8* Run Line Minnesota (2:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Twins +1.5. What a terrible spot this is for the Yankees. They wrapped up their series with the Mets last night (and lost) and now head back home for a one-game series with Minnesota before heading back out to Baltimore. This is obviously a make-up game as the teams were rained out on 8.22. New York had taken the first three games of that series, so it’s a huge break for the Twins to play the final game now, less than 14 hours after the Yankees last played a game. They’ll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

Things were going much better for the Pinstripes back in late August. Their three wins over the Twins were part of a 13-game streak that had the team well-positioned to earn a Wild Card spot. But now they’ve dropped eight of nine overall and the one win was by one run. It was a one-run loss to the Mets Sunday night, thanks to three Francisco Lindor home runs, and that leaves the Yanks one game out of Wild Card position. As for their future prospects, I’m not too keen as they have an inferior run differential compared to the Blue Jays, Red Sox and A’s. On the mound this afternoon will be Luis Gil, making just his fifth career big league start. Gil issued SEVEN walks his last time out in a 6-3 loss to Toronto. 

With Minnesota, you have to remember that this was a team pegged to be a playoff contender at the start of the year. That they are -24.6 units at the betting window is a clear reflection of what a disappointment 2021 has been. Yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Royals leaves them in last place in the AL Central (63-80), but they were just 1 for 8 w/ RISP in that game and should do better in that situation today against Gil. The Twins starter for Monday, John Gant, threw five shutout innings his last time out. That was in Cleveland. The Yankees have scored four runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games and are the lowest scoring contending team in the American League. 8* Run Line Minnesota

10* Over Rockies/Phillies (1:05 ET): I won with the Phillies yesterday. They homered three times en route to a 6-1 victory. The win was much needed for them as they’d dropped the first two games of this series with the Rockies and were starting to fall off the pace in the races for the 2nd NL Wild Card and the NL East pennant. The Phils enter Sunday 2.5 and 3.5 games back in those respective races. Colorado, a non-contender that’s 20-51 on the road, is a team they should obviously beat again. But I like this game’s chances of going Over more than I do Philadelphia winning. 

Aaron Nola has pitched pretty well at home for Philly this season. But he’s also been plagued by inconsistency all throughout 2021. He comes in with a 6.91 ERA over his L3 starts, largely due to a poor effort in Washington on September 2nd where he gave up six runs in four innings. Nola has a 4.57 ERA for the season and each of those last three starts have gone Over. I know that the Rockies typically don’t do much scoring on the road. But they did score 11 runs here on Friday. The Over is 10-4-1 in their L15 games at Philadelphia. Nola has given up five or more runs six different times in 2021. 

Colorado better score plenty of runs today, if they have any hopes of winning. I say this because they probably shouldn’t expect much from starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner will be making just his second career start on Sunday. This is someone who was pitching in Double-A not all that long ago. On the very first pitch of his big-league career, Feltner allowed a home run. He’d go on to allow a total of six runs in 2 ⅔ IP in that start, including three home runs. Something else to consider is that both of these teams have bad bullpens. 10* Over Rockies/Phillies

10* Under Marlins/Braves (7:20 ET): Atlanta is a big favorite on the ML Saturday night and for good reason. They beat the Marlins 6-2 on Friday and have Charlie Morton set to go tonight. Morton is 13-5 this season and is coming off B2B quality starts where he gave up a total of three runs and five hits in 13 IP. Both of those starts came on the road, but fear not - Morton has a 1.128 WHIP at home. His previous two starts against Miami have seen him go six innings and allow two runs on three hits, then seven innings while allowing no runs and two hits. It figures to be another long night at the plate for a Miami team that struck out 17 times on Friday. 

But with the ML being so high, we’re forced to scramble for other options here. I like the Under here as the Braves scored five of their six runs in one inning yesterday. They’ve struck out 10 or more times in three straight games. Miami has struck out 10+ times in six of their last eight games, so there’s been a lot of “swinging and missing” from these teams of late. Atlanta probably is a bit lucky to have scored 13 runs in their last two games on 17 hits. Elieser Hernandez, who starts today for Miami, has 1.67 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Braves. 

Hernandez normally doesn’t go more than five innings, but it’s worth noting that he’s given up more than ER only once in six tries this year. The Under has hit three of the last four times he has started. I still expect the home team to win today (obviously) and given that feeling, it is very likely we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That’s always a boon when holding an Under ticket and with Miami scoring three runs or fewer in eight of its last 10 games, this figures to be another low-scoring contest. The Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ L5 games where they’d given up 5+ runs in the previous game. 10* Under Marlins/Braves

6* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): It wasn’t that long ago that I was looking to fade the Phillies. My 10* Game of the Month for September was on the opposite side of them Tuesday, with the Brewers, and that was a 10-0 win for me. Philadelphia hasn’t won since. The losing skid has now hit four games as they not only lost again in Milwaukee Wednesday, but have also dropped two in a row here at home to Colorado. There’s never a good time to be on a losing streak, but this one in particular is ill-timed for the Phils as they’ve fallen 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 4.5 games back of the division lead.

But with Zack Wheeler on the bump Saturday, look for Philly to get back on track. I learned my lesson with Wheeler on Monday when I tried fading him vs. Milwaukee. That one did NOT work out for me as Wheeler led a shocking 12-0 win. That’s the last time the Phillies won. Wheeler had been struggling a bit heading into that start in Milwaukee (part of the reason I faded him), but he bounced back with a marvelous effort of six scoreless innings. That marked the 8th time in 2021 that Wheeler went at least six innings and didn’t give up a run. No NL pitcher has done that more times. Wheeler also has a 2.49 ERA and 0.857 WHIP at home this season. 

Everyone knows how bad Colorado is on the road. They had just 18 road wins all year coming into this series. So it’s always a shock to see them win two in a row away from Coors Field. Only Arizona has fewer road wins this season. Thursday saw the Rockies win the game in the ninth inning (4-3) and then Friday was a total aberration (11-2). The Rockies score just 3.4 rpg on the road (hitting .214), so this figures to be another dominant Wheeler start as Colorado’s hitters predictably regress back to “normal levels.” The Rockies starter for this game is Kyle Freeland and he really struggled last time out, giving up seven runs and four homers in a 10-5 loss to the Giants. 6* Philadelphia

7* Oakland (9:40 ET): Texas has matched a season-high with four straight wins - all of them coming on the road. Prior to the current streak, they’d never won more than three in a row away from home at any point this season. There had only been a pair of three-game road win streaks and both took place before Memorial Day, one in early May against Minnesota and one in April at Tampa Bay. After beating the Angels twice, the Rangers then swept a pair of games at Arizona (who has the worst record in all of baseball). However, I just can’t see this streak continuing as Texas is still 20-51 on the road in 2021. 

Now Oakland has had its share of problems with Texas this season. The A’s are just 9-7 in the head to head series, but they did sweep a three-game series the last time the Rangers visited. Given where Oakland is in the standings, you’d think they would have had more success against the last place team in their division. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now. Trailing by two games in the Wild Card race, the A’s need more wins in a hurry. I think this weekend offers up an excellent opportunity to make up ground. They are already coming off B2B wins, here at home, over the White Sox. 

Having a day off has been no advantage for the Rangers as they are just 4-16 in that situation this season. Oakland is 9-3 as a home favorite of -175 to -250, so this really is a game they should win. The L2 days really were a step in the right direction as they held the White Sox to two runs. I like Paul Blackburn being the one to toe the rubber tonight as he’s allowed just two runs in 10 ⅔ IP in two home starts. It’s also a small sample size with Rangers’ starter Glenn Otto, who will be making just his third start of 2021. In the end, I just can’t see a Texas team that ranks 28th or lower in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS winning a fifth straight road game. 7* Oakland

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Minnesota has clearly been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. That’s verified by the fact they are -23.4 units, making them one of the top four money-burning teams. But this series has gone well for the Twins. They’ve come in and won the first three games in Cleveland, the last two being a pair of 3-0 shutouts. It’s the first time in over two years that the team has won B2B games in shutout fashion. They’ve also matched a season-high with four straight road wins. But sweeping a four-game series on the road is hard to do and I don’t see that happening here. 

Prior to being shutout each of the last two days, Cleveland had homered in 20 consecutive games, which was the longest such streak in franchise history. Losing five of their last six games has effectively ended whatever faint playoff hopes the Indians still had left. But I’m a big believer today because of Cal Quantrill, who has pitched much better than his 6-12 team start record would seem to indicate. His last time out was the first time he dropped a decision going back to June 6th. He’d previously gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA over a 15-start stretch where he’d allowed 3 ER or less 13 times. Seven of Quantrill’s eight quality starts have come here at Progressive Field. 

Twins’ starter Randy Dobnak has had the Indians’ number in the past. His best start of 2021 came against them back on May 21st. But that’s also his ONLY win of the season! Following a near three-month absence (due to a finger injury), Dobnak returned to the mound last week and gave up five runs in a loss at Tampa Bay. He has a 6.29 ERA in six starts. Quantrill, unbeaten in 11 home starts with a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, is the better pitcher in this matchup and I believe all signs point to Cleveland avoiding the sweep. 10* Cleveland

10* Oakland (9:40 ET): When the A’s faced the White Sox last month, they lost the first three games of the series before avoiding a sweep with a 5-4 win in the series finale. That was in Chicago. They hope it doesn’t get to that point again here at home. It was a 6-3 loss yesterday to Chicago in the opener of a three-game set. The A’s have now lost four in a row (were swept in Toronto over the weekend) and have fallen 3.5 games back of the Wild Card. But with what looks to be a tremendous advantage in today’s starting pitching matchup, I’ll say Oakland won’t have to wait until the final game of this series to defeat the White Sox. 

The White Sox do lead their division by 11 games, matching the biggest edge for any first place team in the sport. But they are just a .500 proposition on the road (34-34) including 1-4 as a ML dog of +125 to +175. Note that they were NOT in that same price range for Tuesday’s game. A shockingly solid effort on the mound from rookie Jimmy Lambert is what keyed yesterday’s win. But it’s tough to imagine Chicago will get the same kind of pitching performance here from Dallas Keuchel, who has been just brutal of late. Over his last three starts, Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.111 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more runs in each of those three starts. 

The A’s will counter with Frankie Montas as they desperately look for a win this evening. Montas is working on extended rest here as he couldn’t pitch in the Toronto series due to visa issues. Considering how Montas has been pitching, the team has to be thrilled to have him on the mound Wednesday. They were 8-6 winners over Detroit the last time he pitched with Montas allowing just three runs and five hits in 6 ⅔ IP. Prior to that, he’d not given up a single run in 14 IP. There’s been only one start since the beginning of June where Montas allowed more than 3 ER. It’s a major edge with him opposing Keuchel. 10* Oakland

8* Arizona (3:40 ET): There’s an inherent risk when playing a bad team and that came back to bite me yesterday when I lost with the D’backs. However, I still strongly believe in everything I said in that analysis and will come back with the home team again today. Hosting Texas is one of the few times one can call a matchup “favorable” for Arizona. While the Rangers have matched a season-high with three consecutive road wins, they are just 19-51 away from home for the season. An offense that ranks 28th or lower in batting average, OBP, slugging & OPS now loses the DH and thus becomes even weaker. 

The Rangers only scored three runs last night, so my comments regarding the disadvantage they face in a NL park ring true. They got all three runs in one inning. Besides that one inning, they had just one hit the entire game. The key to the win were shocking efforts on the mound from Spencer Howard (who opened) and then Jordan Lyles, who came in having allowed the most hits and home runs of any American League pitcher this season. I just can’t envision a similar effort from today’s starter Kohei Arihara, who returned from injury last week. In each of his final three starts before getting hurt, Arihara allowed 5+ runs. 

Arizona starter Luke Weaver also made a return from injury last week. Unlike Arihara, he was victorious. He allowed just one run and four hits in six innings as the D’backs beat the Padres 8-3. In five starts at home this year, Weaver has a 1.32 ERA and 0.805 WHIP. He’s allowed a combined one run and nine hits the last three times he’s pitched. As mentioned above, Texas has not won more than three straight on the road all season. A four-game win streak, which is what they are going for this afternoon, would match a season-high. They are 1-6 when off three straight wins (of any kind) in 2021. 8* Arizona

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Endorsements of the D’backs have obviously been few and far between in 2021. But facing the Rangers at home is one of the few times they actually have a distinct advantage. Texas is every bit as bad as Arizona is, when it comes to playing on the road. There are three teams in MLB that have hideous road records and these are definitely two of them (Colorado is the other). The Rangers are 18-51 away from home while the D’backs are 17-52. This game is in Arizona, which also means that an already weak-hitting Texas lineup loses its designated hitter. Yes, Arizona is the right side here. 

Here’s another edge for the D’backs today: they were off Monday. Now, after dropping eight of their last nine, they needed the off day. Especially on the heels of three very tough losses to Seattle here at home, two of which were decided in extra innings. Zac Gallen, who has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 ERA his L3 starts, will toe the rubber on Tuesday. He’s allowed just five runs, two unearned, and 11 hits in 18 IP. As alluded to earlier, the Rangers are very weak offensively. They rank 28th (third worst) or lower in team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. Now you take away the DH from the already weak lineup. 

Texas was a winner yesterday, 4-0, as they ended up earning a split of a four-game series in Los Angeles. Prior to winning each of the last two days, the Rangers had even fewer road wins than the D’backs this season. I just can’t see a third straight win away from home. This is the first time since early May that Texas can say it’s won back to back road games. There have been only a pair of three-game win streaks on the road for them this season. Both times, all three wins came against the same opponent. Tonight’s starter Spencer Howard is still winless this season and has been terrible in the last three with a 9.82 ERA and 1.774 WHIP. 8* Arizona

10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): What was supposed to be a pitchers duel between Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff instead turned into a one-sided massacre as the Phillies crushed the Brewers 12-0 Monday afternoon. That was the Brew Crew’s fifth loss against the Phils in 2021 and they have zero wins against them. Certainly there’s no reason to panic in Milwaukee as the team still holds an 11-game lead in the NL Central. That’s the largest division lead in all of MLB. But they’d certainly love a win over the Phillies. I think they’re gonna get it tonight!

Philadelphia came into this series having dropped two of three in Miami over the weekend. They remain firmly in the races for the NL East (1.5 games back) and Wild Card (2 games back). But a losing record on the road and a negative YTD run differential have me skeptical of their future. They hit SIX home runs yesterday, including a grand slam in the 8th inning that broke the game open. All but one of their 12 runs was via the HR. I don’t think that the long ball is going to be as big of a factor today as Brewers’ starter Eric Lauer has not given up a HR at American Family Field since June 1st. He’s coming off an impressive effort last Thursday in San Francisco where he allowed only one run and three hits in seven innings. 

Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola has never lost to the Brewers in seven career starts. That includes a win back in May. But there’s a first time for everything and Nola is off a terrible start in which he allowed six runs to the Washington Nationals last week. He also owns a 5.37 ERA in 12 September starts going back to 2019. I realize Milwaukee doesn’t have the best record coming off a shutout loss this season and they have more wins on the road than at home. But there’s a sense of pride that kicks in after a loss like yesterday’s. Look for a strong answer from the Brew Crew on Tuesday. 10* Milwaukee

8* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): I’m travelling this weekend and will actually be at this game. On paper, it looks like a tantalizing matchup of starting pitchers with Zack Wheeler set to oppose Brandon Woodruff. But I am favoring Woodruff and the Brew Crew on Monday for several reasons. First off, they have revenge. Milwaukee got swept by Philadelphia back in early May. The Brewers were a much different team then. They are 30 games over .500 since Memorial Day Weekend and are poised to easily win the NL Central.

Secondly, Woodruff has simply been better than Wheeler, especially of late. The Phillies’ starter has a 6.53 ERA his L3 starts. He’s given up a total of 21 runs the L4 starts. Wheeler was bailed out by his offense his last time out in a win over the last place Nationals. But he can’t count on a ton of run support tonight as Woodruff owns a 2.08 ERA at home. In 26 starts this season, he has a 2.35 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. The fact he’s not even the top pitcher in starting rotation (Burnes is) speaks volumes. 

The Brewers have also been awesome in day games this season, going 38-18. The Phillies are below .500 on the road after dropping two of three at Miami over the weekend. Milwaukee comes in hot as well. They’ve won six of eight including each of the last two days. They are the superior ballclub compared to Philly, so I just can’t see them losing to them again. Woodruff is working on five days rest here, a situation where he’s been at his best, not just in 2021 but throughout his career. 8* Milwaukee

10* Run Line Toronto (1:05 ET): First off, this is a run line where I am backing the Blue Jays at +1.5. My view of this team has been pretty well-documented at this point. Considering they have outscored their opponents by 128 runs this season (6th best differential in MLB!), it’s very fair to say the team is better than its 73-62 record. They are coming off a three-game sweep of Oakland over the weekend (I had them both Friday and Saturday) but still four games back of the Wild Card and need to pass two teams.

One of the teams ahead of the Jays in the WC race is the Yankees. The Pinstripes currently hold the 1st WC spot, so the Jays don’t necessarily have to pass them. But winning this series is pretty imperative when it comes to narrowing the gap between them and the Red Sox. Also, a Seattle team that has totally overachieved in 2021 is playing Houston this week and will be a big dog in every game. So a successful series here would likely allow Toronto to catch, or even pass, the Mariners. The Blue Jays have legit revenge coming into Monday as they were swept by the Yanks the last time they faced them (back in June). 

