8* Pittsburgh Run Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Pirates at +1.5. The Mets are a hot team right now and we backed them yesterday as they won for a seventh straight time, shutting out the White Sox 4-0. They'd previously swept Pittsburgh, who they're matched up again w/ this weekend. Last weekend's series was in Queens and while I've previously stated that recommendations on the Bucs will be "few and far between," I'm willing to take them at home here, with revenge and getting an additional run and a half. 

This seven-game win streak has the Mets within two games of .500 and certainly viable in what's going to be a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. But let's not go too far w/ the praise. I backed them yday because they were matched up w/ one of the very worst teams in all of baseball. Pittsburgh is probably the NL's 2nd worst team right now (Miami is definitely worse), but they're generally tougher to beat here at PNC Park. It's been an ugly stretch in the Steel City, that's for sure, as the Bucs come into this series having dropped 16 of 19 games since the Break. But five of those losses were by one run, including one to the Mets last weekend. 

Admittedly, things don't look that great for the home team coming into this series. Not only have they been losing and are matched up w/ a hot team that just swept them, but they've got some suspensions to deal with as a result of the brawl w/ the Reds a few days ago. There is going to be a lot of pressure here on starter Trevor Williams, but he does have a 1.80 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Mets. He was a 3-0 loser to Steven Matz last Saturday and will oppose Matz again tonight. Matz went the distance in that game for his 1st CG shutout of 2019. But he has a 6.40 ERA and 1.654 WHIP on the road and won't be as effective this time around. 8* Pittsburgh Run Line (+1.5) 

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): For the third straight series, the Cubs are not only facing an opponent from within their own division (NL Central), but one they are also battling for playoff position. The Cubbies dropped two of three in each of the previous two series and I was "lukewarm" on them in both, even going against them in Tuesday's loss to St. Louis. The reason being is that they were on the road (where they are now just 21-33 for the season). But now they're back in Wrigley (where they're 36-18) and looking for revenge after dropping 2 of 3 in Milwaukee last weekend. This time, I back the Cubs in a series opener. 

While these teams are only a game apart in the standings and scored a nearly identical number of runs over the course of the year, those two metrics do not tell the full story here. The Cubs have ALLOWED 79 fewer runs this season than have the Brewers. They are especially stingy here at the Friendly Confines where they allow just 3.8 rpg, which is 4th fewest in all of baseball. They did lose two low-scoring games at Miller Park last weekend before winning the finale 11-4. I fully anticipate the Brewers struggling to score again in this series, starting w/ today's matchup vs. lefty Jose Quintana, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. He was the starter for that 11-4 win over the Brewers last Sunday. 

Though the Cubs just dropped two of three at both Milwaukee and St. Louis, they still have a much better YTD run differential than those two division foes. In fact, the Brew Crew have actually been outscored this season in spite of a 57-53 record. They are sub-.500 on the road after dropping 2 of 3 in Oakland to start the week. The schedule makers are doing them no favors here, making them go from Oakland to Chicago w/o a day off. Starter Zach Davies has struggled in B2B starts, giving up 14 runs in just 9 IP, seven of them to the Cubs last Sunday. Look for Quintana to beat Davies for the 2nd straight time. 8* Chi Cubs

6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The last time these NL West rivals met was the start of last month, right here at Chavez Ravine. The Padres actually took the final three of that four-game series and the Dodgers' last two home games in July (both coming against the Angels) were also losses. Expect those losing streaks to come to a screeching halt tonight though as LA is a heavy favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. And for good reason. The Dodgers are still 40-14 at home this year and #1 overall in my own personal power rankings. They've won 14 of Kershaw's 18 starts as well. Truthfully, they should be much higher on the money line. Back them in this series opener. 

The Padres had dreams of contending in 2019 after signing Manny Machado in the offseason. But Machado is just one player and those dreams have since faded. The team comes into Thursday having dropped 12 of 17 games since the All-Star Break and I certainly don't think tonight's starter, Joey Lucchesi, is the one to turn this ship around. Especially facing a team like the Dodgers. Lucchesi has struggled on the road all season w/ a 6.48 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in eight starts. He's also struggled recently w/ a 5.28 ERA and 1.566 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He has a 6.75 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers.

Kershaw's resume needs little in the way of introduction as he continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game today. His season started later than normal and truthfully he initially wasn't quite as dominant as we're used to seeing. But everything is "back to normal" now w/ four consecutive quality outings where he's allowed only five runs in 25 IP. He also has 35 strikeouts during that time. As you might expect, Kershaw has dominated the Padres throughout his career, going 19-6 w/ a 2.00 ERA. He's faced them twice in 2019 and both were quality starts w/ him allowing just five runs total on 11 hits in 13 IP (15-2 KW rate). 6* LA Dodgers

8* NY Mets (2:10 ET): Somebody break up the Mets! All of a sudden, they've won six in a row and believe it or not, they're only five games back of the Wild Card. Of course, facing the White Sox helps. This is a team (Chicago, this is) that we've recommended fading numerous times over the last couple months as the have a dismal YTD run differential (now -118), which is third worst in all of MLB. Quite frankly, the Sox were very lucky to have stayed a few games within a few games of .500 for much of the season. But 2019 is "all over but the shouting" for them now. You can only beat the teams on your schedule and the Mets have taken advantage of a weak slate on this win streak of theirs. Look for them to finish off a 2nd straight sweep this afternoon!

Zach Wheeler will pitch today for New York, looking to follow up on a win his last time out where he had seven strikeouts and no walks. It was the 4th time in his last 5 starts that Wheeler gave up three runs or less. Facing a lineup this bad should certainly result in that streak continuing. Chicago is hitting just .216 in its last seven games w/ an average of only 2.1 rpg scored. The White Sox also rank 28th overall in runs scored. The Mets have done well against the American League teams on their schedule, now at 9-4 for the year.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease has really struggled since a solid big league debut back on July 3rd. His L3 starts, all occurring after the Break, have seen him go 0-3 w/ a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP. He's had a nasty penchant for giving up the "big inning" and that's cost him. Remember, theoretically, the Mets lineup is stronger now w/ a DH. Perhaps the most fraudulent thing of all about the White Sox is how they have a .500 record here at Guaranteed Rate Field despite being outscored by 1.4 rpg! They are also just 16-30 in day games. 8* NY Mets

8* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): It shouldn't be much of a surprise which side I'm taking in this rubber match as I've been very vocal in recent weeks about how fraudulent the Giants' second half of the season has been. Give them credit for winning 5-1 yesterday, though that was their first win by more than one run since beating Colorado 11-8 on July 17th. That's a two week span. In between, all seven Giants' wins were of the one-run variety, five of them coming in extra innings. How fortunate is that!? Despite being two games over .500, San Francisco has still been outscored on the year by 43 runs, making them massive overachievers in terms of their won-loss record. As I did Tuesday, back the Phillies this afternoon. 

The Phillies took the series opener 4-2 before losing 5-1 yday. I had the Under last night, which was my 10* Total of the Month and the Phils were my 10* Game of the Month on Tuesday. So I've been pretty "plugged into" this series. For this rubber match, Philly would seem to have a considerable edge on the mound w/ Jake Arrieta pitching. While he stumbled in a 9-2 loss to the Braves last weekend, Arrieta had looked good in each of his previous two starts. The Giants offense, while better on the road, still ranks 27th in MLB in runs scored, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. The Phillies are also a strong 23-13 in day games this season.

Going here for the Giants will be Dereck Rodriguez, an overnight change from originally scheduled starter Shaun Anderson. Rodriguez has been used sparingly in the starter's role, making only one since May 10th. It was back on July 15th and an impressive showing as he allowed just one run in five innings at Coors Field. But I still wouldn't read too much into that. He'd really struggled his three times starting previous to that, giving up 18 runs in 13 IP. Perhaps I'm being stubborn, but I'll continue to fade the Giants after they overachieved greatly in July. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Giants/Phillies (7:05 ET): Yesterday I wrote, rather extensively, on how fraudulent the Giants have been in the second half of the season. Armed w/ that info, I made the Phillies my 10* Game of the Month and sure enough they delivered w/ a 4-2 win. It would have been somewhat poetic for San Francisco to lose by one run seeing as how they are 8-1 in one-run games since the Break (and a MLB-best 26-10 in them for the year - very lucky!), but I'll take it. Note the Giants' previous seven wins had all been by exactly one run, five of them coming in extra innings. They are 7-0 in extras since the Break. After successfully fading them Tuesday, tonight it's time to once again exploit their deficiencies w/ our biggest total of the month! Take the Under. 

The Giants do score two more full runs per game on the road compared to at home. But let's keep in mind that they still rank 27th in runs scored overall, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. So this is not a good offensive ballcllub. Nor are they a serious playoff contender, considering they've been outscored by 47 runs over the course of the season. I like Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez to keep them in check tonight as his WHIP (1.091) is a lot better than his ERA (4.91) at home, indicating that he's been a little unlucky in those starts. Last time out, Velasquez blanked the Tigers for 5 2/3 innings, holding them to four hits. Yesterday's starter, Drew Smyly, held the Giants scoreless for seven innings. The Giants only runs came on a pair of pinch hit HR's in the eighth. 

Jeff Samardzija has pitched well for SF recently. His ERA in July is 2.48 (five starts), which is good. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four of the five starts. He'll again need to be at his best here considering the Giants have scored two runs or less in four of their last five games. I think he will be as the former Notre Dame wide receiver also has a pretty solid WHIP this season (1.178) and the current Phillies lineup doesn't have that many at bats against him (this is the first time these teams have met in 2019). The Under is now a perfect 5-0 the L5 meetings and three of the last eight have ended up being shutouts. 10* Under Giants/Phillies

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I'm not convinced that the Cardinals are a better overall team than the Cubs or that they will end up winning the NL Central. The Cards and Cubs enter this series tied for 1st in the division, both sporting 56-49 records. The Cubs have the better YTD run differential (+71 vs. +19), but St. Louis has the all-important homefield edge in this series and the home team has won all nine previous meetings here in 2019. The Cubs aren't a good road team (20-31 record) and I believe the Redbirds are going to exact some revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at Wrigley Field last month.

The Cards will be giving the baseball to Adam Wainwright tonight. He, like most of St. Louis pitchers, perform a lot better here at Busch Stadium. His ERA and WHIP are 2.33 and 1.204 at home, compared to 7.54 and 1.721 on the road. So you can see why it's so important for St. Louis to get this series at home. When they swept the Cubs here back in late May/early June, Wainwright tossed a gem in one of those three games, going eight innings w/o giving up a run. He allowed just two hits. His last home start (7.14 vs. Arizona) saw him toss seven shutout innings in a 5-2 victory.

The Cubs have Yu Darvish on the mound here and he's given up 4+ runs in four of his last six outings. There were two good ones (where he threw 13 consecutive scoreless innings), but both came at home. Darvish has started twice against St. Louis this year. Ironically, the one time at home went worse for him. But considering the Cubs have a 3-7 record in Darvish road starts, I wouldn't fret. This is their third consecutive road series and they've dropped five of seven overall, a stretch where they've hit a putrid .198 collectively. 8* St. Louis 

10* Under Twins/Marlins (7:10 ET): These teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum as we are set to hit the end of July. The Twins, one of the more pleasant surprises in baseball, continue to lead the AL Central. They've been in the driver's seat much of the way, but Cleveland is hot on their heels right now and it looks as if this will be a tightly contested race the rest of the way. Miami is not in playoff contention nor were they expected to be coming into the season. They are the weakest team in the National League in just about every metric, most notably runs scored. With the DH absent from the Twins' lineup (NL rules), I'm playing the Under tonight. 

Minnesota certainly can score. They put 11 runs on the board Sunday as they finished off a successful series against the White Sox (won 3 of 4 games). Only the Yankees and Red Sox have scored more runs than this Twins this season. They are averaging 6.1 rpg on the road, which is 2nd most overall (trailing only the Yankees), but that's a hard number to maintain. Here, they'll be facing a starter that has 1.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts. That would be Zac Gallen, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his six starts for the Marlins. Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the White Sox. It ended up being a 2-0 Miami win and the fourth straight start for Gallen that stayed Under the total. 

Miami's lack of scoring has been an issue all season long. They did beat Arizona 11-6 on Monday, which is quite the high scoring effort for them. It wasn't a season-high in runs scored, but of note is that the Marlins are 4-1 Under this year after scoring 10+ runs in the previous game. In three of those five games, they scored two runs or less. They also had only 10 hits in yday's game, so they were lucky to get that many runs across the plate. Jake Odorizzi hasn't been as effective in the second half as he was in the first for Minnesota, but this is likely to be the easiest lineup he faces all year. In half of his 20 starts this year, Odorizzi has allowed 1 or 0 ER. Miami has scored 90 fewer runs than every other NL team. 10* Under Twins/Marlins

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): OK, so we have reached a point w/ the Giants where they clearly are going to regress moving forward. At least that's what all the numbers say. This team has gone an extremely fortunate 7-0 in extra inning games since the Break and their last seven wins overall have all been by one run (5-0 in extras)! While now two games above .500 (54-52), the Giants have still been outscored by 45 runs, a differential that's indicative of a team w/ a 48-58 record. Even in winning 7 of their L10 games, they've been outscored. They are a MLB-best 26-10 in one-run games for the season, which again, is very lucky. Combine all of the above w/ the Phillies desperately needing wins to stay relevant in the playoff race and you have my strongest MLB play for July. Take the Phillies. 

Philly dropped two of three to Atlanta over the weekend (here at home), but they are still only a game back of the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Do I think the Phils will end up as a playoff team? Probably not. But they're certainly more viable that this overachieving Giants team. Drew Smyly makes his second start for them tonight. His 1st really could not have gone any better as he pitched six innings and allowed only one run in a 2-1 win at Pittsburgh. The Giants have never faced him before. 

These teams have yet to meet this season, but last year saw the home team win all seven times they played. The Giants have dropped six straight games here in Philadelphia. Tyler Beede will get the nod for them tonight and he's coming off his worst showing of the season, having allowed a season-high 10 hits in just 5 2/3 IP. Three of those 10 hits were home runs as the Giants lost 4-1 to the Cubs. Those numbers (see above) for the Giants are really damning as this is a team I'm going to look to regularly fade in August. They'll also be my biggest fade for July! 10* Philadelphia

10* Under D'backs/Marlins (7:10 ET): This is actually the finale of a four-game series that began Friday. Losing two of the first three games has to be considered terribly disappointing for Arizona, but that's "par for the course" in a season where they have outscored opponents by 66 runs, yet are only .500. They lost 5-1 Sunday, a game in which I cashed the Under. Now I also did lose w/ the Under Saturday, a 9-2 final which was the D'backs lone win of the series. But that game featured a grand slam. The opener of this series also stayed Under as it was a 3-2 final (Miami scored two in the bottom of the ninth). Take the Under here. 

With the Marlins, it's easy to understand why you'd want to consistently bet the Under. After all, they are the lowest scoring team in the National League (by a wide margin). I shared this tidbit yday, but they've now scored only 367 runs in 103 games this year. The next lowest scoring team in the NL is Cincinnati w/ 458 runs scored (also in 103 games). But fortunately for Miami, tonight they have Caleb Smith on the mound and he's pitched very well of late (1.50 ERA L3 starts) and at home (1.79 ERA in seven starts). He has a 1.022 WHIP overall (16 starts), which ranks top 10 in all of baseball. Smith's last start was arguably his best as he went seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits. 

Arizona has been held to three totals runs in its two losses in the series. So Smith should fare quite nicely against them, one day after celebrating his 28th birthday. He's got a wide array of pitches that opposing hitters struggle against. The D'backs will counter w/ Merrill Kelly, who had been pitching just fine prior to a shockingly poor start against Baltimore last week. Look for Kelly to bounce back though as this will be the weakest lineup he faces all season long. The Under is 5-0-1 when he starts on five or more days rest. 10* Under D'backs/Marlins

8* Washington (7:05 ET): For much of the first half, the Nationals' season had to be considered a "disappointment." Certainly by me, as I had pegged them to be one of the NL's most improved teams this season. Injuries and a shaky bullpen really hurt early on, but then the club finally caught fire right before the All-Star Break by winning 10 of 12. The second half of the season has brought its own challenges, namely in the starting rotation as Max Scherzer has missed his last several turns. The Nats were able to avoid getting swept at home (by the Dodgers) over the weekend by winning Sunday. One starter that they can count on though is Pat Corbin, who goes Monday in the opener of this all-important series w/ 1st place Atlanta. I'll back him in this spot.

While Washington was able to avoid getting swept on Sunday, Atlanta failed to finish off a sweep. They lost to the Phillies 9-4 yday, a game where I cashed the Over. The first two games had seen the Braves score 24 runs and they remain one of the NL's highest scoring teams. The starting rotation was thought to be solidified last month when Dallas Keuchel was brought in, a big free agent signing that signaled the Braves were "all in" for 2019. But Keuchel's TSR so far is just 3-4 and he lost (as a big home favorite) his last time out to Kansas City. He hasn't been that effective on the road either w/ a 4.24 ERA and 1.585 WHIP. That includes a loss here in D.C. back in his first start for the Braves, which dropped Keuchel to 0-2 w/ a 4.71 ERA in four career starts vs. the Nats. Current Washington hitters have combined to go 41 for 111 (.369) against Keuchel w/ a .974 OPS.

Meanwhile, Corbin has excelled in the past against the Braves. He's gone 5-1 w/ 1.84 ERA in 10 career appearances. That's his best win percentage against any opponent he's faced more than once. Corbin has also excelled here at home this season where he's 5-1 w/ a 1.68 ERA and 0.876 WHIP. Two Braves' hitters he won't have to worry about tonight are Nick Markakis and Darby Swanson, both of whom are injured and out of the lineup. Currently sitting 5.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East standings, this is a huge series for the Nationals and they open it w/ a win. 8* Washington

10* Boston (7:05 ET): I think it's fair to say this was the Red Sox biggest series to date and they've responded in kind by taking three straight from the Yankees. While I'm not sure they'll be able to catch their rivals for first place in the AL East, a Wild Card berth would suffice for the reigning World Series Champs and they enter Sunday tied w/ Oakland for the second WC spot. Just as important, they are looking to finish off a four-game sweep. While Boston came into this series just 1-6 head to head w/ NY this season, none of those games were played here at Fenway where they're now averaging 5.8 rpg. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep tonight on ESPN. 

Yankees pitching has absolutely been annihilated this past week, giving up an average of 10.4 runs the last seven games. Rarely do you see an average that high over a week's time. This series has seen Boston score 38 runs in three games, starting w/ a 19-3 win on Thursday. The Red Sox have scored at least nine runs in all three games, so good luck to Domingo German, who gets the start tonight for the Yankees. German's TSR on the road this season is 7-2, but that's misleading as it comes in spite of a poor 5.65 ERA. In his last start, German gave up eight runs in 3 2/3 innings as the Yanks ended up beating Minnesota 14-12. 

Speaking of misleading records, Boston has Chris Sale on the mound here. The Red Sox record w/ him on the mound this year is just 8-13, which is kind of shocking, but he's pitched better than the record indicates. We're looking a 1.084 WHIP in 21 starts, which is sixth best in the American League. He's also third w/ 182 strikeouts. Sale has been sharp of late w/ B2B quality starts that saw him allow just two runs in 12 IP w/ 22 K's. It is not often you can play him below -200 on the money line here at home. I'll jump at the opportunity. 10* Boston

8* Under Indians/Royals (2:15 ET): Cleveland continues to clean up against the garbage teams in their division and as a result they are now only one game back of Minnesota, who has been out in front in the AL Central all season. To be clear, it's not the Twins that the Indians have been dominating in head to head play. Not only are they are 12-1 against the horrible Tigers this season, this month has seen them take eight of nine from Kansas City. Sunday sees the Tribe going for their second sweep of the Royals in July. Back on Thursday, I started this series with an Under play (my 10* Total of the Week) which cashed despite the game going 14 innings. I'll conclude the same way. Take the Under. 

 Kansas City has scored all of eight runs in this series and today they've got to deal with the mercurial Trevor Bauer, who has pitched well of late. Last time out, Bauer threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. Unfortunately, Cleveland lost that game 2-1 to Toronto. That's one of only four losses since the Break for the Indians, who are now a season-high 20 games above .500. They've won 12 of 14 w/ the only two losses coming by scores of 2-1 and 1-0. Bauer will be going for a 5th straight quality start here. 

As was the case w/ the Arizona-Miami game yday, a grand slam was what was largely responsible for the game going Over and the road team winning comfortably. In the Indians' case, it was Jason Kipnis who hit it (in the 1st inning) and they never looked back after that. They'll go up against Danny Duffy today and while they've certainly had his number in the past, Duffy is coming in off B2B very impressive starts, especially the last one where he held Atlanta to one run in six innings and had 11 K's. Duffy also pitched well the last time he faced Cleveland, giving up only two runs in 6 2/3 innings. The Royals lost that game 4-0 though as they haven't topped five runs in any of the nine games against Cleveland this month. 8* Under Indians/Royals

8* Under D'backs/Marlins (1:10 ET): I missed on this play yesterday as Arizona had a six-run inning, capped by a Nick Ahmed grand slam. They finished with nine runs, but on only seven hits. The first time through the order, the D'backs couldn't even manage as much as a hit, but the second time was a much different story against Jordan Yamamoto. As for Miami, well, they're still the National League's lowest scoring team by a wide margin. Today's starting pitching matchup may not be as attractive as yday's, but I'm going w/ the Under again as absent that one big inning yday, this has been a really low scoring series. 

As mentioned above, and discussed in further detail in yday's analysis, Miami is by far the lowest scoring team in the NL. They've scored just 362 runs in 102 games. To put that in perspective, the NL's next lowest scoring team is San Diego w/ 454 runs scored. Since the All-Star Break, the Marlins offense has been particularly putrid. Five of the last six games have seen them get held to three runs or less. That's happened nine times since the Break. Thus Arizona's Robbie Ray should have a relatively easy outing here. He had 10 K's in his last start as he improved to 4-0 in July, all quality starts. He's averaging nearly 12 K's per nine innings this year and has a 2.28 ERA in four career starts vs. Miami. 

The Marlins turn to Elieser Hernandez Sunday. He's made just five starts in 2019, but has been better in this role as opposed to that of a reliever. Hernandez hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of his starts and has a 0.97 WHIP in the two that have taken place here at home. The Under is 3-0-2 in his five starts. 8* Under D'backs/Marlins

10* Over Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): Atlanta has taken the first two of this three-game set, scoring 24 runs in the process. The Braves are one of the National League's highest scoring teams and - by far - the highest scoring team in their own division. This being a division series has meant the wins have been of a little more importance than per usual. But the Braves will be underdogs Sunday as they are set to face Aaron Nola and can only offer a struggling Kevin Gausman as a counter. The first two games easily went Over and so too should this one - regardless of who wins.

Nola has inarguably been Philadelphia's best starter this year. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his last seven starts while posting a 1.51 ERA. That stretch includes eight shutout innings against the Braves back on July 2nd. But things haven't always gone that well against this particular division opponent. He allowed five runs to them, in just 4 2/3 IP, back on June 15th. Now both of those starts came in Atlanta. Nola has been a better pitcher here at home, but I still question whether he can maintain his recent level of performance. I see the Braves being able to match their season average of 5.0 rpg on the road here. After all, they've scored 24 runs the past two days.

Lost in Saturday's defeat is the fact the Phillies scored seven runs. They should again be able to score plenty today. They face Gausman, who has not had much success against them in the past. He's winless (three starts) w/ a 5.51 ERA against them in his career. He's also been pretty bad on the road this season w/ a 6.35 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in six outings. The Over has gone 5-0-1. Last week, Gausman made a successful return from the DL, but his work from earlier in the season has me skeptical. 10* Over Braves/Phillies

10* San Diego (8:40 ET): So the Giants have become my least favorite MLB team, for reasons I'll get into right now. They have gone 12-3 since the All-Star Break, which is commendable, but it's been about as fortunate a streak as I've seen in recent memory. It's not like this is a good team; they've still been outscored by 42 runs this season. But they are a lucky team. Since the Break, they are now a perfect 7-0 in extra games, which includes last night's 2-1 win in 11 innings. That record is pretty ridiculous as is their MLB-best 25-10 record in one-run games this season. Their last six wins have all been by exactly one run, five of those coming in extra innings. Incredible.

On the other side of the ledger, we've got the Padres, who just dropped their eighth straight home game last night. It was also a failed attempt to exact revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the Giants at the beginning of the month. Full disclosure - I had the Padres last night and am none too happy about the result as it was a top play (10*). I thought it was time to "sell high" on the Giants going into their previous series (w/ the Cubs), but it turns out that hasn't been the case (yet!) as their only loss since then came in a game where there was a pitching change and thus my fade had to be ruled "no action." 

Speaking of "lucky," how about the fact Giants starter Shaun Anderson has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP? (Do you sense a theme here?) Anderson has not factored into any of the decisions as he did last longer than five innings in any of the three games, all of which were come from behind efforts by the team. The bottom line (as I'm sure you can tell by now!) is I simply do not respect the Giants. I'll trust San Diego w/ Cal Quantrill on the hill to get it done today. Quantrill hasn't allowed any runs his last two appearances, giving up only five hits in 11 2/3 IP. The Padres are due for some revenge (and a win at home!) while the Giants are set to regress. 10* San Diego

7* Minnesota (7:10 ET): The White Sox are a sinking ship, not that I didn't see this coming. This is a team that has had a very poor run differential all season and the fact they were able to stay within a few games of .500 was always highly misleading. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, they are still baseball's biggest overachiever in 2019, which is saying something as their won-loss record is only 45-56. But a run differential that's now -107 (3rd worst) is indicative of a 39-win team, a gap of six games from what's normally expected. They've been outscored 16-5 by the Twins in the first two games of this series and are set to lose again tonight. 

Now 63-40 on the season, Minnesota continues to lead the AL Central, but Cleveland (just two games back) is hot on their heels. The Twins are considered a surprise success story in 2019, but their own run differential (+119) indicates that this is a very legitimate contender. They are averaging 6.1 runs per game on the road, which is a really impressive number. That's a big reason why they are 32-19 away from Target Field. So I expect them to "tee off" against Ivan Nova, who has a 6.02 home ERA this season. Nova did just toss a complete game his last time out, allowing only one run, but that was against a Miami team that is among the lowest scoring in all of MLB. 

Minnesota hit five home runs last night, becoming the fastest team to 200 (home runs) in a season - ever. Back on June 29th, Nova gave up a pair of long balls in a 10-3 home loss to the Twins. That last start simply is not indicative of how Nova has pitched over the balance of the year. Martin Perez will get the baseball for the Twins and he's 3-1 in four previous starts vs. Chicago. Consider that the White Sox are averaging only 2.7 runs over the last seven games while batting .196. Minnesota is averaging 7.7 rpg its last seven games while batting a collective .300! This is a huge mismatch. 7* Minnesota 

8* Under D'backs/Marlins (6:10 ET): Arizona badly needs to win this series and honestly a sweep was probably what they really needed. But a sweep is now out of the question after blowing a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth here in Miami yday. The loss drops the D'backs back to .500 even though they've actually outscored their opponents this year by 63 runs, which is the third best differential in the entire National League. While they do score more on the road than at home, that wasn't the case last night and facing Jordan Yamamoto here won't making scoring any easier. So I'm playing the Under in this one. 

Fortunately for Arizona, they too should have confidence in their starter. Alex Young has posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in four starts. While he was shaky his last time out (allowed 4 runs in 4 IP to Milwaukee), his first three starts saw him allow all of two runs in 16 1/3 IP. He's allowed only nine hits so far and no-hit Colorado (for six innings) back on July 7th. Miami will be the weakest lineup Young has faced so far as they come in having scored a NL-low 360 runs this season. To put that number in some perspective, the next lowest scoring team in the NL is San Diego w/ 449 runs scored. 

True to form, the Marlins have been held to three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The last three have all stayed Under. But with Yamamoto pitching today, they should stay in the game. Yamamoto is off his worst start to date, giving up five runs in four innings to the Dodgers. But that's the Dodgers and he actually only allowed four hits. Like Young, Yamamoto has a solid WHIP (1.026) as he doesn't give up many hits. He's allowed just 22 hits in 38 IP and three of his seven starts have seen him give up zero runs. This battle of rookies will be a pitcher's duel. 8* Under D'backs/Marlins

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Giants are a team I've been looking to "sell high" on all week. Unfortunately, thanks to a pitching change Wednesday, I was not able to seize the opportunity. I was all set to take the Cubs in San Fran, but starter Jon Lester was a late scratch, thus rendering my play a "no action." For what it's worth, the Cubs did win anyway (4-1), snapping the Giants' three-game in streak. A large reason why I've been so eager to fade the Giants is they're clearly overachieving at this point. Despite being a game over .500, they've actually been outscored by 43 runs this season. I won't miss this chance to fade them in what's a huge revenge spot for the Padres. 

Unlike SF, San Diego played yesterday. They were shutout, 4-0 by the Mets, but the good news is that they typically bounce back well from such defeats. They're a perfect 2-0 this year off a shutout loss and 19-8 in that situation the L3 seasons. Starting the series opener for the Padres will be Joey Lucchesi. While he struggled in his last start (at Wrigley Field), Lucchesi has been far better at home. He's gone 6-2 here at Petco Park w/ a 2.83 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. I like him in this spot obviously. 

Many will look at Jeff Samardzija's recent numbers and be impressed. But a string of three straight quality starts ended last week when he allowed four runs in just five innings to the Mets. The Giants lost that game 11-4. I mentioned earlier that this is a revenge spot for the Padres. They were swept here at home by San Francisco at the start of this month. That's what began a stunning 16-4 run by the Giants (best record in baseball this month), but be aware that they have gone an extremely fortunate 6-0 in extra inning games during that time. Their last five wins have also all been of the one-run variety. It's time for them to regress and the Padres to get revenge. 10* San Diego

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Yesterday, I offered up a rare endorsement of the Pirates. In the analysis, I noted it was rare because I'm simply not a believer in the team long-term, nor have I been for some time now. Basically all season long, they've had a run differential indicating they've played about as badly as any team in the NL, at least this side of Miami. The reason for playing Pittsburgh yday afternoon was that they were faced w/ a situation where home teams usually respond positively - needing a win to avoid a four-game sweep. Well, they got swept (by St. Louis) and now the endorsements will get even rarer. In fact, today I'm recommending that you fade them.

While the Pirates were losing their fifth in a row yday, the Mets were busy shutting out the Padres 4-0. New York has had a disappointing season as well, but they're a better team than the Pirates. This weekend will be the 1st time these teams have played in 2019. It's actually been almost a full year since they last met. The Pirates are in bad shape, not only losing their last five games, but also 11 of their last 13. The Mets took two of three from the Padres to start the week. 

Zach Wheeler will make his return to the mound tonight for the Mets. He has not pitched since July 7th. The subject of trade rumors, it appears as if Wheeler may be sticking around in Queens. The Mets have actually done alright when he pitches here at home, going 6-3 and Wheeler has a 1.186 WHIP in those starts. As for Pittsburgh starter Dario Agrazal, he's actually been a nice addition to the banged up Pittsburgh rotation. But the way his team has played in the second half, that hardly matters. The Pirates have lost 16 of their last 21 road games to teams that have winning home records. Back to fading them. 7* NY Mets

9* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): Whenever the sensational Hyun-Jin Ryu is on the bump, the expectation is that there won't be many runs scored, especially from the Dodgers' opponent. But I view Ryu starting the series opener against the Nationals a little differently. It's not like the Under has been a sure thing in Ryu starts this season (it's only 10-9) and the Dodgers offense is certainly capable of "carrying the load" offensively, if need be. They average 5.5 rpg on the road where they also allow far more than they do at Chavez Ravine. Washington is no slouch offensively either. Take the Over. 

Ryu's numbers are obviously ridiculous and that's why he started for the Senior Circuit in the All-Star Game. But while his numbers are other-worldly at home (10-0 TSR, 0.89 ERA, 0.792 WHIP), they are simply "good" on the road (2.92 ERA, 1.127 WHIP) and his TSR is actually just 4-5. His last road start, a 7-4 Dodgers' win over the Red Sox, easily went Over. Here, he'll be facing a Washington team that scored seven runs yday (but lost as a huge ML favorite). The Over is actually 17-5 in the Dodgers L22 road games vs. teams that have winning records and 6-1 in Ryu's L7 starts vs. teams w/ winning records. 

Washington will go w/ Anibal Sanchez opposite Ryu and he too has pitched well of late. A win over the Braves on Saturday improved his record to 6-0 in his L9 starts (8-1 TSR) w/ a 2.70 ERA. But he'll be going up against the best team in baseball tonight and the highest scoring team in the National League. Like the Nats, LA comes into this series in a foul mood after they dropped both games of the previous series (to the Angels). Also of note is the fact Sanchez has given up a home run in eight consecutive starts. 9* Over Dodgers/Nationals

10* Under Indians/Royals (8:15 ET): Tip your cap to Kansas City, who just went down to Atlanta and took both games from a Braves team that is in first place in the NL East. Of course, I've been saying the Royals are better than their won-loss record. It may not sound all that impressive, but they have a run differential that's indicative of a team w/ five more wins. Only Cincinnati and Arizona have underachieved more according to run differential. Yesterday's 2-0 Royals' win was their second shutout in the L4 games and we had the Under. Same thing again tonight as they open up a four-game set at Kauffman Stadium w/ division foe Cleveland. 

Cleveland is also off a shutout win as they beat Toronto 4-0 last night. The Indians have gotten themselves into Wild Card position thanks to a soft schedule, but give them credit for taking full advantage. They're now a season-best 17 games over .500. They've already played the Royals six times this month and gone 5-1. The Royals have not scored more than five runs in any of those six games. Even though they did just sweep Atlanta, it's not as if KC hit well in that series. They had just five hits in each game! 

With a 0.977 WHIP in eight starts this season (0.735 L3!), Indians' starter Adam Plutko should pitch well in this spot. The Under has cashed each of the last three times Plutko has faced the Royals and just last week he held them to one run in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he still took the loss in a 1-0 final. Four of Cleveland's last five games have stayed Under while KC is 4-0 Under its L4. While Mike Montgomery definitely struggled last week against the Tribe, it was his first start of the year I expect him to do better this time around. He's on regular rest this time as opposed to the ridiculous amount of time he had off (17 days!) the last time as he'd come over in a trade from the Cubs who had used him exclusively as a reliever. 10* Under Indians/Royals

10* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Endorsements of the Pirates will be few and far between on this end. It was months ago that I pointed to the team's poor run differential as a sign that they would decline and sure enough, that's exactly what has happened. They've dropped 9 of 11 since the Break and now find themselves in last place in the NL Central. But the reason I'm making an exception on the Bucs today is all about the situation. They find themselves in the rare predicament of possibly getting swept in a four-game series at home. I'll call for them to avoid the sweep.

St. Louis won the first two games of the series 6-5 and 4-3. Following those two one-run decisions, it was a much easier 14-8 victory yesterday. While the Cardinals are seemingly surging (won 10 of 13), I'm still unconvinced that this is anything but a mediocre ballclub. They are below .500 on the road and today's starter, Miles Mikolas, has been downright horrendous away from Busch Stadium w/ a 7.04 ERA and 1.627 WHIP. He's dropped his last five decisions on the road to fall to 1-6 in 10 starts. With the Cards' bullpen having already been taxed in this series, there's a lot of pressure on Mikolas here and I don't think he's up for the challenge. 

Joe Musgrove will go for the Pirates. While it hasn't been a great year for him, he looked great his last time out, allowing just an unearned run and two hits in a 5-1 win over the Phillies. Musgrove went six innings and matched a season-high w/ eight strikeouts. The team does have a winning record (6-4) w/ him on the mound at PNC Park this season. While Musgrove lost opposite Mikolas earlier this month, that game was obviously played in St. Louis. The Pirates are 5-0 in Musgrove's L5 home starts. 10* Pittsburgh 

10* Under Royals/Braves (7:20 ET): I think there a lot of factors pointing to this being a low-scoring game Wednesday night at SunTrust Park. First off, the Royals are w/o the DH because this Interleague series is being contested under National League rules. Now while they didn't stop KC from winning 5-4 Tuesday night, note they had only five hits and a three-run rally in the top half of the eighth was a total manufacture job as they drew three walks and a HBP. The Braves are big favorites Wednesday night and if they hold true to form, then the likelihood of playing the bottom of the ninth is small here. Take the Under. 

The Royals are likely to struggle again at the plate tonight as they are facing Julio Teheran. Teheran has been lights out of late for the Braves, posting a 1.53 ERA and 0.849 WHIP his L3 starts. While he actually didn't win any decisions during that time, the team went 3-0 in those games. Teheran also has a 2.54 ERA in nine home starts this season. He's actually allowed 2 ER or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts overall. Again, it was hardly a productive night at the plate Tuesday for the DH-less Royals, who are now 22-7 Under their L29 games vs. the National League. 

