Super star Westbrook's Washington Wizards are coming off their finest outing of the young season and now I am going to ride that momentum into this game . The Wizards are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but for a while now they have had one of the best conditioning programs in the league, and will be ready to run and gun again here tonight vs a uneven Brooklyn side that are poster boys for inconsistency which features the inability to cover in 4 straight tilts. WASHINGTON is 25-11 ATS   when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The  Raptors at this point in the season no longer look like Eastern Conference contenders and  are  just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, New Orleans has looked uneven in its tilts, but did look like they matchup well vs the Raptors in their opening game winning by a 113-99 count. In the rematch Im betting the Pelicans once again have an edge, as home underdogs in a spot they could easily win SU.  Van Gundy is 60-35 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 54-13 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 



Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will look for their third consecutive victory when they host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday I just dont think it will come that easily here vs a Charlotte tonight. I know the Hornets lost last night as chalk , but after watching some tape of the game, its obvious they did not exert much energy and will have plenty left in the tank for this tilt. Quote: Despite the loss, head coach James Borrego has been pleased with the team's progress."For us it's just about building and growing," Borrego said. "We didn't have the best training camp. There's a lot of factors there, but I believe now we have found our footing." Enf Quote: I agree with the HCs assessments and they get my under rated factor here in a game based on brand reputation. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 40-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

NBA Road teams (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 33-11 ATS l/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

My projections estimate that the Pacers will score 112+ points and will force the Knciks to chase . Note: INDIANA is 31-6 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight game are 27-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

 Sacramento enters this game having covered 5 of their L/6 tilts dating back to last season, and continue to uptrend in my power rankings, while Houston is playing at the proverbial opposite end of the spectrum as far as bettors are concerned failing to cover in 6 of their L/7 overall and are 0-4 ATS L/4 at home in are fade material here in this spot against a weak favorite line. Rockets new HC  Silas acknowledged that the Rockets are a "work in progress" on defense and that Im betting will be their downfall today. 

SACRAMENTO is 19-9 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons  is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 25-14 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  SACRAMENTO is 31-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons.  SACRAMENTO is 46-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 118-154 ATS  in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

My projections make this total closer ot 229 thus giving us value with an under wager.


 HOUSTON is 16-3 UNDER  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 33-17 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (HOUSTON) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 56-23 UNDER  L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 105-58 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on UNDER 

Utah played last night in a loss to the Suns, and looked lifeless. Now on tired legs dealing with a Clippers die that is expected to have their super star Kawhi Leonard in the lineup tonight the Jazz are once again in trouble . Note: Leonard owns a  +25.8 efficiency differential when on court vs. off this season. LA CLIPPERS are 25-12 ATS  as a road favorite over the last 3 season. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Hornets have surprised me with some nice wins vs Nets and Mavericks and now have my attention going into tilt vs a banged up and disorganized looking Memphis side that will be without Grayson and Allen.CHARLOTTE is 16-6 ATS  when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.

The Heat have beaten Dallas six straight times in the battle between these rivals , but Im betting that this will come to an abrupt end here today. The Heat are off a grueling two game set vs the Bucks last time out, and may not have the energy needed to out run a side that will be very motivated after an embarrassing effort last time out vs Charlotte.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 24-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. 

Play on Dallas to win 

I have been impressed with the Phoinex Suns and have no problem supporting them here vs a Utah  side they matchup well against. Phoenix, has wins over Dallas, Sacramento and New Orleans this season and I wont be surprised if they clip the Jazz here tonight and in the process get the cover. PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Suns to cover 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG), after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 44-18 OVER L/24 seasons  for an 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

 The Pelicans enter this tilt vs Oklahoma city ranked  last in pace in the league and , 29th in offense and have seen their first 4 games of the season stay under the set total . Meanwhile,  OKC when at full strength like they are expected to be tonight are a solid defensive side that must be respected. Under is 7-1 in Pelicans last 8 games as a favorite.Under is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 overall . Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Under is 50-23-1 in Thunder last 74 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER 

The Raptors have started poorly losing 3 straight, but now Im betting on them coming out like their hair is on fire and taking down a Knicks side that hey have beaten  eight consecutive  times. The Knicks continue to deal with injuries. Obi Toppin (calf), Austin Rivers (groin), Immanuel Quickley (hip), Dennis Smith Jr. (quad) and Alec Burks (ankle) were inactive on Tuesday which im betting effects the teams flow in this spot. TORONTO is 12-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons and  TORONTO  14-4 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Since Embiid returned to the court for the 76ers they have looked rejuvenated and on a mission. Im going to bet on the Sixers flow and momentum here vs a viable but still over matched Orlando side. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more  shots/game), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 27-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Missing players due to covid from Bulls  give us value with the Wizards. Late Steam. 

