20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +13.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz.  They have won seven straight games coming in with several in blowout fashion.  But they did have three wins by 4 points or less during this stretch as well, and they could be without their best player in Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), who sat out last game for personal reasons and is questionable again tonight.

Conversely, it's time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls off five straight losses.  They have been battling through injury and chemistry issues but could get both Zach LaVine and Coby White back tonight as they have both been upgraded to questionable.  The Bulls showed last time out that they could compete on the road with a team as good as the Phoenix Suns in a 116-121 loss as 8.5-point dogs despite not having both White and LaVine.  

Nikola Vucevic is getting more comfortable in the system after getting traded from Orlando.  And the Bulls want revenge from a 95-120 home loss to the Jazz that started this losing streak on March 22nd, but that was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them, while the Jazz were on two days' rest coming into that game.

The Bulls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.  Chicago is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after a non-conference game.  Plays on any team (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off three or more consecutive road losses are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Heat UNDER 220

We have two UNDER teams going at it tonight when the Warriors visit the Miami Heat Thursday night.  The Warriors are 28-19 UNDER in all games this season, while the Heat are 27-21 UNDER in all games.

The Heat have definitely been an UNDER team of late as five of their last six games have seen 215 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged just 205.5 combined points per game with their opponents in their last six games.  And now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 92-87 win in Indiana last night.  They will be on tired legs and won't be looking to push the tempo.

The Heat will control the tempo playing at home tonight, and they rank 27th in pace at 99.2 possessions per game.  They are also 5th in defensive efficiency.  The Warriors have quietly ranked 9th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the most improved teams in the NBA on that end of the floor.  They struggle to score outside Stephen Curry, which is why they rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency, but they have Draymond Green and Wiseman to anchor their defense.  The Heat are just 23rd in offensive efficiency this season.

This will be a rematch from a February 17th meeting between the Heat and Warriors that was tied 105-105 at the end of regulation for just 210 combined points before going over the total in overtime.  If not for OT, the UNDER would be 6-3 in the last nine meetings with combined scores of 218 or fewer points in six of those nine meetings.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Warriors last 10 road games when the line is +3 to -3.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Hornets/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +3.5

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued right now due to going 19-3 SU in their last 22 games overall.  I've been selling high on them for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to 'sell high' on them tonight as 3.5-point favorites against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Nets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They only beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point home favorites, beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point road favorites, beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Pistons by 2 as 6.5-point road favorites, only beat the Timberwolves by 5 as 10.5-point favorites and beat the Rockets by 12 as 12.5-point favorites in their eight non-covers during this stretch.  

As you can see, the Nets aren't blowing anyone out, and they haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points.  They trailed by 11 late in the 3rd quarter last night against the Rockets, so they used a lot of energy to come back from that deficit to win that game.  They did it all without James Harden, who left with a hamstring injury.  He is almost certainly going to be out tonight, and without him and Kevin Durant, this team is just not very good.  The Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank after that comeback against the Rockets last night.

Now they face a Charlotte Hornets team that is playing some of their best basketball of the season.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Phoenix Suns in overtime.  They have been way undervalued due to playing without LaMelo Ball, but they have the depth at the guard positions with Graham and Rozier to make up for his absence.

Charlotte pulled the 106-104 upset as 11-point dogs to a healthy Nets team in their last meeting this season.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Charlotte.  Take the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 227.5

This will be the 3rd meeting in 6 days between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  The just played a double-header in Utah on March 26th and 27th.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and I think this is the perfect spot to back the UNDER tonight, especially after those first two meetings went over the total.

The biggest difference here other than the familiarity is that Utah won't have leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG).  He had 35 points in each of those first two meetings for 70 points across those two games.  That's a lot of production they are going to be missing, and it will certainly help us cash this UNDER ticket.

The UNDER is 30-10 in Grizzlies last 40 home games.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Grizzlies last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 30-9 in the last 39 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for revenge after losing to the Jazz in back-to-back games on March 26th and 27th.  They lost by 3 on the 26th and by 16 on the 27th.  Now they get to face them just four days later and at home this time around.

The Grizzlies have been playing well now that they are healthy.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The biggest difference here from those first two meetings is that they won't have to face Utah leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), who had 35 points in each of those two meetings with Memphis.  He's irreplaceable for this team.

It's mind-blowing that the Jazz are still 5.5-point favorites here without Mitchell.  It just goes to show how overvalued they really are right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 35-11, plus going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on Utah.

It's also worth noting the Jazz' plane had to turn around last night after hitting a pack of pigeons and having smoke coming out of the engine.  That's definitely a distraction heading into this game, and I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to beat the Grizzlies a 3rd time in less than a week.

The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  Memphis is 38-15 ATS in its last 53 home games following a road win by 10 points or more.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued right now due to going 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall.  I've been selling high on them for a few weeks now, and I'll continue to 'sell high' on them tonight as massive 13-point favorites over the Houston Rockets.

The Nets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They only beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point home favorites, beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point road favorites, beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Pistons by 2 as 6.5-point road favorites, and only beat the Timberwolves by 5 as 10.5-point favorites in their seven non-covers during this stretch.  

As you can see, the Nets aren't blowing anyone out, and they haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Rockets catching 13 points tonight.  And this is a Rockets team that is improving now that they are getting healthy, mainly getting their best player in Christian Wood back from injury.

The Rockets have only lost one of their last five games by more than 10 points.  They upset the Raptors by 18 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Timberwolves by 22 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to the Grizzlies by 10 and the Timberwolves by 6 in a game they should have won after giving up a big lead late in the 4th.

The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is simply just going through the motions of late, especially against bad teams.  They won't be all that excited to face the Rockets either, while Houston will relish this opportunity to try and upset the Nets.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +11.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins and covers over Philadelphia and Milwaukee, and they have huge games on deck against both the Nuggets and Lakers in their next two games.  This is the letdown spot where they don't show up tonight against the Orlando Magic, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 11.5-point spread.

That's not the only reason its a terrible spot for the Clippers, either.  They are a tired team right now playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their win over the Bucks last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA today.  Paul George sat out last night and is questionable tonight.  Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly and Rajon Rondo are all questionable.  And don't be surprised if they sit Kawhi Leonard to rest after he played more than 36 minutes last night.

The Magic are about as undervalued a team as you will find right now.  They just traded away three of their best players in Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier.  But they have gone 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset the Suns as 9.5-point dogs, only lost to the Blazers by 7 as 9.5-point dogs, and only lost to the Lakers by 3 as 7-point dogs.  They have some good new players in Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. from the Bulls, and they are expected to get Terrance Ross back in the lineup tonight from a knee injury.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder right now after all these trades and will relish this opportunity to try and beat the Clippers.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LA Clippers) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  They just played the Suns, Blazers and Lakers all tough, so they can certainly hang with the Clippers, too.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 220.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA since the beginning of March.  They are averaging 119.9 points per 100 possessions.  They have scored at least 110 points in 16 of their last 19 games overall.

The Philadelphia 76ers aren't as good defensively without Joel Embiid inside, but they haven't suffered much offensively, and they actually play at a faster tempo without him.  The 76ers have scored 108 or more points in 19 of their last 23 games overall.

Denver is 7-0 OVER after outrebounding its last opponents by 15 or more this season.  The OVER is 5-0 in 76ers last five games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last four games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 24-11 in Nuggets last 35 games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* USC/Gonzaga Elite 8 No-Brainer on USC +8.5

The fact that Gonzaga has won 26 straight games by double-digits has this line inflated.  They have had such an easy path in those 26 games and certainly in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Norfolk State, an Oklahoma team missing its second-leading scorer and an overrated Creighton team.

Gonzaga will be in for its stiffest test of the season tonight against this USC team that is just rolling through some good opponents.  The Trojans are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Colorado.  They have won their three NCAA Tournament games by 16 over Drake, by 34 over Kansas and by 14 over Oregon.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

USC is tricky defensively.  The Mobley brothers inside have made them the best 2-point defense in the country.  And they are mixing in their zone defense very well and will continue to do so here against Gonzaga to give them some looks that they have never seen before.  And the Bulldogs only have one day to prepare for it after beating Creighton on Saturday, which is a huge advantage for USC.

I also like the matchup for the Mobley brothers inside against Gonzaga.  The one weakness for the Bulldogs is their interior defense as Timme is soft at defending the rim, and they don't really have anyone else to do it.  Well, if there's any team that can punish them for being soft inside, it's definitely USC with the Mobley brothers.  The Trojans have been extremely efficient offensive, shooting 47.2% or better in seven consecutive games, including 50% or better in four straight.

Andy Enfield is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, going 7-0 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet USC Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +16

The Utah Jazz are way overvalued right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 34-11 and winning five straight games coming in, including three in blowout fashion.  

It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Jazz now in their second-largest favorite role of the entire season.  The last time they were this big of a favorite they failed to cover as 19-point favorites in a 15-point win over Houston, which was mired in a 20-plus game losing streak.

The Cavaliers are much better than the Rockets, and they will give the Jazz more of a battle than they are prepared for.  Cleveland is 3-4 SU but 4-3 ATS in its last seven games overall with upset wins over Boston as 7.5-point dogs, Toronto as 7.5-point dogs and Chicago as 7.5-point dogs.  They also covered in a 2-point loss to Sacramento as 9-point dogs.  

Leading scorer Collin Sexton (24.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) returned from a hamstring injury and scored 26 points against the Kings.  Having him healthy makes all the difference for this team.  He had 36 points in the upset of Toronto and 29 in the upset of Boston.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - a good team with a +7 PPG or better scoring margin against a bad team with a -7 PPG or worse scoring margin on the season after 42-plus game, after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  I think the Jazz take the Cavaliers lightly tonight as well, which will help them get the cover.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Spurs OVER 228

This is a very low total for a Kings game this season.  The Kings have been one of the best OVER teams in the NBA this season as they are 27-19 OVER in their 46 games.  They are dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions.  They also play at the 10th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.

The Spurs will oblige as they also like to push the tempo, shoot a lot of 3-pointers and play little defense.  The last time these teams squared off the Spurs won 129-120 for 249 combined points.  There's definitely some value on the OVER tonight given how both teams like to play.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Sacramento) - off two or more consecutive wins, with a losing record on the season are 52-19 (73.2%) over the last five seasons.

Sacramento is 17-7 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 35-17 in Kings last 52 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5

Lines on the Brooklyn Nets have gotten out of hand recently due to their current 17-3 SU run.  I've been 'selling high' on them for weeks, and I'll continue to do so tonight as they are 11.5-point favorites here against the Minnesota Timberwolves now.

The Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall despite going 6-2 SU during this stretch.  They beat Detroit by 2 as 6.5-point favorites, lost to the Jazz by 30 as 13-point dogs, only beat the Wizards by 7 as 9-point home favorites, lost outright to the Magic by 8 as 10.5-point favorites, only beat the Knicks by 5 as 8.5-point favorites and also beat the Pistons by 5 as 11-point favorites.

The Timberwolves have been much more competitive since returning from the All-Star Break.  They have gone 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins over the Pelicans by 30 as 8-point dogs, by 2 over the Blazers as 5.5-point dogs and by 4 over the Suns as 11-point dogs.  They just got second-leading scorer Malik Beasley (20.3 PPG) back from a 12-game suspension on Saturday and will be an even more dangerous team with him back in the lineup moving forward.

Plays on underdogs (Minnesota) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 44-19 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  They aren't that tired as they had yesterday off, and they'll have no problem getting motivated to face the Nets after they weren't motivated against the Rockets on Saturday after beating them Friday.  The Timberwolves are 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

20* Oregon State/Houston Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall with 12 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs in the Round of 32.  Then they led basically the entire way and upset Loyola-Chicago 65-58 as 7-point dogs.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8 points against Houston in the Elite 8.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Elite 8 unlike Oregon State.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here.  This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.  And I like the matchup as it is expected to be a low-scoring game as both teams are great defensively.  The total is only 129 for this game, and low-scoring games definitely favor the underdog.  This game will play right into the Beavers' hands.

Oregon State is 16-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Monday.

15* Oregon/USC Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +2.5

The Oregon Ducks have saved their best basketball of the season for last, which always seems to be the case under Dana Altman.  They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games with their last six wins coming by 10 points or more, including their 95-80 throttling of Iowa last round.

The Ducks are definitely fresh after getting a bye into the Round of 32 by not having to play VCU.  And I just trust Dana Altman as a head coach more than Andy Enfield.  Altman is 16-4 ATS as the coach of Oregon in NCAA Tournament games.  The Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.

The USC Trojans are getting too much respect now after beating Drake and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the tournament.  Drake barely deserved to be there, and Kansas was coming off a COVID pause that forced them out of the Big 12 Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for the Trojans, and it's actually a step down in class for the Ducks after facing Iowa.  Roll with Oregon Sunday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 26-6 SU this season and are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall after blasting Maryland 96-77 as 6-point favorites in the Round of 32.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against UCLA.

Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35.5% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.7 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.8% shooting as a team and 28.9% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  They face a UCLA team that struggles to defense the 3-pointer, giving up 21 attempts per game at a 34.2% clip.  And it's a good matchup for the Crimson Tide because they like to run teams from the 3-point line, and UCLA shoots the 3-pointer at a 37.4% clip this season.

UCLA is getting too much respect here after beating three mediocre teams in five days to make the Sweet 16.  They rallied from 14 down to beat Michigan State in OT, beat a BYU team that was way overseeded as a No. 6 seed, and crushed an Abilene Christian team that was only in the Round of 32 because Texas played its worst game of the season with 23 turnovers to hand them the game.  This is a huge step up in class for UCLA based on what they have faced thus far in the NCAA Tournament.  Remember, the Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four gams of the season against Pac-12 opponents.

UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sweet 16 games.  Alabama is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Bruins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Oats is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team forced 8 or fewer turnovers as a head coach.  Bet Alabama Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors ML -113

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors right now.  They are 1-10 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But the majority of those games came without three of their best players in Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Onunoby who combine to average 54.5 points per game.

Those three are back now and the Raptors have been much more competitive against some very good competition.  They have also put the trade rumors behind them that distracted them before the deadline.  They beat the Nuggets by 24 two games ago before losing a tough one by 4 points to the Suns last time out.

The Blazers come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games overall.  Their last win came by just 7 points over a depleted Orlando Magic team that just traded everyone away.  Now the Blazers will be playing their 10th game in 16 days here and are a tired team.  Star PG Damian Lillard is questionable tonight with a knee injury as well.

Plays against road teams (Portland) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Toronto also wants revenge from a 1-point loss in Portland in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA TOTAL OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 228.5

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  This is a double-header between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  They just played yesterday and now they will play again today.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Jazz won 117-114 last night for 231 combined points.  It was a frantic 4th quarter with the Grizzlies making a big comeback that led to a big 4th quarter points-wise.  Now we just need one less 3-pointer to cash this UNDER 228.5, which shouldn't be a problem considering both teams will be playing on tired legs and the pace should be much slower because of it.

Memphis is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games after trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Utah is 49-20 UNDER In its last 69 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Grizzlies last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Grizzlies last 16 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

The Boston Celtics are in a terrible spot tonight.  Asking them to go on the road and beat the Oklahoma City by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much given the difficulty of the spot for them.

The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They will be playing their fourth straight road game as well, so there has been a lot of travel involved.  And it will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Celtics here.  

It's no wonder the Celtics have gone just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall given how tired they are.  And now they find themselves in a letdown spot off a shocking upset of the Bucks last night.  There's no way they'll be able to get up emotionally for the Thunder like they were against the Bucks last night.

Oklahoma City has been grossly undervalued all season, especially of late.  They have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They have played many of those games without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they will be without him again, which is why this line is so high.  But it's a great spot for the Thunder as they come in on two days' rest, so they will be able to adjust without him.

The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.  Boston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  The Celtics are 3-11 ATS as road favorites this season.  Oklahoma City is 51-33 ATS in its last 84 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +10.5

I cashed in the Grizzlies last night as 10-point underdogs against the Utah Jazz in their 114-117 loss.  I'm certainly back on them again today as they will be the team out for revenge, and they already proved they could hang with the Jazz.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs again here.

The Jazz remain overvalued here due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 33-11.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after two straight blowout wins over the Bulls by 25 and Nets by 30 coming into this double-header with Memphis.  But both of those teams were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and were short-handed.

This double-header against the Grizzlies is clearly a step up in class for the Jazz.  The Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season right now due to being fully healthy.  Memphis had won three straight prior to yesterday and is now 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Yet, the Grizzlies continue to get zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit dogs again.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - after a home games where both teams scored 100 or more points, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.

Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when its opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks +9.5

The New York Knicks have been grossly undervalued all season, especially of late.  They are 23-2 SU & 26-18-1 ATS this season, including 8-5 SU & 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And each of their last three losses all came by 5 points or fewer.

Their last blowout loss came at Milwaukee 101-134 on March 11th, and now they will be looking to get revenge from that defeat.  Given the tough spot for the Bucks tonight, I like the Knicks' chances of staying within single-digits or possibly pulling off the upset to cover this spread in the rematch.

The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 114-122 to the Celtics last night.  And it's a great time to sell high on the Bucks, who have gone 13-2 SU in their last 15 games overall and are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers because of it.  And keep in mind the Knicks did beat the Bucks 130-110 as 13-point dogs in their first meeting this season.

New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more.  Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Saturday games.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Timberwolves UNDER 227.5

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  This is a double-header between the Rockets and Timberwolves.  They just played yesterday and they will play again today.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Timberwolves won 107-101 last night for just 208 combined points.  Now the books have come back with a 227.5-point total for the rematch, which is clearly too high.  The Rockets even made 17 3-pointers last night and still only scored 101 points.

Offense has been a problem for the Rockets all season as they rank just 29th in offensive efficiency at 102.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves haven't been much better, ranking 26th at 104.3 points per 100 possessions.  And with both teams playing on tired legs, this game should be played at an even slower pace than it was yesterday.

Houston is 11-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Rockets are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The UNDER is 40-14-1 in Rockets last 55 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Timberwolves last seven games as favorites.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oral Roberts/Arkansas Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Oral Roberts +11.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  They have proceeded to be the cinderella of the NCAA Tournament, upsetting Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs and upsetting Florida 81-78 as 9-point dogs.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 11 games overall and topped 80 points eight times.  They have averaged 84 points per game in their last 11 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of those upset wins over Ohio State and Florida.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.

Having already seen Arkansas once this season is a big advantage for Oral Roberts.  And it's worth noting the Golden Eagles actually led the Razorbacks by 10 points at halftime before getting outscored by 21 after intermission.  That was a true road game for the Golden Eagles and they only lost by 11.  They should be able to stay within 11.5 points in the rematch on a neutral this time around.

Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet Oral Roberts Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Loyola-Chicago Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 11 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs last round.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 6.5 points against Loyola-Chicago.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Loyola-Chicago goes from being a 7-point underdog to Illinois to a 6.5-point favorite against Oregon State.   That's a 13.5-point adjustment and it's too much.  Of course the Ramblers want to win this game too.  But coming off such a huge upset victory against Illinois to bounce the first #1 seed from the tournament is such an emotional high.

It's going to be hard for them to get up for Oregon State as much as they were up for Illinois, an in-state opponent where they were looked at as the little brother.  They may very well win this game too, but asking them to win by 7 points or more to beat us is asking a lot.

Oregon State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 13-0 ATS in its last 13 games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +4

Life without Lebron James and Anthony Davis has been hard for the Lakers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games without them while losing those four games by an average of 11.8 points per game.

It's not going to get any easier tonight as now the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days while being short-handed.  Kyle Kuzma played over 41 minutes, Dennis Schroeder over 38, Harrell over 32 and Caldwell-Pop over 30 for the Lakers in last night's 101-109 loss to the 76ers.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.

There's no way the Lakers should be 4-point favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight given the tough spot for them.  This is a Cleveland team that has been a lot more competitive in recent weeks in going 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  This is definitely a game they can win outright as they have recent upset wins over the Hawks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Bulls during this stretch.  They even upset the Bulls without Collin Sexton, and there's a chance he returns tonight as he is listed as questionable.

Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +10

The Utah Jazz are overvalued right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 32-11.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially off two straight blowout wins over the Bulls by 25 and the Nets by 30.  But both of those teams were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and both were short-handed.

Now the Jazz take a step up in class here against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been playing some of their best basketball of the season now that they are finally healthy.  Indeed, the Grizzlies have won three straight games and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Yet, they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit underdogs.

The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Memphis is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when its opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.  Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Mavericks OVER 228

The Dallas Mavericks are a great OVER team because they rank 9th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  Indiana plays at a fast pace (9th) and has been a much-improved offensive team since getting some guys back healthy.  The result should be a shoot tonight between these two that sees 230-plus combined points.

The Mavericks have scored 128, 132 and 119 points in their last three games overall.  They should hang a big number on a Pacers defense that has allowed 110 or more points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  But the Pacers have picked it up offensively in scoring 109 or more points in five straight while averaging 118.0 points per game during this stretch.  Getting Caris LeVert healthy has made a big difference for them.

These teams just played earlier this year with the Mavericks winning 124-112 for 236 combined points.  The Pacers are 8-0 OVER when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Indiana is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games when revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points.  The OVER is 10-1 in Pacers last 11 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 road games.  The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Dallas.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Pelicans UNDER 232

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  The Nuggets and Pelicans just played on Sunday with the Pelicans winning 113-108 for 221 combined points.  Now they face each other five days later on Friday.  Familiarity favors UNDER and defense.

It's worth noting that both the Pelicans and Nuggets shot well in that game as the Nuggets shot 50% while the Pelicans shot 48.2%.  So it was played at a snail's pace, and that should be the case again here in the rematch.

These teams just match up well for UNDERS, clearly.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  They have combined for 232 or fewer points in all six meetings and an average of just 219.5 points per game, which is 12.5 points per game less than this 232-point total.  So there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Nuggets last five road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pelicans last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors.  They have gone just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  But they were missing three of their best players during most of that run, and they are back now in VanVleet, Siakam and Powell.  And now they have the trade deadline behind them so there shouldn't be any more distractions.

The Raptors came out and made a statement to management and ended their nine-game losing streak on Wednesday with an emphatic 135-111 win over the Denver Nuggets.  Now I look for them to build off that win and upset the Phoenix Suns tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after overachieving in the first half of the season with the second-best record in the Western Conference at 29-14.  But they have come back down to reality of late with recent upset losses to the Pacers as 7-point favorites, the Timberwolves as 11-point favorites and the Magic as 9.5-point favorites.

Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last seven meetings with Phoenix.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games playing on zero rest.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 235

This is one of my favorite spots to back an UNDER.  It's a double-header between the Celtics and Bucks tonight.  They just played each other on Wednesday, and now they are rematching in Milwaukee on Friday.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

Both teams shot very well in that first meeting and it still saw just 240 combined points.  And that total was set at 231 while this one has been set at 235, so we are getting some extra value.  Milwaukee shot 50% for the game and 17-of-37 (45.9%) from 3-point range.  Boston shot 47.9% for the game and 19-of-47 (40.4%) from 3-point range.  It's going to be hard to see them combining for 36 made 3-pointers again considering they average 28 combined per game on the season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Milwaukee) - after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games against an opponent that scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 174-114 (60.4%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets are getting way too much respect from the books here of late after a recent stretch in which they went 14-1 SU.  But they aren't that team any more with all the injuries, and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Nets are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in the last six contests and their 3rd game in 4 days after a trip to Portland and Salt Lake City on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Now they have to make the trek to Detroit and won't have either Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, plus they could be without James Harden, who is questionable.  We saw how poor they played without those three in their 30-point loss at Utah.

The trade deadline is over and the Pistons can refocus.  They also get Diallo (11.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) back from injury tonight.  The Pistons have been undervalued for a few weeks now as they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They've lost just twice by more than 5 points in that seven-game stretch.  Detroit wants revenge from a 95-100 loss at Brooklyn on March 13th less than two weeks ago.  

They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, and the Pistons are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games when playing their 2nd game in 5 days.  Detroit is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game so they have been good at playing up to their level of competition.  They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above. 600 as well.  The Nets have been the opposite, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -4

I really believe the Memphis Tigers could have made a run in the NCAA Tournament with how well they played down the stretch had they gotten in.  Now they are taking their frustration out on NIT opponents and looking to make a statement.  That showed in their 71-60 win over Dayton in their first-round game.

Memphis is now 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The three losses all came by 3 points or less with two of them to Houston, which is in the Sweet 16.  They lost on a buzzer-beater 64-67 at Houston and lost in the AAC Tournament 74-76 to the Cougars.  Each of their 11 wins during this stretch have come by 4 points or more.

It has been a bad look for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament with San Diego State getting blown out by Syracuse and Utah State getting blown out by Texas Tech.  Boise State went 0-4 SU in its final four games of the season with losses to SDSU (twice), Fresno State and Nevada.  Then they barely beat SMU 85-84 in the opening round of the NIT, but that is a short-handed SMU team that was coming off a long COVID pause and rusty.  This will be a much stiffer test for the Broncos tonight.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Memphis Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Spurs UNDER 223.5

This is a double-header between the Spurs and Clippers tonight.  They just played last night with the Clippers winning 134-101.  Now they play again tonight, and I always look to back the UNDER in this spot because familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

Look for this game to be played at a snail's pace tonight with both of these teams playing on tired legs, which helps the UNDER.  And don't expect the Clippers to shoot 55.7% from the floor and 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range again.  The Clippers rank 27th in the NBA in pace while the Spurs are 15th.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (San Antonio) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that's off a road win by 20 points or more are 44-16 (73.3%) since 1996.

The Spurs are 8-1 UNDER when revenging a same-season loss this season.  We are seeing just 216.8 combined points per game on average in this spot.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be out for revenge from a 101-134 home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  The Clippers shot 55.7% as a team and 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

The blowout nature of the loss allowed the Spurs to rest their starters with eight minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Look for them to regroup here, plus they are expected to get both Lonnie Walker IV (11.5 PPG) and Rudy Gay (10.9 PPG) back in the lineup tonight after both sat out last night.

The Clippers will be without Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka again tonight.  Behind short-handed doesn't help them in this back-to-back spot.  Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played over 32 minutes late night.  Don't be surprised if one or both sits this game and we see a big line adjustment.

The Spurs are 14-2 ATS when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by nearly 10 points per game on average in this spot.  San Antonio is 63-32 ATS in its last 95 games when revenging any loss.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three road wins and only a 7-point road loss to the Bucks as 11.5-point dogs on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  

They came back and lost by 3 to the Hornets in their first game back home following a five-game road trip, which is always a tough spot for NBA teams.  Now they should be refocused coming off two straight losses and put their best foot forward here against the Clippers, which should be good enough to cover this 6-point spread.

The Clippers are coming off two straight home wins over the Hornets and Hawks, and I think this is a great time to step in front of them now that they are back on the road.  The Clippers are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  They will be without Patrick Beverly tonight and likely without Serge Ibaka as well.

The Spurs are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Clippers with only one loss by more than 3 points.  They upset the Clippers 116-113 as 7.5-point road dogs in their lone meeting this season.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  San Antonio is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games after two or more consecutive losses.  Roll with the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Magic UNDER 215

Both the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic will be playing the 2nd of back-to-backs tonight.  I think the tired legs will affect their shooting more than anything, and it will also result in this game being played at a snail's pace.

The Magic are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 209 or fewer points in five of those.  The only exception came against the Brooklyn Nets, who play at a fast pace and are the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Suns last three games overall with combined scores of 214, 205 and 210 points.  These teams played on February 14th with the Suns winning 109-90 for 199 combined points.  They combined for just 192 points in their previous meeting as well.

The Suns rank 28th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game.  They like to slow it down, and so do the Magic, who are 19th in pace at 100.6 possessions per game.  A big reason the Suns are so good this season is because they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They will lock down the short-handed Magic, who rank 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

The UNDER is 21-7 in Magic last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 5-0 UNDER In its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +1

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a win Wednesday.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after losing nine straight games coming into this game with the Denver Nuggets.  But five of their last six losses have come on the road.

In their only home game during this stretch, they blew a 5-point lead with just over a minute to play against the Jazz and lost by 3 but still covered.  Now they are back home and just recently got three key players back from injury or COVID.  Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are all back healthy now.  Those three combine to average nearly 54 points per game, so it's no wonder they struggled without them.

Now the Raptors face a Nuggets team that will be in a very tough spot Wednesday.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a game in Orlando on Tuesday.  They will also be playing their 8th game in 13 days since returning from the All-Star Break.  Jokic played 36 minutes, Murray 37, Barton 36 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the motivated, rested Raptors tonight.

Denver is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  They always have a way of playing to their competition.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record, so they have the same tendency.  Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Nuggets are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Nick Nurse is 34-17 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six ATS as the coach of Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just got CJ McCollum back in the lineup and are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Blazers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to the Suns, and then the Timberwolves and Mavericks in double-headers after beating them the game before, so they were clearly letdown spots.

Now the Blazers will certainly be refocused here with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town.  That's especially the case after their worst loss of the season by 40 points to the Mavericks last time out.  They had just beaten the Mavericks 125-119 two games prior, and they were probably looking ahead to this game against the Nets.

Everyone is looking ahead to this Nets team that has gone 15-2 SU in their last 17 games overall.  So it's a good time to 'sell high' on them, and I've been doing it with success of late as the Nets have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they are going to not only be without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving tonight, but James Harden is also listed as questionable.  Even if Harden plays they don't have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers.

Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +2

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight games coming in, including two by 4 points or fewer.  They had gone 11-1 SU in their previous 12 games prior to this three-game skid.  And I think it's now time to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Phoenix Suns knowing they will be max motivated tonight.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns after going 20-5 SU & 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  But the Suns are coming off a very weak schedule with their last five games all coming at home against the Pacers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves (twice) and Lakers (without Lebron and Davis).  They even lost to the Timberwolves as 11-point favorites and the Pacers as 7-point favorites.

Miami simply owns Phoenix, going 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Heat are also 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Miami is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall.  With all the injuries they've had, it's no surprise they are on this run.  But they just recently got Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon back, and those two alongside Vucevic give them a chance to beat anyone in the NBA.

The return of these two has coincided with the Magic being a lot more competitive of late.  They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with a 5-point loss to the Heat as 7.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss to the Knicks as 4.5-point dogs, and an outright win by 8 over the Nets as 10.5-point dogs.  They went on to have a letdown against the Celtics in their next game after beating the Nets.  They'll be refocused tonight with the Nuggets coming to town.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They were fortunate to beat the Bulls twice in games that went down to the wire.  They also only beat the Grizzlies by 1.  And they lost outright to the Pelicans last time out.  They are still without Monte Morris and Gary Harris right now and should not be favored by 7.5 on the road against the Magic tonight.

The Nuggets are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games.  Denver is 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  Take the Magic Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Memphis Grizzlies are finally healthy and it's starting to show.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight against the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They are expected to be without starting PG Kemba Walker due to rest and could be without Tristan Thompson as well.

The Celtics aren't playing well as it is, going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins came against Houston, which is now 0-20 SU in its last 20 games, and Orlando, which was in a letdown spot off an upset win over the Nets.  The Magic are also 1-10 SU in their last 11 games.  The Celtics lost to the Nets by 11, the Jazz by 8, were upset by the Cavs by 7 as 7.5-point favorites and upset by the Kings by 11 as 7-point favorites in their four losses during this stretch.

Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest.  The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  The Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* Maryland/Alabama CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 25-6 SU this season and are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against Maryland.

I believe Maryland is one of the worst teams left in the NCAA Tournament.  They are just 17-13 this season and had recent upset losses to both Penn State and Northwestern, who of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They somehow shot 51.2% and held UConn to 32.3% shooting last round, which was an aberration and won't happen again.

Maryland is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3-pointer.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.2 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.4% shooting as a team and 28.5% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  Maryland is a terrible offensive team and won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard in this one.

Maryland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Terrapins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games coming in this season.  Bet Alabama Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

The Minnesota Timberwolves have come out of the All-Star Break a rejuvenated team.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall against all playoff contenders.  They beat the Pelicans by 30 as 8-point dogs, the Blazers by 2 as 5.5-point dogs and the Suns by 4 as 11-point dogs.

Now the Timberwolves come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest.  They finally take on a non-playoff contender here in the Thunder, who they should handle.  The Thunder are short-handed right now missing Darius Bazley (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and George Hill (11.8 PPG).  They could be without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5 PPG, 6.0 APG) along with Al Horford (14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG), who are both questionable.  That's four of their top five scorers.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford both sat out Sunday's 114-112 win over Houston.  But that's a Rockets team that is now 0-20 SU in its last 20 games overall and the worst team in the NBA.  Now the Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, and whether or not those two return this is still a very difficult situation for them playing a Timberwolves team that is on two days' rest.  The Thunder are at a huge disadvantage here.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Minnesota) - an up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots per game against an opponent that has gone five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Minnesota plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA and will definitely test Oklahoma City's tired legs.  The Thunder are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on zero rest.  The Timberwolves are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with OKC.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are starting to play a lot better basketball here of late.  They are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall with three losses by 6 points or fewer.  The only games they were blown out were on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia and at Atlanta, which has won eight straight games.

Sacramento now comes in rested after having yesterday off.  They take a big step down in competition here against Cleveland, which will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset win over the Raptors last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Cavaliers, who are already short-handed right now due to all their injuries.  They won't have much left in the tank here for the Kings, who play at a frantic pace and will test those tired legs more than most teams would.

The Kings are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cavaliers, winning by 13, 19 and 14 points.  They are also 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland.  Cleveland is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 3-15 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season, losing by an average of 14.0 points per game in this spot.  Take the Kings Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on LSU +5

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with two of their wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The other was in the Round of 64 against Texas Southern, but I cashed in Texas Southern +26.5 easily as they only lost by 16 to Michigan.  I'll gladly fade the Wolverines again for a number of the same reasons.

The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Now they take a big step up in competition against LSU, which unlike Michigan, is peaking at the right time.  The Tigers are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 15 as 15-point favorites, Missouri by 6 as 3.5-point road dogs, Ole Miss by 3 as 1-point favorites, Arkansas by 7 as 3.5-point favorites and St. Bonaventure by 15 as 2-point favorites.  

Their lone loss came 79-80 to Alabama as 6-point dogs in the SEC Championship Game only after they missed a handful of opportunities to win it just before the buzzer.  And I hold Alabama in very high regard.  If they can nearly beat Alabama, they can certainly beat a Michigan team that's without Livers.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 6-0 ATS in its six games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with LSU Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +5.5

The Ohio Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Then Ohio came out and upset Virginia 62-58 as 6.5-point dogs in the Round of 64.  Now I think they take a step down in competition here against Creighton and are once again underdogs of 5.5 points.  This is a game the Bobcats can certainly win outright, and those games against both Virginia and Illinois prove they can hang with and beat anyone.

Creighton was fortunate to survive in a 63-62 win as 7.5-point favorites over UC-Santa Barbara in the Round of 64.  The Bluejays are now 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall and dealing with the aftermath of the Greg McDermott racist comments.  They lost by 25 to Georgetown, by 12 to Villanova and by 8 to Xavier.  Two of their wins came against lowly Butler, another was a 3-point win over UConn and then that 1-point win over UCSB.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to be laying 5.5 points to a team that is playing as well as Ohio is.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Bluejays are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Take Ohio Monday.

20* Oregon/Iowa CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +5.5

Once Oregon got past all the COVID problems they really flashed their potential down the stretch this season.  They went 11-2 SU in their final 13 games this season with each of their last five victories coming by double-digits.  This late-season should come as no surprise as Oregon head coach Dana Altman is one of the best in the country and always has his teams playing their best basketball late in the season.  

Altman is 15-4 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in first round games.  His teams have won by 18.5 points per game on average in the first round.  Well, the Ducks didn't have to play a first-round game because it got canceled due to COVID issues for VCU.  That means the Ducks will be the fresher, more prepared team here against Iowa.

Iowa is about as vulnerable a Top 2 seed as there is in the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they don't defend very well, and they are particularly poor at defending the 3-pointer, ranking outside the Top 200 in that department.  That's bad news considering they will be up against one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country in Oregon that shoots it at a 37.9% clip.  

Oregon also turns it over just 11 times per game and will get great shots almost every time down the floor.  Iowa shot 53.7% and held Grand Canyon to 42.9% yet still failed to cover in a 12-point win as 13.5-point favorites.  Oregon will close the gap in that department and has a great shot to win this game outright.

The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  The Ducks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oregon Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -121

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 119-125 road loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday.  Now they get to face the Blazers again here just two days later and will be the more motivated team.  I think that will be enough to push them over the top and get a win here.

The Mavericks were just in this situation right before this series.  They had a double-headed with the Clippers.  After losing the first meeting 99-109, they came back two days later and crushed the Clippers 105-89.  And now after being a 2.5-point favorite in that first meeting with the Blazers, they are just 1.5-point favorites in the rematch.  I'm taking them on the money line though and the price is even better than it was in that first meeting.

It's double-revenge this season for the Mavericks as well after losing their other previous meeting with the Blazers by 3 points at home.  It's also triple-revenge if we go back to the end of last season as well.  Either way, that motivation will be on their side here, and I think the Blazers relax a little after winning three straight games overall coming in.

Not to mention, the Mavericks blew a 5-point lead entering the 4th quarter on Friday.  The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* Oregon State/Oklahoma State CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall with 10 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset as 8.5-point dogs to Tennessee in the opening round, and now they are being undervalued once again as 6.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Oklahoma State found itself in a dog fight with a bad Liberty team.  The Cowboys were very fortunate to cover in a 69-60 win as 7-point favorites.  They trailed by 3 at halftime and didn't finally put the game away until the closing minute.  This is a big step up in competition here against Oregon State.  And they are facing a Beavers team playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the 3-pointer at better than a 44% clip over their last handful of games.

The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  Take Oregon State Sunday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oral Roberts +8.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  Then they upset Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs.  I was on them in that game and I'm back on them today against Florida.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Gators.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 10 games overall and topped 80 points seven times.  They have averaged 84.3 points per game in their last 10 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of that upset win over Ohio State.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those five teams, they can certainly hang with Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.  They trailed basically the entire way against Virginia Tech in their NCAA Tournament opener and were fortunate to win that game in OT.

Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oral Roberts Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors after going 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they just got VanVleet, Siakam and Onunoby back from COVID and nearly upset the Jazz in a 112-115 loss as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are highly motivated to end this skid and should be able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers by double-digits tonight.

The Cavaliers are 1-5 SU in their last five games overall with three losses coming by 15 points or more to the Pelicans by 34, the Hawks by 18 and the Heat by 15.  While the Raptors are finally fully healthy, the Cavaliers are missing four or five key players right now.  That's why they have struggled so much of late to even be competitive.

The Raptors are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Cavaliers with five of those wins coming by double-digits.  Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games playing on one days' rest.  Cleveland is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 21-45-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +8.5

It's definitely a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets after going 14-2 SU in their last 16 games overall.  That has been evident here of late as they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with narrow victories over the Knicks, Pistons and Pacers and an outright loss to the Magic as double-digit dogs.

Now I'll gladly take the 8.5-points here with the Washington Wizards.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after going 1-5 SU in their last six games overall.  But that lone victory came last time out in an upset win over the Jazz as 11-point dogs.  And now they've had two days' rest and will be fresh and ready to go against the Nets tonight.

The Wizards are already 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Nets this season, winning outright as 7-point road dogs and 5.5-point home dogs.  So there's no reason they should be 8.5-point dogs here, especially since they are healthier now than they were in those two previous meetings.  And Kevin Durant played in each of those first two meetings, but they are without him now.

The Wizards are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* Syracuse/WVU Round of 32 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +4.5

The Syracuse Orange are playing with a chip on their shoulder because they had a ton of naysayers that stated they shouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But the fact of the matter is they earned their spot, and they have saved their best basketball for last which always seems to be the case with head coach Jim Boeheim.  They have also done their best work in the NCAA Tournament as a double-digit seed, making recent Final Four and Sweet 16 runs the last two times it happened.

Syracuse is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to Virginia on a last-second 3-pointer in the ACC Tournament as a 5.5-point dogs.  They beat UNC by 2, Clemson by 10, NC State by 21 and then San Diego State by 16.  This game should be lined closer to a PK with the way Syracuse is playing right now.

West Virginia was in a close game with Morehead State before finally pulling away late.   The Mountaineers allowed 52% shooting and they just have a way of losing closing games this season with four recent losses all by 5 points or fewer.  They are just tough to trust late in games against quality competition because they take such poor shots.  And I like backing Syracuse in tournament situations where teams only have one day or less to get ready for them.  Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone takes time to prepare for.

Syracuse is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a win by 15 points or more.  The Orange are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.  I expect that huge chip on their shoulder to lead to another upset victory here over the Mountaineers.  Roll with Syracuse Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -8

If you listened to my podcast this week you know I'm high on Texas to make a Final Four Run playing in the easiest region, which is the East.  I'm high on them for a number of reasons, and I'm certainly laying the points with them in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against Abilene Christian Saturday.

The Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five straight games coming in and only had to win two games in the Big 12 Tournament to win it all.  That's because their semifinal game against Kansas got canceled.  So they should still be pretty fresh.  They beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament.

The guard trio of Jones, Ramey and Coleman II are elite and all average 12.4 PPG or more.  They all shoot better than 80% from the free throw line as well.  Another guard in Febres has only played in their last 10 games and is improving with each game, scoring in double figures in two of his last four games.

Texas also has a pair of elite post players in Jerricho Sims and Kai Jones.  Sims averaged 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the Big 12 Tournament and is an athletic freak who does everything for this game.  Jones added 11.5 points and 6.0 boards in the tournament and even shoots 36.7% from 3-point range on the season.  There's just no weaknesses with this team.

Abilene Christian is one of the shortest teams in the country.  They are going to have a hard time getting rebounds against Texas, which is one of the taller teams in the country.  The Longhorns are +5 in rebounding margin this season due to their size inside.  They defend at an elite level, holding opponents to 41.3% shooting this season.  

Abilene Christian played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their only two difficult games coming in a 13-point loss to Arkansas and a 7-point loss to Texas Tech in which the Red Raiders had an off shooting night at 27.9%, yet still found a way to win that game.  Abilene played the 330th-ranked schedule in the country, while Texas played the 33rd-ranked schedule.

Texas went 11-2 SU in all road/neutral games this season while playing its best basketball away from home.  The Longhorns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win.  Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive wins.  The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies took the Golden State Warriors lightly yesterday because they were without Stephen Curry.  They paid for it in a 103-116 upset loss as 7-point favorites.  They won't make the same mistake again in the rematch Saturday.

Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Grizzlies, who will be the more motivated team here and who we are getting at a better number than yesterday.  Oddsmakers have adjusted this line down from -7 to -5.5 in favor of the Grizzlies.  I love the value here knowing we are getting the more motivated team.

The Warriors are likely to be without Curry (29.0 PPG), Wiseman (11.8 PPG, and Paschall (9.5 PPG) again tonight.  So the 2nd of a back-to-back hurts them more knowing they are already short-handed, while the Grizzlies are fully healthy and should have all hands on deck.  Andrew Wiggins isn't scoring 40 points and going 14-of-24 from the field and 6-of-11 from 3-point range again.  The Grizzlies will make the proper adjustments to stop him, and the rest of this Warriors roster isn't good enough to beat them.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on zero rest.  Golden State is 11-23-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Warriors UNDER 221.5

As the Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy, they have become a great UNDER team in recent weeks.  They are filled with elite defenders when healthy, which is a big reason they are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  The JA Morant effect always has their totals inflated.

The Warriors have also been a great UNDER bet of late.  They are 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  Now they are definitely an UNDER team tonight as they are likely to be without Steph Curry (29.0 PPG) once again as he is listed as doubtful.  They will also be without James Wiseman (11.8 PPG) and Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG).

I cashed in the UNDER 224 between the Grizzlies and Warriors last night in a game that saw just 219 combined points after a frantic finish in the 4th quarter.  That total closed at 221, and I expect this one to be on the move as well and finish lower than 221.5.  I love taking UNDERS in these double-header situation where the same two teams face each other in back-to-back games.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Warriors have combined for 224 or fewer points in 10 of their last 12 meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 9-3 in those 12 meetings.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Warriors last nine road games.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 29-9 in Grizzlies last 38 home games, including 11-2 in Grizzlies last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +7.5

Virginia got popped with COVID and was forced out of the ACC Tournament.  The Cavaliers haven't been able to practice leading up to the NCAA Tournament, so there's no doubt they are going to be rusty.  They are primed to get upset by Ohio here Saturday.

The Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Virginia plays the type of style that lets teams hang around even if they weren't in a tough situation on here with COVID.  They slow it down to a snails' pace always and rely on their defense to win games.  Well, Ohio averages 80.9 points per game and shoots 48.9% as a team.  They will get plenty of points to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upsets.

The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Ohio is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 postseason tournament games.  The Cavaliers are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 first-round tournament games.  Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Take Ohio Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Southern +26.5

Texas Southern (17-8) should not be catching 26.5 points against Michigan in the Round of 64.  The Tigers have gone 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They can hang with the Wolverines based off of what we've seen from them in the non-conference.

The Tigers only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They really weren't overmatched in any of those games, and they won't be overmatched enough by Michigan to lose this game by 27-plus, which is what it's going to take for the Wolverines to cover this number.

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Texas Southern is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Texas Southern Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Colorado CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown +6.5

Georgetown has been grossly undervalued all season as evidenced by their 16-9 ATS record.  They saved their best basketball for last, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to UConn (twice).

The Hoyas won four straight games outright as underdogs in the Big East Tournament, outscoring their opponents by a combined 53 points in the process.  They won by 19 over Marquette, by 1 over Villanova, by 8 over Seton Hall and then blasted Creighton by 25 in the championship game while playing their 4th game in 4 days.

I like the fact that this game will be played on Saturday instead of Friday, giving the Hoyas and extra day to recover from playing four games in four days.  And I also like the early 12:15 EST start time, which is going to be a 10:15 body clock game for Colorado as they are from the Mountain time zone.  The Buffaloes aren't used to playing games this early, but the Hoyas are as they are from the East Coast.

The Hoyas are an elite defensive team as they held opponents to 56.5 points per game in the Big East Tournament.  They had four different players average double figures scoring in the tournament, led by Blair and his 15.3 PPG plus Wahab and his 14.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG inside. 

I usually look to fade the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament because they are the weakest of the Power conferences.  Colorado had all three games in its Pac-12 Tournament decided by 3 points or less.  They only beat Cal by 3 as 14-point favorites.  They beat USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  And they lost outright to Oregon State by 2 as 8.5-point favorites in the Championship Game and trailed the entire way.

I just don't like much about this Colorado team outside PG Wright IV and C Battey, who has a hard time staying out of foul trouble.  They just rely too much on those two players to get their production, so they are pretty easy to stop.  The Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as favorites.  Colorado is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament Games.  They have been terrible away from Colorado through the years.  The Hoyas come in with a ton of confidence from winning the Big East Tournament and that momentum carries over here with a likely upset of the Buffaloes in the opening round.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +5.5

The Toronto Raptors have been playing without Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for a couple weeks now.  That's 54 points per game of production they have been missing.  It's not wonder they have gone just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.

But all three are back now, and it's time to 'buy low' on this team as 5.5-point home underdogs to the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Raptors will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They will be playing with a sense of urgency to try and end their six-game losing streak, and I think they have a great shot to win this game outright, let alone cover the 5.5-point spread.

The Jazz have come back down to the reality of late in going 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only three wins have come against the Magic, Rockets and Celtics.  They just lost outright to the Wizards as double-digit favorites last night.  All five starters played more than 30 minutes in trying to come back to win that game, so they will now be on tired legs playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.

The Jazz are 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss.  The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Jazz, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games fater trailing in its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime.  Toronto is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games coming in.  Roll with the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 224

As the Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy, they have become a great UNDER team in recent weeks.  They are filled with elite defenders when healthy, which is a big reason they are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  The JA Morant effect always has their totals inflated.

The Warriors have also been a great UNDER bet of late since getting their big men in Wiseman and Looney back healthy.  The Warriors are 8-3 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Now they are definitely an UNDER team tonight as they are likely to be without both Steph Curry (29.0 PPG) and Kelly Oubre Jr (15.2 PPG), which are two of their top three scorers.  Both are listed as doubtful, and they will be without their fifth-leading scorer in Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG) as well.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 224, 212 and 209 points.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Warriors have combined for 224 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 8-3 in those 11 meetings.  There's a ton of value with the UNDER 224 tonight.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last eight road games.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 28-9 in Grizzlies last 37 home games, including 10-2 in Grizzlies last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland State +20.5

The Cleveland State Vikings have been undervalued all season.  They went 19-7 SU & 17-8-1 ATS this season and are once again getting zero respect from the books in the opening round.  They are 20.5-point underdogs to the Houston Cougars.  I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money.

Cleveland State has been competitive in every game this season with two exceptions.  They lost 46-101 at Ohio, but that was due to shooting 22.8% as a team.  It was a complete aberration.  They came back in their next game and only lost 61-67 as 23.5-point dogs at Ohio State to really show their potential.  The Buckeyes are a fellow No. 2 seed alongside Houston.  They also lost 49-85 at Wright State the day after upsetting Wright State as a 9.5-point underdog.  It was a letdown spot for them, and a revenge spot for Wright State as they shot just 27.9% in that game.

Houston is way overvalued coming into the NCAA Tournament after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes 38 and 37-point victories over Cincinnati.  The other covers came against Western Kentucky, South Florida and Tulane.  The two non-covers were close wins against Memphis by 3 and 2 points.  So they haven't faced a single NCAA Tournament team in their last seven games.  The last one they faced they lost outright at Wichita State as 7.5-point favorites.  They only faved two NCAA Tournament teams all season in Wichita State and Texas Tech, so they padded their record against a soft schedule as the AAC was way down this season.

Dennis Gates is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Cleveland State.  The Vikings are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Cleveland State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland State Friday.

20* Oregon State/Tennessee CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall with nine outright victories as underdogs.  They are being undervalued once again here as 8-point dogs in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Tennessee faded a little down the stretch in going 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS in their final nine games.  I just don't think this team is good enough to be laying this kind of number against a team playing as well as Oregon State.  And I just don't trust head coach Rick Barnes, who is 7-17-1 ATS in his last 25 NCAA Tournament games and failed time and time again dating back to his time at Texas in this spot.

The Beavers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  The Beavers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  Take Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +16.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like Ohio State, which is vulnerable defensively.  The Golden Eagles scored 75 or more points in each of their final nine games this season and topped 80 points seven times.  They averaged 85.3 points per game in those nine games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly hang with Ohio State.

I think the Buckeyes are a little fatigued right now after playing four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament, including two overtime games.  All four games went down to the wire as they beat Minnesota by 4, beat Purdue in OT, beat Michigan by 1 and lost to Illinois in OT.  Now they have to play on Friday in the first slate of Round of 64 games.  It's going to be a tall task to ask them to beat Oral Roberts by 17-plus points to cover this number.

Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Buckeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oral Roberts Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -8.5

This Arkansas team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their only losses came by 4 at Oklahoma State and by 7 to LSU in the SEC Tournament.  And I just love their head coach in Eric Musselman.

The 14-1 record for Colgate stands out like a sore thumb and has them overvalued.  But they played one of the easiest schedules in the country, which is the biggest reason for that record.  They played the 313th-ranked schedule.  They didn't play anyone outside the Patriot League this season, which is one of the weakest conferences in the country.

Arkansas will be by far the best team that Colgate has played this season, and it's not really even close.  Arkansas only had six losses all season and only one of those came against a team ranked outside the Top 30 in Kenpom, which was Missouri.  They beat three teams that are in the NCAA Tournament in the non-conference all by double-digits in North Texas, Oral Roberts and Abilene Christian, three teams that I believe are all better than Colgate.

Colgate has only faced five different opponents the entire season, and Army is the highest ranked team they played at KenPom and they're ranked 189th.  They lost by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn in three non-conference games last year.  

Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency this season.  Colgate didn't face a team that finished in the top 200 in offensive efficiency this season.  Arkansas ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.  Army is the best defensive team that Colgate has faced at 149th, and outside Loyola-Maryland, the Raiders didn't face another team that ranked better than 285th in defensive efficiency.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Colgate) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Arkansas Friday.

15* VA Tech/Florida CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech ML +100

This is the first game off the board Friday at 12:15 EST.  I think Virginia Tech is a sleeper in this NCAA Tournament and comes into this game with Florida way undervalued.  That's due to the three-week COVID pause late in the season that had everyone forget about how good of a team the Hokies were before the pause.

They went 14-4 before the pause.  They have gone just 1-2 since returning from it with the losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the two teams that are arguably playing the best of anyone in the AC right now.  And they beat Wake Forest by 38 points in between those defeats.  I think having three games under their belts since the pause will have taken the rust away.  And I just think they are a much better team than Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.

Florida struggles to get good shots on offense and relies and creating turnovers and getting out in transition.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Gators.  Virginia Tech is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, committing just 12 turnovers per game.  I also like that the Hokies are the 4th-best team in the country at defending the paint.  They only allow 41.9% shooting from the field on the season.

The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Friday games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  Roll with Virginia Tech Friday.

20* UCLA/Michigan State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Michigan State -1.5

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in the play-in game here with Michigan State taking on UCLA.  I'll side with the team with the positive momentum in the Spartans in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Michigan State went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its final eight games of the season to earn its way into the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.  Those latter three teams are two #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they've proven they can play with anyone.

UCLA comes into the big dance limping to the finish line.  The Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games this season, including an upset loss to Oregon State in their Pac-12 tournament opener.  And we saw UCLA lose to Ohio State in non-conference action in their lone game against a Big Ten opponent.

This game will be played in Purdue's Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, which is an advantage for the Spartans because they are used to playing there every season.  They just played there on February 16th and being used to the venue and the rims is certainly an advantage.

The Bruins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss.  The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.  UCLA is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER 239.5

Yes, I've been cashing in on Pelicans OVERS as much as anyone in the industry this season.  So yes, it pains me to take an UNDER in their game tonight.  But the situation calls for it, and the books have missed their mark with this total because of it.

I cashed in the Mavs/Clippers UNDER 227 last night in the same situation in a game that saw just 196 combined points and went way under the number.  They had just played each other two days prior.  Well, the Pelicans and Blazers played just two days ago in Portland.  I cashed in the OVER 240 in that game.  But familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and I look for this game to be way lower-scoring than that first meeting because of it.

Portland beat New Orleans 125-124 for 249 combined points two days ago.  But both teams aren't going to shoot as well tonight as they did in that game as the defenses adjust and take away their offensive strengths.  The Pelicans shot 52.3% from the field, 48.5% from 3-point range and 16-of-20 (80%) from the charity stripe in that game.  The Blazers shot 52.1% from the field, 41.9% from 3-point range and a ridiculous 31-of-31 (100%) from the free throw line.  Just a small dip in those shooting percentages from both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER 239.5 tonight.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic tonight off eight straight losses.  They have battled through injuries and continue to show up every night, which showed in their 97-102 loss as 7.5-point dogs to Miami last time out.  They also covered in an 8-point loss to the Heat a few games prior.  They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Magic have had the last three days off to rest up and get healthier.  Both Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returned to practice finally and could play tonight.  Terrance Ross is also questionable and could play.  The Magic are more than capable of beating the Knicks without these guys given how rested and ready they are, but getting them back would be an added bonus.

This is an awful spot for the Knicks.  They return home following a four-game road trip that saw them lose to Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Philadelphia.  They lost by 5 to the Nets and by 3 to the 76ers in their last two games in heartbreaking fashion.  I think they suffer a hangover from those defeats, and I always like fading teams in their first game back home from a long road trip.  Not to mention, the Knicks are far from full strength with Mitchell Robinson, Derrick Rose, Austin Rivers and Elfrid Payton out plus star rookie Immanuel Quickley is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - a cold team having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against an opponent that has lost four or five of their last six games are 45-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after a division game.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* Drake/Wichita State Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Drake +2

The Drake Bulldogs aren't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament.  They are looking to make a statement with all the naysayers out there believing they should not be in the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to upset the Wichita State Shockers in their play-in game Thursday.

Drake went 25-4 this season and had the second-most wins of any team in the country.  Two of those losses came to Loyola-Chicago, a team they also beat and is a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament.  The Bulldogs deserve to be here, and they did it despite being without two of their best players down the stretch in leading scorer and rebounder ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Roman Penn (11.2 PPG, 5.5 APG).

Well, there's good news on the horizon as head coach Darian Devries has stated that everything is on track for Hemphill to make his much-anticipated return to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament.  He has missed the last seven games.  Penn has missed the last five games and is out for the season.  But Joseph Yesufu has stopped up in a big way in Penn's absence.  He has averaged 23.7 PPG in his last six games in place of Penn.

Wichita State went 16-5 this season but isn't as good as its record would indicate.  The Shockers went just 3-7 ATS in their final 10 games this season.  They were simply fortunate in close games this season as they had 10 wins by 6 points or fewer and 12 wins by 8 points or less.  Their only four wins by double-digits came against Emporia State, Newmann, South Florida and Tulsa.  To compare, Drake has 16 wins by double-digits.

The Bulldogs are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Wichita State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Shockers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as favorites.  Roll with Drake Thursday.

20* Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern NCAA Tournament Opener on Texas Southern -2

Texas Southern (16-8) should be much more than a 2-point favorite against Mount St. Mary's (12-10) in this play-in game to kick off the 2021 NCAA Tournament.  They have fared better against the better competition and come into the tournament with a ton of confidence.

That's because the Tigers have gone 14-1 SU in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They played the much tougher non-conference schedule and had a good account of themselves against the better competition.

They only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They weren't really overmatched in any of those games.

The two best teams that Mount St. Mary's played out of conference were Maryland and VCU.  They lost by 18 to Maryland and by 18 to VCU.  The rest of their schedule was soft as butter, and they also lost to Navy in the non-conference.

Texas Southern is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games.  Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  Bet Texas Southern Thursday.

20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 227

I really like to bet UNDERS on these games that are rematches when teams play each other two games in a row.  Teams get familiar with each other and it always seems to favor defense in that 2nd meeting.

Plus, the recent head-to-head history between these teams suggests there's a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Mavericks with combined scores of 208, 197 and 198 points.  That's an average of 201 combined points per game, which is 26 points less than this 227-point total.

The Clippers just beat the Mavericks 109-99 on Monday in the first meeting of this double-header.  And both teams shot really well with the Clippers shooting 50% from the field and 43.7% from 3-point range.  The Mavericks shot 49.4% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range.  So it was played at a snail's pace, and it should be more of the same here.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Mavericks last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +2

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight games with two of those losses coming to the Nuggets by a single point and the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on them as well off those three straight losses.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Heat after 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  All of their recent wins have come against bottom feeders.  Only two of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records.  Their current five-game winning streak has come against the Pelicans, Magic (twice), Bulls and Cavaliers.

This is an awful spot for the Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Don't be surprised to see them rest some players in this one, most notably Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler.

The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Miami is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a win by 15 points or more.  Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -11.5

The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now.  They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry with this team.  And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point, it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.

The Rockets are 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have now lost 10 straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 19.9 points per game.  They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They could be without Danuel House, CHristian Wood, Ben McLemore and will likely be without Victor Oladipo, who is doubtful.

Oladipo is doubtful due to rest after scoring 34 points in their 107-119 loss to the Hawks last night.  Now the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This situation is awful for most teams, but especially troubling for a team like the Rockets that is short-handed already.

I have zero concern about a Warriors letdown tonight, too, which is why I'm willing to lay this large number.  The Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory after going 1-5 in their last six games overall.  But those six games came against the class of the league in the Lakers (twice), Clippers, Jazz, Suns and Blazers.  They even upset the Jazz by 12 for their lone victory.  This is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity to get back on the right track.  They will take advantage.

The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.  Enough said.  Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets after going 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall.  They are starting to just go through the motions, and I successfully faded them in each of their last two wins over Detroit by 5 as 11-point home favorites and New York by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites.

Now I'm fully expecting the Nets to lose outright as they hit the road here after playing a very weak schedule of late with their last seven wins coming against the Kings, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks.  This is a step up in class against the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are as healthy as they've been in a long time with the debut of Caris LeVert two games ago against the Phoenix Suns, a game they won outright 122-111 as 7-point dogs to flash their potential.  That was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 5-point road loss to the Lakers the night before.  And they went on to lose to the Nuggets on the road in a very tough 3-game road trip coming out of the All-Star Break.  

Now the Pacers are back home here and primed to upset the Nets.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  And you know LeVert is going to want some revenge here after the Nets just traded him away mid-season.  Look for a huge game from him, and for his teammates to rally around him and get this outright victory, though we'll take the 4 points for some insurance.

The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Indiana is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % above .600.  The Pacers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to cover six or seven of their last eight games.

Plays against road favorites (Brooklyn) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing against a team with a losing record are 57-25 (59.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 240

Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS.  Those are the only three sure things in life.  The Pelicans have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season.  They have gone 28-6 OVER in their last 34 games overall.  And the books have once again not set the number high enough here against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 240-plus points in nine of their last 13 games overall without any of those 240-plus efforts going to overtime.  The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency at 113.5 points per 100 possessions and 28th in defensive efficiency at 113.7 points per 100 possessions.  That makes them the perfect OVER team.

The Blazers are in the same boat as they are 29th in defensive efficiency at 114.5 points per 100 possessions allowed.  Only the Kings have been worse.  But Portland is 8th in offensive efficiency, and they get a big boost on that end with the return of CJ McCollum from a foot injury tonight.  He averaged 26.7 points and 5.0 assists per game in 13 games prior to the injury.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 250, 243 and 245 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Six of the past nine meetings have seen 240 or more combined points.  Three of Portland's last four games have seen 242 or more combined points coming in.  Roll with the OVER In this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -9.5

The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now.  They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry.  And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.

The Rockets are 0-16 SU & 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They have now lost nine straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.8 points per game.  They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They could be without Christian Wood, Danuel House and Ben McLemore tonight as well.

Since the Hawks went to Nate McMillan as head coach they have been on fire.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and coming off two striaght blowout wins by 15 over Sacramento and by 18 over Cleveland.  Sitting at 19-20 this season, the Hawks have a chance to get to .500 for the first time since late January.  They will be motivated to do just that, so I don't expect a letdown here against Houston.

The nine straight losses by 11-plus points for Houston makes for a 9-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 9.5-point spread tonight.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Take the Hawks Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their performances.  They just got Marcus Smart back after the All-Star Break and are now a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Brooklyn, which is playing as well as anyone right now in going 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Boston should not be catching 4.5 points at home against Utah tonight.

The Jazz are overvalued due to that incredible run they went on until right up before the All-Star Break.  The Jazz have finally come back down to reality of late.  They are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with upset losses to the Warriors, 76ers, Pelicans and Heat.  Their only two wins came against the Magic and Rockets.  The Rockets are 0-16 in their last 16 games, while the Magic are 0-8 in their last eight contests.

The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games when playing 3 or fewer games in 10 days.  The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after playing a road game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Boston.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +8

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets, who are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I successfully backed the Pistons +11.5 against the Nets in a 5-point loss to them in Brooklyn's last game Saturday.  And now I'm fading them again tonight with the New York Knicks as 8-point underdogs.

The Knicks have been grossly undervalued all season.  They are 20-19 SU & 22-17 ATS this year.  They are coming off a 119-97 win in Oklahoma City for their fifth win in their last seven games.  Four of those five wins came by double-digits.  

Now the Knicks will be motivated to show they can play with a team like Brooklyn on National TV tonight.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and hasn't lost any of those games by more than 7 points.  That's important when we're talking about this 8-point spread tonight.

In fact, Brooklyn has just one win in its last 13 meetings with New York by more than 8 points, and that was a 10-point victory.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 8-point spread.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after playing two consecutive road games.  Take the Knicks Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +9.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards after going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall.  But their losses all came to good teams in Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Memphis (twice).  And they also upset the Clippers.

They only lost 119-125 to the Bucks at home on Saturday without both Bradley Beal and Dylan Bertans.  So they've proven they can hang with the Bucks even without these two, and there's a decent chance they get one or both back for the rematch today as both are questionable.  

The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge in this double-header situation.  I think the Bucks will relax enough that it will make it extremely difficult for them to win by 10-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Wizards have been undervalued for weeks as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall . Washington is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 Monday games.  The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pelicans OVER 234

The OVER is 27-6 in Pelicans last 33 games overall.  They have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season, and I think they have set this number against the Clippers too low here Sunday in what should be another shootout.

The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season giving up 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers can name their score as they rank 2nd in offensive efficiency, scoring 116.1 points per 100 possessions.  

The Pelicans are 8th in offensive efficiency as well at 113.1 points per 100 possessions.  And they may not have to face Patrick Beverly, who is the Clippers' best defender and expected to miss this game.  That means more Lou Williams and better offense but worse defense for the Clippers in this one.

New Orleans is 10-1 OVER when revenging a road loss this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans eight home games following an ATS win this season.  The OVER is 7-2 in Clippers last nine games as a road favorite.  The OVER is 17-4 in Pelicans last 21 home games.  The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

I faded the Toronto Raptors yesterday with success on the Charlotte Hornets, who beat them 114-104 as 2-point favorites.  I'm fading them again today for a number of the same reasons, not the least of which they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight and will not have much left in the tank.

The Raptors remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID.  That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup.  Their losses will be amplified in this 2nd of a back-to-back situatuion.

It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets.  Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

I have no doubt the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after coming out of the All-Star Break with two straight losses to the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat.  Those two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  Now the Bulls get a big step down in class here against the Raptors, who in their current state are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  And the Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now and the chemistry should be there in their 3rd game back from the break.

Chicago is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after losing four of its last five games coming in.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Bulls tonight.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -10.5

Things are getting worse before they get better for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are 0-15 SU & 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Each of their last eight losses have come by 11 points or more, and I think we can chalk up a ninth straight loss by 11-plus here against the Boston Celtics before this one is even played.

The Rockets are a G League team right now at best.  They are without Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, John Wall, Danuel House, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They are lokely to be without Victor Oladipo, who is questionable.  They just don't have many healthy bodies, and the ones they do are not even replacement-level players.  It's no wonder they have lost 15 straight and eight straight by 11-plus.

The Boston Celtics come in as healthy as they have been all season as they just got Marcus Smart back from injury after the All-Star Break.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Brooklyn Nets, who are playing as well as anyone right now.  They come in rested on two days' rest and can seriously just show up and win this game by 11-plus tonight.

Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Take the Celtics Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -6

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall with six straight covers coming in.  They received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, then made easy work of both Rutgers (90-68) and Iowa (72-61), so they should still be pretty fresh and ready to go for this Championship Game.

The same cannot be said for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have to be running on fumes here Sunday playing their 4th game in 4 days.  They have barely survived each game they've won to get here.  They beat lowly Minnesota 79-75 as an 11-point favorites, needed OT to beat Purdue, and upset Michigan 68-67 yesterday.

They took advantage of a Michigan team that was missing its best player in Isaiah Livers.  They won't be able to take advantage of Illinois, which is fully healthy and ready to cap off a championship season.  And Ohio State is likely to be without Kyle Young (8.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) due to a concussion, so they are going to be short-handed inside.  That's bad news when going up against a guy like Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) of Illinois.

Illinois is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are making the most of their AAC Tournament after what was a tough regular season due to COVID.  The Bearcats have pulled two straight upsets over SMU as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they have their sights set on making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Houston Sunday.

At the very least, the Bearcats should cover this 13.5-point spread, and there's plenty of reason to believe there's value with them here.  Keep in mind Cincinnati was only a 12.5-point dog at Houston in their last meeting on February 21st.  Now the Bearcats are 13.5-point dogs on a neutral.

Certainly the Bearcats want revenge after losing 52-90 at Houston, which is 15-0 at home this season.  But that was a rare blowout loss for them.  In fact, they haven't lost by more than 15 points in any other game all season.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, so I don't think fatigue will be much of an issue for the Bearcats compared to the Cougars.  If anything, it's Houston that will be the more tired team because Cincinnati goes eight deep and had all eight players play between 15 and 32 minutes yesterday.  Meanwhile, Houston had to work for a 76-74 win over Memphis, which saw four starters play 38, 38, 37 and 31 minutes.

Lastly, Houston is almost already assured of a Top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They just don't need this game as much as Cincinnati does, and I think motivation will be an issue for the Cougars.  Especially after recently blasting Cincinnati by 38 points they probably feel like they just have to show up to win.  I'll gladly back the team that wants it more catching 13.5 points.  Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.

15* Oregon State/Colorado Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Oregon State Beavers have quietly gone 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are coming off two straight upset victories over UCLA and Oregon, including their impressive 75-64 win over the Ducks yesterday as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are being disrespected once again as 8-point dogs to Colorado Saturday.

Colorado is coming off two straight hard-fought wins over California by 3 as 14-point favorites and USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  The Buffaloes are also played the late game last night, while Oregon State got to play before them.  I think the Beavers will actually be the fresher team here because of it.

Plus, Colorado is content with already punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament.  Oregon State is on a mission to make the big dance and likely still needs to win this game to get in.  At the very least they should be able to stay within this 8-point spread and only lost by 4 as 6.5-point dogs to the Buffaloes the last time they squared off.

The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Beavers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They were only double-digit favorites once during this streak, and that was against the Houston Rockets, who have now lost 15 straight games and are probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

Now the Nets are laying double-digits to a Detroit Pistons team that keeps showing up despite some injury problems all season.  The Pistons have finally gotten healthy now and have an absolute stud in Jerami Grant leading the way.

The Pistons have only lost by more than 10 points twice in their last 12 games overall.  So they have been very competitive, and I look for them to give the Nets a run for their money tonight.  The Nets are in a letdown spot off their big win over Boston.  And they just don't blow out the Pistons very often.

Detroit has only lost by more than 10 points to Brooklyn once in the last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing three consecutive road games.  Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its 10 games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They sit at 18-18 on the season after going 8-4 in their last 12 games overall.  And they have been especially good when fully healthy, which is the case for them right now.

The same cannot be said for the Raptors.  They remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID.  That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup.

It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets.  Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

The Hornets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  They only reason they didn't cover last game was because the Pistons got a meaningless layup at the buzzer.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Toronto and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5

Texas is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Longhorns have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming by 2 to West Virginia and on the road to Texas Tech.  They avenged that defeat to the Red Raiders yesterday with a clutch 67-66 win that gave them all the confidence in the world.

Now the Longhorns are in an extremely favorable spot today.  They had yesterday off after a positive COVID test for Kansas.  So they will be rested and ready to go and win the Big 12 Tournament here today against Oklahoma State.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after two hard-fought, upset wins over West Virginia and Baylor the past two days.  Both were decided by single-digits, and they win over Baylor makes it a successful Big 12 Tournament for the Cowboys no matter what happens in the championship game.  I think the rest and motivated really favors Texas here because of it.

The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Longhorns are 10-2 SU in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -4

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with five straight covers coming in.  They made easy work of Rutgers yesterday 90-68 so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Iowa Hawkeyes, who had to erase a 6-point halftime deficit to beat Wisconsin 62-57.  The fact that they were in a dog fight yesterday and the fact that they played the late game while Illinois played before them works against the Hawkeyes here. 

 Illinois will be the much fresher team after winning in a blowout and playing before Iowa Friday, especially with tip set for 3:30 EST this afternoon after Iowa played late last night.  The Fighting Illini won their lone meeting with Iowa 80-75 at home earlier this season.  They have a guy in Cockburn down low that can match up with Garza, and they have the athletic perimeter players on the outside that Iowa can't guard.  It's just a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Plays against underdogs (Iowa) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that beat the spread by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/LSU SEC No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the SEC.  They are a real sleeper to make a run in this tournament, and I love their chances of beating Ole Miss today.  Especially since they had a bye into this round, while Ole Miss has to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over SOuth Carolina yesterday.

LSU earned a bye by going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their final five games down the stretch with four wins by double-digits and an upset road win at Missouri.  Ole Miss is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Rebels here.

LSU won 75-61 as a 2-point road dog at Ole Miss in their lone meeting this season.  The Tigers improved to 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and they are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  With this line the Tigers basically just have to win to cover, which shouldn't be a problem given the favorable spot for them.  Roll with LSU Friday.

20* UNC/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3

Florida State has a massive rest advantage here after its game with Duke got postponed yesterday.  I was on the Seminoles in that game and disappointed it got postponed.  But I'm back on them again today for many of the same reasons I was against Duke.

North Carolina will be playing for a third consecutive day.  The Tar Heels had to rally from a halftime deficit to beat Virginia Tech 81-73 yesterday.  And that was a rusty Hokies team that was coming off a long COVID pause.

The Tar Heels had seven different players play at least 21 minutes yesterday against the Hokies.  They will be on tired legs here, and that's bad news against a fresh, deep Florida State team that will run them out of the gym.

The Tar Heels are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games as underdogs.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Seminoles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Seminoles are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.

North Carolina is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games where it grabbed 10 or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive wins.  It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today in a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are finally healthy and rolling.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with an upset win over the Clippers by 28 and a 1-point loss to the Bucks as 6-point dogs.  All four victories came by 14 points or more as well.

Now the Grizzlies take on a Denver Nuggets team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers and shouldn't be road favorites here.  But the Nuggets are getting that respect due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their final four games going into the All-Star Break with three of those wins coming against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in the Thunder, Bulls and Pacers.

I like the fact that the Grizzlies have already played a game out of the break with their 127-112 win over the Wizards to knock off the rust.  Meanwhile, Denver hasn't played since March 4th and will be rusty.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on three or more days' rest.

Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans had a gutless performance yesterday in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  You would think a team that lost four of its last five going into the break would come out motivated.  But they simply weren't, and they fell 105-135 to Minnesota despite being an 8-point favorite.  That's a Timberwolves that was 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their previous nine games and they lost by 30 to them.

Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and don't be surprised if they rest Zion Williamson like they sometimes do on these back-to-backs.  Either way, the Pelicans cannot be trusted to be laying 7.5 points here in this situation against a Cleveland Cavaliers team playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Cavaliers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset wins over the Hawks as 7.5-point dogs, Rockets twice as dogs and 76ers are 11.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to the Pacers by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs.  They come out of the break with a ton of momentum and looking to pick up right where they left off here.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Pelicans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  They have gone 21-5 this season, have won eight straight coming in and are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall.  This number is way too short today against Missouri given their advantages.

Arkansas earned a double-bye and is rested and ready to go now.  Meanwhile, Missouri was in a dog fight in a 73-70 win over Georgia yesterday as 6.5-point favorites.  Four starters had to play 30-plus minutes for the Tigers and they won't have much left in the tank here for Arkansas.  Look for the Razorbacks to run the Tigers out of the gym tonight.

Missouri is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Arkansas Friday. 

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue +1.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They should not be underdogs today to Ohio State with how well they are playing, their head-to-head success and the favorable spot for them.

Indeed, Purdue earned a double-bye and didn't have to play yesterday.  They will be rested and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Ohio State had to hold off Minnesota late for a 79-75 victory as 11-point favorites.  The Buckeyes are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Buckeyes are a tired team and are taking on a Purdue team they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS against this season.  The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 on the road.  Ohio State had two of its worst offensive performances of the season against this Purdue defense.  It won't go much better for them today on tired legs.  Purdue is now 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Kings OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings have been a great OVER bet all season.  They are 25-11 OVER in their 36 games this year.  And rarely do you see a Kings total set less than 230, so we will take advantage today and back the OVER.

The OVER is 11-1 in Kings last 12 games overall.  In fact, 13 of their last 14 games have seen 228 or more combined points, which makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.

The Rockets have pretty much quit defensively as they have allowed 118 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  But they should get their offense going here against a Kings team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.

Sacramento is 7-0 OVER In home games vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The OVER is 5-0 on Rockets last five games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 235 or more points four times.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with a 2-point loss to West Virginia and a 9-point loss to Texas Tech.

The Longhorns also lost by 2 to the Red Raiders earlier this season at home.  They blew a 10-point halftime lead in that 2-point loss.  They were also tied at halftime in their 9-point loss to Texas Tech in the rematch.  So they simply fell apart in the 2nd half of both games.  They will certainly want some revenge here, and while I don't believe in the saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season, I do believe it will be hard for the Red Raiders to beat a team as good as Texas three times.

That's especially the case with how well the Longhorns are playing right now and on the road this season.  Texas is 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  Texas Tech is just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games.

Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Red Raiders have been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season.  They are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games following a SU loss.  Take Texas Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5.5

The Wisconsin Badgers will be highly motivated for a victory in their Big Ten Tournament opener here against Penn State.  They ended the season on a three-game losing streak to three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Illinois, Purdue and Iowa with all three losses coming by 5 points or less.

Now the Badgers are rested and ready to go today against Penn State, which had to rally from a 15-point deficit to beat lowly Nebraska 72-66.  The Nittany Lions had to play their starters big minutes obviously to make that comeback and will now be tired.  

Penn State will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 5 days.  The Nittany Lions come in overvalued off three straight victories against three bottom feeders in the Big Ten in Minnesota, Maryland and Nebraska.  Conversely, Wisconsin comes in undervalued off three straight losses to the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  Penn State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  The Badgers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Wisconsin Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

I like the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They lost their second-to-last game prior to the All-Star Break to these same Dallas Mavericks 78-87 on the road.  Now they come out of the break and get to host the Mavericks and will obviously be motivated for revenge.

They get to face the Mavericks in a much more vulnerable spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 115-104 home win over the Dallas Mavericks last night.  Don't be surprised if they decide to rest either Porzingis or Doncic, but either way I like the Thunder here.

The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on zero rest.  Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are probably the worst team in the NBA right now.  They are 5-29 SU in their last 34 games overall.  They are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 20.4 points per game.

Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they just lost Malik Beasley and his 20.5 PPG to a 12-game suspension.  He was one of the few brights spots on this team pre-suspension.  They are still without De'Angelo Russell and his 19.3 PPG and 5.1 APG.  That's roughly 40 PPG they are missing between those two players combined.  There just isn't much talent on this team now outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is a terrible leader.

Now the Timberwolves come out of the All-Star Break and face a Pelicans team that will be motivated to make a playoff push.  I think we get an undervalued Pelicans team due to losing four of their last five games going into the break.  Three of those losses came by 4 points or less.  The other loss was the 2nd of a back-to-back to Miami without Zion Williamson.  They also upset the Jazz as 7-point underdogs.

Now the Pelicans take a big step down in competition and should handle the Timberwolves.  New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days' rest.  This is a game they should win by double-digits against the pathetic Timberwolves.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.