The Orlando Magic have struggled for most of this season, and are on a 7 game losing streak, but  have been fairly competitive of late with  five losses coming  by single digits with the  average margin of defeat clicking in at  8.4 ppg during the skid. Meanwhile, Minnesota is in top form and off a 5 game home stand where they won all their games. But it's not always easy transitioning in cohesive fashion from a  comfortable road environment to a   hostile one on the road, especially after an extended period of time in your own digs. It must also be noted that the Wolves have lost 2 in a row on the road, and 3 of their L/4 away  and have  Houston on deck next. This combination could have the TWolves looking ahead and feeling just a bit to confident , which gives Orlando a viable chance at an upset and more importantly a cover.

The Wolves have covered only 2 of 10 games as non conference chalk this season. Orlando has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series as dogs.

MINNESOTA is 16-32 ATS L/48 versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game.MINNESOTA is 18-43 ATS L/61 after scoring 120 points or more.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Rockets enter this contest against the LA Clippers playing decently without super star James Harden ( injury). However, the Rockets still don't look like they have the same flow they had with him in the lineup. Yes, their offense remains productive, but I can see chinks in their armour, and I'm betting the Clippers find a way to slow them down a little bit on their own home floor. I know these teams took part in a high scoring 128-118 affair back in late December , that the Rockets won, but with the Clippers learning their lesson, I expect a different type of approach here. With that said,   the  Clippers  know its in their best interest to slow this game down if they want positive results. With LAC HC Rivers starting to look like a much better tactician than he was earlier in coaching career  ,   I'm also  betting Rivers will try to slug it out with Houston in a slower more grinding game, instead going head to head with them,   in a run and gun affair again. This will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half dating back to last season with a combined average of 195.4 ppg going on the board. LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER L/18 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 208.5 ppg scored.HOUSTON in their L/28 games in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game have seen a combined  average of 222.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 31-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Utah has not played very inspired basketball of late losing 14 of their L/18 and probably don't inspire many bettors, but they are in a favorable spot here tonight against a tired Indiana side off a desert win vs Phoenix last night. With Indiana now on tired legs and now having to compete in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City the fatigue factor will become key to us laying the short lumber with the desperate home side that is well rested. Pacers are 15-31-1 ATS in their last 47 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 8-2 SU L/10 at home in this series, and won and covered the most recent two meetings here. Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest


NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

The struggling  Cleveland Cavaliers'   prepare to host the rival Golden State Warriors on national TV on Monday. The Cavs have played uninspired ball of late losing 7 of their L/9 overall, but now with the defending league champs in town , I'm betting on them finally coming out here and showing us their ability to play a complete game. Last time out they built a 22 point lead before losing a 97-95 decision to Indiana. That was a humbling experience for this talented group, and now with redemption at hand vs what is arguably the best hoops team in the world, they should be ready leave everything on the floor. When these teams  played on Christmas Day this season, the Cavs actually looked comfortable, and played well in a hard fought close 97-92 loss, and are more than capable of a cover here and SU upset vs a Warriors side on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and 7th in 11 days.

Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 14-39 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 60-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

The Lakers  have had success of late and are on a 4 game win streak thanks to playing  much better defensive hoops and held the last three opponents to an average of 89.3 points. Tonight against a Memphis side that has only average 97.8 ppg in offensive production at home, I'm betting on them keeping their foes under wraps again. It must also be noted that the Lakers have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/7 in slower paced affairs behind the 29th ranked offensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Memphis is off scoring 78 points last time out in a hard fought defensive game in Denver (87-78), and I'm betting that Fizdale and company stick to this type of physcial hoops again, as they revert back to a slower paced game plan as they search for consistency.

Memphis is ranked 30th in Pace in the NBA while their  offense ranks 29th.

Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 games following a ATS win.

MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season .MEMPHIS is 16-5 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 39-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Call me crazy but I'm going to stand in front of the Miami Heat freight train tonight. Yes, they have played well of late and won 7 straight games, but they are on tired legs after playing last night in South Florida vs the Bucks  and then had to catch a red eye here to Chicago to play the Bulls , in an afternoon affair. This should have both discombobulated and exhausted ,which obviously makes them vulnerable to a down performance vs a team that is playing only their 2nd game in 5 nights.

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS   against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21  or less free throws/game.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MIAMI) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-7 SU L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Knicks have recently struggled on the road, but I'm not sure we should look at this as a true road game, as their will be plenty of Knicks fans in attendance here in Brooklyn to his afternoon.  Last night  New York choked and gave  up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter and suffered a 123-118 overtime. I know the Knicks lost, but watching excerpts of that game, showed me this team still has the ability to take down any team in the league , and tonight I expect they will turn the trick vs a side that they matchup well against according to my power rankings. The Knicks  Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points off the bench Sunday and  is looking strong and will make his 3rd start after coming back from injury and should be now in top form as the rust  has worn off. I'm betting on him to be the catalyst in a Knicks cover .

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW YORK) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-91 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Both Washington and Milwaukee are very inconsistent sides, despite of having a lot of talent , and today I expect they will partake in a closely contested affair , with the advantage going to the visitor getting points. Washington is a weak favorite as is evident by  their  4-15 ATS  record  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-21 ATS record overall  chalk this season. I know the Wizards have played well of late but they don't deal well with success , as they are just  1-8 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off 2 straight losses, but it must be noted that  HC Kidd is 19-4 ATS  L/23 after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . I know the Bucks played last night, but they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on no rest.Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and have failed to cover 4 straight at home.

NBA Road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games 60-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Minnesota Wolves are a fine young team on a current 4 game win streak, but the Blazers now getting healthy and are a side that must not be underestimated. The last time these teams met about a month ago, the Wolves scratched out a 108-107 victory, in a game that could obviously gone either way.

Overall the Blazers style of play matches up very well against the Wolves, and despite of a two game losing streak are looking good overall, as they had previous to that notched six wins in eight games.  It must also be noted that Minnesota is just 6-12-1 ATS as home chalk this season,  and have failed to cover 18 of their L/23 in this series at home, and are just 2-8 SU/ATS when the Blazers are seeking revenge. Overall the Wolves have a history of short changing their backers at home vs non division foes looking for same season revenge going just 2-10 ATS when they are above. 500 on the season.

MINNESOTA is 4-14 ATS  L/18  in home games after scoring 115 points or more .Trail Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.

Portland has covered 5 straight visits to Minnesota.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Miami Heat enter this game in good form after having won 6 straight games. A combination of playing against lower tier teams and sides that are banged up culminated in this short handed group Heat group compiling this current streak. The Heat  during their run have been less than overpowering as Two of their victories have  come by one point and another came in overtime. It must also be noted that all six of those games were decided by less than 10 points. Now with a huge target on their backs, the Heat are vulnerable. With that said,   I'm betting the Greek Freak ( Giannis Antetokounmpo) and his Wisconsin travelling circus will be primed to come into South Florida and notch a win and more importantly a cover vs a team they matchup very well against according to my cross reference system vs system and player vs players analysis.

MIAMI is 5-13 ATS  in home games this season. .MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games on Sunday games .Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.Heat are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 26-7 ATS L/21 seasons for 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Pistons  have lost three of their last five games, but are coming off a 114-80 victory over Brooklyn on Wednesday. Despite of that victory I have not liked the way Van Gundy's group has played overall,  since starting point guard Reggie Jackson, went down with an injury  and are highly inconsistent , even more so than the average NBA team (which says something).  Meanwhile, the host Bulls  snapped a two-game losing streak Wednesday with a 122-119 double overtime victory over the New York Knicks and are now ell rested and ready to use that momentum heading into this tilt. The Bulls also have also the added services of formerly injured guard Zach  LaVine  and are getting healthier as the season has progressed despite of this being a rebuilding year and are my choice to cash tonight at home.

Note: Bulls Nikola Mirotic is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Detroit ( Illness ) .

CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS    in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.

DETROIT is 4-17 ATS  L/21 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 .

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

Both the LA Lakers and Dallas Mavericks are playing decent basketball at the moment. Both are still cellar dwellers but, one team in my head to head analysis is superior to the other, and that side is Dallas. With this game on the Mavs with 2 days rest on their  home floor I expect  what my power ranking tell me is the  better team to come out of this with a win and cover. Add to that the young Lakers are in a huge letdown spot after a very motivated upset win the Spurs last time out, and are now susceptible to a flat performance.

LA LAKERS are 11-24 ATS  L/35 after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last couple of seasons.

Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.

Dallas is 7-0 SU L/7 meetings in this series and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games are 22-92 SU L/22 seasons losing SU by an average of 9.7 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in January games are 55-5 SU L/22 seasons winning SU by an average of 8.9 ppg.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover

Cleveland has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in back to back games after getting clobbered by Minnesota by 28 points on Monday night,  and then smashed in their ugliest defeat of the  season, 133-99, at Toronto Thursday night. Now humiliated and seeking redemption as well as revenge for two earlier losses this season to Indiana already this season , I'm betting on the Cavaliers  finally coming out and getting down to business. Tonight I expect LeBron James and his humungous ego to come out here and show a glimpse of his Hall of Fame talent and lead his team to a cover. Meanwhile,  after having a  two game home win streak abruptly ended ,  by losing  114-106 to visiting Miami on Wednesday night I've begun to notice the Pacers  looking strangely in cohesive for long stretches more often as the season progresses which is a worrisome development. I think this team feeds to much off leading scorer  Victor Oladipo and when he's not in a groove the team goes into a sinkhole. With that said, I am recommending we lay the short lumber with the Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde Cavaliers.

Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% SU conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 10.1 ppg.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

The Spurs key to success has always been a dominant D, but with a boatload full of injuries to key defensive players, ie ( K Leonard) I'm betting they will be at a disadvantage tonight, against a young LA Lakers team that despite of trying to play better D,  is still for the most part  a one way run and gun team. Earlier this season with Parker and Leonard out, the Spurs still played very competitive ball, and I'm betting nothing changes tonight, except maybe their ability to defend and be physical in the process, as they are also on tired legs, as they play their third road game in four nights. The Lakers offense has been a little stagnant of late, but with an opportunity to upset a big time opponent I'm betting we see these kids and their veterans in top form and ready to run. The above mentioned group of situations should contribute to a looser game than many might expect and a much higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.

LAL ranks 29th in the league in D and own the No.1 pace.

Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 19-9 in Spurs last 28 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 overall.Over is 22-8-1 in Lakers last 31 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for Totals bettors with a combined average of 225.6 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

A week ago I would have been backing the Raptors in this spot, vs a struggling Cavaliers side,   but with the high possibility of playing tonight's game without guard Kyle Lowry, who is listed as day-to-day with a bruised tailbone and back spasms,  I'm betting against the Raptors instead.  Lowry's abs cense was obvious in a loss to Miami last time out, as the Raptors took it on the chin in a  90-89 decision to the Heat.  I know Cleveland has been playing less than inspired hoops of late, but going against one of the Eastern Conference strongest teams I expect LeBron James and company to be very motivated and ready to perform to their best of their abilities. QUOTE: "I mean, the whole game is completely different without Kyle," said Raptors star DeRozan, who scored 25 points and gave Toronto an 89-88 lead on a basket with 3.1 seconds left. "You can kind of tell with our ball movement wasn't all the way there like it normally be when Kyle's out there. Like I said, he's a general on the floor. He sees things when they need to be called. That's no excuse." END QUOTE. No ones making excuses for the Raptors, but like I said above and what  his team mate also suggests is that TO just doesn't have the same energy with Lowry at less than 100% or not playing.

Note: The Dinos, forward Serge Ibaka is also expected to miss with an injury.

Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto

NBA  Road underdogs (CLEVELAND) - struggling team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 are a long term profitable bet, going 131-80 ATS L/21 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Oklahoma City is a talented but an inconsistent team, that is still above .500 on the season. Their veterans ie ( Melo, George, Westbrook) and the experience they bring to the court make them viable underdogs against young teams like Minnesota . Last night, the Thunder, looked asleep at the proverbial wheel, in their game vs short handed Portland losing by a 117-106 count. However, after not showing up for that game, the Thunder should have plenty of jump and energy for this tilt vs their hosts the Wolves. Meanwhile, the Wolves are  dynamic group, with plenty of athleticism, and are off an impressive 127-99 win vs the Cavaliers last time out, but according to my own matchup data, and cross reference player vs player and system vs systems rankings, the Thunder have an edge vs a side that could easily be in a letdown mode after their last complete game tenacious effort.   Its also interesting to note  that MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after scoring 120 points or more . HC Thibodeau is 4-15 ATS   in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more in all games  he coached in his career.

MINNESOTA is 22-38 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game dating back to last season.Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. .Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit loss at home.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Timberwolves are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 28-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors and also NBA teams vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-13 SU in the follow up L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Detroit is  has really been having  a lot of problems defending of  late, especially on the road as is evident by a  8-13 away record, which is ranks last in the Eastern Conference and recently have allowed allowing 101.4 points and 46.9 percent shooting  during their current 5 game losing road run. QUOTE: "We've lost five straight on the road and all of them have been horrendous defensive effort, every one of them," Motown's HC Van Gundy said. "Pathetic defensive effort. I don't think our effort is close to good. "END QUOTE: I agree with his assessments, and I'm doubting this teams ability to make a 360 here.

The Nets are 3-3 SU in their last six games but have been extremely competitive last five games  as the games were decided by three points or less and I'm betting they come out here and take advantage of a down trodden Pistons team in this spot and once again give their opponents headaches behind a strong blue collar work ethic.  

BROOKLYN is 16-6 ATS  L/22 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DETROIT is 16-29 ATS  L/45  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record.

DETROIT is 3-17 ATS  L/20 on the road when the line is +3 to -3. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS  L/9 off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season.

Brooklyn has covered 4 straight at home in this series.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

The Toronto Raptors are on tired legs after an  overtime victory over the Nets last  night. Not only will they be exhausted but  also maybe short handed after  All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry injured himself last night. If Lowry does not play or is less than 100% the Raptors flow will be interrupted and so will their offensive cohesiveness. Also after last nights affair this Raptors side will be in no condition to run and gun, which will also effect their output ratio. Another factor here is that  we may see the explosive TO crew curtail their aggressiveness  as coach Casey, was not impressed with their defensive play last night, and now wants a concerted effort in transition,  in their own end of the court. This Toronto team despite of being an offensive juggernaut when healthy , play solid D, and rank 6th in Defensive efficiency in the league and are more than capable of stepping up their stopping efforts. Meanwhile the Heat  despite of taking part in some fairly high scoring tilts of late, do their best work when their playing tough defensive ball behind Hassan Whiteside, and tonight I'm betting their prepared to be physical in their quest to some how slow down this explosive side  ( Heat Rank 27th in pace in the league and 7th in points allowed). These scenarios play well towards this total score falling below the posted Number. Note: The four most recent meetings in this series have all failed to eclipse the posted total with a combined average of 187.8 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 26-12 UNDER  L/38 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored during that span.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER L/10  in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days with a combined average of 200 ppg going on the board.

Under is 60-29-1 in Heat last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-2 in Heat last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games.

NBA  team (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

It has become obvious to me recently  the importance of Indiana Pacers leading scorer Victor Oladipo to the teams successes or failures. He's is truly the key to this teams flow in my humble opinion and brings a great deal of chemistry and energy to the Pacers attack. After losing 5 straight games, Oladipo made a triumphant return last time out  scoring 26 points as his team blasted the Bulls by a lopsided 125-86 count and I'm betting his fresh legs will be the catalyst to a Pacers win and cover tonight vs visiting Milwaukee . QUOTE: "He opened up the offense as well as the defense with a couple of steals in the first quarter," McMillan said about Oladipo  . "We were able to establish a tempo. When you have a guy like that capable of creating opportunities for himself as well as his teammates. It just frees you up. A lot of what our guys have to do is catch and shoot because the defense is focused on him." END QUOTE:

With Oladipo out, the Bucks owned  the Pacers in a 122-101 blowout last Wednesday night. But now with revenge on board and their star back in the lineup payback is at hand.

MILWAUKEE is 12-23 ATS   L/35 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or less. INDIANA is 22-10 ATS   L/32 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.INDIANA is 26-13 ATS  39  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central. Some teams and people don't like Mondays ( aka Boom Town Rats - 1979) but it seems the Pacers like the first day of the week, as they are 7-0 ATS  L/7 Monday games) Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bucks: 0-3-1 in 1/1 rest sit vs div -Pacers: 4-1 home in 1/1 rest sit vs div.

Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (INDIANA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are a long term viable wagering option, going 106-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Indiana to cover

The Miami Heat  enter this home game playing some good hoops of late, winning three straight , and  now go against a inconsistent  slumping Utah Jazz team that has lost 12 of their L/15 games  this  Sunday afternoon  at American Airlines Arena.

Both these teams overall numbers on the season suggest they are comfortable playing slower paced hoops. But recent stats and style of play do not support the overall data. This giving us value playing the OVER.

The Jazz's biggest problem this season is their inability to play solid defense, something they have become respected for, until recently. That is evident by allowing more than 100 points in 12 of their L/15 tilts with the average  opposition offensive production coming in at 109.4 ppg in those above mentioned games . With the Heat hitting their offensive stride of late scoring , 117, 111, 107 points in their L/3 , in fast paced back and forth affairs, . Considering the Heats current blue print has been successful   I'm betting on another similar output this Sunday by the Heat as they force the Jazz into a faster paced game than they may want to participate in. It must also be noted that the Heat have allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to eclipse the 100  point plateau allowing a average of 106.5 ppg in the 6 games. With that said,  my own projections, estimate both sides to eclipse the 100 point plateau, in this spot which makes taking an over wager a  very viable investment option.

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Miami.

MIAMI is 11-1 OVER  L/12  in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49% with a combined average 216.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. UTAH is 14-1 OVER    in road games versus lower tier foul drawing teams - attempting  21 or less free throws/game with the combined average score of 205.6 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games are 37-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Charlotte  Hornets enter this game  with momentum as they are off a season-high point total in a 131-111 victory at the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, the tired looking LA Lakers are off getting blasted by a 133-96  by the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder in their last trip to the hardwood on Wednesday night.  The Lakers futility has been obvious for a while, as they have lost 8 straight behind an offense ranks last in the NBA in 3-point shooting (32.6 percent), free throw shooting (68.8), and average the second-most turnovers per game (16.1). I know the Lakers beat the Hornets the last time these teams played on Dec. 9 in Charlotte, but the Lakers are only 1-11 since then, and in a major funk. Yes, injuries have played a role in the Lakers recent slide, but even when they are healthy chemistry issues and cohesiveness seem to be an issue. I personally feel having the self promoting Lavar Ball around the team ( Lonzo Balls dad)  makes for a circus like environment that in part is playing havoc with this young groups concentration. With that said, I'm betting on the revenge minded Hornets to come out here and get the win/cover as short road chalk.

Hornets are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games.Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.Hornets are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.

CHARLOTTE is 22-8 ATS  L/30  in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.LA LAKERS are 12-27 ATS  L/39 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over.

NBA Home teams (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - poor pressure defensive team - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less, after a game committing 10+ less turnovers than opponents are 45-11 SU L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by +8.9 ppg.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

The Toronto Raptors are in red hot form behind emerging super stars Lowry and DeRozan and up and coming kids with huge potential like Delon Wright. This past Monday On Jan. 1, the Raptors beat the Bucks 131-127 in overtime. That victory was the fourth straight in the series for Toronto, which grabbed the final three games of a first-round playoff series from Milwaukee last spring.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have won 3 of their L/4 with the lone loss coming in the above mentioned game. Despite of this game taking place in Milwaukee I'm betting the superior side according to my power rankings Toronto comes out on top again.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS L/38 after having won 3 of their last 4 games .

TORONTO is 20-7 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game

Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Bucks are 3-8-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. Raptors are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee.

NBA Home underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Los Angeles is playing some very good hoops at the moment as they go for their seventh win in the last eight tilts  when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is also playing well with seven victories in the last nine outings. However,  In game that is essentially a pickem, my own power rankings suggest in a head to head , and player to player and system vs  system analysis , that the Thunder are the superior overall team and have a better than 55% chance of coming out as the  victorious side. SF Paul George scored 42 points in 42 minutes when the Thunder took  a 120-111 home victory over the Clippers on Nov. 10 and is averaging 26.4 points on 44-of-75 shooting over his last five contests . With that said, I'm betting  George will once again be the key catalyst for what I expect will  be Thunder success in this meeting.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.( last night the Thunder beat LAL 133-96) Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The Rockets did well without the injured super star James Harden last night in a 116-98 win vs a downtrodden group in the Orlando Magic. Tonight, however, on tired legs  I'm betting their offense will be muted , vs a much better  and under rated defensive side , that is ranked 5th in defensive efficiency  in the league . With that said, I'm expecting the Rockets to take a much more conservative approach to this confrontation, vs the explosive Warriors than they usually would because of being short handed which will result in a slower paced game then expected. The Rockets are also no pushovers on defense as their efficiency ranking is 10th overall in the league and will be primed to play physical ball. Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA);  for players and teams... it is based on points allowed per 100 possessions.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

The last meeting between these teams was high scoring ,a 122-121 shootout win for the Rockets as road dogs but 5 of the L/6 overall have stayed under the total . I'm expecting for these sides to revert back to those types of confrontations tonight.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 28-7 UNDER  L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

I don't often watch complete NBA games, but rather , just go through all the action in fast form replays every morning, so I can get a better grip on emotions and energy levels, when I attach all the pertinent stats and power rankings / projections to a matchup vs the line. After all  sports are played by humans and not robots. So for me its important to see and gage with my own eyes what is exactly going on in a matchup.  With that said, for whatever reason, I ended watching big chunks of a previous matchup featuring tonight's combatants, the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz ( played on Dec 1). What I took from that game, and stood out to me was how the Pelicans Anthony Davis seemed to own the Jazz, he looked extremely confident and his team could feel his energy and they played off of it, leading for 3 quarters before Davis injured his hamstring. After Davis exited the Jazz took over and won 114-108. With Davis healthy and expected to play tonight I expect he and  his side kick Cousins to come out here looking for revenge.  Add to that some embarrassing collapses in recent tilts for the well rested Pelicans and I'm betting we see them at their best tonight, and as you can see from the line , the books agree with my assessments.

UTAH is 4-12 ATS  L/16 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.  Pelicans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 19-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors

NBA .teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 50-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Bulls after a slow start to their campaign, have really come together as a team, and must be respected here vs the Toronto Raptors as home dogs. The Bulls have covered 16 of their L/21 overall and are 8-2 ATS L/10 vs an above .500 team like the Raptors, and 7-1 ATS L/8 home games. I'm recommending we take the points here with the home dog.

Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central.Raptors are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season and  is 18-8 ATS  l/26  versus top tier teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.

CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 20-47 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls

The Knicks,  enter this game better prepared to take on the San Antonio after a  119-107 road loss  vs the Spurs last week on Dec 28.

The Knicks, in their last trip to the  hardwood ended   a four-game losing streak on Sunday in a 105-103 win and now with  momentum and added  confidence will I'm betting deal better with their top tier opponents in the rematch. Being able to get the feel of what's coming their way tonight by examining , their  last meeting in this series is an important factor in the Knick's being competitive tonight, considering Hornacek's recent ability to adjust to opponents via condensed scouting  charts . Considering that my own numbers ( cross reference player vs player -system vs system power rankings) also  suggest this line is closer to an adjusted  pickem, makes  taking the points here  a viable wager.  

Note: San Antonio's offense is averaging just 97.1 ppg on the road this season, while NYK has averaged 107.3 ppg at home.

Knicks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Los Angeles  is off a grueling , double-overtime loss (142-148) in Houston on Sunday that lasted nearly three hours and saw starters Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Tyler Ennis play over 40 minutes apiece. Already short-handed due to the injuries of Brook Lopez (sprained right ankle) and rookie Lonzo Ball (sprained left shoulder),  and  now exhausted the Lakers are  susceptible to getting run over as this tilt progresses.  Meanwhile, Minnesota had a much easier time of it , in a 107-90 victory at Indiana on Sunday and will be more than ready to run and gun again here at home as they go for their 7th win in 10 games.

Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

LA LAKERS are 11-23 ATS  L/34 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last few seasons with the average deficit margin clicking at just under 11 ppg.

Play on the Wolves to cover

The 76ers went into Denver last night and took out the Nuggets by a 107-102 count, and now with momentum on their sides I expect them to come out and take out the  Phoenix Suns this Sunday night. I know the Suns have played decent hoops of late winning 5 of their L/7 and  two good back to back games, but from a player vs player  and system vs system  perspective  the Sixers in their current form matchup very well against  them despite of losing the first meeting in this series this season back in December . With that that said,  their is added incentive for the Sixers as they look to avenge that above mentioned embarrassing 115-101  loss in Philadelphia on Dec. 4,

76ers are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Pacific.76ers are 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 vs. Western Conference.Favorite is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

PHILADELPHIA is 30-18 ATS  L/48 in non-conference games.PHILADELPHIA is 25-14 ATS  L/39 revenging a home loss vs opponent.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 32-3 L/L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average victory coming by 8.9 ppg.

NBA Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia 76ers to cover

My own projections make this Total closer to 216 to 217, thus giving us value on a UNDER wager in this pot play between the Suns and 76ers.

HC Triano of the Suns has turned his team around and are playing better ball of late, thanks to increased concentration on playing solid defensive ball. Tonight against a sometimes explosive 76ers group you bet this coach has a game plan that is centered on playing a slower brand of basketball. This I'm betting will directly effect the Total combined score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Note: Suns have failed to breach the 100 point plateau in 4 of their L/6 and 5 of their L/7 have remained on the low side the Total.

Under is 7-0 in Suns last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Suns last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

PHOENIX is 21-6 UNDER L/27 after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more with a combined average score of 199.3 ppg going on the board. Suns HC Triano is 12-1 UNDER    in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in all games in his career with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 23-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 35-9 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 40-14 UNDER L/21  seasons for a 74% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Indiana's leading scorer Victor Oladipo  is is expected  miss his third consecutive game with a sore right knee when Indiana (19-17) hosts Minnesota (22-14) on Sunday. That's  after  having  lost three in a row. That's not good news for a  Pacers team that already in funk after having lost three straight games.  QUOTE:
"We've lost that sense of urgency," said HC McMillan, whose team lost to Chicago 119-107 on Friday night. "We're giving up big quarters defensively. Teams are really coming out and just jumping on us. We have to get stops so we can rebound the ball and we can establish a tempo. Right now, we're not defending well at all." END QUOTE
I agree with this statement completely, and doubt very much that the Pacers can just turn a switch and go back into overdrive again.
The Pacers shot a team-record 66.7 percent in a 130-107 victory over the host Timberwolves on Oct. 24 and now with revenge on board I'm betting on the Wolves to be very motivated in this spot .

Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

 MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games versus good shooting teams - making   46% or more of their shots .

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 10 or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 26-2 SU L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Pistons according to my cross reference system/player rankings is a team that matches up well vs the Spurs. It's not about which side is superior, but about a head to head matchup analysis that suggests  that this Motown group are viable home underdogs. The Spurs rank 6th in SRS 3.02 and the Pistons rank 12th with a 0.77 SRS. The Pistons offense is ranked 22nd while the Spurs offense ranks 24th overall in the league.  Both sides own viable defenses with the San Antonio ranking first and Detroit in 7th spot. From a aggregate point of view the line is slightly bloated according to my own systems, and with that said I'm recommending we take the points here with the Pistons. ( Detroit is 11-5 SU at home this season)

Note: Detroit was upset last time out vs the Orlando Magic , as 4 point favs,(102-89) which is a good omen considering Detroit's ability in the past to bounce back as is evident by their  10-1 ATS  record L/11 opportunities  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite .

DETROIT is 9-1 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

Pro ballers do not like to be embarrassed, because it effects future contract negotiations  , and also damages what are usually huge egos. That is what the Miami Heat experienced last night    in its worst home loss of the season to Brooklyn by a 111-87 count . Tonight the Heat will be in a  big bounce back situation when they  visit  the Orlando Magic, a side of a upset victory vs the Pistons , last time out , but is also a side that has failed to get consecutive wins for  more than seven weeks.

MIAMI is 9-1 ATS L/10 off an upset loss as a home favorite .ORLANDO is 2-10 ATS L/12 after a game where they covered the spread this season.

Previous to that above mentioned loss by  Miami  they have played well  going 7-4 in its last 11 games while allowing more than 100 points in losing four of five. During this 11-game stretch, the Heat are allowing 96.8 points while recording a 102.7 defensive rating. Needless to say the Heat are no pushovers, and are well armed in their quest for redemption this evening. The Heat beat the Magic last time they played by a 107-89 count on Dec 26th. ORLANDO is 1-8 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

ORLANDO is 4-14 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Five-time All Star forward Blake Griffin will be a game-time decision when the Los Angeles Clippers play the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on Friday, but play or not I'm betting on the Clippers still having the edge in their current form, failing to cover just twice in their L/10 games. Meanwhile, the Lakers  3-12 L/15 SU continue to play without two key contributors Lonzo Ball and Brooks Lopez which will hinder their cohesiveness again in this spot. Also Kuzma the Lakers leading scorer is listed as questionable for Friday's game because of a quad injury and if he plays could see limited minutes. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the short lumber and back the Clippers to cover .

Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The Clippers have won 20 of their past 22 games against the Lakers dating to the start of the 2012-13 season and get the nod again here in a neutral court environment.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

This  Wizards  continued their trend of inconsistent hoops this week   beating Boston in a motivated effort and  than laid an egg against the lowly Atlanta Hawks in their next game. Meanwhile, Houston has lost 4 in a row, in part due to injuries. But the other night they played at a high level leading Boston by as much as 26 points before folding and losing by 1 point. This Rockets team despite of being short handed is very deep and more than capable of taking out the Wizards here behind an offense averaging 114.6 points per game, which ranks second in the NBA.

The Rockets swept the two-game series from the Wizards last season, including a 114-106 win in Washington on Nov. 7 and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation.

Rockets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Rockets are 4-0 ATS L/4 visits to DC.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 37-11 SU l/5 seasons  for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (WASHINGTON) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 26-61 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover

The Spurs  are the  healthiest they have been for a  long time  and had their entire available roster ready to play for the first time all season on Tuesday when they beat Brooklyn 109-97. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 OVER L/15 in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite with a combined average of 206.2 ppg going on the board. This Spurs group despite of playing a defense first brand of hoops,  is now explosive and ready to run, and will be motivated to get into an offensive rhythm as a team.  This I'm betting will in turn lead to some faster paced outings for a while for the Spurs, including tonight against a  Knicks group  that when pushed can light the board up behind the likes of Porzingis .

These teams have gone over 6 straight times in San Antonio.Over is 9-4-1 in Spurs last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 vs. Western Conference.Over is 6-2 in Knicks last 8 road games.

SAN ANTONIO in their L/62 in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in their L/46  games versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more  of their shots have seen a combined average score of 206.5 ppg scored.

 NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Milwaukee Bucks are an extremely talented team, that does not always play inspired ball, which results in their inconsistencies. The truth is that the Bucks when motivated can beat any team in this league, but on many occasions just come out in play flat uninspired hoops. With losses in five of their last seven games, the Bucks should be up for this tilt against  a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is streaking and have  won five games in a row, including a 128-125 overtime victory over Denver Wednesday night. Last nights game was grueling for the Wolves, and  should see them on tired legs tonight. The Bucks in their current from need every edge they can get , and with this being at home where they usually play well they get the nod as short home favorites. (Bucks are 11-6 SU at home this season)

  Milwaukee has won five of the last six meetings in the series, including three in a row at the Bradley Center and the favorite is 5-1 ATS L/6 meetings.

.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MINNESOTA is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents .MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS  in non-conference games this season.MINNESOTA is 17-42 ATS L/59 after scoring 120 points.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Two teams struggling to get wins on the board go head to head tonight as the Grizzlies visit the  Lakers in the Staples Center. The veteran laden Grizzlies are struggling much more than even I anticipated would be the case without injured floor general Conley out of the lineup, while the young Lakers show considerable inconsistencies. With that said, I'm always trying to find cracks in the current narratives associated with sports matchups that give me an edge against a line . From a matchup perspective the Grizzlies veterans are proven commodities in this league ie Gasol , Evans and matchup well against Lakers mostly inexperienced and unproven group that is also banged up with Lonzo Ball (shoulder) and Brookes Lopez expected to miss with an ankle injury.  With that said,  I'm betting we have value taking the Grizzlies.

LA LAKERS are 7-22 ATS  L/29 after playing 2 consecutive home games .Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover

Denver and Minnesota are two teams exhibiting upper tier offensive production and lower tier defensive numbers. The Wolves rank 5th in offensive efficiency (112.4) and 25th  in defensive efficiency (110.2).  Meanwhile, the Nuggets ranked 7th in offensive efficiency (110.1) and  a 17th ranked defensive  efficiency rating of (108.3 ) . This combination of numbers adjusted to each team system and head to head matchup comparisons, project and estimated combined score of somewhere in the vicinity of 217 to 219 , thus giving us value with an over bet according to my numbers. Note: The only game between these teams this season saw a combined 216 points go on the board. My own projections estimate both sides will score at least 106+ points tonight. DENVER is 13-0 OVER  L/13 where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combine average of 235.4 ppg clicking in on the board.MINNESOTA is 12-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 227 ppg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 overall.Over is 5-1-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

MINNESOTA is 13-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored.

DENVER is 31-11 OVER  versus lower tier  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the combined average of 228.4 ppg scored and is 30-13 OVER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 228 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Charlotte enters this game having lost 14 of their L/18 overall SU, and have not notched back to back wins during that negative run. The Hornets did get a rare win last time out, vs the Bucks, but are still a less than cohesive unit at this time and fade material vs what my own ranking suggest is a better side .  Meanwhile, the Celtics were upset at home vs a hungry looking Washington Wizards group last time out, and will now be primed for a bounce back performance. note: Celtics are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Celtics are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Hornets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

CHARLOTTE is 5-17 ATS  L/22 against Atlantic division opponents. CHARLOTTE is 7-15 ATS L/22 revenging a loss vs opponent this season .BOSTON is 25-14 ATS L/39 as a road favorite dating back to last season.

CHARLOTTE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5. 

Boston has won 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series and 4 straight here in Charlotte.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82  or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are JUST 9-50 SU L/5 seasons and 0-5 this season with the average margin of loss coming by 8.5 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks resume their long time rivalry tonight in a Boxing Day matchup at the Bradley Center.The same two teams met a little less than two weeks ago here in the same venue as the Bulls took a 115-109 victory . I know that the Bucks will now be out looking for revenge, but the according to my own matchup/systems player to player power rankings the Bulls matchup very well in this matchup and are a viable wagering investment opportunity getting points.

With Bucks star Antetokounmpo playing on a sore knee, I'm betting the physically active Bulls will be more than a handful for the home team once again tonight.

CHICAGO is 19-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points dating back to last season.CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.MILWAUKEE is 9-24 ATS L/33
in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. Bulls are 9-1 ATS L/10 overall.

Bulls are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. Eastern Conference.Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bucks are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Bucks are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


NBA Home
favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-48  ATS L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

The Chicago Bulls to cover

Indiana enters this game against the Motown Pistons rated in the upper tier of my power rankings are a very under rated NBA team , on a overall upward performance  trajectory.  The Pacers rank 6th in offensive production (108.6 ppg) in the league and 8th overall in SRS +1.99. Meanwhile, the Pistons rank 14th in  SRS with a 0.64 , and 22nd in offensive output (102.7 ppg). Detroit owns the better defense, but the numbers according to my head to head charts is minimal . Both are obviously rested, but one of these teams, the Pacers has excelled with added time off thanks to their aggressive run and gun offensive approach. Note: INDIANA is 13-1 ATS  L/14 in road games when playing with 2 days rest.

INDIANA is 28-14 ATS  L/32 vs. division opponents. DETROIT is 10-26 ATS  L/36 when the line is +3 to -3 .

Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Pacers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Pacers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Two teams that don't really like each other, go head to head to day in Boston on Christmas day, in  a place where the Celtics have won and covered 9 straight in this series. I know the Celtics are a much different team than last season splay offs when the teams last met , with the roster having under gone changes, but I'm sure the animosity remains. From a matchup perspective the intangibles remain much the same and now according to my own power rankings the Celtics are even better now as a group, and  here once again  and on home court the men from Beantown have an edge.

WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS  L/18 in road games against Atlantic division opponents .BOSTON is 14-5 ATS  L/19 when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 9-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 795 for bettors.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

The defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a big time Christmas day matchup. I'm sure LeBron James and company will be out looking for redemption here today, after last season beat down in the Finals, and  Golden State will also be out to make sure the status quo remains in play. From my own perspective and matchup/system/players comparisons the Warriors are the superior side with or without Curry in the lineup. Both these teams have explosive offenses , but what sets these teams apart is Golden States ability to play solid defense , behind the 3rd ranked Defensive efficiency ranking in the league  something it seems Cleveland has a problem with as is evident by a 26th ranked defensive efficiency rating. From a SRS perspective the Cavs are ranked 6th in the league with a 2.44 and Golden State ranks 2nd with a 9.48 SRS for a +7 aggregate score making them solid home favorites according to these numbers. Note: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

CLEVELAND is 11-21 ATS  L/33 in all games this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games like the Cavs have are 39-5 SU record L/5 seasons winning SU by an average of 14.9 ppg.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers prepare to play a LA Lakers team that is in a let down situation and on tired legs after playing and losing to the Golden State Warriors last night.

The Blazers will try to extend their winning streak against the Los Angeles Lakers to 14 games vs franchise they have dominated for a long time no matter the circumstances or how good one team has been compared to the other .Los Angeles hasn't defeated the Trail Blazers since March 3, 2014, a 107-106 victory in Portland . The Blazers won seven in a row against the Lakers at Staples Center since its last loss on Feb. 22, 2013. Yes, this is an anomaly but also merits consideration. I know the Blazers played last night as well, and maybe without star G, Damian Liliard tonight, but they get the Lakers at a good time as mentioned above.

Blazers are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record

LA LAKERS are 4-16 ATS L/20 in home games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games.

Play on Portland to cover

The Charlotte Hornets a team that has lost 13 of their L/15 games and on tired legs as they play their 6th game in 10 nights  are in a bad position heading into this tilt vs the Bucks  after losing Dwight Howard and Kemba Walker in last nights 109-104 loss to the Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday night . Now they go  head to head with the Bucks again Saturday night in Charlotte at a disadvantage.The Hornets  also expected to be  without Treveon Graham for a fourth straight game because of back spasms. From a matchup perspective the Hornets even at full strength are at a matchup disadvantage, and do not matchup well vs Milwaukee's three-headed monster of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe who combined for 78 points and had 22 of the Bucks' 26 fourth quarter points last night. With that said, I'm looking only one way at this tilt , and that directly at the Bucks.

 CHARLOTTE is 7-15 ATS   revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Home favorites (CHARLOTTE) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense ( 36.5% or better ), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 18-44 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

The Thunder  enter this tilt with a 16-15  record into a Friday night matchup against Atlanta, a team that's  rebuilding and  7-24 on the season - the worst record in the NBA. I know Atlanta does not inspire bettors but their getting better as a group and still quantifiable DD underdogs,  behind their  two top scorers - Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince. The Hawks dropped from third in the NBA in 3-point shooting to eighth after making only 8-of-29 attempts Wednesday, but their always a viable backdoor cover side because of their downtown abilities. With that said, plug your nose , blind fold yourself and just pull the trigger on the Hawks to cover.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-20 ATS  L/28 as a favorite this season and is 2-10 ATS  L/12 when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS  L/10 after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss are 9-32 ATS L/19 seasons for a go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

Brooklyn may not inspire bettors because of recent ugly performances, but from a matchup perspective according to my own cross reference player system rankings have an edge as home underdogs in this spot play vs the Washington Wizards. The Wizards had a seven-game winning streak snapped in the series in their last visit to Brooklyn, and tonight if they win I'm betting it will not come easily.

WASHINGTON is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more with the average score of those tilts clicking in as follows Washington 110 Opposition 108. WASHINGTON is also just  4-13 ATS L/17 in road games against Atlantic division opponents .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 108-39 SU L/5 seasons winning by an average of 6.8 ppg, for a 74% conversion rate. ( From this league wide trend their is obviously value with taking points here)

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns are two teams struggling to get wins. Both are without key players as Mike Conley the Grizzlies floor general continues to rehab an injury and  the Suns Devin Booker their leading scorer is also not expected back for a few more games.  From a talent perspective the Grizzlies have the edge to find a way to win tonight, despite of the Suns holding home court advantage. However, according to my own matchup systems power rankings Memphis has the edge and is the less of two evils here in this spot  play.

Note: Memphis SRS is -2.43 (ranked 23rd) while Phoenix SRS is -7.58 ranked 29th in the league. Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

NBA Road underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a struggling defensive team ( 102 PPG) are 27-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 775 conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

Chicago enters this game with offensive flow having eclipsed the 100 point plateau in 7 straight games but  have allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their L/18 overall. Now on tired legs after last nights rare strong defensive effort vs Orlando I'm betting they revert back to the norm and allow the explosive Cleveland Cavaliers to light them up for a boat load full of points tonight. Meanwhile, Cleveland has scored an average of over 111 ppg this season, ranking 4th in offense in the league, which includes a porous D, that has allowed 107.4 ppg ranked 23rd worst in the league. Tonight I'm betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this beat Total.

CLEVELAND in 16 games when playing against a team with a losing record this season have seen a combined average of 221.1 ppg go on the board. CLEVELAND is 15-4 OVER    in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread with a combined average of 227.1 ppg go on the scoreboard.

Over is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 20-7 in Cavaliers last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Chicago Bulls enter this game against Orlando , with the 28th ranked offense, and the 13th ranked pace. The Bulls have scored more consistently of late,  but I'm betting they will revert to the mean eventually and more importantly tonight , because of key system discrepancies  which I have pinpointed from a matchup system I have formulated  .  Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic, own the 13th ranked offense and 7 th ranked pace. The Magic have also failed to eclipse the 95 point plateau on offense in 4 of their L/7, and are struggling to stay offensively consistent and I'm betting their production problems will persist  in this spot.

Under is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 home games.Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

CHICAGO is 21-8 UNDER L/29 versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game with a combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER  L/48 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 207.6 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 25-12 UNDER   as a favorite dating back to last season with a combined average 202.6 points per game on going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 38-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Pacers enter this game in a foul mood after  coming off a heart breaking  112-111 last-second loss to the Boston Celtics . Showing their ability to play together , however , is what caught my attention from that game. The Pacers were being thumped by the Celtics for most of the game , but little by little inched their way back showing me this teams tenacity. Now with redemption at hand and a chip on their shoulders, I'm betting they come here with all guns firing. That not a good omen for a Atlanta team, despite of ending a 5 game losing streak last time out,  has still struggled most of this season, in what many consider a rebuilding year for the franchise. Add to that ,Atlanta is banged up and   are without forward Mike Muscala (left ankle) and center Dewayne Dedmon (left tibia) and also have some walking wounded as well as forward Luke Babbitt, and rookie center John Collins  are gradually moving back  into the rotation after missing six games with a sprained left AC joint. I'm really expecting Indiana to romp tonight and recommending we lay the lumber with the road favorite.

Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 39-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

These below SU lines/trends  pertain to historical moneyline outputs that translate into ATS wins based on average margin of victory formula.

NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 34-141 SU L/21 seasons  for a 80% conversion rate for bettors, with the average margin loss coming by 7.7 ppg.

NBA Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (INDIANA) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 94-19  SU L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors winning by an average of 8.7 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Wizards (16-14) enter this meeting  against the Pelicans (15-15) coming off a 106-99 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. That tilt against an upper echelon team  will have the Wizards  very ready to play against the Pelicans two super stars here tonight (Davis and Cousins).  Meanwhile, New Orleans has been largely inconsistent this season, in part thanks to the experiment involving have two big  men ( Davis/cousins) together in the lineup in a increasingly small-ball orientated league. Tonight against a Wizards team that thrives when John Wall is on the floor especially on the  take away the  Bayou visitors will be at a disadvantage even though  they are well rested.  New Orleans is tied for 27th in the NBA with an average of 15.9 turnovers per game and won't be surprised if that number increases here tonight and the difference maker in this game.

Pelicans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

It must be noted that New Orleans allows 111.1 ppg on the road this season, and when the Wizards score 106 to 111 points in game this season they are perfect 8-0 ATS winning SU by an average of 14.9 ppg.

WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS L/11 after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. NEW ORLEANS is 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs. NEW ORLEANS is 5-16 ATS L/21  against Southeast division opponents.

Washington has   won 4 straight  in this series and  covered 5 straight and have won and covered the two most recent games here in DC is this series.

key injury update. NO - Davis rolled his ankle in his last game and if he plays tonight will be less than 100%.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

The San Antonio Spurs have most of their team back, but guards Danny Green and Tony Parker, and forward Kawhi Leonard  were  on the bench nursing injuries or resting to rehab them in their last game, and all three are still less than 100% with the Spurs still trying to get acclimated to Leonard being back in the lineup. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents tonight the Clippers despite of being banged up, are still playing hard and staying competitive and have covered 5 straight games. They also enter this game feeling a little disrespected after a 90-85 loss at Miami last time out, as they questioned the officiating as they felt they were not getting calls at the end of the game, and now have a chip on their shoulders entering this tilt as underdogs .  QUOTE: "I don't know if we would have won the game or not, but I thought we got missed calls down the stretch and I thought that hurt us," Rivers said. "Having said that, I just love our spirit. There are so many reasons not to hang in there, not to play and our guys just keep doing it." END QUOTE

Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Rivers is 18-7 ATS L/25  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more ( SA beat the clippers on Nov 7 by a 120-107 count)

NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a close win by 3 points or less are 24-53 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Celtics will play a Indiana team on tired legs tonight , after the Pacers took part in a 14 point win vs the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday evening. The Pacers know what their up against. The Celtics have won and covered 4 straight and are solid favs here on the road as three points or less according to my own numbers and cross reference system/player matchups.

QUOTE:  "We know how good they are," Indiana coach Nate McMillan said. "We haven't had success against those guys really in the last couple of years. Really, we got try to get out of here quickly, get home and try to defend home court." END QUOTE:

QUOTE: "They're a great team, and we're going to have to be ready to play," Oladipo said of the Celtics. "Simple as that. They're playing really well. They're the number one team in the Eastern Conference. "They do a great job of playing together, and we're going to have to do a great job of playing together as well. It's going to be a tough game, especially coming off a back-to-back, so we're going to have to ready to play."END QUOTE:

Boston has played very well against explosive offensive sides this season, as is evident by a BOSTON is 11-0 ATS  record versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more of their shots this season ( Celtics 105 Opposition 96.3) and is 10-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BOSTON is 15-3 ATS L/18  in road games against Central division opponents.

Celtics are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pacers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.Pacers are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games playing on 0 days rest.  Favorite has covered 6 straight times in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a top-level team   (75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 36-9 SU over the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston  Celtics to cover

Cleveland enters this game off a win vs  the Utah Jazz last night, for their 17th win and 18 trips to the hardwood. I know the Cavs played last night, and pundits continue to look at the Wizards as contenders,  but the old men from Ohio, I'm betting  will still have enough juice left in the tank to dispose of a inconsistent  team they have beaten 4 of the L/5 times SU/ATS . It must also be noted that Sundays seem to be a good day for LeBron James and company as they have won 13 straight  on this day, including 7 in a row as visitors.

Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Cavaliers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Cavs are 9-3 ATS L/12 games Capital One Arena. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA teams like the Wizards -average 3 pt shooting side, (33-36.5%) against a lower tier 3pt defense, (36.5% or worse) are 9-20 SU L/29 after 3 straight games , allowing a shooting percentage 42% or less for 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Houston last night got the revenge they wanted for a Game 7 Western Conference semi final loss  they suffered last season vs the San Antonio  Spurs. It was a start to finish physical and  emotionally charged grueling  win for the Rockets that will now have them on tired legs and in an let  down situation.  Meanwhile, the Bucks are viable side, in this spot despite of them also playing on short rest after last nights sleepy looking loss to long time rivals the Bulls. Note:  Bucks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest and one of the better conditioned teams in  the NBA. The Rockets are just  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Also the  Rockets are also just  1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

MILWAUKEE is 36-17 ATS L/53  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game .HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS  L/22 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots.HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS  L/21 in home games in non-conference games.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game are 15-51 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) 8-30 ATS L/21 seasons  for a 79% go against conversion rate.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Tonight two teams the visiting LA Clippers and their hosts the Miami Heat are  missing key players and suffering through an array of injuries prepare to play each other after both sides played last night. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers, while the Heat are playing without key defensive cog Hassan Whiteside and Justice Winslow. Both have struggled at times, and both are desperate and working hard for wins/losses. Both sides have however, still found ways to win and both have collected victories in 3 of their L/4 outings. From a power rankings perspective and considering my own  margin deficit projections based on correlated  data, suggest we have value with the underdog visitor in this spot. It must also be noted that the Heat have struggled at home this season, and are just  2-13-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record like the Clippers.

Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Heat are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play on the LA Clippers

The Jazz  played a physical game last night in the middle of a 6 game road trip and will now be exhausted  after beating the  Boston Celtics 107-95 on Friday. After last nights game they went out to the airport and  had to fly two hours to play a well  rested Cavaliers team  that has been home for almost a week. Needless to say their game plan tonight will be to survive via a slow paced effort which will effect the overall offensive output for both these teams.  It must also be noted that they Jazz  top big men got banged up last night as Favors (stitches above his eye)  and Gobert (left knee injury) if they play will be less than 100% which will also effect the Jazz offensive output in this spot. With that said, I'm betting on the Jazz third ranked D, and 24th ranked pace to be key elements in a stagnated combined offensive output vs an explosive opponent which will directly effect the combined score to fall below the posted Total.

UTAH is 38-19 UNDER  L/57  in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game.  Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 7-2-1 in Cavaliers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (79% or better), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 28-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on UNDER

Charlotte enters this game having seen a combined average of 212.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers a have seen a combined average of 205 ppg get scored in their road tilts. My own numbers and matchup stats and projections put this total closer to 207, after considering both sides usual pace numbers, which gives us value to the over with this number we are betting into.

PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER in road games after a combined score of 185 points or less which happened in their 95-88 win vs the Magic yesterday. the combined average score of those tilts was 220.3 ppg.
 

CHARLOTTE  in 7 games  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing  14 or less turnovers/game this season, have seen a combined average of 217.9 ppg go on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Both teams will be playing the second half of a back-to-back, with the Trail Blazers having won 95-88 at Orlando on Friday night and the Hornets falling 104-98 at home to Miami. Also two of the leagues premier guards will go head to head, with Blazers Lillard and the Hornets Walker . In the past Lillard has gotten the better of Walker in their head-to-heads winning 7 off the L/10 matchups and I'm betting has the edge again tonight vs a side that has lost 9 of their L/11 games SU.

Charlotte is also on tired legs with a heavy schedule workload of late, which is not a good omen. CHARLOTTE is 10-23 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days

Note: Charlottes futility has been on display quite a bit this season, as they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

Whether this is an anomaly or note its still interesting that CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games on Saturday games.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover  

REVENGE is the name of the game here tonight. Last season, the Rockets were humiliated in Game 7 of their NBA Western Conference final matchup here in front of their own home town fans, losing by a 114-75 count. Now with redemption at hand, and the Spurs dealing with trying to integrate their top players the rusty Kawhi Leonard back into the lineup after a lengthy abscense because of injury, I'm betting the Rockets have the edge and get their revenge and also get us the cover as well.

Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

The rebuilding Bulls are playing a rare  type of blue collar basketball at the moment, something that is rarely seen in the NBA these days. The Bulls have won 4 straight games, and are in top form and playing with a lot of chemistry.   Tonight against their long time rivals the Bucks, they will not be an easy out , thus getting points is a viable wagering opportunity , when comparing both teams current form/systems and player personnel.

Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bucks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bulls are 17-2 vs the Bucks when playing off back to back SU wins.

NBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - lower tier  team - shooting 43%  or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 8-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

The  Utah Jazz despite of owning one of the lower pace numbers in the league  and  strong D , are taking part in some fairly high scoring games of late, with combined scores of 213, 217, 203 combined points going on the board in their L/3 trips to the court. The Jazz themselves have scored 100 or more points in 9 of their L/10, and have allowed 100 or more points in 7 of their L/10. with that said, and this being the Jazz's third straight road game , fatigue will play a major part in more defensive breakdowns in this spot and a wider open game.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics despite of being a solid defensive team as well, are on tired legs after a high scoring run and gun affair vs the Denver Nuggets last time out taking, a 124-118 win, and won't have the energy to play hardcore physical hoops tonight, which I'm betting will make this a higher scoring game than many pundits might anticipate.

Over is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 overall.Over is 25-10-1 in Celtics last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-2 in Celtics last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.

BOSTON in their L/20 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 19-6 OVER  L/25 in home games after a combined score of 235 points with a combined average of 212.8 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 32-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

Oklahoma City enters this game against the Philadelphia 76ers, playing what I would call decent basketball (5-2 SU L/7). I don't think their still 100% acclimated to playing cohesive hoops behind the big three of George, Melo, and Westbrook, but they have made strides in a positive direction  and should continue to improve. As far as tonight's road tilt is concerned , my own numbers and power rankings  suggest that superior side in a head to head matchup is the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Yes, the Sixers are no longer bottom feeders  and have shown a great deal of improvement, but they are still young and from time to time  have provided questionable work ethic as was evident in a recent 4 game losing streak which they snapped last time out. Just to much weight is being placed on players like Embiid and Simmons which leads to fatigue late in games, where guys like the Thunders  Westbrook  thrive.  This I'm betting will be the difference maker here tonight. Note: Westbrook averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists in two wins over Philadelphia last season. Look for the Thunders veterans to be the difference maker as this contest progresses and for the Thunder to get their 17th consecutive win in this series.

Thunder are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Thunder are 16-0 SU L/16 vs the Sixers.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in December games are just 37-65 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Detroit enters this game off ending a 7 straight game losing streak with a 105-91 victory vs Atlanta last night.. Previous to that the Pistons for the most part were competitive despite of the negative results with 4 of the 7 games decided by 5 points or less. QUOTE: "When you're coming off of seven losses, it's tough," guard Langston Galloway told reporters. "You're trying to find your rhythm, find anything you can salvage. When we finally got our rhythm and made stops, we just continued to make that a bulldozer effect." END QUOTE. I'm betting on the Pistons feeding off that momentum tonight. Meanwhile, the Pacers lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out at home, and could easily be in an emotional letdown situation, after a grueling game, that featured the return of Paul George to town. There were a lot of fiery emotions from the crowd and the energy was sky high, so I won't be surprised if the Pacers come out flat here.

The teams split the two previous meetings this season, with the home team winning on each occasion. But from a side perspective , these sides are matched up quite evenly so taking points here is a very viable wagering opportunity.

DETROIT is 8-1 ATS L/9 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Pistons are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pistons are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

Orlando enters this game  struggling to win games in the last month while dealing with a  growing list of  injuries with the walking wounded  scattered all over the place. the Magic are currently in a shambles,  after having lost 14 of their last 17 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile visiting Portland when their getting wins, do it in part because of what I attribute to their solid conditioning. These guys just wear teams out. That's what happened as Portland seemed headed for a sixth straight loss Wednesday but rallied from 16 points down to win at Miami. It was Portland's fourth comeback from a double-digit deficit this season and third in the Eastern Time Zone, where they seem to be able to run and gun with positive results. Yes, I know the Blazers are streaky, which is a good thing as they look for their second consecutive strong effort vs a banged up team, that will find it difficult to keep up on the scoreboard because of their current personnel deficiencies.

 It must be note that  On Nov. 15, the Magic took a 14-point lead early into the second quarter, before Portland came back and grabbed a 99-94 home win.ORLANDO is 0-7 ATS   in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. average score: Orlando 96.7 Opposition 113.9

ORLANDO is 2-11 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS L/13  in road games off an upset win as an underdog.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against another lower tier  defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game are 25-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Lakers enter this game having scored 100 or more points in 12 of their L/13 overall games, in mostly wide open run and gun affairs as they rank No.1 in pace in the league (102.4). On the season the Lakers defense has allowed 108.9 ppg and rank 24th in the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland the Lakers hosts tonight, are ranked 3rd in the league in offense (111 ppg) and are ranked 23rd in defense, in what has become a wide open high scoring entertaining circus. Tonight I expect the Lakers young legs to try to keep up with the senior/star laden Cavaliers lineup in a game that I expect to eclipse the number.

CLEVELAND is 25-12 OVER  L/37 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen the combined average score click in at 224.4 ppg.

Over is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are  44-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER

Brooklyn  will face a stiff challenge trying to contain Kristaps Porzingis Thursday night when it hosts the New York Knicks The Nets in their last meetings vs the Knicks  really struggled when they were handed a 107-86 loss at New York on Oct. 27. Porzingis scored 30 points on 13 of 24 shooting in 29:23.
 I know the Nets have played better of late, defensively, but when they do seem to hold down opponents it changes their own offensive flow to the negative . Brooklyn is allowing 110.6 points per game, which ranks as among the worst in the league and from a  SRS perspective are the inferior of both teams. Brooklyn's  SRS -2.47 while the  Knicks SRS 0.33+. ( Note: SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

According to my own matchup player/system matchup power rankings the Knicks matchup well vs the Nets and get the nod tonight as slight underdogs in game they can win SU.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Rockets' exerted a lot of energy in a  130-123 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night at Toyota Center , that will now have them on tired legs. Last night they had to come back ferociously with a small ball lineup after their defense was torched for the first three quarters, something that will concern the coaching staff , and will have the Rockets more vigilant in transition here this evening vs the Charlotte Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets will want to slow this game down, vs an explosive opponent, as their own offense has been very inconsistent this season,  ranking 20th in offensive rating (103.3) and rank in the bottom 5 in field-goal percentage (27th) and effective field-goal percentage (29th). Charlotte is  also 24th in 3-pointers made (nine) and attempted (25.3) per game. Needless to say, the slower the better, and after last nights run and gun affair, I'm betting the Rockets wont mind a slower paced affair either. Note: The two most recent meetings in this series this season have gone under the Total with 202 combined ppg going on the board in both tilts (Houston won both games).  I'm betting on a similar score tonight.

CHARLOTTE is 26-11 UNDER  L/37 revenging a home loss vs opponent with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win are 24-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz (13-14) enter Wednesday's game having lost three straight and will primed to end their mini slump vs a beatable Chicago Bulls side (6-20). I know the hard working Bulls are on a 3 game win streak, and looked impressive vs the Celtics last time out, winning by a 108-85 count, but despite of that I',m still not sold on this rebuilding team. Note: CHICAGO is 1-13 ATS L/14 in home games after allowing 90 points or less. Also from a matchup perspective, both sides are blue collar lunch pale types, but one team, (Jazz) is far more cohesive and a lot more experienced at playing physical grind it out basketball.


CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. UTAH is 31-15 ATS off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite over the last few seasons.Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record\

Bulls are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more are 23-63 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

The Pelicans enter this home game on tired legs after Monday nights 130-122 run and gun loss to the Houston Rockets and will be at a disadvantage vs a Milwaukee Bucks team on  three days rest.  The Pelican  defense remains a problem, as was the case last night, as they allowed the Rockets to shoot 54.5 % and convert  17 treys . Plus add to that they are now having to deal with not having swingman Tony Allen in the lineup, a defensive standout,(broken leg).

Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Milwaukee is 6-1 L/7 SU overall.

The Bucks are well rested and feeling good about their chances , and I agree with  their star Antetokounmpo assessments  .

QUOTE:"I think we have a unique opportunity here as a team," Antetokounmpo said. "We're doing well right now, and we've got to keep it up. We know that things are going well, we're feeling ourselves right now, playing great as a team, but we've got to keep playing hard."END QUOTE.

NBA Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team ( 5.5 reb/game or less) are 54-14 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers, who visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena, are on a season-high five-game losing streak and desperation is now a key word in describing their situation at the moment. With that said,  I love backing teams like this, that despite of being in a funk, are not playing badly. For example their last two losses have come by 7 points each to Houston and Golden State, thus making this tilt , compared to those battles vs the Heat almost like a leisurely walk in the park.  Also the Blazers have played well on the road this seasons, at 6-5 and while the Heat have been sub par with a 5-6 record as hosts and get my backing as underdogs in this spot.

Trail Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Heat are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

 NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are 9-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, first half of the season are 119-73 ATS L/17 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland Blazers to cover

The Kings enter this game consistently showing slow starts to their games averaging only 23.0 points in the first 12 minutes and have been held below 20 nine times in their 26 first quarters. Meanwhile, the Suns are averaging nearly 24 points in the opening 12 minutes of their past five games, and that includes a 17-point opening quarter in the loss to San Antonio. With leading scorer Booker out, the Suns overall offensive production flow and energy should also be muted.  These  above mentioned kinds of starts can translate into lower scoring games than many might expect, and that's what I m betting on tonight.

SACRAMENTO is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5.Under is 6-1 in Suns last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 19-8 in Kings last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 19-7 in Kings last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - lower tier team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 20-54 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Lakers have won their last two games and enter this game against the NY Knicks with momentum. Meanwhile, the Knicks are also off a win but have not won two games in a row since Nov 22 and I'm betting things wont come easily tonight. This matchup will be a head to head battle of opposite tempos as the  run and gun Lakers (ranked first in the league in possessions per game) will force the  pace vs  the  physical slow paced Knicks (19th in possessions per game). From  a matchup perspective my own power rankings and players and system matchups suggest that the Lakers have the edge on this line and a viable underdog in this spot.

Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Lakers to cover

The Raptors enter this game against the LA Clippers on fire having won 6 straight games, behind an explosive offense, averaging 117 points during their run . Meanwhile, the Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with an emotional win over Washington on Saturday, as Lou Williams' 3-pointer with 1.2 seconds left was the difference maker. Nothing is coming easily for the Clippers without the injured Blake Griffin in the lineup, and tonight their in over their heads vs a run and gun opponent in top form.

Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.Raptors are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles.


NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, first half of the season are 15-43 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 136-75 ATS L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

The slumping Detroit Pistons will host  the revenge minded Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The last time these teams played the Pistons took a 118-108 win as 6 point road dogs. Now the Celtics 5-1 in their L/6 overall get their chance at payback, and I'm betting they get it vs a Pistons team that has lost 5 straight games and playing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum at the moment.

BOSTON is 8-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS  L/16   in road games against Central division opponents. DETROIT is 10-24 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 losing SU by  5 .2 ppg. BOSTON is 18-7 ATS  L/25 as a road favorite of 6 points or less ( Boston 106.2 vs Opp 100.3 )

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 35-9 SU  L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors including 6-1 straight up this season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to win on the moneyline

The bad news Bulls ended a 10 consecutive loss streak last night , in Charlotte , but now on   short rest I feel their at a disadvantage  to record back-to-back wins for the first time this season . Meanwhile, the NY Knicks, have been off since Wednesday and very ready to run here.

CHICAGO is 10-25 ATS  L/35 off a road win.

Knicks are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 vs the Bulls.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more are 23-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate.

NBA  Road favorites (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days against opponent tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 70-37 ATS L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

 These two teams the visiting Magic and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks  are banged up, with a a lot of regulars on the sidelines with injuries, but what's left on the court favors the Orlando Magic according to my own cross reference power rankings. The Magic just beat the Hawks in the first of back to back home and away games, and get the nod again tonight even without 2nd leading scorer Fournier out.

Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Hawks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.Magic are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.

NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are just 11-38 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Wizards  enter this tilt vs the LA Clippers having won 2 consecutive games  behind the offensively explosive Beal's. The  star guard scored 34 points in a Wizards' victory on Thursday at Phoenix and ploughed down  51 points in  a impressive victory Tuesday at Portland. The Wizards are finally awake after being humiliated, by the Utah Jazz before their current mini run by a 116-69 margin.  Meanwhile, their opponents the LA Clippers are short handed and have lost 4 straight. Their not operating very well without Blake Griffin in the lineup, It's been particularly evident on defense where, Los Angeles has given up an average of 114.8 points per game in those 4 losing tilts.

The Wizards are feeling confident  and I'm going to back them here today behind their current  momentum and mind set QUOTE: "Not to take nothing away from these teams, but you've got to look at the teams that we beat," Wizards forward Markieff Morris said about the two-game win streak, according to the Washington Post. "(Thursday) we won a game without their best player (Devin Booker). We got a Clippers team that's got a bunch of players hurt. A Brooklyn team (on Tuesday) that's middle of the pack. So those are games, that in all honesty, we're supposed to win." END QUOTE:

LA CLIPPERS are 1-10 ATS L/11 after one or more consecutive overs this season.Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Clippers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 7-39 SU L/21 seasons. Thus laying 2.5 to 3 points here is a viable wagering opportunity based on this long term trend, and the condition of both teams at the time of this meeting.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

These teams have two of the top defenses in the league. Their numbers are obviously accumulated /calculated from playing all types of teams . However, when looking at a head on matchup, both can score consistently and offensive flow is something that just something that comes with matchups like this. The Celtics average more than 103 ppg on the road, while the Spurs average 106 + ppg at home. When these teams met earlier this season the Boston crew took out the men from San Antonio via a 108-94 ( 202 pts). Tonight I expect a little bit more scoring and a faster pace, as the home town team comes out looking for revenge. I'm betting the Spurs will come out here on fire, and for the Celtics to have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. Even if the game staggers into a proverbial physical battle, both teams ability to light things up in transition will have this tilt eclipse the beatable number.

Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games.Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 overall.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 13-4 in Spurs last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent with a combined average of 210.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 14-4 OVER L/18 versus good defensive teams - allowing 98 points/game or less with a combined average of 199.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points with a combined average of 204.7 ppg going on the board.




NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after a win by 10 points or more are 46-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 45-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

Two teams enduring injuries to key players meet Friday night when the Denver Nuggets visit the  Orlando Magic. Two of the Nuggets top three scorers are out (Jokic, Milisap) while, the Magic 2nd leading scorer Fournier is down and doubtful tonight . What's left on the floor , from a data and matchup perspective favors the Nuggets more balanced lineup and bench strength  . Yes, the Magic have won 3 of their L/5 , but previous to that had lost 9 straight, and are still a team learning to play consistently. The Nuggets have won the last three meetings after a 125-107 victory at home on Nov. 11 and are a viable cover opportunity tonight as well.

ORLANDO is 14-30 ATS L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or more  of their attempts. ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS L/19 after a division game .Magic are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400..

DENVER is 21-10 ATS off a road loss and   is 30-13 ATS L/43 in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Nuggets are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Orlando.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 68-24 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

A lot has been made of how explosive the Cavaliers have been offensively  since their 13 game win streak started. But it must be noted that the Cavaliers have not allowed 5 of their L/7 opponents to eclipse the 99 point plateau and their D is getting better and better as this season has progressed.  The Cavs are also ranked just 14th in pace so their not exactly a run and gun team either. Meanwhile, the Pacers their hosts tonight, have held their last two opponents under 100 points and will be ready to play a physical game here in attempt to derail their hot visitors. The above combination as well as my own analysis of both sides systems, and specific game factors, make this Total weak and I'm betting that combined score ends up on the low side of the number.

INDIANA is 19-4 UNDER L/23 in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents with a combined average of 193.7 ppg going on the board.INDIANA is 19-6 l/25 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 204 ppg going on the board. INDIANA is 22-11 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg clicking in. CLEVELAND is 35-19 UNDER L/54 in road games after 6 or more consecutive wins with a combined average of 193 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Indiana came into Cleveland on Nov1, and beat them soundly in front of their own fans, by a 124-107 count and now with revenge on board the Cavaliers are a viable side to back laying short lumber here on the road. I'm betting on James and company to get their franchise-record 14th consecutive win when they visit the Central Division rival Indiana Pacers on Friday.

Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 46-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The Spurs go head to head with one of the league's never say die teams on Wednesday when they host the Miami Heat at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. On paper not a lot was expected from the Heat, this season, but on the court, their obvious chemistry has made them a team that should not be taken lightly. I know the Spurs are a well coached disciplined team, but the Heat with or without Hassan Whiteside in the lineup offer up a physical opponent, that actually matches up well against the Spurs according to my own cross reference player/system rankings. Look for a grueling tilt , that has the underdog cover the number.

Heat are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

MIAMI is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games.MIAMI is 31-13 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more which happened vs Golden State last time out. Heat HC Spoelstra is 14-4 ATS L/18 in road games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.


NBA team (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are just 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection

Detroit after a fast start to their current campaign , are now a side desperately trying to get back on track , after losing four of their last six, including the past three in a row. Tonight against a Bucks side they matchup well against, I'm expecting a motivated effort and subsequent cover. Meanwhile, their hosts Milwaukee had a season-high three-game winning streak abruptly come to an end on Monday night with a 111-100 loss in Boston. The Bucks have been very inconsistent this season, and have not sustained any real momentum, thanks in part to a ugly 3-point defense that is ranked dead last in the league at 40.2 percent, and 19th in the league in opponents' overall shooting rate at 46.4 percent.MILWAUKEE is 7-23 ATS L/30 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.

DETROIT is 22-9 ATS L/31 vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents.MILWAUKEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse.

DETROIT is 10-2 ATS L/12 when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

Pistons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are just 10-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

The Knicks are expected to get back offensive threat Kristaps Porzingis for tonight's game vs the Grizzlies. He has had a lot of nagging injuries and is still not 100%. However, a player I have tabbed as even more important to the Knicks , is Tim Hardaway  JR who maybe side lined for a couple of weeks. QUOTE: Tim was not only a scorer for us, he helped activity, drove to the basket," Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek said. END QUOTE:

With Hardaway Jr, out I expect the Knicks flow maybe tampered with and the team as whole will take time to adjust to him being sidelined.

I know the Grizzlies may not inspire bettors, because of an extended funk they suffered through recently , but they are viable opponents here and off a win last time out, and have played good ball for at least the last 14 quarters ( 3 games).

Grizzlies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 42-20 SU L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

Washington was thoroughly embarrassed last night by the Utah Jazz 116-69  at Utah. The Wizards' point total matched the single-game low for any team in the NBA this season.After that shellacking you can bet this team will be primed to bounce back and get back some respect and redemption. Remember pros don't like to be embarrassed as it effects their future abilities to make a living in this league and for contract negotiations. Every player on this Wizards team has been a star at some level of their hoops careers and most of them have been winners. So needless to say its not like they won't be able to have the mindset needed to rebound in what could be described as desperation. I know John Wall has been injured and is a key cog for this Wizards team, but without him in the lineup the other night they still won vs Detroit by a 109 91 count and have the ability to play solid ball with the lineup they have entering this game. Meanwhile, Portland has lost two straight at home, and are struggling on offense at the moment, and look ripe for getting upset again.  With that said, I'm recommending we back the Wizards to get is the cover here tonight.

Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.Trail Blazers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Trail Blazers are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games.

WASHINGTON is 32-17 ATS L/49 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.

Play on Washington to cover

Utah comes in having won six consecutive games, including a 116-69 home win over the Washington Wizards on Monday. It takes a lot of energy to beat up on a team the way the Jazz did last night, and they could easily be running on fumes as they play back to back nights. I know that Oklahoma City seems  to be treading water, but their are some positive statements and on floor flow, that look like Carmelo Anthony , Eddie George and Russell Westbrook might finally be starting to jell and find some rhythm together. For one Anthony is now playing a different role, and adjusting well to it , as he picks up on his assist ratio. Anthony is averaging 41.3 passes per game on the season, but he averaged 46 over the past two contests. QUOTE:

"At this point, we're in the process of still trying to figure it out, still trying to see how we want to play," Anthony said. "As we're still trying different things out there, for me personally, it's about doing something different, seeing where the team really needs me on a night-to-night basis and just be willing to sacrifice. "Not every night do I have to score 20 or 30 points. I'm good with that. It's a good feeling as long as we're winning."END QUOTE.

Those kinds of statement and thought processes are good for  dressing room morale and translate well onto the court. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the home team tonight.

Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA team (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are  5-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 86% for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Memphis has lost 11 straight after Saturdays heart braking 116-111 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was one of the Grizzlies best efforts of late, and the first time they cracked the 100 point plateau in scoring in 7 straight games. Tonight, exasperated, and feeling dejected, their desperation may turn into a defeatist mindset which will not serve them well vs a talented young Minnesota group, that is more than capable of taking a road win here as short favs.

MEMPHIS is 3-12 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%.MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.MEMPHIS is 1-8 ATS after playing a road game this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - struggling team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are jus 5-41 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate SU including 0-5 this season.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

Chicago does not have the offensive firepower to score a lot of points and keep track with a side like the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls have only eclipsed the 100 point plateau 5 times in their L/18 games, and average just 92.8 ppg at home this season with a overall 30th ranked offensive efficiency in the league . Needless to say it won't be hard to imagine the Bulls wanting to slow this tilt down to a crawl or just make it physically grueling on a veteran side. All in all I expect the total combined output of this affair to fall short of the lines-makers projections because of these key factors.



CHICAGO is 17-5 UNDER L/22 in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 202 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 194.1 ppg going on the board.

Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 20-7 in Bulls last 27 home games.Under is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.




NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 35-11 UNDER  L/20 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Atlanta Hawks go  head to head with the Brooklyn Nets for the back end of a home-and-home set this Monday night.The Hawks took out  the Nets  Saturday with a 114-102 victory and now the men form Brooklyn come looking for revenge, and I'm betting they get it.

BROOKLYN is 17-7 ATS L/24 in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent .

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS L/9 overall.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are 9-21 L/5 seasons for 70% go against conversion rate.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 45-78 L/5 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Spurs continue to play decent ball despite of being without  Kawhi Leonard and are 15-7 SU without him in the lineup. The Spurs have won four consecutive games and 11 of their last 14 and this veteran laden team with one of the all time great NBA HC behind the bench are dangerous underdogs, and must be respected . Tonight against a very inconsistent Thunder side, that is still learning to play as a team behind the star trio Paul George and Carmelo Anthony added to superstar Russell Westbrook who  are volatile in their coordination as a group.

SAN ANTONIO is 23-8 ATS  L/31 in December games .Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play on San Antonio to cover

After facing the explosive Golden State Warriors last time out this trip to NY to play the  Knicks  will be like taking walk in Central Park.  Meanwhile, the Knicks  know the  Magic are not an easy  out especially playing without their leading scorer  Porzingis. (25.8 ppg), who is injured ( ankle) and if he plays will see limited minutes. It must be noted that the last time the NYK played without their star they lost a  112-99 tilt at Orlando on Nov. 8th. With that said, and on the flip side look for emerging Magic star Aaron Gordon, to be the catalyst behind his teams cover and or win today. Note: the Magic are ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive production, and the Knicks are ranked 18th.

New York also could be without first-round pick Frank Ntilikina, who also has a sprained ankle -- his left , and is listed as questionable.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - struggling defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 47-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando to cover

The Blazers recently took four of five games on their last road trip and than came home in an emotional letdown state and looked asleep at the proverbial  wheel in a home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.QUOTE: "The first game back home is a set-up for a letdown," point guard Damian Lillard said. "We talked about that before a game. We wanted to come out and play above that, but (the Bucks) came in ready. They played a great game, and we made one too many mistakes to give ourselves a great chance to win it." END QUOTE

Now rested and getting used to home cooking again, I expect we will see the upward trending Portland Trailblazers at their best vs a Pelicans team that they look to get revenge on for a 103-93 loss to back on Oct 24th in the Bayou.

NEW ORLEANS is 2-16 ATS L/18 in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs .

Note: Anthony Davis if he plays tonight will be less 100%.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

I know Sacramento may not inspire bettors but they have been very competitive  of late, and have only failed to cover 2 of their L/8 games. Now with revenge on board for a recent loss to the Bucks where they were not competitive losing by a 112- 87 count, I'm betting they will be more prepared. That above mentioned loss came right after the Kings upset the Golden State Warriors , and they were in an emotional let down spot and the Bucks took advantage of it.

 I'm betting the Bucks downfall or inability to cover this DD line, is their rocky defensive rhythm as is evident by  being ranked last in the  league with a 17.5 percent offensive rebounding mark  while ranking near the bottom in defensive rebounding (76.7 percent). The Kings have been working hard on this part of their game, and have shown tenacious work habits for a blue collar team and must be respected here today.

Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bucks HC Kidd is 19-40 ATS L/59  after 2 or more consecutive wins.MILWAUKEE is 3-15 ATS  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games .MILWAUKEE is 17-39 ATS L/56 as a favorite of 10 or more points.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are just 8-21 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of  73% for bettors.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 60-29 ATS L/21 seasons, for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

My own projections on this game based on power rankings and system matchups tells me of a high probability situation that favors the  OVER. The  Bucks have gone Over in 11-1 of their  last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record like the Kings. Meanwhile, the Kings have gone over in 5 of their L/6 , and from a divisional standpoint have cruised over the Total in 8 of their L/9 vs Central teams and have gone over in 6 of their L/8 on the road. both teams are playing decent ball at this time, and I'm betting they run at each other in a tilt that ends up being higher scoring than the lines-makers might anticipate.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.

MILWAUKEE in their L/27 games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  46% or  more have seen a combined average score of 211.2 ppg get scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 52-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. The average combined score of those tilts was 206.5 ppg.

Play OVER