The Bucks have not played at a top level of late as  their big star Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at less than 100% with nagging injuries as is Damian Lilliard . The bucks also remain without the services  Middleton who is sidelined. Milwaukee is just 3-6 SU/ATS  L/10 and have in the recent past had a tendency to not play hard against lower tier sides like the Memphis Grizzlies as is evident by a  5-17 ATS recored when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Meanwhile , MEMPHIS is 19-8 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons and are  30-15 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win are just 9-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. ( Bucks lost 123-97 to Miami last time out while the Grizz beat Houston by a 121-113 count.)

Memphis has won and covered their L/2 meetings at home vs Milwaukee and have covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series.

Play on Memphis to cover

Play on Memphis to cover

Sacramento played a grueling game in Phoenix last night losing by a 130-125 count  and now play a back to back games in the thin air of the Mile High City which is never a good situation. The combination of these high altitudes and the physical and emotional letdown scenario make the Denver Nuggets a viable option tonight laying lumber. It must also be noted that the Nuggets have the added motivation of  redemption and revenge on their minds for a loss they suffered to these same Kings  a few days ago by a ugly 136-105 count.  Note: Denver is 6-0 ATS L/6  as hosts vs unrested opposition .

DENVER is 23-11 ATS   when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 19-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Kings have lost three of their past four overall to fall a half-game behind the Suns in the Pacific and will now be very motivated for a bounce back effort vs a side that they have covered against in 5 straight meetings . Note: The Suns have failed to cover 5 straight at home vs .500 or better opposition. 

Phoenix won the last meeting here back in mid January by a 119-117 count and Im betting on another close game here with the points in my humble opinion being golden.

SACRAMENTO is 21-9 ATS  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 12-2 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS  in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

PHOENIX is 4-13 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  this season.PHOENIX is 5-13 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Nuggets have a few days rest under their belts and will the have the legs to be physical in transition here v vs the Bucks. Meanwhile, with the Bucks big three of Middleton, Lilliard , and  Antetokounmpo banged up with various injuries and playing at less than 100% Im betting on a lower scoring affair. Note: The Bucks last 3 home tilts vs the Nuggets have stayed on the low side of the total. 

Denver ranks 6th in the NBA in ppg allowed, and just 18th in ppg on offense.

DENVER is 12-2 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. Nuggets have gone under in 9 of their L/11 overall. – The Nuggets have gone under in 6 straight non-conference away tilts  and have gone under in 5 straight  vs . .600  or better opposition. 

MILWAUKEE is 27-14 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.Only 1 of the Bucks last 8 games has eclipsed the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 31-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Pelicans Zion Williamson will possibly miss this game or will play at less than 100% which should be a detriment to the New Orleans offense and with this being the Pelicans 4th straight road game the Bayou crew should be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun. Meanwhile. Memphis continues to be ravaged by injuries, and have now lost 8 straight and struggle on most nights to put points on the board. With that said, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed. 

 MEMPHIS is 7-0 UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored. 

Note: Pelicans took a 93-84 decision at Portland last time out. Which sets in motion this key long term  league wide trend. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 37-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 215.1 ppg. 

Play Under

The Nuggets have a few days rest under their belts and will the have the legs to be physical in transition here v vs the Bucks and control their top tier opponents . Meanwhile, with the Bucks big three of Middleton(out), Lilliard , and  Antetokounmpo banged up with various injuries and playing at less than 100% Im betting the Nuggets have the edge.

MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 vs Milwaukee as visitors. 

NBA Home underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 25-40 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver 

My projections estimate a combined score in the low to mid 230s giving us close 2 plus possession edge on the offered Total.

SACRAMENTO is 24-8 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 26-10 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons are 26-10 UNDER for a combined average of 231.3 ppg.  SACRAMENTO is 18-6 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 36-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 or more PPG) are 36-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Cleveland enters this game on a 8 game win streak behind a stingy D, that ranks 2nd in ppg allowed and 2nd in defensive rating. They go against a Raptors side playing back to back games after squeezing out a hard fought victory vs the Houston rockets last night. Considering the visiting  Cavaliers have redemption on their plate tonight for a loss they suffered on New Years day here in Toronto by a 124-121 count Im betting on a full court start to finish effort from the Cavs vs an exhausted side, playing for the 5th time in 7 days and off playing last night as mentioned above. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-57 L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to covers 

The Pelicans enter this  game ranked 9th in ppg allowed this season and 8th in defensive rating  and 17th in pace, while ranking 13thin offense. The Cajun birds   counter parts and hosts  tonight the Lakers rank 14th in offense ppg, and 20th in offensive rating, while ranking 6th in pace, which tells me that their not producing according to their tempo which bodes well here for a under bet cashing as my  projections estimate a combined score that does not beach the 231 point plateau giving us a one possession edge. 

Also the Lakers played last night so that high end pace could also slow significantly . Note: the Pelicans have gone under 7 straight times in  away tilts vs unrested conf opposition. Lakers have gone under at  home 7 of the L/8 times on back to back games and have gone under  in 6 of their L/6 at  home against the Pelicans. 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents which is the case entering this game. /the average combined ppg in these tilts rings in. at 190.8 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or better assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 33-16 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 225.3 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 227.1  ppg scored. 

Play under

New York may be without star guard Jalen Brunson (ankle) and if he does play will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, Julius Randle (shoulder), OG Anunoby (elbow) and Quentin Grimes (knee) will sit out. This Im betting forces the Knicks to be more defensive minded in transition and  to slow play down. Also on the flip-side visiting Dallas will see super star Doncic play with a face guard on because of a broken nose, and this could easily play havoc with his offensive production . I know these teams played a high scoring affair, last time they played with Dallas taking a 128-124 count but it must be noted that   NEW YORK is 7-0 UNDER in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213.2  ppg scored. Thibodeau is 35-14 UNDER  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored in those 49 games.

DALLAS is 27-14 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 22-12 UNDER  sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. 

NYK has gone under in  L7 home games  vs Dallas.

Play on the under

Miami played instate Orlando last night in a win and will now be on tired legs in a back to back situation that has also seen them play 3 games in 4 nights . Now against a  hard working group of Spurs lead by first year  phenom  Victor Wembanyama that have covered 12 of their L/18 overal the Heat will Im betting not have enough gas to get the cover here in this spot play l. 

 aNote: MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.The /series visitor is 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series and the Heat are 1-10 ATS L/11 playing at home with no rest. 