I love the idea of getting an additional run and a half with Toronto. This team is rarely a ML dog. It’s happened only ONCE since the start of August! They’ll send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound Monday. He has a 2.50 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Yankees this season and this is only the second time all year Ryu is off B2B losses. The Blue Jays scored 29 runs in the last three games, so I look for another big day at the plate here against Jameson Taillon, who has allowed a total of 11 ER his L2 starts. The Jays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

10* Run Line Atlanta (3:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Braves -1.5. Yes, I know that the first three games of this series have all been decided by one run and Colorado has won two of them. Plus, the Rockies are a lot tougher at home (45-23) than they are on the road (18-50). But this Braves team is poised to win the NL East for the fourth year in a row in my eyes. They are the lone team in their division with a positive run differential (+87). But having lost two in a row, their lead is still just two games over the Phillies (who have also lost B2B games). A win Sunday would be huge and I think they prevail by at least two runs. 

Charlie Morton will get the starting nod today for Atlanta. He’s been very good of late, in particular his last time out when he held the Dodgers to one run and three hits over six innings. Sadly, the Braves didn’t get the win in that one (they lost 3-2), but it was the 9th time in his L10 starts that Morton allowed 3 ER or less. He’s gone at least six innings while allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six outings. Morton is a veteran so I don’t see him being fazed by the unique elements of Coors Field. He’s pitched here many times before. 

Colorado made a pitching change for today, because of injury, going with Ryan Feltner instead of Austin Gomber. This will be Feltner’s big league debut, so it’s the home pitcher that will be at a bigger disadvantage today with Coors Field. A Rockies’ bullpen that has an ERA over 5.00 will likely be pressed into duty, which isn’t good for them. I know Atlanta has played five straight one-run games, but today will break the trend as they pick up a much-needed win. 10* Run Line Atlanta (-1.5)

9* Toronto (3:07 ET): I’m going to continue to ride the Blue Jays. If they end up making a run to the playoffs, then circle last night’s win as the potential catalyst. They came from behind three different times to defeat the A’s 11-10. Marcus Semien won the game in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run HR. While Toronto is still five games back of the Wild Card and needs to pass three teams, they have a run differential of +118 that is vastly superior to the other clubs they are competing against for the WC. 

While I was repulsed by Seattle again winning by one run last night, it was quite refreshing to see Toronto do the same. The Blue Jays have struggled in close games this season, which is why they are a game back of a Mariners team that has a -55 run differential. But the worm has started to turn a bit when it comes to the Jays and close games. Four of their last five wins have been by one run margins. I take this as a sign of positive regression and reason NOT to give up on their playoff chances. 

I look forward to a big Toronto win this afternoon. They enter Saturday now two games back of Oakland. This weekend is huge for the Jays’ playoff prospects. They’ll send Jose Berrios to the bump this afternoon as he looks to replicate his most recent outing where he held the Tigers to just one unearned run over seven innings. Berrios had 11 strikeouts, his most since his first start of the season, in the win. After scoring nine runs in the final two innings last night, the Jays have to be “flying high.” They’ll do damage against A’s starter Paul Blackburn. 9* Toronto

9* Under Rangers/Angels (9:40 ET): On paper, this is a game the Angels SHOULD win. They have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. They are facing a Rangers team that is an atrocious 16-49 on the road, including 5-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250. Conversely, the Angels are 9-1 as home favorites this year in the -175 to -250 price range. The Halos also just took two of three from a Yankees team that had been as hot as any team in baseball. But I’m not confident in the home team scoring many runs in this game. Thus, Under is the right play in this series opener. 

The Angels currently sit two games below .500 and are fourth in the AL West. There’s really no realistic path towards the playoffs. But at least they can relish the fact they have Ohtani on their roster. The two-way star did surprisingly struggle his last time out, giving up three homers and four runs in a loss to Baltimore. But prior to that one bad outing, he’d gone 5-0 his previous six starts, allowing only seven runs in 40 IP. Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League and Ohtani is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against them. There have been only four times this season where Ohtani allowed more than 2 ER. None of them came consecutively. So he’ll bounce back tonight. 

 The Angels are hitting only .214 the last seven games, so they have their issues at the plate as well. Tonight they’ll be facing Glenn Otto, who in his big league debut last Friday held Houston (highest scoring team in baseball) to just two hits in five innings. Otto didn’t allow a run or walk and had seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Rangers ended up losing 5-4, but for Otto it was a very strong effort. When these teams met in Arlington last month, three of the four games saw five or fewer total runs scored. 9* Under Rangers/Angels

10* Under Braves/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams opened up a four-game series last night. Early on, it looked to be the typical high-scoring game at Coors Field. After the top of the fifth, the Braves led 6-5. But then the scoring halted and 6-5 was how the game ended. It was a critical win for Atlanta, whose lead in the NL East is down to two games over the surging Phillies. While the Rockies are terrible on the road (18-50 record), they are a team to be taken seriously at home where they’ve gone 43-23 this year. So I’m not going to make a play on the ML here. I think another (relatively) low-scoring game is on tap. Take the Under. 

I do think the Braves will end up winning their division. My confidence stems from the fact they are currently the only team in the NL East with a positive YTD run differential. It’s not like they are barely “in the black” either. They have scored 89 more runs than they’ve allowed. They give up only 3.8 runs per game on the road and have to feel pretty good about their chances here due to a 17-5 record this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (42-14 L3 seasons). Plus they have Huascar Ynoa on the bump and he’s got a 2.06 ERA and 0.866 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which stayed Under. 

Ynoa has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. But what has me on the Under rather than the Braves here is the fact Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela has also been pitching lights out of late. He has a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts after an incredible outing on Sunday where he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Dodgers. He retired the first 12 batters he faced.  It was the fourth straight quality start for Senzatela, who has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. None of Atlanta’s last 12 games have seen more than 11 total runs scored (Under is 9-1-2). The Rockies are 6-1 Under their L7 games. 10* Under Braves/Rockies

8* Toronto (7:07 ET): I’m sticking with the Blue Jays as they begin a critical three-game series with the A’s on Friday. As we’ve been through numerous times before, Toronto has drastically underperformed in terms of wins when you look at their +117 run differential (7th best in MLB). Based on that run differential, they’d be expected to have 79 wins on the season and be firmly in control of the AL Wild Card race. But they only have 70 wins and would need to pass three teams to get into the postseason. One of the three is Oakland, who did win yesterday afternoon (8-6 at Detroit) but is just 6-11 in its last 17 games. 

When measuring actual vs. expected win total, no team has underperformed more than Toronto this season. But this series opener looks to be a favorable matchup. Not only did Oakland play yesterday (while Toronto had the day off), the A’s were forced to call upon the bullpen more than they would have liked. Things were looking good with an early 8-0 lead, but then things got dicey as the Tigers got within two runs. Starting tonight for the A’s will be Sean Manaea, who has an 0-3 TSR and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. Manaea has allowed seven home runs during that time. 

So I think Toronto’s offense, which has been less productive in recent weeks, is set to get back on track. Let’s not forget that after a nomadic season that saw them play most of their “home games” in either Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY, the Jays are now back in Toronto. Rookie Alek Manoah has a 5-1 TSR in home starts this season with 1.84 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Last time here, he held the White Sox to one run over six innings, a game the Jays won 2-1. Manoah followed that by holding Detroit to two runs on four hits in 6+ IP, another win for the team. C’mon Toronto, I’m not ready to give up on you yet! 8* Toronto

10* San Francisco (3:45 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn in the NL West. After leading the division for all of June, July & August, the Giants have slipped to second place, thanks to matching their longest losing streak of the season (four games). The last three losses have all come here at home to Milwaukee, a team that is definitely going to win its division (NL Central) and could be a potential playoff opponent. But I just can’t see the Giants being swept in a four-game series at home and apparently neither can bettors as this line has been bet up rather swiftly. Thursday’s starter looks like the right guy for the job. 

That starter is Logan Webb. Not only has Webb not dropped a decision since losing May 5th at Coors Field, he has a perfect 8-0 team start record at home this season. Over his last 13 starts, Webb is 7-0 with a 1.47 ERA. He has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those L13 starts. He last pitched on Saturday and threw seven shutout innings of five-hit ball in Atlanta. That happens to be the Giants’ lone win in their L6 games. When he faced Milwaukee on the road last month, Webb allowed just one run and three in six innings. He has 1.75 ERA at home for the year. 

There’s no denying that Milwaukee is also an excellent team, particularly on the road. But remember that they did just drop two of three in Minnesota over the weekend. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty tough to do, especially when the opponent is as good as the Giants. Eric Lauer, a southpaw with plenty of experience pitching here in San Francisco, will start today for the Brew Crew. The problem with the former Padre is that he hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his L5 starts. That’s an even bigger problem now with Milwaukee having to use six relievers yesterday because of an injury to starter Brett Anderson. 10* San Francisco

8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals, like the Nationals, are another team hoping to avenge a prior sweep. They lost all three games in Cleveland back in early July. Their first attempt at revenge was unsuccessful as they went down 7-2 last night here at home. It was actually the Royals’ ninth straight time losing to the Tribe, a streak that goes all the way back to April. The Royals came into this series pretty hot, having won 10 of 14, while Cleveland was a real lucky winner on Sunday. Time for revenge to be exacted. 

The difference last night was Cleveland’s Amed Rosario becoming the first player in MLB history to go 5 for 5 with five RBIs while hitting an inside the park and traditional home run. That incredible individual effort came on the heels of a miraculous team rally on Sunday where the Indians, down 5-0 entering the sixth inning, ended up beating the Red Sox 7-5. They didn’t even have a hit in that game until the sixth. There is a chance the Indians may have to use a catcher from single-A for this game. 

Both teams have been toying around with their rotations. Logan Allen, who is having a terrible year, will start tonight for Cleveland. Allen has not recorded a win since April and the team is 1-7 when he starts. He’s made only three starts since April and the Indians have lost all of them. Kansas City has recalled Jackson Kowar from Triple-A Omaha to start here. This is only his third big league start. Despite the inexperience on the mound, the Royals still should win this game as they are certainly overdue to beat the Indians. Over the last month, they have been the better team. Salvador Perez had homered in five straight games going into yesterday. 8* Kansas City

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Blue Jays -1.5. From Toronto’s perspective, last night’s 4-2 loss to the Orioles is completely unacceptable. They are in the midst of a five-team race for the Wild Card and need to make up 4.5 games while passing at least three teams. I continue to believe the Jays are so much better than their record. They have the 7th best run differential in the sport, a far more impressive number than the teams they are competing against for the Wild Card. They simply cannot afford a second straight loss to the team with the worst record in all of baseball. 

Baltimore is 3-4 over its last seven games. That’s after losing 19 in a row where all but one of the defeats came by multiple runs. We’ve got a real mismatch with the two starting pitchers today. Matt Harvey has lost four straight starts for the Orioles and has a 6.18 ERA for the year. Toronto’s Steven Matz has a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his L3 starts, sadly two of which Toronto has lost. But Matz shouldn’t have any issues today facing a lineup that hits just .223 at home. Like his team, he’s certainly due for a big win on Wednesday. 

The Blue Jays have the run differential of a 78-win team. They should be leading the Wild Card race. Instead, they are only 69-62 with the ignominious distinction of being baseball’s biggest underachiever (in terms of actual vs. expected wins). But they still have eight games left vs. the Orioles (including tonight), which should give them an opportunity to make up ground in the WC hunt. They average 1.6 rpg more than Baltimore while also allowing 1.1 rpg less. Matz is due for a win and the Blue Jays should easily win this game. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Houston (4:10 ET): As I’ve said numerous times before, Seattle is a team totally undeserving of its record. They have been outscored by 57 runs this season, which makes their 71-62 record pretty hard to fathom. Based on their run differential, the Mariners would have an “expected” win total of 60, an 11-game difference from their actual win total. No other team in MLB has exceeded their expected win total by more than five games. The Mariners beat the Astros 4-0 last night, thanks to an eighth inning grand slam from Abraham Toro. Par for the course for a team that has 27 one-run wins and is 11-5 in games decided in extra innings. 

I didn’t fade the Mariners last night. But I did Monday when they lost 4-3 and got a taste of their own medicine. In that game, Houston rallied late for two runs in the eighth. This Astros team is the best in the American League in my eyes. They’ve got a +173 YTD run differential and have won five of their last seven games. They’ve got a history of bouncing back from shutout losses. Yesterday was just the fifth time it's happened in 2021. They are 3-1 off their previous four and 10-4 in this situation the L3 seasons. A 37-18 record vs. the rest of the division tells me a bounce back is quite likely this afternoon. 

Seattle has a losing record this year when off a shutout victory. Logan Gilbert, their starter for today, has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts. Over the last three, Gilbert has posted a 13.50 ERA and 2.131 WHIP. He was rocked by the Astros for nine runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced them on August 21st. That ended up being a 15-1 final. Jake Odorizzi started that game for Houston and will again oppose Gilbert today. Odorizzi is now looking for a third straight win after holding Texas to two runs in a 5-4 win last Friday. Houston is SO MUCH better than Seattle and this line is LOW. 10* Houston

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Twins played yesterday, in Detroit, and won 3-2. It was a make-up game and I thought it was a pretty favorable matchup for the road team, which is why I took them. As I predicted, Minnesota got a great outing from Bailey Ober. Now starting a new series right after a make-up game may seem like a difficult situation. But the Twins are back at home and set to play the moribund Cubs, who have lost 24 of their last 31 games. The last time we saw the Cubs, they lost 13-1 to the White Sox on Sunday. That was the eighth time this month - and third time in the last four games - that they allowed double digit runs. 

Now they are in an American League park where the pitching staff must deal with a DH. Of course, that was also the case over the weekend when they faced their cross-town rivals. In the two losses to the White Sox, Cubs pitching surrendered 30 runs. That’s just hideous. I expect tonight’s starter Zach Davies to struggle considering he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.485 WHIP this season. The team is 4-8 in Davies’ 12 road starts. They are also 4-16 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 

While the Twins are a last place team, it’s important to note that they’ve been priced as a 71-win team (that’s how many games they’ve been favored in). The two-time defending AL Central Champs have definitely been one of the bigger disappointments in baseball this year, but that doesn’t mean they can’t finish strong. Over the last month, they’ve won series against Houston, the White Sox, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. All of those teams are current division leaders! Tuesday starter John Gant is familiar with the Cubs from his time in St. Louis. Look for him to earn his first ‘W’ in nearly three months. 8* Minnesota

9* Washington (7:05 ET): So my play on the Nationals +1.5 didn’t work out last night. They dug themselves too deep of an early hole. It was 3-0 after the top of the 1st. The Nats were able to climb back within a run after the 2nd, but another three-run from the Phillies (top of the 3rd) pretty much sealed the game. It was a poor effort from starter Josiah Gray, who saw a streak of three consecutive quality starts snapped. But Washington should get a better outing from Patrick Corbin tonight. I know that Corbin has struggled for much of 2021, but I think he and his team are due. The Nats have lost five straight home games to the Phillies. That can't continue. 

As I discussed in yesterday’s analysis, the Phillies aren’t exactly a good road team. They are below .500 for the year away from home (28-36). Yesterday, I took a chance in a game where they were heavily favored. It was their first win as a road favorite of -175 or higher in the last three seasons. Now there have only been five occasions in the L3 seasons where they’ve been favored by that much. But they were previously 0-2 in that role in 2021. Notable is that they aren’t getting that same kind of respect from the oddsmakers tonight. 

That probably has to do with Matt Moore being on the mound. The Phillies’ southpaw hasn’t been great this year. Somehow he does have a 5-0 TSR on the road despite not factoring into the decisions. He has a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in those five road starts, so he’s certainly not deserving of his record. Moore also has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Washington this season. The last time Moore pitched, the Phillies lost at home to Arizona. Like the Cardinals (another team I’m fading today), the Phillies have a negative YTD run differential despite a winning record. 9* Washington

8* Houston (10:10 ET): A quick glance at the AL West standings reveals that the Astros have a comfortable 7.5 game lead over the Mariners. But that lead should be so much greater. I say that based on the fact Houston has outscored its opponents by 176 runs this season, the second best differential in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Seattle has actually been outscored by 60 runs. Based on the respective run differentials of the teams, you’d expect Houston to have a 24.5 game lead! I think they work on rectifying this massive discrepancy with a win on Monday. 

Despite losing 13-2 at Texas yesterday, the Astros are well on their way to another playoff berth. I’ve got them rated as the second best team in baseball right now. They’d won four straight before yesterday’s debacle and are the highest scoring team in the league on the road at 5.5 runs per game. They should do damage here against Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen, who is 0-3 all-time vs. the Astros with a 9.64 ERA. Flexen allowed seven runs the last time he faced them. 

The last game between these teams took place on August 22nd and saw Seattle win 6-3 in extra innings. Typical win for the Mariners, who have lived off one-run and extra inning victories all season long. But prior to that win, Houston had scored eight or more runs in five consecutive games vs. Mariners pitching, including wins of 12-3 and 15-1 in the last series. Luis Garcia has a 4-0 TSR in his last four starts for the Astros while allowing just 5 runs in 22 ⅔ IP. The Astros are simply the better team here. 8* Houston

8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals +1.5. Back at the start of the month, the Phillies came here to the Nation’s Capital and took all four games from the Nats. At that time, the Phillies were the hottest team in all of baseball. They’d end up winning eight in a row and were briefly in first place in the NL East. But this team is not that good and has long since ceded control of the division to Atlanta. It was a successful weekend in Philly (took three of four from the lousy D’backs), but they are 0-2 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher (0-4 L3 seasons). I look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. 

In that last series between Philadelphia & Washington, two of the four games were decided by one run. Another of the games saw the Nationals give up five runs in the ninth and lose by two. So it was a competitive series. I know this is a bit of a “lost season” for the Nats, but there is reason for optimism as three players acquired in the Max Scherzer trade will make their big league debuts today. Starter Josiah Gray also came over in that trade and he’s had a solid August which includes three straight quality starts. 

Zach Wheeler has struggled recently for the Phillies, posting a 6.53 ERA in his L3 starts. He’s lost all three as a favorite. His last road start came against lowly Arizona and he allowed six runs. Wheeler has given up four runs or more in six of his previous nine outings. The Nationals should certainly be familiar with him by this point as this will be their sixth time facing him in 2021. Wheeler’s ERA in the previous five starts is 4.11 and he’s just 7-14 all-time vs. Washington (4.53 ERA). The Phillies are only 27-36 on the road this year, so being able to get an extra 1.5 runs and fade them, at this price, is a good deal. 8* Run Line Washington

10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): These AL Central rivals got real familiar with each other in July. They played 10 times last month. Minnesota got things going with a four-game sweep at home, right before the All-Star Break. But then right after the Break, Detroit returned the favor by sweeping three games in the Motor City. The Tigers then took two of three in the Twin Cities, including a wild 17-14 win, the last time they played. Although they both lost on Sunday, the Tigers and Twins have put together winning records in August. This is a make-up game and I think the road team is likely to take it. 

Taking two of three from Milwaukee over the weekend was impressive for the Twins. I faded them yesterday, a good call, but that had to do with the fact I simply could not see them sweeping the Brew Crew. Beating the Tigers sounds a lot simpler, especially with Bailey Ober on the mound. Ober has been really solid of late, allowing only three runs (one of them unearned) in his last three starts. I know that it hasn’t translated into many wins, but Ober has definitely pitched better than his WL record indicates. The Tigers’ offense has scored just seven runs in its last four games. 

The Tigers played three low-scoring games with the Blue Jays over the weekend and lost two of them. Incredibly, the team’s last eight games have all stayed Under. In 8 of their last 12 games, the Tigers have not scored more than two runs. That puts incredible pressure on starter Casey Mize here. Mize did win his last time out, but has a 6.89 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. He’s also allowed 22 home runs this season. The Twins are 9-3 off their previous 12 losses. It’s telling that they’ve been bet to the role of favorite here. 10* Minnesota

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): For the first time since the All-Star Break, the Brewers have lost three in a row. The last two losses have come here in Minnesota. The Twins are not a team that the Brew Crew should be losing to, as few teams have disappointed more in 2021. At the betting window, Minnesota is down 24.5 units. Only Arizona and Baltimore, the teams with the worst records in each league, have been bigger money-burners. The Twins are last in the AL Central and have not swept a series since before the Break. 

Milwaukee looks to avoid the sweep today behind Aaron Ashby. This will be just the fourth career start for Ashby and his first in more than two weeks. While his ERA and WHIP in the previous three are 5.40/1.799, the Brewers have managed to go a perfect 3-0 when he’s on the bump. The poor numbers are all because his first start saw him give up seven runs - three of them unearned - to the Cubs in two-thirds of an inning. That was back in June. Ashby hasn’t allowed any runs in two August starts, though admittedly those spanned only six innings. 

While Ashby may have struggled in his big league debut, he wasn’t as bad as Griffin Jax was his last time out for the Twins. Jax allowed three homers and nine runs in Boston on Tuesday. That raised his ERA to 5.75 in nine starts. Milwaukee has the best road record in all of baseball (42-23) and I just cannot see them getting swept this weekend. Their offense usually improves on the road (5.0 rpg) and here they get to use a DH. The Brewers’ 36-18 record in day games is also among MLB’s best. They’ve had only two losing streaks of longer than three games all year, a five-game skid in June and six-game skid in May. A good bet to bounce back Sunday. 10* Milwaukee

8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox look to make it a three-game sweep here in Cleveland. The first two games have been close, both of them decided by three-run homers from different Red Sox hitters. Jonathan Arauz was the hero in Friday’s 4-3 win, a game where Boston had only one hit through seven innings. Yesterday’s game went 10 innings and saw J.D. Martinez win the game. Boston can’t afford to let up; not with a slim 3.5 game advantage in the Wild Card race. These are the games Cleveland typically loses; they are 3-12 this season as home underdog of +125 to +175. 

The Indians are back below .500, which is not a surprise as they made their future intentions clear at the trade deadline. The inconsistent Eli Morgan will start Sunday’s game for them. Morgan has not fared well so far at Progressive Field where his ERA is 7.67 and WHIP is 1.61. He’s 1-5 here in seven starts. Last time out, Morgan only made it through 4 ⅓ innings and he gave up four runs. That was against a terrible Texas team that is last in the AL in runs scored. Boston is 4th overall in MLB in runs scored. 

Tanner Houck may still have yet to record a win for the Red Sox, but he seems to have solidified his spot in the starting rotation. He has a very impressive 47-7 KW ratio as he’s struck out six or more hitters in five of his last six starts. 8* Boston

10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins have not beaten the Reds this season. They are 0-5 against them, losing 6-0 last night and were swept in Cincinnati last week. They are 1-11 head to head with the Reds since the start of the 2019 season. So it’s not been a favorable matchup for the Fish. But with Sandy Alcantara on the bump Saturday, I think they’re about to turn the tide. While Alacantara’s won-loss record won’t scare anybody, he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.927 WHIP at home. He’s pitched much better than his record this year.

Cincinnati is trying to hold on to the second Wild Card in the National League. They’ve won six of eight, five of those victories coming against the Marlins obviously. I’m not convinced that the Reds are going to be able to finish in front of the Padres, the team they are competing with for that second Wild Card. I say that because of a pitching staff that has given up the fifth most runs in the Senior Circuit. It will be Vladimir Gutierrez starting on Saturday. He’s been good, but he’s a rookie and it’s getting late in the year. Innings have been piling up. 

Gutierrez and Alcantara opposed each other last Sunday and we obviously know who got the better of it. But Alcantara pitched well, save for the two solo homers he gave up. Those were his only runs allowed over seven innings and he gave up just two other hits. He also had a season-high 11 strikeouts.Over his L3 starts, Alcantara has a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He really deserves a win this evening as does a Miami team that’s played better than its record in 2021. They are due to beat the Reds. 10* Miami

8* Under Royals/Mariners (4:10 ET): Kansas City has hit a grand slam in three consecutive games. It’s only the fifth time since 1895 that a team has done that and last year’s Padres are the only team in MLB history to do it four straight games. As small as the odds were that the Royals would do it again yesterday, they are even smaller now. The last two grand slams have come from catcher Salvador Perez and under normal circumstances he might not even play today (day game after a night game). He’ll likely lobby to get in the lineup, but don’t expect another grand slam. I’m taking the Under today.

If you’ve been following my analysis this season, then you know it pleased me some to see the Mariners lose by one run in extra innings last night. This is a team that’s grossly overachieved this season. They are 69-60, but have a -59 run differential. A team with that run differential you’d expect to have a 58-71 record.The key has been a 26-15 record in one-run games and an 11-5 record in extra innings. But they got a “taste of their own medicine” last night with an 8-7 defeat in a game that went 12 innings. 

It was supposed to be Carlos Hernandez starting for the Royals on Saturday, but he was called upon last night when Kris Bubic couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Hernandez did an excellent job keeping his team in the game, retiring 14 batters in a row. Seattle hits just .210 at home and has the worst overall team batting average in baseball. They are also bottom five in OBP, slugging and OPS. Daniel Lynch will now get the starting call for KC, keeping this a battle of lefties. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 12 IP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Anderson, who has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. Despite all the grand slams, the Royals still only average 3.7 rpg on the road this season. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the Phillies -1.5. I was going to play the Phillies yesterday, but a late pitching change - Matt Moore starting in place of Zach Eflin - scratched that. Moore struggled mightily, giving up four runs on seven hits in his four innings of work. It was 8-2 in favor of the D’backs going into the bottom of the ninth when Philly made a game of it by scoring five times. But they were still a run short and are now an embarrassing 0-4 this season against Arizona, who just won B2B road games for the first time since April. 

The Phillies have a much more suitable starter set for tonight. That would be Aaron Nola, whose 11-14 YTD TSR is just not indicative of the way he’s pitched in 2021. Last time out, Nola took a perfect game into the seventh inning but ended up getting a no-decision as the Phillies lost to the Padres 4-3 in extra innings. Nola went 8 ⅔ and struck out 11 batters. It was the 11th time this season that Nola allowed 2 ER or less. I simply cannot see the Phillies losing again to the D’backs and if anyone on this staff deserves a win, it’s Nola. 

Arizona might be 4-0 vs. the Phillies this year, but they are still 41 games below .500. As I said earlier, this is the first time they’ve been off B2B road wins since April. They are 17-49 on the road, including 4-23 as an underdog of +175 to +250. So it’s not a question IF they lose, it’s if they lose by multiple runs. I think they will. For the year, they’ve been outscored by an average of nearly two full runs per game away from home. Taylor Widener, despite some success, has seen his velocity decrease over his last couple starts. I think the Phils will get to him on Friday. They may be banged up, but the home team should still exact revenge. 10* Run Line Philadelphia

8* Toronto (7:10 ET): My view on Toronto has been well-documented throughout this season. I feel they are the most underachieving team in all of baseball. Despite a run differential of +113 (7th best overall), the Blue Jays are only six games over .500 and on the periphery of the Wild Card race. This is a team with an expected won-loss record of 75-51. Oddsmakers consider them a top six team in baseball and so do I. But after a disappointing 5-10 stretch, the Jays simply MUST get it going this weekend. 

Toronto is coming off a four-game split with the White Sox, not what they needed but far from an embarrassing result. However, dropping two of three at home last weekend to Detroit was downright unacceptable. The Jays now get a chance at revenge when they pay a visit to the Motor City for the next three games, starting tonight. Steven Matz will get the start and he’s pitched well of late (1.25 ERA in August) despite an unimpressive record. Against the Tigers last weekend, Matz gave up just one run on five hits. But Toronto ended up losing 5-3, emblematic of the kind of season they are having. Matz certainly deserves better than a 3-4 TSR over his L7 starts considering he’s allowed 2 ER or less six times in that stretch. 

I expect Matz to pitch well again here as the Tigers have been struggling to score of late. Over the last nine games, Detroit has scored two runs or less five times. That includes a 3-2 extra innings loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. Rookie Matt Manning, working on extended rest, will be the starter for the home team today. He was plagued by control issues last Thursday, a game where the Tigers blew a huge lead and lost 13-10. The Blue Jays are 26-13 vs. sub-.500 teams this year, so this is a matchup they really should dominate. It’s now or never and I’m not ready to give up on this team just yet. 8* Toronto

8* Under Royals/Mariners (10:10 ET): This will be the first time in over two years that these teams have faced off. That’s really odd considering they both hail from the American League, but last year’s schedule was dramatically altered because of the pandemic. They met eight times in 2019 and none of the games saw fewer than nine runs scored. But a lot can change in 2+ years. Neither of the teams are very strong offensively in 2021. I’m taking the Under in this battle of unfamiliar opponents.

My thoughts on Seattle are well known. How they are still in Wild Card contention is a minor miracle. This is a team that’s been outscored by 56 runs this season, but is somehow 11 games above .500. They’ve gone 26-14 in one-run games and 11-4 in extra innings. Very fortunate. It’s also amazing that they can win with an offense that is so unproductive. Coming into this series, the Mariners are dead last in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 25th in slugging and 27th in OPS. They are hitting .209 for the year at home. Kansas City’s Brad Keller, who is off a quality start his last time out, should pitch well here.

But so should Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. He didn’t pitch well his last time out, but he was facing Houston, the highest scoring team in the big leagues. Kikuchi has generally pitched very well this season. That last trip to the mound was only the third time since April that he permitted more than 3 ER in a start. Kansas City, like Seattle, is bad offensively. They average only 3.7 rpg on the road. After being shut out on Tuesday, they scored five times yesterday. But four of those five runs came from a grand slam. 8* Under Royals/Mariners

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It’s all about revenge here for the Phillies, who suffered an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the D’backs just last week. I can remember when the Phils were the hottest team in all of baseball. It wasn’t that long ago! They started August on an 8-0 run and were (temporarily) in first place in the NL East. Since then, they’ve lost 10 of 14 and are now five games back of the Braves. Can’t say that I’m all that high on the Phils, but hosting an Arizona team that is a horrendous 16-49 on the road should make for an easy win. 

The D’backs are off a win as they beat Pittsburgh 5-2 yesterday. At 8-5 their last 13 games, this is actually one of the better stretches of the season. But that’s pretty sad when you think about it and there’s no running from the fact this team is 42 games below .500. Remember when I faded them on Monday? It’s the same situation here. On Monday, they were coming off a win in Colorado. In each of the last two series, the D’backs lost the first two games. They are just 9-20 their L29 series openers. They also have not won B2B road games since April. 

Philly was just swept at home in a brief two-game series with Tampa Bay. But the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball. It’s an immense drop in class with who they are facing this weekend. Zach Eflin is making his first start in over a month here. I’m not concerned as he has 11 quality starts to his name this season and pitches a lot better at home than he does on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona’s Zac Gallen has won just once in 16 starts this year. The team is 3-13 when he’s on the mound. You have to fade the D’backs on the road at this price. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Angels/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore’s losing streak is over. They snapped a 19-game skid yesterday by beating the Angels 10-6. The win also snapped a four-game losing streak to the Angels this season. Now Thursday’s starter Keegan Akin will try and stop his own personal losing skid. Akin is still winless on the season and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts. I can’t bet on him. Nor can I bet on the Angels’ Jaime Barria, who also has ugly looking numbers. Almost all of the Angels-Orioles matchups this year have turned into slugfests and this one should be no different. Take the Over. 

There were 16 total runs scored in yesterday’s and 22 scored in Tuesday’s game. The Angels won that one 14-8. Twenty runs in two games is pretty impressive and Los Angeles should continue to hit the cover off the ball today against Akin, who has an 8.87 ERA and 2.014 WHIP. The last time Akin faced the Angels, he gave up four runs in three innings. That game, an 8-7 loss for Baltimore, easily went Over the total. Akin almost never makes it past the fifth inning and (as I’m sure you could have guessed) the O’s bullpen (5.30 ERA) is pretty horrific. 

Barria’s numbers over his last three starts are nearly identical to Akin’s. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP during that time. Last time out, he was tagged for five runs in two innings by a Cleveland team that is offensively challenged. While both these teams have had their fair share of struggles at the plate in August, it’s clear that the hitters are ahead of the pitchers in this series. The Over is 37-15 the last 52 times the Angels have been favored. Baltimore is 28-12-1 Over its last 41 home games. 8* Over Angels/Orioles

7* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Nathaniel Lowe had himself quite a game last night for the Rangers. He was 5 for 5 at the plate. It was his three-run homer in the first inning that really put Cleveland “behind the 8-ball” and it wound up being a relatively easy Rangers’ win, something you don’t see too often, especially on the road. It has been well over a month since Texas, now 16-47 away from home this season, has won a road series. They have a ton of players on the COVID-19 list right now, including the two pitchers who were supposed to start today and tomorrow. This is a game the Indians have to win. 

It will be Jake Latz replacing Spencer Howard in the Texas rotation tonight. Latz, who pitched at nearby Kent State University, is making his first career start in the big leagues. It is not as if he was particularly dominant “down on the farm” as he had a 4.69 ERA at Double-A Frisco and a 7.00 ERA at Triple-A Round Rock. The Indians’ offense didn’t manage much last night, but had previously scored 17 runs during a three-game win streak. They are 16-7 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175. 

So I expect the home team to swing the bats well tonight. Zach Plesac will be the starting pitcher tonight for Cleveland. He’s been inconsistent this year, but does have a 0.69 ERA in two previous starts vs. a Texas team that hits just .219 on the road (3.7 rpg). I was really shocked to see the Indians lose on Tuesday considering they had Monday off while the Rangers were in Boston. I find it very hard to believe they’d lose two in a row to the last place Rangers, who have won multiple games in a row just once since the start of July. 7* Cleveland

10* Under Royals/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston has had its fair share of difficulty beating Kansas City. The teams have met six times this month and it’s the Royals with the surprising 4-2 head to head advantage. But last night was a 4-0 shutout for the Astros, thanks to a superb outing from Luis Garcia. The Royals’ offense had been surging in recent days, but could only manage four hits against Garcia and four Astros’ relievers. I’m not shocked that it happened. For the season, KC is averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road. So they were “due” to come back down to Earth. Look for the offensive regression to continue here.

