8* Run Line San Francisco (10:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. Now taking the two worst teams in baseball in the same package might seem problematic to some, but like the Padres (see above), the Giants have the advantage of having had yday off and a starting pitcher that will give them an excellent shot to win. Plus, this game is in San Francisco where the G-Men are infinitely better than they are on the road. Meanwhile, the opposite could be said for Arizona, who averages about 1.5 runs fewer per game on the road than they do at home. This is a revenge spot for San Fran as they were swept in Arizona late last month. Two of those losses came by one run. Furthermore, before that sweep, the Giants had split the first 10 games vs Arizona here in 2017. Take the +1.5 here. 

Jeff Samardzija certainly gives SF an excellent shot to win here. He has an excellent 0.791 WHIP his L3 starts (2.94 ERA) even after a rough showing his last time out. That came in an American League park, however, so I can forgive that. His L3 starts vs. NL teams have seen him allow just 2 ER in 22 IP including a CG shutout vs. San Diego on 8.28. Samardzija did not pitch in the last series vs. Arizona. He has faced the D'backs a total of three times in 2017 and while he lost the first two, those were back in April (1st two starts of the year). He's since beaten them, here at home, by allowing just 3 ER in 6 1/3 IP. He was basically even money on the ML in that start, so by that measure, there's some decent value here. The Giants obviously haven't been very good this year (a 100-loss season is a real possibility), but w/ Samardzija on the hill tonight, this sets up as a good "ambush" spot. 

Arizona shut Colorado out yday 7-0 to earn a split of that four-game series. Thanks to a 13-game win streak (which started the same day as Cleveland's ongoing 22-game streak), the D'backs' playoff position should now be considered "safe" as they almost certainly will be hosting the NL Wild Card Game. I give them a great shot at "making some noise" come playoff time, but since that 13-game winning streak ended, they're just 3-4 and all those games were at home. As noted above, this team is nowhere near as dominant on the road. In fact, they're barely above .500 away from Chase Field. Robbie Ray (starts tonight) is an excellent #2 starter and has displayed tremendous form of late w/ a 0.737 WHIP and 36 K's his L3 starts. But tonight is not a good spot for him and his team. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Diego (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Padres +1.5. This marks a rare endorsement of a club I've rightfully been quite critical of all season. I've gone so far as to say San Diego is the worst team in all of baseball and their -162 run differential backs that assertion up. Not even a visit to an American League park (where they get to use the DH) could wake up an offense that ranks 30th in runs scored, batting average and OBP. They scored just 1 run in a two-game sweep at Minnesota, but perhaps a visit to always hitter-friendly Coors Field might do the trick. The Padres have revenge here after being swept by the Rockies in the first series after the All-Star Break. They've got the advantage tonight though in starting pitching and due to the fact they had Thursday off (Colorado did not). Take the +1.5. 

  Colorado currently holds the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. They are 2.5 games up on their only competition, Milwaukee and St. Louis. Their last series started well w/ them taking the first two games at Arizona, but then they lost the L2 days, including a 7-0 shutout yday. While a 6-2 road trip has to be considered a success, I don't like them here as they send Tyler Chatwood to the bump. Chatwood has not pitched well in Denver this year, posting a 2-6 record in 10 starts w/ a 6.36 ERA and 1.758 WHIP. While he hasn't allowed a single run in two September starts, note that he's lasted only a combined eight innings and got to face the 29th ranked offense (Giants) and pitch in the #1 venue for run suppression (Dodgers Stadium). He's not pitched that well against San Diego in his career (4.41 ERA in 10 starts) or this year, for that matter (4.82 ERA in three starts). By the way, the Rockies have lost 10 of their last 15 home games.

San Diego has the edge in that they were off Thursday while Colorado was finishing the series in Arizona. There's no sugarcoating what happened to the Padres on Tuesday (lost 16-0!), but they came back and played the Twins tough Wednesday, losing 3-1 in 10 innings. Offense is obviously a concern w/ this team, but pitching should not be, at least tonight w/ Clayton Richard on the mound. Richard will be working on seven days' rest here and has a 2.96 ERA his L7 starts. Last time out, he threw six shutout innings, beating St. Louis. In fact, the Padres have won five of the last six times Richard has taken the mound. As for the offense, getting the additional 1.5 runs will help and last time they played here at Coors Field, they scored 17 runs in the three games. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5)

8* Run Line Seattle (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mariners at +1.5. We are starting to see more teams "drop out" of what has been a very interesting race for the second Wild Card in the American League. It wasn't that long ago that we had seven teams separated by less than three games. But several seem to be dropping out (KC, Baltimore, TB and Texas) and with pole sitter Minnesota playing well right now, they now have a three-game edge over the field. One team that's not going away though is Seattle. The M's have won three in a row (all against Texas) and sit 3.5 gms back of the Twins. Only two teams, the Twins (obviously) and Angels, are ahead of them as they get set to begin this very important series in Houston. 

The Astros have been a below .500 team since the All-Star Break. It once seemed like a formality that they would own homefield advantage in the AL half of the playoff draw, but insanely hot Cleveland has passed them and now it's looking like they'll have to face the AL East winner (Red Sox or Yankees) in the Divsion Series. After being swept in Oakland last weekend, the 'Stros wrapped up a 10-game road trip by taking two of three from the Angels (helped Seattle!). But I'm not ready to call this team "out of the woods" yet as they'd scored all of five runs in four games prior to yday's 5-2 win. Tonight's starter Charlie Morton has not made it past the fifth innings in any of his L3 outings and he lost here at home to the Mariners (gave up 4 runs) back on 7.19. He's winless in three tries vs. Seattle this year, posting a 4.58 ERA. 

This is the second time these division rivals have met in September. Houston swept a three-game series in Seattle, so that puts the revenge angle in play here. Simply put, it's difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row (unless you're the Indians!). The Mariners are getting James Paxton back for tonight's series opener, which is huge. Paxton, who has been out a month, has been their most reliable starter this season. Incredibly, he has not allowed more than 3 ER in a start dating back to June 16th (span of 10 starts). He has had Houston's number in the past, particularly this season. In seven career starts against them, his ERA is 2.86. But this year, he's 2-0 w/ a 0.45 ERA! Two of Seattle's five wins over Houston this year have come w/ Paxton starting. He's given up all of 1 ER to them in 20 IP! Houston has a losing record vs. LH starters this year (18-21) and w/ Seattle having played 39 one-run games this year (26-13), I seem them doing no worse than one-run loss here. The offense has tallied 28 runs in the L3 games. 8* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): As you may have read elsewhere, the idea of the Twins going from an 100+ loss season (were 59-103 in '16) to the playoffs now has to be taken as a real possibility. Thanks in large part to Monday's 16-0 win over the Padres, Minny now has a positive run differential (something they couldn't claim much of the year), thereby justifying their 76-69 record that has them currently in position to nab the American League's 2nd Wild Card berth. They stayed two games up on the Angels by beating the Padres again last night, albeit in much closer fashion (3-1 in 10 innings). Now they'll welcome in the last place Blue Jays and like the last series, the oddsmakers don't seem to be giving the Twins their proper respect.

Going into yday, Toronto was thinking sweep as they had beaten Baltimore each of the previous two days. But both wins were of the one-run variety and Tuesday's required a two-run rally in the ninth. Therefore, I wasn't too surprised to see the Blue Jays fail in their effort to sweep the O's as they lost 2-1 last night. The Jays are out of contention and starting Brett Anderson on the road tonight, so I have little faith in them, especially considering the way the offense has failed to produce lately. Anderson has a 5.90 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in nine starts and must deal w/ a Twins lineup that leads all of MLB in home runs since August 8th. The Jays are also just 29-42 on the road this year and 14-33 L47 as a +125 to +175 road dog.

From the Twins perspective, I really like tonight's pitching matchup as they'll go w/ Jose Berrios, who has been their 2nd best starter (behind Santana) this year. Berrios allowed just two runs in 7 IP his last time out, though the team still lost 5-2 at Kansas City. I expect a much better end result here, needless to say. Berrios did not face Toronto when these teams met late last month, but based on that series, he should expect plenty of support tonight. Minnesota hitters hammered Toronto pitching to the tune of 22 runs in three games and their only loss was a 10-9 affair. Berrios has been lights out at Target Field this year, taking a 2.54 ERA and 0.878 WHIP (nice!) into this game. So it should not be a surprise then to find his TSR at home is 8-1. Make it 9-1 after tonight. 10* Minnesota

6* Boston (1:35 ET): Oakland has won six of seven, including last night, so now would seem like an opportune time to fade. I've played against them both games in this series so far and while last night obviously didn't go as I'd planned, the bottom line is the A's are a MLB-worst 22-48 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.6 rpg. A big four-run 1st inning was the difference last night, but that's something that cannot be counted on a daily basis. Even w/ the win yday, the A's are still only 2-7 in 2017 when pushed beyond +175 on the money line on the road and they're 8-22 in that role the L3 seasons. Conversely, the Red Sox are 14-3 this season as ML home faves of -175 to -250 and 41-12 in that range the L3 seasons. Expect a rout on Getaway Day at Fenway. 

Drew Pomeranz is having a career year for Boston due in large part to his success here at Fenway. Going back to June 16th, Pomeranz is 9-1 w/ a 2.16 ERA (16 starts, 12-4 TSR) and all year he's been particularly dominant at home, going 8-2 w/ a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts (11-3 TSR). He's actually the last pitcher to beat Cleveland as on 8.23 Pomeranz outdueled Corey Kluber and took home the cash as a +165 dog on the ML. Last time out, he was a slight favorite against Chris Archer and Tampa Bay and delivered six strong innings. He allowed two runs on two hits while striking out seven. The Rays didn't score off him until the fifth. Considering that as a team, Oakland is batting just .236 on the road this year, I expect a quality start here from Pomeranz.

The A's will be going w/ a rookie in this spot, Daniel Gossett. Despite a strong effort his last time out, Gossett still has a 5.02 ERA and 1.526 WHIP this year (14 starts) to go along w/ a 5-9 TSR. He's backed by a bullpen whose numbers are no better when away from home (5.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). In fact, the bullpen is another big edge for Boston here. Gossett did allow just one run on five hits Saturday against Houston (A's won 11-1!), but I'm not anticipating a repeat as the offense is due to slow down now that the team has hit the road. Both of these clubs came into yday having won five of six. The A's may have won yday, but the Red Sox are clearly the better team and many times you get a poor effort from the road team on Getaway Day. 6* Boston

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this play stands despite Houston changing pitchers, from Lance McCullers Jr to Michael Fiers. However, because of the change, it is likely we will no longer be able to grab the Angels at +1.5 (they are now ML favorites), so the play is now on them to win straight up. Last night, I cashed the Halos on the run line in a 1-0 loss. The Astros scored the game's lone run in the 2nd inning and then Justin Verlander took it from there, allowing just one hit over eight innings. While not a killer, the loss certainly hurt the Angels as they're now two games back of the Twins (who won 16-0 yday!) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Twins losing tonight to San Diego seems unlikely, so the home team really does need a win in the worst way here. I'll bank on that happening. 

This series marks a return home for the Angels, who were coming off a nine-game road trip, all against division opponents. They went just 4-5 w/ six of the nine contests decided either by one run or in extra innings. Last night marked another one-run loss as the team has now played 45 one-run games this year, second most in the A.L. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Skaggs to right the ship. I gave Skaggs a significant edge over McCullers and it's interesting to note that the oddsmakers preferred McCullers to Fiers. That probably has something to do w/ the fact Fiers has allowed a total of 14 ER his L2 starts, ugly outings that both took place at home. Last time out, the offense bailed Fiers out in an 8-6 win over the sorry Mets, thereby preventing what would have been an embarrassing loss as -255 money line favorites. Though they won yday, the Astros are by no means "out of the woods" yet. This has been a sub-.500 team since the All-Star Break and they were swept by last place Oakland over the weekend.

Skaggs had endured his own rough patch before tossing a quality start his last time out. The Angels may have still lost (3-1 at Oakland), but it was nice to see the pitcher go six innings and allow just three runs w/ 9 K's (tied season-high). Skaggs did start in an Angels win over the Astros here at home back in August. Among division foes, Skaggs' ERA against Houston in the lowest. Meanwhile, Fiers' career ERA vs. LA is just 4.44 in seven starts. Houston has a losing record against left-handed starters this year and has manged only four runs in the last three games (.211 batting average L7 games). 10* LA Angels

6* Boston (7:10 ET): In yday's analysis, I discussed the idea of fading bad teams at their "apex," or more succinctly stated "choosing the right time to play against these known losers." Well, in the case of the A's, we did just that. Tuesday saw them fall 11-1 here in Boston as a powerful trend continued. Oakland was off a four-game sweep of Houston over the weekend, but as noted here yday, every time the A's have swept a series this year, they've gone out and lost the opener of the next series. Also discussed was the stark home vs. road splits for the AL West cellar dwellers. While competitive at the O.co Coliseum (42-33), they are borderline horrendous on the road as not only do they have a 21-48 record (MLB worst), but they're getting outscored by 1.6 rpg (also MLB worst). Add in the fact they are 1-7 this season when pushed above +175 on the ML (on the road) and I see no reason why they aren't likely to be buried again here at Fenway Park. 

The Red Sox now have a four-game lead over the Yankees (who lost yday) in the AL East. Whether or not they lock up the division, this is going to be a playoff team regardless as it is clearly one of the four top teams in the American League. Not that they necessarily needed it, but Boston has what looks to be a sizable advantage in starting pitching for Wednesday. Doug Fister has a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts, all of them quality, as he's given up just four runs on 13 hits in 21 IP. Since David Price went down, Fister has picked up the slack w/ a 2.79 ERA and 0.993 WHIP, so the run of excellence is actually more sustained than just the last three starts. While he's gotten off to some shaky starts of late (all 4 runs allowed in the L3 starts have come in the 1st inning), Fister has held opposing hitters to an .072 batting average (6 for 83!) from the second inning on. He also has a 2.88 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Oakland. 

While recent form has clearly been better than the overall season numbers for Fister, there's nothing in terms of recent or overall form to suggest Oakland starter Jharel Cotton will outduel him here. Cotton has allowed 3 HR's in B2B starts, a terrible sign when getting set to face this Boston lineup. Despite allowing 7 runs in 5 innings, he was bailed out by the offense last time out, but I wouldn't look for that to happen again. In six of his last eight starts, Cotton has given up at least four runs while not making it past the sixth inning. For the season, he now has a 5.90 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts. Getting back to the price range, the Red Sox are 14-2 this year when priced between -175 and -250 at home and 41-11 in that same range the last three seasons. 6* Boston

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. Critical series for the Halos here as they trail the Twins by one game in the chase for the AL's second Wild Card and are seemingly drawing the Astros at a most opportune time. Houston's 2017 trajectory may not be quite as pronounced as that of the Dodgers, but it's similar in the sense that after dominating their league most of the year, they're clearly in a tailspin right now. In fact, the Astros have already ceded homefield advantage to the insanely hot Indians thanks to a sub-.500 second half of the season. This is their third straight series on the road, all out on the West Coast, while the Angels are returning home after their own nine-game trip through the division. I say the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Angels went 4-5 on the recently completed trip and virtually every game was competitive. Six of the nine contests were decided either by one run or in extra innings. The team has now played 44 one-run games this season, 2nd most in the American League, and has won 25 of them. This has been a better team at home (no surprise) and they ar 17-5 this year in Tuesday games. Tonight marks a special occasion for starter Garrett Richards as it will be his 1st time starting in Anahem since April of last season due to a torn elbow ligament. His comeback began last week against Oakland, the same team he faced in his only other start of 2017 (back in April). For what it's worth, the Angels have won both Richards' starts thanks in large part to him allowing only one run in 8 IP.

Houston has been MLB's best road team much of the year, but they got hammered over the weekend in Oakland, losing the final three games by a combined score of 32-7. As mentioned earlier, this has been a sub-.500 team since the All-Star Break. Questions with starting rotation led them to acquire Justin Verlander from Detroit and he was lights out in his first start for them, allowing just one run in a win over Seattle last week. But, overall, Verlander has NOT pitched well on the road this season as is evident by his 5-11 team start record there. As a member of the Tigers, he lost his only start to the Angels this season by giving up four runs and five walks back in May. When these teams met here in Anaheim at the end of August, the Astros did take two of three, but two of the games were decided by one run as have five of the 13 meetings this year. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have won seven of eight (swept Pittsburgh over the weekend, which has them only two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.5 back of the Rockies for the second Wild Card. They now own their division's best run differential (+74), but all of this will be for naught if they can't take care of business this week at home against the hapless Reds. Somewhat shockingly, the Redbirds are only 5-8 against this particular division rival here in 2017 and that's clearly cost them. But w/ nothing but division games the rest of the way, including two series w/ Cincinnati, the Cards clearly control their own destiny and I see them starting this three-game set with a dominant win behind Lance Lynn, who is well overdue for a victory. 

Lynn has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts, but that's grossly unfair. Four of the five starts have been quality ones w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer and he has a 1.29 ERA/1.095 WHIP in the last three. In fact, Lynn has actually been one of the National League's best pitchers in 2017. In addition to ranking in the top 10 in both ERA and WHIP, he's allowed the third fewest walks and opponents are batting only .213 off him, one of the 10 lowest averages in all of MLB! Lynn is 10-4 w/ a 3.06 ERA in 20 career appearances vs. the Reds, 17 of them starts. St. Louis pitching has been awesome of late, holding opponents to just 1.7 rpg over the last week and a .217 BA. The Reds may have scored 10 runs in Sunday's win over the Mets, but that was only after totaling four in the previous three games. 

Reds starter Robert Stephenson has the opposite TSR of Lynn (5-0!) his L5 starts, but despite the disparate records, Lynn is clearly the superior pitcher in this matchup. Stephenson has posted a 1.585 WHIP his L3 outings, a sign that he's been lucky and had control issues. He was able to overcome five walks his last time out, but tonight marks the 1st time in nearly a month he's had to start on the road where the Reds are just 26-45 for the year, including 2-10 as a ML dog of +175 or higher (13-38 L3 seasons). So, the superior team has the edge in starting pitching tonight and is playing at home where they've gone 49-22 as a ML favorite of -175 or higher the L3 seasons. 8* St. Louis

8* Boston (7:10 ET): Oakland comes into Beantown fresh off a sweep another first place team (Houston), but that took place at home. As discussed here many times over, the A's can be a competitive bunch in their home park (42-33 record!), but it's a far different story on the road where they are baseball's worst at 21-47 (outscored by 1.5 rpg). Case in point, back in May we saw them take three of four from the Red Sox at O.co Coliseum. Expect things to go much differently this week at Fenway Park where the home team had won four in a row before losing Sunday. Boston has the Yankees hot on their heels in the AL East, so this is a series they'd certainly like to sweep. Tonight things look good as not only are they 14-2 as a home fave of -175 to -250 this season; they are 41-11 in that range the L3 seasons! 

Oakland dominated Houston, winning the last three games by a combined score of 32-7. Sometimes, the key to playing against these also-ran teams is to properly identify when they are at their peak and then fade accordingly. I think we're at that point with the A's right now. Their current five-game win streak matches a season-high, previously set back in April when they took five in a row from the Mariners and Rangers, all at home. Following that win streak, they would hit the road and were promptly swept by the Angels. At no point this season have the A's followed a series sweep w/ another victory! They hope Sean Manaea can reverse that trend tonight, but I don't see it happening as Manaea was destroyed in his only previous start at Fenway (allowed 8 runs in 2 2/3 IP!). Only half of his 26 starts this season have been quality and in his L7 starts overall he has a 6.23 ERA and 1.912 WHIP. True to his team's form, Manaea's TSR on the road is just 5-8.

It's been awhile since Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been able to record a winning decision. His last one came all the way back in May, but that's very misleading as he's off a strong start (allowed only 2 ER in 6 IP) against Toronto, a game the Red Sox won 3-2. Rodriguez was a -190 favorite on the ML there, so by comparison this price certainly looks like a bargain. It's a weaker opponent, one that has been one of the AL's bottom two teams basically all season long. For whatever reason, Tuesday has been a good day for Boston this year as they are 18-2 in games played on the second day of the week. Oakland is just 15-32 the L3 seasons when playing w/ a day off including 5-11 this season. 8* Boston

8* Run Line Colorado (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Rockies at +1.5. This series marks a potential preview of the NL Wild Card Game. Arizona has greatly improved its playoff positioning in the last two weeks by winning 14 of their last 16 (both losses to San Diego!) and will likely host said Wild Card matchup. Colorado's current position is a little more precarious (three game lead over StL/Milwaukee), although they did just help themselves immensely by sweeping a four-game series from the Dodgers over the weekend. Sweeping the Dodgers is something that the D'backs have done themselves (twice!) during their 14-2 run, but the primary reason they find themselves five games up on the Rockies right now is they swept them (in Coors Field) to start September. This is the Rockies shot at revenge and I believe - despite facing Zack Greinke - they'll do no worse than a one-run defeat here. 

Arizona was bound to cool off, but losing twice to San Diego (here at home!) over the weekend surprised me. They avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep w/ a one-run win yday, which was their sixth win by one run or in extra innings since the winning streak began. Certainly, they are a tough team to beat when Greinke pitches here at Chase Field (14-2 team start record). But one of those two losses did come against Colorado, back in April, with Greinke allowing three home runs. Overall, it's a 2-2 TSR for Greinke vs. the Rockies in '17. While Colorado's offense predictably tails off outside of Coors Field, they did just average 7.0 rpg at Dodger Stadium over the weekend and that's a place that was #1 in run suppression for visitors this season. Chase Field is a "hitter's park" and giving a lineup like the Rockies an additional 1.5 runs seems like a smart play.

The Rockies have now won six straight on the road. They've won six of seven overall and really need to perform well in this series in order to preserve their precarious spot as the NL's 2nd Wild Card. Both St. Louis and Milwaukee are at home to start the week w/ favorable matchups. Kyle Freeland gets the start Monday and while he's 0-3 in six starts since August 1st, he really hasn't pitched as poorly as the numbers seem to indicate. He hasn't allowed a HR in three consecutive outings and he still has an 8-3 TSR on the road this year. I'm a firm believer in the revenge angle here and w/ five straight losses to the D'backs, it's about time the Rockies broke through with a win. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5)

6* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): It's difficult to refer to September as the "fall" of the Dodgers, simply because they haven't really lost anything tangible. Sure, they've gone from #1 to #2 in run differential (Cleveland), but they're still in first place in the NL West (by 10 games) and still hold the keys to home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In many ways, this stunning stretch of losing (1-14 L15, nine straight) only puts in perspective how "other-worldly" the team had performed much of the season. Consider that their previous 14 losses took place over a 72-game span! They remain 52-22 at home, so the idea of them suffering a four-game sweep here at Chavez Ravine would mark a new nadir. That's what Dodger Blue is up against Sunday and I think they avoid the fate. 

Colorado has greatly improved its own playoff chances by coming in and taking the first three games of this series. They won the opener 9-1 against Clayton Kershaw as +255 ML underdogs. Since then, it's been a pair of one-run victories, each coming at higher than +200 on the ML. This is now the longest road win streak for the Rockies (5 games) since early June. They came into the series sporting a losing record away from Coors Field and as per usual, that can be pinned on offensive decline as they average just 4.3 rpg. That ranks them 25th in all of MLB in runs scored per game on the road. The only teams below them are those well out of playoff contention. So that's something to consider moving forward. As for the pitching side of the ledger, Sunday starter Tyler Chatwood comes in sporting an ugly 11.43 ERA and 2.194 WHIP his L3 starts. Admittedly, there's been roughly a month in between each of them (as he's worked out of the bullpen most of the 2nd half), but still ... expect him to be on a tight pitch count, thereby "exposing" the Rockies' somewhat shaky bullpen. 

This is the longest home losing streak for the Dodgers (8 games) in 30 years. It's their longest overall losing skid since 1992. They've lost five consecutive series for the first time since '07. While they were certainly due for a "market correction," this has gone above and beyond that. Rich Hill starts today and despite an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, he sports an outstanding 0.696 WHIP during that time. His last start saw the Dodgers lose 13-0, but Hill allowed only two runs in 6 IP. His previous home start before that was one of the more hard-luck decisions in recent memory as he took a no-hit bit into the ninth, yet came away w/ a 1-0 loss (in 10 innings) to Pittsburgh. Hill and the Dodgers will redeem themselves Sunday. 6* LA Dodgers

    

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Angels just took two of three in Oakland to start the week, but despite winning the series, they did not play all that well. They were outhit in each of the first two games, both wins that required extra innings. Then they dropped the finale, 3-1 on Wednesday (I had Oakland). Speaking of not playing well, Seattle was just swept by Houston here at home. Ironically, the one opponent they played well against was Oakland, who they swept in the series before that. But overall they've dropped 8 of 11 and seen their playoff chances take a real "hit." It also didn't help when they were swept in a four-game series by the Angels, here at home, last month. I know I'm on record as saying the Halos will get that 2nd Wild Card in the American League, but the revenge angle here is strong and I just can't see the Mariners losing a fifth straight home game to their division rival.

Starting pitching is the big question mark w/ this Angels team and Ricky Nolasco getting the nod in this spot should certainly not inspire anyone. Nolasco has a 4.85 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 28 starts this year (10-18 TSR) and those numbers get slightly worse when he pitches on the road. He's coming off three consecutive no-decisions, two of them ended up being wins for the Angels (both vs. Texas). A big problem is that since the All-Star Break, Nolasco has pitched past the sixth inning only one time. So when you hear that he hasn't lost since July, take that w/ a grain of salt. He has a 4.07 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year and a 4.36 ERA in nine career starts against them. Last time, he gave up five runs in five innings. That was in this ballpark.

The Mariners desperately need to win (or even sweep) this series as they are four back of Minnesota right now. They'll hand the ball to Mike Leake, who they just acquired from St. Louis. While he's only 8-12 for the year w/ a pedestrian ERA and WHIP, Leake was sensational in his Seattle debut last weekend, allowing just two runs in 7 IP in a 3-2 win over Oakland. I'll be counting on a similar effort from him tonight. But the bottom line is that this one boils down to the revenge angle as it's simply too hard in the modern game to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, both on the road no less. The M's are a desperate team right now and will get a critical win this evening. 10* Seattle

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I played against the Cardinals yday, but will jump right back on them today. I don't think yday's shutout loss was all that damning, though it does leave them three games back of the Rockies in the Wild Card chase as well as five back of the Cubs in the NL Central. The Redbirds did take the first three games in San Diego and now find themselves back at home w/ a hot pitcher starting. They're also 3-1 this year coming off a shutout loss. As for the Pirates, well, it's all over but the shouting for them. They did split four games w/ the Cubs to start the week, but they lost the last two (8-2 yday) and they're way back in the playoff hunt. This series could very well "end" the Bucs' season while at the same time elevating the Cards to right where they need to be. I'm on the home team in tonight's series opener. 

Luke Weaver will toe the rubber here for St. Louis. He officially joined the rotation in late July and his first start wasn't all that impressive as it saw him allow four runs in five innings and the Cards lost 4-0 to the D'backs. Since then, however, Weaver has been totally lights out. He has a 37-6 KW ratio his L4 starts, all Cardinals victories, and has allowed only 6 ER in 26 IP. Admittedly, he hasn't faced a lot of great offenses during this stretch, but it's not as if Pittsburgh comes in hitting the cover off the baseball either. The Pirates rank tied for 26th in runs scored, are 27th in team batting average and 29th in slugging. On the road is where things tend to grow quite dire as they are batting just .239 for the year. They scored just three runs the past two days (at home) and are 28-40 on the road overall. 

St. Louis has some of the best pitching in the National League and to counter, Pittsburgh will send Trevor Williams to the hill. Williams actually has a 0.90 ERA his L3 starts, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time makes you question just how good he's been. Having allowed 21 hits in 20 IP w/ eight walks is not a recipe for success, yet that's what Williams is doing. Last time out, he got through seven scoreless innings despite giving up eight hits. He was also facing the sorry Reds. This will be his third time starting against the Cardinals since the All-Star Break. The previous two both were at home and he allowed 17 hits in 8 2/3 IP, not to mention three home runs the last time he faced them. The Cards are the much better ballclub here and simply aren't being adequately priced. 8* St. Louis

8* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): The Yankees finished up their series w/ Baltimore a day later than expected (Wednesday rainout), but it proved to be "worth the wait" as they rolled to a 9-1 win yday. They are seemingly in comfortable position as far as the playoffs go, currently holding the top Wild Card spot. But they also are chasing the Red Sox in the AL East (3.5 gms back) and have a vastly superior YTD run differential (+147 vs. +81) compared to their rival. To me, this is pretty clearly one of the best teams in baseball. Tonight, they start a new series in Texas where the Rangers are desperately trying to hunt down the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Despite outscoring their opponents by 42 runs this year, the Rangers are just one game over .500. That's a stark contrast to LY when they won 95 games (most in AL!), but had a run diff of only +8. 

Texas is 2.5 gms back of Minnesota for that 2nd WC. They were off yday after splitting a doubleheader w/ Atlanta on Wednesday. We have a battle of hot starting pitchers in tonight's series opener, but in the case of the Rangers, that really surprises me. Martin Perez does not grade out well at all, so the fact he has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts is downright shocking. He has a 2.25 ERA his last three, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time indicates he's been pretty fortunate to still come out on the winning end. That stretch doesn't even include when Perez allowed six runs to the White Sox, in what ended up being a 17-7 Rangers' victory. For the year, Perez still sports a 4.82 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. He has a 12.86 ERA in two career starts vs. the Yankees. Bottom line is I would not trust Perez here or moving forward. 

The Yankees lineup is back at full strength and has scored 22 runs in the last three games. So they should have no problem getting to Perez. As for neutralizing the Rangers, Masahiro Tanaka comes into tonight in fine form. Like Perez, he is 3-0 his L3 starts and the ERA is similar (2.15). But WHIP tells a much different story as Tanaka's is 0.952 while Perez's is 1.400. Yes, the season-long numbers for the two pitchers remain somewhat similar. But Tanaka has allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts, five of those seeing him go at least six innings. While he's been backed by plenty of run support during that time, he hasn't really needed it. Beware that even though the Yanks have a losing road record this season, they are actually +0.8 rpg in those contests. Texas is just 1-4 this season as a ML home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 8* NY Yankees

8* Run Line San Diego (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Padres at +1.5. St. Louis was a pretty easy call for the first three games of this series as they check in w/ one of the NL's better pitching staffs and are up against MLB's worst offense. Furthermore, the Cardinals are desperately trying to make a playoff push (two games back of Wild Card, four games behind the Cubs in the NL Central) and can't afford to drop games to the team w/ the worst overall run differential in the sport. The Redbirds probably caught the Padres feeling a little "full of themselves" too as over the weekend, SD took three of four from the Dodgers. But history says that it's hard to sweep a four-game series on the road and a sharp line move has led me to taking the Padres (w/ a little added insurance) here. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight.

Believe it or not, but San Diego actually has a winning record at home. They even came into this series sporting a 38-32 record at Petco Park. As you might expect, they've had trouble putting runs on the road against the Cardinals. Tonight the task will remain tough as they face Lance Lynn, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 12 starts this year, most in all of MLB. However, the Cards have lost each of the L4 times he has started, three of those coming by one run. A one-run game, either way, is all we're looking for here remember. Might Lynn simply be "due" to win a one-run game? What I do know is St. Louis has played the second highest number of one-run games this season at 46. I'm also a little concerned w/ the fact Lynn is coming off working eight scoreless inning for the first time in three seasons. He's almost certainly due to regress. He also doesn't have the best KW ratio and, in fact, has four or less strikeouts in six of his last seven starts.  

The Padres counter w/ veteran Clayton Richard, who also pitched well his last time out. In his case, Richard enabled the Padres to "steal" a game from the heavily favored Dodgers by allowing only three hits over six innings. He also holds a recent win over Lynn and the Cardinals, back on 8.22. Ironically, that was the ONLY time in the eight starts that Richard did NOT go at least six innings (he went 5 2/3). Last week's game against the Dodgers was obviously the last time Richard started here at home. The time before that saw him go the distance w/ a CG three-hitter against the Phillies. Three of Richards' last six outings have resulted in one-run games as have six of Lynn's last nine. 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The slide continues in Los Angeles as the Dodgers have now lost 10 of 11 following last night's 3-1 loss (in 10 innings) to Arizona. Consider that the one win during this stretch was w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound against sorry San Diego. Other than that, it's been all losses, including five of them to Arizona. Thus, it's no surprise that the Diamondbacks' hottest stretch of 2017 has coincided w/ the Dodgers decline. The D'backs have now won 12 straight and are comfortably ahead in the NL Wild Card race. But I'm still sticking with the home team here. While I called Monday (lost 13-0!) the official "nadir" of their season, yday was their fifth loss in a row, which ties a season-high (set before Kershaw started against SD). I cannot see the Dodgers being swept for a second time in as many weeks by the D'backs, at Chavez Ravine no less. 

Though they've lost each of the last two days, the prices we're getting on the Dodgers in this series are pretty remarkable. Yes, they had to face Zack Greinke yday. But still, this is a team that's gone 52-18 at Chavez Ravine this year. The Dodgers were probably long overdue to start "giving some back," but we're hardly even a week removed from talk that this team would set the single season wins record. They allow only 3.2 rpg at home w/ opposing hitters batting a collective .212 here. Kenta Maeda gets the nod for Wednesday as he hopes for far better results than what we saw from him in Arizona last week. He allowed seven runs in three innings, but as I've mentioned before, Arizona's offense production goes way down on the road. Case in point, while Maeda has now been roughed up twice at Chase Field this year, the Dodgers did win (8-4) the lone time he faced them here at home. 

Maeda has a 9-1 team start record at Dodger Stadium this year w/ a 3.12 ERA and 1.006 WHIP. He'll need to be on par w/ those numbers tonight if he hopes to outduel Taijuan Walker, who has been lights out for the D'backs of late. In his L3 starts, Walker's ERA is 0.54! That includes five shutout innings of three-hit ball (w/ 10 K's!) at Coors Field his last time out. But let's be sure to note that he'd allowed 5 ER in B2B starts before these last three. As good as Walker and Arizona have been lately (haven't trailed in 98 innings!), you have to think they may have peaked. The Dodgers, still 27-17 off a loss this year, are too good to be swept at home. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami had some legit momentum heading into last week's series in the Nation's Capital. They'd won seven of eight, which had them three games above .500 and thinking Wild Card. But the Nationals swepts them and things have gone south ever since. The Fish have just one win in their last nine games and are now facing the prospect of being swept by the Nats for a second time in as many weeks. I did cash Miami on the RL last night as they competed against Stephen Strasburg, losing only 2-1 despite the obvious pitching mismatch. Seeing as the revenge angle is still in play here, I'll again say that the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

Washington is not hittting well right now, which also "opens the door" for Miami to potentially "steal one" on Wednesday. Over the last seven games, the Nats are averaging just 3.0 rpg while batting a collective .204. They've topped three runs just one time in the past six games! Monday saw the lineup, save for two players (Daniel Murphy & Anthony Rendon) go 2 for 26 at the plate. Murphy again bailed them out w/ a HR last night, but again the rest of the lineup struggled. Remember that Bryce Harper remains out. Thus, I'm willing to bank on Dillon Peters, who makes just his second career start tonight. The first went quite well as he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ eight strikeouts. It ended up being a hard-luck loss for the Marlins (2-1 to Philadelphia), but again, a one-run game (either way) here is just fine.

Miami has one of, if not THE, best hitters in the game on its roster. That would of course be Giancarlo Stanton, who homered Monday, but went 0 for 4 w/ a pair of strikeouts yday. Still, MLB's home run leader won't be down for long and certainly gives his team a shot to win on a daily basis. The pitcher that the Marlins will face here is Gio Gonzalez, who had been hot prior to his last outing where he allowed five runs in six innings. Gonzalez has definitely had Miami's number in 2017 w/ a 3-0 record (four starts) and 1.29 ERA, but two of the four games were decided by one run. Again, either way, that's just fine for us tonight. The Washington bullpen always remains a concern, especially on the road where it has a 5.19 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. I cashed them on the RL yday, but it was an 8-7 loss, meaning that the revenge factor is still in play here. Last week, the A's were swept by the Angels down in Anaheim and they are facing a repeat of that if they were to lose again today. Though these AL West rivals are seemingly headed in very opposite directions right now, I'll still back the home team as they've outhit the Angels in the series and LA continues to give up a LOT of runs (45 in the L6 games!). The Angels have also played more one-run games (43) than any other team in the American League. They've lost eight straight, but again, Oakland does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

It's not as if the A's haven't been competitive in the first two games of this series. Certainly, they've played a lot better than they did in last week's series in Anaheim. Of course, that's not surprising when you consider the team is a respectable 37-33 at home compared to 21-47 on the road. Both games in this series have gone to extra innings. Oakland initally took a 4-0 lead in Monday's opener, but could not hold on and lost 11-9 in 11 innings. That's despite the fact they had a 16-13 edge in hits and made the Angels burn through an AL record 12 pitchers in one game. Last night saw the A's again finish w/ the edge in hits (13-9), but it still wasn't enough in a 10-inning loss. Eventually, this has to catch up w/ the Angels though. Their last five games have lasted more than 21 hours and the bullpen has been heavily taxed during that stretch. 

With last night's win, the Angels moved ahead of the Twins for the AL's second Wild Card by one-half game. This insane race features seven teams separated only 2.5 games. Regular followers of mine know that I'm not at all surprised by the Angels' ascension, as I called for it several weeks ago. But I remain highly skeptical of their ability to win by any kind of margin w/ the current state of the pitching staff. Today, Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. He comes in w/ a 9.49 ERA and 1.703 WHIP his L3 starts. Oakland did not have the luxury of facing him in last week's series at Anaheim, which is too bad because Skaggs is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA all-time vs. the A's including a pair of losses here in '17. Oakland counters here w/ Sean Manaea, who has pitched much better of late following an awful start to August. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 6 2/3 IP. It ended up being a 3-2 loss at Seattle, but that result would work for us here thanks to the RL.  8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

analysis soon

8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. I did the same yday and came away w/ a very unfortunate result as the A's tied the game in the bottom of the ninth (9-9) only to lose - by two runs - in 11 innings. It took 12 pitchers, an American League record for one game, for the Angels to get the job Monday and you have to wonder where that leaves the staff for tonight's game. Given the number of runs the Halos have been allowing recently (38 in the L5 games!), I think I'm right to question what they'll do on that side of the ledger this evening. Remember what I said about Oakland at home (vs. on the road) in yday's analysis (they have a winning record at home) and that the revenge angle in still in play here. 

While they are the worst road team in baseball, the A's are a respectable 37-32 in their home park this season, which translates into a modest profit. True to form, Tuesday's starter Kendall Graveman is unbeaten in seven starts here (3-0) w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. The A's could really use a strong start from Graveman in this spot or at least something better than he gave them last week when he allowed five runs in five innings against this very same opponent. He allowed three home runs, which would be more concerning if not for the fact he'd allowed only three in his previous eight starts combined. Graveman had also delivered three consecutive quality starts previously where he'd allowed just five runs in 20 IP. Also, remember that last start came in Anaheim. 

Angels skipper Mike Scioscia has a predicament on his hands here. Starter Garrett Richards, making his first start since returning from returning from the 60-day RL, is reportedly going to be limited to 50 (or so) pitches here. Given the heavy bullpen usage yday, what is Scioscia to do? Yes, I know rosters are expanded in September, but considering three different relievers failed to record even a single out yday, what is there to turn to here? The A's outhit the Angels yday and had a four-run lead after the 1st inning. Fatigue has to be a major factor at this point for the Halos, whose last four games have lasted nearly 17 hours. This will be only the fourth time this season that he team, which has a losing road record, is north of -125 on the money line away from home. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. The O's lost for me yday, 7-4, despite the fact they took an early 3-0 lead and had their best starter (Dylan Bundy) on the hill. Needless to say, I was pretty disappointed by the result. The Yankees scored all seven of their runs across three innings, five of them coming off Bundy via two home runs. While the result certainly solidified the Yanks' playoff position (3.5 game lead in Wild Card, 2.5 back of Red Sox in AL East), it definitely hurt Baltimore's as they remain 1.5 gms back of Minnesota for the Wild Card. I'm going to stick w/ the home team Tuesday, however, as they still have revenge for a prior sweep and at Camden Yards, their record is 43-29. 

Jeremy Hellickson will get the starting nod here for Baltimore and while he's struggled of late, don't forget he did beat Boston (as a +150 dog) back on 8.25. He's 4-2 w/ a 3.21 ERA vs. the Yankees lifetime. He has not faced them in 2017 ... until now. Obviously, avoiding the long ball has to be a priority. But a big part of Hellickson's problem lately has been that that virtually every baserunner he allows is scoring. Better luck in that department is due and would certainly aid in changing his fortune. Also, let's not forget that Baltimore has one of the better bullpens in the game. Buck Showalter always seems to get his teams to overachieve and 2017 has been no different.

It's easy to forget that the Orioles ended August by winning seven of eight. The acquisition of Tim Beckham at the trade deadline has paid major dividends thus far. Last night, he hit his third leadoff HR since coming over. While that didn't translate to a win, his effect on the top of the batting order has been big. Scoring runs has never been a problem for the O's and they're 4th in team batting average + third in slugging. It will be a familiar foe they're facing tonight in CC Sabathia, who has pitched well of late. Three straight quality starts have produced a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for the hefty lefty, but don't forget he allowed four runs in three straight starts previous to this stretch. Sabathia has struggled in his two starts this year vs. the Orioles as he has a 6.94 ERA w/ a pair of no decisions. Both starts were back in April and the last one saw him give up seven runs in 5 2/3 IP. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers at +1.5. The home team lost by only a single run yday, thereby cashing on the RL, but also leaving the revenge angle open. The Royals have now won six in a row over the Tigers, the last four victories all coming here at Comerica Park. Yes, one team (KC) still has Wild Card aspirations while the other (Detroit) is well out of contention. But the respective YTD run differentials are pretty similar here w/ the Royals having been outscored by 70 runs in '17 and the Tigers by 94. Yes, Detroit has now lost five in a row overall (swept here at home by red-hot Cleveland over the weekend), but let's not forget that the Royals have been shut out FIVE times in the last 10 games as well w/ three of those games seeing them lose by a margin of 12 runs or greater! 

Neither starting pitcher for this Tuesday matchup is in fine form. We start w/ the Royals' Jason Vargas, who who is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 7.47 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. Overall, the team has dropped five of his six starts and really it hasn't mattered how Vargas has performed seeing as the offense was blanked (shut out) in three of the games. But last time out, Vargas allowed three home runs in a loss to the Rays. Now the Tigers' Anibal Sanchez has been no better and, in fact, he's actually been worse all season and recently w/ a 13.50 ERA & 2.207 WHIP his L3 starts. But this will be his first time starting since 8.16 and in terms of who is facing who, it's advantage Sanchez as he's got a 2.94 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Royals while Vargas has a 6.03 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Detroit. The last time Vargas faced the Tigers was back in July and he was hit hard, giving up six runs in just 2 2/3 IP.

Earlier, I mentioned the respective YTD run differentials of the two teams. What's interesting is that the Royals have still managed to go .500 while the Tigers are now 21 games below. In terms of the number of wins you'd expect from those respective run differentials, Kansas City is only at 60, one better than Detroit. So while the Tigers' record is essentially "what it should be," the Royals have clearly overachieved by staying in Wild Card contention. In fact, their +8 difference in actual vs. expected wins is the largest in the American League! The recent routs they've been on the wrong end of certainly skew the numbers somewhat, but consider that their last three wins have all come by one run margins as well. That's a result we'd be just fine w/ again tonight. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami made a nice little run at the end of August, at one point winning seven of eight. But then they ran into the Nationals and things have gone south in a hurry. The Fish were swept in the Nation's Capital last week, then after dropping three of four to the last place Phillies over the weekend, they lost to the Nats again on Monday (despite actually checking in as the ML favorite). They are decided underdogs Tuesday as Stephen Strasburg will pitch for the Nats, but that also opens up an opportunity to grab the added insurance that the RL provides, at an affordable price. Having lost six in a row to the Nats, the revenge angle is definitely still in play for the Marlins here. 

Strasburg is 14-7 w/ a 3.26 ERA in 27 career starts vs. Miami. This includes a complete game effort (six-hit shutout) his last time out. But he has struggled some here on South Beach w/ a 4.76 ERA and losing record in nine outings. That last time was at home, remember, and I'm interested to see how he performs coming off a 110-pitch outing where he also helped himself w/ a home run. Several Marlins' hitters, most notable among them Giancarlo Stanton, have good career numbers against Strasburg. Stanton, who hit his MLB-leading 52nd HR yday, has a .333 liftetime batting average (45 AB's) and a 1.111 OPS. Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto are two other Miami hitters that have had Strasburg's number in the past. So this is not the insurmountable task it may look like on paper. 

While two of Washington's hitters - Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy - went a combined 6 for 9 w/ 2 HR's last night - the rest of the lineup was just 2 for 26. Remember that Bryce Harper is still out. That certainly comes as good news for Miami starter Odrisamer Despaigne. This will be Despaigne's third start since rejoining the rotation. He's been pretty good in the first two, allowing just four runs total in 10 IP. Granted, that came against the Padres and Phillies. But even so, both were one-run games, a result that would be fine for us (either way!) tonight. In my opinion, a team w/ the caliber of hitter like Stanton, getting an additional 1.5 runs, is a bargain at almost any price. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers were long overdue to "give a little back," but safe to say no one foresaw what happened to them on the recently completed road trip where they finished 1-6 w/ three straight losses to the lowly Padres! That road trip began w/ them getting swept in Arizona and now they return home a hungry and revenge-minded team. All things considered, this is an incredible price on team that's gone a ridiculous 52-16 at home this season and has a pitcher the caliber of Rich Hill on the bump. Yes, Arizona is the National League's hottest team right now (won 10 straight!), but I don't see them having the same kind of success here at Chavez Ravine that they did at Chase Field last week. After all, the D'backs are a losing proposition away from home.

Hill has had a fantastic year for the Dodgers, just like most members of the starting rotation. He was roughed up for six runs last week in Arizona, but that came on the heels of one of the most hard luck decisions in recent memory, a game where Hill didn't allow a single hit for nine innings, yet lost 1-0 at Pittsburgh (10-0 KW ratio). Last time out snapped a stretch of Hill allowing three runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts. Strangely, his TSR at home is only 6-4. But it's no secret that the Dodgers are #1 "with a bullet" when it comes to run suppression at home, allowing just 3.1 rpg here w/ opponents batting .211! Again, the Dodgers are 52-16 in this ballpark this season. Prior to getting swept by Arizona last week, the team had not lost more than three in a row all year!

Arizona counters with one of their top arms, Robbie Ray, who has been extra sharp of late. He had 10 K's in a win over the Dodgers last week where he allowed just one run and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. With the sweep in Colorado over the weekend, the D'backs very much solidified the likelihood that they will be the top Wild Card in the National League. But now it's time for them to give a little back as I cannot remember the last time the Dodgers were priced this low on the money line at home. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Oakland (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the A's +1.5. Just last week these AL West rivals met and it was the Angels sweeping in Anaheim. Oakland would go on to finish its road trip at 0-6 after also being swept in Seattle over the weekend. While I'm on the record as saying the Halos will be the AL's second Wild Card, I believe this afternoon is a good time to fade them. Not only is this a revenge spot for the Athletics, but the shift in scene definitely matters. Oakland may be the worst road team in baseball, but they have a winning record here at home (37-31). Furthermore, the price on the Angels here is a little bit rare as it marks only the third time this season they are a road fave of -125 or higher on the money line. They've gone 0-2 previously! 

Parker Bridwell has been a revalation for the Angels starting rotation as he leads the way w/ a 12-2 team start record this year. But he's been nowhere near as dominant as that TSR might seem to suggest. In fact, Oakland just roughed him up last week, scoring seven times off him in just three innings. The Angels were then able to rally for a 10-8 victory, allowing Bridwell to escape what should have been a sure loss. Bridwell's ERA now stands at 3.67, which is downright mediocre. Something else to note here is that LA flew into Oakland a little later than expected due to Sunday's game w/ Texas going so long. The Angels dropped two of three in Arlington over the weekend, both losses coming by one run, and have now given up a total of 29 runs their last four games. It's tough to consistently win, especially by any kind of margin, when you're giving up that many runs. 

Oakland has their own embattled starter going here. Chris Smith has never won in eight starts and did not fare well against the Angels last week. He was charged w/ seven runs in 3 2/3 IP (only on five hits though). Still, Smith has a respectable 1.157 WHIP in his four starts at home. Before losing 10-2 yday, the A's last two losses were both by one run margins. They have a winning record this year (9-8) after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. The Angels have played the most one-run games of any team in the American League (42) and I feel the home team, returning home and armed w/ revenge, will do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (2:05 ET): The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after taking three of four from Boston over the weekend. They even slammed Chris Sale last night in a 9-2 victory that now has them 3.5 gms back of the first place Red Sox. But today marks an excellent opportunity to fade the team wearing pinstripes as not only are they on the road immediately following Sunday Night Baseball, but it's day game to boot and they will be facing a very hot pitcher. Baltimore has its own Wild Card aspirations and Monday starter Dylan Bundy has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts w/ a 0.951 WHIP. The O's, who have won 9 of 11 overall, are a much stronger club at Camden Yards and they have revenge here for a sweep at the hands of the Yankees (in NY) where they were outscored 38-8 (two months ago). 

The Orioles had won seven in a row before splitting a four-game series w/ Toronto over the weekend. That result had to be considered a little disappointing in that they're 43-28 at home (compared to just 27-39 on the road). But today's price range certainly seems to suit them well as they are 18-8 this season as a home fave between -125 and -175, not to mention 60-31 in that same range the L3 seasons. They enter play Monday just 1.5 gms back of Minnesota for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Having Bundy on the mound for today's series opener is huge. He's been their most profitable starter this year and is coming off his 1st career shutout. Last Tuesday vs. Seattle, he threw the CG one-hitter w/ 12 strikeouts. In two starts vs. the Yankees this year, he's allowed only 5 ER in 13 IP.

Both of Baltimore's wins over the weekend came in extra innings. They're now an extremely fortunate 12-2 in extra inning games this season, which normally would have me very skeptical, but consider they won yday's game despite going 1 for 17 w/ RISP! You would think more timely hitting is on the way then. That's not good news for Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who already has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts w/ a 5.02 ERA. Montgomery did beat Bundy back in June, but that was at Yankee Stadium. On the road, his team start record is only 4-8. Talking about the price range, the Yanks are only 15-28 this season when on the road and the money line is -125 or less (either way). Good opportunity here for the O's to exact some revenge and stay in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Baltimore

10* LA Angels (3:10 ET): A three-game sweep would certainly have been the desired outcome this weekend in Arlington, but the Angels will gladly accept taking two of three from the Rangers. That's the chance in front of them today as these two Wild Card contenders and AL West rivals play a rubber match at Globe Life Park. Texas took the series opener, 10-9 on Friday, while the Angels bounced back w/ a 7-4 win in 10 innings. Looking ahead, the Angels are the team here that I view as a more legit WC contender as the Rangers are due to fall short as repentance for last year's overachievement. The fact that their starter, Martin Perez, comes in w/ a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts is pretty shocking considering the skill set. I'm betting on him regressing to previous form today. 

As alluded to earlier, Texas is a very interesting team to evaluate over a two-year span. Last year's 95-win team was nowhere as good as its record as they outscored the opposition by only EIGHT runs. This year, their run differential is +32 (best among WC contenders), yet they remain a game below .500. I, for one, am not surprised as they should have been pegged for fewer wins this season anyway. Perez coming in on a five-start win streak is as shocking as shocking gets. While many Rangers' fans will want to laud the August that the southpaw just turned in, the fact is that he's been roughed up for six more runs three times in the last seven starts. Only half of his 26 starts this year have been quality and his ERA over his L7 starts is 5.44 (1.372 WHIP). He has a poor 1.530 WHIP for the year.

The Angels' rotation has gotten healthier as the season has progressed, which is a big reason why the team finds itself in its current position, 1.5 games back of the Twins for the final Wild Card. A "sneaky" part of their success is that the bullpen posted the lowest ERA in baseball last month. Andrew Heaney gets the nod Sunday and he's coming off his best outing to date as he allowed just one run on two hits and struck out 10 batters Monday vs. Oakland. He's had one extra day of rest compared to Perez coming into today. This will be his second time seeing the Rangers and while the first didn't go that well (allowed 3 HR's), I expect he'll be a lot better this time around. Him simply handing the bullpen a lead is all we're looking for here as given the recent form of the Angels' relievers, they should be able to preserve the lead. Meanwhile, their hitters have found plenty of success in this series against the Rangers' pen including scoring five times in the final two frames last night. 10* LA Angels

8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): There a seven teams - all separated by just four games - currently competing for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays are one of them and while they should be viewed as one of the more "legit" contenders, losing to the White Sox on Saturday certainly did not help. Chicago is obviously not one of the teams still in contention, in fact, by most objective standards (record, run differential), they're the AL's worst team. So I fully anticipate the road team bouncing back Sunday afternoon. Yesterday was a case of "bad luck" for Tampa Bay as Chris Archer gave up B2B homers to start the game and then had to exit early due to injury. Those circumstances are highly unlikely to present themselves again and the Rays are just the better team here.

Despite struggling offensively in August, the Rays' pitching has been able to keep them in contention. They allowed the third fewest runs per game (3.4) last month and starters posted the seventh lowest ERA while the bullpen was fourth. Today sees Matt Andriese starting for the first time in nearly three months. Andriese being back in the rotation is a welcome sight as he's 5-1 in 12 starts this year w/ a very respectable ERA and WHIP. Andriese did pitch a scoreless inning of relief last week vs. KC, so he's not coming out cold here. Something to keep in mind is that this an ideal opponent for Andriese to face as the White Sox are 26th in runs scored and 25th in OBP. They've scored the fewest runs among American League clubs. Only once in the past 11 games have they topped five runs.

Two weekends ago, Chicago did manage to win three straight games. But since then, they've lost five of seven and overall it's been a disastrous second half of the season w/ a 15-32 record. Keep in mind that before yday's loss, TB had won 6 of 8! Starting here for the White Sox will be Lucas Giolito, who is off his 1st career shutout, last Sunday against the Tigers. But he'd allowed four runs in each of his previous four starts to that one, so I expect some regression on the mound today. His strikeout numbers still aren't all that impressive as the most he's had in any one outing so far is four. It was more fly ball outs than ground ball outs his last time out. Having thrown 203 pitches his L2 starts, Giolito is in a bit of uncharted territory here. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Seattle (9:05 ET): The Mariners came into this series on a five-game losing streak and their playoff hopes appeared to be very much on "life support." But drawing Oakland at home this weekend just might be the cure. The M's snapped said losing streak last night w/ a 3-2 and despite still being a game under .500, they're only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League (though they'd have to jump many teams to get it). But like I already said, playing the A's should at least enable them to keep pace in the chase. Oakland is a dreadful road team as their 21-45 record is the AL's worst away from home. They've now lost four in a row, all on the road, and there's little reason to suggest they'll be able to turn things around tonight or moving forward. 

It should be noted that the Mariners were coming off a 12-game road trip. They had an off-day going into yday and that seemed to help. So did new arrival Mike Leake, who wound up throwing seven strong innings. Tonight, we must rely upon Yovani Gallardo, who admittedly has been shaky of late. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 21 starts this season and those numbers have actually gotten WORSE lately. The team has lost each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, but again, this will clearly be the weakest opponent he's faced in some time. Case in point, the A's are the one team Gallardo has pitched well against in 2017. He has a 2.95 ERA and 3-0 TSR. The last time he won was against Oakland. He's gone 17 innings against them this year and allowed just seven runs. 

Oakland turns to Jharel Cotton, arguably their best starter. While he's off B2B quality starts and wins, he did allow 6 ER each of the two starts before those. His KW rate also remains unimpressive. Yes, he posted a 9-0 vs. Texas his last time out, but he had more walks than strikeouts his two starts before that. Cotton faced Gallardo back on 8.9 and was terrible as he gave up three home runs and six runs total. Again, I have to point to the fact that Seattle is competing for a playoff spot while Oakland is simply "playing out the string" at this point. The A's run differential on the road (-1.4 rpg) is one of the worst in baseball and isn't likely to reverse course in the season's final month. 10* Seattle

10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): For the second day in a row, the "sharp money" seems to be on the Brew Crew. It was "spot on" yday as they came back to beat the Nationals 6-3. I was a little leery considering the pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez vs. Kyle Davies, but I'm "all in" tonight as Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the bump. This is a somewhat "dangerous" series for the Nats, whose standing is unlikely to change between now and the postseason. They know they're going to be NL East Champs (15 game lead!) and the likely 2nd seed, behind the Dodgers. For Milwaukee, things are far more dire. They trail the Cubs by 3.5 games in the NL Central and Colorado by 2.5 games for the 2nd Wild Card. They catch a break this weekend in that they don't have to face Max Scherzer until Sunday and avoid Stephen Strasburg entirely. They are the play here.

I don't think anyone really expects the Brewers to be in the postseason, but don't tell them that. They've won four of five, beating the Dodgers (twice), Cards and Nats, collectively three of the NL's top six teams. Now they turn to their top pitcher, Nelson, who no-hit the Dodgers for five innings his last time out. He ended up allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 IP and got the win as a +182 ML dog. Overall, the team has won the last three times he's taken the mound. Despite losing to the Nats on 7.26, Nelson pitched very well against them, striking out 10 and allowing just two runs on four hits (sound familiar?). That was on the road. At home, he has better numbers and overall he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his previous seven starts.

Washington had an easy time w/ Miami earlier this week, but that was at home and their rotation set up very well in that series w/ both Scherzer and Strasburg pitching. The team has played very well on the road all year long, but it's telling how the money has moved against them for a second consecutive day. Tanner Roark will get the start tonight and even though he too has looked good of late, he's not as good as Nelson. Over his L7 starts, Roark does have a 5-2 TSR, but four of those team wins have come by exactly one run. Last time out was also the first start since before Memorial Day where he didn't walk a single batter. For whatever reason, the Nationals don't seem to score as much when Roark is on the hill and that could prove costly against a team like the Brewers, who are top five in MLB when it comes to hitting home runs at home. 10* Milwaukee

6* Run Line Cincinnati (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds +1.5. For all intents and purposes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' season came to an end earlier this week in Chicago. A three-game bludgeoning at the hands of the Cubs (lost all three games by a combined score of 27-5) was not lost on the front office as they let reliever Juan Nicasio clear waivers and go to Philadelphia, a clear sign that the organization has given up on making the playoffs. Now the Reds have been out of contention for months, but they always seem to give the Bucs trouble (5-1 here in Pittsburgh this season!) plus we've got an immediate revenge spot w/ tonight's starting pitching matchup. Cincy does no worse than a one-run loss here.

While Pittsburgh had Thursday off, the Reds beat the Mets 7-2 at home in an afternoon game. I had them in a 14-4 win Tuesday as well. The win yday gave them a winning month (15-14) for the 1st time in over a year! Pitching is usually not this team's strong suit, but they held the Mets to no home runs for the series, which is impressive considering NY leads the NL in home runs w/ 193. Tonight, the Reds will have an impressive young arm out on the mound, that belonging to Luis Castillo, who has posted exceptional numbers of late despite a lack of real succes. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven consecutive starts, a stretch in which his ERA and WHIP are 2.76 and 1.039 respectively. Lately, he's been even better w/ a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP his L3 starts. He was a hard-luck loser last week vs. the Pirates as he allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits in 7 IP. Tonight marks a second straight crack at beating Gerritt Cole and the last time showed he's more than capable of getting the job done.

Last Saturday saw Cole and the Pirates beat Castillo and the Reds 1-0. The one run came on a solo HR from Cole. (Like I said, it was a hard-luck loss!). However, while Cole tossed seven shutout innings, performances such as that are not commonplace for him against this particular opponent. In fact, Cole had NEVER beaten the Reds previously as he was 0-6 against them in nine starts. Therefore, what are the chances he beats them twice in a row, facing the same starting pitcher no less? I'd say "not good." Also, Cole has not been sharp at home lately w/ a 5.28 ERA his L5 starts at PNC Park. He last won a game here on June 13th. 6* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. The first two games of this three-game set up beautifully for the host Twins. They had their top two pitchers (Santana, Berrios) on the mound, both in immediate revenge spots against inferior pitchers that happened to beat them their respective last times out. The market heavily favored Minnesota in both games and they delivered accordingly w/ wins of 6-4 and 11-1. However, the situation is a bit different this afternoon as the archaic Bartolo Colon toes the rubber. Questions still remain w/ this Twins club as despite a 69-63 record (currently hold 2nd Wild Card in AL), they've been outscored this season and they're a losing proposition at home. I expect the White Sox to be far more competitive today and do no worse than a one-run defeat. 

While it certainly was NOT the case either of the past two days, the pitching matchup does seem to be in Chicago's favor today. Colon has not had a great year by any objective measure as he comes in sporting a 6.35 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 21 starts. He did just win at Toronto (as a +180 ML dog) last Friday by allowing just one run, on a solo HR, in 6 2/3 IP. But he also got away w/ allowing nine hits overall and he had ZERO strikeouts! Note that in his two previous starts, Colon had allowed a total of SIX home runs. Note that his numbers here at home do not improve and his WHIP over his L3 starts is right in line w/ what it is for the season. I would not expect Colon to get the same kind of run support Berrios did yday. In fact, this stretch that's seen Minnesota scored 6+ times in four consecutive games is highly irregular for them. Also, they're only 22-29 in day games this season as they allow 5.8 rpg. 

Chicago goes w/ Miguel Gonzalez. While he has a TSR identical to that of Colon (9-12), the ERA and WHIP are both slightly better thanks to a strong August. He's posted four quality starts in a row (1.29 ERA), all as an underdog, and the team has won three times! (The lone exception came when he was +300 at the Dodgers. Gonzalez has allowed a total of just four runs in 28 IP and last time out saw him post his best KW rate in any start this season (9-0). Coming into this series, the White Sox had won 7 of 11 and I think the "added insurance" (+1.5) is the prudent move here as the Twins are simply not as good as they've looked the past two days. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals didn't just snap a five-game losing skid last night (won 6-2), they also ended an embarrassing stretch of baseball that had seen them get shut out FOUR consecutive times and outscored 32-0! They'd actually gone 45 straight innings w/o cross the plate! I don't think for a second that they're anywhere near as bad as they played during that stretch, thus you can look for the bounce back to continue tonight in the series finale w/ TB. Kansas City has taken a very "up and down" path en route to essentially being a .500 team this year. After ending July on a 10-2 run, they're just 10-17 here in August. Remember, they got off to a terrible start to the season before fighting their way back into contention. There's been a huge steam move here that I happen to agree with wholeheartedly. 

Having Jason Vargas on the hill should certainly help the home team's chances tonight. Though he didn't really pitch well in either of his last two starts (both against Cleveland), the offense was also shut out both times, so it really didn't matter. Vargas still comes in sporting a 16-9 team start record, making him the most profitable starter in the Royals rotation in 2017. Earlier this year, he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Rays and that was on the road. In three of his five Augusts starts, the Royals have failed to score a single run. If they can finally support him properly, I have little doubt that Vargas will hold up his "end of the bargain."  Tampa Bay is just 15-21 this year when facing a left-handed starter. 

Though both of these teams are just below .500, they remain very much alive in the wide open AL Wild Card race which sees seven teams separated by just 3.5 games. Baseball is being played in Tampa right now (Texas-Houston series due to Hurricane Harvey), just not by the Rays. That's too bad for TB starter Jake Odorizzi as he desperately needs to be picked up after B2B poor showings. For the 1st time in his career, Odorizzi lasted less than four innings in B2B starts and as a result he comes in w/ a 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP his L3. He's allowed a HR in 20 of his 22 starts this season and the Royals have had his number through the years as well. In six career starts, Odorizzi is 1-4 against KC w/ a 4.65 ERA. He was roughed up in his lone start here at Kauffman Stadium, though that came all the way back in 2014. Earlier this season, he came out on the losing end of that Vargas' gem and that's too bad because he actually pitched well. Kansas City is long overdue for some sort of offensive onslaught and I see them taking tonight's rubber match. 10* Kansas City

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Oddsmakers initially installed Detroit as the slight favorite here (w/ Justin Verlander on the hill), but the public had none of it and nor do I. Last night, I was on the Rockies as they rolled to an easy 7-3 win here. After initially jumping out to a 3-0 lead, they did have to come back w/ a four-run seventh to get the win. Colorado did lose the opener Monday, but as mentioned in yday's analysis, they actually outhit the Tigers in that game. The home team's problem - at least recently - has been a failure to get hits w/ RISP. While that issue seemed to persist last night (went 2 for 6), it's a stat where teams almost always regress/progress to the mean. So expect more timely hitting moving forward. As for the Tigers, you'd expect their offense to get a boost from playing at Coors Field, but remember they lose the DH from the batting order in this series plus Miguel Cabrera (back) is also out. 

Verlander has been sharp in B2B outings and as a result has a 0.935 WHIP his L3 starts. But the Tigers are not a good road team (26-42 overall), especially when Verlander is on the hill. Even when he pitches relatively well away from Comerica Park, like his last time out, the team still finds a way to lose. Last Friday saw the Tigers lose 3-2 at Chicago (White Sox), dropping Verlander's TSR away from home to a lousy 3-11 this season. He has a 5.02 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in those 14 starts. This hitter-friendly environment seems like one of the LEAST likely places for Verlander to turn around his road woes. The Tigers have been outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, tied for the third worst run differential in all of MLB (only Oakland and San Diego are worse). Remember that this is one of only three American League teams not in playoff contention. 

Like I said earlier, the Detroit offense has really not benefited from the "Coors Effect," scoring just seven runs in the two games. Colorado, on the other hand, is the highest scoring home team in all of baseball and is 31-17 in day games (5.6 rpg scored) to boot. Chad Bettis makes his 4th start of the year here and while he's actually regressed with each passing start, note that the last time out was the second time he'd faced Atlanta in a 12-day span and also his 1st road start of '17. In two starts here at Coors Field, his ERA is 1.93. The Tigers have won just three of their previous 18 road series and I don't see them winning this one. It's an important game for the Rockies as they try and hold onto the second Wild Card in the N.L. 8* Colorado

intended to be a FREE play!

incorrectly entered....NOT a play!

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Not that they needed it after the Mayweather-McGregor fight Saturday night, but the sportsbooks reaped yet another windfall last night w/ the Rockies losing 4-3 to the Tigers. It was easily the biggest decision at most books considering the home team had been bet up from the opening number of -160 to somewhere north of -200, depending on your shop. In an atypical occurrence, there was no scoring at Coors Field after the third inning last night. Detroit struck for two runs in both the 1st and 3rd innings while all of Colorado's scoring came in the 2nd. The Rockies did outhit the Tigers for the game, 13-9, but sadly were 1 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 11 men on base. They're now down to a .223 batting average w/ RISP this month. Still the highest scoring home team (6.1 rpg) in the majors, I see those struggles correcting themselves sooner rather than later and will call for a reversal of fortune tonight for the team desperately fighting for its playoff life.

At one point, the Rockies making the playoffs was considered a formality. Not anymore. The Dodgers obviously blew by them long ago and now they're holding onto a rather precarious three game lead for the final Wild Card spot. Remember that this is a franchise that has made the playoffs only three times in its history and never won the NL West. But this year's team has improved in several key areas, most notably run suppression as they're at least middle of the road in most pitching metrics. German Marquez goes tonight and he's looking to follow up a quality start against another American League opponent (KC) where the only two runs allowed both came on solo homers. Remember that the Tigers are w/o the DH in the batting order for this series and Miguel Cabrera left last night's game w/ some lower back tightness. Those absences will certainly help Marquez, who already has an 8-2 team start record at Coors Field this season and a 3.12 ERA when pitching here since May 10th. 

Detroit is one of four AL teams out of contention, so they've really got nothing to play for from here on out. They had not been playing well coming into this series and have allowed an average of 6.4 runs per game over the L7 days w/ opponents batting .310. Those numbers don't figure to improve this week at hitter-friendly Coors Field, especially w/ the struggling Michael Fulmer on the bump. Fulmer is 0-5 w/ a 5.97 ERA his L6 starts and the Tigers were lucky to win the last one as he allowed five runs in six innings. The offense scored 10 runs that day, but has totaled only 13 in the four games since and like I said earlier, being w/o the DH (and possibly Cabrera) potentially cripples them even in the hitter-friendly environment. Give me the Rockies in this one. 8* Colorado

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Over the weekend, I showed that I'm not afraid to offer a rare recommendation on a bad team when I played Oakland over Texas. I'm going to do the same thing here today, this time in the National League, on Cincinnati. In yday's analysis, I mentioned that it is the Phillies who have been ML favorites the fewest number of times this year in the Senior Circuit. Well, the Reds aren't too far ahead of the Phillies as tonight marks just the 39th time (in 132 games) that they have been the ML favorite. But it's justified as they're not only at home, but playing a Mets team w/ little to play for, starting a pitcher that is questionable at best. The Mets have lost 11 of 15 overall and are giving up more than five runs per game on the road this year.

Over the weekend, the Mets were able to split a four-game series w/ the first place Nationals. They were fortunate to have Monday off seeing as they played a doubleheader Sunday. But they are only 4-7 coming off an off-day this year and as alluded to earlier, starter Chris Flexen should not exactly have Mets' fans "feeling easy" heading into this series opener. While the Mets have won four of Flexen's six starts so far, that record should be considered fortunate at best given the pitcher's 5.79 ERA and 1.929 WHIP. On the road, Flexen has been particularly brutal w/ an 8.18 ERA and 2.545 WHIP (three starts). Control has been a primary concern w/ him as he's walked at least three batters in five of his six starts, including exactly four in each of the previous three. 20 walks in 28 IP is not good. Nor is the Mets' bullpen on the road (5.44 ERA, 1.570 WHIP). As per usual, I expect the Mets to give up plenty of runs on the road tonight.

It would seem as if the sharp money agrees w/ my assessment of this matchup as the Reds have been bet up pretty significantly, which is something you obviously don't see all that often. They do average 5.0 rpg here at home where they have a respectable 31-35 record. Sal Romano will get the start here and he's looking to make it three straight wins and quality outings after allowing just three runs total in a pair of seven inning efforts. Last time out, he beat the Cubs as a +155 ML dog! The Mets have shockingly beaten the Reds 14 consecutive times, but this is actually the first time they've met in 2017 and this Mets team is nowhere near as good as past editions. Tonight will be the Reds' time to shine, something I haven't said all that often this season. 10* Cincinnati

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Oakland just did the Angels (and a number of other teams) a big favor by sweeping the Rangers over the weekend. A crowded field of eight teams fighting for that 2nd Wild Card in the American League are separated by just six games and the Angels (along w/ Seattle) are one of the two teams closest to catching the Twins, just 1.5 games back. Here at home, I expect the Halos to pay the A's back w/ scorn. Relegated simply to spoiler, Oakland is not one of the eight teams competing for that final playoff berth and expecting them to carry over the momentum from the weekend seems optimistic at best. When these AL West rivals met earlier this month, the A's were able to take two of three here in LA. But a repeat of that seems unlikely given Oakland's terrible resume on the road as they're 21-41 and getting outscored by 1.3 runs per game. 

Oakland doesn't find itself on this kind of win streak often and they are just 4-8 when off three consecutive wins this season. Rookie Daniel Gossett will toe the rubber tonight, making his 2nd start since being recalled from Triple A. Last time out, things didn't go very well as he allowed five runs in five innings against Baltimore. The A's lost 8-7 in 12 innings. Overall, the team is just 4-7 when Gossett starts this year as his ERA is 5.49 and his WHIP is 1.441. He's 0-3 vs. the division w/ a 5.63 ERA. He probably shouldn't expect much run support either as the A's average just 3.9 rpg on the road. This just seems like a great spot to fade a last place team as they're coming off a rare sweep. 

As for the Angels, it's been a disappointing start to the homestand. They've gone 2-5 against the Rangers and Astros, including a tough 7-5 loss yday. But yday also marked the first time they were at "plus money" (dog) on the ML this homestand, which tells me the market is really starting to respect them, especially considering they were slight favorites to beat the Astros twice. Andrew Heaney pitches today and while his TSR is 0-2 w/ SEVEN home runs allowed, I'm projecting his best start to date comes tonight. He does have a good KW ratio (9-0) and has been rather efficient in terms of the pitch count as well. I think the home run ball is just "one of those things" and can be corrected. If the Angels are to make the postseason (and I give them a great shot), this is a series they should probably sweep. 8* LA Angels

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. While theoretically this is a battle of NL East also-rans, things have played out in extraordinarily one-sided fashion between the Braves and Phillies in 2017. Philadelphia has taken 11 of the 13 head to head meetings, including all six since the All-Star Break, and they're a perfect 7-0 vs. Atlanta here at home. On paper, this makes little sense. Philly has the worst record in baseball (48-81) and is 9.5 games back of the Braves in the standings. The market has taken notice though and this will be the 1st time this year that the Phillies are substantial ML favorites to beat the Braves. That opens up an opportunity to play the run line at a decent price and getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with against the team w/ the worst record in baseball is not only rare, but seems like a great value to boot! Note no team has played more one-run games this year than have the Phils (47). Four of those six wins over Atlanta since the Break have come by a one-run margin. 

The Phillies are probably feeling confident for a number of reasons coming into this series. One, they won yday, 6-3 over the Cubs. Two, is the head to head dominance of the Braves that we already spoke of. Three, they have Aaron Nola (their best pitcher) on the hill tonight. However, Nola has been rocked in B2B outings, giving up 12 runs in 11 1/3 IP. Prior to that, he'd been in fine form, so Phillies' fans are probably thinking "bounce back," especially with the way the team has handled Atlanta this year. But Nola has faced the Braves only one time in 2017. Furthermore, this really isn't a good price to be taking the Phillies. Not only have they been favored a NL low 29 times this season (only White Sox have been favored fewer times on the ML this yr), but they are likely to close higher on the ML here than for any other game this season. The previous high of -150 was set back on 7.8 w/ Nola on the mound facing San Diego. The Phillies lost that game 2-1. Note that the Phillies are a stunning 6-0 in one-run games vs. Atlanta this year. In all other one-run games, their record is 10-31! 

Atlanta was shut out yday, 3-0 by the Rockies. But that was after taking the opener of that series and losing the second game ... by only one run. Starter Lucas Sims joined the starting rotation this month and is coming off his best outing to date, one where he tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball against Seattle. Opponents have yet to record a single hit w/ RISP against him (0 for 11). Perhaps most impressive about the Braves is that they are 6-1 this year immediately following a shutout loss. Philly did take two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, but remember they lost the middle game by a score of 17-2. They are unworthy of this price range and Atlanta sure seems "due" to beat them at least once here. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Giants blew what was pretty clearly their best shot at taking a game in this weekend series by losing 2-1 yesterday w/ Madison Bumgarner starting. As per usual, Bumgarner did his job (allowed just five hits in 7 IP) and as per usual, the Giants offense failed to support him. Now MadBum did allow the two solo home runs, but limiting the scoring to that is pretty impressive when you consider the D'backs are tied for #3 in scoring at home w/ 5.5 runs per game. That's a big reason why the team has gone 41-23 at Chase Field this season, the second best home record in all of baseball (trailing only the Dodgers). With Chris Stratton on the hill today, the Giants are unlikely to limit the D'backs offense in the manner they did yday and it also needs to be pointed out that at 21-44 (-22.0 units!), they are one of MLB's worst road teams.

Arizona has now won five of six, including three consecutive games by one-run. They've been able to put together that win streak in spite of some paltry offensive numbers, at least compared to their usual standard. I expect the offense to break out today, but it may not even have to considering Patrick Corbin is on the hill. Over his L3 starts, Corbin has flat out been lights out w/ a 0.39 ERA and 0.728 WHIP! He's allowed just 1 run in 23 1/3 IP and most important of all is that the D'backs won all three times. Corbin does have an 0-2 TSR vs. the Giants this year, surprising given the opponent's overall level of ineptitude this season. But the last time he faced them, it was a hard luck loss as Corbin was charged w/ three unearned runs, spoiling a 10 K (season-high) performance. That was at AT&T Park and I like his chances for success even more here at home as the team is 9-1 this year as a ML home favorite of -175 to -250. 

No team has lost more at the betting window this year than have the Giants. They are down 31.7 units or seven more than the second worst team. Simply put, oddsmakers are not pricing this team as they should, which is as one of the worst teams in baseball. They are, after all, 27 games below .500. As a road underdog of +125 or higher, they are 7-19 this season dropping them to 27-57 in that range since 2015. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and are 18-28 in day games while averaging just 3.5 rpg. None of this is good news for starter Chris Stratton, who like Corbin has an impressive 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Stratton hasn't allowed a single run in his last 12 2/3 IP, but the fact he finished his last start w/ only one strikeout is a somewhat ominous sign. I look for the D'backs to complete the sweep here as they continue to try and hold onto home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game. 8* Arizona

10* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox have been humiliated in B2B losses to the Orioles this weekend, getting outscored. Going back to the final game of the Cleveland series, they've actually been outscored 36-9 over the L3 games! But this small sample size is hardly indicative of the way they've played all season. In fact, prior to the current three-game losing skid, they'd outscored their opponents by 111 runs over the course of the season. However, only once this year have they lost four consecutive games and that was out on the West Coast. They have not been swept in a series of three or more games here at Fenway at any time this season. The last two days have been real "head-scratchers" in my book as Baltimore is still only 25-39 on the road. Clearly, I'm calling for Boston to come through here and avoid the sweep.

Doug Fister will start here for the Red Sox and he happens to be coming off his finest performance of 2017. After allowing a leadoff HR, he didn't allow another hit Tuesday in Cleveland and went the distance. Will he duplicate that performance here? Not sure about that, but he probably doesn't have to. Boston is 40-24 at home this year and averaging 5.1 runs in day games. Again, I feel that the last two days have been abberrations. By any rational and objective measure, the Red Sox are the far better ballclub here. They are 7-5 this season following a game in which they had four or fewer hits. This is a top 10 offense in runs scored, batting average and OBP. I can't see them being shut down for a third straight day by a Baltimore pitching staff that is subpar to say the least. 

I would have liked to see Chris Tillman in this spot for the O's, but it will be Wade Miley instead. That's okay though as Miley has a 4.82 ERA in his career at Fenway. Most of that came as a member of the 2015 Red Sox, but as the enemy, things have gone worse for him. In two starts against Boston as the visitor, his ERA has jumped to 7.56. Overall, this has not been a good year for Miley, who has a 5.11 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in 26 starts. Out of those 26 starts, only SEVEN have been quality. He's walked at least three batters in every start in August. Keep in mind that despite ranking seventh in MLB in runs scored, the Orioles have been outscored this year by 24 runs. That speaks to how suspect this pitching staff has been and I just can't see a continuation of the last two days. 10* Boston

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): I'm kind of scratching my head over why the Dodgers would be opened so low on the money line here. Sure, this will be the first time starting for Ross Stripling, but he'll obviously be backed by the best team in baseball. Fresh off beating Milwaukee on Friday, 3-1, the Dodgers are now an almost unfathomable 91-36 w/ a +223 run differential. They are well on their way to delivering one of, if not THE, great regular seasons in MLB history. At home, they've outscored opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game thanks in large part to being - easily - #1 in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg here at Chavez Ravine). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been trending in the wrong direction for some time now. They are just 14-22 their L36 games and I don't think anyone believes they're going to win the NL Central. No need to "outthink the room" on this one. 

We should not expect Stripling to pitch long tonight. After all, he just pitched Monday (in relief) and recorded the three FINAL outs in a 6-5 win over Pittsburgh. It was the 2nd save of the season for Stripling, who typically works out of the bullpen. The last 13 times he has been used, he has not thrown more than 36 pitches. As already mentioned, this is his first time starting in '17. But it's not the first time he's started in his young career. Last year, as a rookie, he made 14 starts. Aiding his cause here is the fact he'll be facing a Brewers lineup which is batting a collective .227 over its L7 games. The Brew Crew have scored just seven runs total their last four games. When called upon, the Dodgers' bullpen is something we can count on. They've posted a 0.950 WHIP at home over the course of the entire season.

Milwaukee turns to Zach Davies in this spot. He is off B2B quality efforts, though he was a hard luck loser (to San Francisco) his last time out. Davies is one of the select few that can claim to hold a win over the Dodgers this year as he threw six scoreless innings against them back on June 4th. But that performance came at home. Here at home, the Dodgers are a preposterous 52-14, including 27-6 when priced between -175 and -250. Three starts ago, Davies did get rocked for seven runs by the Twins. While he does have some nice wins this season, including the one over the Dodgers, tonight is the tallest order he will have faced all season. The Dodgers are just too good to pass up when priced "this low." 8* LA Dodgers

10* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's rarely get an endorsement from me. After all, they've been at the bottom of the AL West all year and one could make the arguement that they've been the American League's worst team for most of 2017. But conditions are favorable tonight as they return home to host division rival Texas. First off, the A's didn't have to play Thursday. Texas did. Next, this is a revenge spot. Believe it or not, this is the first time these teams have played since May where the Rangers swept a three-game set in Arlington. Previously, they'd split six head to head matchups. If you're a regular, then you know how I love taking teams playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of 3+ games. It's just too difficult in today's game to beat the same opponent, day after day. Finally, Texas has made a pitching change here (reason for line being posted late). They now are going w/ Nick Martinez, who is not good (more on that later). The A's are the play here.

Right-hander A.J. Griffin was originally supposed to start here for the Rangers, but he was pushed back until Sunday. Perhaps the team is feeling a little "too good" about itself after taking three of four from the Angels in Anaheim to start the week. That has them as one of FIVE teams within one game of the second Wild Card spot in the AL! But let's go back and look at just how bad Martinez has been this year. He was demoted after a pair of terrible starts at the beginning of the month where he allowed a total of 12 runs in 9 1/3 IP. The team lost both games. For the year, Martinez has a 5.68 ERA in 13 starts, including 6.19 in seven on the road.

Oakland is going w/ Kendall Graveman, who has yet to drop a single decision at home this year (2-0 in six starts!). While the A's are an absolutely dreadful road team (21-41 record), they are over .500 here at home. Texas has a losing road record and the lowest team batting average on the road in all of baseball. That latter fact is good news for Graveman, who is already off B2B quality outings. Last time out, he certainly pitched well enough to win as he allowed just two runs in six innings. Unfortunately, his offense "forgot to score" in a 3-0 loss to Houston. The Oakland offense collected 27 hits the L2 games, so I don't expect a repeat of the hard-luck for Graveman tonight. This is a great spot for the A's to play spoiler, in my opinion. 10* Oakland

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the White Sox +1.5. The last two days saw the Southsiders beat the Twins top two pitchers (here at home), so I've got no fear here in fading the Tigers' Justin Verlander, who has been woeful on the road anyway. Wednesday saw Chicago beat Ervin Santana, 4-3, as James Shields and three relievers held the Twins to just three hits, enabling a late-inning come from behind effort. Yesterday was far easier as they prevailed 5-1, again holding the Twins bats in check. Maybe Minnesota is overrated, but there's no disputing that Detroit is inferior, making the current price range questionable at best. In fact, this will be just the fifth time all season that the Tigers are priced between -125 and -175 on the road. They've gone 1-3 in the previous four instances. 

Even though Verlander has a 0.682 WHIP over the course of the last three starts, he was hammered in his lone road start during that time, giving up three home runs (five runs total) in a loss at Texas. Detroit is not a good road team at all; in fact, they've been outscored this year by an average of 1.3 rpg outside of Comerica Park. Verlander's TSR is 3-10 away from home as he has a 5.24 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. While they did win yday, the Tigers have been giving up runs in bunches lately. Over the last eight games, they've allowed an average of nearly 8.0 rpg and four times during that stretch they've allowed 10+ runs. While they did sweep the White Sox the last time they faced them, that was back in June and in Detroit. The White Sox had taken 9 of the first 15 meetings as well.

Miguel Gonzalez will start here for Chicago and like Verlander, he's been enjoying a strong stretch. Tonight marks the fourth time he will have faced the Tigers this season. The one time he got to face them at home, the White Sox won, 7-3. Over his L3 starts, Gonzalez has a 0.90 ERA and 1.100 WHIP. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings, which resulted in a 3-2 win at Texas as +182 underdogs. What's really impressive about this recent stretch for Gonzalez is that he was a +182, +300 and +190 dog on the money line and the team has won two of the three starts. He's had to face a lot of the "big boys" here in the second half (Dodgers twice, Indians, Cubs, Red Sox and Houston), so facing the Tigers should be a "walk in the park" by comparison. I haven't even mentioned the wild brawl that Detroit was involved in (w/ the Yankees) yday and there could be repercussions from that. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Miami (7:10 ET): Anytime I can play against San Diego at this price, I'll jump on the opportunity. Especially if they are off a rare win as they are here. Last night saw the Padres stun the Cardinals, 4-3, as +225 ML dogs. But that singular result can't change the fact that this team has been outscored by more runs than any other in baseball (-148 run diff). Most of that damage has come on the road where they are 24-40 and -1.6 rpg. If we're being honest (I always like to be!) here, as bad as the Padres' record is right now (57-70), it ought to be even worse. Based on run differential, they have a win expectancy of only 47 games. That 10-game differential between actual and expected wins is by far the largest in the National League! Clearly, I'm on the other side tonight.

Everyone besides the Nats is playing for second in the NL East this year. Really, it's a pointless distinction as none of the other four teams in the division are in serious playoff contention. But tip your cap to Miami, who is now .500 after taking three of four from the lowly Phillies. Overall, it was a 5-2 road trip for the Fish. Now they get to return home and play a favorable opponent. I'm impressed with this team keeping it together considering the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. Giancarlo Stanton, the other cornerstone, has been darn near unconscious at the plate as yday saw him slug his 47th home run (#1 in MLB) and 14th in August. Overcoming a five-run deficit on Thursday afternoon shows me that the Marlins believe they can get into Wild Card contention. 

I probably should talk about the pitching matchup. As we know, San Diego struggles on the road. Those struggles even extend to Travis Wood, who has made just two road starts for the team since coming over from Kansas City around the All-Star Break. Neither start has gone well either as Wood has a 8.10 ERA and 1.900 WHIP and the team has lost both times. Admittedly, Wood was sharp at home his last time out, allowing only an unearned run (over 7 IP) in a somewhat shocking upset of Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. But that was at home, obviously. Marlins' starter Adam Conley is also off a strong start as he allowed just one run on three hits Sunday in his own upset of Jacob deGrom and the Mets. Plus, he had 11 strikeouts, which is far more impressive than the two Wood had vs. Washington. Miami has won four of Conley's six starts since he was recalled from Triple A. Conley has a 1.13 ERA in two career appearances vs. San Diego while Wood has a 7.92 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Miami. Let's also not forget that the Padres offense ranks dead last in the league in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. 8* Miami

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been on the Halos in each of the first three games of this series and unfortunately come up short twice. Last night, it was a 7-5 loss (in 10 innings). But I'll maintain that Los Angeles remains the better team here even though they have a losing record against the Rangers this year (5-7) and an inferior run differential. A big key tonight is Texas sending Martin Perez to the bump. Perez is not a good starter and despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 outings, he still sports a 5.19 ERA and 1.562 WHIP for the year. The Rangers' bullpen has been bad on the road all year as well and is currently w/o one of its key components. Third baseman Joey Gallo is also still out. This is the 4th time in 7 days that the Rangers come into a game at exactly .500. They've lost each of the previous three occasions. 

The Angels will go w/ Troy Scribner Thursday. Again, the names in this starting rotation may not jump off the page at you, but there's been some really solid production out of these relatively unknown arms. The Angels are currently #5 in runs allowed in the American League, trailing only the "obvious" four playoff teams. As I've discussed previously, Texas has the worst road batting average in all of baseball (.222) and it's not even close. That will certainly benefit Scribner, who comes in w/ a 3.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in two starts, both resulting in wins for the team. The last one came on 8.9 against Baltimore, who he held to just one run (a solo HR) on two hits in 5 IP. Scribner has mostly pitched at Triple-A Salt Lake this year where he's gone 11-4. Given Texas' year-long struggles to hit the ball on the road, yday's 13-run output should certainly be taken w/ a grain of salt. I expect Scribner to pitch well in this spot.

Perez was tagged for six runs in his last start, but got a break as the offense broke loose for 17 runs in what ended up being an easy win over the lowly White Sox. But that was in Arlington. It was the third time in five starts that Perez allowed six or more runs. While the other two starts were both good, the overall numbers indicate that Perez is more like the pitcher we saw last Saturday vs. Chicago. Also, one of those two quality starts took place in an NL park, making it easier on him as he got to face the pitcher. In fact, take away National League opponents and Perez has just one quality start since the All-Star Break. He's 2-4 w/ a 3.53 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels. The only time he faced them this season was back in April. He allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. I still believe in the Angels. 8* LA Angels

8* Run Line Washington (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. Stephen Strasburg, plus an additional 1.5 runs? Thank you, very much! Now obviously there's a reason for this and that reason is he'll be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this evening. Keuchel has dropped only two decisions this year for the Astros (11-2 in 16 starts) and as per usual has been outstanding here at home (1.35 ERA, 0.857 WHIP). But Strasburg is every bit his equal (if not better) and certainly arrives in better form for tonight's series finale between division leaders. Whereas Strasburg has a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP his L3 starts, Keuchel is at 4.58 and 1.471 respectively. Runs figure to be at a premium here and let's be sure to note that Houston actually has a losing record since the All-Star Break (17-20). Washington is 23-13 its L36 games despite the loss last night. The run line makes a ton of sense here.

The Nats have actually owned this Interleague matchup through the years, going 13-2 head to head w/ the Astros. They'd beaten them nine straight times after Tuesday's 4-3 victory. But Houston was able to bounce back last night, winning 6-1, thanks to hitting three homers. Strasburg doesn't allow many of those, however, so that offensive weapon could be out the door tonight. Strasburg did allow one HR his last time out, his only mistake, in a shocking and hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Padres. After the 1st inning HR, he allowed just two more hits over six innings and finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Notable is that was Strasburg's return from a stint on the DL. His last four starts that have NOT been cut short by injury have all been quality ones. For the record, the Nats own the best road record in baseball (40-24) and are 29-17 off a loss this season.

Keuchel had his own stint on the DL recently. He was roughed up right before that, giving up eight runs as a -250 ML favorite against the White Sox. But since returning, he's been back to his usual dominant self. Still, he has a 5.73 ERA in two career starts vs. Washington and let's not forget the NL team benefits here from the addition of the DH to their lineup. Even w/o the DH, the Nationals rank fourth in runs scored, third in batting average, sixth in OBP and 2nd in slugging. Curiously, Houston has been a better team on the road this season as they've actually lost money here at Minute Maid Park. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): By no means am I enamored w/ the Twins (-33 run diff). They lost last night to the White Sox despite a seemingly big starting pitching edge in their favor (Santana vs. Shields). However, it's the same thing on paper tonight and I don't see them losing again. This is actually the finale of a FIVE-game series between the AL Central rivals (played a doubleheader Monday) that has seen each side win twice. The key here is Chicago's Derek Holland might just be the worst starter in all of MLB. In 24 starts this season, he has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.720 WHIP. But that doesn't even begin to tell the story of how horrible he's been recently. He's given up seven runs in B2B starts despite lasting a total of just 4 2/3 innings! Jose Berrios has been a fine #2 (behind Santana) for the Twins this year and the road team should roll here. 

Last night marked the first time this season that Minnesota lost as a ML road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. They were 4-0 previously and 7-0 the L3 seasons! Like Houston (discussed elsewhere in this package), the Twins are one of the few teams that have actually performed better on the road than at home this season (Cleveland and Washington are the others). Now that really hasn't been the case when Berrios is on the hill (4-6 TSR on the road), but tonight's starter is off a gem where he outdueled Arizona's Zack Greinke. Last Saturday saw Berrios toss seven shutout innings of two hit ball as the Twins won 5-0 over the D'backs as +130 ML underdogs. He has gotten to face the White Sox only one time this season and not surprisingly he dominated them as back on 6.21 he went eight innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. Like last time out, he finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. 

The fact that Holland has remained in the White Sox rotation all season speaks to just how bad said rotation is. The Twins are certainly happy to see him again as they are Talready 3-0 against him in 2017. The last two times, they've touched him up for seven runs in five innings or less. That means Holland has an ERA of 9.64 against the Twins in '17, which also includes him pitching 1/3 of an inning of relief on Monday. Even then, he managed to give up three runs! Why the White Sox would use him in relief in that spot, I do not know. What I do know is that Holland's career ERA is 5.68 against the Twins and he's 2-6 in 13 starts. So he's never really pitched well against this particular opponent. Chicago is a lousy team, going nowhere fast, while Minnesota is trying to hold down the second Wild Card in the American League (three teams within one game of them!). This is a "must win" for the Twins. 8* Minnesota

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): No surprise here; I'm sticking w/ the Halos here as I believe they're the superior team in this AL West rivalry. Now, normally, I might make a case for Texas due to their YTD run differential of +28, which is the best among the eight teams currently competing for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. But as I've noted many times before, regression (in terms of wins and losses) was set to take hold on the Rangers from the start of 2017 and their season has played out exactly as I had anticipated. Remember, LY's team that led the AL in wins (95) only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! Simply put, they were "due" to win fewer games this year and barring a 36-1 finish to the season (ain't happening!), that will happen. As for the Angels, right now, I believe they are going to be the team that gets that last playoff spot. 

I've been on the home team in both games thus far and so has the smart money. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps fading Cole Hamels on Monday was not the best idea. But a 10-1 win last night was "more like it" as the Angels scored runs in all of the final four innings they came up to bat. They've now won 10 of their previous 13 games and yday's 16 hits were a season-high. Something I included in yday's analysis still rings true today and that's the Rangers are the worst hitting team in baseball on the road. It's not even close as their .220 batting average is 14 points lower than the next worst team! To put that gap in its proper perspective, note that it's larger than the one that exists between the 18th and 29th place teams! 

So with Texas' woes at the plate persisting, expect things to be fairly easy on Angels' starter Andrew Heaney tonight. While his 1st start of 2017 (coming off Tommy John surgery) didn't go so well, it did come at Baltimore, a team that can score in bunches at home. Heaney allowed FOUR home runs last Friday, which isn't a great sign, but I feel he's still worth backing here. The Rangers' counter with an Andrew of their own, Cashner, and he lost as a -210 money line favorite his last time out! That was against the White Sox as he walked four batters and gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP. He has a 3-7 TSR on the road, so that combined with his offense's issues means another loss is very likely for tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals were embarrassed last night by the Padres, losing 12-4. While it was their third loss in a row, I fully anticipate the Redbirds bouncing back tonight here at home. As stated many times before, San Diego - records aside - is the worst team in baseball. They have the worst run differential (-145) in either league and have been particularly brutal on the road, getting outscored by a whopping 1.6 runs per game. No team has a worse run differential away from home. There have been only FIVE times all season where they have beaten the same opponent, consecutive days, on the road. Three of those came at the expense of the Giants (twice) and Phillies. The Cardinals are in a pennant race (currently trail Cubs by 4.5 gms) and don't dare drop another one to such an inferior opponent.

What happened last night was a very rare power surge from the Padres. While not as rare as the solar eclipse we all saw Monday, you simply aren't going to find San Diego scoring 12 runs very often. Not only did that match their season-high (set previously twice, both time against the Giants), but it was more runs scored than their previous five games - combined. Eight of the 12 runs came late, breaking open what had been a 4-4 tie entering the seventh inning. You have to remember that the Padres still rank dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. Thus, I look for Cards starter Luke Weaver to be the beneficiary of some good ol' "Padres regression" here. Weaver has started only twice previously this season (last time was 8.2), but did throw two shutout innings in relief last Thursday, helping his team overcome a five-run deficit and beat Pittsburgh 11-7. 

Mirroring his team's awful play on the road, San Diego starter Jhoulys Chacin does not have good numbers outside of Petco Park this season. While his TSR might be 5-7, his ERA and WHIP are 7.05 and 1.650 respectively. Arguably the Padres' best starter, Chacin has had literally zero success vs. the Cards as he's 0-4 w/ a 5.81 ERA against them in five previous tries. While it's been St. Louis giving up plenty of runs lately, for the year, they only allow an average of 4.0 per game here at home. They are also 22-9 the L3 seasons after three or more consecutive losses. This is a tailor-made spot for the vastly superior team to bounce back Wednesday night. 10* St. Louis

6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): On paper, the Indians appeared to have what looked like a pretty significant edge in starting pitching yday vs. Boston. It was Carlos Carrasco facing off w/ Doug Fister, but it was Fister that came up big w/ a one-hitter in a surprise 9-1 victory for the Red Sox. While it's unusual to find the AL East leaders in this price range (closed at +165 last night), I'll jump in against them tonight as they must deal w/ Corey Kluber and I just can't see the Tribe losing B2B games as big favorites here at Progressive Field. This could very well be the first time all year that the Red Sox close at +175 or higher on the ML and it's more than justified considering Kluber has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts. Last night's final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the Red Sox scored six run late, most of that off the Cleveland bullpen. 

You probably don't need me to tell you that Kluber is having himself another downright filthy season. He is 8-1 w/ a 2.09 ERA and 0.860 WHIP at home. Last time out, he saw his streak of 14 consecutive starts w/ at least 8 K's end, but only due to having to exit early due to a mild ankle sprain. The Indians won anyway, 10-1, as Kluber gave up a solo home run in 5 1/3 IP and little else. That streak of 14 games w/ 8+ K's was one shy of Randy Johnson's MLB record, by the way. Since the start of June, Kluber has an other-worldly 155-18 KW ratio. Even after exiting that last start early, he remains 3rd among all American League starters in strikeouts. He is second in both ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.924) and the numbers only seem to getting better as the season wears on. Opponents are batting just .174 against him his L15 starts! His 14 complete games and five shutouts over the L4 seasons are both AL-bests. Boston knows all too well about how domninant Kluber can be as the last time they faced him (LY's ALDS), they were shutout for seven innings and held to three hits. 

Can Boston's Drew Pomeranz repeat the performance we saw from Fister last night? Unlikely. While he didn't give up any runs in his last start, Pomeranz lasted only 3 1/3 innings as he too was battling an injury (back spasms). He may be unbeaten (6-0) in 12 starts dating back to June 11th, but all things considered, I'll take Kluber over Pomeranz every time, especially if the latter is less than 100 percent. Cleveland's bullpen issues (Andrew Miller injured) don't matter as much here due to Kluber's ability to consistently pitch deep into games. The most significant injury heading into this matchup is on the Boston side as Jackie Bradley Jr is out after injuring his thumb on a slide in yday's game. 6* Cleveland

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels got a ton of action heading into last night's series opener w/ Texas. Though it certainly appeared to be sharp dollars accounting for the line move (I was on them too!), they ended up losing 5-3 and in retrospect, betting against Cole Hamels may have been a miscalculation. Still, it was a short-handed Rangers team coming into Anaheim and the Angels had won 9 of 11. The visitors are still w/o two valuable pieces, 3B Joey Gallo and RP Matt Bush, both of whom were placed on the 10-day DL after a nasty collision Sunday. There will be no Hamels to save them tonight and I remain pretty adamant that the Halos are the better ballclub here. I think the offense "wakes back up" here against Tyson Ross, who despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, is struggling mightly. 

In today's edition of "a pitcher's record can be highly misleading," let me introduce Mr. Ross of Texas. The team may have won each of his previous three starts, but that's in spite of the pitcher producing a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP! Rarely will you see a pitcher have an unblemished team start record during a span in which his WHIP is north of 2.000. So Ross is certainly "due" to drop one. He hasn't made it a full six innings in any start since the All-Star Break and control issues have been a major issue of late, especially last time out where he walked SIX batters in just 4 1/3 IP. That was against the lowly White Sox, no less. Ironically, the last time you could say Ross pitched "well" was against these Angels (back on 7.8), but that was at home. He is winless in four road starts this year, thanks in large part to an 8.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP. 

Now Angels starter Ricky Nolasco has certainly not pitched much better than Ross of late and has been plagued by wild inconsistency all season long. He didn't pitch well against Texas either time he faced them in '17, nor does he have a good career track record against them. But he does come off a nice win last Wednesday at Washington where he allowed just two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 IP. He should benefit here from the fact that Texas' hitters have a collective .219 batting average on the road this season, which is - easily - the worst in all of MLB. Second worst is Arizona and they're at .234. Only three teams - San Diego, Philadelphia and Oakland - have scored fewer runs on the road this year than have the Rangers. In a big national TV game (ESPN), I expect Nolasco and the Angels to "show up" big time. 8* LA Angels

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): This is a big-time revenge spot for the Rays, who dropped three of four up in Toronto last week w/ one of the games having this identical pitching matchup. Originially, the Blue Jays were going to start Marcus Stroman in this spot, but they've changed to Chris Rowley. While Rowley may have a 2-0 TSR, a 1.451 WHIP certainly isn't that impressive as he walked Rays last Thursday. Opposing him again will be Chris Archer, Tampa Bay's best pitcher, and considering they've lost 8 of 10, this is a virtual "must-win" for the home team. Archer pitched well enough to win on Thursday, certainly better than Rowley, as he struck out 10 (no walks) in seven innings (did give up 2 HR's). I think it's important to note that Toronto has been priced higher than +175 five times this season and has gone 0-5 in those games.

A lack of hitting has really hurt the Rays in August. Even when they won for me Sunday, they scored only three times. They were fortunate in that Blake Snell shut out the Mariners, however, I think Archer is capable of doing the same here. Toronto has hardly hit the cover off the baseball lately as their team batting average is a pretty woeful .217 the L7 games after being swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Archer is quite familiar w/ this Jays team, having faced them 23x in his career, and his ERA is a solid 3.16. Other than Josh Donaldson, who hit both HR's, the Jays managed just three other hits against Archer, who has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. His last six times out, he has a 51-7 KW ratio.

The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League is wide open. These AL East foes are two of the eight teams currently separated by just five games. Toronto happens to be in the "back of the pack" right now and their -81 run differential for the year all but confirms they are the worst of the lot. In fact, among all AL clubs, only the White Sox and Oakland have worse run differentials than the Jays. Toronto is also 4-11 when playing w/ a day off this year. Meanwhile, TB is 3-1 when off a shutout victory. I do believe that we're likely to see an uptick in offensive productions from the Rays here in the short-term (how can we not?), especially w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the fold. Despite what may have transpired last week, the Rays are the better team here and w/ their ace pitching tonight at home, I expect that to be apparent. 6* Tampa Bay

10* LA Angels: Two of the eight teams (separated by only five games!) in the American League fighting for that second Wild Card open up the week w/ a critical four-game set in Anaheim. Weeks ago, I said that it was the Angels that could be the team that breaks out from this loaded pack and sure enough they've made me look pretty smart by winning 9 of 11, including a one-run victory at Baltimore on Sunday. The Rangers are also playing well entering Monday; they've won 8 of 11, but did lose yday (at home) to the lowly White Sox. Texas remains an interesting case study in regression as LY they led the AL in wins, but did so in spite of a measley +8 run differential. This year, their run diff is +35 (only one of the eight teams w/ a positive run diff currently), but they're a game below .500! While recent numbers look impressive for them, note all those games came at home. For the Angels, this is their return home following a nine-game road trip. I expect them to play well and they're the better team overall. 

Texas is probably feeling pretty good about itself w/ Cole Hamels set to be on the mound this evening. But even though he's 8-1 (9-6 TSR) and the team has won each of his L3 starts, he also has an ERA of 4.00 on the road this year. He's pitched very well against the Angels this year, giving up just one run in two starts (14 2/3 IP) , though the team did lose the one here in Anaheim. Let's note that the Rangers are just 26-33 overall on the road this year w/ their bullpen posting terrible numbers, such as a 5.30 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. They team may also be w/o two key contributors tonight as 3B Joey Gallo and reliever Matt Bush ran into each other yday, resulting in concussions for both. Reportedly, neither made the trip to Anaheim last night. Though the Rangers scored 17 runs on Saturday, having to settle for a split w/ the White Sox (4-game series) over the weekend isn't exactly inspiring. 

Texas comes in having scored the third most runs in the American League, trailing only the Astros and Yankees. But surprisingly, the Angelss have allowed the fourth fewest runs and are even ahead of the Astros. Tyler Skaggs has yet to win since coming back to the rotation at the start of the month, but his ERA in three starts is 2.94. Last time out, he allowed two solo HR's in a hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Nationals. But Skaggs should expect more run support this time as the offense scored 5+ runs in six of the nine games on the just completed road trip, doing so despite Andrelton Simmons being mired in a 0 for 19 slump (which should turn around sooner rather than later). Furthermore, the Halos are 55-26 their L81 games as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 10* LA Angels

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets +1.5. Even after dropping five of their last six (were just swept in Minnesota), the D'backs are still in Wild Card position in the National League, though their margin for error is now growing slimmer by the day. Expect "the world" to be on them tonight as they visit the Mets, who have lost six of their last seven games. But this road trip has made clear that Arizona is simply NOT the same team on the road as their runs per game average dips by nearly a run and a half compared to what they score at Chase Field. As a result, their record away from home is only 28-33 and that includes a 3-6 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range. I think the Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss here, so take the +1.5.

In the interest of full disclosure, the Mets let me down yday, losing 6-4 to the Marlins. That was w/ Jacob deGrom pitching. They did at least make things interesting late - by scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, but alas, it was not enough. The key play in the game was Miami's Dee Gordon reaching base on an infield single as Giancarlo Stanton quickly followed w/ a 3-run HR. This has obviously become a "lost" season in Queens, but that doesn't mean you won't still find some value on the Metropolitans from time to time. Here, they'll send Robert Gsellman to the mound. This will be just his second start since coming off the DL. The first came at Yankee Stadium, which was a tough spot, and he only allowed four hits in 5 1/3 IP. He did allow three runs - one unearned - and generall speaking when he's not facing one of the "big boys" (like a Los Angeles or Washington), he's pitched okay.

Arizona will send Taijuan Walker to the bump and he hasn't won in two months. Lately, he's simply been pretty bad as his ERA is 5.62 and his WHIP is 1.562 the L3 starts. Overall, the team has lost the last SEVEN times he's pitched. That's not good, nor is the team's hitting over the previous week. They're averaging just 2.9 rpg w/ a collective .217 batting average. While they did sweep the Mets back in May (at Chase Field), two of those games were decided by one run. Arizona has played the third-most one-run games in all of baseball w/ 39. The way in which they got dominated over the weekend (by Minnesota!) is an ominous sign as they were outscored 27-8 in the three games. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Indians are a house of fire right now as they've won eight of nine including both games so far here in Kansas City (I was on them both times). They now have the third best overall run differential in MLB (trailing only the Dodgers and Houston) and finally are starting to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the AL Central (6 gm lead on Minnesota, 7.5 over KC). No other team in the division has a run diff better than -31 currently, so there really is no debating that the Tribe is clearly the class of the Central. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, pitching has been the key to this run and that should continue today w/ Danny Salazar on the mound. Again, I expect the Royals to have no answer. 

Cleveland is #1 in the AL on the runs allowed side of the ledger, something that should serve them well moving forward. They've allowed 38 fewer runs than Boston, who has given up the 2nd fewest number. All but one other AL team has allowed 70 more runs this season than Cleveland, who has allowed just one run in this series and three or fewer in eight of the last nine games. Now it's Salazar's turn and he comes in flashing awesome form. His L5 starts have seen him allow five runs total (1.39 ERA) and his KW ratio is 46-9. He dominated the Twins on Tuesday, striking out 10 while allowing just one run on three hits (went seven innings). If that's not enough, Cleveland's bullpen also sports the lowest ERA in the league. This has been an excellent road team all season as they are actually outscoring opponents by a full run per game away from Progressive Field. They are 8-2 on the current trip (final game today) and an AL-best 20-8 since July 21st. 

Meanwhile, the Royals are trending in the opposite direction as they have lost 12 of 18 games here in August and the culprit has been their starting pitching, which has a 5.99 ERA for the month. So, as you might expect, we have a pitching mismatch on our hands here as KC will go w/ Jason Hammel in this spot. I can't see Hammel standing up to Salazar here, not after the former allowed three home runs (to the A's!) in his last start. Hammel also has a 4-10 team start record here at home. KC has been outscored at home this season and simply is not in their division rival's class. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays burned me yet again last night as they fell to Seattle 7-6. It was their eighth loss in the last nine games and fourth in a row. I've been on them for each of the last three, all of which have been as ML favorites. Yes, I've talked about the lack of offense before, but late last night we finally started to see signs of this lineup waking up. Though the rally ultimately fell one run short, the team did fight back and scored four times over the final four frames. It matched their best offensive output in the L15 games (scored just 30 runs total). The Rays still have yet to beat Seattle this year (0-5), a head to head record that makes little sense considering how the two Wild Card contenders profile rather evenly. TB even has a slightly better YTD run differential. I'm sticking w/ them one more time today and calling for them to avoid the sweep. 

Eight teams are now separated by just four games in the chase for that final Wild Card spot in the American League. Among those eight teams, only Texas has a positive run differential. Seattle has now won four straight to get to two games above .500, but let us not forget they'd lost five in a row prior to the current win streak. This is an average team at best, one that is below average w/ Yovani Gallardo (starts today) on the mound. Gallardo checks in w/ a 7-12 TSR as his ERA and WHIP are 6.41 and 1.585 respectively. He's been even worse recently, particularly in his last start where he allowed eight runs in just four innings of work. The Mariners lost that game, 11-3 to Baltimore. Gallardo hasn't gone a full six innings in six consecutive starts.

A grand slam (from Mitch Haniger) is what did the Rays in yday, but hopefully we'll be in better hands today w/ Blake Snell on the mound. Snell is off his 1st win of the season (in 16 starts!), but that's misleading when you consider that the team has won each of the last three times the lefty has started. That includes wins over both Houston and Cleveland as ML underdogs. The current stretch is easily the Rays worst of the season, but the "good" news is that they have not lost more than five games in a row at any point this season. The current streak is at four and they were 9-3 coming off three consecutive losses before this streak began. I simply can't see them being swept by the Mariners for a second time this season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match between these two NL East also-rans w/ the Mets looking to win two in a row for just the second time here in August. Last night's win was all about "one big inning" as they scored seven times in the sixth, an inning where Miami also happened to commit three errors. Today, they have Jacob deGron toeing the rubber and I like their chances. The Marlins are deGrom's most common opponent (11 starts) and he has a 3.46 ERA against them. While off a rare rough outing his last time out (allowed 5 ER in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Yankees), deGrom has been the stalwart of this Mets rotation w/ a 15-9 TSR overall and he's got a 2.49 ERA and 1.147 WHIP here at home. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts.

Compared to the Mets, Miami had been playing well of late. Going into yday's game, they'd won six of seven and took the series opener 3-1. But this is by no means any kind of strong outfit; in fact, they've been at least two games under .500 since late April. Adam Conley pitches for the Fish today and he comes in w/ a 5.26 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 12 starts this year. He did pitch well his last time out, a quality effort vs. San Francisco (who is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, mind you), but notice also that Conley did not strike out a single batter. He is 2-0 against the Mets this year w/ both starts coming all the way back in early April. One was at deGrom's expense. But the bottom line is that this is a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts. I feel today's game happens to be a huge pitching mismatch in the Mets' favor.

The April 15th faceoff w/ Conley is the only time deGrom has started against Miami this year. He certainly pitched well enough to win back on April 13th as he delivered 13 K's (same # as Conley has in his last four starts combined) and allowed just two runs (both solo HR's) in 7 IP. In my opinion, deGrom is due for a better success rate. His TSR over his L7 starts is just 4-3, but he has a 53:10 KW ratio over that time, not to mention a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. He remains an elite pitcher, one that the Marlins will not have an answer for on Sunday. 10* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (7:15 ET): Despite having just played a doubleheader the day before, the Indians had no problem with a rested Royals team on Friday, winning 10-1 in the opener of a three-game set. It was the Tribe's seventh win in the last eight games, most of them blowouts, as we're (finally) starting to see them pull away in the American League Central. If you're a regular client of mine, then you read several weeks ago how I predicted that Cleveland would start to do just that. Though the gap between them and the rest of the division remains at a modest six games, the Indians are significantly better than the field. That's confirmed by the fact they are +128 in run differential (4th best in MLB) and no other AL Central team even has outscored its opponents this year. Despite being a game over .500, the Royals are -26 in run diff and I see another big win for the division leader today. 

KC had no answer for Corey Kluber last night, managing just the one run on six hits off him in 5 1/3 IP. Even Kluber leaving early (ankle injury) couldn't do the Royals any good. Of course, Kluber isn't the only reason that Cleveland leads the American League in the runs allowed side of the ledger (bodes well moving forward). They have MLB's top bullpen (in terms of ERA) and a starting rotation that is now at full strength. Tonight it will be Trevor Bauer going as he looks to make it five straight quality starts. Last time out, despite giving up 3 HR's (all solo shots), Bauer beat Boston as he struck out 11 and didn't give up any more runs. The Royals are hardly an offensive juggernaut as they rank 21st in runs scored and 27th in on base percentage. 

Last night saw the Indians lineup hand Ian Kennedy his shortest start since May. Tonight, they face Jason Vargas. While Vargas has pitched well against Cleveland in the past, overall we're talking about a pitcher that has struggled recently. Since the start of July, he's pitched seven times. Three of those he's allowed 6 ER. Cleveland's offense has started to wake up w/ 19 runs scored the last two games and while they're a hot team, KC is just the opposite as they've dropped 13 of 20 including 8 of 12. They are 4-6 after allowing 10+ runs in their previous game this season and Cleveland remains a deadly road team at 36-26 overall w/ just 3.9 runs per game allowed. 8* Cleveland

10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): The Rays have now let me down each of the last two days, but here is where the slump will end. Last night's 7-1 loss means they have even more revenge to exact against the Mariners as the home team came into this series already looking a for a little "payback" for a three-game sweep they suffered out in Safeco Field back in early June. The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League remains very wide open w/ eight teams separated by only three games. Only one of the eight (Texas) currently has a positive run differential. So I reject the notion that Seattle is somehow significantly better here or even "matches up well" with Tampa Bay. Rather we have two comparable teams and I'll again try w/ the one that's at home and this time should enjoy a nice edge in the starting pitching department.

The Rays' offense has admittedly been dreadful of late. They've managed only 24 runs in the last 14 games and six of those came in one game, their last win, which was Tuesday. But perhaps facing Ariel Miranda might begin to reverse their fortune at the plate? The Seattle starter checks in w/ an 8.21 ERA and 1.565 WHIP his L3 starts and he's allowed 4+ ER in all but one of his L6 starts. Last time out, Miranda had some major control issues as he walked six batters in a 4-2 loss to the Angels. Furthermore, the long ball has given him some trouble as he's allowed 8 HR's total his L4 starts. While he tossed a complete game against the Rays two months ago, remember that was at home. On the road, he has an ERA of 6.25 and a WHIP of 1.407. The fact that his TSR is 8-4 away from home should be considered very lucky. 

In yday's analysis, I spoke of the notion that TB's production w/ RISP is bound to start moving to the mean. Over those L24 games, Rays' hitters are now an almost unfathomable 8 for 84 (.095!) when they have RISP! Kevin Kiermaier returned to the lineup last night, batting leadoff, and while it made little difference, I expect that to change moving forward. Kiermaier is also a difference-maker in the field. On the mound, the Rays will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, who is off a quality start as he held Toronto to just two runs and three hits in 6 IP on Sunday. Odorizzi was tagged for eight runs when he faced Seattle two months ago, but five of the runs were unearned. Since the All-Star Break, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in every start. Sure, he hasn't always pitched deep into games, but that's okay considering how the Rays' bullpen has performed recently. Following three or more losses, the team is 9-4 this season. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Two playoff hopefuls will meet at Coors Field this weekend and while Milwaukee comes in having won four straight (and is the more "desperate" team), I give the edge to Colorado. As always, the Rockies are leading MLB in runs scored in home games and as a result they've gone 37-23 here. The Brew Crew started its week by sweeping Pittsburgh in a short two-game set at home before having yday off. But let us not be quick to forget that at this time last week, they were mired in a long losing streak, one that would reach six games before B2B wins over the lowly Reds. They got to play their last seven games at home - all against sub-.500 foes - and I think they'll find the Rockies to be pretty rude hosts this weekend; certainly tonight. 

The Rockies did play yday and got embarrassed (here at home), losing to Atlanta 10-4. But that came a day after a 17-2 win, remember. While their record is sub-par after allowing 10+ runs this year, I nevertheless see this as a big bounce back spot. Yes, I'm aware that Nolan Arenado seemed to reinjure his hand yday (X-rays turned out to be negative), but I just don't think you can keep an offense which averages 6.2 rpg at home down for long. Certainly not w/ Matt Garza on the mound. Milwaukee's starter for Friday has a 7.54 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts and his career numbers here in Coors Field are certainly an even bigger concern. Garza has started three times here, lost every time, and his ERA is 8.82. His recent ground ball/fly ball and KW rates are certainly a reason for concern coming into tonight's game. 

Colorado will counter w/ German Marquez, who is certainly more comfortable pitching in this environment. In fact, he has a 7-2 TSR at home and a 1.278 WHIP. He's coming off his worst start of the second half, but I fully anticipate him bouncing back as prior to allowing five runs in Miami last week, Marquez had delivered SIX consecutive quality outings! These teams have not met since the 1st series of the year when Colorado took three of four at Miller Park. That set the tone for this surprising season from the Rockies, who are still #2 in net units (behind the Dodgers obviously) and fighting to host the NL Wild Card game come October. Milwaukee is actually third in net units, but they are also just 6-10 when riding a win streak of 3+ games. 8* Colorado

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Certainly, it has not been a good stretch of baseball for the Rays, who find themselves rapidly sinking in the wide open chase for that second Wild Card in the American League. They held the coveted position at the All-Star Break, but have gone just 13-20 since then and have lost six of their last seven. After a four-game stay in Toronto (went 1-3), tonight they return home to face similarly slumping Seattle and will have revenge on their mind for a three-game sweep that took place at Safeco Field back in early June. Before beating Baltimore each of the L2 days, the Mariners had lost five in a row themselves and while this is a .500 team (61-61), they've actually been outscored by a slightly wider margin this year than have the Rays. The road has been particularly unkind to tonight's starter Erasmo Ramirez.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Rays Thurs afternoon. They were tied w/ Toronto 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, which is when they allowed a two-run HR to Justin Smoak. It was a very disappointing loss in the sense that they actually outhit the Jays (11-6), but ended up stranding 14 runners on base. I did mention how offense (or rather lack of it!) has been a concern for this club of late as the last 13 games have seen them score only 23 runs while being shutout FIVE different times! That's obviously not good, but hope could be on the horizon in the form of the pitcher they face this evening. As mentioned above, Erasmo Ramirez has really struggled on the road this year as he's winless in five starts to go along w/ a 10.35 ERA and 1.950 WHIP. 

Not only did Tampa Bay lose close yday, but before that their previous three losses had all come by one-run margins. So they're "due" for some good fortune to go their way, at least in my estimation. Masked by the poor offensive performance is the fact that their bullpen has been outstanding this month, in particular Steve Cishek, who ironically came to the team from Seattle in a trade that included Ramirez! While Ramirez will be motivated here, his road struggles are too pronounced to overcome. TB counters w/ Austin Pruitt, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in his L3 starts. Take away one bad showing at Yankee Stadium on 7.28 and Pruitt has allowed only four runs in 20 IP this year. He's had to go up against some brutal competition recently, namely Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber (all former Cy Young winners!), so dueling w/ Ramirez should be a "walk in the park" for him. I have to believe that the Rays hitting is bound to improve, specifically their horrid .105 mark w/ RISP (8 for 76) those L23 games. As you may now, a team's batting average when RISP will always tend to float back towards the mean. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. The Bucs really let me down last night by blowing a 5-1 lead and losing 11-7. The blame - pretty clearly - lies at the feet of the bullpen for that one, specifically Joaquin Benoit, who has really struggled here since coming over from Philadelphia via trade. Note that Pittsburgh had the same # of hits as the Cards did yday (15), but did themselves no favors leaving the bases loaded in the sixth and then two RISP in the seventh. Perhaps predictably, the ML has "flipped" for tonight's game as the home team now finds itself as the underdog after drawing some serious action for yday's series opener. I'll take advantage of that by going w/ the RL as I see the Bucs doing no worse than a one-run loss here.

Remember that St. Louis came into this series as losers of three straight. They'll have Carlos Martinez on the hill tonight and while he does rank in the Top 10 in ERA, strikeouts and opposing batting average among all NL starters, note that the team has gone only 12-12 in his 24 starts. Though he's off B2B quality outings, those came against Kansas City and Atlanta, two light-hitting teams. Martinez is also particularly susceptible to 1st inning meltdowns as he's allowed 18 ER in the first frame this season. He's faced Pittsburgh once this year, and while he pitched well (allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP), the team lost - by a single run. The Cardinals have played 41 one-run games this year, 2nd most overall, so that's yet another reason to gravitate towards the RL tonight.

Pittsburgh has now lost five in a row and finds themselves four games back of the Cards plus 5.5 back of the first place Cubs. They had gotten back to .500 before this losing streak began. But after a seven-game road trip, they're back home now and that should suit Friday starter Trevor Williams well as he's posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.064 WHIP here at PNC Park. His last time pitching here, he allowed just a single hit in seven innings of shutout ball. Another thing to like about Williams is that he is not very prone to giving up home runs. He's allowed just two in his previous 11 starts. Williams was actually the one who beat Martinez back on 7.16, allowing only two runs. He's never lost to the Cardinals in four all-time appearances, posting a solid 3.50 ERA. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Both of these NL Central rivals are reeling as they start a critical weekend set in the Steel City. St. Louis was as hot as any team in baseball (won 8 straight from 8.5 - 8.12), but that changed once they had to deal w/ the Red Sox, who beat them both Tuesday and Wednesday. Last night was particularly painful as they blew a four-run lead, giving up three runs in the ninth. As for the Pirates, they've now lost four in a row after getting swept in a short two-game set at Milwaukee. Tonight marks a return home though after a seven-game trip that also saw them have to play in two unfamiliar, American League venues. Alarms were set off for me in this series opener as there's been a key line move on the Bucs, who I'll back here. 

Adam Wainwright has been getting it done for many years now in the Cards rotation and he comes into tonight having allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. He's won his last five decisions. But that WL record is a tad bit misleading when you consider Wainwright has lasted a total of just eight innings his L2 starts, posting a 1-8 KW ratio (not a misprint!). He also has not pitched well - at all - on the road this season. Despite a 6-5 TSR, he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.666 WHIP away from Busch Stadium. So he should be thankful to have that team start record and really the fact that the team is 14-8 in all of his starts this year seems pretty fortunate considering his numbers. He also didn't throw a single pitch above 90 MPH his last time out due to elbow soreness.  Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright is 13-7 all-time vs. Pittsburgh (29 starts) despite a 4.11 ERA. In 16 games at PNC Park, his ERA is 5.23.

Pittsburgh also blew a four-run lead yday, losing 7-6 to Milwaukee. They outhit the Brewers and benefited from two errors, but the long ball (FIVE Brew Crew HR's!) doomed them. Fortunately, tonight's starter Jameson Taillon has allowed a home run in only three of his past 11 starts and just four total during that time. Taillon beat Wainwright back on 6.23 after allowing just two runs on four hits. He wasn't as sharp against the Cards last month here at home, but his offense also failed to score for him that day. It's been B2B quality starts from Taillon, who has allowed just 4 ER in 12 1/3 IP and his KW ratio (15-3) is far superior to that of Wainwright. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Rays entered the All-Star Break sitting in pole position for that second Wild Card in the American League. By no means was that race over though and sure enough, it is now wide open as not only have they struggled in the 2nd half, but a bevy of teams have also stepped up. Right now, they are two games below .500, which fortunately only has them 2.5 games back (of the Angels). They've lost two of three so far here in Toronto, but thankfully will have Chris Archer on the bump for this afternoon's finale. The Jays may now be just a game back of TB, but their playoff chances remain slim in my opinion as they'd have to jump SIX teams! Also, their YTD run differential is -78, third worst in the A.L., indicating that they're fortunate to even be sniffing .500. I like Archer and the Rays to leave the Great White North w/ a series split. 

Coming into the year, I felt Archer was poised for a big bounce back from a disappointing 2016. He finished dead last in net units (-15.6), but I rightly felt that was not indicative of the pitcher's overall skill set. Sure enough, Archer enjoyed plenty of success early on in '17, though his team start record his L6 starts is just 2-4. That said, he's still managed to allow 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts and last time out marked the 1st time in the L15 starts he didn't make it a full six innings. He's got a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. Toronto and his last time pitching here at Rogers Centre (4.30) saw him allow just one run and four hits, in 7 1/3 IP. In three starts vs. the Jays this year, he's allowed just six runs in 21 IP, but has yet to factor into any decision. 

Admittedly, Archer may have to be at his best today b/c the Rays simply are not hitting much. They've scored two runs or less in 8 of the past 12 games, going just 3-9. They've been shutout five times during this stretch. Last night's 3-2 loss saw them strand nine runners on base though as they went 0 for 6 w/ RISP. This slump can't go on forever though and I see the potential for them breaking out here against Chris Rowley, who will be making just his 2nd career start. The West Point (Army) grad got to face a National League lineup (Pirates) in his first start and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. Dealing w/ an AL lineup here, I expect things to be a bit more challenging. To me, a real key in handicapping this matchup is that despite Toronto's winning record at home (32-29), they have actually been outscored somewhat significantly here. In fact, only three teams have been outscored by a larger rpg average at home than have the Jays. 8* Tampa Bay

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Reds upset the Cubs last night, 2-1 (as +145 ML underdogs), in a game where all the scoring took place in the eighth inning or later. I don't see that happening two days in a row. As you may have guessed, the Cubs have generally had the Reds' number in recent years, winning 35 of the past 49 meetings. They may be only 7-4 against their NL Central rival this year, yet it's still a sizable 13 game edge in the standings. Cincinnati is the lone team out of contention in the division and is one of just five teams in baseball to have been outscored by over 100 runs over the course of the season. The money line is higher tonight, significant because the Reds are 1-9 as a road underdog of +175 or higher.

As you probably know, the Cubs' season has largely been considered a disappointment. They're bottom three in net units (-19.3), but remember that any/all disappointnnent and the poor performance at the betting window is a direct result of being measured against LY's incredible level of play. Here in the 2nd half of the season, our reigning World Series Champs have generally "turned it around" as they closed July on a 13-3 run. Success w/ John Lackey on the hill goes back even further. The team has won each of Lackey's L6 starts. He'll be on the mound tonight. In all of those last 6 starts, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer. Let's not forget that the Cubs won Monday's series opener, 15-5, either.

The Reds will counter Lackey w/ veteran Homer Bailey. How is this guy still drawing a paycheck? He has an 8.31 ERA and 2.035 WHIP in his 10 starts this year. Somehow, the team has managed to win four of those, including two of the last three despite comparable numbers to the season. He was bailed out by his offense in an 11-10 win over Milwaukee his last time out and the start before that saw him get hammered for 10 runs in just 3 1/3 IP. It was his third time in the last six starts giving up at least seven runs. Let's also be sure to note the fact that the Reds' run differential is -1.3 per game on the road. That's tied for 2nd worst in all of baseball and they are tied for the MOST runs per game allowed. Yes, this is every bit the mismatch you think it is. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): This will be the Tribe's third city in three days (Tampa Bay, Boston), but don't think that will bother them as they've been rolling w/ four straight wins, including 7-3 in Fenway Park (make-up game) Monday night. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row in Tampa, including two shutouts. The pitching staff is now at full strength w/ Danny Salazar back in the fold and that is who will pitch Tuesday in Minnesota. This is a revenge spot for the Indians, who were swept last month (at home) by the Twins. But, curiously, Cleveland has been better on the road this year as their record is 33-25 and they've outscored foes by 0.6 rpg. The Twins, meanwhile, have been a horrid home team as they've been outscored by a full run per game, going 27-33.

Cleveland is actually a perfect 7-0 here at Target Field this season! These teams have played 12 times in 2017 and the road team has won 11 of them. Maybe that's not too surprising considering both teams have better records on the road than at home. The Twins have the worst home run differential in the American League as they're giving up an average of 5.7 runs per game. That's easily the most in all of baseball. Strange as it may be to hear, there actually appears to be a "road team advantage" in this AL Central rivalry.

Salazar has a 1.96 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost the last two times he's taken the mound, but don't blame the pitcher for that. He's allowed just two runs and has 20 K's in 12 1/3 IP. Since returning to the rotation, he's allowed only FOUR runs in 25 1/3 IP and has 36 IP. Those are really good numbers, obviously. Earlier this year, Salazar beat Minnesota (here at Targe Field, of course) by allowing just one run in six innings. Pitching opposite him today will be veteran Bartolo Colon. The portly southpaw broke in w/ Cleveland two decades ago and while he's enjoyed a successful career, he's no longer the pitcher he once was. Yes, he did throw seven shutout innings his last time out and a complete game before that, but he has a 6.77 ERA and 1.622 WHIP for the year (18 starts) and given all that I've told you so far, it should not come as a surprise to see the numbers get WORSE at home. 8* Cleveland

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Last month (7/17-7/20), the Pirates swept a four-game series from the Brewers. That seemed to signal a renaissance for the Bucs, who at the time had climbed back to .500. But their mediocre string of baseball has instead continued as they're now back two games below (.500) and in fourth place of the wide open NL Central. Compared to the three teams above them, their run differential is clearly inferior as it's "in the red" (negative) whereas the other three teams have all outscored the opposition this season. One of them is obviously Milwaukee, who spent much of the year in first place. But getting swept by the Bucs signaled a clear downturn here as they're 9-18 their L27 games. But I like the revenge angle here in this short two-game set and following B2B wins, feel the Brew Crew may be back on track.

Milwaukee had lost six in a row prior to beating Cincinnati both Saturday and Sunday. The offense definitely woke up against the Reds, scoring 23 times in the three games. That's a good sign going up against the Pirates' Ivan Nova, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Nova was hit hard, giving up six runs and 10 hits. While it would be easy to blame that performance on being in an AL park, Nova had also allowed 4+ ER his previous three starts and two of those were against San Diego, the worst offensive team in the sport. When he faced Milwaukee last month, part of that four-game sweep, obviously Nova won. But he also was lucky to give up only three runs as he allowed 10 hits over the six innings. 

Pitching here for Milwaukee will be Zach Davies. He too was terrible his last time out, giving up seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. But the difference between he and Nova was that Davies has been pitching well previously. In fact, "well" would be putting it mildly. It was four consecutive quality starts, going seven innings or more every time and he allowed just four runs TOTAL. He had gone 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his eight starts prior to the last one. Davies did pitch in the last series between these teams and pitched well, giving up just one run (unearned) in 7 IP. I'm a big believer in the revenge angle here and Milwaukee has simply been better at home this year. They also have the better starter. Add it up and it's a win! 8* Milwaukee

8* San Francisco (7:10 ET): In what's been a disastrous season for the team, Madison Bumgarner has had either "no" or "bad" luck. Despite a 2.71 ERA and 1.025 WHIP, he has a 2-8 TSR. One of those wins did come last time out however as he allowed only five hits in 7 IP and one run - on a solo HR. Over his L3 starts, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP, having given up three runs and just 15 hits in 21 IP. While he missed three full months this season due to a dirtbike accident, Bumgarner has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 10 starts. I feel he should extend that streak here against a Marlins team that is prime fade material right now off four straight wins. The Giants also have revenge, not just for last night, but for a three-game sweep that occurred right before the All-Star Break. 

Giancarlo Stanton homered again last night (43rd, team record) in Miami's 8-3 win. It was a 3-3 game after three innings, but from there the Giants didn't score again while the Marlins added five more. Incredibly, Stanton has now hit 22 times in the last 34 games. But like his team's recent bout of success, I do not believe that to be sustainable. Prior to last night's win, Miami was just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. The Fish have been outscored at home this year and their longest win streak of the year is four games - so winning again would be "foreign territory."

Dan Straily will start today for Miami. Like Bumgarner, he's pitched better than the team start record suggests, just not as well as Bumgarner. The Marlins have lost each of the past six times Straily has started and he's failed to make it past the sixth inning in any of the starts. Personally, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 5.17 ERA during the span. The only issue Bumgarner has faced is a lack of run support w/ the Giants scoring one run or less in half of his starts. I project they'll fare far better against Straily tonight and thus beat the Marlins for the 1st time in '17. 8* San Francisco

10* Baltimore (10:10 ET): In the American League, there are four clear top teams - Houston, Cleveland, Boston and the Yankees. All have run differentials of +90 or higher. But - as you know - FIVE teams make the playoffs per league and it is that 5th spot that's WIDE open right now in the AL. Really, only three teams - Oakland, the White Sox and Detroit - should consider themselves out of that race. Everybody else (7 teams!) is separated by just four games entering play on Monday. Two of those teams face off here as both Baltimore and Seattle look to bounce back from disappointing weekends. The Orioles are 3-4 on their current West Coast swing (lost in Oakland yday) and their 58-60 record is somewhat misleading in that they've been outscored this year by 49 runs. But there's no sugarcoating just how disastrous the weekend was here in Seattle as the Mariners were swept by the division rival Angels (4 games) and lost James Paxton to injury in the process. I like the pitching matchup from the O's perspective today and think they'll take the series opener.

Sure, Seattle outhit the Angels each of the past two games, but they managed runs only in the 1st and 9th innings yday and the bullpen was just awful throughout the series. You should figure to see the bullpen pretty early tonight given Yovani Gallardo is starting. Gallardo has gone five innings or fewer in four of his last five starts and the one exception saw him go just 5 2/3. Looking back through his season, there's been just ONE time all season where the M's won a game w/ Gallardo on the mound where they scored fewer than six runs. Given recent offensive production, we are highly unlikely to see them score six runs tonight. Meanwhile, the Baltimore offense is near the top of the league in scoring since the All-Star Break. That's bad news for Gallardo, who already has a 6.61 ERA and 1.573 WHIP when pitching here at Safeco Field. 

Kevin Gausman goes for the Orioles here and he's been in good form lately. Well, his last start saw him give up four runs, but he'd only allowed two in the four starts prior. Other than his 3 HR's allowed in those L5 starts, Gausman has allowed just two runs in 27 IP. He has a 3.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle has played very poorly at home at times this season and right now is definitely one of those times. With a struggling starter, a struggling bullpen and an offense that managed just 13 runs in the L4 games, the M's just don't have a lot to "lean on" here. 10* Baltimore

8* Run Line San Francisco (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco split a doubleheader yday, losing the nightcap, which went 11 innings. Thus, you may think that having to go down to Miami on Monday is a bad spot, but the run line could end up being the great equalizer here. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent spot to fade the Marlins, who are off a surprising sweep of the Rockies over the weekend. The Giants have revenge here for a three-game sweep that took place (at home) right before the All-Star Break. The Marlins aren't really a team to be feared and they're just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. They've been outscored at home.

Yes, the Nationals were w/o Bryce Harper, but I thought the Giants' pitching staff turned in somewhat of a yeoman's effort Sunday. They held MLB's top offense to only four runs in 19 innings before losing on a walk-off grand slam. In the first game, Washington didn't even get a runner into scoring position until the seventh inning. Certainly, skipper Bruce Bochy is hoping for a repeat of that w/ today's starter, Ty Blach, who has been one of the few positive surprises in this lost season by the Bay. Blach has made three consecutive quality starts (2.45 ERA), allowing only six runs in 22 IP. The team has won each of his L2 starts, one as a +175 dog against the Cubs. Going back further, Blach has a 5-2 TSR his L7 starts (2.98 ERA), six of those being quality. One of the two losses was certainly excusable as he was a +255 ML dog against the Dodgers. That game was decided by only one run as well, one of the Giants' 35 games decided by one run this season (5th most in MLB).

Miami counters w/ Adam Conley, who is off B2B bad outings. Last time out, he gave up five runs and 11 hits - in just 5 IP - which was his worst performance since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. Conley has not pitched particularly well at home as he has an 8.28 ERA and 1.599 WHIP here in five starts. The Marlins' sweep of Colorado over the weekend was a bit surprising, but consider the Rockies are just 35-64 all-time here on South Beach. Giancarlo Stanton continues to be ridiculous, but has to slow down at some point, right? The visitors do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, this has not been a positive series for the Mariners. Not only have they dropped all three games so far (even after drawing heavy action yday), but they lost their best pitcher (James Paxton) to the DL as well. The end result is that they are now a game behind the Angels for the American League's second Wild Card chase, a race that figures to go down to the wire as only a handful of teams can really be considered "out of it." The embarrassment of suffering a four-game sweep at home now looms, but I'll call for the M's to avoid it, even though they're facing the red-hot Parker Bridwell. I'm higher on the Halos long-term, but today should be Seattle's day as I still have the teams rated fairly evenly. 

The Angels came into this series just 24-32 on the road. But they've scored six runs in every game w/ 13 of the 18 runs total coming at the expense of the Mariners' bullpen. Last night's game was particularly cruel from the Seattle perspective as they actually outhit the Angels, 13-8, and had a 3-1 lead entering the seventh. BUt that was when the bullpen began to meltdown, allowing five runs over the next two innings. The previous night saw the M's blow a 5-1 lead, again allowing LA to score five times after the 7th. Thursday's game (6-3 final) was won w/ a three-run top of the ninth. So, needless to say, all three of these games could have gone either way; it just so happens none of them went to the home team. I think this one will, however, if for no other season than Seattle is simply "due" some better fortune. Some sharp line movement here seems to confirm my intuition.

Parker Bridwell has been a revelation for the Angels rotation as he comes in w/ a 10-1 TSR and has won four consecutive starts. However, that one time the Angels lost w/ him on the mound happened to come against Seattle back on June 30th as he allowed five runs on 11 hits (6 IP), both season-worsts. On the other hand, Seattle's Ariel Miranda comes in struggling as he's winless over his L6 starts and has a 7.02 ERA in the last three. But ... he's pitched well in the past against the Angels, going 4-0 w/ a 2.61 ERA. Two of those wins have come this season w/ the last one seeing him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. The Mariners have outscored the Angels 21-3 in those two Miranda starts this year. It may not be that lopsided this go-around, but considering the M's are 9-5 this year when on a losing streak of 3+ games, it will be a win nonetheless. 8* Seattle

10* Houston (3:05 ET): What in the world is going on w/ the Astros right now? The best team in the American League all season long has all of sudden dropped five straight, all on the road. Getting swept in Chicago (by the White Sox!) was downright shocking and now they've lost two straight here in Arlington where the Rangers are desperately trying to remain relevant in the Wild Card chase. Here is where the Astros' losing streak comes to an end, however. First off, let us not forget how truly special this team has been in '17, particularly away from home. They are 38-20 and have outscored opponents by nearly TWO full runs per game. Their 6.6 rpg scoring average is more than a full run higher than the next best team. Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound this afternoon and I can't see him being beaten a second time this week. 

Texas is fascinating case study in regression this year. Coming into the season, I fully expected them to not win as many games as they did in 2016. Winning 95 games a season ago was highly misleading when you consider they outscored opponents by only eight runs. They were paced by a historically great (and lucky) 36-11 record in one-run games. This season currently finds them at 56-59, even though their run differential (+11) is actually better than it was last season! The difference? They've gone 10-18 in one-run games. They've been impressive in this series so far, scoring 14 runs in two games, but I can't see them sweeping the Astros, not w/ Keuchel on the mound. The Rangers' own starter, Andrew Cashner, was scratched from his last start due to a stiff neck. While he's pitched well over the last two months, Cashner has not fared well this season against the Astros, losing all three times he's faced them w/ a 6.19 ERA.

Keuchel had a won-loss record of 9-0 back on June 2nd, which was the day he threw six scoreless innings against Texas. It was also the day he landed on the DL for a second time in '17. Since returning, he has not looked like the same pitcher, particularly his last time out where he allowed EIGHT runs to the White Sox in an embarrassing loss as a -250 ML favorite. I expect him to bounce back today, however. The team had won 11 of his 12 starts overall heading into August. The Astros are also 20-10 in day games this year. I can't see this Astros' losing streak, their longest of the season, continuing. 10* Houston

6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): This sets up as a BRUTAL spot for Tampa Bay, coming off B2B shutouts and now having to face Corey Kluber. The Indians' ace should continue the trend of shutting the Rays' offense down here as he comes in w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP, both of which rank second in the American League. He's 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (183) and has fanned 11+ batters in five consecutive starts. The former Cy Young winner couldn't be in any better form coming into Sunday either as he's off B2B complete games where he allowed just one run on three hits each time. Overall, the Tribe has won the last four times he's taken the mound. Oh by the way, Tampa Bay has scored just eight runs total its last eight games and has been shutout FIVE times during that stretch.

So, yes, I'd say this is a horrible matchup for the scuffling Rays, who are now .500 for the 1st time since June 16th. They did take Thursday's opener, 4-1, but since then they've failed to put a single run on the board. Carlos Carrasco took a no-hitter into the seventh on Friday night and last night saw Mike Clevinger outduel Chris Archer. Not only have the Rays not scored the L2 days, they have just seven hits! All five shutouts in the L8 games have been at home. In fact, 9 of their MLB-leading shutouts have taken place here at Tropicana Field. They're batting just .175 on the current homestand and have struck out 87 times. Those numbers make a matchup w/ Kluber appear to be downright frightening. Cleveland is #1 in runs allowed in the AL, by the way. 

The Rays will send Austin Pruitt to the hill Sunday afternoon. In his L2 starts, he's had to face Dallas Keuchel and Chris Sale and while he "lived to tell the story," even pitching quite well, I don't believe he'll be up to the task today. He was on the wrong end of one of those Rays' shutouts on Tuesday w/ Sale and the Red Sox beating him 2-0. With Kluber having allowed 1 or 0 ER in 8 of his last 10 starts, the margin for error here is very thin for Pruitt and I think it's right to question what he and the team will have left in the tank here. It's tough enough having to face Keuchel and Sale in B2B starts, now comes Kluber. Pruitt knows that run support here is likely to be minimal at best, so I see the Rays getting crushed here. The Indians lineup is already benefiting from the addition of Jay Bruce, who had 2 RBI's yday. 6* Cleveland

8* Kansas City (7:10 ET): After cashing the White Sox last night (as an underdog!), I'm switching courses here tonight and calling for the Royals to end their losing streak. Certainly, you don't expect to catch a team like the White Sox riding in on a four-game win streak very often. But they did sweep Houston (shocker!) to start the week before winning 6-3 last night. Meanwhile, KC has lost five in a row as they had the misfortune of running into the red-hot Cardinals in a home & home to start their week. I'm on record as calling the Royals "the very definition of average," but that works both ways as they're not as bad as they've been playing recently. Remember that they went on a 10-1 run near the end of July that included a three-game sweep of these White Sox.

A big reason why I'm taking the Royals tonight is that I feel the starting pitching edge is strongly in their favor. They'll send Ian Kennedy out to the bump Saturday night and while he's struggled his past two starts (allowed 10 ER in 10 IP!), look for him to bounce back as before that the team had won seven of his eight starts w/ him allowing 3 ER or less in every victory. It's interesting that Kennedy has pitched better on the road this year as he's still winless at Kauffman Stadium! Among the four regulars in the Royals starting rotation, Kennedy actually has the best WHIP. Note that last night was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh. So, although I'm not afraid to "crow" over the victory, things easily could have gone the other way were it not for one big (four-run) inning from the White Sox. 

Chicago got a great start from the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez (one of the big reasons I was on them) last night. But tonight they'll have to rely on old James Shields, who has not been good of late w/ a 8.13 ERA his last six starts. He's also winless over that stretch. He now has an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.500 for the year. The long-ball has really hurt him of late as he's given up a total of 5 HR's in his L2 starts. Let's keep some perspective here, shall we? The White Sox are 23 games below .500 and had dropped 19 of 22 before the current win streak, which happens to be their longest since late April. With a team this bad, the good times won't last long. 8* Kansas City

10* Detroit (6:10 ET): Minnesota has all of a sudden won six straight games, including the series opener in Detroit last night, 9-4. Make no mistake about it, last night was a pretty complete effort, but the key was a big catch by CF Byron Buxton in the seventh when the Tigers had two men on. However, winning streak aside, I remain highly skeptical of these Twins. Yes, they've climbed back above .500 (58-56) and are now in pole position for the second Wild Card in the American League. But they've still been outscored by 51 runs this year and even though they've been one of the most profitable teams to bet on the road, their runs scored vs. allowed is basically even outside of Target Field. Jose Berrios pitches for them tonight and as a result, the line has moved in the Twins' direction. But I believe this sets up as a great value play on Detroit as I just don't have much faith in Minnesota continuing to win. 

The Tigers have been trending in the opposite direction of the Twins, losing six of their last seven games. Despite this, they actually still have the better YTD run differential of the two teams (-35). Also, recall that Detroit did get off to a strong start here in August by beating the Astros twice and then taking two of three at Yankee Stadium. It was a NL park (Pittsburgh) where the trouble began (lose DH) and that carried over into last night. Jordan Zimmerman toes the rubber on Saturday and despite having a high ERA/WHIP for the year, he's coming off three consecutive quality outings. Last time out, his offense forgot to score (in Pittsburgh). This will be only Zimmerman's second start at home since the Break, the first coming against Dallas Keuchel and Houston. He can expect more run support tonight as the Tigers offense averages a healthy 5.4 rpg at Comerica Park. Only five teams in all of MLB average more runs per game at home. 

The Twins typically win ugly, but lose even uglier. The current stretch is one of their best of the season; in fact, it's their longest win streak to date. Previously, they had not won more than four in a row at any point. Berrios has been their most profitable starter, but he was fortunate his last time out as the offense bailed him out in a 6-5 win over Texas. He allowed 2 HR's and five runs overall in five innings of work. He's also started to show signs of regression w/ only two of his last seven starts being quality. Berrios has pitched much better at home than on the road this year and if I'm a Twins fan, I'd be worried here about the fact the bullpen was taxed last night (4+ IP). Unless Berrios can deliver a masterpiece (don't see that happening), then I see the Twins losing for the first time in a week. 10* Detroit

8* Atlanta (8:15 ET): St. Louis certainly figures to be a popular side today. As I mentioned in the White Sox writeup, they just pulled off a dominant four-game sweep of the Royals (home & home) and have now won six in a row overall. They have pulled within a game of the first place Cubs in the NL Central and have the superior run YTD run differential. Don't count me among the "surprised," however, as I said week ago that the Cards just might be the best team in their division. Hosting Atlanta this weekend, everyone is likely to call for the "good times" to continue, but the ML for tonight's series opener has done some curious things, namely drop precipitously despite the vast majority of bets coming in on the favorite. (The same holds true in the Royals-White Sox game). The Braves do have an edge here in that they had Thursday off. Also, who knows what to expect from St. Louis in this "post-Rally Kitten" world? I'm on the dog here.

The Braves' recent homestand ended in disappointing fashion as they lost the final three games, including both w/ the Phillies. But this team has curiously played better on the road all season anyway, so I'm not really concerned w/ them leaving their home park. They are basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed for the balance of the season (away from home). Something else they have going for them here is Mike Foltynewicz will be on the hill. Foltynewicz has a 10-1 team start record since June 2nd, including a very dominant performance his last time out (Saturday) when he struck out a season-high 11 batters in a 7-2 win over Miami (allowed only 1 ER & 4 hits in 6 1/3 IP). This is also a revenge spot for Foltynewicz and the Braves as they were swept in their lone series w/ the Cardinals this year (back in May). That included Foltynewicz's worst start of the season, so he'll be highly motivated here. 

The Cards counter w/ Adam Wainwright and while he has the same team start record as Foltynewicz (13-8), his ERA and WHIP are both worse. Last time out, starting for the first time in two weeks, Wainwright lasted only three innings as it took him 45 pitches to get out of the first inning. That was against Cincinnati too. Wainwright was fortunate in that his offense "showed up" that day, scoring 13 times. Another note is that Wainwright last started Sunday, a day after Foltynewicz, so not only are the Braves more rested than the Cardinals, so is their starter. St. Louis is only a .500 proposition (29-29) off a win this season. They were actually outhit by the Royals last night, but were fortunate to get a grand slam from Dexter Fowler. This is what I call an "ambush" spot. 8* Atlanta

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox might be a last place team, but they certainly have some confidence right now after sweeping the Astros here at home. Most impressive is that they were priced at +225, +190 and +140 in the individual games, which included them beating Dallas Keuchel! Now you may be itching to call for some regression here, considering the Pale Hose had dropped six in a row prior to that last series. But I fully anticipate them competing here w/ division rival Kansas City, who has lost four in a row themselves as well as 9 of their last 11 games. A team that is the very definition of "average," the Royals are unaccustomed to being priced at this level on the road. In fact, this will be just the 2nd time all year they find themselves as a ML road fave of -125 or higher. They lost the first one. Even more encouraging is that the White Sox actually have a winning record (10-9) in the same price range as a home dog. 

The Royals were just beaten badly, losing all four games to the Cardinals while giving up 37 runs in the process. That's certainly not a good sign. They have split 10 games w/ the White Sox this year, but were swept in their lone visit to Guranteed Rate Field (back in April). They did manage to return the favor (three-game sweep) late last month, but two of the wins were of the one-run variety, so the series easily could have gone either way. It's no secret that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games), so I'm "all in" on the home team tonight.

The home team will be starting the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez here. While it's Lopez's first start of 2017, he has previous experience in this role. He went 5-3 in 11 starts for the Nationals last year and came over in the Adam Eaton trade. A high strikeout pitcher (always a good sign!), Lopez had 131 K's in 22 starts for Triple A Charlotte this season. This after fanning 42 hitters in 44 IP last season. He'll oppose Danny Duffy here. Duffy has pitched well at times this year, but not vs. Chicago, whom he's 0-2 against w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs and 19 hits in just 12 1/3 IP. Something else to consider is that the Royals' bullpen is struggling - big time - right now. Plus, they've been overworked. Only one of the team's four starters made it a full six innings in the series w/ St. Louis and relievers wound up giving up 19 runs in 16 IP. This is a really good value on the home team as divisional matchup are always a "crapshoot." 8* Chi White Sox

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies were a big winner for me back on Sunday (as a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release over Colorado) and came into this series on a three-game win streak after sweeping a brief two-game series w/ division rival Atlanta (now 11-2 head to head vs. the Braves this season!). But in their return home Thursday, they got humiliated by the Mets, losing 10-0. That Mets' performance was certainly "out of nowhere" as they came in having lost 8 of 10 while batting a collective .187 over the previous week. While it's true that Philly does have the worst record in all of MLB, note their run differential is better than a handful of teams and that latter metric, I find, to be a far better predictor of future success. (Their 28 one-run losses are by far MLB's most). Home teams that get humiliated in the fashion the Phillies were Thursday night, more often than not, come back highly motivated the next day. I'm counting on that here.

The Mets had three different three-run innings last night while Phillies' hitters were stymied by Jacob deGrom. I expect the offense to peform better tonight against Seth Lugo, a pitcher who has given up multiple HR's in three consecutive starts. Lugo has managed a positive team start record on the road (4-2) despite having a 5.45 ERA and 1.529 WHIP. That seems pretty lucky to me and the runs allowed side of the ledger has hurt the Mets all season long. In fact, they're giving up an average of 5.5 rpg on the road this year, thereby negating their own scoring average of 5.2 rpg. Only two teams - the Padres and Giants - have allowed more runs per game on the road this season. The bullpen has played its own role in that w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.600 WHIP away from home. Lugo has never started here at Citizens Bank Park before. Remember that like the Phillies, the Mets are already thinking about next season. They're currently 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 57 runs over the course of the season. 

If you're searching for a reason to care about Phillies' baseball the rest of the way, then look to callup Rhys Hoskins, who made his big-league debut yday. While he went 0 for 2 at the plate, the 1B/OF produced a .966 OPS at Triple A Lehigh Valley w/ 29 HR's. For more immediate purposes, there's plenty to like here about starter Nick Pivetta, despite what the overall numbers may look like. Pivetta has a 0.973 WHIP here at home and his last time starting here, he allowed just one run on three hits in 6 IP. Furthermore, he has already beaten the Mets this year, having allowed just one HIT (a solo HR) over 7 IP back on 7.2! That was his best performance to date and if he comes anywhere close to duplicating that tonight, then the Phils should have no problem bouncing back from last night's "disaster." 10* Philadelphia

8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): I felt Arizona was a great value on the run line Tuesday night and took them in what ended up being an "outright" 6-3 victory. I also felt that the D'backs were a great value plus the 1.5 last night as they had Zack Greinke on the bump. Turns out the run line came in handy there as they lost to the Dodgers 3-2. Tonight, however, I'm "switching course." It is Los Angeles, a team that appears to be on an absolute mission, that provides the value as they will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound. Oddsmakers have not hiked the asking price on LA up nearly enough here (compared to the last two days) as - clearly - the pitching edge lies in Dodger Blue's favor moreso than the first two games.

The Dodgers adding a pitcher the caliber of Darvish illustrates what an "embarrassment of riches" we are dealing with here. The team - now an astounding 80-33 on the season - is on pace to match the all-time record for wins in a single regular season (114), set by the '01 Mariners. They have outscored the opposition by an amazing 202 runs, which puts them on a pace to finish at +289, which would be the franchise's best run differential since the 1889 team in Brooklyn! Oh by the way, Darvish's debut last week could hardly have been better as he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's. He figures to benefit immensely from the move to the Senior Circuit where he'll consistently be facing weaker lineups. Maybe Arizona doesn't seem to fall into that class (average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field), but five of their last seven games have seen them score four runs or fewer.

Countering Darvish will be Anthony Banda and I hardly feel like he'll be up to the challenge. Banda will be making his third start and while his last (last Friday) saw him stand up to Madison Bumgarner and win (as a +135 ML underdog), Darvish and the Dodgers is a far greater task. Banda was able to overcome four walks in that last start, but you can bet the Dodgers would make him pay for a similar transgression. Banda's first start saw him give up four runs. He's only in the rotation due to an injury to Robbie Ray. Among their many other exploits, the Dodgers are 27-10 this year when facing a left-handed starter. 8* LA Dodgers

Play still stands even w/ pitching change!

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): There's been a pitching change for the Twins here as they'll now send Dietrich Enns to the mound. It will be Enns big-league debut. Originally, it was to be Kyle Gibson in this spot, but he'll instead pitch tomorrow's series opener vs. the Tigers. While Gibson's 6.03 ERA and 1.70 WHIP would have certainly made for some nice fade material here, the bottom line is that I'm jumping on the Brew Crew here b/c they are looking to avoid what would be an embarrassing four-game, home and home sweep at the hands of their former AL rival. Truth be told, I don't have much regard for a Twins team that should consider itself very fortunate to be at .500 considering they've been outscored by a whopping 61 runs this season.

Let's talk a bit about the Brewers' pitcher, shall we? It is Zach Davies and he comes into tonight in fine form. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his L8 starts, the last four of which have seen him go at least seven innings. In three of those four, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run! Last time out, Davies allowed just one hit in seven shutout innings at Tampa Bay and won as a +140 ML dog. What's most impressive about that performance is it came in an AL park, meaning Davies had to face a lineup w/ a DH, something he is unaccustomed to. Here, it's a Twins team that will have to send Enns up to bat. This will - easily - be the weakest lineup Davies has faced in some time as his last three starts came against the Rays (AL lineup), Cubs and Nationals (#1 in runs scored).

Now Milwaukee's own lineup has certainly been scuffling throughout this series. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that they were shut out. They have not topped four runs in any of their last 13 games! But in addition to having their most profitable starter on the hill tonight, this team is 11-3 this season when priced in the -125 to -175 range at home. Enns is a bit of an unknown commodity as he was just acquired from the Yankees in the Jaime Garcia deal. He made just one appearance for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate. I feel like targeting him is the sound move here as Milwaukee is desperate right now, not just because they're in third place in the NL Central for the first time since May 13, but also due to trying to avoid this sweep. A home favorite looking to avoid a fourth straight loss to the same opponent is usually a sound investment. 8* Milwaukee

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians got a "taste of their own medicine" on Wednesday afternoon. After rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth Tuesday against the Rockies, it was they that gave up the game-tying run in the top of the ninth yday and would go onto lose, 3-2, in 12 innings. Despite splitting that interleague series, make no mistake about it; the Tribe remains one of the better teams in the American League as is evident by their first place standing in the AL Central and moreso their +98 run differential. This weekend finds them travelling to Tampa Bay to face a Rays team desperately fighting for that final Wild Card spot. There's a clear gap between the top four in the A.L. (Astros, Indians, Red Sox & Yankees) and I look for the superior team to exploit that here w/ Danny Salazar on the bump.

Case in point, the Rays have gone 4-6 against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox these last few weeks w/ three of the wins coming at Houston's expense. They just dropped two here at home to Boston (Tuesday/Wednesday), scoring only two runs in the process. Offensively, there are major problems developing here and they go beyond the Red Sox series. Three times in the last five games, the Rays have been shutout! They've scored just four runs total in those five games, all of them here at home, and yesterday saw them manage only four hits. The team batting average over the last week is .190 and that doesn't figure to improve much going up against Salazar, who has a 1.35 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his three starts since coming off the DL. Last time out, Salazar struck out 12 Yankees in what ended up being a hard-luck 2-1 loss. 

The Rays will turn to the still-winless Blake Snell on Thursday. Clearly, having a "0" in the win column at this point of the season is not a good sign. Snell has made 14 starts overall (4-10 TSR) and has a 5.10 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs on seven hits, yet the team somehow still emerged victorious over Houston. But you'd have to go back to April to find the last time the Rays won B2B Snell starts. Snell, who has allowed a home run in four consecutive outings, has pitched six innings only twice this year and only four times has he lasted longer than five. He may have to deal w/ Jay Bruce tonight after the Indians went out and got him in a trade w/ the Mets last night. Cleveland has had trouble scoring of late, but is actually 11th in runs scored overall and 5th in OBP. 8* Cleveland

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies mastery of the Braves is downright non-sensical when you consider the fact the latter still holds a 9.5 game lead over the former in the NL East standings. Now that's not to say Atlanta is a good team, but they're at least a lot closer to mediocre than is Philadelphia, who still has the worst overall record in MLB. I will conccede the point that there are a number of team w/ worse run differentials (than Philly), but there's no sugarcoating the club's 18-41 road record that has seen them get outscored rather substantially. While the Phillies are now 10-2 against the Braves this year - following last night's 5-2 victory - they are just 31-67 against everyone else and I believe that's the record the matters. Atlanta will have its revenge tonight.

In restrospect, last night's play on Julio Teheran may have been misguided when you consider he's now 1-8 in 12 starts here at SunTrust Park. But the Braves still have revenge for a four-game sweep that occurred up in Philly late last month and individually so does Sean Newcomb against Jack Eickhoff. The former certainly pitched well enough to win at Citizens Bank Park back on 7.29, allowing just one run and two hits in five innings. But his bullpen let him down in what ended up being a 4-3 loss for Braves, in 11 innings. That's just a part of what has been a very hard-luck stretch for Newcomb as he's winless over his L6 starts despite allowing 3 ER or less in each of the last three. Three of the Phillies' wins in their four-game sweep of the Braves last month came by exactly one run. Oddly, not counting that series, the Phils are just 12-28 in one-run games. Again, it just doesn't add up. The Braves are due to beat this team. 

Eickhoff was charged w/ all three runs allowed to the Braves back on 7.29. Admittedly, he's pitched pretty well for a last place team, but I went against him in his last start and was rewarded w/ a 5-4 win by the Angels. Eickhoff allowed three runs in that start as well - on just three hits - but also issued four walks. As I said in my analysis of that matchup, Eickhoff had also allowed 3 HR's in his previous road start. On the road, he has an 0-9 team start record w/ a 5.09 ERA and 1.396 WHIP. Atlanta has at least shown a modest profit in night games this season while Philadelphia has set fire to their backers' bankrolls in such affairs, losing 23.6 units overall. 10* Atlanta

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Divisional matchups can always be a crapshoot, but still it's been surprising to see the 53-58 Marlins give the 66-45 Nationals so much trouble. The NL East rivals have played five times since July 31st w/ Miami winning three of those games, including 7-3 last night. For the year, the Fish now hold a 6-5 head to head advantage, though the vast majority of the games have been decided by one run (Washington won 3-2 Monday). I look for the Nats to bounce back tonight, however, as they have Gio Gonzalez on the mound and not only is he having a great season, but he's also 8-3 w/ a 1.99 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Miami. Contrast that to Marlins' starter Adam Conley, who has an 8.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington. The Nats are one of five teams in baseball w/ a run differential that exceeds +100.

For Gonzalez, this will be his first time pitching since 7.31 when he held the Marlins scoreless for eight innings. He was placed on the paternity list soon after, so he should be both emotionally charged and rested. Not only did Gonzalez shut the Marlins out in his last start, but he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. He's now 2-0 in three starts vs. Miami this year, having allowed only three runs in a total of 21 IP! At home this year, he has a 2.02 ERA and 1.155 WHIP, so he certainly is deserving of better than a 4-6 TSR here. Furthermore, a scuflling Marlins' offense may make things even easier for Gonzalez. In just one of their L10 games has Miami managed at least 10 hits. Last night, they scored seven times, but on only six hits, which is something you don't see very often. 

The Nats left nine runners on base last night and hit into two double plays. You have to think that an offense which ranks third or better in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging is due to "wake up" sooner rather than later. As mentioned above, they've certainly had Conley's number in the past and the Miami southpaw is coming off his weakest showing since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. He gave up four runs (three earned) in just 5 1/3 IP to Atlanta last Friday and the Braves' lineup is nowhere near as formidable as that of the Nationals. Perhaps most concerning w/ Conley however is how he's recording his outs. For three consecutive starts, he's recorded more outs via fly ball than ground ball and that's typically a sign that trouble could be on the way. 8* Washington

8* Run Line LA Angels (3:37 ET): These teams have split the first two games of this three-game set, but for today's rubber match the Orioles have curiously been installed as favorites for the first time in the series. That makes little sense to me given their season-long struggles on the road. They're just 20-34 outside of Camden Yards in 2017 while getting outscored by a pretty ugly margin (-1.1 rpg). Speaking of run differential, something I've harped on previously is the fact the O's are fortunate to even be "sniffing" .500 given they're now -50 in runs scored vs. allowed for the season. Were it not for a very fortunate 9-2 record in one-run games (unsustainable!), I have to think their record would be a whole lot worse. The Angels are one-half game behind Baltimore in the Wild Card chase, but are actually only -17 in run differential following last night's 3-2 win. Furthermore, the current price range is somewhat foreign to Baltimore as they are rarely ML favorites on the road. Therefore, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price- seems to be a great value on the home team.

I sense that it is the recent peformances of Orioles' starter Kevin Gausman that has him and his team favored Wednesday. But while Gausman may have a 0.42 ERA and 1.015 WHIP his L3 starts, that string of showings certainly is NOT in line w/ what we've seen from him most of this season. He has a 5.15 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in 24 starts overall and predictably those numbers worsen on the road. Consider Baltimore's pitching staff has the highest ERA in the American League and has also given up the second most runs (Oakland).

Pitching today for the Halos will be Troy Scribner. This will be just his second big league start and while he allowed five runs in the first (three unearned), the team did win (8-6 over Oakland). The Angels promptly lost their next three games after that, but I feel last night's win could be a turning point as I view this club as a far more serious playoff contender than I do the Orioles. I'll call for Mike Trout and the offense to have their biggest game of the series as well, which will obviously helpd Scribner, who should - at the very worst - keep his team in this one. Remember the difference in Monday's 6-2 win by Baltimore was a grand slam. I see the Angels doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): The first-place Indians finally seem to have gotten their act together at home as they're now a season-best five games over .500 at Progressive Field. Last night saw them very nearly waste another marvelous effort from the dominant Corey Kluber, but they instead dealt Colorado a soul-crushing 4-1 loss, scoring all four of those runs in the home half of the ninth. With such a short turnaround, this appears to be a terrible spot for the visiting Rockies. Normally, putting an NL team in an AL park leads to an increase in offense, but this franchise has struggled (throughout its existence) to score on the road (Coors Field effect?) and last night saw them manage just one run (scored in the top of the 1st) on three hits. I don't expect a lot more from them this afternoon.

Trevor Bauer pitches today for the Tribe and he's got a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts (2.25 ERA) and has been especially strong in the last two. Here at home, he held both the Angels and Yankees to just one run in a total of 15 IP w/ a 13-3 KW ratio. As I said earlier, the Rockies struggle to score on the road as they're down a full run and a half per game from what they average at Coors Field. They've topped five runs only once in the last seven games and that's w/ only yday's game taking place on the road. Though they're still in good position to bag the National League's second Wild Card, you have to wonder if Colorado is running on fumes a bit. Their YTD run differential (+47) is nowhere near the top three NL teams, nor is it close to Cleveland's (+99). 

Rockies starter Anthony Senzatela has been trending in the opposite direction of Bauer lately w/ a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP his last three starts. He's given up 17 runs in 14 IP and that's facing NL lineups that include the opposing pitcher hitting. While he did beat Cleveland back on 6.6, that was at Coors Field obviously. This one simply comes down to the home field edge and the fact that it will be very difficult for Colorado to get over allowing four runs in the ninth last night, especially w/ this short turnaround. 8* Cleveland

8* Run Line Arizona (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the D'backs +1.5. These two NL West rivals met seven times in April w/ Arizona winning four of those games. Since then, they've played just one series and that was at Chavez Ravine (in early July) where the Dodgers swept the three games, winning by exactly one run every time. While certainly not the main reason, that last series certainly played a role in the Dodgers now having opened up a monstrous lead in the NL West as they are 15.5 games up on the Rockies and 16 up on the D'backs. But now they must venture into Chase Field where the D'backs are a much stronger team (36-18 record w/ 5.8 rpg scored!) and the home team may actually have the edge in starting pitching for Tuesday's opener. Yes, the Dodgers have been just plain ridiculous (44-7 L51 games!), but the RL provides a nice "added insurance" here. Arizona will do no worse than a one-run loss.

Zack Godley will toe the rubber tonight for Arizona. He's just 5-4 in his 15 starts, but the team is 10-5. He owns a 2.86 ERA and 0.996 WHIP and is currently working on a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out the Cardinals and Cubs in B2B starts. So he comes into this start certainly displaying fine form. When he faced the Dodgers last month, he gave up only one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP, but sadly took a hard-luck 1-0 loss. Of course, that result would be fine here given how we're playing this one. It should be pointed out that Godley has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his 15 starts this season (0.895 WHIP at home!) and even in those two, he put forth an excellent 19-4 KW ratio. This is a very good pitcher in what is an underrated D'backs rotation.

Kenta Maeda goes here for the smoking-hot Dodgers. He threw seven shutout innings himself his last time out, but that came against the lowly Braves. When at home, the Dodgers are by far and away #1 in the league in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg!), but here at Chase Field, I expect the staff to struggle somewhat. Only Colorado (Coors Field!) averages more runs per game at home than Arizona does. Maeda has a 4.74 ERA and 1.282 WHIP on the road. I realize it's quite scary to step in front of this Dodgers' "runaway train" right now, but this price on Arizona w/ Godley pitching is quite remarkable and we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with. Consider Arizona has outscored its opponents at home this year by an average of 1.7 rpg. This team has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball at +114. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies have really handled the Braves in 2017, going 9-2 against their NL East rival this season. That includes a four-game sweep in the City of Brotherly Love a little less than two weeks ago. But on the surface, a sweep and for that matter the overall head to head domination make little sense. Atlanta is having the better season of these two teams as they are actually 10.5 games in front of the Phillies in the standings. But something else you must consider is that the Braves are 0-7 when playing in Philly this year. With the scene shifting to Sun Trust Ballpark this week, things should go in their favor. I say that because Philly is an atrocious 17-41 away from home this year, getting outscored by a full run per game. Take the Braves in this revenge spot Tuesday.

Julio Teheran is a starter who I earmarked for massive improvement coming into 2017. That really hasn't taken place, however. Last year, he experienced a 10-20 TSR (Team Start Record) despite posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, indicative of some bad luck. Well, this year's TSR is a more respectable 10-12, but he has an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.396. He has really struggled pitching in the Braves' new home ballpark w/ only ONE win in 11 tries. But I'm going to call for him to pitch much better tonight. He should be rested as he only pitched five innings in his last start (cramping) where he held the Dodgers to only three runs on four hits and the Braves pulled a massive upset. By the way, this Braves team has beaten the Dodgers three times since the All-Star Break. Those are the ONLY three times the Dodgers have lost since the Break!

Fortunately for Teheran, he'll be facing Zach Eflin tonight. Given the way Eflin had pitched before finding his way out of the rotation, it might as well be Zach Efron that the Phils send to the mound. There had been some discussion that they'd go w/ Ricardo Pinto on Tuesday, but instead it will be Efron, whose previous three starts (all the way back in May) resulted in a disastrous 13.20 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. He allowed 22 runs and 30 hits in 15 IP including SEVEN home runs in the final two starts! This play will stand even if Philly pulls a surprise and doesn't go w/ Eflin, but if they do, we're "money." The Phils are 1-5 on their current road trip w/ the one win (I had 'em!) coming Sunday, by one run, after a late rally. 10* Atlanta

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): I'll be coming right back w/ the Reds today, a rare B2B day recommendation on a poor team. If you read my analysis for Monday's opener, you probably understand why. The short answer is "the Padres are even worse." Cincy having a little bit of revenge here (got swept in SD earlier in the year) helps too. So does the fact that this series is being contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are a respectable 27-30 at home this season. But it's the Padres' awful road record that really matters as they are 20-35 away from Petco and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. That's heavily contributed to their MLB-worst run differential of -143. The Reds took the opener last night by a score of 11-3 and should have no problem rolling again here.

Sal Romano is now the fifth starter in the rag-tag Reds rotation and seems to be easing into the role. Over his L3 starts, he's posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.276 WHIP, pretty solid numbers I'd say. Things were trending in an even better direction prior to him allowing four runs in six innings his last time out. Then again, it didn't help there that the offense was shutout. The Reds homered four times yday (3rd day in a row from Joey Votto) and scored 11 times, their highest output in two months. Helping Romano here is the fact the Padres rank dead last in baseball when it comes to runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the L7 days, they are batting a collective .210. 

The Reds really hammered the Padres' bullpen last night, scoring six times in their final two innings. But in yday's analysis I also spoke of starter Jhoulys Chacin's season-long struggles on the road. Sure enough, the Reds got to him for five runs, the most Chacin had allowed in any of his L13 starts! Season-long strugges on the road also apply to tonight's San Diego starter, Luis Perdomo, who has a 1-7 team start record to go along w/ a 4.57 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. As was the case w/ Chacin, Perdomo has recently benefited from some favorable matchups. The last time he had to pitch on the road was in San Francisco and the Giants are also one of the weakest offensive teams in all of MLB. But even since, Perdomo has allowed nine runs in his last two starts (12 2/3 IP) and that was against the Mets and the DH-less Twins. Reds win again tonight. 8* Cincinnati

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a battle of two NL also-rans that figures to get little attention from the public. But there's definitely a situation we can exploit here and that's the fact that the last time they met (back in June), the Padres swept. Since that time, they've continued to win at a higher rate than have the Reds, but it is Cincy that still maintains the better run differential (-104 vs. -131), a metric that is far more reliable than won-loss record in judging a team's overall level of performance. This series taking place at Great American Ballpark is also a boon to the Reds as their record is a far more competitive 26-30 here compared to 19-36 on the road. As for the Padres, who I successfully played against both Friday & Sunday, they're 20-34 on the road and being outscored by 1.6 rpg.

The Reds have been really bad since the All-Star Break, winning just six times in 23 tries. They had won four of five, however, before dropping the last two games to St. Louis. Sunday did not go well as it was a 13-4 loss, but note they actually had a 3-0 lead after one inning only to fall prey to a huge nine-run inning by the Cards that included a grand slam. The Reds actually could have had an even bigger bottom of the 1st as they were up 3-0 w/ the bases loaded and nobody out. They need not worry about having to win a slugfest here, however. San Diego comes in ranked dead last in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the last week, the team batting average is a woeful .214.

This Reds' starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries this season w/ eight different pitchers finding their way onto the DL. A decision has been made to go w/ Tim Adelman in this spot. Adelman has not pitched since July 29th and had been moved to the bullpen after a poor July. But I look for him to "step up" tonight against the weakest lineup he'll face all season. The Reds are 6-4 this year when Adelman pitches at home. Now San Diego will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has been in fine form lately w/ 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts. But two of those starts came at home and then he also faced a terrible lineup in San Francisco. Really, his L5 matchups have all been somewhat favorable (favored L2 starts!). But the big key here is Chacin has not pitched well on the road this year (home ERA is lowest in MLB!) as he has a 7.53 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 10 starts. Given those numbers, a 5-5 TSR should be considered very fortunate. These were expected to be the two worst teams in the National League coming into 2017, but today marks the rare recommendation on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati

8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals -1.5. Obviously, there's always a risk in taking the money line favorite on the RL in that they could win by just a one-run margin. (Both of my wins Sunday were actually of the one-run variety). But, at least on paper, this matchup looks to be as lopsided as it gets as Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer goes for revenge against the team he faced in his last start. Of course, that start lasted all of one inning. Ironically, Scherzer had already "helped himself" at the plate in that game, by hitting his 1st career HR, but unfortunately he had to exit early due to a sore neck (reportedly due to "sleeping funny"). With an extra day of rest between starts, Scherzer should dominate here and I'll call for the Nats to win big.

I think Washington is in a great spot right now. They just took two of three from the Cubs (at Wrigley) despite not starting Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg or Gio Gonzalez. By most objective measures, this is the third best team in baseball (behind the Dodgers and Astros) and as hot as LA has been, I'm not ruling out a World Series run by the team from the Nation's Capital. Now they give the baseball to a rested Scherzer who is having himself another unbelievable year. That 14-8 TSR is quite misleading when you consider he ranks 1st in the NL in both strikeouts (201) and WHIP (0.841) as well as 2nd in ERA (2.21). Scherzer actually has a case of double revenge against the Marlins, who not only benefited from his early exit last time out, but were able to beat him (2-1) back on 6.21 despite Scherzer taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning! Scherzer has also recorded at least 9 K's in every start but one dating back to Memorial Day.

The pitcher Scherzer will face off against tonight is the same one he faced off with in the abbreviated outing back on 8.1. That would be Chris O'Grady, who was about as undeserving of a win as undeserving can be that day. O'Grady lasted only three innings and gave up six runs (2 HR's), but somehow Miami was able to claw its way back to a 7-6 victory. The Marlins are 4-1 in O'Grady's five starts so far, but his ERA (5.40) and WHIP (1.600) indicate that record is quite lucky. The Marlins' offense has also been pretty non-existent of late (.210 BA L7 games), so facing Scherzer, support for O'Grady is likely to be minimal, if not completely non-existent. The Nats should win this one "going away." 8* Run Line Washington (-1.5)

8* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. With another loss yday (7-4), the Mets are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Dodgers in 2017. That record isn't terribly surprising given where the two teams currently reside in the standings. The Dodgers have the best overall record in MLB (78-32) and have won an astounding 43 of their past 50 games. The Mets, meanwhile, have dropped 8 of 10 to fall 10 games below the "Mendoza Line" (.500). But sweeping the same team twice is becoming less and less commonplace in today's game (parity!) and tonight marks the Mets' FINAL chance in '17 to beat LA. I did play them yday as the pitching matchup was far too slanted in the Dodgers' favor. However, that's not the case tonight. I realize I said the same thing back on Friday, but who could have imagined Yu Darvish's National League debut going as well it di? I do not anticipate the same level of effectiveness tonight from Hyun-Jin Ryu. 

Consider that the Dodgers have NEVER swept a season series from the Mets in their history. The team's 43-7 pace is the best mark over a 50-game span since ... 1912! At some point, there will have to be some semblence of regression. The team has certainly benefited from a number of career years from various players and their record in one-run games is a fortuitous 19-10. Playing tonight's game the way we are (Mets +1.5) can at least counteract that good fortune. The Mets actually led 3-0 last night, scoring all three of those runs in the first inning, an advantage they held all the way until the sixth. But then they allowed LA to score seven straight times over the final four frames. All seven runs scored were the product of a home run. 

Ryu is coming off one of his better outings of the season as he held the Giants scoreless over seven innings. But that's a bottom two offense in all of baseball he was up against. His start previous to that one came at home against an AL team (Minnesota) that had to adjust to not having a DH. Ryu rarely goes deep into games anymore. In fact, that last start marked the first time he went at least six innings since June 5th. Eight of his last 10 outings have seen him last six innings or fewer. As for Mets' starter Steven Matz, yes, he's struggling but at least he's 2-0 all-time vs. LA (in the regular season) w/ a 2.51 ERA. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Philadelphia (3:10 ET): Surprise! We're doing an "about face" here and doing an 180 degree turn for this game. Yesterday, I was on the Rockies, who unsurprisingly downed the Phillies, 8-5 (jumped out to an early 5-0 lead and never looked back). Everything I said about the Phillies in my analysis still rings true, but the big key for Sunday is that they appear to have what is a decided edge in starting pitching w/ Aaron Nola toeing the rubber this afternoon. Furthermore, I'll point out that even in defeat, the Phils have outhit the Rockies in both games this weekend. Overnight, the money line did some "strange things," meaning it moved in favor of the road team despite the majority of bets being on the other side. I'll call for Philadelphia to end its five-game losing streak here. 

I've now played against the Phils four times in the last five days, winning every time obviously. They were swept by the Angels, who I took in every game, in a three-game series to start the week. The one game that I laid off was Friday's 4-3 loss here at Coors Field. Last night saw them dig a hole that was too deep to climb out of. Despite all that, I'm prepared - at least for a day - to offer up a rare endorsement. Nola (more on him in a bit) is the primary reason, but it should also be talked about the Rockies have been downright mediocre for the last month or so. They are four games below .500 dating back to June 20th. Their YTD run differential is not close to the top three teams in the National League: Los Angeles, Washington and Arizona. 

I actually faded Nola the last time he started (Tuesday), but that was an awful spot for the team has they had to go out West on no rest (hosted Atlanta Monday afternoon) while the Angels had the previous day off. Nola still only allowed 2 ER in 6 IP, but it was not enough as the Phils ended up losing 7-1. Still, it kept a streak alive of Nola allowing 2 ER or fewer in eight consecutive starts. He's obviously pitched a lot better than his record indicates. Over those L8 starts, he has a 1.66 ERA w/ a 63-15 KW ratio. Opponents are batting just .205 off him and have a .575 OPS. Nola clearly gets the edge here over Colorado's Jeff Hoffman, who has an ugly 10.38 ERA and 2.385 WHIP his L3 starts. In seven home starts, Hoffman has a 7.05 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. Starting pitching is still what matters most in handicapping MLB and this is a rare time when the Phillies have a huge edge in that department. The team has actually played better than its record this year as they have the run differential of a 44-win team, not a 39-win team. 10* Philadelphia

8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Pirates sure have had their issues w/ the "bottom rung" of the National League lately. The team's last four series have seen them go a combined 4-7 against the Padres, Giants and Reds. This is the second go-around during this timeframe w/ SD, whom they lost to last night, 5-2. Another loss and that means they would have dropped 2 of 3 in each of the last four series. I was on the Bucs when they took Friday's series opener, 10-6, and I'll jump back on them again Sunday (laid off yday) as they go for that elusive series win. San Diego, despite its minor success vs. Pittsburgh, still has the worst run differential in all of baseball (-134) and that includes some very poor numbers on the road as they're 20-33 and being outscored by 1.6 runs per game.

Jameson Taillon last pitched for the Pirates last Tuesday and things did not go well at all as he allowed eight runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP to the Reds. Hard as this may be to believe, but that was actually an IMPROVEMENT over his previous start when he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 IP at San Francisco. He did not pitch in the previous series w/ the Padres. While there's no "sugarcoating" how bad Taillon has been in those L2 starts, I believe there's a great shot he'll improve dramatically on Sunday. You have to look back and note that his ERA was 3.04 as of late July as he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in his L7 starts. Furthermore, it always helps a pitcher to face these Padres, who rank dead last in MLB (30th) in runs scored as well as team batting average and OBP. Taillon's only prior start vs. them (came last year) saw him toss eight scoreless innings. 

Also helpful here to Taillon is that his counterpart Clayton Richard is also struggling. Richard has allowed 4+ ER in six of his previous seven outings, the one exception coming against the Phillies, who have the worst overall record in MLB. Richard is just three starts removed from allowing 10 ER himself in a start. He's allowed nine more in the last two as well as 19 hits in 14 IP. Not surprisingly then, Richard has a 7-15 TSR for the season, including 3-7 on the road. His overall numbers are inferior to those of Taillon. Fading an awful team like the Padres when they're off a win just makes sense to me. Over the L3 seasons, they are 46-86 in day games and this season has seen them get outscored by 2.4 rpg in them! 8* Pittsburgh

10* Run Line San Francisco (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Fran suffered yet another excruciating loss w/ Madison Bumgarner on the hill last night, 2-1 here at home to Arizona. It was their second time in less than a week that they lost by one run w/ "MadBum" on the hill. There can be no sugarcoating what a "nightmare" season that has been for the Giants, who are -31.6 units at the betting window, thanks to 69 losses, 17 of which have been by one run (three in the last seven days!). In fact, only three teams in all of baseball have played more one-run games this season than the Giants' 34. One of them is Arizona, who has played 37. So given that and what happened last night, the RL seems like a very logical option to me for tonight. 

The Giants were ML favorites w/ Bumgarner (1-8 TSR) on the hill last night, but now that he's been beaten the script has been predictably "flipped" for tonight and very well could be for tomorrow as well. The starter going tonight is Chris Stratton, who is making just his 2nd career start. His 1st came all the way back on July 6th (at Detroit) and while he allowed five runs (in 6 IP), note that he was summoned to start just 20 minutes before the scheduled first pitch due to Johnny Cueto (who was supposed to go) having an inner ear infection. That obviously made it a tough spot, especially consider it was an AL park to boot, meaning he had to deal w/ a DH. Here, it will be an Arizona team that doesn't score nearly as much on the road as it does at home (saw that last night!). In fact, on the current road trip (we're eight games in so far), the D'backs have been held to four or fewer runs six times and they're batting just .218. Their scoring average dips a full run and a half per game compared to at home and as a result they have a losing record (27-28) outside of Chase Field.

The D'backs will start Taijuan Walker in this game. His last four starts have all resulted in team losses, even though he's actually pitched pretty well. But the offense has failed to support him, averaging just 2.0 rpg in the four starts. Arizona has been quite profitable to bet on this season, but rarely are they in this price range on the road. In fact, it's just the EIGHTH time all year that they find themselves above -125 on the ML on the raod. Their 20 one-run wins are the MOST in all of MLB this season and I see the Giants doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

6* Colorado (8:10 ET): Though they've experienced their fair share of struggles on the road (what else is new?), the Rockies remain a formidable ballclub within the confines of Coors Field and overall are four games above .500 since the All-Star Break. This is a series that they should dominate. They beat the Phillies last night, 4-3, despite losing starter Kyle Freeman in the 1st inning (injury). The win improved them to an impressive 34-20 at home this year as they are averaging 6.2 rpg (most in MLB). As for the Phils, they're just 16-40 on the road and being outscored by a full run per game in those contests. So, like I said, this is a series set up for the Rockies to do well. Philly has yet to win a game in August as they continue to post the worst overall record in MLB. 

The Phillies did outhit the Rockies last night, 10-7, but led only briefly when they took a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh. Colorado quickly tied the game up in the bottom half of that frame, then scored the go-ahead run in the bottom of the eighth. It was the second straight night that the Phillies' bullpen failed to protect a lead. What's surprising w/ the Rockies of late is that for four straight games, they've been held below their scoring average here at home. I will call for that streak to end here however as they face Nick Pivetta, who has an ugly 6.70 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in nine road starts this year. Pivetta did pitch well his last time out, but that was a) at home and b) against Atlanta. In two of his last three road starts, he's combined to allow 15 runs in just 7 2/3 IP and those came against two top offensive teams, Milwaukee and Arizona. Of course, as I said earlier, no team averages more runs per game in its home park than do the Rockies. 

Colorado counters here w/ Jon Gray, who has not been beaten in three home starts this season. Last time out, at Washington, it was a bit of a hard luck loss for Gray as he allowed only four hits in 7 IP at Washington, but two of them were home runs and the team lost 3-1. That was his 1st time allowing multiple HR's in a start this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts overall. Consider that Philly is one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball (2nd to last in runs) and they've averaged just 3.0 rpg over the last week. So the "Coors effect" can only help them so much. As for this lofty price range, don't be scared off. The Rockies are 5-1 as a ML home fave of -175 or higher this season and 12-6 in that range the L3 seasons. They are #3 overall for the year in net units earned at the betting window (+16.8) while the Phils are 29th (-20.7). This is every bit the mismatch it appears to be on paper. 6* Colorado

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Over the L10 days, the Pirates have had their fair share of trouble w/ what would be fair to call "inferior" opponents. They've gone just 3-6 against the Giants, Padres and Reds, losing two of three games in all three series. Yesterday (had them!) marked the second straight series that they avoided what would have been embarrassing sweep by taking the finale. It was a 6-0 win over the Reds on Thursday, led by Andrew McCutcheon's play at the plate and in the field. As disappointing as the Bucs' recent play has been, they're still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. So there's no reason to give up hope yet. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the Padres, who have the worst run differential in all of MLB (-133) and are 13 games back of the Wild Card. This series should go the Pirates way. Have I said that before recently? Yes. But this time, it happens.

Ivan Nova and Travis Wood both pitched in the last series between these teams, but not against one another. Still, Nova is out for revenge here after losing the second game of that series, 4-2, as he was the one charged w/ all four runs (in 5 IP). He did finish w/ 6 K's while not walking a single batter mind you. Of course, that was in Petco Park. Here in Pittsburgh, Nova has been much better this year w/ a 7-2 TSR, 2.83 ERA and 1.116 WHIP. I have to imagine he'll pitch better this time around as San Diego is a dreadful road team and anemic offensively. Not only are they being outscored by 1.7 rpg outside of Petco (19-32 record), but overall they are dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. They rank 27th in slugging. They've gone five straight games scoring four runs or fewer. 

Wood won the series opener the last time these two clubs faced off, doing so by allowing just two runs (both coming in the 1st inning) on two hits. It was - easily - his most effective outing of the four to date. Acquired in the Trevor Cahill deal w/ Kansas City, Wood has yet to start a single road game this season! I'd look for him to struggle tonight. Consider that previous to his last start, Wood had not gone a full five innings this year. His ERA remains 6.63 and I find it highly unlikely that he could win another pitcher's duel, which is basically the Padres' only way to success as they just don't score enough runs consistently. I still feel the Pirates are capable of staying in playoff contention while SD is - in my opinion - still the worst team in baseball. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Seattle (8:15 ET): The Mariners failed to exact revenge for a sweep that took place early last month, at home, at the hands of the Royals. They did jump out to a 3-2 lead on Thursday, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead and the final score ended up being 6-4 in the home team's favor. KC went into previous series (at Baltimore) having won 10 of 11, but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them in all three games and they were swept. Interestingly, like Seattle is here, Baltimore was seeking revenge for a prior sweep at the hands of the Royals. Unlike last night, the starting pitching matchup is certainly in the M's favor w/ James Paxton going. His recent form indicates that Seattle gets its revenge here against a KC team which I continue to maintain is "average at best."

Paxton has stepped up and become Seattle's top pitcher this year. He is coming off his finest month yet as he went 6-0 in July w/ a 1.37 ERA and as a result was named Pitcher of the Month (and rightly so!). He's allowed just SIX runs during that time (39 1/3 IP) and in the L4 starts his KW ratio is 34-1! It's a 0.45 ERA and 0.850 WHIP his L3 starts. He comes into tonight sporting a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out both the Red Sox and Mets, two of the higher scoring teams in baseball (at least on the road). The Royals' offense does not compared to either of those lineups as it only ranks 23rd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Seattle being in this price range is a good thing as they're 29-9 the L3 seasons as a ML road fave of -125 to -175. Despite an inferior record compared to KC, the M's have the better overall run differential of these two teams.

The Royals counter w/ Jason Hammel, who has pitched well himself of late. But I cannot see the team winning for a third straight time as an underdog (would be fourth win in a row overall) w/ him on the mound. Of those last three starts, Hammel (0.947 WHIP) has factored into the decision only once, that being his last time out. KC won at Boston, 5-3, with Hammel going seven strong innings. But he's not the better starting pitcher here and I'm just not buying the Royals are as good as their 11-4 record over the L15 games might seem to indicate. They've pulled out a lot of come from behind victories (32 for the year!) and have still been outscored over the course of the year, despite a 55-51 record. Paxton should be the difference maker here. 10* Seattle