Fortunately for KC, they've got Brad Keller pitching and he's had a good month so far w/ a 1.80 ERA in three starts. The Royals have won the L4 times he's started. He was hit w/ two unearned runs his last time out (allowed four total), but had allowed 1 or 0 runs in four of his six starts previous to that. The last time Keller pitched in a NL park was July 5th when he held the Nationals to one run over 5 2/3 innings. The Braves are known as a "high-scoring" team, but their last four games have all stayed Under as have 7 of the last 9. 10* Under Royals/Braves

analysis soon

8* Chi Cubs (9:45 ET): I concede that there are some warning signs here NOT to take the Cubs, such as their struggles both on the road and against left-handed pitching. The latter is exacerbated here by going up against Giants' ace Madison Bumgarner, who is unbeaten over his L5 starts w/ a 1.55 ERA. But, for me, this one boils down to a lack of belief in a San Francisco club that has been drastically overachieving in the second half w/ a 5-0 record in extra inning games. That doesn't even include last night's comeback where they rallied to score three runs in the bottom of the eighth. 

While the Cubs may only be 18-28 on the road, they can take solace in the fact that the Giants are an inept team offensively here at home (just 3.4 rpg). Also, as good as Bumgarner has been recently for SF, Yu Darvish has been better for the Cubs. Darvish goes tonight and has been lights out since the Break w/ B2B six shutout inning efforts where he allowed only two hits both times. He had 15 K's against just one walk in the two wins as well. Now both were at home, but I expect Darvish to pitch well here against what remains one of the weakest hitting teams in all of MLB. Even though they're now 10-2 since the Break, the Giants are still 26th in batting average and 28th in OPS. 

Bumgarner has come on strong for the Giants and has had the Cubs number in the past. Off a complete game effort (his 1st of '19) his last time out though, I wonder how he'll follow. Again, the Giants have been really lucky of late and really all year. That might seem odd to say about a team that is over .500 for the 1st time all year. But they've still been outscored by 41 runs and would not be above .500 were it not for a MLB-best 23-10 record in one-run games. Their last four wins have all been by one run, three of them coming in extras. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under Phillies/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has devolved into one of the worst teams in all of baseball w/ their 30-65 record and -169 run differential. The only team w/ a comparable record is Baltimore and you can expect these two moribund ballclubs to "battle it out" to see who finishes w/ the worst record in MLB this year. Given the current state of the Tigers, it would seem imperative that the Phillies take advantage of their next two games here as they badly need wins to remain viable in the NL Wild Card hunt. Problem is, I'm not confident they'll score a lot of runs tonight. Take the Under.

Philly definitely didn't do a lot of scoring in its last series, though they were able to take two of three from Pittsburgh. They won the rubber match Sunday, 2-1, a day after losing 5-1. All three games in the series stayed Under as have 7 of the team's L10 games overall. In those 10 games, the Phils have been held to four runs or less six times. Another reason I don't see them doing that well at the plate tonight is they're going up against Matthew Boyd, who is Detroit's best starter. Granted, Boyd's ERA has risen over the last month or so, but he still sports a very respectable 3.36 ERA and 1.012 WHIP here at Comerica Park.

The Tigers are averaging only 3.3 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average of any team in baseball. So that's a good sign for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has often struggled on the road this year. But Nola brings in a 3.06 ERA his L3 starts and had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before running into the Dodgers his last time out. The Phillies aren't the Dodgers and in fact are hitting a collective .213 over their L7 games. With the Under being 8-1 the L9 times Philly has been off an off day, this should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Phillies/Tigers

10* Boston (7:05 ET): If I may offer a "peek behind the curtain," I've got the Red Sox finishing AHEAD of the Rays and grabbing the second Wild Card in the American League. If that projection is to come to fruition, then Boston has to make a statement (i.e. win!) this series as the Rays are currently reeling. The visitors got off to a great start last night, jumping out to an early 8-0 advantage and holding on for the 9-4 win in a game TB ended up using a position player to pitch the ninth inning. That's just the state of the team right now as the Rays have dropped six of seven while being outscored 41-17 in the process. I'm backing the Red Sox here. 

I know he's struggled some in 2019, but this is a great price on Chris Sale, who is coming off a superb showing vs. Toronto. Not only did he strike out 12, but Sale held the Blue Jays scoreless for six innings and allowed only two hits. Granted, Toronto is bad, but TB isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball right now either.  The Rays lineup has produced more than four runs in a game only one time since the Break. Plus, Sale's 1.92 ERA at Tropicana Field is the lowest for him at any park in which he's made at least five starts. Despite the poor ROI on him this season, Sale's WHIP is still 1.079 in 20 starts, which is not bad at all. 

Tampa Bay obviously has pitching concerns if they're turning to a position player to pitch in a key division game. One could make the case that the game was already out of hand, but MLB rules state you're supposed to only use a position player on the mound if trailing by 6+ runs. On Tuesday, the Rays will start Yonny Chrinos, who didn't have a good time w/ the Yankees on Thursday as he allowed 5 runs in 5 IP. Considering that Boston is hitting a lot better than TB is right now, this would seem to be a mismatch. The Red Sox come in averaging nearly 6.0 rpg on the road this season! 10* Boston

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Texas arrives in Seattle on a season-worst seven game win streak. They are still one of nine teams in the American League above .500 (50-49), but their Wild Card hopes are fading fast. Truthfully, this was an overachieving team in the first half of the season. They've got a shot to turn things around though against the last place Mariners, whom they've already beaten in 7 of 10 head to head meetings this year. Also, Seattle comes into the series having dropped eight of its last nine games. Take the Under. 

Texas just couldn't score enough in Houston over the weekend, totaling just seven runs in the three games. During this seven-game slide, they've averaged only 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .175. For the fourth time this season, they are set to face Seattle starter Marco Gonzales. While one of those previous three didn't go well for Gonzales, the other two saw him limit the Rangers' hitters to only two runs in 14 IP. His last time starting at home saw him hold Oakland to just two runs and five hits in 8 IP. That was a far cry from when he faced the A's in Oakland last Tuesday and he allowed six runs. That poor effort snapped a stretch of six straight starts where Gonzales allowed 3 ER or less. 

Adrian Sampson gets the starting nod tonight for the Rangers. He hasn't started a game since July 5th when he was shelled by Minnesota for seven runs. But the Twins are one of the top offensive teams in all of MLB. The Mariners have been held to three runs or less in seven of their eight games since the All-Star Break. All seven instances were losses and they scored just 14 runs in those games. Sampson has a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. the M's, his former team. He beat them twice back in May, allowing just four runs across 10+ innings. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:45 ET): This is the one game in this report where I expect plenty of runs to be scored. It's hardly a strong matchup of a starting pitchers as the Cubs go w/ the relatively untested Alec Mills and the Giants go w/ the ineffective Shaun Anderson. The Cubs' last six games have all stayed Under the total, but we look for them to break out tonight as they actually average more runs per game outside of Wrigley. Admittedly, the Giants' offense has been pretty putrid here at home, but they'll have their chances today against Mills. Take the Over. 

The Cubs had won five in a row before losing 5-1 to the Padres Sunday. They are still 7-2 since the Break w/ all of those games played at home. Chalk yday up to being "one of those days," but we think the offense should fare well against Anderson as he has an 8.78 ERA and 2.101 WHIP his L3 starts. Those L3 starts all went Over w/ Anderson allowing 13 runs in 13 1/3 IP. They were all on the road, but Anderson's numbers at home this year aren't much better. Cubs' road games have been averaging more than 10.5 rpg this year. 

Anderson actually has a 3-0 TSR those L3 starts as well, thanks to the Giants scoring 28 runs, including 21 in the last two. Overall, his L4 starts have all gone Over. The Giants needed all of 11 runs to take three of four from the Mets over the weekend and what's interesting is that series went 47 innings as all three Giants' wins were in extra innings. I don't like their chances nearly as much in this series, but they've got a shot here as they're up against an unproven starter (only 1 start in 2019) and the Cubs' bullpen has generally been BAD on the road (5.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). The Giants are 9-2 since the All-Star Break. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

8* Under A's/Astros (8:10 ET): Oakland comes into this very important series having won 8 of 10. But they lost yday in crushing fashion up in Minnesota Sunday and would seem to be on the wrong end of a pretty severe pitching mismatch in Monday's opener. Furthermore, the Astros just swept the Rangers over the weekend, holding them to all of all of five runs. The last run through the Houston rotation saw the five starters all allow three runs or fewer. Now tonight it'll be (arguably) the best of the lot going, Gerrit Cole, who leads all of MLB in strikeouts w/ 194. But I also don't project Houston to score much in this game, so Under is the call here. 

At first, I was a little leery of believing in Oakland starter Homer Bailey in this spot. After all, Bailey has a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. But that's skewed by one bad one (at Toronto on 6.29) when he was still w/ Kansas City. He's actually allowed 3 ER in six of his last seven starts overall, posting a 2.85 ERA during that time. Bailey also has good career marks vs. Houston as he's 3-0 lifetime against them w/ a 1.46 ERA in eight career efforts. As a member of the Royals, Bailey tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings vs. the Astros back on 6.18.

So Bailey should do just fine here. But the rest of the Oakland lineup should struggled against Cole, who has looked great of late while posting huge strikeout totals. Cole has given up 2 ER or less in 9 of his previous 10 outings, one of those coming against the A's (back on 6.2). In his L2 starts, Cole has 24 K's. He's got a 0.924 WHIP at home this year where his TSR is 9-2. The A's have really struggled to beat the Astros this season as they are 1-7 in eight head to head meetings, plus they've scored two runs or less in six of those games. 8* Under A's/Astros

8* Under Marlins/White Sox (8:10 ET): What a miserable matchup this is for Monday. You've got two of the three lowest scoring teams in baseball here, so I don't think calling for an Under would be unreasonable. For awhile, Miami was looking like they might produce the fewest runs scored in a season since the "Dead Ball Era." Now they're just battling w/ Detroit for fewest runs scored this year. They're still producing only 3.6 rpg and were shutout yday (by the Dodgers). Not too far ahead of them are the White Sox, averaging 4.2 rpg and losers of 8 of 10 games since the Break. Take the Under in this one, folks.

Miami's last two games both went Over as they allowed 19 total runs. But that was against the Dodgers. The White Sox seem incapable of that kind of offensive production as they've topped five runs only once in their last 12 games. I'd issued a "warning" to the Southside as this team is far worse than it's 44-52 record. They've been outscored by 98 runs. That's the same differential as the 36-61 Marlins, who by the way have topped four runs just three times in the L10 games. Yesterday's shutout was the 15th instance of that happening to them this year. 

On paper, this doesn't look like a great starting pitching battle for Monday. But Ivan Nova has strong career numbers vs. Miami. He's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.98 ERA in four career starts against them. Also, the last time Nova started here at home, he shut out the Cubs for 5+ innings in a 3-1 win. Meanwhile, the White Sox have never seen Miami starter Trevor Richards, who has done an adequate job pitching for a bad team this season. The Under is 4-1 in Richards' last five road starts and 12-4-1 in the Marlins' L17 road games overall. 8* Under Marlins/White Sox

10* Under Rangers/Astros (2:10 ET): The Astros are going for a three-game sweep here, but to do so they'll have to go through Lance Lynn, who has been the most effective starter this season on the Rangers' staff. Truthfully, he's been one of the better pitchers in the entire American League. Not only is he tied first in wins (12), but he's top five in innings pitched (128) and top eight in strikeouts (140). With a solid history against Houston (1.90 ERA in nine career appearances), I feel he'll be able to keep the Houston lineup in check. As for the Rangers offensively, I don't expect much either. Thus, I'm on the Under here. 

This has been a crushing series to the Rangers, who have now lost six in a row and are 50-48 for the year. They're one of nine teams in the American League currently over .500, but have fallen 6.5 games off the pace in the Wild Card chase. One of the biggest issues has been a lack of offense. They've scored only four runs in this series and just 20 total during the six-game slide. Over the L7 games, they're hitting a collective .189. The one positive here is clearly Lynn, who blanked Houston for seven innings when he faced them right after the All-Star Break. He had 11 strikeouts in that game, a 5-0 Texas win, as well.

Houston's pitching staff seems to be in rough shape, but they got a strong outing from Jose Urquidy yesterday. Texas had only two hits the entire game, one of them an infield single, and 20 of the first 21 batters went back to the dugout. That's encouraging for Rogelio Armenteros, who gets his first start for the 'Stros this afternoon. Armenteros did throw four shutout innings of relief on Tuesday, but will be making his first big league start here. I'm not concerned as Houston has a strong slew of relievers to back him up (if need be) here. 10* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Reds finally got a win in this series by rallying for a 3-2 decision last night. They'd blown leads in each of the first two games, which is somewhat emblematic of the frustrating season that's taken place here in the Queen City as the team is +29 in run differential, yet eight games below .500 and in last place in the Central. The Reds' gap between actual and expected wins right now is -7, making them the biggest underachievers in baseball (at least relative to their run diff). But I think they are certainly capable of earning a series split w/ their mediocre division rival. Take 'em Sunday. 

The Cardinals' Jack Flaherty has been much more effective at home than on the road this season. So that makes him a prime candidate to fade in this spot as he gets the starting nod Sunday. While Flaherty has a 3.22 ERA and 0.937 WHIP at Busch Stadium, those numbers jump to 5.96 and 1.544 on the road where he has a 3-6 TSR. What's interesting w/ Flaherty is that overall he was 4-3 his first nine starts, but is winless (0-3) over his L10. Yet his ERA is pretty much the same in those two stretches. He did throw seven shutout innings vs. Cincinnati back on April 28th, but that was at home.

It's also been awhile since Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani got a win. But in his case, he's long overdue considering he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. The one bad one was on the road. DeSclafani did go 3-1 w/ a 3.08 ERA in June and has typically pitched very well against the Cardinals in his career. He's 6-2 w/ a 3.32 ERA against them in 13 career appearances. Though the Reds have struggled in day games this year, I think the Cardinals' problems on the road (Flaherty specifically) overrides that. 10* Cincinnati

8* Under A's/Twins (7:10 ET): Both of these teams are certainly capable of putting runs on the board. But I think they'll likely struggle to do so tonight, given the starting pitchers they'll be facing. When I took the Over in this matchup Thursday, it was w/ a pitching matchup far more conducive to that outcome. I still came up a couple runs short and then yesterday's game, a 5-3 win by the A's, also stayed Under. Minnesota actually scores fewer runs per game at home than on the road and seven of their last eight games have now stayed Under. Take the Under in this one. 

Jose Berrios has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts for Minnesota, but that's misleading w/ him not giving up more than 3 ER in any of them. Now, Berrios was charged w/ three unearned runs in a June 28th loss to the White Sox. But still, Saturday's starter has given up 3 ER or less in NINE consecutive outings. His last five have all stayed Under and he still has a 2.80 ERA the last seven. He has a 2.32 ERA and 1.104 WHIP for the year at home. Bottom line is I expect Berrios to pitch well tonight. He just held the A's to only three runs in five innings back on July 4th. The Under is 12-4 the L16 times Berrios has started the third game of a series.

While Minnesota has clearly been one of baseball's biggest surprise teams this year, it is Oakland that is the hotter team right now. The A's, a playoff team year ago (many forget that!), have won seven of eight and are now very much a viable Wild Card contender at 14 games over .500 (56-42). Tonight, they'll give the baseball to Brett Anderson, who has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP. Also, all three starts have gone Under. He did not face the Twins in the series earlier this month. But Anderson has gone at least six innings in all three starts and never allowed more than 2 ER. He's allowed 3 ER or less in 9 of his L10 starts. 8* Under A's/Twins 

10* Over Royals/Indians (7:10 ET): Cleveland could very well make the playoffs in the American League by virtue of simply beating up on their three lesser division rivals (White Sox, Royals, Tigers). They've swept the Tigers three times in the last month (10-0 record!) and are now 6-1 against the Royals over the same time frame after last night's 10-5 win. Six straight wins have the Tribe a season-high 16 games over .500, but it's been a very easy schedule of late. Last night's game easily went Over the total and looking at this starting pitching matchup, tonight should follow suit. Take the Over here. 

The Indians have scored no fewer than six runs in each of the past five games. I project them to again hit that number Saturday as they'll face Jake Junis, who doesn't exactly have great numbers over his 20 starts this season. It's a 5.08 ERA and 1.421 WHIP for Junis, although he just turned in one of his better efforts by allowing only one run in 7 IP vs. the White Sox. However, the last time he faced Cleveland, things didn't go nearly that well. Junis gave up seven runs and failed to make it out of the fifth inning. He's allowed 11 runs in 10 2/3 IP vs. the Indians this season. In nine career appearances against them, his ERA is 6.24. 

Adam Plutko has a 6-1 team start record for Cleveland, but that's a little bit misleading in light of the fact he also sports a 4.87 ERA. Now his WHIP is a lot better than his ERA, both at home and overall, but we're still looking at a pitcher who is coming off four straight no-decisions. He actually gave up three home runs his last time out, and that was vs. Detroit.  He allowed five runs total in that start and was done after 5 1/3 IP. When he faced KC on 6.24, Plutko lasted just four innings. The Royals have actually scored at least five runs in each of their last six games. If they can get there again (I project they will), then this one goes Over. 10* Over Royals/Indians

8* Milwaukee (9:40 ET): While it may seem odd that Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers are favored in this spot, the fact is that Arizona simply isn't a very good home team. That point was reiterated last night as the D'backs returned to Chase Field off two big offensive games in Texas, and scored just one run in a loss to Brew Crew. I think it goes beyond just the DH (which they got to enjoy having the previous two games) though. At home this year, the D'backs are now 20-23 and see a significant decrease in offensive production, down to 4.4 runs per game from 5.7 on the road. I'm siding w/ the surging visitors in this one. 

Chacin may seem like a bit of a risk here given he's 0-6 his L10 starts and 1-8 on the road this year. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.63 WHIP away from Miller Park, but recent performances have been much better and would seem to indicate a turnaround is forthcoming. Chacin has allowed just five runs total his L3 starts (16 IP) and has allowed only two runs in each of his past two road starts, including a quality effort at Cincinnati on 7.3. The problem in both of those starts is that the Brewers' offense was shutout. They've since turned it around w/ a three-game win streak, including a 13-run effort Tuesday vs. Atlanta. 

Arizona's Taylor Clarke will be making his first start since July 2nd here. He's been on the DL the last 15 days, but I don't think just time off can cure all that ails him as Clarke has a very poor ERA (6.92) and WHIP (1.692) in his nine starts overall. Again, he shouldn't expect much run support here given the drop off we see from D'backs offense here at home. The Brewers are actually 6-1 vs. the D'backs since the start of last season and what's really incredible is that Arizona hasn't scored more than two runs in any of those seven contests! With Adrian Houser back in a relief role, I like Milwaukee's bullpen alot more now as well. 8* Milwaukee

10* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): Baltimore's pitching staff is obviously atrocious, but their best starter is going tonight in what should be an excellent starting pitching matchup overall w/ David Price. John Means is the starter in question here for the O's and he, the team's lone All-Star, has a 3.11 ERA and 1.099 WHIP this season. Means is off his worst outing of the year as he gave up six runs to Tampa Bay in a 12-4 loss, but should bounce back here as the Red Sox aren't hitting like they used to and Means has had prior success against them. Take the Under. 

With the struggles of Chris Sale, Price has become the de facto ace of this Boston rotation. Price is having a really good year as he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 17 starts. His record is 7-2. Also, Price has really had Baltimore's number through the years. He's 16-5 w/ a 2.65 ERA all-time against them and that include a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.72 ERA here at Camden Yards. The Red Sox bullpen should be bolstered by the returning Nathan Eovaldi and it's not like Baltimore's hitting is any good either. In five of the six games since the Break, the Orioles have scored 4 runs or less. Three times they've scored two runs or less.

So it's basically all on Means to keep this one competitive, a tough ask seeing as Baltimore is 5-32 the L37 times it has been a home underdog of +175 or more. Boston is 35-9 the L44 times it has been a road fave of -175 or higher. Despite Means struggling his last time out, he still sports a 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up 3 ER or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts this season. In three starts against Boston, he's allowed a total of four runs in 17 IP. By the way, Boston won in shutout fashion yday, beating Toronto 5-0. 10* Under Red Sox/Orioles

10* Over A's/Twins (8:10 ET): Minnesota saw its five-game Under streak end yesterday, although it was in the least desirable fashion possible as they lost 14-4 at home to the Mets. Few (if any) predicted that the Twins would have one of the best records in baseball at this point, so perhaps its apropos to see the team on its first three-game losing streak of the season. Tonight, they start a new series w/ the hottest team in baseball, that being Oakland, who has been perfect since the All-Star Break and won six straight overall. I'll be taking the Over in this matchup of AL playoff contenders.

We know the Twins have been carried by one of the top offenses in the game and a starting rotation that's been surprisingly good. But that rotation has started to slip. Kyle Gibson was one of the overachievers pre-All Star Break, but his first start of the second half saw him last just 3 2/3 innings and he allowed three runs. Fortunately, the Twins do average 5.6 runs per game, tied for the most in all of MLB. But they're not the only offense that can score here. Oakland is actually averaging 5.6 rpg on the road this year, which is a top five number in all of baseball. So Gibson is going to have to contend with that. The A's have homered in 17 consecutive contests and have scored nine or more runs in three of their last four games.

Michael Fiers has posted some excellent numbers of late for the A's and gets the starting nod here. But Fiers' numbers come w/ a caveat and that's he's simply not as effective on the road. His ERA and WHIP both jump considerably, to 5.76 and 1.345 respectively. The Under may be 8-2 when Fiers pitches at home, but the Over is 6-3 when he pitches on the road. His L6 starts have all stayed Under, but I expect him to struggle tonight. 10* Over A's/Twins

8* Under Dodgers/Phillies (12:35 ET): The NL West-leading Dodgers have had their way w/ the Phillies in 2019 (5-1 head to head) and they've had no problem piling up runs in this series. They've crossed the plate 31 times in the three games so far, starting w/ a 16-2 beatdown in Monday's opener. They lost Tuesday, 9-8, but quickly bounced back w/ a 7-2 win last night. While LA can lay claim to the best win percentage in all of baseball (.653), the Phillies' freefall has continued in the second half where they've now lost four of six. I'm taking the Under in this game.

It's quick turnaround for the teams after last night's game didn't end until 1:42 am local time. They can thank a 2 hour, 37 min rain delay for that. Six Dodgers pitchers combined on a two-hitter and Philly's only runs came in the sixth. Ross Stripling will be counted on heavily here as he gets the start for Dodger Blue. His last time out, Stripling allowed just one run on four hits in 5 IP. He faces a Phillies lineup that has scored four or fewer runs in five of its last six games. This is an ideal matchup for Stripling, who has already seen the Under go 6-1-1 his L8 starts. 

But if Philadelphia has an "ace in the hole" here, it would be starter Aaron Nola, who has been lights out of late. Nola has a 0.76 ERA his L5 starts having allowed only 3 ER in 35 2/3 IP! He's the first Phillies pitcher to allow 1 ER or less in five straight starts since Cole Hamels pulled it off back in 2014. The Dodgers have not had to face Nola previously here in 2019, which has worked to their advantage, but this should easily end up as their lowest scoring game of the series. As for the Phillies, the Under is 19-4-4 the last 27 times they've played a 4th game in a series. 8* Under Dodgers/Phillies

8* Under Padres/Marlins (12:10 ET): Prior to last night, every game played this year between the Padres and Marlins either went Over or pushed. But last night's 3-2 win by the Padres bucked that trend and I'm expecting another low-scoring game this afternoon as the teams wrap up this series. Miami took Tuesday's opener by a score of 12-7, but that's in no way indicative of what we expect them to produce at the plate on a nightly basis. The Marlins remain the NL's lowest scoring team (at 3.7 rpg) and the Padres aren't too far ahead. Take the Under here. 

Last night's win by San Diego snapped a four-game losing streak. They got a brilliant start from Chris Paddack, who took a no-hitter into the eighth. Miami ended up scoring twice, once in the eighth and once in the ninth, but it hardly mattered. The Padres got all three of their runs in one inning, two of them coming on one swing of the bat. Note Tuesday's game is the only time this month than San Diego has topped five runs. Both previous starts made by Tuesday starter Dinelson Lamet have stayed Under and after he faced both the Braves and Dodgers, this should be a relative "walk in the park" for Lamet. 

The Padres are actually a higher scoring team on the road, but today sees them running into Miami's Caleb Smith, who has been incredibly effective here at home. Smith is 4-1 here w/ a 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP. His effectiveness has led to trade rumors, though the Marlins are denying them. Smith has held opposing hitters to a .197 average and .267 OBP w/ a 94-26 KW rate in 78 IP. So I expect the San Diego offense to be held in check tonight. Lamet was once thought of as the future ace of the Padres' rotation and this shapes up as a good old fashioned pitchers' duel. 8* Under Padres/Marlins

10* Under Tigers/Indians (7:05 ET): Cleveland is a massive ML favorite here and why wouldn't they be? After an 8-0 shutout last night, they are now 10-1 against the Tigers in 2019 and there's no reason to believe the home team won't win again tonight. Detroit is a truly wretched outfit this season as their poor 29-61 record only begins to tell the story of a team that has been outscored by 169 runs. They are dead last in all of baseball in runs scored. I can't possibly play Cleveland at the current price, but I can play the Under and will! 

Now some of you may recall that I played the Over in Monday's series opener. That game ended up being an 8-6 final. So the Indians have scored eight runs in both games so far, but I'm looking for a lower offensive output today. Spencer Turnbull starts tonight for the Tigers and he's actually been one of their better pitchers, particularly on the road where his ERA is 3.14. Seven of Turnbull's nine road starts have stayed Under. He allowed only two runs on five hits the last time he pitched here at Progressive Field.

The Tigers have been shutout nine times this year, four by the Indians and incredibly three of those four shutouts have come in Turnbull starts! It figures to be another long night at the plate for the visitors as they are to face Mike Clevinger, a 200+ strikeout pitcher from a year ago who has a 0.53 ERA and 0.706 in three home starts this season. He's allowed just one run and six hits in those three starts, which have spanned 17 IP. Not only were the Tigers shut out last night, they had only one hit. There's no reason to believe they'll do much offensively tonight and the Indians should have this one wrapped up w/o having to play the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Tigers/Indians

8* Under Giants/Rockies (3:10 ET): I've had some success playing totals at Coors Field over the last week. Given the reputation of the ballpark, you'd figure I'd be inclined to bet the Over and that's precisely what I did w/ last week's top O/U release as the Rockies and Reds combined for 26 runs here (Rockies LOST 19-7). But the Rockies haven't done much scoring in their current series, totaling only seven runs in three games against the Giants. As a result, they're 0-3, including an 8-4 loss last night. I'm on the Under today as the Rockies look to avoid the sweep.

Last night's final score is misleading in the sense that the game went to extra innings (Giants scored 4 in the 10th) and was a 2-1 game heading into the 8th. The Rockies tied things up at 4-4 w/ a three-run ninth, but it was not to be as they lost for a third time in two days to San Francisco. The teams played a doubleheader Monday w/ the Giants winning 19-2 and 2-1. So as you can see, Colorado really hasn't done much scoring. Until the ninth inning yday, they'd scored only four runs in 26 innings against Giants pitching. Yet the total is still really high today. 

The good news for Colorado today is that they have Jon Gray on the mound. He has a 4-1 record and 3.26 ERA in eight starts at Coors this season, which is quite respectable. It's not like the Giants have a strong lineup. Game 1 of the doubleheader on Monday was a complete aberration. While there's been a recent increase in scoring, they still rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Under is 7-1 in those eight home starts made by Gray as well. Facing a rookie making his Coors debut (Shaun Anderson), the Rockies will probably score more today. But not enough to send this one Over. 8* Under Giants/Rockies

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies are facing the prospect of getting swept in a four-game series in their home ballpark. They and the Giants played a doubleheader Monday and while the second game was certainly close (lost 2-1), the first was most definitely NOT (lost 19-2). Last night was closer than the 8-4 final suggests as the game went into extra innings after a three-run Colorado rally in the bottom of the ninth. But still, they gave up four runs in the 10th and lost for the fourth time in the last five games. I can't see the Rockies being swept though. Not by the Giants. 

You do have to expect the hitting will start to improve for Colorado. They average 6.6 runs per game here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home of any team in baseball, which is not surprising given the repuatation of the park itself. Today, they face a rookie (Shaun Anderson) that will be pitching for the very first time in Coors. It's not as if Anderson's numbers are all that impressive as he's got 6.13 ERA and 1.772 WHIP his L3 starts, even though the Giants have won all three games. Their scoring is due to subside here as they rank 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS.

Jon Gray gives his team what I feel is a sizable edge today. He's actually 4-1 w/ a 3.26 ERA in eight home starts, which is very good all things considered. The team's record in those eight starts is 6-2 and seven of them have actually stayed Under. Gray's last start was here in Coors and was a quality one as he held the Reds to two runs in seven innings. He also beat Clayton Kershaw here, 5-3, late last month in another quality effort. Gray has faced the Giants twice this season, both times in San Francisco, and allowed only one run and nine hits in 12 2/3 IP. 8* Colorado

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were totally embarrassed by the Giants yesterday, getting swept in a doubleheader and scoring only three runs in the hitter-friendly home park. The first game of the day-night twinbill was especially humiliating as they lost 19-2! The second game, while closer, was no less painful as it brought a 2-1 defeat. That brought the Giants to 19-10 in one-run games this year and 45-49 overall, masking the fact that this team has been outscored by 45 runs. This is a really good price on Colorado at home as they're out for revenge. 

It wasn't that long ago that Rockies' starter Pete Lambert was being touted as a prized prospect. His first two big league starts (both against the Cubs) went really well as he allowed only two runs and seven hits across 12 innings. But in the four subsequent outings, the wheels have come off a bit. Two were against the Dodgers and three came here at Coors. I think it's far too soon to give up on this rookie though and the Giants have never faced him before. Also, while SF enters tonight on a three-game win streak, be aware that they are just 2-6 this season when on a streak of that length.  

I just can't see the Rockies losing again here after being swept in a doubleheader yday. As much concern as there may be over Lambert, I can't foresee the Giants' Drew Pomeranz pitching well tonight. He has a 9.76 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road to begin with and Coors is obviously the toughest venue in the league to pitch. Five of Pomeranz's last six starts have come at home, including the last three. In his previous two road starts, he has allowed a total of 15 ER in just 5 2/3 IP. The Rockies are 8-3 their L11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Colorado 

8* Over Pirates/Cardinals (8:15 ET): St. Louis shut Pittsburgh out last night, 7-0. Not to "toot my own horn," but a Pirates' downfall is something I projected long ago and that's exactly what has taken place. The Bucs are 0-4 since the All-Star Break and have scored only 10 runs. They are a team that has had a poor run differential most of the year (currently -55) so the fact they've been able to stay within a few games of .500 in a wide open division seems extremely fortunate. For tonight, I'll call for them to at least put some runs on the board. Now that may not mean victory, but I do see this NL Central matchup going Over the total.

St. Louis has climbed past Milwaukee into second place in the crowded Central by virtue of winning their last three games. Only five teams have allowed fewer runs this season, so last night's shutout win can hardly be described as "shocking." But the Redbirds also had Miles Mikolas on the hill Monday and he tends to pitch very well here at Busch Stadium. Now the same could be said for tonight's starter Jack Flaherty, however his last start here at home did NOT go well as he allowed seven runs in just 4 2/3 IP and that was to an American League lineup (Oakland) playing w/o its DH. 

The Pirates have been one of the top Over teams in all of baseball this season. Their O/U record is 54-35-3, making them one of only three teams to go Over in at least 60% of their games. They went into the All-Star Break having gone Over in five straight. Tonight Dario Agrazal will get the start. While he's been satisfactory so far, it's a small sample size of only three starts. Agrazal has gotten a TON of run support his last two times out w/ the Pirates scoring 26 runs in those games. The Over is 23-6 in Pittsburgh's last 29 games off a loss. 8* Over Pirates/Cardinals

10* Over White Sox/Royals (8:15 ET): This is an interesting matchup. Because while Chicago is 11.5 games AHEAD of KC in the AL Central, that happens to be as misleading as any deficit in the entire MLB standings. The Royals actually have the better YTD run differential (-85 vs. -90) and thus it was not a shock to me to see them take last night's series opener, 5-2. The fact that the White Sox come in favored for a second straight day seems a bit "off" to me, but this is a game where I expect both clubs to score in bunches and thus Over is my call for Tuesday. 

At least the White Sox had Lucas Giolito on the mound last night. That alone probably justified the oddsmakers' line, but it didn't matter as Chicago did little offensively and Giolito lost to the Royals for the 1st time in his career. Starting tonight will be the unproven Dylan Cease, whose only previous big league start saw him allow three runs in 5 IP to a Detroit team that has scored the fewest # of runs in the American League. The game, which took place 12 days ago, was a 7-5 final in the White Sox favor and did go Over the total. 

Chicago hasn't won since the All-Star Break, so the regression that their run differential seemed to indicate would happen, has taken hold. Meanwhile, KC has improved its standing by winning three of four since the Break. But they'll need to bring their bats today w/ Glenn Sparkman on the bump as he has a 10.43 ERA and 2.045 WHIP his L3 starts. Now all three came on the road and he has pitched better at home. But the Over is 17-6-2 in KC's last 25 home games vs. a team w/ a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. The White Sox are 17-28 away from Guaranteed Rate Field. 10* Over White Sox/Royals

8* Under D'backs/Rangers (8:05 ET): Though it's been established that Arizona is a better team on the road this year and Texas can certainly score too, I see this Interleague matchup staying Under on Tuesday. That may seem counter-intuitive given the offensive increase from the Diamondbacks on the road and they're getting a DH added to the lineup here. But in the end, we've got two quality starting pitchers set to face off and that should make for a lower scoring game than anticipated. Take the Under. 

Arizona has seen its last six games all stay Under. Over the weekend, they lost two of three out in St. Louis. They scored only eight runs in the three games. Despite being just .500 overall, the D'backs do have the NL's 4th best run differential, which is surprising. Only five teams in the NL have surrendered fewer runs. Today they turn to Alex Young, whose first two starts have gone very well. He's allowed just 1 run in 11 IP and his last time out saw him toss six no-hit innings! Both starts resulted in easy Unders and I'm counting on Young holding the Rangers' lineup in check here. The Arizona staff has allowed a .197 BA its L7 games. 

Texas is one of the bigger surprises in the American League as they're in the Wild Card hunt after back to back losing seasons. Now they were swept by Houston to start the second half while giving up 27 runs in the process (Over hit in all three games). But Lance Lynn has been one of the Rangers' best pitchers this season and he goes tonight. Lynn is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. He's also unbeaten (8-0) in 10 starts here in Arlington. Having spent time in the National League, he's had plenty of success in the past vs. Arizona, going 6-0 w/ a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts against them. Earlier this year, in Phoenix, he held them to one run and four hits in 6 IP. 8* Under D'backs/Rangers

8* Under Padres/Marlins (7:10 ET): The last time we saw Miami's Jordan Yamamoto, he did his job in holding Atlanta (a good offensive team!) scoreless over six innings of two-hit ball. Even though the Marlins ended up losing that game 1-0, the result was fine for me as I had Yamamoto and the Fish +1.5 on the run line. As Yamamoto is set to make his sixth start of the season (3-0 w/ 1.86 ERA, 0.931 WHIP), I will again call for him to pitch well as tonight he faces a floundering San Diego club which got swept (by Atlanta) to start the second half. But of course, we must be wary of the lack of offense from Miami as well. So I'm taking the Under in what should be a low-scoring game. 

The Marlins have in fact scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. There was a point, early on, when they were on pace to score the fewest runs in a season going all the way back to the "Dead Ball era." Things have picked up some, but they still only average 3.6 rpg and they've scored a fewer number here at home compared to the road. Tonight they're going up against Logan Allen, who had looked good in his first two starts before a shaky one on July 1st vs. San Francisco. I think he'll be fine here against a Marlins lineup that produced only 2 runs in each of its last two games. 

San Diego has seen the Under hit in six of its last seven contests w/ them failing to score more than five runs in any of those contests. They've crossed the plate just 21 times during that stretch, so this is an ideal matchup for Yamamoto, who hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts so far. The only drawback for the Marlins here seems to be their anemic offense as the Padres have done a good job at limiting runs recently, giving up only 34 in those L7 games. The Under is also 6-2-1 in Miami's last nine overall. 8* Under Padres/Marlins

8* Under Braves/Brewers (8:10 ET): Other than the Dodgers (who were our *10* Game of the Week last night!), I'm not sure who else is all that good in the National League. Atlanta would probably like to lay claim to being the Senior Circuit's 2nd best ballclub, but I'm forecasting a fairly mediocre second half of the season for them. Now that may be enough to make the playoffs or even win their division. As for the Brewers, they fancy themselves as contenders, but have been outscored this season and dropped seven of their last 10 games. I'm on the Under in this series opener. 

The Braves are a team known for their offensive prowess, but like most teams they score fewer runs on the road. Their second half began w/ a sweep out in San Diego where they scored 16 runs in three games. But don't discount the effect of moving West to East for this next series. As for limiting their opponent's offense tonight, Max Fried may not seem like an ideal candidate given his recent string of performances. However, be aware that back in May Fried held the Brew Crew scoreless for six innings of two-hit ball. He won't have to face Ryan Braun tonight either as Braun is out of the Milwaukee lineup so that he can attend the funeral of a friend. 

Today will be a "bullpen day" for the Brewers with Adam Houser opening. Considering how poorly Milwaukee relievers performed in the last series (vs. SF) and how Houser has looked, again, this may not seem like an ideal setup for an Under. However, I look for Brewers pitching to be better here than it was over the weekend against the Giants. The Under is 41-19-2 their L62 games vs. an opponent w/ a win percentage of .600 or greater. 8* Under Braves/Brewers

10* Over Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians were able to at least salvage one win in their three-game set w/ the 1st place Twins, winning Sunday by a score of 4-3. This figures to be an easier series as they've already taken eight of nine from the last place Tigers this season. As I had previously projected, the bottom has really fallen out w/ this Detroit ballclub as they've dropped 16 of the last 19 games. But they too won Sunday, achieving a season-high in both runs scored (12) and hits (19) in avoiding a sweep at Kansas City. I've got this game going Over the total. 

The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of the American League, which has led to them now having the second worst run differential in all of baseball (-159). But they give up their fair share as well, which is why they're now 30 games below .500. Monday's starter Daniel Norris gave up six runs in his last start just as he did the last time he faced Cleveland. The Indians have scored 62 runs in the nine games so far against the Tigers, an average of nearly 7.0 per game. Norris has a 4.37 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Cleveland and is winless his L10 starts overall (0-6). The Over is 7-2 in Detroit's last nine games. 

Adam Plutko has been a bit of a surprise in the Indians' rotation, but he doesn't go very deep into games and has had some bad outings. He allowed 2 HR's when he faced the Tigers in Detroit last month. He's been used as both a starter and reliever this season and the last time we saw him was June 28th, a game the Indians lost 13-0 (to Baltimore!). Plutko allowed five runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 IP that day.  While every game in the Minnesota series stayed Under, the Over is 36-14-2 the L52 times the Indians have played host to the Tigers. 10* Over Tigers/Indians

10* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Though they've certainly had their share of issues beating the Red Sox, the Dodgers are the better team this year. They look to be an extraordinary value Sunday night w/ Hyun-Jin Ryu starting. Ryu was arguably the top starter in all of baseball in the first half, earning him starting honors for the National League in Tuesday's Midsummer Classic. After going down in just five games in LY's World Series and dropping Friday's opener 8-1, the Dodgers got the best of the Red Sox last night, winning 11-2. Behind Ryu, they make it two in a row tonight and take the series.

Ryu's numbers from the first half were just incredible. He has a MLB-best 1.73 ERA in 17 starts as well as a 0.908 WHIP. Save for one bad start at the most hitter-friendly park in the game (Coors Field), Ryu has allowed 2 ER or fewer in EVERY start this season! His 1st half concluded with six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Padres. While pitching at Fenway will present a greater challenge than most of his starts (there's a DH too), Ryu should be up for it. Something else to consider here is that Boston is now just 1-7 this season at home when they are priced between +125 and -125.

David Price came out on the winning end of Game 2 of LY's World Series opposite Ryu and has emerged as the de facto ace of the Red Sox starting rotation this year, primarily due to the surprising struggles of yesterday's loser Chris Sale. There's no denying that Price has pitched well in his own right; he's just not been as good as Ryu. Nor have the Red Sox been as good as the Dodgers in 2019. LA has not only the best record (61-33) in all of baseball, they also have the best run differential (+131). Boston actually has a losing record at Fenway (21-23) this year and is just +56 in run differential. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Under White Sox/A's (4:07 ET): Oakland has taken the first two games of this three-game set and is heavily favored to make it a three-game sweep. Given that, it's highly unlikely that we'll be playing a full nine innings here as the home team figures to have the lead going into the ninth inning. While certainly not guaranteed, I'll work on that assumption here. The White Sox might only be four games below .500 entering Sunday, but don't let that fool you into thinking they've been all that competitive. Their YTD run differential is actually -86, which is bottom five in all of baseball. They've managed only three runs so far in this series and are 28th in runs scored. Take the Under. 

Of course, while not likely, there's always a chance Chicago wins this game. It doesn't look good though after they gave up 13 runs to the A's yday. But I don't think they'll be giving up anywhere close to that number this afternoon. It was a seven-run 1st inning by Oakland that really put the White Sox behind the proverbial "8-ball" yesterday. The Chicago bullpen was actually fine. That's good news in case if Sunday's starter Reynaldo Lopez were to falter. But I don't think that he will considering Lopez has allowed 3 ER or less in his last three starts away from home. 

No matter who wins or how much Oakland is limited offensively today, Under remains the clear call. The White Sox simply have not been able to do anything offensively in this series. Both runs yday came against Oakland reliever Blake Treinen. That came on the heels of them scoring just once on five hits in Friday's opener. A's starter Brett Anderson looked very good in his L2 starts before the All-Star Break, giving up only two runs on seven hits in 14 IP. Oakland is allowing only 3.9 runs per game at home this year, which is one of the lowest marks in all of baseball. It would be nice if we avoid the bottom of the ninth here, but either way this shapes up as a low-scoring game. 8* Under White Sox/A's

8* Under Reds/Rockies (3:10 ET): So we know what happened here yesterday. Despite a very high number (14.0!), my Total of the Week was on the Over. The Reds & Rockies ended up combining for 26 runs (Reds won 17-9), which makes it six weeks in a row that I've won my Total of the Week in MLB. But for Sunday, I'm actually taking the Under. It's not like an Under would be w/o precedent. Friday's series opener was a 3-2 Colorado win and today's starting pitching matchup looks to be a lot more promising than yday's. Take the Under. 

The scoring came early and often Saturday night, perhaps a byproduct of a 3+ hour rain delay affecting the respective starters. Cincinnati's Tanner Roark gave up four runs in the 1st inning and was pulled after 4 2/3 after allowing 7 runs and 13 hits. Colorado's Kyle Freeland was no better, giving up five runs and nine hits in just four innings. The Reds had not one, but two five-run innings last night, enabling them to rally from the early 4-0 hole. Overall, the teams combined for not only 26 runs, but also 39 hits. For many reasons, I don't think we'll be seeing anything close to that kind of offensive outburst today. 

Now the Reds' Tyler Mahle has not won on the road all year. He has an 0-10 TSR and it's not like his individual numbers have been good. But they haven't been particularly bad either and despite pitching in Coors, I think he can somewhat limit the damage. Since the start of May, Mahle hasn't allowed more than 4 ER in any start. Remember than Sonny Gray pitched surprisingly well here on Friday for the visitors, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in the NL. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela went 4-1 in June w/ a 3.44 ERA. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last eight outings. 8* Under Reds/Rockies 

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets finally beat the Marlins yday, 4-2, thanks to a tiebreaking two-run HR from Robinson Cano. They also got seven strong innings from Noah Syndergaard. They should again beat their division rival on Sunday as Jacob deGrom is starting. If you look at the early line movement for today's matchup, I think you'd agree that this number was set far too low. The thing is while the Mets had lost four in a row to the Marlins (prior to yday's win), they'd actually taken the season's first five head to head matchups. deGrom looks like a lock today. Take the Mets. 

Somehow, the Mets have gone 19-31 w/ deGrom starting the L2 seasons. To call that "head-scratching" would be a mild understatement. deGrom won the Cy Young last year in spite of his team, but this year has somehow shaped up as even more disappointing as the Mets are just 5-13 in his starts. But deGrom continues to pitch relatively well. His numbers may not be as good as they were last year, but he still sports a 2.68 ERA and 0.979 WHIP over his last seven starts, all quality ones. He's allowed 3 ER or less NINE straight times, including a strong effort vs. Philly (gave up just two runs on three hits in seven innings) in his last start before the All-Star Break. 

In the last series between these teams (back in May), which ended up being a 3-game Miami sweep, Sandy Alcantara tossed a complete game shutout. But don't let that fool you. It was easily Alcantara's best start of the season as he still has a 1.401 WHIP in 2019. The Marlins are just 6-11 when he starts, including 2-7 here at home. Alcantara's margin for error here is very small as Miami has the lowest scoring lineup in the entire National League set to face deGrom, who is long overdue for a win. 6* NY Mets

10* Over Reds/Rockies (8:10 ET): It was a rare low-scoring game last night here at Coors Field w/ the host Rockies prevailing 3-2 over the Reds. You have to remember that over the first half of the season, Colorado both scored and allowed 6.9 runs per game. The Reds bring the NL's top pitching staff (in terms of # of runs allowed) to Denver this weekend, but Saturday starter Tanner Roark is not a big reason why they are leading in that department. Meanwhile, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has REALLY been struggling this year. So I expect the balls to resume flying tonight here at Coors and I'm on the Over. 

We know there's a major difference between the Rockies' offense on the road and here at home. It's been that way for the franchise's entire existence. But even by that quarter century standard, 2019 is shaping up to be one of the sharpest home vs. road splits ever. On the road, the Rockies are averaging just 4.2 runs per game. It's a 2.6 rpg jump here at home. Thus, it was pretty impressive to see the Reds hold them to only three runs last night. But w/ Roark allowing 3 HRs his last time out, I don't see him keeping this lineup down for a 2nd straight day. 

Of course, the effect Coors has on Colorado's pitchers is just as pronounced as what's felt by the hitters. Kyle Freeland knows all about this. He has a 9.31 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in six starts here this season. Things got so bad for Freeland that he had to spend the last six weeks in the minors to figure things out. It was a terrible May for him w/ a 10.17 ERA in six starts and he allowed 11 HR's. All six starts happened to go Over the total. Freeland has a 6.11 ERA in three previous starts against Cincinnati, so there's no reason to expect him to pitch any better tonight. This should be a really high scoring game. 10* Over Reds/Rockies

8* Under Dodgers/Red Sox (7:15 ET): So, it was an all-too familiar result for the Dodgers last night here in Fenway Park. They lost to the Red Sox 8-1, reminiscent of last year's World Series, which saw them eliminated in just five games. They're now 1-6 all-time in regular season games here in Boston, plus the two losses in LY's Fall Classic. Now on a four-game losing streak overall, their longest losing skid since April, the Dodgers will try and be better under the bright lights of FOX for tonight's nationally televised contest. But, unfortunately, I see some of the issues persisting for them. Take the Under here. 

Despite adding a DH to a lineup that already averages a healthy number (5.2) of runs per game, LA could do little offensively against Eduardo Rodriguez, who struck out 10 and allowed just five hits in 7 IP. Tonight, the Dodgers will have to go up against Chris Sale. While this may not be a banner season (so far) for Sale, he is still a pitcher to be respected. A 1.075 WHIP for the year shows me that he's pitched better than most realize and the Under is 6-0 the L6 times he's pitched against a team w/ a winning record. (I shouldn't have to mention that the Dodgers are 60-33 entering Saturday). 

The Dodgers' surprising lack of scoring here in Boston isn't just confined to last night. They scored just six runs in the two losses here in LY's WS. They've now scored only seven runs total during their four-game losing streak. Trying to help them out of this hole will be Saturday starter Ross Stripling, who has seen the Under go 6-0-1 in his previous seven starts. Stripling has a bit of an extended history of Unders as well; his last 24 road starts have seen an Under mark of 16-5-3 while he's also 12-2-2 the L16 times he's started on 5+ days rest. 8* Under Dodgers/Red Sox

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Though the NL Central remains a crowded race (all 5 teams still alive!), the Cubs are simply a much better team than the Pirates. That's reflected in the odds here, but I have zero hesitation taking the Cubs in this price range. They took Friday's opener, 4-3, despite blowing a three-run lead and that may end up being the Pirates' best chance to steal a game in this series. Yes, the Bucs did take three of four last weekend from the Cubbies. But that was at PNC Park. Here at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley, the home team is 30-16 and holding visitors to 3.8 rpg (2nd fewest in the league). Like I said earlier, zero hesitation in backing the Cubs this afternoon. 

Everyone else in the division lost yday, so the Cubs now have a 1.5-game lead on the field. They're 3.5 games ahead of the Pirates, but that's misleading considering the Cubs have outscored opponents by 56 runs this year (3rd best in NL) while the Pirates are looking at a -37 run differential (tied for 4th worst). The Cubs are now 16-5 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season and will send Jon Lester to the bump Saturday afternoon. Lester has a 7-2 TSR w/ a 2.42 ERA at home this season and the Pirates are a team he's generally pitched well against in his career (3.12 ERA in 19 starts).

Pittsburgh goes w/ Jordan Lyles, who was not pitching well before the Break. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.077 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up seven runs to the Cubs on July 4th. Regulars may recall that I played against the Lyles & the Pirates that day and the result was the team's only loss of that series (11-3). Lyles allowed 3 HR's in the loss and has now allowed at least one long ball in five straight outing. The Pirates have been a pure fade on my end for the last several weeks and that's unlikely to change in the 2nd half. 7* Chi Cubs

7* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Perhaps the All-Star Break came at the WRONG time for the Giants considering they'd won six of seven. That has them over .500 since June 1st, but this is still a last place team w/ a lot of holes and the second worst run differential (-70) in the National League. They've been pretty fortunate to go 18-9 in one-run games so far, the 2nd best record in that situation, behind only division rival San Diego. Milwaukee may have limped into the Break having lost five of six, but they are the better team here and priced accordingly. 

Almost everyone is alive in the NL Wild Card hunt and you can count the Brewers among those on the list. The Brew Crew were actually leading the NL Central before skidding into the Break. This despite a negative run differential on the year. But now they're back at Miller Park where they own a 27-18 record. Chase Anderson gets the nod Friday and he has pitched well in five of his six starts this year, including a quality effort in San Francisco back on June 16th. That was the Brewers only win in that series, but you should expect a better result after this weekend has concluded. 

Another Anderson will start here for SF, that being Shaun, who has a high WHIP. This Anderson lasted all of four innings his last time out and gave up four runs. The Giants still won the game, 7-5 over Arizona, but don't credit the starting pitching there. Anderson has allowed between 2 and 4 ER in all 10 of his starts this year. His counterpart has a 3.00 ERA his L3 starts, having allowed just 5 runs in 15 IP. To me, Milwaukee is simply the better team here. They're at home and the Giants likely lost "momentum" by the Break coming at an inopportune time. The Giants are 53-112 their L165 road games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 7* Milwaukee

8* Under Astros/Rangers (8:05 ET): It was not the return from the Break that the Astros were looking for last night as they were blanked by the Rangers 5-0. For Texas, it was sweet revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered back in May. That was up in Houston though. While the Rangers are potent offensively, particularly in their home ballpark, tonight they're up against Gerrit Cole, which means they're likely to struggle to score runs. But Jesse Chavez has proven to be a worthy adversary for Cole, so like last night I see this one staying Under the total. 

Cole needs little introduction as he's one of the top starters in the game. He comes in sporting a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which were Houston wins and stayed Under. In fact, his L4 starts have all been Houston wins & Under as Cole has allowed a total of just three runs in 26 IP during that time. The last time he faced Texas, Cole struck out 12 and allowed just one run and four hits over six innings. There was a bad start earlier this year here in Arlington, but considering how he's pitched recently, I'd expect Cole to be at the top of his game here. 

The Astros couldn't score yday against Lance Lynn, even though their lineup is now healthier than it's been in some time. Chavez has made seven starts this year, though somehow only one has been here at Globe Life Park. It came in May, back when he was being used as an "opener." Chavez allowed no runs in that role and then his first time as a traditional starter saw him give up just one unearned run against the Tigers. The last two starts before the Break weren't quite as good, but don't be surprised if he comes up big tonight. The Under is 19-9 in the Rangers' last 28 home games. 8* Under Astros/Rangers

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): So this is a revenge spot for New York. Back in May, they were swept in embarrassing fashion down here in Miami (shutout twice). Overall, it's been yet another wildly disappointing season in Queens as the Metropolitans are 10 games below .500 and went into the All Star Break as losers of 9 of their last 12. But based on the revenge angle alone, they are worth a look here as they are a better team than Miami, who is last in the NL East and last in runs scored in the entire National League. Despite the sweep back in May, the Mets are 5-3 against the Marlins this season and hold a 40-28 edge in runs scored in those eight head to head meetings. 

The Mets will go w/ Jason Vargas as the starter to open the 2nd half. He's had plenty of recent success against Miami, beating them three times since the start of last season. He's got a 3.27 ERA in four career starts against them. As I already stated, Miami is the NL's lowest scoring team at just 3.5 rpg. They went into the Break averaging only 2.7 over the L7 games. Vargas has yet to allow more than 4 ER in any start this year and has allowed more than 3 ER only one time and that was back in April. The Marlins have been unable to score more than two runs off Vargas the L3 times they've faced him. 

While Miami's Caleb Smith has pitched a lot better here at home than he has on the road, I still expect him to struggle some this evening. It was a successful return (sort of) for Smith as he started last week for the first time since spending a month on the DL. He gave up four runs in six innings, but the Marlins still managed to beat the Braves 5-4 as a big underdog. But the home run ball remains an issue for Smith as he gave up a pair vs. Atlanta and has now allowed seven in his L3 starts overall. Smith was a loser the only other time he faced the Mets this year. 8* NY Mets

10* Washington (6:05 ET): The last time these NL East rivals faced off was last month and the Nationals swept the three-game series. It was in D.C. and the Nats won by scores of 2-0, 6-2 and 7-4. That's pretty indicative of how the last month or so has gone for each team. Washington, who I said would be one of the more improved teams this season, has gone 28-11 since May 24th to move into Wild Card position. The Phillies still occupy the 2nd WC spot, but they have gone just 14-21 their L35 games. Unfortunately for Philly, I see more of the same to open the second half of the season.

It wasn't necessarily a popular take to say the Nats would improve in 2019. After all, they lost Bryce Harper to the Phillies. But Harper has been overrated for some time now and is having a very disappointing campaign so far in the City of Brotherly Love. While he has the team lead in RBI's (62), Harper failed to make the All-Star team and has struck out 105 times (4th most) while batting just .253. Meanwhile, the Nationals actually scored more runs in the 1st half this year than they did in the 1H of 2018 w/ Harper in their lineup.

Stephen Strasburg starting Friday's opener is perhaps the biggest reason to like Washington in this spot. Not only has he won his L3 starts overall as well as going 7-1 his L9, but he's 12-2 (2.52 ERA) in 25 previous turns vs. the Phillies. His last start before the Break saw Strasburg strike out a season-high 14 batters while allowing just two hits in 7+ scoreless frames. Unfortunately for the Phillies, Nick Pivetta hasn't been anywhere near as sharp of late nor does he usually perform well vs. Washington. Winless over his last four outings (7.33 ERA), Pivetta is also 1-6 all-time vs. the Nats w/ a 10.80 ERA. He's 0-2 against them this season, both disastrous performances, as he's allowed 13 runs in 9 IP. 10* Washington

8* Over Nationals/Phillies (6:05 ET): Full disclosure - I also like the Nats in this game. But I like it to go Over as well as Washington should certainly be able to "tee off" at the expense of struggling Phillies starter Nick Pivetta. Not only has Pivetta been bad lately, as he's winless over his last four starts (7.33 ERA), but in addition to that the Nats have had his number. Pivetta is 1-6 all-time vs. Washington w/ a 10.80 ERA. That includes two disastrous performances this season where he's given up a total of 13 runs in 9 IP. Like I said at the outset, this one seems destined to go Over. 

The Nationals went into the All-Star Break having won 28 of their last 39 games and are now the top Wild Card team in the National League. It's a far cry from when the team was 19-31 and really floundering. But as I anticipated, things have really improved in the Nation's Capital and it doesn't seem like they miss the overrated Bryce Harper (who, of course, now plays for the Phillies) at all. The Nats actually scored more runs in the 1st Half this year than they did LY w/ Harper in the lineup. More good news, for this game, is that they also have a higher rpg average on the road than at home. 

Philly averages 5.2 rpg at home, so even though they typically struggle against Stephen Strasburg, I wouldn't expect them to be shutout tonight. But the real key here is Washington getting to Pivetta, who has really struggled all season, but moreso recently. There have been three times so far where Pivetta has allowed 6+ ER. One was at Coors Field, the other two were against the Nationals. He's also given up at least four runs in four consecutive starts and not made it a full six innings in any of the last three. 8* Over Nationals/Phillies

10* Under Rockies/D'backs (4:10 ET): I've certainly had my "finger on the pulse" of this series in taking Arizona and the Under the L2 days. Both plays were winners as the D'backs have won 8-0 and 4-2. For today's finale, I'll come back w/ the Under as my view of the two teams hasn't changed one iota. The home vs. road splits for both teams are quite drastic with Arizona being shockingly much weaker offensively here at Chase Field. Meanwhile, Colorado's identity for the last quarter century has been marked by a large offensive decline outside Coors Field. 

We know the Rockies offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), they are averaging only 4.3 rpg on the road. Having scored all of two runs in the first two games in this series, there's little reason to expect much offense from them today. As for the D'backs, they average only 4.5 rpg at home compared to 5.6 rpg on the road, which is just plain odd. The L7 games overall have seen them top 4 runs only once.

It's not just that the Colorado offensive nosedives away from Coors Field, their pitching also gets much better. Today's starter German Marquez is a fine example of this as he has a 0.857 WHIP on the road. He's also a strikeout machine w/ a 120-27 KW rate this year. Marquez will need to be at his best here as the Rockies are dead last in MLB in both batting average and OPS on the road. The top four hitters in the lineup have gone 4 for 28 w/ 12 K's in this series. Today they're up against Alex Young, who has made just one big league start previous to this, back on 6.27 and he held the Giants to one run and three hits in 5 IP. So I expect him to pitch well here. 10* Under Rockies/D'backs

8* Under Cardinals/Giants (4:05 ET): San Francisco beat St. Louis last night, 8-4, thus going Over for a sixth straight games (7-0-1 Over L8). This is highly irregular for a club that ranks 27th in MLB in runs scored as well as 30th (last) in team batting average and 28th in OPS. For the year, they're averaging only 3.4 runs per game at home, which is substantially less than the 5.0 rpg they average on the road. I sense this final game before the All-Star Break is set to be lower scoring than anticipated as it's only a matter of time before the Giants' offense comes back down to Earth. Take the Under. 

Now neither starting pitcher for today's game has great numbers. But San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija comes in off a strong outing, one in which he allowed only two runs in eight innings. That was in San Diego as the Giants ended up rolling to a 13-2 victory. It was one of three straight games where SF scored 10 or more runs and they've scored at least seven in five of the last six games. Again, this is highly irregular production for a team not known for putting runs on the board. There have been two times previous to this where the Giants have gone Over in six straight games. They've gone Under the next game both times, scoring just two runs total in those games. 

Another positive for Samardzija is that he's held St. Louis' best hitter (Paul Goldschmidt) to a .229 average the 35 times he's faced him. As for keeping the Giants' suddenly surging offense in check, that falls on Jack Flaherty, who has struggled of late. But his last two starts were both against American League lineups. The last time Flaherty faced a NL lineup was 6.18 vs. Miami and he allowed just three runs in 7 IP. The Marlins' offensive numbers are actually quite similar to those of the Giants. The Under is 6-2-1 the L9 times St. Louis has been off a loss. 8* Under Cardinals/Giants

8* Chi Cubs (2:10 ET): I took the Cubs yday as my biggest play of the 1st half of the MLB season and they delivered just as expected, beating the White Sox 6-3. The only reason we were able to get such a great price on the North Side contingent was due to the presence of Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox. Having now beaten him, the Cubbies will have a far easier time today going against Ivan Nova, who has been very poor at home this season. A lot of the rationale for playing the Cubs Sunday will be similar to yday, only this time we're going against a much weaker starting pitcher! 

As noted in yday's analysis, I am incredibly bearish on the White Sox moving forward. While it's surprising to see them within three games of .500, the fact is that they've been outscored this season by 73 runs. There's a big difference between their actual & expected number of wins, the latter based around their run differential. In terms of exceeding expected win total, the White Sox' gap is actually the largest in all of baseball. As for the Cubs, they are now 32-15 their L47 Interleague games and averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg on the road. With a DH at their disposal for this game, they should have little difficulty knocking around Nova. 

Nova is 0-4 in his seven home starts this year w/ an 8.31 ERA and 1.731 WHIP. The Cubs have a little revenge on their minds here as Nova beat them at Wrigley back on June 18th. But you can certainly expect a different outcome today as the Cubs look to go into the All-Star Break in first place in the NL Central. They'll give the baseball to Kyle Hendricks, who looked fine on Tuesday in his return from the DL. Hendricks has a 10-2 TSR when starting on exactly four days rest. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Under Indians/Reds (1:10 ET): All things considered, it's been a pretty frustrating first half for the Reds. While they're only 4.5 games out of first place in the (very) crowded NL Central, the fact is their WL record "should" be better as they've actually outscored opponents by 37 runs due to having allowed the fewest # of runs in the entire Senior Circuit. You'd think that would serve them well in a battle w/ an American League team that often struggles to score runs and is w/o its DH. But Cleveland won here yday, 7-2. I'm going with the Under on Sunday as this should be a lower-scoring game. 

While facing a 6.5-game deficit in the AL Central is NOT what the Indians expected coming into the year, the first half can't be viewed as all that disappointing given the injuries that were sustained and the lack of hitting. I say that because they're still 11 games over .500 and on a five-game win streak entering Sunday. They've allowed the third fewest number of runs in the American League and send Trevor Bauer to the mound today. Bauer hasn't been as good as he was last season, but he rarely has B2B poor outings and last time out he gave up 5 ER in a game Cleveland still won. He actually has a much lower ERA on the road than at home this year. 

The Reds had posted B2B shutouts prior to yday's loss. This has been an Under team all the way this season w/ a 53-29-4 mark in that direction. That's by far and away the most Unders of any team in baseball. (Cleveland is #3). Tyler Mahle starts here for the Reds and the Under is 11-4-1 in his 16 starts. Mahle has allowed six or less hits in 10 of his last 11 starts. Again, the Indians are not a high-scoring bunch. The only AL teams averaging fewer runs per game are: Baltimore, Chicago, KC and Detroit. Not having a DH here makes the lineup even weaker. 8* Under Indians/Reds

8* Under Rockies/D'backs (10:10 ET): I had my finger on the pulse of this matchup yesterday, taking Arizona in what ended up being an 8-0 shutout. It was a big revenge spot for the D'backs as they'd previously been swept here at Chase Field by the Rockies last month. But as I was quick to point out in yday's analysis, the D'backs are a better team than they're being given credit for. That's seemingly confirmed by a YTD run differential of +49, which is actually 4th best overall in the NL. Meanwhile, it remains difficult to trust the Rockies outside of Coors Field for a number of reasons. The most obvious is the drastic decline in offense they experience, which is why I'll be going w/ the Under here.

I'll take this right from yday's analysis - "Of course, the Rockies home vs. road splits have been well-defined throughout the franchise's quarter-century existence. We know the offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), that average drops all the way to 4.4 rpg on the road." They were obviously shutout Friday, so that runs per game average dropped and they're now down to 4.3. 

While Colorado's home vs. road splits are pretty dramatic, a team playing worse on the road isn't that all uncommon. Arizona's splits are thus a little more head-scratching as they average only 4.5 rpg at home compared to 5.6 on the road. I don't see them scoring as many runs here as they did last night as Rockies starter Jon Gray has been solid of late w/ a 1.45 ERA his L3 starts. Gray is 6-1 his L8 starts and has a 2.38 ERA in a pair of outings vs. Arizona this season. I do expect Colorado's offense to struggle again, however. D'backs starter Robbie Ray has a very good strikeout rate (129 K's in 98 2/3 IP) and turned in a quality start vs. the Rockies the last time they came calling to Chase Field. 8* Under Rockies/D'backs

8* NY Mets (7:15 ET): The Mets have now lost five in a row to Phillies despite having the lead in all five games. The dubious achievement stretches back to a four-game sweep last week in Philly. Last night's setback was especially painful as it came despite the presence of Jacob deGom on the hill and a 2-1 lead entering the 7th. (Plus, *I* was on the Mets). The Phils struck for five runs in the top of the ninth against the Mets' much maligned bullpen. Tonight it's Noah Syndergaard's turn to try and turn the tide and I'm gonna ride him as the Mets are well overdue for a win in this NL East rivalry. 

Syndergaard returned from the disabled list this past Sunday and led his team to a rare win, 8-5 over the red hot Braves, by allowing just three runs in 5 2/3 IP. I know it may seem like "playing with fire" taking the Mets, given their current state and the bullpen woes. But deGrom was able to hold the Phillies' lineup to just three hits in seven innings last night and I believe Syndergaard is more than capable of doing the same. The Mets did beat the Phillies in Syndergaard's only previous start against them this season (back on 4.15) and that was w/ him not even at his best. He did have nine strikeouts in that game, which is a season-high. 

The Phillies have obviously been extremely fortunate to go 5-0 against the Mets over the last week or so. Otherwise, they are just 4-15 since June 9th. The Mets are one of only two teams in the NL with a worse overall record the last month. The Phillies still have a losing road record on the year and are 3-10 when priced between +125 and +175. The Mets still have a winning home record (22-18) and should find success against Jake Arrieta, who allowed five runs against them back on June 25th. Arrieta followed that start up by allowing four more runs in six innings last Saturday at Miami, who is the National League's lowest scoring team. 8* NY Mets

10* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): This is a matchup that caught my eye a couple days ago when I was peeking ahead to the weekend MLB slate. I figured that we'd be able to get a more than fair price on the Cubs, Chicago's superior ballclub, due to Lucas Giolito being on the mound for the White Sox. Despite Giolito's exploits, I remain incredible bearish on the Southside contingent. Despite being two games within .500, they have been outscored by 70 runs over the course of the season. The Cubs are better than what they've shown lately and this is an incredible spot to take them. 

I went w/ the Cubs on Thursday as they won for me 11-3 over Pittsburgh. It was a much needed result for the Cubbies as they'd dropped the three previous games in that series as well as six of their last eight overall. But now I believe they're set to head into the All-Star Break w/ some "momentum." Jon Lester gets the start tonight and he came out on the winning end against Giolito back on June 19th. Including that start, Lester has a 3.11 ERA and 1.153 WHIP his L3 trips to the mound. He is 10-6 in 18 career starts against the White Sox and has a 7-1 TSR his L8 interleague starts.

As a team, the Cubs have consistently handled their business against the American League, going 31-15 their L46 IL games. They are also 6-2 following an off-day. They certainly handled their business against Giolito the first time they saw him this season. They scored six times off him in just 4 1/3 innings, which was Giolito's shortest and worst stint of 2019. This time the Cubs will have a DH in their lineup, so theoretically it's an even stronger lineup that Giolito has to deal with. The Cubs are already one of the highest scoring road teams in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Love the Cubs in this spot. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Under Marlins/Braves (4:10 ET): Given how yday's game played out (Braves won 1-0), I wouldn't go expecting many runs to be scored here. I was willing to roll with Miami (at +1.5) last night as they had the unbeaten Jordan Yamamoto on the hill. My thought is that Yamamoto could certainly mitigate the damage the Braves would do offensively and he did, keeping them off the scoreboard entirely and allowing just two hits in six innings. The game's only run came in the 9th inning, after a long rain delay. Miami remains the lowest scoring team in the National League. Take the Under. 

Atlanta pitching should again have its way w/ Miami hitting today as Max Fried gets the baseball. Fried faced the Marlins one other time this season, last month, and held them to three runs in six innings. Fried has been a much better pitcher at home (supported by the numbers) and Miami simply has been unable to produce much offense in these games vs. Atlanta no matter where they take place. They're 1-9 head to head this year, getting shutout three times and scoring more than two runs just three times. So expect Fried to hold up his end of the bargain. 

Assuming Fried does hold up his end of the bargain, then this game shouldn't see the bottom of the 9th. Not like it mattered yesterday when it did, but avoiding those final three outs can be huge when playing the Under. The Braves are huge favorites here for a reason, but Miami's Caleb Smith can hopefully turn in a start resembling what we saw from Yamamoto yesterday. Smith is making his first start in a month here after battling hip inflammation, but held Atlanta to just three runs in six innings earlier this year. Everything points to a low-scoring game here. 8* Under Marlins/Braves

8* Tampa Bay (4:10 ET): The Rays have now lost six straight times to the Yankees and are 2-9 against them for the season. The two losses so far in this series have come in excruciating fashion as both went extra innings and saw the Yankees turn in a big inning for the win. But if there was ever a time for TB to break through w/ a win in this AL East rivalry, it looks to be today when they'll send Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the bump. I gotta think this is the Rays' day. 

Snell is the reason the Rays are favored this afternoon, though his last start against New York was a complete disaster. He got only one out before allowing six runs and was pulled in the first inning. The next start wasn't any good either as the Twins chased him after scoring seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. But last time out was a return to form for Snell as he struck out 12 batters in six innings and the Rays beat the Rangers 6-2 here at home. Notable is that those two previous awful outings both came on the road. Back at Tropicana Field, he allowed just two runs on three hits on Sunday. 

CC Sabathia opposed Snell back on June 19th as the Yankees rolled to a 12-1 victory. But it won't go like that here in Tampa considering CC has not been good on the road this year. The hefty lefty has a 6.30 ERA and 1.666 WHIP in six starts away from home this season w/ the team ending up w/ a losing record. The Rays have deserved a better fate in this series and will get the elusive win over the Yankees (finally!) today. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): Due to the number of plays I have going today (8) and the early start times involved here, analysis will be slightly more brief than normal. This is a revenge spot for Toronto after they dropped the series opener Friday, 4-1. Losing at home to Baltimore is no laughing matter as the Orioles have the worst overall record in baseball (not that it wasn't expected) and have been outscored by 167 runs over the first half of the season. Today's game is one that the Blue Jays should win rather easily. 

Baltimore has actually won two in a row as they beat Tampa Bay 9-6 on Thursday. This puts the O's in a rare spot as they have not won three in a row since a four-game win streak back in early April. Last time in this spot was Sunday and they were shutout by the Indians. Incredibly, this is just the fifth time they've won B2B games since that four-game streak in early April! Today's starter Andrew Cashner has actually managed a winning record for this team, going 8-3 in 16 starts (10-6 TSR) and things couldn't have gone any better than they did in a 13-0 win over Cleveland last weekend. But don't be looking for a repeat of that here. 

Toronto turns to Clayton Richard, who is off B2B quality starts, including an 11-4 win over Kansas City on Monday. The veteran southpaw faces an Orioles team that is 9-24 vs. lefty starters this season and is 10-25 in day games. This is all about being a great spot to fade Baltimore. 8* Toronto

7* Arizona (9:10 ET): One of the more interesting "case studies" of MLB's 1st half resides out in the desert where Arizona has struggled far more than you'd expect at home this year. Their record at Chase Field is just 17-22 and playing a significant role in that was them getting swept here by the Rockies last month. They'll get a shot at revenge this weekend and Friday is an excellent time to strike w/ Zack Greinke being on the hill. I believe the D'backs are better than their overall record (43-45) states as they've actually outscored the opposition by 41 runs over the course of the season. Look for Greinke to lead them to a win in this series opener. 

Of course, the Rockies home vs. road splits have been well-defined throughout the franchise's quarter-century existence. We know the offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), that average drops all the way to 4.4 rpg on the road. Facing Greinke tonight, you'd expect the struggle to score runs on the road to continue. After all, Greinke is top five among all NL starters in both ERA (2.90) and WHIP (0.94). 

Neither team comes into this series playing well. Both are on three-game losing skids. But the D'backs are clearly in better position to bounce back here due to the revenge angle and Greinke getting to face the Colorado lineup outside of Denver. Greinke threw seven shutout innings last Friday at San Francisco, leading his team to a 4-3 win. He hasn't given up a run in three of his last five starts overall. While Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela picked up a win in the last series w/ Arizona, his WHIP (1.622) remains a concern as he continues to walk far too many batters (14 in his L4 starts). Senzatela also has a 4.93 ERA in 10 previous appearances in this NL West rivalry. With the D'backs 36-17 in Greinke's last 53 home starts, this is a great spot to take them. 7* Arizona 

8* Run Line Miami (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5.  Yet another revenge play where we'll have an additional 1.5 runs in our proverbial "back pocket." Normally I would not even consider the Marlins here, given the oddsmakers are giving them such a small shot of winning. But having the undefeated Jordan Yamamoto on the mound is definitely a "game changer." Yes, Atlanta has played well of late and they have owned the Marlins. But my view is that the road team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

The Braves are 22-6 vs. the Marlins since the start of last season, including 8-1 in 2019, but they've yet to face Yamamoto. Considered just a "throw in" as part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee, Yamamoto has been a real "bright spot" on a last place team. He has a 4-0 TSR w/ a 2.35 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. After completely shutting down the Cardinals in two different starts (no runs allowed in 14 IP), Yamamoto moved on to face the Phillies twice and while not quite as dominant, he still allowed only five hits in 9 IP. There were some control issues in those starts, but I don't see that being a long-term issue for him. 

I know Atlanta's offense has been red hot of late, but Yamamoto should "cool them off" somewhat tonight, thus opening the door for an upset. Note the last two times the Braves beat the Marlins, it was a one-run game. Here, you also have the fact that Julio Teheran has looked HORRIBLE of late. Friday's starter for Atlanta comes in w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.736 WHIP over his L3 starts! He was a little better his last time out, but still lasted only 3 1/3 innings. We're getting the better pitcher +1.5 runs here, which is exceedingly rare and an opportunity that's simply too good to pass up. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Revenge is going to the common theme with the teams I am taking in this 3-game report Friday. Here, the Mets have plenty of it as they were swept in a four-game series at Philadelphia last week. That's part of a 2-8 slide by the Metropolitans coming into this series. But they did have the 4th of July off and Jacob deGrom starts today. That should be enough to turn the tide here against a Phillies team that isn't exactly playing good baseball either. Since sweeping the Mets last week, the Phils have dropped four of six, including a 12-6 loss last night in Atlanta. 

The Phillies didn't have to face deGrom last week, but will have to deal w/ him this time around at Citi Field. While it's a crime against humanity that the Mets are just 19-30 in deGrom starts since the beginning of last season, he continues to pitch well. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts as well as 11 of his last 12. Though the Mets and Phillies have played 10 games against one another this season, deGrom hasn't started any of them. That's been a big break for Philly, who has gone 7-3 in those games. DeGrom is 7-1 lifetime vs. the Phillies (2.20 ERA), so their luck runs out here. 

Speaking of luck, the Phillies rallied from multi-run deficits to win all four games against the Mets last week. That doesn't happen often. In fact, such a feat had been accomplished only one other time in the last 35 years! While the Mets may have the NL's worst record since June 10th, the Phillies are tied for 2nd worst. DeGrom is the clear difference maker here as I just can't see Philly starter Vincent Velasquez (6.95 ERA L3 starts) being able to match him. Velasquez hasn't made it past the 5th inning in any of his L6 starts, which is a problem. The fact the Mets had yday off while the Phillies were in Atlanta is a big edge too. 6* NY Mets

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Fueled by the revenge angle, I took the Rays yday and it was a pretty brutal beat w/ them rallying to tie the game in the ninth, only to then lose 8-5 (in 10 innings). They're now 2-8 against the Yankees this year, which largely explains why they're looking at a 7.5 game deficit in the AL East standings heading into the final weekend before the All-Star Break. While many will disagree, I don't feel that the Yankees are substantially better than the Rays, so the head to head record seems a little misleading. With an extra 1.5 runs in their "back pocket," TB is again the play tonight. 

Then again, maybe the Rays won't even need the +1.5. Ultimately, the run line would NOT have helped last night as they gave up five runs in the top of the 10th, but they held the Yankees to just three runs in nine innings. Tampa continues to pace the entire league w/ only 3.7 rpg allowed, so them getting the +1.5 here could be potentially huge. Brendon McKay gets the start tonight and it's hard to be any better than he was exactly one week ago in his big league debut where he held Texas scoreless for six innings. He retired the first 16 batters that he saw and allowed just one hit. 

It'll likely be tougher for McKay this time around, facing the Yankees, but I think he's up for the challenge. While there's no way Masahiro Tanaka will be as bad as he was his last time out, hopefully the dreadful performance over in London last weekend has him shaken. In what ended up as a ridiculously high scoring series, Tanaka couldn't even make it out of the first inning as he gave up six runs to the Red Sox. That's obviously "out of character" for him, but Tanaka is only 5-5 in 17 starts this year and the team is only 2-4 in his six starts away from home. The Rays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

10* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): These division foes just met last weekend & it was a very low-scoring series. None of the three games, two of which were won by the Brewers, saw more than five total runs scored. Going back even further, the last five meetings have all gone Under. Pittsburgh has definitely had its share of isssues scoring on Milwaukee pitching this season, averaging just 4.0 rpg, which has led to a 2-8 head to head record. But those L5 meetings all came at Miller Park. Games tend to be a lot higher scoring here in Pittsburgh, so take the Over tonight.

The Bucs should find success at the plate tonight against the struggling Zach Davies, who comes in w/ a 7.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP his L3 starts. Davies did pitch relatively well last Saturday, limiting the Bucs to 1 run in 6 IP. But he also has a 5.08 ERA in 12 career starts against them. Pittsburgh does average a healthy 5.0 rpg here at home, so that's more reason to expect better success against Davies and company tonight. Twice this season, they've scored 9 or more runs against Milwaukee pitching at PNC Park. The Over is also 20-5-2 in the Pirates' last 27 home games! 

Not surprisingly, such a startling Over trend is not just a byproduct of increased offense. The Pirates are also allowing 5.9 rpg at home this season. We just saw them allow 11 yday, so there's definitely hope for a Brewers lineup that was just shutout in B2B games. Note those shutouts came against a Reds team that has allowed the FEWEST # of runs in the NL. It'll be a much more favorable matchup here against the Pirates' Steven Brault, who has a 1.59 WHIP in eight starts and has issued 3+ walks four of his last five times out. All three times Brault has started at home this year, the game has gone Over. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* Over Brewers/Pirates

9* Tampa Bay (5:10 ET): This is a big revenge game for the Rays, who were humiliated up in the Bronx last month. Not only were they swept by the Yankees, they got outscored 21-4 in the process! That sweep - and the fact the Rays are just 2-7 overall vs. NY - has obviously has played a major role in them now being 6.5 games back in the AL East. But, starting Thursday, they have a golden opportunity to "chip away" at that lead going into the All-Star Break. With the very beatable J.A. Happ going today for the Yanks, this is the time to go w/ the revenge angle and the Rays. 

The Rays have given up the fewest # of runs in all of MLB and only two teams - the Reds and Dodgers (both from the NL) - are within 50 of that number (315). Starting today will be Yonny Chirnos. Don't be fooled by his pedestrian 4-4 record, folks. Chirnos has a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHI and h's allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 11 starts. He's already faced the Yankees three times this season and has a 2.84 ERA in five career appearances against them. As for Happ, he hasn't pitched since giving up eight runs to Houston (allowed 3 HR's) on 6.23. He now has a 5.23 ERA on the year. 

 The Yankees are hot as ever, having won 8 of of their last 10. But Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 7 and should be entering this series on a five-game win streak. They failed to sweep the Orioles last night, losing in one of the more shocking ways possible, that is giving up six runs in the top of the ninth. As alluded to earlier, it's really atypical for them to allow that many runs, especially here at home. They are allowing only 3.6 rpg for the year. The Rays are 16-5 hosting teams w/ a .600 or better win percentage on the road! 9* Tampa Bay

10* Under Twins/A's (4:10 ET): Despite going 12 innings, last night's game between the Twins and Athletics still found a way to stay Under the total. Oakland struck first w/ three runs in the bottom of the second, but would not score again and Minnesota rallied w/ a run scored in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Though the Twins are accustomed to winning in a more high-scoring fashion, I sense that today's game will be another low-scoring battle as they send Jose Berrios to the hill. After their four-game win streak was snapped last night, Oakland should start to slow down at the plate. Take the Under.

Speaking of slowing down at the plate, that's what I'm expecting from the Twins moving forward, at least on the road. They still lead the league at 6.3 rpg scored away from home, but they've already come up short of that number in four of the five games played on the current trip. Scoring that many runs per game on the road is simply unsustainable. For evidence of that, note that no team averaged more than 5.4 rpg on the road last season. While the A's are sending out the winless Tyler Anderson to the mound today, they normally do a good job of preventing runs at home. Visitors are averaging just 4.0 rpg here. 

Berrios is heading to the All-Star Game for Minnesota, just one of two Twins that made it despite the team's excellent overall record. It was a rough start for Berrios his last time out, but he should bounce back here. Prior to that last start (where three of the six runs allowed were unearned), Berrios had delivered five consecutive quality outings. He's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less 14 times this season. He comes in w/ a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Both are top eight among all AL starters. 10* Under Twins/A's

8* Chi Cubs (4:05 ET): What's happened to the Cubs in this series is a little shocking, at least from where I sit. They've lost three in a row to the Pirates, a team that I'd been mostly fading over the last 30 days or so. The primary reason I'd soured on the Bucs was their run differential. While the club has somehow always been able to stay withing a few games of .500, the bottom line is they've been outscored by quite a bit here in 2019. Even after winning six of eight, which has improved their YTD scoring differential by 38 runs, they are still -39 for the year, third worst in the NL and easily worst in the Central Division. 

The Cubs have the Central's best run differential (+46) yet somehow trail a Milwaukee team that is -6 on the year. A big part of that has been the Cubs' struggles on the road as they're now 16-26 away from Wrigley for the season, including 13 of their last 16. Last night's 6-5 loss came in the most excruciating way possible as the Pirates rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth. While it's not a "must win" game for the Cubs today (it's only July 4th after all), I expect them to place the utmost importance on winning today. They need a win pretty badly right now.

To get that win, they'll hand the baseball to Jose Quintana. The last time the Cubs won a game happened to come w/ Quintana on the mound. He threw six shutout innings against Cincinnati on 6/29. That may have been Quintana's first win since May 5th, but he has a 2.31 ERA in six previous turns vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates go w/ Jordan Lyles here. Somehow, Lyles' last three starts have all come against Milwaukee. All ended up as losses for the Bucs. He finished w/ a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Over Cardinals/Mariners (10:10 ET): Thanks to a pinch hit HR from Tim Beckham in the home half of the eighth, Seattle beat St. Louis last night by a score of 5-4. While I've been very vocal in the past that the Mariners' early season offensive numbers were unsustainable (and turns out I was right), the fact is they've also allowed the most runs in all of baseball. So it's no shock to see them leading the league in Overs w/ a 57-26-6 mark in that direction (last night's game was a push). Of course, the St. Louis lineup is theoretically stronger here w/ the addition of a DH. Go w/ the Over tonight. 

Since starting the season 13-2, the M's have gone 25-49 overall. Not a shock to me as I had them as of the top regression teams for 2019. LY's 89-win season was a total mirage as that group was actually outscored by 34 runs! As alluded to earlier, this year's club gives up way too many runs (6.4 per game at home!) and tonight's starter Mike Leake has certainly made his contributions to that ugly number. In just his L2 starts, Leake has surrendered 12 runs and 19 hits, lasting only 11 1/3 innings. Despite tailing off from that ridiculous start to the season, the M's offense still averages 5.2 rpg, which is top eight in all of MLB. 

Now a game below .500 on the year, the Cardinals have been the picture of mediocrity over the last month. But they've only been two games below .500 one time and that was May 29th. That doesn't guarantee they'll win today, but I expect them to be more explosive offensively against former teammate Leake. The Over is 5-0-1 in the Cardinals' last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. Again, they have a DH and not the pitcher coming up to bat in this series. As for their own starter, Adam Wainwright isn't what he used to be as evident by a poor 6.31 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven road starts. 8* Over Cardinals/Mariners

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): With a come from behind victory last night, the Reds are well positioned to make it two in a row over the Brew Crew. Some of the "wind" was definitely taken out of Milwaukee's "sail" last night as they saw a 4-2 lead dissipate and turn into a 5-4 loss (in 11 innings, no less). Though in first place, it's not as if the Brewers have been a dominant team. They've actually been outscored over the course of the year! Meanwhile, last place Cincinnati has a YTD run differential of +38, not only 2nd best in the division, but also 5th best in the entire NL! I like the Reds at home tonight. 

The Reds have won each of the L4 starts made by Sonny Gray, who toes the rubber tonight at Great American Ballpark. Gray isn't exactly having a great year, but there's been only one start where he's allowed more than 3 ER. Now that was two starts ago, at Milwaukee. But Gray "got away with it" (Reds still won 11-7) and he should pitch better at home, tonight. Gray has a 2.76 ERA in his three previous starts vs. Milwaukee and that includes a season-high 9 K's (in 6 IP) in a win back in May. Again, the Brewers are a pretty average team. They've hit a collective .214 over the previous week. 

Jhoulys Chacin will oppose Gray tonight and things tend to NOT go Chacin's way when pitching away from home. He has a 1-7 team start record to go along w/ a 6.94 ERA and 1.707 WHIP. The last time he faced Cincinnati, Chacin gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings. That was at home too. He was pretty fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision that day (Brewers won 6-5), but I don't see him being as lucky tonight. Did you know that the Reds have allowed the fewest # of runs in the entire National League? They've allowed 50 fewer than all but one team (the Dodgers)! 10* Cincinnati

8* Over Marlins/Nationals (6:05 ET): Washington took Tuesday's series opener, 3-2, and is a huge favorite tonight w/ Stephen Strasburg on the hill. Early on last night, it appeared as if we might be headed for a high-scoring game as it was 2-1 Nats at the end of the 1st. But they wouldn't score again until the bottom of the ninth when Trea Turner's double to center won them the ballgame. I like them to do a lot more damage at the plate tonight though and it's not like Strasburg has been that sharp of late either (6.50 ERA L3 starts). This one has Over written all over it!

The Nationals have started to surge, which I expected, considering my projection for them before the season got underway. Despite losing Bryce Harper in the offseason (overrated), this is a club I figured would improve in the standings. Thanks to the bullpen and injuries, it was a very disappointing first three months, but the Nats have now won six of seven overall. Taking full advantage of getting all these games against Miami is something they have to do and after yday, they're now 8-3 head to head this season. That includes four wins in the last seven days alone (swept them last week). 

In that last series, the Nats hit Sandy Alcantara hard, scoring six times off him in six innings. It was the most runs allowed by Alcantara in 2 1/2 months. His 1.601 WHIP on the road signals to me we may be getting a repeat of that ugly outing here. So too does a 9.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington. Strasburg is starting opposite Alcantara for a second straight time and he didn't exactly pitch great that day either, giving up 4 ER in 7 IP. Though Strasburg has had Miami's number throughout his career, the Marlins had been hitting better of late (before last night). The Over is 38-14-2 in Strasburg's last 54 starts at home. Don't forget about the hideous Washington bullpen either. 8* Over Marlins/Nationals

10* Under Yankees/Mets (7:10 ET): The Yankees are back in the States after a weekend visit to London that saw them put up 29 runs in a pair of victories over the Red Sox. The AL East leaders have now won five in a row overall. While back in NY, it's not the Bronx, but rather Queens for the next two days as they face the Mets in Interleague play. The Mets would gladly take "jet lag" over their recent issues. They've lost seven of eight (did win Sunday night) and appear to be fading fast, even in a weak NL East. I like this game to stay Under the total. 

Needless to say, Olympic Stadium over in London made even Coors Field seem like a "pitcher's park" by comparison. The first game between the Yankees & Red Sox saw 30 total runs scored (17-13 Yanks' win) as each team batted around twice! It was 6-6 at the end of the first inning. After the two games were over, 50 total runs had been scored on 65 hits. It was ridiculous. But now the Yanks come back to play under NL rules, which means the pitcher has to come up to bat and thus we should see a significant decrease in their offensive numbers here tonight. 

Starting tonight for the Yanks will be James Paxton, who has been going through a bit of a rough patch lately, but is still a very effective pitcher. He'd allowed just 3 ER in 11 IP over two starts before getting touched up for six runs by Toronto last week. I expect a bounce back here. The Mets' Zach Wheeler has a 2.84 ERA his L3 starts and has allowed just two runs on seven hits in the last two. Note the Under is 11-4 in the Yankees' last 15 interleague road games. 10* Under Yankees/Mets

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): I'll roll w/ the Cubs again tonight, even though they lost for me (in humiliating fashion) last night. The fact they lost to Pittsburgh is one thing, but losing 18-5 was something completely unforeseen. The Piraters have had some big wins lately. They've scored 10+ runs in four of their last eight games, three of those seeing them win by 10+ runs. But the other four games in that stretch have seen them score a grand total of six runs. Last night was both the Bucs' biggest win and Cubs' worst loss of the season (in terms of margin). I expect a big bounce back from the Cubs here. 

Now admittedly, there are some troubling signs for the Cubs right now. They are just 16-24 away from Wrigley this season, including 4-13 their L17. They've dropped 7 of 11 overall and are 2-5 their L7 games. But tonight's starting pitching matchup is decidedly in their favor. Kyle Hendricks returns from a stint on the DL for the Cubs and hoping to resume his winning ways. Before going on the DL, Hendricks had gone 6-1 over his L9 starts w/ a 2.57 ERA. He reportedly looked so good in his bullpen sessions that no rehab assignment (down at Triple-A) was needed. I'm sure he remembers LY's results vs. Pittsburgh where he went 0-3 despite a 2.81 ERA (poor run support each time). 

I expect better run support this time around against Joe Musgrove, who I've successfully faded many times this season. Now the Pirates' starter is off B2B quality outings, including six shutout innings against the Astros last week. But he also allowed nine hits in those six innings and got plenty of run support. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Pirates should feel fortunate to be hovering close to .500. Even w/ some of the recent blowout victories, they've still been outscored by 43 runs over the course of the season, not what you'd expect from a 40-43 team. Despite falling out of first place in the Central, the Cubs still have the National League's 2nd best YTD run differential. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs have fallen out of first place in the NL Central again as they are now in a tie w/ Milwaukee. Yet despite the identical records, the Cubs have a far superior run differential compared to the Brew Crew (+64 vs. -4) and my view is that the Cubbies are the MUCH better team. Another team that the Cubs are clearly better than right now is Pittsburgh. The Pirates' ability to stay within striking distance of .500 has to be commended as they are -56 in run differential, the third worst mark in the entire National League. I like the Cubs to take Monday's series opener. 

Over the weekend, the Cubs dropped two of three to a Cincinnati team that is much better than its record implies. Sunday's 8-6 loss saw a late comeback fall short and as a result the Cubs finished June at 14-15 overall, their 1st losing month since the 2017 season. Starting today for them will be Adbert Alzolay, whose first career start really couldn't have gone much better. It was last Tuesday and while he walked four, Alzolay allowed only one run in 4 2/3 innings. The Cubs failed to get the win (lost 3-2 to Atlanta), but don't blame Alzolay. Here, he'll be facing a Pirates' lineup that scored all of five runs in its last series. 

That last series for Pittsburgh was against Milwaukee and saw them dump two of three. They also lost two of three in the only prior series with the Cubs this year (back in April). Both losses were shutouts. They're probably going to need to score plenty today w/ Trevor Williams on the mound and I just don't see that happening. Williams has allowed 11 runs in his L2 starts, including four HR's. For the year, he has a 6.00 ERA at home. The Pirates allow nearly 6.0 runs per game at home this year, which is tied for 4th worst in all of baseball. The Cubs average 5.3 rpg on the road, which is near the top. I just don't see the Pirates scoring enough to compete here. 10* Chi Cubs

8* Toronto (1:07 ET): This is a "wrap around" game as the teams are actually finishing up a four-game series that started Friday. The Blue Jays won the first two games of the series, 6-2 and 7-5, before losing 7-6 yesterday. It would again appear as if the hosts have been underpriced here as the ML has already been bet up and I'm inclined to agree with the move. Kansas City is simply not a team that you can count on as they have the third worst record in all of baseball (29-45) and are tied for the fewest number of road wins (13). In the entire month of June, they had just one "win streak" - that being three straight from 6/16 - 6/18. Other than that, they were 0-6 off a win. Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back on Canada Day. 

Toronto isn't exactly having a great season either, but they are 14-4 their last 18 times hosting Kansas City. They did have a 5-1 lead in Sunday's game before that quickly went away as the Royals answered w/ a five-run third inning. The lineup is theoretically stronger now w/ the return of Justin Smoak from the DL. Smoak even homered twice yday. Vlad Guerrero Jr was not in the lineup Sunday, but will be today.

The starting pitching matchup here would not seem to indicate an advantage for either team as both Glenn Sparkman (KC) and Clayton Richard (Toronto) gave up three home runs in their last starts. Somehow, Sparkman's team still won (8-6 at Cleveland), but his ERA and WHIP on the road are now 10.03 & 1.628 respectively. Richard's numbers at home (7.71, 1.714) are no better, but he's a lefty and the Royals have struggled in games vs. southpaw starters (8-15). They are also just 7-20 off their previous 27 victories. 8* Toronto

10* Under Braves/Mets (7:05 ET): The Mets blew another one last night, losing 5-4 to the Braves, giving up B2B homers in the top of the eighth. It was the Mets' seventh loss in a row as they continue to fade into obscurity. They're now 10 games below .500 and 13 back of the first place Braves in the NL East. They do get a boost here though w/ Noah Syndergaard returning from the DL. I think Syndergaard will at least do his job tonight. Whether or not the Mets' offense can is a different matter. Take the Under. 

Syndergaard has pitched better than his record, especially so at home where his WHIP is 1.077. Before going on the DL, he did give up five runs to St. Louis, but that came on the heels of seven shutout innings vs. Colorado and another quality start against the Giants. Syndergaard has not faced the Braves this season, nor has he ever beaten them in seven career starts. But his ERA is respectable in those seven starts and the good news is he'll mitigate how long the Mets' bullpen has to be in there. 

Atlanta goes w/ Max Fried, who has a 12-4 TSR overall, including a perfect 5-0 his last five. He's made B2B quality starts, one against the Mets, whom he held to two runs on six innings. He did the same to the Cubs his last time out, but only on two hits. Both games stayed Under the total. Fried has a 1.77 ERA in seven previous apperances vs. the Mets. The Under is 5-1-1 the Braves' last seven road games. 10* Under Braves/Mets

10* Philadelphia (4:10 ET): Philadelphia dropped their fourth in a row to Miami last night, losing by a score of 6-2. The Phils were probably "due" to lose considering the previous series against the Mets was a very misleading sweep in the sense that they actually trailed in all four games by 2+ runs. But now they're "due" to beat the Fish after being swept at home by them last weekend and losing again last night. Miami still has the worst record in the entire National League, mind you, and also has scored the fewest number of runs. 

After yday's performance at the plate, you have to think the Marlins are in line for an "off night" considering they average only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. That's certainly what Phillies starter Zach Eflin is hoping for here as he comes off an outing where he allowed a season-high 11 hits. Yet Eflin still got the win as his team supported him w/ 13 runs. That last start is not indicative of how Eflin has pitched this year as he'd been coming off three consecutive quality starts. He also has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his 15 starts overall. The Phillies have won five of Eflin's last six starts against teams that have a losing record.

Jordan Yamamoto has made three starts so far for Miami and needless to say things couldn't have gone much better. The rookie has a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP, twice shutting out St. Louis (over 16 innings) and then beating these same Phillies last weekend. But in that last start, Yamamoto began to show some cracks. He lasted just five innings and issued four walks. He also gave up two runs. Even w/ Yamamoto on the bump, it is difficult to trust a Miami club that is only 14-28 at home this year and 8-16 in day games. 10* Philadelphia

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Don't expect me to take Toronto too often this season, but as last night showed they are certainly capable of beating the Royals here at home. Friday brought a 6-2 Blue Jays victory in the first meeting of the season. The Royals not only have the second fewest wins in all of MLB (Baltimore), but also the worst road record (12-29). After a six-gamee road trip that had them playing both the Red Sox and Yankees, this series is just what the doctor ordered for the Jays, who are now 6-2 vs. KC since the start of last season. 

Today's pitching matchup features two hurlers that have been performing better of late than per usual. Kansas City's Homer Bailey has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts and has given up just one run in the last three, spanning 19 innings. But his season numbers would seem to indicate this impressive stretch is unlikely to last as he still sports a 4.61 ERA and 1.375 WHIP on the year. He's actually never faced Toronto before having spent so much time in the National League. Another issue for the Royals is that they are 0-8 their L8 Saturday games. 

Of course, what I said about Bailey can also be applied to Toronto starter Marcus Stroman, who is similarly going through his best stretch of the season. Stroman has a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts, not quite as good as Bailey, but Stroman has the more reliable track record. In four previous starts vs. KC, Stroman is 3-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA. Toronto has been hitting much better of late as they have scored six or more runs in seven of their past nine ballgames. They also just got 1B Justin Smoak back in the lineup. They should win easily today. 8* Toronto 

10* Under D'backs/Giants (10:15 ET): I've consistently harped on the fact that the Giants are a pretty poor team offensively (not to mention overall). That was part of the reason I played against them last night and sure enough they managed only one run in a home loss to division rival Arizona. I don't see tonight's game being any higher scoring as SF remains 28th in runs scored in all of MLB, 30th (last) in team batting average and 29th in OPS. At home, they are averaging only 3.1 rpg for the season, which is the lowest average for any team at home in all of MLB. Take the Under tonight.

In playing on Arizona last night, I noted they have been a much better team on the road than at home this year. I do expect them to end up winning this series, but do shy away from playing them again here as I'm projecting them to have a less productive night at the plate than usual. For the second time in a week, they will be facing Shaun Anderson. At Chase Field on Sunday, kept D'backs hitters at bay by holding them to only two runs and five hits across six innings. It ended up being a 3-2 win for Arizona, but Anderson has still allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts this year (including five straight).

Opposing Anderson again will be Merrill Kelly. He too started last Sunday's game and held the Giants to two runs on FOUR hits in 6 IP. Kelly has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his previous five starts, the lone exception coming against the Rockies. He has a 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all of those staying Under. The Under is also 7-1 his last eight starts overall. Look for this to be another low-scoring game from these two. 10* Under D'backs/Giants

8* Over Pirates/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee is 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh this season and swept them the last time they met, which was here in Miller Park at the start of the month. At some point in this series, you figure the Pirates will gain some revenge, but I wouldn't bet on it happening here as Chris Archer will toe the rubber for them. Archer has an 8.41 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in five road starts and overall it's no secret that I think the Bucs are a pretty bad ballclub. I've "called them out" previously for having a very poor run differential (currently -54, 3rd worst in NL) despite somehow always staying within striking distance of .500. Take the Over here in what should be a very high scoring game.

The Pirates' run differential had been a lot worse prior to the L2 days, which saw them shockingly outscore Houston 24-2! Usually, it's the Pirates giving up a lot of runs as they allow 5.4 per game this year, which is tied for third most in all of baseball (w/ Detroit, another team I'm playing Over today!). As alluded to above, Archer has not been good for the Pirates in 2019. He pitched okay against San Diego last Saturday, but that was at home. The Over is 8-4-1 in all of Archer's starts this season, including 4-1 on the road. He has a 6.14 ERA in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. The Pirates are the top Over team in the National League right now w/ a 46-29-4 record. 

One of the reasons I don't think you can count on the Brew Crew here is that they'll be sending Jhoulys Chacin to the bump. Chacin has really struggled of late w/ a 10.49 ERA and 2.165 WHIP his L3 starts. He also has struggled previously vs. Pittsburgh w/ a 2-7 record and 4.96 ERA in 13 career starts. While Milwaukee has been mostly an Under team this season, that's largely due to the road. Their home games average more than 10 rpg and after managing just nine runs in three games vs. Seattle in the last series, I see the offense "waking up" tonight. 8* Over Pirates/Brewers

8* Under Phillies/Marlins (7:10 ET): Philadelphia just became the second team in the last 35 seasons to sweep a four-game series in which they trailed every game by 2+ runs. They did so at the expense of the Mets, who now have the indignity of being on the wrong side of BOTH of those two sweeps in the L35 seasons (also happened in '11 vs. Colorado). The Phillies' win Thursday afternoon was a real "bad beat" for Under bettors as it was a 1-0 game entering the ninth. The Mets took the lead w/ a 3-run 9th before the Phillies answered w/ five runs of their own. Now matched up w/ a low-scoring Miami team (scored fewest # of runs in NL), Under bettors will get their revenge tonight. 

Speaking of revenge, the Phils have it here as last weekend saw them get swept - at home - by the Marlins. Not only did the next series (vs. the Mets) go very differently for Philly, but so did Miami's as they were just swept here at home by Washington. Like I said before, the Marlins are the NL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 3.5 runs per game and that average actually drops here at home. Against the Nationals, they managed only 11 runs and 19 runs in three games.

Vince Velasquez was having a rough go of it as starter, which is why the Phillies sent him to the bullpen for a month. His results as a reliever were no more inspiring, but I think we can count on him to deliver here. Miami has been Velasquez's favorite opponent through the years as he has a 2.90 ERA in 12 starts against them. That includes a 1.64 ERA in two starts this year. Last week he faced them and retired 15 of the 16 batters he faced w/ the only hit allowed being a solo HR. Current Marlins' hitters are just 19 for 125 against Velasquez. Once again, Velasquez is being opposed by Elieser Hernandez tonight. While Hernandez has still NEVER won a decision in seven career starts, he did fine last week against the Phillies, allowing just three runs in five innings in what ended up being a 5-3 final. 8* Under Phillies/Marlins

analysis soon

8* Arizona (9:45 ET): Arizona is a team that I feel is actually quite a bit better than its record. After taking two of three from the first place Dodgers to start the week (impressive!), they are now squared away at 41-41 on the year. But they have a run differential of +47, which is actually tied for third best in the entire National League (only teams w/ more positive RD are Dodgers & Cubs). A curious thing w/ the D'backs is what road warriors they've become. While they have a losing record at Chase Field this season (17-22), they are 24-19 on the road. Earlier in the year, they swept a series here in San Francisco. I think they'll beat the Giants again tonight.

Now, just last weekend, the Giants took two of three out in Arizona. That of course just plays into the interesting home vs. road split the D'backs are experiencing. But let's not lose sight of the fact the Giants are not a good team. They have the worst run differential in the entire National League (-93) due to some major offensive struggles, which have them bottom three in runs, batting average and OPS. Their week started by dropping two of three at home to Colorado, a series that saw them score all of seven runs. 

The Giants are only averaging 3.2 runs per game at home, which is significantly less than what they average on the road. They're a little fortunate to not have the worst record in the NL as they've been propped up a bit some by a fortunate 17-8 record in one-run games. Speaking of fortunate, tonight's starter Tyler Beede somehow has a 5-1 TSR in spite of a 7.07 ERA and 1.786 WHIP. I'd say he's "due" to lose a decision. Arizona made a pitching change overnight and will now go w/ Alex Young, who will be making his big league debut. Let's not underestimate the element of surprise in this one. Also, the D'backs average 5.8 rpg on the road. 8* Arizona 

10* Over Dodgers/Rockies (8:40 ET): The Rockies are out for revenge this weekend as they've been swept twice by the Dodgers this year, the most recent one coming last weekend. Last weekend's series was in LA, so the games weren't quite as high scoring as they were here in Denver for a three-game set back in April. That visit saw the Dodgers total 29 runs and they really haven't slowed down since, as they are #3 in the NL in runs scored. One of the two teams ahead of them (at #1) is Colorado as it's no secret their offense benefits tremendously from playing half of its games here in Coors. Take the Over Thursday night. 

The Dodgers come in licking their wounds some after dropping two of three down in Arizona to start the week. But they'd won six in a row before and still lead the NL West by a comfortable margin. They'll lean on Walker Buehler tonight. Buehler is pitching as well as anyone right now w/ a 2.96 ERA and 0.865 WHIP on the year (15 starts). His last three starts have been even better w/ a 0.78 ERA and 0.478 WHIP, the last one coming against these Rockies, whom he held to two runs in his 1st career complete game. It came w/ 16 K's as well. But there is reason to believe Buehler won't be as effective tonight. One, this game is in Coors Field. Two, the Dodgers allow almost a full run per game more on the road. 

Note all three Rockies losses to the Dodgers last weekend came in walkoff fashion. They responded by taking two of three in San Francisco. Pete Lambert will get the nod here. He gave up three runs in five innings in his start of the last Dodgers series, which ended up being a 5-4 loss for Colorado. Lambert has a 10.12 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his two home starts so far. The Over is 5-0 in the L5 Rockies home games, immediately following a road trip of 7+ days. Colorado rediscovers some offense here, but the Dodgers will "get theirs" too. 10* Over Dodgers/Rockies

10* Under Rangers/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has lost the opener of this series, 5-3, and five straight overall. They've actually lost 9 of 10 and are a horrid 4-16 overall in June as their season slowly sinks into the abyss. The Tigers have been outscored by 142 runs this season, which is the second worst margin in all of baseball, and they are the lowest scoring team at just 3.5 runs per game. But as reflected in the odds change, they do have a "fighting chance" Wednesday night w/ Matthew Boyd on the mound. Though he has a 6-10 TSR and has been roughed up a little bit his last two starts (both were on the road), Boyd has been the best starter on a bad team. I'm taking the Under tonight. 

Texas is one of the highest scoring teams in all of baseball as well as one of its biggest surprises. They are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the second Wild Card in the American League and just a percentage point ahead of Boston. Few, if any, predicted that before the start of the season. They've now won three straight, taking advantage of a weak schedule that's had them play the White Sox and Tigers. Speaking of surprises, Mike Minor is as big as any for the ballclub. His last six starts have all gone Under, he's won his last four and he has a 2.42 ERA/0.896 WHIP his L3. 

Boyd has been beat up a bit in B2B outings, but as I said earlier, both were on the road. His L2 home starts have seen him allow only three runs in 13 IP. But if not many people turn out for this game, I don't blame them as the Tigers are getting outscored by nearly THREE full runs per game at Comerica Park this season. Not sure if I've ever seen anything like that in my career. This shapes up to be a REAL low-scoring game. The Under is 24-9-1 in Minor's L34 starts overall. 10* Under Rangers/Tigers

8* Under Rockies/Giants (3:45 ET): Similar to Monday's game where we won w/ the Under (Rockies won 2-0), the public is erroneously loading up on the Over today. Considering last night's game (4-2 Giants win) also stayed Under, I'm just not sure why that is. It's a proven fact that when you take the Rockies outside the confines of Coors Field, their offensive output goes down rather dramatically. They average a league high 6.9 runs per game, but are at just 4.4 on the road. As for the Giants, they are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball, ranking 28th in runs scored, last in batting average and 29th in OPS. Take the Under again this afternoon.

It also helps our cause here that Colorado will send German Marquez to the hill. While the Rockies' hitters may not like hitting the road, the team's pitchers certainly do. The dichotomy is perhaps best exemplified through Marquez's numbers as he has 5.70 ERA and 1.602 WHIP at Coors, but a 3.02 ERA and 0.794 WHIP on the road. That WHIP is really impressive when you think about it. In fact, it's the lowest WHIP on the road among any starting pitcher (in all of MLB!) w/ at least eight starts. Marquez pitched a one-hit shutout against the Giants, here in San Francisco, back on April 14th. 

Just three days prior that CG effort from Marquez, the Giants' Jeff Samardzija threw seven shutout innings of his own against the Rockies. San Francisco won that game 1-0. The Under is now 5-2-1 in the eight head to head matchups this season w/ three shutouts. Samardzija is off a couple of shaky starts, but he's been a much better pitcher at home this year (3.16 ERA). But he shouldn't expect a lot of run support here as the Giants average just 3.2 rpg at home. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under Royals/Indians (1:10 ET): This is the final game and rubber match of a three-game series between the AL Central rivals. Cleveland opened the series w/ a 3-2 victory before losing yday, 8-6, a result which snapped a four-game win streak. I had the Tribe in Monday's opener and they should be in good hands again today (as you can tell from the odds) w/ Trevor Bauer pitching. But, as tempting as it may be, I'm not about to lay that kind of price. Instead, I'm going with the better value in the Under as Bauer should shut the KC lineup down and the Indians' offense won't do too much either. 

Bauer hasn't displayed the consistency you want to see, but he still should be considered one of the better pitchers in the American League and certainly within his division. Though he did not last long his previous start (just four innings), note that his start before that was a complete game shutout. Interestingly enough, both starts came against the same team (Detroit). Bauer has a 3.01 ERA in 14 previous starts vs. Kansas City and has yet to face them in 2019. The Under is 6-1-2 his L9 starts against the Royals. 

It was a stunning comeback last night for KC as they scored five runs in the top of the ninth, four of them coming on a grand slam. Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it came at the expense of Brad Hand, who had previously been perfect in save situations for Cleveland. A repeat of such an inning from the Royals is highly unlikely here though. They do have started Jake Junis to lean on, however. Junis has allowed just 2 ER in each of his L3 starts. The Indians' offense has been hot of late, but still sports rather pedestrian numbers for the year. 8* Under Royals/Indians