd rallied for three of their own in the top of the frame. That's got to be extremely discouraging for a team that is already "going nowhere fast." 

A big difference between this series and the last one between the teams is venue. It was in KC where the Royals swept the Twins and while they're a lousy team whether at home or on the road, Minnesota is far better here at Target Field where their record is 30-24. (They're 19-34 on the road). The Twins were shutout here on Wednesday, 2-0 by the Indians, but it was only the fifth time all season that they were shutout and their record is 3-1 off the prior four times. The offense should find far more success against this beleaguered Royals staff this weekend, starting w/ tonight's starter, Heath Fillmyer. Granted two of his three starts came against the Red Sox and Yankees, but the Royals have yet to win w/ Fillmyer on the mound this year. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.437 WHIP. 

Minnesota will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, who isn't exactly having the most dominant year himself. But he did pitch quite well against KC in the last series between the two teams. He went six innings and gave up just two runs (one unearned) on two hits. Yet, the Twins still lost the game, 5-3. That's the definition of a hard-luck decision right there and I like his chances of pitching just as well tonight. The Royals are dead last in all of MLB in runs scored, not to mention they're also 25th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 28th in slugging. I look for the revenge-minded home team to roll in this series opener. 8* Minnesota

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Perhaps we need to come to terms w/ the fact that St. Louis, perennial pennant contenders, simply are nothing more than mediocre in their current state. They're still above .500 mind you, and not that far off the Wild Card chase, but they were very lucky to just take three of four from the Rockies at home. Two of the wins saw them rally in the bottom of the ninth, so the series easily could have gone the other way. Now, lampooning the Cardinals while at the same time endorsing a Pirates club that has an identical record and inferior run differential may seem odd to you. But the bottom line is that the Bucs have been the far better ballclub over the last month, winning 14 of the last 18 games. Tonight is the debut of Chris Archer, their big acquisition at the trade deadline, and thus I expect a strong effort at PNC Park. 

The Pirates have a nice little edge here in that they were off on Thursday while St. Louis was finishing its series w/ the Rockies. The Bucs are off a loss, 6-2 to the Cubs on Wednesday, but haven't dropped B2B games in almost a month. Bringing in Archer was a clear sign that the front office is willing to "go for it" here in 2018. Archer has finished in the top three in strikeouts over in the American League each of the last three seasons. Like most pitchers, he should find things a bit easier in the Senior Circuit. While this season hasn't necessarily been up to his usual standard, Archer is off B2B quality starts, one them being a 13 K performance. 

Unlike the Bucs, St. Louis seems to have its eye on the future rather than the present. It started w/ the sacking of manager Mike Matheny before the All-Star Break. They are 8-7 since the All-Star Break, which is a little surprising seeing as they've recently called up EIGHT minor leaguers. John Gant will get the baseball Friday and he's coming off his shortest stint of the season, 4 2/3 innings vs. the Cubs (Cards lost the game 5-2). Gant also has a 4.22 career ERA vs. Pittsburgh w/ no victories in four appearances. The team has dropped six of his eight starts overall in '18. The Pirates are not only 27-17 vs. the rest of the NL Central this year, they're also 9-5 following an off-day. They're the play here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): This will be the second time in three starts that Madison Bumgarner checks in as the underdog. I cautioned about being tempted to play him the last time and, in fact, played AGAINST he and the Giants in the spot. This was 7/21 in Oakland and sure enough the A's prevailed 4-3 w/ MadBum lasting only four innings and issuing a season-high six walks. Now is that performance indicative of what kind of pitcher he truly is? Hardly. Last time out, he bounced back w/ a gem of an effort at home vs. Milwaukee. But, Bumgarner is still winless on the road this season (0-4 TSR) w/ a 5.06 ERA and 1.594 WHIP. Here, not only does he have a sub-.500 career record vs. Arizona, but he'll be up against Zack Greinke, who is lights out at Chase Field. 

I also happen to think the Giants are a bit overrated coming in off three consecutive victories. Two of those were against San Diego, who is obviously terrible. You already had the fact that the team is playing "above its head," given that they are a game above .500, but have actually been outscored by 28 runs over the course of the season. Also, Arizona has revenge. They were actually swept by the Giants here at home just a little over a month ago. My view is that it's highly unlikely for San Francisco to turn the same "trick" twice. They aren't even a very good road team (23-32 record) as they're being outscored by nearly a full run per game in such contests. Arizona might only be 28-26 at Chase Field this season (surprising given they are in first place), but they have a run differential here than indicates that they've played better than that record. 

Both teams had Wednesday off. The D'backs are 10-2 in this role while the Giants are 7-4. Both are sending aces to the bump tonight. While Bumgarner has mostly been good, I already mentioned his failure to win even a single decision on the road this season. On the other hand, Greinke has a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 11 home starts this season (5-1 WL record). He's been just plain filthy of late, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.573 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in team victories. Over his L7 starts, Greinke has a 1.16 ERA and 0.836 WHIP w/ the team going 6-1. With revenge and Greinke far more "affordable" than usual, I'm all over the home team in this one. 8* Arizona

analysis soon

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): This battle of bottom-feeders may not seem all that appealing at first glance, but the White Sox will be looking to avoid getting swept by the Royals and that makes them an attractive play to me Thursday afternoon. As bad as the White Sox are, the Royals have been worse this season. KC is dead last in all of MLB in run differential (-189) and are the only team w/ a worse ERA than Chicago's staff. Going back a full calendar year, they've pulled off only one sweep, that coming at home against Minnesota right after the All-Star Break. Given their poor 19-36 record on the road this year (also just 15-28 in day games), I have serious doubts that they'll be able to repeat the feat here. Thus, look for the home team to salvage the finale of this three-game set. 

Now the White Sox certainly aren't "gangbusters" at home, or in day games for that matter. Also, last night was the FOURTH time in the past seven games they allowed 10+ runs. They're 1-6 overall during that stretch. But last night saw them go 2 for 16 w/ RISP, which signals to me the loss was more about missed opportunity rather than simply not playing well. Getting swept by the Royals at home would be quite the embarrassment, so I anticipate the players will be motivated here. One player in particular that should be highly motivated is starter Reynaldo Lopez, who has revenge on his mind for a loss to the Royals last month. He gave up five runs in 7 2/3 IP, which was the start of an ugly three-game stretch for the right-hander. Last time out may have been "rock bottom" as Lopez gave up eight runs to Toronto. But he still has a decent 1.166 WHIP here at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

The recent numbers from Royals' starter Brad Keller are no better than Lopez's, yet somehow he has a 2-1 TSR his L3 starts (White Sox have lost the last four times Lopez has taken the mound). That 2-1 TSR is in spite of Keller posting a 7.04 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Last time out may have been the shocker of the year. Even though Keller allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees, the Royals were able to win 10-5 as +340 underdogs on the money line! It was the second time in three starts than Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (1). The other one was against these White Sox as he got hammered for five runs in just 2 2/3 IP w/ four walks and just one strikeout. Coming into this series, the White Sox were 7-2 against the Royals this year. So I can't see them being swept at home. 8* Chi White Sox

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Colorado won yday, 6-3, setting up this "rubber match" of sorts Thursday night at Busch Stadium. Truthfully, the Cardinals should feel somewhat fortunate that they're not on the verge of being swept here. On Tuesday, they rallied back from a 4-1 deficit to win in 10 innings. Last night saw them again struggle offensively as they had just one run entering the final frame. Rockies' starting pitching has been shockingly good of late and should be respected away from the constraints of their home park. But their offense isn't much to "sneeze at" on the road as they're averaging just 4.3 rpg outside of Coors Field this season. Lately, they haven't been doing much hitting at all. Before yday, they'd averaged just 2.9 rpg over the last seven contests w/ a .237 team batting average.

Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado tonight. He's got a 5-0 TSR his L5 outings w/ a 2.76 ERA over the last three. But, his WHIP is 1.408 over those L3 starts as well, which indicates he's been anything but dominant. He's walked six batters the last two starts alone and strikeout numbers from Freeland remain pretty pedestrian. Colorado may "rue the day" they chose not to make any additions at the deadline as they've been a pretty clear overachiever to this point (-1 run differential) and it's pretty crazy to think they enter the day tied w/ the Dodgers (+91 run diff) in the NL West. I do not think the Rockies will be able to maintain their current win percentage, if that run differential stays the same over the course of the year.

Luke Weaver will start here for St. Louis, who is desperately trying to remain relevant in the playoff race itself. They enter Thursday 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Despite having an inferior record compared to Colorado, they do own the slightly superior run differential (+13). They're also 30-22 off a loss. Weaver was very good his last time out, which resulted in a 5-2 win over the Cubs, as he gave up just two runs - both on solo HR's. Three of Weaver's four starts in July were very good as he allowed only five runs in 20 IP. The other was short, and he allowed three runs in four innings, but that was in Wrigley. This is a much weaker offense he'll be facing here, one that had scored four runs or fewer in seven straight games prior to yday. I look for the Cardinals to win this game and possibly the series (wraps up Thursday afternoon). 10* St. Louis

8* Houston (4:05 ET): These two AL West rivals are separated by only four games in the standings and have split the first two games of this three-game set. However, to call them "evenly matched" would be HIGHLY misleading. What I've written about each of the last two days, and will continue to harp on here, is how the respective run differentials of the two teams tell a VERY different story than the standings do. Houston has outscored its opponents by a MLB-high 180 runs so far this season. Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED, despite being 19 games over .500. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on run diff), this is a matchup of the biggest "underachiever" (Astros) and underachiever (Mariners) in all of baseball. Thus, I'll look for Houston to take the series.

The 'Stros were my 10* Game of the Week last night and they came through, winning 5-2. That win actually snapped a season-worst five-game losing streak, which saw them get swept for the 1st time all year (by Texas over the weekend). Key to the Astros success this season has been their remarkable play on the road where they average 5.5 rpg (tied for most in MLB w/ Oakland), which in turn is responsible for them being +2.5 rpg away from home, easily the best mark in all of baseball. They are also 23-12 in day games so far and I like the fact they'll be sending Dallas Keuchel to the bump this afternoon. Keuchel, a former Cy Young, has been great of late w/ a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he did lose as a huge favorite (-260 vs. Texas), but prior to that the team had won each of the five times he'd taken the hill. There have only been two instances all year where the team lost B2B Keuchel starts. One was in April and none since June.

