15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to play for pride as they build for next year.  They have won three of their last four games coming in with their only loss coming to Utah on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Kings by 9 at home, the Suns by 5 at home, and the Wizards by 3 on the road.

Andrew Wiggins had 32 points against the Suns on Monday, while Karl-Anthony Towns had 27 and 10 rebounds.  ''It's a process, and this can lead into next year,'' Wiggins said. ''We don't want to stop. We play hard for a reason. We're building something here.''

Los Angeles is playing well coming in, but it literally has nothing to play for right now as it's locked into the No. 4 seed in the West.  That realization will sink in with this team down the stretch, making the Clippers great fade material going forward.

Minnesota ended a 14-game losing streak to Los Angeles with a 108-102 road victory on February 3rd.  The Clippers have won seven straight meetings in Minnesota, but four of the last five have been decided by 6 points or less, and there's a decent chance this +5.5 comes into play tonight, though I expect the T'Wolves to win outright.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (win pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +1

The Toronto Raptors should not be home underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks.  I know Kyle Lowry had his elbow drained, but he's still listed as probable and told reporters he doesn't plan on missing any time.  Even if he doesn't go, Cory Joseph is good enough at the point to lead the Raptors to victory.

Toronto still has a shot to catch Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the East.  It comes in undervalued due to losing three of its last four, but two of those losses came on the road to Houston and Boston, and the other was at home to red hot Oklahoma City.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to winning 12 of its last 14 games overall.  But one of those losses was a 96-104 loss at Toronto, which was Atlanta's third straight loss to the Raptors in this series.  Toronto simply has Atlanta's number, and that will continue tonight.

The Raptors are 28-9 at home this season.  Atlanta is 48-71 ATS in its last 119 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling right now, but they are in a very tough spot here, and as a result they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  Oklahoma City will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Raptors last night.

Detroit is in a great rest situation, coming in on 2 days' rest.  The Pistons have a lot to play for here as they are clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East.  Plus, the Pistons have been a great bet at home all season, going 24-13 SU & 22-13-2 ATS in 37 home games.

It has been a wise move to fade the Thunder on the road as they are just 12-21-2 ATS as visitors this season.  Soon, the Thunder will start resting their players because they are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  Don't be surprised if their studs play limited minutes tonight in this back-to-back situation.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games off a game where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Plays on home underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -11.5

The Charlotte Hornets are currently the No. 6 seed in the East.  But there are only 2 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, so they have a good chance of getting home-court advantage in the first round.  That's why the Hornets will not be taking the 76ers lightly tonight.

Of course, the Hornets haven't had any problem overlooking the 76ers in their first two meetings this season.  They won by 25 points at home and by 20 points on the road, outscoring the 76ers by a combined 45 points in their two meetings.  That's an average of 22.5 points per game, and another blowout can be expected here.

The 76ers come in overvalued off a 4-game road trip in which they went 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They only lost to the Warriors by 12 on Sunday, but now they're in a huge hangover spot here.  They will have a hard time getting up for the Hornets at home after playing the defending champion Warriors on the road.

Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS as a home underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season, getting outscored by 19.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after leading its previous game by 15 points or more at the half this season.  The 76ers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference.  Charlotte comes in on 2 days' rest, too, so it will be ready to go tonight.  Roll with the Hornets Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +7.5

The Chicago Bulls could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  I backed them with success last night as +3 underdogs in a 2-point loss to Atlanta, and I'll back them again tonight because they are catching way too many points (+7.5) against the Pacers again.

Chicago has lost four straight coming in, and that losing streak has it undervalued.  But make no mistake, the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 9th place in the East and 2.5 games behind the 8th-place Pistons, so they still have a chance.  Look for them to come up with a big effort here tonight.

The Pacers are only outscoring opponents by an average of 3.9 points per game at home this season.  They may win this game against the Bulls, but it's going to come down to the wire, and the +7.5 certainly has a great chance of coming into play.

Indiana is 2-12 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 16-30 ATS in March games over the last three years.  Indiana is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win.  The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics still have a lot to play for.  They are currently the #4 seed in the East, just a half-game ahead of 5th-place Miami and a half-game behind 3rd place Atlanta.  They want home-court advantage in the first round at least, and would obviously like to catch the Hawks.

The same cannot be said for the Los Angeles Clippers, who really don't have a lot to play for right now.  They are basically locked into the #4 seed in the West.  They are 5.5 games behind 3rd place Oklahoma City, and 4.5 games ahead of 5th place Memphis.

Because the Clippers' fate has pretty much already been sealed, they have been playing their worst basketball of the season of late.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall, and they've been even worse at the pay window.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

Boston also has a nice rest advantage here.  It will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days, while Los Angeles will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 4th game in 6 days, and its 6th game in 10 days.

The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +3

It's now or never for the Chicago Bulls, who are currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference and 2 games behind the Detroit Pistons for the 8th seed.  With five of their next six games on the road, the Bulls are looking at this home game against the Hawks as a must-win tonight.

Chicago couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now after losing three straight games with two to the Knicks and one to the Magic.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulls, and that's why it is time to jump on them while they're catching 3 points at home.

It's the perfect storm, too, because the Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They have won eight of their last nine games coming in, so the betting public has been making a killing on them as they've gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as well.  It's certainly time to fade the Hawks.

The Bulls are 24-13 at home this season, while the Hawks are 20-17 on the road.  Plays on home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +2.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This team shouldn't be a home underdog to almost anyone in the NBA considering the Raptors are 28-8 on the season at home.

The Thunder have been overvalued on the road all season, posting an 11-21-2 ATS record in all road games.  They are certainly overvalued coming into this one because of their 7-game winning streak.  After a 3-game home stand, the Thunder will now get back on the road where they haven't had much success all year.

There's no question that the Raptors will be the more motivated team, too.  The Thunder are pretty much locked into the #3 seed now with a 5.5-game lead over the #4 Clippers.  The Raptors still believe they can get home-court advantage in the East as they are 2.5 games behind the #1 Cavaliers.

Oklahoma City is 0-9 ATS in road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 10-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Toronto.  Take the Raptors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat UNDER 213

The books have really inflated this total tonight between Brooklyn and Miami.  Both teams have gone over the total quite a bit of late, which is the reason they have been forced to set the total higher than it should be as the betting public will continue to bet the over in games these teams are involved.

The Heat have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games overall, while the Nets have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7.  But to give you a feel for how this total is inflated, let's look at other totals for these teams.  The Nets haven't had a total set of more than 213 points in any of their last 21 games.  The Heat haven't had a total set of more than 210.5 points in any of their last 15 games with the last one higher than 213 being against the Warriors on February 24.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that this total is inflated.  The Nets and Heat have combined for 202 or fewer points in 30 of their last 31 meetings.  They have only topped this 213-point total once in their last 38 games, making for a 37-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* ND/UNC Elite 8 No-Brainer on North Carolina -9.5

I've been on the North Carolina Tar Heels since the beginning of the ACC Tournament.  They haven't once let me down since then, and they aren't about to in the Elite 8 against overmatched Notre Dame.

UNC is the most complete team left in the tournament with zero weaknesses.  My favorite thing about the Tar Heels is that they are dominant inside.  They have the best interior game of any team in the country, which means great rebounding, easy buckets, and 2nd chance points.

The Tar Heels have won eight straight games coming in.  All eight were against NCAA Tournament competition.  That includes a 78-47 blowout of Notre Dame on a neutral court already.  They don't have to win by 31 today, just 10 to cover this number, and that won't be a problem.

Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Fighting Irish are extremely lucky to be here as they've won in the final seconds of all three games in the tournament so far.  Their luck runs out today.  Bet North Carolina Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +21.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are looking at this contest like their championship game.  They will be giving their best effort to beat the defending champion Warriors, who are looking to set an NBA record for wins in the season.  That effort will be good enough to cover this massive 21.5-point spread.

It has certainly been a profitable investment to back the 76ers of late.  They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 1-point loss at Denver as 9-point dogs, and a 3-point loss at Portland as 15-point dogs in their last two games.

Teams fail to take the 76ers seriously, and that mindset will cost the Warriors tonight as they don't put them away by 22-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.  The Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, consistently overvalued due to the record they are trying to break.

The Warriors won each of the last two meetings, but they both went down to the wire.  The 76ers lost by 3 at home and by 5 on the road in their last two meetings.  They were a combined 32-point underdog in those two contests as well.  Philly is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less this season.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* Syracuse/Virginia Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +8

The Virginia Cavaliers are way overvalued after beating Iowa State in the Sweet 16.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but actually were outscored by the Cyclones the rest of the way.  Some shady officiating aided their win as well.

Now, the Cavaliers are 8-point favorites over the Syracuse Orange.  Syracuse is a team that has the length to defend Virginia, unlike Iowa State.  The Orange will present plenty of problems for the Cavaliers, who only have one day to prepare for this zone.

These teams met once this season with Virginia winning 73-65 at home as 9.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread.  There's a very good chance this game is decided by 8 points or less in the rematch, especially since it's on a neutral court he 2nd time around.

Syracuse is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three years.  Take Syracuse Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets (41-31) have a lot more to play for right now than the Milwaukee Bucks (30-43).  The Hornets are in 6th place in the East, but only 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the No. 3 seed.  They will be up for tonight's game, while the Bucks will not.

Both the Hornets and Bucks played road games last night and lost to the Pistons and Hawks, respectively.  But the Hornets are a much deeper team than the Bucks, so it won't affect them as much.

Also, the Hornets had two days off before playing yesterday, so they will be the fresher team anyways.  The Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days.  They have lost each of their last four games and have rarely been competitive.

Plays on road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings, and Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Hornets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are in desperate times right now.  They are currently in 9th place in the East, a full two games behind the Detroit Pistons for 8th place.  They cannot afford many more losses right now, especially not against a team like Orlando.

This is a good spot for the Bulls, who come in on one days' rest.  Orlando will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 97-108 in Miami last night.  The Magic will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, so they are running on fumes right now.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are not healthy right now.  They have lost six straight games coming in, and a big reason for that is they've been without Nikola Vucevic.  But both Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova are questionable to play tonight as well.

Chicago is 34-18 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 2-11 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three years.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Oregon Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon -1.5

The Oregon Ducks have been getting a lot of grief in this tournament, but they have proven themselves to be the real deal.  The Pac-12 did not show well in the tournament, but the Ducks are far and away the best team in the conference, and that is proving to be the case in the NCAA Tournament.

Now the Ducks will prove it in the Elite 8 once again against Oklahoma.  They are coming off a 14-point win over Duke in an absolutely dominant showing.  It helps that they have a nice home-court advantage that game and this one will be played on the West Coast in Anaheim.

Both teams are elite offensively, but the difference in this game is going to be defense, and there's no doubting that the Ducks are the better defensive team.  Dating back to the Pac-12 Championship, they have held their last four opponents to an average of 60.3 points per game.  They have won 11 straight games coming in.