Houston has the highest runs per game average in baseball (5.4) but they have scored just eight times in the previous three games. Three of their four runs last night came in the first inning. Kansas City pitching has been pretty good of late. Only once in the last eight games have they allowed more than four runs. Mike Minor is set to start Wednesday afternoon and he allowed just three runs in 5 ⅔ IP when he faced the Astros last Thursday. The Under is 5-0-1 in Minor’s last six starts. 

Houston holds teams to 3.9 rpg and a .218 batting average here at home. Those numbers are obviously very good. Lance McCullers gets the starting nod today. He now has 10 wins on the year and has gone 7-3 over his L11 starts. He did not face the Royals in last week’s series. But he did hold Seattle to only two runs in his most recent start. There have been only four times all year where McCullers has allowed more than 3 ER. Assuming Houston is up, they won’t have to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 10* Under Royals/Astros

8* St. Louis (1:15 ET): I was shocked and appalled at what happened to the Cardinals last night. They lost 4-3 to the Tigers, thanks to Miguel Cabrera and Robbie Grossman’s back to back homers in the top of the third. By that point, the game was 4-0 and practically out of reach for the Cards. They did make a game of it with a three-run rally in the eighth. But in the end they were a run short. Today they’ll have to contend with a hot pitcher, but I just can’t see them dropping to 0-4 vs. the lowly Tigers this season. 

Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty having to leave Tuesday’s game with shoulder tightness was a major blow. Flaherty clearly “didn’t have it” from the start. He recorded only six outs and was removed after allowing the B2B home runs. Today’s starter will be Jon Lester. One of the more durable pitchers in the game, Lester took a line drive off his calf in his last start but still continued. He was not as effective as he’d been in his previous start, but the team still won, 8-4 over Milwaukee as +175 underdogs. That previous start had seen Lester go 5 ⅔ innings and give up just one run in what was a 7-4 win at Kansas City. 

Tarik Skubal has been excellent over his L3 starts for Detroit. He’s posted a 1.02 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 17-2 KW rate in 17 ⅔ innings. But his season-long numbers should give you some pause. Skubal’s ERA on the road is 5.11. His lone road win over the last two months came at Baltimore, the worst team in baseball. Despite losing five of their last seven, St. Louis still has a +13 run differential and .261 batting average over the L10 games. Over its L10 games, Detroit has been outscored by 20 runs and is hitting just .219. 8* St. Louis

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers have to like where they’re at right now. They have a 7.5 game lead in the division. Corbin Burnes will start Tuesday’s opener with Cincinnati, who is in second place. This series is a chance for Milwaukee to basically end the race for the NL Central pennant. I don’t know how you could go against Burnes right now, given that he’s 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last 13 starts. He is second in the National League in ERA (2.13) this season. Really, it’s a crime that his team start record is “only” 13-8. Over his L3 starts, Burnes has allowed just one run in 21 innings. I know who I’m putting my money on here. 

Now there has been a strange trend in these Cincinnati-Milwaukee games. The road team has won 13 of 16 this year, including six straight. The Brewers swept a three-game series in Cincy right after the All-Star Break. That was after the Reds took all three games at American Family Field in the last series before the Break. I know the Brew Crew have a much better record on the road than here at home. But they are just a better ballclub compared to Cincinnati. 

Coming off a four-game sweep of Miami (at home), the Reds will start Tyler Mahle in this spot. Mahle is having a good 2021, but just gave up five runs in his last start and lost as a monster favorite (-315!) to the Cubs. Milwaukee’s offense has improved since Christian Yelich returned to the lineup. He’s hitting .356 the L11 games. But it all comes back to Burnes. In addition to not allowing any runs in his last two starts, he blanked the Reds for 8 ⅓ innings back on 7/18, a game where he had 12 strikeouts. The team has won his L6 starts. 8* Milwaukee

8* St. Louis (7:45 ET): The Cardinals actually lost two games in Detroit back in June. Despite the current homestand getting off to a less than desirable start, getting the Tigers at Busch Stadium is clearly a more favorable matchup. The AL team won’t have the services of a DH in its lineup, which tends to be a disadvantage. It’s not like the Tigers do much scoring with a DH in the lineup anyway. Over the last seven games, they are averaging 3.1 runs per game while hitting a collective .213. They’ll face Jack Flaherty tonight and he has very good numbers on the year. Should be a blowout for the home team here. 

It wasn’t that long ago that St. Louis won six straight road games, sweeping both the Pirates and Royals. Now neither of those teams are very good, but the same can be said for the Tigers. I know the Cards just dropped two of three at home to the Pirates over the weekend and before that they’d lost two of three here to Milwaukee. But the Tigers are just 19-46 as road underdogs of +175 to +250 over the L3 seasons. 

The Cardinals are only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, so they still have a chance. But they’ve got to get their scuffling offense going. After producing only nine runs in the last series, things should turn around here against Casey Mize, who has a 6.08 ERA in three starts this month. Two of those three starts saw Mize surrender three home runs. The Cardinals are 10-3 this season when Flaherty goes and he’s got a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP at home. Since returning from injury, the only two runs that Flaherty has allowed came on solo home runs. 8* St. Louis

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): These were two of the hottest teams in baseball going into yesterday’s series opener. Obviously, only one win streak could survive and it turned out to be the Yankees’, who have now won 10 in a row to move into Wild Card position in the American League. But the Braves are still fine, thank you very much. They lead the NL East by 4.5 games and I’m on the record as saying they WILL win this division. My confidence in that projection comes from the fact they have a +88 YTD run differential while the other four teams in the division all have negative run differentials. 

I look for the Braves to strike back tonight and end the Yankees’ win streak. Remember that Atlanta had also won nine in a row going into yesterday’s game. The entirety of that win streak came on the road. They lost 5-1 yday due to the Yankees getting a better outing from their starter and bullpen. I don’t think that will be the case again tonight as veteran Charlie Morton is set to toe the rubber for the home team. Morton is 12-4 this season and has gone 6+ innings in seven of his last eight starts. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of the eight. 

The Yankees haven’t exactly had the most productive year at the plate. They only average 4.1 rpg on the road and are minus the DH for this series. So that puts a lot of pressure on Andrew Heaney, making his fifth start for the team since coming over from the Angels. Heaney has a 6.55 ERA for the Yanks and really hasn’t impressed me, save for his last outing. Atlanta averages 5.1 rpg at home. Look for them to snap the Yankees’ win streak tonight. 8* Atlanta

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are fresh off a sweep of the Angels this past weekend. The pitching staff allowed only two runs in that three-game series. After having Monday off, the Tribe will welcome in a Texas team that has spent all year in the basement of the AL West. Whereas Cleveland had Monday off, the Rangers had to play a make-up date in Boston. Even worse for them is that the game went 11 innings and they ended up losing 8-4 on a grand slam. A bad team off a gut-wrenching loss, playing on the road against a rested opponent, has all the makings of a one-sided ballgame. Go with the Indians here. 

The three-game sweep of the Angels has Cleveland back at .500 for the year (61-61). It’s highly unlikely that they are going to make the playoffs, But they definitely have a chance to pick up some more wins in this series. Texas is a horrible 15-46 on the road this year (54-118 L3 seasons!) and in the bottom two in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS. They’ve been held to 1 or 0 runs in five of the last 11 games. So we should see Cleveland’s pitching, which was so dominant against the Angels, continue to succeed here. 

It will be Eli Morgan getting the starting nod on Tuesday. The rookie is coming off an excellent start where he gave up only three hits over six shutout innings. Cleveland’s offense has begun to turn things around a bit by averaging 6.0 runs over the L7 games. That’s bad news for Rangers’ starter Taylor Hearn, who is still winless after four starts and not someone you should expect to pitch deep into the game. Texas has lost 14 of 18 overall and 18 of 20 on the road. If the scheduling disadvantage wasn’t bad enough, they also just had to place four players on the COVID-19 list. 10* Cleveland

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): It became clear at the trade deadline that the Cubs were waving the proverbial “white flag” on 2021. Even so, their record of late has been downright inexcusable. They have lost 17 of 20 games in August and are on a franchise-record 13-game losing streak at home. The weekend saw them get swept here at the Friendly Confines by the Royals and yesterday’s 9-1 defeat may represent a new nadir. But with their best pitcher on the mound Monday, I am going to call for a win! 

Colorado is 43-22 at home this season, but just 14-45 on the road. That’s the fewest number of road wins in all of baseball. The dramatic home vs. road splits have defined this franchise throughout its existence, but clearly 2021 has taken things to the extreme. The Rockies average just 3.0 runs per game away from home, compared to 5.9 at Coors Field. That’s just incredible. Sadly, their pitching gets even worse on the road where they give up 5.0 rpg. At home, they allow just 4.7 rpg. The Rockies did lose Sunday, 8-4 at home to the D’backs. 

Today’s pitching matchup obviously favors the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks actually leads all of MLB with 14 wins, which is remarkable considering the team he is pitching for. The Cubs won Hendricks’ last start 2-1 (at Cincinnati) as the righty gave up just one run and three hits over six innings. Antonio Senzatela has an 0-8 TSR on the road this year for Colorado, so no one has felt the brunt of the team’s road woes more than him. There’s really nothing “hard luck” about the TSR either, In the eight starts, Senzatela has a 5.80 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): These are the two worst teams in the National League. The Pirates have the slightly better overall record, but when you’re 44-80 on the season and have gone just 4-16 in August, there’s no reason to celebrate. That said, the Bucs did just take two of three from St. Louis over the weekend. If ever there was a matchup where they should be favored, it would be this one against an Arizona team that is a MLB worst 15-47 on the road and using a spot starter. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-3 their L10 games, making this one of their best stretches of the season. But as mentioned above, the road has been incredibly unkind to them in 2021. Over the weekend, they lost two of three games in Colorado. They did win Sunday, 8-4, thus avoiding a sweep. But I can’t see them winning here with spot starter Humberto Mejia, who will be making his season debut. Mejia just got called up from Triple-A Reno. His previous three big league starts all came with Miami last year and he did not win any of them (5.40). Even down on the farm he had a 5.93 in 12 outings. 

The Pirates counter with Wil Crowe, who has pitched better than his record would suggest. In four of his last five starts, Crowe has allowed 2 ER or less. This is perhaps the most favorable matchup he’ll get all season. Pittsburgh has revenge here as they were swept out in Arizona last month. Crowe did not pitch in that series, which saw the number of hits by the two clubs end up relatively even (35-34) despite the D’backs outscoring the Bucs 21-12. This time things will be different. This is an incredibly cheap price to fade Arizona on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Run Line Toronto (1:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. I’ve been through this before, but in terms of wins & losses vs. run differential, no team has underperformed more this season than Toronto. They’ve outscored the opposition by 118 runs over the course of 2021. That’s the sixth best differential in all of baseball. But they are only 64-57 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. They did win Saturday, 3-0, and are due to win some more. I’m quite comfortable thinking they’ll win here by at least two runs. 

For a moment there, Detroit did climb into second place in the AL Central. But this isn’t a good team. They’ve now lost five of the last six games and the only time they displayed any real offense (Thursday), they blew an 8-run lead. They did win Friday, 4-1, but that was a game that went 10 innings. They struck out 15 times in that win, but were fortunate to turn four double plays - three of them inning-enders. Sunday’s starter Drew Hutchinson will be making just his second start of 2021. The first did not go well as he lasted only 1 ⅔ innings and gave up six runs. That was his 1st big league start in three years. 

Steven Matz will go for Toronto today. He allowed only one unearned run last Sunday when I took him against Seattle, a game that the Blue Jays won 8-3. Of the five runs that Matz has allowed over his L3 starts, three have been unearned. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in five of his previous six starts. There has to be a real sense of urgency for the home team, given the deficit they face in the Wild Card race. The Tigers are a team they should easily beat. The Blue Jays have dominated in day games this season (30-15) while the Tigers are just 1-6 coming off a shutout loss (8-21 L3 seasons). 10* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Under Angels/Indians (4:10 ET): Yesterday’s game went Over the total by half a run, but that was with the Indians basically doing all the scoring. They won 9-1, snapping the Halos’ three-game win streak. Now the Tribe seek to do something that they’ve only been able to do one time in August. That's win back to back games. This isn’t a particularly strong offensive club (25th in team batting average, 27th in OBP), so I have my doubts. But rather than fade them, I’m taking the Under here. Starting for the home team this afternoon is Triston McKenzie and he’s been red hot of late. 

Last time out, McKenzie very nearly threw a perfect game. He didn’t allow a hit until the 8th inning as he retired the first 23 batters he saw. There were zero walks and 11 strikeouts. Over his L3 starts, McKenzie has a 0.524 WHIP, which is just plain sick. He’s allowed just 10 hits and 1 walk in his last 21 IP. As a reminder, the Angels scored just one run yesterday and had four hits. You have to figure they’ll struggle against facing McKenzie.

But Cleveland only averages 4.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter. Today they are up against southpaw Reid Detmers. While Detmers struggled in his first two big league starts, giving up 11 runs in 9 ⅓ innings to the Dodgers and A’s, he came back with a solid outing last Sunday when he held Houston to one run and three hits over six innings. The Indians will be - by far - the weakest offensive club that Detmers has faced over his first four starts. The Under is 20-7-1 the L28 times LA has been an underdog. 10* Under Angels/Indians

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Arizona is in the midst of its most successful stretch since the end of April. They’ve won six of seven and for just the second time all year the D’backs are coming off a three-game sweep. But that sweep (of the Phillies) came at home. On the road, this team has been a disaster, going 14-45. That’s tied for the worst mark in MLB. Coincidentally, this weekend sees them facing the other team that has a 14-45 road record, Colorado. But unlike the D’backs, the Rockies are no joke at home. They currently sport a 41-21 record at Coors Field where they’ve won seven in a row. 

Home Field advantage has proven to be big in the NL West this year. Every team besides Arizona (who is 27-36 at home) has at least 40 home victories. Consider that only one other team outside the NL West has 40+ home wins on the season! The Rockies just swept the Padres here to start the week. This is a franchise that has long been defined by a stark home vs. road split. This season, that split has been taken to the extreme. The Rockies are 13-3 as home favorites of -125 to -175. 

Yes, I am fading Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert, who just threw a no-hitter in his big league debut. But that no-no came at home. Pitching in the thin air of Denver will be a much different experience for the rookie as the Rockies come in averaging a league-best 5.9 runs per game at home. Arizona is allowing a league-worst 5.7 rpg on the road. The Rockies just put up six or more runs in all three games vs. San Diego this week. Their starter, Austin Gomber, knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 6-2 TSR here this season with a 1.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. That includes six shutout innings in his last home start. The Rockies also had Thursday off, which is an additional advantage. 10* Colorado

8* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET): By now, most are aware of my “feelings” on the Mariners. They have no business being in Wild Card contention. Not with a -42 YTD run differential. But they have won 8 of 10 and are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas. Five of their last eight wins have come at the Rangers’ expense. Key to Seattle’s success this season is their MLB-best 26-14 record in one-run games. They are also 10-4 in games decided in extra innings. Sure enough, they won 9-8 in 11 innings yesterday. 

Houston also won in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Beating Kansas City 6-3 not only had them avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep, but kept them 2.5 games in front of Oakland for the division lead. The Astros have the top run differential in the American League right now (+164) and I’ve been saying all year that they will win the West. They also have MLB’s highest scoring offense at 5.3 runs per game. But their scoring average goes DOWN at home and I’m taking the Under in this one.

Seattle has one of the worst offenses in MLB. They are dead last in team batting average (.222) as well as bottom three in both OBP (.299) and OPS (.681). So this should be a mismatch in favor of the Astros. But Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi should be able to keep this one low-scoring. Kikuchi has a 2.97 ERA on the road and 13 quality starts this season. Only twice since the beginning of May has he allowed more than 3 ER in a start. Houston’s Lance McCullers should make this a nice pitcher’s duel though as he is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 previous starts against the Mariners. From April 25th through August 3rd, McCullers had a nice stretch where he went 8-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. 8* Under Mariners/Astros

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): I took the Brew Crew on Tuesday. They won 2-0, ending the Cardinals’ six-game win streak. In my analysis, I noted how the entirety of the Cards’ win streak was at the expense of the Pirates and Royals, two last place teams, and this step up in class was likely to give them some trouble. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in baseball, with one of the best pitching staffs, and sure enough they were 6-4 winners last night. While that game only went Over because of extra innings (Brewers tied it in the top of the ninth), I think this one is likely to sneak Over as well! 

Now playing the Over when Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee hasn’t been all that smart. The Under is 8-2 when Woodruff starts on the road. But you should note one of those Overs came in his last start, which was at Wrigley Field. There, the Brewers scored 17 runs in an absolute rout. Not saying that Woodruff is going to get that kind of support yet again. But the fact he had to leave that last start after three innings seems like a concern. He needed 74 pitches to retire just nine batters. The Brewers’ bullpen was taxed yesterday (seven relievers used), so if Woodruff can’t go deep into the game, they are in trouble. 

The Cardinals wasted an early 3-0 lead yesterday and didn’t score at all from the third through ninth inning. They have averaged 5.3 rpg over the last week though and will need to approach that average tonight due to Jon Lester starting for them. Lester has struggled in his first three starts for St. Louis (traded from Washington), posting a 6.75 ERA. He was better his last time out, but that was his second straight time facing the last place Royals. Lester has a 5.32 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the season. He’s just not the pitcher he once was. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

8* Under Phillies/D’backs (3:40 ET): If you recall, I wasn’t buying the Phillies back when they were on an eight-game win streak and in first place in the National League East. So it’s not a big shock to see that they’ve come crashing back down, losing six of their last eight games. What is surprising is the last two losses have come against the D’backs, a horrible team that has the lowest win percentage in the entire Senior Circuit. Philly has just four runs and seven hits in the first two games and could now be swept by a team that has just four win streaks of three games or longer all season. 

If the Phillies are to avoid the sweep, it will likely be because of today’s starter Zack Wheeler. Though he has twice given up four runs over his L3 starts, Wheeler has generally been outstanding in 2021. He is #1 among all starters in innings pitched (162), strikeouts (187) and complete games (three). He’s struck out 10+ batters in six different starts this season. Arizona does not exactly have the most fearsome lineup and Wheeler is 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in seven career starts against them. 

But my fear with the Phillies this afternoon is that they are not likely to score many runs. Over the last week, they’ve averaged less than three per game. They face Madison Bumgarner, who has strung together a pretty strong six-start stretch since coming back from injury. MadBum has a 2.09 ERA over the six starts, which have seen him allow 2 ER or less every time out. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games. I look for a pitcher’s duel this afternoon in the desert. 8* Under Phillies/D’backs

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox go for the sweep on Thursday. After winning the first two games rather comfortably, 5-2 and 9-0, they had to hold on last night for a 3-2 victory. It was a game defined by unexpected pitching changes. Originally, Oakland was set to start Cole Irvin, but the lefty got pushed back to today “in favor” of Paul Blackburn. The change likely had something to do with the news that Chris Bassitt will miss significant time. White Sox starter Lance Lynn lasted only four innings as he was ejected for complaining about a foreign substance check. 

Pretty clearly, the White Sox have shown a better ability to adapt in this series. They are now 42-22 at home this season, including 21-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. The bullpen did its job yesterday, now it’s Dylan Cease’s turn to lead the way this afternoon. Cease has a 2.44 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this year and has been piling up the strikeouts of late. He also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last seven starts. It’s certainly worth noting that the A’s have scored a grand total of four runs in the first three games of this series.

This will be the 1st time Irvin is starting against a non-division foe since July 3rd. The lefty has a 2-4 TSR his L6 outings, although he hasn’t pitched all that poorly. But he’s facing a pretty dominant home team today and the White Sox are 38-14 their L52 games when facing a lefty. Furthermore, Oakland is just 1-5 when losing the first three games of a series. 8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I’m 2 for 2 so far in this series, having won with the Braves on Monday and then Under on Tuesday. That combo is likely to hit again tonight, but considering the “price tag” on Atlanta (now -200 on ML), the Under certainly seems to carry more value. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that - on average - LoanDepot Park in Miami has seen the second fewest number of runs per game scored of any stadium in MLB (Citi Field is #1). That average is now down to 7.7 rpg after yday’s 2-0 final. The only runs scored last night came in the eighth and ninth innings. Take the Under again. 

Wednesday starter Charlie Morton is having a fine season for Atlanta. The veteran right-hander has won 9 of his past 11 decisions and is working on a streak of seven straight starts with 3 ER or less allowed. He’s gone at least six innings six times in that seven start stretch with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. The Under is 3-0 his L3 starts. The last time Morton pitched here in Miami, he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits (5-0 Atlanta win). The Marlins have really struggled at the plate in this series, scoring only two runs on eight hits. Last night marked the 11th time they’ve been shutout this season. 

The Braves are really surging right now and I do expect them to win the NL East. But, something else I mentioned in yday’s analysis is how their scoring average dips on the road, from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. For the first time, they’ll face Jesus Luzardo tonight. Luzardo came over from the A’s in the Starling Marte trade and he has struggled with his command in three starts for Miami. But one start in Colorado really skews his numbers. Marlins’ opponents are averaging just 3.7 rpg here in Miami and hitting .218. That’s for the year. Luzardo will pitch better than expected. 10* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Over Red Sox/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees swept Tuesday’s doubleheader and are now tied with the Red Sox for second place in the AL East. The two wins yesterday also moved them into a three-way tie with Oakland in the Wild Card race. Only two of the three teams can make it and you still shouldn’t discount Toronto (four games back) either. The two games yesterday (both seven innings, remember) were relatively low-scoring affairs: 5-3 and 2-0. But it should be noted that in the first game, Boston had the bases loaded in the top of the ninth (with no outs) and did not score. I like the Over today.

The Yankees are definitely surging right now as they’ve won five straight and 12 of the last 15 games. Their 45-23 record in games decided by two runs or less is the best in all of MLB. The offense is scoring more now and I like its chances against Nick Pivetta, who has somehow not started any of the 15 times Boston has faced the Yankees this year. Pivetta is coming off B2B strong outings, but this Yankees lineup is getting healthier and could get Anthony Rizzo back from the COVID-19 list tonight. 

Twice in the last seven games, the Red Sox have put up 16 and 20 runs. So their lineup must be respected. It’s still top six in MLB in runs scored. Yesterday they went 2 for 14 with RISP and the middle of the order (Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez) went 3 for 18 overall. You have to expect better in this one. Especially when Yankees’ starter Andrew Heaney has posted a 9.00 ERA over his L3 starts. Heaney has had a bit of a rough season and that’s led to the Over being 15-5-1 in his 21 starts. He allowed seven runs his last time out. 8* Over Red Sox/Yankees

10* Milwaukee (7:45 ET): St. Louis returns home following a 6-0 road trip. But the two teams they swept - Pittsburgh and Kansas City - are both in last place and a couple of real “lightweights.” While the win streak has the Cardinals five games above .500, they still have a -21 run differential on the year and more importantly they still trail first place Milwaukee by 10 games in the NL Central. The Brewers are the opponents to start this week and this is a big step up in class from what the Cards have faced over the L7 days. Talk about winning on the road - the Brew Crew have 40 road wins this season - the most in MLB. 

I love the fact that Corbin Burnes is on the mound today for Milwaukee. While St. Louis has scored 4+ runs in 11 consecutive games, there are only three teams in all of baseball that average a fewer number of runs per game. Burnes has been one of the top pitchers of 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 20 starts. The team has won each of the last five times he’s taken the mound, four of those being quality starts. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out, he struck out 10 consecutive batters! In two starts vs. the Cardinals this year, Burnes has allowed only one run and six hits total (11 IP). 

The Brewers’ only loss in the last seven games was part of a doubleheader with Pittsburgh. They’ve now had two of the last four days off. This is one of the best teams in baseball and with this pitching staff, they certainly stand a chance to win the NL pennant. In case you couldn’t tell, I’m not sold at all on St. Louis, who sends Adam Wainwright out to the mound Tuesday. Wainwright has pitched well recently, but that’s because his L5 starts have all come against sub-.500 foes. I look for Burnes to dominate here and the Brew Crew to end the Cards’ win streak. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under Braves/Marlins (7:10 ET): I had Atlanta yesterday and they rolled to a 12-2 win in the series opener. If you read that analysis, then you know I’m pretty high on the Braves right now and expect them to win the NL East for a fourth straight year. That confidence is based on the fact they currently sport a +82 run differential. No other team in the division even has a positive run differential. RD is typically an excellent barometer for projecting future performance. Throw in the fact that the Braves have won four straight and 11 of their last 13 and they SHOULD be feeling pretty good about themselves right now. 

But I don’t see them scoring 12 runs again tonight, or even close to that number. I had zero issue fading Marlins’ lefty Braxton Garrett last night as the Braves came in on a 6-0 run vs. southpaws. But tonight they must deal with Sandy Alcantara, a righty. Don’t be fooled by Alcantara’s 3-8 TSR at home. He’s pitched really well here (2.58 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). The Under is 8-2-1 in all Alcantara home starts. Though I was supremely confident in them last night, it should be pointed out that the Braves’ scoring average dips from 5.2 runs per game at home to 4.6 on the road. Alcantara is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six career starts vs. Atlanta. 

Marlins’ home games are typically low-scoring. You’re looking at an average of 7.8 total runs per game scored. That’s the second lowest average of any park in all of baseball (Citi Field is the lowest). Atlanta only gives up 3.9 rpg away from home, so we really look to be in good shape with this play. Starting for the Braves on Tuesday will be Huascar Ynoa, who has not pitched since May due to breaking his hand punching the dugout bench. Before breaking his hand, Ynoa had eight starts under his belt and allowed two runs or less in six of them. 8* Under Braves/Marlins

8* Run Line Toronto (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Toronto is a team that the marketplace seems to love and so do I. Despite being only 63-54 (4th place in the AL East), the Jays have outscored their opposition by 127 runs this season. That’s the fifth best differential in all of baseball! Their weekend in Seattle was not as good as I’d expected (dropped two of three), but a visit to the Nation’s capital should go well as they find the host Nationals on a seven-game losing streak. You can look for the visitors to win this game by at least two runs. 

Over the past week, Washington has lost four one-run games and is now in last place in the NL East. I expected better from the 2019 World Series Champs this season, but the current starting rotation doesn’t even come close to resembling what the team had planned going into Opening Day. Only one of five starters remain from the planned rotation, that being Patrick Corbin, is still around. Erick Fedde will get the nod here and he hasn’t won a decision since June 12th. Over his L7 starts, Fedde has a 6.25 ERA and 1.674 WHIP. He’s made it through six innings only two times during that stretch. 

Tonight, Fedde will be opposed by Alek Manoah, who is a perfect 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. Manoah had a career-high 11 strikeouts his last time out and that was on the road. Of course, it also helps that Toronto has scored 10+ runs in four of Manoah’s last seven starts. They probably won’t need to do that here though as the righty faces a NL lineup (no DH) and a weak one at that. The Jays’ WL record “should” be so much better than it is and I’m expecting a big finish to the season from them. Based on their run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a record of 72-45! 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland got an outstanding pitching performance from starter Triston McKenzie on Sunday. McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, retiring the first 23 batters he saw. He left after allowing just one hit in eight innings. The Indians won 11-0. The team can probably expect another strong effort on the mound today as Cal Quantrill gets the starting nod. Over his L6 starts, Quantrill has allowed a total of five runs in 36 IP. All six games have stayed Under the total. I think this one will too as Quantrill will be opposed by another pitcher who has put up impressive numbers of late. 

That would be Griffin Jax of Minnesota. Jax's first career big league victory came at the Indians’ expense back on June 25th. It was in a relief effort. As a starter, Jax has done quite well. All five starts have stayed Under with him posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in the last three. Though the number of runs he allowed in his last start (three) were equal to the number he allowed in the previous three combined, it was arguably Jax’s finest effort to date as he struck out a season-high 10 batters in a 4-3 win over the White Sox. None of Jax’s starts have seen more than nine total runs scored in the game. Same for Quantrill and those L6 starts. 

Minnesota’s last three series were all against division leaders. Surprisingly, they won all three series. Two of the last three wins have come in shutout fashion. But they’ve also been held to one run or less in their last three losses. Cleveland, off a shutout win, isn’t much of a threat to score as they average just 4.1 rpg on the road while hitting a collective .227. They are bottom five in both team batting average and on base percentage for the year. Look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel on Monday. 10* Under Indians/Twins

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves have won four consecutive series openers and six straight when facing a left-handed starter. So they have to be ecstatic today as they open up a three-game series with Miami and face a southpaw in Braxton Garrett. The Braves are also now alone in first place in the NL East after sweeping a three-game series from Washington over the weekend. When you look at the respective run differentials of all the teams in this division, first place is definitely where the Braves belong. This is a tough matchup for Garrett, a rookie, facing a lineup where the entire starting infield has 22+ homers on the season. 

Miami is also coming off a sweep, albeit against the moribund Cubs. But a four-game win streak matches a season-high for the Marlins, who are now out of last place in the division. They passed Washington, who - as I just mentioned in the preceding paragraph - got swept by Atlanta.. The Marlins’ everyday lineup now features as many as three rookies. So I’m not exactly expecting a big stretch run from them. They’ve already faced the Braves six times in July and lost four of the games. The Braves are 41-18 the L59 meetings. 

Atlanta, who has won 10 of 12 overall and seven straight on the road, turns to Touki Toussaint for this series opener. Toussiant is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. Miami. When handicapping this NL East race, I have to come back to run differential. The Braves have scored 72 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division sports a negative run differential. So while both of these teams are coming off sweeps, the larger bodies of work clearly point to one team continuing their winning ways. That would be the Braves. 8* Atlanta

10* Toronto (4:10 ET): This has been a very frustrating series for both me and the Blue Jays. Seattle has won both games despite having fewer number of hits. Friday’s 3-2 win was very typical of the Mariners’ season as they have gone a MLB-best 25-14 in one-run games. They won on a bases loaded walk after a Toronto runner was called out at the plate (after review) in the top half of the ninth. Yesterday’s 9-3 final score was misleading in the sense the Mariners had more runs than hits and it was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh inning. I just can’t see Toronto being swept here.

These teams enter Sunday sporting identical .534 win percentages. That is a crime. Toronto has the fifth best run differential in all of baseball (+122) while Seattle has a -42 run differential. The record in one-run games has been a big reason why the Mariners have overachieved so much this year, in terms of wins and losses. A team with their run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 54-64. A team with the Blue Jays’ run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 71-45. So you’ve got a situation where teams with identical win percentages “should” be separated by 18 games. That’s just incredible. 

Toronto lost George Springer to an ankle injury yesterday, which stings. But I still believe that baseball’s most underachieving team can get it done against the most overachieving team. Steven Matz began August with six shutout innings in a victory over Cleveland. He wasn’t as fortunate last time out, but two of the four runs he gave up were unearned. Logan Gilbert has an 11-4 TSR for Seattle, but hasn’t pitched nearly as well as you’d think. There have been six Gilbert starts this season where he did not factor into the decision and the team won by one run. He has an 0-2 TSR in August though. 10* Toronto

8* Under Rockies/Giants (4:05 ET): One component of this Under should be rather easy. Colorado averages a pitiful 3.1 runs per game on the road. That’s the fewest in all of MLB. San Francisco is giving up only 3.7 rpg for the year. That ranks 2nd overall. The Giants have Alex Wood going Sunday. The team is 4-0 in his last four starts even though Wood has been far from his best in the last three. He’s faced Colorado twice this year and given up only four runs in 11 IP. I’m confident the Rockies aren’t going to score many runs on Sunday. 

But the Giants only scored once in a (4-1) loss Saturday. That was after winning the first two games of the series 7-0 and 5-4. Yesterday marked just the 14th road win of the season for the Rockies. They still only had five hits though. The loss snapped the Giants’ six-game win streak. I think they should continue to “cool off” at the plate though as they go against Jon Gray here.Back in May, Gray allowed only two runs in six innings when he faced the Giants at home. 

The Giants are big favorites Sunday though and that should be respected. Assuming they do win today, that means we won’t have to worry about playing the bottom of the ninth, which is nice when you have the Under. The Under is 8-2 in Colorado’s L10 games after allowing two runs or less the last game. The Giants are 7-0 Under the L7 Sundays. I don’t see many runs being scored in this one. 8* Under Rockies/Giants

8* Under A’s/Rangers (2:35 ET): After having their seven-game win streak snapped Friday, the A’s wasted little time getting back on track with a 8-3 win over the Rangers Saturday. Considering Texas is the last place team in the division, and one of the worst teams in baseball, it’s surprising that Oakland is only 9-6 in the head to head series this year. Looking at today’s game, the A’s have never been priced higher on the money line for any road game than they are here. I’m not too keen on playing them at this price, but I do believe they’ll keep the Rangers’ weak offense in check. Take the Under.

Texas is the lowest scoring team in the American League. They are 29th in MLB in team batting average, 30th (i.e. last) in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 30th in OPS. So that’s bottom two in the four major categories. So Sean Manaea, despite off a couple shaky starts, should have an easy job this afternoon. In 14 career starts vs. the Rangers, Manaea is 7-3 with a 3.65 ERA. He had ended July with B2B quality starts, allowing one run on four hits total. He also had 22 strikeouts in the two starts (13 IP).

So in terms of the Under, it’s probably up to the Rangers to keep Oakland’s bats in check. Starter Kolby Allard has yet to win at home this season (0-6). But his WHIP (1.182) is not all that bad and he’s coming off B2B quality starts. Against both the Angels and Mariners, Allard allowed just two runs in six innings. Given how Oakland has been swinging the bats recently, I know it seems “risky” to take the Under. But they only give up 3.6 runs per game on the road. Texas won’t score much and I don’t think Oakland will either. 8* Under A’s/Rangers

8* Toronto (10:10 ET): Last night was so typical of how the Mariners have been able to succeed this year in spite of a -48 run differential. They were outhit, but won on a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. That came on the heels of a play at the plate in top of the ninth where Toronto runner Breyvic Valera appeared safe, but was called out after replay. Seattle is now 25-14 in one-run games, an incredibly fortuitous record. No team in all of baseball has overachieved more, in terms of wins & losses. Based on their aforementioned run differential, they have a win expectancy of 53-64. Their actual record is 62-55, a nine-game difference from where they “should” be. 

Toronto is quite the opposite of Seattle. They have a run differential of +128, which is fifth best in all of baseball. Based on that run differential, they have a win expectancy of 71-44. But here they are at 62-53, just two ahead of the Mariners in the loss column despite the vastly superior run differential. The Blue Jays are just 8-14 in one run games. They should be much higher in the standings and it would be a crime if they failed to grab one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. They are certainly WAY better than Seattle. 

Both teams have been getting outstanding starting pitching of late and we’ve got a strong matchup tonight of Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Yusei Kikuchi. Ryu is off a rough start vs. Boston where he allowed seven runs, but the Blue Jays still won the game and are 6-0 in his L6 starts. Remember what I said yesterday about the Mariners offense. It ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories. They are hitting just .208 at home! Kikuchi has actually pitched WORSE at home compared to the road. He is 2-4 in nine starts here with a 4.53 ERA. I’m “doubling down” on the Jays tonight. 8* Toronto 

10* Houston (9:07 ET): The Astros are the #1 team in my personal power ratings and I’ve been adamant all season long that they will win the AL West. With a 4-1 win over the Angels last night, they were able to increase their division lead to 2.5 games over the A’s (who lost Friday). That’s obviously not a very large lead though, so the ‘Stros can’t afford to let up now. Fortunately, a +161 YTD run differential thanks to MLB’s highest scoring offense tells me they won’t. On the road this year, Houston is winning by an average margin of 1.6 runs per game. Look for them to beat the Angels again tonight.

The Angels, who have dropped five of seven, are a game below .500 and pretty much out of the playoff race. They are 3-7 vs. Houston this year. Last night was the first time they’d faced them since May. So tonight’s starter Jaime Barria is not someone the Astros have seen this season. But they have faced him several times prior to 2021, including a game last September where they scored six times off him in 2 ⅔ IP. Barria, who has spent a good deal of time down in Triple-A this season, has looked good in three starts since being placed in the rotation. But here he’s facing a team that puts up 5.7 rpg on the road. 

Luis Garcia looked good for Houston last Saturday, pitching six shutout innings of two hit ball. It was the second straight home start where Garcia did not allow a run while going six innings. Now the road has been a bit of an adventure, but I trust him to get the job done tonight. The Angels have been held to three runs or less in five of the last seven games while batting a collective .222 during that stretch. Garcia allowed just three runs on five hits when he faced them earlier this season. 10* Houston

10* Toronto (10:10 ET): This is a matchup I am very much looking forward to. If you’ve been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you already know why I am looking forward to it. Here we have two teams with perhaps the most misleading records in all of baseball. Toronto is far better than its 62-52 record. At least based on their +129 run differential, which is fifth best among all teams! Compare that to Seattle, who is also in the AL Wild Card race, but has a -49 YTD run differential. While these teams are separated by just two games in the standings, the gap in their win expectancy (based on run differential) is 20 games! So obviously I’m siding with the Blue Jays Friday night. 

The Jays split four games with the Angels to start the week. They didn’t have any answers for two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani yesterday. But while they are facing a pitcher (Chris Flexen) that is tied for the 2nd most wins in all of MLB (14), he is nowhere near as dominating as Ohtani. Flexen actually has a 6.89 ERA and 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts. He did not factor into the decision the only time he faced Toronto previous to this as he gave up three runs in five innings. The Mariners are just 1-3 in Flexen’s last four starts.

While Toronto did lose yesterday, they are still 12-4 in their L16 games. Their starting pitching has been outstanding during this stretch, posting a 9-1 record and 2.16 ERA. I expect a strong start here out of Robbie Ray, who faces a Seattle lineup that is near the bottom of the league in every key offensive category. At home, the Mariners are hitting just .209! They were lucky to get by the lousy Rangers each of the last two days, but had dropped five of six prior to that. Ray is coming off three straight quality starts and has a 2.90 ERA/1.074 WHIP this season. The Blue Jays are 8-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Toronto

8* Under Cubs/Marlins (7:35 ET): Needless to say, it doesn’t look like we’re going to have a repeat of 2003 when these two teams were involved in one of the most infamous NLCS of all-time. Both the Cubs and Marlins have been relegated to “playing out the string” at this point. The Cubs have lost eight in a row and gave up 27 runs in the two games, both of which were against NL Central-leading Milwaukee. So they’ll be happy to make the trip to Miami and play someone else. The Marlins were off yesterday after shutting out San Diego 7-0 on Wednesday. Despite what the recent trends say, I’m taking the Under in this series opener. 

Prior to the shutout win 48 hours ago, Miami had been on an 8-1 Over run. They’d been giving up their fair share of runs, but it’s important to note the majority of those games were on the road and three of them were at Coors Field. Now they return home. LoanDepot Park has quietly become a safe haven for Marlins’ pitchers as they are giving up just 3.5 runs per game and a .211 batting average here. Unfortunately, the offense doesn’t always do its job as the Marlins only average 3.9 rpg at home. The total average number of runs scored per game in this park this season is second lowest in MLB (Citi Field is #1). 

Cubs pitching gave up all those runs the L2 days, but you may not have noticed that yesterday was the most runs they scored in a game in quite some time. Unfortunately, that number was only four. On the road, the Cubs average just 3.7 rpg this season. Before yesterday, they’d scored just eight times in five games and were shutout twice. The two starters for tonight’s game - Adbert Alzolay for the Cubs and Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins - don’t have the best numbers. But the former has pitched better than his record and is off a quality start. The latter is backed by a strong bullpen. 8* Under Cubs/Marlins

10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): This game is taking place in Dyersville, Iowa at the “Field of Dreams” (as in the movie). It figures to be quite the spectacle on FOX tonight. I also believe that the White Sox are going to win big. Lance Lynn was slated to start for them yesterday, but got pushed back to tonight. Pitching was not the problem for the White Sox in yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Twins, obviously. While it was disappointing to lose in that fashion Wednesday, the fact that they’ve got Lynn on the mound tonight makes the White Sox a much stronger play. 

The Yankees have surged in the second half, winning 12 of their last 16 to get into Wild Card contention. But they’ve been beating up on a lot of bad teams (Royals, Mariners, Orioles) lately and this will be a big step up in class. The White Sox are a top five team in all of MLB and have opened up the biggest division lead (10.5 games) in all of MLB. They also have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at Yankees Stadium back in May. While some might be content to wait for this series to shift to Chicago, we can get a much better price on the “home team” here. I know the White Sox road record (29-28) isn’t all that great. But they’ve actually outscored their opponents by a full run per game away from home. 

 White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in 7 of the last 10 games. With Lynn on the bump tonight, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. The Yankees are not a high scoring ballclub. They only average 4.0 rpg on the road. Andrew Heaney, who has a 5.45 ERA, is not going to be able to outduel Lynn here. The White Sox are 37-14 L51 games vs. a LH starter. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Atlanta (5:10 ET): So my read on the Braves is seemingly correct. I took them on Tuesday and in that analysis I noted how they are the ONLY team in the NL East that has a positive YTD run differential. In fact, said run differential is significantly better than the four other teams in the division. I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a great predictor for future outcome (in any sport). It’s far more valuable to me than a team’s actual won-loss record. I only wished I had played the Braves yesterday as they beat the Reds again, this time 8-6 in 11 innings. But here’s another chance Thursday and I’ll call for the sweep.

You may recall I noted the situational edge that Atlanta had going into Tuesday’s opener as the Reds were playing in their third different city in as many days. They won that game in come from behind fashion, 3-2. They actually jumped out to a big lead last night as it was 5-0 after two innings. The Reds were able to tie the game up and send it to extras, but a three-run Ozzie Albies’ HR ended it in the 11th. Losing two in a row like that has to be demoralizing for Cincinnati, who have seen their Wild Card hopes take a hit. Like the Braves’ division rivals, the Reds have a negative YTD scoring differential. So I don’t like their future prospects anyway. 

With a win today, the Braves would be in first place by themselves for the first time this season. They will hand the baseball to Kyle Muller, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts to go along with a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. I know that Vladimir Gutierrez has been equally as good for the Reds as of late. But the Braves have the edge in the bullpen. Also, with catcher Travis d’Arnaud back, the lineup is now deeper. This is a team that already averages 5.3 runs per game at home. 8* Atlanta

10* Over A’s/Indians (7:10 ET): The A’s are in the driver’s seat right now in the AL Wildcard race. They stayed hot by coming from behind to win here in Cleveland last night, 4-3 in 10 innings. It was their fifth straight win, which not only put them on top of the WC race but they are also just two games back of the Astros in the West! Meanwhile, Cleveland is fading fast. They’re now below .500 on the season and have a run differential that’s not indicative of a true contender. While most signs do point to another Oakland victory tonight, I am more confident in the fact that there will be more runs scored than what we saw yesterday. Take the Over. 

Last night marked Oakland’s sixth straight win here at Progressive Field and the team’s bullpen deserves virtually all of the credit. They did not get a good effort from Tuesday’s starter Sean Manaea, who allowed three runs in 1 ⅔ innings. But the relievers came in and did their job, not only keeping Cleveland scoreless for the rest of the game but also allowing only one hit! But that kind of bullpen usage puts a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Frankie Montas, who still has a 4.10 ERA despite some recent strong efforts on the mound (five straight quality starts). I think Cleveland will be able to string together more offense tonight compared to yesterday. 

Cal Quantrill, like Montas, is coming off a strong five start stretch. In fact, the L5 starts by the Indians’ right-hander have stayed Under. But I see that string of quality efforts coming to an end here. The last Montas-Quantrill matchup (took place on 7/17) ended up being a 3-2 Oakland win. But the hitters are getting a second chance and in the case of BOTH lineups, should do better. Outside of a series with the Angels, the A’s have not gone Under in B2B games in awhile. The Over is 38-28-4 in Indians’ night games this year. 10* Over A’s/Indians

8* Under White Sox/Twins (1:10 ET): Chicago may be rolling towards the AL Central pennant, but mediocre play on the road may ultimately doom them in the postseason. This is basically a .500 team away from home (29-27) and they lost to the last place Twins last night by a score of 4-3. That all being said, I couldn’t possibly endorse the Twins in this spot either. They are just 5-13 vs. the White Sox in 2021 and were beaten 11-1 back in the series opener. What I do think is - similar to yesterday - this is set to be a pretty low-scoring day game. Take the Under.

White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in six of the last nine games. With Lance Lynn on the bump Wednesday afternoon, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. This will be the fifth time Lynn starts against Minnesota this season. So far he’s unbeaten (2-0) and has allowed just five runs (one unearned) on 16 hits in 24 IP. Lynn should come out a lot stronger than Dallas Kuechel did yesterday. Keuchel issued three walks in a two-run 1st inning for the Twins. 

The White Sox also didn’t help themselves at the plate last night as they struck out 10 times. One more word on that aforementioned road record of theirs - they’ve actually outscored opponents by a full run per game on the road this season, so maybe that record should be better. But they can’t run from the fact their scoring average dips to 4.4 runs per game in the daytime. Rookie Bailey Ober gets the starting nod here for Minnesota. He has not been all that successful in four previous starts against the White Sox this season, but did keep them scoreless for five innings (allowed just two hits!) the last time he faced them at home. 8* Under White Sox/Twins

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball right here. Both Texas and Seattle are bottom five in: team batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and OPS. They are the bottom two in both batting average and slugging. In addition, the Rangers are second worst in slugging and worst in OPS. So the Under makes a lot of sense here. Texas has scored the fewest runs among American League teams. They’ve also dropped six in a row coming into tonight while not scoring more than three runs in any of those losses. 

 If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 59-54 despite a run differential of -51. With that kind of run differential, this team should be nowhere near Wild Card contention. They have a “win expectancy” of 51. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. While the Mariners have generally thrived in one-run games this season, five of their last six losses have come by that margin. Their last six games, including a 2-0 win over the Yankees on Sunday, have all gone Under. 

Logan Gilbert doesn’t have the best ERA, but he does have 1.099 WHIP and an 11-3 TSR for the M’s. I expect him to pitch well tonight in what will be his third start of the season vs. Texas. The Rangers have dropped 14 consecutive road games and are hitting just .173 over the last week. Kolby Allard, today’s starter, is having a miserable season for them (1-11 TSR). But he was sharp in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings. His WHIP is only 1.20. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, who just had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in Cleveland. That was a make-up game from a May 9th rainout. It was supposed to be an off-day for the Reds, but now they find themselves playing in a third different city in as many days. It was nice when they got to face the lowly Pirates at home over the weekend, but you can’t play the last place team in your division every day. Meanwhile, the Braves did get to enjoy Monday off and they are a team I’ve got my eye on for the stretch run as they are the ONLY NL East team to have a positive run differential.

Does Drew Smyly “deserve” to have a 3-0 team start record in his last three starts? Probably not. He’s posted a 1.917 WHIP during that stretch for the Braves and not factored into any of the decisions. He lasted just four innings all three times. But all three starts were on the road. He’s undefeated in four career starts vs. Cincinnati with a 3.12 ERA and beat them back on June 25th (allowed only one run in six innings). The Reds’ offensive numbers dip (by a lot) on the road and they are coming off B2B games where they scored just three runs. 

Sonny Gray is tonight’s starter for Cincy. He’s been no better than Smyly of late with a 8.16 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last three starts. The Reds’ bullpen (5.27 ERA) is also bad. The Braves’ offensive numbers go up (by quite a bit) at home. Back to Gray, he struggled some against Pittsburgh (lowest scoring team in MLB) in his last start, giving up four runs in five innings. I just love the situation here for Atlanta, whose +65 YTD run diff speaks well to how well the remainder of the season should go for them. 8* Atlanta

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Despite coming into this game on an eight-game win streak, the Phillies are decided underdogs Tuesday. That’s because they are playing the Dodgers, who I have rated as #1 team in all of baseball in my own personal power ratings. For some, these distinctions may seem a bit odd. After all, the Phils are in first place in their division (NL East) while LA is in second in theirs (NL West). But just look at those respective run differentials. Philly, even with the win streak, has been outscored this season. The Dodgers have scored 171 more runs than they have allowed. 

Max Scherzer was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline for moments just like these. Having come over from Washington, Scherzer is quite familiar with the Phillies. He’s 14-4 all-time against them with a 2.55 ERA. He actually pitched against them in his final start for the Nats and allowed just one run on three hits. He was every bit as good in his Dodgers’ debut, limiting a strong Houston lineup to just two runs on five hits over seven innings. Scherzer also matched his second highest strikeout total of the season with 10 in that game.

The Phillies’ sweep of the Mets over the weekend got them into first place. They held the Mets to five runs in three games. But the Dodgers’ lineup is far more formidable. They’ve scored more runs than every other NL team and more than every team besides Houston. Aaron Nola, who usually has the oddsmakers’ respect, has now allowed four or more runs in five of his last eight starts. He gave up five his last time out in a game the team was VERY lucky to win (trailed 5-1 going into the ninth). The Phillies are just 3-8 coming off an off-day while the Dodgers are 41-17 L58 in that situation. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Yankees/Royals (8:10 ET): The Yankees missed out on a chance to sweep the Mariners, losing Sunday by a score of 2-0. But I think they are likely to “rediscover” their offense tonight here in Kansas City as they oppose Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. While they were blanked yesterday, NY had previously averaged 7.2 runs per game during its five-game win streak. Take the Over here. 

Hernandez is coming off two straight effective outings against the White Sox. He won both by allowing just one run in 11 innings. However, it’s still a small sample size with the rookie, who has made only four starts this year. He has faced the Yankees once previous to this, but as a reliever on June 23rd. That appearance saw him blow a lead by giving up two runs in two innings. The Royals’ bullpen has gotten no better since Hernandez was moved to the starting rotation. Yesterday they gave up four runs in the late innings, resulting in the offense having to score in the top of the ninth in order to get the 6-5 win and avoid what would have been a three-game sweep. 

Jameson Taillon has pitched well of late for the Yankees (3-0 TSR, 1.42 ERA L3 starts), but there’s reason for concern with him in this spot as it’s a road game. Taillon has a 5.27 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in nine road starts. As a result, the Over is 7-2. He did pitch well against the Royals back on 6/24, but that was at home and this will be their second time seeing him. The Royals scoring average at home jumps from 3.5 rpg on the road to 4.7 at home. The pitcher had to come up to bat in the last series (at St. Louis), which is no longer the case here. 10* Over Yankees/Royals

10* Under Angels/Dodgers (4:05 ET): I’m just going to go ahead and take from my writeup (which told you to play the Under) on Friday’s game between these teams. There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. Not only did Friday’s game stay Under (4-3 final) so did Saturday’s (5-3).

Over their last 10 games, the Angels have topped five runs only once. That was against a terrible Rangers team. They have been held to three runs or less in seven of those ten games. They figure to struggle to score runs again today as they have to face Walker Buehler. Buehler was already having another great season for the Dodgers with a 2.16 ERA and 0.918 WHIP. But lately, he’s been “lights out.” He’s allowed just four runs in his last five starts and has a 0.89 ERA in the last three. Over the last two months, Buehler has allowed a grand total of two home runs. 

With the Angels likely to struggle to score runs in this game, all we now need to “worry about” is the Dodgers’ offense. Thankfully, it is quite likely that they’ll only come up to bat eight times in this game. (This is assuming they have the lead heading into the ninth). The Dodgers have been shutout twice in the last eight games though. They lost Friday’s game and it still went Under. So regardless of who wins here, anything but another low-scoring game would surprise me. Reid Detmers is a lefty and the Dodgers are 19-13 Under this season when facing a southpaw. 10* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Twins/Astros (2:10 ET): Houston finally won a game in this series, snapping what was a three-game losing skid with a 4-0 shutout yesterday. Despite the recent skid and the fact their lead in the AL West is down to three games over Oakland, I don’t think there’s any “problem” in Houston right now. The club still sports the best run differential (+151) in the American League and will have no problem making the postseason. Minnesota came into 2021 thinking playoffs, but they have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season as they are in last place in the Central and down 27.6 units at the betting window. 

The ML is too rich for my blood here and I don’t want to risk the chance the Astros win this game by only one run (so no run line). But I am confident this one stays Under the total. Houston may be the highest scoring team in MLB, but they actually average more runs per game on the road. They also have not scored more than five runs in any game in August. Kenta Maeda starts today for the Twins and should bounce back from a rough outing at Cincinnati last week. Prior to giving up five runs in that game, Maeda had allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts and 11 of his last 12. 

Lance McCullers Jr threw 6 ⅔ scoreless innings for Houston in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers last weekend. He looks to replicate that performance as he toes the rubber again Sunday. McCullers comes in with a 9-2 WL record and 3.02 ERA. Prior to that last outing, he’d given up four runs in B2B starts. But before that he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 14 of his 15 starts. Including last year’s brief playoff series, these teams have combined to go 6-1-1 Under against each other the L2 seasons. The Twins are 8-0-1 Under their last nine games vs. AL West teams. 10* Under Twins/Astros

10* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Braves -1.5. The Braves are a team that I am “buying” right now. Look at their YTD run differential compared to the rest of the National League East. They have scored 65 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division has been outscored over the course of 2021. Last night’s 8-4 win was the team’s fourth in a row. It was also the Nationals’ fifth straight loss. Look for those streaks to continue Saturday with the Braves winning this one by at least a two-run margin.

All the talk in the NL East right now is about how the Phillies have wrested first place from the Mets. But the Braves are just a game out of first entering Saturday and I expect them to win the division for a fourth consecutive season. Run differential is a great predictor of future outcomes. Charlie Morton, who will start tonight’s game, is off his first loss since June 11th. However, he has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive outings. His only previous start vs. Washington this season resulted in a 5-3 win (back on May 31st). 

The Nats were sellers at the trade deadline and I’m not expecting them to do very well the rest of the season. Trea Turner and Max Scherzer were sent to Los Angeles, leaving gaping holes on the roster. Josiah Gray was one of the players acquired in that trade with the Dodgers. He makes his second start for the Nats tonight. His first was a 7-5 loss to Philadelphia. Nationals’ pitching has given up a total of 36 runs during the 5-game losing streak. That’s a lot and here they are facing a lineup that averages 5.3 rpg at home. 10* Run Line Atlanta

8* Under Mets/Phillies (4:05 ET): Philadelphia won its sixth straight game on Friday and is now in first place in the NL East. After scoring a total of 43 runs in the previous five games, they needed only four to take last night’s series opener from the Mets. The Phillies were fortunate, not only to overcome three errors, but also that the Mets 1 for 8 with RISP. In the fourth inning, the Mets loaded the bases with nobody out but were unable to score any runs. I don’t think we’re going to see much scoring in this day game, so Under is the call here. 

This is the first time in three months that the Mets do NOT enter the day in first place. Injuries have really taken a toll on this team with the most notable absence being Jacob deGrom. But they still are one of only a handful of teams to be allowing less than 4.0 runs per game on the year. Saturday’s starter Tylor Megill has pitched quite well in his eight starts, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He did struggle in his last outing, giving up a season-high five runs (four earned), but I like him to bounce back here. The Phillies have never faced him and their offensive production is due to tail off. 

Though they are hot right now, I’m still a little lukewarm on the Phillies. Look for the Braves to win this division. But that’s a discussion for a different day. When the Phils face the Mets, typically you see very few runs scored. In 9 of the last 11 meetings, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored. That makes sense for a divisional matchup. So last night wasn’t out of the ordinary. Ranger Suarez makes his second start of the year for Philly here. The first saw him toss three scoreless innings and he didn’t give up a hit. Sounds good enough to me as the Mets average just 3.8 rpg. 8* Under Mets/Phillies

8* Run Line NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees appear poised to make a run. After coming from behind to defeat the Mariners 3-2 yesterday, they are a season-high 11 games over .500 and only 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. They've won their last four games and seven of the last eight. As for Seattle, I’m quite amused by the fact that four of their last five losses have been by one run. They are a team that has overachieved all season long, in part due to an unsustainable record in one-run games (now 23-12). But please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yanks -1.5. 

If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 58-53 despite a run differential of -52. That run differential gives them a win expectancy of 50. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. They've not only thrived in one-run games, but also extra innings (9-3). So, in my view, it was “just desserts” for them to lose the way they did Friday. The bottom line with the Mariners is they are NOT as good as their record and will fall out of contention for the WIld Card. Something else to consider is they have the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of MLB.

The Mariners might be 14-6 with Chris Flexen on the mound this year, but today’s starter has struggled on the road. He has a 5.44 ERA and 1.567 WHIP away from home. Yet, mirroring his team’s overachieving nature, Flexen has a 6-2 TSR on the road. The Yankees go with Andrew Heaney this afternoon, hoping he turns in a better performance than what we saw in his team debut. The former Angel allowed four home runs in his last start. But considering Seattle’s poor offensive numbers, I think Heaney will round back into better form Saturday. Seattle is 17-37 L54 road games vs. a LH starter. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (-1.5)

8* Under Angels/Dodgers (10:10 ET): There are many factors that I consider when betting a MLB total. Virtually all of them line up here towards taking the Under. Notably, we’ve got an American League team not able to play with the DH. The loss of the designated hitter becomes even more pronounced for the Angels when you consider visiting teams are averaging just 3.5 runs per game at Dodger Stadium. An all-lefty starting pitching matchup is another reason to not expect many runs tonight. Most hitters tend to struggle vs. lefties, especially when they are unfamiliar with them as is the case here.

We’ve got two good southpaws on the mound as well. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels. He’s allowed three runs or less in 11 of 12 starts this season. He was marvelous on July 24th at Minnesota when he came within one out of a complete game. Sandoval struck out 13 batters and allowed just one run (and one hit!) that day. He didn’t go nearly as long his last time out, but again allowed just one run vs. Oakland on July 30th. Unfortunately for him, the Angels’ offense forgot to score in what ended up being a 2-0 loss.

The Angels figure to struggle again at the plate tonight. They will face David Price. Now Price shockingly has an 0-5 TSR in his L5 starts. But the Under is still 6-1 when he pitches this year. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER. Run support has been an issue though with the team scoring just 22 runs in Price’s seven starts. The last one saw them get blanked 5-0 by the Giants, one of two times in the last six games that they’ve been shut out. The Angels just won in shutout fashion yesterday, by the way. I do expect this to be a Dodgers win, which would be helpful to the Under as it would likely mean they don’t come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Dodgers

10* Under Marlins/Rockies (8:40 ET): The two franchises that came into existence in 1993 square off this weekend at Coors Field. It’s the Marlins first visit here since 2019. Taking the Under at Coors may seem counterintuitive (thin air!) but the Under percentage here is actually the 4th highest in all of MLB (57.4%). Oddsmakers are keenly aware of the park’s reputation and always set the O/U line high. Miami’s offense shouldn’t scare anyone and I think we’ve got a pretty good starting pitching matchup tonight. The Rockies' last two games, one win and one loss, both stayed Under and those were here at home. 

German Marquez is someone who is clearly not bothered by the reputation of Coors Field. He’s 6-2 in home starts (10-3 TSR) with a 3.29 ERA and 1.148 WHIP this year. He has a 1.53 ERA in his L7 home starts! Quite frankly, it hasn’t mattered where the All-Star has pitched in 2021, he’s doing a tremendous job leading this staff. Over his L13 starts, Marquez has posted a 2.43 ERA. Over his L8 starts, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA. Last time out, he held the Padres to two runs and four hits. He should have little difficulty shutting down a Marlins lineup that has hit just .215 in its L7 games while scoring an average of 3.1 rpg. 

Despite a scuffling lineup, Miami did just take three of four from the Mets. Now they hope Sandy Alcantara can limit the Rockies’ offense. I think he’s the perfect man for the job considering he just tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his last start. That came against the Yankees. It was the 7th time this season that Alcantara has gone 7+ innings and given up two or fewer runs. Problem is that the Marlins are just 2-5 in those games. That’s indicative of lousy run support, which is likely to be the case again tonight. Look for the two starting pitchers to take charge Friday night in what promises to be a low scoring game. 10* Under Marlins/Rockies

9* Over Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): With these teams occupying opposite ends of the AL East spectrum, it’s certainly no surprise to see first place Tampa Bay is 8-1 in the season series against last place Baltimore. The Rays did have some trouble with Seattle in their last series, losing the first two games before a 4-3 win on Wednesday. But they still come into today holding a 1.5 game lead over Boston. Meanwhile, the Orioles surrendered 23 runs in their last two games and have fallen to 31 games below .500. They’ve given up the second most runs in all of MLB this year and thus I’m on the Over in this series opener. 

Tampa Bay has certainly had no problems scoring on Baltimore pitching this season. Only once in nine games have they failed to score five runs. They’ve averaged 7.0 runs across the nine games. Two of those nine games have come against today’s Orioles’ starter, John Means. Means made his return to the rotation (after a near two month absence) against the Rays on July 20th and gave up five runs in five innings. Earlier in the year, he allowed four runs in a 9-7 loss to the Rays. Both games went Over. Means looked a lot better at Detroit last week, picking up his 1st win since May 5th. But he did allow a HR, his 7th straight start doing so. In five of those seven starts he’s allowed multiple HRs. 

Tampa Bay is very stingy at home where they allow just 3.3 rpg. But on the road, that number balloons to 4.7 rpg allowed. Luckily for them, their own scoring average jumps to 5.4 rpg away from Tropicana Field. No surprise then that the Over is 31-18-3 in all Rays’ road games. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.60 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore this year and a 6.11 ERA in his L3 starts overall. One of those was against Baltimore as he allowed six runs in 5 ⅔ IP. He was no better last time out as Boston scored five times off him in 5 IP. 9* Over Rays/Orioles

8* Chi White Sox (2:20 ET): I don’t think there should be doubt in anyone’s mind over just who is the best team in Chicago right now. The White Sox have lived up to the hype in 2021, building the largest division lead of any first place team in baseball. They are running away with the AL Central and no one is going to catch them. The Cubs basically “threw in the towel” at the trade deadline and I can’t blame them as they had no chance of making up a sizable deficit in the NL Central. They enter the weekend 13.5 games out of first place and have lost seven out of the last nine games. Don’t overthink this one.

Now the White Sox have dropped two in a row themselves. Those losses came at the hands of Kansas City, a division rival that has curiously given them some problems all season long. But when not facing the Royals, the Sox boast an impressive 55-38 won-loss record. The road has been somewhat unkind to them (25-26 record), but what’s interesting about that is they have scored 4.9 runs per game away from home while allowing only 4.2. So that WL record should be better. They are 13-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 

Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07 ERA, 1.058 WHIP) should have little difficulty shutting down a National League lineup today. There has been only one time all season that Lynn allowed more than 3 ER in a start. That was against Houston, the highest scoring team in all of MLB. The Cubs aren’t even a good NL lineup as they are hitting just .227 for the year. Kyle Hendricks would have to turn in an amazing start today for the home team to have a chance, but he is just 1-4 lifetime vs. the White Sox. I know Hendricks is tied for the MLB lead in wins (13), but you wouldn’t know that from his “other numbers.” 8* Chi White Sox

8* Run Line Washington (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Nationals +1.5. This series has obviously not gone well for the Nats as they’ve dropped the first three games. But losing four in a row at home is “hard to do” and the Phillies aren’t a team I have any real affinity for. The home team did jump out to an early 3-0 lead last night (on three solo homers), but couldn’t hold as Nats starter Paolo Espino struggled mightily. However, the Phillies are still eight games below .500 on the road this year and I wouldn’t trust them to win this one by more than a single run.

Aaron Nola is someone who seems to command the oddsmakers’ respect. I took him on July 25th against Atlanta, a game he nearly went the distance and allowed just one run. But the team has a losing record with Nola on the mound this year (10-11) after losing his last start 3-2 at last place Pittsburgh. It is worth noting that before the time I took him, the right-hander had given up four or more runs in four of six starts. Nola has a losing career record vs. Washington, though he somehow has not faced them this season despite the teams meeting 15 times.

Joe Ross toes the rubber for the home team as they look to avoid the sweep. Ross has a 2.31 ERA in eight previous appearances vs. Philly. The most recent saw him toss five shutout innings of a three-hit ball - a game the Nationals ended up losing by one run. Back in June vs. the Phillies, all four runs that Ross allowed were unearned. So he’s got a good track record against them and as long as there are no mistakes in the field, he should keep them to a low number. Washington is a .500 team at home this year. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5)

10* Under Giants/D’backs (3:40 ET): So the Giants won yesterday, 7-1, thus improving to 11-2 vs. Arizona this season. One of those two losses occurred on Tuesday, by a score of 3-1, so it’s been B2B Unders in this series. San Francisco is tied with Milwaukee and the Dodgers for the fewest number of runs allowed this season, so it’s not really a surprise to see the D’backs struggling to score runs here. Last night’s game was a little misleading (more on that in a moment) in terms of how many runs were scored, so I’ll be on the Under this afternoon. I don’t think the Giants will match yday’s offensive production. 

So last night’s game was 3-1 in the top of the 7th and it appeared as if that half inning was over when LaMonte Wade Jr struck out. However, Wade was able to reach first on a wild pitch. That wild pitch proved costly as it opened the door for the Giants to score four times before the inning was over. None of that scoring “should” have taken place and had it not, these teams would be coming off B2B low-scoring games. Last night’s game still went Under mind you. 

It’s been a bleak season for Arizona, but Thursday starter Merrill Kelly has been one of the few bright spots. Kelly had gone 5-0 during a seven-start stretch from June 21st to July 24th. That may not sound like much, but consider the D’backs have just 34 wins this season. Ten of those have come with Kelly on the bump. Last time he faced SF, Kelly held them to three runs over seven innings. Alex Wood gets the nod here for the Giants and he has won four straight decisions coming into today. He’s also 2-0 vs. Arizona this year, having allowed just four runs in 11 innings. He has 15 strikeouts in the two starts. The D’backs hit just .226 vs. lefties. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): This is as big a pitching mismatch as you’ll see on the Wednesday slate and it’s pretty shocking the Angels aren’t bigger favorites on the money line. Shohei Ohtani, the two-way sensation who leads MLB with 37 home runs, will be making his first start since July 26th. Not including the All-Star Game, Ohtani made three starts in July. He won all three, posting a 1.35 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a 17-1 KW rate. Were it not for one wretched start at Yankees Stadium on 6/30, Ohtani’s overall numbers would be even more impressive. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. 

At the other end of the spectrum, you’ve got Kolby Allard for the Rangers. He’s 0-7 his L7 starts, which is the longest single-season losing streak by any Rangers starter in franchise history. During this hideous run, he posted a 7.82 ERA. It gets even worse when you look at just the last three starts where his ERA is 13.14 and his WHIP is 2.028. Allard has given up seven runs in B2B starts, despite lasting just seven innings total. So, to summarize, we’ve got maybe the most talented player in the game starting for one team and one of the biggest money losers (-8.4) in the game starting for the other. 

If it was just a matter of Ohtani vs. Allard, maybe there would be SOME pause. But the fact of the matter is the Angels also beat the Rangers 11-3 yesterday. They got three hits and three RBI’s from top prospect Jo Adell, who made his season debut. Ohtani also drove in two runs. Ohtani won both starts against Texas back in April, the only two times he’s ever faced them. Allard’s lack of success is nothing new either. He has a 2-15 record the L2 seasons. Texas is one of the four worst teams in baseball and just playing out the string. The Angels’ Wild Card chances aren’t great, but at least they are still in the race. 10* LA Angels

8* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Pirates stunned the Brewers last night, winning 8-5 in 10 innings. All eight of the Pirates’ runs came in two innings. They had a five-run seventh and then put three on the board in the top of the 10th to win the game. Not only were the Bucs initially down 4-0, but they didn’t have a single hit until the seventh inning! In retrospect, the decision by Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell to pull starter Adrian Houser (who still had the no-hitter intact) looks foolish. But what really opened the door for the Pirates’ rally was an error on a ground-ball (that could have been turned into an inning-ending double play). Four more runs were scored in that inning after the error. 

