The NY Knicks enter this game against lowly Brooklyn off getting clobbered by the Washington Wizards last night, and now are in an emotional letdown state and on tired legs, and also in a look ahead mode, as the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers are on deck. Meanwhile, the Nets, while not inspiring many bettors are looking forward to getting some revenge, against a Knicks side that cruised to a 110-96 victory in a earlier meeting this season. It must be noted that the Knicks are just are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 0-5 ATS L/5 against a side with a below .500 home record.

Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings and I am betting on the host side covering again. Brooklyn has win 4 straight SU at home in this series,

Injury update - NYK Knicks Derrick Rose expected to miss (injury)

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Lakers expect to have guard D'Angelo Russell the catalyst of their offense back on the floor tonight vs the visiting Denver Nuggets. His presence and flow will aid the Lakers into what Im betting will be a strong offensive showing vs a weak Nuggets defense ranked 28th in defensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Denver is currently playing a top tier brand of basketball, that is producing a scorching offensive out put that has been highlighted with six 123+ point out explosions in their L/10 games .With that said I expect Nuggets have a big night again vs a Lakers D, .that is allowing an average of 110.1 ppg on the season and among the leagues bottom feeders and ranked 29th in defensive rating. DENVER is 21-4 OVER vs  lower tier defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season with a combined average of 230.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. These teams played in a 127-121 scorcher here back on Jan 17 and another back and forth affair is a high probability again. ( LAL ranks 7th in pace in the league- Denver ranks 5th in pace)

Over is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 29-11-2 in Lakers last 42 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.Over is 13-2-1 in Nuggets last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Lakers- revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-19 L/66 OVER.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

The Portland Trailblazers enter this game playing some very good basketball, having won 3 of their L/4 games with their only loss coming last time out, by 2 points to the explosive Golden State Warriors 113-111. Now in top form they face a Charlotte side playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and have lost four straight. 

From a head to head perspective the host Blazers , also match-up well according to my own player to player and matchup stats, especially considering the Hornets are expected to play tonight's game without the services of starting center Cody Zeller. It must be noted that Charlotte is just 1-9 SU without Zeller in the lineup this season. Also from a defensive perspective the Blazers have gotten better as the season has progressed, and have come a long way since being ranked dead last in the league entering January. Since than the Blazers in 14 games have allowed 107.1 ppg and have allowed more than 120 points just three times with only 5 teams shooting better than 48% against them. While those numbers may not be championship calibre stats, they are still showing me this team is correcting earlier mistakes , and now on a upward trend and very under rated.

CHARLOTTE is 6-23 ATS L/29 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season.CHARLOTTE is 3-11 ATS L/14 when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Portland is 10-2 L/12 SU in this series. 

Portland to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Phoenix Suns have lost three straight after, back to back series losses to the Denver Nuggets, and will now be primed for a bounce back effort vs the up and down Memphis Grizzlies, a side that is 4-5 SU and just 3-6 ATS in their L/9 games. Both sides may not inspire bettors at the moment, but the Suns here on their own home court have the match-up edge according to my proprietary programs and overall data .

PHOENIX is 31-17 ATS L/50 after a loss by 10 points or more PHOENIX is also 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after a game where they were called for 30 or more fouls, which happened in a 123-112 loss the Denver Nuggets last time out. Suns are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss.Memphis  is 8-19 ATS L/27 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 .Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Phoenix to cover 1 unit reg selection   

Dallas comes off a invigorating win vs the San Antonio Spurs last night , and will now be in a emotional letdown state and on tired legs, vs a Cleveland Cavaliers team, that has something to prove , as many believe they cannot remain champions.  The Cavaliers matchup very well against the Mavs, as was evident in a 128-90 win back on Nov 25 at home. It must be noted that NBA  Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Mavericks - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are just 5-29 ATS L/34 dating back to the 2010/11 season. . (Cleveland smashed Oklahoma City by a 107-91 count last time out ) Dallas HC Carlisle is just is 10-22 ATS in home games revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more.

Cleveland to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 The road team took each of the first two meetings this season, with the Pistons taking a 121-114 win at Boston on Nov. 3 and Im betting the visitor once again has the edge taking points. The Celtics are short handed and despite of   winning the last two games without key performers Al Horford and Avery Bradley at  less than 100% or on the sidelines, Im betting the pride of Boston basketball cannot consistently play top tier hoops.  I also know the Pistons have struggled of late, and looked bad converting just four treys against Miami last time out, in ugly loss,  but now a bounce back performance must be expected. Look for the Pistons big man Andre Drummond to dominate in the paint and for him to be the catalyst behind a competitive Motown performance. Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Detroit to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota has scored 114,104,111,112,103, and 129 points on offense in their L/6 games , and at the same time, allowed 122,101, 108,111,109, and 109 points in back forth take no prisoners style games. Meanwhile, Orlando's porous D, has allowed 100 or more points in 16 of their L/17 games. Meanwhile, the Magic vs swiss cheese  defenses, can do damage as was the case vs the Raptors last time out when they put 114 points on the board, and will be primed to run and gun again in this spot with same season revenge on board. My own projections estimate that Minnesota will score 110 or more points. Which brings this trend into play. ORLANDO is 16-4 OVER  when they allow 110 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 224.9 ppg going on the board .ORLANDO is 12-4 OVER L/16 revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season ( Minnesota beat Orlando 127-107 back Nov 11.)

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota smashed Orlando by a 123-107, back in November in the Magic Kingdom, and now the Magic have revenge on board tonight. Orlando is 6-1 L/7 as visitors in this series and 7-1 SU/ATS wit same season revenge in this series. Orlando is also 9-2 ATS as 7 point or more rod dogs this season. With that said, I'll be recommending we take the dog here tonight. 

ORLANDO is 12-2 ATS L/14 in road games against Northwest division opponents. MINNESOTA is 5-16 ATS L/21 after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-8 ATS L/8 after a blowout win by 15 or more points.)Minny whipped Brooklyn last time out by a 129-109 count.

Orlando to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Miami is in top form after 7 straight wins and in top form, but because of this I'm betting they may over look their opponents. Meanwhile, Brooklyn's horrendous season consistently makes them big underdogs. The lines makers are even now throwing in a premium point or 2 price tag when fading them.  I know the Nets throw alot of clunkers out there, and may not inspire many bettors, but at the moment I am stubbornly sticking to my guns, because of mathematics,  and recommending we back the Nets on a slightly bloated line . Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Mighty Golden State Warriors come into the Moda Center tonight in Portland off a blowout win last night. However, it must be noted that the Dubs are just 1-6 ATS on the road without rest this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers, with revenge on their minds for three straight losses in this series, look like viable underdog bets after  having won three straight games and look to be in a upward momentum trend. 

From a league wide league data base : NBA Road favorites of 10 or more points like the Warriors - a dominant team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are just 27-66 ATS dating back 21 seasons.

Play on Portland to cover 1 unit reg selection

Philadelphia (17-28) has recently playing some good basketball but is coming off a 123-118 loss at home Friday to the Houston Rockets, and won't have their catalyst and  star center Joel Embiid in the lineup tonight, which puts them at a disadvantage. Meanwhile, the Bulls (23-25) have struggled mightily in their past two games and began to criticize each other in postgame interviews and social media accounts.  Bulls HC Hoiberg then benched stars Wade and Butler, and the team lost 100-88 to Miami. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and Needless to say, they have now ignited a fire under their proverbial butts, and Im betting they come out here on fire and get us the cover. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-21 ATS L/30 in road games after playing a home game. Chicago is a perfect 8-0 SU L/8 meetings. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Houston Rockets enter this tilt vs their hosts Indiana  looking very much like the right side here today according to my own power rankings and team and player to player matchup stats. Look for the Rockets high powered offense to get the best of a Indiana defense that allowed more than 106 ppg this season. I know the Rockets D, is nothing to brag about either, but he difference maker will come via the superior offense, which belongs to the Rockets (114.5 ppg).

HOUSTON is 28-19 ATS  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and 24-13 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season,INDIANA is 18-31 ATS L/49 in non-conference games dating back to last season.

Houston Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Brooklyn's horrendous season consistently makes them big underdogs. The lines makers are even now throwing in a premium point or 2 price tag when fading them. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a fine young team , but are hardly a top tier side,  , just yet. However, despite of that , the Wolves are being made double digit favorites here tonight vs a side that actually matches up fairly well against them, as was the case on Nov 8 when the Nets beat the Wolves 119-110 on home court as 4 point dogs. Hey guys I know that the Nets are without Booker and Lopez,  but they look better in my opinion with Justin Hamilton at center, Bogdanovic and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at forward and guards Spencer Dinwiddie and Randy Foye,in the lineup and scored 43 points in the fourth quarter in a loss vs the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.MINNESOTA is  9-21 ATS L/30   in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent and is 19-34 ATS L/53 as a favorite.MINNESOTA is also 19-36 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record dating back to last season and s 9-22 ATS  lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game.

Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Nuggets standout center Nikola Jokic suffered hip injury in his last outing and will miss this game vs the Phoenix Suns. Immediate advantage now goes to the Suns in this matchup in the desert tonight. Jokic won't be easy to replace. The Nuggets star is just  one five players -- along with Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis -- to be averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in January. The Nuggets have lost 17 of 26 when he does not start compared to 11-8 SU when hes in the lineup. 

Phoenix Suns to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Milwaukee's enter this road game against the Celtics having  problems with their  defensive play.  The  Bucks after leading the league earlier this season are now  15th in FG D (48.9 percent) and are 11th in points allowed, giving up 104.5 per game.Meanwhile, the Celtics are running on cylinders offensively, scoring more than 106 points 19 straight times  and will make the Bucks run with them today , or be blown of the court. This scenario I am betting leads toa high scoring affair that eclipses the number.

BOSTON is 9-1 OVER  after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games this season with a combined average od 223.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. MILWAUKEE is 10-2 OVER L/12 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average score of 222.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. MILWAUKEE is 17-4 OVER after playing a road game this season.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

The Grizzlies have been playing mediocre basketball this month losing 6 of 11 games, and are not looking as consistently tenacious as they did  last season. Do not get me wrong their still a hard working group with good chemistry, but tonight  they are fade material against a Portland side , that is  in an upward momentum trend after two straight wins, against the Celtics on the road and Lakers at home. It must also be noted that in their two meetings this year the Blazers matched up well against the Grizz, losing a close affair 88-86 in December, and defeated  them 100-92 in the first meeting back in November.with both games coming on the road . Now with home court advantage, the Blazers look very much like the right side in this spot. 

Blazers HC Stotts is 32-18 ATS L/50 versus poor shooting teams like the Grizzlies- making 43% or less of their shots.MEMPHIS is 10-21 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season.PORTLAND is 16-6 ATS L/22 in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season.Grizzlies are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Two teams playing exceptional ball at the moment, clash to -night in Atlanta as the Hawks host the Washington Wizards. The difference maker  is in how each team has performed in the visitors role and as hosts. Washington has struggled on the road, going 6-14 SU away from the Verizon Center , while Atlanta is 13-9 SU at Philips Arena.This is the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. Atlanta won the first game 114-99 and Washington hung on in a  95-92 victory in the rematch, with each team winning at home.The difference maker tonight comes via home court advantage again. 

ATLANTA is 27-12 ATS L/39 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%)

Play on Atlanta to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Charlotte enters this game having gone under in 7 straight games, thanks to some bloated Totals, and decent defensive efforts. Charlotte a team that ranks 16th in offense in the league enters this game off a hard fought loss to Golden State last time out 113-103, and could easily start a little slowly in an emotional let down state , which will impact their offensive output over the entire game. Meanwhile, the NY Knicks a side that ranks 15th in offensive output, have gone under the Total in 3 straight games, and last time out in Dallas put just 95 points on the board in exhausted looking fashion. Now still on tired legs, playing their 8th game in 12 days, I expect the Knicks offense to be muted again, for a Charlotte side that can play a strong brand of defensive ball. (Charlotte ranks 6th in the NBA in Defensive rating)

NEW YORK is 13-1 UNDER L/14 versus strong offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 200.7 ppg games.CHARLOTTE is 18-4 UNDER L/22 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76%  or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average  of 200.4 ppg getting scored.

 From a league wide NBA data base, it must be noted that teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like NYK - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 50-16 under going back 5 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection  

Minnesota has won three straight games, and getting accolades from the NBA pundits. However, despite of their current  short term success, Im still not sold on them, and feel like they still have a long way to go. In the Wolves last trip to the hardwood, they got a buzzer beater to upend the Suns on the road, by 1 point (112-111) and despite of their hard work were lucky to get that win and will now be in an emotional letdown state . It must be noted the Wolves are,  2-11 ATS  in home games off a road win and a long term 19-44 ATS  off a road win by 3 points or less . Meanwhile, the visiting Indiana Pacers are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the spectrum losing three straight, but according to my own numbers and player to players matchup statistics offer value taking points here.

MINNESOTA is 19-33 ATS L/52 as a favorite . INDIANA is 18-8 ATS L/26 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games.MINNESOTA is 9-23 ATS L/32  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game  and 8-17 ATS L/25 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Mavericks  smashed the Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points on Sunday, and bring momentum in to game  against a NY Knicks side that is exhausted, as they play their 9th game in 14 days. The Knicks did win last time out over Indiana , but they have not won two in a row since Dec 22 of this season.Meanwhile, the Mavericks have won four of their last six and split their last 18 games overall, and are healthy and currently in top form, and my choice tonight as short favorites on  home  court tonight. The Mavs are 16-3 SU L/19 at home in this series. DALLAS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season.Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Houston enters into this game against their hosts Boston losing 5 of their L/8 games, and are not playing at the same level that they did earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Celtics despite of a current 3 game losing streak, are a capable home side, with enough offensive guns ,  as is evident by scoring 103 or more points in 17 straight games,  to keep pace here and get us the cover. I do know that the Celtics played last night but they are one of leagues better conditioned side, as is also evident by a  30-15 ATS when playing on back-to-back days.HOUSTON is  just 19-32 ATS L/51 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection 

This is my Ugly Betty wager of the week. On the surface its a selection that has negatives attached to it, but  my data base, and matchup stats are telling me the home team actually has an edge on this line as underdogs.  I know the Heat take a season-high four-game winning streak into to play the lowly  Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday night, but in contrarian fashion I'll take the home dog, as Im betting on the Heat being in a emotional let down spot after upsetting Golden State last time out 105-102..MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L8 in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots, which happened last time out vs the Warriors. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Timberwolves beat the Suns 98-85 in Phoenix in November, and then won 115-108 in Minneapolis last month. However, despite of these results I now expect a rejuvenated looking Suns side to get some payback.Phoenix has gone 5-5 SU this month, including wins over two division leaders -- San Antonio and Toronto and must not be underestimated at the moment. Yes, I do know that the Suns are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but they are one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA and have covered 13 of their L/17 under those perimeters. 

MINNESOTA is 0-9 ATS L/9 off a win against a division rival, which happened against Denver last time out (111-108)

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Two Eastern Conference rivals the Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics prepare to do battle tonight . These teams have no real love for each other, with Boston getting the upper hand in the most recent conflict winning 117-108 and also won the first meeting . Washington has been red hot, having won 8 of their L/10 and 13 straight at home. Meanwhile, the Celtics had won won 7 of 8 before dropping their two most recent games, but are rested and ready to go after a few days off. The bottom line here from a betting perspective ,  the Celtics current lineup  matchup very well vs  the Wizards according to a head to head system I created 9 years ago, which factors in fatigue, which Washington should be experiencing at the moment, with this being their 6th game in 8 days. WASHINGTON is 9-21 ATS L/30 in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

Celtics are 21-6 ATS L/27 in road games versus upper tier offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game and 12-4 ATS  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Boston is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less this season.

Boston Celtics to cover  1 unit reg selection 

The Raptors are in a slump right now and will play without their leading scorer DeMar Rozen tonight, but still have the depth needed to make a game of this tilt vs San Antonio. After all its not like, the Spurs are completely healthy at the moment, as Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Paul Gasol are all banged up and doubtful to play tonight and if they do play, they will be less than 100%. Look for the Raptors in their current desperate state to come out on fire tonight, and give the visiting Spurs more than they bargained for.

SAN ANTONIO is 4-13 ATS L/17 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season. 

Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bulls and the Magic are both struggling. Both have obvious weaknesses, but my own matchup data suggests that Orlando has the advantage here at home. 

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando.

CHICAGO is 7-15 ATS L/22 when playing against a team with a losing record this season. CHICAGO is 7-21 ATS L/28 against Southeast division opponents.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah enters this home tilt vs Oklahoma City ranked first points allowed, and 30th in pace in the NBA, with a  defense first  and methodical physical system being their cornerstone to success or failure. Meanwhile, the Thunder despite of their reputation are ranked just 16th in offensive rating this season, and a decent 12th in defensive rating and play better defense than many give them credit for. With that said, I expect a lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect, based on their hard data. My own numbers suggest that  based on the above mentioned matchup variables t that we have value being under bettors in this spot, 

The Thunder enter this game going under in 11 straight games with rest, and have gone under in 11 of their L/13 with a line of 211 or less. Meanwhile,  the Jazz have gone under 6 straight times,  as favorites vs .550 opponents or less like the Thunder and have gone under in 8 of the L/9 vs Oklahoma City. Under is 8-1 in Thunder last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 14-4 in Thunder last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Utah.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Thunder - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or lessTO's) are 35-11 UNDER dating back 21 seasons.  NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 liek the Jazz - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 22-4 UNDER dating back 5 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

The Pacers are coming off a three-game road trip that saw them drop the final two games at the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz on Friday and Saturday. Now a little jet lagged, they go against a  team that has seen Seven of their  last 13 losses come by five or fewer points. Most recently the Knicks despite of racking up losses, are still extremely competitive, as their  last three losses came by a total of six points. What Im betting here is that they remain competitive and get us the cover.

 Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Knicks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.INDIANA is 7-16 ATS L/23 when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this game off a heartbreaking OT loss to San Antonio , and will now be in a letdown situation, entering a game against a struggling New Orleans team that will not have them overly motivated. Meanwhile, the Pelicans after being absolutely humiliated vs Brooklyn last time out, allowing 143 points and now  are a team that desires to get back some respect.The Pelicans HC Gentry was livid after that effort and really hammered his team with a verbal tirade. With payback also on the agenda, for a loss earlier this season on the road vs the Cavaliers, Jan 2, ( 90-82) I expect the Pelcians to come out on fire here, and get us the cover.Home underdogs like the Pelicans - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 49-19 ATS dating back 21 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29  in home games versus top tier teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.

New Orleans Pelicans to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a slump,  and will be primed  to kick start  a more positive tone to their struggling ways with a win at home vs a explosive Houston Rockets team , that has shown inconsistencies of late losing 4 of their L/7 SU. MILWAUKEE is 17-6 ATS L/23 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games  and is 36-19 ATS L/54 off 3 or more consecutive road losses.HOUSTON is 19-31 ATS L/50 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points .

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Suns went into NY last night and upset the Knicks, and now play a Raptors team that has looked tired both mentally/phsically in recent games, and is off back to back losses. The Raptors lost 99-91  to the Suns in Phoenix on Dec. 29, and many pundits now are expecting payback, but in my usual contrarian way believe that the Suns actually matchup well here, especially with the Dinos struggling. You don't always get what you want, as the rip from one the Rolling Stones songs suggests. TORONTO is  just 6-16 ATS L/22 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite dating back to last season, and s 19-33 ATS L/52 revenging a same season loss vs opponent. The Suns have covered 7 straight in this series. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Los Angeles Lakers won't have injured D'Angelo Russell for Sunday's game and that is a big blow to the flow of this young team. The Mavericks may not exactly inspire bettors with their recent performances, but, they are more than capable of beating a inexperienced opponent at home in Mark Cuban land, with a key catalyst missing. 

LA LAKERS are 6-19 ATS L/25 vs. good free throw shooting teams like Mavs - making 76% or more of their attempts this season.DALLAS is 16-7 ATS L/23 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season. An interesting anomaly/trend shows the Lakers are 0-6 ATS in Sunday road games, while the Mavericks are perfect 11-0 ATS in their L/11 Sunday home games. 

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Golden State is looking unstoppable at the moment, and that is why in part why the linesmakers have slapped such a big road fav line in this affair vs a lower tier Orlando side, that has looked less than magical this season. However, it must be noted that the Magic have covered 7 of their L/8 as home dogs of 6 points or more and is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog of 10 or more points. Meanwhile,  GOLDEN STATE is just  2-15 ATS L/17 versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. After three big games vs Cleveland ,Oklahoma City and Houston, I will not be surprised if the Dubs, run into a natural letdown spot here, and play down to their opponents. 

Orlando Magic to cover

The Houston Rockets have been suffering through a bit of a slump lately, thanks to some uncharacteristic shooting conversion issues. They lost to Golden State last time out 125-109 and will be primed to rebound. This team is to good to keep down for long, and I expect they will be primed to rebound in this spot vs Memphis side that they have revenge on their minds( Memphis beat the Rockets 110-105 as visitors back on Jan 13, and now its payback time for these visitors. The Grizzlies usually staunch defense has allowed 100 points or more in nine of their last 14 , and are ripe for a shallacking here.

HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS L/12 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season and s 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Houston is 11-1 ATS L/12 after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

Houston Rockets 1 unit reg selection 

Milwaukee after a four game losing streak, will be primed to rebound here vs a Miami Heat team that is just 7-13 SU at home and that they matchup well against according to my own personal matchup statistics data as was the case on Jan 13 in a 116-108 win at home. MILWAUKEE is 24-12 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses dating back to last season. MIAMI is 18-32 ATS L/50 vs top tier  offensive teams like the Bucks - scoring 103+ points/game. HC Kidd of  The Bucks have won 7 of the L/9 meetings in this series and 3 of the L/4 played in Miami. 

Milwaukee to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Brooklyn Nets upset the New Orleans Pelicans by putting 143 points on the board in their last trip to the hardwood, via  uptempo and downtown barrage of shots. BROOKLYN is 11-3 OVER  as an underdog of 10 or more points this season, with a combined average of 232.6 ppg going on the board. The Nets have allowed 101 or more points in 18 straight games, and recently have finally seen their fast take no prisoners style of offensive play, net them 113, 112, 109, an 143 points in their L/4, with the combined average score of those games ringing in at 244.7 ppg, thanks in part to a horrid defense.  Meanwhile, the Hornets offense averages 105.2 ppg this season, and their defense has allowed 103 ppg. Considering the Nets wide open transition game this tilt looks like it will once again be a wide open affair with plenty of points getting scored.  NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Hornets - after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less have gone OVER in 33 o their L/40 games dating back 21 seasons.(The  Hornets did that to the Raptors last time out).

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Indiana has been on a hot run lately, but their recent road trip, and a hard fought come from behind victory last time out against Sacramento will have them on tired legs tonight's, vs a LA Lakers side they will over look.I know the Lakers have dropped five in a row and 21 of their past 26 contests after a 10-10 start, but tonight I very much expect they will make a game out of this, and get us the cover.LA LAKERS are 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses .

INDIANA is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season and are s 1-8 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season and are also 3-11 ATS L/14 in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

 NBA Underdogs like the Lakers - a lower tier  defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team like the Pacers - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots  are 52-22 70% ATS dating back 20 seasons.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors are two of the most explosive teams in the NBA. Thus this matchup has a totals premium attached to it, that makes it a viable wager for under bettors.

 On the flip side, it must also be noted that the Warriors are 1st in the league in defensive rating which is for for players and teams / points allowed per 100 posessions and they are even stingier on the road. With injuries starting to catchup to the Rockets , I dont expect them to be as consistent on offense tonight, and may resort to a more physical approach which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the number. The Rockets beat the Warriors 132-127 in Golden State , but in the past GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 UNDER L/11 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more over the last few seasons , with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 UNDER L/24 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average of 209.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.  HOUSTON is 21-7 UNDER L/28 in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 196.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Warriors/Rockets - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, 30-6 under going back 5 seasons. 

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

The teams the Hawks and the Bulls meet in Atlanta on Friday and then in Chicago next Wednesday.The Hawks, who have a five-game winning streak against the Bulls, won 115-107 at home in the first meeting and matchup very well vs Chicago. The Hawks outrebounded the Bulls 49-30 back in November and will once again be the difference maker.ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS L/37 in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last few seasons. 

CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season losing SU by an average of 12.5 ppg. CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS L/27 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 12-23 ATS L/35  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 Philadelphia enters this game playing some of their best basketball of the season, and are off upsetting the Toronto Raptors last time out, and will now be in a natural let down spot. With that said, I am still not sold on this young 76ers team, and tonight I instead will back the Portland Trail Blazers. I know the Blazers do not inspire alot of bettors, but they are still an explosive team, offensively that can beat any team in this league on any given night and must not be disrespected here despite of some struggles this season. 

Play on Portland to cover

The Raptors may have over looked Philadelphia last time out and suffered a upset loss. Now however, I expect they will be ready to bounce back against the Charlotte Hornets. In that first meeting on Nov. 11, the Raptors came out ahead, 113-111. A big difference -from then  to now is that Raptors did not have free agent  forward/center Jared Sullinger in the lineup -- but on Friday night they will.The 6-foot-9, top tier defensive player Im betting will be the difference maker. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Hornets  - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 5-30 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 5-18 ATS L/23 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more of their attempts this season. CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS L/10 against Atlantic division opponents this season.

Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The LA Clippers enter this game missing two key players from their lineup, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, but still must not be underestimated on their own home floor.  Despite of being short handed, the Clippers face a struggling Minnesota team,  that has lost its last two games on the road against the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks and are 3-6 SU in their last nine trips to the hardwood.Minnesota biggest problems is turnovers, and are tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for 21st in the league heading into Wednesday's  NBA tilts. Not taking care of the ball will be their downfall again tonight. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Denver is playing some pretty good basketball of late, having won three straight, while San Antonio, despite of being a top tier team, has a tendency to let lower tier teams hang around alot longer than necessary, which gives credence to suggesting we take the points with the visitors tonight. The Nuggets are averaging 130.7 points and 33 assists per game during their winning streak, are viable underdogs in this spot. DENVER is 32-18 ATS  as a road underdog dating back to last season.

Nuggets are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Spurs are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games.Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio.

Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Knicks sprung an upset last time out via a 117-106 win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, the Knicks ( are right back at it on Thursday when they host the Washington Wizards, but now they are on tired legs and short handed with  Porzingis, Noah, and Thomas all out. Meanwhile, the Wizards a team that has won 14 of their L/20 SU are fairly healthy, with key catalyst John Wall playing well. It must be noted that  NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like NYK - off an upset win as a road underdog are 115-176 ATS for a 61% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons. Also relevant to this tilt is the fact that Home underdogs like NYK - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 1-25 ATS L/26 dating back 5 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 96%. ( On Nov 17 - Washington defeated NYK by a 119-112 count, for their 7th win in their L/8 tries in this series, which includes 3 straight wins at MSG. 

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Miami Heat are coming off their most impressive underdog victory of the season vs the Houston Rockets (109-103), and the Dallas Mavericks are the hottest they have been all season long winning 3 straight. The Heat have four players competing at a top tier level right now -- point guard Goran Dragic, center Hassan Whiteside and reserves Tyler Johnson and James Johnson and despite of a fairly ugly record are capable of upending a Mavericks team that is just 6-16 SU on the road this season. It must be noted that teams like Dallas where the line is +3 to -3  - off an upset win as a road underdog, a lower tier  team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record like Miami are just 10-32 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.(Dallas 99 Chicago 98 a 4.5 point dog win)

 MIAMI is 10-0 ATS L/10 after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games dating back to last season,( which has just happened)

Mavericks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.avericks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Sacramento and Indiana are two inconsistent sides.  Indiana has been hot of late, but have played poorly on the rod this season losing 15 o 20 games. The Pacers also looked jet legged in their last tilt a 98-95 win vs New Orleans, after coming home after a game in London England and now Im betting they really feel the full effects of it tonight in a Northern California time zone . INDIANA is 0-9 ATS L/9 in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more  of their attempts this season and is 1-8 ATS  in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season. INDIANA is 1-10 ATS L/11 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Golden State enters this game off a very physical affair vs the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out, in a lopsided win, that they looked like they were really up for. Now in a natural letdown spot, I expect they may not be as focused, going up against a Oklahoma City squad they have beaten 4 straight times. Considering the big DD, line favoring the Dubs,  it becomes obvious at least to me, that  the public is now paying a premium when backing the Warriors, thus according to my own numbers giving us value on the underdog line with a capable Thunder squad that is 8-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games(this is the Thunders 4th straight road game). The Thunder lost to the LA Clippers last time out by a 120-98 count but have proven resilient for their betting backers covering 10 of their L/12 after a loss by 10 or more points, and are  14-3 ATS L/17 after allowing 100 or more points in a previous game, and are also 6-1 ATS  off a SU loss.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 ATS L/16 versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season. Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference and 1-6 ATS L/7 with 1 days rest and are just 2-5 ATS in their L/7 at home.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Orlando Magic are playing their final game of their current road trip against a New Orleans Pelicans team that just concluded its longest trip of the season. Teams like the Pelicans a tired side, off an extended trip usually take time to acclimate back into a home environment, and tonight in their first game back in the bayou I will not be surprised by an uninspired performance. With New Orleans  All-Star forward Anthony Davis  falling hard and suffering a hip contusion and sprained thumb last time out he may not be 100% here and to valuable to push into action tonight and if he does suit up limited minutes and fatigue will play a role.  There are no sure bets in the NBA, , so despite of Orlando's perceived weaknesses are still capable of being competitive and possibly pulling off an upset. Especially considering, NEW ORLEANS is 13-24 ATS make  as a favorite dating back to last season. Meanwhile, ORLANDO is 26-11 ATS L/37 in road games in non-conference games.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Hawks have won nine of their last 10, including a 108-107 triumph over the New York Knicks on Monday afternoon, buy in my usual contrarian fashion Im betting on their red hot ways to come to an abrupt end in this road game, as my number suggest the wrong team is favored despite of the Hawks current form.

DETROIT is 22-10 ATS L/32 in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 4-16 ATS L/20 in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite

NBA Road favorites like Atlanta - red hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-50 for a 68% go against ATS conversion rate .

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

Philadelphia has been playing some very competitive basketball of late,   covering 7 of their L/8 , but that will have the talented Raptors very ready for them in this spot. The Raptors are currently in top form having won and covered 4 straight, after blowing a lead and suffering a hurtful loss to the Houston Rockets, and are very dangerous opponents for all comers at the present time. Toronto has won 10 straight meetings in this series, and are 5-0 in their L? visits to the City of Brotherly Love.

TORONTO is 21-9 ATS L/30 versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season and 18-5 ATS versus poor fouling drawing sides shooting an average o less than 24 FTs a game.

Play on the Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection

Youth and inexperience continue to plague the LA Lakers as they are mired in a deep slump after a 10-10 start to their campaign. as they have lost four straight, and 20 of their L/25 tilts. They now go against a Denver side, that has won two straight, averaging a whopping 132.5 ppg on offense and has shown flashes of brilliance this season. It must also be noted that the offensively explosive Nuggets have won 6 straight at Staples vs the Lakers, and must not be underestimated vs a weak defensive team, that allows 110.2 ppg. Denver has covered 19 of their L/26 on the road vs a team like LAL that allows +103 or more ppg.The Nuggets are also 31-18 L/49 ATS as road dogs.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Brooklyn visits Toronto tonight in a game that has seen a pretty hefty total attached to it. I know Brooklyns D, is bad, and that they play a attack orientated game , that shoots from down town on a consistent basis.  I also know the Raptors offense can light defenses up in  big way. But the difference maker comes via a Raptors D, than can slow the best of offenses  down , behind a 20th ranked pace. Add to that Nets wildly inconsistent offense ( Off rating), that ranks 29th in a 30 team league. ( Off rating is used- for players it is points produced per 100 posessions, while for teams it is points scored per 100 possessions. From a mathematical perspective , my own correlated numbers suggest the Total should be closer to 222 to 223.5, thus giving us value on the under.  

From a league wide trends data base it interesting to note that :  NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Raptors - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent  like Brooklyn after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 33-12 to the UNER for a impressive 73% conversion rate for under bettors. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Indiana had a 5 game winning streak snapped last time out vs Denver, by a 140-112 count in London England and will now be ready to rebound at home  where they are 15-5 SU vs a New Orleans side on tired legs, that will be playing the final tilt of a 5 game road trip. These two teams played earlier this season, with the Pelicans beating  the Pacers 102-95 in New Orleans, but it must be noted that the Pelicans have not won in Indiana since the 2010 season, and Im betting the well rested Pacers get their revenge and more importantly get us the cover. INDIANA is 17-6 ATS  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent and s 20-8 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent. INDIANA is 16-6 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days dating back to last season.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The New York Knicks are coming off an emotionally charged win last time out against the Chicago Bulls that they desperately needed, and come into this game on very tired legs after having played 7 games in the L/10 days. Add to that they are expected to be without, key contributor Kristaps Porzingis (Achilles), which puts them at a disadvantage vs a quality side . Meanwhile, Toronto after  playing a lazy game against Brooklyn last time out, but still getting a lopsided victory , will be better prepared to play a full game, after their coach Dwayne Casey was critical of his teams lack of intensity, allowing an inferior Brooklyn team to hang around for to long. Quote: "I commend our guys for finding a way, that's what our league is all about, but you can't play with fire like that and let a team hang around, hang around, hang around. End Quote: Now after lighting a proverbial fuse under his team, I expect they come out here with a top tier effort. 

TORONTO is 10-1 ATS L/11 after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this seasons, which happened in a 132-113 beat-down of Brooklyn.TORONTO is 16-5 ATS L/21 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season, and  22-12 ATS L/34 versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season like NYK.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The New Orleans Pelicans prepare to play their 2nd straight game without the services of their top play all Anthony Davis against the Chicago Bulls tonight. I know the Pelicans won last time out without him in the lineup, but that was against lowly Brooklyn. Tonight despite of the Bulls dealing with a flu that has plagued the team this week, are getting better according to reports and must not be underestimated on their own home floor. It must be noted that from a long term trends data base that NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like New Orleans - off a road win, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just 23-56 ATS for a go against 71% conversion rate. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection 

OklahomaCity enters into this contest against Minnesota having beaten them twice already this season by double digits and maybe over looking their opponents in this spot. That however, I feel would be a mistake vs a side that will be primed to exact some revenge and is in top form after beating a top tier  Houston team last time out . Minnesota is 10-4 ATS hosting this series in and 6-1 ATS when they have a .300 record or better. 

Play on the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The San Antonio Spurs ranked 2nd in D  are off a rare bad defensive game against Milwaukee last time out allowing 109 points in home loss. With that said I expect the Spurs who rank 27th in pace to key on defense vs the young Lakers that rank 20th in offensive rating, behind a fully healthy starting lineup. I am also betting the Spurs will be be methodical in their approach. Meanwhile,  Lakers coach Luke Walton was displeased how his offense is playing, scoring just 87 points against offensively challenged Portland last time out and I feel hes going to very displeased after this tilt with his teams ability to score. These above mentioned situations will result in a combined score that remains on the low side of the number.
 
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 UNDER L/17 in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 193.1 ppg going on the scoreboard and s 31-19 UNDER  offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game with a combined average of 201.6 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

The NY Knicks come into tonights game against  the Chicago Bulls off an embarrassing loss last night to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Knicks were up as much as 17 points in that game, and also blew a late lead and than lost on a buzzer beater. With that said, it must be recognized that pro teams do not like to be embarrassed, and Im sure after some soul searching will come out here focused and ready for some redemption. The Knicks won the first meeting, 117-104, in Chicago on Nov. 4 and matchup well agains the Bulls. 

NEW YORK is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games after a division game over the dating back to last season.

 NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Chicago - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 2-24 ATS. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Oklahoma City is a team that depends far to much one thier one man band, Russel Westbrook. By slowing Westbrook and keying on him, teams are beginning to have some measured successes vs the Thunder. I know Steven Adams and Enes Kanter are fine players and provide alternate options for the Thunder attack, but Westbrook is the key. With that said, I expect the tenacious and never say die Memphs Grizzlies, a team, built to compete with this type of team, will have the upper hand behind the big three of Mike Conley at point guard and Marc Gasol at center and Zach Randolph off the bench. It must be noted Memphis already beat the Thunder (114-80) in their only meetings this season, and I'm betting they will frustrate them again tonight and get us the cover. 

Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.

Memphis to cover  1 unit reg selection 

Both Washington and Boston played last night, so both are a little tired. However, the Celtics are one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA, and are 5-0-1 ATS off a loss and 9-1 ATS in their L/10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest and just  5-15 ATS L/20 after a close win by 3 points or less , which ahppened last night in a come from behind vicotry vs the Chicago Bulls 101-99. 

Washington clobbered the Celtics back in Novemeber at home by a 118-93 count, and now the host Celtics have revenge on board. The Celtics have coverd cover 31 of their L/46 in revenge mode vs Eastern Conference opposition. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. 

Play on Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Philadelphia has won 3 of their L/4 games overall and have covered 4 straight, but Im going against their flow here, as they no longer will have the ability to catch teams napping and not preparing for them properly, because of their current form. With that said, I expect  the slumping and desperae  Knicks come in here wide awake, and ready to get themselves a rare win  vs a young team they can beat. The Knicks have won 4 straight meetings in this series dating back to last season. 

Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home which happened last time out. Knicks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.76ers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Knicks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Philadelphia.

NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Sixrs - off an upset win as a road underdog, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are just 8-32 ATS dating back to the 2011/12 season for a powerful 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. ( Philly beat Brooklyn last time out as dogs)

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Utah   should be a little tired here against the defending champs after a 5 game road trip, which ended in a hard fought 88-79 loss to Memphis last time out. Despite of  the Jazz being healthy and at full strength the Cavaliers are still the superior side, and must be respected laying laying low single digits.

UTAH is 2-10 ATS  as an underdog this season. Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on Cleveland to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Atlanta Hawks are on their best run of the season with 6 straight wins. But with the media frenzy about Atlanta  trades that are going on right now  their  positive flow I am betting will be disrupted  against Brooklyn tonight. 

BROOKLYN is 39-22 ATS  versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game  like Atlanta on the season dating back a few seasons. 

 Road favorites like the Hawks -  red hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a below .500 opponent like Brooklyn are just 22-49 ATS L/71. 

Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Chicago enters this game- having won 3 straight before a loss , last time out to Oklahoma City 109-94. They are also playing tonight without Jimmy Butler, which has directly inflated this line to a point where I feel comfortable, backing the Bulls to cover the bloated number. (Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.)Meanwhile, Washington ,  returns home after a 107-101 win Sunday at Milwaukee. It must be noted that WASHINGTON is 11-26 ATS L/37 after a win by 6 points or less .

Underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Home favorites of 10 or more points the Wizards - an explosive offensive team (102 PPG plus ) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games have covered just 10 of the L/42 games, for a go against 76% conversion rate.

The Knicks lost to the Pelcians by 12 poins on Dec 30th and now have revenge on board. The Pelicans are 0-3 SU/ATS facing revenge this season. I know New Orleans Anthony Davis continues, to score in bunches , but his team continues to play some very inconsistent  hoops, as they rank  21st in the league in scoring average (102.2 ppg) and 19 in opposition scoring (105.6) and once again look like fade material vs a Knicks side that plays their est basketball at home covering 8 of 10 games..

NEW ORLEANS is 10-22 ATS  versus lower tier  teams  like NYK- outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. NEW YORK is 21-12 ATS L/34 versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game and of .NEW YORK is 14-4 ATS  after allowing 110 points.NEW YORK is 12-2 ATS L/14 after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season which happened last time out. 

NBA teams like the Pelicans - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 43-84 ATS for go against 66% conversion rate. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Irrational exuberance is the key phrase here when explaining how the LA media and their fans  are celebrating, after recording a season high in points in a dominating 127-100 rout of the Miami Heat on Friday night.The Lakers won for only fifth time in their last 20 games, so their still a long way from being the team they were a few seasons ago. Don't get me wrong the Lakers are a fine young team, but still have some core issues, especially on defense,  that have to be ironed out. What I am betting tonight however, is that their plans on upward momentum will be curtailed, by a Magic team playing some decent basketball of late despite of losing their L/2 and 4 of their L/5 as was evident when they held Houston to 100 points in offense in a close loss, which was 14 points under the Rockets season average last time out. The Magic already proved they matchup well vs the Lakers when they pounded them 109-90 back on Dec23rd. 

ORLANDO is 31-17 ATS  in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games  and are 12-3 ATS  after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog . LA LAKERS are 4-19 ATS L/23 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more .

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The dangerous Golden State Warriors are off blowing a 24-point third-quarter lead in a 128-119 overtime loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last time out, and will now come in breathing fire when they face their Northern California rivals Sunday night the Sacramento Kings. Im betting the Warriors who rank first in offense and 2nd in pace in the NBA , come out here with all guns blazing in a start to finish offensive fire works exhibition. Meanwhile, the Kings will have no choice to but reciprocate and chase with some offensive freworks of their own or be blown off the court , which will aid in this total combined score eclipsing the number.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Kings last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play OVER 1 uni reg selection 

Toronto matches up well against the visitng Houston Rockets, as was evident when they beat them 115-102 as 4 point dogs on the road back on Nov 23. Now in the rematch here on their own home floor the Raptors have the advantage again, despite of playing last night as they are one of the best conditiond teams in the NBA. (Raptors are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing with no  rest.)

TORONTO is 15-3 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.TORONTO is 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game dating back to last season.Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.Rockets are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Toronto. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Brooklyn Nets get a rare chance for victory when they host the Philadelphia 76ers this Sunday afternoon. I know the Sixers are playing better of late, but Brooklyn according to my own matchup varabilities matches up well , and Im betting will notch the victory.

 The home team took each of the last five in the series. . Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Nets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.76ers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Atlantic.Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 likBrooklyn - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are a long term 106-67 ATS for a 61% conversion rate.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Chicago Bulls have had a very inconsistent season, but their is one consistency they have displayed, and that is an ability to comepte against top tier teams like  the road weary Raptors. It must be noted that the Dinos hasve played only once at home in their previous 7 games, and I'm betting this will effect their play.

The Bulls have beaten the Cavaliers twice this season and San Antonio once, and another upset wont come as a surprise.  Chicago enters Saturday night's game having won two straight games and four of their last six.

CHICAGO is 19-9 ATS L/28 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game dating back to last season. Chicago is a perfect 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 in this series. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most tenacious never say die teams in the league, and despite of losing two straight must be respected when getting double digits, even against explosive top tier teams like tonights opponents the Golden State Warriors. I know the Warriors are out to get some revenge for a lopsided loss to the Grizzlies earlier this season but the truth is , Memphis because of their physicality and aggressive ways can slow a team like the Warriors, and actually matchup well against them.MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, while Golden State  when they are hot, like they are now, shooting 47%  FG or better  in 3 or more consecutive games are just 1-8 ATS L/9, in part because of the premium being asked by the linesmakers in their matchups. I know the Grizzlies have struggled on defense in their last couple of games ( losses) but a league wide NBA trend that shows Home favorites of 10 or more points like the Dubs  gives us value with the Grizz - as an explosive offensive team (102 PPG or more ppg) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are just 10-30 L/40  ATS for a go against conversion rate of 10-30 ATS 75% dating back 5 seasons. 

Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Lakers are young and continue to make mistakes, but their talent level is still exceptional in my humble opinion, and they are dangerous opponents for sub par sides like the Miami Heat. Last night the Lakers, blew a DD, lead and fell apart late vs Portland. But now will be ready to rebound , vs a Heat side off a upset win vs the Kings last time out. It must be noted that NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Miami - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are just 8-31 ATS or a go against betting conversion rate of 80%. 

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS L/10 after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots which happend last time out vs the Kings. 

Play on the LA Lakers 1 unit reg selection

The Knicks enter this game against Milwaukee off losing via a buzzer beater to give the Milwaukee Bucks a 105-104 victory at Madison Square Garden. Now with revenge on their minds they come in here primed to play a top tier brand of basketball. I know the Bucks are hot and the Knicks are not , but from a matchup perspective, look like viable bets getting points in this spot, whether Kristaps Porzingis (achillies) plays or not. 

NBA Road underdogs like the Knicks - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 31-4 ATS for a 87% conversion rate on the line!

Play on the Knicks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The powerful San Antonio Spurs, visit the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City to play the Denver Nuggets this Thursday night. The last time the Spurs visited the Nuggets, they lost by a 102-98 count. Its obvious both sides are operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. However, from a betting perspective, there is value taking, a young group that will be primed to upset a legendary NBA franchise in front of thier own home fans.  Note: The Spurs are also off one of their most dominating efforts of the season, against a strong Toronto team by a 110-82 count , and could easily be a in a letdown spot vs much lesser competition.

Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod tonight getting points. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Suns have won their last three at home, but arrive in Dallas with a six-game road losing streak, and once again look like fade material. vs a Mavs side that is starting to get healthy again, and now has Dirk Nowitizki back in the lineup. It must be noted that Dallas has won four straight meetings in this series.

 .PHOENIX is 0-10 ATS L/10 in road games in January games.DALLAS is 12-1 ATS L/12 after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Mavericks - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are a bankroll expanding 52-21 ATS L/72 for their betting backers for a ppwerful 71% conversion rate.

Dallas to cover 

Detroit's defensive issues have been the main reason why the team has struggled this season with consistency.  Motowns HC Van Gundy has been frustrated by his ability to get his team to stop opponents,  even after implementing some lineup changes. CHARLOTTE is 9-1 ATS L/10 versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game. I also know that Charlottes defense, is nothing special either, but Detroit has not shown an ability to take advantage of porous stop units, covering just 5 of 18 games against sides that allow 103 or more points per game. Detroit has lost 11 of their L/15 games overall, and once again look like weak favorites vs a Honets side, that took out  a tough Oklahoma City team last night by DDs.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Alot is made of how explosive offensively the Golden State Warriors are but, few recognize their defensive abilities, and 1st overall defensive rating in the NBA which is a system for players and teams and points allowed per 100 possessions. In tonight's matchup vs Portland, the lines-makers have put a high total on this matchup because of this , and of course the Portland Blazers run and gun style of basketball. However, Portland is expected to be without offensive catalyst, (injured ankle) Damian Lillard, which Im betting their offensive flow will be slowed, which effect their ability to run and gun, which will effect , their ability to keep up here today and put alot of points on the board, which in turn will effect the total combined average out put.  It must also be noted that the Blazers have only scored more than 95 points in 1 of their L/6 games and will need to be proactive on defense, and also try to slow this game down as much as possible.

 NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Blazers - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog are 56-19 on the under for a 75% conversion rate . 

Play UNDER

Memphis  played a ugly game Tuesday in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers and now I expect this tenacious team will rebound tonight vs the banged up LA Clippers. (MEMPHIS is 19-8 ATS L/27 when playing on back-to-back days)The Grizzlies had won four of their last six before their debacle against the Lakers, but got caught over looking their young opponents. Meanwhile, the Clippers, picked up a rare recent win last time out vs lowly Phoenix, but Im betting things won't be as easy tonight/

LA CLIPPERS are 9-22 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread.MEMPHIS is 23-11 ATS L/34 off a road loss.

Home favorites like the Clippers - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days are a bankroll depletings 38-75 ATS for their betting backers. 

Memphis Grizzlies to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Cavs have a tendency to play down to opponents, and are currently banged up with Kevin Love, LeBron James, and Kyrie Irving  all suffering with different health issues. If any of these players can go they will be less than 100%. Chicago has the edge when evaluating these circumstances, which gives us value on the line. 

CLEVELAND is 18-32 ATS L/50 when playing against a team with a losing record and is 7-18 ATS L/25 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%.)

The Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Charlotte hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder this Wednesday night in a battle that I am betting favors the host team to come out of this with a win and cover. The Thunder have not faired well on the road of late losing 4 of their L/ 7  and were knocked down by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee Bucks  in their last away venture losing  98-94 in the first of three straight road games. I expecting the Hornets to use, the same blueprint that the Bucks used to slow super star Westbrook, in that game , here in this tilt.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-31 ATS L/47  when the line is +3 to -3  and s 3-15 ATS L/18 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games in January games dating back to last season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Hornets - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 104-65 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 61% long-term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are still a little banged up with Gasol hurting his foot last time and and Conely nursing a sore elbow. Many may not have alot of confidence, in the Lakers, but I saw some good basketball from them, in their last trip to the court , as they made the Toronto Raptors work extremely hard to beat them .Look for emerging star G Guard Nick Young to the catalyst behind a Lakers cover. Memphis took a 103-100 win at home over Los Angeles and I am expecting another closely contested battle tonight , with the points proving to be golden.  This from a league wide NBA trend data base : Underdogs Lakers - lower tier  defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots.

Play on the LA  Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Suns are on tired legs after losing to a banged up team in LA last night ( Clippers). T.J. Warren and Eric Bledsoe played 40 plus minutes, and these two key players will Im betting impact their performance tonight vs the visiting Miami Heat. Meanwhile, the Heat are getting healthier as they begin a lengthy road trip with , Goran Dragic   and Dion Waiters  both expected to play Tuesday night. Miami has beaten the Suns 12 straight times, and eight in a row in Phoenix and Im betting that their is high ;possibility it happens, again. However, with that said, taking the points is even a better investment option.
PHOENIX is 12-23 ATS L/35 when playing 8 or more games in 14 days  dating back to last season.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings are two very inconsistent teams. However, with that said, from a matchup perspective, the Nuggets here at home in the Mile High City have the edge according to my own cross reference power rankings data base and SRS numbers (which is a rating system) that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. 

NBA teams- al lower tier defensive team  like the Kings- allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 39-80 ATS for a 67% go against betting conversion rate!

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors go head to head tonight  in battle between top tier teams. Both team leads their divisions. Both these sides can score in bunches, but both are also defensively gifted. The Raptors own the 12th best D in the league , and  are 19th in pace. Meanwhile, the Spurs rank 3rd in the league in points allowed and 27th in pace. When strong sides like this collide, and is not uncommon to see slower physical grinding affairs. in these types of tilts will more often than not result in a much lower scoring contest then lines-makers estimate based on their data.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 Spurs/Raptors - in a game involving 2 top tier teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG have seen the under go 62-20 L/82 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Toronto in their L/40 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 have seen an average of 206.2 ppg scored which gives us value on this total. San Antonio in their L/21 with a total of 200 or more have seen an average of 207.1 ppg scored and in their L/56 as favs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 197.9 ppg goin on the board. The last time these teams met last April a total of 197points went on the board and in their December meetings last season 191 total points were scored. I'm expecting a total combined score in the low 200s this time around.

Play UNDER  

Dallas  has won four of its last eight games, and are playing competitive brand of  basketball and must not be under estimated  with Dirk Nowitizki returning to the lineup, making the this Mavs team a viable betting option , especially on their own home court. Meanwhile, the The Wizards had a three-game winning streak abrutply stopped Monday night, 101-91 at Houston, and remain one game below .500 and have exhibited some conditioning problems this season losing 5 of their L/6 back to back games. Dallas is also 11-1 L/12 SU in this series and get the nod here in this spot.

DALLAS is 11-1 ATS L/12 after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, and 27-10 ATS L/37 after trailing their L/3 games by more than 5 points at the half.

Play on the Mavs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Phoenix is a team with alot of  defensive  defecincies, and despite of allowing their L/2 opponents under 100 points are still a disaster in transition and have allowed an average of 114.7 ppg on the road this season . The Suns had allowed 100 or more points in 15 straight games, dropping to a No. 29 defensive ranking before their two most recent outings. Meanwhile, the Clippers, are without some key players, but still capable of lighting it up offensively, and despite of their current 6 game losing streak must not be underestimated  in their ability to put points on the board. On the flipside the Clippers usually staunch D, has been porous of late, allowing 102 or more points in 11 of their L/13 overall, and will once again be tested tonight.  The Clippers beat the Suns 116-98 back on Oct 31 which sets up this current trend that shows that the Suns are 15-0 OVER L/15 revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season / Phoenix  is also 9-0 OVER L/9 after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog this season, which has just happened.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

 The young inconsistent Bucks are in over their hands full tonight against  Westbrook and Oklahoma City, which has won five of its last six games and is coming off a 114-80 victory Saturday over the Los Angeles Clippers.Oklahoma City's offense has been aided by the return of Victor Oladipo, who was sidelined for the last nine games with a right wrist injury. In previous matchups Oklahoma City has looked superior to the Bucks, as is evident by  sweeping its two meetings with the Bucks last season and have won three in a row against Milwaukee overall.

It must be noted that NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Thunder - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a above .500  record on the season are a bankroll expanding 66% ATS for their backers over a 116 game sample size dating back to the 2011/12 campaign. 

MILWAUKEE is 4-13 ATS L/17 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games dating back to last season.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both Atlanta and San Antonio enter the game on a winning runs. Atlanta has captured two straight victories  after its 105-98 victory over Detroit on Friday. San Antonio has won four straight after smacking down  Portland 110-94 on Friday. This matchup features, Hawks HC Budenholzer a disciple of Popovichs system in San Antonio, where he was an assistant  for 19 seasons. What makes this relevenat to todays matchup, is that he  runs the same system, as the Spurs, but without the same standout talent and chemistry. So in a head to head matchup, guess who has the edge? While anything can happen, when two NBA opponents clash, my own propieatary programs/ player matchup discrepency charts suggest the Spurs win 9 out of 10 times by 5 points or more as visitors or at home. It must be noted Atlanta is 0-6 against the Spurs in Budenholzer's four seasons behind the Hawks bench and the franchsie  has lost 11 straight meetings in this series, and Im betting nothing changes today. From a long term NBA trends chart: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a bankroll expanding 129-66 for a 66% conversion rate for their betting backers (dates back 21 seasons)

SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season, winning by an average 13 ppg, which happened last time out vs Portland 110-94. 

The Clippers come into Saturday's contest having lost five straight games, including Friday's 140-116 setback to the Houston Rockets. The team has struggled because of exhaustion, and an adjustment to some injuries. However, this Clippers team must not be underestimated and still pose a threat to opponents, expecially when they get into desperation mode. I know Oklahoma City is playing fairly well, and have super star Westbrook on their side, but he has a tendency to lose his temper, as is evident by 10 technical fouls so far this season.  Disciplined teams like LAC, know how to aggrevate a guy like this, and make life difficult for him , taking flow away from a team that depends far to much on their one man band. With that said, Im betting on the Clippers getting us the cover in this spot. It must be noted that the L/3 meetings in this series have been decided by 2 points. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers  enter this tilt vs  the Charlotte Hornets winning  eight of their last 10 games . The Cavs swept the two home games against Charlotte in Cleveland this season,and overall the Cavs have won eight of the last nine games in this series since James returned to Cleveland. The Cavs during that winning run have beaten Charlotte by an average of 9.6 points in the eight victories.CHARLOTTE is 1-10 ATS  off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, which has just happened. CLEVELAND is 26-11 ATS L/37 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days .

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Dallas looked tenacious in a come from behind victory vs the LA Lakers last night, and  will be playing a back-to-back for the seventh time this season when it faces the  explosivrWarriors this Friday night. The Mavericks have lost on the second night on all six previous occasions, falling by an average of 14.5 points, but the linesmakers, have decided, that a premium should be added in here because of facing their facing Dubs. Im personally betting this line is slightly bloated, and gives us a slight mathematical edge against the number from an underdog perspective. Also from a league wide NBA trend, it must be noted, that NBA Home favorites like the Warriors - a top tier 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better conversion rate) against a lower tier 3PT defense (36.5% or less), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a lower tier rebounding team (5.5 reb/game or less pg) are just 13-45 ATS for a go against 78% conversion rate. So with that said, lets not underestimate the Mavs abilities to cover this number. With Dallas, playing solid D, lately, and the fact that they are 10-1 ATS L/11 after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games , Im recommending we take the points. Note: Golden State has failed to cover 7 of their L/11 overall. 

Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Denver enters this tilt against lowly Philadelphia playing decent basketball at the moment , winning 5 of their L/7, but Im still not personally sold on them yet, especially from a bettors viewpoint after they failed to cover four straight games. In recent meetings, the Sixer have covered 3 of the L/4 matchups and 2 straight here in Denver, and Im betting they make a game out of this tilt, and get us the cover in the Mile High City. 

DENVER is 5-19 ATS L/24  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS L/26 in road games after playing a game as a road underdog.

Minnesota enters this game against Milwaukee continuing find ways to lose, thanks to an inability to pace themselves.  This has been evident by losing 10 games so far this season, after at some point in those losses leading by 10 or more points. Until they address their conditioning issues, they remain fade material. I know the Bucks also have their own problems, holding leads, but from a player matchup viewpoint have an edge in this matchup. In the Bucks last trip to the hardwood vs Detroit last time out, they pulled off a 119-94 win and have momentum entering this tilt. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Bucks - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 34-9 ATS dating back 20 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 19-33 ATS L/52 in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season like the Bucks and are 1-8 ATS  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.MINNESOTA is 6-21 ATS L/27 in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 dating back to last season.  MILWAUKEE is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games, which has just happened. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Earlier this month the Detroit Pistons smashed  the Atlanta Hawks  121-85. and showed me they matchup well in head to head competitions. I know the Motown crew have not played well of late, and Atlanta has been playing better overall since that last meeting. However, with that said,  their are constants that can not be ignored, which include style and player to player matchup descrepencies. I expect HC  Van Gundy of the Pistons  will  know exactly how to neutralize Atlanta center Dwight Howard, whom he previously coached at Orlando. Also by recommending we take the points with Detroit tonight, Im also betting that the Hawks will be tired after their brutally physical battle with the NY knicks last time out. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS  in home games in December games this season.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Clippers are an elite team , but their dealing with some injury problems at the present time, which hinders thier progression, as is evident by losing four straight games. With G Chris Paul nursing a nagging injury, and playing limited minutes, and JJ Redick sidelined recently because of hamstring problems, and Blake Griffin still out with recurring injury problems, this banged up crew does not have the same bang for a bettors buck as they did earlier this season. Thus going up against a top tier team, like Houston , makes for an opportunity to fade the Clippers. Meanwhile, the Rockets are a team that consisently come out on fire and try to take substanial leads, so they can rest players later in games, which makes them even more dangerous because of how fresh they are in closing out games as well.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Los Angeles enters this game in a funk after having dropped five of its last six and 13 of 15 games in December and once again look like fade material vs a hard working Dallas team , that despite of a ugly road record, have already recorded an away win vs the Lakers this season by a 109-97 count back on Nov8. 

A  lack of solid Defense  has haunted the young Lakers this season, as is evident by ranking 27th in points allowed with 110.3  ppg and last in opponents' field-goal shooting at 47.8 percent before Wednesday's games. The Lakers also rank 25th in turnovers at 15.3 per game and once again I feel they are not sharp and sinking further in the abyss.  I must also be noted that Dallas does their best work vs below .500 oppoents as their 14-1 SU record vs losing sides indicates.

LA LAKERS are 0-8 ATS L/8 off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog and are are 3-17 ATS L/20 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. Dallas has won 5 straight meetings in LA. 

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Grizzlies own a solid 20-14 SU record despite of playing without the injured Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Chandler Parsons and Vince Carter, thanks a tremendous work ethic and top tier defense. Even  despite of a recent  4-6 record the last 10 games, the Grizz still have shown exceptional overall resiliency and character especially on  defense as is evident by, allowing only 98.1 points per game -- fourth best in the league. Yes, the Grizz have struggled a little defensively of late, but are still very solid and can easily return to top form , when motivated, like they will be tonight. Now in comes, the streaking Oklahoma City Thunder who are on a 4 game winiing run. At first glance the line, because of this looks odd, because of all the media attention super star Wesbrook and the Thunder are getting. But the linesmakers make very few errors , and as can been seen have shaded in the home team as short favorites and rightly so in my betting opinion. MEMPHIS is 11-1 ATS L/11 in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more, which happened last time out. OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.

Play on Memphis to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two top tier teams the Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors, go head to head in east /west battle this Wednesday night. Both teams can put points up in a hurry but, both must not be under rated when its comes to their abilities on defense. 

Toronto ranked 9th in points allowed and 20th in pace. Golden State is 1st in defensive rating, (teams  and players points allowed per 100 possessions) Also because of the Warriors take no prisoners offensive attack, their games almost always seem to have a totals premium attached to them , which has been evident by them going under the total in 9 of their L/10 games. My own numbers suggest this total is also slightly bloated when considering the matchup profiles of both teams and setting aside straight up mathematical data.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (Golden St/Toronto) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG 62-18 UNDER dating back five seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

GOLDEN STATE is 24-7 UNDER L/31 after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better, with a combined average of 211.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. Golden State HC Kerr Kerr is 23-11 UNDER L/34 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 209 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER

Chicago Bulls  are in a deep funk and find themselves buried deeply in skid that has seen them lose 6 of their L/7 games overall. They now face a Brooklyn team, that might seem like easy opponent to get back into the win column against. That might be true, in alot of ways, but I personally believe this line is bloated considering both sides current form. Recently the Nets played three straight games, against Golden State, Toronto and Cleveland, and after playing that very high level of competition went out and beat a decent Charlotte side last time out.  Teams like the Nets searching for a winning identity, will benefit greatly from going against top tier teams repeatedly , and than when playing struggling teams will find the sledding much easier. So what Im betting on today, is for Brooklyn to make a game out and s they use their recent experiences from battling the leagues elite to their benefit in this tilt.

From a long term league trends perspective it must be noted that NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points like the Bulls - exhausted team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 63-110 ATS for a go against betting conversion rate of 64%.

CHICAGO is 16-29 ATS L/45 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection