Golden State continues their quest for another NBA championship and are currently in top form  having  won five straight as they host the downtrodden Brooklyn Nets this Tuesday night. Despite of the Warriors over whelming fire power and superior record compared the  the Brooklyn Nets  recent meetings  in this series ,have been competitive .

The last time these teams played the Nets made  the Warriors work hard  for a 118-111 win  at home in November. It must also be noted that  six of their last seven games at Golden State have been decided by nine or fewer points, with one loss going to overtime. Recently despite of their continued futility the Nets have shown some fight, as their L/3 road losses have been decided by a total margin of 14 points ( 4.66 ppg). With that said, lets plug our noses, closes our eyes and  quickly squeeze the proverbial trigger on the Nets to cover taking points.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-19 ATS  L/27 against Atlantic division opponents.Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.BROOKLYN is 30-20 ATS  as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a top-tier team (Win Pct. 70% or better) this season. 

Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are a long term quality wager, going 241-160 ATSL/21 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover

I don't make a habit of laying a lot of lumber with my NBA selections, but every now and than playing chalk makes sense. Right now NY is just playing out its schedule, and despite of a hungry group of bench players and G League scrubs getting a lot of court time they  are still fade material vs a Portland side currently in top form, as is evident by winning 7 straight. The Blazers have also only lost once in their L/14 at home in the Moda Center where they consistently play their best hoops behind super star Damian Liilard. The Knicks have lost in 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Blazers, including a 103-91 defeat at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 27  and once again look like they will end up on the wrong side of a lopsided score.
QUOTE: "We're really showing our growth," Lillard said. "We're continuing to stay locked in. Right now, we're playing good basketball. If shots aren't falling, we're not letting that dictate how we defend, how we communicate and our energy. We're controlling games with our consistency." END QUOTE:

Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Knicks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NEW YORK is 3-13 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season with the average margin of defeat coming by 12.6 ppg.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-55 SU losing by an average of just under 10 ppg.

Play on Portland to cover

The Bucks and Pacers go head to head for the second time in less than a week in Central Division action this Monday night . The last time they played it was a hard fought affair. Pacers managed to eek out a  103-96 win at Milwaukee  despite of nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Now in the return bout, I'm expecting to the Bucks to have a good chance of returning the unsavory favor of dumping the Pacers in front of their own fans and more importantly get us the cover. It must be noted that the Bucks and their  Greek Freak looked to be coming out of a mini slump when he provided his team with 35 points in a come from behind win vs Philadelphia last night . When this top tier baller is on his game, the Bucks are hard to defeat, and I'm betting he will be the catalyst for his team to cover in this spot. Yes, I know Indiana has played well of late, and off two consecutive road upsets. But in the past this has not be a good scenario for the Pacers as they are  just 2-12 ATS  L/14 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog.

Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.Pacers are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are just 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-28 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Bucks enter this game against the Sixer's slumping ( 4 straight losses) but they are more than capable of turning things around, and  have won or tied the last five season series with Philadelphia  .Each team has won once on its home court already this season . QUOTE: "We can't worry about these last couple games," Middleton said. "I know they were big games for us; we lost them, we've been through it before. Now we've just got to bounce back, pull together and show the kind of team that we are." END QUOTE. With that said, I'm expecting a big time effort here from the Dr.Jekyll  and Mr. Hyde Bucks in this spot.

76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.

MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS  L/25 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last few seasons.MILWAUKEE is 84-48 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses .aVERAGE COMPOSITE score: Bucks 99 Opp 99.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

 These two rebuilding programs have gone through a lot of struggles this season, and both have looked a little winded here late in the campaign. A team that is particular tired are the young Suns, as was evident against Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, falling 124-116 despite 39 points from emerging star Devin Booker. QUOTE: "I think we probably fatigued a little bit," Phoenix interim coach Jay Triano told reporters afterward. "I don't know if our guys are used to playing at that level for that long of a period of time, but that's what we'll get to." END QUOTE. Today here in Atlanta I'm expecting their tired legs to effect the Suns, and they won't be up to taking part in a run and gun affair, which is just fine for a Atlanta side that prefers a slower pace behind a 26th ranked offensive effecnicy rating. With that said, I'm betting we see the combined score of this affair to stay below the number.
 
Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have stayed under including the L/4 here in Georgia.

Under is 11-2 in Suns last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games. Under is 20-9 in Suns last 29 games following a straight up loss. Under is 17-8 in Suns last 25 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 21-7 in Hawks last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

ATLANTA is 21-7 UNDER  L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored .  PHOENIX is 16-7 UNDER  L/23 after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored.

NBA All teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA/PHOENIX) - in a game involving two struggling teams (25% to 40%), second half of the season are 38-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play on the UNDER

The Kings enter this game in a positive state of mind and momentum on their sides as they come off a home victory. Sacramento's 116-111 overtime winner over the Brooklyn Nets ended a four-game home losing streak and a five-game skid overall. The Kings will face a  Utah Jazz side off a revenge win last night vs Minnesota  on tired legs and susceptible to being in a letdown situation vs a team that they could easily be over looking. Note: Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Jazz are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a home win against a division rival, on Saturday games are 17-42 SU L/5 seasons for 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Spurs,  have lost four of their past five games and seven of their last 10 trips to the hardwood, and are now in need of getting their ship righted and quickly before the post season arrives. Tonight against a Lakers side that they have revenge against for a 93-81 upset loss earlier this season, I expect Popovich and company to come out here with all guns blazing in the friendly confines of the AT & T Center where they own a 22-7 SU record . It must be noted that Popovich is a perfect 12-0 SU in his career vs Pacific division sides with revenge for a same season loss and once again looks to notch a win and more importantly a cover.

Spurs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 1-10 SU L/11 after playing in Miami. ( That's a place where a lot  ballers go over board with extra curricular activities and hangovers for young groups like the Lakers are common.)

NBA  Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games are 41-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

The young Suns broke an 0-for-February run with a 110-102 victory at Memphis on Wednesday and now have a little momentum on their sides as they face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Friday night in Arizona.  Phoenix took a  114-100 victory over Oklahoma City seven weeks ago , and strangely enough according to my system vs system power rankings matches up well against the Thunder. Considering how the Thunder consistently play down to lower tier opponents it will not be a difficult decision to take the points with home side in this spot.

Suns are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-16 ATS  as a road favorite this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-11 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS L/28 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  46% or worse this season.

NBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 26-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 10-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover

The mighty Golden State Warriors visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night at Capital One Arena in a game that I'm betting will be a lot closer than the linesmakers may anticipate. The    Wizards in their last trip to the hardwood took  107-104 victory in Milwaukee on Tuesday for their third win in four games since the All-Star break . Washington is 10-3 without injured point guard John Wall

.In these teams' first meeting, the Warriors trailed by 10 at home after three quarters, but rallied for a 120-117 win Oct. 27. No body in this league matches up well against the Warriors, but from a system vs system stand point I'm betting the Wizards have an edge despite of playing last night.

Washington has covered 10 of their L/13 overall. Golden State is just 14-16 ATS on the road this season.Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

WASHINGTON is 17-7 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS  as an underdog this season.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are just 18-44 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento despite of playing last night are viable underdogs in this spot vs Portland thanks to this line be over exaggerated by the lines-makers. The Kings lost 118-110  to Minnesota on Monday  but have been competitive overall and have  been in position in the fourth quarter to win their previous three contests, despite of suffering losses in those tilts. Previous to those games they beat Dallas.  Note: Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on NO rest. The Kings have also covered 10 of their L/16 overall, while Portland has covered just 14 of 29 at home this season for sub. 500 ATS record as hosts. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

SACRAMENTO is 36-13 ATS  in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier  defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

Charlotte enters this game playing some pretty good basketball at the moment, as their 4 game win streak would suggest. However, this Hornets teams is far from being  consistent and  slightly being over rated by the lines-makers tonight as home chalk.Meanwhile, the Bulls in a rebuilding season, are struggling mightily, but have been competitive enough to warrant being backed as DD dogs vs this type of team, based on my own system to system analysis .  The Bulls are 2-0 against the Hornets this season and have won each of the last four meetings. 

Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bulls are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings.

CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS  L/32 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS   against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS  L/12 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.CHARLOTTE is 2-16 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 4-17 ATS  L/21 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread.CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Tuesday nights are 46-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - strong offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 24-57 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

The Hornets are 0-18 SU/ 1-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers.

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

Houston has averaged 123 points during  a current 12 win streak.  However, the Jazz are a side that can present any team in the NBA some problems in their current form  after winning 12 of their last 13 games. The Jazz have also held 10 of its last 13 foes  below 100 points and deserve respect here in their own back yard. After playing last night, I expect the Rockets to be on tired legs and for the high altitude of Salt Lake City to be hard on them. Note: Houston is just 2-8 ATS L/10 with no rest, while the Jazz are 7-3 ATS as home dogs this campaign.

Utah has been winning SU but not covering spreads regularly.... However,  HC Snyder is 8-0 ATS  L/8 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

NBA teams (HOUSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are 51-93 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors on the blind.

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-78 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (UTAH) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 103-60 ATS L/5 seasons L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Utah to cover

Tonight's Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks game features two teams operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Indiana has won 4 straight, while, the Mavericks are on a four-game losing streak . The Mavs have only notched 3 wins in their L/14 overall but Nine of the Mavericks' last 14 losses are by single digits, and they must not be underestimated as home dogs in this spot.

DALLAS is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.

 The Pacers are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and it is after the All-Star break.   losing SU by an average of 9.5 ppg.

Play on Dallas to cover

Orlando enters this tilt on a 5 game losing streak, but they have been competitive in their L/15 trips to the hardwood covering 10 times and only twice during that span have lost by more than 10 points. The Magic also beat their hosts  tonight the Thunder earlier this season by a 121-108 count and actually matchup well against them from a system to system standpoint. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of their top tier talent, have been largely inconsistent this season. This unbalanced basketball is exemplified on  the ATS board where the Thunder have covered only 3 of their L/8 games. Tonight the up and down Oklahoma City hoops team now find themselves in  a precarious spot as they enter this game in an emotional letdown mode after getting slapped around by Golden State 112-80 last time out and are susceptible to a down effort.

Orlando is 4-1 ATS L/5 meetings in this series and have covered 5 straight here in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-10 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-20 ATS L/26 versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%or more this season.

Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - lower tier rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have won SU 23 of the L/33 opportunities.

NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 20-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

I have this way of going against the grain from time to time, and that's what I'm dong here this Sunday as I fade a 76ers team that owns the  Eastern Conference's longest current winning streak ( 8 games) . Meanwhile, the   Washington Wizards  are 8-3 in its last 11  despite of playing without key cog  John Wall to a knee injury are viable opponent for NBA opponents here at home in DC. The Wizards won three straight road games before getting smacked around by a  122-105 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, but will be now be ready for a bounce back performance on their own home floor. Note:WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  It must be noted that the Wizards  seem to play their best hoops against top tier teams and have recent wins vs  Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Cleveland and I'm betting the young Sixer's are next on their hit list.

Washington has won the last seven home meetings with Philadelphia and 20 of the last 26.

WASHINGTON is 15-7 ATS  L/22 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season.

NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 80-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

Houston enters this game against Denver having won  11 straight games  and  have notched victories in 18 of their  last 20 games. But  will play without Eric Gordon (18.5ppg) which I'm betting effects their offensive flow here in the high altitude of the Rockies  this evening.  Meanwhile, Denver has won 10 of 13 and are  7-1 SU in February and could find the sledding tough behind their 17th ranked PACE vs a Houston team that can also play some solid D, as is evident by holding 4 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points and ranked 9th in the league in defensive rating. Despite both teams current explosive forms , this line according to my own projections is slightly bloated to the upside and gives us a viable opportunity to cash taking an under stance.

Under is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-4-1 in Rockets last 15 road games.

HOUSTON is 22-10 UNDER  L/32 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 217 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER  L/21  in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average score of 216.2 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER /HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 37-9 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 214 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER

Philadelphia plays their best defensive basketball at home this season , and in recent action have  not allowed 5 of their L/8 opponents to score more than 98 points when playing as hosts. Overall leading up to the all star break the Sixers allowed an average of just 94.8 ppg in 5 games all wins and are currently ranked 4th in the league in Defensive effecnicy .  They did take part in a high scoring affair in their first game after the break, but will now be prepared to clamp down defensively vs a inconsistent Orlando offense ( Ranked 19th in Off Effecnicy). I'm betting on a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER  L/12  in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 20-11 UNDER   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 41-11 and 6-0 this season UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing  five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested  road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after   having  won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest.

 Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver.

NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling  defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on San Antonio to cover

After almost a weeks rest both these very capable offensive sides will be fresh and ready to run and gun here as they prepare to start the stretch drive towards the play offs in a game that my projections suggest will eclipse this number.

Cleveland Ranks 5th in offensive output in the NBA and 27th in points allowed and  29th in defensive effecnicy . Leading up to the all star game the Cavs registered 140,123, 121, 120 in offensive production  4 straight games.  Washington ranks 9th in offensive effecnicy and 15th in points allowed. Washington has scored 101 or more ppg in 10 straight games and have allowed 11 of their L/13 opponents to put 100 or more points on the board.

WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER L/8 off 2 or more consecutive road wins with a combined average score of 230.5 ppg scored.  Washington  is 20-6 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 228.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 15-4 OVER L/9 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  46% or more - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 223.6 ppg clicking in on the score board. CLEVELAND is 17-6 OVER L/23  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 223.3 ppg going on the board.CLEVELAND is 10-2 OVER  after scoring 120 points or more this season with a combined average score of 223.7 ppp ringing in on the board.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND/WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 28-4 OVER L/5 seasons and a 6-0 so far this season for dual 88% and 100% conversion rates for bettors.

Play OVER

With this being the last game before both sides launch their mini vacations during the all star break, I expect both will feel energized and ready to run and gun tonight, as they also know an extended rest is on the way.

Denver enters this game having won 5 of their L/6 behind an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Bucks also rank 6th (110.6)  in the league in offensive efficiency and  22nd  ( 109.7) in defensive efficiency   Meanwhile, Milwaukee despite of being inconsistent, are ranked 12th in the league in offensive effecnicy  rating (108.9 ppg) and 16th in defensive efficiency ( 108.7 ) and in this type of matchup vs an explosive offense will have to speed up their pace, which in turn will have them go above their current ratings, which will translate in to a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect.

DENVER is 38-21 OVER  L/59 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 22-8 OVER  L/30  in road games after a combined score of 225 points with a combined average of score of 222 ppg scored. DENVER is 31-18 OVER  L/49 in non-conference games with a combined average of 222.4 ppg scored.Malone is 40-19 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Central.Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing decent ball since Jason Kidd was fired, but I'm still not completely sold on them going forward. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are also in top form and have won 5 of their L/6 overall via an explosive offense averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Nuggets according to my power rankings are playing their best hoops of the season and must be respected here as underdogs. Note: Denver is 15-2 ATS L/17 as an underdog in this series. From a SRS perspective Denver owns a  +0.88 mark while Milwaukee clicks in at  -0.18. ( SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) With that said, we have value with taking points here.

Milwaukee is just 33-67 ATS at home as chalk  in  non conference home  tilts of late.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-11 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Despite losing 130-123 at Dallas on Saturday, the Lakers are playing some very competitive basketball of late , and have won 12 of their l/17 games and have upward momentum on their sides and are up trending in my power rankings.   The Lakers newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas came off the bench Saturday in his Lakers' debut and scored 22 points and had six assists in 31 minutes and is a very nice addition to this young team. Meanwhile, New Orleans, are still adjusting to playing without  DeMarcus Cousins, and must not be over estimated in their abilities despite of upsetting Detroit Pistons last time out  (118-103). It must also be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog .

Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and  are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Road team is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 meetings

LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS as a home favorite over the last few seasons.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

The Clippers have surprisingly won four of their last five games and are 4-2 since  a trade  sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons. Needless to say the Boston Celtics will not be over looking them despite of this Clippers team going into rebuild mode. Considering both teams rosters  and current systems, the head to head matchup favors the home team by 7 points according to my own numbers giving us value on a basic 5 point home advantage line.

Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)  are 31-2 SU for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at 10.6 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Two banged up teams the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets go head to head tonight in the Mile High City. The Spurs after playing last night in Utah wont; have the legs to run and gun tonight, and with key offensive weapons Leonard and Aldridge sidelined don't have as much scoring punch as usual.   Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets , continue to play without Paul Milsap, and have a bevy of walking wounded that are playing at less than 100%, and welcome the all star break that is on the horizon. This above combination of circumstances I'm betting will result in a much lower combined score than the lines-makers expect.

SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.2 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 UNDER   when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season of 194.7 ppg scored and 13-2 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 191.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 50-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony  back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence  , and  the positive  energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in  what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away.

CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS  L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS  L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS  L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

 The last time these teams played  they took part in  wild 148-124 shootout, that saw the Thunder shoot 58%+ FG, and the Cavs 51%.. However, it  seems both coaches were not happy with their own defenses, especially the Cavs Lue, and now I expect he makes sure his team is ready to be more physical, and more defensively responsible in transition, which I'm betting makes this a slower game than many expect.

CLEVELAND in their L/21  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more have seen a combined average score of 217.2 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 L/29 UNDER  against Central division opponents with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win are 42-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 755 conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.7 ppg.

Play UNDER

We all now how explosive Houston's offense is, but many do not notice that they are defensively efficient , as they rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  ie Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Recently the Rockets have been tough on opposing offenses holding 3 of their L/6 opponents to 97 points or less. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of taking part in a lot of higher scoring affairs this season, remarkably owns the 23rd ranked pace, and tonight, I expect they will be even more deliberate in their approach, vs a powerful offense. With that said, and according to both teams expected style of play, and road vs home scenarios I'm betting on a total score that does not eclipse this total.

 Rockets are 5-0-1 UNDER  last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games.Under is 34-15-2 in Rockets last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 7-0 on the road with a combined average score of the away games clicking in at 206.2 ppg. HC' DAntoni is 25-4 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score  of 213.9 ppg on the board.  HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER   in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 32-11 UNDER  L/43 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or over ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

San Antonio is banged up with some key injuries but still have enough talent to put some points on the board here and keep track with the red hot Utah Jazz a team that is averaging 117.6 ppg  in offense over the L/7 games during their 9 game win streak. Considering the Jazz played last night I doubt they will be prepared to play a lot of defense here and I'm anticipating a much more wide open game because of this. With that said, I'm recommending we take an over stance in this spot.

UTAH is 21-7 OVER  L/28 against Southwest division opponents with a combined average of 204.5 ppg on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER L/19 with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored  in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points.

NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on back-to-back days are 37-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record,  this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money,  and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency  still  being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say  Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know  the Knicks played last night and the  Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the  Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line.

76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points.

PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS  L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just  0-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS  as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy  for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and  are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

DALLAS is 14-6 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is  just 7-17 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).

Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however,  I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated,  thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional  peak a vegas lines)

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS  L/11  in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a  defense  allowing  (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

The Orlando Magic are  playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with  three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall.  It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic  are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline.  With Augustin as a starter  the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS  L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall.

Play on Orlando to cover

The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment,  having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted  Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot.

UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS  L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah  Jazz to cover

As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak,  I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the  Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company.

Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova  and  G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries.

MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be  short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and  heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.

DENVER is 11-3 ATS L/14  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. HOUSTON is 5-18 ATS L/23 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23or more assists/game .HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS  L/26 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate .

Play on Denver to cover

The Dallas Mavericks visit a tired looking  Golden State Warriors team on Thursday night that has lost 3 of their L/4 overall. The last time the Mavs came to town  the Warriors took a  112-97 win and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. Note: Dallas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 while, the Dubs have gone under in 3 straight tilts.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER  L/10 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 15-7 UNDER   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg going on the board. DALLAS is 21-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 UNDER  L/26 after 3 or more consecutive unders dating back to last season with the combined average score of 215.3 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 27-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more  of their free throws, in February games are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

 Portland as the season has progressed has reverted back to their old run and gun style of play and has improved its offensive production now ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating (105.2). The Blazers' defense has  also gotten progressively worse and after being in the top 10 for a long time  and are now  ranked 11th at 104.9. ppg. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 18th in points allowed, and 14th in offense, with a combined average of 212.8 ppg scored. (106.4 ppg in both categories). From  matchup perspective and a projections system I have used for 14 years,  I'm expecting both sides to play a faster paced game then usual, and for the this combined score to eclipse the number.

My projection has both sides scoring more than 105 points each- Note: PORTLAND is 20-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.CHARLOTTE is 49-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game with a combined average of 230.3 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 226.4 ppg clicking in on the board. PORTLAND is 12-2 OVER L/14  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg being registered.

Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons

HC Stotts is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 43-14 OVER L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Washington Wizards despite of not having All-Star John Wall  in the lineup conjured up a     five-game winning streak before abruptly having it end in their last trip to the hardwood. The victorious run included wins vs Oklahoma City  and  Toronto.  Meanwhile, their opponents the Boston Celtics also had their ,  four game win streak ended when they were beaten up on by Toronto last time out  111-91  thud. Now these teams will both be looking to get back on track. Both according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched, with home court advantage being the difference maker and their ability to outduel their opponents via top tier  ball movement and balanced scoring .

WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last few  seasons. Washington has won 5 of the L/7 meetings at home in this series SU. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more are 8-54 SU L/21 seasons for a87% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

The Knicks enter this game  having lost four games in a row and seven of their last nine and  are obviously in bad form, and to make matters worse they have to play without a key offensive cog because of an injury to Porzingis  and also to guard Ron Baker (right shoulder surgery) and center Enes Kanter (oral surgery). If Tim Hardaway Jr. plays for NYK he has been fairly unproductive and rusty and won't help their offensive cause much. This will of course effect the Knicks offensive flow tonight vs one of the leagues top teams the Toronto Raptors , which in turn will effect the total combined score of this tilt in downward fashion. The Knicks know they have to find a way to slow this game down and make it physical, and that's what I'm betting they will do which will aid us in cashing an under bet here. The Four most recent meetings in this series have all not eclipsed this Total.

Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 overall.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.

TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER   after a division game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors .

Play UNDER

Orlando is play very good basketball at the moment, winning 3 of their L/4 games and are off beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.Since a 130-113 defeat  at Washington, the Magic are at .500 ( 5-5)  in their last 10 games. Four of the losses during that run are by single digits and four victories came  against teams with above.500 records Meanwhile. Atlanta has also won 2 straight, but my own power rankings suggest the Magic have the edge on their own home court. With that said, I am recommending we take the points in this spot.

Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 53-96 L/21 seasons for a 65% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

It's official the lines-makers have finally thrown in the towel on the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavs completely embarrassed themselves in a  116-88 loss  to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. Absolutely pitiful is the best two words I can use to describe that effort . It truly sickening to watch a talented team like this implode, which seems to be the case as HC Tyronn Lue can't seem to stomach watching this calamity unfold, and  has left the last two games at some point because of undisclosed illness. Despite of that last nasty effort, I'm still grasping on to my power rankings that suggest we have a live home dog here with what still must be considered a championship calibre team. With pride on the line, and revenge on board for a Cleveland's loss to the  Wolves on Jan. 8, in  Minnesota via a ugly 127-99 beating I'm actually going to recommend we take the points here. I know this is a contrarian viewpoint, but my convictions about this team, are still at least for now solid . With the Cavs showcasing a 19-7 SU record at home this season, I'm betting they dig deep here in play an inspired game in front of their fans , and get us the cover. QUOTE: "Just got to keep pushing," said LeBron James, who scored only 10 points the last time the Cavs played Minnesota. "Stay positive, keep pushing. Try to get better. That's where it's at for me. We've got another opportunity tomorrow playing against a very good team that beat us up pretty good in Minnesota before. We look forward to the challenge. We've got to come out with the right game plan, we've got to come out with a sense of urgency and we've got to play the game the right way and try to sustain some good basketball for 48 minutes." END QUOTE:

Minnesota has lost 4 of their L/7 overall, and  is 7-17 ATS  L/24  in road games in non-conference games .Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. are 33-9 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

These two teams the Jazz and Grizzlies are currently playing at the opposite ends of the proverbial performance spectrum of late, with Utah on a 6 game win streak while the Grizzlies are on 4 game losing streak. Despite of the their current discrepancies   ,  their is value backing the home dog on what is a slightly bloated number. I know the Grizzlies played last night, but they did not exert much energy, in a lifeless loss to Atlanta, and recently have shown resiliency and good conditioning as they are 4-0 ATS L/4 back to backs, and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and  6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-2-1 ATS L/10 at home overall. Meanwhile the Jazz are Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This ticket is not based on which side is better at the moment, but is based on the mathematics associated with spread betting, and according to my numbers and power rankings we  have value taking points.

Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA teams like  (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are just 40-77 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

The Rockets are off a win in Brooklyn last night by a  123-113 count  and now prepare to visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena . The Rockets now  on tired legs  just won't have as much energy to run and gun as they usually do . Add to that they will play a very physical defensive side, lead by Hassan Whiteside,  that are  well equipped to slow the Rockets  down. With that said, I won't be surprised if the visitors  produce below their season offensive average in this spot.  On the flipside,  the Heat ranked 28th in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency,   and off a couple of dubious lackluster defensive  performances, will  be primed to bounce back and play solid D, in a building where they have held 3 of their L/4 opponents to 91 point or less. Houston must also not be underestimated in their ability to play solid D, as they have held 5 of their L/10 opponents to 99 or less points and rank 9th in the league in defensive rating. The above combinations bode well for this score staying on the low side of the Total.  

Note: Miami in 7 of their L/15 overall have seen them and their opponents fail to eclipse the 99 point plateau in a game. MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 193.2 ppg scored. The last two meetings between these teams here in Miami have remained on the low side of the number.

Under is 10-2 in Rockets last 12 overall.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games.Under is 35-15-2 in Rockets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Both the Memphis Grizzlies and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks have been highly inconsistent this season, with neither probably inspiring many bettors to back them. But in a game involving two bottom feeders, one side the ( Grizzlies) are the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis. When these teams played   on Dec. 15.  the Grizzlies defeated the Hawks  96-94 in Memphis , and once again look like a viable side to back in this spot.

ATLANTA is 1-13 ATS  L/14  in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread dating back to last season.

Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover

The Knicks enter this game frustrated and embarrassed after blowing what looked like a sure win last time out, as they gave up a 5 point lead with under 2 min lefts  and lost to Atlanta . Now completely dejected and with nothing to lose, I expect a all out effort from a side looking to get some pride back. Key Trend: Knicks are 5-0 ATS l/5 after a loss. QUOTE: "I can't even process that we lost," Knicks leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis told reporters after the game. "I can't believe it. It was our game. It was 100 percent our game. Stuff happened quick, and boom, it was over. ... We're just not there yet as a team. We keep losing these games." END QUOTE: I know the Knicks don't inspire many bettors, but considering their current mood, and  the fact they actually matchup well vs the Bucks  actually makes them  decent options in this spot. Note:  When these teams played last week the Bucks squeaked out a 92-90  vs the Knicks at home , but now with this game now in NYC could get easily get  hi jacked in MSG in the rematch tonight. (  The Knicks are outrebounding Bucks this season, 44.4 to 39.0, and the Bucks rank  19th in the NBA in points per game (104.7) and 11th in points allowed (104.9). The Knicks are right behind the Bucks in both categories ranking  20th in points per game (104.1) and 13th in points allowed at 105.5. Milwaukee has a SRS of - 0.28 vs NYK -1.69 .

Bucks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Underdog is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings and Bucks have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 visits to NY to play the Knicks.

Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo left last game, is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs New York ( Foot ) but is still operating at  less than 100% tonight.

NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS  L/20 after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS  L/48 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games .

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more are  55-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Two cellar dwellers go head to head tonight in the NBA. The Bulls  are  near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Kings are at the bottom  of the Western Conference. But according to my power rankings one side is the lesser of two evils and that is the Chicago Bulls, a hoops franchise that despite of rebuilding has played well for long stretch's this season and have gained my respect. I know their leading scorer(Mirotic)  was traded to the Pelicans, in exchange for forward Omer Asik and guard Jameer Nelson, but with key cog Markkanen back in the lineup after a week off (personal) they  will have fresh legs in the lineup and will be  dangerous underdogs.    With that said,  the Kings have not won on their own home floor since a 106-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 6 and are weak chalk here again tonight .

Chicago has won 4 of their L/5 visits to Sacramento and are 2-0 here in recent meetings.

SACRAMENTO is 4-14 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHICAGO is 14-5 ATS  L/19  versus struggling foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season.CHICAGO is 18-9 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors, and NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are a bankroll expanding 70-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a long term 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

The Jazz have won five in a row, including their last four road games, and they upset the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night 120-111 and are currently operating at a top level of performance. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have lost three of four games since star center DeMarcus Cousins suffered a season-ending left Achilles tear and are now struggling to find cohesiveness as they adjust to his absence. From a matchup perspective in both sides current for the Jazz have the edge.The Jazz have won four of the last five against New Orleans and get the nod again as road pups.

Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans.

UTAH is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. UTAH is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS  L/69 as a home favorite. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-24 favorite ATS  L/33 where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games in 2 straight games .  Snyder is 21-9 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home in his career.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, second half of the season are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

Utah is suddenly playing top tier hoops again as is evident by 5 straight wins. Their current top form must be attributed to their ability to play a very strong brand of defensive basketball that has resulted in allowing 4 of their L/5 opponents to score less than 99 points. This type of D, has been a mainstay of Jazz basketball for a while, and their now in a groove and closely following their regiment.  I know that the Pelicans have continued to play fairly high scoring games, despite of losing DeMarcus Cousns to an injury, but  their flow I'm betting will be inhibited tonight by a side that knows exactly how to slow opponents down, behind a 25th ranked pace and the 4th best D in the league.

Utah HC Snyder is 28-15 UNDER L/43   versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 194.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washington enters this game starting to shore up their defensive play and have held 3 of their L/6 opponents under the 98 point mark and overall  rank in the upper half of the NBA defensive numbers . Meanwhile, Indiana ha held 8 of their L/16 opponents to  99 points or less behind the 17th ranked pace. With that said, and considering my own power ranking matchup projections the lines-makers are slightly over weighted on the Total and thus I'm betting we have value with an under wager in this spot.

Indiana has gone under 17 of their L/28 home games this season. Washington has gone under in 17 of their 26 road games during this campaign. The combined average score of Wizards road games clicks in at a combined average of 210 ppg, while Indiana's home games have seen a combined average of 211.3 ppg. The two most recent games these teams have played here in Indiana have not eclipsed this total, and I'm once again betting on this Number not being breached.

WASHINGTON is 16-7 UNDER  L/23 after a game where they covered the spread this season with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. r

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER  L/34  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average 205.3 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 19-8 UNDER L/27 at home when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Portland has been playing some highly competitive hoops of late and have won 7 of their L/9 games and have only failed to cover 1 of their L/8 games overall. The Trail Blazers saw their four-game winning streak end abruptly last time out in a 130-105 loss at Toronto on Friday, but will now be ready to bounce back in a big way vs a Celtics side playing without injured Kyrie Irving. The Blazers have scored 100 points in 17 straight games, and matchup well here vs a side has suddenly become defensively deficient of late holding only 2 of their L/10 opponents to under 100 points.

The road team won both meetings last season and I expect another cover here by the visitors.


PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.BOSTON is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games.BOSTON is 18-34 ATS L/52 in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots.


Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

New Orleans after losing DeMarcus Cousins for the seasons with a Achilles injury are now  Short-handed going in to this tilt against the Wolves . The Pelicans  did manage to shore up their bench by acquiring Forward Nikola Mirotic from the Bulls and  is expected to make his debut for New Orleans tonight. But his presence I'm betting slows down the offensive flow of the Pelicans that they  had with Anthony and Cousins patrolling the hardwood. From my own projections which considers the new personnel  I'm estimating that the Pelicans will score in the 100 point range , and attempt between 81 and 87 shots, which has resulted in them combining with their opponents to average 206.8 ppg in the recent past. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches, have shown that they  have the flashes of having the  ability to play solid defense as well,  behind the 24th ranked pace in the league, which has resulted in them going under in 4 straight games, allowing two of their L/4 opponents to 97 and 87 points respectively. The combination of Minnesota's concerted focus on playing better  D, and the Pelicans getting acclimated to playing without key cogs and new pieces will culminate in tilt that stays under the total.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER  L/10  in road games versus  teams -  allowing an overall shooting pct defense of  46% or worse - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign, with the combined average score of 207.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER  in road games off an upset win as a road underdog  with a combined average of 199.6 ppg scored. ( The Pelicans upset Thunder 114-110 L/time out) MINNESOTA is 13-3 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/21 seasons, for a 87% conversion rate for bettors ( with a combined average of 210.6 ppg going on the board).

 Play UNDER

Denver enters this game having played three straight grueling games, with their last game resulting in a last second 127-124 buzzer beater win vs Oklahoma City. Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state, I'm betting they have problems dealing with a Golden State team that they may meet in the first round of the play offs. The Warriors also aware of the possible post season implications, will now take the  time I'm betting to deliver a message and knock down a fragile Nuggets group still dealing with confidence issues, after making a habit of squandering leads this season, including the win they took last time out. There is also a low possibility  , that the Warriors will not be prepared to play here tonight, as Denver has played them tough on occasion in the past including shocking them by 96-81 back on Dec 3 at home. With that said, I'm also betting the Warriors would love to shovel out some pay back here tonight and leave this building  and their fans in a shambles via  smack down performance.

 Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver.

Golden States SRS - is 8.21 vs Denver SRS - 0.50 .( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.)

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-2 ATS L/21 seasons for a 92% conversion rare  winning SU by an average of 11.1 pgg.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

When we think of  the Houston Rockets  we get the image of a run and gun offensive team that plays with one way reckless abandon. While their are times when they do look like this kind of side, overall this is not a true picture of what they have been trying to achieve or the way they play . Overall the Rockets are ranked 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and on the road of late have held 5 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points or less. Overall thanks to a decent defensive posture they have also seen 8 of their L/10 games remain on the low side of the number. On the road this season the Rockets have seen a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. Now we enter this game against a Cleveland team, playing for the most part aggressive offensive ball  while looking like pylons on defense. The Cavs did however, come out last time out, and show us some metal in a 91-89 win vs Miami, and now on a couple of days rest, should be well prepared to use that winning formula for this  top tier  non conference showdown in a game I have pegged at staying under the slightly bloated  public total.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 206.2 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER L/34  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CLEVELAND  in their L/42  versus   teams - allowing 106+ points/game have seen an average of 224.7 ppg scored.

Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 201.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Last night  Pacers came back from an 18-point first-half deficit to make the game tight, but ended up losing 133-126 to the Charlotte Hornets. What I took from that game, was how much of a flow the Pacers can get into when their running and gunning and how well they matchup vs a side the  76ers. With that said, I'm betting on the well conditioned PACERS continuing their flow vs a Philadelphia 76ers side  that has lost 4 of their L/5 road games SU  and also played last night .76ers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on no  rest.  Also add to that Indiana will have the added motivation, vs a Sixers side that took them out, by a 121-110 count back in November in Philly and you have a quality side situation to sink our teeth into.

76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Chalk is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings in this series.

INDIANA is 27-13 ATS  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Indiana has won 3 straight at home in this series.PHILADELPHIA is 5-17 ATS L/22 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5 TO's or more ) against a good ball handling team ( 14.5 TO's or less) are 9-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against conversion  rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Pacers to cover

The last time these teams met, the Lakers took out the Nets by a  124-112 win  as former  Net  Lopez scored a season-high 34 points on 13 of 23 from the field and made six 3-pointers. From a matchup perspective I feel the Lakers once again have a viable opportunity to turn the trick again. It must be noted that Brooklyn  could easily also be in a letdown scenario here , after back to back  grueling division games, including an upset of the 76ers ast time out . BROOKLYN has crashed and burned consistently in the past after these type of affairs  as is  evident by their 1-12 ATS L/13 record in home games after 2 consecutive division games .

Lakers are 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. are 69-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 23-3 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

The Pacers are coming off a 3-0 homestand that included a 105-96 victory over the Hornets on Monday night but despite of that momentum, this is a bad spot for them according to my reference power rankings and system vs system matchup projections. The home team also has the  added edge factored in for Coach Nate McMillan  not being behind the bench tonight for the Pacers because of  personal reasons.  The Hornets also have motivation on their side as they look to get revenge for a earlier loss to the Pacers this season. Actually in that loss the Hornets looked like the better team, when they pushed Dwight Howard to the front of their offensive attack and focused on him getting the ball. They floundered in the second half however, when they got away from that game plan and lost . But now tonight with the Pacers weaknesses exposed look for Howard once again be a focal and point and eventual catalyst in what I am betting will be  a Hornets win and cover .

Pacers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

 NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher 9-20 SU for go against 69% conversion rate for bettors over the last 5 seasons losing by an average of 4.4 ppg .

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 60-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.1 ppg.

Play on Charlotte to cover

The Thunder have possibly put it all together as they have been surging of late. I'm not completely sold on their sudden reversal in fortunes just  yet, despite of the prognosticators and media shoveling their love for them down our proverbial throats. Hey guys, I'm not dumping on the  Thunder, because the big three of Westbrook, Melo, and George are true big times talents, I'm just throwing caution to the wind as their a lot of basketball to played this season, before a definite stance can be taken and in my opinion the jury is still out.  In their last trip to the hardwood Oklahoma City had  a 8 game win streak abruptly ended against Washington despite of the Wizards playing without John Wall, and in the recent past have proven themselves unreliable and inconsistent despite of their talent levels. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance, and back the young but talented Denver Nuggets to grab us some cash in the Mile High city tonight. It must be also noted that Oklahoma City has crashed and burned consistently after being cash cows for their backers for extended periods, as this trend indicates: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-12 ATS   in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread . The Thunder have also not been able to take advantage of struggling defenses: OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-16 ATS  L/22 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is also just  2-10 ATS  vs. division opponents this season. Thunder are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) are 25-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Injury update: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (ankle) is probable Thursday vs Oklahoma City.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Philadelphia after a hot streak that saw them notch wins in 10 of 13 games,  have now lost back to back games including a  10-point loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday and a 12-point smack down at Milwaukee on Monday. I watched highlights from those game , and some shot clips, and the 76ers looked exhausted and are fade material here in their current form, even against a struggling side like Brooklyn, especially laying this much lumber on the road. Note: BROOKLYN is 13-4 ATS   versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season and 19-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BROOKLYN is 16-7 ATS  L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

I also betting on a motivated game from the Nets newest acquisition Okafor as he goes against his old teammates. His will to show his old team what he's truly worth  should spread and motivate the entire squad to a stronger than normal performance . Okafor a former No.3 pick with the Philadelphia 76ers was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last month, and has slowly been getting acclimated to his new teammates and is getting more minutes of late. This kid has talent, and despite of not working out in Philly is a steal in my opinion for the Nets.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 13-52 SU L/21 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Cavs,  for a team that is held in such high regard by NBA prognosticators, is a team that has not been fluent of late as their  5-8 record in January would indicate . This team needs some motivational therapy, as they are now a half game ahead of the  Heat for third place in the East. To make matters worse the team will have to play without all star Kevin Love who broke his  hand  in his last trip to the hardwood. However, the silver lining is that the Bulls will now be playing small ball for longer stretches , and when they go big with Jae Crowder ( 6-6) and bring Channing Frye off the bench they wont be easily intimidated by guys like Hassan Whiteside, and maybe more motivated in Love's absence ,which I'm betting actually helps them in the long run.  I recently began to believe going small for Cleveland would get them over this ugly slump their in, and now their going to be forced to do it. In their only meeting this season the Cavs beat the Heat 108-97 and lead by as much as 34 points , and now even with out a key cog in their lineup matchup well vs the Heat.

CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS L/8  in home games after 2 consecutive division games  .MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 10-29 L/5 seasons for  ago against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Houston at home this season, has played down to lower tier opponents like Orlando and have used these type of games , as resting points and live in game scrimmages. Resting key players for longer junctures of the game, and conserving their overall energy levels for foes they deem more important in  stature. This is an intelligent game plan, in a long in grueling season, but it provides an opening for a cover on a DD line. Note: HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS   as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and long term are is 17-37 ATS  L/54 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points.  I know Orlando does not inspire bettors , but they have been competitive of late, and have covered 6 of their L/7 overall

Houston is also just 5-18 ATS  L/23   in home games in non-conference games. Orlando is also 8-2 ATS on the road as non conference DD dogs.

NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Washington Wizards  tried to run and gun with the red hot  Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last week and lost by a 121-111 count. Now in the rematch, I'm betting the Wizards slow things down a little bit, as they play without star guard John Wall in the lineup. This combination of expected strategy and key cog missing  will see their flow curtailed, which will also effect their   offensive output here , which in turn will effect the total combined score falling on the low side of the number.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER  L/8 in road games on Tuesday nights. ( This could just be an anomaly but still worth noting) OKLAHOMA CITY is also  19-5 UNDER   after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-2 UNDER  L/14  after 5 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.

Under is 25-12 in Thunder last 37 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5/ 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Dallas Mavs enter this game desperate for a win after being losers of three in a row and six of the last seven, and are off a heart breaking 2 point loss to the Denver Nuggets last time out. The Heat are a fine team but with this being their 4th game in 7 nights will be on tired legs, and susceptible to down performance after playing 5 straight closely contested and grueling games. Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season, but DALLAS is 32-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent and are viable home dogs in this spot.

DALLAS is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.DALLAS is 20-11 ATS L/31 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DALLAS is 33-18 ATS L/51 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 36-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Minnesota is 12 games above .500 and 20-6 at home but the  Timberwolves have lost six of their last seven tilts on the road  and are weak favorites here as they look ahead to going against  the Toronto Raptors on their schedule for  tomorrow night . Meanwhile, Atlanta despite a lackluster record, in a rebuilding year, have been competitive for most of this season, despite of some recent lopsided setbacks. Minnesota is 8-11 against the East and Atlanta is 8-11 against the West and from a system to system and player to player standpoint  the Hawks matchup fairly decently vs the Wolves especially on their own home court.

MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS  L/50 versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game .ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS  L/12 after 2 consecutive division games.ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season and is 13-5 ATS  L/18 in non-conference games this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, after allowing 105 points or more in a loss to a division rival are 29-12 SU L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The visiting Charlotte Hornets enter this game with a 4-9-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-3-1 ATS in their L/5 strips to the hardwood. The Hornets are also just 3-9 away in  a 1 and 1 situation vs conference opposition. Meanwhile, their hosts the Pacers unlike some people, seem to like playing on Mondays as their 11-1 ATS mark  in their L/12 first games of the week would indicate . The Pacers from a betting perspective have also faired well against  NBA Southeast opposition cashing 8 of their L/10 meetings with the series host cashing 5 straight meetings and once again look like viable wagers.

CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Indiana is 19-8 ATS  L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48%or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 43-3 SU l/21 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 8.4 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Rockets have no problem scoring points in bunches behind an explosive offense that averages 116.8 ppg at home this season, but its their defensive performances that are most troubling, as is evident by allowing 108.8 ppg as hosts. Needless to say, the Rockets are a one way offensive juggernaut and nothing will change today vs the visiting Phoenix Suns. The Suns are allowing more than 112 ppg this season, while the offense, has averaged 106.8 ppg on the road  ranking last in the NBA overall and also own the 4th fastest pace . This according to my own projections results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this fairly high but beatable Total.

My own estimates suggest that the Rockets will meet their season average offensive output of around 117 points today, which is a good omen for a over wager cashing as the  Rockets 46-13 OVER   when they score 117 or more points in a game with the combined average score clicking in at 236 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER  L/10 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points wit a combined average score of 236.4 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 11-1 OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points with a combined average of 145.3 ppg going on the board.

PHOENIX is 14-3 OVER  L/17 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game of 130.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 34-8  OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Minnesota Wolves enter this game on a 2 game losing streak, and looked very lackluster on defense in the process, allowing 126 points to Golden State and 123 to Portland.  They looked tired for long stretches of those games, which is not a good omen headed into this game vs a well conditioned Brooklyn team that is tenacious and competitive.  In the  Nets last trip to the hardwood a 116-91 loss to the Bucks,  they had a rare ugly outing but that has been the exception in recent outings, as 11 of their last 14 games have been decided by six points or less,  and they have covered 12 of their L/15 overall. When these teams met on Jan 3 the Nets squeaked out a 98-97 win at home and actually matchup pretty well against the Wolves and get my support here getting points.

BROOKLYN is 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BROOKLYN is 16-4 ATS  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.MINNESOTA is 37-61 ATS  L/98 after allowing 120 points or more .MINNESOTA is 17-30 ATS  L/47 in non-conference games dating back to last season.

NBA Road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

The Celtics in a grueling physical game took out the Golden State Warriors  92-88 in a  home win in November. With that template having proven successful last time out, I'm betting on the Celtics preparing to play a similar type conservative affair. Boston's guards limited Golden State's  super star backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a total of 22 points on 8-for-32 shooting in that game. I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight in a much lower scoring game than the pundits might expect.

BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 220 and is 9-1 UNDER   when the total is 220 to 229.5.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 25-4  UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

This game between the visiting NY Knicks and their hosts the Phoenix Suns has the makings of a run and gun all out offensive affair. 

The Suns behind the 4th ranked pace in the NBA  are lead by explosive offensive  guard Devin Booker who is averaging 24.8 points a game but  also own  a lackluster D allowing  112.2 ppg the worst mark in the league. With this their first game home after an extended road trip, I'm betting they will be ready to take off here in their own digs. Note: Over is 19-7-1 in Suns last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Meanwhile, the Knicks  are allowing 110.3 ppg on the road this season, and are consistently taking part in back and forth wide open tilts as is evident by going over the Total in 9 straight and 11 of their L/12 games overall with the average combined score clicking in at 223.5 ppg . The Knicks are also on tired legs as they played last night, and won't have the energy to play physically in what should be a loosely played game. Over is 18-5 in Knicks last 23 games playing on  no  rest.

NEW YORK is 10-1 OVER  L/11 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season with a combined average score of 224 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 7-0 OVER   versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 228.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 23-11 OVER  L/34  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The LA Lakers enter this road tilt vs the Bulls  playing decently of late, winning 7 of their L/9 and have been especially good  at home, where they have won 6 straight games. However, you have to remember that this young Lakers team previous to their current top tier play, lost 9 straight , and have lost 15 of 21 road games and I currently feel still don't deserve a great deal of respect at this juncture of their campaign. Meanwhile, Chicago, in what has been tabbed as a rebuilding year, have surprisingly been tough to play against as is evident by covering 6 of their L/7 overall and 20 of their L/26 , and  13 of their 21 home tilts. After a bad outing against the 76ers last time out, I'm betting the Bulls will be primed to bounce back with a big effort here. Add to that the Bulls are also in revenge mode for a 103-94 loss at Staples back on Nov 21 and we have a fired up group to back in this spot play.

Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lakers are 2-6 L/8 in Chicago.

Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog are 30-1 SU 21 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg, which qualifies this as solid ATS choice.

Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 10-52 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of more than 8 ppg.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

 The Kings enter this game with a little momentum after they  snapped an eight-game losing streak Tuesday, by taking out  the Orlando Magic 105-99 in the visitors role. Meanwhile, the Heat are of an emotional close lose by a  99-90 count at the Houston Rockets on Monday. That game was very competitive  to the very end and a grueling conclusion to  a 5 game road trip , and will now have a Heat side that has not been home in 10 days, and still getting acclimated to their own digs again in a letdown spot. This makes the Heat vulnerable in my opinion, especially on a slightly bloated line. Hey folks, I know the Kings may not inspire bettors, but they are playing better overall ball as this season has progressed and found a spark plug Garrett Temple who had a career best 34 points last time out. His energy and professionalism/work ethic  are spreading through the Kings locker room and translating itself into a nice energy flow for his team. QUOTE: "Garrett has been a fantastic leader for us, and I couldn't be happier for him," Kings coach Dave Joerger told the media. "He is the ultimate professional. For him to have this type of night, I'm just tickled." END QUOTE.

The Heat are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by 5.4 ppg off a loss as a dog in which they led by double-digits.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 43-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pistons enter this game on a 5 game losing streak, and are now desperate to get back in the win column here at home in Motown this Wednesday night. Meanwhile, visiting Utah also continues to exhibit inconsistencies this season, and have lost 13 of their L/17 overall. Despite of both teams futility , one side stands out as being slightly superior from a matchup perspective and that is the home team according to my own player to player and system vs system matchup stats/data. In a contest of two struggling teams the lesser of two evils is the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons SRS is 0.36 ranking them 14th in the league while the Jazz SRS -0.43 ranking them 17th in the league. ( SRS
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

DETROIT is 11-3 ATS  in non-conference games this season.DETROIT is 15-5 ATS L/20 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened last time out to Brooklyn 101-100.DETROIT is 12-2 ATS L/14 in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Northwest.

 UTAH is 27-42 ATS  as a road underdog over the last few seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 2-25 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of loss coming by 10.1 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

The Pelicans enter this game having seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte has seen a combined average  score of 211.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. These averages and a head to head matchup systems analysis has me projecting a total closer to 218.5 to 220, which gives us value on making a UNDER wager in this spot. The discrepancy between my numbers in the offered total is partially based on series history which has seen both sides take part in a high scoring affairs. But the lines-makers have stretched this number to its outer limits and there is value on the under considering my projections.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 UNDER L/29  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record with the combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 23-12 UNDER  L/35 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game with t a combined average of 210 ppg scored.

HC Clifford of Charlotte is Clifford is 21-9 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less ( beat Sacramento 112-107 last time out) the combined average score of 195.1 ppg.

Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 6-2 in Pelicans last 8 road games.Under is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 vs. Western Conference.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 37-84 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The combined average score of those games was 218.7 ppg)

Play UNDER

Cleveland and San Antonio are two teams that have been  under performing of late. But one team looks like they care and are working hard to get back on track, while the other( Cleveland ) despite of saying what's politically correct to the media , looks like their just going thorough the motions. The Cavs leader, LeBron James responses to media of late about his team performances (3-9 SU L/12) , have been  positive in nature, and despite of him saying he's playing as hard as ever,  its not translating onto the court, which  is a worrisome situation.  The Cavs biggest issue is one that makes you wonder if their a championship calibre team,  as  they have allowed 119.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and overall on the season rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, San Antonio are coming off a only their 4th loss at home this season last time out to Indiana, but are more than capable of bouncing back behind a defense, that is ranked No.1 in the league in points allowed and 2nd in defensive efficiency. With that said, the difference maker tonight I'm betting will come via the superior defense and coach ( Popovich).

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 4-15 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season .CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 1-9 ATS  off a home loss by 10 points which happened against  Oklahoma City 148-124.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS  in home games after playing a home game this season. SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened against Indiana last time out.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 63-28 L/ 21 seasons for 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-2 SU L/5 seasons, winning SU by 10.6 ppg for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Timberwolves were riding a  five-game win streak in early January, but have suddenly begun to struggle losing to Orlando and Houston in back to back affairs, before coming up with a big victory vs the Raptors on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Clippers, ended a  six-game winning run  on the weekend with a loss to the Jazz. The Clippers have also  won four consecutive home games and 12 of their past 16 contests overall  and  from a matchup standpoint here on their own home floor deserve to be favorites and are my choice tonight as short chalk. Note: LA also has revenge on board for a loss here to the Wolves back in December, and will primed for payback.

Note: Wolves Jimmy butler is less than 100% for this tilt with a knee injury and may miss this tilt.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 31-69 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 9-52 SU L/ 5 seasons and a perfect 0-7 SU this season for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Play on the Clippers to cover

The Denver Nuggets were focused this season in the first meeting,  between these teams  in Portland on Dec 22. walking away with a solid 102-85 win in a game where they looked like they matched up well vs their opponents. After ugly losses to Atlanta and Phoenix at home lately, HC Malone is on the hot seat, and needs a win here to keep the proverbial wolves at bay. I'm betting he will pull out all the stops here to get his reeling team back in gear here in what is important game for the Nuggets in a few different ways.

Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 117-43 SU winning by an  average of 6.8 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover

The explosive Rockets take on the feisty Miami Heat on Monday night at Toyota Center  after exerting a lot of energy in back to back wins vs  the  Minnesota Timberwolves and Warriors at home . Now in an emotional let down spot I expect the Rockets may find themselves in a bit of a letdown spot vs a physical side  and susceptible to being upset but more importantly failing in their quest to cover.

HOUSTON is 5-17 ATS  L/22  in home games in non-conference games and is 6-17 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog, which happened vs the Warriors last time out.

MIAMI is 13-4 ATS  L/17 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points .

MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.MIAMI is 31-13 ATS  versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 35-74 ATS L/5 seasons for go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover

 Utah won its last game but not has not won two games in a row  in over a month. I'm betting things wont change this  Monday night when they visits the Atlanta Hawks. It must be noted that on  the season the Jazz are just 8-15 SU on the road, for the leagues worst away record. Meanwhile, Atlanta after a horrendous start to their campaign, has won seven  of their L/ 16 games and more importantly have covered 11 of their L/17 overall and have become highly competitive. The Hawks got shellacked last time out, but this rebuilding franchise has been resilient of late, and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. In their current forms the wrong team is favored here. Take the points.

Jazz are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 60-19 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Spurs are desperate to get back on track after struggling of late, and will have their opportunity here at home vs a exhausted Indiana Pacers team that has lost two straight while mustering 86 points in both tilts and  on the tail end of a 5 game  Western Conference road trip. Add to that the Spurs have revenge on board for a 97-94 loss at Indiana as 6.5 point favorites earlier this season and you have a motivated side to back . With that said, the odds according to my own power rankings  are weighted sufficiently enough in the Spurs favor  to get payback here at the AT& T Center tonight where they have won 14 straight games.  Recent  top tier non conference performances at home by the Spurs this season also indicate ( 15-3 ATS) that we are backing a solid favorite here.SAN ANTONIO is also  13-4 ATS  overall as a home favorite this season winning SU by an average of 11.6 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 ATS   in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season - Spurs 107.3 opposition 97.5 .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 71-7 SU  L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.8 ppg. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Indiana is on tired legs, as they are on the tail end of a 5 game western conference road trip. Their ability to play physical defense,  I'm betting will be hampered by fatigue. Meanwhile, the Spurs anxious to get back on a winning run and inflict payback for a previous loss to the Pacers earlier this season, will see the Spurs playing aggressively, and pushing the tempo of the game. This will force the Pacers to chase, and reciprocate with some offense of their own in game that I have pegged to over the set total. Note: INDIANA is 9-1 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) with a combined average of 224.8 ppg scored.

Pacers offense averages 106.5 ppg this season and on the road have also averaged  105.9 ppg on average , while the defense has allowed 105.7 ppg overall and 106.5 ppg. San Antonio has scored 107 ppg at home this season, and overall have seen a combined average of 204.6 ppg.

