8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior sweep at the hands of tonight's opponent. In this instance, KC is actually 0-5 head to head this season w/ Minnesota having dropped a pair of games at home late last month. What makes this such an opportune time to take them though is that the Twins had to play a doubleheader against the Rockies. While Minny was able to salvage a split of the two games yday (won Game 2, 2-0). you have to wonder what kind of effect playing that much baseball in one day and then starting a new series w/o rest will have. My guess is the Royals will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

The Twins came up to bat 17 times yday, yet scored only three runs total. This is the continuation of a trend which has seen the offense held to four runs or less in six consecutive games. Only once in the L10 games have they finished w/ 10+ hits and they're batting only .219 this last week. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Royals starter Nate Karns, who already comes in w/ a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP his last three starts (3-0 TSR). Karns has been racking up the strikeouts as well as he has 22 in his last two starts and a 29-4 KW rate during the three-game win streak. The Twins have NOT faced him this year. 

It hasn't been a great start to the season for the Royals, but they did win yday, thus avoiding what would have been a sweep by the Yankees. They've also won 7 of their last 10 overall. Minnesota, a 100+ loss team a year ago, got off to a surprisingly good start but seems primed to start heading in the opposite direction. They have a losing record at home so far and the rotation is not set up well in this series as Erwin Santana and Jose Berrios both went yday. Hector Santiago is on the mound tonight as his L3 starts have gone very different from Karns' as he has a 6.45 ERA and 1.565 WHIP. That's mainly due to a terrible last outing where he allowed six runs (three HR's) in just 2 2/3 IP at Cleveland. Santiago did beat the Royals in his first start of '17, but has a 3.82 ERA against them in 16 career starts. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, Atlanta is seeking revenge for a three-game sweep that took place here at home last month. Admittedly, this shapes up as a pretty daunting series for them, even though they are again the home team. They will be w/o Freddie Freeman (their best hitter), not just for this series, but for the next eight weeks. Yesterday saw them get crushed 9-0 (here at home) by Toronto. But, prior to that they had won three in a row and five of six. I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener.

Washington isn't exactly in fine form either right now after B2B blowout losses at the hands of Pittsburgh. Run differential indicates that the Pirates have played worse than the Braves this season, so there is hope. The Nats allowed 10 runs themselves yday afternoon, most of that damage coming off four home runs. Tonight's starter Gio Gonzalez has pitched relatively well this year, but the number of pitches being thrown by Nationals' starters is a bit of a concern for me. Gonzalez has now thrown 100+ pitches in seven consecutive starts. This is a direct result of the Nats' disastrous bullpen, which has a 6.39 ERA and 1.630 WHIP on the road. That major weakness is something that can give Braves' fans some hope here as I'm banking on the home team being able to score in the late innings here.

Thus far, SunTrust Park hasn't been too kind to the home team. The Braves are just 6-9 in their new stadium, but they've also played the fewest number of home games in all of MLB, so it's still a small sample size. They do need to (obviously) decrease the number of runs they're allowing here (6.3 per game so far!). Charged with that task tonight is knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has generally been effective this year in limiting runs. Perhaps his best start came against these Nationals back on April 20th as he allowed just three runs on three hits in 7 IP. It was a game the Braves lost by one run (3-2), a result which would be just fine tonight given how we're playing the game. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, the Yankees swept Tampa Bay back in early April. But that was in the Bronx. The Rays had previously taken two of three from their AL East rival here at Tropicana Field in the first series of 2017. They have been a superior team at home so far this season, going 12-10 here as opposed to 9-12 on the road. The Yanks have been formidable in most settings so far, racing out to the American League's 2nd best record. But I believe the Rays are better than their overall record and will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

While TB has been better at home this year, they come into tonight off a pair of impressive road wins over Cleveland. They have an edge over their opponents tonight in that they were off yday while the Yankees were wrapping up a series in Kansas City. After those two wins in Cleveland, the Rays have now outscored opponents over the course of the first 43 games. Tonight, they turn to a spot starter, but one that has come through for them in the past. That would be Erasmo Ramirez, who on April 20th came in and held the Tigers to just one run on two hits (solo HR) over five innings. He also struck out five in an easy 8-1 win for the team. On Sunday, he threw 28 pitches in relief and didn't allow a hit w/ four strikeouts in two innings. That was at Boston, another series that the Rays won.

The Yankees might be known as "The Bronx Bombers," but Tampa Bay's lineup has been as prolific as any when it comes to hitting home runs this year. They had 10 in the series vs. Cleveland, a franchise record for a three-game set. That ties them w/ the Yankees for the overall American League (59) this year. I bring this up b/c in all but two starts this season, NY starter Luis Severino has allowed a HR. One of the two he didn't came his last time out, but even then he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and had more walks than strikeouts. He also allowed three runs and it took him 44 pitches to get the first three outs. When he was mercifully pulled, he had already thrown 77 pitches while recording only seven outs. That's highly inefficient. At the plate, the Yanks have been completely "feast or famine" in a 3-5 stretch, getting held to three runs or less in half of those games. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for the White Sox and not just because they are having to hand the baseball to Dylan Covey, arguably the worst starter in all of MLB. Last night down in Los Angeles, the team held an early 4-0 lead, but then allowed the game's next 12 runs and ended up being swept by the Angels as a result. Coming off a game like that, they're in dire need of a quality start and the problem there is Covey is simply not the man for the job. Through six starts, he remains winless w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. Therefore, I'm willing to lay the juice w/ a relative unknown, Sam Gaviglio, who starts here for Seattle and is making just his second career big league appearance. 

The Mariners got a career-best outing from Christian Bergman last night (pitched into the 8th inning) and Jean Segura extended his hit streak to 16 games in a 4-0 shuout of the A's. Really, that series should have been a sweep for Seattle, but on Tuesday they allowed five runs in the top of the ninth (2 HR's) to lose 9-6. The bullpen is definitely a concern up here in the Pacific Northwest, but the good news is that the team is much better at home. They're 12-6 at Safeco Field this year including 6-1 in the -125 to -175 price range. Offensive production rises to roughly 5.5 runs per game at home. The team had been swept in Toronto prior to taking two of three from Oakland. I look for this weekend to continue the positive homestand as Chicago is averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road. 

Before getting swept by the Angels, the White Sox were actually tied for the fewest number of runs allowed in the American League. For the life of me, I can't understand how as this rotation is bad save for Jose Quintana. As long as the likes of Covey, Mike Pelfrey and Derek Holland continue getting regular work, expect the losses to start piling up on the South Side. In this spot, I project Covey to have as bad a start as any pitcher all weekend. Covey did rack up a career-best 9 K's his last time out, but that was against San Diego and he still allowed two HR's and gave up three runs in just 4 1/3 IP. Only one time in his six starts has Covey made it to the sixth inning and there he gave up six runs. This should be a good weekend for the home team, starting tonight. 8* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Marlins are prime fade material right now. It's bad enough that they were just swept at home by Houston (I was on the Astros yday), getting outscored 22-4 in the process. But going back further reveals this club has dropped 17 of 21 overall including eight of the last nine games. Injuries have played a key role w/ three infielders currently on the disabled list. Due to the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez during the offseason, we knew this starting rotation would struggle (Wei-Yin Chen was their Opening Day starter!), but things have been even worse than expected thus far. Can't see the Fish turning things around this weekend in Chavez Ravine where the Dodgers have outscored visitors by an impressive 2.5 runs per game. 

Like Miami, the Dodgers went into yday afternoon facing the prospect of getting swept. Unlike Miami, they instead came through (w/ Clayton Kershaw on the hill), beating the Giants 6-1. To me, LA is a team much better than its record. They now own the NL's best run differential (+55) thanks in large part to the dominance exerted here at home. I was stunned to learn that they went just 1-6 against the Marlins last year, including a four-game sweep here at Dodger Stadium. Don't look for history to repeat itself this weekend however. Rather, I wouldn't be at all surprised if things went the other way and the Dodgers took all four games. 

Tonight's two starters have a combined record of 2-11. But the difference between Edinson Volquez and Hyun-Jin Ryu is the latter is backed by a far superior team. Ryu is coming off a "rocky" start, pardon the pun, at Coors Field last week. But in his two starts prior, he'd allowed just one run each time out. As for Volquez, the Marlins are 1-7 w/ him on the mound this year. While his first start back from a stint in the DL went well enough, it was against Atlanta and the team still lost. He doesn't figure to pitch nearly as well tonight considering Los Angeles is batting .277 at home. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, go on a big run during this 10-game homestand. 8* LA Dodgers

6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Prior to this series commencing, I predicted that "order would be restored" in the NL Central. Sure enough, the Cubs have won both games so far w/ me taking them each time. Whereas they pulled away late in Tuesday's opener, last night saw them jump out to an early 7-2 lead, which was more than enough for starter Kyle Hendricks. Troubling for the Reds is that the World Champs were able to score seven times on just six hits (did draw six walks) and that was while going 3 for 10 w/ RISP. Today, I'll call for the Cubs to complete the sweep behind Jon Lester, who is 3-1 in 10 career starts vs. the Reds w/ a 3.72 ERA. A 3-5 team start record is quite misleading for Lester as he has FIVE no-decisions and a 1.44 ERA and 0.960 WHIP here at Wrigley. 

Prior to the start of the season, if someone would have told you that the Reds would come into this mid-May series w/ a better record than the Cubs, you may have told them to have their head examined. Yet, shockingly, that was the case. But as alluded to above, order is beginning to get restored in this division. Cincy has now dropped five in a row, all on the road. As previously discussed, a "home-heavy" early part of the schedule certainly played a role in the club's surprisingly decent start. But, again, I point to the fact that most felt this would be one of the worst teams in all of baseball prior to the start of the season. Having to start the likes of Amir Garrett was indicative of that projection. Recalled from Triple-A for this game, Garrett has an unimpressive 7.16 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts for the big league club. 

The Cubs offense has seemingly come alive in this series w/ 16 runs scored in the first two games. I expect that to continue this afternoon. In games where they face a lefty starter (Garrett is a southpaw), they are averaging a healthy 6.3 runs. Key for the Cubs has been drawing walks; they are #1 in all of MLB in that category right now. Despite a poor batting average, Kyle Schwarber has actually reached base in every game he has started since May 2nd. Remember, a walk is just as good as hit. Garrett has issued 11 free passes his L3 starts while also allowing 5 HR's (wind expected to be blowing out to right field this afternoon). Meanwhile, Lester has allowed four or fewer hits in all four home starts this season. The Cubs are now 32-11 head to head vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I was on the Cubbies yday and sure enough they came through w/ a relatively easy 9-5 win. If you go back and read my analysis, you'll note that I started off w/ the assertion that this will be a series where "order is restored" in the National League Central. It was nothing short of jaw-dropping that the Reds came in w/ the better record given the respective ends of the spectrum these two teams were projected to be at, prior to the season starting. The Cubs are nowhere near as mediocre as their record shows while the Reds have been "playing over their heads" these first 38 games. At home, the Cubs show "who's boss" once again tonight.

Over the last few seasons, the Cubs have owned the Reds. They went 15-4 against them last season and are 31-11 head to head since the start of 2015. So far in '17, they've taken three of the four matchups. Today, we have Kyle Hendricks on the bump. After a somewhat shaky start to the year, he's seemingly regained LY's form. His ERA is 1.52 over the L4 starts even though he comes off a hard-luck loss at Colorado last week. In that last start, Hendricks allowed allowed all three runs (only two earned), but on just four hits and struck out seven. His last home start came against the powerful Yankees and saw him toss 5 1/3 shutout innings. He's allowed three runs or less in five of seven starts overall. Good news for him tonight is the Reds' offense has begun to "scuffle" w/ an average of just 3.4 runs scored over the last eight games. 

The regression that I project to take hold of Cincinnati has really already begun as they've dropped four in a row. A "home-heavy" schedule definitely played a role in the surprising start to the season. Entering today's play, no team has played fewer road games than have the Reds (16). Starter Scott Feldman pitched for the Cubs during the "rebuilding days," but there's a reason he's not a part of their rotation any longer. Sadly, he was signed by Cincy in the offseason to be their Opening Day starter. While he's off B2B quality starts, including a CG shutout, both came against the Giants' weak offense. His last start that didn't come against the Giants saw him allow seven runs in just four innings (against the Pirates). In my opinion, the money line here should be closer to -200. Surprisingly good value on the Cubs so far in this series. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Houston (12:10 ET): The Astros have dominated the first two games here in Miami, winning 7-2 and 12-2. The most impressive things about that is - despite being w/o the DH - the offense hasn't skipped a beat. In retrospect, last night's ML was a "steal" considering Dallas Keuchel was on the bump. But today's starter Lance McCullers is no slouch either and has emerged as one of the top #2's (in any rotation) in all of baseball. McCullers comes into Weds afternoon sporting a 2.98 ERA and 1.117 WHIP and the team has won six of his eight starts overall. Traditionally, the AL has owned Interleague Play through the years and these two clubs are emblematic of that. Houston is 31-13 vs. the National League the L3 seasons (4-0 in '17) while Miami is 15-34 L3 seasons (2-7 in '17). This should be an easy afternoon winner.

Houston has the best record in baseball right now at 28-12 (won last six series) and w/ a 1-2 punch like Keuchel and McCullers at the front end of the rotation, it's looking like they're going to run away w/ the AL West. McCullers hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 IP and comes in w/ a 0.93 ERA and 0.828 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he went to Yankee Stadium and shut out a very prolific offense for six innings, allowing just four hits. He also finished w/ a 7-0 KW rate. A Miami offense which has scored only eight times total in the L4 games should be no match for him.

The Marlins are in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 16 of 20 overall and are 1-7 on the current home stand. They managed only four hits last night. Converted from a relief role, starter Jose Urena has shown some promise in two starts, but he alone cannot overcome the massive talent gap between these two teams. Remember that last week saw the Marlins lose THREE infielders for an extended period of time. When looking at Urena's numbers, also keep in mind he's gotten to face the Braves and Mets, two of the NL's worst offenses. Houston averages 5.9 rpg on the road and will be by far the best lineup Urena has faced so far in 2017. 8* Houston

8* LA Dodgers (10:15 ET): After taking last night's series opener, the Giants have now won four in a row, their longest win streak of 2017 so far. But their YTD run differential (-57) remains very poor (2nd worst overall) and they're still eight games below .500. What appears to be the biggest pitching mismatch on Tuesday's card is in favor of the Dodgers and being severely underrated by the oddsmakers. Los Angeles is actually #3 in all of MLB in run differential right now (+51), so what we have here is a team underperforming in terms of wins and losses against an opponent that's overperforming. Even w/ the win streak, the Giants have been the worst team in baseball over the L100 games. Before the current win streak, they were only 1-11 off a win this year.

Making his return to the bump tonight for the Dodgers is Rich Hill. He's spent the last month on the DL (blister), so he's made only two starts so far. Clearly, I'm anticipating a more joyous return from the DL than what the Dodgers got last night from Brandon McCarthy. I can base that on Hill's history against SF, which includes a 2.70 ERA in eight career starts. The Giants are batting just .224 so far against lefty starters. The offense is 28th in runs scored and on base percentage while ranking dead last in slugging. So this is an ideal spot for Hill to make his return. P.S. The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in all of baseball this year.

The Giants counter w/ Ty Blach, who is still in search of his first big league win. He's made four starts and three of them have been pretty promising. The one that wasn't (5.6 at Cincinnati) was on the road. But his low strikeout numbers are a concern. In 22 IP, he has only FIVE K's. That's almost unheard of. He's yet to register more than two strikeouts in any start! His first career start came against these Dodgers back on 4.25 and while he allowed only two runs in five innings, he came out a hard luck loser to Clayton Kershaw (no shame there). It should be pointed out though that his L3 starts have come against the Reds (2) and Padres, who should wind up being the two worst teams in the entire Senior Circuit. LA is 11-5 off a loss this year. 8* LA Dodgers

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I expect this to be the series where reality sets in for the Reds and for order to be restored in the National League Central. Shocking is the fact Cincinnati comes into this series w/ the better record of the two teams (by one game). They were of course projected to be the second worst team in all of baseball (ahead of only San Diego). The Cubs, coming off their first World Series win in over a century, were projected to be the best. But they are one game below .500 right now after losing B2B games to the first place Cardinals. Cincy just dropped three in a row though (at San Fran), so already that "reality" I spoke of has begun to set in. Love the Cubs here in the season opener behind John Lackey. 

Not only were the Cubs beaten Sunday, but for a second time in the last four games, they were shutout. Thankfully, they're already 2-0 this season after being blanked the previous game. This week offers up an opportunity for the offense to get back on track as it's a string of mediocre to bad pitchers they'll be facing, starting here w/ Bronson Arroyo. Don't be fooled for a second that the Reds have won Arroyo's last five starts. His ERA and WHIP are 5.95 and 1.321 respectively and both numbers get even worse on the road (7.71, 1.786). Low strikeout numbers don't impress me either. He has just 9 K's total his L3 starts and six time in seven outings, he's struck out four or fewer. He allowed two home runs (both solo shots) his last time out.

Arroyo's best start, ironically, did come against the Cubs back on 4.23. He outdueled Lackey, but that was at Great American Ballpark and I like revenge to prevail in this rematch. Lackey is off his finest showing of the season to date as he struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball seven days ago. That was at Coors Field, mind you, important because it shows he can prevail in a hitter-friendly environment. It was just the second time in Coors Field history that a visiting pitcher came in and struck out 10+ hitters in seven innings or less. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight at Wrigley, which probably favors the home team. Certainly, it won't favor Arroyo. Last year saw the Cubs go 16-3 head to head against the Reds and they should go back to dominating them here. 6* Chi Cubs

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Very quietly, the White Sox are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the fewest number of runs allowed among American League teams. Therefore, you might conclude that their 17-18 record is a bit disappointing. But let's keep things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Pale Hose were not expected to be a contender in 2017 as the Chris Sale trade was a clear indicator that the future, not the present, is the focus here on the South Side. Quite simply, I do not envision the club continuing to be so stingy on that side of the ledger. Tonight, they venture into Anaheim where they have NOT fared well in recent years (1-6 since start of 2015). In a battle of teams that won Sunday, I'm siding with the home team who has actually been even stingier when it comes to runs allowed over the past week.

We've already started to see regression from the White Sox in terms of runs allowed. They allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game over the past week and having Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening isn't likely to help reverse the trend. Pelfrey, who grades out as one of the AL's weaker starters, has yet to go deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his four starts. He's winless (1-3 TSR) w/ a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. What plagued him w/ Minnesota continues to plague him in a new uniform and that's a simple inability to strike batters out. Incredibly, he has more walks (7) than K's (6) in those four starts this year. Needless to say, having only six strikeouts in four starts is really bad. So is simply having Pelfrey in your rotation. Since 2011, he's just 22-53 overall w/ four seasons of 10 or more losses. 

Angels starter Jesse Chavez isn't going to exactly set the world on fire, but he's a better option than Pelfrey. Chavez has faced the White Sox numerous times in his career and owns a 3.07 ERA against them (14 appearances). The converted reliever has said he "prefers starting" and he's allowed 3 ER or less in every start thus far. The Angels are coming off a split w/ another AL Central club, Detroit, over the weekend. We know that Los Angeles will have the best player on the field Monday and sure enough Mike Trout is in fine form right now, having homered in three consecutive games. Despite missing six games, Trout already has 11 HR's on the year. The Angels are a lot better at home (12-8) than they are on the road (7-13). 8* LA Angels

8* Under Astros/Marlins (7:10 ET): Traditionally, the American League dominated the National League in Interleague Play and these two clubs are emblematic of that. The Astros, who have the best record in baseball right now (26-12), are 29-13 against the Senior Circuit the L3 seasons including a pair of wins over lowly Atlanta last week. Miami, a team that has dropped 14 of 18, is 15-32 in IL play the L3 seasons (2-5 in 2017). So, on paper, this certainly seems to shape up as an "ideal" matchup for the road team. But, because we're talking about a NL park, the 'Stros lose the DH from their lineup and this tends to be a pitcher's park anyway. I'm on the Under here.

Marlins starter Dan Straily also might just be able to give his team a chance in this one. Don't be fooled by the 3-4 TSR as his WHIP is 1.079 and at home he's been even better (this plays into this pitcher-friendly environment I already mentioned). In four home starts, Straily has a 2.38 ERA and 0.927 WHIP. He's been extremely unfortunate at times this year, particularly B2B starts vs. Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay where he allowed only seven hits in 10 1/3 IP, but also managed to give up seven runs. He was even sharper his last time out (here at home), holding St. Louis to just one run and three hits in 7 IP. (Of course, the bullpen blew the lead). Then there was a start earlier in the year in San Diego where Straily struck out 14 batters, walked none and allowed only two runs on four hits in 7 IP. I think we'll be in good hands w/ him tonight against the DH-less Astros. 

In the final two games of this series, Miami will have to deal w/ the front end of the Houston rotation and face both Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. So going up against righty Joe Musgrove tonight clearly represents their best shot at victory in the next three games. Only problem there is Musgrove pitched well his last time out, holding Atlanta to two runs and four hits in 6 IP. This will be an easier start than usual for him as he gets to face the pitcher (loss of DH works both ways for the AL team!). The Astros split a high-scoring day-night doubleheader Sunday at Yankee Stadium and lets not discount the fatigue factor here. Miami, on the other hand, is off a pair of 3-1 games (one win, one loss). AL opponents are batting just .212 in this park (seven games) this season. 8* Under Astros/Marlins

8* Washington (7:05 ET): The last time we checked in w/ the NL East leading Nationals, it was for an Over play in Monday's series opener at Baltimore. It cashed, but overall that series didn't go that well for the club as they dropped two of three. Mother nature has since intervened with the scheduling postponing two of the last three scheduled games including Friday here at home vs. the Phillies. That's forced the division rivals to play a doubleheader Sunday and regardless of what happens in the 1st game, I like the Nats to take the nightcap w/ Max Scherzer on the hill. Through seven starts this year, Scherzer has a 0.884 WHIP and he's always had Philly's number. In 12 career starts against them, he's 8-1 w/ a 2.19 ERA. Game 2 should be an easy one for the home team.

Last night was the first time Washington had played in three days and they won when Bryce Harper (who just signed a record-setting contract) hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the ninth. That capped a six-run rally for the Nats, who initially trailed 4-0 after five innings. You have to think that's a blown opportunity for the underdog Phillies, who don't figure to get off to a similar start against Scherzer. I would definiitely call Scherzer's 4-3 team start record "misleading" given the WHIP that I already mentioned and the fact he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts overall. He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts as well w/ a total of 22 over his L2 starts. Scherzer has already beaten the Phils once this year, his first start of '17, holding them to two runs and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. 

Scherzer beat Vincent Velasquez that day (4.7) and those two will face off again Sunday. Velasquez is off a bad showing against these Nationals last week where he allowed six runs in seven innings. So, he's 0-2 against them already this year, having given up 10 runs in 11 IP. Not a good sign, clearly. In his career, he's pitched 33 1/3 innings vs. the Nats and allowed 30 hits. So they've always given him fits. It certainly doesn't help his case that they come into Sunday ranked 1st in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Overall, Philly has lost eight of its last nine games and the downward trajectory continues tonight. 8* Washington

10* NY Mets (2:10 ET): Things are not stellar right now in Queens. You have the ongoing Matt Harvey saga + the Mets have now lost three in a row. Things have not gone well here in Milwaukee w/ losses of 7-4 and 11-4 the L2 days, but this afternoon marks the 1st time where the oddsmakers are expecting them to come through. That obviously has a lot to do w/ who's pitching. Jacob deGrom gets the baseball Sunday and while he had one so-so outing so far against Atlanta (Mets still won 16-5!), other than that, he's been pretty much "lights out." One could not say the same for Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta, who carries a 5.30 ERA and 1.514 WHIP into this game. He's been even worse here at Miller Park and he's failed to last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his L4 starts. 

One thing I really like w/ deGrom is - save for that Atlanta start - he's been posting some really high strikeout totals of late. He's fanned 10 or more batters in four of the previous five starts, including 11 his last time out, a 4-3 Mets' win over the Giants. All told, he has 51 K's in his last 30 2/3 IP. Past results for him against Milwaukee have been mostly positive w/ a 2.32 ERA in five starts (3-1). Now, the Brewers' offense has been on fire of late, but note they were held to only one run (on five hits) their last time in this situation, Thursday, when they were attempting to sweep the Red Sox here at home. And that came against a far less accomplished starter (Eduardo Rodriguez) than deGrom. Something else to pay attention to is that it seems as if the Brew Crew are fortunate to be #2 in MLB in runs scored. I say that due to the fact they are just 14th and 15th respectively in team batting average and on base percentage. Cluster luck!

Prior to yday, the Mets had given up 10+ runs in a game only one other time this year. It was that disastrous 23-5 loss to Washington on April 30th and they were able to come right back and win the next day. I see the same thing playing out here. It certainly helps facing Peralta, who has been just dreadful over the course of his last four starts (7.71 ERA). Even worse for him is the fact that the three bad starts have all been here at Miller Park. Though off to a surprisingly good 20-17 start overall, the Brew Crew are only 11-11 at home. The Mets' offense has scored four or more runs in 14 of its previous 15 ballgames! So they should (theoretically) "get to" Peralta today. 10* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into the year, the Indians (defending AL Champs) were expected to run away with the Central Division. While I still see things playing out that way, it's been an admittedly pedestrian start. Recent play, in particular, has been quite disappointing. After only managing to split six road games w/ Toronto and KC (AL's two worst teams), the Tribe returned home, only to drop a pair of games against AL Central rival Minnesota. They've scored only one run in this series as offense continues to be a problem. But I don't think it will be today as they've had the number of Twins' starter Hector Santiago in the past. In 15 career appearances vs. Cleveland (10 starts), Santiago has a 4.77 ERA against Cleveland. Home team avoids the sweep here. 

Minnesota is of course trying to pay Cleveland back for what happened in the Twin Cities last month. The Tribe swept the Twins at Target Field 4.17-4.20 and that played a big role in me fading them in opener of this series (always love the revenge angle when a team was swept in previous series vs. opponent). That and Minnesota had Ervin Santana pitching. Santana shut out the Indians and then the less heralded Jorge Barrios was able to do the same yday as Cleveland has managed only six hits this entire series! The lone run scored by the Indians in this series came via a wild pitch. But there's just too much talent up and down this lineup for this lack of production to continue. Santiago has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season, but he's had control issues w/ 12 walks total in his L3 starts. 

Looking for a silver linining, Cleveland's pitching has been great in this series. They've held Minnesota to just five runs in the two games. The game's only run scored Friday was a Miguel Sano HR. The Twins have just 11 hits total in the series and in the five games vs. Cleveland this year, they've scored only 12 runs, never more than four in any one game. Cleveland starts Trevor Bauer today and while he's certainly struggled at times, he did beat Minnesota back on 4.20, giving up just two runs on three hits in 6 2/3 IP. It's - by far - Bauer's best start of the season to date. Previous to today, The Indians have twice lost three in a row. Both times, they came back to win the next game. In fact, over the L3 seasons, they are 17-5 when on a losing streak of three games or more. 8* Cleveland

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals are a team you won't find me endorsing too often this season, but I like the spot here. They beat Baltimore Friday, 3-2, and now face a significantly weaker pitcher in Chris Tillman. Yes, I know Tillman was the O's ace last year as well as #3 overall (in MLB) at the pay window in units earned (+13.7). But after starting 2017 on the DL, he's due to regress. While he did throw five shutout innings in his first start back (Sunday), Tillman also walked three batters. I see him getting outpitched here by KC's Nate Karns, whose two starts so far at Kauffman Stadium have resulted in a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has also been much better at home this year as has the entire team (as opposed to 5-16 in road games).

Buck Showalter seems to be "doing it again" as he has the Orioles in first place in the AL East w/ a 22-12 record. Only Houston has a better overall record. But as has been the case before, this club is by no means as dominant as its record might seem to indicate. They've outscored opponents by only 12 runs all year and are 13-3 at home (just 9-9 on the road). Their record is largely a byproduct of an AL-best 8-3 record in one-run games. But we saw them lose one last night, so I'm figuring now is an opportune time to bet against them.Their hitters have also been striking out a lot recently as in 34 times the L3 games alone. They plated only two runs yday and never led. 

For KC, Karns is coming off B2B outstanding outings. Last time out, he struck out a career-high 10 batters, so the # of strikeouts by the O's (reference above) certainly could be a factor tonight. Karns also allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 IP as the Royals beat the Rays 7-3 Monday. Before that, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the White Sox while striking out seven. So he's definitely in fine form coming into tonight. Speaking of fine form, Eric Hosmer is leading the Royals' offense right now w/ a .403 batting average the L16 games. Admittedly, this lineup has struggled much of this season, but they'd scored six or more runs in their last three wins prior to Friday and it was a big confidence builder, I think, for them to win a low-scoring game like last night. KC is not as bad as they looked early one while Baltimore is not as good. 10* Kansas City

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): I'm still willing to throw my support behind Braves' hurler Julio Teheran despite his disappointing start to 2017. Coming off his very unlucky '16 (10-20 TSR despite 3.21 ERA & 1.053 WHIP), I tabbed Teheran as one of two pitcher likely to have a bounce back campaign this year (Chris Archer being the other). So far, that really hasn't panned out though as his TSR is 2-5 w/ a 4.69 ERA and 1.513 WHIP. Sadly, the Braves are just 3-12 since the start of last season in Teheran starts where he does NOT factor into the decision. That all being said, Atlanta won here yday and Teheran's trials and tribulations are nothing compared to what's going on in Miami right now. The Marlins, decimated by injuries, have lost four in a row and 13 of their last 16 games.

The Marlins' rotation has been in a state of flux due to multiple injuries. In the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez, we knew this group was likely to stuggle. But the early returns have been worse than expected. De facto #1 starter Wei-Yin Chen is still on the DL. Tonight's starter Edinson Volquez, himself off a stint on the DL, has offered little in the way of relief w/ a winless record in six starts (1-5 TSR). Volquez has lasted six innings only once. His 56.9 strike rate ranks near the very bottom of the league among qualifed pitchers and he's issuing 6.9 walks per nine innings thus far, more than double last year's rate when he was w/ the Royals. In the three starts before going on the DL, Volquez produced an unsightly 2.308 WHIP. 

The Marlins are also currently working with a real "skeleton crew" on the right side of their infield. Third baseman Martin Prado as well as two shortstops, Miguel Rojas and Adeiny Hechavarria, were all lost to injury over the past week and will miss extended time. Teheran, like Volquez, has a high BB rate. But he should enjoy pitching tonight in Miami as he has 0.93 ERA in three road starts. Having just snapped their own six-game losing skid, Atlanta should have a nice weekend overall here and scoring eight runs yday was a nice start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are just in a terrible way right now and I don't see them solving Teheran, who is long overdue for better results. 10* Atlanta

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way as they dropped last night's series opener to the Reds, 3-2. Twice they blew a one-run lead before giving up the GW run in the top of the eighth. They actually out hit the Reds as well (11-7). Frustrating result and I'm not just saying that b/c they were my 10* Game of the Week. The loss drops them to 0-4 this season vs. Cincinnati (swept last weekend), who I am firmly committed to NOT believing in. Yes, the Reds are now 19-15, but this was a club projected for the bottom of the MLB standings prior to the start of the year. Fortunately, tonight we have Johnny Cueto on the bump for San Fran, in an "immediate revenge" spot against the pitcher who beat him his last time out, Scott Feldman.

You might wonder why I'm so excited about playing Cueto against Feldman here given the latter threw a CG shutout (four-hitter) when they faced off on Sunday. Well, I consider that performance from Feldman to be nothing more than a "mirage" as in his previous start, he'd lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs. This also isn't Great American Ballpark. As I said in yday's analysis, the Reds have benefited from a home-heavy schedule to start the year, one that has seen them play 22 of their first 33 games at home. That's the highest percentage of home games for any team in baseball. On the other hand, the Giants played 21 of their first 35 games on the road. That's certainly not the only reason they've struggled, but it's definitely a contributing factor.

Cueto had more strikeouts than Feldman on Sunday (10 to 5) and is certainly the more accomplished pitcher here. His only two "bad" starts thus far have come at Colorado and Arizona, two of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league. His two home starts were both quality and more importantly for our purposes, wins as well. The Reds are Cueto's former team remember, so pride is in play here as he certainly doesn't want to lose to them twice in a row. These "immediate revenge" (same two pitchers facing off in B2B starts) are among my favorite spots in baseball handicapping as it's really hard to beat the same pitcher twice in a row. Five of the Giants' 12 wins this year have come w/ Cueto on the hill. 8* San Francisco

8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Any disadvantage Minnesota might have here by virtue of Cleveland being off yday is mitigated by two factors. One, they themselves got an "extra" off day when Tuesday's game at Chicago was rained out. Two, they have Ervin Santana on the bump. Save for his last start, Santana has been spectacular this year. And even after allowing six runs to Boston on Sunday, his ERA and WHIP are still 1.72 and 0.787, respectively. That tells you right there just how good the first six starts were (more on those in a bit!). Minnesota also has revenge here as they got swept at home by Cleveland last month. With Santana pitching, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 

Santana did pitch against Cleveland in last month's series. He allowed only one run and four hits in six innings, leaving w/ a 2-1 lead. Sadly, the bullpen failed to protect that lead and the end result was a 6-2 loss. But, clearly, not Santana's fault. Outside of the last start, that's the only other time the Twins have lost this year w/ Santana pitching. He was 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts heading into Sunday, allowing 1 or 0 ER every time out. All told, he allowed just three runs in 41 IP, which is obviously phenomenal. It's not like Cleveland has been hitting well of late either; they are batting a collective .227 the L7 games and that's even after scoring a total of 13 runs in their previous two games. Before that, they'd been held to three runs or fewer seven consecutive times. So this is an ideal matchup for Santana, who is only allowing 4.02 hits per nine innings already. Opponents are batting just .135 against him, an AL best. 

It's not just Santana, the entire Twins team is surprising. They got me last night, beating the White Sox 7-6, and have now won 9 of 13. An offense led by Miguel Sano has scored a total of 20 runs in the L3 games alone and that means trouble for embattled Indians starter Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ an unsightly 9.94 ERA and 2.052 WHIP at home. Cleveland is coming off a disappointing 4-5 road trip here and only managed a split against the two worst teams in the American League, Kansas City and Toronto. Their lineup has been hit by injuries and there's the possibility as many as three regulars will miss tonight's game. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Hey - the Giants actually won a game! They came from behind (scored four runs in the 9th) to beat the Mets yday afternoon and put to bed a five-game losing streak. Coming off that emotional high, tonight is a GREAT spot to take them as they return home seeking revenge against a Reds club that swept them in embarrassing fashion last weekend. In Cincy, San Fran was outscored 31-5, which was just a stunning result. Including what happened in that series, the Reds have surprised by winning 8 of their last 10 games. But let's not forget the preseason projection for this team as they were forecasted to be the 2nd worst team in baseball, ahead of only San Diego. I know that the Giants, ironically enough, currently own the worst record in baseball. But, this is a clear cut case of being able to "buy low & sell high" at the same time. 

A variety of issues, injuries among them, have contributed to this shockingly poor start by the Giants. But a win like the one they had yday certainly can have a carryover effect. Being back at home should help too. Of their 35 games played so far, only 14 have taken place here at AT&T Park. For the Reds, it's been just the opposite. Out of their 33 games played, only 11 have taken place on the road. The home vs. road effect should also have a significant bearing on tonight's starting pitching matchup. While still winless, San Fran's Ty Blach pitched well both times he's started here at home. His ERA and WHIP are 1.50 and 0.833 respectively as he's allowed only two runs and seven hits in 12 IP. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has worked twice on the road and the results have been very ugly (11.25 ERA, 2.25 WHIP). Both starts were in St. Louis and he allowed 10 runs in just eight innings of work. 

Now Blach was hammered last week at Great American Ballpark, giving up 10 runs in just three innings. But, as I just mentioned, he's been a different pitcher at home. Aside from the two big outputs vs. SF last weekend, the Reds' offense has been held to five runs or fewer in the other eight of its last 10 games. Arroyo was by no means dominant in his start against the Giants last weekend as he allowed three runs in just 5 1/3. I feel that this weekend is just "screaming" for the Giants to get back on track. 10* San Francisco

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to make this play Wednesday, but Mother Nature would not allow it. With the same starting pitchers scheduled for Thursday, I'm sticking w/ it. The White Sox took an early 2-0 lead in Tuesday's series opener, but from there it was all downhill as the Twins scored the game's final seven runs. It was two big innings from the visitors, a three-run fourth and a four-run sixth. That result has to be especially disappointing for Chicago as Minnesota was w/o both Brian Dozier (injured) and Miguel Sano (suspended). Now losers of four in a row, the White Sox will try and get back on track here w/ lefty Derek Holland on the mound. He seems to be a more reliable option compared to Tuesday's starter Mike Pelfrey and the Twins are going with Phil Hughes, whose 5-1 team start record is quite misleading given that he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. I'm on the home team here.

The White Sox, admittedly, have had their issues offensively. They finished w/ only four hits in the series opener, but I feel it's likely they get things going here at Hughes' expense. Hughes is a low strikeout pitcher (just 21 K's) and he's allowed at least four runs in half of his six starts this year. He's coming off a season-high in innings pitched (6 2/3) his last time out, so don't be surprised to see him regress tonight. The Twins, despite having a winning record, have actually been outscored this year and prior to this series had gotten their "lunch handed to them" in a pair of ugly losses to the Red Sox (outscored 28-7). Behind Hughes, I really don't trust a Minnesota 'pen that has a 4.79 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the year.

Holland already faced Hughes once this year and was outdueled in a 3-1 loss. But save for one bad start at Yankee Stadium, Holland has been the more consistent of tonight's two starting pitchers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts and in those five he's gone at least six innings while allowing five or fewer hits! Last time out, he held the Royals to just two runs (one earned) on three hits over 6 2/3 IP, a game the White Sox won 8-3. Holland struck out seven in the win, which is one-third of the number of K's Hughes has for the year. Over his L3 starts, Holland has produced a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The White Sox have won all three times. 10* Chi White Sox

6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Kansas City has taken the first two of this three-game set here at Tropicana Field, but the Rays' Chris Archer should put a stop to that Weds night. Archer was actually the biggest money-losing starter in all of basball in 2016 (-15.6 units), but I wisely called for a bounce back this year. The season started out well for Archer as the team won each of his first four starts. But they've since lost the last three. Only one of those losses can be pinned on Archer, however, and I see him having little difficulty shutting down what has been MLB's worst offense over the first month-plus. The Rays were sloppy in a 7-3 loss Monday night, committing four errors and striking out 16 times. Then last night saw them blow a four-run lead and lose in extra innings. Clean up the mistakes and Archer will take care of the rest! 

It's very unusual to see KC score seven runs in B2B games. As I already mentioned, they have been - by far - the worst offensive team in baseball this year. They are not only dead last in runs scored, but they're at least 25 runs behind every other team but one (Giants). Furthermore, they rank last in team batting average (.215) and OBP (.278). They're 29th in slugging (.340). Coming into this series, they weren't even batting .200 on the road and had just two wins away from Kauffman Stadium. They did sweep one series last month (at home vs. the Angels), but other than that, they've not won three straight games at any other point this season. So this should be another strong outing from Archer, who struck out 11 batters his last time out. 

Tampa raced out to an early 7-3 lead early last night, but could not score over the final six innings (game went 12). In years past, we became accustomed to seeing that kind of dominance from the Royals' pen, but not this year as that group is just 3-8. The Rays, who have outscored their opponents this year, "should have" a better record but have blown 13 leads. The good news for tonight is that w/ the KC bullpen overworked last night, the pressure will be on starter Jason Hammel, who has a 5.53 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in six starts (1-5 TSR). He has not won on the road since last July. The Rays have lost three in a row, but are a perfect 2-0 this year when on that long of a skid. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think it's fair to say that both of these AL Central teams have been a bit surprising through the first 30 games. Minnesota lost 103 games in 2016 (only team in MLB w/ 100+ losses), but has started out this season by playing slightly better than .500 ball (15-14). The White Sox are .500 "on the nose," but that's only after being swept in Baltimore over the weekend. Run differential says the White Sox have been the better team thus far as they've outscored opponents (+9) while the Twins have not (-8). Thus I can't really understand while the road team would even be a slight favorite here as it's not as if they come into this three-game set playing well. At home, they were outscored 28-7 the previous two games by Boston.

Admittedly, Chicago's starter in this game, Mike Pelfrey, isn't exactly awe-inspiring. This will be just his 4th start of 2017, but at least he's gotten progressively better over the course of the previous three. He went a season-best 5 1/3 innings his last time out and allowed just three runs. His strikeout numbers need to improve, which was always the problem when he pitched for Minnesota. Fortunately for him, the Twins have struck out 10 or more times in three of the past four ballgames. The White Sox should be highly motivated to be back at home tonight following a 10-game road trip. So far, they're outscoring visitors by 1.6 rpg here at Guaranteed Rate Field (not making that name up!). 

Ironically, the Twins will be starting a former member of the White Sox here. That would be Hector Santiago, who has actually pitched pretty well this year, but has little to show for it. Case in point, when he faced his former team last month, he tossed seven shutout innings of six-hit ball, yet Minnesota still lost the game, 3-1. Overall, these teams have split six head to head matchups this year, so again it's looking like a great value on the home side. Rarely do the Twins ever close as a road favorite. While they may get Brian Dozier back in the lineup tonight, he's only hitting .229 for the year. Dozier could not come close to replacing the potential lost production from Miguel Sano, who may get suspended for this game due to his role in a previous bench clearing brawl. The White Sox have gone 8-3 against lefties so far in 2017 and I like them to take tonight's series opener. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams met LY in the ALCS, but it's become clear to me that only one has a chance of making it back there in 2017. Despite losing yday's series opener, that would be the team that won LY's ALCS, Cleveland. We may have to pay a premium here, but there's a clear pitching mismatch on Tuesday w/ Carlos Carrasco being opposed by Mike Bolsinger. Bolsinger is a spot starter, only being turned to because Aaron Sanchez is still dealing w/ a blister on his finger. Carrasco not only has a 2.18 ERA, but a superb 0.822 WHIP in his six starts so far. The Tribe will obviously need to start hitting, something they've not always done for Carrassco this year, but Bolsinger being on the hill should provide them that opportunity. 

Yesterday aside, it has not been a great start to the season for the Blue Jays. Due to several key free agent losses, they were expected to take a tumble down the standings in 2017, but that tumble has turned into a freefall as their record is just 12-20 through 32 games, which is second worst in the American League. Furthermore, they have a run differential of -21, which is tied for third worst in the American League. They've only gotten to play 13 home games so far and their five home victories are tied for the fewest in all of baseball. They're just 3-9 off a win. As a big league starter, Bolsinger is just 8-16 w/ a 4.61 ERA in 37 career appearances. I envision tonight being the spot where Cleveland's offense finally gets back on track.

The Tribe shouldn't need a ton of offense w/ Carrasco on the bump. He has won all three of his road starts this season, posting a 1.83 ERA, the second lowest among all American League starters away from home. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all six starts and had he gotten one more out in the first start of the year, then he'd be 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts. What's perhaps most impressive w/ Carrasco is the fact he has allowed six hits or fewer in every start! He had control problems in one start (4.16 vs. Detroit), but other than that, his KW ratio is 34-3 (39-8 overall). 8* Cleveland

10* Oakland (10:05 ET): I've readily admitted that the A's getting the "sharper dollars" for their weekend set w/ Detroit confounded me. It happened in all three games and they came away w/ two wins, both made possible by the typical meltdowns from the Tigers bullpen. However, here they'll get my endorsement due to falling into one of my favorite MLB handicapping situations, that being seeking revenge for a previous sweep. The Angels took all three games when these AL West rivals last met, which was at the end of April. However, two of the games were decided by one runs (identical 2-1 scores) and the truth of the matter is that the Halos haven't been that great since that series. They've lost four of five coming into tonight. 

One of the games in the previous series between these two featured a Ricky Nolasco-Kendall Graveman pitching duel. Those two starters square off again in Monday's opener. Nolasco allowed just one run and three hits in 5 2/3 IP vs. Oakland on 4.27, but last time out he gave up four runs and eight hits in just 4 1/3 as the Angels lost 8-7 to the Mariners. Nolasco, who battled cramping in the loss to Seattle, has been a lot worse on the road thus far, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP. The Halos' offense has also suffered on the road, scoring only 3.2 runs per game while batting a collective .226. Not surprisingly then, the team's record is just 6-11 outside of Anaheim. While I've pointed to Oakland's poor run differential in the past, note that the Angels have been outscored by 20 runs themselves this seaosn.

This is actually the third meeting of the year between Nolasco and Graveman. Graveman took the first, here in Oakland, part of a four-game series the teams ended up splitting. So, again, you can see how homefield advantage matters to the two starters. Despite the differing results, Graveman posted identical stat lines in the two starts against the Angels, allowing only 2 ER in 6 IP both times. He has a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Halos. Oakland's offense has also been a bit more prolific compared to LA's in recent days. I think a real key here is the fact Nolasco has allowed multi-HR's in four of his six starts so far. That's definitely not good. I'm not a buyer in the A's over the long-term, but I definitely like them in tonight's spot. 10* Oakland

8* Over Nationals/Orioles (7:05 ET): The annual Beltway Series is one of the highlights of the Interleague campaign and this year sees both the Nationals and Orioles currently in fine form. In fact, both have won two-thirds of their games, ranking them right at the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore just swept the White Sox here at Camden Yards over the weekend while Washington had a four-game win streak snapped Sunday by Philadelphia. For Monday's series opener, I expect plenty of runs as we have a high-scoring NL team playing in an AL park, which means they get to benefit from having the designated hitter in the lineup. Already, the Nats lead all of baseball in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. That's w/ the pitcher coming up to bat in every game.

Given the impressive offensive production and the addition of the DH spot to the batting order, just imagine what the Nats should do here against embattled O's starter Kevin Gausman. Through seven starts, Gausman has a 7.55 ERA and 1.935 WHIP. He'd allowed five or more runs in three consecutive starts before getting ejected in the second inning his last time out. Prior to getting ejected (hit Xander Bogaerts), Gausman had already allowed a run. He has a poor 5.63 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Oh, by the way, not only do the Nats get to use the DH here, they'll also welcome Bryce Harper back to the lineup. Harper, who leads all NL hitters in walks,  runs scored and OBP, missed the entire series against the Phillies, but the team still averaged 5.0 rpg w/o him. He could be the DH here. 

Baltimore is no slouch offensively, although like Washington, many of their recent games have stayed Under the total. They shut out the White Sox (4-0) Sunday, but this is - clearly - a far more formidable offense that they'll be facing here. At the same time, the Orioles have tended to fare well against Nats' starter Gio Gonzalez. In nine career starts vs. the O's, Gonzalez is just 1-5 w/ a 3.88 ERA. Washington's bullpen is exactly setting the world on fire either w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.520 WHIP on the road. Gonzalez and the bullpen will also be tested more by having to face an American League lineup. 8* Over Nationals/Orioles

10* Under Yankees/Cubs (8:05 ET): The Yankees have come to Wrigley Field this weekend and solidified that they aren't to be taken lightly. They've won both games here and now find themselves in a position for what would still be considered a surprising sweep, if they can win again Sunday night. Friday afternoon saw the team wearing pinstripes stun the Cubs w/ a three-run ninth (had been shutout the first eight innings). That marked the first time in the L3 seasons that Chicago had blown a multi-run lead entering the ninth inning. Last night, it was a hot start by the Yankees bats that doomed the World Series Champs. A five-run first inning was the difference as NY won 11-6. Tonight, I look for a lower scoring affair as we have two strong starting pitchers going. Take the Under.

Luis Severino goes here for the Yanks. The team is only 2-3 when he pitches, but that record fails to paint an accurate picture of his overall performance. His WHIP is 0.949 and he's been hurt by a lack of run support recently. Of course, a lack of run support would be just fine here. While Severino did allow five runs his last time out, he'd allowed just six in his previous three starts where his KW ratio was 27-3. The home run ball has hurt him some, but luckily the wind is expected to be blowing in tonight at Wrigley. This will be his first time facing the Cubs and that's a good thing because his ERA is 3.20 in his career when facing an opponent for the very first time. Behind Severino is of course one of the top bullpens in the game. 

After yesterday, the Cubs are in dire need of a strong starting pitching performance. Fortunately, they have Jon Lester going here. In three home starts, Lester has a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. He has been a bit shaky overall of late, but in his first three starts of the season he allowed only two runs in 18 IP. Remember that the Yanks lineup should be theoretically weaker here w/ the loss of designated hitter. If the Cubs are able to get a lead and hold on here, it would be beneficial as we then have a shot at avoiding having to play the bottom of the ninth, which many times can be the difference between a win and a loss in betting MLB totals. The vast majority of the Yankees offense in this series has come in just two innings, the ninth Friday and the first Saturday. Lester is a clear upgrade over yday's Cubs starter, Brett Anderson, who may or may not be hurt. 10* Under Yankees/Cubs

6* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Typically, I don't play this large of a favorite, but I'll make an exception here as Saturday lines up to be an incredibly easy win for the Orioles. I don't know how he does it, but skipper Buck Showalter continues to defy the critics and the advanced stats, almost on a yearly basis. Right now, he's got the O's battling w/ the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East and he's done it despite missing LY's top starting pitcher, Chris Tillman. One of the big reasons for the team's success has been tonight's starter, Dylan Bundy, stepping up in a major way. Bundy is 4-1 so far (5-1 TSR) w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.034 WHIP. Comparing him to White Sox starter Dylan Covey seems like a "no-contest." After taking yday's series opener 4-2, Baltimore should have no problem winning again tonight at Camden Yards.

The White Sox being over .500 at this point is definitely a surprise. Dealing Chris Sale to Boston in the offseason signaled this was to be a rebuilding year and most projected them to finish last in the AL Central. However, thanks to some surprisingly good starting pitching (fewest # of runs allowed in the American League!), the team has stayed afloat over the season's first month. That said, Covey has had little to do w/ success on that side of the ledger. Through four starts, he has a 7.29 ERA and 1.762 WHIP. He's been hit hard in both road starts thus far, giving up a total of 14 runs in just 11 2/3 IP. He's allowed five home runs as well. Last time out, he gave up six runs to the worst offense in all of MLB (Kansas City), which is clearly not a good sign - at all.

Meanwhile, Bundy is 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Aside from one start (on 4.26 vs. Tampa Bay), he hasn't allowed any home runs. Interestingly, this will be his 1st time facing a non-division opponent this year. But he's been even more lights out here in Camden w/ a 1.33 ERA and 0.836 WHIP and the team has won all three times he's started. Tonight is a very favorable matchup for him as the White Sox are among the lowest scoring teams in the American League and are also bottom five in baseball in both slugging and OBP. 6* Baltimore

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): #ImWithTeheran - The Braves were humiliated in their new ballpark last night, losing 10-0 to the Cardinals. But they have Julio Teheran on the bump tonight and this is a pitcher long overdue to start recording positive results. Last year, pitching on a 93-loss team, Teheran finished w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set as he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. The numbers have dipped a bit this year and his TSR is just 2-4, but I still see better things on the horizon for him. It's telling that the Braves would be favored against the Cards, even if it's ever so slightly, for a second night in a row. Yesterday aside, St. Louis has been nothing but mediocre thus far and they are the worst fielding team in baseball.

Right now, the Redbirds are down not one, but two starting outfielders. Stephen Piscotty is on the DL w/ a right hamstring strain. Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler remains day to day w/ a shoulder. Considering how poor the team has been in the field so far, being w/o regulars is pretty frightening. The absence of both from the lineup obviously makes Teheran's job that much easier as well. Teheran did start the season out strong, allowing just 2 ER in his first three starts (19 IP). But B2B starts here at SunTrust Park have been tough on him, especially the last one was as he was roughed up for six runs by the Mets. But that was a bad spot for him as he was starting opposite the same pitcher for a second straight outing and had won the first matchup. I anticipate him bouncing back here. Teheran has a 3.13 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. The Braves won the only other time this season they were coming off a game where they'd allowed 10+ runs. 

St. Louis counters w/ Mike Leake, who admittedly had himself an excellent April. But I'm not counting on that lasting. This is a starter who was 9-12 w/ a 4.69 ERA last year. SunTrust Park has not been kind to pitchers so far in its young existence and this will obviously be Leake's first time working here. Even after winning by 10 runs yday, the Cards are still being outscored by a full run per game on the road this season. While Leake did outduel Max Scherzer earlier in the year, he's also been fortunate to face Cincinnati twice. I look for the Braves hitters to bounce back tonight as they are still averaging a healthy 7.1 rpg the L7 games despite being shutout Friday. 10* Atlanta

10* Texas (10:10 ET): This play certainly represents a "change of course" from recent days when I was BACKING the Mariners. Why the change? Well, the M's previous series (against the Angels) saw them SEEKING revenge for a prior three-game sweep. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. It was them that swept the Rangers back on 4.14-4.16 here at Safeco Field. As I made clear in my analysis for all picks on Seattle in the last series, this is one of my favorite spots to take a team, particularly in a division matchup. Over the long grind that is the MLB season, it's simply too difficult to beat the same opponent, day after day. With Yu Darvish on the bump, tonight will certainly be Texas' best shot at achieving a victory this weekend.

Coming into 2017, the Rangers were earmarked for regression by a lot of people, myself included. Last year's 95-win team was extremely fortunate as they only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the season, relying heavily on a 36-11 record in one-run games. That was the best such record in MLB HISTORY! This year has seen them start out a disappointing 12-17 and that's including the win yday afternoon in Houston. Sobering news was handed down this week in the form of a Cole Hamels' oblique injury that will keep him out of action for EIGHT weeks. But the team still has Darvish at the front end of the rotation and he's posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.061 WHIP through six starts so far. He did NOT face Seattle in the previous series. Last time out, he held the Angels to only two runs (one earned) and three hits over 6 IP. He also matched a season-high w/ 10 K's. It was the fourth time this year that Darvish has allowed two runs or less. 

Both of these teams scored double digit runs yesterday. I had the Mariners as they routed the Angels 11-3 to take that series. But having to counter Darvish w/ Yovani Gallardo here makes for a tough matchup. Gallardo has allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts, never making it past the sixth inning. While he hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball thus far, it is worth noting that Texas has hit 12 HR's in its last five games. Seattle has lost four of Gallardo's five starts and that certainly has a lot to do w/ the pitcher himself as he's posted poor overall numbers (5.08 ERA, 1.553 WHIP). Look for the Rangers to come in and "steal one" tonight. 10* Texas

10* Arizona (8:40 ET): There has been a pitching change here (for Colorado), but that has no bearing on the play. Truth be told, I was excited to go against Tyler Anderson in an "immediate revenge" spot for Zack Greinke. Those two squared off last week at Chase Field w/ Anderson and the Rockies coming out ahead 7-6, but only because the D'backs bullpen once again let Greinke and the team down. Note that over his last four starts, Greinke has now faced the same two opponents twice in a row. I took him in a similar spot on 4.24 against San Diego where he was seeking revenge against Jhoulys Chacin and sure enough he came through w/ a dominant effort. While the removal of Anderson as the starter for Colorado changes things up a bit here, truth is that German Marquez represents a clear downrgrade in the pitching department for the home team.

I call Marquez a "clear downgrade" even though last week he tossed six shutout innings against these D'backs. But that performance was a "far cry" from his first start of 2017 (here at Coors Field) when he was hit hard for eight runs in just four innings of work. Interestingly enough, the Rockies actually still LOST the game Marquez started in Arizona, 2-0 in extra innings. Will they score here at home? Probably. But Greinke should mitigate how much and Marquez figures to be a whole lot worse tonight. Greinke has allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts this year. Last week against the Rockies, he was victimized by the long ball (three solo HR's). That could be taken as a troubling sign going into the thin air of Coors Field, but he also has a 26-3 KW ratio his L3 starts, so I remain confident in his abilities.

Colorado is very fortunate to be in first place of the NL West right now. While 18-11 overall, they are a perfect 9-0 in one-run games! They won another last night, 3-2, over lowly San Diego. Meanwhile, Arizona has a vastly superior run differential (+29) compared to the Rockies (-1). While the offense has yet to really produce on the road this year, the D'backs still rank 2nd in MLB in runs scored, so they are well-suited to take care of business here in Denver. Arizona is the better team here and has a clear starting pitching edge tonight, making them severely mispriced. 10* Arizona

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): After cashing my 10* Game of the Week on them yday, I'll come right back w/ the Mariners again tonight. Really, one could make the case that the home team should be in a position to sweep their AL West rival here. The M's blew an early lead in the series opener and wound up losing in 11 innings. Last night was almost a bit of deja vu, but thankfully they were able to rally for an 8-7 victory. Some might call that "poetic justice" for an Angels team which leads all of MLB w/ 11 come from behind victories. It would have been 12 had Seattle not scored four times in the bottom of the eighth yday. Again, Seattle was able to take an early edge (4-0), but the Halos struck w/ a six-run sixth. Tonight, I'll call for them to lead from start to finish.

Due to numerous injuries in their starting rotation, Los Angeles is forced to go w/ Alex Meyer again here. The spot starter failed to impress in his first outing, which came 4.21 at Toronto. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings and gave up a pair of runs while walking more batters (4) than he struck out (3). Targeting these spot starters is typically a good idea. Especially w/ Seattle now averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg at home. While they've struggled mightily on the road, the M's are 7-4 here at Safeco Field. The Angels are just 6-10 on the road and have been outscored overall this season (-10 run differential). It's not even like Meyer has been effective at a lower level. Through four starts at Triple A affiliate Salt Lake, his ERA is 6.16.

Seattle will hope that their starter, Ariel Miranda, can turn in an outing reminiscent of his last one. Last Friday in Cleveland, he helped beat the Indians (was +175 on the money line!) by allowing only one run on two hits over 5 1/3 IP. He was even more effective in his previous home start where he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. Miranda has never lost to the Angels in three career tries and has a solid 3.71 ERA against them. With a 0.978 WHIP his L3 outings, he's clearly the better starting option here and thus I see the Mariners taking the series. 10* Seattle

8* Under White Sox/Royals (2:15 ET): Every game in this series thus far has stayed Under the total. That shouldn't come as a surprise given we're dealing w/ the two of the lowest scoring offenses in all of baseball, including the one (KC) that is - by far - the lowest. It was the Royals that scored six times in a win yesterday, but considering they are still averaging less than 3.0 rpg, regression on that side of the ledger is to be expected this afternoon. Fortunately, they will have Ian Kennedy on the bump and he gives the team an excellent shot at a repeat of what Nate Karns did to the White Sox last night. That would be hold them scorless over six innings. Kennedy might be winless, but he has a 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP, making this a pretty easy Under call in my book.

It is downright criminal that Kennedy still does not have a win after five starts (1-4 TSR). He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and has allowed two or fewer in each of the last four. His last time out, he allowed just 2 ER in 5 2/3 IP, but sadly the bullpen blew things by allowing four runs in the eighth. Sadly, the four runs scored by the Royals in that game were the most we've seen from them in any Kennedy start this season! They'd only scored three TOTAL in his first four outings. But that said, I still expect Kennedy to hold up his "end of the bargain" today. As mentioned earlier, the White Sox didn't do much of anything at the plate last night. Their lone run scored came in the ninth inning after being held to just one hit through the first eight frames. It was their second time being held to just one run by Royals pitching in this series. 

Meanwhile, the Royals offense is way behind the rest of the pack, not only in runs scored (30th), but in all other key offensive categories. In addition to having scored 21 fewer runs than every other team, they are also dead last in team batting average, on base percentage and slugging! They were shutout in their lone loss in this series (6-0 Tuesday), so there's certainly some hope here for White Sox starter Derek Holland, who has allowed 2 ER in four of his five starts anyway. Before breaking through in the sixth inning last night, the Royals hadn't scored in 15 innings. Not surprisingly, KC is one of the top Under teams in baseball this season and the White Sox aren't far behind (2nd and 4th, respectively). The Royals are 1-8 in day games for a reason and that's they're are batting a collective .199 w/ just 2.1 rpg scored. Lefties are just 1 for 11 off Holland so far this season while righties aren't much better at .216 overall. Of course, if Kennedy can do his job, there's a chance we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth here, which is always huge w/ an Under bet. 8* Under White Sox/Royals

8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The Pirates lost again to the Reds yday, 7-2. The loss drops them to 1-5 head to head w/ the Reds this season and a confounding 11-14 against them since the start of last season. They are now actually below Cincy in the NL Central standings. Given how the Reds have performed overall the L2 seasons, these results should leave the Bucs feeling quite embarrassed. But I was on Pittsburgh in that one win this year over the Reds (Tuesday) and I'll back them again this afternoon as they send Ivan Nova to the bump. Nova has a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through five starts, so he should be able to "put to bed" this embarrassing string of results against Cincinnati, a team that should not be dominating ANYONE quite frankly.

Nova, somehow, only has a 3-2 TSR despite those impressive numbers listed above. One of the losses (of course!) was to the Reds, back on April 12th. That was his worst showing of the season as he allowed four runs (three earned) in six innings. But Nova left nothing to chance his last time out, tossing a CG shutout w/ no walks (only three hits) at Miami. Strikeout numbers are up for him (14 L2 starts) and his KW ratio for the year is now 22-1! He was actually named N.L. Pitcher of the Month for his efforts, which included another complete game at St. Louis. So given the last two times Nova has pitched away from home, he's gone the distance, I'm pretty confident he'll get the job done here.

Meanwhile, my view of Reds' starter Tim Adelman is a lot less rosy. He was roughed up for six runs in his last start, which ended up being a 7-5 loss to the Cardinals. It was just his 2nd start of 2017 and neither time have the Reds one. Already, Adelman has allowed four home runs. The Pirates offense has shown an ability to put runs on the board, twice scoring 12 in the L6 games. One of those was of course Tuesday here in Cincy. I've got to go back to the Reds' awful outlook at the start of the season here and I just can't see them beating the Pirates again, not w/ Nova on the hill. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): With an early 2-0 lead and James Paxton on the bump, one would have though the Mariners would be a "shoo-in" last night. I certainly did. But it was not to be as the team wound up dropping its third straight, this one in extra innings, 6-4 to the Angels. Though he walked five batters, Paxton allowed only two runs over his 5 1/3 IP, just one of them earned. But the M's actually needed to score in the home half of the ninth just to force extra innings. They lost when Mike Trout was able to score from first base on a double from Albert Pujols in the top of the 11th. The loss dropped them to 0-4 head to head vs. the Angels this season. Can't see that continuing, not w/ the fact that the Halos (despite a winning record) have actually been outscored this season. 

Ricky Nolasco will pitch this evening for Los Angeles and he'll be leaned on heavily. That's because a total of six relievers were used yday due to Matt Shoemaker being ineffective. In addition to not being able to rely much on the bullpen, Nolasco should also be concerned w/ an offense which averages only 3.0 rpg away from home while batting a collective .219. Considering Nolasco has yet to last longer than six innings in any of his five starts this season, I see a problem for the Angels. In six career starts vs. Seattle, Nolasco has just one win and a 4.33 ERA. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz have combined to homer five times off him in just 33 total AB's. I'd also like to point out that the Angels are very fortunate to already have 11 come from behind wins this season, last night included. 

The Mariners will counter w/ Hisashi Iwakuma. In the past, Iwakuma had been a reliable #2 man in the rotation, behind Felix Hernandez. But King Felix is on the DL and Iwakuma hasn't been as effective as he once was. Still, facing an Angels lineup that often struggles to score on the road shouldn't be too tall of a task. In 20 career starts vs. LA, he's posted a 2.76 ERA and he's 6-2 against them here at Safeco Field. Also, Iwakuma is off his best start of the year, having allowed just one unearned run across 5 2/3 IP last week in Detroit. Aside from one bad showing vs. Texas, he's allowed 3 ER or less every other time out. While this may be Seattle's third three-game losing streak of 2017 already, they've yet to lose four in a row and I'll call for them to keep that streak alive tonight. 10* Seattle

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): I am by no means ready to buy into Colorado, despite a 16-10 start which has them currently atop the National League West. That overall record is a byproduct of a being a very fortunate 8-0 in one run games so far. In all other contests, they've been outscored by 14 runs. Their last game, a 2-0 loss at Arizona Sunday, brings back a familiar criticism of this team and that's they rarely produce offensively on the road. The bottom line is the so-called "Coors Field effect" has long skewed perception of this franchise's offensive capabilities. For the record, the club is 5-9 the L3 seasons after suffering a shutout loss. San Diego won't get my endorsement too many times this season, but here's an instance where they do. 

Petco Park is infamously at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors Field in terms of its friendliness towards hitters. Tonight's starter for the home team took full advantage of that in his first start of the year here. Back on April 21st, Trevor Cahill threw seven solid innings for the Padres, allowing just one run on three hits in a 5-3 win over Miami. He wasn't nearly as effective his last time out, but that was in Arizona, a park similar to Coors in its penchant for producing high-scoring games. While Cahill's career marks against Colorado aren't exactly awe-inspiring, getting to face them here at home is a bonus. The Rockies, who are hitting just .224 on the road w/ 3.5 rpg scored, managed only 11 runs total (four game series) in their last visit to San Diego. Remember, earlier this year, the Padres did take two of three from the first place Rockies and that was in Denver! 

Tyler Chatwood gave up four runs in one of those losses to San Diego and he'll be the starter again tonight for Colorado. He'd also previously allowed seven runs to the usually weak-hitting Padres in his final start against them of 2016. Now both of those came at Coors where Chatwood has had to pitch his L2 starts (allowed total of nine runs). But even w/ him owning a CG shutout (of the Giants) on the road this season, I don't have the righty faring all that well tonight. Something else to consider is that this is the Padres' first home game following a seven-game trip. Only the Braves (8) have gotten to play fewer home games than the Padres' nine and they have a winning record (5-4) so far here at Petco Park. 8* San Diego

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners have largely been a disappointment this year as they're only 11-15 and were just handed "their lunch" by Cleveland Sunday in 12-4 loss. But, back at home w/ James Paxton on the bump, I like 'em. Seattle has been a much better team this year within the confines of Safeco Field, going 6-3 including a perfect 5-0 when in the -125 to -175 price range. Paxton is responsible for two of those wins as he has yet to allow a single run here in 15 IP. In fact, he's allowed just six hits. Last time out marked the fourth time in five starts that Paxton didn't allow a single run as he blanked the Tigers for seven innings, giving up just four hits. With a 39-6 KW ratio this year, he looks like the real deal and I look for him to dominate the Angels Tuesday. 

The Angels have won six of seven overall. They just took two of three over the weekend in Texas and what's most impressive about the current win streak is that it's come in spite of the offense not scoring many runs. Three of the wins came by identical 2-1 scores and overall the team has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its past eight contests. So that doesn't bode well for facing Paxton. Nor does Michael Shoemaker's last start against the Mariners. In an earlier series played between these teams this year, Shoemaker surrendered seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Now the Angels still won, 10-9, but that was due to a stunning seven-run rally in the home half of the ninth. It's a result I'm sure the Mariners remember coming into this three-game set. 

Despite being a game over .500, the Halos have actually been outscored by 11 runs this year. They did sweep the Mariners in Anaheim last month, but two of the wins were by one run. As I often say, it is difficult to continue beating the same opponent, particularly if it's a division rival. Led by Paxton, who the Angels did not face in the previous series, the Mariners have the edge tonight. Opponents are hitting just .179 against Paxton so far this season and the Angels best player (Mike Trout) is just 2 for 20 lifetime against him w/ 10 K's. Shoemaker was lucky to avoid the loss his last time facing the M's and I have to wonder about his psyche here, pitching in the place where he suffered a skull fracture last September. Seattle is a perfect 3-0 this season after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. 10* Seattle

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just can't believe the trouble the Bucs are having w/ the Reds, not only this season, but dating back to 2016 as well. Last night's 4-3 loss (in extra innings) drops them to 0-4 head to head against their division rivals so far this year and 10-13 (-8.7 units) since the start of last year. Given the Reds' overall level of ineptitude during this time, this is pretty shocking. As is the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole still being winless all-time (nine starts) against Cincy after last night. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Glasnow, who likewise has not fared well in this NL Central rivalry. But I'll continue to look to "buck the trend" here as Pittsburgh is certainly "due" to beat what is still a "lesser opponent." That lesser opponent had not won B2B games in three weeks prior to last night.

In the last series between these teams, Glasnow did not fare well as he allowed five runs in just 1 2/3 innings. But he hasn't lost since as the team is 3-0 his L3 starts. Admittedly, that record is in spite of some shoddy numbers from Glasnow himself, but he and the team will gladly take the results, especially considering that two of the outings came against the Cubs! The other was against the Yankees, so that's +4.6 units if you happened to bet Glasnow all three times. Apparently, oddsmakers have not learned their lesson here, installing Glasnow as a slight dog on the ML. Despite the way this rivalry has leaned the L2 seasons, if Glasnow can come out ahead of the likes of the Cubs & Yankees, he should be able to beat the lowly Reds as well. Again, I point to the preseason projections which had Cincy as the second worst team in all of baseball, ahead of only San Diego. 

Just 58-85 off a win since the start of last season, the Reds hand the baseball to veteran Scott Feldman tonight. It's been a surprisingly decent start to the year for Feldman, who was the club's Opening Day starter mind you (yikes!), but I'm certainly not confident that will last. Nor would I be too confident with this Reds offense. Prior to the GW hit, all their production last night came on one swing of the bat, a 3-run HR by Adam Duval. They also benefited mightily from two Pirates errors, one of them leading to the GW run being scored in the 10th. Cincy is only batting a collective .228 at Great American Ballpark so far. I like the Pirates at this price. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I'm gonna try w/ the Royals again even though they've now lost nine in a row and are 0-12 their last 12 games vs. the AL Central going back to last season. It's certainly looking like a rapid "fall from grace" for a club that's still only two years removed from winning the World Series. Their 7-16 record is baseball's worst as is their -37 run differential. They just failed to avenge another prior sweep here at home over the weekend, losing two to the Twins (rainout Saturday). Here, they welcome in a White Sox team that is surprisingly above .500 (cleaned house in offseason and were thought to be undertaking a massive rebuild). That's thanks to taking all three games from KC last week at U.S. Cellular Field. I anticipate a far different result here. 

It's not like the Royals were dominated by the Twins over the weekend. They, in fact, jumped out to leads in both games. The bullpen is clearly not what it once was, but maybe that's not a factor tonight w/ Jason Vargas getting the baseball. Vargas has been the Royals' one savior so far this season w/ a 3-1 team start record (they are 4-15 in all other games!). That one loss did come to Chicago last week as he gave up four runs in five innings of what ended up being an ugly 12-1 loss.  But prior to that poor effort, Vargas had started the season w/ three consecutive quality efforts and had allowed just one run in 20 2/3 IP overall! He has a 28-2 KW ratio so far and the home run he allowed to the White Sox Matt Davidson was the first he'd given up all year. White Sox hitters have not hit lefties well this season, turning in a .197 batting average while scoring only 2.9 runs per game.

Now offense has certainly been an issue for KC so far. They are dead last (by a lot) in terms of runs scored in all of MLB and with the White Sox having allowed the fewest # of runs in baseball, this might seem like a bad matchup. But that's where Chicago starter Dylan Covey comes in. Through three starts, Covey has a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. Yet somehow, the team has still managed to win twice! One of those was his last time out, against these Royals, where he lasted only four innings after giving up a pair of runs. So far, Covey has more walks than strikeouts (terrible sign!) and he allowed three home runs in a prior start against the Yankees. While the Royals have been terrible on the road thus far, they're at least 5-5 at Kauffman Stadium. They're due to start turning things around, at least a little bit. 8* Kansas City

10* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): The Pirates had a three-game win streak snapped yday (lost 10-3 at Miami) and now turn to a division rival that they've had some trouble with going back to 2016. That includes suffering a three-game sweep (at home!) earlier this year. While that scenario may not sound too promising on the surface, the opponent here is Cincinnati and I refuse to believe that the Bucs can't take care of business against a club that is projected to be among the very worst in MLB this season. Especially w/ ace Gerrit Cole on the bump for Monday's series opener. As I've often said, the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep) can be a strong angle in MLB betting, particularly when you're talking about division opponents. Great price on the road team tonight.

In addition to the revenge angle, Cole is a big reason I'm making this play. He's coming off four straight quality starts, but unfortunately has been a hard luck loser each of his L2 times out. Last Tuesday vs. Chicago, he allowed only an unearned run over 7 IP (just two hits!), but sadly, that was the difference in the game as the Pirates "forgot to score" themselves (lost 1-0). In his start prior to that one, Cole allowed only two runs, but lost 2-1 to St. Louis. Overall, he now sports a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 outings. Now the big worry here is that Cole is 0-6 in eight all-time starts vs. Cincinnati. To me, that makes little sense. Cole is a great pitcher and the Reds are a bad team. This confounding record is due to reverse itself, in my opinion. 

The lack of offense Cole has received recently should be rectified here thanks to a woeful Reds pitching staff. Up first is Amir Garrett, who was absolutely rocked his last time out as he gave up 10 runs in just 3 1/3 innings. He struck out only one batter and allowed three home runs. He had been much sharper in his first three outings, one of them against these Pirates, but I'm not buying a repeat of April 12th at PNC Park where he allowed only two runs and five hits across 6 2/3 IP. Cincy did win Sunday, 5-4 over St. Louis, but all that did was snap a four-game losing skid. Overall, the club has dropped 8 of its last 10. As I said earlier, outside of San Diego, this was projected to be the worst team in MLB this season. The Pirates finally get that elusive win over the Reds here and probably go on to dominate this series. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Boston (8:05 ET): This possible World Series preview has seen a split after two games w/ the Cubs winning 7-4 yesterday. For tonight's rubber match, it's a battle of southpaws w/ Kyle Hendricks taking on Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Cubs won yday and are 5-1 vs. LH starters this year, I favor the Red Sox here even w/ their scuffling offense. Interleague Play has typically gone the way of the Junior Circuit and in this case, Boston is a lofty 31-14 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. This looks like a GREAT value on them at Fenway as they are also 7-3 off a loss so far. 

Cubs starter Hendricks is off a gem as he tossed six scoreless innings in Pittsburgh last week. The team needed every bit of that as they only wound up prevailing 1-0. Hendricks hasn't proven to be that durable yet, however, never going longer than six full innings. He's only working on four days' rest here. Pittsburgh was his first quality start of the season. He's not fared too well in the past in IL play, posting a 3.94 ERA in nine tries. Also, the Cubs' bullpen has been used a lot in this series Jake Arrieta was ineffective Friday and John Lackey gave up four more runs Saturday. Facing a 4-3 deficit going into the seventh yday, the Cubs were able to rally thanks in part to the long ball, but I'm not sure they will be able to count on such good fortune again tonight (Red Sox also made four errors in yday's game!) 

Rodriguez is also coming off a strong start, one where he allowed only one hit over six scoreless innings! That was at Baltimore and likewise was his 1st quality outing of 2017. There were five walks and while control is a concern w/ him, the Cubs haven't exactly been drawing a ton of walks in this series. A big storyline in Beantown right now is that the Red Sox are 27th in MLB in runs scored after ranking 1st by a wide margin in 2016. Stop with this Big Papi nonsense. It's only a matter of time before the runs start coming as they actually rank second in team batting average (.273) and fifth in OBP (.334) despite missing several key contributors at the start of the season. I like the home team to take this series. 10* Boston

10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play this matchup last night, but it got rained out. Therefore, the analysis will remain largely the same. Maybe a day off is what the Royals needed to put this long losing streak of theirs (now at EIGHT games) to bed? Friday night, they appeared to be well on their way w/ a 3-0 lead after three innings and 4-2 entering the eighth. But that is when things went awry as B2B two-run doubles by the Twins' Miguel Sano and Joe Mauer spoiled the Royals' return home after a dreadful road trip. What's really frustrating about that final result (6-4 Twins) is that KC got a strong starting pitching performance from Ian Kennedy, who retired the first 10 batters. In fact, Minnesota had managed only two hits through the first seven innings. Sunday, the Royals hand the baseball to Jason Hammel, who was scheduled for Saturday.

Now Hammel is hardly off to a great start to 2017. In fact, his team start record is 0-4 w/ a 5.30 ERA and 1.768 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted just three innings and gave up three runs at Texas. But in his previous home start, he went six innings and allowed just one run against San Francisco. So that's definitely encouraging. Hammel also hasn't exactly gotten a ton of run support thus far (three runs or less in every game), so he could certainly use some help from the offense. The good news is that the four runs scored Friday showed signs of breaking out of a slump which has seen the KC lineup score two runs or fewer 9 of the past 10 games. Hammel is typically a strong pitcher at the start of the year as his 19 career wins in April are the most for any month.

Twins starter Phil Hughes has certainly not had a good time in the past pitching here at Kauffman Stadium. In seven career tries, his ERA is 5.49. While Hughes pitched well his last time out (in Texas), he certainly did not in his two starts prior to that one as he gave up a total of 10 runs in just nine total innings of work. He's yet another Twins starter w/ a low strikeout rate. The Twins finished w/ fewer hits than KC Friday night and I have to go back to the revenge angle here as the Royals were swept up in Minnesota earlier this month. It's just too hard to continue beating the same team on a daily basis, particularly if it's a division rival. 10* Kansas City

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After losing as big ML favorites in Friday night's series opener, the Tribe battled back to defeat the Mariners yday, 4-3. The game was interesting for a variety of reasons. First off, all seven runs were scored in the first inning. Cleveland held Seattle w/o a hit over the final eight frames, thanks to a masterful effort from Danny Salazar and the team's two ace relievers (Andrew Miller, Cody Allen). For the M's, they had a player (Boog Powell) make his MLB debut, though he didn't actually get up to bat. Of course, neither did the majority of Seattle's lineup. Another big league debut is Con tap for the road team today, this time a starting pitcher, Chase De Jong. I don't like the situation nor his chances against an Indians team that has won 8 of its last 11. 

Coming off a World Series appearance, it has not been the dominant start to the season that Cleveland had hoped for. But, as I just alluded to, they've started to get things going. So too has today's starter, Josh Tomlin. Tomlin was a disaster in his first two starts, but has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality outings. Last time out, he stood toe to toe w/ Houston's former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, giving up just 3 ER in 6 IP. He struck out six and walked none. In six career appearances vs. Seattle, he's gone 4-1 w/ a 3.32 ERA. His KW ratio is 37-5. Control has never been a concern with Tomlin has he's gone 35 consecutive starts w/o walking more than two batters. Last year saw him lead the American League in fewest walks per nine innings.

Tomlin shouldn't be too concerned w/ a Mariners lineup which is batting a collective .225 in road games. Obviously, they did little yday outside the first inning. On the flip side, I expect Cleveland's hitters to have their way w/ De Jong. Technically, this is not De Jong's big league debut as he's worked out of the bullpen twice. But it's his first start, a spot necessitated by Felix Hernandez going to the D.L. If this one comes down the bullpens, it's a no contest as Cleveland has one of the best in baseball thanks to Miller and Allen. Seattle relievers have been shaky all season, a big reason why the team is only 5-11 away from Safeco Field. 8* Cleveland

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yanks dealt the O's a major blow Friday in turning a 9-1 deficit into a 14-11 win. You have to feel that it's going to be tough for Baltimore to "get back up off the mat" after that result. What happened was a bevy of home runs from the team wearing pinstripes, five to be exact, the final one being a walkoff from Matt Holliday in the bottom half of the 10th. That results leaves the teams tied a top the American League East at 14-7 overall. But run differential doesn't lie and the fact that the Yanks are now a MLB-best +38 in that department (Baltimore only +6) certainly "means something." That something is that I'm backing the home team Saturday afternoon as they look to make it four in a row overall and run their record in the Bronx to 10-1! 

NY skipper Joe Girardi, like counterpart Buck Showalter, has been defying the advanced stats for years now. They've not had a single losing season during his tenure (2008-), but what's most impressive about that is that three of the past four seasons have seen the club be outscored by its opponents. But, as referenced earlier, this year has been a different story. No team has a better run differential in the sport. The offense is top five in all key categories, but clearly the bigger reason for success has been a pitching staff which ranks 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP and 2nd in opponents' batting average. So allowing 11 runs yday was clearly an abberration. Among American League teams, only the White Sox (!) have allowed fewer runs this season. Saturday's starter Michael Pineda has certainly done his part w/ a 2.75 ERA and 0.813 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Yankee victories. Behind him is one of the top bullpens in the sport, one that shut the door late last night by allowing zero runs in the final three innings. 

Starting opposite Pineda will be Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a very misleading 4-0 TSR. Though the Orioles have won all four of his starts, rarely has it been because of Jimenez himself. He has an ERA of 5.95 and a WHIP of 1.628 and has failed to make it out of the fifth inning three times. Last time out was his shortest stint to date as he gave up three runs in just 3 1/3 IP against Tampa Bay. Not only has Jimenez allowed 4 HR's already this season, but he has the same number of walks (12) as he does K's. For the sake of comparison, Pineda has a 29-3 KW rate this year. Baltimore's bullpen is still w/o Zach Britton and has poor marks on the road, certainly not helped by last night. The Yankees are simply the better team here and have been dominant at home, outscoring foes by nearly two full runs per game. 8* NY Yankees

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): The Royals return home to Kauffman Stadium looking for answers. They're in last place in the American League Central after taking seven consecutive losses, all on the road. Offense has been virtually non-existent for a club only two years removed from winning the World Series. In fact, they've now been held to two runs or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. After just getting swept by the Rangers and White Sox, they'll be looking to avenge another sweep this weekend, that being one that took place earlier in the year at Minnesota. Clearly, as you can tell from all these sweeps, the Royals haven't played well on the road this season (2-11!), but they are a respectable 5-3 at home and I see them getting back on track tonight.

Neither starting pitcher for Friday's series opener has a win to his name thus far in 2017. But there is no denying that KC's Ian Kennedy has pitched much better than has Minnesota's Kyle Gibson. Kennedy has a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts while Gibson has a 9.00 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in his four. Last time out, Gibson made it only 2 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. His strikeout numbers, a perennial "bugaboo" for the entire Twins' staff, have also been poor. In 17 innings of work, he has just 12 K's against seven walks. He's also allowed a home run in every start (five total). As for Kennedy, he's made three consecutive quality starts and allowed only 3 ER in the process. His last home start was the "best of the bunch" considering he went eight full innings w/o giving up a single run (only two hits!) and he struck out 10. Fortunately, his offense managed to score once (in the ninth!), so while it was a no-decision for him, it was still a win for the Royals.

The shame of Kansas City's hitters not producing is that the pitching staff has been pretty good. The team has somehow lost four times this year in games where it allowed two runs or fewer. Two of those have come w/ Kennedy on the bump. Last time out, he surrendered only a run and four hits in 7 IP at Texas, but the team still lost 2-1. This lack of luck has to change sooner rather than later and it should be pointed out that Minnesota has given up double digit runs in three of its last eight games. This could be the spot where the Royals' offense finally breaks out. Remember, they were 15-4 vs. the Twins last year, including 9-1 here at home. 10* Kansas City

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. New York is in a terrible way right now, having dropped six straight - all at home. So, perhaps leaving Queens might do them some good. What will eventually be a seven-game trek starts in the Nation's capital as they look to avenge a sweep at the hands of the Nationals from last weekend. I realize that there aren't a whole lot of positives to write about the Mets right now, but getting a pitcher the caliber of Jacob deGrom plus additonal run and a half to work with is a nice value. Taking teams in this revenge spot (if swept in previous series) is also something I do often as it's quite difficult to continually beat the same team on a regular basis, particulary if it's a division rival. The Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

deGrom has yet to win this season, but he's pitched well in his four starts thus far. He has a 2.55 ERA overall and a 1.00 WHIP on the road. Last time out, he was a single out away from making it four consecutive quality starts to open 2017. It was certainly a strange outing LW vs. Washington as deGrom not only struck out 10, but also walked six batters. That latter number is what cost him the quality start as he had to be pulled earlier than expected. But despite all those free passes and allowing eight hits, deGrom only allowed three runners to score. In his first three starts combined, he allowed just four runs in 19 innings. He's recorded a total of 23 K's in his last two starts, which is impressive as well. The control issues which plagued him in his last start are uncommon and I wound not expect a repeat of that here. In eight career starts vs. Washington, deGrom has an ERA of 3.33.

Washington, on the other hand, comes into the series on fire. They've won 9 of 10 and just scored an insane 42 runs in three wins at Colorado. But that level of offensive firepower simply cannot be maintained and one must consider the environment they were playing in (Coors Field). The Mets have generally been competitive, even while losing, as just one game during the streak has been decided by more than three runs. They also have as many wins on the road (4) in seven games as they do in 14 home games. I realize that facing Max Scherzer is certainly not something that seems ideal, but note that the Nats' ace was beaten in his lone home start so far and one of his wins came by a one-run margin. Last time out, when he faced the Mets, he allowed a season high 3 ER. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Under Padres/D'backs (9:40 ET): I realize that Arizona has been hitting the cover off the baseball so far at Chase Field, but them averaging 7.3 runs per game here w/ a collective batting average of .324 isn't likely to last. In fact, just last night we saw them score "only" five times in suffering their first loss of the series to the division rival Padres. San Diego is also a major reason why I'm stunned at how high this total is. For years now, the Padres have been one of the lightest hitting teams in all of baseball. Yesterday aside, that trend has continued into 2017 as their team batting average is only .224, which is 26th in MLB. They're also 28th in on base percentage. They will not score eight runs again like last night. Take the Under. 

Mock the Padres signing of Jered Weaver all you want (I certainly have!), but the veteran has come in and pitched surprisingly well thus far. While the team has lost all of four of his starts, Weaver has a WHIP of 1.00. The home run ball has been a problem, but he's coming off three consecutive quality outings. His best start of the year, ironically, came at Coors Field. Something to point out w/ the Padres' offense is that they scored five runs in the top of the ninth yday as embattled Arizona reliever Fernando Rodney imploded yet again. Through eight innings, they had managed just three runs on six hits. I really don't understand the oddsmakers move to bump up the total for this series finale, at all. 

Taijuan Walker gets the baseball here for the D'backs. He's faced the Giants and Dodgers twice so far in 2017. He finished w/ a 13-2 KW rate against the Dodgers and won both games. He did make one mistake his last time out, a two-run homer in the first inning, but other than that he's allowed only three run in his last 10 2/3 innings of work. Because Walker previously pitched for Seattle (a regular interleague opponent for the Padres), this won't be the first time he's seen San Diego. In two career starts against them, his ERA is 1.50. I realize that the first three games of the series have all gone Over, but look for both offenses (especially SD's) to taper off in tonight's finale. 10* Under Padres/D'backs

8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians squared away this potential ALCS preview at one game apiece by holding on for a 7-6 win yday. Having earned a split against the Astros' two frontline starters (Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers) should be considered a "moral victory" of sorts for the Tribe, who can now send out their own ace Thursday, that being Corey Kluber, who just tossed a CG shutout in his last start. Last night saw Cleveland jump all over McCullers and take an early 3-0 lead. Things got dicey late (Astros scored twice in top of the eighth) before Cody Allen came in for the four-out save. I can see them pouncing on tonight's Houston starter as well, Michael Fiers, and with Kluber pitching, the runs allowed side of the ledger should be just fine.

Fiers may have a 2-1 team start record, but he's yet to record a winning decision for himself, nor has he deserved one. Well, maybe his first outing of the year against Kansas City. There he gave up only two runs (one earned) in six innings. But he did walk three. The long ball has been a real problem thus far as the number of HR's allowed by Fiers has incremently risen w/ each passing start. He gave up two in his second start (at Seattle) and then three his last time out, which was at Tampa Bay. Those L2 starts lasted only a total of nine innings and like this one, both were on the road. The fact that the Astros won both of Fiers' road starts seems highly fortunate. The offense did score 16 runs, but that kind of help isn't to be expected here tonight against Kluber.

As mentioned earlier, Kluber went the distance his last time out and didn't give up a single run. He held the White Sox to only three hits and no runner ever even reached second base! Kluber also has 17 K's over his last two starts. The Cleveland lineup has been strengthened by the return of Michael Brantley this year. Limited to only 11 games in 2016, Brantley had 15 RBI's in his last 17 games and comes into today riding a 10-game hitting streak (.381). Three of those RBI's came yesterday. Meanwhile, Houston's lineup is not at full strength. They are expected to be w/o Jose Altuve, George Springer and Jake Marisnick again Thursday. Those are all key losses and a major reason reason to fade when facing Kluber. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (8:05 ET): I won w/ the Under in the series opener between these two on Monday (which was a 3-2 win by the Twins). Then the Rangers got humiliated last night, losing again to the Twins, this time by a score of 8-1. That makes it B2B losses at home for LY's AL West Champs after sweeping Kansas City here over the weekend. Coming into the year, Texas was a team likely to regress anyway given that LY's 95-win campaign was built on the backbone of an extraordinarily fortunate 36-11 record in one-run games, the best such mark in MLB HISTORY (run differential was only +8!). But I have the home team bouncing back this evening as they send Cole Hamels to the bump to face a team that has struggled to hit left-handed pitching so far this season. 

Texas hasn't done much hitting in its own right lately. Over its L8 games, they've been held to two runs or fewer six times. Fortunately for them, they were bailed out in the Royals series by some extraordinary pitching performances. One came from Hamels, who despite only 3 K's, allowed only one run and three hits in eight impressive innings of work. That was actually the 1st time this season the Rangers won w/ their ace on the mound and the 1st time he didn't allow a home run. But, as teased before, the Twins are batting a collective .219 against left-handed starters so far and thus I anticipate Hamels will pitch well again tonight. In his two starts in Arlington thus far, Hamels has produced a WHIP of 0.786. So, despite the 1-3 TSR, it's not as if he's pitched poorly. 

Minnesota will counter w/ Hector Santiago, himself off to a strong start to 2017. Santiago is also probably deserving of a better team start record given that he's allowed only six runs all year in 24 2/3 innings of work. But I'm going to go ahead and call for the Texas lineup to break out of its slump tonight. Santiago has not pitched well in his career against the Rangers, posting a 4.04 ERA in 20 appearances. Last year alone, his ERA was 6.63 in three matchups when he was w/ the Angels. So the Rangers' hitters know him well. Something to keep in mind is that Minnesota has just one win streak of more than two games this season. It came when they started the season 4-0. Since then, they're just 6-10 overall and I just can't see them sweeping this series on the road. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Tigers +1.5. Not sure why you wouldn't want to grab the additional 1.5 runs here w/ the team that has scored an impressive 32 runs in its last two games, including 19 yday at the Mariners' expense. Those two performances have taken the Tigers' run differential from an ugly -24 to -4 rather quickly and while that's still not necessarily what you want to see from a division leader (Tigers now lead Cleveland by 1 game), it's something you can work with. I played Detroit on the RL yday and obviously did not even need the +1.5 as Felix Hernandez left early for Seattle and the Tigers lineup - sans Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias - put the game "to bed" early w/ a nine-run fifth that gave them a 16-4 lead at the time. Given Seattle's road woes, I can't see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here.

Seattle's struggles away from Safeco Field were a primary reason for me playing against them yday. They're now just 2-10 in road games so far. They've been outscored by an average of 1.4 rpg and even after their own strong offensive output Tuesday, they still are hitting only a collective .225 outside the Pacific Northwest. The club's road woes have even extended to tonight's starter James Paxton, who allowed five runs in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out, at Oakland. Prior to that, Paxton had tossed 21 scoreless innings to start the year. But I'm not buying much into that and the Tigers have never been too freindly to him either. The last time Paxton pitched here at Comerica Park, he allowed a career-worst 11 hits. Detroit is 5-1 this season against LH starters.

Starting opposite Paxton will be Daniel Norris, who will be looking to rebound from one of his own worst efforts in recent memory. Last Thursday in Tampa Bay, he allowed five runs (four earned) in just 4 2/3 innings. The Tigers lost 8-1 and it was the most runs allowed by Norris in 22 starts. In fact, he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the previous 21 starts! Like Detroit, Seattle's lineup is down some key pieces. Kyle Seager (missed L3 games) may be back tonight, but RF Mitch Haniger (who manager Scott Servias called his "most consistent, hottest hitter") left yday's game w/ a strained oblique. He's expected to hit the DL. Given what happened yday and Seattle's overall play on the road, I'm playing this one the same way. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): Things got a bit dicey at the end, but the D'backs were able to hold on for a 7-6 victory in last night's series opener vs. the Padres. It was a game they led 7-1 going into the seventh thanks to another outstanding effort from Zack Greinke, who struck out 11. But once manager Andy Green lifted Greinke, things got interesting. Thankfully, San Diego's rally fell one run short. As was the case w/ yday's matchup, we have a starting pitching rematch from a game played last week. After Greinke was able to gain revenge against Jhuoulys Chacin last night, I see Patrick Corbin doing the same here against Clayton Richard. I see no reason why not to again back Arizona at home where they're now 9-2 and averaging an impressive 7.4 runs per game. 

As discussed in yday's analysis, these teams met last week in San Diego. The Padres took two of three, one of them a 1-0 win in the Chacin-Greinke matchup. Chacin was shockingly able to outduel Greinke there and the same was the case the following day with Richard and Corbin both on the hill. Richard allowed only one run in 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight. But perhaps he "should have" allowed more considering he also gave up nine hits. Corbin, meanwhile, allowed only five hits in six innings, but three runs (despite an identical 8-0 KW ratio). I'm handicapping this one the same as yday as I don't see the same pitcher coming out ahead twice in row. 

Richard had allowed a total of nine runs his previous two starts, so similar to Chacin, I see him regressing the second go around vs. an Arizona lineup that has hit the cover off the baseball here in Chase Field. In addition to scoring 7.4 rpg here, the D'backs are batting a collective .314. On the other hand, the Padres are one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball (.216 team BA), so things should go easier this time around for Corbin, who tossed six shutout innings (against Cleveland) the last time he pitched at home. I also - again - have to go back to the fact that San Diego was projected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year. Thus, even an 8-13 record has to be considered a mild surprise, even though they're finally starting to slip as they've lost three straight and 8 of their last 11. 10* Arizona

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago rocked Kansas City in last night's series opener, winning 12-1, so being able to get a 1.5 run cushion with them tonight seems like a real luxury. Especially considering KC can't score at all right now. Over the last eight games. they have been held to two runs or fewer EVERY TIME out! They've scored just 10 runs total during that span, so the idea of them winning by multiple runs here seems foolishly optimistic. Their lone non one-run victory over the L10 days was a 2-0 game. Starter Danny Duffy seemingly brings some hope, but the White Sox are 5-1 against lefties so far. The home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here.

These AL Central rivals came into this series as the two lowest scoring offenses in the American League. But the White Sox offense showed up yesterday, totaling a season high in runs and matching a season-best w/ 15 hits. The most impressive thing about the performance is that it came against Jason Vargas, who had the lowest ERA in all of MLB coming into Monday. Therefore, there's no reason fret Duffy, even though he's 4 for 4 so far in terms of quality starts. But one thing to keep an eye on w/ Duffy is that he's walked 10 batters so far. Those extra baserunners allowed haven't really burned him yet, but could here. In addition to 25 hits, Tigers' hitters have drawn eight walks the past two games. That's 33 baserunners total!

Certainly, White Sox starter Dylan Covey might give you pause. He was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs and 10 hits (three HR's) at Yankee Stadium. But in his first start, he allowed just one run and five hits over 5 1/3 IP. And again, what's to worry about this Royals' lineup? They managed only two hits yday and have scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. They're batting just .177 and have gone 2-9 on the road. The decline has been fast from winning the World Series two years ago and I just don't see how the oddsmakers justify installing KC as a road favorite here. Not after the White Sox scored more runs yday than the Royals have over their last eight games - combined! 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the Tigers +1.5. There was a time when fading Felix Hernandez would be considered foolish. But King Felix is no longer what he once was and he and the Mariners have been downright terrible on the road this year. Thus, there is an opportunity to grab an additional 1.5 runs with the home Tigers here and I'll pounce on it. While I'm a tad bit suspect of the Tigers' 10-8 start (-14 run diff), they have won two straight including a 13-4 win Sunday. Tonight marks their return home from a nine-game road trip. They should be ready to roll in what is only their fifth night game of the season (statistical oddity!). Look for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Seattle is just 2-9 on the road so far w/ the lineup batting a collective .205 in those games. That's a major reason why I'm going against them here. While they did win 11-1 at Oakland Sunday, they'd also dropped the first three games of that series. With Hernandez, he may have won his L2 starts, but both were at home and there's been some warning signs. Such as him allowing a season high in both runs (4) and hits (12) his last time out where he was fortunate to be get plenty of run support. He allowed two home runs in that game, a 10-5 win over Miami, as well. He's now allowed five already this year. It was also the second time in the L3 starts that the former Cy Young winner allowed 10+ hits. He did face Detroit once last year and pitched well, but that was at Safeco Field. Interestingly, the home team won all seven matchups between these two teams in 2016. 

Countering Hernandez will be Jordan Zimmerman. He too was less than stellar his last time out. It's actually been B2B subpar efforts from him. But his first start here at Comerica Park was quality as he held Boston to just one run and four hits in six innings of work. If he can do that to what was the top offense in MLB last season, then why can't he do the same to a lineup that simply hasn't produced on the road this year? I'm well aware of the somewhat "makeshift" lineup the Tigers will be fielding here, but as mentioned before, the group was still able to put together 13 runs in the last game. I suspect the Tigers will be happy to be home and the day off probably did them some good. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): For the second time in six days, Arizona's Zack Greinke and San Diego's Jhoulys Chacin will square off. Last Wednesday, it was Chacin coming away the surprise winner, though only by a 1-0 margin in a game where both starters pitched tremendously. Greinke was his usual self, allowing just one run on five hits over eight innings. But, shockingly, Chacin outdueled him by delivering eight innings of shutout, three-hit ball. One of those pitchers should stick to form tonight and it won't be Chacin. What made his last outing so shocking is that he'd been rocked in two of his first three. Both the "bad ones" came on the road. Moving from Petco Park to Chase Field (where the D'backs are 8-2 and averaging 7.4 rpg) will make all the difference in the world. 

Chacin has been a complete disaster in the two road starts w/ a 14.05 ERA and 2.641 WHIP. He allowed 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings. Hitter friendly Chase Field is certainly not an ideal environment for him to reverse the trend. Like I already said; the D'backs are hitting the cover off the ball here, averaging 7.4 runs per game while batting a collective .316. In the series at San Diego, they scored 11 times in the opener, but then were held to just a single run in B2B losses. They then returned home to assault Dodgers pitching w/ 24 runs on Friday/Saturday, before being held to only two yesterday, which was just their second loss here all season. Let's also remember San Diego's preseason projection. This is widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this year, so even an 8-12 record should be taken w/ a grain of salt. Regression has already begun to set in w/ the Padres losing 7 of 10. They're just 3-8 on the road.

Greinke has owned San Diego in his career, posting a 1.96 ERA in 17 starts against them. He made just one mistake last time, that was allowing a solo home run to Erick Aybar in the eighth inning. Still, in three of four starts this season, Greinke has allowed 2 ER or less. The Padres are always one of the lightest hitting teams and this year, despite limited success, has been no different. They come into tonight averaging just 3.1 rpg while batting a collective .213. Those numbers simply won't get it done at Chase Field. Look for Greinke to dominate them again while Chacin struggles this time. 8* Arizona

10* Under Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): I had my suspicions about the Rangers coming into 2017 given that LY's 90+ win campaign included them outscoring opponents by only a measley eight runs! A visit from a Royals team they've now owned the L2 seasons (10-1 head to head!) seems to have gotten them on track, however. They won all four games over the weekend, allowing only five runs in the process. That's pretty impressive, especially since four of those came in the games started by Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. The team is still below .500, though so is their newest visitor (Minnesota), who has cooled off dramatically since a surprising start. The Twins just gave up 13 runs in a loss to the Tigers yday, but given what we've seen from the Rangers recently, a lower scoring affair is to be expected tonight. Take the Under.

Getting back to Texas' somewhat suspicious success last year, they actually struggled against a Twins team that lost 100+ games. Minnesota won five of seven head to head, scoring 10+ runs three times and scoring at least five in all but one game. But looking at the Rangers' pitching right now, a repeat of that would be highly unlikely. Martin Perez has already made four starts and in three of them, he's allowed three runs or fewer. It was thought that the offense would carry this Twins team, but they've scored more than four runs just twice in the past nine games. Instead, it's been their own pitching that was responsible for the strong start. Before yday (season-high in runs allowed), there had been only three games where they'd allowed more than five runs. 

The Under has gone 6-1 in the Rangers' last seven games, not a surprise given that both them and their opposition is hitting below .200 during that time. They were fortunate that the pitching shined in the Royals series because in two of the games, they scored two runs or fewer. That's now happened in 6 of the past 10 games! Good news for Phil Hughes, who will be looking to bounce back from B2B subpar efforts for the Twins. Signing former Astros catcher Jason Castro has been huge in the pitch framing department so far. Defense, a pitcher's best friend, has also improved dramatically. Backup catcher Chris Gimenez was sadly called into duty Sunday, a shame because the Minnesota bullpen has been another bright spot. Let's also not discount the importance of that half-run in the O/U line here, especially if we are able to avoid playing the bottom of the ninth as I anticipate. 10* Under Twins/Rangers

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): After taking the first two games, the defending World Series Champs failed to sweep in Cincinnati over the weekend. They lost 7-5 Sunday, but still are atop the NL Central. That being said, they've been nowhere near as dominant as they were as the start of 2016 when they outscored the opposition by 60+ runs over the first 16 games. Pittsburgh avoided a sweep Sunday w/ a 2-1 win over the Yankees, but has still lost four of six and been outscored by a division worst 16 runs over the course of the season. So, despite what happened yday, there shouldn't be any denying who the better team is here and I think the "price is right" to strike! 

Now, the "better team" certainly failed to assert itself in the first series of 2017 between these two. The Pirates shockingly swept a three-game set at Wrigley Field, which was some payback for going only 4-14 vs. the Cubs last year. The Bucs were significant underdogs on the money line in every game, so if you bet them, you came out well. Pittsburgh averaged 6.0 rpg against Cubs' pitching and that's something you should NOT expect to see again. With the Starling Mare suspension still fresh, the lineup has been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games. At the same time, it's been the Cubs' bats that have woken up lately. They averaged 6.1 rpg over the past week.

On the mound, the Cubs will turn to a lefty Monday, that being Brett Anderson. I anticipate he'll pitch well seeing as the Pirates have a losing record vs. southpaws thus far. Anderson did get rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs in an abbreviated effort in Milwaukee. But before that, he'd allowed just one run in 10 2/3 IP. Many will want to actually give the starting pitching edge here to Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl, but he's struggled against lefties and that doesn't bode well facing a lineup that includes the names Schwarber, Rizzo, Zobrist and Heyward. Also, Kris Bryant has typically saved some of his best work for Pirates' pitching as 1.087 OPS is his highest vs. any NL opponent. Save for the three-game sweep of the Cubs, the Bucs are 0-6 in division games this year. 10* Chi Cubs

9* NY Mets (8:05 ET): The Mets seemingly come into Sunday nights' finale w/ the Nationals at a severe disadvantage. They've dropped the first two games of this three game set, at home, and have now dropped three in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Nats have won six in a row and now send Max Scherzer to the hill. But let's not forget that that the Mets were actually favored on the money line in the first two games of this series. Losing twice changes that, but I suspect the change from the oddsmakers has more to do w/ Scherzer's presence than anything else. I feel that's being overvalued. Look for the Mets to avoid the sweep tonight as they salvage a game.

Scherzer absolutely should command respect. After all, he has a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP through his first three starts. He's been one of the top pitchers in the game for the past several seasons. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in Atlanta. But the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies (Scherzer's first three opponents) are hardly a "murderer's row." Now his career ERA vs. the Mets (1.38) is his lowest vs. any opponent that he's faced at least ten times. And the Mets have scored only 23 runs in their last eight games. But I'm going to still keep the faith. After all, the Nats have not swept a series here in Queens since 2014. 

The Mets will send Zack Wheeler to the bump. He could use some offensive help, but then again he too is off a strong outing, holding the Phillies to one run and four hits in five innings of work. It's not as if the Nats have been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. They've scored just three and four runs in the two wins, respectively, and have collected only 13 hits. Nats' hitters have actually drawn as many walks as they have hits in the series, which has been crucial. Wheeler has exhibited pretty good control thus far w/ only four walks in three starts. That's fewer than Scherzer, albeit in fewer innings. Still, it's also a good sign that Washington struck out 15 times yday and Wheeler posted 7 K's in that last start. The Mets are 20-14 the L3 seasons when coming off three straight losses. 9* NY Mets

10* Miami (8:40 ET): The Marlins were a loser for me Friday night here in San Diego. A four-run seventh by the Padres is what decided the game, which had been knotted at 1-1 ever since the second inning. Miami did score two runs in the top of the ninth, but it wasn't nearly enough. Still, I'll come back w/ the Fish tonight. San Diego being 8-10 is a major surprise to me, given their preseason projection of being the worst team in all of baseball. In terms of run differential, they are currently the worst (-26). So, I say it's time for them to start losing some more games. They've shockingly won three in a row here at home, but ye would be correct in having little faith in tonight's starter Jered Weaver, who has an 0-3 TSR w/ a 4.24 ERA and 1.059 WHIP.

Coming into the year, having Weaver as a front-end starter was thought to be a disaster. So far, that thought process has played out on the field. The Padres actually now have a winning record when anyone BUT Weaver is on the hill, but as noted above, they're 0-3 in his starts, all of which have taken place on the road. But don't think a start in pitcher friendly Petco Park will cure all that ails him. It certainly won't improve the velocity on his woeful fastball. Last night aside, Miami is a team that has generally hit well this year. They're sixth in batting average, so expect the runs to start coming at a higher frequency. They had pounded out double digit hits in six of their nine games previous to yday. 

On the other hand, yesterday marked only the second time all year that the Padres finished a game w/ double digit hits. They had exactly 10, their most in a game since a 4-0 win over the Dodgers all the way back on 4.4, just their second game of the season. The team is batting a collective .215, which is 26th in MLB. They have that same ranking in both runs scored and on base percentage as well. This is of course nothing new as for years now this has been one of the worst offensive clubs in all of baseball. Thus, Ill call for Marlins starter Dan Straily to build off his excellent outing last Sunday when he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Mets, which ended up being a 4-2 win. Straily needs to work on his control some (5 BBs last time out), but fortunately the Padres don't draw many walks as a team. 10* Miami

8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): While the season is not even one month old, I suspect most casual baseball observers were stunned to see the Reds on top of the Cubs in the NL Central standings coming into this weekend series. As was I. But that placement was rectified w/ the defending World Series Champs coming from behind to win yday, 6-5 in 11 innings. They've now won three straight while Cincy has lost three in a row. Needless to say, you can expect the gap between these teams to only grow as the season wears on and head to head play will have a lot to do w/ that. The Cubs are now 29-10 vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season and have taken six of the past seven series. A game where they led by three runs entering the ninth inning was probably the best shot Cincy had at a win in this series and they blew it last night.

Now the Reds must face Jake Arrieta, who is up to his "old tricks" w/ 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP through three starts. Giving up a pair of home runs his last time out cost him against the Pirates, but I don't think there is any reason to be concerned. This is a pitcher who has gone 42-14 over his L67 starts w/ a 2.41 ERA. He has a 21-5 KW ratio this year. Arrieta threw a no-hitter in this ballpark last season and also has a CG, one-hit, shutout to his credit at the Reds' expense. Not only are the Cubs 16-4 their L20 meetings overall with the Reds, they are 16-4 their L20 games here at Great American Ballpark. Remember how these teams were priced coming into the season. The Cubs are the consensus best team in baseball while the Reds were pegged as likely the second worst, ahead of only San Diego. This is almost a no-brainer. 

Just like yday, the Reds will go with a starter making his 2017 debut opposite a Cubs hurler w/ a strong pedigree. Today, it's Cody Reed, who has been strong out of the bullpen so far. But as a starter, Reed really struggled against the Cubs last year, allowing 11 runs in just eight innings of work. He lost both times he faced them. The home run ball continues to plague Reds' pitching against the Cubs. After giving up 42 to them last season, they allowed three yday, including a three-run shot that tied the game in the ninth by Anthony Rizzo. That blown save opportunity was all-too reminiscent of last year's Reds team. The Cubs have won all four times this year when facing a southpaw starter. Expect them to jump all over Reed and the Reds here. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Miami (10:10 ET): A rare time to find Miami as a money line favorite, on the road no less. But given the San Diego is providing the opposition, it's an opportune time to strike. The Padres' 2017 projection was basically the opposite of "rosy," so even a 7-10 record has to be considered a mild surprise. But take that record with the proverbial "grain of salt" as they've actually been outscored by 28 runs, which is the worst margin in all of MLB! They've gotten crushed on numerous occasions (4 losses by 7+ runs) and it's not as if they're scoring much. But they did just take two of three from Arizona here at Petco, thanks to allowing just one run in the pair of victories. I'll call for this madness to end and San Diego to start losing more regularly, starting tonight. 

Miami gets a bit of an edge here in that they had Thursday off. They probably needed it after dropping two of three up in Seattle. I played against them in the opener of that series as they were beaten 6-1. They responded w/ a 5-0 shutout Tuesday, but then lost the rubber match 10-5. Let's remember that they did take three of four from the Mets in the previous series, albeit at home. Given that the offense is third in team batting average (.267), you'd think they would have scored more than 70 runs in 15 games (12th). Don't be surprised though if they cross the plate w/ greater regularity tonight facing embattled Padres starter Andrew Cahill, who has lost both of his starts so far while allowing seven runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's also issued six walks, three in each start.

Countering Cahill will be Adam Conley. The Marlins are 2-0 when he toes the rubber and he's posted a 0.909 WHIP. Both starts were against the Mets and he allowed just five hits in 11 innings of work. The bottom line here is I just don't think San Diego is very good and going against them in this price range seems like a massive steal. 8* Miami

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's took last night's series opener (as +135 underdogs on the ML) and have now won three straight. They won Thursday on the back of a surprisingly strong outing from starter Cesar Valdez (1st big league start in 7 years!) and a three-run HR by Trevor Plauffe in the seventh. Beating James Paxton is quite impressive when you consider the kind of beginning to the season yday's Mariners' starter has had. Tonight, Oakland finds itself favored on the ML, which may surprise some. But as alluded to earlier, this team is playing well. Meanwhile, Seattle is just 1-7 on the road thanks to batting a collective .185. Look for the A's to make it two straight over the Mariners and four in a row overall.

Oakland starter Sean Manaea is coming off one of the stranger outings of 2017 thus far. He threw five no-hit innings last Saturday against Texas, but was charged with two runs (only one earned) and walked five. His team start record is now 0-3 and his ERA, 5.51, but he has a WHIP of 1.041. In his last two starts, Manaea has 16 strikeouts and has allowed only three hits. That's in 10 1/3 innings. While there was the control issue his last time out, when you see that kind of discrepancy between the ERA and WHIP, it's usually a tell-tale sign that the pitcher's fortune is likely to turn around for the better. (I find WHIP to be a far more reliable metric than the somewhat outdated ERA). Opposing hitters are batting just .138 against Manaea so far. He has not lost in three career starts vs. the Mariners, by the way.

Seattle counters w/ Hisashi Iwakuma, who had two good starts to open the year, but was shaky his last time out. Iwakuma lasted only three innings at home vs. Texas and gave up six runs on seven hits. However, the Mariners' bats were able to bail him out in what turned out to be a 7-6 win. Ironically, the team lost those first two starts when he sharper, both by a single run. Oakland's lineup has produced nine runs in each of the last two games, so Iwakuma could be up against it here. The Mariners' bullpen has also been pretty lousy to this point w/ a 5.98 ERA (28th) and 1.48 WHIP (23rd) w/ opponents batting a frightening .280 against them (27th).  8* Oakland

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays have turned into a complete dumpster fire at this point w/ a league worst 3-12 record that has seen them get outscored by 21 runs. While it's true I took them Wednesday (and they cashed!), they followed that up by losing 4-1 in extra innings yday to Boston, in a getaway day affair. Having to now fly out to the West Coast does them no favors. They fanned an incredible 18 times in yday's day game and while the majority of the team's losses have been by three runs or fewer, I don't see them turning it around here. The Angels are returning home off a disappointing seven-game road swing (went 1-6) and they are the ones who I see turning things around, at least on Friday. 

