15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 222

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  After combining for 240 points in Game 1, the Lakes and Grizzlies have combined for 196 points in Game 2, 212 points in Game 3 and 208 points at the end of regulation in Game 4.  I think the fact that Game 4 went to OT and finished at 228 is keeping this total higher than it should be, and there's tremendous value with the UNDER.

The Lakers have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break, which is the biggest reason for their resurgence.  They have held the Grizzlies to 112, 103, 101 and 104 points at the end of regulation in this series.  Memphis is a great defensive team as well with Defensive POTY Jaren Jackson Jr. anchoring them.  JA Morant being banged up also hampers the Grizzlies offensively.

The UNDER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings in Memphis.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavaliers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -5.5

I'll gladly back the more motivated Cleveland Cavaliers with their backs against the wall tonight against a New York Knicks team that can relax a little after taking a 3-1 series lead by winning both games at home.  This game will play out similarly to Game 2 when the Cavaliers bounced back from an upset home loss in Game 1 with a 107-90 blowout in a game that was never competitive.

Cleveland has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are 32-11 at home this season.  The Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The close out game is always the hardest, especially for a team like the Denver Nuggets that has been a disappointment in the playoffs for years under Nikola Jokic.  They failed to close out the Timberwolves in Game 4 and lost in OT, giving Minnesota new life.

I think the Timberwolves are a dangerous team now playing on house money catching 10 points against the Nuggets in Game 5.  They have been competitive in each of the last three games, which have all been decided by 9 points or less.  Game 1 can pretty much be thrown out because it was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves coming off a pair of play-in games and on little rest.

The Timberwolves are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 meetings in Denver.  The Nuggets are 21-35 ATS in their last 56 home games after playing a road game.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are simply the better team in this series.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  They are now 12-3 SU In their last 15 games overall and came up clutch just trying to make the playoffs, and that has carried over into the postseason.

The Grizzlies are missing key players in Steven Adams and Brandon Clark, which really hurts them defensively.  Dillon Brooks is a mad man whose head isn't in this series, and he's more concerned with his antics.  And JA Morant suffered a wrist injury in Game 1 that he's playing through, plus another injury in the final seconds of Game 3 to his lower leg that could hamper him heading into Game 4.

I think it says everything that Morant had 45 points in Game 3 and the Grizzlies were still never in that game or competitive.  They trailed 38-9 to start the game and most of his points came in garbage time with the game pretty much decided.  The Grizzlies don't have very good depth off the bench, while this is some of the best depth LeBron has ever had.  The Lakers actually increased their lead in Game 3 when he went to the bench.  Guys like Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder and Vanderbilt are playing very well to compliment LeBron and AD.

Memphis is 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  We'll continue fading the Grizzlies as road underdogs here as they have been a terrible team away from home all season, and I don't expect that to change in Game 4.  Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  The total for Game 1 was 224.5 and these teams combined for 189 points.  They lowered it to 222.5 and 222 for Games 2 and 3, which both went over, and now have raised it back up to 225.5 for Game 4.  That's too big of an adjustment, and there's clearly value on the UNDER as a result.

There's also value on the UNDER when you consider Minnesota and Denver won't be able to keep shooting as well as they have the past two games.  Denver shot 54.1% and Minnesota 50.6% in Game 2 and both shot better than 45% from 3.  Denver shot 57.1% in Game 3 and Minnesota 45.6%.  The Nuggets specifically can't stay this hot.

The pace has actually been very slow in this series, and it will be even slower in Game 4 as familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The longer a series goes, the harder points are to come by because teams know each other so well.

Minnesota is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 home games after going over the total in its previous game.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last seven Sunday games.  The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Timberwolves last 17 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Kings/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 237.5

The playoffs just have a way of slowing games down.  While both Sacramento and Golden State want to play fast, it's hard to when these teams get familiar with one another and know what to expect.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that has proven to be the case in this series.

After combining for 249 points in Game 1, the Warriors and Kings combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 211 points in Game 3.  So we have a lot of margin for error here with this 237.5-point total compared to the last two games.

The Kings have actually done a very good job of defending the Warriors in this series and have upped their game on that end.  The Warriors are a lot more locked in defensively in these playoffs, and they get their best defender in Draymond Green back.  Plus getting both Wiggins and Payton II back from injury has made them a better defensive team, and Kevon Looney is holding it down inside.

Golden State is 7-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or less this season.  Sacramento is 14-3 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 17-5-1 in Warriors last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

After winning Game 1 128-112 on the road, the Lakers relaxed in Game 2, especially with the Grizzlies without JA Morant due to a wrist injury.  They won't make the same mistake in Game 3, and I look for them to fire back with a blowout home victory in this one.

Dillon Brooks called LeBron James old after the Game 2 win.  You know LeBron won't take that lightly and will be fully locked in to make a statement, and his teammates will have his back.  The Lakers' role players have played well in this series, and I expect them to play even better at home to support LeBron and AD.

The Lakers are now 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall coming up clutch just to try and get into the playoffs.  They are showing how good they can be when healthy, which they are right now.  The Grizzlies are missing up to three key players if Morant doesn't return.  They aren't good enough to hang with the Lakers in this series given their current state, and especially not a 100% motivated Lakers team, which will be the case in Game 3 tonight.

Memphis is 2-14 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better this season.  The Grizzlies are just 16-25 SU on the road this season and have not played well at all away from home.  The Lakers have won six of their last seven at home.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +2.5

It's now or never for the Minnesota Timberwolves after falling down 0-2 in this series to the Denver Nuggets.  I expect them to fire back in Game 3 here at home.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four playoff games on the road and were competitive in two of them, taking the Lakers to OT in the play-in game and the Nuggets to the wire in Game 2.

But now the Timberwolves at back home where they were much more comfortable.  In their lone playoff home game, the Timberwolves crushed the upstart Thunder 120-95 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think they are getting disrespected here as home underdogs to the Nuggets and will make a statement.

Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are by far the superior team over the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have four stars in Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul compared to one for the Clippers in Kawhi Leonard, who is having to shoulder too much of the load for them.  They are relying on several guys past their primes including Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook.

Leonard had 31 points in Game 2 and the Clippers still lost by 14.  I think we are getting the Suns very cheap here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.  Kevin Durant is 22-2 SU in his last 24 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  The Suns are finally forming chemistry with him and will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  Los Angeles is 4-15 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Los Angeles.  The Clippers only went 23-18 at home this season and don't have that big of a home-court advantage.  Bet the Suns in Game 3 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 219.5

The Miami Heat lost their second-best player and the Milwaukee Bucks lost their best player to injury in Game 1 of this series.  Tyler Herro (20.1 PPG) suffered a fracture hand and is likely to miss the rest of the playoffs.  Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.1 PPG) suffered a back injury and is doubtful to play in Game 2.

Without these two, I expect points to be much harder to come by for both teams.  The total for Game 1 was 221 and now the total for Game 2 is 219.5, which isn't a big enough adjustment down for these two losses.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and as a series progresses the scoring slows down almost in every series.

The reason the total has stayed relatively high is because Game 1 was an offensive aberration that saw the Heat beat the Bucks 130-117 for 247 combined points.  Miami shot 59.5% as a team including a ridiculous 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's obviously not going to happen again.  I think the defense is much better in Game 2, and the shooting much poorer while also being played at a slower pace.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -7.5

That was a rare loss for Kevin Durant in Game 1.  Durant is 21-2 in his last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 after getting upset by the Clippers in Game 1 of this series.

A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back more motivated and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Suns are clearly the better team in this series.

The Suns only made six 3-pointers in Game 1.  You can expect them to make double-digits from 3 in Game 2 which will be a big difference in the result.  The Clippers remain without Paul George and I think that puts too much of a burden on Kawhi Leonard.  The Suns were dominant with Durant prior to that Game 1 loss.

Plays on any team (Phoenix) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland -5

The Cleveland Cavaliers got dominated on the boards in Game 1 which was their demise.  They lost the rebounding battle 51-38 and gave up 17 offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team on the season, so don't expect that to happen again.

I expect the Cavaliers to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 2 tonight.  A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back the more motivated team and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in this series.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five season.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - off two or more consecutive home losses in April games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Nets/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 3-pointers and had a 19-8 advantage in turnovers in Game 1 over the Brooklyn Nets to win by 20.  A lot went right for them in that game, and I don't expect it to be nearly as easy for them in Game 2.  I expect the Nets to take this game to the wire tonight.

The Nets are 144-97 ATS in their last 241 road games when revenging a loss.  Brooklyn is 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  Bet the Nets in Game 2 Monday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -7.5

The Phoenix Suns showed what they were capable of down the stretch when fully healthy and trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs.  They went 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS for a stretch with four wins by double-digits.  Kevin Durant is now 21-1 SU in his last 22 games played.

This would have been a great series if Paul George was healthy.  Instead, there's too much on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders now, and while he is a great player he isn't good enough to beat the Suns on his own.  He is going to be trusting too much in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon, two veterans on the downside of their careers.  Westbrook has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.

I think Durant is the better player than Leonard, plus Booker and Ayton are both better than anything the Clippers have. They won't be able to match up with Booker on the perimeter or Ayton inside as the Clippers are very weak in the paint with Zubac handling most the minutes.

The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  This rest is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Suns as they are now ready to make their playoff run as likely the best team in the West as currently constructed.  Bet the Suns in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Kings ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK

The Sacramento Kings will be making their first playoff appearance since 2006.  It's safe to say it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere for Game 1 of this series with fans ready to let out years of frustration in support of this team.

Mike Brown is the coach of the year leading the Kings to a 48-34 record this season and the 3rd seed in the West.  They have stayed remarkably healthy all season and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  I think they have a huge advantage over the Warriors when the backups are in as the Warriors lack the depth of years' past when they made NBA Finals runs.

Most just expect the Warriors to flip on the switch, but it's not that easy.  Andrew Wiggins returns but is going to be rusty after missing the past 25 games.  And the Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA all season, going 11-30 SU & 13-28 ATS on the highway.

Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Kings are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* Hawks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have come up clutch here down the stretch with these games mattering most.  They have gone 4-1 SU in games in which they were actually trying and not resting starters, including their dominant 116-105 win at Miami as 5.5-point underdogs in the Play-In to punch their ticket into the playoffs.

The Hawks are brimming with confidence now and ready to give the Celtics a run for their money in Game 1 of this series today.  The Celtics are getting a lot of love after making the NBA Finals last year.  But they kind of snuck up on everyone in the playoffs last year, and now they are the hunted instead of the hunters.  Asking them to win by double-digits in Game 1 to beat us is asking too much.  

The Hawks are actually more battle-tested and ready after playing a meaningful game earlier this week.  Boston hasn't played a meaningful game since April 4th and could be rusty to open this series as a result.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after upsetting the Pelicans 123-118 on the road last game.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are questioning themselves after blowing a double-digit lead and scoring just 16 points in the final 16 minutes in an OT loss to the Lakers.

The Timberwolves are also dealing with the Rudy Gobert distractions and some significant injuries heading into this one.  I think 5.5 points is too many for them to be laying against this up-and-coming Thunder team that has been consistently undervalued for two straight seasons and one that just has a knack for playing in close games.

The Thunder are 11-1 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Bulls/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

The Chicago Bulls come into this game with a ton of confidence after coming back from 19 points down to beat the Raptors last game.  I think they are once again catching too many points against the Miami Heat tonight after the Heat are questioning themselves after getting upset 105-116 at home by the Hawks in a game they were never really in.

Adding to the Bulls' confidence is the fact that they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Heat this season with three outright upset victories as underdogs.  It should be more of the same here as I expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Chicago is 14-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Miami is 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Playoff intensity defense is a different animal.  Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season.  But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS.  This is one of those totals.

The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the Bulls rank 18th, so this game will be played in the half court.  The Bulls have been improved defensively since getting Patrick Beverly and rank 3rd in defensive rating over the past 15 games.  The Raptors rank 5th in defensive rating over their past 15 games.

This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 202, 208, 217 and 212 points, respectively.  As you can see, these teams have combined to go UNDER this 213.5-point total in three of their last four meetings, and those were regular season meetings.  I'll be surprised if these teams come close to topping this 213.5-point total while playing with playoff-intensity defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 232.5

Playoff intensity defense is a different animal.  Teams go all regular season without playing much defense especially this season.  But it will be different in the playoffs, and I think we get some inflated totals early on we can take advantage of by backing UNDERS.  This is one of those totals.

The Lakers were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA after the All-Star Break.  The Timberwolves were great defensively down the stretch to try and get into the playoffs, allowing 108 or fewer points in five of their last eight games overall.

This has been an UNDER series.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings, including 213 or fewer in five of the seven.  This 232.5-point total has been set too high based on series history, plus when you factor in this game will be played with playoff-intensity defense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Timberwolves UNDER 227

Both Minnesota and New Orleans have a lot to play for today.  The winner will likely be the 8th seed while the loser will likely be the 9th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seed in the play-in round.  With so much at stake, defensive intensity in this game will be high.

The UNDER is 19-7 in Pelicans last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Pelicans last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Timberwolves last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Timberwolves last 15 home games.  Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER in home games following a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again.

Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here.  I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces.

Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night.  That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons.

The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.  

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and optimal odds to get the 1st pick in the draft.  They are no longer tanking to close out the season and trying to win these final couple games.  They pulled the 122-115 upset at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs last game, and I think they have a great shot to pull the upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Chicago today.

The Bulls have nothing to play for and are locked into the 10th seed.  They will be in the play-in round against the Raptors.  They are unlikely to play starters today as a result, and could care less about winning this game.  They should not be this big of favorites when they are unmotivated and just trying to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games following two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -8

The New York Knicks are locked into the 5th seed in the East and will play the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.  They could care less about winning these last two games.  Their three best players will sit tonight in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett.  They won't be competitive as a result.

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for still trying to get a Top 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are tied with the Lakers for 7th, one game back of both the Warriors and Clippers, and one game ahead of the Timberwolves.

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming up clutch again.  Now they will make easy work of the short-handed, unmotivated Knicks tonight.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors ML +105

The Boston Celtics are locked into the 2nd seed in the East and have nothing to play for.  There's a good chance they rest all their starters tonight.  They should not be favored over the Toronto Raptors as a result.

The Toronto Raptors are still battling for play-in positioning in the East one game behind the Hawks for the 8th seed.  There's a big difference between the 8th and 9th seeds.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team tonight to win this game outright as an underdog.

The Raptors have saved their best basketball for last as they are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with three of those losses coming to the top three teams in the East in the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics all by 7 points or fewer.  Toronto is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Friday.

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Heat are still playing to try to avoid the play-in round or at the very least earn the 7th seed which will give them the advantage in the play-in round. They are 1.5 games behind the Nets for 6th and 1.5 games ahead of the Hawks for 7th.

While this game means something to the Heat, it means absolutely nothing to the 76ers. They are locked into the 3rd seed in the East. Don't be surprised if they rest their starters over the final three games as a result. At the very least, they won't be motivated to win these games.

Miami is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia winning its last two trips to Philly outright as underdogs. Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Lakers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232

The Lakers and Clippers are tied for the 6th and 7th spots in the West. The 6th will avoid the play-in round, while the 7th won't so there is a lot at stake here. These teams hate each other as it is, and I expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one.

The Lakers have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break. The Clippers have been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA all season. This is a very high total considering what is at stake here.

The UNDER is 16-4-2 in Lakers last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 30-13 in Clippers last 43 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season just to make the playoffs and then gave the Phoenix Suns a run for their money in the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again this season, and that experience from last season is really helping them.

The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by 8 points or more and six of them by double-digits. Their lone loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

The Sacramento Kings are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the Pacific Division. They are also just kind of going through the motions right now essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the West. They just lost outright at home to the Spurs are 16-point favorites. This young team is not used to the pressure of playoff basketball and will not handle it as well as the Pelicans will tonight.

The Pelicans are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Kings with all three wins in blowouts by 32, 14 and 30 points. New Orleans is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% or higher this season. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls have saved their best basketball for last coming up clutch to not only make the playoffs, but to also try and improve their seeding. Now they have a chance to change spots with the Atlanta Hawks and move up again, and I think they take advantage with a blowout victory at home.

The Bulls are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are coming off a pair of blowout wins by 30 at Charlotte and by 21 at home over Memphis. They have won two of their three meetings with the Hawks with their lone loss coming by a single point at the buzzer.

The Hawks have been trading wins and losses and are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are without De'Andre Hunter (15.4 PPG) and Trae Young (26.2 PPG, 9.9 APG) tonight.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hawks are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games following a win. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back all season, especially of late. They continue to fly under the radar as this is a young, talented team with a very bright future and they continue showing up on a nightly basis.

The Magic are 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over the Knicks and Clippers. They were even competitive in all three losses losing by 3 at Phoenix, by 6 at the Lakers and by 5 at Memphis.

The Magic can stay within 5.5 of the Cavaliers at home tonight and possibly pull off the upset. Cleveland is just 18-21 SU on the road this season. They are kind of going through the motions right now basically locked into the 4th seed in the East. They are 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall losing at Atlanta, losing by 16 at home to the Knicks and only beating the depleted Pacers by 10 as 12-point home favorites. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.

San Diego State is lucky to be here.  The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each.  They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer.  FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.

Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass.  The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds.  San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.

But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department.  Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense.  These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.

I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times.  The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.

UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference.  It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game.  Bet UConn Monday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

This total is lower than it should be due to Denver coming off consecutive sub-par offensive showings while playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and playing without some of their best players.  Well, the Nuggets should have all hands on deck tonight with the possible return of Nikola Jokic.  I think it goes OVER the total whether or not he plays.

The Warriors rank 1st in the NBA in pace making them a dead nuts OVER team.  They are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and the in the bottom half in defensive efficiency.  They take on a Nuggets team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, which has been the key to their amazing season to this point.

Each of the two previous meetings this season between the Warriors and Nuggets were shootouts.  They combined for 251 points in their first meeting and 251 points again in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same in this third and final meeting Sunday.

The OVER is 40-13 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 20-8 in Nuggets last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season to the Boston Celtics when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have no had the last two days off to rest and recover and will come back pissed off after that defeat.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Bucks will be looking for revenge from a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia on March 4th in their most recent meeting.  It's a much worst spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.

The Bucks are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss and haven't lost consecutive games since January 12-14.  The Bucks only lead the Celtics by 1.5 games for 1st place in the East so they have no margin for error, also adding to their motivation.

Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -15.5

The Sacramento Kings are still looking to improve their playoff positioning as they trail the Grizzlies by two games for 2nd place in the West.  They are handling their business right now beating the Blazers by 40 and 24 points in their last two games.  Now they get another Western Conference bottom feeder in the Spurs tonight, and the result should be the same.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and tanking to try and get the No. 1 pick.  That's evident by the fact that all six losses came by 11 points or more including a 35-point loss at New Orleans, a 36-point loss at Milwaukee and a 44-point loss at Boston during this stretch.  They are resting almost all of their best players right now and are playing as a G League team.

The Kings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs.  San Antonio is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are battling to make the playoffs right now.  They are in 9th place in the West but just 2 games ahead of the Mavericks in 11th.  They have a great chance of improving their standing, and they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly today.

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.6 points per game.  Their last three losses have come by 24, 40 and 34 points.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Timberwolves.

This is a big step down in class for the Timberwolves after playing 16 consecutive games against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in round if the season were to end today.  They have won four of their last six games including upset road wins over the Knicks, Warriors and Kings.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Portland.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.

20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team.  The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury.

The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season.  New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5

The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now.  They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs.  They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result.

The Spurs are clearly tanking right now.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah.  They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors.

The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it.  They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management.  The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now.

San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season.  The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -14.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last eight losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 40 on Wednesday and by 17 in their two most recent meetings.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing all these players.

The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games with seven losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* Lakers/Timberwolves NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 232.5

The Los Angels Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing with playoff intensity as they are both trying to just get into the playoffs still.  That means the defensive intensity will be there, and I like the UNDER as a result.

The Timberwolves have struggled offensively getting Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert to mesh together.  They have scored just 99 points against the Warriors, 119 against the Kings and 100 against the Suns in their last three games.  But they have been elite defensively, allowing 96 to the Warriors, 115 to the Kings and 107 to the Suns which are three of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers have also stepped it up defensively of late allowing 118 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games.  The UNDER is 8-5 in their last 13 games overall.  With the way these teams are playing right now, this number is simply too high.

That's especially the case when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 228 or fewer points in all six and 213 or fewer in five of the six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 225.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace square off tonight when the Toronto Raptors visit the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Raptors rank 25th in pace while the 76ers rank 27th.  This game will be played with great intensity defensively as both are trying to improve their playoff positioning.

This has been a low scoring series as the UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 229 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings, including 212 or fewer in all six unders.  In their two most recent meetings this season, the 76ers and Raptors combined for 205 and 202 points.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 1.5 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  They Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

While the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency, the Denver Nuggets have plenty of margin for error.  They have a 3.5-game lead over the Grizzlies for 1st place in the West with seven games left.  They could decide to rest Nikola Jokic, who is very questionable with calf injury.  Either way, I like the Pelicans to stay within this 7-point spread given all the motivation factors.

Willie Green is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive team that allow 48% shooting or higher as the coach of New Orelans.  Plays against home favorites (Denver) - following two or more consecutive home wins in March games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic.  They are also expected to be without Reddish and Watford tonight, who are both listed as doubtful.

The Blazers are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Six of their last seven losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 18.6 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to face them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 17 in their most recent meeting.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing six of their best players.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games with six losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have the twin towers back now in Gobert and Towns together.  They struggled for much of the season offensively with these two healthy, but they were obviously much better defensively, and they play at a slower pace.  They are still trying to figure out ways to make their offense work with these two on the floor at the same time.

The Phoenix Suns recently got De'Andre Ayton back from injury and are much better defensively with him on the floor.  So both teams have their stud big men healthy right now, and there won't be a lot of easy buckets at the rim as a result.  I think this total has been set too high tonight given all the circumstances.

Both the Timberwolves and Suns are battling right now to try to avoid the play-in round in the West, and to just make the playoffs.  That means the defensive intensity will be there as this will feel like a playoff game, especially with it being broadcast on ESPN on National TV.  The Timberwolves held the Warriors to 96 points and the Kings to 115 points in their last two games on the road, while the Suns held the 76ers to 105 and the Jazz to 103 in their last two games coming in.

Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Phoenix is 20-10 UNDER when revenging a loss this season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Timberwolves last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls UNDER 227.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls will be playing for the 2nd time in 4 days.  The Bulls won the first meeting 118-108 for 226 combined points.  That total was set at 224.5, and now this total is set at 227.5, a 3-point adjustment up that is unwarranted.

That first meeting was played at a snail's pace but both teams shot great with the Bulls shooting 54% and the Lakers shooting 50.7%, and it's unlikely they'll shoot that well again.  The Lakers and Bulls have now combined for 226 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.

The Bulls have been great defensively since trading for Patrick Beverly.  He doesn't provide much offensively, but he makes them much better defensively.  They are allowing just 105.7 points per game in their last six games.  Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now, so the defensive intensity will be there.  It was going to be there anyway with that first meeting being very chippy a couple nights ago.

The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Lakers last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Bulls last 15 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season behind Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum just to get into the playoffs.  They are coming up clutch again behind these two with their season on the line trying to make the playoffs again this year.

Indeed, the Pelicans have saved their best basketball for last, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 points per game.  Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but that is mitigated by the fact that they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter of a 124-90 blowout win in Portland.

The Pelicans will be plenty fresh tonight, and they'll have no problem getting up to face the defending champs, who they trail by just a 0.5 games in the standings.  The Warriors have been overvalued all season, especially of late going 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes an upset home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves as 6.5-point favorites last time out.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2

I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB.  Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.

Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites.  That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.

One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas.  Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team.  Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas.  They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.

The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win.  UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road.  Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested.  Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs.  The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here.  They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58.  But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out.  Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.  

This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8.  Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +1

Note: I released this play before the news of Luka Doncic having his 16th technical rescinded, thus being able to play tonight.  I would still make this a 20* play at the current line of Pacers +4.  The Mavericks have been terrible with or without Doncic, and he will be on tired legs.  I still think the Pacers win this game outright.

The Indiana Pacers are still fighting to stay alive for a play-in spot in the East.  Five of their last six games have come against playoff teams and all on the road, and they managed to win two of them as 12-point dogs at Milwaukee and 9.5-point dogs at Toronto.  Now the Pacers are back home here for just the 2nd time in their lats nine games.

The Pacers are 19-17 SU & 21-14-1 ATS at home this season and welcome the hapless Dallas Mavericks, who are falling apart at the seams.  They just they lost four consecutive games including back-to-back losses to the Hornets as 15.5-point home favorites and 12.5-point road favorites.

Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical foul yesterday against the Hornets and scored 40 points in the process.  But now they won't have his scoring because he has been suspended for this game, terrible timing for the star player on a team that is currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs.  I just don't trust this team at all right now as they are simply imploding.

Rick Carlisle has stuck it to his former team with the Pacers after he got fired by the Mavericks.  The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Dallas.  He would love nothing more than to deal them another blow to their playoff hopes.  The Pacers had yesterday off, while the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.

Dallas is 5-17 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS as road favorites this season.  Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* Grizzlies/Hawks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 243.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone for 244 or more combined points in six of their last seven games overall, so this 243.5-point total isn't that high for them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team now that they have JA Morant back from suspension.  In their two games since he returned, they combined for 255 points and 265 points in their two meetings with the Houston Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 220.5

The Washington Wizards are going to be without two of their top three scorers in Bradley Beal (23.2 PPG) and Kyle Kuzma (21.2 PPG) today.  They could be without 4th-leading scorer Monte Morris (10.2 PPG), who is questionable.  They will struggle to score points today, and this game will be played at a snail's pace against the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors rank 25th in pace this season while the Wizards rank 23rd.  The Raptors also have injury concerns of their own with two of their top five scorers questionable in Gary Trent Jr (17.7 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG).  Both teams will have to rely on defense to try and win this game.

The UNDER is 15-7 in Wizards last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Wizards last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight.  Three starters played at least 34 minutes last night in their upset win over the Miami Heat in Bridges, Dinwiddie and Claxton.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight for Orlando, and this is now a bit of a letdown spot for them.

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the second half of the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes an upset road win over the Clippers, a 3-point loss at Phoenix, a 6-point loss at LA Lakers, a 10-point home win over the Wizards and a 5-point home win over the Knicks.  Now they come in rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is getting too much respect off that upset win at Miami last night.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* Miami/Texas Elite 8 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in the Elite 8 in Kansas City when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas Longhorns.  You would be hard-pressed to find two teams with a better trio of guards in the country than these two.

Miami has put up 85 points on 48.6% shooting on Indiana and 89 points on 51.7% shooting against Houston in its last two games.  That was the most points Houston allowed all season by 12 as their previous high was 77.  Isaiah Wong (16.3 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG) and Nijel Pack (13.8 PPG) are arguably the best trio of guards in the country.

Texas has put up 71 or more points in four consecutive games, including 76 against Kansas, 81 against Colgate and 83 against Xavier.  Marcus Carr (15.8 PPG), Sir'Jabari Rice (12.9 PPG) and Tyrese Hunter (10.4 PPG) can match Miami score for score.  And they may not have big man Dylan Disu, which would hurt them defensively because he is their best rim protector.  Miami is a terrible defensive team and relies on outscoring opponents to win.

Texas is 18-3 OVER in its last 21 games against ACC opponents.  The OVER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 NCAA Tournament games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Mavs/Hornets NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5

Sunday UNDERS in these early start time games have been gold over the years.  Teams aren't used playing this early in the day, and they seem to be sleep walking through the game.  They don't look to push the tempo as much, either.

The Mavericks aren't a good defensive team right now, but their intensity on defense will be there as they are close to missing the playoffs.  The Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing La'Melo Ball to injury.  Now they are likely to be without Terry Rozier, who is doubtful, and could be without Kelly Oubre Jr. who is questionable.  That's their three best guards and without those three they will struggle to score.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Hornets last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 230 or fewer combined points in 14 consecutive games, making for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225

The Los Angeles Clippers are now an UNDER team without second-leading scorer Paul George (23.8 PPG).  They are having to slow it down and run their offense through Kawhi Leonard.  Five of their last seven games have seen 221 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 5-2 during this stretch.

The New Orleans Pelicans have been even more of an UNDER team without Zion Williamson.  They are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

Both teams are fighting to make the playoffs here as the season comes to an end, so the defensive intensity will be there.  And this has been an UNDER series of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 203, 206, 219 and 202 combined points.  The UNDER is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in the six unders, and only 227 in the lone over.

The UNDER is 30-11 in Clippers last 41 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five road games.  The Clippers are 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a team that wins 40-49% of their games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn ML -130

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.1 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 3rd-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston and Alabama ahead of them.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.

The Huskies have been the most impressive team in the tournament to this point.  They beat Iona by 24, St. Mary's by 15 and Arkansas by 23. That means they will still be very fresh for this game against Gonzaga because they didn't have to work too hard in the 2nd half against Arkansas Thursday night.  

Gonzaga just survived against both TCU and UCLA to get here.  They beat TCU by 3 and UCLA by 3.  They also played the late game Thursday night, so they have even less rest than UConn heading into this one.  I like backing the team that played the early game because they get the chance to watch their opponent after winning and get a head start on the scouting.

Gonzaga also benefited from TCU being without its best big man, and UCLA being without two starters in G Clark and F Bona.  Drew Timme had huge games against both of those teams to lead the way, but things aren't going to come so easy against UConn.  The Huskies rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in 2-point percentage and 25th in block percentage.  They have three stud big men who can contain Timme.

UConn also ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage, getting 38.9% of their own misses.  Gonzaga is an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  The Bulldogs are 73rd in adjusted defense and 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  The Huskies are going to own them on the boards and limit Timme, which is going to be key to them getting this win.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team in this matchup.

UConn is 13-1 ATS in none-conference games this season.  Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  UConn is 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 12 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  The Huskies continue rolling right into the Final 4 with a win here.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing.

Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota.  Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight.

Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Their lone win came at home against the Magic by 3 as 8-point favorites.  They lost on the road to the Lakers by 11, the Warriors by 11 and the Thunder by 4.  They also lost at home to the Bucks by 12 and the Kings by 9, so they have rarely even been competitive of late.  It's too much on Devin Booker's shoulders and he can't carry the load.

The Kings should be more than 3-point home favorites tonight considering they are fully healthy and playing well.  They also come in off consecutive losses and will be motivated for a victory, plus they come in on two days' rest.  The Kings can inch closer to winning the division tonight, and it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at home tonight as Sacramento fans absolutely love this team, especially when they are in contention.

The Kings are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight.  Bet the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The Chicago Bulls are battling here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs.  They are currently 10th in the East and in the final play-in spot.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Kings and 76ers.  They upset the 76ers as 8.5-point road dogs and upset the Nuggets as 9-point road dogs during this stretch.

Now the Bulls take on the hapless Portland Trail Blazers, who are simply going through the motions here down the stretch as they have been all but eliminated from the playoffs.  The Blazers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with five losses by 14 points or more.  They are without Simons and Grant right now and could be without Nurkic, leaving way too much on Damian Lillard's shoulders to handle.

The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four home games losing by 11, 14, 15 and 16 points.  They have zero home-court advantage right now as the fans have given up on this team this season.  I'll gladly back the more motivated, healthier Bulls tonight.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Xavier/Texas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -4

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won six consecutive games and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a pair of blowout wins over Kansas by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament and by 16 at home.

The Longhorns now go back to Kansas City for the Sweet 16, a familiar venue for them as they just won the Big 12 Tournament there by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6 and Kansas by 20.  They are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City, and their familiarity with the venue is a hidden advantage as it will feel like a home game for them.

Xavier is overvalued after an easy path to the Sweet 16.  They needed a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes against Kennesaw State to win 72-67.  Then they beat a Pittsburgh team 84-73 that arguably shouldn't have even been in the NCAA Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for Xavier compared to what they have faced thus far, while Texas fended off a red hot Penn State team that was playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch.

Texas has no weakness ranking 5th in KenPom at 15th in adjusted offense while 10th in adjusted defense.  Xavier is an elite offensive team, but they struggle on the other end ranking 64th in adjusted defense.  I always like backing the better defensive team in the NCAA Tournament given the choice.  Dylan Disu will dominate the paint in this one.  He is shooting 72.2% while averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament.  The Musketeers have nobody inside that can match up with him, plus Texas has three elite guards which wins in the tournament as well.  Bet Texas Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bulls and 2 games behind the Raptors for the final two play-in spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers are coming off a 118-114 win at Toronto as 9.5-point dogs without Tyrese Haliburton.  There's a decent chance they get him back tonight, which would mean they are at full strength.  But they have been a money maker even without him, going 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics as it's their first game back home following a six-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions to deal with at home, and it tends to be a flat spot.

The Pacers are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with two outright wins as 9.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss as a 15-point dog and a 4-point loss in OT as a 7.5-point dog.  It's safe to say the Pacers match up very well with the Celtics, and getting 12.5 points is too much tonight.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* San Diego State/Alabama Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -7

I've faded the Mountain West with success for years in the NCAA Tournament.  It work out well with all teams not named San Diego State this season, but the Aztecs will be taking a big step up in class here against the most complete team in all of college basketball.

The Mountain West is 2-13 SU & 2-13 ATS in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountain West is also 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in the last six Sweet 16 games.  This conference has been grossly overvalued for years, and the Aztecs aren't about to break that trend in the Sweet 16 here.  They beat two of the worst teams in the tournament in Charleston and Furman to get here.

Now they face an Alabama team that ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense.  They have no weaknesses.  San Diego State ranks 70th in adjusted offense and doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide if they fall behind.  Maryland tried to muck it up last round against Alabama and was blown out 73-51.  San Diego State will try to muck it up too, but they just aren't on the same level as Alabama.

These teams have a common opponent in Arkansas.  San Diego State lost 78-74 to Arkansas on a neutral, while Alabama won both meetings with the Razorbacks by a combined 18 points this season.  If Arkansas got 78 points on them, Alabama can certainly do more damage offensively as they are much better shooting team than the Razorbacks.

This will feel like a home game for Alabama being played in Louisville, Kentucky while San Diego State has to travel clear across the country here.  Alabama is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season, winning by an average of 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points and are getting way too much respect following the blowout win over Furman.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 233

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Thunder and Clippers.  The Thunder won 101-100 for just 201 combined points on Tuesday, so we have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch Thursday night to keep this one UNDER this inflated 233-point total.

This has been an UNDER series as it is.  In fact, the Clippers and Thunder have combined for 230 or fewer points in 15 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 233-point total.

The Clippers were already an UNDER team ranking 24th in pace this season, and now they just lost Paul George (23.8 PPG) to injury in that game Tuesday after he had 18 points in 34 minutes.  They struggled without him going iso ball with Kawhi Leonard, and George could be out for the season, which is a huge blow to them offensively and puts an even bigger load on Leonard's shoulders.

These teams are both fighting to make the playoffs right now so the defensive intensity will be there again tonight.  The UNDER is 30-10 in Clippers last 40 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Gonzaga/UCLA Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga +2

The UCLA Bruins are without their best defensive player in Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG).  Adam Bona (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton (9.1 PPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the Round of 32 and is very questionable to play against Gonzaga.

The Bruins were able to survive a 68-63 scare from Northwestern last round, but they won't be so fortunate as they take a big step up in class here against Gonzaga while dealing with all these injuries.  The Bulldogs have made relatively easy work of both Grand Canyon and TCU, but the Horned Frogs made a late comeback to make the final score seemed closer than it really was.

Gonzaga comes in playing its best basketball of the season riding an 11-game winning streak.  That includes a pair of dominant wins over St. Mary's 77-68 at home and 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game.  St. Mary's plays a similar grind it out style to UCLA.

UCLA is ranked 3rd in KenPom right now, which has them inflated as a favorite here.  But they aren't the 3rd-best team in the country.  I would have a handful of teams ranked ahead of them, including Gonzaga given their current injury situation.  And UCLA hasn't seen an offense as potent as Gonzaga all season.  The Bulldogs rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage.  They are also 12th in turnover rate so they don't beat themselves.  They shoot 38.4% from 3 and 52.6% from 2 while averaging 87.3 points per game.

This game will be played in Las Vegas, and Gonzaga just won the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas.  They always get tremendous fan support there and it will feel like a home game for them.  UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams that shoot 48% or better, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5

Everyone was on Duke last week including myself.  But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out.  They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.

Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke.  But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic.  The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler.  They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin.  That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.

Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.  Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both.  North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is.  So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.

The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country.  They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament.  I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue.  Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.

FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them.  That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70.  Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.

KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd.  Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued.  The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense.  They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.

Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Pelicans UNDER 226

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing star PG La'Melo Ball to a season-ending injury.  They are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall, combining for 224 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  That would make for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 226-point total.

The New Orleans Pelicans are also a dead nuts UNDER team without Zion Williamson.  They are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 12 of their last 17 games overall.  This total is too high based on how both these teams have been playing for over a month now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.

Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas.  But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue.  KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season.  Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom.  That's value.

The matchup is a good one for the Huskies.  Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team.  They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.  UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%.  They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.  

Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn.  Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding.  Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament.  UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Bet UConn Thursday.

15* Suns/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Yet the Suns continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a Lakers team that needs wins like blood right now trying to make the Western Conference playoffs.  It's also a Lakers team that is fully healthy with the exception of LeBron James, and unlike the Suns, they are deep enough to still win without him.

The Lakers are 9-5 SU & 8-5-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup and is playing well as the Lakers have scored 108 or more points in eight consecutive games now.  Anthony Davis is playing like the superstar they need him to be and will dominate tonight not having to face Ayton, and the role players are all doing their parts as well to try and get this team into the playoffs.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs right now in 10th place in the West just a half-game ahead of both the Lakers and Pelicans.  They have come up clutch going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 4 points apiece to the Mavericks and Heat, both on the road in games they covered.

They have done this despite missing both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton.  Lauri Markkanen has even missed some games, but he is upgraded to probable tonight.  The Jazz are showing they are much deeper than they get credit for, and I know I'm going to get max effort from them tonight given what they've shown of late and their current standing.

I also think it's safe to assume we are going to get a below average effort from the Blazers, who just seem to be going through the motions right now 4 games out of a playoff spot.  The Blazers are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 22 at Boston, by 17 at New Orleans, by 16 at home to New York, by 16 at home to Boston and by 15 at home to the Clippers.

As you can see, the Blazers haven't even been competitive during this six-game losing streak.  They are without two of their top three scorers right now in Anfernee Simons (21.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jerami Grant (20.5 PPG), and Damian Lillard has been voicing his frustration in the media.  It's just a really bad look for the Blazers right now, and there's no reason to believe they are going to show up tonight.

Utah is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games coming in.  The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Utah is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK

Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.

Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far.  I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley.  We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.

I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here.  I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead.  The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 231.5

JA Morant makes his return from suspension tonight for the Memphis Grizzlies and will be looking to put on a show.  The Grizzlies will be without one of their best defenders in Dillon Brooks, who is serving a one-game suspension for getting his 16th technical foul.  They were already without two other plus defenders in Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams.  All these factors make Memphis an OVER team in the immediate future.

The Rockets are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tate (9.1 PPG).  Their starting 5 of Green, Porter Jr., Sengun, Smith Jr. and Martin Jr. are all healthy and playing well.  The Rockets have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and have scored at least 107 points in nine of those 10 games.  They will get enough against Memphis to help get this OVER the total.

Houston is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 road games after going under the total in its previous game.  This number is too low based on how Memphis has been playing of late without Morant.  They get back to being a high-octane offensive team with him back in the lineup now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are getting healthier and trying to make one final playoff push.  They are 2.5 games back of the Bulls for 10th and 3 games back of the Raptors.  Well, they get to play the Raptors tonight with a chance to cut into that deficit.

The Pacers clearly match up well with the Raptors.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them this season winning 118-104 and 122-114.  There's a chance the Raptors are without Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.7 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Asking the Raptors to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and earn a spot in the Western Conference playoffs.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with six wins by 9 points or more and are currently the 9th seed in the West and one win away from getting back to .500 on the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers are also playing better of late but it's not like they are blowing out the opposition.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three wins by 8 points or fewer, and an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic as 6.5-point favorites.

The Thunder have the rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Thunder have owned the Clippers, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with four outright upsets, including two in two meetings this season.

The Clippers are 2-12 ATS in home games following a road game this season.  The Thunder are 14-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

I like the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They come in on three days' rest last playing on Friday.  There's a good chance they are fully healthy tonight as C Jarrett Allen has been upgraded to questionable, and everyone else is a go for the Cavaliers.

They should be bigger favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 14 at OKC, by 5 at home to the Kings and by 6 at home to the Nuggets.  They aren't on the same level as the Cavaliers right now.

Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Nets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +4.5

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season.  Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Sweet 16.  That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas has been dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  Oklahoma State has been much more lackluster, beating Youngstown State by 5 and Eastern Washington by 11.  I think the Cowboys get caught here and lose this game outright to the Mean Green, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Cowboys are 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  The Mean Green are 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  North Texas is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets +11

The Golden State Warriors are 0-11 SU & 0-11 ATS in their last 11 road games with nine losses by 8 points or more.  They have rarely even been competitive on the highway.  The Warriors are now 7-29 SU & 9-27 ATS on the road this season.  In what world should they be double-digit road favorites against anyone?

The Houston Rockets are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late and will relish this opportunity to face the defending champs.  I think that's a big reason for Golden State's road struggles this season is they get the opposing team's best effort, plus games are usually close to being sold out with them coming to town.  It's an even bigger home-court advantage than normal.

Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with three outright upsets over Boston, the Lakers and Pelicans.  They came back and lost to the Pelicans last night, but that was a letdown spot after beating them two days earlier.  It was also a lookahead spot with the Warriors on deck.  They will be back to being locked in for this game tonight.

Houston has lost just one of its last nine games by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 3-13 ATS as road favorites this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following four consecutive games where they went under the total.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls sit in 10th place in the East and in the final play-in spot.  They are just 1.5 games ahead of both the Pacers and Wizards for that spot.  They are clearly fighting hard to try to make the playoffs with the way they have been playing of late.

Indeed, the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall winning by 21 as 9-point dogs at Denver, by 8 at Houston, by 8 at home over Minnesota and by 14 at home over Miami after playing the second of a back-to-back.  Their lone loss came by 3 at home to the Kings on a buzzer-beater.  The Kings are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They followed up a five-game road trip with a buzzer-beater 120-119 home win over the Blazers, who are playing terrible right now.  The 76ers now return home from a three-game road trip before going back on the road for four more games.  There will be distractions to deal with at home with so many road games of late and coming up that I think we get a flat effort from the 76ers here.

Chicago is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog.  The Bulls won 126-112 as 4.5-point road dogs in their last trip to Philadelphia on January 6th.  This number is inflated tonight folks.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* Creighton/Baylor TBS ANNIHILATOR on Baylor PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games to close out the season.  They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them.  They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.

A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG).  But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State was actually a good thing because it gave his ankle even more time to rest.  Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.

I took advantage and backed Baylor as a top play as 10.5-point favorites in a 74-56 win over UC-Santa Barbara in the opener.  And I'll 'buy low' on them again as a PK against Creighton as they are clearly the better team in my opinion, and they'll win this game comfortable.

Creighton has been overvalued all season after opening the season ranked in the Top 10 and considered a national title contender.  All they have done is disappoint, including a 22-point loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament.  They needed a late surge to beat a bad NC State team that had no business being in the NCAA Tournament anyway in the opening round.  

They were life and dead with the Wolfpack despite them shooting just 3-of-14 (21%) from 3.  Baylor won't let them off the hook like NC State did.  The Bears make 10 3's per game at a 37.1% clip on the season.  They rank 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 31st in 3-point shooting.  Creighton ranks 167th in defending the 3-pointer.

Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.  I believe the Bears have the coaching advantage with Scott Drew over Greg McDermott as well, and that's key with these teams only having a day to prepare for one another.  I'll side with the tougher Big 12 over the weaker Big East in this matchup as well.  Bet Baylor Sunday.

20* St. Mary's/UConn TNT No-Brainer on UConn -3

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.0 PPG), Newton (10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Karaban (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.

What I don't agree with is KenPom having St. Mary's ranked 12th, which is why the Gaels get so much respect from the books.  But they lack the athleticism of UConn and will struggle to defend them and to score against their length.  The Huskies rank 28th in average height.  They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and their ability to win the battle on the glass will be a key factor here.

UConn is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  UConn is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  St. Mary's is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  

This is essentially a home game for UConn being played in Albany, NY.  St. Mary's had the furthest travel of any team in the NCAA Tournament from the West Coast to the East Coast.  That's another hidden factor in favor of the Huskies here, and I don't think it's being priced into this number enough as they are clearly the better team as well.  Bet UConn Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets ML +105

The Denver Nuggets have been in a fog since the All-Star Break.  It's like they won the championship for having the best record in the West going into the break.  They still have a 3.5-game lead over both the Kings and Grizzlies, so they still aren't playing with a sense of urgency.

The Nuggets are now 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with upset losses to the Raptors are 6-point favorites, the Bulls as 9-point favorites, the Spurs as 13-point favorites, the Nets as 9-point favorites, the Raptors as 2-point favorites and the Knicks as 1-point favorites.  Their only win and cover came in comeback fashion over the lowly Detroit Pistons only after a big 4th quarter.

Now the Nuggets are favored once again when they shouldn't be, especially given the spot.  Denver will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.  They lost 110-116 to the Knicks on Saturday, and now they'll fall to the Nets again on Sunday.

This is a great spot for the Nets, who come in on two days' rest after a home loss to the Kings which followed up a five-game road trip.  That first game back home is always a tough spot.  But the Nets will get back to how they were playing before as they are now 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Denver is 0-8 ATS in road games following four consecutive games where they shot 47% or better.  Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS In its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Nets on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1

The Phoenix Suns are without two of their best players in Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton right now.  It's no wonder they are struggling as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming over the Magic by 3 as 8-point home favorites.  They lost by 9 at home to Sacramento, by 11 at Golden State and by 12 at home to Milwaukee.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most underrated team in the NBA for two seasons running now.  They are legit playoff contenders this season and fighting hard to make the postseason right now.  The Thunder have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with both losses coming on the road.  Amazingly, all six wins came by 9 points or more.

One of those losses came to the Suns on the road, but that was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off a home win over the defending champion Warriors.  So they were tired and in a letdown spot, while Phoenix was on two days' rest.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat out that game as well.  Now it's the Thunder that are on two days' rest coming into this revenge spot.

Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  The Thunder are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 Sunday games.  Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Kentucky/Kansas State CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky ML -125

As is the case with most John Calipari teams, the Kentucky Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  But it's usually due to so many freshmen playing and getting better.  This is a rare veteran Kentucky team that is playing like a Final 4 contender.

Kentucky has gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with both losses coming to Vanderbilt, a team that matches up well with them and is as hot as almost anyone down the stretch.  I also think Kentucky took them lightly.  They have road/neutral wins over Arkansas by 9, Providence by 8, Florida by 8 and Mississippi State by 3, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 12 and Auburn by 32.

This will feel like a home game for Kentucky in Greensboro, NC as their fans travel well everywhere, and it's only about a 6 hour drive.  It's 16 hours from Manhattan, KS to Greensboro for Kansas State fans.  

A key factor here is that Kentucky ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding, and Kansas State is a terrible rebounding team ranking 219th in allowing offensive rebounds.  They are also a short team ranking 312th in average height, so Kentucky's ability to dominate the glass will be a key factor in them winning this game.  Bet Kentucky on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Maryland/Alabama TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -8

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in the country, period.  They are still very fresh right now as they have won four consecutive blowouts en route to winning the SEC Tournament and advancing to the Round of 32.  They beat Mississippi State by 23, Missouri by 11, Texas A&M by 19 and Texas A&M CC by 21.

The fact that they're still fresh is why I'm willing to lay the 8 points here with them against Maryland.  The Terrapins needed a double-digit comeback to beat West Virginia 67-65.  That was more WVU bad than Maryland good, and I think the Terrapins are getting too much respect for that win.  Alabama should be favored by double-digits here.

That was a rare win for the Terrapins away from home. They went 2-9 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against two of the worst Power 5 teams in college basketball in Minnesota and Louisville. This will essentially be a home game for the Crimson Tide being played in Birmingham.

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Crimson Tide have a big coaching advantage with Nate Oats over Kevin Willard today as well.  I trust Oats to get his team ready for this game in only two days over Willard.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +8

Injuries to UCLA are going to catch up to them sooner rather than later.  After making easy work of UNC-Asheville in their opener, I think this is where the injuries catch up to them as they take a big step up in class here against the Northwestern Wildcats.

Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the best big men in the country and suffered a season-ending injury in the Pac-12 Tournament.  Fellow big man Adem Bona (7.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is nursing a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play today.  That leaves the Bruins very thin on the inside, and if they win this game it won't be by margin, so getting 8 points with the Wildcats is a very nice value.

This will be more of a guard-oriented matchup, and Northwestern has two stud guards in Boo Buie (17.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Chase Audige (14.0 PPG) who can match up with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell of the Bruins.  Keep in mind UCLA lost to fellow Big Ten opponent Illinois 79-70 on a neutral earlier this season.  Northwestern beat Illinois by 13 at home and lost to the Fighting Illini by 4 on the road to give us a common opponent.

Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Wildcats went 9-6 SU & 11-4 ATS in all games played away from home this season and were one of the best road teams in the country.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are getting healthy and playing up to their potential right now.  They have gone 5-2 SU in their last five games overall with all five wins coming against playoff contenders.  Now they have had the last two days off, so they are rested and ready to go in Chicago tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Bulls, who are coming off a double-OT 139-131 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  DeRozan played over 51 minutes, LaVine 46 and Vucevic 45 last night for the Bulls.  They clearly won't have anything left in the tank for the Heat tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant little int his series as the road team is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 meetings with Chicago.  The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Chicago.  The Bulls are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Auburn/Houston UNDER 131.5

Houston is an elite defensive team ranking 4th in the country in adjusted defense.  They are going to have to rely on that defense today as they are likely to be without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (16.7 PPG), who re-aggravated a groin injury suffered in the AAC Tournament that forced him to miss the Memphis game.

Houston found itself in a dog fight with Northern Kentucky in a 63-52 win for 115 combined points in the opening round.  Making matters worse for the Cougars is PG Jamal Shead (10.4 PPG) suffered an ankle injury late and was noticeably limping.  Kelvin Samspon was very concerned about injuries to his two most important players, both guards who the offense runs through.  

Points will be hard to come by for Houston today against an Auburn team that ranks 28th in adjusted defense and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  But the Tigers don't have a great offense and are undersized at the guard positions.  They will have to rely on defense to stay competitive in this game as well.

Houston is 12-4 UNDER in its last 16 Tournament games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cougars last four NCAA Tournament games.  The UNDER is 43-20-1 in Cougars last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Clippers after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a win over the defending champion Clippers, which sets them up for a letdown spot.  And they won't have their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he rests today, and they have been terrible without him this season.

Conversely, it's time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic after going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule.  Three of the losses came by 7 points or less, including a 3-point loss at Phoenix as 8-point dogs last time out.  The Magic are basically fully healthy right now and will give the Clippers a run for their money.

The Magic are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss.  The Clippers are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on two days' rest.  Orlando is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -2

I've been fading Tennessee all season with a ton of success.  But I think this is my favorite spot of the season to fade Tennessee despite all that success.  Duke is rolling right now, and Tennessee is reeling.  So getting Duke as only a 2-point favorite given all the factors in their favor is a nice value.

Tennessee has been overvalued due to ranking as one of the best defensive teams in the country.  However, they are a terrible offensive team, especially now without starting PG Zakai Zeigler.  They went on a big scoring drought Thursday and let Louisiana back in it, eventually winning 58-55 as 11.5-point favorites.  And that was a good matchup for them.  The Volunteers are now 6-7 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Duke is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Blue Devils have won 10 consecutive games while also going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning by 5 as 4-point dogs at UNC, beating Pitt by 27 as 5.5-point favorites, beating Miami by 7 as 2.5-point favorites, beating Virginia by 10 as 3-point favorites and crushing Oral Roberts by 23 as 5.5-point favorites.

Duke played the early game Thursday and made easy work of Oral Roberts, so they'll be fresh for this one.  Short-handed Tennessee had to go to the wire with Louisiana in the late game Thursday, so they'll be far from fresh.  I love taking the fresher team that played the early game in the Round of 32.  They got to scout Tennessee in the late game while watching from the stands which is a hidden advantage.

Rick Barnes is 2-14 ATS his his last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  The Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Barnes continues coming up short in these situations time and time again, and he has his hands full with this short-handed Vols team this year going up against a juggernaut in the Blue Devils.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* Furman/San Diego State CBS No-Brainer on Furman +6

The Furman Paladins have that confident feeling after stealing victory from the jaws of defeat against Virginia.  They were down 4 with seconds remaining, hit two free throws and got a steal and a game-winning 3-pointer.  They won despite their best player Mike Bothwell (17.8 PPG) fouling out and playing only 20 minutes while being in foul trouble the entire game.  I love the confidence they'll be playing with going into this game against a very similar San Diego State team, and having Bothwell for 40 minutes will make them even better.

I also love fading Mountain West teams, and I faded all four already in the NCAA Tournament and went 3-1 ATS.  It would have been 4-0 ATS if not for a bullshit foul call on Charleston +5.5 with 0.7 seconds left that allowed San Diego State to make both free throws and win by 6.  I'm not bitter or anything.

Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mountain West is now 1-13 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games with the lone cover being that San Diego State miracle on Thursday.  It's crazy how lucky this SDSU team has been in close games this season as they simply aren't very good.  The Aztecs now have a whopping 10 wins by 6 points or less this season, and I think this game will go down to the wire as well, so getting 6 points is a nice value.

One hidden factor here that goes against the Aztecs is that this is a 12:10 EST start time, which makes it a 9:10 AM body clock game for San Diego State.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and I think it will be a shock to the system for them.  I think the Aztecs will start slow and struggle to recover to beat Furman, let alone beat them by 6-plus points.  Bet Furman Saturday.

15* FAU/Memphis TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -2

I was pissed when I found out Memphis and Florida Atlantic were matched up in the opening round.  I was going to take both to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament because I think very highly of both.  I just so happen to think a lot more highly of Memphis, and thus I think there's value on the Tigers as 2-point favorites.

Nobody is playing better than Memphis heading into the NCAA Tournament.  They avenged two regular season losses to Tulane with a an emphatic 94-54 win over the Green Wave in the AAC Tournament semifinals.  They followed it up by avenging a pair of close losses to Houston in the regular season with a 75-65 win in the AAC Championship Game.  They controlled that game from start to finish and it was never close, and most believe Houston is the best team in the country right alongside Alabama.

The Tigers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing up to their potential.  They have one of the best guards in the country in Kendric Davis (22.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 2.0 SPG).  DeAndre Williams (17.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is a great compliment to Davis.  And they have a bunch of key role players that play their roles well as Penny Hardaway has this team hitting on all cylinders going into the Big Dance.  Remember, Memphis gave Gonzaga all they wanted in the second round last season and nearly pulled off the upset.

 Florida Atlantic put together an impressive 31-3 season.  But they did lose by 13 to Ole Miss in the non-conference, and my biggest problem with the Owls is that they played a very easy schedule.  They had narrow wins by 4 of Louisiana Tech without their best player and Middle Tennessee by 3 in two of their last four games as well.  They rank 61st in the luck factor, which means they had a ton of close wins throughout the season.  They went 7-1 in games decided by 4 points or fewer.

Memphis is battle-tested and ready for this moment, while the bright lights may be too big for the Owls, who will be making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002 and this will be just their second appearance ever.  Memphis is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games in March.  The Tigers are 32-8 ATS in their last 40 games following an upset conference win.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games this season.  Bet Memphis Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9

The San Antonio Spurs are 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall and not tanking.  They were very impressive in their last two games crushing Orlando 132-114 as 5-point home dogs and taking the Dallas Mavericks to OT as 5-point home dogs the next night.

The Spurs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and have each of their top seven scorers expected to play tonight.  They are good enough to give the Memphis Grizzlies a run for their money tonight and won't be taking it easy on their division rivals.

Memphis has no business being a 9-point road favorites over the Spurs without JA Morant, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams.  The Grizzlies are coming off a 119-138 loss at Miami and are now 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Dallas, which was playing without Doncic, Irving and Wood.

The Grizzlies are now 13-22 SU & 12-21-2 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Grizzlies, all of which were decided by 8 points or less.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +2.5

The Drake Bulldogs are a veteran team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They won a deep Missouri Valley conference this season with a blowout 77-51 win over Bradley on May 5th.  They've had nearly two weeks to rest up and sharpen their system and are a very dangerous out for anyone in the NCAA Tournament.

Sophomore Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is the coach's son and does it all for this team.  He is surrounded by four senior starters including PG Roman Penn (12.6 PPG, 5.4 APG), who played for Siena in 2017 and has been around forever.  These guys have been through a ton of wars together and have as good of chemistry as any team in the NCAA Tournament.

The ACC was way down this season, and I think Miami is overrated.  The Hurricanes are a great offensive team but a terrible defensive team, ranking 131st in the country in adjusted defense.  Forward Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament and left the game early.  He is unlikely to play, and even if he does he won't be near 100%. That's a big blow to the Hurricanes, especially defensively where they were already lacking.

Drake is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the country.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a pair of 2-point wins over Pitt and Wake Forest and an upset home loss to Florida State as 13-point favorites.  Bet Drake Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4

The Golden State Warriors are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games with seven losses by 8 points or more.  They have rarely even been competitive on the highway.  The Warriors are now 7-27 SU & 9-25 ATS on the road this season.

I cashed against them with a 25* on the Clippers -2 on Wednesday and they won and covered despite 50 points from Steph Curry.  You could see how dejected Curry was doing so much for this team, yet it still isn't enough.  Now Curry is questionable to play tonight with a thumb injury, and the Warriors will be without both Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, who is serving a suspension.

The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and rested and highly motivated for a victory coming off consecutive losses to the Celtics and Timberwolves.  They have had the last three days off, so they couldn't possibly be any more fresh.  Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 9th game in 16 days.  The spot and the injuries really favor the home team in this one.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grand Canyon/Gonzaga OVER 155.5

This game screams shootout.  Gonzaga ranks 1st in the country in adjusted offense this season but has taken a big step back defensively, ranking 76th in adjusted defense.  That's why they are only a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they're used to challenging for a No. 1 seed.

Gonzaga is really firing on all cylinders offensively to close out the season scoring 77 or more points in nine consecutive games.  They even scored 77 against St. Mary's twice, and that's very hard to do as the Gaels play slow and play elite defense.  The Bulldogs scored 84 or more points in each of their other seven games, and they will likely hang 90-plus on Grand Canyon in this one.

Grand Canyon ranks 53rd in adjusted offense but just 198th in adjusted defense.  They are an elite 3-point shooting team ranking 23rd in 3-point percentage.  They shoot 38.4% from 3 as a team.  Grand Canyon has scored at least 78 points in five of their last six games to close out the season and should be able to reach that number in this one.

Amazingly, the OVER is 22-3 in Grand Canyon's last 25 games overall.  The OVER is 8-2 in Gonzaga's last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Antelopes last six neutral site games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them.  They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.

A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG).  But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State could actually be a good thing because it gives his ankle even more time to rest.  Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.

UC-Santa Barbara won the Big West, which is one of the worst conferences in the country.  They played a very easy non-conference schedule and even lost to Northern Arizona by 9 as 9-point favorites and Duquesne by 11 as 3.5-point dogs.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date.

We'll 'sell high' on the Guachos, who are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall against Big West competition.  Scott Drew is one of the best head coaches in the country, and the Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears bounce back in blowout fashion in the opening round.  Bet Baylor Friday.

15* USC/Michigan State CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Spartans rank 304th in adjusted tempo and 40th in adjusted defense.  They play another very good defensive team in the USC Trojans that rank 49th in adjusted defense and 9th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  This is an early start 12:15 EST start time Friday and will be played at a snail's pace as the Spartans dictate the tempo.

Both teams have trended over the total to close out the season, which has inflated this total and has provided us with a ton of line value on the UNDER.  USC played another Big Ten team in Wisconsin in the non-conference and lost 64-59 for just 123 combined points.

USC is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Trojans last 12 neutral site games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Spartans last eight games following a loss.  They lost 58-68 to Ohio State for 126 combined points in the Big Ten Tournament.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston -19

Houston would be a bigger favorite over Northern Kentucky had they won the AAC Tournament.  But their best player in Marcus Sasser (17.1 PPG) sat out the championship game against Memphis, and they lost to a Memphis team that just seems to have their number and matches up well with them.  Northern Kentucky does not match up well with Houston.

The Cougars should make easy work of NKU here thanks to a matchup advantage that shows them as one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country up against one of the worst defensive rebounding teams.  NKU plays a zone defense that gives up a ton of offensive rebounds.  Houston is 4th in offensive rebounding rate while NKU is 333rd in allowing offensive rebounds.

The Cougars are likely to get Sasser back for this game, but it's not going to matter.  Northern Kentucky lost by 22 to Kent State, by 21 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 13 to Toledo, by 21 to Washington State and by 15 to Florida Atlantic in the non-conference.  Houston has a way of blowing out overmatched competition.  The Horizon League is way down this season and Horizon League teams have not fared well at all in recent NCAA Tournaments.

Northern Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  Houston is 49-17-1 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss.  I think it was a good thing the Cougars lost to Memphis in the AAC Championship Game because it will have them refocused and not taking this game lightly.  Bet Houston Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now trying to make the playoffs.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are now one win away from getting back to .500 for the season.  Amazingly, all six of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they are simply blowing teams out including playoff contenders like the Jazz (twice), Warriors, Pelicans and Nets.

The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are getting too much respect from a blowout win over the Nuggets last time out.  But they wanted revenge on Denver after losing to them on the road the week prior, and they were coming in on three days' rest.  That now makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors after getting their revenge against the Nuggets, who have the best record in the West but aren't playing well at all right now as they have been just going through the motions.

Oklahoma City is a 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  The Thunder are 7-0 ATS following two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win by 15 points or more as an underdog.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Oklahoma City tonight.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Boise State/Northwestern TruTV No-Brainer on Northwestern ML -120

Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.  They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Boise State is not very athletic at all and won't give Northwestern problems as they sometimes struggle with the more athletic teams.  This is a game the Wildcats can handle, and I expect them to do just that and make easy work of yet another Mountain West opponent.

Northwestern went 9-2 in the non-conference with their two losses coming to Auburn (by 1) and Pittsburgh, which are two NCAA Tournament teams.  Boise State lost to South Dakota State, Charlotte and Santa Clara in the non-conference, which is a really bad look as none of those teams made the NCAA Tournament.

Northwestern is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three games this season.  Plays on any team (Northwestern) - a Power 5 team playing a mid-major team, off an upset conference loss as a favorite are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Bet Northwestern Thursday.