The Suns finished off a 2-2 road trip with a 115-119 loss at Houston on Saturday but  pushed the  Rockets to the wire and are gaining my respect with their play and showing an up -trend in my power rankings  . The Suns' five took a 100-98 victory in Minnesota earlier in the season, and matchup well here vs a side that is playing back to back games and  their 4th straight road game and now on tired legs and vulnerable to a down effort.

Injury update:  Coach Monty Williams was hopeful following Sunday's practice that key player Baynes could return Monday, and the Suns have listed Baynes questionable as he deals with a strained calf. Dario Saric (back) and Mikal Bridges (finger) are probable.

The Timberwolves are 1-16 ATS L/17 on the road after they shot over 50% from the field which was the case vs the Lakers in a loss last night.

Timberwolves are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

NBA Teams  like the Suns are 16-1 ATS /SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 13.47 ppg. NBA  Teams are 10-0 ATS/SU with rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 16.6 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, playing with 2 days rest are 50-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Phoenix to cover 

Both these teams are off playing last night, with the Raptors suffering their 3rd straight loss in Philadelphia , while the Bulls lost in OT in a hard fought affair at Miami that will now have them in a letdown spot. The more desperate and more motivated team is the defending league champion Raptors, and Im backing them here tonight in place ( Chicago ) where they have won and covered their L/5 visits which includes a 104-86 win on Oct 26th here in Chicago. 

NBA Teams like the Bulls are 7-31 ATS/5-33 SU  as a home dog off a game as a dog in which they had overtime. NBA Teams are 19-2 ATS /19-2 SU as a road favorite off a loss in which their opponent had overtime.NBA Teams are 16-1 ATS /SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home covering by more than 14.45 pig. NBA Teams are 12-0-1 ATS /13-0 SU as a road favorite with no rest off a loss in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. 

The Bulls are 1-13 ATS /SU as a home dog after they had more than 30 fouls.(Which was the case in Miami last night)

CHICAGO is 19-34 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Sacramento has the 26th ranked offensive output in the league and the slowest pace, and here agains the explosive Rockets, they will be ready to make this a grinder that helps keep this on the low side of the total.

The Kings are 0-14 UNDER as a dog with no rest off a win after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored.

The Rockets are 0-15-3 UNDER L/18 with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP with a combined average of 215.7 ppg. 

NBA  Teams are 4-24 UNDER as a favorite with rest off a win facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game with a combined  average of 217.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's are 29-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

LATE STEAM ( UNDER)

The Lakers are red hot entering this home game against Minnesota as they  are off a three-game road  swing that eneded with a 136-113 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday for their 11th consecutive road win.The Lakers have won three in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off 3 straight losses, and on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. The way the Lakers are running over opponents its actually not a hard decision to lay this many points with them here at home. 

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games are 1-27 SU L/28 times with -13 ppg average diff. 

NBA Home favorites  (LA LAKERS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 33-2 L/35 opportunities with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg.

NBA Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 45-17 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Miami is off to the best home start (9-0) in franchise history and is 10 games over .500 overall and take on a Chicago team that has won back to back games.  I know the Bulls are playing well right now but they just do not matchup well vs the Heat. The Heat rank 9th in the league in SRS at 4.84 while the Bulls rank 24th at  -4.85 . Using my power rankings index and home court advantage of the Heat are closer to -12 favs here when factoring in both sides overall performance charts, giving us value with Miami according to my projections. 

Note:SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg. 

Play on Miami to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be looking to improve 12-0 at home when they host the defending-champion Toronto Raptors (15-6 SU) on Sunday. In contrarian fashion Im betting that the Sixers will not easily get cover here today vs a motivated talented and experienced team that looks to end a 2 game losing streak. QUOTE:"You don't overreact when you're 15-4, and you don't overreact when you're now 15-6," HC Nurse said. "Just get back going to work and taking them as they come, because you're probably gonna win quite a few games if you put the effort forward, and you're gonna slip up every now and then because that's basketball." END QUOTE.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-26 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Toronto has won 5 straight meetings in this series dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 94-50 ATS L/23 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Atlanta's most-recent game   against Brooklyn, saw them losing 130-118 on Wednesday night at home. The Hawks run a very fast paced offensive system, but its their defence that suffers most, as they rank 28th in the league in ppg allowed at 117.8 ppg. Much of their defensive ugliness can be attributed to carelessness especially on the road where they average18.4 turnovers per away game. Im betting nothing changes tonight here in Charlotte , in what will be an affair that goes over the set total. Note:My projections estimate both sides will score +105 points. ATLANTA is 9-0 OVER   where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 245 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

ATLANTA is 10-0 OVER  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 241 ppg going on the board.

Borrego is 32-13 OVER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or more) 75-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Denver is returning to the New York area after absorbing a 108-95 loss in Boston Friday night and now knowing they have to play better offensively as Im now betting they will be more aggressive with their attack in transition against a Brooklyn side that plays a efficient style of offensive hoops behind a top 10 pace and a lower tier D ranked 20th in ppg allowed at 113.4 ppg. With that said Im betting a combined score  that eclipses this Totals offering. 

Play OVER 

 The Houston  Rockets behind the leagues No.2 offence and 2nd fastest pace has averaged 128.2 points in its last six games and Im betting will have another   big effort tonight vs a 22nd ranked ppg allowed D. Meanwhile, the Suns, have allowed an average of 123.3 in their last six. But they've squeezed a pair of wins into the half-dozen, including a 139-132 overtime triumph at New Orleans on Thursday as their offence continues to show some flashes of explosiveness behind the 5th ranked offensive ppg side in the league. Im betting the Suns will do more damage here tonight against Houstons 23d ranked ppg allowed  D, in what should be a chase the leader type of affair. 

Play OVER 

The Portland Trail Blazers are enjoying their best stretch of the season and the play of shooting guard CJ McCollum has been a prime reason for the success.