We have a battle of starters making their respective 2017 debuts here. Mat Latos goes for Toronto in an emergency role as the team has already had to put two starters, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez, to the disabled list. I don't have a ton of confidence here in Latos, who is on his eighth team and was quite fortunate to have a 9-3 team start record w/ the White Sox and Washington, given he also had an ERA of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.454. Sure, the Angels lineup hasn't been doing much scoring recently, but back in the friendly confines of their home park that should change. In six home games thus far, the Halos are scoring 5.3 rpg while batting a collective .291. Latos will obviously have to deal w/ Mike Trout here. 

Pitching for the home team will be Alex Meyer. His call-up was due to the fact the team is playing 20 games in 20 days and wanted to give the members of its rotation an extra day of rest. The lineup Meyer will face tonight is nowhere near as formidable as Blue Jays' lineups of the past couple seasons. The team is hitting just .215 for the year and has scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Furthermore, this price range should suit Meyer and the Angels well. Not only are they 44-18 the L3 seasons as ML favorite of -125 to -175 at home, but Toronto is 5-20 as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  8* LA Angels

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): Regression can be so unkind and the Texas Rangers are finding that out right now. Last year's AL West Champs may have won 95 games, but they outscored opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season. How does that even happen, you ask? A historic 36-11 record in one-run games (ALL-TIME best in MLB history!) was the culprit there. This year's team has started 5-10 and not surprising (to me) is that they are 0-4 in one-run affairs. You see, the majority of teams will finish at or around .500 in one-run games over the course of a season. Any outlier is considered "lucky" or "unlucky" depending on your vantage point. I look for the Rangers to be an unlucky team in 2017 and the hard times should continue tonight w/ a visit from Danny Duffy and Kansas City. 

It certainly wasn't a case of "bad luck" Wednesday as the Rangers were simply rocked by Oakland, 9-1. Skipper Jeff Bannister was ejected and the team has now dropped five of six, falling into last place in the AL West. Now they are at least back home this weekend following a nine-game road trip out West. But not having a day off in between is a killer in my view. So is facing Danny Duffy, who is off to a terrific start w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three outings, all of them quality. Last time out, Duffy was fantastic as he allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings of work against the Angels (KC won 7-1). The Royals' starting rotation comes into this series sporting the top ERA in the entire American League and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of the past nine games! Meanwhile, the Texas lineup is scuffling right now as they've been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games and they had just three hits each of the last two days agianst Oakland.

The Royals were just 1-6 against the Rangers last year, so they'll be out for revenge. They were swept in their lone visit to Arlington. One pitcher not responsible for that record is Andrew Cashner, tonight's starter for Texas. Cashner was signed in the offseason and his 1st start of '17 wasn't all too promising as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and posted a negative KW rate. Duffy is 14-3 since the start of last season, so it's a significant edge for KC on the mound tonight, not that they need it. 10* Kansas City

8* Under Phillies/Mets (7:10 ET): We have two pitchers with atrocious ERA/WHIPs, so naturally it would be time to strike w/ an Under play. If this sounds "too contrarian" for you, note that Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is far better than he's looked so far in 2017. He was the real bright spot of the Philly rotation last year and has 17 strikeouts in just nine innings of work this year. But some control issues and bad luck have hurt him so far. Consider he's allowed 9 runs on just 10 hits. Seven walks certainly haven't helped his cause, but I expect that issue to be ironed out. As for Mets' starter Robert Gsellman, he somehow gave up eight runs (career-high) on just five hits his last time out. So he should pitch better here as well. Take the Under.

The Mets haven't won since that last start by Gsellman, which was a 9-8 victory over the Marlins in 16 innings. They've since dropped four in a row scoring only 10 total runs in the process. They had only four hits last night and have had five or less in three straight games. Jose Reyes has become an absolute disaster at this point. His slash line is an unconscionable .100/.182./.140. In most instances, I'd call for some progression to the mean, but there's just no sign of it here. His error in the field last night is also what cost the Mets the game. They were leading 2-1 going into the 8th frame when Reyes misjudged an easy pop fly, paving the way for the Phils to tie the game up and send it into extra innings.

The fact that last night's game went Over (7.5) is misleading. It should have caught your eye that it was a 2-1 game heading into the eighth inning. Well, even with Reyes' costly error, the final score was misleading. Philadelphia scored four times in the top of the 10th. After just three total runs were scored over seven innings, one could certainly argue that the next five (all from the Phillies) never should have happened. With the Mets not hitting right now, this one shapes up as a low scoring affair. Before breaking through in the top of the 10th last night, Philly had not scored more than four runs in a game since 4.8. Of their 62 runs scored this year, 17 came in one outlier of a game. That's just 45 runs scored in the other 12. They were held to 11 runs total when they were swept by the Mets last week. 8* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I'm back to backing the Rays after they came through as my 10* Game of the Week in last night's series opener. That was as much a play AGAINST Tigers' starter Michael Fulmer as anything else, but it's now certainly worth noting that the Rays are 6-2 this year at Tropicana Field. Tonight, this is most definitely a play ON TB starter Chris Archer, who is off to a 3-0 start to 2017. I've played him twice and in my analysis for the season opener, I predicted a massive bounce back from him this season. Last year, he finished dead last among starters in net units at the betting window, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set. Look for Archer and the Rays to make it two straight over the Tigers tonight.

We're not getting as good a price on the Rays as we did last night, but that's to be expected w/ Archer on the bump. He already is sporting a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Last time out, he was not at his best (lasted only 5 2/3 innings), but still held the Red Sox to just one run in Boston and the Rays won as underdogs (I had them!). He is now the first Rays' starter since '13 to open a season w/ three starts of allowing two runs or fewer. He has a 3.12 ERA vs. the Tigers in six career starts. Behind him is a bullpen that's been a lot better at home, reflecting the overall fate of the team this year. In what is already shaping up as a competitive AL East, TB cannot afford to fall too far back. But remember, I've identified them as one of the AL's most improved teams, if for no other reason then they were very lucky last year (MLB-worst 13-26 in one run games). 

Going into yesterday, Detroit was riding high after taking two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. They are 4-0 off a loss this year, but I'm not a buyer on this 8-5 start of theirs. They've actually now been outscored by 13 runs or an average of one per game. Tampa Bay might only be 7-8, but they're dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed. Tonight's starter for the Tigers is Jordan Zimmerman and he did not look good his last time out vs. Minnesota. He gave up five runs in 4 2/3 IP and also walked five batters. This is Zim's first road start of 2017 and I highly doubt he'll be able to match Archer. Last night also marked Detroit's worst offensive showing of the season so far. 8* Tampa Bay

9* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays nightmare season continued last night w/ an 8-7 home loss to the division rival Red Sox. As if a now 2-11 start (league worst) wasn't already bad enough, making matters more frustrating was the fact they had Boston in an advantageous spot Tuesday. The Red Sox had to play Monday (annual Patriot's Day game vs. Rays) while Toronto was off. Furthermore, the Jays raced out to an early 2-0 lead yday and had Marcus Stroman on the hill. But the de facto Toronto ace could not hold the lead and ended up w/ his shortest outing of 2017 (3 2/3 innings) after giving up six runs and 11 hits. The Jays almost pulled off a miracle rally in the ninth, turning an 8-4 deficit into 8-7, but alas, they could not get that one final run.

I refuse to believe Toronto is this bad. Last night was already their fifth one-run loss of 2017. Only two of their 11 losses have been by more than two runs. Eventually, you would have to think that "bad luck" evens out. This has been one of the top offenses in the game the past several seasons, but this year the lineup is only producing to the tune of 3.2 runs per game and a collective .222 batting average. That's not good. But it's still early and only a matter of time before the runs come. Now I realize there should be some trepidation w/ tonight's starter Francisco Liriano. But after a disastrous first start of 2017, he was actually outstanding last Thursday vs. Baltimore, giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP. He finished w/ a 10-2 KW ratio, but sadly was a hard luck loser as the Jays fell 2-1.

The pitcher I'd be more concerned with here is actually Boston's Rick Porcello, last year's Cy Young winner who I'm on the record as saying is due for some major regression in 2017. It was a minor miracle that Porcello was a 22-game winner a year ago (25-9 TSR). He opened 2-0 this year, but after being fortunate to come out ahead against Detroit in his second start (allowed four runs and 11 hits), I played against him his last time out and won big. Porcello allowed eight runs on eight hits, four of them home runs, in a 10-5 home loss to Tampa Bay as -120 ML favorites. While he was 13-1 at Fenway last season (15-1 TSR), his road record was just 9-4 (10-8 TSR). C'mon Toronto! 9* Toronto

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): I like what I'm seeing here w/ some overnight steam on the home team. The Rays come into this three-game set at just 6-8 on the year. They've dropped six of seven overall, including three straight in Boston over the weekend. Despite outhitting the Red Sox on Patriot's Day Monday (11-9), they fell short on the scoreboard, 4-3. It was a game that saw just one run scored over the final seven innings, ironically by the Rays. But I expect this club to starting playing better moving forward, especially now that they're back at Tropicana Field. The entirety of the 1-6 stretch came on the road. So that means they're a strong 5-2 at home. Detroit is 8-4 and off a win Sunday (at Cleveland), but has actually been outscored by nine runs so far. 

While I expect improvement from the Rays, I have serious doubts as to the Tigers ability to remain on top of the AL Central. Today's starter Michael Fulmer is one player in particular that I expect to regress. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year posted a net gain of 13.2 units at the betting window (7th best), but did so in spite of a somewhat pedestrian numbers. The team also went 8-0 in games where Fulmer did NOT factor into the decision. He has a 2-0 TSR so far in 2017, which surprises me as does the fact his ERA/WHIP have actually improved. But both starts also came at home. Five of his seven losses LY took place on the road. After surprisingly taking two of three in Cleveland over the weekend, this series should be a bit of a letdown for the Tigers. 

Interestingly, this will be only the 2nd night game for Detroit so far. Them winning in spite of a terrible bullpen (28th in ERA) has been particularly curious. Note all eight Tigers wins this year have been by three runs or less. Tampa Bay infamously had the worst record in MLB last year when it came to one-run games, but I firmly believe that this year will be different simply due to that record being something that typically regresses/progresses to the mean. The Rays' own bullpen performance was much better at home than it's been on the road thus far, which ties into the overall results. Yesterday, Rays' hitters were just 3 for 15 w/ RISP. Starter Matt Andriese actually pitched well his last time out, giving up just one run in six innings to the Yankees. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Both of these teams come into this series riding three-game win streaks. Seattle just swept Texas while Miami took the final three of a four-game set from the Mets. Key for the Marlins, however, is that last series was at home. This will be their first venture into Safeco Field since 2008. While they gain the designated hitter, I'm not going to expect much. Like most National League teams do, the Marlins have struggled in Interleague Play, going just 13-27 the last two seasons. Miami to Seattle, I believe, is the longest possible road trip in all of MLB. So, with the Mariners having just swept a superior foe (compared to Miami) over the weekend, I see no reason why we shouldn't throw our endorsement behind them here in tonight's series opener.

Miami obviously came into 2017 with a giant void in the starting rotation due to the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. But shockingly they've allowed the third fewest runs in the NL, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs. I expect that side of the ledger to start going up, however. Tom Koehler will be the one to start on the bump tonight and while his ERA looks nice, it's a tad bit misleading. His WHIP paints a better picture of his skill set as control issues have plagued him dating back to last season. He's walked five in 11 IP so far this year and also given up three home runs. Going back to the end of 2016, Koehler has walked multiple batters in 10 consecutive starts. Seattle hitters did a pretty decent job of drawing free passes in the Texas series (11 in three games), so pay attention to this aspect of the game.

Both teams are off walk-off wins on Sunday. In fact, all three of Miami's wins against the Mets came on rallies in the eighth inning or later, two of them a byproduct of the final at-bat. Seattle rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to shock Texas yday as all the Rangers' luck from 2016 has predictably gone by the wayside. I like what I've seen from this Mariners lineup over the past seven days as they have averaged a healthy 5.7 rpg over that time frame. That should be more than enough for southpaw Ariel Miranda tonight. Miranda has had to face Houston twice so far, so this is a drop in class. Pay no mind to the hullaballoo surrounding Ichiro Suzuki's return to the Pacifc Northwest as the former batting champ is 1 for 21 for Miami so far and by playing here will be somewhat of a liability in the lineup. Miami is just 14-22 off three or more wins the L2 seasons. 10* Seattle

9* Under Rays/Red Sox (11:05 AM ET): Two of the first three games of this series have been slugfests. Those would be the opener (won 10-5 by the Rays) and then yday's rubber match (won 7-5 by the Red Sox). In between was a 2-1 win for the home team and I think for today's finale we're likely to see something more along those lines. Yes, I'm well aware of what happened to Boston starter Steven Wright his last time out as the knuckleballer tossed a disastrous 1 1/3 IP where he allowed EIGHT runs and four homers! But, he should fare a lot better here in this early start as a general rule is that knuckleballers tend to perform far better in day games. Tampa Bay's Blake Snell was sharp his last time out, giving up just two unearned runs to the Yankees. Take the Under.

Boston's offense led the league in scoring by a mile last season, but it's only April. They've certainly gotten the job done so far on this home stand, averaging 4.9 runs per game while batting a collective .312, but this O/U line is high. Outside of Coors Field, you don't see many double digit totals. Snell doesn't have a large body of work against the Red Sox, but one positive sign is that Mookie Betts is 0 for 5 all-time against him. Note that the Under was 28-22-5 for Boston last year in day games. It's 5-3 this year and the lineup remains not at full strength. Hanley Ramirez left yday's game w/ a hamstring issue while Jackie Bradley Jr is still on the DL. Last year on Patriot's Day, the Sox lost 4-3 to Toronto. The year before they won 7-1 over Baltimore, but five of those runs scored were of the unearned variety. 

Wright is obviously key to this play. Having posted an unfathomable 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP thus far, those numbers can only come down. As stated earlier, his knuckleballer should be working better here in the daytime. If for some reason, it's another early exit for Wright (don't think it will be!), note the Boston bullpen has been pretty lights out to this point. They've posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP so far and those numbers have been even better on the homestand. Tampa Bay, by the way, is batting a paltry .203 on the road this year. They were one of the lower scoring offenses in all of MLB last season and project for a similar finish in 2017. The Red Sox' eight day games thus far have seen an average of just 7.6 rpg scored, so again, this number appears to be very inflated. 9* Under Rays/Red Sox

9* San Diego (1:35 ET): Thus far, it appears as if the unveiling of the Braves' new park (SunTrust Park) in suburban Cobb County was worth the wait. The home team has won the first two of this four-game set, Friday's opener being my *10* Game of the Week. But despite the Padres rather ominous projection for the year, I'm switching course Sunday and moving to them. They'll get to face Bartolo Colon here, a major reprieve after dealing w/ Julio Teheran and knuckleballer RA Dickey the L2 days. Despite being at a disadvantage on the mound, San Diego has been competitive the first two games of the series, even taking an early 2-0 lead yday. Remember - it's not like Atlanta is going to be some juggernaut this season. Good value here.

Today sees the Padres sending Trevor Cahill out to the bump. In his 1st start of '17, Cahill allowed three runs (only two earned) in five innings. But he and his team were overmatched in LA (1st series of the year) as +225 underdogs. You'll note Cahill hasn't pitched in 11 days. He landed on the DL w/ a back injury after throwing 99 pitches vs. the Dodgers (most in a start since '14). The time off should do him some good. The Braves lineup he'll be facing today is hardly formidable. In fact, Atlanta has yet to score more than five runs in any game this year! Day games have seen their bats get particularly anemic, averaging just 3.0 rpg as they're 0-3. 

The ageless wonder Colon looked good in his 1st start, which came against his former team, the Mets. But he struggled mightily on Tuesday as Miami hit him up for six runs in just four innings of work. Going back to the end of last year, the rotund righty has given up a home run in five consecutive outings. So far this year, San Diego has homered in every game but two, including twice yday in what is supposed to be a pretty hitter-friendly park. Atlanta's bullpen has been unusually good the L2 games and I'm not convinced that will continue. Eventually, Colon has to reach the "end of the line" as well and I seriously doubt he'll be able to match last season's renaissance when he went 15-8 w/ a 3.43 ERA, especially considering he's pitching for a bad team. 9* San Diego

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox were able to come in and beat the Twins yday despite scoring only two runs. Therefore, you have to like their chances today even though they'll be facing Ervin Santana. Santana has been the definition of 'lights out' in his two starts thus far, allowing just one run and four hits in 13 IP. His previous start came against these White Sox, opposite the very same pitcher he'll be facing again Saturday. That would be Jose Quintana, who pitched well himself. In this "immediate revenge" situation, I'll side w/ the dog as they're playing better of late and Minnesota's fast start, like a lot of other bad teams, has to be considered somewhat of a mirage.

When Santana and Quintana faced off Sunday, it was a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Santana threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball while Quintana allowed just two runs and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. Quintana struck out more hitters (7 to 4) while walking fewer, but he made one critical mistake, that being allowing a solo home run in the seventh. A rough Opening Day start for Quintana skews the fact that the southpaw had a career year in 2016, both in terms of ERA and strikeouts. Control will be the key to today's ballgame as no American League team has taken more walks so far than has Minnesota and that's been critical to their surprising success.

The White Sox are in the midst of a pretty severe teardown. But it's hard to lose games when you're not giving up many runs! Since an Opening Day loss in Detroit, they haven't allowed more than four in any game! They've allowed three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. For a Minnesota team that relies so heavily on its offense, that makes this a bad matchup. They're just 9-14 vs. the Pale Hose since the start of last season. Chicago comes in on a three-game win streak as it won at Cleveland twice earlier in the week. The Twins have now dropped three of four and have scored four runs or less in six of the past seven games. Good price on the underdog here. 8* Chi White Sox

10* Milwaukee (1:10 ET): So much for that fast start by Cincinnati. The Brewers have come to Great American Ballpark and taken the first two games of this four-game set in dominating fashion, winning 5-1 and 10-4. It's crucial to remember that the Reds were projected to be one of the very worst teams in baseball this year w/ the Padres probably the only team that received a bleaker outlook. Not much is expected from Milwaukee either, but so far they've clearly demonstrated that they are superior to their NL Central rival. They enter Saturday riding a four-game win streak as they also swept a quick two-game set in Toronto earlier in the week. Make it five straight! 

It has not been a great start to the season for today's Brew Crew starter, Zach Davies, who comes in w/ a 0-2 record after allowing a total of 11 runs his first two starts. But he had to face Colorado and the Cubs, two of the NL's more formidable offenses. Davies was the pitcher of record the last time the Brew Crew lost, which was 7-4 to the Cubs on Sunday. But there are signs of a turnaround, namely the fact he retired 12 of the final 13 hitters he saw in that outing. Craig Counsell has gone on the record, saying Davies has "elite command" w/ his fastball and I'll take the skipper's word for it. Run suppression has been key for the Brew Crew during this four-game run as they've allowed just eight runs total. The bullpen has been lights out w/ a 0.00 ERA and 0.550 WHIP! 

Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has a 2-0 record, but his WHIP is higher than his ERA and he received a ton of run support his last time out. The run support he got against Pittsburgh cannot always be counted upon and the WHIP being higher than the ERA is indicative of control issues. Sure enough, he walked five hitters (in just two innings!) at Pittsburgh Monday. He was really fortunate there that Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow was even worse and exhibited less control. They started out fine, but Reds relievers were a disaster last year and have already begun to regress. No surprise there as the fast start was a mirage. The team did win it's lone time after giving up 10+ runs this season, but they're just 10-20 in that situation since the start of 2015. 10* Milwaukee

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): This is a very big game for the Braves. On Friday, they become the last team in MLB to play their home opener. They've opened 2-6 on the road, so they'll be thankful to be back in Atlanta. Especially because this is the official open of a new park in Cobb County. SunTrust park promises to be pretty hitter-friendly as it's a short right field wall (in distance from home plate) and the wall itself is shorter in left. There is also far less foul territory here compared to Turner Field. The Braves did win yday, 5-4 over Miami, and I think this is going to be a big weekend for them. While he's been as hard luck as any pitcher in baseball the L2 seasons, I have no problem whatsoever putting all my eggs in starter Julio Teheran's basket. Look for Atlanta to win its home opener. 

San Diego was almost unanimously projected to be the worst team in either league this season. So it's certainly a surprise to see them open 5-5. They just took two of three from the Rockies at Coors Field. That's after taking two of three from the Giants, at home. But it's only a matter of time before this club falls off, somewhat dramatically. On paper, this is a much worse group than the one that won only 71 games in 2016 as a ton of salary was shed. For two years running, the Padres have been the worst hitting team in baseball. What's really scary is how "fortunate" they were LY to rank 21st in runs scored. That's because they also ranked 30th in team batting average, 30th in OBP and 28th in slugging. There are 30 teams in MLB, in case you have to be reminded. Wednesday marked only the 16th time the pitching staff has produced a shutout in the L3 seasons.

The fact that Teheran has a 10-22 team start record since the start of last season is nothing short of criminal. Last year, he finished w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, including 2.69 and 0.909 on the road. His TSR this year is 0-2 despite him not allowing a single earned run! He left a scoreless game w/ the Mets on Opening Day after six innings and the team somehow ended up losing 6-0. Then the bullpen could not protect a lead Teheran left them w/ against Pittsburgh on Sunday. It's "high time" for this very talented pitcher to start getting some "W's." He was 2-0 LY vs. San Diego w/ a 2.40 ERA and 16-1 KW rate in 15 IP. He'll be opposed here by Braves' castoff Jhoulys Chacin, who turned in a stunning performance Saturday opposite Madison Bumgarner. But Chacin allowed nine runs (in 3 1/3 IP) his first start and had a 5.40 ERA in five starts w/ Atlanta in 2016. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The reigning AL Champs came into 2017 favored to repeat and staked their claim as the top team in the Junior Circuit by sweeping the Rangers to start the season. But since then, they've dropped five of six - to the D'backs and White Sox. The lone win came in the home opener, 2-1, on Tuesday in extra innings. Now they welcome in a Detroit team that started 6-2 before getting beat up in its own right Thursday, 11-5 by Minnesota. So somebody has to bounce back Friday and my money is on the Tribe. They were 14-4 LY vs. the Tigers and there's just no way that they and specifically the offense stay down for much longer. 

Starter Josh Tomlin gave Cleveland next to nothing last night as he allowed five first inning runs, including a lead off homer. I expect far better tonight from Trevor Bauer, even though his 1st outing of 2017 hardly went well. Though he posted a 7-0 KW rate, Bauer allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings en route to the team losing 11-2 out in Arizona. Admittedly, his career marks against Detroit aren't great. But again, Cleveland dominated Detroit in 2016, outscoring them 106-71 and that's despite a late season 12-0 loss! It would certainly help Bauer if the Indians' lineup would start producing. Last year, they ranked 2nd in the AL in runs scored; so far they are 12th this year. But in an attempt to rectify that situation Lonnie Chisenhall finds his way into the batting order tonight in place of the ineffective Tyler Naquin.

Countering Bauer will be Daniel Norris, one of the four Tigers' pitchers to beat Cleveland last year. Norris was okay in his first start of 2017, allowing just three runs in 6+ innings, but the team lost and he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tigers' fans will want to point to the fact that their club has yet to drop B2B games. But there's a first time for everything and this weekend they're facing an opponent that simply has more talent. Something else worth mentioning is that Detroit's bullpen has generally been awful so far, posting a 7.06 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. 8* Cleveland

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): For me, this one is all about the pitching matchup and expected regression to the mean from last year. The Rays' Chris Archer was actually the biggest money-burner in baseball last season w/ a 10-23 TSR resulting in a loss of 15.6 units. But through two starts this year, he's looked quite good. I took him on Opening Day when he took down the Yankees, allowing just two runs over seven innings. He was actually even better last week vs. Toronto, whom he held to two runs (on only five hits) over 7 2/3 IP, even though he did not factor into the decision (Rays won 3-2). Meanwhile, Boston's Rick Porcello is coming off a stunning 22-win 2016 that netted him +13.4 units (#6 overall) and the American League Cy Young. Porcello has a 2-0 TSR this year, but has done so in spite of a 4.38 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. It's about time for his record to regress.

Tampa Bay's first road series of the season did not go well as they were swept by the Yankees to start the week. Boston is 4-1 in Fenway so far, including a come from behind effort yday afternoon (won 4-3) that I was fortunate enough to be on. But the Rays were in position to win each of the L2 days. Wednesday they led the Yanks 3-0 heading into the home half of the fifth while yday it was just two bad pitches, both resulting in Aaron Hicks' home runs, that doomed them. The bullpen posted an ugly 12.00 ERA and 2.67 WHIP in the Yankees series, but we shouldn't have to rely on them much here w/ Archer getting the baseball first. Last year's record was nowhere near indicative of his skill set and an improved pitching motion has led to 13 strikeouts in his first two starts of 2017.

There is just no way that Porcello is going to be able to duplicate his 2016. The Red Sox have won 19 of his last 22 starts, but that's due to start trending the other way. He was 5-0 in six starts vs. TB last year, but I'll point to the fact that he was shaky his last time on the mound, giving up four runs and 11 hits at Detroit on Sunday, a game where he did not factor into the decision. I readily admit that Archer has had his fair share of troubles against Boston in the past, going 1-11 w/ a 5.38 ERA. But Boston's offense has been nowhere near as fearsome thus far compared to last year. As alluded to earlier in the analysis, the Red Sox were a bit fortunate to win yday afternoon as they had to rally back from a 3-1 deficit against the Pirates (scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth). Not since opening 2-0 have the Sox won B2B games. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Toronto (7:07 ET): Needless to say, it has NOT been the start to the season that the Blue Jays had hoped for. They're 1-7 (worst record in baseball) and have lost five in a row. They come in off B2B embarrassing home losses to Milwaukee. So why endorse them? Well, regression to the mean is certainly likely. Especially, for starter Francisco Liriano, whose ERA and WHIP can ONLY go down following a disastrous first outing where he allowed five runs while getting only one out. Fortunately here, he'll be opposed by Kevin Gausman, who hasn't exactly had a stellar start to 201 either. While they won in Boston yday, I remain skeptical of the Orioles this season. 

Though off to the worst start in franchise history, it's not as if Toronto is being dominated. Four of their losses have been by one run and all but one by three runs or fewer. They opened the year by dropping a pair of games at Camden Yards, 3-2 and 3-1. So revenge is in the air tonight at Rogers Centre. Prior to yday, the Baltimore lineup had been struggling every bit as much as Toronto's. They hit four homers yday, which seems like an unsustainable blueprint. Entering yday's game, they had just five home runs in the first six games and were batting a collective .215. On the Toronto side, I do see an offensive surge on the horizon. There's too much talent in this lineup for them to be down for so long.

The Orioles have won both of Gausman's starts thus far, but it was no thanks to him. In 10 IP, he's allowed six runs and 13 hits while also walking seven. That works out to a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. He's been fortunate in that the bullpen hasn't given up a single run in either of his two starts. He threw only 12 first-pitch strikes against 24 hitters against the Yankees on Saturday and even committed a balk. As bad as Liriano was in his first start, it was the shortest of his career, and he's likely to bounce back. 10* Toronto

8* Boston (2:05 ET): Both of these teams are licking their wounds right now after their last series. The Red Sox had to settle for a split w/ Baltimore after losing 12-5 yday, a game in which knuckleballer Steven Wright simply didn't "have it." However, what happened to the Pirates (at home!) at the hands of Cincinnati was far worse. The Bucs were actually swept by the Reds to start the week, getting outscored 22-5 in the process. With runners in scoring position, Pirate hitters went 0 for 23 in the series. Given those results, I can't imagine things going too well for them at Fenway Park today in what is a make up for a rainout last Thursday. Boston won the other two games of that series and today, I'll call for them to make it a "sweep" over their NL visitors.

It's the same pitching matchup here as was originally scheduled for last Thursday. For Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez ended up facing Detroit last Saturday and did not fare well, giving up four runs in five innings. He allowed two home runs as well. But with the Pirates bats beyond anemic at this point, Rodriguez should be in line for a nice bounce back outing. Pittsburgh is 0-3 already this season against left-handed starters. The Bucs will counter w/ Chad Kuhl, who put a TON of runners on base Saturday against Atlanta thanks to issuing six walks in five innings. Somehow, Pittsburgh still ended up winning that game, 6-4, but clearly that's not a recipe for success. 

Looking for evidence that the Red Sox will bounce back? Well, look no further than a 17-9 record the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, after the flu ravaged the clubhouse, the team is now starting to get healthier. Rodriguez will be leaned upon heavily here due to the high bullpen usage yday, but Robbie Ross Jr (one of several players affected by the flu) may return to help out if need be. Yesterday was the Sox first loss at Fenway. The offense still pounded out 26 hits in the two games vs. Orioles pitching. Including the two wins over Pittsburgh last week, Boston is now 29-13 vs. the National League this L3 seasons. 8* Boston

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Mariners and the division rival Astros have played a large role in that. This will already be the seventh head to head meeting of 2017 and so far Houston has gone 4-2. That includes a 7-5 win here at Safeco Field last night. It was a game Seattle actually led though, 3-2 going into the sixth inning. But that's when the wheels came off. With two outs in that frame, two unlucky bounces went against the M's. The first was an infield hit that loaded the bases. The next was a line drive off the glove of RF Mitch Haniger that cleared them. The Astros ended up setting a season-high in both runs and hits. That's interesting because George Springer has four leadoff home runs in nine games! I'll call for Springer and the Astros not to get the lucky bounces tonight and to cool off. 

Seattle did take Monday's series opener by a score of 6-0, for the record. But they are just 2-7 overall now, including a horrible loss on Sunday where they blew a six-run lead in the ninth to the Angels. That's one of three one-run losses so far, not to mention there was last night and a 13-inning loss back in Houston. Despite losing four of the six head to head matchups w/ Houston, the M's have played them relatively even. In fact, the two teams have scored an identical number of runs against one another in the six games (19). Last night marked the first time that the Astros were able to score more than three times in nine innings against Mariners pitching.

Starting tonight for the home side will be veteran Yovani Gallardo. His 1st start of '17 did not go that well. He allowed three runs in five innings as the team fell 5-1 to the Angels. Allowing 10 baserunners isn't exactly ideal, but Gallardo should pitch better here. I say that because he has a 15-5 career record vs. Houston w/ a 3.15 ERA. Starting opposite him will be Michael Fiers, who was a hard luck loser to Kansas City in his first start. But like Gallardo, Fiers did give up a home run in his first start. He also had control issues w/ three walks. I look for Seattle's offense to come alive here.  10* Seattle

8* Minnesota Run Line (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Twins +1.5. A 100+ loss team a year ago, the Twins opened 2017 by winning five of their first six games. They lost yday by a 2-1 margin, which obviously would have been a winner via the RL. By far, the most surprising Minnesota-related thing this season has been the pitching staff. With the exception of one game, they've allowed three runs or less. In fact, they are currently #1 in MLB in runs allowed w/ only 15. This is a massive turnaround considering LY they were last in the league on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Not sure how long the pitching prowess lasts, but today the club will do no worse than a one-run loss in the Motor City. 

The Tigers are also now 5-2 having won four of five at home. But three of those victories have come by a one-run margin. Yesterday saw starter Matthew Boyd take a no-hitter into the sixth inning. However, that almost wasn't enough as the Tigers offense managed only four hits for the game themselves (Twins finished w/ five). The home team's only runs scored both came on a James McCann home run in the fifth. Starting here will be Michael Fulmer, who I expect to regress in 2017 despite a strong first showing. Fulmer threw six scoreless innings of four hit ball last week vs. Boston, but did not factor into the decision due to the bullpen blowing a four-run lead. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Fulmer now has a 9-0 TSR in his career when he does NOT factor into the decision.

Starting this afternoon for Minnesota will be Kyle Gibson. He too got a no-decision in his 1st start of 2017, but unlike Fulmer, did not pitch that well. He gave up three runs in just five innings of work. That said, the first four innings were scoreless. The Tigers are a familiar opponent for him as this will be the 11th time he's faced them. Detroit has homered in every game this season, but other than that hasn't done much hitting. Only twice have they finished a game w/ more than six hits. To me, Fulmer was fortunate to have his WL record last year and is due to drop some games, starting here. 8* Minnesota Run Line (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates' confounding struggles w/ the Reds continued yday w/ an ugly 7-1 loss here at PNC Park. They now have a losing record vs. Cincy the L3 seasons and are just 10-10 against them since the start of last season despite the Reds having the worst record in the Senior Circuit during that time. The issue Monday was a complete lack of control from starter Tyler Glasnow, who walked five (including four straight in the 1st inning!) and barely threw 50% of his pitches for strikes. Cincinnati starter Brandon Finnegan wasn't very good either, but his ineffectiveness was offset by a shocking performance by the bullpen, which didn't allow a single baserunner! That's a huge departure from LY when the Reds' bullpen was the worst in baseball. 

Cincy is now 5-2, but I remain skeptical of them and the bullpen. In the L6 games, they've posted three shutouts and gave up only the one run yday. But I don't think that's sustainable. Certainly not w/ tonight's starter Rookie Davis on the bump. The appropriately named pitcher (he's a rookie!) was hit hard in his '17 debut, giving up four runs and five hits in just three innings of work. Somehow the Reds were able to come back and win that game, 7-4, but the opponent was the Phillies and it was at home. That game not only saw another shocking performance by the bullpen, but one of its members, Michael Lorenzen, became the 1st pitcher in eight years to hit a pinch-hit HR. Again, I do not think the blueprint is sustainable for a Reds team that lost 94 games a year ago. 

Pittsburgh will counter tonight w/ the highly touted Jameson Tallion. The problems w/ Glasnow yday should not be present again here. Tallion dominated the Red Sox in his 1st start of '17 by throwing seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. That's quite the impressive performance there. Tallion has worked against the Reds twice before and has given up just 4 ER in 11 IP. Last night marked the Bucs' first home loss of the season and after being embarrassed I feel it's only logical that they respond and take the middle game of this three-game set. The Reds have lost over 100 road games since the start of 2015. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Boston (7:10 ET): Baltimore became the last team in MLB to lose a game when they fell Sunday, 7-3, to the Yankees. Buck Showalter continues to defy the skeptics in the analytics community by getting the Orioles to overachieve, seemingly year after year. But I don't like the O's chances here at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Granted, the host Red Sox had to play yday and lost for the third time in four games to the Tigers. But they won both home games (Pittsburgh) so far and you have to believe the offense is going to break out sooner, rather than later. 

Dylan Bundy was shockingly good in his first start of the year for Baltimore. Pitching last Wedneday vs. Toronto, he allowed just one run and four hits across seven innings. He also struck out eight and didn't walk anybody. But Bundy has not fared well in the past against Boston as his ERA is 6.53 in seven games. Sure, the lack of availablity of Zach Britton and Brad Brach is what cost the O's in their first loss (Darren O'Day gave up four runs in the ninth Sunday), but it should be pointed out that the club has yet to play a single road game. Over the L2 seasons, they are just 71-92 away from Camden Yards. 

Boston turns to Drew Pomeranz, who will be making his first start of '17. He had been bothered by an elbow issue and, truth be told, didn't have a very effective Spring. But I can see him bouncing back here against a Baltimore lineup that has been held to just three runs in three of its five games. Like I said earlier, it's also just a matter of time before the vaunted Red Sox offense gets going. The lineup has been ravaged by the flu, but is now getting healthier and Xander Bogaerts is expected back in the lineup tonight. This is a cheap price on the Red Sox at home and I'll jump on it. 10* Boston

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just read how the Pirates' Clint Hurdle is currently the odds on favorite to the first manager fired this season. Why would that be? I expect the Bucs to show improvement here in 2017 and they just swept the Braves over the weekend here at PNC Park. Perhaps it's the team's peculiar struggles against Cincinnati that has chipped away at Hurdle's support? The Bucs were just 10-9 head to head against the Reds last season and actually have a losing record against them the L2 seasons. Cincy has obviously been one of the worst teams in baseball during this time, so the fact Pittsburgh hasn't been able to take advantage of that is certainly disappointing. But I believe they will here in what should be a relatively easy game and series. 

Now the Reds did win yday, 8-0 in St. Louis, and have started 4-2. They took two of three from both the Phillies and Cardinals and have shockingly delivered a trifecta of shutouts over the L5 games. This from the team that gave up - by far - the most runs in the entire National League a season ago. Coming into 2017, they were thought to be in a "dogfight" w/ the Padres to see who would finish with the worst record in the Senior Circuit. Pitching tonight will be the author of one of those three shutouts, Brandon Finnegan, whose was arguably the most impressive. He threw seven innings of one-hit ball against the Phillies last Wednesday, finishing w/ 9 K's. However, I would not expect that kind of success from him on a regular basis. When he faced Pittsburgh last September, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up five runs. 

The Bucs counter here w/ Tyler Glasnow, who will be making his season debut. It's not as if the Reds hit well last week in Philadelphia (.215 team BA), so I look for a quality start from Glasnow. He should also get ample support from an offense that scored five or more runs in all three games vs. Atlanta. Also, let's not forget just how bad Cincinnati's bullpen was last year. It's only a matter of time before that group starts melting down again. I think that all things considered, this is a pretty cheap price to go against a team that lost 94 games a year ago, especially on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

8* San Francisco (4:35 ET): Finding these teams at opposite ends of the NL West spectrum certainly is no surprise, but the respective placements certainly aren't what was expected. Arizona, coming off a terrible 93-loss season in which it was outscored by 138 runs, has opened 6-1. Meanwhile, perennial pennant contenders San Francisco find themselves at 2-5 and in last place. These disparate record of course include the D'backs taking three of four last week at Chase Field. They got to stay home over the weekend where the shockingly swept Cleveland. The Giants, who have yet to play a home game, avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep w/ a 5-3 win in San Diego Sunday. I now look for them to find sustained success as the scene shifts to their pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.

This afternoon's pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker vs. Matt Moore is a rematch from last Wednesday's 8-6 win by Arizona. Moore was hit hard, allowing eight hits in 5 1/3 IP, five of them doubles. But three of the six runs allowed were of the unearned variety. Walker didn't exactly pitch well either for the D'backs as he gave up four runs on seven hits. Of the two, I believe Moore is the more likely to improve here. He was basically undone by one bad inning last week and remember this is a more pitcher friendly park. Moore improved both his ERA and strikeout numbers after coming over from Tampa Bay last year. He set career bests in starts & innings pitched in 2016. As for Walker, he allowed runs in three of his six innings of work last week and struggled to put up decent numbers when he was w/ Seattle, another team that plays in a pitcher friendly park. 

The Giants offense has been somewhat of a disaster thus far, particularly their outfielders. The LF position entered yday's game at 0 for 22 w/ 11 K's. That's why Melvin Upton, Jr was signed. It can't get any worse, so expect improved production there. Also, the bullpen cost the team three games in the first week. Two of those were against the D'backs, both games seeing them blow three run leads. So don't be too fooled about Arizona taking three of those four games. This is their best start in franchise history, so expect them to fall off very shortly. Of the two, the Giants have been much better in day games over the L3 seasons. 8* San Francisco

8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Colorado has taken the first two of this three game set, so that begats the question: is this team for real? Some (not me) feel this can be somewhat of a darkhorse in the National League this season. They've opened 5-1 and what's surprising is that their last three wins have all come w/o much offense. The lineup has never been a question w/ this team, but the pitching has. Shockingly, they've limited the Dodgers to just three runs so far here at Coors Field, but I believe that's about to change. Sunday's starter Tyler Anderson was a very fortunate winner in his first start as he gave up five runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 IP last Tuesday in Milwaukee. Give me Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers in this one. 

Anderson is a good ground-ball pitcher and has a 1.83 career ERA vs. the Dodgers. But it's still a limited sample size w/ him and he certainly did not look good in his first start of 2017. It's also promising that the Dodgers have averaged a healthy 8.3 runs in three days games so far. Following a loss, they remain 85-64 the L3 seasons, so it was surprising to see them fall yday, especially w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The Rockies became the first team to EVER hit B2B home runs off the Dodgers' ace and that proved to be the difference in the game. But lost in the excitement of the Rockies' pitching prowess is the fact they have scored only nine runs total the previous four games. They had scored just five in three games prior to yday's 4-2 win. 

Maeda was the only Dodgers starter to drop a game in the last series, but that was hardly all his fault as the offense was shut out. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado (1.93 ERA in four starts) and while Coors Field is hardly a "friendly" environment, it's not as if Dodger pitching has struggled so far here (aside from Kershaw allowing the B2B HR's). The Dodgers' bullpen has also been sharp so far, allowing only two runs in 18+ IP. The Rockies' on base percentage thus far is only .318.  I'll call for LA to avoid the sweep here. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Texas (3:05 ET): Like many in the analytics community, I earmarked the Rangers as a pretty clear "regression" team for 2017. After all, last year they somehow won 95 games despite outscoring their opponents by a mere EIGHT runs! I played against them in the Cleveland series, which saw them get swept at home. Friday brought the first win of the season, 10-5 over Oakland, but then yday the reigning AL West Champs suffered a somewhat shocking 6-1 loss to the A's despite the presence of Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish was outdueled by Kendall Graveman, who took a no-hit bit into the seventh. I expect more offense today, particular from the home side, who I believe will win the series. Oakland has both struggled against lefties and in day games the previous two seasons.

When I played against the Rangers in that first series w/ Cleveland, the pitcher I targeted was Martin Perez. He actually pitched relatively well though, only allowing three runs over six innings. His career numbers against Oakland (5.16 ERA) may not be sharp, but the last time he faced them (last August), he held them to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. The A's have surprised me by scoring 16 runs total the L3 games, but I don't envision seeing that kind of offensive production from them over the course of the season. The top of the their order remains a major question mark as original leadoff man Rajai Davis has been hideous so far (.167) and his replacement, Marcus Semien, hasn't been much better (.235) despite drawing a team-high six walks. 

For the first time in his career Sean Manaea opened the year on a big-league roster. But that's more a reflection on the current state of the Oakland roster than Manaea's actual skill set. Today's starter gave up four runs in his 1st outing of 2017 and has a 4.18 career ERA vs Texas. I think it's only a matter of time before this Rangers' offense gets going. Carlos Gomez,  Shin Soo-Choo and Delino DeShields have all demonstrated an ability to get on base while Nomar Mazara is also certainly giving a lot of production. As firm as I am in my belief that Texas will regress from last year, they are still a whole heck of a lot better than an A's team I project for last place in the division. 10* Texas

10* Houston (7:10 ET): After a 3-0 start, the Astros looked every bit of the World Series contender that many, myself included, thought them to be. But they've now dropped B2B games, including the series opener to the Royals last night. Offense has been a bit of an issue for the presumed AL West favorites thus far as four of the five games have seen them held to three runs or fewer (they scored only 1 run last night). The one exception was an extra inning game that saw them win on a walk-off homer. But fortunately for tonight, they have ace Dallas Keuchel on the bump. Keuchel has always excelled here at Minute Maid Park, including the season opener on Monday where I backed him and he held Seattle to just two hits over seven scoreless innings. I look for more of that here against a Royals team I don't have much respect for.

Kansas City's season did not start well. They were swept in Minnesota, a team that lost 100+ games last year. Two years removed from winning the World Series, it would appear that the Royals' championship window has closed. They are significantly weaker in all aspects from LY's team that finished .500, but was outscored by 31 runs. The starting rotation was hit by the tragic passing of Yordano Ventura. The bullpen is no longer what it once was and a lineup that could once get on base w/ the best of 'em has lost key pieces as well.

Danny Duffy starts tonight for KC. While the bullpen was to blame for the team losing his 1st start, I expect Duffy to regress from LY when he went 12-3 in 26 starts. While he didn't drop a single decision at home (7-0), he was only 5-3 on the road. Also, he did not finish strong, going 1-6 (TSR) his L7 starts w/ a 6.37 ERA and 1.585 WHIP. He has a 4.94 ERA in four career starts in Houston. Meanwhile, Keuchel is just two years removed from a 16-0 record here at Minute Maid Park. It's not as if the Royals hit the cover off the ball in their first series as they managed only five runs in the three games. With neither team hitting well in the early going, this one will be largely dependent on the starters and that's a big edge to the Astros. If it goes the respective bullpens, they have the edge there as well. 10* Houston

10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): Twenty one games seperated these two American League East rivals in the standings last season. For 2017, the projections are for them to be a lot closer. Toronto lost several key pieces from last year's Wild Card team, David Price and Edwin Encarnacion chief among them, and is thus likely to regress closer to .500. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is a team that many (myself included) have tabbed as one of the most improved teams in baseball. They were nowhere near as bad as the record showed LY. What happened was that they were a MLB-worst 13-26 in one-run games. Improvement has already started to take hold as they're 3-2 so far. I was on them in both wins over the Yankees and off last night's 10-8 win, I'll throw my support behind them again here.

This will be the second time Chris Archer is getting the baseball this season. I backed him in the Rays' season opener Sunday as he held the Yanks to just two runs over seven innings. He also got plenty of support w/ his lineup chasing Masahiro Tanaka from the game early. In my analysis for that game, I was pretty clear that I thought Archer was in line for a bounce back season after finishing LY at -15.6 units (worst in MLB!). Archer's skill set is still strong as he exhibited against Sunday. His 2nd half LY was far better than the 1st and improvement is only natural after a career-worst year in terms of record and ERA. But remember, despite a 3-10 record at home last season, his ERA was 2.65. The culprit was the worst run support in MLB. Archer certainly hasn't needed much run support in the past vs. Toronto, whom he's held to 2 ER in 10 of 11 starts.

Opposing Archer here will be Aaron Sanchez. This will be the latter's season debut and he's looking to build off a strong 2016. But unlike Archer, I've earmarkd Sanchez for regression. He has pitched well in the past vs. the Rays, but the sample size is relatively small. Also, he's going to be leaned on heavily here after the Jays bullpen was called into action early yday due to a disastrous start from Francisco Liriano. Sanchez finished w/ a 16-2 record LY, but he was fortunate to do so as he posted a 4.14 ERA over his L7 starts. A 9-1 road record is unlikely to be repeated. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox and Tigers played back and forth affair yday afternoon here at Comerica Park. The opener of this three-game set saw Detroit initially take a 4-0 lead, only to give it all away in the top of the eighth (trailed 5-4) and then reclaim the advantage in the bottom half of the frame. I was on Boston and while they came up short, I'll back them again as they're the better team and certainly a value at this price. I was certainly shocked to see Michael Fulmer hold the Boston bats in check Friday. Needless to say, I don't believe today's starter for the Tigers (Jordan Zimmerman) will be able to do the same. Yes, the flu has ravaged the Red Sox lineup, but even so, they're the better team here. They had the chance to win yday; today they get the job done.

Starting here for the visitors will be Eduardo Rodriguez. He posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 14 starts after the All-Star Break last season. He has faced the Tigers twice previously and posted a 2.92 ERA. Something worth noting is that the Tigers' lineup has been outhit in every game thus far. They've certainly made the most of the hits they have gotten, scoring a total of 14 runs off 18 hits. Of course, a key has also been drawing a ton of walks. Through three games, Tigers' hitters have drawn a total of 19 free passes. That number is pretty incredible. Fortunately, Rodriguez generally exhibited good control last year. I feel that the Tigers' offense is due for a "off day" at the plate here.

Boston's offense will see Jordan Zimmerman. After a strong April last year, Zimmerman fell apart and finished w/ a 4.97 ERA. He has a 6.06 career ERA vs. the Red Sox. Yesterday was Boston's first loss remember. They allowed twice as many runs as they did in the first two games combined vs. Pittsburgh. Earlier I mentioned the flu bug that has swept through the Red Sox clubhouse. Well, Zimmerman was also sick earlier in the week. Tigers' hitters struggled the last time they saw a southpaw and should again here. 8* Boston

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Pardon the terrible pun, but I belive the Redbirds are flying a little bit under the radar entering 2017. In terms of expectations, I can't remember the last time they were this low. To be clear, "low" still means an above .500 finish, but w/ the Cubs ascension to the mountain top last year, St. Louis has become almost an afterthought in the NL Central. But I certainly believe this can be a Wild Card team as they're just two years removed from winning 100 games. They outscored opponents by 67 runs last season and that was w/ the pitching staff regressing. In terms of opponent, this weekend represents a massive drop in class as they go from facing the Cubs to the Reds. Cincinnati is probably the second worst team in all of baseball (San Diego) and I put little to no stock into the fact they were able to go 2-1 in their first series, which was against Philadelphia.

The Cards played the Cubs tough for three games. They took the season opener and then lost 2-1 on Monday. Yesterday's game saw them jump out to a 3-0 lead after one inning, but a four-run seventh decided things and the Cubs won 6-4. Mike Leake gets the baseball tonight, looking to rebound from a subpar 2016, which included two rough starts against the Reds, his former team. But, by all accounts, Leake looked a lot better in the spring. The Cincinnati lineup he'll face here is far from formidable outside of Joey Votta. After scoring only five runs in the first two games, the Reds busted loose for seven in yday's win, but it was an unlikely source that provided the difference in the game. Relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen was the one who gave his team the lead for good w/ a solo HR in the sixth. As you might guess, this is not a deep team and there's a lot of replacement level talent on hand. 

Cincinnati was bailed out by its bullpen yday as starter Rookie Davis (who is a rookie!) was not good. But I don't think Reds' fans should be counting on their relief pitching this season. Last year, this group was a disaster, posting the highest non-Colorado ERA in all of baseball while also giving up the most runs. I don't have much faith in tonight's rookie starter Amir Garrett against a Cardinals lineup that was quite productive last season. Garrett is also a southpaw and St. Louis typically hits those quite well. This is a relatively cheap price to go against one of the worst teams in baseball, especially on the road. 8* St. Louis

8* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The defending World Series Champs lost on Opening Day, but that was no reason to panic as they rebounded to take two from St. Louis. They stay on the road this weekend to take on another division rival, this one thought to be far less formidable. Milwaukee has opened its season by dropping three of four (at home) to Colorado, so even though it's still April, I'm a bit surprised that the ML isn't higher here. The Brew Crew actually gave the Cubbies a little bit of trouble in 2016, going 8-11 (+3.3 units) head to head, but my view is that this series - and specifically tonight's series opener - is likely to go Chicago's way.

The Cubs' offense finally woke up in the top of the seventh yday, turning a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. That score ended up being the final as the offense nearly matched its production from the first two games combined in that one inning. Kris Bryant has started the year 0 for 13, but it's only a matter of time before that gets turned around. How about here against the Brewers' Jimmy Nelson, who finished last year by going 3-13 w/ a 5.79 ERA his final 21 starts. Cactus League play didn't go much better for Nelson as he turned in a 4.58 ERA in five appearances. While all three losses to Colorado were close, the Brewers' bullpen was hardly stellar, posting a 1.530 WHIP in the opening series. Nelson is 1-6 in 10 career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Though this game takes place in Miller Park, expect the Cubs to enjoy significant fan support as their fanbase is not shy about going up I-94 and turning this place into "Wrigley North." That's what happens when one franchise is enjoying its peak years and the other is downtrodden. One player unfamiliar w/ the surroundings will be Cubs starter Brett Anderson, who came over from the Dodgers in the offseason. He missed virtually all of last year w/ a back injury. But Anderson represents a great "buy low" move by the Cubs front office as their #5 starter. Two years ago, he led all of baseball w/ a 67% groundball rate. Milwaukee was held to just one run yday on five hits and advanced only three runners into scoring position the entire game. This should be an easy one for the Cubbies. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros missed out on a chance to start the year 4-0, losing to the Mariners last night 4-2. They were oh so close to the sweep, but after holding Seattle hitters to 1 for 27 w/ RISP, the game was decided in the top of the ninth as the road team scored twice. Still, many (myself included) consider this to be a legit World Series contender and I think they should bounce back rather easily tonight against the Royals. Two years ago, these teams met in the playoffs w/ KC winning in rather memorable fashion. They would, of course, go on to win the World Series. But much has changed since that time, primarily w/ the Royals. This was not a good team last year (-31 run differential) and they were just swept by the Twins to start the year. I look for Houston to roll here.

While I didn't play yday's game, the Astros' first three games all led to a winning ticket for myself. The first two games, I took them. I had the Under Wednesday. For the series, the pitching staff held Seattle to a total of just eight runs and remember two of those came in the ninth yday. Also consider that Wednesday's game went 13 innings. This promises to be a strong pitching staff - whether you're talking the starting rotation or the bullpen. Getting the baseball tonight will be Michael Fiers. Likely to be a long reliever once Colin McHugh returns from the disabled list, Fiers is nevertheless a solid option here. His strikeout numbers were down last year, but KC just whiffed 19 times in the L2 games and managed only seven runs total in the first series against a Twins' pitching staff most would regard as one of the worst in all of baseball. So I expect Fiers to pitch well tonight.

The Royals appear to be in a lot of trouble. I played against them yesterday as they managed their highest scoring output thus far, but that was still only three runs. They were outscored in the first two games 16-2. Again, that was against a Twins team that lost 100+ games LY. In yday's analysis, I noted that this team was very fortunate to finish .500 last year given the aforementioned run differential. They enter 2017 weaker in every single aspect of the game. Starter Jason Vargas made only three starts last year as he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Regardless of how he performs here, the once mighty KC bullpen has become a major issue as it was responsible for allowing 14 runs in the Twins series. With the offense also scuffling, right now KC is a clear "play against" for me, especially when facing one of the best teams in baseball. 8* Houston

10* Boston (1:05 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate for either of these teams in their respective first series of the season. But the weather proved to be all that could stop the Red Sox as they took both games they played against Pittsburgh (yesterday postponed). Meanwhile, the Tigers had to settle for a split in Chicago after losing yday in humiliating fashion 11-2. Two of the scheduled four games in that series were not played (Monday, Weds). Boston is of course projected to be one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not all of MLB, while Detroit is likely to be spending its year looking up at Cleveland w/ the rest of the AL Central. That makes the visitors look really attractive at this price, especially w/ my belief that today's Tigers' starter (Michael Fulmer) is due to regress big-time here in 2017.

Fulmer finished in the top 10 in units earned last season at +13.2. But that was thanks in large part to the team going 8-0 in games where he did NOT factor into the decision. He won Rookie of the Year due to a 3.06 ERA and 1.119 WHIP, but skill-sets (specifically strikeout rate) indicate his ERA probably should have been a full-point higher. Here, he'll have to deal w/ what was the most productive offense in all of baseball last season. Not only were the Red Sox #1 in runs scored in 2016, they were #1 in on base percentage as well. Fulmer faced them twice and ironically it was the start here at home that marked his worst of the entire year. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 and the Tigers lost 10-2. 

Detroit certainly didn't look good yday afternoon in an 11-2 loss to the lowly White Sox. While starter Matthew Boyd obviously didn't fare well, neither did the Tigers hitters, who managed just four hits for the game. Boston won a pair of low-scoring games over Pittsburgh, including 3-0 in 12 innings Wednesday, and I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before their offense breaks out. Starter Steven Wright was solid last year w/ a 3.33 ERA in 24 starts. Counterpart Fulmer has admitted to not having any experience pitching in cold temperatures and I believe that will lead to the Tigers dropping their home opener. 10* Boston

8* Washington (4:05 ET): The Nats are going for a sweep here. I don't think that result would surprise anyone considering the respective states of these two NL East foes. Washington comes in favored to repeat as division champs while Miami is still trying to pick up the pieces following the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. The first two games of this series have seen the Marlins remain fairly competitive, but I'm definitely surprised that the Nats aren't in a higher price range. The passing of Fernandez obviously leaves a massive and unfillable void in the Marlins' starting rotation and depth will be an issue. We see that here w/ them having to trot out Tom Koehler in the third game of the year, opposite Washington's Gio Gonzalez. This should be an easy one for the home team.

Miami blew its chance to steal a game in this series yesterday. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but after that didn't do much. It was a 5-2 game (in favor of the Nats) after four innings and the Marlins didn't score again until the eighth. I'd be surprised if the road team got the lead at all here today. Sure, Gonzalez is coming off a career-worst season in terms of ERA. But he did well in his lone start vs. Miami, allowing just a pair of unearned runs in a 5-3 win over Koehler. The Marlins struck out 10 times yday and aside from the first inning, the bats were pretty silent. 

Koehler has not done well in the past against Washington, posting a 4.50 ERA in five career starts. He is coming off a 9-13 season where his ERA was 4.33. A real problem for him here will be Bryce Harper. In 32 career at-bats vs. Koehler, Harper has hit six home runs. Another positive sign out of the Nats' lineup is Ryan Zimmerman, who is off to a .427 start after hitting a career-worst .218 last year. Matt Wieters also collected three hits yday. Going back to the end of last year, Miami has lost four straight times in this park. 8* Washington

10* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The consensus on the Royals coming into the year was that not only has the "championship window" closed, but the club simply isn't very good anymore. Their first two games have certainly done nothing to dispel that notion. They've been outscored 16-2 (losses of 7-1 and 9-1) by a Twins team that lost 100+ games in 2016. Literally, no aspect of the game has gone well for KC. Their pitching staff has been a disaster, issuing 16 walks. Even the once mighty bullpen has fallen as Royals relievers are responsible for 12 of the 16 runs allowed. Meanwhile, the Twins' bullpen has been simply lights out. They've yet to allow a single run and yesterday saw them hold the Royals w/o a hit after the sixth inning. I'll call for the sweep here.

The concern w/ Minnesota is always their poor starting pitching. Year after year, this staff consistently ranks among the very worst in strikeout rate. But through two games against the Royals, they've been able to induce 13 K's including nine yday. Kyle Gibson goes this afternoon. He did not have a great 2016 by any means w/ a 1-8 record here at Target Field. But I expect improvement here. It's not like the Royals are hitting well right now. Gibson's final start of '16 was against KC and he struck out eight in a 7-6 Twins' win. Being a righty he should fare well against the Royals' left-handed hitters, who were a collective 1 of 14 at the plate yday. Acquired in the offseason, catcher Jason Castro is an upgrade behind the plate in terms of pitch framing. As detailed above, we should also be in good hands w/ the Minnesota bullpen.

One aspect of the Twins that I have no concern over is the offense. They've scored 16 runs in two games, which is a carryover from last year's strong effort at the plate. Despite the terrible record, the Twins scored their most runs in a season since 2010. There is a ton of young talent here, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton chief amont them. So I'll call for Royals starter Jason Hammel to struggle this afternoon. Last year, Hammel was far worse on the road than he was at Kauffman Stadium w/ his ERA jumping nearly three full points. Remember that the Royals were very lucky to finish at .500 LY as they were outscored by 30+ runs. Their days of dominating the Twins are over. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): So far, I'm 2 for 2 in this series, having taken the Astros both games. Tonight, I pivot to the Under. Seattle has scored all of one run this season in what has been an ugly start. Really, I'm not surprised as last year saw this team benefit from a number of career or near career years from older players. Meanwhile, Houston is hardly hitting the cover off the ball in this series. They've scored a total of five runs, four of them coming from solo home runs. They actually had only five hits in last night's win. Tonight marks the first of what will be four consecutive games vs. lefties. M's starter James Paxton had a solid finish to last season and I think that carries over here. As much as I like the current makeup of the Astros, I remain concerned on the offense's overreliance on the long ball. Take the Under. 

Last September, Paxton faced Houston twice and both times he allowed 3 ER or less. He allowed just five runs total in 11 IP. This is a pitcher who posted a 1.12 WHIP after the All-Star Break. With the offense scuffling so badly right now, the team is clearly going to be leaning on Paxton here. Something else I like about Paxton is his control. In only one of his 20 starts last year did he walk more than two batters. In September, he closed w/ a 35-4 KW rate over five starts. With only seven hits this year not being home runs (all singles), I'm not that concerned w/ the Astros offense right now.

Houston will counter w/ veteran Charlie Morton here. While not as impressive as either Dallas Keuchel or Lance McCullers (Astros' first two starters this year), that's not too important given Seattle's offensive ineptitude. It took 12+ innings for the M's to get on the board this year. Morton will also be backed by what could wind up being the best bullpen in the game. In six of the last 10 games played vs. Houston, Seattle has scored one run or fewer. 8* Under Mariners/Astros

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The market seems to have really shifted against the Rays here following a 5-0 loss last night to the Yankees. But let's not forget that it was TB that took the season opener on Sunday (I was on 'em!), knocking around Masahiro Tanaka en route to a 7-3 triumph. I'm back on the home side again today as they once again find themselves in a quite favorable price range. As I stated in my analysis Sunday, the Rays should be among the most improved clubs in the A.L this year, if not all of baseball. They were far better than last year's record, which was a byproduct of a league worst 13-27 mark in one run games. Meanwhile, despite having some nice young pieces such as Gary Sanchez, the Yankees remain an old team that is as overvalued as ever. 

The Yankees, in sharp contrast to Tampa Bay, went 24-12 in one-run contests last year. Only Texas, who was a historically great 36-11 in such affairs, could claim to be "luckier" in 2016. The disparate records in one-run games is why the Yanks finished 16 games ahead of the Rays in the standings last year. But note that the respective run differentials were pretty similar! A couple of home runs, one from a very unlikely contributor (5'7" Ronald Torreyes), were the key yday. The bullpen also pitched five scoreless frames. But w/o Andrew Miller, I expect Pinstripe relievers to be not as effective this year as they were last. The bottom of the batting order won't be as prolific today either.

Offense was a problem for Tampa Bay all of last year and that reared its ugly head in last night's shutout loss. But I'll call for a bounce back at the plate tonight as they face Michael Pineda, who was an ugly 4.78 career ERA here at Tropicana Field. I was surprised that Rays skipper Kevin Cash shuffled the lineup so much yday. Starting here for the home team will be Alex Cobb, who because of injury was limited to only five starts last year. But I've always liked him and he's typically had New York's number w/ a 2.91 ERA in 12 career starts. That number was significantly lower before a poor outing last year. Keep in mind that yday was only the Yanks 15th shutout win in the L3 years. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Houston (8:10 ET): I'll back the Astros for a second night in a row here. Last night brought a 3-0 win over Seattle as starter Dallas Keuchel dominated from the get-go. The Mariners finished w/ only three hits and tonight will go up against Lance McCullers, who despite injuries still managed to post a 3.22 ERA in 14 starts last year. He'll be opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a down year in 2016. In yday's analysis, I think I made it pretty clear that the Astros are poised to be one of the better teams in all of baseball. I'm sticking w/ that assertion here tonight and calling for them to make it two in a row over their AL West rival. 

Houston didn't even do much offensively yday, not they needed to. But expect this offense to be better this year w/ six new faces in the everyday lineup, most of which I consider to be positive additions. The key will be a projected increase in on base percentage thanks to Nori Aoki. Here, they should be in line for a big day at the plate if Iwakuma's Spring Training performance was any indication of things to come. He was just dreadful in Grapefruit League action, posting a 7.13 ERA in six starts and opponents hit . 311 against him. Those are very ugly numbers obviously and as is the case w/ Felix Hernandez (discussed in yday's analysis), Iwakuma is a pitcher I'd expect to see start to fall off.

McCullers hardly had a good Spring either, but that was attributable to him using a changeup more, a pitch he didn't go to often in 2016. Houston is now 12-8 since the start of last season and 24-15 against them the L3 seasons.They are being badly undervalued here at home. They are 98-67 here at Minute Maid Park the L3 seasons and that includes a 35-24 mark when priced in the -125 to -150 range.  8* Houston

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The Indians won on Opening Day, 8-5 here in Texas, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth. Overall, they scored five runs total across the final three frames. The defending AL Champs got a boost from their big offseason acquisition, Edwin Encarnacion, who homered in the eighth to tie things up. Starter Corey Kluber wasn't particularly impressive as he allowed three home runs, but the bullpen got the job done, particularly Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, who combined to strike out the final five Texas batters. Tonight, it's Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Tribe and I expect him to help make it two in a row over the Rangers.

Carrasco did not pitch at all last year in the postseason. Late in the reg season, he took a line drive and broke his right hand. While Carrasco doesn't have great career marks when facing Texas, this is a pitcher who has a very high strikeout rate and I expect him to pitch well tonight. The Indians' offense scoring eight times last night was certainly a good sign as was the performance by the bullpen. There is no denying that this is one of the top teams in the entire AL entering the year. On paper, this a better team than the one who took the Cubs to seven games in LY's World Series.

All things considered, it was a pretty brutal loss for the Rangers yday. They led 5-1, got a strong effort from starter Yu Darvish, had their two best relievers both work and Rougned Odor homered twice. Yet they still couldn't get the job done, which is a bad sign. Of course, this team was quite the overachiever last season. They pulled off the somewhat shocking feat of winning 95 games despite outscoring opponents by only eight runs. Thus, regression (in terms of wins and losses) is to be expected in 2017. Pitching for the home team today will be Martin Perez. He's off a career year and thus he should regress individually as well. Last year marked a career high in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts. His career ERA vs. Cleveland is a woeful 12.46. Indians make it two in a row here in Arlington to open the season. 8* Cleveland

8* Houston (8:10 ET): Look for the Astros to be strong team in 2017. Like most, I have them favored to win the AL West. Last year was a disappointment as the team finished third in the division at 84-78. The year previous saw them make the playoffs. Improvement for this year starts w/ ace Dallas Keuchel, who was -8.8 units last year. The year previous he took home the Cy Young and here at Minute Maid Park was downright unbeatable. Now most will look at this line and be enticed by the juicy price on Felix Hernandez, which is almost unheard of. But don't be shocked if this is the year King Felix falls off a bit.

There are now a ton of new faces in the Astros' everyday lineup, six to be exact. The majority of them will help aid the team's one true offensive deficiency, on base percentage. In particular, Nori Aoki (career .353 OBP) will be a boon. I don't think there will be a more improved offense in the big leagues. Keuchel was bothered by shoulder issues last year and missed the final month. Again, this was the Cy Young winner in 2015 which included a 16-0 record at home (1.45 ERA, 0.902 WHIP). He actually still fared well against Seattle though last season, holding them to just four runs across 13 IP. The Astros had a winning record overall vs. the M's in '16, going 11-8. Behind Keuchel will be one of the AL's better bullpen.

Quietly, Hernandez really fell off last year for Seattle. His 7.2 K's per nine innings rate was the lowest of his career and is a very troubling sign. Last year's 3.82 ERA was his highest in nine seasons. Here's something you probably did not know. The Mariners were the oldest team in baseball last year. This will eventually have an effect on the defense. Overall, I have Seattle regressing a bit this year. Perhaps they'll still be in Wild Card contention, but when all is said and done, they'll be looking up at Houston in the AL West standings. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves +1.5. Not much is being expected from Atlanta last year despite the fact they showed rather dramatic improvement in the second half last year. Once on a pace to lose 100 games, the Braves got their act together late by going 34-27 over the final 61 games, which was actually the third best record in the National League over that time! They closed the season on a 12-2 run. Now perhaps you might make the case that's a mirage, but cluster luck suggests this was an unlucky team in 2016. Better run sequencing and a better everyday lineup should lead to an increase in wins for 2017. 

I'm not sure if there was a pitcher in all of MLB last year to have more hard luck than Julio Teheran. Atlanta's de facto ace wound up w/ a 10-20 team start record despite a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. I expect major improvement for him this year in terms of the won-loss record. Teheran has actually always fared well against the Mets throughout his career, turning in a 7-3 record and 2.36 ERA. Here's something else that may surprise you: the Braves actually posted a winning head to head record vs. the Mets last season! 

Noah Syndergaard of the Mets is a pitcher that needs no introduction, but he got hammered in his final appearance vs. the Braves last year, giving up five runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Just like last year, it figures to be the Mets battling the Nationals for NL East supremacy, but don't be surprised to find Atlanta finishing a solid third. I see the road team doing no worse than a one run loss here. Predictably, the public is "all over" New York here and that's created a situation where there's now substantial value on the run line. The Braves were 6th in net units earned at the betting window last night, right behind the Cubs! That's largely owed to the +7.3 mark vs. these Mets.  8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)