Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2


The young legs of the Boston Celtics and the top tier coaching of Brad Stevens, is having a huge impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who for the most part are the superior team on paper, but the least consistent, and tired looking of the two teams at the moment. The Celtics are just wearing the Cavaliers down, now with a bigger lineup, and even though I expect LeBron to come out and once again put on a show I'm betting it won't be enough to the Cavs a cover tonight. At the outset of this series, I thought the Cavaliers just had to much talent, for the young Celtics , but Stevens has assembled a special hardworking team, and their capable of an outright upset vs a Cavaliers side that is showing its age, and mental wear an tear of recent play off failures . I'm also remembering the game 7 tilt where they barely got by the Pacers and are lucky to be here. With that said, lets take the points with the Celtics .

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS after scoring 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. BOSTON is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.BOSTON is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season and v is 38-17 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-20 ATS failing to cover by just under 9 ppg with rest off a 10+ loss as a dog when they are facing a team that is drawing an average of less than 20.25 fouls per game.Cleveland is 0-17 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10.5 ppg at home off a road game in which Lebron scored at least 14 points fewer than he did in their previous game.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-

This is a big game, and neither of these teams want to make mistakes here. With that said, I'm betting on a methodical and  very physical game especially from the Celtics as they look to slow down the Cavaliers sometimes explosive offensive attack via newly implemented bigger lineup. But don't underestimate the Cavs ability to push back and push back hard as is evident by the following trends.Cleveland have gone under 16 straight times  with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. In their last eight tilts  under those perimeters the Cavaliers have  allowed an average of just  90.9 ppg. 

BOSTON is 16-4 UNDER  in the 6th game of a playoff series since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 182.4 ppg. Boston has gone UNDER 10 straight times by an average of more 12 ppg  as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points .

Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 90 points or less are 87-48 UNDER L/21 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
  
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play UNDER
  
 
  
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Cleveland had a hard time finding their scoring touch in the first two games of this series, here in Boston, but I'm betting they solved their offensive  problems and the way Celtics HC Stevens was playing them. With that said, I now expect the Cavs to continue with a cohesive attack, and for the Celtics to come back with some offensive fire works of their own here in their own building, where they play their best hoops,  in a tilt I have pegged to go over the number.  Note: Cleveland has seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored on the road this season while the Celtics have seen a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored on their won home court. I'm betting on the combined score to fall in between these to totals parameters tonight. Note: BOSTON is 15-4 OVER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game this season with the combined average score clicking in at 208.8 ppg.

The Cavaliers have gone OVER 15 straight times by more than 18 ppg  with rest off a home game when their last four games are L-L-W-W and their opponent is off a loss. The Celtics have gone OVER 17 straight times  off a loss in which they had a basket-assisted percentage (BAP) of 80% or less, and at least nine percentage points higher than their opponent's BAP.

BOSTON is 22-10 OVER   in home games versus below defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 221.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER   in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

Golden State is an 8 to 8.5-point favorite in Game 4. The betting line  I'm betting is very beatable based on past performances by the Warriors at home in Oakland, California

.Since Kevin Durant came over to the  Warriors via free agency, Golden State has gone 16-0 in home playoff games,  with the average margin of victory coming by an astonishing 17.1 points per game. The team is 7-0 at Oracle Arena in their years play offs with four  of the victories coming by DDs and six wins by eight points or more. Some thought that the Rockets might make a series of this after a surprising game 2 win , but that woke the Warriors up and now their on the war path . With that said, the Warriors once again get the nod here to cover on this line  in front of the own fans.  The Rockets are 22-7 ATS L/29 at home vs a team with a .600 record or better.

GOLDEN STATE is 19-9 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by 14.3 ppg. Kerr is 18-7 ATS   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) as the coach of GOLDEN STATE witht he average margin of victory coming by 14.9 ppg.

Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 2-1

The Cavaliers finally pushed back physically in game 3 of this series, with a top tier defensive effort, that resulted in a 116-86 win and the guy that lead the way was surprisingly LeBron James , who played his best defensive tilt of the season and tossed in 27 points to boot. The Cavs put him up against Brown -- the Celtics' top player in the first two games of this series -- and Brown didn't even score until there was 8:20 left in the second quarter.I respect the Celtics , but I could feel a monumental shift taking place in that game, as the Cavaliers got their mojo back. I know the young Celtics are talking about rebounding, but after that clobbering, their mental state of underdog invincibility may have gone out the window. Stevens is already talking about lineup changes which could change the dynamic of the Celtics core, after that startling game 3 result.  With blood in the water , and the possibility of tying this game at 2 games a piece before going back to Boston for game 5 , you can bet James and company will be in top form and ready to put the hammer down vs a inexperienced group.

The Celtics are 0-6 ATS  L/6  failing to cover by more than 10 ppg with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS L/8 covering by more than 12.38 ppg with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

I finally expecting for the Cavaliers to come out here in front of their own fans and leave everything on the floor as they make an effort to make a comeback in this series down 2-0. Last time out  James had 42 points for the Cavs,  and Love 22 ,but the rest of team looked old bored and worn out. Its not like they cant wake up as a group on occasion,  as was evident vs the Pacers and Raptors , because they can. With that said, tonight  I'm  now betting the Cavs as a whole  after that embarrassment  will be firing on all cylinders offensively and that they will force the Celtics into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. My own projections estimate that both teams will hit the 105 point plateau. Note: BOSTON is 20-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season and CLEVELAND is 24-7 OVER  in home games when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last few seasons and are 35-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.

CLEVELAND is 21-12 OVER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 16-6 OVER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg going on the board. CLEVELAND  in 20 games  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen a combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 22-11 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. BOSTON is 24-13 OVER L/37  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 49-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

 Golden State ratcheted up their D in game 1 and showed us how tough they really are. I cant bring myself to bet against the Dubs SU, no matter what the circumstances are if their completely healthy, which they are. Meanwhile, Houston must  also come out and play physical  D, if they have any chance of getting back into this series, which I also have my doubts about. What I am confident about is that this game will be more grinding then game one and much more physical. Houston owns the 6th ranked Defensive effecnicy in the league, and Golden State is very under rated from a defensive perspective but must be respected behind a boat load full of talent. Look for the Rockets to leave everything on the floor here and for Golden State to break the Rockets by  slowing  their opponents offensive flow down. This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.

HOUSTON is 13-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with the combined average score  of 205.9 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER    in home games versus very good shooting teams - making  48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 15-3  L/18 UNDER   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better )  with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored.

Golden State in their  27 games as a road underdog have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER   after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER  off a road win this season with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 UNDER    in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON/GOLDEN STATE ) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 114-98 L/5  UNDER seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Cavs looked rusty in game 1 of this series after a lengthy layoff after disposing of the Toronto Raptors in 4 straight games. Meanwhile, the Celtics after a 5 game series win vs Philadelphia  remained cohesive, after a short lay off. I liked the way the Cavs matched up vs the Celtics before game 1, and despite of being wrong about the outcome of that game I still like the Cavaliers on a pickem line in game 2.
From a neutral matchup perspective LeBron James remains the worlds top hoops player, and his supporting cast matches up well vs the Celtics and are on fresher legs than their Beantown opposition. I know Celtics coach Stevens is now a media darling and taking a lot of praise for his teams , successes , and in some respects deservedly so. But lets not crown the Celtics just yet, as their previous two series victories came against untested inexperienced teams with little recent play off successes. With that said, James and company offer up a whole different opponent, than the Celtics previous two sacrificial lambs. This is a championship calibre team, facing the prospect of going down 2-0 .  Needless to say this is a huge game for the Cavs, and you can bet James and Love AND the rest of the Cavaliers will be hell bent on avoiding a loss here, which gives me confidence for staying on the Cavs bandwagon.
One last thing, despite of the Celtics being pegged as a team that was built to harass James, it must be noted that harassing him, does not equate to being able to stop him from hurting you on the court.

Note: The Cavaliers are 13-0 SU/ATS L/13  as a  /pickem/favorite off a road game in which Lebron James played more than 39 minutes which happened last time out.
CLEVELAND is 51-27 ATS  L/78 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Road team is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings . Cavs are 8-3 ATS L/11 visits to Boston.

NBA team (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 22-51 ATS in the follow up the L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland  Cavaliers to cover

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

These explosive offenses Golden State and Houston have been off for a while after clinching their play off series in quick order . This will I'm betting effect their overall flow and effect the total combined score. I'm also expecting defense to win this series and not offense. It must be noted that the Rockets rank 7th in in points allowed and 6th in defensive rating, and their 13th in PACE. Meanwhile, The Warriors, 11th in defensive rating, and must not be underestimated in their ability to clamp down behind a boatload full of talent. With that said, I am recommending we take an under stance here in game 1 on what during the regular season may have seemed like a legitimate total, but here in play off action with so much on the line, Defense will reign supreme and the number looks high.

HOUSTON is 12-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or higher) with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg.GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 217.8 ppg scored.

These teams have gone under in 5 of the L/6 meetings in Houston.. Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games..Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 96-49 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 

The young Boston Celtics played like grizzled veterans in their first two series vs two teams Milwaukee and Philadelphia who showed their inexperience. The Celtics  played physical athletic ball, and came out on top thanks to their grit and chemistry.  However, with that said, I'm betting the Celtics will  not have an answer for a well rested LeBron James and a talented play off tested Cavaliers , that has matched up well against this Beantown Hoops group in the recent past. With that said, I'm recommending we back Cleveland to come out on top in a game the lines-makers have pegged as a pickem.  It must be noted that Cleveland hammered the Celtics in Boston back on Feb 11 by a 121 -99 score, covering a 5 dogs and have won 4 of the L/5 meetings. ( I will watch this series closely, and possibly adjust my assessments based on game 1, but for now on this line the Cavs get the nod. ) 

CLEVELAND is 10-1 ATS L/11  off a home blowout win by 20 points or more . ( Cavs beat Toronto 128-93 in the last game of a 4 game series sweep)  

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG) or more against a average at best defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more are 28-3 L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.  NBA

Home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 8-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  81% rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - BOS Leads 3-1

The Boston Celtics with 3-1 series lead are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season when they host the Philadelphia 76ers this Wednesday night at the TD Center in Boston. The Celtics were the superior side in 3 of the 4 games, each time as an underdog and were head to head with the 76ers at the mid way point of the last game, before running out of gas in the 2nd half vs a desperate team, that exerted a lot of energy in that win. I'm betting the Celtics are fresher than their opponents after game 4, and will be very inspired here to end this series at home an avoid a dangerous game 6 situation. They are my choice in this tilt.

Note  NBA HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading Win/Win/Win/Loss: Game 5 record, NBA , Quarterfinals round: 16-3 (.842). Also HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ Home /Home/Visitor/Visitor than Home : Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 52-13 (.800) HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWL @ HHVV:Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 14-3 (.824).From a historical trending perspective the Celtics have an edge.

Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 26-0 series record.Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1,the Philadelphia 76ers have a 0-14 series record. No NBA  team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series.

BOSTON is 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season and is 9-0 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.BOSTON is 10-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season and is 7-0 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Boston is 7-1 SU L/8 meetings here in Boston.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 165-104 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1

The explosive Golden State Warriors with a chance to clinch this series vs the New Orleans Pelicans will come out here with all guns blazing, and the Pelicans who can also score in bunches will have no other choice but to open up with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown of the court. This game either goes back and forth as both feed off each others energy, or the Warriors romp and the Pelicans chase. Which ever of these likely scenarios emerges , the end result I'm betting will see the combined score  eclipse this Total.  It must also be noted that both teams are well rested , 2 days off, which bodes well for a high energy run and gun affair.

My own projections estimate that both sides will score north of +105 points. GOLDEN STATE is 35-11 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 52-14 OVER L/22 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 232 ppg going on the board .

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 3-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have proven that they matchup very well against the Toronto Raptors as is evident by their commanding 3-0 series lead. The Raptors have done everything but win in the three games that have been played in this series and are now a deflated team. You could see it in game 1 when they lost 113-112 in OT after leading for much of that game, and than in game 3 when the king of basketball, LeBron James made a last second shot, and snatched victory away from a horrified and demoralized Dino's group.  With the Cavaliers now smelling blood in the water, and a chance to close out this series at home ,  I expect it will be them and not the Raptors that will come out here firing on all cylinders. I'm betting its party over for the Raptors. Note: When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 4 record of 9-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2.

Cleveland has won 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series SU. Casey is 17-31 ATS   in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% are 48-8 L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.5 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 15-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Despite of the Boston Celtics 3-0 series, lead the lines-makers are barely adjusting their numbers on these play off matches with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixer's on paper are the superior team, but the Beantown hoops crew has the superior chemistry , girt and game plane to stifle a young group that may have not paced them selves properly in regular season play. Philadelphia  had a take no prisoners, pedal to the metal mindset for the 2nd half of the  season and the Sixer's because of this may have now run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. Add to that the Celtics have matched up well vs teams like Philly all season long , making them viable underdogs for the 4th straight time in this series. While past results don't guarantee a continuation of occurrences, they must still be recognized and be respected. It sure as hell looks like the current version of the Celtics has the 76ers number, and until other wise proven wrong I'll grab the points.

BOSTON is 10-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season and is 14-3 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 34-14 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots this season.

BOSTON is 13-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 L/6 SU at Philly.

BOSTON is 23-7 ATS  as an underdog this season and 16-6 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog this season and a perfect is 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS L/34 off a home loss .

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 11-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1

Houston after a ugly/lazy effort in game 2 of this series at home, woke back up last time out, and bumped up their efforts by taking a DD win vs the Jazz in Salt Lake City. That victory was the Rockets 6th DD win in  their L/7 head to head matchups with the Jazz this season, which tells a story of  overall head to head dominance . I respect the Jazz and their work effort a lot, but with G Ricky Rubio out, their at a transitional  flow disadvantage, which means their in trouble vs a side like Houston that owns a under rated D, and explosive offense, that has yet to really show its best stuff so far during this post season. I expected the Jazz to show more grit in this series, and will be more aggressive today, but it just looks like their over matched and playing with desperation isn't always a point strength but a deterrent, as foul trouble most probably will rear its ugly head here if this tilt gets really physical . Note: Houston has consistently out performed the Jazz at the FT line this season, and I'm betting nothing changes here.

HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average margin of victory combing by more than 10 ppg.

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season and now is 18-7 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season. Overall HOUSTON is 27-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a long term good bet, going 189-119 L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0

 Toronto does not seem to matchup well vs the Cavaliers.  However, after being humiliated in front of their home town fans in game 2, of their series, in a DD loss, the Raptors are now desperate for a bounce back and will playing loose. Add to that super star LeBron James,  constant taunting of both the Raptors players and their fans and you have an opponent with a chip on their shoulders and enough talent to make game 3 a war as they look to shake the cant perform in the play off moniker .With that said I'm recommending we take the Raptors plus the points  here in game 3.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  as a home favorite this season.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS    in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS  off a road win this season. HC Lue is 6-18 ATS  L/24  in home games after scoring 120 points or more .

NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 25-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After taking a few games to get acclimated and back into game shape Steph Curry is expected to start tonight for the Golden State Warriors. He is  also expected to play more than the  27 minutes he played in the last game, and will be I'm betting a big factor in the Golden State Warriors ability to cover tonight as short road favorites vs their hosts the New Orelans Pelicans. Meanwhile, the Pelicans looked much better in game 2 of this series, but make not mistake despite of their late season surge and chemistry are over matched vs a  defending championship side  that is very fresh, mostly because of the lack of effort they put forward for much of the 2nd half of the season. What I noticed was the  most troubling thing  with the Pelcians of late, is their complete lack of defense, allowing 123, 123, 121 points in their thier L/3 trips to the hardwood,  as they take on a pure attack mode, which is not a good thing against a team like Golden State,  that can run and gun with the best teams in the world and when challenged can exhibit  a very under rated D.

Note: Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-0, the Golden State Warriors have an active five-Game 3 winning streak.

GOLDEN STATE is 72-50 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last few seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more. GOLDEN STATE is 60-38 ATS  L/98 playoff games.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 152-84 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - top tier team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 78-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Golden State to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers had problems with the under rated Indiana Pacers in their last series, and barely scratched out a series win, but according to my own power rankings matchup very well vs the Toronto Raptors as has been evident in recent meetings between these two eastern conference sides. With that said, I am recommending we take the points again here in game 2 in go directly against the zig zag theory.

Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games. Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.

TORONTO is 18-33 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite and is 4-14 ATS L/18   in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent.

TORONTO is 2-13 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Toronto Raptors are 0-14 ATS as a favorite off a home game when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent.The Toronto Raptors are 0-13 ATS off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters. ( Both happened in the 1st game of this series when the Cavs came back for a 113-112 OT win)

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

I expected the Jazz to make tis a all out  in the trenches war, but I didn't expect was the Rockets were capable of coming back with some grit of their own and out gunning the Jazz in transition. Add in an explosive offense, and a under rated D, and you have to have respect for the home team here, even on a -11 point chalk line. Recently the Jazz have lost the L/5 meetings in this series by DDs. It seems no matter what they can muster the Rockets just have their number, and look especially vulnerable with Guard Rubio out with an injury. Right now I have to follow the flow of these head to head meetings and until the Jazz prove other wise, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the Rockets, especially here on their own home floor. 

HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season with the average margin of victory coming by 11.4 ppg.

Jazz are 0-13 ATS /SU as a eight-plus point dog with more than one day of rest off a loss losing SU by an average of 18.92 ppg and  are 0-11 ATS /SU  as a dog with rest off a double-digit loss as a road dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent losing by an average of 16.27 pig.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. are 33-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Warriors when at or near full strength remain the worlds most explosive basketball team. Many people doubted them during the season, but its looks very much like they were wrong, as the Dubs were just conserving their energy for the play offs. Now its full steam ahead, and all comers are in trouble including tonight's opponent the Pelicans. In game one the Warriors superiority and dominance was obvious in a 123-101  DD victory and I'm betting on more of the same over powering hoops from the defending champs tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 19-8 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by almost 14 ppg.

The Warriors are 15-0 ATS/SU covering by an average of 13.47 ppg as a well-rested home favorite off a 10+ home win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher Basket assist % than their opponent with the average SU margin of victory coming by a whopping 22 points , and over the L/3 years the Dubs are 11-0 SU/ATS under the same perimeters winning by an average of 25.63 ppg, with only one game decided by 12 points or less, and the other 10 by huge hefty DD margins.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 59-99 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total.

Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively

BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER    in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

WAR. That's what I'm betting the Jazz want to make this series into . Not only a physical in the trenches confrontation which they have an advantage in , but a mental and emotionally charged conflict. In the book the " ART OF WAR" Sun Tzu , there is a chapter that, explains how an army's opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of the enemy and how to respond to changes in the fluid battlefield over a given area. This is something the Jazz have been very good at in the 2nd half of the season, as is evident by their impressive record. I know Houston is a behemoth enemy and the Jazz are off a grueling series with the Thunder, and that now the linesmakers are  expecting an emotional  and physical drop off for the Jazz vs the Rockets in game 1 of this series. But , what's become evident to me is the rarity with which the Jazz, deter from work horse like ethics, and how disciplined they are, as well as their ability to pinpoint a teams weaknesses and attack it. With that said there is enough value on the line, for me to take the points here in game 1, and than watch closely to see which direction Ill take in game 2, depending directly on how game 1 plays out.

Just one last thing I know the Jazz have lost by DDs in recent meetings with the Rockets, but this team has shown a ability to learn from their mistakes, and Houston has recently not looked as cohesive as usual.
 Key  league wide  Trend:
Underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 43-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

If you know both yourself and your enemy, you can win numerous (literally, "a hundred") battles without jeopardy.(Verse from the Art of War)

UTAH is 8-0 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season ( which happened in their series clinching game vs the Wolves last time out) Note:
HC D'Antoni is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win by 10 points or more .

The Jazz are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU on the road with rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws , the lone SU loss came by 3 points .

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident   that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER  after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22  seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

In a game I have pegged for a run and gun affair laying 8 or 9 points is not a concern, according to my own projections. Golden State can score in bunches and that what I'm expecting they will do today against a another high octane offense, but the difference maker will come via home court advantage and the Warriors overall superior talent and of course their play off experience. The Warriors will also be motivated in knowing their opponent is streaking, and will be very prepared to take the proverbial wind out of their sails and deliver the message that the Warriors are champions to be feared, especially with Curry si  in the lineup( upgraded to possible for this game 1 tilt) Even if he does not play I still like the Warriors in Game 1 .

Also after 3 days rest, I'm betting the Pelicans momentum might take a hit. In the past , they are just  4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest and have a recent history of conference semi final ATS futility failing to cash 4 of their 5 .

Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Note: Warriors are 26-2 SU  L/28 in this series. The Pelicans did upset the Warriors this season, but Curry was not in the lineup. He's been upgraded to possibly play tonight, and I'm betting their will be no upset in this sot.

The Pelicans are 0-15  SU/ATS as a dog off a home win in which they scored at least 15 points more in the second half than they did the first half with the average margin loss coming by 15.93 ppg, with the closest loss coming by 10 points.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

The Celtics are a storied franchise, with a great fan base, and tonight, the TD Center will be rocking. This I'm betting will be an intimidating environment for the Bucks, who are at a disadvantage here in my humble opinion. The Bucks,   have lost eight straight series since winning two in 2001 and are 0-17 all-time when trailing a series 0-2. The Celtics are 35-0 when leading a series 2-0 and are once again my pick to advance to the next round and more importantly as far as we are concerned to cover the number.

"Game 7 at TD Garden is what you play for," said Boston coach Brad Stevens, whose team won a seventh game against the Washington Wizards in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The experience of that victory will also be an advantage of the Celtics.

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS on Saturday games ( anomaly or nor still an interesting trend).

BOSTON is a perfect  9-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.( They lost game 6 by 11 points, but the game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate) Celtics are 11-2 ATS off a road loss. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS L/17 as a road dog.

The Bucks are 0-24 ATS L/24 as a rested dog off a win as a home favorite over a 280+ team and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.47 like the Celtics.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 51-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average margin of victory combing by 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - CLE Leads 3-2

Ill just say it right off the bat, the Pacers are every bit as good a team as the Cavaliers, and must not  be underestimated here at home as short chalk, with elimination on the line. They  lost a last shot heartbreaker in Cleveland 98-95 and I'm betting will be on the right side of this tilt and force a game 7. QUOTE:  "The series ain't over," Oladipo said. "You got to win four games, right? We still got a game on Friday. I don't think anyone is discouraged or upset. It sucks we lose. But we can give ourselves a chance to come back (to Cleveland) for Game 7." END QUOTE. Oladipo may not be the most eloquent of speakers, but he has captured my feelings to the tee. Yes, I know the Cavs have the best player in the world on the floor ( LeBron James) but the Pacers have something that is coveted by all sports team and that is chemistry.

INDIANA is 26-13 ATS   versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

INDIANA is 15-4 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 19-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season and  is 11-2 ATS   in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season. Cavs HC  Lue is 19-34 ATS   vs. division opponents in his career.

The Pacers are 14-0 SU /ATS as a favorite with rest off a loss as a dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent with the average margin of victory coming by 15 ppg.

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are just 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87  win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots  I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. 

Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. 

BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or  free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS  in home games off a road loss this season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The Pacers took game 1 in this series by DDs, and that woke the Cavs out of dead sleep, as they realized they were in trouble, if they did not leave everything on the proverbial table. The next three games in the series, has seen the Cavs play their hearts out, and win two games, but all three games were decided by 4 points or less. With that said, I'm betting 6.5 points offers value for the underdog in a series that is evenly matched . Upset alert in motion here. 

Indiana has covered 8 of their L/10 visits to Cleveland.

CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. INDIANA is 18-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.NDIANA is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing with 2 days rest . 

NBA  team (INDIANA) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 55-26 L/5 seasons 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Heat are in a do or die situation. This is a proud group, that I'm betting Wil be primed to play tonight vs a talented but young Philadelphia group that is new at closing out play off series,something that is not as easy some might think. I know the Heat as a group understand that all they need is to come out here and give it their all and this series goes back to Miami where the Sixes will be under a lot more pressure.Like the old adage goes, It,s not over til the fat lady sings.


Quote:

It's not necessarily us against the world," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "It's us against the Philadelphia 76ers. We have to find a way to finish games. They've really nailed us in the fourth quarters of all four games, except the one we were able to pull away. We just have to do better. Through three quarters, we've been up. It's going to require a full 48-minute game of our absolute best effort." End Quote

MIAMI is 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 12-2 ATS L14 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.

MIAMI is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 21-8 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L19 in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games.MIAMI is 11-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.MIAMI is 22-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games .

Play on Miami to cover

Boston was up 2-0 in this play off series  entering the 2 game set in Milwaukee this past weekend , and blew a DD deficit last time out to lose 104-102 heart breaker to lose and now see the Bucks tie this series a 2-2. Right now the Bucks are converting    their shots at a high clip, but, their consistency all season long has been a question mark, and I'm betting they now revert back to their norms.  Even though the Bucks have been shooting the lights out in the L/3 games of this series, that's not necessarily  a good omen for them here tonight as MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS L/29 after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. It must also be noted that the never say die blue collar Celtics are 18-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and   is 11-2 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS  after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS   off a home win dating back to last season.

BOSTON is 16-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 15-6 ATS L/21 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 11-23 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

So it' do or die for the Spurs. I don' know if they can snatch this game outright but I' am betting they wont go down  without a fight.In their last trip to the hardwood hc Popovich was not on the sidelines as his wife had just passed away. I'm sure this contributed to less than focused effort from his players. Now with elimination on board and the team playing hard for their grieving coach a cover becomes a high probability betting option in my humble opinion.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBAFavorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Are 14-40 ATS L5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4- BOS Leads 2-1

The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is  a side, that just won't  lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . That,s what I said before Friday nights game, when THE Bucks came out full of energy and romped to victory over the surprised looking Celtics . However with that said I know better than to discount the Celtics from bouncing back,vs any team including what has been a inconsistent Bucks side all season 

BOSTON is 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 18-5 ATS in road games against Central division opponents.
BOSTON is 17-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.BOSTON is 8-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. HC Stevens is 25-9 ATS in road games Stevens is 10-1 ATS L11 in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more .


MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 22-31 which makes getting points here a viable betting option.


Play on Boston to cover

I'm going against the zig zag theory tonight and backing the jazz at home after ending a 7 game losing streak on the road vs Oklahoma evening this series series 1-1. The Jazz were one of the strongest teams in the league in the 2nd half of the season while oklama despite of being talented were highly inconsistent playing like championship contenders one night and chumps the next as has been the case in this play off series. I still like the thunders talent ,but playing here in Utah is not an easy  task, as is evident by the Jazz  impressive 28-13 home record. Meanwhile, the Thunder are barely above .500 on the road and look like they had some momentum snatched away from them in game 2 which was evident on the face of the players at the end of that last tilt. 

UTAH is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS  after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-18 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

UTAH is 16-7 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-26 Ats L5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 11-26 L5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jazz to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is  a side, that just won't  lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . Their truly a blue collar team that Bean town can be proud of.   With that said, I'm betting they fight til the end here tonight and get us the cover, vs a viable but very inconsistent Bucks team, that looked drained in their game 2 of this series losing in ugly fashion. (120-106). MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS   in home games off a road loss this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS  as a home favorite this season.BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog this season. BOSTON is 18-4 ATS L/22 in road games against Central division opponents.

MILWAUKEE is 13-22 ATS   revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and is 17-31 ATS  L/50 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days .

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 35-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate  for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Philadelphia had their 17 game losing streak abruptly end last time out, vs the Heat in game 2 of this series by a 113-103 count as favs, and looked like they had exerted to much energy in their opening play off tilt, exhibiting irrational exuberance. Despite of the young,  and very talented Sixer's having limited play off experience , I'm expecting they temper their excitement  going forward and pace themselves better. With that said,   I'm betting on this talented group to bounce back on the road and notch a victory here in game 3.

PHILADELPHIA is 31-13 ATS  L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or more  of their attempts. MIAMI is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season. PHILADELPHIA is 35-21 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and 25-14 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more.

NBA  team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 4.4 ppg.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - OKC Leads 1-0

The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and the first game off this series and  its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario   could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case in game 1 of this series, and  when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them, and game 1 was an indicator of this . I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line, especially with the books sticking to guns on the number. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 11 of the L/13 meetings and the last 4 meetings overall, with two of the  last three by DD deficits. In the last game the final 116-108 score was not indicative of how much better the Thunder looked in this matchup. With that said, I'll back the Thunder here at home one more time in this series and hold judgement on backing them on the road depending on the line.

UTAH is 5-17 ATS L/22  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons.

 The Utah Jazz are 0-22 ATS L/22 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-43 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

 Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NOR Leads 1-0

I was very impressed by the way the Pelicans played down the stretch, and was once again impressed by their tenaciousness effort in game 1 of this series , when they pulled off the road upset by a 97-95 score. I do know the Blazers are now in a must win situation ,and the lines-makers are sticking tight to their initial line projections. However, despite of the lines-makers stance I still feel we have  value with a underdog that matches up well vs the home favorite. Look for top tier  New Orleans'  guard  Jrue Holiday  and forward Anthony Davis to trump Blazers back curt duo of  Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum .

NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS   in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS  L/21  in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game.NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS in road games this season. NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS  off a road win this season.

The Pelicans are 17-0 as a road dog with more than one day of rest after holding their opponent to under 39.5% shooting from the field.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 42-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Much to my surprise the Milwaukee Bucks came out and showed me they have some cohunes in game 1 of this series behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (35 points) and Khris Middleton (31). They played soft for much of the season, despite of being a talented group. But now they look like they have suddenly woken up, and are in a fighting mood. That's not a good thing for a banged up Celtics group that bases their current successes on hard work, as their key offensive weapon Kyrie Irving is out of the play offs because of injury. The season has taken it toll on the never say die Celtics, and last time out they exerted a great deal of energy in trying to dispose of the Bucs, despite of  finally winning in OT. I'm betting we see the effects of their exhausting work ethic here tonight as they play this tilt with very little gas left in the tank. I know the Bucks were a little sloppy in game 1, but if they clean things up, I won't be surprised if they come out of this with a SU win and more importantly for us a cover.

  Road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings
Boston is 2-7 ATS L/9 as a home favorite. 

   MILWAUKEE is 15-4 ATS  L/19 off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last few seasons. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS L20  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games  dating back to last season. BOSTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17  in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games.  

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 71-29 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 72-26 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game  2

Philadelphia was the hottest team in the NBA down the stretch and have won 17 straight games. However, despite of that my own head to head power rankings suggest that there is value with taking points with a very physical blue collar team, in a play off game vs a side, that I can best describe as very talented but lacking grit and play off experience. The NBA post season can be very different from reg season play, especially from a physical stand point,  and that's what I'm betting on tonight .Look for  the nasty and tenacious Hassan Whiteside who will get increased minutes and inside presence  of  7 footer Kelly Olynyk to be the difference maker in a cover for our chosen side. I know the Sixers came out on fire and  took game 1 , but Im betting game 2 will be a different story from a  ATS perspective .

Heat are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game , which was the case  in game 1 of this series.

MIAMI is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 11-2 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

The Heat are 19-0 SU/ATS off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break , which happened in game 1 of this series.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario   could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them. I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 10 of the L/12 meetings and the last 3 meetings overall, the last two by DD deficits.

UTAH is 5-16 ATS L/21  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons.

The Jazz were a sub  par 20-21 road team this season, while the Thunder played their best hoops at home where they were 27-14.

The Utah Jazz are 0-21 ATS L/21 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 154-35 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 6.9 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-42 for a go against  69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1


Since the beginning of the season the Boston Celtics have defied the experts, and played tough cohesive basketball, despite of key injuries and once again must be respected , even though they enter the play offs without injured star Kyrie " Flat Earth" Irving and limped into the post season . According to my own power rankings, the Celtics matchup very well against the inconsistent Bucks, a side that despite of being offensively talented have a tendency of playing soft, which is never good against this type of hardworking physical side. I know the Bucks beat the Celtics the last time they faced each other on April 3 106-102 @ Wisconsin, but it must be noted that BOSTON is 16-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

BOSTON is 7-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Boston 11-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season , which happened in their finale vs Brooklyn when most or all the regs rested an attribute to their never say die attitudes.

MILWAUKEE is 7-15 ATS L/22 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts . BOSTON is 26-12 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 13-4 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-15 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.


NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 57-9 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 9.8 ppg.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, playing with 3 or more days rest are 24-6 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by just under 7 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

New Orleans has roared into the play offs with 5 straight wins, including a 122-98 beat down of San Antonio in the last game of the season. They are currently playing with a lot of confidence and must respected here as underdogs. Pelicans HC Gentry is 17-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more . Meanwhile, Portland won their L/game of the season but prior to  that lost 4 straight, and were playing inconsistent hoops . I'm betting on Pelicans Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo  clamping down on Lillard and McCollum with a  suffocating  brand  of defense and for this game to be closely contested with the points proving to be golden.

Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 23-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.  NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS  in road games this season.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover

San Antonio's defense  did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6).
Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
What I'm betting happens tonight is that the Warriors will come out in full attack mode, and force the Spurs into keeping pace with some offensive fireworks of their own  or be blown of the court. This will lead to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect.

GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER  in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The No. 3 seed in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday, when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers. the Jazz have been playing great ball, but "Portland is a really tough place to play," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said during Tuesday's postgame press conference. "It is an important game from a seeding standpoint. So no matter what or how each team has preformed of late, it matters very little in under these circumstances.

It must also be noted that the Jazz played last night and really revved things up against the Warriors, beating them by wide DD margin . I'm sure their now on tired legs which is not necessarily a good omen, as they  are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing with no  rest.

I'm betting home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight.

PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS  L/13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more of their shots.PORTLAND is 19-6-1  ATS  L/26 as a favorite this season and 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games vs. division opponents . Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are just 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Denver Nuggets visit the land of lakes this Wednesday night  to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves,  in a do or die battle that will see the winner advance to the postseason while the loser heads to the wasteland of the  offseason . From a matchup perspective, I feel these teams are fairly evenly matched, but home court advantage is definitely important factor that I'm betting favors the Wolves. I also feel strongly that Denver has had to exert a lot of energy in their quest for a post season appearance than the Wolves, and are exhausted entering this Thunder dome confrontation. That was never more evident than in the Nuggets last tilt,  when they clawed their way back  from a  11-point, second-half deficit and somehow notched a  88-82 win  while holding Portland to  just 13 points in the fourth quarter thanks to a massive physical assault  that I know took its toll on this squad.
Tonight as this game progresses, look for the home town crowd and the Nuggets  emotional and physical exhaustion to be key factors in them failing to cover here.

MINNESOTA is 32-18 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game.MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS   in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-3 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of MINNESOTA.  DENVER is 7-15 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-48 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors losing SU by 9.3 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a 62% go against  conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Golden State Warriors are limping into the post season and not looking as cohesive as they have in the past, as is evident by losing 9 of their L/16 games overall, and have  failed to cover 13 of their L/19 overall, thanks to a lack of defensive prowess and recently allowed 126 points in back-to-back losses to Indiana and New Orleans. . Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz have really progressed this season,  and  rank 13th in the NBA in offensive efficiency (108.5) and lead the league in defensive efficiency (97.9) since mid-January. In recent head to head matchups vs the Dubs the Jazz have  produced two straight lopsided beat downs  including delivering a  129-99 proverbial  boot in the face in the champs last visit to Salt Lake City on Jan. 27. A repeat is not out of the question.

The  Jazz despite of a guaranteed play off spot can still move up and grab the No.3 seed from Portland who are just one game ahead of them in the standings, and  are a viable betting option here at home with momentum and motivation as contributing positive factors. I know its never easy betting against the Warriors, but right now they look asleep at the proverbial wheel and are playing with little or no urgency as a group.

GOLDEN STATE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%)  .UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game . ( Utah 112 Opp 99.6)

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win against a division rival are 2-28  L/21 seasons with the average margin loss coming by 9.9 ppg.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 20-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

The Miami Heat enter this game off a ugly loss vs the NY Knicks last time out, and will now be very motivated to bounce back vs the Oklahoma City as they need to get some momentum going before the play offs begin and also get redemption for a loss where  they overlooked their opponent. Add to that the Heat have revenge on board for a loss to the Thunder, 105-99 as 6 point road dogs earlier this season  and you have a viable home dog to back. Meanwhile, the Thunder could easily find themselves in a letdown situation after exerting a lot of energy in a 108-102 upset win vs the Houston Rockets last time out, and  could see their flow interrupted by the Heat side, that has the ability to play a tough physical style of defensive ball. Note: The Thunder are just 3-5 SU L/8 overall and have proven to be highly inconsistent this season despite of their talent levels.

Thunder are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MIAMI is 11-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-25 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season and just  7-16 ATS ( when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-21 ATS   after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more 43-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-19 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

 The Raptors (57-22) conclude their home schedule Sunday when they play the Orlando Magic (24-55) at the Air Canada Centre. Last time out the Magic were embarrassed  losing to the Charlotte Hornets by a 137-100 count on Friday night. They had 4G league players in the lineup, and the kids did not take advantage of those minutes, and HC Vogel was very upset, saying they missed their opportunity. QUOTE:"Our four young guys, they got opportunities to play extended minutes and earn jobs and make a name for themselves, and they did not take advantage of that opportunity tonight," Vogel said. END QUOTE: I know Orlando does not have much to play for, but pros don't like to be embarrassed , and withAaron Gordon and Nikola Vusevic upgraded to probable for this contest the Magic must be considered viable underdogs vs a team more interested in staying healthy then delivering a beat dwn vs a downtrodden side that I'm sure their overlooking.

  Magic are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Magic are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Orlando is 2-1 SU L/3 visits to Toronto.

The Raptors are 0-15 ATS at home off a win as a home favorite when they allowed fewer than 90 points in each of their last two games , losing SU up 10 times, with the largest margin of victory coming by no more than 6 points.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

Both Detroit and their hosts today the Memphis Grizzlies are out of the play offs. The difference between both sides, is that Memphis is banged up and an overall downtrodden group and looked like they have mailed it completely of late losing 4 straight , with 3 by ugly DD scores, which includes a sleep 94-92 home loss vs lowly Sacramento last time out. 

Meanwhile HC VanGundy of the Pistons has seen his team win 8 of their L/10 with the two losses coming to top tier squads Philadelphia and Houston, and overall still look motivated and playing like they care. I'm expecting they come out here and continue to play with a chip on their shoulders as they look to finish off their season on a high note.


MEMPHIS is 9-19 ATS in non-conference games this season. 

Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
Pistons are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record


NBA Road favorites (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

The play off bound Indiana Pacers are very under rated and are very dangerous according to my power rankings and must be respected here as short favorites on the road. With the Cleveland Cavaliers a possible play off matchup for them , I'm betting they will want to build positive momentum going into the post season and will be ready to run and gun vs a very inconsistent  below .500 Charlotte Hornets side today.

Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference.Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hornets are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

INDIANA is 9-1 ATS  n road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons ( They lost to the explosive Raptors last time out, playing back to backs a night after beating the Warriors)

INDIANA is 11-3 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.INDIANA is 11-2 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-11 ATS   versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season. INDIANA is 24-12 ATS as a favorite this season.

CHARLOTTE is 1-8 ATS   as a home underdog this season. CHARLOTTE is 9-24 ATS  as an underdog this season.The Hornets are 1-16 ATS/0-17 SU as a dog off a road win when they allowed 100+ points in each of their last two games.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-85 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Two teams that could be potential first-round opponents in the upcoming NBA playoffs  go head to head this  Saturday night when the New Orleans Pelicans visit  the Golden State Warriors in Oakland . With that said, I expect the Warriors to primed and ready to send a message their visiting opponents here today before the post season starts. I know the defending champs have not looked as explosive as they usually do of late, but now as the play offs approach I expect we will see them amp up into top gear. Yes, Steph curry is out, but this Warriors team even with him missing must be respected, especially against a side on tired legs after playing last night in Phoenix winning 122-103. Note: The Pelicans have lost three straight to Golden State this season by an average of 11 points and have lost 10 straight meetings in this series.  Also NBA teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are just 19-55 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.  

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 49-4 SU L/22 seasons winning by an average of 11 ppg.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 34-4 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 10.6 ppg. ( Underrated/Dangerous  Indiana upset the Warriors last time out)

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 46-5 winning by an average of 10.5 ppg.

Play on Golden State to cover

Denver enters this game having won 4 straight games and 6 of their L/8 overall.Right now, The Nuggets remain in ninth spot in their post season chase because the Timberwolves own tiebreakers over them. But win the last three games, including the season finale in Minnesota next week? The Nuggets are in the playoffs. With that said, you can bet the Rocky Mountain hoops crew will leave everything on the floor tonight as they cannot afford a loss. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers have lost 3 of their L/4 games and  most probably out of post season contention and also look to be at a disadvantage today, as Danilo Gallinari (hand), Milos Teodosic (foot), Jawun Evans (groin), Avery Bradley (groin) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are all banged-up. I'm betting on the hungrier side with play off aspirations coming out of this with a victory.

DENVER is 38-17 ATS L/54 in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread which happened last time out vs Minnesota..

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) ARE 34-19 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Any team vs the money line (DENVER) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 52-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The NY Knicks have had another below .500 season, but believe it or not they have actually  not been that bad at home overall, going 18-20 SU as hosts . Meanwhile, their guests the Miami Heat have had a decent season, and are play off bound,  but are just 18-22 SU on the road during their campaign, and find themselves more interested in staying healthy than beating up on a downtrodden side.  I know the Knicks have looked lifeless of late and  have lost six of seven,  but I expect them to look for a little bit of redemption after being embarrassed  in their worst offensive output of the season in Tuesday's 97-73 home loss to Orlando.  The Knicks were booed off the court in that above mentioned tilt, and knowing how pros don't like to be embarrassed I expect a little bit of bounce back here against a Miami side that they have revenge for after being thumped by them the last time they played in South Florida a couple of weeks ago. So lets plug our noses, close our eyes and just pull the proverbial trigger on the Knicks to cover vs what should be a disinterested Heat.

MIAMI is 2-11 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. NYK HC Hornacek is 38-20 ATS  in his career after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

NBA  Underdogs (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 28-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 28-16 L/21 seasons for a 63% SU conversion rate.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Miami is play off bound, and will want to sharpen up on their top tier brand of defensive basketball. I expect they will be very focused on being defensively responsible here this evening and for them not to be interested in a run and gun style of play, as they look to stay fresh for the post season. The Heat are 4th in in the league in points allowed and 27th in PACE. Meanwhile, NYK, despite of wanting to push for a more wide open attack tonight after suffering a ugly 97-73 set back last time out, will still have to contend with very good D, in a game I'm betting stays on the low side of the number.

The Knicks have gone under 14 straight times at home off a loss as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 80 points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 171.9 ppg, with the highest combined score reaching just 188 points.

Under is 5-1-1 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 19-6-2 in Knicks last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in New York.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 57-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind/

Play UNDER

The Bucks have clinched a play off spot and are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but can still grab a higher seeding with some late season wins , so a motivated effort should be expected. Meanwhile, the Nets are 28 games under .500 and have nothing left to play for, except a higher lottery pick,  and currently look to be in full tank mode after a lackluster 121-95 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and now should be expected to provide little fight tonight on the road in Wisconsin. The Bucks have had their way with the Nets recently winning both meetings this season by lopsided DD scores, and have garnered 10 straight wins this series, and I'm betting one more victory and cover are on tonight's agenda.

Nets are 7-23-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

The Nets are 0-12 ATS /SU losing SU by 15.3 ppg  as a road dog off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like the Bucks .

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.6 ppg.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The visiting Philadelphia 76ers and their hosts the Detroit Pistons are currently playing at a very high level entering this tilt. The young men from Philly are 10-0 L/10 and have covered 9 straight , with the Motown crew having won 7 of their L/8 and covered all 8. Tonight in a head on collision I like the travellers to get the job done vs a side that needs a win desperately to keep their extremely slim play off hopes alive. It must be noted that the Pistons have exerted a great deal of energy lately to keep their dreams alive, and despite of 2 days rest could easily fade  here against a very well conditioned side. Philadelphia took each of the first three meetings, including a 114-78 crusher Jan. 5 at home and its obvious matchup well against the Pistons, and they  get my backing again.

 PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS  L/17 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts . DETROIT is 16-33 ATS  L/49 when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season.

 NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road wins are just 30-49 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 62% for bettors on the blind.

 Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers have already clinched  a postseason spot and now staying healthy will be a priority, which will translate into what I'm betting will be a slight lack of motivational effort and  extra drive which will help us cover the number with Dallas this evening. It must be noted that despite of Portland's very explosive March where they went 12-3 SU, they have shown a reversion to the norm,  especially with  their formerly hot down town shooting, and enter this game having cooled down considerably  now converting a  league-worst 27.9 percent over the last six games. Also with road  games coming up against San Antonio and Houston, a look ahead situation is not out of the question for the Blazers, and gives further credence to my home underdog stance this evening.

DALLAS is 29-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. DALLAS is 21-11 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or les turnovers/game this season.DALLAS is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in home games against Northwest division opponents. DALLAS is 24-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.( Portland beat Dallas as road chalk  107-93 back on Jan 26 th)

Play on Dallas to cover

The Warriors remain a little banged up but  most of the their key cogs like Durant, Thompson, Green are expected to play tonight with only Steph Curry on the sidelines. I know the Warriors don't have alot to play for from a standings perspective as  they are guaranteed the No. seed in the West, but cohesiveness now becomes a question mark, because of a late season tumble because of injuries, and lackluster play, and its now imperative they get into a rhythm before the play offs begin. I also know Oklahoma State will be sky high to take down the Warriors tonight, but I'm betting that will not be an easy feat , as the Dubs would love nothing more than to send a message to opponents before the post season arrives.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season( Golden State won the last meeting back on Feb 24,  112-80)  . OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-39 ATS  as a favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 27-5 L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 41-82  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors

The Pistons play off hopes are slim, as they are 5 games behind Milwaukee for the final spot in the East, but they still have not given up the chase for the post season, with six games remaining and have won 4 straight and are  6-1 in its last seven games  and enter this tilt vs Brooklyn with a full head of steam.   Detroit during their current hot run are  averaging 109.1 points, shooting 46.6 percent and getting 49.4 rebounds while limiting their  turnovers ( 11.9 ppg).  I know the Nets are playing decently of late, but my own power rankings and player vs player and system vs system matchups  suggest they do not matchup well vs this type of team and are on tired legs after playing last night and at a dsiadvantage.

Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Road favorites (DETROIT) - a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team, on Sunday games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

The  Philadelphia 76ers  enter this game vs their hosts Charlotte  with a full head of steam this  Sunday afternoon. The Sixer's have won 9 in a row  and will be out to  sweep the season series vs a side that they matchup very well against as was evident by winning all 3 previous games this season by double digits. Charlotte has lost 2 straight and failed to cover 3 straight and ar eon tired legs after playing last night , which adds to their fade material status today.

The 76ers outscored the Hornets 102-51 on 3-pointers in the last two meetings, going 34 of 77 from beyond the arc and a repeat performance is a high probability outcome in this spot considering both sides current form.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 25-6 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

CHARLOTTE is 6-25 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 as a home underdog .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing on back-to-back days are 7-36 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 7.7 ppg.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 26-4  L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by more than 11 ppg.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are still a little banged up, and on a current 3 game losing streak. Their not as cohesive as usual, and playing uninspired basketball. Can the Warriors turn the switch and go into over drive. Yes, off course they can, but I'm betting the goal right now is to remain healthy heading towards the play offs and to stave of fatigue. With that said, if the Dubs win tonight, I'm betting  they do it without going into top gear, and for the hardworking young Kings to play this game like its their own version of a championship game, which makes getting points here a viable wagering opportunity.

GOLDEN STATE is 30-42 ATS  in all games this season.SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS  L/24 as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points dating back to last season.

Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Star G John Wall is expected to return to the Washington Wizards today against Charlotte, after a lengthy absence because of  injury . This I'm betting will rejuvenate a sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards. They can clinch a play off spot if they get a win today and also get revenge for a Feb 23rd loss here at home by a ugly 122-105 count. I'm betting the Wizards get their payback.

Charlotte has lost 6 of their L/9 on the road and have failed to cover 20 of their L/34 road games this season.Hornets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

WASHINGTON is 9-0 ATS L/9  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last few seasons.( lost to the Pistons last time out as 2.5 point road chalk-102-93) CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS  as an underdog this season with 7 point deficit over that period.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 33-4 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.5 ppg.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March games are 45-2 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento has been off for a couple days since getting stepped on by Dallas as chalk in their last home tilt on Tuesday . Their coach Dave Joerger  was really peed off after that tilt as his players looked inattentive in that game,  during what has been a bizarre week of riots in Sacramento after another deadly police shooting. The HC appreciates the stance his players have taken to support the protesters, but has reminded his men that they must be professionals. QUOTE: "We respect that, but we've still got to come in, be professionals, and bring the same juice, the same energy every night." END QUOTE:
Tonight I'm expect the Kings to bring some energy to the floor and get us the cover vs a  tired Indiana group playing their 4th game in 6 days and their second in a row on the road after taking out a banged up Golden State side in their last effort (92-81) 

Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in March games are 105-41 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Sacramento Kings to cover

Boston might be banged up but they have proved a resilient bunch and better than the sum of their parts over and over again this season, and must never be underestimated.  QUOTE: The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don’t play together, the club won’t be worth a dime.”  Babe Ruth :END QUOTE

Utah beat Boston earlier this season, and short handed or not the Celtics have revenge on board, and a tenacious never say attitude to go along with it and is 14-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. BOSTON is 25-11 ATS  in road games this season and have won 6 of their L/7 away from home.

Boston buys into a team concept that's what makes them so good. You might not always see it in the final score, but you can definitely see it on the floor and with their work ethic  game in and game out. Taking point with them, even when their banged up is not reaching and a viable investment opportunity.

BOSTON is 21-12 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BOSTON is 14-4 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins 51-20 L/22 seasons for a 73% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Memphis upset Northwest-contending Minnesota 101-93 on the road Monday night and showed some fight despite of their imminent lottery pick situation . With Portland playing the second of back to backs this Wednesday  on tired legs, and most likely over looking  the lowly the Grizzlies another possible upset could be in the cards and more importantly a cover. It must also be noted that after losing 2 consecutive games , Portland has pulled out two back to back wins of less than 5 points , and are less cohesive then they were during a 12 game win streak.

MEMPHIS is 48-29 L/76 ATS   in home games off an upset win as a road underdog.

Injury update. D Lillard is expected to miss this game vs Memphis.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 106-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less are 25-10 SU L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. ( Memphis lost both games in this series at home back in November)

Play on Memphis to cover

These teams played last week with the Clippers pulling of the road win, now in the rematch the Bucks will primed to pull off upset in revenge mode. With both teams seeking a play off appearance you can bet this will be a battle, which makes taking points here a viable wagering option.  

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The Clippers are 0-12 ATS/SU  with rest off a win as a dog when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like Milwaukee.

NBA   team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 41-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 33-17 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Dallas enters this game in full lottery pick tank mode, as is evident by a current 5 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 6-7 SU (9-4 ATS) in their L/13 games, and still playing spirited basketball. From a power ranking perspective my numbers suggest the  Kings are the superior side here on their own home floor.  In other words the lesser of two evils resides with the hosts.

DALLAS is 1-10 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

The Kings are 13-0/SU ATS covering by  as a home favorite with less than two days rest after their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

DALLAS is 4-12 ATS   versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Sacramento has won 3 of the L/4 games here in Sacramento.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pelicans (43-31) on 2 days rest will be rejuvenated and  primed to take on the visiting Portland Trail Blazers (45-28) on Tuesday night at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans have won four of the last five meetings against the Trail Blazers, including the last two -- a 123-116 victory on Dec. 2 at Portland and a 119-113 win on Jan. 12 in New Orleans. From a power rankings perspective, despite of the Blazers red hot form the Pelicans match up well against this team in a systems analysis and get the nod here on their own home floor.

Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 13-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Wizards are struggling and need wins badly and are currently one game ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference . Tonight I'm betting the  Wizards will be ready for a San Antonio team playing much better basketball of late. The Spurs despite of their improved play, had a  6-0 home stand go flat when they went on the road and lost to a inconsistent Milwaukee team last time out for their 4th straight road loss. It must also be noted that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Spurs have looked like two different teams, when playing as host and than as visitors which must be worrisome for HC Popovich and company. After getting blind sided by the lowly NY Knicks last time out, I'm betting this sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards has some extra jump here  tonight and  take out the Spurs in this spot.

WASHINGTON is 36-20 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last few seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 36-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

 Denver is seven games above .500,  and are still not guaranteed a play off position, and are one game behind Utah in the  Western Conference Northwest Division. Needless to say every game is of the utmost importance . This kind of desperate  side that validates a betting stance. I know Philly has been hot, but Denver is no pushovers and must be respected here with so much on the line when it comes to post season implications. Add to that the Nuggets have revenge on board for a loss at home to the 76ers back on Dec 30th of this season. DENVER is 15-6 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season

Note: The 76ers have lost 5 of their L/7 SU vs above .500 opposition.

Nuggets are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Nuggets are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS  L/34 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Denver to cover

Utah has not looked all that cohesive in their last few games losing twice, once to lowly Atlanta and in OT last time out vs San Antonio and in the one victory they looked far from dominating vs a Dallas squad in tank mode. In this spot vs  a banged up Golden State team, the lines-makers have decided they deserve to be more than 5 point road favorites. But I'm betting that number is a little bloated, considering how deep the Warriors truly are. With Thompson, Durant, Curry out of the lineup the Warriors can no longer be considered super human, but now just a average to below average side. But when co-coordinating similar lines, and comparing them to my own power rankings , we still have value with a home pup with revenge on board for a ugly 129-99 loss earlier this season to todays visitor Utah.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Jazz are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.

UTAH is 14-27 ATS  L/41  in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last  few seasons.

Note: Warriors Draymond Green is upgraded to probable Sunday.

NBA  Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 48-6 SU L/21 seasons for 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

Charlotte has looked explosive at times this season, and crapped the bed on other occasions. But you can see their abilities when their in a flow, and after back to back wins vs Brooklyn and 61 point margin of victory vs Memphis (140-79) behind the resurgent Dwight Howard, this is now a viable team to back. With that said, I'm betting another struggling side like Dallas on a current 4 game losing streak does not pose much of a challenge to them in their current form. Let's not forget  Dallas owners Mark Cubans indirect comment that he thinks his team should go into tank mode for a better lottery choice, and we have a situation to bet into that favors the streaking visitor.

Add to that the Charlotte has revenge and motivation on board for a home loss they suffered to the Mavericks earlier this season 

Injury update: Dallas key cog G Denis Smith  is playing at less than 100% with various nagging injuries and may miss tonight's game.

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season. Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Mavericks are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA Road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 27 -8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for  bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after allowing 115 points or more are 36-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to win

Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are playing quality hoops at the moment, and with the play offs approaching will be concentrating on being a little more diligent in the defensive end of the court and in transition. I know both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry , but with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines with an injury for the Wolves, and this being their 5th game in 8 days, I'm betting Minnesota won't be as fluid as the linesmakers expect vs staunch Philly D . It must also be noted   that the 76ers  are also in tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 night. These scheduling anomalies  I'm betting effect both sides offensive output here today, making this a viable under wager.

Minnesota is 24th in the league in PACE. Philadelphia is ranked 4th in PACE but are ranked 4th in defensive rating and are a highly under rated defensive side.

PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 UNDER  L/35 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with a combined average score of 211.1 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. HC Brown is 10-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of the Sixer's with a combined average of 202 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 40-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA/PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 140-50 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive win are 44-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for  a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Atlanta enters this game off a  99-94 win vs Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Their were a few factors at work in that win, but the Hawks overall ugly record speaks for itself, and those types of performances are not consistent . With that said, I now expect a emotional letdown situation to effect the Hawks in this spot vs the Sacramento Kings. I know both teams are in tank mode, but Atlanta smashed Sacramento 126-80 at home on Nov. 15, and I'm betting the Kings will have a little bit of extra energy in the tank tonight in payback mode. 

ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS   in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last few  seasons. Sacramento has won and covered the L/2 meetings here in California's capital.  

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 5-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record .Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

 NBA Favorites (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 144-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The LA Clippers looked exhausted last night in a DD 123-109 loss to Minnesota and  are on very, very, very tired legs entering this tilt vs Milwaukee  this Wednesday night on a 4 game losing streak. With this being their 5th  away game in 8 nights their exhausted as they allowed 120+ points for the third consecutive time . . Last night I advised we  back the Wolves, and tonight I'm recommending we do the same by backing the Bucks. The key here is burnout, and the Clippers are exhibiting signs of classic work place fatigue.

LA CLIPPERS are 3-11 ATS  after allowing 120 points or more this season.Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Milwaukee has won both meetings recent meetings in this series, home and away.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 23-57 ATS L/5 seasons for  ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Raptors  smashed the Cavs, the three-time-defending champions in the East, their worst loss of the season when they beat Cleveland 133-99 on Jan. 11 and now payback and some measured respect is on the line in the rematch for LeBron James and company. James is playing great hoops of late   Love is back in the lineup , and even  Tristan Thompson (sprained right ankle) and Rodney Hood (lower back strain) were upgraded to questionable for Wednesday's game, which has me coming in late here to lay down some cash on the Cavs. Note: The Raptors have looked a little tired of late, and played last night which should effect their energy levels late in this game when things count most. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

Cleveland is 7-1 SU L/8 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 114-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 43-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The LA Clippers are on very tired legs entering this tilt vs Minnesota this Tuesday night. In their last game  on Sunday... back home in  Los Angeles they played their third contest in three cities in four nights and now this will be their 4 away game in 6 nights, which I am betting will effect their play here this evening. Yes, Minnesota will play without key cog Jimmy Butler, but their still plenty of fight and talent in this this lineup and their more than capable of snatching a win in this spot at home where they are 26-9 this season.

Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MINNESOTA is 36-20 ATS  L/56 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 53-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Oklahoma City Thunder may find themselves in a precarious letdown spot here this Tuesday night in Boston as they visit the Celtics  after a very hard fought win vs the Toronto Raptors last time out that ended the Raptors 11 game win streak. I watched a last part of that tilt and was a grueling affair. Meanwhile the Celtics have won their last two games against the Thunder, including a 101-84 victory on Nov. 3 at Oklahoma City and despite of some injuries matchup well against the Thunder. I know that the Thunder are streaking but from a ATS perspective, they don't deal well with success as they are just  1-13 ATS  L/14  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and are fade material here at 4 point or more chalk.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-23 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-19 ATS ( revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60% ) are 44-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Memphis Grizzlies have had a horrendous season,  but are off a win vs Dallas last time out, which ended a 19 game losing streak. The Grizzlies despite of their failures have remained fairly competitive and saw 10 of those 19 losses come by single digits , and are more than capable of covering again vs a inconsistent Brooklyn Nets side that has lost 12 of their L/15 overall, and  has lost 22 of their 34 homes games this season.

Memphis has won and covered their L/2 trips to Brooklyn. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Memphis to cover

The red hot  Portland Trail Blazers  enter into tonights LA game vs the Clippers on Sunday night with big targets on their backs after notching 12 consecutive victories. With the Blazers also eyeing big upcoming tilts vs Houston and the Boston Celtics they may not be completely focused here which  could I'm betting  result in a negative effort vs a team primed to grab a victory and end their opponents win streak.

It must be noted that Los Angeles turned it over 23 times in a sloppy 121-113 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and are now 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and desperate for a win. The Clippers are 7-1 L/8 ATS off a loss.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers

Charlotte's Hornets star Dwight Howard  enters this game on fire ,  playing some of his best basketball in years with three 30-point games in the last 10 days, including a 33-point performance in a 129-117 win over his former team, the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight I'm betting he will be the catalyst behind what is a now an explosive Charlotte offense that can easily take advantage of a team that has lost 9 straight and 17 of their L/18 games overall and playing a lot of young players.

NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS  L/30 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.

Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

NBA Favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-5 ATS l/21 seasons for a  85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

One of Houston's three losses since Jan. 6 was a 115-113 setback at New Orleans on Jan. 26 and now the teams play again. Houston is off clinching the division title last time out, on Thursday and could now be in a letdown spot vs a side that actually matches up quite well against them as has been evident by recent meetings. I know New Orleans has struggled a bit over tier  last few games, but taking on this type of top tier side I'm betting will bring out the best them.  Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod getting points here this evening.

Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.Underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season  are 44-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

 The Oklahoma City Thunder have made a habit of beating up on lower tier teams, which is good as their taking care of business when they need to but, they have struggled against better teams. . Since Feb. 1, the Thunder are just 2-6 against teams with better-than-.500 records, beating only Golden State on the road and the Spurs at home. Tonight they go against another above .500 opponent, the LA Clippers a team that desperately needs win to get into the play offs as they are on the bubble at the moment. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 to stay in playoff contention and must not be underestimated in their current desperate form.

Note: The Thunder could be without Center Steven Adams and George who were both limited in Thursday's practice and both are listed as questionable. If they do play they will be less than 100%,giving a key advantage to the Clippers.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  on Friday nights this season.

The Thunder are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by 9.75 ppg and 1-11 with that win coming by just 1 point when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a road favorite in which their high scorer had at least ten more points than their next highest scorer.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Both these sides have played some fairly high scoring back and forth games of late, but the Clippers still key on defense to get where they need to go, and have seen 3 of their L/4 stay under the total . The average combined score of the  Clippers road games clicks in at around 216 ppg.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also has been running and gunning on a consistent basis, but because of this the lines makers are attaching some slightly bloated Totals to their tilts which makes for value when looking at the under as is evident by 4 of their L/5 home tilts failing to eclipse the number. The Thunders home games have seen a combined average score of 209.6 ppg scored behind the 20th ranked pace in the league and the 8th best defensive rating. My projections make this Total closer to 219 which gives us value on the under.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-27 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season with a combined average score of 211.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER L/33 against Pacific division opponents with a combined average score of 213.1 ppg scored.

The Thunder are 0-20 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest when they won as a favorite in each of their last two games with the highest score in those games coming in at 218 total points with the average combined score clicking in at 193.7 ppg.

The Thunder are 0-19 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a double-digit win as a favorite with the highest score in those games not eclipsing the 216 point plateau.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 38-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average score of 211.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER

The banged up Boston Celtics gave everything they had against long time rivals the Washington Wizards last time out losing, 125-124 in OT. Now still shorthanded playing without key cog Kyrie Irving and exhausted and emotionally letdown after that above mentioned marathon event,  they will  be at a disadvantage  trying to cover a 6 point + spread on the road against a young hungry group in Orlando looking for recognition.

Meanwhile, Orlando has also sustained some injuries, but they are also hanging in there, and are off a win last time out and for the most part remain competitive and deserve my respect here as home dogs in this spot.

I know that Boston lost to Orlando at home back in Jan , but right now I don't think their in the best shape mentally or physically to get their revenge and  hand out a beat down in their current form

BOSTON is 9-21 ATS versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. .

The Celtics are 0-15 ATS failing to cover by an average of 7 ppg off a home loss in which they scored at least ten points more in the first quarter than they did in the fourth quarter and 2-13 SU with both wins coming by just 3 points. .

NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 95-154 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

Heading into this tilt at Indiana , the  Toronto Raptors are in red hot form and  have won nine in a row and 16 of its last 17 and are one of  the very few teams in this league that must be respected as road favorites. I know Toronto has played a heavy schedule of late , but they are the best conditioned team in the NBA, and more than capable of standing tall here and notching  the win and cover s visitors. A great deal has been made of Indiana, and I  respect this team, but they have proven highly inconsistent this season, with long negative and positive runs and despite of a current 3 game win streak and 6 wins in their L/7 overall , just  dont' inspire me against this type of lights out side, that will primed to continue to prove their dominance over the Eastern Conference.  

Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

TORONTO is 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Toronto 114.6 Opp 97

NBA Road favorites (TORONTO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-3 L/21 seasons for a 89.% conversion rate for bettors. ( Team 98 Opp 87.5)

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Philadelphia enters this game having lost  eight of its last 11 road games, and are being over valued here vs a Brooklyn side that has been very competitive of late covering 5 of their L/6 games overall including a DD win last time out. Note: BROOKLYN is 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.  Meanwhile, The Sixer's issues of late seem to be a lack of conditioning as they have looked fatigued , with key contributors like Joel  Embiid  who has looked gassed in recent outings averaging just 18.8 points on 41 percent shooting in five games in March after averaging 24.4 ppg on 50.3 percent shooting in February. QUOTE: "I think fatigue definitely has a part to say in some of Joel's performances recently," Philadelphia coach Brett Brown told reporters after Thursday's game when Embiid shot less than 30 percent for the first time all season. END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a fairly well rested Brooklyn side to make a game of this and not be easy outs . Take the points.

( The last time these teams played here in Brooklyn back on Jan 31 the Nets won 116-108 as 8 point dogs)

BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.BROOKLYN is 25-12 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread this season.BROOKLYN is 32-20 ATS   as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 19-9 ATS  L/28 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 71-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 6-26 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

Charlotte enters this game in a big time funk having lost 5 straight games, and should not be DD favs against any team at the NBA in their current form not even the lowly Phoenix Suns. That was evident in a disheartening loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night which will make getting up off the proverbial matt very difficult for the Hornets.

The Hornets nasty D, makes them fade material as DD home chalk. The Hornets have allowed 121 or more points six times in their last 15 games.

CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS  L/13 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS  L/13 playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.

The Suns are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by 9.6 ppg on the road off a game as a dog when they are off two double-digit ATS losses. The Suns were 9-4 SU in those games with non of the losses coming by more than 7 points.The Hornets are 1-18 SU and 2-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers.

NBA Road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 62-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers' current eight-game winning streak began Feb. 14, when the Golden State Warriors visited here just before the all star break. The Blazers won that game by a 123-117 count, but will be hard pressed to do it again vs
 a revenge minded team with superior talent base.   With that said,  I'm betting on a  alpha and omega situation that will see the Blazers run come to an abrupt end right where their streak began, in the Moda Center.

Golden State is 27-5 SU on the road this season with the average margin of victory coming by 7 ppg.
Warriors are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Portland.
Trail Blazers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 148-82 ATS L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 58-10 SU winning by a combined average of 8.4 ppg game , which gives credence to us laying 4 points or less in this situation.

Play on Golden State to cover

The 76ers and Miami Heat have played three times already this season with the home team holding serve in each tilt, and I'm betting the status quo remains the same after tonight. Miami has won the last six times it has faced the 76ers at home.

MIAMI is 20-8 ATS  L/28  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.

The Heat are 18-0 ATS/SU off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break with the wins coming by an average of 17 ppg.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are just 6-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

 Cleveland will be out  looking for payback when they  meet in Denver on Wednesday night for a 126-117 loss they suffered at home to the Nuggets last week. But with that said,  you don't always get what you want as the Rolling Stones song suggests.  Tonight, I'm betting the young Nuggets despite of playing last night and looking disinterested in a loss to Dallas as road chalk, will be very motivated for a bounce back at home vs a Cavaliers side I'm betting they will be up for playing against and that they actually matchup well against according to my own system vs system analysis.  Note: Nuggets are a well conditioned group and are  11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing  with no rest.

CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 4-12 ATS   versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS   versus below average defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season.

Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 32-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover

The schizophrenic Indiana Pacers are currently on a 3 game win streak,  and have  7 wins  in their L/9 and look very much like their revving up into top gear, and must be respected here on their own home floor where they have thrived going 22-11 SU this season. When they visited tonight's guests Utah back on Jan 15 the Pacers looked like they matched up well against their opponents, and despite of Jazz looking for revenge I'm betting they fall short. Note: Utah has lost 19 of their 31 road games this season.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Meanwhile, the  Jazz have won three in a row and are 15-2 in the last 17 games. But now on tired legs with this their 4th game in 7 days and  short handed as they are expected to  be  without forward Derrick Favors, who is sidelined with neck spasms, their at a disadvantage. If Favors plays I, expecting he will be less 100%. QUOTE: "We're going to have a very difficult game at Indiana," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. "We know that. They played well against us here and beat us pretty good (109-94 on Jan. 15). END QUOTE

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 44-211 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana Pacers to cover