Oregon is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Ducks are 53-24-3 ATS in their last 80 games following a ATS win.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* UNC/Indiana Side & Total PARLAY on UNC -5.5/UNDER 159

Reasons for North Carolina:

The Tar Heels are the lone exception in terms of ACC teams being overrated coming into the Sweet 16.  There are six ACC teams in the Sweet 16, and they have a 12-1 record overall.  But the Tar Heels are the only team that I believe is legit.

In fact, I picked them to win the NCAA Tournament because they are the only team that I believe has no weaknesses.  They have the best post play of any team in the tournament behind Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, and they have two of the best guards in the big dance in Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige.  They also go deep on the bench in came anyone gets in foul trouble.

Indiana is getting a lot of love right now for its win over Kentucky, but the fact of the matter is that the Wildcats simply had an off night.  Give the Hoosiers some credit for winning that game, but now they'll be up against the best team they have faced all season in the Tar Heels.

Where this game is going to be won is in the paint.  The only way to stop Carolina is to be able to stop them inside, but Indiana isn't built to do that.  Teams have been torching the Hoosiers all year in the paint, and that won't change in this match-up.  I'll gladly side with the team that is going to get easy buckets inside and dominate the glass than the one that has to rely on outside shooting to win games, which is Indiana.

The Hoosiers also have some key injuries that they'll have to overcome in this one.  Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan were both injured and knocked out of the game against Kentucky.  While both are probable to play Friday, I have to question their effectiveness, especially Johnson who looked like he couldn't move his shoulder at all.

UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with all seven victories coming against NCAA Tournament teams, and four of those coming by 16 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.  Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC teams.  Take North Carolina Friday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Admittedly, Indiana has been better defensively as the season has gone on.  The Hoosiers wound up finishing 3rd in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and they held Kentucky to less than a point per possession.  It was an off night for the Wildcats, but impressive nonetheless.

While I do think UNC will score plenty of points to cover, I don't believe it will top 80 points in this one.  The key will be its defense holding Indiana to 70 or less, which I think is a fair assumption.  The Tar Heels were underrated defensively this season as they ranked 3rd in the 15-team ACC in defensive efficiency.  Over their last seven games, the Tar Heels have allowed over a point per possession only once, and four of those games were played against teams still in the tournament.

Over it last 20 games, UNC has played in only one contest that saw more than 160 combined points.  Over its last 21 games, Indiana has seen only two of its games surpassing 160 combined points in regulation.  That's a combined 38-3 angle backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 159 points.  This one will be lower-scoring than expected.  Roll with the UNDER.

20* UNC/Indiana Side & Total PARLAY on UNC -5.5/UNDER 159

Reasons for North Carolina:

The Tar Heels are the lone exception in terms of ACC teams being overrated coming into the Sweet 16.  There are six ACC teams in the Sweet 16, and they have a 12-1 record overall.  But the Tar Heels are the only team that I believe is legit.

In fact, I picked them to win the NCAA Tournament because they are the only team that I believe has no weaknesses.  They have the best post play of any team in the tournament behind Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks, and they have two of the best guards in the big dance in Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige.  They also go deep on the bench in came anyone gets in foul trouble.

Indiana is getting a lot of love right now for its win over Kentucky, but the fact of the matter is that the Wildcats simply had an off night.  Give the Hoosiers some credit for winning that game, but now they'll be up against the best team they have faced all season in the Tar Heels.

Where this game is going to be won is in the paint.  The only way to stop Carolina is to be able to stop them inside, but Indiana isn't built to do that.  Teams have been torching the Hoosiers all year in the paint, and that won't change in this match-up.  I'll gladly side with the team that is going to get easy buckets inside and dominate the glass than the one that has to rely on outside shooting to win games, which is Indiana.

The Hoosiers also have some key injuries that they'll have to overcome in this one.  Robert Johnson and Juwan Morgan were both injured and knocked out of the game against Kentucky.  While both are probable to play Friday, I have to question their effectiveness, especially Johnson who looked like he couldn't move his shoulder at all.

UNC is 7-0 in its last seven games with all seven victories coming against NCAA Tournament teams, and four of those coming by 16 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS win.  Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC teams.  Take North Carolina Friday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Admittedly, Indiana has been better defensively as the season has gone on.  The Hoosiers wound up finishing 3rd in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, and they held Kentucky to less than a point per possession.  It was an off night for the Wildcats, but impressive nonetheless.

While I do think UNC will score plenty of points to cover, I don't believe it will top 80 points in this one.  The key will be its defense holding Indiana to 70 or less, which I think is a fair assumption.  The Tar Heels were underrated defensively this season as they ranked 3rd in the 15-team ACC in defensive efficiency.  Over their last seven games, the Tar Heels have allowed over a point per possession only once, and four of those games were played against teams still in the tournament.

Over it last 20 games, UNC has played in only one contest that saw more than 160 combined points.  Over its last 21 games, Indiana has seen only two of its games surpassing 160 combined points in regulation.  That's a combined 38-3 angle backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 159 points.  This one will be lower-scoring than expected.  Roll with the UNDER.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value today as only 2-point home favorites over the Charlotte Hornets.  They are currently clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East with both Chicago and Washington right on their heels, so they cannot afford to lose this game at home.

It has been nice to see what the Pistons have been capable of of late when they've played with a sense of urgency.  Indeed, they are 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They have been solid at home all season with a 23-12 record, while the Hornets are just 14-19 on the road.

The Pistons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 21-12 ATS in all home games this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The Iowa State Cyclones came into the NCAA Tournament underrated.  They didn't live up to expectations in the regular season, but that was because they had some injuries, suspensions and a lack of depth slow them down for much of the year.

It's no secret that Iowa State was poor on defense for a lot of the year, but the biggest reason for that was that they didn't pressure teams as much because they didn't want to get into foul trouble.  Well, that has changed in the NCAA Tournament as their defense has taken a couple steps in the right direction.

Yes, Iona scored 81 points on them in their opener, but Iona shoots the ball within 15 seconds on most possessions.  The Cyclones still won that game by 13 points, 94-81.  They also beat Little Rock 78-61 and held them to 37% shooting for the game.  That's the same Little Rock team that upset Purdue in the 1st round, and one that won 30 games this year.

So, the defense is getting better, and now it is keeping up with ISU's offense, which ranks 3rd in the country in efficiency.  The Cyclones average 82.1 points per game, shoot 50.3% from the field, and 38.6% from the 3-point line.  Their offense is the reason they will pull this upset against Virginia.

Virginia's pack-line defense gets a lot of hype, and for good reason, because it is one of the best in the country.  However, there are a couple ways to beat it, and Iowa State just so happens to have the ingredients to do so.

First, you need to be able to shoot from outside, which Iowa State excels at in making 38.6% from distance.  Second, you need a player who can pass out of double-teams in the post.  Georges Niang may be the best post player in the country in finding open teammates, and his is certainly the toughest matchup in the country.  He will test Virginia's defense like it hasn't been tested yet this season.

Many say that Iowa State has to run to be efficient, but that's simply not the case.  And running against Virginia is a recipe for disaster.  The best way to beat Virginia is to move the ball around and wear out the Cavaliers, and the Cyclones are great at that.  They are actually one of the most efficient half-court offenses in the country, and you can bet that Steve Prohm will emphasis ball movement against Virginia.  Their 16 assists per game is also one of the top marks in the land.

The ACC being 12-1 in the NCAA Tournament is giving most of their teams too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers.  I think that's certainly the case with Virginia.  The average seed the ACC has beaten is 11.8, so they were supposed to advance in most cases.

Butler was able to hang with Virginia for 40 minutes, and the Bulldogs aren't nearly as good of a team as Iowa State. It took a late surge and plenty of free throws in the final seconds for Virginia to put away Butler with a 77-69 final.  Butler is a solid offensive team that put up 69 points on this Virginia defense, but like I said, the Bulldogs are nothing compared to Iowa State offensively.

Virginia owned Butler on offense by shooting 55.8% for the game, but that's not going to happen against this improved Iowa State defense that has shot-blocker Jamaal McKay protecting the rim, and two elite perimeter defenders in Monte Morris and Matt Thomas who match up very well with London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon, respectively.

The Cavaliers really only have three guys that can beat you in Brogdon, Anthony Gill and Perrantes being the only players averaging more than 6.9 points per game.  Iowa State has six guys that can beat you with six players averaging in double-figures scoring coming into the NCAA Tournament, one of only two teams in the country who can claim that.

It's also worth noting that the Cyclones should have a nice home-court advantage as this game will be played in Chicago, just about a six-hour drive from Ames, IA. It's also important to note that 7 of Iowa State's 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less, especially considering they are getting 5 points here.  All 11 losses came by 10 points or fewer as well.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest over the last three years.  They are actually losing by 2.6 points per game on average in these spots.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Duke/Oregon Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3

The ACC is overrated as a whole with a 12-1 record in the NCAA Tournament that has come against teams with an average seed of 11.8.  I have not been impressed at all with Duke.  It needed to overcome a halftime deficit to beat UNC-Wilmington 93-85, and it needed late free throws to top Yale 71-64.

But now the Blue Devils take a massive step up in competition against Oregon.  For whatever reason, the Ducks just don't get the respect they deserve.  A lot of that has to do with the Pac-12 only having one team left, but the Ducks were far and away the best team in the conference all season.  I think the poor perception of the Pac-12 has kept this line lower than it should be, while the tremendous perception of the ACC has also contributed to that.

Oregon has won 10 straight games while rarely getting tested.  However, it was tested finally in a 69-64 win over St. Joseph's in which the Ducks had to erase a late deficit to win.  I think that effort will have this team glimmering with confidence coming in.  Because if this game gets close late, which I don't expect it will, the Ducks have the balls to get it done.

From a matchup standpoint, Duke's biggest weakness is it's lack of depth.  That will come into play here.  Duke's defense has been exposed by more athletic teams all season, and the Ducks are extremely athletic and aggressive at attacking the rim.  They will put a ton of pressure on Duke in that aspect to stay out of foul trouble.

The Ducks attempt 24 free throws per game against teams that only allow 21 free throw attempts per game, so that just goes to show their attacking style.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the tournament as they average 78.9 points on 46.8% shooting.  They are also the better defensive team here, giving up 68.5 points per game against opponents that average 74.3 points per game.

Oregon is also going to have a huge edge in the paint.  Duke has struggled rebounding all year.  Well, Oregon has a ton of size inside and is relentless in attacking the basket and the offensive glass.  The Blue Devils have actually been outrebounded on the season, and Yale owned them on the glass with a 42-28 rebounding edge.

The Ducks will have a heavy home-court advantage in this one as this game will be played on the West Coast out in Anaheim.  Duke is 1-7 ATS in neutral court games this season.  The Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  The Blue Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Oregon is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off four straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz have saved their best basketball for last, and it couldn't have come at a better time.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall to move into 8th place in the Western Conference standings.  But they know their work isn't done, and they'll continue to play well tonight while catching a whopping 9.5 points from the Thunder.

The Jazz are really feeling good after coming back from double-digits down to beat Houston 89-87 last night.  The Rockets are the primary team they are fighting with to make the playoffs.  While this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back now, the Jazz should be fine because they are healthy and they had two days off before that Houston game.

I really do not like the mindset of the Thunder right now.  They can't reach the No. 2 seed, and they have the No. 3 seed pretty much locked up because they are 5.5 games ahead of 4th-place Los Angeles.  They are kind of stuck in La La Land here with not much to play for the rest of the way.  Plus, they could be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Saturday.

This has been a closely-contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  The Thunder are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following a win.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -13

I really love the mindset of the Indiana Pacers right now.  They aren't taking anything for granted right now after missing the playoffs by one game last year, and with Chicago, Detroit and Washington right on their heels to make the playoffs this season.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th-place Bulls.

"We all understand how important every single game is," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said at Tuesday's practice. "We talk frequently about the fact that we missed the playoffs by one game last year."

"Right now we don't have the feeling of our spot is guaranteed, and it's good," George said. "We should have a little pressure. Hopefully that makes us perform better."

That's why they won't be overlooking the Pelicans, who are a mash unit right now.  Nearly all of New Orleans' best players are sidelined. Anthony Davis recently joined starting guards Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon as being out for the season, second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson could be shut down due to a groin injury, and Norris Cole has missed eight straight games with back soreness.

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Indiana is 13-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Better yet, the Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Roll with the Pacers Thursday.

15* GA Tech/SDSU ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +5

We've seen how strong the ACC has been with six teams in the Sweet 16, which is the most for a single conference since 1975.  Now, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are representing the conference very well in the NIT.  I look for that to continue tonight.

Georgia Tech has absolutely destroyed two very good teams to reach the quarterfinals.  It beat Houston 81-62 at home as 3.5-point favorites, and then went on the road and beat South Carolina 83-66 as 4.5-point dogs.  Many felt the Gamecocks should have been in the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State has had a much easier path to the quarterfinals.  It beat IUPU-Fort Wayne at home in its first game, and then Washington in its second game.  I would argue that both South Carolina and Houston are better than either of the teams that SDSU has defeated.

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Yellow Jackets have had a combined 78-46 rebounding edge over their first two opponents in the NIT, and their ability to win the battle on the glass in this game will be key to them covering this 5-point spread.  Roll with Georgia Tech Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics PK

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 91-105 loss at Toronto on March 18 just five days ago.  They have blown out both Philadelphia (by 15) and Orlando (by 11) since then, and now they are primed to get their payback on the Raptors at home this time around.

The Celtics have been danger at home of late, going 15-2 in their last 17 home games.  This is a great price for them at just a pick 'em given that home success.  Plus, they are fighting for the #3 seed in the East as they are in a four-way battle with three other teams who also have 41 wins, just like them.  So they could be the #3 seed or the #6 seed, which is a huge difference.

The Raptors come in overvalued due to having won four straight and seven of their last eight.  But they have some key injuries right now that could hamper them going forward.  James Johnson, Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas are all questionable, while DeMarre Carroll remains out.

The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Boston.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards PK

The Washington Wizards are in a home-and-home situation here with the Atlanta Hawks.  The Wizards won 117-102 in Atlanta two nights ago.  Usually I'd take the team that lost the first meeting in these situations, but not this time.

That's because the Wizards are still fighting to make the playoffs, so they won't have the usual letdown that comes with winning the first game of a home-and-home.  The Wizards are in 10th place in the East, currently 1.5 games behind both the 8th-place Bulls and 9th-place Pistons.

But Washington has at least given itself a fighting chance by playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks.  It is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Wizards will be looking to move above .500 for the first time in four months now.  A big reason for their resurgence is that they are finally healthy, while the Hawks could be without Dennis Schroder (questionable) due to an ankle injury.

The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets have not quit on their season even with their poor record.  They certainly will be primed for a solid performance today as they are as healthy as they've been all season, and they have had two days' rest in between games having last played on Saturday.

The Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They used a lot of energy in erasing a 23-point deficit and coming back to beat the Spurs 91-88 at home last night.  Off such an emotional, draining win, look for them to be very flat tonight against the Nets.

The Nets have played the Hornets tough in recent meeting as the last three were decided by 8, 5 and 3 points.  Plays on any team (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 64-31 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays against road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS over the last five years.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.  Brooklyn is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* St. Mary's/Valpo ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Valparaiso -3.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders certainly felt like they belonged in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't feeling sorry for themselves.  Instead, they are taking care of business thus far in the NIT.

Indeed, they rolled Texas Southern 84-73 and then topped a very good Florida State team from the ACC two days later 81-69.  The Crusaders are now 16-1 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of nearly 19 points per game.

Valpo has a huge rest advantage here against St. Mary's.  It last played on March 17, while St. Mary's last played two days ago in a home win over Georgia.  The Gaels have had to travel to Valpo on short notice and have had little time to prepare for the Crusaders.  That's a big disadvantage.

St. Mary's is 2-10 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Valpo is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 80% over the last two seasons.  The Crusaders are 9-0 ATS versus teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the Crusaders.  Take Valpo Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Washington Wizards have given themselves a fighting chance to make the playoffs after winning each of their last four games overall, including three by double-digits.  They beat the Pistons by 43, the Bulls by 21 and the Knicks by 10 during this stretch.

Now the Wizards currently sit in 10th place in the East, just 1.5 games behind both 9th-place Detroit and 8th-place Chicago.  They still have a lot of work to do, and going on the road and beating the Atlanta Hawks today would certainly help.  It's safe to say they'll be laying it all on the line to get a victory.

I believe the Hawks are overvalued right now due to the way they have been playing of late.  They have actually gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and the betting public has certainly taken notice.  Now they are laying a few too many points to the Wizards tonight in a game that will go down to the wire.

Washington is 45-28 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 1 days rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 54-29 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Detroit Pistons are currently in 9th place in the East, just percentage points behind the Chicago Bulls for the 8th spot.  They have won two in a row coming in and will certainly be highly motivated the rest of the way to try and get into the playoffs.

Now the Pistons get to take on a Milwaukee Bucks team that is out of it at 30-40 on the season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 85-94 at home to the Jazz last night, while the Pistons had yesterday off.  That rest advantage is big here.

Detroit has won each of its last two meetings with Milwaukee this season.  It won 102-91 on the road and 102-95 at home.  In fact, the Pistons are 32-12 straight up in their last 44 home meetings with the Bucks.

Detroit is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Pistons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season, winning by nearly 15 points per game.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -15

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four overall.  It has come against a brutal schedule with Atlanta, Boston, Toronto and Oklahoma City, but now the Pacers get a break as they get to play the worst team in the NBA in the 76ers.

What I like about laying this big number here is that the Pacers cannot afford to overlook the 76ers.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the East, only a half-game ahead of both Chicago and Detroit, and two games ahead of Washington.  So they are very close to missing the playoffs altogether.

Overlooking the 76ers has not been something the Pacers have done, anyways.  They have won each of the last three meetings by double-digits, including a 27-point road win and a 20-point home victory in the last two meetings.  The 76ers just lost by 15 to the Celtics at home last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Philadelphia is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 vs. Eastern Conference.  Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday.

20* St. Joe's/Oregon CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -6.5

The Oregon Ducks just keep flying under the radar.  Of all the No. 1 seeds, they are the one that most are picking to get upset before the Final Four.  But make no mistake, this team is the real deal and one that will be playing in the Final Four in my opinion.

The Ducks cruised to a 29-6 season and have won nine straight coming in, including an 88-57 win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship and a 91-52 win over Holy Cross in the opening round.  I like the way this team is playing right now, and only laying 6.5 to St. Joe's in what will be a home atmosphere in Spokane is simply not enough.

I like this St. Joe's team and was on them against Cincinnati, but they are in trouble here.  The Hawks allowed Cincinnati's woeful offense to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and gave up 76 points and 10 3-pointers.

If the Bearcats had one of their best offensive nights of the season, just imagine what this highly-efficient Oregon offense that scores 79.2 points per game is going to do?  St. Joe's has won four of its last six, but it has also given up 82.5 points per game during that stretch, and none of those opponents are as good as Oregon offensively.

Oregon is 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Oregon is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS win.  Take Oregon Sunday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -4.5

Xavier represents my favorite play in the East Region of the 2016 NCAA Tournament.  I look for them to roll over the Wisconsin Badgers as short 4.5-point favorites today.

Xavier ended up covering in a 71-53 win over Weber State as 13.5-point favorites, but this game was a bigger blowout than the final score even scored.  The Musketeers missed more than 10 wide open layups, otherwise it would have been an even bigger trouncing.  But since they didn't win by more, this line is lower than it should be.

Wisconsin's win over Pitt is also keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Badgers managed to win despite only scoring 47 points as Pitt went ice cold in the 2nd half.  These teams combined for only 90 points, which is absolutely embarrassing with the 30-second shot clock.

I believe Wisconsin is a fraud and is due for a huge regression against the right opponent.  Xavier is that opponent as it has a team with far better athletes and scoring.  Purdue is very similar to Xavier in terms of size and personnel.  The Boilermakers held a combined 67-48 rebounding edge and a 47-28 edge at the free throw line against Wisconsin in both regular-season meetings.

Wisconsin is 2-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Remember, this team lost to Nebraska 58-70 in the Big Ten Tournament.  The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents.  The Musketeers are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  Xavier is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 non-conference games as well.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +1

After losing seven of their last eight games overall, the Dallas Mavericks are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs right now.  They are clinging on to the No. 8 seed with just a one-game lead over the Utah Jazz.

It's safe to say that the Mavericks will be laying it all on the line today to get a victory and stop the bleeding.  They do get to play a Portland team that they have had a lot of success against, winning three of the last four meetings.  The Mavericks are 32-12 in their last 44 home meetings with the Blazers.

This is a tough spot for the Blazers.  They will be playing the fourth game of their 4-game road trip after playing OKC, San Antonio and New Orleans in the first three.  This will also be their 3rd game in 4 days, so they have to be starting to wear down, especially since they are short-handed without starter Meyers Leonard.

Dallas is 102-68 ATS in its last 170 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  It's worth noting that its last game was against Golden State Friday, and it has faced six straight playoff contenders.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Blazers.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -1

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 70-56 upset win over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers played their worst game of the season to give that game away, with a ton of turnovers and wide open layups missed all game long.

Notre Dame is a veteran team that won't make those same mistakes.  The Fighting Irish are one of the best turnover teams in the country as they only give it away 10 times per game.  They are a much better offensive team than West Virginia, shooting 47.4% for season and 37.3% from 3-point range.  They will beat the Stephen F. Austin press and convert, unlike WVU.

I love backing great point guards against the press, and the Fighting Irish certainly have one in their best player in Demetrius Jackson.  He averages 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He also only turns the ball over two times per game, which is pretty good considering how often the ball is in his hands.

Notre Dame is 19-9 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games after 15-plus games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.  Roll with Notre Dame Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UConn +8

The UConn Huskies are showing great value today as big underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks.  This is a game that they can take down to the wire and possibly pull off the upset.

UConn is clearly one of the hottest teams in the country right now.  It rolled through the AAC Tournament, and it came from behind to beat Colorado 74-67 in the Sweet 16.  I like the fact that Colorado played the early game on Thursday and was able to watch Kansas after, too.

This is a good matchup for the Huskies.  Their strength is their defense, both on the interior and with their guards.  They give up just 63.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting against teams that average 72.5 points on 43.6% shooting.  They pressure the opponent all the way out to half court in their man defense.  Their ability to guard Frank Mason and Devonte Graham on the perimeter is going to be huge in this one.

UConn is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 NCAA Tournament games, and 37-15-1 ATS in its last 53 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Kansas is 2-9 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Heat UNDER 209.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat.  These are two teams who are very familiar with one another, and when they get together, the end result is usually a low-scoring affair.

Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points, including 183 and 194-point outputs in their two meetings during the 2015-16 season.  They have averaged 195.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.

Miami is 16-3 UNDER vs. teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 56-33 UNDER in its last 89 games when playing its 5th game in 7 days.  Miami is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 49-23 in Cavaliers last 72 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones exorcised their demons from losing to UAB last year with an impressive 94-81 win over Iona in the opening round.  Look for this team to continue playing with a chip on its shoulder today.

Iowa State caught a break when Arkansas-Little Rock upset Purdue in double-overtime.  Purdue would have been a bad matchup for them because of its size, but this is a much better one.  Little-Rock overcame a 13-point deficit with under four minutes remaining to win in double-OT.  They will be the more tired team because of it, and they played after Iowa State, so the Cyclones had a chance to watch them after beating Iona.

Little-Rock is a smaller team similar to what Iona was.  The Cyclones feast on small teams because they can't be stopped offensively.  They rank 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are one of only two teams in the land with at least six players averaging 10 points per game coming into the tournament.

Little-Rock is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/St. Joe's Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Joseph's +1.5

The St. Joseph's Hawks have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball all season.  Bettors who backed them all year would have gone 22-11 ATS in all of their games.  And the Hawks continue to get no respect as underdogs to Cincinnati here.

The Hawks won the Atlantic 10 Tournament with wins over three of the best teams in the conference, including two tournament teams in Dayton and VCU.  They rolled VCU 87-74 in the Championship Game, and now they come into the NCAA Tournament with a ton of confidence.

The tandem of Isaiah Miles (18.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and DeAndre Bembrey (17.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.5 apg) gives the Hawks one of the best frontcourts in the country.  These two have really stepped up their games even more down the stretch as the Hawks have put up at least 82 points in four of their last five games overall, and 70 or more points in 12 straight.  They're really unstoppable offensively.

Cincinnati is a very good defensive team, but I think it will struggle to find easy baskets in this one.  The Hawks force teams to beat them with the 3-pointer, and the Bearcats just have never been a very good outside shooting team.  While they are better this season only slightly, they still shoot just 34.5% from 3-point range.

I've watched plenty of Cincinnati this season, and it is simply too predictable.  Time and time again, Troy Caupain has to bail them out with a last second shot on offense.  And he isn't a very efficient scorer at all, shooting just 37.5% from the field and 32.1% from the 3-point line.  He simply is asked to do too much for this team, especially with all the nagging injuries right now.  Farad Cobb (knee), Gary Clark (ankle), Caupain (back) and Shaquille Thomas (groin) are all banged up heading into the tournament.

What stood out to me in this one is common opponents.  These teams had three common opponents this year in George Washington, Temple and VCU.  St. Joseph's went 4-1 against them and outscored them by 7.0 points per game, while Cincinnati went 2-2 against them and outscored them by only 0.5 points per game.

St. Joseph's beat Temple 66-65 on the road, while Cincinnati lost to Temple 70-77 at home and 65-67 on the road.  Cincinnati only beat George Washington by 5 on a neutral court, while St. Joseph's beat George Washington by a combined 24 points in two meetings this season, both of which were away from home.  They won by 18 on the road and by 6 on a neutral court.

Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  St. Joseph's is 9-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Hawks.  Roll with St. Joseph's Friday.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on Dallas +9

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now for a number of reasons.  They are close to setting the record for best record in a season, which is one of them, but they've also covered the spread in four of their last five coming in.

The betting public has made a fortune on this team all season and will continue pounding them, which creates artificial line value a lot of the time.  That's especially the case tonight as the Mavs are catching 9 points at home in a game I think they can win outright.

The Mavs are clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the West, which will have them motivated the rest of the way, if facing the defending champion Warriors isn't enough.  All six of Golden State's losses have come on the road this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game on average.  The Warriors may also be looking ahead to San Antonio tomorrow night, which makes this a bad spot for them.

Golden State is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -7

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public heading into the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they haven't lost a game in the 2016 calendar year, so they are the hot, trendy pick coming in.  I'm not buying it.

Stephen F. Austin played in the lowly Southland Conference, going 20-0 against conference competition this season when you include the Southland Tournament.  The second and third place finishers in the Southland this season were Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Incarnate Word, if that tells you anything about how bad this conference was.

A closer look at SFA's non-conference record tells the story about how good this team really is.  The Lumberjacks went 7-5 outside the conference.  They lost by 42 at Baylor, which is a team that West Virginia beat twice this season by double-digits both times.  The Lumberjacks also lost by 10 at Northern Iowa, lost to AAC bottom-feeder Tulane on a neutral court, and lost at Arizona State by 7 and at UAB by 10.

So, West Virginia is going to be the best team that SFA has faced all season.  The Mountaineers finished 2nd in the Big 12 regular season standings and 2nd in the Conference Tournament.  Despite that feat in the toughest conference in the country, the Mountaineers continue to get no respect from anyone.  They should be more than a 7-point favorite here.

Both teams like to force turnovers with up-tempo pressure, but West Virginia is better at it.  It presses on 37 percent of opponents' possessions, which is the highest press rate in the nation.  Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that WVU grabs more of its own misses (42.1 percent) on offense than any other team in the country.  Those extra possessions will go a long way in helping the Mountaineers cover this 7-point spread.

Stephen F. Austin played the 260th-toughest schedule in the country, while West Virginia played the 24th-toughest.  The Mountaineers went 11-2 in non-conference games with their only two losses coming on the road to Virginia and Florida.  All 11 of their wins came by 8 points or more, including 10 by 13 points or more.

West Virginia is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 postseason tournament games, including 19-6 ATS in its last 25 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  I'll lay the points with the more battle-tested team from the Big 12 laying the small number here.  Take West Virginia Friday.v

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -14

I believe the Oklahoma Sooners come into the NCAA Tournament getting overlooked.  They were ranked No. 1 in the country at one point this season, but they failed to even earn a No. 1 seed after letting Kansas overtake them in the Big 12.  Their somewhat shaky finish has them undervalued.

But make no mistake, Oklahoma is a national title contender.  The Sooners finished 25-7 this season five of their seven losses coming by 5 points or less, including a triple-OT loss at Kansas, a 5-point loss at Iowa State, another 4-point loss to Kansas, and a 2-point loss to WVU in the Big 12 Tournament in which Buddy Hield hit the game-winner, only to have it called off as it came just after the clock hit zero.

I think that loss in the Big 12 Tournament has given the Sooners some extra time to correct some mistakes and get back to playing how they were when they were the No. 1 team in the country.  Of course, stepping outside of the rugged Big 12, the best conference in the country, certainly works in their favor here as well.

Now the Sooners get to play one of the worst teams they have all season in CS-Bakersfield.  The Sooners went 12-0 in non-conference games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game.  That includes road wins over Memphis, Villanova (by 23), Hawaii and LSU.

Bakersfield played in the weak WAC this season and finished in a tie for second place.  It went 10-5 in non-conference games while playing the 322nd-toughest schedule in the country.  It went 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 and only played one team in the RPI Top 50.  Two losses that stood out to me were a 35-point loss at Saint Mary's and a 16-point loss at Arizona State.  Their biggest win all season came against Grand Canyon University.

Now, Bakersfield is up against the best team it has faced all season in Oklahoma.  The Sooners essentially get a home game to boot as this game will be played in Oklahoma City.  The Sooners went 14-1 at home this season, and while it's not a true home game, it might as well be.  They will feed off of the energy of the crowd and put it on Bakersfield from the opening tip in what I expect to be one of the biggest blowouts of the first round.

After playing the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, and going through the Big 12 gauntlet, the Sooners will welcome this game against lowly CS-Bakersfield to get back on track.  They can name the score here.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* Providence/USC Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on on Providence -2

The Providence Friars looked like a Final Four team early in the year.  They opened 14-1 with their only loss coming to Michigan State on a neutral court.  But then they got into a bit of a rut midseason and may have been worn down from their lack of depth.

However, they regrouped in time to go 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games overall and are back to playing how they did at the beginning of the season.  I like this momentum they have built up, and I also like the fact that they will be rested coming in so their lack of depth won't be an issue here.

The Friars boast not on, but two, of the best players in the country.  Ben Bentil is a forward who scores 21.2 points per game and grabs 7.8 rebounds per game.  He is impossible to stop.  Kris Dunn is arguably the best point guard in the land, averaging 165.0 points, 6.4 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game.

USC has gone the other direction down the stretch.  It is 3-7 in its last 10 games overall with all seven losses coming by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits, so it has rarely even been competitive.  Now the Trojans have to head all the way out to the East Coast in Raleigh, NC in what will be a favorable crowd for the Friars.

All of USC's key wins this season have come at home, while it is just 5-10 in road/neutral games this season.  Providence has been great on the road, going 10-6 in road/neutral games.  The Trojans have just one road/neutral win over a Top 50 opponent, which was Wichita State, who were playing without Fred VanVleet that game.

Providence beat Arizona on a neutral court this season, a team that is much stronger than USC from the Pac-12.  USC lost to Xavier by 10 on a neutral court, a team that is only slightly better than Providence.

The Friars are 10-2 ATS in March road games over the last three seasons.  Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  USC is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two years.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents.   The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +8.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are playing as well as almost anyone entering the NCAA Tournament.  Everyone picked San Diego State to win the Mountain West, but the Bulldogs were having non of it.  They kept rolling right along en route to a MWC Tournament title.

Indeed, Fresno State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes wins over UNLV (by 13), Colorado State (by 8) and San Diego State (by 5) in their three conference tournament games.  They also went on the road and beat Wyoming by 4 as 2-point dogs, New Mexico by 10 as 6.5-point dogs, and Utah State by 1 as 3.5-point dogs.

Utah also finished strong, aside from an absolute laugher in a 57-88 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  The Utes had won nine straight prior to that loss, which I believe has them overvalued coming in.  Each of their final four wins during that streak came by 8 points or fewer.

But what really stands out to me is common opponents.  These teams are pretty much dead even in common opponents.  Fresno State is 3-3 against the same teams that Utah has played, winning by 0.5 points per game.  Utah is 3-3 against those same teams, actually getting outscored by 0.2 points per game.

Fresno State went on the road and played both Arizona and Oregon tough this season, two teams I believe to be better than Utah in the Pac-12.  They lost by 13 as 12.5-point dogs at Arizona and by 5 as 11.5-point dogs at Oregon in a pair of true road games.  Utah was beaten three times by Oregon this season by 31, 18 and 10 points.  The Utes also only beat San Diego State by 5 at home, another MWC team that Fresno State beat twice and lost to in OT in the other meeting.

Fresno State likes to limit possessions by playing at a slow pace similar to Utah.  The good thing is that Fresno State forces turnovers on 20.8 percent of opponents' possession, good for 37th-best in the country.  Utah is prone to turnovers of its own, and it struggles against teams that play at a slow pace and force turnovers.  Teams similar to Fresno State in that respect are Oregon, Wichita State and Miami.  Utah lost to Miami by 24, Wichita State by 17, and Oregon by a combined 59 points in their three meetings.

The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Bet Fresno State Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3.5

The Charlotte Hornets could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have won eight of their last nine games overall, and we're starting to see them being overvalued as a result.  They lost outright by 11 to Dallas at home as 5.5-point favorites, and failed to cover last night as 9.5-point home favorites in an 8-point win over the Magic.

The fact that they played last night is important.  That means the Hornets will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA today, and the Hornets stand little to no chance of competing with Miami tonight because of it.  Yet, they are only 3.5-point underdogs because they are overvalued.

Miami, on the other hand, comes in well-rested and ready to go after having two days off since their last game against the Nuggets.  The Heat have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Toronto and Milwaukee.  But the Heat are 22-12 at home this season, while the Hornets are 12-19 on the road.

To say that Miami has owned Charlotte at home would be a massive understatement.  The Heat are 14-0 in their last 14 home meetings with the Hornets dating back to 2010.  The Hornets are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings with Miami.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +9

Arkansas-Little Rock is one of my favorite small-school teams in the country.  I've had the opportunity to watch them a handful of times, and I come away impressed every time.  This team is a Giant Killer that could pull off the upset against Purdue in the opening round.

The Trojans just completed a history 29-4 season and beat some very good teams along the way.  They earned two true road wins against both San Diego State (49-43) and Tulsa (64-60) as 16.5-point and 10.5-point underdogs in non-conference action.

Three of their four losses this year came by 6 points or less, so that makes for a 32-1 system backing them when you figure they have only lost one game all season by more than 9 points.  They capped off their season with a 20-point win over Louisiana-Monroe in the Sun Belt Championship.

KenPom has the Trojans as the 47th-best team in the country.  They force turnovers at a high rate (21.4 percent), play at a very slow pace, and they take care of the ball (15.9 percent turnover rate).  They hit 38.7 percent of their 3-pointers offensively as well.

Defensively, the Trojans let teams fire away from deep (40 percent of attempts), yet hold them to just 30.1 percent (7th in the country).  So they pack it in and don't let you get easy shots inside, which is the perfect formula for beating Purdue, which focuses on getting the ball to its bigs on the interior.  The Trojans are the 28th-best team in the country defensively in allowing fewest post up points per possession.

Purdue turns the ball over a lot (17.8 percent), which ranked 11th in Big Ten play this season.  Little Rock has the sixth-best steals rate (6.3 percent) in the country, and again forces turnovers on 21.4 percent of opponents possessions.

Little Rock is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% or more of its games this season.  Little Rock is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game this season.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas-Little Rock Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -5

The Baylor Bears played the third-toughest schedule in the entire country and managed to get through it at 21-11. Their 10-8 mark in Big 12 play was only good enough for a tie for 5th place in the regular season. And their only two non-conference losses this season, both on the road to Oregon and Texas A&M, obviously don’t look bad now.

Baylor seems to make a run in the NCAA Tournament almost every year. It has a very difficult style to prepare for with its zone defense causing opponents all kinds of issues. But even more frustrating for the opposition is the way they attack the offensive glass. Their 14.0 second-chance points per game are the most in the Big 12, and they outscore opponents by 5.6 second-chance points per game, which is the highest differential among major conference teams.

Rico Gathers (11.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is the biggest culprit as he rebounds 19.1 percent of his team’s missed shots when he’s on the floor. Taurean Prince (15.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is an NBA prospect, while Al Freeman (11.5 ppg,) and Johnathan Motley (11.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are key contributors as well. Lester Medford (9.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg) runs the show at the point.

Yale (22-6) went 13-1 in Ivy League play to beat out Princeton by one game and punch its ticket into the big dance. Outside the conference, the Bulldogs went 9-5 and only really lost to the best teams they played. They only lost by 2 at SMU and by 4 at Illinois, but they were blown out on the road by Duke (by 19), Albany (by 34) and USC (by 12).  They had only one RPI Top 100 win all season, which came against Princeton at home by 4.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive conference games this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Scott Drew is 28-14 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Baylor. That loss was a 4-point defeat to Kansas in what was essentially a home game for the Jayhawks in Kansas City.

This is one of the weakest lines in the opening round of the tournament in my opinion. Baylor should be more than a 5-point favorite over Yale. The Bulldogs are getting too much credit for the season they had in the Ivy League, which is one of the worst conferences in the country.

We saw them get blown out by Duke, USC, and Albany out of conference, while also losing to SMU and Illinois. Now they will face arguably the best team they have all season in Baylor, and they’re only getting five points? Give me a break

Baylor will dominate the boards like it has all season and frustrate Yale with its length in the zone defense. The Bears also have the better guards in this one, which is key.  Baylor forces more turnovers per possession than any team that Yale has faced all season.  Those extra possessions will add up to a blowout win for the Bears.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -3

The Houston Rockets are flying under the radar as only 3-point favorites over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They had been very inconsistent all season, but now that their playoff lives are at stake, they have really turned it on here of late.

The Rockets are currently clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the West, just two games ahead of 9th-place Utah.  They're only in this position because they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They picked up impressive road wins at Boston and Toronto, while also topping Memphis by a whopping 49 points in their lone home game during this stretch.

The Clippers are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Not to mention, they used a lot of energy trying to beat Cleveland and San Antonio their last two games, only to come up way short.  They lost by 24 at home to Cleveland and by 21 at San Antonio.  They are lacking depth right now as Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers are out, while Paul Pierce is questionable.

Houston simply has Los Angeles' number.  The Rockets came back from a 3-1 deficit to win in seven games in the second round of the playoffs last year to advance to the Western Conference Finals.  They have won two of three meetings thus far this season, including a 107-97 victory in their lone home meeting.

The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Houston.  Take the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Tulsa/Michigan First Four ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +4

Without question, Tulsa (20-11) is the one team that most feel does not belong in the NCAA Tournament. But the Golden Hurricane will be using that as motivation to prove their naysayers wrong. UCLA was in the same position last year and went on to advance to the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed.

The Golden Hurricane finished in a three-way tie for third place in the American Athletic Conference. Four of the top six teams in this conference made the big dance, with the exceptions being Houston and SMU (not eligible). The committee didn’t penalize Tulsa for losing twice to Memphis in 12 days by a combined 32 points.

Perhaps the biggest reason Tulsa got the nod is that it had 8 wins against the RPI Top 100, going 8-8 against those teams with the 62nd-toughest schedule in the country. Wins over then-No. 9 Wichita State and then-No. 16 SMU certainly bolstered their chances.

This is a veteran Tulsa team that returned five starters from last year and has seven seniors in the nine-man rotation. It has three very talented players carrying the load in James Woodard (15.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (14.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) and Pat Birt (12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg).

The betting public is all over Michigan, moving the opening line from -3 all the way up to -4 and -4.5 in some places. This is no surprise with all of the negative publicity the Golden Hurricane are receiving heading into the NCAA Tournament. Literally nobody had Tulsa in the field Sunday afternoon, except for the committee.

I believe Haith and this veteran roster are going to use that as motivation. We saw UCLA make a run to the Sweet 16 when nobody thought they should have gotten in last year, and this team is just as capable. With seven seniors in the rotation, these guys will be out to prove a point come Wednesday night.

Tulsa is 11-2 ATS in road games off two straight games where its opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons. Frank Haith is 54-34 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Bet Tulsa Wednesday.

15* Vanderbilt/Wichita State First Four No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4

While everyone is calling Wichita State the most dangerous team in the field, equally scary is Vanderbilt (19-13), which many projected not to even make the NCAA Tournament after losing to Tennessee 65-67 in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, that loss did not keep them out because they had too many other quality wins.

Indeed, the Commodores had 8 wins against the RPI top 100 this season. They have wins over then-No. 8 Texas A&M and then-No. 16 Kentucky. One sign that this team is better than its record is that it didn’t fare well in close games this season. Indeed, the Commodores suffered 10 of their 13 losses by single-digits, so they were in almost every game they played.

This is a veteran team that has plenty of balance with five players averaging 8.9 points per game or more. Leading the way are a pair of future NBA guards in Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Damian Jones (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Luke Kornet (8.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) does a little bit of everything, and he can shoot the 3-pointer as well, making him a tough matchup.

I believe Wichita State to be overvalued due to what it has done in previous seasons. But this isn’t the same Shockers team that we’ve become accustomed to, and even with a healthy Fred VanVleet, they lost their final two meetings with Northern Iowa. VanVleet and Ron Baker simply have had to do too much.

I love the balance and experience that Vanderbilt has, and I believe it to be the most dangerous double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. Wichita State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games, time and time again being overvalued.

Plays on any team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite are 63-27 (70%) ATS since 1997.

Vanderbilt is 46-27 ATS in its last 73 games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Commodores are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference.  They are just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 8 Chicago Bulls and the No. 9 Detroit Pistons.  They are also only 4 games behind Boston for the No. 3 seed in the East, so anything is possible for them going forward.

One thing is certain, given their current position, the Pacers are going to be motivated to take care of business tonight against the Celtics.  I like their chances considering they are 19-11 at home this season, while the Celtics are 16-16 on the road.

The Celtics have been playing well lately, but they've done all of their damage at home.  The Pacers are 28-14 in their last 42 home meetings with Boston, and they've won four of their last five home meetings of late.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings as well.

There is one key injury for Boston here that is getting overlooked.  Jae Crowder will miss a couple weeks with a sprained ankle.  He usually matches up with superstar Paul George, but now the Celtics have nobody to defend him.  Look for George to have a monster game in leading the Pacers to a win and cover.

The Pacers are 22-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

15* Fairleigh/FGC 2016 NCAA Tournament Opener on Florida Gulf Coast -5.5

It’s been three years since Florida Gulf Coast (20-13) became the first No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. But now the high-flying Eagles are back. They won the Atlantic Sun Tournament after finishing second in the regular season standings behind North Florida.

Florida Gulf Coast is led by a trio of double-digits scorers. Leading the way is Marc Eddy Norelia, who averages 17.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while shooting 53.9 percent from the field. He is joined by Christian Terrell (12.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Zach Johnson (11.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) in double figures scoring.

Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14) played a very weak schedule, which ranked 298th in the country. It went 0-1 against the RPI top 100 out of conference. That was a blowout 54-91 loss at Villanova in their opening game of the season, but the Knights also lost to the likes of Army, Fordham, Delaware, Princeton, Temple and Rutgers out of conference.

Unfortunately for the Knights, they grade out as the worst defensive team in the entire 2016 field. They do force turnovers at an average of 15 per game, but they also give up 78.2 points per game on 45.2% shooting.

The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games since 1997. Florida Gulf Coast is 11-0 ATS in March road games since 1997. The Eagles are also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.

The Eagles are a very efficient offensive team that puts up 77.0 points per game on 47.7% shooting. They will have their way with a Fairleigh Dickinson team that gives up 78.2 points per game this season. Florida Gulf Coast can also defend, limiting opponents to 41.5% shooting on the season.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are a very profitable 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Florida Gulf Coast Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have lost two straight coming in with a 96-99 home loss to Minnesota, and an 85-93 road loss to San Antonio.  Look for them to get back on track in a big way tonight.

The Blazers come in overvalued because they have played well in the second half of the season.  But they have lost four of their last six games overall with all four losses coming on the road.  The Blazers are now 14-20 on the road this season, while the Thunder are 26-9 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight meetings.  That includes a 16-point win and an 11-point win in the last two meetings in Oklahoma City, and another double-digit home victory for the Thunder can be expected here.

The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Blazers are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to OKC.  The favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks are in desperate need of a win today to put an end to a 5-game losing streak.  They currently hold the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, just two games ahead of the Utah Jazz.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

The Mavericks are way undervalued right now due to this 5-game skid.  At the same time, the Hornets are way overvalued right now due to their 7-game winning streak coming in.  It's the perfect storm and has created some very nice line value on the Mavs +7 here.

Dallas has won 19 of its last 22 meetings with Charlotte overall.  The Mavs are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Charlotte while going 8-2 SU in their last 10 road meetings in this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

It's now or never for the Utah Jazz, who need to play perfect basketball down the stretch to make the playoffs.  They are 2.5 games behind the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Utah got back on track with an emphatic 114-93 home victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night.  I look for them to build off of that win and to take care of business against the lowly Sacramento Kings, who are well out of the playoff hunt.

The Kings have been playing like their season is done over the last several weeks.  They are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more.

Utah is 54-26 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons, including 26-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two years.  The Kings are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.  Sacramento is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Memphis/UConn AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

The UConn Huskies have played their way into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Cincinnati and Temple the last two days.  Now I look for the Huskies to take a breath, and to not play with the intensity they did the last two games with their tournament lives at stake.

Memphis is the team with its tournament life at stake.  The Tigers can only make the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday, and I look for them to fight, scratch and claw their way to a win and cover today as 5.5-point underdogs to the Huskies.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last.  It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight wins by 20-plus points.  The Tigers won by 30 at East Carolina, by 22 over Tulsa, and by 20 over Tulane.  They have had an easy go of it, while UConn played four overtimes against Cincinnati two days ago and will likely feel the effects of that today.

UConn is 2-10 ATS following three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 94-54 ATS in its last 148 games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) after 15-plus games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Memphis Sunday.

15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -3.5

The Kentucky Wildcats want revenge from a 77-79 loss at Texas A&M in their lone meeting this season.  I like their chances of getting it in blowout fashion today considering how well they are playing coming into this game.

Kentucky is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 9-point win at Florida as 4.5-point favorites, a 17-point home win over LSU as 13.5-point favorites, a 26-point win over Alabama as 13.5-point favorites, and a 13-point win over Georgia as 10.5-point favorites.

Kentucky is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite.  The Wildcats are 45-26 ATS in their last 71 games when revenging a road loss.  Kentucky is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 vs. SEC opponents.  The Aggies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Kentucky Sunday.

20* Conference Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas Little-Rock -4

Arkansas-Little Rock (28-4) has been the best team in the Sun Belt all season.  It has gone 18-3 in conference play this year, and now it is one win away from playing in the NCAA Tournament.  The Trojans aren't about to let this opportunity slip away by losing to LA-Monroe.

Little Rock is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four over the last two season.  Little Rock is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Trojans.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Orlando Magic +8

The Portland Trail Blazers are in a big hangover spot today from their 112-128 loss to the Golden State Warriors last night.  After playing the best team in the NBA, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face the Orlando Magic.

The Magic are still trying to make a push to make the playoffs at 28-36 on the season.  They picked up a big 107-100 road win at Sacramento last night, and now they'll carry that momentum into this game.  They had two days off before the Sacramento game, and they get two days off after this game, so look for them to be dialed in and focused.

The Magic have had the Blazers' number in recent meetings while winning two straight and three of the last four.  They won 102-94 as 4.5-point favorites in their most recent meeting, and 111-104 as 8.5-point dogs in the meeting prior.

Orlando is a sensational 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games.  The Magic are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 vs. NBA Northwest opponents.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Magic Saturday.

20* Virginia/UNC ACC Championship No-Brainer on North Carolina -1

I've successfully backed the North Carolina Tar Heels in each of their first two games of the conference tournament.  I'm going to continue riding them today against Virginia given the ease of which they've dismantled their first two opponents.

The Tar Heels opened with an 88-71 win as 7.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.  They were even more impressive yesterday, steamrolling Notre Dame 78-47 as 8-point favorites.  So they are going to be very fresh coming into this game against Virginia, which barely escaped with a 73-68 win over Miami yesterday.

The Tar Heels also want revenge on the Cavaliers after losing 74-79 at Virginia on February 27th toward the end of the regular season.  This time they will be playing on a neutral court, and they'll get their revenge with the way they are playing right now.

North Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* Thunder/Spurs ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8.5

Because the Oklahoma City Thunder were upset last night by the Minnesota Timberwolves, they come into this game against the San Antonio Spurs way undervalued as 8.5-point dogs.  It's time to jump on them while the betting public is down on them.

But that game against the Timberwolves was the ideal letdown spot for the Thunder.  They were coming off a big win over the Clippers on Wednesday, and they knew they had the Spurs on deck the next night.  It was a classic sandwich game, and the Thunder simply did not show up.  But after losing to the Wolves, they will be re-focused and ready to go tonight.

OKC is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games following a home loss, and 37-20 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +3.5

The UConn Huskies just played in a four overtime thriller yesterday.  It wasn't so thrilling for me as I had Cincinnati -1.  The Bearcats hit a 3-pointer to go up 3 with 0.8 seconds left, only for the Huskies to hit a miracle 60-footer and force a 4th overtime.  Of course, they went on to win the game after that.

But now the Huskies are going to be running on fumes today.  Their best players obviously played huge minutes yesterday.  Daniel Hamilton played 55, Sterling Gibbs played 54, Rodney Purvis played 49, Amida Brimah played 47, and Jalen Adams played 43.

Temple made easy work of South Florida in a 79-62 victory yesterday.  The Owls will be fresh and ready to go.  They will also be motivated to earn some respect, because they haven't been getting it all season.  They aren't getting it here, either, as 3.5-point underdogs to the Huskies when they should be favored.

Indeed, Temple won the American Athletic Conference regular season title with a 14-4 record.  The Owls beat UConn outright as underdogs twice en route to that title.  They won 63-58 as 5-point home dogs, and 55-53 as 10-point road dogs.  They are clearly the better team as they proven during the regular season, and now they are in a tremendous situation here given the Huskies going to 4 OT yesterday.

The Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Temple is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Owls are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.  Temple is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -1

The Old Dominion Monarchs have rolled through the Conference USA Tournament to make the Championship Game.  The ease of which they've won has me on them today as I look for their momentum to carry them to a C-USA title and a NCAA Tournament berth.

Old Dominion is playing its best basketball of the season, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  In the conference tournament alone, the Monarchs beat FAU by 26 as 10.5-point favorites, LA Tech by 16 as 3-point favorites, and Western Kentucky by 12 as 4-point favorites.  They aren't about to be denied now.

Middle Tennessee has to play in an exhausting 99-90 win over Marchall yesterday.  The Thundering Herd play at an extremely fast pace, and that up-and-down game will have taken its toll on the Blue Raiders here.  I also like the fact that Old Dominion will be out for revenge from a 3-point loss in the regular season, and a 7-point loss to Middle Tennessee in the conference tournament last season.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (OLD DOMINION) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on neutral court teams (OLD DOMINION) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on LSU +7

The LSU Tigers are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.  They took care of business in an 84-75 win over Tennessee yesterday in their SEC Tournament opener, and now I look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money today.

Texas A&M was fortunate to come away with a 72-66 victory over the Florida Gators yesterday.  I believe LSU is a better team than Florida, and that will show today as the Tigers keep this one close.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons as three of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, including a 76-71 win for LSU in their most recent showdown on February 13th.

The Aggies are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games.  Look for the Tigers to simply want this game more given what's at stake for them.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very bad spot here.  They are in a sandwich game and won't bring their best effort.  They just lost to Oklahoma City on Wednesday in their last game, and now they'll be looking ahead to Sunday's showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In between those two massive games, they must face the lowly New York Knicks.  The Knicks will be the team looking forward to this game.  They are playing better of late, too, winning in blowout fashion over Detroit (102-89) and Phoenix (128-97) in two of their last three games.

The Knicks are a sensational 18-9 ATS as road underdogs this season.  New York is 33-13 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Knicks are 26-16 ATS when revenging a loss in all games this season.  The Knicks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 227

Rarely do I take OVERs in the NBA, but I couldn't help myself tonight.  It's especially rare that I take an OVER when the total is this high like the 227-point total they have set for tonight's game between the Warriors and Blazers.  It's still not high enough.

One quick look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that they should have no problem exceeding 227 points.  They have combined for 242 and 236 points in their two meetings this season.  That's an average of 239 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than tonight's posted total of 227.

The OVER is 10-3 in Blazers last 13 games overall, including 5-0 in Blazers last five vs. Western Conference foes.  The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.  Portland is 8-1 OVER after a combined score off 225 or more points this season.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -1.5

South Carolina wants revenge from losing both meetings to Georgia this season, including a 72-74 heartbreaker on March 3rd about exactly a week ago.  Given this spot for the Gamecocks, I like their chances of getting the job done.

They need a win to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  But they also come in rested having last played on March 5th, while Georgia played yesterday in a 79-69 victory over Mississippi State.  That edge in rest and preparation, plus the revenge factor, makes me love the Gamecocks today.

South Carolina is 6-0 ATS in road games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  South Carolina is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games overall.  Take South Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure -2.5

Despite a 22-7 record that has included a 10-1 mark in its last 11 games overall, St. Bonaventure still finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Bonnies want to leave no doubt with a win over Davidson today.

Given the situation, I like their chances of getting a win and cover.  The Bonnies haven't played since March 5th, while Davidson played yesterday in a 78-63 victory over lowly LaSalle.  That edge in rest and preparation is huge for the Bonnies here.

St. Bonaventure has won both meetings with Davidson over the last two seasons, including a 97-85 home victory as 1.5-point favorites this season.  The Bonnies are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7

The North Carolina Tar Heels are showing excellent value as only 7-point favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish today.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight.

UNC made easy work of Pitt 88-71 yesterday.  Now it faces a tired Notre Dame team that needed overtime to beat Duke 84-79 yesterday.  That puts the Fighting Irish at a big disadvantage here.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N CAROLINA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 98-51 (65.8%) ATS since 1997.  UNC has actually lost three straight to Notre Dame by a combined 13 points and wants revenge here.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kentucky -12

The Kentucky Wildcats will be playing their first SEC Tournament game today and will make easy work of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are playing their 2nd game in 2 days after a 91-83 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.

It's s that Kentucky owns Alabama.  The Wildcats are 5-0 in the last five meetings, and they have won by 25, 16, 15, 22 and 7 points in those five.  The last four have come by an average of 19.5 points per game.  Take Kentucky Friday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1.5

The St. Joe's Hawks need a win to assure their spot int he NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are undervalued right now due to losing their final two games of the regular season as well.

What I really like about this game is that St. Joe's comes in rested having last played on March 5th, while George Washington played yesterday in a 73-65 win over lowly Saint Louis and will be the more tired team.

St. Joe's won 84-66 as 4.5-point dogs at George Washington in their only meeting this season.  The Hawks are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus board per game this season.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -1

The Cincinnati Bearcats have proven they are a better team than UConn twice this season in beating the Huskies.  I expect them to prove it for a 3rd time in the AAC Tournament today to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it has a huge advantage inside against Connecticut.  The Bearcats held the Huskies to 37.3% shooting in a 65-60 home victory, and 38.3% shooting in a 58-57 road win this year.

The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4

The Texas A&M Aggies come in rested and ready to go today against Florida.  The Aggies last played on March 5th, while Florida beat Arkansas 68-61 yesterday and will be playing a second consecutive day.

The Gators will now have to deal with arguably the best team in the SEC in Texas A&M.  The Aggies are playing very well right now, too, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  They also beat Kentucky by 2 at home.

Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Texas A&M Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -4.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -7.5

Analysis will be posted shortly

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +1

I faded UNLV with success yesterday by cashing in Air Force +11.  It was really never in doubt, but I did have to sweat out three overtimes as UNLV won a wild 108-102 game.  Now, the Rebels aren't going to have much left in the tank today for Fresno State.

UNLV starters Jerome Seagers (54 minutes), Ike Nwamu (55) and Patrick McCaw (55) will be particularly gassed.  That trio combined for 78 points yesterday against Air Force.  But there's no question in my mind that all three will have off shooting nights after what they went through last night in beating the Falcons.

At the same time, Fresno State comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th.  The Bulldogs (22-9) also come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including road wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah State.  The Bulldogs have won each of their last two meetings with UNLV as well.

The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Raptors UNDER 199.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  Indeed, the Hawks have allowed an average of 86.5 points per game in regulation while winning five of their last six games overall.  Having Thabo Sefolosha play bigger minutes has certainly been a key in that.

The Toronto Raptors get a lot of love for their offense, but they play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA at 95.4 possessions per game.  Their defense has been great all season, giving up 98.3 points per game overall and 97.8 points per game at home.

Recent meetings between would certainly suggest that the oddsmakers have set this total too high.  They have combined for 182, 185 and 199 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 188.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 188.7.

Toronto is 8-1 to the UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams who are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hawks last 14 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss -2.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 20-11 on the season, including 10-8 in SEC play, yet they are getting no love from Joe Lunardi and the bracket prognosticators.  But I've been riding this team all season, and I'll continue to do so in the SEC Tournament as they continue playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Ole Miss closed the season by going 4-1 in its last five games overall, so it comes in playing very well.  It also owns a 74-66 home victory over Alabama as 5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Rebels have one of the best players in the country in Stefan Moody, who averages 23.1 points per game.  He will have his way with Alabama once again.

I really do not like the mindset of Alabama right now.  Three weeks ago, it was safely in the NCAA Tournament.  But four losses in five games later, and the Crimson Tide are well on the outside with no chance of making it.  The Tide lost at home to Mississippi State and Arkansas, and their only win came against awful Auburn 65-57.  They also lost by 25 at Kentucky and by 7 at Georgia.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Rebels continue flying under the radar as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  They won by 23 at Tennessee in the regular season finale.  Bet Ole Miss Thursday.

15* Pac-12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -7

The Oregon Ducks were one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season, and they continue to be.  They went 25-6 overall and 14-4 in Pac-12 play to win the conference.  They also went 16-11 ATS in all games this year, and they come in on a five-game winning streak with all five victories coming by 8 points or more.

Yet the Ducks are only laying 7 points here to Washington in the Pac-12 Tournament.  Oregon comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th, while Washington will be playing a second consecutive day after dismantling Stanford 91-68 yesterday.

I believe that blowout victory has the Huskies overvalued here.  Remember, they had lost six of their previous eight games with their only two wins coming at home over Stanford and Washington State.  So, Oregon is playing better coming in, and it is more rested and prepared for this contest.

The Ducks are also playing to earn a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they aren't about to let up now.  They made easy work of the Huskies in their lone meeting this season, winning 86-73 as 11-point favorites.

The Ducks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon is 51-22-3 ATS in its last 76 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* Mountain West Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego State -7

The San Diego State Aztecs are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They are currently a No. 11 seed according to Joe Lunardi and could get bounced if they were to lose to Utah State in their opening game of the MWC Tournament.  It's safe to say the Aztecs will be dialed in and focused here.

It also helps that the Aztecs come in rested having last played on March 5th.  They made a statement to close out the season while finishing 16-2 in MWC play to run away with the conference title.  They won 83-56 at New Mexico as 1-point favorites, and then crushed UNLV 92-56 as 10-point home favorites in their final two games of the season.

At 16-14 on the season, Utah State is simply not very good.  The Aggies did blow out lowly Wyoming 88-70 in their MWC Tournament opener yesterday, but that win has them overvalued coming in.  It also means that the Aggies will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, which clearly puts them at a disadvantage against the rested and prepared Aztecs.

Simply put, San Diego State owns Utah State.  It is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Utah State over the past three seasons.  Dating back further, the Aztecs are 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings since 1997.  They have won the last five meetings by an average of 17.4 points per game.  SDSU is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Take San Diego State Thursday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB -6.5

Remember when UAB beat Iowa State as a No. 15 vs. No. 2 seed last year in the NCAA Tournament? Well, the Blazers brought all five starters back from that team, and they promptly dominated Conference USA this season with a 26-5 record overall and a 16-2 mark in conference action.

Now the Blazers must win the Conference USA Tournament to make the big dance again, so they will certainly be focused and ready to go today.  They come in rested having last played on March 5th, while their opponent in Western Kentucky just played yesterday in an 84-76 win over North Texas.

That edge in rest and preparation is a big reason why I like the Blazers today.  But another reason to love the Blazers is that this will be a home game for them played in Birmingham, Alabama.  UAB is 16-0 at home this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams as well.

UAB is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are arguably the best team in the country.  They went 25-6 this season and are playing to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I like their chances of winning going away against Pitt in their ACC Tournament opener Thursday afternoon.

The biggest reason to love UNC is that it comes in rested having last played on March 5th in a 76-72 road win over Duke.  Meanwhile, the Pitt Panthers just played a hard-fought game yesterday against Syracuse and won 72-71 to advance.

So, the Tar Heels have a massive edge in rest and preparation.  Also, I don't think this is a good spot for Pitt mentally.  That game against Syracuse was essentially a play-in game in terms of the NCAA Tournament as both were squarely on the bubble.  Now that they know they are in the big dance, the Panthers may let up here.  It's also not a good matchup for the Panthers, who lost 64-85 at UNC in their only meeting this season.

Pitt is 0-8 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game this season.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing UNC.  Also, the Panthers are 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.  Roll with North Carolina Thursday.

15* ASU/Oregon State Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -2

The Oregon State Beavers are currently the second team on Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out" line, which means they wouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated to put themselves on the right side of the bubble with a win over Arizona State Wednesday.

The Beavers have done their part here down the stretch by going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to Cal, Oregon and USC.  They also have road wins over Stanford and UCLA, as well as home victories over Utah, Colorado, Washington and Washington State during this stretch.  So, they are playing very well.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which was the second-worst team in the Pac-12 this season ahead of only lowly Washington State.  The Sun Devils went 5-13 in conference play this season with two of those victories coming against Washington State.  They are 1-5 in their last six games overall with four of those losses coming by double-digits, so they aren't playing well at all.

ASU is 2-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  The Beavers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oregon State Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +4

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a huge advantage coming into this game and should not be underdogs to Florida State.  They got to watch the Seminoles beat Boston College yesterday, which is 0-18 in ACC play this season.  They have the scouting advantage and the rest advantage coming in.

The Hokies finished with a winning record (10-8) in the ACC for the first time in the last five years this season.  Buzz Williams clearly has this program on the rise, and the Hokies are certainly playing their best basketball of the season coming into the ACC Tournament.

Indeed, Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those wins came by double-digits, including an 83-73 victory over this same Seminoles team as well as a 77-62 triumph over highly-ranked Miami in the regular season finale.

Florida State is 0-6 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season.  VA Tech is 14-4 ATS in all conference games this year.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be out for serious revenge on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Clippers on March 2nd exactly one week ago today to lost 98-103 on the road.

The Thunder were outscored 35-13 in the 4th quarter alone, and that memory is fresh in their minds.  It's safe to say that you can expect a huge effort from OKC tonight to try and avenge that defeat, this time at home.

The Thunder are 25-8 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 8.5 points per game.  They have had two days off since beating the Bucks 104-96 on the road, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  In fact, this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  The Thunder are 27-9-2 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday when they host the Detroit Pistons.  That's because they have lost three in a row coming in with two of those losses coming by a combined 5 points.  It's safe to say they are going to want to get back in the win column in a hurry.

In fact, going through the Mavs' entire season, I find that they have not lost four in a row at any point this year.  That shows that they have been a very resilient team, and it also shows that the chances of them losing four in a row now is highly unlikely.

This 3-game losing streak has the Mavs undervalued as only 2.5-point home favorites, and couple that with the fact that the Pistons are 5-2 in their last seven games and overvalued, and it's clear to see that we are getting the Mavs at a big discount at home tonight.  The Pistons are just 13-20 SU & 13-20 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in road games off a non-conference game this season.  Dallas is 102-67 ATS in its last 169 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Pistons are 5-17 ATS in road games vs. teams who allow 99-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Grizzlies/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -9

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now.  They are expected to be without their three best players tonight.  They were already without Marc Gasol, but now Mike Conley has been ruled out, and Zach Randolph is doubtful.  Not to mention Brendan Wright is out and Matt Barnes is questionable.

Somehow, the Grizzlies were able to beat the Cavaliers 106-103 on the road last time out without Gasol and Conley.  That is highly unlikely to happen again here against the superior Celtics.  That win over the Cavs also sets the Grizzlies up for a massive letdown spot.  After all, this team just lost at home 100-109 to lowly Phoenix prior to that Cavs game.

The Celtics just keep rolling along and not getting any love despite being one of the best teams in the East.  They have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a loss on the road to Cleveland, but you have to go all the way back to January 18-20 to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have also had three days' rest since that defeat to the Cavs, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

Memphis is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Boston is 50-33 ATS in its last 83 games when revenging a loss.  The Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Mountain West Tournament No-Brainer on Air Force +11

Simply put, the UNLV Rebels are not 11 points better than the Air Force Falcons on a neutral court.  That will show today as the Falcons give the Rebels a run for their money, possibly winning this game outright.

I realize this is more of a home game for UNLV, but I think they have over-adjusted the line for this game being played in Las Vegas.  The Rebels just can't be trusted witht he way they are playing right now.  They have a 12-point loss to Boise State and a 36-point loss to San Diego State in two of their last three games.

Air Force really came on strong toward the end of the season in going 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Falcons pulled off upsets wins over Wyoming (by 8) as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State (by 8) as 11.5-point dogs, UNLV (by 5) as 8.5-point dogs and New Mexico (by 4) as 8-point dogs during this stretch.

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost five of their last six games overall, but ended their 5-game skid with a 106-94 win in New Orleans last time out to get back on track.  It's also worth nothing that they are coming off a tough 4-game road trip.

But now the Jazz are well-rested and ready to get back on track having last played on Saturday.  They also return home where they are 19-12 on the season.  The Jazz are currently the 9th seed in the West, so they really need to get it going.  They are 1.5 games behind Houston for the No. 8 seed.

Conversely, the Atlanta Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit blowouts on the road against both Los Angeles teams.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public is going to be all over them, which is why this line is only -1.

Atlanta is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40% and 49% this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 175-120 (59.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston College +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Boston College Eagles right now.  That's because this team somehow managed to go 0-17 in ACC play.  But with that record comes zero expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers, which is why the Eagles are catching too many points here as 13-point dogs to Florida State.

The Eagles came very close to winning a couple games down the stretch.  They only lost 71-76 as 9.5-point home dogs to Georgia Tech, and then they lost 72-73 on a buzzer-beater as 15-point road dogs at NC State in two of their final three games.  They don't want to go winless in the ACC, so they will be laying it all on the line here with the pride factor against Florida State.

The Seminoles have no business being 13-point favorites against anyone in the ACC.  But they come in overvalued due to going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their final two games.  Remember, they had lost five straight prior to that stretch.  The Seminoles went 8-10 in ACC play this season, but only two of those wins came by more than 11 points.  They just don't blow anyone out.

This has been an extremely closely-contested series of late.  In fact, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and I believe this one will be, too.  The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss.  Take Boston College Tuesday.

20* NBA No Brainer on Grizzlies +12.5

Memphis has been playing a lot better recently, with the lone exception when they play the Suns.  But, yesterday was probably a lookahead to today's game, so I'm not too worried about the hiccup.  

Cleveland has won three in a row at home after their back-to-back road losses against Toronto and Washington, but this is a big number for them to be laying here tonight.  There were only favored by 16 over the Lakers back on February 10th and Memphis is definitely more than 3.5 points better than LA.

These two teams played back on October 28th with Cleveland winning by 30 points.  That puts us in a nice revenge spot here tonight as underdogs revenging a home blowout loss of 20+ points against an opponent off a home win are 49-22 (69%) over the last 5 years.  

I'll take the big number here as Memphis keeps this game close.

20* Big Ten No Brainer on Wisconsin +6

The Badgers are a different team from the one that lost by six at home to Purdue back on December 29th.  Since beating Michigan State on January 17th they really turned a corner, winning 11 of 12 games.  Their sole loss was to the Spartans, a team that is without a doubt the best the Big 10 has to offer.

The Boilermakers on the other hand have been over-rated by oddsmakers for too long.  Now just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, they continue to get too much respect here.  

Purdue hasn’t been turning teams over and that is going to give opponents too many opportunities to score buckets.  If you go back over the last four seasons, home favorites forcing 12 or less turnovers per game after four straight games forcing opponents to turn the ball over 11 times or fewer are 61-110 (64.3%) ATS.

15* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +1

I normally don’t love teams coming off a back-to-back, but it’s Portland who should be tired coming into this game.  The Blazers are playing their sixth road game in 9 nights, and while they have played well on the trip they have to be wearing down and looking forward to getting back home.

The Pistons have done surprisingly well in back-to-backs recently.  They dominated the Raptors 114-101 last week and pulled a 96-88 upset in Cleveland the time before that.  Detroit’s actually covered in four straight in this spot.

This is an important game for Detroit.  They blew one they should have won last night in New York, and if they have any intention of making the playoffs they need to get one back here on Sunday.  I think they respond with the win here.

15* Late Night Total Bailout on Clippers/Hawks Under 199.5

I think the oddsmakers have set the bar a little high for this total on Saturday night.  Atlanta has played solid defense all season long, giving up just 99.4 ppg to teams that are averaging 101.9, but in their last 5 games they have allowed on 90.4 while scoring 98.6.  That includes two games against the Warriors too, the other 3 teams didn't get past 88.

The Clippers are also dialing it up on the defensive end since the break.  They allowed 86 to the Spurs, 84 to the Suns, 87 to the Nuggets, 95 to the Nets, and 98 to the Thunder.  The only times they have given up 100 were to the Warriors and Kings.  Two teams that play a lot faster pace than the Clippers do.

Take the Under here tonight.

20* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal -5

Cal isn't getting enough respect in this game coming off their close loss at Arizona Thursday night while Arizona State is getting a little too much love after ending their four game losing streak against Stanford.

The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning 7 straight before that loss to the Wildcats and they have covered 8 straight games.  Arizona State on the other hand isn't very good, they haven't won as an underdog since December 16th, so I don't think we have to worry about the Sun Devils pulling an upset in this one.  

Cal has been dominating teams on the boards this year, averaging 40.1 to giving up only 33.  That puts us in a nice little situation Arizona State is just 11-22 ATS against teams who outrebound their opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

Take the Bears

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2

I like Washington to bounce back here tonight against Indiana.  The Wizards have been playing a lot better recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games.  Indiana on the other hand has now lost four of their last five after losing in Charlotte last night.

Washington beat Indiana by double digits on the road in mid-January which puts us in a nice situation here tonight.  The Pacers are just 1-11 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season.

Indiana has played a lot since the All-Star break, but they are only 5-13 ATS this season when playing their 8th game in two weeks.

Lot of factors point towards the Wizards tonight, so we will lay the 2 points.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +11

The Cyclones have been struggling recently, but I think they have a great shot at an upset against the Jayhawks on Satruday.  Iowa State has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head as they seem to have their number.

Kansas has already secured the top spot in the Big 12, and are over-valued in this spot after winning their last 11 games, covering 10 of those 11.  In fact, the Jayhawks haven't lost since their trip to Ames where they were a one point underdog.  A 12-point swing from away to home is a little too much, and I think Iowa State is showing some excellent value here catching double digits.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -3

It's senior day for the Baylor Bears and I think they come out ready to play here against West Virginia.  We are in must win territory as a third loss in four games would probably drop them down to a six seed come tournament time.

West Virginia has played very good this season but the road has been more difficult for them.  Plus, they have won the last three games despite allowing Iowa State to shoot 51%, shooting only 36.5% against Oklahoma State, and giving up 56.1% shooting against Texas Tech.  

I think Baylor will be able to handle the press in front of the home crowd and come away with a victory here today.

Take Baylor

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 210

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will play part in a defensive battle tonight.  That's what usually happens when these two teams get together, and looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that this 210-point total has been inflated.

The Celtics are known for shutting teams down, and they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they are 25th in the league as 95.9 possessions per game.  The Knicks are also just 21st in offensive efficiency.  They have been held to an average of 83.0 points per game in their last two, while the Celtics have allowed only 92.3 points/game in their last three.

The real key is the head-to-head history.  The Celtics and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer points in 20 of the last 21 meetings, including 186 points in their most recent meeting on February 2nd.  That makes for a 20-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 210 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -5

The Toronto Raptors are playing better than anyone in the Eastern Conference right now.  They are 19-4 in their last 23 games overall and have their sights set on catching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the East.

The Portland Trail Blazers are also playing well, but their recent run is more fools' gold than anything.  And now the Blazers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  I faded them against the Celtics in their last game, a 93-116 loss as 6.5-point underdogs.

I'll fade them again tonight because this remains a bad spot for the Blazers.  They are running on fumes right now as this will be their 6th road game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They started showing signs of wearing down in the 2nd half against Boston, and it will carry over into this game tonight as well.

The Blazers are 2-13 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -2.5

I have backed the Northern Illinois Huskies with plenty of success this season when playing at home.  I'll continue to do so tonight as they are only 2.5-point favorites over the Ball State Cardinals in a game that I believe they are going to run away with.

The Huskies have two huge reasons to be motivated.  First, it's their final home game of the season and Senior Night.  And second, they want revenge from a tough 59-63 loss at Ball State on February 19 just two weeks ago in their first meeting.  That was a rare loss in this series for NIU, which had won its previous four meetings with Ball State.

But the biggest reason to back Northern Illinois is the fact that it simply does not lose at home.  It is 16-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.2 points per game.  They have beaten several of the top teams in the MAC at home, including Akron, Ohio and Central Michigan.

The Huskies are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games.  Northern Illinois is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 49 games vs. MAC opponents.  The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.