Oklahoma City beat Houston the last time they met back in January in a 112-107 win and my projections estimate a similar total combined score here today. Note:  D'Antoni is 23-4 UNDER in non home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite as the coach of HOUSTON with the combined average score of 217.3 ppg going on the board. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-13 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.

HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season. HOUSTON is 17-3 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 0-6 UNDER L/6 as a dog.

7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 - Lake Buena Vista, F

Dallas’ defense is horrendous, and they dont have much or any play off experience  but this line is just a tad high according to my projections which gives us close to a two basket edge to the under. 

LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. LA CLIPPERS are 19-8 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Boston is simply smoother and more proficient in transition than Philadelphia , and Im betting on a game 1 mismatch. 

PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

BOSTON is 21-10 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BOSTON is 10-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 33-1 l/5 seasons with the average margin of victory clicking in at 12.8 ppg. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play on Boston Celtics to cover 

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 - Lake Buena Vista, F

The Raptors defense is very deep and they have a size and physical edge in this series and have an ability to make shooters look bad.  This is evident by their 2nd ranked D vs opponents’ 50.3% eFG%. Also the Nets like to shoot 3s and the Raps will give them that opportunity , but it must be noted  , the Raptors are the best team at limiting opponents’ accuracy from downtown and the Nets Im betting will have issues converting. 

TORONTO is 23-14 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 217.8 ppg.

.NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Utah Jazz will be without Mike Conely for this first round game vs Denver because of the birth of his child, which is definitely a detriment to his teams chances today. He has left the bubble and will have to quarantine upon his return. I know the Nuggets have not played all that well, but today they have the edge needed to deliver the cash to their backers. 

UTAH is 5-20 ATS in road games after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent since 1996.

DENVER is 24-13 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Malone is 34-16 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to win 

These teams have had 3 meetings this season with scores of 98-95 and 106-100, and than a Double OT game in the bubble that resulted in a flash card total of 134-132. Four the fourth meeting Im betting on another lower scoring affair, with no OT which will get us to the promised land of cashing an under ticket. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - playing with 2 days rest, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 67-34 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

-Western Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1 - Orlando, FL

Im betting Memphis will not play into the run and gun strength of the Blazers and instead play a more physical brand of basketball that gives them a chance to compete. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this total.

MEMPHIS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 203.9 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS/PORTLAND) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-2 UNDER with a combined average of 208.5 ppg over the last 5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Memphis has just one game left to earn a spot in the Western Conference play-in series this weekend. They have to leave it all on the floor here today, and look capable of doing so against a Bucks side that will be without super star and reigning league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo was ejected from their game against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night after he head-butted Moritz Wagner in the second quarter. 

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 11-36 L/24 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

 The Nuggets’ defense since the restart has centered around the team’s ineffectiveness defending the 3-point line, which is not a good omen for Denver in this matchup. The Clippers rank second in the league in 3-point percentage, having  converted on  43.1 percent of their attempts from down town. On the other end of the court, Denver’s defense ranks last defending treys, as their opposition connects at  45.5 percent  clip. Ugly numbers, that tell the story of why I like Clippers today. 

The Clippers are 11-0 ATS /SU  with rest coming off a loss as a favorite.

Play on LA Clippers to win 

The  Oklahoma City Thunder  need their  midrange game  shots to fall consistently  and considering the  Heat are a top team in the bubble at limiting opponents’ accuracy from midrange you have a situation where in a matchup of two slow paced teams that the Thunder have an edge. Add to that the Heat have the motivation of clinching the No.4 seed entering the play offs and you have an edge with Miami. 

NBA team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 38-89 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Houston coach Mike D'Antoni made it clear Tuesday that the priority is winning next week, not this week and that was evident last time out in a loss to to San Antonio last time out by a 123-105 lopsided count. With Westbrook not expected to play for the Rockets, I can see the hard working Pacers having an edge from a value point perspective on the line. 

INDIANA is 11-3 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.HOUSTON is 11-20 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or ,less  turnovers/game this season.

Play on Indiana to cover 

Nets run the 10th fastest pace in the NBA while Orlando plays much slower. With the Nets short handed speed and small ball will be the name of the game which Im betting helps this game turn into a fast transitional affair that eclipses the total. After two straight losses Im expecting to a see an aggressive Magic side that will be primed to put points on the board. 

ORLANDO is 19-4 OVER   after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.

ORLANDO is 11-3 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 233.3 ppg going on the board. 

ORLANDO is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 228,7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

The Arena at ESPN Wide World of Sports - Lake Buena Vista, FL

The  Lakers are trying to rediscover championship-quality basketball after four months off, and to this point alot of disappointment has manifested itself. However, Im betting now that tough times have arrived  via 3 straight losses that this talented group will pull together, and get a complete team effort and win here today vs the Denver Nuggets. 

 DENVER is 3-12 ATS  in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the ML (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 8-50 SU L/24 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate with the average margin loss coming by -9.8 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Im betting  the  Bucks will jam the paint and  make the Raptors beat them from the perimeter. The last time the two teams met, Toronto attempted a season-high 52 3s, connecting on 18 of them (34.6%)  and have attempted 88 in two games against the Bucks this year. . The Raptors attempt 36.9 3s per game After five quarters of very inconsistent shooting, Toronto shot 14-for-30 (46.7%) in the final three quarters of its win on over Memphis and Im betting that their lack of consistent conversion rates from downtown and the field will be their undoing here today vs the Bucks. 

MILWAUKEE is 23-9 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 17-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

TORONTO is 1-9 ATS  vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are 114-64 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

After watching the Robinhooder's and a few pros slam down their wagers on the streaking Suns the line has moved in a direction that is just a bit inflated. I know Phoenix has played great ball, and that the Thunder are short handed to a degree, but Im confident that the Thunder matchup well here getting points. Note: The Suns have not won 6 games in a row since 2014, and getting a victory here will not come as easily as some anticipate. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are just 8-22 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

The Toronto Raptors will be primed to bounce back after losing to the Boston Celtics last time out. The Celtics actually matched up well against the Raptors from downtown, , but that wont be a problem here vs a Memphis side that shoot 3s in the  bottom-five, Memphis looked good in a win last time out vs Oklahoma City, but the Raptors inside superuiority that includes the  the third-best rim defense in the league this season will be a difference maker here and Im betting provide us with a cover.TORONTO is 19-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.TORONTO is 21-10 ATS  in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 in this series.

Play on Toronto to cover 

The Arena at ESPN Wide World of Sports - Lake Buena Vista, FL
Key Utah injuries put them at a disadvantage in this matchup vs Denver. [C] 08/06/2020 - Rudy Gobert is OUT Friday vs San Antonio ( Rest )[SG] 08/06/2020 - Donovan Mitchell is OUT Friday vs San Antonio ( Leg )

I know Denver is also banged up  and not playing with  guards Jamal Murray (left hamstring) and Gary Harris (right hip), as well as forward Will Barton (right knee) for the last four games. But key  Forward Paul Millsap sat out for rest Thursday   should be back in the lineup on Saturday and gives this Denver side a very good chance at victory thanks to a  deep bench, a rising star in Micheal Porter and a top level talent in Jokic.

NBA team vs the money line (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)  are 13-77 L/23 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to win 

The defending NBA champions are on a 4-0 SU/ATS run and are playing top tier basketball and must be respected on a short line as favorites. I have not been impressed with the Celtics in the restart or overall this season and feel confident fading them in this spot play. 


Nurse is 17-6 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 10-35 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate. 

Play on Toronto to cover 

Desperate Grizzlies after 4 straight losses are desperate for a win and will play hard here giving me confidence in taking points in this spot vs Oklahoma City.

 Memphis are 9-1 ATS/SU in revenging a loss against an opponent with less than two days rest.  

Play on Memphis to cover

The Clippers have matched up well vs the  Mavericks’ this season, as was evident by  114-99 victory as 1.5 point road favorites on Nov. 26 and then again as 2.5 point road underdogs 110-107 win on Jan. 21 and now Im betting they have an edge here in this neutral court environment on a line I have chalked up as closer to -5 whihc gives us value according to my power ranking projections. 

The Clippers are 12-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest after making at least 10 more free throws than their opponen with the average score deficit clicking in a6 16.1 ppg.The Clippers are 11-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a loss facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end covering by an average of 15.5 ppg. 

NBATeams like the Mavericks' are 0-11-1 ATS /0-12 SU as a dog with rest off a win as a favorite after an overtime win in which they trailed by double digits.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

The Suns have played great ball out of the break, especially in transition m  but Im betting that comes to end here  vs a very under rated  Pacers group  that  can clean the glass with the best in the league and also has a significant edge behind a offense that has produced the 10th-most points per 100 halfcourt plays as compared to a  Suns’ side that ranks  27th in halfcourt defense.

The Suns are 0-9 ATS /SU with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average.
INDIANA is 5-0 straight up/against the spread against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Alot of piss was taken out of Orlando yesterday as they were easily owned by Indiana  y in a DD loss. Now a little downtrodden and far from fresh the Magic go against a defending champion Toronto Raptors side that has already beaten them 3 times this season, and well equipped to turn the trick here again today and get us the cover in the process. ORLANDO is 0-9 ATS  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

ORLANDO is 2-10 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season.

Play on Toronto to cover 

Indiana (41-26) opened play in the Orlando area on Saturday with a 127-121 win over Philadelphia before routing the Washington Wizards two days later in a 111-100 matinee. Orlando is also undefeated but also offers up a less formidable matchup according to my power rankings. Note: The Pacers have on the two most recent meetings in this seires. ORLANDO is 1-19 ATS   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

Play on Indiana to cover 

Both teams rank in the top-10 in pace averaging  more than 105 possessions per game with the Clippers ranking 8th and suns 9th. Here in aneutral court environment Im betting they run and gun with wrecklaess abandon here today in a game that eclipses this total. 
The Suns are 13-1 OVER L/13 with less than two days rest off a win as a dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average ppg total of 233.2 ppg scored.  

NBA teams are 12-0 OVER with more than one day of rest after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 252.7 ppg scored. 

Play over

The 76ers are built to control the glass and rank the second-  in rebounding the league while the Spurs rank 20th. The 76ers have a huge advantage  which Im betting will see Embiid to  own the paint and offensive rebounding numbers as he wont have to deal with  LaMarcus Aldridge blocking prowess. 

SAN ANTONIO is 4-17 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 8-21 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, in non-conference games are 74-36 L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

The Grizzlies lost both games against the Pelicans before the hiatus -- falling 126-116 in Memphis and 139-111 in New Orleans -- just 11 days apart in January. This is a rince and repeat situation. 

The Grizzlies are 0-9-1 ATS /0-10 SU away from home with no rest coming off a loss.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS  in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 10-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate. 

New Orleans to cover 

This years version Bucks are pace demons leading the lead and are extremely dangerous in transition taking  long rebounds off missed 3s and converting them into  quick points .  Considering they rank first in  Bucks lead the NBA in defensive rebounding Im betting they gobble up and make the rockets pay for their any flow problems they may have from downtown and quickly turn this game in their favor.

MILWAUKEE is 17-6 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

note:The Rockets are 0-13 ATS /SU L/13 as a dog off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

NBA Underdogs (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Orlando, did a run and gun job on the Nets last time out byt no one played more than 26 minutes and they will be ready to run and gun again vs a Sacramento side, that  lost  129-120, despite 39 points from De'Aaron Fox. Today Im betting Fox continues his hot hand, and for the Magics array of young shooters to once again rain down some terror in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. 

ORLANDO is 8-1 OVER   when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER   after a combined score of 245 points or more this season with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored. 

The Magic are 13-0 L/13 OVER after they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the average combined score clicking in at 236 ppg.The Magic are 13-0 L/13 OVER facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 239.3 ppg scored. 

NBATeams like the Kings are 18-1 OVER L/19 on the road with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

The Portland Trail Blazers are off a hard fought comeback victory against the Memphis Grizzlies and may find themselves in a letdown spot after that victory. Boston Im betting takes advatnage of the Blazers lack of depth on the wing and shows us their ability to compete. Also Im expecting a huge comeback from , Tatum  who shot just 2-of-18 from the floor, including 0-for-4 on 3-pointers in the Celtics opener vs the Bucks. BOSTON is 9-1 ATS   in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

The Celtics are 26-1 ATS /27-0 SU L/27 as a favorite with rest off a game as a dog after being outscored in the paint by double digits.

NBA Teams like the Blazers  are 0-11 ATS/SU  L/11 as a dog with rest off a win as a favorite after an overtime win in which they trailed by double digits. 

PORTLAND is 5-15 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

BOSTON is 7-0 ATS  in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season.

Play on Boston to cover 

With key Pacers offensive cog not in the lineup here tonight vs Philadelphia, Indiana's offence Im betting will have flow problems. When Sabonis was healthy and playing earlier this season his team averaged 112 points per 100 possession and after he was injured the numbers fell to around 107 ppg points per 100 which is a huge drop in productivity . Im betting this has a direct effect on what  is a bloated tota considering the 76ers own the 4th best ppg average in the league behind a 19th ranked pace. On the flip side the Pacers own the 5th best ppg D, and rank 24th in pace, behind the 24th ranked offence. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE here today.

l. Note: INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 197.6 ppg scored.(8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons).

Play UNDER 

When these teams played back in November the Nuggets spanked the  Heat in the Mile High City, by a 109-89 count. Now with revenge on board I expect the Heat to be wide awake here and ready for revenge. The Nuggets are 0-12-2 ATS L/14 /1-13/SU  on the road with rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

DENVER is 20-33 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons. 

MIAMI is 36-21 ATS ) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Miami to cover 

Dallas   offense  ranks first in efficiency at 115.8 points per 100 possessions (one spot ahead ahead of the second-ranked Rockets)DALLAS is 11-2 OVER  on Friday nights this season with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. Both meetings this season were very high scoring affairs with a 128-121 result and a 137-123 score. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda. 

Play OVER

I really like the Spurs young players and feel they are being under valued . We will see alot of this top tier young talent , and Im betting they give  a Kings gropup that is going to have    front-court problems  a go of it here today. Note: Sacramento will be without Marvin Bagley  and Alex Len . The Kings smashed the Spurs before the seasons was abruptly ended and now revenge is on board.SAN ANTONIO is 11-1 ATS  revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS  revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a win against a division rival are 54-12 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 47-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

 These two teams have combined for at least 221 points in both head to head meetings this season, which includes 251 points in their last time they faced each other on the court. With a talented full compliment of players on the court for both teams Im expecting some  offensive fireworks .

Before the break the Bucks owned the number 1 pace in the league and the best offensive scoring output at 118.6 ppg .

Play OVER 

The NJ Nets are decimated and missing key players, but wins are so important in this restart that I expect the players on the floor to step up and they will not easily disposed of making getting points golden . 

The Nets are 17-0 ATS L/17 on the road with more than two days of rest off a road game.

BROOKLYN is 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (BROOKLYN) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 26-12 SU for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

HP Field House - Orlando, FL

New Orleans is explosive offensively and run and gun at a very high speed. Look at data from their  last 15 games before the covid abruptly end the NBA season, the Pelicans had registered the second-fastest pace in the NBA (106.13). What makes them offensive converting machines is evident by a fourth-highest percentage of their points in transition (16.9%)  during the above time perimeters. Whether Zion plays or not today Im betting they go full throttle, and drag a capable Jazz into a fast paced affair that will eclipse this total. 

UTAH is 11-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. 

The Jazz won the season's first two meetings -- 128-120 at home and 128-126 on the road. The Pelicans won the most recent matchup, 138-132 in New Orleans on Jan. 16.

NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 17-0 OVER L/17 on the road/neutral after they had 20+ turnovers during the playoffs with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. 

The Pelicans are 23-4-1 OVER L/28 as a favorite with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throw with a combined average 233.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Mavs played last night in San Antonio and suffered a loss to their instate rivals. Now they come home and despite of playing on back to back nights have what Im betting is an edge, against what has become a inconsistent Denver side. that has alternated wins and losses since late Feb . Last time out the Nuggets beat a short handed Bucks side, without their key star Antetokounmpo out of the lineup and now I expect some emotional  regression here after being sky high for that tilt ,which makes them vulnerable to a down effort. Note: The Nuggets have lost 3 of their L/4 road tilts. 

Dallas  duo of Doncic and Dorian Finney-Smith are both officially available to play on Tuesday. 

The Mavericks are 15-1-1 ATS/16-1 SU L/17 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a road game after a game that was tied 5+ times. 

The Mavericks are 11-0 ATS /SU L/11 when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.

The Nuggets are 0-16 ATS/2-14 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ win as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range.The Nuggets are 2-21 ATS/3-20 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ win.The Nuggets are 1-17 ATS /2-16 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ win as a home favoriteThe Nuggets are 0-12 ATS /1-11 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

Atlanta  has been playing well at home of late . The Hawks have won nine of their past 12 at State Farm Arena,  and deserve the respect they are getting on the line here tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks are off a  loss last night that saw them blow a DD lead and finally succumb to the Wizards. The Knicks looked winded last night, and that Im betting carries over into tonight in the second part of their back to back games as they will play on tired legs vs a side that promises to run and gun against them. 

The Knicks are 0-12 ATS /SU off a loss as a road dog after a loss in which they led by 15+ with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13 ppg. 

The Knicks are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

The Hawks are 11-1 ATS /12-0 SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which they had overtime( They beat Charlotte in OT on Monday night) with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.5 ppg.The Hawks are 14-3-2 ATS /17-2 SU as a favorite with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at 6 ppg. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

 Dallas has won all 3 meetings in this series with San Antonio this season and now the desperate Spurs get a chance for some redemption as well as solidifying their opportunities for a late season run into the play offs . Also Dallas star guard Doncic has been added to the injury report and is listed questionable in advance of Tuesday's game with a sprained right wrist which is a new injury. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS L/10 as hosts during the regular season with triple revenge exact behind HC Popovich when not favored by 4 or more points, including 10-0 ATS against above  .500 opposition. Overall the Spurs are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog.

The Spurs are 19-1 ATS /20-0 SU at home with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

The Mavericks are 1-14 ATS /SU with rest off a loss as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with the one win in this subset coming by just 1 points. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Orlando has been playing some very good basketball of late, but there are always uptrending periods as well as down trending runs for all teams in the NBA , and sometimes regency bias can throw some of us off.  However, looking at both teams the I see the Grizzlies as being the more consistent team overall. It must also be noted that MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS   when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. The Grizzlies also have revenge on board for a loss earlier this season to the Grizzlies. Note: The Magic are 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a win in a road game when they won 2 straight vs current opponent.  . The Magic are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13  as a dog when their last four games are LLWW.

The Grizzlies are 17-1-2 ATS/19-1 SU as a home favorite off a 10+ win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

Washingtons Bradley Beal's 30.4 points per game ranks second in the league behind Houston's James Harden (34.3). Im betting on him being the catalyst for a Wizards cover vs the tanking NY Knicks.The Wizards are 20-4 in the past 24 meetings with the Knicks, who snatched  a 107-100 win in Washington on Dec. 28 when Beal sat out with soreness in his right leg. Wizards with Beals in revenge on board are my choice. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 50-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover 

Atlanta's Hunter and DeAndre Bembry (abdominal) are questionable prior to Monday's game and if they play I doubt they are playing at 100%.  This will effect the flow of the Hawks. Meanwhile, Charlotte behind the 30th ranked ppg output and 30th ranked pace will in their usual fashion look to grind their opponents down via a very deliberate approach. Here against a run and gun style side like Atlanta a even more conservative approach will be in effect which will directly effect this total to the under.

The Hornets are 4-29-1 to the UNDER L/34 on the road with rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored.The Hornets are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a road dog with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 195.5 ppg going on the board.

The Hawks are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15 as a favorite with rest off a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average combined score clicking in at 188.6 ppg scored.The Hawks are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which they scored a least 18 fast break points with a combined average of 197.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%). are 49-16 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Toronto Raptors are expected to have both Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol back in the lineup Sunday night when they visit a tired Sacramento Kings side that will be playing playing on back to back nights. The precense of the two above mentioned key cogs in the Raptors lineup gives them   them an extended edge they already would have had even if they did not play , making laying points with the defending champions  an easy decision.  As far as the line goes, Im making this closer to my -7, but with the Kings upset last night at Portland ,  a little recency bias has tainted the number. Note: SACRAMENTO is 0-10 ATS  in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. 

The Kings are 0-18 ATS /SU L/18 as a home dog off a win as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -16 ppg. The Kings are 0-12 ATS /SU L/12 as a home dog after they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter with a combined average of -13.8 ppg. 

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 37-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

As we come closer to play off time teams that expect to be the post season start to pay alot more attention to defence. Thus when I look at this game between what are arguably the best two teams in the west Im expecting we have an edge with an under wager. Im betting a slower paced game that will be more physical than usual for a regular season tilt, and for both to contest the rim repeatedly. 

The Lakers are 4-30 UNDER L/43 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 197.9 ppg scoredThe Lakers are 2-23 to the UNDER L/25  when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 190.2 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Teams like the Clippers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER 

With their full roster intact, the Clippers have recorded an average margin of victory of 17.0 points in their last six games. They are 10-0 SU when all their players are healthy and Im betting that trend stays intact here today vs the Lakers. 

The Lakers are 3-21-2 ATS /4-22 SU  on the road with less than two days rest after they scored 15 or more points in the second than the first half.

The Lakers are 0-9 ATS /SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest after they scored 15 or more points in the second than the first half. 

NBATeams like the Clippers are 16-0 ATS /SU as a home favorite off a win as a road favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points.

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

With Steph Curry back in the lineup and the newly aquired Andrew Wiggins on the court the Warriors look like a viable option getting points vs a depleted and banged up Sixers lineup.

The Warriors are 21-4-1 ATS /22-4 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game.

 PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Sixers are also 10-23 SU on the road this season.

The Seventysixers are 3-18 ATS L/21 on the road off a win in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

A depleted banged up and exhausted 76ers will play their  4th away game on this west coast road trip in  a week and now they will   be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun which Im betting will help make this a lower scoring affair.   NBA teams like Philadelphia  0-17 to the UNDER L/17 on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 198 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 199.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Denver enters this tilt having gone over in 11 of their L/14 games, while the Cavaliers have gone over in 3 straight, and have seen themselves and their opponents average 223+ ppg when playing as hosts this season  as they are here tonight. With Denver finally healthy Im betting they will continue to gear up for play off basketball by getting their offensive flow back, and for Cleveland with nothing to play for to be loose and to run the floor with wreck-less abandon in chase mode, which projects to a higher combined score than this current totals line suggests. 

Nuggets: 5-0 OVER L5 in non-conference road games while the Cavaliers are : 7-0 OVER L/7  in 2/1 rest situation. 

Over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 games following a ATS loss.Over is 8-0 in Nuggets last 8 games as a road favorite.Over is 7-1-1 in Nuggets last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-1-1 in Nuggets last 6 overall.

Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 Saturday games.Over is 12-3 in Cavaliers last 15 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a home underdog.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Nuggets are 20-3-1 OVER L/24 as a road favorite with rest off a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 234.5 ppg going on the score board. The Nuggets are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a road favorite with rest off a win in a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Nuggets are 25-4-1 OVER with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 238.1 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Im backing the experience of LeBron James and Anthony Davis over the young raw talent of Giannis. Antetokounmpo and company. The Bucks thanks to their extremely hot start have targets on their backs. Look for the Lakers to be very motivated to send a message to the Bucks that the road to a championship has to come through LA. 

The Lakers are 15-2 ATS /SU with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game. The Lakers are 8-0 ATS/SU L/8  when the line is within 3 of pick off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game. 

LA LAKERS are 18-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

MILWAUKEE is 14-27 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

The Bucks are 4-31-1 ATS /2-34 SU as a dog with rest off a win as a home favorite.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 28-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

 There is alot of offense in both these teams lineup, but Im expecting this heavy weight battle, to be like a post season tilt and be lower scoring because of both sides expected attention to playing solid defence and to be physical as well. It must be noted the Bucks own the 2nd best ppg D in the NBA, and the No.1 defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Lakers own the 3rd best defensive rating, behind a deliberate disciplined pace that ranks 12th in the league.

The Bucks are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 191.6 ppg. 

The Lakers are 4-29 UNDER L/33 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 197.4 ppg going on the board. 

LA LAKERS are 18-5 UNDER  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored.LA LAKERS are 15-4 UNDER   in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored.  

Play UNDER 

With Portland MVP Damian Liilard expected to be back in the Blazers lineup tonight I expect them to be juiced up and ready to continue their domination of a inconsistent Suns side that they have beaten 11 of the L/12 times.

The Trailblazers are 12-0 ATS/SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

The Suns are 1-14 ATS (/SU with more than one day of rest after they had 6+ double digit scorers.

Play on Portland to cover /win on the ML

Miami is quite methodical in their approach to most games, behind the 26th ranked pace, and here against a explosive New Orleans team, that must be respected Im sure  HC Spoelstra  has a grinding game plan on his agenda. You have to remember this is the same Heat team that just held Milwaukee to 89s points recently. 

The Heat are 2-16-1 UNDER L/19 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average score of 192 ppg going on the board with none of the games in the sub set going over this total. 

The Pelicans are 0-8 UNDER L/8 at home with rest when they are off two games in which they had twice as many assists as turnovers with the combined average score clicking in at 219.4 ppg. 

 NBA Teams like the Pelicans  are 0-15 UNDER L/15 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 27-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

According to Anthony Slater of The Athletic, Curry has been fully cleared for his return and will play on Thursday and Im betting even with reduced minutes, this will spark the Warriors to try to run with the Raptors who have had not problems despite of an array of injuries of lighting up the score board on a regular basis. 

The Raptors are 12-0 OVER L/12 as a favorite with a combined average of 236.4 ppg scored.  

The Raptors are 11-0 OVER L/12 as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a win facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 239.4 ppg going on the board.  

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 35-13 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The  banged up and battered Philadelphia 76ers  will once again be short handed tonight, with three key starters  (Joel Embiid (shoulder), Ben Simmons (back)  Josh Richardson (concussion).expected to miss this road game vs Sacramento.  This Im betting effects their offensive flow of a team that only averages 105.1 ppg on the road this season, and that ranks 6th in ppg allowed overall in the NBA ( 107.2 ppg). Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings have been paying alot more attention to defence as the season progresses and previous to their last game took part in 5 straight lower scoring affairs that failed to eclipse the total. 

SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  218.1 ppg scored .

 NBA Teams like the Kimnhs  are 4-23-1 UNDER L/28  as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which they shot over 55% from the field with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored.

The Seventysixers are 0-13-1 UNDER L/15 with rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throw with a combined average of 203.5 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 25-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Rockets are 2-1 against the Clippers this season, including a 102-93 home win on Nov. 13 and now Im, betting the Clippers who are on a 6 game win streak to  even this series tonight and more importantly cover. 

LA CLIPPERS are 26-14 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons

The Rockets are 0-10 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest after a game that was tied 5+ times which was the case in the a loss to the Knicks last time out. 

NBA Teams like the Rockets are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a loss as a road favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. NBA Teams  like the Rockets are 0-12 ATS /SU L/12 with more than one day of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making more than 20 free throws per game.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 31-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

The Timberwolves,   have just seven home wins this season so they obviously have no advantage playing as hosts. Chicago defeated Minnesota 117-110 at United Center in the teams' first meeting this season and Im betting they have an edge here getting points. 

The Timberwolves are 0-16 ATS /1-15 SU at home with less than two days rest when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points.The Timberwolves are 1-16/SU/ATS  L/17  at home off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Jazz have been struggling a bit of late, thanks to some lethargic defensive performances. But Im betting they are wide awake tonight vs a NY team that has been working hard since the team made a coaching change and are recently upset the Rockets. So now in desperation mode and not taking their opponents for granted Im betting the more talented team brings home the win and more importantly the cover in this spot.  note: UTAH is 10-1 ATS  in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg doff clicking in at 8.4 ppg. 

The Jazz are 17-0 ATS /SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a win after a game with 8+ lead changes with the average ppg diff clicking in a 11.6 ppg. NBA Teams like the Jazz are 17-2-1 ATS / 19-1 SU as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they shot over 50% from the field.

Play on Utah to cover 

The Boston Celtics head into Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on the second leg of a back-to-back Tuesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. Im betting they get it done vs an extremely inconsistent  Cleveland side  even without Kemba Walker and Tatum out of the lineup tonight. Note: The Cavaliers lost on Monday to Utah, 126-113 in a hard fought affair where they showed some surprising work ethic . However NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 1-21-1 ATS /1-22 SU as a dog with rest off a 10+ loss after a game with 8+ lead changes. The Celtics are 13-1 ATS/SU  as a road favorite when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more, playing on back-to-back days are 30-2 SU L/23 seasons. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The list of Motowns walking wounded is enormous and puts them a big disadvantage tonight vs a Oklahoma City team that travels well, having cashed at a 21-7 ATS rate in road games this season. I know Oklahoma State played last night, but they are one of the leagues best conditioned teams going 8-1 ATS this season in the 2nd of back to back tilts. 

[PF] 03/03/2020 - Sekou Doumbouya is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Leg )[PF] 03/03/2020 - Thon Maker is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Ankle )[PG] 03/03/2020 - Derrick Rose is out indefinitely ( Ankle )[PG] 03/03/2020 - Bruce Brown is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Knee )[PG] 03/02/2020 - Brandon Knight left last game, is "?" Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Knee )[PF] 01/06/2020 - Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Knee )[SG] 12/26/2019 - Luke Kennard is out indefinitely ( Knee )

The Thunder are 13-0 ATS/SU  as a favorite off a home game when they are off two games in which less than half their field goals were assisted.

Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

The Raptors have lost 3 straight games and will now be hungry to get back on a winning track vs a inconsistent Suns team they matchup well against . Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Raptors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

The Suns are 0-15 ATS /SU with rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.The Suns are 0-14 ATS/1-13 SU after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.The Suns are 0-12 ATS/SU after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds.

Toronto is 5-0 SU L/5 in this series vs Phoenix. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-7 ATS L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on Toronto to cover 

The Raptors have thrived despite dealing with injuries all season, but the most recent injuries are taking a toll because Ibaka and Gasol are their centers and they have no one to replace their quality and thus their offensive flow is off, and now knowing this they are going to have to step up defensively after allowing a whopping 133 points last time out. Meanwhile, the Suns are also banged up, and playing short handed and off two straight home losses and are also having issues with their flow. The suns last three offensive outputs have been 92, 111, 99 and another  below average offensive outing Im betting is on tonights agenda. The above mentioned realities are going to effect this total to the under. 

PHOENIX is 7-0 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive home losses this season.PHOENIX is 16-2 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more

The Raptors are 2-20 UNDER L/22 as a favorite off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.The Raptors are 0-13 OU (  as a favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which they had a shooting percentage at least 10 lower than their opponent with a combined average of 190.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Suns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a dog off a 10+ loss in a home game after a loss in which they led by double digits with a combined average of 206.4 ppg going on the board.

The Suns are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a dog off a loss in a home game in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 203.7 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams are banged up with key regulars out of the lineup .

Boston : 

[PG] 03/02/2020 - Kemba Walker is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs Brooklyn ( Knee ) He is still going to see limited time , and will playing less than 100%. 

Brooklyn:

The Celtics are 1-12 OU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 205.8 ppg scored. 

The Nets are 3-19-1 UNDER L/23 on the road with more than one day of rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 198.4 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

The Bulls enter this game agains the Mavericks recording a  2-7 ATS  mark in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and  are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and from a matchup metrics perspective are the superior side. Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago and once again get my support here in the chalk role. 

Mavericks are 15-0-1 ATS /16-0 SU as a road favorite off a win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.4 ppg.The Mavericks are 15-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent shot under 60% from the free throw line with the average pgg diff clicking in at +10.9 ppg.

NBA Teams like the Bulls are 1-22-1 ATS /`1-23 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss as a road dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff registering in at -15.6 ppg. The Bulls are 2-20 ATS /1-21 SU as a home dog with rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.5 ppg. CHICAGO is 0-10 ATS  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Chicago has been picking up their pace here late in the season , with their biggest problem coming in being able to slow down opposing offences, allowing an average of 121.2 ppg. Considering Dallas can light up the board quickly, I expect the Mavs to hit the 117+ point output on their own and for the Bulls to have to open up to keep pace in what Im betting will be a  fairly high scoring affair. Note: DALLAS is 31-5 OVER when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 235.4 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 17-3 OVER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored. The Bulls are 17-1-1 OVER L/19 as a dog with rest off a loss when they are off two losses as dogs with a combined average score of 231 ppg going on the board. NBA Teams like the Bulls are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 off a 10+ loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with a combined average score of 237.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams are 16-1 OVER L/17 as a road favorite with no rest off a 10+ win as a road favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 233.1 ppg scored. Dallas   in 21 games on the  road  where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season has seen a combined average of 229 ppg go on the board. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-11 L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

 Atlanta ranks 29th in ppg allowed and 4th in pace and have averaged 122.2 ppg in offence in their L/16 trips to the hardwood with 12 of those games going over the total.Meanwhile Memphis ranks 7th in pace and 23rd in ppg per allowed and are allowing a whopping 116.6 ppg on the road this season.  Based on my composite projections Im betting on the home side Atlanta , eclipsing the 122+ range with Memphis following suit in what is expected to be a high scoring affair by both me and the linesmakers.

The Hawks are 11-0 OVER L/11 off a win in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with a combined average of 249.2 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 254.9 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 15-1 OVER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 244.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Thanks to the Bucks domination of the NBA this season their lines are slightly bloated and as a result they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 like the Heat. Back in October the Heat who are 25-4 SU at home this season walked into Milwaukee and handed the Bucks a 131-126 loss, showing me they matchup well vs the Bucks. Now even though mighty Milwaukee wants revenge Im betting if they get it , it does not come easily, making getting points here golden in my humble opinion. 

The Bucks are 0-13 ATS /SU off a win when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game.The Bucks are 0-11 ATS SU on the road off a win when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game.

 NBA

Teams like the Heat are 10-0-1 ATS /11-0 SU as a favorite with rest off a home game in which they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.

Play on Miami to cover 

Orlando enters this game on tired legs as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. ORLANDO is 11-2 UNDER  in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. The Magic enter this game vs the Lilliardless Blazers off a 114-113 loss at San Antonio on Saturday night in a game they worked very hard in to try to pull off the upset. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER in home games off a road loss this season with the combined score clicking in at 193.5 ppg. The Magic are also 0-18 UNDER L/18   at home off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with the average combined score registering at 200.3 ppg. Meanwhile, NBA Teams like the Blazers are 1-15  UNDER L/16 as a road dog with rest off a 10+ loss in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint. Last time out the Blazers D, was smashed as they allowed 129 points in a loss and that in the past has resulted in a toned done more defensive mindset in their followup as is evident by  going Under is 7-3 UNDER in their  last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

ORLANDO is 17-5 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 204.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - good 3 point shooting team - making 36% or better  of their attempts, in March games are 140-89 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Warriors beat the Wizards 125-117 in Washington on Feb. 3, and Im expecting a similar output here today back in Oakland for the rematch. Golden State played last night in. an upset win vs the suns  so they will be on tired legs and their defensive capabilities may suffer which gives credence to my projections of a big time run and and gun Washington Wizards offensive output, which will result in the Warriors having to open up themselves with some offensive fireworks or be blown of the court. The Warriors are 13-0 OVER  l/13 with no rest off a win facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 247.6 ppg scored. The Warriors are 11-0 OVER with no rest off a win with a combined average of 247.5 ppg. 

The Wizards own the worst ppg D, in the league, 6th fastest pace and 6th best ppg offfence in the league and have allowed more than 123 ppg on the road this season. 

The Wizards are 10-0 OVER L/10 on the road off a loss in a road game with a combined average of 152.9 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Wizards are 31-5-3 OVER L/39 as a favorite with less than two days rest after they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers.

Play OVER 

The Lakers have won all three meetings as the teams prepare to finish the season series Sunday night in New Orleans , but today Im betting the Pelicans get some revenge and give the Lakers something to think about. The Lakers' NBA-record streak of 18 consecutive road victories against Western Conference opponents ended last time out, vs Memphis and their vulnerable once again here in this Bayou visit. NBA Teams like Lakers are 0-14-1 ATS/0-15 SU L/15 on the road off a 10+ loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game. The Lakers are 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a game as a favorite in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 better than their season-to-date average.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Clippers crushed the Denver Nuggets 132-103 in a matchup of Western Conference contenders last time out, and now in their current form Im betting they will once again explode offensively  vs a Philadelphia team playing without  Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.  I expect the Clippers to take this chance to really bring the heat here today vs a shorthanded Eastern Conference contender, that beat them 110-103 in Philly back on Feb 11. The Clippers   according the my projections will put up in the 117+ point range offensively while the Sixers put +105 ppg on the scoreboard. 

The Clippers are 11-0 OVER L/12 at home with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 237.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 43-18 L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Suns are off a 113-111 loss last night to the Detroit Pistons and are now playing on tired legs as they play back to back games and vulnerable to having a inconsistent game which is not unfamiliar territory for them. With Golden States Andrew Wiggins being upgraded to probable Saturday vs Phoenix ( Back ) Im betting the Warriors will be competitive and get us the cover. 

The Warriors are 11-0 ATS L/11 on the road with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game.

The Suns are 0-14 ATS /2-12 SU as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game , with the 2 wins coming by 1 point and 6 points. 

Home favorites (PHOENIX) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 6-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Teams like the Warriors are 15-0-1 ATS /13-3 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ loss in which they had 5 or fewer offensive boards.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing on back-to-back days are 9-34 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Magic took the first meeting of the year from San Antonio, 111-109, on Nov. 15 in Orlando and now have revenge on board. . The Spurs have won 15 of the last 20 meetings overall between the teams and eight of the last 10 at home and SAN ANTONIO is 31-9 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

The Spurs are 10-0 ATS /SU L/10 as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a loss after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits. 

 ORLANDO is 0-9 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Los Angeles Lakers may not know if LeBron James is available to play Saturday until close to tip-off , but if he does play he will be less than 100% as its never easy playing with a sore groin which makes the Lakers less formidable than usual. Add to that Danny Green is out, and we have a situation where the slumping and desperate  Grizzlies look to be competitive. 

The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS L/11 at home with no rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. 

Lakers Vogel is 9-23 ATS  in road games off a win against a division rival in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies

The public loves to bet Zion and company overs, and the lines-makers are offering them an option to do what they love to do and that is  bet the over at what I feel is a slightly bloated number ( 1 possession -3). This reminds me of a saying from the Late Jimmy the Greek, The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. 

Which leads me into my contrarian wager here as a I recommend we take the under. It must be noted that the Cavaliers are off a huge win at home last time out as underdogs vs the Sixers and will now Im betting be in a letdown situation.  Which brings into play this trend that shows CLEVELAND is 13-3 UNDER off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

 Teams like the Cavaliers  are 1-18 UNDER L/19 on the road off a 10+ win as a dog in which they had at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent with the average combined score of 183.2 ppg scored.The Cavaliers are also  0-15 UNDER L/15 as a dog off a win as a home dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with the average combined score of those tilts ringing  at 201.3 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 33-12 UNDER UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The slumping Miami Heat have lost two straight games to two of the NBA's five-worst teams -- the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, but here I am ready to back them  tonight at home on a short line. Why you might ask? Well this Heat team is well coached side that has played their bests hoops at home this season as is evident by a 23-4 record as hosts. Also buying low on this type of team  because of recency biases makes for what I consider a viable  betting opportunity.

The Heat are 18-3 ATS /SU with rest off a loss in which they had at least 25% of their points from free throws.

MIAMI is 15-7 ATS  as a home favorite this season and  is 14-3 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 15-2 ATS  in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Miami is 15-2 L/17 vs Dallas and have won 5 straight overall meetings. 

Play on Miami to cover 

The Minnesota Timberwolves ended a 5 game losing streak with a huge upset win vs the Miami Heat on the road last time out, but now Im betting they will experience regression to the. mean and  a letdown vs a Orlando side that has won 4 of their L/5 and up trending in my power rankings. Note: NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 3-38 SU L/23 years in their followup game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.1 ppg which qualifies under a ATS parameter like we have here in Orlando tonight. ORLANDO is 23-11 ATS   versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg. 

The Timberwolves are 0-15 ATS /SU L/15 on the road with less than two days rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.4 ppg. 

The Magic are 13-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a road game when the total is at least 15 points more than their season-to-date average with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.5 ppg with 11 of the 13 games by more than 8 ppg. 

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Sacramentos last two road games both wins have featured top tier defensive efforts, holding the Clippers to just 103 points and the Warriors to 94 points. Their successes will have them continue to concentrate on playing top tier D, and this Im betting contributes to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this slightly bloated number.

OKLAHOMA CITY in 20 games when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season have seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-3 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. 

The Thunder are 0-10 UNDER L/10 with less than two days rest off a win as a road favorite in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 37-14 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Going from sea level in Portland and than traveling to the high altitudes of Utah, in the 2nd part of a back and back road games, makes for a situation where I expect the Celtics to be a little slower than usual and for a Jazz team in desperate need of shoring up a bleeding defence to  make a concerted effort  at turning this into a  physical affair that I project to stay on the low side of the total. BOSTON is 15-5 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. UTAH is 21-6 UNDER  off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more with a combined average of 195.1 ppg going on the board. ( Phoenix lit up the Jazz at home 131-111) 

The Jazz are 0-14-2 UNDER l/16 as a home favorite with rest off a loss after a game in which their opponents points per field goal attempt was better than 1.5 with a combined average 188.4 ppg scored.

The Celtics are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after they had assists on less than 45 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 183.1 ppg going on the board.  

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record ARE 55-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota has a one way modus operandi and that is full throttle take no prisoners basketball that pays very little attention to defence ranking 7th in pace in the league and 27th in pgg allowed and a respectable 13th in offensive ppg output . Meanwhile, Miami plays a different style of hoops, and a slower pace, but will have to adjust a bit to the Wolves speedy style as has been the case over the last 5 games, as the Heat have combined with their opponents to average 231.4 ppg and have gone over in 4 straight tilts. The Heat overall have averaged 116.9 ppg at home this season, and Im betting on that number being eclipsed here and for the Wolves to chase and get themselves into the +110 range offensively, which will result in a over. 

The Timberwolves are 15-0 OVER L/`15 as a dog off a loss as a dog in which they had assists on less than 45 percent of their field goals with the 3 most recent games in this subset dating back to last season seeing 243,240, and 256 combined ppg going on the board. 

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 135-63 OVER L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Teams like the Wolves are 23-4 OVER L/27 as a 8+ dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Heat are 22-1 OVER L/23 as a favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored.

NBA

The Heat are 11-0 OVER L/11 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 231.3 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER  

According to my projections there is value backing  Zion and  company when he is in the lineup for New Orleans  as they are posting a +23.2 Net Rating which matches up well vs the Lakers unit. After the Lakers hard back and forth affair against Boston last time out that saw them win 114-112 im betting their are in letdown situation. 

The Pelicans are 21-3 ATS L/24 off a game as a favorite in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS L/10 as a 8+ dog facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range. 

The Lakers are 1-16 ATS L/17 at home after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. The Lakers are 2-17-1 ATS L/19 at home after a game as a home favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paintThe Lakers are 4-21 ATS L/15 at home off a win when they won 4 straight vs current opponent

The Lakers are 0-9 ATS L/9 as a home favorite off a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

Play on the Pelicans to cover 

Oklahoma City has played their best hoops on the road this season and are currently on a 8 game road win streak, and tonight against  Bulls team that just snapped a 8 game losing streak, Im betting they once again have an advantage.

The Bulls are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 at home off a win in a home game and  are 0-12 ATS/SU at home off a win in a home game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with the average ppg diff clicking in at -17.9 ppg. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 at home with rest off a home game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff registering at -13.9 ppg. 

The Thunder are 16-0-1 ATS /15-2 SU on the road with less than two days rest.

The Thunder are 16-0 ATS /14-2 SU on the road with less than two days rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

The Thunder are 16-1-1 ATS /15-3 SU on the road.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

Kawhi Leonard said the Los Angeles Clippers weren't ready to play Saturday before losing at home to the Sacramento Kings. He doesn't expect that to be the case Monday when the Clippers host the Memphis Grizzlies. With the Grizzlies expected to be  without power forward Jaren Jackson Jr., who sustained a sprained left knee late in the second quarter against the Lakers last time out, Im  betting the Grizzlies wont have enough offensive to hand with a talented hungry redemption minded team with revenge on board for loss to Memphis earlier this season . LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 14.3 ppg. 

Play on LA Clippers to cover 

The Suns are off a hard fought win vs the Bulls in Chicago last time out and now go against a hungry Utah Jazz team that has lost two straight including one as home fav vs the Rockets by a 120-110 count . It must be noted that the Suns have not won back to back games since back in mid January, and Im betting they lose again tonight and more importantly fail to cover vs a very motivated opponent. ( Utah has won 10 straight at home in this series with the 4 most  recent battles dating back to 2018 have all seen DD victories with the last 3 coming by 33, 28, 28 points respectively. Rinse and repeat tonight. 

The Jazz are 12-0 ATS /SU L/12 with rest off a 10+ loss as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end winning by an average of 15 ppg.

NBA Teams like the Jazz are 18-1 ATS /SU L/19 as a favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in which they had fewer than 15 foul with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. 

The Jazz are 10-0 ATS /SU L/10 as a favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in a home game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff registering at +13.1 ppg. 

The Suns are 0-11 ATS /SU off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.3 ppg. 

Play on Utah to cover 

The Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic are trending in opposite directions of late.Brooklyn  has won 8 of their L/12 since losing five in a row to top tier  teams from Jan. 14-23.The Nets have six victories vs below.500 teams during the 12 game subset  with  seven wins coming by double digits margins while  allowing just  105.4 points. From a SRS standpoint: Orlando owns a -1.37 SRS ranking 19th in the league while Brooklyns number clicks in at -0.58 ranking 15th in the league. With an obligatory home court advantage thrown in im estimating this number should be closer to -4, thus giving us value with the Nets. Note:Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Brooklyn lost the first meeting in this series this season back in January on the road and should be motivated to get redemption tonight. 

The Magic are 2-18 ATS /3-17 SU on the road with more than one day of rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with 10 straight losses all coming by more than this number.The Magic are 1-13-1 ATS /1-14 SU as a dog with rest off a loss facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with every loss in the subset coming by at least 5 ppg or more. ORLANDO is 0-8 ATS  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.

NBA Teams  like the Nets are 16-0 ATS /SU L/16 at home with rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 12 turnovers per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 in the past 12 home meetings with Orlando. BROOKLYN is 31-16 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a for 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

This is obviously a high total and there was a time when I would be looking for value on the under. But now in the new NBA the league facilitates entertaining  back and forth affairs which their fan base obviously embraces. In recent meetings these teams have taken part in take no prisoners run and gun offensive slugfests with the average combined score of the L/3 meetings  clicking in at 268 ppg. 

Milwaukee runs the No.1 ranked pace and the most explosive offence in the league , while the Wizards, rank 6th in ppg output and 6th in pace, but rank last in the league in defence ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The x factor here is the Bucks top tier D, but it must be noted that WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER  versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or better  over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of those games clicking in at a whopping 266 points per game and overall Brooks is 10-0 OVER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or better as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average score of 253.5 ppg going on the score board.

The Wizards are 18-1 OVER L/19 as a dog off a loss in a road game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The tanking Chicago Bulls bring an ugly  eight-game losing streak when they host the Washington Wizards on Sunday evening. With this being the Bulls 2nd game in two nights, im betting their tired legs wont provide them with a desperation win vs a wizards side that is up trending in power rankings. CHICAGO is 4-17 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Bulls are 0-12-1 ATS /0-13 SU L/13 at home off a home game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

 NBA Teams like the Bulls are 2-17 ATS/SU L/19 with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which their turnovers increased by at least 10 from the game before. 

The Wizards are 11-1 ATS/10-2 L/12 when the line is within 3 of pick after they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 129-82 ATS L/23 seasons for a long term 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wizards to cover 

The thunder are playing with a great deal of confidence as is evident by their 34-22 record and have momentum as they are  fresh off  dismantling of the Denver Nuggets in crunch time for a 113-101 statement win on Friday. The reason Im willing to lay the 5 points here with the Thunder is their ability in close games to finish off their opponents  as this metric will explain: Thunder won the league's  -best plus-27.3 net rating in a league-high 38 games that feature a score within five points in the last five minutes of regulation. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. 

The Spurs are 1-12 ATS/SU as a dog with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS L/8 off a win in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home.

The Thunder are 12-0 ATS/SU at home off a win as a home favorite when they are off two games in which they had double-digit steals are 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 37-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.9 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

While the Timberwolves are struggling with 16 losses in 17 games, they enter  this tilt   having played Denver tough in the first three meetings. They lost by two points in overtime and fell by seven points and nine points and Im betting on them hanging tough again and getting is the cover. Note: Denver lost their first game after the break at Denver, in a hard fought affair, and may still be feeling the letdown emotional effects of that tilt which brings into play this trend...The Nuggets are 0-10 ATS L/10 at home after a game with 8+ lead changes.

Timberwolves are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Denver.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Raptors squeaked out a 119-118 home victory on Feb. 5 and had a 115-106 road win over the Pacers two nights later. Both came during Toronto's franchise-best 15-game winning streak. Tonight Im betting on the Pacers hanging tough again, and getting us the cover. Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

The Raptors are 0-11 ATS off a 10+ win in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP.

Play on Indiana to cover 

Two top tier teams one from the West and one from the East do battle this afternoon in LA as the Lakers host the Celtics .Its an early start and Im leaning on an under here in what should be a chippy post season type affair. The Lakers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency in the league  6th in ppg per game allowed behind the 12th ranked pace, while the Celtics ranked 3rd in ppg allowed and operate fairly slowly behind the 17th rank pace.  The time of the game, the metrics and also my projections estimate the total should be closer to 221 thus giving us more than 1 possession of value on this number. 

Under is 21-8 in Celtics last 29 games as an underdog.Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games as a road underdog.Under is 21-9 in Celtics last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 41-18 in Lakers last 59 games as a home favorite.

BOSTON is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg going on the board.

The Lakers are 0-12-1 UNDER L/12 off a 10+ win in a home game when they are playing a non-conference game with two conference games before after with a combined average score of 183.2 ppg scored. 

The Celtics are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15 with less than two days rest off a win in a road game when they are off two games in which they had more than 25 fouls with a combined average of 186.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 55-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 55-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

 The Sixers bring a five-game road skid into Saturday nights  tilt vs tbhe  NBA-best Milwaukee Bucks. I know the Sixers continue to get respect, but they are highly inconsistent, and a team as I myself describe a clunky.  Add to that the 76ers seem to have brought unnecessary attention to themselves with narcissistic comments by Embid who at the  the All-Star Game,  was quoted as saying. QUOTE just proving I'm here, I belong, and being the best player in the world, I just intend to keep coming out every single night and just play hard and trying to get wins and just go out and try to win a championship," Embiid told reporters after the game. END QUOTE: What he said , should have the Bucks talking among themselves, and  now Im betting they will be out to send a message to the young self described king of the court  tonight .

Teams like the Bucks  are 24-0 SU/ 23-1 ATS while covering by more than 12.6 ppg  as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a road game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint. The Bucks are q perfect 26-0 / 23-3 AT L/26 as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.

The Seventysixers are 0-12 ATS /2-10 SU on the road with rest off a win after a win in which they trailed by double digits with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -8.6 ppg. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

I was appalled how badly the Bulls played at home last night vs a Charlotte team that they should have handled. There is some deep seeded issues that must be dealt with in the off season with the Bulls. I know playing without  without Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr.  are hurting them but the rest of the team should have been able to pick up the slack. Now  Im taking this chance to fade the Bulls on a short line vs a Suns team that has shown alot more fight,  and off a decent effort vs the defending champion Toronto Raptors last night. The Suns are 20-2 ATS /21-1 SU as a road favorite off a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

The Bulls are 1-19 ATS /SU as a home dog with rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.The Bulls are 0-11-1 ATS /0-12 SU at home off a home game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA

Teams like the Bulls are 0-11 ATS/SU L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a home favorite after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. 

Play on Phoenix to cover 

The Kings are coming off a 129-125 victory over the visiting Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday and Im betting they come right at the Clippers here this afternoon in a tilt I have projected to go over the set total. Note: The Kings blew out the Clippers 124-103 in their last meeting in Los Angeles on Jan. 30. 

The Clippers are 13-1 OVER with rest off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 247.1 ppg scored. 

NBATeams like the Clippers are 19-2 OVER as a home favorite off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. 

The Kings are 9-0-1 OVER L/10 as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game with a combined average score of 236.8 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The new look Wolves will send out the down town trio D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman and Malik Beasley to the court today in a home game that will see this team ready to turn a corner. With Boston taking on the  LA Lakers this weekend , Im betting they may not be fully focused here in this spot, giving us value with the. home dog. 

NBA Teams like the Celtics are 1-15 ATS /SU on the road with rest off a win after scoring 15+ points more than Vegas projected.The Celtics are 1-11 ATS/SU on the road off a win as a favorite in which they had overtime.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The new look Wolves will send out the down town trio D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman and Malik Beasley to the court today in a home game and Im betting they will force a capable Celtics team into a old fashion run and gun affair that eclipses this total. Both are fresh and rested and both should will be prepared to make this into a track meet. 

MINNESOTA is 24-9 OVER  in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. 

The Timberwolves are 17-0 OVER L/17 after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with every game in the subset eclipsing this total -average combined score in those tilts rings in at 236.5 ppg. 

NBA 

Teams like the Wolves are 19-2 OVER L/21 with rest off a loss as a home favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a. combined average score of 236 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

DeAndre Ayton is upgraded to probable Friday vs Toronto ( Ankle ) which will be a big boost for the Suns in this game vs the defending champs. I know the Suns have been highly inconsistent this season, but with Toronto expected to be without Norman Powell and Marc Gasol their short handed and vulnerable. 

The Suns are 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road with rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

The Raptors are 0-12 ATS L/12 off a loss as a road favorite after being outscored in the paint by double digit

Phoenix is 12-0 ATS L/12 games in this series.  

Suns HC Williams is 104-69 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Phoenix to cover 

Indiana's successes and failures on predicated on  their defensive play, as they rank only 21st in the NBA in offensive output, and 9th in ppg allowed, behind a slower grinding type of play that has them ranked 25th in pace. Meanwhile, NYK ranks 28 in offensive output and 21st in pace . Considering both sides modus operandi  my projections make this total one possession off the mark, which has me leaning strongly  to the under. 

The Pacers are 0-11 UNDER L/11 on the road with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 182.2  ppg scored. 

 The Knicks are 3-18-1 UNDER L/22 as a home dog off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored. 

 INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. 

NEW YORK is 10-2 UNDER as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 209. 6 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Knicks are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13  with more than one day of rest off a 10+ loss as a home favorite after a game with 8+ lead changes with a combined average of 209 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 44-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games are 51-19 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Washington ranks 6th in the NBA in offensive ppg output, and rank dead last at 30th in the league in defense , behind the 6th ranked pace. Its obvious when the Wizards go on the court, you better be prepared to run and score non stop or be blown off the court. With the Wizards fresh after the all star break you can bet they will come out of the gates , like their hairs on fire and will force Cleveland to reciprocate with offensive fireworks of their own.

NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 as a road dog off a 10+ win as a dog in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 243.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Wizards  are 14-0-1 OVER  L/15 off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with a combined average of 242.4 ppg scored.

The Wizards are 18-1 OVER at home with more than one day of rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 238.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

I know Chicago lost 6 straight entering the All Star break, but thats makes them all the more hungry, and now  Im betting they are more than capable of taking out a inconsistent Charlotte side that has lost 20 of their 30 road games this season, with average overall diff clicking in at -8.9 ppg. 

The Hornets are 0-12 ATS /SU L/12 on the road with rest off a game as a dog after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.

The Hornets are 1-16 ATS /0-17 SU as a road dog off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 33-0 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualifies under the perimeters of this side wager. 

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Chicago