10* San Diego (10:05 ET): The Padres came into the 2021 season with incredible expectations and I’m a little impressed that they haven’t collapsed under the weight of them. Remember that Fernando Tatis Jr missed about two weeks with an injury and hasn’t played particularly well when in the lineup. But the team is now 10-7 after salvaging a game with the Dodgers on Sunday. I think “brighter times” are ahead for a San Diego team that should be one of the National League’s best clubs. 

Not only is Milwaukee off an extra innings loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they head to the West Coast without Christian Yelich (2018 MVP), Kolten Wong and Lorenzo Cain. This team is not hitting well as four regulars are below .200 and the team has scored just 66 runs in 15 games. So look for the Brewers to REALLY struggle at the plate tonight as they must face Joe Musgrove, who has a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP through three starts, including a no-hitter. So far, Musgrove has allowed just ONE run in 19 IP and has a 24-2 KW ratio. 

The Brew Crew counter with Brandon Woodruff, who’s off to a fine start to the season himself. But it’s not as good as Musgrove’s and he’s facing a tougher lineup today. Given their lack of hitting, Milwaukee probably should have even fewer runs scored this year. The absences from the lineup are significant and I think too tough to overcome. It was almost two years ago, but the last time the Brewers came to Petco Park, they got swept. SD is 26-10 L36 as a home favorite and 18-8 L26 series openers. 10* San Diego

7* LA Angels (9:35 ET): The Angels are certainly well-rested as they head into tonight’s series opener with the division rival Rangers. They had two games with the Twins postponed over the weekend due to COVID-19 (issue was with Minnesota). While that had to be a bit disappointing considering the Halos took the series opener 10-3, they’ll gladly take the time off. Overall, it’s an 8-5 start to the season and they are among the league leaders in runs scored this season. I envision an easy win over the last place Rangers. 

Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, who were scheduled to pitch Saturday and Sunday, will be skipped in the rotation so that Dylan Bundy can make his regularly scheduled start tonight. Bundy has arguably been the Angels’ best pitcher in the early going, though he does not have a win. But he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.053 WHIP through three starts and has been successful in the past vs. Texas with a 5-1 record and 2.91 ERA in nine previous appearances (seven starts). Bundy has turned in three quality starts so far and has 22 strikeouts in 19 IP. 

This line has definitely been steamed up. But for the reasons listed above (Angels’ rest, Bundy), it’s easy to understand why that is. Plus, the Rangers are off a three-game series in Baltimore where they managed just four runs! They did win yesterday 1-0, but it’s difficult to win that way. Not only have they scored just 1 run each of the L2 days, the Rangers have already been shutout three times this season. Starter Kohei Arihara will try to keep them in this one, but the problem is he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been horrendous on the road (7.07 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). Texas is 4-9 off a shutout win the L2 seasons. 7* LA Angels

10* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): Each team has won a game handily in this series. Pittsburgh opened with a 6-1 win on Friday before Milwaukee fired back with a 7-1 win one Saturday. The Brew Crew are heavily favored to take Sunday’s rubber match and while I see a strong likelihood of that occurring, the Under offers more value here and is even more likely to cash. Each of the Brewers’ last four games have gone Under with none of them seeing more than eight total runs scored. 

Whether you like the Brewers or the Under, starter Freddy Peralta has got to be the key to victory. In three appearances this year (two starts), Peralta has dazzled by allowing just one run and five hits in 13 IP. He has 24 strikeouts, second most on the team, as well. The lone run surrendered was on a home run. His ERA is down to 0.69 and opponents are batting just .119 off him. While Peralta has 10 career appearances against the Pirates, his only start saw him toss six shutout innings. 

The Pirates, who are widely expected to be a bad team in 2021, had been hitting well going into yesterday. But they went 0 for 9 with RISP. It should be noted that five of Milwaukee’s seven runs yesterday came with two outs in the first inning. Bucs starter Chad Kuhl has been shaky so far with all three starts going Over. But he’s 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew winning here would be beneficial as they’d come up to bat eight times, rather than nine. 10* Under Pirates/Brewers

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians really let one get away yesterday. They led 2-1 going into the bottom of the ninth and could have been up by even more, were it not for Josh Naylor lining into a triple play (had runners at the corners) in the eighth inning. Naylor’s infamy would then continue when he let a routine grounder go through his legs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, leading to the tying run. The Reds went on to win 3-2 in 10 innings, their second straight victory over the Tribe as they also won 10-3 on Friday. Looking to avoid the sweep, Cleveland sends its ace to the mound Sunday (Shane Bieber). 

The Indians’ lack of offensive firepower is not promising when playing in a National League park. Of course, the pitcher has to come up to bat. But with Bieber also on the mound, they should be in good shape here. Bieber went the distance his last time out, allowing only three hits and turning in a 15th straight start with at least eight strikeouts. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner now has a 2.11 ERA and 0.891 WHIP through three starts and he’s 2-0 w/ a 3.15 ERA in three career starts vs. the Reds.

Wade Miley has never started a season with three consecutive wins in his big league career, but that’s what the Reds starter for Sunday is aiming for here. Miley has previously held the Giants & Pirates, two light-hitting NL teams, to just four total hits in 11 scoreless innings of work. But I’m skeptical of that continuing, even though the Indians are hardly the 1927 Yankees. The Reds are just 25-74 their L99 Interleague games as an underdog. It’s notable that they are underdogs here after winning as favorites each of the previous two days. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Giants/Marlins (6:10 ET): Miami kicked off this series with a 4-1 win Friday. That’s far fewer total runs than what we saw in their previous series (against Atlanta) where the four games averaged 13.5 rpg. The Marlins won three of them, including two in extra innings. The offense has been far less spectacular at home this season, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they begin to “break out.” Same for the Giants, who are now 10-1 Under their L11 games. Nine of those 11 games have seen five or fewer totals runs scored. Seems unsustainable? 

Starting today for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. The Under is 3-0 in his 2021 starts and 7-1 his last eight starts going back to the end of last season. So again, I’m really “bucking” the trends here. But let it be known that Alcantara has allowed three runs each of his last two starts and he had a season-high three walks his last time out. He’s also long overdue for some run support after the Marlins have scored just seven total runs in his three starts this year. 

The Giants’ offense is near the bottom of the league right now with just 3.4 runs per game. They had even less than that last night as there were only three hits outside of Mike Yastrzemski’sdouble and triple. But I think they’ll get going tonight. As for starter Aaron Sanchez, it’s been a long road back to relevancy. After missing all of 2020 and a 5.89 ERA in ‘19, I’m not sold on his start to this season, which has seen him give up just three runs in 10 IP. These teams are DUE for an Over. This is a low number. It’s that simple. 10* Over Giants/Marlins

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies got an unexpected off-day when yesterday’s game with the Mets was rained out. Just as well, the Phils had lost the first three games of that series to fall to 6-6 on the year. But the season began with a 5-1 homestand and their back at Citizens Bank Park tonight to host the Cardinals, who are also 6-6. The Cards, like the Phillies, have lost four of their last five games. They were shutout on Wednesday, 6-0 by Washington, in a game where they finished with only four hits.

Zach Eflin will start tonight’s game for Philadelphia. Both of his previous starts were against Atlanta. Mirroring his team’s performance, Eflin pitched much better when he started at home against the Braves than when he faced them on the road. In the home start, he allowed just one run on four hits in 7 IP. I think we’ll get something closer to that tonight as opposed to the four runs he allowed (in 6 IP) at Atlanta last weekend. The Cardinals have not faced Eflin in nearly three years. The Phillies are 35-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the L3 seasons, regardless of who the starter is.

St. Louis is 0-2 following an off-day this season and just 10-21 in that situation since 2019. They should feel a bit fortunate to be averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road so far as they are batting a collective .206 in those games. Carlos Martinez will make his third start of the season for the Redbirds today. He hasn’t pitched all that well so far with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in two starts. The Cards lost both, including 12-1 in the one that was on the road. 10* Philadelphia

8* Atlanta (2:20 ET): So this will be the second straight day I’m rolling with the Braves. Yesterday, they won in walk-off fashion, 7-6 over Miami. It was a much needed win as Atlanta had lost the first three games of that series, two of them in extra innings. They very nearly blew another one yesterday as a 5-4 lead turned into a 6-5 deficit in the top of the ninth. Thankfully, they were able to rally for two (runs) of their own in the bottom half of the inning with Dansby Swanson’s RBI single being the game-winner. 

Now the Braves move onto Chicago where they’ll face a Cubs team that is also below .500 after losing four of five. The Cubs just dropped two of three in Milwaukee before an off-day on Thursday. They actually own the worst run differential (-20) in the National League right now, which is never a good distinction. Also not good are the numbers thus far from Friday starter Zach Davies, who has an 11.04 ERA and 2.044 WHIP. He was really roughed up his last time out, giving up seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP and that was against the lowly Pirates. 

Atlanta will go with lefty Drew Smyly. Some would argue that ERA is an outdated, often misleading, way to measure a pitcher’s performance. Smyly’s two starts certainly make a case for that. While his ERA is 5.73, he has a 0.909 WHIP. In 11 IP, he’s allowed only nine hits, but he’s been charged with nine runs (two unearned). Three home runs haven’t helped, but Smyly has an 11-1 KW ratio. I think he’s pitched better than the ERA shows and he should do well against a Cubs lineup that is last in MLB with a 2.7 runs per game average. The Cubs are hitting a collective .163 and have eight games with five or less hits. They have the highest strikeout rate in the NL (29.4%) as well. 8* Atlanta

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox scored six runs in the first inning last night. After that, they sat back and watched starter Carlos Rodon toss a no-hitter. Rodon was actually two outs away from a perfect game when he plunked Indians catcher Roberto Perez. That HBP was the only runner Cleveland had the whole night in what ended up being an 8-0 game. I look for the home team to ride the momentum of that win and go on to take the series. They’ve held Cleveland to just five runs in three games so far. 

Rodon wasn’t the first White Sox starter to go the distance without allowing a run this season. Thursday starter Lance Lynn did it his last time out as well. While Lynn did allow five hits in his complete game effort, it still wound up being a 6-0 win with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Lynn has actually yet to be charged with an earned run this season as the two he allowed in his first start were both unearned. Lynn has very good career numbers against the Indians as he’s 3-1 with a 1.06 ERA in four starts. He has 31 strikeouts in 26 IP. So expect him to pitch well today. 

Cleveland doesn’t have a strong lineup. They are batting a collective .195 this season and have been held to four runs or less seven times in the last 10 games. So it will take a Herculean effort from starter Anthony Civale to get it done today. Civale does have two quality starts already, but both were against Detroit. Chicago is averaging 5.2 rpg and will welcome SS Tim Anderson back in the lineup. The White Sox are 22-10 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Yesterday’s doubleheader saw Boston win twice (3-2 and 7-1) and now they go for a four-game sweep at Target Field where the Twins are uncharacteristically struggling. Minnesota is 70-50 in all home games the L3 seasons (that includes the three losses in this series) and I just can’t see them dropping four in a row to the same team, even with the Red Sox being as hot as they are right now. You don’t see home teams get swept in four-game series all that often, at least not GOOD teams, and I’ll bet against it happening here. 

The Red Sox season seemingly got off to an ominous start as they were swept in three games by the lowly Orioles at Fenway Park. But since then, they’ve won nine straight! While the offense has been hot, they caught a bit of a break in the nightcap Wednesday when Twins starter Jose Berrios uncharacteristically had no control. Michael Pineda, who starts Thursday for the Twins, has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two starts so far and I like him to get the job done. 

Minnesota hitters are a horrible 1 for 24 with RISP in this series, which tells me that they SHOULD have scored a lot more runs. Today feels like a spot where they should breakthrough as they face Garrett Richards, who had an ugly first outing (allowed six runs in two innings), then gave up two home runs his second time out. Josh Donaldson is now back in the Twins lineup. Pineda has given up just three runs in 11 IP and I look for the Twins to avoid the sweep. 8* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves are hoping to avoid a most embarrassing fate, that being a four-game sweep at home. Two of the three games in this series with the Marlins have been decided in extra innings. The Braves really let one slip away Monday when they blew a late 3-1 lead and lost 5-3 in 10 innings. Last night was a different story as they fell behind early (5-0 going into the home half of the 3rd) and then their rally was “in vain.” It should be pointed out that the Braves were massive favorites (-256) on the money line yesterday. They also lost 14-8 on Tuesday. 

Now that I’ve told you how BAD things have gone for the home team in this series, I’m going to sell you on TAKING THEM today. Home teams don’t often get swept in four-game series and I don’t think it’ll happen here. Atlanta should have won Monday’s opener and the fact they’ve now lost twice in extras should tell you that this has been a competitive series despite one team winning all three games. The Braves are normally a good home team (74-48 L3 seasons) and they are still 24-11 vs. Miami since the start of 2019 as well. 

In fact, Miami has NEVER swept a four-game series against Atlanta in franchise history! Ronald Acuna is hitting the cover off the ball for the Braves and I expect that to continue today against southpaw Trevor Rogers, who is highly unlikely to replicate his last start where he shutout the Mets for six innings. Atlanta counters with Ian Anderson, who has a 1.04 ERA in two previous appearances vs. Miami. 8* Atlanta

10* Over Rockies/Dodgers (10:05 ET): Colorado, who has gone Under in each of its last six games, was shut out 7-0 last night by Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers. It was the Rockies’ second straight shutout loss as they were also blanked 4-0 by the Giants on Monday. They’ve now lost four in a row, all on the road, and scored a grand total of four runs in those games. While I can’t say “I like their chances” tonight in LA, I do think they’ll be able to put at least a few runs on the board and that should be enough to send this Over. 

The Dodgers have won four in a row and three of those have come via shutout! As anticipated, this is looking like a dominant ballclub as they’re now 9-2 on the season and one of those losses came Opening Day in Colorado. Last night matched their biggest margin of victory of the season as Bauer allowed only one hit over seven innings. The offense leads MLB in team batting average (.285) and is putting up nearly six runs per game. 

Dustin May will start tonight’s game for the Dodgers, who look to move to 5-0 at home. May threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his first start, which was at Oakland. Yet that game ended up being a 10-3 final (in the Dodgers’ favor). Jon Gray, who starts for the Rockies tonight, took a no-hitter into the 7th inning his last time out. But he has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers, especially here at Chavez Ravine where he’s 1-5 w/ a 6.84 ERA in six career starts. 10* Over Rockies/Dodgers

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros suffered a rather embarrassing setback last night. They fell 6-2 to the Tigers as starter Zack Greinke really struggled, giving up all six runs in just 4 ⅔ innings of work. The chances of losing to the lowly Tigers twice in a row, at home, seems small though. So we’re backing the hosts on Tuesday as they’d gotten off to a great start to the season before losing three in a row, all here at home. They still have a +19 run differential, which is second best in the entire American League. 

Detroit, now 4-6 on the young season, has the second WORST run differential among AL teams at -21. So as the odds indicate, this is a mismatch on paper. Last night was the Tigers’ first road win of 2021 as they’d been swept in Cleveland over the weekend. Over the last three seasons, they are 37-76 away from Comerica Park, including 17-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Last night was also just the second win by the Tigers in the L11 meetings w/ Houston. The Astros should be highly motivated to bounce back from such an embarrassing defeat. 

A couple of late solo homers allowed Houston to avoid being shutout last night, which would have been REALLY embarrassing. But it should be noted they were 0 for 11 with RISP. Look for more timely hitting tonight against Matthew Boyd, whose strikeout to walk ratio has steadily decreased over the past two seasons. The Astros counter with Jake Odorizzi, who will be making his 2021 debut. Odorizzi has not pitched much since a career-year in 2019 with Minnesota. Detroit has NOT hit well so far, so this is an ideal first trip to the mound. 8* Houston

10* Over Nationals/Cardinals (7:45 ET): Still reeling from a COVID-19 outbreak, the short-handed Nationals have dropped five in a row while being shutout in three of the last four losses. It should be mentioned that two of those shutouts were against the Dodgers, who have tremendous pitching staff. In the three games where they were NOT blanked this season, the Nats put up at least five runs. So there have been some games where the offense has done just fine, despite the missing players. 

St. Louis just gave up nine runs both Saturday and Sunday. That was after allowing just four runs total the previous four games. But the first series of the year saw them hit hard as they allowed 27 runs in three games to the Reds. So, outside of Miami, everyone is getting to the Cards’ pitching thus far. Through nine games, the bullpen has actually worked more innings than the starting rotation, which is not a good sign. 

Starting today for the Cards will be John Gant, who allowed only an unearned run when he faced the Marlins last Tuesday. That was his 1st start since 2018. While he allowed only the one run, he did walk three batters and needed 82 pitches to record 12 outs. My view is that the Washington hitters will break out of their slump today against Gant. But starting Erick Fedde is a problem for the Nationals as he allowed six runs in 1 ⅔ innings his first time out. 10* Over Nationals/Cardinals

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Phillies started the season by sweeping three games from the Braves (in Philadelphia). Now the Braves can return the favor here in Atlanta. The home team was an 8-1 winner on Friday, then 5-4 on Saturday. Atlanta has now won four straight since opening the year 0-4 and they’ve allowed four runs or fewer in six games this season. There wasn’t much scoring after the first inning yday, but Freddie Freeman was the difference with three RBIs including the game-winner in the 7th.