Keuchel is 0-2 vs. Seattle this season, but he's 8-7 against them all-time w/ a 3.17 ERA. I think the third time will be the charm this afternoon. The Astros' offense failed to show up either of the two previous tries (just 1 run both games), but that should NOT be the case here against Wade LeBlanc, who - like most in the Seattle rotation - has overachieved. Houston beat LeBlanc back in June, getting to him for three runs in four innings (final score was 7-5). LeBlanc's ERA in seven career appearances vs. Houston is 5.32. He's actually made two additional appearances vs. them in '18 (non-starts) and has given up a total of seven runs on 12 hits in 8 IP. Now that the losing skid is over, look for the Astros to go back to dominating. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Toronto (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto is on the verge of being swept for a second time by Oakland this season. They lost all four games at home earlier in the year (May) and have gone 0 for 2 here in Oakland this weekend, losing by scores of 10-1 and 6-2. While the A's seem to be surging towards a possible Wild Card, they've definitely overachieved some, as they've got the run differential of a 60-win team (actual reecord is 63-46), although nowhere to the degree that the team they're chasing (Seattle) has. That little bit of overachieving can be directly tied to a fortunate 19-9 record in one-run games. We're "shielded" from that particular result here and though the Jays definitely are the inferior ballclub here, I don't think their YTD record vs. the A's is properly reflective of the difference between the two teams. Getting swept by the same opponent twice is pretty rare. Take the +1.5. 

Marcus Stroman starts today for Toronto and should play a significant role in the Jays doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Stroman is off B2B solid starts where he's allowed just three runs in 13+ IP. Granted, those two starts came against the White Sox and Orioles, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. But save for one head-scratching start against the Mets on the Fourth of July, Stroman has been pretty good overall since returning from the DL back in late June. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of the seven starts. Something to remember w/ this opponent (Oakland) is that they are strangely inferior at the plate when here at home compared to on the road. For the season, the A's are averaging just 3.9 rpg in Oakland (.227 BA). They lead all of MLB in scoring on the road at 5.5 rpg. 

Stroman is the best starter Toronto will send to the mound in this series, so perhaps he's the one that can finally take advantage of the A's hitters not being as prolific here by the Bay. As for Oakland, they counter w/ Sean Manaea, who likes pitching here at home (0.818 WHIP). However, his results haven't been that great as he's just 3-4 in 10 starts (6-4 TSR). Getting back to the Oakland offense, remember that they only scored four runs this past weekend in three games at Coors Field. The A's have actually been outscored here at home this season and w/ the line currently doing some "curious things," I'll side w/ the road team +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These two NL Playoff hopefuls continue a three-game set Tuesday w/ a pitching matchup of Wade Miley vs. Walker Buehler. Milwaukee took last night's series opener (which featured a 23-minute delay to a power outage), 5-2, by jumping on Kenta Maeda early. The loss was actually the Dodgers' second in a row, but I can't see that streak continuing, given how well they've played over the last couple months (39-21 L60 games, including 16-9 in July). As for Milwaukee, they too failed to sweep their last series, losing on Sunday. But they've been a lot more mediocre this month, going just 14-13 overall. In a prior series vs. the Dodgers (concluded less than 10 days ago), they won just one of the three games and that was at Miller Park.

Having won Monday, Milwaukee probably feels pretty good about itself as they send the veteran Miley to the bump. That's because Miley, a Los Angeles native, has enjoyed a great deal of success at Chavez Ravine throughout his career. He's 3-0 w/ a 2.41 ERA in six career starts here. He also pitched well against the Dodgers in the last series between the two teams, allowing only an unearned run over six innings. However, the Brewers went onto lose that game, 6-4. Miley has a surprisingly low ERA in his five starts this season (2.02), but his WHIP (1.388) indicates that number may be a little misleading. Strikeout numbers are unimpressive for Miley and in fact he has more walks than K's this season. That's never a good sign. I do not expect him to pitch as well here as he did the last time vs. the Dodgers. 

Buehler has also pitched well at Chavez Ravine, posting a 1.78 ERA and 0.764 WHIP (six starts) here in this, his rookie season. There's a little concern after he tied a season-high by giving up five runs last time out. But that was on the road (at Philadelphia). He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any home start, which is a good sign obviously. So is the fact they have only one three-game losing streak since mid-May. In fact, this is just the second time in July that they've dropped B2B games. They are 17-5 the L22 times they've been off a loss. So the odds are high that they'll bounce back tonight. I'm on 'em. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The Astros did not work out for me last night as they were shutout by the Mariners, 2-0. It was the 'Stros fifth loss in a row overall, which is their worst such streak all year (previous high was three). Over the weekend, they were swept for the first time all season - by the Rangers. Despite this, I fully expect a bounce back tonight in Seattle. As discussed yday, the gap in the standings between these two AL West may be down to just a few games (3, to be exact), but the respective levels of play this season are not even close. While the Mariners have actually been outscored this season (despite being 20 games over .500), Houston has a run differential of +177. Based on the runs scored vs. allowed formula, the Astros' division lead should be TWENTY-ONE games, not three! 

Charlie Morton will toe the rubber for the visitors tonight. In his only prior start against Seattle this year, Morton pitched quite well. He allowed threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ eight strikeouts and no walks. Houston won the game 9-2. That's been part of an incredible 2018 renaissance for Morton as he now stands at 11-2 in 20 starts w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.158 WHIP. Last time out, he experienced a bit of hard luck as he allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in six innings, but the team lost 3-2 at Colorado. That was the start of the current five-game slide. Morton may have started this season-high losing streak (not his fault, obviously), but I'm calling for him to also be the one to stop it.

The Astros' offense also needs to pick it up. They've scored just 10 runs total during the five-game slide and last night was just the sixth time they've been shutout all season. They've won each of the last three times after being shutout coming into this game. History suggests to expect an offensive explosion as they are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road this year. That's led to them having - by far - the best road run differential in the league at +2.5 rpg. Now they don't have Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve right now, but I'll still take what's left against Mike Leake, whose 14-7 team start record is a total overachievement given his 4.15 ERA and 1.289 WHIP. We've already started to see some regression from Leake as the team has won just one of his last four starts and that was his last time out. I'll continue to maintain that the Mariners are highly overrated as their overall WL record has been propped up by a MLB-best 27-14 record in one-run games. Whether it's by one run or 10 runs, it'll be the Astros winning tonight. 10* Houston

10* Houston (10:10 ET): The gap between these two AL West rivals currently stands at four games. That's pretty preposterous given the respective run differentials. Division leader Houston has outscored its opposition by a MLB-high 179 runs while second place Seattle has actually been OUTSCORED (by three runs). In terms of actual vs. expected wins (again, this is according to run differential), you won't find a bigger underachiever (Houston) or overachiever (Seattle) in all of baseball. The 67-40 Astros have played to the level of a 74-win team according to run diff while a Mariners team that is currently 62-43 has played to the level of a 52-win team. So the 4-game gap that actually exists "should" be 18 games according to run differential. I look for that discrepancy to become somewhat rectified this week at Safeco Field, starting tonight. 

For Monday's series opener, each side will be sending arguably its best pitcher to the mound. For Houston, that's Gerrit Cole. What a season he's had after coming over from Pittsburgh. The Astros have won 17 of his 21 starts w/ Cole posting a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Those numbers rank 5th and 4th respectively among AL starters and he's also averaging a phenomenal 12.4 per nine innings. Last time out, he allowed just two runs on five hits in six innings. He also had nine strikeouts, making it four straight starts w/ 7+ K's. Both runs allowed Tuesday at Colorado came on doubles in the 7th inning. Still, Houston wound up winning, 8-2. The team was just swept (for the 1st time ALL year!), over the weekend by Texas. But that was at home. What's unique about this year's Astros is how dominant they've been on the road. They're outscoring teams by 2.5 rpg away from Minute Maid Park, easily the best differential on the road in all of baseball. 

Seattle counters Cole w/ James Paxton. This will be his 1st start in 17 days as he was a scratch last Tuesday due to a bad back. Thus, he'll likely be on a pitch count tonight. Personally, I think this is a great spot to fade Paxton as he hadn't looked the same over the past month anyway. It's a real "baptism" by fire facing the Astros in his first start back. The Mariners just avoided getting swept w/ an 8-5 win over the Angels on Sunday as they scored all but one of those runs in the top of the first. Don't look for that kind of cluster luck at Cole's expense. Neither pitcher has lost to this opponent this year w/ Paxton holding a pair of wins against the 'Stros and Cole having thrown seven scoreless innings here at Safeco back in April. It boils down to Paxton being a great fade in this spot and Houston simply being the much better team. They're also going to highly motivated to bounce back after this past weekend's debacle. 10* Houston

8* Run Line Toronto (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Oakland got a "cold dose" of reality over the weekend as they got swept out in Colorado. Despite playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field AND being the highest scoring road team in all of MLB, they managed all of four runs in the entire three-game series. Now, upon their return home, I feel it will be a cold dose of another "r" word, that being revenge. Toronto has it, stemming from a four-game sweep that occurred North of the Border all the way back in May. You don't see that happen too often (a home team getting swept in a four-game series), so the Jays will come in highly motivated. They do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

While Oakland was getting swept in Colorado, Toronto took two of three from the lowly White Sox over the weekend. Now, they were very close to losing the series and dropping B2B games on Sunday. But they scored five runs in the top of the ninth for the 7-4 win. Overall, it was a good weekend for the offense, as they tallied 22 runs against White Sox pitching. They did lose rookie Lourdes Gurriel Jr to an ankle injury, but should be just fine here against A's starter Edwin Jackson, who has slipped recently w/ 5.21 ERA his L3 starts. Though the team still won (6-5 over Texas), Jackson is off his worst start of the season, having allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Another thing that should concern Oakland is their somewhat massive offensive decline at home. While they lead all of MLB in runs scored on the road (5.6 per game), they drop all the way down to a mystifying 3.7 rpg at home w/ a .224 batting average. That should be "music to the ears" of Jays' starter Marco Estrada, who comes off the DL here to start for the first time in almost a month. Normally, I might consider that a time to fade, but we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work w/ here and Estrada threw a quality start against Oakland earlier this year. It was a hard-luck loss to be sure as Estrada allowed just three runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings and finished w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. But he was supported w/ only one run. I'll call for more offense tonight from Toronto and Estrada to take care of the rest. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Last Tuesday, Wei-Yen Chen and the Marlins upset Julio Teheran and the Braves 9-3 as +110 ML underdogs. I just can't see "lightning striking twice," especially w/ the scene now shifting to SunTrust Park where the Braves were big winners yday, 7-0, behind a near no-hitter from Sean Newcomb. Now that almost "no-no" (one out short!) only helped the Braves avoid what would have been a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. But going from facing LA to Miami is a significant drop in class even if the former is coming off B2B wins over Washington (at home). Even w/ the two wins, the Marlins were only able to salvage a series split w/ the Nats and they remain well below .500 (46-61) and also own the worst run diffrerential in the entire National League at -129. Atlanta is tops in the NL East in run diff (+62) and I like them a lot here w/ starter Teheran out for revenge. 