Based on the fact they didn’t have a hit until the seventh and couldn’t get a runner past second base until the fifth, I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to score eight runs again this afternoon. Keep in mind this is the lowest-scoring team in all of MLB at 3.7 runs per game. On the road, that number drops to 3.4. They are facing Freddy Peralta today, which doesn’t help either. Peralta has a 2.21 ERA (2nd best in NL) and 0.84 WHIP in 19 starts for the Brew Crew and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of his last two starts. In fact, he gave up only three hits! He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 13 straight starts. In three starts this year vs. Pittsburgh, Peralta has a 2.65 ERA. 

Yesterday was only the ninth time all season that Milwaukee lost when scoring four or more runs. It will be interesting to see what they can do today against Steven Brault, who has not started a big league game this season. Brault began the year on the 60-day DL. He posted a 1.42 ERA in four rehab starts. At the end of last season, Brault was pitching pretty well and his L9 starts all went Under. I think he can keep this Brewers’ lineup, which is tied for 28th in MLB in batting average, in check. 8* Under Pirates/Brewers

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): This series has NOT gone as I’d anticipated. The Mariners have won the first two games, 8-2 and 4-2. But my read on the respective ball clubs has not changed. I continue to believe Seattle is vastly overrated. They are 58-50, but have a -48 run differential. Based on that run differential, they have an “expected” win total of 49. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. No other team has exceeded its expected win total by more than five. That the M’s are now 6-0 this season vs. the Rays seems preposterous, so I’m going with the home team yet again. 

Seattle is the ONLY team that Tampa Bay has played this season and not beaten at least once. Typically, the Mariners have excelled in close games (23-10 in one-run, 9-2 in extras), but tip your cap to them in this series as they’ve simply played better. But the Rays still only allow 3.3 runs per game at home for the season and Seattle is last in baseball in team batting average plus they are 29th in OBP. This should be a very favorable matchup for the Rays, who continue to lead the AL East and have a top five scoring differential in all of baseball. It’s very head-scratching to see what’s unfolded over the L2 days. 

Tampa Bay did outhit their visitors last night, not that it mattered. Seattle still has a losing road record, by the way. It’s all up to Josh Fleming today as the Rays starter hopes to give his team something resembling his last two outings. Fleming made one big mistake (gave up a grand slam) when he faced the M’s on 6/19. He didn’t factor into the decision nor did Lucas Gilbert for Seattle, who will again oppose Fleming here. Gilbert has an 11-2 TSR overall, including 6-0 on the road, despite mediocre numbers. Like his team, Gilbert is due to drop a decision here. I don’t care about the H2H record. Tampa Bay IS the better team here. 8* Tampa Bay

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These are my #1 and #2 ranked teams in all of baseball. For Tuesday, I’m siding with #1 as the Dodgers look to have a sizable edge on the mound. Walker Buehler, one of the more underappreciated starters in the game today, has an 11-1 record in 21 starts to go along with a 2.19 ERA and 0.899 WHIP. He is coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings against San Francisco, another top three team in my power ratings. That marked the 18th time this season that Buehler has gone six or more innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs. He was named “Pitcher of the Month” for the National League in July. 

It’s not that Buehler’s counterpart, Lance McCullers Jr, is bad. But he hasn’t had a particularly strong start to the second half. He’s given up four runs in B2B outings and those came against Cleveland and Seattle, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball. The Dodgers have scored more runs this season than every team besides the Astros. But remember they have the edge here due to the game taking place at Dodger Stadium. There’s no DH for the Astros. Playing in the NL, the Dodgers 5.2 rpg average is probably more impressive than the Astros’ 5.5 rpg. Road teams hit just .213 at Chavez Ravine. 

The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 since the Break. You’ve got to figure a big run is on the horizon as they look to catch the Giants, whom they trail by 3.5 games in the NL West. Houston just lost two of three to the Giants. So did the Dodgers right before that, but they bounced back to take two of three from the lowly D’backs, including a 13-0 win on Sunday. Houston is just 3-7 vs. the National League this season. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So it turns out that I was dead wrong on this matchup yesterday as the Mariners ended up winning 8-2 behind 6 ⅔ solid innings from Chris Flexen. But my assessments of the two teams still haven't changed one iota. Seattle is the biggest overachiever in all of MLB. Based on their run differential (-50), they have an expected record of 48-59. Yet they are 57-40 due to tremendously good fortune in one-run (23-10) and extra-inning games (9-2). Their nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. (No one else greater than +5). 

Tampa Bay is 0-5 against Seattle this year, so they can feel my pain. The Mariners are the ONLY team this season to have an unbeaten record against the Rays. The fact TB was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend makes last night’s loss even more difficult to fathom. The Rays are still in first place in the AL East, one game in front of Boston (who was idle yesterday), but the lead is just a single game. They can’t afford any kind of “August swoon.” The fact they have the fifth best run differential in all of MLB (+104) speaks well to how they should perform moving forward. 

Giving up eight runs at home (as they did yday) is highly uncharacteristic for Tampa Bay. They came into Monday allowing just 3.2 rpg at Tropicana Field with opponents batting just .209. Tuesday starter Luis Patino has a 0.71 ERA and 0.789 WHIP (phenomenal numbers) in three previous starts at home. He threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Yankees his last time out. As for Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi, he has struggled mightily of late with a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Rays remain 65-24 L89 games as a home favorite, so this is a clear bounce back situation. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Truthfully, playing Toronto this way on Monday (which I made the mistake of doing) never looked good. They never even led, but the game did go to the 10th inning tied 2-2. That is when Jose Ramirez’s three-run HR won it for Cleveland. The Blue Jays continue to be one of the more confounding teams in all of MLB as they are just five games above .500 (54-49) despite having a run differential (+104) that is sixth best in all of MLB. I still have faith that this team can make a run at the Wild Card. Look for them to win by multiple runs on Tuesday. 

Last night marked the home team’s first loss in Toronto this season. Of course, they just returned here for the first time in nearly two years. The weekend saw them sweep the Royals and they certainly seemed to have some “momentum” (hate that word) coming into this series. Unfortunately, they really couldn’t get the bats going on Monday. They probably will NOT be able to maintain the same scoring average we saw in Dunedin and Buffalo (5.8 rpg), but they did average 5.0 rpg in the three-game sweep of the Royals. I expect a lot more production at the plate tonight. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu should take care of the Indians’ hitters. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts after tossing six shutout innings at Fenway Park last Thursday. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP over those L3 starts. Cleveland, not a good offensive team, is bottom five in both batting average and OBP. Manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence for the rest of the season, which isn’t good. Neither is the club’s -27 run differential. Zach Plesac (4.59 ERA on the road) starts today for an Indians team that is 0-5 off its last five victories and 1-10 after scoring 5+ runs the previous game. I view Toronto as a much more serious threat than Cleveland in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): It all lines up for us here as Tampa Bay hosts Seattle on Monday. The home team has revenge from a four-game sweep that occurred out in the Pacific Northwest back in June. They come in fresh off a four-game sweep of Boston. After sweeping, the Rays are now in first place of the AL East, which is where they belong given their +112 YTD run differential (tied for 4th best). As for the Mariners, we’ve “been through it” with them before. No team has overachieved more this season in the sense that they have been outscored by 56 runs, yet they have a 56-50. A team with a -56 run differential has a win expectancy of 47. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. 

But the weekend saw the Mariners get a taste of their own medicine. They are off back to back one-run losses to the Rangers. A 23-10 record in one-run games (including the B2B losses) and a 9-2 record in extras is how Seattle has been able to overachieve, record-wise. Those records demonstrate a tremendous amount of good fortune. I don’t see it continuing, especially here in Tampa. The Rays’ weekend couldn’t have gone any better and they allow just 3.2 runs per game at home (not to mention a .209 average). Seattle is bottom four in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS, including dead last in BA. 

The Mariners are giving up 5.4 runs per game on the road and Monday starter Chris Flexen sees his own personal numbers go way up away from T-Mobile Park. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in seven road starts. He also just gave up seven runs in his last start, which was at home. Michael Wacha is coming off a very solid July and has a 1.93 ERA/0.893 WHIP at home for the year. Homefield advantage, revenge and just being plain better. It’s all there for the Rays on Monday and I expect them to win very big. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Toronto (3:07 ET): It speaks volumes that the Jays are such big favorites on the money line for this afternoon game. But please note that I am taking them on the run line, -1.5. The team’s return to Toronto following an almost two-year absence (COVID-19) went perfectly as they swept the Royals over the weekend. They gave up only five runs in the three games. I’ve discussed it before, but the Blue Jays’ record should be a lot better. I say that based on the fact they have MLB’s sixth best run differential (+107). They’ve now won five in a row and I think they’ll continue to roll on Monday.

Cleveland, meanwhile, was a seller at the trade deadline despite being in second place in the AL Central and within striking distance of the Wild Card. But a -30 run differential paints a more accurate picture of this ballclub, which now will be without skipper Terry Francona (leave of absence) for the remainder of the season. The soon to be “Guardians” dropped two of three over the weekend in what was a very competitive series with the White Sox. I won with them on Saturday. But again, this line should speak volumes about where these respective clubs are “at” right now. 

Robbie Ray toes the rubber for the home team in this series opener. He’s made 20 starts this year and has a 3.04 ERA/1.073 WHIP. Six of his last seven starts have been quality outings, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three runs or less. He has a 2.27 ERA and 0.916 WHIP during that time. For Cleveland, Eli Morgan will start opposite Ray and he’s going to have to deal with an offense that leads all of baseball in scoring at home. Now that’s because all but three games were in Dunedin/Buffalo, but it’s worth noting the Blue Jays averaged 5.0 rpg over the weekend. Morgan has a 7.47 ERA in seven starts. Toronto is 25-12 in day games this season. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:08 ET): Coming into this series, I felt the Rays were the better team. That may seem “convenient” to say now following a pair of four-run victories over the Red Sox. But, as my regular clients understand, I always keep an eye on the run differential column. For a while now, Tampa Bay has been well out in front of Boston in that regard. The Rays have outscored their 2021 opponents by 111 runs while Boston is “only” +48. So it’s not a surprise to me that TB is now up by half a game in the AL East. 

I look for the Rays to finish off the sweep Sunday night behind Shane McClanahan. This team is ultra-stingy at home, giving up just 3.2 runs per game and a .209 batting average. When they are scoring like they have been in this series (7 and 9 runs), it’s almost impossible to beat them at Tropicana Field. They have a 33-20 home record, including 14-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. McClanahan, a southpaw, just suffered his first loss of the season at home. But it came in a quality start against the Yankees as he’s now allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive outings. You can count on him getting the job done here. 

While Tampa Bay has won three straight and 8 out of their last 11, Boston is on a four-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by 24 runs. Nick Pivetta has a very misleading 14-6 team start record for the Red Sox as he’s allowed 4+ ER in three consecutive trips to the mound (7.04 ERA, 1.76 WHIP). Now he didn’t allow any hits in 6 ⅔ innings when he last pitched here in Tampa. But he’s struggled in four of his five starts since that time. The Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Atlanta (1:20 ET): The Braves are a team worth monitoring right now. They have the NL East’s best run differential (+50). They are actually the only team in their division with a positive run differential. Saturday’s 8-1 win over Milwaukee moved them into second place and kept them within four games of the first place Mets. Though the Braves are just 27-26 at home, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game here and I see them taking this series. Sunday starter Charlie Morton is unbeaten over his L8 starts. 

Darby Swanson did most of the damage for Atlanta yesterday, hitting his second career grand slam and driving in seven runs overall. It’s not easy putting up eight runs on this Milwaukee pitching staff, but the Braves did it and I think they are capable of another big game at the plate today. Starter Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road for the Brew Crew with a 4.50 ERA and 1.334 WHIP. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and gave up four runs when he faced Atlanta earlier this year. Recently, Anderson has faced a slew of poor opponents. This Braves lineup is much better than the likes of Pittsburgh, KC and Arizona. 

Morton is 5-0 over his L8 starts and is 10-3 for the season. Over those L8 starts, he’s allowed 3 ER or less seven times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee in 2021. The Brewers couldn’t manage much at the plate in yesterday’s game. COVID-19 has rendered Christian Yelich out of the lineup as well as a few others. Atlanta is due to win here as they’ve alternated wins and losses in their L16 games, which is the longest such streak of doing so in franchise history. They have not had a winning record all season, but a win here gets them to .500. It’s time. 8* Atlanta

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): After dropping the series opener on Friday, the Mets bounced back to win a 10-inning affair on Saturday, 5-4. The newly acquired Javy Baez was a big part of the rally for the home team, which ended the Reds’ four-game win streak and Joey Votto’s string of seven straight games with a home run. The NL East leaders now turn to Marcus Stroman, who has pitched MUCH better than his 10-11 team start record would seem to indicate. Look for Stroman to lead the Mets to a win on Sunday. 

Pitching is the primary reason as to why the Mets have been able to hold onto first place for so long. They are giving up just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average in the league. Only two other teams allow fewer than 3.5 rpg at home and no one else gives up fewer than 3.2. Stroman has pitched great, whether he’s at home or on the road, with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the year. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 19 of his 21 starts and when he faced Cincinnati on 7/21, he allowed just one hit in eight scoreless innings. The Mets won that game 7-0. 

The Reds don’t hit as well on the road as they do at home. That’s pretty standard for most teams, but Cincy’s scoring decline when they leave Great American Ballpark is pretty substantial. They go from averaging 5.4 rpg down to 4.4. On the mound, rookie Vladimir Gutierrez is set to get the nod for them on Sunday. He did not fare well against the Mets on 7/19 (gave up six runs) and he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.646 WHIP over his L7 starts. The Mets are the better team, have the better starter and are at home. 8* NY Mets

10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking Cleveland +1.5. It certainly feels as if the Indians’ season is on the brink here as the franchise recently announced a name change (Guardians), manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence and the team fell victim to a late rally last night against the White Sox. It was a game they never trailed by more than a run until the 8th when a HBP made the final score 6-4. The White Sox haven’t been all that good since the All-Star Break, losing 7 of their last 11. I don’t see the Indians doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

The White Sox also got a very fortunate Yoan Moncada HR in the second inning off Cleveland starter Mejia. The ball only went over the fence after two Indians’ outfielders collided on what should have been a routine fly out. Cleveland has been very competitive with the AL Central leaders this season, going 6-6 against them in H2H play. The six runs scored by Chicago last night were the most in any of their L9 games. The last time they faced Triston McKenzie, the Indians starter for Saturday, they struck out 10 times in 5 ⅓ innings. McKenzie is also coming off a solid start where he allowed just two runs in six innings. The team won that game 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay. 

Dallas Keuchel will get the baseball tonight for the home team. He has a 5.73 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season. He also allowed three home runs in his most recent start, which was a 4-3 loss to Kansas City. Given the White Sox recent offensive woes, I just don’t see them being able to win this game by multiple runs. 10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. 

Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. 

Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays

6* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres are looking to erase the memory of earlier this month when they became the first team this season to lose B2B home games to the Rockies. The road has certainly been an adventure for the Rockies this year as they are an awful 11-39 and averaging just 3.1 runs per game. They are on an 8-37 run when priced between +175 and +250 on the road, as they are here, including 2-17 this season. Given last night’s 3-0 shutout, I see no reason why the Padres won’t win again tonight. 

They might only be in third place in their own division, but San Diego is one of the better teams in baseball. Only six teams have a better YTD run differential. It just happens to be unfortunate that they are in the same division as the Giants and Dodgers. But being in the same division as the Rockies is a benefit. No team in the National League has more home victories this year than San Diego’s 35. They should have won by more than three last night, but had two runners thrown out at the plate (in the same inning!). 

Ryan Weathers will look to replicate the strong outing Joe Musgrove gave the Padres on Thursday. Weathers was injured when he faced Colorado back on July 11th (the final day before the All-Star Break) and has only pitched one time since. That was last Saturday when he threw four shutout innings vs. Miami. He should pitch well here. Jon Gray has a 1-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies, who are 22-38 off a loss this season and 2-10 L12 games at San Diego. 6* San Diego

8* Under Twins/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Minnesota is off a series with Detroit where the teams combined for 53 total runs including a slugfest on Wednesday that more closely resembled the kind of score you’d get from Vikings-Lions (17-14). But once again we’ve got an AL team heading to a NL park, which means the loss of the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, Busch Stadium is a place where only 7.8 runs per game are averaged for the season. I see this one going Under as the Twins also have one of their better starters on the mound tonight. 

That starter would be Jose Berrios, who has a 0.75 WHIP over his L3 starts. His 4.05 ERA over the same timeframe is misleading as both runs allowed in his last start were unearned. Berrios has gone at least six innings in four consecutive starts and never allowed more than four hits. He should feast on a National League lineup, and a pretty weak one at that, which could only muster six runs in two games at an AL park (meaning they got to use a DH) earlier this week. 

Like the Twins, the Cardinals had yesterday off. I was in attendance when they lost 7-2 at Cleveland Wednesday afternoon. The Cards’ playoff hopes are pretty slim now, but here they are facing a last place team that has only 19 road wins all year. Look for Wade LeBlanc, who is 3-0 Under at home, to pitch better than expected tonight. The Under is 23-11-3 in St. Louis’ last 37 home games against a team with a losing record. 8* Under Twins/Cardinals

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