Boston scored 140 points for the second time this season last time out and has reached triple digits in five of its past seven games and my projections estimate the Celtics  a team that averages +115 ppg at home this season should score in the +112 point range here tonight at home vs the Bulls  that despite of a good defensive performance last time out . Previous to that game the Bulls allowed 111, 118, 123, 116 points respectively . Note: BOSTON is 13-4 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 11-3 OVER  when they allow 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored.

The Bulls are 13-1-1 OVER L/15  as a road dog with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average of 231.9 ppg going on the board.

NBA Teams like the Celtics and Bulls  are 15-1-1 OVER L/17 with rest after they had a field goal percentage of at least 50 a free throw percentage of at least 85 with a combined average of 232.5 ppg . 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER 

Coach Alvin Gentry stated that Holiday is more likely to return for Thursday's game, which basically means  Monday he wont play  as he continues to deal with a strained elbow. Derrick Favors (hamstring) and JJ Redick (hamstring) are both questionable to play.  Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram will get added minutes, but they have been far from cohesive and are not reliable starters. I know Blake Griffin is out for the Pistons but here at home vs a banged up Pelicans team that have an edge. The Pelicans are 0-14 ATS /SU l/14 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.

NEW ORLEANS is 15-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 38-12 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Atlanta is pretty banged up with Trae Young just  added to the injury report due to left hamstring pain. He and De'Andre Hunter (foot) are questionable. Bruno Fernando (personal) remains away from the team. It must be noted young had 86 points combined in this L/2 games vs Brooklyn, and with him banged up his offence out-put Im betting will be curtailed if he plays. With Brooklyns Kyrie Irving returning to the floor, it looks like this total has been adjusted upward of where my line projections set at 224, which is a two possession discrepancy. There are just to many injuries for the Hawks to have flow here tonight and Irving despite of a huge emotional lift for his team, will still  be restricted minute wise and will take time to blend in again and provide his team with positive offensive flow . 

ATLANTA is 10-2 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season are a combined average of 214 ppg. 

Note: the Hawks are 0-21 UNDER L/21 after at least 1 day rest and having held their previous opponent to less than 40% field goals and 20 fast break points and the Hawks having at least two steals in that game(which was the case vs free wheeling Washington offence last time out)

The Nets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 with less than two days rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 211.8 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Danny Green out, LeBron James out and the hobbled  Anthony Davis likely out because this is a back to back . the Lakers will be shorthanded on Saturday and fade material here against a hard working Oklahoma City Thunder side , that would love to put a beating on the Lakers in this spot.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

Detroit lost a 115-112 overtime decision to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. Thats not a good omen for Motown covering here as NBA Teams like the Bulls are 12-0 ATS  L/12 as a road dog off a loss in which their opponent had overtime. The Pistons have also not had much luck vs the Bulls of late, and have lost all 3 meetings. Pistons are 0-14 ATS /SU when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent and are 0-7 ATS  when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent this season. The Bulls are 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds.Casey is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game as the coach of DETROIT.

Play on Chicago to cover 

The Celtics had a losing streak reach three games for the first time when they fell 109-98 to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Boston has dropped each of its last two games by double-digit margins, including a 15-point loss to the San Antonio Spurs its last time at home and are now in desperation mode here at home again tonight. With that said, I expect the Green Clovers to come right at the Pelicans and to obliterate their porous D, that ranks 28th in ppg allowed  with an all out assault and for the Pelicans to answer back behind their 8th ranked offensive output (113.3 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace and for this total to be obliterated. 

New Orleans has gone over 7 straight times.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Pelicans  are 20-4 OVER L/24 on the road when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 54-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER 

The Celtics are in desperation mode and ready to come out here with all guns blazing as they look to attempt to halt their current 3 game losing streak. With True Holiday and Derrick Favours out  for the Pelicans today the Clovers have a big edge .  The Celtics are 24-1 ATS /25-0 SU as a favorite with rest off a game as a dog after being outscored in the paint by double digit.The Pelicans are 2-18 ATS L/20/1-19 SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 better than their season-to-date average.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Defense has been an issue recently for the Los Angeles Clippers. However, they've had four days to work on it before they host the struggling Golden State Warriors and should be very ready to play a shut down game here on rested legs, which to me suggests a blowout situation. The Clippers hammered the Warriors 141-122 on Oct. 24. Rinse and repeat at hand tonight as teams now have a chance to give back some the nasty medicine the Warriors forced on opponents over an extended period of time in the last decade. No Mercy rule in effect. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 ATS  when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Teams like the Clippers are 19-2 ATS /21-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.9 ppg.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Sacramento will be short handed and banged up for tonights game against the explosive Milwaukee Bucks with Richaun Holmes and Bogdan Bogdanovic  laready  ruled out, while Cory Joseph and Nemanja Bjelica sat out Thursday’s practice due to bumps, bruises and illness. Advantage Bucks as their super star Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected play.

The Bucks are 19-1 ATS /20-1 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.2. 

The Kings are 0-16 ATS /0-16 SU as a home dog off a win as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.8. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - excellent defensive team (41.5% or less ) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-6 ATS L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

This is a young Grizzlies team that is suppose to be rebuilding, but what most pundits are missing is how talented they are and how consistent they have been of late. I know their opponents the Spurs have the bigger names, and respected franchise pedigree but , what they dont have is consistency and work ethic and that  is why Im backing the home side tonight to get the cover. The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS /SU L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick after they had a field goal percentage of at least 50 a free throw percentage of at least 85. (Which was the case last time out.The Grizzlies are also 10-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a favorite after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.

The Spurs are 1-16-1 ATS /1-17 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a 10+ win in a road game.

Play on Memphis to cover 

 Memphis ranks 10th in offence, and 27 in ppg allowed on defence, behind a 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile. San Antonio ranks 6th in ppg on offence,  and 25th in pgg allowed on D, behind the 12 ranked pace. Needless to say the odds are suggesting a fairly high scoring affair here. Question is how many combined points can both teams accumulate here. My answer and projections estimate north of 230 . Note:SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or worse this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scoredAN ANTONIO is 23-9 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.The Grizzlies are 12-1 OVE$R L/12 facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with a combined average 236.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Brooklyns C LeVert is getting healthy again and hes now ready tp play a full game, with no minute restrictions, and Im betting we now see more flow from what was clunky Brooklyn offence . Meanwhile, the Heat are showing themselves to be atop tier team this season, but have had issues against lower tier teams , as was evident by recent losses vs Orlando and Washington . Meanwhile, BROOKLYN is 22-10 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%or better ) over the last 3 seasons.

The Nets are 10-0 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times.

The Heat are 0-12 ATS /L/12 as a road favorite off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint

The Heat are 1-13 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be severely short-handed for their game against the visiting Boston Celtics on Thursday.All-Star center Joel Embiid will miss the game with a dislocated left ring finger. Meanwhile, Bostons star forward Kemba Walker, who had missed the previous three games with flu-like symptoms, played 18 minutes while on a minutes restriction last time out, and should get more time tonight. Tonight Im expecting a Celtics team with redemption and revenge on mind for two losses in this series earlier this season and two current overall losses to have an edge on a value line. BOSTON is 9-1 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.

BOSTON is 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 39-19 SU L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Celtics to cover 

These two teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. Houston has won 11 of their L/14 SU while, Atlanta has lost 12 of their L/14 overall,  and when these teams met earlier this season, the divergence in talent was on full display as the Rockets smashed the Hawks by a 158-111 count. I know Atlanta has revenge on board, but Im betting they dont have the legs to get redemption as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights against a visitor that is fresh and on 4 days rest. 

ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 30-1 SU L/23 seasons, with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.2 ppg which qualify as a positive league wide trends situations when applied to  this offered side number. 

NBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 45-15 ATS L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets 

Play on Houston to cover 

Kemba vWalker might be out for the Celtics but they are still capable of getting offensive production from their bench vs a Spurs side that has been defensively challenged this season. Im betting tonight the Celtics  will have no choice but to do some running and gunning vs a Spurs side , starting to heat up , and are off a win vs mighty Milwaukee last time out, by a 126-104 count thanks to an uptick in their beyond the arc shooting .

SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 231.1 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 11-2 OVER in non-conference games this season with a combined average 232 ppg scored. 

The Spurs are 13-0 OVER  as a dog for the second straight game with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning teams are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Raptors are banged up with a boat load full of injuries and fade material in their current condition and form. Team scoring leader Pascal Siakam remains out with a groin injury. The Raptors were also without Fred VanVleet (hamstring), Marc Gasol (hamstring) and Norman Powell (shoulder) on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Charlotte despite of a overall dismal record has shown some life of late winning and covering 2 of their L/3 and get my support to get us a cover here tonight.

The Raptors are 0-15 ATS /3-12 SU  off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters

 Play on Charlotte to cover 

The superior team here is obviously the LA Lakers, but it has also become obvious that the Lakers have a tendency of conserving energy and not going full throttle against most of their lesser opponents which is like to resting players. The Lakers have not seen a more than 13 point margin of victory  in almost a month spanning 12 games and tonight Im betting the Knicks keep this run alive with a cover .  NEW YORK is 8-0 ATS  in road games after playing a road game this season ( they are currently playing their 3rd road  in a west coast trip)

  LA LAKERS are 1-10 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 7-21 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Memphis Grizzlies continue to uptrend in my power rankings as they go for  their  straight win  and 9th in their L/15 when  they open a six-game home stand against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  The Grizzlies have momentum and confidence entering tilt behind an explosive cohesive offence that is off an impressive 140-114 rout of the Los Angeles Clippers and followed up by a 121-114 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. As far as this tilt vs a very banged up Minnesota Wolves team is concerned , that matchup very well here, as is evident by two previous victories in this series this season via a 137-121 home win on Nov. 6, and  a 115-107 victory in Minneapolis on Dec. 1. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening in Memphis vs a Wolves side that has lost 8 of their L/10 on the road. Memphis has won 3 of their L/4 meetings at home in this series and 7 of the L/9  meetings overall . 

Play on Memphis 

Oklahoma City played last night but are well conditioned and Im betting will still have the energy to be physical with the Nets, a team that is suffering offensively of late. This tilt has the ear marking of   setting  a slower more methodical pace as one team tries to per-serve energy for a-second half surge and the other just trying to right their sinking ship. Note: The Thunder work off the 6th slowest pace in the NBA and 12th ranked ppg allowed D. 

BROOKLYN is 8-0 UNDER  in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.1 ppg scored. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-4 UNDER  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

The Thunder are 0-23 to the UNDER when the line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they allowed 50-plus points in the paint and they are facing a team that has averaged fewer than 55 points in the paint.

Play UNDER 

Cleveland is in complete disarray with key starters like Kevin Love not getting along with HC Altman , and the team as whole showing little or no chemistry. Meanwhile, Detroit despite of playing without Blake Griffin are a team, that gets along and plays hard as a unit and Im betting their work ethic gets them to the promised land tonight and provides us with a cover.

Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Cavaliers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Cavaliers are 22-51 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season

NBA Home teams (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 47-93 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Detroit to cover 

Detroits banged up and on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights, and Im betting they will play this game a reduced pace  vs a Cleveland team showing less and less offensive cohesiveness of late averaging just 101.2 ppg behind the 23rd ranked pace in the NBA . Note: DETROIT is 16-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.4 ppg scored. 

DETROIT is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Raptors are banged up and Im betting they slow this game down and rely on their bench to play top tier D here tonight in a game I have projected to stay on the low side of the total.

PG] 01/06/2020 - Fred VanVleet is downgraded to doubtful Tuesday vs Portland ( Hamstring )[C] 12/19/2019 - Marc Gasol is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )[SF] 12/19/2019 - Norman Powell is out indefinitely ( Shoulder )[PF] 12/19/2019 - Pascal Siakam is out indefinitely ( Groin )

PORTLAND is 28-15 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.8 ppg scored. 

The Trailblazers are 0-17 UNDER  in the history of the franchise as a road dog off a loss as a road dog in which Damian Lillard had 30-plus points with a combined average 194.2 ppg scored with none of the total eclipsing this number.

Play UNDER 

The Bulls continue to play at a very high level on the defensive side of the court and protect the perimeter with a take no prisoners attitude. The Bulls have held their opposition  to the fourth-lowest 3PT% (.334)  conversion rate in the league which will be of ultra importance here tonight against a Dallas group which ranks  second in beyond the arc conversion rate this season.  The Bulls struggle to score ranking 25th in ppg behind what has recently been a  slow pace on a regular basis and with some injury woes ie (Markkanen) out with an injury this will be the case again, which in turn will highlight the need to be even more stringent offensively, which Im betting holds down the combined points total here this evening to the low side of the number. Note: Dallas is also playing a markedly slower pace of late, and now rank 20th in in the NBA in pace. 

Play UNDER

New Orleans has been playing very well of late and have won 5 of their L/6 overall,  but that will have Utah wide awake and ready to compete vs a uptrending side. The Jazz are also playing their best hoops of the season , winning 10 of their L/11 SU and have coved 6 straight times.  UTAH is 14-4 ATS  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6 ppg. 

Utah is 10-1 ATS L/11 overall and have won and covered their 4 most trips to the Bayou to take on the Pelicans.

Play on Utah to cover

Oklahoma City has been playing some very good basketball of late, and have won  9 of tjheir L/10 and covered 7 of their L/8 behind  a stingy defence that has allowed 101.1 ppg in their L/5 overall all  of which were wins. That Im betitng will be key to them being competetive vs a slumping Phaildephia team that is completely out of rythm and on a 4 game losing streak. Yes, I know the Sixers are desperate and have played their best hoops at home this season ( 16-2), but in their current form cannot be trusted to cover this wide a spread vs a streaking side that is built to throw offences out of their flow.  Oklahoma City is 20-1 SU L/21 in this series and get my support to cover here tonight. 

Play on Oklahoma city to cover

The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing well of late, winning 8 of their L/14 SU and are a vialbe underdog here vs a side that they have already played twice this season. and have notched a v115-108 victory at Phoenix . According to my projections Memphis in their current form matchup very well vs the Suns, and get my support here getting points. PHOENIX is 2-11 ATS  in home games after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

The Grizzlies are 13-0 ATS /9-4 SU as a dog off a win in a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals.

The Suns are 0-14-1 ATS L/15 as a home favorite off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Sunday games are 46-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Grizzlies to cover

The Clippers were pounded 140-114 by the visiting Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday and are obviously not in a groove. I know NY may not inspire bettors, but if Leonard does not play tonight which is higly likely since he is not played in back to back games, this season, the Knicks can hang here and get us the cover.

The Clippers are 1-18 ATS L/19 at home with less than two days rest off a home game when they won 3 straight vs current opponent.

The Clippers are 1-22 ATS L/23 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a home game when they won 2 straight vs current opponet.

 NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 49-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate flor bettors. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Clippers got blasted by the Memphis Grizzlies yesterday a 140-114 count . It was an ugly defensive showing by the Clippers and today I expect they try to repair their proverbial defensive damn by slowing this game down and concentrating on their transition game. This Im betting directly effects this total to the low side of the number. 

NEW YORK is 18-8 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the lal/31st 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored.  The Knicks are 4-26-1 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams are 5-33-1 UNDER L/39 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they had assists on less than 45 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 202.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 42-17 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow

Brooklyn has shown very little cohesive flow in their L/ 10 games, with the offense having averaged 108 points on 44.4 percent field goal shooting, including 32.8 percent from 3-point range. That's not a good omen for their offensive output today vs a Toronto side that has held their L/4 opponents to 97 points or less. This tilt has an under written all over it even though the Nets have formerly inured Levert back in the lineup after a long injury layoff. 

The Raptors are 1-11-1 UNDER L/13 on the road facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 202 ppg scored.

Teams like the Nets  are 0-14-2 UNDER L/16 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a road game when they are off two games in which they allowed their opponent to score 10+ more than they usually allow with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Pistons are banged up and short handed for this tilt vs the Clippers  with Blake Griffin doubtful and Markieff Morris  ruled out.The Pistons are 4-12 on the road, while the Clippers are 14-3 at home. This is a tale of two polar opposites, and Im not going to be shy about laying points here with this spot play. DETROIT is 3-15 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.8 ppg.The Pistons are 0-11 ATS /SU  as a 8+ dog with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.2 ppg. 

The Clippers are 13-1 ATS/13-1SU as a home favorite with rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

With Caris LeVert and Kyrie Irving out of the Brooklyn lineup with injuries they are looking clunkier by the day , and are struggling with flow and particularly their 3 point shooting which has become a concern. Tonight against a Dallas team off a game where they blew a late lead on the road to Oklahoma City,  Im betting the rebound redemption minded Mavericks will be primed to romp vs a down trending side. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS /11-1 SU after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.2 . 

NBA teams like the Mavs  are 24-4 ATS/26-2 SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent.

NBA Teams like the Nets are 2-21-1 ATS L/2-22 SU  with more than one day of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

Play on Dallas to cover

The Thunder head to San Antonio after a emotional   hard fought 106-101 home win over the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. Chris Paul scored 17 points -- including 13 in the final 4:31 -- to help erase a seven-point deficit with less than three minutes remaining. Now in a letdown spot vs a Spurs that  are playing better of late, Im betting the Thunder are fade material in what has been a hall of horrors( AT&T Center)  for them as is evident by 9 straight regular season losses here.

SAN ANTONIO is 33-19 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

The Thunder are 0-11 ATS /2-9 SU off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.

NBA Teams  like the Thunder are 0-11 ATS /1-10 SUL/11 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Wolves have listed seven players on their injury report prior to Wednesday's tilt vs Milwaukee. Karl-Anthony Towns (knee), Andrew Wiggins (illness), and Jake Layman (toe) won't play, Teague is doubtful, Treveon Graham (illness) and Noah Vonleh (glute) are questionable, and Josh Okogie (elbow) is probable. This is a complete whitewash situation, in the making as Im betting the powerful Bucks will romp to an easy one sided victory here today. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Kings may not inspire bettors in their current form but they have performed well vs tp tier sides like the Clippers of late. Note: Walton is 11-2 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

 The Kings are 15-0 ATS /13-2 SU at home with less than two days rest after they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals.The Kings are 13-0 ATS L/13 as a dog off a loss as a dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.The Kings are 18-2 ATS L/20 off a loss as a road dog in which they shot over 50% from the field.

The Clippers are 0-10 ATS L/10 3-7 SU with more than one day of rest off a 10+ loss after a game that was tied 5+ times.The Clippers are 1-13 ATS L/14 as a road favorite with rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Sixers  despite of playing top tier basketball at home  as was evident when they recently beat the Bucks, are a team that struggles on the road having garnered a 1-6 SU record vs above .500 sides . Meanwhile the  while the Pacers are 14-3 SU  overall at home and deserve respect here as dogs especially with Malcolm Brogdon back in the lineup today for the Pacers. 

McMillan is 21-8 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of INDIANA.

he Pacers are 17-3 ATS/SU  at home with rest off a loss as a dog in which they had at least 25% of their points from free throws.

The Seventysixers are 4-20-1 ATS 4-22 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

NBA Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 18-54 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

Boston after getting beaten up and humbled by DDs vs the defending NBA champion Raptors last time out, will be ready to come out here with a start to finish bounce back situation here this evening vs a very inconsistent Charlotte team 5 straight games. BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (L/19  off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more.

Boston has already beaten Charlotte twice this season by DD deficits and Im betting on a 3rd here. 

NBATeams like the Celtics  are 16-0 ATS /SU as a road favorite with more than one day of rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with the ppg diff clicking in a +12.3 ppg. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The Brooklyn Nets have hit a wall  in  offensive production . However, they have the ability to bounce back as they  had been fairly effective overall without injured starters Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert in the lineup.After being held under 100 points in consecutive games for the first time this season, Im betting the Nets bounce back with a big offensive output today vs a struggling Minnesota side that is getting blasted for an average of 114.9 ppg at home this season. Note: key offensive starter Towns was able to participate in drills at practice on Sunday while wearing a leg sleeve on his knee, and will probably play tonight. His teammate Wiggins is a 50% chance starter tonight as he deals with some time of illness. 

Saunders is 15-4 OVER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 235 ppg going on the board. MINNESOTA is 13-3 OVER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 pig scored. 

The Timberwolves are 14-0 OVER L/14  after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with a combined average of 234.6ppg scored with every game in the subset eclipsing this current total.

NBA Teams like the Nets are 21-4 OVER L/25 as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent making more than 20 free throws with a combined average  of 227.1 pig scored.

Play OVER 

 The Brooklyn Nets have hit a wall  in  offensive production . However, they have the ability to bounce back as they  had been fairly effective overall without injured starters Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert in the lineup against a Minnesota team that has own just 1 of their L/12 games. 

The Nets are 12-0 ATS/SU  on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a 10+ loss. The Nets are 12-0 ATS /SU L/12 as a favorite off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.

NBA Teams like the Nets  are 22-2-1 ATS/SU  on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS/1-10 SU at home facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are struggling in a big way right now and have lost  6 straight games, and are now on tired legs after playing last night  against Phoenix and now going into the high altitudes of Denver to play a top tier team in the Nuggets.Playing in this Mile High venue for top tier teams is hard enough little lone a team like the Kings who proverbially can not tie their own shoelaces in their current form.  The Nuggets  54-14 SU and 44-27 ATS at home over the last few seasons  and are a hard team to face here at the Pepsi Center . It must also be noted that Denver has this circled as grudge match as they seek revenge for a loss to Sacramento back on Nov 30 on the road  and thus I see very little mercy being shown here on their way what Im betting will be a hefty DD win and cover.Sacramento is 0-7  SU and 1-6 ATS L/7 after taking on the Suns. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Hornets enter this game against the Grizzlies  having lost five of their last six games and four in a row and are fade material in their current form.The Grizzlies defeated Charlotte 119-117 on Nov. 13 in Charlotte. My own power ranking suggest they matchup very well against a side that can't shoot 3s consistently and when out muscled struggle because of their need to do most of their scoring from the perimeter. 

The Hornets are 2-20-2 ATS /1-24 SU as a road dog with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game. 

NBA Teams like the Grizzlies are 13-0 ATS /SU L/13 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

My projections estimate this total slightly bloated, with the Rockets  Westbrook sitting tonight for rest purposes . The Rockets usually play division games with a more physical   presence. Note:HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.8 ppg scored. The Rockets beat the Pelicans twice already this season in high scoring affairs but Im betting this game will be played differently as both teams are on tired legs after playing yesterday. 

NBA Teams like the Rockets  are 2-25 UNDER off a win as a favorite in which they had assists on less than 40 percent of their field goals ( none of the 27 games in the subset have gone above this opening total)

The Rockets are 2-19 UNDER L/21 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with the average combined score clicking in at 213.4 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 102-46 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers come off a emotional and physically gruelling game vs the LA Clippers last time that they lost, and now in a letdown situation go against a franchise that they have a long history of futility against the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers have won 15 of the L/18 overall meetings  . With Dallas on board for tomorrow night, Im betting the Lakers may not be as focused as they need to be. I know the Lakers smashed the Blazers when they played earlier this season, but the Blazers have been very good in revenge mode from a 20 or point loss, cashing 6 of their L/7 opportunities and get my support to turn the trick again. 

Play on Portland Trailblazers to cover 

San Antonio despite of being highly inconsistent gets my support here tonight at home, in revenge mode vs a Detroit Pistons team that beat them, 132-98 earlier this season. It was an embarrassing event for the Spurs, and HC Popovich was steaming after that game, and will now his team ready to play in this redemption scenario.Note: SAN ANTONIO is 15-3 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /SUL/11  at home with rest off a road game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses .The Spurs are 15-2-1 ATS /18-1 SU at home with less than two days rest after their points decreased by at least 25 from the game before.

The Pistons are 1-20 ATS /SU  as a dog off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game failing to cover cover by more than 10+ ppg. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Dallas according to my projections is getting to much love here tonight as DD road chalk. I know Golden State played last night, but recently this well conditioned young team is showing life, as has been evident by 4 consecutive wins including one against Houston . Yes, Golden State got clobbered by a ugly 142-94 count by Dallas by in November on the road but it must be noted Kerr is a fine HC with alot of pride, and has lead  GOLDEN STATE to a 8-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

NBA team (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or loss ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are just 13-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

Washington came into NYK and convincingly controlled the Knicks and took the road win. Now in revenge mode the pundits seem to think a inconsistent Knicks team off a upset win vs Brooklyn last time out can grab two in a row behind a revenge scenario.Even if the Wizards  Bradely Beal is less than 100% or cant play, I still feel the Wizards are the right side behind the replacement reliable duo of Troy Brown Jr. or Jordan McRae . Truth is I just don't feel the Knicks deserve their fav status in this rematch , especially here on the road.  NBA Road teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 3-25 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NEW YORK is 1-10 ATS L/11 versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48%  or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

Milwaukees offence averages 120+ ppg while Atlanta D, allows an average of 118.6 ppg. Milwaukee has scored agains the best of Ds consistently, and against this below average defence, Im betting they score in the average of 10 points higher on their season to date average offensive output. Meanwhile, Atlanta, is capable of chasing behind a offence that averages 110 + ppg in recent 5 games activity span, which Im betting results in a higher scoring affair than the lines makers anticipate. 

NBA Teams like the Bucks are 19-1 OVER  on the road off a loss as a favorite when the total is at least 15 points more than their last game with a combined average of 239.2 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA Teams like the Hawks are 15-1 OVER L/16 as a dog with more than two days of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with a combined average of 243.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Celtics are big favourites here, vs the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. I know this is the new NBA and laying lumber with upper tier teams is becoming the norm, but in my usual contrarian fashion, and my old school mind set I believe this line to be slightly bloated thanks to both recency bias and perceived expectations that actually don't jive with what is according to my projections a one possession extension on a line that should be closer to -11.  

Tonight Im betting the Celtics will over look their opponents while the away team plays up to their opponents eyeing a chance at an upset vs a upper tier side. 

The Celtics are 0-15 ATS /7-8 SU L/15 off a 10+ win as a road favorite when they won 4 straight vs current opponent.

BOSTON is 4-15 ATS L/19  in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. 

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 46-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 

Cleveland is well rested and of late have been up trending offensively and are capable of doing  out put damage here in a game I have pegged toast paced. 

The Celtics are 13-0 OVER L/13 at home with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 14-1 OVER L/15 as a 8+ dog with more than one day of rest off a home game in which they had 20+ turnovers with a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored.

CLEVELAND is 13-3 OVER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 32-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON ) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, playing with 3 or more days rest are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Trail Blazers' had their four-game winning streak abruptly end last time out  as the club was 4-of-29 from beyond the arc. Im now expecting a shooting bounce back effort here tonight in Utah behind the 11th fastest pace in the league and the 10th ranked ppg offence. Meanwhile, Im betting on a up-trending Utah offence averaging 110.4 ppg in their L/5 overall, to fire power back on rested legs after their Christmas break. This projected group of scenarios will make for a score according to my projections that slams into the plus 220 mark on the combined totals scoreboard.

PORTLAND is 20-8 OVER when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 OVER L/11 off a loss as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Jazz are 20-0 OVER L/20  with rest off a loss in a road game when the total is at least 15 points more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 247.5 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Minnesota Wolves have ost 11 straight games, and are once again fade material here on the road vs a Kings team that is struggling but more than capable of rebounding in this spot . 

SACRAMENTO is 15-3 ATS  after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

The Timberwolves are 1-17-1 ATS /1-18  SU  as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this game on a 4 game win streak and have won 7 of their L/9 and have won 11 of their 16 home games this season . Against todays competition the visiting Memphis Grizzlies the Thunder have won 9 straight times here and once again have the advantage vs a side that is highly inconsistent and have lost 13 of 18 road games this season, including last weeks visit to Sooner State where they lost 126-122 count as 6.5 point dog. Note:NBA Teams like the Thunder are 20-2 ATS /21-1 SUL/22 as a opening line 8+ favorite with rest off a game as a dog when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at 17 ppg. 

NBA Teams like the Grizzlies  are 2-33 SU/ 5-29-1 ATS  as a road dog with more than one day of rest after allowing 15+ points more than Vegas projected with the average ppg diff clicking in at 14.2 ppg. 

The Thunder are 14-1 ATS/15-0 SU L/15  as a home favorite with more than one day of rest off a home game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the average ppg diff clicking at 14.1 ppg.

The Grizzlies are 0-14 ATS /SU as a opening line  8+ dog with more than one day of rest off a game as a dog in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21.5 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The coaching change of  David Fizdale on Dec. 6 for interim coach Mike Miller has not sparked the Knicks to consistent efforts, and there is just something off about the chemistry of this team, and their work ethic and preparation. Just before the Christmas break, they got clobbered by Miami and Milwaukee , and than got run over by the Washington Wizards  by a 121-115 count at  home on Monday. Now Im betting their lack of proper motivation , fluidity, and upper their talent will see them lose again and more importantly as far as we are concerned fail to cover.

NEW YORK is 2-12 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home losses over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 15.1 ppg.

The Knicks are 0-13 ATS /SU L/13 as a dog with more than one day of rest with every loss coming by 8 points or more with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20 ppg. 

Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis according to an ESPN report are both expected  play Christmas day. I know with these super stars in the lineup the public will naturally chase the total over here, but I say not so quick as  my projections estimate that a number closer to 220 is order here,  which gives us one possession value. Hey I know it does not seem like much of an advantage but believe me, it is considering how proficient Vegas has historically been setting lines on NBA totals.

Also from a matchup perspective these two rivals, are proving to have a dislike for each other , so a physical play off style affair is not out of the question, which also has me leaning to this being a lower scoring affair than the public and pundits expect. 

Christmas Day under since 2005, have been an extremely good bet : 38-22-1 UNDER for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

 NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) . are 63-38 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Milwaukee won 21 of its last 22 games,  but they go against a Philadelphia side that plays their best basketball at home where they are 15-2 SU this season, and wont go down without a fight. Im expecting a hard fought game here which will make getting points golden. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 25-3 L/5 seasons for for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  team (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers 

Boston downed Toronto 112-106 at home on Oct. 25  and matchup well once again vs a Raptors team that is banged up and playing short handed. BOSTON is 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

The Raptors have also taken part into two straight exhausting games , one where they came from behind from a DD deficit entering the 4th quarter, and one that they took to  OT after trailing by 14 points in the third quarter. A natural emotional letdown is expecting by me here today against a top tier side. 

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) like the Raptors are 17-59 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover 

Minnesota now on a 10 game losing streak enters this game on tired legs as they play their 3rd road game in 4 nights, which gives the depleted Warriors  a chance for a rare victory here tonight. 

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS/SU l/10 off a game as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS 1/10 SU with less than two days rest off a loss as a road dog in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes.

 MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 13-34 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

One of Sacramento's biggest moments of the season occurred when it edged the Rockets 119-118 in Houston on Dec. 9 and Im betting the Kings have what it takes to hang tough at home here again tonight.NBA Teams  like The rockets are 1-14 ATS /SU  on the road with rest off a 10+ win as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home.

Houston is off a big shooting effort last time out scoring 139 points in a win vs the Suns and now Im expecting a regressionary effort. The Rockets are 3-20-1 ATS  on the road off a win as a favorite in which they shot over 55% from the field. D'Antoni is 10-22 ATS  after scoring 130 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON.

NBA Teams like the Kings are 20-2 ATS /21-1 SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home .The Kings are 23-5 ATS L/28 with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Nuggets' two victories vs the Suns this season did not come easily. Denver won by a point in overtime in its home opener on Oct. 15, then by 12 a month later in a game the Suns  were lead in the fourth quarter. Now with double revenge on board Im betting on Devon Booker and company to give Denver fits tonight. 

PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Suns are 16-1 ATS L/17 at home with less than two days rest off a loss in which they allowed their opponent to exceed their season-to-date shooting percentage by 10 points.

DENVER is 3-12 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Teams like the Suns are 13-0-2 ATS  off a loss in a home game in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

NBA teams  like the Suns are 1-24 ATS/SU  when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a win as a dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

NBA Road teams (DENVER) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 21-51 ATS L/5 seasons for. go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

The Knicks had been showing signs of late of late, but then fell back down to earth against superior competition, here against a Wizards team that they can handle I expect a top tier effort on their own home court. 

WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. 

WASHINGTON is 8-20 ATS  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Teams like the Knicks  are 17-1 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss when the total is at least 15 points more than their season-to-date average.

NBA. Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 32-12 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Knicks to cover 

The Sixers' offensive flow was disrupted by zone defenses during a recent 3 game losing streak. They averaged 97 points while falling to Brooklyn, Miami and Dallas. Personally I have not liked the flow of the Sixers for a few seasons now, and despite of their talent , are to choppy of a team to garner my respect against the best teams in this league. I know Detroit is not a top tier team, but HC Casey is an astute enough student of the game, to know how to implement a defensive game plan that can slow the Sixers here , making the home team in my humble betting opinion a solid underdog in this spot play.

The Seventysixers are 11-34-1 ATS L/46  as a favorite with rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

NBATeams like the Pistons  are 13-0 ATS L/13 s a home dog off a 10+ loss after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

NBARoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 21-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The Pacers have won 13 of their last 16 games heading into the tilt with Milwaukee (26-4), which has emerged victorious in 20 of 21 contests and is off to its best 30-game start since 1971-72. The Pacers record will have the Bucks wide awake and ready to send a message to the Pacers here at home giving us an edge with one of the NBA most explosive teams at home.

 MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season. MILWAUKEE is 22-5 ATS vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Budenholzer is 36-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE.  The Bucks are 13-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20.2 ppg. 

The Pacers are 0-11 ATS /SU on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.3 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 9-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Clippers will  rest leading scorer Kawhi Leonard against the Thunder after he played Saturday night in a 134-109 win at the San Antonio Spurs. With the Clippers on tired legs and   Im betting there  is an advantage for a home side, that has won 3 straight in front of their own fans. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

The Thunder are 20-4-1 ATS L/25 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field.

NBA teams like the Clippers are 3-20-1 ATS L/24 as a road favorite with no rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.

Oklahoma City has won 4 straight at home in this series.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

Charlotte enters the contest on a back-to-back, losing 114-107 at home to the Utah Jazz on Saturday night , but will not be reserved here tonight knowing they will have a holiday break to rest up coming their way after tonight. Injuries may also slow the Celtics here tonight as  , forward Gordon Hayward (sore left foot), guard Marcus Smart (left eye infection) and big men Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture) and Robert Williams III (left hip) all missing the last two games. Hayward is questionable Sunday, as he was Friday, but the other three have been ruled out.

CHARLOTTE is 22-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

The Celtics are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a home favorite in which their assists increased by at least 10 from the game before.The Celtics are 7-25 ATS L/32 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest after they shot over 50% from the field.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

Even with Luka Doncic sitting out his third game with a sprained ankle Friday night, the Mavericks defeated the host Philadelphia 76ers 117-98 and are not missing a beat offensively without their star guard int the lineup. Tonight against the injury depleted Raptors Im expecting them to keep rolling offensively, and for the Raptors deep bench to answer back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that eclipses this total.

NBA Teams like the Mavs are 50-15 OVER L/65 as a road dog with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with a combined average of 226.9 ppg scored.

 NBA Teams like the Raptors  are 16-2 OVER L/18  with rest facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 63-30 OVER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Minnesota arrives in the Pacific Northwest with a nine-game losing streak while the Trail Blazers are starting to get into a rhythm. After playing in the high altitudes of Denver last night, the Wolves , are fade material on this line. Note. Towns a key Woves offensive weapon is expected to miss tonight and if he does play is less than 100%. Portland is 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts here in Oregon of late and Im betting on the Blazers getting it done again. 

The Timberwolves are 0-13-1 ATS /0-14 SU as a road dog with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.The Timberwolves are 1-16-1 ATS /1-17 SU as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

The Trailblazers are 16-1-1 ATS /17-1 SU at home with less than two days rest off a 10+ win after a game in which their opponents points per field goal attempt was less than one.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Suns will have their star  Devon Booker in the lineup tonight here at home vs the Houston Rockets, and according to my projections are viable dogs . Meanwhile, the Rockets are off a very hard fought victory vs the Clippers last Time out and may not have the energy to operate at full steam here tonight vs a side that Im sure their over looking.The Rockets are 2-16 ATS L/18 as a road favorite off a road game after a game that was tied 5+ times including 1-9 SU L/10 and 0-10 ATS. 

The Suns have revenge on board for a loss  115-109 loss to the Rockets earlier this season. PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Williams is 100-67 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached.

NBA Teams  like the Suns are 36-9-1 ATS -35-11 SU at home with no rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making more than 20 free throws per game. 

NBA Teams like the Suns are 25-4-1 ATS /  as a dog with no rest off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

I know the Kings played last night in a loss vs the Pacers, but  so did the Grizzlies . I keep my own conditioning charts on on NBA teams, and the Kings rank higher in their ability to perform on back to back games, and get my support here vs a team that they matchup well against in most metrics. SACRAMENTO is 10-2 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.

Sacramentos SRS ranks 19th in the league at ( -2.76) while the Grizzlies SRS ranks them 25th ( -5.14). Note: SRS is a (Simple Rating System) a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

SACRAMENTO is 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons. 

The Kings are 31-3 ATS L/34 on the road off a game as a dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.

The Grizzlies are 2-20-1 ATS /2-21 SU as a dog off a loss in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.

NBA Teams like the Kings are 33-8-1 ATS /33-9 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a loss in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP.

NBA Teams like the Grizzlies  are 1-18 ATS /SU as a home dog after playing as a road favorite when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ more points than their respective averages

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

New Orleans enters this game exhausted and on tired legs against a desperate and depleted Golden State team that still has the advantage of playing at home here tonight.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-29 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons here at home.

The Pelicans are 0-17 ATS /SU L/17 with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point rangeThe Pelicans are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win as a road dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 33-63 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover 

New Orleans is exhausted as they play their 3rd game in 4 night and 6th game in 10 days and doubt they will be prepared to run here tonight and will be mote tempered in their approach to this tilt . Meanwhile, Golden State still playing without Curry and Thompson just don't have the weapons to run and gun and will be methodical with their game plan which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the total. GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored. 

The Pelicans are 3-22-1 UNDER as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a win in a road game with the average combined score of 190.3 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Pelicans  are 2-19 OU L/21 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog when they are off two games in which they held their opponent to 10+ less than they usually allow wit the combined average of 189.5 ppg scored. NBA Teams Pelicans are 1-15 UNDER L/16 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with a combined average of 211.6 ppg. 

The Warriors are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15  as a dog with less than two days rest off a road game in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with a combined average of 191.8 ppg scored.The Warriors are 2-22-1 UNDER L/25  with rest off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5with a combined average of 201.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 42-15 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Knicks have gone 3-3 since turning over their coaching reins to Mike Miller, who has been fortunate enough to have a mostly healthy roster at his disposal. The team as a whole is playing with momentum after winning 3 of their L/4  and showing resiliency and more urgency which makes them viable underdogs in this spot vs a Miami team off a hard fought win vs Philadelphia last time out that could easily see them in a emotional letdown spot. 

The Heat are 2-18 ATS L/20 at home off a win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5 and are 1-14 ATS L/15 at home with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5.

NBA  team (MIAMI) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a struggling  team ( 25% or less) are 67-113 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Sacramento coach Luke Walton has  his floor leader DArion Fox  back on the court which makes the Kings a much more dangerous team with a already never say die chemistry surrounding it.The  Pacers their hosts are playing well with four straight victories and 12 in their past 15 games but they are off a hard fought win vs the Lakers last time out and could find it hard to muster the energy to go against a Sacramento team that won't lie down without a fight.SACRAMENTO is 10-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. 

NBA Teams like the Pacers are 0-10 ATS L/10 and 2-8 SU at home with more than one day of rest off a win as a dog.

The Kings are 13-0-1 ATS L/14  with more than one day of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game.The Kings are 21-2-1 ATS (L/24 )on the road with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

Play on the Kings to cover 

The run and gun Rockets don't fit their profile lately, as they have slowed down their pace  in recent games , as they look for a more balanced game plan, that focuses on defending properly in transition. Fatigue may also be playing a part, but what is obvious is that they have really put the brakes on and that Im betting effects this final score going under the projected total. Meanwhile, the Clippers are on tired legs after a 6 game road trip , and now here at home Im expecting a more muted effort as they get used to home cooking again. It must also be noted that the Clippers own the best home D rating in the league at 99.2 ppg and  are more than capable of slowing Harden and company. 

HOUSTON is 21-9 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.D'Antoni is 10-1 UNDER  in road games revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less as the coach of HOUSTON ( Clippers beat the Rockets back in November)

NBA Teams like Houston are 0-14-1 UNDER  on the road off a home game after a win in which they trailed after the third with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored. The Rockets are 0-13-2 UNDER on the road off a win as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored. 

NBA team (HOUSTON /LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 64-22 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 50-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Brooklyn has come a long way over the last few seasons, and San Antonio is now starting to play at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and are not reliable favorites.The Nets are a hard working team with a never say die attitude, something that is missing from the framework and mindset of this current group of Spurs players. Im taking the points here with the visitor. 

NBA Teams like Brooklyn are 12-0 ATS  as a dog with less than two days rest after they scored more than 50 points in the paint. 

SAN ANTONIO is 0-12 ATS L/12 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.

NBA Teams like the Spurs are 0-17-1 ATS /0-18 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half.

The Nets are 16-2 ATS L/18 as a dog with rest off a win as a favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. 

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Hawks previous to a high scoring back in forth affair in their L/game, have had problems scoring in their previous 3 games, scoring 102, 100, and 96 points respectively with all 3 tilts staying under the total. Atlanta has taken part in some explosive offensive games, in the last few seasons, but more often than not they struggle to be a consistent offensive force, and here tonight against a Utah side that owns the 8th best ppg D, in the league another one of those games Im betting develops. With that said, Im recommending we take an under stance here this evening.

The Jazz are 1-17 UNDER L/18 with rest off a win in a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times with a combined average score of 200.1ppg scored, with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

NBA Teams like the Jazz are 7-36-3 UNDER as a road favorite with rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 220.4 pig scored.

The Hawks are 3-29 UNDER L/32  at home with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 185.4 ppg scored.

The Hawks are 1-23 UNDER L/24  as a home dog off a road game after being outscored in the paint by double digits with a combined average score of 187.4 ppg going on the scoreboard . 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ATLANTA) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, with a losing record are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Dallas enters this game  without their best player Doncic  and despite  Mavericks  winning last time out  vs Milwaukee are still be listed as underdogs vs the visiting  Boston Celtics. The Mavericks without their star found a way to beat Milwaukee, but the Celtics wont be over looking them like the Bucks were, and this time around Doncic presence will be missed. Add to that I expect the Mavs to be in a huge emotional  letdown spot after that win vs the Bucks and we have value with the short road favorite. 

The Celtics are 15-0-1 ATS (L/16 on the road after a game as a home dog in which rebounding less than 20% of their own misses. 

 The Mavericks are 2-21-1 ATS L/24 at home with less than two days rest off a win in a road game in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Sixers (20-8) will enter this game against the Heat (19-8) as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and holding a perfect 14-0 SU home record with Joel Embiid expected in the lineup tonight after missing his last start with a respiratory issue. Meanwhile, Miami continues to be tough out, but 

[SF] 12/17/2019 - Justise Winslow is downgraded to OUT Wednesday vs Philadelphia ( Back )

expected this miss the short handed Heat my not be as viable as usual as underdog in this spot play vs a side that thrives at home, and out looking for redemption after a ugly DD loss last time out. 

PHILADELPHIA is 37-21 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff  of +8 . 

Devon Booker is out for the Suns tonight which Im betting effects their offensive flow and the total combined score of this tilt.Cameron Johnson (hip), and Tyler Johnson (illness)  are also out and despite of Deandre Ayton returning from his 25 game suspension his time will be limited . Im expecting the top tier LA Clippers D to really make life difficult for the Suns tonight in a more grinding affair than the lines-makers might expect. 

NBA Teams like the Clippers are 7-31 UNDER L/28 at home with more than one day of rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average score of 215 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams like the Suns Teams are 1-14-1 UNDER L/15 as a road dog off a loss in a home game in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 215.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 42-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, on Tuesday nights are 29-6 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors, 

Play UNDER 

Charlotte has won and covered 4 of the L/5 games in this series and have won the two most recent tilts here at home vs the Kings. The Hornets were playing well of late having won 4 straight before a ugly effort vs the Pacers last time shooting just  30.8% from the floor and made just five triples on 32 attempts in a 107-85 loss. However, in the past the Hornets have rebounded well from a bad shooting effort, and  are 13-3 ATS in home games after 2 straight games where they made 39% of their shots or worse. I know Sacramento is proving themselves a well coached team, but this will be their 6th road game in their L/8 overall, and 8th game in just two weeks, so their on tired legs here and could easily be over looking their opponent.

 The Kings are 1-21 ATS /0-22 SU L/22 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.

The Hornets are 16-1-1 ATS /17-2 SU L/19 at home with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in non-conference games, off a road win by 10 points or more are 46-88 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Both these teams are playing sub par .500 hoops. The Suns have been up trending this season ,but are still not a consistent side and have nosed dived of late losing 10 of their L/14 after a fast start.  Meanwhile, Portland is struggling more than I anticipated but they have a solid experienced core, and Im betting they will right their proverbial ship. This particular matchup according to my power rankings suggests the Blazers have an edge on a short line and  they get my support here tonight. Injury update: Suns guard Devin Booker  is 50% (forearm) and this struggling team   will have to get through one more game without center Deandre Ayton who has one last game to serve on his suspension. 

The Blazers have won 10 straight meetings in this series and Im betting they nail another one here tonight. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU with more than one day of rest off a game as a dog in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.

NBA Teams like the Blazers  are 24-4-1 ATS /23-6 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.Teams like the Suns  are 0-10 ATS /1-9 SU at home facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game. 

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

Mavericks Star Guard Doncic suffered a sprained right ankle Saturday, and will be out here tonight, and probably longer. This Mavs team is going to suffer operating on the perimeter. With that said, I just cant see, Kristaps Porzginis being able to ramp up the offence on his own, and add to that  he has not shot well on the road this season. This Milwaukee team reminds me of Golden States recent  super squads , and because of that this 11 point spread is not scaring me off in the least in a game I see as an easy DD victory for the Bucks. 

The Bucks are 14-0-1 ATS /15-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. All wins came by 11 points or more with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.8 ppg.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Pistons key starter Griffin sat during the second half of the Pistons' 115-107 victory at Houston due to left knee soreness and is not 100% entering this game and could easily not play or see limited action. This will effect the offensive flow of the Pistons and instead they will have to rely on what is looking like a solid defence that is up-trending as was evident when they held Harden and company to a low offensive output last time out.  Meanwhile, Washingtons front court is also banged up. Second-year big man Moritz Wagner sat out on Saturday due to a left ankle sprain. Starter Thomas Bryant is weeks away from returning due to a stress reaction in his right foot. I know that the Wizards D, is atrocious but , with Motowns pace (ranked 23rd in the league) Washingtons D will not be under alot of stress, and the game as a whole should be slower and lower scoring than the line estimations . 

DETROIT is 24-11 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Wizards are 1-17 UNDER L/18 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with a combined average of 211.9 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like Detroit are 0-13 UNDER L/13 with rest off a win in a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with a combined average of 206.1 ppg going on the board. (The Wizards won the first meeting between the teams on Nov. 4, 115-99.)

Play UNDER 

 The Wizards won the first meeting between the teams on Nov. 4, 115-99. Bradley Beal led six Washington players in double figures with 22 points and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here. 

Teams the Wizards  are 37-9 ATS /42-6  as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.

NBA Teams are 0-13-1 ATS /1-14 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick after a game as a road dog in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint. Teams like Detroit  are 4-24 ATS at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after playing as a road dog

LATE STEAM Wizards to cover

The Lakers won their 13th road game in a row and moved 20 games over .500 with a 113-110 triumph on Friday vs Miami. However that was a very physical tiring game vs the Heat , and Im sure the Lakers have the bumps and bruises to show for it . Thanks to the Lakers perceived invincibility and the Hawks ineptitude we have a value line to bet into with the home underdog Hawks. Note: With  Hawks  as healthy as they've been all year Im betting they put up a fight tonight. 

LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

The Hawks are 11-0 ATS L/11 as a dog off a 10+ loss in a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times.

NBA Teams like LAL are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they had more than 10 refereed turnovers.

NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 75% or more ) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 6-26 ATS L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

The New Orleans Pelicans have lost 11 straight games and Im betting that won't end today vs a Orlando side that matches up well against them.NEW ORLEANS is 1-9 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Gentry is 11-30 ATS  against Southeast division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Orlando has won their L/2 visits to New Orleans. 

NEW ORLEANS is 16-28 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons

The Pelicans are 0-16 ATS /SU with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range. The Pelicans are 0-12-2 ATS/1-13 SU with less than two days rest after they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers.

NBA Teams like Orlando  are 12-0-1 ATS L/13 with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

The Thunder have dropped four straight visits in Denver and lost the last six overall matchups. Last season, they went 0-4 against the Nuggets with the losing margins all between seven and 11 points. Rinse an repeat situation on board here.

The Nuggets are 15-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with rest off a win in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with the average margin of victory coming by 16.4 ppg. 

NBA Teams likr the Thunder are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 with more than one day of rest off a loss as a road dog when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ less than their respective averages with he average margin loss coming by 19 ppg.

Play on Denver to cover 

San Antonio ranks 25th in the NBA in ppg allowed (115.5 ppg) while Phoenix is ranked 5th in ppg offence, and rank 23rd in defence and 8th in pace. Key starter Booker is expected to start today  for the Suns despite of being slated in as questionable because of arm contusion. With the NBA sending out subliminal messages , and  wanting to put a show on for this Mexico city crowd look for a run and gun game that sails over the total. 

The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11  at home off a loss with a combined average score of 245.5 ppg scored.The Suns are 10-0 OVER  off a loss after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 244.7 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA Teams are 11-0 OVER L/11 on the road off a loss as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 23 fouls per game with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored. 

SAN ANTONIO is 20-7 OVER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 234.7 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are  39-13 OVER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Miami defence showed it metal when  it went against the  West's best in the Los Angeles Lakers  losing a hard fought 113-110 decision on Friday night. Going against Anthony Davis and LeBron James is no small task, and Im betting they will be ready to grind away on Dallas tonight and wont have the legs to run in gun after playing last night. 

The Heat are 1-14 UNDER L/15 as a dog off a loss in a home game when playing on Saturday with no rest with a combined average of 170.4 ppg. The Heat are 0-10 UNDER L/10 after playing as a home dog facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game with a combined average of 187.5 ppg scored.

NBA Teams are 54-102-2 L158 UNDER at home after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent that has a season-to-date average points per FGA of better than 1.3 with a combined average of 208.3 ppg scored. 

NBA team (DALLAS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 64-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

I couldn't help but notice that the Bucks were trying to pace themselves last night knowing they had back to back games, but because of this they had to really work hard at the end of their game vs Memphis to get the win and subsequent cover .  That will have a already tired team  playing 3rd game in 4 nights even more winded here  as this game progresses.Note: The Bucks are 1-21 ATS L/22  at home with less than two days rest off a road game after a win in which they trailed after the third.

NBA Teams  like Cleveland are 22-6 ATS and 11-1 SU L/12  on the road off a win facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc.(  The Cavs beat  San Antonio 117-109  their last time out.)

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a struggling  team (25% or less) are 27-56 ATS  L/23 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover 

San Antonio ranks 25th in the NBA in ppg allowed (115.5 ppg) while Phoenix is ranked 5th in ppg offence, and rank 23rd in defence and 8th in pace. Key starter Booker is expected to start today  for the Suns despite of being slated in as questionable because of arm contusion. With the NBA sending out subliminal messages , and  wanting to put a show on for this Mexico city crowd look for a run and gun game that sails over the total. 

The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11  at home off a loss with a combined average score of 245.5 ppg scored.The Suns are 10-0 OVER  off a loss after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 244.7 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA Teams are 11-0 OVER L/11 on the road off a loss as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 23 fouls per game with a combined average of 240.7 ppg scored. 

SAN ANTONIO is 20-7 OVER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 234.7 ppg going on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are  39-13 OVER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Suns' leading scorer Devin Booker is expected to miss this game. ( late update). Which gives the Spurs an edge here. 

The Suns are 4-25-1 ATS 2-28 SU L/30  with more than one day of rest after a game that was tied 5+ times.

The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU L/11on the road with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds.

SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons. 

  NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 123-73 ATS L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Bucks enter this game on a 16 game win streak, and must be respected here a hefty road chalk vs a Grizzlies team that lost 10 of their 13 tilts as hosts this season. Even If Giannis Antetokounmpo  cant play it must be noted the Bucks own a +8.8 Net Rating when he is not playing which ranks  rank fourth in the league .Considering the  Grizzlies are without two key players Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke the Bucks have a very hefty edge.  

Injury update: Bucks super star Antetokounmpo is listed questionable in advance of Friday's game. He sat out of Wednesday's win with a sore quad tendon, and with this being a back to back spot could easily sit tonight. Despite of this the Bucks are still the superiror side. 

Budenholzer is 14-4 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of MILWAUKEE. 

The Bucks are 13-0-1 ATS /14-0 SU as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with every victory coming by at least 10 points.  

NBA Teams like the Bucks are 12-0 ATS/SU as a 8+ favorite off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with he average margin victory coming by +19.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 38-1 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12 ppg.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

New Orleans is really struggling to score of late and have mustered an average of 105.6 ppg in their L/5 overall, while not going above 97 points in two of those tilts. They are trying to shore up their D, so that offence is suffering because of a lack of flow. Overall the Pelicans have gone under in 6 of their L/8 overall. Meanwhile, the Sixers are allowing an average of just 98.2 ppg at home this season, with the average combined score of their games as hosts clicking in at 209 ppg.  Tonight Im betting the Sixers red ranked ppg D, to stand tall and for New Orleans to suffer offensively which will directly effect this game staying under the total.

 The Pelicans are 0-11 L/11 UNDER as a 8+ dog with rest off a game as a dog in which they scored a least 18 fast break points with a combined average of 197.9 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Teams like the Pelicans  are 0-11 UNDER L/11 with rest off a road game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses with a. combined average of 201.9 ppg scored. 

The Seventysixers are 1-16 UNDER L/17  with no rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with a combined average of just 186.7 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play UNDER 

Denver after having lost 5 of their L/6 look to bounce back at home game against  Northwest Division rivals Portland. This is a pretty good Denver side, that is desperate for a win and Im betting they come out here and play like their  hairs on fire in what will be  a victory and cover situation. ( Denver beat the Blazers 108-100 on the road earlier this season and matchup well against any formations Portland comes up with)

NBA teams like Denver  are 12-0 ATS/SU covering by more than  (17.04 ppg) as a home favorite off a loss in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with the average ppg diff clicking in at 25 ppg.The Nuggets are 15-1 ATS covering by more than  11.5 ppg and 16-0 SU  off a loss as a road dog in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter with the average ppg diff clicking in at 11.8 ppg.

NBA Teams like Portland are 0-12 ATS/SU L/12 as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 15+ points less than Vegas projected with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14 ppg.The Trailblazers are 2-18-1 ATS 1-21 SU as a road dog with less than two days rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.

Injury update: Denvers Jamal Murray is  listed questionable for Thursday's game after leaving Tuesday's loss with a  right trunk contusion. Murray however, says on Instagram that he's fine, and  that he'll be good to go. 

Play on Denver to cover 

analysis to follow-thank you for your patience 

  The Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons square off in Mexico City on Thursday night in a game I have pegged to be a lower scoring affair as compared to the total being offered. 

Detroit owns the 20th ranked offence in the NBA behind the 23rd ranked pace, and 14th ranked ppg defence . Meanwhile, Dallas ranks 15th in ppg allowed and 20th in pace, and thanks to above average 3 point conversion rate shooting are ranked 3rd in ppg offence thanks to a top tier 3 point conversion rate that is due for regression . Today in a neutral court environment I expect both sides to not have the same flow as they would when playing at home in the US, and for this tilt to stay on the low side of the total. 

NBA Teams Dallas have gone UNDER 13 straight times  as a road favorite after their opponent shot over 50% from the field with the combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

NBA  Teams like the Mavericks are 9-38 OU L/47 at home with more than one day of rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 214.6 ppg scored.

NBA Teams like the Pistons have gone under 13 straight times with more than one day of rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 202. 8 ppg scored.

NBA DETROIT is 23-11 UNDER  when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The Suns rank 5th in offence in the league but just 22nd in ppg allowed and are the 8th ranked pace and will once again come right at their opponents tonight which will bring them otu of their shell in a chase mode, which will result Im betting in a high scoring affair that eclipses this total.

PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 241.1 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 10-2 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 236.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA Teams are 12-0 OVER L/12 as a dog off a win as a road dog in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 233.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling  team (25-40%) are 24-5 OVER L/23 seasons with a combined average score of more than 231 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

The Lakers have won  21 of their next 23 overall, including 11 in a row on the road and once again look like a viable road favorite in Orlando tonight. With James and  Davis showing some great chemistry the rest of this team has also upgraded its game, and look like dangerous championship contenders if they can stay healthy.

The Lakers are 10-0 ATS /SU off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.2 ppg. 

 NBA Teams  like the Magic are 1-14 ATS  as a home dog off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Nuggets enter this game vs the 76ers are holding opponents to an NBA-low 101.9 points per game, and once again will look to grind it out vs a top tier foe in Philadelphia. 

NBA Teams  like the Nuggets are 0-13 UNDER as a dog with rest off a loss as a road favorite in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes.

The Seventysixers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 with rest off a win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

NBA Teams  like the 76ers are 0-11 UNDER L/11 with rest off a win when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with the combined average of 203.9 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 112-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors, 

NBA team (DENVER) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 28-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 60-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 204 ppg. 

The Heat beat the Hawks twice in a three-day, home-and-home series in October, taking  112-97 victory at home on a night when Atlanta star Trae Young suffered a sprained right ankle, then 106-97 two days later in Atlanta when Young had to take the night off. Now The Heat  face a  healthy Young this time around,  and will have their hands full dealing with a emerging super star who has recorded 39 and 30 points in his last two trips to the hardwood.Young is averaging 34.4 points over his last eight games and Im betting will be the difference maker and helping his team stay within the number here tonight for a Hawks cover as dogs. 

The Hawks are 11-0 ATS L/11 on the road off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game.

The Heat are 0-14 ATSL/14 at home off a win as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points. The Heat are 3-18-1 ATS L/21 at home with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite.

NBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-18 ATS L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Josh Richardson with a +10.1  Net rating mark is expected  play tonight for the76ers. His presence  is important from a metrics standpoint as when Philly have  their full starting 5 playing they are lights out dominate  with a +21.3 Net Rating over 9 games - which equates to a full 121 minutes. Meanwhile, with Denver continuing to struggle to score    consistently , while losing 4 of their L/5, they  are at a disadvantage as they play their 4th straight road game on tired legs  vs a team with revenge on board or a defeat at Denver earlier this season. Note: Philadelphia is 12-0 SU at home this season.

NBA Teams like Denver are 1-15-1 ATS /1-17SU as a dog off a loss as a road favorite when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road with the average ppt diff clicking at -12.1 ppg.

NBA Home teams  (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 24-3 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +9.6 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover