There is now way Oklahoma City can compete in a run and gun affair and that is why Im betting they do everything with their power to slow this game down, which Im betting results in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 232.5  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a dog after they had 5 or fewer offensive boards last game , with non of the tilts going over this offered number. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Kings have covered in three straight games versus the Eastern Conference and according to my projections matchup well here and have are an advantage play. 

Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Walton is 18-6 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread as the coach of SACRAMENTO. SACRAMENTO is 22-9 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 season


SACRAMENTO is 22-11 ATS   in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

No rest for either team as Warriors visit Suns but Im betting the home side getting home cooking will be better prepared and ready to run just a little bit harder. 

Both sides are unrested and Im expecting a slower more deliberate game than many might expect. 

The Warriors have seen the L/6 meetings vs the Suns stay under the set total and have gone under in 8 of their L/9 as  division  road dogs  and have also seen  6 of their L/7 away games  stay under vs unrested foes . Mean while, the Suns have gone under 9 straight times as division  chalk including   5 straight vs  unrested division  opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 220.5 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 90-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Detroit is coming off a 122-107 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Turnovers led to the Pistons' demise, as they committed 22 that the Cavaliers converted into 30 points and they are in trouble again tonight vs a Lakers side ready to rebound off a loss.

 DETROIT is 12-27 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.  Casey is 8-19 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of DETROIT.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 29-71 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Lakers to cover

The Blazers are expected to be  without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic and this situation is not a good one for a side that was already playing crap D before these key injuries.


Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

 NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PORTLAND) - after playing 4 consecutive home games, playing with 2 days rest are 5-35 SU L/5 seasons for a go against  87% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 7.8 ppg. 

Play on Houston to cover

Mavericks enter this game having gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and  are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Tonight against a Utah side that played last night and now tired legs the Mavs have an edge on this line. Note: The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

DALLAS is 24-10 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 35-17 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 30-14 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Dallas Mavericks to cover

The Raptors are according to my projections actually getting to much respect here vs a Milwaukee team that matches up well against them. I know the Raptors have played well ;lately, but past results do not guarantee future performance, which Im betting is the case here vs the Bucks. 

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 30-16 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 45-15 ATS L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Kings enter this game well rested and showing a  7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Magic, are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and  are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Advantage Sacramento  based on overall stats. 

ORLANDO is 1-10 ATS  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 21-9 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 32-18 ATS  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 17-6 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

When the Washington Wizards finally returned to action following a prolonged absence linked to league health and safety protocols, they looked disorganized and took it on the chin. However now with some practice and game time, this well rested side should be more than a handful for a Houston side that is currently being over rated after their big trade. 

Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 133-81 ATS L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Clippers will be without Leonard, George, and Beverley which gives the Hawks a big edge especially with Trae Young now expected to suit up. The Hawks are 10-0 ATS coming off a loss as a dog where they were outscored in the paint by double digits. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Portland has won six of its last eight games, while the Thunder are 0-3 on a five-game road trip that concludes Wednesday against the Phoenix Suns. Both teams look to performing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, but my power ratings suggest a closer game than the linemakers number indicates. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-7 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons

NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

 The Chicago Bulls are off a loss last time out vs the Lakers and are now ready for a bounce back performance vs the Celtics.
The Bulls previous to that defeat  averaged 121.7 points in winning three straight games and deserve respect as a up-trending side.

The Bulls are 11-2 ATS L/13 as a dog.

 NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 75-42 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

Boston really shot the lights out last time out in a 141-103 win vs the Cleveland Cavaliers and now a natural offensive regression is in the cards.  This in itself will help contribute to this tilts combined score staying on the low side of the total. Note:  BOSTON is 29-11 UNDER after a huge blowout win by 30 or more since 1996 with a combined 191.3 ppg scored. 

HC Donovan of the Bulls is 95-55 UNDER  as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average lof 215.7 ppg scored. 


NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 29-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Denver behind a top 5 offense  has revenge on board for a previous loss to the Mavs, 124-117 at home 2 1/2 weeks ago and will now be primed to play hard tonight.   The Nuggets  12-3-1 ATS as a dog with revenge in this series.   With the Mavericks off back to back  games with in-state rivals Houston and San Antonio Im expecting a deflationary situation for them here tonight. NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 34-11 ATS  L/5 seasons fkor a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover

The Hornets made a big comeback last night and then finally won 107-104  on Gordon Hayward's tie breaking shot on a drive to the basket with less than a second remaining. I now expect a bounce back by the Magic, here in the rematch.  

