8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): These two teams certainly appear to be trending in opposite directions as the Rangers have come to Yankee Stadium and taken the first two games by scores of 9-6 and 7-1. But the home team still has a chance to earn a split here and is a big favorite tonight even though Texas has won 20 of its last 25 games and has the best record in the American League. This is because Masahiro Tananka will be on the bump for the team wearing pinstripes and he's been quite good of late w/ six of his last seven starts being of the quality variety. Note that last night was only a 2-0 game heading into the eighth inning and Monday saw the Rangers rally late after a lengthy rain delay. After letting one get away and then ending up losing in such lopsided fashion, I anticipate the home team will be quite motivated here tonight.

The Yanks had been playing well prior to this series, winning five of seven and 10 of 16 overall. Granted, they'd taken advantage of some weak competition (Minnesota and Colorado), but they were at the .500 mark for the season. They drastically outhit the Rangers in the series opener (16 to 9!). It's odd to see that 10 of the 16 runs the Rangers have scored in this series have come in the eighth and ninth innings. Those are usually the frames where New York dominates with its awesome bullpen trio of Betances-Miller-Chapman. But because of the delay, it was a different reliever (Kirby Yates) that blew the game Monday. None of the three got in the game Tuesday.

After leaning on Cole Hamels yday, the Rangers are forced to go w/ Nick Martinez here. Martinez has made only two starts in 2016 and they really haven't gone well as he's given up seven runs in 10 1/3 IP (on 12 hits) and he has more walks than strikeouts. He also has never fared too well on the road. Going back to last season, his L7 road starts have resulted in an 0-5 record w/ a 7.82 ERA. As for Tanaka, the team is 6-2 this year when he toes the rubber at Yankee Stadium. Tip your cap to the Rangers for a tremendous month, but they are only third in the American League in run differential (+58) YTD and have clearly been a bit "lucky" (17-5 in one-run games!). This is one the home team "has to have." 8* NY Yankees

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these NL East powerhouses (no pun intended) came into this series somewhat reeling. The Nats won Sunday (I had 'em!), but had lost seven in a row prior to that and are currently w/o the services of one Stephen Strasburg (back). The Mets, meanwhile, simply can't score. They are one of only three teams yet to score 300 runs this season and the other two are the bottom-feeders in their own division, Philadelphia and Atlanta. An abundance of quality arms in the starting rotation has kept this team afloat, but tonight sees them most certainly not having the starting pitching edge. I look for Washington to make it three in a row over their main rival tonight.

The Mets' offensive woes continued last night as they were shutout by Nats' prospect Lucas Giolito. But it wasn't all Giolito as an 85-minute rain delay cut his outing short. Still, the Mets finished the game w/ only five hits. It was the ninth time they've been shutout this year and the 10th time in the last 11 games they've finished with four runs or fewer. Assuming this lack of offensive production continues (and I believe it will here), that obviously makes life quite difficult for starter Logan Verrett, who has enough problems of his own right now. Verrett is only back in the rotation due to an injury to Steven Matz. In a spot start earlier this month, he gave up three home runs and issued four walks in just four innings of work. That was after allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 IP last month in Colorado.

Max Scherzer is looking to bounce back after allowing five runs in Milwaukee last Friday. But, make no mistake about it, he's a big reason why I love this play. A 0.997 WHIP for the year indicates that he is deserving of far better than just a 9-7 team start record and his strikeout numbers remain pretty ridiculous as he's sat down 92 batters in his L9 starts (64 1/3 IP). Earlier this year, Scherzer suffered a hard luck 2-0 loss to the Mets as both runs allowed were solo home runs. He struck out 10 only to be outdueled by Noah Syndergaard. Something tells me he'll have little difficulty outdueling Verrett here as the Nats complete the sweep. 8* Washington

8* Toronto (8:40 ET):  The Blue Jays let me down yday (blew 4-0 lead) but alas I think they'll "get it back" today as I don't see Colorado being capable of producing another six-run inning like the one we saw last night, even here at the hitter-friendly confines of their home park. Though Colorado is now "in the black" when it comes to YTD run differential (+3), which has to be considered a bit of a surprise, Toronto is clearly the better team here (+31 run differential) and I expect them to show that tonight.  The Jays have a winning road record and are 10-5 this year when JA Happ is on the mound.

Meanwhile, Rockies fans have every right to be concerned with Eddie Butler being on the mound. First off, the team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the baseball. Secondly, he's been a disaster here at Coors Field w/ a 10.42 ERA and 2.105 WHIP.  He lasted only five innings in the thin Denver air last Thursday when he gave up six runs and 11 hits. Things went even worse for him two home starts ago when he lasted all of four innings and gave up eight runs on 11 hits and that was against lowly Cincinnati. Toronto's offense may not be performing at the near-historic levels we saw last year, but they still average 5.1 rpg vs. right-handed starters and are 9th overall in runs scored. Butler has yet to last longer than five innings in any home start and has allowed six or more runs three times.

Happ only lasted five innings himself his last time out, but he allowed only two runs and that was good enough for a 5-2 win over Arizona. Prior to that, he'd allowed only one run (unearned) in a 13-2 win over Philadelphia where he allowed just three hits over seven innings of work. In all but three starts this season, Happ has given up 3 ER or less. That's pretty impressive in my book. Into the sixth inning yday, the Rockies had only three hits for the game. While they've won three straight (and scored 29 runs in the process), I look for them to be cooled off tonight.  8* Toronto

5* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamonbacks were completely embarrassed last night as they lost 8-0 to the Phillies. However, I happen to be of the belief that when a home team suffers a loss like that, they typically are a great "buy low" candidate the following day. If you've been following along this season, then you already know that I have very little regard for the Phillies, who have the fourth worst run differential in all of baseball even after Monday's eight-run victory. They're lucky to even be 33-45 as nearly half (16) of those wins have come by exactly one run. Take one-run games out of the equation and the Phillies drop to 17-36.

Oh by the way, Zack Greinke is pitching tonight for the D'backs. While he struggled initially to adjust to Chase Field, those struggles now seem to be a thing of the past. The team has won eight straight times when he's on the mound and he was one out shy of making it five consecutive quality starts the last time we saw him as he allowed only 3 ER in 5 2/3 IP as Arizona beat Colorado 7-6 on June 23rd. In the midst of producing the 8-0 team start record, Grienke has posted a 2.18 ERA while holding opponents to a .191 batting average and .224 on base percentage. He dominated Philadelphia back on June 18th, giving up only one run on three hits over eight innings. I envision we'll be seeing a similar performance tonight.

Though I didn't have a play on last night's game, the result certainly caught me by surprise. Note Arizona had swept Philly (in a 4-game set) on the road last week, outscoring them 22-5. They were also coming off a series in Colorado where they produced a franchise-record for hits in a four-game set (56). So, it wasn't just the fact they lost, but that they were shut out as well.  But the real surprise has been the D'backs' somewhat pathetic 13-26 home record this season. That has to start changing soon, right? Fortunately, the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons when off a shutout win. While they finished w/ a season-high in hits last night (16), all but three of those came in the final four innings. Needless to say, with all the money invested in this roster, the D'backs did not expect to be staring up at the Rockies in the NL West standings at this point in the season. 5* Arizona

9* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I still can't believe that I was able to pull out a winner w/ last night's Under play. Certainly, I felt confident going in, but after the game was 6-2 after just two innings (O/U line was 8.5), things weren't looking very good. But from that point forward, the scoring was done and I was left w/ a somewhat improbable winning ticket. As for the respective sides, KC has to be feeling pretty good about itself after taking the opener of the I-70 series, but then again they've been "feeling good" all season long at Kauffman Stadium where they're now an impressive 27-10 (best home win percentage in all of baseball). As for the Cardinals, well, this has the look of "one of those seasons" as despite ranking 4th in MLB in run differential (+71), they're only three games above .500. I'm on the home team tonight.

The Royals are five games over .500, but have actually been outscored by 11 runs over the course of this season. That's not very impressive, but again, winning at home has not been an issue for this team. They're outscoring opponents by nearly a full run per game here in front of the waterfall and that's even after taking two terrible losses over the weekend against a hot Houston team. After giving up two runs early yday, on a two-run 1st inning HR by Matt Holliday, the Royals would not allow another Cardinals runner to score. In fact, St. Louis had just four hits over the final eight innings. Interleague play simply has not been very kind to St. Louis thus far as they're just 4-8 against the Junior Circuit.

After Danny Duffy was able to shut the Redbirds down on Monday, tonight it's Yordano Ventura's turn. Ventura, like his team, shares an affinity for taking the field at home. His team start record is a perfect 6-0 here in 2016 and his last time out (6.17) we saw him toss six-plus scoreless innings where he allowed only six hits and didn't walk a single batter. That followed an outstanding outing in Chicago (vs. the White Sox) where he posted a season-high 10 K's en route to a 3-1 victory. The reason it's been so long since Ventura last pitched is that he's coming off a suspension. That's all "water under the bridge" now though as he should be fresh. For the Cardinals, Michael Wacha has been better of late, but he still has shaky numbers (4.41 ERA, 1.357 WHIP) for the year. Their lineup is likely to be missing SS Aledmys Diaz (eye), which would be a big loss.  9* Kansas City

    

10* Under Indians/Braves (7:10 ET): Cleveland is on fire right now. There's simply no other way to put it. The Tribe have won 10 in a row, which is not only the longest active win streak in MLB, it's the longest win streak we've seen from ANY team all season. They're not just winning either; they're dominating as following an 8-3 win Monday here in Atlanta, the Indians have cumulatively outscored their opponents 68-21 over the course of the 10 games. Tonight sees them sending Corey Kluber to the bump and considering what he did his last time out, I anticipate him holding in check a Braves offense which ranks dead last in runs scored. Obviously, the Indians are heavy favorites for a reason here, but I like the Under as well.

Believe it or not, Atlanta recently went on a six-game win streak of their own. However, they've since cooled off (lost four of six) and that probably can be attributed somewhat to the fact they're back at Turner Field where things have not gone well all season long (11-30 home record). They'd also recently gone on another six-game streak, that being one of all Unders. That was snapped in the series w/ the Mets and then yday's game went Over as well, but the bottom line is this team is still 8-2 Under its L10 games overall. Facing Kluber certainly doesn't seem likely to turn their offensive fortunes around. Cleveland simply isn't giving up many runs period as of late with opponents batting just .171 against them the L7 games (2.1 rpg allowed).

Kluber went the distance his last time out, tossing a three-hit shutout against the Rays. He has a 0.932 WHIP on the road this season and a 0.826 WHIP his L3 starts overall. We can certainly count on Kluber holding up his "end of the bargain" here especially considering he'll be getting the baseball on a full seven days' rest. But what about keeping the Indians offense in check? They have homered 10 times in the last three games and have scored at least six runs in seven straight. But while Braves' starter Matt Wisler has had a bad June, he's still tied for the team lead w/ 10 quality starts (that's actually one more than Kluber!). Cleveland likely will have to settle for a low-scoring victory tonight. 10* Under Indians/Braves

8* Toronto (8:40 ET):  The Blue Jays invade Coors Field for a three-game set starting Monday and given what we've seen from the offense for much of June, this should be a big series at the plate for them. Saturday marked the sixth time since June 11th that they scored 10 or more runs in a game. Yes, I know that they were held to just two runs in the other two games (both losses) against the White Sox this past weekend, but yday they had to face Chris Sale. The Rockies don't have a starting pitcher even close to that same caliber in their rotation; in fact opposing teams have averaged a whopping 6.8 rpg here at Coors Field this season while batting .312! I look for a big offensive night from Toronto here en route to an easy victory.

The Jays also have a clear edge in starting pitching here as Marco Estrada will take the mound for them.  He has a 2.75 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in his 14 starts, so you can largely disregard the 8-6 team start record, which is somewhat misleading. His last time out, Estrada gave up only two hits (in 6 IP), but three runs as the team ended up falling 4-2 to Arizona. But that was the team's first time losing w/ Estrada pitching since May 14th. It's been seven consecutive quality starts for him. Toronto has a winning record on the road this season, including 9-3 as a ML favorite of -125 to -150 (25-14 in that range the L3 seasons). The team still has a +35 run differential as well and I feel is poised for a big second half provided the offense continues to move closer to 2015-levels.

Colorado has had no issues scoring of late as they're averaging 8.5 runs their last six games, scoring at least six times in every contest. But they've only managed a 3-3 split due to their terrible pitching, which just gave up 30 runs in four games to Arizona.  Starting tonight will be Jon Gray, who has a 5.34 ERA here in Coors Field. Gray lasted only four innings his last time out, the result of which was a 9-8 loss to the Yankees, and managed to walk five batters.  If Gray is expecting any help from his bullpen on Monday, then he better think again as this group has a woeful 6.19 ERA at home this season. 8* Toronto

10* Under Royals/Cardinals (8:15 ET):  The I-70 series has taken on a whole new meaning in recent seasons due to the Royals' resurgence, but this year has seen both Show Me State clubs take a bit of a step back. Both KC and St. Louis avoided what would have been sweeps by winning Sunday. KC beat Houston 6-1, at home, while St. Louis was able to win 11-6 in Seattle after dropping B2B games by one-run. While the teams come into Monday w/ identical records (39-35), note that the Cardinals' run differential is significantly better (+75 to -15), which tells me right away that they should be the favorite to win the series. But the first two games take place in Kauffman Stadium where the Royals are a strong 26-10. So, I'll refrain from a play on the side here and instead turn to the total. You can expect a low-scoring affair. Take the Under.

Now St. Louis has not been shy about scoring runs away from home this season. They are averaging 6.1 per game following yday's 11-run outburst, which has made the Over a strong bet when they take their act on the road.  But, it's not like this lineup had been doing a whole lot of scoring in recent days as they had scored four runs or less in eight of nine games prior to yday where the long ball provided the bulk of the production (6 HR's!). I do not expect them to have that same kind of success tonight facing Danny Duffy. While Duffy may not always go deep into games, he's allowed more than 3 ER only once in eight starts and three times has kept the opponent from scoring altogether. Behind him is of course an outstanding bullpen, one which sports a 2.81 ERA and 1.180 WHIP.

Adam Wainwright gets the baseball for the Redbirds, making his team-high 16th start of the season. After a bit of a rocky start to 2016, Wainwright has gotten back on track w/ seven consecutive quality starts and a 2.36 ERA here in June. His WHIP in his last three starts is sub-1.00 and the last time we saw him, he was a winner at Wrigley Field, which is no small feat. It should be noted that these teams played six times last year and the Under went 4-0-2. Only once in the past 10 meetings has their been more than seven total runs scored. 10* Under Royals/Cardinals

9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): It had been a positively miserable June for the Pirates coming into this series (5-17 overall!), but all of a sudden they find themselves in a position to sweep a Dodgers club that came into PNC Park riding a six-game win streak. Most surprising of all is that the Bucs beat Clayton Kershaw Sunday night as massive +230 underdogs on the money line. It's a very quick turnaround to the finale of this four-game set, a wrap-around that concludes Monday. I'm backing the Bucs here as they seem to not only have the "momentum" (I hate that word!), but the confidence after slaying Kershaw. 

It's been a bad month for Pittsburgh to be sure, but I think that it should be pointed out how the team still ranks third in on base percentage (.338). They've drawn eight walks in the three games so far in the series plus they have 26 hits. That's four more baserunners than the Dodgers have had in the three games. Given the OBP, it's a little strange to see the Pirates rank only 15th in MLB in runs scored. Something tells me the offense is coming. After leadoff man Jordy Mercer had to exit early Sunday night (took knee to the side of the head), it sure was nice to see Adam Frazier come in and give the team a lift w/ two hits in three chances. It should be noted that LA starter Scott Kazmir has a 5.18 ERA on the road this season and a 1.60 WHIP his L3 starts overall. If the Bucs can get to Kershaw, they can also get to Kazmir. 

Francisco Liriano is in the midst of a 'down year,' but the Pirates' starter does have good career numbers vs. the Dodgers w/ a 2.73 ERA in five starts. He's unbeaten (4-0) as well. It's really surprising to see how the team has lost five straight times when he's taken the mound, but note the offense scored two runs or less in four of those games. Outside of a pair of 12-run outbursts vs. Arizona, Liriano simply hasn't gotten much run support this year. But I expect him to today and it should be pointed out that the Pirates still sport a winning record at home while the Dodgers are a losing proposition on the road. The Pittsburgh lineup is batting .281 this year in day games. The Dodgers average only 3.1 rpg vs. LH starters w/ a .218 BA. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Oakland (3:35 ET):  Compared to the National League, a far more wide open race was expected in the AL this season and as we've almost reached July, very few teams are "out of it" in the Junior Circuit. One could make the arguement that these two are among the small "out of it group" as they are both among the four AL teams currently 10 games below .500 or worse. Right now though, the Angels (who I personally was very low on prior to the start of the season) seem to be in far worse shape as they've now lost six in a row after falling again to the A's yday, 7-3. Today sees Oakland going for the rare, four-game sweep on the road and I think they'll pull it off.

Sonny Gray has typically been the anchor in the Athletics' rotation for the last several seasons, but 2016 has been a bit of a different story as he has a 5.20 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 13 starts. He's personally on a career-worst five game losing streak which dates back to the end of April. But the team did win the last time Gray pitched, 5-3 over Milwaukee on Tuesday, with the right-hander delivering six strong innings. He allowed only two runs, one of which was unearned, and matched a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Angel Stadium has been a place where he's loved to pitch in the past (1.52 ERA L4 starts here), so I can see him finally earning that elusive 'W' today. It's not like the Halos have much of a homefield advantage this season; they're only 15-23 in their own park.

Speaking of struggling at home, Angels' starter Hector Santiago has a 6.55 ERA in seven starts here this season. He's looked better in his L2 starts, but a 4-0 TSR to start the season now seems like "forever ago." Since then, the team is just 5-6 w/ him on the bump. Santiago allowed four runs in 7+ innings when he faced Oakland earlier in the year. 10* Oakland

8* Washington (2:10 ET): I've been positively stunned over the results that have taken place this weekend at Miller Park where the lowly Brewers have been able to post B2B victories at the Nationals' expense. That leaves the Nats on a seven-game losing skid, but in terms of run differential (+69) they remain one of the elite teams in the game by ranking 5th in that department, ahead of both the Rangers and Giants, who are each playing above .630 ball for the year. I fully anticipate Washington avoiding the sweep on Sunday even though Stephen Strasburg again had to be scratched. Milwaukee's current win streak (four games) matches a season best and the previous 4-game win streak had come at the expense of Atlanta & Cincinnati.

The Nats are in danger of being swept in a second straight series. The week got off to an ominous start w/ Strasburg being scratched Monday in what was supposed to be a showdown vs. Clayton Kershaw. But the bigger problem for the team right now has been a lack of runs scored as they're averaging just 3.1 per game during the seven-game slide. Interestingly, even w/ Bryce Harper mired in a terrible slump, they have managed to outhit their opponents over the course of those L7 games. In their lineup is the top hitter in the game this year, Daniel Murphy, who collected three more yday. As far as Roark replacing Strasburg goes, note that before Tuesday, the former hadn't lost a decision in almost a month.

Roark still turned in a quality outing this past Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, allowing only three runs in 7 1/3 IP.  He'd 4-1 w/ a 3.19 ERA over his six starts previous to that one and in 8 of 15 starts overall he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. Five times he hasn't even allowed a single run!  I like Roark a lot better than the Brew Crew's Jimmy Nelson, who still has a 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts even after allowing just one run and six hits at Oakland on Tuesday. Milwaukee still lost that game mind you, 5-3, dropping Nelson's team start record to 0-4 in June. He'd allowed a total of 14 runs in the first three while lasting only 13 innings. The Brewers haven't swept the Nats since 2011 and I keep coming back to the rather sizable chasm that exists in the National League this year between contenders and non-contenders. When the two groups are matched up, I'm almost always going to side with the former. 8* Washington

    

8* Chi Cubs (4:10 ET): Well, the Cubs' longest losing streak of the season (four games) is now over and one could argue that they essentially had last night's game "in hand" after the top of the first as they scored four runs off starter Tom Koehler. The reason that one could make such an argument is that the Cubs are now an astonishing 44-3 this season when scoring four runs or more. Miami actually did score four runs of its own in the bottom of the first (more on that in a moment), but was really able to generate very little at the plate throughout the game. I feel that the Cubs should easily be able to get to their "magic number" of four runs scored here against the lightly regarded Paul Clemens, who will be making just his second start since 2013.

Yesterday's game was the first this entire MLB season where both teams scored at least four runs in the first inning. But, as alluded to above, the Marlins generally did very little at the plate Friday night. They managed only two hits for the entire game, one of which accounted for all their scoring - a 1st inning grand slam by Justin Bour. That only came about due to an error from SS Addison Russell and two walks, meaning all four runs were unearned for starter Kyle Hendricks. From that point on, Hendricks and the Cubs' bullpen dominated a Miami lineup which is tied for only 20th in runs scored. It should be a similar story today w/ John Lackey starting for the Cubs as he carries a 2.78 ERA, 0.979 WHIP and 9-5 TSR into this one. Lackey is working on a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts.

You probably don't need me to tell you just how dominant the Cubs have been this year. Their +163 run differential is more than double that of the second best team (Boston at +79) and they are a ridiculously impressive 29-5 in games decided by four or more runs. Injuries have become a bit of a concern here, but there's so much talent on hand that one could simply call this an "embarrassment of riches." Witness Wilson Contreras, who is now batting .412 since being called up. This is a real "tall order" here for Clemens, a spot starter for Miami, who gave up three home runs in his first start (vs. Colorado) and that was NOT at Coors Field. He has NEVER won as a starter in six big-league tries. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Baltimore, Game 1 (7:05 ET): I have to say that with an early 3-0 lead and getting +1.5 runs, I was feeling pretty confident Friday night w/ the Rays. They carried that lead into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Orioles finally put one on the board (didn't put a runner on base until that frame). The sixth inning is when things came apart though. There, Baltimore scored four times to take the lead for good. The final result obviously keeps the O's in first place in the American League East (42-30) and leaves the Rays 10.5 games back and a season-worst nine games below the proverbial Mendoza line. The teams will play a doubleheader Saturday and w/ TB now having lost eight straight, I've learned my lesson. The quick turnaround does the road team no favors here.

Manny Machado returned to the Baltimore lineup on Friday (had to serve four-game suspension for charging the mound) and paid immediate dividends w/ a home run in the eighth inning that put the game out of reach. You'll recall that Machado is batting .317 for the year and now has 18 home runs and 43 RBI's. The Orioles had already homered a total of 42 times in their last 20 games before last night, so w/ the two more longballs, Rays pitching definitely looks to be in trouble moving forward. Up in Game 1 will be Matt Andriese, who has been putting a fair share of runners on base his last three starts. That's why his WHIP is 1.558 as last time out he walked four batters.

The Orioles counter w/ Kevin Gausman, whose 2016 returns admittedly haven't been too encouraging. He's personally winless in 12 starts (4-8 TSR) w/ a 4.37 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. He's struggled in B2B starts, but this is an opponent he should handle. Aside from the first inning, the Rays didn't score last night and they came into the game averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 the L7 days.  Baltimore has really cleaned up at Camden Yards this season w/ a 28-13 home record. Their own offense is batting above .325 the last week. 8* Baltimore, Game 1

8* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): The team in pinstripes has generally been taking care of business during what you certainly could call a favorable stretch of games. It started last weekend in Minnesota when they took three of four from the Twins. They managed only a split w/ Colorado at home mid-week, but then were able to beat Minny yet again yday, 5-3, in the series opener here at Yankee Stadium. This is shaping up to be another good weekend for the Yanks, who are now back at .500 for the season. The Twins are a dreadful 23-50 this season. Not only is that the worst record in baseball, they have the worst run differential (-117) as well. They are only 8-25 on the road and just 2-9 vs. NY since the start of last season. I'd say it's fairly easy decision as to who to go with here.

Minnesota arguably "beat itself" yday, committing three errors in the loss. That's something that a team this bad simply cannot afford to do.  More bad news is that the Twins are just 4-17 vs. the AL East this season as well as 10-20 in day games. There are hardly any positives to report w/ Paul Molitor's club right now and that includes today's starter Ervin Santana, who carries a 2-11 team start record into today's ballgame. The only pitcher in baseball that has more "L's" in the column when it comes to TSR is James Shields at 3-12. Santana has a 1.602 WHIP on the road this year and had allowed 5 ER in three consecutive outings before actually beating the Yankees his last time out. I highly doubt the Yankees will lose to him twice in a row.

There were two really positive takeaways for the Yankes coming out of Friday night's game. One was the return of Mark Teixeira to the lineup. First base has been somewhat of a "black hole" for the club and Teixeira should somewhat solidify the position, but in the field and at the plate. Two was the performance of Aroldis Chapman, who hit 100 mph on the radar gun ELEVEN straight times yday! The Yanks' shiny bullpen trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Chapman is really coming together as the team is now 11-0 this season when they all appear in the same game. They've combined to retire 18 straight batters the L2 games, including a perfect 9 for 9 last night. Starting in front of them today will be Michael Pineda, who has a 1.091 WHIP his L3 starts. His job is simple - get this one to the bullpen. The Yankees are 14-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -175 to -200, including a perfect 3-0 in 2016.  8* NY Yankees

10* St. Louis (10:10 ET): Suffice to say, one could make the argument that these have been the  "unluckiest" teams in their respective leagues so far this season. Both sport run differentials that are among the top eight in the sport. St. Louis has outscored its opponents by 72 runs over the course of the year (tied for 3rd best), yet is only five games over .500 and that's after sweeping the Cubs in Wrigley earlier this week. Meanwhile, Seattle is actually now a game below .500, despite a +46 run differential. They've dropped six in a row, half of those by a one-run margin. In this series opener, I'm siding with the Redbirds as they had they day off yday and the Mariners are being forced to turn to Wade LeBlanc on the mound.

The M's lost in excruciating fashion on Thursday as Detroit scored the GW run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 10th inning. That was only after Seattle had the potential go-ahead run on third with nobody out in the top half of the frame (he ended up being thrown out at the plate). Something to keep in mind here is that the Mariners have actually been WORSE at home this season (15-18), continuing a three-year trend where they are just 92-103 at Safeco Field. Things may have reached a nadir yday as scheduled starter Adrian Sampson injured himself warming up. If you're wondering why guys like Sampson and LeBlanc are getting turns in the rotation, it all goes back to the crippling injury to ace Felix Hernandez. His ongoing absence from the starting rotation clearly coincides w/ the team's 8-19 slide the past 27 games.

So, it was supposed to be Taijuan Walker going in this spot for Seattle, but he had to be scratched due to a foot injury. So in steps LeBlanc, who will be making his first start of 2016. LeBlanc was just acquired Wednesday (from Toronto) and will be the seventh different starter for Seattle in the L7 games. Obviously, none of the previous six have won.  The Cards counter w/ Carlos Martinez, who is probably deserving of better than a 7-6 team start record given his ERA is 3.17 and his WHIP is 1.093. He threw seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball vs. Texas his last time out, improving his ERA/WHIP to 1.69/0.938 his L3 turns. St. Louis is an impressive 23-12 on the road thus far and outscoring teams by 2.0 runs per game! 10* St. Louis

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've had a pretty good pulse on this Arizona team the L2 days, first going against them on Wednesday (they lost 4-2 to Toronto) and then backing them yday here in Denver (they won 7-6). So, I feel pretty comfortable in the decision to fade them again here as they were a) a little lucky to hold on last night and b) no longer have Zack Greinke to turn to in the series. After falling behind 3-0 yday, the D'backs came back to take a 6-3 lead, only to allow the Rockies to tie the game back up in the bottom of the eighth. The road team won on a Nick Ahmed RBI single in the top of the ninth, but I don't see them being in a similar position tonight. Back the home team.

As I said in yday's analysis, Arizona has been shockingly good on the road thus far. They're now 22-15 away from Chase Field, but just because I took them last night doesn't mean I believe they'll be able to continue the pace. Greinke was a big reason for the 'play on' yday, but tonight sees them having to start Archie Bradley, who had given up four or more runs in 8 of 10 starts prior to his last time out where he was fortunate enough to face the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB (Philadelphia). Bradley has a 6.14 ERA in two career starts vs. Colorado. He allowed four runs in 6 IP earlier this year here at Coors Field, but got bailed out by his offense in what ended up being a 10-5 D'backs win.

This will be the third start of 2016 for Colorado's Tyler Anderson and he looked good in the first two. In 12 IP, he's allowed only three runs and 10 hits while his KW ratio is 10-1. He has yet to allow a home run. He's gotten next to no run support so far, which is why he's still winless, but considering the Rockies have scored a total of 22 runs the L3 games, that should change here.  Even after yday's result, the Rocks still have a better YTD run differential than the D'backs, so this price range is totally justifiable. 8* Colorado

8* NY Mets (7:35 ET): All of a sudden, the Mets can't seen to beat the Braves. This is the fourth series of the season between these two National League East rivals. The first two saw New York take five of the six games, which shouldn't be too surprising. But they've since lost four straight times to Atlanta, including 4-3 yday. How embarrassing. Given what we know about both clubs, this shouldn't be happening.  While 5-5 against the Mets this year, the Braves are 20-42 against everybody else. That includes a 10-27 home record. In a top-heavy National League, the Mets cannot afford to be losing games to such a sorry opponent. They were swept last weekend (at home!), but that will not be the case here at Turner Field. I'm calling for the Mets to get back on track tonight.

It's pretty obvious that the problem with the Mets right now is that they simply don't score enough runs. They scored 17 times in a pair of victories over Pittsburgh last week, but other than that they haven't topped four runs in any of their last 12 games played. Last night was a particularly brutal loss as they led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but then gave up a game-winning two-run home run. Fortunately, tonight they'll be going up against Aaron Blair. Opponents are batting .298 against this Braves' rookie and he has a 2-8 TSR in his 10 starts w/ a 7.19 ERA and 1.705. Blair has yet to go longer than six innings in any start and has yet to record a victory. If the Mets can't beat him, then they're in real trouble.

Right now, New York is dealing w/ a lot of injuries, which is a big part of the problem. The starting rotation has certainly not been immune, but tonight skipper Terry Collins has the luxury of sending Steven Matz to the bump.  Matz is actually off a hard luck result (where he opposed Blair) his last time out as he gave up only two runs and four hits in 6 IP, yet the Mets still came out on the losing end, 4-3. I expect Matz to step up in this "immediate revenge" spot though as he has a 1.80 ERA in four career starts vs. the Braves. As for Blair, his ERA after facing the Mets twice is 4.76. By the way, Atlanta has not won a game all season in which it has been a ML home dog of +150 to +175 (0-4). 8* NY Mets

8* Tampa Bay Run Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Though they've been able to maintain first place in the American League East for some time now, I'm not sure I'm sold on Baltimore. Sure, they won again Wednesday, but that was at the expense of lowly San Diego, who actually beat them the previous day. It's been a home-heavy schedule to this point for the Orioles, who have played 40 of their 71 games at Camden Yards. Their YTD run differential of +28 actually ranks only third in their own division and sixth overall in the A.L. I realize that this is another home game for the O's and that the Rays have had a miserable L7 days, but the road team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here.

Tampa Bay had been playing well at the start of June, but then ran into a pair of hot teams - San Francisco & Cleveland - both of whom swept them. That makes it seven straight losses for this club, who is clearly reeling. They also didn't fare well in their first visit to Baltimore this season, dropping both games in a rain-shortened series. But they then managed to take two of three when the O's paid a visit to Tropicana Field later in April.  The fact that starter Matt Moore has a 0.950 WHIP his L3 starts is certainly encouraging as he's been especially good in the last two, first giving up only two hits in seven scoreless innings vs. Houston (10 K's). Then he allowed just two runs and six hits in 6 IP vs. San Francisco.

Though both teams had Thursday off, I give a minor edge to Tampa Bay from a scheduling perspective as Baltimore had to play a make up game in Texas on Monday and has played 29 games in 30 days and that's before factoring in tomorrow's doubleheader. There's no guarantee that the return of 3B Manny Machado to the lineup (suspended L4 games) will result in any kind of boost tonight. O's starter Yovani Gallardo has yet to really look good this season, posting a 6.26 ERA and 1.696 WHIP and his last time out (1st start in almost two months), he walked four batters. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

1* Oakland Run Line (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm recommending grabbing the "+1.5" w/ the A's. Is everyone REALLY willing to trust Tim Lincecum after he made just one good start for the Angels? I'm not. The Angels also just got swept in Houston to start the week. Take the run line.

These teams just met last weekend, in Oakland, and the Angels took two of three. But the one Athletics win came w/ Kendall Graveman on the bump. He starts the series opener here for the A's, now the road team. Graveman allowed just one run on three hits and lasted seven innings against the Angels last Friday in what probably qualifies as his best start of 2016. That said, he has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his past six starts.

The day after Graveman led his team to victory, Lincecum did the same for the Halos, allowing only one run and four hits in 6 IP. I expect the Oakland hitters to fare better this time around now that they've all faced Lincecum once. Though the Angels have taken five of six from the A's so far in 2016, two of the wins were by one run and in only one of the games have they topped five runs. Road team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 1* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Arizona (8:40 ET): So, I went against the D'backs yday, but will back them here today. Why the change? Well, first off, it's a big-time drop in class of opponent (Toronto to Colorado). Secondly, and obviously this was the major one, Zack Greinke will be toeing the rubber for them today. While Greinke initially had troubles adjusting to his new home park (Chase Field), there have been no such issues on the road this year as he is 5-0 in six starts away from home (6-0 TSR) w/ a 1.47 ERA and 0.837 WHIP. Yes, this is hitter-friendly Coors Field he'll be pitching in tonight, but any damage he might suffer should be mitigated by the fact that counterpart Eddie Butler has a 10.29 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three starts here himself.

In yday's analysis, I brought up Arizona's unusual home vs. road dichotomy this season. The team is 13-25 at Chase Field, but 21-15 everywhere else. Their entire five-game win streak, which was snapped yday, came on the road. Even after the loss Wednesday, they've managed to hold opponents to 2.1 rpg and a .184 batting average over the last week. Greinke should keep the string of strong pitching efforts going. He's on a seven-start win streak and is 8-1 w/ a 2.39 ERA his L9 starts.  In his four June starts, Greinke has a 0.85 ERA and has allowed all of three runs in 31 IP. 

The Rockies return home having dropped five of six (all on the road). They've also lost the last three starts made by Butler, who has not helped himself by posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during that time. His last start here at Coors Field saw him allow eight runs in just four innings and that was against the lowly Reds. Don't let this price range scare you either; Arizona is a perfect 5-0 this year as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. 8* Arizona

8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): For the first time all season, the Cubs were on the wrong end of a sweep. They came out on the losing end of all three home games vs. St. Louis, matching their longest losing skid of the entire season. Note that when they lost three in a row the first time this season, it was two losses to the Giants and one to the Cards. The Cubs followed that up by winning their next six games. I believe it's once again an opportune time to back the best team in baseball as they visit an overachieving Miami club that hasn't exactly been doing a ton of scoring lately. The Cubs have a big-time edge in starting pitching here as well.

With numerous players on the disabled list currently, this is the first time all year that Chicago is facing some real adversity. But let's put things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Cubs' YTD run differential of +164 is more than DOUBLE that of the second best team (Red Sox at +77). They're outscoring opponents by 2.4 rpg and have actually been BETTER than that average on the road (2.9 rpg). This season has seen them go 7-2 w/ as a ML road favorite in the -150 to -175 price range.  As for Miami, well, the Fish have improved their own YTD run differential recently (now dead even in runs scored/allowed), but the fact they are four games above .500 tells me that they've slightly overachieved.

I like that Jon Lester is getting the baseball for the Cubbies. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road this year and over his L3 starts overall, his ERA is 1.29 and his WHIP is 0.905.  The Cubs have won all three games and are 11-3 overall w/ Lester on the bump this season. In fact, the team has won each of the last five times he's started. All five starts were quality ones and Lester allowed all of seven runs (five earned) during that time, while going 36+ innings. Lester is a much better option here than Wei-Yin Chen is for Miami as the latter has a 9.88 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in his L3 outings. That's obviously pretty terrible. Somehow the team has still managed to win two of those games, including the last one where Chen allowed six runs in just 2 1/3 innings. That won't fly here, however, as the Cubs are 43-3 this year when they score 4+ runs. Miami is actually being outscored by 0.6 rpg here at home. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under White Sox/Red Sox (1:35 ET): The White Sox are going for a rare four-game sweep on the road here, a scenario that I think few could have imagined. Coming into this series, the club had dropped 26 of its last 36 games and seemed to be in dire straits. But after pulling out B2B 3-1 victories in the first two games at Fenway Park, it was yet another two-run victory yesterday, albeit this time in more high-scoring fashion. I had a pretty logical Under play that won on Tuesday and will go back to that approach again here and that's even with one of this afternoon's starting pitchers struggling mightily - and that's putting things mildly.

James Shields has been an unmitigated disaster since coming over to the White Sox in a trade w/ San Diego. There's really no other way to put it.  In his three starts w/ his new team, he has a 21.80 ERA and 3.806 WHIP! Obviously, because of him and him only, all three of those starts have finished Over the total. Going back to his final start w/ the Padres, Shields is the first pitcher since 2012 to allow 6+ runs in four consecutive starts. But, as I often stress, it's a good idea to "buy low, sell high" in the world of sports betting. Simply put, Shields cannot continue being this bad (he'll be out of a job!). Note that prior to the L4 starts, he had not allowed more than 4 ER in ANY start this season! The Red Sox lineup that he faces here had scored all of four runs in three games previous to yday.

Meanwhile, the pitcher opposing Shields is one that we can count on, especially given his previous performances here at home. Rick Porcello has yet to lose in six starts here in Fenway, going a perfect 6 for 6 w/ a 0.983 WHIP.  His last time out, which was here vs. Seattle, saw him give up only two runs in 6 IP and finish w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. Before yday, Chicago had scored all of 12 runs its previous five games and had been held to three or less in 7 of its last 10.  They had only four runs on the board through seven innings last night before rallying to take the game in the final two innings. Day games have seen the White Sox average only 3.3 rpg this season (.230 batting average). Hopefully, we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth here, always a nice break when you're playing an Under. 10* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It's pretty rare to see the Twins favored on the money line. Last year, it happened only 35 times (in 162 games!). Because the club overachieved so much, they were able to turn a +20.2 unit profit at the betting window. This year has been a very different story. They are dead last in the league - by a pretty substantial margin - at the pay window (-22.8 units), not to mention have the worst record (22-48) and run differential (-112) in all of baseball as well. But as Tuesday showed, this matchup w/ the similarly bad Phillies is pretty ideal for them and I see Minnesota coming through again here for what would be their third consecutive victory.

At one point, you could have made the arguement that the Phillies were the biggest surprise in all of MLB. On May 19th, they stood at 24-17. But their poor run differential was a clear warning sign that a long losing streak was forthcoming and that's precisely what we've seen unfold. Since May 19th, the team has lost 25 of its last 31 games. That includes eight straight losses, which leaves them w/ a -107 run differential, worst in the National League. They are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball (231 runs), so Tuesday had to be particularly deflating as they scored 10 runs (matched a season-high), yet still lost. In fact, they 14 runs they allowed were also a season-high and the fourth time in the last eight game they allowed at least 10.

It's an admittedly ugly pitching matchup here on Wednesday. The Phillies' Adam Morgan has a 2-8 team start record w/ a 6.49 ERA.  Last time out, he allowed seven runs and didn't even make it out of the fifth inning. He gave up three home runs as well as the team lost 10-2 to Arizona. Overall, it marked the seventh consecutive time that the Phils lost w/ Morgan on the mound. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson hardly inspires much confidence w/ his winless record (1-5 TSR) and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. But at least he allowed only 3 ER his last time out in what I think qualifies as his second best start of the year. He's been a lot better at Target Field where he's allowed 3 ER or less in three of four starts. 8* Minnesota

8* Toronto (4:05 ET): I was really surprised to see the Blue Jays fall, at home, to the D'backs on Tuesday. Not only does the American League traditionally dominate Interleague Play, but Toronto had a bit of a "built-in" advantage in that Arizona had to play the previous day in Philadelphia. However, I should point to the fact that the D'backs scored four runs on just three hits while Toronto wasted a perfectly good start from Marco Estrada, who is now the ONLY pitcher since 1900 to allow five or fewer hits in 11 consecutive starts while going at least six innings every time out. I fully anticipate the home team rebounding tonight, as they should again have the edge in starting pitching and hopefully won't leave seven runners on base like they did yday.

This afternoon, it will be J.A. Happ toeing the rubber for the home team. Estrada held this D'backs lineup in check last night and so too can Happ here. Don't be fooled by Happ's somewhat pedestrian ERA; his WHIP (1.149) is pretty good and has actually improved over the course of his L3 starts. His last time out, Happ allowed only one run (and it was unearned) on three hits over the course of seven innings. The team has won four of his last five starts overall and five of six this year here at home. There have been seven different times this season, exactly half of Happ's starts, where he's allowed 1 ER or less.  As far as being this large a favorite on the ML, that should be just fine considering the team is 16-4 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -175 to -200. As a -190 ML favorite earlier this year, Happ led the team to a 12-2 win over the Rangers.

Arizona has now won five straight, all on the road. It's been such an odd season for them as they're 21-14 on the road and just 13-25 at home. But four of these wins during the current streak came at lowly Philadelphia. That series is a big reason why they've allowed just seven runs these L5 games. But Toronto came into Tuesday averaging 7.4 rpg over the last week. The D'backs' starter Wednesday, Robbie Ray, has a WHIP of 1.573 for the year. YTD run differential confirms that the Blue Jays are clearly the superior team here and remember they did out hit the D'backs 8-3 yday.  Wednesday has simply not been Arizona's day this season as they are just 1-10, plus they are 50-71 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Toronto

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Quite frankly, I was tempted to give out the Mets yday (as a premium release) w/ Noah Syndergaard on the hill (they were a free play). But he ended up being scratched. Fortunately for the Mets, they still won (2-1) and now they have the luxury of being able to send Syndergaard to the bump w/ an extra days rest. I'm not going to pass on this opportunity a second time. The Mets still have some work to do after an embarrassing weekend (were swept here at home by Atlanta!) and I think they sweep this brief two-game set.

The Royals came into this series having won eight of nine, all against division rivals. But in five of those last eight victories, they got away w/ scoring four runs or less. They weren't so lucky Tuesday, obviously. Let us remember that this is a National League park they're playing in here, which means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Something else to consider is Kansas City's somewhat frightening home vs. road dichotomy. While they've cleaned up at Kauffman Stadium so far this year (25-8), they're now just 13-24 away from home, getting outscored by over 1.0 rpg. Simply put, I'm not ready to buy into the World Series champs just yet. Despite being six games over .500, they have been outscored over the course of this season. Thus, I label them as a clear overachiever. 

Syndergaard has been the Mets' best pitcher this season. whether you're talking wins & losses (9-4 TSR), ERA (1.93), WHIP (0.98) or K's per nine innings (11.14). The team has won six of his last seven starts, including the last three. The performance he delivered his last time out was nothing short of masterful as he struck out 11 Pirates en route to a 11-2 victory. He lasted 8 1/3 innings and gave up only one earned run and five hits. He also didn't walk anybody. Note that his replacement for Tuesday, Bartolo Colon, wound up being lost after the first batter due to injury.  That speaks to the Royals' current offensive struggles.  Syndergaard leads his team to victory this afternoon.  6* NY Mets

6* Texas (8:10 ET): Perhaps, situationally, this is not a great spot for the first place Rangers as they had to play a make-up game yday. But they did win that game, 4-3 over Baltimore, and now get to stay at home to face the lowly Reds. Given the quality of opponent here, I have no problem backing the AL West leaders. Cincinnati has the worst run differential in the entire National League currently (-107) and is coming off a 6-0 loss on Sunday at Houston. Not only did that defeat drop them to 3-10 in Interleague Play this season, but it puts them in a spot they've yet to win in during 2016. That would be off a shutout loss, a situation that has seen them go 0-4 this season. Texas is really hot right now (and I'm not talking about the weather!), having won seven in a row. They are an easy call on Tuesday.

Rangers starter Colby Lewis has been on fire lately. The right-hander has led the team to victory in each of his last seven outings and in the last three he's posted fantastic numbers (1.96 ERA, 0.696 WHIP). He went the distance his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits against Oakland. He didn't allow any hits until the final inning. Before that, he went eight innings and again allowed only one run, this time giving up just three hits. So that's all of two runs and five hits he's allowed in his L17 innings of work. Cincinnati comes in batting just .219 over its last seven games and is just 28th in MLB (for the year) in OBP at .296. Lewis, by the way, is still unbeaten at 6-0 in 14 starts (10-4 TSR). 

Texas has won 10 consecutive series. If they win the next two games and sweep Cincy, that would make it 11, something no American League team has done since the '02 A's team that was chronicled in Moneyball. This Reds team is just 10-24 on the road this year, including 1-9 as an underdog of +175 to +200. They're just 5-18 in that same price range the L3 seasons. On the runs allowed side of the ledger, no team in all of baseball has given up more this season than the Reds (408). Consider that the Cubs have allowed only 196! On the road, they allow 6.4 rpg and Tuesday starter Anthony Desclafani has allowed 14 hits in 8 2/3 IP so far this season. The Reds' bullpen is a complete disaster w/ a 6.04 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. One could "poke holes" in the Rangers' resume, noting the number of one-run wins they've enjoyed, but the opponent here is one they should dominate. 6* Texas

10* Under White Sox/Red Sox (7:10 ET): After that fast start to the season, it's been mostly "all downhill" for the team from the Southside of Chicago as they've lost 26 of their last 37 games overall. But they did win yday here at Fenway Park, beating the Red Sox 3-1 as big underdogs on the money line (+190!) and now have the luxury of following that up by sending ace Chris Sale to the bump Tuesday. Considering there was an extra inning played last night and the teams still combined for only four total runs, it's reasonable to assume another low-scoring affair might be in the cards tonight, especially w/ Sale involved. Therefore, I'm on the Under in this one.

Now Sale has regressed some recently, posting a 5.59 ERA and 1.552 WHIP over his L3 starts.  But for the year, his numbers are pretty much what you'd expect. It's a 2.94 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 14 total starts and actually his numbers on the road (2.09 ERA, 0.987 WHIP) are better than his numbers at U.S. Cellular Field. Facing the top offense in the game here might seem like a bit of a challenge, but note that the Red Sox are averaging just 3.1 rpg over their last seven contests. Sale has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 14 starts. In 32 2/3 career IP vs. Boston, he has 36 strikeouts. His last time out saw him give up three runs in one inning, but that was all he allowed to the Tigers, who were held to just six hits in seven innings. Sale now has a 15-2 KW ratio his last two starts.

On the surface, it might appear as if we have some worrying to do w/ Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz given the way I'm playing this game. Buchholz has not started since May 26th and that's because he'd been ineffective. But so too has everyone manager John Farrell has tried in the #4 and #5 spots in the starting rotation, so Buchholz is back. Outside of one bad appearance vs. Baltimore, Buchholz had been looking good in a relief role, not giving up any runs at all in four of five appearances. He's fared well in the past vs. the White Sox as well w/ four quality starts in five tries. Four Chicago hitters - Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Brett Lawrie and Melky Cabrera - are a combined 11 for 81 lifetime at the plate vs. Buchholz. The White Sox have been held to only nine runs - total - their last four games. 10* Under White Sox/Red Sox

8* Under Angels/Astros (8:10 ET):  I'm on the Under in this divisional matchup. Both teams won via a shutout Sunday. The Angels won 2-0 over the A's and allowed just four runs in the series (just six runs in L4 games). Every game of the A's series stayed Under the total for them. Opponents are batting just .225 against them over the last week. With Houston, they've been just as stingy on the runs allowed ledger, if not more. Opponents are hitting just .222 them against the last week, averaging only 2.7 runs per game. The Under is now 10-1 their last 11 games overall after a 6-0 win over the lowly Reds yday. Just one time in those L11 games has an Astros game seen more than eight total runs scored. Again, go w/ the Under here.

Houston will have its best pitcher (this season) going today. Doug Fister has a 10-3 team start record, earning backers a solid +8.7 units. He is easily the best in the starting rotation in terms of ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.23). His last three starts have all been fantastic w/ him turning in a 1.40 ERA and 1.035 WHIP. He's allowed just three runs in 19 1/3 innings. The only one of those that went Over was a game where his offense scored 12 runs. That's unlikely to be repeated here as this is a team that's scoring just 3.7 rpg its last seven w/ a team batting average of .237. The Under is 7-3 in all Fister starts this season.

Angels starter Jhoulys Chacin does not bring in as decorated a resume.  His numbers in his last three starts have been particularly bad.  But, as alluded to earlier, this is not a good offense that he'll be facing tonight. Houston is batting only .238 for the year. In three career starts vs. the Astros, Chacin has posted a 3.15 ERA.  In seven of the last 11 games, Houston has been held to three runs or less. They scored 11 runs the L2 games, but that was against lowly Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Halos have scored two runs or less in two of the last three games. 10* Under Angels/Astros

6* San Francisco (7:05 ET): We have two teams trending in very opposite directions here. Pittsburgh is in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 10 of their last 11 overall, who have been "doubled up" in the last seven (outscored by 3.4 rpg). This is a bad spot to boot, as they come off a Sunday night game, on the road, where they lost to the Cubs 10-5.  That was the sixth times during this dreadful 1-10 stretch that they lost a game by 5+ runs. They might get to return home Monday, but only to receive a visit from red-hot San Francisco, winners of eight straight and fresh off a sweep of Tampa Bay. Oh by the way, the Giants will be starting ace Madison Bumgarner. They've won his last 10 starts. There's only one choice here.

If all of the above wasn't bad enough for the Bucs, they'll have to settle for sending the struggling Jeff Locke to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Locke's ERA and WHIP are both atrocious; they're 12.06 and 1.978 respectively. Last time out, he was shelled for seven runs in just four innings against the light-hitting Mets. That was after giving up 11 runs in 4 2/3 innings at Colorado.  Locke has faced off w/ Bumgarner once before and needless to say it didn't go very well. Last August, Locke allowed six runs and 11 hits in just five innings and his team ultimately lost 6-4. While Locke has typically pitched much better at home this year; I'm not sure PNC Park will be enough for the he and the Pirates, who have a 4-14 record in the month of June.  The Giants are also 15-9 vs. LH starters this year.

The Giants love being big ML favorites on the road. This season alone, they are 3-0 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher. They're 8-0 in that price range the L3 seasons. Obviously, most of those games have come w/ Bumgarner on the hill. As stated above, the southpaw ace hasn't done much losing at all lately w/ a 10-0 TSR his L10 starts, turning in a 1.27 ERA. He has a 0.738 WHIP his last three outings as he's allowed a total of just 12 hits in 20+ innings of work.  Going back to May 11th, the team has won 27 of 35 games and they have been positively dominant in the last seven, outscoring opponents by nearly four runs per game with a batting average that's basically .100 points higher. 6* San Francisco

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The best team in baseball, without a doubt, finds itself going for a sweep tonight at Pittsburgh's expense. While the Cubs and their amazing +166 run differential (double that of the 2nd best team) remain the story in MLB this season, the decline of the Pirates is something that simply must be touched on here. A team that has made the playoffs each of the L3 years (as a Wild Card) now finds itself below .500 w/ a negative run differential after dropping 9 of its last 10. They've been outscored by more than three full runs per game the last seven and Wrigley Field simply seems like the last place they'd turn things around. They are just 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2016.

Incredibly, all five Cubs' starters have WHIPs of 1.07 or lower and none have an ERA higher than 3.00. The one who has - clearly - been the unluckiest though is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks. Seven of the team's 20 losses this year have come w/ Hendricks on the bump. Simply put, he is deserving of a far better record. Here at home, his ERA and WHIP are 1.77 and 0.738 respectively and the TSR is 4-2. So that's good. He's off what I'd call his weakest outing in two months, starting opposite Max Scherzer in Washington, but even then Hendricks allowed only four runs (three earned) and six hits in 5 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-high) burned him.  But I see him bouncing back and earning a much deserved win tonight.

James Tallion's stock is sky-high right now after he held the Mets scoreless and to two hits over eight innings his last time out. But keep in mind that the Mets are the only opponent he's seen so far this season (started against them twice). The Cubs are a far different animal as they are third in all of baseball in runs scored and an amazing 30-4 if they score the game's first run. Even more impressive is their 42-3 record this year when they score at least four runs. The Cubs have scored at least four times in all seven victories this year against the Pirates, six times scoring at least six runs.  8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Cubs/Pirates (8:05 ET): The best team in baseball, without a doubt, finds itself going for a sweep tonight at Pittsburgh's expense. While the Cubs and their amazing +166 run differential (double that of the 2nd best team) remain the story in MLB this season, the decline of the Pirates is something that simply must be touched on here. A team that has made the playoffs each of the L3 years (as a Wild Card) now finds itself below .500 w/ a negative run differential after dropping 9 of its last 10. They've been outscored by more than three full runs per game the last seven and Wrigley Field simply seems like the last place they'd turn things around. The Cubs are averaging an impressive 5.4 rpg here this season. Take the Over.

The stock of Pirates' starter James Tallion is sky-high right now after he held the Mets scoreless and to two hits over eight innings his last time out. But keep in mind that the Mets are the only opponent he's seen so far this season (started against them twice). The Cubs are a far different animal as they are third in all of baseball in runs scored and an amazing 30-4 if they score the game's first run. Even more impressive is their 42-3 record this year when they score at least four runs. The Cubs have scored at least four times in all seven victories this year against the Pirates, six times scoring at least six runs. 

The Pirates offensive numbers have slipped during this slide, but they do remain sixth in team batting average and third in on-base percentage. Thus, it stands to reason that they should be better than 12th in runs scored.  Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has been rather unlucky this season, but did give up four runs his last time out. With the Cubs figuring to score a bunch tonight, I think the Pirates will still be able to cross the plate a few times as well. Thus, we get our Over. 10* Over Cubs/Pirates

8* NY Yankees (2:10 ET): I don't have a ton of faith in the Yankees moving forward, but it's tough not to like them Sunday as they look to finish off a sweep of the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. The Yanks have outscored the Twins 19-9 in the three games played thus far and the current price range has been quite friendly to them as they are a perfect 5-0 this season as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150. Right now, the Twins have very little to hang their hat on as they've dropped five in a row and eight of their last 10 overall. They are a hideous 10-37 off a loss this season. A -119 run differential confirms that, yes, this is indeed the worst team in all of baseball. Yanks have won eight of nine against the Twins since the start of last season (12-4 since '14).

Like most situations, day games have been unkind to Minnesota this season. Their record is just 9-19 in such contests. They turn to the struggling Ervin Santana today and w/ a 1-11 team start record, he now has ignominy of being the biggest money-losing starting pitcher in all of baseball (-10.5 units). Lately, he's been really bad w/ a 7.79 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. He's given up exactly five runs in every start while lasting just a total of 17 1/3 IP.  Last time out, he gave up a season-worst 10 hits in just five innings of work. In 17 career starts vs. New York, Santana owns a 6.22 ERA.

This is the fourth time this season that the Twins find themselves on a losing streak of at least five games. Their struggles against the team in pinstripes extends well beyond the last couple of seasons as they are just 27-71 head to head going all the way back to '02 and have even dropped 19 of the past 24 home games.  The club is now facing the prospect of being swept for a ninth time this season.  This is all obviously very good news for Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is embattled himself, but recall that he concluded May w/ a three-start stretch that saw him allow just 2 ER in 18 IP.  He should bounce back against this opponent.  8* NY Yankees

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets ought to be absolutely ashamed of themselves for dropping B2B games - at home no less - to the lowly Braves this weekend. After starter Matt Harvey regressed in the series opener, last night saw New York blow a 3-0 lead. They allowed Atlanta to score one run in four straight innings w/ the game winner coming on some plain lazy fielding. The Mets then had the potential game-tying run thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Such a loss simply cannot occur again if the Mets want to remain in the race for a playoff spot in the top-heavy National League. The fact Atlanta has won four in a row just shocks me. I cannot see them finishing off a sweep, however.

Remember the giant chasm, which exists in the NL, that I constantly harp on?  The fact is that only seven teams were expected to be contenders in the Senior Circuit this season. One of those seven, Pittsburgh, has begun to fall off the pace, but the other six all are sporting positive run differentials, something that no other NL club can currently claim.  Though six games back of the first place Nats right now, the Mets are currently in position for a Wild Card. They are also 4-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line. Despite having matched a season-high w/ four straight wins, Atlanta is still -102 in run differential and has the worst record in the N.L. Simply put, there is no way they should be able to come in and sweep the Mets. Before this series started, the Mets were 5-1 against the Braves this year.

Injuries have literally hurt the Mets, but they should not be an excuse against this weak opponent. On the mound, Terry Collins will turn to Jacob DeGrom, who has deserved a better fate than just 3-3 in 2016 considering a 2.82 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. Of course, the same thing could be said for his counterpart Julio Teheran here. But an Atlanta offense which has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball remains suspect and the team is just 7-14 in day games this season, averaging just 3.1 rpg.  6* NY Mets

5* NY Mets (8:15 ET): The line is here is typically higher than something that I would play, but the justification here should be pretty clear. This is an outstanding bounce back spot for the Mets, who suffered an embarrassing loss last night here at home to the lowly Braves. Really, one could see it coming as most were too quick to proclaim "Matt Harvey is back!" Tonight though, it's all about the fact the Braves, a terrible team that has actually won three straight, send a terrible pitcher to the mound, that being Aaron Blair, who in nine starts has a 7.59 ERA and 1.810 WHIP. This one shouldn't even be close.

The Mets counter w/ Steven Matz, who is off his worst showing since his first start of the season. In between his first and last starts of 2016, Matz allowed 3 ER or less nine straight times and didn't give up any runs in four of those outings.  The team has now lost three straight times w/ him on the bump, which is pretty shocking when you consider he was 11-1 w/ a 2.32 ERA over a 14-start stretch that went back to last June.  Matz should love pitching against a Braves lineup which has produced the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball. 

The Mets' own offense could use some help and that's where Blair comes in. Not only does he have more walks than strikeouts this year (yikes!), but the Braves' rookie starter also has lasted six full innings only once. There have been just three times he's lasted even five innings.  In what is shaping up to be a very top-heavy National League, the Mets simply can't afford to drop multiple games to a horrible team like Atlanta, who still owns the National League's worst run differential at -103. They bounce back Saturday night.  5* NY Mets

    

10* Toronto (4:05 ET):  The Orioles came "flying high" out of the gate this season, which was a surprise to me and a lot of other folks who had Buck Showalter's team pegged for a last place finish this year in the American League East. But looks can often be deceiving and in the case of Baltimore, they very clearly benefited from a home-heavy early portion of the schedule. While their home win percentage remains a lofty .667 (24-12 record) and this weekend's series is indeed taking place at Camden Yards, the fact is that Toronto is the hotter team right now (won 13-3 here yday) and now has a better YTD run differential as well (+43 vs. +20).

Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey toes the rubber this afternoon for the Blue Jays and while the results have mostly not gone his way in 2016, it's not as if he's pitched that poorly. Last time out, he allowed only three runs on five hits (in 6 2/3 IP), yet ended up on the wrong end of a 7-0 decision against lowly Philadelphia. Dickey's ERA has dropped by a full run and a half since the start of May as he's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of nine starts. He has a pretty decent career ERA here at Camden Yards (3.32) in seven career appearances, six starts. In general, he's pitched better on the road than at home this season.

You probably remember how the Jays "lapped" the rest of the field last season in terms of runs scored. Well, after a relatively slow start at the plate this season, this offense is now back up to "its old tricks." They've scored 10+ runs in five of the last seven games. Had they not been shockingly shut out in the series opener vs. Philadelphia, a scoring average of 9.3 rpg would be even higher.  This is all makes this a very tough spot for O's starter Yovani Gallardo, who will be making his return from a month-plus long stint on the DL. In four April starts, Gallardo did not look good at all w/ a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP.  The entire Baltimore starting rotation is in shambles right now as opponents are batting .310 the L7 games and in the last three games vs. Toronto, they've allowed a total of 34 runs! This is simply not an ideal matchup right now for the home team. The Blue Jays have won seven of eight overall, outscoring opponents by nearly a 2:1 margin. 10* Toronto

8* Arizona (3:05 ET): If you've been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you should probably be aware of the fact that I was quick to point out what an overachiever the Phillies had become in the early part of the season. Their won-loss record still remains a bit "propped up" due to a 15-6 record in one-run games (also perfect 4-0 in extras). But the bottom line is this is most certainly a bad ballclub, confirmed by a run differential that has now reached a woeful -94, a number that only three other teams (Reds, Twins, Braves) can claim to be worse than. Lately, the Phils have been just dreadful, getting outscored 41-9 during a four-game slide that includes a 10-2 loss here to Arizona yday. It'll be more of the same Saturday afternoon as they have to face Zack Greinke.

