Boston is off a 119-113 win vs Cleveland last time out, in a high shooting percentage tilt for the Celtics. Note: BOSTON is 12-23 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Stevens is 5-16 ATS  after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of BOSTON. Meanwhile, Charlotte has won 3 straight , and are more than capable of hanging tough against a Celtics side playing their 3rd straight road game in 5 nights and on tired legs. 

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 78-125 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover (LATE STEAM)

The Jazz have lost two straight both on the road, but still look lie a formidable NBA team, and now on two days rest  will be prepared to bounce back here on home court vs a Philadelphia 76ers group playing their 3rd  road game in 5 nights , Note: Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.

The Jazz are also 12-0 ATS/SU at home off a road game in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field and  are 7-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing with 2 days rest are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Utah Jazz to cover 

According to my power rankings the Toronto Raptors matchup well vs the Sacramento Kings , and with the added home court advantage look like very viable favorites here tonight. 

Torontos SRS: ranks 9th in the NBA ( 4.98) vs Sacramento's 27th ranking ( -7.52). SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Advantage Raptors 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - excellent free throw shooting team (79%or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more  TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 25-2 SU 23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.9 ppg which makes this a via-able ATS situation. 

Toronto Raptors to cover 

Indiana is exhausted as they prepare to play their 3rd game in 4 nights, and are off a 122-120 OT loss in Memphis last night. Tonight playing defence could easily become an issue on tired legs  in a game I have pegged to be a wide open affair vs a Washington side, that is ranked 26th in ppg allowed on  D, and 5th in ppg on offence and 8th in pace. 

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 vs. NBA Central.

Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

WASHINGTON is 30-16 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories since dropping the season opener against their intra-city rival Los Angeles Clippers behind super stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and Im betting will have an above average output offensively today vs a struggling Chicago Bulls team allowing an average of 110.3 ppg. Meanwhile, LAL has been allowing 108 ppg on the road this season, and tonight I look for the chasing Bulls to aggressively open up to keep track on the scoreboard, which will result in combined score that eclipses this total. 

Play OVER 

Milwaukee might be the public darling here but from a matchup perspective Minnesota is being highly under rated.(The Timberwolves will once again be without their star center Towns when they host Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday) But this is a team that plays deeper and more systematically than past versions of the Wolves and can withstand his absence as was evident when they took out the Washington Wizards last time out. With Milwaukee off a hard fought emotional win vs the Raptors last time out, Im betting they are more vulnerable here than the linesmakers and public might anticipate. 

Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Timberwolves are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

NBA Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 71-118 L/23 seasons for a go against  63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 

The Wizards enter this game against the Pistons having lost three straight while giving up an average of 138 points. Washington is ranked 28th in ppg allowed, and 3rd and pace and 7th in offence. The Wizards come at you in run and gun fashion, and essentially force you into opening up. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 21st in ppg allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency, and if they are going to win they have to up their17th ranked pace here tonight in a game I have pegged to fly over the total. 

Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games.Over is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 overall.

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 home games.Over is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 vs. NBA Central.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-2 in Wizards last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 21-7 in Wizards last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-6 in Wizards last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Utah has the best D in the league so far this season ranking No.1 in ppg allowed at 94 ppg, and rank 28th in pace and 27th in ppg scored at 101. Its obvious what their formula for success is and Im betting on nothing changing tonight . Meanwhile, we all know about the Clippers and super star Kawhi Leonard, but Utah can slow down the most potent of teams , and isolate them in transition , which Im betting will be the case again tonight. With that said, Im betting a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Utahs L/9 games dating back to last season, have gone under the total with the combined average score of 196.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA team (UTAH/LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 102-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-44 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jazz are a team that matches up well against a side like the Clippers and already proved it once this season, in a 110-96 victory vs the Clippers on Oct. 30 in Utah. I know Kawhi Leonard was out that night because of load management , but despite of  the super stars huge efforts this season, could find the going tough vs a team that knows how to control pace and muck things up which effects opposition flow. According to SRS equations, the Jazz are the superior team at this point on the season. Utah 6:25 SRS ranked 7th in the league vs Clippers 5.21 SRS, ranked 9th in the league. ( SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.)

Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in L.A..Jazz are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

UTAH is 23-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.( Utah lost a 102-101 decision to the  Sacramento Kings on Nov.1 and now with some rest should be ready to rebound)

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Two teams that are struggling to start their season go head to head tonight .Both  entered Saturday tied for 27th in the NBA in assists per game (19.3). The Sacramento Kings issues have predicated on their lack of scoring consistency from downtown and at the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Knicks the Kings hosts tonight, are ranked 28th in ppg on offence, and 27th slowest in pace, and depend on a hardcore work ethic to try to stay competitive. Both teams current structural inconsistencies make for a rocky flow, and Im betting tonight that will translate into a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total.

The Knicks have gone under in 8 of their L/9 dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored, and have gone under 4 straight times at home, with the with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 15-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 28-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Joel Embiid is expected to miss tonight game for Philadelphia because of suspension, but the way the Sixers are built that wont slow down their offense or pace here this evening. Note: The Sixers are ranked 3rd in PACE this season (107.0). Also PORTLAND in their L/41 games  when the total is 210 to 222 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg go on the board. Full steam ahead here in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PORTLAND) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43%or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 113-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Nets enter this game against the Pistons off a hard fought win vs the Houston Rockets last night. The Nets hosts tonight the Pistons also played last night in a loss, but the difference maker for this matchup comes via home court advantage and slightly fresher legs of the Pistons, vs a Nets team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights.Note: Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are just 66-131 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Dating back 5 seasons, teams like the Brooklyn Nets with a line between 3 to -3 off no rest & won their previous game as a dog by a margin less then 30 pts against an opponent who had 50 or more points in the paint are 0-23 ATS/ SU.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Pelicans are off an upset win last time out vs Denver by a 122-107 count as 4 point home dogs. Note: NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS L/17 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog . The Pelicans have been running a full throttle take no prisoners game plan so far this season, and after that draining effort last time out Im looking for a regressionary effort today in Oklahoma City.

Pelicans are also  0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Meanwhile, the well rested Thunder are off a 102-99 loss last time out to Portland, but have bounced back well in the recent  past positing a  4-0 ATS record  in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days rest.

We also have a interesting NBA trend anomaly attached to this tilt that favors the Thunder: NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor ball handling team - committing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Lakers are full of veteran talent, but  they are a little banged up right now with key cog Anthony Davis at less than 100% with a nagging shoulder injury. Dallas meanwhile, despite of being young is healthy right now and deserve respect on their own home court. 

The Lakers  dating back to last season are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston and the Washington Wizards set a record with 317 combined points in a tilt that was decided by one point as the Rockets snatched  a 159-158 win in that game. Im now expecting some regression on the part of the Rockets, after that energy draining effort. There are also some troubling numbers attached to the Rockets last effort most notably being that they  allowed Washington to shoot 62.6 percent from the floor. Look for Kyrie Irving and company to thrive in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Brooklyn has win and covered 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Rockets are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings

Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.Nets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-23 L/23 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 66-111 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with Brooklyn to cover 

The Milwaukee matchup is the middle game of a set of three in four nights at Orlando. Im betting the Bucks tired legs play an integral part in us getting a cover here tonight with the home dog. 

Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Bucks are 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Orlando

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 11-35 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Cleveland took out the  Chicago Bulls 117-111 this past Wednesday. The win marked Cleveland's third consecutive game with an uptick in its scoring, from 85 in the opener to 110 vs. Indiana then 112 in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks. There is upward offensive momentum at play here tonight in my over call on this tilt.  Meanwhile, Indiana (1-3) concluded a three-game road swing on Wednesday, scoring its first win of the 2019-20 season, 118-108 at the Brooklyn Nets. Both sides have shown slower paces so far this season, but their defensive weaknesses , and current uptrends offensively make this a solid over wager. 

The Cavaliers are 7-2 OVER as a road dog with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that CLEVELAND is 9-1 OVER  in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

San Antonio has been off since beating the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday to improve to 3-0 and are very fresh for this tilt vs the Clippers and should be very ready to press the action vs a LA Clippers side they matchup well against. With a rested Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup they will also be ready to reciprocate in a what Im betting will be a run and gun affair. 

The L/3 meetings here in LA have all eclipsed the total.

LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of those 25 games clicking in at 236.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Jazz according to my own ratings should be -5 favs here against the public leaning Clippers. Hey I know the Clippers have the best player in the league Kawhi Leonard in their their lineup and their currently playing very good hoops, but Utah is no pushover. Utah has the second-lowest opponent expected eFG% in the league and their  defense is tops in the league  allowing just 92 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers are 24th on D under the same parameters. With that said, Im going directly against the public and the Clippers and agreeing with the market forces that suggest Utah has an edge.

Utah is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (UTAH) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 106-61 ATS L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Kyrie Irving is playing at an extremely high level right of the game this season for his new team the  Brooklyn Nets. However, I am expecting a natural letdown regression offensively , and for the Nets nasty defensive play to burden them against a Indiana side  that are capable of busting out of an early season scoring slump. It must be noted that despite of Kyrie Irving circus the Nets needed a late  Irving's  3-pointer  Friday after blowing a 19-point lead. Two days later, the Nets held an eight-point lead with three minutes remaining and gave up a 10-2 run that forced overtime. The 1-2 Nets are down trending and may not be the solid bet the public thinks they are tonight. 

BROOKLYN is 4-14 ATS  in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Indiana is 3-0 SU l/3 visits to Brooklyn. 

NBA team (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 41-16 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

We have a huge talent disparity here in this game featuring Memphis and the LA Lakers and Im betting the rebuilding Grizzlies output will be muted, and their over all game plan will be a more  conservative one , than they have shown so far this season, knowing what they are up against. With that said, Im betting we have a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. Note : It must also be noted that there seems to be a concerted effort from the Lakers to be a all around team this season.

LAL are ranked 3rd in ppg allowed this season, and 20th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace. 

The Lakers are 2-7 L/9 as a home favorite with the average combined score clicking in at 214.2 ppg.

LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 29-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Utah is a defence first team with a blue collar attitude, and Im betting that will be on full display here this evening in Phoenix. Its early in the season but the Jazz are ranked first in defence allowing 90.3 ppg and are ranked 27th on offence, but the tell tale tape shows them methodically operating with a 28th ranked pace, which is in part indicative of their on court  conservative philosophical mindset. Meanwhile, the Suns are ranked 12th in ppg allowed and 14th in pace and should be on tired legs and in a regressionary offensive mode, after taking part in consecutive hard fought back  forth affairs vs Denver and the LA Clippers.Add to that both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and are certainly on tired legs which in turn will also effect the pace and output of this tilt to the low side of the totals number. 

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a straight up win. .Under is 16-5 in Suns last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-2 in Suns last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

PHOENIX is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.5 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 27-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 36-12 UNDER 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz made a season-high 18 3-pointers and tied a franchise record with 13 threes in the first half while routing Sacramento 113-81 on Saturday, in a top tier two way game. Defence remains the mainstay of the Jazz success behind two-time reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and here tonight Im betting their top tier D will be the difference maker as they march to a conclusive win vs a exhausted Suns team that will play their 3rd game in 4 nights and that they matchup well against .Utah has taken the last seven meetings by an average of 24.1 points and one more conclusive win is on tonights agenda. 

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 10-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

After the five-time defending Western Conference champion Warriors were hammered at home by the Clippers 141-122 in the season opener, Golden State coach Steve Kerr said the performance was not "a one-off." Quote:"This is the reality," Kerr said. "There's going to be nights like this this year."End Quote: And the next night like that came at Oklahoma City on Sunday as the Thunder led by as many as 41 points in rolling to a 120-92 victory.

With the league now wanting to take advantage of a great franchise that took great joy and pounding opponents mercilessly over the last few years payback by their opponents is now at hand. 

Both these teams are still without a win this season, but New Orleans according to my projections has an edge here at home laying the short lumber.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 34-3 SU L/23 seasons with the combined average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Kyrie Irving is fitting in well to his new home in Brooklyn  and followed up a top tier  50-point performance in his season debut by highlighting a late surge in the fourth quarter of Brooklyn's 113-109 win versus the New York Knicks on Friday night. According to my early season projections, Irving and the Nets matchup well here vs Memphis and are viable road favorites of 5 points or less.

MEMPHIS is 21-39 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 53-32 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons .

Nets are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Warriors (0-1) and Thunder (0-2) are both still looking for their first wins. Golden State  lost  a 141-122 confrontation to the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma took season-opening losses at Utah and at home against Washington . Both rosters are vastly different from last season, but after watching some of key action from these games, I like the Thunder a little more at this point of the season, and believe they have an edge here on on home court this afternoon. 

The Warriors are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a favorite. Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 28-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Suns will play host to the Clippers on Saturday in their second game without key starter  Ayton, and will miss his point production, but overall, this Im betting helps their defence. Ayton has never been known for his defensive play and is also known as a defensive liability.  Add to that the Suns, played last night and will be on tired legs after they lost l in OT by a 108-107 count in the high altitude of  Denver which in itself is exhausting .  So here in LA this evening, Im looking for a tempered effort from the Suns, against what is an explosive Clippers team. This Im betting leads to a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers expect. Note: HC Williams in 213 career games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Last time out Philadelphia showed their defensive abilities when they limited Boston  to 36.7 percent shooting overall and 26.9 percent from 3-point range, and are more than capable of a shut down performance here vs Detroit on the road . Meanwhile the Motown Pistons, are off dropping their home opener to Atlanta 117-100 as chalk. There was a lack of good defence, and offence in that tilt, and HC Casey was particularly unhappy with the Pistons D, and tonight Im betting he sets out to correct that. QUOTE:"Our defense (Thursday) was porous and you put that along with bad shooting in the second half, that's a bad recipe," coach Dwane Casey said. END QUOTE.

DETROIT is 17-6 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

76ers- Joel Embiid is "?" Saturday vs Detroit ( Ankle )

Pistons -Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

Play on the UNDER 

Butler, Miami's biggest offseason acquisition, missed Wednesday's season-opening win for the birth of his daughter and will miss Saturday's game against the Bucks and as a result  will effectively curtail the Heats offensive output. The Heats L/7 road games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 216 ppg go on the board.

The Heats usual motus operandi is based on playing staunch D which will be in effect here, vs the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Long term historical trend: MIAMI is 563-469 L/1031 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored over a very extensive period of time.MIAMI is 103-74 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

This is the NBAs version of the battle of NY, and it should be a good one, between the revamped NY Knicks and the up trending Brooklyn Nets. With Brooklyn off a heart breaking 127-126 OT loss last time out, Im betting they will be less energetic than the Knicks and easily suffering an emotional letdown. What Im betting here is the Knicks will play with passion and will not go down without a fight and advantageous line.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Both Minnesota and Charlotte are coming off one point victories in their first games of the season.Minnesota won 127-126 in overtime against the Brooklyn Nets in New York while, the Hornets overcame a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Wednesday in a 126-125 victory against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Im betting the Wolves game was more strenuous than the Hornets game, and they will be fresher and ready to compete here on their own home floor as underdogs. Note:MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in the 2 most recent games here and 12-3 SU  L/15 as a host in this series and get my support to cover in this spot play.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Both teams will take the court with revenge motivation: the Clippers on an opponent that ended their season last April; the Warriors on Leonard, who denied Golden State a three-peat while leading the Toronto Raptors to the championship in June. With that said,Im expecting a spirited back and forth game with a boatload full of points going on the board. 

 Over is 7-2 L/9 meetings at Golden State.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 10-1 in Clippers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 6-2 in Clippers last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 road games.Over is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 Thursday games.Over is 14-6 in Clippers last 20 overall.Over is 13-6 in Clippers last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 /WARRIORS (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-13 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Suns HC Williams has implemented a "no-stick" offensive philosophy that asks players to pass, dribble or shoot in five-tenths of a second. Rubio, Booker, Saric, re-signed free agent Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ayton are the expected starters , as he has the type of lineup that can implement his philosophy fully. I know how bad the Suns have been over the last few seasons, but Im betting on them to up trend. Tonight against a Sacramento Kings side, that is just 1-3 in their L/4 visits here Im siding with the Suns to get us the cover. 

Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover 

Im projecting that this big man crew of Philadelphia to really push forward here this Wednesday night in attempt to assert their standing in the East.  I also  expect a take no prisoners type of affair with alot more points going on the board than the linesmakers and public might expect. In the past Boston has been able to slow down Joel Embiid, thanks to the work of Al Horford and Aron Baynes’  , and now that both are gone, Im expecting Embiid to explode offensively and carry his team forward with maximum momentum   The revamped Celtics will have to follow suit and open up, with some offense of their own,  or be blown off the court, which Im betting helps us get over the Number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA/BOSTON) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The public right out of the gate loves the over here in this Battle of LA game  based in part to the concept that  LAL super stars Davis and James will almost single hand-idly eclipse this total all by themselves.(Tongue in cheek) But Im betting the chemistry between these guys is over blown just like this total based on perceptions. Instead Im betting on Lakers sturdy D, to be key. I know the Clippers can also run and gun, but Im betting that wont be the case here tonight as they devise a game plan to slow down Davis and James and the fast break explosiveness of  Alex Caruso and Kuzma, resulting in a more tempered effort by the Clippers in transition. 

Under is 8-3 in Lakers last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Lakers's last 19 games when playing LA Clippers.

Play on the UNDER 

There will be no Zion Williamson (knee injury) in the New Orleans lineup this Tuesday night in Toronto on opening night as the  Raptors begin the defense of their NBA championship. Because of this this we are getting a generous line to bet into with the visiting Pelicans. 

Despite of New Orleans not having Williamson in the lineup on opening night the proverbial cupboard is still not empty as top tier  veterans like Holiday and Favors, Redick still make this team a fairly formidable opponent, and with the key additions of up trending young talent like Ingram, Ball and Hart must not be discounted to be competitive vs a side that lost their key starter Kawhi Leonard to free agency in the off season and have no real individual big stars in their lineup. 

This Pelicans group has alot to prove after their super star Davis left town via trade, and especially now with Williamson down, and Im expecting them to play a big game tonight vs a side that could easily experience a championship hangover. 

Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

 New Orleans is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.

Road team is 23-6-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA Home teams  (TORONTO) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, in non-conference games are just 49-61 SU L/5 seasons for a 44.5% win conversion rate. 

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be intense. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the linesmakers are estimating to be close. 

The Raptors are 2-9-2 UNDER L/11 on the road with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 Thursday games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-3-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less ARE 78-41 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be a up North rumble. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the lines-makers are estimating to be close .

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the seasons are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Warriors uncharacteristically allowed 123 points in  Game 3 of this series vs the Raptors which was just  the fourth time they have allowed 120 points or more in the 2019 playoffs. In the two previous play off campaigns the Warriors allowed more than 120 points just 3 times in total, so Im betting the game 3 anomaly will not be repeated as will as a mean to the regression to the norm for the Raptors offence  after shooting the lights out in game 3 ( 40% from 3 point land, 30+ assists ). With Klay Thompson returning to the floor for game 4, the dynamic of the Dubs defence will return which HC Kerr will key on in a very important game . Also Durant will be out tonight as well, for the Warriors which has diminished their offensive firepower as compared to when he plays, so D will be very important element for Golden State to even this series. When Durant plays the Dubs average 116.5 ppg on offence and when he sits   they average 6.1 ppg less at 110.4 ppg.

In the 48 times Durant as not played because of injury or personal issues , the Total is 30-18  UNDER for a 63% conversion rate for bettors with the   staying under the total by 5.6 ppg.When Durant is not playing and Curry is in the lineup, the under is 26-15 fora 64% conversion rate for bettors   staying under the total by 5.3 ppg. 

Note:The Raptors previous to game 3  were 1-8-2 UNDER  on the road  in the post season with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg scored.

I keep hammering the under in this series, and I could drastically change my mind based on todays results. However, keep in mind  Im not being swayed by a small game 3 sample size. So lets attack the under again.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Toronto Im betting will continue to play scrappy physical ball here on the road, against the run and gun Dubs. They practiced this in both series against the Bucks and the Sixers and nothing will change tonight in Oakland.The Raptors are 1-8-2 UNDER since Apr 03, 2019 on the road with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Golden State's D is very under rated and recently in these play offs held two explosive offences Portland and Houston to 99 and 94 points respectively here at home. More strong stopping capabilities Im betting will be on full display here in game 3.

 .Under is 8-2-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 home games.

Play UNDER 

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Game 2 - NBA Finals

The Raptors who have owned the best half court D in the postseason  did well in game 1 by focusing their attention on Curry and Thompson and with no Durant on the floor the Raptors should continue to be effective slowing down the splash brothers again. Right now the Warriors just don't have enough outlets, and the Dubs HC Kerr know s this , and being the top tier director and  game facilitator he is Im betting the  ball coach will have his  D prepared to play a more guarded transitional game that will help this score stay on the low side of the total. Also it is highly unlikely key Raptors players like Pascal Siakam will score anywhere near what they did in game one, and that the Dinos offensive output is also curtailed in a game that Im betting stays on the low side of the number. 

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Sunday games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

Play UNDER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors enter this game ranked 8th in points per game allowed in the league and 15th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams have a great deal of offensive talent, but both also have some gritty defensive players. During these play offs the Raptors have made teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia look less than fluid thanks to their ability to break the flow of their opponents, and Im sure that same formula will be in place Thursday night.It must also be noted that Golden State despite of their reputation as gunslingers also have the ability to play a top tier brand of D, and that Im betting will also be on display.  With that said, Im expecting a chippy physical affair here in Toronto and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have made the Bucks look bad in the last two meetings on this series. It must be noted that Milwaukee has stayed UNDER 10 straight times with rest when they are off two double-digit ATS losses and the line is  -3 to a pick. Overall  in this series the Bucks and the Raptors have struggled offensively .In game 5 the ugliness of this series was highlighted as  Toronto went 31-of-84 from the field while the Bucks were 38-of-84. The Raptors actually made seven fewer FGs, but they came out on top because they made twelve more charity stripe conversions than the Bucks. Tonight with so much on the line, I expect this to be a very physical game that stays on the low side of the total.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 36-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Wrong or right my perception of the Raptors last win in this series vs the Bucks was an albatross event, and that the Bucks are the superior team in a bounce back situation after an embarrassing 18 point loss. It must be noted that the Bucks  lost just 7 games this season by 10 or more points . In the last  six losses, the Bucks went 6-0 ATS, covering by 12.8 points per game. Also from a league wide perspective teams like Milwaukee coming off a 10 point plus post season loss are 25-11 ATS in the followup game in the Conference Finals. In the last 14 seasons teams that have won at least two straight games entering a playoff game and are in the underdog role in their next game and it is between game 5 and 7 in a playoff series, the team on the two-game-plus winning streak is just 31-48-1 ATS.  

MILWAUKEE is 16-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS  off an upset loss as a road favorite this season. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

The Raptors came out in game 3 of this series in desperation mode, and played like their play off lives depended on it, and still needed double OT to get barely get by the Bucks. After playing an exhausting 7 game series with the Sixers Im betting fatigue will now be in a factor for the Raptors and that they are at a disadvantage in game 4 here in Toronto because of that. Meanwhile, the Bucks are much fresher, and very ready to take advantage of the Dinos . It must be noted that no team in the NBA was better at rebounding of a loss this season than Milwaukee as is evident by going  22-1 SU  with a +15 ppg diff and 19-4 ATS  after a loss this season covering by an average of 7.6 ppg. Milwaukee is  20-6  ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their last game with the average ppg cover diff coming  by 6 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Western Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Raptors looked clumsy and less than fluent offensively in their last game vs the Bucks a OT win , and have actually been less than effective offensively for large portions of these play offs. Im betting that trend will continue tonight. The Raptors over all flow has also effected their opponents like a virus, as has been evident in this series vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the previous series vs the Philadelphia 76ers . Both the Toronto and Milwaukee   converted at less than 40% from the filed in game 3. Note: The Bucks have gone under 10 straight times when coming off a road loss in where they shot less than 40% from the field while  the Raptors  have gone under 7 straight times  in post season play after a game as chalk in which they held their opponent to under 40% shooting from the field. The Raptors are also  0-7 UNDER L/7 in the playoffs with less than two days rest off a home tilt that was tied five-plus times. 

Im expecting a fairly low scoring game here, based on the factors I have pointed out above and on my score projection of this tilt. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

In my betting opinion there is only one way that Portland can possibly steal at least one game in this series, and that is going balls to the walls with all out offensive attack. They have shown their ability to run and gun with the Warriors in the first half of the last two games, before looking fatigued late and eventually capitulating . Now down 3-0 in this series and in desperation mode, Im expecting the Blazers to leave everything on the floor, and to squeeze every last bit of energy they have into this game. This projected  scenario Im betting leads to a high scoring game, that eclipses this total.

PORTLAND is 8-0 OVER  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 237.3 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

I have not been impressed by the way the Raptors have played in the play offs overall especially the Philadelphia series, and the 2nd game of this series when they lost by 22 points. However, there is enough talent and pride with guys like Kawhi Leonard, and hardcore work ethic from key character players like Siakam to produce a top tier effort in desperation mode here at home today. Note: The L/14 seasons home favorites like the Raptors that were defeated their previous game by double digits have gone 117-79-5 ATS in the playoffs.

MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS L/28  off 3 or more consecutive home wins .

Milwaukee is 0-23 ATS as a rested dog when they are off a win as a home favorite in which they shot better than 25% from the arc and are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 1.50.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 53-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

The Bucks, in game 1 of this series showed their rust after a week off, while the Raps showed their fatigue in a  108-100 final on Wednesday. In Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks reved things up  and took a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. Now Im betting on the Raptors and the Bucks coming out here with all guns blazing in a game that Im betting eclipses the total.

 The Bucks are 11-4 OVER L/15 on the road with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored in those 15 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After squandering a gigantic lead last time out vs Golden State in game 2 in this series, I can see the Blazers in a classic emotional letdown situation. When you exert that much energy and play much better than anyone anticipated and still lose, a follow up effort could easily be more muted than many expect here in game 3. I know alot of pundits point out that the Warriors are vulnerable without Durant in the lineup. However,  it must be noted that the Warriors, play well together without Durant on the court, as they are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when he is out of the lineup, covering by more than 14 points per game, with all of the tilts coming on the road. Overall Durant is has been out, of the Warriors line 14 times since he came to Oakland and 5 of those games saw Steph Murray play, and guess what the Dubs were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in those tilts.

Kerr is 11-2 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. 

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-100 L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

 Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

The Raptors starters logged a lot of minutes last time out, in game 1 of this series vs the Bucks  and were previously off a 7 game series with the Sixers . So fatigue factors come into play for the Dinos as was the case in the fourth quarter of the last game where  the Raptors were rolled over by a team that they had lead by DDs at different junctures of this matchup. Contrary to belief it takes more effort and stamina to play strong physical defence than to run and gun and wide open fashion and tonight Im betting the Raptors are forced to open up in transition because of the inability to  defend vs a fresher side . This is the lowest total the books have offered from the 5 games these teams have played this year, and the one with the most value for an OVER wager to cash.

MILWAUKEE in 49 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored.  Toronto in their L/11 after failing to cover the spread in 3 game or more have seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg scored.

Note: The Raptors have gone  6-0 OVER L/6 as a pup with less than two days rest after a loss in which they were ahead by double digits at some point, going over the number by an average of 23.5 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 7-0 OVER L/7 with less than two days rest off a win as chalk after a victory where they were behind by double digits, going over  the Total by an average of 20 ppg.  

NBA   teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 40-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State rolled to  a 116-94 win vs Portland in the first game of this series, and Im betting they are just getting ramped up. Portland had issues converting from the field and despite of  being on tired legs did play more efficient conservative ball like they did against Denver, but the Warriors have just to much firepower, so their efforts were muted . With that said, Im expecting this  Portland  Blazers team to man up here and play more aggressive offensive hoops behind their splash brothers Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum  vs the explosive Dubs in a game Im betting will be much higher scoring than the first game. 

Over is 26-8-1 in Trail Blazers last 36 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 11-4 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up loss.Over is 19-8 in Trail Blazers last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 11-5 in Trail Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

  The Warriors are 8-0 OVER L/8  in  playoff games when they are off a home victory where they held their opposition under their season-to-date shooting percentage average by more than ten percentage points,  going over by an average of +21 ppg.   

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight game are 130-89 OVER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 
   
   
 
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors looked clumsy at best in their game 7 win vs the Philadelphia 76ers, and overall in that series. Overall, I believe both teams in that series, somehow effected the energy flow of each other in a negative way, which resulted in some of the ugliest basketball in this years playoffs. One thing did stand out to me in that above mentioned series, and that is the absolute dominance of Kawhi Leonard, and how he is a  top tier player and game changer at the height of his career . His efforts were key for the Dinos in the play offs so far and nothing will change tonight vs a rested but rusty Milwaukee team that  easily disposed of Boston in their last series victory. Im being careful here not to use any head to head matchup stats from the regular season, as the hoops that we will see tonight, wont be the same kind of hoops we have seen previously. I know the Raptors have a poor game 1 history in the play offs, but they did win game 1 vs Philly, and their still in game shape after a long series with the Sixers, while the inexperienced Bucks, are off a long lay off, and could easily start slow, which Im betting on a entire game basis effects their ability to cover, giving us value with the underdog Raptors. 

NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last ten games are 11-43 .  ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

Portland has really piked up its defensive intensity in these play offs. That was evident vs the Denver Nuggets in this last series. Note: Since late December of 2015, the Denver Nuggets were held to under 37.1% shooting from the field at home in only two games - both were in their playoff series vs Portland. Now the Blazers will go against an explosive Golden State team that they know they wont easily compete against in a run and gun affair, and instead Im betting will focus on a more conservative physical approach here that will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 215.6 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 Conference Finals games
Under is 10-3-1 in Warriors last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

Philadelphia awoke from a 2 game slumber last time out in game 6, and forced a game 7 here in Toronto this Sunday. From the outset of this series I thought these teams were fairly evenly matched, and my thoughts have not changed. With that said, Im now betting we have value on the line getting points with Philadelphia in a game that  has a high probability according to my projections of being hard fought to the very end. 

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 4-15 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 77-58 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with the average margin deficit of those 135 games clicking in at 5 ppg.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I know that play off series when they go deep have a tendency of going under. However all games must  be treated independently of each other. There is just to much offence on the floor here tonight in a game that I have pegged to be closely contested for this total not to breached .

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more this season with a combined average of 239.6 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA in 53 games vs up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

As in all NBA play off games that have gone deep into a series the opposing sides are a bit fatigued and both sides are very accustomed to each others offensive schemes and all the necessary defensive adjustments have been accounted for thus a lower scoring affair is not out of the ordinary. Add that both sides do not want to make mistakes, and conservative hoops is the norm that makes a under wager here a viable investment option. 

The L/14 seasons have seen the under go 97-69 UNDER in game 6 and 7s of play off series.

Under is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 14-5 in Nuggets last 19 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

These teams have had alot of half court games over the last few seasons, but the two games played in Houston in this series, showed some more wide open hoops. With Houston on the verge of elimination Im betting they unload here in a big way and leave everything on the court in aggressive fashion which will force the Warriors to run and gun with their desperate opponents in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

The Rockets  in their L/10 games since Mar 17, 2019 as a home favorite have seen a combined average score of 220.4 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 15-2 OVER in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg going on the score board.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 104-52 OVER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver phenom Nikola Jokic continued  his top tier play with  25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 . The big man is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists and controlling play while hes on the court.  His emergence into the associations list of up and comers and the good energy he creates for his hard working teams mates makes this Denver hard to beat in their current form and they get my backing again tonight to cover this spread. 

PORTLAND is 11-22 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.PORTLAND is 6-17 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

It has become painfully obvious to Sixers backers over the last couple of games that the young men from the City of Brotherly Love,  are having issues dealing with the Raptors  super star Kawhi Leonard who is proving himself as the best player in this series.  Add to that the  sudden emergence of Kyle Lowry , as he finally is showing us he can play well in a play off environment and you have a situation that favors the Raptors to advance to the next round with a win tonight. Note: Leonard has become the fifth player in NBA history to register150 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists through the first four games of a playoff series in NBA history, and Im betting he will be the difference maker in this spot. Note:  Since  the 2014-15, season, home underdogs in game 6  are 0-10 SU, losing by an average of 19.5 ppg. 

Philadelphias Embiid is averaging just 17 points and 7.6 rebounds in the series ( injuries, ailments, exhaustion, and lack of play off experience is key here )

76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 14-44  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

With the way the Sixers are shooting, and their flow has been for the last couple of games Im betting they wont just suddenly come out here and light things up. Add to that when the Sixers star Embiid is off the court his team has been a wreck, and with him playing they have really not been been much better, as its obvious to me hes not 100% as  rumors swirl about his fitness and possible ill health at a very inopportune time. Because the Sixers chemistry looks to be a shambles entering this game I fully expect them to have a muted offensive effort in a game that has a high probability of not eclipsing the number.

Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games.Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 Thursday games.Under is 4-0-1 in Raptors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 overall.Under is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Raptors last 10 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-2-1 in Raptors last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

TORONTO is 24-7 UNDER off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored. 

 Play UNDER (LATE STEAM)

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The opening line on this game was -9.5 which is pretty accurate , and now because of public perceptions about Houstons ability to compete with Golden State a flurry of public money has lowered this line down to value level and Im now all over Golden State elevating their play here tonight in coming out here like their hair is on fire. Note:  NBA playoff teams  like the Rockets that won two straight games vs a one or a two seed to tie the series at two games are 0-8 ATS/SU L/8 times in game five with the average margin defeat coming by 17.4 ppg.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - MIL Leads 3-1

The Celtics are now in desperation mode and must get back to what made their opening game in this series a successful one. In game 1 the Celtics held the Bucks to 90 points and got a win, and since than gotten away from the type of defensive ball that has made them successful over the last few seasons. Tonight Im betting they pay very strict attention to D, knowing that they can not out score the Bucks in a fast paced game and are a big time disadvantage. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers and public might expect. 

BOSTON is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Denver has shown me they are the superior team in this series conflict with Portland thanks in part to a top tier defence, better open court shots, and a young man by the name of Jokic who is averaging 24.5 points per game, 12.5 assists, 9.3 assists and shooting better than 50% from the field, which are to this point the greatest numbers ever put up by a rookie in play off history. The big man logged alot of minutes last time out, but hes well conditioned and young, and more than capable of having another big game here at home in the Mile High City where the Nuggets have played their best hoops this season.

Portland has failed to cover 18 of their L/23 after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under HC Stotts. 

Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Conference Semifinals games.

Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Semifinals games.Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Nuggets are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. NBA Northwest.

Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a home loss are 63-19 L/5 seasons for a 77% SU conversion rate with the average ppg dif clicking in at +6.6 .

NBA Road underdogs (PORTLAND) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 8-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

These teams are pretty evenly matched according to my head to head power rankings . I know Joel Embiid looked horrible in the final half of the last quarter, and possibly single handily handed the Raptors the win in game 4 of this series , with ugly charity stripe shooting, turnovers, and very nervous and overall big man clumsiness, and his lack of being an experienced closer . Despite of all this he is very talented and being on the road should help him be more balanced. With that said,  Im betting the young man comes out here and adjusts , with a much better effort and leads his team to a cover.

Raptors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Semifinals games. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdogs are 41-22 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate .

Play on the 76ers to cover 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

In game 3 of this series I expected a fairly high scoring game , and it went into OT, and we cashed on the OVER. I saw a tendency towards a faster paced set in game 2, which led me to my assessment,  but now Im expecting a more conservative approach here from both teams, and a half court game which is the norm when these teams go head to head over the last few seasons. Remember both teams saw key players play an extreme amount of minutes ( Harden) and now a fatigue factor must be considered.    Houston is and 0-6 UNDER by an average of more than 14 points  as a favorite in the playoffs after a game with eight-plus lead changes while the Warriors are 0-8  UNDER L/8 staying below the number by more than an average 13 ppg as a road pup with less than two days rest off a road loss in which there were eight-plus lead changes. 

GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 215.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 77-37 UNDER L5 seasons for 68%conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

 .

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

Milwaukee has imposed their offensive will on the Celtics in back to back games in this series, scoring 123 points in both tilts (wins), and  now Im betting nothing changes tonight as they hit or eclipse that number, again with Boston having no choice but to open up with their own capable offence and also have a substantial output performance. 

The Bucks are 6-0 L/6 OVER on the road eclipsing the Total by more than 18 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 244.2 ppg.

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER in home games in the second round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER in road games versus top tier offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.3 ppg. 

Over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 road games.Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games following a straight up win.Over is 24-8 in Bucks last 32 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 26-9 in Bucks last 35 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 11-4 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up loss.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings here in Boston. 

Play OVER 

The Celtics have to come out of their defensive minded shell and compete with the Bucks, who just refuse to slow down. It's not like the Celtics don't have the fire power or determination to compete, and tonight I expect some adjustments that make them more aggressive offensively. Look for Kyrie Irving to come out of a 2 game shooting funk here and really put forward a top tier effort. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 19-79 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The last time these teams played they went into extended OT, and now, so many in the public are expecting a muted offensive effort here today because of fatigue factor. But now with all the value sucked out of the total in downward fashion, Im now betting the OVER is a value wager and a game that should see both teams eclipse the 105+ plateau based on my own projections. Note:DENVER is 33-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 44-10 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 245.3 ppg scored.

The Nuggets are 6-0 OVER (18.83 ppg) since Apr 07, 2019 as a road dog with a combined score of 232.5 ppg scored.

DENVER is 10-1 OVER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Im betting the Raptors are in trouble without the injured Siakam in the lineup here today in Philadelphia, especially in transition where he is one of the best in the league. It must be noted that Toronto has decreased its FG% conversion rare  by 4.7% margin with Siakam not playing . When Siakam is on the bench during  the these playoffs, the Raps are recording an Offensive Rating of 94.2 and an eFG% of 42.9%; they’ve been at 109.7 and 55.2% with him on the floor. The Raptors bench is weak, and volatile  and with the way Lowry continues to struggle, and the Dinos ultra dependence  Kawhi Leonard for offence, things just don't look good for them despite of being desperate for a win. 

During the L/5 play of seasons,sides that were defeated in  their previous game by 10 ppg or more and then are underdogs in their next playoff tilt have really let their betting backers down going  45-76-1 for a go  against 61% conversion rate on the spread .

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 7-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

Golden State are still the odds on favs to win the NBA championship, and rightly so. I know Houston is one of the few teams that matchup well against the Warriors, but the Dubs are still the superior side, and are a dangerous road dog, making them my choice here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. Lots of value at this line.

Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS  after allowing 115 points or more this season which was the case in the game 2 loss.

Play on Golden State to cover

These teams have a history of playing alot of half court games that have gone under the total. However, I noticed an interesting trend of faster paced basketball starting unfold in game 2 in Oakland as the combined score clicked in at 224 points. The Rockets for the most part were expected to  wanted these games to be slower paced, while  the Warriors want to run. Now here in Houston Im expecting the Rockets to be more aggressive and to push the action, and for the Warriors to have no problems reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

After a top tier performance in game 1 the Nuggets then looked fatigued in game 2 of this series vs the Blazers. Do I think 2 days rest, is enough for the the young men from Denver to get back the form they had against the Spurs and then in the first tilt of this series? Yes, I do and suggest we take the points. Note: Denver really struggled from beyond the arc in game 2  , converting on just 6 of 29 shots for a 20.7% conversion rate. It not all bad however, from a ATS perspective as teams over the L/14 seasons, who hit 21% or less of their down town attempts, were positive money earners cashing at 101-77-4 ATS clip in their follow up game.

PORTLAND is 6-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
Nuggets are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denvers success has been predicated on their ability to play top tier defence, as is evident by their 6th overall ppg D, and their 20th ranked offensive output, which includes, a 27th ranked pace. Here on the road Im betting on a very conservative attack set of schemes from Denver, and a physical type approach that will slow down the run and gun Blazers which Im betting results in a much lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect.

DENVER is 15-5 UNDER  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season which was the case in game 2 of this series ( 187 total point output in a 97-90 loss)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The teams split games in Boston during the regular season, with the Celtics winning 117-113 in November and the Bucks prevailing 120-107 in December. But since the beginning of this season the Bucks have morphed into a power house in this league and must be respected here as road underdogs.  The Bucks started this series very slowly, but boy did they ever pick things up last time out with a dominating 123-102 victory, and Im betting they continue to surge here on the road where they have covered their L/4 as visitors overall. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season and are fade material here. I just cant get over the fact of how the Celtics struggled for long periods of time this season, and how they have been bad bets at home of late, failing to cover 8 of their L/10 at home and 10 of their L/14 as home chalk. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The 76ers and the Raptors spilt the first two games of this series, in Toronto , but I feel the Raptors are better and deeper team, and have an edge here tonight in Philadelphia. Im not the only one who feels like this as is evident by the market shift and overall smart money that has steamed in on this  since the line was posted. 

TORONTO is 32-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TORONTO is 33-17 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

In the last 14 seasons teams that cashed an underdog in their last game, like the Sixers, are long term bad bets as is evident by going  176-208-8 ATS including 80-102-2 ATS when those same  sides play at hosts in their next tilt.

The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS after a SU win as an underdog, failing to cover by 5.9 points per game and this season after a SU win , the 76ers are a bankroll  depleting 22-33 ATS for their backers for a go against 60% conversion rate for opposing bettors. 

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Raptors are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Atlantic.

76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0

The Nuggets key to success this season, and what has gotten them this far is their defence. The Nuggets offensive output is ranked 20th in the league the defence ranked 6th in ppg allowed and  they own the 27th ranked pace.  I know Portland can light things up in a hurry, but Denver is built to slow teams like this down, and here in the thin air in the Mile High City are better suited for physical action which can be exhausting, and also directly effect the total combined score out come to the low side. 

Under is 13-4 in Nuggets last 17 home games.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 18-7 in Nuggets last 25 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0  

Denver after a long series against San Antonio kept their momentum alive in game 1 of this series vs Portland with a win. However, this Nuggets team must be tired and their fatigue could easily be a factor tonight against a motivated opponent that needs a win here to gain a split in this series. These teams are just to evenly matched from alot of perspectives that make me feel confident about taking points here. 

DENVER is 12-27 ATS  after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.Trail Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Trail Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.Trail Blazers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

Nuggets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Rockets are one of the few teams in the NBA that matchup well against the Warriors.The Dubs squeezed past Houston in game 1 , but game 2 Im betting will see the Rockets be in a position to pull off an upset and more importantly cover the number for the 2nd straight time. Note: Golden State has failed to cover 11 of their L/18 ATS this season in that next home game, after a win  failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game

Golden St is 0-8 ATS L/8 at home off a tilt in which Steph Curry was not their high scorer,(which was the case in game 1) falling to over by an average of 19.38 ppg.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics came in and upset the Bucks in game 1 of this series. It was in some ways surprising . In the past in the play offs the the Celtics were just 12-17 ATS as dog in their L/30 games as compared to being 19-3 ATS as a post season favorite. Both were rested for game 1 and both look similar to each other in some ways, but Im betting the difference maker in game 2 will be the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season and is  18-4 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

On Sunday, the Celtics opened the series by cruising to a 112-90 victory, mostly because of how they defended Antetokounmpo Im betting they wont be able to keep the Greek Freak down in two games in a row, in a game Im betting will be played faster and the Bucks chosen pace.  The Bucks own the no.1 offence and the 2nd fast pace in the league and they will be ready to run and gun tonight. The Celtics will be forced into responding with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blow off the court. This will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 30-9 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - TOR Leads 1-0

The first game of this series between the Raptors and their guests the 76ers was played at a very fast pace,  but as  it became obvious in the 4th quarter that the Sixers had no chance of winning the game slowed down to a crawl and both teams combined for  just 30 points in the final end. In game one of this series the Raptors were in full flight with fast breaks the norm, while Philadelphia seems tentative and sat back for the most part . This time around I expect the Sixers to come out here flying , and for the Raptors to easily reciprocate in a game I have pegged to bounce over the total. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 38-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

My own projections and matchup stats suggest the Rockets matchup better than most teams in the west vs the defending NBA champion Dubs. Including the regular season and playoffs meetings, the Rockets are 8-6 SU against the Warriors over the last couple of seasons. After coming close to knocking off the champs in last year's Conference Finals, the Rockets will get their shot at redemption and will be primed to perform.

HOUSTON is 15-6 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The last time these teams played back in February the Bucks came out of that game with a 98-97 win, here in Milwaukee.  This Sunday afternoon Im expecting another hard fought game, in a tilt between combatants that know each other very well.  The Bucks have won 5 of the L/7 here straight up but the Celtics have cashed ATS in 5 of those games and Im recommending we take the points again in this spot.  

Im betting on the Celtics to implement small ball game plan here with Horford vs Lopez at the center of the attention  which will be key to aggravating the Bucks flow. Also with Malcolm Brogdon out for Milwaukee there is definitely room here and value with getting points with the Celtics. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-24 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 19-8 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  against Central division opponents this season. 

Play on Boston to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 

I just don't like the flow the Spurs at this point of the season. The Spurs  shooting on the whole looks horrendous for the most part and Im also not impressed with their rebounding. The Spurs have not played well away from home all season long, garnering just 17 wins in 44 games, and have already lost 2 of the 3 games here in the Mile High City in this series. After watching the Spurs flail away in the first half of the last game before their desperation and home town fans buoyed them to a win in game 6 , with a 2nd half surge, it became obvious to me the more talented team behind  key technical players like  Nikola Jokic make this young Denver team a bad matchup for the Spurs. With that said, Im backing the Nuggets to deliver the cash on a cover here in game 7 and advance. 

DENVER is 12-4 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.DENVER is 25-16 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS  after scoring 115 points or more this season.SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

Spurs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The inexperienced  Nuggets must be a little nervous here as they play a game 7, and could easily start conservatively as they make sure not to make mistakes. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off a big time offensive performance and conversion rate, and Im betting they naturally regress here today. That combination Im betting  should help keep this game on the low side of the total. Note: DENVER is 38-17 UNDER L/55 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 197.2 ppg. 

Popovich is 33-19 UNDER in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average score 189 .4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

There is a huge amount of offensive talent on the court here today for both teams. The Raptors average 114.4 ppg, while the Sixers have averaged 115.2 ppg. Im betting both teams come at each other and for this game 1 to feature some offensive fireworks. 

Raptors: 119.0 ORtg | 58.9% eFG | 92.9 DRtg | 43.8% eFG allowed

76ers: 123.3 ORtg | 57.7% eFG | 101.1 DRtg | 46.3% eFG allowed.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 36-10 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

The Warriors are the defending NBA champs and have a core of veteran players that know how to win big games and championships. I know the Warriors have looked lazy as they took the Clippers for granted especially in game 5. But  now wide awake and not wanting a game 7 look for this super star  Dubs team to shine through and get the win and more importantly as far as we are concerned the cover . The key and difference maker int his game  Im betting comes behind Greens defensive prowess around the rim. Golden State has won 7 of their L/8 visits to the Staples Center vs the Clippers and get the nod again. This is the biggest spread put on a NBA road play off game  in at least 14 seasons, but the Warriors despite of showing chinks in their armour are still capable of covering this number , and the linesmakers and smart money know it. 

In the last 14 seasons, double-digit underdogs in the NBA playoffs are  10-107 straight up. 

 GOLDEN STATE is 29-13 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. 

Play on Golden St to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

I betting the Clippers will be a little fatigued here tonight, as they have played extremely hard in this series , and after going off in their last game a regression is expected by me, vs an under rated Golden State defence. That equals out to what I project will be a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. In the last 14 seasons , the under is 96-66 UNDER in Game 6 and 7s , for a almost 60% conversion rate for bettors.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/23 games after allowing 120 points or more this season have seen a combined average score of 223.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER  in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Rivers is 14-4 UNDER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a above average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 68-30 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play  UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver looked good last time out, but this Spurs team has for some reason, struggled on the road this season, so I was not completely surprised  when they lost the key game 5 in the Mile High City.  The Spurs are 33-10 SU home this season and have an edge here on their own floor against almost anyone in this league. When the going gets tough having a guy like Popvich in your corner is a good thing . Note: The Spurs behind Popovich are bankroll expanding 30-17-2 ATS in Games 5-7. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-5 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 

 This series is getting more physical, and both sides are figuring the other sides schemes out. Last time out we saw a lower scoring affair, and Im betting nothing changes here tonight, especially considering the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday.

In the last 14 seasons , betting the under in Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 96-65 UNDER  for a just under 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-57 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down.  In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and  in game 4  the Rockets were held  to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint  while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been  coming in this tilt. I like our  edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives.

D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

The Thunder showed  flashes of brilliance earlier this season, and even before the play offs started I looked at them as a possible dark horse contender. But in never ending chase for value and a readjustment on my estimated market price attached to them, I changed my opinion. The Thunder continue to struggle with their shooting , and they just dont look like they have an answer for McCollum and and Lillard and with Paul George struggling with nagging injuries and his  lack flow for long periods of time, it very much looks like their party is over. I know the public loves the Thunder, but there comes a time when illusion transgresses back into reality. 

PORTLAND is 11-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-15 ATS  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less  TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 138-37 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a point differential of 7.9 ppg clicking in! 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 55-12 L/22 seasons for 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 8.8 ppg whihc qualifies as value on this spread. 

Portland to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Now that this series is tied 2-2 Im betting we start to see this series turn much more physical as a proverbial dog fight unfolds. I know Denver has shown some offensive flow in the last few games, but they have been hitting 3s at a high rate, but only converting around the rim at a 47.8% clip and a regression must be expected according to my projections. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only taken shots from beyond the arc in 18.3 % of their possessions and continually look to push the ball inside which indicates a concerted effort to dig in play physical ball and do their offensive work around the rim. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers and public might expect.

Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 vs. Western Conference.

Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. .Under is 11-3 in Nuggets last 14 home games.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

 Since game 2 of this series the Raptors have absolutely dominated and dismantled the young Magic and Im betting nothing changes tonight in TO. The Raptors are cleaning the glass at a high rate, not allowing open 3s and just plain old showing us all how dangerous and deep they are. This matchup reminds me alot of the  lopsided Milwaukee /Detroit series . Note: The Raptors Net Rating +23.7 which is almost on par with the Bucks. 

TORONTO is 9-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg.

In the L/14 seasons, chalk  favored by double-digits in  Game 5 are 25-1 SU, with the average wining point diff clicking in at 14.4 points per game

Play on Toronto to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

James Harden shot 3-of-20 (15%) from the field in the Rockets’ Game 3 victory in Utah and now Im expecting a more efficient outing from the super star and his team as a whole. I know Utah is a defense first team, and really protect the rim well with Gobert , but because of this the  Rockets will have space to shoot 3s, because when the vacuum cleaner as I like to call him, is pulled out of the paint he's out of his comfort zone. With elimination on board for the Rockets Im expecting they become aggressive, and this in turn will force the Jazz to open up which in turn will make for a higher scoring game than the public leaning linesmakers are expecting.  

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 79-33 OVER  L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

The Jazz did everything possible to beat the Rockets last time out and they still lost. Now completely letdown the Jazz have to face a group that gives them alot of matchup difficulties and  their just not built to handle them. That's  why Im betting on a sweep here and for the Rockets to end this tonight. Note: Favorites with a  3-0 series lead in Game 4 are 24-17-1 ATS last 14 seasons.

Play on the Rockets to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 3-0

The Pistons haven't shown enough of a defensive presence against a  Bucks team that averaged a league-high 118.1 points a game and their obviously not capable  enough of stopping them again tonight. With Milwaukee on the verge of their first play off round series win in 18 seasons you can bet they will be ready to end this tonight in full beatdown mode. The Pistons will have no choice but to open up and try to keep pace which will make for a total score that eclipses this number. 

Budenholzer in his L/8  road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average score of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

The first two games of this series stayed well below the Total, and in game 3 the total was barely eclipsed very late in the game. Im betting on another hard fought tilt between a Portland side struggling to convert consistently right now, and Oklahoma city team that has underachieved and shot below average all season long. With that said, Im recommending we hit the under again here in game 4. 

Under is 25-11-2 in the last 38 meetings in Oklahoma City.

PORTLAND is 37-17 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 211.9 ppg. 

Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Thunder last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 220.5 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER  off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

Thanks to Westbrooks great shooting in game 3 of this series, the Thunder muscled past the Blazers, as they played like their hair was on fire and also as a team shot at 50% with their treys. Now in a sort of a letdown scenario I expect Westbrook who is off one of his worst shooting years  from beyond the arc (29.3%)  to regress here, and to take his team with him .  Im betting on Damian Lillard to stand tall here for the Blazers and get us the cover.

Thunder are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.

PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS  on Sunday games this season. 

Play on Portland to cover