Teheran did not pitch well - at all - six days ago against the Marlins. Given the final score, that shouldn't come as a shock, but it was still jarring to see him get blasted for nine runs - seven earned - in just 4 1/3 IP. Troubling is the fact it was Teheran's second bad start against Miami this year, the other one coming here at home (back in May). But I'm willing to say the "third time will be the charm" as he's working on an added day of rest here. Originally, he was set to pitch Sunday, but both he and Newcomb were pushed back a day. Considering how well that worked for Newcomb (who had struggled mightily this season), I'd say there's a lot of hope for Teheran here. He threw 6 1/3 shutout innings in his last home start and has given up just one run total his L13 IP here. 

Meanwhile, the home-road splits for Chen are pretty striking. Four of his last five starts have been in Miami and he's allowed 1 ER or less in all of them. But in the one away from home, he gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. The end result was an ugly 18-4 loss at Washington and that was by no means the first time Chen got beat up on the road. His ERA and WHIP in eight road starts this season are 10.47 and 2.021 respectively. That's just brutal. Overall, Miami is a terrible road team, getting outscored 1.8 rpg. They allow the highest number of rpg on the road (5.9) in the entire National League. I think the Braves re-discovered their offense yday and will beat up on Chen tonight. 8* Atlanta

8* LA Angels (4:05 ET): We're starting to see what I felt was an inevitable decline for the Mariners finally take hold. The truth is that this team has overachieved all season long and is nowhere near as dominant as its 61-43 record might suggest. After dropping the first two games of this series, the M's have now actually been outscored over the course of the season (-6 run differential). How is that even possible, you ask? Well, they've happened to go a MLB-best 27-14 in one-run games, not to mention 8-1 in extra innings. That lone extra inning loss happened to occur Friday night here in LA, then they were drubbed yday by a score of 11-5. Consider that the Angels actually have a far better YTD run differential (+39) despite being eight games back of Seattle in the AL West. They are the better team here. 

Offensively, the Angels are in a zone right now as last night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they scored 10 runs or more. Meanwhile, since the All-Star Break, Seattle has been in a funk at the plate. They've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of the last nine games and that doesn't even include last night's drubbing. The hot Angels hitters will see a familiar face on the mound today, that being Marco Gonzales, who they've already faced four times this year and twice this month! Now they've yet to beat Gonzales, but three of the previous four matchups came in the Pacific Northwest. Here in LA, I'm banking on the "fifth time being the charm." While the two starts earlier this month were quality, the other two for Gonzales against the Angels were not.

The Halos will turn to Felix Pena as they look to sweep their division rival right out of town. Though only 3-3 in six starts this season, Pena has a 2.73 ERA and 1.247 WHIP, so he's pitched relatively well. In fact, he's allowed no more than 3 ER in any start. Last time out, despite a quality start, he lost as a big favorite (-185 on ML) to the White Sox. But that wasn't necessarily his fault; he got no run support until the 8th inning, well after he'd been pulled. Unlike Gonzales, Pena will benefit from an "unfamiliarity" factor as the Mariners have yet to face him. While a good home team, Seattle is nothing more than pedestrian on the road. 8* LA Angels

10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): You don't see road teams come in and achieve a four-game sweep very often, so the odds are against Milwaukee winning here. Sure enough, the Brew Crew have NEVER swept a four-game series here in San Fran, whether you're talking AT&T Park or Candlestick. Now they've obviously played well this weekend, thus opening up a nice lead in the National League Wild Card race. But history is against them today in more ways than one. They're just 17-26 in day games this season and just 4-12 on Sundays (some obvious overlap there). The Giants came into this series sporting a 31-18 record at home and although they've largely overachieved in staying above .500 this season, I think they're a great play this afternoon.  

Today's pitching matchup is an interesting one as Junior Guerra and Andrew Suarez are two of only 13 NL starters have to sub-4.00 ERAs and a losing record. For Milwaukee, Guerra's recent decline is a little more worrisome. While the team has won five of his last six turns, he has posted a 1.67 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's largely owed to one terrible start at Pittsburgh back on 7.13, but he also gave up three unearned runs his last time out, which was his only start since the All-Star Break. Guerra also hasn't struck out many batters over his L3 starts. 

Suarez has pitched better than Guerra recently, giving up just nine runs total his L4 starts. Yet he has nothing to show for it as he's in danger of a winless July. Maybe some "home cooking" is what he needs as he's got a 3.35 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight starts at AT&T Park this season. The Giants' last win happened to come w/ Suarez on the hill, Tuesday vs. Seattle. I just can't see the Giants getting swept at home. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Atlanta (1:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves at +1.5. With the Phillies losing each of the last two days, there was a great opportunity for Atlanta to make a move in the NL East. Alas, the opportunity has been wasted. Entering Sunday, the Braves will simply be looking to avoid getting swept by the red-hot Dodgers here at SunTrust Park. To call the last three days "disappointing" would be putting it mildly as the home team has been outscored 17-4 (facing Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood). Such a performance from Atlanta here at home is quite rare. Fortunately for them, the old handicapping mentality of a four-game sweep at home being rare applies here. I'll say they do no worse than a one-run loss this afternoon. 

Now, it's quite obvious that beating the Dodgers is no small feat. There was a time early in the season when LA was dead last in MLB in net units. But they've turned it around and now seized control of the NL West thanks to winning 43 of their last 63 games. That said, not only are four game sweeps as the road team rare, so too has been sweeping the Braves. The last time the Dodgers swept the Braves in a four-game series was 1990! Ross Stripling will the starter tasked w/ the job and while he's generally pitched well this season, he's coming off an outing where he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Considering he allowed 3 HR's, the Dodgers should feel fortunate that they were still able to win that game (7-6 over the Phillies). The team is 4-0 in Stripling starts in July, but he's allowed 4+ ER in two of those.

The Braves have now dropped 13 of 18, thanks to a pretty severe offensive decline. In addition to scoring only four runs in this series, they've averaged just 2.2 rpg those L18 games. But, for most of the season, they've been near the top of the league in scoring at home. So, it's just a matter of time before they starting swinging the bats better. I'm also encouraged by the way today's starter Sean Newcomb pitched his last time out. Granted, the offense showed up that day (Braves won 12-1), but Newcomb allowed just one run - on a solo HR - over six strong innings. The team had dropped his last five starts previous to that, but he's still 9-5 in 20 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA and 1.279 WHIP. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Arizona (8:40 ET): It's pretty surprising that the D'backs are only 5-3 head to head w/ the Padres this season, given the respective ends of the spectrum where the two have resided for most of the season. But they had no problem winning here in San Diego last night, doing so 6-2 behind a strong effort from Zack Greinke. While the offense has generally failed to impress in '18, they should have their way tonight against embattled Padres' starter Tyson Ross, who they absolutely destroyed earlier this month. Back on 7.7, they scored eight times off Ross - in just two innings - in what ended up being a 20-5 victory. Ross had lost his previous five decisions before winning his last time out. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Pat Corbin has a 2.23 ERA w/ 41 K's in his L6 starts (no HR allowed). 

Working on seven days' rest his last time out, Corbin threw 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes and was able to induce 18 swings and misses, a very good number. Despite a decreased velocity, he's still averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He's had a surprising lack of success against the Padres in his career, but did hold them to just two runs (in 6 IP) earlier this year. Pitching has NOT been an issue for Arizona this season (allow just 3.9 rpg) nor has been playing on the road where they've gone 30-23 overall. It's not like San Diego is a good home either; their record at Petco Park this season is only 19-31 and they're being outscored by a ghastly 1.2 rpg. 

Ross has been a lot better since getting crushed by the D'backs three weeks ago, but I don't see that as the start of anything special. The team is actually 12-8 in his 20 starts this season (6-0 when he does NOT factor into the decision), but that's in spite of a 4.37 ERA and 1.297 WHIP. Both of those numbers actually go UP here at home. Since getting within four games over .500 last month, San Diego has dropped 26 of its last 34 games. I don't need much of a reason to fade the last place team in the NL West as they aren't any good offensively (28th or lower in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) and shown no signs of "life" recently. 8* Arizona

8* Washington (7:10 ET): Sometimes, one teams just "owns" another. That is obviously the case when it comes to the NL East "rivalry" between the Nationals and Marlins. The former is 8-1 this season against the latter, including easy wins (10-3 and 9-1) in the first two games of this weekend series. The domination really extends beyond just this year, however, as the Nats have taken 21 of the 28 total meetings since the start of last season. They are 5-0 at Miami in 2018. I see no reason why the trend won't continue tonight w/ Gio Gonzalez on the mound. There's no denying that the Nats have been one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, but this is pretty clearly a "get well" series against the team that owns the National League's worst run differential (-135).

Washington was actually below .500 before their current three-game win streak began (now 52-51 overall), but they've outscored their opponents this season by a healthy 44 run margin. That tells me that they're due for better results moving forward. That +44 run differential is actually better than the first place team in the NL East, Philadelphia, who is "only" +30. Yet, somehow the Nats are six games back. Look for that gap to get rectified though in the coming days. Gonzalez is off one of his shakier efforts of the year, but the southpaw doesn't allow more than 3 ER very often. Meanwhile, the Washington offense has scored 26 runs the L3 games. They've been shutout three times in Gonzalez's last six starts (and scored just SEVEN runs total!), but they'll make up for that tonight.

While Washington has clearly underachieved in '18, Miami has actually overachieved. That sounds strange to say for a 44-61 team, but according to run differential, the Marlins have played to the level of a 38-win team. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in the entire NL and second largest in all of baseball (Seattle). The Fish had only three hits last night and are 27th in runs scored for the year. They'll start a rookie tonight, Trevor Richards, who does come in off B2B quality starts. But .. we're still looking at a 4.41 ERA and 1.457 WHIP for the year from him. Given what we've seen over the last two games, I see no reason why Miami would be able to "put it together" tonight.  Make it another win for the Nationals. 8* Washington 

10* NY Mets (7:05 ET): From 7.11 to 7.24 (bookending the All-Star Break), Pittsburgh won 11 straight games. I called for that losing streak to come to an end Wednesday though and that it did, in shutout fashion no less, in Cleveland. They lost again Thursday, this time at home, in the series opener to the Mets. But they bounced back Friday w/ a 5-4 win. I'm on the record as saying the Bucs are likely to "give a little back" in the coming weeks as that 11-game run "reeked" of randomness. I'm also on the record as saying the Mets' Jacob deGrom may be the unluckiest pitcher in recent memory. Despite possessing a 1.71 ERA and 0.967 WHIP, deGrom somehow is only 5-5 in his 20 starts (w/ an 8-12 TSR). But I'll call for him to get the win here against a team that has been overachieving of late. 

The "somehow" that's responsible for deGrom's poor team start record is pretty easy identify as it's a clear lack of run support. Over his L16 starts, the Mets have topped five runs just once and that was a 12-2 win at hitter-friendly Coors Field. They've scored three runs or fewer 13 times during that stretch! But I'll call for the offense to support him today, despite the fact that Pirates starter Trevor Williams comes in riding an 11-inning scoreless streak. Williams is hardly durable as he's gone more than six innings just two times all season. His WHIP isn't very good over his L3 starts (1.50) and it's not like the Bucs' bullpen is lights out. Note that his last start was shortened by rain, allowing the Pirates to prevail 7-0 in Cleveland. 

Meanwhile, we pretty much "know" what we are gonna get from deGrom. He's gone 17 straight starts w/ allowing 3 ER or fewer. Last time out, he was outstanding as he struck out 10 batters in eight innings. He's now gone eight innings each of his L3 starts. Unfortunately though, there was an error that opened the door for him allowing two runs Monday vs. San Diego, then he got hit w/ another (unearned) and the Mets wound up losing 3-2. However, don't let that result mask the fact deGrom threw a first pitch strike to 26 of the 31 batters he faced. Or the fact, he still leads the NL in ERA (and is 2nd in WHIP). deGrom is the "great equalizer" here and long overdue for better results. At the same time, Pittsburgh is "due" for a downturn. 10* NY Mets

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have a bit of a built-in advantage here as they had Thursday off while the Cubs were wrapping up a series w/ the D'backs. They're also at home. Now, like their overall record, the Cards are just a 50/50 proposition at Busch Stadium. They've actually been outscored here over the course of the season. But if there was ever a time to get going, it's right now as the team finds itself on the outskirts of playoff contention. They're only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, though they'd have to jump several teams to get the spot. Hosting their main rival after a long eight-game road trip seems like all the motivation they'll need and I like St. Louis to take tonight's series opener. 

The Cubs were able to salvage a split w/ the D'backs after dropping the first two games of the series. But both wins were of the one-run variety and they managed all of four runs in the first three games. Though the Cubs have actually underperformed in terms of wins and losses, at least according to run differential, they've been a pretty lucky team in July w/ numerous come from behind wins. Yesterday was another example w/ them scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth for a 7-6 win. They actually overcame what was a five-run deficit at one point. It was their 12th come from behind victory in the last month alone, which seems like a pretty unsustainable blueprint for success, if you ask me. Two of those 12 come from behind victories came at the Cardinals expense in the first series after the All-Star Break, but note St. Louis actually outscored them in that series, due to winning one of the games 18-5. 

St. Louis actually has a winning record this year vs. the Cubs (7-6), including a 4-2 mark here at home. But tonight's starter, Luke Weaver, has had no success against the Cubs in his career nor at home this year. Weaver is 0-3 w/ a 10.89 ERA in five career starts vs. the Cubs and just lost to them in his most recent start (gave up three runs in four innings). He's also 0-4 in eight home starts this season. But he still has a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts overall and I think he's going to surprise tonight. He's also up against a weak starting pitcher for the Cubs, that being Mike Montgomery, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Montgomery was also unsuccessful in his last start, which came against this very opponent. Yes, the Cubs are the better team overall, but they won't be on this night. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (8:10 ET): For a White Sox team that isn't any good to begin with, this is an absolutely brutal spot. After wrapping up a four-game set out in LA yday afternoon (lost 12-8), they had to fly back East (across two time zones) and now host a Toronto team that will be motivated after it was swept by Minnesota. The Blue Jays had off yday. These teams haven't met since early April when the Jays were able to take two of three North of the Border. At the time, Toronto fans were thinking their team might have a shot at doing something here in 2018 (started 12-5). But that has proven not to be the case. Still, they're a lot better than a White Sox team that has been outscored by 137 runs this season, which happens to be the third worst differential in all of baseball. 

On its off-day, Toronto made news by dealing J.A. Happ to the division rival Yankees, in exchange for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Drury is expected to be in the lineup tonight. But truthfully, that has little bearing on this play. I like starter Marcus Stroman and what he was able to do in his most recent outing as he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings. Granted, that was against Baltimore, but remember that the White Sox aren't much better than the Orioles. It was also the third time in his last five starts that Stroman went at least seven innings and gave up two runs or fewer. He should have little difficulty here in shutting down a Sox lineup that ranks 24th in runs, 22nd in batting average and 26th in OBP.

When you're 30 games below .500 like the White Sox are, there is little use for a quality closer. So, it was not that surprising to see the Sox ship off Joakim Soria to the Brewers. That netted them a pair of prospects, but it also leaves a big void in the backend of the bullpen. It's a bullpen that's probably going to need to be ready as well, given how poorly today's starter Reynaldo Lopez has pitched of late. In his L3 starts, Lopez is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. The Blue Jays are 8-5 following an off-day and I can't see them losing here. 8* Toronto

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Our 10* Game of the Week play on the Reds last night did NOT work out as they gave up an insane 7 HR's to the Phillies in a 9-4 loss (actually, lucky that final score wasn't even worse as all but one were solo shots). But w/ the revenge angle still in play, I'm going back to the well again tonight. The revenge angle stems from the Reds getting swept out in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. But as discussed yday, they were not the same team back then, which was the "dying days" of the Bryan Price regime. They've basically been a .500 club for interim skipper Jim Riggleman and assuming they do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard tonight, I believe they are in strong position to deliver a win. Despite averaging 6.1 rpg over the last seven days, the Phillies are only batting a collective .220. They also still are a losing proposition on the road. 

I understand how Anthony DeSclafani facing this Phillies lineup could produce some trepidation. DeScalafani has allowed one HR in seven straight starts and eight total in his last four starts. The Phillies have homered in seven straight games and have 15 in just the L4 games. DeSclafani is coming off rough B2B starts, but the Freehold, NJ native (home of Springsteen!) at least had six strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings his last time out, which is an encouraging sign. In addition to hitting a lot of home runs lately, the Phillies have also been striking out a bunch (league-wide trend). They struck out nine times yday, increasing their total to 76 since the All-Star Break. I don't believe those HR totals are sustainable obviously, nor is averaging 6.1 rpg w/ a .220 average. 

The Reds are just 2-5 since the Break w/ all of those games taking place here at home. That's obviously disappointing, but in the last series they did take two of three from the Cardinals. They did battle back from a 4-0 deficit last night, tying things up in the bottom of the fourth inning. This will be the 1st time since 2015 that the Phillies have seen DeSclafani. Meanwhile, it's the second time in 2018 that the Reds will have faced Nick Pivetta, who is the starter tonight for the Phils. While Pivetta did hold Cincy to just two runs on five hits back in April, he's only 5-8 in 20 starts total and has a 5.35 ERA/1.512 WHIP on the road. This is a better price on the Reds compared to yday and really there's no reason for that. 10* Cincinnati

8* Run Line Texas (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is the finale of a four-game set in which the home team has yet to win. Yes, Oakland has been a hot team of late. But they've also had a bit of lady luck riding on their shoulders. Take last night, for example, as they rallied for two runs in the top of the ninth to win 6-5. That was after a 10-inning win Tuesday where they came back from a 10-2 deficit. While they've won five straight, three of those victories have come in extra innings. Given that luck, I've decided that the RL is our best option here. Three of those five straight A's victories have come by exactly one run. I'll say Texas does no worse than a one-run loss here as they look to avoid getting swept (home teams rarely get swept in a four-game series). 

Bartolo Colon will get the baseball for the Rangers tonight as the rotund righty looks to reverse a recent poor stretch. He's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 5.30 ERA. But the thing is, he's been no worse than Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, whose ERA in his L3 starts is 5.14. Cahill also has a slightly higher WHIP in his last three turns. Cahill has the much better overall ERA and WHIP, but not on the road where those numbers are 5.92 and 1.315. He's winless in five road starts and has actually won only one decision in 10 starts total this season (1-2 WL Record). Colon has pitched well against the A's, one of his many former teams, this year and throughout his career. He's 10-6 all-time against them w/ a 3.34 ERA (22 starts). That includes two solid showings here in '18 where he's allowed a total of just three runs in 11 innings of work.

Truthfully, the Texas pitching staff has not done a very good job in this series, but maybe that shouldn't be all that surprising when you consider Oakland is the highest scoring road team in all of MLB. But what is surprising is that the A's are only 18-26 vs. the rest of the AL West this season. They are 7-5 vs. the Rangers, but as detailed above, there's been some great fortune along the way. Right now, Oakland is outperforming its run differential, which says they should have closer to 56 wins, rather than the 60 they actually have. They're also pretty lucky to be 18-8 in one-run games. Playing tonight's game the way we are negates that record, however, and I would not be surprised at all to see Colon lead the Rangers to a win here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Several factors, like the motive of revenge and the line move, point to a big Reds win tonight at Great American Ballpark. But above all else, I'm just not sure I'm a believer in the Phillies. Sure, they come in off B2B wins over LA. That is impressive. But it was basically one big inning that did it yday and then Tuesday was a 16-inning affair. The effects of that game are likely still to be felt this weekend in the Queen City whereas the host Reds should be just fine playing a third straight series at home since the All-Star Break. Simply put, the Phillies are not the same team on the road (23-26 record) as they are at home (34-18) anyway. I say that I'm not a believer in part b/c of a run differential that's roughly equivalent w/ the 50-51 Nationals. I like the Reds big tonight in a revenge spot. 

Yes, the Phils did sweep the Reds earlier in the year. But it was very early in the season, during the "dying days" of Bryan Price's tenure, in fact. After starting the year 3-18, the Reds have been better than .500 for interim skipper Jim Riggleman. They're actually 7-2-1 their previous 10 series! Despite not getting a lot of offense, they were able to take two of three from the Cardinals in the last series, including a 7-3 win yday. Their only loss in the series was their own extra inning affair on Tuesday. They hand the baseball to Tyler Mahle tonight and while he's off rough B2B outings, I feel he's likely to bounce back here. The Phillies are near the bottom of the league in terms of runs scored on the road and at a bit of a disadvantage never having faced Mahle, a rookie. Mahle leads all NL rookies in wins, starts and innings pitched this year as well as strikeouts (101). 

Philly will counter w/ a rookie of its own in this spot, one making his big league debut. This will actually be the fourth consecutive game that the Reds are facing a rookie pitcher and for three of the four, it's been their big league debut! Tonight it's Ranger Suarez, who not that long ago was pitching down in Double-A. Yes, the Reds have struggled to hit against this recent rash of rookie pitching they've faced, but I have to wonder if this spot might prove to be "too big" for Suarez. He made only three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have experienced a lot of good fortune in 2018, but not tonight. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros' 8-2 win last night might be a tad bit misleading in the sense that it required an extra inning, but note that they also led 2-0 for much of the game before exploding for six runs in the 10th frame. Colorado was able to tie things in the 7th w/ a two-run rally, temporarily scaring me (I had Houston), but it's hard not to be confident in a team that's 31 games above .500 and outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 194 runs. If anything, a win such as last night's was overdue for the 'Stros considering that run differential indicates they've actually UNDERperformed (in terms of wins and losses) this season. Thus, I'll come right back w/ them again as the Rockies AREN'T as good as their WL record and the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field are rather conducive to the Astros having success. 

Houston averages a MLB-best 5.7 rpg on the road. No other team can even touch their +2.6 per game run differential on the road. Thus, it was a little odd to see them held scoreless from the second through the ninth inning last night in the most hitter-friendly park of all-time. But then came the six-run explosion in the 10th and that was all she wrote. Now they were facing perhaps the best pitcher on the Colorado staff, Tyler Anderson. Tonight, they'll be up against Jon Gray. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Gray still has a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, making him a good fade against this Astros' offense. It has certainly been an interesting season for Gray, who was the team's Opening Day starter, but was also sent down to Triple-A at one point (due to struggling w/ his mechanics). His last start, which was quite good, was his first back from a two-week stint "down on the farm." But he was recalled mainly out of neccessity (Rockies' rotation is currently short-handed) and I wouldn't be optimistic about him in this spot. 

Houston will go w/ Charlie Morton, who hasn't been all that sharp of late, but still has a 2.96 ERA for the season. He also has 37 strikeouts in his last four starts, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. He's dropped only two decisions all year and the team has won five of his last seven starts overall. He has experience pitching at Coors Field. Earlier, I mentioned that Colorado has been an overachiever and that's based on the fact they've been outscored this year despite a record that's six games over .500. They actually have a losing record at Coors where they (not shockingly) allow more runs per game than any other team at home in all of baseball (5.8 rpg). As I said in yday's analysis, this is quite the ideal matchup for the reigning WS Champs. 8* Houston

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians came out of the All-Star Break swinging for the fences as they scored 27 runs in two games against the Texas Rangers. But they failed to sweep that series, getting shutout on Sunday. They suffered another shutout on Tuesday and then were beaten again by the Pirates last night (9-4), so now it's them looking to avoid the sweep. This team is far too potent to be swept at home from where I sit as they average 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team in all of baseball scores a higher average at home. Pittsburgh was a team that I thought appeared destined to sink to the bottom of the NL Central at one point, but instead it's been quite the opposite as they enter this game on an inexplicable 11-game win streak. That comes to an end today, however. 

Not only do the Indians typically "bring the offense" here at home, they also have (arguably) their most reliable starter on the bump this afternoon. That would be the enigmatic Trevor Bauer, an All-Star who ranks second in the American League in innings pitched (140 1/3), third in strikeouts (182), fifth in ERA (2.50) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.7) as well as 10th in opponents batting average (.218). Recently, he's been able to maintain those numbers/rankings (2.84 ERA, 12.3 K's per nine innings L3 starts), yet has nothing to show for it as he's received three straight no decisions. Now, last time out, Bauer wasn't that sharp as he gave up four runs (tied for season-high) in his shortest start of the season (4 IP). But the main reason why Bauer's TSR is "only" 12-9 has been lack of run support. That changed in that last start (Indians won 9-8 over Texas) and I'm predicting he'll get the requisite amount of help today as well. 

Though Bauer has faced the Bucs only one time in his career (in 2015), he has fared quite well in Interleague Play, particularly this season. He's 9-5 w/ a 2.66 ERA vs. the NL all-time, including a 2-0 mark w/ a 0.44 ERA in '18. He threw eight shutout innings against the Reds in this ballpark back on 7.10, allowing only three hits and finishing w/ 12 K's. Pittsburgh, who is still only 4-13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, will turn to Jameson Taillon today. Like Bauer, Taillon has probably pitched better than his (11-9) TSR indicates. But he hasn't been as good as Bauer, generally speaking, although his last two starts were both great. Taillon does have a 6.75 ERA in IL Play this season though. The last time a Pirates team won this many games in a row was 1996 when they still finished 73-89. I think the current streak will prove to be just as random as I don't rule out a similar finish this year. The last two days aside, Cleveland is the much better team here. 8* Cleveland

10* LA Dodgers (12:35 ET): Talk about a short turnaround. After 16 long innings, these teams finally wrapped things up at 1:14 AM local time w/ the Phillies prevailing 7-4 on a walk-off HR. That was a really tough loss for Dodger Blue, who led 4-1 entering the 7th frame. With heavy bullpen attrition, they were forced to give the baseball to an outfielder (Kike Hernandez) in the 16th last night and he gave up the GW home run. Overall, the teams combined to use 18 different pitchers in the contest. There's going to be a heavy burden on today's starting pitchers and I'll side w/ LA, who is still the better team in my eyes. They won 7-6 on Monday, dealing the Phillies a rare one-run defeat (Philly is 20-9 in such games this year). That record in one-run games has artificially propped up the Phils' overall WL record as has their now 7-3 mark in extra innings. I still lean on the fact the Dodgers have outscored opponents by 89 runs this season while the Phillies are at "just" +23.

Both of this afternoon's starting pitchers have had a lot of success of late. In fact, both enter this game w/ 4-0 TSR's over their last four starts, respectively. That said, Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta has gotten to face Miami and San Diego his L2 outings and was quite lucky not to lose against the latter, his last time out. Arrieta gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 IP, but his offense bailed him out in what ended up being an 11-5 Phillies' win. Back on May 29th, Arrieta did throw seven shutout innings against the Dodgers. However, since then, he's been quity shaky, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.417 WHIP. Twice in the last seven starts, he has not gotten out of the fourth inning. Given the state of the bullpen after last night, that's a really big deal. Arrieta's strikeout totals have been relatively low all season, which indicates a lack of dominance as well. 

The Dodgers will go w/ Walker Buehler here. He has a 0.994 WHIP in 10 starts this season and has allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. Last time out, he did surrender a pair of solo home runs, but the Dodgers still were able to beat the Angels, 3-2. Last night's loss was just the Dodgers' sixth here in the month of July. They have not dropped B2B games since the end of June and are 30-15 overall since the start of last month. I do believe the respective YTD run differentials "mean something" and that something is that LA is the significantly better team here. They take today's rubber match. 10* LA Dodgers 

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels dropped the series opener to the White Sox last night, 5-3, as they've reached a bit of a "crossroad." They're now a game below .500 and 10.5 gms back of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. It will obviously require a pretty substantial run for them to make the playoffs. That all being said, I think that they're poised for an easy win Tuesday night. Fading the White Sox off a win is always a good idea (they're 11-23 in the role this season) as is playing against them on the road (16-35). The Southsiders' die was cast long ago for 2018 and they're simply not a good team. The last time they beat the same oponent in consecutive days was late June. Since starting the year 2-0 (at Kansas City's expense), they've done it only five times all season! 

The Angels had the lead early last night, but starter Jaime Barria simply could not hold it. I expect a stronger effort tonight from Felix Pena, who has looked quite good in his five starts thus far. Pena has yet to lose a decision or allow more than three earned runs. Here, he faces an offense that generally is not very good (4.0 rpg). Granted, his ERA is much lower on the road, but w/ the White Sox visiting that's not that big of an issue. Priced in the +125 to +175 range on the road, the Sox are 4-12 this season. They're 22-55 the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Angels have generally handled their business as a larger home favorite (-175 or higher), going 7-1. Last night aside, it's the top teams in the American League that have given them trouble, not the bottom-feeders.

Chicago also gives up 5.8 rpg as the road team. Only Miami is worse in that regard. Tuesday's starter Carlos Rodon is off his strongest effort of the season as he threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings against St. Louis all the way back on 7.11. But I wouldn't be too confident in the follow-up as plenty of time has elapsed since then. It was also just the second time in seven starts that the White Sox won w/ Rodon on the mound. Betting against a bad team on the road, off a win, just seems pretty logical to me. 8* LA Angels

10* Houston (8:40 ET): To me, there's no question that the Astros are the best team in baseball right now. That distinction is confirmed by a MLB-best +188 run differential and the reality of the matter is they've played even BETTER than their 66-36 record indicates. One of the most impressive components of the 'Stros season thus far has been their play away from home where they have a 34-15 WL record. They average a MLB-best 5.7 rpg in those games, so just imagine what they'll be capable of here, playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. Even w/o a DH (NL rules), I expect plenty of runs on the board tonight and w/ Gerritt Cole pitching, this looks like an extremely low price on the defending WS Champs. 

Cole enters this game w/ a 16-4 team start record, 2.52 ERA and 0.982 WHIP. He's been one of the key cogs in a pitching staff that is clearly MLB's best. Not only do the Astros score more than any other team on the road, they also give up the fewest (3.1). The result is a per game run differential of +2.6, which is nothing short of jaw-dropping. Cole has yet to allow more than four runs in any of his 20 starts this year, which could be tested here, but also is likely to be offset by his own offense's production. In his last start before the All-Star Break, Cole held the Tigers to one run and three hits in an easy 9-1 win. Having had Monday off, Houston has had plenty of time to "stew over" a 14-5 loss to the Angels on Sunday (which denied them a sweep). That was the most runs they gave up to any opponent all season. The only other time they allowed 10+ runs, they came back and won the following game. 

Like Houston, Colorado failed to finish off a three-game sweep on Sunday. In the Rockies' case, a 6-1 loss to the D'backs ended a season-best seven-game run. The team has certainly played well of late, but my view is they're still quite overrated, at least in terms of WL record. Despite being 53-46, they've actually been outscored this season. No team gives up a higher number of runs per game at home, so that works against them. They'll look to counter Cole w/ Tyler Anderson, who has definitely pitched well of late, but this may very well end up being his toughest assignment of the season. Even w/ the recent win streak, the Rockies are still only .500 at home for the season, including 3-7 when Anderson toes the rubber. 10* Houston

6* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): It was a somewhat improbable fifth straight loss to the Rays for the Yankees last night as they fell as huge favorites on the ML (closed as high as -290 at some shops!) w/ Luis Severino on the mound. (Severino entered the game w/ an 18-2 TSR). This losing streak to the Rays actually dates back to last month and includes a sweep that took place right here at Tropicana Field. The home team has now won all but one of the 10 times these AL East teams have met this season. But that trend should be broken tonight as I'll call for the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge. Tampa Bay has again been rather "coy" w/ its starting pitching situation, but we "know" what we're gonna get from Masahiro Tanaka and it should be enough for the victory. 

Seven pitchers worked for the Rays in last night's 7-6 win. That puts quite the onus on tonight's starter, rookie Yonny Chirinos, who has been out of the rotation since April. Some of that was injury (to his forearm), but he also wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire on rehab assignment down in Triple-A Durham. In eight starts there, he posted a 5.28 ERA, so there was no real rush to get him back to the big leagues. Blake Snell was originally set to start this game for the Rays, so that's a big break for the Yankees, who should have tied last night's game in the top of the ninth were it not for a lack of hustle from Gary Sanchez on the final out. Chirinos' last three starts at the big league level hardly went well as he posted an 8.02 ERA and 1.945 WHIP.

The Yankees are 23-10 off a loss this season. That alone provides ammunition to call for a bounce back, but w/ Tanaka on the hill, the feeling becomes even stronger. Unbeaten in 10 road starts this season (5-0) and in his last 11 starts overall, Tanaka has a far better WHIP than ERA, which is notable. Generally speaking, he does not allow many baserunners. Last time out, he held Cleveland to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. He was 6-0 in his career vs. TB prior to stumbling against them LY. This will be the 1st time facing them in '18, which is a bit of a surprise given how often the teams have met. The bottom line is that I just can't see the Yankees losing as big favorites B2B days. 6* NY Yankees 

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Pirates won their 10th in a row last night, albeit in "abbreviated fashion" as the game was called after six innings (rain). But make no mistake about it, they really "took it to" Cleveland, winning 7-0 as huge (+245 ML underdogs). Just as surprising as them beating up on Corey Kluber (scored four runs against him) was the fact the Indians were shut out. This is a team that averages 5.9 rpg here at Progressive Field. No team scores more runs per game in their home park. I expect the Tribe to bounce back tonight though, behind Shane Bieber, as hopefully Mother Nature will not be as big a factor. 

I've got to say that this 10-game win streak has certainly come out of "nowhere" for Pittsburgh. Prior to it beginning, the team appeared to be sinking in the early part of July. They're now three games above .500, but I don't see this as a legit playoff contender as there's no ace in the rotation or even an All-Star in the everyday lineup. The bullpen, while 44-1 when leading after seven innings, doesn't exactly have a spectacular ERA or WHIP either. They are a very random 11-2 in Interleague Play following yday's win, but I wouldn't read too much into that. After all, the AL Central (outside of Cleveland) is very weak and that's who they've been beating up to this point. The other four teams in the division are all sub-.500 teams. I put more stock in the Pirates' 3-13 record as ML road dogs of +125 to +175 than I do the IL record. 

Last night's starting pitching matchup looked to be lopsided in favor of the Indians, but instead produced a shocking result. I don't see lightning striking twice however as the Bucs' Joe Musgrove was fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out after giving up five runs. It was the third time in the last five starts he allowed that many runners to score. For Cleveland, Bieber has been admittedly a little shaky himself over the L3 starts, but still has a 6-1 TSR. The Indians' offense has been quite schizophrenic recently as they scored 19 runs on Saturday, but have since been shutout each of the last two days. But remember what I wrote earlier about them leading all of MLB in runs per game at home. I look for the offense to bounce back big-time tonight and Bieber to take care of the rest. The Indians' one real albatross in the first half was the bullpen, but that group was solidified w/ a big trade during the Break. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (8:05 ET): Oakland was a 10* winner for me Saturday and Sunday, but truthfully they were a little fortunate to win both those games (against the Giants). Good fortune has typically gone this team's way of late as they are now 17-8 in one-run games, which partly explains them getting to 14 games over .500 w/ a fairly mediocre +22 run differential. Getting back to the weekend, they beat the Giants in the final at-bat each of the last two days (in extra innings, no less). Now, they did have early leads in both games, only to have to then rally. I just see their run of good luck ending tonight in the Arlington heat against Cole Hamels. The A's have lost their last three games at Globe Life Park (dating back to April), including a pair here last month. 

"We're two games into the (second half) and it feels like we've played 20 in a row," Oakland manager Bob Melvin said prior to Sunday's game and that was BEFORE they needed 10 innings to dispose of the Giants. Somebody (by rule!) is going to get that second Wild Card in the American League and while I don't know who it'll end up being, I'm pretty sure they'll end up as a sacrificial lamb to either the Red Sox or Yankees. The A's have to be feeling like it's "their year" as they've now gone 23-7 the L30 games. They also just added Jeruys Familia (at a relatively low cost) to a bullpen that is already 39-0 when leading after seven innings (best such record in all of MLB). But the last two games had to have taken a lot out of them and I wouldn't be so confident in starter Brett Anderson, who somehow has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.608 WHIP. For the season, Anderson has a 6.09 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in six starts. 

Hamels may soon be leaving Texas for a contending team, meaning there's a good shot this could be his last start in front of the Rangers' fans. It's not been a typical Hamels season in 2018, but I feel he's still more than capable of putting together a strong second half. He's faced Oakland twice this year, splitting the pair while posting a 2.38 ERA and 16-5 KW ratio. The Rangers shut Cleveland out yday, 5-0, for their 1st win since the Break. Oakland is surprisingly just 15-26 vs. the rest of the AL West and I feel this spot greatly favors the home team. 10* Texas

Play still valid despite pitching change. See below.

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Truthfully, neither of these teams is any good. However, last night's rainout is our gain as it puts the Mets in perhaps the most favorable spot they'll be in the rest of the way. Because of Sunday's game being postponed, Jacob deGrom's start has been bumped back a day to face a far weaker opponent than had he been forced to go up against the Yankees last night. The Mets ending up w/ the day off is a huge advantage facing a Padres team that just had to play two in Philadelphia yday (split the pair). There has been a pitching change here for the Padres, but it's immaterial as the now starting Joey Lucchesi is no better than the originally scheduled Eric Lauer. 

The Mets are just 29-55 since opening the season 11-1 for first year manager Mickey Callaway. They've sunk to the bottom of the NL East, but it should be pointed out their run differential is significantly "better" than that of the Marlins, so I expect them to move up a spot in the division before all is said and done. It's mostly when deGrom starts that the Mets become "backable" as he has a 1.68 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Despite those numbers ranking 1st and 2nd respectively in the entire NL, the Mets somehow have managed to go just 8-11 in his 19 starts this year. Incredibly, there have been seven different occasions this year when deGrom has allowed 1 or 0 ER over 7+ innings and NOT gotten the win. But again, facing the Padres instead of the Yankees is the kind of a lucky break any starter would beg for. deGrom is 3-1 w/ a 1.53 ERA in five career starts vs. SD.

While the Mets are somewhat of a dumpster fire, the Padres are even worse as they own the Senior Circuit's worst overall record right now. They were shutout in the second game yday, getting held to just two hits, as their offense continues to be one of the weakest in the game today. They rank 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. They get no relief from the starting pitching here either as Lauer enters this game w/ a 2-6 TSR and 1.785 WHIP on the road this season. The team has dropped 13 of 17 here in June and the Game 1 victory yday snapped a six-game slide. With a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP at home this season, don't we think that deGrom is deserving of far better than a 4-6 TSR here? I do! 8* NY Mets

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Though they get to stay at home (where they're 32-17 this season), this is a tough situation for the Phillies as they just played a doubleheader yday (split w/ SD). In come the Dodgers, who are red hot and represent a major step up in class. Dodger Blue just won for the sixth time in eight games Sunday, beating up on the Brewers (in Milwaukee) by a score of 11-2. They're now 39-18 overall going back to May 17th and have started to seize control of the NL West. Though technically a battle of division leaders (Phillies up on the Braves by one game in the East), LA has proven itself to be the far more potent team in my eyes as they have a run differential of +91, which is second best on the entire Senior Circuit, trailing only the Cubs. Meanwhile, despite having a near identical record (to LA), Philly's run differential is just +21 as they've been artifically "propped up" by a 20-8 record in close games. The 49-49 Nationals actually have a better YTD run diff! 

Few would have expected Zach Eflin to be a major player in the Phillies' rotation this season, but here we are in July and that's definitely been the case. He enters Monday w/ a 7-2 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 12 starts (8-4 TSR). He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in nine of those starts. But he missed his last scheduled start before the Break (due to a blister) and it will be interesting to see how he performs here. The last time Eflin did pitch was 7.9 vs. the Mets and he allowed three runs in five innings, snapping a six-game win streak. What we do know is that he did NOT perform well against this Dodgers' lineup back on 5.30 as he gave up five runs and seven hits in just four innings of work. That was obviously before the Dodgers bolstered their lineup w/ Manny Machado. Eflin has surrendered a total of SEVEN home runs to the Dodgers in 14 innings against them, all-time. 

As I just alluded to, this Dodgers' lineup is now far more potent than it was two months ago. That's thanks to the addition of Machado, whose presence is being felt up and down the batting order. He's 5 for 13 since coming over from Baltimore while Matt Kemp is 6 of 13, including a pair of HR's in yday's rout of the Brew Crew. The Dodgers, who have homered seven times in the last six games, will turn to Ross Stripling (an All-Star) on the mound today and he beat Elfin back on 5.30 thanks to allowing just one run on four hits in 7 IP. Stripling has now allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 of his last 13 outings and just threw six scoreless innings in his last start before the Break. As reflected in the line, the Dodgers are the superior side here. 8* LA Dodgers 

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Following a dramatic win last night (in 11 innings), I feel the A's are poised to beat the Giants again on Sunday. The A's were my *10* Game of the Week last night as they won for a 22nd time in the last 28 games. This club looks to be a legit contender for the 2nd AL Wild Card spot (we KNEW Seattle would come back to the pack) and the front office certainly appeared to "double down" on 2018 by going out and acquiring closer Jeurys Familia from the Mets yesterday (didn't even have to give up all that much). Meanwhile, the Bay Area rival Giants continue to look a tad bit overrated as they've been outscored this season (-23 run differential) despite owning a winning record. The last series between these teams (earlier in the month) saw the Giants take the opener, only for the A's to come back and win the next two. Same thing this time around.

Sunday starter Sean Manaea has shown himself to be a very key cog in this A's rotation. He has a 0.995 WHIP in 20 starts this year, so he probably "deserves" better than a 12-8 TSR. (At home, that WHIP is even better). Manaea's last start also came against these Giants and he held them to just two runs on five hits in six innings. The A's won that game pretty easily, 6-2, and I see little reason why history wouldn't repeat itself here. Manaea has now allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts. Though the Giants do (theoretically) benefit from having a DH in the lineup here, they're only 20-30 on the road this season and a pretty weak hitting lineup overall (3.5 rpg on the road). 

San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the mound this afternoon and while has some nice numbers, it's still a relatively limited sample size due to time spent on the disabled list. Since coming off the DL, he hasn't really been the same either. He's allowed eight runs and 16 hits in 10 innings and given up four home runs. Remember that American League rules for this game work both ways as Cueto must also deal w/ a lineup that has the DH. Oakland has done quite well for itself in Interleague Play this season, going 10-4 overall. They're also 26-14 in day games. Losing an 11-inning game can be really tough on a team, especially when there's a quick turnaround such as this. Thus, I look for the A's to beat up on an emotionally spent Giants team today. 10* Oakland

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): These long-time rivals have already played four games this weekend, including a doubleheader yday. They were not only even yesterday (Cubs won Game 1), but have split the four games. That means somebody will win the series today and my money is on the Cubs, who have surged into 1st place in the NL Central and are clearly the division's best team. St. Louis fired manager Mike Matheny shortly before the All-Star Break in what seems like a desperate attempt to get things going. The bottom line is that the Cards are little more than an average ballclub. The Cubs, on the other hand, have the NL's best run differential as they are the first team in the Senior Circuit to reach 500 runs scored this year. They'll take the series. 

Both Sunday starters come in sporting identical 3-0 team start records over their last three starts respectively. For the Cubs, it's Jose Quintana getting the baseball and he has a 2.81 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis. Not only that, he threw six scoreless innings of three-hit ball his last time out. That ended up being a 2-0 win at San Francisco and it was the seventh time in his last eight starts that he gave up three earned runs or less. The team has gone 12-6 in his 18 starts this year, not to mention they're 25-15 off a loss. The Cubs have been a strong home team as well, going 31-18 at Wrigley. I think Quintana is poised to do just fine here against a St. Louis offense that was held to two hits in yesterday's opener and just five runs total before "busting loose" in the ninth inning of the nightcap. 

The Cards' Miles Mikolas has very similar numbers to Quintana and did come out on the winning end of a previous battle, all the way back on May 4th. That was in St. Louis though when he tossed seven scoreless innings (did allow 7 hits). Neither pitcher is posting a lot of strikeouts lately, so - for me - what this comes down to is a superior offense from the home team. St. Louis is outside the top 10 in all key categories while the Cubs are no lower than seventh in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. In fact, they are tops in all of MLB in OBP (.348) as well as 2nd in BA (.267). They're the better team and this is a great price on them at home. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Royals are on the verge of doing something almost unprecedented for their very forgettable 2018 season. That would be win three consecutive games. They've done it only one other time all season, that coming back in late May when they took two from the Cardinals and then beat the Rangers. Never have they swept a series. They have a chance to do just that on Sunday, hosting Minnesota, as they've won by scores of 6-5 and 4-2 the L2 days. But I'll now step in and bet against the sweep from happening as there's just no sugarcoating how bad this team truly is. At 29-68 overall, they've been outscored by a mind-blowing 190 runs. They're only 13-35 at home! Minnesota has its own "warts," but should have enough pride to want to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep. 

The Twins have actually outhit the Royals in both games so far in the series, but have still trailed most of the way. Today, I expect them to get off to a fast start against former Rule 5 pick Brad Keller, who - like his team - has enjoyed little to no success in '18. He's 1-3 in eight starts (2-6 TSR), including 0-2 his L3 (0-3 TSR) w/ a 5.87 ERA and 1.825 WHIP. Curiously, he has yet to allow a single home run. Yet that hasn't stopped him from giving up plenty of runs anyway. Last time out, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings while giving up five runs to the White Sox. That came on the heels of allowing four runs in 4 2/3 innings to Boston the start before that. His KW ratio in those two starts is a horrible 3-9. Something else to consider is that not only have the Royals not swept a series all year, this is the first time they've won B2B games since the end of May (also against the Twins)! 

Minnesota will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, hardly an inspiring starter himself, but ever if there was a time to get off the proverbial schnide, it would be here. Before allowing six runs (five earned) in his most recent start, Odorizzi actually had been pitching relatively well, allowing just two runs total his previous three starts (which spanned 17 IP). He has not faced KC yet this year. But he knows the team well having previously pitched for the Royals. One positive is that Odorizzi does have more strikeouts than innings pitched. The Royals are just 13-26 in day games this season and I just can't see the Twins being swept here. 8* Minnesota

10* Oakland (9:05 ET): Madison Bumgarner & the Giants might be tempting at an underdog price, but I'll side w/ Trevor Cahill and the Athletics here in this battle for Bay supremacy. The Giants did win last night, 5-1, but you may recall they also took the series opener from the A's last week as well, only to drop the next two games. It was Bumgarner that started that prior win (I remember b/c I had him!), but he was also up against a far less capable pitcher. Taken as a whole, San Francisco should be viewed as an overachiever given their winning record (51-48) in spite of a -22 run differential. Oakland could be viewed through a somewhat similar prism as their 55 wins and +20 run differential don't exactly "add up," however, the way I see it is someone HAS to challenge Seattle for that second Wild Card spot in the AL and it might as well be these guys! 

Something curious about Oakland is that their number of runs per game scored go way down here at home. Only division mate Houston averages a higher number of runs per game on the road and as a result the A's are 31-21 in those games. They're only 24-22 here at the O.co Coliseum, but one player in particular that doesn't mind toeing the rubber here happens to be tonight's starter, Cahill. He has a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in four home starts this season, numbers that are obviously quite ridiculous. His last time starting here, he threw eight shutout innings (w/ six strikeouts and zero walks) in a very hard-luck (1-0) decision to to the Rays. Still, that was the third home start Cahill didn't allow a single run. He's allowed just two (both to Seattle on 5.22) total in 28 IP. Something else I like about the A's here is their 9-4 record in Interleague Play.

While they (theoretically) do benefit from the addition of a DH to the lineup this weekend, the Giants still average just 3.5 rpg on the road and shouldn't give Cahill much trouble here, IMO. One would have to go all the way back to the 1st of the month to find the last instance of them scoring 5+ runs in B2B games against the same opponent. They're just 20-29 in road games, including 0-3 in those started by Bumgarner and that's not a case of "hard luck" at all as MadBum has a 4.67 ERA/1.50 WHIP in those three outings. Even after the quality effort last week, his career ERA against the A's is still only 4.62 (six starts). Unlike Tampa Bay (who I lost w/ last night), Oakland seems serious about making a postseason run, so I'll go w/ them tonight in a bounce back spot where they're very likely to get a quality start. 10* Oakland

8* Houston (7:15 ET): Justin Verlander has a legit claim to being the best pitcher in all of baseball this year and the Astros (in my view) are clearly the best team. So, it's downright shocking that the reigning World Series champs are only 12-9 in Verlander starts this season. Considering he's third in the American League in ERA (2.29), 1st in WHIP (0.84), 2nd in IP (137 2/3) and 4th in strikeouts (172), that team start record makes little sense to me and it seems quite logical that there will be a lot more wins moving forward. The Angels are an opponent that Verlander has absolutely feasted on since becoming as Astro as he's a perfect 4-0 against them in the L12 months, having allowed just 2 ER and 11 hits in 31 IP. I believe he'll easily lead his team to victory Saturday night.

Houston cruised to victory last night in the season opener, 3-1, sending the Angels to an even .500 for the year (49-49). Not since opening the season w/ a loss have the Halos been below the proverbial "Mendoza line." But the Astros aren't an opponent that will give them any breaks. The champs are an incredible 33-14 on the road w/ 5.7 rpg scored. They are easily MLB's best road team this year and are also 22-10 in day games (remember this is a West Coast game, so it will be starting in the afternoon). Angels' hitters had virtually no answer for Dallas Keuchel last night as they didn't get their first hit of the game until the seventh innings and finished w/ only two total. Given some of the season-long struggles at the plate (average only 4.0 rpg at home), it's difficult to imagine them "figuring things out" when facing a pitcher the caliber of Verlander. 

Now I should point out that Verlander is actually winless over his L6 starts, a stretch which dates back to 6.14. But that only serves to make me want to endorse him MORE given the numbers discussed above. Plus, there's the history of dominating this particular opponent. Despite giving up 4 HR's in his last start, Verlander did have 12 K's in his 6 IP. Further aiding his cause here is the fact he's up against the struggling Nick Tropeano, who has a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. Yet, his team has actually won twice during that time! But win is something Tropeano has yet to do at home this season (in 5 starts) as he's struggled moreso here than on the road. The Angels are simply not good when stepping up in class (14-27 vs. .500 or better teams TY) and just 7-20 the L27 times they've been priced as a home dog of +125 to +175 on the ML. 8* Houston

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians made headlines on the final day of the All-Star Break, completing a blockbuster deal that looks to totally revamp their beleagured bullpen. Considering their 'pen had the worst ERA in all of MLB in the 1st half, it was a necessary move to bring in Brad Hand, no matter the price. Granted, it will be a breeze earning another AL Central pennant, but there's a lot of ground to make up to compete w/ the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. The Tribe's first opponent after the break, Texas, is one that they should dominate regardless of the bullpen situation. In fact, they may not even need to call upon new arms to finish the Rangers off on Friday. Not considering the way starter Trevor Bauer (an All-Star) has pitched this season. I look for Cleveland to roll here. 

I played Bauer in his most recent start, which ended up being a 5-2 win over the Yankees. Taken from that analysis, "Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. Over the L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no?" 

True to form, Bauer shut down the Yankee bats on Sunday, limiting them to two runs in seven innings. It should be a lot easier against the Rangers, especially starting opposite Martin Perez, who has some truly unsightly numbers this season (7.67 ERA, 2.046 WHIP). He has a 10.00 ERA in two home starts. Texas typically gives up a lot of runs (5.7 per game at home), so scoring should not be a problem for Cleveland here and Bauer takes care of the rest. Perez has pitched only one time since April, that being last Saturday. While that last start went well, it was against sorry Baltimore and the Rangers still lost (1-0!). I wouldn't count on Perez pitching that well again here. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): About two months ago was a critical turning point in the Rays' season. Manager Kevin Cash, faced with an injury-riddled rotation and middling record, decided to roll the dice and start employing "openers" (as he calls them), meaning a reliever to start the game. But, generally asked to go no longer than two innings, these "openers" are no traditional starters. As "wacky" as the experiment seemed at the time, it has paid shocking dividends. Tampa Bay entered the All-Star Break w/ the lowest team ERA in all of MLB since the change was made. They also have gotten themselves into Wild Card contention and I see no reason (other than the front office trading away key talent) why this club can't make it three playoff teams out of the AL East. The Rays couldn't have asked for a much easier opponent to start the second half and should roll Friday. 

Of course, the Rays have some quality "traditional" starters as well. One is Nathan Eovaldi, though you wouldn't know that by simply looking at his team start record. Eovaldi has a 3-6 TSR despite a 0.980 WHIP. While he is coming off his worst start of the season (allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 IP vs. Minnesota on 7.13), I'm confident in him bouncing back given the bulk of the resume. His previous three starts had seen him allow just two runs (on 10 hits) in 19 IP. It also helps to be pitching at home where the Rays are 26-17 and outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. So far, Eovaldi has gotten to pitch at home just twice and his last time here saw him hold another NL East foe (Washington) scoreless over six innings of one hit ball. The Marlins present an ideal matchup for Eovaldi considering their lousy offensive numbers (26th in runs, 28th in slugging). They are his former team, so expect an inspired start. 

The Marlins did surprisingly take two of three from the Rays last month, but that was in Miami. You can look to find these Fish "swimming" at the bottom of the National League the rest of the way as they've been outscored by a Senior Circuit worst 115 runs. Honestly, them having even 41 wins at this point of the season should be considered fortunate. They've been outscored by nearly two full runs per game on the road this season and no team allows more runs per game away from home (and here they'll have to deal w/ a DH). Starting here is Dan Straily, who has pitched well of late, but still owns a 4.29 ERA & 1.346 WHIP for the season. The team has won just two of his previous nine outings. It was a win when they faced Eovaldi last month, but in extra innings, as Eovaldi held them to just two runs. Tampa is simply the much better team here, especially at home. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Mets/Yankees (7:05 ET): In the last installment of the "Subway Series," the Yankees essentially exerted their dominance in taking two of three from the Mets and did so in relatively low-scoring fashion. Such is life in a National League park. None of the three games at Citi Field saw more than seven total runs scored and the Under cashed every time. (The Yankees' lone loss in the series actually saw them get shutout). While I pretty much expect the team wearing pinstripes to roll again this weekend, I also believe we'll see a lot more scoring this time around. We're at Yankee Stadium, which not only means the use of the DH, but also a Yankees' offense that averages 5.6 rpg at home. Even the Mets' anemic offense should do SOMETHING tonight! Take the Over. 

At first glance, the return of Noah Syndergaard to the Mets' rotation brings out reason to rejoice as the team got the win in his first start back, beating Washington 4-2. But a closer inspection of the box score reveals Syndergaard was a bit lucky to give up just one run as he also allowed seven hits in 5 IP. His KW ratio (3-2) wasn't good either. This will be as challenging a start as he faces all season and while he brings in a 2.97 ERA, note the rather pedestrian WHIP of 1.22. His L3 starts have all gone Under, as have six of the last seven, which has a lot to do w/ a bad Mets' offense as much as anything. Nevertheless, I expect Syndergaard to give up far more runs than we're accustomed to seeing him allow here. 

The Mets started 11-1, but are just 28-54 since. The Yankees' season has been quite the opposite as they've gone 53-24 since a 9-9 start and lost only three of their previous 26 series. They're playing better than .650 ball at the moment, but unfortunately for them, so too is rival Boston (.694!). Certainly, we can expect the Yanks to make the postseason, but don't be suprised if tonight's starter (Domingo German) isn't part of the rotation when they get there. German has a 5.97 ERA after allowing 6 ER in his last start before the Break, the fourth time this season he's given up that many (in just 12 starts). He's made it past the sixth inning just once in his last seven starts. With the Yankees doing most of the heavy lifting and German likely to allow some runs as well, expect a slugfest Friday night. 10* Over Mets/Yankees

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): I'm no huge fan of the Rockies, but I'm even more skeptical of a Mariners team that has somehow managed to go 58-38 in the first half despite not actually outscoring their opponents! That "somehow" is a totally unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (plus, let's throw in the fact they are also 8-0 in extra innings!). Seattle is lucky in that they'll head into the ASB w/ a pretty significant lead for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. But I expect this team to be a BIG-time regressor in the second half and, in fact, we've already started to see some of that as they've dropped six of their last eight games overall. That includes the first two of this three-game set at Coors Field where the Rockies have suddenly turned it around, winning 6 of 7.

Overall, Colorado has won five straight series, all against teams w/ .500 or better records. They're still fighting for relevancy in the NL West where they currently in third place behind the Dodgers & D'backs. Truthfully, I do not believe this to be a playoff team (they were LY) as they too (like Seattle) have a negative run differential for the year. But there's no denying they are a hot team right now (won 9 of 11) and they also will send a hot starter to the mound Sunday in the form of Tyler Anderson, who has allowed all of one run in his L3 starts (22 IP). Anderson has a 0.41 ERA and 0.727 WHIP during that time as he's allowed a ridiculously low nine hits. The last two starts have occurred here at home and remember he'll be facing a "weakened" Seattle lineup here, one that's w/o the usual DH spot in the order (National League park).

After scoring seven times in Friday's opener (but they still lost), the M's were held to just one run last night. That won't cut it regardless of the circumstance, but given the way Sunday starter Mike Leake has pitched of late, they could be in some real trouble here. Leake, whose 13-6 TSR is somewhat misleading, has a 6.00 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his L3 outings. He gave up seven runs on 11 hits - in just four innings - his last time out and had only one strikeout. It was his second straight start going only four innings (both against the Angels). I mentioned the likely regression earlier, but Seattle is now assured of dropping three straight series for the 1st time all season. They are just 1-4 vs. Colorado this year and I believe this overachieving ballclub continues to come back "down to Earth" on this final day before the Break. 8* Colorado