8* Run Line Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Brewers +1.5. The last time the Brew Crew met the Cubs, it was not a pleasant experience. At least for them, it wasn't. They were swept in a four-game set at Wrigley and shut out in three of the games! In fact, they scored a total of just two runs for the entire series. But that was Wrigley and this is Miller Park. Milwaukee is 18-11 at home this season and despite being 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2018 (did lose 3 of 4 to them here in early April), they still have a half-game lead in the division. Run differential suggests that the Cubs are the better side here, and over the long-term they might be. But my "gut" says the Brewers do no worse here than a one-run loss. 

Both of the previous series between the teams took place all the way back in April. Since that time, the Brewers have gone 23-13 overall and basically led the NL Central during that entire timeframe. They enter this series having just taken two of three at Philadelphia (the only loss coming yday, by one run), totaling 24 runs in the pair of wins (scored 12 in each game). Getting back to yday's one-run defeat, the Brewers have been involved in quite the number of one-run affairs this season. Their 22 such games are most in the National League and they've gone 15-7 in those contests. Even if you feel they are "due" to lose one, that result would be just fine here given how we're playing Monday's matchup. Milwaukee is also 26-13 in night games this season. They were #1 in all of MLB in net units going into yday at +15.2 for the season. 

The Cubs have won 8 of 10, but lost yday, 7-1 to the Pirates. That loss cost them what would have been a sweep, not to mention first place in the division. Tonight, they'll send out Jose Quintana to the mound. He's off a season-best 10 K's in his last outing, but still has only a 4.20 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 12 starts overall. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been better of late (0.944 WHIP L3 starts) too. These two faced off in the last series between the teams and while Quintana got the better of Guerra, the latter gave up only one run on three hits (in 6 IP). The revenge angle is strong here and three of the previous eight matchups have been one-run games. 8* Run Line Milwaukee (+1.5)

8* Over Cubs/Brewers (8:10 ET): Additionally, I like the Over in this matchup. With the Brewers getting shutout in three of the four games the last series these teams played (scored only two runs total), it should come as little shock to hear that all four games stayed Under the total. Just like the Cubs are 7-1 head to head against the Brewers in '18, the Under is also 7-1 in those eight matchups. Interestingly enough, the one Over took place in Milwaukee's lone victory in the season series, a 5-4 final. Other than that, they have failed to score more than two runs in any one game vs. the Cubs. Incredibly, they've been shutout FIVE times and scored just nine runs in the eight games! But I believe they'll "get" to Jose Quintana tonight, helping this game finish Over the total.

Now history says Quintana will pitch well here. He's owned Milwaukee since coming over from the other side of Chicago (played for White Sox), going 4-1 w/ a 0.63 ERA in six outings. He's faced them twice this season and not allowed a single run in 13 IP! But, as mentioned in the analysis above, his overall numbers remain fairly mediocre for the season (4.20 ERA, 1.368 WHIP). In the first two games of the last series, the Brewers certainly seemed to "rediscover" their offense, scoring 24 times in a pair of wins at Philadelphia (12 each game). Quintana has pitched past the sixth inning in just two of his 12 starts this season and gone less than five in one-third of them. 

I mentioned in the above analysis that Guerra had been better than Quintana recently and that's definitely true as not only does he own a 0.944 WHIP his last three starts, but also a 2.54 ERA his last five. In four career starts vs. the Cubs, his ERA is 1.61. I do suspect he'll outpitch Quintana in this spot, but he'll also be facing a Cubs lineup that is averaging more than 5.0 rpg on the road. The Cubs are seventh in all of MLB in runs scored this year as well as second in team batting average, first in on base percentage and sixth in slugging. It's going to take some runs for the Brewers to beat them (and I believe they'll score enough here to do no worse than a one-run loss). They certainly should score more here than what we've previously seen from them against the Cubs. 8* Over Cubs/Brewers

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener in relatively convincing fashion (won 7-3), the Dodgers lost to the Braves last night by a score of 5-3. I continue to maintain that the Dodgers are far better than their .500 record would seem to indicate as they have a run differential of +43 that is actually tops in their division. While both the Rockies and Giants are also 32-32 on the year (same record as LA), those teams have respective run differentials of -37 and -29. The one team ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, Arizona, had their number early in the season. But despite the injuries and heavy losses at the pay window, I'm nowhere near ready to sell on Dodger Blue. Take them Sunday.

While the Dodgers have underperformed to this point, the Braves have been one of baseball's most pleasant surprises. They are 37-27 and have their division's best run differential (+64) as well. Their 21-15 road record has been huge as has been the pitching of today's starter Sean Newcomb. But realize that a lot of Newcomb's success has been predicated on run support as the team has scored a total of 59 runs in his 12 starts. Now, Newcomb has largely held up his end of the bargain as well by turning in a 2.49 ERA and 1.194 WHIP. But it's also easy to win when the offense scores 14 times as it did in his last outing. Newcomb's recent strikeout numbers are hardly impressive either; he has almost the same number of walks (11) as he does K's (14) over his L4 starts.

The Dodgers send Ross Stripling to the mound Sunday and he's been even more impressive than Newcomb this season, especially of late. Over his L3 starts, Stripling is 3-0 w/ a 0.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs total his last five starts and one of them was unearned. Last time out, he tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball at Pittsburgh w/ seven strikeouts. His KW ratio is far better than Newcomb's as it's 42-2 those L5 starts. Atlanta has not won a series at Dodgers Stadium dating back to 2012 and home is where the Dodgers are likely to improve the most moving forward. Go w/ them here. 8* LA Dodgers

analysis soon

8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds at +1.5. It was NOT "lucky #13" for the Reds yday as they lost for an unconscionable 13th straight time to the division rival Cardinals. That "baker's dozen" of defeats includes an 0-9 mark this season and on Sunday they'll be looking to avoid what would be their THIRD sweep at the hands of the Cards already. Note I did cash Cincinnati +1.5 in the opener of this three-game set as they took the Redbirds into extra innings (lost 7-6). That's what I'll do again here today as you just don't see one team sweep another twice very often, let alone three times (especially when it's division rivals). 

It has obviously not been a good season in Cincinnati as the team is now 22-43 overall (season worse 21 games below .500), its worst 65-game start since 1934. Of course, they opened 2018 by losing 18 of their first 21 games (which included both prior sweeps at the hands of the Cardinals) and fired manager Bryan Price quickly. Under interim Jim Riggleman, things have been better as the team had basically been playing at a .500 level prior to this series. Incredibly, the Reds have lost to the Cardinals 11 straight times at home now. That has to be "due" to change, right? Maybe Anthony DeScalafani being back in the rotation is what the team needs. In his first start back from Tommy John surgery, DeSclafani wasn't exactly great five days ago against Colorado (allowed 4 runs in 5 IP). But he's maybe the only pitcher on staff w/ a history of success against the Cardinals. Though he's not faced them since 2016, his career record is 4-1 vs. St. Louis (w/ a 2.13 ERA).

The Redbirds won six straight Carlos Martinez's starts earlier this season, but he got hurt and missed almost a month of action. Like DeSclafani, he made his return to the rotation last Tuesday to less than stellar results. Martinez made it through only four innings and issued five walks while admitting to throwing the ball rather tentatively as he was afraid of reinjuring his arm. Velocity was way down. On the back end, the Cardinals are still w/o closer Bud Norris, which could conceivably open things up for a late Reds' rally, if need be. That's what happened Friday, leading to the winning RL ticket. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss Sunday. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Fortunately, I had the Reds on the run line (+1.5) last night, which allowed me to cash them in a one-run loss in extra innings (fell 7-6 in 10). They rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, so truthfully I was fortunate to cash as the Reds never led. Losing to the Cardinals has become an all-too "familiar script" in Cincinnati as head to head they're now 0-8 this season vs. their NL Central rival. Certainly, this can't go on forever right? Note while they never led last night, they did outhit the Redbirds, 13-8. Facing Michael Wacha today will be a challenge, but I feel that this time the Reds break through w/ that elusive victory over St. Louis. 

It's obviously not been a good season in the Queen City thus far. The Reds were the first team to fire its manager, doing so after only 18 games. At the time, the club was off to a franchise worst 3-15 start. Ironically, the first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman was a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals, the second time that happened in 2018. But since that disastrous 3-18 opening to the campaign, the Reds are at least a more respectable 19-24 overall. Today, they'll send Luis Castillo to the bump. They've gone 6-7 in his 13 starts, though they've dropped the last two. But both were on the road and prior to, Castillo had allowed 2 ER or fewer in five consecutive outings and turned in a 4-1 team start record. He did face St. Louis earlier this year and gave up only three runs in 5 IP.

This losing streak to the Cardinals extends beyond this season. It's now 12 straight losses to their division rival for the Reds, which is almost unconscionable. Wacha has certainly had their number. He's 10-1 all-time against them, including 9-0 his L12 starts (12-0 TSR!). His last loss to the Reds came all the way back in 2014! Last time out, Wacha took a no-hitter into the ninth inning (vs. Pittsburgh), continuing what has been a strong stretch for him. But, as far as the team is concerned, today marks the first time in over a month that St. Louis is in off B2B wins. I just have to believe the Reds are "due" to win here. 8* Cincinnati

10* Tampa Bay (4:10 ET): Today "has" to be the day for Tampa Bay, right? Seattle beat them by one-run (again) last night as both wins in this series have come by that exact margin. The Rays are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Mariners this season, four of those losses being of the "dreaded" one-run variety. Quite frankly, Seattle has lived off one-run wins this season. They're won a MLB-high 20 such games and have also been involved in the most such decisions (29). They're also 6-0 in extra inning games. That certainly helps explain how they're in front of a Houston team that Pythagorean win expectations says should be THIRTEEN games ahead! I'm willing to "stick to my guns" here and reiterate how I'm just not a believer in what has been a very lucky M's team. 

Unlike the last two games, the Rays will go w/ an actual starter on Saturday. Manager Kevin Cash elected to go the "opener" route both Thursday and Friday, but to no avail. By "opener," I mean that Cash used a reliever to start the game, but only for a couple of innings before turning to the bullpen. Such is life w/ a Rays' rotation that is somewhat in shambles due to injuries. But here, they'll turn to their most effective starter of the 2018 campaign, that being Blake Snell, who owns a 7-3 record to go along w/ a 2.36 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. Opposing teams are batting only .220 at Tropicana Field this season and Snell has certainly played a key role in that as he has a ridiculous 0.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season (five starts). Over his L3 starts, Snell has allowed just one run (and it was unearned) in 17 2/3 innings of work. 

In his last start, Snell faced off against the same pitcher he'll go up against today. That would be Felix Hernandez. Seattle won the game, 2-1 (by one run, of course!), but that doesn't tell the "true" story. Snell tossed six scoreless innings of two-hit ball w/ 12 strikeouts before the bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. Hernandez obviously pitched well too; he went eight innings and gave up just one run on five hits. But this is not the "King Felix" of old, I assure you. He'd allowed 4 ER or more in each of his five starts previous and has a 5.33 ERA (and 1.332 WHIP) for the year. The numbers on the road are even worse (7.03 ERA, 1.531 WHIP), so the fact Hernandez has a better TSR (8-5 compared to 7-6) than Snell is highly misleading. I really can't overstate how fortunate Seattle has been to this point as their 20 one-run victories are the most in MLB HISTORY through the first 63 games of any season. Snell has a 0.55 career ERA vs. them, so for the first time in June and the first time this year vs. the Mariners, the Rays will win in what shapes up as a massive revenge spot. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds at +1.5. Coming off a win over Colorado (avoided a sweep) here at home yday, the last team the Reds probably wanted to see in this spot is St. Louis. After all, they are 0-7 against the Cardinals this season. But I believe Cincy does no worse than a one-run loss spot. The Cards are by no means great on the road and this is a team that just avoided getting swept themselves w/ a win yday over Miami. Even losing two of three to the Marlins at home is pretty embarrassing in its own right. The revenge angle is obviously strong here as it's tough to sweep the same opponent twice (let alone THREE times), particularly a division rival. Take the +1.5. 

It's "Matt Harvey Day" (ha!) at Great American Ballpark on Friday. In all seriousness, Harvey has pitched pretty well for the Reds after the unceremonious exit from Queens. Now his last two outings were pretty rough, but both of those came on the road and one of them was at Colorado. His only start at Great American Ballpark so far (wearing a Reds' uniform) saw him pitch 6 1/3 innings and give up only one run on three hits. It was the best of his five starts w/ Cincinnati thus far. Though winless in four career starts vs. St. Louis, Harvey's ERA in those games is a strong 2.05. It may have taken extra innings yday against the Rockies, but the Reds were long overdue for a win as they'd outhit Colorado in the first two games, not to mention San Diego the game before that as well. 

St. Louis has dropped 8 of 14 and it's been over a month since they won B2B games. So yday's win doesn't exactly set them up well here. Again, dropping two of three (at home, no less) to the Marlins is not encouraging. Nor are the numbers of starter Luke Weaver on the road, such as his 5.22 ERA and 1.466 WHIP. Here, Weaver will face an offense performing a lot better than his recently. While the Reds are averaging 5.0 rpg (.295 batting average) the L7 games, St. Louis is at 4.1 rpg w/ a .258 batting average. I just find it hard to believe the Reds will get swept for a third time by the same team. Just to be "careful," we'll use the run line to our benefit as it's a good price. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Miami (7:10 ET): I assure you that endorsements of the Marlins will be few and far between this season, but tonight is a good spot to take them as they are at home, hosting the Padres, and have revenge. San Diego just took three of four from the Fish at Petco Park to end May. That's part of a 7-2 run for the Padres, but I'm not buying it at all. That entire run came at home with two of the series against fellow last place teams. They haven't been all that bad (surprisingly!) on the road so far (11-14 record), but moving forward I have as little faith in the Padres as I do the Marlins. The avenging home team should take this series opener in a battle of cellar dwellers. 

Of course, neither of these clubs were expected to be good in 2018. San Diego started 10-20, but has actually been above .500 since then (19-15) thanks to the recent run. They've won three straight series for the first time in almost a full calendar year. However, Miami also outscored St. Louis 18-7 in the first two games of its last series (before losing 4-1 yday) and will send rookie Caleb Smith to the bump this evening. Smith leads all rookies w/ 74 strikeouts so far and he has a 0.962 WHIP his L3 starts. He was also the only Marlins starter to get a win in the last series vs. the Padres. Starting the opener (sound familiar?) of that four-game set, Smith went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits. His K/9 innings rate of 11.0 is in the top 11 in all of MLB. He followed up that start at San Diego by allowing five runs in four innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field (Arizona), but still has a 3.03 ERA his L7 starts overall. Opponents are batting just .101 against his slider for the season. 

Smith will be opposed by the same pitcher he faced the last time he went against San Diego. That would be Eddie Lauer, who has been - by far - the more inconsistent of the two pitchers here. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings against Miami last time and gave up five runs in the process. For the season, he has a 6.82 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in eight starts and the team has gone just 2-6, including 0-4 on the road. The fact that the Padres head to Miami off an off-day while the Marlins played yday does not matter in my eyes as SD is 1-5 playing w/ a day of rest anyway. 8* Miami 

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Well, the Rays failed to come through for me yesterday as a late rally fell short and Seattle won another one-run game (5-4). But I'll come right back w/ the home team Friday, noting the same elements/rationale that was present for Thursday's play still persists here. The Mariners are not as good as their 39-23 record would seem to indicate as they've only outscored opponents by 22 runs over the course of that season. Their "win expectancy" (based on YTD run differential) is actually only 34. To put this in some perspective, the team they lead by one game in the AL West (Houston) has a run differential of +121 and a win expectancy of 46! The Rays still have revenge for a prior sweep in Seattle and three of their four losses to the M's this season have been by one run. 

Their record in one-run games (MLB-best 19-9) helps explain that discepancy between actual and expected wins for the Mariners. It also helps that they're a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games. This all sounds very unsustainable to me, however, and I'm on the record as calling for them to regress moving forward. They got a strong starting effort from Mike Leake last night and tonight will hand the baseball to the red-hot Marco Gonzalez. His L3 starts have seen Gonzalez go 3-0 w/ a 0.44 ERA and 0.934 WHIP. Impressive as those numbers might be (and his last start was against the Rays), I remain a bit skeptical as Gonzalez's ERA prior to the three start stretch was 5.31. 

While Seattle is trotting out the same starters we saw in the last series vs. the Rays, TB is going with the "opener" approach, meaning a reliever gets the "start," but only goes an inning or two. It's a "by committee" approach from there. This didn't work out for manager Kevin Cash last night w/ Austin Pruitt giving up three runs in the second after he came on in relief of Ryne Stanek, who had worked out of a bases loaded jam himself in the first. That said, visiting teams came into last night's game batting just .219 for the season at Tropicana Field. It should also be pointed out that Pruitt settled down yday after the rough second innings. The Rays outhit the M's last night (10-8). Tonight, they throw out Wilmer Font in the "opener" role. Since joining the team last month, Font has made four appearances and has a 1.50 ERA, having allowed only one run on three hits in six innings of work. At the end of the day though, this one simply boils down to my continued skepticism of Seattle's success. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Brewers are another of those teams I remain quite skeptical of moving forward. They've started to slip in recent days as well, dropping three in a row and scoring only four runs in the process. The last two losses took place in Cleveland on Tuesday & Wednesday. The Brew Crew remain in first place in the NL Central, however, their lead is shrinking as it's currently down to one-half game over the surging Cubs. To this observer, there's no arguement that the Cubs are the better team and that seems to be confirmed by their +91 run differential compared to Milwaukee's +26. The Phillies just did the Brewers no favors by dropping B2B games to the Cubbies, but now can do more damage while improving their own lot. I like the home team in this one. 

Philly has been a lot better at Citizens Bank Park this season as they've got a 19-9 home record and have outscored their visitors by nearly two full runs per game. They are roughly the equivalent of Boston for best run differential at home in all of baseball. But while the Red Sox score the most runs per game at home, the Phils allow the fewest. The number is just 3.0 rpg coming into tonight when they'll hand the baseball to Vince Velasquez. While he has an 0-3 team start record, that's actually highly misleading. Velasquez has a 2.20 ERA and and 1.225 WHIP during that time as well. While he has not shared in his team's success at home (three of their nine losses here have come w/ Velasquez on the hill), it's only a matter of time before that changes. Last time out, Velasquez went 6+ innings and allowed only one run on five hits. Sadly though, his offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss to the Giants. But Velasquez did have nine strikeouts, improving his K/9 innings rate to 12.0 over his L6 starts. 

The Brewers come in averaging just 2.3 rpg over their L7 contests, so I expect Velasquez to perform well here. Starting for Milwaukee will be Jhoulys Chacin, who has pitched well in his own right. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts and threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings his last time out. But that also came against an anemic White Sox team. Chacin has a 10-3 team start record so far this year, including 6-2 on the road. But his ERA/WHIP away from home are 3.82 and 1.300, pretty pedestrian numbers. Neither team has been at its best of late, but I don't believe the Phillies are getting enough respect from the oddsmakers given their success at home while I'm still skeptical of the Brewers. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): These AL West rivals met earlier in the season, up in Houston, and all three games - two Astros' wins and one for the Rangers - stayed Under the total. But I look for a much different type of game to unfold in tonight's series opener in Arlington. Not only is Houston MLB's highest scoring road team (5.7 rpg), but Texas gives up the most runs per game at home (5.8) this side of Colorado. Now, with a pitching matchup of Cole vs. Hamels (weird to type that!), you may think the season-long trends of the respective teams may not hold up. But consider each of Cole's last three starts have gone Over the total, thanks to the offense supplying him w/ an average of nine runs per contest. Not to be outdone, Texas has scored 15 runs its last 2 games. Take the Over. 

Gerrit Cole has been a big part of a Houston staff that is allowing a league-low 2.8 rpg w/ a .208 average. He's 6-1 in his 12 starts (10-2 TSR) w/ a 2.20 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. Certainly, he's more than capable of shutting these Rangers down. He also leads the AL w/ 116 strikeouts and is working on a four-game win streak. He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. He's looked very sharp in two starts vs. the Rangers previous to this one, giving up just three runs and five hits in 14 IP. He also has 25 strikeouts. But Arlington can be a tough place to pitch (just ask the Rangers' staff!) and at least now the individual Texas hitters are more familiar w/ the former Pirate. I expect this to be the worst of Cole's three starts against them to date. 

Speaking of "Cole," Hamels has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts. Four of those have been solo shots, so he's actually been lucky in that regard. Somewhat predictably, Hamels has been less effective here at home where his ERA and WHIP are 4.66 and 1.364. Again, he'll be up against the highest scoring road team in all of MLB. The Astros' offense had been slumping a bit before putting seven runs on the board last night and I believe that performance will "carry over" into this weekend series. When it comes to familiarity, the hitters should know what to expect from Hamels at this point considering this will be the FOURTH time this season that Houston has faced him. Note that the Over has cashed in five straight games for the Astros as well. 8* Over Astros/Rangers

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Now that the Mariners' win streak came to an end (at 5 games), it's probably a good idea to continue to play against them. I was on Houston last night and if you read my analysis, then you're already aware that I've been pretty steadfast in calling for this team's regression. If you haven't read and are wondering why, well, read on. Tampa Bay has revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the M's less than a week ago. (That series was contested at Safeco Field). Two of the Mariners' three victories came by one run, and that's part of the larger rationale as to why I think this team is set to regress. They are a MLB-best 18-9 in one-run games so far (6-0 in extra innings) and I simply don't believe that to be sustainable. Despite being 38-23 on the year, they've only outscored the opposition by 21 runs, which works itself out to a win expectancy of 33. No team in baseball has overachieved its expected win total more than this one has. 

Now the Rays have yet to win a game in June and have lost six in a row overall. They were hammered yday, 11-2, at the hands of the Nationals. But at least that game was contested in the afternoon, allowing them to get a "head start" on this series (Seattle didn't wrap up in Houston until roughly 11 PM ET). Tampa Bay's problem during the losing streak has been pretty simple and it's that they're not scoring. They've been held to three runs or fewer in all six losses, but I'll call for them to break out of that mini-slump tonight. Seattle starter Mike Leake has clearly overachieved in getting to a 4-1 TSR on the road, given his ERA and WHIP are 5.46 and 1.393. Leake did beat the Rays in the last series, but did allow two solo home runs. Obviously, he was fortunate no one was on base either time as the M's won by only a 4-3 margin. 

The Rays have done a lot better on the run suppression side of the ledger here at home. Opponents are scoring just 3.7 rpg at Tropicana Field while batting a collective .219. Ryan Stanek will get the start tonight, but is expected to go only an inning or two as manager Kevin Cash continues to get creative w/ his staff. In 2 2/3 previous innings vs. Seattle, Stanek hasn't allowed any runs and gave up just one hit. As a "starter" this year, he's gone three innings (two starts) and the last one was some tough luck as he gave up two runs despite only one hit. That followed him going 1 2/3 IP while allowing no hits his first try. Look for Stanek and the Rays to exact revenge against the overrated Mariners tonight. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Houston (8:10 ET): While last night's result certainly "flew in the face" of my working theory, I'll still cling to the notion that run differential is a far great predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. Even w/ a surprise 7-1 win last night, the Mariners' cut into the Astros' massive edge in run differential was barely a "drop in the bucket." Seattle might be in first place in the AL West right now (two games up on Houston), but they've only outscored opponents by a meager 23 runs this season (despite a 38-22 record). Meanwhile, the reigning World Series Champs are +116 in run diff, easily the best in all of baseball. I'll again lean on run diff and call for the Astros to earn a split of this short two-game set against their main AL West rival. 

Just to give you an idea, run differential says the Astros should currently have an 11-game lead over the M's. Instead, they are down two and the respective records in one-run games have a lot to do w/ that. Seattle is a MLB best 18-9 in one-run decisions (not to mention 6-0 in extra inning games), the best such record in all of baseball. On the other hand, Houston is a MLB-worst 4-12 in one-run games. One would suspect that those disparate marks would start to "even out" as the season progresses. Last night may not have been a one-run defeat for the Astros, but does set them up well for a revenge spot. It was just their third loss all season by five runs or greater, two of those coming in the last two games! While Seattle has won 9 of 11 (incl 5 straight), six of those wins have come by exactly one run. 

Houston had to deal w/ James Paxton yday and he got all the run support he needed early. It was a 6-0 game after the top of the second and that was "all she wrote." Expect better here from Lance McCullers Jr than what we got from Dallas Keuchel last night. McCullers has a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 in his five home starts thus far and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts overall. One of those was vs. Seattle as he dominated at Safeco Field in April, allowing just one hit (a solo HR) over 7 IP. He finished w/ a season-best 11 K's as well. Starting opposite McCullers here is Wade LeBlanc, another of Seattle's surprising starters. LeBlanc has allowed just six runs in his six starts, but has yet to pitch more than six innings. He has a 5.00 career ERA vs. Houston, making three starts and three relief appearances. As for McCullers, he is 6-2 all-time vs. Seattle w/ a 2.75 ERA (10 starts). 8* Houston

8* San Francisco (3:45 ET): There was a welcome sight on the bump last night in AT&T Park. That would be Madison Bumgarner, who made his season debut for the hometown Giants. Unfortunately for the majority in attendance, the end result was a disappointment. The Giants lost, 3-2, which snapped their five-game win streak. Unlike last year's disastrous campaign, the Giants performed admirably w/ MadBum on the DL as they were a .500 team through the first 60 games (despite being outscored by 31 runs). Even after yday's loss, they still only trail the first place D'backs by 2.5 games in the NL West. They beat Arizona on Monday, 10-4, and I like their chances in the rubber match this afternoon as this has generally been a strong offensive team at home. 

San Fran will send Chris Stratton to the bump this afternoon. They've won each of his last four starts w/ the last one seeing him toss six scoreless innings of four-hit ball (against the Phillies). That was here at home where Stratton is 4-1 in six starts (5-1 TSR). Stratton has pitched against the D'backs once already this season, albeit on the road, and it went very well w/ him allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. In fact, the Giants are 3-1 vs. Arizona the L2 seasons w/ Stratton on the mound as he's allowed just eight runs in 24 innings of work (2.64 ERA), making three quality starts. Going back to last season, the Giants are now 10-1 in Stratton's 11 home starts. Though 19-13 at Chase Field, the D'backs are just 13-15 on the road. Homefield advantage would appear to matter here.

Taking that a step further, San Francisco has been a pretty bad road team so far (12-20), but is 18-11 at home and averaging above 5.0 rpg here. Today, they'll face Clay Buchholz, who has been shockingly good through three starts. But I remain skeptical. Buchholz may have allowed just 3 ER in 18 IP thus far, but he's gotten to face two of the bottom three offenses (in terms of runs per game). One of those came his last time out as he held Miami, who ranks dead last in MLB in scoring, to just one run over seven innings. Buchholz "scattered" six hits across the outing and also had nine strikeouts, which was nearly double the number he had in his first two starts combined. The Arizona offense has also been rather anemic away from Chase Field, scoring just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .212. What's pretty shocking though is that those numbers aren't down too much from where the offense is at overall. The D'backs .217 BA for the year is easily last in all of MLB. The gap between them and the 29th team (Toronto) is actually larger than the gap between the Blue Jays and the #22 team! 8* San Francisco

6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): A battle of division leaders finishing off a brief two-game set here and the home team won yday by a score of 3-2 behind seven strong innings from Corey Kluber. While it maybe fair to call the Indians a "disappointment" at this juncture of the season ("only" 31-28 on the season), trust me when I say that they can easily run away w/ the AL Central, a division which is likely to finish no other .500 team come October. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been a bit of a surprise so far, at least to me. They may lead the NL Central, but run differential says they're clearly the #2 team in the division behind the Cubs. A 15-6 record in one-run games (NL best) has really propped them up in my view and that's due to change moving forward. Go w/ the Tribe in this one. 

For years, the American League has dominated Interleague Play (last losing season was '03). Therefore, it's a bit of a surprise to see the Senior Circuit sporting a 48-37 record currently vs the AL. Then again, the AL has only six teams that are more than a game above .500 right now. But Cleveland is one of them and has gone 5-2 vs. the NL this season, including yday's win. They split a pair of games in Milwaukee early last month and have proven themselves to be a better team here at Progressive Field where their record now stands at 19-11 for the year. Today being a day game also helps Cleveland's cause as the Brewers are just 12-12 in day games so far (as opposed to 25-12 at night). The Indians are also averaging a healthy 6.0 rpg at home this season. 

Starting today for the Tribe will be Carlos Carrasco. A key part of a fearsome rotation LY, Carrasco has struggled a bit here in '18. He's coming off B2B poor outings, but I like his chances here against a Brewers lineup that has been held to three runs in five of its previous six games. Let's also keep in mind that Carrasco was 4-0 through his first five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. Milwaukee counters w/ Chase Anderson, who is having issues of his own lately. Anderson has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five outings and the last one did come in an American League park as the Brew Crew lost to the lowly White Sox, 8-3. Anderson again has to face a lineup w/ a DH here and one that's a lot more potent than the White Sox to boot. Even w/ the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup, the Brew Crew can't match the Indians run for run as they're only averaging 4.2 rpg for the year. The Tribe should take this one easily. 6* Cleveland

10* Houston (8:10 ET): This series will put to the test my theory that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. For Seattle, who is in first place in the AL West, is only +17 in run diff for the season despite the 37-22 record. Houston, just two games back in the loss column, has outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 122 runs. Moving forward, I expect the Astros to run away w/ this division for a second straight year. I also like them tonight in the start of a key three-game set. They took three of four from the Mariners up in Safeco Field back in April. This series is a chance to teach the M's "who's boss" in the AL West. 

Pitching has been the Astros' calling card so far this season w/ the team giving up only 2.9 runs per game. Surprisingly though, former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is no better than third in the rotation at this point and actually might be the weakest of the five! Keuchel has struggled some of late, but didn't when he faced Seattle earlier this year, tossing a complete game and giving up just two runs on six hits. Unfortunately though, James Paxton was better and the Mariners won the game, 2-1. But Keuchel, who defeated Seattle three times last season, still sports a career 2.67 ERA against this opponent and I believe he'll pitch well tonight as he has done for most of his career at Minute Maid Park. He has a 1.097 WHIP in five home starts so far this season. 

Paxton has been really good for the surprising M's as he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of 12 starts, including seven in a row. Therefore, given the team's success, you'd expect Paxton to have a better TSR than 7-5. The key to the fact Seattle is ahead of Houston in the standings has been one-run games. The Mariners are 18-9 in such games (best record in MLB) and 9 of their last 13 victories have come by that exact margin. Simply put, that's not sustainable. Houston is 4-12 in one-run games (worst in MLB!), but 16-2 when the game is decided by five runs or more. Based on expected win total, the Astros should have a 12-game lead on the Mariners in the division right now. That discrepancy will start to get rectified tonight. 10* Houston

8* Oakland (8:05 ET): Even though run differential clearly states that Houston is the best team (and I would concur!), the AL West is shaping up to be a suprisingly competitive race w/ four teams currently above .500. Texas would be the outlier as they are 12 games below the Mendoza Line and have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. The gap between them and fourth place Oakland is larger than the gap that exists between the A's and first place Seattle! Starting today, the A's and Rangers play a three-game set in Arlington. They played seven times in the month of April with the teams splitting a four game set in Oakland and then the A's took two of three here at Globe Life Park. Oakland would seem to have a rather decided edge on the mound this evening and I'll side w/ them. 

Sean Manaea toes the rubber tonight for the visiting team, bringing in a disappointing 6-6 team start record. I say "disappointing" because despite a string of recent subpar efforts, his WHIP for the season is still 0.973. While he's allowed 4 or more runs in six consecutive starts, note he allowed 2 or fewer in each of the first six! So which half-dozen start sample size is more indicative of the way Manaea will pitch moving forward? I say the first. Remember he threw a no-hitter during that stretch. Texas is not a strong offensive team as the team is batting a collective .225 its L20 games w/ only two hitters above .250 during that time. When Manaea faced the Rangers earlier in the year, he held them to just one run on three hits over eight innings.

Maybe Manaea has struggled some of late, but that's nothing compared to the kind of season starter Matt Moore is having for the Rangers. Moore has an 8.02 ERA and 2.022 WHIP for the season (10 starts) and has allowed fewer than three runs just once. He's also lasted six full innings only one time this season. He's given up five runs in B2B starts and this Texas offense shouldn't be counted on for much support. I talked about the batting average above, plus they've scored a total of only five runs the last four games. Oakland has won three of its last four games, including a 16-0 win over KC on Friday. For the season, the A's are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road (#3 in MLB) while the Rangers are giving up 6.0 rpg at home (29th, trailing only Colorado). 8* Oakland 

8* Over Rockies/Reds (7:10 ET): These teams played a series less than two weeks ago, at Coors Field, where all three games stayed Under the total. Those results speak to how Colorado has played most of this year, especially on the road where their games average a scant 7.4 runs per contest. Free from the confines of their hitter-friendly ballpark, the Rockies' pitching staff performs much better, allowing just 3.7 rpg w/ opponents batting just .223. Unfortunately, coming along with that is their own similar offensive decline, also down to 3.7 rpg, and they're hitting only .215 themselves. But there's something else to consider when the Rockies are the road team. That's the O/U line is going to be a lot lower. It was 11.0 or higher for all three games w/ the Reds earlier this season. I'll call for an Over here, which would break a long streak of Unders (7 straight meetings) between the two teams. 

Colorado has certainly given up plenty of runs during a four-game losing skid. They were swept over the weekend (at home) by LA (I was on the Dodgers twice) and gave up 33 runs in the process. Including a loss to the Giants last Wednesday, they've now given up 40 runs in the last 4 games. Kyle Freeland gets the start tonight and while like most Rockies pitchers he's better on the road, he's more than capable of giving up plenty of runs. He allowed 2 HR's in his last start and his ERA on the road is 4.17. Freeland is also "backed" by a bullpen that had a tough weekend against the Dodgers, giving up leads in every game.

As mentioned above, these teams have a recent history of going Under against one another. Going back to last year, seven straight meetings have stayed Under. But all seven games were at Coors Field and had O/U lines of 11 runs or higher. It's a big difference now that we're in Cincinnati. The air may not be as thin, but the total is lower. The Reds' pitching staff ranks 27th or lower in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average, not to mention they've also given up the most runs in the National League. Anthony DeSclafani is starting at the big league level for the first time since 2016 today for the Reds. Injuries robbed him of 2017 and quite frankly he's only starting here b/c Homer Bailey has been so bad. DeSclafani didn't exactly light it up in his rehab starts either, allowing 20 hits in 19 1/3 IP at Triple-A Louisville. 8* Over Rockies/Reds

8* Run Line Kansas City (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Royals at +1.5. Back in April, these teams played three times in what was supposed to be a four-game set (one rainout) in KC. The Angels took all three games. Now the Royals have a shot at revenge and while I must concede my overall outlook on this club isn't good, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Despite a poor record and an embarrassing 16-0 loss Friday (to the A's), the Royals are still 7-5 overall their last 12 games. The Angels come in off a successful series against Texas (took two of three), but have a losing home record (14-18), burning a lot of money in the process (-8.2 units). 

Danny Duffy will start for the Royals tonight. The team's Opening Day starter did not get off to a good start here in 2018 as he was 1-6 through his first 10 starts w/ a 6.88 ERA. At one point, he went through a stretch where he allowed 5+ ER in six of seven outings. But while he's still near the bottom of the pile in terms of net units for all starters (-5.9), Duffy comes in off B2B quality efforts and most importantly the team won both times. Duffy allowed just one run to the Rangers and Twins, on only four hits each, while working a total of 13 2/3 innings. He did not face the Angels in the April series, but is 2-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.46 ERA. The Angels' lineup is batting just .222 at home for the year. 

Nick Tropeano will get the baseball for the home team tonight. He did pitch in that last series between the teams and shut out KC for 6 2/3 innings. But even after B2B quality starts himself (both on the road), Tropeano has some issues. He's winless in four tries at home and has a 5.31 ERA and 1.426 WHIP. This Angels' lineup has struggled regardless of where it's played lately as they've been held to three runs or fewer in six of the last eight contests. They're also just 5-9 when facing a LH starter this year. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis knows that I'm pretty clear about the notion of a team's scoring differential being a better predictor of future success than the actual won-loss record (this goes for any sport). So, I can't say I'm surprised that the change in the NL West that run differentials foretold is starting to take hold this weekend at Coors Field. The Rockies fall out of first place in the division was pretty easy to predict if you'd noticed that they'd actually been outscored by a pretty healthy margin over the course of the season. They've dropped the first two games of the series and now sport a YTD run differential of -28. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (who I had in the first game (on Friday)) own the division's best run differential at +34. They are a fourth place team "in name only" and I'll call for them to finish off the sweep Sunday afternoon. 

The Dodgers have taken advantage of the thin air of Coors Field to score 23 runs in the first two games. A eight-run seventh was the difference in last night's victory as they improved to 4-1 head to head vs. the Rockies this season. Alex Wood gets the start today and while he has just one win in 11 starts, that's highly misleading. Wood has pitched pretty decently (1.043 WHIP), save for his last outing when he gave up three home runs in a loss to San Diego. But prior to that, he'd allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts. He's allowed three runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts overall. Note that Wood is working on extended rest here as he was initially set to start Friday's opener, but that got pushed back. That aforementioned last start in San Diego came last Saturday or eight days ago. 

Strangely, the Rockies have NOT been hitting well in their home park this season. More or less, this is a franchise defined by Coors Field, skewing both its hitting and pitching numbers rather dramatically when it comes to home vs. road splits. They are up to 5.0 rpg at home this year, but at the same time they're also giving up 5.8. As a result, the home record is only 11-14. The Dodgers, winners of 12 of their last 16 overall, are currently on a six-game win streak on the road. Starting today for Colorado will be Chad Bettis, who has been just plain awful so far at Coors. He has a 7.06 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in four starts here, far different than what we've seen from him outside this tricky environment. Last time out, Bettis allowed five runs on 10 hits here to a pretty weak hitting San Francisco team. He's allowed a total of 12 runs on 20 hits in his last two starts here, which have spanned only 11 innings. Strikeout numbers also remain unimpressive for Bettis, who has a 6.95 ERA his L4 starts overall while allowing an .869 OPS. Opposing hitters are batting .315 against him during that span. 8* LA Dodgers

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): I can't say that I'm terribly surprised to see the Cubs having come into Citi Field and taken the first three games of this four-game set. After all, their NL-best run differential (now +91) indicated that a run was forthcoming. However, as I talked about in Thursday's winner on the A's (against Tampa Bay), it's very hard for a road team to come in and sweep a four-game series. So, it's time to step in and grab the Mets at what I feel is an inflated price Sunday. Last night marked a brutal loss for the home team as they fell 7-1 in 14 innings. That despite their pitchers striking 24 Cubs hitters out over the course of the game! It's a quick turnaround, but history indicates the Mets will avoid the sweep here. 

That 11-1 start to the season for the Mets is now a distant memory as the club has gone just 16-28 its L44 games under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan. They've dropped 8 of their last 10. Both teams had ample reasons to be frustrated over last night, but particularly the Mets as they wasted a great start from Jacob deGrom and also left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 13th. All told, they stranded 11 baserunners in the game. Today's starter Steven Matz is not as strong as deGrom, but I feel has the capability to get the job done. Remember; the Cubs did strikeout 24 (!!) times yday. Matz did exit his last start early (after three scoreless innings) due to a middle finger strain. However, he threw his usual bullpen session on Friday and is ready to go. Matz hasn't allowed a single run over his last 9 IP and has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four of his last five turns. 

The Cubs will turn to Jon Lester here, making it a battle of southpaws on the mound. Lester had been pitching well before his last start when he gave up four runs in six innings against Pittsburgh. The Cubs still won the game mind you, 8-6, but it was far from the veteran Lester's "finest hour" as he gave up two home runs. Something to keep in mind when Lester starts is that the Cubs basically have an eight-hitter lineup. For his career, Lester is a .094 hitter. Matz isn't Ty Cobb by any means, but he's at least better than .094. The Cubs have only two win streaks longer than three games this year (both 5) and the last one came at the expense of the White Sox and Marlins, possibly the two worst teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost more than three in a row only one time this season and that was at the start of May. 8* NY Mets

8* Texas (9:05 ET): Well, the Rangers certainly didn't work out last night (my only loss) as they lost 6-0 here in LA, dropping to 0-4 head to head YTD vs. the Angels in the process. But that won't stop me from grabbing them at a greatly inflated price here tonight. It's tough to sweep the same opponent two times, especially if it's a division rival, so it's only a matter of time before Texas breaks through in this AL West battle. I feel tonight's the night as Cole Hamels toes the rubber. Hamels has pitched very well in the past here in Anaheim, posting a 2.16 ERA in five starts and never allowing more than 2 ER. The Angels are still -7.5 units for the season at home (13-17 overall). 

Last night marked just the second time all season that the Rangers were shutout. The only previous occasion was on 5.20 vs. the White Sox. They would respond by scoring 33 runs over the next three games. I like the chances of a similar outburst taking shape starting tonight as they face Garrett Richards. Richards has not beaten Texas since September of 2015, going 0-3 in five starts since. Richards is also 0-3 his L3 starts overall coming into tonight's game, due in large part to a 1.465 WHIP. He had five walks in his last start as he lasted only 2 1/3 innings against the Yankees. That ended up being a 3-1 loss for the Halos, who have scored a total of just four runs in Richards' last three starts as well. The Angels' offense is still averaging only 3.9 rpg at home this season w/ a .223 batting average. Richards has a 4.21 ERA at home as well. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 8-17 when coming off a shutout win. 

Though he struggled in his last start (gave up five runs to KC), Hamels is still deserving of a far better team start record than his current 3-8. Prior to struggling Sunday, he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in a row (allowed just nine runs total in 30 1/3 IP). He was priced at -190 on the ML in his last start, so this seems like a really good value. In his last road start, he outdueled Houston's Justin Verlander (won 1-0) to cash at +225 on the ML! The Angels did not have to face Hamels in the previous series between the teams, back in April. Texas did face Richards however, and while they lost, they did draw five walks and the Angels started exited after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Richards has made it past the sixth in only two of his last six starts while Hamels routinely pitches deep into games. Also, the Rangers' bullpen actually did a good job last night, not allowing any runs over the final five innings. 8* Texas 

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Since getting off to a 13-6 start to the season, it's been "tough sledding" for the Blue Jays. They're a money-burning 12-26 the L38 games and the current losing streak has hit four following last night's 5-2 setback here in Detroit. (They've also lost 11 of 14). Meanwhile, the Tigers have now won five of their last six, including three in a row. But I look for a "reversal of fortune" this afternoon in the Motor City. It's a "sign o' the times" when your manager says about your starting pitcher: "(Jaime) is going to be successful when he throws the ball over the plate." That's what Toronto skipper John Gibbons had to say about yday's starter Jaime Garcia, but Saturday finds him handing the baseball to J.A. Happ, who has been red hot on the mount of late. 

Happ is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP. The last time Toronto won, Happ was the one pitching, leading his team to a 5-3 victory at Philadelphia. There he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just three runs (one unearned) w/ eight strikeouts. It was his third straight quality outing, a stretch that has seen him produce a 23-5 KW ratio w/ no HR's allowed. Happ has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in six of his last seven turns and has become Toronto's best starter. He's pitched well in the past vs. the Tigers, going 3-1 w/ 3.74 ERA in eight career outings. Detroit does have Miguel Cabrera back in the lineup and is averaging 5.0 rpg at home this year. But I'm not buying into any goose (look it up!) or really this team, long-term. 

The Blue Jays do struggle to hit left-handed pitching (.224 BA) and this is a battle of southpaws here w/ Happ being opposed by Matthew Boyd. Boyd threw five scoreless innings his last time out and is having every bit the good season that Happ is having. Only Happ's team start record of 8-3 is better than Boyd's 5-5. Boyd also doesn't have the most impressive strikeout numbers as he has just four total (all of those coming in his last start) against seven walks. He's lasted a total of only nine innings in his last two starts - combined. I think it's telling that Toronto has been priced on this range, on the road, and I'll "follow the money." 8* Toronto

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants were dead last LY in net units (-37.2) in a disaster of a campaign that saw them never really "get out of the blocks." Despite being w/o Madison Bumgarner again at the start of the season, 2018 has gone better for them as the team is a respectable 26-30, even though their -49 run differential indicates that record should be worse. Tonight though, they have some revenge to exact against Philadelphia, who earlier this year swept them in a four-game series. The rematch will be contested out on the West Coast though and that's significant considering the Phillies are below .500 on the road. After an off-day, the revenge-minded Giants should break through against the Phils Friday night. 

After dropping six of seven, SF finally came through on Wednesday, beating the Colorado Rockies by a score of 7-4. Note that the recent schedule has been pretty challenging for the Giants. They wrapped up May by taking on the Rockies (first place in the NL West) twice and also the Cubs and Astros, who have the top run differentials in the respective leagues. Not to undersell Philadelphia, who has emerged as a playoff contender out of the NL East. The Phillies are a better team than the Rockies, but not in the same class as the other two previous Giants' opponents. Looking at that previous sweep, it was a dominant performance by the Phils (outscored SF 35-8), but that was at home where they've gone 19-9. On the road, they average less than four runs per game. 

Another key in that previous series is the Giants were very banged up. Three players that were on the DL at the time - Joe Panik, Hunter Pence and Hunter Strickland - are all set to return this weekend, possibly as early as tonight. This is also a starting pitching rematch of one of those four games w/ Chase Stratton facing Nick Pivetta. Both have 8-3 team starts records, but Pivetta has the better numbers. That said, Stratton hasn't lost for the Giants since his awful showing in Philly, going 3-0 his L3 starts. Pivetta has been sharp, but also doesn't often go longer than five innings. The Giants aren't a good road team, but are 14-10 at home and they're not getting swept again by the Phillies this weekend. 8* San Francisco

8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Not even the RL could help Texas yday as they fell to Seattle 6-1. But I'll still go with them here in a revenge spot against the Angels. It was a three-game sweep when these teams met earlier this season in Arlington. The Angels took all three games there, but what's interesting about both teams is how they've each been better on the road this season. Los Angeles is only 12-17 at home so far while Texas is a respectable 13-16 on the road (11-19 at home). It's been proven to be pretty difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, particularly a division foe. I say the Rangers do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

While the Rangers were able to split up in Seattle, the Angels actually had a worse start to the week as they dropped three of four in Detroit. All three losses were by four or more runs, including 6-2 yday afternoon. Now Shohei Ohtani will be back in lineup today (pitched Weds, so he had yday off), but the bottom line is this offense has scored three runs or fewer in five of its previous seven games. I don't see them turning things around here against the ageless Bartolo Colon, who has shockingly delivered a 0.96 WHIP in his nine starts this season, including 0.706 on the road where he's unbeaten w/ a 1.59 ERA. Colon rebounded from his worst start of the year (vs. the Yankees on 5.21) by allowing just three runs over 7 IP vs. Kansas City last Saturday. He did not pitch against the Angels in the previous series. He's gone at least six innings in five straight starts and has allowed more than 4 ER only once all season. 

While Colon continues to surprise, so too does Angels starter Jaime Barria, who leads the rotation in both ERA and WHIP (yes, better than Ohtani). He's delivered a slightly better ROI than Ohtani as well, despite making three less starts, but that has to do w/ pricing. Barria has been an underdog in each of his L3 starts and actually allowed 4 ER his last time out. Shockingly, the Angels are being outscored by more than a full run per game at home this year. Therefore, I don't see them winning by multiple runs here, especially after they were able to do so in all three games vs. the Rangers in the last series. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Run differential is often the best predictor of future outcomes, as opposed to a team's actual won-loss record. Now, many times a team's number of wins "matches up" well w/ its run differential thereby "justifying" its record. However, other times it does not. Case in point, Colorado being a first place team in the NL West at 30-26. They've been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Dodgers are having quite the unlucky season. They have their division's best run differential (+23), yet are in fourth place at 26-30. Arizona is a rival that's given them plenty of trouble this year (4-8 head to head record), so they can't let the same thing happen w/ Colorado. Fortunately, they took two of three from the Rockies at Chavez Ravine last month. I see them starting this series w/ a win as well.

The Dodgers' poor luck continued yday w/ not only a 2-1 loss to the Phillies, but Clayton Kershaw having to exit early due to an injury. Making his return to the rotation after biceps tendinits cost him nearly a month, the former Cy Young winner now has back issues. Tonight the team will have to rely on Alex Wood. While Wood's TSR is just 1-4 after 11 starts (and he pitched poorly his last time out), that record is not really indicative of how he's performed over the balance of the season. He has a 1.043 WHIP overall, including 1.020 on the road where his ERA is also 2.88. Wood has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his starts this year. 

Colorado has won 10 of its last 14, but a franchise that has largely been defined by its home park (throughout its existence) has not performed as well as you might think at Coors Field in 2018. Especially at the plate. Shockingly, they are averaging less than 5.0 rpg here and being outscored for the season. They have a losing home record (11-13) as well. Starter Tyler Anderson has struggled of late too, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing some pretty weak opponents as well (Reds, Padres, Giants). Note there's a chance LA does NOT start Wood here and goes w/ a "by committee" approach, but in that case, the play still stands as I lean heavily to what the respective run differentials of the two teams say. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates +1.5. Now playing this NL Central matchup this way was a major letdown for me and anyone else who had the Bucs last night. Up 8-5 going into the bottom of the ninth (and w/ an additional +1.5 in hand), they frustratingly let the Cardinals score five times and win in walkoff fashion, 10-8. That came after Pittsburgh's own four-run eighth, which capped a comeback from an early 4-0 deficit. Losing on a walk-off 3-run HR is a really "bad beat" from where I sit, but once again I'll say the Bucs do no worse than a one-run loss here. Like yday, this starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week's series and I'll side w/ the pitcher & team that have revenge. 

After winning his first three starts of the season, Pittsburgh has gone just 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last eight starts. That includes a loss in the last one despite Taillon giving up just three runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings (6-1 KW ratio). That was yet another instance of the Pirates faltering late against the Cards as they led that game 4-1 (at home) going into the seventh (lost 6-4). So last night wasn't unprecedented, nor was Taillon's performance. Despite that 2-6 TSR his last eight outings, he's allowed 3 ER or less five times during that stretch. He also allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his first three starts where the team went 3-0. During that time, Taillon turned in B2B scoreless efforts (over 15 IP) including a complete game.

Of course, St. Louis doesn't want to hear about "bad luck" considering all the one-run losses they've suffered at the hands of first place Milwaukee this year. That said, I'm going to go against them again tonight. The bullpen has been severely overworked the L2 games and the everyday lineup is battling a slew of injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on starter Mike Mikolas and while he's been up to the task so far (6-0 in 10 starts!), he was obviously fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out. Mikolas allowed four runs in six innings opposite Taillon and appeared to be the inferior pitcher to these eyes. Now it was arguably one of Mikolas' weaker starts to date, but could it be a sign of things to come? In his 1st start against Pittsburgh this season, the shoe was on the other foot as he pitched well, but didn't factor into the decision as the Cards lost by one run. By the way, St. Louis is just 4-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. They prevailed yday, by one run, winning 7-6. Generally speaking, one-run games have gone quite well for the Mariners this season (they have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories so far), however we know that will probably "work itself out" and regress back to the mean. Seattle is a team that I don't feel is anywhere close to as good as its overall record (33-22) and in fact I find it "laughable" that they are just one game back of an Astros team that has a MLB-best +123 run differential (Seattle only +8!). The M's are a team I'll be looking to play against when the situation calls for it as they are not only fortunate to be 16-9 in one-run games, but also 5-0 in extra innings this year. The situation calls for a 'play against' this evening. 

Texas has its own "unique" history w/ one-run games the previous two seasons. In 2016, they won the American League West w/ 95 victories. But they only had a +8 run differential for the year. How could that happen? Well, they turned in the best single-season record in one-run games in MLB HISTORY at 36-11. Last year saw them predictably regress down to 78 wins w/ a MLB WORST 13-24 mark in one-run games. While they may not improve on their overall win total here in 2018 (team is currently 24-34), they should perform better in one-run games at least. Sure enough, they're 6-5 so far (also 5-1 in extra innings). 

Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about tonight's pitching matchup. Wade LeBlanc has shocked me in turning in a 4-1 TSR for Seattle w/ a 1.71 ERA and 0.949 WHIP. Interestingly though, he has yet to factor into a single decision (0-0 personal WL record). Each of his last three starts have been one-run victories by the Mariners! The Rangers counter w/ Mike Minor, whose numbers aren't as impressive as LeBlanc's, but he has a 4-3 TSR. Two of the three games in this series have been decided by one run (each team winning one), but Texas has won two straight, scoring 16 runs in the process. I feel that the Mariners' 16-12 home record is pretty phony considering they have been outscored by 0.4 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rangers have actually performed far better on the road this season than they have at home. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates at +1.5. The Bucs won yday, 2-1, thus avoiding what would have been a three-game sweep (at home) at the hands of the Cubs. Truthfully, it has not been a great finish to the month as the team has dropped 9 of its last 12 after winning eight of nine prior to that. Now they face another NL Central rival, one that they can look to extract some revenge against for a pair of losses last weekend. St. Louis took two of three at PNC Park over the Memorial Day weekend, but let me down yday afternoon with another one-run loss to the Brewers. Here, I don't see the Redbirds doing any better than a one-run win. Take the +1.5. 

The pitching matchup Friday features a repeat of last Saturday with Trevor Williams (PIT) again facing off against Jack Flaherty (StL). Interestingly enough, I backed Flaherty and the Cards in that game and it was a pretty easy 4-1 victory. At the time, St. Louis was still looking to avenge a three-game sweep that happened at PNC Park late last month. They did, but now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" w/ the Pirates playing w/ revenge. This is a favorite situation of mine where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the prior meeting. Getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with in the spot seems like a nice luxury to have as well.

Flaherty allowed just one run and four hits over 6 IP on Saturday, continuing a string of solid showings here in 2018. Interestingly enough though, this will be just his second start at home. Meanwhile, Williams has pitched better on the road than at home this season (3.14 ERA, 1.046 WHIP). While only one of the six head to head meetings this year between these teams have been decided by one run, both have been involved in their fair share of such affairs throughout the course of the season (like yday!). The Bucs are still 4-2 vs. the Cards in '18 and have scored at least four runs in all but one of those games. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubs may have missed out on a chance to sweep the Pirates yesterday (lost 2-1), but I like the team's chances this weekend in Queens, particularly in tonight's series opener. In terms of gaps between expected (based on run differential) and actual wins, these two clubs happen to own two of the largest, albeit on opposite sides of the ledger. The Cubs are already starting to make their move in the NL Central (now in second place), but a +76 run differential (NL's best!) indicates that even "better times" are forthcoming. Meanwhile, the Mets' 11-1 start is largely a "distant memory" as they've been outscored by 16 runs on the season and gone just 16-25 since under first year skipper Mickey Callahan. Cubs win, Cubs win today. 

Other than the Astros (who have baseball's best run differential), no team has "underperformed" in terms of actual wins and losses more than the Cubs. Based on them outscoring their opponents by 76 runs this year, we should "expect" 34 wins out of them at this point. They have only 29. I'm not concerned though and fully expect Joe Maddon's team to start asserting itself. We'd already started to see signs with a three-game win streak going into yesterday where the offense totaled 23 runs and 39 hits. They had no answer for the Pirates' Joe Musgrove yday, but facing the Mets' Seth Lugo (making 1st start of season) tonight should be a different story. Lugo is only in a starter's role here due to Noah Syndergaard being on the 10-day DL. We last saw him in a relief role on Monday as he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 innings to Atlanta and took the loss. Over the L7 games, the Mets have allowed an average of 6.6 rpg w/ opponents batting .303. Yikes! Lugo is only expected to go 50-60 pitches here. 

The Cubs are only 14-12 on the road this season, but "should" have a much better record given that they've outscored their opponents by almost two full runs per game outside of Wrigley. The pitching staff has limited opposing hitters to a .215 average on the road, which is really impressive. Jose Quintana gets the starting nod here and while he's failed get past the fifth inning in three of his five May starts, it's not like he's been pitching that poorly. It was the second time through the order that got him Saturday vs. San Francisco, but prior to that he'd tossed 10 straight scoreless innings of one-hit ball w/ 13 K's. In two career starts vs. the Mets, Quintana has a 1.93 ERA. The Cubs are 13-8 off a loss this season and I like them quite a bit Friday. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Oakland (3:35 ET): This series has certainly not gone well for the home team as they've dropped three in a row to the visiting Rays. The first two losses were both by one run, but last night was much uglier as the A's fell 6-0 as they were no-hit for six innings by Nathan Eovaldi (who was then pulled!), someone who had not pitched at the big-league level in almost two years (two Tommy John surgeries). To add insult to injury, there weren't even many people there to witness the game. The announced attendence was 6,295, the lowest number in Oakland since '03. With today's finale being a day game, it should be another sparse crowd, but those who do venture to the ballpark will be rewarded w/ a win by the home team. I say that due to the fact the A's have their best pitcher going Thursday afternoon and you just don't see teams get swept at home in four-game series very often.

Despite losing each of the last three days, Oakland is still a .500 team on the season. That includes a 7-4 record when Mengden starts as he's gone 3-0 his L3 outings w/ some ridiculous numbers, like a 0.41 ERA and 0.591 WHIP. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (16 IP) including a complete game two-hit shutout of Arizona on Saturday. Prior to that, he also allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings in a win at Toronto. Going back further, Mengden has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including five straight. He's allowed just four runs over his last 33 2/3 IP. While strikeout numbers are by no means dominant, he did induce 13 outs via groundball last time out, which is typically a good sign. 

Now the Oakland offense is going to have to "wake up" here as they've been shutout twice in the series and scored just three runs in 31 total innings vs. Rays pitching. Fortunately, the team's home run leader (Khris Davis) is expected to be back in the lineup today. While the home run ball hasn't really been a problem for the A's during Davis' absence (they've hit five - but all were solo shots), still they've scored just 15 total runs in nine games w/o him. Tampa Bay continues to be extremely creative w/ its pitching staff (like it!) and has actually used 12 different arms in this series. Today, they'll go w/ Ryne Stanek as the starter for just the second time all season. His first start was Saturday, but he faced only five batters (retired them all). He also pitched on Monday, in relief, and got the win thanks to 1 2/3 scoreless innings. As creative as TB skipper Kevin Cash has been, I don't see the Rays "solving" Mengden and the A's avoid the sweep. 10* Oakland

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Well, after they came from behind to "steal" the series opener Monday night, turns out that it was a mistake jumping on the Dodgers' bandwagon Tuesday as they fell 6-1 to the Phillies. Given that they scored all of one run the entire game, maybe this didn't matter, but starter Kenta Maeda had to leave early (in the second inning) and to me that was the clear culprit in what ended up being a bad night. Facing a red-hot Jake Arrieta didn't help matters either for Dodger Blue. But this team is still due for better results, given it has not only outscored its opponents this season, but also owns the best run differential in the entire NL West! They've dug themselves a bit of a hole to start the season, but it's not something that they can't climb out of. 

Last night's win was just the second for the Phillies in the L3 seasons at Chavez Ravine. Granted, they haven't been very good the last two years. But this team, despite its "breakthrough success" early on in 2018, is surprisingly just 14-15 off a win so far and has a losing road record. There's no Arrieta to lean on tonight as it will instead by Zach Eflin on the bump. Eflin has lasted only 4 2/3 innings each of his last two starts and has given up a total of 10 runs. Three of those were unearned, but there's really no sugarcoating his last time out when he gave up six runs (five earned) to an American League opponent (Toronto) that was sans its DH. 

The Dodgers counter w/ Ross Stripling, who is only in the starting rotation due to injuries suffered by both Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. However, Stripling has certainly pitched as if he "belongs" in this starting group as he's averaging a very impressive 10.89 K's per nine innings. Over his L3 starts, he has a 26-0 KW ratio over 18 IP. He's allowed just four runs total his last four starts (one unearned) and now has a 1.74 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work. Last time out may have been his sharpest performance to date as he threw 10 K's in 6 2/3 innings and gave up just an unearned run. He's also allowed zero home runs over those last four starts. Stripling has a much better WHIP than Eflin recently (0.889 vs. 1.437 L3 starts respectively) and I see the Dodgers going up in this series. 8* LA Dodgers

8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The NL Central looks to have the potential to be the tightest pennant race this season w/ every team - sans Cincinnati - having a legit shot at winning the division. Two of the four teams in question play a rubber match this afternoon after splitting a pair of battles Monday and Tuesday. The Brewers are in first place right now, at least 3.5 games up on the rest of the field, which includes St. Louis. But the Cards won here yday, in pretty dominant fashion, by a score of 6-1. That put them four games back of the division lead and in third place. My view on the Brew Crew is that they are being "artificially" propped up by a rather fortunate 14-5 record in one run games (best in MLB), not to mention they're also 4-1 in extra inning affairs. I look for their "luck" to take a turn for the worse moving forward and I believe they'll lose this series finale. 

Milwaukee had won four in a row going into yday, but quickly found itself down to the Redbirds on Tuesday and never really got back in the game. Three home runs, plus 6 2/3 strong innings from starter Michael Wacha, keyed the St. Louis victory which was their third in the last four games. Today, we'll see Alex Reyes make his first big-league start since 2016. He missed all of LY due to Tommy John surgery, but his minor league performance should give St. Louis plenty of reason for optimism. Reyes has pitched 23 scoreless innings "down on the farm" while striking out an incredible 44 of the 82 batters he faced (allowed only 14 baserunners)! That sounds a lot like his 2016 performance when he struck out 52 in 46 IP w/ a 1.57 ERA. Like I said, there's plenty of reasons to be excited here.

Milwaukee's Junior Guerra survived allowing two solo home runs in his last start and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season. But his strikeout numbers remain pretty unimpressive while his walk totals are pretty high. Over his L3 starts, he has a KW ratio of only 10-6 and that's w/ no free passes his last time out. The team has actually not done that well w/ Guerra on the hill, going only 2-4 his last six starts after winning each of his first three. He's already faced St. Louis already this season and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. But in five career starts against them, his ERA is still just 4.74. While these division rivals have split eight games so far this season, three of the Cards' four wins have been by four runs or more while Milwaukee's four wins have come by eight runs total (three by one run). 8* St. Louis

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Endorsements of the Padres this season will be few and far between, but this series represents one of the few times they'll be favored on the money line, and for good reason, as they're at home facing an opponent that is actually inferior on paper. Now Miami did come in and take yday's series opener, by a score of 7-2. But this Marlins team is really bad and I love the idea of fading them off a win. Not only do the Fish own one of the worst records in the entire National League (20-33), they also have the worst run differential (-90) in all of baseball. As bad as things have been for them so far this season, one could argue that they should be even worse. Case in point, they're somehow 10-15 on the road despite being outscored by 2.2 rpg! 

Because they are almost always underdogs, the Marlins have actually not dropped many units at the pay windown (only -1.3 for the season). By far, their most profitable starter has been Dan Straily, who will get the baseball tonight. The team has won all five Straily starts this season, even though his numbers haven't exactly been dominant. We're talking a 3.12 ERA and a pretty pedestrian 1.38 WHIP. He is a pretty remarkable +7.5 units for the year after cashing as a +210 dog on the money line against Jacob deGrom and the Mets his last time out. But I don't see it lasting. His KW ratio (for the season) is an unimpressive 19-17. Miami is just 7-12 off a win this season.

San Diego will counter w/ its best pitcher on Tuesday, that being Tyson Ross. The team has gone 7-3 in Ross' 10 starts so far this season, including a perfect 3-0 here at home. His recent string of performances (he has a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP) has led to trade speculation, but while the Padres still have him, they might as well take advantage. Last time out, Ross allowed just 1 ER (on on a solo HR) and 5 hits in 6 2/3 IP. He also struck out nine batters, nearly half the number we've seen Straily strike out in his five outings this year. Earlier, I talked about the Padres not being favored on the ML very often. Well, they are a perfect 2-0 in 2018 as a home fave in the -125 to -175 range. They're also 16-5 in that same range the L3 seasons! 8* San Diego

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): For a Dodgers team that has had no luck (except the bad kind!) in 2018, last night was most definitely a welcome result. Down 4-0 to the Phillies after just two innings, they easily could have chalked things up as "another loss," but instead they came all the way back to win, 5-4, thanks to a three-run eighth. While Dodger Blue is still sitting below .500 (at 25-28), they do continue to own the NL West's best run differential (now +23), which bodes well for their future. If it wasn't for such a poor head to head mark w/ the D'backs, they'd certainly already be ahead of them and first place Colorado looks especially vulnerable given its own -21 run differential. I expect the Dodgers to win tonight and continue to move up the division standings. 

Philadelphia has fallen to third in a competitive NL East that includes surprising Atlanta and stalwart Washington. They've dropped four of six overall and it's been nearly two weeks since they won B2B games. One area in need of improvement is their play on the road. They enter this game having lost 13 of 23 away from home this year (71-114 L3 seasons) and have been outscored by 0.6 rpg. The offense batting a collective .220 in road games certainly doesn't help. Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta has had his own personal struggles as well. He has a 5.12 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in four road starts so far w/ the team going 1-3. He made it through only three innings the last time he started a road game. Save for a no-hitter back in '15, Arrieta has never won here at Dodgers Stadium, coming up short in the other four tries. 

The Dodgers counter here w/ Kenta Maeda, who is on a roll. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (14 2/3 IP total) w/ 20 K's and only four total hits allowed. Over the L7 games, LA pitching has held opponents to a .196 batting average and run suppression has generally never been a problem for them here at Chavez Ravine. For the season, they allow just 3.8 rpg here and a .232 BA. Maeda didn't allow a hit through five innings last time out and induced 19 swinging strikes. His strikeout rate this season (11.7 batters per nine innings) would qualify as a career-best and his 12 K's in that last start were a career-best for any individual outing. I'm still a believer in this Dodgers club, moreso than Philly, and am "all in" on them Tuesday. 10* LA Dodgers

8* LA Angels (1:10 ET): I played the Angels both Friday and Saturday and won both times. Now the run line came in handy in Friday's game as they lost to the Yankees by one run. After winning Saturday, 11-4, they reverted back w/ a 3-1 loss on Sunday. The team is now 1-8 head to head w/ the Red Sox and Yankees in 2018, but 28-16 against everyone else. Fortunately for them, they're now done with the top two from the AL East w/ the exception of a series in Beantown next month. This week is the proverbial "drop in class" as they'll take on the Tigers and Rangers. Up first is a visit to Detroit. Considering LA is still 17-7 on the road and the Tigers aren't a very good team, I'll gladly throw my support behind the visitors in this one. 

LA has pushed back Shohei Ohtani's next start in an effort to decrease the two-way phenom's workload. It would appear as if he's in line to toe the rubber Wednesday. That means he'll DH Monday while Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. Skaggs has struck out six or more batters in five straight outings (35 total in 27 2/3 IP) against just eight walks. He's unbeaten on the road (3-0 in five starts) w/ a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Really, Skaggs has pitched better than his TSR (5-5 indicates) as he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of his 10 starts. The offense should produce more w/ both Ohtani and Mike Trout in the lineup today. If the former is getting the start Weds, then he'll be given off Tuesday as per usual. The latter had a career night at the plate Saturday, going 5 for 5 w/ four extra base hits. 

Detroit is off the rare winning weekend, but keep in mind they were playing the White Sox. I played against them Saturday when they lost 8-4. The Tigers have been a winning proposition here at Comerica Park so far this season, but I'm not convinced that will last. Matt Boyd gets the baseball Monday and while he's pitched well here (0.945 WHIP in four starts), his last outing (was on the road) was certainly an interesting one. It lasted just four innings and while he allowed just one hit, he actually gave up two runs as he had control issues (four walks). On top of that, he didn't strike a single batter out. The Angels are the better team here and I expect them to come in and show that Monday afternoon. 8* LA Angels

10* Houston (1:05 ET): The Astros may have had to settle for a split in Cleveland over the weekend (4-game series), including a 14-inning loss on a Sunday. But there's no denying that the defending World Series Champs are a very good team. That's confirmed by a MLB-best +122 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team), which says their 34-20 record should be even better (run differential of a 42-12 team). Armed w/ revenge and perhaps the top pitcher in baseball so far in '18, I like them Monday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees took three of four from the 'Stros to start the month, including a pair of shutouts, but I see a very different result taking place in this series opener. 

Let's talk a bit about Verlander, shall we? With 10 quality starts in 11 tries, he leads all of MLB in both ERA (1.08) and WHIP (0.71). So its pretty stunning his team start record is only 7-4, which works out to money-losing proposition (-2.5 units). It's only a matter of time before that works itself out. Verlander has allowed more than 2 ER in only one start and that was back on April 3rd. Since then, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in eight of nine starts, including all five here in May! He did pitch in the previous series vs. the Yankees and was absolutely dominant. He tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 14 strikeouts! Unfortunately, the bullpen and offense betrayed him in what ended up being a 4-0 loss. After tossing a complete game, five-hit shutout on 5.16 vs. the Angels, Verlander closed north of -300 on the money line in his last start and responded in kind by allowing just one run on three hits. The Astros won (over the Giants) 3-1. 

After starting the season 26-10, the Yankees have gone just 7-6 the L13 games. They did take two of three from the Angels over the weekend, doing Houston a favor in the process, but were actually outscored in the series. That's thanks to losing the middle game, 11-4. (Both wins, 2-1 on Friday and 3-1 Sunday, were quite low-scoring). Having Domingo German start opposite Verlander seems like the definition of a mismatch. German has allowed 6 ER in B2B outings. That's more than Verlander has allowed this season in his 11 starts! The Astros are 18-9 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by more than a 2:1 margin. I realize that they were able to beat up on a beleaguered Indians bullpen in the last series, but w/ Verlander on the bump today, they shouldn't need much offense. The best team in baseball w/ perhaps the best pitcher in baseball sounds like a good bet to me! The number of times from here on out that we can get Verlander at this price will be few and far between, if non-existent. 10* Houston

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs lost to the Giants last night, so I'm basically willing to back them at any decent price Sunday night and fortunately the oddsmakers are giving us one. Despite currently languishing in fourth place in the crowded NL Central, the Cubs actually own the division's best run differential (+65) - by a pretty wide margin. In fact, that's the best run differential in the entire National League! Meanwhile, the Giants might only be two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 39 runs on the season. So what we have here is one of baseball's biggest underachievers and overachievers, in terms of record vs. scoring differential, facing off. In such instances, I'll almost always side w/ the team that has the better run differential. I just can't see the Cubs dropping two in a row here at Wrigley to the Giants.

Yu Darvish was set to start this game for the Cubbies, but he's back on the DL w/ right triceps tendinitis. Darvish signed a big deal in the offeseason, but there might already be some "buyer's remorse" here given he's only 1-3 w/ a 4.95 ERA. So the fact he'll be absent from the mound tonight really does not concern me. Instead, Tyler Chatwood moves up a day to take the spot in the rotation. Chatwood's team start record is only 3-6 and he has a 1.620 WHIP, but he figures to pitch better here than he did vs. Cleveland on Tuesday where he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. Chatwood has largely been immune to the home run ball, giving up only two all season, and the Giants are hardly the most fearsome offense in the game. In fact, on the road this season, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game. In 16 career starts, Chatwood has a 2.84 ERA vs. the Giants

The win yday snapped a three-game skid for San Francisco where they had scored all of five runs. They twice rallied from deficits, 2-0 and 3-2, to get the win. But I don't see them following that up w/ another win as Ty Blach is starting and he's not been good at all this season as is evident by a 7.11 ERA and 1.896 WHIP his L3 starts. He's failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of those three starts, yet has still given up 12 runs. Shockingly though, the team is 5-1 his L6 starts. The Giants are still just 11-17 on the road though, getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Run Line NY Mets (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Mets at +1.5. After taking the opener of this four-game series, the Metropolitans have lost two in a row. They fell by one run (in extra innings) on Friday and then were absolutely bludgeoned in a 17-6 defeat yesterday. The former is a result that work just fine for us, given our use of the RL here, and the latter sets us up w/ the requisite value for being able to use the RL at a decent price. I remain unsold on Milwaukee, who does lead the NL Central at 33-20, but they've also been "propped up" by a 13-5 record in one-run games and they're 4-1 in extra innings. Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Believe it or not, but the Mets actually led 3-0 yday after the top of the first. But the Brew Crew quickly answered w/ three runs of their own. Note that the Mets did score again in both the second and third innings, only to again allow Milwaukee to tie things up (at 5-5) in the bottom of the third. It was a 7-6 game heading into the bottom half of the fifth when the home team tacked three more runs on the board. A seven-run eighth wasn't needed but put the "exclamation point" on the victory. It was the Brewers' eighth win in the L10 games as they tied the record for most runs scored in a game at Miller Park. It was also their largest margin of victory this season. 

For all that, Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself coming into today's series finale. They have their most consistent pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, on the mound as well. However, Chacin is just 2-5 lifetime vs. NY w/ a 5.76 ERA. He also did have four walks in his last start. Interesting is that even following yday's offensive outburst, the Brewers are still only basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed here at home. The Mets remain a winning proposition on the road this year (13-10) and are 3-1 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Though he's had a couple of rough outings this month (both at home), the Mets' Zack Wheeler is off a strong showing his last time out where he allowed just three runs (only 1 earned) and had nine strikeouts. Don't blame him for losing that one. Wheeler has also pitched better on the road this season w/ a 3-1 TSR, 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

8* Run Line LA Angels (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. Doing this worked out well last night as the Angels dropped the game, 2-1, thereby coming through for us on the RL. Problem is that they're still winless this season in four tries against the Yankees, thus our theme of revenge in tonight's three-pack continues. The Angels may be 0-7 against the Red Sox and Yankees this season, but they're 28-16 against everyone else and remain a strong value getting the additional 1.5 runs, especially at this price. Look for them again to do no worse than a one-run defeat tonight.

Last night saw the Angels have to contend w/ Luis Severino, who added to his MLB best net units (now +9.0) by leading his team to another victory. They could manage just the one run off Severino on Friday, but still were in solid position to win most of the way, as late as the eighth inning when Shohei Ohtani came to bat w/ a chance to tie. But it simply wasn't to be. But the good news here is that the Halos get to face Sonny Gray tonight rather than Severino. Though Gray pitched well his last time out, that came against the lousy Royals and he still has a 5.48 ERA and 1.630 WHIP after nine starts. His numbers are even worse here at Yankee Stadium (6.48, 1.76) and the Angels still have the best road record in all of MLB at 16-6.

The Angels will send Jamie Barria out to the bump tonight and that's a good thing. Through five starts, Barria has a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP and he's been at his best on the road where his ERA/WHIP are 0.87 and 0.968 respectively. He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start and did not face the Yankees in the prior series. He's allowed just six runs in 25 1/3 IP and last time out held Houston to just one run on four hits in 7 1/3. He had seven strikeouts and no walks and gave his team a chance (where they ultimately came up short) against Gerrit Cole. That game came all the way back on 5.15, so the rookie is well-rested here and in good position to help his team break through for the first time against the Yanks. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the White Sox at +1.5. The White Sox appeared poised to start this series out w/ a win as they quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night and led 4-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth. But that's when their bullpen betrayed them, giving up three runs in that half inning, resulting in a 5-4 loss. They're now 0-4 head to head w/ the Tigers in 2018. The revenge angle is still in play (boy, will today's three-pack resemble last night's) and because of that I'm back the road team again in this one. Only this time it's getting the additional 1.5 runs, a situation which would have resulted in a win last night. 

The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15) and a pitcher that has an 0-4 team start record (w/ a 7.11 ERA and 1.684 WHIP) going tonight. That may not sound all that promising, but it's not like the Tigers are any "great shakes." The team from the Motor City came into this series as losers of five of their last six. Now they've won B2B games, but that doesn't bode too well for them considering win streaks of three or more have been rare this year. There's been only three of them previously, the longest at four straight. Obviously, one was the prior sweep of the White Sox. The other included a sweep of another last place team, Baltimore. The team is still averaging only 2.7 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .216.

The starter for the White Sox here is Hector Santiago. While his numbers are poor; they're largely skewed by one awful start against Minnesota earlier this month. In the other three, he's allowed 3 ER or less everytime. All three of those have resulted in one-run losses, again, a result that would be just fine given how we're playing this one. Allowing three solo home runs his last time out was simply a tough break as those were the only runs he gave up in the contest. Santiago will be opposed here by Francisco Liriano, who is off a shockingly good showing at Seattle on Sunday where he went eight innings and gave up only one hit. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that from a starter who has a 4.64 ERA and 1.406 WHIP at home this year (4 starts). I won't be backing Chicago much this season, but I will here until they get a win over this division rival. You just don't see a team sweep another twice in a row very often, especially if it's division rivals. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Arizona snapped what had been an ugly seven-game slide w/ a 7-1 win in Oakland last night. But I don't look for the good times to last here for the D'backs as their up against Daniel Mengden Saturday afternoon and a ML underdog for good reason. Mengden's 4-4 record (6-4 TSR) is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched for the A's as he comes into this game carrying a 3.30 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. He's been even sharper of late w/ a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. During their losing streak, Arizona wasn't scoring many runs (just 12 total!), so this would certainly appear to be a bad matchup for them on paper. Not even the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup can save them here.

The D'backs are a team I expected to regress in 2018. I think that's a pretty logical take considering last year saw them jump from 69 wins (in '16) to 93 and a surprising Wild Card berth. In no way am I intimating that they'll drop to 2016 levels, but certainly they won't be hitting last season's win total either. Now, I recognize I looked pretty foolish early on as they were 20-8 at the end of April. But then came what we'll call a rather huge "market correction." Not only had the club dropped seven in a row going into yday; they'd lost 13 of 14 overall! They scored two runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including the lone win (2-1 over Milwaukee on 5.15). They've now fallen out of first place in the NL West as they currently trail the Rockies by one-half game. 

Though the offense was able to "break out" last night, I don't see that happening again today against Mengden, who has given up 2 ER or fewer in six of his last seven outings. He's off arguably his best; having thrown seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Toronto Sunday. While his strikeout numbers are far from dominant, the bottom line is he's allowed just four runs this month, in 24 2/3 IP. I don't see Clay Buchholz, who is starting for just the second time this year, matching him. Buchholz made his season debut on Sunday and while he pitched well (allowed just one run on two hits), the D'backs still lost, wasting that effort. Buchholz has never pitched well here in Oakland (9.58 ERA in three career starts) and remains a huge question mark having gone 13 months in between big-league starts. 10* Oakland

8* St. Louis (4:05 ET): The Cardinals dropped to 0-4 head to head w/ the Pirates this season as they had a poor showing last night here at PNC Park, losing 8-1. In a crowded NL Central field (absent Cincinnati), such a poor head to head mark against any division rival could come back to haunt you. St. Louis is currently fourth out of the four-team logjam, but just four games out of first place. They're only one game back of the second place Pirates, despite the 0-4 record, so they're lucky there. I can't see the Cards getting swept again by the Bucs this weekend, so I'm back on them today as the revenge angle continues to be prevalent. 

Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped three in a row. Prior to last night's series opener, they'd embarrassingly dropped two at home to the lowly Royals. This is the third three-game skid for the Cards so far in 2018. The good news is that they have yet to lose four in a row. Over the L3 seasons, they are 23-8 when on a losing streak of three or more games. Charged w/ being the "stopper" here is Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well for them of late. Flaherty was flat out dominant in his last start, striking out 13 over 7 2/3 innings and giving up just one run on two hits against a good Phillies team. Flaherty has allowed 1 ER in three of his four starts this year. Ironically, the one he did not was against Pittsburgh, but even then, he gave up only three. Flaherty's WHIP over his L3 starts is an impressive 0.927. 

Now runs may be tough to come by for the Redbirds as well considering they're up against Trevor Williams, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 13 of his last 15 starts here at home (dating back to last season). Williams did outduel Flaherty last month, giving up just two runs over six innings. But I don't see that result repeating itself here as I'm simply not a believer in this Bucs team long-term. They'd lost five of six coming into this series w/ those games coming against two last place teams: San Diego and Cincinnati. All were here at home as well. St. Louis is too good (and too proud) to be swept for a second time by the Pirates. 8* St. Louis

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): While I remain unsold on the Mariners long-term (too many one-run victories lately), it's tough NOT to like them here, or any time when James Paxton is starting, for that matter. Despite being only 3-1 (6-4 TSR), Paxton has certainly been one of baseball's best pitchers in 2018 w/ 1.021 WHIP and two complete game shutouts to his credit, one of them a no-hitter back on 5.8 @ Toronto. He again went the distance his last time out, this time allowing just three hits in a 7-2 win over the Tigers. Tonight, he faces a Twins team that is just 26th in runs scored. Outside the division, AL Central teams are a woeful 54-98 so far (.355 win percentage) and I just can't see Minnesota beating Seattle for a second time w/ Paxton starting. 

These teams have already met three times before, all in the Twin Cities. Two of those games were played in early April, then a rainout was made up on 5.14. Back in one of the early April games, the Twins beat the M's w/ Paxton on the hill. Paxton went only five innings and allowed two runs in a no-decision. (Twins won 4-2 in a very cold home opener). Paxton has made eight starts since and seven of them have been quality, including each of the last five. Over those five consecutive quality outings, he's allowed just seven runs total in 37 IP. He has a ridiculous 45 strikeouts during that time as well. He's been particularly great at home where his WHIP is 0.975. He won't have to worry about the cold weather this time around and still has a 2.91 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. 

Facing a pitcher who has a 0.542 (which Paxton does) over his L3 starts is problematic enough for a team. That's what the Twins are dealing w/ here and they're just 2-5 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 on the ML this season (29-46 L3 seasons in that range). They send Fernando Romero to the bump on Friday and while he's unbeaten (2-0) in four starts (2-2 TSR though), he's off his weakest effort to date as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee on Sunday. The Twins lost that game, 5-4, and while they "recovered" to win their next three, they're off a home loss here to Detroit on Wednesday. Playing after an off-day, the team is only 2-5 this season, so I don't think the rest advantage matters here. Seattle had won five in a row (four by one-run) before losing by one-run yday afternoon in Oakland. Paxton leads them to victory at home tonight. 8* Seattle

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): As most though it would be, the American League Central is very bad this year. Despite being only a .500 team entering Friday, Cleveland figures to run away w/ the division as I don't believe any of the other four teams figure to finish w/ a wining record at season's end. Collectively, the AL Central has a win percentage of .355 outside the division (54-98 overall) and the last place White Sox have been the biggest "offenders" w/ a 9-23 mark in such games. They were also swept at home by the Tigers very early on in the season and tonight have their shot at avenging that. The theme of this three-pack has been taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep and I won't deviate from this game plan here!

The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15), but have played better of late as they've won five of their last eight, even after a loss yday. That loss resulted in four-game split w/ fellow cellar-dwellars Baltimore, that coming after taking three of four from the AL's other last place team, Texas. It's not much of a step up in class facing the Tigers, who ended an ugly five-game losing streak w/ a win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The last time Detroit scored more than four runs in a game was 5.15 vs. Cleveland. That bodes well for Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez, who didn't allow any runs in his last start. He went eight innings against the Rangers on 5.20, allowing only two hits. It was the seventh time in nine starts this season that Lopez allowed 2 ER or fewer. So, he's certainly deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Sure enough, he has a 2.98 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. 

Lopez has lost only three decisions and one of them was in that previous series vs. Detroit. But in his start there, he allowed only an unearned run in 7 IP. Note that he was priced at -170 on the ML for that matchup, so it's solid value on him in the revenge spot. Again, he'll be matched up against Michael Fiers, who threw six innings of shutout ball in that first meeting. But Fiers has been quite inconsistent so far this season, including his last time out where he allowed four runs, which is far too many when facing James Paxton. Despite owning the better TSR, Fiers has an ERA that's a full point and a half higher than Lopez and his WHIP is higher as well. While the Tigers are a respectable 14-11 in day games this season, they are only 7-17 at night. Make it 7-18. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Run Line LA Angels (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. I've written about this in previous discussions about the Angels, but they've really struggled when taking on the American League's top teams. Against Boston, Houston and the Yankees, they're a combined 3-9 w/ all three wins coming against the Astros. They're 25-13 against "everyone else." They were swept by both the Red Sox and Yankees back in April. They get a chance to avenge the latter tonight and even though they are rather massive underdogs on the money line, I see them having a shot to pull it off. Certainly, they'll do no worse than a one-run defeat here. Take the +1.5. 

Now I am by no means attempting to minimize the accomplishments of Yanks' starter Luis Severino. Two years removed from an 0-8 record as a starter, Severino is now the most profitable pitcher to bet on (so far) here in 2018. He's got a 9-1 team start record (+8.0 units) and absolutely deserves it, given a corresponding 2.35 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. He's had only one non-quality start and that was the loss in Boston back on April 10th. He did face the Angels in the previous series and held them to three runs over seven innings. However, that was still only a one-run victory as the Yankees needed runs in the 9th and 10th innings to come out ahead. In fact, two of the Yankees' wins in that three game sweep last month were of the one-run variety. We can live w/ that result here.

The Yankees may have scored 10 or more runs in three of the last four games, but for just the second time in the last month, they're coming off B2B losses. Those came at Texas of all places. A big reason I feel that the Angels are a tremendous value here is their 16-5 road record is the best in baseball and they are averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game. Shohei Ohtani will no longer be starting in this series, but he'll still hit and he's coming off a strong game yday where he had two doubles, leading an 8-1 win at Toronto. Andrew Heaney will be the one starting Friday and getting hit for four unearned runs his last time out snapped a string of four consecutive quality starts. He's allowed five or less hits in five straight starts, giving up just 4 ER total. Note that the Yankees are just 5-5 the L10 games after going 17-1 their previous 18. It makes sense that they're cooling off following such a ridiculous run and that cooling off period should extend into this weekend. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Taking the woeful Reds out of the equation, the NL Central may be shaping up as baseball's toughest division in 2018. Entering the weekend, the two clubs here find themselves involved in a four-team race where everyone is separated by just 3.5 games. Milwaukee currently has the lead, but I'm not really buying into them as their record is being propped up by a somewhat fortunate 12-5 mark in one-run games. For my money, the Cubs are probably the division's best (confirmed by a +62 run differential?). That brings us to the two teams in question here, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals enter in off B2B disappointing losses to Kansas City (had yday off) while the Bucs have lost five of six, all of the setbacks coming at the hands of San Diego or Cincinnati at home, no less. The Cards have revenge here for getting swept here at PNC Park back in April and I'm on them in the series opener. 

Losing twice in a row to Kansas City at home is pretty unforgiveable, if you're St. Louis, or really any other team for that matter. The Cards didn't score much in either game (just three runs total) and lost the series finale in extra innings Wednesday. They're just 4-7 the L11 games, but I look for them to turn it around here as they give John Gant the baseball. Gant is off a strong showing w/ a career-best seven strikeouts (in just 4 1/3 innings). In the rotation only due to an injury to Adam Wainwright, Gant is -sadly - still looking for his 1st win (as a starter) since 2016. He got a no decision his last time out and the offense failed to score for him in his first outing. Tonight though, he faces a Pittsburgh offense that has scored three runs or less in five of the last 10 games and topped five just once during that same span.

The Pirates counter w/ Joe Musgrove, who is making his '18 debut. He was considered the prize in the haul acquired for Gerrit Cole in the trade w/ Houston. Truthfully, he wasn't all that great w/ the Astros last season as he finished up in the bullpen (after failing as a starter) and went 7-8 w/ a 4.77 ERA. The Pirates' rotation will be relying on him from here on out, which perhaps "speaks volumes." Musgrove started in four different places in Pittsburgh's minor league system while working his way back. But even though the Redbirds struggled at the plate the L2 games, they'll present Musgrove w/ a greater challenge than he's faced in a while. I like the revenge angle and the visitors here. 8* St. Louis

8* Run Line Cleveland (6:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Indians at +1.5. It's a revenge spot for the Tribe, and specifically starter Mike Clevinger, who came out on the losing end to the Astros and Charlie Morton last Saturday. The same two starters face off again here as the teams will play four more against one another this weekend after the Astros won two of three in their home park last weekend. The "immediate revenge" situation is one of my favorites in MLB handicapping as you take the losing starter from the first meeting, figuring he (and the team) will be highly motivated. Add in the fact Cleveland is at home here and we can get an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at a decent price) and it's a "no-brainer" to me.

Houston's pitching staff has easily been baseball's best in 2018, but Cleveland is one of the few teams w/ the capability of matching them. Case in point, the Indians were able to win a game yday in Chicago despite scoring only one run. In fact, they held the Cubs to just one run total in two games at Wrigley. So is the fact they've allowed just 12 runs over the last six games. Clevinger has given up 3 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season and that includes last week vs. Houston where he allowed three in 6 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-worst) did burn him. But it was also Clevinger's first loss of '18 after starting 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA. Be careful about criticizing Cleveland's .500 record as they've outscored opponents by 28 runs over the course of the season.

Houston has the best run differential in all of baseball (+110) and has won three straight after their own sweep of a NL opponent (Giants). Morton is 6-0 (6-3 TSR) w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.934, which almost seems unfair given the other names in this rotation (Keuchel, Cole, Verlander). But winning by multiple runs in Cleveland should prove tricky for the Astros. The Indians are averaging a strong 5.8 runs per game at Progressive Field and aren't priced this way too often. Morton has also only had to make two road starts so far and his last one (5.5 vs. Arizona) was easily his weakest of the season as he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts and lasted just five innings. That was in a NL park as well w/ no DH. The Indians do no worse than a one-run loss in this revenge spot. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): By all rights, the Dodgers should be dead and buried right now. A myrid of injuries (among other issues) have them currently six games below .500 and they're also down an unspeakable 23.8 units at the betting window. Yet, the rest of the NL West is doing a "good job" of keeping the Dodgers alive. Dave Roberts' ballclub actually owns the best run differential in the division following a win over the Rockies last night. They're +13 for the year, which is an interesting contrast to their opponents, who are in first place (26-23), but -25. The fact that LA is only 4.5 games back of the division lead is pretty incredible and given what those respective run differentials say about the individual teams' records, I'll call for the Dodgers to win again Wednesday!

There were signs of life from the Dodgers over the weekend when they went to D.C. and swept the Nationals. But upon returning home Monday, they lost to the Rockies, 2-1. It was the kind of frustrating setback that's all too indicative of the season at Chavez Ravine w/ the Dodgers losing despite giving up only three hits. But credit them for bouncing back yday. I've written about this extensively before, but the Rockies are a franchise that has been largely defined by its home park through their history. This year has seen them "step up" on the road w/ a 19-12 record (most road wins in MLB), but I find it interesting that they've barely outscored opponents in those games. The offense, and this has always been the case throughout the history of the franchise, has generally been lifeless outside of Coors Field, averaging just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .217.

Dodger pitching has held opponents to a .175 BA over its L7 games and I like starter Kenta Maeda's chances here tonight. He's been inconsistent, but is coming off an absolute gem as he tossed eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Miami last week. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado, holding them to a .200 BA in seven career starts w/ a 36-5 KW ratio. He's 4-2 w/ a 2.56 ERA. Maeda will be opposed tonight by Kyle Freeland, who has been perfect so far in May w/ a 3-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. But I sense a "slip up" is forthcoming as he's 1-2 w/ a 4.26 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. Simply put, the Rockies are not as good as their record while the Dodgers are better than theirs. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Even by the American League's generally low standards, these two teams are pretty lousy. Only five A.L. teams are currently above .500, a stark contrast to the N.L., and these two also-rans happen to reside near the bottom w/ the fewest and second fewest number of wins in all of baseball. Chicago has the fewest (14), but avoids the dubious distinction of being a last place team thanks to Kansas City, who has two more losses. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 15-33 including a dreadful 5-20 away from Camden Yards. However, they are favored on the ML here, which should tell you all you "need to know" about the sorry state of the White Sox. Thus far in the series, the teams have exchange 3-2 victories, but I'll call for the Orioles to win big in the rubber match. 

There have been just four instances all year of the O's winning B2B games. They failed to make it five last night when they gave up three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Shame on the bullpen for wasting a perfectly fine start from Kevin Gausman, who tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings and matched a career-best w/ 10 K's. Since a 17-run outburst against Tampa Bay back on 5.13, Baltimore has managed just 18 runs total in its last seven games. Six of those have seen them get held to three runs or fewer. But I'll call for them to break out of the slump here tonight against Dylan Covey, the White Sox starter who has never won in the big leagues in 14 tries. He's 0-8 lifetime, w/ a 7.58 ERA, and this is just his second start of 2018. He allowed four runs in six innings in the first, a 5-2 loss to the lowly Royals. 

As we saw last night, Baltimore desperately misses closer Zach Britton. But it's not like this is an opponent they can't take advantage of. Through the first 16 innings of the series, O's pitching had allowed just two runs total. Alex Cobb gets the nod tonight, coming off his first win of the season in seven tries. He held Boston to only three runs in 6 1/3 innings of work for what was his third quality effort in the last four outings. It's not like the White Sox are a good home team; their seven wins are tied for the fewest in all of MLB and they're getting outscored here by 1.7 rpg. Only KC and Miami have worse overall run differentials. Again, I think it "speaks volumes" that Baltimore is favored on the ML here and I'll take 'em. 10* Baltimore

8* Under Giants/Astros (2:10 ET): As one might have suspected, the Astros had little difficulty beating the Giants on Tuesday as it was an 11-2 final that saw starter Gerrit Cole pitch well yet again and Tony Kemp provide most of the offense w/ a career-best 5 RBI game. For my money, Houston is the best team in baseball as they've already outscored the opposition by 107 runs, thanks in large part to a pitching staff that is easily the most dominant in all of baseball. The Giants offense does receive the benefit of the designated hitter in these two games, but that mattered little last night and shouldn't matter much today either, as they have to face Justin Verlander. The only difference between today and last night is that Houston should score less as well. Take the Under. 

The Astros pitching staff is #1 in baseball no matter how you look at it as they rank #1 in runs allowed, ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average. Over the last 10 games, they've given up two runs or fewer eight times and more than three just once! Look for Verlander to continue that trend this afternoon. He comes in red hot w/ a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed just three runs total (two earned) over his last four, which have spanned 29 innings. Last time out, he threw a complete game shutout against the Angels. Even on a staff as great as this one, Verlander stands above the rest as he leads all of MLB individually in ERA, WHIP, opponents batting average and OPS. Over his last eight starts, he's given up just six runs TOTAL! 

Giants' starter Jeff Samardzija is not having anywhere close to the year that Verlander is. The former Notre Dame wide receiver comes in w/ a 6.30 ERA and 1.599 WHIP after six starts and the Over is 5-0-1. But, he was respectable his last time out, holding Colorado to just three runs and five hits in a quality effort. Samardzija figures to get little run support here (Giants averaging only 3.2 rpg on the road), but he can keep his team in it considering Houston has hardly been an offensive juggernaut here at home. They average just 4.1 rpg at Minute Maid Park w/ a collective .237 batting average. Like the oddsmakers' number here too as 7.0 is a key number when betting MLB totals. Assuming the Astros take care of business here as a large ML favorite, we should also avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which often times can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. 8* Under Giants/Astros

6* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. I did the same yday and unfortunately the team "forgot to score," dropping a tough 2-0 decision on the road to the Mets, who are now 4-0 this season vs. the Fish. They swept them back during an 11-1 start, but since then NY has largely floundered under first year skipper Mickey Callahan, going just 13-18 overall. Keep in mind they've also now won four straight, so the slide had been much worse prior to this, their longest win streak since that 11-1 start. But I see Miami doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight as they still have revenge and there are "key indicators" that they are the "sharp side" here. Take the +1.5.

Incredibly, last night was the seventh time already that the Marlins have been shutout this season. It was also the second time in the last five games, a stretch which has seen them get held to two runs or fewer four times. But the scoring should come tonight against Zach Wheeler, who has been one of the "weak links" of the Mets' rotation so far. Of course, you could have said the same for last night's starter, Jason Vargas, but look what he did. Still, Wheeler has a 5.92 ERA and 1.553 WHIP through seven starts this year and has been particularly bad here at home w/ a 9.56 ERA and 2.062 WHIP. The team is 0-3 when he starts here at Citi Field as well as 0-3 his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings in what turned out to be an ugly 12-1 loss to the Blue Jays, an American League opponent that was playing w/o the DH. 

Miami looks to have the better starter on the mound again tonight. Last night, Elieser Hernandez pitched well enough to win, but the offense failed to support him. Tonight, we have Caleb Smith, who is off one of his weaker efforts to date, but has also pitched well against the Mets before. Back on 4.10, he allowed just three runs in five innings, but Jacob deGrom and the Mets still won 8-6, thanks to a four-run rally over the final two innings (obviously not Smith's fault). Smith had allowed 2 ER or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last one. Something to keep in mind about Vargas' performance for the Mets last night as that his previous turn in the rotation had been skipped (due to him pitching so poorly), so he was working on extended rest. That is NOT the case here w/ Wheeler. The Mets are still only 27th in MLB in runs scored. 6* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals romped their way to victory on Monday, beating down the Padres 10-2 in the opener of this three-game series. I suspect we'll be seeing similar results over the next two days, particularly tonight as the Nats send the red-hot Jeremy Hellickson to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Hellickson has a 0.52 ERA and 0.519 WHIP and the team has gone 3-0. On a staff that includes names such as Scherzer and Strasburg, Hellickson is right there w/ them, battling for the team lead in ERA and WHIP. He'll be opposed tonight by Eric Lauer, whose numbers currently reside on the opposite end of the spectrum. Lauer has an 8.14 ERA and 2.095 WHIP through five starts, ugly numbers that don't figure to subside here facing a lineup that just scored 10 runs yday. 

Washington had been swept over the weekend, here at home, by the Dodgers. But a visit from a far weaker NL West foe (on paper, at least) figures to bring a much different result. San Diego came to the Nation's Capital riding a three-game win streak, all at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but this is a team destined for last place in its division. Consider last year's team, which wasn't very good (lost 91 games), should have had even more losses based on its run differential of -212 (was easily MLB's worst LY). That's a run diff of an 105-loss team, for the record. The Padres might be 9-11 on the road this year, but they're not scoring much (3.9 rpg) or hitting well either (.222 team BA). They had just two runs on four hits yesterday.

Hellickson has allowed a total of just one run his L3 starts w/ 17 strikeouts and just one walk. While he's pitched more than six innings only once (in six starts) this year, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER. Back on May 8th, he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings (longest start to date) of two-hit ball against these Padres. He also finished that game w/ a season-high eight strikeouts. As for Lauer, he's allowed a total of 10 runs in his last two outings - more than Hellickson has given up all season. It's only taken seven innings for Lauer to give up that many as well. After allowing 4 HR's in an ugly loss to St. Louis on 5.11, he allowed "only" four runs in 4 2/3 innings his last time out. But he certainly "fell apart" the second time through the order and that's a troubling sign. The Nationals are "due" to start performing far better at home and the insertion of 19-year old rookie Juan Soto into the lineup seems to have provided somewhat of an offensive "spark." 8* Washington

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Ask any regular client of mine and they'll tell you that I'm a firm believer in a team's scoring differential being a far better predictor of future results than an actual won-loss record. This goes for any sport. In baseball, as I look at the current NL West standings, I can't help but think the Dodgers are ready to climb while the Rockies are set to fall. Though the latter currently holds a 4.5 game edge over the former, it is Dodger Blue that has actually outscored its opposition over the course of this season (+12 run differential, despite a 20-26 record) while the Rockies have been outscored by 24 runs (despite being 25-22). This series could go a long way in rectifying those disparities. I'm on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener at Chavez Ravine.

We've already started to see some "signs of life" from this Dodgers club as over the weekend they swept the Nationals, in D.C., in impressive fashion. They won every game as a ML dog, but are still "well in the hole" for the season at -23.0 units, which right there should tell you how short of expectations they've been thus far. A lot of that has to do w/ injuries. But w/ tonight being the start of a season-long 10-game homestand, it's a "golden opportunity" to turn things around. Rookie Walker Buehler gets the start tonigt and while it's tempting to say "he's only here" because of injuries to Kershaw and Hill, Buehler is proving he belongs w/ a 2.67 ERA in five starts. His last start, which was on the road, was his weakest to date. In each of the first four, he gave up 2 ER or less (just 4 total) in 22 IP. 

Colorado is a franchise largely defined by its home park and the advantage it provides to hitters, both its own and the opponents. But the last two years have seen this team perform much better on the road than in years past. They are off to an 18-11 start away from Coors Field this season due in large part to their pitching allowing an average of just 3.8 runs per game. But lost in that is their hitters are scoring just 3.9 rpg w/ a collective .221 average. Typical then is that we find tonight's starter German Marquez w/ better numbers on the road than at home. But his WHIP in five road starts is a fairly pedestrian 1.214 and that's facing some pretty bad offenses. The Rockies did lose both games over the weekend (to San Francisco) and the fact they've been outscored by so many runs this season says to me that they are not as strong as their record shows. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Marlins at +1.5. I probably don't have to tell you that it's been a very ugly start to the season for the Fish. They currently own the worst record in the National League (17-29) and the worst overall run differential in all of baseball (-88). Not that this should really come as any real surprise. Though the franchise has two World Series victories to its credit in its relatively brief 25-year history, virtually every other season has seemed only to serve ownership (i.e. their pocketbooks) and not the fanbase. When a Derek Jeter-led group purchased the Marlins in the offseason, an immediate teardown began (yet again) and all the signs of a last place campaign were present.

Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about why I think Miami can win this game! For starters, the team is a respectable 3-3 over its L6 games w/ one of those losses (yesterday's) coming by just one run (and that was after giving up six runs in the bottom of the ninth!). This is also a situation I like as they have revenge for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in April. That came at a time when the Mets were playing great baseball. They started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have since gone just 12-18 their L30 games and that includes a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The current Mets' win streak (three games) is their longest since beginning the season 11-1. I find it's difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, especially if it's a division foe. That's why I look for the Marlins to do no worse than a one-run loss in this game.

In that D'backs-Mets series, I was 2 for 2, cashing the Mets on Friday and then the Under yesterday. In both instances, I leaned heavily on the Mets' starters, who were Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. But I don't dare endorse Monday's starter, Jason Vargas, who comes in w/ a very ugly 13.86 ERA and 2.674 WHIP after three starts. All three have been Mets' losses and they've been outscored in those games by a combined score of 30-4! Even worse is that two of the games came against Cincinnati and San Diego, who are the "other" last place teams in the NL. So there's hope for Miami here, especially if their starter Elieser Hernandez pitches the way he did in his big league debut last Wednesday. There, he gave up just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits in 5 IP and the team beat the Dodgers as +180 ML dogs. Don't forget that the Mets rank only 26th in MLB in runs per game. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): You've got to give a lot of credit to the Mariners in this series as they easily could have rolled over like dogs in the wake of the Robinson Cano suspension. Instead though, they've roared like lions and are now in a position to take three of four from the visiting Tigers. After the teams exchanged one-run victories in the first two games of this series, Seattle won easily last night, 7-2, behind another strong effort from starter James Paxton, who threw a three-hit complete game. Detroit has now lost 9 of its last 10 games at Safeco Field and tonight must deal with another hot Seattle starter, that being Wade LeBlanc. Look for the M's to make it three in a row here. 

LeBlanc has a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP after three starts and has been outstanding in all of them. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings of work (on a solo homer) and has a 10-1 KW ratio. He's allowed just 10 hits. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings against Minnesota in his longest - and strongest - effort to date. Whether or not he can maintain this over a full season - he's 33 and been designated for assignment seven times in his career - remains to be seen. But I'm confident that he should keep rolling against these Tigers, who I'll remind you are just 79-106 on the road the L3 seasons. Detroit has also scored just nine runs total in this series. 

The Tigers counter here w/ Francisco Liriano, who is off his roughest outing of the season to date. He allowed five runs - and gave up two home runs - in just 4 2/3 IP against Cleveland. Fortunately for him though, he was bailed out late and the team won 9-8. Liriano had certainly pitched well before that, but he also hasn't made it past the fifth inning in B2B starts. I just don't like his - nor his team's chances Sunday against a Seattle team that is a "sneaky good" 26-19 this year, just 2.5 games back of the division leading Astros! 8* Seattle

10* Under D'backs/Mets (1:05 ET): For the 1st time in a month, the Mets have won B2B games. I was on them Friday as they prevailed 3-1 behind a strong effort from starter Jacob deGrom, who achieved a career high 13 strikeouts. The team then won a very foggy game yday, 5-4, after rallying for three runs in the final two frames. As I wrote in my analysis for Friday's opener, neither club came into this series playing well. The Mets' 11-1 start is a "thing of the past" as they'd go onto drop 19 of their next 28 under 1st year manager Mickey Callahan. Arizona similarly got off to a red-hot start (21-8) and as a result has led the NL West "wire to wire" so far. But they too have "hit the skids," losing 9 out of the last 10 games. Neither team's offense has done much to impress me in this series - or beyond, for that matter - and I'm on the Under Sunday. 

Having Noah Syndergaard on the mound this afternoon should certainly give Mets' fans hope that they can pull off their first sweep since April 9-11 in Miami. Syndergaard checks in as a heavy favorite on the money line and for good reason, as he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his nine starts this season. Last time out, he allowed just two runs on five hits in what ended up being a very easy 12-2 win over Toronto. Syndergaard has a 2.89 ERA in three career starts vs. the D'backs and should flourish this time around as the entire Arizona offense is in a giant slump. Not once over the L10 games have the D'backs scored more than four runs. A strong effort from Syndergaard and the Mets here could lead to a situation where we avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which sometimes can be the difference between winning and losing an Under bet.

It's a familiar name pitching for Arizona today, though not one we've seen in 2018, let alone in a D'backs' uniform. Clay Buchholz will toe the rubber for the 1st time since April of last year when his opponent was - ironically - these same Mets. Buchholz, then a member of the Phillies, did not fare well that day as he allowed six runs in just 2 2/3 IP. A torn flexor tendon in his right arm ended last season, but now he's back and ready to show he still belongs in a big-league rotation. Facing the Mets anemic offense should be an ideal spot as this is a team that had scored three runs or fewer in 8 of 10 games going into yday. The Mets are tied for 27th in all of MLB in runs scored. 10* Under D'backs/Mets

8* LA Angels (9:05 ET): Well, the Halos haven't treated me well the last two days, but I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm." Certainly, their woeful 11-16 mark at home has to improve, right? They've dropped four in a row here in Anaheim, the first two to Houston and the last two to Tampa Bay. Last night's 8-3 setback dropped LA to third in the AL West, one half game below Seattle (who just lost Robinson Cano). But here is the spot where they get back on track as they'll get a chance to face spot starter Sergio Romo (1st career big league start), who is a career reliever. The Rays have won five straight, but three of those were against the Royals. I can't see this stretch of winning on the road continuing for them. 

The last time the Angels won, Andrew Heaney was on the mound. He'll get the call again tonight, hoping for a repeat of that last performance when he held Houston to one run on four hits over eight innings. He also finished w/ 10 K's. He's gone four straight starts w/o allowing a HR and has allowed just six runs (five earned) over that same stretch, which has lasted 25 IP. A big key for the Rays in this series (so far) has been the long ball. They came to Anaheim having hit only 37 home runs in 41 games, which was 13th in the American League. They have hit six over the L2 games. Expect regression in this department. 

Mike Trout stepped up to the plate in the eighth inning last night on a career worst 0 for 21 slump. He hit a home run in that final at-bat, and you have to think it's just a matter of time before he starts performing at his usual MVP level. Though Romo is starting here only b/c of the Angels' right-handed heavy lineup, he's someone I can see Trout taking full advantage of facing. This current four-game slide is tied for the longest of the entire Angels' season. I said it before and I'll say it again. Why they are 3-9 vs. the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros (three top teams in the AL), they entered this series 22-9 against everyone else. 8* LA Angels 

8* Under Orioles/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Baltimore finally beat Boston yday, doing so 7-4 at +175 on the money line. Previously, they had gone 0-4 against their AL East rival this season, getting outscored 26-9 in the process. As you likely know, this has not been a good season for the O's. Even w/ the win yday, they are just 14-30 overall, including a somewhat disastrous 4-17 on the road (outscored by 2.5 runs per game!). So perhaps "tread lightly" w/ the dog here. Where I'll step in though is w/ the Under as I like the number here quite a bit (9 is a key number in betting baseball totals), plus if Boston takes care of business here (as a large favorite), there's a decent chance we'll avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, always a help for Under bettors.

Now Unders have been nowhere to speak of over Dylan Bundy's last three outings. Tonight's starter for Baltimore has seen the winning team score no fewer than 10 runs in any of his L3 games. Only one of those was a win, that being his last time out, 17-1 over Tampa Bay. There, Bundy tossed seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball, arguably his most impressive performance of '18 to date. It was certainly an improvement on the disasters that were his previous three starts, which saw him allow a combined 22 runs in just 9 IP. But note that prior to that stretch, Bundy had allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his first four starts. 

I think it would be "foolhardy" for Bundy to expect the same kind of run support here that he got his last time out. I say that knowing full well that the Orioles lineup ranks 29th in MLB in on base percentage. They also entered yday averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. They were also batting just .218 against right-handed starters and averaging only 3.5 rpg. Tonight, they face Rick Porcello, who checks in w/ a sterling 0.857 WHIP in his four Fenway starts. That's even after he allowed five runs his last time out against Oakland. Porcello, like Bundy, started the season strong by allowing 3 ER or fewer in each of his first five starts, all Boston wins. Bundy, like Porcello, has pitched well here at Fenway in the past. He has a 3.18 ERA in seven career appearances. Last month, he gave up three runs here in 5 2/3 IP, but only one was earned. 8* Under Orioles/Red Sox

8* Run Line Detroit (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers at +1.5. This play is also a bit of an "about face" for me, though it's precisely the same situation I used (admittedly unsuccessfully) last night. That being, taking the losing pitcher in an "immediate revenge" situation as he's facing off against the same starter for a second consecutive outing. Here, we have Detroit's Michael Fulmer squaring off against Seattle's Felix Hernandez. King Felix and the M's got the best of Fulmer and the Tigers last Saturday, but I'm not quite sure that'll happen again as in yday's analysis, I did point out the myriad of issues Seattle is facing right now. I'll say that Detroit does no worse than a one-run loss Friday night. 

Fulmer did not pitch well last Saturday as he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings (allowed only five hits, but also three walks). It was the second straight start he allowed more runs than hits. Control has obviously been somewhat of an issue for him, but the bottom line is that he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his eight starts this season. The Mariners lineup he faces this time around won't have Robinson Cano in it as he's been suspended for 80 games due to violating MLB's drug policy. That's a severe blow to a Seattle offense that could manage only two hits over the final six innings last night w/o either Cano or Nelson Cruz. It was the third time in four games that the M's were held to two runs or fewer and sixth straight game they were held to four or fewer.

The Tigers have actually won five of six now w/ the only loss coming via shutout in Cleveland Wednesday. They are actually only three games below .500 right now. Though they did lose to Hernandez last week, it's not as if they didn't get to him as they scored five times in five innings off him. Make no mistake about it; this is no longer the "King Felix of old," the former Cy Young winner that was once unbeatable here at Safeco Field. He has a 5.66 ERA and 1.419 WHIP for the season (nine starts), so he should feel fortunate to have a 6-3 team start record coming into tonight. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts as well. As a team, the Mariners are actually being outscored by a full run per game at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels failed to come through for me last night, instead getting blasted by the Rays, 7-1. The loss dropped them to 11-15 at home for the year, which is not something I thought I'd see. Don't blame starter Tyler Skaggs though; he held Tampa Bay to just one run on six hits over six innings while striking out seven. Though the Angels finished the game w/ just one run on three hits themselves, the real damage came once Skaggs was lifted as the Rays scored a total of six runs over the next two innings. I believe we'll see the home team bounce back tonight though as the pitching matchup is in their favor and Mike Trout is "due" to breakout.

Trout is currently on the longest hitless streak of his career, at 19 at-bats. He has seven walks during that time, but it's not as if the rest of the lineup is contributing as the Angels have scored a grand total of six runs in the last four games. But we should start to see that all change tonight going up against Tampa's Blake Snell, who allowed three home runs in what was a disastrous last start that ended up being a 17-1 loss to Baltimore. Snell wound up lasting only 3 1/3 IP and gave up five runs total. It was pretty easily his worst start of the season to date. The Rays haven't lost since, but remember that three of the four wins during the current streak came against the hideous Royals. 

Meanwhile, the Angels are coming off a series w/ the rival Astros, so this - theoretically - should be a drop in class where the offense gets going. Nine of the team's 19 losses this year have come to either the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox, easily the three best teams in the American League. Getting the starting nod tonight will be Nick Tropeano, who has a 1.019 WHIP his L3 starts despite being winless during that stretch. In his last three starts against teams not named "Houston" or "Boston," Tropeano has allowed only a total of three runs in 19 innings. This is just the third time so far this season that the Angels have lost three more games in a row. They should bounce back. 8* LA Angels

8* NY Mets (7:05 ET): Here's two teams that both got off to tremendous starts to the season, but only one (Arizona) remains in first place of its division and they happen to have dropped seven of their last eight, never topping more than four runs in any one game. The Mets started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have gone just 9-19 ever since, including an ugly 12-1 loss here at home to Toronto on Wednesday. (Both teams had Thursday off). The Mets are now only fourth in their own division (NL East), which is shaping up to be a lot tougher than Arizona's division (the NL West). But w/ Jacob deGrom starting tonight, I'm siding w/ New York in this one. 

Though deGrom pitched on Sunday, he should be very well rested here. That's because he is off the shortest outing of his career, one that lasted just one inning. Callahan pulled him due to throwing 45 pitches, the most deGrom has ever thrown in one inning in his career, which may have been short-sighted in retrospect. It's not as if deGrom was "roughed up" (though he did issue three walks) as he didn't allow any runs, extending a personal scoreless streak to 19 1/3 innings, which spans four starts. The last time deGrom allowed a run was 4.16 vs. Washington. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his eight starts and never more than four (more than three just one time). Tonight he goes against a struggling Arizona offense that has scored two runs or fewer in six of its past eight games. Furthermore, the D'backs have topped four runs only one time in May (15 games played). 

It's not as if the Mets are hitting the cover off the baseball either (though they did scored 12 runs in a win over Toronto on Tuesday). But the big difference here is that while the D'backs must deal w/ deGrom, the Mets only must deal w/ Zack Godley, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.754 WHIP on the road this season (4 starts). Godley has allowed 4 ER in B2B starts as well as three of his last four. He allowed three home runs his last time out. As a team, Arizona comes into this game batting only a collective .220 and they are now w/o CF A.J. Pollock, who will be out four to eight weeks w/ a broken left thumb. Look for the Mets to win tonight's series opener. 8* NY Mets 

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It's certainly been a trying week for the Mariners. It began w/ them thinking they might be w/o Robinson Cano for an extended period of time when the star second baseman fractured his hand on Sunday. But things then went from "bad to worse" as MLB stepped in and ensured Cano would be missing significant time. They announced Tuesday that he would be suspended 80 games for a positive drug test. This is a severe blow as Cano was the ONLY player in baseball to play in at least 150 games each of the last 11 seasons. His 1,783 games played since '07 were by far the most of any player during that time. If losing Cano wasn't enough, Nelson Cruz has also gone down after being hit by a pitch Tuesday. 

But through it all, the M's are still persevering. They did lose yday, 5-1 to the Rangers, but are still 24-18 for the year and just 2.5 games behind the Astros, if you can believe that. Though I don't like their chances of staying in the pennant hunt long-term, I do really like them tonight as they welcome in the Detroit Tigers for a four-game weekend set. These teams just met last week in the Motor City w/ the Tigers taking two of three. One of those games saw Detroit's Matt Boyd outduel Seattle's Marco Gonzales in a battle of southpaws. Considering Gonzales and the M's were -145 on the ML in that game, they would appear to be a real "bargain" here in the rematch. This is actually one of my favorite "handicapping spots" in MLB where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the first encounter. 

Gonzales has gone exactly six innings in four consecutive starts for the Tigers. The team won the first three before they simply couldn't support him enough against Boyd and the Tigers last Saturday. Giving up 10 hits certainly didn't help Gonzales's cause as that was a season-high. He's now allowed 4 ER in B2B starts, but ended April by allowing just five runs total in three starts, three of those unearned. Boyd, who grew up in Seattle (so this is a homecoming for him), has delivered five quality outings in seven tries this season. But he's still winless on the road and the team is only 7-13 in road games this year (not to mention 78-104 the L3 seasons). The Tigers had won four in a row, including two over Cleveland, before getting shutout yday. But all those games came at home. Gonzales and the Mariners get revenge tonight! 10* Seattle

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels are coming off a tough series w/ the division rival Astros (dropped two of three) where they simply could not put up enough runs (just five in three games) against the top pitching staff in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just went to Kansas City and swept the lowly Royals w/ relative ease. I look for a "reversal of fortune" here though as the Halos have to start performing better at home moving forward (just 11-14 so far) and the Rays aren't a club to be feared. Note that half (9) of Los Angeles' losses this season have been to either the Yankees, Red Sox or Astros (i.e. the top three teams in baseball). Against everyone else, they are an impressive 22-9 overall. I like them to win big in Thursday's series opener. 

Angels' starter Tyler Skaggs certainly deserves better than an 0-3 team start record his L3 starts. He did allow 2 HR's his last time out, but still sports a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over that three start stretch. He allowed just 2 ER in each of them (16 2/3 IP total) and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season (the exception coming against Boston). While the Angels have performed below par at home overall so far this season, they are 8-4 as ML favorites of -125 to -175, the range they find themselves in tonight. That speaks to the level of competition they've faced so far. The Rays are clearly not in the same class as the Red Sox or Yankees. Over the L3 seasons, LA is 42-24 in the aforementioned proce range. 

What Skaggs needs here is some run support and that he should get this evening as TB is allowing 5.5 rpg on the road this season. The Rays are even still allowing 6.6 rpg over the last seven contests even after sweeping the sorry Royals. That's largely owed to one disastrous game at Baltimore last weekend (17-1 loss), but still, this pitching staff will be a major drop in class for the Angels after facing Houston's trio of McCullers, Cole and Verlander. It will be a former All-Star they go up against here in Chris Archer, but he's a former All-Star in "name only" as he's no longer performing anywhere near that level. In nine starts this year, Archer has a 5.64 ERA and 1.405 WHIP and he just got hammered to the tune of six runs (allowed 3 HR's) his last time out, in Baltimore. That's the same number of runs Skaggs has allowed in his last four starts combined, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. Really like the home team to get back on track in this one. 8* LA Angels

8* Run Line LA Angels (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. It was a brutal loss for the home team last night, one where they lost "coming from ahead," giving up four runs in the final two frames. The end result was 5-3 in the Astros' favor. That did come on the heels of a 2-1 win in the series opener Monday, so they now stand at 3-2 head to head w/ their main rival in the AL West this year. It is a little surprising to see that the Halos have a losing home record this season (11-13), but if you also take away two sweeps that they suffered at the hands of the Yankees & Red Sox, then they're a very impressive 25-11 against everyone else. Houston is absolutely to be respected, but LA won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels had to face Gerrit Cole (who has been ridiculous so far this season) yday and almost were able to pull out a victory. They took an early 2-0 lead thanks to the new top of the order, which has Mike Trout in the leadoff spot, followed by Justin Upton. Trout drew a walk in the first inning and Upton followed it w/ a HR, so look for the new lineup to become the regular one. Tonight, they'll face Justin Verlander, who is actually winless in May despite continuing to lead the AL in ERA. The problem has obviously been lack of run support as he's gotten just ONE run in his last 20 innings of work. LA pitchers have done a very good job in this series at limiting Houston hitting, holding them to just two runs total in 15 IP. Though he's pitched well against them since coming to the Astros, Verlander still has a 5.15 career ERA here at Angel Stadium. 

Starting opposite Verlander will be Garrett Richards, who has opposed him many times before. He actually came out on the wrong end of a pair of pitcher's duels late last season, but he's still 5-4 w/ a 3.28 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Unlike Verlander, the Angels' offense has been supportive of Richards, scoring at least four runs in seven of his eight starts in 2018. He's also helped himself by allowing 3 ER or less in six of the last seven. He hasn't given up more than five hits in any of the last seven starts. As impressed as I am w/ the Astros this year (1st in MLB in run differential), I don't see them dominating here as they managed just one run in the first 15 innings of the series before rallying yday. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) 

10* Under Blue Jays/Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets started the season 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but the "honeymoon period" ended quickly as the club has gone just 9-17 ever since. However, yesterday was definitely a step in the right direction as they routed the Blue Jays 12-2 in the opener of a quick, two-game IL set. Noah Syndergaard absolutely did what he's "paid to do" by giving his team five solid innings w/ seven strikeouts (was working on nine days' rest). But it was the Mets' offense that was the real surprise, breaking out of a May-long slump w/ 12 runs despite both Yoenis Cespedes and Todd Frazier being out of the lineup. Syndergaard accounted for two of those runs batted in. My guess is we won't be seeing that "part of the equation" again and w/ Toronto forced to play under NL rules (no DH), Under is the call in this Wednesday afternoon affair. 

Before yday's barrage, the Mets had scored more than three runs in just two of their previous 11 games, three times being shutout. In eight of those 11 games, they'd been held to two runs or fewer. The team is now 25th in MLB in runs per game in addition to being bottom five in slugging. Hey, what do you expect? Callahan was brought in to "fix" the pitching staff, after all! Speaking of that pitching staff, it has done its best this month in spite of the lack of offense. They've allowed four runs or less in six of the past eight games, including four straight. Zack Wheeler gets the starting nod today, coming off a performance in which he limited Cincinnati to just one run over six innings and finished w/ 7 K's. The Blue Jays have never faced him before, so there's the "unfamiliarity factor." While Wheeler's numbers overall may not appear great, note that's largely a result of one poor outing, which came in the unfriendly environment (for pitchers, that is) of Coors Field.

Toronto's starting rotation has not had a solid run and the result is that - like the Mets - it's been a poor 25-game stretch for the team (just 9-16). J.A. Happ gets the call here and at least he'll be facing an NL lineup, so the no DH rule works both ways here for the Jays. Happ had allowed 3 ER or fewer in three consecutive outings prior to a rough one his last time out, which caused his ERA to jump over a full point. The key was him giving up a grand slam to Seattle's Kyle Seager. I'll call for Happ to bounce back here, but Toronto's problem is that an offense that ranks 5th in MLB in rpg at home is only 18th on the road. 10* Under Blue Jays/Mets 

6* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is a horrendous spot for the Mariners. Not only did they play three games over the weekend (doubleheader on Saturday), but they lost 2B Robinson Cano to a long-term injury (broken hand). Then, they had to head to Minnesota for a make-up game on Monday, which they somehow won 1-0 despite their reliever pitching through a bout of food poisoning. The game's only run came about in the eighth inning after a throwing error by Twins' 1B Logan Morrison. Meanwhile, Texas got a much needed off-day on Monday after being held to just three runs in three games by the Houston Astros. 

The Rangers' 2018 outlook is far from rosy at this point, but they should do no worse than a one-run loss here, given the circumstance. Yes, they struggled to score against the Astros, but that's the #1 pitching staff in baseball right now and they were 2:1 underdogs in every game. It's not like Seattle has some prolific offense as they average only 3.7 rpg at Safeco Field and could manage only the unearned run yday. Plus, they are w/o Cano. Oh, I should also mention that yday's game in Minnesota started an hour and a half late because of rain. Interestingly enough, Texas has been a better team on the road this season (9-10) than at home (7-16) and keep in mind that road record was even better before the visit to Houston. 

Mike Minor gets the start here for the Rangers. He is tied for the team lead in wins (3) even though his ERA and WHIP aren't exactly what you like to see. He did give up three home runs in his most recent start, but that number equaled what he'd allowed in his first six, so I don't think it's indicative of anything. Minor is also working here on extended rest. He has a 1.65 career ERA vs. Seattle, who counters w/ Mike Leake, who has started eight games this year and has a 5.72 ERA and 1.511 WHIP. Those numbers are worse than those of Minor, yet Leake somehow has a 5-3 team start record. Leake pitched well his last time out, but has yet to deliver B2B quality starts this season. So I think he's likely to have an off-night here and Texas will take advantage. 6* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Under Rockies/Padres (3:40 ET): Apparently, someone in MLB's scheduling department wanted these two NL West rivals to REALLY "get to know one another" by the end of May as today will be the 12th head to head meeting already this season! Colorado took yday's series opener by a score of 6-4, thanks to Gerardo Parra's three-run HR in the top of the sixth. From there, the Rockies coasted as no runs were scored in the final three frames (by either team). I happen to think this Colorado team is pretty fortunate to be 23-19 on the season as they've been outscored by 18 runs. But I'm not running to endorse San Diego either as by season's end, they'll almost certainly end up with one of the worst records in the entire National League. Therefore, let's look at the total for this Tuesday afternoon matchup. 

Colorado is a franchise that has, more or less, been defined by its home ballpark. The thin air of Coors Field routinely lends itself to high-scoring games and this year has been no different w/ Rockies pitching allowing a NL-high 5.8 runs per game at home. Strangely though, their offense hasn't been great at home, averaging only a middling 4.3 rpg. But those same bats have been even less prolific on the road (not a surprise), averaging just 3.8 rpg. But the big surprise is how well the team has pitched away from Coors this year. They're allowing just 3.5 rpg (top 5 in MLB!) w/ opponents batting a collective .213! Indicative of this home vs. road split is today's starter, German Marquez, who has a 10.34 ERA at home, but a 2.35 ERA on the road!

San Diego has never been a team to be feared at the plate as they routinely rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. This year is no different as they are 26th, not to mention also bottom five in team batting average, sluggling and OBP. However, if there is a saving grace for the Padres today it's the fact that the Rockies came into yday's ballgame batting just .215 on the road. That's a pretty good sign for SD starter Jordan Lyles, who pitched pretty well in his '18 debut, holding St. Louis to two runs (one unearned) in 5 IP last week. He also had six strikeouts against just one walk. The Under is 8-4 in Padres' day game so far this season and w/ this being a daytime affair, I look for that to favor the pitchers. 10* Under Rockies/Padres

9* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Tigers at +1.5. Few will give the home team a chance in this one. After all, they've now dropped 11 in a row to the division rival Indians. That includes a four-game sweep in the Motor City last month. Furthermore, they are facing Carlos Carrasco in the series opener. Carrasco has certainly had the Tigers' number through the year as his team start record against them is 8-0 the L8 times he's gone against them. That includes a CG victory in the aforementioned sweep that took place last month as he allowed just one run on three hits. However, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price - is too good of an opportunity to pass up, in my opinion. 

The Tigers were not a good team last year as they "led" the American League w/ 98 losses. This year, things aren't looking quite as bleak considering their record currently stands at 17-22 and they're only three games back of Cleveland despite getting swept. After splitting a doubleheader on Saturday, Detroit beat the Mariners on Sunday, 5-4, in walkoff fashion. They're now a very respectable 10-9 at home this year. While the everyday lineup has been ravaged by injuries (top four in batting order all out!), I see the home team doing no worse than a one run loss here. 

It helps having Michael Fiers on the mound. Monday's starter for the Tigers has pitched well against Cleveland in the past. It might not be as good as Carrasco has done against them, but Fiers is 2-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tribe. He did not face them in the series last month. Fiers is coming off a strong effort where he held Texas to just two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He was pulled after just 79 pitches, so he should be fresh here. As good as Carrasco has been vs. Detroit the L3 season, there is the matter of him having a 6.23 ERA and 1.385 WHIP his L3 starts. He did dominate his last time out, but that was in a National League park (no DH). Also, the Indians have been far from dominant this year. They did beat the lowly Royals yesterday, 11-2, but that win only served to get them a game above .500 and they remain a losing proposition at the betting window (-8.9 units). Especially on the road where they're only 7-10. 9* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* Arizona (8:05 ET): The D'backs have led the NL West wire to wire so far, but this series has NOT gone their way as they've managed all of three runs and lost all three games. They'll get a chance to avoid the sweep by beating the surging Nationals on ESPN Sunday night. The Nats have won 12 of 14, but have still been money losers at the betting window overall. Meanwhile, Arizona continues to be the most profitable team to bet on in the entire sport. That dichotomy speaks to the respective starts of the two ballclubs here and I simply don't think anyone would have anticipated a sweep, by Washington no less, as a likely result coming into this series. You just don't see home teams get swept in four game series very often, especially good ones like the D'backs. 

The good news for Arizona here is that they won't be facing Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg. Those two held the D'backs' bats in check to the tune of two runs and nine hits in over 13 IP. They also fanned 20. Now, on the mound tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson, who has a 0.827 WHIP in five starts himself. He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and hasn't given up ANY in his last two, a stretch of 12 1/3 IP. However, Hellickson has not found much success in his career against Arizona. He's winless in five career tries against them and that includes a no-decision last month where he allowed two solo home runs and the team ended up losing 4-3 in 11 innings. I'm just not sure I'm ready to fully buy into Hellickson just yet.

Arizona is one of two teams that allow fewer runs per game than Washington. At home, they are allowing just over 3.0 rpg w/ opponents batting just over .200! Starting tonight will be Zach Godley, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP at Chase Field. In four of seven starts this year, Godley has given up 2 ER or fewer, all three exceptions. He did win at Washington last month, opposite Stephen Strasburg, as a +150 ML dog. Note that this is the first series all season that the D'backs have lost and the current four-game skid is their longest of the season. They'll get the win tonight. 10* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (4:05 ET): The Dodgers likely qualify as the biggest early season disappointment in all of MLB (currently 16-23 and over -23.0 units), but the indignity of being swept at home by the Reds would probably qualify as a new nadir. They have a chance to avoid that fate, mind you, but must win Sunday here at Chavez Ravine. Now, there are signs of being unlucky (not just injuries) rather than simply "bad" for Dodger Blue. The team has actually outscored its opponents this year (by all of one run) despite being seven games below .500. They've lost six of seven overall, not just the three in a row here, but I'll call for them to avoid the sweep as I simply can't see that result taking place. 

Cincinnati, who is still a league-worst 13-27 overall, has won five in a row. That right there should tell you what an awful start to the season it has been. They were the first team to make a change at manager (Bryan Price fired very quickly), but Jim Riggleman has hardly made a difference. The Reds have still allowed the second most runs in the National League (only Miami has allowed more) even after holding the Dodgers to just six total in the three games here. The newly acquired Matt Harvey (yes, him) gave his team four innings of one-hit ball last night in the latest surprise victory. Today, it's Luis Castillo on the mound. He begat the current win streak w/ a pretty solid effort last Tuesday against the Mets. He retired the first 14 batters he saw, but then seemed to hit "a wall," leaving after 5 2/3 innings and allowing two runs. Consider that even after that effort, Castillo still has a 6.47 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight starts this season.

Rich Hill will get the nod for the Dodgers and he needs to be better than he has been lately. But, perhaps facing someone other than Arizona is all the help Hill needs. Hill has faced the D'backs in each of his last two starts and been rocked both times. He spent considerable time on the DL between those two starts, so it could also have been a case where he was rusty his last time out. In his first two starts of the season (both against the Giants), Hill allowed just three runs in a total of 10 IP. He is 4-2 w/ a 3.80 ERA lifetime vs. the Reds. Perhaps the simple fact that this is a day game will help the Dodgers. Cincy is just 3-12 in such affairs this season. 8* LA Dodgers 

6* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): Oakland came in and surprising the Yanks on Friday, taking the series opener, 10-5 as big ML underdogs. I do not see the same thing occurring today. This is the first time since April 8th-10th that the Yankees have dropped B2B games. Previously, they'd won eight straight and 20 of the last 23 games. The A's have never found much success here in the Bronx as yday marked their first double-digit run effort here since 2007. Perhaps it was somewhat ironic that it was former teammate Sonny Gray who they roughed up on Friday for four home runs. Oakland is now .500 for the season, but has been outscored by 11 runs. The Yankees are tied w/ rival Boston for the best record in baseball and have a +60 run differential. 

Oakland had not been scoring prior to yday's big win. In fact, they'd been held to three runs or fewer in eight of nine games, including two or fewer in five straight. They'd totaled only five runs in the previous series, which saw them get swept at home by Houston. They scored more runs yday then they had the previous five games combined! I believe the quick turnaround favors the home team (early start today), specifically starter Domingo German, who looked fantastic in his big league debut last week. While he received a no-decision, German did blank Cleveland for six innings, allowing no hits and striking out nine! He retired 18 of the first 20 hitters he saw (two walks) and was the 1st pitcher since 1893 (!) to throw six hitless innings while striking out at least nine!

The A's have actually beaten the Yankees five straight times dating back to last season. But four of those wins were in Oakland. Unlike the A's, the Bronx Bombers have had little issue swinging the bat this season as they came into the series averaging an impressive 6.5 rpg at home. Save for Aaron Judge, some of the bats are starting to slow down, but I suspect that changes today. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs is off his best start of '18, but it also came against the lowly Orioles. Triggs has also alternated bad and good starts over his last four outings. The Yankees are 10-3 in day games this season, outscoring opponents by nearly three full runs per game. One would have to go all the way back to last August to find the last time this team lost three in a row. They win big Saturday! 6* NY Yankees

8* St. Louis (10:15 ET): The Padres got one over on me last night as they beat the Nats 2-1, thus avoiding a sweep. However, my read on the club overall has not changed. This was a team that was outscored by 212 runs a season ago, easily the worst margin in all of MLB. Thus a case could be made that they were actually FORTUNATE to even win 71 games. I think they're a lock for last place in the NL West this season and the basement is where they currently reside w/ a 14-24 mark. Only fellow last place teams in the Senior Circuit, Miami and Cincinnati, have worse records and run differentials.

St. Louis had Wednesday off, which was well needed. They'd just been swept, at home, in a short two-game set by the Twins. Yet, the Redbirds remain in first place in the NL Central w/ a 20-14 mark. Dropping both games to Minnesota was as surprising as it was disappointing, especially considering how they were dominated (outscored 13-1 and managed only six hits). But I really like their chances to bounce back, not only tonight, but in this entire series, against a far lesser opponent.

It starts w/ Miles Mikolas being on the hill. He's unbeaten in six starts this year for the Cardinals (4-0) w/ a 2.70 ERA and a 0.975 WHIP. Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings agianst the Cubs. He's allowed just four runs total in his last four starts, which have spanned 28 innings total (gone seven innings each time). San Diego is a weak-hitting team (.226 BA), so I see Mikolas having little difficulty here. Also, it should be pointed out that going into yday's game, the Padres were being outscored by 1.7 rpg here at home! They send Jordan Lyles to the mound for the first time in 2018 tonight. Lyles, who has made 13 relief appearances this season, is only starting due to the ineffectiveness of Bryan Mitchell. Lyles has started before, but w/ little success. He's 0-3 all-time pitching at Petco Park (16 appearances) w/ a 4.91 ERA. He's also allowed eight runs and issued seven walks in 19 total IP this season. 8* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The Phillies have absolutely dominated this series, outscoring the Giants 26-5, and go for the sweep Thursday afternoon w/ Vincent Velasquez on the hill. They rolled to victory last night, 11-3, behind seven scoreless innings from starter Nick Pivetta. Carlos Santana supplied the offense w/ three hits and five RBIs as the Phils improved to 14-5 at Citizens Bank Park. What's really remarkable is that they are outscoring teams by well over two full runs per game here. Given how this series has gone so far, I'm calling for the Phillies to finish off the sweep.

From the Giants perspective, this has obviously been a terribly disappointing series. Not only the way they have been dominated, but also because they came in fresh off sweeping the previously red-hot Braves in Atlanta. They've scored just five runs total in the series and that's actually pretty par for the course for visiting teams in this ballpark. Phillies' pitching is holding opponents to a .216 batting average at home so far this season. That makes today a tall order for San Fran starter Ty Blach. While Blach has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last six starts, his strikeout numbers are unimpressive and his WHIP is still 1.378 for the season. The Giants' offense is barely averaging 3.0 rpg for the season on the road. 

Velasquez will try and keep the string of strong starting Phillies pitching efforts intact. So far this season, Velasquez has been rather feast or famine as he's allowed 1 ER three times, but 4+ ER three times as well. He's coming off one of his stronger efforts to date as he held Washington to just one hit over 5 IP (that one hit was a solo HR). Given how Philly has performed at home so far, the offense should be able to pick Velasquez up even if he's not that effective here today. The Phillies are averaging 5.5 rpg at home for the season. The team is 7-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and I'll call for them to win again in that price range. 10* Philadelphia

10* Washington (9:10 ET): Irregardless of what transpires between these teams on Tuesday night, I'm backing the Nationals at this price in Wednesday's finale. I had them in Monday's opener as well and a power-surge (no pun intended!) led them to an 8-5 victory at Petco Park. The Nats homered three times in the game, accounting for five runs, and that was more than enough for starter Stephen Strasburg, who allowed just three runs in seven workman-like innings. Though you look at where the Nats currently are in the NL East standings (4th) and can't help but be disappointed, note that the team heads into Tuesday having outscored its opposition by 26 runs so far. San Diego, who I have little regard for, is sitting in last place in the NL West w/ a run differential of -41.

Gio Gonzalez will make his eighth start of the season here for the Nationals and he's yet to permit more than three runs in any of them. Granted, he hasn't always gone deep into games, but last time out saw him toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball and that was more than enough as the team prevailed 7-3 over Philadelphia. Gonzalez has also allowed only one home run all season. I think he should find pitching in Petco Park to be quite friendly (as most starters do). Note the reason for that last start being cut short was that there was a 39-minute rain delay. He'd already thrown 89 pitches by that point, but 55 were for strikes. Gonzalez is top 10 in the National League in ERA (2.33) and should not have much trouble w/ a team batting only .229 on the season.

San Diego will counter here southpaw Joey Lucchesi. It's a tall order facing Bryce Harper and a Washington lineup that is averaging over five runs per game against left-handed starters. The Nats also average 5.6 rpg on the road, Tuesday pending. Lucchesi has actually pitched pretty well, but never beyond six innings. Last time out, his offense failed to score for him in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers. While he only allowed three runs in 5 IP, note he did give up two home runs. He's now allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. Note that the Padres are being outscored by 1.6 rpg at home heading into Tuesday. Look for Washington to win this series (possible sweep depending on what happens Tuesday). 10* Washington

10* Pittsburgh (8:10 ET): The Bucs will wrap up a nine-game road trip w/ what will be a short two-game visit to the Southside of Chicago. Thus far, the trip has not gone well. They're just 2-5, though they did win on Sunday, 9-0 over Milwaukee. Still 19-16 on the season however, I give them a substantial edge in this Interleague series ove the White Sox, who are really in a bad way right now. Most, myself included, figured the White Sox would be one of the worst teams in the American League this year. They haven't "disappointed," starting 9-23 and they've lost seven of their last eight. I'm going with the NL contigent here. 

Pirates' pitching has not been too bad so far, but don't tell that to Ivan Nova, who really struggled his last time out. He gave up eight runs - three unearned - on 11 hits in a 9-3 loss at Washington. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings. But prior to that, he'd been pitching well, most notably against another AL opponent. On 4.26, he tossed eight shutout innings vs. Detroit and that was on the heels of allowing just one run and five hits in 6 IP at Philadelphia. I expect him to bounce back from last week's rough outing as he's 4-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox. Though the Bucs aren't expected to be contenders this year, they do have two players - catcher Francisco Cervelli and CF Corey Dickerson (replaced Andrew McCutchen) - that lead their respective positions in WAR. The team has also gone 6-2 in Interleague play thus far. 

Chicago is 0-2 vs. the NL and quite frankly its difficult to find any situation the team thrives in, other than playing Kansas City. While they are 5-2 vs. the Royals in 2018, they are just 4-21 vs. everyone else! They're also 3-13 at home. Interleague play has not been kind to this club the last several seasons as they're just 15-27. Having Lucas Giolito on the bump tonight hardly inspires any confidence as he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in six starts and things appear to be going from bad to worse for him. Giolito allowed multiple home runs his last time out and his last home start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs to the Astros in just two innings. Incredibly, the White Sox are being outscored by 2.3 rpg at home for the season, which is as bad as it gets. The Pirates come in averaging 4.8 rpg and get the benefit of the DH added to their lineup. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Texas (8:05 ET): Statistically speaking, the Rangers are coming off two of the "odder" seasons in recent memory. Two years ago they managed to win the AL West w/ 95 wins. But they only outscored opponents by a paltry eight runs over the course of entire season! That was owed to a historically fortunate 36-14 record in one-run games. Last year, they dropped down to 78 wins, but their run differential was only -17. The key difference? They were a MLB-worst 13-24 in one-run games. I bring this up because last night saw the Rangers come back and win by exactly one-run, beating Detroit 7-6. That record in one-run games is destined to even out in year three. How they perform in other games is still up for debate, but I like them tonight in Arlington. 

Texas made the most of its seven hits last night, scoring seven times. A four-run sixth saw them collect four hits w/ two outs to tie the game at five apiece. Detroit quickly regained the advantage w/ an unearned run scored in the top half of the seventh, but then a Jurickson Profar triple wound up being the difference in the home half. That's just a brutal loss for the Tigers, who scored more than three runs for just the second time in nine games and still came up short. They've now dropped four of five on the current road trip, which started w/ them losing three of four to another last place team, Kansas City, over the weekend. Outside the Motor City, the team is being outscored by more than a full run per game. Only a handful of teams (four to be exact) have a worse run differential on the road this season.

Texas will send Mike Minor to the mound on Tuesday. He's been pretty solid in six starts this season, especially considering the competition. Five of his six starts have been against Boston, Toronto and Houston. Last time out, he delivered a quality start vs. the Red Sox, holding them to just three runs in six innings of work. The Rangers won that game, as +135 ML dogs, 11-5. Here at home, Minor has been pretty good as his ERA in four starts in 2.86. I certainly prefer him over counterpart Michael Fiers, who has not only allowed 4 HR's his last two starts, but has a 5.87 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three. Even more daunting is Fiers' career marks vs. the Rangers. He's 0-3 in five starts w/ an 8.90 ERA. Injuries and a flu bug are also affecting the Tigers' everyday lineup right now. Texas is due to start performing better at home and makes it two straight tonight. 8* Texas

8* Washington (10:15 ET): The Nationals rallied to beat the Phillies yday, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth to win 5-4. Kind of ironic that the final margin was one run as I had pointed out in my analysis for the game (had the Nats) that they had been quite unfortunate to go 2-8 in one-run games this season while (also 0-3 in extra innings) while Philadelphia had enjoyed a 6-2 mark in one-run games (4-1 in extra innings). Funny how those things work themselves out, no? Now the Nats head West to take on the lowly Padres, who did just win B2B games against the Dodgers over the weekend. But Washington has won eight of nine and allowed four runs or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games. This sure seems like a great price on Stephen Strasburg to me.

Washington got a strong effort off the mound from Max Scherzer yday afternoon as he fanned 15 batters in just 6 1/3 innings. All four runs the Nats allowed came after Scherzer exited. The bullpen remains an issue, but like Scherzer, I anticipate a strong start tonight from Strasburg. He has 28 K's his last three starts, which have spanned 20 1/3 IP. His team start record is only 3-4, but he still sports a 1.05 WHIP, which is top 10 among all NL starters. He's also second in IP and third in strikeouts. A native of San Diego, Strasburg has had little issue beating his former hometown team in the past. He's gone 6-2 lifetime vs. the Padres w/ a 2.94 ERA. Here at Petco Park, which is known to be friendly to pitchers, he has allowed just 6 ER in 19 IP (three starts). The Padres have hit just .176 against him in those games. Overall, they have faced Strasburg a total of 49 innings and struck out 66 times. 

Before winning both Saturday and Sunday, the Padres had been no-hit on Friday. They've won three straight only one time before this season. Sunday marked their 1st shutout of 2018 and they're only 7-13 L3 seasons off a shutout win. Here at home, they are still giving up 5.6 runs per game. Remember, the Dodgers series took place in Mexico City. It will be interesting to see how the team reacts to being stateside w/ no days off. Tyson Ross gets the baseball here and while he's generally been pretty sharp of late (especially when throwing his slider), I'm not sure I'd trust him to go "toe for toe" w/ Strasburg. San Diego is still a team that's been outscored by 38 runs this year while Washington has a run differential of +23 (despite being just a game over .500). I like the Nats big in this one. 8* Washington

6* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals had their six-game win streak snapped yday (lost 3-1 here to the Phillies), but you have to believe they'll get "right back on the horse" due to Max Scherzer being on the mound Sunday. One streak that did NOT end Saturday was the Nats allowing four runs or less. That's happened eight games in a row now as well as 14 of the last 15. The one exception, they gave up five runs. It's pretty hard to lose when you're giving up so few runs, but shockingly the Nats are only 8-7 during this stretch. Runs should again be at a premium Sunday w/ Scherzer being opposed by Jake Arrieta in a battle of former Cy Young award winners. But I believe it's the home team that comes out on top of this NL East rubber match.

Looking at the division as its currently stands now, four of the five NL East teams could be a factor in the pennant chase. (Miami being the obvious exception). The Nats are still only .500 even after winning six in a row, but they've fallen prey to some "bad luck" so far, namely a 2-8 record in one-run games and they're 0-3 in extra innings. Contrast that w/ the Phillies, who are 6-2 in one-run games and 4-1 in extra innings. Thus, the Nats actually have the better YTD run differential despite being two games worse. However, the Nats have had no problem winning when Scherzer takes the mound (6-1 TSR), doing so each of his L5 outings. In three home starts, Scherzer has a ridiculous 0.403 WHIP. He's also posted four double digit strikeout games thus far and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of the six starts overall. Bottom line is he'll hold up his "end of the bargain" here against a Phillies lineup averaging just 2.7 rpg its last seven contests. 

Arrieta had likewise been "rolling along" for Philly, that was until his last start when he was tagged for six runs in Miami of all places. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings. That snapped a string of three straight quality outings from the former Cub. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup that seemed to have turned a corner going into yday. The turnaround can be attributed to Bryce Harper now batting leadoff as he'd homered four times in four games before going 0 for 4 on Saturday. But this one boils down to the fact I simply like Scherzer more than Arrieta and why wouldn't I considering he's a) at home and b) dominated the Phillies in his career. April's NL Pitcher of the Month owns a 9-1 career mark versus this opponent, posting a 2.58 ERA and 108-19 KW rate in 14 starts (94 1/3 IP). Four Phillies hitters - Herrera, Hernandez, Franco and Santana - are a combined 23 for 129 against him. Meanwhile, Arrieta has a 5.49 career ERA vs. the Nationals in nine starts. 6* Washington

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): If there was ever a time that the Mets needed their "stopper," it would be right now, as they've dropped five in a row (all here at Citi Field) and trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies here. They send Noah Syndergaard to the bump on Sunday and he has a 5-2 team start record w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. Those aren't the most overwhelming numbers in the sport, but it's Syndergaard, who continues to deliver quality starts w/ a strong strikeout rate. Meanwhile, I'm still not buying Colorado or more specifically its starting pitching. Even after four straight wins to get to 19-15, the Rockies have still been outscored by 11 runs this year, a worse margin than the slumping Mets. As a team, they are batting just .213 on the road. 

That 11-1 start from the Mets is now a distant memory as the team has dropped 13 of 19, including the five straight, and here they look to avoid their first 0-6 homestand in six seasons. What has gone wrong? Well, for starters, the team simply isn't scoring. During the five game losing streak, they've been shutout three times (yday included) and scored a total of just nine runs. Seven of those nine came in a failed rally attempt Friday when, down 8-2, they put five runs on the board in the final two frames. They had no answers for Colorado's Chad Bettis on Saturday as he pitched seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball. A Rockies team never known for its pitching has now seen its starters produce a sparkling 1.61 ERA the L10 games, which includes six straight six-plus inning efforts. Yet, the staff ERA is still north of 4.00 (4.27), which ranks 12th in the NL. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ Coors Field, but I also don't think what we're seeing of late is sustainable.

The road is obviously where Rockies pitching has been at its best lately as they haven't even played a home game since 4.25. But that hasn't translated to today's starter Kyle Freeland, who is still winless in four road starts w/ a 5.57 ERA and 1.381 WHIP. I mentioned earlier that it's not just the Rockies pitching that gets severely affected by leaving the confines of Coors Field; it's the team's hitting as well. They are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road and have scored three times or fewer six times on this nine-game road trip (which ends today). So I fully anticipate Syndergaard holding up "his end of the bargain" here and provided the Mets can finally put some runs on the board, they'll snap this ugly losing skid. 6* NY Mets

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): It was a rude return home for the Braves Friday night as they lost to the Giants by a score of 9-4. Both teams came into this series playing their best baseball of the season w/ the Braves winning five straight and the Giants 8 of 11. I was surprised to see Atlanta fall given the way they so thoroughly dominated the Mets in the previous series, outscoring them 21 to 2 w/ a 41-15 edge in hits. In fact, the Braves had outscored the opposition 35-4 over the course of their five-game win streak. They gave up more than twice that number of runs last night, but I view that as a "temporary speedbump" and will look for them to bounce back tonight behind the undefeated Brandon McCarthy, who is 4-0 in his six starts w/ a 3.09 ERA. Go with the NL East leaders. 

I'm buying these Braves as legit. Whether or not they can sustain the current lead in the division remains to be seen, but right now they have the top run differential in the entire National League. Only three heavyweights from the American League - Houston, Boston and the Yankees - have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. The Braves have scored - by far - the most runs of any NL team and w/ the call up of Ronald Acuna, may have the best top of the order of any lineup in baseball. The team had gone 7-1 w/ Acuna in the lineup prior to losing last night. But he was 0 for 4 in the series opener. Another new face in the Braves' lineup is Jose Bautista. I suspect the offense is going to perform a lot better here than it did Friday night. The Braves are averaging 6.4 runs per game at home so far. 

McCarthy will hopefully give the home team a better start than Mike Foltynewicz did last night. As mentioned earlier, McCarthy has yet to drop a decision in 2018 (5-1 TSR) and he's given up 3 ER or less in all but one start. In three of his previous four trips to the mound, he's allowed exactly one run. I don't fear a Giants lineup that came into yday batting just .222 on the road and averaging 2.5 rpg. Their starter, Ty Blach, has improved since a disastrous first outing of the year. But, he often has been the victim of poor run support. After scoring nine runs in B2B games, I expect the Giants' offense to "cool off" substantially on Saturday night as I'll note the team has only one three-game win streak to its credit so far this season. 8* Atlanta 

8* Houston (9:40 ET): The lone Interleague matchup on the weekend slate pits the defending World Series Champion Astros against the team w/ the best record currently in the National League, Arizona. The D'backs play host (where they have gone 11-5), but as you tell from the money line, the oddsmakers don't like their chances in tonight's series opener. No do I. That has a lot to do w/ who is pitching for Houston, that being Gerrit Cole. Pirates fans have to be wondering where "this Cole" was during his tenure there as he's off to a fantastic start to his Astros' career. Through six starts, Cole has a 1.73 ERA and 0.792 ERA. That's what makes Houston such a prohibitive favorite tonight and note they are already 7-1 this season as a road fave of -175 or higher.

Now, it's not all "wine and roses" right now for the 'Stros as they just dropped three of four to the Yankees (at home) in a rematch of LY's ALCS. They got shutout twice and scored only seven runs in this series, five of those coming yday in a game they blew in the top of the ninth (gave up three runs and lost by one run). But this offense has actually been more prolific on the road (5.8 runs per game) and should thrive this weekend in hitter-friendly Chase Field despite the loss of the designated hitter. Tonight, they'll be facing Kris Medlen, who is making his first start of 2018. He is starting here in place of the injured Robbie Ray. The fact that Arizona has been able to keep it together despite so many injuries is impressive, but I'm not sure it is sustainable. This is a pretty brutal spot for them, coming off a series w/ the "rival" Dodgers (lost last two games). It is the first time in MLB history that a team has had to host BOTH World Series representatives from the previous year in consecutive series.

I expect Houston's offense to get going here and Cole should take care of the rest. The Astros have allowed the fewest number of runs in baseball, including only 2.3 per game on the road. Cole has been a big part of that as all six of his starts thus far have been quality ones and he has a 61-8 KW ratio in 41 2/3 IP. He is seventh in the NL in ERA as well as sixth in WHIP. He's familiar w/ Arizona and pitching in this park from his time spent in the Senior Circuit. Not sure how Medlen, who hasn't started a big league game since 2016 (Tommy John surgery) can match him. He was 0-3 w/ a 6.00 ERA in three starts at Triple A Reno this Spring. 8* Houston 

8* Run Line San Diego (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Padres +1.5. Now endorsements of this ballclub will be few and far between this season. But w/ the Dodgers coming off an emotional series w/ the rival D'backs, tonight sets up as an excellent "ambush" spot for the dog. Note the game and series takes place in Mexico City. After losing seven of eight to the D'backs to start the year, LA won each of the last two days, but they're still below .500 and seven games out of first place in the NL West. The only team below them is the Padres, but the Dodgers are closer to them than they are first place. I say that knowing full well that LA has outscored its opponents by 12 runs despite the losing record. But San Diego, who has revenge for a prior sweep, does no worse than a one-run loss here. All things considered, the +1.5 is a really cheap price.

It was in San Diego that the Padres got swept by the Dodgers. It happened roughly two weeks ago w/ the Dodgers coming in and outscoring them 30-10 over the three games. Similar to here, LA was coming off a series against Arizona. At the time, it seemed like a "get well" spot and it was, but in the big picture signaled no real turnaround. The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 the L14 games. Only the hapless Reds have dropped more units at the betting window this season. Injuries, particularly the season-ender to Corey Seager, have really decimated the everyday lineup here. San Diego, by the way, arrives in Mexico City after an off-day. That's a big advantage in my view. 

Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of prospects. Walker Buehler is the #1 rated prospect in the Dodgers' organization, as far as arms go, and gets the starting nod tonight. He's made two starts previous to tonight and gone five innings in both, allowing just two runs total (both last time out). Both resulted in wins for the team, but they were also against the Giants and Marlins, two bad teams. San Diego counters w/ their #7 rated pitching prospect, Joey Lucchesi. He's made six starts in 2018 and has a 2.78 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. The team has won three of his last four times out and there's been only one time all year where he gave up more than three runs (loss at Arizona). All things considered, the +1.5 is a nice luxury to have and is a strong value at the "going rate." 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5)

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It has been a pretty dreadful stretch for the Twins, who have dropped 12 of the last 14 games. Last night was one of the more painful losses of the bunch as they fell in walk-off fashion, 6-5, after blowing an early 5-1 lead. It was Trayce Thompson winning the game w/ a HR in the ninth (w/ two outs) for the White Sox, but as we know this is a flawed team as well. With Jose Berrios pitching tonight for Minnesota, I have to think they get back into the win column. Yes, I'm on the record as saying 2018 would be a "regression year" in the Twin Cities, but Chicago also projects to be the worst team in the American League when all is said and done. Even w/ the Twins losing 12 of their last 14 games, they still have a better record than the White Sox. Go w/ the visitors here.

How could you not think Minnesota would regress in 2018? Last year, they were the biggest surprise in all of baseball. After losing 100+ games in 2016, they stunned everyone by making the AL Wild Card Game (which they lost to the Yankees) w/ 87 wins. So, it's only natural that they'd finish "somewhere in between" this season. Starter Berrios, however, is doing his best to counteract any regression. In six starts, he's posted a 3.63 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. His team start record is only 3-3 as he's off B2B subpar outings. In three of his six starts, Berrios has gone at least seven innings w/o allowing a run and given up three hits or fewer. One of those was a CG effort. His KW ratio in those three starts is 22-1 and the Twins are 3-0. However, he's also allowed four or more runs in the other three starts (all losses), failing to go even five innings in any of them. His KW ratio remained solid overall (42-5 first five starts) before turning in his worst effort of the year last time out (vs. Cincinnati), a zero strikeout performance w/ three walks. Berrios lasted only three innings in that one.

The good news for Berrios here is that he'll be facing the White Sox, a team he's dominated in the past. He's 4-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA in five career starts against them and that includes seven shutout innings back on April 12th (was a -200 favorite on the ML). That start also saw him post a season-high 11 strikeouts. Yesterday's win was only the third of the year for the White Sox (in 13 tries) here at Guaranteed Rate Field. They're being outscored by 2.2 rpg here at home. It's been a tough stretch for the Twins, but note four of their last 12 losses have come in the game's final at-bat. Their luck turns tonight behind what should be a quality effort from Berrios. I don't see White Sox starter Carson Fulmer being able to match him, even though he (Fulmer) is off B2B quality starts. Fulmer has allowed seven runs in just 3 IP lifetime vs. the Twins. 8* Minnesota

analysis soon

8* Over Pirates/Nationals (1:05 ET): The Nats' offense has finally shown up the last two days, a welcome occurrence given the club is still averaging only 3.7 rpg here in the Nation's Capital. They've scored a total of 21 runs the past two games and now have a chance to finish off a four-game sweep of the Pirates Thursday afternoon. Ironically, I cashed Washington in the first game of the series, which was a low-scoring affair (3-2 final). It was the team's stars leading the way last night as Bryce Harper started things w/ a home run (2nd in as many nights), the first of 14 Nationals' hits for the game. Stephen Strasburg took it from there, striking out 11 en route to a 9-3 victory. Look for more runs to be scored today - from both sides. I'm on the Over.

Washington pitching has allowed more than four runs just one time in the last 12 games. Theoretically, that should translate to more wins than losses, but the team's record is only 6-6 during that stretch and they'd dropped six of nine before this series got underway. This afternoon's starter Jeremy Hellickson is 3-1 w/ a 2.86 ERA in five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, who has hit just .187 off him. So you might be willing to wager he keeps the trend of four runs or less alive. Maybe he does, but note Hellickson has yet to really go deep into any start this season. In the three thus far in 2018, his longest outing is 5 1/3 innings. He also allowed two home runs in his last start. He'll also be facing a Pirates team that is 10-3 in day games so far, averaging an impressive 5.8 runs per game.

Hellickson will also be backed by a Washington offense now averaging 7.0 rpg the last seven days. So, even though Bucs' starter Trevor Williams has a 1.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in three road starts this year, I'm not so sure how successful he'll be either. Williams has yet to last more than six innings in any of his six starts overall this season and he's had some control issues as well. Twice, he's issued five walks and his strikeout numbers aren't all that impressive (KW ratio is 23-17). This will be his first time ever facing the Nationals. The Pirates had been winning (five in a row) and hitting coming into this series, but haven't been really able to get anything going offensively against Nats' pitching. But they've also had to face Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg the last two days. Hellickson shouldn't be quite as challenging and I look for enough runs to be scored here to send this one Over the total. 8* Over Pirates/Nationals

8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I won w/ the Angels last night and won't deviate from that script tonight. Most of what I wrote in yday's analysis still applies tonight as the Halos' uncharacteristic slow start to the season at home (now 6-10) can be attributed to an 0-6 record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Against everyone else in the league, their record is now 17-6 w/ a run differential of +40. They took last night's series opener by a score of 3-2 following a wild ninth inning where they first blew a two-run lead, only to win the game in walkoff fashion. While Baltimore treated me kindly this past weekend (including a 10* Game of the Week winner on Sunday), this is not a good team as they now have the second worst record and run differential in the sport. 

Besides the win, the other good news for the Angels on Tuesday was the return of Shohei Ohtani to the lineup. (It was his first time back in the everyday lineup since injuring his ankle against the Yankees on Friday). He doubled, marking the 11th time in 12 games as a DH that he got at least one hit. He'll DH again tonight as his next scheduled start (two-way player, remember!) isn't until the weekend. Taking the mound tonight will be Andrew Heaney, who hopes to give his team something similar to what Nick Tropeano delivered last night w/ seven scoreless innings. It hasn't exactly been a great start to 2018 for Heaney, but he did strike out nine batters in five innings of work vs. the Yankees last week (no decision). Having made only three starts so far, Heaney's YTD numbers are still skewed by the one poor outing he had against San Francisco. 

This is Baltimore's worst start to a season since 2010 when they were also 8-21. Before that, you'd have to go back to the infamous 0-21 start in 1988 to find a time when an Orioles team dug itself a bigger hole. I do not see them escaping this one quite frankly. They are 3-11 on the road and giving up over six runs per game and a .303 batting average. Dylan Bundy gets the baseball tonight and while he's arguably been the O's most consistent starter thus far, that's not really saying much. He has a 2-4 TSR and a 1.714 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he was shelled for eight runs in 4 2/3 innings. I realize that the Angels have not scored more than three runs in any of the L5 games, but I'm expecting an offensive "explosion" of sorts tonight as they certainly have the pieces in their lineup to do so. 8* LA Angels

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It was not a good weekend for the Angels as they were swept here at home by the red hot Yankees. They've dropped four in a row overall, the second time that's happened to them this season. Interestingly, each of those losing streaks saw them get swept at home by an AL East power (Red Sox the other time). But while they're 0-6 so far against the Red Sox and Yankees, the record against everyone else is a strong 16-6. That includes a pair of wins at Houston last week. Despite coming in on a losing streak, I don't envision the Halos having much difficulty defeating the lowly Orioles this week, tonight in particular. Baltimore is one of a number of American League teams that pretty soon will have to start thinking about 2019 and beyond. 

That said, the Orioles are coming off a successful weekend. They took two of three from the Tigers, which was their first winning series at home this season. That right there should tell you what kind of start to the season it's been for the O's. Now, I did have them in both wins over the Tigers, Sunday's being my 10* Game of the Week. But again, those games were contested at Camden Yards. The team's road record is just 3-10. They've also still been outscored by 54 runs overall, the second worst differential in the sport right now (Kansas City worse). That number figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Alex Cobb on the bump. Cobb, a former rival pitcher w/ the Rays, continues to do the O's no favors as he's off to a 0-3 start w/ a truly horrific ERA (13.11) and WHIP (2.828). He's allowed 20 runs on 30 hits in 11 2/3 IP! The team has been outscored 31-15 in his three starts. 

The Angels were outscored 17-5 by the Yankees over the weekend and are now just 5-10 at home for the year. But again, if not for an 0-6 record against the Red Sox and Yankees, things would look a lot better. Having to play w/o Shohei Ohtani isn't ideal, but it can easily be overcome here, given the weak opponent. Nick Tropeano will get the baseball instead, looking to shake off a couple of subpar showings. Tropeano missed much of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but did have a quality start against Baltimore. He dominated Kansas City earlier this year and I expect similar results against the Orioles team which is batting a collective .224 overall. 8* LA Angels

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Pirates have to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into this series as they just swept the Cardinals over the weekend. They've won five in a row overall and lead the NL Central w/ a record of 17-11. But the entirety of the current win streak took place at home. Now they have to hit the road and face the Nationals in the Nation's capital. The last time the Bucs hit the road, they were swept in Philadelphia. Washington comes into this series w/ surprising 4-9 home record and they're just 12-16 overall. They avoided a sweep on Sunday by beating the Diamondbacks, 3-1. Despite the losing record, the Nats have outscored the opposition this season (admittedly, by only three runs). I like them tonight in the series opener. 

Gio Gonzalez led the way Sunday afternoon w/ eight strikeouts in seven innings. The Nats will be hoping for something similar here from tonight's starter, Tanner Roark, who despite a 1-4 TSR has a 3.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Roark has a 0.895 WHIP, yet has nothing to show for it w/ the team going 0-3. He's allowed just 11 hits in 19 IP, yet been charged w/ eight runs. That's unlucky just like the team start record. One would have to think if Roark continues to pitch the way he has, that the wins will start coming. He has thrown eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball against Pittsburgh before, in this ballpark no less (back in 2016). Visting teams are batting just .194 so far here in D.C.. At the same time, I have to think the Nats' hitting will start to improve here at home as they're averaging just 3.2 runs per game here thus far. 

Pittsburgh also got a strong starting pitching performance yday, theirs coming from a rookie that was making his big-league debut. Nick Kingham retired the first 20 batters he saw, striking out nine in the process, en route to a 5-0 win over the Cards. If I'm a Pirates fan, I'd be less optimistic about Jameson Taillon tonight. Tallion got off to a good start in 2018, but has delivered B2B poor outings, including his last time out where he surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 IP. That followed up a 1 2/3 inning outing where he allowed five runs. Supporters will point to Taillon's B2B scoreless efforts before that, but note those came against the Reds and Marlins, the two worst teams the Senior Circuit has to offer. I was not high on the Bucs coming into the season while the Nats have been one of the NL's bigger disappointments thus far. I believe things begin to start "working themselves out" tonight. 10* Washington

10* Baltimore (1:05 ET): The Orioles returned to their losing ways on Saturday, falling 9-5. This on the heels of a 6-0 victory Friday that I was on. In my analysis for Friday's opener, I made mention that the O's came into this series w/ revenge as the Tigers had swept them (in Detroit) earlier in the month. The outlook is admittedly looking bleak for Baltimore in 2018, but I still have faith they can fight back and take this series. It's not as if the Tigers are any "great shakes" this season either. This game carries a lot of importance to the home team as it has a chance to mark the Orioles' first winning home series of the season! They send Kevin Gausman to the bump and after a rocky first outing, he's been much better of late. Go w/ Baltimore, who has been the bettors choice throughout this three-game set. 

In his 1st start of the year, Gausman was tagged for six runs in a loss to Minnesota. Since then, he's been a lot better, posting a 3.24 ERA in four starts. Last time out, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits. The team still lost mind you, but that was to a good Cleveland team (2-1). That makes it three straight quality starts for Gausman, two of them the team has failed to take advantage of. Coincidentially, one of them came against these Tigers as he went six innings and allowed just two runs (both on solo HR's). Baltimore lost that game 6-5 despite scoring four times in the final two innings. A three-run eighth temporarily gave them a 4-2 lead, only for the bullpen to give it right back. The O's then tied the game back up at 5-5 w/ a run in the top of the ninth, only to lose on a Dixon Machado walk-off HR. It's been "that kind of season" in Baltimore, quite frankly.

The Tigers' offense came into yesterday's game on a 22-inning scoreless streak, having been shutout in B2B games. They were able to jump out to a 7-0 lead though and that proved to be more than enough despite the Orioles' late attempt at a rally. Baltimore's offense has scored 16 runs total the L3 games. Tonight, they'll face Daniel Norris, who has made only one start in 2018 for the Tigers and it came against the sorry Royals. Sadly for Norris, he was not successful as the team lost 3-2. He only allowed one run on three hits, but he lasted only 4 2/3 innings and had three walks as well. Norris has worked out of the bullpen this season (four additional appearances), including in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader vs. the Pirates. There he allowed one run and two hits in 2 IP. At the end of the day, I have to think Baltimore takes this one as they're due to start playing a little better, at least at home. 10* Baltimore

8* Toronto (4:07 ET): The Rangers came North of the Border and surprised the Blue Jays yday, winning 6-4 as +135 underdogs on the money line. Will they do it again? Not likely. The last two seasons have been quite interesting to evaluate in Arlington. In 2016, the team won the AL West w/ 95 wins, but only outscored its opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! That disparity was owed to the best record EVER (in MLB history!) in one-run games as they went 36-11. Last year, they predictably dipped to 78 wins and were just 13-24 in one-run game (worst mark in MLB!). Obviously, you'd expect the record in one-run games to be somewhere in the middle for 2018 (currently 1-2), but the overall outlook is not particularly rosy for a team that is in last place w/ a -37 run differential despite B2B wins. Third place in the division is probably this team's "ceiling" and even that might be generous. 

As for Toronto, a bounce back season was to be expected this year. They got off to a 14-8 start, but have now dropped three in a row following yday's result. They've dropped six of eight overall w/ the other losses coming to the Red Sox and Yankees. With those two in the same division, Toronto's ceiling is probably also third place this year, but a Wild Card is a real possibility for a team that has still outscored opponents by 25 runs. This is their longest losing streak to date in '18 and I see them bouncing back this afternoon against what is pretty clearly an inferior foe. After going a MLB-worst 5-14 in extra inning games LY, you'd think the Blue Jays would be afforded some better luck this year. 

The ageless Bartolo Colon finally had a bad start for the Rangers his last time out. After allowing only one run in B2B starts, including a stunning one-hit effort (for 7 2/3 innings) at Houston, Colon came back down to Earth exactly seven days ago when he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP to Seattle. Texas lost the game 9-7, though I'll concede that was more the bullpen's fault. The Rangers' bullpen has been surprisingly good on the road thus far, but I don't see that continuing. Toronto counters w/ Jaime Garcia, who should give them a better effort here than Marcus Stroman did yday. Garcia already pitched against the Rangers once this year and beat Cole Hamels. He's backed by a Toronto offense that is still averaging 6.0 rpg at home and should have scored more yday, given all the problems in the field Texas had. But the Blue Jays' own baserunning gaffes cost them. Today should be a more "normal" affair w/ the home team winning. 8* Toronto

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Many (not me) were high on Milwaukee coming into this season due to a bevy of offseason activity. But I view them as pretty clearly the third best team in their division (NL Central) even though they're off to a 16-11 start and have spent a good deal of time in first place. One thing is for certain and that's the Brew Crew are having problems w/ the Cubs, whom they are now just 1-5 against this season after taking two one-run losses to start this series. Normally, that might make me more "sympathetic" to the Brewers' cause, but consider they had a record propped up by a 6-2 mark in one-run games before coming to Wrigley Field this weekend. I was on the Cubs in the series opener Thursday (won 1-0) and will go back to them today as they look to make it three in a row in the Freindly Confines. 

While 5-1 against the Brewers and 8-9 vs. everyone else, the Cubs own a +30 run differential for the season. That's three times the number Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by (+10) despite the Brewers having the better overall record. To me, scoring differential has always been a better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. The Brew Crew are having a really tough time scoring against the Cubs this season as they've already been shutout THREE times by them. In the six head to head matchups, they've managed only nine runs total and five of those came in the lone victory. For the Cubs, it's been nice to win w/o having to score a lot of runs. Prior to this series beginning, they'd gone just 6-5 their last 11 games. In the six wins, they never scored fewer than eight runs. In the five losses, they never scored more than three. 

Both of Saturday's starting pitchers have been successful each of the L3 starts. However. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra has a far better ERA and WHIP than the Cubs' Jose Quintana. Why side w/ Chicago, then? Well, for starters (pun intended!), Quintana already shut this Brewers offense down once this season, holding them scoreless for six innings back on April 8th. He allowed only three hits and that was one of the three times Milwaukee failed to score against the Cubs in 2018. Quintana has since been shaky his L2 starts, but we'll excuse him as one (vs. Atlanta) came in a torrential downpour w/ very cold temperatures while the other was in Colorado (high altitude). Guerra has yet to go a full six innings in any start this year and two of his three starts came against Miami and Cincinnati (two worst teams in the National League). Oh, by the way, Quintana has a 0.75 ERA in five career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): In this weekend battle of miserable teams, the White Sox took the series opener by a score of 6-3 on Thursday. For tonight's rematch, we've got one "heck" of a pitching matchup with Reynaldo Lopez starting for Chicago and Danny Duffy going for Kansas City. The two pitchers have combined for an 0-9 team start record thus far (Lopez 0-4, Duffy 0-5), so something is going to have to give here. It's going to take a lot for me to endorse KC in 2018 (won't happen much!), but at the same time going against the White Sox at this price seems very reasonable. Following a win, Chicago is only 1-4 this season.

The White Sox have won only six games this season. Three of those wins have come against the Royals. They actually opened the season by taking B2B games from KC here at Kauffman Stadium. Going into yday, they'd lost 16 of 19 games since and were 0-4 off a win. (So, yes, the 2-0 start is the only time all season they've won B2B games). I don't see history repeating itself here, however. Last night saw KC actually outhit Chicago, 11-9, but the Southsiders made their hits count as every run scored came via a home run. There were five total HR's hit, four solo shots. That's just bad luck if you're a Royals fan. Now Duffy did allow three longballs in a somewhat disastrous start vs. Chicago to open the year. But he's allowed only one since and had gotten a lot better, that was until his most recent start, which came on the road (at Detroit). Prior to that, Duffy had allowed 3 ER or less in three consecutive outings. 

Lopez actually deserves far better than an 0-4 TSR. The White Sox starter has allowed just four runs total this year in 24 IP. However, he does have control issues w/ 13 walks the L3 starts. Last time out, he had twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2), which is never a good sign. Incredibly, the offense has scored just four times in the four starts he's made. Something to note here is that Chicago will be w/o its manager Rick Renteria due to the passing of his mother. The Royals are just 1-10 at home this season and while that's not encouraging, the record can only get better. I'm on Kansas City tonight. 10* Kansas City

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Its the other of the two games in this package where the team I'm taking has revenge for a prior sweep. In the case of the Rays, they are actually 1-6 head to head w/ Boston so far this season, having beaten them on Opening Day, but then losing six in a row. That includes a three-game sweep in Fenway earlier this month. Now, a lot of teams have been losing to Boston in what has been a historically great start for them. Following that Opening Day loss to the Rays, the Red Sox would go onto win 17 of their next 18 games and they now stand at 19-5 following consecutive wins at Toronto. But Tampa Bay also comes into this series hot, having won six in a row. I'm confident in saying they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here as the RL is a solid price.

It also would appear that TB has the starting pitching edge tonight w/ Blake Snell taking the mound. Snell has a 2.54 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in five starts and he's been particularly strong in the last three where his ERA and WHIP are 1.40 and 0.828 respectively. During that stretch, he's three runs in 19 1/3 IP (allowed 1 run in every start) on just 10 hits and has a 25-5 KW ratio (all five walks came in one start, but he doesn't have any the last two). The Rays have also won all three games. Really, he has only one bad start and it came at Yankee Stadium. The other four, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER every time. He was a hard luck loser to Boston in his 1st start of '18 as he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings of three-hit ball only for the team to fall 1-0 at home. Dating back to last seaosn, Snell is now 8-2 w/ a 2.74 ERA his L15 starts. 

In this historic start of theirs, Boston has had some good fortune, namely a MLB-best 7-1 record in one-run games. No one else is even close to that. All three games in the previous series (vs. Toronto) were decided by one run. So calling for a one-run game here is not w/o precedent and either way it would be a win for us. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see the streaking Rays "steal one" here either, not just b/c of the revenge angle, but also b/c they are facing Drew Pomeranz, who simply was not very good in his first outing. It took place exactly one week ago and while the Red Sox won, Pomeranz allowed three runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Here, he'll be facing a Rays lineup that has scored 46 runs during its win streak, including eight or more in each of the last five games. Again, no worse than a one-run loss for the revenge-minded Rays here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): This is the first of two plays today where I'll be taking the team that is looking to avenge a prior sweep. It was just a little over a week ago that the Tigers swept the Orioles in a three-game set in the Motor City. But they've since gone just 3-4 over the last seven games. Their last series was played under NL rules vs. Pittsburgh. Now Baltimore is not a good team and its outlook appears to be quite bleak for 2018. They've started 6-19 and have dropped five in a row. Chris Tillman gets the starting nod tonight and he's 0-4 in four starts w/ a 9.87 ERA and 2.366 WHIP. But I'm a firm believer in this revenge angle and this is the rare spot that the O's should handle. 

Thanks to the current losing streak, Baltimore has passed both Miami and Cincinnati for the worst run differential in all of MLB. So I concede that this price may not represent the best value, especially w/ Tillman pitching. Now having already faced the likes of Boston, the Yankees, Cleveland and Houston this year (inarguably the top four teams in the American League), it should come as no surprise to see the Orioles floundering. That said, they did just drop two games here at home to the Rays (opener was rained out). Tonight may be "it" for Tillman, if he doesn't pitch well, but the good news is that he's 6-1 all-time vs. Detroit w/ a 3.12 ERA. Also, the Tigers don't hit as well on the road (.237 BA). I know it was under NL rules, meaning the pitcher had to bat, but they were shutout yday in Pittsburgh thanks to going 0 for 9 w/ RISP. It was already the third time this season that the Tigers have been shutout (two of those on the road).

With the AL Central projected to be very weak this season, I thought there was a chance Detroit would bounce back a bit after losing 98 games in 2017 (had AL's worst run differential as well). They certainly should be better than the Royals and White Sox. Right now, the Tigers are in second place in the division, but only 10-13 overall. They're also - curiously - only 1-8 in night games. Starting tonight will be Michael Fiers, who is off to a reasonably good start, but that's pretty much owed to his first start when he got to face the White Sox. Last time out, he was fortunate to surrender only four runs (just two earned) as he allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 IP. He also finished w/ ZERO strikeouts. His start before that saw him hammered to the tune of six runs in 5 2/3 IP. If only for a night, I see Tillman and the Orioles turning things around here. 8* Baltimore

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): These teams met earlier this month in Milwaukee w/ the Cubs taking three of four. The Brew Crew enter this second season series (at Wrigley) red hot as they've won eight in a row. But that win streak comes w/ a caveat as it's been built up at the expense of three of the very worst teams in baseball: the Reds, Marlins and Royals. Those three teams own a combined 17-53 record right now, so this is definitely a step up in class for Milwaukee. The Brewers might be 16-9 overall, but they've only outscored opponents by a 12-run margin this year and that run differential was firmly "in the red" (-19) before the current win streak began. The 11-10 Cubs actually own a significantly better run differential (+28) compared to the Brewers.

Like Milwaukee, the Cubs are coming off an Interleague series that was played on the road, meaning it's back to NL rules tonight. The Cubs split w/ the Indians on Tuesday/Wednesday in what was a rematch from a great 2016 World Series. Offensively, the Cubbies continue to be "feast or famine" as they've scored eight or more runs in five of the last eight games. All five times, they won. In the three losses, they've scored a total of six runs, including just one on five hits last night. Though Brewers' starter Chase Anderson has a 4-1 TSR along w/ some solid numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.048 WHIP), I see a pitcher that has already allowed six home runs this season. The Cubs were the ones that handed Anderson his only loss to date, beating him 3-0 back on April 8th. 

The Cubs are also 7-2 this year off a loss, so that speaks to a bounce back effort at the plate tonight. So does a return home where they are averaging a lofty 6.3 runs per game so far. The offense is both top five in slugging percentage and OBP. As for starting pitching, tonight Joe Maddon will give the baseball to Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 3 ER or fewer in three of his previous four outings. Last time out, which was at Colorado (always a difficult place to pitch), Hendricks posted his best KW rate of the season at 6-0. A big key here for Hendricks is that he won't have to deal w/ Brewers 1B Eric Thames, who is out w/ a UCL tear in his thumb. Hendricks has pitched well in this past vs. Milwaukee, turning in a 3.01 ERA in 16 starts. While the Brewers have lost a key bat from their lineup, the Cubs may be getting Kris Bryant back here. Were it not for disparate records in one-run games (Brewers 6-2, Cubs 0-3), the NL Central standings would look much different coming into this game. The Cubs are the better team and I'll call for them to end Milwaukee's win streak. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The surprising Phillies squared this series up at one game apiece, beating Zack Greinke 5-3 last night. While Arizona has led the NL West virtually the entire way so far in 2018 (they're now 16-7 w/ a +33 run differential), Philly is right there w/ them at 15-8 and having a +31 run differential (even though they're not in 1st place in the NL East). This afternoon sees the two teams wrapping up this three-game set and I'm going with the undervalued Phils in this situation as they've already beaten the D'backs' top pitcher (Greinke), so I see them having little difficulty w/ Matt Koch, despite what the right-hander may have done in his 1st and only start of the season. The Phillies are now 10-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 rpg. 

The Phillies have won 14 of their last 18 games overall and last night saw them overcome more poor fielding to get the 'W.' They made three errors last night, upping their YTD total to 22 in 23 games, yet that shockingly has not hurt them. After a shaky fourth inning last night, Jake Arrieta settled down and allowed little else in his seven innings of work. The D'backs managed only five hits for the game, so I like the chances for tonight's starter Blake Lively, who already has a 3-1 team start record this season. Lively is coming off his best outing of the season so far as he allowed just one run on five hits last Friday vs. Pittsburgh. As alluded to earlier, the Phillies have been dominant here at Citizens Bank Park w/ the opposition averaging just 2.6 rpg while batting a collective .201. At the same time, the Phillies offense is averaging 6.0 runs per game! 

Given Arizona couldn't overcome all of Philly's mistakes in the field last night, it's difficult envisioning them winning here, presuming a cleaner effort by the home team. Starter Matt Koch looked good in his 2018 season debut last Friday, but keep in mind that was against lowly San Diego. Now the D'backs have won all seven series so far this season and are a perfect 6-0 off a loss, streaks that are on the line today/ But this is as tough a spot as they've faced to date as Philly is a dominant home team and we really don't know how trustworthy Koch really is. He's only in the D'backs rotation b/c of the season-ending injury to Taijuan Walker. Today marks just his fourth big-league start. 10* Philadelphia

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Following a historic 17-2 start (w/ one of the losses taking place Opening Day!), all of a sudden the Red Sox have dropped three in a row. They've scored just four runs total in losing to the A's twice (were no-hit in one of the games) and then here in Toronto last night. They've also struck out a total of 34 times. But I'll call for them to get back on track Wednesday. Over the previous three seasons, Boston is 14-5 when entering a game on a losing streak of three or more games and let's not forget the Blue Jays weren't exactly playing well coming into this series either. They'd dropped three of four in New York and while they won last night in spite of giving up two runs in the top of the ninth, they did so on a walk-off HR (in the 10th) and were held to only five hits. 

Before Curtis Granderson's walk-off, the Blue Jays had done all of their scoring in the second inning last night. They put three on the board in that frame, but from there could manage little else. The big play was an infield single that scored two runners, something you rarely see happen. The Blue Jays were retired in order in six of the game's first eight innings. This is an offense that has gone five straight games w/o collecting 10 hits and in the previous three, they've managed just 13 total. Tonight, they'll face the unbeaten Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 3-0 team start record. The southpaw Rodriguez is off B2B quality outings, holding the Orioles and Angels to only three runs total in 12 innings of work. Toronto seems fortunate to be averaging 5.6 runs in games where they face a left-handed starter as they are batting just .229 at the same time. 

Despite the three straight losses, Boston has still scored roughly twice as many runs as they have allowed and that puts them in a class all by themselves. Their run differential of +63 is the best in baseball w/ Houston (+55) the only other club north of +35. They had won seven straight here in Toronto prior to taking the loss last night. I believe the offense gets back on track tonight facing Anibal Sanchez, who has an 0-2 TSR at home thus far w/ a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP. The Red Sox are simply much better on the runs allowed side of the ledger than is Toronto and they deserve to be ML favorites in this spot North of the border. 10* Boston 

analysis soon