Drew Smyly will be making his first home start of the season for the Braves tonight. He went six innings and allowed just two runs on four hits his last time out. Unfortunately, the team lost that game 6-5 (to Washington) as the bullpen blew the lead. But Smyly had eight strikeouts and looked much better than Matt Moore did in his first start for the Phillies. Last Monday, Moore could make it only 3 ⅓ innings and had control issues (four walks). The Phils won that game 5-3, but they won’t win many Moore starts if he continues to pitch like that. 

The Atlanta bullpen has been outstanding so far, save for that game Smyly started. This is a battle of southpaw starters and that favors the Braves, who are 32-19 since the start of 2019 when facing a left-hander. Philadelphia is now 9-24 when priced between +125 and +175 on the road the L3 seasons. Atlanta is 43-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Look for the Braves to return the favor for the sweep earlier in the season. 10* Atlanta

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): In yesterday’s analysis (when I told you to take them), I talked about how the Giants’ pitching has been quite good so far this season. Sure enough, Friday starter Johnny Cueto stepped up and was one out shy of delivering a complete game. Cueto allowed just one run on four hits in his 8 ⅔ innings of work. While it took until the 7th inning for him to get any run support, San Fran did win the game 3-1. I expect them to win again Saturday, possibly by a much larger margin. 

It’s now six straight games where Giants’ pitching has allowed four runs or fewer. Trying to extend that streak to seven will be Saturday starter Logan Webb. While his first start of 2021 was hardly one of the best we’ve seen from the Giants’ rotation thus far, he did allow only three runs in 5 ⅓. The problem was that he got zero run support and thus it ended up being a 4-0 loss to Seattle. Something else I discussed in yday’s analysis was the Rockies’ perennial offensive decline away from home. Well, yesterday was their first road game and we all saw what happened. Webb should be fine here. 

It would be nice if the Giants could get their offense on track. Despite winning four of their last six games, they’ve topped three runs just one time in that stretch! On Saturday, they’ll be facing Chi Chi Gonzalez, who makes his first start of 2021 for the Rockies. His 2020 was not impressive. Over four outings, Gonzalez posted an 8.57 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. The two road starts were even worse (11.13 ERA, 2.297 WHIP). While Gonzalez didn’t factor into either decision, somehow the Rockies beat the Giants TWICE last year when he was on the mound. Don’t see it happening again. Colorado is only 42-70 L112 road games. Excluding ONE inning, Giants pitching has allowed all of 17 runs so far. 8* San Francisco

10* San Francisco (4:35 ET): This series opener sets up well for the Giants. It’s their home opener. They also had Thursday (yesterday) off while the Rockies were busy entertaining the D’backs. While Colorado won yday’s game rather easily (7-3), it’s still a disadvantage when the other team is coming off an off-day. This will mark the Rockies’ 1st game outside of Coors Field this season and it’s certainly reasonable to expect their offensive production to dip dramatically, as it typically does every other season on the road. 

The Giants have started 3-3. They just took two of three from the heavily hyped Padres in San Diego. They did so despite never scoring more than three runs in any of the three games. That speaks to the pitching. I had them in Monday’s series opener. Note that SF has not allowed more than four runs in a game since Opening Day, a game which they blew a 6-1 lead and lost in extra innings. Take away the one disastrous six-run inning they allowed in that game and the Giants have allowed just 16 runs the rest of the year.

Johnny Cueto will start Friday’s game. Cueto went 5 ⅔ innings his first time out and allowed only three runs in a 6-3 win. He is 9-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Rockies. As per usual, Colorado’s offensive production dropped by a full run per game when on the road last season. They are just 42-69 away from Coors Field the L2 seasons. I don’t like starter Gomber either; he had seven walks in his first outing and gave up three runs in three innings. 10* San Francisco

8* Under D’backs/Rockies (3:10 ET): I tried with the Under here on Tuesday and caught a terrible break as the Rockies tied the game in the bottom of the ninth and then eight total runs were scored in extra innings. Last night was all about the Rockies ending a four-game losing streak with an 8-0 shutout. I’ll go back to the Under today as the only Arizona game to go Over in the L5 was the aforementioned series opener here. Thursday starter Merrill Kelly is 6-0 Under his L6 starts. 

The D’backs had scored just five runs before Tuesday’s game went into extra innings. That’s their highest producing nine-inning effort since the season opener, which they lost 8-7 at San Diego. Since that time, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer four times and shut out twice. As a team, they are batting only .216. CF Ketel Marte left yday’s game with an injury, so that’s one less hitter Rockies starter Jon Gray has to worry about. In his first start of 2021, Gray looked sharp as he held the Dodgers to one run on four hits in 5 IP. 

Kelly did not have a particularly effective first outing as he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs. Still, that game - a 4-2 D’backs loss - stayed Under the total. While Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs per game so far, they’re hitting a collective .228. So in the absence of better hitting, I expect the run production to start to decrease. Rockies’ hitters have struck out 20 times in this series and 16 runs on 19 hits seems like a bit of good fortune to me. Arizona is 26-8 Under after scoring two runs or less. 8* Under D’backs/Rockies

8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Phillies suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday as they went down 8-4 at the hands of the Mets. They’d previously beaten NY 5-3 on Monday and swept the Braves to open 2021. Considering how tough the NL East is supposed to be, this is a pretty impressive start. The Phils can still notch a second series win if they come out ahead this afternoon and I think they will do just that behind starter Aaron Nola. 

The Mets won yday on the back of a pair of two-run homers as well as drawing eight walks. But don’t look for that to happen here against Nola, who has had their number in the past with an 8-2 record in 3.30 ERA in 16 career matchups. Nola also looked sharp on Opening Day when he tossed 6 ⅔ solid innings against the Braves. He allowed only two runs on six hits and finished with a 6-0 KW rate. Another encouraging sign for the Phillies so far in 2021 is that their bullpen appears to be much improved (save for yday). Last season, it was the worst in the league. But bullpen performance can fluctuate wildly from season-to-season, so the regression to the mean is not surprising.

Southpaw David Peterson makes his first start of the year for the Mets today. He had a pretty good rookie season in 2020, although not when he faced the Phillies as he gave up five runs in only two innings. He didn’t look very good in the Spring either. The fact that the Mets got eight runs yesterday despite only five hits was certainly unusual and owed to their patience at the plate (those eight walks). But I don’t see them having that kind of success vs. Nola. 8* Philadelphia

9* Under D’backs/Rockies (8:40 ET): This is the series opener. Betting the Under at Coors Field is typically not the “safest play,” but it’s early in the season and the respective hitters of both these teams are not exactly hitting the cover off the ball. Arizona’s first series of the year saw them go 1-3 vs. San Diego as they avoided a sweep with a 3-1 on Sunday. Colorado is also 1-3, but their win came on Opening Day. Even facing the Dodgers here at Coors, the last two games stayed Under the total. 

Arizona lost 8-7 on Opening Day and since then has done little scoring. They have just five runs the last three games, all of which stayed Under. The D’backs split 10 games with the Rockies last year, but did take three of the three here in Denver. They scored 32 runs in that series (Over was 3-0), but don’t look for anything of the sort here as Rockies starter German Marquez only gave up one run to the Dodgers in his first start (6 IP). There were control issues for Marquez, but that feels like an aberration. 

Luke Weaver will make his first 2021 start today for the Diamondbacks. He did not have a good 2020, so Coors Field may not seem like an ideal place for a turnaround. But the Rockies have managed only 11 hits their last two games combined. If four games vs. the Dodgers produced an average of “only” 11.7 rpg, then it stands to reason we should expect fewer here. The Under is 8-3-2 the L13 games played at Coors Field. 9* Under D’backs/Rockies

10* Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins dropped yday’s series opener to the Cardinals by a score of 4-1. Their offense has been scuffling to start the season, but should get back on track Tuesday as they are set to face John Gant, who has not started a game since 2018. Gant has made 81 appearances as a reliever the last two seasons and generally has been more effective in that role. As a starter, he’s just 6-10 w/ a 3.99 ERA. The Cardinals may have to rely more on their bullpen in this game and that group hasn’t been particularly effective (5.82 ERA) so far. 

Miami is 1-3, including a loss on Opening Day when they had tonight’s starter Sandy Alcantara on the mound. But don’t blame Alcantara for that one. He did his job, pitching six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ seven strikeouts. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. Alcantara’s Opening Day performance came on the heels of a 2020 season where he posted a 3.00 ERA in seven starts. I am anticipating he’ll pitch well this evening. 

In the Marlins’ one victory this season, they scored 12 runs. Look for the offense to get back on track today. They have too many veteran hitters in the lineup to continue struggling at the plate like they did yesterday and on Opening Day. Cardinals’ pitching allowed 27 runs in the first three games of the season while their offense scored just one run after the first inning yesterday. I think this is a big win for the home team, who is 21-10 L31 as a favorite. 10* Miami

8* Run Line San Francisco (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m backing the Giants +1.5. Despite losing two of three to open the 2021 season and being shut out in the last game, the Giants should probably be 2-1. Opening Day in Seattle saw them blow a huge lead and lose by one run in extra innings. That despite allowing just five hits for the entire game. I’ll take a one run loss here, but also give the visitors a good shot at winning “outright.” 

San Diego is a much hyped team coming into this season. In the first series, they took three of four from Arizona. But they did lose yday, 4-1, thus denying them a sweep. Because of the hype, the Padres are going to see high money lines “like never before” (at least for them) and there are going to be times when there’s some significant value in fading them. This is one of those times as they start the unproven Adrian Morejon, who is only in the starting rotation right now due to an injury to Dinelson Lamet. In nine appearances (four starts) last year, Morejon had a 4.66 ERA and 1.241 WHIP.

I can’t say that Giants’ starter Anthony DeSclafani is going to be in the NL Cy Young mix this season as he’s coming off a fairly wretched 2020 campaign. However, with an improved change-up, he did look good in the Spring where his ERA was a solid 2.79. A bit of an edge for SF here is that they had Sunday off. They went 2-8 against the Padres last season, but four of those games were decided by one run. I’ll take that either way here. 8* San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Over Royals/Indians (4:10 ET): This is the home opener for the team with the lowest payroll in MLB, Cleveland. The Indians began the 2021 season by losing the first two games at Detroit. They picked up their first win Sunday, 9-3. Kansas City’s first series was just the opposite. They took the first two games before losing yday. All three games with Texas went Over. The Royals scored 28 runs in three games, but also gave up 21. I see today’s game continuing the streak of Overs. 

The Indians are likely to struggle to score runs in 2021. But they busted loose for nine yday. Most of them (eight) came over the final four innings. Today they’ll face Danny Duffy, a southpaw that they’ve seen many times before. Duffy posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 11 starts last season. Only one of the 11 was a quality start as he rarely pitched a full six innings. Ironically, he pitched well against Cleveland twice. But the Over is 3-0-1 the last four times Duffy has started a series opener. The Over is also 5-0 L5 times he’s faced a team with a losing record. 

Starting here for Cleveland will be Logan Allen, who had an excellent Spring and is down 35 lbs. This is his first regular season start in over a year and half. It’s a tough matchup for him, facing a lineup that scored 25 runs in its first two games of the season. The Royals did strikeout 14 times Sunday and fell behind by 4+ for the third consecutive game. I think that will lead to them being MUCH more aggressive at the plate in this game, at least early on. 10* Over Royals/Indians

10* Over White Sox/Angels (8:37 ET): Twice the Angels have rallied to beat the White Sox. They got two runs in the bottom of the eighth in Thursday’s opener (won 4-3), then scored three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-3 last night. In between, they lost the middle game 12-8. While things may not get that high scoring tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, I am expecting the Over to cash. We’ve seen a total of 35 runs scored in the three games thus far with teams also combining for 51 hits. 

The “attraction” for this game is  that Angels’ starter Shohei Ohtani will also be coming up to bat. Not only that, he’ll be hitting second in the lineup. This is the first time Ohtani has ever started and hit in the same MLB game. He also played yesterday, going 1 for 4 at the plate. I’m curious as to how this will affect his pitching Sunday night. He was not particularly good (on the mound) in Spring Training as he posted a 12.19 ERA in 10 ⅓ IP. He’ll have to deal with the red hot Yermin Mercedes, who is 8 for 9 at the plate this season for Chicago. 

Having led going into the 8th inning in every game this season, the White Sox have to be “kicking themselves” for only being 1-2. The offense, averaging 6.0 rpg, has obviously been fine. But I’m not looking for much here from starter Dylan Cease, who had a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts last year. In two prior starts vs. the Angels, Cease’s ERA is 6.48. The Over is 7-4 in his L11 starts. The Over is also 7-2 in the White Sox last nine games here in Anaheim, so I look for this to sneak Over the key number of 9. 10* Over White Sox/Angels

8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox certainly did not expect to be swept in their first series of the season. But that’s on the verge of happening here. Considering how Baltimore was viewed coming into 2021, it would be quite embarrassing for the home team to drop three in a row at Fenway Park. Thursday’s opener was rained out and then Boston managed very little offense in the two games that were played. They’ve scored a grand total of two runs so far on only nine hits. 

It’s not as if the Red Sox didn’t have their chances yesterday. They were 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position though and that killed any hope of victory. Friday, they had no answers at the plate for Orioles’ starter John Means. Defensive issues have hurt the Red Sox in both games. But I believe they’ll bounce back and avoid the sweep Sunday. It boils down to having little to no confidence in a Baltimore team that is projected to finish with the fewest wins in the American League this season.

Boston will send Garrett Richards to the mound today. The veteran had an “up and down” 2020 for San Diego, but the Padres ended up winning his final three starts for them. It’s not as if the Orioles have produced much offense in the first two games, so this is somewhat of an “ideal” first start for Richards in a Red Sox uniform. Baltimore counters with Bruce Zimmerman, who has just two career big-league starts. One was a win against the Red Sox. However, I’m “hanging my hat” on the fact Boston is 37-14 after losing the first two games of a series. 8* Boston

10* Under Twins/Brewers (7:10 ET): These teams combined for 11 runs on Opening Day, but let’s not look past the fact that the game went to extra innings after Milwaukee scored three in the bottom half of the ninth. New Twins closer Alex Colome had an auspicious debut to say the least. After the teams had an off-day, I am looking for fewer runs to be scored here on Saturday night as we’ve got two solid starters on the mound and the bullpen issue probably won’t be repeated. 

Though they were well-positioned to win Thursday, the Twins did strike out 17 times. I expect them to struggle to make contact here against Corbin Burnes, who finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting last season for Milwaukee. Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 2020 and never allowed more than 3 ER in any of his nine starts. He allowed 1 ER in seven of the nine! There were three starts where he finished with at least 10 strikeouts, so Burnes has to like what he saw Thursday. The Under was 3-0 his L3 starts of 2020.

Starting opposite Burnes will be Jose Berrios, an All-Star in both 2018 and ‘19 for Minnesota. Though 2020 was perceived as a “step back” for the right-hander, his fastball was regularly hitting 97.5 MPH in Spring Training, so he seems poised to regain the form we saw the previous two seasons. Manager Rocco Baldelli said “Jose is in a fantastic spot physically.” The Under was 8-4-1 in all Berrios’ starts LY and he only gave up eight home runs. For Milwaukee, Burnes allowed only ONE HR in nine outings! 10* Under Twins/Brewers

9* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners stunned the Giants last night with a six-run rally in the eighth and then won the game 8-7, in 10 innings. It was a walk-off walk that got them the victory, perhaps an apropos way to win a game where they had only five hits (yet scored eight runs). As strange and as fortunate a win as that was, I’m on the M’s tonight as that was a very difficult Opening Day loss for a Giants team that I don’t think is going to be very good. 

As you likely know, a massive gap exists between the top two and bottom three in the NL West this season. The Giants find themselves on the WRONG side of that gap and the best they can hope for in 2021 is a distant third-place finish behind the Dodgers and Padres. They’ll turn to Johnny Cueto for the second game of the season. Cueto’s best days are clearly behind him. He enters his sixth season with the Giants having posted a 5.40 ERA in 2020 and he looked REAL shaky in Spring Training with a 9.82 ERA in three starts. 

Yusei Kikuchi gets the nod here for Seattle. Originally it was going to be James Paxton, but he’s been bumped back in the six-man rotation. The Giants have never faced Kikuchi, an advantage for the pitcher, and he’s off a fairly solid Spring where he allowed only three runs in 8 ⅓ innings of work. Obviously, last night’s effort by the Giants’ bullpen was not inspiring and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll hit 4 HR’s (all solo) again like they did yday. 9* Seattle

10* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The Angels stormed back to beat the White Sox yesterday by a score of 4-3. It was the team’s two key players - Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani - responsible for the two-run rally in the home half of the eighth inning. Trout tied the game with a single, then Ohtani later scored the go-ahead run on an Albert Pujols’ single. I look for there to be a bit of a “carryover” effect for the Halos going into tonight’s game when they send southpaw Andrew Heaney to the mound. 

Heaney is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five previous starts against the White Sox. These teams did not play in LY’s truncated season, so it’ll be Chicago’s first time seeing Heaney since September 2019. Each of the L3 times he’s started against the White Sox, LA came out ahead. Two of those were quality starts by the left-hander and I anticipate he’ll pitch well tonight. The White Sox managed only seven hits last night and struck out a total of 10 times. The Halos are now 6-2 their L8 vs. the White Sox. 

Dallas Keuchel will start opposite Heaney here. Keuchel has had plenty of past success vs. LA as his career record against them is 12-2 with a 3.36 ERA. Keuchel had a fairly solid 2020 season, but he went a full six innings only three times. I know a lot is expected from Chicago this year, but right now they seem a bit overvalued and it will be tough to shake last night’s defeat. They are just 6-23 their L29 games in Anaheim. 10* LA Angels

7* Boston (2:10 ET): So Mother Nature pushed Opening Day back for these teams as they were rained out yesterday. The Red Sox may not get back to the heights of their recent past, but they should definitely improve in 2021 under new skipper Alex Cora. Baltimore, on the other hand, appears to be headed for another dreadful season. They have a far lower projected win total than the Red Sox, who are expected to finish fourth in the AL East this season. In fact, the O’s season win total of 64.0 is the lowest in the entire AL. 

Nathan Eovaldi will get the starting nod for Boston today, in place of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is said to have a “dead arm.” Seeing as how health is a major concern in the Red Sox rotation right now, a lot will be expected of Eovaldi early on in the season. He was 4-2 w/ a 3.72 ERA in 2020 and finished strong by allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of his final four starts. Two of those were against the Orioles, one of them seeing him toss six shutout innings here at Fenway Park. 

There’s really no way to sugarcoat the Orioles’ chances here in 2021. Even a .500 finish seems highly unlikely despite them going 25-35 in the abbreviated 2020 season and finishing ahead of the Red Sox. Baltimore looks WORSE on paper this year and I don’t believe today’s starter (John Means) is going to be able to carry his club to victory in his 1st career Opening Day start. The O’s were 2-8 in Means’ starts last season including 0-6 the first six. He lasted only three innings the one time he faced Boston. 7* Boston

10* Kansas City (4:10 ET): Neither of these teams are expected to be very good this year. But Kansas City, even though their season win total dropped, is expected to be better and at least isn’t projected to finish last in their division (Detroit is). Texas has the lowest projected number of wins in the AL West as they went 22-38 in the truncated 2020 season and were outscored by a MLB-worst 88 runs. Starting on the road is not good for the Rangers as they are just 39-72 away from home since the start of the 2018 season, including a 14-36 record when priced between +125 and +175 as they are here. 

The Royals haven’t been viewed as “competitive” since 2017, but this could be the year they make a move back to .500. They have some talent in the everyday lineup, led by Jorge Soler, who led the American League in home runs back in 2019. The club will hand the ball to the underrated Brad Keller on Opening Day, hoping he can replicate LY’s form when made nine starts and didn’t give up a single run in five of them. The Rangers are not expected to hit well in 2021 and I look for Keller to induce a lot of ground ball outs here. 

Because of last season’s scheduling, these teams haven’t met in almost two years. KC is a lot better now than they were back in 2019 when they dropped five of seven to the Rangers. There are injury concerns in the Texas bullpen coming into the year and Opening Day starter Kyle Gibson had a fairly rough 2020, save for a couple starts late in the year against Houston. The Royals led the Cactus League (Spring Training) w/ a 16-8 record and ended last regular season on a 12-6 run. They are the call here. 10* Kansas City

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The Dodgers have brought the Rays to the brink of elimination. I’m going to say they end this on Tuesday and win the franchise’s 1st World Series trophy since 1988 (Orel Hershiser). My last WS play was of course on the Dodgers (in Game 3) and it was a *10* Game of the Year winner. Had they been able to hold on in Game 4 (lost in final at-bat), then this series would already be over. I think we all knew they were the superior team coming into the series. Nothing over the L5 games has changed my opinion. 

Game 5 saw LA jump on Rays’ starter Tyler Glasnow early. Clayton Kershaw & the Dodgers’ bullpen made it hold up as TB was held to four runs or less for the 11th time in 13 games. That’s just not enough offense to defeat what was the highest scoring ballclub in all of baseball during the regular season. Now the Rays have obviously won twice in this series and both times they did put up a good number of runs (6 and 8). But their offense remains entirely too dependent on the HR ball. Over 70% of the Rays’ total runs scored this postseason have come via the home run. 

The Game 6 pitching matchup is the same as it was for Game 2. Now Game 2 was a Tampa Bay victory and Tony Gonsolin, who Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts used more as an “opener” was only left in for 1 ⅓ innings. I expect him to go longer this time. Blake Snell had more control issues in Game 2 for the Rays, walking four batters for a second straight outing. The Dodgers certainly don’t want to “let” this series get to a Game 7. They had “only” six hits on Sunday. After a game w/ six (or fewer hits) this postseason, the Dodgers are 5-1 their next game. There have been only four times all season that LA has lost when having 6 or less the previous game. 10* LA Dodgers

10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The World Series is now tied at a game apiece after the Rays took Game 2 by a score of 6-4. The Dodgers remain heavily favored to win the series and off a loss, a role they are 16-5 in this season, I am going big on them. This was the best team in baseball during the regular season - both by record and run differential - and it wasn’t even close. After going with a bullpen game in Game 2, they now hand the baseball to Walker Buehler, who has a 10-2 TSR in 2020 and threw six shutout innings his last time out. Despite six runs in Game 2, I still have my doubts about the Rays’ ability to score on a consistent basis.

Tampa Bay will go with Charlie Morton. The team has won his L5 starts including Game 7 of the ALCS where Morton pitched 5 ⅔ scoreless frames. He didn’t allow a run in 10 ⅔ innings of work in the ALCS and he’s allowed 1 ER or less in his five postseason starts. That makes for a worthy adversary, but the bottom line is that the Dodgers are still the better team with the better offense. Before Game 2, the Rays had scored 4 runs or less in 9 of 10 games, the lone exception being when they scored 5. In other words, Morton will have to be near perfect for his team to have a chance here. I don’t see that happening.

Wednesday was basically a “must-win” for the Rays as the Dodgers made it a bullpen game. Sure enough, they got to “opener” Tony Gonsolin early with a Brandon Lowe home run. Quietly, one of the Rays’ best relievers - Nick Anderson - has not looked great this postseason. He’s been scored on in five straight appearances and six of eight playoff games. Buehler has the better numbers compared to Morton over the course of the season, including a 1.76 ERA his L7 starts, a stretch which has seen him give up no more than 2 ER in any one start. Tampa Bay’s offense remains far too reliant on the HR ball and Buehler has allowed only two of those in 19 postseason innings.  If Game 2 was a “must-win” for the Rays, this is a “must-win” for the Dodgers and I’ll back them to get the job done. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:08 ET): For the first 3 ½ innings of Game 1, our Under bet was looking pretty good. It was a scoreless tie entering the bottom of the 4th, but unfortunately the Dodgers would then “erupt” for eight runs over the next three innings, ensuring not only victory but an Over as well. Not that the Dodgers aren’t a capable team offensively (they led MLB in scoring during the regular season!), but that aforementioned “explosion” (of runs) we saw last night was largely tied to the curious decision by Rays manager Kevin Cash to let Tyler Glasnow throw 112 pitches, the most by any Rays starter all season.

Cash will certainly have a much shorter “leash” with Game 2 starter Blake Snell. I say this not just because Snell has yet to pitch a full six innings this year (5 IP or less in 10 of 15 starts), but also the Rays’ top three relievers - Anderson, Castillo, Fairbanks - were not used at all last night. With tomorrow being an off-day, you can expect to see that trio ASAP in tonight’s game. Snell was pulled early in his last start, despite four shutout innings (did allow a walk & single to start the 5th). He’d previously allowed just one run in 5 IP in his first of the two ALCS starts vs. Houston.

Tampa Bay hit just .201 collectively in the ALCS and that number drops to .183 when you factor out Randy Arozarena. Over the L10 games, they have scored more than four runs just one time and that was when they scored five in a Game 3 win over the Astros. They have not had more than eight hits in any of their L10 games. Over 70% of their runs scored this postseason have come via the home run, which is unsustainable. Unless they can get to Tony Gonsolin early tonight, it should be more struggles at the plate. Gonsolin is likely to be on an even shorter leash than Snell here as Dave Roberts will probably treat this as a “bullpen game.” 10* Under Rays/Dodgers

10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:09 ET): The Under hit in all but one of the seven games in the ALCS (Game 6 when I had the Over!). The Rays only hit .201 for the series against the Astros, averaging 3.6 runs per game. But an exemplary pitching staff combined to allow just 3.1 rpg. One key thing that I noticed over the course of the ALCS (and many others have certainly noticed!) is that TB doesn’t score much when they’re not hitting home runs. Other than Randy Arozarena, the Rays hit a collective .183 in the ALCS. 

The Dodgers scored the most runs in baseball during the regular season. Over the course of the NLCS they scored 39 runs, but that number is very misleading as they had one game w/ 15, 11 of those coming in one inning. The Rays’ pitching staff, with a very solid bullpen, is very comparable to Atlanta. Starters aren’t asked to go very long. Game 1 starter Tyler Glasnow has gone six innings twice, the longest outings by any Rays starter this postseason. Glasnow’s ERA is up over his L3 starts, but he generally doesn’t put many runners on base. He also had a 12-0 TSR in 12 starts before losing his lone LCS start. 

The Dodgers were held to 4 runs or fewer in 4 of the 7 NLCS games. The Rays scored more than 4 in only one ALCS game. Clayton Kershaw, who was chased in his only NLCS start, is getting the Game 1 nod and we all know his career postseason numbers aren’t great. But despite the Dodgers hitting lots of homers in the NLCS, Globe Life Field has been pretty “pitcher friendly” all season. The Rays didn’t play here during the regular season. Kershaw has a 2.44 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 13 starts. He should be fine. Don’t see many runs being scored in Game 1. 10* Under Rays/Dodgers

10* Houston (8:37 ET): Though I’m personally not a big believer in the concept of “momentum,” there is no denying that this ALCS has taken a dramatic swing with the Astros winning three straight to force a Game 7. This is only the 2nd time in MLB playoff history that a team that this has happened. The other occasion was the ‘04 Red Sox, who of course made history by winning Game 7 (against the Yankees) and then went on to win the World Series. My feeling is that the Astros have outplayed the Rays in this series and they will make history again.

Even when they lost the first three games, Houston was hitting the ball better than Tampa Bay. They now have 52 hits in the series, compared to only 38 for the Rays. We finally got an Over last night (that was my play!) and it’s become patently obvious that TB struggles to score when they’re not hitting home runs. Keep in mind that the Rays only managed three hits in each of their L2 games of the Yankees series. Collectively, they are hitting below .200 the L8 games. 

The same starters that were on the mound in Game 2 will be called up on here in Game 7. While Charlie Morton and the Rays emerged victorious in that game, 4-2, let’s not understate how well Lance McCullers pitched for Houston. He had 11 strikeouts in 7 IP, only to be foiled by giving up 2 HR’s. McCullers will heavily be leaned on here by manager Dusty Baker while Morton likely won’t go more than five innings for the Rays. It comes down to McCullers and the Astros’ offense against the Rays bullpen and I choose the former as this time I think Houston can get to Morton. They’ve been the better team in the series and deserve to win no matter what you think of them (because of the cheating scandal). 10* Houston

10* Over Astros/Rays (6:07 ET): None of the ALCS games so far have gone Over. We’re looking at a 5-0 Under mark and going back to the LDS, the Rays are 7-0 Under their L7. During that time, Tampa Bay is hitting just .174 as a team (yet has managed to go 5-2!). But the lack of hitting seems to be catching up on them as the L2 days have seen them fail to eliminate the Astros, losing 4-3 in both games. I feel we’re going to get that “elusive” Over tonight as this series has certainly seen plenty of home runs. 

Five of the seven runs scored in last night’s game came via the home run. The Rays hit three, but all were solo shots! Of course, a home run is what decided the game as Houston’s Carlos Correa “called his shot” and walked off in the bottom of the ninth. The Astros now have six home runs in the L3 games of the series. They’ve homered in every game this postseason besides the first one. They’ve got 21 HR’s in 11 games, hitting multiple in seven of the last nine. The one run they scored off Blake Snell in Game came via the long ball. Remember that Snell had allowed three HR’s in his lone LDS start against the Yankees. 

Tampa Bay has homered in all but two postseason games and six multi-HR games. They homered against Framber Valdez in Game 1. If only we could have some runners on base when these homers are being hit, we would have seen multiple Overs in this series! I know Game 1, which had the same exact starting pitching matchup as tonight (Valdez vs. Snell), was a 2-1 final. But we’ve seen six or seven total runs scored in each of the L4 games. Finally, the Astros and Rays get over the “scoring hump” tonight as both bullpens have seen heavy usage and may be running out of gas. 10* Over Astros/Rays

10* LA Dodgers Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5.  Coming into the playoffs, we all knew that the Braves’ main weakness was their (lack of) starting pitching depth. For the first seven games, it hadn’t been an issue as the team was able to use Max Fried and Ian Anderson (their two “good” starters) a total of six times and Kyle Wright stepped up the one time he’d been called upon. But Wright was an unmitigated disaster last night, giving up seven runs in ⅔ of an inning. By the time the first inning was complete, the Dodgers led 11-0. It was the most runs scored in an inning in MLB postseason history. Game 3 ended as a 15-3 win for the Dodgers. All of a sudden, this is a series again. 

Now Atlanta must turn to Bryse Wilson, who started all of two games in the regular season. He allowed just one run in eight innings, but that’s a really limited sample size and he never had to face a Dodgers lineup that scored the most runs in all of MLB this season. After scoring just one run in the first 15 innings of this series, LA has exploded for 22 runs across the L12 innings. The 15 runs they scored yesterday tripled what the Braves had allowed in the first 60 innings of this postseason. 

The other big story for Game 4 is the return of Clayton Kershaw. He was supposed to start in Game 2, but was scratched due to back spasms. Kershaw’s replacement (Tony Gonsolin) failed to get the job done, but look for Kershaw to step up as he’s allowed just 3 ER across 14 IP this postseason w/ 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers are 10-2 when Kershaw starts this season and he has a 2.12 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. This may not get as “ugly” as yday’s game, but the Dodgers will again win by multiple runs. 10* LA Dodgers RUN LINE (-1.5)

10* Houston Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. Tampa Bay has gone an incredible 16-5 in one-run games this season, including postseason. That .762 win percentage would be the best EVER for a team in any season in baseball history. The Rays took Game 1 by a score of 2-1 and have since taken advantage of some sloppy Astros’ defense to win 4-2 and 5-2. This is obviously a “must-win” for the Astros and I don’t think they’re ready to go home yet. 

The Astros have to be kicking themselves that they’re down 0-3 in this series. They have more hits than the Rays (26-18) and that edge should probably be even larger based on how much they’re making contact. But Tampa Bay’s superior fielding has been the difference so far in the ALCS as the L2 days have seen Jose Altuve make costly errors, giving the Rays the one big inning that they needed. TB has scored all but one of its runs the L2 days in just two innings. 

Getting Zack Greinke +1.5 runs is a luxury you rarely see. Greinke has been a ML dog only three times this season, not counting tonight. The last time was Game 1 of the 1st round series with Minnesota, which Houston won. One of the other two times resulted in a one-run loss. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow in Game 4. He has a 12-2 TSR this season including 11-0 the L11! But, despite the shiny team start record, Glasnow’s numbers are very similar to Greinke. The 3-0 lead the Rays currently enjoy is not really indicative of how this series has gone. 10* Houston Run Line (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (6:05 ET): At no point during this season have the Dodgers dropped three in a row. It would be very untimely for it to happen now. Down 0-2 to the Braves in the NLCS, tonight is basically a “must-win” for Dodger Blue or their season will be on the brink. This is only the fifth time all season that they’ve lost B2B games and just the third since August 13th! They were MLB’s best team in the regular season - both by record & run differential. Game 1 was a 1-1 game entering the ninth and then last night saw their bats FINALLY wake up (too little, too late) as they scored seven runs off the Braves’ bullpen. LA wins Game 3. 

If Atlanta has a weakness, it’s their starting pitching depth. Only one time in this 7-0 playoff run have they had to go to someone else besides Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That was Game 3 of the Miami series when they used Kyle Wright. Wright will again get the Game 3 nod for this series. While Wright was “lights out” vs. the Marlins, he still has a 4.50 ERA and 1.455 WHIP on the year. In each of the first two games of this series, the Dodgers have had the Braves’ starter in trouble early, but have failed to capitalize. That changes here. 

The Dodgers had won 9 in a row coming into this series. If they can win here, the Braves rotation will be put in “uncharted territory,” at least for the postseason. Clayton Kershaw was scratched yesterday in an unfortunate circumstance, so today they need a huge outing from Julio Urias, who last started a game on September 17th. Out of 10 starts this season, Urias allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. He only gave up 5 HR’s. I just can’t see LA losing three in a row as that’s a scenario that would have been deemed unfathomable at the start of the series. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros have to be wondering “how are we down 0-2 in this series?” They have outhit Tampa Bay 19-10 in the two games, including 10-4 yesterday. In fact, going back to the final two games of the Yankees series, the Rays have collected all of 16 hits in their L4 games! But most of them have been timely and/or home runs. Two costly Jose Altuve errors really burned Houston in Game 2, the first especially as it opened the door for a 3-run TB first inning. Obviously, the Astros need this game badly. Considering how they’ve outhit the Rays so far, I’ll take them. 

As someone who had the Rays in Game 2, I can safely say Lance McCullers outpitched Charlie Morton. Astros pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and no walks yesterday while Rays counterparts had a ratio of 8-3. Had Altuve not made that costly error in the first inning, Manuel Margot doesn’t come up to the plate with two runners on and hit a 3-run HR. Take that one pitch away and Houston would have won Game 2, 2-1.  I thought the Astros’ hitters made great contact yday and could have had even more hits/scoring opportunities. Alex Bregman was a very misleading 0 for 5 at the plate as he put all five balls in play at 98 MPH or faster. 

After totaling just three runs in the first two games, look for the Astros to come alive tonight in Game 3. Ryan Yarbrough will start (no opener like the ALDS) and keep in mind he has not won a decision all year. Four of his last seven outings, Yarbrough has allowed 4+ runs. But the heavy burden falls on Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy, who comes in with a 3.29 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. His ALDS start wasn’t great (allowed 4 solo HR’s!), but that was also his worst outing of the year. Considering that they have hit the ball better than TB in both of the first two games, the Astros are due for a win here. 10* Houston

8* Over Braves/Dodgers (8:05 ET): If you don’t give up any runs, you can’t lose. The Braves have taken this old adage to heart with FOUR shutouts in their five postseason wins. Impressive as that achievement may be, some context must be provided. They faced the worst offensive team in the playoffs (Reds) and then the lineup that had been shut out more times (Miami) than any other this season. Now, in the NLCS, they’ll be matched up with the only team that has scored more runs than they have, that being the Dodgers. 

Los Angeles, like Atlanta, is also an unbeaten 5-0 this postseason. They’ve rolled through the Brewers and Padres, scoring 30 runs in the process. As alluded to above, these were the two highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. The Dodgers average 5.8 runs per game while the Braves aren’t far behind at 5.7. Interestingly, both clubs have exceeded their YTD runs per game average only twice each in the playoffs. While I don’t expect both teams to score 5+ runs in Game 1, I do think one will.

Game 1’s two starting pitchers (Max Fried and Walker Buehler) have combined for a 21-2 team start record this season and neither has dropped a decision. So something will have to give in that department. Expect one (or both) to have a bit of “shaky” outing tonight. Fried allowed 4 runs vs. Miami his last time out, which was the only Braves’ game to go Over this postseason. Buehler also lasted just 4 innings in his last start and had 4 walks. The Dodgers’ closer situation remains unsettled going into this series. 8* Over Braves/Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (4:07 ET): The Rays are now 11-1 following an off-day this season after their 2-1 victory in Game 1. There won’t be many more of those this year (off days, that is) but TB has to like the position that they are in right now. Unless Houston has a decided edge in starting pitching, which they don’t here for Game 2, it’s going to be tough for me to like their chances in this LCS. The Rays’ bullpen prowess is simply too difficult to ignore. After the second batter of the game (Jose Altuve) homered last night, the Astros didn’t score again.

We have an all-righty starting pitching matchup for Game 2 with Lance McCullers (Houston) opposing Charlie Morton (TB). McCullers has not pitched well away from home this season. In seven starts away from home, he has a 7.57 ERA and 1.792 WHIP. The Astros are just 2-5 in those games. They did win McCullers’ lone LDS start, but note he allowed three home runs and five runs total in just four innings. Prior to that, the team had lost four straight McCullers’ starts.

8* Tampa Bay (7:37 ET): This series is all about revenge for the Rays. Whether they get it remains up for debate, but they surely remember losing to the Astros in five games in LY’s LDS. Houston entered 2020 with a HUGE “bullseye” on its back due to the cheating scandal, yet so far no one has been able to knock them off this postseason.  Well, they did drop a game to Oakland, but they’re 5-1 overall in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 5-2 as it needed five games to outlast the Yankees in the Division Round.

I was a tad bit surprised we didn’t see Blake Snell in Game 5 Friday night for the Rays. But that works out as he can now start Game 1 of the LCS. Snell, a former Cy Young winner, has an 8-5 TSR this season w/ a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His lone start vs. the Yankees wasn’t that great. In fact, it was perhaps his worst of the year as he allowed 3 HR in a loss. But that was also just the second time all year he gave up more than three runs. Pitching on five days rest, I expect this southpaw to get the job done here before handing things over to the Rays’ tremendous bullen. 

It took Houston awhile, but they decided on Framber Valdez as the Game 1 starter. He’s looked great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.787 WHIP his L3 starts. But that’s also a relatively small “sample size” and he’d given up a total of 13 runs in the two starts before that stretch. He also allowed 2 HR’s his last time out. Even though TB had just one day off between series, they are 10-1 this season following an off-day. As long as Snell does his job (I think he will!), the Rays will win Game 1. 8* Tampa Bay

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Of the four division series, this is the only one to go the distance as the Yankees fought off elimination yday by beating the Rays 5-1 in Game 4. There was no debate over who would start Game 5 for NY as Gerrit Cole has been on a sensational run, including a win in Game 1 of this series. Tampa Bay looks to be going with Tyler Glasnow, who will be pitching on even less rest than Cole as he started Game 2. I took the Cole and the Yankees in Game 1 and will do the same here in Game 5. 

Over his L5 starts, Cole is a perfect 5-0 and has allowed just seven runs in 34 IP. He also has a 45-5 KW ratio. In those five games, the Yankees have outscored their opponents by a stunning 52-9 margin. Considering they’ve scored 9+ runs each of the L4 Cole starts and 23 runs total against the Rays the L4 games, Cole is likely to get more than an adequate amount of run support tonight. Not that he needs it given how well he’s pitched lately, but we’ll certainly take it. The Yankees have outscored the Rays 23-19 in the series.

Glasnow, who had 10 strikeouts in 5 innings, did lead TB to victory in Game 2. But that wasn’t against Cole. He still gave up four runs and two homers. There will be no benefit here of being handed an early 5-1 lead (as he was in Game 2). While Glasnow is likely to serve as an “opener,” eventually making way for Blake Snell, I’ll still “hitch my wagon” to Cole over whatever the Rays plan is on the mound. Note Glasnow couldn’t get it done opposite Cole LY in Game 5 of the ALDS (when Cole was w/ the Astros). The Yankees and Cole are simply the more proven commodity. 10* NY Yankees

10* Atlanta (2:08 ET): You can’t lose if you don’t give up any runs. That adage is simple enough, but it’s also easier said than done. However, the Braves are really taking it to heart. Now 4-0 in the postseason, three of Atlanta’s wins have come in shutout fashion. The latest was yesterday’s 2-0 triumph that puts them one win away from advancing to their first NLCS since 2001 and the days of Bobby Cox! I think it’s fair to say at this point that the Marlins just aren’t on the Braves level. Look for Atlanta to finish the sweep today. 

I went over Atlanta’s substantial edges on offense and in the bullpen in yday’s analysis. They obviously still ring true today. The Braves’ bullpen has allowed just ONE run in four playoff games and it was a rather meaningless one in the 8th inning of Game 1 of this series (when they were up 9-4). An offense that scored the second most runs in all of baseball during the regular season hardly even needed to show up yday, though it did slug two more HRs and now has five of those in the series. 

If there is one weakness with this Braves team, it is their starting pitching depth. In Game 3, for the first time this postseason, they’ll have to start someone that isn’t Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That “someone” is Kyle Wright, who had an inconsistent regular season and struggled twice vs. the Marlins. But Wright did close strong w/ B2B quality starts where he allowed just two runs and three hits in 13 IP. Miami’s Sixto Sanchez has better numbers than Wright, but he had a rough start vs. Atlanta late in the year (allowed 4 runs in 3 IP) and honestly Miami faces enough disadvantages here that Sanchez can’t overcome them alone. 10* Atlanta

9* Atlanta (2:08 ET): The Braves ran their postseason record to a perfect 3-0 yesterday w/ a 9-5 win over the Marlins in Game 1 of this best of five LDS. The win very much accentuated the strengths of this Atlanta ballclub and their advantages in this series. Trailing most of the game, their excellent bullpen kept them in it and then MLB’s 2nd highest scoring offense from the regular season with a 6-run 7th inning. Miami’s bullpen, which came in with a 5.35 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the year, couldn’t get the job done. 

It feels like Game 1 was the Marlins’ “chance” to steal one here and they failed to do so, thanks to the aforementioned bullpen. You’ve got to remember that Miami’s regular season run differential (-41) was bottom-third in the league and easily the worst of any team in the playoffs. They also were shutout more times than any other team in baseball, which isn’t good when facing an offense of this caliber. Though they’ve been slightly more competitive this season (4-7), Miami’s head to head record vs. the Braves is just 8-22 L2 seasons and 13-36 L3 seasons. 

The starting pitching matchup for Game 2 will feature Ian Anderson for the Braves and Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. Both have struggled a bit this season facing the lineups they’ll see today. Lopez, who had a 6.39 ERA in three starts vs. Atlanta during the regular season, has never appeared in the postseason before. Anderson, who has allowed 5 runs in 8 ⅔ IP vs. Miami, looked great in his Rd 1 start vs. Cincinnati. He tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. the Reds to improve to a 4-1 w/ a 1.82 ERA in all non-Miami starts this year. He’s allowed just six runs and 14 hits in those five starts. Even if you consider Lopez vs. Anderson to be a “wash,” Atlanta’s superiority at the plate and in the bullpen is too much for Miami to overcome. 9* Atlanta

10* Over Astros/A’s (4:37 ET): It’s starting to look as if the Astros team we’re getting here in the playoffs is more along the lines of what we’ve seen from them in years’ past, as opposed to the middling club we saw in the regular season. Some of that can be attributed to the regular season being a relatively “small” sample size where most of their top hitters slumped. But having gone 3-0 against a pair of division winners so far in the playoffs, including a 10-5 come from behind win yday, indicates to me that Houston’s regular season numbers may not be all that relevant moving forward.

Things were looking good early for Oakland in Game 1 as they jumped out to a 3-0 lead. But the bullpen, which has been so good this season, couldn’t hold on. The A’s burned through eight pitchers Monday and allowed 10 runs on 16 hits. On the bright side, the offense did make it three consecutive games w/ at least five runs. I do like the A’s chances today against Houston starter Framber Valdez, who gave up five runs in five innings when he pitched in this ballpark (Dodger Stadium) during the regular season. 

We probably need to talk more about the “neutral site” effect here in the LDS. This series is taking place in Dodger Stadium and as we saw yesterday - on a dry LA afternoon - the teams combined for six homers. Keep in mind the Dodgers hit the most HR’s in the league - by far - during the regular season. Weather conditions are expected to be similar today. Valdez, who struggled here on September 12th, allowed 2 HR in that aforementioned start. Oakland’s Game 2 starter Sean Manaea hasn’t started a game since 9/23 when he also allowed 2 HR’s Dodgers here in this park. Expect plenty more HR’s today and this one to go Over.  10* Over Astros/A’s

8* Over Marlins/Braves (2:08 ET): Given how few runs these NL East rivals allowed in the first round of the playoffs, you might think that an Over play for Game 1 of the LDS may seem a bit “crazy.” But keep in mind I won with the Under in last night’s Falcons-Packers game despite all the “evidence” pointing in the other direction. What MIami is likely to find out here is that not all lineups are as weak as the Cubs. The same holds true for Atlanta after they faced a historically bad Reds offense. Take the Over. 

Only the Dodgers scored more runs than the Braves in the regular season. Now Atlanta didn’t need many runs to oust Cincinnati in two games. That’s because they didn’t allow a single run! Game 1, a 13-inning affair, ended 1-0. Game 2 was a 5-0 shutout. That Game 2 output is more along the lines of what I am expecting today as the Braves come in averaging a solid 5.7 runs per game for the year. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, who had little difficulty beating the Cubs, is going to be challenged more here by a lineup he somehow avoided the entire regular season. The Over is 16-6-5 for Atlanta after scoring 5+ runs their previous game.

The Reds lineup that the Braves saw in Round 1 was even more putrid than what the Marlins saw in Chicago. Cincinnati had a historically low batting average (for a playoff team) and scored the fewest runs by non-HR means in the reg season. Yet they still had their chances against Atlanta, especially in Game 1 when Max Fried (who starts again today for the Braves) was on the mound. The Reds were 1 for 12 w/ RISP in that game and left 13 men on base. Fried allowed six hits and has struggled in the past vs. Miami w/ a 5.13 ERA in six career outings. Neither of today’s starters will find things to be as easy as it was in the previous round. 8* Over Marlins/Braves

9* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): An outstanding starting pitching matchup between two hurlers that looked great in the last round, not to mention their L4 starts respectively, headlines Game 1 of this ALDS matchup between the Yankees (who go w/ Gerrit Cole) and the Rays (who go w/ Blake Snell). Tampa Bay had the head to head edge in the regular season, winning 8 of 10 against New York, but it’s the team wearing pinstripes that’s favored to open this series and we agree with that. It’s difficult to imagine the Rays continuing to be that successful against a team like the Yankees. 

Injuries were a big reason why the Yankees were only 2-8 against Tampa Bay in the regular season. Aaron Judge missed six of the games, Giancarlo Stanton missed seven and DJ LeMahieu missed three. But they’re all back now and we saw what the Yankees just did to Cleveland, putting up 22 runs in two games against what was - statistically - the best rotation in all of baseball. While I don’t see NY being as successful tonight against Snell, I do think they’ll score enough to win here. 

Cole has allowed just four runs in his last four starts. The same is true for Snell, but Cole has won all four of his (3-1 TSR for Snell) and thrown six more innings. Incredibly, Cole’s last four starts have seen the Yankees outscore the opposition by a combined score of 43-6! Cole has a lower ERA and WHIP than Snell over the course of the season. Now fully healthy, I expect the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge for that poor regular season mark against the Rays tonight in Game 1. 9* NY Yankees

10* Under Yankees/Rays (8:05 ET): Runs were pretty scarce throughout the 1st round of the MLB playoffs, but not for the Yankees, who put up 22 in two games at Cleveland. That was pretty shocking. Not only because the Indians had (statistically) the best starting rotation in MLB during the regular season, but also because of the fact the Yankees had the largest home vs. road split (when it comes to scoring runs) of any non-Rockies team in MLB history! There won’t be any “true” road games for the Yankees any more (this series is being played in San Diego), but it’s still not Yankee Stadium. Therefore, I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

We’ve got an outstanding pitching matchup tonight with Gerrit Cole going against Blake Snell. Cole was 7-3 in the regular season for NY (w/ a 2.84 ERA), then gave up only two runs to Cleveland in seven innings. He’s 4-0 his L4 starts having allowed only four runs in 28 IP! He’s allowed three runs or less in all but two starts in 2020 and 2 ER or fewer in all but four starts. I expect him to pitch very well again tonight. 

Blake Snell has also been on fire for the Rays. He too is off an outstanding four start stretch while looking dominant in the first round. His start vs. Toronto saw him go 5 ⅔ and allow just one hit (zero runs). Over his L4 starts, the last three of which have all stayed Under, Snell has allowed just four runs in 22 IP and three of those came in one start. Unlike Cleveland’s pitching, look for Snell to take advantage of the Yankees dramatic home vs. road scoring split. For the record, NY averages 4.6 runs per game on the road vs. 6.3 at home. It may not be Tropicana Field, but this is a road game. 10* Under Yankees/Rays

***This play was originally for Thursday. With the rain out, I've simply reposted for Friday. The pitching matchup remains the same and I still like the Cubs!

7* Chi Cubs (2:05 ET): The Miami Marlins have NEVER lost a postseason series, which has to be a very frustrating fact to all the long-suffering franchises in the sport. Keep in mind the Cubs have won just ONE World Series (2016) in the past 112 years! Prior to this season, Miami had made the playoffs just two times in its entire existence (1997, 2003) and both times it won the World Series! The Marlins picked up a surprise win here at Wrigley yday, 5-1, scoring all five runs in one inning. I look for the Cubs to draw even Thursday. 

What you have to keep in mind about this Marlins team is that it was outscored by 41 runs during the regular season. That’s an atrocious run differential for a playoff team and was easily the worst of the 16 teams that made it. Also, no team was shut out more times this season than were the Marlins. A rather undisciplined team at the plate, Miami appeared on its way to getting blanked again yesterday. But they “broke loose” for the one big inning and that’s all they needed. Not all the news from yday was good, however, as Starling Marte left with an apparent broken hand in the 9th inning (HBP). 

Kyle Hendricks pitched well for the Cubs in Game 1, but was left in the game too long. I like Game 2 starter Yu Darvish to carry the team as he had an exceptional regular season, turning in a 2.13 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Darvish allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and was very sharp his last time out, blanking the White Sox for seven innings. Provided the Cubs scored at least one run, Darvish had a 9-1 TSR this year (two losses were when team was shutout). Miami’s Sixto Sanchez faltered a bit down the stretch, giving up a combined nine runs in his L2 starts while lasting only seven innings. The Cubs are 6-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 or higher and 38-13 in that range the L3 seasons. 7* Chi Cubs

6* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): As we saw in Game 1, if Milwaukee falls behind the Dodgers, they have almost no chance of catching up. The only shot the Brew Crew has to pull an improbable upset in this series is to get the lead early and turn it over to the bullpen. Problem is, they are at a severe disadvantage in the starting pitching department and the Dodgers are just too talented. After LA took Game 1 by a score of 4-2, there’s no need to overthink this one. I look for the Dodgers to sweep and move on to the next round. 

The big story for Game 2 will be Clayton Kershaw’s lack of postseason success. His career numbers in the playoffs aren’t good (at least by his standard), but I think too much is being made of that right now. In the regular season, Kershaw had an 8-2 team start record to go along with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Not that this hasn’t been the case before, but Kershaw is being backed by the vastly superior ballclub here. The Dodgers are 44-17 this year with a run differential of +138. They are easily MLB’s best team.

I’m looking past Kershaw’s postseason past simply because the Dodgers are the vastly superior ballclub. Last night, they knocked out Brent Suter by drawing five walks and scoring three runs in an inning and two-thirds. Suter had walked only five batters all year. So I don’t think Game 2 starter Brandon Woodruff’s numbers are of much use here either. Milwaukee entered this series without the services of its best starter and best reliever, really putting them behind the 8-ball from the start. This is a team that had a negative run differential in the regular season. 6* LA Dodgers

10* Over Cardinals/Padres (5:05 ET): Despite some of their top hitters scuffling in September, San Diego still scored the third highest number of runs in all of MLB this season. They had the second best run differential (Dodgers) and are the #4 seed in the NL half of the draw. St. Louis, despite not clinching a playoff spot until Sunday, ended up as the #5 seed. They’ve previously eliminated the Padres in three different postseasons. I look for Game 1 of this first round series to go Over the total. 

If there is a question mark for the Padres in Game 1, it has to be starter Chris Paddack, who has been very inconsistent and allowed 4+ runs in four of his last eight regular season starts. Every time that Paddack allowed 4+ runs, he did so in less than five innings. His last start saw him give up 5 in just 3 ⅔ IP. The Over was 9-3 in his 12 regular season starts. While the Cardinals hardly have the most fearsome offense in the National League, look for them to score plenty of runs off Paddack. 

On the flip side, with the Padres averaging 5.3 runs per game at home this year, I have little doubt that they’ll do damage at the plate as well in Game 1. Over the final four reg season games, it seemed that the Padres regained their stride as they scored 21 runs, getting four or more in every game. Kwang-Hyun Kim is who StL is going with for Game 1 and this will be his first ever start against a non-division foe. (These teams did not meet in reg seasons).  Over is 6-2 in SD’s L8 home games with a total of 7.0 to 8.5. Over is 12-5 in the Cardinals’ last 17 playoff games. 10* Over Cardinals/Padres

8* Cincinnati Run Line (12:00 ET): This is a run line play only where I’m taking the Reds +1.5. I thought Cincy underachieved much of the year as this was supposed to be a breakout team the likes of which we saw in San Diego. They really didn’t hit their stride until late in the regular season (won 11 of last 14), but here they are in their first postseason since 2013. With the best starting rotation in the National League, the Reds should prove to be a “difficult out” as the Braves are set to find out in Round 1. Runs figure to be scarce in this series opener, so that makes the RL an even more “attractive option.” 

Trevor Bauer went 5-4 in 11 starts for the Reds this year (6-5 TSR). But that completely undersells just how well he pitched. He led the NL in ERA (1.73) and strikeouts (100). His WHIP (0.795) was also outrageous and the best among NL starters w/ at least nine outings. Bauer made it through six innings in all but one start. There were only three starts where he allowed more than two runs. Bauer getting +1.5 is obviously a major reason we’re taking the Reds in this situation. 

Now opposing Bauer will be Max Fried, an outstanding hurler in his own right that didn’t drop a single regular season start. But Fried has thrown just six innings since Sept 5, leaving him as a bit of a question mark. Going up against Bauer, the margin for error is very slim. No Reds’ opponent scored more than five runs when Bauer started this season and 9 of the 11 scored three runs or fewer. Yes, Atlanta has the vastly superior offense in this matchup, but look for that to be neutralized by the Reds’ superior starting rotation, beginning w/ Bauer in Game 1. 8* Cincinnati Run Line (+1.5)

8* Over Blue Jays/Rays (5:07 ET): Of the four first round series in the American League, this is the only featuring teams that actually met during the regular season. Being that they are rivals from the AL East, the Jays and Rays faced each other quite a bit -- 10 times to be exact. The Over was 7-3 in those 10 head to head matchups and what’s notable about that is only one time did you see a total as low as the one we’ve got for Game 1. It involved today’s starter for Toronto, Matt Shoemaker, and he didn’t last very long.

I was a bit stunned that the Blue Jays elected to go with Shoemaker over Hyun-Jin Ryu in this spot. Ryu is by far Toronto’s best starter, but perhaps he needed the extra day of rest after throwing 100 pitches on Thursday. Regardless of the reason, the decision to start Shoemaker will undoubtedly lead to TB scoring more runs tonight than they would have, if facing Ryu. Shoemaker made only six regular season starts, yet three were against the Rays! The Over was 2-1 and he allowed 3 HR’s in the L2 starts. Shoemaker started just once in September and it was back on the 21st. He could be rusty. 

Few are giving Toronto much of a chance in this best of three series at Tropicana Field. But they actually did outscore the Rays in the 10 regular season meetings, 48-44. The Blue Jays offense averaged 5.0 rpg in the regular season and 5.1 against left-handed starters. They face southpaw Blake Snell in Game 1. Snell has good numbers but also never pitched a full six innings in any of his 11 starts. Both times he started against the Jays, the game ended up going Over. The Over was 8-3 in Snell starts for the year. 8* Over Blue Jays/Rays

10* Minnesota (2:05 ET): It has been 16 long years since the Twins last won a playoff game. That’s remarkable, especially considering they’ve made the postseason four times since then. Three of those four times saw them get swept in the ALDS. Then came last year’s Wild Card game vs. the Yankees. Of note, 13 of the Twins’ 16 straight playoff game losses have come against the team that wears pinstripes. They’ve thankfully avoided the Yankees this time and have a surprisingly favorable matchup with the Astros in Rd 1. 

Calling the Astros a “favorable matchup” may sound strange given all that they’ve accomplished the last several seasons. But the 2020 edition simply hasn’t been the same. The offseason was unprecedented for every team in baseball, but for Houston it was particularly ugly as they had to deal with all the fallout from the cheating scandal. A number of key injuries soon followed and the Astros ended up outscoring foes by only four runs this year. They also finished two games BELOW .500, which was the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants. 

There are a ton of other factors pointing the Twins way in this series. Houston won just NINE games away from home during the regular season, easily the fewest among ALL playoff teams. I love Minny here in Game 1 behind Kenta Maeda, who finished 6-1 in 11 starts (8-3 TSR) w/ a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. At home, Maeda was even better w/ a 5-0 TSR, 1.91 ERA and 0.545 WHIP. Zack Greinke, the Game 1 starter for the Astros, just isn’t what he used to be as he allowed 3+ ER in each of his last seven starts (5.73 ERA). Greinke did not win on the road all year. 10* Minnesota

8* Over Astros/Twins (2:05 ET): All things considered, this is a pretty favorable matchup for Minnesota. Houston had the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants and has won just NINE times away from home all season. These road woes are felt particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. While the offensive numbers are fairly consistent home vs. road, the Astros give up 5.8 runs per game on the road, which is way up from the number they allow at home (3.4). That, coupled with the Minnesota offense, has me thinking Over in Game 1.

Even the once-great Zack Greinke was not immune to the Astros’ pitching woes on the road. He failed to win a single road start during the regular season (0-5 TSR). Greinke also wasn’t particularly effective down the stretch either, regardless of where he pitched. Over his last 7 starts, he’s given up at least 3 ER every time out and has a 5.73 ERA. He never lasted longer than six innings in any of those seven starts, which is key because Houston’s bullpen numbers are up as well on the road.

It was Greinke’s four-seam fastball that proved most vulnerable and that’s the pitch he throws most often. Opposing hitters had a .321 average against it and slugged .536. Two of the Twins’ top hitters - Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano - slugged .868 and .635 respectively against four-seamers in the regular season. I know the Twins have Maeda pitching and allowed the fewest # of runs per game at home in MLB. But Maeda’s final reg season start did go Over and this Twins offense is good enough to send this one Over almost by its lonesome. 8* Over Astros/Twins

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox, one of the real breakout teams this year in MLB, have picked a BAD time to play their worst baseball of the season. Granted, they have already clinched a playoff berth. But their range of possible seeding has gotten very wide, thanks to a six-game losing streak. They could be as high as the #2 seed if they were to win their division, a race which they currently trail by 1 game. But because of this losing skid, they could fall as low as the #7 seed if they were to finish behind both the Twins and Indians in the AL Central.

First things first, the White Sox just need to win a game. I like their chances tonight behind Dane Dunning, who has a 5-1 team start record to go along with a 3.19 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. While Dunning is off his worst start to date, one in which he allowed 4 runs in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland, he still has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s also unbeaten at home w/ a 0.735 WHIP. 

A 10-0 loss last night to the Cubs was a total embarrassment for the White Sox. Consider that the Cubs had been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their previous nine games, including 1 or 0 five times. The Cubs have not technically clinched the NL Central, but it’s extremely unlikely that they wouldn’t get the pennant given their current lead is at three games. The White Sox still have the best run differential in the American League (+58) and scored eight times off Jon Lester (Saturday’s starter for Cubs) in just 3 ⅔ innings back on August 21st. 8* Chi White Sox

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The American League playoff field is set with all eight teams having clinched. Of course, you can count the Yankees among the field. They can no longer win their division (AL East), but still need to secure their position as a probable 4 or 5 seed for the postseason (4th being obviously preferred). Last night’s 4-1 loss to Toronto didn’t help nor has losing four of the past five games overall. But now the Yanks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. Look for them to take this series opener.

The National League playoff field is far from set with four spots still up for grabs. There are six teams vying for those four spots, all separated by just 1.5 games. Among the six, Miami has arguably the “clearest path” as their magic number is down to two and all they need to do is finish second in the NL East. But their very poor -40 YTD run differential (7th worst in MLB!) tells me this is NOT a great team and this final series of the regular season is hardly an ideal matchup.

The Marlins did win yday, 4-2 in Atlanta. But they had to endure a 99-minute rain delay in the process. Now they travel up to NY and have to face the red hot J.A. Happ, who threw eight shutout innings in Boston his last time out. Over his L3 starts, Happ has a 1.40 ERA and 0.776 WHIP. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well of late too, but I trust him less as he’s gone more than six innings just one time all year. Remember that the Yankees won 10 in a row from 9/9-9/19. Their last home loss was on September 2nd! 7* NY Yankees

9* Milwaukee (8:15 ET): The Brewers can’t say that they don’t have a chance to play their way right into the postseason. Unfortunately for them, they just dropped two of three in Cincinnati, a costly result as they are now a full game back of where they need to be. However, they still largely control their own destiny due to facing St. Louis this weekend (for FIVE games). The Cardinals are one of FOUR teams that’s just a game up on the Brew Crew. Just to be clear, there are currently six teams within a game of .500 right now in the National League. Four of them will make the playoffs. The winner of this series is likely to be one of the four.

The Cards certainly didn’t boost their own postseason hopes when they dropped two of three in Kansas City. They lost 12-3 yesterday. Two of the three runs that they scored came in the ninth inning. Having just played 13 road games in 10 days, you’ve got to wonder what the Redbirds may have left in the tank this weekend as they get set to play their second 5-game series with the Brew Crew this season. Milwaukee won 3 of 5 at Miller Park earlier this month.

St. Louis will lean heavily on starter Kwang-Hyun Kim on Thursday. He’s pitched well in six starts, though he did just give up 4 runs his last time out and that was against last place Pittsburgh. The problem for Kim and the Cards is that Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has pitched just as well this season, if not better. Burnes tossed six scoreless innings his last time out and has 47 strikeouts his L5 starts. Even more impressive, he’s allowed just two runs (one unearned) in those five starts. For the year, Burnes now has a 1.25 ERA and 0.90 ERA. In a “must-win,” he’s exactly who the Brewers want on the mound in this situation. 9* Milwaukee

10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): There are five teams in the American League Central. Three of them have already booked their tickets to the playoffs. These are the other two. While it may not seem like the Tigers and Royals have much to play for this weekend, the loser of this series will finish last in the division. Kansas City actually has a vastly superior run differential (-27 vs. -66), which tells me they are the team likely to have the successful series here. I’m grabbing them on the moneyline in Thursday’s opener.

There was a time when Detroit fancied itself as having a shot to make the playoffs. The (then) 8th place Yankees were slumping and the Tigers were within a game of the playoff cut line. Unfortunately, since then, they have not done much. The season took nasty turn with a 19-0 loss to Milwaukee (I had the Brewers in that one!) and overall the Tigers are now just 5-16 their L21 games. They’ve been shutout five times in that stretch. They’ve lost three in a row overall and five straight road games coming into tonight. Meanwhile, KC did a good job at playing “spoiler” earlier this week, taking two of three from St. Louis including a 12-3 win yday.

I definitely like tonight’s starting pitching matchup from the Royals perspective. While Kris Bubic has a 1-8 TSR, the reality is that he’s pitched much better than his record. He has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run on one hit in 5 ⅓ innings and the run was unearned. Detroit is going with Michael Fulmer in this game and that’s almost an automatic “play against” at this point. Having yet to pitch more than three innings in any start, Fulmer remains winless in nine trips to the mound. He has a 8.17 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. He’s 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. KC. 10* Kansas City

7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): Let’s roll with the Giants again as they brought home a 5-2 victory last night for us. Coming off a 7-2 loss Monday, I said they (SF) couldn’t afford many more losses considering the tight Wild Card race that they are currently involved in. While finishing second place in one’s division guarantees a playoff spot, the Giants don’t have that luxury as the top two in the NL West (LA and San Diego) have already both clinched. Right now, there are three teams at .500 (Giants, Reds, Brewers) all tied for the two “Wild Card” spots. Seeing as the Reds and Brewers are currently facing one another, this series is a great chance for San Fran to make its move.

The Rockies should be more than happy to oblige when it comes to the Giants making a run at the postseason. Colorado’s chances of making the playoffs are now rendered miniscule and they have the NL’s second worst run differential (-63) anyway. Ironically, it was a 23-5 loss to these Giants that essentially “sank” the Rockies’ season. They haven’t been the same since and it’s been a pretty miserable September overall.

Ryan Castellani will get the baseball for Colorado here. He made an impressive big-league debut back on 8.8 (against the lowly Mariners), but since then it’s been all downhill for the rookie. The team has won just two of his last seven starts with the last one being a real rough outing against the Dodgers. He allowed eight runs in 4 ⅓. Logan Webb is also off a rough outing here for the Giants, but he should turn it around against a Rockies’ lineup that is hitting just .223 on the road and now minus Nolan Arenado. 7* San Francisco

8* Boston (7:35 ET): This season has been mostly bereft of highlights in Beantown, but tonight should mark an easy win for the Red Sox as they look to sweep the final series at Fenway Park. They beat Baltimore 8-3 last night, improving their mark to 32-14 the L3 seasons vs. the O’s. While it’s highly unusual for the Red Sox to be looking up at the Orioles in the standings, you can look for the home team to continue to own its division rival tonight as it sends Nathan Eovaldi to the bump.

Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP his last three starts. During that time, he’s allowed only 2 ER in 15 IP. He has 17 strikeouts and just one walk. Tonight marks the third time he’s faced Baltimore in 2020 and so far his TSR is 2-0 as he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings. The Red Sox won those two games by a combined score of 20-3 (13-1 and 7-2). Take away one disastrous start at Yankee Stadium and Eovaldi has had a really nice year. 

Boston still has a chance to pass Baltimore and get out of last place in the American League East. Look for that to be a point of emphasis in the final week of the season. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and scored three runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games, including each of the last five. Dean Kremer will start for them Wednesday. While his numbers through three starts have been good, it’s still a small sample and the Orioles have scored just one run for him each of his last two times out. 8* Boston

6* Houston (6:40 ET): Barring something unforeseen, the Astros will end up as the 6-seed in the American League playoffs and face the division winner with the worst record in the first round. While that’s not up to the standard set in Houston these last few seasons, the ‘Stros will certainly “take it” considering all the controversy that surrounded the franchise in the offseason (cheating!), not to mention an unprecedented regular season that has seen them have to deal with countless injuries. A win tonight would clinch a playoff spot. 

If only they could play Seattle every day, Houston would be much happier. With last night’s 6-1 victory, they moved to 25-3 vs. the Mariners since the start of last season. They are 7-2 against their division rival in 2020. As if you needed to be reminded, Seattle is in the midst of a terrible season that’s been further complicated recently with the air quality in the area forcing them to play “home games” on the road. 

The Astros have been road favorites of -175 or higher only one time this season. They won and are 52-16 in that role in the L3 seasons. Sending out Zack Greinke tonight should ensure another victory. Grienke is 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Seattle. While 2020 hasn’t been his best year by any means, Grienke still has a 1.075 WHIP. Seattle can only counter with Nick Margevicius, who has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, not to mention a 6.89 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. The Astros have seen him twice already this season. 6* Houston

10* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants lost to the Rockies last night, 6-2. They can’t afford many more results like that. With only seven games left on the regular season schedule, SF is one of five NL teams hovering around .500. There are four playoff spots still available and some of them will go to teams that finish second in their division. The Giants have no such luxury as the top two teams in the NL West (Dodgers, Padres) have already clinched. They need a strong finish this week. 

Colorado now has won two straight days, but still has the 2nd worst run differential (-60) in the entire National League. This is a team that, unlike the Giants, has virtually no shot of reaching the postseason. While they’re now 5-2 vs. SF this season, one of those losses was by a score of 23-5. It was that singular result that really began the Rockies’ “downward spiral” as they’ve been a below .500 team ever since. Tuesday’s starter Kyle Freeland is winless in his L9 tries including an 0-3 TSR his L3.

Meanwhile, the Giants are 3-0 this year with spot starter Drew Smyly on the bump. This will be the first time Smyly takes consecutive turns in the starting rotation. Smyly has 15 strikeouts in the last two starts, which is impressive as he’s been in there for a total of just 7 ⅔ IP. The Rockies have shut down Nolan Arenado for the season, so that weakens their lineup. That’s good news here for Smyly and the Giants, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. The Rockies are averaging only 4.1 rpg on the road. 10* San Francisco

9* Arizona (9:10 ET): Even though eight playoff spots are available in both leagues this season, don’t look for the Rangers or Diamondbacks to be any sort of factor in the postseason hunt this final week of the regular season (other than “spoiler.”) These two also-rans open up a series Tuesday in Chase Field, both simply hoping they won’t finish in last place in their respective divisions. Arizona has had a slightly better season as Texas checks in with the worst record (19-35) and run differential (-79) in the American League. 

The Rangers played yesterday. Arizona did not. It was an 8-5 loss in LA (to the Angels) for the visitors Monday, their fifth loss in the last seven games. One of the two wins during that stretch was 1-0. This is a team hitting a collective .214 for the year and they’re down to .183 those L7 games. Making matters worse for Texas is that Jordan Lyles is on the mound today.He is 0-4 in four road starts with a 7.59 ERA. His season ERA is 7.82. The team has lost his L4 starts overall. 

While just 7-23 in their L30 games, Arizona does have the NL Player of the Week among their ranks. Kole Calhoun homered six times last week and hit .458 overall with a 1.250 slugging percentage. As a team, Arizona has hit much better than Texas has in 2020. Caleb Smith starts for just the 4th time tonight for the D’backs. I think this will be the best outing yet, given the opposition. For what it’s worth, the D’backs do NOT have the worst run differential within their own division (Colorado does) and I think there’s a chance they end up ahead of the Rockies by season’s end. 9* Arizona

9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Despite only scoring two runs and striking out 16 times, the Rays still managed to beat the Mets last night. They were facing Jacob deGrom, so they’ll take the win, ugly or not. Now Tampa Bay can wrap up the American League East with a win today (or Yankees loss to Toronto), which would guarantee them no lower than a 3-seed in the playoffs. No need to rely on the Blue Jays for help today. Look for the Rays to handle their own business and clinch the division w/ a win.

Having deGrom on the mound obviously gave the Mets their best chance of getting a win in this series. They failed, in large part due to an anemic offense that could manage only four hits. This on the heels of being shutout on Sunday. It was the 6th time in 9 games that the Mets were held to three runs or fewer as they’ve watched their playoff odds shrink rapidly. That kind of effort at the plate will almost never cut it. It certainly won’t tonight if starter Seth Lugo pitches anywhere close to as bad as he did his last time out when he gave up four home runs in 1 ⅔ innings. The Mets somehow still won that game (10-6), but that was lucky.

Blake Snell is likely to shut the Mets down in this game. The Rays starter for Tuesday has allowed 3 ER or less in every start but one this year and that came when he faced the same opponent (Miami) for a second straight time. In five road starts, Snell has a 0.986 WHIP. The Rays are simply better than the Mets even without a clear advantage on the mound. They should have little difficulty winning here. 9* Tampa Bay

7* Philadelphia (3:05 ET): This is the first game of a doubleheader on Tuesday. I grabbed the Nationals +1.5 in last night’s series opener. Turns out that the run line wasn’t even necessary as the reigning WS Champs picked up their first victory of the year (in seven tries) over the Phillies (by a score of 5-1). Some context on that win needs to be shared, however. In addition to all the Phillies’ injuries I discussed in yday’s analysis, they wound up going hitless w/ RISP, committed three errors, were thrown out twice trying to steal and manager Joe Girardi was ejected!

Bryce Harper (back stiffness) did suit up for the Phils last night, though he was 0 for 4. The Phillies badly need to sweep this doubleheader today. Y’day’s loss dropped them into 8th overall in the National League, just one-half game ahead of both the Brewers & Giants for the final playoff spot. It may seem odd to back them a day after fading, but the main reason I like the Phils here in Game 1 is that they have Aaron Nola starting. He’s been the staff’s most reliable starter this season. 

It’s not just that Washington is 10-27 vs. righties this season. They are 0-2 vs. Nola. Both starts saw Nola pitch at least seven innings. He allowed two runs total and the last start saw him allow zero in eight solid innings of work. Nola has the lowest WHIP (0.973) in the Phillies starting rotation. He’ll be opposed by Austin Voth, who has struggled all year long with an 0-5 record (2-7 TSR), 7.17 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. The Nats got their win yday, but are just 1-6 vs. Philly in 2020 and don’t figure to do well in this first game Tuesday. 7* Philadelphia

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Cardinals can easily end up finishing fifth in the National League’s playoff bracket. But that would likely mean a first round matchup with the Padres. The division (NL Central) also remains in play for the Cards entering the final week of the season. But they’ll need a big push to overtake the Cubs, who are 3.5 games in front of them. Then you have the matter of the two teams right behind St. Louis - Cincinnati & Milwaukee - both of whom could knock the Redbirds right out of the postseason picture. The bottom line is that the Cards really need to dominate this series with the Royals. 

I like their chances Monday behind Adam Wainwright, who has a 6-2 TSR w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wainwright is coming off four consecutive quality outings, one of which was a complete game. He’s also pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City, his most common AL opponent, going 5-2 w/ a 3.96 ERA in 13 appearances. The Cardinals come into this series having just taken four straight in a five-game series from another last place team (Pittsburgh). They should have no issues beating another “cellar-dweller.” Last month, they took two of three from the Royals at home. 

Over the weekend, Kansas City did St. Louis no favors as it was swept in Milwaukee. When not facing the Pirates or Tigers, the Royals are just 3-10 this month. With no realistic playoff aspirations, they should be “easy prey” for the Redbirds as I don’t have much confidence in Carlos Hernandez, who allowed three home runs in three innings in his big league debut. Somehow the Royals managed to win that game (all 3 HR’s were solo shots), but they won’t be that fortunate this time around. 8* St. Louis

8* Run Line Washington (6:05 ET): First off, be sure to note that we’re playing the Nationals on the RUN LINE here (+1.5). While it’s been quite the disappointing season overall for the World Series Champs, perhaps the most frustrating thing is an 0-6 head to head record with the division rival Phillies. Even that record up and they might very well still be viable for the playoffs heading into the final week of the regular season. I believe they’re going to get AT LEAST one in this series, so take them on the RL Monday just to be safe. 

Now Washington did play a doubleheader on Sunday. Despite allowing just two runs in 14 innings, they had to settle for a split with Miami. The Nationals lost the first game 2-1 before roaring back to take the second game 15-0. It was their second shutout of the series, although they still ended up dropping three of five overall to the Marlins (teams played two doubleheaders). I realize that Anibal Sanchez (Monday’s starter) has mostly struggled in 2020, but he’ll be facing a severely depleted Phillies lineup tonight.

The Phillies were already without J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins from their every day lineup. So you can imagine the feeling when Bryce Harper exited Sunday’s game vs. Toronto (a 6-3 loss) with back tightness. Harper’s status is questionable for Monday and beyond. The Phils will have to heavily lean on starter Zach Wheeler tonight, but the problem is he’s 6-10 all-time vs. the Nats with a 4.71 ERA in 19 starts. The Phillies are a sub-.500 team on the road this year, not to mention 31 games under the L3 seasons! 8* Run Line Washington

10* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): This number (ML) opened far too low and sharp bettors (like myself!) have rightfully pounced on it. I should not have to tell you that the Dodgers are the best team in baseball this year. Just about every metric reinforces that claim. They have the best record (38-15) and by far the best run differential (+122). When looking at the run differential, be aware that only a handful of teams LY (in a full 162-game season) outscored their opponents by that margin. This is a dominant team winning by more than two full runs per game right now!

You need not tell Colorado about the Dodgers. They’ve lost three in a row to them this weekend at Coors Field, every loss coming by 5+ runs. The L2 seasons have seen the Rockies go 6-22 vs. Dodger Blue. They are 13-35 L48 head to head matchups. Making matters worse, the Rockies have dropped 9 of 11 overall. They’ve scored more than three runs just three times in that stretch. That’s even with the L8 games all taking place here at Coors Field!

Not that LA needs more of an advantage, but today they have Tony Gonsolin on the mound. In six starts, Gonsolin has a 0.88 ERA and 0.685 WHIP. Those are sick numbers. By the way, the Dodgers have now won five in a row overall. They are the last opponent Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela wanted to see. Though Senzatela has pitched well this year (even here at home!), he has a 6.50 ERA in nine career appearances vs. LA. The Dodgers are 71-31 in day games the L3 seasons including 10-1 this year. This shapes up as a VERY lopsided affair. 10* LA Dodgers

7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): If ever the Indians are down, they can always count on the Tigers to bring them back up. After coming into this series on an 8-game losing streak, Cleveland has won two straight in the Motor City, including 1-0 last night. That was a bit “too close for comfort” (I had CLE), but nevertheless the Tribe is now 24-3 vs. the Tigers since the start of last season. I’ll take them again tonight as they look to further strengthen their playoff position.

The Indians got a tremendous start out of Zach Plesac last night. He pitched into the 8th inning and allowed only five hits with 11 strikeouts. In one inning, he retired the side with nine consecutive strikes! I expect another sharp effort on the mound from tonight’s starter Triston McKenzie. This young rookie has a 0.79 WHIP in his 5 starts despite a less than stellar showing vs. Minnesota last Sunday. If you recall from yday’s analysis, Plesac was also coming off an outing against the Twins that was his worst of the season. I said he’d bounce back and he did. Same with McKenzie. 

Yesterday was the 4th time in the L10 games that Detroit was shutout. Two of those four losses came by 14 or more runs! They’ve also allowed 10+ runs four times in the same 10-game stretch, which has seen them go 2-8 and get outscored 72-22 in the process. The only three runs they’ve scored in their L3 games all came in the 8th inning of Thursday’s opener (when they were already down 10-0). Saturday starter Spencer Turnbull has allowed 5 runs in two of his previous three starts. Cleveland is now 8-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season. 7* Cleveland

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): Along with the White Sox over in the American League, the Padres have emerged as one of the nice “success stories” of the 2020 MLB season. San Diego is in great shape right now, having scored the 2nd most runs in all of baseball. Their WL record is second only to the Dodgers among all NL teams and their run differential is third best in all of baseball. While they just dropped two of three at home to LA (disappointing), San Diego should find this series against bottom-feeder Seattle quite conducive to success.

A nice edge the Padres have coming into Friday’s opener is that they were off Thursday. Seattle was busy hosting San Francisco yesterday and lost 6-4. The Mariners dropped both games in that series and have lost six of their last nine overall. As was pretty much expected, the M’s are having a rough year as they’ve been outscored by 52 runs, which is the 6th worst differential in all of baseball. They are easily MLB’s “worst third place team” right now.

Oh, by the way - this game is being played in San Diego, NOT Seattle. This is due to ongoing issues with the air out on the West Coast. Again, like having yesterday off, it’s an added advantage the Padres have that they didn’t really need. But we’ll take it! Though they will still come up to bat first, I don't think that's as big a deal as the game taking place in Petco Park where the Padres have gone 19-8 this season. Chris Paddack gets the start. He’ll be looking to get back on track after spraining his ankle on Sept 10. He should be fine facing a Seattle lineup that hasn’t hit well its last eight games. The Mariners go with Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed 4 or more runs in three of his previous five starts. 8* San Diego

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Kansas City has made a bit of a surprising surge, winning seven of its last eight ball games. I had them Wednesday when they downed the Tigers 4-0, which was their third shutout victory in the last seven games! But coming off consecutive series vs. lightweights Detroit & Pittsburgh, I think the Royals are in for a bit of a “rude awakening” tonight in Milwaukee as they face a Brewers team that has also posted three shutout wins in its L9 games including one the last time they took the field.

The Brew Crew just gone done playing a five-game series with St. Louis which featured two doubleheaders. It should be noted that the teams split both twin bills, but Milwaukee won the one “standalone” game, 18-3. Like the Royals, Milwaukee had Thursday off, which was much needed after playing five games in three days. Unlike the Royals, the Brewers are still very much alive in the playoff race. They should be the more motivated team this weekend.

While Friday starter Adrian Houser is not responsible for any of the Brewers’ three recent shutouts, I do think he’ll pitch well tonight. That might sound like a “leap of faith” considering recent efforts (he’s 0-5 L7 starts) including him being on the WRONG end of a 12-0 loss to the Cubs last Saturday. But five of the seven runs charged to Houser in that one were unearned. Danny Duffy goes for the Royals and it will be interesting to see how he does given an unexpected three extra days off between starts. Duffy was supposed to start Tuesday, but missed the team plane and thus got himself scratched. The bottom line is that KC is just 2-9 this season as a ML road dog of +125 to +175. They are 19-42 in that same range the L3 seasons. 8* Milwaukee

7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): So it turns out that all the Indians needed to snap an 8-game losing streak was a matchup with their favorite foe. Since the start of last season, the Tribe is 23-3 vs. the Tigers. They are now 4-0 at Comerica Park in 2020. While they may have struggled as of late, where Cleveland has been exceptional this year is as a road favorite of -125 or higher. They are now 14-2 when priced in that range and they’re back there again tonight as they look to make it two in a row over the hapless Tigers. Look for them to get it done.

Winning last night was no problem for the Indians as they had ace Shane Bieber on the mound (closed -300 on the ML!). Still, it had to feel good to win in 10-3 fashion considering the eight straight losses that preceded last night’s victory. Bieber didn’t allow a run until the 8th (not sure why he was left in when it was 10-0), meaning Detroit had gone 16 consecutive innings w/o scoring a run. The Tigers were also shutout on Wednesday by KC (I had the Royals!), the fourth time they’d been shutout this month. Had they not scored the three “meaningless” runs last night, it would have been the Tigers’ third shutout loss by 10+ runs in the L9 games. This team is sinking fast. 

Zach Plesac may not be Bieber, but he does have a 2.20 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in six starts. I also like his 39-3 KW ratio. Given those numbers, you’d think he’d have a better TSR than 3-3. Plesac is off his worst outing to date, but that was against Minnesota and he should easily bounce back tonight. Michael Fulmer gets the nod here for the Tigers and he still hasn’t won this year in eight tries. He has a 9.27 ERA and 2.149 WHIP to boot. In 10 career starts vs. Cleveland, Fulmer has a 7.46 ERA. 7* Cleveland

10* Under Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): Even after a 5-4 win last night here in Philly, the Mets’ postseason odds aren’t looking too good. Making matters worse is that Jacob deGrom was forced to exit early last night due to a hamstring spasm. All things considered, the Mets should feel pretty fortunate that they won Wednesday. deGrom gave up four runs in two innings, which put them in a serious hole. But they were able to rally for five of their own, putting them 2.5 games back of the Phillies for the final NL playoff berth. 

For the Phillies, last night was a blown opportunity. Being up 4-0 early on deGrom is an advantage few teams get to enjoy. It marked the 5th consecutive game that the Phils failed to score more than four runs. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s not just that they have the 2.5 game edge over the Mets in the standings, but also Aaron Nola will be on the mound Thursday. Nola was originally going to start yesterday, but was bumped back a day to allow Zack Wheeler to make his 2020 debut. Nola is the staff ace as he’s posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in nine starts this year. He is 8-2 w/ a 3.00 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Mets.

Even though the Mets are 0-4 as a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Phillies are 10-1 as home favorites of -125 to -175, I’m not going to back the home team here, even w/ Nola starting. This is for two reasons. One is that their every day lineup has been decimated by injuries (explains the lack of scoring recently). Also the Mets have Seth Lugo starting. Lugo has solid numbers (2.65 ERA overall, 0.96 WHIP on the road) and the Under is 3-0-1 in his four starts. Tonight’s rubber match should belong to the starting pitchers. 10* Under Mets/Phillies

10* Under Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): The overall numbers for Houston starter Lance McCullers, Jr this season are not particularly inspiring. However, it is quite clear that when he’s on the mound at home, McCullers is a much different pitcher. He’s 3-0 in his four Minute Maid Park appearances with the team winning all four. McCullers has a 1.82 ERA and 0.892 WHIP here as well, so it’s definitely more “good” than “lucky.” Tonight he’s facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league, so it should be more “good!”

Tonight marks McCullers return to the rotation after a 10-day stint on the DL. His last start was one to forget as he failed to record a single out before giving up three runs. He hasn’t made a full start since Aug 29th when here at home he held the first place A’s to just two runs (one unearned) in six innings. Clearly, he was bothered by the neck issue in that last start. Fresh and ready to go, I expect another strong effort on the mound tonight from McCullers. The Rangers had just four baserunners in last night’s 4-1 loss here and are last in the American League in runs scored, batting average and OPS.

Not all the news was good last night for Houston as they near a 4th straight playoff appearance. Just as Jose Altuve returned to the lineup, Carlos Correa went down with an injury. Altuve did score a run in his return (after walking), but was 0 for 3 otherwise. I’m fully aware of how brutal Kyle Gibson has been this year for the Rangers, but Houston isn’t the same team offensively as they’ve been in years past. In fact, they are batting a collective .203 the L7 games. With the home team being such a large favorite, my hope is we avoid playing the bottom of the ninth tonight. That always helps the Under. 10* Under Rangers/Astros

10* Kansas City (7:10 ET): The Royals are obviously not road favorites very often and it might shock you that they are here, coming off a 6-0 loss to the Tigers last night. But prior to that loss, KC had won six in a row including two shutouts and two wins by 10 or more runs. The Tigers had certainly been trending in a much different direction as they’d dropped five of six going into yday while being outscored 57-13! During that stretch, they suffered losses of 14-0 and 19-0! The Tigers never should have been considered a serious playoff contender as is obvious by the fact they are a home dog here against Kansas City. 

The last time Brady Singer got the baseball for the Royals, he delivered eight innings of one-hit ball against Cleveland. He didn’t allow the hit until the 8th inning and the team won that game 11-1. It was certainly Singer’s best start of the year. Seeing as the Tigers had been held to three runs or less in five of their six games previous to yesterday, I fully anticipate Singer pitching well yet again. 

An interesting subplot of last night’s game is that the Royals were supposed to start Danny Duffy, but he missed the team’s plane and had to be scratched! Duffy certainly would have pitched better than replacement Jakob Junis, who allowed five runs in just 2 ⅓ IP. Now obviously it would have helped had the Royals scored some runs. They will tonight against Tarik Skubal, who allowed six runs in two innings his last start and now has a 7.27 ERA for the season. The Tigers made a number of roster moves in the L24 hours that suggest they won’t really be trying (to win) the rest of the way. 10* Kansas City

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): The Angels have been one of the bigger money-burners in the league this season as they are down 12.2 units entering the week. But they’ve cut into that deficit in recent days, winning both Saturday & Sunday in Colorado, the latter being our 10* Game of the Week. The Halos have been reliable as a ML favorite of -125 to -175 at home, going 45-26 in that price range the L3 seasons including a 4-1 mark here in 2020. I like them quite a bit tonight facing a team that’s been even worse to bet on, Arizona, who is -14.0 units for the season. 

We’ve got a rather ugly pitching matchup for Tuesday’s opener as Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran are a combined 0-7 this year. These are two former All Stars! The numbers of both indicate they each probably deserve to be winless, although Teheran did pitch well against San Diego (highest scoring team in the league) two starts ago and Bumgarner has been a bit better since returning from injury. Still, I favor Teheran as he’s gone 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in his career vs. Arizona.

The D’backs are in last place in the NL West with no shot of making the playoffs. Their -49 run differential is the 2nd worst in the National League right now. They’ve lost seven of nine including two in a row to a bad Seattle team over the weekend. Over those L9 games, Arizona has scored 4 runs or less seven times, so that’s another reason to like Teheran’s chances here. The D’backs are just 6-18 on the road, averaging 3.4 runs per game with a team batting average of .214. 10* LA Angels

8* Oakland (8:40 ET): The A’s have played three doubleheaders in the last 7 days, one of which was yday (split w/ Seattle), but do not expect any kind of letdown as they open a series with Colorado on Monday. The AL West leaders have some revenge on their mind here as they dropped a pair of home games to the Rockies early in the season. That was during an 11-3 start to the season for Colorado. Since then, they’ve gone just 10-22 with September being particularly brutal thus far. Go with the favorite in this one. 

Having played so many games (10!) in the last week, Oakland could obviously use a good start here and fortunately they’ve got Sean Manaea on the mound. The team has won his L5 starts w/ Manaea going 4-0 the L4 with a 1.61 ERA. Even better, he has a 0.765 WHIP in the L3. Last time out was his best start to date as he went seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits against Houston. Manaea did not face Colorado in the prior series.

For Colorado, the month began with a 23-5 loss to the Giants. They’ve never really recovered. After dropping two in a row to the Angels this past weekend, the Rockies’ record in the L13 games is just 4-9. Even their hitter-friendly home park couldn’t do much over the weekend for the scuffling lineup as they scored just 2 and 3 runs in those losses. I faded them Sunday as my Game of the Week and they’re matched up with an even stronger opponent here, one that wants revenge for the early season sweep. The Rockies are 0-3 as home dogs of +125 to +175 this season. 8* Oakland

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The White Sox have surpassed even the most optimistic projections for 2020 as they lead the AL Central w/ a 30-16 record and have a +77 run differential after winning the L4 games. They are also a MLB-best +12.4 units at the pay window. However, still hot on their heels are the Twins, last year’s division champ. Entering this series, the division deficit is just one game for Minnesota and they have taken two of three in each of the previous two series between the teams.

Minnesota is also favored for Monday’s opener, which may surprise some given how hot the White Sox have been recently. However, the Twins just swept a pretty good Cleveland team and are 9-2 L11 themselves. They send Jose Berrios out to the hill tonight. Berrios has faced Chicago twice in 2020 and the Twins are 2-0 in those games. The last one saw him go six innings and allow just 1 ER on 3 hits. Berrios has allowed 3 ER or less in four consecutive starts as well as six of the last eight. 

Since losing two in a row to the Twins to start September, the White Sox have won 8 of 9. But looking at who they’ve faced - KC, Pittsburgh and Detroit - they clearly should have won most of those ballgames. Beware Dylan Cease’s 1.305 WHIP. I say that about Monday’s starter because he has a relatively low ERA, but that WHIP says he’s been a bit fortunate not to have allowed more runners to score. Cease does not strike out many opposing hitters nor has he made it a full six innings in any of the L3 starts. This will be his first time facing Minnesota since a disastrous outing over a year ago when he allowed 8 runs in 2 IP. 10* Minnesota

10* LA Angels (3:05 ET): The Angels have been a big disappointment this season as they are dead LAST in all of MLB in net units (-14.5 units entering yesterday), meaning they’ve been the WORST team to bet on during the 2020 season. But they did win last night, 5-2 here in Colorado, thanks to a three-run HR from Jared Walsh in the top of the 11th. As disappointing as the Halos have been thus far, I look for them to finish this series strong as the Rockies are in a terrible way right now, having lost 8 of 12. 

Colorado’s season started out well enough, but took a dire turn here in September, which began with a 23-5 loss to the Giants. Since then, they haven’t been the same team. They have the second worst run differential in the National League right now and will be sending out Ryan Castellani Sunday. Castellani has an 0-3 TSR at Coors Field this year and a 8.02 ERA/1.621 WHIP. His numbers from his L3 starts overall are pretty similar. He’s made it through six innings just once. While his last start did result in the Rockies winning as a +240 underdog (against the Dodgers), Castellani gave up three home runs in his four innings of work. 

I think it “speaks volumes” to see the Angels so decidedly favored in this rubber match. They’ve won 7 of 10, which included a sweep of the Astros. They’ve also got Andrew Heaney on the mound. Heaney has a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes quality efforts against San Diego and Seattle where he allowed a combined 1 run in 14 IP. Another key here, and this obviously decided the game last night, is that the Rockies’ bullpen has been terrible this year (8.71 ERA and 1.70 WHIP here at home!) 10* LA Angels

8* Toronto (3:07 ET): I had the Mets in the opener of this three-game set, but that was all about taking Jacob deGrom and sure enough he led his team to an 18-1 victory on Friday, a result that was far better than I (or any Mets’ fans for that matter) could have dreamed of. Make no mistake about it, that result is NOT in any way indicative of the respective seasons these teams are having. Toronto is almost certainly playoff bound in the American League while the Mets are struggling to stay relevant in the National League. 

Sure enough, the Blue Jays bounced back on Saturday with a 3-2 victory. While the Jays’ offense has sputtered a bit of late (three runs or fewer each of the L4 games), I don’t think they’ll need many runs today behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 1.20 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets. He’s very familiar with them from his time spent over in the National League. Ryu did struggle his last time out, but that was against the Yankees. Prior to that, he’d allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts!

The Mets have yet to win this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. They are 0-3 in that role. They were priced as pretty significant favorites in the first two games, so only coming away with a split has to be considered a disappointment. David Peterson will start Sunday’s game. He gave up five runs in just two innings his last time out. While the Mets had gone 4-1 in Peterson’s first five starts, he hasn’t pitched on the road since August 2nd. Look for the home team to win the series. 8* Toronto

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees swept a doubleheader against the Orioles yesterday, winning by a combined 16-1 margin (10-1 and 6-0). That really solidifies the Pinstripes as a likely playoff participant (which we all figured they’d be anyway). NY now has a 3.5 game edge over the ninth place team in the AL (Baltimore) and could move up into second place in the AL East with a win today (and Toronto loss). Considering how the Yanks have dominated the O’s through the years, I think they’ll win again today. 

New York is 34-12 vs. Baltimore the L3 seasons, including 22-5 the L27 meetings. I don’t think anybody expected the Orioles to be playoff contenders this season, so this series feels like it will be a “perfect storm” where the Yankees not only solidify their status, but also put the O’s “to bed.” Baltimore had just six hits in the two games Friday. The Yankees hit five home runs. 

Jordan Montgomery hasn’t exactly been Cy Young for the Yankees this year. He’s made it through six innings just once in seven tries. But with the Yankees averaging 5.8 runs per game at home and Baltimore struggling at the plate, I don’t think we need to ask too much out of Montgomery here. Dean Kramer starts for the Orioles today. His only prior start this year was against the YAnkees and he won, allowing just one hit in six innings. But the second time around, the Bronx Bombers will be ready for him. 8* NY Yankees

10* Over Cubs/Brewers (8:10 ET): The Cubs may lead the division, but they’re curiously big underdogs here to the Brewers. That’s likely due to the pitching matchup that’s on tap as Jon Lester has really struggled of late for Chicago. He has a 7.25 ERA and 2.50 WHIP his L3 starts and has given up five or more runs in four of his last five outings. But Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff hasn’t exactly been “lights out” either as he’s lasted six innings just once in his last six tries. I’m on the Over here as a big play. 

Eight of Woodruff’s nine starts this year have stayed Under the total. That seems weird considering, again, he hasn’t been all that dominant. It’s a 5.28 ERA his L3 starts and he’s allowed a total of 7 runs in his last 9 ⅓ IP. He also has six walks during that time. The Cubs scored eight times in yday’s win over the Reds, snapping an 8-game stretch where the Under had been 7-0-1. I expect the Cubs to find success against Woodruff. After all, they do average 5.6 runs per game on the road. They scored three times in 4 ⅓ innings when they faced Woodruff last week. Woodruff now has a 6.00 ERA in seven lifetime appearances vs. the Cubs. 

The biggest reason why the Under is 8-1 in Woodruff starts is Milwaukee simply hasn’t done much scoring of its own. In the eight games that went Under, they’ve scored four or fewer runs. This is a lineup that just put 19 runs on the board Wednesday (I had ‘em) against Detroit with 13 extra base hits. Given Lester’s recent struggles, the Brew Crew should also have a nice night at the plate. 10* Over Cubs/Brewers

6* NY Mets (6:35 ET): When looking at these two teams, it is worth noting that the Mets are having a less successful season despite playing in the weaker National League. However, what the Mets do have is Jacob deGrom and that should be the difference in this one as they head to Buffalo to face the Blue Jays. The Mets are currently three games back of the final playoff spot in the NL and can’t afford to lose w/ their ace on the hill. Fortunately for them, they are already 6-2 in deGrom starts this year and should come through again tonight. 

Because of COVID-19, the Blue Jays were “displaced” for the 2020 season and play their home games at the stadium of their Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo. Tip your cap to the fact they seem playoff bound, although it should be pointed out there’s a huge gap between the top eight and bottom seven in the American League. Really, there was just room for one also-ran to step up this year and that’s been the Jays. 

Toronto lost on Wednesday (7-2 to the Yankees) and has also lost the last three times tonight’s starter Chase Anderson has been on the bump. Last time out, Anderson surrendered six runs and that was to last place Boston. deGrom has surrendered just 9 ER ALL SEASON and is coming off another strong effort in which he struck out 12 in a 14-1 win over the Phillies. deGrom has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start this year. The Mets badly need this game and fortunately (for them) have the right guy on the mound to get the job done. 6* NY Mets

7* LA Angels (4:05 ET): Oops. We’ve been on the Angels each of the L2 days, thinking it was “their time” to gain a measure of revenge for a prior sweep that occurred here in Arlington last month. Alas, the Halos have lost the first two games of the series, 7-1 and 7-3. Not even an early 2-0 lead mattered last night as the Rangers stormed back w/ one big inning (5-run fifth). But, finally, “today should be the day” as the Angels finally have the pitching mismatch they need to get the job done. As a reminder, Los Angeles came into the series on a five-game win streak. Texas had lost six in a row.

Today’s pitching matchup has Dylan Bundy starting for the Angels. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in eight starts. He opened the season with four consecutive quality starts, including a CG at Seattle. After B2B “rough” outings vs. San Francisco and Oakland, Bundy has since bounced back by allowing just three total runs in wins over Seattle (16-3) and Houston (6-5).

Texas still has the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball (-62) and is just 10-27 this season against every team NOT named the Angels. A lack of depth in the starting rotation has been a BIG problem and today it will be Kyle Gibson on the mound. Not only does Gibson have a 6.97 ERA and 1.694 WHIP at home, his overall team start record is 1-7 (0-4 at home). While the Angels have been big “money-burners” this season, they are still 27-10 L37 as road favorites of -125 to -175. 7* LA Angels

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): The Angels let us down last night, plain and simple. They lost 7-1 and are now 0-4 vs. Texas this season. No team should be 0-4 against the Rangers, who are 14-27 on the year with a -66 run differential. Making last night’s result all the more frustrating is the respective form the teams had flashed coming into this series. The Angels had won five straight while the Rangers had lost six straight. Time to try again as tonight I look for the Halos to gain their revenge. 

Perhaps I underestimated the importance of Lance Lynn starting last night’s game for the Rangers. In his MLB-leading 10th start of the year, Lynn went seven innings and allowed just one run on four hits. But as alluded to in yday’s analysis, Lynn is the only Rangers’ starter having any success this season. The rest of the rotation is a combined 2-14 in 24 starts with the team going only 6-18 in those games. Kyle Cody will be making just his 2nd start here after lasting only three innings his first time out. Texas lost that game, 6-3 to Seattle, last Friday. 

Julio Teheran hasn’t exactly had a stellar season for the Angels, but Wednesday’s starter did have his best outing to date his last time out and it happened to be against the highest-scoring team in all of MLB (Padres). The Angels still lost mind you, 11-4, but Teheran allowed just two runs on three hits. He has a 2.08 ERA in two previous starts vs. Texas. The Rangers’ offense came into the series as the LOWEST scoring in all of baseball and is hitting a collective .215 in their new home park. 10* LA Angels

8* NY Yankees (6:35 ET): The Yankees are in a bit of a free fall. Over the last 20 games, they’ve won just five times. They’ve lost five in a row. This latest losing streak, which includes two straight to Toronto, not only has them now behind the Blue Jays in the AL East but only two up in the win column over Detroit. That last tidbit is important because if Detroit somehow passed them, they’d be out of the top eight in the American League. Nevertheless, the Yankees still have an 83.1% chance of making the postseason and I think it would be wrong to start pushing the proverbial “panic button.”

Injuries and a lack of clutch hitting have been the primary culprits during this Yankees slide. Not having the likes of Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup definitely hurt in yesterday’s 2-1 loss. But it’s a game they still should have won and probably would have if not for stranding 10 baserunners and going 0 for 7 w/ RISP. Toronto’s lineup managed only four hits the entire game and struck out 13 times. 

 Tanner Roark has seen the Blue Jays prevail in each of his L5 starts, but it’s tough to have much faith in a starter w/ a 1.787 WHIP on the year. Furthermore, Roark has a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP his L3 starts. The Yankees counter with Deivi Garcia, who’ll be making only his third career big league start. His debut was great as he allowed just one unearned run in six innings vs. the Mets. Last time out wasn’t as good as he gave up four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But with Roark’s luck due to turn, this should be Garcia’s 1st career win. 8* NY Yankees

8* Milwaukee (1:10 ET): The Brewers were somewhat embarrassed last night as they didn’t score until the 9th inning of what ended up being an 8-3 loss. But when you dig beneath the surface, things weren’t quite as lopsided as you might think. The Brew Crew outhit Detroit, who got most of its runs in one inning. There were three consecutive innings where Milwaukee hit into a double play, preventing them keeping pace with the Tigers’ scoring. All signs point to a bounce back Wednesday afternoon.

With the win last night, the Tigers are now just one game back of the Yankees for the 8th and final playoff spot in the American League. That seems inconceivable given how much losing the Tigers have done the L2 seasons (111-212 record). I remain very skeptical. It’s not like I’m a huge fan of the Brewers’ postseason chances either (as they have a -39 run differential). But they did bounce back in a similar spot vs. the Tigers exactly one week ago. After losing the first game of that series 12-1, they came back and won the next day 8-5. 

Today’s pitching matchup also seems to lean heavily in the favor of Milwaukee. They send out Corbin Burnes, who has gone 2-0 in his five starts with a 1.75 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. Burnes is coming off B2B outstanding performances where he’s allowed no runs in 12 IP w/ 17 strikeouts. The team won both times (in lopsided fashion). Matthew Boyd gets the baseball here for the Tigers and while he’s also off a pair of quality outings (both vs. Minnesota), he still has a 6.64 ERA and 1.426 WHIP on the season. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): Things set up nicely here for the Halos to gain a measure of revenge for a sweep they suffered in this very ballpark last month. Since then, the bottom has really dropped out on the Rangers season. Since starting the year 10-9, Texas has dropped 18 of its last 21 ballgames including each of the last six. They have baseball’s worst run differential (-72) and have next to no chance of making the postseason. Meanwhile, the Angels come in with some “momentum” as they are on a 5-game win streak. 

Lance Lynn gets the baseball Tuesday for the Rangers. While he’s been the team’s best starter in 2020, he alone is not enough to turn the tide. Plus, Lynn has struggled of late, including a rough outing his last time out where he allowed six runs. He did beat the Angels back on August 9th, 7-3, but shouldn’t expect that kind of run support again as the Rangers are hitting just .211 at home this year and have scored the fewest number of runs in either league.

Andrew Heaney came out on the losing end of that August 9th game vs. Lynn and the Rangers, which was part of a rough stretch for the left-handed. But he’s since settled down w/ B2B quality outings that have seen him allow only 1 run in 14 ⅔ IP w/ 16 strikeouts. In half of his starts this season, Heaney has given up 1 ER or less. The Angels have scored 34 runs during their 5-game win streak, so unlike Lynn, Heaney can expect some run support tonight. 10* LA Angels

10* Under Orioles/Mets (7:05 ET): Based on the starting pitching matchup, things don’t exactly seem “ripe” for an Under today between the Orioles & Mets. However, we’ve already begun to see this high number trickle down a bit and with it still being above the key number of 9.0, Under is the correct call. Baltimore has won three straight and just held the Yankees to one run in each of the last two victories. The Mets have had a couple big offensive games recently, but that’s not really indicative of “where they’re at.” 

Baltimore sends John Means to the hill Tuesday. Means is having a rough season with an 0-6 team start record and 8.10 ERA. The Over is 4-1-1 in those six starts, but this will be Means second straight time facing the Mets. Last week, he allowed four runs in 5 ⅓. The Orioles would go on to lose 9-4 as Mets starter Michael Wacha allowed two runs in three innings. Wacha will again oppose Means tonight and both starters are hoping for better results. I think we’ll see that as Wacha has only pitched once at home while Means has only pitched once on the road. Different environments should lead to better results for both starters. 

Both games last week in Baltimore went Over. The teams split the pair with the Mets winning 9-4 with this same pitching matchup and the Orioles winning 9-5. Look for Citi Field to keep things lower scoring tonight as the Mets may not have much left in the tank following last night’s rally from a six-run deficit, which still saw them lose in 10 innings. The 14 runs they put on the board Saturday was a total anomaly and it should be noted the Under is 18-8-5 the Mets’ L31 home games w/ a total of 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Orioles/Mets

10* Oakland (9:10 ET): These teams last met on 8/29 when the Astros swept a doubleheader. Since that twinbill was played, not much has gone right - for either AL West club. Houston has lost five of seven and just got swept over the weekend in Anaheim. Oakland has played one series (due to COVID-19 concerns) and dropped two of three here at home to San Diego. Somebody has to get back on track Monday and I believe that will be the A’s. 

Before that aforementioned doubleheader on 8/29, Oakland swept Houston in a three-game series played at this ballpark. (The doubleheader was played in Houston). The Astros scored just five runs in those three losses here in Oakland, but right now it’s pitching that’s the greater concern as they just surrendered 6+ runs in all four losses to the Angels over the weekend. All four games saw the staff fail to hold leads. 

After endorsing Houston on Sunday (unsuccessful obviously), it may seem odd that I’m now fading them, but it is really “all about the opponent.” Oakland is superior in the pitching department, having surrendered 52 fewer runs this season. Now Monday starter Frankie Montas has struggled of late, but he also previously held Houston scoreless for seven innings of two-hit ball back on 8.8. The only time Cristian Javier (Monday’s starter for the Astros) faced Oakland was 8.9 and he allowed 3 HR’s and lasted only 3 IP. There are injury concerns on both sides, but more for the Astros. 10* Oakland

10* Houston (4:10 ET): The Astros were swept in a doubleheader Saturday, losing both games by a single run (10-9 and 7-6). They also lost 6-5 to the Angels on Friday. The Angels have now won four in a row overall. Despite that and the “perception” the Astros are having a “disappointing” season, I find it quite logical to come back with the favorite here on Sunday. Three consecutive one-run victories over the Halos seems a bit fortunate for a team that’s given up the third most runs in all of MLB. 

Houston had won five of six coming into this series. They now have the most one-run losses of any team (10) and their last four losses have all been by one run. Friday’s opener went extra innings while you should remember that both games yday went only seven. In Friday’s game, they went 3 for 24 w/ RISP and left 12 men on base. Yesterday, they had a 9-7 lead going into the final half-inning in Game 1. They blew three two-run leads in that one. The nightcap saw them again give up three runs in the final frame. They easily could have won all three of these games against the Angels, who remain MLB’s biggest money-burners at -13.7 units for the season.

Framber Valdez makes his seventh start of the year here for the Astros. Thus far, he’s 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. The numbers are even better when he pitches on the road. Valdez faced the Angels on August 24th and finished w/ 11 Ks in 7 IP. Houston won 11-4. He followed that performance up with a quality outing Tuesday vs. Texas. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 5 of 6 starts. Perhaps most importantly, Mike Trout is 0 for 7 lifetime against him w/ three strikeouts. Jaime Barria will be making just his 2nd start of 2020 for the Angels today and only lasted 4 ⅓ his first time out. Even w/o Altuve, Houston gets its revenge. 10* Houston

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Yesterday’s 5-3 loss dropped the Mets to 0-4 vs. the Phillies this season. They were previously swept in a three-game series down in Philly, three weeks ago. That 0-4 head to head record is essentially the sole reason for the gap that currently exists (4.5 games) between the teams in the NL East standing. Philadelphia is 19-15 and in second place while the Mets are 17-22 and in fourth. I think the Mets will get their revenge Saturday and finally beat the Phillies. 

Philadelphia is playing its best baseball of the season right now. They’ve won 5 straight and 9 of 10, greatly improving their postseason odds along the way. It’s now almost a 94% chance that they finish among the top eight in the National League. Still, it’s hard for me to believe in a team that’s been nothing more than average on the road. Heading into yday, the Phillies were allowing 5.7 runs per game away from home and the bullpen remains a big question mark with its 6.54 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. I don’t “love” this team by any means. 

The Mets’ current situation is a bit more precarious, but they very much are alive when it comes to finishing in the top eight. They’d won two straight prior to yday’s loss, scoring nine runs in both victories. They need a good start here from Seth Lugo, who has 12 strikeouts and allowed just 1 run in 6+ IP so far as a starter. The Phillies’ Spencer Howard is the lone member of the rotation NOT to have a 6+ inning outing thus far and he’s got a really high WHIP (1.86) while also allowing 5 HRs.  10* NY Mets

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): San Diego had been one of the hotter teams in all of MLB recently (still 12-4 L16). But they did get blanked last night in Los Angeles (2-0 by the Angels) and tonight they’re in for another rude awakening at the hands of the rested A’s. Oakland has played just one of the last eight days due to a positive COVID-19 test within their own clubhouse (pitcher Daniel Mengden). Not that the first place A’s even really need this situational advantage. They’re 22-12 and have outscored opponents by 36 runs. 

The last time the A’s took the field was 8/29 when they were swept in a doubleheader by the Astros. That, along with all the time off, should have them really motivated when they take the field for tonight’s series opener. They are 13-4 at home thus far with tonight’s starter Jesus Luzardo being on the mound for three of those wins. In addition to the 3-0 TSR, Luzardo has a 1.06 ERA as well as a 1.00 WHIP in his three home starts. This season has seen the A’s allow just 3.0 rpg at home, which is third best in all of baseball.

San Diego has managed to go 9-3 vs. the American League so far, but one of those losses was last night and it came at the hands of the LAST place team in the AL West. While sweeping the Astros was impressive, a 6-3 record against the bottom three of the AL West (Rangers, M’s, Angels) doesn’t impress much. Now the Padres face the best the division has to offer and in the past they’ve really struggled against Oakland, going 10-23 the L33 meetings. Friday starter Zach Davies cannot possibly continue to get the kind of run support he’s seen his last three starts (37 runs!). 10* Oakland

10* Under Brewers/Indians (7:10 ET): The Indians have been an Under machine this season with 67% of their games (24-12-1) landing that way. Division rival Minnesota has actually “surpassed” them for the MLB lead in Unders, but you can’t discount the fact the Tribe are allowing a MLB-low 2.8 runs per game as they allowed just three runs TOTAL in their last series. Of course, the team’s record would be even better were it not for an offense that’s really struggled at times. They’ve scored three runs or less in 18 of 37 games.

Milwaukee has gone Over in three straight as well as six of its last seven. But those games were against very different opposition, Pittsburgh and Detroit, neither of whom has a good pitching staff. Cleveland has allowed three runs or less 27 times so far, which is just phenomenal, and tonight they send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. While four of the five Overs Cleveland has had at home have come with Carrasco pitching, he just threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball at St. Louis last weekend. He’ll pitch fine tonight.

Both teams had Thursday off, so there’s no advantage there. If the Brew Crew are to have a “fighting chance” tonight, it will likely be because of starter Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in four starts. Burnes threw six shutout innings himself last time out, albeit vs. the Pirates, and had 10 strikeouts. But I still see Milwaukee struggling at the plate here as they are 0-2 all-time vs. Carrasco and are hitting just .214 as a team this season. 10* Under Brewers/Indians

8* San Diego (9:40 ET): This is a matchup between pitting one of the league’s more pleasant surprises (Padres) against perhaps its biggest disappointment. San Diego is doing quite well for itself. They are 22-15 with 97.5% playoff odds. They’ve won 11 of the last 14 and just reaffirmed their contending status by being “buyers” at the trade deadline. As for the Angels, they are down more net units (-17.5) than any other team in baseball and in last place in the AL West (12-24). 

So much focus here will be on Fernando Tatis vs. Mike Trout, but the fact of the matter is the Padres are better everywhere else. Especially when it comes down to starting pitching. Dinelson Lamet gets the baseball on Wednesday for the Padres and he has a 2.35 ERA and 0.939 WHIP through seven starts. His TSR is 5-2 and he got plenty of help from the offense in a 10-3 win over Seattle his last time out. Lamet has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. 

The Angels have two “blowout” wins - 12-5 over Houston and 16-3 over Seattle - over the L7 days. But other than that, they are just 3-13 over the previous 18 games. It would seem difficult to trust Julio Teheran in this spot. While he’s yet to factor into a single decision this year, his ERA (9.94) and WHIP (1.736) speak for themselves. San Diego is the league’s highest scoring team in 2020 as they and the Dodgers are way out in front of the rest in runs scored. They are 8-2 vs. the American League so far, averaging 7.2 runs in those games. 8* San Diego

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): It has been an incredibly frustrating (and disappointing) season thus far in Cincinnati where the Reds are just 15-21 and one of the bigger money burners in either league (tied for 28th in net units). Last night may have (hopefully?) been the nadir as they lost 16-2 at home to St. Louis. But coming off that embarrassing loss, I suspect they’ll be motivated Wednesday. I’ve actually had some good early season luck taking the Reds and they’ll get my endorsement here. 

That yday’s rout came with Sonny Gray on the mound had to be terribly disheartening for Cincinnati. St. Louis scored in seven of the first eight innings, including a six-run first, on their way to a season-high in both runs and hits (23). But by no means was yday indicative of the true measure of these two NL Central clubs. Working against the Cardinals here is that this will be their 23rd game in the last 20 days, a stretch which has seen them have zero days off. Meanwhile, the Reds are 5-1 the L6 times they dropped the first two games of a series.

I like the pitching matchup for Cincy tonight. The Cards likely “used up all their hitting” last night and Tyler Mahle certainly has the capability to do what Gray couldn’t, that being shut St. Louis down. Mahle has a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 in three home starts this year. He also posted a season-high 11 K’s his last time out. St. Louis counters with Johan Oviedo, who has gotten very little run support in his two outings. The Redbirds have scored just two runs total for him and as a result his TSR is 0-2. 10* Cincinnati

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Truthfully, I am not a big fan of either of these teams. But Detroit is clearly playing “over its head” right now as a 5-game win streak has them at a surprising .500 for the year. Over the weekend, they swept the Twins. The entirety of the 5-game win streak has been at home, which is key, because on the road the Tigers are still giving up an average of 6.0 runs per game. Milwaukee is 3-0 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175, which includes yday’s 6-5 win over the Pirates. 

The Brew Crew went into the weekend thinking revenge as they’d been recently swept by the lowly Pirates. Facing them again, this time at home, they took two of three including the aforementioned win yday. There’s been an overnight pitching change as they’ll go with Josh Lindblom rather than Adrian Houser. This will be Lindblom’s seventh start and while he’s yet to record a quality outing, the pitching change has little bearing on this play. This is very much a fade on the Tigers. 

With top hitter Christian Yelich hitting a very disappointing .197, Milwaukee is last in MLB in team batting average. But tonight looks like a matchup where they might break out at the plate as they face Michael Fulmer, who has an 8.79 ERA and 1.953 WHIP in five starts. While Fulmer has not factored into a decision yet in 2020, somehow the Tigers have gone 3-2 in those games. Fulmer has yet to go more than three innings in any start. It’s time to “sell high” on the team that had baseball’s worst record a year ago. 8* Milwaukee

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees came up short against the Rays yet again last night (lost 5-3). They are now 1-7 head to head with Tampa Bay this season. That’s why they are 4.5 games back. But Tuesday should see the Yanks reverse this disturbing trend. Even with the lineup currently depleted, this time is simply too talented to keep losing to the same side, over and over. In particular, timely hitting HAS to improve. They are just 5 for 51 w/ RISP vs. TB this season, including 1 for 25 at home! 

Masahiro Tanaka is 10-5 lifetime vs. Tampa Bay with a 3.33 ERA (20 starts). While he’s yet to go longer than 5 innings in any start this year, Tanaka should come up big in this spot. He threw five shutout innings against the Rays back on 8.7, allowing just one hit. New York lost that game 1-0, but it certainly wasn’t Tanaka’s fault. Tanaka again threw five scoreless innings in his last start, which was at Atlanta. 

There’s no denying that the Rays are red hot right now. They’re on a six-game win streak. But opener Trevor Richards has a poor WHIP and is probably what the doctor ordered for this struggling Yankees’ lineup. This is all about revenge and the fact we’re due to see a course correction in the head to head record between the teams. 10* NY Yankees