MIAMI is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a home win, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 37-63 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Utah has had a viable season, and have proven themselves over and over again, and against quality sides like the Thunder they almost always seem to bring their A game  to the court , as is evident by the following trends. UTAH is 10-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. UTAH is 22-8 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. Yes, I know that they have lost both games to Oklahoma City this season, but now with added motivation of double revenge Im betting that the magic of three will pay off for them tonight. In the recent past the Jazz have been strong bets in revenge mode, as is once again evident by the following trends. UTAH is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season  is 12-2 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Jazz have not been covering with consistency of late, losing 3 straight before a cover in a win last time out, but in past this has been a good omen for their betting backers as UTAH is 18-3 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 46-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

The Magic travel into Miami a winner in three straight and in four of the last five, while their hosts have 2 of 3 after a long drought.  The Magic took the most recent matchup on Jan. 21, grabbing 105-87 victory after the Heat won the Jan. 12 contest 99-96 and the Dec. 20 meeting 115-106. Im now betting on the hungry Heat to come out of this with a win in a cover at home where they have won the last 5 meetings against this sunshine state rivals. 

NBA Home favorites (MIAMI) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road underdogs vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are just 4-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

MIAMI is 5-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Miami to cover

The 76ers played a lazy brand of D in their L/ game vs the Brooklyn Nets losing by a 136-121 count as home favs . HC Nurse was not happy with his teams Defensive efforts,. note:Nurse is 12-1 UNDER  in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 215.8 ppg scored. Also from my perspective it was the Sixers first game back home after a grueling 5 game road trip out west and they were jet lagged. Now rested after sleeping on their own beds  I expect tonights host to come out here with alot more fire especially in defensive  transition, and this Im betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the offering. 

Also lots of key offensive cogs are expected to miss this game for both sides and if they do play see limited action as they are less 100%. 

Doncic for Dallas is questionable and Kyrie Irving is dealing with a thumb sparain and Embiid for 76ers is ruled out. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid 220s. I know Memphis has a boatload full of injuries but some of the G league players that have been called up will be more than ready to prove themselves with all out performances, that Im betting lead to a much higher scoring out put than the lines-makers expect. Meanwhile the well rested Celtics will be trying to avoid back-to-back home losses. Boston is  off one of its worst performances of the campaign, losing 114-105  at home  to the Los Angeles Lakers, who played without Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Now Im betting on all out bounce back performance that could see a merciless amount of offensive production go on the board here vs a sub par Memphis side. 

BOSTON is 25-13 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

Jenkins is 28-15 OVER  in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 55-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with a combined average 229.7 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots 27-4 OVER L/27 seasons for a conversion rate of 87% with a combined average of 231.6 ppg. 

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis

Play on the over

This might seem like a hefty  chalk selection, but it must be noted that the Hornets , have lost by DDs in 3 of their L/4 overall  at home. With that said, in this spot against a hungry Indiana team off a 3 straight losses they could find themselves as punching bags for a frustrated and redemption minded group that can light up the board in a hurry. CHARLOTTE is 4-19 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons the average ppf diff clicking in at -13.5 . Charlotte is 0-5 SU L/5 overall with the average ppg diff clicking in at -18.8. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 10-36 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. ( Indiana beat Charlotte 144-113 earlier this season. )

Play on Pacers to cover

The Hawks do not matchup well vs the visiting Golden State Warriors according to my preferred head to head power ratings data base  as is evident by the following  negative trends :ATLANTA is 0-11 ATS versus teams like the Warriors who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and 0-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The Hawks have also shown a lack of consistency and the ability able to build momentum. Last time out Atlanta upset the Suns as 3.5 dogs and grabbed the SU victory. But these kinds of efforts have not been a recipe for success for their betting backers in the recent past as they are a bankroll depleting 1-11 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Also from a SRS perspective the Warriors are the superior side, despite of their sub par record- as Golden State ranks 13th with a + 1.21 mark while the Hawks ranks 23rd with a - 2.58. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

Snyder is 8-20 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of ATLANTA.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

The Pelicans wrap up a four-game road trip on tired legs here tonight after playing Milwaukee, Boston and Houston and Im betting they will not be in any condition to run and gun  against a another tired side, that is trying to focus on playing a more solid type of D, behind french phenom Wembanyama. Advantage to the under on this offered totals number.

.NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER   after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons wih a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 23-9 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

The Thunder are superior side, in this matchup vs the visiting Hornets but because of the obvious attention OkCity get from the public the lines attached to their games are sometimes a little skewed , as is what Im betting is the case here this evening. Note: Hornets 4-0 SU/  5-0 L5 ATS  vs Thunder while Oklahoma City has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 vs .333 or less  non-conference foes. After back to back hard fought battles against Minnesota and Denver, this could easily be a letdown spot for the home side vs a sub par team Im sure they are not overly concerned with beating. 

NBA Road underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Friday nights. are 39-13 ATS L/5 seasons for. a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with Charlotte to cover 

The visiting Pacers played hard in the 2nd half against the Celtics last time out, and despite of the late rally fell by a 129-125 count, and will now be in an emotional letdown spot vs a under rated opponent that are up-trending in my power rankings and currently on a 8 game win streak.  NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS  after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.NEW YORK is  also 20-9 ATS as a favorite this season and are  14-2 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.

NEW YORK is 13-3 ATS L/16 ) versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and 12-3 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  this season.NEW YORK is 21-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.

NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 33-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game, in February games are 41-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

From a SRS perspective the NYK are the superior side. The NY Knicks rank 5th in the NBA with 5.58 mark while the Pacers rank 11th at 1.87.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Play on NY Knicks to cover

My projections estimate this total to be closer to the 231 plus giving us more than possession value on this number. 

SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 OVER  as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 237.9 ppg scored.

ORLANDO in 9 games  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 120+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a sub par team (25% or less) are 29-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 237.3 ppg going on the board.

Play over

Orlando is not a solid fav here as they are just 3-8 SU in their L/11 games. Meanwhile, their opponents the Spurs are showing improvement as they season has progressed especially from a betting perspective as is evident  by covering  11 of their L/15 trips to the hardwood and have also  captured 2 of their L/3 games SU. Considering the Magic are off a heart breaking loss to Dallas by a  131-129 Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs a young team that is gaining momentum and playing with confidence of late. Giving us an edge with the home side taking points. Spurs have covered 5 of the L/6 vs the Magic. NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after playing 4 consecutive home games are 27-14 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +0.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Spurs to cover

Cleveland against lower tier teams like Detroit have a tendency of really playing hardcore D . Note CLEVELAND is 11-2 UNDER  when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or worse) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.2 ppg while allowing their opposition just 98.9 ppg in offensive production. Also CLEVELAND is 13-3 UNDER  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored . 

Detroit last time out pulled off a huge upset vs the Oklahoma City and will now Im betting will  be in a letdown spot . Note:DETROIT in their L/13 off a double digit win as a home underdog of 6 more have scored an average of just 96.7 ppg. 

Cleveland is also off a big DD win at home  vs the LA Clippers last time out.CLEVELAND is 15-3 UNDER   in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg while once again not allowing their opposition to eclipse the 100 point plateau while allowing an average of just 98.3 ppg in offense. 

The Pistons have gone under in 6  straight vs the Cavaliers. .

The Cavs  have gone under in 12 of their L/13 vs .300 or less  opposition and have gone under  9 of their L/10 division home games  and another score that does not eclipse the total is what Im betting will be a high probability outcome.

Play under

The Celtics have revenge on board for a 133-131 loss they suffered to Indiana on Jan 8th just a couple of days after beating up on the Pacers by a 118-101 count in the same road venue. Now Im betting on a very focused effort by the Celtics here at home where they have won 9 of the L/10 meetings vs the Pacers. Note: G Haliburton expected to return to the court tonight for the Pacers , but I doubt he is ready to play alot of minutes after missing a substantial amount of time. 

Boston is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games at home.  

Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, on Tuesday nights are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

The Nets are 5-17 SU in their past 22 games since Dec. 14 and 3-12 SU in their last 15 and are fade material . Utah cruised to a 17-point home win over Brooklyn on Dec.18 and have proven to me they matchup well against the Nets. Utah is 12-5 SU L/17 vs Eastern Conference teams and 7-3 L/10 overall. Advantage Jazz.

UTAH is 13-4 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. UTAH is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH is 7-0 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season. UTAH is 14-1 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Hardy is 16-2 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of UTAH.

BROOKLYN is 3-11 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season. BROOKLYN is 1-9 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 11-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 14-45 L/27 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah 

The Heat have lost 6 straight and are fade material in their current form.  I know the Suns have lost 2 straight, but previous this mini skid had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 SU and have been highly competitive for some time now.  MIAMI is 17-32 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

The visitor has covered 4 of the L/5 and 6 of the L/7 without rest . (Suns lost last night, but did not play hard in a lackluster effort scoring just 98 points at Orlando and should be fresh for this tilt despite of this being a back to back affair )

Play on Suns to cover

Clippers are off a dominating DD victory vs the Boston Celtics on the road last time out and Im betting they will be a in letdown situation here tonight vs a Cleveland side on a few days rest . The Cavs are  viable bets against above. 600 opposition like the Clippers this season as is evident by cashing a 6 of their L/7 and get the nod again. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - off an upset win of 15 points or more as a road underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 7-37 L/27 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

LA CLIPPERS are 6-14 ATS   after playing a road game this season.

CLEVELAND is 15-7 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.CLEVELAND is 30-16 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons at home.

Play on Cleveland to cover

My projections place this total at no higher than 236 which gives a full plus possession value edge on this number. 

DETROIT is 20-8 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 UNDER   off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Thunder have gone under in 6 of their L/9. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against a struggling team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games are 44-14 UNDER 27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DETROIT) - struggling  team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 47-23 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games when playing Oklahoma City.The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City.

Play under

The Pelicans played last night  and playing strong transitional  defense  will now be a problem against a run and gun Milwaukee side Im betting will turn this into a more wide open tilt out of necessity for both sides. Milwaukee is also playing back to back, and the same holds true for them. Note: NO has gone over in 5 straight with  no rest vs non-conference  opposition like the Bucks and overall have gone over the offered number in a  13 of their L/14 tilts vs Milwaukee  .  The Bucks are  6-0 OVER L/6 Saturday home games. MILWAUKEEs L/39 games  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 247 ppg scored. The two most recent meeting in this series have eclipsed this totals offering . Milwaukee scored just 100 points last night in a lazy 112-100 loss to the Cavs which will have them primed and ready to bounce back with a big offensive performance which they are very capable of having.MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 248.3 ppg scored.

Play over

The 76ers had a 5 game win streak end last time out against the Indiana Pacers , but now Im betting on a bounce back situation i for the Sixers in the Mile High city this afternoon. ( Denver lost to the Sixers in Philadelphia 126-121 on Jan 16th and are just 0-10 ATS L/10 in this series looking for revenge from a single digit defeat) 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and from a SRS perspective are ranked 3rd in the NBA while the Nuggets are ranked 7th. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

DENVER is 2-10 ATS   after playing 2 consecutive road games this season after a 5 game road trip could find it difficult getting acclimated to home cooking again giving us an edge with the visitor.

Philly has covered their L/2 visits here in Colorado.

Play on Philadelphia 76ers. to cover

Washington has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Detroit earlier in this campaign, but this time around will have a diff coach patrolling the sidelines for them as they look to ramps a more physical type of defensive game plan.Meanwhile,  the Pistons are of just  their fifth win of the season on Wednesday, the Charlotte Hornets 113-106 but consistency has not been their calling card this season, and do not have back to back victories this season and a rinse repeat situation is highly probable. Advantage Wizards. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.WASHINGTON is 16-4 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons including 4-0 L/4 in Motown. 

Play on Wizards to cover

Early Afternoon play will see these teams most likely starting slow, thus giving us an edge on a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers expect. Also from the wizards perspective they will be implementing a more physical defensive game plan going forward."Defense has to be our calling card," Washington new HC Keefe said. "We have to see improvement on that. That's going to be my first step. And I've always thought that. Basic tenets of the NBA -- I like unselfish basketball; I like spacing; I like making the simple play. But our focus right now, for us, is we've got to see growth defensively." Note: Unseld Jr in his L/42 road games after a non-conference game as the coach of WASHINGTON has seen a  combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. (Wash played Utah last time out)

DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 13-3 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. 

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 120 points or more are 52-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 221.6 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

Oklahoma City is playing at a high level right now , winning four straight and 14 of their L/17 overall. They enter directly off a 140-114 beatdown vs San Antonio last time time out which is a good omen for us, backing them here tonight as the Thunder are a bankroll expanding 12-0 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and  7-0 ATS  after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been inconsistent and have alternated wins and losses while not winning two in row since Jan 10th They did get the victory last time out putting up 154 points vs Utah while allowing 124 points. Note: The Pelicans have allowed 123 or more points in 4 of their L/6 and against this type of explosive offensive side they could be very vulnerable in this spot play considering their current defensive down trend. Oklahoma City in their L/27 as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons have seen an  average ppg diff clicking in at +0.2. 

The series visitor is 6-0 ATS L/6 and Im betting this trend stays intact tonight. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-6 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

From a SRS perspective theThunder rank 2nd in the NBA with a 8.26 mark while the Pelicans ranks 7th with a 4.80. When factoring in a 3 point obligatory home court advantage the Thunder should actually be short road favs. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 52-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Clippers are off a hard fought battle vs the Lakers last time out getting the win . Than they hopped on a plane to travel out east to start a road trip . This Im betting has the Clippers in an emotional and physical letdown state vs a  side they maybe over looking. Also with the Celtics on board, for tomorrow night for the Clippers they could easily be caught looking ahead to that tilt leaving them vulnerable in this spot. Note: Clippers are 0-5 ATS L/5 after playing the Lakers. Note: The Clippers beat the Raptors back on Jan 10 126-120 .  TORONTO is 18-8 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-21 ATS  when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 97-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Raptors to covers 

NY enters this home game with alot of momentum as is evident by winning 10 of their L/12 SU including 4 straight and have an advantage here tonight vs a top tier Denver side that is on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road tilt in 9 days. 

NEW YORK is 10-0 ATS  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.2. 

DENVER is 5-13 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.DENVER is 5-13 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), dominant rebounding team (5.5 or better  reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 38-12 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Knicks to cover

These two teams the Pacers and the 76ers have a history of playing high scoring affairs with the last 5  meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 265.6 ppg scored. According to my projections this game once again sets up be a high scoring affair. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 242.8 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER  versus sub defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

The Pacers lost to the Nuggets last time out by a 114-109 count as hosts.  INDIANA is 8-0 OVER off a home loss this season with a combined average of 264.4 ppg scored.

 INDIANA is 14-3 OVER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 245.3 ppg scored.

Play over

The Spurs have been competitive lately vs what are some over bloated lines that are being offered by the lines-makers as they have now covered 9 of their L/11. However, now as the market has adjusted we now have what Im betting is a viable road fav to back here against the Spurs. I know the Thunder played last night, but they are a well conditioned side and are explosive offensively. The Thunder smashed the the visiting Spurs the last time they met 123-87 back in December, and while it looks like the young men from Texas have improved since then are still over matched here according to my projections. Thunder are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series and 4-1 ATS with no rest. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-16 ATS  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-9 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY in tneir 27 games as favorites this season have seen average ppg diff of +11.5. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, sub par team overall, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 23-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The gloves are coming off here tonight as the Clippers look for redemption and revenge for a pair of losses to the Lakers earlier this season. Im betting we see the Clippers at their merciless best.

Clippers are 9-0 ATS as  the home side in this  inter City series when taking the court with same-season double revenge-exact.

Designated Road underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 6-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clippers to cover

Atlanta had a 3 game win streak come to an abrupt end last time out vs Cleveland by a 116-95 count. Meanwhile, their hosts Sacramento are on a four game losing streak and very far from being in top form, and in their current state according to my projections are being over rated on this line, giving us an edge with the underdog. Atlanta is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Sacramento.

Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home. Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento.

NBA team (ATLANTA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 37-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 33-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Orlando is on tired legs after playing instate rivals the Miami Heat last night, winning by a lopsided 105-87 score as they played a strong all out two way game. Now in a letdown state Im betting a revenge minded Cleveland side, looking for redemption  for a DD loss here back in December by a 104-94 count to have the edge Note:. The Cavs are on a 7 game win streak, after a DD win vs Atlanta last time out. 
CLEVELAND is 23-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.  Bickerstaff is 11-2 ATS  in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more as the coach of CLEVELAND.CLEVELAND is 18-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in same season revenge this season. 

NBA  Favorites (CLEVELAND) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) are 136-80 ATS L/27 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

San Antonio is ranked 28th in the NBA in offensive rating, and averaging just 109.4 ppg on the road this season. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in defensive rating, and Im betting they keep the inconsistent offense of the 76ers in control mode here helping us keep our under projection from being eclipsed.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home. San Antonio is 3-7-1 O/U L/11 overall. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 48-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 190 points or less are 123-70 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

On Friday, the Nets put forward  one of their best efforts of the campaign, when they earned a 130-112 win over the Los Angeles Lakers two nights after  they embarrassed themselves by allowing 11-point lead to dissolve  and than  losing in the final second on a shot by Anfernee Simons in Portland. Now with a little bit more confidence and knowing they cannot fall asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a top tier side like the Clippers, Im betting we see them at their competitive best. Note: With the Clippers on 4 days rest, Im betting they will show rust and take time to get rolling here which will aid us in getting the cover. Clippers are 1-9 L/10 with 4 days rest .

Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS  L/10 vs the Clippers. 

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - off a home win, in January games are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Nets to cover

The Minnesota Timberwolves will get their 5th victory in  a row when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night in Minneapolis. The Wolves are off a 118-103 win vs Memphis last time out. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It must also be noted that the Wolves have revenge on board for a loss they suffered to the Thunder, back on Dec 26th this season, in a ugly 129-106 beatdown. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS L/6 revenging a 20 point or more same season loss. 

The Thunder took out the Jazz last time out, which has not been a good omen for this franchise in the past as they have lost 9 straight SU after taking out Utah. That was the Thunders 2nd straight high altitude event, after playing Denver previous to that and now Im betting after those exhausting affairs will be in a letdown spot here vs a redemption minded top tier opponent. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots are 28-5 L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wolves to cover

Two bottom feeders the San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets will meet for the second time in just over a week Friday  . In that recent meeting The Spurs smashed the Hornets  135-99    on Jan. 12, Now the lines-makers expect a highly inconsistent side tthat has lost 17 of their L/18 overall including 6 straight to bounce back. While anything is possible I view this as a unlikely scenario according to my projections. It must also be noted that previous to losing and failing to cover their L/2 vs Atlanta and Boston the Spurs had been playing completive ATS hoops covering 6 straight and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash for us tonight.Clifford is 16-31 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of CHARLOTTE.

NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 62-108 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Charlotte is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against San Antonio. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Indiana  had won 9 of 10 before their current 2 game losing slide in the high altitudes of Utah  (Salt Lake City) and Denver . Im betting they bounce back here  and are very competitive  vs a Sacramento Kings side that my power rankings suggest they match up well and that  has lost 3 straight games.   INDIANA is 10-1 AT  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.  INDIANA is 15-6 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts this season. 

Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.

SACRAMENTO is 2-11 ATS  in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NBA team (INDIANA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more 31-75 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Toronto played last night in a DD win vs Miami and will now be on tired legs vs a Chicago team in revenge mode for a DD loss they suffered to the Raptors earlier this season. The Raps were playing better hoops back in November when these teams played , and on the flip-side Chicago has turned things up since then . NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a sub par team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just are 59-113 ATS L/27 seasons, for a go against  66% conversion rate for bettors. TORONTO is 9-22 L/31 ATS off a blowout win of 20 points or more as an underdog . CHICAGO is 22-11 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

 Raptors  have lost  9 of the L/13 SU in this series vs the Bulls  and are  0-4 ATS without rest.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

Dallas has won 10 of their L/11 visits to LA to play the Lakers and have won their L/4 trips here vs LAL. Even is Luke Doncic does not play tonight Im betting the The Mavericks who have won two of the three games that  Doncic missed with a sprained right ankle, including a 125-120 victory at home Monday over the New Orleans Pelicans, have enough fire power to hang with a inconsistent group of Lakers . It must also be noted that the Lakers  just pulled off  what in my opinion was an upset last time out vs Oklahoma City .  That was LAs  only 4th fourth victory and their L/15 games. They will now be in a emotional and physical letdown state after that win making them vulnerable as favs.LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Mavs to cover

When these two teams Cleveland and Milwaukee played in the last week in December they combined in for 230 points in a 119-111 Bucks  home victory.Im now projecting similar output here based on current pace and overall data. None of the L/5 meetings in this series has eclipsed this Totals offering. 

MILWAUKEE is 33-18 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored.

CLEVELAND L/91 games versus sub standard  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% plus over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored. CLEVELAND L/104 home games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored. Only 2 of the Cavaliers L/9 games have eclipsed the total.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 55-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 61-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

  MIAMI seems to always overlook sub par opponents or the lines-makers just simply consistently over rate them in this spot as they  are a bankroll depleting 4-17 ATS  when playing against a below 500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons .With that said and according to my projections the Heat are weak favs here on the road vs a revenge minded squad that they beat back in early Dec by a 112 -103 count. Note:TORONTO is 19-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Also a couple of days ago the Heat went into Brooklyn and pulled of a hard fought 96-95 win and  will now be in a letdown spot after that physical gritty affair. Heat are 0-5 ATS L/5 after playing the Nets. 

Play on the Raptors to cover

Analysis to follow thank you for your patience 

NBA PHILADELPHIA is 26-8 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making  48% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons.  PHILADELPHIA is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite this season.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

 The Lakers enter into Oklahoma City and beat the Thunder 129-120 back in late December and now the Thunder will be primed to get some pay back. OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Also  Oklahoma City has great momentum entering this tilt as they have notched victories in nine of its past 11 games and are off a 112-100 win vs the Orlando Magic at home Saturday for the Thunder's fourth straight victory . Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum having lost two straight and 6 of their L/8 overall. Advantage Thunder.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-9 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging  23 or more assists/game this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 ATS  versus very good shooting teams - making 48%  or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 points or more 2 straight games are 25-5 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover /win

The Pacers played yesterday in a loss to the Nuggets in the Mile High City and now on tired legs in another high altitude game will be vulnerable to another defeat vs a Utah side with revenge on board  for a  134-118  beatdown the last time they played . UTAH is 11-1 ATS   in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season with the average ppg diff registering at +9.1. 

Pacers  3-14 ATS L/17 non conference battles and are fade material in this spot play in Salt Lake City tonight. UTAH is 8-0 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average ppg diff clicking at +11. 

Play on the Jazz to cover

The Warriors have lost seven of 10 and the Grizzlies and are not viable favorites even against a short handed Grizzlies side .

GOLDEN STATE is 4-19 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS   as a favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 5-19 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. 

 NBA  Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 77-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

MEMPHIS is 7-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover 

Luka Doncic (Ankle) - Doubtful [01/10/2024] - Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury and is unlikely to take the court for the Mavericks. This one headline alone has me taking the road  short favorite . Even with their super star in the lineup they would have been underdogs according to my projections and were out played on Saturday by the Pelicans 118-108 and rinse and repeat situation is in play tonight. Even if Doncic  plays and is less than 100%  this  makes Dallas vulnerable. NBA Road favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 33-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. NBA Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 28-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. DALLAS is 2-11 ATS  in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Kidd is 4-15 ATS  in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite as the coach of DALLAS.

Play on Pelicans to cover

Portland is in rebuild not doubt about it, and don't seem much better than a new franchise type team . When looking at this set up its interesting to note that this seems like a total mismatch as  Blazers were blasted  108-88 at Phoenix a couple of weeks ago and are off a complete alley way beatdown  after that via a  139-77 smash down at Oklahoma City where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and than another DD beatdown last time out vs Minnesota . However, Im now betting that total embarrassment  will have the  Blazers  ready compete here in redemption mode at home. Also it will be easy for the Suns to overlook tonights bottom feeder, and look for defacto night off. This situation gives credence to us getting value with the underdog and bankroll expansion. 

PHOENIX is 0-10 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season. PHOENIX is 4-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 55-93 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Blazers to cover

Im betting on a high scoring affair tonight, with Milwaukee on tired legs after playing last night  and highly likely to not look good in transition on defense.  The Bucks inconsistent defensive play vs a redemption minded Kings side off a ugly offensive outing last time out should help dictate the pace. Sacramento ranks 20th in defense, and 9th in the league in offense, while Milwaukee  ranks 2nd in offensive output and 24th in defense ppg allowed. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and the Kings 11th. These teams have gone over the total  21 straight times  . The Bucks have eclipsed the total  11-0 straight times with the Cavaliers on deck next and are 17-4 OVER  as non-conference home chalk of 5 points or more on the opening line  and have gone over  4- L/5  with  no rest this season. My projections also estimate a 121 or more point offensive output from the Kings . Note:MILWAUKEE is 15-4 OVER   when they allow 121 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 254.7 ppg scored.  

NBA t eams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 212 -60 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Miami is off a off a hard fought win vs Orlando on Friday night by a 99-96 count and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot.  Also the MIAMI has not been a reliable choice for bettors as they are just  3-15 AT  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is also  16-34 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Advantage Hornets to cover.

CHARLOTTE is 33-17 ATS   when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Hornets to cover

I know the Magic played last night in a 99-96 loss to instate rivals Miami , covering as 3.5 point dogs, but this is a very well conditioned team that must not be underestimated in their ability to compete on back to back nights. 

ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, in January games are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

NBA Road underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 25-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Orlando Magic to cover

Heats Tyler Hero is not 100% and the other two key cogs Lowry and Butler are expected to miss this game, giving the hungry young Magic an advantage getting points  tonight in their instate rivalry. Orlando is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Miami is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home. 

ORLANDO is 17-5 ATS  sub standard  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse  this season. ORLANDO is 35-20 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 26-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover

Philadelphia despite of a big output last time out vs Atlanta in a 139-132 loss have  been inconsistent offensively as is evident by failing to eclipse the 92 point offensive  threshold  twice in their L/5 games with 4 of those games remaining on the low side of the offered number with the average combined score clicking in at 224.8 ppg . After that huge output last time out Im betting now on immediate regression by the 76ers offense, vs a Sacramento side, that plays a strong defensive brand of hoops on the road, where they have seen 11 of 17 games fail to eclipse the total with a combined average of 227 ppg have been scored. Advantage under.

SACRAMENTO is 22-7 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 15-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with 224.4 ppg going on the board. SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 57-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

These teams have consistently played high scoring games in recent meetings .Indiana took a 150-116 decision the last time they met on Jan 5th and previous to that on Nov 12th of 2023 this season they combined for more than 300 points in a 157-152 battle that Indiana also won. Also in their final meeting last season these two take no prisoner offenses and forget about-it defenses  took part in a 143-130 Atlanta victory.  Im betting they continue to conduct all out attacks on each other with their defensive transitional  systems will be put  in down mode. Think all star game. Note: The L/4 games here in Atlanta has gone over.ATLANTA is 8-0 OVER ) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 255 ppg scored.INDIANA is 21-8 OVER   versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 254.4 ppg scored. Rinse and repeat over in play.

Play over

 Dallas, fell asleep at the proverbial wheel last time out and had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 120-103 defeat at the  the hands  Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. Im betting the Mavs had a emotional and physical letdown after taking out the Minnesota  Wolves in their previous tilt.  Now after that embarrassing effort Im expecting huge bounce back effort here at home tonight vs the red hot NY Knicks. 

DALLAS is 19-8 ATS   after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kidd is 35-19 ATS off a loss against a division rival in all games he has coached since 1996.

DALLAS is 24-11 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Road teams (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 85-140 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after playing 4 consecutive home games are 25-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover

Two evenly matched bottom feeders go head to head tonight in a game that favors the home dog. Detroit ranks 30th in SRS with a -10.65 while , San Antonio ranks 28th with a -10.09 . Factoring in home court advantage of about 4 points  for Detroit the wrong side  is favored here, thus taking points according to my projections makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

SAN ANTONIO is 16-32 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Detroit to cover

Charlotte just upset Sacramento last week on the road by a 110-104 count which ended a 11 game losing run. Now Im betting on the  Kings to be  out looking for  revenge and also redemption for a ugly effort at home vs the Pelicans game before last  as favs losing by a 133-100 count and then having to make a big run last night to get by Motown .  The Kings need to save face  should in all probabilities have them playing a killer game with little pity despite of playing last night.   

SACRAMENTO is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.. SACRAMENTO is 17-5 ATS  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 29-14 ATS   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more. Brown is 11-1 ATS   in road games versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or worse as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

Lakers often injured Davis is expected to miss this game and LeBron James is questionable. After upsetting the clippers last time out I wont be surprised if James sits especially considering they play a non conference visitor that is below .500 on the season. Meanwhile, Toronto has covered 5 of their L/7 overall and 4 of their L/6 on the road and  are off a upset win vs Golden State last time out by DDs and according to my projections more than capable of covering this spread here tonight with or without James in the lineup for the Lakers. Note: The Raptors are 7-1 SU/ATS L/7 on the road vs the Lakers. 

NBA Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - in non-conference games, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more are 22-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Memphis has played mostly competitive ball of late winning 7 of their L/11 overall and have cashed 5 of their L/7 road games overall ATS. Im betting the Grizzlies will be motivated here tonight to get revenge for a 120-113 loss at home to the Mavs back in December.  MEMPHIS is 44-28 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile, the Mavs despite of three straight wins ( 2 vs the Blazers) are a side that according to my projections is being very over rated in this game . After upsetting the Wolves last time out Im betting on them being in a letdown spot and vulnerable to being upset vs a under rated side off two straight road underdog wins vs the Suns and Lakers. 

DALLAS is 4-13 ATS  in home games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 20-36 ATS   after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 17-29 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, in January games are 19-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

NYK is running hot right now having won 4 straight games with 3 of the DD variety. Meanwhile, Portland despite a upset win vs Brooklyn last time out is highly inconsistent. With the Knicks knowing about the Blazers upset of their cross town rivals will be not over looking this opponent and ready to run and gun their way to victory . NYK has already beaten the Blazers by DDs on the road this season, and now a rinse and repeat scenario is on board vs a exhausted side that is playing their 5th straight road game. 

Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Utah is playing a better brand of competitive ball of late, thanks in part to more consistent defensive efforts and balanced pace. Here tonight against what must be perceived a s a superior side that they cannot run and gun against with success, Im betting on the Jazz being very stringent and transition which will result in a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers are estimating. The Jazz have seen 5 of their L/6 games stay on the low side of the offered total. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has seen 4 of their L/5 stay under the total. The L/2 meetings here in Milwaukee has stayed under the total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 46-12 UNDER L/5 seasons fof a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 91-49 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

This is Oklahoma City Thunder 3rd straight road game in 5 days and Im betting they will be on tired legs here vs their underdog opponent the Washington Wizards. The Thunder lost the fiorst two games of this road trip, and previous to that played Denver, Minnesota and Boston and fatigue could be an issue here. Advantage Washington to cover

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 16-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate. 

NBA Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 7-24 ATS L/27 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover

Detroit thanks to their ugly 3-32 SU record are  cashing of late brining home the cash to their backers in 5 of their L/6 overall. Thanks to their very bad season huge DD lines are being offered up to the public . Thanks to those market abnormalities their has been value backing the faltering men from Motown. With the Nuggets playing on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, Im betting they wont have the enthusiasm or legs to put forward a big effort vs a side I'm sure their over looking. Advantage Detroit on the line.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 5-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 69-34 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The New Orleans Pelicans suffered their most lopsided home loss in more than two months in their last game and will be primed for a big bounce back effort vs a side they matchup well against vs Kings side that  my power rankings suggest the Pelicans  match up well against. The Pelicans are a perfect  3-0  against the Kings this season, having won in New Orleans 129-93 on Nov. 20 and 117-112 on Nov. 22, then taking them out  in an in-season tournament quarterfinal game Dec. 4 in Sacramento. Rinse and repeat now on board.

SACRAMENTO is 7-18 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS versus sub par  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 75-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pelicans to cover

 Atlanta was off a ugly 150-116 loss in Indiana to the Pacers on Friday and now after that embarrassment will be ready to play an all out game vs a Orlando side that after a fast start to their season having lost 5 of their L/7 and 11 of their L/16 overall SU. 

NBA team (ATLANTA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

ATLANTA is 7-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons and have won 4 of the L/4 meetings here in the Magic kingdom. 

NBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (118 PPG or more ) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game are 34-9 L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Philadelphia lost to NYK last time 128- 92 while Utah lost to Boston 126-97. Now Two teams off blowout losses last time out, will be out for redemption here and a more focused effort in transition which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair.

Philadelphia in their L/34 games PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER   after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 45-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play under

Houston has played their best hoops at home this season winning 14 of 19 games and won at home last time out for their 2nd straight win.  HOUSTON is 15-3 ATS  after playing a home game this season. Udoka is 12-1 ATS off a home win as the coach of HOUSTON. Meanwhile, the visotrs tonight are on a down mode at the moment after a   117-106 home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, their third loss in five games. Current momentum and their top tier level of play at home has me recommending we take the hosts to cover.

NBA  Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after playing 4 consecutive home games are 24-13 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Houston to cover

The Suns are shinning bright right now after 4 straight wins and have the ability to pull off the upset vs the red hot LA Clippers tonight in the desert. I know that Kevin Durant is expected this miss this game but Bradly Beal has really stepped up his play and feels confident taking a leading role for the Suns. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with the Phoenix Suns to cover

Both these sides enter this game in top form. The Thunder have won four straight  games and seven of their last eight, entering Tuesday's matchup with the second-fewest losses in the conference. Oklahoma City is 22-9 this season. Meanwhile,   Boston has won 11 of its past 12. So this will be a clash of the titans, but Im betting the home court advantage for the Thunder will be the difference maker in a place where the home side has won the two most recent meetings.

BOSTON is 1-10 ATS  in road games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-3 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS   in non-conference games this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS L/4 meeting in this series.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The Bucks are back home after a four-game road trip, most recently defeating the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday by a 119-111 final and have won 9 of their L/10 overall SU. Meanwhile, Indiana has won 3 straight, and before that run started they lost 6 of 7 Considering the Bucs play their best hoops at home where they are 16-1 SU while covering 12 of those games it will be an easy decision to back the home side that has one more day rest as compared to the visitors. . Indiana can really light up that score-bard and thats their opus operandi  but  Milwaukee is equally explosive offensively.  These are the top two offensive teams in the NBA in points per game (126.6 and 125, respectively) and offensive rating (122.3 and 121, respectively). the difference maker comes on the defensive end of the floor via efficiency ratings - Indiana ranks 28th (120.9) in defensive  while the Bucks rank 16th (116) . Note: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions.

MILWAUKEE is 55-42 ATS (as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 20-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors .

NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 23-53  ATS L/27 seasons for a  go against 70%  conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 55-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Bucks to cover

My projections estimate a combined score in the high 220s or very low 230 fange giving us a substantial edge on an under bet cashing according to to those projections. 

Memphis ranks 10th in the NBA in Defensive rating and have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored in in their 13 games as hosts with 9 of their 13 games at home staying under the total. 

SACRAMENTO is 33-13 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 14-3 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 21-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 15-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 44-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Suns have won two consecutive tilts to move above .500 but have been major underachievers so far this season. Phoenix lost nine of 12 games before the consecutive victories and according to my power rankings are being over rated in this spot play at home. Note: PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS  in home games this season. From a matchup perspective the Magic look good here as they are  13-4 ATS  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season. ORLANDO is 32-18 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, PHOENIX is 2-16 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 0-7 ATS  after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. Advantage Orlando. 

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with the Orlando Magic 

 This is the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights and they are coming off an exhausting 4 game road trip that saw them lose their last two tilts. Sacramento is off a road win vs Atlantan last time out and has momentum entering this game . Im betting it takes some time for the Grizzlies to acclimated to home cooking and for the Kings to grab the win. 

 SACRAMENTO is 19-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 23-10 ATS ( when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 37-21 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Boston's most recent win was a 120-118 slugfest at home against Toronto. The truth of the matter was the Celtics looked a little tired after playing all out winning hoops for what has been an extended period of time which believe it or not can be exhausting both physically and mentally. With this being the Celtics 3rd game in 4 nights the young Spurs who have been fairly competitive at home could easily stay within this offered underdog number. The Spurs have procured a -8.2 ppf at home this season. 

BOSTON is 15-27 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 4-23 L/27 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - a very good team (+7 or more  PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 6-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Spurs to cover

Dallas super star Doncic has been on a tear  of late, recently putting up  39-points and a  50-point explosion Christmas Day in Phoenix in a victory versus the Suns. He was  given Thursday off on the second night of a back-to-backs and should be fresh and ready to run and gun tonight against the over rated and inconsistent Golden State. 

Kidd is 22-10 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of DALLAS.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, on Saturday games are 47-69 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mavs to cover

NYK has lost 3 of their L/4 games , but this is a resilient well conditioned side that is more than capable of bouncing back. Note: NEW YORK is 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. This will be the Knicks 3rd game in 4 nights, but they are one of the NBAs best conditioned sides as is evident by HC Thibodeau  26-12 ATS mark  in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days as the coach of NEW YORK. We all know the Pacers can shoot the lights out both their defense is atrocious.  With that said it must be noted that NEW YORK is 8-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  this season.NEW YORK is also 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.( lost in Orlando 118-107 - going under a total of 226) Meanwhile, Im betting Indiana after two straight underdog wins on the road could easily be in a letdown spot here which seems to not be uncommon for them as they are  5-17 ATS L/22 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog . INDIANA is also  0-8 ATS  after a division game this season.  ( Took out  division foe Chicago 120-114 last time out) 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 25-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Pistons continue their ugly season tonight against the Raptors as they try to grab a victory for the first time in 28 games . Despite of not winning they have been mostly competitive and played a great game vs the Celtics last time out after taking a big lead.Despite playing an grueling heart breaking game in a overtime contest on Thursday, the Pistons will be the fresher team on Saturday vs a Toronto side playing in back to back games. Im not saying the Pistons grab the win here, but taking points with them is a viable option. note: The Pistons have grabbed the cash the L/3 times they have faced the Raptors at home in Motown.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) - after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games are 25-12 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams (DETROIT) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

The Denver Nuggets,  would be riding a 10-game winning streak if not for Oklahoma City. The last time these teams played the young never say die Thunder came out on top and their ability to be relentless will be the difference maker tonight. 

The Thunder rallied to win at Denver on Dec. 16, and now they return there for another matchup against the reigning champions on Friday night.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS  in all games this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 41-12 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Thunder to cover

Atlanta enters this home game against Sacramento dumping money for their betting backers at an astounding rate , as is evident by cashing just 2 of their L/15 overall including SU losses in 9 of their L/12 overall. I know Atlanta has won 4 straight meetings in this series but that was than and this is now. Advantage Kings 

SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  over the last 2 seasons

ATLANTA is 2-13 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season.ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite this season. ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 8-32 L/5 seasons for. a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after allowing 115 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 22-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento 

  Cleveland came through in the crunch in  a hard-fought battle Wednesday, taking down the Dallas Mavericks on the road 113-110 after needing to come-back from a 20-point deficit. Entering this game with a big scoop of confidence Im betting the Cavs give the visiting Milwaukee Bucks all they can handle. Cleveland has won the L/4 meetings in this series a at home and have an edge taking points at home.

CLEVELAND is 28-14 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season, after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 31-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The Bulls according to my power rankings matchup well here at home vs a Indiana team that pays little attention to D. Note: CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48%  or more this season. Right now the Bulls are a ATM machine for their betting backers cashing 11 of their L/13 ATS and are off a underdog victory vs the Atlanta Hawks last time out. That good news considering they are a bankroll expanding CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS  off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons .  HC Donovan is 18-2 ATS  off an upset win as a home underdog as the coach of CHICAGO.CHICAGO is also 7-0 ATS  after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. The Pacers won last time out against Houston, but that was only their 3rd win in 9 games, and Im betting against them here tonight, mostly because of their lack of defensive discipline, something the Bulls have in spades. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (118 or more  PPG) are 40-8 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover 

Cleveland has played very competitive ball and according to my projections matchup well here vs a Dallas Mavs side that  is 15-28 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and just 10-24 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Considering Cleveland is well rested after last playing Saturday in a 109-95 win at Chicago, they look to have an edge here taking points vs a side that played Christmas day in a win vs the Suns on the road - behind Doncics 50 point out put. Regression from the Mavs should be expected. 

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off a win against a division rival, in December games are 45-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cleveland  to cover

The Chicago Bulls have shown alot of consistency and competitive recently winning 8 of their L/12 SU while covering 10 of those games. They did lose to Cleveland late time out but are a resilient bunch that Im betting will bounce back vs a Atlanta side that does not travel particularly well as is evident by their 8-9 away record that has seen them fail to cover 11 of those tilts and 10 of their L/14 overall SU(home/away). With the Hawks expected to be  without forward De'Andre Hunter who will undergo a non-surgical procedure and already missing key component Johnson, Trae Young becomes the sole arbiter of the Hawks, and despite his prowess is not a one man team. Advantage Chicago. 

ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS  in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA team (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (118 or more  PPG) are 39-8 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

Boston owns the No.1  SRS in the NBA with. a 11.50 mark, while the Lakers are ranked 20th in SRS at -0.13. Even with home court advantage there is a clear cut edge for the top tier Celtics telling me this line is tainted based on Lakers brand name recognition. I know the Lakers grabbed a elite  win vs the Thunder last time out on the road, but history does not bode well for the aging Lakers to put out another big time effort in this spot, as HC  Ham is 6-19 ATS  off a road win as the coach of LA LAKERS.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

BOSTON is 19-9 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Boston team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - after allowing 115 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight game are 39-10 L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Celtics to cover

After winning the in season tournament the Lakers old legs look like they have cramped up as is evident by losing 5 of their L/6 including four straight. Meanwhile, the Thunder are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, and just off ending the Clippers extended win streak while  having won 5 of their L/6 and three straight and will be primed to take down the visitors tonight as they are one of the best conditioned sides in the league. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-5 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-9 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Thunder to cover

 Atlanta rallied late for a 134-127 road win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday and have momentum and confidence entering this game against inconsistent Miami side. that is  15-33 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is  also 18-32 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.Friday's game will be the second of the season between the teams, as the Heat won in Atlanta 117-109 on Nov. 11 and now Im betting on a top tier revenge effort from a Hawks side that grabbed a victory here the last time they visited. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

Orlando has lost 5 of their L/6 overall and  scored 111 points or fewer in the five losses -- less than its season average of 113 per game. Im betting their offensive woes continue tonight against the Bucs , and because their struggling will press hard defensively in transition, this Im betting  will equate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect according to my projections. 

ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ORLANDO/ MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Under 

The Clippers enter this game in red hot form winning 8 straight games, but Dallas is the type of team that can make like difficult for even the hottest of teams. Los Angeles split two games with Dallas earlier this season, but what stood out to me in those games, is not the Clippers star Leonard, but the Mavs top man Doncic  who averaged 37 points in the two games against the Clippers. He had 44 points on 17-of-21 shooting in the Dallas victory and 30 points in the loss only because he shot 1 of 8 form downtown. Im betting bhe will be key tonight in a Mavs cover. 

LA CLIPPERS are 1-10 ATS  after playing a road game this season.(Beat Indiana last time out by a 151-127 count and now Im betting on major regression)

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 38-24 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Utah seems to reserve it best hoops for top tier teams like Cleveland. Note: UTAH is 37-17 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. After a top tier effort in a  125-108 underdog win vs the Brooklyn last time out Im betting that the momentum of that victory has them playing with confidence here tonight in Cleveland. UTAH is 14-1 ATS  off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog. 

Utah is 3-1 L/4 and the play of Sexton who has averaged 25.6 points and 4.0 assists in the past five games has been key the Jazz' recent resurgence. Im betting he will alos be to us getting the cover in this spot play situation. 

Utah is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Cleveland. Utah is also  8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland. Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - struggling  team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 125 points or more are 61-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

The Suns run the 27th ranked pace in the NBA , and rank 13th in defensive rating efficiency. Meanwhile, the Blazers rank 24th in pace and 29th in offensive scoring. With Portland on tired legs as they play their 3 rd game in 4 nights, Im expecting their pace and aggression to be at less than optimal . Meanwhile the Suns after an extended home stand will come out here a little bit more rested and will be ready to push down with a more aggressive defensive stance, which is their modus operandi - and that should translate to slower tilt as is projected by both teams pace numbers and tendencies.

PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER  as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 43-17 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 221.9 ppg. 

Play under

There is  enough calculated mathematical value here for us to a take a flyer on the points.  Make no mistake the Spurs are losing team, but this line value is something that cannot be ignored. 

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 19-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Spurs to cover