Greinke initially had trouble adjusting to his new uniform, particularly when pitching at Chase Field. But he's over that now and has been really good on the road this year. In fact, the team has won all five of his road starts in 2016 w/ Greinke turning in a 1.54 ERA and 0.914 WHIP in those outings. Lately, he's just been superb regardless of locale as his ERA and WHIP are 0.78 and 0.783 respectively his L3 starts overall. He didn't allow any runs to either Houston or Tampa Bay and then beat the Dodgers his last time out, by allowing just two runs in seven innings. The Phillies lineup that Greinke will face today is MLB's second worst in terms of runs scored and averages only 2.8 per game at home.

Offensively, Arizona could not be stopped last night as they belted a franchise record six home runs off Phillies pitching. Every starter in the lineup finished w/ at least one hit.  That makes it 17 home runs and 56 hits allowed during this four-game losing streak by Phillies pitching and while tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff has been relatively immune to the longball recently (none allowed L2 starts), his issue is control (four walks his last time out).  When you're a bad team like the Phillies, it becomes a real killer to "beat yourself" in the field, yet that is precisely what this team has done by committing seven errors the last two days. The road team should win easily here - again. 8* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  The Dodgers let me down last night as they lost 8-6 here at home to the Brew Crew, but I look for them to bounce back tonight at Chavez Ravine. Remember that Milwaukee arrived here having been swept in their previous series (by the Giants). I'll continue to point to that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League and in the case of this matchup we have one team better than its won-loss record and another not as good. The Dodgers might be only 35-33, but they've outscored opponents by 37 runs this year. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is actually now "sniffing" .500 (31-36), but has been outscored by 52 runs in 2016.

Last night's game saw the Brewers blow a three-run lead, but then rally back to win the game in the top of the ninth via a two-run Jonathan Villar home run. The win snapped a four-game road losing streak for the Brew Crew, who are still just 12-19 away from Miller Park this season.  I'm fairly shocked to see the numbers of starter Zack Davies, who has not lost in his L5 starts overall and has a 0.86 ERA and 0.571 WHIP his last three.  Few could have seen this coming after his ERA was 8.78 after three starts this season. This will be his first time ever facing the Dodgers. I think it's an opportune time to "sell high" on Davies. Keep in mind that in three road starts this year, he has a terrible 7.82 ERA and 2.054 WHIP.

Conversely, it may be a good time to "buy low" on the Dodgers' Jose Urias, a highly touted prospect that his failed to produce thus far. But he has been better in his last two starts, first allowing just a single run (in 4 IP) vs. Colorado and then giving up only two (in 5 1/3 IP) in what ended up being a hard luck loss at San Francisco his last time out. But Urias' KW ratio in those two starts is 14-2, which is certainly encouraging.  To me, this is a really low price on the Dodgers at home against a National League also-ran.  The team is 30-17 the L3 seasons as a ML home favorite of -150 to -175.  8* LA Dodgers

9* Over LA Angels/Oakland (9:35 ET):  The Angels come into this series riding a four-game Over streak and just scored 10 runs in their last game, a win over the lowly Twins. Though they now have to hit the road, it's not much of a step up in competition as they face an Oakland team that has been outscored by 59 runs so far. The A's offense certainly has some work to do here as they were held to just two hits in their last game, a 5-1 loss to the Rangers here at home. That was their third consecutive defeat and you'll note that the first three games of the Texas series, including a 14-5 win on Monday, all went Over. That's the way I see this series opener going as the Over is 24-14-3 the L3 seasons when these AL West rivals meet.

Oakland's scuffling offense may get a bit of a repreive here as it is set to go up against Matt Shoemaker, who has a 5.27 road ERA.  Shoemaker is coming off - by far- his best outing of 2016 as he pitched eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball on Saturday vs. Cleveland, finishing w/ an 11-1 KW ratio.  But I sense regression will be in the cards tonight.  There has been three times this year where Shoemaker has allowed at least six runs while failing to make it out of the third inning.  He did dominate the A's, here in Oakland (allowed only one hit in six scoreless innings), but I wouldn't look for a repeat of that performance here.  Since April 30th, Shoemaker has allowed 14 runs and 23 hits in 15 innings of work on the road. He's allowed six home runs in his five road starts overall.

As touched on before, Oakland has been swinging the bats well of late. Yes, they were almost no-hit by the Rangers' Colby Lewis on Wednesday, but before that they had scored 31 runs on 50 hits the previous four games. The problem for them tonight is that the Angels also come in swinging the bats well as they just scored a total of 19 runs in their last series. I expect A's starter Kendall Graveman to struggle tonight because quite frankly he's been struggling all season, his last five starts in particular. During that time, he's allowed 35 hits in 24 1/3 innings while also issuing 11 walks. He has a 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts.  9* Over Angels/Athletics

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The first place Indians are off a very disappointing series against the division rival Royals, who swept them in a three-game set in Kansas City. But the Tribe now returns home to face a White Sox club that has been reeling for more than a month. Right off the bat, Cleveland draws a break in knowing that they won't have to go against Chris Sale this weekend. Of course, they did beat Sale and ended up taking three of four when these AL Central rivals met last month. That series really set in motion the White Sox downturn and even though they just took two of three from the Tigers this week, the fact remains they are a pretty woeful 10-23 their last 33 games. Obviously, I like Cleveland in tonight's series opener.

What an odd season the White Sox' Jose Quintana is having.  He has a 2.66 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his 13 starts, but the team is just 6-7.  That ERA actually ranks 4th in the American League, but the problem has been a lack of run support as the offense is supplying him w/ just 2.67 per start.  Each of his last six starts have resulted in team losses and the offense has scored only eight runs total in those games. Totals players will want to know that each of Quintana's last 12 starts have stayed Under the total. The last time these teams met, Quintana was on the hill for Chicago and it was a 4-3 loss.  He allowed all three runs in six innings of work and that was at home. His last road start (at Detroit) was his worst all year as he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 IP. 

For the first time in three weeks, Cleveland had an off day. They counter w/ Trevor Bauer, who is off strong B2B outings, both on the road. The first saw him allow just one run and five hits in 7 2/3 IP (10-1 KW ratio) at Seattle. The second saw him go eight innings and allow just three runs in a hard luck loss to the Angels.  Only once in his nine starts this season has Bauer allowed more than three earned runs.  Consider that only twice all season has Cleveland been on a three-game losing streak. Both times saw them win their next time out.  Opponents are batting .293 against White Sox pitching over the last week while averaging 5.1 rpg.  10* Cleveland

8* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): A three-game set in San Francisco didn't go well at all for Milwaukee as they were swept and outscored 24-8 in the process. Now they travel down I-5 to Chavez Ravine and this weekend holds little promise as they face a Dodgers team that's every bit as good as the Giants. LA comes in off B2B victories over Arizona, including 3-2 yday w/ Clayton Kershaw on the bump. Perhaps not having to face Kershaw is the Brew Crew's only "saving grace" in this series, but the fact remains these teams are "miles apart" in terms of run differential with Milwaukee checking in at -54 and the Dodgers at +39. In both cases, the won-loss records are a bit misleading. I constantly harp on that giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League this season and that's something I'll look to exploit this evening.

The road has been unkind to the Brewers so far this season as they've gone 11-19 while being outscored by nearly 1.5 runs per game. Opponents are scoring 5.1 rpg while batting .280 when at home against the Brewers. Scoring has been a bit scarce this season at Dodger Stadium, but in that regard it's tough to like Milwaukee's offense which averages only 3.7 rpg on the road while batting a collective .231. Overall, the Brew Crew have dropped five of the last seven meetings w/ the Dodgers. Tonight's starter Junior Guerra has probably been Milwaukee's best arm so far this season, but he's typically gotten lousy support (five runs or fewer in all but one start) and that should be the case again here.

Beyond Kershaw, the Dodgers' starting rotation is largely in shambles right now due to injuries. But the one reliable option beyond Kershaw has been southpaw Scott Kazmir, who fortunately toes the rubber tonight. Kazmir hasn't lost a decision in over a month, turning in a more than respectable 3.47 ERA in six starts w/ 39 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings pitched. He's allowed 3 ER or less in each of his last four starts and remember he did beat Jake Arrieta (at Wrigley!) during that stretch. Another good thing w/ the Dodgers is that you can count on their bullpen, which has been the best in the NL this year (3.00 ERA). 8* LA Dodgers

9* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the American League as the Yankees arrive in the Twin Cities on a four-game losing skid, having been just swept in a short two-game series in Colorado. Their -26 run differential confirms that they are indeed the worst team in the AL East right now, but if there is a "cure" for what ills them, then it would certainly have to be playing the Twins, who are easily the worst team in the league right now at 20-47 w/ a -109 run differential. Last season saw the Yanks take five of six from a Minnesota team that was playing a whole lot better. The guys in pinstripes are certainly receiving a lot of "love" in early betting and when a road team draws this amount of support, you typically want to back them.

What a renaissance for CC Sabathia in 2016. The hefty lefty is currently working on a 14-inning scoreless streak and improbably is top ten in ERA in all of baseball right now (fourth in American League)!  In fact, through 10 starts, Sabathia has never had an ERA this low in his entire career! He's actually healthy this year (helps!) and since May 4th, that ERA is 0.71 over six starts, the lowest ERA he has ever produced over a stretch of that length in his entire career. Even more encouraging is the fact that Sabathia has typically dominated Minnesota throughout his career, going 17-9 against them all-time (3.20 ERA), including 5-1 as a member of the Yankees.  The lineup he'll be facing tonight managed only five hits in a loss to the Angels last night. There's also the issue of a relatively quick turnaround for the Twins after returning from the West Coast early today. The Yankees at least played in the daytime yday and one time zone closer. The Twins' top hitter, Joe Mauer, is just 7 for 43 lifetime (.163 BA) vs. Sabathia. 

Minnesota will counter CC w/ Kyle Gibson and that's not really a fair fight. Gibson has yet to win a decision here in 2016 and in five career starts vs. the Yanks has a 10.72 ERA. Last time out, he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-4 to the Red Sox. Though New York is just 13-20 on the road overall this year, they are a perfect 3-0 as a ML favorite in the -125 to -150 range. Minnesota is 2-5 this year after allowing 10+ runs its previous game. 9* NY Yankees

10* Over Mariners/Rays (1:05 ET): Despite possessing a run differential that is 5th best in all of MLB (+53), Seattle is struggling right now. They've now lost four in a row and are just three games above .500. With 13 innings being played yday and a final score of 3-2, the expectation here will almost assuredly be for another low-scoring affair, especially w/ the quick turnaround between games.  On the surface, Thursday afternoon's pitching matchup seems encouraging for Under bettors as well. But looks can often be deceiving. Only Boston has scored more runs than Seattle this year, at least among American League teams. Tampa Bay has gotten hot (won 9 of 11) and will be going for a sweep today. Plus, they've scored at least six runs in half of their L10 ballgames. Take the Over.

Seattle starter James Paxton has yet to win in three tries despite a 2.50 ERA. Again, on the surface, that seems a little cruel. But upon closer inspection, it is revealed that he also has a 1.562 WHIP, so he's definitely letting plenty of hitters get on base. Last time out, he gave up six hits and issued two walks in 6 2/3 innings, but no one scored. Paxton's one road start was w/o question his worst as he was hammered for eight runs, admittedly only three earned (that also shows how ERA can be misleading) in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Keep in mind that was against a light-hitting team (San Diego) in a pitcher's park. Paxton's last two starts were about as low-scoring as you can get overall as the results were losses by scores of 3-1 and 2-1. But the offense figures to be more supportive today and Paxton won't be as good.

Tampa Bay's Blake Snell has made just one start in 2016. That came all the way back on 4.23 against the Yankees when he allowed only one run and two hits in 5 IP. Since then, he's been down at Triple-A Durham. I wouldn't be putting a ton of stock into one big league start.  As for day games, Seattle comes in averaging 5.2 rpg while Tampa Bay is at 4.4. As for the Rays lineup, they fare quite well against lefties w/ a .272 batting average and scoring average of 5.3 rpg.  10* Over Mariners/Rays

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox hot start (to the season) is now a thing of the past as they lost again yday (11-8 to the Tigers), dropping them to a miserable 9-23 their last 32 games overall. Even when they did beat the Tigers on Monday, it only came after falling into a deep 7-0 hole early.  But tonight's play is all about one man and that's Chris Sale. The staff ace has hardly been immune to his team's losing ways over the last month, but I did take him his last time out and while it was actually one of his poorest outings of the season, it resulted in a win nonetheless. Having still allowed 2 ER or fewer in eight of his L11 starts, I expect the result to be the same for Sale here, only this time w/ a better individual performance.

Having fallen behind 7-0 and 10-2 the L2 days, Chicago clearly is in dire need of a strong start here. Fortunately, they have the luxury of turning to Sale, who became MLB's first 11-game winner last Friday. Yes, he did allow five runs and a season-high 11 hits. But, taking the full season into account here, it's certainly reasonable to expect him to bounce back. Now he did take a loss at Detroit back on 6.4 after allowing four runs on nine hits. But, again, the second go around should go a lot smoother than the first. Especially because it takes place at home. Here at U.S. Cellular Field, Sale has a 5-1 team start record and 1.042 WHIP. Last time out was a real anomaly as he gave up three home runs for just the sixth time in his career and a HR to a LH batter for just the third time in his entire CAREER! Again, he still got the win.

Mike Pelfrey will be starting opposite Sale for a second time this year. Overall, Pelfrey has been a little better of late, but he did take the loss his last time out due in large part to five walks. Of course, he also really didn't have much of chance seeing as his offense was shut out.  It's also hard to discount an earlier stretch in the season where Pelfrey allowed five runs in three consecutive starts. He has a 1-6 record (Only win against Sale and White Sox!) and 1.729 WHIP on the season.  He's unlikely to get the kind of run support he'd require for a win here, so I'm backing the home team with its ace on the hill.  8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Astros/Cardinals (7:15 ET): Former division rivals, playing the Cardinals never seemed to go very well for the Astros back when they were still a National League team. In fact, they'd lost 13 of 15 head to head matchups before switching leagues. Of course, that came at a time when Houston was at or near its nadir in the rebuilding process. Last year saw the team break out for 86 wins and a playoff berth. They've obviously disappointed quite a bit so far here in 2016, but yday's series opener did see them defeat the Redbirds at long last, 5-2, thanks to starter Doug Fister not only throwing seven-plus quality innings, but also contributing a two-run single to help his own cause. Interestingly, it was the seventh straight game where Houston stayed Under the total. That's the way I see this one going tonight.

St. Louis has had a nice sustained run of excellence the last few years, but as is the case w/ Houston, 2016 has brought some regression. Not in terms of actual level of play, mind you, as the team's run differential is actually +71, which is fourth best in all of baseball. But rather, in terms of won-loss record. The team is now just 35-29 and seemingly underachieving. Some of that is the predictable regression we've seen from the pitching staff, which last year turned in otherworldly numbers.  That being said, tonight's starter (Adam Wainwright) has shown signs of turning things around lately w/ B2B quality outings & a 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts. He's off one of his best starts of the year, in fact, having allowed just two hits in 6 IP at Cincinnati last Thursday. He finished w/ a 9-1 KW ratio, his best of the year. Houston, as we know, strikes out a lot as in the most times in all of baseball (639) so far. Over the L7 games, the Astros are batting just .219 while averaging only 3.0 rpg.  Over the course of his career, Wainwright has really dominated Houston, going 13-1 against them w/ a 1.57 ERA. That's the lowest ERA by any pitcher w/ at least 10 starts against Houston in history. The Cards' offensive numbers remain impressive, but they were held to just five hits yday. That should hopefully lead to a reprieve for Astros starter Colin McHugh, who lasted only 3 2/3 innings his last time out.  10* Under Astros/Cardinals

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): As one probably should have expected, the Blue Jays bounced back in a major way Tuesday, winning in emphatic 11-3 fashion. The previous day saw them lose in similarly embarrassing fashion, by a score of 7-0.  Bettors took Toronto all the way up to almost -300 on the money line yday, but with this Interleague series now shifting scenes to Philadelphia, we are now able to grab a far more affordable price on the better team. I've stated my opinion on Philly many teams throughout the course of this season; this is a bad team being "propped up" up a very fortunate 15-6 record in one-run games (most one-run wins in all of baseball). They are also 4-0 in extra-inning games (most such wins w/o a loss in all of baseball). With yday's loss, their run differential has now dropped to a hideous -70, which is fourth worst in all of baseball and more indicative of a 23-win team, not a 30-win one.

I really like Toronto tonight w/ Marco Estrada on the hill. He comes in w/ a 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Toronto victories. In fact, the team has won each of his last five starts w/ Estrada turning in a quality outing every time. His ERA and WHIP are 2.57 and 1.004 respectively in 12 starts and his last time out saw him hold a strong Baltimore lineup to just three runs and four hits in six innings of work. This is a far more favorable matchup for him as the Phillies come in having scored the second fewest number of runs in all of baseball.

Meanwhile, the Phillies' Jeremy Hellickson is coming off an awful showing where he gave up seven runs at Washington last Friday. Though the Blue Jays were surprisingly shut out on Monday, their offense is finally starting to come around as they've scored 10 or more runs in three of the past four ballgames. Note that the Phillies are 9-19 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. So, I would expect the Jays, who are hitting a collective .278 the L7 games, to get to Hellickson here. In the grand scheme of things, these teams are trending in very opposite directions w/ Toronto winning 17 of its last 25 while Philadelphia has lost 18 of 24 including five of their last six. 8* Toronto

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres were beaten up pretty good last night, losing at home 13-4 to Miami. I expect them to bounce back tonight behind the underrated Drew Pomeranz. Note that I continue to maintain that the Marlins are pretty overrated, at least in terms of won-loss record. They still have a run differential of -10, even after last night's big win, so them being a couple games above .500 really is not indicative of how well they've actually played this season. Home teams that suffer losses like the one San Diego did last night typically bounce back strong the following night. Sure enough, the Padres are 5-2 this year after giving up 10+ runs their previous game. They are also 3-0 as a ML home favorite of -125 to -150.

When talking about starting pitchers "deserving" of better records, Pomeranz name must be on that list. Though his TSR is just 5-7, Pomeranz has pitched well w/ a 2.44 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. In five of his 12 starts, he hasn't even been charged with an earned run! There have been only two where he's allowed more than three. In five home starts, that ERA drops down to 1.52.  Make no mistake about it, Pomeranz is now the Padres de facto ace as he ranks second in the entire National League w/ a 1.34 ERA in night games, sixth in K's per nine innings (10.7) and third in opponents batting average .184. Miami's leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki may sit here as he approaches 3,000 career MLB hits and Pete Rose's all time professional record of 4,256 (Suzuki had 1,278 hits in Japan). Giancarlo Stanton (who sat yday) has been awful of late, going 3 for 25 at the plate and he's now a woeful .192 this year.

San Diego's top hitter Wil Myers leads all of MLB w/ seven home runs in June after hitting another yday. That was actually one of four San Diego home runs last night, the problem was they were all solo shots!  Miami's starter for tonight, Tom Koehler, hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball this season, however, he does have a 1.530 WHIP over 12 starts. The Marlins have lost eight of those, including six of the last eight.  10* San Diego

8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET):  The Dodgers lost yday, 3-2, to the Diamondbacks. Me personally, I was on the Under, so I was a winner. Of course, Arizona's win came w/ former Dodger Zack Greinke on the hill. He obviously won't be available the rest of the series, so LA is back to its customary role of favorite and I'm calling for them to reassert themselves. Arizona has hardly been dominant at home this year as their record at Chase Field is only 13-23. Like last night's play on San Francisco over Milwaukee, I keep coming back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. We've got one team from each group here and I think things will play out accordingly.

Starting Tuesday for Dodger Blue will be Kenta Maeda, who in 12 starts has a 2.70 ERA and 1.057 WHIP. So you'd expect him to have a better team start record than 6-6. But that's what the TSR is. However, on the road, he's unbeaten in five tries (4-1 TSR) w/ an even better 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP. It was the definition of a hard-luck loss his last time out, at home, against the Rockies. The Dodgers lost that game, 1-0, with Maeda allowing just the run on five hits over 6 2/3 IP. He also had nine strikeouts.  His last road start, he tossed five scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Mets and won as a +130 underdog. In eight of his 12 starts this year, Maeda has allowed 2 ER or fewer.

Not only is Arizona just 13-23 at Chase Field, they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game. Tonight's starter Archie Bradley certainly didn't fare too well at home his last time out, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings as the team lost 6-3 to Tampa Bay.  It was the second straight time that the team lost w/ Bradley on the hill.  As a team, Arizona is -30 in run differential, so being eight games under .500 is probably deserved.  As for Los Angeles, they have a run differential of +35, so they certainly deserve to be better than just a game over .500.  Each of their last five games have been decided by one run w/ them going only 1-4. That's just plain bad luck. They are 30-12 though vs. Arizona since the start of the 2014 season. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a big series in the American League East with the two teams tied a top the division at 36-26 playing three in a row here at Fenway Park. But while the records may be the same, the respective run differentials are anything but w/ the Red Sox holding a massive advantage in that department (+85 vs. +27). Baltimore may have won four of the seven head to head meetings so far this season, but they arrive in Boston in poor form having just dropped three in a row to another division foe, Toronto, on the road. Away from home, the Orioles are only 12-15 (fewest road games played in all of MLB) and in tonight's series opener, the hosts look to have a pretty big edge in starting pitching.

David Price's tenure w/ the Red Sox got off to a bit of a rocky start, but he's gotten on track lately w/ six consecutive quality starts. Last time out, he was a real hard luck loser as he gave up just two runs and three hits in eight innings.  The same was actually true his last start here at Fenway as he allowed three runs and six hits in seven innings w/ the team ultimately came up short on the scoreboard. But pay no mind to the win-loss record as Price is in fine form right now. He's allowed only 13 runs in his last 42 1/3 innings of work. He is also 8-4 lifetime vs. Baltimore w/ a 2.90 ERA.

Now, Baltimore's Chris Tillman hasn't lost since 4.14 and is coming off a strong outing his last time out as well.  But despite a 3-0 record, he has a 4.26 ERA and 1.316 WHIP. He'd allowed a total of nine runs his two starts previous to the last one. Yet the offense bailed him out both times. That's pretty much the opposite of Price's luck. Looking at the respective offenses here, the one more likely to come through is clearly the home team as the Red Sox lead all of MLB in scoring (6.0 runs per game!) by a wide margin.  Opposing hitters are batting .290 off Baltimore pitching the L7 games.  8* Boston

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): It's back to the "chasm" I keep harping on this season in handicapping the National League as there is a giant one separating the contenders and non-contenders. That's certainly enough for me to overlook the fact the Giants had to play last night, especially w/ them available at the current price, at home no less. Despite being off B2B wins, Milwaukee shouldn't scare anyone as they've still been outscored by 38 runs over the course of the year. Both starters here have shown tremendous improvement over their last three starts, but I don't think we should be "buying" on the Brew Crew's Chase Anderson as he's faced three bad teams in a row. Again, this is a really great price on the home team.

Matt Cain goes for the Giants here and he's coming off a 17-day layoff due to a strained right hamstring. The team lost both times his turn in the rotation came up and he wasn't able to go. The strained hamstring came at a time when Cain really seemed to be finding his groove. He'd previously beaten the Cubs (as a +155 dog) by allowing just one run in six innings. That came after allowing one run in seven innings at Arizona and two in eight innings vs. Toronto. His career marks against Milwaukee are surprisingly poor, but this Brewers lineup is not one to be really feared, particularly on the road where they are batting a collective .231. The Brew Crew are being outscored by a full run per game outside of Miller Park this season.

The Giants are off a big win Sunday night, 2-1 over the rival Dodgers, as they won that series and thus increased their lead in the NL West in the process. I mentioned earlier that the pitcher they'll face here, Chase Anderson, has faced nothing but bad teams his L3 starts. Those opponents were Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Oakland, who have been outscored by a combined 226 runs this year and are all in the bottom five in all of baseball in terms of run differential. So this will be a big step up in class for Anderson and one that I'm pretty sure he won't be able to handle as his ERA in three career starts vs. the Giants is a really poor 8.53.  8* San Francisco

8* Under Dodgers/D'backs (9:40 ET): With Zack Greinke on the hill here, Arizona checks in as a rather sizable favorite against his former team, the Dodgers. This price just doesn't seem "right" though, considering the overall state of the two ballclubs, even though the Dodgers might seem to be at a slight disadvantage coming off the Sunday Night Game. So, forget about the side. However, the total offers a good opportunity as Los Angeles scored only one run last night and the Under is 7-2 their last nine games overall. During that time, they've scored more than four runs in a game just once and the only other Over was a fluky byproduct of extra innings. As for the D'backs, they are off a shutout win Sunday, 6-0 over Miami. Take the Under.

Greinke got off to a bit of a rough start for his new team, but has certainly turned things around as of late. In his last three starts, he has a posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.727 WHIP. The team has won all three games. Obviously, Greinke knows the lineup he'll be facing here. He did not face the Dodgers in the only prior series these teams played this year, but note that all three games in that series did go Under. The Under has easily cashed in each of Greinke's last two starts as he hasn't allowed a single run in 16 IP, including going the distance last Tuesday vs. Tampa Bay here at home.  In his previous start to that one, he struck out 11 Astros in a dominant seven inning performance. The Dodgers are hitting just .205 the L7 games.

Mike Bolsinger certainly hasn't gotten much run support in either of his last two starts w/ the Dodgers scoring only one run in both games. Of course, it didn't matter much his last time out because he surrendered six runs to Colorado in 5 1/3 IP. That was his worst outing of 2016, however, thus I'd expect him to bounce back a bit here.  Though not exactly known for going deep into games, Bolsinger had previously not allowed more than 3 ER in any start all season and five of his last seven starts (going back to last year) have seen the Under cash.  8* Under Dodgers/D'backs

9* Cleveland (8:15 ET): Kansas City has revenge here, for a four-game sweep they suffered in Cleveland last weekend. Overall, they are just 1-6 vs. the Indians this year. Normally, I might be inclined to back the revenge angle, but not here as the Royals are not as good as their record (mediocre as it may be) might indicate. Their -21 run differential is just 4th in their own division & only three teams in the entire American League are worse. Meanwhile, Cleveland has surged to the top of the AL Central by virtue of winning 9 of their last 12 games overall. They downed the Angels yday, 8-3, & their own run differential (+47) is third best in the AL. Tonight's pitching matchup also seems heavily tilted in their favor.

In his second start back following a month long stint on the DL, Carlos Carrasco allowed four runs at Seattle in his last time out and the team lost 5-0 to the Mariners. However, Carrasco's WHIP in three road starts remains a fantastic 0.692.  Kansas City's offense woke up a little bit against the White Sox over the weekend, averaging 4.0 rpg in the three-game set. But, this is a team that has still scored only 20 runs total over its L10 games. That obviously won't get it done, especially with the starting rotation lacking dominant arms. In Cleveland last weekend, they were held to six runs total in four games, three times scoring one run or less. Carrasco came out on the winning end of the closest game, which was the opener, a 5-4 Tribe win.

The Royals counter Carrasco w/ Edinson Volquez, who has allowed four or more runs in five of his last five starts. That includes giving up five to Cleveland on June 3rd. Over his last three starts, Volquez has a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP.  The team was shut out in his last start, losing 4-0 to Baltimore as Volquez was responsible for all four runs in just 4 2/3 innings.  When he faced Cleveland back in May, he again allowed five runs, this time in only 4 1/3 IP. That makes it three straight losses to the Indians overall as last September saw him get beat 6-0 here in his home park. Cleveland averaged over 6.0 rpg this year, outscoring them 44-11. 9* Cleveland

10* Texas (4:10 ET):  The Rangers dealt the Mariners a stinging loss on Saturday as they tied the game 1-1 in the top of the ninth and then won it in the 11th. With Cole Hamels on the bump Sunday, they are poised to take the series. Hamels has not lost on the road this year, going 3-0 in five starts w/ a 2.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. He faced Seattle very early in the year and outdueled Felix Hernandez for a 3-2 win, going seven innings and allowing only four hits. The M's are forced to counter w/ Wade Miley, who has an 8.75 ERA in his two starts vs. the Rangers this season. Yes, my free play was on Seattle yday and they have the better run differential for the year. But Hamels nullifies those factors.

Though he hasn't won since May 22nd, there's been only two times in 12 starts this year that Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. The team is 8-4 w/ him on the mound. Last time out, he held Houston to just two runs and four hits over 7 IP in what ended up being a 4-3 win.  I'm not really concerned w/ the number of walks and home runs allowed by Hamels in his last five starts as four of them still ended up being quality and his career numbers would seem to indicate that the number of walks and home runs will soon start to decrease again.  Seattle is averaging just 3.7 runs per game over its last seven contests while batting a collective .229.

Meanwhile, the Mariners' Miley has not been effective for the most part in 2016.  He has turned in some rather "random" quality efforts, such as his last time out when he held Cleveland scoreless for seven innings and gave up only four hits.  But his start before that, he gave up nine runs and 12 hits at San Diego and has a 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Miley is simply too inconsistent to trust and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Hamels.  Another factor to consider is that Seattle has a losing home record this year (15-17).  10* Texas

10* Houston (1:10 ET): These have been two of the more disappointing teams in the American League so far. Emblematic of the struggles of the Astros has been the plight of their ace Dallas Keuchel, who is actually second from the bottom in net units among all MLB starters this year at -9.2 units (4-9 team start record). Only Minnesota's Ervin Santana (-9.7) is slightly worse. But I fully anticipate Keuchel turning his season around and all things considered this is a very cheap price on the team that won yday. Houston has actually turned things around somewhat w/ wins in 13 of their last 19 games overall. Make it 14 out of 20 after today.

Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner by the way, has shown some signs of his 2015 form lately. He's posted a 0.984 WHIP his L3 starts and a real key is that he's walked only one batter during that time. Meanwhile, he has 19 strikeouts and except for four home runs, there's really been nothing to "complain" about here.  The two-run shot he allowed in the eighth inning vs. Texas is what lost the team the game Tuesday. But other than that, he pitched well. He matched a season-high w/ eight strikeouts and 73 of his 115 pitches went for strikes. I give Keuchel a big edge over his lefty counterpart Matt Moore, who has allowed a HR in five straight starts and has a 5.78 ERA and 1.553 WHIP his last three. Only once in his last nine starts has Moore allowed fewer than 3 ER.

If the respective bullpens come into play this afternoon, and you have to figure they will, that's another big advantage for the Astros. Early in the year, their relievers showed major regression from last year's improvement, but since May 1st no bullpen has been better. Over the L23 games, this group has posted an ERA under 2.00. Now that the Ken Giles disaster seems to be behind them, Will Harris has emerged as the new closer thanks to a 0.63 ERA and 30 strikeouts.  Tampa Bay's bullpen, which has been overworked all season, has issues and Kevin Cash simply doesn't have a lot of options right now. That was apparent when he had to turn to Dana Eveland and his 6.75 ERA in the ninth inning Saturday. The Rays are batting a collective .219 at home this season. 10* Houston

10* Under Dodgers/Giants (7:15 ET): Last night's game stayed Under despite a 5.5 run total. We won't have either Clayton Kershaw or Johnny Cueto on the bump Saturday night, but we do have a higher number and that's just fine because the Dodgers' Scott Kazmir has looked great of late, Giants' starter Jeff Samardzija is due to bounce back and neither offense has done much of anything lately. Over the L7 games, Los Angeles is batting a paltry .189 and were it not for a 12-run effort against lowly Atlanta, things would look even worse. They've actually been held to four runs or less in eight of their last nine ball games. As for the Giants, they are batting only .192 the L7 games. They've scored just 10 times in the L4 games. Take the Under, a bet which has cashed in 8 of the Dodgers' previous 10 games.

Kazmir has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts w/ a 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. Don't be fooled by that 5.13 road ERA as his WHIP is 1.080.  His last time pitching on the road, all he did was outduel the Cubs' Jake Arrieta by tossing six scoreless innings of one-hit ball at Wrigley! Not only does Kazmir have 24 strikeouts in his L3 starts (in only 17 IP), he hasn't given up a home run. A couple of subpar outings early in the year vs. San Francisco is not enough to dissuade me from thinking Kazmir will pitch well here. 

As for Samardzija, he's off B2B rough showings (both on the road), but he should bounce back here now that he's pitching back at home. Consider that in four home starts, his ERA is 2.93. Also, he'd allowed a total of only six runs in his five starts prior, a span where he pitched 38 innings.  He was just fine against the Dodgers earlier this year in Chavez Ravine, holding them to only three runs in six innigs.  With the Giants favored tonight, there's a reasonable expectation that they may not have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth and that's always advantageous when betting the Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Giants

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The Royals are in a lot of trouble right now. Not only have they lost eight straight games, but run differential says they are just the fourth best team in their own division. I went against them last night as Chris Sale got the White Sox back on track. Despite hitting three home runs yday, Kansas City's offense remains a concern as they came into this series having scored 1 or 0 runs in six consecutive games. The White Sox were experiencing their own set of issues (had dropped 20 of 26 at one point), but they're now off B2B wins and I think this series is theirs for the taking.

Speaking of lack of runs scored, the amount of support that Chicago starter Jose Quintana has received this year has been very shameful. The most runs the team has scored in any Quintana start this year is five. However, on the flip side, he's also allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of those starts. As a result, his L11 starts have all stayed Under the total. Even though he's off an outing where he allowed a season-high five runs, I think there should be a reasonable expectation for him to bounce back. As I said earlier, the Royals offense has really been struggling of late and that includes striking out 11 times yday. They struck out 12 times the game before that. That plays right into the hands of Quintana, who has 71 K's in 76 2/3 IP this season.

Kansas City made an overnight pitching change here as it will be Danny Duffy instead of Chris Young. The always mercurial Ned Yost is claiming it's to keep all of his starters on five days rest, but to me it's a desperate act by a desperate manager. Duffy does have an excellent WHIP (0.960), but it's still a relatively small sample size (five starts). He's allowed a total of five home runs his L3 outings. Something I talked about in yday's analysis is the fact the Royals have been just terrible on the road this year (now 11-23) and that now includes an 0-3 mark as an underdog of +150 to +175.  This team has scored a total of 13 runs during its eight-game losing streak and five of those came last night.  The White Sox might not return to the level they were playing at in April, but they are a better ballclub than what they've show over the last month. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Washington (12:05 ET): I feel that this is a tremendous value on the Nats at home, not just because they dominated this same opponent yday (won 9-6), but also because I have such little regard for the Phillies in general. The underdog here has somehow been able to hover around .500 for most of this season (currently three games below), but that record is clearly undeserved judging by a -60 run differential that is bottom five in all of baseball. Lately though, Philly has really hit the skids (lost 11 of 14) and while the road team is 8-2 in head to head meetings this season, I would not be the least bit surprised if Washington swept their division rival right out of town this weekend.

We won't have Stephen Strasburg (now 10-0) on the hill Saturday, but Tanner Roark should suffice. Roark has a 2.68 ERA here at home this year and it was only two starts ago that he held the Phillies to two runs and four hits over seven innings. The Nats won that game by a score of 4-3. Perhaps part of the reason we are able to get the team at such a relatively cheap price here is the fact Roark is off a bit of a rough start Sunday in Cincinnati. But I'm counting on him bouncing back here as Philadelphia has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball and actually had only six hits in yday's game. As for that price range, Washington is 6-2 this year as a home favorite of -150 to -175 on the money line.

You really can't complain too much about Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who comes in unbeaten on the road w/ a 2.02 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. But, there's a first time for everything and today is when Mr. Nola should suffer his first defeat away from home.  This will actually be the FOURTH time this season that Nola has faced the Nationals. So, lack of familiarity is now no longer an option. I'm not sure it ever was quite frankly as the first time they faced him, they tagged him for seven runs. Overall, the Phillies have lost two of Nola's three starts against the Nats. Given where Washington ranks in run differential (3rd best in MLB!), today's line simply does not properly reflect what a mismatch this truly is.  8* Washington

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Already, this is the fourth series played between these teams this season. Every time, San Diego has taken two of three. But I believe this go around could go a lot better for the Rockies, who come in off B2B wins, including 11-5 over the Mets in a make-up game yday. For tonight's series opener, there's already been a big line move in their favor.  Though the Padres have won four of six overall, all of those of games took place at home and the last series was against lowly Atlanta. On the road, SD is just 10-18 this season. In terms of YTD run differential, Colorado looks like the much better team here as they are only -8 while San Diego is -47. 

Jon Gray will pitch here for the home side and he's looked pretty sharp of late. The team has won each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, including a 10-3 victory at San Diego his last time out. While he certainly got plenty of run support there, Gray also turned in - by far- his sharpest performance of 2016 w/ 12 K's as he allowed just 2 ER over seven innings.  It was his third straight start allowing just five hits and he walked only one batter, giving him a 1.082 WHIP over that timespan. Throughout his career, Gray has had the Padres' number as he has 1.96 ERA in four starts w/ a 34-4 KW ratio. 

The Padres will go w/ Andrew Cashner in this one and he's yet to win on the road in four tries this year. His ERA and WHIP, respectively, are 5.40 ERA and 1.550 in those four outings. It's highly unlikely that those numbers go down here after pitching at Coors Field.  Despite having a losing record at home so far, the Rockies average 5.9 rpg and are batting a collective .297.  8* Colorado

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Things certainly did not go well for the White Sox when they last met the Royals (Memorial Day Weekend) as they were swept in a three-game series. In fact, they're now just 1-5 vs. their division rival this season and in the midst of a real "downward spiral" overall as they've quickly gone from first place in the AL Central (were 24-12) to a .500 team through 60 games (that's a 6-18 record L24 games, if you're keeping score at home). The slide has even affected the team's ace, Chris Sale, who has lost three straight after a 9-0 start to the campaign. But, since sweeping the White Sox, the Royals happen to have gone down the tubes themselves as they've been swept by both Cleveland and Baltimore in the last two series (seven straight losses). I think this is a great spot for Sale and company to get back on track. 

Sale has only one bad start on his resume, that coming against Cleveland on May 24th, his first loss of the year. The bullpen betrayed him his next time out (that was against KC!) and then while he did allow 4 ER to Detroit the last time we saw him, that was another time the bullpen couldn't get the job done. Let's remember here that Sale has still allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts overall.  That includes the outing in Kansas City and what makes this rematch so attractive is that the Royals offense has been downright pathetic of late. They are averaging only 1.1 rpg during the seven game slide (batting a collective .214).  They've scored 1 or 0 runs in each of their last six ballgames.

The reigning World Series champs will counter Sale w/ Ian Kennedy, but that shouldn't scare anyone.  Kennedy allowed five runs last Saturday in Cleveland as the team took a 7-1 loss. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Royals may be one-half game up on Chicago in the standings, their YTD run differential is actually much worse (-24) and that's due in large part to a terrible 11-22 road record, which is second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). By the way, Chicago did win yday (as an underdog), 3-1 over Washington.  They are 18-12 off a win this season. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): St. Louis has been kind to me each of the last two days as I was on them for both wins over Cincinnati, but it's a step up in class here and one they have certainly struggled w/ this year as the Pirates have taken five of the six head to head meetings. That includes a three-game sweep here at PNC Park to start the year. While the recent schedule isn't too favorable here to the home team, which had to fly out to Colorado to play a make up game yday, the result of that game (as bad as it may look) might be. The Bucs won the only time this year they allowed 10+ runs the previous game & they are 8-2 in this spot since the start of the 2014 season. I also like the pitching matchup here for the Bucs.

Gerrit Cole gets the nod here for Pittsburgh and he's posted a 2.91 ERA in 11 career starts vs. St. Louis. That includes him allowing just two runs over six innings in a 10-5 win back on May 8th at Busch Stadium, which begat a six-start stretch of allowing 3 ER or less every time out. In fact, he's allowed more than 3 ER in only one start all season. Cole doesn't allow many home runs (just three all year) either.  He didn't travel w/ the team yday, so that he could be ready here. Though his K/9 rate is at a career-low right now, sometimes that can be overplayed. His ERA is 2.85 and while he didn't factor into the decision his last time out, he looked as good as ever (67 strikes vs. 35 balls).  I'm expecting him to pitch well here.

When Cole beat the Cards back on 5.8, Michael Wacha was the loser. It has not been a particularly great season for Wacha thus far as he hasn't won a game since April 23rd. Things have only gotten worse over his L3 outings as he has posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP.  Three times in his last five starts, Wacha has allowed six or more runs while failing to make it past the fourth innings. Against Pittsburgh, he allowed four runs in six innings.  Though the team did win his last time out, 7-4 over San Francisco, Wacha was responsible for all four runs surrendered. Also, in his previous five starts, opponents wound up scoring 10, 12, 7, 8 and 10 runs respectively. Not good. Pirates take the series opener. 8* Pittsburgh

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET):  As I called for, the Cardinals bounced back yday w/ a pretty convincing 12-7 victory over the Reds. While they may have dropped Tuesday's series opener, the Redbirds have really owned this NL Central rivalry through the years, taking 28 of the past 43 meetings and 14 of the past 21 series including seven of 10 here at Great American Ballpark. In yday's analysis, I outlined how St. Louis has underachieved this year in terms of their run differential (+58), which is indicative of a 35-win team (actual record is 31-28). That run differential is actually tied for fourth best in all of MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds are every bit as bad as their 22-37 record shows as they've been outscored by 95 runs this year, the second worst differential in all of baseball. I have the Cards beating them in today's series finale.

When it comes to St. Louis' ability to score runs in this game, one must not only consider the starter they face (Brandon Finnegan), but also just how wretched this Reds' bullpen is.  After yday, Reds' relievers now have a 6.73 ERA and 1.700 WHIP for the year. They've allowed five or more runs in each of the last three games. Finnegan, who has a 3-9 team start record overall, has actually pitched worse at home where his ERA and WHIP are 4.64 and 1.364 WHIP respectively. Of course, the Cardinals don't have much issue scoring runs; they have scored 325 times this year, the most among National League teams.

Adam Wainwright may have an 8-4 team start record, but he hasn't necessarily pitched as well as we've come to expect from him. But in his last three starts, he's done a better job at keeping runners off base (1.10 WHIP) and is off four straight quality starts. He can expect plenty of run support here (see above), so as long as he's not as bad as he was the first time he faced the Reds this year, the team is in good shape. Including allowing a season-high seven runs to Cincy back on April 16th, I'm a little surprised how poor his career marks vs. them are. But the improvement he's shown lately coupled with the likely run support (I haven't even mentioned how Cards hit .271 off lefties!) has me going "all in" on the road team. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (7:05 ET):  I constantly harp on the idea of "buying low" and "selling high." Well, this series opener is a chance to do the latter as the Orioles' "stock" is sky high right now coming off a dominating sweep of the Royals, whom they outscored 17-2 over the course of three games. They've now won seven of their last eight overall and currently lead the AL East w/ a 35-23 record.  But it needs to be noted that this club has played a MLB-low 23 times on the road this year and is just 11-12 in those games. This series in Toronto, winners of six of nine themselves, is a big one for the home team and I like them to win Thursday behind Marcus Stroman.

Stroman may be off B2B ugly outings against Boston and has not pitched well in three of his last four starts overall.  But he got the win over Baltimore earlier this year by allowing just three runs in 7 IP and that was the team's only win in a 3-game set in Camden Yards.  Stroman also was on the winning end of a 15-2 final at Baltimore last September when he allowed only one run and five hits in 8 IP.  It would be a nice break here if he didn't have to face Manny Machado, who should be suspended any day now for his role in the brawl w/ the Royals earlier in the week.  The Orioles' offense has been held to four runs or fewer in three of their past four wins, so it's not like they're hitting the cover off the ball right now.

What that means then is Baltimore has been getting tremendous pitching of late. I don't think that will be the case here tonight w/ Tyler Wilson on the mound. The last time Wilson started was the last time the O's lost, 8-6 at the Yankee Stadium, as Wilson allowed five runs in just four innings.  The team has now lost each of his L4 starts.  Toronto broke out for seven runs in yday's win and let's not discount the slight advantage they get coming off day game while Baltimore didn't arrive here North of the Border until much later.  This is a really big series for the Blue Jays and a good time to fade the Orioles. 8* Toronto

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): I was obviously left quite disappointed last night when the Cardinals lost to the Reds, 7-6. Especially since they rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to tie the game in the top of the ninth.  A Joey Votto walk-off gave the home team the win, but I'm willing to bet that today's starter (Alfredo Simon) won't give them the kind of start John Lamb did yday. Of course, yday's game also reinforced just how bad this Cincinnati bullpen is. It was the second straight game that they blew a five-run lead. Overall, the Reds are just an awful team, having been outscored by a whopping 90 runs this season (2nd worst differential in baseball). As I said in yday's analysis, St. Louis has greatly underachieved so far this season given their own run differential is +53 (tied for 4th best in MLB).

Simon has been really bad for Cincy w/ an 8.55 ERA and 1.877 WHIP in his 11 starts. All things considered, he actually wasn't that terrible in Colorado last week as he allowed "only" four runs in seven innings. Of course, it really didn't matter as his offense ended up scoring 11 times.  Still, Simon is averaging less than five runs per start this year and made it only one inning when he faced St. Louis back in April. He gave up four runs, including two home runs, in that one inning.  Despite yday's win, the Reds remain 15-27 their last 42 games vs. the Cardinals. 

Cards starter Jaime Garcia has a strong track record vs. the Reds. He's gone 10-4 w/ a 3.50 ERA in 19 career appearances (17 starts) against them.  The last time he faced them was September of last season and he gave up just one run in seven innings.  Traditionally, St. Louis has been a really good bounce back team as they are 102-64 off a loss since the start of the 2014 season.   8* St. Louis

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET):  Quite frankly, I'm not that high on either of these two for 2016, but the Yankees have clearly proven themselves to the better ballclub, at least in this series, by winning both games so far. I like them again tonight as they'll face Jered Weaver, who certainly has had his fair share of issues pitching on the road in the past.  On the flip side, Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 6-0 record and 3.35 ERA his L8 starts overall.  The Angels simply haven't done much at the plate in this series and they've dropped seven in a row here at Yankee Stadium.  Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are a combined 2 for 13 the L2 games and the team has only 11 hits. In 10 of the last 12 meetings w/ the Yankees, the Halos have finished with six or fewer hits.

Weaver has a 5.22 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in five road starts this season. You may recall that he finished w/ the highest road ERA in all of baseball in 2015.  Those struggles away from home clearly extend here into Yankee Stadium where his ERA is 8.71 in five career starts. Overall, he has a 5.83 ERA vs. the team in Pinstripes. While he did pitch surprisingly well his last time out, allowing just two runs over six innings at Pittsburgh, Weaver had previously allowed 17 runs in his L4 starts.  He did give up two home runs against the Pirates. 

Eovaldi did allow five runs his last time out, but still ended up with somewhat of a "raw deal" as he was in line for a win when he exited the game. But the bullpen couldn't hold a 5-2 lead against Baltimore.  Note that in his three starts previous to that, Eovaldi had allowed only two runs and nine hits over 18 IP.  Curiously, the Angels are just 5-16 this year vs. teams that have a losing record.  This price range has actually been quite friendly to the Yanks, who are 5-1 this year as home favorites of -150 to -175 on the money line. 8* NY Yankees

6* Chi Cubs (1:05 ET):  I never fell for Philadelphia's surprisingly decent start as their run differential indicated they were quite fortunate to be winning so many ballgames. They've fallen off quite a bit over the couple weeks, dropping 13 of 18 overall, but still somehow are just one game below .500 despite a horrible run differential of -50, which is 5th worst in all of baseball. They obviously beat the Cubs yday, 3-2, improving their record in one-run games to a MLB-best 15-5.  That is what is keeping them afloat.  But speaking of run differential, the Cubs remain at a historic pace having outscored their opponents by 142 runs in 57 games so far. This series obviously still shapes up as a complete mismatch to me and because they're the road team, we're able to get a pretty decent value on the best team in baseball.  Look for them to take the series.

If you take away the one-run games, the Phillies are just 14-25 and have been outscored by 60 runs!  This is not a good team, folks. It's actually quite frustrating to me that they have the record that they do.  Fortunately though, the Cubs are 12-3 off a loss this year. We also have a matchup of two pitchers headed in very opposite directions. The Cubs' John Lackey has a 1.83 ERA since May 1st and has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four of his past five starts. He threw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, five-hit ball his last time out as the team beat Arizona 6-0.  Two starts ago, Lackey beat Philadelphia, allowing only one run and four hits in seven innings. The pitcher that faced him there was Vincent Velasquez, who will be the opposition yet again tonight. As alluded to earlier, Velasquez is struggling right now w/ a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts, including 8.31 his last three (2.231 WHIP). Against Lackey & the Cubs, he allowed seven runs in only 4 2/3 innings and then he lasted only 4 1/3 innings his last time out, despite throwing 100 pitches.  This shapes up as a total mismatch.  6* Chi Cubs

10* Under Red Sox/Giants (10:15 ET):  San Francisco pitching has been simply outstanding of late. While they did give up 13 runs in B2B losses to St. Louis over the weekend, this is a team that has given up four runs or less 23 times since May 6th!  Their staff will be put to the test here by a Red Sox lineup which leads all of MLB in runs scored, but thankfully this game is being contested in a NL park, so they don't have to worry about a designated hitter. The Reds Sox averaged just 4.0 rpg in its last series (at Toronto) and finished two of the three games with six or fewer hits.  Injuries have hurt both teams' lineups recently.  Take the Under.

Both teams' aces go tomorrow, but here we have a better number to work with.  Note that over their last seven games, the Giants are averaging 4.1 rpg, but batting only .202.  At the same time, they are allowing just 3.4 rpg w/ opponents hitting .204. This is a team that typically scores more on the road. Their lineup takes a significant hit w/ both Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence now out of the lineup.  That has to be a relief for Boston starter Rick Porcello, who is looking to bounce back from a rough outing in Baltimore last week. But despite a relatively high 5.40 ERA, Porcello has a 1.091 WHIP, which tells me he's simply been unlucky in terms of the number of baserunners he's allowing, actually scoring.  He hasn't allowed more than eight hits in any start all season.

Albert Suarez is only starting for the Giants due to the Matt Cain injury and while its a bit concerning he allowed three runs to Atlanta (in 5 innings), note those came on only three hits (did walk two batters).  I look for him to pitch better here.  The Red Sox are without two outfields of their own - Brock Holt and Blake Swihart - and their replacement, Chris Young, is just a .224 lifetime hitter here at AT&T Park (from his days w/ the D'backs).  The Giants' options at replacing Pence and Pagan are no more appetizing, thus w/ two depleted lineups, a low scoring game is to be expected here, especially since one is at a disadvantage by being in a foreign park.  I also think its pretty amazing that Boston has given up 6.1 rpg its last seven contests despite opponents hitting only .226.  10* Under Red Sox/Giants

8* Arizona (9:40 ET):  Throughout his career, Zack Greinke has been a dominant pitcher at home. However, the transition from Dodger Stadium to Chase Field in Arizona has been a difficult one.  Through seven starts in his new home ballpark, he has a 6.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  But I have to believe we'll start to see him pitch better here moving forward. He comes off a dominant outing in Houston where he threw seven scoreless innings of four hit ball w/ 11 K's and no walks.  Now he faces a Tampa Bay lineup that is among the lowest scoring in all of MLB and that's when they (mostly) have a designated hitter in the lineup. I'll call for the Rays win streak to end at four.

Last night saw the road team prevail 6-4 and despite my earlier comment about them being among the lowest scoring teams in all of MLB, they have scored six runs or more in every game during the win streak. But that still places them only 20th in MLB in runs scored for the year and I expect regression to start to take place. This is a classic "sell high" opportunity on TB, who had lost five in a row prior to the current win streak.  Three of these four wins came in a sweep of lowly Minnesota, remember. Injuries continue to hurt this team in a variety of ways.  Arizona's 9-21 home record befuddles me as there's no way the team or Greinke should be this bad at Chase Field. Remember the D'backs just beat Jake Arrieta and the Cubs at Wrigley Field Sunday.

Matt Moore has not pitched very well for the Rays this season as he has a 5.46 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 starts. Things have only gotten worse of late w/ his ERA and WHIP being 6.48 and 1.920 his L3 starts overall.  Greinke, meanwhile, has gone 4-0 his last four starts overall w/ a 2.57 ERA and 27-2 KW ratio.  His best home start of the year came against an American League opponent, back on May 17th, as he held the Yankees to only three runs and five hits in seven innings.  Again, I typically feel that AL teams are always at a disadvantage in NL parks because of the loss of the DH.  Look for Greinke to slow down the Rays in this one. 8* Arizona

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET):  I keep going back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. Coming into the year, there were exactly seven teams considered to be contenders in the Senior Circuit (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers).  Not surprisingly, those are the seven teams we currently find have positive run differentials at this point of the season. Most of the rest of the field are some real bottom-feeders and you can put the Reds at the bottom of that group. Cincy has a -91 run differential, second worst in all of baseball, ahead of only Atlanta. After recent series against the likes of the Giants, Nats and Cubs, this should be an easy series for the Redbirds, even on the road. I really like them in tonight's series opener.

St. Louis has certainly played better than it's 30-27 record would seem to indicate.  They are +54 in run differential, which is tied for third best in all of baseball, behind the Cubs and Red Sox. So there are only four potential matchups in all of MLB (Cubs-Braves, Cubs-Reds, Red Sox-Braves, Red Sox-Reds) that are more lopsided on paper than this one.  While the Reds actually did win four in a row prior to a loss Sunday, they are just 14-27 vs. St. Louis since the start of the 2014 season. It should also be pointed out that the Reds are a really bad 9-29 in night games so far this season.

While Cardinals starting pitching has mostly regressed from last year, Mike Leake has been the pleasant surprise of the rotation. He's turned in five straight quality starts (1.59 ERA), giving up 2 ER or less every time out.  For the season, he has a 42-14 KW ratio in 11 starts.  I give him a big edge tonight over John Lamb, who has a 5.58 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in six starts. Coming off his strongest outing of the season to date (at Colorado!), I expect him to regress in this spot. Consider that the team lost each of his first five starts. The Cardinals are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road and are baseball's second highest scoring team overall.  The Reds have - by far - given up the most runs in all of baseball.  8* St. Louis

10* Cleveland (10:10 ET):  Having won five straight, the Indians are currently the hottest team in all of baseball.  They just got done completely dominating the World Series Champion Royals, outscoring them 20-2 over the course of the last three games and taking over first place in the American League Central in the process. Normally, I might advise to "sell high" on the Tribe in this instance, but tonight is not a good time to be playing the Mariners, who ended up on the wrong end of a sweep themselves over the weekend, dropping all three games at Texas. Seattle has been really disappointing here at home w/ a 12-14 record at Safeco Field. I look for Cleveland to stay hot.

The Mariners' offense has been surprisingly strong thus far, but cooled off considerably over the weekend. Sunday saw them get held to just three hits.  Now they are set to face one of the top pitching staffs in all of baseball, starting w/ Trevor Bauer on Monday. While winless over his L5 starts, Bauer has turned in a quality outing four times during that stretch.  He was a bit unlucky to give up three runs on just four hits against Texas on Wednesday, though the team still ultimately prevailed by a score of 5-4.  Bauer did not face Seattle when the two teams faced off in a three-get set in Cleveland earlier this year.  I'd say he's "due" for a win. 

Seattle pitching has not been good of late w/ an 8.56 ERA the L5 games and opponents are batting .376.  Cleveland comes in averaging 6.0 rpg during its win streak while batting a collective .294.  It will be James Paxton going for the home team tonight and his first start of 2016 was a disaster as he was responsible for giving up eight runs in just 3 2/3 IP Wednesday vs. San Diego. Keep in mind that was at an NL park (meaning he gets to face the pitcher) and one of the weakest hitting lineups in all of baseball.  The Indians lineup presents a far greater challenge to Paxton and I simply like the road team a lot more in tonight's series opener.  10* Cleveland

10* Under Rockies/Dodgers (10:10 ET):  With the home team being a sizable favorite in this one, it's likely that they won't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth and that's just one of many reasons why I like the Under in tonight's series opener between the Rockies and Dodgers. From the Colorado perspective, they'll be sending - by far - their best pitcher to the hill, that being Tyler Chatwood (2.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), so that helps as well. Both offenses had no problem scoring Sunday (combined for 22 runs), but I anticipate a low-scoring game in this one.

Take the Rockies' pitching staff out of Coors Field and surprisingly, they're not half-bad!   In terms of ERA, the staff jumps from a 29th place ranking overall to 11th when factoring in only away games. Nowhere is the effect more dramatic than it is with Chatwood, who has a fantastic 0.53 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in five road starts, all resulting in victories for the team. The Under is 9-2 in Chatwood's 11 starts overall and catching him off one of his few subpar showings of 2016, I think is a good thing.  He should bounce back from a disappointing effort vs. Cincinnati, where he allowed five runs, considering there have been six times this year that the righty has allowed 1 or 0 ER.

The Dodgers counter w/ Mike Bolsinger, who has a 0.705 WHIP at home. Granted, he's pitched at Dodger Stadium just one time, but he allowed just three hits in 5 2/3 IP.  He also threw six scoreless innings here against the Rockies last season.  Save for yday, Dodgers games have been relatively low-scoring of late. Six of seven had stayed Under prior to Sunday as they are actually still hitting below .200 as a team the L7 days while opponents are averaging just 2.7 rpg during that same timespan. Of course, the Rockies' offensive numbers dip big time outside of Coors Field as they average about a full run less per game.  This one has all the factors that I look for in an Under play. 10* Under Rockies/Dodgers

8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis (8:05 ET):  Please note that this is a 1st 5 Innings play only, meaning that we only need the Cardinals to be ahead after the fifth. A play such is this is obviously heavily based on starting pitching and looking over this series as a whole, this is the one starting pitching matchup slanted in favor of the home team. St. Louis sends Carlos Martinez to the bump and while he's struggled at times this year, he is coming off perhaps his most effective outing to date. The same could possibly be said for the San Francisco's Jake Peavy, but his struggles run deeper and I see the Cards being up at the mid-way point of this game.

One must also look at whom Peavy has faced in his last two starts to see why he's improved. Against Atlanta and San Diego, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball, he looked good but he still has the highest ERA (6.34) and WHIP (1.572) on the Giants staff. Those numbers predictably get even worse on the road.  St. Louis is the National League's highest scoring team and hits righties way better than they do lefties w/ their team batting average about 30 points higher against the former.

For the Giants, the opposite is true as they hit lefties far better than they do righties. The difference is about 30 points as well.  Martinez tossed eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee on Monday and should be well rested here w/ five full days off between starts.  It's pretty shocking to see the Redbirds w/ a losing home record as they've outscored opponents here over the course of the season, plus they are outscoring opponents by nearly a full run per game in all games!  Playing the game only for the first five innings nullifies what has been - at times - a suspect St. Louis bullpen.  8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis

8* Run Line Minnesota (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Minnesota is obviously not a good team. They have - easily - the worst record (16-39) and run differential (-85) in the American League. But they did win the opening game of this series vs. Tampa Bay, 6-4, and it was a 2-2 game going into the eighth on Friday. So they've been competitive here. With the Rays sending a struggling pitcher to the mound Sunday, the Twins absolutely have a chance here and I think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss.

The struggling pitcher in question that Tampa Bay will be sending to the mound is Drew Smyly, who allowed eight runs in just four innings his last time out. That raised his ERA/WHIP to 8.82/1.776 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  All three of those starts have resulted in losses for the Rays.  The team is just 4-7 w/ him on the mound including five losses in the last seven outings. The problem here for the Rays is that they've mostly had to rely on their starting pitching this season as the offense ranks 13th (i.e. third worst) in both team batting average and runs scored. Simply put, Minnesota should have a fair number of chances to get runners across the plate in this one.

I concede that the Twins starter, Tyler Duffey, has been no better than Smyly of late. In fact, the numbers over his own last three starts are virtually identical.  But I'll call for a return to the form we saw from him in his first four starts of the year when he allowed 3 ER or fewer every time out.  Getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with if you're the home team is a pretty big deal, especially at this price. Tampa Bay (six games below .500) really isn't even close to being good enough to justify that kind of respect as they've been outscored over the course of the season and are just 2-5 their last seven games overall.  8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

8* Miami (1:10 ET): I've stated my issues w/ the Marlins in the past (-17 run differential despite winning record) and even went against them in the opener of this three-game set. Not only did they lose that game (good for me), but they fell yday as well, after blowing a lead late. But if you see the Fish favored over the Mets, that must mean that Jose Fernandez is pitching, which is a very big deal. Not only is Fernandez 22-1 in 32 all-time home starts, he's gone a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts overall, turning in a 1.38 ERA. The team has actually won his last seven starts overall. He'll be opposed here by the struggling Matt Harvey, who may have looked good his last time out, but still has a 6.00 ERA and 1.636 WHIP on the road. 

Miami had been 28-4 this season when leading or tied after seven innings. That was before yday when the bullpen allowed the Mets to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, resulting in a 6-4 final.  Of course, with Fernandez on the bump, there's a really good chance that the Marlins will be up again early in this one. Their ace has posted a 0.90 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts, including seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. the Pirates (one of the NL's top hitting teams) his last time out. He needed only 88 pitches, his fewest in any outing all year.  Over his L5 starts, Fernandez has allowed a total of just three runs and has 49 strikeouts in 34 innings!  He's had the Mets' number throughout his career as well w/ 1.67 ERA in five starts, never allowing more two runs in any one starts. Quite simply, there's a lot to like about Fernandez here.

Fernandez will also benefit from the fact that the Mets lineup is dealing with so many injuries right now that they actually had to send pitcher Jacob deGrom to the plate last night as a pinch-hitter.  Also, I'm not convinced that Harvey has "turned things around" based on one quality start, which came against an AL opponent at home.  He'd allowed 5+ ER in each of his previous three outings.  Look for Miami to avoid the sweep here as they atone for yday's tough loss. The value of Fernandez simply cannot be understated.  8* Miami

8* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET):  Save for a pair of wins earlier in the week against the Mets, it's been a real "downward spiral" of late for the White Sox, who have now lost 17 of their last 23 games overall.  Not even Chris Sale was enough to stop the bleeding yday as the team fell for a third straight time w/ him on the mound and surprisingly did so in relatively high-scoring fashion, losing by a score of 7-4. The Sox have now allowed a total of 17 runs in this series w/ the Tigers, so I won't be calling for them to win, but I think they'll do a better job at limiting the damage Detroit does at the plate here. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Justin Verlander should also do "his part," thus I'm on the Under this afternoon.

Chicago's lineup has been scuffling for some time now. The team batting average is just .220 the last seven games and they've been held to three runs or less in 11 of the past 20 games. Note that the scoring didn't really pick up until the late innings yday as it was just a 2-1 game after five innings and 4-2 game after seven innings. It figures to be another low-scoring game at the outset w/ these two starters on the hill. Let's start w/ Verlander, who has a 0.794 WHIP his L3 starts and like I said, he'll be facing a struggling lineup today.  In 22 career meetings vs. the White Sox, Verlander has turned in a 2.89 ERA and he's mainly done his best work here at home.  Last time out was actually just the third time this season where he gave up more than three runs in a start, but at least it was still the fifth straight time he went 7+ innings.

Starting today for the White Sox will be Jose Quintana, who has virtually seen nothing but Unders this season.  His first start of the year, a 5-4 win over Oakland, did go Over, but since then it's been 10 consecutive Unders for him including a 1-0 loss his last time out.  Nine of those last 10 starts have seen five or fewer total runs scored and only one time has he allowed more than 3 ER all season!  Six times he's allowed 1 or 0 ER.  The last time he started here at Comerica Park, he allowed just one run in seven innings, but the team still came out on the losing end of a 2-1 final.  8* Under White Sox/Tigers

10* Under Giants/Cardinals (7:15 ET):  Runs were fairly scarce last night in the series opener and I expect that to be the case once again Saturday night in St. Louis. Giants' starter Johnny Cueto overcame a season-high five walks to hold the Cardinals to just one run over six innings and the bullpen took it from there. The fact that the final score ended up being 5-1 is a little misleading as SF put three runs on the board in the top of the ninth.  In terms of run prevention, the Giants have allowed just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents hitting .179 against them the L7 games. I expect tonight's starter Jeff Samardzija to continue that trend.

On the road this season, Samardzija has been a favorite of Under bettors w/ six of his seven starts going that way and the one that did not was a push.  He's actually off a disappointing showing where he allowed five runs to Atlanta.  But considering he'd allowed just 6 ER total in his previous five starts to that one, I expect he'll bounce back in this spot.  Only two times in 10 starts this year has Samardzija allowed more than 3 ER. He has a 2.84 ERA and 1.092 WHIP.  Only twice in the L26 games has a San Francisco starter allowed more than 3 ER!  Samardzija has a 2.12 ERA his L5 starts vs. St. Louis. 

The only thing that concerns me here, in terms of the Under, is the recent string of performances by Cardinals' starter Michael Wacha.  However, he pitched better his last time out, giving up just three runs on four hits in 6 IP and he has dominated the Giants throughout his career to the tune of a 0.47 ERA in three starts.  In terms of run support, the Cards have now scored only one run in B2B contests and are batting below .200 in their last four losses.  10* Under Giants/Cardinals

6* Washington (4:05 ET):  Considering the two teams involved here and who is on the mound for the favorite, this price is actually a bargain.  Now, the Nationals did lose to the Reds yday, 7-2, but that only serves to help keep the price down here as I fully anticipate the Nats bouncing back w/ Stephen Strasburg on the mound. With the Cubs losing the last start made by Jake Arrieta, Strasburg now stands as the "king of the hill" in MLB w/ an 11-0 team start record to go along w/ his 2.69 ERA and 1.086 WHIP.   The Reds, off a win, are a good bet to regress considering they still have MLB's worst run differential (-93). They've actually won three straight, which is shocking, but twice before have failed to win four in a row this season.

Strasburg allowed just one run in six innings against St. Louis his last time out. Compared to his two previous outings, strikeout numbers were way down (only four after 21 in B2B starts vs. Mets).  Those 4 K's actually tied a season-low.  But in terms of striking out, the Reds lineup is in the top 10.  The most important thing is that the Nats have won Strasburg's last 15 starts, going back to last September, and his 2.20 ERA since June 23, 2015 is topped by only Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw.  With Strasburg on the hill, the Nats have outscored opponents 77-29 this year.  The team had won four straight before yday's surprising loss. So again, I fully anticipate them bouncing back in this spot.

Winning four straight is something the Reds have yet to do this year and w/ Dan Straily opposing Strasburg, achieving the feat here seems quite unlikely.  Straily, who allowed five runs his last time out, walks far too many batters for my liking.  Too often, he records outs via fly ball rather than ground ball, which is also a concern.  The Reds have predictably dropped both games this season when they've been a home underdog of +175 or higher on the money line while the Nats are not only 3-1 as a road fave of -175 or higher, they're 11-3 in that price range the L3 seasons. 6* Washington

    

8* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET):  Throughout the course of a season, most pitchers will run into a stretch where they go two straight starts w/o a win. But the White Sox' Chris Sale is not most pitchers.  He'd opened the year by winning nine in a row and considering he still has a 2.29 ERA and 0.877 WHIP, I don't think that anything is wrong here.  It certainly wasn't his fault that the team lost his last time out as he gave them a big lead by allowing just two runs in seven innings, only for the bullpen to implode in spectacular fashion.  Here, it is a pitching mismatch of epic proportions as Sale is opposed by Mike Pelfrey, who is winless in 10 starts w/ a 5.64 ERA and 1.785 WHIP.  This is a fairly obvious call to me.

Mirroring their ace's own results, the White Sox got off to that great start in 2016, but have hit the skids recently.  After losing six in a row, they did win B2B games over the Mets earlier in the week, but then it was a step backwards yday w/ a 10-3 loss here in Detroit. It should be noted that it was another bad night for the bullpen, which allowed six runs.  But despite what happened his last time out, Sale being on the hill here should minimize the impact of the bullpen. He's already gone the distance three times this year. He also loves pitching at Comerica Park where he has a 1.37 ERA his last three starts here.

As for Pelfrey, he actually hasn't won a start going all the way back to last August, a span of 18 outings.  In terms of durability (among other factors), he can't come close to matching Sale as he has gone 6+ innings only once in his last six starts overall.  He was w/ Minnesota last year, so he faced Chicago multiple times, and it didn't go well w/ a 5.40 ERA in three starts.  The Tigers had lost five of six going into yday, so it's not like they've been playing well either. Though separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, the White Sox still have a +16 run differential while the Tigers are -10.  8* Chi White Sox

    

5* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  You probably don't need me to tell you that this does not shape up as a promising weekend for the Braves, an awful team to begin with, who must pay a visit to Chavez Ravine.  After losing three of four earlier this week to the Cubs (at Wrigley), this represents a dramatic drop in class for Dodger blue, who surrendered more than two runs for just the second time in the last 10 games yday. Atlanta comes in as the lowest scoring team in all of baseball and w/ Kenta Maeda on the bump for the home team, this should be an easy one.

After a dominant first four starts, Maeda regressed a little, giving up exactly four runs in four of his next five outings. But he was back to dominating last Saturday vs. the Mets as he tossed five scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  That was a game where LA benefited from Noah Syndergaard being ejected early, but still, it ended up being a 9-1 victory.  Like I said earlier, the Dodgers have not been giving up many runs of late and facing the scuffling Braves should not change that. Atlanta has scored only 166 runs this year in 53 games. To put that number in perspective, there are only four other teams that have scored fewer than 200 runs this year and three of them have at least 195.  The Dodgers have scored 232 in 55 games.

So Maeda has allowed 2 ER or fewer in six of 10 starts and none at all four times. Juilo Teheran has actually done his best to keep the Braves in games, but it hasn't been enough w/ this terrible offense and somehow he has a team start record of 2-9.  That's not fair, but this is an instance where I can't project progression to the mean as the team is just so bad.  One of Teheran's shortest stints of this season came on April 20th when he lasted just 5 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.  That result brings the Dodgers to 6-0 all-time against Teheran and in the first five, his ERA was 7.36.  The Braves had yet to score more than four runs in any game started by Teheran this season.  5* LA Dodgers

full analysis soon

8* Houston (8:10 ET):  Oakland comes into this series having won five straight (longest active win streak in MLB!), but let's not give them too much credit as they're off a sweep of the lowly Twins - at home.  Prior to this current win streak, the club had lost seven of eight.  They still own the American League's second worst run differential at -42 (ahead of only Minnesota), so this is hardly an opponent worth fearing, even at this price.  Houston has been a massive disappointment so far, but at least got its last series over early yday (lost 3-0 to Arizona) and gets to stay at home this weekend.  They're a perfect 2-0 off a shutout loss so far in 2016 and I expect them to run that record to 3-0 after tonight.

The A's have not been a good read team so far this year, dropping 13 of their last 18 away from home. Starting pitching has been the main source of blame during that downfall w/ the rotation posting an 8.42 ERA. True to form, tonight's starter (Jesse Hahn) has made one road start and it did not go very well.  He allowed five runs in 5 1/3 IP while walking four batters in a 5-2 loss to Baltimore.  As a team, Oakland has lost four of its last five games here in Houston.  They're allowing a ghastly 6.0 rpg on the road for the year as well.

When these teams met earlier this season, in Oakland, it was the A's taking two of three.  But the one pitcher who won for the Astros in that series is on the bump again tonight, that being Doug Fister, who held the A's to just one run over 6 2/3 innings back on May 1st.  Fister is coming off an outstanding May overall as the team won all six of his starts w/ him posting a 2.84 ERA.  Houston had its own five-game win streak snapped yday and what's impressive about theirs is that all the wins came on the road. This team is due to turn things around (still five games below .500, especially here at home, and they've got the better run differential ("only" -24) compared to the A's, which should tell you something right there.  8* Houston

full analysis soon

7* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  When looking over the daily MLB card, I'm always drawn to pitchers whose numbers indicate they are deserving of a better team start record. One such starter for Friday is the Mets' Noah Syndergaard, who despite a 1.87 ERA and 0.973 WHIP has seen his team win only six of the 10 times he's taken the mound in 2016. Lately though, Syndergaard has really been making it difficult for opposing hitters as he checks in w/ an 0.00 ERA and 0.793 WHIP his L3 starts! The Mets still found a way to lose one of those games, that being the last one as Syndergaard was ejected in the second inning. But I think the Marlins, a team he dominated earlier this year, are in trouble tonight as they had to play yday while the Mets did not.

Back on April 12th, Syndergaard held the Marlins to just one run over seven innings and finished w/ 12 strikeouts. That type of performance is pretty indicative of what we've seen from Syndergaard all year long.  He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts overall and having thrown a total of just 51 pitches since May 22nd, he should be in top form again tonight.  After the ejection last Saturday, we saw Syndergaard come on as a reliever for the first time in his career, Tuesday vs. the White Sox, and there he struck out two of the three batters he faced while consistently hitting 100 mph on the radar gun. Earlier, I mentioned the day off and that's key; the Mets are a perfect 6-0 this season if they didn't play the previous day.

Now, the Mets do need to score.  That's been a problem of late as their offense has averaged just 2.4 rpg its last seven contests while batting a collective .194.  In four of the last five games, they've been held to two runs or fewer.  But facing Tom Koehler has always seemed to go well for them.  Miami's starter for Friday night posted an 8.22 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets last season and is just 2-5 in 14 career starts against them. Control issues have plagued Koehler this season as he has nearly as many walks (22) as he does strikeouts (24) in his L5 starts.  Coming off three straight wins over the Pirates, the Marlins might be feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but this is a bad matchup for them. 7* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  I was on the Indians last night and though it was looking "dicey" there for awhile, they did come through for me in the end, winning in walk off fashion. As I said in the analysis yday, this is a really big series for Cleveland, who can pull ahead of the first place Royals w/ a sweep here at Progressive Field.  They are the better team in the AL Central, at least for my money, and run differential backs me up here as the Tribe are +28 in that department for the season while KC is just +9.  Similar to yday, I see a big-time pitching edge being in favor of the home team here.  I'm on the Tribe for a second straight game. 

Danny Salazar may have only a 5-5 team start record, but he's pitched well. He has a 2.39 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 10 starts and at home he's been at his best w/ a 1.61 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. Only one time all season has Salazar allowed more than 3 ER in an outing and that was on the road against Boston, who has the best offense (by far) in all of baseball.  He rebounded his last time out w/ a quality start vs. Baltimore, giving up only two runs in six innings.  In three career meetings vs. Kansas City, Salazar has posted a 1.35 ERA, so he has a strong history against this opponent.  Remember that the Royals are currently w/o three key hitters - Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas - in their lineup.  

As was the case w/ Yordano Ventura on Thursday, the Royals starter for Friday has overachieved this year as well. Edinson Volquez has a 7-3 TSR, but both his ERA and WHIP are clearly inferior to those of his counterpart Salazar, so again we see how misleading a pitcher's won-loss record can be.  On the road is where Volquez has struggled the most as his ERA is 6.95 and his WHIP is 1.909 in four starts.  Regardless of the location, whether it be here in Cleveland or at Kauffman Stadium, Volquez hasn't fared well against the Indians (8.31 ERA in eight career starts). He's allowed 11 home runs in those eight outings while going just 2-5. He allowed five runs (in just 4 1/3 IP) to them earlier this year, in what ended up being a 5-4 loss. By the way, in that same series, Salazar blanked the Royals for 7 2/3 innings in what ended up being a 7-1 win (for Cleveland).  More of the same here.  8* Cleveland

full analysis soon

10* Over Mariners/Padres (9:10 ET): All it took was Felix Hernandez being scratched from last night's scheduled start to completely change the complexion of the game.  Fill-in James Paxton was a disaster as he allowed six runs in the first inning, five of them unearned. San Diego would go on to win 14-6, a nice bounce back from their 16-4 loss in Seattle on Tuesday (where I had the Mariners).  As for tonight's game, seeing as we've seen 20 runs scored in each of the last two games, I think there's only one way to go here & that's Over.  Even Monday's series opener saw 12 total runs scored, so this series certainly hasn't lacked in scoring.  With two struggling starters and a low number, this O/U line simply looks off.

The Mariners could have scored more yday, but left the bases loaded in the first.  This is a team that comes in averaging 7.9 rpg its last seven contests and while that's obviously inflated by Tuesday's outburst, note that they are scoring 5.0 rpg for the year and 5.4 rpg on the road. That's bad news for Padres starter Colin Rea, who has a 6.00 ERA and 1.467 WHIP his L3 starts.  Rea hasn't lasted longer than five innings in any of those three outings and the San Diego bullpen has generally been pretty terrible this season.   Seattle has a total of 28 hits the last two games.   Rea was sent back down to the minors, missing his last turn in the rotation, but he pitched only one inning, so I hardly think we'll be getting a different pitcher here.

Seattle's Wade Miley has a 5.06 ERA and 1.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers aren't much higher than his YTD marks and he's allowed a total of nine runs in his L10 innings of work.  In six of his 10 starts this year, Miley has allowed at least four runs.  He allowed three home runs in his last start, the second time this year he's done that.  The Over is 6-3 in Miley's nine starts, same as it is in Rea's nine starts.   All signs point to an Over here.  10* Over Mariners/Padres

6* Colorado (8:40 ET):  I've had my "finger on the pulse" of this series as not only did I cash the Rockies on Tuesday, but I had the Under yday (Reds won 7-2).  As I said in my analysis Tuesday, betting against Cincinnati when they're off a win is probably a good idea.  Not only does this team have - by far - the worst run differential in all of MLB (-105), but they haven't posted B2B wins in nearly a month. They'll also be sending the struggling Alfredo Simon to the mound. He has an ERA of 11.48 and a WHIP of 2.401 his last three starts. Pitching at Coors Field, it's unlikely he'll turn into Cy Young overnight.

I was surprised that the Rockies fared so poorly last night w/ Tyler Chatwood on the hill.  Tonight, they turn to Eddie Butler, who has less impressive numbers but has also alternated good and bad starts over his last four. He's "due" for a good one here after allowing four runs (on only four hits) in 5 IP vs. San Francisco on Saturday.  Prior to that, he'd allowed only two runs (one unearned) against Pittsburgh, a formidable offensive team. Butler figures to get plenty of offensive support here and I just can't see the Reds lineup producing in B2B days. Cincy is only 1-14 this year as a ML road underdog of +150 to +200.

Among starters who have pitched at least 30 innings this year, Simon has the highest ERA in all of MLB (9.15).  In seven of his nine starts, he's failed to go longer than five innings, which means trouble as the Reds bullpen is just atrocious (7.43 ERA, 1.900 WHIP on the road). Simon himself has saved his worst for the road as he has a 13.85 ERA and 2.846 WHIP in four starts. Expect Colorado, who averages 5.8 rpg at home, to score early and often in this one.  Note that Cincinnati has not won a four-game series here in Denver since 1998!  6* Colorado

    

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):   It hasn't been a particularly impressive homestand so far for the Indians, who were able to take only one game against both the Orioles and Rangers. But they can atone for that here in what shapes up as a very important weekend series vs. division rival Kansas City. While much of Cleveland will be focused on the NBA Finals, the Tribe actually has a chance to pull into first place in the AL Central if they were to sweep here. They've been the better team over the course of the year compared to the Royals and have the run differential to prove it (+27 to +10).  KC has been hot (won six straight) but the entirety of the win streak has come at home and they did drop two of three here at Progressive Field earlier this year. They are just 11-15 on the road overall.

Tonight's game marks the return of Carlos Carrasco to the Cleveland starting rotation. What a welcome sight he will be.  Prior to landing on the DL w/ a hamstring injury, Carrasco has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 in four starts w/ the team winning all of them.  As per usual, he's averaging about a strikeout per inning and the really good news here is that he dominated Kansas City last year even though the Royals were en route to winning the World Series.  In four starts, Carrasco was 4-0 w/ a 1.55 ERA LY vs. KC.  He'll be working on a pitch count here, but I'm confident that he'll put his team in a position to win.

Starting here for Kansas City will be Yordano Ventura and quite frankly he should feel very fortunate to have a 7-3 team start record.  He has a 5.17 ERA and 1.527 WHIP and the team has won all three times that Ventura has not factored into the decision. Furthermore, he was rocked his last time out, giving up seven runs and nine hits in just 7 IP.  Emblematic of his season, the Royals still found a way to win that game, 8-7 over the White Sox (Chicago bullpen imploded).  Ventura was also rocked when he faced Cleveland earlier this year as he gave up five runs in only four innings.  The Royals lost that game, 7-1.  Since the start of last season, Ventura hasn't lasted longer than 5 1/3 innings in any of his three starts vs. Cleveland and has a 7.53 ERA.  8* Cleveland

10* Under Reds/Rockies (8:40 ET):  I had the Rockies yday and boy did they ever come through for me, winning 17-4.  As you might expect, with two generally terrible pitching staffs in play, both games of this series have now been high scoring (Reds won Monday's opener, 11-8). But Wednesday's starter for the Rockies, Tyler Chatwood, at least inspires a little confidence and there's probably no way that the Reds' Jeremy Lamb can be any worse than he's been of late. Thus, I'll make the somewhat surprising call of "Under" for tonight's rubber match at Coors Field.

Rockies' home games are averaging a whopping 13.7 runs so far, so we're going to need to trim some scoring off here. Chatwood is a good place to start. He allowed only one unearned run his last time out - and only four hits - in a 5-2 win over the Giants. Now, it could obviously be pointed out that game took place in San Francisco. But note that in his last start here at Coors Field, Chatwood again allowed only one run, this time on six hits in six innings of work. In eight of his 10 starts this season, Chatwood has allowed 3 ER or less. Three times he hasn't allowed a single run at all.  The Under is 8-2 in those 10 starts, including 4-1 here at home and 3-0 his L3 overall.

The numbers are atrocious for Reds' starter Jeremy Lamb.  He's been killed in both road starts and now has a 10.53 ERA and 2.268 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  Even pitching at hitter-friendly Coors, I don't see the numbers getting any worse though.  The Rockies matched a season-high w/ 17 runs yday and tied a franchise record w/ SEVEN home runs.  Those numbers are obviously going to come down.  Note that after scoring 17 runs in a game vs. the Giants earlier this year, Colorado fell back down to Earth and scored only four the next game.  This is a classic case of taking advantage of the previous day's results and getting some good value.  10* Under Reds/Rockies

5* Washington (7:05 ET):  I simply have little regard for an overachieving Phillies team that should feel incredibly fortunate to even be at .500 right now.  Their YTD run differential is -48 and based solely on that, you would expect them to be 14 games BELOW .500! No team has "overachieved" more to this point and the key for the Phils has been a MLB-best 14-5 record in one-run games. Keep in mind that run differential is currently fifth worst in all of baseball! Signs of regression have already begun to set in as they've now lost five in a row after falling yday here at home, 5-1 at home to the Nationals, who I expect to finish off the three-game sweep tonight.

Max Scherzer gives his team a big advantage in this series finale.  Scherzer has been a little unlucky thus far. You can tell that by the fact he has a 4.05 ERA, but a 1.091 WHIP.  His last start was emblematic of that discrepancy as he only allowed three hits in seven innings, but still gave up five runs.  There were some atypical control issues (four walks), but consider that in his previous three starts Scherzer had posted 38-3 KW ratio.  His WHIP over his L3 starts is 0.891.  He has also dominated Philadelphia throughout his career, going 5-0 w/ a 1.65 ERA against them since his rookie season. In four starts here in Philly, he's allowed just four runs in 21 IP and has 22 K's.

Walks and home runs have hurt Scherzer this year, but fortunately for him the Phils have hit only 13 HR's at home this year and are baseball's lowest scoring team at home overall (2.8 rpg).   It also helps that the beleaguered Adam Morgan will be starting opposite him. Take away two starts vs. Atlanta and Morgan has a 10.26 ERA this year w/ 27 hits allowed in just 16 2/3 innings.  Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings vs. the Cubs.  He now has a 9.88 ERA and 1.902 WHIP his L3 starts overall.  The Phillies are "due" to keep regressing as they are one of the worst teams in baseball, no matter what the record says.  5* Washington

    

5* NY Mets (1:10 ET):  For the 1st time in a week, the White Sox won a game, beating the Mets 6-4 yday. But don't look for the "good times" to last here as they are going up against Jacob deGrom in the finale of a three-game set in Queens.  What ills this club is far from cured and today's early start time would certainly seem to favor the home team (who is 12-4 in day games this season).  Then there is the fact that the White Sox did not win a single road series in the month of May.  DeGrom has not lost at Citi Field this year, posting a 4-0 TSR w/ a 2.25 ERA and 1.042 WHIP.

Things did not get off to a very good start for Chicago yday as they fell behind early, 4-0, and appeared to be well on their way to an eighth straight defeat. But a bullpen, which has struggled badly over the week, did its job and kept the team in the game, allowing the offense the opportunity to rally.  Still though, the Sox are only 5-15 their L20 games.  I'm not expecting much here from starter Miguel Gonzalez, who has seen the team lose each of his last three starts. Plus, he has a 4.91 ERA and 1.682 WHIP on the road this season.

deGrom is off a strong outing, here at home, as he allowed just one run and three hits over 7 IP against the Dodgers.  Remember that a White Sox lineup that already isn't hitting much loses the DH in this series because it's a NL park.  Only once this season (in eight starts) has deGrom given up more than 3 ER.  Going back to the day game factor, the Mets are now 75-43 in them the L3 seasons while the White Sox are 55-82.  Advantage home team. 5* NY Mets

8* Colorado (8:40 ET):  This battle of NL also-rans is unlikely to attract much attention, but I anticipate the Rockies will be able to bounce back from an 11-8 loss yday to the lowly Reds. Colorado isn't a team that I endorse often, but as the odds show, this is a game and series they theoretically should dominate.  Now with Cincinnati off a win, it's a good time to play against as they are just 6-10 in that role this season, not to mention 5-19 on the road.  The Reds - by far - have the worst run differential in all of baseball (-97) and I just can't see them making it two in a row here.

The Reds' typically weak-hitting lineup took advantage of the thin air here at Coors Field and hit a season-high five home runs yesterday as they erased an early 5-1 deficit.  Their 17 hits in the game also marked a season-high.  Interestingly, Colorado's pitching staff had previously allowed the fewest number of home runs in all of baseball in the month of May (just 15). Maybe it was the early start time that was beneficial to Cincy as they are just 6-28 in night games. Regardless, regression should be in the works tonight as Rockies starter Jon Gray has actually been really sharp in four of his last five starts, including his last one where he allowed just two runs and five hits (in 7 1/3 IP) against one of the best offenses in all of baseball (Boston).

Cincinnati will be going with Jon Moscot, who is making his return from a month long stint on the DL.  The team lost all three of his starts in April w/ him posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP. I earlier mentioned the Reds' struggles on the road and the current price range has been really unfriendly as they are winless (0-7) this season when in the +150 to +175 range on the money line.  Furthermore, never discount just how truly awful the Reds' bullpen can be as they have a 7.04 ERA and 1.860 WHIP on the road this year.  8* Colorado

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  I am not the least bit surprised that in his two starts, Corey Kluber has beaten both the Red Sox (current AL East leaders) and White Sox (at the time AL Central leaders) on the road.  The 2014 Cy Young winner was certainly "due" for things to start going his way after an incomprehensible 14-27 team start record since the start of last season. In those last two starts, Kluber allowed just four runs (one unearned) in 14 1/3 IP.  The team might still be only 4-6 w/ him on the mound this year, but I'll look for Kluber to inch closer to the .500 mark after tonight as I look for the Indians to beat the Rangers, avenging last night's poor showing. 

It was a 9-2 Texas win yday as the previously unbeaten Josh Tomlin suffered his first loss of the season for Cleveland.  Tomlin simply "didn't have it" as it was 9-0 Rangers after the fourth inning.  It certainly didn't help matters that the team was charged w/ four errors either.  This team's fielding had improved rather dramatically over the course of the last year (can be traced back to the call-up of Francisco Lindor), so that was probably just a blip (three of the errors came from 3B Juan Uribe) and Kluber will give us a better start than Tomlin did.  In two career starts vs. Texas, Kluber has posted a 2.57 ERA.

Yesterday we saw one pitcher fall from the ranks of the unbeaten (Tomlin) and today I suspect the same will happen with the Rangers' Colby Lewis.  Lewis might be 4-0, but his team start record is 6-4 and he's coming off his worst outing of the year, one where he allowed six runs in just five innings vs. the Angels.  Fortunately, the offense was able to bail him out in what ended up being a 15-9 Rangers' win, but if past history is any indication, then Lewis is probably going to need a ton of help again tonight as he has not fared well in the past here at Progressive Field where his ERA is 11.74.   The Texas offense though, save for last night, simply isn't as prolific on the road as it is at home.  8* Cleveland

    

8* Seattle (3:40 ET):  After a very disappointing weekend (swept at home by the Twins!), the Mariners responded by beating San Diego 9-3 yday in the opener of a four-game set. The first two games take place here at Safeco Field, which actually hasn't been too big an advantage for the M's so far this year as they are just 11-14 in their home park. But nevertheless this remains a formidable ballclub as their +53 run differential is third best in all of MLB. The Padres, meanwhile, are not a strong club (20-32, -42) and this being a day game does them no favors considering they have a 3-14 record in the daytime so far this season. I look for Seattle (currently 4-0 vs. the NL) to stay perfect in Interleague Play.

Though Seattle didn't really pull away until the eighth inning yday, they have generally had the upper hand in this IL rivalry. They've taken six of nine meetings since 2014, including four of the last five.  San Diego starter James Shields is just 5-5 all-time vs. the Mariners, including splitting a pair of decisions in 2015.  Shields has a pretty nice ERA his L3 starts overall (1.83), but that doesn't reflect the actual number of baserunners he's allowed during that time (24 in 19 2/3 IP).  Of course, it also hasn't helped that Shields has received some of the worst run support in all of baseball (1.95 per start).  The Padres offensive struggles are of course not unique to when Shields starts; they've been shut out more times than any other team in baseball. Dating back to last year, Shields has a 2-8 TSR his L10 starts.

Though these teams meet every year, Hisashi Iwakuma has actually never gotten a chance to face San Diego.  Now is probably as good a time as any for his first shot as Iwakuma is coming off B2B quality outings, including a 13-3 win vs. Oakland last Wednesday.  The Padres have not scored more than four runs in any of their last 10 games against the Mariners. In half of those games (five times), they've been held to one or no runs.  Overall, SD has dropped 11 of 14 games and as I mentioned before, they really struggle in the daytime (.213 team batting average). 8* Seattle

full analysis soon

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): There's no doubt in my mind as to who has the pitching edge in this rubber match. It's the far better team to begin with - the Giants - who will be sending Johnny Cueto to the bump this afternoon at Coors Field. San Francisco scored 10 runs yesterday, the eighth time already this season that the Rockies have given up that many and with the struggling Chris Rusin going for them, there's a chance that number could go up to nine. The Giants are a perfect 6-0 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175.

Cueto has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far. He has a 9-1 team start record, 2.38 ERA and 0.991 WHIP. His one and only loss came over a month ago and the team is a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts. Lately, he's only gotten better w/ B2B complete game efforts against San Diego and last time out he didn't even allow a single run while giving up just two hits. He also didn't allow any runs when he faced Colorado on May 7th. There, he went 8 1/3 innings as the Giants won 2-1.  Cueto now has a 19-inning scoreless streak against Colorado.  Even at Coors, he's been just fine.  Since the last time he faced the Rockies, his ERA is a miniscule 0.81. 

Then, you have Chris Rusin, who has a 7.31 ERA and 2.187 WHIP his last three starts.  That includes allowing a career-worst 13 hits against the Giants on May 5th, a start where he was bailed out big-time by the offense, who scored 17 runs that game. Nothing even close will happen today vs. Cueto, but don't be surprised if the Giants offense puts a similar number on the board today as Buster Posey is 5 for 11 lifetime vs. Rusin and is a .385 lifetime hitter here in Denver w/ 11 HR's.  Visitors are averaging 6.9 rpg while batting above .300 here at Coors Field this season.  8* San Francisco

8* Under Pirates/Rangers (3:05 ET):  I had the Rangers yday and Yu Darvish did not disappoint in his return to the mound, striking out seven in 5 IP as the team rolled to a 5-2 victory.  That was the first loss in the last six games for the Pirates and not coincidentally their lowest scoring game during that time frame as well. Though they've been one of the top offensive teams in all of MLB so far, I expect the Bucs to again struggle at the plate Sunday afternoon as they go up against Martin Perez, who is certainly deserving of better than a 3-7 team start record this year.  Meanwhile, Texas has largely been unable to string together B2B strong days at the plate of late.  Take the Under.

Perez has a 3.13 ERA and 1.326 WHIP for the season, solid numbers, as there's been just two times that he's allowed more than 3 ER in a start.  The southpaw is coming off his best showing of 2016 to date as he blanked the Angels for six innings, allowing just five hits.  In five home starts this season, Perez has a 2.08 ERA. Really, his only "issue" is that in terms of run support, he's near the bottom of MLB w/ only 2.39 per game.  Quite frankly, all I'm looking for here is a "typical" Perez start as five of his last seven have stayed Under the total. The five Unders have all seen five or fewer runs scored.

This will be a battle of southpaws as the Pirates send Francisco Liriano into action. Liriano has made just one bad start (vs. Cubs) over his last five; otherwise he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in the other four.  Last time out, he battled through five walks to allow only one run and two hits as the team won - easily - 12-1 against the Diamondbacks. I highly doubt that Liriano will be getting that much run support again, but I do anticipate him holding up his end of the bargain.  This is a really good number we're getting as well; in fact I was stunned the O/U line would be so high.  8* Under Pirates/Rangers

8* Washington (1:35 ET):  After taking the opener of this four-game set (2-1), the Nationals have dropped B2B games to the Cardinals as their offense continues to struggle. They've put only eight runs on the board this entire series, but fortunately they won't need many today with Stephen Strasburg on the bump. Tied w/ the Cubs' Jake Arrieta for the best team start record in all of baseball (perfect 10-0), Strasburg has a 2.79 ERA and 1.064 WHIP, not to mention 21 K's his L2 starts. He provides his team a clear advantage today over St. Louis, who must turn to the struggling Michael Wacha.

Wacha's last three starts have all been pretty bad. He's lasted only four innings in every time and in the process has allowed 32 runners to reach base and 22 of them to score! That's a 12.00 ERA and 2.667 WHIP, if you're keeping score at home. He comes off what was arguably a career-worst effort where he allowed eight runs in a 12-3 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday, in the process becoming the first Cardinals' pitcher since '07 to lose five straight decisions.  

Meanwhile, the last time the Nats lost w/ Strasburg on the bump was September 9th.  The only two pitchers in baseball w/ a better ERA since June of last year are Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw.  Of course, it helps that the offense has averaged 6.7 runs in his 10 starts this year.  When he faced St. Louis exactly one month ago, Strasburg held them to just two runs across seven innings. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts.  It's clearly a big-time pitching mismatch in this one and the Nats are 24-10 L34 when a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line.  8* Washington

5* Arizona (10:10 ET):  When the D'backs shelled out all that money in the offseason for Zack Greinke, I don't think they were envisioning a 4.59 ERA and 1.314 WHIP after 10 starts. Always a dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, Greinke has really struggled to adapt to the more hitter friendly confines of Chase Field in Arizona, but tonight along comes a familiar foe in the form of San Diego and one that he should clearly be able to dominate.

There are some pretty clear signs that Greinke is turning things around. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last eight starts and his last time out saw him hold one of the game's better offenses to just one run and five hits over eight innings.  Earlier this year, he held San Diego to just two runs and six hits in 7+ innings and the team got the 3-2 win.  In 13 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 6-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA.  Remember that no team has been shut out more times this season than have the Padres.

Poor starting pitching has burned in Arizona in recent days, but Greinke should change that here. Meanwhile, starting for San Diego here will be Cesar Vargas, who has a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts so far. He hasn't won any of them and in fact is still looking for his first career big league victory overall! He's off his longest outing ever, which could be a problem, and the Padres are just 7-11 off a win this season.  Arizona has typically done a great job at bouncing back from a loss like yday as they are 4-1 this season following a game where they allowed 10 or more runs.  5* Arizona

8* Texas (7:15 ET):  Pittsburgh has now won five in a row after last night's 9-1 victory here in Arlington. But nevertheless, I'll "buck" them here as the Rangers will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound for the first time in 2016.   This will be the first time Darvish has started a game in 22 month, but I don't think he's forgotten how to pitch. That's confirmed by five rehab starts - spread out across Double A & Triple A where posted a 0.90 ERA w/ 21 K's and six walks. 

Pitching for the Pirates here will be Juan Nicasio and his recent results have not been good. Opponents have hit .333 off him this month while his ERA is 6.46.  Remember that he worked almost entirely as a reliever last season, so he'll be limited by a pitch count here as well and in fact his last turn was skipped in the rotation.  The last time we saw him in a full outing, he did not look good at all.  He allowed five runs in five innings and that was against Atlanta, the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. He was quite fortunate that his offense bailed him out in that one.  He won't be as fortunate here.

When a home team is blown out like the Rangers were on Friday, they typically come back strong the following day.  Texas has a winning record off a loss this year and is a strong 16-9 overall at home, including 4-1 as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range.  A big key is that their offense averages 5.3 rpg here, so look for a bounce back at the plate after scoring only one run yday.  Facing the struggling Nicasio helps as well.    8* Texas

10* Under Astros/Angels (10:05 ET): A division matchup, two starting pitchers coming off quality outings and one team that's not hitting at all is the combination of factors that has led me to play the Under in this series opener.  Houston played yday and while they managed to finish off a sweep of Baltimore (at home), the fact is this team isn't hitting much at all of late. All three games with the Orioles stayed Under the total and they've gone seven consecutive games with eight hits over less. As a team they are batting just .174 during this time and scoring 2.3 runs per game w/ no more than four runs scored in any one game.  The Angels are off a high-scoring result on Wednesday, but that was only after two low-scoring games previously. Take the Under.

Houston's current woes at the plate has to be a joyous site to Angels starter Matt Shoemaker, who is coming off an absolutely superb outing, easily his best of the season to date.  He went 7 1/3 innings and gave up all of three hits and finished w/ 12 strikeouts.  He threw 71 of 95 pitches for strikes. The only problem is the offense forgot to score for him and as a result the Halos lost the game, 3-1 to Baltimore.  Speaking of problems, home has generally been unkind thus far to Shoemaker, but I look for that to change tonight.  Houston is hitting only .231 on the road this year.  The Under is 5-2-1 in Shoemaker's last eight home starts.

The Under is also 13-4-2 in the last 19 meetings between these AL West rivals.  The Under is also 7-1 in the Astros' last eight games overall.  As alluded to earlier, Houston's starter Michael Fiers, is also off a quality start, in fact two in a row. Last time out, he allowed only two runs and six hits in seven innings against Texas.  His start before that, he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings against Cleveland.  Speaking of quality starts, Fiers was a perfect 2 for 2 in that department vs. the Angels last season, holding them to just six runs and 10 hits in 13 2/3 total innings.  I'll look for something similar tonight.  10* Under Astros/Angels

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  It's looking more and more like this simply isn't "the Cardinals year."  Yes, they have the impressive run differential (+40), but they continue to hover right around .500 (24-24) as they lost yday here in the Nation's capital. The final score was 2-1 as the club fell to 3-7 in one-run games this season. Normally, I might make a move to call for their luck to turn, but the news keeps going from bad to worse w/ this team as yday saw their hottest hitter leave the game w/ back stiffness. Matt Adams was hitting .383 w/ a .700 slugging percentage since April 28th, so this would potentially be a major loss for a lineup that's already w/o home run and RBI leader Matt Carpenter (paternity list). Washington is 4-0 this season vs. St. Louis.  Make it 5-0 after tonight.

The Nats can now run out Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg in successive days, so the rest of this series is not looking good for the Cardinals. St. Louis has scored just three runs in their last three games vs. Washington!  Scherzer was responsible for one of those efforts, tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Redbirds back on May 1st.  He followed that up w/ a somewhat disastrous outing vs. the Cubs, but since then has posted an outstanding 0.772 WHIP over the course of three starts w/ a 38-3 KW ratio.  He has a 2.70 ERA in five career starts vs. St. Louis.

On the other hand, we have Cardinals' starter Jaime Garcia, who was beat up for five runs and 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings his last time out. That was at home against Arizona.  He didn't fare too well against Washington at Busch Stadium either as he took a 6-1 loss there back on April 30th after allowing four runs in 6 1/3 IP.  This is a pitcher with more walks (5) than strikeouts (3) his L2 starts.  That's never a good sign obviously.   Nor is the fact that Bryce Harper may be on his way to fighting out of a prolonged slump as he was the one who hit the GW HR Thursday.  The Nationals are 6-1 this season as home favorites of -150 to -175 and 35-19 in that same price range the L3 years.  8* Washington