Memphis gets their  star point guard Ja Morant  back after a  25-game suspension and Im betting his team feels his energy here tonight in what Im betting will be a cover in the Bayou. Yes I know the Grizz have lost 5 straight including a road loss vs the Thunder last time out. But Jenkins  seems to rally his troops in road games off a road loss by 10 points or more as the coach of MEMPHIS as is evident by covering 18 of this L/24 bounce back efforts.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 15-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

Dallas is not easily intimidated and have won 9 of their L/13 road games this season and must not be underestimated in their ability to compete in this Mile High showdown against the Nuggets. I know Denver beat the Mavs earlier this season , but HC Kidd always seems to make the adjustments needed in  avenging rematches as is evident by. a 34-20 ATS record revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of Dallas he average ppg  clicking in at +2.2 . 

DALLAS is 33-16 ATS L/47 in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher .

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games are 92-56 ATS L/5 seasons for. a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Pacers after a nice in tournament run are in a bit of funk right now as is evident by three straight losses, all on the road by DDs. Now back home I expect they will be primed to upset the visiting LA Clippers who have procured 7 straight wins but just one of them on the road vs the short handed  Utah Jazz. The Clippers have done sub optimal work on the road this season, losing 7 of 11 and have lost their L/2 visits here. 

Carlisle is 20-7 ATS in home games after a non-conference game as the coach of INDIANA.

NBA team (INDIANA) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 36-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 23-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Golden State after a strong performance and win last night, look vulnerable in this pot pay on tired legs. Note:  The Warriors have not won back to back games in almost 6 weeks and if they get the victory tonight Im betting it wont come easily.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-34 ATS  as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 4-16 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 2-18 ATS  in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after allowing 115 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 130 points or more are 10-21 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the Blazers

The Celtics beat up on Orlando group by DDs, the day before yesterday for their 13th straight home win.Sunday marks the third meeting of the season between the teams. The Magic beat Boston 113-96 as hosts on Nov. 24 and must not be underestimated in their ability to bounce back here with a competitive performance.ORLANDO is 31-17 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Bean-town. 

Play on Orlando to cover

Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren,, along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, are dangerous foes for all comers including the Denver Nuggets. Yes Denver has played well lately, but are 12-24 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Advantage Thunder taking points. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-6 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.Daigneault is 32-17 ATS  in road games off a road loss as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.Daigneault is 67-43 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder

With the offensive fire power that the Pacers have there are is a very good chance here they stay within the offered underdog number. INDIANA is 17-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) over the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 8-23 ATS L/30 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game . 

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - an explosive offensive team (118 or more  PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game are 30-8 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Im sure the Bucks are looking at this like a defacto night off vs the the league worst team. Meanwhile, the Pistons will play with absolutely no pressure as they cant sink any lower than their current form. When the Pistons visited Milwaukee earlier this season they lost by a 120-118 count, but covered as 12.5 underdogs. Rinse and repeat in play here this evening. 

NBA team (DETROIT) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 59-18 ATS L/5 seasons and a perfect 8-0 ATS this season. 

Play on Detroit  to cover

Houston has been almost  unbeatable at home this season but are just 1-8 SU on the road  and are being over rated here in the favorites role.I know they have beaten the Grizzlies twice this year  both times at home  but  it must be noted that  MEMPHIS is 23-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons and Im sure knowing how well HC Jenkins can adjust to opponents give me credence in backing a Grizzlies side that has won their L/4 meetings at home in this series.  Jenkins 29-16 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of MEMPHIS.MEMPHIS is 9-0 ATS  in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover

This game is a rematch of a 105-98 Kings home victory in the early stages of the NBA in-season tournament last month. Entering this game  the  Brooklyn, the Kings were  smashed  119-99 on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back Tuesday. The Kings took out the Brooklyn Nets in the first game of the consecutive tilts , but looked very tired in the followup. Now rejuvenated and going up against a side they matchup well against Im betting on a rebound performance. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-4 ATS  in home games after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons.

Brown is 35-18 ATS  vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more  of their attempts in all games he has coached

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Sacramento to cover

Sacramento is 4-0 SU L/4 at home in this series and are 7-1 SU L/8 overall meetings. 

Utah played last night but they are well conditioned and offer value vs a weak favorite that has lost 4 straight games. UTAH is 42-23 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

PORTLAND is 0-8 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 45-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover

Utah has not had a great season, but they have won their L/6 home games and are never easy to face here in the high altitudes of  Salt Lake City. I know the Jazz have struggle of late, but it must be noted that they are Hardy is 15-3 ATS   after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of UTAH. I know NYK is a quality side, but they have lost 3 of their L/4 games and are in my opinion being over rated here against the Jazz tonight. Note: Jazz top scorer Markkanen has missed the past eight games for Utah, but he's been ramping up his participation in recent practices and is on the verge of a return, possibly even tonight. 

UTAH is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less on the opening line  over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 17-5 ATS  as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 43-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jazz to cover

The Rockets home-court  11 game winning streak may not be in jeopardy tonight vs the  the inconsistent  Memphis Grizzlies, but the line in my humble opinion is just a little bit over done. by around 1 possession giving us an edge here to cover according to my projections. The Grizzlies have covered 6 of their L/9 road games, and have won 4 of those games SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -2.8 in their L/11 away tilts this season. 

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 8-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

Watching the Milwaukee Bucks play of late, has me wondering if this team is currently over rated. They honestly look slow and old and their super star the  Greek Freak looks a little slow ( knee issues) as does the team overall. With that said, Im betting the run and gun Pacers offer up some issues for the Bucks giving us an edge with the underdog. Note: The Pacers have won and covered 6 of their !0 road games this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.1. 

From a SRS perspective : Milwaukee ranks 12 with a 2,77 mark, while Indiana ranks 11th with a 2.89 , even with home ciurt advantage factored in we still according to my projections have a one possession edge.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Miami is one of those teams that reserves their best hoops for top tier teams, but against sub par opponents like Charlotte they have a tendency of living up to the lines makers projections as is evident by their  3-15 ATS mark  when playing against a below .500  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. Add to that  MIAMI is 2-15 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons and you get the picture  These teams played a close game here a couple od days ago with the Heat pulling off a 2 points win and Im now betting on another hard battle that favors the underdog cashing .

Spoelstra is 6-17 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival as the coach of MIAMI with the average ppg diff clicking in at just 0.2 in those 23 tilts.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Charlotte to cover 

Monday marked the Raptors' first regulation defeat in team history when scoring 130 points.All five Toronto starters scored in double figures for the seventh time this season. Im now betting on immediate regression off a demoralizing result. Toronto has now failed to win or cover in four straight. 

 NBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 45-20 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 13-54 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover

Cleveland lost 104-94 to the Orlando Magic Monday, failing to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The linemakers expect a tired side to play against one of the leagues top teams,  the Boston Celtics and thats why we have a nice double digit line to bet into with the viable underdog. Considering the Cavs are one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA Im betting we get the cover in this spot with a talented group on the rise. 

CLEVELAND is 26-13 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 7-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

My projections estimate a combined score in the 230s which gives us a one to two possession advantage to the under. The Lakers are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive hoops, as was evident by holding down the run and gun Indiana Pacers to just 109 points to win the in season tournament. Previous to that game the Lakers held the Pelicans to 89 points , and have allowed an average of just 106.3 ppg in their L/5 overall. After their big win last time out, Im also expecting the Lakers to be in a bit of an emotional letdown state, and to be maybe a little less aggressive offensively which adds up to a lower scoring affair against another side that likes to run and gun.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LAKERS/DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-7 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

After winning the NBA in season tournament Im betting on some let down regression here effecting the Lakers overall energy levels giving the home side an advantage .

Dallas has won 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series straight up. 

NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover

The Thunder are coming off a 138-136 overtime win over Golden State on Friday where they forced 29 turnovers, leading to 35 points and even though they are on a couple days rest Im betting they feel a natural letdown from that affair here tonight vs a Jazz side Im sure their over looking . I know the Jazz are without leading scorer Lauri Markkanen , but are capable of being competitive here tonight as they have had sufficient time to adjust to his absence. 

UTAH is 17-3 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.Hardy is 41-22 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of UTAH. UTAH is 30-17 ATS  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (UTAH) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, first half of the season are 99-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jazz

 Los Angeles after smothering the Pelicans last time out ( allowing them just 89 points in. a big time victory)  will  once again be ready  to control an Indiana offense that has been the best in the NBA all season. Indiana leads the league with a 128.4 points-per-game average, but the senior laden Lakers Im betting have a plan to slow down the Pacers, and this will result in a much lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers are expecting. The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+15.40 Units / 29% ROI)

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for. a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Kings are off a  127-117 loss  to the visiting New Orleans Pelicans on Monday during the in-season tournament quarterfinals, while the Suns were beaten by a  106-103 count to the host Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday in another  quarterfinal matchup. From a matchup perspective the Kings from my viewpoint stand a better chance of a bounce back, knowing that HC Brown is 17-4 ATS off a home loss as the coach of SACRAMENTO and. 11-2 ATS in road games vs. division opponents as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

Meanwhile,  ,Vogel is 1-10 ATS   versus good shooting teams -like the Kings that convert 46% or better  of their shots as the coach of PHOENIX. The Suns have failed to cover in 4 straight. 

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are just 5-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-12 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Kings are 3-1 SU L/4 vs Suns.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Detroit is mired in a nasty slump to start their season losing 17 of 19 games, but Im not worried about that as a pretext to me taking them to cover. After-all Im in the business of picking advantageous situations against what the linesmkaers are offering. In this situation the Magic despite of being a team on the rise are a little banged up on the injury front, and have lost two straight while the Pistons, despite of their ugly numbers have covered at a 5-1-1 ATS rate in their L/7 games as underdogs of 9 or more points. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

Philadelphia is on extended rest , as they have not played since Dec 1. There is a such a thing as too much time off, and thus getting back into game flow is not an easy transition. Im betting the  rust could cause a lack of continuity  for the 76ers and for an Atlanta side on two days rest to come out here in give the 76ers all they can handle. I know the Hawks have not been viable bets of late, failing to cover in 5 straight and 9 of their L/10 but 6 of those games were as favorites and 5 of those losses were by 2 points or less. 

ATLANTA is 21-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Snyder in 16 games  against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of ATLANTA has ween a ppg diff of -6.2.   Snyder in 14 games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of ATLANTA has seen a average ppg diff of -5 ppg. Snyder in 102 games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game in all games he has in his carrer has seen an average ppf diff of -5. .

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

No way do I see Milwaukee allowing the Pacers to run and gun here in comfortable fashion, and instead I expect the Bucks to become very physical in their attempt to slow down this free wheeling group.Yes, I know the numbers attached to this tilt, favor a very high scoring affair, but in my humble opinion the lines-makers have over adjusted towards a public enticing Total.  This Im betting contributes to a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. MILWAUKEE is 29-16 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games are 44-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

After two hard fought games and losses vs New Orleans and Boston the Sixers are on tired legs and in a bit of a letdown situation, which bodes well for us covering this offering with the home dog Washington Wizards. Also the 76ers after. fast start to their campaign have failed to win 6 of their L/10 and are being a little over rated here in this situation. Note: Washington has covered 4 of their L/6 and get my support getting points in this spot play. 

NBA  Home underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 44-18 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7  or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 5-25 L/27 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

The Magic had a 9 game win streak snapped last time out and now Im betting on a bounce back effort vs the Cleveland Cavs here tonight. Quote:"The last couple of games, we've been slipping," Magic forward Franz Wagner said, per the Orlando Sentinel. "That's how we set the tone during the game, that's how we get out and run, and get easy points in the transition. "We got to make sure we get back to that." End Quote: I concerted effort from this very well conditioned and focused Magic side is the bet Im recommending. ORLANDO is 31-15 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

Lakers future HOFer James helped the Lakers to a 4-0 record in group-stage play of the inaugural event and the top seed in the West heading into the win-and-advance quarterfinals and Im betting he will be the difference maker here tonight her vs a Suns side that the Lakers have dominated of late winning 4 straight meetings. The Lakers opened their in-season tournament group-stage schedule with a 122-119 victory at Phoenix on Nov. 10. Los Angeles and according to my projections a rinse and repeart situation is once again in play. Note: PHOENIX is 1-9 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. PHOENIX is also just  1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Winners in nine of their past 11 tilts, the Bucks will host the Knicks in an NBA in-season tournament quarterfinal battle on Tuesday. Milwaukee has won their L/8 home games and are 7-1 L/8 overall vs the Knicks and get the nod again here this Tuesday night.

MILWAUKEE is 18-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (NEW YORK) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 19-46  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 19-43 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Boston destroyed Indiana by a 155-014 count when they met back in November as their side open  style of play back fired on them against a team with a far superior D, and and even more lethal balanced offense. The Pacers despite of looking for revenge, Im betting dont have what it takes to beat the Celtics and more importantly even cover the number. Mazzulla is 23-7 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams -  allowing a shooting pct defense of 48% or more  as the coach of BOSTON with a average ppg diff of +10.3 ppg. 

Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (INDIANA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win by 10 points or more are 3-39 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppf per game diff clicking in at -11.5 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. 

Play on Boston to cover

Dallas looked exhausted last night in a 108-94 loss to Memphis and now in back to back games will be even more tired and less likely to be in the shape to run and gun with this sometimes explosive visiting  Oklahoma City side. Recently the Mavs have been paying  better attention to D, and as a result have not been as proficient offensively, but it was a problem they needed address. Because of thier better defensive efforts they have seen 4 of their L/5 fail to eclipse the total. Here tonight on tired legs and going against  a Thunder side that can light the scoreboard up in a hurry another more disciplined D plan should be in place, which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.4 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 41-26 UNDER  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS/OKLAHOMA CITY ) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 218.2 ppg scored.

Play under

Miami took the first game of this back to back series by a 142-132 count, but Im betting they wont come out of this one so easily vs this run and gun Pacers side. That was a big output for the Heat and now regression is expected. However, the Pacers offense never seems to slow down as they are the highest scoring team in the NBA. Advantage Pacers. 

MIAMI is 17-29 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 20-32 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites (MIAMI) - after a combined score of 255 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 19-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Orlando is on a roll having won 10 straight games, and have the young legs and ambition not to let up here in Brooklyn tonight. Yes, the Magic played last night in a 130-125 win last night  but they are one of the NBAs best conditioned teams and deserve respect here as underdogs. Note: ORLANDO is 13-2 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

ORLANDO is 13-4 ATS  in all games this season.ORLANDO is 10-1 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

BROOKLYN is 23-44 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 22-10 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Orlando to cover

The Nuggets are expected to be almost fully healthy tonight as Jokic , and Murray are expected to play . The Nuggets have dominated their opposition when healthy and are 7-1 when Murray plays. I know the suns have played well, but are just 1-8 ATS versus good shooting teams like Denver  - making 46% or more  of their shots this season. The Suns couldn't stop the Nuggets in last years play offs and Im betting nothing changes today.

Play on Nuggets to cover

 Both of these teams rank in the top five in offensive rating and should easily both top the 109-114 point plateau according to my projections. BOSTON is 12-1 OVER  in home games when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 33-20 OVER  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 228.1 ppg. 

Play over

Orlando took out Washington by a 139 -120 count in the first of these back to back games in this series, but I saw enough in the first game to believe that the Wizards can be more competitive in rebound mode. NBA team (WASHINGTON) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 55-18 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wizards to cover

Philadelphia was hitting on all cylinders in their last game vs the Lakers, and Im betting with that momentum on their sides will continue to push forward here tonight vs a streaky  Pelicans side that has lost 2 straight SU/ATS. 

Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the NBA in SRS with 10.18 mark while, ranks 18th with a 0.45. Considering this the linesmakers in my humble opinion are over estimating the 76ers regression probabilities off a huge game . 

PHILADELPHIA is 26-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS   on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 23-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

This is an important tournament game between division rivals , and Im betting it will be a hard fought physical affair that keeps this combined score to the low side of the offered total. 

SACRAMENTO is 25-14 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE L/33 vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 229.8 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 63-30 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 229.9 ppg. 

Play under

Houston has struggled with explosive offensive sides like Dallas recently especially on the road where they are here tonight. Advantage Dallas.HOUSTON is 1-12 ATS ) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. I know Houston has been an ATM machine for their backs of late, but now the market has adjusted and laying under 5 at home with the Mavericks according to my projections is viable investment option. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 4-38 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DALLAS) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 47-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Minnesota has won 12 of its first 16 games to jump to the top of the conference standings. That includes a 2-1 record in West Group C of the in-season tournament. The Wolves have played their best hoops at home this season winning 7 of 8 games, with the average ppg diff at more than 13 points. I know Oklahoma State has played well, also but my matchup power ranking suggest the Wolves are the superior side by 5+ points as hosts.

The Wolves rank 3rd in the NBA in SRS with 7.70 mark while the Thunder are ranked 4th with a 7.69 mark. When taking into consideration the home court edge where the Wolves are almost always in top form we have a line as mentioned above that should be closer to 5, thus giving us value laying lumber here with the home fav. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

MINNESOTA is 10-0 ATS in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons.MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 3-31 L/5 seasons for. a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff registering at +11 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Atlanta can run and gun with anyone in the NBA and despite of tnheir defensive failures recently are side that must be respected getting points especially the way their star Trae Young is shooting the ball.Young's most recent top teir  offensive effort  came on Sunday in a 113-103 loss to the Celtics, when he connected on a  team-high 33 points and added seven assists in the second game of a back-to-back.Meanwhile, the market was slow to catchup with Cleveland as this season began , but now they have caught up and are starting to over adjust giving us value with this underdog selection. Advantage Atlanta. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

 .Atlanta has won five of seven games over Cleveland, dating to the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

Denver is 11-6 on the season but just 3-6 on the road, but Im betting those numbers will turn around to upside in Nuggets away games, as they are just to talented to not get into a groove even away from the Mile High City. DENVER is 8-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons and according to my power rankings have an edge here taking points. I know the Nuggets played last night, but they are a well conditioned side, that will be ready to play here tonight in LA even without Jamal Murray in the lineup. 

The Clippers rank 9th (3.62) in /SRS while the Cliipers ranks 13th with a 1.31 mark. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

NBA  team vs the money line (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in November games are 40-6 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

New Orleans enters this game having gone under in their L/4 trips to the hardwood while Utah has gone under 3 straight times. I know New Orleans has been explicit about picking up their defensive play and you can see it in their play, and here tonight in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City Im betting on an even more stringent defensive effort , as their 5th game in a week. Advantage under.

NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER  versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 33-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average score of 215.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-21 UNDER L/5 seasons with a combined average score of 227 ppg going on the score board. 

Play under

Brooklyn is on tired legs as they play their 2nd back to back games this season and are vulnerable .The Nets earned a 109-107 win in Chicago during an in-season tournament game on Nov. 3 and Im betting on another close game here with the points to be golden. 

BROOKLYN is 11-24 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 4-15 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 21-37 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.Vaughn is 11-25 ATSin home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1996.

Play on Chicago to cover

Knicks have looked a little lethargic offensively in back to back games . The first tgame came at the end of a exhausting 5 game road trip and the 2nd was when they played their first game at home after that for-mentioned away rodeo. Now acclimated to home cooking and well rested Im betting on the Knicks will be  primed and motivated  to play at an optimal level, against a Phoenix Suns squad on a 5 game win streak.  NEW YORK is 8-0 ATS  after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

The Suns beat Memphis last time out by DDs,  but this is not a favorable spot from a historical standpoint for the Suns as Vogel is 12-26 ATS (- in road games off a road win by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.

Key injury updates: Beals still out for Suns and Durant(foot) is questionable tonight and if he plays is less than 100%. 

PHOENIX is 26-44 ATS L/70 in road games vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game . 

NBA Favorites on the opening line  of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 35-11 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover

Dallas 10-5  is the fresher team here entering this tilt against a LA Clippers (6-8)  side that played last night. The Mavs rank 15th with. a+0.83 rating  in the NBA in SRS while the Clippers, are ranked 21st with a -0.01 rating. Factoring in exhaustion adn performance  levels the 
Mavs have the edge. SRS: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. The last time these teams played on No. 11 the Mavs came a away with a 144-126 victory at home. Note:LA CLIPPERS are 7-17 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -5. 

Play on Dallas cover

The Golden State Warriors have struggled out of the gate this season and now have an opportunity to take on their frustrations out on a San Antonio  team  on a 10 game losing run and  that they have beaten up pretty easily in recent meetings with 37,31, 15 points deficit victories in their L/3 meetings. I know Golden State has not covered any of their 7 home games this season, but all good and bad runs must come to an end, and thats what Im betting on here with the DD fav. Note:GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 ATS  in home games off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out in Phoenix. GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-25 ATS  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 16-31 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 12-28 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road loss against a division rival, on Friday nights are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

Miami has played some decent defensive ball of late , while winning at Cleveland and Chicago. But from a historical standpoint this has not been a good omen for their betting backers as they are  2-11 ATS  after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, NYK after a extensive 5 game road trip looked flat in tired in their final game of the trip with a 117-110 loss to Minnesota. However, they have now been off since Nov 20th and with extensive rest and back on home court Im betting on a big effort from the Knicks. . NEW YORK is 10-1 ATS  after scoring 100 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Note: Underdogs vs the money line (MIAMI) - off a road win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 6-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.  Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 35-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate with the average ppg diff registering at +11.5 which qualities on this ATS offering. 

  MIAMI is 18-32 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.( Heat beat Cleveland 129-96 last time out)

NBA Road underdogs (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 18-43 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rte for bettors. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover

 The Mavericks are scoring 122.8 points a game, which is second-most in the league, in wide open run and gun fashion, and that makes them viable options against a Lakers side that is due for offensive  regression after last nights 131 output vs the Jazz. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing with 2 days rest are 95-84 L/5 ATS for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  team vs the money line (DALLAS) - an explosive offensive team (118  or more PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game are 25-6 L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate with a average ppf diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

DALLAS is 3-0 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Timberwolves have won 10 of their first 13 games to jump to the top of the Western Conference standings and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the Philadelphia 76ers here tonight with home court advantage on their sides. The Wolves rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency which is important in game that features the 76ers top ranked offensive efficiency. Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins  against  the New Orleans Pelicans and New York Knicks, and it has won nine of its last 10 trips to the hardwood and have momentum on their sides, vs a Philadelphia side on a short rest after taking the Cleveland Cavaliers last night in a tilt that went to OT in a   122-119 loss at home.  Now exhausted and off a red eye to get here the 76ers are at a disadvantage. 

Finch is 13-3 ATS   in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more as the coach of MINNESOTA with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.9. 

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 38-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

The last four meetings between the Lakers and Jazz have all eclipsed this total with a combined average of 253.25 oog going on the board. My own projections for this contest come in the high 230s to the  low 240s giving us a significant edge to the over. Utah has consistently played run and gun ball with 7 of their L/9 going over the offered number  and Im betting they drag the Lakers into a wide open tilt here today that goes over the digits.Hardy is 10-1 OVER  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 239.3 ppg scored.Ham in 36 games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of LA LAKERS has seen a. combined average  of 237.1 ppg go on the board.UTAH in its L/57  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 237.2 ppg scored.UTAH L/22 against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 242 ppg scored. 

Play over

The Pelicans have been an inconsistent commodity this season, but they have recent wins against top tier opponents  Denver, and Dallas, and 1 point loss to Minnesota and must be respect as underdogs here at home tonight vs the Sacramento Kings. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SACRAMENTO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less) are 13-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Bucks are off a physical high octane battle against Dallas that they won by a 132-125 count  last time out and could easily be vulnerable to being a letdown spot here vs Washington on the road tonight. I know Milwaukee has looked unstoppable of late, but with all the running and gunning their doing , their proverbial tank is probably on empty and it  should not come as a surprise that they could also be  over looking a  lower tier opponent. Note:MILWAUKEE in their L/34   after scoring 120 points or more 3 straight games have seen a average ppg diff clicking in at -0.2. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 116-182 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

The Jazz,  host the Suns again on Sunday night in Salt Lake City, after a hard fought battle that saw them lose 131-128 to Phoenix in an NBA in-season tournament game. Now here at home, in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City where  alot of teams have  have some problems playing will see the Jazz get revenge or more importantly get us the cover. 

UTAH is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after a combined score of 255 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Utah to cover

The Dallas Mavericks ranked 4th in pace  have for most of the season run and gun at a high octane rating and Im sure nothing will change here except their oppositions ability to slow them down and grind away with more physical type of game plan. Im looking for a much more grinding type of affair between two strong teams, and a score that remains on the low side of the offered total. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 230s giving a 2 possession plus edge on the number to the under.  MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in their L/33 in home games versus good shooting teams - making  46% or better  of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 29-8 UNDER L/37 in home games off a road blowout win by 20 points or more with a combined average score of 202.8 ppg scored.(Beat Charlotte last time out 130-99)

 DALLAS   in their L/33  non-conference games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 229.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS/ MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)  are 43-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 223.2 ppg. 

NBA eams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more 2 straight games are 39-13 L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score registering at 227.4 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score of 225.6 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 37-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 229.2 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 222.8 ppg scored.

Play under

The Philadelphia 76ers will be primed to snap  a two-game skid and a 1-3 ATS run when they face the host Atlanta Hawks in the NBA in-season tournament on Friday night. In the two losses tge 76ers looked tired but now with extra day of rest Im betting they will be good to go. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS  after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Hawks are off a  116-114 home loss to the New York Knicks on Wednesday and are on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights. Also key star Trae Youngs wife just had a baby so Im sure life has been hectic for him and it could show on the court tonight at some juncture. 

ATLANTA is 16-29 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons

PHILADELPHIA is 48-32 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 18-34 ATS   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after allowing 115 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 16-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Oklahoma City Thunder (7-4; 8-3 ATS) have gone 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five trips to the hardwood  and have momentum on their sides.  Meanwhile, the Warriors are on a four game losing run and are fade material in their current form especially with the explosive  Curry and tough man Green out of the lineup. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS   revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 3-13 ATS  vs. sub pard rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in November games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clikcing in at +14.4. 

Play on Thunder to cover

MILWAUKEE is 1-9 ATS  in all games this season and have failed to cover 7 straight games overall. Their marker value has been consistently over rated by the lines-makers and tonight looks to be no different against what looks to be a tenacious hardworking group of Raptors. Key injury Note: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Calf) is not 100% despite of being expected to play tonight.

Raptors are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series. 

The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (-19.55 Units / -17% ROI) dating back to last season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (118 PPG or more) are 35-5 L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.6.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

The Celtics have revenge on board for a loss they suffered to the Sixers last week by a 106-103 count, and will be primed for pay back here tonight in the rematch. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Sixers  play again tonight after seeing their eight-game winning streak snapped last night vs Indiana . Now on tired legs against a talented and  redemption minded squad Im betting the 76ers  are in trouble. 

BOSTON is 21-9 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 15-3 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 points or more 2 straight games are 23-5 L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking  at +13.6. 

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 6-40 L/5 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.6. 

Play on Boston to cover

Lakers are off two straight wins and look to be in sync entering this tilt vs the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. I know the Grizzlies are off a win vs the Clippers on Sunday, but Im not impressed by the Clippers so far this season, so Im betting that the 2-8  bad news Bears revert back to the inconsistent type of play they have exhibited this season. MEMPHIS is 1-18 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 10-28 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an sub par defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team 14.5 TO's or less) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 TO's or more )are 24-2 L/27 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 which esaily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

The Knicks enter this game giving up 103.2 per outing (second in NBA) and here against the explosive Celtics Im betting they will be very physical and tenacious  which will in turn take away the home teams positive flow. Based on a short list of early season results the line may not seem out of place, but after watching the Knicks on a few occasions this seasons it become obvious this a proud hard core type of team, that deserves alot more respect than they are getting tonight. 

NEW YORK is 32-18 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons. NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS  in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NEW YORK is 10-1 ATS   after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NEW YORK is 29-16 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in November games are 38-4 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (BOSTON) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 19-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Knicks  to cover

The New Orleans Pelicans will be primed  to bounce back from a 0-3 road trip when they host the Mavericks on Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Mavs are off a hard fought win vs conference rivals the Clippers last time out in what turned into a physical game and could easily be in a emotional let down state here in the Bayou tonight making them vulnerable to a hungry home side. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS  in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 ATS in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.Green is 15-4 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

This  will be the final stop on a four-game road trip for Toronto nd Im betting they will be on tired legs in a nasty home environment against a superior side the Celtics. BOSTON is 21-9 ATS  in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons which is the case here tonight. Note: against this type of team in a cover situation you need to be able to make charity stripe conversion something  Toronto isa not doing well as they  rank last in the NBA in free-throw percentage at 69.6 percent.

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in November games are 37-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.5 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

The Lakers have lost two straight and have allowed 120 or more points in 3 of their L/4 and in 5 road games this season have allowed an average of 221.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Suns have averaged 120.3 ppg at home this season while allowing 117 ppg. After the recent negative results from the Lakers Im betting on a very aggressive take no prisoners effort from them , and for the Suns to reciprocate with some offense fireworks themselves and for this offered total to be eclipsed.

 
Ham is 8-0 OVER  off 2 or more consecutive road losses as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 240.8 ppg scored. 

The suns have gone over in 5 of their L/6 overall

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or less TO's) are 60-25 over L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Detroit had seven players sidelined by injuries or illness on Monday when it faced a fully healthy Golden State squad and still played cohesively for 90% of that game but faded late losing by 11. Im betting their young legs will keep them in this game as well, vs a Milwaukee side that Im sure will be over looking them and or showing less than desirable  motivation, especially after taking part in a emotional thriller in Brooklyn last time out as they barley walked away with a  129-125 victory. Advantage Motown on the spread. 

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 4-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pistons to cover

Philadelphia is in top form entering this home game against the Celtics as is evident by having won 5 straight games, with four straight coming by DDs. Meanwhile, the Celtics started strong with 5 straight victories , but that was suddenly snapped last time out vs Minnesota. This is obviously going to be a hard fought game between two eastern conference rivals , and for me that means taking points with the side honing home court advantage. 

PHILADELPHIA is 20-5 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 23-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in November games are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better ) are 15-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

 The Sixers will try to land their fifth consecutive victory when they host the Washington Wizards on Monday. Because of thier lofty run they are also being over rated here on this line making the underdog a viable proposition. I know the Wizards have lost 5 of 6 but now in desperation mode against a top tier opponent I expect them to put forward a big effort as they search for early season redemption and momentum. 

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - team that had a winning record last season, after 4 or more consecutive wins are 9-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 60% or higher are 26-3 L/27 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play on Washington to cover

After a grueling Mile High city trip and loss at Denver  Im betting the Mavs are in letdown situation and  also gassed  after their high altitude track meet. Meanwhile, Charlotte has shown some flashes of brilliance vs Atlanta in. opening season win and a victory vs Indiana as underdogs on the road last time out and are according to my early season power rankings a value underdog option this Sunday. DALLAS is 11-23 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 11-26 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 8-21 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 4-27 SU/ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate with the average point per game diff clicking in at -5 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering by DDs.  

Charlotte is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 overall vs Dallas.

Play on Charlotte to cover

Spurs are off a two big upset wins vs the Phoenix Suns and will no be in an emotional letdown spot vs a hungry Toronto team that is playing much better than their record may indicate  NBA  Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog 1-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clikcing in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

The Lakers started their campaign with a 119-107 road loss in Denver on Oct. 24 before dropping a 132-127 overtime tilt in Sacramento  a few days later. Both their road games have ended in defeat and here against a strong/young looking group of Magic Im betting they will also have their hands are full. I know the Magic have a few injuries, but are deeper than many pundits might appreciate. note: Paolo Banchero is healthy and when hes 100% can be a game changers much like he was in Orlandos win at Utah last time out when he poured down 30 points and 8 rebounds. 

ORLANDO is 21-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

ORLANDO is 35-22 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (104 or less PPG), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 3-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate. 

Play on the Magic to cover 

Sometimes afternoon games have a tendency to see teams start slowly which effects offensive production . But according to my projections this line is still off and a tad to low. PHOENIX is 23-12 OVER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored.

Nurse is 57-34 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 36-23 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots 52-15 OVER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the over

The Memphis Grizzlies are the lone winless team in the NBA as they start a two-game set in Portland with a 0-5 record. the linesmkaers combination of disrespect for the Blazers and the desperation factor attached to this number make for what I am betting is a viable underdog selection. Note:MEMPHIS is 0-9 ATS  in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-14 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 12-24 ATS  in road games versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-22 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdogs (PORTLAND) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 64-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Portland is 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on Portland Blazers to cover

Dallas has won all 4 of their games this season so far while their opponents tonight the Nuggets had their 4 game win streak end last time out with a DD loss at Minnesota. Im betting the Nuggets here at home off a ugly loss will come out here like gang busters and take down the Dallas Mavericks in the high altitudes of Denver where it is never easy for visitors to play. Malone is 34-17 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DENVER.

DENVER is 11-2 ATS  off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 18-8 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 41-22 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

DALLAS is 3-12 ATS in November games over the last 2 seasons. Kidd is 20-45 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins in all games he has coached. 

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - off a road loss against a division rival, on Friday nights are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

My projections estimate a total combined score that will reach the low 220s which gives us at least a 1 /2 possession edge on this offered number to the under. 

MIAMI in their L/12 when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 struggling  teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. 

Play under

Spurs a few days ago, upset the Suns after the Suns had taken a big lead before melting down and losing. Now angry and in redemption mode will be ready for a huge bounce back effort. When teams play their opponent a second time in a span of three days in the regular season and are road favorites after losing the last game at home, they are: 20-8 SU at home. Also Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 41-16 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

SAN ANTONIO is 1-10 ATS   after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Suns to cover 

The Grizzlies are having problems scoring,  thanks in part the absence  of  Morant,  Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles), Luke Kennard (concussion) and Santi Aldama (ankle). The cohesiveness is just not there and that will once again hamper their point production here in Salt Lake City tonight . The Grizzlies is well aware of this and will be focused on good transitional D instead of trying to run and gun which will effect this total to the under. 

MEMPHIS is 15-4 UNDER against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored, 

MEMPHIS is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

MEMPHIS in their L/12 games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  50%  or worse, has seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored, MEMPHIS is 14-3 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving 2 struggling teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-2 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Chicago enters this road game against the Mavs off a upset win in Indiana last time out and have momentum entering this tilt . Note:CHICAGO is 21-9 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile, Dallas is off a DD win vs a banged up Memphis side, which was their third straight win to being the season. It must be noted however, that DALLAS is 1-12 ATS L/13 after scoring 120 points or more 3 straight games so regression wont come as a surprise.DALLAS is  also 1-9 ATS  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons which is the case.

HC Kidd  has had issues against teams like the Bulls in the past going  2-12 ATS  versus excellent pressure defensive teams -forcing 17 or more turnovers/game in all games he has coached .

DALLAS is 9-23 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 7-21 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Wolves have started out their campaign exhibiting very good defensive posture in transition, and Im betting they will continue that type of play here on the road vs a team that they know like to run and gun. Minnesota has allowed 97 and 90 points in their 2 games , and are more than capable of slowing down a Atlanta side, that Im betting is on tired legs playing their 3rd game in 4 night and that  will be in regression mode after a big upset win on the road vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out.  It must also be noted that the Hawks HC coach Quinn Snyder, wants to see better defense from his team and has made that clear multiple times in press conferences . With that said, Im betting on a much more defensive affair here than the linesmkaers expect. 

MINNESOTA is 19-9 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 17-7 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 44-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with a combined 227.4 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER

The Hawks are off a big underdog road win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time and I expect they will be in a letdown situation here, and are also on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 4 games.  ATLANTA is 7-20 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile,Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert make Minnesota a contender in the Western Conference and must be respected here as short favs . 

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 42-122 L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 73-19 L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in +5.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

Play on Minnesota to cover

I know both these sides have been involved in high scoring games in both times they have been on the court thus far this season, but my own projections based on coaching tendencies and the type of usual hoops implemented Im betting on a more conservative affair. 

Lue is 34-19 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. (Clippers lost in Utah last time out as favs118-120 )

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a home win, sub par team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 27-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Blazers top offensive threat Anfernee Simons will not be in the lineup tonight for the Blazers, and that  in part is why we are getting a good number to bet into. Meanwhile, after two hard fought road games vs the Bucks and the Raptors the 76ers return home on tired legs and may not have that extra edge they will need for all out performance. With the negative factor of Harden (who wants out of Philly hanging over the team, Im betting that also effects the Sixers over all play from a subconscious level)  Advantage Blazers as they make the needed adjustment to Simons being out. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season are 18-45 ATS L/227 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover

The Cavaliers last time out  looked very much like they were  headed for a second straight win to start the season leading Oklahoma City Thunder 100-90 with 2:37 to play on Friday night before falling apart late. Now in redemption mode Im betting on the Cavs to be ready to rebound in a big way. I know the Pacers are more rested and off impressive victory scoring 143 points  , but my early season power ranking still suggest the Cavs are superior  more motivated side playing with home court advantage.  Also major letdown regression from that huge offensive production must be expected against a side that will be focused on playing a much stronger defensive game after the last debacle. 

CLEVELAND is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 14-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Raptors are going to be tired tonight after losing a 104-103 battle vs Chicago last night giving the Philadelphia 76ers an advantage.Also as far as the medias big deal about Harden not accompanying his team , is actually a blessing in disguise  as he is a distraction and creates alot of negative energy when he is court-side. Talented player but just causes to much drama. Coaches like Nurse are a down to business type of coach, and Im sure  he wont miss his presence . 

Raptors are expected to be without OG Anunoby and if he plays will be less than 100%. 

PHILADELPHIA is 38-23 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  in home games after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons

NBA  Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 6-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -10.4. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

I know Chicago played a grueling OT game last night, but are one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA. Yes, I know the Motown crew pulled off an upset , last time out against Charlotte and in their first game of the season played the Miami Heat very tough losing by just one point , but according to my early season power rankings do not matchup well against the Bulls. This is the home opener for the Pistons , and they will be motivated but Im betting that wont be enough. Chicago has won 15 consecutive meetings in this series vs Motown, including a sweep of the last four season series qnd nothing should change today even if the oftenr injured  Zach Lavine does not play. 

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (DETROIT) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog are 10-42 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to win/cover

The Warriors cruised to a 120-100 win at Sacramento in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series last season to eliminate the third-seeded Kings and end their surprisingly strong season.But Im betting the revenge card is over blown here and that the Warriors after a ugly game 1 performance of the current season will be ready to make sure of a better performance against a familiar foe that they matchup well against. 

The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games at home (-24.90 Units / -30% ROI)

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or more of their free throws, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 20-9 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Golden State to cover

After a lopsided season-opening loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Utah Jazz will be primed to bounce back against the Los Angeles Clippers this Friday night. Meanwhile, the Clippers because of a strong effort in their opener are now bring over rated in a place where they have not thrived of late (Salt Lake City). 

UTAH is 30-12 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  UTAH is 33-14 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 19-6 ATS   when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Utah is 4-0 SU/ATS  L/4 vs the Clippers at home . 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

After a deflating season-opening loss that quickly prompted a players-only meeting, the Chicago Bulls will aim to regroup on Friday against the visiting Toronto Raptors. Like Ive said many times before pros dont like to be embarrassed. Remember these individuals have huge egos and have been stars at every level they have ever played at , and now with their egos bruised will be ready to come out with a take no prisoners type of performance. Thats what Im betting the Bulls do tonight and the unfortunate recipients of their redemption tour will be the Raptors. 

TORONTO is 3-15 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.TORONTO is 10-24 ATS  after allowing 100 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

CHICAGO is 35-19 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Chicago is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

NBA  team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 33-14 L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Chicago to cover

Both these teams are off narrow defeats in their opening games of the current campaign, but I like the odds of the home side Hawks bouncing back. After playing the Celtics in their opener in a game that looked to be hard fought and grueling Im betting the Knicks are in a vulnerable spot here in Atlanta .NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - off a road loss against a division rival, on Friday nights are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets go on the road for the first time in the 2023-24 season Friday when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies. Off course the line makers are giving the Nuggets a great deal of respect in this spot play, but the Grizzlies must not be underestimated .I know the Grizz looked bad in their opening loss, to New Orleans  but this group has proved resilient in the past off a loss vs a division opponent.  MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS   off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

I  also know the Grizzlies will be without  the suspended Ja Morant  but the  the Grizzlies still  retained several key contributors from last year's playoff squad, including Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. and now have Marcus Smart in Morant's position and should form themselves into a cohesive unit as this season progresses.  

MEMPHIS is also 15-3 ATS  as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 14-2 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons..MEMPHIS is 9-0 ATS  in home games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home vs the Denver Nuggets. 

Play on Memphis to cover

My projections estimate that the Pistons will score between 103 and 108 points. Note: CHARLOTTE is 13-0 UNDER when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored. Im also projecting that Charlotte will score between 109 and 114 points. DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER   when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.6 ppg scored.

Advantage to the under based on my projections 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 26-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored.

Play under

The Cavs finished the preseason at just 1-3 and are little banged up with Allen and Garland not 100% with nagging injuries. The Cavs were sub .500 team on the road last season, and dont deserve respect as road favs against a fairly talented Nets team playing in front of their home town fans on opening night. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 8-28 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

Atlanta is fairly healthy rolling into the season with the only injured player being Wesley Matthews who will be out with a mild right calf strain. Meanwhile, The Charlotte Hornets released their injury report Tuesday evening and shows guards Cody Martin (left knee soreness), James Bouknight (left knee), and Frank Ntilikina (tibia fracture) have been ruled out for Wednesday's regular season home opener against the Atlanta Hawks. Bryce McGowens (left ankle) is listed as doubtful. Advantage Hawks. 

The Hornets finished last in the Southeast Division and posted the fourth-worst record (27-55) in the NBA last season and Im betting the upgrades will not help them all that much. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) - lower tier performing team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 6-22 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate with the ppg diff clicking in at +7.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Hawks to cover 

Im betting Houston is being under rated here -but with  guard Jalen Green, forward Jabari Smith Jr. and center Alperen Sengun in the mix must not be underestimated in their ability to cover and even pull of the upset. I know the consensus is that the Magic have rebuilt a fine young roster, but their inconsistency remains a concern.

Note: Orlando won just 44.4% of the games last season in which it was the moneyline favorite (8-10).

NBA home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses are 6-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

The road team has won the last 2 most recent meetings in this series. 

Houston Rockets to cover 

I cannot see alot of defense being played by the Suns this season with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal running and gunning with all out wreck-less abandon. Im betting your going to need to score at a high rate to compete with the Suns, and tonight thats what Im betting the capable Golden state offense will be up to doing. My own projections estimate both these sides will score 214 or more points . Note:PHOENIX is 23-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 246.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 31-4 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 248.9 ppg scored. 

Golden State had an average implied point total of 120.1 last season, which is 3.1 points higher than its implied total in Tuesday’s game (117).Last season, Golden State scored more than 117 points in a game 50 times.The 116.1-point average implied total last season for Phoenix is 1.1 more points than the team’s 115-point implied total in this matchup.

PHOENIX is 16-5 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

Its obvious the Miami Heat are in full regression mode, after a great play off run. Truth is the Heat were a very average team during this campaign, while their opponents the Nuggets have been for the most part very consistent and a top tier group all season long. This particular matchup has proven to me that the Nuggets are the superior side at both ends of the court, and the game 2 hiccup the Nuggets suffered was basically a rust issue after a long lay off leading into these Finals. Now the fresher of both sides, and the more talented side will Im betting get the job, done here at home in front of what will be a lively crowd with the NBA championship on the line.  DENVER is 22-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.Malone is 30-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games as the coach of DENVER. Nuggets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest. MIAMI is 19-31 ATS after playing a home game this season. Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Denver to cover 

Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play over

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Then came game 3 where the rust was completely off as the Nuggets dominated a Heat side that is now suffering regression after a strong play off run.   Still the fresher of both sides and according to my power rankings the superior side  , the Nuggets get the nod again as road favs in game 4.  From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.13 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 4 victory out and  grab the cover in the process.

MIAMI is 10-22 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

DENVER is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season. DENVER is 29-12 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - averaging 45 or less rebounds/game on the season, after a game being out-rebounded by opponent by 20 or more are 14-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Now with this being their 3rd game off extended rest, Im betting we will see the Nuggets at their optimal setting, and with the added incentive of a bounce back performance look like very viable short favs on the road today according to my overall power rankings. From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.34 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 3 victory out.

NBA  team (DENVER) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Miami won 111-108)

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 44-12 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver has won and covered their L/3 most recent visits to Miami. 

Play on Denver Nuggets to win/cover

When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER   off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored.  Malone is 15-5 OVER  off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MIAMI is 20-11 OVER  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play over