8* Under Orioles/Rays (1:10 ET): Baltimore has been playing some pretty ugly baseball of late. In fact, prior to yday, they'd gone 6-14 over a 20-game stretch that saw them allow 5+ runs in EVERY game! Doing so actually tied a MLB record, originally set by the 1924 Phillies. But getting a quality start from Dylan Bundy + a strong showing at the plate enabled the O's to beat the Rays 8-3 yday. Tampa Bay is no stranger to high scoring games itself having gone Over in each of the last five games. They scored 15 runs in Friday's opener and things certainly look good for them today as they face the struggling Chris Tillman. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this game end up lower-scoring than anticipated as the O's pitching almost "has" to improve based solely on the "law of averages."

What a difference a year makes for Tillman. I've previously written about him fairly extensively. If you're "new to the party," note that I'm not the least bit surprised that he's regressed badly here in 2017. Last season saw him finish near the top of the leaderboard in net units (+13.7 units), but a 3.78 ERA and 1.282 WHIP indicated that he was fortunate to do so. However, the regression that's taken hold here has been even more severe than even the harshest cynic could have anticipated. Tillman comes into today sporting an 8.40 ERA (highest in American League) and 2.168 WHIP in nine starts (3-6 TSR). There's no sugarcoating as to how atrocious he's been recently as the L3 starts have produced a 16.04 ERA and 3.096 WHIP, almost unconscionable numbers. One could reasonably conclude then that things almost HAVE to get better. If Tillman does have one thing going for him here it's that he pitched very well in his two starts in this park last year. In 13 2/3 innings of work, he allowed just one run on six hits. 

Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has had his own problems this year, namely giving up the long ball. Entering today, he's allowed at least one HR in 10 consecutive starts, one shy of the franchise record. Baltimore's lineup certainly is capable of delivering some power, but again, don't be surprised to see improvement from the starter here. In seven home starts this year, Odorizzi has a 1.030 WHIP and his overall ERA would look a lot better were it not for being victimized by some unearned runs. In fact, since his very first start of the year, Odorizzi has allowed more than three earned runs only ONE time! He hasn't faced Baltimore since September of last year when he allowed just one run on five hits in 6 IP. 8* Under Orioles/Rays

10* San Francisco (7:15 ET): Not even a return home could cure what ills the Giants, at least last night, as they dropped the series opener to the Mets by a score of 11-4. It marked San Fran's 9th loss in the past 10 games and as discussed in an analysis earlier in the week (when I played AGAINST them Weds @ Atlanta), they now own not only MLB's second worst record (ahead of only the Phillies), but also it's second worst run differential as well (ahead of only San Diego). A lot of that is owed to a disastrous 13-30 mark on the road where they've been outscored by an almost mind-numbing 1.8 runs per game. At home, save for last night, they've at least been more competitive. It should be pointed out that the Mets hardly arrived in "fine form" either as they'd dropped seven of eight before Friday's win. 

It's a strong-looking pitching matchup tonight, at least on paper, as Johnny Cueto faces off w/ Jacob deGrom. But while both currently sport winning team start records this year, the numbers are hardly representative of dominant pitching. deGrom is off B2B outstanding outings against the Nats & the Cubs, but both were at home. Previously, he'd actually been rocked in two straight showings, giving up 15 ER in just 8 IP. He has a 5.19 ERA on the road this year. The Mets have been giving up a ton of runs in general away from Citi Field as they allow 5.9 per game. Part of that is also due to a bullpen which has a 6.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP outside of Citi Field. 

A huge second inning (scored six times) is what propelled to Mets to victory last night. They would finish the game w/ 20 hits, more than they had in the previous three games combined. It, in fact, matched a season-high and was just the sixth time this month they had double-digit hits in a game. I realize that Cueto appears to be regressing this season, but I'm calling for a quality outing here as he's allowed 3 ER or less in four of his five previous starts, including the last one where he held Atlanta to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. Who's behind the plate (umpire) is a key component of MLB handicapping these days and here we have an ump (Marvin Hudson) who Cueto has never lost with. In fact, Cueto is 4-0 in five career starts w/ Hudson behind the plate and a 2.45 ERA. Speaking of behind the plate, catcher Buster Posey will be back in the lineup tonight after basically being given Friday off (only came in to pinch hit). 10* San Francisco

10* Over Pirates/Cardinals (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh cashed for me yday (as a +110 ML dog), gaining a measure of revenge for a sweep that took place here in St. Louis, back in April. All four games played between these two NL Central rivals have two things in common. One is that all four have been decided by exactly one run. Last night saw the Bucs score the GW run in the top of the ninth on a John Jaso HR. The earlier series saw St. Louis prevail all three times by the identical score of 2-1. So the second thing the four games have in common is that they've all stayed Under. That's a trend I expect to change tonight as we have two somewhat struggling starters on the mound & the Cardinals have largely been an Over team this year. It's been two weeks since the last went Under in B2B games. 

Looking at the season-long numbers of Pirates' starter Gerritt Cole, it sure seems odd that his 14 starts have resulted in an 11-3 Under mark. Yes, he is off B2B quality starts where both times he allowed just one run on three hits in seven innings of work. But, for the year, his ERA and WHIP are still 4.28 and 1.251 respectively. That, right there, should clue you in as to how poorly he'd pitched previously. In the two starts prior, Cole had given up 7 ER both times. Especially curious is the fact the Under is 6-1 in his 7 road starts as his ERA and WHIP in those games are 5.01 and 1.350 respectively. One can probably conclude that a lack of offensive support has often doomed Cole this year and that conclusion would be correct. But I can see the Pirates, who have performed better on the road than their record indicates (4.7 rpg scored), doing better offensively in this one. 

Over the last week, St. Louis has both scored and allowed 6.1 runs per game. So last night was definitely a departure. The game featured only 11 hits total w/ Pittsburgh scoring four times on just five hits of their own. But, again, tonight should be different. Lance Lynn starts for the Redbirds and while he's working on a 12 inning scoreless streak vs. Pittsburgh (shut them out in last series), his career ERA against them is only 4.45. Lynn also comes in off a poor outing, one that saw him allow FOUR home runs. In total, he allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 IP, the fifth straight start where he failed to last longer than 5 1/3 innings. 10* Over Pirates/Cardinals

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): It took an additional inning, but the Yankees did dispose of the Rangers in Friday's opener, 2-1. I was of the opinion that this weekend would be kind to the team wearing pinstripes as they are still trying to recover from last week's somewhat disastrous 1-6 West Coast road trip. A return to the Bronx didn't result an immediate bounce back to the start the week as the Yanks dropped two of three to the Halos. But having already escaped Texas' best pitcher (Yu Darvish) on Friday, you have to believe it could be "smooth sailing" for the rest of the series as the Rangers won't be able to throw out anyone close to that caliber on the mound. 

A quick turnaround after a crushing loss last night's does the road team no favors here. The offense managed only four hits Friday evening and their only run scored came on a passed ball. But that lone run came in the top of the ninth, breaking a scorless tie, so they had to still be feeling pretty good about themselves at the time. But not for long. With only two outs to go, reliever Matt Bush gave up a home run to Brett Gardner in the bottom half of the ninth, forcing extra innings. From there, they would go on to lose in the next frame. Darvish was able to counteract the Rangers' inept offense last night, but I would not expect the same from Austin Bibens-Dirkx today. Dirks has not only allowed a HR in all three starts this year, but was tagged for five runs his last time out, at home vs. Toronto. The Yankees lineup, led by Aaron Judge, will be his toughest task yet. 

The Yankees have been a strong team all year in the Bronx, going 24-11 overall. Going into yday's game, they had outscored their opponents here by an average of 2.3 runs per game (3rd best average in MLB). That's played a significant role in the team being #3 overall in MLB in run differential, behind only Houston and the Dodgers. Even after the bad road trip, it was a shock to see them drop two of three here to the Angels to start the week, especially considering they were north of -200 on the ML for all three games. By comparison, this price is a downright bargain. Now some of that has to do w/ Luis Cessa making just his second start of 2017. But I've got enough confidence in him facing a Rangers lineup which has barely cracked .220 for the season on the road. The Yankees' lineup is the one far less likely to be held in check for a second straight game. 8* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Philadelphia (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again. The Phils treated me to win yday, beating St. Louis 5-1. That happened to be just their second win in the last 15 games overall and they do (still) own the worst record in all of baseball. But, recently at least, they've been a lot more competitive than their record indicates. Before finally breaking through yday afternoon, they'd lost three straight extra inning games. Six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. That doesn't even include a misleading 7-1 loss Tuesday (in 11 innings). So I feel comfortable here in saying that they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

Arizona has to feeling pretty good about itself right now. They return home after taking two of three from Colorado, scoring 26 runs the last two days. Overall, they've now won 9 of 10 and 12 of the last 14. Their current record (46-27) is the best in franchise history at this juncture of the season. They've won 11 of 12 here at Chase Field where they are 26-9 for the year, averaging 6.5 runs per game. However, coming off the strong showing in Colorado and a strong road trip overall, I feel they're ripe to be upset here. Starter Pat Corbin is arguably the weak link in the rotation as his ERA is 5.31 and his WHIP is 1.56. With matchups against Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke the next two days, this is - on paper - Philly's most "winnable" game of the series. 

The reason this line came out so late is that there's been a pitching change for the Phillies. Rookie Mark Leiter, Jr will be making his first big league start in tonight's series opener. He's worked out of the bullpen previously for the Phils and made three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Starting pitching has not been the issue for the Phillies this year as the rotation has delivered five consecutive quality starts. If the offense were able to get going - and against Corbin, I believe they will - they'll compete here and have a chance at pulling the big upset. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): The Cardinals are finally back home, but that alone is unlikely to change what ills them. Take away games played against Philadelphia (worst team in baseball) and the Redbirds are a lousy 3-12 overall (5-1 vs. Philly). Furthermore, they lost to the Phillies yday afternoon by a score of 5-1. Now back in April, they did sweep the division rival Pirates, with all three games decided by the same 2-1 score. But that puts the revenge angle in play for this weekend's series and the Bucs come to town with that still on their minds. While it was only a four-game split w/ first place Milwaukee to start the week (on the road), the Pirates outscored the Brew Crew considerably in that series and one of the two losses (Weds) was by one run.

A significant edge for Pittsburgh in this game is getting to face Adam Wainwright. A Cy Young contender several seasons ago, Wainwright has fallen on "hard times" here in 2017. Of late, he has been nothing short of spectacularly awful w/ a 17.41 ERA and 2.515 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers are hard to put up, but twice during that stretch he's allowed nine runs while failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Last time out, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings and allowed three home runs (at Baltimore). I played against him there and will do so again tonight. His career ERA vs. Pittsburgh is only 4.33. He did not face them in the series back in April. While supporters may wish to point to a 2.88 ERA at home this year, his WHIP is 1.426, indicating he's been fortunate not to have allowed more runs. 

The Bucs counter w/ Jameson Taillon, who is obviously one of the great stories here in 2017. This will be his third start since returning from treatment for testicular cancer. Obviously, he'd like to resemble the pitcher we saw in his first start back (five shutout innings vs. Colorado) as opposed to the one we saw the last time out (allowed four runs to the Cubs). Though he was in the rotation for all of April, like Wainwright, he missed the earlier series between these two teams. He's faced St. Louis only one time, last year, and fared well by giving up only two runs in 5 IP. These two clubs are rated fairly evenly in my book and even w/ the homefield advantage this weekend, I'm not certainly the slumping Cardinals do all that well. Look for the Bucs to avenge that prior sweep here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Twins +1.5. Last week at this time, I wrote that it was "about time" for Cleveland to assert itself in the AL Central. The consensus top team in the division had gotten off to a pretty mediocre start to 2017 and as a result, trailed the surprising Twins for first place. But after a four-game sweep in Minnesota, the Tribe comes into this weekend w/ a 2.5-game edge in the standings. One thing that these two division foes have in common is that they each have played much better on the road than at home. In fact, both have sub-.500 home records. The revenge angle is obviously in play here and certainly the Twins are eager to reverse a 2-8 record vs. the Indians this season. I say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Minnesota had to sit out a record-setting five-hour rain delay yday and all they got for their trouble was a 9-0 loss to the White Sox. But note they did take the first two games of that particular series, which was at home. While they've now lost 25 times this season at Target Field, they've tasted defeat only NINE times on the road! Only Houston can claim a better win percentage on the road throughout baseball. Clearly, the delay had an effect on them, starter Nik Turley in particular, last night as they allowed seven runs in the first three innings. With a taxed bullpen, the pressure is on tonight's starter Adaleberto Mejia, who is 0-3 his L3 starts. But outside of one poor showing at home vs. Seattle, Mejia has been fine this year. Last weekend, he allowed just two runs (both coming on solo HR's) to Cleveland in 4 2/3 IP. 

Despite having just 3-6 team start record overall, Mejia's numbers are remarkably similar to those of Indians' starter Trevor Bauer, who has managed a 7-7 TSR. The respective ERA's are virtually identical while Bauer only has a small edge in WHIP. Something to note here is that last night marked the 1st time all season that Minnesota was shut out. They average a healthy 4.8 rpg on the road. This will be their fourth time facing Bauer already this year and they've lost each of the first three matchups. However, that's odd considering Bauer was just 1-5 in 11 career starts against them coming into the year. His ERA remains 4.84 all-time against them. As alluded to above, Cleveland has a losing record here at Progressive Field (15-17) including a 2-6 mark as in the -175 to -250 range on the money line. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Needless to say, back in April, the Giants probably weren't thinking that by mid-June they'd be 20 games below .500 and have a worse record than the Braves. Yet, that is exactly where they are at coming into today. They've lost two of the first three games here at SunTrust Park where the home team is (finally) starting to pick up the pace, winning four of its last five. After allowing San Fran to tie the game w/ runs scored in the eighth and ninth innings last night, the Braves were able to win - in walk-off fashion - on a two-run HR by Matt Kemp in the bottom of the 11th. That's a really demoralizing loss for a Giants team that is now shockingly third worst in all of MLB w/ a -90 run differential after dropping 10 of its last 12 including 1-6 on the road trip that ends today. I believe it will end w/ a loss. 

Matt Cain is not a good pitcher. The Giants starter for Thursday comes in w/ a 6.91 ERA and 2.303 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing only two runs (just one earned) his last time out, in Colorado. That, right there, should tell you how bad he'd been previously. In road starts, he's 0-4 in seven tries w/ a 7.46 ERA and 2.058 WHIP. Overall, the team has dropped five of his last six starts. The really worrisome factor for Cain is his low strikeout totals. There have been only three times all year where he's struck out more than three batters, the last one coming back on May 15th. He did already lose to Atlanta once this year, though that had more to do w/ the other pitcher, Jaime Garcia.

Cain will again be facing Garcia tonight. The Braves lefty will be looking to bounce back from an ugly showing in Miami last week where he allowed six runs. Performances such as that one have been few and far between for Garcia, however. Note that the six earned runs allowed last Saturday equaled the number he'd allowed in his previous five starts combined. During that stretch, he posted a 1.49 ERA. He's been the Braves pitcher this season and has had success in the past against the Giants, going 4-1 w/ a 2.54 ERA in five career starts. That includes him throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings last month in San Fran and he allowed just four hits. He's recorded 16 K's his L2 starts overall and the home run ball has not been an issue for him. The Giants are an atrocious 13-29 on the road this year and overall, the offense ranks 28th in runs scored, batting average and OBP. They're 30th (last) in slugging. 8* Atlanta

8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. It probably shouldn't be considered a shock that Houston has come into Oakland this week and dominated the home team, taking the first three games of the series by a cummulative score of 17-6. After all, the Astros have the best record in all of baseball while the A's are the American League's worst team. Right now, 17.5 games separate the two clubs in the West. But, in this day and age, it has become increasingly harder to sweep a four-game series as the road team. That's my initial read on this matchup and for once, it also looks like Oakland may have the edge in starting pitching as well. Just to be "safe," I'll be taking the added insurance that the RL provides here.

Remember that in the series prior to this one, the A's actually swept the Yankees! That included a start from today's starter Jesse Hahn, who went five innings, allowing only two runs on three hits on Saturday. Hahn now has a 2.81 ERA his L3 starts overall. Though he hasn't always pitched deep into games, there's been only one time all year that he's conceded more than 3 ER in a start. He had the unfortunate task of facing Dallas Keuchel the last time he saw the Astros, but thankfully today he's only being opposed by David Paulino, who has a 5.03 ERA in just four starts (none of them longer than six innings) this season. While Houston continues to win at an extraordinary rate on the road (26-8!), Oakland actually has a winning record at home (22-16) and that record was obviously a lot better before this series got underway. 

Note that coming into this series, it had been a long time since Houston strung togther consecutive victories. They'd actually gone nearly two full weeks w/o doing it. Now, they have won NINE straight times here in Oakland, which is their longest win streak at any stadium (besides their own) since they were a still a member of the National League and won 11 straight times at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark from 2007-09. All streaks must come to an end, however. Last night's victory saw a lot of "cluster luck" as basically one big inning drove the victory. I'm willing to bank that the A's do no worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Toronto (2:05 ET): In both 2015 and '16, the Blue Jays had their season end in the ALCS, losing to the Royals and Indians respectively. Texas is no stranger to the postseason either. They made B2B World Series appearances in 2010 & '11 (lost both times) and actually finished w/ the American League's best overall record LY (more on that in a moment). But it's looking less and less likely that these two perennial playoff teams will be back in the postseason this year. Toronto got off to a horrible start, one that they're just now starting to climb out of. Texas, on the other hand, actually now has a better YTD run differential (+15) than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (+8), but their record in one-run games has regressed from a historic 36-11 last year to 4-11 so far this year. 

So that's where we are w/ these two teams entering Thursday. The Jays have taken two of the first three games here in Arlington this week, including a 7-5 win last night. Today, they have Marcus Stroman on the bump and I expect them to win the series. Last night, the Jays raced out to an early 7-0 lead, scoring six of those runs in the top half of the 1st. That was more than enough for starter Joe Biagini, although the Rangers did rally a bit to make things close for the final three frames. A repeat of that kind of offensive production would certainly be more than enough for Stroman, who has actually done his best work on the road this year. His TSR is 5-0 in six road starts w/ a 2.95 ERA. His L3 starts overall have seen him deliver a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and that's despite suffering a shocking loss (as a massive -235 ML favorite) his last time out vs. the White Sox. He allowed three solo home runs in that game, which proved to be his undoing. 

However, let's keep a couple things in perspective, shall we? One, the number of HR's allowed by Stroman in his last start were equal to the number he'd allowed in his previous seven - combined. He's also allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight outings. It's a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here as Stroman is opposed by Martin Perez, who grades out as perhaps the worst starting pitcher on today's slate of games. Perez comes in sporting a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP his L3 starts, even though he won his last one (first win since 5.18). Rarely this year has the southpaw produced B2B quality outings. In fact, last time out wasn't even a quality outing as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP, but was bailed out by his offense scoring 10 times. That won't happen here. This is a very big game for the Blue Jays as they have a chance (for the 1st time all season!) to get back to .500. 8* Toronto

8* Run Line Philadelphia (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again, one last time. The Phils came into this series w/ revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered earlier this month in St. Louis. That triggers one of my favorite angles, which is to simply take the team playing w/ revenge for the prior sweep. As a bit of "added insurance," I've played Philly on the RL (+1.5) both games here. The fact I've only managed to walk away w/ a split and that the Phils didn't win either game is a miscarraige of justice in my book. Tuesday saw the teams tied (1-1) going into extra innings, which is when the "dam broke" and the Cardinals wound up scoring seven times in the top of the 11th! Last night, while I did cash my ticket, was even more painful for the few remaining Phillies' fans. They blew a 5-0 lead and again lost in extra innings, this time by a score of 7-6. Thankfully, them allowing two runs in the top of the 10th didn't burn me as they at least managed to score one in the bottom half of that inning.

The Phillies were one out away from snapping this losing streak of theirs when they surrendered the game-tying run in the top of the ninth. It marked the first time in over 50 tries that the Cards were able to erase a deficit of five or more runs and come back to win. The poor Phillies. They've now lost three straight extra inning games and six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. They outhit the Cardinals yday, 16-9. Yes, they now have the worst record in baseball after dropping 13 of 14 overall and 39 of their last 50 (yikes!). But St. Louis still has a losing road record and factoring out the Phillies, their record is just 3-12 in June.

Both teams will be sending out their strongest pitchers Thursday afternoon. For the Redbirds, Carlos Martinez has been sharp of late, posting an 0.844 WHIP his L3 turns. That includes a CG effort against these Phillies where he struck out 11 batters and allowed only four hits. But like his team, Martinez tends to struggle far more on the road where his ERA is 4.50 and his WHIP is 1.361. For the Phils, Aaron Nola's numbers may not "knock your socks off," but one thing that I've noticed is he rarely turns in B2B subpar efforts. Last time out, against a fierce Arizona offense, he allowed five runs. I expect him to pitch MUCH better today. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Even at 35-33, the Twins would still qualify as a major surprise this year as you have to remember they lost 100+ games LY. Therefore, the fact they are an awful 15-24 at Target Field is downright shocking. But after being swept by Cleveland here at home over the weekend, they got to welcome the last place White Sox to town Tuesday and w/ their #1 pitcher (Ervin Santana) on the hill, they were able to eke out a 9-7 victory. Tonight, the pitching matchup actually looks even more lopsided (in the Twins' favor) as Jose Berrios (#2 starter) will be opposed by David Holmberg, who grades out as the weakest starter on the entire Wednesday slate. I believe that Minnesota's home record is likely to continue to progress to the mean, so another win should be in the cards here tonight.

Berrios has been a solid #2 guy in the rotation behind Santana. He carries a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in seven starts w/ the team winning six of them. He's off a season-high eight inning effort against Seattle last Thursday as he allowed just two runs and five hits. At home, his numbers have been slightly better. Among qualified starters, Berrios' 0.871 WHIP is among the best in all of baseball. While he has yet to contribute to his team's 6-3 record against the White Sox this season, he should fare well here against an offense that's likely to start regressing in the coming days. The White Sox are averaging just 4.3 rpg on the road so far. That's a big reason they're just 16-26 away from home.

Holmberg has made just four starts this season for Chicago and his numbers may not seem to indicate he's likely to turn in one of the worst pitching performances on Wednesday. In fact, the Sox have actually won three of those four starts. But this is a pitcher w/ low strikeout numbers and he's also yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start. A 10-8 KW ratio in those four starts is indicative of someone who should NOT be winning and thus trouble may lie ahead. The White Sox are an interesting study as they have a positive run differential this year (+2) despite the losing record, but I don't think anyone envisions this pitching staff continuing its surprising early season success. Juxtapose that w/ Minnesota, who has a winning record, yet has been outscored by 42 runs over the course of the season. But again, that home record is very likely to improve moving forward. So I'll actually ignore what the respective run differentials say and back the team that - clearly - has the better starting pitcher on the hill tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Last night's final score, which was 8-1 in favor of the Cardinals, is as misleading as it gets. The game was tied 1-1 heading into the 11th inning, which is when the Philly bullpen faltered and gave the game away. For someone who had the Phils +1.5, extra innings was certainly a "worst case scenario" for yours truly. The end result is that the home team still has revenge for not just last night, but also a prior three-game sweep that happened down in St. Louis earlier in the month. Bad teams have gotten me into a bit of trouble w/ this time-tested angle recently, but I still believe strongly in it and thus I'm comfortable in saying the Phillies will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

Prior to extra innings last night, the game's only two runs both came early. It was pretty sad to see Philadelphia waste a strong effort on the mound from starter Jeremy Hellickson, who allowed only six hits and one run (coming via a solo HR) in seven innings of work. But I'm thinking the team is in position to get another quality start tonight, this time as Nick Pivetta toes the rubber. The rookie right-hander is off the best start of his career as he actually outdueled Boston' Chris Sale last Thursday by tossing seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball. That also happens to be the Phillies' ONLY win over the last 13 games. But take away the Phillies and the Cardinals haven't been much better here in June. They're just 3-12 against everyone else this month, so there's no reason to think the Phils can't do what everyone else has been doing, even if they do own the worst record in all of baseball.

Like virtually all other Cardinals' pitchers, Michael Wacha got off to a solid start this season, only to regress over the last month or so. His lone quality start over the last five outings did come against these Phillies, but it was at home. On the road this season, Wacha has a 7.53 ERA and 1.820 WHIP, ugly numbers indeed. Last time out, at home vs. Milwaukee, he allowed four runs and seven hits in just four innings of work. As you might expect from a team w/ the worst record in all of baseball, the Phils are starting to make wholesale changes to the roster, calling up a number of players from the Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley while designating for assignment several ineffective ones. The Cards have a sub-.500 road record remember and also have a losing record this season off a win. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

8* Washington (12:10 ET): Max Scherzer at this price seems like a real bargain, even if his adversary (Dan Straily) is somewhat formidable. Miami's starter comes into Wednesday afternoon's matinee sporting a 3.58 ERA and 1.128 WHIP, making his 7-7 overall team start record a bit misleading. But there's nothing misleading about Scherzer, who comes into today w/ a 2.26 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. He's been even better on the road than at home and of late, he's been downright dominant everywhere he's pitched. We're talking a 1.21 ERA and 0.672 WHIP his L3 starts including another double digit strikeout performance his last time out. Scherzer's last five starts have all been quality (four of them he allowed 1 ER or less) and his KW ratio during that time is 58-7.

Let it be noted that the Nationals did drop the series opener here in Miami, losing 8-7 Monday. That game saw them blow an early 6-0 lead and lose on a walk-off. But there was no Marlins comeback yday as the Nats essentially dominated from "start to finish" in a 12-3 victory. This time, the bulk of their runs scored came at the end of the game (scored five times in the top of the ninth). There is no denying that Washington is running away w/ the NL East this year as they are 10.5 games up on the rest of the pack. Considering a 22-14 record vs the rest of the division, I think it's safe to just hand over the pennant now. The Nats are also a very strong 25-14 on the road this season, one of the best such marks in all of baseball. 

Having Scherzer on the hill is one thing. Pairing him w/ one of the top offenses in the game is another. With 19 runs already scored in this series, the Nats are back on top for most runs scored in all of MLB. They also rank 2nd in team batting average and slugging percentage and 3rd in OBP. Tonight will certainly be a challenge for Straily, who was already beat up once by these Nats back in April. In what is still his worst start of '17 to day, he allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Anything similar would basically be an "automatic loss" facing Scherzer, who iis 4-1 w/ a 2.60 ERA in five career starts in this ballpark. In all road starts this season, Scherzer has allowed just 31 hits in 58 2/3 IP. Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in an eight-inning effort at Citi Field (NY Mets). 8* Washington

10* Over D'backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): Raise your hand if, coming into the 2017 season, you thought a mid-June series between Arizona and Colorado would be compelling. Now that I see no hands, let the analysis begin! These two NL West rivals rank not only 1-2 in terms of "biggest surprises" in all of baseball this season, but they're also the top two teams at the betting window as well. They come into this series just one game apart in the standings (Colorado ahead) and both are red hot. The Rockies have won five straight (just swept the Giants) while the D'backs have won seven in a row (just swept the Phillies). I'm staying away from the side in this one, but this being Coors Field and all, an Over play certainly does not seem like a stretch.

Zack Greinke is pitching for Arizona, which you might think gives them a significant advantage. Greinke has already faced Colorado twice in 2017, once at home and once on the road, and both were quality starts. Ironically, it was at home where he gave up three home runs (all of the solo variety) to them. But the challenges of the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the history of MLB still persist. The Rockies average 6.0 rpg at home and just put 32 runs on the board in the last series. They are tied for #2 in most runs scored in all of MLB. Grienke has allowed five runs in each of his last two road starts, although all five were unearned his last time out. 

It should also be pointed out that the Rockies got away w/ allowing eight and nine runs respectively in two of the wins in the last series. Arizona's offense, already one of the best in the game, should thrive in this environment. They come into this series ranked fifth in runs scored. While the numbers are certainly more impressive at home than on the road, they did score exactly five times in all three wins over Philadelphia. They should certainly get their chances against Rockies' starter German Marquez, who has a 5.70 ERA at home. Yes, Marquez has allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last seven starts, but almost all of those came on the road. He also did allow six runs at San Diego, one of the most pitcher friendly environments in all of baseball. He's faced Arizona twice this season and lost both times. One of those was here at Coors and he allowed five runs in 6 IP. I was surprised to find that all three games in the first series the teams played at Coors stayed Under. That's a trend I do not expect to continue. 10* Over D'backs/Rockies

10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Earlier this month, the Cardinals swept a three-game set from the Phillies (at home), setting up this revenge angle. Going into that last series, St. Louis had actually dropped seven in a row, all on the road. Though they would go on to sweep the Phils, things really haven't turned around in the Gateway City as the club has now lost five of six coming into tonight. Now, Philly has never recovered from being swept in St. Louis as they have lost 11 of 12 (lone win was 1-0 over Chris Sale!). Performances from both the Reds and Giants this past weekend showed that blindly taking the revenge angle doesn't always work, but I still believe in it and feel the Phils will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

As a 13-19 record suggests, the Cardinals aren't a good team on the road. They allow 5.3 runs per game and are also just 1-4 in the -125 to -175 range on the money line. Yes, the Phillies now own the worst record in all of MLB and have been swept a total of eight times already this season. But, let's note that two of the three losses in St. Louis earlier this month came by one run margins. That was also the case in the series against Boston and Arizona. In sum, seven of the team's last 10 games have been decided by one run, six of those being losses. No team can claim to have played more one run games this year than the Phillies (27), though the Cardinals (22) aren't too far behind themselves.

Neither pitcher that will be toeing the rubber this evening comes in displaying fine form. At one point, the Cards' Mike Leake was 5-2 w/ a 1.91 ERA this season. But he's since regressed badly, dropping four consecutive starts, his last one being the ugliest as he allowed six runs over six innings. Interestingly enough, Leake's career 5.40 ERA vs. Philadelphia is his worst against any opponent he's made at least four starts against. Now, right now, it may similarly be difficult to praise Phillies' starter Jeremy Hellickson. He too allowed six runs in his last outing, giving him an 0-4 record (7.57 ERA) his L5 turns. That's probably a "market correction" after Hellickson began the year w/ a very surprising 8-1 TSR (six of those wins coming by one run!). Maybe he loses this one by a one run margin, or maybe the Phils pull the upset. 10* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Last night's series opener saw the O's get whitewashed (lost 12-0!) by Cleveland, dropping them to an ugly 12-25 their 37 games overall including 3-9 their last 12. It was an all-around ugly performance Monday night as the Tribe's Corey Kluber silenced the Baltimore bats, allowing just three hits in a complete game shutout. It was somewhat reminiscint of another ugly loss for Baltimore, an 11-2 setback against St. Louis last Friday. Of course, I would jump on the Baltimore bandwagon the next day and they would reward me w/ a 15-7 beatdown of the Cards. Same strategy here and just for a little "added insurance," I'll grab the +1.5 to boot.

Last season saw Chris Tillman post one of the best ROI's (return on investments) in all of baseball as he was top four in net units earned. I felt he was fortunate to do so as his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of dominating performances. Sure enough, the O's starter has regressed badly in 2017, particularly of late. The team has lost each of the last five times he's started w/ him posting a 12.09 ERA and 2.528 WHIP his last three. As awful as that all sounds, it's largely all tied to one disastrous showing at Yankee Stadium ten days ago. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to now see Tillman turn things around somewhat, at least here at Camden Yards where the Orioles are still 23-12 this season. 

Cleveland is just 2-5 this year when off a shut out victory, so again, there's some real value in fading them in this spot. Especially because there's obviously no Kluber here. Instead, it will be Josh Tomlin on the mound and like Tillman, he's been struggling. His L3 starts have resulted in a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He got away w/ allowing two home runs his last time out due to his own offense scoring 12 times for him. But as good as the Indians' offense has looked recently, that amount of support simply cannot be counted upon on a nightly basis, so don't be surprised if Cleveland were to have an "off night" at the plate here. Over the course of the season, this hasn't been a top 10 offense, whether you're talking runs scored (14th), team batting average (12th) or OBP (11th). 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

10* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cubs MINUS 1.5 runs. The reigning World Series Champs enter the day at .500, a record that obviously is considered a massive disappointment at this juncture of the season. But, without question, the nadir of the team's 2017 (so far) was getting swept out in San Diego back at the end of May. The team immediately followed that w/ a five-game win streak (all here at home), but has again regressed by playing below .500 ball (4-7) its last 11 games. Those who follow me regularly know I'm keen on the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep). Over the weekend, we were afforded the opportunity to take teams playing w/ revenge PLUS the 1.5 on the RL. Here, it is the opposite as the money line is (predictably) high on the Cubs. But I have no problem calling for a blowout here as San Diego is the worst team in all of baseball (-113 run differential).

A .500 finish was a pipedream for these Padres coming into 2017 as they were widely expected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year and that's what they are. Their aforementioned run differential is 23 runs worse than the second worst team (Philadelphia). On the road is where things get really ugly. They are 11-24 away from Petco Park and being outscored - on average - by 1.8 runs per game. Only Oakland has been outscored by more on the road this season. The team arrives in the Windy City actually having won four of six w/ both losses coming by one run, so they're probably "due" to get blown out here anyway. Starter Clayton Richard has a 4.29 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and when he gets beat, like a 15-3 loss at Arizona in his last road start, it's often very badly.

Meanwhile, Cubs starter Jon Lester is off a very big win his last time out, 14-3 over the Mets. He struck out 10 while allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. Here at home, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team won two of three over the weekend in Pittsburgh, both wins coming by margins of four runs or greater. The offense has picked up w/ Anthony Rizzo hitting leadoff as he alone is 9 for 22 w/ three home runs since the change was made. Overall, Rizzo comes into tonight on a 12-game hit streak (.409 BA). The Cubs should have no problem winning this game by a margin of two runs or greater and in all likelihood will go on to dominate this series as a whole. 10* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* Over Reds/Rays (7:10 ET): We have yet another National League team playing in an American League stadium here, so that means the DH is in play and my natural lean is always towards the Over. In this particular instance, the NL team in question (Cincinnati) is already more than capable of putting runs on the board w/ its normal lineup (4.9 rpg) that includes the pitcher coming up to bat. The Reds scored seven times yday (still lost by 1), but it was a welcome rally for me as I had them on the run line. But the DH being in play "works both ways" of course and that likely means trouble for a team that is giving up an average of 7.0 rpg and .300 opponents batting average in the last seven games of its current nine-game losing streak. Tonight's pitching matchup is hardly a battle of "Cy Young candidates" either. Take the Over.

Tampa Bay comes into tonight's opener off a 3-3 road trip. They were able to take the last two games in Detroit to salvage a split there and are now the team that occupies the second Wild Card position in the American League. After ranking near the bottom of MLB in runs scored last season, the Rays are up to a far more respectable 8th this year. They scored nine time in yday's victory over the Tigers. At home, the team is generally much better as they are 21-15 w/ 4.9 rpg scored. The only problem I see for them tonight is Jake Odorizzi is on the hill and his L3 starts have brought a 6.08 ERA + 1.800 WHIP. Consider he's also allowed an additional seven unearned runs during that stretch as well. Last time out, he failed to get out of the fifth inning and was inefficient in doing so, still throwing 99 pitches. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one start in 2017. 

The Reds were expected to be among the worst teams in baseball this year, so I can't say this nine-game losing streak of theirs is a total surprise. Monday's starter Scott Feldman is hardly what you'd call a "stopper" either. Feldman has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts overall. He comes in w/ a 5.58 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in six previous road starts. The last one came at San Diego and he lasted only five innings in that pitcher-friendly environment while giving up four runs. While I suppose there's a good chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth this evening, I still feel the teams will combine for enough offense to send this one Over the total. 10* Over Reds/Rays

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:05 ET): In what could be hailed as a potential "playoff preview," Boston and Houston have split the first two games of this three-game set at Minute Maid Park. That sets up tonight's rubber match w/ a pitching matchup of David Price and Joe Musgrove. While the results of the first two games were much different, both have been low-scoring, and as a result the Under is 2-0. Since opening this eight-game road trek w/ a 7-3 win over Philadelphia, the Red Sox offense has been virtually non-existent. They did win Friday's opener here, 2-1, but they've totaled just three runs in the last three games. Houston, of course, is tops in all of baseball on the runs allowed side of the ledger. These factors as well as the O/U line itself have me calling for another Under tonight.

When David Price returned to the Red Sox rotation, the idea was that he and Chris Sale would form the top 1-2 punch among American League rotations. Sale largely continues to hold up his "end of the bargain," but Price has mostly been a disappointment. Price's four starts thus far have resulted in a 5.09 ERA and 1.217 WHIP, but those numbers are a little misleading in the sense that they are negatively skewed by one poor outing at Yankee Stadium. Price has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of the other three and last time out saw him go six innings and allow only four hiits. The Houston lineup has been very "hit or miss" lately, scoring three runs or fewer in its last three losses while totaling 20 runs in its last two wins. All-time, the Astros are hitting just .212 against Price as the big southpaw has turned in a 2.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven career starts w/ a 61-8 KW ratio.

Thus, the major problem I see for Price here is run support, or rather lack of it. Visiting teams are batting just .216 this season at Minute Maid Park and the Red Sox have certainly done little at the plate so far in this series by scoring just three times on 10 hits. Over the L7 games, Houston pitchers have allowed just a .202 opponents' batting average. Musgrove is hardly the stalwart of the starting rotation, but he looked good in his return from the DL on Monday. He'll probably be working limited innings again tonight, but that's fine as Houston has a strong bullpen that can carry the load. The Under is 6-2 in Musgrove's eight home starts this year. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros

8* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. Similar to the Reds, the Giants have put my strategy of (blindly) taking teams w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) to the test this weekend. Note that they did cash via the RL on Thursday. But now it's Sunday and they still haven't beaten the Rockies this weekend. In fact, they've now lost to them EIGHT consecutive times. This head to head record is largely responsible for the massive 18.5 game gap that now exists between the two clubs in the NL West standings. But earlier in the weekend (Thursday) we saw the Tigers gain revenge for a previous sweep (against the Rays) and last night the Angels did the same to the Royals. I believe the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss today.

The first two games of this series were certainly competitive w/ a late rally pulling San Fran even going into the bottom of the ninth Thursday (lost on a walkoff). Then, they jumped out to an early 4-1 lead in Friday's game. But since then, it's been "all Colorado" w/ them outcoring SF 14-5. Giants' skipper Bruce Bochy pretty much summed it all up when he said, "We're not doing enough to win the ballgames. We score 17 runs in the first two games and we can't get a win, and we get a pretty good pitching job and we get one run today. That's kind of how it's gone for us." Bochy's team certainly had its chances yday as they had 10 hits, one in every inning against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, but they just couldn't get the runners home.

Denver native Ty Blach will get the baseball today for the G-Men. Yes, he did get charged w/ allowing seven runs his last time out, but that was a tad bit misleading as a bloop hit w/ the bases loaded did him in. He started June w/ a CG effort at Philadelphia and had allowed 3 ER or less in his final four starts of May. I expect Blach to bounce back today. He has only faced the Rockies in relief (four times) in his young career, but has turned in six scoreless innings. Tyler Chatwood will oppose him and this game being at Coors Field is, ironically, not good for the home pitcher. That's because Chatwood's numbers, are much worse at home than on the road. Yes, that's a bit predictable, but for Chatwood the dichotomy is striking. In six home starts, he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.751 WHIP. His road ERA is 2.41. If you're looking at only recent numbers, note that each of Chatwood's last three starts were on the road. His last start at Coors saw him allow six runs in 4 1/3 innings and that was to Seattle team that uncharacteristically had to send the pitcher up to bat. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets are facing the prospect of being swept at home, in a four-game series no less. But they have Jacob deGrom to "save" them Sunday, so I'll be calling for them to avoid the dubious distinction (four game sweeps by a road team are rare). Clearly, the National League East race is "all over but the shouting" this season w/ the Nats currently holding an 11-game lead over the rest of the field. The Mets, one of the biggest disappointments in all of MLB, are 11.5 gms back. This season has been riddled w/ injuries, but as mentioned earlier, at least they have deGrom here. Yes, he did have B2B poor starts on 5.31 and 6.6, but he bounced back Monday by delivering a five-hit complete game against the Cubs here at Citi Field. But perhaps the most important thing of all is the Mets will no longer have to face Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg.

Washington had come into this series as losers of five of their last six, all at home, to Texas and Atlanta. But their rotation lined up perfectly for this series w/ Scherzer and Strasburg pitching the L2 days and they've now outscored the Mets 22-9 for the series. But today they'll have Joe Ross on the bump and clearly that's not as an attractive an option as Strasburg or Scherzer. Hence, for the 1st time all series, the Nats are an underdog on the ML. This will be just the 12th time all year that they've been available at 'plus money.' Ross comes in w/ a very misleading 6-2 team start record as his ERA is 6.39 and his WHIP is 1.511. On the road, the numbers get even uglier (8.59, 1.636). Last time out, he got away w/ allowing five runs and a negative KW ratio (2-3) against the lowly Braves. Other factors to consider here is that the Nats' bullpen (5.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) is shaky at best and the team's record when on a win streak of three or more games is only 6-6 this year. 

deGrom has a 3.40 ERA in nine career starts vs. Washington, much better than the 5.16 ERA Ross has in his four career starts vs. the Mets. New York has struggled at home this season, mainly due to the offensive numbers being far inferior compared to what they are on the road. But against Ross, they should have their chances at the plate today. They certainly had chances last night as well w/ the potential go-ahead run at the plate in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. Failing to cash in all three times was brutal in an eventual 7-4 loss, but I don't envision them falling behind tonight w/ deGrom on the hill. Three times in his last five starts, deGrom has allowed 1 ER or less. 8* NY Mets

8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm playing the Reds +1.5. My typically "foolproof" strategy of taking teams playing with revenge for a previous sweep (of three games or more) has admittedly been put to the test this weekend, by not only Cincinnati, but San Francisco as well. Today represents the Reds final shot at beating the Dodgers not just this weekend, but for all of 2017. They are 0-5 against them so far this season as they were also swept last weekend at Chavez Ravine. In retrospect, there was a danger in backing the Reds "blindly" as they are clearly the inferior club, which shows not just in the YTD record, but also the fact they are just 3-16 vs. LA the last three seasons, one of the worst head to head marks in the league during that time. But still, at least cashing on the RL is something they should be able to do, especially here at home. I believe in the revenge angle and will try one final time here w/ the Reds.

Four of the five losses to the Dodgers this year have been by at least two runs. Yesterday was the most lopsided of the bunch as the Reds fell 10-2 w/ LA homering four times on a day meant to honor Pete Rose. It was the Reds' eighth loss in a row overall, five of those to the Dodgers. These are the ugly truths we are up against here. But they are getting a big break Sunday w/ Kenta Maeda being reinserted into the starting rotation in what was originally scheduled for a Clayton Kershaw start. (I probably wouldn't have taken Cincy here were Kershaw on the mound). Maeda made his first career relief appearance back on June 9th against the Reds and actually got the save. But as a starter, his ERA is 5.10 this year and his WHIP is 1.28. The numbers get worse on the road (6.26, 1.478) and Maeda's been remarkably inefficient all year, only twice making it past the fifth inning while at the same time averaging around 92 pitchers per start. 

Bronson Arroyo will be getting the baseball for Cincy's last stand against the Dodgers. The veteran certainly can't be any worse here than he was his last time out, when he allowed nine runs (in 4 2/3 IP) to San Diego. But the team is 5-2 this year when he starts at Great American Ballpark, contributing to their overall winning record here. Something else to note is the Reds are a strong 7-2 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Angels have really let me down the L2 days, losing both games to the Royals and scoring only three runs in the process. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Royals this season. Kansas City, winners of six in a row, has undoubtedly picked up team on this West Coast swing, but I still believe the Halos are due to break through w/ a win this weekend. After being dominated by Royals' pitching the L2 days, tonight's matchup on the mound seems to be squarely in the home team's favor, which helps big time. I know I've said it each of the L2 days (and been wrong!), but look for (at long last!) the Angels to finally beat Kansas City. 

Starting here for Los Angeles will be Adam Meyer. His team start record over his L3 starts is 0-3, but that's grossly misleading. His ERA during that time is 1.62. Control issues (five walks) plagued him his last time out, a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, but the two starts before that were the definition of "hard luck." Both saw him allow just one run over six innings, yet neither team was the offense able to pick him up. At home this year, Meyer has a 2.61 ERA in four starts. Were it not for poor run support, his TSR would be a lot better than 1-3. While their bats have awoken on this road trip, let's not lose sight of the fact that the fact that the Royals still rank 27th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in OBP. They had put together three straight games of  15+ hits going into yday, but that was only the FIFTH time in franchise history they had done so.

While offense has been a problem in this series and for Meyer most of the year, I'm confident that tonight is the Angels night to break out at the plate b/c they are going up against Jake Junis, who in three starts has produced a 7.04 ERA and 1.760 WHIP. Yet he has somehow managed to win all three of them! (Meyer has to be kicking himself). Junis got away w/ allowing three home runs his last time out (to San Diego!) as they were all of the solo variety. The Padres, if you are unaware, happen to the worst offensive team in all of baseball. So there is definitely hope for the Halos here. I've gotta believe that a team that is 52-21 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 price range the L3 seasons is "due" for a win tonight. 10* LA Angels

10* Run Line Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I taking the Reds +1.5. I understand that this is probably considered another "unpopular" side today (theme of this 3-Game report?), but I remain firm in my belief in the revenge angle here. Cincinnati got the pitching it needed last night, but the offense wasn't there to support it in a 3-1 loss. It was their seventh loss in a row, four of those coming to the Dodgers. But I don't think that they'll lose them all to LA this weekend, not at home. The Reds actually have a winning record (19-16) here at Great American Ballpark thanks in large part to averaging 5.5 runs per game here. If they can get to that average, starter Asher Wojciechowski should handle the rest and I don't see the team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

This will be Wojciechowski's seventh start of the year. In the interest of full disclosure, he has allowed four or more runs in five of the previous six. Last weekend at Dodger Stadium, he allowed four runs and six hits in five innings (no walks). But the end result only ended up being a one-run loss, a result that we will obviously accept here. That last start also came opposite Alex Wood, who shut down the Reds again last night. Here, he'll be facing Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has allowed 4 runs in B2B starts, including one vs. Cincy. The Reds actually tagged Ryu for three home runs Sunday, so they were very fortunate to come out ahead in that one. 

Ryu has actually not won on the road this season, going 0-4 in five starts (0-5 TSR). His ERA (4.62) and WHIP (1.539 WHIP) are very poor outside of Chavez Ravine. In four career starts vs. the Reds, Ryu's ERA is 4.44. It's not as if the Dodgers' offense did much last night either. They finished w/ just three runs on seven hits. I expect the Reds' bats to wake back up as they have homered in 22 of the past 25 games. Additionally, they the lead the league in stolen bases. 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (4:05 ET): St. Louis definitely took full advantage of the designated hitter last night, scoring 11 runs in a rout of Baltimore. The offensive outburst left me happy as I was on the Over. I was a little disappointed w/ the Orioles, however, as I would have expected more of a "fight" in their return to Camden Yards after a rather disastrous 1-7 road trip. As bad of form as the O's have flashed recently, let's not forget that they are still 21-11 here at home, even after yday's loss. This is a pretty good value I think as the Cardinals have not only lost money on the road, but also in interleague play. They came into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Milwaukee and 20 of 29 overall, including eight straight on the road.

Those who follow me regularly know I constantly stress the value of a team's YTD run differential. Baltimore's is now -56 after losing big Friday, which says they should feel pretty fortunate to still be within two games of .500. However, that run diff skewing so negative is largely due to the recent road trip where they were outscored 38-8 by the Yankees alone. So, as bad as that run diff looks right now, it's probably a bit misleading. Again, they've been a FAR better team at home where they allow just 4.3 runs per game. Wade Miley, off an ugly start in Chicago on Monday, has pitched far better at home (2.15 ERA in six starts). The lefty toes the rubber tonight hoping for a performance along the lines of June 1st's outing here vs. Boston when he went seven innings and allowed just one run on five hits. The Cardinals traditionally struggle vs. southpaws and are just 7-8 against LH starters this year.

Aiding the Orioles cause this afternoon will be going up against the struggling Adam Wainwright. Once a Cy Young contender (years ago), Wainwright has struggled in 2017, particularly on the road. In six road starts, he has a 7.28 ERA and 1.753 WHIP. His overall numbers, whether recent or over the course of the entire season, aren't much better. His last road start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs in only 3 2/3 IP and that was against Cincinnati. At the end of the day, I just don't believe Baltimore is as bad as they've looked recently and I think that they're due for a bit of a turnaround on this homestand. 8* Baltimore

10* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. After cashing them on the RL Thursday, the Giants let me down on the money line last night. Ironically, it was a late rally that enabled me to cash + the 1.5 Thursday, but last night a 4-1 lead quickly evaporated into a 10-8 defeat. That drops the Giants to 1-8 head to head w/ the Rockies this season, including SEVEN straight losses! Can this Colorado domination continue? Despite what the NL standings say, I'm going to continue to count on "no" being the answer to that question. Revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) remains one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and I'm not about to "deviate from the script." 

You obviously won't be hearing Matt Cain's name being mentioned for Cy Young consideration in 2017. The Giants starter comes into today having allowed 5 ER in B2B outings. But Colorado's Kyle Freeland hardly is in fine form either after allowing five runs himself his last time out. Certainly, offense has not been a problem for the visitors in this series. They've scored 17 runs in the first two games. The problem is that they've allowed 20. So Cain's job here is to work on bringing that second number down. He is certainly familiar w/ the Rockies and pitching here at Coors Field as this will be his 39th career start against them (most of any pitcher) and 19th in Denver. He is 17-10 w/ a 3.52 ERA all-time against them. Interestingly, he has not faced the Rockies yet in 2017, so don't blame him for the poor head to head record.

Colorado, despite having the best overall record in the National League, has actually been better on the road than at home this season. I'm still skeptical of their long-term prospects as they're a fortunate 10-2 in one-run games. The starting rotation remains young and unproven. Freeland does have a win over the Giants earlier in the year, but he's a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 47-30 KW rate for the year. He's also allowed at least one home run in six consecutive outings. As we've seen in each of the first two games of this series, the Rockies' bullpen is hardly impressive either (5.45 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). I realize it may not be a popular opinion right now, but I do believe the Giants can beat the Rockies. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels are now 0-4 vs. the Royals this year after dropping last night's series opener by a score of 7-2. I don't expect that winless mark to continue "forever," so I'm back on the Halos at home tonight. Kansas City has all of a sudden picked up steam here, winning five straight on the West Coast w/ an average over eight runs scored per game. But again, that is something I can't see lasting given the fact their offense still ranks 27th in runs scored overall, not to mention 29th in OBP and 25th in slugging. They also have Ian Kennedy going tonight, who is not only winless in 11 starts this year (3-8 TSR), but hasn't won a decision since September 11th of last season. 

Kennedy comes into tonight sporting an unsightly 8.36 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. Now only that, but he's also allowed at least four runs in SIX consecutive starts. His last one marked the ONLY time that he'd made it through six innings during that stretch. If you thought the news couldn't get any worse for Kennedy, then think again as the California native is also winless (0-4) in six career starts here in Anaheim. A recent visit down I-405 wasn't any better even though it was against the sorry Padres, who are the worst offensive team in all of baseball. That start came Saturday and the only reason Kennedy isn't 0-7 is because his offense bailed him out w/ a nine-run 8th inning. His 5.40 ERA is his worst ever for a season w/ 10+ starts.

The Angels will look to bounce back behind Jesse Chavez, who has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts. He's gone at least seven innings all three times. His overall record (5-5 in 13 starts) would be a lot better if not for some lousy run support as the offense has supplied him w/ three or fewer runs in eight of those starts. Thankfully, that changed his last time out (ironically in a bad outing by Chavez) as they scored 12 times in a win over the Astros as big +165 underdogs on the money line. Chavez has certainly pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City as he has a 1.65 ERA in six career appearances (some of them coming as a reliever). Remember what I said yday as well: the Angels are a good home team (still 20-13) while KC is still only 14-18 on the road despite the now five-game win streak. 10* LA Angels

10* San Francisco (8:40 ET): Thank goodness for the run line as it (along w/ Giants "rally") saved me last night. I had San Fran +1.5 yday and things were looking quite bleak as they trailed 9-1 entering the top of the seventh. But from there, they would actually go on to score the game's next eight runs, tying things up heading into the bottom of the ninth. They'd end up losing, 10-9, but that was fine by me thanks to the run line. The RL is not an option tonight, however, but that's okay as we have Jeff Samardzija going on the hill. Since the start of May, the former Notre Dame wide reciever has posted an incredible 65-2 KW ratio! He may have been undone by a pair of home runs his last time out, but I have him getting the job done tonight against what I still feel is a slightly overrated Rockies club. 

Colorado certainly has had the Giants' number here in 2017. They're 7-1 head to head with them and have won the past six matchups. That and the fact they're now 10-2 in one-run contests are why they lead their division rivals by a stunning 16.5 games in the NL West. However, quite curiously, the Rockies' record here at Coors Field isn't that great (just 18-13). It's actually a MLB-best 25-13 road record (w/ the pitching staff performing significantly better outside of Coors) that they can credit for being atop the West and having the best overall record in the National League! But last night, the bullpen again proved it cannot be trusted here at home. For the year, Colorado relievers have a 5.45 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at Coors. I don't think you can trust starter Antonio Senzatela much either. He comes in w/ a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and his 9-4 team start record would be a lot worse were it not for some incredible run support this year. It's been more than two months since Senzatela won a game in which his offense did NOT score at least nine runs! 

The Giants got a lousy start from Matt Moore last night, but should be in far better shape here w/ Samardzija on the mound. His presence should counteract the possibility of being w/o both Buster Posey and Eduardo Nunez, both of whom left Thursday's game w/ injuries. But note the Giants' rally came after both departed and they are listed as day to day, so neither may end up missing any time. As for Samardzija, he's actually had some success pitching here at Coors w/ a 3.63 ERA in seven career starts. His ability to avoid walks should prove crucial in this hitter-friendly environment. His KW ratio is the best among all qualified NL starters and going into his last start, he was the first pitcher EVER to have 50+ strikeouts w/ one or no walks over a seven start span. If the Giants can't beat the Rockies w/ Samardzija, when can they? 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. The value of the run line was on display last night when I took the Giants +1.5 against the Rockies (they lost by 1). Check out the analysis on today's game (elsewhere in this report) for more on that. Like the Giants yday, the Reds would certainly appear to be "up against it" in this matchup as the Dodgers come to town. But unlike SF yday, the Reds have two advantages, those being: a) they had Thursday off (Dodgers were in Cleveland) and b) they are at home. Furthermore, as was the case with the play on the Giants yday, revenge is in the air tonight. Just last weekend, Cincy was swept in ugly fashion out at Chavez Ravine. This revenge angle is one of my favorites as beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do. Just as a little "added insurance" though, I'm grabbing the +1.5.

Tonight's opener was set to be a pitching rematch between Asher Wojciechowski and Alex Wood. But Wojciechowski's spot in the rotation was flipped w/ Tim Adleman, who gets the start tonight instead. (Wojciechowski is scheduled for tomorrow). That's fine by me as Adleman's numbers are slightly better anyway. He actually pitched admirably against the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing only three runs (two earned) in 5 IP, and was in line for the win. But, sadly, the bullpen failed him by giving up six runs in the bottom of the eighth (Reds lost 9-7). Nevertheless, that performance by Adleman came on the heels of three consecutive quality outings. One of them saw him throw eight innings of one-hit ball. His last home start saw him beat Adam Wainwright and St. Louis by allowing just one run on three hits in 7 IP.

Something else to consider here is that the Reds have a winning record here at home (19-15). Coming off a terrible 0-6 road trip which saw them get swept not only by the Dodgers, but the Padres as well, they'll be happy to be back in Great American Ballpark, even if it's only for this weekend. They average a very impressive 5.6 rpg here for the year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just a .500 team on the road this year (16-16). They saw their six-game win streak snapped yday afternoon in Cleveland as they allowed 12 runs. Tonight's starter Alex Wood has been very good so far (yet to lose a decision!), but the Reds did get to him for three runs last Saturday (in only five innings), something that no other team had been able to do since May 2nd. While the odds may not suggest the Reds having much of a shot here, I think they do as they're 6-2 this season when playing w/ a day off. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Over Cardinals/Orioles (7:05 ET): We return to our ongoing discussion of playing Interleague totals. Here we have a NL team (St. Louis) visiting an AL team (Baltimore), so the designated hitter is in play, an obvious nod to the respective offenses, particularly the visitors (who normally don't get to use it). Perhaps it's "true to form" (given the leagues they play in), but St. Louis' starter Carlos Martinez has seen his last five starts all go Under the total while Baltimore's Kevin Gausman is 6-1 Over his last seven (3-0 L3). So something will certainly have to "give" in tonight's series opener. With the DH in play, to me, Over is naturally the way to go. Especially at the current number. 

The O's return to Camden Yards certainly "licking their wounds." Yesterday's 5-2 loss to the White Sox was the punctuation mark on a disastrous 1-7 trip. Prior to yday, they had allowed at least six runs in every game, three times allowing 10 or more. Having Gausman on the hill tonight isn't likely reverse the trend. He comes in sporting a 7.63 ERA and 2.348 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers are obviously terrible and sadly over the course of the year, he hasn't been much better (6.49 ERA, 1.904 WHIP). Last time out, he was destroyed by the Yankees, giving up seven runs in 3 1/3 IP w/ an unfathomably bad 0-6 KW ratio. If you recall, last year saw Gausman finish as one of the top money earning starters in all of baseball at +13.7 units. But considering his 3.78 ERA and 1.282 WHIP were "mediocre at best," I can't say I'm surprised to see him regressing in 2017. 

The Cardinals also lost yday, 6-4 at home to the Brewers. That happened to be their fewest number of runs scored in the last six games. Of course, the DH benefits both teams here, so expect Martinez to struggle more than he usually does. In his lone appearance at an AL park this season (Yankee Stadium), he walked EIGHT batters! On the road this season, Martinez's numbers get way worse as he has a 5.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Something else to consider here is that both bullpens are struggling right now. The Cardinals' pen has a 5.02 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season and is primarily responsible for the team having lost 16 games in which it held a multi-run lead. Look for plenty of runs to be scored in this one. 10* Over Cardinals/Orioles

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels played a late one last night, but ended up beating the Yankees 7-5, making it two in a row. Kansas City now comes to town, riding a four-game win streak themselves as their offense surprisingly picked UP despite playing the last two series in National League parks (w/o the DH). The Royals may have swept the Halos back in April, but that was in Kauffman Stadium. I question how much KC will have left in the tank here, playing its thirdconsecutive road series, all of them out here on the West Coast. Four-game win streak or not, there can be no denying that this weekend series represents a drop in class for the Angels compared to their previous opponent and I believe they'll avenge that previous sweep. 

Kansas City has spent much of this season in or near the bottom of the American League Central. The four-game win streak has gotten them out of the basement, but they still have been outscored by 35 runs over the course of the year and are 28th in both runs scored and on base percentage. The fact they've scored seven or more runs in four straight games is definitely surprising, but let's be sure to note that they just beat up on two of the worst teams in all of baseball, the Padres and Giants. Pitching today for the Royals will be relative unknown Matt Strahm, who is making his first big league start. He has made 20 appearances out of the bullpen in 2017 and only has a 4.50 ERA. The last time he started a game - at any level - was last July in Double-A, so this is quite the jump. Strahm is only starting here because Eric Skoglund had been so ineffective.  He will be limited by a pitch count tonight, meaning a Royals' bullpen that has a 5.26 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season, will come into play.

With the Astros way out in front, everyone else is playing for second in the AL West. Currently, the Angels hold that position as they're a game above .500. But they're a much better home team, particularly in this price range. This season, they are 10-4 as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 52-21 the L3 seasons. Overall, they are 20-13 here in LA this season. Starting here will be Ricky Nolasco, who has not won a decision since late April. The team has lost his last eight starts. But while that sounds bad, it's been a case of a pitcher just having hard luck. Only twice in those eight starts has Nolasco allowed more than 3 ER. He gave a quality effort his last time out, at Houston, allowing just two runs in 7 IP. Nolasco did not face KC in the previous series and again, revenge in the key here. 10* LA Angels

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco has had its troubles against Colorado this season, going just 1-6 head to head, including them suffering a three-game sweep in their last visit to Coors Field, back in April. That would help to explain the massive and somewhat shocking discrepancy between these two clubs in the NL West standings as the Rockies, tied for 1st in the division, currently lead SF by 15.5 games. Colorado is returning home here after a seven-game road trip, but is that a good thing? Similar to the Twins over in the American League, the Rockies have managed to be a massive surprise IN SPITE of their home record, which is just 17-13.

The revenge angle (for the prior sweep) superseeds all and is the main reason I'm backing the Giants in this one. However, given the odds, I'm willing to step back and take the added insurance that the +1.5 (runs) provides. Certainly, this is looking like a bit of a lost season by the Bay. The Giants just dropped a pair of games (at home) to the Royals, scoring all of three runs in the process. They've now dropped six of eight overall and have a -73 run differential (4th worst in MLB) for the year. But, the last four times they've been off B2B losses, they've managed to win the next time out. Getting back to the run line, the Giants have played among the most (20) one-run games in all of baseball. Colorado's 9-2 record in such affairs is a big reason why they're where they're at and we're now protected from that.

The Rockies had actually dropped three in a row prior to last night's 5-1 win in Pittsburgh. Their rotation is latent w/ rookies and another will start here, that being Jeff Hoffman, who has been red hot (1.33 ERA, 0.541 WHIP L3 starts) filling in for the injured Tyler Anderson. But this will be just the second time pitching at Coors Field for Hoffman and the first time did not go all that well as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3. Perhaps the hitter-friendly nature of this ballpark will help San Francisco's struggling snap out of its year-long funk. Yesterday did see them undone by stranding 11 runners and going 2 for 10 w/ RISP. It's certainly been a tough year for starter Matt Moore as well, but since the second start of May he's been a lot better. I look for the Giants to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): These two teams have certainly been trending in opposite directions of late w/ the Tigers losing five of their last six, including both home games to Arizona to start the week. Tampa Bay, despite a loss yday in Toronto, has won six of eight. But I'm anticipating a reversal of courses this weekend as one of our favorite angles comes into play. Detroit has revenge here for a prior sweep, which took place down at Tropicana Field back in April. For tonight's opener, this would appear to be an extraordinary price on Justin Verlander, whose struggles this season have mainly been confined to the road. At home, he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in five outings. Tampa Bay has a losing road record and I see them struggling a bit in this second straight series away from home.

On the road, Verlander did pitch relatively well his last time out. In Boston, he allowed just three runs and five hits in 5 IP. He did walk four against just three strikeouts, but it's rare to see him finish w/ a negative KW ratio. Here at home, that ratio is greater than 2:1. While there's been concern locally over his recent stretch, it should be noted that out of Verlander's last five outings, only one could be termed "bad" and it was against the best team in baseball (Houston). He did not face the Rays in the previous series. All-time, he is 8-3 w/ a 3.34 ERA against them.

Verlander will obviously need for offensive support than what the Tigers supplied last night in the loss to Arizona. The D'backs' two run first inning wound up being enough as Detroit could only answer w/ one run the rest of the ballgame. They struck out 11 times and drew only one walk. But the Tigers' hitters should fare far better tonight against the Rays' Alex Cobb, who struggled mightily in his last road start. It came at Seattle on June 3rd and he allowed nine runs and 14 hits in just five innings. Because of that, Cobb now has a 5.02 ER and 1.586 in eight starts away from home this season. While there's been so much focus on the Tigers' struggling bullpen this year, the fact is their numbers at home are better than Rays' relievers on the road. 10* Detroit

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Indians continue to struggle at home. A 7-5 loss to the Dodgers yday dropped them to 14-16 at Progressive Field this season. That goes a long way in explaining why the Tribe, a prohibitive favorite coming into the year in the AL Central, is still looking up at the Twins in the division. As for the Dodgers, they have now ascended to the top of the NL West, which is looking like it will be a very difficult three-horse race. Cleveland may have been in the World Series LY, but this year the Dodgers are looking more destined to participate in the Fall Classic due to their NL-best +92 run differential. But tonight, Corey Kluber will be on the mound and that's the difference maker in this battle of playoff hopefuls.

After spending virtually all of May on the disabled list, Kluber has returned to the Cleveland rotation and delivered B2B outstanding outings, both here at home. The first, against Oakland, saw him deliver six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ 10 K's. Last time out, he did allow 3 ER in six innings, but it was still an easy 7-3 win against the White Sox nonetheless. Opponents are hitting just .214 against Kluber since his return. Making Cleveland's sub-.500 home record all the more head-scratching is their outstanding bullpen performance here. Relievers have posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.040 WHIP at Progressive Field this season. Another shocking thing to observe in handicapping this matchup is Cleveland's 1-8 record vs. the National League this season. Typically, the AL dominates Interleague Play. Note that despite the losing home record, the Indians have outscored visitors here by an average of 0.7 rpg. 

Certainly, you have to be careful fading a team like the Dodgers. But facing Kluber would certainly be an appropriate time to do so. It should be noted that LA is just a .500 team on the road this season as their pitching isn't nearly as dominant as it is at Chavez Ravine. Brandon McCarthy will be the Dodgers' starter tonight and admittedly he's been hot of late. But, true to team form, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in four road starts. The team is 2-2 in those four games. Keep in mind that three of the five wins in the Dodgers' current streak came at home against Cincinnati. That's not all too impressive considering they were -170 or higher in all three games against the Reds. The Indians HAVE to start winning more at home, right? 10* Cleveland

8* Under Royals/Giants (3:45 ET): I had these teams staying Under the total last night, but a surprise offensive output from the DH-less Royals prevented that bet from cashing (8-1 final). Still though, the mentality remains the same and much of what I said in yday's analysis will be rehashed here. Here's an exact quote from yday's analysis: "When handicapping any Interleague matchup and playing the total, it is critical to factor in where the game is being played. Venue will determine whether or not you have an American League team playing w/o the DH or a National League team gaining the spot in its lineup. Here, we have the former situation and considering the Royals and Giants happen already be the two of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball, an Under play seems quite logical." Today, with Johnny Cueto starting for the Giants, playing the Under seems even more logical as it increases the likelihood we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth. Those final three outs can often be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over.

Cueto comes into this afternoon's contest having allowed 3 ER or less in three straight starts and 9 of his 13 overall this season. Here, he'll be facing an offense which ranks 28th in MLB in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, 29th in OBP and 27th in slugging and keep in mind those rankings come with them having the DH in the lineup. Now the Royals have scored a total of 28 runs the L3 games (all wins), all in NL parks, which is highly irregular. But consider last night's game, which was 2-1 in their favor after five innings, saw them explode for six runs in the sixth. A similar outburst is unlikely to be repeated here against Cueto, who has a 2.64 ERA in 30 career IL starts. In fact, "cluster luck" has been huge for KC of late. They've had three innings of 4+ runs on the current trip.

Jason Hammel pitches here for the Royals. He's posted an outstanding 0.944 WHIP his L3 starts and will get to go against an offense which is 29th in runs scored, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OBP and 30th (last) in slugging. Yesterday, the Giants managed only one run on five hits. Hammel also aids us in the sense he's just a career .156 hitter. But remember he too benefits from getting to throw against the opposing pitcher and in this case Cueto is just a .110 lifetime hitter. Last time out, Hammel faced Houston and allowed just one run on four hits (7 IP). He also faced the Giants earlier this year (in Kansas City) and allowed just one run on six hits. 8* Under Royals/Giants

10* Under Royals/Giants (10:15 ET): When handicapping any Interleague matchup and playing the total, it is critical to factor in where the game is being played. Venue will determine whether or not you have an American League team playing w/o the DH or a National League team gaining the spot in its lineup. Here, we have the former situation and considering the Royals and Giants happen already be the two of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball, an Under play seems quite logical, especially considering KC will be w/o the DH. Now the Royals did just complete a three-game series with the Padres (in San Diego) where all three games went Over and they scored 23 times (20 in two wins). But I foresee a drastically different result in tonight's opener.

Kansas City comes in ranked 29th in runs scored and OBP, 27th in team batting average and 26th in slugging. Those numbers are actually UP compared to the first two months of the season. But, they'll continue to play w/o a DH for the next three days and that matters. Consider that one of their two high scoring outputs in San Diego was a result of one massive inning (scored 9 times in the 8th Saturday including a grand slam). So that's not likely to be repeated. Nor is Sunday's eight-run effort which came against amn overmatched pitcher. Tonight, they face Ty Blach, who in five home starts has delivered sensational numbers (1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). The Under is 4-1 in those five starts and while he's coming off a bit of a rough outing at Milwaukee, note the start before that saw him go the distance at Philadelphia (seven-hit shutout!).

The Royals will counter w/ Jason Vargas, who similar to Blach, threw a CG, seven-hit shutout two starts ago. The difference is that Vargas followed it up by allowing just two runs in his last start, which ended up being an impressive win (as +155 ML dogs) over Houston. Vargas has allowed more than 3 ER in only ONE start all season and as a result in the Under is 9-3 when he toes the rubber. Here, he'll face a Giants lineup which is 28th in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. They are 30th (dead last) in slugging. Impressively, Vargas' 2.18 ERA is the second lowest among all American League starters. San Fran may have turned in a season-best 17 hits in its 13-8 win Sunday, but a repeat of that seems highly unlikely here. It would obviously be great if the Giants had the lead going into the ninth, however, so that we could avoid playing the bottom half of the inning. 10* Under Royals/Giants

10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Minnesota's already shaky run differential took another significant hit Monday as they lost to the Mariners by a score of 14-3. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Twins and I'll explain why in a moment. However, given the way I'm going tonight and my overall view of this club, in retrospect I should have just listened to my 'gut.' Now having been outscored by 39 runs this season (4th worst in AL!) has to make you highly skeptical of the fact the Twins still lead the AL Central. The situation that led me to take them yday is again present today, only this time in favor of Seattle. We have two starting pitchers facing off for a second consecutive time. Here, I expect the M's Christian Bergmann to gain revenge against Kyle Gibson and the Twins for a loss suffered last Thursday.

Neither Bergmann nor Gibson are likely destined to anchor their respective rotations anytime soon, but it was a good old fashioned "pitcher's duel" last Thursday up in Seattle, won by the Twins 2-1. The difference ended up being an unearned run allowed by Bergmann that was due to the usually surehanded Robinson Cano making two errors on the same play. If last night is any indication, I expect Bergmann to get a lot more offensive support this time around. Facing Adalberto Mejia for the second time in a week, the Mariners lineup quickly chased him on Monday after scoring nine times in the first four innings. Now, let's see if they can do the same to Gibson, whose performance last week was uncharacteristic to say the least. For the year, Gibson has a 6.52 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He's winless in five home starts w/ even worse numbers (7.25 ERA, 2.10 WHIP), if you can believe it.

While Minnesota's run differential is indicative of a losing club rather than a first place one, Seattle has now outscored its opponents by 11 runs this season despite being a game over .500. There's not nearly the kind of discrepancy there as there is w/ Minnesota, but it's still worth noting. So too is the fact the Twins are just 12-19 at home, making their first place standing all the more shocking. Bergmann had one really bad start this year, but it came at an NL park against maybe the best offense in the game (Washington). Other than that, he's allowed 3 ER or less every time out and his L3 starts have produced a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Facing a team that's given up a total of 27 runs its last two games, I'm taking the pitcher who has revenge yet again. 10* Seattle

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Without question, Colorado has been one of the "feel good stories" this year in MLB. On pace for the best first half to any season in franchise history (began in 1993), they currently lead the NL West, which has turned into a brutal three-horse race between them, the Dodgers and D'backs. Keep in mind the Rockies are 1 of 2 franchises NEVER to have won a division title (Marlins). They took a seven-game win streak into Sunday, but failed to sweep the Cubs in Wrigley. Then, they walked into an emotional PNC Park last night as Pirates' starter Jameson Taillon returned from cancer treatment to pitch five scoreless innings. Quietly, Pittsburgh has now won three straight and I like them to send the Rockies to a third straight loss on Tuesday.

Unlike Colorado, Pittsburgh has been a pretty big disappointment in 2017, no longer resembling the club that made the playoffs three consecutive seasons (2013-15). Even after the three consecutive victories, the Bucs still currently reside in last place in the NL Central. One of the bigger reasons for the disappointing start this season has been starter Gerrit Cole, who has REALLY struggled of late w/ a 10.73 ERA his L4 turns. But I believe tonight represents a great "buy low" situation on Cole, who is a much better pitcher than what he's shown of late. Consider that before these last four starts, he'd turned in eight consecutive quality ones. The Rockies may be a NL-best 24-12 on the road this year, but one of the major reasons for skepticism is they've never been able to hit well outside of the friendly environment that Coors Field provides. They are averaging 4.8 rpg on the road this year, but yday saw them score only twice.

With four rookies in the starting rotation, sustainability there is another concern for Bud Black's club. He'll go w/ Tyler Chatwood tonight. Chatwood has had the exact opposite results of Cole recently, winning his last three decisions. But mixed in there was a one bad outing against Seattle (who had no DH) where he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 IP. Chatwood does have an excellent WHIP (0.971) on the road this year, but overall his numbers aren't much different than Cole's. After that seven-game win streak, I believe Colorado is set to "give a little more back." 8* Pittsburgh

8* Texas (8:10 ET): Like most teams around the league, the Rangers have had major trouble with the Astros in 2017. The 44-20 Astros are 6-1 head to head in this AL West rivalry this year, including a three-game sweep down in Arlington last month. So, as visitors this time, the Rangers certainly seem to be "up against it this week." However, having Yu Darvish on the mound Monday probably represents their best shot at taking a game and getting a pitcher of that caliber, at this price, is too good to pass up. Darvish is well overdue for a win here considering an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.091 WHIP. This will certainly be a better matchup for Darvish than when he faced Dallas Keuchel last month. Houston has proven itself "mortal" of late by dropping four of six since an 11-game win streak.

The Astros have actually failed to win each of the last two series, first having to settle for a split at KC, then dropping two of three (here at home) to the Angels. Yesterday saw a 6-3 lead turn into a 12-6 loss. The number of runs allowed by Houston pitching has dramatically increased since the 11-game win streak ended (6.0 rpg during 2-4 stretch). This can be directly tied to three starters being on the DL. One of them, Joe Musgrove, makes his return to the mound Monday. Prior to the stint on the DL, Musgrove has turned in his best outing of the season by tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. But one of his worst outings of the year came here at home against Texas where he allowed five runs in just four innings. That also happens to be the lone time the Astros lost to the Rangers here in 2017. 

You'll recall that Texas had its own impressive win streak this year, that of 10 games. However, what they did over the weekend might be just as impressive. That would be go to D.C. and sweep the Nationals. In between the 10-game win streak and this past weekend's sweep, the club was rather "so-so" and like I said Darvish has not won a decision in awhile. But before losing each of the L3 turns, the Rangers had won six straight Darvish starts. His numbers (3.07 ERA, 1.134 WHIP) remain pretty solid, so I'd like to reiterate what a good value this is getting the better starting pitcher at "plus money." The Rangers have outscored opponents this season. 8* Texas

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox are yet another AL Central team that finally gets to return to the friendly confines of home this week. They are coming off an unsuccessful road trip, one that saw them finish 2-7 after dropping two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. However, their opponents arrive on the South Side in far worse shape. The Orioles were absolutely bludgeoned this past weekend in the Bronx, losing all three games to the Yankees by a combined score of 38-8! Buck Showalter has certainly "proven me wrong" before by getting inferior clubs to the postseason, but this year's fast start appears to be a mirage now that the O's run differential is -40 (despite being a game over .500!). That's the third worst run differential in the A.L. 

Chicago, who was not expected to be a contender in any way, shape or form this year, also got off to a surprisingly decent start. It came on the back of their pitching, which was really surprising given the trading away of Chris Sale in the offseason. For much of the first two months of the season, the White Sox ranked right near the top of the American League for fewest number of runs allowed. I did play against them Sunday, but that was on the road against a far superior opponent. Baltimore is having major problems on the road this year as their record is just 10-20 after suffering the sweep over the weekend. Last month at Camden Yards, the O's swept the White Sox, which of course sets up one of my favorite handicapping angles - that being taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. 

Mike Pelfrey seemingly won't ever get a ton of respect from the marketplace, but the Sox starter has pitched relatively well this season despite a 3-6 team start record. His L4 starts have seen him allow a .198 batting average and .261 OBP. At home, he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for the season. He did not pitch at Camden Yards in the series last month. Wade Miley did, just barely, for the Orioles. Lasting only two-thirds of an inning, he had to be pulled after getting hit by B2B line drives. He'd already given up three hits while getting just two outs. While injury was the cause of that outing getting cut short, there was no excuse his last time out as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings and gave up four runs on eight hits. It was the third time in five starts he allowed at least four runs when going five innings or less. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (8:10): Even though they currently lead the AL Central, the Twins are a team that simply hasn't gained much respect w/ me or the marketplace in general. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact they are -28 in run differential despite being five games over .500. They lost yday, 13-8 to the Giants, but all that did was prevent them from pulling off a three-game sweep. Tonight, they happen to fall into one of my favorite handicapping situations, that being taking a pitcher w/ "immediate revenge" (i.e. facing the same pitcher he lost to in his most recent start). Adalberto Mejia and the Twins lost to Yovani Gallardo and the Mariners back on June 7th, but that was in Seattle where the M's are a solid 20-13 on the year. On the road, they're 11-20. 

Gallardo is not exactly having a stellar 2017 nor did he pitch well his last time out against the Twins. In fact, he allowed five runs for a second consecutive start. A 7.63 ERA and 1.957 WHIP his L3 starts doesn't even include his disastrous showing on 5.20 against the White Sox where he allowed 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Gallardo was bailed out by the offense last week against the Twins, but he should not anticipate such support this time around as the Mariners' offense has been held to four runs or fewer each of the last four games and was shut out (6th time this year) on Sunday. The team averages just 4.1 rpg on the road this year while allowing 5.1 rpg. 

Given the Twins' surprisingly good start (team lost over 100 games LY!), their overall lack of success at home is certainly a bit head-scratching. They're only 12-18 at Target Field so far, a record I expect to regress to the mean somewhat on this upcoming 11-game home stand (includes doubleheader Saturday vs. Cleveland). This will be their first home game in June following a 10-game West Coast swing that saw them finish 6-4 overall. Mejia actually pitched well in Seattle last week, giving up only two hits (in five innings), but unfortunately they were both home runs. He's been a solid starter for this team, going at least five innings each of his last four starts while posting a 3.52 ERA. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. I like his prospects for revenge Monday night. 8* Minnesota

8* Under Tigers/Red Sox (8:05 ET): The total has (curiously) risen to 11 (a key number when betting MLB totals) and thus I'm going to respond accordingly w/ an Under play. We have a battle of lefties tonight as the Tigers and Red Sox wrap up a three-game set which has seen the home team take the first two games. Friday's opener (5-3 Boston win) was far more competitive than Saturday was (11-3), although it should be pointed out that Boston did the vast majority of its damage last night in the latter innings (scored a total of eight times in the seventh & eighth innings) against Detroit's much maligned bullpen. That late surge is likely what's responsible for tonight's game having the highest O/U line of the series and I think has created some corresponding value.

Pitching tonight for the Red Sox will be Drew Pomeranz, who come in flashing fine form. He's riding a career-best three-game win streak and has a 2.00 ERA during that time. The team is also 5-1 this year w/ him on the mound at Fenway. Those L3 starts have seen him allow a total of just five runs in 18 IP w/ an outstanding 26-3 KW ratio. For the year, Pomeranz has actually allowed 2 ER or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts! So this recent surge is actually nothing new. The fact he's coming off a career-high 123-pitch outing and hasn't been going that deep into games is mitigated by the fact Boston has an outstanding bullpen, led by closer Craig Kimbrel. Also, the Tigers have scored three or four runs in five straight ball games. 

Daniel Norris will be the southpaw going here for the Tigers. Likewise, he wasn't all that efficient his last time out, but he still got away w/ allowing 3 ER or fewer for the fourth time in his last five starts. Tonight will be his first career start at Fenway. Fortunate for him is that the Red Sox offense isn't nearly as prolific as it was last season and their home games are averaging only 8.7 runs per game so far this season. That's well below the total for tonight's game. The Over is 4-1 in Norris' five road starts this year, but that's w/ him getting a lot of run support that likely won't be present here. In fact, the Tigers have scored 6+ runs in four of those five starts, something that I just do not feel will be the case this evening. 8* Under Tigers/Red Sox

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener (behind Corey Kluber), the Tribe failed to get the job done Saturday, losing to the White Sox by a score of 5-3. There's really no sugarcoating that it's been a pretty disappointing first two months to the season for the defending AL Champs, but the bottom line is the Central remains a very winnable division and they do currently sport the best YTD run differential (+13) among the group. In fact, they are the ONLY team in the division that can claim to have outscored opponents over the course of the season. Rival Chicago got off to a surprisingly decent start, but - yday aside - they've predictably regressed. I've said it before, but it really stunned me that this team was so proficient on the runs allowed side of the ledger in the early going. But, on paper, the starting rotation remains very week, which is what you'd expect from a team in the midst of a rebuild. 

When Chris Sale was dealt to Boston in the offseason, it basically was a sign that the White Sox were waving the proverbial white flag on 2017. Jose Quintana became the de facto ace and simply put, the shoes have proven too big to fill. Coming into Sunday's start, Quintana is sporting a 5.30 ERA and 1.407 WHIP. The team did win as a sizable ML underdog (+165) his last time out, against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer, as the lefty allowed just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 IP. But he did walk four batters. That also came after B2B disastrous outings where he allowed a total of 15 runs in just seven combined innings. He allowed four HR's during that stretch. Overall, in six starts since May 2nd, Quintana is winless w/ a 6.68 ERA.

Cleveland got a bad start from Josh Tomlin Saturday as he allowed three first-inning runs and it was essentially "over from there" as Chicago outhit the Indians 14-5. I expect far better from Carlos Carrasco today. Not only does Carrasco have a 0.962 WHIP for the season (4th in A.L.), but in two starts so far against the White Sox, he's allowed just 1 run in 15 IP. He's off a bit of a rough showing, but will also be working on seven days' rest here. Overall, the Indians have won 8 of his 11 starts this year. I remain stunned that the Tribe have a losing record at home so far, but expect that to be soon rectified. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): After crushing Oakland in Friday's opener, the Rays had to settle for a split of Saturday's doubleheader, losing the second game after taking the first in extra innings. The loss in the second half of the twin bill snapped a four-game win streak for the Rays, who have now gotten over .500. They'll have their ace, Chris Archer, on the hill Sunday and will certainly need him to be at his best after the bullpen was called into duty early in Game 2 yday when starting Matt Andriese had to be lifted in the 1st inning due to a groin injury. Thankfully, Archer comes in fine form and the A's have not only the worst road record in the American League (9-22), but also the worst run differential (-64) as well.

Archer was the quintessential "hard luck loser" his last time out as he gave up just two runs and five hits in 7 IP to go w/ 11 K's, yet he received little in the way of run support and the Rays lost 4-2 to the White Sox. In five of his last seven starts, Archer has struck out 11+ batters, which is very impressive. Oakland's lineup is one that certainly "not afraid" to go down swinging as they've now struck out double digit times in four of the past five ballgames. Six of Archer's last eight starts have been quality. He's posted a 0.923 WHIP in the last three and a 41-5 KW ratio in his last four. That makes him certainly due for some better results than the current 7-6 team start record, especially in light of LY's disappointing returns. 

On the other side of the spectrum, Oakland's Jesse Hahn comes in w/ a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 turns. That's despite a shockingly good performance his last time out where all he gave up was an unearned run in a 4-1 over Toronto. But that came at home. As referenced above, the A's are NOT a good road team while TB is a strong home team. Not only do the Rays own a 20-15 WL record at Tropicana Field, they are outscoring opponents here by nearly a full run per game. Visiting teams (going into yday) were batting just .229 for the season at the Trop. The A's bullpen is also terrible (5.90 ERA) and for what it's worth the team has won just once on a Sunday all season. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona (10:10 ET): It was a wild 8-6 game last night the saw the D'backs' 9-game win streak here at Chase Field come to an end. Both teams scored three times in the first frame and what was interesting is that three of the four innings the Brew Crew scored, Arizona would answer w/ an identical number of runs in the bottom half. Therefore, the difference was a two-run sixth by the visitors. Both of these teams would qualify as being among MLB's most pleasant surprises in 2017, but I remain far more skeptical of the Brewers as not only do they have an inferior YTD run differential, but I also can't see their current win percentage on the road being maintained. Arizona is a MLB-best 24-9 at home this year and outscoring foes by 2.4 runs per game here.

No one expected the Brew Crew to be ahead of the Cubs at this juncture of the season, let alone in first place in the National League Central. Yet, that's "where we are" entering today's action. Going into yday, the club was coming off a 3-3 homestand. They have a losing record (9-11) over their last 20 games overall and also have a losing home record (17-19) this year. Therefore, it's the 16-10 road record that's clearly keeping them "afloat." But how long will it last? They still project as a .500 team at best and several key pieces currently find themselves on the DL. Jonathan Villar (2B) is the latest to join the list after leaving last night's game w/ a back injury. Third baseman Travis Shaw is already on the family emergency list and Ryan Braun remains out as well. As detailed above, Chase Field is difficult enough to win at when the visitor is at full strength.

Arizona is in a vicious three-battle in the NL West w/ Colorado and the Dodgers. Though the D'backs are currently third in their own division, they are top five in all of MLB in run differential (+70). That's certainly encouraging. So too has been the work of tonight's starter Zack Godley, who is working on a streak of five straight quality outings. In three home starts this year, Godley has a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. Two starts ago, he faced this Milwaukee team (on the road) and threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball. He's working on extended rest here as this will be his first start of June. He'll again work opposite of Junior Guerra, who has had a bit of hard luck in '17, but then again his WHIP is actually higher than his ERA over the L3 starts, something you don't see very often. That's due to nine walks. No team in baseball is more prolific offensively in its home park than is Arizona, so this is a tough assignment here for Guerra. 8* Arizona

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Where both of these teams currently reside in the standings has to be considered a major surprise, at least when compared to preseason projections. Minnesota (31-26) is your surprise leader in the AL Central, this despite having actually been outscored by 24 runs so far. Meanwhile, the Giants are a perennial playoff contender in the Senior Circuit, but this is an "odd year" (World Series wins came in 2010, '12 and '14) and right now they are battling lowly San Diego just to stay out of the cellar in the NL West. The surprises continued yday as the Twins came to town and shut the Giants out, 4-0, w/ Ervin Santana doing virtually all the damage - both on the mound and at the plate. Not only did the Twins' early season Cy Young contender toss a four-hit shutout, but he also doubled home three of the runs his team would score for the game. 

Jose Berrios has emerged as the Twins #2 man in the rotation, but there have been recent signs of regression. Such as him allowing three home runs to the Angels back on 5.24 or allowing four runs in just five inning to Houston on 5.30. He was a bit better his last time out (June 4th), but that was against the Mike Trout-less Angels. Granted, the Giants' lineup has generally lacked punch this year. But they did score nine runs Thursday and have scored at least seven in four of the last eight games. Something remarkable about Minnesota being in first place still is the fact they allowed the highest number of runs per game in all of baseball during the month of May. A 19-8 road record also "reeks" of likely regression as well. In addition to have suspect depth in the starting rotation, the Twins' bullpen sports a 5.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 

Provided the Giants' offense can bounce back this afternoon, they should be in good shape w/ Jeff Samardzija on the hill. Samardzija has posted a remarkable 59-1 KW ratio going back to May 1. He's off one of his best outings of 2017 as he held Milwaukee to just two runs (one earned) in 7 2/3 IP while striking out 10 batters. A former AL pitcher, Samardzija has faced the Twins several times before and is 4-1 all-time against them. As rough as things have been for SF so far, my skepticism over Minnesota outweighs that and I'll concluded by noting the Twins have a losing record in day games to due to giving up an average of 6.0 rpg. I'll call for the Giants to bounce back from last night's debacle. 8* San Francisco

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners and Blue Jays each entered 2017 w/ playoff aspirations, but poor starts on both sides quickly derailed those thoughts. Toronto still resides in last place in the AL East, though it is Seattle that faces a far greater uphill climb given that they are in the same division (AL West) as the Astros and face a 13-game deficit. So at this point, it's fair to say that the Wild Card would be their only point of entry for the playoffs. But despite a myriad of injuries, the M's certainly aren't giving up. In fact, they had a five-game win streak (season-best) snapped yday, but only due to a two critical errors by Robinson Cano on the same play (lost 2-1 to Minnesota). Overall though, the fact remains that Seattle has won 9 of 11 and this is a big time revenge series for them as they were swept (in a four-game series) out in Toronto last month. If you're a regular of mine, then you know how I feel about that. If not, know that taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) is one of my favorite angles in MLB betting. 

Seattle was a season-worst eight games below .500 following a loss to Boston on 5.27. Since then, they've gone 9-2, virtually all of the wins coming here at Safeco Field. They've won series against Colorado and Minnesota, both of whom are division leaders, plus they swept Tampa Bay. They've outscored their opponents 76-32 during this time, giving them a positive run differential for the year. Important here is that tonight's starter, Sam Gaviglio, did not get a start in the series in Toronto where the M's were swept. He did work two innings of relief and allowed one run in what was his big league debut. So far, Gaviglio has been a very effective starter here at home, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP. Last time out may have been his most effective start to date as he allowed just four hits to Tampa Bay w/ the lone run conceded via a solo home run. He also finished w/ a season-best 6-0 KW ratio. 

Toronto is also inching its way back to the Mendoza Line (i.e. .500). But after a strong conclusion to May, they've sputtered some here in June, dropping four of seven. They do enjoy the benefit of having yday off, but I'm not sure that's enough to cure an offense which has scored three runs or fewer in five of those seven games this month. On the mound, they go w/ Joe Biagini, who did throw five shutout innings against the Mariners last month. But that was at home and on the road, Biagini's ERA is 5.84. His job will be made far tougher if Nelson Cruz (calf) does indeed return to the Seattle lineup. 10* Seattle

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): On May 31st, the Cardinals did something that no other team had been able to do over the previous week and that was beat the Dodgers. They did it again on June 1st. Then, the bottom dropped out. Seven straight losses have this once proud organization well below .500. Getting swept by the Cubs (in Wrigley) last weekend was one thing, but getting swept by Cincinnati is pretty embarrassing. It should be noted, however, that the entirety of the losing streak has taken place on the road. Now they finally get to return home to the friendly confines of Busch Stadium where they'll host the team w/ the worst overall record in baseball, the Phillies. I feel a bounce back is "in the Cards" (pun intended!) this weekend and will go w/ St. Louis in tonight's opener.

Unlike the Cards, Philly actually got off to a strong start in June, producing a four game win streak at one point. But that was only after a dreadful month of May (went 6-22) and the win streak has since ended. They come into tonight off B2B losses in Atlanta, both times scoring only one run. They're at a slight disadvantage here in the sense that they didn't get out of Atlanta until late while St. Louis wrapped up the series at Cincinnati in the afternoon. A league-worst 9-23 road record certainly does the Phils no favors here either.

While the Redbirds are coming off their first 0-7 road trip in a decade, note that they actually held multiple run leads in five of the seven games. On paper, we have a pretty terrible pitching matchup tonight w/ two struggling starters. But while Philly's rotation has received just 19 quality starts all year (29th), St. Louis' rotation spent much of the year in the top 10. Jeremy Hellickson goes for Philly here and not only does he have a lousy 6.75 ERA his L7 starts overall, his career ERA vs. St. Louis is 5.03. He's coming off a 103-pitch outing to boot. Starting opposite him will be Michael Wacha, who is trying to erase a string a poor outings himself. But remember his first seven starts of the year brought six quality starts. He's better than what he's shown recently and this is a prime opportunity for he - and his team - to bounce back. 8* St. Louis

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates were somewhat humiliated last night, losing at home to the Marlins, 7-1. Three consecutive playoff appearances (2013-15) now seem like a somewhat "distant memory" for a club that regressed to 78 wins a year ago and now finds itself residing in last place in the National League Central (26-34). Of course, little was expected of the Marlins this year in the wake of the Jose Fernandez tragedy. Things got off to a pretty awful start for them, but they've treaded water since, including wins in five of the last seven games. Two of those wins have come w/ Edinson Volquez on the hill. One was a no-hitter on 6.3 vs. Arizona while the other took place last night here at PNC Park. There's obviously no Volquez tonight then and thus I'm willing to bet Miami falters. 

Vance Worley will instead be the starter for the visitors tonight. In his first three starts of 2017, things have not gone well for Mr. Worley. A former Pirate, Worley is still winless this season and a 7.10 ERA seems to indicate he deserves to be. The only game Miami lost in the series w/ Arizona came when Worley was on the mound as he allowed five runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He's yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start, which isn't a good sign when your bullpen has a 5.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road. The Pirates offense had been putting up some big numbers prior to yday, including two games w/ double digit runs against the Mets last weekend. They followed that up w/ a pair of heartbreaking, extra-inning losses in Baltimore, both times blowing a lead in the bottom of the ninth. So, yday aside, recent results for the Bucs are a tad misleading. 

Tyler Glasnow has been one of several disappointments in Pittsburgh this season. The 23-year old right-hander was highly touted coming into 2017, but has failed to deliver, instead offering up a 6.97 ERA and 1.868 WHIP. His walk rate is also among the worst in all of MLB. He allowed a career-worst 3 HR's his last time out, but prior to that had allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts, so he had been showing signs of breaking out. Though the Marlins have totaled 13 runs in the L2 games, I'm not convinced that's the start of any kind of trend as the previous two games saw them total only three. When a home team gets embarrassed the way the Bucs did last night, pride usually kicks in and a bounce back - more often than not - usually takes place. 10* Pittsburgh

6* Houston (8:15 ET): What was an 11-game win streak for the Astros has come to a screeching halt here in KC as they've dropped two in a row, including yday when they had to scratch Dallas Keuchel's scheduled start. As disappointing a result as that 7-5 decision was, the likelihood that the last place Royals can defeat Lance McCullers, Jr seems minimal to me. He and Keuchel form possibly the most potent front end of any starting rotation in baseball and that's a big reason why Houston has gotten off to such a great start. They're 42-18 w/ a +102 run differential and that includes a 10-2 mark w/ McCullers pitching as they've outscored opponents 28-12 his L5 starts alone. In four of his six starts in May, he didn't even give up a single run! 

Kansas City is of course the lowest scoring offense in all of the American League. They've scored only 213 runs or 34 fewer than the second lowest scoring AL club. So, theoretically, this is a tailor-made matchup for the Astros, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. McCullers wasn't even at his best his last time out, allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings, but that was against an opponent (Texas) that typically gives him trouble. It was just his third non-quality start of 2017. Back in early April, he dominated this Royals lineup, allowing just three runs in 7 IP. He finished w/ 10 K's and didn't walk anybody. It should be noted that at no point this season has Houston lost both legs of the B2B starts from Keuchel and McCullers.

Kansas City's offense has certainly picked up in the last two games (16 runs scored), but I wouldn't bet on that lasting too long. As mentioned earlier, they struggled against McCullers back in April. On the other side of the ledger, their starter Jason Hammel has experienced the exact opposite results of McCullers. Hammel comes in w/ a 2-9 TSR, 5.93 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. Both wins came against the same opponent, Cleveland. He did not pitch in the earlier series w/ the Astros, but I expect him to struggle based on the fact opponents are hitting .295 off him. He would have allowed even more runs if not for abnormal luck when runners are in scoring position. The Astros come in ranked #1 in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! 6* Houston

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Starter Jake Odorizzi was originally slated to toe the rubber yday, but even w/o him the Rays were able to down the White Sox by a score of 3-1. That sets up a rubber match tonight w/ Odorizzi pitching and I feel the home side (TB) is poised to take this series. Chicago is a team that has fallen into last place in the AL Central after a suprising start led by their even more surprising pitching. For awhile, they were among the AL leaders in the runs allowed side of the ledger. But that's started to shift, which is predictable given that the departure of Chris Sale in the offseason signaled a clear rebuild on the South Side of Chicago. Derek Holland pitches tonight's finale, bringing w/ him a 5.51 ERA and 1.776 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 

The Rays came into this series off a humbling sweep in Seattle. But they've proven to be a far better team here at Tropicana Field where they're 17-14 and outscoring opponents by 0.8 rpg. Meanwhile, the White Sox are now a lousy 13-21 on the road. They'd lost five in a row, three of them in Detroit, prior to this series commencing. Both starters here come off poor showings (each allowed 8 runs), but the difference is five of the runs charged to Odorizzi were unearned. With Odorizzi's scheduled start pushed back a day, they now come in w/ equal rest. Holland lasted only 2 1/3 innings his last time out and gave up three home runs, which certainly is not good. Nor is his 4.66 career ERA vs. the Rays.

In addition to working on an extra day of rest here, another boost for Odorizzi is pitching at home. In five Tropicana Field starts this year, he has an 2.90 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. Prior to the poor showing last week in Seattle, Odorizzi had allowed 2 ER or less in six of his seven previous starts. The White Sox hitting, or lack there of, has been an issue for them all season w/ them ranking 21st in runs scored and 24th in slugging and OBP. Look for Odorizzi to exploit that. Chicago has won just two of its last eight visits to Tropicana Field. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Orioles/Nationals (7:05 ET): Once again, we turn to the discussion of venue when it comes to handicapping totals in these Interleague matchups. Venue is key because it determines whether or not the designated hitter will be in play. Tuesday's Over play (Mets/Rangerss) was the latest in a series of winners for me at an AL park where an already high-scoring NL club got to benefit from the usage of the DH. Here, we find the AL team (Baltimore) losing the DH spot and that means trouble offensively. American League pitchers, not used to coming up to the plate regularly, are essentially "easy outs." Perhaps neither starting pitcher is an "ace" in any sense of the word, but it's a great number and there's a good chance the Nats won't be coming up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

It should be noted that this is a make-up game. Last month, the Beltway rivals were scheduled for a four-game set, two in each city. All three ended up pretty high scoring w/ 9+ runs scored. The game here in D.C. was actually the highest scoring of the bunch (13 runs), but I wouldn't expect a repeat of tha tonight. Washington comes off a three-game set at Chavez Ravine (Dodger Stadium) where only 12 runs - total - were scored. Obviously, that's a park w/ a reputation for run suppression, but even here in D.C, the average total number of runs scored is "just" 9.2 per game. Baltimore just went Over in both games vs. NL club Pittsburgh, but those games were at Camden Yards. Yesterday's result was a bit misleading in the sense that the O's scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth and then won on a three-run walkoff HR in the 11th. It was a 6-2 game heading into the eighth. 

This is a battle of #5 starters as Alec Asher battles Joe Ross. Asher, the Orioles starter, is off perhaps his best start as he went 6 1/3 innings against Boston and allowed just two runs and three hits. It was the third time in four starts he's allowed 3 ER or fewer. He pitched in an NL park twice last season and he allowed just four runs total, all of them unearned. His L3 starts in NL parks have resulted in just 5 runs allowed in 18 IP. Joe Ross goes for the Nationals and he's looking to bounce back from B2B disappointing outings. It should be noted though that his last quality start came on 5.23 when another AL team (Seattle) came calling to the Nation's Capital and he would allow only one run on five hits over eight innings. While Baltimore's offense obviously won't be as strong as usual, note Washington's has also been in decline over the last month. The last two days saw them held to three runs and nine hits. 10* Under Orioles/Nationals

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Make it 0-5 for the Braves this year against the Phillies. The home team has been killing me in this series as I've been on them each of the last two days. But I'll stick w/ them again tonight as I maintain the handicap on this series is accurate. Historically, I've had great success taking a team that has revenge for a prior sweep of three or more games, which is what happened to Atlanta in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. With these two clubs, it's not as if one could say the Phillies are significantly better, in fact, most metrics would indicate they are the inferior side. They're still not too far removed from an absolutely dreadful month of May (6-22) and still are just 9-21 on the road this season. Their current four-game win streak is not their longest of the year (they did win 5 straight in late April), but note that outside of those two streaks, the team's overall record is just 12-35! 

Starting today for the Phils is Jerad Eickhoff. In addition to have an odd spelling for his first name, Eickhoff has the dubious distinction of being winless in 11 starts this season (0-6). His team start record is 2-9 and his ERA (5.28) and WHIP (1.575) indicate that there's no bad luck there. In his last start, a 10-0 loss to the lousy Giants, he allowed five runs in 2 2/3 IP. He also issued a career-high five walks. Something else to consider is that yday's game marked the 1st time all season that a Phillies starter lasted eight innings. It's not like the bullpen is very good either. Overall, Philly's YTD run differential (-55) remains fourth worst in baseball, even after factoring in the current win streak. 

Atlanta at least did better yday than Monday where they fell into a huge 9-0 hole early. Last night actually saw them score first, but a first inning run would also be their last. Offense has been hard to come by in this series as they continue to struggle at home. But against Eickhoff, I expect their bats to resemble the kind of performance we saw Sunday when they put 13 runs on the board against Cincinnati. Starting tonight will be Mike Foltynewicz, who is off a stellar outing last Friday. It was in Cincinnati and he threw seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters. Sadly, the Braves still lost that game, 3-2. So they definitely "owe" Foltynewicz one today. Note that in four of his past five starts, Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less. The Phillies are not strong offensively on the road (just 3.9 rpg) and this madness that is the Braves' losing streak to them must end. 10* Atlanta

10* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Needless to say, the Cardinals have not had a good start to June. Well, they did beat the Dodgers last Thursday (1st of the month). But since that win, they've lost five straight, first getting swept by the Cubs, then dropping the first two games of this series w/ Cincinnati. Last night may have marked the official "low point" as they lost 13-1 w/ the Reds' Scooter Gennett turning in one of the greatest single-game performances by a MLB player - EVER - as he went 5 for 5 at the plate w/ 4 home runs and 10 RBI's. Consider though that Gennett was mired in an 0 for 19 slump heading into Monday's opener. Needless to say, he'll regress sharply here and so to should the entire team as I just can't fathom St. Louis dropping a third straight game to their division rival. 

Believe it or not, but Cincy actually comes into this game ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central standings (by one-half game). Few, if any, would have predicted that to be the case 55+ games into the season. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that the Redbirds were a top the division. The current losing streak has changed that, but it's notable that they still have the honor of having allowed the fewest number of runs among all NL Central teams. Believe it or not, they've actually allowed the third fewest in the entire Senior Circuit (only Dodgers and D'backs ahead of them). Tonight, they'll have Lance Lynn on the bump. While Lynn has not won a decision since May 5th, don't blame him for that. He's posted a 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts despite those all ending up as team losses. In 8 of his 11 starts this season, Lynn has allowed 2 ER or fewer and he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.068 WHIP for the year, very good numbers. 

I give Lynn a significant edge over his counterpart here, the aging Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo may have the better team start record of the two pitchers (6-5 vs. 5-6), but that is totally misleading as his ERA (6.24) and WHIP (1.439) are both significantly higher. Arroyo has actually been rather serviceable his L2 outings, but those came against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two very bad teams. One thing to still be concerned about w/ him is low strikeout totals. He hasn't recorded more than four in any of his last seven starts. His career numbers against St. Louis are terrible, especially in recent years as he's 0-6 w/ a 6.34 ERA his L9. Compare that to Lynn, who is 9-4 w/ a 3.22 ERA all-time vs. the Reds. Lynn is also third in the entire NL w/ opponents batting just .192 against him. I just don't buy the Reds, projected to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball at the start of the year, to continue winning. Nor can I see the Cards continuing to lose like this. 10* St. Louis

8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays were beaten last night, 4-2 here in Oakland, but I anticipate them bouncing back here w/ Marco Estrada on the bump. Opposing him will be Jesse Hahn, who is making his retun after a stint on the DL. It's not like the A's are any kind of formidable opponent. While it's true that this is a battle of last place teams, Toronto in the AL East and Oakland in the West, the A's have a worse record and far worse run differential (-60 to -8). Going into yday, the A's had dropped seven of nine and they haven't beaten the same opponent in consecutive days since a somewhat shocking sweep of the Red Sox back in mid-May. This is a good time to fade them.

Toronto dug itself a pretty big early hole this season, but they're already within two games of .500, so by no means are they "out of it." In fact, as good as the Yankees have been so far, the Jays trail them by only six games. On the other hand, you have Oakland, who is 16.5 games off the pace in the AL West. One player - Ryan Healy - accounted for all of the A's offensive production last night. That's something that simply cannot be counted upon again. The team was off B2B 10-run performances against Washington over the weekend, but note that for the year they rank 24th or lower in runs scored, team batting average and slugging. That should make life easy for Estrada, who is looking to rebound from a disastrous start in Yankee Stadium last week. Considering that in the two starts prior he allowed just 2 ER total (1 each time) and had a 20-2 KW ratio, the chances of a bounce back performance from Estrada are high.

As for Hahn, he's struggled mightily at home this year w/ a 6.94 ERA and 1.971 WHIP in three starts. Most pitchers, save for the great ones (which Hahn is not), tend to struggle in their first start post-DL. Coming off a triceps injury, expect the club to be cautious w/ him as there are also concerns over Hahn's velocity. It's not like Oakland's bullpen is very good either. I think a pretty clear cut case could be made that the A's are the worst team in the American League, so fading them at this price seems like a strong value. 8* Toronto

10* Over Mets/Rangers (8:05 ET): We now return to a discussion of betting Interleague totals. As I often stress in these situations, venue matters as depending whether or not the game is contested at an AL or NL park, you either have a DH or don't. In this case, the NL team (New York) benefits from the addition of the designated hitter to its lineup by virtue of playing in the NL park. The DH is an advantage bettors hardly even need when it comes to betting the Mets Over on the road. Already, they are the #1 Over team in all of baseball (34-13-8) - by a wide margin. On average, their road games are - by far - the highest scoring in the league at 12.2 rpg. So getting an additional hitter in the lineup is merely "the icing on the cake" here as this matchup should fly Over the total.

Now, in addition to scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road this year, Mets' pitching is allowing the exact same number per game. Even in their most recent series, which was at home, they twice allowed 11+ runs to the Pirates and that's not a strong offensive ballclub. Having Jacob deGrom on the mound tonight may help some, but then again he was charged w/ seven runs in four innings his last time out (against Milwaukee). Five of deGrom's six road starts have gone Over the total this year and overall he has an ERA that's now approaching 4.00. Also remember that the Mets' bullpen has been atrocious this year, particularly on the road where they've posted a 6.84 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Texas, despite getting swept over the weekend by Houston, still comes in averaging a solid 5.1 rpg at home this year. 

The Rangers have given up at least five runs in six consecutive contests, allowing seven or more in four of those games. Tonight marks the first start of the year for Dillon Gee, who is a former Met. I expect the Mets' offense, which is typically prolific on the road, to fare well against their old teammate. The extra hitter in the lineup obviously helps and the wind blowing out tonight could potentially lead to a few well hit balls turning into home runs. deGrom has allowed multiple HR's four times this year and has given up six total in his last five starts. 10* Over Mets/Rangers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Braves were embarrassed last night, losing to the Phillies 11-4 here at Sun Trust Park. The loss drops them to 0-4 head to head in this NL East rivalry. That seems odd considering you wouldn't necessarily perceive one club as being demonstrably better than the other and if you did, it certainly wouldn't be Philly. Despite a relatively modest three-game win streak, the Phils still have the worst record in all of baseball (20-35) and have been outscored by 59 runs over the course of the season. Taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep remains one of my favorite angles in betting MLB, so w/ the pitching edge tonight, I'm again backing Atlanta. 

The Braves fell into a huge early hole last night as starter Bartolo Colon simply didn't "have it" and as a result he may not be long for this starting rotation. Before you knew it, the Braves were down 3-0 after the top of the first and it got as bad as 9-0 before Atlanta finally scored in the fourth. I expect a far better start tonight from southpaw Jaime Garcia, who has a remarkable 0.42 ERA over his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost two of those last three starts even though Garcia has allowed just 1 ER (four runs total) in 21 2/3 IP. Last time out was the definition of "hard luck" as Garcia was charged w/ just one unearned run in seven innings, yet the team still lost 2-1 to the Angels. While the team has yet to experience sustained success in its new stadium, Garcia has pitched well here in his two starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. It sure is odd that only two of his 10 starts this season have come at home. In the previous series vs. the Phillies, Garcia worked six strong innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. But, sadly, the offense let him down (again) in a 4-3 loss.

While Garcia would clearly seem to be "due" (for some success), the same cannot be said for Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The team is 0-3 in his L3 starts and that's largely b/c of his 5.62 ERA. His last time out saw him last only three innings as he gave up four runs in a 10-2 loss at Miami. Rarely has Nola gone deep into games this year as there's been just one instance of him making it past the sixth inning. In addition to Garcia being due, the same could be said for the Braves as a whole at home. Remember Philly is 8-21 in road games. Garcia leads the way here. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Nationals/Dodgers (10:05 ET): What a series we have here. For my money, these are the two best teams in the National League right now. We might as well go ahead and already crown the Nationals champions of the NL East as they've already opened up a 10.5 game lead over the rest of the field and I assure you that none of the other teams in that division are talented enough to make up that gap. As for the Dodgers, they find themselves in a far more fierce race out West w/ Colorado and Arizona. Those three are separated by just two games and while LA may not have the division lead, they do own the best run differential in the entire Senior Circuit (at +84). That's largely due to the fact they are #1 in all of baseball in runs allowed. Because of that, I'm on the Under in tonight's series opener.

While the Dodgers have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, no team has scored more than the Nationals. So, obviously, something will have to give here. It should be noted that Washington's offense noticeably slowed down in May (4.3 rpg) as they were just 20th in runs per game during the month. The offense picked back up in a major way over the weekend in Oakland, but remember they had a DH in that series. Bryce Harper also returned from suspension Sunday. But the combination of no-DH and playing in Dodger Stadium should more than counteract Harper's return. Road teams are averaging just 3.1 rpg here at Dodger Stadium this year while batting a collective .217. Over the L7 days, Dodgers pitching has held opposing hitters below a .200 BA. 

Lucky for the Nats is that they have Gio Gonzalez going on the mound tonight. He is 3-1 w/ a 1.69 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. He also comes in off a quality start and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts overall. It should be pointed out that the Dodgers were shut out yday, the second time that's happened in the last four games, and they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the baseball for the home team here and he's coming off B2B strong showings, having allowed just three runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his past five outings. Washington's offensive numbers are way down when facing lefty starters this year, to 3.4 rpg. The Under is 5-1 in those games. 8* Under Nationals/Dodgers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): At first blush, this battle of NL East also-rans may appear to be as unappealing as any matchup on Monday's MLB card. But there are several reasons to like the Braves here, the fact they have revenge for a prior sweep (suffered back in April) chief among them. As any regular of mine knows, taking a team looking to avenge a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in betting MLB and it's been quite successful through the years, 2017 in particular. Atlanta has won each of the last two days, including a 13-run effort Sunday. Philadelphia is also off B2B wins here (over SF), but they're still not too far removed from an atrocious 6-22 May. Their weekend series also took place at home. On the road, they're a woeful 7-21, the worst such record in all of baseball.

It was at home that the Phillies swept a three-game set from the Braves in late April, two of the wins coming by a one-run margin. Shortly after that, they would nosedive and not only do they have the worst road record in baseball, they also have the worst overall record. Now Atlanta has struggled a bit in its first year playing a new home stadium (10-12), especially on the runs allowed side of the ledger (6.0 rpg). But they should certainly be happy to be back here after going 4-5 on the just completed road trip. Something else to consider is that no team has played fewer home games this year. Thus, there's still a likelihood that they'll be turning things around here at SunTrust Park, which is where they'll play 18 of their next 21 games. Before taking two of three from the Giants over the weekend, the Phils had lost 10 consecutive series. A pitching staff which has allowed 7.0 rpg over the last week could be in trouble in this hitter-friendly park. 

The two starting pitchers Monday are at very different stages of their respective careers. Philly has recalled Nick Pivetta from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Pivetta has made four starts at the big league level this year and the team has lost them all (5.12 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). He has yet to go more than five innings. Meanwhile, Atlanta counters w/ veteran Bartolo Colon, who is hardly having himself a great 2017. But despite taking a loss back in April, Colon still sports a 3.52 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Phillies. His last start is very misleading in the sense that seven of the nine runs allowed were unearned as his defense betrayed him that day. I'll call for the Braves to start to adjust to their new digs and revenge will be sweet Monday night. 10* Atlanta

10* Houston (3:05 ET): At this juncture, I can't see why you'd want to play against this Astros team. They won again yday (I had 'em) and are now 40-16, which is a better record than LY's Cubs had through 56 games. That was their ninth straight win and today they go for the sweep of the division rival Rangers, who are just 3-9 their L12 games following a relatively meaningless 10-game win streak. While the home team (Texas) gets a bit of a reprieve here knowing they no longer have to deal w/ the 1-2 combo of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr (who won the 1st two games), Brad Peacock still gives Houston a pitching edge today over Martin Perez, who looks like the worst starter on the entire Sunday slate. I'm calling for the red-hot Astros to finish the sweep. 

Some of what I have to say here will be rehashed from yday's analysis. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, the Rangers were likely to regress. That's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500 and they are only 4-9 in one-run games. It was a 6-5 loss last night as the strikeouts continue to pile up. Two days after matching a MLB record w/ 20 K's against Boston, they struck out 18 more times yday. It has to be frustrating to score five times against a pitcher like McCullers and still lose. Texas fell into an early hole (5-1 after third inning) and that was too much to overcome. 

I expect the home team to fall into another hole today. Perez has some ugly numbers and last time out allowed five runs in five innings, resulting in a 10-8 loss to the Rays. The team's record w/ him on the bump is not good (3-8). So far, the Rangers are just 1-5 head to head vs. the Astros in 2017. Perez is going to have to face a lineup which is not only averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road, but also 9.4 rpg their last seven games overall. That should be more than enough for Peacock, who in two starts has a 0.889 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. He'd previously been dominant as a reliever. This Astros team is 20-6 on the road, including a perfect 7-0 when between -125 and -175 on the money line. 10* Houston

8* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox broke through w/ a win here in Baltimore yday, their 1st of the series. They got the "old" David Price on the mound, who didn't even allow a runner past first base until giving up a HR in the bottom of the seventh inning. As if facing Price wasn't brutal enough for the Orioles, now they must face Chris Sale, which seems just unfair. Sale has emerged as perhaps the top pitcher in the American League this season, his first in a Red Sox uniform. He's won his last five decisions and leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) w/ 110 K's. Additionally, he ranks in the top 10 in both ERA (8th) and WHIP (4th). Starting opposite Sale here will be Chris Tillman, who is simply no match. I expect Boston to emerge from this series w/ a split. 

The fact these two AL East rivals are seperated by just one-half game in the standings is misleading. Baltimore, 29-25 for the year, has been outscored by its opponents. They are also not far removed from a seven-game losing streak and are just 4-9 L13 games overall. Tillman was among the league leaders in net units at the betting window in 2016, but few anticipated he'd repeat that and sure enough his team start record so far is 2-3 this year and the numbers are even worse. After allowing five runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 IP (against the Yankees) his last time out, his ERA and WHIP are now 5.87 and 1.870 respectively. He missed the first five weeks of the season w/ a shoulder issue, so perhaps that's the reason for the decline. Whatever the reason, I expect him to struggle here against a Boston lineup starting to find its way (5.1 rpg on the road). Tillman has yet to go longer than six innings in any of his five starts.

The scary thing for the O's here is that Sale wasn't even that dominant his last time out. He allowed six runs (five earned) and 10 hits in five innings to his former team (White Sox), in what was easily his worst outing of 2017. I fully expect to Sale bounce back here given the YTD resume. Last month, he dominated Baltimore, going eight innings and allowing just two runs and three hits. He also had 11 strikeouts. Looking at the strikeout number of the two starters today is striking. We already know Sale is the MLB leader in that department, at one point he had eight straight starts w/ 10+ K's, but Tillman's strikeout numbers remain poor. He hasn't had more than 4 in any outing this year. Big pitching mismatch today. 8* Boston

8* Houston (7:15): What was expected to be a pitcher's duel (Keuchel vs. Darvish) that would set the tone for this series instead turned into a one-sided affair last night w/ the Astros winning yet again. The AL West leaders have now won eight straight and have the same record through 55 games (39-16) that the Cubs did last year. Safe to say, this is the best team in all of MLB right now. To be fair, last night's game was a pitcher's duel two-thirds of the way w/ the teams' scoreless after four innings. It should be pointed out that there was a long rain delay as well w/ the game starting two hours later than expected. But, it was in the fifth where Houston finally broke through against Darvish, scoring three times and then they added four more off the bullpen, eventually winning 7-1. Having lost Darvish's start means real trouble here for the Rangers as a day after dealing w/ Keuchel, they must now face Lance McCullers, Jr while sending out Andrew Cashner themselves. Big pitching mismatch here.

Texas had that 10-game win streak, but has gone just 3-7 since losing three consecutive series. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, this team was set to regress. It's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500. Theoretically, Darvish gave them a good shot yday at being the 1st team to beat Keuchel this year. But you can't say the same about Cashner going against McCullers. While he's won 2 of his last three decisions, previously Cashner had gone 10 straight starts w/o a victory (dating back to last year). Facing an Astros lineup that's averaging 8.6 rpg during the current win streak is a daunting task. Even in those four scoreless innings against Darvish last night, the Astros were able to get a runner on base every inning. 

Along w/ Keuchel, McCullers forms possibly the strongest 1-2 punch in any rotation in all of MLB. Perhaps no pitcher had a better May than McCullers, who was 4-0 w/ a 0.99 ERA. Opponents hit just .164 off him in five starts last month. After allowing just a single (unearned) run his first four May starts, McCullers actually looked a little human his last time out by giving up three runs (two earned) in 6 IP vs. Baltimore. Houston still won of course, 8-4. Earlier in the year, McCullers dominated the Rangers w/ 10 strikeouts in 6 1/3 IP. That was opposite Cashner, by the way. Even if McCullers is not at his best again tonight, does it matter w/ an Astros lineup averaging an insane 6.7 rpg on the road this year? The team is a perfect 6-0 as a ML road favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Houston

10* Detroit (4:10 ET): Coming into 2017, the White Sox were thought to be embarking on a total rebuild, signaled by them dealing ace Chris Sale to Boston. However, they got off to a surprisingly decent start, led by a pitching staff that was near the top of the AL in runs allowed. Skeptics such as myself didn't know how long that would last, however, and sure enough we've seen the Pale Hose twice allow 13+ runs in the last three games. One of those times was last night in a crushing 15-5 loss to the Tigers. Moving forward, I expect the downward slide to continue for Chicago as they've now three straight and 7 of their last 11. Detroit has won 3 of 4 and today's pitching matchup is an instance of one of those "immediate revenge" situations I like to speak of. 

What I mean by "immediate revenge" is you have two pitchers facing off for the second time in as many starts. Historically, you'll find it very rare that the same pitcher wins both matchups. Last Sunday saw Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox defeat Jordan Zimmerman and the Tigers, 7-3. That loss could almost entirely be pinned on Zimmerman, who allowed all seven runs (gave up 3 HR's) and lasted only five innings. My thought is he'll pitch a lot better this time around. Last week's game was at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Zimmerman already has a 4-1 TSR here at home as opposed to 0-5 on the road. As for Gonzalez, Sunday marked just the second quality start in his L6 outings. So, I'd expect him to pitch significantly WORSE today.

Then, there's this Tigers' offense. Yesterday saw them jump all over Chicago starter Derek Holland, scoring 10 runs by the end of the third inning. They finished w/ a season-high 11 extra base hits. Gonzalez is really no better than Holland and is 0-4 w/ a 6.56 ERA his L4 road starts. He also has a career ERA of 7.02 vs. Detroit in 12 appearances, 10 of those starts. So last time out was certainly a bit of an abberration for him against this opponent. Something else to consider for this rematch is that the Tigers are averaging a healthy 5.6 runs per game at home this year. The White Sox are 0-2 thus far in 2017 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. That includes Wednesday's loss to the Red Sox. I'm confident Zimmerman bounces back and the Tigers proved yday that they are the superior team. 10* Detroit

10* Over Nationals/A's (10:05 ET): We again turn to the discussion of National League teams getting to play in American League parks. The obvious benefit here is the addition of the designated hitter to the lineup while the pitcher no longer has to come up to bat. In the case of the Nationals, this could be a very bad thing for the host Athletics. Washington is already near the top of MLB in all key offensive categories, including 2nd in runs scored and team batting average, third in OBP and 1st in slugging. Numbers at the plate were a little down in May, but that in no way affected the team's success. This will be just the 2nd time for the Nats getting to play in AL park this season. The Over was 2 for 2 in a quick visit to Baltimore last month. This trip comes at a good time as the DH spot should counteract the suspension of Bryce Harper. Take the Over. 

Now Stephen Strasburg facing the A's lineup looks like a complete mismatch in favor of the former. Oakland swings and misses A LOT (19 times Wednesday!) and Strasburg, who has always been sharp in IL play, comes off an outing w/ 15 K's. But his L2 starts have also come against Atlanta and San Diego, two very light hitting teams. He'll have to deal w/ a DH too rather than the pitcher coming up to bat. Also, let's keep an eye on how deep into the game Strasburg goes. If he's lifted early, that could be a problem for the Nats as their bullpen remains a question mark. On the road, things have been quite ugly w/ the 'pen posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. The A's will be looking to atone for yday's shutout loss in Cleveland and thankfully, they average about a full run per game more at home than they do on the road. Given Washington is the prohibitive favorite, there's a solid chance Oakland has to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Those final three outs can sometimes be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under.

Meanwhile, the Nats average 5.5 rpg on the road, roughly an identical number as to what they average at home. Because Strasburg is on the hill, this O/U line is low. I look for the offense to take advantage of Andrew Triggs, who allowed six runs his last time out (admittedly, five were unearned). But Triggs also allowed six runs in his start previous to that one and all but one were earned. Earned or unearned, Triggs is still giving up plenty of runs and this will be the best offense he will have faced to date. In four of his last seven outings, he's allowed at least five runs. The wind is expected to be blowing OUT tonight, which theoretically should aid our cause as well. Potentially, there may be a few more home run balls as a result. The Over is 19-9-2 in Nats' night games this year. 10* Over Nationals/A's

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Over the last two days, the Cardinals did something - twice - that the Cubs failed to do even once over a three-day span last week. That would be beat the Dodgers. In fact, the defending World Series Champs come into this series on an almost unthinkable six-game losing skid, having not just been swept by the Dodgers, but by the lowly Padres as well. That latter result simply "can't happen." This is now the club's longest losing skid under Joe Maddon and the 0-6 road trip was their first since 2012. But the Cubbies are back in the "Friendly Confines" today as the begin what is somewhat of a crucial series w/ their main rival. Despite the road trip giving us little reason to support them, I suspect this will be a nice bounce back weekend for the home team.

Perhaps the Cubs forgot to "pack their offense" for the West Coast trip. In the six games, they scored just nine runs (shut out twice by the Dodgers) and on Wednesday, they managed only three hits against the Padres. Clearly then, this represents what I call a "buy low" situation on what still projects to be the NL Central winner. There's only one way for the Cubs to go here and it's up. It should be pointed out that they are averaging a healthy 5.1 rpg at Wrigley this season. After splitting six games w/ the Cardinals at Busch Stadium earlier in the year, this is their first time getting to host St. Louis. Having had yday off while the Cards were wrapping things up w/ LA seems to be an edge for the Cubs to me. They are 7-3 after an off-day this season.

John Lackey will toe the rubber today, facing his former team. He's a perfect 5 for 5 when it comes to quality starts against St. Louis. His 1st start of this season was against the Redbirds and it resulted in a Cubs victory, 6-4, at the expense of the pitcher he'll again be facing today. That would be Lance Lynn, who admittedly is having a strong comeback season after Tommy John surgery put him on the shelf for all of 2016. But last time out saw Lynn struggle as he allowed four runs (tied a season-high) at Colorado. Granted, Lackey is off B2B similar showings, but Lynn has a career 4.76 ERA here in Wrigley and has lost three of his last five starts here. I look for the Cubs to break out of their slump this afternoon. They're still a very good ballclub even though they haven't shown that recently. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Arizona (7:10 ET): Given the pitching matchup here, this line looks to be absolute steal & reminiscent of the plays involved in yday's 3-0 sweep. The D'backs, 33-22 on the season w/ a +54 run differential, will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Miami, just 21-30 (-22 run diff) and off a rare sweep (of the lowly Phillies), counters w/ Jeff Locke. Greinke's resume need not be rehashed here (but I will below!), but Locke (a 2013 All-Star) is making his first start of the season. Arm issues are what have delayed Locke's first start not just of 2017, but in a Miami uniform as well. This is a prime chance to face the Marlins as they're off the rare sweep, which came at the expense of the few teams below them in the standings.

Arizona currently finds itself involved in a tight three-horse race in the NL West (w/ LA and Colorado) as the trio are all seperated by just one-half game. Only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored opponents by a wider margin over the course of the season, among Senior Circuit clubs. The fact they can claim such marks while being "only" 7-4 in Greinke starts makes things look all the more impressive. Currently eighth in all of baseball in WHIP (0.995), Greinke is off a strong month of May and has won five of his last six decisions overall. The lone loss came his last time out where he uncharctertistically gave up five runs. But I look for him to bounce back and not just because lefties are batting .227 against hime while righties are at .210. He's also fifth in the NL in K's per nine innings (10.5) and has traditionally "owned" the Marlins w/ a 4-0 record and 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Arizona also brings an impressive offense to South Beach. They are top five in both runs scored and slugging in all of baseball. So this is hardly an ideal lineup for Locke to face in his season debut. Locke, four years removed from his best season, has a sub-.500 career record to go w/ a 4.41 ERA. In five previous appearances vs. the D'backs, his ERA is 6.57. Getting back to the idea of this being an ideal situation to play AGAINST Miami, note that the sweep against Philadelphia was their first over any team since last August. The four-game win streak is a season-high and they'd previously failed to win B2B series at any point this season. That should counteract any lingering effect Arizona may have from having to go extra innings last night to beat Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Thanks to a 7-1 loss yday, the Mets no longer have a chance to sweep the Brew Crew here in Queens. But I do envision them bouncing back for this afternoon's series finale to make it three out of four over the current (and surprising) NL Central leaders. I remain highly skeptical of this Milwaukee club being that they aren't anything special on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Now, the Mets are even worse in that department (in fact, they're tied for 28th in all of baseball), but today's pitching matchup is seems heavily tilted towards the home side and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted their number properly for that.

Last time out, Milwaukee's Chase Anderson threw a gem, delivering 11 K's while allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings. I don't see a repeat of that performance forthcoming, however. Why? Well, for starters, those 11 strikeouts posted in his last start matched the number of K's Anderson had in his previous three starts - combined. Two starts ago, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a terrible showing against the Cubs. Notable is that start came on the road, while the last one was at home. In three career starts vs. the Mets, Anderson is winless w/ a 4.80 ERA. Prior to yday's win, the Brewers had dropped seven of nine. While their last series saw them earn a split after dropping the first two games (vs. Arizona), I don't see them being able to repeat the feat now that they're the road team. In five road starts this year, Anderson has a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Moving forward, I'm highly suspicious of the team being able to maintain its current average of allowing just 3.8 runs per game away from Miller Park. 

Opposing Anderson here will be Zach Wheeler. He too is coming off a strong outing, a pitcher's duel w/ Gerrit Cole, where he allowed just three runs in six innings of work. That left him in line for the win, but sadly the Mets' bullpen blew the game. Still, Wheeler has proven to be the team's best pitcher outside of Jacob deGrom this year. While deGrom failed to get the job done yday (allowed SEVEN runs!), I think Wheeler can. I say that knowing full well he's allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. Wheeler has pitched twice against the Brew Crew in his career and has a 1.54 ERA. He did not pitch in the series last month in Milwaukee that the Brewers swept. (Neither did Anderson). Look for the home team to bounce back today. 8* NY Mets

8* Washington (10:15 ET): Sparks have already flown in this series, which has seen the first place Nationals take the first two games from the disappointing Giants. It was Monday's game, a 3-0 Nats shutout, that provided the headlines. In that game, Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland (a SF reliver) got into a brawl leading to suspensions being handed down. Obviously, that would be a net loss for the Nats if Harper were out, but he's not (currently appealing) and one has to wonder if his presence even matters tonight given the lopsided pitching matchup we have on tap. Harper was 0 for 5 at the plate last night and the Nats still won 6-3 thanks to 14 hits. With ace Max Scherzer on the bump tonight, they should finish off the sweep pretty handily. 

Schezer comes in w/ only a 6-4 team start record, but his WHIP is 0.936 and his ERA is 2.77. Those numbers even slightly improve out on the road (0.865, 2.60). Last time out, as you might expect, Scherzer dominated the lowly Padres. He struck out a season-high 13 batters while allowing just one run and three hits over 8 2/3 innings. Now you might say "that's San Diego." Well, the Giants have actually scored FEWER runs than San Diego this year and are 29th overall in MLB in crossing the plate. Additionally, they are 29th in team batting average and OBP. They're last in slugging. Scherzer has allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start this year & has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five trips to the mound. This is an ideal matchup for him. 

Meanwhile, I expect little out of Giants' starter Matt Cain tonight. He did pitch well last week vs. Atlanta, but did give up seven hits in 7 IP, so he was somewhat fortunate to get away w/ only allowing two runs. Of course, that was after he allowed seven runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 IP vs. St. Louis on 5.21. Unlike Scherzer, strikeout numbers remain low for Cain and he actually has a negative KW ratio over his L5 starts (14-15), which is never good. While the Nats continue to own the best record in the National League (still percentage points above the red-hot Dodgers), we need to come to grips w/ the fact the Giants are simply not a good team in 2017. Their -68 run differential is "topped" only by the aforementioned Padres (-87). The offense just isn't there right now and the team has dropped 7 of its last 10. 8* Washington

8* Boston (8:10 ET): While today's pitching matchup might not be nearly as slanted in the Red Sox direction as yday's was, it still calls for a play. With Chris Sale on the mound Tuesday night, Boston rolled to a 13-7 win here at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Ironically, it was more the Boston bats than Sale that led the way. In fact, it was probably Sale's worst effort in a Red Sox uniform. But, his offense picked him by scoring 13 runs on 16 hits, six of those being home runs! That's notable here b/c tonight's pitching matchup is less about who Boston has on the mound and more about playing AGAINST White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey, who remains one of the weakest pitchers in any rotation in all of baseball. Given how the Red Sox are swinging the bats right now, this should be an easy one. 

Last season saw Boston "lap" the rest of the league offensively, scoring - by far - the most runs in all of baseball. It was a slow start at the plate here in 2017, but I'm predicting that to change sooner rather than later. Why's that? Well, first off, despite being a somewhat pedesstrian 12th in runs scored so far, the team is not only third in batting average, but also 1st in on base percentage! Given those two rankings, one would reasonably conclude they're "due" to start scoring some more runs. We've already begun to see that w/ four games of 9+ runs in the L9 games. (They've averaged over 7.0 rpg during that stretch). Pelfrey should make things easy on them here as he comes in w/ a 4.41 ERA.

The Red Sox will go w/ Drew Pomeranz, whose numbers may not excite you, but he's looked good lately. That includes his last time out when he held Texas to just two runs and four hits over six innings. He also struck out a season-high 11 batters. I, like a lot of people, have been downright stunned at the White Sox surprising start as this was expected to be a rebuilding year. Instead, they continue to hover around .500 (currently three games under) and have a run differential of +22. Key for them was ranking at or near the top of the American League in fewest number of runs allowed, but as we saw yday, that ranking is starting to slip and it's only a matter of time before the entire time follows suit. 8* Boston

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): The Rays appeared well on their way to a second straight victory in Arlington last night (would be have third straight win overall). Then the 7th and 8th innings happened. Over those two frames, the Rangers scored seven runs, thereby turning a 5-2 deficit into a 9-5 win. But tonight, we have a rather substantial pitching mismatch in favor of the visitors w/ Chris Archer opposing Austin Bibens-Dirkx. We know what the former is all about, but for the latter, this is his first big league start. Tampa Bay was better than its record last season (worst record in MLB in one-run games) and the same could be said for this season as they have a +24 run differential. Texas overachieved massively last season (36-13 in one-run games!) and I remain steadfast they are set to regress here in 2017.

Archer, like his team, did not have a very good 2016. He actually was dead last in all of baseball in net units at the betting window. But I was quick to jump on the bandwagon this year, calling for a bounce back. While he's only 4-3 in 11 starts so far (6-5 TSR), he's posted impressive numbers in five of his last six trips to the mound, the exception coming against an opponent (Cleveland) that always gives him trouble. Archer struck out 11 batters his last time out en route to a 5-2 win where he lasted 7 2/3 innings and gave up only five hits. Over his last five starts, he now has 51 strikeouts and that's bad news for a Texas lineup that certainly "isn't afraid" to swing and miss. Remember there was a game last week (against Boston) where they struck out 20 times! They struck out another 10 times yday, giving them 65 in just the last six games alone. Unlike yday when starter Matt Andriese had to leave in the 2nd inning due to a groin injury, the Rays can be expect a long outing from their starter here as Archer has gone 7+ innings five times this season. 

Bibens-Dirks is a journeyman of sorts whose lone big league experience prior to this came in relief. He was called up two weeks ago and has made four appearances total. Two of those were 1 1/3 innings or less and the Rangers have lost each of the last three times he's worked. His last appearance, which saw him need 84 pitches to get through four innings, saw him allow three runs including two homers. I realize Texas has been a lot better at home this year, but the pitching mismatch is too sizable to ignore. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (8:10 ET): The Red Sox lost to the White Sox yday, 5-4, spoiling what was David Price's first start of the season. This year's big free agent acquisition, Chris Sale, toes the rubber tonight. You might be shocked to learn that it is Sale's former team (Chicago) that comes into this game sporting a better YTD run differential (+28 to +25) despite being slightly below .500. I don't think anyone, myself included, thought that the White Sox would be among the AL leaders for fewest number of runs allowed at this juncture of the season. But look for Sale to show them "what their missing" here as I anticipate a dominant performance from MLB's leader in WHIP (0.808).

Sale had been on a record-breaking pace in terms of strikeouts before a somewhat shaky start his last time out. What still ended up as a 9-4 win over Texas last Wednesday marked the 1st time in nine starts that the lefty failed to record at least 10 K's. He finished w/ "only" six and allowed four runs (three earned) in 7 1/3 innings of work. He is 4-0 here in May w/ a 49-8 KW ratio. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. This will be his 1st time starting against his former team, who he won 74 games for between 2010-16. Sadly for the White Sox, Sale may currently be having his best year ever. Not only does he lead all of baseball in WHIP, but he's #1 in opponents' on base percentage (.223). His MLB lead in strikeouts is almost preposterous as he has 23 more than the NL leader, Zack Greinke. Sale is just the fourth pitcher ever (Martinez, Schilling, Clemens) to post 100+ K's in his first 10 starts of a season.

Somewhat ironically, Sale will face off w/ the now de facto ace of the Chicago staff, Jose Quintana. While Quintana has pitched well in the past against Boston, he's hardly coming off his finest effort here. In fact, it was a season-worst showing as he allowed eight runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. As formidable as the D'backs offense has been this year at home, remember, they don't have a designated hitter and Boston does. The Red Sox offense, which was by far and away the best in baseball last season, is due to start scoring more as they are 2nd in team batting average and 3rd in OBP. I just can't see Chicago beating Boston two straight times, especially w/ Sale pitching here. 8* Boston

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The Marlins avenged what was an abbreviated series sweep by the Phillies (two games) by winning yday, 4-1. It was their second straight win (1st time this month!) and third in the last four games. Given what was said in that last sentence, I think tonight would be a good time to fade them. The club posted a pair of three-game win streaks in starting 6-5 out of the gate this season, but since then has only won B2B games twice. Tonight's starting pitching matchup seems to be squarely in favor of the Phillies as well, making the ML all the more curious. Justin Nicalino projects to have as poor a start as any pitcher on the card Tuesday while the Phils' Vince Velasquez is better than the numbers show. Look for the road team to even this series. 

Just to give you a "lay of the land" w/ Miami, their Opening Day starter (Edinson Volquez) just won for the 1st time all season last night. Despite having won five of eight overall, the club is still only 8-18 in May. They have the majors' worst home record at 9-15. Injuries have decimated the starting infield. Compounding matters tonight is the fact Nicalino will be on the mound. His last start came on May 19th and not only did he allow a pair of home runs in four innings, he allowed five runs total in what turned out to be a 7-2 loss at the Dodgers. Through two starts, his walk rate is at a career worst 5.4 per nine innings. He's never been a high strikeout pitcher and having spent the better part of the last three seasons bouncing back between Triple-A and the big leagues, his numbers overall aren't getting any better. Miami is just 6-12 off a win this season.

Now Philadelphia is nothing to "write home about" either as they've dropped 23 of 29 to fall to 17-32 on the year, which is the worst record in all of baseball. But I believe Velasquez can be the difference tonight. He turned in a quality start against the Marlins earlier this year and is also off perhaps his finest showing of 2017 as last Thursday saw him hold the Rockies to just a single run in 5 IP. He also had seven strikeouts against just one walk. Overall, he's been better on the road as his ERA is roughly a point and a half lower. The Marlins have been one of Velasquez's favorite opponents through the years as he is 2-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against them. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Mariners/Rockies (7:10 ET): In these Interleague matchups, I feel venue is one of the most important factors to handicap. That's because it determines whether or not an American League team loses the designated hitter spot from its batting order or the National League team gains it. In the case of yday's Over play on Cincy-Toronto, a Reds team already averaging more than 5.0 rpg made for a good Over play as they would (theoretically) benefit from the DH. Though that turned out to be a "moot point" (Blue Jays scored 17 runs on their own), the line of thinking remains valid. Here, we have quite the opposite situation. Seattle, a low-scoring team, LOSES the DH spot. Therefore, that should help counteract the park itself (Coors) where the # of total runs per game is "only" 10.6 to begin with. Take the Under here. 

Yesterday, the teams combined for 11 runs "on the nose" as Seattle took the opener, 6-5. With Colorado off to such a surprising start, it's odds to see them only 15-12 here at Coors Field. They are 14-5 off a loss though, so perhaps we should expect them to bounce back? Over the weekend, they exchanged shutouts w/ St. Louis before taking the finale of that three-game set, 8-4. Over the L7 games, the pitching staff has allowed just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents batting .226. In a major departure from past seasons, the Rockies are pretty respectable on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Starting tonight is Tyler Anderson, who is off B2B quality starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer three of his past four turns in the rotation. He's allowed just 21 hits during that time (in 24 2/3 IP). His career ERA in IL play (all starts at home) is a respectable 3.26.

This will be a battle of lefties as the Mariners send out Ariel Mirand, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his past six outings. He has a 2.12 ERA and 1.059 WHIP his last three starts, all of them resulting in Unders. Overall, Seattle has been an Under team as yday's "push" snapped a streak of five in a row going Under. Keep in mind that before those five straight Unders, the team scored exactly one run in each of his previous four games! The M's have averaged just 2.4 rpg their last seven contests and it was somewhat surprising to see them scored six times yday given that they got nothing from the player who normally DH's, Nelsonn Cruz, who was 0 for 4. Cruz having to play right field here squeezes out a bat from the lineup that would be far more effective than the pitcher's spot here. Miranda is hitless in four at-bats this year. 10* Under Mariners/Rockies

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): After a busy week (played eight games including doubleheader Saturday), this is not a very good spot for the Tigers, who have to stay on the road for a third consecutive series. They are facing a team that just got done playing three straight road series itself and while the Royals were the victims of my 10* Game of the Week Sunday (lost 10-1 to the Indians!), this is a far better team at home than on the road and I feel they are not being adequately priced due to the slow start to the season. Detroit is just 11-17 on the road and getting outscored by more than a full run per game. The offense typically goes in the "toilet" outside of Comerica Park w/ a collective .224 batting average. Yesterday saw them fail to even put a single runner on base through six-plus innings as they were held to three runs or fewer for the sixth time in the last nine games. Go w/ the home team here. 

The Tigers did end up scoring three times w/ six hits Sunday, but it wasn't nearly enough as they fell behind the White Sox 6-0 early. Aside from splitting the doubleheader on Saturday, the club hasn't won since Wednesday and has dropped seven of its last nine overall. Thanks in no small part to an incompetent bullpen (6.07 ERA on the road!), they've allowed the most runs in the entire American League this year w/ only the Mets and Padres over in NL having given up more. Starting tonight will be Daniel Norris, whose 1.621 WHIP isn't exactly pretty. Norris did pitch pretty well his last time out (at Houston), but hasn't been able to string together B2B quality efforts since his first two starts of the season.

The Royals were bludgeoned yday, but that was after taking the first two games in Cleveland. Without question, it has been a bad start to the season, but at least the team is above .500 at home (9-17 on the road) and for the month. Starting for them today will be Jason Hammel, who has been a massive disappointment coming over from the Cubs. His TSR is 1-8 and the lone win was May 5th. But he is off a quality effort at Yankee Stadium last week where he allowed just three runs in 6 IP. He also finished w/ a season-best 7 K's. Situationally, there is a massive edge for KC in Monday's opener as the Tigers may very well be "sucking on fumes" at this point. 10* Kansas City

8* Over Reds/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): This colorful Interleague series features two teams within "sniffing distance" of .500. But while that's cause for celebration in Cincinnati, Toronto is clearly one of the biggest disappointments in the American League right now. Regression was to be expected after an exodus of talent via free agency, but last place in the AL East was certainly not what the fan base had it mind. Nevertheless, the team had won five in a row prior to Sunday's 3-1 loss to the Rangers. Cincinnati took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend and an offense averaging more than 5.0 runs per game now benefits from the usage of the designated hitter the next three games. That should lead to some higher scoring than expected affairs here North of the Border, including tonight. Take the Over.

For the fourth time this season, Lisalverto Bonilla will toe the rubber for the Reds. After an impressive 2017 debut against the Giants back on May 13th, he's been trending in the wrong direction. That includes an ugly performance vs. Colorado (not at Coors) where he allowed six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Bonilla has allowed a home run in every start so far, significant because the Blue Jays have had two games w/ 3+ HR over their last five. The Cincinnati bullpen has been shockingly good, particularly on the road thus far, but they are still giving up over 5.0 rpg for the year as a staff. That's facing National League lineups as well, without the DH, something they'll have to deal w/ here. The player who likely occupies that spot for Toronto here - Kendrys Morales - has nine home runs this year. 

Speaking of home runs, the Reds matched a season-high yday w/ three of them - and 12 hits overall - en route to an 8-4 victory. With a DH, they'll face Marcus Stroman tonight. While Stroman has not been beaten in over a month, there are some key numbers suggest that he is fortunate to be able to claim that. Such as allowing two home runs his last time out or having a 1.499 WHIP his last three starts overall. His last two starts have come in NL parks as well, which - as we've previously established - benefits the pitcher tremendously. Each of Stroman's last three starts have gone Over the total as not only did he allow two home runs in Milwaukee last Wednesday, but he also issued four walks. While there's a chance the Blue Jays don't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (heavy favorites on the money line here), I feel enough runs will have been scored by that time to send this one Ovr the total. 8* Over Reds/Blue Jays

8* NY Mets (4:10 ET): Typically, a team coming off the Sunday night game (in a day game, no less!) would give me pause, but given the way the Mets performed last night, I'll look past that. They have revenge here after being swept by Milwaukee earlier this month at Miller Park. The Brew Crew are currently your surprise leaders in the NL Central (yes, they are ahead of the Cubs), but I do not anticipate that lasting too long as this team is middle of the road in terms of runs allowed and 26th in WHIP and opponents' batting average. Doesn't sound like a sustainable blueprint to me. After losing five in a row, Milwaukee did post B2B wins over Arizona this weekend, but in breaking down this matchup, what really surprised me is that the Mets are every bit the equals of the Brewers offensively. Look for revenge to be sweet in the Big Apple Monday afternoon. 

We got a glimpse of the "old" Matt Harvey last night as "The Dark Knight" turned in his best pitching performance of 2017 by going six innings and allowing just one run. Hopefully, some of that rubbed off on today's starter, Robert Gsellman. In addition to having a hard to pronounce last name, like Harvey, Gsellman is looking to bounce back from a bit of a rough stretch (6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP L3 starts). But we did see some improvement his last time out, albeit against the lowly Padres, as he turned in a quality effort by allowing just three runs in 6 IP (Mets still lost 6-5). Save for one bad start against Atlanta, Gsellman has allowed exactly three runs in each of his other four home starts. He didn't exactly perform well against Milwaukee earlier this month, but again, that was on the road. The Brewers offense averages about a full run less per game on the road than they do at Miller Park.

It's not like Brewers' starter Matt Garza comes into this game in fine form either. Last time out, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a loss to Toronto. That was at home mind you when the Blue Jays were w/o the DH. He has a 4.60 ERA in five career starts vs. the Mets. Prior to the series earlier this month, these teams hadn't actually played since June of last season. So it's been a LONG time since the Mets have beaten the Brewers (June 10, 2016). This will actually be the Brew Crew's first stop at Citi Field in a little over a calendar year! The revenge angle is big here as is the fact I'm just not a believer in the Brewers. 8* NY Mets

10* LA Dodgers (2:10 ET): Cardinals pitcher Mike Leake likely deserves far better than a 5-4 team start record given his NL-best 1.91 ERA and a 0.929 WHIP. But this will be his second straight start facing off against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Though this angle failed me twice last week in the Royals-Yankees series, historically, it has been a big winner. The angle being taking the pitcher who lost the first meeting if facing the same pitcher for a second straight start. Furthermore, the Dodgers come in off a very impressive sweep of the Cubs where they posted B2B shutouts Friday/Saturday before winning 9-4 Sunday. Though not even in first place in their own division, a case could be made for the Dodgers being the best team in baseball right now (MLB best +78 run diff). I'm on them in this series opener.

The Dodgers took two of three from the Cards in last week's series. This Leake-Hill matchup was the lone loss. Hill did not pitch well at all, issuing seven walks while giving up five runs in just 4 IP. It was his worst start of the year and bad enough to make one wonder just how big the blister issue really is. But I fully anticipate a bounce back effort here. Though just 1-1 liftime against St. Louis (six starts), he's held them to a .202 batting average. The Redbirds come into today's game having scored an average of just 3.25 runs over their last eight games. They managed only seven runs total over the weekend and that was at the most hitter-friendly park in MLB (Coors Field). 

Leake was at his best last week at Chavez Ravine, but I'm still not all that impressed w/ his strikeout numbers. He hasn't registered more than five in any of his L5 starts. Behind him, there are some significant issues w/ the team, namely defense and the bullpen. The latter, Matt Bowman specifically, gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth Sunday. That makes it 29 runs allowed by the Cards' pen over the L11 games. The defense also remains bad, for a second season in a row. They are tied for the fourth most errors in MLB and only two teams have a worse fielding percentage. That absolutely matters in today's game. Bottom line is that the the Dodgers, winners of 9 of their last 11 games, are playing at a much higher level right now than are the Cardinals, who have lost 8 of their last 11. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Under Mets/Pirates (8:05 ET): After suffering an ugly 8-1 loss in the series opener, Pittsburgh was able to bounce back here at home w/ a 5-4 win Saturday. The game went to extra innings only after John Jaso (who won the game in the 10th) singled in the game-tying run in the bottom of the ninth. Of course, a case could be made that the Bucs should have had the game "in the bag" much earlier, but a baserunning gaffe by Andrew McCutcheon kept the Mets alive. Even though exactly nine runs were scored in each of the first two games, I'm calling for the lowest scoring game of the series tonight as the home team is hardly an offensive juggernaut while Mets' road games are simply "due" to be lower scoring. Take the Under.

Incredibly, Mets' road games thus far have average 12.5 runs per game! That's played a big role in the team having gone Over in 30 of their 46 games (30-10-6) overall. So too has a bullpen that's blown save opportunities in five of its last seven tries. Therefore, there's some real pressure on Matt Harvey to pitch well tonight. "The Dark Knight" has been a shell of his former self for most of the year, but he's shown signs his L2 outings by allowing only five runs total in 10 1/3 IP. He allowed only three hits in his last start. Pittsburgh comes into this game just 23rd in runs scored while they are 27th in team batting average and slugging. They average less than 4.0 rpg at PNC Park (3.7). In other words, this is a lineup that Harvey should be able to handle.

On the flip side, we have Tyler Glasnow starting for the Pirates. Like Harvey, he has struggled much of this year, but is coming off a decent outing. He held Atlanta to just two runs in six innings of work Tuesday. The Mets have never faced him, which is an advantage for the pitcher. More often than not, the Over has cashed w/ Glasnow on the hill. In fact, his only start that has stayed Under was his first and ironically that was a game where he allowed five runs in 1 2/3 IP. Harvey also has been kind to Over bettors, but this projects to the highest O/U line for any of his starts all season. Look for both starters to be better than expected here and keep the respective offenses in check. 8* Under Mets/Pirates

10* Cleveland (1:10 ET): I remain pretty much astounded at how subpar Cleveland has been at home so far. Following yday's loss, they are 8-13 at Progressive Field, which is the worst home record in the American League. Only Miami (7-15 at home) is worse among National League clubs. They're now facing the prospect of getting swept here by the last place Royals after blowing leads each of the past two days. Friday saw an early 4-0 lead quickly evaporate into a 6-4 defeat while Saturday's 2-1 lead became a 5-2 loss. As a reminder, the Royals are - easily - the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Indians are tied for the third fewest runs allowed in the A.L. They shouldn't be giving up this many runs, at home. I'll call for them to avoid the sweep here. 

The Tribe was projected to run away with the AL Central this year. But that's not happening due in large part to the team's struggles here at home. After sweeping the American League's best (Houston) last weekend on the road, it's been downright head-scratching to see them drop four of five to the Reds and Royals w/ all but one of the losses taking place here at Progressive Field. Josh Tomlin pitches today, looking to erase B2B poor starts. The last time he won may have been May 6th, but it was against KC, whom he held to just one run and three hits in seven innings of work. That improved Tomlin's all-time record to 9-4 against the Royals. Though he's given up some runs lately, a 27-2 KW rate over his last seven starts indicates that this is a pitcher w/ a decent skill set.

The Indians have not been swept here at home by the Royals (in a series of 3+ games) since 2003. That's a long time. So history is on their side and so too is the fact that KC is 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. That's in addition to being last (30th) in runs scored. They are just 5-11 in day games this season. There have been just two times so far that they have posted win streaks of more than two games. Both times saw them playing at home. Danny Duffy will toe the rubber today as the team looks to win for a fourth straight time w/ him on the mound. Duffy was a hard luck loser (1-0) when he faced Cleveland earlier this year and it's worth noting he has an 0-4 TSR vs. the division so far in 2017. I just can't see the Indians being swept here. 10* Cleveland

10* Arizona (4:10 ET): Neither Arizona nor Milwaukee was expected to be a legit contender in 2017, yet both started off the season well. However, of late, they've been trending in opposite directions. The D'backs have won five in a row while the Brew Crew have lost five in a row and that includes a pair of wins by the road team here in Miller Park the last two days. With a significant pitching edge today (Zack Greinke), I see this trend continuing. Arizona is now #2 in all of MLB in run differential (+60!), trailing only the division rival Dodgers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a curious 12-15 at home. With a lineup minus Ryan Braun already scuffling, I don't see them having many answers for Greinke today.

Each of the last four times Greinke has taken the mound, the D'backs have won. He has a 0.66 WHIP in May and last time out, he was downright dominant. He came one out shy of a complete game and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out a season-high 12 batters. Miller Park is a place Greinke used to call home (from 2011-13) as a member of the Brewers' roster and during that time he always dominated here. In 26 career starts in this ballpark, he is 16-2 w/ a 3.07 ERA. He's currently working on a 12 2/3 inning scoreless streak against his former team. With this edition of the Brew Crew having scored just nine runs total in the last four games, it seems like an ideal matchup today for Greinke.  Benefiting from betting pitch framing this season, Greinke's strikeout rate is up to a career best 29.9 percent.

Overall, Arizona has won 10 of its last 11. The pitching staff ranks a surprising 2nd in opponents batting average (.232), but the offense has also done its job by scoring the third most runs in all of baseball. So I like their chances today against Chase Anderson, who checks in w/ a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP his L3 starts. He was hammered his last time out, giving up six runs in just four innings at Chicago. He has fewer strikeouts in his last three starts combined than Grienke did his last time out alone. Unlike Arizona, the Brewers' pitching staff has simply not gotten the job done this year. They are dead last in opponents' batting average (.269) and 29th in quality starts. The offense, now dormant, carried the team early on. But are they fortunate to rank 4th in runs scored? Considering they are just 13th in team batting average and 16th in on base percentage, I'd say yes. 10* Arizona

8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): I think its fair to say that the Indians have been a slight disappointment so far in 2017. Coming off their first American League pennant in 20 years, they've started just 24-22 and aren't even in first place of a division that were expected to run away with. Most confounding of all is the team's 8-12 record here at Progressive Field. Despite jumping out to a 4-0 lead last night, the club lost again, to the Royals no less. Allowing a six-run rally to the lowest scoring team in all of MLB certainly is not a "good look" for the Tribe, but nevertheless I anticipate them bouncing back today w/ Danny Salazar on the bump. A rare error by SS Francisco Lindor was the key play in last night's game and something like that is certainly not likely to happen again. 

Back to back offensive outbursts from the Royals have been rare this season. Consider that while last night marked the third time in the past five games they scored six times, they've totaled just two runs off the previous two occurrences. Last time in the situation, they were shutout by the Yankees on Wednesday. Not only does this team rank dead last in MLB in runs scored, but they are also 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. While Salazar has struggled a bit here in the month of May, he did have one relatively good outing against the Royals where he struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. This is a talented pitcher that I believe is likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. 

Last night, the Royals got a bullpen performance that was reminiscent of their B2B runs to the World Series. Their relievers held the Indians to just three hits over six scoreless innings. But for the year, the bullpen has a 5.67 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in road games. Cleveland's bullpen has been much better w/ Chad Allen (13.7 K's per nine innings) and Andrew Miller (0.72 ERA) leading the way. It was really too bad that starter Mike Clevinger wasn't able to hold the lead last night. Another factor that has me on the Tribe here is performance in day games. They are 10-5 while the Royals are 4-11. KC will be starting Jason Vargas, who has an 8.10 ERA his L2 starts, both against the Yankees. His career ERA against the Indians is 4.33. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Reds/Phillies (4:05 ET): These two clubs have spent the majority of 2017 going Over the total thus far. Of course, that was to be expected from two bad teams projected to have less than stellar pitching staffs. But, matched up w/ one another last night, they stayed Under the total as the Reds prevailed 5-2 here in the City of Brotherly Love. Credit Cincinnati starter Tim Adelman for that as he held the Phillies to just ONE hit over eight sparkling innings. (Both runs for the home team came in a relatively meaningless rally in the bottom of the ninth). While a similar performance may not be expected today from Bronson Arroyo, note that the Phils simply aren't hitting much or scoring right now, thus Under is the play here.

Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in six consecutive contests. Over the last week, they're batting a collective .164. Yesterday marked the fourth time in the last six games that they were held to only three hits. Over the last 14 games, the team is averaging less than 3.0 runs per game (2.9). While one might look at Arroyo's last two starts (11 runs & 17 hits allowed) as cause for concern here, note Adelman came into yday sporting a 6.19 ERA this season. So there's hope for any pitcher against the Phillies right now. At one point, Adelman was able to retire 16 consecutive batters. Of his 24 total outs recorded, 16 were via ground ball.

Phillies starter Jack Eickhoff is all too familiar w/ his team's offensive futility. The team has scored just one run in each of his last two outings. That's too bad because the righty has been relatively sharp. He has 12 K's in his last 12 IP and much of the damage done against him in his last start (vs. Colorado) came on two fluky hits. While still winless over nine starts (1-8 TSR), Eickhoff is certainly better than his record (0-5). The Reds' scoring average drops a full run per game on the road (.317 OBP), so that's good. With Philly not hitting much right now and Eickhoff likely to perform better than expected, I'm expecting runs to be few and far between in this Saturday afternoon matchup. It would obviously be great if we didn't have to play the bottom of the ninth as well. 10* Under Reds/Phillies

10* Tampa Bay (8:10 ET): The surprising Twins (in first place in the AL Central!) had the day off Thursday after an impressive sweep of Baltimore, in Camden Yards no less. But upon their return home, they'll have to deal w/ Chris Archer in this series opener w/ the Rays. Tampa Bay has been a bit streak of late, going WWWWLLLWW over its previous nine games. The last two wins, including a shutout yday, came at the Angels' expense as they were able to salvage a split of a four-game series at home. The Twins, surprisingly, have a losing record at Target Field and I see a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here. Considering I'm not a believer in Minnesota, I say go w/ Archer and the Rays in this one. 

No starter lost more units at the betting window in '16 than did Archer. But many, myself included, tabbed him for a bounce back season here in '17. Things certainly started out well for him as the team won each of his first four starts this season. But since then, they've dropped five of six w/ him on the mound. There was one bad outing (at Cleveland), but in his other three May starts his KW ratio is a sick 34-3! I expect him to pitch well here considering a 5-1 record & 1.73 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. That's his second lowest ERA against any opponent that he's faced at least five times. Here at Target Field, he's been really good w/ a 3-0 record and 0.98 ERA, which is the second lowest ERA for any pitcher w/ at least three starts in the park's history. 

I don't see Twins starter Hector Santiago matching up well here. He has a 6.90 ERA and 1.813 WHIP his L3 starts, including his own terrible outing against Cleveland. Santiago's strikeout numbers can't even compare to those of Archer as the former has just TWO total in his last two starts! Over his L4 starts, he has a NEGATIVE KW ratio of 10-11. That's terrible. Something I find interesting is that despite the Rays being "only" .500 and the Twins being seven games over, it is TB w/ the better overall run differential (+23 vs. +4). That indicates to me that Minnesota is a little lucky to be where they're at right now. They've actually been outscored by 0.7 runs per game at home so far. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Both of these teams treated me well on Thursday as I had the Mariners Under + the Red Sox, both easy winners. Seattle winning 4-2 at Washington was certainly a surprise though, given what had happened to them not just the first two games of that series, but the previous four games overall. A five-game losing skid had seen the M's get outscored by a stunning 41-5 margin by the White Sox and Nats. Therefore Boston, fresh off a sweep of Texas, has to be licking its chops here. The Red Sox offense seems to have rediscovered 2016 form w/ 38 runs scored during a four-game win streak. You have to like their chances then going up against the embattled Yovani Gallardo, whose continued presence only serves to reinforce how injured this Mariners rotation is. Seattle isn't a good road team either (8-18 away from Safeco Field).

Gallardo was absolutely bludgeoned his last time out, giving up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings. The final result was White Sox 16, Seattle 1 and that's what begat the M's losing skid. Obviously, a performance such as that will negatively skew all numbers, but the bottom line here is that Gallardo simply is not very good. He has a 5.28 career ERA vs. Boston including two poor starts (w/ Baltimore) last season. He probably shouldn't be counting on his offense for much support here either considering yday's four run output matched what they'd done the previous four games - combined. Seattle isn't just losing on the road this season, they are losing badly as is evident by the fact they're being outscored by 1.3 runs per game away from home. 

Boston will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the bump in search of his fourth straight win. Rodriguez has become something of a "stopper" in the Red Sox rotation as all of his previous eight starts have come after a team loss. His team start record is 6-2 and he's coming off six consecutive quality starts. His last one was his longest stint of the season as he went eight full innings at Oakland and allowed just three runs in an easy 12-3 win. That performance dipped his WHIP to an impressive 0.85 his L3 starts overall. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for Boston, especially w/ Craig Kimbrell, who has retired 33 of the past 34 batters he has faced and not allowed a single hit to a right-handed hitter ALL SEASON! 8* Boston

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have surprisingly handled the Rangers each of the previous two seasons, winning 14 of 21 head to head matchups and eliminating them from the postseason both times. This will be their first time meeting since last year's LDS, which ended up being a three-game sweep. Given the way that this season started, the playoffs had to be the furthest thing from Toronto's mind. But a seven-game road trip that took them through three cities, two of them National League, just ended w/ a three-game win streak. Texas, back at .500 despite recently winning 10 in a row, is heading in the other direction after being swept at Boston. I like the Jays in this series opener. 

Don't be fooled by Rangers' starter AJ Griffin having a 6-1 team start record as his ERA is 5.02 and his WHIP is 1.195. He suffered his first loss last time out when he got shelled for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings (allowed 4 HR's!) by Detroit. He only has three quality starts to his credit and so far he's gotten to face a pretty weak slate of teams (including Oakland three times!). Toronto saw its bats come alive a bit as they averaged 5.1 runs per game on the recently completed road trip. Now they need to focus on producing at home. Increasing the likelihood that will occur is the fact that both members of the right side of the team's starting infield - third baseman Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki - are expected back in the lineup for the 1st time since April. That duo being back will also aid the team in the field obviously. 

Meanwhile, Texas has some problems at the plate right now. They struck out 20 times yday in Boston and are batting a collective .218 on the road this season. That's good news for Blue Jays' starter Mike Bolsinger, who has yet to win any of his previous three trips to the mound. None of the three have been particularly good either, but I see him performing better than Griffin here. Griffin has allowed a total of seven home runs his last two starts and behind him is a Rangers' pen which has an unsightly 6.94 ERA and 1.910 WHIP on the road. 8* Toronto

8* Los Angeles (10:10 ET): Well, I sure was wrong firing on the Dodgers last night (they lost 6-1), but I'll still come back with them here, citing many of the same reasons in did in yday's analysis. They still have the best run differential in MLB (+60) and that's due in no small part to the fact they are beating opponents by an average of more than two full runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. So consider last night's result to be nothing more than an abberration. Tonight's starter Kenta Maeda owns a 0.986 WHIP at home so far, so he should be more than able to tame a Cardinals lineup which is already only batting .229 its last seven games. 

Going into last night, the Dodgers had won five of six overall and had held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 13 of the past 17 games. What happened yday was starter Rich Hill had all sorts of control issues (seven walks!) and they ran into a hot pitcher, Mike Leake. But still, no team in the National League has allowed fewer runs than this one. Maeda has a misleading ERA here at home (4.07) as his WHIP (as stated above) is 0.986. He's coming off the DL here, but over his last three starts, he has a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP. Last time out (May 10th), he was a couple of outs shy of a complete game, while holding the Pirates to just two runs and five hits.

Cardinals' pitching has also been really good of late w/ tonight's starter Michael Wacha coming off six shutout innings of four-hit ball his last time out. But the team still lost that game, 6-5, and his TSR is just 3-4. Certainly, you can't place all of the blame on Wacha for that record, but something else to consider here is that he's only pitched away from home twice this year and his WHIP is 1.50. The Dodgers are too good to drop B2B home games, something they have not done in over a month. 8* Los Angeles

8* Boston (7:10 ET): After winning 11 of its previous 12 games, the Rangers have come here to Beantown and dropped two in a row, by scores of 11-6 and 9-4. They figure to give up plenty of runs yet again in this evening's series finale given that they are turning to Nick Martinez, who I've given the lowest grade of any starter this week. Martinez comes in off a good outing and his overall numbers are by no means atrocious. But he's facing a lineup that has scored 32 runs total the last three games and his ERA/WHIP on the road this season are 5.51/1.592 respectively. So there's certainly hope here for Boston starter Drew Pomeranz, who is winless over his L3 starts. I'll call for the Red Sox to finish off a sweep here as these teams are set to trend in very opposite directions. 

Last night, the Red Sox were actually trailing 3-1 heading into the home half of the seventh inning. But that is when they exploded for seven runs, which was more than enough w/ Chris Sale still pitching. As mentioned above, this lineup is beginning to rediscover 2016 form w/ 32 runs scored over the last three games. That trend should continue here against Martinez, who hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any of his L5 starts. That likely means trouble given the major problems going on in the Rangers' bullpen right now. On the road, their relievers have posted a woeful 6.98 ERA and 1.900 WHIP this year. Last night obviously did not help in that department. This team is only 8-15 in road games so far, giving up an average of 5.2 runs per game.

It's not just Martinez and the bullpen that Texas fans need to be concerned about here. The defense has also been bad in this series. It hasn't helped that their pitchers have six wild pitches and a balk either. Current Boston hitters are batting .373 lifetime against Martinez. As for Pomeranz, while he's struggled of late, he did have six strikeouts in four innings his last time out and gave up just two runs (one earned). If this one comes down to the respective bullpens, then it's a no contest as the Red Sox relievers have posted a 2.60 ERA here at Fenway. 8* Boston

10* Under Mariners/Nationals (12:10 ET): Note the start time for this game has been moved up. That's probably just fine by the Mariners, who likely can't wait to get the hell out of D.C. after what's happened here in the Nation's Capital so far. They've been drubbed 10-1 and 5-1 by the Nats in the first two games, which is a continuation of an absolutely dreadful stretch of baseball for the M's, one that has seen them get held to just a single run in each of five consecutive losses while being outscored 41-5 overall. I get that Washington's offense leads the league in all key statistical categories, but this O/U line simply seems too high given Seattle's string of recent performances. I don't think the Nats will be able to do all the "heavy lifting" themselves here. Take the Under. 

If the M's are too have a chance here, it likely rests on the arm of starter Ariel Miranda, who in B2B starts has allowed just one run. Furthermore, he's given up just seven hits in 12 IP. Last time out, he went seven innings, allowing just one run on four hits in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox. He's also posted 17 K's over the L2 starts. Miranda has had a couple of rocky outings thus far in 2017, but overall he's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven starts. It will be very difficult for Washington to maintain some its current offensive pace and we've already started to see a bit of a decline as they're hitting a collective .231 over the past week. They've been held to eight or fewer hits in six of the past seven games. 

Gio Gonzalez enters tonight's start w/ an 0-3 team start record his L3 starts. But he's been a much different pitcher here at home where his ERA is 1.41 in five starts.The Nats' lefty will be facing a lineup that is minus it's usual DH spot and is hitting a collective .186 the L7 days. Five straight games scoring just one run is certainly not a positive development, no matter what way you slice it, and the top two hitters in the lineup (Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz) are a combined 1 for 22 lifetime against Gonzalez. Gonzalez is 6-2 w/ a 3.27 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Seattle. Aside from the opener of this series, Washington has not scored more than five runs in any game over the past week. 10* Under Mariners/Nationals

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): A sizable gap is starting to form in the National League West as three of the top four run differentials in the Senior Circuit belong to teams from this division. So too do the two worst. There's already a 7.5 game gap between the two groupings. Despite being in third place currently, the Dodgers are still my call as the West's top team. They actually have the best run differential in all of MLB (+65) thanks in large part to having allowed the fewest number of runs (165). St. Louis has allowed the second fewest number of runs in the N.L., so true to form these teams played to a 2-1 final last night, a game which featured a total of just seven hits (in 13 innings!). It's another strong looking pitching matchup tonight, but I again have to side w/ Dodger Blue as they're outscoring foes by an impressive 2.4 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine.

Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped five of six to fall from their perch in the NL Central. The way they lost last night was particularly gut-wrenching as they'd tied the game in the top half of the ninth only to still lose in extras. Even w/ Mike Leake on the bump tonight, it's highly unlikely that they will keep this Dodgers lineup in check to the degree they did last night. LA actually went 11 innings between runs, a Yasmani Grandal HR in the 1st and then the GW double by Logan Forsythe. Leake may be 8 for 8 in terms of quality starts this year, but he's facing a lineup that averages 5.6 runs per game at home. Leake has also struggled against the Dodgers in his career (4.26 ERA in 10 games), including a 5.25 ERA in a pair of games last year. I also seriously doubt he'll be able to maintain an opponents' batting average of .000 (0 for 18) w/ two outs & RISP.

The Dodgers, conversely, have won five of their last six games. In 13 of the past 17 games, they've allowed three runs or less, which is really impressive. Rich Hill is the starter tonight. Due to a blister issue, he's made only three starts in '17. His last one was the best as he allowed just one run and six hits in 5 IP w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. Unfortunately, it was a hard luck 2-1 loss that day for the Dodgers. Hill is a lefty and traditionally southpaws have been an issue for the Cardinals' (mostly) righty lineup. This season, St. Louis is just 3-6 when facing a LH starter. I just really like this Dodgers team and feel they are set to "take off." 8* LA Dodgers

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Braves pitcher Julio Teheran finished last season w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was highly misleading considering he also posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Lack of run support, more often than not, doomed him in 2016. Thus, I quickly tabbed him for a bounce back 2017. That hasn't really taken place yet as his TSR is 3-6 and his ERA/WHIP are both significantly WORSE than last year. But I'm not ready to abandon ship. Three times this year, he's held the opponent w/o an earned run. Last time out was NOT one of those occasions as he was tagged for NINE runs in just three innings by Toronto in a season-worst showing. I expect him to bounce back from that tonight, however, as Atlanta aims to make it three in a row over the Pirates. 

One of the three times Teheran didn't allow an earned run this year came against this Pirates team, back in the second start of the year. Unfortunately, he did allow two unearned runs that day and the Braves lost 6-5. That series (at PNC Park) would see the Bucs go on to sweep, but it's been a complete 180 of that so far here at Sun Trust Park. Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four game set, 5-2 and 6-5. I took them in Monday's opener and then last night featured a three-hour rain delay before a wild ninth inning which saw both teams score twice. Losing in such a fashion does no favors for the road team here as finishing up at 2 AM ET is no fun when you lose. As I said in Monday's analysis, I feel that the Braves are being underrated by the oddsmakers here as they actually have a better run differential than Pittsburgh, who is down to -36 for the year (Atlanta -19).

The Braves have actually now won 9 of 12 and what's really impressive about that is they've been w/o their best hitter, Freddie Freeman. But Matt Adams, acquired last week from St. Louis, has come in and paid dividends. He's homered twice in three games and supplied the GW hit last night. I like the offense's chances tonight against struggling Trevor Williams, who's likely to be sent packing from the rotation after this start anyway (Jameson Taillon set to returm). In four starts so far, Williams has a 6.58 ERA and 1.390. I realize Teheran has struggled in the Braves' new stadium, but he's due to improve and has a 3.00 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Pirates. Braves are the better team here and have the better starting pitcher. 10* Atlanta

10* Over White Sox/Diamondbacks (9:40 ET): After allowing only three runs in three games (all wins) against Seattle over the weekend, the White Sox got a taste of their own medicine Monday as Zack Greinke and the D'backs held them to just a single score. That was a far cry from the 24 they scored the previous two games. Surprising is that this staff ranks near the top of the A.L. in runs allowed, so w/ the loss of the DH from the lineup here, you'd likely expect more Unders like last night. But not so fast. We have two subpar starters tonight, including Dylan Covey for the White Sox, who may be the worst starter in the entire American League. Chase Field has certainly proven to be "hitter-friendly" in 2017 and that's thanks in large part to the home team. Take the Over.

The D'backs are now averaging 6.0 runs per game at home this year while batting a collective .295. They should have little difficulty here against Covey, who checks in w/ a horrible 7.64 ERA and 1.783 WHIP. Things only have continued to get worse for Covey as he has allowed a total of eight home runs his L4 starts (two each time) and only once all season has he made it past the sixth inning. Last time out, he allowed four runs in 6 IP, which sadly isn't even that bad by his poor standards. On the road this year, Covey has an ERA of 8.33 and a WHIP of 1.852. Obviously, being that he will have to come up to bat in this game, Covey will probably be on a "short leash." But that could mean trouble for a White Sox bullpen that was used heavily in last night's loss.

Arizona won't have the luxury of having Greinke on the mound again here. No, instead it will be Patrick Corbin, who has a 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP his L3 starts. One of those was a disaster at Coors Field in Colorado, but he's also allowed 4 ER in B2B starts here at home against the Mets and Pirates, two rather light-hitting ball clubs. Arizona is one of six teams in baseball whose home games are averaging at least 10 total runs per game. With two suspect starters on the hill tonight, expect that average to be topped. 10* Over White Sox/D'backs

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Not that it's time to worry (yet), but the defending American League Champions are certainly underachieving over the first two months of 2017. Following a 5-1 loss to the Reds last night, they're just 23-20 for the year and trail surprising Minnesota by one game in the Central Division. Making what happened last night all the more frustrating is the fact the Tribe was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Astros, in Houston no less. The loss came to a team that had dropped eight of nine as well. An unlikely quality start from Scott Feldman was the catalyst for Cincy last night, but the pitching matchup looks to be - squarely - in favor of Cleveland tonight. I'll call for them to bounce back behind Carlos Carrasco. 

The Reds' rotation is dead last among NL teams in both ERA and innings pitched. So Feldman's performance last night was definitely a revelation. But don't expect a repeat from tonight's starter, Amir Garrett, who sports a 5.17 ERA in seven starts. Last time out, he was charged w/ six runs in just four innings of work and it was the third time in four starts he allowed multiple home runs. As much as Cleveland has scuffled at the plate thus far, they should be able to get to a pitcher like Garrett. They've hit lefties better anyway this season. The Indians are also 0-4 in Interleague play thus far, something you would NOT expect given the AL's year to year dominance in IL play.

On the runs allowed side of the ledger, the Indians are just fine. They've allowed only 173 runs in 43 games, good enough for second best in the entire American League (trailing only Houston). His last start aside, Carrasco remains a good option to have on the mound. He still sports a 2.60 ERA and 0.884 WHIP and on the road he's been especially dominant by winning all four starts w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.675 WHIP. Carrasco left his start early, not just due to ineffectiveness, but also pectoral tightness. However, everything has checked out and he'll be working on more than a week's rest here. Expect a quality start and the better team to take care of business. 8* Cleveland

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Kansas City lost for me yday, 4-2, and the final run they gave up (in the 7th) was critical as I had them on the run line (+1.5). Now they find themselves in the opposite situation of last night as the pitching matchup is another revenge-filled affair, but this time in favor of the Yankees. Granted, the situation did not work out the way I had hoped last night, but it remains time-tested and furthermore, I think it's become quite clear that the Yanks are simply the better team here anyway. Not only are they 26-16 w/ an AL-best +57 run differential, but they're also 7-1 head to head vs. the Royals since the start of last season. KC has now fallen to 18-26 overall (6-15 on the road) w/ an AL-worst -47 run differential. So these teams are "worlds apart" right now. 

Last Thursday, the Royals were able to avoid a sweep (at home) by beating the Yankees 5-1 behind a sparkling effort from left-hander Danny Duffy, who threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out 10 batters. It marked the seventh time in nine starts that Duffy allowed 2 ER or less and what's really impressive is that he hasn't allowed a home run since his second start of the year, back on April 8th. But, as noted in yday's analysis, pitching really hasn't been the problem for the Royals this year. Offense has. They come into tonight having scored - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball while also ranking 28th in team batting average, slugging and OBP. Another issue here is that the bullpen is a lot worse on the road w/ a 6.29 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. So, unless Duffy is spectacular again, the chances of a KC win here seem slim.

The pitcher Duffy beat last Thursday was Joe Montgomery. The two match up again here. Montgomery allowed all five runs the first go-around and the team is only 1-4 his L5 starts. But as I've stressed numerous times before, it's rare for a pitcher to beat another in two straight starts. Yes, it just happened last night, but the Yankees being the far superior team had a major hand in that. The NY offense has actually gone five straight games w/ 8 or fewer hits, but I don't see that lasting, even against Duffy. This lineup averages 6.3 runs/game in the Bronx and just hit 3 HR's yday. That last start from Montgomery was easily his worst of '17, so I see him bouncing back as opponents are batting just .216 w/ RISP against him. 10* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. I had success w/ Atlanta in their last series, going 2-0 on or against them. I played them (on the RL) Friday when they sought revenge for a prior three-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals and they ended up winning that game "outright," 7-4. In position to "return the favor" (sweep) on Sunday, I then played AGAINST them as they fell 3-2. This is yet another series where they'll be looking to avenge an early season sweep. The Pirates won all three games against the Braves at PNC Park in early April, two of them coming by a one-run margin. But the Bucs not a good ballclub by any means, so I see Atlanta doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight.  

Pittsburgh is favored on the money line here for just one reason and that reason is Gerrit Cole is starting. In fairness, it's pretty criminal that he comes in w/ only a 4-5 team start record given his 2.84 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. He's made eight consecutive quality starts. But the issue for Cole has been a lack of run support; prior to his last outing (6-1 win over Washington), the offense had scored three runs or less for him five straight times. This Pittsburgh team is no longer to be feared as they actually check in w/ a worse run differential (-32) than Atlanta (-23) and the offensive numbers have been downright brutal. Only the Giants and Padres have scored fewer runs among NL teams and they are 29th in both team batting average and slugging as well.

The Braves are still adjusting to life in their new home park, but are now at least 8-10 here. Pittsburgh has an 8-15 record on the road this season, so again they're shaky with the minus in front of them on the ML. They're also 0-6 on Mondays this year, for whatever that's worth. Back to back home wins (over the Phillies) really doesn't impress me and yday's 1-0 win is a result that would equal a win for us w/ how we're playing this one. The Braves have still won 7 of 10 overall and will give them baseball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is off B2B quality starts himself. Going back further, we find Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his past seven starts. He is more than capable of keeping this one close. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Royals +1.5. Admittedly, it's not the greatest spot for KC here. They come off a doubleheader Sunday (split w/ Twins) and are facing a Yankees team that sports the American League's second best run differential. But the Yanks were on the verge of getting swept before yday's win in Tampa Bay and this is a revenge spot for Royals starter Jason Vargas, who goes against Michael Pineda a second straight time tonight. Last week, New York took two of three at Kansas City w/ Vargas really struggling in his outing. But despite that, he still has better YTD numbers compared to Pineda (surprised?) and I don't see him and his team doing worse than a one-run loss here. 

Last Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium vs. the Yanks, Vargas allowed six runs in just four innings of work, easily his worst outing of the season so far. In fact, he came into that start having allowed just one run in his previous 19 IP (15 inning scoreless streak)! In four different starts this year, Vargas has gone at least six innings w/o allowing a single earned run. The six runs allowed in last week's start more than doubled the number he'd allowed in his previous seven starts combined (5) yet his ERA still remains the second best among all AL starters. Yes, I'm well aware that the last start was a continuation of some poor career numbers against New York, but the team in Pinstripes comes into the series having dropped 7 of its last 11, so this is a good time to fade them.

The revenge angle in play here is also one of my favorites. It's hard to beat the same pitcher two times in a row. It's not like Pineda pitched all that great last Wednesday either; he allowed four runs and gave up two home runs. His career numbers against the Royals include a 4-5 record and 3.95 ERA. The triumvirate of Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are a combined 22 of 58 against him w/ four home runs. I'll call for the Royals, Vargas in particular, to do a lot better this go around. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* Run Line Detroit (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. They snapped the Rangers' 10-game win streak yday (won 9-3) behind a dominant effort from Justin Verlander, who allowed just four hits over seven innings (did allow three runs). In reality, the game was over after the home half of the 1st inning when the Tigers connected on back to back to back solo HR's to take a 3-0 lead. They do have to face Yu Darvish tonight, but that creates an opportunity where the run line is now in play. Texas may have just won 10 in a row, but all that's gotten them to is two games above the proverbial Mendoza Line (.500) and I maintain that this is a regression team in 2017. Expect the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss Sunday night.

Starting here for Detroit is Matt Boyd, who admittedly has not pitched well of late. Well, to be specific, he's coming off a very rough outing, one where he allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings against Baltimore. Prior to that, he'd tossed three consecutive quality starts and had not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous six starts. Keep in mind that the Rangers are still only 7-13 on the road w/ a paltry .205 team batting average. After being favored in the first two games of this series, this is a good value tonight on the Tigers. 

Darvish has been mostly dominant this season, his last start in particular. But he's also gotten to face both Philadelphia and San Diego, two terrible National League teams, in his home park the L2 starts. If there is an issue I see w/ Darvish, it's the question of durability. Just two years removed from Tommy John surgery, he's at 58 2/3 IP already in 2017 after throwing just 100 1/3 innings in '16. He's thrown at least 95 pitches in all but one start this year w/ a high of 125 (!). How long can he keep this pace up? The Tigers are a team that can put plenty of runs on the board (5.3 per game at home) and they project to be a lot more prolific as long as J.D. Martinez stays in the lineup. He's now homered in six of the eight games he's played this year, including yday. Something else to remember here is that the Texas bullpen has generally been terrible, especially on the road. As maligned as Detroit's pen has been this year, Rangers' relievers have a higher WHIP and the numbers on the road are far worse than the Tigers' at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Unlike Cincinnati (whom the Cubs swept earlier this week), Milwaukee seems to have emerged as a worthy challenge for the throne in the National League Central. The Brew Crew currently lead the division w/ a 25-18 record and their +34 run differential would seem to indicate that record is no fluke. Battling through rain, they took Friday's series opener here at Wrigley, 6-3, for their fourth straight victory (Saturday rained out). But I like the Cubs to bounce back today w/ Jake Arrieta on the mound, even though the former Cy Young winner has NOT been his usual dominant self so far in 2017. But counterpart Chase Anderson has struggled recently as well and I still believe what I said during the Reds series (had Chicago every game!) and that's order is soon likely to be restored in the NL Central. 

Arrieta's start to the season was emblematic of how he's pitched throughout his tenure w/ the Cubs. He was 2-0 w/ a 2.89 ERA after three starts, but then in his last five, he's posted a 7.27 ERA and won just once. However, that one win did come here at the "Friendly Confines" as he held the Phillies to only three runs in 6 IP back on May 3rd. He's had some tough assignments recently, having to pitch at both Coors Field and Busch Stadium his L2 starts. Throughout his career, Arrieta has seemed to have the Brewers' number, posting a 3.00 ERA in 13 starts. That includes a win earlier this season where he limited them to three runs on three hits in seven innings of work. He also recorded a season high 10 K's in that game. 

Milwaukee might be a "better team" now than they were when they lost to Arrieta back in early April, but they dropped two of three to the Cubs in both previous series this year. It's been a long time since Anderson received a decision and a big reason for that is he's simply not going very deep into games. Only once all season has he lasted more than six innings. That was way back on April 12th. He has a 6.13 ERA and 1.977 WHIP his last three starts and last time out, the team ended up losing to lowly San Diego. I project a big day at the plate for the Cubs Sunday afternoon. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Washington (1:35 ET): When I took Atlanta (on the run line) Friday, I never thought they'd be in the position they now find themselves in coming into Sunday. That would be having a chance to "return the favor" against the Nationals for a three-game sweep suffered last month. Not only did the Braves end up winning for me Friday, 7-4, but they also beat Max Scherzer yday 5-2 thanks to hitting three home runs! Making these consecutive wins all the more unlikely is that they've coincided w/ the loss of the team's best hitter, Freddie Freeman, for the forseeable future. They've now hit SIX home runs in this series and will welcome Matt Adams (acquired in trade w/ St. Louis) into the lineup today. But I don't see this power surge continuing and beating Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in consecutive days seems unlikely. Go with the Nats.

The Nats have now lost four in a row going back to the series in Pittsburgh. They've given up far too many runs during this time (28!), but that's where Strasburg comes in. Every start but one has been quality this year and he's generally owned Atlanta in his career (6-1, 2.33 ERA L8 starts). Earlier this year, Strasburg faced them on the road and allowed just two runs and six hits in seven innings of work. He also struck out a season-best 10 batters. Most importantly, he didn't give a HR there. For the year, he's allowed just four, which is what the Nats need right now as their staff has allowed NINE during this four-game losing streak.

Four-game losing streak aside, I still fully expect Washington to run away w/ the NL East this year. No other team in the division is currently above .500. Atlanta is actually their closest competition, but remains six games back. The Braves have struggled in their first year playing at SunTrust Park, giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game. Speaking of former Cardinals, today's starter Jaime Garcia is one. He's allowed four runs in B2B starts and has more walks (14) than strikeouts (11) his L3 starts, which is never a good sign. This will be just Garcia's second start at the Braves' new stadium, so no edge there. His first came against lowly San Diego, so there's little takeaway from that. The current losing skid is the Nats' longest of the season, but MLB's top offense in runs scored, batting average and slugging should get to Garcia. 8* Washington

10* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Padres have been surprisingly competitive against the D'backs so far in 2017, taking three of the seven games that have been played thus far (all in April). But that record nor the price range listed by the oddsmakers here is indicative of the rather giant chasm that exists between these two NL West rivals. Especially when San Diego has arguably the worst starter in the entire National League going tonight. That would be Jered Weaver, who has been every bit as bad "as advertised." On a similar note, the Padres have sunk to the bottom of the MLB standings w/ a 15-28 record and have now been outscored by 72 runs (also a MLB worst) thus far. An additional edge for Arizona here (not they needed one) is that they had Thursday off while SD did not.

Following a three-game sweep of the Mets (at home), the D'backs are now 24-18 w/ a run differential of +34. Among National League teams, only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Expect that differential to continue growing this weekend.  An offense that is already one of the most prolific in the sport (top 8 in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) now gets to face the terrible Weaver, who is winless in eight starts (0-8 TSR) w/ a 6.05 ERA and 1.344 WHIP. He does come off - easily - his best start of the year as he held the White Sox to one run in six innings. But at home, he's been a disaster w/ a 9.69 ERA and 1.769 WHIP. His previous two outings here at Petco have seen him allow a total of 17 runs in just seven innings of work! He didn't fare too well pitching at Arizona earlier in the year either; allowing five runs in 5 2/3 IP. His signing in the offseason was much maligned and now we see why. His velocity continues to be way down and strikeout numbers are virtually non-existent.

The D'backs will counter here w/ Taijuan Walker, who in contrast has been an excellent addition to the rotation. Ironically enough, Walker's best start of 2017 to date came opposite Weaver back on April 27th. He went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits while striking out 11 batters. The Padres lineup managed all of five runs total in three straight losses to Milwaukee. They are dead last in both team batting average and OBP, not to mention 28th in runs scored and 26th in slugging. This series, particularly tonight's opener, shapes up as a complete mismatch. 10* Arizona