McCollum has matched a career best by scoring 20 or more points in 10 straight games and Im betting he will be key to this Blazers team covering here at home tonight vs a tired Lakers team playing tbeir 3rd road game in 4 nights, With the last two coming in the high altitudes of Utah and Denver, both of which were conclusive wins that took alot of energy to achieve.. Note: Road favorites (LA LAKERS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 19-47 ATSL/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

I know the Blazers are also playing their 3rd game in 4 night but being at home has its advantages. PORTLAND is 17-7 ATS  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 17-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasonsLA LAKERS are 8-18 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS (as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Portland to cover 

This game is based on my output offensive projection numbers which estimate that both these teams will eclipse the 105+ point plateau. Note: PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 240.9 ppg were scored.

The Trailblazers are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a dog off a 10+ point home win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 229.1 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), in December games are 44-17 OVER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Eastern Conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks are red hot and on a  13-game winning streak as hey enter this home matchup Friday against the Los Angeles Clippers, a side that have nine victories in their last 10 games.

MILWAUKEE is 33-17 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

Budenholzer is 11-2 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 28-3 L/23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The  consistent Denver Nuggets began their four-game East Coast trip in dominating fashion Thursday, blowing out the New York Knicks by 37 points and enter into this game with momentum .The Nuggets must not be underestimated despite of this being a back to back situation against a top tier Boston Celtics side. Note:Denver HC Malone is 25-11 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days in all games he has coached. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Golden State has lost four games in a row and seven of the past eight, but the one victory during that stretch was a 104-90 decision over the Bulls . This Bulls team is a side the young Warriors matchup well against and deserve our backing here on a plus line. 

CHICAGO is 18-32 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons

CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

The Thunder are a deliberate defense first team trying to find a groove. Oklahoma City ranks 22nd in ppg offensive output,  12 th in ppg allowed, and 23rd in pace. Meanwhile, the Wolves like to run and gun, but will play down to another teams pace, and with top scorers Wiggins and Towns not playing or seeing limited action and less than 100% their offensive flow will be effected tonight which favors a lower scoring totals output. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-0 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

The Thunder have gone under in 6 of their L/7  as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

Both these teams are struggling , but the more desperate and fresher side New Orleans is on a 6 game losing streak, and now have an opponent that my power rankings suggest they can handle as was the case when they went into Phoenix Nov 21st and came out with a 124-121 victory.Im betting on a  Rinse and repeat situation tonight in the Bayou vs a Suns side on tired legs after playing last night in Orlando. 

Suns are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten game are 14-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 78-130 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

With Raptors getting healthy and Kyle Lowry back in the lineup and active the Raptors are a dangerous side to face at home where they have lost only one game this season, and that was in OT. Meanwhile, the Rockets despite of being explosive offensively are ranked 25th in ppg allowed and that just wont get it done 4 out of 5 times against a top tier defensive team like the Raptors that ranked 5th in defensive efficiency in the league and have been hard on opposing teams top scorers like Harden. 

Houston lost last time out in a high scoring affair, and are just is 3-12 ATS after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers Im betting will grab their fifth straight win when they visit the banged-up Washington Wizards on Thursday night.Philadelphia has won eight of its last nine tilts overall and are off a 103-94 win over the Utah Jazz at the Wells Fargo Center. We all know the Wizards run and gun with wreckless abandon, and because of that their defence is always vulnerable. Tonight Im betting the Sixers 4th ranked D, will slow the Wizards flow down which will put the Wizards at a further disadvantage as the Sixers capable offence does more than enough damage to get us the cover.  

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

After playing all out basketball in a win vs the Denver Nuggets in the High altitudes of Mile High city last night Im betting on the Lakers showing signs of exhaustion, and for a regression performance tonight vs a Utah Jazz team that plays their best hoops at home as is evident by their 8-1 record. Note:  Denver at 5,280 feet, while Salt Lake City is only slightly lower at 4,226 feet. So lung capacity and energy levels for the visitors will be at low levels. 

The Jazz are 16-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest coming off a loss.

NBA ll teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games ARE 4-27  SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 87% conversion rate . 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/23 seasons for ago against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

With the off season the departures of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Jerami Grant  the Thunder continue to search for consistency. Tonight  after winning 3 of their L/4 overall Im betting the rested Thunder  find their form again vs a Pacers side that is on tired legs and that they have revenge against for a loss they suffered in Indiana earlier this season!  OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 31-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 9-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

The Heat enter off a 121-110 overtime win over the Raptors on Tuesday  and are obviously on tired legs and will not Im betting have alot of energy tonight vs the Celtics and will play with a defensive mind set. Meanwhile, their hosts the Celtics are a defence first team , ranking 5th in ppg allowed behind a deliberate pace . that ranks 21st in the league. The above combination of betting leads to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

BOSTON is 33-19 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.9 ppg which gives us more than a possession edge, making this a viable under situation. 

NBA team (MIAMI /BOSTON) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Wow, how the mighty have fallen the great Warriors, are now a sub .500 team that is struggling to find a new identify. However despite of their nasty looking SU record they have been competitive of late covering 4 of their L/6 overall. Tonight against a Charlotte team they match up well against, Im betting we have value on the line taking points. Add to that Golden State has revenge on board a November home loss to the Hornets, and we have a motivated underdog to back.  Note: GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

 GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 ATS in road games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 8-27 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.CHARLOTTE is 10-22 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

The Bucks enter into this Central Division tilt against the Pistons on  a 12-game winning streak  .  they have owned the Pistons since the beginning of last season. They swept the four-game regular-season series and their first-round playoff series and Im betting on more of the same action here tonight in Motown. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

Casey is 2-12 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of DETROIT. with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.3 ppg. 

Budenholzer is 20-5 ATS vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with the averaging diff clicking in at  +13.7 ppg. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Clippers are ranked 5th in ppg offensive output in the NBA behind the 8th ranked pace. and 11th in ppg allowed. Meanwhile, Portland ranks 9th in ppg on offence, rank 24th in ppg allowed behind the 9th fastest pace. Tonight Im betting these teams continue their pace and offensive output numbers, and  lack of consistent defensive play and for this score to be eclipsed. 

Over is 14-5-1 in Clippers last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 9-4 in Clippers last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The top two sides in the Western Conference go head to head Tuesday when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Denver Nuggets in the Mile High City.The Lakers have lost eight of their past 10 visits to Denver including their L/3 most recent visits and Im betting they are on the wrong side of the scoreboard here tonight. 

The Nuggets are 40-12 ATS  since 2017 at home off a loss. ( They lost 100-97 last time out ending a 6 game win streak)

LA LAKERS are 19-32 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 4-27 SU L/23 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The Lakers and the Nuggets are both playing very good defensive basketball of late at a deliberate pace. 

The Nuggets rank 1st in the league in ppg allowed at 101.8 ppg and rank 28th in pace, and just 22nd in ppg. Meanwhile, the Lakers 4th in ppg allowed and despite of the offensive talent on board rank just 12th in offensive production, behind the 17th ranked pace. 

With this game promising to be physical, and knowing what the modus operandi is of both teams  and the taxing conditions of playing in the thin air of the Mile High City it is an easy decision to make this an under recommendation.  

Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 overall.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 19-7 in Lakers last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 24-9 in Lakers last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 13-5 in Lakers last 18 Tuesday games.Under is 35-16 in Lakers last 51 games following a ATS loss.Under is 40-19 in Lakers last 59 vs. Western Conference.Under is 29-14 in Lakers last 43 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 28-10 in Nuggets last 38 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 22-8 in Nuggets last 30 home games.Under is 22-8 in Nuggets last 30 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 20-8-1 in Nuggets last 29 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 21-9 in Nuggets last 30 games following a ATS loss.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205 ppg. 

LA LAKERS are 18-4 UNDER  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after 2 or more consecutive unders against opponent after 3 or more consecutive unders are 126-78 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Sacramento plays at the 30th ranked pace in the league and 28th in ppg production but Im betting they pickup the pace tonight against a weak defensive side that allows an average of 110.1 ppg on the road this season. Also when Chicago has Zach Lavine on the court and healthy they seem to push the tempo more and that is what I expect tonight in a tilt that eclipses this total.  

SACRAMENTO in their L/30 as a favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 223.9 ppg go on the board.

Over is 16-5 in Bulls last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 32-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Memphis is a young team that has gone through some changes both organizationally and on the court. Despite of losing last night to the Wolves by 8 pts, and their dismal  sub par record they continue to play hard and have been competitive against top tier teams, especially at home. Recently the Grizzlies, lost to the LA Lakers by 1, to the Clippers by 2, and upset the Jazz. All these games came here on home court, and tonight Im betting on another spirited effort vs a Pacers side  playing their fourth game in 7 days  and off a hard fought loss to the Sixers last time out by a 119-116 count, which will have them in a emotional letdown situation here vs a side Im sure their over looking to an extent. Plus the Grizzlies have the motivation of revenge on board for a 12 point loss last week as road dogs to the Pacers. MEMPHIS is 13-4 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Indiana is 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 as road favorites.

INDIANA is 3-15 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 3 seasons. INDIANA is 8-18 ATS  in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (MEMPHIS) - in non-conference games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 54-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Clippers have won 7 of their L/8 , after a 7 win streak was abruptly stopped last time out  vs the Spurs. Despite of all the winning the Clippers have only covered 4 of their L/12 overall, and are 1-4 ATS L/5 vs a below .500 side like they will face tonight. It's obvious because of the talent level of the Clippers that they are continually being over rated via a public line which makes them vulnerable  favorites from a mathematical lines perspective.  Meanwhile, the Wizards, have covered  11 of their L/17 overall , and for the most part remain competitive and are capable of hanging tough vs the Clippers tonight behind a strong offence that is averaging 118.5 ppg for the 3rd best output in the league, behind the fastest pace. Note: The Wizards are 11-4 ATS L/15 on the road as an underdog and get my support here tonight to find a way to cover.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 5-23 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

Orlando ranks 30th in ppg on offence, 3rd best in ppg allowed in the league and 29th in pace. This is a deliberate methodical team that bases their successes and failures on top tier defense and nothing will change here today vs the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State ranks 21st in offensive output, and will have a hard time finding a better flow here tonight which Im betting  will hinder them further and will also lead to a fairly low combined score in this contest. 

Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 39-18 in Magic last 57 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ORLANDO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 40-11 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The defending NBA champion Raptors deserve respect against any opponent in the NBA on their own court where they are 8-0 SU this season and  19-4 SU  L/22 games overall as a favorite. Utah is a fine team, but are  a sub .500 road team this season. Im betting the Jzz will compete but fall short. 

TORONTO is 11-0 ATS in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. ( The Raptors have held 5 of their L/6 opponents under 97 points and limited Orlando to 83 points last time out). 

The Raptors are 17-0 ATS /16-1 SU with less than two days rest.

NBA Home teams  (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82  or more shots/game), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 115-39 SU L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 85 points or less are 9-31 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

The struggling Spurs upset the Los Angeles Clippers'  last time out  at home ending their seven-game winning streak,  with a 107-97 victory . Now after that huge effort Im betting on a regression here today vs a Detroit Pistons team that is desperate for a win. 

SAN ANTONIO is 2-11 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season and is 0-9 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season and also just 2-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.SAN ANTONIO is 1-9 ATS  after playing a home game this season.

Spurs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

The Spurs are 1-15 SU L/16 as a road dog and just 4-11-1 ATS. 

Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meeting.

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be searching for their third straight victory and seventh in the last eight when they host the Indiana Pacers on Saturday and Im betting they get it.The Sixers are a perfect 8-0 at home and get the nod to stay perfect and more importantly get us the cover. 

INDIANA is 8-18 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

McMillan is 8-26 ATS  in road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached  in his career. 

Brown is 21-7 ATS  in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.

NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - poor ball handling team - committing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

Denver is playing at a very high level right now and are off 4 straight home wins. However, Sacramento must not be underestimated and remain extremely competitive as they have covered 11 of their L/12 games overall. 

SACRAMENTO is 7-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season and is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. 

DENVER is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.The Nuggets are 0-12-2 ATS on the road off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field.Denver Nuggets are 0-20 ATS /4-16 SU L/20 vs a team that has averaged fewer than 58 ppg from two-pointers this season like the Kings.

Play on Sacramento to cover

Washington is not as bad as its sub par record would indicate, as they have proven competitive cashing 11 of their L/16 ATS. Today against a public favorite off of playing 4 straight  road games and on tired legs  they have an edge. 

LA LAKERS are 16-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wizards to cover 

After a sub par six-game road trip in which they went 2-4, the Portland Trail Blazers are back at Moda Center on Wednesday to play a under rated Oklahoma City Thunder side that I like getting points tonight. After playing the Lakers twice and Clippers once over their L/4 games and being very competitive in those tilts, Im betting the Thunder will be more than prepared for this battle vs a side that depends way to much on Damian Lillard for offensive production and flow. 

Trail Blazers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The LA Lakers are playing their 4th road game in a row in less than a week and will be on tired legs here vs a New Orleans team that has had a couple days rest after arriving home from a 3 game western road trip. With that said, Im betting on the rested home side getting the cover vs the exhausted road side. 

LA LAKERS are 7-17 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Pelicans are 4-1 ATS L/5 at home in this series.

Play on the  New Orleans Pelicans to cover

 San Antonio is in nasty early season slump, but their is just to much talent on this team for them to continue to flounder. Tonight in desperation mode and an added revenge factor in play vs a Wolves team that smashed them by DDs back in November , Im betting they get a win and more importantly a cover. It must noted the Spurs are quality redemption specialists  as noted with the following trends:SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 21-4 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

San Antonio is 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Pacers enter the contest with a three-game winning streak and have won seven of nine at home and are proving to me that they are a top tier team in the east. I respect Utah alot but after a hard fought loss to Milwaukkee last time out, Im betting they will experience a letdown performance. 

INDIANA is 13-4 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 24-3 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-64 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Dallas has won and covered 5 straight games while outscoring their opposition by an average of  23.8 ppg and have a huge amount of momentum on their sides. The Clippers are getting all the respect here and the Mavericks are not, which is fine by me as we are getting very good value with the underdog. Dallas owns .7.38 SRS which is 5th best in the league while, the Clippers rank 4th with a 7.76 SRS. When taking in to account home court advantage according to those numbers the wrong team is favored. Note:SRS:  Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

DALLAS is 32-17 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 13-4 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 34-21 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% or less on the season, averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

The San Antonio Spurs ended their eight-game losing streak with a victory at the New York Knicks on Saturday and now have a chance to right their proverbial  ship as they prepare  play nine of the next 11 games at home. The visiting Lakers despite of being exhausted as they play their 3rd road game in 4 nights are obvious public favs here which according to my projections is offering us a viable underdog number to bet into with the host team the Spurs. The Spurs also have the motivation of playing with revenge tonight for a 103-96 loss they suffered at home here vs the lakers back on Nov 3. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 25-8 ATS   revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 15-28 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NBA Underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 153-97 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

This is the first meeting between slumping Portland and their hosts the Chicago Bulls since March 17 of last season, when the Trail Blazers dominated the Bulls for a 118-98 win. Portland has been laboring a bit with injuries of late, but key offensive component Damian Lillard will play tonight as will as key defensive solution Hassan Whiteside which makes them formidable opponents for a up-trending but not quite ready for prime time Bulls team off a 116-115 win vs the Hornets last time out. Note: CHICAGO is 3-15 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Trail Blazers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Central.Trail Blazers are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference. 

Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago

CHICAGO is 17-31 ATS  in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 18-32 ATS ( in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Bulls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Bulls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Bulls are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games.Bulls are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs (PORTLAND) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 53-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

Minnesota lost four of its past five after starting the season 7-4, and are now banged up with significant injuries. I know Atlanta their opponents, are also not performing optimally, but with the Hawks being at home here tonight against a franchise they have had success against of lat. The Hawks have won and covered the 2 most recent meetings in this series here in Georgia. Atlanta in their two most recent home games vs Toronto and Milwaukee were competitive losing to the Raptors by 3 and to the Bucks by 8 and Im betting they will not be an easy out here tonight vs a side they matchup well against. 

Atlanta has been partaking in run and gun take no prisoners offensive basketball of late with lots of scoring. That good news for us here from a trends perspective as ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS  in home games after 6 or more consecutive overs. 

NBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense ( 36.5% or better ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 12-33  SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 17-52 SU L/23 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The last time the Philadelphia 76ers visited the Toronto Raptors on May 12 they lost on a dramatic shot for the ages and now revenge is at hand for the Sixers who were eliminated by the Raptors last season. 

The Sixers are currently in top form and enter this game on a 4 game win streak, and will be primed to take down the Raptors. 

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Detroit is on tired legs and in now way shape or form are the ready to run and gun here tonfight.
DETROIT is 14-3 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
Meanwhile, Orlando has proven themselves inconsistent this season, overall but the one thing they have shown consistency with is their defense first mentality. Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, 3rd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace, and that the kind of tone this game Im betting will offer once again. 

NBA team (DETROIT) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 53-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) str 29-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Clippers beat the Rockets 122-119 in Los Angeles for their fourth consecutive win last time out. That effort was exhausting, and now Im betting on the Clippers will be a in a letdown spot vs a visiting New Orleans side Im sure their underestimating. 

LA CLIPPERS are 7-20 ATS in home games off 3 or more consecutive home wins.

NEW ORLEANS is 28-15 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons. 

New Orleans has won and covered three straight on the road vs the Clippers.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 6 points or less are 35-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Kings have put up 100 or fewer points in three of their past four games. thanks in part to being with Bogdan Bogdanovic who injured his hip and also because of filling the spot of offensive minded D'Aron Fox with defensive specialist  Cory Joseph. The Kings because of being short handed have been depending on their top tier brand of defense to remain competitive and that will be even more prevalent here tonight against a run and gun Wizards side. This projected game plan Im betting leads to a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Sunday games.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 37-18 in Kings last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the UNDER 

Houston after an extended win streak have lost two in a row vs top tier competition, but will be prepared for a big bounce effort vs the Dallas Mavericks on their own home court here this afternoon!  Im betting the theory that if you can slow Harden you can beat the Rockets. What I personally believe is that Harden is a rare dynamic player that cant be consistently slowed when he is healthy and that this Rockets team is more balanced than many might think. 

HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams (DALLAS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

The Grizzlies were embarrassed at home in a 114-95 setback to the injury-plagued Golden State Warriors last time out and will now have a chance at redemption vs a LA Lakers team on tired legs after  a hard fought battle in Oklahoma City last night in a 130-127 win. ( LAL Vogel is 2-12 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more in all games he has coached. 

It must be noted thta the Lakers have a recent history of performing at a sub par level as compared to the line against sub par teams: Note:LA LAKERS are 7-18 ATS versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and are are 9-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. I know the Grizzlies may not inspire bettors, but they have revenge on board to a early season loss to the Lakers and are motivated to perform after what was a pitiful effort last time out. 

NBA Home teams  (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 23-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

Cavaliers coach John Beilein noted Friday he's hoping a return from the club's just-completed, 0-3 trip will help turn things around. Beilein is having a hard time getting this team to perform optimally, but he is a top tier coach and will have his team ready to compete.

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

 Nothing has been coming easily for the San Antonio Spurs as they have now lost 8 straight games. So suddenly expecting them to win  tonight on the road as short favorites is far from a sure thing like some pundits might expect. The Spurs have been cash burners in this situation as favorites this season failing to cover 8 of their L/10 and are just 3-13 ATS L/16times to the hardwood. We all know how futile the Knicks can be, but they have been competitive recently winning 2 of their L/4 SU while covering 3 of those games, and 3-4 SU at home and in their L/5 games overall the ppg diff clicks in at -0.6 ppg. Advantage Knicks. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Bulls matchup well vs the Hornets and will be primed for revenge in a 126-125 loss they suffered to the Hornets earlier this season.The Hornets return home after losing the final three games of a four-game road trip, the latest a 125-118 defeat at the hands of the Washington Wizards on Friday night and continue to be fade material according to my projections in this matchup.

CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS  in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 28-14 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 season

CHARLOTTE is 9-23 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.CHARLOTTE is 5-24 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 season.

Play on Chicago to cover 

The Clippers super star duo George and Leonard made their anticipated debut together Wednesday in a 107-104 overtime victory over the Boston Celtics and get another chance to play together tonight vs the Houston Rockets. This matchup between the Clippers and Rockets has featured some bad blood in the past as was defintely the case in their last meeting when Harden smashed  the Clippers for 47 points. That caused Westbrook to benevolently mock Beverley, with whom he has a long-running feud, since the Clippers guard was one of the primary defenders attempting to contain Harden. Revenge is on board here tonight and what Im betting will be spirited effort from the home side. 

LA CLIPPERS are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 49-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Denver is looking for its eighth win in nine games  behind a top tier defence. Im betting the Mile High City is not a good place to play this type of stingy physical team especially for a suddenly struggling Celtics team that  has lost two of their last three games following a 10-game winning streak.In addition to the defensive prowess, Denver has scored 100 or more points in 12 of its 13 games and must be respected as one of the key teams in the West.The last time these teams met in Denver, Jamlal Murray exploded for a career-best 48 points in a 115-107 victory on Nov. 5, 2018.

The Nuggets won both of last season's meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat performance here tonight. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Detroit has lost 5 straight games and are desperate for a win and will be primed to perform here tonight against a Atlanta  team my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. 

Casey is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached, with the average ppg diff clicking in at 7.2 ppg. 

NBA Home teams  (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 42-8 SU L5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.4. 

NBA team  (DETROIT) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days ARE 34-7 L/23 SEASONS for a 82% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6.4 ppg.

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Suns are  off a loss last time and expected to be without [C] 11/20/2019 - Aron Baynes is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs New Orleans ( Hip )[PG] 11/20/2019 - Ricky Rubio is doubtful Thursday vs New Orleans ( Back )[C] 10/25/2019 - DeAndre Ayton is out 25 games ( Suspension ). If Rubio plays he will be less than 100%. The Suns are off a close loss last time out vs Sacramento, and are starting to look exhausted of late. Note: PHOENIX is 2-12 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons ad fade material in their current form vs a team that can run and gun with them. 

Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Thursday games.

Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix.

The Suns are 0-9 ATS /SU as a favorite when they won at least 2 straight vs current opponent.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

These two teams are both struggling, but I personally see more promise with the Bulls at the moment because of their attention to better defensive play. The Detroit Pistons,  are currently on a four game losing streak while allowing opponents an average of 112.2 points. Earlier this season the Bulls wont a 112 -106 matchup as hosts and Im betting they repeat that trick again. Note: The Pistons are 0-12-1 ATS /0-13 SU L/13 as a road dog with rest off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

NBA Teams like Detroit  are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a road favorite after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pistons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.Pistons are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.Pistons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Pistons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central.Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Pistons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.Pistons are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, playing with 3 or more days rest are 6-30 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

Minnesota handed Utah its first home loss of the season on Monday. The Jazz  now have a quick pay back on their agenda vs the Timberwolves again Wednesday in Minneapolis. With Andrew Wiggins  downgraded to OUT Wednesday vs Utah ( Illness ) the advantage rests with the visitors in revenge mode. 

The Jazz are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by almost 12 ppg on average on the road off a loss in a home game when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The Raptors despite of being shorthanded  pounded Charlotte by a 132 -96 count last time out, and now Im betting on a regression to the mean for them here tonight against a up trending Orlando Magic team that has won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 overall SU. 

Raptors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

NBA Teams like the Raptors  are 0-15 ATS  as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent like the Magic with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

ORLANDO is 11-2 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.

The Magic are 10-0-1 ATS /10-1 SU L/11 on the road off a win as a home favorite when the total is at least 15 points less than their last game.

Magic are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Both these teams have shown to have some very porous defences, and both sides know they need to fix that situation, and are working hard to get stops .  Wizards star guard Bradley Beal told reporters. QUOTE:We compete hard enough to win every game. We are top five in offense. We know that is not the problem. We just have to get stops." END QUOTE: Im betting tonight San Antonio trys to reverse a ugly 6 game win streak, by paying more attention to defence vs an explosive offensive side, which in turn will see a slighter slower pace than the Wizards would like to see.  

NBA Teams like the Spurs are 1-17  UNDER  as a road favorite when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 18-8 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 26-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 60-26 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Sacramento continues to uptrend in my power rankings and showed their toughness when they ended the 10-game winning streak of the Boston Celtics via a  100-99 victory on Sunday. Now with plenty of momentum on their sides, I like their chances of  the Kings winning tonight on home court vs a Suns team that could be without key component  the injured Ricky Rubio .If the two way star does play  he will be less than 100% which will effect his teams cohesiveness. 

SACRAMENTO is 7-0 ATS  in November games this season.SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and is is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Kings have won 3 of the L/4 meetings here at home SU in this series.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are just 3-26 SU L/23 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 4-23 ATS L/23 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Sacramento has gone under in 3 straight games and have not allowed more than 99 points in any of those tilts . The Kings own the 29th ranked pace, and 28th ranked offensive output. Look for more methodical action tonight, as they look to slow down the high flying Phoenix Suns! 

Walton is 21-8 UNDER  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. 

The Suns are 0-14 UNDER L/14 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5 with the verage combined score clicking in at 193.8 ppg. The Suns are 0-13 UNDER  off a loss as a favorite when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with a combined average of 193.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams are 8-40-2  UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a home dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average score of 207 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 31-10 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The key super star duo of George and Leonard are both supposed to be on the floor tonight against the Thunder, which makes for a over powering situation that favors the Clippers to come out of this with a convincing victory.  

LA CLIPPERS are 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons

Donovan is 1-10 ATS (in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Houston owns a run and gun offence that averages more than 118.5 ppg ranking 2nd in the NBA in output. The Rockets recently have also picked up their defensive play which makes them dangerous, as is evident by their current 7 game win streak. Meanwhile, Portland their opponents tonight have been highly inconsistent and has lost 6 of their L/8 overall and fade material in their current form.


HOUSTON is 30-18 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets are 6-0-1 ATS L/7 covering by more than 7 ppg .

Play on Houston to cover

The Milwaukee Bucks will go for their fourth win in a row when they visit the Chicago Bulls on Monday night but Im betting that will not come that easily. The early market looks inefficient despite of the discrepancies in both teams current performance levels. However recency bias, is at play here giving us value on as slightly bloated line. 

The Bucks are 0-12 ATS /SU on the road off a game as a favorite in which they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-67 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.MILWAUKEE is 70-115 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Raptors were showing signs of fatigue Saturday and Pascal Siakam had an off night with 15 points on 6-for-24 shooting with five turnovers and with only one day rest in between games, I sure their still a bit exhausted. Also being without injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka. defence and a slower pace has been key for the Raptors and that will once again be the case tonight here  on home court as they get reacclimatized  to being on home court after an extensive 5 game road trip. Tonight Im betting the Raps will hold the Hornets to under their season ppg offensive average of 106 ppg, and for they themselves to have a limited out put because of being short handed. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 475-337 UNDER L/23 seasons for a long term 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Toronto is short handed with injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka on the sidelines. Im betting the Raptors offensive flow will be curtailed as well as they ability to cover in a game that I also have pegged at being fairly low scoring. 

The Hornets are 9-1 ATS  L/10 on the road.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 28-9  ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the NY Knicks are struggling, and both are looking at this like a winnable game, and both Im betting will be primed to be aggressive here in transition which Im betting helps this combined score get over this total. Yes, I know both sides have been creating unders of late, but that wont be the case here tonight. Note: NYK L/47 home games have seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in their L/44 games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.

Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play OVER 

Washington has the 3rd best offence in the league the 28th worst D ppg allowed, and 8th fastest pace. This is almost always recipe for a high scoring back and forth tilt. Meanwhile, Orlanso has seen an uptick in their offensive outputs of late, and Im betting they will need that extra offence against a team that plays wide open run and gun ball. 

The Wizards are 19-0 OVER with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 232.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER  off a road win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 83-49 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 The Kings are a team that must not to be overlooked, having won four of six since an 0-5 start. I know the Celtics are a public favorite but because of this we have value line with the home underdog to bet into. 

Meanwhile, the Celtics narrowly closed out a 105-100 win over the Western Conference's worst team, the Golden State Warriors, on Friday night, and looked less offensively cohesive without  Gordon Hayward who is out indefinitely.

Boston has won seven of its past eight meetings with Sacramento, but the three most recent victories have been by single digits. 

The Kings are 6-0 ATS L/6 covering more than 7 ppg.   

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Sacramento to cover 

Kawhi Leonard and Amir Coffey are expected to miss tonight for the Clippers which will effect their flow. Meanwhile, Atlanta is also short handed with a boat load full of injuries, something that will also effect their flow, especially since they will be on tired legs playing their their 4th straight road game in west coast road trip in less than a week. 

The Clippers are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a home favorite with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana played last night in Houston  so they should be on tired legs, but what impresses me about this team is their never say die attitude. I mean these guys are like energizer bunnies and must never be underestimated , even against a top tier team like Milwaukee. Last night the  Pacers limited the sharp shooting Rockets to 14 of 46 (30.4 percent) from long distance and just 40.4 percent shooting overall and Im betting that can replicate those numbers again here on their own home floor in a key divisional matchup vs another strong downtown shooting team. 

Indiana is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Pacers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Pacers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games are  just 30-77 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Brooklyn is 1-3 on the trip and is coming off three straight losses to the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets and in their current form fade material vs the Chicago Bulls. 

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

Nets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games.Nets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Nets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Nets are 77-238 ATS since 1995 as a road dog after playing as a road dog.

Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

Im betting the flow of the Celtics will be tested here tonight in Golden State as they play with out .high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward who has  a broken left hand. I know the Golden State Warriors look to be a shambles right now, but Im betting they gather up some pride and make a game of this here tonight on their own home floor.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS L/30  in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game.

NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% . or less) are 6-25 ATS L/23 seasons for go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State  Warriors 

The Celtics won't be at full strength for the trip out west, and for at least a month after that, with the loss of high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward to a broken left hand earlier in the week. Im betting this will hamper the offensive flow of the Celtics and they will take a more defensive, stance for a while to compensate for their offensive loss. Tonight because of this Im betting this Total is slightly bloated with the value towards the under. BOSTON i in 13 road games    after 6 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 216.1 ppg.

These teams have gone under in the L/4 meetings. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7 or better  PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7  or better PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Washington enters this game ranked 8th in pace in the league 8th in ppg(115.6) , and 28th in ppg allowed(120). Meanwhile, Minnesota is ranked 5th in pace, 4th in offensive output (117.2), and 25th in ppg allowed(116.2). Its obvious both sides run and gun with reckless abandon, while exhibiting an inability or disinterest in playing D. It is what it is. A far is this total is concerned, and how high it might seem, you have to remember this is the new NBA , and totals like this will show up more and more often as the league continues its quest to entertain the public. There can be under value with bloated totals, but this one not one of them. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Wolves average 119.2 ppg and opposition  average 114.7 ppg. Based on a aggregate output system I use, 3-6 . points per team is projected above these numbers making this a viable over situation based on past performance trends and current form.

Play OVER 

After an impressive win  by 102-93 win against the Los Angeles Clippers , Im now sold on the Rockets as a two team. My power rankings make the Rockets a 7 point fav here so we have value on this line. HOUSTON is 14-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better  of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 19-79 L/ 5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in -9.2  ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Charlotte is on a four-game losing streak, while the Pistons have dropped three games in a row. Both are obviously not performing optimally and both are desperate for wins. With that said, Im betting on a hard fought game here tonight thus getting points with the home dog is viable wagering opportunity.CHARLOTTE is 17-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 

Charlotte has won 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series SU. 

NBA team  (DETROIT) - after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are just 32-73 U L/23  seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Orlando are No.1 in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 30th ranked pace. San Antonio is currently struggling and Im sure the Magic game plan will be to further take them out of their game with a suffocating physical effort which Im betting will contribute to a lower scoring affair.

ORLANDO is 27-15 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season ARE 39-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Phoenix is 8th in pace in the NBA and 6th in offensive output,(116.6) and will push all comers into speeding up their game, and opening up or be blown off the court. That is exactly the situation we have here tonight as Atlanta visits in their 3rd  western road game in 5 nights. Run and gun until the clock tips in at zero. The two most recent meetings between these teams last season saw 230 and 232 combined points cored.

Atlanta has gone over in 3 straight games with the combined score of 237.7 ppg scored. Suns have gone over in 4 straight with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 12-2 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg going on the board. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Dallas has revenge on board for a 106-102 loss at home back in November, and Im betting we see them at their best here in the rematch vs a NYK side that ha lost 6 of their L/7 SU overall and 9 of their L/11. 

NEW YORK is 9-23 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.9 ppg.

Carlisle is 21-9 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of DALLAS with the average ppg diff registering at +11.9 ppg.The Mavericks are 12-2 ATS L/14 on the road.

NBA Road teams (DALLAS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less  differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 39-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Cleveland after a slow start to their season have won 2 of their L/3 with the one loss coming to the 76ers by just 1 points. In their current form they are viable underdogs on their own floor here against a Miami team that maybe flashing slightly bloated recency bias favorite status. 

Cavs are 7-2-1 ATS L/10 overall.

NBA Road teams  (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 10-41 SU L/5 seasons for a less than 20% win ratio. 

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover 

The Lakers played a aggressive game vs the Suns last night in a big win, that saw the team spread the ball around . Note: The Lakers are 0-14 L/14 UNDER at home after a game as a road favorite in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with a combined average of 193.3 ppg going on the board. Now on tired legs I look for a regression tonight, and for this contest vs the Golden State Warriors to end up on the lower side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored and are are 11-2 UNDER  in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% or worse ) are 24-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

San Antonio looked asleep at the wheel last time out vs Memphis and lost as DD chalk. Now after that embarrassing effort Im betting on this talented but inconsistent team to step up their game against a Minnesota team that is playing at a high level, but due for regression after some hard fought affairs over a short period of time. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more

San Antonio owns an 89-30 all-time series lead on the Timberwolves. The Spurs have won the season series against Minnesota 22 times in 30 seasons, including the last six.

SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 49-20 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

This will be a back to back for the Sixers and their 3rd game and 4 nights and  they will now be on tired legs vs a up trending Orlando team that is slowly getting back into a culture of winning.  Advantage Orlando. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-25 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are just 7-24 L/23 seasons for a 75% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

Sacramento is playing pretty good ball of late,  and are well rested, but an injury to starting point guard, De'Aaron Fox has caused what Im betting is an over reaction on the line giving us value with the home dog. Im betting veteran backup Cory Joseph will do just fine filling in tonight and give the Kings an opportunity for a win and more importantly cover  for the 4th time in their L/5 games. 

SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Note: NBA Teams are 0-12 ATS /SU as a road dog off a win as a favorite in which they had overtime (Portland ended a 4 game losing streak with a OT win vs Atlanta last time out)

The Kings are 18-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

Play on the Sacramento Kings 

The Nets enter this road game against the Jazz having covered at a 15-6 ATS rate  in their last 21 vs. Western Conference and are  13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jazz on tired legs after playing last night and are vulnerable here vs this type of uptempo side.

BROOKLYN is 27-12 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 3 seasons

The Nets are 23-3-1 ATS L/27 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

NBA Teams like the Jazz  are 0-14 ATS L/14 with less than two days rest off a win in which they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - in non-conference games, off a road win by 10 points or more are 44-85 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Oklahoma City is thundering into top form offensively of late, and as result of their decent Fg conversion rate and uptick in pace have scored 112, 1114, and 119 respectively, with all three going over as their D gets looser allowing 121, 108 , and 121 points. Tonight Im betting on that current form to continue which will force a capable Indiana side  that is in top form to push forward offensively and upping their pace and  gaining on a recent output of 120, 121, 112, 109 points  in their L/4 with 3 of those 4 games eclipsing the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Indiana has been playing some very good basketball of late, winning, 6 of their L/7 games, but are now on tired legs and prepare to play their 5th game in 8 days. With Oklahoma City beginning to score on a more consistent rate of late, are viable opponents here on this line.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Teams like the Pacers are 1-18-1 ATS L/20 (2-18 SU) with less than two days rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

NBA Teams are 1-14 ATS /SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a win in a road game in which they had 30+ assists.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Utah Jazz enter this game off a big home win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out, and Im betting they will now be in a letdown situation. I know Golden State is also in a funk, and on tired legs , but in a game that will be fairly slow paced and quite probably lower scoring, a 9 point spread for advantage players looks like a viable investment option.The Jazz are 0-4 ATS /1-3 SU L/4 on the road.the lone win came by a 1 point margin vs the Suns. 

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 38-83 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Boston enters this game of an upset underdog win on the road vs the San Antonio Spurs last time out by a 135-115 count  for their 7th straight win. They are currently in top form and a tough opponent for any team whether it is at home or on the road . Note: BOSTON is 13-2 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home favorites  (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-1 SU L/23 seasons with  a + 13.7 ppg diff. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Minnesota lost in a hard fought OT  game last night to Denver and will now be on tired legs and a letdown spot. Advantage Detroit Pistons with  two days rest. 

Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

The Pistons are 11-0 ATS /SU when they won 4+ straight meetings vs current opponent.

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS SU  as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets' looked impressive last time out vs a top tier  Philadelphia 76ers club. They came back in  spectacular fashion as they erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a 100-97 victory and improve to 6-2 for the season.This is a top quality team that matches up very well vs a up trending but not quite ready prime time Minnesota side. 

Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.

Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

New Orleans is off a loss last night against the Toronto Raptors and will not be in any shape to play defence, tonight against the Hornets something thats been an issue for them all season long, as they allow the worst ppf average in the league ( 124 ppg) behind the 5th best offence ( 117.4 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 23rd in ppg, allowed and 24th in defensive rating and will have to open here tonight against this type of wide open team if they hope to notch a win. Note: The Pelicans are 16-0-1 OVER L/17 with less than two days rest coming off a loss with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Every game during this extensive trend run have all eclipsed the current high total. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 OVER  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240 ppg scored. Over is 11-5 in Pelicans last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.ver is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Play OVER 

 Reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit Salt Lake City to take on Utah tonight. The public is loving the Bucks, but are greatly underestimating the tenacity of the Jazz, against a team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights on the road and in the high altitude of Salt Lake city. Advantage Utah. Take the points.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 26-5 SU L/23 seasons for a 84% conversion rate .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 4-22 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans opened the season against each other nearly three weeks ago.with the Raptors taking a  130-122 victory  in overtime . Since than both have taken part in some high scoring games  which in some ways is skewing this total to the high side, which offers value for under bettors such as ourselves. ( It it was not for OT the above mentioned tilt would have stayed under the total)

 Gentry is 36-19 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW ORLEANs with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

The Raptors have not eclipsed the total in their L/7 as a road favorite with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 50-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The desperate  Orlando Magic return home to Amway Center on Friday looking to end a four-game losing streak vs a Memphis side that they matchup well against.ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.8 ppg. 

The Magic are 9-0 SU/ 7-2 ATS  L/9 as a home favorite.

Play on the Magic to cover 

The Spurs have dropped three of their past four, including Tuesday's 108-100 setback in Atlanta and because of this we have a decent recency bias to bet into here with the desperate home chalk. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City have won two in a row and getting some media accolades on a small sample size. Truth is at least from my perspective , is that despite of the Thunders hard work and recent positive results, thye are still over matched here according to my power rankings which take into account variables  media polling numbers don't such as matchup discrepancies based on systems. With that said, Im betting on the Spurs to come out here with a top tier effort on their way to a win and cover for the 5th straight time at home in this series.Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Donovan is 8-22 ATS  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 48-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover