10* Under Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): This is the finale of a three-game series. Atlanta won the opener in relative “high-scoring” fashion, 9-5. Philadelphia countered yesterday with a 2-1 win on a Luke Williams walk-off HR. It was Williams’ 1st career HR and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Phillies as they’d been held scoreless for 8+ innings and had only four hits for the game. Now, instead of facing a potential sweep at the hands of the Braves, the home team can win the series on Thursday. They are 6-5 against Atlanta this year with four of the five games here in Philly having stayed Under. 

I like this game to stay Under as well. Phils starter Zack Wheeler is a big reason why. Wheeler is having an outstanding 2021 thus far with a 2.51 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 12 starts. You’d think he deserves a better team start record than 6-6. The issue has been that the Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in half of Wheeler’s starts this season. Still, you can count on him to hold up his end of the bargain. He has delivered six consecutive quality outings (1.65 ERA), meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. He has an amazing 59-6 KW ratio during that time. 

Atlanta faced Wheeler twice earlier this year. When they did so here at Citizens Bank Park, they did not score against him. In fact, they got just one hit in seven innings. The game ended up 4-0 in favor of the Phillies. The opener of this series is the only time in five games at Philly this season where the Braves have scored more than two runs. The Phillies have scored four runs or less in four of the five games. Ian Anderson is coming off B2B rough outings for Atlanta. However, five of the six starts previous to that were quality ones. 10* Under Braves/Phillies

10* Under Indians/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Cleveland may have won 10-1 yesterday, but this is a light-hitting American League team that loses the DH for this series. In other words, do not expect them to score 10 runs again tonight. Four of those 10 runs scored last night came in the top of the ninth when the game was out of hand. It marked the second time in three games the Tribe scored 10 runs after they had done so only once in the first 55 games of the year. This team is 28th in MLB in batting average and 29th in OBP. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis is in a terrible way right now as they’re on a six-game losing streak, their longest in four years. During the six-game slide, they have scored a total of just 19 runs. Seven of those came in one inning and that was the only game during the losing streak they scored more than four times. The Cardinals had no answers at the plate last night against Shane Bieber (few do) and tonight they will face a rookie Jean Carlos Mejia, who has worked as a starter and out of the bullpen in 2021. In four total appearances, which have lasted eight innings, Mejia has yet to allow a single run. 

Adam Wainwright will try to stop the bleeding for his team. Like I said earlier, Cleveland is not a strong offensive club, so expect Wainwright to have a solid outing here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home where the Under is 6-1 so far this season. I actually successfully faded him in his last start, but he still delivered a quality outing.  He allowed three runs over seven innings. His previous three starts here at Busch Stadium all saw him go 8+ innings and allow two or fewer runs. This promises to be a low-scoring game Wednesday night and the number is already on the move. 10* Under Indians/Cardinals

9* Boston (7:10 ET): I “whiffed” on this matchup last night as the Over did NOT come through. It certainly looked good early on when the Astros put five runs on the board in the second inning. But with the game 7-1 after four innings (I needed only two more runs!), scoring came to a “screeching halt” as it was all “0’s” on the board the rest of the way. Boston going 0 for 9 with RISP certainly didn’t help matters. After all, this is a team that averages 5.0 runs per game at Fenway Park this season. 

Houston is a good team and I believe it’s only a matter of time before they eventually overtake Oakland in the AL West (just look at the respective run differentials!). I’ve got the Astros rated as a top six team in all of MLB right now, but the Red Sox aren’t far behind at #7. After getting beaten badly at home last night, I like Boston to bounce back here as the offense should definitely pick up against Jake Odorizzi, who has a 7.17 ERA in five starts for Houston. Odorizzi lasted only three innings against the Red Sox last week and he gave up three runs. That is Boston’s only win in five tries against the Astros in 2021. Odorizzi is 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA all-time at Fenway. 

One could argue the “schedule caught up” with the Red Sox yday as they were facing their third different opponent in as many days. But I look for starter Nathan Eovaldi (3-0, 1.20 ERA L3 starts) to even the odds tonight. Obviously, Martin Perez did NOT give the home team a quality outing on Tuesday. But Eovaldi did his last time out, at Yankee Stadium, and has the benefit of not having faced the Astros in the previous series between the teams. Perez had and that’s why I didn’t like his chances yesterday. Eovaldi hasn’t dropped a decision since 4/24. 9* Boston

7* Run Line Seattle (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play as I am backing the Mariners +1.5. Seattle hasn’t been successful against Detroit this year (they are 0-4 head to head), which is pretty sad considering the Tigers are just 21-35 against everyone else and are tied for the worst run differential in the American League. The Mariners aren’t very ahead of them in that regard (-55 RD compared to -56 for Detroit), but in this battle of bad teams I’m playing the “revenge card” with an additional 1.5 runs in my “back pocket.” 

Last night’s game saw the Tigers jump on Seattle starter Marco Gonzales early with a three-run first inning. From there, it was “smooth sailing” as they went on to win 5-3. The M’s had some chances, but were just 2 for 12 w/ RISP. They actually got more runners on base in the game than did the Tigers. I’m not going to try and make the case that Seattle is a quality ballclub, but I do think they’re better than the opponent here. The M’s actually hit better on the road than they do at home. 

Chris Flexen, who starts Wednesday for Seattle, was victimized by one bad inning his last time out. If not for that one bad inning, he’d be coming into tonight off B2B quality outings. He’s allowed 1 run or less in half of his 10 starts this season and the Tigers have yet to face him. Casey Mize, who starts today for the Tigers, did face the Mariners in the previous series. Including that previous start, Mize has been on a bit of a solid run, but I expect the M’s to do better at the plate the second time seeing him. Seattle has been involved in a lot of one-run games so far and that’s all we need here. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox (8:10 ET): We’ve got another matchup of top American League teams on Monday, though I think this particular series opener is going Under. Playing it’s “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY this season, Toronto is averaging an AL-high 5.6 runs per game there this season. But the road has been a bit of a different story as their scoring average drops to 4.4 rpg. They’ll be facing a very strong starter in Carlos Rodon on Monday. Even after his worst start to date (allowed 3 HRs vs. Cleveland), Rodon still has a 1.98 ERA and 0.823 WHIP here in 2021. 

Rodon has been especially dominant at Guaranteed Rate Field where his WHIP is a miniscule 0.562. That’s pretty filthy. What was so shocking about the poor performance against Cleveland on 5/31 is that Rodon had previously no-hit the Tribe. However, that no-hitter came here at home while the poor outing was on the road. Still, the bottom line here is that Rodon has allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his nine starts this season. The Under is 6-3 with him on the mound. Road teams average only 3.0 rpg here on the South Side (hitting only .204). 

The White Sox just took three of four from Detroit over the weekend and the Under hit in all three wins. They are favored again here. Toronto had a bit of a rough home series with Houston where they lost two of three. They turn to Robbie Ray on Monday, hoping he can replicate his last outing where he held Miami to one run over six innings. Ray has a 69-14 KW rate this season and also recently held a strong Tampa Bay offense to one run in seven innings. Chicago has gone Under the last six games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox

8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (7:05 ET): On paper, this looks to be a colossal mismatch with my #1 rated team in the power rankings (Dodgers) taking on the #30 team (Pirates). But as is evident by the fact they are only in third place in their own division, the Dodgers cannot necessarily always be trusted. What I do trust them to do tonight, however, is score some runs. They’ve put up an average of 6.3 over their L7 games (despite hitting only .206!) and the Over is 6-1 the last 7 times Tuesday starter Walker Buehler has been on the mound. 

Pittsburgh saw a rare three-game win streak end Sunday when they lost 3-1 to the Marlins. It figured to be a long year in the Steel City and the Pirates are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They’ve got the worst run differential in baseball (-75) and predictably find themselves in the basement in the NL Central. While they are scoring the fewest number of runs per game in MLB, don’t discount the fact they are facing the NL’s top offense in this series. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone Over, though they haven’t met since 2019. 

The Pirates had gone Over in five straight before Sunday’s loss. Ke’Bryan Hayes is back in the lineup and that played a role in me cashing the Over in their game Friday vs. the Marlins. Buehler is working on a stretch of four consecutive quality starts, but has allowed 3 HR in the last two. He could be due for a bad outing. So too could Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who did throw six shutout innings vs. Colorado (on 5/29), but had previously given up 12 runs in B2B starts. The Dodgers are 6-0 Over following an off day. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates

8* Over Astros/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Two of the American League’s top teams square off for the second time in 10 days. The previous series was played in Houston where the Astros took three of four games. Boston avoided getting swept with a win in the finale and hasn’t lost since. They swept the rival Yankees over the weekend, then beat Miami on Monday. Now they must deal with a third different opponent in as many days. That’s tough. My expectation is that this game will go Over the total. 

We’ve got a battle of southpaws for tonight’s series opener. Framber Valdez is set to make his third start of 2021 for the Astros. In the little we’ve seen of him, Valdez has looked sharp. Especially when he faced the Red Sox on June 2nd. He held them to one run and five hits over seven innings that day plus he struck out 10 batters. But Boston’s bats should do better the second time facing Valdez. The key is the game is in Fenway Park where they average 5.2 runs per game while batting a collective .270. 

Martin Perez also pitched well in the previous series between the teams. He was the starter when the Red Sox won the final game. Over 7 ⅔ IP, he didn’t allow a single run. But just like with Valdez, I expect the opposing lineup to make the necessary adjustments the second time around. Houston is averaging 5.4 rpg on the road. In six starts at home, Perez has a 4.03 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. The previous start against the Astros was arguably his best of 2021. I don’t see him coming close to duplicating it. Houston has scored five or more runs in six of its last nine games. Boston has scored that many in every game during the current win streak. 8* Over Astros/Red Sox

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): A big-time revenge spot for the Padres and on top of that, they’ve dropped B2B games at home. It wound up being a weekend split with the Mets, which is disappointing given that SD took the first two of that four-game set. But what they’re concerned about here is avenging a three-game sweep they suffered at Wrigley Field last week. That was just the second time all season that they suffered a sweep, the other coming at home vs. Milwaukee last month. This team is too good to stay down for long (I still have them rated #4 in my power ratings coming into the week) and I expect them to get their revenge Monday. 

The Cubs are now tied for first place in the NL Central (w/ Milwaukee) and look like the best team in that particular division. But after sweeping the Padres last week, the Cubs were nearly swept themselves out in San Francisco. They avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win on Sunday, but they are still just 12-16 on the road this season. Be aware that a reason for the Cubs’ success is the fact they have the most one-run wins (13) in all of MLB. I’m not sure how they’ve managed to go 13-4 vs.. left-handed starters seeing as how they are hitting a collective .219 in those contests. 

San Diego will send a southpaw (Ryan Weathers) to the mound on Monday. He’s still looking for his first win (0-1), but in seven starts Weathers has a 2.30 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. He did allow four runs in five innings against the Cubs last week, but the wind was blowing out that day (gave up 2 HRs). Road teams are averaging just 2.9 rpg here in SD (.196 BA). Adbert Alzolay has won his L2 starts for the Cubs, the last one coming against the Padres, but he’s never won three in a row this season. The Cubs are 17-35 L52 as a road underdog while the Padres are 41-15 L56 as home favorites. I like SD’s bats to “wake up.” 10* San Diego

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees have dropped 9 of 12 and while they’re still very much in the thick of the AL East pennant chase, the emerging gap between them and the other three contending team in run differential is a bit concerning. The Pinstripes now have a -3 run differential on the season. The Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all +39 or better. Boston is +51 and has taken the first two games of this three-game set at Yankee Stadium. But I look for NY to avoid the sweep tonight on “Sunday Night Baseball.”

Coming into 2021, the Yankees were expected to rule the AL East while Boston wasn’t supposed to contend. It’s fairly shocking to see that the Yankees have scored the fifth fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. Only three really bad teams (Pirates, Tigers, Nats) and the Mets, who have played just 51 games (8 fewer than than Yankees) have scored fewer. I think a turnaround at the plate is forthcoming. I am certainly not scared of fading Red Sox starter Garrett Richards in this spot as he has just seven quality starts since the start of last season. 

While the lack of hitting has been a disappointment, starting pitching has been surprisingly solid in the Bronx. One of the reasons for that is today’s starter Domingo German, who missed all of last year due to suspension. German has 0.96 WHIP in five home starts, so the fact he’s winless at Yankee Stadium seems unfair. He has a 0.79 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Yankees are 7-1 his last eight starts overall. Coming into this series, Boston had dropped 15 of their last 16 games at Yankee Stadium. I can’t see them sweeping this weekend. I just can’t. 8* NY Yankees

10* St. Louis (2:15 ET): My, how the tables have turned. When these NL Central rivals met here in St. Louis back in late April, the end result was a three-game sweep by the Cardinals. Fast forward to the present and the Redbirds are now facing the potential embarrassment of being swept in a four game series here at Busch Stadium. The revenge angle is what led me to take the Reds back on Thursday. They won that one 4-2. Then they won 6-4 on Friday (with Luis Castillo, whose TSR was 1-10, on the mound!) Saturday was 5-2 Reds. But here on Sunday, it’s time to back the Birds. I can’t see them losing four in a row at home. 

While it’s performed rather well in this series, pitching has been an issue for the Reds all season. They’ve given up the second most runs in the entire National League (only Arizona has allowed more). That they’ve beaten the Cards three straight times with the likes of Gutierrez, Castillo and Tyler Mahle starting is pretty amazing. Now it’s Wade Miley set to toe the rubber on Sunday. While Miley has allowed just 1 ER in B2B outings, he’s still got a 6.58 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his L3 times out. That’s because the last time he started on the road (at Colorado), he was charged with eight runs in only 3 IP.

The WHIP of Cardinals’ starter John Gant is a bit higher than what you’d typically see from someone that also has a 1.60 ERA, but the team will take it. St. Louis is 3-0 in Gant’s previous three starts and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of the last two (11 scoreless innings). I see him as a “stopper” of sorts here on Sunday. Gant already held the Reds scoreless for six innings back on 4/24 and that was starting opposite Miley. In 10 starts this season, Gant has yet to allow more than 3 ER even one time. Prior to yday’s loss, the Cardinals were 3-0 this season off three straight defeats. 10* St. Louis

10* Baltimore (4:05 ET): It seems a bit fortunate that Cleveland would be five games over .500 (30-25). They’ve been outscored by eight runs this season, giving them a win expectancy of 27. They lost last night 3-1 here in Baltimore, a game where I easily cashed the Under. It was 1-0 Indians after six, but they dropped to 20-2 when leading after six innings as Baltimore did all of its scoring in the 7th and 8th. The go-ahead HR had to be upheld by video review, but the Orioles will take a win any way they can after a horrific May (5-23 overall) that ended with 14 straight losses. 

Baltimore is now “hot” (3-0 in June!) and will be sending their best starter to the mound Saturday afternoon. That would be John Means, who has already thrown one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. It was basically a “perfect game” as the only baserunner to reach came after a dropped third strike. Means has given the Orioles more than just the one “near perfect” outing, however. He has a 2.05 ERA/0.796 WHIP in 11 starts and only one time has he allowed more than three earned runs. That WHIP is the best in the entire American League. Means is winless since the no-hitter, but continues to pitch well. He’s certainly due for a ‘W.’ 

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, Cleveland is one of the weakest offensive teams in either league. They are bottom three in both team batting average and on base percentage. They rely heavily on their pitching and while today’s starter (Aaron Civale) is tied for second in wins (7), he’s not as strong as Means IMO. In his last start, Civale allowed 10 hits in a loss to Toronto. He has fewer quality starts compared to Means despite having more wins. The Orioles showed last night that they can win without scoring many runs. Expect that to happen again Saturday. 10* Baltimore

8* Over A’s/Rockies (8:40 ET): Oakland leads the AL West (despite a drastically inferior run differential compared to Houston) with a 33-25 record. They head to Colorado off B2B wins where they scored a combined 18 runs. With this series being in a National League park, the A’s lose the DH, but if there’s one place where that shouldn’t matter it’s here at Coors Field where visiting teams are averaging basically 5.0 runs per game. That’s actually a lower number than past years, so don’t be surprised if it starts to go up. 

The Rockies are averaging 6.0 rpg at home this season and just hung 11 runs on the board yesterday in a win over a different AL West team (Texas). That was Colorado’s fourth straight win, but there’s no denying it figures to be a tough season in the NL West as three teams (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) have already separated themselves. Still, the Rockies can try and “clean up” in these non-division games. They are 5-0 vs. the AL West this season and 19-12 overall at home (just 4-22 on the road!) 

Oakland is 16-8 on the road this season, 7-0 following an off-day and 4-0 off a shutout win. Considering they beat Seattle 6-0 on Wednesday (my AL West Game of the Month!), they probably feel pretty good about their chances (given the above trends) tonight. But Friday starter Frankie Montas isn’t Sean Manaea, who gave them a dominant outing 48 hours ago. Montas has allowed four runs in B2B starts. He’ll be opposed here by Jon Gray, who has seen six of his last seven starts go Over. So will this one. 8* Over A’s/Rockies

8* Over Marlins/Pirates (7:05 ET): Miami is stuck in a terrible rut right now as they’ve now dropped six in a row after a 5-3 loss here in Pittsburgh last night. Runs have been hard to come by as they’ve scored more than three just twice in the past eight games. For much of the season, they’ve been the lone NL East team with a positive run differential, but that number is now down to just +3 for the year. They are giving up 4.2 runs per game on the road, which is a full run more than what they are allowing at home. 

Pittsburgh not only got a win yesterday, but they also got Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the lineup. The third baseman was supposed to be the key cog in the lineup this season, but he’s been out ever since the second game. Hayes paid immediate dividends in his return Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a triple and he scored a run. The Pirates still aren’t going to be very good in 2021, but at least they’re more exciting with Hayes in the lineup and they should probably score more runs as well. The fact they’ve allowed the fourth most runs in the NL so far is still a problem though. 

The Marlins have Starling Marte back in their lineup and he’s gone 6 for 18 with four doubles since returning. I think that tonight is when this offense finally gets on track as they’ll face right-hander Mitch Keller, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.688 WHIP for the Pirates in 10 starts. Those numbers get even worse here at PNC Park. Twice in four home starts Keller has given up seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings. Starting here for Miami is Cody Poteet, who is off his worst start of the year as he gave up five runs in a loss at Boston last weekend. Pittsburgh is on a 22-9-3 Over run in the second game of a series. 8* Over Marlins/Pirates

8* Under Indians/Orioles (7:05 ET): Two teams that have put up 6+ runs in B2B games start a series Friday night in Camden Yards as last place Baltimore hosts Cleveland. The Tribe hasn’t played since Tuesday as Wednesday’s series finale with the White Sox got rained out and Thursday was an off-day. Baltimore also had yesterday off after a 2-0 start to June. Certainly, the O’s are hoping this month will go better than May when they went 5-23 including 14 straight losses. After the off-day, look for these two offenses (neither of which is very good) to “cool off.” Take the Under in this one. 

Jean Carlos Mejia will make his first career big league start today for Cleveland. He probably won’t be asked to go long. But considering Baltimore has hit just .219 its L7 games, Mejia should find success while he’s in there. Before beating Minnesota 7-4 and 6-3 to open June, the Orioles had scored two runs or fewer in five of their previous six games. The L2 games are their highest scoring since a 12-9 loss to Washington back on May 22nd. The Under is 13-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 18 visits to Baltimore. 

The Indians are one of the weaker offensive clubs in the American League, if not in all of MLB. They are bottom three in baseball in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, whose first start of 2021 saw him go up against the White Sox and allow just one run (a solo HR) in 4 ⅓ innings. I can’t see Cleveland scoring six runs for a third consecutive game, not when they only average 3.9 per game on the road. The Under is 9-3 in Baltimore’s past 12 series openers. 8* Under Indians/Orioles

analysis soon

8* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Revenge game for the Reds and since the run line (+1.5) is available, I’ll take it. Both teams are coming off ugly losses. The Reds lost 17-3 to the Phillies on Tuesday while the Cardinals lost 14-3 in LA last night. Cincy got an unplanned off-day when yesterday’s series finale with Philly was rained out. That gives them a nice edge coming into today’s series opener as St. Louis has to fly back East with no time off. The fact that the Cards are now -10 for the year in run differential tells me they are quite lucky to be six games above .500. 

The Reds got off to a strong start this season (6-1), but are 10 games below .500 since that time. Pitching has been the main issue as they’ve allowed more runs this season than all but one team (Arizona). Hopefully, Vladimir Gutierrez can help stem the tide. After going 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA down at Triple-A Louisville, Gutierrez made a solid big league debut last Friday when he held the Cubs to just one run on two hits. The Reds lost the game 1-0, but remember that a one-run loss will suffice for us here. St. Louis is hitting .218 its L7 games. I expect Gutierrez to pitch well tonight and keep his team in this one. 

Hitting has not been an issue for the Reds this season. They’ve scored the 4th most runs in the National League with only the three heavyweights from the West (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) topping them. So getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a nice luxury to have. The Reds will have to deal with Adam Wainwright, but he’s been inconsistent all season and does not have a great track record facing Cincinnati. Wainwright is 10-14 all-time vs. the Reds with a 5.35 ERA. He’s allowed 4+ ER in four starts this season, one of them against the Reds (9-6 loss). 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Oakland (10:10 ET): While I’m not at all convinced the A’s are going to be able to stay in front of the Astros in the race for the AL West pennant, I’m even less sold on the idea of the Mariners being able to maintain a .500 record moving forward. In terms of the gap between actual and expected wins, no team in all of MLB has overachieved more than Seattle has. The M’s have the run differential of a 22-win team, yet are sitting in third place in the division with a 28-28 record. Not for long though. 

Oakland came from behind to take Tuesday’s game, 12-6, after losing the series opener on Monday. The A’s have more hits in this series (23-19) and that loss on Monday came in extra innings. Extra inning results have been vital to Seattle overachieving thus far as they are a perfect 5-0 in such games. But counting on that kind of good fortune to persist seems foolhardy. This Mariners team is among the very worst in all of baseball offensively. They are dead last in both team batting average (.207) and on base percentage (.284). 

Here at home, the M’s are batting just .193! So it should be an easy day for Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who already has an 8-3 TSR on the year. His numbers on the road are just “so-so,” but that’s largely because of one poor outing at Boston (who is one the strongest offensive clubs). In seven of his last 10 starts, Manaea has allowed 2 ER or less. He’s allowed just one run in three of his four starts on the road. Seattle’s Chris Flexen is far less consistent as his L2 starts have produced both the best and worst performances of his career. Oakland is 15-8 in road games. 10* Oakland

10* Under Tigers/Brewers (7:40 ET): It’s dueling lefties in Tuesday’s game between the Tigers and Brewers, two teams that don’t hit very well. Throw in the loss of the DH for the road team in this series and you’ve got all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Brew Crew won Monday’s opener, 3-2, and that game went 10 innings. With the pitcher having to bat, Detroit had issues at the plate (more so than usual) yesterday. Manager AJ Hinch actually pulled starter Tyler Alexander after just one inning as the Tigers had the bases loaded when it was time for him to bat. Later in the game, reliever Rony Garcia came up to the plate and struck out. Strong play on the Under here. 

The Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs this year among American League teams and remember that’s mostly with a DH in the lineup. Tonight they’ll have to contend with Eric Lauer, who will make his fourth start of the season for Milwaukee. The southpaw was sharp his last time out, holding San Diego to just one run and four hits over six innings. The Padres have scored the second most runs in the National League, so this is a far more favorable matchup for Lauer. 

The Brewers have the lowest team batting average (.210) in the NL and like the Tigers are bottom five in both on base percentage and slugging. So look for Matthew Boyd to get back on track for Detroit. Tuesday’s starter has struggled recently, but had allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his first seven starts of 2021. The Tigers have one of the highest Under percentages in all of baseball (63.5% of all games) and they are 6-0-1 Under their last seven. 10* Under Tigers/Brewers

8* Run Line Washington (7:20 ET): The Nationals were swept at home by the Braves early last month. They failed to exact revenge yesterday, losing the series opener 5-3. That was a bad call by me, my only loss out of four MLB plays for Monday. But I think the Nats have an even better shot at exacting revenge Tuesday as Stephen Strasburg will be on the hill for them. Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking Washington +1.5. Three of the seven times these NL East rivals have met this season, the game has been decided by exactly one run. 

It’s been a very disappointing start to the season for the Nationals as they are in last place in the division (with a 21-29 record) and currently on a five-game losing streak. But Atlanta has actually been one of the biggest money losing teams at the betting window this season as they are down 9.2 units in all situations. They’ve actually been priced as a 40-win team, but they are 20-20 when favored on the money line and 25-26 overall. They had two of the previous three days off (rain), so maybe that’s why they were able to start so strong yesterday (led 4-0 after two innings). Still, it was Washington that finished the game with more hits. Leadoff man Trea Turner killed the Nats yesterday by going 0 for 5 with four strikeouts. (I expect him to do better today). 

Having Strasburg on the mound also helps the Nats’ cause here. Earlier in the year, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Braves. He’s pitched well in both starts since returning from the DL, allowing only three runs total in 10 ⅓ innings. This will be the third time Washington has faced Max Fried this season, so that’s an advantage. Fried gave up five runs in just two innings the first time. He was better the second time, but I think the third time will be the charm here for the Nationals. Expect no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers just dropped three in a row to the division rival Giants, but they should bounce back on Memorial Day (at home) against the Cardinals. St. Louis is in first place in the NL Central, but they only have a +5 run differential for the season, which is not what you’d expect from a club that’s seven games over .500. The team they lead by half a game in the division, the Cubs, has a much better YTD run differential and based on that you’d expect a “changing of the guard” in the Central fairly soon. How about today?

Even though they are on a three-game losing streak, I don’t see much reason to be concerned with the Dodgers. This is still one of the best teams in baseball and they are 3-1 this season when on a 3-game losing streak. They’ve got Trevor Bauer on the hill Monday and his 5-6 team start record is very misleading when you consider his ERA and WHIP are 2.07 and 0.818 respectively. Bauer has gone a full six innings in all but one start this season and has allowed 2 ER or less 10 consecutive times. He’ll pitch well tonight.

Bauer will be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who has a 9-1 TSR and has been one of the best pitchers to bet on in all of baseball. But most of Flaherty’s starts have come as a favorite. He actually allowed seven runs his last time out, though four were unearned. That ended up being the first time all year that the Cardinals lost a Flaherty start and it came on the road against a very good team (White Sox). It’s a similar matchup Monday and St. Louis is coming off a 9-2 loss to an Arizona team that had previously lost 13 in a row. 8* LA Dodgers

9* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This sets up as a favorable series for the host Royals, who get to play two games against the worst team in all of baseball. Pittsburgh comes in as losers of seven of nine. They did take two of three in the last series, but that was at home against Colorado, who is also bad. The last time the Pirates had to hit the road, they got outscored 33-3 in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves. They’ve subsequently scored three runs or less in four of the last six games. 

Don’t expect much offense from the Bucs today as they are averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the road this season with a .219 average. They are also just 3-7 in games vs. left-handed starters (21-45 L3 seasons). The southpaw that they’ll see Monday is Mike Minor, who has pitched well recently with a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Minor held Tampa Bay (who has been hot at the plate) to just one run and two hits (in five innings). 

Kansas City has won three of its previous four series and just took two of three in Minnesota for their first series win there since 2017. They could only manage a split of two games when they visited Pittsburgh last month, but now they get them at home. No team has been outscored by more runs than the Pirates have (-74 run differential) and Monday starter Chad Kuhl is coming off the 10-day DL after posting an ugly 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP his previous three starts. KC is 6-0 its last six interleague home games when facing a right-handed starter. 9* Kansas City

8* Run Line Washington (5:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Nationals +1.5. The last series was not a good one for the Nats as they were swept at home by Milwaukee. They scored only three runs in that series and have now lost five of six overall, including four straight. In those six games (against the Reds and Brewers), Washington has crossed the plate only nine times and been shutout twice. It’s certainly looking somewhat grim right now for the last place team in the NL East. 

Up next for the Nationals is a visit to Atlanta. The Braves had an unexpected off-day Sunday as their game with the Mets was postponed due to rain. That was a break as they avoided facing Jacob deGrom in what was scheduled to be the ESPN Sunday nighter. But don’t be surprised if the rain out “throws the Braves off” a little. They are actually just 15-25 after an off-day the L3 seasons. They were beaten 13-2 on Saturday (by the Mets) and have been a disappointment this season at the betting window (-10.2 units). 

Washington has revenge here for a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this month. Three of the six games these teams have played in 2021 have been decided by one run, so you can see how the RL can come in handy here. A big key here is that Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Joe Ross gets the call today for the visitors and he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of nine starts this year. He threw four shutout innings his last time out. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

10* Under Rays/Yankees (1:05 ET): It’s been a phenomenal month for the Rays as they’ve gone 21-6 in May and won 15 of their last 16 games. However, they did drop two of three games to New York three weeks ago. That was after sweeping a three-game series here at Yankee Stadium last month. Going into that last visit to the Bronx, the Rays were on a three-game losing streak. This time, they’re on a four-game win streak and have seized first place in the AL East with a 34-20 overall record. 

No team in the AL East has allowed fewer runs this season than have the Yankees, who are giving up just 3.6 per game. Only four teams in all of baseball, three of them from the National League, are allowing a fewer number of rpg. However, the Yanks just shockingly dropped three straight games in Detroit while scoring a total of five runs. If they thought scoring runs on the Tigers was difficult, then I’m not sure what to say here as the Rays are also top 10 in MLB in run suppression. NY was 2 for 25 w/ RISP in the last series. 

Rich Hill starts the opener for the Rays. Over his previous six starts, he’s held opposing hitters to a .134 batting average while posting a 1.26 ERA. That includes a win over the Yankees, who he held scoreless for 6 ⅔ innings. Last time out, Hill struck out 13 in eight innings of work, although that ended up being a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been outstanding this year. I do think their hitters are due to cool off though. Since May 6th, the team is batting .321 w/ RISP. Jameson Taillon threw five shutout innings his last time out for the Yanks and is up for the challenge. 10* Under Rays/Yankees

10* Under Orioles/White Sox (2:10 ET): The situation in Baltimore has gotten quite dire as the Orioles have now lost 12 in a row after being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader here in Chicago. Meanwhile, things are looking rather good for the White Sox, who lead the AL Central with a 31-20 record. Their +78 run differential is the best in the American League and second best in all of MLB (San Diego). As for the Orioles, their run differential (-65) is the AL’s worst and second worst in all of MLB (Pittsburgh). So it’s teams at very opposite ends of the spectrum here and odds are that the home team finishes the sweep Sunday. 

Yesterday’s doubleheader saw 15 total runs scored in 13 innings. Only five of those runs came from the Orioles, who have now been held to four or less in six straight games. I do not anticipate them doing well today against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who is coming off B2B strong outings. Giolito has also allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. The O’s have hit just .222 in games vs. right-handed starters in 2021. 

With the White Sox so heavily favored today, odds are that we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That can be key when playing the Under. Also key is the Chicago bats hopefully not going “off” against Baltimore starter Keegan Akin, who will be making his first start of the season. Akin is a lefty that the White Sox have never faced before. So that’s a bit of an edge. Akin has made some appearances out of the bullpen this season and has 10 strikeouts in 10 ⅓ IP. The Under is 4-0 in Chicago’s L4 games vs. a southpaw starter. 10* Under Orioles/White Sox

10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros have been dealt two very painful extra inning losses by the Padres. Friday’s 10-3 defeat was as misleading a final score as you’ll ever see as San Diego scored seven runs in the top of the 10th. What happened Saturday may have been even more painful, however. Houston led 6-1 going into the eighth inning and then 6-3 going into the ninth, which is when Fernando Tatis tied the game with a 3-run HR. After the teams exchanged runs in the 10th and 11th, the Padres put the game to bed with a three-run 12th. They are now a MLB-best 8-0 in Interleague Play this season. 

The Astros have clearly deserved a better fate in this series (as have Under bettors!) and I think they’ll avoid the sweep Sunday. They hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who has a 0.857 WHIP his L3 starts. In 26 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA. (Remember he spent a lot of time in the National League). Despite what’s gone down in this series, I still firmly believe that Houston is the best team in the AL West. Just look at their vastly superior run differential. They have won six of Greinke’s previous eight starts, the only losses coming to the Yankees and Dodgers. 

San Diego has now played four consecutive extra inning games, so they’ve got to be getting a bit tired. There is no denying that this is a very good baseball team, one that is very much living up to the preseason hype. However, it sure seems fortunate that they are averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road with a .239 team average. (Houston averages a near identical # of rpg at home, but w/ a BA that’s almost 30 pts higher). Speaking of the road, Padres starter Blake Snell has a 7.85 ERA and 2.017 WHIP in five away starts (0-5 TSR). 10* Houston

8* Run Line Arizona (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the D’backs +1.5. Arizona just keeps on losing as the streak has now reached 12 in a row following last night’s 8-6 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. Fortunately, I was on the Over, which was an easy winner that cashed in the top of the fourth inning. As bad as things are in the desert right now, five of the losses during this streak have been by one run. I’m confident Arizona gets it done today with the benefit of the RL. 

After putting eight runs on the board last night, some may be tempted to say St. Louis “broke out” of its recent offensive slump. But that’s really not the case. They only had six hits. They’re batting just .200 the L7 games and .216 for the year on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, has left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in two of their last three losses. They average 5.0 rpg at home (.263 team BA). Last night saw them leave 13 runners on base. It was a game they easily could have won. 

Adam Wainwright was sharp in his last start for St. Louis, allowing just one hit over eight scoreless frames. But that was at home. On the road, he has an 0-3 team start record, 8.56 ERA and 1.829 WHIP. So don’t be surprised if he struggles tonight. Then there’s the matter of the Cardinals scoring three runs or less in seven of Wainwright’s nine starts this season. Seth Frankoff is making just his third start of 2021 for the D’backs and it should go better than the last one (which was at Coors Field). 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Boston (4:10 ET): Rain wreaked havoc on last night’s MLB slate. The Marlins and Red Sox only got six innings in for their series opener, but that’s enough to make it an “official game” and Boston will gladly take the 5-2 win. This is an important weekend for the Red Sox as they’ve fallen out of first place in the AL East and now trail the red hot Rays by one-half game. With a 6-2 record in Interleague Play and 11-5 record vs. left-handed starters, I’m confident they’ll win again Saturday. 

Nathan Eovaldi will start this one for the home team. He has pitched better on the road than here at Fenway in 2021, but facing a National League lineup should be a favorable matchup. While Miami does get to use a DH in this series, this is a lineup that only averages 3.9 runs per game and hits .220 on the road. Over the last four games, the Marlins have scored just eight total runs. While he’s had some tough outings, Eovaldi has allowed 2 ER or fewer six times this season. He has a 1.102 WHIP over his last three outings. 

Miami’s chance for success today rests heavily on the arm of starter Trevor Rogers, who has a 1.75 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 starts. But he’ll be facing a much stronger lineup than he usually faces this afternoon. The Red Sox are tied for the #1 spot in all of MLB as they are averaging 5.2 runs per game. This being a day game is a big edge for Boston as the Marlins average only 2.5 rpg (.185 BA) in 16 afternoon starts this season. Rogers only previous IL start of 2021 was at home and against Baltimore. 8* Boston

8* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle took yesterday’s series opener, 5-0, a much needed result for them after they’d dropped seven of their previous nine. As bad as things have been in the Pacifc Northwest recently, Texas is the team in last place in the AL West as they’ve now dropped six of nine. During that stretch, the Rangers have been shutout three times (including yday). However, if they can take solace in one thing it’s that the Mariners are dead last in MLB in both batting average and slugging percentage. 

As a team, the M’s came into yesterday’s game batting just .178 at home. That’s horrendous! Well, not if you’re Jordan Lyles, the Texas starter for Friday’s game. Lyles has generally been okay for the Rangers this season, allowing 3 ER or less in seven of his 10 starts. He had one horrible outing on April 26th, but he was making his second consecutive start against the same team (Angels). Seattle did not face Lyles in the previous series between the teams. Lyles has been a dog on the ML in every start thus far, so a 5-4 TSR is actually good. 

The Over is 3-0 in the previous three starts of Seattle’s Justus Sheffield. But I look for that to change here. Yes, he did struggle when he faced the Rangers on the road earlier this year. But Sheffield has been sharp each of the last two starts at home where he’s gone six innings both times and allowed just 2 ER total (on just 7 hits). Texas came into yday hitting just .200 over its last seven games, so this should be another low-scoring game between familiar foes. 8* Under Rangers/Mariners

10* Over Cardinals/D’backs (9:40 ET): Embattled Arizona has now dropped 11 straight following last night’s 5-4 loss in extra innings. They were forced into making a pitching change just hours before the start of Thursday’s game and unfortunately Jon Duplantier (making his 1st big league appearance since 2019) could not get the job done as he allowed four runs over 4 ⅔ IP. The D’backs did rally to tie the game in the later innings, but it was all for naught. That result comes on the heels of another 5-4 loss the previous day where they BLEW a 4-0 lead and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. 

Meanwhile, St. Louis has now won B2B games following their own tough stretch. But I don’t think they can be trusted today as they send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has not been good in 2021 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his three starts. The Cardinals have lost them all. Going back to last season, the Cards have lost ALL EIGHT games that Oviedo has started. So Arizona has some hope here. They are averaging a solid 4.0 runs per game. Given how many they typically allow, a season average day at the plate would suffice for how I’m playing this game. 

Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball for the D’backs, trying to end this long losing streak. His best days are clearly behind him though. MadBum just allowed a season-high seven runs his last time out. While that was at Coors Field, the Over is 3-0 in his three home starts as well. Bumgarner had been pitching better before that start in Denver, but don’t forget he also began 2021 by allowing 5+ ER in each of his first three outings. I think both teams are due to “break out” at the plate tonight. 10* Over Cardinals/D’backs

8* Under Blue Jays/Indians (7:10 ET): Toronto finds itself in somewhat of an unenviable spot today as it visits Cleveland. They’ve lost seven of nine and just split a doubleheader with the Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland comes in having taken three of four from a team they always seem to dominate (Detroit) and is now six games over .500. This will be the first meeting between these teams in almost two years and I expect it to be a low-scoring one as each of the last three Indians’ games have seen seven or fewer total runs scored. Meanwhile, there were only 10 total runs scored in yday’s Jays-Yankees twinbill. 

Cleveland does not hit particularly well as they came into yday’s game with a .215 team batting average. They were actually shutout 1-0 in a loss Wednesday before bouncing back to win 5-2 yday afternoon. Over the L8 games, the Tribe has scored 28 total runs and been shutout twice. So expect Toronto south Hyun-Jin Ryu to pitch well Friday as he makes his 10th start of the season. Ryu already has a solid 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP this season. He’s been especially good in his L3 starts with a 1.31 ERA & 0.919 WHIP. 

Cleveland is going with Eli Morgan, a top prospect that will be making his big league debut. The “unknown factor” certainly is in Morgan’s favor Friday. The Blue Jays scored only five runs in 14 innings of baseball on Thursday and one thing you know you’re going to get with the Indians is solid pitching. Visiting teams are batting a collective .215 at Progressive Field this season and not much better overall. Of course, there’s the issue I brought up earlier and that’s the Indians don’t hit well themselves. 10* Under Blue Jays/Indians

8* Run Line LA Angels (9:40 ET): Both these AL West teams won yesterday afternoon with the Angels beating the Rangers 9-8 and the A’s defeating the Mariners 6-3. While Oakland continues to lead the division, it’s the Angels that are on a three-game win streak and the A’s are a questionable first place team in my eyes. I say that based on the fact they’ve been outscored this season by 11 runs, which is not at all indicative of a team with a 29-22 record. They had that 13-game win streak earlier in the season, but are obviously just 16-22 otherwise (with a -56 run differential!). I say it’s only a “matter of time” before Houston (+55 YTD run differential) passes them and this matchup might aid in that “changing of the guard.” 

As you’d expect, the starting pitching matchup heavily influenced my decision on this one. Shohei Ohtani starts for Los Angeles today. Despite having an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, Ohtani has pitched well during that time with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The problem has been a lack of support as the Angels have scored just four runs total in those three games. For the year, Ohtani has a 2.37 ERA and he’s yet to drop a decision. The two-way star is expected to bat in this game as well. 

I know LA is without Mike Trout, leaving a massive hole in the everyday lineup, but they’ve scored 20 runs the past two days. Tonight will be their second time seeing Oakland starter Chris Bassitt in less than a week. They faced him on Saturday and while that was a 6-2 loss, look for the tables to turn Thursday. Bassitt is winless at home this season and his offense is hitting just .212 at RingCentral Coliseum. Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The line movement for tonight’s series opener between St. Louis & Arizona definitely caused me to raise an eyebrow. The D’backs, losers of 10 in a row and 20 of 24 games this month, are now slight favorites to beat a first place Cardinals team that won 4-0 yesterday afternoon. Now I’m certainly willing to fade the Cards again after they “got one over” on me in that game vs. the White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. They won despite only five hits, but two were Tommy Edman home runs and that’s all they needed. But I sense this is a trap game for a team that’s failed to score more than four runs in any of its last six games. 

Meanwhile, little has gone right for Arizona and yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Giants may have been the new nadir. They blew an early 4-0 lead and down one run in the bottom of the ninth, they left the bases loaded. It was a game they outhit the Giants 13-9, but the D’backs could not get a run across the plate after the second inning. Just like St. Louis, the D’backs are struggling to score, but they do average a solid 5.0 rpg at home where they are hitting .265. That’s a lot better average than St. Louis, who hits just .216 on the road. 

So I see Arizona’s losing skid coming to an end today as they send rookie Matt Peacock out to the bump. In his two previous starts, Peacock has not been bad at all as he has a 2.61 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. I’m simply not sold on this St. Louis team which leads its division despite a YTD run differential of only +6. Carlos Martinez, who will be their starter on Thursday, began the year with an 0-4 TSR and the team lost his last start, 12-3 to the Cubs. The Cards have won B2B games only one time in the L2 weeks and that was against Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona 

10* San Diego (7:40 ET): The Padres finally broke through against the Brewers last night, beating them 7-1 thanks to some savvy baserunning (six steals) and a masterful start from Joe Musgrove. Previously, SD was 0-5 this season vs. the Brew Crew, a record that made little sense given that the Padres are obviously the better team. They’ve now won 10 of their last 11 games and have a half game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. I currently have San Diego #2 overall in my own personal power rankings. 

Tonight actually marks the first time in the series that the Padres are favored to win. Last night, they were up against Corbin Burnes, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball the first two months of the season. But they got to him with five steals and drew three walks. The Padres’ offense has been quite impressive during this 10-1 run, scoring 76 runs or an average of nearly 7.0 per game. Tonight they face former teammate Eric Lauer, a lefty that allowed three home runs the last time he started (which was 5/4).

Pitching has been just as key to the Padres success this season. No team is allowing a fewer number of runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1. Opponents are hitting just .202 against them for the year! Milwaukee had just two hits in last night’s game as Musgrove and three relievers totally shut them down. The Brewers are 27th in MLB in runs scored per game and hitting only .209 as a team. Look for them to struggle here against Chris Paddack, who has a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts, all Padres’ wins. 10* San Diego

6* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): While it’s still early in the season and they have yet to put any real distance between themselves and the rest of the division, the White Sox are clearly establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AL Central. They have the best run differential in all of the American League entering Tuesday (+73) while no other team in the Central is better than +2. This afternoon they go for a three-game sweep of floundering St. Louis, who they’ve outscored 13-4 in the first two games.

The Cardinals don’t seem to have recovered from Sunday night’s painful 2-1 loss to the rival Cubs. In that game, they allowed just three hits. While the Cards remain in first place over in the NL Central, they now have a run differential of just +2, a far cry from the White Sox even though the teams have fairly similar records. St. Louis just isn’t scoring many runs of late. Yesterday was the fifth straight game where they finished with three runs or fewer. They are hitting only .215 on the road for the season. 

The two starting pitchers for this afternoon - John Gant for St. Louis and Carlos Rodon for Chicago - have similar ERAs. But WHIP tells a far different story when it comes to these pitchers’ respective seasons. As I’ve been through before with him, Gant is getting away with putting a LOT of runners on base. His WHIP is 1.563. He’s also lasted more than 5 ⅓ in just one of his eight outings. Compare that to Rodon, who has a WHIP of 0.797. Even though the White Sox ended up not winning the game, Rodon was masterful his last time out in holding the Yankees to just two hits over six scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. That was the 4th start this year where Rodon didn’t allow a run. He’s allow 1 ER or less in six of seven starts. 6* Chi White Sox

9* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. I lost with them yesterday, but the final score was 6-5, a result that will suffice tonight. While you probably don’t need me to tell you that Detroit is “bad,” they had won 9 of 11 heading into Saturday. Two of their last three losses have been by one run. Cleveland has been the Tigers’ “kryptonite” in recent seasons as the head to head record in this AL Central rivalry is 30-6 in the Indians’ favor since 2019! That includes four straight wins this season. But still playing with revenge for the prior sweep, I’ll back Detroit +1.5. 

Tarik Skubal finally got a win his last time out for the Tigers. He pitched five innings and gave up two runs in a 6-2 win over Seattle. The Tigers swept that series, but have reverted back to previous form ever since. There’s no denying that Skubal’s won-loss record isn’t the best, however he hasn’t pitched all that poorly. Six of his seven starts have seen him allow four runs or less. He has an 0-2 TSR vs. Cleveland and both times started opposite Aaron Civale, who he’ll face again tonight. I think the third time could be the charm here for Skubal as the Indians are not the most potent offensive ballclub. 

Civale has had the Tigers’ number in the past as he’s 5-0 all-time against them (2.40 ERA) including the two wins back in April where he allowed just five hits. Civale’s team start record now stands at 7-2 for the year, but I’m still a little unsold on him. This just feels like a spot where the Tigers can “ambush” Cleveland as they went off as the betting favorite for yesterday’s opener. An already weak Indians lineup is now even weaker with Franmil Reyes out six to seven weeks. The Tigers left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth last night, so they easily could have won the game. They were just 3 for 13 w/ RISP. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

7* Washington (7:05 ET): The Reds got off to a 6-1 start, but are 10 games under .500 ever since. They come into this series in the Nation’s Capital having dropped six of seven, all at home. They were swept by the Giants, then lost two of three to the Brewers over the weekend. While the club certainly has no problem putting runs on the board (4th in MLB), run suppression has been a major issue for Cincy as they are dead last in all of MLB in runs per game allowed (5.6). I expect that issue to continue in Tuesday’s opener vs. the Nats and because of who they’re facing on the mound, they won’t be scoring as much as usual. 

Max Scherzer goes today for the home team and he’s having a strong start to 2021. There’s been only one time in the L8 starts where Scherzer gave up more than two runs and that was under AL rules, meaning he was facing a lineup with a DH. Since joining the Nationals, Scherzer is 5-0 against the Reds with a 1.06 ERA and 55 strikeouts. You’re looking at a 2.24 ERA and 0.852 WHIP from Scherzer this season and with the exception of that one Interleague start, he’s allowed just four total runs over those L8 starts. 

Tyler Mahle, the Reds starter for Tuesday, allowed seven runs in his last start alone and that lasted only two innings. So this looks to be a pretty significant pitching mismatch in the Nats’ favor. That last start marked the second time Mahle has given up 6+ ER in a start this year. The Reds’ staff was dead last in ERA among NL teams entering the week. Worst of all, Mahle has a 12.15 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Nationals. While Cincy is sinking, Washington is coming off its first off-day in two weeks and a sweep of the Orioles before that. 7* Washington

9* San Diego (7:40 ET): I am SHOCKED at the pricing of the Padres for this one. Not only do they have revenge for a prior sweep, but they’re red hot right now (winners of nine in a row). After sweeping Seattle over the weekend (in dominant fashion), I’ve got the Padres ranked at the top of my own personal power ratings in MLB. The last day that San Diego failed to win a game was May 8th. Their only loss since was part of a doubleheader on the 12th as they’ve won 12 of the last 13 games overall. They outscored the Mariners 31-7 over the weekend. 

Milwaukee got off to fast start this season, but things have quickly gone south. They did just take two of three in Cincinnati, but are just 3-6 their L9 games and Sunday marked only the 2nd time in that stretch they scored more than four runs. That’s simply not enough offense when facing the Padres, who are among the best offensive clubs in baseball. Meanwhile, there aren’t many teams in either league to have scored fewer runs than the Brewers this season. 

I realize that Brandon Woodruff is pitching tonight for the Brew Crew and his numbers have been outstanding in 2021. But no team is allowing fewer runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1 and during the nine-game win streak, the Padres are averaging 7.3 runs per game. Lefty Blake Snell gets the starting nod here for SD and he’s a terrible matchup for a Milwaukee lineup that’s scoring only 2.5 rpg when against a southpaw starter (just 2-6 in those games). You could point to the fact that the entirety of the Padres’ nine-game run has been at home, but they average more runs per game on the road and Milwaukee has a losing home record. Look for the Padres to get revenge here for last month’s sweep. 9* San Diego

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers aren’t going to get my endorsement many times this season, but they are taking the field with revenge on the mind and Spencer Turnbull on the mound Monday. The last time we saw Turnbull, he tossed one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. That outing came in Seattle and was the continuation of a strong start to 2021 for the right-hander, who now has 2.88 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in six starts. Facing a Cleveland team that doesn’t hit particularly well (.214 BA), Turnbull should be effective yet again tonight.

Though Detroit has lost each of the previous two days (I played against them Saturday), they’ve done a decent job at climbing out of the “abyss” they were in early in the season. Things looked particularly dire when they’d dropped 16 of 18 games. But they’ve now won 9 of 13 and yesterday’s loss in KC came on a walk-off HR. The team still doesn’t hit particularly well, but they’ve gotten good pitching of late and that trend should certainly continue with Turnbull. Also, I’d like to point out that the Tigers left 20 men on base the L2 days, which certainly helps explain those losses. I think they could be poised for an offensive breakthrough tonight. 

Sam Hentges will be making his third start for Cleveland in this one and he’s yet to be effective. I was at the ballpark to watch his 1st start and have to say the Indians were lucky to win that one (2-1 over the Cubs) as Hentges put a LOT of runners on base in his 4 ⅔ innings of work. He was even worse when I faded him exactly one week ago, a 7-4 loss to the Angels where he gave up six runs in 1 ⅔ IP. Control has been an issue. When the Indians swept the Tigers, that was at Progressive Field. They come into Detroit having lost six of nine and fell in extra innings Sunday (which can always be deflating for the next day). A rare chance to take the Tigers. 10* Detroit

9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): The Cubs and Cards play the rubber match of this three-game set Sunday night on ESPN. As of right now, these are looking like the two best teams in the division (NL Central). The Pirates are awful, the Reds can’t pitch and the Brewers can’t score. These two are more complete ball clubs. It was a dominant 12-3 win by the Cubs on Friday, but that was followed by the Cardinals winning 2-1 yesterday. The fact that the home team has been able to split the first two games while scoring only five combined runs is something I view as a positive as it’s likely they’ll “break out” at the plate tonight. 

I say that because they’re facing Zach Davies, who has not been particularly impressive in 2021 even though he has a winning team start record (5-4). Davies is 2-2 in those nine starts with a 5.58 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The numbers get even more dire on the road (8.59, 2.249). He also isn’t going very deep into games. Only one time, against lowly Pittsburgh, has he gone a full six innings. Six of his nine starts have been five innings or less. The Cubs haven’t been a very good road team thus far as they’re just 7-13 outside of Wrigley Field and getting outscored by a full run per game. 

St. Louis is 15-9 at Busch Stadium and a big reason for their success here is that opposing teams are batting only .219. Adam Wainwright, a long-time Cubs nemesis, will look to continue that trend tonight. No active pitcher has more career victories against the Cubs than Wainwright’s 17. While he was rocked last weekend by San Diego, Wainwright’s last start here at home saw him nearly go the distance (8 ⅓ IP) while allowing no runs and just three hits. The Cubs had only five hits on Saturday after being fortunate enough to score 12 runs on 12 hits Friday. This might seem like an “even matchup,” but I like the Cards a lot here. 9* St. Louis

8* Houston (2:35 ET): While I’m a big believer in teams wanting to exact revenge for a previous sweep (especially if they’re division foes), the results of this series are a bit head-scratching. Texas came in with revenge for a four-game sweep they suffered in Houston last weekend. So you had to figure they’d win one this weekend. But they’ve now won two following yesterday’s 8-4 triumph. Despite coming in as bigger underdogs (on the money line), Saturday was actually an easier win than Friday (which was an extra inning affair). I can’t see the Astros being swept this weekend, so I’ll take them on Sunday.

I believe Houston is definitely the best team in the AL West this season. Just look at the run differential column in the standings. They are +60. No other team in the division has a positive run differential! Going by that metric, the ‘Stros should be running away with things. They’re not. Instead, they are currently 1.5 games back of Oakland, who they just took two of three from earlier this week.

Cristian Javier will get the baseball today for Houston, looking to play stopper. He’s charged with slowing down the Rangers’ red hot slugger Adolis Garcia, whose three home runs in this series have proved to be the difference. Javier is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in three previous starts vs. Texas and earned a win against them last weekend by allowing three runs on four hits, over seven innings. He followed that up with another quality start at Oakland. For the season, Javier’s WHIP is 0.977. The Astros have the second highest scoring offense in baseball (scored one fewer run than Boston), so they should do well today against the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz, who has not been pitching well of late (7.04 ERA, 1.695 WHIP L3 starts). 8* Houston

8* Kansas City (4:10 ET): The revenge factor has now increased for the Royals after dropping Friday’s series opener to the Tigers by a score of 7-5. They were previously swept up in Detroit earlier this month, a result which begat the Tigers shockingly winning 9 of their last 11 games. The Tigers no longer own the worst run differential in all of MLB (Pittsburgh does, after losing 20-1 yday), but they are last among American League clubs at -55. I can’t see KC dropping another one at home to them. 

Last night, the Royals looked to be on their way to exacting some revenge for that prior sweep. They led 5-3 going into the top of the 7th, which is when disaster struck (i.e. a 4-run Detroit inning). It was one swing of the bat, a Miguel Cabrera grand slam, that changed things from 5-3 Royals to 7-5 Tigers. Cabrera homered twice Friday, doubling his season total to four. It should be noted that the Tigers have now won four in a row. That matches a season-high. They are 7-15 in day games though and all “good” streaks must come to an end. 

The Tigers will have Matthew Boyd, arguably their most consistent starter, on the mound Saturday. But he allowed five runs his last time out in what was his worst outing to date. For the third time this season, he’ll be opposed by the Royals’ Brady Singer. Back on 4-24, Boyd was bested by Singer in a 2-1 pitchers’ duel. Boyd then got some revenge earlier this month in another game that was decided by one run. Both games were in Detroit. At the end of the day, this simply boils down to the revenge factor and the fact the Tigers still aren’t very good. 8* Kansas City

8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians were embarrassed at home last night, losing 10-0 to the Twins. With ace Shane Bieber on the bump Saturday afternoon, you’ve got to like the Tribe’s chances of bouncing back. It has been a massively disappointing start to the season for the Twins, who have the worst win percentage in the American League (.364). I’ve stated before that they’ve been more “unlucky” than “bad,” but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win two in a row at Progressive Field where beating Bieber is certainly a “tall order.” 

Bieber has a 6-3 team start record this season, but the Indians did lose his last start 6-3 up in Seattle. The club has now dropped five of seven following a season-best stretch where they won 9 of 10. Last time out was the first time all season that Bieber failed to go five innings. His number of strikeouts is “down” over the L3 starts, but he still leads all of MLB with 92 on the year. One would have to go back to August of 2019 to find the last time Bieber lost B2B starts. 

Bieber has had the Twins’ number through the years, especially when facing them at home. He’s 3-0 against them in five all-time starts at Progressive Field. He also had a 2.14 ERA (w/ 31 strikeouts) the three times he faced them in 2020. Kenta Maeda, who has been dealing with a groin issue, goes for the Twins Saturday. I don’t think he’s up for this challenge considering he’s allowed 5+ runs in three of his last five starts. Just one time in eight starts has he lasted a full six innings and when he pitched here in Cleveland on 4-27, he gave up three home runs in 7-4 loss. 8* Cleveland

10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered up in the Motor City earlier this month. The Tigers, shockingly, have now won 8 of 10 following another sweep as they won all three games in Seattle earlier this week. But they still have the worst run differential in all of baseball at -57 and I just can’t see them winning a fourth straight game overall, or beating the same opponent four times in a row for that matter. Expect KC to get its revenge here in the series opener. 

The Royals come into this series with some “momentum” (hate that word) of their own as they have won four of five and just took both games vs. Milwaukee. Those two were at home and what’s impressive about the wins is they beat Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, who are the Brew Crew’s two top starting pitchers. It should be noted that all seven times the Royals have faced the Tigers this season, the game has been in Detroit. In the first series, they took three of four. Other than Seattle earlier this week, Detroit has swept two other teams this year. Following each prior sweep, they lost the next series opener. 

The Tigers allowed only three runs in the entire series vs. Seattle, but expect them to give up more than that tonight with Jose Urena starting. Urena has managed to last just seven total innings in his last two starts combined and he gave up four runs in 2 ⅔ innings his last outing. He also took a liner off his leg, so he may not be 100 percent here. The Royals go w/ Mike Minor, who was excellent in his last appearance, allowing just one run and two hits in a 5-1 win (+175) over the White Sox. The team’s bullpen has also been outstanding of late, giving up just three runs in its last 25 innings of work. Detroit is just 8-20 following an off-day. 10* Kansas City

8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the +1.5 with the Marlins. Miami is the lone team in the NL East to have a positive run differential right now (+2) and seeing as how they just beat the Phillies 3-1 last night, I’ll gladly take them here with an added run and a half “in my back pocket.” I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won “outright” as a big night at the plate is probably overdue following four straight games with three or fewer runs. 

Starting tonight’s finale for Miami will be Sandy Alcantara, who was roughed up his last time out. It was the shortest start of his career (1 ⅓ innings) and he gave up eight runs on seven hits. But it should be noted that it was against the Dodgers. Alcantara’s previous four starts all saw him allow 2 ER or less. Three of those saw him go six innings or longer. So chalk up the last start as an aberration against a very good team. Alcantara is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six previous starts vs. Philadelphia, so that’s another reason to expect a bounce back effort. 

The Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez, who has allowed just one run in each of his L3 starts. But consistency has always been an issue for Velasquez and the Marlins haven’t been his favorite opponent in past years. In 17 career starts against them, Velasquez has a 4.88 ERA and he’s just 4-4. In his five starts this season, Velasquez has made it a full six innings only one time and he’s allowed at least one HR in every start (7 total). Again, Miami seems likely to break out at the plate and they are the better team here. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Houston (3:37 ET): Personally, I believe it is inarguable that Houston is better than Oakland. They are up 6-3 in the season series and the disparity in run differential has gotten quite ridiculous, especially when you consider that the A’s are the team in first place. Following the lopsided 8-1 win on Wednesday night, the Astros have a +62 run differential on the season. That’s second best in all of MLB. On the other hand, the A’s have a -14 YTD run differential, which makes you question how they got to 26-18. I like the Astros to take the series’ rubber match Thursday afternoon. 

Houston has won seven of eight, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. As mentioned above, they dominated last night’s game. Not only did it end up being 8-1, but they had a 15-4 edge in hits as well. Now they get their third look of the season at Cole Irvin. The southpaw has been very effective for the A’s over his L6 starts (1.89 ERA), but he was rocked both previous times he faced Houston. Irvin allowed eight runs in 9 ⅔ innings and Oakland lost both games, by scores of 9-1 and 6-2. In games where they are facing a LH starter, the Astros’ batting average is .286. 

Luis Garcia will be on the mound today for Houston. He finally got a win his last time out after holding Texas to just one run in five innings. His 1-5 TSR is very misleading when you consider he has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts. Garcia has faced Oakland only one time in his career and that was last September when he blanked them over five innings and allowed just one hit. That this will be the Astros’ third time seeing Irvin this season while it’s the first the A’s have faced Garcia is a big edge to the road team, who is the superior ballclub anyway. 10* Houston

9* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): The Reds find themselves in an unenviable spot Thursday afternoon, that being in a position to get swept at home in a four-game series. It’s a good Giants team they are facing, but I like to take home teams in this spot. A sense of pride typically kicks in for the home team when they are facing the prospect of being swept. Not that Cincy wasn’t motivated to win any of the L3 days, but I just can’t see them losing four in a row, especially after being shut out last night. The Reds are not a bad team. 

Cincinnati has actually lost five in a row to the Giants dating back to a previous series in SF. The Giants have been incredibly impressive to this point as they are ahead of the far more heavily hyped Dodgers and Padres in the NL West and have the best win percentage in all of MLB. It’s all about run prevention for them as they are allowing the second fewest runs per game. Cincinnati is the highest scoring team in the National League though and I don’t think they can be “kept down” for four consecutive games.

This is only the second time all season that the Reds have lost three in a row. The only longer losing skid was a real ugly one back in April when they dropped seven in a row. Tyler Mahle looks to play “stopper” on the mound today. Mahle has been the team’s most reliable starter this year, with a 6-2 TSR and he’s allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of those eight starts. For the third straight game, the Giants are starting a former Cincinnati pitcher, in this case Johnny Cueto. After spending time on the DL, Cueto has not been all that effective in his L2 starts, giving up seven runs and 16 hits in 7 ⅔ IP. Reds avoid the sweep here. 9* Cincinnati

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners aren’t a team that gets my endorsement very often, but at home off B2B losses to the Tigers is probably a good time to “jump on.” Getting swept at home by a team with the worst run differential in the sport would be quite embarrassing and it’s a fate that I believe the M’s will be determined to avoid Weds night. The Tigers, who have won seven of nine since a brutal 2-13 stretch, got a no-hitter (already the 5th of this MLB season) last night from Spencer Turnbull. But one game shouldn’t alter the perception of a team that’s been outscored by 61 runs so far this season. 

So Seattle was no-hit last night and has put only one run on the board in this series. But they get a break tonight in that they will be facing Tarik Skubal. The Tigers have lost all six Skubal starts so far with the southpaw posting a 6.26 ERA and 1.537 WHIP. He’s 0-3 on the road with a 9.00 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. While Detroit has been getting good pitching recently, that streak figures to end tonight and this is still the lowest scoring team in the American League. 

Now Seattle starter Logan Gilbert didn’t exactly have an outstanding 2021 debut when he made his 1st start last week against Cleveland. He allowed two homers and four runs in four innings. The good news for Gilbert, who is widely considered the best pitching prospect in the organization, is he had five strikeouts and zero walks. I think he’ll be a lot better here against a weaker opponent. The Mariners’ offense figures to wake up as well. 10* Seattle

8* Washington (7:40 ET): Had this particular starting pitching matchup taken place in 2015 (the year that Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young), then perhaps I’d be looking at betting the Under. But in 2021, Max Scherzer vs. Arrieta is a lopsided mismatch, clearly in the former’s favor. Scherzer comes into Wednesday’s start sporting a 2.10 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He’s 2-0 this month with a no decision. Those three starts have seen Scherzer go 21 ⅔ innings and give up only two runs (both solo HRs) on nine hits. He’s fanned 30 opposing hitters while walking just two. 

Arrieta also won his last time out, though he gave up two home runs. He was fortunate that no one was on base either time. It was also fortunate that he was facing the lowly Detroit Tigers. Despite that win, Arrieta hasn’t been all that great lately with a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts. He was coming off a two-week stint on the injured list before facing the Tigers. Against the Nationals, he’s just 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 17 career starts. Now compare that to Scherzer, who is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Scherzer will have to be at his best here as the Cubs have taken the first two games of this series. I had them on Monday, but the pitching matchup was much more favorable to them that day. Thanks to some reshuffling in the lineup, the Cubs’ offense has woken up a bit in a 4-1 stretch. But they figure to be quieted back down tonight. They are still hitting only .212 in games vs. RH starters and Scherzer is a righty. 8* Washington

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:45 ET): Again, it’s a real “rogue’s gallery” that I’m going with today, but the Pirates - like the Twins - have revenge for a prior sweep and they have gone a respectable 4-4 their L8 games. They just split four games with a very good Giants team that’s in first place in the NL West. The Cardinals are in first place in the Central, but were just swept out in San Diego over the weekend. That series saw them score all of 10 runs and they’ve put only 13 on the board the last five games. Take the Bucs +1.5 in this one.

The previous series between these teams was in Pittsburgh, so the Pirates being the road team doesn’t really concern me. I also want to say that I was not surprised to see the Cardinals get swept out in San Diego. The run prevention we’ve seen from them thus far seems unsustainable. Fielding has been elite and the pitching staff does a great job in not giving up many home runs. But the KW rate of the starting staff has been far from impressive to this point. To illustrate my point about how the Cards have been a bit lucky when it comes to run prevention, just look at tonight’s starter John Gant. While he has a 1.84 ERA in seven starts, his WHIP is 1.631. He’s getting away with putting a lot of runners of base. 

JT Brubaker starts the series opener for Pittsburgh. I like the way he’s pitched thus far with a 2.58 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven starts. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and just threw six solid innings in a 7-2 win over Cincinnati his last time out. Pirate hitters must be patient tonight because Gant is not shy about issuing walks. He has 27 of them in seven starts. (Brubaker has only nine and four of those came in his first start). The Cards are hitting just .210 the L7 games. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:40 ET): Well, the Twins got embarrassed here at home last night, losing to the White Sox 16-4. I was also embarrassed for taking the home team (did win my other two plays yesterday though). It was definitely the ugliest of the Twins’ four losses to the White Sox in 2021. But having yet to beat their AL Central rivals this season and coming off such an embarrassing loss, a sense of pride has to kick in. Just to be safe, I’ll grab the +1.5 and take Minnesota on the run line here.

As I’ve stated previously, I don’t think the Twins are as bad as their record, which right now is the worst in all of MLB. They’ve had terrible luck in extra innings (0-7!) and not much in the way of clutch hitting. They should have scored more last night given they had 11 hits, but they went just 2 for 9 with RISP (White Sox were 7 for 13). I like that Tuesday’s starter Michael Pineda has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts this season and he has a 0.918 WHIP at home. Giving up two home runs doomed him in last week’s start vs. the White Sox, but he only gave up four hits total. Pineda has a 3.38 ERA in 10 career games vs. Chicago. 

For the second straight time, Pineda will be opposed by Lance Lynn, who allowed just an unearned run and two hits (5 IP) in last week’s start. Admittedly, Lynn has been pretty good thus far, not giving up even one earned run in four of his six outings. But he’s only gone past the fifth inning twice. The White Sox won’t have reigning MVP Jose Abreu in the lineup for the remainder of this series. While his absence certainly didn’t affect last night’s game, eventually it will catch up. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that I’m playing the run line in all three games in this report. The Orioles may seem like a strange candidate to back in this situation, given their problems winning at home and the fact TB is coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets. But the O’s did win themselves Sunday, beating the Yankees 10-6 thanks to a much needed offensive display. There’s a lot more volatility in these division matchups and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one run loss tonight. 

I will hand it to the Rays. Over their L10 games, they’ve allowed more than three runs just two times. But I don’t see them maintaining some of the recent offensive numbers, such as the 31 runs scored in the past four games. The team is still only batting .226 for the year and isn’t much higher than that in the L7 games. It doesn’t seem sustainable to continue averaging 5.3 rpg on the road while batting only .231. So Matt Harvey, tonight’s starter for Baltimore, should bounce back from a disastrous outing against the Mets last week. Before that disastrous start, Harvey had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight outings. 

The Rays have not offered up much offense in either of the two previous games started by Luis Patino. In fact, they’ve scored just one total run for him. Patino has pitched relatively well, though he’s more of an “opener” and thus has only gone 6 ⅔ innings combined in the two starts.The Tampa bullpen numbers go up on the road, which is another thing to consider here as is the fact the Rays have dropped five of the last seven series openers. They are 1-3 this season following an off-day. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* LA Angels (9:40 ET): In spite of Mike Trout’s best efforts, the Angels are off to a bad start this season and really their 17-22 record could probably be a lot worse when you consider they’ve been outscored by 47 runs. In all of baseball, only the Tigers have a worse run differential. So it may seem curious that I’m putting my dollars behind them on Monday. But I think this is a good spot to take the Halos as they open a three-game set with light-hitting Cleveland. They just snapped a four-game losing streak Sunday (beat Boston 6-5) while the Indians just dropped three in a row out in Seattle.

Over its last six games, Cleveland has not scored more than four runs. They’ve managed just 17 runs total in those six games and going back a bit further, they’ve been held to four or less in eight of the last nine games. So this sounds like a great spot for Patrick Sandoval to make his 2021 starting debut for the Angels. Sandoval has made three appearances out of the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average. Cleveland is 29th in MLB with a .209 team batting average. 

The Angels have much better hitting than the Indians as they are 5th in MLB with a .250 average. Shohei Ohtani hit the GW HR (in the top of the ninth) yesterday after Trout snapped a rare 0 for 18 slump at the plate (w/ a single). You have to figure Trout is going to start turning things around after being held hitless for five games. While Sam Hentges didn’t allow any runs his lone start thus far (last Weds vs. Cubs), he did put eight runners on base in 4 ⅔ IP. The Angels are a sharp play Monday. 8* LA Angels

10* Minnesota (7:40 ET): For the second straight series, revenge is on the mind of the Twins. Hopefully, this one goes better than the last where they dropped two of three here at home to Oakland. Previously, they’d been swept by the A’s. The same holds true here with the White Sox, who took all three games at Guaranteed Rate Field last week. While it has been a truly miserable start for Minnesota thus far and they have the worst record in all of baseball (13-25), I’m not ready to “punt” on them just yet as they’ve been more “unlucky” than “bad” in my estimation. Yesterday was their AL-leading 8th one-run loss. 

Chicago, on the other hand, is having a great start to 2021. I’ve got them #1 in the power rankings as they are 24-15 with a +61 run differential, both of which are MLB bests. But it was a tougher series than anticipated with KC over the weekend as the White Sox could only manage a split of the four games. They needed a two-run rally in the ninth to avoid a loss Sunday and over the L5 games, they’ve managed a grand total of just 14 runs. I just think that the revenge angle outweighs the respective starts to the season here. As you know, I’m a big believer in taking teams that have revenge for a prior sweep. 

Two lefties will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He was VERY lucky to get the win when he faced Minnesota last week as he gave up six runs in what turned into a wild 13-8 final. J.A. Happ will again oppose Keuchel today. Happ was even worse than Keuchel last Wednesday as he allowed nine runs in 3 ⅓ IP. However, prior to that, he hadn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start this year and his ERA/WHIP at home are 1.56/0.75. It’s all about revenge in this one and Happ has been the more consistent starter compared to Keuchel in 2021. 10* Minnesota

8* Chi Cubs (7:40 ET): The Cubs starter for Monday, Adbert Alzolay, is due a much better fate than his current 2-4 team start record. I say that based on his 0.875 WHIP in the six starts this season. Not only has he allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those six starts, but Alzolay has also struck out six or more batters each of his last five times out. He’s been opposed by some good teams/pitchers so far and hasn’t always gotten the best run support. I feel that will change tonight against last place Washington. 

The Nationals did take two of three in Arizona over the weekend, but are still only 16-20 on the year. After they and the D’backs exchanged blowouts on Friday & Saturday, it was a 3-0 shutout Sunday. That was the Nats’ 4th shutout win of 2021, but now they face an opponent that is averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. The Cubs are a much better team at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley than they are on the road. They too are off a win Sunday as they took two of three from Detroit over the weekend. 

Opposing Alzolay in this series opener will be the Cubs’ old friend Jon Lester, who was part of the 2016 team that won the World Series. Lester’s season started late due to COVID-19 and while he hasn’t looked bad, he’s facing a team here that is 9-3 vs. left-handed starters. Washington hasn’t done much scoring when Lester is on the mound (just two runs in each start), which is why his TSR is 1-2. Alzolay has a 29.3% strikeout rate, which is very good and I view him as the superior starter in this matchup. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Toronto (1:07 ET): This rematch of the 1993 World Series has seen each team win a game. The Phillies struck first with a 5-1 triumph on Friday, but then the Blue Jays returned the favor with yesterday’s 4-0 shutout. While the teams both enter Sunday with 21 wins on the season (Toronto has two fewer losses), the respective run differentials would certainly seem to indicate the home team is a lot better here. The Jays are +34 in run differential this season while the Phils are actually -2. With a surge in price, I know who I’ll be taking in today’s rubber match. 

Today’s starting pitching matchup tells a similar story to what I was describing above. Both Chase Anderson (Philadelphia) and Robbie Ray (Toronto) have 3-0 team start records in their last three starts. However, Ray has simply been better. He has posted four consecutive quality starts (33-1 KW ratio!) with a 0.911 WHIP in the last three. Ray has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Home runs have been his lone issue so far, but the Phillies lineup he’ll be facing Sunday may be without Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorious. That’s a huge break for Ray and the Jays. 

Anderson, who posted a 7.22 ERA last season pitching for Toronto, has a 5.23 ERA for Philadelphia this season. That 2021 ERA is two full points higher than Ray’s. His WHIP is much higher the L3 starts compared to Ray and on the road Anderson has struggled with a 7.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s yet to go more than five innings in any start. The Phillies are 12-27 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons and Toronto is 8-2 vs. the NL this season. 8* Toronto

10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): Well, it was a “swing and a miss” on the Twins yesterday as they fell to 0-4 this season against the A’s. The series opener wasn’t close as Oakland homered four times en route to an easy 6-1 win. But that result and the entire season series aside, I still feel both of these teams’ records are misleading. I’ll be rehashing much of yday’s analysis here and Friday’s game actually only strengthens my belief that Minnesota is going to (finally) get its revenge today. Having a better starter on the mound today (compared to yday) is definitely a bonus. 

The Twins went just 1 for 6 with RISP yesterday and left seven men on base. Lack of clutch hitting has really hurt them this season and so has an extremely unfortunate 0-7 record in extra inning games. The result is MLB’s worst record at 12-24. But, as I said in yday’s analysis, I don’t think for a second that this club is as bad as its record. Coming into this series, their YTD run differential wasn’t that far off from the A’s, who continue to lead the AL West thanks to a 13-game win streak last month (that included a sweep of the Twins). 

But two of the three wins in that previous series with Minnesota were by just one run. Jose Berrios started one of those one-run losses for the Twins and he held the A’s to one run in five innings. He’s now coming off B2B 6-inning outings. Berrios has never allowed more than 4 ER this season and five of his seven starts have seen him give up 2 ER or less. Cole Irvin starts today for the A’s and while he’s been better over his L5 starts, he did allow a pair of home runs his last time out. It speaks volumes that the oddsmakers have a last place team favored on the money line against a first place team. 10* Minnesota

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Cardinals are coming off a very hard-fought series with the Brewers where they were able to take two of three, despite not scoring many runs. They won 2-0 Thursday and that was after just nine hits in the first two games, one of which was a highly misleading 6-1 final (they scored five runs in the top of the 11th in that one). While currently tied for the most wins in MLB (23), I don’t think they can continue to succeed this way and it's a tough matchup on Friday in San Diego as they must deal with Joe Musgrove in the series opener. 

Back on April 9th in Texas, Musgrove tossed the first no-hitter in Padres’ history. At the time, it was a 28-inning scoreless streak for him dating back to the end of last season. Things have seemingly “leveled off” considerably for Musgrove since the no-no, but he definitely deserves better than a 3-4 team start record on the year when you consider his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (0.846). All of Musgrove’s last three starts have come against either the Giants or the Dodgers, perhaps the two best teams in the National League. Tonight, at home, should be a more favorable matchup. 

San Diego came into the 2021 season with very lofty expectations. Their 21-17 record could be better, but they have outscored opponents by 27 runs. Thursday being an off-day gives them an edge here and I see the lineup “getting to” Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo, who has allowed three homers in his two previous outings. No team is giving up fewer runs per game than the Padres (just 3.3) and their record at home (shockingly sub-.500) is due to improve. 8* San Diego

9* Run Line Minnesota (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Twins +1.5. If the line were to shift and the +1.5 is no longer an option, still take the Twins on the money line here. This is a big-time revenge spot for them, having been swept by the A’s last month in Oakland. Two of the three losses were by one run (1-0 and 13-12) and in the one, they had the A’s “on the ropes” before making two costly errors in the 10th inning. At the time, the A’s were in the midst of their 13-game win streak. But that’s over now and the team is just 10-16 this season outside of that win streak.

There’s a lot of head-scratching right now as to why Minnesota has the worst win percentage in all of MLB (.343). Basically, it boils down lack of clutch hitting, poor bullpen performance and a very unlucky 0-7 record in extra inning games. They were just swept by the first place White Sox (maybe the best team in MLB?) and have dropped seven of eight overall. I do not think for a second the Twins are as bad as their record and certainly they’ll be moving past both the Tigers & Royals in the AL Central sometime soon. The Twins’ YTD run differential (-15) isn’t all that different from the A’s (-13), who actually LEAD the AL West. 

Therefore, Oakland’s record is just as misleading as Minnesota’s is and this is a great time to call for “course correction” in both instances. I went against the A’s Thursday as they were soundly beaten (8-1) in the series finale at Fenway Park. Key to Oakland’s success thus far has been an extremely fortunate nine one-run victories (most in MLB). Frankie Montas, who starts for them today, has a 5-2 TSR even though his ERA is 5.50. The A’s offense has produced four runs or fewer in eight of the last nine games. So look for Twins’ starter Matt Shoemaker to build off the five shutout innings he threw last Friday. The Twins are hitting much better than the A’s over the L7 days despite the inferior record. 9* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Boston (7:10 ET): Two first place teams wrap up a three-game series at Fenway on Thursday. While Oakland has taken the first two games, it is them that I’m more skeptical of at this point of the season. Nobody saw Boston leading the AL East, but the A’s have a -6 run differential this season and somehow lead the West. Compare that to second place Houston (+44) or even the Red Sox (+29). Thus, I see the A’s “falling off” a bit in the coming weeks. The reason they have the most wins in all of MLB (23) right now is because they won 13 in a row last month. Outside that win streak, their record is 10-15. 

This is just the second three-game losing streak for Boston in 2021. The first is when they began 0-3. They proceeded to win 22 of their next 35 games after that. Puzzling is that the Red Sox are just 10-11 at home. They average 5.2 rpg here and have outscored the opposition. Last night was a frustrating one at the plate as they were 1 for 11 w/ RISP and the top two hitters (Xavier Bogaerts and Rafael Devers) each left five men on base. After scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series, I look for MLB’s highest scoring offense to “break out” Thursday night and end Sean Manaea’s six start unbeaten streak.

Manaea almost threw a no-hitter his last time out as the A’s righty gave up only one run on two hits in 7 ⅔ IP. He finished with 11 strikeouts and it was the sixth straight time the team won with him on the mound. But Manaea has a 6.84 ERA in five previous starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox counter with Garrett Richards, who has looked A LOT sharper his L3 outings after a rough start to the year. In those L3 starts, Richards is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. 10* Boston

8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves can’t seem to solve the Blue Jays as they are now 0-5 head to head this season after a 4-1 loss on Wednesday. I had the Braves last night and for the second time in a row, they jumped out to an early lead. But once again the late innings proved problematic as Teoscar Hernandez homered twice for Toronto. At least I still cashed the Under in the game. Today, I believe the Braves do get their revenge as they face the Jays for the final time in 2021.

Atlanta has struggled in day games this season (5-8), but they are 45-29 in them the L3 seasons. This early start time sees Charlie Morton getting the nod as he looks to bounce back from an awful outing that was rather atypical. A passed ball (not Morton’s fault, obviously) opened the door for him to six unearned runs in the first innings vs. Philadelphia last Friday. The start before that saw Morton receive a no-decision in Toronto after allowing four runs in 5 ⅓. Remember this time, it’s played under NL rules, so he’ll be facing a weaker Blue Jays lineup, one that is only 4-13 when scoring four runs or less. 

Also off a poor start is Toronto’s Ross Stripling. He is winless in four starts this year with a 6.61 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. Stripling has yet to go longer than five innings. His last time out saw him charged with three runs in 3 ⅔ IP and take a 10-2 loss against Houston. The team (obviously) won when Stripling started against the Braves on 5/2, but that was at home. It’s revenge time for the Braves on Thursday. 8* Atlanta

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yesterday, I went 3 for 3 with MLB sides - all of the teams I took had revenge (for a previous series sweep) against their respective opponents. That is still the case here for Atlanta. The Braves got swept in Toronto two weeks ago, then also lost to them yesterday by a score of 5-3. While the revenge angle did not play out Tuesday night, it probably should have as the Braves led 3-2 going into the eighth inning. But a costly mistake in the field opened the door for the Blue Jays to score three times in the eighth. I don’t see the home team losing again though, and will back them in this spot. 

Atlanta leads all of MLB with 32 runs scored in the first inning this season. So they are getting out to good starts. Today they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has given up four runs in two of his last three starts. None of the last three starts have gone longer than five innings either. This will be a battle of southpaws as the Braves send out their own lefty, Max Fried, to the bump Wednesday. After spending some time on the DL, Fried looked a lot better his last time out, giving up only one run in five innings as the Braves beat the Nationals 5-3.

It really doesn’t make much sense to see Atlanta struggling so much against Toronto. It’s not as if the Blue Jays are a significantly better ballclub. Typically, the Braves are pretty strong at home (81-53 since 2019). This will be Toronto’s ninth straight road game. The key here is holding the Blue Jays under five runs as they are only 3-13 when scoring four or less. I think Fried will do that and additionally the Braves are 62-29 their L91 as a home favorite. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Blue Jays/Braves (7:20 ET): Toronto has not been a fun opponent for Atlanta as the Jays are now 4-0 in the season series. Yesterday saw them come from behind to win 5-3. That’s a game the Braves probably feel they “should have” won considering they held a 3-2 lead going into the eighth, but a miscue in the field opened the door for the Toronto rally. Look for tonight’s game to feature fewer runs scored than last night as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Max Fried. 

Atlanta does not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In games where they face a LH starter, they are hitting just .219 with 4.1 runs per game scored. Ryu is considered to be Toronto’s ace, though he hasn’t been all that great of late. He got plenty of run support his last time out in a 10-4 win over Baltimore. But in four of Ryu’s first five starts this season, the Blue Jays scored three or fewer runs. This is a NL park, so that means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Thus, it’s an easier lineup that Ryu will be facing than when he faces a typical American League lineup with the DH. 

Though they did win Tuesday, playing without the DH ended a 5-0 Over run for Toronto. They did all of their scoring in two innings, getting two in the sixth, then three in the eighth. Max Fried gets the start today for Atlanta. Like Ryu, Fried had a successful return from the DL his last time out as he allowed just one run in five innings. As I said when I (successfully) played the Under in Atlanta’s game Sunday, the amount of overall scoring at Truist Park is due to go down. 8* Under Blue Jays/Braves

10* Under Mariners/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Though Seattle saw every game in its previous series (at Texas) go Over the total and the Dodgers are 7-1 Over their last eight, look for this Interleague matchup to be low-scoring and stay Under the total. I say that based on the logistics of the matchup. Seattle, an American League team, is only hitting .205 its L7 games and now they lose the DH because the game is at Dodgers Stadium (NL rules here). The Dodgers’ previous two series were at Wrigley and Angels Stadium (where they got the benefit of the DH). 

Walker Buehler had an 11-2 team start record for the Dodgers last season. This year, his TSR is only 3-3 but he’s still pitched quite well. In fact, he’s got a lower WHIP (0.938) compared to 2020 and his ERA (3.13) isn’t all that bad either. Only one time in his six starts this season has Buehler allowed more than two runs. That was against the Reds, who are among the highest scoring teams in baseball. Seattle was no-hit recently and has been held to three runs or less in half of the L10 games. 

Yusei Kikuchi goes for the Mariners on Tuesday. Facing the Dodgers isn’t easy, but LA did score just one run on Sunday, a game they finished with just four hits. The Dodgers have scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Kikuchi has gone seven innings each of his last two starts and allowed just three runs (all in the last one) on six hits. While I am expecting a third straight quality start here from Kikuchi, the likelihood of the Dodgers winning this game is very strong (look at the money line) and that means we probably avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, a bonus when you’ve got the Under. 10* Under Mariners/Dodgers

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Tigers +1.5. Detroit is obviously not a good team, but they are off a win (7-3 over Minnesota on Saturday) and facing a Royals team that’s lost eight in a row in spectacularly bad fashion (-37 run differential). The Tigers have revenge here for a four-game sweep at the hands of the Royals that took place here at Comerica Park a couple weeks ago. Kansas City has won just two games since that sweep and won’t prevail here by more than a run. 

The revenge angle is just one reason I’m taking the Tigers tonight. Another is they are starting Matthew Boyd, arguably their best pitcher. As you’d expect, Boyd hasn’t had much good luck this season as his team start record is 2-4 despite a 2.27 ERA and 0.925 WHIP. Each of his first five starts saw him go at least 5 ⅔ innings while giving up 3 ER or less. He hasn’t started a game since 4/29 when he left due to left knee tendinitis after facing just seven batters. His last turn in the rotation was skipped. I expect Boyd to come out and pitch well here.

The last time Boyd faced the Royals was 4/24 and he allowed just two runs (one unearned) and three hits in 8 IP. The Tigers lost that game 2-1, so you can see the benefit of playing the RL right there. Once again starting opposite Boyd will be Brady Singer. He went seven innings and allowed just the one run in that 4/24 matchup. His YTD numbers are close to Boyd’s, but slightly worse. There’s also no sugarcoating how bad KC has been lately with just four total runs scored in their L4 games. Two of the four wins in the previous series were by one run. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

9* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Another revenge play here to complete the trifecta as the Yankees were swept at home by the Rays last month. But things have turned around since then for the team wearing pinstripes. They’ve gone 13-6 their L19 games including a pair of dramatic wins over the Nationals this past weekend. Personally, I never believed there was any reason to “panic” in the Bronx as the preseason favorites to win the AL East are among the league leaders in the fewest number of runs per game allowed. 

As was the case for the Yankees, Monday was an off-day for Tampa Bay. They needed it considering they’d just played 17 consecutive days (went 9-8). Though they really seem to have the Yankees number (18-5 L23 meetings), I still have the Rays ranked fourth in the division. They haven’t been hitting much recently with three of the last five games seeing them record four or fewer hits. At home, they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game with a team batting average of only .210. That won’t cut it.

Jordan Montgomery goes here for the Yanks, hoping for better results than the last time he faced TB. He gave up four runs in a 6-3 loss in that previous series. But, the only time the Yankees beat the Rays this season, Montgomery was the starter (back on 4/11). He’s allowed just eight runs in his L3 starts. Luis Patino will start this game for the Rays, likely serving as more of a “opener” as he went just 2 ⅔ in his only previous “official” start. I look for the Yankees to start turning the tide in this AL East rivalry. 9* NY Yankees

9* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): The Pirates are 0-4 against the Reds so far this season and were dealt a humiliating 14-1 defeat in yesterday’s series opener. The Bucs have actually been outscored 44-9 in the four losses to the Reds and have lost eight straight times to them going back to 2020. But you’ll notice they are favored tonight, something that hasn’t been the case in any of the previous matchups. They seem to have a decided edge in the starting pitching matchup and I’ll call for them to gain some revenge. 

JT Brubaker gets the baseball for Pittsburgh in hopes of snapping this miserable run against the Reds. Though his team start record is 1-3, Brubaker has a 27-3 KW ratio his L4 starts. All three walks came his last time out when he and the Pirates were big underdogs against San Diego. All six starts this season have seen Brubaker allowed 3 ER or less and he’s got a 1.93 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cincy. The last one was on April 5th and he allowed just one run on three hits. I expect Brubaker to pitch well in this spot. 

Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman does NOT have particularly inspiring numbers coming into tonight’s start, especially on the road. Last time out he was charged with four runs in 2 ⅓ IP as the Reds lost 9-0 at home to the White Sox. Only one time has he lasted longer than five innings. Hoffman has started against the Pirates two times previous to this, both when he was with the Rockies, and his ERA is 10.13. He has a 1.801 WHIP in his two road starts this year and the Reds are hitting only .216 away from home. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): This worked yesterday, so I’m going with it again. As I said in the analysis for Sunday, an odd trend has developed when the Red Sox face the Orioles this season. The road team is now 9-0! Boston won yesterday, 4-3, to improve its record to 6-0 at Camden Yards. But by taking the run line (+1.5), I was a winner with Baltimore. I’ll do the same again today as the O’s look to avoid a four-game sweep at home. Their bizarre home vs. road dichotomy extends beyond facing Boston. They are 11-6 on the road, but only 4-13 at home. Eventually, that’s going to “even out” (a bit).

Only one time this season has Baltimore dropped four in a row. In the hopes of avoiding matching that streak, they will hand the baseball to Jorge Lopez on Monday. Though he hasn’t gone more than five innings, Lopez has allowed three runs or less in four consecutive starts. Baltimore is 2-2 in those games. That his worst start of the year came against the Red Sox is a little worrisome, but this time around, look for Lopez to pitch better.

Starting for Boston will be Martin Perez. He’s winless in six starts with a 3-3 TSR. Two of the three times the Red Sox have won with him on the mound, the margin of victory ended up being just one run. Again, by taking the run line, such a result would be sufficient here. The last time Perez started happened to be the last time Boston lost and that was to the woeful Tigers. Look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss tonight and possibly even avoid the sweep. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over five straight times when playing each other, however yesterday’s 8-7 final was a highly misleading score as baseball’s “new” extra inning rules provided for a lot of fireworks in the added frames. Atlanta rallied for the win, but it took two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it at 3-3. After no scoring in the 10th, each team put a run on the board in the 11th. Then came the 12th where the Phillies scored three times only for the Braves to score four and win the game in dramatic fashion. 

With two strong starting pitchers on the mound, I look for tonight’s game to see a lot less runs scored. For Philadelphia, it’s Aaron Nola, who has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts. The Phillies are 5-2 in Nola starts and he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts his last time out. The Over is 3-0 his L3 starts, but not because of him as his WHIP is 1.00 during that time. For the year, you’re looking at a 2.89 ERA and 0.985 WHIP.

Atlanta turns to Huascar Ynoa, who happens to have the lowest ERA (2.43) in the rotation. This despite him only having a spot due to an injury to Mike Soroka. The only run allowed by Ynoa in his last two starts was unearned and he’s allowed only eight in 12 ⅓ IP. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season and has a 0.90 WHIP. Braves’ home games have been pretty high-scoring so far, averaging 11.1 runs per game (!), but that number will assuredly start to drop and I’m on the Under here. 10* Under Phillies/Braves

8* Run Line Baltimore (1:05 ET): An odd trend has developed when the Red Sox play the Orioles. The road team has won all eight of this season’s meetings! Boston now holds the 5-3 overall head to head edge after winning 11-6 here at Camden Yards on Saturday. Perhaps we should not be all that shocked by the aforementioned trend considering it’s right in line with Baltimore’s overall play this season. The O’s are tied for the most road wins (11) in all of baseball, but are just 4-12 at home. From the “just due” department, I give you a play on Baltimore today. Please note that I’m taking them on the run line (+1.5). 

I certainly did not expect to see Boston leading the AL East this season. But they are out in front with a 21-13 record. They are 11-4 on the road, including 6-1 as a -125 to -175 favorite. But can they keep this up? Over the L7 games, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.1 runs per game. Their offense continues to “bail them out,” but it just doesn’t seem like a sustainable blueprint for success. They are actually just 2-6 their L8 games if the opponent surrendered five or more runs the previous game. That is the case here. 

None of the previous eight head to head matchups between these teams were decided by one run. So I think we’re due for one of those today. Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the bump. He’s still in search of his 1st win, but is coming off his best start yet where he held Seattle to one run on two hits (6 IP). Boston’s Nick Pivetta had his worst start of 2021 come against the Orioles when he allowed four runs on April 11th. That was another game where the offense bailed the Red Sox out (won 14-9), but that can only happen so many times. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Over Rays/Athletics (4:07 ET): These teams have met five times this season and none of the five games have seen more than seven total runs scored. Thus, the Under has gone 5-0. Four of the five games have seen five or fewer runs scored with three seeing three or less. Yesterday was a 2-1 Oakland victory as they are now ahead 3-2 in the season series with Tampa Bay. Despite so much evidence to the contrary, I’m going with the Over here as the two teams are due to put some runs on the board. 

It’s not just this season. The Under is 11-2 in the L13 games between the Rays and A’s. But Oakland had gone Over in five of six games before yesterday’s series opener. A big reason for that is they allowed eight or more runs in three of the games. Frankie Montas, who gets the starting nod Saturday, saw his last start go Over. Though that was a 5-4 A’s victory. There have been two times this year that Montas has allowed 6+ runs while lasting four innings or less. Here he’ll be facing a TB lineup that - despite only three hits yday - is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road. 

The Rays’ week began with a four-game sweep of the Angels out in Los Angeles. They scored at least seven runs in three of those wins. So I think they’ll do better at the plate today. As for Oakland’s hitters, they’ll face Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his past three starts. There’s no denying that it’s been a strong start to 2021 for Glasnow, but there was a start vs. Toronto where he allowed five runs. The Over is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five as a road favorite. 10* Over Rays/Athletics

8* Run Line San Francisco (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. Despite leading the NL West with a 19-13 record, the Giants don’t seem to be getting the requisite amount of respect they deserve. This division was supposed to be a “two-horse” race between the Dodgers and Padres, but thanks to excellent pitching, the Giants are up on both of those teams. They beat the Padres 5-4 yesterday and are now 4-3 against them this season. Four of the seven games have been decided by one run and in a game that isn’t likely to have many runs, I’ll take the +1.5 Saturday. 

While they had only four hits last night, the Giants jumped out to a 4-0 lead and all of the Padres' scoring was confined to one inning. San Francisco is now 11-3 at home and that’s easily the best such mark in baseball right now. It’s a dominant 11-3 too; the Giants are outscoring the opposition by nearly two full runs per game here and allowing an opposing batting average of .177! Kevin Gausman will get the starting nod today and he’s unbeaten in six starts with a 2.04 ERA and 0.882 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of those six starts. 

Joe Musgrove, who will go for the Padres Saturday, did throw a no-hitter on April 9th vs. Texas. But he’s seen his ERA rise each of the four starts since, three of which saw him last five innings or less. The last one was against Gausman and the Giants. The Padres lost that game 7-1 with Musgrove giving up six of the runs last Sunday. Meanwhile, the only run allowed in six innings by Gausman was on a solo HR. The Giants are 9-2 in day games as well. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians impressed me yesterday when they finished off a four-game sweep at Kansas City. They now lead the AL Central with a 17-13 record and have won five straight overall. As per usual, pitching is carrying this team as they’ve posted two shutouts during the five-game win streak, including yday’s 4-0 win. A Cincinnati team that has scored only one run in its last two games (and it came in extra innings) isn’t likely to turn things around at the plate and for the second time today I’ll look to fade the visiting National League team in an Interleague matchup. 

The Reds got off to a fast start, but now sit a game below .500 (14-15) on the season. They have not been particularly good on the road where they are 4-8 with just 2.9 runs per game scored. Troubling is the fact they are giving up 5.2 runs per game overall as the bullpen isn’t very good. While they did beat the White Sox Wednesday in extra innings, 1-0, the Reds gave up a total of 21 runs the previous two games and have been shut out three times in the L10 games. Two of those shutout losses were by eight runs or more. 

Zach Plesac doesn’t have the greatest ERA (4.78) for Cleveland, but his WHIP (1.187) tells a bit of a different story. He’s faced the White Sox three times already and the third time was the charm as he shut them out for 5 ⅔ innings Sunday in a 5-0 win. Plesac won’t have to face Joey Votto, who is injured. Wade Miley goes for the Reds and his worst start of 2021 came against Cleveland when he allowed two home runs in a 6-3 loss. Now he’s got to pitch in an American League park. The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games and six of the last ten. 8* Cleveland

7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Both the Braves and Phillies are off to great starts this week. Each swept its previous opponent and now are set to renew pleasantries. This is already the third series between the NL East rivals this season. The Phillies swept the first (in Philly) before the Braves nearly returned the favor, taking two of three here at home (lost the last game). It will be full capacity at Truist Park this weekend as Atlanta is off a six-game road trip where they were swept by Toronto and then swept the Nationals. The Phillies are coming off a seven-game home stand, which ended with four straight wins over the Brewers. 

I like the Braves here as Philly has not been good on the road. The Phils are just 4-9 away from the City of Brotherly Love and getting outscored by two full runs per game! They turn to Zach Eflin for Friday’s opener and he has a 6.39 ERA on the road so far. Alarming is the number of hits Eflin has allowed as he’s given up 19 in just the last two starts alone. He’s allowed at least seven hits in five consecutive starts. This will be the third time Eflin has faced Atlanta this season and true to his team’s form, the home game was a win while the road game was a loss. Though the Phils are 17-15, they have a -12 run differential. 

The Braves gave up just six runs against the Nationals and hope Charlie Morton can continue the string of strong efforts on the mound. Morton, like Eflin, has struggled a bit of late. This will be his third time starting against the Phillies and of course, the home game resulted in a win while the road game was a loss. At home, Morton held them to one run in six innings. Atlanta is the stronger offensive team and that should propel them to victory tonight. 7* Atlanta

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees failed to sweep the Astros yesterday, instead losing 7-4, but I don’t think there’s any denying the fact that the team wearing pinstripes has turned things around of late. The Bronx Bombers are 10-4 their L14 games and were in position to sweep the last series as they led the Astros 3-2 before uncharacteristically giving up five runs across the final two innings. No team in the American League is giving up fewer runs per game than are the Yanks (3.5) and I like them to bounce back with a win today in the opener of a three-game set with Washington. 

This being an interleague series, the Nationals get to use the DH. But they might need more than that after going 1 for 21 with runners in scoring position in the last series, which saw them get swept at home by the Braves. They were 1 for 12 w/ RISP yday alone. It’s not been a great start to the season for the Nats, who are 12-15 and in last place in the NL East. They have the 4th worst run differential (-22) in all of baseball and second worst in the National League. It certainly doesn’t help that Friday starter Patrick Corbin has an 8.10 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this year. He’s been particularly bad on the road.

For the Yankees, Friday starter Jameson Taillon has been solid at home where he’s got a 2.54 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.2 runs per game here at Yankee Stadium while batting .193. So, again, the addition of a DH to their lineup is not necessarily a “panacea” for Washington here. Corbin has been better after getting rocked each of his first two starts, but he still has just as many walks as strikeouts in his L2 outings and he’s allowed seven home runs already. The Yankees are 90-43 at home the L3 seasons. 7* NY Yankees

10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): Yesterday marked a season-first for Cleveland as they finally won a one-run game. They’d previously been 0-4 in such affairs and were the only team in MLB yet to win one. The 5-4 win yday enabled the Tribe to pull into a three-way tie (w/ the Royals and White Sox) atop the AL Central (all teams 16-13). A discrepancy in performance in one-run games was a big reason the Royals (6-2 in one-run games) came into this series with a three-game lead over the Indians, but that’s now gone. However, I do see KC avoiding the dreaded four-game sweep at home due to who they’ll have on the mound Thursday afternoon. 

In his 11th year with the club, left-hander Danny Duffy is having perhaps his best season for the Royals. He’s 4-1 w/ a microscopic 0.60 ERA and 0.967 WHIP. Some have credited an increased velocity on his fastball as the reason we’re seeing these results. Whatever the reason, Duffy has allowed just five total runs so far in 30 IP. He’s allowed four or fewer hits in four of the five starts. His very first start of 2021 was against Cleveland and he allowed only two hits in six shutout innings. 

Even though they were facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, the Royals did jump out to a 4-0 lead in yesterday’s game. A three-run sixth then closed the gap for Cleveland, who then got homers from Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor (in the 8th and 9th respectively) to “steal” the game. Kansas City actually outhit the Tribe 9-6. After giving up a grand slam in his last outing, Thursday’s starter for Cleveland (Triston McKenzie) is still winless (in four starts) and has a 7.20 ERA/1.733 WHIP this season. He walked the bases loaded before giving up that GS to the White Sox. McKenzie has yet to make it past the fifth inning. I like the pitching matchup from KC’s perspective and home teams don’t get swept in four game series very often. 10* Kansas City

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brewers have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series (both by one run). But despite the losing streak, this remains a quality ballclub and my favorite to win the NL Central this year. While it’s true they have a negative YTD run differential, that’s largely a byproduct of one bad game (Sunday’s 16-4 loss to the Dodgers). The Brew Crew have been getting outstanding starting pitching thus far and I expect that to be the case tonight when they send Freddy Peralta to the mound.

Peralta is unbeaten in five starts (3-0) with a 4-1 TSR. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and is coming off an incredibly impressive outing where he held the Dodgers to just one hit (a solo HR) in six innings last Friday. Peralta has allowed just 12 hits so far (in 26 IP) and has 39 strikeouts. Despite losing each of the L2 days, the Brewers are still 9-5 on the road where they are outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. They were also 8-2 off a loss coming into this series. 

The Phillies lead the NL East right now, but that’s not saying much as their WL record is 15-15 and they have a -15 run differential. They come into today batting just .216 the L7 games. I don’t expect much out of starter Chase Anderson, who has a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Phils are just 1-4 with Anderson on the mound this season and have yet to score more than four runs in any of those five starts. Anderson did pick up a win his last time out, but that was against the light-hitting Mets. 10* Milwaukee

8* Seattle (3:40 ET): Because Baltimore is 10-6 in road games this season and has its best starter (John Means) going this afternoon, we’re able to grab a fairly cheap price on the opposition. I say “go for it” as the Mariners won 5-2 yesterday and I am unconvinced Means alone can carry the Orioles to victory here. Despite the surprisingly good record in road games so far, the O’s project to be a pretty lousy team in 2021 and should lose 90+ games. I think now is a good time to fade, before the bottom drops out. 

Seattle hasn’t exactly been a great offensive team thus far. So opposite Means, they’ll need a good start today from Yusei Kikuchi. Fortunately, Kikuchi looked great his last time out as he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings. He’d struggled some in the two starts before that, but has gone 6+ innings while allowing 3 ER or less three times this season. Baltimore has faced Kikuchi only one time previous to this. It was 2019 and Kikuchi pitched well (3 ER allowed in 6 IP) in what turned out to be a 13-3 win. 

The Mariners have now won four of six following yesterday’s 5-2 victory. One situation they have particularly excelled in this season is day games where their record is 10-3. Key here is that I don’t believe Baltimore is going to score many runs. They are hitting .218 in games vs. LH starters. While it’s unlikely Seattle scores a ton of runs today, they have already won a game against Means this season when they beat the Orioles 4-3 at Camden Yards on 4/13. The three runs allowed by Means in that start are a season-high. 8* Seattle

6* Oakland (4:10 ET): Throw away that 13-game win streak and the A’s are only 3-12 in the rest of their games this season. They’ve been outscored and are on the verge of being swept here (at home) by lowly Baltimore. I made the mistake of backing them yesterday when some dreadful play in the field led to the Orioles scoring six times in the top of the third. Down 8-0 going into the bottom half of the sixth, the A’s were able to cut the lead in half, but it still ended up being an 8-4 loss on Saturday. While yesterday’s performance wasn’t exactly “inspiring,” I do think the home team bounces back today. 

We’re not likely to see a repeat of yesterday’s Oakland fielding miscues as it was two errors and two wild pitches (all in the third) that opened the door for Baltimore to jump out to that 6-0 lead. Another boon is that the A’s look to have a significant edge in today’s starting pitching matchup. Sean Manaea has been on a real roll of late, winning each of his L3 starts while posting a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team has won the last four times he’s taken the mound with Manaea allowing just four runs in 24 innings. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all four starts. 

Baltimore starter Bruce Zimmerman is trending in the opposite direction. He’s 0-3 his L3 starts with a 6.07 ERA and 2.024 WHIP. The team has lost each of the last four times he’s taken the mound. Zimmerman has already allowed 6 HR this season and doesn’t have many strikeouts either (just 18 in 25 ⅓ IP). He allowed four runs on nine hits his last time out, lasting only 3 ⅓ in a 5-1 loss to the Yankees. I just can’t see the A’s being swept this weekend nor can I see Baltimore’s success on the road continuing. 6* Oakland

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs at +1.5. The Cubs didn’t need many runs to defeat the Reds yesterday. After giving up two in the bottom of the first, they didn’t allow any more the rest of the game and ended up winning 3-2 thanks to Nick Hoerner’s game-winning single in the sixth. The Cubs’ bullpen certainly did its job on Saturday. While this hasn’t been a good road team in 2021, I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

Throw away a bad start at Pittsburgh on 4/11 and the Cubs’ Trevor Williams has done a pretty good job this season. In his other four outings, Sunday’s starter has gone at least five innings while allowing no more than two runs. I know the Reds scored a lot of runs at home in the early going (of the season), but they’ve (predictably) slowed down considerably. Over the L10 games, the Reds are batting a collective .226 and they had only four hits after the first inning yesterday. Williams, who is 6-3 in his career vs. Cincinnati, can get the job done today. 

The Reds will give the baseball to Tyler Mahle for this series finale. Mahle is off to a good start, but let’s not discount how poor the team’s bullpen has been in ‘21. Going into yday’s game, Reds’ relievers had combined for a 6.49 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home. That group is a big reason why the team has been outscored by 16 runs over its L10 games. Similar to the predictable Reds’ offensive decline, the Cubs’ bats are due to improve. They’ve scored 6+ runs six times in the L14 games. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs

7* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s had that 13-game win streak, but other than that are just 3-11 this season. They started 0-6 and have now lost four of six following last night’s 3-2 defeat at the hands of Baltimore, which was the 1st time the A’s dropped a home game to the O’s since 2017! Baltimore, who is not expected to be good this season, makes for prime fade material here in my opinion. Since starting 3-0, they’ve yet to win three in a row again. It won’t happen here. 

While only 4-10 at home, the Orioles are a surprising 8-4 on the road. They’re still in last place in the AL East mind you. Each of the L2 days have seen them prevail by one run, including an extra inning win over the Yankees on Thursday. They are 2-2 vs. Oakland in 2021, however both wins were with John Means as the starter. Matt Harvey will get the baseball on Saturday and he did not pitch in last weekend’s series with the A’s. He is off a shocking quality start against the Yankees on Monday, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that here. 

Jesus Luzardo did make a start in last weekend’s series at Camden Yards and despite it being a quality one, he came out on the wrong end against Means. Two home runs are what cost Luzardo in that outing. But he’s still allowed just three runs in his last two starts (12 IP) and should get more run support this time around. Oakland had a chance to tie - or even win - the game last night as they had two runners on in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out. Look for them to improve to 9-3 in day games. 7* Oakland

7* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET): When taking the White Sox +1.5 last night, I did caution they were at a bit of a disadvantage. Not just facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, but also due to the fact they played a doubleheader Thursday (swept the Tigers) while the Indians had an off day. Turns out that I should have heeded my own advice. The Sox lost 5-3 Friday, although it should be pointed out that they did outhit Cleveland (8-5) in the game. Look for them to turn the tables this afternoon as Saturday’s pitching matchup is slanted much more in their favor. 

Even with yesterday’s loss, the White Sox still have one of the best run differentials (+29) in baseball. Only the Dodgers (+34) and Astros (+31) have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season. Whereas Cleveland came into this series off a 10-2 loss (to Minnesota) on Wednesday, Chicago had won six of seven including the impressive sweep of a doubleheader on Thursday where they allowed just one total run. Speaking of strong pitching, we’ve got Lance Lynn starting today for the home team. He has a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP through three starts. 

Surprisingly, the White Sox have gone just 1-2 in those three Lynn starts. He obviously deserves better. After tossing a complete game shutout on 4/18 vs. Kansas City (with 11 strikeouts), Lynn was a hard-luck loser to this Cleveland team a week later. He allowed just two runs and five hits (went six innings) and had 10 more strikeouts. Lynn has been out the L2 weeks (strained trapezius), but should be fine here as he has a 1.41 ERA in five career starts vs. Cleveland. The White Sox are 5-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and the Indians are not a particularly strong offensive team. Triston McKenzie has a 1.615 WHIP and no wins after three starts. 7* Chi White Sox

10* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got a battle of two excellent starting pitchers in Friday’s series opener between the Angels and Mariners. Andrew Heaney goes for the Angels and he has a 0.92 WHIP in four starts. Over his L3 starts, Heaney has been particularly dominant. He’s gone a total of 17 ⅔ innings and allowed just three runs on seven hits. He also has 25 strikeouts during that time. Here, Heaney faces a Seattle lineup that managed just one run yesterday (and won!) and has been held to three runs or fewer in four of its last five ballgames. 

Chris Flexen will start for Seattle and he too has been sharp of late. He’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his four starts this season, including just two total runs in the last two starts. Last time out, he went a season-high seven innings and allowed one run on four hits vs. the Red Sox. Combined, these two starters have allowed only two home runs all season. 

The Mariners ended a four-game losing streak yesterday and avoided a sweep at Houston with a 1-0 victory. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ve had fewer than 10 hits in 9 of their last 10 games and five of them they’ve finished with four or less hits. They just .191 at home. The Angels, who have topped four runs only twice in their L10 games, aren’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball either. 10* Under Angels/Mariners

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. I admit the home team is at a bit of a disadvantage here as they played a doubleheader on Thursday while Cleveland had the day off. Chicago will also have to contend with Indians’ ace Shane Bieber in this series opener. However, it’s not like the White Sox were really tested yesterday. They swept the two games with the Tigers, winning 3-1 and 11-0. To counteract Bieber, Chicago has Dallas Keuchel starting today and they are 4-1 in his five previous five starts. 

While 14-10 and in second place in the AL Central, I’d say the White Sox are off to a pretty good start. They have the best run differential in the American League now (+31) and have won six of the last seven games. That run began with an 8-5 win over Cleveland on 4/20. Four times in the last 10 days, Chicago has scored eight or more runs in a game. They didn’t need many runs yesterday after allowing just one total in the two games. Keuchel should do his job today as in addition to a 2.81 ERA & 1.125 WHIP his L3 starts, he’s 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Indians. 

Cleveland is bottom four in baseball in batting average, OPS and runs scored. Keuchel, who threw six shutout innings (vs. Texas) his last time out, also helped beat this Indians team back on 4/12. The Tribe will heavily lean on Bieber tonight, but he must deal with a White Sox lineup that is #1 in all of baseball in batting average and on base percentage. Even in the Indians are victorious here, it won’t be by more than one run. I love the idea of the better team getting +1.5 at home. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line where I am backing the Royals +1.5. Similar to the play on the White Sox, I love the idea of getting the better team +1.5 in this matchup. The Royals aren’t at home, but they’ve been “road warriors” thus far (7-3 record away from home) and lead the AL Central with a 15-8 overall record. Minnesota, despite being off an easy 10-2 win in Cleveland on Wednesday, is off to one of its worst starts in years at 8-15. 

The Twins are just 3-7 in home games so far and being outscored by nearly a full run per game at Target Field. So the idea of them winning by multiple runs tonight seems highly unlikely. While Wednesday was actually the fourth time this season the Twins scored 10 or more runs in a game, they’ve also been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. Here they face Brady Singer, who has looked sharp in his three starts so far. Singer has 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. In the last two outings, both of which were KC wins, he’s allowed just one run and five hits in 13 innings. The Royals won those games despite scoring only four total runs. 

Michael Pineda goes for the Twins and he’s off his worst outing of 2021 where he allowed five runs in a loss to Pittsburgh. The Royals just beat the Pirates 9-6 on Wednesday. Pineda is 5-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Kansas City. The Royals are giving up only 2.6 runs per game on the road this year with their pitching holding opposing hitters to a .201 average. The bullpen ERA over the last six games is 0.48. KC has benefited from going 6-1 in one-run games so far, but a one-run loss here would be fine. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

7* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): Reports of the Yankees’ demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated as the club has now won five of seven, including each of the last two days here in Baltimore. Yesterday’s 7-0 shutout was powered by not only seven innings of three-hit ball by Domingo German, but also three home runs. The Yankees have belted six homers in the last two days on their way to outscoring the O’s 12-1. It should also be mentioned that only once in the L10 games has NY pitching given up more than four runs. 

The Yanks have won 40 of 52 from Baltimore, including 21 of the last 26 here at Camden Yards. That’s not really a surprise given where the two teams have been in the standings the last few seasons. But it is pretty one-sided nonetheless and it doesn’t figure to change here, or in the rest of 2021 for that matter. Jordan Montgomery will start this afternoon for the visitors as he goes for a second sharp outing at the O’s expense this season. Back on April 5th, he tossed six shutout innings against them (in the Bronx) and allowed just four hits. Baltimore has scored two runs or fewer in six of its last nine games.

Starting opposite Montgomery for a second time in 2021 will be Jorge Lopez. Back in that April 5th matchup, Lopez was tagged for four runs in 4 ⅔ innings. He’s allowed at least one HR in all four starts (six total) and has yet to pitch more than five innings. The Orioles are just 3-10 at home this season, including 0-2 when Lopez starts. Lopez has a 6.62 ERA in four career starts vs. the Yankees. 7* NY Yankees

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Yesterday was just the second loss for Oakland in their last 16 games. But considering this team still has a negative run differential on the season, I think they’re due to start “giving some back” over the coming days/weeks. The A’s haven’t lost B2B games since an 0-6 start, but I’ll call for them to do so today as they are up against Tyler Glasnow, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Rays pitching has allowed no more than three runs in any of the last four games. 

Going into the seventh inning of yesterday’s game, Tampa Bay was 0 for its last 26 with runners in scoring position. That seems rather unfathomable. But Joey Wendle snapped that streak with a two-out single and that insurance run proved to be the difference in a 4-3 victory. I think the Rays hitters are going to turn things around today against Cole Irvin, whose two wins this year were against Baltimore and Detroit (two of the AL’s worst teams). Irvin was shaky in his first two starts of 2021, which were against Houston, as he allowed four runs both times. 

The A’s have been pretty fortunate in going 5-1 in one-run games thus far. That’s the second best record in one-run games in all of baseball (KC is 6-1). They won the opener here in Tampa 2-1 on Monday despite only three hits in the game. So the offense has produced just five runs and 11 hits in two games. That sounds ideal for Glasnow, who did allow five runs his last time out, but that was despite giving up only five hits and having 10 strikeouts. In his first four starts, Glasnow allowed just two runs in 24 ⅔ IP. He has 46 K’s in 30 ⅔ IP this season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): I was stunned with what happened to the Brewers Monday (as I’m sure they were!) as they lost 8-0 in the series opener with Miami. On the mound, the Brew Crew had Corbin Burnes, who had allowed all of one run (total!) in his first four starts. Burnes allowed just one through five innings last night, but then things fell apart in the sixth when he gave up four. His teammates look to bounce back tonight with Adrian Houser getting the start. Since starting the season 1-3, Milwaukee has not dropped B2B games and I don’t think they will here. 

Interestingly, the Brewers have yet to face a left-handed starter here in 2021. That’ll change tonight when Miami sends southpaw Daniel Castano to the bump. The last time Castano pitched, I faded him and the Marlins and that turned out to be a successful bet. Castano lost to the Giants, 3-0, as he gave up all three runs in the first inning and lasted only five. In two starts this year, both against SF, Castano has only two strikeouts and four walks. That’s not impressive at all. The Brewers’ lineup had its chances last night, but left five runners stranded and each of the first three innings ended with a double play. 

Miami hitters struck out 15 times last night, so I like Houser’s chances here. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts thus far, though it should be pointed out he’s yet to last more than a full five innings. The Brewers have been getting excellent starting pitching to this point, which made last night’s result all the more shocking. The Marlins were batting a collective .192 their L7 games before last night’s win. Brewers’ opponents have scored three runs or less in 14 of 22 games this season. It’s been 10 days since Miami won B2B games. 10* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Colorado (9:45 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. The road team, off a 12-2 win over Philadelphia Sunday, won’t be lacking in motivation coming into this series at San Francisco. Not only did the Giants sweep them earlier this month, but Colorado is still looking for its first road win of the season (0-6 so far). That prior sweep did occur here in San Francisco and I even took the Giants twice. But I’ll back the Rockies in this revenge spot with the caveat that I get an additional 1.5 runs “in my back pocket.” 

Not only does Colorado have some confidence off the 12-2 win yesterday, but they’ve won four of five overall. Austin Gomber will be the starter that looks to earn the team its first road win of 2021. Gomber is off three straight quality outings, two of which were on the road. One was against the Dodgers and the other came in the prior series vs. San Francisco. Gomber actually allowed only 1 hit in 6 ⅓ innings vs. the Giants, but did walk four and ended up losing a 3-1 game. He’s had better control since and finally earned himself a win his last time out by holding Houston to just two runs on two hits in another six inning effort.

The Giants have been getting tremendous pitching this year, which is a big reason why they’ve started 14-8 and have won six of eight. Three of those six wins were shutouts. Anthony DeSclafani shut the Rockies out for six innings earlier this month and will start against them for a second time today. But he hasn’t won a decision since beating the Rockies and lasted only four innings his last time out. I realize that all the games were at Coors Field, but Colorado has scored 5+ runs in five straight games. That, along with the run line, should be enough to cash a winning ticket in this series opener. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5) 

7* Atlanta (7:10 ET): This is the second series of the season between these teams. The first saw the Braves take two of three at Wrigley Field as they won the series opener 5-2 before an exchange of 13-4 wins. Immediately following that series, the Cubs swept the Mets and then beat Milwaukee 15-2 in a series opener. At that point, the Cubbies had not only won four in a row at home, but also had scored 13+ runs in three of their last seven games overall. But they’ve lost each of the last two days (both to the Brewers at home) and were shut out 9-0 on Sunday. 

Atlanta also had a rough Sunday. They were shut out twice, losing 5-0 and 7-0 in a doubleheader vs. Arizona. Even worse is that they could only manage one hit in the two games! Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner won’t get credit for a no-hitter, as it was only a seven inning game, but a no-hitter very much happened to the Braves in Game 2 Sunday. They’d only been shutout one other time this season (prior to yday) and had won two of three since that last series with the Cubs. Let’s just chalk Sunday up as “one of those days.”

Facing Zach Davies, the Braves hitters should have a big bounce back game here. Davies, the Cubs’ starter for Monday, has an 8.80 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in four starts. The lone time he’s started on the road, Davies was charged with seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP. He also allowed four runs in four innings when he faced Atlanta. The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton today. He’s had two strong starts recently where he went six innings and allowed just one run. The last one was against the Yankees and Morton allowed only three hits. The Cubs are averaging only 2.2 runs per game and hitting a collective .197 on the road. 7* Atlanta

10* Detroit (1:10 ET): The Tigers have lost 9 of 10 and especially worrisome is the fact they’ve been held to two runs or less in each of the last eight losses. They were shut out again on Sunday, 4-0, which was their third straight loss to the Royals. But that puts Detroit in the exact same situation I found Cleveland in yesterday - trying to avoid the ignominy of being a home team swept in a four-game series. I took the Indians and they won 7-3 over the Yankees Sunday. That’s what I’m hoping for from the Tigers today. 

Helping the home team’s cause here is the fact they have Spencer Turnbull starting. His only previous start, on 4/21, happens to be the Tigers’ only win in the last nine games. Turnbull went five innings and allowed just one run on two hits against Pittsburgh. It’ll be a tougher test this time, but I should mention the fact that going into yesterday,  the Kansas City lineup was averaging only 2.8 runs per game with a .177 batting average on the road. They haven’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. 

If there was ever a time for the Tigers’ offense to wake up, it would be facing the kind of starter they’ll see today. Brad Keller will go here for KC and he brings in a 12.00 ERA/2.583 WHIP from his first four outings. Last time out marked the second time that Keller failed to escape the second inning and gave up 5+ runs. Somehow he has a 2-2 team start record, but that’s in no way indicative of how he’s pitched so far. He retired just five of the 13 batters he faced last Tuesday. Look for the Tigers to avoid the sweep. 10* Detroit.

10* LA Dodgers (7:08 ET): This is an absurdly low price on the Dodgers at home. I know they’ve struggled a bit lately, losing four of six including two of three to the Padres in this series. But they won yesterday, 5-4, thereby avoiding what would have been their first three-game losing streak of the season. This series is the first of the year that the Dodgers have lost two games. They still own the best record in all of MLB (15-6) as well as the top run differential (+33). I won’t hesitate to lay this short price with them on “Sunday Night Baseball.” 

I suppose the Padres must be respected, especially with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove has a 1.04 ERA and 0.538 WHIP through four starts, including the first no-hitter in Padres history back on April 9th. He’s allowed just three in 26 innings so far, however this will be the first time Musgrove has seen the Dodgers, whose offense will be looking to break out after collecting 12 hits on Saturday. In three career starts vs. LA, Musgrove is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA. 

The Dodgers counter with Dustin May, who has a 2.94 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in his three starts this season. May’s last start was his worst to date, but it came on the road in an unfamiliar setting (Seattle). The Dodgers are 90-35 at Chavez Ravine the L3 seasons, including 7-2 this year. Opposing teams are averaging only 2.8 runs per game here this season and San Diego has been held to three runs or fewer in five of the last eight games. They don’t have more than eight hits in any of those eight games. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Cleveland (1:10 ET): As it turns out, the “demise” of the Yankees happened to be greatly exaggerated. The Bronx Bombers have come to Cleveland this weekend and taken the first three games of a four-game set. Each game has gotten progressively closer though (and lower scoring) with the Yanks winning by scores of 6-3, 5-3 and finally 2-1 yesterday. Now it’s the Indians with some “egg on their face” as they look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home. I think the Tribe is likely to avoid the embarrassment, but just to be safe will take them +1.5 on the run line here. 

All the Yankees ended up needing yesterday was a pair of solo home runs in the 5th from Rougned Odor and Aaron Hicks as Gerrit Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a battle of aces. The starting pitching matchup for Sunday isn’t nearly as high profile, but Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie is one to keep an eye on as he has 13 strikeouts in nine innings. Unfortunately, both of his starts thus far have been team losses. But both were one-run games. Over the L2 days, every run scored by the Yankees has come via the home run ball. That would seem to be an unsustainable model of offensive production. 

Jameson Taillon toes the rubber for New York here as they go for their first four-game sweep in Cleveland in a quarter century. Taillon has a 5.40 ERA through three starts and was tagged for five runs in 3 ⅔ IP his lone outing on the road thus far. He shouldn’t expect much support here as the Yankees offense is averaging just 3.6 runs per game while batting below .210. They are 2-7 in day games this season. I don’t think the home team does any worse than a one-run loss in this situation. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): The Phillies let one slip away Friday night as they lost the series opener 5-4 here at Coors Field. They allowed the Rockies to score a run in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings to complete the comeback, with the difference being Raimel Tapia’s walk off HR. While certainly a disappointing result for a team that’s now dropped 7 of 10, Philadelphia looks to have a significant advantage in tonight’s starting pitching matchup with Aaron Nola on the bump. I’ll call for them to bounce back Saturday. 

Nola comes in sporting a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four starts. The Phillies are 3-1 with him on the mound. He’s off his best start to date, which was a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals on Sunday where he allowed just two hits and had a 10-0 KW rate. Nola has allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts and going back to last year, has done the same in 12 of his previous 15 trips to the mound. Coors Field isn’t the easiest place to pitch, but I believe Nola will handle himself just fine here. The Rockies lineup has the lowest OBP (.277) in the entire National League entering Saturday. 

Now Colorado is 7-6 at home thus far (as opposed to 0-6 on the road) and we all know their offensive production jumps here at Coors. But the problem is that the opposition also typically gets the same boost. That’s what I think will happen with the Philly hitters tonight facing Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his four starts thus far. Now Senzatela has had two quality outings here at home. But he also got roughed up twice by the Dodgers, allowing 12 runs in just six innings. The Phillies may not be the Dodgers, but they’ll get to Senzatela nonetheless and earn a measure of revenge for last night’s tough loss. 8* Philadelphia

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I like the Braves quite a bit here as they should benefit from an off-day. They went 3-2 on the recently completed road trip, taking two of three from the Cubs and then splitting with the Yankees. Now it's a matter of getting things going at home where they are only 3-4 this season. But they are 75-48 at Truist Park since the start of the 2019 season, so I wouldn’t be worried about the slow start. In fact, their lineup is producing a full 6.0 runs per game here at home.

Arizona not only played yesterday, but had to go to extra innings to defeat Cincinnati in a wild 14-11 game. That gave the D’backs a three-game sweep over a team that had previously been red hot and they’ve won four in a row overall. But I say the win streak stops tonight as I do not have a ton of faith in this ballclub, despite its 5-0 record as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are still below .500 and have to be getting a little road weary as 14 of their first 19 games have come away from home. This will be the eighth straight road game. 

Atlanta starter Huascar Ynoa does not have a win yet, but he looked very good in his lone home start. Facing Miami, he gave up just one run on three hits (in 6 IP) and had 10 strikeouts. He’s demonstrated good control thus far and you should disregard his last outing as it was windy at Wrigley Field. Arizona’s Luke Weaver may have better overall numbers than Ynoa, but on the road he has a 6.51 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. He allowed four runs in four innings (at Washington) his last time out. If Ronald Acuna Jr makes his return to the Braves lineup tonight, that would sweeten the pot even more. 10* Atlanta

8* Run Line Toronto (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. In this AL East matchup, we’ve got a pair of starting pitchers off to hot starts. Runs are likely to be at a premium in tonight’s series opener, thus the RL seems like a logical way to go. I do not see Toronto losing this game by more than a single run. They are coming off a 6-3 win in Boston on Wednesday and the pitching staff has not permitted more than four runs in any of the last five contests. 

Steven Matz will be starting for the fourth time this year for the Jays. He’s gone 3-0 so far with a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. In each start, he’s gone six innings and allowed just one run. He’s allowed only nine hits and one home run. The Toronto brass has to be thrilled with what they’ve gotten so far from Matz, who was acquired in the offseason in exchange for a trio of minor league players. The team has outscored the opposition 26-4 in the three Matz starts. 

Tampa Bay counters with Tyler Glasnow, who is off to a really hot start himself. He’s 2-0 in four starts (3-1 TSR) with a 0.73 ERA and 0.649 WHIP. Glasnow has allowed 1 ER or less in every start so far and had an outing with 14 strikeouts. The Rays are coming off a 5-1 road trip against the Yankees and Royals. The only loss came in their last game. But I see their offensive “cooling down” dramatically tonight and Toronto looks to have a big edge once this game gets to the bullpens. The Rays have lost four of five as ML favorites. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (9:45 ET): I won with Miami yesterday afternoon as they blanked the Orioles 3-0. I said “I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win” and that turned out to be correct as starter Trevor Rogers was even better than I expected. He went a career high seven innings, struck out eight and didn’t allow a single runner to get past second base. But going from facing lowly Baltimore at home to San Francisco on the road is a step up in class for the Marlins this weekend and they’re obviously NOT going to have Rogers on the mound tonight.

The Giants lost yesterday as they failed to finish what could have been a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. They’d won the first two games of that series in very different fashion, 2-0 and 10-7, before going down 6-5. After falling behind early, 3-0, the Giants rallied for four runs in the top of the seventh to take the lead. But they allowed the Phillies to tie the game in the bottom half of that inning, then win on a Andrew Knapp single in the bottom of the ninth.

While off a 3-3 trip and 6-6 overall on the road this year, the Giants now return home where they are 5-1 including 3-0 as a favorite of -125 to -175. They’ve allowed just 2.2 rpg here and will send Aaron Sanchez to the bump in search of his first win of 2021. While Sanchez has an 0-3 TSR, he has a 2.45 ERA and allowed just one run when he faced Miami last week. Daniel Castano was more fortunate when he allowed just one run in his start in last week’s series (Miami won 4-1), but I don’t see him getting much run support tonight as Starling Marte remains out of the lineup. The Giants have lost B2B games just one time so far. 8* San Francisco

7* Boston (7:10 ET): These teams have pretty similar records (Red Sox are 12-7, Mariners are 11-7), but the respective run differentials paint a much different picture as Boston is an AL-best +27 while Seattle has actually been outscored (-3) on the season. The Red Sox did have a two-game win streak snapped by Toronto here at Fenway Wednesday while Seattle had the day off. But in a battle of unbeaten starters, I’m siding with the home team. 

Surprisingly, the Red Sox are just 6-6 at Fenway thus far. It’s a 6-1 road record that’s more responsible for them being tied with Oakland for the best overall record in the American League. They are 3-0 in Nick Pivetta starts and will have him on the bump again tonight. Pivetta’s WHIP (1.636) is a little higher than what you want to see and he’s gotten plenty of run support thus far. But Seattle has never faced him and this is a lineup that’s been shutout twice in its last four games. They had just one hit in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers. 

The Mariners’ starter for this series opener will be Justin Dunn. There are some similarities to Pivetta here as Dunn has also had some control issues and has never faced tonight’s opponents. Dunn also has a 2-0 TSR. He looked good his last time out, but that was against Baltimore. It’s also difficult to look past the EIGHT walks he issued in his first start of the season. Since opening 0-3, the Red Sox are 12-4 and have lost B2B games only one time. The Mariners are just 17-40 in their L57 games at Fenway. 7* Boston

8* Miami (1:10 ET): This series got underway yesterday with Baltimore winning 7-5. For the Orioles, that was a little bit of payback for last season when they were swept by Miami, losing all four times they played. They won yday despite three errors and getting outhit. They came into the game with an 8-26 all-time record vs the Marlins, their worst win percentage against any team in either league. Obviously, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the home team bounce back here and I think they will. 

Trevor Rogers will toe the rubber here for Miami. Through three starts, he’s averaging an impressive 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s fourth best in the National League. A former 1st round draft choice (2017), Rogers has allowed 2 ER or less in all three of his starts thus far. His best outing came on April 10th when he threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Mets and finished with 10 strikeouts. He won’t have to face Anthony Santander today as the Orioles’ RF exited last night’s game with an injury. 

The Marlins are still without Starling Marte, who is perhaps their best all-around player, however I still think their lineup can get to O’s starter Bruce Zimmerman. Save for a shutout loss Sunday, the Marlins have scored at four runs in seven of the last eight games and they’ve scored six or more four times. A big key here is that the Fish are averaging 7.5 runs this season in games where they face a left-handed starter. I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win this one as Baltimore has been held to three runs or fewer eight times already. 8* Miami

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals got embarrassed at home last night, losing 12-5 to a Cardinals team they took two of three from in St. Louis last week. Interestingly enough, their two losses to the Redbirds this season have both been really ugly. (The other was 14-3). But just like they bounced back from the previous one (with a 6-0 win), I expect them to do well tonight. Neither starter has performed well yet this season, but the Cardinals’ overall inconsistency (haven’t won B2B games in 12 days) sticks out. 

Washington’s Pat Corbin has a 21.33 ERA and 3.002 WHIP after two starts. That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s only one way for those numbers to go from here. He exited after only two innings his last time out, but not before being charged with 10 runs (allowed 3 HRs). His first start wasn’t much better as he allowed six runs, albeit on just six hits. So why the endorsement for tonight? Well, St. Louis is just 1-4 this season after scoring 6+ runs the last time and they’ve been held to three runs or less in four of those games (shutout twice). 

The Nats are also 2-0 this season after giving up 10+ runs. They face Adam Wainwright, whose three starts have resulted in a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP. The lone one on the road saw him get absolutely hammered for six runs in 2 ⅔ innings. The Cardinals hit five home runs yesterday, a feat they cannot count on regularly occurring, so look for a relatively “silent night” at the plate from them and the home team to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. 10* Washington

8* Over Dodgers/Mariners (4:10 ET): Though they’ve been held to just seven runs total over the L3 games (and LOST to Mariners 4-3 yday), you’ve got to like the Dodgers chances to “break out” offensive today. They will be facing embattled Seattle starter Marco Gonzales, who has an 8.22 ERA and 1.761 WHIP this year. Despite the lack of production at the plate the L3 games, Los Angeles is still averaging 5.5 runs per game and the addition of a DH (AL park) their lineup obviously becomes more potent. 

Jose Urias will start for the Dodgers today, hoping for a better effort than what he gave his last time out. Urias allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings against Colorado last Thursday, ironically way more than he allowed when he faced the Rockies at Coors Field earlier in the month. The Dodgers still won the game, 7-5, and the Over is now 11-1 in Urias’ last 12 starts. The fewest number of runs scored by the Dodgers in any Urias start during that time is four. They’ve AVERAGED 7.5 runs in those 12 games. 

Like I said earlier, Gonzales figures to struggle facing the NL’s highest scoring offense. He was better in his last start, but that was against Baltimore. The first two starts saw him allow 12 runs in 10 ⅓ IP. He’s also already allowed six home runs. Again, facing the already loaded Dodgers lineup plus a DH is a tough task. In his only previous start here at home, Gonzales gave up three home runs. The Dodgers’ lineup has homered in every game but three this season and all but one since the first two games. 8* Over Dodgers/Mariners