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread are 74-17 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover

The pace and matchup comparisons suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number as was the case last night in a 107-104 Charlotte win. 

 NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, with a losing record are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana Pacers first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren will have his team primed to gain a split with his former boss and Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse Monday night when the teams complete a two-game set at Indianapolis.The Raptors won the opener of the back-to-back games 107-102 this past Sunday .

Atlanta is one of the most under rated teams in the NBA behind Clint Capella who currently ranks No. 2 in the NBA in Rebounds Per Game, and future super star guard Trae Young (22.6 PPG) .  We all know how powerful the Bucks can be but this line according to my projections is slightly bloated and offers value for advantage players. MILWAUKEE is 10-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Orlando enters this game with the 22nd ranked pace, 28th in the league in ppg scored and have seen 9 of their L/12 games fail to eclipse the total. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 24th in ppg offence, and 10th in ppg allowed D, behind the 18th ranked pace. Both sides , play at a speed and style that points towards a combined score that stays below thsi offered number.

ORLANDO is 15-4 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.8 ppg scored.   

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

In a game that features two struggling sides, one of these teams is the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings . With that said Im betting on the Magic coming out of this with a victory especially with Fournier back int he lineup tonight.  

ORLANDO is 24-8 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 season

The Hornets are 0-12 ATS /SU as a road dog off a game as a favorite.

Play on the Orlando to cover

Oklahoma City is ranked 27th in ppg offense to this point in the season, and are now dealing with the fact they are not a offensive juggernaut and must learn to slow down teams in transition, which Im sure is the game plan tonight. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers have projected.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY is 90-62 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better  with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - a very good team (7  or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential) are 45-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% for conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Lakers are obviously the superior side here, but the Bulls have proven themselves resilient this season, especially  when getting points. More of the same action on tape in this spot play. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS  in non-conference games this season.

Take the points with the Chicago Bulls to cover 

After a hard fought win vs Milwaukee last time out by the Lakers, Im betting on a bit of an emotional letdown situation here vs Chicago tonight, which will see the Lakers start slower than usual, and that will in turn effect the early flow of this game and subsequently the combined score that will end  up to be lower than the number expected   by the linesmakers. LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER   versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.   Vogel is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 210.6 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

With Karl-Anthony Towns out of the Minnesota lineup they just dont have much flow, and the chemistry looks bad as well , as is evident by 11 losses in 12 games including 4 straight defeats with 3 coming by DDs. I know New Orleans is not playing alot better, but they are a viable option vs this type of lower tier competition. 

MINNESOTA is 1-12 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11 ppg. Saunders is 0-9 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Nets  are having some defensive issues and I expect them to ficus on   correcting some of their   issues Saturday night when they host the shorthanded Miami Heat. The Heat will be effected by a lack of cohesiveness because of their lack of a full compliment of players, This Im betting effect the score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Spoelstra is 135-103 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 201.1 ppg . 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Detroit has for the most part been competitive this season despite of their ugly record. QUOTE: "We're finding ways to get back into it, to get ourselves in a position to win," Casey said. "We're due. We're due to have some good luck." END QUOTE

The Thunder have been in a funk lately and desperate to get back into a winning groove.  I know that wont come easily vs the Clippers, but with this being the home sides 4th game in 4 nights and on tired legs the Thunder have an edge on this line . There  are positives with supporting the Thunder as a bettor as they are  6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days rest.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-7 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a losing record are 115-67 ATS L/5 years for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

.

Nuggets Malone said he would like to give Murray and Jokic some time off, but with the upcoming schedule and the importance of the games it is difficult to find time. QUOTE: "Five games in (eight) days, it's really hard to do that," Malone said. END QUOTE: The key duo are tired. Advantage Phoenix . DENVER is 7-21 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Malone is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of DENVER.

Play on the Suns to cover 

The Mavs enter this game ranked 6th in ppg allowed defence, and 22nd in offensive output, behind the 22nd ranked pace. Needless to say they are playing a deliberate conservative  style of hoops, that has coincidently resulted in unders cashing for bettors in 9 of their L/12 trips to the hardwood, including going Under is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Meanwhile, San Antonio is ranked. middle of the pack, ranking 17th in offensive output and 11th in defensive rating . Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs have also been in a under groove going 5-1 to the low side of the number L/6 trips to the court. Considering both teams current form, Ill bet and recommend we take a lower scoring stance here.Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Sixers were swept by the Celtics in the first round of last season's playoffs in the Orlando bubble. Embiid hasn't forgotten the feeling  or so the media story spin is putting it.  Now Embiid thanks to off season conditioning is now a god among men according to the media, and will slice through a group that dominated them last season.  Im not buying. it, and now instead will take a contrarian stance, and take the points with Boston. BOSTON is 20-8 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Take the points with the Celtics 

 HC Nurse said his team's defense was at its worst of the season "times three" in the game and Im betting things dont get better here tonight in a game that is more wide open than the pundits might expect. 

 MIAMI is 19-8 OVER  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

 Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 overall.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a losing record are 43-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

analysis to follow thank you for your patience 

Van Gundy is 79-52 ATS  off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA  team (UTAH) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  76% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans to cover 

In a game in fron of no fans, Im betting on the better side pulling off the win in a West vs East super matchup. As good as Giannis Antetokounmpo is , and as much as he brags about his obvious prowess, he has yet to put his money where his mouth is. Meanwhile, LeBron James and company are the real deal, and until the Greek Freak and step up in big games, Ill be fading him in this type of line. 

The Lakers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU on the road after a game as a home favorite in which they had more than 60% of the total rebounds.

Vogel is 21-9 ATS  in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of LA LAKERS. 

NBA. teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% comnversi-on rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

I know the Kings have not played inspirational basketball for a while now, but they still matchup well enough vs the Clippers  to cover a line that is partly based on recency bias and brand acceptability. 

NBA  team (LA CLIPPERS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 17-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Analysis to follow. Thank you for your patience.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

 teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Minnesota and Orlando both are aiming to pull out of their funks Wednesday night in their matchup at the Target Center in Minneapolis and Im betting they come out here with all guns blazing in an attempt to get back into the win column. This Im betting results in a combined score that goes over the total.  

Over is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Over is 8-1-1 in Magic last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 7-1-1 in Magic last 9 games as a road favorite.

The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14 at home after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game with every game in the subset eclipsing this total with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

Pistons have been playing very hard and are expected  to have most of their  regular starters  tonight vs Atlanta .  It must be noted that 6 of 9 Pistons defeats  have been within 5 points in the last 5 minutes of play.ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS  versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16  or more turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in Atlanta. 

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Jazz may have won 5 straight but there are still some hiccups, and they far from perfect, especially at home  where they have gone just 2-2 SU . Pelicans still jelling but I  like their chances here tonight to get us the cover. Jazz are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 home games. Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  

The Jazz are 0-9 ATS /1-8 SU as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses the only win came by just 3 points. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 34-13 ATS vL/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Chicago was really struggling having lost 4 straight games before last nights road victory vs the Dallas Mavericks, and are fade material here on tired legs   despite of Houstons changes of late.  The Rockets according to my matchup power rankings  are a viable bet  in this spot.   

Bulls are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

NBA  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 51-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. 

Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 70-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 43-19 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but Im betting that with this being their 4th game in less than a week, they will be at a disadvantage vs a Suns side that has the ability to make them work hard here, which makes the young men from Memphis susceptible to a 2nd half meltdown. 

Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and  are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.Suns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 4-17 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 39-76 L/24 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Phoenix Suns to cover 

HC Popovich has as way of having his teams ready to play top teir opponents, and tonight Im betting the Spurs will primed for the road win vs Portland.

Popovich is 267-221 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.

Stotts is 69-92 ATS  against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND

PORTLAND is 8-18 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 68-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Hawks despite of some star talent in their lineup are not a cohesive team, and should not garner this much respect not even against the struggling Timberwolves. Note: Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.  Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and  are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are also just  0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The New York Knicks delivered a huge victory that felt like it was  years in the making on Sunday when they routed the Boston Celtics. But now after playing all out and now in a letdown state and on tired legs as they are on back to back tilts, Im expecting the Magic come out of this with a win. ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS   as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Orlando to cover

This is the last game of the Pacers 4 game west coast road trip which has seen them go 2-1 so far, and because of the lack of entetainment venues open because of covid , Im sure they are not that tired as a team, as rest and relaxation are key to every day life in the NBA right now . The Pacers are also according to my projections a much higher rating side than the linesmakers are giving them credit for here this evening in LA vs the Clippers.Meanwhile, the Clips are off a tilt where they shot the lights out in a 138-100 win vs the Kings, and could easily see a reversion to the mean here offensively, against one of the better defences in the league.  Lue is 10-25 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more in all games he has coached in his career. 

Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. .

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 44-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover

The Pacers are are at the tail end of a 4 game west coast road trip, and will be prepared to pace themselves here vs a LA Clippers side that is well aware of their oppositions prowess. Im betting  on a offensive regression to the norm for the Clippers after running and gunning for 138 points last time out vs the Kings in a lopsided win. 

INDIANA is 48-23 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or kore  of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

The Pacers are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after their opponent shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA/LA CLIPPERS) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 57-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

 The Pelicans for the most part have payed attention to their defense and rank 7th in the league in ppg allowed while operating a pace that ranks 26th in the NBA. Here on the road Im betting on more disciplined hoops vs a Sacramento Kings group that plays has  shown very little discipline of late .Also  is the case with Van Gundy coached sides a consistent persistence on not losing control of the speed of game will continue to be implemented . This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games.

Play UNDER

The last 3 meetings in this series here in the Mile High City have been fairly low scoring affakirs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in a game that will fail to eclipse the total according to my projections. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 overall. Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Denver.

UTAH is 35-21 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 79-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - vs. division opponents, playing with 2 days rest are 82-45 L/24 seasons for a  66% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Utah has won 4 straight and are playing their best hoops of the season. The Nuggets could again be without Gary Harris, who has missed two straight games for personal reasons, and Michael Porter Jr. is out because of COVID-19 protocols which puts them at a disadvantage vs a motivated side lookin g for revenge from their play off series vs the Nuggets this past season in the bubble. 

Snyder is 21-7 ATS in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more as the coach of UTAH.

Play on Utah to cover

The Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets for the second time in three days Saturday night in Tampa, Fla. Toronto  survived a 12-point fourth quarter in Thursday's initial encounter and held on to win, 111-108 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here with the points proving to be golden. Note: Charlotte has c overed 19 of their L/27 coming off a 6 point or less loss. 

Hornets are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.Raptors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

NBA Home teams (TORONTO) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Charlotte to cover 

This is a back to back for Orlando, but they are according to my rankings the best conditioned team in the NBA, and are dangerous here as underdogs. Even if the newly acquired  Harden plays tonight, Im still feeling confident taking points. 

Clifford is 30-16 ATS in road games versus below average defensive teams like the Nets  - allowing 110+ points/game as the coach of ORLANDO.

NBA Home favorites (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen non of the game eclipse this total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. LA CLIPPERS are 12-2 UNDER in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 130 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 52-25 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Lauri Markkanen and Ryan Arcidiacano returned to practice on Wednesday, indicating they have been cleared from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and Otto Porter is expected to play tonight for the Bulls. These guys are key here in what Im betting will be a Chicago Bulls win vs a Oklahoma City side, that is young and inexperienced.

Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. 

Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

NBA Home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 86-137 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

After a week of postponements and scheduling chaos, the Boston Celtics appear set to return to the court Friday when they host the Orlando Magic but this will hinder them here in their ability to play at a top level because of rust and flow issues because of personnel losses.  Also due to due to health and safety protocols are Tatum and Williams, along with reserve guard Carsen Edwards. Swingman Jaylen Brown and big men Daniel Theis and Semi Ojeleye are among four in protocol listed as questionable, while guards Kemba Walker (knee) and Romeo Langford (wrist) are still sidelined by injury.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 46-19 ATS L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover

Golden State games have been according to my projections seeing added digits to the totals from the linesmakers  , which is showing value to the under. Thanks to those faulty numbers offered by the books we have seen 4 straight Warriors games go under the total. Warriors speedy pace, has influenced the linesmkaers, as has the presence  of their super star Curry. However, their off, because of a variation of reasons, and continue to hold value for under bettors.  


GOLDEN STATE is 27-11 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 27-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

These two sides are currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Charlotte having won 4 of their L/5 while  homeless Toronto have lost 5 of their L/6. With that said, we have a line that does not make complete sense when taking into consideration current form, but instead seems to pander to group of bettors that still perceive the Raptors as a top tier group that is able to compete for a Eastern Conference title.  I know that Charlotte played last night, but they are well conditioned according-to my charts and matchup well vs the Raptors. I do take rest into consideration  but still make the Raptors just 5 point favs. With a full possession variance in my number as compared to the line offered Im betting we have value with the up trending  underdog. Hornets are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Hornets are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.Hornets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 49-88 L/23 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

One day after a big time  trade, the Houston Rockets will travel west to face the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday for the first of a pair of games between the two teams. Im betting the energy from this trade will reverberate and have the Rockets ready to perform. 

Minnesota had lost three in a row at home, and seven consecutive overall before finding a way into the win column last time out. Now here they are as favorites, which is not a good look for this type of struggling side. With Memphis showing signs of being able to compete without the injured Morant in the lineup, with two straight wins its and easy decision to take the points here with the Grizzlies .MINNESOTA is 3-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and  Timberwolves are  also 0-10 ATS /SU as a home favorite with rest. MINNESOTA is 7-23 ATS   in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings and have covered the L/3 meetings here in Minnesota. 

Dallas is out looking for revenge against Charlotte tonight after an embarrassing 118-99 loss at home the end of December. Im betting on the Mavs getting it behind super stars Kristaps Porzingis and.Luka Doncic and a current 38% January behind the arc conversion rate.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%).   DALLAS is 26-13 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - playing with 3 or more days rest, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 67-18 SU L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 70-30 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-5 SU l/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NBA Home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 12-40 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

Both these sides have been playing top tier hoops of late,  with San Antonio winning 3 of their L/4 and the Thunder 4 of their L/5.  The Spurs did lose their last game, behind some lackluster shooting, but that has not been the norm for this side, and  Im betting on a offensive bounce back performance tonight. Note: The Spurs are 11-0 OVER as a favorite with rest off a road loss with the average combined ppg clicking in at 222.1 ppg.  SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 OVER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Lakers enter this game the Lakers are 5-6 ATS with an 8.3 winning margin on average and they now go against a side that has revenge on board for getting the living crap kicked out of them in the first meeting of the season. Note: the  the Lakers did not cover their  second game against the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, even though they won both meetings, and this Im betting will end the same way , in  a no cover for the defending champs vs a hungry side looking for redemption. 

NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 23-52 ATS L/5 season for a  go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Brooklyn has played well of late but is just  8-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Malone is 20-35 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER. I know Brooklyn maybe with Irving tonight but Durant is expected to be in the lineup and have enough talent to compete here and get us a win and cover according to my projections. Brooklyn is 2-0 SUATS L/2 games at home in this series.  Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Cleveland will be without three of their best players in guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland as well as key cog Kevin Love, and they are also playing the second of a back-to-back tilts so their not in a good spot here vs a Utah side that is rested after last playing on Sunday. 

Two short-handed sides the  Philadelphia 76ers  and Miami Heat go head to head  on Tuesday. However, one team has an edge, based on what I see is their ability to do more damage offensively thanks to the Heats inability in their current covid form to address the defensive breakdowns that have been prominent in their game of late. Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and also  7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and  9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.

Key Trend: The Heat are 0-11 ATS /SU on the road when they won 3+ straight vs current opponent. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

Both these teams 

Indiana has played some fairly high scoring tilts this season, but their calling card remains their D, and here on the road behind a pace that ranks 20th in the league Im betting we will see them paying attention in transition. Meanwhile,  Sacramento was clobbered last time out, by Portland by a 125-99 count. In the recent past ,  the Under is 13-6 in Kings last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home as they tighten things up and focus more on basics. Everything points to a tilt that sees a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

Under is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or less TO's) are 24-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 54-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Trailblazers  who rank 7th in pace 4th in offence and 25th in ppg games allowed on D, are off a win last time out on the road as a favorite which sets up a strong trend that has seen them go over 10 straight times by an average of more than 22 ppg,  with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at at a massive 249.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Toronto now playing in back to back games are on tired legs, and may have issues stopping the run and gun Blazers and will have to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 44-16 OVER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and have played decent ball for the most part of this campaign . They did not look good last time out in a home loss to Oklahoma City, but in the past they have bounced back well from a bettors perspective cashing 5 of the L/7 after a defeat. Meanwhile, the Hornets are also playing viable hoops at the moment , but they have not faired well as chalk of late failing to cash 5 of their L/6 overall. From a projections standpoint I make the Hornets 2 point favs here so my number gives us value taking points. 

This total is partly based on the Raptors dismal 3 point defence, but Im betting it will get better as the season progresses, including tonight. The Raptors are playing better lately overall, and have the veterans and coaching needed to know how to handle a Seth Curry lead offence. With that said, Im betting on the Raptors physicality to be in top gear and for the flow of this game to be slower than the number might suggest. Advantage under.

TORONTO is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212 ppg scored. TORONTO is 31-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 26-11 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.5 ppg scored.


NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average combined total of 220.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 31-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Pistons have won only two of their first nine games and are once again fade material here in this spot vs  a Utah squad that rolled the Bucks on the road last time out by DDs.Snyder is 13-3 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog as the coach of UTAH

 DETROIT is 9-25 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

I know the Magic got clobbered last night, but Im betting this under rated squad will be ready to bounce back here this evening. The Note: Magic are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall and also  8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile,  the Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

ORLANDO is 23-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 13-4 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Carlisle is 35-55 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.  

Play on Orlando to cover 

Im betting on the  San Antonio Spurs get us a    a road victory  Saturday against a struggling  Minnesota Timberwolves team that has been unable to find and flow without big man Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Timberwolves are 0-14 ATS L/14  as a home dog after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at just under 12 ppg. 

MINNESOTA is 5-23 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 26-60 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Spurs are playing top tier hoops at the moment, and are off two consecutive upset victories. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-3  L/16 UNDER  off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog with the average combined score of 185.3 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 30-14 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. 

The Spurs are 0-14-2 UNDER L/16  as a road favorite with rest after a win in which they never trailed with a combined average of 191.5 ppg scored with non of the games in the subset eclipising this total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 40-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA  team (MINNESOTA) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 37-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

 The Los Angeles Lakers will play the second end of back-to-back contests when they host the Chicago Bulls on Friday. Which give us an edge with the underdog.  CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons. NBA team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5  or more TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5  or les TO's) are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago to cover (LATE STEAM)

Utahs inconsistent play early on in the season continued last time out, as they lost as -6.5 road favs at NYK last time out. It must be noted   UTAH is 28-9 UNDER off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more with a combined average of 191.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. It makes sense as teams who are in this role, look to get back to basics and play a more conservative style of getting back to basics basketball. Few teams try to run and gun with the Bucks, and Im betting the Jazz instead will try to slow things down a bit and play a more phsycial style of hoops which will keep this combined score on the low side of the number. 

Budenholzer is 39-18 UNDER  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 206.4 ppg scored.


NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 61-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 41-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Knicks are a side that don't always inspire bettors, but they are playing decent ball at the moment and have won 5 of their first 8 games winning 3 straight while more importantly covering 5 of their L/6. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city in what must be considered a rebuilding campaign, look like more growing pains are on the way and are fade material as they play their 3rd road  game in 4 nights on tired legs.  NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making  47% or more  of their shots are 29-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors.

 Split line on the Knicks -2.5 / -145 on ML 

According to my own line and projections based on matchup statistics we have value with the underdog Charlotte Hornets vs the New Orelans Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 0-17 ATS L/17 at home after they shot worse than 26% from beyond the arc last game.

 Van Gundy is 3-17 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Road teams (CHARLOTTE) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 112-64 ATS L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Suns enter this game as the top ppg defence in the NBA, behind the slowest pace. Im betting they dictate the pacde again vs a Detroit team that is trending lower in many categories including offencive rating where they rank 20th. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more are 33-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

These teams have taken part in some physical grinding affairs of late when they have met and 5 of their L/6 meetings have resulted in the under cashing.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 124-84 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents in all games he has coached  with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored in those tilts. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - off a win against a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 83-41 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

My matchup statistics and power rankings make this game closer to -2 for Denver giving us value with taking points. This sis a game that could flip either way , thus getting to ride the underdog is a viable wagering opportunity.

 Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

Nuggets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.


DENVER is 8-21 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons .


DALLAS is 25-13 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams (DENVER) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record. are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover 

Two struggling sides do battle tonight in desperation mode. This looks to be a dog fight, which makes taking the points a viable betting option. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 23-9 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons


NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 59-28 ATS L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

I am not impressed by the Raptors so far this season, and despite of a weak bench Im betting on the core veterans of this group to come together tonight and give the Suns a battle which my projections estimate to supply us with a cover. The opening line was closer to where it should be and recency bias and public money streaming in the Suns  is now making getting points a viable opportunity for profit. 

TORONTO is 28-12 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

 Williams is 9-25 ATS  in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses are 43-16 ATS L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Detroit has really stunk up the joint here so far this season, in the won loss column at 1-6  but , they have been competetive for the most part and have cashed 4 of their L/5 trips to the hardoowd including a recent 122-120 heartbreaking loss the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off two lopsided wins, with plenty of scoring punch spread around the lineup,including the last tilt vs this same Pistons group. Note: The Bucks are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by just under 13 ppg  with rest off a win in which they had 6+ double digit scorers. Also  NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are just 16-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or better on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 105-60 ATS L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Motown to cover 

The banged up Cavaliers after a quick start to their campaign are in desperation mode after suffering their  fourth loss in their past five trips to the hardwood.  The Cavs now play the Orlando Magic for the second time in the last  three nights and lost the last one 103-83  Monday. I know the Cavs dont look viable in their current form but with Issac Okoro expected to return tonight and with Orlando expected to be without Fournier and Williams we have an edge here taking points.Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Magic are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games and  are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest and are also  7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Spurs have lost 4 straight , but two of those games to a Lakers group that they did not matchup well against. The other two losses were closely contested. I know the Spurs Aldridge may not play or is less than 100%, but i still feel confident taking points here behind a hardworking group that actually matches up well vs the Clippers. Add to that ,  Im also betting this  will be an unmotivated Clippers group off a two game road trio vs strong competetion ( Suns, Jazz) and will now be on tiored legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. NBA Road underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 129-77 ATS L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

I am betting Denver behind a 28th ranked pace, will dictate this game in the trenches, which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 31-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 207.7 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Neither one of these teams are playing all that well, and while Minnesota has looked far worse recently than the the Utah Jazz, Im betting this line is slightly bloated when comparing matchup schemes and my own power rankings

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 24 or less  free throws/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 6-27 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (DENVER) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 13-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Utah runs a pace that ranks 23rd in the NBA and now own the 8th best ppg defence and here tonight Im betting that we have value taking the under here vs a  Nets side that has gone under in 7 of their  last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 like the Jazz. 

Snyder is 30-15 UNDER L/45 versus poor ball handling teams - committing 16 or more  turnovers/game as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 196.1 ppg per game going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 62-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 30-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 7-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover 

I have charted how the Heat have performed recently against sides like Oklahoma City that are having a hard time competing. These following trends give us an indication of a strong factor favoring the over.  MIAMI is 16-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 OVER versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. Also MIAMI is 20-6 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg going on the board.  MIAMI is 13-3 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Play OVER

Philly took out Charlotte by a 127-112 count last time out , but I saw enough good matchups for Charlotte to back them getting points in the rematch. 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-23 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 32-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 6-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, team that had a winning record last season are 12-36 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Charlotte to cover

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience - All NBA wagers come with a full explanation of why and how I came to my conclusions. 

Alex Smart's moto  Alex's moto comes via the late Great Jimmy the Greek, "The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself".

Play on the OVER 

Portland enters this game ranked 9th in offensive output and 23rd in defensive ppg against and 25th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Warriors rank 2nd in pace in the league, and 30th in ppg allowed. This current form for both teams sets up for a formula of big offensive numbers going on the board. 

PORTLAND is 14-2 OVER  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season with a combined average of 239.5  ppg going on the board. 

Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-39 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

My projections have made this game total 224 thus giving us value with an over wager. 


UTAH is 8-0 OVER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER