10* Under A's/Cardinals (8:15 ET): The Cardinals kind of "owe me" here after their four-run ninth inning cost me an Under bet Sunday night. Of course, their four runs came on the heels of the Angels also scoring four times in the top half of the frame! But spite isn't the only motivating factor in this play for Tuesday. As was the case w/ the Angels over the weekend, Oakland loses its designated hitter here as it's a NL park, so expect some dropoff from a team currently averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road.  Take the Under here. 

Jack Flaherty goes tonight for St. Louis. Like Miles Mikolas (who started Sunday's game), Flaherty is a much better pitcher here at Busch Stadium. His ERA and WHIP at home are 2.49 and 0.83 as opposed to 6.68 and 1.663 on the road. That's quite the split there. You should also note that the Cards have been shut out three different times w/ Flaherty starting, the most recent being his last time out which was here at home (6-0 loss to the Marlins). Flaherty allowed three runs over seven innings that day, so don't blame him for the setback. Also, in its last eight games, St. Louis has scored more than five runs only one time. 

Oakland's Chris Bassitt has pitched pretty well this season, giving up more than 3 ER in only ONE of his 11 starts. That's pretty impressive as is a 3.07 ERA and 1.091 WHIP on the road. Like Flaherty at home, Bassitt tends to pitch better on the road. So we should be getting the "best of both starting pitchers" Tuesday. In its last series, Oakland managed only 14 runs in four games. The Under is 12-3 the L15 games here in St. Louis and 8-1 their last nine series openers. The Under is also 11-4-1 the L16 times they've hosted an American League team. Low-scoring game tonight. 10* Under A's/Cardinals

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (7:10 ET): So Max Scherzer certainly seems to have "regained" his mojo. Not that he ever really lost it, but him starting the year w/ a 2-10 team start record seemed rather unfathomable. He's since won all four starts in June and has been rather dominant in doing so. In 29 innings of work, Scherzer has allowed just three runs on 16 hits! Two of those three runs allowed were solo home runs. He also has 44 strikeouts during this time. Miami is a team he's handled well throughout his career (12-4, 3.20 ERA), so expect Scherzer to be his usual dominant self on Tuesday. 

But Scherzer isn't the only pitcher I expect to throw well tonight. Miami's Trevor Richards might also have a losing TSR, but like Scherzer he's still pitched well. In five of his last six starts, Richards has allowe 1 or 0 ER. He faced the Nationals earlier in the year and it was a quality outing as he gave up only three runs in 6 1/3. Par for the course though, Miami didn't score any runs in that game and lost 5-0. The Marlins are the NL's lowest scoring team mind you and only average 3.2 runs per game here at home. I think it should be pretty obvious by now which way I am going.

The fact Washington is 1-9 following an off-day is enough to scare me off of them, especially given the current market price. But the Under looks to be a safe bet given the two starting pitchers. Yes, Scherzer does have an 0-2 TSR this year against the Marlins. But he allowed just one run the last time he faced them and this particular edition of the Marlins is very weak offensively (see above). Scherzer has gone 11 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than three runs. I expect a good old fashioned pitchers duel here. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

8* Over Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): The Phillies beat the Mets 13-7 yday and in the process snapped a six-game losing streak. In those six consecutive losses, they scored a grand total of 14 runs. So they nearly doubled that last night and also finished w/ a season-high in 19 hits. It may not be quite the same level of offense here on Tuesday, but it won't need to be as both teams showed yday when they combined for 20 runs. The Mets are now slouch offensively on the road as they average 5.6 runs per game, which is far more than they average at Citi Field! This one has "Over" written all over it.

For the 1st time all season, Jake Arrieta has delivered B2B quality starts for the Phillies. Given that information, what's the chance he makes it three in a row? This will be the Mets third time seeing Arrieta this season. He has pitched reasonably well in the two prior starts, but my thinking is that the third time may very well be the charm here for the Mets. Let's not lose sight of the fact they scored 7 runs on 15 hits last night. Despite coming off B2B quality starts, Arrieta still has a 4.54 ERA and 1.464 WHIP his L7 starts overall. I think it may not be a great night for him. 

Speaking of "not great nights," that's how you could describe Walker Lockett's start last Monday for the Mets. Starting for the 1st time all year, Lockett was charged with six runs (on five hits) and lasted only 2 1/3 innings. That left him with an unsightly 23.18 ERA and 2.575 WHIP. The Phillies offense is due to continue turning things around here. Meanwhile, the Over is 8-1-2 the L11 times the Mets have been off a loss. The Over is also 5-2 the last seven times Arrieta has started at home against a team w/ a losing record. The Mets are 37-42 on the season. 8* Over Mets/Phillies

8* Under Rockies/Giants (10:05 ET): It's been established that when you take Colorado outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field, their offensive production experiences a rather dramatic decrease. Just to illustrate, they are averaging a whopping 6.9 runs per game at Coors, a full rpg more than any other team averages in its home park. On the road, the Rockies are scoring only 4.5 rpg. That's the biggest home vs. road split in the league obviously. Matched up w/ a division foe that has its own issues scoring (no matter where it plays) the Under is the clear call here.

San Francisco had gone Over in five straight games prior to yday's 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. The Giants were actually in a position to sweep the three game series (on the road!) before losing Sunday. But let's not mistake this for a good team, okay? The Giants own the NL's worst run differential (-90) and have scored the second fewest runs in the league. They are 28th overall in MLB in runs scored, 30th (last) in team batting average and 29th in OPS. I don't expect them to score many runs today. The last time they hosted Colorado, three of the four games stayed Under (w/ one push). 

Drew Pomeranz is off a bad start for the Giants as he allowed seven runs to the Dodgers last Wednesday. But in the two starts before that one, he allowed ZERO earned runs in 10 IP. Both of those starts came at home while the last one was in LA. Colorado counters w/ Jon Gray, who is off a quality start in Arizona where he surrendered only two runs (one unearned) in 6 IP. The start before that, he had 10 K's and no walks. Pomeranz has a 1.89 ERA in five career starts vs. Colorado. Gray hasn't been nearly as successful against SF, but this is a much weaker team than those previous editions. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

9* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. This one is all about revenge for Cleveland as the Royals shockingly swept them out at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for the Tribe to gain a measure of payback Monday. 

The Indians have won this division three straight years. But by standing pat this past offseason, it seems they have slipped a bit. Minnesota is far out in front, but a wise decision has been made to start relying on some youth as recent callups have paid off. Guys like Oscar Mercado and Bobby Bradley are producing, resulting in the team now being a season-best seven games over .500. Tonight they'll have Adam Plutko on the mound and he's pitched well in five previous starts, save for one forgettable outing. His L3 starts have produced a 0.98 WHIP. If he can work on limiting the home run ball, he'll be a solid member of this rotation. 

Kansas City happens to be bottom five in all of baseball in # of HR's hit, so Plutko seems good in that regard. As for the Indians' hitters, they should feast on Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. The Royals have lost the last five times Keller has started, not that it's all his fault, as he's been provided little in the way of run support. The offense has scored a grand total of six runs in those five losses, twice getting shutout and never scoring more than three in any one game. The Tribe gets its revenge. 9* Cleveland

8* Over Royals/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have done quite well for themselves of late, winning 8 of their last 10. Now it should be noted that includes a perfect 6-0 record against a really bad Detroit team, but the next opponent happens to be below even the Tigers in the AL Central standings. That is of course Kansas City, who comes in at 27-51 overall, including 11-26 on the road. Cleveland is out for revenge here as the Royals shockingly swept them at Kauffman Stadium back in April. Look for this game to go Over the total. 

Indians' hitters should feast on KC starter Brad Keller, who gave up seven runs his last outing and lasted only four innings. For the year, Keller has a 4.45 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 16 starts. The Royals are 4-12 in those games. His numbers get even worse on the road where he has a 2-8 team start record. That last start (where he allowed 7 runs) came on the road against Seattle. Keller allowed multiple HR's. Cleveland's offense has begun to produce a bit more of late as they've scored 7+ runs in four of their last six games. 

Adam Plutko goes here for the Indians and while he's pitched well, there was one bad outing (allowed 7 runs to Tampa Bay). The home run ball has been a bit of a problem for Plutko as he's surrendered a total of nine in his five starts, including four in that loss to Tampa Bay. While I do think the Indians win here, it'll have to come in high-scoring fashion. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Royals' last five road games and is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times they've been off a win (beat Minnesota 6-1 on Sunday). 8* Over Royals/Indians

8* Boston (7:10 ET): This game immediately caught my eye for the line being so low. There obviously had to be a reason that Boston wasn't closer to -200 on the ML and that reason is that Lucas Giolito is starting for the White Sox. Giolito has been excellent in 2019 w/ a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. But he did give up a season-high six runs in his last outing and pitches for - pretty clearly - the inferior team in this matchup. I know it wasn't a good weekend for Boston (dropped two of three to Toronto), but they'll bounce back tonight at Fenway Park. 

I wrote about the White Sox overachieving ways in my analysis for their Saturday matchup w/ Texas. They ended up losing that game 6-5 and then they lost again Sunday 7-4. Despite being within cracking distance of .500 (36-39), this is a team w/ a YTD run differential of -62. That's worse than the last place Royals, who are 27-51 on the season. The gap between Chicago's actual (36) and expected (31) win total is actually tied for the largest in all of MLB w/ the latter number being based off their season run differential. Bottom line is that this is a much WORSE team than the record shows. 

The Red Sox season got off to a slow start, but they've bounced back to get into Wild Card position and should be fine the rest of the way. Yes, they just dropped two of three (at home!) to a bad Toronto team, blowing a 6-0 in one of the losses. But they've still won 8 of their last 11 and have a run differential of +51 (5th best in AL) for the year. Starting tonight will be Eduardo Rodriguez, the team leader in wins (8) and he has an 11-4 TSR overall. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. He was on the right side of a 15-2 decision against Chicago last month, part of a series that saw the Red Sox take three of the four games. 8* Boston

8* Under White Sox/Red Sox (7:10 ET): I also like this game to stay Under. While I do firmly believe Boston is going to win, scoring runs off Giolito has proven easier said than done this year. He did give up a season-high six in his last outing, which came at an unfamiliar venue (Wrigley Field). Before that, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive starts, all against American League opponents. One of those nine starts came against Boston, whom he held to three runs in five innings. The Under is still 7-2 his L9 starts overall. 

Like I said in the other writeup, Rodriguez is the team leader in wins for Boston and should pitch well here. He is 2-0 w/ a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts vs. the White Sox. The Red Sox scored only one run yday in a loss to Toronto. This win will have to come in low-scoring fashion as the Under is 5-1 following the L6 times Boston has scored two runs or less their previous game. 8* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Under Angels/Cardinals (7:05 ET): On Friday, I used the Under in this matchup as my *10* Total of the Week. It won, as did St. Louis by a final score of 5-1. The Cardinals again came up victorious Saturday afternoon, this time a little closer, as it was a 4-2 final. They'll go for the three-game sweep on Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN) against an Angels team that had been hitting the ball well coming into this series. But the loss of the DH (NL rules) has proven to be pretty significant so far as they've scored only three runs total on St. Louis' pitching. Take the Under again in this one. 

Miles Mikolas will get the start here for the Redbirds and boy does he enjoy pitching at Busch Stadium. Well, I should clarify - he pitches well here. His TSR is only 5-3 at home, but he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.887 WHIP, so the results probably should be a bit better. Last time out, Mikolas tossed six shutout innings (here at home) at the expense of Miami. The home vs. road splits Mikolas has been experiencing are very apparent when you look at his L4 starts. He's faced Miami twice and the Cubs twice, once at home and once on the road vs each. The two home starts have seen him allow just 1 run in 13 IP. The two on the road saw him allow 8 runs in 9 IP. 

Tyler Skaggs will go tonight for the Angels and he has been one of the top Under pitchers in all of baseball this year. The Under is 10-2 in all Skaggs' starts, which may seem odd as he doesn't have the most overwhelming numbers. But his offense has really failed to support him as there's been only one time all season where the Angels scored more than five runs in a game started by Skaggs. That said, Skaggs was excellent his last time out in holding Toronto to 1 run on 3 hits in 7 1/3 IP. This should be another low-scoring game. 8* Under Angels/Cardinals

8* Under Orioles/Mariners (4:10 ET): Two teams that are accustomed to high scoring games, I believe, are poised to go Under on Sunday. Baltimore and Seattle are last and second to last respectively when it comes to runs allowed this year. The Orioles have allowed 481 in 77 games (6.2 per game) while Seattle has given up 495 in 81 games (6.1 per game). It was Baltimore winning on the scoreboard yesterday, 8-4, which was another Over for Seattle as they are now a shocking 54-22-5 Over in all games this season. But I think today's game will be different. Take the Under. 

Friday's game (won 10-9 by Seattle) was also high scoring. But the opener of the series (back on Thursday) wasn't as the Mariners prevailed that day by a score of 5-2. The first two games of this series aside, Seattle's offensive numbers have really tapered off since a hot start to the season. Today they'll be facing a pitcher they've never seen before, Gabriel Ynoa, who is still winless and off the worst of his five starts this season. But Yano's WHIP is still respectable and he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the first four outings. 

By winning Saturday, Baltimore snapped an ugly 10-game losing streak. This is (again) the worst team in baseball and I don't see them scoring eight runs again like they did yday. They've actually scored a total of 17 the L2 games, which is a really high number for them. I'll be the first to admit that Mariners' starter Yusei Kikuchi does not have impressive numbers on the season. But the Orioles have never faced him before, which is a slight advantage for the pitcher. The eight runs scored yday for Baltimore came on only eight hits. They're still only batting .215 the L7 games and scoring 3.5 rpg. 8* Under Orioles/Mariners

10* San Diego (1:35 ET): These are two clubs that have found their way onto my mostly FADE list, but by rule somebody's got to win Sunday. The first two games of the series have gone to the Pirates, but don't let that fool you into thinking they are necessarily the better team here. Even after those wins, the Bucs' YTD run differential is still -73, second worst in the entire National League. What's interesting here is the Padres are 0-3 this season as road faves of -125 to -175. They'd been in that role just TWICE the previous two seasons. I think it speaks volumes that they are the betting favorite going into Sunday. Pittsburgh is 0-2 this year as a home dog of +125 to +175. 

Starting pitching obviously has the biggest influence on the line and this is where you can see why San Diego is favored this afternoon. Joey Lucchesi has been very good for the Padres so far, most notably his last time out when he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Milwaukee. One might try an make the argument that Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault has turned the corner seeing as he too didn't allow any runs in his last outing. But he was quite fortunate not to as he allowed eight hits in six innings. He was also facing Miami, the lowest scoring team in the N.L. 

Neither of these teams are as good as their records, which frankly are pedestrian at best anyway. Yet I feel Pittsburgh's "true" level of play this year is further below their WL record than is the case w/ San Diego. The Padres are a league-leading 18-8 in one-run games this year. They are also 4-1 in Lucchesi's last five starts. Lucchesi has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts, one of those against Pittsburgh where he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. That ended up being a hard-luck loss, but he also threw five shutout innings of one-hit ball in his lone start vs. Pittsburgh last year. While Lucchesi hasn't won a decision on the road this year, Brault hasn't won one at home either. 10* San Diego

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Diamondbacks appear to be headed south as they've lost five in a row, the last four all coming here at Chase Field to division rivals. Last night saw the Giants exact some revenge against them (for a three-game sweep by Arizona in SF last month) w/ an 11-5 win. These NL West foes have now met seven times in 2019 and the last six have all seen the road team prevail. I'm going to call for that streak - and the D'backs losing skid - to both come to an end Saturday night as Zack Godley returns to a starting rotation in dire need of some help. 

Godley has not started in a month. The last time he started was against ... San Francisco. The D'backs actually lost the game, 8-5, with Godley allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings. That was actually the start of the six-game win streak by the road team in this rivalry. The Giants have beaten the D'backs three straight times at Chase Field where Arizona has curiously struggled this season (only 14-20). This all being said, Godley's recent work out of the bullpen has been mostly good (w/ the exception of his last appearance!) and was enough to justify him starting this game. It may not be a long outing, but that's okay. 

San Francisco has the worst run differential in the National League (-92). So even though they are already in last place (32-42), really things could - and should - be worse. Run differential says this is a 27-win team as only Baltimore and Detroit have been outscored more this season. Arizona, despite being a game under .500, actually sports a run differential of +41. That is the 5th best differential in the NL! Rookie Tyler Beede gets the start here for the Giants. He's coming off a surprisingly strong effort against the Dodgers earlier this week, but still has a 6.75 ERA and 1.708 WHIP on the year. He - and the Giants - revert back to "usual" form tonight, which is to say they'll lose. They are just 11-20 off a win this season. 8* Arizona 

7* Texas (9:05 ET): This looks to be one of the more sizable pitching mismatches I've seen in recent weeks w/ Lance Lynn going up against Omar Despaigne. That's a good thing for the Rangers, who are looking to bounce back from last night's surprising 5-4 defeat (game went 10 innings). The White Sox have certainly improved from LY's 100-loss debacle, but don't let their 36-37 record fool you into thinking they're ready to start competing for a Wild Card spot. This is a team that's been outscored by 58 runs this season, a number nearly identical to last place Kansas City! Look for Texas to bounce back here behind Lynn. 

The Rangers have also been a surprise this season, although they look to be more legitimate (+27 run differential) and are a Wild Card contender. They enter Saturday just 1.5 games back of Boston for the 2nd WC spot in the American League. Lynn has been a real catalyst in the team's surprising start as he's made eight straight quality starts and has a 3.17 ERA his L10. He's coming off a real gem too as he held Cleveland to one run (a solo HR) over seven innings and had nine strikeouts. Lynn has a 2.49 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox, so I think he's poised for another strong effort tonight. 

Despaigne has made two starts since being called up from Triple-A Charlotte. The last one went rather poorly as he allowed seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Now that was against the Yankees, but the Rangers happen to be one of only three teams averaging more runs per game than the Bronx Bombers. Again, I simply do not have the same optimistic outlook that others may have w/ this White Sox team. They now own the largest gap between expected and actual wins (-6) in all of baseball. Run differential says they're a 30-win team. 7* Texas

10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (7:15 ET): I'm going Over here despite the presence of Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound for the Dodgers. Yes, Ryu is off to an incredible start here in 2019. He's 9-1 w/ a 1.26 ERA and 0.817 WHIP, putting him in line to start for the National League in next month's All-Star Game. But the Dodgers can score too. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game at home. Their opponent can score too, though they did lose 4-2 last night. Sure Colorado benefits from playing half of its games at Coors Field. But their last series (on the road) saw them score 20 times in three games. Take the Over here. 

Ryu's last four starts have gone Under, which can't be too surprising given how well he's pitched. He's allowed just THREE runs total during that time, two of them unearned. Over his last eight starts, Ryu has allowed just FIVE runs total, five times not giving up ANY! But let's stop the dissuading w/ the Over here. The Rockies have been a nemesis for Ryu throughout his career. He's just 4-6 in 10 starts against them w/ a 4.97 ERA. Again, the total is low here for two teams that are both more than capable of putting a good deal of runs on the board. 

The Dodgers had scored nine runs in three straight games going into yday. I'm obviously banking on them having plenty of success at the plate tonight vs. Pete Lambert. Lambert, who is a rookie, has made thee starts previously. The first two, both against the Cubs, went well. The last one, against San Diego, did not. Lambert gave up eight runs in only three innings to the Padres. While it would be easy to chalk that up to pitching at Coors, it's not like San Diego is any kind of great offensive team and it wasn't the home run ball that hurt Lambert either. The Over is 9-3 the last 12 times Colorado has faced a starter w/ a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers

10* Under Angels/Cardinals (8:15 ET): A red-hot Angels offense (6.1 rpg scored L7 games) heads to St. Louis this weekend, but unfortunately they'll have to leave the DH at home as this Interleague series will be contested under National League rules. Fortunately though for the Halos, they'll have Griffin Canning on the mound Friday and he's pitched very well this season (0.993 WHIP) even if that's not really reflected his his record. St. Louis is off to a disappointing start to their homestand as they split a four-game series w/ lowly Miami, including a loss yday. Take the Under here. 

The first three games of the Miami series were all low-scoring games for the Redbirds. There were two shutouts (one from each side) and a 2-1 game that went 11 innings (won by St. Louis). The Under was 3-0 in those games. Last night was a different story as St. Louis rallied from a 2-run deficit to tie in both the seventh and eighth innings. The game again went 11 innings, but this time it ended up as a 7-6 loss for the home team. Michael Wacha gets the start here and while he hasn't exactly pitched great, he is only two starts removed from going six innings w/o allowing a single run. Wacha facing a weaker version of the Angels lineup (pitcher coming up to bat) obviously helps. 

Canning should do well here as well. He simply does not allow a lot of runners on base. I played against the Angels last night as they lost 7-5 up in Toronto. Though they've done well so far, this is a pretty exhausting road trip for the Angels as they've gone from Tampa Bay to Toronto to St. Louis w/ no days off. So it could be an off-night at the plate, which is what I'm banking on here. The Under is 6-2-1 in Canning's last nine starts overall and a perfect 4-0 the last four times he's started off a team loss. 10* Under Angels/Cardinals

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two of the American League's real "powerhouses" (pun intended!) are trending in very different directions of late as the Yankees are hot (won six straight) and the Astros are not (lost five straight). These recent disparate results can be directly tied to the respective health of the two ballclubs. Having gone 37-17 their L54 games, the Yankees are now as healthy as they've been all year as Aaron Judge returns to the lineup Friday. Houston's clubhouse currently resembles a M*A*S*H unit w/ George Springer, Aldemys Diaz and Carlos Correa all out. I think it makes a lot of sense to take the Yanks here. 

The respective health of the two clubs is enough justification to take the home team here, but the pitching matchup is the cherry on top. James Paxton will be seeking to win B2B decisions for the first time all season, but pay no mind to that nor the fact his ERA & WHIP from the L3 starts are higher than what you'd expect. Paxton has pitched very well at home this year (2.15 ERA, 0.954 WHIP) and allowed only two runs in six innings his last time out, at Chicago. That was a 10-3 win for NY and they've kept rolling ever since. During the six game win streak, they've outscored the opposition 49-17! 

Houston is having to rely on its pitching right now, but the starting rotation doesn't set up well at all for this series. Justin Verlander will go Sunday, but there's no Gerrit Cole. Tonight, Brad Peacock is on the mound and he'll have to contain a lineup now at full strength that has hit a HR in 23 consecutive games. The Yankees also just added Edwin Encarnacion. Peacock has a 5.51 ERA his L3 starts. He last started Sunday in a 12-0 loss to a Toronto team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball. The Yankees are 13-2 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Houston is 0-2 as a road underdog in that same range and 3-9 the L3 seasons. 8* NY Yankees

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): The Cubs are back atop the NL Central, which is where they belong given that they are the division's best team. A six-run inning was all that they needed to beat the Mets last night and today's game should be just as easy. The Mets are in a real tailspin right now having dropped 7 of 10. The homefield advantage in this series would appear to be rather massive considering the Cubs' 26-12 record here at Wrigley while the Mets are just 15-26 on the road. Visitors are scoring just 3.5 runs per game this year at Wrigley. Take the Cubs here. 

It was certainly NOT a great start to the season for Cubs' starter Yu Darvish. But we've begun to see signs of him turning things around. His last start was arguably his best of 2019 as he went seven innings and allowed only one run on two hits. That was on the road, against the Dodgers, no less. Darvish finished w/ 10 strikeouts and the Cubs rallied for a 2-1 win. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. This Mets lineup doesn't pose much of a threat as they've been unable to top four runs in four of their last five ballgames. The Cubs have owned the Mets in recent seasons, going 11-3 head to head in the L14 matchups. 

Jason Vargas has been solid if unspectacular for the Mets this season. More will be asked of him now though w/ Noah Syndergaard out. Unfortunately, Vargas was unable to "answer the bell" his last time out as he lasted just four innings and had to leave due to cramping in his left calf. The Mets are just 50-74 in day games the L3 seasons and are a team pretty clearly on the decline. They haven't hit well in day games this year (3.9 rpg) and won't today. Cubs win, Cubs win! 7* Chi Cubs

8* Under Rays/A's (10:05 ET): These teams just met last week and all three games stayed Under the total. That's the way I'm playing Thursday's series opener as we have what looks to be a pretty strong starting pitching matchup of Charlie Morton vs. Frankie Montas. Morton has been one of the most pleasant surprises in all of baseball this year as he's 8-1 w/ a 2.37 ERA and 1.03 WHIP (15 starts). That lone loss came his last time out when he surrendered four runs in six innings to the Angels (final score was 5-3). Montas is 3-0 his L3 starts and has a 2.85 ERA for the season. Take the Under.

Tampa Bay comes to the West Coast "licking their wounds" some as they were just swept by the Yankees (in NY). Yesterday was their worst loss all year as they were beaten 12-1 in a game reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell got chased in the 1st inning. So it's imperative they get a good start out of Morton tonight and they should. Before allowing the four runs his last time out, Morton had allowed just three runs - total - his previous four starts, which spanned 27 innings. One of those was seven scoreless innings vs. these A's, whom he held to just two hits. 

Strangely, Morton has pitched better on the road than at home. He has a 1.59 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in eight starts on the road where he remains unbeaten (5-0). Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest runs in all of MLB and allow only 3.3 per game away from home, which is also #1. Oakland only allows 3.9 rpg here at home w/ opponents batting just .229. Montas is 4-0 at home and has made three straight quality starts w/ 22 K's in 18 IP. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts overall. After feasting on Baltimore pitching to start the week (scored 27 runs in 3-game sweep), the A's bats should cool off considerably tonight. 8* Under Rays/A's

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto just can't seem to beat the Angels as last night's 11-6 loss dropped them to 0-6 head to head this season. But that's where the RL can at least help us this evening as they look to avoid what would be a pretty embarrassing four-game sweep in their own ballpark. Home teams rarely get swept in four-game series, so that & the revenge angle have me taking the Jays +1.5 here.

Now last night I did take the Angels. It was the second time in the series that they scored 10 or more runs. The middle game was a lot different as that was only a 3-1 win where they had to rally. Last night was all about Mike Trout as he had a career-high 7 RBI's, including his sixth career grand slam. The loss dropped Toronto to 12-25 at home this year as they have the lowest team batting average in all of baseball. It may not appear that tonight's starter Clayton Richard (10.21 ERA, 2.026 WHIP L3 starts) is poised to help the cause, but LA is just 11-17 in games where they face a southpaw starter. 

Richard had one really bad outing, that came the last time he pitched here at home (vs. Arizona). But other than that (gave up 7 runs in 2 2/3 IP), he hasn't been all that bad. It's not as if Angels starter Jose Suarez has been "lights out" either. He's allowed a HR in each of his three starts and has a 4.50 ERA. He's also yet to go more than 5 2/3 innings in any start. To me, this simply boils down to the "just due" factor for Toronto as they are on their longest home losing streak in 15 seasons. Meanwhile, this is the first time the Angels have been above .500 since they were 8-7 on April 13th. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* Under Rockies/D'backs (3:40 ET): This series has not gone according to plan for the home team as Arizona has dropped both games so far. They've had some major problems w/ Colorado this year, going 2-7 in head to head meetings, which is the primary reason why they're now two games back of their division rival despite having the superior YTD run differential. Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 49 runs while the Rockies are only +21. I'd like to grab the D'backs this afternoon, but I actually think both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. Take the Under.

Colorado was able to score five runs in seven innings against Zack Greinke last night. It was the first time all season that Greinke lost at home and the Rockies' 11 hits were their most against him in 5+ seasons. But the news was not all good. Shortstop Trevor Story left the game after jamming his thumb on a slide. He's scheduled for an MRI today, so he won't be in the lineup. Story is one of only two players in all of MLB w/ at least 15 HR's and 10 steals. He also leads the league w/ 65 runs scored. His absence will be significant for a Rockies offense which obviously already sees a decrease in production outside of Coors Field (4.5 rpg vs. 6.9 rpg). 

Robbie Ray has pitched better than it seems, at least recently, for the D'backs. While his ERA in his L3 starts is 4.58, his WHIP is 0.966, so the first number is a little misleading. Last time out, he gave up five runs on only five hits, which is quite unlucky. The two starts before that saw Ray allow just five runs total in 13 2/3 innings (w/ 19 K's). Colorado's Jeff Hoffman has hardly been Cy Young this year, but he also allowed just one run (in 5 IP) his last time out. Arizona has scored only five runs in this series. The Under is 5-0 the L5 times Hoffman has started on 5+ days rest. 8* Under Rockies/D'backs

10* Arizona (3:40 ET): This series has not gone according to plan for the home team as Arizona has dropped both games so far. They've had some major problems w/ Colorado this year, going 2-7 in head to head meetings, which is the primary reason why they're now two games back of their division rival despite having the superior YTD run differential. Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 49 runs while the Rockies are only +21. I'd like to grab the D'backs this afternoon, but I actually think both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. Take the Under. 

Colorado was able to score five runs in seven innings against Zack Greinke last night. It was the first time all season that Greinke lost at home and the Rockies' 11 hits were their most against him in 5+ seasons. But the news was not all good. Shortstop Trevor Story left the game after jamming his thumb on a slide. He's scheduled for an MRI today, so he won't be in the lineup. Story is one of only two players in all of MLB w/ at least 15 HR's and 10 steals. He also leads the league w/ 65 runs scored. His absence will be significant for a Rockies offense which obviously already sees a decrease in production outside of Coors Field (4.5 rpg vs. 6.9 rpg). 

Robbie Ray has pitched better than it seems, at least recently, for the D'backs. While his ERA in his L3 starts is 4.58, his WHIP is 0.966, so the first number is a little misleading. Last time out, he gave up five runs on only five hits, which is quite unlucky. The two starts before that saw Ray allow just five runs total in 13 2/3 innings (w/ 19 K's). Colorado's Jeff Hoffman allowed just one run in five innings his last time out, but generally has NOT pitched well this season as is evident by a 7.04 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. The Rockies have lost Hoffman's last four road starts. Go w/ the home team to avoid the sweep today. 10* Arizona 

8* Under Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Although they are a quite respectable 5-6 head to head w/ the Dodgers this year, this is NOT a spot where you'd expect San Francisco to win. They are huge underdogs on the money line and got beat 9-0 last night. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers are 29-9 at home this year and this has the recipe for a beatdown. But the price makes it rather "unfashionable" to play LA here. Thankfully the total is another attractive option as I'm taking the Under in this one. 

Let's start w/ the fact that the Dodgers are giving up only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. Opponents are batting just .211 here at Chavez Ravine. Rich Hill toes the rubber Wednesday night and he'll be going for a 4th straight win here in June. Hill has started nine games this year and has yet to allow more than 3 ER. It also just so happens that Hill has been outstanding against the Giants since joining the Dodgers. He's 6-1 against them w/ a 1.81 ERA. San Francisco had only four hits in last night's game after managing just three in the series opener. Their offense should be "taken care of" tonight. 

The Dodgers' broke last night's game open w/ a grand slam from Enrique Hernandez in the 7th. It wound up being a six-run inning. Take that away and there was very little offense in the game. (The shutout was LA's MLB-leading 10th of the season). Hoping to hold the Dodgers' offense in check for tonight's nationally televised contest is Drew Pomeranz. While his overall numbers aren't that great, the Under is 7-4 this year in Pomeranz starts and he's coming off B2B strong efforts, one of which came against the Dodgers. Back on June 7th, at home, he held LA scoreless for five innings. He followed that by allowing just two unearned runs in another five inning effort last Friday vs. Milwaukee. 8* Under Giants/Dodgers

8* Under Marlins/Cardinals (8:10 ET): I already have an Under play on the American League's lowest scoring team (Detroit) in this package, so now let's also go Under w/ the National League's lowest scoring team (Miami). There's a rather sizable gap between Detroit/Miami and everyone else when it comes to runs scored this year. Yet Miami did put six runs on the board yday in a shocking shutout of their own here in St. Louis. That came after they were shutout themselves in Monday's opener. Another low scoring game should be on tap tonight. Take the Under. 

Five of Miami's last 10 games have seen either them or the opponent being shutout. Three of those five it's been them getting blanked. There were also two other games where they scored only one run. The last time they shut an opponent out was June 12th, also against St. Louis (won 9-0). They came back the next game and were shutout themselves (albeit by a different team). Before Starlin Castro's solo HR in the fifth last night, the Marlins had gone 18 straight innings w/o scoring.

Trevor Richards should keep Miami in this game, however. While he struggled his last time out, before that Richards had allowed 1 ER or less in four straight starts. Then there's the fact that the Marlins have not scored a single run in Richards' last two starts. He'll be opposed here by Daniel Ponce de Leon. This will be Ponce de Leon's third start. The first two have seen him go a combined nine innings and allow only two runs. The Under is now 5-0 in the Cardinals last five home games. 8* Under Marlins/Cardinals

8* LA Angels (7:07 ET): Time to cut bait with the Blue Jays, who just can't seem to beat the Angels. Last night's 3-1 loss dropped Toronto to 0-5 in the season series and things don't look any more promising Wednesday w/ Aaron Sanchez on the hill. Sanchez is 0-7 (nine starts) since the beginning of May. The Jays simply aren't hitting the ball well right now (only three hits yday) either. In fact, they have the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.223), including a horrid .207 at home. Look for the Angels to make it three straight here. 

Toronto got blitzed in Monday's opener, falling behind 7-0 after the second inning. Yesterday was a little different in that the game was closer (and lower-scoring), but the result was the same - a loss (3-1). Sanchez has done plenty of losing lately as have the Blue Jays. The team has lost 30 of its last 41 games and Sanchez certainly hasn't helped. He is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. As I said earlier, he hasn't won a decision since April. He has a 6.95 ERA during the losing streak and is also winless in five career appearances vs. the Angels (4.42 ERA). Toronto is 2-6 the L8 times they've dropped the first two games of a series. 

The Angels go w/ Andrew Heaney tonight. Seeing as last night's starter Tyler Skaggs went a season-high 7 1/3 innings against this weak-hitting Blue Jays lineup, I expect Heaney to pitch well here. He has a 0.969 WHIP in four starts, so that 4.57 ERA is actually a little misleading as is the fact he's still winless. His first three starts saw him punch out 28 batters in 16 2/3 innings and last time out he allowed only one run and two hits in 5 IP at Tampa Bay. The bottom line is that Toronto has lost two-thirds of their home games (!) and is one of the worst teams in baseball. 8* LA Angels

8* Under Tigers/Pirates (7:05 ET): I took the Pirates yday and that proved to be a mistake as they suffered a 5-4 loss to the Tigers. It's not like I hadn't been critical of Pittsburgh previously. In fact, I'd been pretty much FADING them for the last month or so. This is a team that has been outscored by 78 runs on the year, the second worst differential in the National League. Not to be outdone, Detroit's YTD run differential is -131, which is second worst in all of baseball. Today I'll be playing the Under, a sensible bet considering the Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs in all of MLB. 

The Tigers won yday despite being outhit 8-6. The GW run scored on a fielder's choice in what should have been an inning-ending double play. Regardless, the win snapped a four-game losing streak for the team from the Motor City. But that won't change the fact this is an American League team playing in a National League park, which means no designated hitter. Considering every other AL team has scored at least 45 more runs than the Tigers, the lack of a DH is the last thing they need. Trevor Williams makes his return from a 30-day stint on the DL to start for the Pirates tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He's 2-0 w/ a 0.95 ERA in three previous starts vs. Detroit and went at least six innings in six of his first eight starts. 

Also making his return from the DL today will be Detroit's starter Jordan Zimmerman, whose last big league start came on April 25th. I think this is a good spot for him to return. Pittsburgh is not playing well right now obviously, so facing them should give Zimmerman some much needed confidence. The Under is 4-1 the L5 times tonight's home plate umpire has been behind the plate. The Under is also 41-15-1 in Williams' last 57 starts! 8* Under Tigers/Pirates

8* Under Orioles/A's (3:35 ET): Going Under anytime this dreadful Orioles' pitching staff is involved seems like a dicey proposition at best, but I think it's the right call here as they wrap up a three-game set in Oakland. Baltimore has scored only two runs themselves in each of the first two games. But they were up to their "old tricks" last night in allowing the A's to score 16 times! Oakland homered six times and 10 of their runs came in one inning. That won't happen again today, so my bet is this game being lower-scoring than anticipated. Take the Under.

Baltimore is going w/ a "lesser-known" commodity today as Jimmy Yacabonis will "open" w/ Josh Rogers following him. Yacabonis has already pitched in the series as Monday saw him go two innings w/o giving up a run. He allowed just one hit. Rogers has pitched just once all year and that was last Friday where he went 4 1/3 and gave up just two runs on five hits. So I think that the Orioles can slow down the A's bats this afternoon. Now, winning the game is a whole different matter for a club that comes into Wednesday having dropped seven in a row. 

Baltimore has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games. They average only 3.9 runs per game for the season. Another positive is that they allow fewer rpg on the road than at home. Yacabonis should help against Oakland's mostly right-handed hitting lineup. Chris Bassitt is the more traditional starter here for the A's and should do just fine. He has a 1.80 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Orioles. Hoping the A's have the lead heading into the ninth as that means we can avoid playing the bottom half of the final inning. 8* Under Orioles/A's

8* NY Mets (7:20 ET): The Braves are hot right now, but tonight they'll be running into reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.86 ERA in 18 career starts against them. For a second straight year, deGrom is experiencing the hardest of luck as his team start record (TSR) in 2019 is 4-10 despite good numbers. Over his last five starts, he has a 2.38 ERA, yet is winless over that stretch. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of the five starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 8 trips to the mound, not to mention all but four times this season. 

Fresh off beating the Mets 12-3 yday, Atlanta sends out Julio Teheran, who has been "lights out" in his own right of late. His L3 starts, all Braves victories, have seen Teheran post a 0.53 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. During that time, he's allowed just two runs in 17 IP and one of them was unearned. But he also had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) last time out and I simply do not see Teheran being as dominant as deGrom is. I say this knowing full well it's been eight straight starts for Teheran where he's given up 1 or 0 ER (3-0, 0.81 ERA in that stretch). He also has 2.35 ERA in 25 previous starts vs. the Mets. 

While this may seem like it sets up as a good old fashioned pitcher's duel, the fact is deGrom is favored and deserves to be. Yes, the Braves have been red hot (MLB-best 13-3 in June) and lead the National League East. But I'm not sure I'm ready to buy them long-term. The offense is certainly set to slow down here facing deGrom and I think Teheran is set to slow down as well. 8* NY Mets

8* Toronto RUN LINE (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays at +1.5. I was set to make this very same wager last night. But Toronto made a last minute pitching change, thereby rendering the play "no action." It's a good thing too, as they lost 10-5 to the Angels. But I'll come back w/ TOR +1.5 today as we're assured of having a much more capable starter on the mound (Marcus Stroman). Though the Angels are 4-0 vs. the Blue Jays so far in 2019, I'm not convinced they are a demonstrably better ballclub in any real, tangible way. 

Stroman definitely looked good his last time out, which ended up being a rare Toronto win. He allowed just two runs - only one earned - across six innings as the Blue Jays beat Baltimore. It was also the fifth time in the last six starts that Stroman allowed 3 ER or fewer. Last night's pitching was a disaster for Toronto as Edwin Jackson came in during the second inning and allowed seven runs. That's not going to happen w/ Stroman on the mound. While the Jays definitely have been struggling this year, what makes yday's defeat so disappointing is the fact they were coming off a big 12-0 win over Houston on Sunday. 

With the win yday, the Angels moved within a game of .500. This isn't the first time they've had a chance to pull "even" on the season and every time previous seems to follow a predictable pattern. The last seven times LA has had a chance to move to .500, they have lost. Tyler Skaggs will start for them on Tuesday and quality starts from him have been few and far between, especially on the road where his ERA (6.11) and WHIP (1.471) are both poor. Last night's game couldn't have gotten off to a better start for the Angels, but I expect the Blue Jays to get revenge here. 8* Toronto RUN LINE (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): What's this? A play on the Pirates? If you're a regular follower, then you know the Bucs are a team I've heavily targeted as a FADE in recent weeks due to them having a YTD run differential that was indicative of a team that should have a much worse record. Sure enough, the ship has been sinking fast here as they've lost 19 of their last 27 games, including 8 of their last 10. But after taking 2 of 3 from Miami over the weekend, the Bucs couldn't have asked for a better opponent to start the week than the Tigers, who have dropped 23 of 30, including four straight. 

Like the Pirates, the Tigers have a very poor run differential. In fact, at -132, Detroit has the second worst run differential in the sport (Baltimore). Both of these teams probably should have fewer wins then, but run diff says the Tigers have played to the level of a team that should only have 20 wins. They've scored the fewest runs in all of MLB and now head to a National League park, which means the DH will be substituted for the pitcher coming up to bat. The Tigers are just 3-10 in interleague play this season and 15-37 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. 

Over the weekend, Detroit got swept at home by Cleveland including a shutout loss on Sunday. They've scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Daniel Norris will get the start for them in this series opener. Norris has lost both IL starts this season and the team is just 3-12 the L15 times he's taken the mound dating back to last season. Rookie Mitch Keller goes for Pittsburgh. While it's been a rough start for Keller (who was called into starting duty due to injuries in the rotation), this is the weakest lineup in MLB he'll be facing here. The Pirates are 7-2 vs. American League teams this season and 32-17 the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Turns out that the Tigers were just what the "doctor ordered" for the Indians. They swept them (in Detroit) and are now four games over .500 (37-33) heading into what shapes up as a pretty important early season series w/ Texas. The Rangers still hold the 2nd Wild Card in the American League, but I played against them yday and they lost 11-3 to Cincinnati. It's down to a one-half game lead over Cleveland for that last WC spot, but there's obviously still a lot of baseball to be played. The fact the Indians come in as a slight betting favorite for Monday's opener "tells a story" in my view and I'll back the Tribe here. 

The Rangers are the 2nd highest scoring team in baseball (Twins) but will have to contend w/ an Indians pitching staff that is top five in fewest runs allowed. It may not be saying much, but the Indians outscored the Tigers 25-6 in the three-game sweep. That included an 8-0 shutout Sunday behind Trevor Bauer. Mike Clevinger will look to follow suit here as he returns from the 60-day DL (back) here. Clevinger made only two starts before the injury, but had looked very good. In 12 scoreless innings of work, he'd allowed all of two hits and had 22 K's. Most importantly, Cleveland won both games. I think Clevinger can be a tremendous asset on an Indians' pitching staff that is already quite good. 

Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in the league so far. They lost 95 games last season. While a strong home team so far (24-12), it remains to be seen whether or not they can continue the current pace. Lance Lynn gets the start here. While he is unbeaten at home (4-0 in six starts), his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.418. So it's not as if he's been dominant. Note Texas is 1-6 their L7 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. So, historically speaking, this has not been a good spot for them. 10* Cleveland

8* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Reds are a team I've previously stumped for as being better than their overall record. But that wouldn't be apparent by watching this series. They've dropped two straight to the Rangers, who are clearly exceeding expectations at this point. But back to Cincy. They have outscored the opposition by 38 runs this season, yet are somehow eight games below .500. That run differential is fourth best in the entire National League and more than three times first place Milwaukee! According to run differential, the Reds should be eight games ABOVE .500, not below. I believe they avoid the sweep Sunday behind Sonny Gray.

Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in either league thus far. As of now, they'd actually be a Wild Card team in the American League! That's quite the improvement for a club that lost 95 games a year ago. But despite winning each of the last two days here at Great American Ballpark, the Rangers are still just 14-20 on the road. Let's not forget the loss of the DH by this being an interleague series. The Rangers really benefitted from three Reds' errors in yday's 4-3 victory. Not saying they wouldn't have won otherwise, but it's something that probably won't happen again today. 

Gray has had past success pitching against Texas. He's 8-3 in his career against them w/ two shutouts and a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts. I expect him to outpitch Ariel Jurado, even though the latter has made four straight quality starts and won his last three. Jurado has allowed a HR in each of those L4 starts. Gray hasn't given up any in his L4 and also hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start all year. He's made 13 starts to Jurado's five. Lost in the fact Texas has scored the second most runs in all of MLB is that Cincy has allowed the second fewest (#1 in NL). 8* Cincinnati

10* Under Royals/Twins (2:10 ET): Minnesota has been scoring at an extraordinary clip this season, leading the league w/ a 6.0 rpg average. But I'll call for their bats to remain relatively "quiet" today as they finish up a three-game set w/ the Royals. The Twins have taken the first two of this three-game set, but in doing so it's been their pitching leading the way. They've held KC to just four runs (all of them coming yday), which shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given the Royals have been one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball this season. Take the Under here.

Going today for the Twins will be Martin Perez, one of the many surprising arms in their rotation. While Perez has struggled some of late, he still has very good numbers here at Target Field, including a 2.70 ERA. Four of the five times he's started here at home, the game has stayed Under. This will be Perez's first time facing the Royals in 2019, but seeing how none of the other Twins' starters have struggled against them, I expect a quality outing here. He has a 2.29 ERA in three previous starts vs. Kansas City. Minnesota is allowing just 3.4 runs per game at home for the year. 

The Twins actually score fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. On the road, they've been pretty ridiculous averaging a league high 6.6 rpg. But at home, that number drops to a more modest 5.2 rpg. They've only scored seven runs total the L2 days. Kansas City blew a golden opportunity to "steal one" yday as they had an early 4-1 lead, but went 0 for 7 w/ RISP. I do like Sunday starter Jake Junis' chances of slowing down this Twins' offense, however. Junis has gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less three of his last four starts. His L3 starts have all gone Under. 10* Under Royals/Twins

8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox dug themselves an early hole by starting the season 6-13. But they've climbed out of it by going 32-21 since and can make it five straight wins today by beating the lowly Orioles. They're in position to sweep after a 7-2 win yday as they've now outscored the O's 20-4 the previous two days. A win today would also make it five straight over Baltimore dating back to a series from last month. Baltimore does have John Means starting here, which is why the ML is lower than you'd expect, but even he still has a 4-7 TSR as the O's remain the worst team in baseball. 

Now Means has pitched well at Camden Yards, something you really can't say for any other Baltimore pitcher. The Orioles are giving up a ghastly 7.0 runs per game at home this season, which is easily the most rpg allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, Baltimore has given up the second most runs in all of baseball this year (Seattle). As I said, Means has pitched well here and he's been the team's most effective starter. But even so, they've still lost 7 of his 11 starts. The fact that he's gone longer than six innings only once is a big deal w/ the Orioles' bullpen being as bad as it is.

Baltimore is the only team in baseball not to have won 10 home games yet (9-27 at home) and eventually opposing hitters are going to figure out Means' changeup. Part of the reason Means hasn't gone deeper into games is that he has a tendency to run up his pitch count. Like I already said, the Red Sox have run up 20 runs in two games on Baltimore pitching. Meanwhile, the Orioles have scored just five runs total in their last three games vs. Boston. I know Brian Johnson isn't the most impressive arm the Red Sox could trot to the mound today. But he should pitch well enough for his team to finish the sweep. 8* Boston

6* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers have proven to be too strong for the Cubs thus far, taking the first two games of this series 7-3 and 5-3. As I said yday (took the Under and 'pushed.'), a pretty clear case can be made that this is the National League's best team. They have the best record (47-23) and best run differential (+111) w/ comfortable leads in both departments. At home is where they've really been dominant as their record at Chavez Ravine is now 27-7 and they're outscoring visitors by 2.3 runs per game! Save for Wednesday's win in Colorado (which I was on!), the Cubs have now dropped 9 of 10 away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. 

Making matters even more difficult for the Cubbies tonight is they have to go against Walker Buehler. They've already faced Clayton Kershaw & Rich Hill. Buehler will be no reprieve in this department and tomorrow they'll have to see Hyun-Jin Ryu. So this series really did not set up well from the start. Buehler is 7-1 in 13 starts w/ a 0.982 WHIP and the Dodgers have won each of the last four times he's taken the mound. He's gone a combined 15 innings in his last two starts and given up just one run. As the Cubs have found out the "hard way" the L2 days, it is difficult to score here at Dodger Stadium, at least when you're the visitor. Opposing teams are scoring just 3.4 rpg here. The Cubs' scoring average on the road (5.6 rpg) was due to take a hit anyway. 

This could prove to be a challenging start for the Cubs' Yu Darvish. Last time he took the mound in this stadium was wearing Dodger Blue in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and he basically cost his team the game. So expect a more fired up crowd here than usual for a game in June. Darvish has been a little better of late, but overall his numbers are still below par. The Cubs are just 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 6* LA Dodgers

7* Colorado (8:10 ET): It was a wild one last night here at Coors Field w/ the Padres defeating the Rockies 16-12 in a game that went 12 innings. You'll get those kind of high-scoring results sometimes in the thin air of Denver, but the Padres scoring 16 runs in a game was abnormal to say the least. Keep in mind that they rallied for six runs in the ninth to tie the game at 11-11. San Diego had never overcome a deficit of 6+ runs in the ninth according to Elias nor had Colorado ever blown a lead of that size. I think the Rockies get some revenge Saturday. 

I can't say that I'm sold on this Padres team, which has been outscored by 33 runs this season. Last night snapped a five-game losing skid, which included a 9-6 loss here in Denver Thursday night. Though they had lost five in a row before last night's miraculous rally, San Diego is a team that has experienced mostly good fortune in 2019, at least in close games. They have 16 one-run victories this season, which is the most in all of MLB. That aforementioned run differential speaks to this being a below average team. They were just 1-5 vs. Colorado before yday's win and are 1-3 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 

Tonight's pitching matchup features two good starters, but I give the edge to German Marquez over Eric Lauer. Yes, the former has a much higher ERA and WHIP at home than on the road. But he still has a 7-1 TSR at Coors, so he knows how to win here. As for San Diego's Eric Lauer, he already has troubling numbers on the road (6.84 ERA), so Coors may not be for him. In fact, starting opposite Marquez here in May, Lauer gave up eight runs in only three innings. That was - by far - his worst outing all season. Marquez is unbeaten in three career starts vs. SD at home, posting a 2.93 ERA. 7* Colorado 

10* Under Pirates/Marlins (6:10 ET): Pittsburgh has now gone Over in five straight games as well as 35 of their last 51 games overall. Lately, it had been them giving up runs in bunches (allowed 34 in four games at Atlanta), but last night was their turn to "turn it on at the plate" as they crushed Miami 11-0. While that singular win will help out the team's woeful YTD run differential (-77) some, I wouldn't think that we'll see any kind of repeat effort at the plate on Saturday. They're also facing a Miami team that has scored the fewest number of runs in the entire NL. Take the Under. 

So the Marlins were shutout yday, something that has turned into a bit of a regular occurrence in 2019. It was the 12th time it's happened this season and keep in mind they've played just 67 games total. So we're looking at almost one-fifth of the time they fail to even score a run. Just as bad of news for them today is that they are 0-4 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Last night was their seventh loss in the last eight games. In six of those seven losses, they were held to one run or less! One of the wins though (Wednesday) was a shutout of their own. 

Having Pablo Lopez on the bump tonight helps the Marlins' chances. He's made three straight quality starts (posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP) and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in four of his last five outings. Lopez also pitches much better here at home (1.78 ERA in six starts) than on the road. For the Pirates, Dario Agrazal is making his 1st big league start, becoming the 12th different pitcher to start a game for them in 2019. Agrazal looked great down in Triple-A, holding batters to a .216 average while posting a 0.97 WHIP. In 8 of his L10 starts, he went at least six innings while allowing two runs or less. So the Pirates have high hopes for him. So do I as the amount of scoring in their games is due to subside. A matchup w/ the NL's lowest scoring team is an ideal time for that to take place. 10* Under Pirates/Marlins

8* Under Brewers/Giants (4:10 ET): Based on Jimmy Nelson's first start for Milwaukee, the last thing you might want to do here is bet the Under. Facing the NL's weakest lineup (Miami), Nelson gave up five runs in only three innings, leading to a 12.33 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. However, that was also Nelson's first start since 2017 (missed all of last year recovering from right shoulder surgery). I think he'll pitch a lot better today as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from a 5-3 loss last night here in San Francisco. I'm on the Under.

Milwaukee could only manage three runs last night as they lost for just the second time in its last seven games. That was disappointing given the pitcher they were facing, Drew Pomeranz, who was 0-3 in May w/ a 19.16 ERA. It's a far more formidable task this afternoon going against Madison Bumgarner, who has had their number in the past w/ a 2.63 ERA in 12 starts. Bumgarner also comes into Saturday on a real roll. He's delivered four straight quality starts, including seven innings Sunday vs. the Dodgers where he allowed just one run and four hits. Unfortunately for him, the Giants lost that game 1-0.

The Giants are not a good offensive team, especially here at home where they're barely averaging 3.0 runs per game. So w/ Bumgarner on the hill, this sets up to be another really low-scoring game. SF is 28th in MLB in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 29th in OPS. They did manage to homer three times in yday's victory, but I would not expect anything close to a repeat performance considering they'd hit just three HR's their previous five games behind. Nelson is better than what he showed in his return. Also, the Under is 13-2-1 the L16 times Milwaukee has faced a lefty starter. 8* Under Brewers/Giants 

8* Under Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Los Angeles has clearly emerged as the best team in the Senior Circuit (National League) as they have the best run differential (+109) and best overall win percentage (46-23). No team is even within 40 of that run diff and they are also six games clear of the next best team, record-wise. The Dodgers improved to 26-7 at home last night w/ an impressive 7-3 win over the Cubs, who have suddenly forgotten how to win on the road. Save for Wednesday's win in Colorado (which I was on!), the Cubbies have dropped eight of nine away from the Friendly Confines. 

Tonight features an excellent pitching matchup of Rich Hill vs. Kyle Hendricks. The Dodgers don't give up many runs to begin with (just 3.4 per game at home) and Hill has played a major role in that allowing 2 ER or less in each of his last five outings. That stretch has seen him give up only five runs TOTAL in 30 IP. His last start here at Chavez Ravine saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball (against Philadelphia). I know that the Cubs are averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road, but that seems like an unsustainable number moving forward. 

Not only should Hill quiet the Cubs' bats here, but Hendricks should do the same to the Dodgers. Hendricks has been on fire of late w/ four straight quality starts. He'll look to make it five here at a place that hasn't treated him all that well in the past, but this should be different. Hendricks comes in having won six straight decisions overall and has not lost since May 3rd, posting a 1.99 ERA. He's won each of his last three starts, posting a 0.909 WHIP and all three games stayed Under. This one will too. 8* Under Cubs/Dodgers

8* Under Yankees/White Sox (8:10 ET): As the odds seem to indicate, the White Sox actually have a fighting chance tonight against the Yankees and it's because of who's starting for them. Lucas Giolito has been absolutely filthy in his 12 starts, posting a 10-2 team start record to go along w/ a 2.28 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's been even better than normal recently, going 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.17 ERA and 0.609 WHIP. Giolito comes into Friday riding a 15 inning scoreless streak, a stretch which has also seen him strike out 20 batters. He hasn't given up any runs in three of his last four starts overall.

Even w/o Giolito, the White Sox were able to beat the Yanks yday, doing so by a score of 5-4. Making the win all the more impressive is the fact Chicago had to rally from a 4-0 deficit. Leury Garcia provided the difference w/ a go-ahead solo HR in the seventh. Don't look for Chicago to fall into any sort of similar hole tonight as Giolito is actually 8-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA his L10 starts and will be going for an eighth straight win. The Under has cashed the last seven times he's pitched w/ the opposing teams combining for FIVE total runs (four shutouts!). Should we be ready to give Giolito the Cy Young already? He is third in the AL in ERA and he's held opponents to a .505 OPS.

Veteran CC Sabthia goes for NY. While he's dropped B2B starts, the White Sox have always been a kind opponent to him. The hefty lefty is 19-7 all-time vs. Chicago w/ a 3.67 ERA. Earlier this year (back in April), he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against them. It's not like the White Sox are a strong offensive ballclub either. They are bottom 10 in both runs scored and OPS. The Under is 10-4 the L14 times Sabathia has started on the road against a team w/ a losing record and 6-1 the last seven times these teams have played. 8* Under Yankees/White Sox

8* Under Blue Jays/Astros (8:10 ET): Toronto is a terrible team offensively as they are 27th in runs scored and have the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of baseball. (So much for that Vlad Guerrero Jr call-up!). Now you wouldn't have known that by watching yday's game where they recorded season-highs in both runs (12) and hits (17). But that was against Baltimore's beleaguered staff, which ranks among the very worst in baseball. Going from facing that to Houston, specifically tonight's starter Gerrit Cole, is a huge step up in class and should lead to this Blue Jays' lineup reverting back to "usual" form. 

The Astros have their own set of issues right now, namely filling out a lineup card. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Aldemys Diaz, George Springer and Max Stassi will be among those NOT taking the field Friday and that's obviously a massive loss in production. Despite all the injuries, Houston has found a way to remain near the top of most important offensive categories, however, I don't think that can last. Four of the last five games have seen them get held to four runs or less. Their last game (played Wednesday) went 14 innings and saw them held to only three runs. The Under is 33-16-2 in the Astros' last 51 series openers. 

If there is one thing Houston can rely on here though, it's Cole, who is averaging a career best 13.8 K's per nine innings this year. He also has a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Astros' victories. Given the money line for this matchup, another win is likely in order and it's very likely that we'd avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, which is always nice when playing the Under. Toronto's Anibal Sanchez is obviously not in the same class as Cole, but the Under has cashed the last two times he's started (mainly due to poor run support). Sanchez is 3-1 w/ a 3.66 ERA previously vs. Houston. 8* Under Blue Jays/Astros

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET):  The Braves are rolling right now as they've won seven in a row heading into this series w/ Philadelphia. As a result of that win streak, they've surpassed the Phillies in the NL East and now lead the division by 1.5 games. But don't think Atlanta will be lacking for any motivation this weekend. They have revenge on their minds after being swept in Philly back in late March (1st series of the season). Yes, the two teams Atlanta just swept (Miami, Pittsburgh) are two of the NL's worst. But I look for them to step up big on Friday and deliver a resounding win.

During the seven-game win streak, the Braves offense has scored a total of 49 runs or an average of 7.0 per game. They absolutely hammered Pirates pitching to the tune of 34 runs in four games. So that's what Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is up against here. While Pivetta has been pretty sharp lately (1.80 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A), let's not forget the reason he'd been sent down to Lehigh Valley. In his first four starts of the year, Pivetta posted an 8.35 ERA. Overall, the Phillies have dropped 8 of 13 and were shutout Wednesday (2-0) by Arizona.

Atlanta's rotation has been a real pleasant surprise in 2019 and Max Fried has been one of the main contributors to that. After struggling a bit in B2B starts, Fried bounced back by allowing only three runs over six innings against Miami on Sunday. The Phillies did not face him in the first series, so there's the unfamiliarity factor. Fried has pitched very well at home this year w/ a 2.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts. I mentioned earlier that the Phils were shutout in their last game. That bodes well for Fried and the Braves as the last time Philly was blanked in a series finale (8-0 by the Dodgers on June 1st), they lost the opener of the next series (8-2) to San Diego. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Angels/Rays (7:10 ET): The Angels beat the Rays yday, 5-3, in a surprise result. There was a power outage that delayed the game and it also seemed to 'zap' the two offenses, which combined for only five runs over the final eight innings. The key to the whole game was the Angels scoring three runs in the top of the first. Also, Shohei Ohtani hit for the cycle, becoming the first Japanese born player to do so. It's going to be a lot tougher for the Ohtani and the rest of the Angels' hitters today though as they go up against last year's AL Cy Young winner, Blake Snell. 

Snell has a pretty misleading team start record (6-7) as he's pitched well, particularly here at Tropicana Field. He's allowed no more than 2 ER in 11 of his 13 starts this year! At home, he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. Last time out, in Boston, he held the Red Sox to one run in six innings of work. In playing the Under here, we have to mention that the Rays have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. They are allowing just 3.3 per game. Their last six games have all stayed Under as have 10 of the last 11. 

The Angels will have Andrew Heaney on the mound tonight and while he's given up six home runs in three starts, he's managed to mitigate the damage and still pitch well. He has a 0.960 WHIP as he's allowed just seven hits otherwise (besides the home runs) in 16 2/3 IP. He also has 28 strikeouts against only three walks. Lots of trends point towards an Under here, most notably the Angels being 23-5-1 Under their L29 Friday games. While that perhaps could be chalked up to a "random occurrence," the fact that the Angels are 39-17-4 Under their L60 games vs. a LH starter probably isn't. Incredibly though, the Rays have that very same record their L60 games vs. lefty starters. (Both Friday starters are southpaws). TB is also 10-0-2 Under the L12 times Snell has started Game 2 of a series. 8* Under Angels/Rays

10* Under Tigers/Royals (8:05 ET): These teams have split a couple 3-2 decisions w/ tonight being the rubber match. In a "special twist," the game takes place in Omaha as a lead-in to the 2019 College World Series. That's ironic, because it seems like most college teams could outscore these two. The Tigers probably should have won both games in KC, but they blew a 2-0 lead on Tuesday in comical fashion. Despite that, I believe KC is the better team here as the Tigers have a horrible YTD run differential (-109) that is 2nd worst in all of baseball. The only thing keeping them ahead of the Royals is a 6-2 head to head record. Also, KC will have to face one of Detroit's better pitchers Thursday in Matthew Boyd. I think we're in store for another low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Detroit is the lowest scoring team in baseball at only 3.5 runs per game. Keep in mind that at one point Miami was on pace for the fewest runs scored since the 'dead ball' era and even they've passed the Tigers. In the past seven games, Detroit has been held to three or fewer runs six times. But if they are to have a chance of winning this series, it will be because of today's starter Boyd, who has a 3.08 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 14 starts. He faced Kansas City last month and held them to just two runs and five hits in seven innings. Boyd has fond memories of Omaha as the last time he pitched here, he tossed a complete game, four-hit shutout. 

The Royals counter w/ veteran Homer Bailey, who happened to pitch well in his previous start vs. the Tigers this year. He held them to two runs in six innings and now has a 3.05 ERA in three career meetings. While Detroit is last in MLB in runs scored, KC is right down there with them. They've been held to seven runs total the L4 games and have scored no more than three in 8 of their last 10. The Under is now 5-1 the L6 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Tigers/Royals

8* Under Cardinals/Mets (7:10 ET): Coming into the year, I didn't think it would be possible for the Mets' Jacob deGrom to have a worse team start record than he did last season, but here we are through 13 starts and it's 4-9. It's not like deGrom has pitched poorly; though he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was in 2018's Cy Young campaign. But seven of his last eight starts have seen him allow two runs or less. I'm counting on another quality effort from him today as he faces the Cardinals. But I wouldn't go counting on the Mets, so I'm on the Under here. 

St. Louis hasn't exactly been swinging the bats well as they arrive in Queens. They've scored only 2.9 runs per game over the last seven days, batting a collective .210. They were embarrassingly shut out last night, 9-0 by Miami, which was the sixth time in the last nine games they scored three runs or fewer. So deGrom is hardly someone they want to be seeing right now. His last time out deGrom struck out 10 and allowed only two runs over six innings. But the Mets still lost 5-1 to the Rockies. 

The Cards go w/ Jack Flaherty, who has not factored in the decision in any of his last four starts. But he does have a 3.48 ERA during that stretch. While Flaherty hasn't pitched great on the road this year, I think he'll "show up" in this spot after one of his shorter stints of the season. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings in Chicago last Saturday before giving up four runs. But prior to that, he'd allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive outings. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this one. 8* Under Cardinals/Mets

8* Under Rangers/Red Sox (4:05 ET): Back to this matchup where we successfully cashed the Under on Monday. That Under cashed despite the game going 11 innings! Texas won 4-3 (beating Chris Sale) and even more surprising was them coming back and winning against yday, 9-5. After seemingly turning things around in May, the Red Sox have started to struggle again, dropping five of their last six games overall.  They've been held to three runs or fewer four times during that stretch and never scored more than five in any game. Take the Under. 

It may not be Sale, but Rick Porcello will have to do today for Boston. Porcello does have a decent 3.86 ERA in seven previous Fenway starts this year. He allowed four runs in six innings his last time out as the Red Sox lost 5-1 to Tampa Bay. He's facing a strong offense this afternoon (Rangers average 5.7 runs per game), but the Red Sox are 4-0 in Porcello's last four starts vs. Texas. The Under is also 16-5 in Boston's last 21 games vs. a team that has a winning record.

Lance Lynn gets the baseball Weds afternoon for the Rangers and he has some strong career numbers against the Red Sox. In six previous appearances, his ERA is 1.91. Lynn is currently working on a streak of six straight quality starts, five of which have stayed Under the total (including each of the last four). The Under is actually 6-1 following the L7 times Texas has scored 5+ runs in a game. It's 8-2 following the L10 times they've given up 5+ runs in the last game. I think this is set to be a lot more like Monday's game. The Rangers were a little lucky to score nine runs yesterday as they had just nine hits, one of which was an inside the park HR. 8* Under Rangers/Red Sox

8* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): The Cubs' sweep of the Cardinals this past weekend is rapidly becoming a distant memory as they are the ones now facing the same fate here in Colorado. They lost 6-5 on Monday, then 10-3 last night. That latter result was beneficial to me as I had the Over. The Rockies really poured it on late, most notably in a five-run sixth. But let's not forget what I talked about yday: the Cubs happen to be the NL's second highest scoring road team (now at 5.6 runs per game). I have them avoiding the sweep today behind Cole Hamels. 

When these teams met last week at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the Rockies were fortunate enough to avoid Hamels. He's pitched very well of late, including 15 straight innings w/o allowing a single earned run (allowed one unearned). Both starts that make up that stretch came against St. Louis. The last one saw him go eight innings and not only did he not give up any runs, he allowed only three hits and struck out 10. Hamels has a 3.79 ERA in six previous starts here at Coors Field, so he won't be intimidated by the thin air. 

The Rockies obviously score a lot of runs at home (6.4 rpg), but they give up their fair share (6.1) as well. Anthony Senzatela is looking to make it four consecutive quality starts, but I do NOT see that happening here. He has a 5.21 ERA at Coors in five starts this year. Note the price range for this matchup as Colorado is 0-3 in 2019 when priced between +125 and +175 at home. The Cubs are a perfect 6-0 the L6 times Hamels has been coming off a quality start in his last outing. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Over Reds/Indians (1:05 ET): Cincinnati is looking to halt a couple of streaks here. The one more important to them is a 5-15 slide against in-state "rival" Cleveland. More important to us is an eight-game Under streak. While those two streaks may not go "hand in hand," the team's Under streak definitely is tied to the fact they've lost six of those last eight games. During that time, they've scored only 16 runs total, never more than four in any game. They've been held to two runs or fewer in six of those eight games, including yday's 2-1 loss which went 10 innings. 

So we very well may need Cleveland's offense to do the "heavy lifting" Wednesday afternoon. Fortunately, things set up well for them to do just that. Yes, they were held to only two runs on Tuesday. But in the six games prior, the Tribe had scored at least five on five different occasions. Francisco Lindor has reached base safely in all 18 career games vs. the Reds. Carlos Santana brings a seven-game hit streak into Wednesday. While the Reds' pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs in the entire NL, today's starter (Anthony DeSclafani) is not a major reason for that.

DeSclafani looked pretty good his last time out, but that was after allowing 9 HR's in his previous five starts. He's winless since May 6th. Remember that this is an American League lineup he'll be facing. Of course, that works both ways as Cincy also gets the DH added to the lineup, which (theoretically) should help the offense. Cleveland goes w/ Zach Plesac, who has pitched well so far, but it's a limited sample size (only three starts). The Over is a perfect 4-0 the last four times DeSclafani has started against an AL Central team. 8* Over Reds/Indians

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): The Padres are far from my favorite side in MLB right now, but they always seem like a better bet when Chris Paddack takes the mound. Despite coming off B2B less than steller showings, the rookie Paddack has clearly emerged as the staff ace for San Diego w/ a 2.97 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His TSR is 7-4, but curiously his own record is just 4-4 and he obviously deserves better. The two teams he recently faced were the Phillies and Yankees, both of whom field strong lineups. It'll be a drop in class tonight facing San Francisco, who has scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB. 

Paddack has faced the Giants once before. It was actually his big league debut, back on March 31st. He limited them to one run over five innings. Paddack's first nine starts saw him give up no more than 3 ER, but in the last two he's given up 10 total. Again, the teams Paddack hasn't been as successful against this year are all in first place. When not facing a current division leader, his team start record is 7-1. 

The Giants are in last place in the NL West and have the NL's worst run differential overall (-86). They've dropped four of five overall and not scored more than three runs in any of those games. They were shutout on Sunday and have scored just seven runs total in those L5 games. Tyler Beede on the mound doesn't seem like it'll help as he has an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP after three starts. He just gave up six runs - in five innings - last week to the Mets. The Padres haven't exactly played well recently, but they are a better team than the Giants and have a significant pitching edge today. They are also 5-2 vs. SF this season. 8* San Diego

8* Over Cubs/Rockies (8:40 ET): The Rockies won last night's game, 6-5, improving to 34-31 on the season. That result also knocked the Cubs out of first place in the NL Central, one-half game behind the Cubs. While I'm not sure how today's game is going to turn out, I am confident that it'll end up being a high-scoring affair. After all, this is Coors Field and the Rockies score 6.3 runs per game here while also giving up an average of 6.2! The Cubs happen to be the NL's second highest scoring road team as well (5.7 rpg). The Over is a perfect 5-0 in the second game of the Cubs' last five series. Take the Over here.

Jose Quintana will toe the rubber Tuesday for the Cubs and his recent resume indicates this may be a bit of a 'rocky' outing (pun intended!). Quintana already has a 5.84 ERA and 1.378 WHIP on the road and the Cubs have lost his last three starts overall w/ him posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.441 WHIP. He has a 4.32 ERA in five previous starts vs. Colorado. It should come as no shock that the Rockies are again leading the league in scoring at home as this is almost always the case, year after year. The Over is 8-3-1 in Quintana's L12 starts vs. the NL West. 

Colorado was able to rally back from an early 4-0 deficit last night. They hope to avoid a similar early hole here as they send out Peter Lambert, whose big league debut last week probably couldn't have gone any better ... and it was against the Cubs. Lambert allowed just the one run (on four hits) in 7 IP as the Rockies prevailed 3-1 at Wrigley Field. But pitching here at Coors is a different animal. The Cubs are also a much stronger team offensively on the road than at home. This should be a slightly higher scoring game than yday and don't be scared off by the high total. 8* Over Cubs/Rockies

10* Over Pirates/Braves (7:20 ET): The Pirates' ship is sinking fast and it's not like I didn't see this coming. For most of the year, they've had a poor run differential and it's recently only gotten worse. A lot worse, in fact. Last night's 13-7 loss here in Atlanta means the Bucs have now been outscored by 84 runs this season. That's rapidly closing in on the Giants for the worst run diff in the entire National League & it's 4th worst in all of MLB. It's actually a worse run differential than 20-45 Kansas City (-72) & 23-41 Miami (-68). Bottom line is you should expect Pittsburgh to finish last in the NL Central by season's end. 

Why is any of this significant? Well, the Pirates' overall record is still 30-35, which isn't horrible, but it's also obviously very misleading given the info above. The gap in the team's actual and expected win total (+6) is the largest in all of MLB. So the bottom line is while the Pirates' record is subpar, it should actually be much worse. If you're a regular follower of mine, then you're probably sick of hearing about this. But I just feel it's very important to illustrate how important the run differential metric truly is. 

The Pirates have been giving up runs in bunches recently, including 13 yday. That should continue today w/ Chris Archer on the hill. Archer has an 0-3 TSR on the road this year w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. His last time out, which resulted in a 6-1 win over these same Braves, was the 1st time since April 21st that Archer didn't allow at least four runs. The Pirates' bullpen (5.56 ERA) is pretty bad too. The only thing keeping me from a play on Atlanta here is Mike Foltynewicz simply hasn't been the same pitcher he was last season. The team is 1-7 in his 8 starts, largely due to a 5.89 ERA. He has a 7.18 ERA at home. He opposed Archer his last time out and gave up multiple HR's for a second straight start. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Braves' last 11 home games vs. a team w/ a losing record (includes last night). 10* Over Pirates/Braves

8* LA Dodgers (10:07 ET): The Dodgers have clearly emerged as the team to beat in the National League as their .682 win percentage is baseball's best. A 1-0 shutout of the Giants on Sunday made it 13 wins in the last 16 games. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves today as they send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound in search of his 10th win. So do I. Ryu has been absolutely lights out this season in compiling a 9-1 record (13 starts) w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. His last start, which saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Arizona, was the 5th time in his L6 starts that Ryu did not give up any runs. 

In fact, Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start all season! Since May 1st, he's taken the mound seven times and given up a grand total of three runs in 52 2/3 IP. That's absolutely preposterous. That's a 0.51 ERA and 0.646 WHIP, for those keeping score at home. The Dodgers have won four of those last seven starts in shutout fashion, including the last two. By the way, Ryu is 2-0 in three career starts vs. the Angels w/ a 0.83 ERA. He's even held Mike Trout hitless in seven at-bats.

The Angels got beat up Sunday, losing 9-3 to Seattle. Consider the weekend a missed opportunity as the Mariners came in having not won a series of any kind since mid-May and none on the road since April. But they took two of three from the Angels, who must now step up in class to face the high-powered Dodgers. Griffin Canning has pitched well for the AL's LA team, but he won't be enough to beat the cross-town rivals as the Angels have dropped six of their last seven series openers. 8* LA Dodgers 

8* Under Rangers/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Chris Sale and Boston had a really rough start to the season, but individually and collectively, they seem to have turned things around. While still 2-7 in 13 trips to the mound, Sale has come a long way from the end of April when the Red Sox were 0 for 6 in his starts. His TSR is now 4-9 and the Red Sox have won 23 of 38 overall. That said, they did just drop three of four here at home to Tampa Bay over the weekend. But Monday sets up a lot more favorably for them as they face a Rangers team they went 6-1 against last season.

The price (money line) is high here for a reason and a lot of it has to do w/ the fact Sale is starting to look like his old dominant self again. Last time out, he went the distance, allowing only three hits w/ 10 strikeouts in an 8-0 win over Kansas City. Beating the Royals is obviously not something worth crowing about at this point, but it was the seventh time in the last nine starts that Sale struck out 10 or more batters. He has a 0.996 WHIP for the year, which is very good, and that number is down to 0.762 over his last three starts. The Under has cashed in 7 of Sale's last 8 starts, including the L4.

Not to be outdone, Mike Minor threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings for the Rangers his last time out. Minor has pitched well this season, posting a 2.54 ERA in 13 starts. Like Sale, his last three have all stayed Under the total. So have six of his last seven. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact Minor has not given up more than 3 ER in any of his last eight starts. The Under had been 8-2 in Texas' L10 games before yday's 9-8 loss to the A's. Minor is facing a Red Sox lineup that was held to two runs or less in three of the four games vs. Tampa Bay over the weekend. 8* Under Rangers/Red Sox

6* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Might as well call for the Brewers to finish off the sweep here as the Pirates' ship is sinking fast. I had the Over in Friday's opener, which Milwaukee won (10-4), then yday's free play on the Brew Crew was another winner. Just to rehash for anyone "late to the party," the reason I've targeted the Bucs as a clear fade is their very poor YTD run differential (now -75), which to me is a clear indication that this NOT a .500-level team. Expect them to finish last in the NL Central (where I predicted them to be at the start of the season). 

They might have a 30-33 overall record, but Pittsburgh has now been outscored by 75 runs this year. That's the second worst differential in the entire National League (easily the worst in the division) and closing in on the Giants for the worst. That run differential is more indicative of a 24-win team. The Pirates' gap between actual & expected wins (+6) is the largest in all of baseball and a clear indication that they've actually overachieved to this point in the season. We've already seen the regression set in w/ the Bucs dropping 13 of their last 19 games. 

Milwaukee is heading in the other direction. They've won three straight and are 37-28 overall. They send Chase Anderson to the bump today and he held Pittsburgh to two runs the last time he faced them. But the real key here is how the Brewers' offense has feasted on Pirates' pitching, scoring 46 runs against them this season in just six games. In three of the five wins, they've scored 10 or more runs.  Injuries have decimated the Pittsburgh rotation, leading to arms such as Steven Brault being used on a regular basis. Brault has a 4.76 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in four starts. He needed 93 pitches to get through four innings his last time out, an ominous sign. 6* Milwaukee

8* Under Braves/Marlins (1:10 ET): The Under was a winner for us yday in this matchup, so why not come right back w/ it again today? After all, Miami remains the lowest scoring team in the National League and has done next to nothing at the plate in this series. Seriously. They've scored just one run in two games and it came Friday, in the ninth inning, on an infield single. Yesterday's was as low-scoring as it gets w/ the Braves winning 1-0 in a game that featured just seven combined hits. Atlanta has really had Miami's number this year as they're 7-1 against them, holding them to three runs or fewer in all but one game! Take the Under again. 

Miami has collected just nine hits the last two days and doesn't figure to be any better offensively on Sunday. They'll face Max Fried, who is yet another of Atlanta's unheralded revelations in its starting rotation. Truthfully, Fried hasn't pitched all that well of late. But he's also yet to have a change to face this weak Marlins lineup in 2019. Fried still has a 7-3 record and 3.78 ERA, but will need to pitch well here as the team's acquisition of Dallas Keuchel puts Fried's spot in the rotation in question. 

What will keep the Marlins in this game is having Pablo Lopez on the mound. Lopez threw six shutout innings at Milwaukee his last time out and he's got a 1.84 ERA/0.784 WHIP in five home starts this season (Under is 4-1). Opponents are batting just .139 against Lopez's curveball. While he has already faced Atlanta several times and yet to come away w/ a victory, the Braves haven't done much at the plate the L2 days either. The last time he faced them, he did hold them scoreless for six innings, allowing just three hits. The Under is now 10-3 the L13 head to head meetings between these teams. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over Twins/Tigers (1:10 ET): Saturday was the biggest crowd at Comerica Park since Opening Day and the home team rewarded its fans w/ a 9-3 win over the first place Twins. To say the Tigers hadn't been good at home recently would be a mild understatement. They were just 1-13 their previous 14 games here and an offense that is dead last in runs scored (in all of MLB) is the primary culprit. But a matchup w/ the top scoring team in all of MLB (Minnesota) figured to lead to more scoring than usual this weekend in the Motor City. Take the Over here. 

The Twins came into yday averaging a whopping 6.6 runs per game on the road. That's probably unsustainable, but so too is the run that starter Jake Odorizzi is currently on. Incredibly, Odorizzi has not given up a single run in six of his last seven starts, including each of the last three. Odorizzi, who has a 9-0 TSR his L9 starts, has a 0.65 ERA/0.816 WHIP his L7 starts and a 0.00 ERA/0.674 WHIP his L3. Having one-hit the Tigers back on May 10th, you'd figure Odorizzi (AL ERA leader) will pitch well today. However, I have to point out that the Over is 5-1 his L6 road starts. 

Detroit will be sending Ryan Carpenter to the mound Sunday. Like Odorizzi, he's pitched pretty well of late. Unlike Odorizzi, he doesn't have a large body of work to "lean on" and his overall numbers are still poor, especially at home. He has an 8.44 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in three previous starts here. As I said earlier, the Twins offense is leading MLB in runs scored. Following a rare off-day at the plate, you have to figure they're going to bounce back today. They are 10-4-2 Over their L16 games vs. left-handed starters and Carpenter is a southpaw. They'd scored at least five runs in six of their previous seven games before ydya. 8* Over Twins/Tigers

10* Washington (10:10 ET): As I continually harp on, a team's won-loss record can be quite misleading sometimes. Take these teams, for example. Yes, San Diego has won the first two games (both by final scores of 5-4) and has the better record. They are now 33-31 on the season, but have been outscored by 25 runs. Washington, despite being seven games below .500 (28-35), actually has a slightly better YTD run differential (at -16). The key to the Padres season, as we've seen the past two days, has been an ability to win one-run games. Their 16-6 record in such contests is baseball's best.

Inevitably, that WL record in one-run games should begin regressing to the mean. Most teams finish w/ a record near .500 in one-run games over the course of a full season. A record like the Padres have should be considered extremely fortunate. Consider only one other team (Giants) has more than 12 one-run victories this season. Tonight is when the tide of this series should officially turn as the Nats send Max Scherzer to the mound.  Despite still having a stunning 3-10 team start record this season, Scherzer has been pretty ridiculous of late.

Scherzer's L3 starts have have seen him allow only two runs and 14 hits in 20 IP (0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) w/ a 30-4 KW ratio. Now San Diego starter Eric Lauer has been almost as good. He's got a 1.47 ERA and 0.709 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, but the thing is that he's made it a full six innings only twice during that span. Scherzer has gone at least six innings eight straight times. He also has a 2.37 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. San Diego. The Padres have had to come from behind to win each of the last two days. Not today. 10* Washington

8* Under Braves/Marlins (4:10 ET): Atlanta was an easy winner for me Friday night as they came to Miami and took the series opener, 7-1. They jumped all over Marlins' starter Jose Urena, scoring all seven of their runs (six off Urena) in the first five innings. Miami's lone run (had only five hits) came in the bottom of the ninth. As discussed at length in yday's analysis, the Marlins are the lowest scoring team in the National League. They've played better of late, but that doesn't change the fact that they are still averaging only 3.1 runs per game at home this season. Saturday afternoon, I'll go w/ the Under.

The Braves had their way w/ Urena on Friday, as they often do. (Urena came into the game w/ a 2-7 lifetime record vs. Atlanta and a 6.07 ERA). I suspect it'll be a greater challenge today, facing Trevor Richards. This plays a major role in the shift from playing Atlanta on the money line to the Under. In his L3 starts, Richards has a 1.02 ERA and 0.849 WHIP. He's allowed only two runs in 17 2/3 IP during that time. The last two starts have seen him surrender a total of only three hits. Early in May saw Richards toss 4 1/3 scoreless innings against these Braves. 

So what I'm saying is that we should expect a much better start here from Richards than what we saw yday from Urena. We should also get a good start from Julio Teheran, who toes the rubber today for the visitors. Teheran comes in w/ a 1.15 ERA his L3 starts and going back to early May, he's allowed 1 ER or less six straight outings. It was five shutout innings his last time out vs. a Detroit team whose offensive numbers are pretty comparable to those of Miami. Teheran threw six shutout innings against the Marlins in his one previous start against them this season. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over White Sox/Royals (2:15 ET): Perhaps it'll come off as a 'hot take' but I consider the Royals to be a lot closer to the White Sox than the standings say they are. They've definitely played better than the team right in front of them in the American League Central, Detroit, who has been outscored by a 102 run margin this season (2nd worst in all of MLB). KC has a -67 run differential. The White Sox are -51. Those respective run differentials say that the Royals have played more to the level of a 25-win team (actual record 20-43). The White Sox run differential is indicative of a 26-win team (actual record 29-33). 

One positive on this White Sox team has been the pitching of Lucas Giolito.  He has a 2.54 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 11 starts w/ the team going 9-2. He's a perfect 5 for 5 on the road w/ a 1.80 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. His last three starts overall, all wins, have seen him produce a 1.11 ERA and 0.575 WHIP. I'm not convinced he can keep it up though. This will be the 4th time the Royals have faced him this season. Giolito's last six starts have all stayed Under. That's a streak I see ending this afternoon. 

Kansas City goes w/ Brad Keller here. He has a pretty high WHIP for the year (1.449) as he's given up 19 hits his L2 starts (13 IP). He just faced off w/ Giolito on 5.28 and allowed 10 hits in 6 IP.  That same game also saw Giolito allow three runs, his most in any of those last six starts. These teams went Over the total last night w/ the Royals winning 6-4 (told you they were better!). Prior to that though, KC had lost six in a row and given up at least five runs in every game. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times Giolito has started and the opponent scored 5+ runs in its previous game. The Over is also now 6-1-1 in the Royals last eight home games. 8* Over White Sox/Royals

8* Under Mariners/Angels (10:07 ET): In addition to liking the Angels, I also like the Under here. The regression of Seattle's offense is something I talked about in the other writeup. Same w/ the prowess of Angels starter Andrew Heaney. Marco Gonzales did get obliterated by the Angels last week, giving up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but won't be that bad this time around. His career numbers vs. the Angels aren't that bad. Problem is, like I said in the other writeup, the Mariners offense has scored no more than four runs for him in each of his last seven starts, all of which have been team losses. With the Angels (hopefully) winning, we will likely avoid playing the bottom of the ninth here and that's always nice when having the Under. 8* Under Mariners/Angels

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I don't need much reason to fade Seattle as I feel as I was way ahead of the curve on this one. The Mariners started the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, but I implored anyone who would listen (or read) to not buy in as this is a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. It's not like the front office didn't make it clear in the offseason that they weren't trying to be a contender this year. Plus, last year's 89-win team was a total mirage as it was actually outscored by 34 runs. They were due to regress this year and regress they have, winning only 13 of its last 51 games after winning 13 of the first 15! They are buried in last in the AL West, 5.5 games back of this weekend's opponent, Los Angeles.

These division rivals just met last weekend, up in Seattle, and the Angels took two of three. Starting for one of those two victories was Andrew Heaney, who has brought some much needed stability to this Halos' starting rotation. In two starts, he's allowed just five runs and that actually undersells his performance as he's allowed only seven hits and has 18 K's in 11 IP. He has a 0.727 WHIP. The Mariners are just 5-14 in games against left-handed starters this year and - just as I said it would two months ago - their offense has really begun to slow down. They are batting a collective .214 the L7 games. 

The Angels lost yday, 7-4 to Oakland, one night removed from a 10-9 win where they rallied back from an early six-run deficit. But this is a worse spot for Seattle, who had to go 14 innings Thursday afternoon and lost 8-7 to Houston in a game that lasted 5+ hours. Though Friday's starter Marco Gonzales is 4-1 lifetime vs. the Angels (11 starts), including a 3.10 ERA in five starts here in LA, he was hammered for 10 runs by them last weekend. The team has lost seven straight times w/ him on the mound and scored no more than four runs in any of those games. 8* LA Angels

10* Over Pirates/Brewers (8:05 ET): I haven't hesitated in going against the Pirates recently and have been mostly successful in doing so. Reason being the Bucs have a won-loss record which simply does not correspond to their (very poor) YTD run differential. Despite playing roughly .500 ball through the first 61 games (30-31), Pittsburgh has actually been outscored by 67 runs this year, which is the second worst differential in the entire National League (easily the worst in the division). That kind of run differential is more indicative of a 24-win team. The Pirates' gap between actual & expected wins (+6) is the largest in all of baseball. 

But I won't be playing against the Bucs here. Instead we look at the total as they open up a three-game set in Milwaukee. The Brewers were able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep at the hands of Miami, here at Miller Park no less, by winning 5-1 yesterday. But they'd given up 24 runs (includes 16-0 loss Tuesday!) the two games prior. They are heavy favorites here, but beware of the fact that starter Brandon Woodruff just gave up six runs in his last start, which came against these same Pirates. That was a season-high as were the 10 hits he allowed (in just 4 IP). Woodruff now has an 8.31 ERA in four career appearances vs. Pittsburgh. 

The Pirates have now collected at least eight hits in 13 consecutive ballgames. So offense hasn't been a problem for them. But the starting rotation is in tatters right now, which is why we have the likes of Rookie Davis starting tonight. Ironically, this is Rookie's third season in the bigs. It'll be his first start this year, but fifth overall appearance. He went 1-3 w/ a 5.35 ERA down in Triple-A Indianapolis.  As a starter for a bad Reds team in 2017, he went 1-3 w/ an 8.63 ERA. He has a 13.50 ERA in two previous appearances vs. Milwaukee. Remember that this is a battle of the league's top HR hitter (Christian Yelich of Milwaukee) and top run producer (Pittsburgh's Josh Bell). The Over is 25-8-1 in Pittsburgh's last 34 games, including 3-1 the last series w/ Milwaukee. The Over is 5-1 in Woodruff's last six home starts as well. 10* Over Pirates/Brewers

6* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Miami has been playing much better of late, but Atlanta was pretty clearly priced too low for this series opener, especially considering they'll have Mike Soroka on the hill. Thus far, Soroka has been pretty much lights out w/ a 1.41 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in nine starts. He'll be facing a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs in the National League, even after winning 13 of its last 19. Yesterday saw the Fish revert back to their "usual ways" scoring only one run in a loss at Milwaukee. They average just 3.2 per game here at home. 

Back on May 4th, Soroka faced Miami and permitted only a pair of unearned runs in seven innings. He allowed just three hits as well. Every start this season has seen Soroka allow 3 ER or fewer. In fact, the three he allowed in his last start (10-5 win over Detroit) were a season-high. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 1 ER in any start and had only allowed two total in two starts because of unearned runs. One of the clear front-runners for NL Rookie of the Year, Soroka went 3-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA in May (five starts). He last lost a decision all the way back on April 18th, which was his season debut. 

There's a lot of buzz in the Atlanta clubhouse right now due to the impending arrival of another starter, Dallas Keuchel, who was just signed as a free agent. But it's Soroka that's key here going against this putrid Miami lineup. Also, starting here for the Marlins is Jose Urena, who has a 2-7 record and 6.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves don't like Urena either as he threw at Ronald Acuna Jr last season. Urena has been better of late (5 straight quality starts), but he won't be able to outduel Soroka here. Miami 2-10 as ML home dog of +125 to +175 this year. 6* Atlanta

10* Over A's/Angels (10:05 ET): It feels like it's been awhile since we "checked in" on either of these two teams. Oakland is a club that I earmarked for some regression this season after 2018's surprising run to the postseason. Right now, they're a game below .500 as they've dropped six of seven following a season-best 10 game win streak. The Angels are right behind, two games below .500, following yday's 10-9 victory. They've very much been the definition of an average ballclub, even though they have arguably the best player in the sport (Mike Trout) on their roster. 

I'm looking for tonight's game to be a lot like yesterday's high-scoring bonanza. The series opener was a 4-2 win by the A's, but they're giving up an average of 6.3 runs per game during this 1-6 slide of theirs. Conversely, Los Angels is averaging 6.3 runs in its last seven games. That doesn't even include all the runs they produced in the last series w/ the A's, which came right before. All three of those games went Over with the Halos scoring 23 runs total. So in the last five games they've faced A's pitching, LA has scored 35 runs. Yesterday was the third time in the L8 games overall that they scored 10 or more. 

On May 7th, Oakland's Michael Fiers threw his second career no-hitter. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, but still has a 4.78 ERA and I've got questions. The road has been unkind to Fiers this season as he's 0-2 in six starts (1-5 TSR) w/ a 7.76 ERA and 1.575 WHIP. He has a 5.25 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Angels. Opposing Fiers here will be Tyler Skaggs, who hasn't pitched well in his career vs. Oakland. We're talking a 2-7 record in 11 starts and a 5.07 ERA. The A's are a surprisingly strong team at the plate when they hit the road, averaging 5.8 runs per game. The Angels are no slouches at home either, averaging 5.3 rpg. 10* Over A's/Angels

7* NY Mets (12:10 ET): The Mets blanked the Giants last night, 7-0, and now can take the series w/ a win Thurs afternoon. Last night was somewhat of a "bittersweet" victory for the Metropolitans as - just hours after his return from the DL - Robinson Cano was lost to a hamstring injury. Still, that hardly mattered w/ Jason Vargas tossing a CG shutout (his 1st in two years). The Giants aren't a good team as they now have the worst run differential (-77) in the entire National League. I have zero hesitation fading them in this spot. The Mets are now 10-2 their L12 home games. 

Starting today for the home team will be Zack Wheeler. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and while his ERA is 4.22, his WHIP is 0.821. Despite winning all three starts, a case could definitely be made that Wheeler has been somewhat unfortunate to give up 10 runs in 21 1/3 IP. After all, he's allowed only 16 hits and three walks. The home run has been a bit of an issue (five allowed), but he has 23 strikeouts as well. The Giants are NOT a strong offensive ballclub as they are 28th in runs scored, not to mention 29th in both team batting average and OPS. Wheeler has a 3.03 ERA in six previous starts vs. SF. 

The Giants will go w/ Shaun Anderson in this spot, hoping he can replicate the performance in his last start when he pitched a career-high seven innings and allowed just two runs for his first big-league win. But that was also at the expense of lowly Baltimore. Both bullpens have been overworked recently (well, not the Mets yday) and if that becomes a factor today, it's likely to be w/ the Giants, who are not getting many long efforts from their starters. Anderson didn't make it past the fifth in any of his first three starts. The Giants are 1-6 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. 7* NY Mets

8* Under Orioles/Rangers (8:05 ET): These two teams combined for 23 runs yday, a game Baltimore actually won (by a score of 12-11). Wins have been few and far between for the O's this season as they're tied for the worst record in the league right now (w/ KC) at 19-41 overall. They have - by far - the worst overall run differential (-120) and are tied for the most runs per game allowed (6.2). I expect the offense to be not nearly as prolific tonight in Arlington as we make a surprise move on the Under in a battle of teams accustomed to high-scoring games. 

Texas ranks near the bottom of the league in rpg allowed (27th) while also ranking near the top (2nd) in rpg scored. Despite this, they're still basically a 50/50 proposition when it comes to going Over as linesmakers have caught on and are posting high O/U lines for their games on a consistent basis. Something else worth noting here is how Baltimore games are lower scoring on the road. We've also got a much stronger starting pitching matchup (on paper) for tonight, so that lends itself to the Under as well (more on that in a moment). The Under is 4-1 the L5 times Baltimore has been off a win. Yesterday's game also matched a season-high in runs and hits for them. 

It's Mike Minor going for Texas tonight. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts and has a 2.74 ERA. He's allowed 2 ER or less eight times. I have confidence that Minor will pitch well here against a team that came into this series having been held to two runs or less in four of its last five games. Facing Minor will be John Means, one of Baltimore's few decent starters. Means has a 3.06 ERA and 1.106 WHIP, but a 3-6 team start record as he typically does not get much run support. Thus the Under is 7-2 when he starts. Only two of his starts (both Overs) have seen more than eight total runs scored. 8* Under Orioles/Rangers

6* NY Yankees (7:07 ET): The Yankees suffered a surprise loss last night to the Blue Jays. "Surprise" in the sense that they (NY) were heavily favored & the Jays came in riding a season-worst six-game losing streak. But that's over now as Toronto benefited from the rare "off-night" from the NY offense, though it's not like the team wearing pinstripes didn't have its fair amount of chances. They went 1 for 12 w/ RISP, leaving 11 men on base, and thus failed to score at least four runs for the first time in the L15 games. But I think they bounce back here. 

Even w/ the win yday, Toronto still has lost 10 of its last 12. Remember what I wrote in yday's analysis ... "Toronto comes into the week ranked dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (.205) at home and they're also right near the bottom in both runs scored and OPS." They were fortunate last night in that an injury-riddled Yankees lineup didn't perform up to its usual standard. The Blue Jays have still been held to two runs or fewer 23 times this season, the most for any American League club. After a win this season, Toronto has gone just 7-14. Off a loss, the Yankees are 13-7 (and 101-57 the L3 yrs). 

Making the challenge even tougher here for the Jays is the fact they have to go up against James Paxton. While recent efforts haven't gone long, Paxton still sports a 5-0 team start record in his L5 starts and hasn't given up an earned run in four of them. So, he doesn't need much run support, yet he figures to get more than Masahiro Tanaka did yday as the Yanks offense still averages over 6.0 rpg on the road. While just like yday, I like this game to go Under (see elsewhere in three-pack), the Yanks probably won't have much issue w/ Tyler Thornton (6.23 ERA, 1.577 WHIP, 0-3 at home) even though they've never faced him. This is the 1st time the Yankees have been off B2B losses since April 30th-May 1 (in Arizona). They haven't lost three straight since a five-game slide very early in the year (which included them being swept by Houston). 6* NY Yankees

8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): So as alluded to in the Yankees writeup, I also like the Under here. I cashed the Under in last night's matchup, which ended up being a surprise 4-3 win by the Blue Jays. It was the 1st time in 15 games that the NY offense failed to score at least four runs. Of course, they are banged up right now and w/o several key hitters (no Judge, Bird, Stanton or Gregorius). Something else I pointed out in yday's analysis is that - moving forward - it's going to be difficult for the Yankees to maintain their current runs per game average (6.1) on the road. I like them to win today, but it'll have to come in low-scoring fashion. 

One thing the Yankees won't have to worry about here is James Paxton, who gets the starting nod. I touched on this some in the other writeup on the game, but Paxton has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and hasn't given up a single earned run in four of those. Last time out, it was four no-hit innings vs. San Diego. He's working on six days rest here. Those L5 starts have seen Paxton allow only four runs total (one unearned), in 26 2/3 innings. The Under is also 5-2 the L7 times the Yankees have been off a loss. 

 Paxton should have little difficulty facing a Toronto lineup that has been held to two runs or fewer an AL-high 23 times. The Blue Jays' team batting average of .208 here at Rogers Centre is the lowest by any team at home in all of baseball. Yesterday may have snapped a six-game losing skid, but the Jays are still averaging less than three full runs per game over the last week while batting a collective .211. Tyler Thornton has not pitched well at home for them either, but the Yanks lineup he'll be facing here is missing some key hitters (like I said earlier) and the Under is now 34-16-1 the L51 meetings here in Toronto. Also, the Under has cashed six straight times w/ tonight's ump (Ed Hickox) behind the plate. 8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays

7* Washington (1:05 ET): I've been incredibly disappointed by the Nationals' start to the season, but at least there are injuries to blame here. The good news is that there's still a lot of time left to rectify the situation and no one is running away w/ the NL East. The Nats are a team I earmarked for improvement in 2019, despite the defection of Bryce Harper to the division rival Phillies, as last year's team was better than the record showed. They did win yday, 9-5 over the White Sox, and should make it a sweep of this short Interleague series on Wednesday. 

The White Sox are only two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 47 runs, which tells me bad times are ahead. Regular followers of mine know that I am firmly of the belief that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. For the sake of reference, Washington is six games below .500 right now, but has only been outscored by 16 runs this season. That - and the homefield edge - explains why the Nats can be such prohibitive favorites in this one. The Nats have also won three straight overall and do have the "cache" as well.

There are few troubling trends for the White Sox heading into this one: (1) they are just 10-20 in day games this year (55-92 L3 seasons) and (2) they are 12-29 their L41 Interleague games. I know Dylan Covey pitched well for them his last time out, but that was at home. On the road, Covey has a 7.36 ERA and an 0-3 record. I know the Washington bullpen can be a pain, but starter Anibal Sanchez threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball in his last start and has allowed only 3 ER in his last 16 1/3 IP. 7* Washington

10* Over Dodgers/D'backs (9:40 ET): It was a rare low-scoring effort from Dodger Blue last night, but they still won (3-1), their sixth victory in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. This is pretty clearly "the team to beat" in the National League this year and tonight they have Hyun-Jin Ryu on the bump, which has them as massive ML favorites to defeat Arizona yet again. It'll be just the 2nd time this season that LA has been priced above -175 on the ML when away from home and for good reason. Ryu has a 1.48 ERA & 0.808 WHIP after 11 starts and hasn't allowed a single run in four of his last five trips to the mound. 

Yet, thanks to that Dodgers' offense, there have been more Ryu starts that have gone Over than Under. LA is the NL's top scoring team at 5.1 runs per game and they'd scored at least six for Ryu in four consecutive starts before a 2-0 win over the Mets last week. While Ryu allowed just 3 ER in 45 2/3 IP in May and did shut down Arizona back in March, his career ERA here at Chase Field remains 4.79 in seven starts. This has always been a pretty "hitter friendly" park and the home team is averaging a solid 5.3 rpg overall this season. That's tied for 2nd most in the National League. 

So w/ a matchup of the NL's two highest scoring teams, going Over only seems logical. The D'backs will go w/ Taylor Clarke here. He's making his first start at home Tuesday and is coming off a subpar performance last week against Colorado where he allowed five runs in just two innings. Granted, that was at Coors Field, but facing the Dodgers lineup isn't all that different from an outing in the high altitude. The Over is 5-1 the L6 times these NL West rivals have met & is a perfect 5-0 the L5 times tonight's umpire (Marvin Hudson) has been behind the plate. 10* Over Dodgers/D'backs

8* Boston (8:15 ET): The Red Sox really struggled out of the gate in 2019, but that may very well have been a reflection of their lax approach to Spring Training. The reigning World Champs have climbed back over .500 (30-29) as they've gone 19-12 over the L31 games. They'd actually dropped four in a row prior to Sunday night's 8-5 win in New York, their first time beating the Yankees all season. But run differential (+31) indicates that Boston is "just fine" moving forward and should be at least a Wild Card when the playoffs roll around. I like the Sox quite a bit in tonight's series opener at KC. 

The Royals probably aren't as bad as their 19-40 record, which is second worst in all of baseball, just one game ahead of Baltimore. But they simply can't seem to get out of their own way and this series looks to be a terrible matchup on paper for them. They come in on a three-game losing streak and have won only four times since mid-May. They're 1-6 the L7 games, averaging less than three runs per game. Thus, it's going to be very tough here to compete against a Boston offense that ranks 6th in runs per game and is 7th in OPS. Kansas City is 21st and 20th in those two categories. They are also a horrible 8-23 in night games.

The starting matchup would also seem to favor Boston here, even though Glenn Sparkman has the better numbers compared to Eduardo Rodriguez. But that's a real limited sample size for Sparkman (just two starts) and the last time we saw him was in the "opener" role and he gave up four runs in a single inning before getting ejected. Rodriguez is 5-1 w/ a 3.93 ERA his L9 starts (8-1 TSR) and is coming off perhaps his best outing of the year as he held Houston to 1 run in 6 IP and got the 'W' as a +155 ML dog. 8* Boston

8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): There wasn't much scoring Sunday "North of the Border" in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Nor has their been much offense "down the road" at Rogers Centre from the hometown Blue Jays. Toronto comes into the week ranked dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (.205) at home and they're also right near the bottom in both runs scored and OPS. It's not like the offense performs much better on the road either. Bottom line is that the call-up of Vlad Guerrero Jr has yet to pay the kind of dividends the front office was hoping for.

I don't look for the Jays to do much scoring tonight as they open up a three-game set w/ the Yankees. This team is in a REALLY bad way right now, having dropped six in a row as well as 10 of its last 11. In seven of those 11 defeats, they've been held to three runs or fewer. They just managed only nine in three games at Coors Field, which is typically the most "hitter-friendly" park in the sport. They've been held to two runs or less an AL-high 23 times this season. Tonight they must face old nemesis Masahiro Tanaka, who has gone 11-4 w/ a 2.69 ERA in 17 previous starts against them. Before a somewhat "rough" outing against San Diego one week ago, Tanaka had delivered four consecutive quality starts, three of them coming vs. division foes. 

Thus, Toronto could really use a good start here from Clayton Richard, who has looked decent in his only two previous starts. While each lasted just four innings, Richard has allowed only three runs total - on five hits. He'll face a depleted Yankees lineup here (no Judge, Bird, Stanton or Gregorius), one that has somehow managed to produce in spite of all the injuries. But a 6.3 rpg average on the road isn't something the Yanks will be able to maintain moving forward. This game will be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Yankees/Blue Jays

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Pirates have been a target of mine for some time now as their won-loss record simply does not "match up" w/ their YTD run differential. While sporting a 28-30 record, the Bucs have actually been outscored this season by a whopping 68 runs. That's third worst in the National League and a lot closer to the likes of Miami (21 wins) and San Francisco (24) than any of the teams in their own division. Bottom line is that no team has exceeded its "expected win total" (based on run diff) more than this one as they are +6. I expect the losing to continue Monday vs. Atlanta. 

Pittsburgh just dropped three of four in their last series (w/ Milwaukee). Since I first wrote about this club's impending downfall (back on May 21st), they have gone 4-10 overall, including 2-8 here at PNC Park. It hasn't helped that they played 27 games in 27 days prior to Monday's off day. But they are now just 11-17 in home games for the year. A big issue that the Pirates are facing right now is injuries to the starting rotation. The team has had to turn to some less than stellar arms and the results are about what you'd expect. Tonight, it will be Steven Brault starting. While he does have a 3-0 TSR, that's very misleading as his ERA & WHIP are 5.54 and 1.615 respectively. 

Atlanta has generally played well of late, winning 14 of their last 21 games. A big key here is the price range as they are 15-5 the L3 seasons as a road favorite of -125 to -175, including a perfect 4-0 in 2019. They send their own southpaw - Max Fried - to the bump on Monday. Fried has a 7-3 record in 11 starts w/ a 3.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. So his numbers are a lot better than his counterpart's. The Braves have a winning record on the road overall this season and have also fared better in games vs. LH starters than Pittsburgh has (10-5 vs. 6-9). It really can't be understated how poorly the Pirates have played at home as they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg here. That's the worst margin in the entire Senior Circuit. 8* Atlanta

9* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): It's the first time matching up this season for these two teams and quite frankly, neither is playing well right now. However, there is a big difference between getting swept by the mighty Dodgers (what happened to Phillies) and losing two in a row at home to lowly Miami (Padres' fate). San Diego has not played well of late (2-5 L7 games overall), a point that was driven home w/ consecutive 9-3 home losses to the Marlins over the weekend. The Padres are now below .500 at Petco Park this season and I don't see that changing after Monday.

A swarm of bees delaying yday's game for about 20 minutes was the only excitement for the home team yday here at Petco. The Padres' offense seemed rather lifeless w/ two of their three runs and two of their four hits not coming until the ninth inning. It figures to be yet another tough day at the plate tonight against Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who comes in red hot. Nola has yet to drop a decision in 2019 (6-0 in 12 starts) and has gone 4-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA his L5 outings. The team has won each of the last six times Nola has taken the mound. In five previous starts vs. SD, Nola has a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP w/ the Padres batting only .180 against him. 

The Phils were blanked 8-0 by the Dodgers yday, their 4th loss in a row overall. Yet they still lead the NL East w/ a 33-26 record. They were outscored 18-6 in the three games at LA, but this series is a drop in class from that one. San Diego, despite a winning overall record, has actually been outscored by 28 runs this season. The Bryce Harper-Manny Machado matchup will be hyped to death here, simply because of the salaries the two individuals commanded, but pay little mind to it. Harper's team is the better one. San Diego goes w/ Eric Lauer here and despite a recent string of quality efforts, he's still got a 4.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the year as opponents are batting .259 against him. 9* Philadelphia 

10* Under Marlins/Padres (6:10 ET): Miami is perhaps the worst offensive team we have seen since the infamous "dead ball era" of baseball. They've scored 36 fewer runs than any other National League team and many have scored upwards of 100 more runs. Now they did put 9 on the board yday in a win here over San Diego. That was w/ a five run fourth inning, but I wouldn't look for a repeat of anything of the sort on Sunday. After all, the Marlins did finish last in runs scored in both April and May. San Diego isn't exactly known for hitting the cover off the baseball either; they are bottom five in all of MLB in runs scored as well. So take the Under in this matinee. 

Trevor Richards starts today for the road team. He started the year in poor form, going 0-5 in eight starts (0-8 TSR!) w/ a 4.46 ERA. But over the last three starts, he's 2-0 w/ a 2.37 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Richards is off his best outing of the year where he allowed only one run and two hits against the Giants. He also went a season-best seven innings. That made it three quality starts in a row where Richards allowed just five runs total. Even w/ the slow start to the year, Richards has allowed 1 or 0 ER five times in 2019 and he's allowed more than 3 ER only three times.

San Diego counters w/ Matt Strahm. He too is off B2B quality efforts. In fact, Strahm has allowed 3 ER or less in NINE consecutive outings. He's allowed just eight hits total in those L2 starts and the three runs he allowed last time out were actually his most in any trip to the mound since the very 1st start of the season. Six of his last seven starts have been quality ones and the one that wasn't was a 2-0 loss to the Dodgers where he went five innings and gave up just two runs. Runs should be scarce today w/ the two good starting pitchers and two bad offenses. 10* Under Marlins/Padres

8* Over Blue Jays/Rockies (3:10 ET): The Blue Jays are clearly NOT the focus of Toronto sports fans right now. Thankfully then, you have my research to tell you how absolutely putrid the baseball team's offensive numbers are at home. The Jays are batting just .205 at Rogers Centre, which is the lowest home team batting average in all of baseball. Fortunately for them, they aren't playing at home this weekend. Rather, they are at Coors Field, which happens to be the friendliest venue in the league for opposing hitters (and the host Rockies as well). Take the Over on Sunday. 

Friday's opener was the usual high-scoring affair in Denver as the Rockies prevailed 13-6. But yday was certainly lower scoring than expected. The Rockies won again, but this time it was only 4-2. Still, Colorado is #1 in the league in scoring at home and they have the highest team batting average and OPS. That's played a major role in them now being on a seven-game win streak (all at home). They just scored 183 runs total in May. But, even though they've been slightly better of late, the problem for them has been on the other side of the ledger as they are giving up more runs per game than they score! 

Toronto has been heading the wrong way for awhile now as they've lost 23 of their last 30 games, including five straight and eight of the last nine. But you can at least look for the bats to wake up today. They face righty Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.81 ERA and 1.65 ERA after nine starts. Predictably, those numbers get even higher at home and even more so in day games. Toronto has never faced him, but opponents have a very high batting average against Senzatela, particularly lefties. For the Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez has done his best on a bad team, but he was 0-4 w/ a 5.28 ERA in May. Despite yday's result, the Over remains 13-5 in the Rockies' last 18 home games and 8-2-2 in Toronto's L12 games overall. 8* Over Blue Jays/Rockies

7* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): Those pesky Pirates managed to beat the Brewers last night by a score of 9-4. That was fine by me (as I had the Over), but my view of the Bucs still has not changed. This is a bad baseball team masquerading as a .500 club. They have the NL's third worst run differential (at -64). so the fact they have a 28-28 WL record is highly misleading. As I've written about previously, Pittsburgh has the largest gap between actual & expected win totals (+7) in all of MLB. I'm 2 for 2 in this series already (had Milwaukee Thursday) and look to make it 3 for 3 here as it's back to the Brew Crew on Saturday. 

In the analysis for yday's game, I said to be wary of Jhoulys Chacin, who was starting for Milwaukee. He came into the game w/ a 1.625 WHIP his L3 starts and had poor career marks vs. the Pirates. Sure enough, he'd given up seven runs before the third innings was even complete. But I have no hesitation backing today's starter Brandon Woodruff, who checks in w/ a 7-1 record in 11 starts (9-2 TSR) to go along w/ a 3.22 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. Woodruff has been insane his L6 starts, allowing two or fewer runs every time out. He's allowed just six runs total in his last 38 IP. All six starts have resulted in Milwaukee victories. 

Eventually, Josh Bell will be unable to continue carrying this Pirates' lineup. Bell finished May w/ 94 total bases, the most by any player in that month since the great Willie Mays all the way back in 1958. Perhaps having to face Woodruff, who allowed just one hit in his last start (went eight innings) will be the start of Bell's inevitable regression at the plate. Also, Milwaukee has a huge pitching advantage in this game w/ Nick Kingman set to go for Pittsburgh. Kingman hasn't won as a starter since last July and has an 8.53 ERA in the role this season (three starts). The odds tell you "all you need to know" for this matchup (compare them to yday) and I love the idea of fading the Bucs off a win. 7* Milwaukee 

10* Over Royals/Rangers (4:05 ET): Texas is scoring runs in abundance this season w/ only Minnesota (best record in the league) averaging more. But the Rangers also give up their fair share too, allowing 5.3 rpg. The first two games of this series w/ the lowly Royals have both stayed Under, but I think this one bucks that trend. The Rangers' offense gets its shot at Homer Bailey, who has really struggled so far this season. Bailey has been particularly bad of late w/ a 9.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP his L3 starts. He figures to really struggle here in Arlington. Take the Over.

Now Bailey did allow just one run and three hits in 4 1/3 IP his last time out. But that should just serve to illustrate how bad he'd been in the previous two starts. One of them was against Texas and Bailey lasted just 4 1/3 while giving up six runs. Kansas City ended up losing that game 16-1! Now scoring might very well be more evenly distributed in this one, but still expect Texas to score its fair share. They average nearly a full 6.0 rpg at home this year. 

I actually happen to think the Royals are better than their record. But they've still allowed the 4th most runs in all of baseball. Just as was the case on May 16th, Bailey will be opposed by Lance Lynn here. Lynn is coming off B2B outstanding outings (21 K's in 13 IP) , but both were against Seattle, who is slumping. He also pitched well in that aforementioned game vs. Bailey, allowing just one run in 7 IP. But Lynn still has poor numbers at home this year (5.92 ERA, 1.602 WHIP), the Rangers' bullpen isn't very good and overall the team is giving up 5.3 rpg this year. They've allowed almost as many runs this season as KC has. Take my word for it - this is going to be a high-scoring game. 10* Over Royals/Rangers

10* Cleveland (2:10 ET): What a terrible start to this series for the Indians, who happen to have been on each of the last two days. They've lost to the White Sox by scores of 10-4 and 6-1, which simply shouldn't be happening if the Tribe still fashion themselves as a true playoff contender. Yes, Chicago is playing its best baseball of the season right now (season-high five-game win streak), but three of those wins were against the last place Royals. While the White Sox have managed to beat Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer the L2 days, I still think Cleveland is an outstanding value in this spot. 

The Indians actually scored the game's first run last night, on a Francisco Lindor HR, but that was it for them in terms of scoring. They did finish w/ nine hits, almost as many as the White Sox, but few got into scoring position and even then the team was 0 for 5 when they did. There were also four Cleveland errors, which didn't help. Look for the sloppiness to be cleaned up today though. I also like the Indians' hitters chances against the struggling Ivan Nova, who has a 6.52 ERA and 1.719 WHIP for Chicago. Nova was better his last time out (against KC), but there have been five starts where he's allowed 5+ runs. 

Now Nova did pitch well against the Indians earlier in the year. But that was in Cleveland. At home this year, he has a 11.81 ERA and 2.312 WHIP, so that's where the majority of bad starts have come. It should mentioned the Cleveland starter Jefrey Rodriguez has been hit relatively hard in each of his L3 starts, all losses. But he too pitched well earlier this season when he faced off w/ today's opponent (allowed 2 runs in 6 IP). This boils down to the fact that the White Sox have still been outscored by 42 runs this year, so it's a little misleading they have the same record as the Indians (-17). 10* Cleveland

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This is a big revenge spot for the Redbirds, who got swept out in Wrigley earlier this month. May has been mostly unkind to the Cardinals as they have lost 18 of 25. But they do return home on a positive note having downed the first place Phillies yday afternoon by a 5-3 count. Few, if any, will be happier to be back in the confines of Busch Stadium than today's starter Miles Mikolas, who has pitched quite well at home in 2019. He has a 3.15 ERA and 0.825 WHIP here in six starts, so it's a little surprising to see the team start record at only 3-3. Really, a compelling case can be made that the Cardinals are underachieving as a whole right now considering they have outscored their opponents this year, but are still a game below .500.

The Cubs were also able to avoid a sweep by winning yday. Theirs came at home, however, against the mighty Astros. They won 2-1, a real change of pace from recent games as the Over had hit each of the previous seven times the Cubs hit the field. As you might expect, they'd been giving up plenty of runs during that stretch, 50 total to be exact. Don't look for that to change here w/ Yu Darvish on the hill. Recently, Darvish had shown signs of improvement, but that was before he was hit hard by Cincinnati in his last outing, which saw him give up six runs and 12 hits. The Reds homered off him three times. The Cubs were very lucky to win that game 8-6.

Save for one bad outing (at Texas on 5.17), Mikolas has pitched pretty well this season. He's certainly well rested, having started just once in the last 13 days. That was exactly one week ago and he turned in a quality effort vs. Atlanta, giving up just three runs in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he did not have the same good fortune Darvish had in his last start and the Cards lost that game 5-2. But Mikolas has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in his L7 starts and I see him leading his team to a crucial NL Central victory on Friday night. 10* St. Louis

8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): My read on this matchup proved incorrect yday, but I'm still coming back w/ the Indians tonight. They are the superior side and while words such as "mercurial" and "inconsistent" could be used to describe Friday's starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, when he's at his best, he's one of the top starters in the game. The White Sox, even though they were able to win 10-4 yday, are not a very good ballclub. They actually own a slightly worse YTD run differential (-47) than the last place Royals (whom they swept earlier in the week).

Bauer has been subpar in five of his last six outings. That's pretty shocking for a pitcher that was considered to be on the "shortlist" for AL Cy Young candidates. One of the rougher outings actually came against these White Sox, at home, where he allowed seven runs in just five innings. But the good news for Bauer is that he's pitched better on the road this year than at Progressive Field. On the road, he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.064 WHIP. He also still has an 8-4 career record vs. the White Sox in 17 starts. Bauer has been a good "stopper" in the past for Cleveland as his TSR when the team allowed 5+ runs in its last game is 7-3. 

Chicago's current four-game win streak is a season-high, but poised to end today. Good news for Bauer and the Indians is that Dylan Covey is starting here for the White Sox. It's been a tough stretch for Covey, who has bounced back and forth between the big league club and Triple-A Charlotte. Nowhere has he been effective as he's winless in his L4 starts w/ a 5.75 ERA. Furthermore, he has a 4.24 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cleveland (0-4 TSR L4). Last time out, Covey allowed four runs for the third time in those L4 starts. Cleveland is still 27-12 the L39 games in this AL Central rivalry. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): I have zero hesitation in fading Pittsburgh right now (did so yday), but I'm a little bit more wary of doing so tonight as Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin has pitched no better than the struggling Chris Archer has for the Pirates. For those "new to the program" here, my pessimisstic outlook on the Bucs' future has to do w/ their very bad YTD run differential (-69) and how it fails to correspond to their overall record (just one game under .500). That run differential took another big hit yday as they lost the series opener to the Brew Crew, 11-5. 

If Milwaukee was able to put 11 runs on the board yday, surely another strong offensive effort is to be expected here facing Archer. Archer is one of the few regular members of the Pirates' rotation still standing (i.e. not injured), but his continued health has hardly helped the team as he's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ an 8.56 ERA and 2.048 WHIP. That doesn't even include him giving up six runs in just four innings to the Dodgers, another loss back on April 26th. In fact, his team start record his L6 times out is 0-6! Career numbers vs. Milwaukee aren't good (6.60 ERA in three starts) and Archer hasn't delivered a quality start since April 13th. He's allowed a HR in five straight starts and the Brewers have been hitting a lot of balls over the fence recently (four yday).

The Pirates can hit too, specifically Josh Bell, who has 24 extra-base hits this month. So consider Chacin warned. Chacin hasn't pitched well lately, also losing his L3 starts (1.625 WHIP). He has a 5.90 ERA and 1.493 WHIP on the road (1-5 TSR) and the Pirates have generally had his number. Chacin is 2-6 w/ a 4.21 ERA against them in 12 career starts, including 0-3 last season. The Over is 10-1 the L11 times the Pirates have faced a starter w/ a WHIP higher than 1.30 (Chacin's is 1.374 for the year). 10* Over Brewers/Pirates

7* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The White Sox may be coming off a three-game sweep here, but considering who the opponent was (Royals), that's really not all that impressive. The Southsiders remain a poor ballclub, which can quickly be confirmed by their -53 run differential that is tied for third worst in the American League. Things weren't looking so good for the Indians recently either as they followed a somewhat disastrous 4-7 homestand (three of the wins were over Baltimore) w/ a blowout loss in Boston (12-5 on Memorial Day). But the Tribe turned it around the L2 days w/ B2B wins at Fenway, including a big 14-9 win yday where they finished w/ a season-high 18 hits. I look for that to "carry over" into this weekend series. 

With the Indians hitting better now, that should take some of the pressure off Thursday's starter Carlos Carrasco, who struggled his last time out. But that was against a quality foe in Tampa Bay. Prior to that, he'd been pretty impressive, not even giving up a single run in four of his previous six starts. Two of those were against these White Sox, whom he held scoreless for a total of 12 innings. The Indians won the two games 5-0 and 9-0, the former coming at home and the latter here in Chicago.

Both times the White Sox got blanked by Carrasco, it was Manny Banuelos starting for them. Don't look for the third time to be the charm for Banuelos as he carries a poor 9.49 ERA and 2.108 WHIP (six starts) into Thursday. In those previous two starts vs. Cleveland, he surrendered 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings and five home runs. Look for him to come out on the "short end of the stick" yet again as Cleveland is a perfect 2-0 this season priced as a road favorite of -175 or higher and 33-15 in that role the L3 seasons. 7* Cleveland

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): We unsuccessfully went against Pittsburgh yday, but will fade them again today for virtually the same reasons. The Pirates may have a .500 record (27-27) on the year, but are actually playing to the level of a team that should have a .370 win percentage based on their very poor YTD run differential (-63). That run differential is 3rd worst right now in the entire National League, so I was very surprised that the Bucs were able to leave Cincinnati w/ a split of the four-game series. But this weekend finds them playing an even tougher opponent and this first game should be a loss.

The Brewers are in second place in the NL Central, only three games up on Pittsburgh, even w/ a vastly superior YTD run differential. A nice little edge for the Brew Crew here is that they had yday off. Their last series was a short one as they split two games in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pirates have played four games in the last three days (doubleheader Monday, which does them no favors. Back to the run differential for a moment - as I stated yday, no team has a bigger gap between actual and expected (based on run diff) win total than Pittsburgh. Now they're not only overachieving (and set to regress), but also in a bad situational spot. 

Milwaukee is 30-18 after an off-day and will send Chase Anderson to the bump Thursday night. Anderson has worked out of the bullpen and started four times. He has a 2.55 ERA as a starter and while he's yet to go longer than five innings in any outing, he's also never given up more than 3 ER. The Brewers have a good bullpen as well. Pittsburgh goes w/ Joe Musgrove, who I went against in his last start (vs. the Dodgers) and he gave up six runs in five innings. Musgrove now has a poor 6.10 ERA here at PNC Park. The Brewers are simply a better team here as I'm going to look to fade the Pirates regularly due to their poor run differential. 10* Milwaukee

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): High price to fade Noah Syndergaard, but given the state of the respective TEAMS here, it's certainly justifiable. It's not like Syndegaard has pitched that well either. The Mets have lost the last two times he's taken the mound w/ the last start being a shockingly poor performance against Detroit, who brought the American League's lowest scoring offense to Citi Field, played w/o the DH and still scored six runs off Syndergaard in just 5 1/3 innings. Syndergaard now has a 4.93 ERA and 1.255 WHIP on the season. A matchup w/ the red-hot Dodgers is unlikely to change his current trajectory. 

The Dodgers have the NL's best record right now at 36-19. That's after losing to the Mets last night, 7-3. LA is still hitting a collective .314 over the last week though and averaging 6.7 runs per game. At home is where they've truly been dominant this season. Dodger Blue is outscoring teams by 2.2 rpg here at Chavez Ravine and thus has gone 20-7 here. Tonight they send out Walker Buehler, who has been downright filthy of late and really all year. Over his last three starts, Buehler has allowed just five runs (in 19 IP) and three were unearned. He has 20 K's vs. just two walks, posting a 0.95 ERA and WHIP.

Buehler has gone seven straight starts w/o being charged with more than 3 ER and that streak is likely to continue here. The Dodgers are 8-2 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and 64-27 in that same price range the L3 seasons. Furthermore, the Mets are just 2-7 in 2018 when priced at +125 or higher on the road. They are 31-66 the L3 seasons in that range. Off a loss, the Dodgers are 12-6 this year and they haven't dropped B2B games all month. A grand slam was the difference yday as the Mets won for just the third time in 17 tries against LA. That won't be happening again here. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Under D'backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): When Arizona arrived at Coors Field on Monday, they were coming off a dominant performance over the weekend where they swept the Giants, outscoring them 34-8 in three games. But save for that one series, things haven't been going well for the D'backs lately. They'd lost five in a row before getting to face the NL West cellar dwellars and have now dropped B2B games to the Rockies. While they curiously have a better record on the road than at home, nothing in the statistical profile (other than record) says they perform any better.

Colorado was actually under .500 at Coors Field before this series started. As per usual, offense is never a problem at home. The Rockies average 6.0 rpg here, tied for the highest scoring average by any team at home. But as per usual, the problem is they give up far too many runs here, 6.6 per game to be exact. So it might seem odd to go Under in this spot, but the last two games have definitely shown that such a play is possible to cash. The Rocks have won 4-3 and 6-2 here the L2 days. It's another high O/U line tonight as they look to go Under in three straight for the first time in over a month. 

Arizona turns to Robbie Ray for this one. He has a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts, which is solid, and has allowed no more than two runs in any of his L4 starts. He turned in a solid nine strikeout effort at San Francisco his last time out, which wound up being an 18-2 win for the D'backs. There's been just one start all season that Ray has been charged w/ more than 3 ER. He has a surprisingly decent 3.69 ERA in six career starts here in Denver. Colorado counters w/ Jeff Hoffman, who will be making just his third start of the year. The first two, both at home, haven't been great. But Arizona has done a surprising small amount of hitting the L2 days and I like his chances today. 10* Under D'backs/Rockies 

8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on these teams was Monday when I played the Reds in the second game of a doubleheader. They won (after dropping the first game), 8-1, and then followed that up by winning 11-6 yday as well (led by Derek Dietrich's THREE home runs). As was heavily discussed in Tuesday's analysis, this is a series we had circled for a number of reasons, most of them based off the respective YTD run differentials (which hardly correspond to the respective records). I was unable to play yday's game (line not available until late morning/early afternoon), but will pounce on Cincinnati yet again this afternoon. 

So the Reds are much better than their record. While they're currently last in the NL Central (26-29), they've actually outscored the opposition by 41 runs this season. That's the 5th best differential in the entire National League! Their offense has definitely woken up the L2 games and perhaps even more encouraging was the outing yday from Lucas Sims, who was called up and delivered career highs in strikeouts (9) and innings pitched (7 1/3). Today it will be Anthony DeSclafani on the hill. While he's struggled of late, I think like the rest of his team, he's in line for a resurgence. The Reds have still won 6 of his last 7 starts.

Pittsburgh has lost 7 of 9 and is now below .500 for the 1st time since May 3rd. Quite frankly, they should feel extremely fortunate to have been above .500 for so long. This is a team that has been outscored by 68 runs this season, the third worst differential in the NL and fifth worst overall. That run differential is indicative of a team that "should have" 19 wins, not 26. The Bucs' gap between actual and expected wins is currently the largest in all of MLB. Their rotation is in total shambles right now with another injury taking place last night. That brings us to Steven Brault, who gets the start tonight. While his TSR is 2-0, Brault has a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP. He and his team are due for a loss here. 8* Cincinnati

8* Over Cardinals/Phillies (7:05 ET): I feel that St. Louis still "owes" me after Sunday night's gagjob against Atlanta, which took place at home no less. They are 8-2-1 Over following an off-day. The Redbirds had themselves a 3-0 lead entering the ninth inning Sunday, but the bullpen blew that. The game was then lost in the top of the 10th on a bases loaded walk. Now the Cards travel to Philly to face a Phillies team that also had Memorial Day off. The Phils had won 7 of 9 entering Sunday, but lost 9-1 at Milwaukee, thus missing out on a chance to sweep a team that had recently taken three of four from them (here at home). 

Nick Pivetta returns from a stint at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start for the Phillies on Tuesday. Before he was demoted, Pivetta was a pitcher you wanted to look to go Over with on a consistent basis. His last seven big league starts have all gone Over, a stretch that dates back to the end of last season. He's 4-0 Over in 2019 w/ all of those game seeing 14 or more total runs scored. Three have been team wins, but Pivetta has generally NOT pitched well as he has no quality starts. All four starts have come here at home & he has an 8.34 ERA and 2.126 WHIP. Truthfully, he wasn't that effective down on the farm either w/ 22 hits and 20 walks allowed in 37 IP. 

Adam Wainwright goes tonight for the Cardinals and while his career numbers against the Phillies are good, many of those starts came long ago. In the present day, Wainwright is struggling, having allowed eight runs in his last nine innings of work. He has issued nine walks (w/ only 4 K's) during that time. Wainwright also has not been nearly as effective on the road (6.75 ERA) as he's been at home (3.00). He's failed to make it past the fifth inning in three of his last four starts. Here, he'll be facing a Phillies lineup averaging 5.2 rpg at home. The Over is 15-6-2 in Wainwright's last 23 road starts. 8* Over Cardinals/Phillies

8* Under Giants/Marlins (7:10 ET): San Francisco has a minor edge here in that they had Memorial Day off while Miami was playing in D.C. (won 3-2). But that should hardly matter for a team that has lost five in a row (all at home) and is pretty bad overall (21-31). The only NL team w/ a worse record than the Giants right now is the Marlins, though they have won 7 of 10. Yesterday's win over the Nationals did allow Miami from being swept, however. No team has scored fewer runs in all of MLB and I think this game shapes up to be an easy Under play. 

As I just mentioned, SF has lost five in a row. They were swept over the weekend by Arizona, giving up 34 runs in the process. In fact, each of the last five Giants' losses have gone Over the total. That streak began the last time Jeff Samardzija (who goes tonight) started. While six runs were scored on the former Notre Dame wide receiver (and he allowed 2 HRs), none were earned. All six runs came in one inning and were a byproduct of a throwing error and a wild pitch. While he has not won since April 23rd, Samardzija still has the best ERA on a Giants staff that includes Madison Bumgarner. 

Miami will hand the baseball to Trevor Richards, who has pitched well his last two outings. He took full advantage of facing two bad offense (Mets, Tigers) to allow just four runs in 12 IP. The Giants' offense isn't as bad as Miami's, but it's still averaging only 2.7 runs the L7 games while batting a collective .207. With the Marlins offense currently having the lowest OPS since the dead-ball ERA, I just don't see many runs being scored in this game. 8* Under Giants/Marlins

8* Under Tigers/Orioles (7:05 ET): The Baltimore pitching staff has been an unmitigated disaster, but it's not like that wasn't to be expected. Still, giving up 7.0 runs per game at home is pretty eye-poppintg. You have to think that number is going to start coming down (at least a little!) and as far as American League opponents go, I couldn't think of a better one for the O's right now than the Tigers. It wasn't too long ago that I noted Detroit's increasingly poor run differential (now -99) as a sign they were about to "hit the skids" and sure enough they've dropped 12 of their last 13. 

Baltimore still has the AL's worst run differential (-106) w/ theirs being a byproduct of giving up the most runs per game in all of baseball. But they're facing the #29 offense in MLB (next to last) here. Detroit has, by far, scored the fewest number of runs in the AL w/ every team but Toronto having scored at least 50 more! Last night was a 5-3 win by Baltimore as Detroit made several key errors in the field and on the basepaths. A key play took place in the third as a throwing error opened the door for two Orioles runs that should not have scored. So, the reality is yday's game should have been even lower scoring.

Tuesday sees both teams sending their most effective starter to the mound. For Baltimore, that's not saying much, but Dylan Bundy does have a 3.30 ERA and 1.163 WHIP his L3 starts. He's only allowed seven runs total his L4 trips to the mound and that's in 23 2/3 innings. Bundy has shaved a full two runs off his season ERA this month. For Detroit, Matthew Boyd has clearly been their best starter and is coming off six shutout innings in his last outing. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 11 starts overall. The Under is now 5-2 the L7 meetings here in Camden Yards. 8* Under Tigers/Orioles

10* Under Brewers/Twins (7:10 ET): We're giving the Brew Crew a DH here against the top scoring team in all of baseball in a matchup of former division rivals. Yet Under remains the call. This may seem curious given yesterday's Over call on the Twins, which certainly saw them do their part (scored 7 runs) only to also shutout the lowly White Sox. But this Minnesota offense, hot as it may be, has to start slowing down. Milwaukee's Gio Gonzalez just might be the right man for the job as not only does he own a 2.39 ERA and 1.101 WHIP, but all five of his starts have gone Under. 

Minnesota counters w/ Michael Pineda. A 4.26 ERA in his last three starts is highly misleading considering his WHIP during the same time happens to be 0.895. He's allowed 9 runs on 15 hits during that time. The problem is that 7 of those 15 hits have been home runs (all solo shots!). I suspect that problem (of giving up the long ball) will start to subside. Now the Brewers did homer five times in yday's 9-1 win over Philadelphia. But the Twins continue to do quite well in the run suppression department as well. They allow just 3.2 runs per game at Target Field. 

Milwaukee was swept in its only previous IL series, by the Angels of all opponents. The Twins are the hottest team in baseball right now as they've won 11 of 12 and in the last six games (all wins), they've allowed more than four runs just one time. But back to Gonzalez, he has a 1.50 ERA in two previous starts here in the Twin Cities. I already mentioned that all of his starts this season have resulted in Unders. His team is also 6-1 Under its last seven games played in American League parks. This number is too high for a National League team, even one that has Christian Yelich in its lineup. 10* Under Brewers/Twins

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a play on the second game of the Pirates-Reds doubleheader. The play stands regardless what happens in the first game, which takes place during the daytime. Pittsburgh isn't in very good shape now as they come off a 1-5 homestand and were just swept by the Dodgers. This downturn is something I wrote about extensively before it happened. Bottom line is the Bucs' run differential hardly corresponds w/ their won-loss record. They might technically be a .500 team right now (25-25), but they've actually been outscored by 59 runs.

The gap between the Pirates' actual and expected (based on run differential) win total is the largest in either league right now at +6. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the Reds, who have underachieved more than any other team. They are just 24-28, but have a +32 run differential. That's indicative of a 30-win team. They just took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, including a 10-2 win Sunday. In addition to the projection regression/progression to the mean we're likely to see from the respective teams here, this is also a big revenge spot for Cincy, who was swept in Pittsburgh back in early April. 

I've also previously written about the fact the Pirates' starting rotation is currently in shambles due to injuries. Off an 11-7 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, they'll be turning to top prospect Mitch Keller on the mound here. This will be Keller's big league debut and skipper Clint Hurdle has even admitted to this being a rush job. "In a perfect world, we would've given him some more time (in the minors)." The Reds counter w/ Sonny Gray, who threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee last time out (team won 3-0). Though it was his first win of the season, Grey has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his 10 starts. 10* Cincinnati 

6* Houston (2:05 ET): The Astros have - not surprisingly - emerged as one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not in all of baseball. While they did lose Sunday - 4-1 to the Red Sox - all that did was prevent them from sweeping what had been a pretty hot team. The club still sits well out in front of the rest of the AL West (6.5 game lead) and has played .648 baseball, which is the fourth best win percentage in all of baseball. Starting Memorial Day, they welcome in another worthy adversary, this time it being the Cubs, but I fully expect the home team to be up to the challenge - at least on Monday. 

Gerrit Cole gets the baseball for the opener and there's no sugarcoating how poor his last start went. In five innings, he gave up six runs and that was to the White Sox no less. But the Astros righty had made one bad start before (at Texas on 4.20) and subsequently recovered nicely. In fact, seven of his previous nine starts (before last week's vs. the White Sox) had been quality. He leads all of MLB w/ 100 K's and has gone 9-3 all-time vs. the Cubs. The Astros have won 17 of their last 22 games overall and yday's loss was an aytpical poor effort in the field.

The Cubs lost 10-2 to the Reds on Sunday, falling for the third time in the last four games. They are still division leaders as well, mind you, but the resume isn't quite as impressive. The Astros have them beat not only in terms of record, but also run differential. Something to keep an eye on here is that Kris Bryant left yday's game after colliding w/ Jason Heyward. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels went a season-low four innings his last time out and has posted a 1.687 WHIP his L3 starts. Houston has not played any Interleague games yet, but went 32-15 against the National League the last two years. 6* Houston

8* Over Marlins/Nationals (1:05 ET): Whereas every other game on the board today is a series opener, this one is actually the finale of a "wrap-around" series that began Thursday. Washington is going for a much needed 4-game sweep as they have been terribly disppointing so far this season. Miami has the worst record in the National League, but actually came into the series riding a season-best six-game win streak (B2B sweeps). Can't say that I'm surprised at the "reversal of fortunes" that took place over the weekend and the money line is predictably high today w/ Max Scherzer starting for the Nationals. 

However, betting on Scherzer this season has not been an enjoyable endeavor. He has an almost unfathomable 2-9 team start record, which has resulted in a net loss of 11.7 units, the worst ROI of any starter in baseball. Scherzer still has decent numbers, mind you. But whether it's been lack of offense or the bullpen, his luck has been poor in 2019. There was one exception though and that was a terrible outing against Miami on 4.20 where he surrendered seven runs and 11 hits in just 5 1/3 IP. Let us not forget about that terrible Nats' bullpen either, which has the worst ERA in all of baseball (7.09). 

Two of the three games in this series have gone Over, the exception being Saturday's 5-0 shutout. The Nats have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 games overall and have put 26 runs on the board the L3 games vs. Miami pitching. Today, they're up against Jose Urena, who actually faced off against Scherzer back on 4.20. That day Urena pitched well. But it was also at home. He's still 2-6 w/ a 4.30 ERA and 1.449 WHIP this season. He has a 2-8 TSR, so this matchup features two of the worst starters to bet on in all of MLB. I'm banking on this going Over as that's the way Scherzer's last nine starts against teams with losing records have gone. The number is too low. 8* Over Marlins/Nationals  

8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): A four-run eighth inning last night was just what the doctor ordered for the Cardinals as they won for just the third time in the last nine games, beating the Braves 6-3. Now they look for B2B wins for the first time in almost a month. That seems shocking to type, but it's true as the Redbirds have gone just 7-15 here in May. Yet they have still maintained a +21 run differential on the year, which tells me that this team is better than its record (26-25). I look for them to get the win tonight on ESPN behind Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well here at Busch Stadium. 

Flaherty has a 2.48 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in five home starts, so St. Louis looks to be in good hands here. Last time out, he made a quality start in Texas, holding the Rangers to two runs on four hits over six innings. That's no small feat. The Rangers are #2 in MLB in scoring and because the game took place in an American League park, Flaherty had to contend w/ a lineup that had a designated hitter in it. Not so here and Atlanta comes in batting just .232 its last seven games. Flaherty has gone at least five innings in every start here in May w/o giving up more than 3 ER. 

Meanwhile, it's been a tale of two months for Braves starter Julio Teheran. He was very bad in April (5.35 ERA), but has greatly recovered in May (0.79 ERA). Still Teheran's strikeout numbers are not that impressive (18 in 22 2/3 IP) and that's against 11 walks. He's allowed only two runs on 10 hits during that time, which includes five shutout innings against these same Cardinals back on May 16th. But that was at home. Teheran is just 1-3 on the road (3-4 TSR). St. Louis is outscoring teams by a full run per game here at home, so I'm surprised their record isn't better here. Take them. 8* St. Louis

analysis soon 

8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (1:35 ET): This series (so far) has gone exactly how I thought it would, that being a couple of blowout wins by the road team (LA). I took the Dodgers last night as they had to wait out a small rain delay before rolling to a 7-2 victory. I wish I could have taken them Friday as well, but due to the uncertainty surrounding who would pitch for Pittsburgh, the game was unable to be bet until late in the afternoon. My reasons for going against the Pirates were detailed in yday's analysis and suffice to say, my outlook for them is no rosier today. Despite being a game above .500, the Bucs have been outscored this season by 55 runs! 

But today's play is not on the Dodgers, but rather the Over. While the Pirates' offense continues to put runs on the board, I was impressed yday by the fact they put up 10 hits against Hyun-Jin Ryu, which was a season-high for him after previously tossing 31 consecutive scoreless innings. Today, they will face Kenta Maeda. Opponents are hitting just .220 off Maeda this season, but this will be his first time pitching since a stint on the DL. Many times, we see a starter struggle to regain past form in his first start back. The Over is 4-1 in Maeda's last five road starts, not to mention 5-0 the Dodgers' L5 games overall. 

Something I actually did NOT touch on in yday's analysis is how the Dodgers have definitely had the Pirates' number through the years. They're now 18-4 the last 22 H2H matchups, scoring 126 runs in the last 16 games. That's an average of 7.9 runs per game and today, I'm afraid it'll be more of the same for the Bucs. Starter Chris Archer has REALLY struggled in 2019 (1-6 TSR) and lately things have gotten quite dire w/ a 10.66 ERA and 1.973 WHIP his L3 starts. Archer has a 5.73 ERA in two previous outings vs. the Dodgers and I don't see this one going well for him either. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates

7* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): It was earlier this week that I wrote a rather sudden downfall was forthcoming for Pittsburgh. My reasoning was similar to the bleak projection I had for Detroit not long ago. In both cases, it was all about run differential. Detroit continues to have one of the worst in the sport (-95), so you should expect to see them continue to flounder the rest of the season. The case of the Pirates may be even more curious. While still two games above .500, the Bucs have actually been outscored by 50 runs this season! That's third worst in the entire National League! 

Pittsburgh did take three of four from San Diego last weekend, but this week is when I predicted things might start to "go South." They have w/ the team dropping three of four. It began Tuesday when I had a 10* release against them (on Colorado). After dropping two of three to the Rockies, the Pirates lost Friday's opener w/ the Dodgers by a score of 10-2. I don't see Saturday starter Joe Musgrove turning the tide as he has a 6.06 ERA his last three starts. That doesn't even include him allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings against Oakland, his last start here at PNC Park. 

The Dodgers are obviously a very good team and they'll be sending a very good pitcher to the mound tonight in the form of Hyun-Jin Ryu. To say Ryu has been "lights out" of late would be putting it mildly. He hasn't allowed a single run in three consecutive outings and has allowed just 12 men on base in 24 IP. Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start. If anything, he's underachieved w/ a 6-3 team start record as his ERA and WHIP are 1.52 and 0.741 respectively. He leads the NL in KW ratio (59-4) and opponents are hitting just .190 off him. By the way, Ryu is perfect all-time vs. Pittsburgh, going 5-0 in five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. This is as one-sided as it gets. 7* LA Dodgers

10* Over Marlins/Nationals (4:05 ET): These NL East rivals played to a 12-10 final last night, which was a much needed result for the floundering Nationals (they won). Coming into this series, Washington had dropped five in a row and been one of the more disappointing teams in all of baseball. Strangely, Miami (who has the NL's worst record) came into the Nation's Capital on six-game win streak (B2B sweeps). While I do think this ends up being a profitable series for the Nats, the money line is a little "rich for my blood" this afternoon. Fortunately, I don't think it's an overreaction to yday to jump on the Over.

Miami has - by far - scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. The next closest team is Detroit (who they just swept) and the Tigers have scored 20 more runs than them. Every other team has scored at least 44 more runs. But they did manage to put 10 on the board last night and have averaged 5.6 rpg over the last week. They've scored at least five runs in five of the last seven games. Today they face Pat Corbin and while he's pitched pretty well in 2019, don't forget about the albatross that is the Nationals' bullpen, which has the worst ERA in the entire league. Bottom line is I expect the Marlins to score some runs today. 

The Nationals have gone Over in four straight. They've allowed five runs in 8 of their last 9 games. Corbin does have a 4.62 ERA in six previous starts vs. Miami, though the last one game in 2017. After breaking out last night for 12 runs and 4 HR's, I also expect the Nationals' lineup to have success against Miami starter Sandy Alcantara. Yes, Alcantara did go the distance his last time out in a two-hit shutout. But that was against the Mets. Alcantara had allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his previous 6 starts and has a 1.881 WHIP on the road. Two previous starts vs. Washington have yielded a 10.13 ERA. 10* Over Marlins/Nationals

8* Over Mariners/A's (10:07 ET): Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but the sharp regression we've seen w/ the Mariners is something I predicted long ago. Last year's team completely overachieved in getting to 89 wins as they were outscored by 34 runs. So imagine my surprise when they began this year 13-2. But ever since, it's been all downhill as they are a MLB-worst 10-27 since late April and they've given up the most runs in all of baseball. They are also the top Over team (35-14-3 in all games), so coming off B2B Unders, I'm inclined to go Over here. 

The Mariners started the year unbelievably hot at the plate, homering in their first 20 games, which was a MLB record. The number of runs they were scoring simply wasn't sustainable, however. But what's offset that and kept them as the #1 Over team is how many runs they are now allowing. This month alone, there have been six times where they allowed 10+ runs in a game. They've allowed 57 in just the L7 games alone. Tonight's starter is Wade LeBlanc and he's unlikely to buck the trend seeing as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out, giving up 4 HR's, and lasted only 2 1/3 innings.

Seattle's opponent for this weekend is trending in a much different direction. Oakland has swept its last two series (Detroit, Cleveland) and looked dominant in doing so. They outscored the Tigers & Indians 46-15 and remember they had a game (that they were winning) called in Detroit. The only concern I have about the A's here is Daniel Mengden facing a Mariners lineup that can still rake (5.8 rpg scored away from home). Mengden has a 5.89 ERA in four career appearances vs. Seattle. One final thing worth noting is all four LeBlanc starts have gone Over w/ the final scores of those games being 4-18, 6-10, 12-5 and 10-8. 8* Over Mariners/A's

10* Over Braves/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Needless to say, the Mike Foltynewicz we've seen so far in 2019 does not resemble the same effective starting pitcher we saw last season. The Braves have lost all five of Foltynewicz's starts and he has generally not pitched well, which is confirmed by a poor 6.91 ERA. While he did look better his last time out, even then he had to exit early due to dizziness. St. Louis has not been a good opponent for him in the past w/ a 9.33 ERA in six career starts, most recently allowing eight runs in just 4 2/3 IP on May 14th. The Over is 6-0 the L6 times he's faced them. 

The Braves lost that last game 14-3, which was also the opener of a three-game set. They would bounce back to take the next two and enter this series in St. Louis having won 7 of the last 9 games overall. As I said earlier, Foltynewicz's last start did go better as he gave up just two runs on three hits, but the Braves still lost 3-2. So two of their last three losses have been with him on the mound. He also allowed two home runs in that last start, raising his season total to 10 in five starts. The Cardinals are two days removed from hitting 4 HR's in a game and homered three times off Foltynewicz when they saw him 10 days ago. 

Pitching in an American League park (Texas) did not go well for Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas his last time out. He surrendered seven runs in just 1 1/3 IP. He allowed nine hits, two of them home runs. Home has been far kinder to Mikolas w/ the Under cashing the last two times he's pitched here. But he also gave up three HR's in another Busch Stadium start. The Over is 17-4 the L21 meetings between these two clubs, including 7-1 the L8 here in St. Louis. 10* Over Braves/Cardinals