15* Pacers/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +6.5

Despite losing Game 4 at home to the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers are still in better position in this series. That's because they are fully healthy, while the Heat remain without Chris Bosh.

Lebron James and Dwyane Wade came up huge in Game 4, combining for 70 of the team's 101 points in a 101-93 victory. You can bet the Pacers are going to have a game plan to make sure that James and Wade don't beat them again, forcing other unproven players to take and make big shots.

Indiana has outscored Miami by 5 points in this series. The Pacers should not be the underdog in Game 5 given the Heat's health situation. The betting public is going to flock to the Heat after their Game 4 performance, but I'm going the other way with this one and backing the better team.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. This is a combined 20-1 (95%) system backing Indiana tonight. Take the Pacers Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT Monday No-Brainer on Boston -5.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a small home favorite in Game 5 of this series with the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston knows they did not play well in their first two home games in this series, and they want to come out and make a statement with a blowout home victory tonight with the series tied at 2-2.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 4. You can bet this team will come out hungry tonight, similarly to when they did in Game 3. After losing Game 2 at home, the Celtics went on the road and stole Game 3 with an emphatic 107-91 victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. This team plays their best in big games. Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 190.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in Game 4. These teams combined for 182 points last night in a 96-86 San Antonio victory. I expect another defensive battle in Game 4 with the Clippers playing for their playoff lives.

This play falls into a system that is 56-30 (65.1%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - poor free throw shooting team - making <=71% of their free throws, on Sunday games.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. These four trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Playing on back-to-back days after a grueling 99-96 Game 3 victory by the Lakers, I fully expect both Los Angeles and Oklahoma City to be tired for Game 4. That will lead to tough shots and fewer buckets in transition as both teams work their offenses through the half court.

After combining for 152 points in Game 2, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 3. However, they combined to shoot 67-70 (96%) from the free throw line, which is the only reason that game went over the posted total of 191.5. Both teams won't shoot that well from the free throw line again on tired legs tonight.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers have controlled the tempo the last two games, and that will be the case again in Game 4 as this one gets slowed down to a snails pace. Don't expect there to be 70 free throws between these teams again. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Saturday.

15* Spurs/Clippers ABC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 191

Game 1 saw 200 combined points and Game 2 saw 193 combined points. I look for this trend to continue as the Spurs and Clippers don't combine to score more than 190 points in Game 3.

San Antonio controlled the tempo in the first two games at home, but Los Angeles figures to control the tempo at home this time around. The Spurs like to push the pace, while the Clippers operate best in the half court. This will be a half court game in Los Angeles tonight.

The Clippers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 11-3 to the UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The UNDER is 17-3-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.

The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 191.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1 with 209 combined points in a 119-90 Thunder victory, these teams came back to score 152 combined points in a 77-75 win for Oklahoma City in Game 2. I look for Game 3 to finish somewhere in between the first two contests, but it will play out closer to the Game 2 result.

Los Angeles returns home where they'll control the tempo tonight at Staples Center. They did a good job of controlling the pace in Game 2. The fact of the matter is it's simply tough to run in the playoffs, and the Thunder won't be able to in Game 3 against a hungry, motivated L.A. defense. This is a must-win game for the Lakers, and they'll be playing like it defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 88-43 (67.2%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 13-6 in Thunder last 19 road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* Clippers/Spurs TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +11

It has certainly been a nice trend of backing teams that lose Game 1 in Game 2. I'm going to follow that path tonight as well by taking the Los Angeles Clippers as a double-digit underdog against the San Antonio Spurs.

Los Angeles hung tough in Game 1, but they simply didn't have the energy needed to keep up following their grueling 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies last round. With an extra day of rest, and knowing they cannot afford to go down 0-2, the Clippers will be giving max effort tonight for 48 minutes. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread.

San Antonio shot a ridiculous 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) from 3-point range in Game 1, and the odds are simply against them shooting that well again. They still only won by 15 points despite shooting so well from the perimeter. Look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments and to show better effort in rotating to San Antonio's 3-point shooters.

This play falls into a system that is 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 6.8 points/game in this spot. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +8

I really like taking teams in Game 2 of a playoff series after a bad loss in Game 1. That's precisely what I'll do tonight by backing the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday over the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet that the Lakers are going to give a much better showing in this one.

Los Angeles was simply tired from their Game 7 victory over Denver. The Lakers had to fly out to Oklahoma City, and they really didn't have a lot of time to prepare for the Thunder. After facing them once, and getting a practice day, the Lakers will be much more prepared for Game 2.

This is a team that sometimes just doesn't show up for whatever reason. However, when they really need a win, Kobe, Andrew Bynum and Co. really do give it their all, and usually come out on top. I look for that to be the case tonight and for this one to go right down to the wire as the Lakers make the proper adjustments on both sides of the ball.

"Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is," said Kobe Bryant, a five-time NBA champ. "They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will."

Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They are only outscoring opponents in this spot by an average of 3.7 points/game. The Thunder are also just 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by a mere 0.6 points/game. Take the Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/76ers TNT Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +2

After a poor performance in Game 2 in which the Boston Celtics didn't even look like they were trying, I look for them to come out hungry and motivated in Game 3. Even though they didn't put their best foot forward, the Celtics still had a chance to win that game. You can bet the 76ers will be getting Boston's best effort tonight, which will be good enough for a Celtics win.

"I don't like the fact that we took, to me, almost three quarters to play the right way offensively," coach Doc Rivers said. "We knew the blueprint before the game. It took us three quarters to get into it. I always say that's on me. Somehow, I have to figure that out with our guys."

"Being in their building really isn't going to affect us," Ray Allen said. "It's all about how we play them when we get out there, how we take care and work together better than what we did (in Game 2)."

Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also 8-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take these 100% & 92% systems straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my favorite bet for the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs Tuesday. I look for Indiana to not only cover this inflated 7-point spread in Game 2, but to likely win it outright as well.

Miami is really going to miss Chris Bosh. The Pacers already have a huge length advantage in this series over the Heat, and now their height is going to be an even bigger edge. Bosh is underrated as he averages 18.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, and that's production that simply cannot be replaced.

The Pacers proved they could play with the Heat in Game 1. They held a 48-42 lead at halftime, and were tied 70-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter before getting outscored 16-25 over the final period. I look for Indiana to finish much stronger in this all-important Game 2 tonight.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series overall. Indiana is a very profitable 217-163 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1996. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Thunder Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +7.5

I look for Game 1 of this series to go right down to the wire. Throughout the years, there's no question that Game 1 has been THE GAME for the road team to steal. At full strength with Metta World Peace back, the Lakers are as dangerous as any team left in the playoffs.

The Lakers are riding high following their impressive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets a few nights ago. They have the momentum heading into this contest. That's because while Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, they haven't played a game in 8 days. Look for the Thunder to come out rusty in this one.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games overall. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Monday.

20* Pacers/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most dangerous threat to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. They are way undervalued coming into this Game 1 showdown against the Heat Sunday, and I'll take full advantage.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Pacers got progressively better. Indiana lost by 35 in their first meeting, and by 15 in their second. Then, in their third meeting, the Pacers lost in overtime 93-91, and won their 4th meeting 105-90.

The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Heat are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -260

"Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad," said Pau Gasol, who managed three points on 1-for-10 shooting and three rebounds in Game 6. "We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do."

The Lakers are clearly focused and ready to play this game tonight. They can beat anyone in the league when that's the case, and I fully expect them to make easy work of the Nuggets in Game 7. And the cavalry is coming, in the form of an intense defender with dangerous elbows: Metta World Peace will start Game 7 after finishing his seven-game suspension for viciously hitting Oklahoma City's James Harden in the regular season.

"I expect him to come out and play with the tenacity that he's known for," Kobe Bryant said. "He's the one guy I can rely on, night in, night out, to compete and play hard, and play with that sense of urgency, play with no fear. I'm looking forward to having that on my side again." He called out his teammates, and I expect them to respond in this one.

The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home. This is the biggest reason I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of the spread. I have no doubt they'll get it done as they put together their best effort in these 2012 playoffs. Bet the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are favored for good reason tonight. I'll side with the oddsmakers in this one and back the Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday. Despite being down 3-2 in this series, I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team.

Los Angeles has simply had good fortune late in games, which is the reason they lead this series. That good fortune has appeared to run out as their two superstars both suffered injuries in their Game 5 loss to the Grizzlies, and each is banged up heading into this one.

Griffin suffered a hyperflexed left knee in the loss. Though he was able to return, Griffin wasn't very effective in Game 5. Paul aggravated a right groin injury during the fourth quarter of Wednesday's defeat. He played through the injury for most of the final quarter before sitting out the final minute of the game. Paul is actually a game-time decision tonight.

The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Memphis in Game 6 Friday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

You could make the argument that every game in this series should have gone UNDER the total. The UNDER is 3-2 in the first five games, with the two OVERS going over by a combined 5.5 points. It took a 60-point combined 4th quarter in Game 5 for it to go OVER.

What I'm saying is that the clear value in Game 6 is with the UNDER. The defensive intensity in this game will be greater than any other game in this series yet. The Lakers have taken two games off defensively, and those are the two games that went OVER as Denver topped 100 points in each.

The Lakers will not take tonight off defensively. They realize they let a big opportunity slip away in Game 5, and now Kobe Bryant will rally the troops and make sure that his team executes on defense. Andrew Bynum has been called out by the media, so look for him to be a defensive stopper in the paint.

Los Angeles also got out of their game offensively in Game 5. They tried to run with Denver, which doesn't work. Look for the Lakers to slow down the pace and run their offense through their big men inside. This game will be played at a much slower tempo than Game 5 as the Lakers get back in transition defensively, and execute better offensively.

These teams have combined to average 191.8 points/game through the first five games, which is more than 5 points less than the posted total tonight. The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Denver. These teams combined for 183 and 180 points in Games 3 and 4 in Denver, respectively.

The Lakers are 10-2 to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 21-6 in Lakers last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

After failing to close out the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 with a tough 1-point loss in Atlanta, the Boston Celtics won't waste another opportunity in Game 6 tonight. I fully expect the Celtics to roll in blowout fashion and put the Hawks out of their misery.

I look for this game to take a similar path to Game 4, where the Celtics led huge the entire way. Boston would win that contest 101-79 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Atlanta is a very tired team right now as they had four of their five starters play 41 or more minutes in Game 5. The other, Marvin Williams, played nearly 36 minutes. The Hawks didn't have one bench player play more than 8 minutes in Game 5. Look for Atlanta to ware down in the 4th quarter tonight.

The Hawks are 9-24 ATS in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis Grizzlies -6

In Game 5 Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies represent my strongest release of the entire 1st round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. I have Memphis rolling to a blowout victory by double-digits tonight to extend this series. This game won't be nearly as competitive as the first four.

Memphis should arguably be up 3-1 in this series. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, then proceeded to go on the road to lose two games in Los Angeles by a combined 5 points. I have no doubt that Memphis is the better team, and they'll show it on the floor tonight as they take out their frustration on these Clippers.

Los Angeles is in a big letdown spot here. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Clippers are very comfortable with their position in this series. That will allow them to relax as a team knowing that they have a home contest in Game 6 in their hip pocket. This will easily be the worst effort of the series from L.A.

The Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 30-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

Once again, oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. In an elimination game for Denver, this contest will be played with a very high level of intensity defensively. These teams will not reach 200 or more combined points.

The first four games in this series have seen 191, 204, 183 and 180 combined points, respectively. That's an average of 189.5 points/game, which is 10 full points lower than the posted total tonight. As you can see, we are basically getting 10 points of value on this UNDER in Game 5.

The Lakers have controlled the tempo in this series from Game 1. Denver likes to get out and run, but the Lakers simply haven't been allowing it. At Staples Center, Los Angeles will control the tempo once again tonight and make this a half-court game.

Los Angeles is 10-1 (91%) to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-5 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in this series, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8.5

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.

Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8.5 points. That's 3 full points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.

This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202

In this all-important Game 4 Sunday between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, I have no doubt this will be a defensive battle. This is the "make or break" game for Denver. If they want to win this series, they must win Game 4. The level of intensity on the defensive end will be at an all-time high in this series.

Once again, oddsmakers have missed their mark in setting this total much higher than it should be. Two of the first three games have gone UNDER the posted total with combined scores of 191, 204 and 183 points. That's an average of 192.7 points/game, which is nearly 10 points lower than the posted total tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.

This play falls into another system that is 30-5 (85.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Spurs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202.5

Oddsmakers continue to set the total too high in this San Antonio Spurs versus Utah Jazz series. Game 1 was set at 205.5 and finished with 197 combined points, and Game 2 was set at 202.5 and finished with 197 combined points as well. They have set Game 3 at 202.5, and it's once again too many points.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That favors the defenses as teams know how to take away the offensive strengths of the opposition. After the Spurs average 110 points/game in the first two games of this series, I have no doubt that Utah will make the proper adjustments to slow down San Antonio.

Utah has averaged 88.3 points/game in their last three meetings with San Antonio, so the Spurs have them figured out. The Jazz have been a solid defensive team at home all season, allowing just 95.9 points/game in Salt Lake City. The Spurs give up 96.2 points/game on the season.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -1.5

This series is over. It's just like the Los Angeles Lakers last year when they got swept by the Mavericks. The Lakers should have won the first two games of that series, but they lost both and did not really show up in Games 3 and 4.

The Mavericks should have won at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City, but they lost both and were blown out in Game 3. Knowing that no team has ever come back to win a series from an 0-3 deficit, the Mavericks feel like they are already beaten and won't show up in Game 4.

The Thunder are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 187

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are highly likely to play in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this all-important Game 3 tonight. I know the first two games went OVER, but there's no question shots will be tougher to come by as the defense gets amped up with the series tied 1-1.

The Game 1 total was set at 183.5, and the Game 2 total was set at 184.5. They have jacked this total up to 187, providing us with a lot of value on the UNDER. The first two games of this series have been out of the ordinary as their three regular season meetings saw 179, 186 and 187 combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season.

The Clippers are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179

The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Game 3. The first two games in Chicago were unusually high-scoring, but I have no doubt that defense will prevail in this all-important Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that the Bulls simply play in more low-scoring games when Derrick Rose is not on the floor. They average 7 less points/game offensively, and give up 4.5 points less defensively. Philly isn't going to shoot anywhere near 59.0 percent again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2.

This play falls into a system that is 47-19 to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (Chicago) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Chicago is 23-7 to the UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 27-12 in 76ers last 39 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a huge mental edge heading into this one. They won the first two games of this series by a combined 4 points, so they'll be the team that is confident down the stretch once this one goes right down to the wire.

OKC already came into this series with a chip on their shoulder having lost to Dallas in five games in the Western Conference Finals last year. They aren't about to let up with a 2-0 lead, instead I fully expect them to go in for the kill tonight.

The Thunder have won the first two games despite poor shooting from Kevin Durant, who is just 15-of-44 from the field. You have to expect he's going to turn it on in Game 3, and I certainly like his mindset with the following comments.

"That's what it's all about. That's why I'm a winner. That's what I want to be labeled as, a guy that wins games," Durant said. "I know I'm not shooting the ball well but I'm just trying to do other things. I can't dwell on the last two games. I've just got to move on. Move on. We'll see what happens in the next game."

The road team is 34-15-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. The Mavericks are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games. Take Oklahoma City Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11.5

After losing by 15 points to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, I have the Utah Jazz putting up a much better fight in Game 2. This is a team that heads into the playoffs red-hot, and they're not about to let one bad performance slow them down.

Remember, Utah won five straight games heading into the postseason. That includes three victories over playoff contenders, including their all-important 100-88 win over Phoenix. This is a team that believes they can win when few outside their locker room think they can.

The Spurs are simply overvalued in this spot. San Antonio has only beaten Utah three times in their last 14 meetings by more than 10 points. Utah is simply a better team than they get credit for, while the Spurs are getting too much respect with their No. 1 seed.

This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should be a bigger favorite in Game 2 tonight. That's evident by the way that this team dominated the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 en route to a 103-88 victory. L.A. finally put a full four quarters together, and I expect more of the same tonight as they are now in playoff mode.

Los Angeles simply has a huge mismatch inside in this series as the Nuggets don't have anyone to defend Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol consistently. Defensively, Bynum and Gasol make life miserable for these undersized Nuggets, as evident by Bynum's 10 blocks in Game 1. Dener shot 14-of-44 (32 percent) in the paint when Bynum was on the floor.

This is a very hungry team after getting swept in the playoffs last year by the Dallas Mavericks, so don't expect them to take the Nuggets lightly in Game 2 after a strong Game 1 performance.

The Lakers were nearly unbeatable at home this season while posting a 27-7 record at Staples Center. They have posted a 30-5 home record against the Nuggets in all meetings at Staples since 1996.

The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Los Angeles is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Denver. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a thrilling 99-98 contest in Game 1 for 197 combined points. I look for more defense to be played tonight, and less points for both teams. They combined for 55 points in the 4th quarter alone to have Game 1 going OVER the posted total of 192.5.

They have jacked this total up a full 2.5 points from the Game 1 line, providing us with great value on the UNDER. Remember, the UNDER was 3-0 in the final three meetings of 2012 between the Thunder and Mavs. They combined for 187, 181 and 186 points in their previous three meetings, respectively.

The UNDER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Oklahoma City. The UNDER is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 Monday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are getting no respect in their Game 1 showdown with Denver. As only a 4.5-point home favorite, I'll pull the trigger on the Lakers. This is one of the best teams in the league when they want to be, and they own the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers are 29-5 against the Nuggets at home since 1996. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9.5

The Orlando Magic are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight because they don't have Dwight Howard. As a result, the Magic are showing tremendous value in Game 1.

The Magic have been playing without him long enough that they know how to. This team is getting written off heading into the playoffs because they don't have Howard, and I believe they use it as motivation.

The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Indiana is way overvalued here. Take Orlando Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8.5

Evan Turner of the Philadelphia 76ers has been calling out the Chicago Bulls as they're the team they wanted to face. I believe the Bulls make a statement Saturday with a double-digit blowout victory in Game 1.

The Bulls are 26-7 at home this season, while the 76ers are 16-17 on the road. That includes an 89-80 home victory for the Bulls in their most recent meeting on March 17th.

The 76ers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Bet Chicago Saturday.

25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +4

The New York Knicks don't seem overly concerned about where they start their postseason regardless of the outcome of their regular-season finale. The Charlotte Bobcats, however, have plenty of incentive to win Thursday night to avoid capping an utterly miserable and potentially record-setting season of futility.

The Knicks will play either the Bulls or Heat in the first round of the playoffs pending the outcome of this game, and they really don't care who. "Right now it really doesn't matter," Knicks star Carmelo Anthony said. "Whoever we play, we'll have to start on the road anyway, so we just want to start just preparing for whether it's Chicago, whether it's Miami, just get ready to go."

New York clearly does not care about the outcome of this game considering they are resting Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries. Also, Jeremy Lin remains out with a knee injury. Without these six players, you could argue that Charlotte will actually have more talent on the floor tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Charlotte) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Bobcats are the team with something to play for tonight, and that's why I'm backing them. Bet Charlotte Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8

The Toronto Raptors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Both the New Jersey Nets and the Raptors are struggling down the stretch, and this line has clearly been inflated. New Jersey has lost five in a row while Toronto has dropped four straight.

The Nets will be playing mostly players that are trying to prove that they belong in the league. They are also trying to play for a roster spot next season. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing inspired basketball tonight because of the players they'll have on the floor.

New Jersey is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Nets Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +4

While the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last night, they still have something to play for. Los Angeles can no longer win the Pacific Division, or the No. 3 seed in the West. However, the Clippers are still battling Memphis for the No. 4 seed.

That means home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is at stake, which is huge. Los Angeles would get the No. 4 seed with either a win over New York tonight, or a Grizzlies loss to the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. The Clippers certainly want to just take care of business tonight and not leave it in Memphis' hands.

While New York mathematically is still alive for the No. 6 seed in the East, they realize their chances are slim to none. The Knicks would need to go 2-0 the rest of the way while the Magic would have to go 0-2. Fat chance considering the Magic play the Bobcats tonight and are a 14.5-point favorite. New York isn't nearly as concerned about winning this game as Los Angeles is.

The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. Blake Griffin has scored 65 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in two career games against the Knicks. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* Suns/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +5

The Phoenix Suns should not be a 5-point underdog to the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a game that I believe Phoenix wins outright. The Suns have the more veteran team with playoff experience that will shine through in this elimination game.

If Phoenix wins Tuesday, it would lock up the eighth seed with either a victory over West-leading San Antonio on Wednesday or a Utah loss versus Portland the following night. A Phoenix loss tonight and the Suns would be eliminated from the playoffs, giving the Jazz the No. 8 spot.

This is one team that the Suns clearly match up well against. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven meetings with Utah. That includes four straight wins at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Three of those four road victories came by double-digits.

Utah is 1-10 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Throw in the fact that the Suns are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings and we have a combined 42-2 System backing Phoenix. Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +9.5

The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. I believe this line has been inflated due to the fact that Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win. New Jersey does not want to see them do it on their home floor, so I look for the Nets to put up a good fight here.

The Nets have shown they aren't going to quit by winning six of their last 13 games overall. They have played six straight playoff contenders, including Philadelphia twice. They split both meetings with the 76ers, and this team is certainly battle-tested right now.

Philly has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well at all. The 76ers have lost seven of their last 11 games overall. While Philadelphia looks to the future, New Jersey (22-42) will honor its past in its final home game in the Garden State after 35 years. They'll be moving to Brooklyn next year, so the Nets certainly want to finish a winner in their final home game in New Jersey.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Monday.

20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Phoenix -4

The Phoenix Suns would be the No. 8 seed if the season were to end today. They are tied with ninth-place Utah at 33-30, but own the tiebreaker. Obviously, tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is huge for Phoenix.

The Suns have been great since the All-Star Break, posting a 19-10 record. That includes a 12-3 mark at home. They showed great resiliency two nights ago as they trailed the Clippers most of the way, but found a way to win 93-90 in the end. That win gives this team a lot of confidence going forward.

Phoenix has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Denver. The Nuggets only have one win in Phoenix since 2004, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Bet Phoenix Saturday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 203

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will be playing for a 3rd time in 10 days Friday. The familiarity between these teams is through the roof right now, which should lead to a defensive battle tonight. Both teams will be bringing the intensity on defense considering this is an important game for both squads.

San Antonio is trying to fend off Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the West. Los Angeles is trying to stay in front of the L.A. Clippers for the Pacific Division title, and the No. 3 seed in the West. Kobe Bryant is expected to return tonight for L.A., so I look for the Lakers to slow it down and try to run their offense through him.

These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. Twelve straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 203 or less combined points. In fact, 23 of the last 24 meetings between these teams have seen 203 or less combined points. That makes for 23-1 and 12-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set, which is currently up to 204 at most books. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198

While I am taking Phoenix to cover the spread tonight, there's no question that both teams will be tired in this one. I just think that the Suns have the extra motivation they need to play through the tiredness, plus they are the deeper team so they'll handle this situation better.

Both Phoenix and Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days. This will certainly hurt the Clippers more as their bench is much thinner than that of the Suns. Given the circumstance, I have no doubt that these teams will take part in a defensive battle as points are hard to come by.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. That includes 3-0 in the first three meetings this season where these teams have combined for 159, 178 and 189 points, respectively. Given what's at stake, I fully expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Suns last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. As previously state, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 28-2 (93%) System backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198

I'm siding with the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that is much more important for them than it is for the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Clippers are only worried about playoff positioning after already clinching their spot, the Suns are still trying to earn a spot in the postseason.

Phoenix is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, just a half-game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot. To say this is a must-win would be an understatement. Phoenix has handled the pressure well, going 18-10 since the All-Star break, which includes an 11-3 home record.

The Clippers have basically been a punching bag for the Suns in recent years. Phoenix has won 13 of the last 15 meetings in this series. The Suns have won nine straight home meetings with the Clippers as well. They have not lost a home game against L.A. since 2007. Bet the Suns Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8.5

The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value tonight as an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Knicks. I believe the New York Knicks are in for a big letdown tonight after their 118-110 win over the Boston Celtics last night.

New Jersey has shown that they are going to play out their season. The Nets have gone a respectable 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They nearly beat the Miami Heat on Monday, losing 98-101 despite playing without Deron Williams.

New York was fired up to face Boston last night after having struggled mightily against the Celtics in the past. The Knicks hit a ridiculous 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range, and still only won by eight points. There's no way they shoot that well on consecutive nights.

The Knicks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. New Jersey is going to have no problem getting up to face their crosstown rivals. Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12

Following a very bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, the Chicago Bulls will bounce back with a blowout victory over the NBA's worst team in the Charlotte Bobcats. Whether or not Derrick Rose plays tonight the Bulls are going to run away with this one.

Chicago still has a lot to play for as they want to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East. They also want the No. 1 overall seed in the league, so they're not about to take the Bobcats lightly. The Bulls took care of business in their last meeting with Charlotte on February 10th as they rolled to a 95-64 road victory.

The Bobcats are just 7-53 on the season and it's clear by watching them that they simply don't have the talent to compete in this league. Charlotte is 0-17 SU & 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Not only do they not have the talent, but the Bobcats have packed it in.

The Bulls are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

25* Spurs/Lakers TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 199.5

I have the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs playing part in a defensive battle tonight. These teams match up very well against one another defensively, and that has certainly been proven throughout the years.

Eleven straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for 22-1 and 11-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

The Lakers are likely to be without Kobe Bryant again tonight. Without Bryant on the floor, the Lakers certainly struggle offensively. They also try and slow down their offense and run it through their two big men in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This slows the tempo and makes for more of a half-court game.

Los Angeles just beat San Antonio 98-84 on the road on April 11th for 182 combined points. The Spurs are 82-47 to the UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1996. The Lakers are 9-1 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Spurs last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-6 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is also 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the "under the radar" teams that I have been following quite a bit to end the season. This team has proven that they aren't going to pack it in. The Cavaliers have several players right now who are trying to prove they belong in the NBA, while also auditioning for a spot on Cleveland's roster come next season.

The Cavaliers have gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Detroit has gone 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall, and the Pistons should not be this heavily favored tonight. Off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Chicago, Detroit is in for a letdown in this spot.

It was easy for the Pistons to get up emotionally to face the Bulls, but it won't be so easy to get mentally prepared to face the Cavaliers. It's simply human nature for a team to give it their all against another team that is going to be in the playoffs. It's also human nature for a team like the Pistons to not get up emotionally to face a squad like the Cavaliers, who will not be making the playoffs.

Detroit is 33-57 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1996. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12.5

The Chicago Bulls should roll at home tonight over the lowly Washington Wizards. While the Wizards are 14-46 on the season, the Bulls are 46-14 and looking to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East as quickly as possible. Plus, they are also after the No. 1 overall seed in the NBA, so they'll certainly be motivated.

While Chicago has a lot still to play for, the Wizards appear to have packed it in. They lost at New York 65-103 on Friday, followed by an 89-98 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. The nature of both of those losses shows that the Wizards have basically quit trying.

Derrick Rose will be making his 3rd consecutive start for Chicago since returning from injury. He had 24 points and 9 assists against the Pistons last night, and I believe Rose will be even more comfortable while having an even bigger game tonight.

Chicago has won seven straight over Washington, and three of their last four victories have come by 14 points or more. The Wizards are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Washington is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast foes. Bet Chicago Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league this season. However, there comes a time when you just have to back them because you cannot pass up on the value they're showing. That's the case tonight as a 6.5-point home underdog to the New Orleans Hornets.

New Orleans has picked up some big wins of late, but that's the reason they are overvalued in this spot. The Hornets are still just 18-42 on the season, and they have no business being this heavily favored on the road. Off three straight home wins over the Kings, Jazz and Grizzlies, the Hornets are in for a huge letdown tonight.

The Hornets are 0-8 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Hornets are 2-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

20* Mavs/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 190.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their 4th meeting this season, with two of the first three meetings seeing 143 and 187 combined points.

Kobe Bryant is doubtful for Los Angeles with a shin injury, which means points will be harder to come by for the Lakers. It also means that they will slow down the tempo and look to get the ball inside to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in what will be a half-court game. The Lakers are 3-0 to the UNDER in their last three games without Bryant.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Mavericks give up just 93.7 points/game this season, while the yield 94.7 points/game, including 91.1 points/game at home. Dallas is only scoring 93.4 points/game on the road. These teams would have to average 95.5 points tonight for this game to go OVER, and I don't see either topping 95.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 17-5 in Lakers last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Milwaukee Bucks simply have to win tonight if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Milwaukee (29-30) is two games behind both New York and Philadelphia for the final two playoff spots in the East. There's no question Milwaukee will be motivated at home tonight against the Pacers.

Indiana can can almost relax now considering they are in great position to take the No. 3 seed in the East. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be 12th game in 18 days. They'll have a hard time keeping up with Milwaukee in this one.

The Bucks like to play at a fast pace since they traded for Monta Ellis. Milwaukee has scored 104-plus points in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The Bucks are 14-6 in their last 20 games and they're clearly one of the best teams in the league over the past month.

The Pacers are 11-28 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bucks are 31-17 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Bet Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Mavs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to just make the playoffs. Dallas (33-26) would be the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. The Mavericks are 2 games ahead of ninth-place Utah and 2.5 games ahead of tenth-place Phoenix.

There's no question the Mavericks will be motivated in each game they play from here on out, which should bring out the best of them. Dallas has won and covered two straight with a 110-100 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday, then a 112-103 road win at Golden state on Thursday.

I look for the Mavericks to continue playing well against Portland tonight. The Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-110 home victory over Golden State Wednesday, but this team is all but eliminated from the playoffs. They'll have a tough time getting up to play every game from here on out.

Portland has only won back-to-back games once since late January. This team has been playing terrible for quite some time, and ownership has basically decided to rebuild by trading away Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. Making matters worse is the fact that leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury.

This has been a thrilling series this season, with both meetings going into overtime. However, the Blazers have no chance tonight without their best player. Aldridge has scored 58 points while grabbing 24 rebounds in their first two games against Dallas this season, and that's production that they simply cannot replace.

The Mavericks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Dallas is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 1-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, failing to cover 93% of the time. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent the best underdog for the entire 2011-12 season Friday. Cleveland continues to fight despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they are catching way too many points here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

The betting public has not wanted to back Cleveland since PG Kyrie Irving went out with an injury. But the Cavaliers have been a money-making machine since, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They won twice outright, lost twice in overtime and lost by 9 at Milwaukee.

Cleveland has a bunch of players right now that are fighting to prove that they belong in the NBA, and they are auditioning for jobs next season. Lester Hudson is the perfect example, averaging 23.3 points in his last four games, including an incredible 12.5 points in the fourth quarter.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana is 2-1 against Cleveland this season, but both of their wins came in overtime. Cleveland beat Indiana 98-87 on February 15th. This is a home-and-home situation as the Pacers beat the Cavs 104-98 (OT) on Wednesday.

I almost always take the team that lost the first of a home-and-home situation in their second game. That's because the winning team has a hard time getting up emotionally to beat a team that they just beat a day or two ago. Meanwhile, the team that lost the first game is out for revenge and has no trouble getting motivated.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Pacers. Bet Cleveland Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are very hungry for a win tonight following rare back-to-back losses heading in. The Spurs lost at Utah 84-91 on Monday mainly because they sat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli for rest. San Antonio lost 84-98 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Perhaps they didn't get up for that game since Kobe Bryant wasn't playing.

One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies have the Spurs' full attention tonight. San Antonio has not lost three in a row all season, and they're not about to start Thursday. Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are overvalued in this spot.

Remember, San Antonio lost to Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season, so the Spurs want revenge. The Spurs have gotten plenty of revenge thus far, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Memphis this season. They want to stick the dagger in and twist it tonight by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0.

The Spurs are 23-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. The Grizzlies are 13-16 on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.2 points/game at home, while Memphis is putting up a mere 91.8 points/game on the road.

The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* Heat/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls have been the best team in the league this season despite playing without Derrick Rose for much of it. The Bulls are 44-14 this season, including 16-7 without Rose, to grab ahold of the No. 1 seed in the East and in the NBA.

Rose is expected to return tonight from an ankle injury, so getting the Bulls as a mere 1.5-point home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Chicago has 82 consecutive home sellouts at the United Center, and these fans will be rocking as a Bulls win would all but assure them of the No. 1 seed in the East.

Miami has not been playing well of late, and it's not just going to change tonight against the best team in the NBA. The Heat lost 115-107 at home to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, allowing them to shoot 60.6 percent from the floor. In the last 10 games, the Heat have yielded an average of 95.8 points on 47.3 percent shooting, the latter notably higher than their season mark of 43.2 percent.

Chicago is 23-6 at hom this season, while Miami is just 16-12 on the road. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, failing to cover the spread 88% of the time. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Miami. Take Chicago Thursday.

15* Lakers/Spurs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 201.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a great rivalry as these two teams have been the top contenders in the Western Conference over the last decade. Defense usually reigns supreme.

Ten straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. Dating back further, 21 of the last 22 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

The Lakers are really going to miss Kobe Bryant offensively. They struggled in their last game without him, beating the Hornets 93-91 for 184 combined points. The Lakers are trying to slow it down offensively and run their offense through Bynum and Gasol without Bryant on the floor. They cannot afford to run with the Spurs, and will not try to tonight.

The UNDER is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 22-8 in Spurs last 30 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 8.5 points at home against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are the team in the playoff hunt, the Cavaliers have showed no signs of packing it in. I look for Cleveland to give Indiana all they can handle.

The Cavaliers do have some injury concerns right now with Kyrie Irving out and Anderson Varejao questionable, but they have actually been playing better without Irving. Many players are getting a chance to prove that they belong in the league, and they are making the most of their opportunities.

Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes a road win at Toronto and a 13-point home victory over the Bobcats. They also gave the Bucks and Nets all they could handle on the road in losing efforts. Guard Lester Hudson is one player taking advantage of the extra playing time, averaging 24.7 points in his last three games.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana won the first meeting on December 30th at home by a final of 98-91 in overtime. Cleveland would get their revenge with a 98-87 home victory on February 14th. The home team has won four of the last five, and I look for the home dominance to continue tonight.

Indiana is 0-11 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season, losing by an average score of 88.8 to 95.1 in this spot. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends make for an 18-0 system backin Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Wizards OVER 195

The Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards should easily combine for 196-plus points tonight, and I'm expecting 210-plus by game's end. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set given the circumstances heading into this one.

Dwight Howard, the best defensive 'eraser' in the game who can make of for teammates mistakes defensively, is listed as doubtful with a back injury tonight. Without Howard last night, the Magic beat the Detroit Pistons 119-89 for 208 combined points.

Not only does Howard make their defense twice as good, he is also the player that their offense runs through. Without having to run their offense through Howard, the Magic can now play a more up-tempo game with a smaller line-up. That's what they did against Detroit, and that's what they'll do against Washington tonight.

The Wizards are also without two of their best defensive players in C Nene and F Trevor Booker, who are each listed as doubtful with foot injuries. The Wizards were without these two last night against Charlotte, and they exploded for 113 points in a 28-point victory over the Bobcats.

The last two meetings in this series went OVER the posted total with a 109-103 home victory for Orlando and 212 combined points on February 1st, and a 102-95 road victory for the Magic and 197 combined points on February 29th.

The OVER is 6-2 in Orlando's last 8 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog. These last three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. While I have been riding the Bucks a lot lately against some of the weaker competition in this league, and they have been playing well, now is the time to fade them.

The Bucks are 19-4 against teams below .500 this season, but just 9-24 against teams above .500. After losing three of their last four, the Thunder are a very inspired team right now. They will be going after Milwaukee with everything they have tonight, especially considering they are tied with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the West.

Milwaukee is 45-71 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cleveland Cavaliers since Kyrie Irving went down with an injury. As a result, Cleveland is showing great value today against the New Jersey Nets, who should not be favored by 7.5 against any team in this league. I don't see the Nets being too motivated to play the Cavaliers tonight, which will make it tough for them to cover this large number.

Because their lines have been inflated of late, the Cavaliers have covered two straight with a 9-point loss at red-hot Milwaukee as a 12.5-point underdog, and an 84-80 outright win at Toronto as a 7-point dog. I can see them winning this game outright as well.

While the Cavaliers are without Irving, they have actually had other players step up in a big way. Antawn Jamison poured in 25 points against the Raptors, and Lester Hudson came off the bench to score 23 points. They have several players that are ready to take advantage of their opportunities.

The Nets are 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 0-10 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These three trends make for a 25-1 (96%) System backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +2

This line screams take Indiana as a small home favorite after their huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I'm going the other way. Off such a huge win, the Pacers are in for a big letdown tonight against the Boston Celtics. I expect the Celtics to win this one going away.

Indiana is a very tired team now. The Pacers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Thunder last night, so they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back. Plus, this will be Indiana's 8th game in 11 days! Fatigue will be a factor for the Pacers tonight.

Off consecutive losses to two of the best teams in the league in the Spurs and Bulls, and trailing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Celtics will be extremely motivated for a win here. I look for Boston to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.

Indiana is 0-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Take this combined 19-0 system backing Boston straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Golden State Warriors +8

The Golden State Warriors continue to fight despite knowing they are not going to make the playoffs this season. They are trying to play the role of spoiler, and they are giving some of the best teams in the league a run for their money of late. I look for them to give the Utah Jazz all they can handle tonight.

The Warriors are a very profitable 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Warriors have had Utah's number in recent meetings, winning three of the last five by 15, 7 and 18 points. Utah's two victories over Golden State during this stretch came by finals of 88-87 and 99-92 (OT).

Utah is 1-9 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Utah is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as an 8.5-point underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Detroit has been undervalued for months, and that's certainly the case again tonight. Any time Atlanta is this heavy of a favorite, I'm going to look to fade them if it's the right opponent.

Detroit is 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The betting public has not really been willing to back the Pistons, either, which is why they continually show great value. They have won five of their last six overall, with their only loss coming at Chicago during this stretch.

These teams have played in two very heated battles this season. Atlanta won the first meeting 107-101 in overtime on January 27th, but Detroit would have their revenge with an 86-85 win over the Hawks on March 9th. I believe this game will go right down to the wire as well.

The Hawks are 5-18 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses for just the second time this season. They haven't lost three straight once this year. I expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way with an inspired performance tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana is certainly playing well of late, but their run comes to an abrupt halt tonight. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be their 7th game in 10 days. That doesn't bode well for them considering the Thunder like to push the pace, which will ware down these Indiana players by the fourth quarter.

The Thunder are 55-25-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. As you can see by this trend, this team has unbelievable resiliency and knows how to bounce back. OKC is 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +7.5

The Chicago Bulls are likely to be without Derrick Rose once again tonight as he nurses a sore groin. He is listed as doubtful tonight, and from his comments, it appears there's almost no way he plays. Even if he does, I still like Boston to cover this inflated number.

Playing without Rose is finally starting to catch up to the Bulls, who have lost two straight for the first time all season. Meanwhile, Boston is finally starting to get healthy as they just got Ray Allen back last night. They gave San Antonio all they could handle, eventually falling 86-87.

Due to getting healthy, the Celtics are in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. Boston is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, winning four road games during this stretch. The Bulls were destroyed by the Thunder 78-92 on Sunday despite outscoring Oklahoma City 27-12 in the 4th quarter. They followed that up with a 93-99 home loss to Houston on Monday.

The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Boston Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +8.5

The New Jersey Nets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have all but played themselves out of the Western Conference playoff race over the last few months. I like to the Nets to cover this big number with ease tonight.

New Jersey is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 16-point home win over Indiana, and two road victories over Golden State and Sacramento. Their lone loss was a 4-point setback to the Los Angeles Lakers last night as they nearly pulled off the upset in Staples Center.

Portland hasn't won back-to-back games since late January, having alternated decisions in its last nine contests to put the club in a tough position heading into the final weeks of the season. Ownership really showed that they were not playing for this season, rather rebuilding for next when they decided to trade Gerald Wallace to New Jersey before the trade deadline.

Look for Wallace to have a big game against his former team tonight, and for the Blazers to continue to struggle. The Blazers have just one win by more than 6 points over their last 10 games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are each fighting for their playoff lives right now. Though Phoenix has won 15 of 22, it currently sits 10th in the West. However, the Suns are one-half game behind ninth-place Utah (28-26) and 1 1/2 back of Houston, which owns the eighth and final playoff spot.

I like the way Phoenix has been playing for the last couple months, and I believe they are simply catching too many points tonight against a banged-up Jazz bunch. Utah is without starting SG Raja Bell, and they may also be without starting PG Devin Harris, who is listed as questionable after leaving their last game with an ankle injury.

The main reason I am backing the Suns tonight is because it's simply a match-up nightmare for Utah. Phoenix has absolutely owned this series over the last few seasons, and I don't see that changing here. The Suns have won six straight over Utah, which includes five wins by 9 points or more. They should not be the underdog in this one.

The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 16-34 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 196.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat just played each other less than two weeks ago on March 25th. Oklahoma City won that game 103-87 at home for 190 combined points. With the familiarity of having just played each other, I believe this rematch will easily see less than 196.5 combined points.

These huge National TV games always seem to be lower-scoring. The fact of the matter is that when players get on National TV, they get tight offensively, but their effort is better defensively. I believe that will be the case here, plus their familiarity with one another will make points hard to come by as each team makes the proper adjustments defensively.

Miami is 11-3 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season, and we're seeing an average of 182.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +9.5

I have been fading the Los Angeles Lakers quite a bit lately, and with great success. I got recent covers on the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors while going against the Lakers at home. Los Angeles just has a knack for playing to the level of their competition, and they rarely blow out teams that they are supposed to.

New Jersey is playing very well of late, and they'll be chomping at the bit to face the Lakers in Staples Center tonight. That's a big reason why the Lakers struggle against the spread at home is because they always get the opposing team's best shot. The Nets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Indiana 100-84 at home before going on the road to knock off the Warriors and Kings.

The Lakers are in a huge look-ahead spot tonight. They lead the Pacific Division by just one game over the Los Angeles Clippers, which would mean they'd be the No. 3 seed if the season were to end today. Guess who the Lakers play tomorrow night? The Clippers, which is a team they will be much more interested in facing than the Nets.

Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. L.A. is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These five trends make for a 38-2 (95%) system backing New Jersey. Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7

This is a huge letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis caught Oklahoma City playing the second of a back-to-back last night and took advantage, beating the Thunder 94-88 on the road. After such a huge win over the No. 1 seed in the West, and playing the second of a back-to-back, there is a very good chance the Grizzlies come out flat tonight.

Another reason I believe they will come out flat is because this is a look-ahead game as well. Memphis will be playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tomorrow night, which is a game they will be much more interested in than this one with the Warriors tonight.

While the Warriors have lost five straight, four of those losses came by 8 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. Golden State has lost their first three meetings of the season with the Grizzlies, though two of those losses came by a single point each. That makes the Warriors the more motivated team tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep.

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point underdog to the Toronto Raptors. This is a battle between two teams that aren't going to make the playoffs, and as a result it's going to be hard for Toronto to be motivated enough to win this game by double-digits.

While Charlotte continues to lose, they have at least been more competitive of late to show that they have not completely packed it in. The Bobcats have lost three of their last four games by 7 points or less, and they just took Detroit to overtime on the road last time out. The Bobcats have had two days' rest since that loss to the Pistons.

Toronto should not be laying 9 points to any team in this league. While they have been better than the Bobcats this season, the Raptors still aren't that good at 18-35. Plus, the Bobcats have their number, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings dating back to 2010.

The Raptors are 4-17 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite since 1996. Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I like the Kentucky Wildcats to roll tonight over the Kansas Jayhawks. Kentucky has been the best team in the country all year, and they'll cap it off with a win and cover tonight to give head coach John Calipari his first championship.

Kansas is very fortunate to be here having won three times by 3 points or less in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kentucky has stormed through the field with five victories all by 8 points or more, and four by 12 points or more.

These teams faced each other back on November 15th earlier this season on a neutral court. Kentucky won that game 75-65 despite going just 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the free throw line and committing a whopping 19 turnovers. They had a sub-par performance and still won by 10 points.

Kansas is 6-15 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 18-36 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Bet Kentucky Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Bulls UNDER 186

The Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two tired teams as both will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. With both teams playing on tired legs, the pace will be much slower than usual.

Both teams are without their best offensive players. The Bulls are without leading scorer Derrick Rose (22.8 points), while the Rockets are without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 points) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 points).

The Rockets combined for 171 points against Dallas, 187 points against Memphis, and 186 points at the end of regulation against Indiana in their last three games, respectively. The Bulls combined for 175 points against Atlanta, 154 points against Detroit, and 170 points against Oklahoma City in their last three games, respectively.

Houston is 53-24 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Bulls are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall. The Rockets are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing great value as a double-digit underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. I almost always go against the Lakers when they're favored by double-digits, and that's certainly the case today.

Los Angeles had a bad habit of playing to their competition. They can beat the best teams in the league, but they can also lose to the worst. That was evident earlier this season as they lost to the Pistons and Wizards on back-to-back nights.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored for a reason here against the Kansas Jayhawks. While these are two No. 2 seeds battling it out for a spot in the National Championship, I have no doubt that the Buckeyes are the superior team. That will show on the floor Saturday night.

Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule to get here, and they've been more impressive in doing so. They beat Loyola-MD (78-59), underrated Gonzaga (73-66), red hot Cincinnati (81-66) and top-seeded Syracuse (77-70) to reach this point. The Buckeyes got here in pretty convincing fashion to say the least.

For starters, Kansas essentially played home games in their first four contests. They played their first two in Omaha, Nebraska, beating Detroit 65-50 before squeaking by Purdue 63-60. They played their next two games in St. Louis, Missouri, topping NC State 60-57 before using a 12-0 run over the final few minutes to beat North Carolina 80-67. Oh yeah, the Tar Heels were playing without the nation's leader in assists in Kendall Marshall.

Ohio State matches up with Kansas very well. They have the best on-ball defender in the country in Aaron Craft (8.8 points, 4.7 assists, 2.5 steals) to slow down KU's Tyshawn Taylor, who is 0-for-17 from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Jared Sullinger (17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks) against Thomas Robinson (17.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks) is essentially a wash, though I would take Sullinger myself.

Kansas did beat Ohio State at home 78-67 in their lone meeting this season, but Sullinger sat out that game with back spasms. Having Sullinger this time around is going to make all the difference. Robinson scored 21 points in that game only because Sullinger was not on the floor to help defend him.

Plus, KU does not have an answer for Deshaun Thomas (16.1 points) and William Buford (14.4 points). Buford put up 21 points in their first meeting, and Thomas added 19 points. These two mismatches that are hugely in Ohio State's favor are likely going to be the difference in why the Buckeyes move on.

The Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been rolling ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Getting them as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight over Memphis is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll take advantage.

The Bucks are 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 121-84 blowout win at Cleveland, which allowed them to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. That will be to their benefit tonight against a Memphis team that took Houston down to the wire last night, but eventually lost 89-98.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. I'll take these two 100% systems backing the Bucks straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Milwaukee Saturday.

20* Louisville/Kentucky Final Four No-Brainer on Louisville +9

The Louisville Cardinals are simply catching too many points against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four Saturday. While John Calipari is the better recruiter with more talent on the floor, he's not the better coach. I'll back Rick Pitino with this much time to prepare almost every single time.

Pitino and the Cardinals actually have an extra day to get ready for Kentucky. Louisville played last Saturday, while Kentucky played on Sunday. I have no doubt that Pitino will use his time to prepare to come up with a better game plan than Calipari will.

Louisville has been on an absolute tear since finally getting healthy. They won four games in four days to win the Big East Tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams along the way. They then won four straight games in the big dance to get here, including a 57-44 victory over top-seeded Michigan State.

These teams played once already this season back on December 31st. Louisville came in as a 10-point underdog at Kentucky, yet only lost 62-69 while covering that huge number. That was back when the Cardinals weren't healthy, with guys playing through injury, while missing other players. Now healthy, and on a neutral court this time around, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to pull off this upset.

In that game back on December 31st, the Cardinals used their press to near perfection. Louisville limited Kentucky to 17-of-57 shooting (29.8 percent) for the game, including 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from 3-point range. The Cardinals only shot 20-of-62 (32.3 percent) themselves, but this game was won at the free throw line. Louisville simply fouled too much, and Kentucky took advantage by making a whopping 32-of-43 from the free throw line. That allowed the Wildcats to overcome their 20 turnovers.

Look for the Cardinals to be smarter about the fouls this time around, while continuing to keep the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.

25* Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Jazz UNDER 214

Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set tonight. I fully expect the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz to combine to finish in the 195-205 point range in this one. This total has been inflated, making it my strongest over/under play in the Western Conference this season.

Season averages alone show that this number has been set too high. Sacramento is scoring 98.3 points/game and giving up 103.8 points/game this season for an average combined score of 202.1 points/game. Utah is scoring 98.8 points/game and giving up 98.7 points/game for an average combined score of 197.5 points/game.

Looking at home/away numbers, and this total has been set even further off the mark. Sacramento is scoring 94.7 points/game and giving up 104.6 points/game on the road for an average combined score of 199.3 points/game. Utah is scoring 101.0 points/game and yielding 94.4 points/game at home for an average combined score of 195.4 points/game.

The Jazz and Kings have combined to score 211 or less points in 11 straight meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set. In their three meetings this season alone, the Jazz and Kings have combined for 189, 199 and 205 points, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -11.5

The Chicago Bulls have not missed a beat with Derrick Rose out of the line-up. The Bulls, who again expect to be without Rose, look to win their 14th straight over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night at the United Center. Chicago (41-11) is second in the NBA in scoring defense at 88.9 points per game, which is a big reason why they are 13-5 without Rose this season.

Detroit (18-32) is one of the league's lowest-scoring teams at 89.9 per game. In their most recent meeting Jan. 9, Chicago limited the Pistons to 39.4 percent shooting in a 92-68 home win. The Bulls also won at Detroit 99-83 five days earlier and have taken 13 straight in the series since Dec. 23, 2008.

Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they could be without starting guard Rodney Stuckey and backup Ben Gordon due to injuries. Stuckey, who hurt his left hamstring Wednesday, averages a team-best 16.1 points while Gordon averages 12.3. Stuckey is really the only reason this team has remained somewhat competitive, and without him they have no chance of keeping this one close.

Detroit has lost 11 straight in Chicago, with the last four defeats coming by an average of 20.0 points. The Pistons are only averaging 79.5 points/game in their last four contests, which doesn't bode well for them against the league's second-best defense. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Chicago Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5

While the Washington Wizards are among the league's worst teams again this season, this squad continues to fight. They only have 11 wins on the season, but the Wizards have been a much more competitive team since trading for Nene.

It hasn't shown in the win column as the Wizards are 0-5 in their last five games, but four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. Plus, four of those losses were against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They get another playoff team tonight in Philadelphia, and I fully expect Washington to give the 76ers a run for their money.

Philly is just 10-12 SU & 10-12 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to win by 9 points or more is simply asking too much tonight. Washington is 67-38 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been in the media a lot lately due to some recent benchings of their star players. Kobe Bryant was benched in their 96-102 home loss to Memphis Sunday, but he responded well by going off for 30 points in a 104-101 victory at Golden State Tuesday. Bryant hit two clutch jumpers over the final 1:04 to give his team the win.

Andrew Bynum was benched for an ill-advised 3-pointer he shot near the end of the 3rd quarter in that win over the Warriors. He sat out the final nine minutes of the game, and didn't handle the benching will in the media. After Kobe led by example and responded with a great game against Golden State, I believe Bynum will follow in his footsteps and have a monster night against the Thunder to lead the Lakers to victory.

This is a huge game for L.A. to prove to Oklahoma City that they aren't going anywhere, and that they are still the team to beat in the West. Kobe and the Lakers certainly respond well in these "big" games. They just beat Miami earlier this month 93-83, and they are 3-0 against Dallas this season, the team that swept them in the playoffs last year. Look for L.A. to revenge their 100-85 road loss at Oklahoma City just before the All-Star Break.

The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Lakers Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on Dallas +8

Miami already had its "revenge game" against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, who beat the Heat in the NBA Finals last year. The Heat would get their payback with a 105-94 road victory in Dallas on Christmas Day. While Miami certainly wants to beat Dallas again, they won't be as motivated as they were when they played on Christmas.

This line is simply inflated, and I don't see any way the Heat win this game by more than 8 points with the way they've been playing of late. Through March 1st, Miami was the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 103.8 points per game. Since then, the Heat are just 25th in the league at 93.1 points per game. Every team behind them is out of the playoff picture.

Miami is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Oklahoma City and Indiana by a combined 31 points. They just aren't playing well right now, and making matters worse is the fact that Lebron James just suffered a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. It happened against the Pacers, and it clearly affected him as he caught almost every pass with his right hand.

Dallas really, really needs this win tonight. The Mavericks are just two games ahead of ninth-place Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. That means they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don't get their act together quick. Dallas has done a good job of that with back-to-back wins over Houston, and they now come into this game well-rested having played just two games over the last five days.

The Mavericks are a sensational 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last four trends make for a perfect 34-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Wizards/Pacers NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Washington +10.5

The Washington Wizards are showing great value tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. The biggest reason I'm on Washington is due to the status of the Pacers, who have to be extremely tired right now. Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 6th game in 8 days.

The Pacers started to show signs of fatigue last night when they just didn't have it in an 84-100 loss at lowly New Jersey. They committed 18 turnovers, and gave up 100-plus points for the third time in four games. Indiana has given up 100 or more just 12 times, but seven of those came in its last 13 contests. The Pacers are 2-10 when surrendering triple digits.

While Washington is 0-4 since trading for Nene, there's no denying that they have been playing much better basketball. Three of those losses came by three points or fewer, and the Wizards are going to be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's nice to see that this team is still fighting, which is what I expect them to continue doing here.

This play falls into a system that is 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (INDIANA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Pacers are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Clippers UNDER 194.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers have played in two low-scoring games already this month. Phoenix beat L.A. 81-78 for 159 combined points on March 2nd, and the Suns were victorious again by a final of 91-87 for 178 combined points on March 15th. I look for a similar low-scoring output tonight as these teams come nowhere near combining for 194.5.

Phoenix is a very tired team right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to run the floor like they usually would.

The Clippers have been having a tough time putting up points since losing Chauncey Billups. L.A. has scored 97 or less points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, but they have defended well. The Clippers have given up 97 or less points in nine of those 11 contests as well. They'll control the tempo at home tonight, which will be a much slower pace than Phoenix is used to.

The UNDER is 23-10 in Suns last 33 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a 3.5-point favorite tonight over the Utah Jazz. Utah is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their impressive play of late. But now is the time to fade Utah as the value is clearly no longer with them.

Utah has won seven of their last eight, but this is a tired team right now. The Jazz will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and one of those contests included a four-overtime game against Atlanta. I like the way the Celtics are playing of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. What's most impressive is that four of those five games were on the road.

The Jazz are just 8-17 on the road this season, while the Celtics are 17-8 at home. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing Boston. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic are showing great value as just a 2-point favorite against the short-handed New York Knicks tonight. Orlando is well-rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They come in the fresher team, and the healthier squad as well.

The Knicks will be playing without Amar'e Stoudemire (back), Jeremy Lin (knee), Jared Jeffries (knee), and Bill Walker (elbow). Not to mention, Carmelo Anthony is banged up with a groin injury. He's expected to play tonight, but won't be at full strength.

The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Magic are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three by 10 points or more. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 193.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks in Western Conference action. The last two meetings in this series went to overtime, but both were defensive battles.

On 4/11/11, these teams were tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points. In their lone meeting this season on 3/24/12 just three nights ago, these teams were tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points. I don't see this game finishing anywhere near the 193.5-point total.

Houston is a tired team as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Each of their last two games went to overtime, so this squad is running on fumes. Plus, the Rockets are already short-handed without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG) due to injury.

Dallas and their opponents are combining to average 188.3 points/game this season. The Mavs have become more a defensive-minded team since the playoffs last year. They give up just 92.3 points/game at home on 42.5 percent shooting.

The Mavs are 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Milwaukee had won six straight before losing three of their last four to playoff teams in Boston, Indiana and New York. If the Bucks want to be a playoff team, they know they cannot afford to lose many more games down the stretch as they trail the Knicks by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

I believe the Bucks get back on track tonight and buckle down at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I certainly like the way this team is playing with the addition of Monte Ellis. They now have numerous guards that can penetrate the lane and either score themselves, or find open teammates. Milwaukee has been scoring at will, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 11.

Atlanta has won four straight coming in. With a game against the East-leading Chicago Bulls lined up for tomorrow, this is a huge letdown spot for the Hawks. They are feeling good about their four-overtime victory over Utah a couple nights ago, which was the first 4 OT game since 1997. Off such a historical accomplishment, it'd be easy to see Atlanta come out flat here. Plus, the Bucks want revenge from two 5-point losses to the Hawks this season, so they'll be the more motivated team.

Atlanta is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 120 points or more. The Hawks are 14-28 ATS in their last 42 following 2 or more consecutive wins. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* NIT Final Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts +2.5

The Massachusetts Minutemen have been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point. I don't think there's any way they should be an underdog to the Stanford Cardinal in this one. UMass is going to have a solid home-court advantage, though they haven't needed it to get here.

UMass has pulled off three straight upsets on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. The Minutemen won 101-96 at Mississippi State as a 7-point dog, 77-67 at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point dog, and 72-70 at Drexel as a 7.5-point dog. They had to come back from a huge deficit against Drexel, and that comeback win has this team believing they won't be denied.

Stanford has had a much easier path to get here. The Cardinals have won three straight home games against Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada. I don't believe one of those teams is as good as any of the three teams that UMass has faced.They even needed overtime to beat Illinois State. Stanford is 17-3 at home this season, but just 5-6 on the road. The Cardinal won't be playing with nearly as much confidence knowing that they'll essentially be the road team in this one.

The Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. UMass is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Massachusetts Tuesday.

15* Pitt/WSU CBI Tournament Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +1

Both the Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington State Cougars have played very well to reach the CBI Tournament Championship Series. Both have won three games in a row to get here, but I have been more impressed with Washington State's path. Game 1 of this Best of 3 series will be played on the Cougars' home floor tonight.

Washington State has had to go on the road to pick up two very impressive wins as underdogs to get here. The Cougars opened with an 89-75 victory at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog. They would beat Wyoming 61-41 at home as a 2-point favorite before going on the road and knocking off Oregon State 72-55 as a 6.5-point underdog. As you can see, they have won each game by 14-plus points.

Pittsburgh opened with two very easy opponents at home with a 81-63 victory over Wofford followed by a 82-61 triumph over Princeton. They did beat Butler 68-62 on the road in their last game, but the Bulldogs are way down this season as it has been a rebuilding year for them. I believe Pittsburgh meets its match tonight in Washington State.

The Cougars are 11-4 at home, while the Panthers are just 4-8 in true road games this year. Washington State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by an average of 14.4 points/game. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Roll with Washington State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 209.5

Oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight between the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets. This will be just the second meeting between these Western Conference foes. The first resulted in a 103-89 home victory for Houston and 192 combined points, and I expect a similar scoring output here tonight.

Houston is without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG). That's a lot of production to be missing. Houston and their opponents have combined for 207 or less points in six of their last seven games. They have topped the 200-point mark just twice during this stretch.

The Rockets are 10-2 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Houston is 18-6 to the UNDER in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1996. Sacramento is 63-36 to the UNDER off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks +6

The Milwaukee Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are simply catching too many points tonight against the overrated New York Knicks. The Bucks are in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Knicks for the eighth and final playoff spot. They certainly want this game more than most.

Milwaukee has won seven of their last nine games overall. Better yet, the Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. Since trading for Monte Ellis, this has been a completely different team. The Bucks are scoring at will now, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

New York is playing well of late too, winning six of their last seven. However, this team has played a very easy schedule during this stretch, and they have not fared well recently against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU & a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New York.

The Knicks are 1-10 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the fact that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks, and we have a combined 26-1 (96%) system backing Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +7

I'm always looking to fade the Los Angeles Lakers when they're getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. While this team has been great at home this year, they should not be favored by seven points over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 25-6 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. This is a deep team that handles these situations very well. The Lakers are 16-31 ATS in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Kansas/UNC Elite Eight No-Brainer on North Carolina +2

The UNC Tar Heels get the nod Sunday as an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks. Even without Kendall Marshall, I believe the Tar Heels are the better team here and it will show on the court today.

Kansas' biggest strength is their inside game with Thomas Robinson. UNC has a better post game than Kansas with the likes of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. These two are an unstoppable force inside.

The Jayhawks are now 2-11 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Kansas is 4-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. Kansas is 2-10 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take UNC Sunday.

20* Baylor/Kentucky Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor +8

The Baylor Bears are showing great value here Sunday. This is actually a great match-up for them. Baylor is usually the most athletic team when they take the court. Kentucky is the only team in the country that rivals Baylor's athleticism.

Look for the Bears to give the Wildcats all they can handle here. They have been one of the best teams in the tournament with wins over South Dakota State, Colorado and Xavier. I fully expect them to stay within eight points of the Wildcats in this one.

The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Kentucky is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Bet Baylor Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +13

The Chicago Bulls are getting way too much love tonight. Toronto wants this game more, and as a result they'll easily stay within this 13-point spread, likely winning outright.

These teams just played three days ago on March 21st with the Bulls winning 94-82 despite the Raptors leading almost the entire way. Toronto blew it late, and now they want revenge. Chicago will be playing with Derrick Rose once again, and they cannot possibly cover this inflated number.

The Raptors are a very profitable 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Raptors Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Syracuse Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -2.5

Ohio State is a match-up nightmare for Syracuse. With Fab Melo suspended for the entire NCAA Tournament, the Orange have nobody who can guard Jared Sullinger. He's in line for a monster games as the Buckeyes march on to the Final Four.

Syracuse is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The loss of Fab Melo hasn't hurt them yet in the tournament, but they're finally against a team where his loss will be felt.

The Orange are 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Louisville/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Louisville +1.5

The Louisville Cardinals should not be an underdog to the seventh-seeded Cardinals. Louisville is showing excellent value here Saturday in a game I believe they'll win outright. Florida has had a nice run, but they run into a buzz saw this afternoon.

Few teams in the country are playing as well as Louisville. This team was beat up all season with injuries, but they finally got healthy towards the end of the year and started to play up to their potential. As a result, they won the Big East Tournament and have won seven straight coming in.

Louisville is 7-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +9

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are this big of a favorite, I look to fade them. I did so with success just a few games back. They were an 11-point home favorite against Utah, but lost 99-103 less than a week ago on March 18th.

This is a team that I follow closely. I know that the Lakers always seem to play to their competition. They can look great against the best teams in the league, but they can also look terrible against some of the worst teams in the game. Recent examples of that are upset losses to Detroit and Washington in consecutive nights. They also lost to Utah and Houston in back-to-back games as favorites.

Portland has been going through a tough stretch of late, which has them undervalued right now. I still believe this team has better talent than over half of the teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before they figure it out. Portland took a step in the right direction last night with a 97-93 home victory over Memphis. They'll be motivated to see if they can beat the Lakers here tonight.

The Lakers are 6-15 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Portland is 20-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet Portland Friday.

20* NC State/Kansas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on NC State +8

The NC State Wolfpack are one of the most underrated teams left in the field. They have been playing for their NCAA Tournament lives since a 77-73 victory over Miami back on February 29th. This team won their final two games of the regular season, then won two games in the ACC Tournament to solidify their spot in the big dance.

What impressed me more than anything was NC State's 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals. That loss showed that the Wolfpack could play with anyone. After beating San Diego State and Georgetown in the first two rounds of the big dance, they are now 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

Kansas needed some fortunate breaks down the stretch of their last game just to make it to the Sweet 16. Despite coming in as an 8-point underdog, Purdue gave the Jayhawks all they could handle. Kansas eventually prevailed 63-60. That close win, coupled with a 72-81 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, shows their vulnerability. Asking the Jayhawks to cover 8 points is simply asking too much here.

NC State is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. NC State is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. These five trends make for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Bet NC State Friday.

15* Ohio/UNC Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Ohio +10.5

The Ohio Bobcats have been the biggest surprise in the tournament thus far. It shouldn't come as too big of a surprise though considering how well this team played early in the year. Ohio opened 12-1 with their only loss coming at then-No. 7 Louisville by a final of 54-59. While they are a No. 13 seed, this team is playing more like one of the top seeds in the tournament.

Ohio features two stud guards in D.J. Cooper (14.9 points, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals) and Walter Offutt (12.0 points, 1.6 steals) who can carry this team. Cooper has scored 40 points and Offutt has put up 32 in two NCAA Tournament games. The Bobcats will actually have the advantage at the guard positions in this game due to the health of UNC point guard Kendall Marshall.

Marshall, the nation's leading assist man, suffered a fractured wrist in UNC's victory over Creighton last round. While it's possible he may play, it is very unlikely. Even if he does go, Marshall will not be at 100% and will likely be hurting his team by being out there.

Freshman Stilman White (4.3 minutes per game) and senior Justin Watts (only two stints at point guard this season) would be first in line to replace Marshall as UNC

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7.5

There is no team that I have been riding more lately than the Cincinnati Bearcats. Somehow, some way this team continues to go under the radar. The Bearcats have been a determined, focused bunch ever since their ugly brawl with Xavier back in December. They are the sleeper of the 16 teams left in the big dance.

Cincinnati got their momentum for the NCAA Tournament by making it all the way to the Big East Championship, knocking off the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse along the way. They carried that momentum over into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Texas and Florida State in their first two games.

What I really like about this team is the way that they are set up. They have exactly what it takes to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats have three stud guards in Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals), Dion Dixon (13.1 points, 1.6 steals), and Cashmere Wright (10.7 points, 4.6 assists, 2.1 steals).

I have no doubt in my mind that the Bearcats have the better guards in this match-up with Ohio State. What also makes this a great match-up for Cincinnati is the fact that they have a center who can contain Jared Sullinger of the Buckeyes. Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds) has been playing at a very high level for weeks, and he'll hold his own against Sullinger.

The Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Buckeyes are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Roll with Cincinnati Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 201

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight. Any time you have the Boston Celtics in a game and the total is over 200 points, you should automatically think take the UNDER. That's precisely what I'm doing here in a game that I believe will be played in the 180's.

The reason this total is set so high is because Milwaukee has been scoring at will of late against some of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Bucks have scored over 100 points in seven straight games against the likes of the Blazers, Warriors, Cavaliers, Nets, Raptors, Knicks and Bulls. Only one of those teams plays defense at an above-average level, and that is the Bulls.

Boston will be determined to put an end to that 100 points streak as they are one of the few teams in the league that takes pride in their defense. The Celtics give up just 90.6 points/game and 42.6 percent shooting this year. Boston is also having trouble offensively, especially away from home where they are scoring a mere 89.4 points/game. Boston games are averaging a combined 181.7 points/game this season, nearly 20 points below this posted total.

In their last 12 meetings dating back to 2008, Boston and Milwaukee have combined to score 201 or less points at the end of regulation all 12 times. That's an 11-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.