Play on Wizards to cover

These two sides just don't push for explosive offensive flow and have shown some conservative style here early this season, especially when attempting shots from downtown ranking bottom six in the league in beyond the arc attempts . Both sides are showing early signs of injury woes, and some key players are hobbled missing in action or less than 100%.

 INDIANA is 27-12 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas after starting their season with two straight losses finally got untracked last time out with a huge DD win vs the LA Clippers, and now Im betting on them carrying that momentum into this tilt vs a Charlotte side that they matchup well against according to my power rankings.

NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less are 26-6 ATS 
L/24 seasons for a  81% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Los Angeles Lakers hit the road for the first time this season when they square off against the Spurs on Thursday night in the first game of back-to-back matchups in San Antonio over a three-day period. The Lakers looked uninterested late in their game vs the Portland Trailblazers last time and lost. Im betting on more of a championship hangover for the Lakers tonight on the road vs a San Antonio Spurs that is uptrending in my power rankings since last season.SAN ANTONIO is 35-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.Vogel is 18-37 ATS  in road games after allowing 115 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

On Tuesday night, the Bucks set an NBA record by sinking 29 3-pointers while crushing the Heat 144-97. Tonight in the rematch it will be difficult for the Bucks to exert the same energy while, the Heat will be primed to step up on defence and be more physical, which will translate Im betting into a lower scoring affair than yesterdays combined  score.   MILWAUKEE is 9-1 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.2 ppg  going on the board. 

  NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more  differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 23-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on UNDER

The two most recents meetings in this series have seen 235 and 246 combined points go on the board and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in this matchup. Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 games as a road favorite. Over is 7-3 in Kings last 10 games as an underdog.

Play OVER 

My totals number projects at 221 thus giving us value on over wager. Orlando owns the 5th fastest pace early here this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City ranks 13th in pace and will be forced into a high energy flow here against a superior side, that can run and push the speed of this game to higher levels. 

ORLANDO is 17-3 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 13-1 OVER  after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 235 ppg going on the board. Over is 6-0-1 in Magic last 7 games as a road favorite.Over is 4-0-1 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 4-0-1 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 13-2-1 in Magic last 16 games as a favorite.Over is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 home games. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play OVER

 The Bucks, now with two losses in their first three games, would love to get back on track against the Heat side that they have huge revenge against for play off ejection embarrasement. I just dont see the Bucks sitting back and trying to make this into a tight play off style game, and instead will be out looking to run and gun in angry fashion, which will turn this tilt into more wide open tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. MIAMI is 22-11 OVER in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.  NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 227-114 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Indiana is a defence first side and nothing will change tonight against top tier opponent Boston.  Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a home underdog. Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Celtics play more conservatively on the road behind a solid D, as is evident by the following trends going  9-3-1 UNDER  in  their  last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 
INDIANA is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.1 ppg going on the baord. 

NBA  team (INDIANA) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 54-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7  or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Washington plays a one way type of game, that is based on all out run and gun basketball with  little or no consideration for strong defensive play. Its all about entertainment in the new NBA and this is the type of hoops the fan base wants to see. Tonight Im expecting offensive fireworks at both ends of the court and for two defenses Chicago and Washington allowing an average of more than 121 and 125  ppg respectively to be left vulnerable again. 

Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games as a road underdog.Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 road games.

WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 245 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 11-2 OVER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Lakers obviously matchup very well against Portland as was evident in the NBA play offs when they grabbed 4 of 5 games. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here with the Lakers as short chalk on home floor. as they enter in top form off two DD blowout wins. Vogel is 10-1 ATS L/11 after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more in all games he has coached .

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 1-24 SU L/24 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at  -9.9 ppg. 

NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year 26-3 L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.1 ppg. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover

Both these sides can really light up the scoreboard when in a groove which Im betting both teams are. The Lakers just scored 138 and 127 points respectively in their L/2 trips to the hardwood, while the run and gun Blazers scored 128 points last time out. My own projections estimate, that this line is closer to 229, making this total high on the value perspective for over wager.  Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 Monday games.Over is 12-3 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog.Over is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games as a road underdog.

Play OVER

According to my projections the young Thunder do have the guns needed to hang with an experienced Utah Jazz side. Thus laying anything short of DDs,is a viable wagering opportunity according to my numbers. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 19-46 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate.

Play on Utah to cover

My projections make this total closer to the 214 mark, thus giviing us value with a under wager .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 UNDER  when the total is 218.5 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  as a road favorite when they lost 2+ straight matchups vs this opponent with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

Play UNDER

Pierce is 27-12 OVER  after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of ATLANTA with a combined average of 135.5 ppg scored. 

The Hawks are 10-0 OVER L/10  at home coming off a road game going over by more than 23 ppg on average. 

Play OVER 

Both sides won their opening games of the season, and according to my projections are evenly matched coming into this holiday battle after Sacramento took the first game of this weekend war of attrition 106-103. This we have value according to my numbers with the underdog Kings. Note:Kings are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Kings are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

These are two play off contenders with tough defenses. The new version of the Pacers after lousy trey numbers last season will try to get going behind the arc more this season, but the Celtics own a strong 3 point D, and nothing is going to come easy from long range for the Pacers tonight. Meanwhile,  the Celtics themselves Im betting struggle for flow vs a physically bigger Pacers side that is well balanced and mean on the inside. Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games.

Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games as an underdog.

INDIANA is 143-110 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996 with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. 

Stevens is 65-45 UNDER off a home loss as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average score of 205.7 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Sixers visit Cavaliers in battle of unbeatens. Defence is key to both sides and nothing will change today. Under is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 10-3 in 76ers last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 games as a road favorite. Under is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 11-5 in 76ers last 16 games as a road favorite.

The Clippers have started 2-0 and off a big DD win last time out while the Mavs are at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum having lost both their games, the last one by a wide margin to the NBA champion Lakers.Note:  .Carlisle is 34-13 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS and Im betting he has his side ready to rebound here today.  Lue is 6-20 ATS  L/26 in home games after scoring 120 points or more in all games he has coached. 

DALLAS is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 42-16 ATS L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Kings posted a dramatic 124-122 overtime win over the host Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, while Phoenix held off the Dallas Mavericks for a 106-102 home win on the same night. What stood out to me was the Suns top tier defensive play and Im betting on more of the same type of hoops in this spot , which favors this score to stay on the low side of the total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 67-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

late steam- under 

Analysis to follow -thank you for your patience

Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Magic are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.


NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - off an upset win as a home underdog, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses are 4-24 L/24 seasons. 

Atlanta plays a one way brand of run and gun basketball, and nothing should change with the full throttle Young leading the way. Meanwhile, Memphis must not be underestimated in their abiility to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this total. ATLANTA is 37-25 OVER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.

Play OVER

Its still early on the season to use pace numbers, but I expect both teams will take part in a high octane type of affair rather than a defensive minded play off type game that they took part in during the recent bubble play off adventure both took part in. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a combined score of 225 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average of 105-60 OVER L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 155-97 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. 

Van Gundy is 187-141 UNDER  in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 198.5 ppg scored. 

Spoelstra is 297-266 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of MIAMI with the average combiend score of this big sample size clicking in at 198 ppg. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year are 53-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting people maybe surprised at how much improvement New Orleans will make defensively this season under Van Gundy. Meanwhile, Miami bases their successes and failures on their ability to play top tier D, and tonight will be not differnet. 

Van Gundy is 187-141 UNDER  in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 198.5 ppg scored. 

Spoelstra is 297-266 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of MIAMI with the average combiend score of this big sample size clicking in at 198 ppg. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year are 53-24 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Thanks to the Denver Nuggets having a tremendous poast season, while showing their reslience and ability to come back time after time, has the market over pricing them here in their return to the court. Hey dont get me wrong the Nuggets are a fine team, but Sacramento after adding a big man defensive stalwart Hassan Whiteside in the offseason are now a side that will not be easily intimadated at both ends of the court. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here with the under reated visitor. Note: the last three meetings in this series were all decided by 7 points or less and a repeat situation Im betting on tonights agenda.  The Kings are 8-2 ATS L/10 as dogs and have covered 19 of their L/26 as road underdogs. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Miami has won the L/3 meetings in this series, and according to my new early seasons projections are once again deservedly a short favorite and my choice to get us the cover.

MIAMI is 23-12 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.


NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year, vs. division opponents are 55-15 L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +5.3 ppg. 

Play on Miami to cover

 Im not buying in this favorite line on the  Lakers . Yes, the champs have beefed up in the off season with the likes of  Gasol, Schröder, Matthews, and Harrell, but here on a neutral court environment  with no fans in attendance  the Clippers must be respected   getting points. You have to remember this is a Clippers team despite of losing steam late in the season, are still a world class hoops group, that owned  the league’s second-best Net Rating (6.3), second best Offensive Efficiency (113.3) and fifth in Defensive Efficiency (106.9). 

The Heat have never for one second stopped working hard, and are now getting more physical as the series progresses . Now with the noose tightening on the Lakers and the Heats confidence surging, Im betting on a absolute war here in game 6 with defense and hard core bone breaking action to take center stage. Look for almost every shot to be contested in a hardcore battle that results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers did not look like they were into the last game at all, while Butler and company came out with their balls to the walls , and essentially embarrassed the Lakers in the work ethic department. LEBron does not like to be made a fool of, and so far in these play offs when LAL has lost (3 times) they have bounced back in a big way and  have won those following tilts by an average of 13 points per game  , and overall each time they have won in these play offs they have seen at least  a14 point margin of victory. Remember the Lakers have done the same thing in the last two series losing 1 game before rolling to convincing efforts.

NBAFavorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 36-5 L/24 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to win 

Eastern Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, FL

Playing without point guard Goran Dragic (plantar fasciitis) and center Bam Adebayo (neck/shoulder strain), two of its three best players Miami looked to be in trouble last time out and with these two key cogs out or at less than 100% again this Heat side is in trouble. The only reason why the Lakers only won buy 10 points last time out , was because the Heat enjoyed a 34-17 free-throw disparity and I can't see that repeating itself here today. 

With the smell of NBA championship in the air for James and Davis, its not a difficult decision for me to back them here again. 

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

At their current paces this game projects off as being a tilt that reaches the 220 point plateau  which gives us an edge on this number to the OVER.  Im betting both sides score more than 108 ppg each. Note: LA LAKERS are 33-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season. MIAMI is 46-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 233.4 ppg. When these teams played earlier this season they combined for 223 points. 

MIAMI is 21-12 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. MIAMI is 20-9 OVER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 226 ppg. M2IAMI is 18-8 OVER  after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.8 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Nothing in this series so far suggests that either teams offense will continue to average less than they have  so far. Anything is possible, but remember we are playing the odds based on the data at hand, which suggests from a projections stand point that both teams will score more than 106 points each in what the lines-makers expect to be a closely contested affair. Boston really pushed against the Heat in the 4th quarter last time, and Im betting knowing that the Heat will want to open up and push the pace to keep the Celtics from setting up in the half court. Advantage OVER. 

 MIAMI is 45-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with the combined average score of 233.3 ppg scored. BOSTON is 34-8 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of  234.1 ppg. 

MIAMI in 18 games  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 223.7 ppg. 

Miami in 18 Atlantic division affairs this season have seen a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 75-40 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

There is blood in the water and the Lakers are the  proverbial sharks . The Lakers very much respect this hard nosed never say die Denver team, and they know they need to step up here and finish them off. Im betting we see the core of this LAL side at their very best and for exhaustion to finally hamper the Nuggets as this will be their 19th play off game this season. Note: Reports on Anthony Davis ankle seem to be positive at this point and he is expected to be good to go. 

DENVER is 4-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are 39-3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8 ppg which qualifies under a spread situation as well. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Miami has not been held to less than 106 points in any of these games vs Boston, and my projections estimate a similar out put here tonight and for Boston in desperation mode to also keep up offensively in more aggressive fashion and let it all hang out as elimination is a real possibility down 3 games to 1.  It must be noted that MIAMI is 44-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with the average combined score clicking in at 233.4 ppg.is 33-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 234.3 ppg scored. Note: The Celtics are averaging  114.6 points per 100 possessions this series, despite of their tentativeness at times.  Miami  has averaged 114.0 points per 100 possessions. 

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 228 ppg going on the board. 

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Lakers played like crap in game 3, emotionless, and with very little heart. Im betting now they have learned their lesson unlike the 'jazz and Clippers and will come out here with a huge effort  and get us the cover vs the Nuggets here tonight. . LA has covered a six-point spread in nine of its 10 playoff wins and gets the nod again. 

LA LAKERS are 20-7 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.DENVER is 4-13 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Celtics are now trending upward and after game 2 it became evident that they are the better side in this series vs the Miami Heat. With Hayward back in the lineup, this game to me looks like a slam dunk.Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

The Lakers have now experienced the effects of a never say die Nuggets side, that gave them a scare last time out. You can bet the Lakers won't let their guard down in game 3, and make sure that they play a start to finish game. You have to remember, that the Nuggets despite of being young have played alot of catchup hoops during these play offs and coming from behind 3-1 in two straight series, while making many come from behind runs. While fans might be  loving the exploits of this underdog group, they maybe underestimating what it does to a teams energy levels, and  will that their exploits will eventually come back and bite them, and thats what I expect to see today. Partial exhaustion, and also in letdown mode after losing with no time left on the clock last time out (105-103), will have the Nuggets come out flatter here than expected. 

 Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Nuggets  came back from being down 3-1 twice in a row and looked wobbly in game 1 , and Im not sure they will be 100% energized here in this spot, but a better more aggressive effort is my bet. With top tier offensive talent and a never say die attitude scoring will be up for Denver after going just 9 for 26 behind the arc in game 1. Meanwhile, The Lakers in game 1 of this series, looked hungry and focused behind Antonio Davis and his 37 point output, and now I will expect  his Future HOF cohort James to pick up the pace in game two after only scoring 15 points and for the Lakers to push the pace. This Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring play off game that eclipses this total. 

Over is 6-2-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a ATS loss.Over is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Over is 11-4-1 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up loss.

Over is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 Conference Finals games.

Over is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

Two second half collapses by the Celtics have put them in a precarious place in this series down 2-0. The Celtics now have to leave everything on the floor today, and push forward in a more aggressive fashion, which Im betting opens this game up a little more, which in turn will help lift this combined score over the number. The first two totals came in at 208 and 209.5, and I feel that thats where they should be today, this giving us value on an over wager. Note:These teams are averaging 231.25 combined points per 100 possessions with a drum banging pace of  91.72, with top tier efficiency.

BOSTON is 7-0 OVER  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average score of 239.6 ppg. 

MIAMI is 12-3 OVER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 229.5 ppg. 

Play OVER

The Nuggets have had an exhausting play offs and are off a hard fought 7 game series vs the Clippers where they made several comebacks , which in themselves were exhausting . Now here against a well rested Lakers  side and most probably in a letdown spot after their huge win in game 7 Im going to fade Denver out of the gate in game 1 and go against recency bias. You can also bet the star veterans of this Lakers side are also wide awake and ready to compete after watching the Nuggets beat up on a Clippers side that was expected to battle them here in the Conference finals. DENVER is 4-13 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Miami really was lights-out efficient in game 1 of this series offensively and now Im betting on a regression and for both these teams to settle into a much slower paced game here in game 2 after the game 1 OT affair. 

Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 

NBA teams where the Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.

 NBA teams with a total of  200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 34-8 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Clippers had a huge DD lead in the 3rd quarter of game 6 of this series, when the Nuggets went on a 17-0 run and than finally over took the Clippers. Shock and awe was the story behind the comeback, and now here we are with the Clippers being favored again. It must be noted that the Nuggets have played a post season tilt every two days for four straight weeks and five of those were elimination games. Man this Nuggets  team has to be tired and with that said  Im taking the better team here the Clippers who maybe actually finally understanding their opponents are not quitters. Kawhi Leonard is the nuclear option here today, and Im betting he takes advantage of  Nuggets exhaustion. 

NBA Favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 49-21 L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate .

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Coming off a 7 game series will see the Celtics  in a letdown spot, and most probably exhausted as well. The rested Heat are no pushovers and must be respected here getting points. Miami won the most recent meeting on Aug. 4 in the bubble and gets my support in game 1. 

Note:Teams like Boston that take Game 7 are 32-45 (41%) straight up in Game 1 of the following series.

MIAMI is 8-1 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

Play on Miami to cover 

In game 5  as has been the case a few times in this series the Clippers have showed their superiority vs the Nuggets, before falling asleep at the proverbial wheel and allowing the Nuggets to mount a comeback. Now knowing the Nuggets will not easily be beaten down, Im expecting Kawhi Leonard and company to come out here with a huge effort and cancel any hopes the Nuggets have of taking this to a game 7. Note: The Nuggets are averaging just 96.3 PPG in their three losses which shows me that when the Clippers are focused the Nuggets are in trouble. Im betting the Clippers will be very focused in this one. You have to remember that the Clippers have won   18 of 20 quarters in this series and a compete start to finish 4 quarter win effort is not out of the question. 

LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less this season with a the average combined margin of victory coming by 23.4 ppg.

DENVER is 4-15 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Clippers to cover

This is do or die for Houston and Im expecting them to leave everything on the floor today in aggressive fashion. Im betting the Rockets force the Lakers to open up and for this combined score to eclipse this total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-2 OVER  after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season with a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LA LAKERS/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 144-68 OVER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Clippers have looked very good in this series and sometimes peculiarly disinterested. They are the superior team, but Denver are no pushovers, and now feeling like they having nothing left to lose and on the verge of elimination, Im betting that they hang here today and make life difficult for the Clippers. I still cant get the 31-14 lead  the Clippers had early in the second quarter of Game 4  when Denver exploded and came back to tie the game. This Nuggets team are not quitters. Take the points. 

Malone is 47-27 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER.

Play on Denver to cover 

This series is getting slower as it progresses as is evident by pace (number of possessions)  as game one registered in  at  97.7 game 2 at 95.3 and game 3 at 89.5. Houston is small ball team, with top tier talent , but  a limited bench and that effects their offensive efficiency in flow when facing    the Lakers big men who are really putting a physical beating on their opponents.  Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

LA LAKERS are 13-2 UNDER vs struggling  rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 216.5 ppg. 

HC D'Antoni is 36-17 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) as the coach of HOUSTON with the combined average score registering at 218.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets have hounded Kawhi Leonard non stop so far in this series and that has effected the Clippers offensive flow and Im expecting more of the same here today in a game I have projected to stay under the total. 

LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER  in non home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 217.1 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 UNDER  in non home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 season with the combined average score clicking in at 218 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 59-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The defending NBA champion Raptors have already shown that they wont go down here without a fight and after being  down 2-0  to the Celtics after two games came storming back to tie the series before an ugly effort in game 5. HC Nick Nurse knows how to make adjustments and after that last humiliation, you bet he will have his team ready to compete. 

Raptors are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 point. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

This series has been fairly slow paced , with 97 and 95 possessions in Games 1 and 2 . Alot of turnovers have created alot of fast breaks points  but that Im betting  will regress , and what will remain is a more conservative type of affair here in game 3. 

HOUSTON is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 14-6 UNDER against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average of 221 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-19 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

My projections estimate that both these teams will score +108 points here today based on pace and shooting algorithms. . It must be noted that MILWAUKEE is 35-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 240 ppg going on the board, while MIAMI is 41-2 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 234 ppg scored. 

MIAMI in 37 games with  the total of 210 to 219.5 this season have seen a combined average of 219.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - in the second round of the playoffs are 112-64 OVER L/24 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Celtics had the leagues 4th most efficient offense this season, but last time out they were in a horrendous down slope with their shooting going 7/35 from downtown, for a ugly 20% conversion rate. I will give Torontos HC Nick Nurse alot of respect for his teams turnaround in this series, but Im still betting the Celtics will bounce back here after that down effort last time out. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) this season.  BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA  Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 172-63 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Miami is on the verge of moving on vs a Bucks side that refuses to change their non opera-table  game plan. Down 3-0 their stubbornness will be the proverbial death of the Bucks here today.  Bet on the Miami Heat moving on and covering. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS  in all playoff games this season.

MILWAUKEE is 1-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season

Giannis Antetokounmpo is downgraded to "?" Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he plays he will be less than 100%. 

Play on Miami to cover

There is blood in the water, and the Celtics are the proverbial sharks here today. With no Kawhi Leonard in the lineup the defending champion Raptors are in a trouble against a very hungry opponent, that I personally believe is more talented. BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%) this season and get the nod here again.BOSTON is 10-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or less this season.BOSTON is 19-3 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Rockets had the best defensive rating in the bubble at 101.7, and played decent defence against Oklahoma City. Now while expecting some small ball from the Rockets, I still believe the Lakers will return fire in transition a more tempered approach in an effort to take the Rockets off their game, which in turn will result in a lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers might expect. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.HOUSTON is 27-10 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) over the last 3 seasons with combined average 218.2 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 33-17 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. D'Antoni is 21-9 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of HOUSTON with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. 

Eastern Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

This may not be do or die for Milwaukee, but they pretty well know as a team that if they lose again today, that their season for all intensive means is over. So with that said, Im betting on team Giannis and his gigantic ego to come out here in desperation mode and to get us a victory and more importantly the cover. 

MILWAUKEE is 25-11 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Friday nights are 52-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Denver after taking part in a grueling 7 game series, are now on tired legs coming into this series vs a fresh Clippers team that will be motivated to get a win and get the ball rolling on moving on to the NBA finals. Im betting on the fresher more talented and experienced side to get the job done here in convincing fashion. 

DENVER is 7-19 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 80 points or less are 24-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.4 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 5-47 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.2 ppg. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Miami Heat took game one of their  Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Milwaukee Bucks with 115-104 win on Monday night, thanks in part to lousy charity stripe shooting (14-26) which was an anomaly. Milwaukee has not really faced much adversity in the play offs so far, but now they must adjust to top tier competition, and Im betting they will do just that here today behind the  big ego of Giannis. The Heat work at a lower pace , and like the half court game which does not always suit the Bucks, but HC Budenholzer can and will speed this tilt up with line adjustments, and force Miami to run with them, which in turn will get the Bucks to the promised land in game 2. 

MIAMI is 11-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.MIAMI is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Budenholzer is 45-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Jamal Murray’s has been the catalyst for the sudden explosiveness of the Nuggets offence and that  has changed the complexion of this series, which now bodes well for  Denver  in this deciding Game 7 tilt. I also like the bench depth that the Nuggets have with Jokic and Mitchell and give them a strong chance at advancing. 

UTAH is 5-13 ATS vs. division opponents this season. UTAH is 5-13 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. Malone is 20-8 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER.

NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to win 

Miami owned the Pacers in thier last series, and matchup very well vs the Bucks in this series.  This Heat squad is a top-five rebounding side as is evident by a 51.2% rebounding rate, and this will be key to them slowing down the Bucks proficient offense. Im betting on the Heat trying to slow this game down, and grind away at the Bucks flow, which will prove a difficult obstacle to a Bucks side that operates optimally at a high pace. 

 MIAMI is 18-7 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS  after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more this season.

MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasonsMIAMI is 6-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Miami to cover 

The Jazz  and Nuggets  are playing at the slowest pace during the play offs, averaging just over 93 possessions per 48 minutes. The reason why these games have been high scoring so far in this series is because of some absolutely insane shooting especially from downtown, but their due for a regression, and Im noticing that Denver is becoming more physical, and that Im betting  is going to create tighter spaces and some ugly shooting which in turn will have a direct effect on this game being lower scoring. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 71-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

LA scored  154 points in regulation last time out , and the Clippers have scored 130 in three straight. Thats a combination of careless defence by the Mavs and some amazing shooting by the Clippers. However, all great runs must come to end, and for me I feel the Clippers proverbial engine after igniting at a high level is over heating and ready for a energy regression. With the likes of Doncic in the lineup for Dallas they remain dangerous threats, and wont be intimidated. With that said, Ill take the points. 

LA CLIPPERS are 2-13 ATS in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

DALLAS is 32-17 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.DALLAS is 25-12 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Carlisle is 40-15 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DALLAS.

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 8-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-25 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play Dallas Mavs 

Harden and company were on their way to a 3-1 series lead vs the Thunder last time out, but blew a DD lead. Now out looking for redemption I expect a herculean start to finish effort from the Rockets here vs a team that Im betting their superior to. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 season. HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 34-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.4 ppg which qualifies under a spread bet scenario. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Houston to cover 

Harden and company were on their way to a 3-1 series lead vs the Thunder last time out, but blew a DD lead. Now in redemption mode I expect a concerted two way effort from Houston and for Oklahoma city to regress offensively, which will result in a lower scoring game than expected by the lines-makers. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER  after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 208.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 71-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA.teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-18 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

After getting upset 122-110 in the series opener, the Bucks have  gone into hyper drive  defensively and have subsequently recorded three straight wins that have put them on the doorstep of advancement in the East. Defense is now the calling card for the Bucks in this series, and nothing will change today . 

The Bucks rank first in the league in defensive rating. Orlando ranks 10th in D rating and 25th in pace and 24th in ppg scored. 

ORLANDO is 27-13 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Dallas now has the Clippers complete attention, after upsetting LAC in OT last time out behind a amazing performance from Doncic. Now in a letdown spot for Dallas, Im expecting the sleeping giant known as Kawhi Leonard and company to come out here on fire and stop the Mavs cold. 

LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 18-5 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 19-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against  conversion rate! 

NBA Underdogs (DALLAS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game) after 42+ games, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

Indiana is now in desperation mode as they look to avoid elimination. There are enough quality characters and talent in this Pacers lineup to make the Heat work hard here today and to make sure they dont go down without a harddcore fight.

MIAMI is 4-15 ATS in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.

Heat are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.

Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.

Pacers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.

Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Play on Indiana to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Lake Buena Vista, F  

 The pace of the first 3 games of this series  registered at  98, 91, and 102  (with game 3 going into OT). Rinse and repeat here today. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season with as combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER when playing their 4th road game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER

Torontos offense remains explosive and  been firing on all cylinders in this series, scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions and they also love to transition at high pace, (19.25) while hitting at 55.8% effective field goal percentage rate. I know the Nets have not looked good offensively but with nothing left to lose I expect them to open and to just let loose as they hope to be competitive in what is likely their last play off game of the season.

Brooklyn in 27 games this season versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season have seen a combined average score of  225.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Mavericks young star Luka Doncic rolled his left ankle for the second time in this series last time out, and now things could easily go down hill quickly for the Mavs here in todays tilt vs the Clippers. Even if he does play today I doubt he is 100% and that will be a big problem for his team, as he is the keystone of their offence. We still have not seen the Clippers at their best, but now smelling proverbial blood in the water, they should be ready to roll mercilessly. 

Rivers is 38-19 ATS in non home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) as the coach of LA CLIPPERS.

Play on the Clippers

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Damian Lilliard is not 100%(finger injury) , and thats not a good omen as the Lakers look like they have woken up from their bubble slumber.Los Angeles limited eighth-seeded Portland to 8-of-29 shooting from 3-point range and Lillard hit just 1 of 7 attempts and that trend is worrisome for the Blazers vs what is the better team on paper. 

PORTLAND is 6-16 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Oklahoma City outshooting the Rockets from the field (44.3% – 41.8%), and just a sight uptick in their 3 point shooting Im betting will help them cover here today in desperation mode vs a Houston side that is due for some major regressions especially on defense. 

Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oklahoma city to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F
The Heat have smuthered the Pacers with defense, allowing just 100.5 points per game and 11.0 3-pointers per game and Im betting nothing changes here today.The Pacers have been outplayed at both ends of the court as is evident by allowing Miami to shoot 48.4 percent overall and make 15.5 3-pointers per game, data that ranks them third and tied for fourth among all teams through two games. Rinse and repeat with the Heat. 

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102  or more PPG) after 42+ games are 192-124 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Key offensive numbers which give momentum to a lower scoring affair here center around the  Magic have the lowest percentage of shots at the rim in the post season bubble, and  the second-least corner 3s behind a offense that is not always flowing smoothly. Thanks to their offensive inefficiencies they  have registered  the second-worst expected eFG% during these playoffs. Considering how elite the Bucks D, is Im expecting more struggles today. Meanwhile, Orlando can play conssitent D, and when Gordon is on the floor they have a star defender to mobilize against  Antetokounmpo who he  limited to 8-for-21 shooting . With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

ORLANDO is 11-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43%  or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.3 ppg.ORLANDO is 20-9 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 209 ppg going on the board.ORLANDO is 18-7 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%) or better  over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Mavericks own the No. 1 offense in the league and produced the highest offensive rating in NBA history, and have proved they can keep track with another fast paced offensive juggernaut the LA Clippers. I know the Clippers rep, but the Mavericks appear to be the better team through two games and have   scored 118 points and 114 points in their first two post season tilts , keeping their offensive averages alive and because of their ability to score and keep pace with any team in the NBA are viable underdogs in this spot.LA CLIPPERS are 5-16 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.Clippers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 playoff games as a favorite.

Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Orlando, FL

Philadelphia has given their all, but their body language at the end of game 2 tells me they already feel defeated, and that will translate on the scoreboard Im betting here again today. 

PHILADELPHIA is 4-16 ATS  in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

 BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 15-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. 

BOSTON is 23-10 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-10 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Mitchell Jazz’s All-Star guard led his side to a Game 2 victory on Wednesday by picking apart the Denver defense and finishing with 30 points (on just 14 shots) and eight assists. With Denver banged up  with Barton leaving the bubble to rehab his knee,   Gary Harris’ very questionable to return from a hip injury, Im betting Mitchell and company have the edge in game 3, especially with   Mike Conley Jr. probable to return for Friday’.

 Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 18-6 ATS  in road games off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog since 1996.

Snyder is 34-17 ATS  in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days as the coach of UTAH.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

I do expect the thunder to bounce back from their ugly game 1 performance a 123-108 loss, but this is still a bad matchup for the Thunder vs a explosive side like the Rockets. Harden reins supreme again, and the Rockets who are the superior side in this matchup prevail and cover.  You can see by this comment how confounded the Thunder are: Quote:“It’s a different team,” Thunder point guard Chris Paul said. “You play a certain way the whole season, and then you’ve got a team that switches everything. It’s Game 1. We’ve got to figure it out. That’s why they are who they are. They play totally different than any other team in the league.” End Quote:

HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS  after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more this season.

Play on Rockets to cover 

The Rockets were in a great flow pattern in game 1 of this series recording 129 Offensive Rating in the half court. This was by far Rockets’ best performance in the half court against any playoff team this season and the Thunder’s absolute worst performance. Now Im looking for a regression back to the norm for the Rockets, and for the Thunder to really look to grind this down game in physical fashion behind a 22nd ranked Pace, and 7th ranked D, and lower tier D ranked 22nd in ppg offensive output which will help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-6 UNDER versus  teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.HOUSTON is 33-19 UNDER  in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-16 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2 - Orlando, FL

The Pacers had a upbeat performance in game 1 off their bench, hitting 56% of their open shots, and today I now expect their stars to standup after a lower tier performance in game 1. 

INDIANA is 13-4 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

MIAMI is 17-36 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Pacers to cover

Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Doncic is a confident competitor with experience . His résumé includes championships and MVPs earned with Real Madrid and the Slovenian national team at the highest levels in Europe. This kid despite of his lack of NBA play off experience  is still capable of giving the Clippers some matchup problems.

DALLAS is 51-33 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.DALLAS is 23-12 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Play on Dallas to cover 

HC Brett Brown and company proved they want this to be a physical series, and thats the kind of basketball they played in game 1 losing. a-hard fought 109-101 decision that they lead going into the 3rd quarter. Quote: We’ve been beaten up and now is our moment,” coach Brett Brown said. “Now is our time to be recognized, and I think this group has the ability to do that as it sits.” End Quote:

Now with key offensive weapon Gordon Hayward expected to miss game 3 fof the Celtics the Sixers can change their lineup a bit become even more physical, which will give them a chance to compete. 

Play on the 76ers to cover 

For the first 46 minutes of Monday's Game 1, it looked like the Jazz might be able to pull off the upset, even with Mike Conley out of the lineup. They did however succumb in OT by a 135-125 count. Im betting on them rebounding with confidence and grabbing us a cover as underdogs.

DENVER is 4-16 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Utah to cover