SAN ANTONIO is 18-7 OVER  L/25 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 208.7 ppg scored. NDIANA is 22-11 OVER  L/33 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a combined average of 216.7 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less are 23-4 OVER L/21 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play OVER

The Celtics won the first two games of the season series with Orlando and have won six straight against the Magic.   Boston has also won 14 straight and 17 of the last 18 against the Magic at TD Garden and part of the reason this line is slightly bloated and offering value for advantage . Boston's a hard working team, that has played valiantly this season, despite of a opening game injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, but in their current form makes them less than viable DD favs, as has been evident in 3 of their L/5 when they failed to eclipse the 91 point plateau. it must also be noted that  Orlando has been highly competitive of late , covering 4 straight and 5 of their L/6 and its also interesting to note that  Celtics HC Stevens is 1-10 ATS L/11 versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in his career with the Celtics.

BOSTON is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).

NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are just 4-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 87% for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

Golden State the reigning NBA champs come into Houston ready to inflict some punishment on a team, that is a direct threat to their elite status. The last time these teams played here in Houston the Warriors took a 124-114 win . The Rockets tried to unsuccessfully run and gun with the champs, and nothing should change in the rematch including the margin of victory for the visitors.HOUSTON is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and  is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game .

HOUSTON is 4-17 ATS  L/21 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last couple of seasons and is 1-9 ATS  L/10 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

Golden State is 6-1 SU/ATS L/7 visits here.

Play on Golden State to cover

Cleveland has struggled mightily, of late, and barely took a 104-103 win vs lowly  Orlando last time out, as there looks to be very little motivation , from even key players like LeBron James. But now with this game on national tv (ABC) James will want to make a big showing. He's a great player , but his ego , and ability to speak about himself in the third person, has me wondering where one of the greatest players the game has ever seen mindset is. Wherever his thoughts are one thing for sure is that he wants his legacy to be remembered, and on this big stage, I'm betting he will shine and lead his team to victory in this spot vs a Oklahoma  City side , that they matchup well against  . By the way folks, I'm not down on Cleveland , with so much time left to play in the season. I'm a true believer in this group, as they have the talent to turn things around, and today could be a catalyst to them starting to play the way I think they can. Note: Cleveland D, has struggled of late, but the Thunder has shown a lack of an ability to deal with these types of pourous defenses, as is evident by a 4-16 ATS  record  versus struggling defensive teams -  allowing shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS  L/22 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS  L/16  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season .

NBA team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 7 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 70-31 SU l/101 opportunities winning by an average of 6.5 ppg.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team winning SU by an average of 10.4 ppg.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The Suns offense remains in issue as they have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 3 of their L/5 and now the  defense is being scrutinized after allowing Portland to shoot over 50% from the field in game they  played Tuesday night. Some of the players blamed it on fatigue, but you can bet, HC Triano a master tactician won't take this sitting down, and will try diligently  to make sure his young team works harder on their transitional play and overall defense tonight vs a sometimes explosive Nuggets team. Something that might aid the Suns, in their attempt to slow down the Nuggets offense is the rash of nagging injuries the Nuggets are currently experiencing and the heavy schedule that will now have them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Thanks to a array of issues  it must be noted that Denver has failed to score 99 or more points in 5 of their L/8 overall.The Nuggets  have gone under in 5 straight games and in 7 of their L/8 overall, and despite of some historical high scoring past meetings, I'm betting history is unlikely to repeat itself here under the current circumstances.

DENVER is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 205.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half  are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors with the average combined score of these games clicking in a 209 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 71-38 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Pistons enter this game in a slump after having lost 3 straight games, and consistently struggle since point guard Reggie Jackson went down with injury.  Meanwhile, Washington despite of also being inconsistent actually matchup well against the Pistons according to my cross reference power rankings systems and get  the nod here on the road tonight in Motown.

DETROIT is 12-28 ATS  L/40 when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season.

WASHINGTON is 7-2 straight /ats against DETROIT over the last few seasons ; Washington won the first two meetings this season -- both came at  home , by an  average 11 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%). are 9-35 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

Detroit enters this game ranked 25th in offense and 21st in pace, and own the 4th ranked D,  and I'm expecting those numbers to remain on average here tonight against the Wizards. Meanwhile, Washington ranks 13th in pace and 11 in defensive rating, and 11th in offensive rating. My numbers make the Total closer to 203-204 thus giving us value with the under here.

DETROIT is 8-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 193.5 ppg going on the board.DETROIT is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 199.3 ppg scored.DETROIT is 11-2 UNDER  L/13 as a home underdog of 6 points or less dating back to last season with a combined average of with a combined average of 194.5 ppg clicking in.DETROIT is 15-6 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 70-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Miami is a big strong physical team that matches up very well against Brooklyn. The Heat's defensive play is above average and tenacious in nature and are allowing  and average of just 98.4 points in their last 20 games.Miami's defensive rating during this time span  is 103.7 points per 100 possessions while allowing  opposition offenses  to convert just  44.9 percent from the floor and 35.5 percent from downtown.  Meanwhile, Brooklyn is a team that usually  struggles against teams like the Nets, with big men, on their roster  ie ( Hassan Whiteside) and according to my own cross reference rankings matchup poorly in both teams current forms. The nets have lost 3 straight and   6 of their L/7 overall, and have lost 6 of their L/8 at home, and now have to face a side that is in top form and out to revenge a ugly 111-87 loss the Nets at home back on Dec 29. With that said, I'm betting on the Heat coming out here motivated and ready to inflict some payback, in a place where they have had good success off late winning and covering their L/4 trips to Brooklyn.

MIAMI is 30-12 ATS  versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Play on Miami to cover

Indiana has been streaky this season, and right now they are  on a winning streak, of 3 games  and have won 5 of their l/6 SU and have looked good in back to back road games. Now with momentum on their sides I'm expecting another top tier effort vs a very inconsistent Portland side. The Pacers also have the added incentive of revenge on board for a 114-96 loss at home earlier this season to the Blazers. So now on a couple of days rest and motivated to get some pay back I'm recommending we take the points with them here tonight.

INDIANA is 13-3 ATS  L/16  in road games when playing with 2 days rest .PORTLAND is 3-11 ATS   as a home favorite this season.

Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Trail Blazers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central.Trail Blazers are 6-15-3 ATS in their last 24 home games.

NBA Home favorites (PORTLAND) - after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are  51-18 ATS L/21 seasons and a perfect 6-0 ATS this season !

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

When these teams played back in late November of this season, the Warriors took a 143-94 win vs their hosts tonight the Chicago Bulls. I'm sure that bad defensive performance still is a sore point for Hoiberg and company, and this time around I'm betting the Bulls despite of some decent offensive production of late won't allow themselves to get caught up in shoot out that they probably can't win. This I'm betting cuts into the lines-makers Totals projections. Add to that the Warriors are off a big win vs Cleveland last time out, and now in a an emotional letdown situation, their energy levels should be diminished , and their offensive output curtailed, which could lead to a much lower scoring game than expected.

HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER L/30 in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season with the combined average score registering in at 214.6 ppg. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent with a combined average score of 201.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Central.Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Chicago.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 UNDER L/17 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 214.7 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the average combined score clicking in at 207.9 ppg.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 229.5 to 230 with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 27-10 UNDER L/37 in home games in non-conference games with a combined average of 198.9 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 33-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER

The Pelicans, are on tired legs  after, defeating the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics 116-113 in overtime at Boston on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Atlanta is playing much better of late,  and are coming off a 102-99 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The Hawks have shown some fight in recent games and must not be disrespected here as they are  4-3 against Western Conference teams at home this season. In 31 of their 43 games, the Hawks have been within at least one possession at some point in the fourth quarter and deserve our attention as dogs in this spot play.

ATLANTA is 27-14 ATS  L/41 versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-23 ATS  L/31 after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots.

Pelicans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Southeast.Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference.Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-27 SU L/5 seasons losing  by an average of 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover