On Nov 11 the Spurs put 133 points on the board in a  fast paced win vs the Chicago Bulls ( ranked 23 in ppg allowed 113) . In the return matchup Im betting on the Spurs using a high energized attack to try to duplicate the last games successful results, which in turn will make for a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. I know the Bulls are having problems scoring, but Im betting their going to be forced into chasing a team that matches up well again them  or be blown of the court and for this Total to be eclipsed. Note: San Antonio owns the 21st ranked Defensive efficiency in the league and not longer is a stalwart defensive team. ( Defensive Rating is for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 OVER  after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 218.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored with no score going below the 213 point plateau.

Play OVER 

The Rockets after winning 5 straight games have suffered back to back losses in the first 2 games of their current 3 game road trip. The finale of those 3 away games comes tonight vs a very inconsistent Washington Wizards team, and gives the Rockets a solid chance at getting back into the win column and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover . 

Houston owns a - 0.17 ranking 16th in the league while Washington has recorded a -4.07 SRS which ranks 25th in the NBA. Thus opening line of -3.5 according to my numbers is more accurate , which gives us value laying 2.5 points here. SRS : Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

HC D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of HOUSTON.

NBA team (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 237-167 ATS L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

The Knicks have been offensively better of late, but their underlying offensive problems, are Im betting still going to be an issue , especially today vs a physical and methodical Grizzlies team that works hard on grinding teams down and disturbing their flow.   The Knicks are averaging 108.9 ppg ranking 29th in the league, and a slower pace that ranks 20th overall.  Meanwhile, the the Grizzlies rank 30th in pace and 1st and Defence, and 30th in offence. The above combinations Im betting will result in lower scoring tilt that does not eclipse this total. Note:New York  has not scored  more than 100 points in any of its previous seven trips to Memphis and Im betting on a repeat performance here in this spot.MEMPHIS is 25-12 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.3 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 196.6 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 193.6 ppg scored, with NYK averaging just 96.6 ppg in offense. 

Play UNDER 

The Knicks are just 6-14 start  but have come to life   in their last two games, which featured a surprising win at Boston and close home winner over New Orleans. But now Im betting on the Knicks current gravy train to crash abruptly in the unfriendly confines of Memphis where they will face a grinding opponent that can make life difficult for a  rebuilding young team like the Knicks.  It must be noted that the NYK has lost their L/7 games here and and have not scored more than 100 points in any of those games and Im betting that status quo of that trend continue today . It must be noted that Memphis 6-0 ATS L/6 at home as a favourite and play their best ball right here at home. 

NEW YORK is 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with the average deficit clicking in at more than 12 ppg. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Orlando Magic (9-10) beat the visiting Lakers 130-117 on Nov. 17 to end their season-long four-game winning streak which is the Lakers only loss in their L/8 games. Now with revenge on board I expect the Lakers to come out here with all guns blazing in . a pay back event vs a Orlando team that has fallen back down to earth after a 3 game win streak and  have lost their L/2 games by DDs deficits. Note: The past three opponents the Lakers have faced  are averaging 95. 

LA LAKERS are 13-3 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 5-31 L/5 seasons with the average combined score deficit clicking in at 14.7 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 90 points or less are 63-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Minnesota is playing better without the traded Jimmy Butler but their offence does not have the explosiveness it did with him in the lineup. It must be noted that MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER in November games this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.   Meanwhile, Chicago is struggling offensively ,and as a result has gone under in 9 of their L/12 and have been held under 99 points in 7 of their L/9 games. the Bulls played last night scored 96 point sin a loss, and are on tired legs here and could easily find themselves muted offensively again. Everything points to this being another game where both teams keep a even pace and for the total combined score to stay on the low side of the number. 

The Timberwolves have gone under in 5 straight as a favorite with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Saturday games. Under is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 51-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

The Washington Wizards in their current form may not inspire bettors but the tonight in desperation mode Im betting they get it together  on home court vs a New Orleans team that struggles on the road (2-8 SU), and could be playing with Anthony Davis tonight because of a hip injury. If Davis does play he will be less than 100% making the Pelicans fade material. Their are alot of ebbs and flows in the NBA , and Washington is showing some proverbial high tide action entering this game after a come from behind win vs the LA Clippers last time out. 

NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season which happened against the lowly Knicks last time out. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - good pressure defensive team - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 47-15 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

Miami enters this game in Chicago with the league's third-worst shooting percentage at 43.5, only ahead of Boston and Detroit.  the Miami Heat are really struggling and should not be favorites in their current form on the road against any NBA team , not even the rebuilding Chicago Bulls.The most recent instance of Miami's horrendous play occurred Tuesday in a 104-92 loss to the Brooklyn Nets that pushed its home losing streak to five games. The Heat shot 36 percent and missed 15 of 19 shots in the fourth quarter when the Nets outscored them by a 30-15 margin. Thats just plain ugly, and the return of veteran senior citizen Dwayne Wade Im betting wont be enough to buoy this team to victory and more importantly a cover. The Bulls are off a win last time outs nd will build on that momentum here at home vs the Heat. 

MIAMI is 13-28 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

The Washington Post reported about on-court confrontations between John Wall and Jeff Green, and between Bradley Beal and Austin Rivers at a practice last week and that after those incidents Wall swore at Brooks and Beal sounded off to general manager Ernie Grunfeld. This report quantifies what is obvious and that is that this  Wizards team is in disarray, and playing wide open undisciplined basketball. Tonight I expect Torontos vaunted offence ranked 5th in the league behind the 10th fastest pace  to pound the stumbling  Wizards 29th ranked defence mercilessly while Washington behind 10th ranked offence and 7th fastest pace  will  have no choice but to chase and respond in run and gun fashion or be blown off the court. This Im betting results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this number.

TORONTO is 8-0 OVER  in home games after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 26-5 OVER L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Ive got a stubborn streak when it comes to sticking to my long term handicapping methods, and with that said, Im going to back Houston team that I have pegged as the superior team in this matchup with Detroit. Last time out I recommended we lay the heavy lumber with the Rockets at home in the first of back to back meetings with these teams, and I failed on my assessments that night, as the Pistons played the Rockets tough in Texas and covered as 9 point underdogs losing by just 2 points 126-124 .  My power rankings however, suggest that the Rockets are a viable bet here at -4 chalk, and Im laying down my cash on them again. I live and die by my methods, and lose or win today will continue down the same path, even though some turbulence may effect the smoothness of my trip. You have too remember that the young men form Motown were trailing by 10 points going into the 4th quarter of the last game, and than amazingly scored 41 points to to put pressure of the Rockets. Im betting that unbelievable shooting performance wont be on todays agenda and that Houston gets the win and cover as they play a complete game. 

HOUSTON is 22-9 ATS  off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and is 21-8 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 season.

HOUSTON is 32-18 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasonsHOUSTON is 13-3 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home underdogs (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 9-37 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Houston Rockets 

Golden State suffering the loss of super star Steph Curry to injury are looking to snap their 3 game losing streak after losing to the San Antonio Spurs, 104 - 92 last time out and will come out here primed to compete and rebound vs Oklahoma City tonight on their own home court. The Thunder are also off a loss, and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.With reports out of Oakland supporting the return of Draymond Green, and the impending battle of former team mates Durant and Westbrook I like the Golden State Warriors to grab a victory here vs a Thunder team exhibiting some key  areas of weakness as they struggle with  three point percentage ( Ranked 30th), free throw percentage ( Ranking 27th) and assists per game (Ranked 26th).Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.Thunder are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.Thunder are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Golden State. 

 GOLDEN STATE is 42-23 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 40-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Memphis is a very pesky team that plays a strong physical brand of basketball and are  leading the NBA in scoring defense (100 ppg) and turnover differential (-4.6) while ranking second in steals (9.8),   Their quickly becoming the type of team, that other sides around the league don't look forward to facing. The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, and could induce a  night mare for a Spurs team that is struggling defensively as was evident last time out when they allowed  the Pelicans to shoot 57.8 percent from the floor in a 140-126 loss. Add to that the Grizzlies star Conely after being injured last year, is rounding back into super star gear, and hitting 38.7 percent from 3-point range this month . This team feeds off Conely's energy and  with Grizzlies C Marc Gasol suddenly back in top form hitting on  three straight double-doubles while averaging 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds this month the Grizzlies are a dangerous underdog here tonight.

Spurs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest.Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 46-16 SU L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

After a fast start to their season, Denver has now lost 6 of their L/7 games, and things don't look to get much better here as they are on tired legs as the Nuggets  prepare to play their 4th game in a week and third straight road tilt. Meanwhile, Minnesota had a three game win streak ended last time out by a pesky Memphis team. but the Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games where they play their best hoops.Wolves have a 7-2  SU home record this season, while the Nuggets are 3-4 SU on the road. In their four most recent meetings last season the Timberwolves beat the  Nuggets 3 out of 4 times winning both games at home by an average of 4.5 points and another similar outcome is a high probability outcome considering the current form of both sides and matchup discrepancies favoring the Wolves especially from the land of the downtown trey where the Wolves excel (37.3%). 

Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

MINNESOTA is 39-21 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 3 seasons.MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 57-15 79% L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind .

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 

Houston has suddenly come to life and are on a 4 game win streak  averaging 115.8 points per contest during its current run and on defence have held 6 of their L/8 opponents to 99 points or less.The Rockets now operating in optimal mode host a Detroit team that despite of winning 4 of their L/5 are just 3-4 on the road this season , and not equipped to match firepower with a Rockets team that  are second in both downtown 3s made(14.3) and attempted (42.5) per game.  

 DETROIT is 3-13 ATS  in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 11.9 ppg.  

NBAHome favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 64-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover

Tonight we have a tilt at Madison Square Garden, that has mismatch written all over it and the lines-makers have followed suit by making the Portland Trail Blazers 8 point road chalk,   vs their hosts the  New York Knicks this Tuesday. However from a contrarian perspective, Im betting taking points with the home dog is prudent bankroll expanding choice vs a Portland team on tired legs as they play their 4th road game in less than a week. I know its not easy backing a rebuilding /struggling team like the Knicks that continue to give younger players minutes, but from a advantage players viewpoint, this line is slightly bloated and offers value according to my power rankings numbers.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Brooklyn  a team the this lost 4 of their L/5 overall is not the same team without injured  G Caris LeVert in the lineup . He leads the Nets in scoring (18.4 points per game) but its expected out for net fe months. Now they will go against a very hungry and rested Miami team , desperate to get a win, after getting hammered by the LA Lakers on Sunday night  ( 113-97) for their fourth straight home loss. The media is attacking the team for their lack of grit, and believe me say pros do not like to be embarrassed and will be hell bent on getting some redemption tonight. 

MIAMI is 29-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, on Tuesday nights 110-23 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average margin point differential going by 8+ ppg. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

Orlando enters this game with a hot hand from the field converting at more than 50% with their FGs in their L/3 games, but in the past this has been a signal for downturn in offensive efficiency and production as is evident by the following trend: ORLANDO is 13-3 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots with a combined average of 193 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Toronto enters this game off a fine defensive performance last time out, allowing the Bulls just 83 points, as they paid alot of attention to their stopping abilities  in transition .  That stronger defensive performance stemmed from criticism they received after suffering a previous loss to the Celtics, that saw some in the media call them soft defensively  and portray them as reverting back to their old ways under former HC Casey. The truth is the Raptors are a solid defensive team  ranking 6th in the league in efficiency, and With that said, Im expecting more of the same stopping action from the Raptors in the spot vs a Magic team ranked 21st in offense in the league behind a 21 st ranked pace..  

TORONTO is 17-4 UNDER  in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.1 ppg going on the board. ORLANDO is 24-12 UNDER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg getting scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (TORONTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Hawks are struggling  (3-13)  as they enter this game on a  seven-game losing streak on Monday when they start a four-game home stand against the Los Angeles Clippers (10-5) at State Farm Arena. . Thanks to their ineptness and inability to garner wins  of late, we are getting an exaggerated line to bet into with the home dog Hawks. I know the Clippers are playing well and we have a matchup of  teams playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but desperation and being back on their own home court  after a 4 game road trip against strong teams ( Indiana, Golden State, Denver, Lakers) makes the Hawks battle tested and  a viable wagering option as they play in desperation mode.

LA CLIPPERS are 18-34 ATS L/52  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 48-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

According to my power rankings and head to head matchup systems and player vs players analysis, the Celtics matchup very well vs the Charlotte Hornets.

CHARLOTTE is 3-13 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Boston is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 vs Charlotte. 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less ), in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 60-106 ATS  for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors over the L/21 season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

I know the Warriors played last night and are on tired legs as they embark on their 5th game in 7 days and I also know that Golden State on a current 2 game slide after last nights loss to Dallas  will be without Steph Curry and Draymond Green tonight in this tilt vs San Antonio. However, despite of that my matchup rankings data base suggest even with the injuries, the well conditioned and deep Warriors are capable of pulling off a win here as a road  underdog vs a San Antonio side that has lost their L/3 trips to the hardwood and 5 of their L/6 overall. It must also be noted that NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are a positive long term betting situation as they are 54-20 SU L/22 seasons. Also Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are a bankroll expanding 53-18 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Mavericks are playing top tier basketball at the moment as is evident by  on their  three-game winning streak  and overall  have won four of five trips to the hardwood. Thanks in part to a strong effort on  defense. Against  Utah  the Mavs held the Jazz to 31.3 percent field goal shooting after keeping Chicago and Oklahoma City under 40 percent in the previous two tilts. Tonight against a banged up Golden State team that looks out of sync of late and  playing without Steph Curry, I feel the Mavs have an advantage here as underdogs . on their own home floor. 

DALLAS is 35-18 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 28-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 18-8 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons.

Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Warriors are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 12-38 ATS 5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 59-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 

The well rested Charlotte Hornets will be very ready to take down a  Philadelphia 76ers  off a gruelling game against the Utah Jazz last night. The Sixers have played well at home this season , but are just 2-7 on the road, and are fade material in this spot vs a side that was embarrassed by Cleveland last time out . But now on 3 days rest Charlotte will be out looking for redemption and also for revenge for a 133-132 OT  loss last week on the road to the Sixers. That game  showed me that the Hornets matchup well against their opponents as did a 105-103 loss in their first meeting here in Charlotte. 

 CHARLOTTE is 13-0 ATS  versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS  in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons

Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive unders, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 64-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days is 25-6 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential clicking in at 6.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 45-16 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking at 6 points. 

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

New Orleans at one point  in the early part of the season lost 6 straight games, and then won three straight. Two of those wins were vs struggling  Phoenix and Chicago,  so Im not going to give them a great deal of accolades. The final  win came against a Raptors team that looked exhausted and did not look themselves. Than last time out the Pelicans lost again, and did not look cohesive vs the Minnesota Wolves on the road. I can't put my finger on it but HC Gentry lead squad just does not seem to make all the moving parts   work in coordination, with Defence, being their key problem point as they rank 27th in the league allowing an average of 115.8 ppg. I know tonights opponent the New York Knicks will not inspire bettors, but their desperate for a win and or  to even stay competitive after 3 straight DD losses, and will be hell bent on not being embarrassed again. The Pelicans in their current form just do not seem like 10 points plus chalk, not even against a struggling Knicks team. With that said, Ill take the points with the lesser of two evils.

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS is 2-12 ATS  in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season.

NBA team (NEW YORK) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102  or more PPG), after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 49-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

Two teams vying for supremacy on the Eastern Conference go head to head tonight as the Toronto Raptors visit the Boston Celtics tonight.Toronto started their campaign 12-1 but have suffered back to back losses at home to the Pelicans and Pistons and are just 3-2 on the road . Truth is the Raptors did not pace themselves out of the gate, and could easily be in pause mode, as they recuperate from exerting to much energy. Meanwhile, Boston has not always looked consistent in the early going this season, but are still a fine team, especially in the defensive end of the court where they rank 2nd in the league allowing just 101.9 ppg. Tonight Im betting their D, and home court advantage will be the difference maker in what Im also betting will be a Celtics win and cover. 

Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 ATS  L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more 61-11 SU L/5 season for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics 

The Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors are front runners for a Eastern Conference championship, and when these two hard nosed competitors meet this evening, Im expecting a very physical affair  that will base alot of action on each team focusing on  transitional defence. The Raptors rank 9th in defensive efficiency while the Celtics rank 1st in Defensive efficiency.  Im betting on  a post season type affair that will not be very free flowing and a end result of a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total.

TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored.  

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 4-0 UNDER this season and  36-14 UNDER  L/22 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Philadelphia 76ers just do not look cohesive of late, and now with big ego Jimmy Butler in the lineup after a trade with Minnesota might still have problems going forward. Yes, I know how talented Butler is, (all you have to do is ask him) but there are reasons why he didn't want to be in Minnesota and its not because of the cold weather .In my humble opinion Butler at this point in his career is not a team player, and Im betting at least for the foreseeable future will be a negative influence on Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid and how well this team plays as a group especially in key situations. Time will tell if Im wrong, but for tonight Im betting a Jazz team off an embarrassing effort last time out vs Dallas, shooting just  31.3 percent from the field and 17 percent from 3-point range, will be primed for a bounce back redemption filled effort vs a  over rated  76ers team .

***It must be noted that Utah owns a +0.11 SRS while, Philadelphai has -0.58 SRS. ( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

UTAH is 43-27 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. are just 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will bang heads tonight in what promises to be a physical affair. The Warriors will be without the often injured Step Curry but are expected to  have Draymond Green back in the lineup  but may not play a great deal becasue of a toe issue, which should slow their offensive production and see them more concentrated on sound defensive play. The Warriors as per news reports and obvious on court confrontations among themselves , are showing us what its like when this many big egos are put into the same dressing room. But when the game starts their still a team to contend with and Im betting come out here and play hard as a team. Meanwhile, the Rockets thanks to keeping pretty boy Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines , are a more rugged team , behind a under rated defense continues to improve as is evident by a 6th overall ppg defesnive ranking and a methodical calculated pace that is 29th in the league. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 73-31 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Portland has gone under the total in 7 of their L/8 games thanks to playing a top tier brand of defence, that has seen them hold 4 different opponents to 93 points or less. The Blazers own the leagues 5th best D ,both in points allowed  106.2 and efficiency 105.9 and will primed to grind the free wheeling Lakers down in this spot and not allow them flow. This Im betting takes a more than enough points off this totals number to seen this score stay on the low side of the digits. Note: Lakers games have had some bloated Totals attached to them which has resulted in 7 of their L/8 games and and 5 in row failing to eclipse the total . The L/7 meetings here in LA between these two teams have stayed under the total.

Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.Under is 6-0-1 in Lakers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2-1 in Lakers last 8 Wednesday games.

 Portland is 13-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 46-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 49-20 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Milwaukee has played some great ball this season , but lately have alternated wins and losses during their L/6 games, and are of a win last time out. They are getting alot of accolades, but this season is still early and my own rankings and stats analysis show some regression. Meanwhile, Memphis enters this game a little banged up , but its mostly depth players and as long as Conley remains healthy and on the court the other Grizzlies as a whole can feed of his energy. From a matchup perspective Memphis is not an easy team to play against, as they sport the leagues best defence behind the leagues slowest pace and Im betting they can cause problems for a team like the Bucks that needs to run a free flowing system to play at an optimal level. With that said, Im betting we have value taking points here with the visitors.

Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bucks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.

MILWAUKEE is 18-45 ATS L/63 as a favorite of 10 or more points. HC Budenholzer is 3-13 ATS  in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games in all games he has coached.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 3-24 ATSL/5 seasons for a go against 85% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

Golden State played last night in LA vs the Clippers . That  game went into to OT, as they lost by a 121-116 count. Now on tired legs as they prepare to play on back to back nights and with the added inconvenience of being without the often injured Curry in the lineup the Warriors will not be as ferocious as usual, and could easily be over looking this lower level opponent. When your a team like the Warriors that has had so much successes in this league of late, its easy to become a little bit to comfortable . Meanwhile, Im betting on rising star Trae Young to come out flying and inspired tonight in an attempt to upend the champs. Im really expecting two different energy levels here in this spot and getting  points to eventually be golden. 

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less  reb/game) are 16-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The Nuggets are suddenly struggling  for the first time this season and despite of being  (9-4) have lost three straight  and two in a row at home and has had trouble with energy levels and consistency of late which culminated in allowing their opposition to hit on 57%+ of their FG last time out. . Meanwhile, Houston showed some life last time out, posting a impressive 115-103 victory over a very deep  Indiana team.  Im betting on the Nuggets issues to continue here tonight and for the Rockets to build off of their last effort. 

HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 4-14 ATS in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Houston has won and covered their L/3 trips to the Mile High City. 

NBA Road teams (HOUSTON) - struggling team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or more on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 30-8 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

The Clippers' own a  defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by  Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to  deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented  backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers  will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. 

LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER  in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. 

Play UNDER 

With the negative influence of Jimmy Butler saga gone now after he was traded to the 76ers on the weekend, the Minnesota  Wolves should feel like they now have a second life, and Im betting will be energized and  thrive here tonight vs the Brooklyn Nets. Yes, the Nets  are up-trending, but are on  tired legs as  they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and off a  extremely exhausting and demanding game vs the Warriors last time out. . The Nets are now   in the unenviable position of playing against a pumped up  team that needs desperately to turn their season around after a ugly 0-5 road trip. 

MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 70-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg)  behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

The  Boston Celtics successes  in recent years has been their ability to play top tier  defence, but recently especially on this current road trip they look to be struggling .As a result  the Celtics have lost 3 of their L/4 games and have failed to cover 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Portland their hosts tonight are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and have won 3 straight and 6 of their L/7 behind some solid two way basketball that has result in allowing 3 of their L/7opponents to score 93 points or less. With that said, Im recommending we lay the short lumber here with the Blazers.

 PORTLAND is 35-23 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. HC Stotts is 11-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more as the coach of PORTLAND.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 26-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average point differential clicking in at 12.8 ppg.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 29-3 SU L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 14.9 ppg. 

Play on Portland to cover 

Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this  or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. 

The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. 

DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

 When you first look at this matchup would might assume that the Magic are the superior side, and deserve to be slight favourites here on the road, because of there better play of late as compared to their struggling counterparts. But according to my power rankings charts, and the Orlandos history of ATS futility I feel we have value on a picket line with the ver hungry home team. I know the Kncisk lost last night to Toronto, but I liked their offensive flow in a 128 -112 loss and feel like it could carry into this game. Note The Magic are 11-23 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Orlando took out the reeling Wizards last time out at home in Central Florida , but are just 3-13 ATS  off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

Since 1989, sub win percent than opponent underdogs off of a win against a team that just played on the road are just 58-97-5 ATS/61-120 SU  in regular season when the final margin of their last game was smaller than the margin going into the fourth quarter. (Orlando)

Orlando HC Clifford is 9-23 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games. 

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 5-24 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Indiana Pacers currently rank very high on my power ranking charts, while Houston is sinking like a rock, and in their current form look very much like fade material. The Rockets are talented but their seems to be an issue with flow and chemistry right now. Add to that their on tired legs in this spot, after finishing off an extended 5 game road trip that resulted in them losing their last two tilts including one last night in San Antonio . This is actually the Rockets 2nd back to back game scenario in the L/9 days, so Im betting their going to be exhausted. Meanwhile, the Pacers  despite of losing 2 of their L/3 games are a deep team that works at an accelerated pace, and Im betting the Rockets wont be able to handle their speed in their current form.I

NDIANA is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasonsINDIANA is 23-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.D'Antoni is 8-21 ATS in home games in non-conference games as the coach of HOUSTON.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate witht he average point differntial clicking in a 6.4 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Hornets have consistently proven their not an easy out , as was the case in their last trip to the hardwood vs the Philadelphia 76ers on the road as they lost a heart breaking 133-132 OT decision. Now with rest they come back out looking to rebound vs a inconsistent Detroit team, that just recently ended a 5 game losing streak with a pair of wins vs lower tier teams  Orlando and Atlanta. Tonight against this run and gun and high energy Charlotte group Im betting this Motown crew is at a disadvantage.

DETROIT is 19-35 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - poor three point shooting team ( 33% or less ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 23-73 SU lL22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. 

SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER  after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Houston despite of their talent level are not playing up to expectations, but from a systems  matchup perspective have an edge here even though they are playing in enemy territory but still not far from home. The Rockets were hammered in their last trip to the hardwood, snapping a 3 game winning streak , losing to the Thunder 98-80. . That loss came in their 4th straight road game, and the team as a whole looked pooched. Now  with some rest  and back in Texas the Rockets will  be out looking for redemption, for that last loss  which gives us a motivated team to back. HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS L/9  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Note: I didn't like the way the Spurs looked last time out in a 95-88 loss to Miami. Coach Popovich essentially insulted his group calling them soft. Im not sure that will ignite them if thats truly what he thinks they are. I personally feel that Pops might have something here, as the Spurs don't seem to like to work inside. The Spurs  shot  a ugly 33% in that loss to the Heat, but made 13 of 32 from beyond the arc preferring to do their work from the outside. In what the lines makers think will be a closely contested affair, Ill take what I for at least now perceive to be tougher clutch team ( Rockets)

HOUSTON is 18-8 ATS L/26  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets took three of the four meetings from the Spurs last season.

 Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 75-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Houston to cover 

The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3.  Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on  their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency   Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a  top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed   (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their  29th  ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. 

MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

 Washington has quite honestly looked horrendous this season, with five of their defeats coming  by double-digits, Washington is allowing 120.5 points per game and has already allowed at least 134 points three times. Just nasty numbers, and until they can get this ship righted look very much to be fade material, even against a young inconsistent Orlando group. The Magic are still trying tolearn to win, and have shown some signs of waking up of late and have won 2 of their L/3, and despite of a loss last time to Detroit as they still shot 46 percent but were some how outscored 25-16 in the fourth when they shot 5 of 16 and committed nine turnovers.  These I consider to be growing pains for a team like the Magic and their more than capable of turning things around and getting us a cover here at home tonight.WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and just 20-38 ATS  as a favourite over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

The 76ers are playing their best basketball at home, and have won all 6 tilts as hosts this season, and once again look like strong candidates to get the job done again vs Charlotte and more importantly cover the number. I know the Hornets played the 76ers tough the first time they met this season, losing by a 105-103 count, but Im expecting after reassessing their opponents   a wider margin of victory this time around, for the home side ,even though Charlotte is exuding confidence and saying they feel they can hang with the Sixers. 

PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff coming in at 10.9 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-25 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with an average point diff of 6.4 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with he average point diff clicking in at 9.5 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by  having  held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The LA Lakers  and their super star LeBron James will  primed  to up their game,  after being embarrassed last time out  vs the Toronto Raptors at home getting blasted by DDs. James is the kind of big ego super star who hates to be beat, and Im betting he will be energized and ready to make a statement here tonight vs a struggling Minnesota team that has lost all 6 of their road games this season and on tired legs as they play their 4th  away game in less than a week. Note: The Timberwolves have lost 20 of their L/21 as road dogs SU, with the average  score diff clicking in at 11 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Chicago enters this road game  vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of  offense  ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. 

HC Gentry Pelicans   in their L/21  home games when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)  have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19   in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. 

CHICAGO in its L/24 games  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Steve Clifford called this young talented Orlando group out 3 games ago after they got smashed by the Clippers losing by 25 points at home. Since that embarrassment they have bounced back with two straight wins  shooting a combined  47.7%  vs the  San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers . I really like the energy this team has right now, and feel they have an edge in a tilt vs a Detroit Pistons team still trying to find an identity under new HC Casey. Detroit is also in major funk as is evident by their current five-game losing streak,  behind some dismal shooting which clicks in at a lowly 40.5 percent, 25.3 percent on 3-pointers while averaging 105.4 points. We have two teams playing at the proverbial  opposite end of the performance spectrum , and taking the points with the  up trending MAGIC is my recommendation. 

Detroit has failed to cover 19 of their L/25 on the road with a +3 to -3 line. Orlando has won 4 straight at home in this series and are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall meetings.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

 These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes  in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. 

PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.

NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Nets have won 2 of their L/3 and are an up trending team, according to my power rankings. They have been getting more cohesive because the team is beginning to jell and their chemistry stabilizing because they have used the same starting five -- LeVert, Russell, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen and  Jared Dudley ,in each of their first 10 games. Im betting their abilities as a unit will be to much for the Suns to handle tonight ,as it was for the 76ers in their last game.( Brooklyn beat Philly on Sunday night 122-97 as dogs). BROOKLYN is 9-1 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I know the Suns snapped a 7 game losing streak last time out, but are just 0-4 ATS L/4 in their followup. 

Note: Brooklyn has struggled with their D, at times this season, but Phoenix is not the kind of team that can take advantage of this as is evident by a 4-17 L/21 ATS mark vs struggling Defences, 106 or more point per game. 

BROOKLYN is 20-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons.

Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Toronto despite of being offensively explosive and on a current 3 game winning streak , bump into a tough scheduling situation on the road tonight, as they are on tired legs after playing in the LA last night vs the Lakers, and with this being their 3rd game in 4nights could find the sledding tough as this game progresses in the thin air of Salt Lake City. Add to that key two way stalwart Kawhi Leonard remains less than 100%  with a a ankle injury . Meanwhile, Utah despite of a current 3 game losing streak, are still a hard out behind a  physical brand of hoops that matches up well vs the Raptors style of play. I know the Utah is 0-3 at home so far the campaign and their-usually sound D, has shown some early season inconsistencies, but hey this is great spot for them to come out of their current funk, and get rolling in the right direction. With that said, Im betting on Utah playing hard tonight and getting us the cover. 

UTAH is 27-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 21-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate .

NBA Favorites (TORONTO) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% orless on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 6-24 ATS for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Boston (6-3) enters this Mile High City game off a  loss that snapped a 4 game win streak, last time out vs Indiana on Saturday night, in a hard fought physical affair.  The Celtics will of course now be primed for a bounce back. But like Mick Jagger and his Rolling Stones like to say  " You Don;t Always get What you Want". The Celtics are a fine team that bases their successes and failures on playing very good two way hoops, and nothing will change tonight vs a team playing with similar mind set . Meanwhile, their opponents the (8-1, 5-0 Home) Denver Nuggets are also a team that is now sold on playing strong defence and being aggressive offensively. Right now both team are playing similar basketball, with the difference maker Im betting coming via the Nuggets strong home court advantage and the Nuggets up-trending  ability to guard against the the Downtown Trey. Note:Denver's 3-point defense was last in the league in 2017-18 but has improved significantly in that area in the first nine games of this season. Boston takes 37.3 shots from 3-point range, third in the NBA, and has launched a total of 101 in it last two games. Boston is a fine team, and must be respected ,but for tonight, they go on my temporary fade list. 

DENVER is 34-17 ATS L/51 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite .

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-41 L/5 seasons for go against  76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average point differential coming by 5.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 90 points or less are 65-8  L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 11.8 ppg.  TEAM 109.7 Opp 97.9

Play on Denver to cover 

I have watched both these teams play this season, and like the vibe of the Knicks  as compared to the inconsistent tone of the  Bulls. That 's an old school and simplistic way of looking at teams , but from past experiences can bring to light  an extremely accurate  perspective on certain types of matchups. Its like letting your sense of smell ,indicate if something stinks or not. I dont mean to be derogatory , as the Bulls have been competitive  , but coach Hoiberg cant  seem to keep this young groups flow going for a full 48 minutes.   My power rankings also agree with my assessments, thus giving the home team NYK the edge in this spot play between two teams that do not inspire bettors. Note from a SRS perspective Chicago ranks 26th at -7.29, while Knicks rank 20th at -3.13. Defensively the Knicks are ranked 10th in the league, which gives them an edge vs a side with the 23rd ranked Off.

SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

 The Knicks have won their L/2 home games as chalk this season vs Atlanta and Brooklyn and are playing another team they matchup well against.

CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a struggling team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 2-23 L/5 seasons for a go against SU 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 6.9 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Let me start off by saying that the Raptors are a talented disciplined team with or without the often injured Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. So me choosing the Raptors to win this game is not based on on him playing tonight, even though reports out of Toronto say that he practiced yesterday and looked fine, and is scheduled to have tomorrow night off as the Raptors prepare to play back to back games, but should play tonight if he so chooses. With that said, look for the leadership of the Raptors Kyle Lowry who leads the NBA at 11.2 assists per game and who has reached double digits in assists in a career-high seven straight games to be the key difference maker here today, against a ruttlerless, Lakers team that has talent, but no real system . With that said, in game that is essentially a pickem Im betting the Raptors  out work a Lakers  team that despite of resting key players like James  in the later stages of last nights game will still have a tired bench, and at a disadvantage vs a deep team that is dangerous and knows how to win.

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Raptors are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 25-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors..

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

 The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3)  and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort.  I  now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total.

Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg.

WASHINGTON's L/50 games  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Denver Nuggets are playing at a high level at the moment, and look hell bent on getting to the play offs this season, behind a talented group. Their off one days rest but should be very fresh after beating Cleveland last time out as no starter played more than 28 minutes in the game. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Utah Jazz are a banged up group that is on tired legs as they play on back to back nights  and 3rd game in 4 nights, and their 5th game of the week. Utah is a fine team, but the energy they have exerted over a short period of time Im betting effects their performance tonight. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Pelicans  a team on a ugly 4 game losing skid and on  tired legs prepare to play  their third game in four nights and for the fourth game of a five-contest road trip tonight against a Spurs team that has impressed me with their new look, as key cogs Aldridge, DeRozen, continue to play at a high level. Im have alot of respect for Spurs coach Popovich and I'm not a big believer in Pelicans coach Gentry;s  wreck-less take no prisoners run and gun system. With Pelicans Star forward Anthony Davis at less than 100% with various nagging injuries, Im betting against the Pelicans here tonight in the Alamo city. 

Spurs are  30-8 straight up against Pelicans since 1996 in San Antonio. 

San Antonio  to cover 

Indiana is  a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg.

Play UNDER 

We have two teams currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Washington on a current 4 game losing streak, and the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on a 3 game win streak. From a matchup perspective and player to player/system vs system standpoint the Thunder also have the edge and have what every coach loves,  a hard working never say die group. So Im not worried bout them being on tired legs here tonight after playing last night. A recent quote also exhibits the respect the Thunder have for each other which will only add to their current positive chemistry. QUOTE: "I'm fortunate I play with one of the baddest (expletive) in this league," George told the Oklahoman about hiss super star team mate Wetbrook. "Excuse my language, but it's the best way to describe him. Just straight toughest dude out there." END QUOTE.

I can't describe Washingtons current performances with the same admiration, and Im fading them here tonight, and in the near future till they show me they can be more consistent and compete when the going gets tough. 

Look for another key difference maker tonight to come via the Thunders superior Charity stripe shooting.The Thunder lead the NBA in free throws attempted per game and made 21 of 29 Thursday night.

WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall.Wizards are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wizards are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Wizards are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.  

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 73-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind. 

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets  enter this game against Brooklyn having lost their five games by an average of 14.4 points and were blown off the court last time in embarrassing DD fashion by Portland 104-85. They also have trailed by at least 20 points for 39:10 after trailing by at least 20 points in a league-low 12:51 last season. Their 1-5 record is indicative of just how little effort they seem to be putting into games , and its not because of James Hardens absence. But despite of this here I am laying points with them on the road . Call me crazy, but Im expecting the Rockets to wake up long enough tonight to put the hammer down on a Brooklyn Nets team that my power rankings and cross reference player to player and system matchup suggest  favour the Rockets . Note: HC D'Antoni is 24-8 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.D'Antoni is 8-0 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games are 2-27 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 93% for bettors. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

These teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum to begin their seasons. So its obvious from a statistical handicapping  outlook, that one would have to consider the Nuggets the superior side in their current form. The only important question left for me to answer , is whether the Cavs with momentum can cover here at home,  vs a Denver team that looks pooched and barely escaped Chicago with a 108-107 win last night and now paying their 3rd game in 4 nights on tired legs.  The answer , Im betting is the Cavs off their first win of the season last time out and on fresher legs  can and will make a game of this and get us the cover. 

Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HC Malone is 16-29 ATS off a road win as the coach of DENVER. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Cavs won 136-114 vs Atlanta last time out.

DENVER is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Wolves looked strong in a 124-120 win over the Los Angeles Lakers last time out,  as both Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns played well. The trade rumours associated with Butler are something he might be feeding off, instead of it effecting him in a negative way. Tonight Im betting the Wolves, are up to the task on their own home floor of dealing with a  quality Utah side that might be dealing with a little fatigue as they play their 4th straight road game, and 3rd game in 4 nights. 

MINNESOTA is 35-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-4 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 7-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 20-48 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Charlotte beat Miami in their first meeting this season in Florida, by a 113-112 count a 3.5 point dogs and according to my power rankings and more advanced statistical head to head situations matchup well against the Heat . This is strictly a matchup comparison based on how the Hornets play teams like Miami.  With that said, lets lay the short lumber with the home team.

CHARLOTTE is 12-0 ATS  versus struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12  or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Road underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games are 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

New HC Drew will coach the winless Cavaliers Tuesday night when the Hawks visit town. The lines makers are leaning on the hapless Cavs to suddenly come to life and  jump off their death beds long enough to win and cover vs a Atlanta team that handily  beat  them by DDs in their first meeting this season by a 133-111 count. Drew might turn this team around eventually , but they are not viable favorites right now and are still fade material until Im proven wrong. You have to remember this was a team without a system last year, under former HC Lue and just played off the energy of LeBron James. Now with no James, a huge albatross hangs over the team, and until they shake those effects off, they are destined to getting punched out on a consistent basis. With their talent base, the Cavs will get going eventually but not just yet as key starter Kevin Love remains on the sidelines with an injury.Cleveland enters the game as one of the league's worst defensive teams with a defensive rating of 120.1 while allowing 118.5 points per game and lost 119 -107 to Indiana last time out. 

CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS  in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Atlanta to cover 

In  game 4 of their season the Orland Magic  shocked the NBA pundits with a defensive gem and win vs the Boston Celtics . But that upset for  Orlando Magic  has seen them playing with a hang over in two straight games which resulted in ulgy DD losses. In  Saturday's loss vs Milwaukee, the Magic shot 32.7 percent (33 of 101) and in their three double-digit losses, they are shooting 33.9 percent (112 of 281) and overall they are shooting 41.2 percent, which is among the bottom feeders in percentages in the league. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings are in a rhythm and have now won three straight games and must be respected in the underdog role here today in their current form. 

ORLANDO is 5-16 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (SACRAMENTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-7 SU for a 88% conversion rate dating back 22 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (ORLANDO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

LeBron James  and company enter this game playing inconsistently, one night they look like possible championship contenders and than on others they simply don't as their 2-4 record might indicate.  When James was with the Cavaliers the same type of efforts became common place, as the team did not play a system, and rather just lived and died off the energy of the Great one. Prior to their loss to the Spurs on the road last time out, James had a Triple , double, and has now averaged 27.3 ppg on the season. Tonight Im betting on the super star rebounding and leading his team to victory vs  a side that could easily find themselves distracted by the Jimmy Butler trade rumours. 

Minnesota is 0-4 ATS L/4 vs Western Conference.

NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-6 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 26-3 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Two undefeated 6-0 teams with new HCs go head to head tonight, but Im betting home court advantage will be the ultimate difference maker as Milwaukee behind Giannis Antetokoumpo and the  chemistry stable group of Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are currently in break neck form. I know the Raptors must be respected behind Kawhi Leonard and talented group, but after watching both teams play, I like the way the Bucks matchup against the Raptors and recommend we go on the take with Milwaukee. A 

TORONTO is 44-71 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins . 

Bucks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 29-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 22-3 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 2-26 SU for a go against  93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

After a slow start to their campaign the mighty Golden State Warriors have really been a groove and smashed their L/3 opponents by DDs. I know their hosts the Brooklyn Nets are far from being as talented as the visitors, but the scheduling of this tilt does Im betting give them an advantage as the Warriors could be using this game as a rest stop as they prepare to embark  on a exhausting 3 games in four night road excursion right after tonights game starting in Chicago. Right now Steve Kerrs group feel pretty good about themselves, and I doubt they will outright overlook their opponents, but what Im betting they will do, is be in energy reserving mode. One last thing, Steve Kerr has said he happy with the golden crews performance of late, but has some issues with their lack of defensive play, and they could use this tilt to get back into a more pressure oriented defensive mode of hoops which will slow this game down, and in turn give Brooklyn a team that is last in the league in pace to play a speed that suits their style of play , and gives them a much better chance at covering the number.

Warriors are 5-11 ATS L/16 vs the Nets as visitors. 

BROOKLYN is 14-3 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.Kerr is 13-26 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 3-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

A lot of pundits are looking at this game as a easy win for the incoming Lakers behind LeBron James and company, especially after the headlines the Great One made by registering  his triple , double last time out. However, Im not in that corner, and believe HC Popovich has the ability  to mold  this team into a system that has made the Spurs one of the best defensive teams in the NBA , and right their current ship quickly. I know that has not been the case so far, but Im a big believer in Popovich and his abilities. With that said, tonight Im betting the Spurs will have success on their own home floor against a side, that does not have any implemented system, other than following the energy of James. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher have failed to win 19 of the L/26 opportunities. 

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

Milwaukee 5-0 on the season behind Giannis Antetounmpo and his explosive offensive side kick Middleton make up one of the  NBA's top tier of young duo of stars . Under new HC Mike Budenholzer this team is finally showing consistency and swagger. You can feel it , the Bucks are for real as long as this duo can stay healthy. The Bucks  lead the league in 3-point conversions  (16.0) and attempts (41.8) per game and are clicking at a 38.3 percent clip, good for ninth in the league. Tonight against a Orland side, allowing an average of 12.6 made 3-pointers on 32.4 attempts, I expect the over powering down town action to continue and for the Bucks to cruise to victory and more importantly a cover. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or lesser 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Heat have been plagued by injuries early this season but Im not sure thats been a a bad thing, as from the  rubble of all those  injuries, has emerged some top tier talent as shooting guard Josh Richardson (19.3) has stepped up as Miami's leading scorer as well as  McGruder who is averaging 16.5 points. It might not look like it but this Heat team must still be respected here on their own home floor. With the Blazers on tired legs as they prepare to play their 4 th game in 7 days, Im betting we have value taking a fresher team. Also look for Heat All-Star point guard Goran Dragic to spend a lot of his efforts successfully corralling Blazers star Lillard. 

PORTLAND is 5-17 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 51-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Miami to cover

Both these teams according to my power rankings are fairly evenly matched, with an obligatory 3 to 4 point home court advantage thrown in, we have an edge on the line in what under most circumstances should result in a closely contested affair.This  makes getting points golden in my humble opinion. Look for both teams to continue to struggle defensively and for both sides to center their attack around their perspective young stars,  Chicago's Wendell Carter Jr., the team's first-round pick from Duke, and Atlanta's Trae Young. The difference maker tonight however, Im betting comes on the back of veteran  Zach LaVine, who averages 32.3 points and leads the Bulls in points. Hard fought battle here = taking points. 

ATLANTA is 30-49 ATS L/79 in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% or less ).CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Kings won last time out and played good defence in  a winning 97-92 effort vs Memphis, but previous to that the Kings allowed their  first four opponents to average 129.5 points  . Meanwhile, the visiting Washington Wizards are playing all out take no prisoners run and gun basketball, and have an edge playing that type of ball vs a team like Sacramento according to my power rankings.  It looks like a laying a little lumber on the road, here in the early part of the season, is worth the roll, considering how wide open a lot of NBA games have been this season. This league like a lot of others is changing towards high scoring entertainment. Key word entertainment, and I must make myself aware of this and think and reaches my handicapping techniques on the fly. Used to be a time when laying lumber with a team with the Wizards would not be a option for me, but now, at least for now,  until the smoke clears, and a steady stream of stats becomes accessible and plausible I'm saying Lay it folks. 

Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 33-1SU and 17-0 L/3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 12.9 ppg. 

NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons  for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

The Denver Nuggets are playing top tier basketball to start their season, as is evident by their 4-0 record behind a defence that is allowing just 99.8 ppg. The Nuggets are just one of two teams keeping opponents under the century mark the other is the Celtics. So needless to say they deserve our respect, and the lines makers agree with the obvious assessments. Meanwhile, the Lakers look disorientated and banged up recording a 1-3 record, after getting their first win vs the Suns last time out. The Nuggets have already won at Staples Center this season, recording  a 107-98 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Oct. 17. They followed that win up by sweeping a three-game homestand, including a middle game victory against the Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA champions. I know LeBron James is a dangerous component to have to face in enemy territory but in their current form the Nuggets looks capable of doing so in a positive fashion. Im not a big proponent of road chalk, at above 3.5 points , but this line looks beatable and thus Ill recommend we take the matchup edge and lay the short lumber. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 38-12 ATS L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAHome underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 SU L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate SU with he point differential clicking in at 5.1 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Grizzlies  are off a dismal season , garnering  60 losses , but  with the often injured Conely back in the lineup they looked good in their  two-game Western swing pulling off a  a 92-84 upset victory at Utah on Monday night. Despite of the Grizzlies impressive win, Im not going to get to caught up in that early season performance, and instead focus on their overall makeup. Yes, the Grizzlies have some talent, but their are some flaws as well, as was thecae in a ugly DD loss to Indian in their season opener, and Im not ready to accept them as road favs just yet, especially vs a under rated  Sacramento team that deserves respect after taking out Oklahoma City 131-120 in their 3rd game of the season. Look for former Grizzlies castoff  veteran Zach Randolph to be pumped to play his old team today and show them that he still has some gas left in the tank. I like the Kings to cover here and won't be surprised if they grab a SU win.

MEMPHIS is 18-34 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 31-14 ATS L/45 in home games versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting  30 or more  free throws/game.

NBA  team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 15+ losses in last 20 games are 9-33 L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors with a a point differential clicking at 7 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (MEMPHIS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento  to cover 

Tonight we have two banged up teams with a boatload full of injuries. From a matchup perspective from who is expected to play tonight, I like the Knicks group to be able to cover the number behind  leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. (27.0), and  very under rated Knicks center Enes Kanter  who is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 12.3 rebounds), and speedy point guard Trey Burke who leads the Knicks  in assists (5.3) and ranks third in scoring (13.3). NYK have covered 3 of their L/4 meetings in Miami and get the nod again in this spot. 

NBA ome favorites (MIAMI) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 30-60 ATS L/22 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (MIAMI) - terrible shooting team (41.5% or less ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 TO's or more ) are 35-85 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors with he average point differential clicking in at 5.8 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Atlanta  and their high-scoring rookie Trae Young  prepare to play their first home game of the season at State Farm Arena when the Atlanta Hawks host the Dallas Mavericks this Wednesday. The Mavericks (2-1) have won two straight games, with rookie Luka Doncic averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, but things won't come so easily here on the road vs a Hawks team that owns a  4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Mavericks. I know both sides have different cogs in their line now, but my early season power rankings suggest the Hawks must not be underestimated on their own home floor. Both have taken part in some high scoring affairs as has been common place earlier this season, but from a stats chart I keep on possession time/pace and shot percentage performance I like the Hawks in this spot. 

Dallas : PTS/G: 118.3 (9th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.0 (25th of 30)

SRS: -13.63 (28th of 30) Pace: 100.2 (20th of 30)

Off Rtg: 118.1 (4th of 30) Def Rtg: 121.8 (28th of 30)

Atlanta : PTS/G: 119.0 (6th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.7 (26th of 30)

SRS: -10.14 (26th of 30) Pace: 108.4 (1st of 30)

Off Rtg: 109.8 (16th of 30) Def Rtg: 113.1 (20th of 30)

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 8-19 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion are for bettors.

NBAteam vs the money line (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games are 3-24 L/22 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The Pelicans are looking explosive out of the gate to start their season, and are off back to back  DD blowout wins. They have also been money makers for their backers since late last season cashing 14 of their L/16 games overall and have been good bets at home cashing 11 of their L/14 ( NO 115  Opp  107.1)  Needless to say this an explosive team that must be respected.  Meanwhile, the Clippers 2-1 after starting their season with three straight home games now go on the road and I'm betting won't find the bayou atmosphere so welcoming. I admit the Clippers have looked cohesive despite of going through a retooling process , and can't be discounted as viable opponent, but Im betting they will be over matched here vs a Pelicans team that plays a break neck pace. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 17-86 L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% SU with the average point differential clicking in at 9.1 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops.

Focusing on these two teams  the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors  in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option  tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. 

My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here.  Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new  data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities.

From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

These 2-0 teams will go head to head tonight in the mile high city, with Denver Im betting having an edge on the line and could easily pullout the SU upset. Golden State has already played hard fought games vs Oklahoma State and Utah, and could have problems up here in the thin air of the Rockies as this game progresses after those two previous physical battles. I know  Denver played last night, but their a very well conditioned team, and won't have any problems keeping up here .

GOLDEN STATE is 29-42 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

The Nuggets beat the two-time champs twice last year, and  have beaten Golden State five times in the Steve Kerr era. Several Warriors have a history of struggling at Denver, including Durant, who has made just 36 of 106 (34.0 percent) 3-pointers in 19 career games at Denver, and Klay Thompson, who has never score more than 21 points in any of his 11 visits to the Pepsi Center.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 34-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% SU conversion rate making this viable trend when looking at an ATS edge. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Tonight Dallas has their home opener against a very good Minnesota team, but Im betting they will be up to the task off being very competitive and getting us the cover even though their without Harrison Barnes. I'm also not reading to much into their loss vs the Suns in their opener as Phoenix is a much better team than people realize at this point in the season. I also expect newly acquired Euro star Doncic to be primed to play a big game in front of Mark Cuban and the Mavs fans tonight . This top tier player is acclimating much faster to the NBAs physical game than I anticipated and  is really impressive and can easily control a games tempo. Look for his teammates and fans to feed off his energy tonight and make this an electric environment. 

 DALLAS is 14-4 ATS in home games against Northwest division opponents.DALLAS is 29-15 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Carlisle is 30-12 ATS  off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. 

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

The line has moved off the opener of -2.5 and and rightly so and Im betting we have value here backing the new small ball Detroit Pistons right up to -4.  The Pistons won their first game of the season against the Brooklyn Nets 103-100 behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond despite of being a little short handed with two starters out. The Pistons found a way to hold the fort and  win was a positive sign in the midst of plenty of teachable moments, Casey told reporters Thursday. Pistons now coached by Dwane Casey are a fast team,  that works the inside well and hold key matchup problems for teams like the Chicago Bulls that are off a 127-108 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Note NBA Road favorites  (DETROIT) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 8.5 ppg. 

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Raptors come into this game in a letdown situation as they visit the Washington Wizards Saturday night after a  113-101 win over the preseason Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics. They will now be at a disadvantage vs a Washington side off a loss in their home opener to Miami 113-112 and that   will now be out looking for redemption against what could be an Eastern Conference front runner. Actually Torontos top tier projections centre on whether the often injured Kawhi Leonard remains healthy enough to stay in the lineup . He has missed an average of 30% of his games during his career and already missed to play off runs.

Tonight Im betting for Wizards star Bradely Beal to lead the way for the Wizards . He has thrived vs the Raptorsin the recent past and had 38 points in their first meeting of the season last year and two more 30-plus nights in the playoffs.Saturday's game is a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference first-round playoff series in which the Raptors eliminated the Wizards in six games.REVENGE on board for the  home team.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Whether Russel Westbrook plays or not tonight, for the Thunder, I still like the home team the LA Clippers to come out on top. Westbrook after under going what has been described a minor knee procedure  is probably less than 100% despite of being rushed on the court for his first game. I know the media is buzzing about what a great D, the Thunder will have this season, but the Clippers are also deep with defensive talent despite of this being a transition season for them. Both teams lost their openers but the Thunder worked harder than the Clippers in their loss to the Warriors in game 1  and could feel a bit of an emotional letdown, vs a energized Clippers side that has a chance to redeem itself in this their 2nd home game of the season. Clippers HC Rivers is 11-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% or less)

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-27 ATS  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the LA Clippers to win 

The Milwaukee Bucks by new HC  Mike Budenholzer  barley got by the Charlotte Hornets by one point in their first game of the season. But their was some troubling stat lines that tell me not all is well in Milwaukee despite of a talented roster. In that above mentioned win the Bucks  committed 21 turnovers and  blew a  20-point lead . Add to that they allowed the Hornets to shoot 42.1 percent from beyond the arc (44.6 percent overall). That is not a recipe for success against a very under rated Indiana Pacers side that is deep and can light the word up in a hurry, while also playing top tier defence.Indiana opened its season with a easily handling Memphis 111-83 on Wednesday night and look like viable underdogs in this spot. Indiana has won the L/3 meetings in this series, and gets the nod again in this spot play. 

Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA CentralBucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to coverBucks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games.Bucks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

Looking at last years matchups in this series , The Kings beat the Pelicans, 116-109 in overtime and 114-101, in New Orleans while the Pelicans prevailed in both games in Sacramento, 114-106 and 114-101. Im expecting a similar type combed score here tonight. I know both teams put up a boatload full of points in wide open tilts last time out, but a more muted effort after exerting that much energy  and converting at such a high level is a above average probability occurrence in this spot. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, team that had a winning record last season are 27-6  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking at 204 ppg. Also From an extensive data base of more than 2000 games played in the invoicing the Pelicans and other NBA teams the average of tonights  score in similar multiple trends situations is in range between 217 and 224 ppg. So despite of their being no obvious guarantees their still is evidence of this number being slightly bloated thus giving us value.

Play UNDER 

Two rebuilding teams continue their  rivalry  tonight as the  New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do battle in the big apple. Both look evenly matched and I consider this type of game a neutral court event, thus getting points with the Knicks looks like a viable wagering opportunity despite of them playing without key player Kristaps Porzingis. With Tim Hardaway Jr., getting more touches because of Porzingis absence Im betting the Knicks will be a handful for the Nets and have an edge. Add to that the Nets are pretty banged up with  and maybe without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (left adductor), DeMarre Carroll (right ankle surgery), Allen Crabbe (left ankle sprain) and Shabazz Napier (strained right hamstring) who all missed the first game.The Knicks swept the season series by an average of 14.8 points, getting all four wins before Porzingis was lost, but believe they still offer up a lot of bad matchups even with him gone. 

NBA Favorites (BROOKLYN) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the New York Knicks to cover 

The Magic opened up with a 104-101 victory over the Miami Heat, getting the W despite not making a field goal for the final 4 1/2 minutes and after trailing by 14 in the first quarter , telling us  yes small miracles sometimes happen. Im betting in their followup tilt they will not be so fortunate vs a decent looking Hornets squad that despite of a loss in their first game , almost came back from 20 point deficit thanks to some fast paced small ball. According to my team vs team power rankings and matchups the Magic do matchup well vs this type of opposition. Charlotte has won 14 of the last 18 meetings and 4 straight and 10 of its last 12 trips to Orlando and get the nod again in this spot to cover the number. 

 ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

A long term NBA trend shows Home underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are a bad bet as these teams are just 123-191 ATS L/21 seasons for go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Miami Heat enter this tilt vs the their hosts the Washington Wizards on tired legs after playing last night and garnering a hard fought 104-101 loss vs long time instate rivals the Orlando Magic. Im betting things won't get much better , as the Heat are banged up and were shorthanded last night  without James Johnson (sports hernia), Dion Waiters (left ankle), Wayne Ellington (left ankle), and Justise Winslow (right hamstring), and they are expected to miss Thursday's game as well. Look for Washington to be primed to get things rolling in the right direction on opening night behind four key returning starters John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris and possibly newly acquired with the hobbled Dwight Howard, who averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds last season with Charlotte.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 3-25 ATS in their follow up game since 1996 for a longterm go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road underdogs (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

I don't have a lot of perceived early season expectations for both of these teams and both  are on my wait  and see list, with a dozen other sides. One thing Im sure of though is that. Suns first round pick 7'1 center Deandre Ayton will be a key contributor to the Suns successes or failures going forward.  However, from a head to head matchup comparison, I like the Suns chances of victory as shot home chalk, as Dallas will be without their  injured star big man Nowitzki and also small forward Harrison Barnes.  Overall the Mavs don't inspire me considering their current  lineup and expect Euro star acquisition Doncic to take time to acclimated the physical NBA style of play.  From a matchup perspective based on my  my early season power rankings charts, and the fact that key Suns guard  previously injured Devon Booker is expected to play tonight the Suns look like viable choices here at home. Add to that   recent  meetings  that have proven my head to head synopsis correct show the Suns winning all  3 meetings last season SU, including the L/5 meetings overall.DALLAS is 2-11 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

Indiana towards the end of late season, really started to jell as a team, and went into the play offs with a full head of steam, giving the Cleveland Cavaliers all they could handle before folding. Im betting that post season experience will help this team ascend to even higher heights this season. Add to that last seasons entire starting lineup returns intact including the explosive  Oladipo  and a deep bench with the likes of Sabonis , Joseph , McDermott and Quinn as well as first round picks Leaf and Aaron Holiday and you have a dangerous deep team to back. 

Memphis also looks to be much better this season with Conely healthy again after playing only 12 games last season. But unfortunately for the Grizzlies they are going up against what my early season lean suggests is the superior side on this home chalk line. 

INDIANA is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Indiana 110.1 Opposition 101.4

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers are 37-5 SU L/5 seasons for 88% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.5 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The public with a little bit of irrational exuberance  has hit this game hard to go over on the opening Total. However, I myself am expecting  a more constrained defensive effort from both teams as the game progresses despite of this being the opening game of the season on prime time tv. Both teams were ranked top 5 in overall efficiency and overall defensive stats last season, and both were proficient in limiting FG to under 50%. 

Looking at the Boston Celtics they are now introducing two new cogs into their lineup and it may slow them to an extent as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward come back from injuries. Im betting both despite of being big time scorers  take time to  acclimated to the speed of the game  after being off for extended periods of time and it  will take time before they become more cohesive and  jell with their team-mates. Add to that the Sixers usually play at a much faster pace, so the Celtics who had a 102.9 defensive rating at home last season, will primed to slow these guys down as much as possible, in order to throw them out of rhythm and control the pace to their liking. Last years play off experience Im betting pays off here this evening. 

BOSTON L/62 games when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 201.3 ppg go on the board. 

These teams went under in 3 of 4 meetings last season. The one that did go over was on neutral court in London England. 

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GS leads 3-0

There is a story from Greek mythology about Narcissus a man who fell in love with himself after looking into a pool of water. Now in a tongue and cheek manner, I expect  King LeBron James  a self confessed narcissist  , to be hell bent on getting his limelight back after Golden States super star  Durant took it away from him  in game 4 of this series. Don't take me wrong LeBron James is arguably  the best hoops player and overall athlete of this generation, and I respect his talent greatly , so I'm not trying to be make derogatory comments about him. But if you ever listen to him you will come to the conclusion he's in love with himself, and like all great players carries around a huge ego.  I'm betting that  behemoth ego will be a motivating factor into making sure his team does not go down without a fight. I'm not saying it will be enough for a Cleveland victory, but a cover in my humble opinion is a very viable wagering option here this evening in front of the Cleveland faithful.

Golden St  is 0-14 ATS off a game as a road chalk when Durant shot better than 34.5% and was their high-scorer. The Cavs have covered 8 straight times  at home by more than 10 ppg  with rest off a loss as a home dog when they lost three straight vs current opponent and are a perfect  6-0 ATS L/6  as a dog when out looking for same season revenge for a home defeat.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-20 ATS off a road win this season and 10-21 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.Warriors are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Warriors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 24-34 SU L/5 seasons for a less than viable bet.

Play on Cleveland to cover

A lot has been said, about how amazing  LeBron James is. After all the Cavs don't run a system, they run on LeBrons whims and moods, and of his course his emmense talent, so his team mates are almost always unbalanced and don't know what to expect, making them fade material against this type of opponent.  The  media continually extolls his greatness to the NBA masses, and centers most of its attention on him. The Warriors offensive explosiveness however, is taking a back seat to the LeBron show in the media ,  and little has been mentioned about the  way the Dubs can go from partaking in a close game to almost magically turning a confrontation into a route within a few minutes. I'm starting  to feel the defending NBA champs are feeling a little disrespected ,  and will be out to show the world that this is a team sport and not a one man show.  I'm betting the Golden State Warriors make a statement here this evening in game 3 of this series, and put a pivotal nail in the coffin of  Cavaliers championship hopes tonight right in front of  the Cleveland faithful .

CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season losing by more than 5 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 3-38 L/5 seasons with the combined average margin of defeat coming by 8.5 ppg which solidifies my thoughts on whether the Warriors can cover.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are a long term good bet going 155-86 for a 64% conversion rate dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - Golden St. leads 1-0

Both sides actually played decent defense in game 1 in an intense affair, where LeBron James stood tall as the Cavaliers top scorer and two way threat. The Cavs played well and still lost, so now I'm expecting the Cavs to take a no prisoners nothing to lose attitude and go balls to the walls in an all out  attack mode here ere in game 2 .  I'm also  betting defense takes a  back seat and instead an all out offensive explosion based on a fast transitional game to be the this agenda. Note: Cleveland  has gone OVER 6 straight times as a underdog off a game as a pup where  Lebron James was the high scorer, eclipsing the number by an average of 18 ppg with the total combined score clicking at 239+ ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors  have gone over 8 straight times by more than 14 ppg with more than one day of rest off a 10 plus point victory  as   home chalk when facing a team they have beaten at least two straight times.

CLEVELAND is 30-17 OVER   off a road loss over the last couple of  seasons with a combined average score of 221 ppg getting scored.CLEVELAND is 17-8 OVER   after allowing 115 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 60-24 OVER  L/21 years for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest are 26-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1


This series very much favors the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs have shown a lot of weaknesses in these play offs, and the Warriors with a championship now clearly in sight will come at the Cavaliers with a take no prisoners attitude . The biggest weakness for the Cavaliers has been their defense this season, and I'm expecting we see the Dubs No.1 ranked offense to really show us how explosive they are here tonight. Note: Cleveland is ranked 29th in the NBA Defensive effecnicy rating ( 111.9) .

The Cavaliers no. 5 ranked offense (110.9 ppg) behind LeBron James will have no choice but to answer back or be blown off the court in humiliating fashion, which I'm betting will contribute to this combined score easily eclipsing this total.

Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 NBA Championship games.Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 NBA Championship games.

The Cavs have gone over 8 straight times as a 7+ point dog with two-plus days rest when facing a side that beat them two straight times, going over by an average of more than 15 ppg. The Warriors have gone OVER in 6 straight times by an average of 16.5 ppg with more than one day of rest off a road victory in a road game facing an opponent averaging fewer than four blocks per game.

CLEVELAND is 31-14 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220+ ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATEs L/69 home games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points have seen a combined average score of 222.7 ppg scored. Five of the L/6 times these teams have met have seen this Totals number eclipsed.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND/GOLDEN STATE ) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series 28--8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 219.4 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

Game 7 - Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets (Tied 3-3)

Since this series started I have stated that it would be won by the best defense, and not the explosive offenses these teams have exhibited all season long. For the most part both teams have done a tremendous job of slowing each other down and the games have consistently stayed on the low side of the total and I'm betting nothing changes tonight. It must be noted that Golden State have only played two tilts all season in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and they came during this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets have played only five contests this season where they have had fewer than 14 assists. Three of the five have happened during this series. These teams tell a story about the consistency of both these under rated defenses.

The Rockets have gone under 13 straight times at home off a game as a underdog going against an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game staying under by almost 18 ppg. The Warriors have gone under 7 straight times with less than five days rest after a game in which they had three-plus players with twenty-plus points going under by an average of 13.7 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Conference Finals games.Under is 16-5 in Rockets last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 35-16 in Rockets last 51 vs. Western Conference.Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Under is 5-1 in Warriors' last 6 road games.
Under is 16-5 in Rockets' last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Conference Finals games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 92-49 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more are 83-46 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I'm betting this deciding game 7 will be an all out nasty physical affair that stays on the low side of the number. Boston will be out to pressure James and with Love out with an injury  concentrate on making the super stars life miserable.  In this series, James has averaged 39 points per game at home, 27.7 per in the three games in Boston, which is more than 11 ppg less. .Cleveland's veteran core has struggled with their offensive game in Boston and the defense I expect to be ready to compete in what should be an all out hard-core defensive tit for tat punchem out  battle.  note: BOSTON is 12-3 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season with the average combined score of 195.3 ppg scored. The Celtics have also gone UNDER 8 straight times, when the line is within 3 of pick off a defeat as an away dog when going against  an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game, staying under by more than 20 ppg.

Also the Celtics  have  gone under 8 straight times by more than 14 points  off a game as a underdog in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws .Meanwhile,  Cleveland has gone under 9 straight times as a pup off a win as a home chalk  in which their opposition shot under 60% from the free throw line. Shooting badly from the charity stripe is sometimes related to exhaustion issues , which both sides will exhibit here this evening and this will also contribute to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers might expect.

Under is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings here in Boston. Cleveland has gone under in 15 of their 21 after an ATS win which happened in game 6.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU Leads 3-2

This series is becoming intense and defense and not offense I'm betting will win this series. Golden State needs this game badly, or a surprising elimination from the post season will be on tomorrows media agenda. With that said, you can bet the Dubs will come out with all guns blazing, but the Rockets under rated D, will be primed to slow them down. On the other end of the court , Houston 's offense has been sputtering , and James Harden is slumping offensively and Chris Paul is out, so great deal of emphasis for the Rockets will center on their defense. Under the total is my call this evening.

 Golden State has gone under 16 straight times  as a rested favorite of at least five points when they are off a game in which they rebounded 15% or less of their own misses. Houston  has gone UNDER 11 straight times by an average of more than 13 ppg after a game with 8+ lead changes and has stayed under 8 straight times by more than 17.6 ppg with less than two days rest off a home win when they are facing a side that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with the combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined score of  203.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER   in home games in all playoff games since 1996 with t combined average of 205.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 48-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER