10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I’m banking on a strong Mets debut from Carlos Carrasco here. Acquired on January 7th from Cleveland (as part of the Francisco Lindor trade), Carrasco has yet to pitch at the big-league level in 2021 after tearing his hamstring in Spring Training. He’s made three rehab starts, though those only lasted a total of 6 ⅔ innings. Keep in mind that Carrasco was expected to be the Mets #2 starter this year (behind Jacob deGrom). He’s 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime vs. Cincinnati, a team that is not nearly as strong at the plate on the road as they are at home. I like the Mets big here. 

Despite multiple injuries to its starting rotation, deGrom and Carrasco chief among them, the Mets have led the NL East for the last 83 days and are allowing only 2.7 runs per game at home this year. Visiting teams have hit just .202 at Citi Field. With Carrasco set to return and Rich Hill acquired in a trade yesterday, the Mets’ rotation should continue to excel down the stretch. As I alluded to above, the Reds only average 4.3 rpg on the road, which is a full run less than what they score at home. They did just have a productive series at Wrigley Field, scoring five or more runs in all four games. But it’ll be a big change here as they face a much better Mets’ pitching staff. 

The Mets did lose 6-3 to the Braves yesterday. However, that was a game where they had 12 hits and should have scored more. They went 1 for 8 with RISP. I expect better hitting tonight against Sonny Gray, who was tagged for eight runs his last time out and now has a 9.00 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his L3 starts. The Reds’ bullpen also remains a big question mark. Therefore, I’m calling for an end to a couple of streaks today - the Reds’ three-game win streak and Joey Votto’s six-game streak with a home run. 10* NY Mets

10* Over Orioles/Tigers (7:05 ET): We’ve got two “also-rans” from the American League beginning a four-game series tonight in the Motor City. The hosts are coming off a somewhat insane 17-14 win in Minnesota yesterday afternoon, a score you’d expect from Lions-Vikings, not Tigers-Twins. All three games in that series went Over with yesterday obviously being the highest scoring of the bunch. (The first two games saw the teams exchange 6-5 victories). The Tigers are now 9-4 since the All-Star Break.

Baltimore is in last place in the AL East and that is where they’ll be for the rest of the year. Their 2021 fate was sealed pretty early in the season. The Orioles are 30 games below .500 and have been outscored by 133 runs, but like the Tigers they are coming off a win here as they defeated Miami 8-7 on Wednesday. That matched the O’s highest scoring effort of the second half. They scored three times over the final two innings and are now actually 4-1 the L5 games overall. 

The thing to watch today is how long Tigers’ starter Casey Mize is asked to go. The team had been restricting his innings, but skipper AJ Hinch made a mistake by letting him come out for the fifth in his last outing. After tossing four shutout innings, Mize then allowed four runs in the fifth. Regardless of how long he goes tonight, we know that Detroit’s bullpen (5.04 ERA) isn’t good. Neither is Baltimore pitching. Alexander Wells will be making just his second career big league start in this one after allowing a pair of home runs in his debut. Runs should be plentiful tonight. 10* Over Orioles/Tigers

10* Over Rockies/Angels (9:38 ET): Throughout their history, the Rockies have been defined by an extreme home vs. road dichotomy. Playing their home games in the thin air of Denver, it’s rather easy to understand. But this year, things have been taken to the extreme as they are 11-37 in road games. They average just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field while batting a collective .209. But this series with the Angels figured to be different. Not only is it an AL park where they can benefit from the use of a designated hitter, but the Halos surrender 5.1 runs here at home. I’m on the Over in this one. 

They scored just two runs on Monday, but last night saw the Rockies “bust loose” for 12 in a rare win away from home. They had 16 hits. Tonight they’ll face Andrew Heaney, who is 13-3 Over in all starts for the Angels this season. While Heaney pitched well in Minnesota last Thursday, that was after he went 1-4 with an 8.79 ERA his previous five starts.

On the flip side, the Angels average 5.5 rpg at home, which is one of the highest averages in baseball. So they should do better at the plate than they did last night. It helps to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Over is 10-3 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts and there have been four times where he allowed 6+ runs. He “only” allowed four his last time out, but that was in just five innings and the game ended up being 9-6 when it was all said and done (Rockies won). Including both games of this series, the Over is 12-2-2 the L16 times the Halos have been favored in Interleague play. 10* Over Rockies/Angels

10* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle HAS to be the luckiest team of all-time. Or at least in recent memory. They are certainly the luckiest team in all of MLB in 2021 as they’ve managed to go 55-46 despite having a -49 run differential. Their win expectancy - based on said run differential - is only 45. The 10-game difference between their actual and expected number of wins is by far the largest of any team this year. Key to them overachieving is a somewhat preposterous 23-8 record in one-run games (had three of those in the last series) and a 9-1 record in extra innings. But what happened last night may have been the most preposterous thing yet! 

Last night’s game saw Houston score six times in the top of the first and take a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the fourth. That’s when things changed dramatically as Seattle put together B2B three-run innings. It was still 8-7 in favor of the Astros heading into the bottom of the eighth, which is when “disaster struck” (I was on the Astros, in case you couldn’t tell) as Dylan Moore hit a grand slam to give the home team a win. It was the third straight day the Mariners came from behind to win. Two of those have come in the final time up to bat.

I’m aware that the M’s have a 13-5 record with Tuesday starter Chris Flexen on the bump. But they are facing my #1 rated team in the American League, who has outscored its opponents by 141 runs this year. The AL West race should not be close and it’s a sham that Seattle is even in Wild Card contention. The Astros will counter Flexen with Lance McCullers Jr, who has allowed three runs or less in all but one of his 16 starts this season. McCullers has a lower ERA and WHIP compared to Flexen, despite having a worse record. The 11-run effort yesterday is not in any way indicative of the Mariners’ offense. At home, they are hitting just .205 and have a .281 OBP, both MLB worsts. Houston is MLB’s highest scoring team on the road and overall. They are on a 29-8 run vs Seattle. I am a BIG believer in the Astros tonight. 10* Houston

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Oakland hasn’t been hitting the ball well of late (.222 BA L7 games) and now faces the disadvantage of heading to a NL park where they won’t be able to use a DH. Even worse is that the NL park they head to is Petco Park where the host Padres are very stingy, giving up only 3.6 runs per game. The A’s just dropped three straight one-run decisions over the weekend (to Seattle), really tightening up the Wild Card race in the AL. San Diego has a much more comfortable lead in the NL WC race (six games) and despite being third in their own division, I have them as a Top 5 team in all of MLB. 

The Padres are just 5-4 since the All-Star Break, however all of those games were played on the road. A 9-3 loss at Miami on Sunday marked the 1st time since the Break that they lost by more than one run. Now they finally get to return home where their 33 wins are the most among NL clubs. They are also 8-1 in Interleague Play this season. Chris Paddack will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener. Save for one bad effort vs Washington on July 7th, Paddack has been impressive in 2021. Especially his last time out when he shut the Braves out over five innings and gave up just three hits and no walks. 

Oakland will give the baseball to James Kaprielian, who also didn’t allow a run in his last start. But that was at home. The road has been less kind to Kaprielian so far as his ERA is 4.00 compared to 1.13 at home. Very early in the season, the A’s put together a 13-game win streak. Take that away and they would have a below .500 record.  San Diego has been much more consistent this year and has a big-time edge getting this series at home. The A’s are 20-42 L62 IL road games vs. teams with a winning record. The Padres have won nine straight over teams that have winning records. 8* San Diego

7* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle is a team I flat out do not believe in. At 54-46, they are just 1.5 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race. But this is a team that’s been outscored by 52 runs this season. That’s a comparable differential to the Tigers, who are just 47-54 on the year! In fact, with a run differential of -52, the Mariners’ win expectancy is 44! The 10-game gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball (no other team has outperformed expectations by more than four wins!). They are 23-8 in one-run games, including three straight wins by that exact margin. Ridiculous! 

Houston, who leads the AL West, is a team I very much believe in. I’ve got the Astros rated as the #1 team in the American League right now and #2 overall in MLB (Dodgers are #1). They’ve got the record to back it up at 61-39 and I see them coasting to a division title. The weekend saw the ‘Stros sweep a three-game series against the last place Rangers and they’ve won five of six overall. I’m not concerned about them hitting the road as they average 5.6 runs per game away from home, which is #1 in MLB. Seattle is averaging only 3.8 rpg at home while batting a paltry .203. The M’s are 30th in team batting average and OBP. 

Darren McCaughen, a rookie, will be making his first career big league start today for the Mariners. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, which is the only reason he’s being called upon in this spot. It’s a very tough spot facing the #1 offensive team in baseball. Luis Garcia, facing the worst ranked offense in baseball, should do well in this start for Houston. Garcia shut Cleveland out for six innings in his most recent start, which lasted six innings. There have been only two times in 16 starts where Garcia has allowed more than 3 ER. I like the Astros big here. 7* Houston

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cincinnati missed out on a chance to sweep St. Louis again as they lost 10-6 on Sunday. Now they are set to face another divisional foe that they previously swept, that being the Cubs. It was Fourth of July weekend that the Reds won three one-run games over the Cubs at Great American Ballpark (2-1, 3-2 and 3-2). For the Cubs, that was part of an awful 11-game win streak that essentially took them out of the race in the NL Central. They’ve played better recently though and now get the Reds at Wrigley where they’re a strong 30-18 on the season. I expect the Cubs to gain a measure of revenge today.

The Over was a winner for me yesterday when the Reds hosted the Cardinals. That ended up being a 10-6 loss for Cincy as they fell victim to a seven-run inning (4th) and never really recovered. Pitching has been an issue for this team all season and ultimately will be the reason this club does NOT make the postseason. The only National League team to have allowed more runs than the Reds is Arizona and everyone knows how bad the D’backs are. 

Wade Miley will start Monday’s game for Cincy. He’s been their best starter as he tossed a no-hitter back on May 7th and has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. But he was fortunate to allow only two runs the last time he faced the Cubs as he also gave up 10 hits. Miley’s career ERA at Wrigley is 4.88. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs. He’s 12-4 this year and has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his L13 starts, going at least six innings every time out. With Hendricks, the Cubs have the edge on the mound in this series opener. The Reds have dropped six of nine since the All-Star Break - all at home. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Cardinals/Reds (1:10 ET): Cincinnati can make it seven in a row over St. Louis with a win on Sunday. They’ve captured the first two games of this series by scores of 6-5 and 5-3. This comes on the heels of winning all four games at Busch Stadium last month. The results of the L2 days have to be terribly disappointing for a Cardinals team that had won five of six going into this series, which had them back over .500. Cincy may have the “momentum,” but I feel the “safest” bet for Sunday’s finale - due to the pitching matchup and how most Reds’ home games have gone this season - is to take the Over.

Reds’ home games have averaged 11.0 runs this season. That’s the most for any team - even more than Colorado at Coors Field and Toronto (who has played at Spring Training/minor league facilities). It’s a combination of a strong offense (5.4 rpg) and shaky pitching (5.6 rpg allowed). The Reds got a better than expected start from Luis Castillo on Saturday, but I do NOT expect that to be the case today with Sonny Gray. He was really roughed up by St. Louis back on April 23rd when he gave up five runs on six hits. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings. It’s not like that was some aberration either. Last time out, Gray again gave up five runs on six hits (this time in 4 ⅔ innings) to Milwaukee. 

The Cardinals aren’t in much better shape on the mound this afternoon as they’ll send out Johan Oviedo, who has a horrifying 0-10 team start record vs the NL Central in his career. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky either as his ERA in those 10 starts is 5.21. He’s averaged less than five innings per start as well. Oviedo is also winless this year (against everybody!) with an 0-5 record in 12 starts. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.973 WHIP on the road. Neither bullpen is all that good either. 10* Over Cardinals/Reds

8* Boston (1:10 ET): While the Red Sox may not necessarily be the best team in the AL East (Tampa Bay is), I remain far more skeptical of the Yankees being able to stay in this race due to a YTD run differential that is far inferior to the other three teams they are competing against. Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto are all +67 or better in that department. The Yankees are just +6. While they did pull off a thrilling comeback on Saturday, all four runs scored by the Yanks came in the eighth inning. The Red Sox are still 9-3 against them this season and won the first two games of the series. I think they will win this series. 

It certainly appeared that Boston was well on its way to a fifth straight victory when they took a 3-0 lead into the top of the 8th yesterday. But it was not to be. Martin Perez will start on Sunday, hoping to avoid a second straight loss to the Yanks and third straight loss overall. He took the loss last Sunday at Yankees Stadium after giving up three runs in four innings. But there was a stretch this season when Boston went 8-2 in Perez's starts. That was before the B2B losses. It was during that stretch that Perez led the team to a 5-3 win over the Yankees. All three runs that he allowed were unearned in that one. 

The Yankees will go with Domingo German, who has a 4.58 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. Boston. German has not lasted longer than 4 ⅓ innings in any of his last five starts. One would have to go all the way back to May 20th to find the last time he went a full six innings. German took the “L” opposite Perez in the aforementioned 5-3 game from last month. The Yankees are a weak offensive club while Boston is #3 in MLB in runs scored. Throw in the respective run differentials and the fact the Red Sox have owned the season series and a bounce back from Saturday looks rather certain. 8* Boston

9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team. 

But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times. 

Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Under White Sox/Brewers (7:10 ET): This should be a good old fashioned “pitchers duel” on Saturday as we’ve got Carlos Rodon set to face Corbin Burnes. Rodon comes in sporting an 8-3 record (11-5 TSR) with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Burnes is 5-4 (8-8 TSR), but that record completely undersells just how well he has pitched in 2021 as he has a 2.06 ERA and 0.886 WHIP. Lately, Burnes has been on the top of his game by allowing just three runs in his L4 starts, which have spanned 27 ⅓ innings. Last time out, he threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts, a game the Brew Crew won 8-0. 

The White Sox average 5.3 runs per game on the road, but in this series they must deal with the same disadvantage that every AL team faces when they hit the road in Interleague Play -- no designated hitter in the lineup. Without the DH, they were held to just one run in last night’s series opener and it didn’t come until the eighth inning. They never sent more than five men to the plate in any inning. Four times they were three up, three down. It’s difficult to envision them doing much tonight against a starting pitcher that has an incredible 140-16 KW rate on the season. 

Milwaukee is not a great offensive team by any stretch. They are actually dead last among NL teams in batting average. At home, that average dips to .218. The seven runs they scored last night is a little misleading as they had one big six-run inning (thanks to a grand slam). Just like Burnes, Rodon is coming off an exemplary performance. He tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball on Sunday, with 10 strikeouts, and that was against the Astros (#1 team in rpg!). It was the 12th time (in 16 starts) this season that Rodon allowed 1 ER or less. He is on a streak of 10 straight starts with 8+ strikeouts, which is a club record. 10* Under White Sox/Brewers

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This is a revenge game for the Royals, who were swept here at home by Detroit last month. The Tigers come into this series playing their best ball of the season as they are 7-0 since the All-Star Break. But they are still four games below .500. That’s a lot better than where the Royals are at (16 games below .500), but - despite what happened last month - I remain skeptical of the Tigers’ ability to get the job done on the road, where they are 19-29 this season (and 55-102 the L3 seasons!) It’s telling that KC is the money line favorite for this series opener. 

The Royals do come into this game on a two-game win streak. Those wins came in Milwaukee as +170 and +140 underdogs, which is impressive. The Brewers are the first place team in the NL Central and top five in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. So the fact KC was able to score 11 times in two games certainly deserves a “tip of the cap.” The Tigers give up 5.5 rpg on the road and the entirety of their current seven-game win streak has come at home. The last time they hit the road, they were swept in Minnesota. 

A nice edge for the Royals coming into today’s game is that they had Thursday off. They are 9-5 this season when playing with a day off. Meanwhile, the Tigers had to hold off the Rangers in a game where they got seven runs on just seven hits. I realize today’s starting pitching matchup seems to favor Detroit, but the Royals are 4-0 at home this season when Kris Bubic starts. The Tigers aren’t a great team by any means and thus this win streak of theirs is due to end sooner rather than later. Tonight sounds about right. 8* Kansas City

8* Under Blue Jays/Mets (7:10 ET): Toronto is a team that ought to have a better record. They’ve outscored opponents by 83 runs this season, which is the top differential in the AL East. Yet here they sit at just 48-44 on the year and are in fourth place. The second half started well enough as they swept Texas, including a pair of shutouts in a doubleheader on Sunday (1st time they’d done that in franchise history). But their residency in Buffalo ended poorly as they were beaten twice by Boston this week, 13-4 and 7-4. Now they are set to take on another first place team, that being the Mets.

Like Toronto, the Mets were idle yesterday. They are coming off a 7-0 shutout of the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Mets’ lead in the NL East is currently at four games over both Philadelphia & Atlanta. What I find most intriguing about handicapping this ballclub is that they are #2 in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. But they have also scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. On average, no team’s games are lower scoring than are the Mets (7.7 rpg). Tonight they are facing an American League club forced to play without the DH. So another low-scoring game would seem to be in the cards. 

The Blue Jays have thrived in Interleague Play this season, going 13-2. That’s the best such record in all of baseball. They’re allowing just 3.6 rpg vs. NL foes. Steven Matz will be the starter on Friday and he’s coming off five shutout innings vs. Texas last weekend. But of course, Toronto’s scoring goes way down when they hit the road and now they don’t even have a DH. Mets’ starter Tylor Megill also didn’t allow a run in his most recent start (went six innings) and visiting teams here at Citi Field are hitting only .190 for the year and scoring 2.5 rpg. Take the Under in this one. 8* Under Blue Jays/Mets

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr (out for the rest of the season), Atlanta is not throwing in the towel in the NL East. Winners of this division each of the last three seasons, the Braves have the division’s best run differential (+30) and sit just four games back of the first place Mets. They are tied with the Phillies, who they just beat 7-2 on Thursday. Clearly, the deciding factor in last night’s game was a Darby Swanson grand slam in the third inning. The teams actually finished with the same number of hits (7). The Phillies have now lost three in a row after starting July on a 10-4 run. 

I expect the Phils to bounce back on Friday though, mainly because they’ll have Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has easily been the team’s most consistent starter in 2021 w/ a 2.43 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. Now he has allowed a total of 11 runs in his last two starts. But prior to that, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 15 of 17 starts. Wheeler has allowed only 4 HR’s over the previous three months, so the Acuna-less Braves offense won’t be having nearly the same success they did yesterday. For the season, Atlanta averages only 4.0 runs per game on the road compared to 5.3 at home. 

Over the last three games, Philly is a hideous 5 of 32 with RISP. That’s got to improve. Even with the loss y’day, the team is still 27-18 at home this season. They are one of ten teams with a win percentage of .600 or better at home. The hitting should get back on track today against Max Fried, who is not having the same kind of season Wheeler is. Fried’s first start after the All Star Break was impressive (seven shutout innings), but that was at home. On the road, he has a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. The Phillies have had only one losing streak of more than three games all season (it was four) and that was in mid-May. 10* Philadelphia

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): If you’re a regular client, then you know that Seattle is a team I just do not believe in. While only 3.5 games off the pace for the Wild Card in the American League, the Mariners’ 51-45 WL record is really as phony as it gets. They’ve been outscored by 52 runs this season, which would give them a “win expectancy” of 42. The nine-game difference between actual and “expected” wins is - by far - the largest in all of MLB right now. They’ve been propped up not only by a 20-8 record in one-run games, but a 9-1 record in extra innings. I believe this team is going to regress badly over the next couple months. 

The situation for Oakland here is good. They had Wednesday off. Seattle did not as they wrapped up a two-game series in Colorado with a 6-3 loss. The A’s have won their L2 games, both against the Angels. It was a 6-0 win on Tuesday, good news because they are 5-1 this season coming off a shutout win. Today they hand the ball to Sean Manaea, who threw a CG shutout here in Seattle back on June 2nd (allowed just four hits). Manaea has a 12-7 TSR this year and 3.20 ERA on the road. 

The Mariners are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They are dead last in team batting average and OBP plus 28th in OPS. At home, their BA drops to .203! How they have managed to go 29-20 at home with that kind of average is mind-boggling. I know today’s starter Chris Flexen has pitched pretty well at home this year, but he did not fare well here against the A’s back on June 2nd (same game Manaea tossed the CG shutout) as he allowed five runs. Oakland is 12-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 and I really like them in this matchup. 10* Oakland

8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Indians +1.5. They have revenge for a prior three-game sweep, which was in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Since being swept in Tropicana Field, things have gotten better with the Tribe winning six of nine including a sweep of the Royals in their lone home series. They also beat the Astros yesterday 5-4. Two of the Indians’ last three losses have been by one run. I really like the RL in this series opener. 

The Rays, who have also won six of their last nine games, can usually count on solid starting pitching. But I don’t believe that will be the case here tonight as they send Luis Patino to the bump. Patino will be making just his fifth start of 2021 here and second since May. He was recalled from Triple-A Durham despite giving up seven runs in his last start here in the big leagues. That was 7/2 vs. Toronto, a game the Rays lost 11-1. It should be noted they were also close to losing yesterday (at home vs. Baltimore) before a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. They were down to their last out. 

So you’ve got a situation where both teams are coming off one-run victories (same exact score too!). Tampa Bay has been in 27 one-run games this year while Cleveland has been in 28. The only other AL team with more one-run decisions this year is Oakland (30). Cal Quantrill led a one-run win (3-2) for the Indians in his last start as he gave up only one run in five innings. It was his second consecutive victory. The Rays have lost four in a row as road favorites and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Cleveland

8* Under Rangers/Tigers (1:10 ET): Suffice to say, we can probably count on the Rangers not scoring many runs Thursday afternoon. This team is in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped all six of its games since the All-Star Break and eight straight overall. The last three losses have come here in Detroit where the Tigers have won six in a row since the break. Five of those six wins have seen the Tigers allow two runs or less. That includes all three games in this series. Meanwhile, Texas has scored only six runs in its last seven games. I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense either, so Under is the obvious call here. 

The Under has cashed in nearly 62% of Tigers’ home games this season. They held the Rangers to just five hits last night in what was a 4-2 victory. Believe it or not, that was their NINTH straight game with six or fewer hits. This team just can’t hit. They’ve fallen to 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 28th in slugging and 29th in OPS. I can’t sell Tyler Alexander, the Tigers’ starter for Thursday, as being anything special. But right now, the Rangers are seemingly a great matchup for ANY starting pitcher. 

The key here is Mike Foltynewicz giving SOMETHING resembling a decent start for Texas. It has been a dreadful season for Foltynewicz and his last start was a low-point. But he’d been fairly decent in his four previous starts. Three of them were quality, meaning he made it at least six innings while also allowing 3 ER or less. The key will be limiting home runs, which admittedly has been a problem. All four of Detroit’s runs yesterday came off home runs. But I think Foltynewicz will surprise and keep the ball in the park. 8* Under Rangers/Tigers

7* Toronto (7:07 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate yesterday as the Red Sox and Blue Jays were rained out. That game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on August 7th -- in Toronto. In case you hadn’t heard, the Jays have been cleared to return “North of the Border.” Because of COVID-19 restrictions, they haven’t played a game at Rogers Centre since 2019. Tonight is the final game in Buffalo and the Jays could really use a win seeing as they trail Boston by seven games in the AL East and lost to them 13-4 on Monday. 

Toronto has been forced to play its “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and here in Buffalo this season. Scoring runs - in either of these two parks - has generally not been an issue for them. In fact, they lead all of MLB in runs per game at home with 5.9! I think they’re going to produce here against Garrett Richards, who was originally slated to start yday’s game. Richards has a 5.40 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Blue Jays this season. He also has a 7.10 ERA and 2.052 WHIP his L7 starts overall. 

Boston reshuffled its lineup for the season opener and that certainly worked as they scored eight runs in the first inning en route to a huge win. But today they face Robbie Ray, who has been one of Toronto’s most consistent starters. Ray has a 2.93 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in all starts this season and those numbers are even better over his L7 trips to the mound. Ray beat Boston (at Fenway Park) last month, holding them to three runs in six innings. He struck out 10. The Jays wound up winning that game 18-4! 7* Toronto

10* Over Marlins/Nationals (7:05 ET): This series has gone poorly for the last place Marlins. They lost 18-1 on Monday. Things weren’t nearly as rough last night, but they still lost 6-3. The Fish are now 15 games below .500 (40-55), though they have a reasonable YTD run differential (-4). They are 5.5 games back of the Nats, who have now won three in a row after suffering through a six-game losing streak that straddled the All-Star Break. The Over is 10-2 their last 12 games, including 5-0 the L5 and this one should go Over as well. 

The pitching matchup looks pretty dreadful here. Starting for Miami will be Jordan Holloway. He’s made only three starts, but they haven’t gone well nor have they lasted very long. Holloway has gone a total of 9 ⅔ innings in those three starts and has allowed 11 runs. Starting here for Washington will be Erick Fedde. He’s been beat up pretty good in three of his last four starts. The most recent was the worst of the bunch as Fedde was charged with six runs after going just 1 ⅓ IP. 

That last Fedde start was the infamous 24-8 loss to San Diego. Earlier, I mentioned the six-game losing streak for the Nats. There were three times during that streak that they allowed 10+ runs. Now they’ve scored 32 of their own in the L3 games. Miami hasn’t done much scoring at all during a current five-game losing streak, but is probably “due” here. Holloway is only starting because Sandy Alcantara was placed on the bereavement list. The respective offenses should rule the day here. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals

8* Over Mets/Reds (12:35 ET): Yesterday was the first time since the All-Star Break that Cincinnati won. They did so by beating the Mets 4-3. That was definitely a departure from the previous four games in which they were outscored 41-21. They got a strong effort from starter Wade Miley, who gave up just one run in 6 ⅓ innings. But Miley obviously won’t be pitching against today. Instead, the Reds will send Jeff Hoffman to the mound. Eight of his nine starts have gone Over and he has a 2.033 WHIP in the L3.

The Mets had scored 29 runs in the three games previous to last night’s loss, including a 15-11 win here in the series opener. The Mets’ record since the Break is just 2-3 as they dropped two of three in Pittsburgh and have split two games here. This is far from the National League’s best offensive team, but they should get to Hoffman, who has control issues and often doesn’t last very long. The Reds’ bullpen is also very bad, especially at home where its ERA is 6.09 and blown half its save opportunities. 

Totals in this series have been high as they should be. Reds’ games, on average, are among the highest scoring in the league. They average 5.5 rpg themselves while also giving up 5.6. Mets’ games aren’t typically that high scoring, but it’s notable the number of runs per game they allow on the road jumps up to 5.0. Wednesday starter Marcus Stroman hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his last five starts. The Mets’ bullpen, similar to Cincinnati’s, isn’t very good. They have a 5.04 ERA on the road. You saw the 15-11 score from Monday and while this game may not be nearly as high-scoring, it will go Over. 8* Over Mets/Reds

10* Under Royals/Brewers (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Throw in the fact that it’s an all-lefty starting pitching matchup for Tuesday and I think all signs point to this being a pretty low-scoring matchup. Take the Under.

The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals.  They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. Today they’ll face Eric Lauer, who has a 0.98 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts. It should be a long day at the plate for the road team as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road to begin with. They have not homered in 10 days. 

But it should be pointed out that even though they started the second half by scoring 26 runs in a three-game sweep of the Reds, Milwaukee is not a great hitting team. They are dead last in the NL with a .223 batting average. The fact they are 6th in runs scored is surprising given that average. They had some real “cluster luck” against the Reds with five different innings of 3+ runs. I realize Mike Minor’s numbers haven’t been great for Kansas City, but here he’s facing a team that hits just .216 in its home park! 10* Under Royals/Brewers

8* Milwaukee (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Tuesday’s  pitching matchup isn’t exactly what I’d call “favorable” for the Royals, in fact it’s quite the opposite as Eric Lauer (0.98 ERA, 1.091 WHIP L3 starts) opposes Mike Minor (9.00, 1.667 L3 starts). No need to overthink this one. Go with the home team. 

The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals.  They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. They’ve dropped six of the last seven and the second half began with them losing two of three - at home - to lowly Baltimore. On the road, this team has been outscored by 1.7 rpg this season. 

The Brew Crew started the 2nd half with a three-game sweep of the Reds. While I have some reservations about the offense (.223 BA is the lowest in the NL), this is a team with great pitching. Lauer is coming off three straight quality starts where he’s allowed a combined two runs on 10 hits. The Royals have lost Minor’s last four starts with him allowing 24 runs on 30 hits. Minor has allowed at least four runs in all four starts. I see the home team winning a low-scoring game today. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a big series in the NL West. The Dodgers would pull even with the Giants for first place with a win tonight and that’s exactly what I think is going to transpire. Los Angeles comes in as the #1 rated team in my own personal power ratings as they have outscored the opposition by a MLB-best 154 runs this season. The Giants have been a nice surprise - and certainly should be commended for having the best overall record in MLB. But does anyone really think they are as good as the Dodgers (or even the Padres?). 

The Dodgers are 6-3 vs. the Giants this season. Though they did lose Sunday, LA did win the first two games of that series with Colorado. That loss yesterday saw closer Kenley Jansen blow a save in the bottom of the ninth. Had he done his job, the team would be on a five-game win streak. Tony Gonsolin will start tonight. Though he’s yet to factor into a single decision, the team is 5-1 in his six starts and he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in the last three. He’s yet to allow more than a single run in any start (though none have gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings). 

Kevin Gausman will start here for SF. He has the 2nd lowest ERA in the majors right now, but is just 1-3 in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Winning at Chavez Ravine is not easy if you’re the road team. The Dodgers are +2.0 rpg when playing host, which has led to a 30-14 record. The Giants lost each of the last two days, scoring only two runs in the process. That simply won’t get it done on the road against the Dodgers, no matter who the Giants have starting. 10* LA Dodgers

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): The Angels have revenge as they were swept here in Oakland last month. Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch in any of those three games, but will start tonight. Following a busy All-Star Break, Ohtani was predictably fatigued as his team began the second half of the season by dropping two of three at home to the Mariners. But he did homer on Sunday. Oakland also lost two of three over the weekend at home (to Cleveland) as their grip on second place in the AL West is loosening. I expect the Angels, led by Ohtani, to take this series opener. 

Ohtani has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. He did have the rough one at Yankees Stadium, but that was an aberration. In his first start before the ASB, he held Boston to two runs in seven innings as the Angels got the win there, 8-5. While he did lose here in Oakland back on May 28th, Ohtani allowed only three runs in six innings. The A’s have scored only four runs in the past two games, so I definitely expect Ohtani to pitch well tonight. 

Oakland was very nearly swept by Cleveland over the weekend. They won on Friday via a two-run walkoff. But as mentioned above, the offense didn’t produce much after that. They had just four hits yesterday. The A’s are only 28-24 at home and outside of one big win streak early in the year have basically been a .500 team overall. Cole Irvin has lost just once in his last seven starts, but has a 6.17 ERA the two times he’s faced the Angels. The A’s have lost six of their last seven series openers. 10* LA Angels

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:08 ET): It took them eight tries, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox last night. That YTD head to head record of 1-7 is in stark contrast to the previous two seasons when the Yanks were 23-6 against their hated rivals. An important note about last night’s game. Rain was a major factor and the game was actually called after six innings. So the fact the final score was 3-1 was a little misleading. Expect a lot more runs to be scored tonight and for this one to go Over the total. 

Boston won’t have to worry about Gerritt Cole again tonight. Cole pitched the entirety of the game for the Yankees last night and had 11 strikeouts. It’s an obvious downgrade on the mound tonight when the Yankees will start Jameson Taillon. The Over is 11-5 in all Taillon starts this season including 3-0 the L3. He hasn’t necessarily given up that many runs of late, but he has allowed five home runs in those last three outings. When Taillon faced Boston earlier in the year, it wound up being a 7-3 loss.

Martin Perez will start for the Red Sox. Like Taillon, he served up two home runs in his most recent outing. That ended up being an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. He has a 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees have had their issues scoring this season, but managed three runs in 3 ⅔ innings when they faced Perez back on June 25th. I realize that only four total runs have been scored each of the last two days, but Boston averages more than that per game by themselves and this game won’t be halted after six innings like last night. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

10* LA Angels (4:07 ET): Back on Friday, I said that I’d be looking to fade Seattle pretty regularly in the second half of the season. Reason being they have completely overachieved. While I was wrong to fade them on Friday, the Mariners are now 49-44 with a -54 YTD run differential after taking a 9-4 loss on Saturday. With that run differential, the M’s have an expected win total of 40. The gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball this season. They are going to regress and I’ll call for them to lose again Sunday. 

The win yesterday puts the Angels a game above .500. They have a -22 run differential, which isn’t great, but it’s certainly better than the Mariners. The Angels were able to jump out to an early 5-0 lead last night and never looked back. They did so against Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle’s only All-Star, so I think they are certainly capable of putting up a “crooked number” against Logan Gilbert today. The Mariners are 8-0 in Gilbert’s last eight starts, but the right-hander has gone a full six innings only three times all year. This will also be the Angels’ second crack at him.

Patrick Sandoval will toe the rubber for the home team on Sunday. He threw a career seven innings in his final start before the All-Star Break, against Seattle, and allowed only two runs. Unfortunately, the Angels still lost the game 2-0. But look for a better result here as the team is putting up 5.5 runs per game at home. Sandoval has actually yet to allow more than three runs in any start this season. Seattle continues to be one of the worst offensive teams as they are last in team batting average, last in OBP and last in OPS. 10* LA Angels

8* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s started the 2nd half in thrilling fashion, beating the Indians in the final at-bat last night. A Jed Lowrie 2-run walkoff HR ended it as the team improved to 53-40 on the year. They have a fairly comfortable lead in the race for Wild Card (3.5 games) and are now 5.5 games up on Cleveland. The Indians are really not a team you want to be betting on right now as they’ve lost 10 of 13, the only wins coming in a three-game sweep of Kansas City at home. Injuries are a real concern for the Tribe. 

So I expect the A’s to win again Saturday, probably a lot more comfortably this time. They send out Frankie Montas, who has a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts. He had 10 strikeouts his last time out, a 6 ⅔ inning effort where he allowed just one run on five hits. Montas has now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. Cleveland doesn’t hit particularly well (.221 on the road) and they are second to last in all of baseball in on base percentage. So this should be another strong effort from Montas. 

I do not expect a strong effort from Indians starter Cal Quantrill. He has a 6.27 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in eight starts. The three (starts) that have come on the road have not gone well. He has a 9.29 ERA in those. The team is 0-3 in those three road starts. With yesterday’s loss, the Indians are just 3-13 the L16 games vs. Oakland. They are also 0-6 L6 road games overall. 8* Oakland

8* LA Angels (9:37 ET): Seattle is a team I plan on fading quite regularly in the second half of the season. I know they finished the first half up 18.1 units. Only San Francisco was a more profitable team to bet on. But at 48-43 on the season, the Mariners have drastically overachieved. That won-loss record may not sound all that great, but consider for a moment that the M’s have actually been outscored this season by 50 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have a record of 40-51. That eight game gap between actual and expected wins is - by far - the largest in all of baseball. 

The Angels are 45-44, two games behind Seattle in the AL West, but do have a slightly better YTD run differential (-26). They also have two of the best players in all of baseball - Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The latter has been hurt most of the year, but the former has dazzled - both at the plate and on the mound. It is interesting that Seattle had just one All-Star (Yusei Kikuchi) and he wasn’t even able to pitch Tuesday because of COVID-19 concerns. Meanwhile, the Mariners offense finished the first half dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and OBP. They are also 29th in OPS.

These teams just met right before the ASB with Seattle taking two of three at home. Friday’s starter Chris Flexen won one of those games for the Mariners by tossing seven shutout innings. However, the road has been less kind to Flexen as he has a 6.97 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. The Angels come in averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season. So I expect enough support for Andrew Heaney, who did not pitch in the last series. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last seven starts. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Rays/Braves (7:20 ET): Here it’s an American League team coming up to bat in a National League park, so that means no DH for Tampa Bay. Now they do a pretty good job at scoring runs away from home (5.3 per game). But the vast majority of those have come with the DH in the lineup. While Atlanta averages that same number at home and there’s no DH, expect that number to start coming down in the second half. Remember that they have lost Ronald Acuna Jr to a season-ending ACL injury. I like both starting pitchers in this matchup, so Under is the call.

The Braves were busy during the All-Star Break, acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs in exchange for a minor league prospect. But there’s no replacing Acuna, who led the team in batting average, home runs and OBP. Unfortunately for Atlanta, their “pain” is Tampa Bay’s “gain” here, specifically for Rays starter Michael Wacha. In his last two starts, Wacha has been great as he’s surrendered just one run in 11 IP. He’s also given up just five hits.

The Rays come into the second half trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East, though I think they’re the better team. They usually do well in Interleague games, however here they are up against Charlie Morton, who is 8-3 in his 18 starts this season and boasts a 0.927 WHIP in the last three. Last time out, Morton tossed seven shutout innings of two hit ball. That was the third time in his last five starts that Morton went at least 7 IP and did not allow a single run. In five career starts vs. TB, he has a 3.23 ERA. 10* Under Rays/Braves

10* Run Line LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. They absolutely humiliated Arizona last night, winning 22-1. So the Dodgers will go into the ASB with MLB’s top run differential (+139) while the D’backs will have the worst RD (-147). LA is 8-1 vs. Arizona this season, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. I obviously cannot see the D’backs beating the Dodgers twice in three days. Given what happened yday, a multi-run win for the home team seems pretty plausible. 

The Dodgers tied franchise records for most home runs (8) and runs scored in a game yesterday. Justin Turner and Mookie Betts both hit grand slams. Believe it or not, all the scoring came in four innings. It was 9-0 after two innings. Yesterday may have been an extreme, but the Dodgers are out-scoring opponents by two full runs per game at home this year. Arizona is getting outscored by 2.1 rpg on the road.

One of the stranger things you’ll find is that the D’backs are 4-0 the L4 times that Merrill Kelly has started. This is a team that has lost 52 of its last 63 games overall! Unless Kelly has some “magic power,” I’d say that he is due for a loss. Before the 4-0 run, the team was 0-8 in Kelly starts in May and June. Tony Gonsolin starts opposite Kelly and has a 1.96 ERA in five starts this year. He’s yet to factor in a decision and now seems like a great time for his first win. Lay the -1.5. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): These teams have now played five times this season. All five games have gone Under. It was a 5-3 Giants win on Friday, The previous series, which took place in D.C., was REALLY low-scoring. Three of the games ended in shutouts and none saw more than five total runs scored. Armed with that knowledge, I’ll look for the Nationals & Giants to go Under again Saturday afternoon. Only the Mets allow a fewer number of runs per game than do the Giants. 

Anthony DeSclafani has NEVER posted double digit wins in a single season. He could achieve it for the first time here, before we even hit the All-Star Break. His last three starts have all gone Under with him posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. He did allow three solo home runs against the Dodgers on 6/28. But other than that, he’s been pretty spotless. He was one out away from a complete game in his last start. In 16 of his 17 starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed 3 ER or less. You can count on him here. 

The Nationals had a four-game Over streak end yesterday. Now Saturday starter Jon Lester has his own four-game Over streak coming into this game. It’s been a rough stretch, but Lester also had a five-start stretch from late May through mid-June when he allowed 2 ER or less every time out. Three of the runs he was charged with last time out were unearned. In six regular season starts vs. the Giants, Lester is 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA. Look for the Under trend with these teams to continue. 10* Under Nationals/Giants

8* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Angels have won six of seven, scoring 6.1 rpg and hitting nearly .300 as a team. Most of those games came at home, however. Now they hit the road where their scoring average drops to 4.3 rpg for the year. They head to Seattle to face a Mariners team that is no offensive powerhouse in its own right. The Mariners have been unable to top four runs in any of their last five games (did win yday) and are hitting a paltry .203 at home for the season! Take the Under here. 

Overall, Seattle is dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and on base percentage. They are 29th (next to last) in OPS. I’ve been through this before, but it is a miracle that they are four games above .500 on the season, given their run differential (which is now -50). I look for LA starter Alex Cobb, who has a 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts, to pitch well tonight. 

Marco Gonzales, who did not look good against Texas last weekend, will start this game for the M’s. I faded Gonzales in that spot last week as he was coming off a stint on the paternity list. With a start under his belt, he should pitch better here. He has certainly pitched well in the past vs. the Angels, going 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Seattle is only allowing 4.0 rpg at home this season with visiting teams batting just .219. 8* Under Angels/Mariners

8* Over Reds/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee seemed to be at a disadvantage going into yday’s series opener with the Reds as they had just played a doubleheader the previous day (split with the Mets). But they were able to prevail 5-3, thus partly getting revenge for a sweep they suffered at the hands of Cincinnati last month here at home. The Brew Crew lead the NL Central right now with a seven-game lead over the second place Reds. My view is that tonight’s game is likely to be higher scoring than yesterday. Take the Over. 

Scoring runs has not been an issue for the Reds in 2021. In fact, they are 2nd in the NL in runs scored, only trailing the Dodgers.They’d been better at run suppression lately, but the troubled bullpen (5.28 ERA) could not hold the lead last night. Wade Miley gets the start Friday. While he allowed only two runs his last time out, he did give up 10 hits. That one went Under, but his previous six starts had all gone Over the total. The Over is 10-5 in all Miley starts this season. 

Eric Lauer is off B2B quality starts for Milwaukee. But the last time he faced the Reds, Lauer gave up four runs in five innings and Milwaukee lost 10-2. Four of his last five starts have gone Over the total. Things didn’t go any better for Lauer when he faced the Reds last August as he gave up six runs in three innings. Both of these starters are lefties. The Reds are 7-2 Over L9 road games vs. a lefty. The Brewers are 7-2-1 their L10 home games vs. a lefty. 8* Over Reds/Brewers

8* Over Phillies/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Coming off a four-game series in which they scored a total of 39 runs, the Phillies now get to use the DH as they visit Boston this weekend. Of course, the Phils give up their fair share of runs as well. They may not have given up any yesterday (won 8-0), but that was to a Cubs team that can’t score right now. In three of the previous nine games, Phillies pitching surrendered 11 or more runs. The Red Sox have scored the 2nd most runs in all of MLB, so this one is likely going Over. 

Boston wasn’t as successful in its last series, which saw them drop two of three to the Angels. However, barring a terrible weekend, they are likely to head into the All-Star Break in first place in the AL East. I’m not concerned about their ability to score runs Friday, but what they need to be concerned about is starter Garrett Richards, who has been very poor of late. Richards has an 8.02 ERA and 2.107 WHIP his L3 starts. It’s not like his season-long numbers are much better either. Richards really seems to struggle here at Fenway Park where he has a 6.75 ERA and 2.079 WHIP. 

These teams played three games in Philadelphia earlier in the season. Only one of the three games saw more than 11 runs scored, but remember that was without a DH in play. Richards did not pitch in any of the three games for Boston. Neither did Vince Velasquez for Philly. Velasquez’s numbers aren’t quite as poor as Richards, but he did just allow 5 ER in his last start. In seven of the Phillies last 10 games, the winning team has had to score at least eight runs. The Over is 5-0 their L5 games. 8* Over Phillies/Red Sox

10* Under Phillies/Cubs (8:05 ET): This has been a high-scoring series with every game seeing a minimum of 11 total runs scored. The Phillies exceeded that number themselves in each of the first two games. The good news for the Cubs is they FINALLY snapped their long losing streak (had reached 11 games) with an 8-3 win last night. The first inning was key for Chicago on Wednesday as they scored three unearned runs with two outs. There was a Phillies error followed by four straight soft singles. I don’t think they can count on that happening again and the Phils are due to start cooling off at the plate as well. Take the Under here. 

The first two games of this series saw Philadelphia score 28 runs. It was the first time they scored 10+ runs in B2B games in over six years. So it wasn’t a shock then to see them reduced to scoring only three runs yesterday. They face Adbert Alzolay tonight. Don’t be fooled by the fact Alzolay has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. He’s off a quality effort last time out against the Reds, who are a good offensive team. In that start, Alzolay allowed just three runs on five hits. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Phillies have been off a loss. 

All eight runs scored by the Cubs yesterday came with two outs. So it wasn’t just the first inning that saw them get a bit lucky. Prior to the L2 days, this is a team that had scored three runs or less in 17 of 21 games. So after them scoring 18 runs in the L2 games, I’d certainly expect a substantial decrease in production tonight. Zach Eflin starts for the Phillies here. He not only has a 2.81 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, but is also coming off B2B quality starts. Eflin held the Mets and Padres to just three runs and eight hits in 12 IP. The Under is 9-3 for the Cubs if they scored 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Under Phillies/Cubs

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Royals +1.5. This is an excellent spot for KC to get on track, facing a Cleveland team that has lost NINE in a row and was just swept in a doubleheader yesterday. Plus the Royals have revenge as they were swept at home by the Indians back in early May. It seems almost shocking that we are able to get an additional 1.5 runs to work with against a team that’s lost nine in a row. The Royals won’t do any worse than a one-run loss here. 

Truthfully, Cleveland was due for a downturn. They had been overperforming their expected win total (based on run differential) all season. Even now, having dropped to .500, you look at the run differential column and see -29. The Indians have been hit hard by injuries, which helps explain the skid, but also they just aren’t very strong offensively. Seven of the last nine games have seen them score three runs or less. They managed only one run in 14 innings of baseball yesterday and didn’t even get a single hit in the second game. 

Kansas City is also on a nine-game losing streak - on the road. So something will have to give here. The Royals also just dropped two of three at home to Cincinnati. But this is a team they can beat. Yes, Zach Plesac (who starts for the Indians tonight) has had their number in the past. But tonight will be his first time starting since May 23rd as he’s fresh off the DL. Danny Duffy is the better starter in this matchup, at least in my eyes, as he’s allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts. Keeping Cleveland’s anemic offense in check won’t be hard and the Royals should easily stay within a run of the Tribe. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* Houston (2:10 ET): It was MONTHS ago that I predicted the Astros would surpass the A’s in the AL West. That has already happened and now Houston can put even more distance between themselves and their division rival by finishing off a sweep Thursday afternoon. The lead over Oakland has grown to 5.5 games following wins on Tuesday (9-6) and Wednesday (4-3). What made me so confident in the Astros’ ability to surpass the Athletics was the respective YTD run differentials. Houston’s was always better and has now grown to a MLB-best +141. Oakland’s run diff is a far more mediocre +25. I expect the home team to finish off the sweep here. 

With them having won six in a row, I consider Houston the #1 team in baseball right now. They are 9-3 against the A’s this season. After yesterday’s win, the Astros are 19-5 this season when priced between -125 and -175 at home. Early on in the season, the A’s were quite fortunate in one-run games. However, that’s since changed with them dropping six of the last seven games decided by one run. They’ve lost 12 of 17 overall and are 0-5-1 the L6 series. 

Not only are the teams headed in opposite directions, but so are today’s two starting pitchers. Lance McCullers hasn’t dropped a decision since April and is 5-0 since that time with a 2.38 ERA. The team has won each of his last four outings. McCullers is also 6-2 in 11 career starts vs. Oakland, two of those coming this year where he allowed only two runs on four hits in 10 IP. Trending in the opposite direction is the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, who is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA his L9 starts. The team has lost each of his L3 times out. Trust the numbers on this one. Houston is simply much better. 8* Houston

7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): The Giants are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here at home vs. St. Louis. They’ve lost the first two games 5-3 and 6-5, dropping them to 3-6 the L9 games. They do continue to lead the NL West though as the Dodgers have also lost their last two games. But that lead is a tenuous one with only one-half game separating the two California rivals. There can be no argument against the fact San Francisco has been the most pleasant surprise in all of baseball in 2021 as they are +20.3 units at the betting window and have the best overall won-loss record. I see them avoiding the sweep. 

St. Louis is not a great team, so the fact they could come into San Fran and take the first two games has been a bit surprising. The Cardinals are now a game within .500, but they’ve been outscored by 38 runs this year, so this is clearly a below average ballclub. They are 3-12 this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. The Giants, meanwhile, are not only 26-13 overall at home but 4-1 when priced -175 or higher on the money line. The NL West leaders are also 20-10 off a loss. 

Johan Oviedo is still in search of his first win this season for St. Louis. He’s 0-4 in 10 starts and the road has been especially unkind with a 6.20 ERA and 2.017 WHIP. The team did win his last start, at Colorado, but that was only after scoring six runs in extra innings. Alex Wood goes for the home team tonight and he is looking to win a third straight decision. He has allowed just three runs in his last two starts. The Giants are 4-1 the last five times he’s taken the mound. Visiting teams hit just .211 here in SF and St. Louis is hitting just .217 for the year away from home. So it’s hard for me to see another decent game at the plate from them. 7* San Francisco

10* Over Yankees/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Yankees are underachieving at the moment with seven losses in their last nine games. They’ve been booed off the field by their own fans and are just a game above .500 as we near the All-Star Break. With three teams ahead of them in the American League East and a 10.5 game gap between them and the first place Red Sox, there is plenty of work to be done. They could start by scoring more runs. Did you know that they’ve scored the fewest number of runs among all AL teams this season? 

I’ve written about it before, but Seattle is MLB’s biggest overachiever in the first half of the season. They have a YTD run differential of -42. Based on said run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a WL record of 38-47. Instead, they are 45-40, largely on the back of a 19-7 record in one-run games and 9-1 record in extra innings. Both those records are MLB’s best. The gap between the Mariners’ expected and actual win total is the largest in all of MLB. They are due for a downturn and the bottom line is you should expect them to fall out of playoff contention in the second half.

For this series opener, I’m going with the Over. Both teams do have their issues offensively, but you’ve got to look at the two starters for Tuesday. Justus Sheffield has really struggled of late for Seattle with a 9.45 ERA and 2.176 WHIP his L3 starts. Going back further, he hasn’t lasted a full six innings in any of his L7 starts, a span in which his ERA is 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.97. So he’s been struggling for a while now. Speaking of struggling, Jameson Taillon has been downright awful on the road for the Yankees. He has a 11.12 ERA and 2.118 WHIP outside the Bronx and all five of those starts have gone Over the total. 10* Over Yankees/Mariners

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In a season where virtually NOTHING has gone right for the D’backs, starter Merrill Kelly has been something of a “good luck charm.” The team has won his last three starts, which may not sound all that awe-inspiring, but consider for a moment that Arizona has lost 50 of its last 58 games! Obviously, you’ve got to be rather selective about taking them (to say the least!) and it’s not something I plan on doing very often. But hosting a Colorado team and having revenge for a prior three-game sweep is enticing enough for me. 

The Rockies are coming off a 6-1 homestand and I had them Sunday in a come from behind effort against the Cardinals. They scored a run in the eighth and ninth innings to prevail 3-2. But sadly (for them) they must now bid adieu to Coors Field and hit the road. There is no worse team on the road than this one as the Rockies’ record away from Denver is a hideous 6-31. Over the last three weeks, they’ve played just two series (and five games) away from home. Overall, they’ve lost eight of their last nine road games. Today’s starter Jon Gray has an 0-5 TSR on the road this season. 

Kelly has essentially carried Arizona to wins in each of his last three starts. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during that time. All three starts were quality as he’s allowed just four runs in 20 IP. Even more impressive is who he’s beaten. San Francisco, Milwaukee and San Diego were the victims. All three are potential playoff teams with two being NL division leaders. If Kelly can beat those teams, then he certainly can beat MLB’s worst road team, which hits a pathetic .196 outside of Coors Field while scoring just 2.6 runs per game. 8* Arizona

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs have lost nine in a row and 15 out of their last 19 games. Most of those losses have come on the road, including the nine straight. Finally, they get back to the “Friendly Confines” (of Wrigley Field) on Monday and they’ll be hosting the Phillies, who got beat 11-1 on Sunday. The Cubs are 26-13 at home this season and 94-58 here since the start of 2019. The Phillies are 15-26 on the road this year and 62-90 since the start of 2019. Look for the Cubs to snap the losing skid. 

Six of the Cubs’ nine straight losses have been by one run. That includes four of the last five and the last three vs. the Reds. This offense needs to wake up and should today against Matt Moore, who has a 7.10 ERA his last three outings. He has a 1.875 WHIP for the season as well. He did just throw five shutout innings vs. the Mets last time out, but that’s unlikely to be repeated. The Cubs average 4.8 rpg at home. 

Yesterday marked the third time in the last six games that the Phillies allowed 11 or more runs. They’ve allowed 10 or more runs 11 times.  I have them rated as the worst team in the NL East. Zach Davies has a 6-2 TSR at home for the Cubs. I just think this one boils down to homefield advantage as well as the notion that the Cubs are “due.” They’re a better team than the Phillies anyway. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves come in as winners of four of their last five games. That particular streak began with a 20-2 beatdown of the Mets last Wednesday. Believe it or not, that was NOT the 1st time the Braves scored 20 runs in a game this year. They also did so May 21st vs. Pittsburgh, a series they’d go on to take three of four. They outscored the Bucs 33-3 in the three wins and since that time Pittsburgh has gotten no better. They did win Sunday, but that was only after six straight losses where they scored a total of eight runs. Even in victory yday, they could manage only two runs. 

The Pirates are in last place in the Central with a 30-53 record. They’ve been outscored by 116 runs. It’s pretty clear that they are one of the three worst teams in baseball right now (Orioles, D’backs being the others). To score only 10 runs in seven games is pretty lousy. Starting today is Chase DeJong and I don’t think he’s good enough to keep his team in this one. Not only is De Jong still winless on the year, but he has a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts.

This game is very important for Atlanta as they try yet again to reach .500. It’s a plateau they’ve tried and failed to reach six different times in 2021. I think a matchup with Pittsburgh is what should get them (finally) over the hump. Max Fried gets the starting nod. He has a 0.889 WHIP in his last three starts after being the starter in that 20-2 win over the Mets last week. Fried has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. The Braves have won 11 of 18 overall. 8* Atlanta

10* San Francisco (9:10 ET): Playing against Arizona is like “taking candy from a baby.” If you’d simply wagered against them in every game this season, then you’d be up 34.6 units. No team even really comes close to that and it should surprise none of you to know I’ve got the D’backs last in my own personal power ratings. After notching a rare win on Thursday, they’ve subsequently dropped two in a row to the Giants and Sunday’s series finale certainly looks to favor the road team with Anthony DeSclafani starting. The Giants are 16-3 L19 games vs. Arizona, including 8-1 this season. 

While things are dire out in the desert, San Francisco has been the biggest surprise in all of MLB this season. They are #1 in net units (+22.7 units) and continue to stay in front of the more talented Dodgers, which is quite the achievement. There’s really nothing phony about the Giants’ 52-30 record either as they are +103 in run differential, third best in all of baseball (Astros, Dodgers). Before winning each of the L2 days, they’d been on a season-worst four-game losing skid. But that’s in the past now. With the Dodgers (and Padres) not far behind, there is no reason for the Giants to “let up” anytime soon. 

DeSclafani has an 11-5 TSR this season. The team did lose his last start as he allowed three solo home runs in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. But the Giants aren’t playing the Dodgers today. DeSclafani had previously allowed just 4 HR’s in seven outings. He helped beat Arizona 13-7 on June 16th by allowing just two runs (one unearned) in 5 IP. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of the L5 starts. DeSclafani will be opposed today by Caleb Smith, who is still winless after seven starts. That’s not necessarily “his fault,” but that’s what happens when you pitch for a bad team and Arizona is most definitely a “bad team.” 10* San Francisco

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies look to win the series today as they can make it three of four against the Cardinals. The only loss in this series was 9-3 on Friday, a highly misleading final, as the game went to extra innings after St. Louis tied it in the ninth. There was a grand slam in the 10th. Save for that, the Rockies have been playing well of late. I was on them when they won the opener of this series, 5-2, on Thursday. They won 3-2 last night thanks to a three-run blast by Trevor Story that broke a scoreless tie. It’s imperative that Colorado keeps winning these types of games, given the division they are in and the road record. 

Coors Field has always been a bit of a “sanctuary” for the Rockies. That’s really been the case in 2021. The team is a woeful 6-31 on the road this season and that’s a big reason why they aren’t going to be a playoff contender. Playing in the NL West also doesn’t help matters. You’ve got the three best teams in the National League (Dodgers, Giants, Padres) all in this division and the Rockies are just 8-17 against those teams. But they are basically .500 against everyone else and at home they’ve gone a strong 30-17. They are 6-1 as a favorite of -125 to -175 on the money (28-12 L3 seasons). 

Another reason to like Colorado here is the starting pitching matchup. German Marquez comes in with a 0.39 ERA and 0.348 WHIP his L3 starts. The Rockies have won all three games. Marquez has a 6-1 TSR at home with a 3.06 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. The Rockies have been getting really solid pitching of late (surprisingly!) as they’ve allowed two runs or less in five of the six games on the current home stand. It would have been six straight if not for the late inning debacle Friday. Carlos Martinez has not been giving St. Louis much in the way of quality starts of late. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.143 WHIP his L3 starts. The Cards are 2-11 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. 10* Colorado

8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Perhaps this is a case of me being “too stubborn,” but I am determined to continue fading Seattle as they have overachieved in incredible fashion this year, thanks to going 19-7 in one-run games and 9-1 in extra innings. They have a -41 YTD run differential, yet are five games above .500. Last night was another extra innings win, 5-4, as they improved to 13-0 their L13 home games vs. Texas. Eventually, this madness must stop. Why not tonight? 

Now the Rangers have some obvious flaws, but Jordan Lyles isn’t one of them. Starting on Saturday, Lyles is looking to continue a strong stretch of performances where he’s lowered his ERA by two full points. He just threw seven strong innings against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing only one run to score. Three of his last four starts at home have seen Lyles allow only 1 ER. It’s not like Seattle is a good offensive team either. They rank last in the American League in both batting average and OBP. They are hitting only .208 for the season at home! 

This Mariners “magic” will run out. Mark my words. Run differential is too good a predictor of future outcomes for their not to be a downturn in the standings. Marco Gonzales hasn’t started in nearly two weeks due to being on the paternity list. He’s only made three starts since April 27th. With only three quality starts all season and a 5.10 ERA, Gonzales probably shouldn’t be trusted in this spot. Because Seattle has been so lucky in close games this year, I’ll grab the +1.5 but I do expect the Rangers to win. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Oakland (7:15 ET): Boston has won eight in a row, but three of the last five (last night included) have been by one run and I think it’s time the win streak ended. It very nearly did last night and some say it should have. Oakland had runners at the corners with nobody out in the bottom half of the 10th and looked poised to at least tie. But a runner was thrown out at home after a fly out and that effectively ended the game. With the pitching matchup in their favor tonight, look for the A’s to turn the tide. It speaks volumes that they are favored on the money line here.

Starter Cole Irvin is probably the main reason that the home team is favored in this one. He’s coming off an unbeaten June with three wins in five starts. The team was 5-0 in those five starts. He just threw eight shutout innings at San Francisco on Sunday, arguably his best outing of the season. I know that Boston has been hitting the ball well of late, but they had just six hits Friday and the majority of their lineup is not familiar with Irvin, a lefty. 

Garrett Richards beat the A’s back on May 13th when he threw six shutout innings. He then won his next start at Toronto. Ever since, he’s winless with a 6.75 ERA and 2.01 WHIP (seven starts). He has a 10.32 ERA his L3 starts. The fact that the Red Sox have managed to win four of his last five starts seems rather fortunate as Richards has allowed 23 runs in 21 ⅔ innings. Early in the season, it felt like Oakland was a team that was overachieving, but now it’s Boston that fits that bill. Time to fade. 10* Oakland

8* Under Cubs/Reds (4:10 ET): The Cubs lost for the seventh straight yesterday, 2-1 to the Reds. It was also the fifth time during the losing streak that they were held to 1 or 2 runs. Cincinnati has now won B2B games (both by 1 run) for the 1st time since 6/22-24. The teams are now separated by just one-half game in the NL Central and have identical YTD run differentials (-3). I look for today to be another low-scoring game at Great American Ballpark as four of the last six meetings between these clubs have seen six or fewer total runs scored. Take the Under. 

The Cubs come in with poor offensive numbers to begin with, particularly on the road where they are hitting a collective .214 and scoring only 3.7 rpg. As I said earlier, they’ve been in a real offensive slump and it actually extends beyond just the current seven-game slide. Since July 13th, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. That’s out of 17 games. So even though Tyler Mahle typically pitches better on the road than at home for the Reds, look for him to pitch well today against a struggling lineup. Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 0.966 WHIP. 

Admittedly, the Reds’ offense is usually pretty good at home. But they haven’t topped five runs in any of their last four games and yesterday they could manage only four hits. They’ve also struck out 10 or more times in five of the last seven games. So Adbert Alzolay, who allowed a season-high in runs last time out, should bounce back Saturday afternoon. The last time Alzolay faced the Reds, he tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings and the Cubs won 1-0. He’ll need to be that good again considering the lack of run support he’s likely to get. 8* Under Cubs/Reds

10* Texas (10:05 ET): Seattle must be stopped! What do I mean by this? Well, they are a team currently four games over .500 despite a YTD run differential of -42. Certainly, that is a sign of overachieving. In fact, no team’s actual win total (43 in the case of Seattle) exceeds its expected win total (which is based on run differential) more so than the Mariners. For the record, the M’s expected win total is only 36. Throw in the fact that this team is off B2B wins as an underdog of +175 or higher (both over Toronto) and it’s time for a downturn in the Pacific Northwest. Even crazier is that oddsmakers have priced the M’s as just a 16-win team! (That’s how many games they have been favored in this season). 

Not only do we have an overachieving side in this AL West matchup, but the other team is going for revenge. Texas dropped all four games here in Seattle on Memorial Day Weekend. Two of those games were decided by one run. The Mariners have 18 one-run wins this season, most in MLB. They are also 8-1 in games decided in extra innings. That’s how they’ve been able to get above .500 despite such a poor YTD run differential. 

I’m not going to tell you Texas is a great ballclub, but they did just take two of three in Oakland. They’ve also got their best starter, Kyle Gibson, on the mound Friday. Gibson has a 2.00 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 15 starts. The team is 10-5 in those 15 starts. His last start saw Gibson toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with a season-high 10 K’s. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 14 consecutive starts! So look for him to outduel Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.38 ERA at home this year. The Mariners, who are not good offensively, hit just .207 at home. They are last in the AL in both batting average and OBP. Look for the Rangers to avenge what happened Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Texas

8* Under Astros/Indians (7:05 ET): I tried with the Under on this matchup last night and sadly playing after the line moved was costly. The O/U line opened at 9.0, but dropped to 8.5. In the end, Houston won 7-2. Most of the scoring occurred early and really the result was determined by one swing of the bat, that being a Jose Altuve grand slam. While that swing of the bat was not welcomed by me or the Indians, it certainly was for an Astros team that had just gotten swept by Baltimore (at home!) and scored three runs or less in five of their previous six games. But I wouldn’t expect Houston to go for that many again tonight. Take the Under again here. 

Cleveland is not a particularly good offensive team. They are 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in on base percentage. They scored only two runs yesterday and have just nine in their last 23 innings. This despite hitting four home runs (all solo) in one of the games Wednesday. In their last 10 games, they’ve had more than eight hits just once. Six of those games have seen them finish with six or fewer hits. So expect Lance McCullers Jr to pitch well tonight for Houston. It’s not like McCullers isn’t doing well enough on his own. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive outings. 

Now Sam Hentges did not pitch well his last time out for Cleveland. He gave up six runs in just three innings, a game the Tribe ended up losing 8-2. But Hentges had been fairly solid before that, including five shutout innings vs. Pittsburgh on 6/20. Houston is batting just .208 its L7 games. I do not think they’re going to be able to maintain a scoring average of 5.9 rpg on the road for a full season. So let’s go with the Under again tonight and hope there are no more grand slams. 8* Under Astros/Indians

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Both teams swept their last series. It was also a sweep the first time the Cardinals and Rockies faced off here in 2021. The Cardinals took all three games at Busch Stadium back in May, but as everyone knows the Rockies are a much better team at Coors Field. They’ve got the worst road record in all of MLB (6-31!) but are a very reputable 28-16 at home. So I like their chances at exacting some revenge in tonight’s series opener as St. Louis probably should not even be favored here. 

The Cardinals’ last nine games have been against the Tigers, Pirates and D’backs, three of the worst teams in baseball. Despite that, they went just 4-5 overall. Three of the four wins came in the last series, against a horrendous Arizona team that has now dropped 28 of its last 29 road games. If this game was taking place in St. Louis, it might be a different story, but starter Adam Wainwright has a 6.31 ERA on the road this season and we all know what the Rockies can do at the plate here in the thin air of Denver (5.8 rpg). 

St. Louis is just a game under .500, but they’ve actually been outscored this year by 42 runs. So their record probably should be a lot worse. Colorado’s YTD run differential is -53, not far off from St. Louis, but they are 13 games below .500.  I love the revenge angle and the home field advantage in this one, plus starter Antonio Senzatela has a solid 2.81 ERA his last eight starts at Coors. The Rockies really dominated Pittsburgh in the last series, shutting them out twice and outscoring them 16-2 in the three games. That’s a Pirates team that just took three of four from the Cardinals (in St. Louis). 10* Colorado

8* Over Mets/Braves (7:20 ET): I took the Over in Jacob deGrom’s last start and won as he allowed a season-high TWO runs against Philadelphia.  He figures to allow at least a couple today facing a Braves lineup that just put TWENTY on the board in yesterday’s game. That snapped a five-game Under streak for Atlanta and was the same number of runs they had scored in their previous seven games - combined. It was a bit of an aberration and obviously they probably won’t even score a quarter of that tonight. But I do like the Over again here as deGrom’s last three starts have all gone that way.

For what it’s worth, Atlanta does average 5.5 runs per game here at home. That’s top five in all of baseball. While they could muster only one hit the last time they saw deGrom (10 days ago), they only faced him for five innings. They ended up scoring two runs in the game. deGrom has lasted more than six innings only one time in his last nine starts. So the Braves figure to get a decent number of cracks against a Mets’ bullpen they hammered for 14 runs yesterday. The Mets’ bullpen ERA on the road this year is 5.11.

deGrom isn’t going to give up a ton of runs, but the ridiculous season that he’s having is likely to have a “speed bump” or two. Of course, the Mets could also help us out here by scoring more runs. They’ve been held to just 19 runs in the L7 games and it feels like they are due to breakout against Ian Anderson, who has seen the Over hit in six of his seven home starts this season. Braves’ home games average 10.3 rpg. The Over is 22-8-1 when the Mets are road favorites. 8* Over Mets/Braves

8* Under Padres/Reds (7:10 ET): Here’s a matchup I won last night by taking San Diego. They won 7-5 in a rain shortened game (called after six innings) and now have a chance to sweep the Reds for the second time in three weeks. They are 6-0 vs. Cincinnati in 2021, but interestingly enough are NOT favored to win tonight. This despite facing a starting pitcher with a 4-12 TSR. But Luis Castillo (the Reds’ starter in question) has been MUCH better of late and should help keep this game relatively low-scoring. 

With the teams combining for 12 runs in just 5 ⅓ innings last night, you may find it a bit curious to come back and take the Under the next day. But note those 12 runs came on just 12 hits. San Diego got a grand slam, which doesn’t happen every day, and that one swing of the bat accounted for the bulk of its runs. I mentioned earlier how Castillo has been much better of late. He held San Diego to three runs in six innings back on 6/20. He also has twice thrown seven scoreless innings in his L3 starts. His L5 starts have seen him allow a total of 6 ER. So look the other way when it comes to Castillo’s record. He’s pitching very well of late. 

San Diego’s Ryan Weathers has a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in eight starts this season. The numbers get even better in his four starts on the road (2.30, 0.893). This will be his first start since June 7th as he’s taking the injured Dinelson Lamet’s spot in the rotation. Usually, you might not have a lot of confidence in a “fill-in” starter, but I like Weathers’ resume. The Reds have never faced him before and they hit just .228 off LH starters. Under is 33-16-4 in the Padres’ last 53 games when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. 8* Under Padres/Reds

8* Under Astros/Indians (7:10 ET): I won with the Under in the Astros’ game last night. I was right that Baltimore, who had scored 22 runs in the first two games of that series, would see its scoring decrease. It did as Houston held them to five runs (four of those coming in the first). That was more than I expected them to allow. Thankfully though, the ‘Stros only scored two of their own as their offense has gone dormant the last several games.. They’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last six games. I’m going with the Under again tonight as Cleveland is hardly a reputable offensive ballclub.

The Indians played a doubleheader yesterday and lost both games (here at home) to the Tigers. Their offense could manage only eight hits in the two games. I don’t really like their chances of doing much damage at the plate here against Framber Valdez, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Valdez has a 2.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six starts. Going back to the end of last year, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 11 straight starts. He allowed a season-high 3 ER last time out (at Detroit), but two of those came on one pitch. 

The Indians actually homered four times in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, but all were solo shots. Rest assured they won’t be repeating that long-ball performance today. They only got runners in scoring position five times in the two games. This team is 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in OBP. As far as keeping Houston in check, Jean Carlos Mejia’s job as Cleveland’s starter may be easier than you think based on the Astros’ recent offensive slump. Also, Mejia is coming off his best start to date as he allowed only one run in six innings of work. 8* Under Astros/Indians

10* Under Orioles/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been shocked by Baltimore each of the last two games, losing 9-7 and 13-3. They were massive favorites on the ML in both losses (-325 and -290). In each instance, the bullpen was to blame as that group has given up 18 of the 22 runs allowed in this series. So a strong effort is needed today from starter Luis Garcia and thankfully he has a 1.78 ERA and 0.991 WHIP at home this season. I’m going with the Under here as Baltimore won’t be scoring as many runs today, but the money line is still too high. 

Monday’s game really had no business going Over. It was 4-4 headed into the ninth, but then the Orioles went off for a five-run 9th followed by the Astros scoring three of their own. Yesterday saw the O’s homer four times and nine of their runs came in the final two innings. Playing 20 games in 20 days has obviously adversely affected Houston, but they can lean on Garcia tonight as he has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. 

Now Matt Harvey could be the “fly in the ointment” with this Under play as he is having a terrible year for Baltimore. But with Houston scoring three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, maybe this is the spot where Harvey steps up. He only allowed 3 ER in 5 ⅔ IP his last time out. Even if the Astros score five or six runs in this game, it still should stay Under as I just can’t see the Orioles going off again. They average only 3.9 runs per game on the road. 10* Under Orioles/Astros

7* San Diego (7:10 ET): The Padres are now 5-0 against the Reds this season following last night’s 5-4 victory. That was also San Diego’s 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Cincinnati’s lineup had no answers for the Padres’ bullpen which pitched four shutout innings last night. With Joe Musgrove starting on Wednesday, SD skipper Jayce Tingler likely won’t have to lean so hard on his relievers tonight. Musgrove, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this year, has a 2.47 ERA and 0.887 WHIP. 

Given his individual numbers, you’d expect Musgrove to have a better won-loss record than 4-6. But his TSR is 8-6 and that’s after B2B dominating efforts. The first came against the Reds, whom Musgrove held scoreless for seven innings on June 17th. Then he helped the Padres beat the Dodgers by allowing only one run on two hits last week. Sadly for Musgrove, he did not factor into either decision. He actually hasn’t won since May 19th, which seems grossly unfair. Needless to say, he’s overdue for a win here.

The Padres, despite being in third place in their own division, would be leading both the NL East and NL Central. They are without question the NL’s third best team. I’ve got them sixth overall in my own power ratings. Cincinnati is a pedestrian ballclub with a .500 record. Their bullpen is poor and they’ve allowed the third most runs in the National League. That’s a problem when facing the team that’s #2 in all of MLB in runs allowed per game. Reds’ starter Vladimir Gutierrez was roughed up by SD for five runs in his worst start of the year back on 6/19. 7* San Diego

6* Toronto (7:07 ET): The price is high on Toronto, but I am very confident that it is appropriate for this series against Seattle. I took the Blue Jays yesterday and they won 9-3. The Mariners scored all of their runs in one inning, on a France three-run HR. The Jays immediately answered with a pair of 3-run HRs of their own in the next two innings. As I talked about in yday’s analysis, these teams might have similar records, but the pricing shows who the oddsmakers believe is far better. Their belief is confirmed by Toronto having a +71 YTD run differential while Seattle has as a -49 YTD run differential. 

The Mariners are 41-39, but have an “expected” win total of 34 based on that aforementioned run differential. The gap between their actual and expected wins is the largest in all of MLB, at least from an overachieving standpoint. Meanwhile, Toronto also now has 41 wins, but they have an “expected” win total of 45 based on their run differential. Their gap is among the highest for underachievers. The Jays’ run differential is actually 4th best in the entire American League while Seattle’s is 5th worst. 

So what I’m saying is you should expect the home team to continue rolling in this series. They’ve won eight of nine and seven of those wins have been by three runs or greater. Steven Matz gets the starting nod on Wednesday, returning from the COVID-19 list. While Matz isn’t having his best season, he did pitch well the last time we saw him (6/12) in a 7-2 win over Boston. Justus Sheffield goes for Seattle and he is 0-3 his L3 starts with an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. All three losses were to sub-.500 teams. Sheffield has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts. 6* Toronto

10* Under Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): Mother nature would not allow this series to begin as scheduled on Monday. So after a rainout, things get underway Tuesday with Lucas Giolito going for the White Sox and Kenta Maeda going for the Twins. This looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup as both guys are well rested. Giolito dominated the Twins the one time he faced them earlier in the year. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on two hits. He also had 11 strikeouts in the 2-1 win. Maeda is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox, all of which have been here in Chicago. Take the Under. 

Maeda has also made one previous start against the White Sox this year. In it, he allowed three runs and four hits over five innings. Not his best effort, but still pretty good. Last time out, Maeda allowed just two runs on five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. That makes it six straight starts from him where he allowed three or fewer runs. The White Sox have actually been struggling of late, losing seven of their last nine games. They’ve topped four runs just one time in that stretch. So look for Maeda to pitch well on Tuesday as it’s been nearly two weeks since Chicago had 10 or more hits in a game. 

The Twins are off B2B wins where they scored eight runs in both games. But we should see them cool off here against Giolito, who has allowed more than 3 ER in only four of his 15 starts this year. The Over is actually 3-0 in Giolito’s last three starts, but that’s mostly because of good run support. He has a 1.00 WHIP in those three starts, never factoring into a decision. The Under is 15-6-2 in the White Sox last 23 home games where they are allowing only 3.3 rpg this season. 10* Under Twins/White Sox

6* Toronto (7:07 ET): Should be an easy win today for the Blue Jays. When examining which teams are over and underperforming their expected win total (which is based on YTD run differential), these two teams come up. Seattle is a clear overachiever. They are somehow three games over .500 despite being outscored by 43 runs this season. The key for them has been a 7-1 record in extra innings and a MLB-high 18 one-run wins. The Mariners have an expected win total of 35 based on their run differential. So they are due for a downturn after winning 10 of the last 13 games. 

Meanwhile, Toronto should be doing better than they are. They have a YTD run differential of +65, which is better than first place Boston, but they trail the Red Sox by 6.5 games in the AL East. Based on that run differential, the Blue Jays should have 45 wins, not 40. So expect them to start surging. They come into this series having won seven of eight, thanks to facing Baltimore a bunch of times. 

Chris Flexen has admittedly looked sharp of late for Seattle. But Tuesday’s starter has not been good on the road this year with a 7.27 ERA and 1.629 WHIP. Despite those numbers, his team start record on the road is 4-1. So he’s been lucky. That luck runs out today, however. Pitching for Toronto will be Robbie Ray, who has better overall numbers than Flexen. Ray has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts and last time out he held Miami to one run in six innings. 6* Toronto

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After being swept in San Diego and then no-hit by the Cubs, the Dodgers have started rolling again. They have won three in a row and now have a huge showdown with the first place Giants at Chavez Ravine. The home team is just 1-6 in head to head meetings this season, but that trend should stop Monday as the Dodgers are 26-13 at home this year and don’t want to miss on any opportunities to cut into the Giants’ three-game lead in the division.

I’ve got these teams rated 2 and 3 in my own power rankings. The Dodgers are one spot ahead (Houston is #1). Generally speaking, you don’t need an “excuse” to bet the Dodgers, but having Trevor Bauer on the hill only sweetens the pot. Now Bauer does have a 7-9 TSR this season, but that’s highly misleading and this is a great price to take him at home. He has a 4-1 TSR in LA, a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. In his only previous start vs. San Francisco this year, he allowed just one run and two hits as the Dodgers won 2-1. 

The Giants being ahead of the Dodgers in the division is definitely a surprise. Anthony DeSclafani is even more surprising. He has a 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. But he had one start against the Dodgers this year was a disaster. He allowed 10 runs in 2 ⅔ innings. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight, but the Dodgers should get to him and take this series opener. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. These are the top two teams in the NL Central and as it stands right now the Brewers have a three-game advantage. That’s mostly due to the events of this past weekend when the Brew Crew swept Colorado while the Cubs dropped three of four out in LA. I expect a reversal of fortune in this series, starting tonight and just to be “careful” I’ll grab the +1.5. 

The Cubs opened that Dodgers series with a no-hitter on Thursday, but could not score much after that, nor slow down the Dodgers. But they’ve got the “stopper” on the mound Monday in Kyle Hendricks. His team start record in his last eight starts is a perfect 8-0. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA during this career-best stretch and is now tied for the MLB lead in wins. Hendricks is also working on a 15 inning scoreless streak. Milwaukee is a weak offensive team and is actually dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (only hitting .210 at home!). This is a favorable matchup for Hendricks, who has allowed just 2 ER in 12 IP vs. the Brewers this season. 

Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has also been on fire of late. He’s allowed more than 3 ER only one time all season. He also has a 3-0 TSR against the Cubs with a 1.80 ERA and 25 strikeouts. But facing him for a FOURTH time, the Cubs hitters should have a better idea “what’s coming” tonight. Milwaukee is coming off B2B series against very easy opposition (Colorado, Arizona) so this will be the toughest team they’ve faced in a while. I have the Cubs higher in my own power ratings, so the +1.5 is a “no brainer.” 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two clubs that weren’t very good at avenging prior sweeps over the weekend hook it up in the Bronx this evening. The Angels did snap a five-game win streak Sunday by finally beating the Rays, 6-4. They had previously been 0-6 against the Rays this season. Also over the weekend, the Yankees were swept by the Red Sox for the second time this month. That put an end to a nice 7-2 run that the team was on. I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Halos Monday. 

The Yankees are now in fourth place in the AL East and the three teams ahead of them all have vastly superior run differentials. Needless to say, this was not expected. They hit well against Red Sox pitching, but not when it mattered most (3 for 18 w/ RISP) and they also struck out 30 times. Expect more favorable results at the plate tonight when they go up against Dylan Bundy, who is 1-7 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Bundy has not pitched well vs. NY in the past, going 2-6 with a 6.52 ERA in 13 appearances. 

Michael King gets the starting nod for the home team and while he’s still winless in five starts (2-3 TSR), I expect him to pitch well here. The Angels had been held to just 12 runs in five games before winning Sunday. The Yankees are 90-40 L130 games as a home favorite and 6-1 if they allowed 5+ runs in the previous game. They’ve won the last two times King has started and visiting teams are batting just .211 this season at Yankee Stadium. 8* NY Yankees

10* Over A’s/Giants (4:05 ET): Thanks to extra innings, these teams combined to go Over the total on Saturday. The Giants won the game 6-5 (total was 8.0) and now go for the sweep on Sunday. They won 2-0 on Friday, so runs have been fairly hard to come by for both teams. Maybe that’s not all that surprising for the A’s, who don’t get to utilize the designated hitter in this interleague series. But the Giants average 5.1 runs per game at home and the Over is 12-4-1 here their L17 games vs. AL teams. Take the Over today. 

It’s a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday, which often has me thinking the other way (Under) as many teams struggle against left-handed pitching. But not the Giants, who are scoring 5.2 rpg when facing a LH starter. They are 12-3-1 their L16 interleague games vs. a lefty. It will be Cole Irvin that they face today. Irvin has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and he’s allowed four runs each of the last two starts, despite not making it through six innings either time. The Giants are averaging 7.4 rpg in their L9 contests. 

Sammy Long will go for San Francisco today. Long made his first ever big league start back last Sunday and it went well with him allowing only two runs and four hits in 6 IP. But the game vs. Philadelphia still (easily) went Over as it was an 11-2 win for the Giants. Oakland’s hitters are likely to test Long more than the Phillies did. The A’s have scored more runs this season on the road than at home and they are now 6-1 Over their last seven games at San Fran. 10* Over A’s/Giants

8* Run Line NY Yankees (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yankees +1.5. It was a tough loss for me last night as I went big on the Yankees. They never led, but did answer Boston’s three-run first inning with three of their own in the top of the second. They also ended up out-hitting the Red Sox, 9-7. But they lost 5-3 and that is all that matters. Still though, I think all the necessary elements are present for the Yanks to bounce back and deliver a win tonight. 

Don’t forget it’s not just last night’s loss that the Yankees are looking to avenge here. They were also swept at home by the Red Sox earlier this month. Prior to these four straight losses, the Yankees had won 23 of 29 meetings against their bitter rivals. They are also 6-0 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. Starter Jordan Montgomery has an 11-3 TSR this season, including 6-0 his L6 starts. He allowed just one run on three hits his last time out, a game NY won (2-1 against Oakland). 

Opposing Montgomery will be Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the Red Sox staff in wins (7). But Eovaldi hasn’t fared well in two of his previous three starts. He does hold a win over the Yankees this year, but has been shaky ever since, allowing 21 hits in 16 ⅓ IP. He gave up four runs to a bad Kansas City team in his last start. After playing well enough to win last night’s game, I just can’t see the Yankees doing any worse than a one run loss here. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5)

8* Run Line LA Angels (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Angels +1.5. Tampa Bay is off a couple of one-run victories, including 4-3 in last night’s series opener. They’ve won three in a row overall going back to when I took them on Wednesday (and they clobbered the Red Sox 8-2). With this win streak, they’ve regained the lead in the AL East (half game up on the Red Sox) and are undoubtedly one of the AL’s best teams this year. Meanwhile, the Angels seem to be fading with four straight losses. But I don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is interesting as the Angels’ Alex Cobb has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts while Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. So there’s an edge to the underdog. Cobb hasn’t started in over a week. The last time we saw him was last Friday, when I took the Over as the Angels faced the Tigers. Cobb’s teammates scored 11 runs for him that day (so the Over won), but lost in that offensive outburst was the fact Cobb pitched very well, giving up only an unearned run over 5 ⅔ IP.

McClanahan is going to have to deal with the red hot Shohei Ohtani, who has homered in seven of his last nine games. Ohtani led off last night’s game with a HR and it went 453 feet. McClanahan has allowed at least one HR in each of those last four starts that the Rays have lost. The Angels had more total bases than the Rays did last night. The game ended up being decided by a HBP. Going into yday, Tampa Bay was hitting just .179 its L7 games and .219 for the year at home. The lack of offense will keep this one close (at least within one run) and I give the Angels a great shot at stealing it. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Over Phillies/Mets (4:10 ET): This may seem a bit crazy with the incomparable Jacob deGrom pitching today for the Mets. In what has been one of the greatest pitching efforts in MLB history, deGrom has allowed a TOTAL of FOUR earned runs all season (also three unearned). His 0.50 ERA would be a record. The last time deGrom allowed a run to score was May 25th. He’s working on a 27-inning scoreless streak coming into today. On top of deGrom pitching, these teams combined for just six runs total in yesterday’s doubleheader and both games went an extra inning (still only 8 inning games).

So the numbers definitely do not favor what I am picking here. But deGrom has been dealing with right shoulder soreness and that has limited him to just eight combined innings in his last two starts. Once he’s out of the game, the Phillies will have their chances to score runs. Interestingly enough, when the Phillies faced deGrom earlier this year, they were shutout for six innings. But after deGrom left, they rallied for a 5-3 win. With the total being this low, we don’t need a ton of runs from the Phillies today. 

Or maybe the Mets can send this one Over by themselves? They’ll be facing Zach Eflin, who has really struggled for the Phillies as of late. Eflin allowed seven runs in his last start, a game the Phils lost 11-2. Eflin has been particularly bad on the road where he has an ERA of 6.26. The Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games with a total of 6.5 or lower. I really do think there’s a chance that the Mets can send this one Over themselves. But I also look for the Phillies to get on the board today as well. 10* Over Phillies/Mets

7* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think that the White Sox are poised to do quite well for themselves in this series. Yes, they’ve been in a bit of a slump, losing five out of their last six. But four of those losses came to the Astros, who have absolutely been on fire of late. The White Sox snapped their losing streak with a 4-3 win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday and now face a Seattle club that has greatly overachieved in 2021. The Mariners are two games over .500, but certainly should NOT be considered a legit Wild Card contender. Not just because Houston & Oakland are in their division, but also because of a -48 YTD run differential. 

Chicago also has its #1 starter on the mound tonight in Carlos Rodon. The southpaw comes in with a 1.83 ERA and 0.842 WHIP after 12 starts and has been one of the top pitchers this year in the entire American League. On top of that, he’s 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in four prior starts against Seattle. Yusei Kikuchi, another left-hander, is having a good month for Seattle. But he’s not in the same class as Rodon, plus the White Sox tend to “eat up” lefties, winning 27 of the last 39 games against them. 

Also notable with the White Sox recent losing skid was that none of those games were at home. They are 27-12 this season at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for Seattle, they are 13-33 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons (about what you’d expect) including 3-9 in 2021. I look at Seattle’s run differential and just HAVE to believe they are headed for a nosedive. No team has exceeded its expected win total by a greater margin. The White Sox are a top 5 team in baseball and should win easily. 7* Chi White Sox

8* Under Mariners/White Sox (8:10 ET): I also like the Under in this game. Rodon is obviously a big reason for that. The Mariners are 29th in team batting average, last in on base percentage and 29th in OPS. So they are simply not going to score many runs tonight. Honestly, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get blanked. But with Kikuchi on the hill, they won’t give up a ton of runs either. Kikuchi has allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and he’s given up just one run total in his last two outings. Both of those last two outings saw him go seven innings. This could easily end up being 3-0 Chicago. 8* Under Mariners/White Sox

8* Miami (7:10 ET): Let’s try this again. The Marlins’ struggles at the plate continued last night as they lost to Joe Ross and Washington 7-3. It was the seventh time in nine games that the Fish were held to three runs or less and in the case of last night, all three runs were scored in the bottom of the eighth (when they were already behind 7-0). It was also the fourth loss to the Nationals this season without a win. I still believe Miami is better and with a more favorable starting pitching matchup set for Friday, I’m going back to the home team again. 

Washington, specifically Kyle Schwarber, has had no problems hitting the ball of late. Schwarber homered twice last night, giving him 12 in his last 13 games. It was a three-run HR in the second inning that really dampened the mood in Miami. But Schwarber is likely to start cooling off. Miami’s bats are also due to start heating up. Interestingly enough, the two times in the last nine games that the Marlins did NOT score three runs or less, they scored 10 and 11. So they are certainly capable of a big night offensively. I think it comes here. 

Jon Lester starts for the Nats Friday. He’s been on a bit of a nice run, but hasn’t gone very deep into games. I see him being outdueled here by Pablo Lopez, who has been outstanding at home for Miami. Lopez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in eight home starts and his WHIP is 0.778 the L3 starts overall. He is certainly deserving of a better TSR than 7-8, just like Miami is due a better overall record than 31-43 (they have a positive run differential). Throw in the way the line moved this morning and all signs point to the Marlins getting on track tonight. 8* Miami 

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Big time revenge spot for the Yankees, who got swept by the rival Red Sox (in Yankees Stadium) earlier this month. This time, they are catching Boston off a very deflating loss. The Red Sox had a combined no-hit bid (multiple pitchers) going into the 8th inning last night in Tampa Bay, but ended up losing that game 1-0. Meanwhile, the Yankees won comfortably in the afternoon, beating the Royals 8-1. Revenge would seem to be in the air this weekend at Fenway Park and I think the Yanks gain a measure of it, starting with tonight’s series opener. 

Lost in the fact that Red Sox pitching hadn’t given up any hits going into the 8th last night was that they hadn’t scored any runs. That ended up being significant! They certainly can’t count on getting solid pitching tonight with Martin Perez on the mound. Perez has a 12.97 ERA and 2.521 WHIP in his last three starts. Boston has scored just two runs in its last two games. They’ve been held to three runs or less in four of the last six games. Certainly the Red Sox have been an early season surprise, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up finishing 4th in the AL East. 

The Yankees have won seven of nine and will hand the baseball to Domingo German tonight. Like Perez, German has struggled recently. But he has better overall numbers than Perez. In fact, from 4/22 through 6/6, German allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. One of those was against Boston, whom he held to one run and three hits over 5 ⅔ innings. The Yankees may have gotten swept earlier this year, but they’ve had the Red Sox number through the years, taking 23 of the last 29 head to head matchups. Boston is just 8-22 as a home underdog. 10* NY Yankees

8* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Cubs and Dodgers probably feel like they should be leading their respective divisions right now, but both have struggled of late. The Cubs had dropped six of eight before winning 7-1 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Dodgers were just swept in San Diego. But I still like the future outlook for both teams. The Cubs are the only team in the NL Central with a positive YTD run differential. The Dodgers YTD run differential, while taking a hit in recent days, is still among the best in baseball. 

These teams have met before in 2021. The Cubs swept a three-game series where every game went Over the total. Rather than play the revenge angle here (odds are too steep), I’m looking for the Over trend to continue as the Dodgers should rediscover their offense now that they’re back in Chavez Ravine. They scored only seven runs the entire series vs. San Diego, but this is a team that averages 5.2 runs per game at home. I like the matchup against Cubs starter Zack Davies, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.767 WHIP on the road this year. Last time out, Davies allowed eight runs and that was at home. 

Davies will be opposed here by Walker Buehler. It would seem “fashionable” to expect Buehler not to give up many runs. After all, he’s been pretty “lights out” in June, especially the L3 starts. But when he started against the Cubs on 5/5, it ended up being a 6-5 game even with Buehler turning in a quality start. He figures to get plenty of run support this time, so as long as the Cubs score a few, this one should easily surpass the O/U line. 8* Over Cubs/Dodgers

6* Houston (7:10 ET): This is the first of two “revenge” plays that I’ve got in this three-game report. Back in mid-April, one of the more shocking results of this entire MLB season took place as the Tigers swept the Astros in Houston. Given where the two teams are at now, that result makes little sense. Houston comes into tonight as the hottest team in all of baseball. They’ve won 10 in a row and have now outscored their opponents by 135 runs (#1 in MLB) this season. Detroit has won three in a row, but they are 10 games below .500 and have a -62 YTD run differential. The road team should win big today. 

Houston has outscored opponents 81-21 during their 10-game win streak. Four times they’ve scored 10 or more runs. One of those was last night, a 13-0 win in Baltimore. This is the highest scoring team in all of baseball and not only are they averaging 8.1 runs over the L10 games, but also 6.0 rpg on the road for the season. Certainly, the Astros have to be excited to face Jose Urena tonight. Urena has a 13.91 ERA and 2.364 WHIP his last three starts. The last two times Urena has started, the Tigers have lost 15-2 and 11-3. Urena was responsible for 15 of those 26 runs being scored despite pitching only six innings. 

As hot as Houston is at the plate right now, their pitching has been equally impressive. They’ve allowed just 2.1 rpg during the win streak and only one time have they allowed more than three runs. It will be Luis Garcia on the bump tonight and he has a 2.80 ERA. In his last start, Garcia faced the White Sox (a very good team) and held them to just one run in seven innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Over the L7 starts, you’re looking at a 2.01 ERA and 1.041 WHIP and Garcia has 1 ER or less five times. 6* Houston

10* Miami (7:10 ET): This is the other “revenge” spot in the three-pack. Miami was swept by Washington back in early May. It has been a very frustrating season for the Marlins when you consider they are in last place in the NL East despite having the division’s second best run differential. They’ve allowed just 13 runs in the L7 games, yet are somehow 2-5! They just dropped a couple home games vs. Toronto, by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, but armed with revenge against a division foe they should break through tonight. 

Washington has the best record in the National League over the L10 games at 9-1. They just won a couple games at Philadelphia, including 13-12 yesterday. Again, that’s almost the same number of runs that Miami pitching has allowed over the L7 games! Both wins in Philly were by one run and the Nationals now have four of those in the last nine games. So they’ve been far from dominant. This is a team that’s been outscored this season and is just 14-18 on the road. Starter Joe Ross has a 2-6 TSR on the road. 

Cody Poteet will look to keep the string of strong Miami pitching performances going on Thursday. He’s pitched only one time at home so far and he didn’t allow any runs. It was seven shutout innings of three hit ball vs. the Mets on 5/23. What the Nats did at the plate yday is not indicative of what you should expect from them. In their previous eight games, they were held to three runs or less five times. The only question mark here is the Marlins offense, but it shouldn’t take much to win this game. 10* Miami

8* Under Royals/Yankees (1:05 ET): These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are heavily favored to take today’s rubber match after prevailing 6-5 last night. It was 6-5 Kansas City in the opener. One thing that is quite interesting when looking at the Royals’ scoring in this series is that seven of their 11 runs have come in the eighth inning or later. For a Yankees bullpen that’s usually pretty good, it’s uncharacteristic for them to be giving up so many runs. Look for that to stop in this early afternoon start as this will be the lowest scoring game of the three in this series. Take the Under. 

Kansas City will hand the ball to Brad Keller, who admittedly has been struggling of late. He’s 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA/1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. But before that, he had gone 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over a five-start stretch. So there’s definitely some inconsistency here, but I think we’ll be getting the “good Keller” today. The Yankees are only averaging 3.8 runs per game at home this season with a .224 team batting average. In day games, they are averaging only 3.0 rpg while hitting .208 and the Under is 19-10. 

Jameson Taillon, like Keller, is coming off a rough last few starts. But here he’ll be facing a lineup that produces an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road. Again, the Royals have produced a total of four runs in the first seven innings of the two games here in the Bronx. Taillon has been much better this season when pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. 8* Under Royals/Yankees

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So the Rays lost to the Red Sox again yesterday. They are now 0-4 against their division rival in 2021 and trail them by 1.5 games in the standings. Yes, I had the Rays last night and it was their seventh straight loss overall. But I still believe they are the better team here. The game went into extra innings last night, so 9-5 is definitely a misleading final score. Boston did all of its scoring in two innings. So did Tampa Bay for that matter. But producing a five-run inning and four-run inning in the same game against this Rays pitching staff is hard to do and won’t happen again. I’m on TB for the second straight night. 

A big difference in last night’s game is that Boston was 6 for 10 with runners in scoring position while Tampa Bay was 3 for 17. That should correct itself tonight. Also, the news wasn’t all bad for the Rays on Tuesday as Walder Franco lived up to the hype in his big league debut, hitting a HR and a double. Speaking of misleading, the Red Sox have the division lead despite a +38 YTD run differential compared to the Rays’ +69. This is the worst stretch of the year for TB and they are due to turn things around. 

Rich Hill will look to play stopper tonight for the home team. The southpaw has a 0.983 WHIP in seven home starts this year. Hill is off B2B shaky outings (allowed 4 runs both times), but before that he’d allowed no more than 2 ER in eight consecutive starts. Boston 1-5 L6 vs. lefties. Going into yesterday, opponents were batting just .207 here at Tropicana Field. Garrett Richards somehow has a 3-0 TSR in his L3 starts for Boston despite a 6.91 ERA and 2.163 WHIP. He’s definitely due to lose just as TB is due to beat Boston. They Rays are 51-19 L70 as ML home favorites.  8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Astros/Orioles (7:05 ET): This series has pretty much gone as anticipated with Houston winning the first two games 10-2 and 3-1. I believe the series finale will be more like yesterday’s game in that it should be relatively low scoring. Obviously, the home team hasn’t done much scoring thus far. With just three runs in two games, the Orioles are “closing in” on being the AL’s lowest scoring team. They have lost 12 of their last 13 games and have scored three runs or fewer eight times in that stretch. Take the Under here.

Houston is baseball’s hottest team right now as they’ve won nine in a row. As I’d been predicting, they’ve overtaken Oakland in the AL West. The Astros +122 run differential is also baseball’s best. While a lot of that is due to being the highest scoring team in either league, don’t sleep on the fact that only three AL teams have allowed fewer runs. During this nine-game win streak, they allowed a total of 21 runs. In only one game did they allow more than three and that was when they allowed four on 6/16 vs. Texas. 

Jose Urquidy will start Wednesday for the Astros. He has a 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts, which is very good, and is coming off B2B quality starts. Urquidy has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. So look for him to easily shut down Baltimore’s anemic lineup. The Orioles only had two hits on Monday and didn’t have any until the eighth inning last night. The only thing giving the Orioles hope here is Tom Eshelman, who looked decent enough in his first start of 2021. Last Friday he gave up just one run on three hits in a game the Orioles actually won 7-1. 10* Under Astros/Orioles

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): At first, I was a little bit leery of taking the Mariners. After all, this is a ballclub that’s clearly overachieved in 2021. Despite a -46 run differential, they are two games above .500. But a quick look at Colorado’s road record is more than enough to alleviate any apprehension I have about the home team here. There are some dreadful road records in baseball this season, but none are worse than Colorado’s absolutely pathetic 5-27 mark. Given how the money line has moved this morning, I’m taking the M’s. 

Seattle has won four straight, so they’re hot. I made the mistake of fading them both Saturday and Sunday against Tampa Bay. Both games did go to extra innings, which I guess is fine for the Mariners as they are 7-1 in games this year that go past the ninth. They also have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories. That stuff is what made me leery here. But the win streak coupled with having Chris Flexen on the mound is enough to convince me that they can easily defeat MLB’s worst road team. 

Flexen has a 9-3 TSR and has been good at home where his ERA and WHIP are 2.16 and 1.032. Last Tuesday, he threw eight scoreless innings against Minnesota, a game Seattle won 10-0. It was the second time in his last three starts at home that Flexen went 7+ innings and did not give up a run. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has given up lots of runs as he has a 9.58 ERA in five starts. That ERA is even worse over the L3 starts (12.79) and he has a 2.447 WHIP to boot. Over the last three seasons, Freeland is 5-16 with a 6.16 ERA in 40 starts. 8* Seattle

8* Under Brewers/D’backs (9:40 ET): Arizona picked up a VERY rare win last night as they stunned Milwaukee 5-1. Not only did that victory partially avenge a four-game sweep they suffered out in Milwaukee earlier this month, it ended a heinous 17-game losing streak. How bad have things gotten in Arizona? Yesterday was their first win since June 1st. The team has won just six games since May 1st. They currently sit 32 games below .500 after losing 34 of their last 38 games. 

Given all of the above, we can’t possibly expect the D’backs to win two in a row. But I do like the Under Tuesday. Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona rotation last Thursday after missing five weeks with a forearm strain. You may recall that I took the Over in that game. Predictably, Gallen struggled in his first start back as he was facing the team with the best record in all of baseball. But I expect significant improvement here. Gallen is second on the staff in ERA and Milwaukee has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.212) while also ranking 29th in slugging and OPS. This is a much better matchup for Gallen. 

Because of that scuffling offense, I’m not particularly sold on the Brewers even as they are tied for the lead in their division. They have a negative run differential on the year. But I am sold on Tuesday’s starter Freddie Peralta, who is putting together a very solid 2021. His WHIP for the year is 0.822 and in three career starts vs. Arizona, he has a 0.87 ERA. Peralta has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. There’s been only one time all season that he’s allowed more than three. 8* Under Brewers/D’backs

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rays, who were swept up in Boston very early in the season. Despite that - and a current six-game losing streak - I believe TB to be the better of these two AL East clubs. As many of you already know, I lean heavily on run differential and in this area the Rays are significantly more dominant than the Red Sox. They have outscored opponents by 77 runs this season, fifth best in all of MLB, while Boston is only +34. Not only is that not the best run diff in the AL East, it’s actually third, also trailing Toronto. I think things set up well for a Tampa turnaround on Tuesday. 

It was certainly quite shocking to see the Rays get swept in a four-game series out in Seattle over the weekend. I consider them to be much better than the Mariners and even took them twice (Saturday & Sunday). Both times I took TB they ended up losing in extra innings. That was in addition to dropping the series opener by one run when Seattle scored two in the bottom of the ninth. The good news though is that Boston didn’t do much better over the weekend, dropping two of three in Kansas City. So it’s only a one-half game deficit that the Rays face coming into this big series. 

The big news on Tuesday is that Wander Franco, MLB.com’s #1 rated prospect, is set to make his big league debut for the Rays. Look for Franco to have an immediate impact on a lineup that has been struggling of late. He hit .315 this year down in Durham and .332 across his entire career in the minors. Eduardo Rodriguez is the starter for Boston and while the Red Sox are 3-0 his L3 starts, Rodriguez has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. He actually hasn’t won a decision since May 7th and has allowed 4+ runs in 6 of his L7 starts. His 5.44 career ERA vs. Tampa is his third highest vs. any AL opponent. For the Rays, expect the duo of Andrew Kittredge (likely opener) and Ryan Yarbrough to get the job done. 10* Tampa Bay

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Move over Red Sox-Yankees. This is now the preeminent rivalry in all of MLB. The Dodgers, though in second place in the division, are still the #1 team in the entire National League in my power ratings. The Padres aren’t too far behind, but they are behind. Four of the previous five head to head meetings have been won by San Diego, but three of those wins came by one run. I see this as a TREMENDOUS price on LA as it’s the first time all season that they are underdogs on the money line. Go and take them.

The Dodgers got to play Arizona this weekend and to the surprise of no one, that ended up being a three-game sweep. They only won by one run yesterday, but it marked the second straight game they scored nine runs. The team has a +103 run differential on the year, which is 2nd best in MLB (Houston). I like that Julio Urias is starting Monday and he has a 0.767 WHIP on the road where he’s gone 6-1 this season. The team is 6-1 in his L7 starts overall as well. 

Yu Darvish goes here for San Diego. While his 11-3 TSR is among the best in baseball, profitability took a big hit with losses to the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts. Both times he was -235 or higher on the ML. Urias’ numbers are very comparable to those of Darvish. Before they swept Cincinnati over the weekend, the Padres had dropped seven of eight games. I think the Dodgers are better and can’t pass them up at this price! 10* LA Dodgers

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cleveland avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep in Pittsburgh by winning 2-1 yesterday. In the last two series, the Tribe has faced the Pirates and the Orioles, arguably the two worst teams in the sport. They swept Baltimore, but the trek through the National League continues here with a visit to Wrigley Field. Obviously, any opponent would represent a “step up” in class after the last two series. But this one happens to be the best team in the NL Central and I see the Cubs gaining a measure of revenge for a pair of losses they suffered at Progressive Field last month. 

The Indians are 39-30 on the year, so they have a slightly better win percentage than the Cubs do. But the Tribe have overachieved to get there as they have a run differential of just +3. I don’t see this team, which has very little offensive firepower, even getting a Wild Card spot. The loss of the DH does them no favors as they’ve scored only five runs the previous two games. 

Due to injuries, the Indians’ starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Aaron Civale is now the “de facto ace” with Shane Bieber on the DL. While Civale has the nice team start record (11-3), his individual numbers aren’t all that great. His strikeout rate (6.9 per nine innings) is “nothing to write home about” and the ERA and WHIP are fairly comparable to what Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay has produced despite a 5-6 TSR. Civale has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four outings. Alzolay hasn’t started in two weeks, so he’s obviously well rested. After being beaten up on Friday & Saturday, the Cubs came back and avoided the sweep themselves Sunday with a 2-0 win over Miami. They are now 25-12 at home this season. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I said yesterday that I couldn’t see the Rays getting swept by the Mariners this weekend. Well, given that they lost Saturday’s game (6-5, in extra innings), I’m going to play the road team again as they look to avoid the sweep. The results of this series are certainly odd, given TB is one of the better teams in baseball (+77 run differential). But a season-high five-game losing skid has them now a half-game back of Boston in the AL East. It’s time for that streak to end. 

Seattle now has a winning record (37-36), but that’s quite misleading when you consider their YTD run differential is -50. The gap between their number of actual wins vs. expected wins (based on run differential) is the largest in all of MLB. What’s made them such a clear overachiever is their MLB-leading 16 one-run wins. They are also now 6-1 in extra inning games after Saturday. They were fortunate yesterday to get a second inning grand slam from J.P. Crawford. For the Rays, it was their third one-run loss in the last four games. 

It will be a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday. Shane McClanahan goes for the Rays. He’s been a bit unfortunate this year in that 70 percent of the runs he’s allowed have come with two outs. The team was 5-1 in his first six starts before going 0-3 the L3. I think, like his team, McClanahan gets back on track today. Seattle has the lowest team batting average at home in all of MLB. Marco Gonzales is 0-2 for the Mariners since coming off the DL. He faces a Rays lineup averaging 5.7 rpg on the road. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (1:05 ET): Toronto stormed back in the top of the ninth to “steal” one from Baltimore yesterday. The Jays were down 7-4 heading into the final frame and down to their final out when they exploded for a six-run rally. It’s been “that kind of year” for the Orioles, who have the worst record in the American League after dropping 9 of their last 10. It doesn’t figure to get any better on Sunday with Matt Harvey on the mound. Since May 7th, Harvey is 0-7 with a 12.00 ERA. 

So while Toronto needed to score late to get the win on Saturday, it’s very likely that they’ll be scoring in bunches early today. Harvey, who has failed to win any of his last eight starts, has given up five runs or more six of his last seven trips to the mound. It’s not like he’s lasting long either. The longest he’s gone during his winless streak is 4 ⅔ innings. He lasted a total of 6 ⅓ his L2 starts and allowed 13 runs. What’s really bad is that Harvey isn’t even giving up a ton of home runs. Everyone is just getting on base against him. He has a 2.391 WHIP his L7 starts. 

The good news for Baltimore is that they have scored seven runs in each of the first two games of this series. Their only win in the L10 games was the opener on Friday. The Orioles hit a season-high six home runs in yesterday’s game. Today, they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 6.11 ERA his L3 starts. While that’s mostly due to one poor start against Houston on 6/4, Ryu has allowed 5 HRs in those three starts. The Over has hit in four of his last five starts. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles

10* Tampa Bay (10:10 ET): The Rays have now dropped two straight in Seattle and four straight overall. That’s odd, considering how they lead the AL East and are a top five team in my own personal power ratings. I can’t see them getting swept by a subpar Mariners team that has a -51 YTD run differential, yet is somehow staying “afloat” with a .500 record. Tampa Bay is typically one of the better road teams in all of baseball and I’m counting on them getting the job done today against what I feel is a clearly inferior foe.

Just to “back up” a bit, Thursday’s series opener saw Seattle rally for two run in the bottom of the ninth to take the game 6-5. That rally carried right over into yday where the M’s batted around in a four-run 1st inning. That hot start essentially decided the game, which ended up being a 5-1 final. The Rays offense really couldn’t get anything going against Yusei Kikuchi, but I see them being a lot more productive at the plate tonight vs. Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.32 ERA at home this season for the Mariners. Yes, Gilbert has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts. But here he’s facing a team that going into yday was averaging a MLB-high 5.8 rpg on the road. 

Seattle’s hitters were very successful against the shift yesterday, which felt a bit lucky. Nine of the M’s 13 hits went to the opposite side of the field. Said Rays skipper Kevin Cash, “We probably got beat around by the shift about as much as I can recall in a long time.” I do not think that is going to happen again. First off, the Mariners’ team batting average at home this year is a woeful .203. Secondly, the Rays starter for Saturday (Josh Fleming) has a 0.953 WHIP in his five previous starts this season. Make no mistake about it, the Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Over A’s/Yankees (1:05 ET): It was a relatively low-scoring game between these teams yesterday as the A’s emerged victorious 5-3. That’s pretty much “par for the course” when A’s and Yanks hook up as, going back to 2019, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings. But it ISN’T “par for the course” from what we’ve seen from both clubs lately. Oakland had gone Over in five straight before yday’s win. The Yankees had gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games. I think we’ll see a higher scoring game Saturday afternoon. Take the Over.

Oakland continues to lead the AL West, although I have second place Houston #1 in my own personal power ratings right now. But there’s no denying that the A’s are hot, having won seven straight. That’s the longest active win streak in MLB right now. A big reason for the win streak is the bats. The A’s offense is averaging 6.3 rpg during the win streak, which is a very impressive number. Today they’ll face Domingo German, who just allowed 7 runs in his last start and that was against a NL lineup (no DH). In four career appearances vs. Oakland, German’s ERA is 6.05. 

The Yankees were coming off a three-game sweep of Toronto before losing yesterday. Eight of their last 11 games have seen 10 or more total runs scored. They’ll look to get back on track offensively here against Chris Bassitt, who admittedly has been pretty sharp in 2021. But Bassitt has never pitched at Yankees Stadium before and this is first time facing NY anywhere. His ERA is up over the L3 starts (4.32) as he’s allowed one HR in each outing. The A’s have won his L7 starts, but look for Bassitt not to be as sharp as usual Saturday. 8* Over A’s/Yankees

10* Over Tigers/Angels (9:38 ET): The home team took yesterday’s series opener by a score of 7-5. Scoring had actually been pretty tame until the 7th when Taylor Ward’s grand slam broke the game open. It was 7-1 at that point and while the Tigers were able to put four runs on the board in the final two innings, the rally ended up being futile. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Detroit as they’d previously swept the Royals in KC. Meanwhile, the Angels snapped a three-game losing skid as they’d previously been swept out in Oakland. They are now 4-0 L4 home games. 

But the streak that I’m more concerned with here is the Angels having now gone Over in seven straight. During this time, they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game while also giving up 6.0. They are also 11-1 Over their L12 games. They’ve played six home games in that stretch and averaged 7.7 rpg in them. Facing the struggling Jose Urena tonight, the Angels production at the plate should continue. Urena has a 7.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP his L3 starts and gave up eight runs while lasting only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out. It would be even better (for the Angels) if 3B Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup today. 

The Angels may need all the offense they can muster as Alex Cobb has been knocked around for five runs in each of his L2 starts. The Tigers come in having pounded out 10 or more hits in four consecutive games. The Over is 7-2 their last nine, so we’ve got both teams having been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Neither bullpen is good either (something we saw last night). The Over is 46-19-2 in the Angels’ last 67 home games and 7-0 (anywhere) if they scored 5+ runs in their last game. Detroit is 6-0 Over its L6 vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Tigers/Angels

8* Over Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): Even with Jose Berrios starting today’s series opener, Minnesota ought not to be too confident. This club is grossly underachieving in 2021. Priced as a 43-win team, the Twins’ record is just 27-41 as they are one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Back to Berrios, the team is 6-0 in his last six starts. But only a couple of those games have been low-scoring. In the four games since Berrios last pitched, the Twins have surrendered 10+ runs twice. Berrios has a 5.75 ERA in four previous starts vs. Texas. I see this one going Over the total.

Texas is glad to be back home as they’ve lost 19 of their last 20 road games. They are buried in last place in the AL West with a 25-43 record and considering how there’s already an 8.5-game gap between them and fourth place, expect this to be a cellar dweller for the rest of the season. Prior to yesterday’s off day, the Rangers dropped two in a row in Houston. The Over is 4-0-1 their L5 games, which includes a disastrous outing from tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, who allowed eight runs in 2 ⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last Friday. 

The Twins have allowed the most runs in the American League this season. So that’s some home for a Texas lineup that’s only topped four runs one time in its last nine games. I don’t see Berrios pitching as well as he did vs. Houston last Saturday where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP. He still gave up 2 HRs and five of his eight strikeouts came on called strikes. Minnesota, who also had Thursday off, beat Seattle 7-2 the last time they took the field. They are 17-3-1 Over their L21 after allowing two runs or less in the previous game. They are also 4-0 Over following an off day. Foltynewicz has been horrible for the Rangers with a 9.45 ERA and 1.799 WHIP his L3 starts. 8* Over Twins/Rangers

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): These two teams have been trending in different directions of late and surprisingly it’s Cincinnati that’s doing better. The Reds have won six in a row after sweeping both Colorado and Milwaukee. San Diego was just swept out in Colorado and is falling a bit off the pace in the rugged NL West. So this is a big weekend for the heavily hyped Padres and I see them coming through on Friday, led by starter Joe Musgrove. They are calling today “Re-Opening Day 2021” as it will be the first home game with full capacity this season. 

Back on May 29th, the Padres owned baseball’s best WL record. June has not been kind to them as they’ve gone 4-11 including the three straight losses out in Denver. But a return to Petco Park should help turn things around. Visiting teams average only 3.1 runs per game here while batting .199. Only two teams allow a fewer number of rpg than San Diego. Musgrove has a 2.82 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 12 starts, so he definitely deserves better than a 6-6 TSR. He has the franchise’s first ever no-hitter to his credit already in 2021. In his L6 starts, his ERA is 1.91 and his WHIP is 0.818. 

Wade Miley goes tonight for Cincy and he too has thrown a no-no this season. His numbers are fairly comparable to Musgrove’s, but quite as good. Overall, the Reds’ pitching staff can’t compare to San Diego’s. They are one of eight teams allowing 5.0 or more runs per game. It’s a nice run that they are on, but the last two wins were both 2-1. The Padres are 11-5 vs. LH starters, so I like them against the southpaw Miley. 10* San Diego

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): St. Louis is coming off a three-game sweep of Miami. They are 6-0 against the Marlins this season, but below .500 against everyone else and a -27 YTD run differential doesn’t speak well to their future prospects of maintaining a winning record. Note the Cards scored just seven runs in that series with the Marlins and only nine the last five games overall. They won the L2 games in the final at-bat. I think this team is a lot worse than the overall record shows. 

Furthermore, Thursday’s starter John Gant has been REALLY shaky of late with a 9.25 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. Gant has had a high WHIP all season (currently 1.651) so his TSR has always been a bit of a mirage. He lasted only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out and gave up five runs. Don’t be fooled by the fact he allowed just one hit. He walked five batters. The start before that saw Gant allow seven runs in four innings. Atlanta is averaging a solid 5.4 runs per game at home, so they should do some damage at the plate tonight. 

Coming off B2B 10-8 losses to Boston, the Braves hand the baseball to Charlie Morton here. Facing St. Louis rather than the Red Sox is a break for Morton. I say that knowing full well that Morton has a poor career record vs the Cardinals. But there is the fact Atlanta scored 16 runs in B2B losses while St. Louis has scored just seven runs total in three straight wins. The Cardinals are 2-9 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. I like the Braves a lot in this spot. 7* Atlanta

8* Over D’backs/Giants (3:45 ET): San Francisco is looking to finish off a four-game sweep here. They’ve beaten Arizona by scores of 5-2, 9-8 and 13-7 thus far. There’s been an obvious increase in overall scoring each day and while that may not hold true again this afternoon, I still think this one goes Over the total. 

Arizona is absolutely atrocious. They’ve lost 22 straight road games, equaling a MLB record. So you know the hitters will be pressing today. It’s not just the road where this team struggles, however. They’ve lost 36 of their last 41 overall games, including 27 of the last 29. There's some optimism for today in that Zac Gallen, who is second on the team in ERA, returns to start Thursday’s game. But after missing more than a month, Gallen may not be as effective as he once was. I certainly see him giving up some runs to a SF lineup that is averaging 9 runs and 13 hits per game in this series.

Kevin Gausman has pretty much been “lights out” for the Giants this year. The righty is 7-1 in 13 starts with a 1.43 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. His numbers get even better at home and over his L3 starts. But Arizona has seen him before this year, back on May 25th, so expect them to fare better than they did that first time around. In day games, the D’backs are averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. But over the L6 games, they are allowing an average of 8.5 rpg! That alone would send this one Over the total. 8* Over D’backs/Giants

8* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): I had the Under when these two teams played last night. Most probably pushed (closing number was 9.0), but I was fortunate enough to get it at 9.5. I anticipate today’s game to be even lower-scoring. Cleveland got five of its seven runs last night in one inning. As per usual, there was an error involved with Baltimore. They’ve committed six in the two games here at Progressive Field thus far, including FOUR yesterday. That can’t continue even if the team’s road losing streak (now at 17 games) is likely to. 

The Orioles do have some hope though in that the Indians are not a great offensive ballclub. Seven runs is a lot for them and highly unlikely to be repeated. They had just five hits in Monday’s opener and rank 28th in all of MLB in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, who blanked them for five innings in a 3-1 Baltimore win earlier this month. Akin has a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season, so look for him to give his team a chance here. 

But Baltimore scoring many runs off Indians’ starter Aaron Civale seems unlikely. First off, the Orioles have scored a grand total of 13 runs during an overall six-game losing streak. They have just 23 total hits during that same span. Civale just threw eight shutout frames vs. Seattle last Friday and gave up just one hit. He finished with 11 strikeouts. Four of his last five starts have stayed Under. (All three Akin starts have gone Under as well). The Under is 20-8-1 the L29 meetings between these teams, including 10-2 here in Cleveland. 8* Under Orioles/Indians

10* Miami (1:15 ET): The Marlins have yet to defeat the Cardinals in 2021. Last night’s 2-1 loss leaves them 0-5 in the head to head series. Both games in the current three-game series have seen the Fish blow an early lead and lose in low-scoring fashion. Today will mark the last opportunity to defeat St. Louis this season. As rough as things have been for Miami of late, I see them avoiding the sweep here. They’ve got the edge in today’s starting pitching matchup and that’s why they are favored. 

Three hits will typically NOT get the job done. That’s how many Miami had Tuesday night. Yet they were still tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, which is when Paul Goldschmidt hit a walk-off HR for the Cards. I do see the Marlins lineup “waking up” today, due to facing Johan Oviedo, who has struggled in his six starts this season. He has a 6.85 ERA and 1.648 WHIP. Most importantly, he has a 1-5 TSR. Oviedo has yet to pitch more than five innings in any 2021 start and is still winless in his big league career. 

St. Louis entered this series having dropped 11 of 13. Considering their -28 run differential, they should feel lucky to be a game over .500. Miami is nine games below .500, but has a run differential of +3. I know the Marlins have really struggled on the road as of late, but today’s starter Sandy Alacantara is someone they can lean on. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts and gone 6+ innings each of his last five trips to the mound. Honestly, Miami is the better team and has the better starter going Wednesday. 10* Miami

9* Houston (8:10 ET): These teams have met seven times so far in 2021. The home team is 7-0. I expect that trend to continue Tuesday as the Astros look to avenge a three-game sweep that transpired up in Arlington last month. That sweep certainly surprised me as I consider Houston to be the class of the AL West. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - just look at the respective run differentials for them and Oakland. It’s only a matter of time before the ‘Stros move into first place in their division.

Texas is in last place in the AL West and the gap between them and fourth place is already pretty big. They’re staring at a seven-game difference, which is the third largest gap between fourth and fifth place in any division. Since sweeping the Astros last month, they’ve dropped 14 of 17 overall. Like most bad teams, the Rangers really struggle on the road where they are 10-25 for the year. Even worse is how they’ve performed after a day off; 0-8 this season and 8-32 since the start of 2019. 

Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.15 ERA, 1.005 WHIP) might give the Rangers some hope heading into this series opener, but Lance McCullers has been quite good for the Astros as well. McCullers has allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, two of them vs. Texas. He hasn’t pitched since facing the Rangers on 5/21 as he’ll be coming off the 10-day DL (shoulder discomfort). I think he’ll do just fine here against a lineup that’s failed to score more than four runs in six of its last seven games. Houston is off a dominant 14-3 win in Minnesota on Sunday (I had ‘em) and should easily avenge that prior sweep tonight. 9* Houston

10* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): The two starting pitchers for tonight may seem like “question marks” (as far as the Under is concerned), but the Orioles and Indians combined for only seven runs Monday. Cleveland won 4-3, thanks in part to a pair of Baltimore errors in the field. For the Orioles, the loss was nothing new. They are now 0-16 their L16 road games as this season has already started to get away from them. They are 22-43 overall, destined for last place in the division and I rate them as the worst team in the American League. 

Cleveland is seven games above .500 and second in the Central, although they do have a negative run differential. So I’m not sold on them, especially with an offense that ranks 28th in both batting average and OBP. They had only five hits yesterday. A three-run first inning saw them benefit from a wild pitch and HBP. They only scored in the sixth after two Orioles’ errors. Matt Harvey, who starts today for Baltimore, has struggled of late. But given the Indians’ season-long struggles at the plate, I give him a good shot at resembling the pitcher who produced a 3.60 ERA his first seven starts. 

Baltimore also had just five hits in Monday’s game. They have scored only 11 runs total in the past five games. So they are an ideal opponent for Cleveland, who had gone Over in six of seven coming into this series, to start going Under. The Tribe is also having to put together a patchwork starting rotation. That means Cal Quantrill is getting the nod Tuesday. He was roughed up badly by Baltimore on June 6th, but I expect him to pitch much better tonight. The Under is 36-17-1 the L54 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Orioles/Indians

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After exchanging 12-1 decisions with Texas on Friday & Saturday, the Dodgers ended up taking the series with a 5-3 win yesterday. They’ve now won five of their last six games. They may not have the best record, but for my money the defending World Series Champs remain the class of the NL. They have a +91 run differential for the season and yday’s win should not have been as close as it ended up being. The Dodgers had a 5-0 lead entering the ninth inning, but a rare bullpen breakdown turned it into a much closer affair than it needed to be.

Philadelphia comes in on a four-game win streak as they just took two from the Yankees, at home, over the weekend. The win streak has the Phillies a game above .500, but I don’t see this as a playoff caliber club by any means. An 11-19 road record is a big reason why I feel their chances of success tonight are rather dubious. This is their longest win streak since early May when they won five in a row. It’s a good time to “sell high” on the Phils right now as I simply believe they are outclassed in a matchup with the mighty Dodgers. 

Tony Gonsolin did not have a strong 2021 debut for LA. He got only five outs, though the team still ended up winning the game 2-1. He figures to get a decent amount of support here as the Dodgers average a solid 5.5 runs per game at home. Spencer Howard starts here for Philly. He’s made three starts so far, none of them going longer than four innings. So there’s a very strong likelihood that this one comes down to the bullpens. Despite what happened Sunday, the Dodgers are better in that area. Coming off a two-game sweep of the Yankees at home, this is a natural letdown spot for the Phillies and it doesn’t help that they’re facing the Dodgers. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (2:10 ET): I had the Under in this matchup last night. That it came in was not a surprise, but the Twins being the 5-2 winners did catch me a bit “off-guard.” As I’ve said many times previous to this (including in yday’s analysis), I fully expect Houston to overtake Oakland in the American League West. Just look at the respective run differentials! Only three teams in all of MLB have better YTD run differentials than the Astros (White Sox, Dodgers, Rays). So I’m calling for them to bounce back Sunday. 

Handing the baseball to Framber Valdez seems like a good idea seeing as he’s posted a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP thus far. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but considering the two teams he’s faced (Padres, Red Sox), those numbers are impressive. In four career regular season appearances vs. the Twins, Valdez has a 1.86 ERA. He also beat them in the playoffs last year when he threw five shutout innings of relief. The Astos are 3-0 off a loss in June, scoring 25 runs in the three games. So Valdez can probably count on some decent run support here as well. 

Michael Pineda will oppose Valdez on Sunday. He has a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Minnesota has been especially bad off a win this season (just 9-15), so history REALLY supports the road team bouncing back today. The Twins have lost Pineda’s last two starts and he didn’t really give them much, going just 4 ⅓  and 3 innings. He had just three strikeouts in the two games. The Twins are 0-6 after allowing 2 runs or less. 8* Houston

10* Under Astros/Twins (7:15 ET): I continue to believe it’s just a “matter of time” before the Astros overtake the A’s in the AL West. Just look at those respective run differentials as Houston has outscored opponents by 78 runs this season (#3 in MLB) while Oakland is only +7. But for now, the ‘Stros only need to concern themselves with Minnesota, a team that has been surprisingly poor in 2021 and currently occupies last place in the AL Central. Houston won the opener Friday by a score of 6-4. I look for tonight’s game to be lower-scoring. Take the Under.

Given manager Dusty Baker’s comments, you might be surprised that the Astros came out ahead Friday. "Everybody was walking around starry-eyed early in the game," Baker said. "You could see they were fatigued.” Baker was referring to the fact his team did not arrive in Minnesota until the early hours of Friday morning after suffering a 12-8 loss to Boston on Thursday. But they’ve now won five of seven and have a hot pitcher on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. All three have also gone Under the total. 

Minnesota also has a starter going tonight that has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Jose Berrios’ numbers aren’t quite as good as Garcia’s, but he actually has a 5-0 TSR going back to May 15th. Houston’s bats have been pretty hot the last week, but could cool off for the reasons Baker alluded to in the above comments. Twins’ games are also due for an overall decrease in scoring and I think we’ve got the right pitching matchup for it tonight. Garcia, like Berrios, also has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and his ERA during that time is 1.86. He’s allowed just six runs in 29 IP. 10* Under Astros/Twins

8* Under Padres/Mets (4:10 ET): These teams have played each other five times this month. None of the games have seen more than eight total runs scored and there have been some excellent individual pitching efforts along the way. The incomparable Jacob deGrom turned in one of them last night. Before leaving due to some tendinitis (he’s believed to be fine), deGrom faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings, allowing just one hit in the process. The Mets won the game 3-2 as they continue to be a very good home team. They are 16-5 in 2021 at Citi Field where they are giving up just 1.9 rpg.

The fact we are not seeing many runs scored when these teams hook up should not be a surprise at all. I already mentioned how “stingy” the Mets have been here at home. Overall, they are allowing the second fewest number of runs per game in baseball. San Diego is #1 at 3.4 rpg allowed. There should be two more strong outings from tonight’s starters Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Marcus Stroman (Mets). Both pitched in the previous series between the teams and did well. Musgrove allowed just three runs in five innings (lost to deGrom) while Stroman allowed only an unearned run in 6 ⅔ innings of work. 

Despite losing to the Mets his last time out, Musgrove is having a great year. He threw the franchise’s no-hitter back on April 9th. There have been only two times when he allowed more than three runs this season and both were against the Giants. The Under easily hit when faced deGrom last weekend as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman is coming off four consecutive quality outings and has the 10th lowest ERA in the National League. The Padres have scored a grand total of four runs in their last three games. Should be another pitcher’s duel on Saturday. 8* Under Padres/Mets

10* Over White Sox/Tigers (7:10 ET): We’ve got the best AL Central team against arguably the worst in this three game series. The White Sox have raced to the top of their division with a +89 run differential (which is tied with the Dodgers for the best in all of MLB). They are off a successful series with the Blue Jays where they took two of the three. The series before that saw them take three of four from these Tigers. Detroit responded by taking two of three from Seattle this week, but they still have a -54 YTD run differential. 

This is an immediate rematch between the two starting pitchers, who just faced one another last week in Chicago. It ended up being a 4-3 final, the Tigers’ lone win of the series, when Lucas Giolito of the White Sox went against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers on June 5th. The Tigers actually homered three times off Giolito, so you would have thought they’d score more than four runs. Their scoring definitely picked up in the Mariners series with 19 runs scored in the three games. Giolito has a 5.11 ERA on the road, so I expect the Tigers to have success against him yet again. 

The White Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. I can’t imagine Skubal pitching as well in this spot as he did vs. the Sox last Saturday when he struck out 11 in five innings. He’s also not known for pitching very deep into games. Only twice this season has he gone a full six innings. The Tigers’ bullpen is not good (1.51 WHIP). Back to Giolito, the number of home runs he’s allowed in 12 starts this season (13) is concerning. The White Sox are 8-2 Over as road favorites. 10* Over White Sox/Twins

8* Over Mariners/Indians (7:10 ET): Even though I won with them on Wednesday, I don’t think Seattle is very good. They lost two of three in Detroit and now own the worst run differential in the American League West. Their overall record (31-33) isn’t that bad, but is being propped up by an AL-high 13 one-run victories. When they had a better record, I considered it fortunate and now we’re seeing the team slip, which I expect will continue. Run differential is typically a strong predictor of future outcomes. 

Cleveland has also overachieved based on their YTD run differential (-12). They are five games above .500 despite being outscored on the year and only 4.5 games behind the vastly superior White Sox. The Indians are basically who I thought they’d be in 2021, a team that will finish with a winning record but not make the postseason. The team is coming off four straight high scoring games (all Overs), a stretch where they scored 27 runs but allowed 31. They won two and lost two. 

Aaron Civale starts the season opener for the Tribe. He’s allowed 4 runs in B2B starts and has given up five home runs. His lone career start vs. Seattle, which was earlier this year, didn’t go so well as he surrendered five runs in 6 ⅔ IP. Justin Dunn comes off the DL to start for the Mariners today. He’d previously pitched well, but may struggle here after dealing with a shoulder issue. Considering he’s never gone a full six innings this year, don’t expect Dunn to here. Seattle gives up 5.4 rpg on the road and is 7-1 Over its L8 games in Cleveland. 8* Over Mariners/Indians

7* Miami (7:10 ET): The Rockies and Marlins came into the National League together back in 1993. You have to call Miami the more “successful” franchise as they’ve won a pair of World Series (1997, 2003), although Colorado has the slightly better all-time win percentage. Last season was actually just the third time in their history that Miami made the playoffs while Colorado has five all-time playoff appearances. But the Rockies have never won a division title and their last playoff series win came in 2007 (when they made it to their only WS). 

Recently, things haven’t gone well for either team. Miami has lost 10 of 12 overall and is now last in the NL East. This despite a YTD run differential of just -2. Colorado did win yesterday’s game 4-3, but the numbers just don’t add up for them to get another victory today. They have just FIVE road wins all season and are 0-9 as a road underdog of +175 to +250. They lost Tuesday’s series opener, 6-2, as an underdog in that very price range. Entering yesterday, the team batting average on the road was below .200.

Making matters worse for the Rockies is that they’ll have to face Trevor Rogers tonight. Rogers has been “lights out” this season with a 1.97 ERA in 12 starts. He’s allowed three runs or less in every start! Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 6.20 ERA on the road for Colorado, so I have a hard time believing he can turn this into a pitcher’s duel. Considering the Rockies’ road record (5-23), it’s VERY difficult to see them winning two in a row here. I know Miami has been struggling, but this looks to be among the easiest matchups they’ve had all season. 7* Miami