20* Kentucky/Auburn SEC No-Brainer on Auburn -3.5

The Auburn Tigers may be the best team in the country. They are 17-1 SU & 14-4 ATS this season with their only loss coming to UConn in double-overtime. They have won and covered seven straight games coming into this matchup with Kentucky.

It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at Auburn with the Wildcats coming to town today. The Tigers are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.

Kentucky has been great at home as well but mediocre on the road. The Wildcats are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with losses to Notre Dame and LSU and their two wins coming against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Auburn has won its last two home meetings with Kentucky as short favorites by 7 and 9 points. They are a short favorite again here and this may be the best team in Auburn history. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following three consecutive conference games. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Tigers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Roll with Auburn Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +11

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-121 (OT) loss to the Indiana Pacers last night. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Warriors, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

This spot has made the Warriors decide to rest both Klay Thompson and Otto Porter Jr. tonight. They are already without Draymond Green and could decide to rest more. Stephen Curry played nearly 44 minutes last night and Andrew Wiggins over 38 minutes.

The Rockets are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They are also playing some of their best basketball of the season in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games all coming on the road. They upset the Spurs as 7-point road dogs, the Kings as 4.5-point road dogs and the Jazz as 13.5-point road dogs.

Plays on road underdogs (Houston) - an average 3-point shooting teams (33-36.5%) against an average 3-point defense (33-36.5%) after 42-plus games, after two straight games making 16 or more 3-pointers are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs ML +110

The San Antonio Spurs want revenge from a recent 119-121 (OT) loss at Brooklyn in which they were short-handed and the Nets were pretty healthy with Kevin Durant. Now the Nets don't have Durant tonight, and the Spurs are almost fully healthy.

That return to health showed in their 118-96 home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out. The Spurs are pretty rested right now as this will be their 6th straight home games. This is simply a great spot for them to win outright in revenge mode.

The Nets have been struggling for weeks in going 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This will be their 8th game in 13 days so they are a tired team right now as well as missing their best player in Durant.

San Antonio is 22-11 ATS in its last 33 games when revenging a road loss. Brooklyn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite. The Nets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Brooklyn. Roll with the Spurs on the Money Line Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

Anfernee Simons is playing like an All Star in the absence of Damian Lillard to keep the Blazers competitive. They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Now Simons has the luxury of having CJ McCollum back, who just returned a few games ago. He is going to continue to get stronger and better and get back to his old self with each passing game. And I fully expect the Blazers to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well enough to warrant being an 8.5-point favorite here. They are 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off an upset home loss to the Charlotte Hornets and will now be playing their 10th game in 16 days.

Boston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Take the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks -2.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory following two straight home losses against two teams that are surging in Charlotte and Minnesota.  Now they take a big step down in competition here against the New Orleans Pelicans and should handle their business.

The Pelicans are just 16-28 this season, including 6-17 SU & 7-16 ATS on the road this season and getting outscored by 8.4 points per game.  We are getting the Knicks at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites.  They had won five of their previous six games prior to these two losses in a back-to-back situation against the Hornets and Timberwolves.

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games when revenging a loss where opponnent scores 100 points or more.  The Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Mavs TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks after going 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is where they fall flat on their faces as it's a terrible spot for them.

Indeed, the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-98 home win over the Toronto Raptors last night.  It gets even worse as it will be the 5th game in 7 days for the Mavericks.  Doncic played 42 minutes last night, Finney-Smith 35 and Porzingis and Brunson 33 each.

The Mavericks won't have much left in the tank for the Phoenix Suns, who come in on two days' rest and playing some oof their best basketball of the season.  The Suns are 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with six wins by 13 points or more.  Teams haven't even been competitive with them, and the Mavericks won't either given the spot.

The Suns simply own the Mavericks, going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Dallas.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +6

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-7 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite, Tulane as a 6-point favorite, UCF as a 1-point favorite and ECU as a 7-point favorite.

A big reason for the Tigers' struggles is they are short-handed right now with seven players listed as questionable, doubtful or out on the injury report.  They should not be 6-point favorites over SMU, which is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the American Athletic Conference right now.

Recent head-to-head history also shows there's value with SMU +6 tonight.  In fact, each of the last four meetings and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet SMU Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Jazz UNDER 231

The Utah Jazz just got the best defensive player in the NBA back in Rudy Gobert.  They were struggling mightily on defense without him, losing four straight games while allowing 111 or more points in all four.

Since his return, the Jazz held the Nuggets to 102 points and the Lakers to 101 points in his first two games back.  Now the Jazz take a huge hit on offense losing their best scorer in Donovan Mitchell (25.5 PPG).  They will be without him due to a concussion tonight, and I think the oddsmakers have set this total way too high.

The Rockets are definitely an over team with their lack of defense and decent offense.  But even this is too high of a total for them.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series with combined scores of 230 or fewer points in five of them.  That includes the 213 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Utah) - a good team (+7 PPG or better) against a bad team (-7 PPG or worse) after 42-plus games are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +22

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They have lost six straight while going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But one of their best performances was a 77-92 loss at Kentucky as similar 22.5-point dogs, and I fully expect them to cover this 22-point spread at Auburn.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers.  They have gone 13-0 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with six straight covers.  That includes big wins over LSU, Florida and Alabama during this stretch.  Now the Tigers have a huge game on deck against Kentucky on Saturday and will be looking ahead.  They won't be giving Georgia their full attention, making it very difficult to cover this 22-point spread as a result.

Georgia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog.  That includes an outright win as a 9-point dog at Auburn last season.  Bet Georgia Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won't be very motivated to beat an Orlando Magic team for a 3rd time this season.  They won 101-96 as 14-point home favorites on November 29th and 116-106 as 8.5-point road favorites on January 5th after a late surge in the final two minutes.

The Magic will be out for revenge and they have been getting healthier by the day.  The Magic have been very competitive of late, losing just once by more than 10 points in their last nine games.  They have Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Mo Bamba back healthy and could get Wendell Carter Jr. back from injury tonight.

Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The 76ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards ML -105

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-7 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Things just got worse with the loss of their best player in Kevin Durant and they are already without several other key players.  This team continues to get too much respect tonight as a PK at Washington.

The Wizards just got Bradley Beal back from injury last time out and crushed the 76ers 117-98 as 2-point home underdogs.  They are fully healthy for basically the first time all season and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They will take down the Nets tonight.

Washington is 9-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Wizards are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Washington is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Brooklyn.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -3.5

The Creighton Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory after two straight road losses against arguably the two best teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  They have played three straight on the road while also upsetting Marquette.  

The Bluejays were last seen at home throttling Villanova 79-59 on December 17th, so they haven't played at home in over a month.  It's safe to say they will be excited to be back home in front of their fans and one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

St. John's is 0-4 in all games played away from home this season compared to 10-1 at home.  Creighton is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meetings with the Red Storm and only has to cover a short 3.5-point spread here.  

The Red Storm are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  St. John's is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 140.5

Two great defensive teams that play at slow paces square off Tuesday night in Big Ten action.  This should be yet another defensive battle between Wisconsin and Northwestern, and the recent head-to-head history tells the story as to why there is value with the UNDER tonight.

Indeed, each of the last 16 meetings between Northwestern and Wisconsin have seen 139 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140.5-point total.  Enough said.  Roll with the UNDER In this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8.5

What more does Iowa State have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Until they do, we'll keep cashing tickets on them.  They are 14-3 this season with the three losses coming to Baylor by 5 as 7.5-point dogs, Kansas by 1 as 13-point road dogs and Oklahoma as 6-point road dogs after blowing a 10-point lead in the second half.

The losses are impressive, and the upset wins keep stacking up.  They upset Xavier as 9-point dogs, Memphis as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton as 5.5-point dogs, Iowa as 5-point dogs and Texas as 2.5-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech 51-47 in the first meeting as 5-point home favorites, and now the oddsmakers have made a 13.5-point adjustment by making the Red Raiders an 8.5-point home favorite.

Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect in the betting markets due to recent upset wins over Kansas as 7-point dogs and Baylor as 11.5-point dogs.  But they fell flat on their faces last time in in a 51-62 road loss at Kansas State as 4.5-point favorites, handing the Wildcats their first Big 12 win of the season.  They should maybe be favored in the rematch with the Cyclones at home, but they should not be this big of favorites.

The Cyclones are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after covering four or five of its last six games ATS.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Knicks NBA TV No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season with De'Angelo Russell, Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards all healthy.  They have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with the five wins coming by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Their only losses coming on the road to the Pelicans at the buzzer and the Grizzlies by 8.

The Timberwolves are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The same cannot be said for the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after an 87-97 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Monday.

While the Timberwolves are basically at full strength, the Knicks are missing four key players in Solomon Hill, Derrick Rose, Cameron Reddish and Nerlens Noel and could be without Kemba Walker, who is questionable.  That makes the spot even worse for the Knicks tonight behind short-handed.

Plays against underdogs (New York) - off a home loss by 10 points or more with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 70-37 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites.  Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Knicks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -2

Davidson has won 13 straight games coming into this showdown with VCU.  But I think VCU is favored for good reason tonight and that streak comes to an end in what will be Davidson's stiffest challenge during this winning streak.

Davidson has played just four true road games during this streak with wins against overmatched competition in Charlotte, Northeastern, St. Joseph's and Richmond.  The win over Richmond was decent and came by only 3 points, but VCU is better than that overrated Richmond squad.

The Rams are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset Syracuse, only lost to Baylor by 8 as 13.5-point dogs, only lost to UConn by 7 as 8-point dogs and lost at St. Bonaventure.  So all of their losses have come on the road during this stretch against very good teams in Baylor, UConn & St. Bonaventure.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  VCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take VCU Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been feisty all season.

Indeed, the Thunder are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.  They have only lost by double-digits once in their last eight games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and more than capable of giving the Dallas Mavericks a run for their money tonight.

The Thunder are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games following two consecutive non-conference games.  Dallas is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Magic OVER 216

The Portland Trail Blazers have been a good OVER team no matter who has been on the court.  In fact, nine of their last 10 games have seen 215 or more combined points, with eight of those seeing 222 or more combined points.  So there's value with the OVER 216 here.

Andernee Simons has averaged 24.3 points per game in his last seven games in the absence of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.  But now McCollum (20.6 PPG) is expected to make his much anticipated return to the lineup tonight after being out since December 4th.  So the offense gets an added punch, and Portland's defense ranks 29th in efficiency giving up 112.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Magic have gotten both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs back healthy recently and are a much better offensive team.  They have scored at least 100 points in 11 of their last 15 games and can hang with the Blazers on the offensive end.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 217 or more points in five of the six.  The OVER Is 24-9 in Blazers last 33 Monday games.  The OVER Is 8-1 in Magic last eight games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 5-1 in Magic last six home games.  Take the OVER In this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 26-18 SU & 28-14-2 ATS.  As long as they have had Darius Garland (19.7 PPG, 7.8 APG), Jarrett Allen (16.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG) and Evan Mobley (15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) healthy they have been dangerous.

Now the Cavaliers will take down a Brooklyn Nets tam that is missing their best player in Kevin Durant (29.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.8 APG).  They will have James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but they aren't as good of a team on defense with those two in the lineup, and the loss of Durant hurts them quite a bit on that end too.

The Nets have been grossly overvalued for weeks even with Durant in the lineup.  They have gone 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Nets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Brooklyn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS win.  Cleveland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* Purdue/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois ML -111

Illinois is 11-1 in its last 12 games with its only loss coming to Arizona, which may be the best team in the country.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue rolling this afternoon at home against the Purdue Boilermakers on MLK Day.

While the Fighting Illini have been dominant in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Boilermakers have been exposed by going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have played only two true road games during this stretch and lost outright at Rutgers as 13.5-point favorites and only beat Penn State by 7 as 9.5-point favorites.  They were also upset at home by Wisconsin as 12.5-point favorites.

Brad Underwood has Matt Painter's number.  The Fighting Illini are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 26 as 1.5-point home favorites, by 17 as 6-point road underdogs and by 8 as 8-point home favorites.  We are getting the Fighting Illini cheap today as just a PK at home.

The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Illinois is 9-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Pistons UNDER 215.5

Early afternoon Sunday UNDERS have been a great bet in the NBA for years.  The number is right to pull the trigger on this UNDER today between the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and both teams will be getting after it defensively.

The Suns just got back DeAndre Ayton and JaVale McGee.  It's no surprise their defense has picked up their play with these two in the lineup.  The Suns allowed 95 points to the Raptors and 94 points to the Pacers in their last two games.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that ranks dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Pistons have been held to 103 or fewer points in four of their last five games.  But they are playing better defensively, holding two of their last four opponents to 92 points or fewer.

Cameron Johnson has missed the last couple games for the Suns and is questionable to return, which is a big reason their offense has struggled in scoring 106 points or fewer in three of their last four.  The Pistons will be without three guards in Jerami Grant, Frank Jackson and Rodney McGruder today.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Suns last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs.  They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.

Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown.  Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.

Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +16.5

UCLA has not been sharp since returning from a COVID pause.  They were off from December 11th until January 6th.  They have returned and gone 0-3 ATS, winning by 18 over Long Beach State as a 26-point favorite and winning by 8 at California as an 8.5-point favorite.

Then on Thursday the Bruins lost outright as 9.5-point home favorites to Oregon.  The Bruins are playing without any home fans right now, so they have almost zero home-court advantage.  That isn't being factored into their lines enough.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Oregon State after a disastrous start to the season after making the Elite 8 last year.  The Beavers have been consistently undervalued in recent weeks, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah by 12 as 4.5-point home dogs, only lost by 2 to Oregon as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 10 at USC as 14.5-point road dogs.  If they can hang with those teams, they can certainly hang with UCLA tonight.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or less.  In fact, UCLA hasn't beaten Oregon State by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.  The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

I cashed in the Magic last night as 11-point underdogs in a 116-109 outright win at Charlotte.  I'm back on them again tonight as this team is getting healthier now and has covered three straight as a result.

In fact, the Magic have been extremely competitive of late against good teams as each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  They just got both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs back from injuries and could get a couple more big men back tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who have won seven of their last eight including a win at Memphis last night to put an end to the Grizzlies' 11-game winning streak.  But Memphis was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and it was a bad spot for them.  Now the Mavericks will have their letdown after ending the Grizzlies' winning streak.

Dallas is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.  They had yesterday off and are fully healthy and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days after a 114-109 win in San Antonio last night.  I really like this Cleveland team and have backed them with success all season, but this is a terrible spot for them and they need faded tonight because of it.

The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +11

Houston should not be a double-digit favorite at Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They consistently exceed expectations at home, and I fully expect them to give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.

Tulsa comes in highly motivated for a victory as it is coming off three straight losses to very good SMU, Memphis and Temple teams all by 5 points or less.  In fact, seven of their eight losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, so they are undervalued just based on their record.

Houston is overvalued after winning six straight coming in, but three of those wins came by 11 points or fewer and the others were against overmatched Lafayette, Texas State and South Florida teams.  Tulsa is 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Houston.  That includes outright upsets as 9.5-point dogs and 6-point dogs in their last two home meetings.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4 or more boards per game than their opponents.   Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +9.5

Loyola-Chicago is grossly overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That includes a 12-point home win over Indiana State as 18-point favorites.  Now the Sycamores will be out for revenge, and asking the Ramblers to go on the road and beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Loyola-Chicago has had some very good luck in close games recently.  They beat San Francisco by 5, needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valparaiso as a 15.5-point home favorite in their last three games coming in.  Their luck runs out today, and at the very least the Sycamores cover.

I have been very impressed with Indiana State in MVC play this season.  They played Loyola-Chicago tough in that first meeting, upset Bradley 76-71 as 3.5-point home underdogs and took Northern Iowa to OT as 12-point road underdogs.  Those are three of the best teams in MVC this season and arguably the two best in UNI and Loyola, so they have proven they belong.

Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 22.7 points per game.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU ML +107

TCU is 11-2 this season including 6-1 at home with its only loss to Baylor.  The wrong team is favored in this game as the Horned Frogs host Oklahoma today.  It's a Sooners team that is 1-2 SU in true road games with its lone win coming by 3 points and both losses by double-digits.

Oklahoma is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Sooners are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites.  Oklahoma is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a favorite overall.  The Horned Frogs are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Roll with TCU on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Louisville/Pittsburgh ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have been grossly undervalued for over a month.  They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight games decided by 4 points or fewer.  So that fact alone says there's value with the Panthers catching 5 points at home today.

I backed Pittsburgh as a double-digit dog at Louisville in their 72-75 loss on January 5th.  Now I'm back on them again in this great revenge spot here just 10 days later and at home this time around.  Louisville is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  

They lost outright to DePaul as 7.5-point home favorites, outright to Western Kentucky by 10 as favorites, and by 16 as 6-point home favorites to NC State last time out among some of their worst performances.  It really shows how bad this team really is, and each of their last three wins came by 4 points or less.

The Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have been grossly underrated all season.  And they are getting disrespected again here as home underdogs to the Texas Longhorns.  This is a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cyclones opened 12-0 with several outright upsets as underdogs.  They have opened 1-3 SU in Big 12 play but are 2-2 ATS.  They only lost by 5 to Baylor as 7.5-point dogs and by 1 at Kansas as 13-point dogs, which are arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 and shows what they are capable of.   They also beat Texas Tech at home.  Now they are highly motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in conference.

Texas is 3-1 in conference but has played a much softer schedule.  Their only road win came at Kansas State and the Wildcats were missing a ton of players due to COVID.  They are also one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  The Longhorns lost by 13 at Oklahoma State, another team that isn't very good.  And they beat short-handed West Virginia and Oklahoma at home.

Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. teams that average 9 or more steals per game.  Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +8

I love the spot for the Northwestern Wildcats today.  They will be out for revenge from a 67-73 home loss to Michigan State on January 2nd.  Now they get to face the Spartans less than two weeks later and are catching 8 points this time around after catching only 3 points at home.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost four straight coming in but all four losses have come by 8 points or fewer.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spartans, who have won nine straight coming in.

But the Spartans are starting to get a little lazy and failing to meeting expectations.  They are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only cover coming in that 6-point win at Northwestern as 3-point favorites.  They only beat High Point by 13 as 22.5-point home favorites, Nebraska by 12 as 14.5-point home favorites and Minnesota by 2 as 11.5-point home favorites.

The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Mavs/Grizzlies ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

The UNDER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 212 or fewer points in seven of those eight games, including 193 or fewer in five of those.  The lone exception came against Houston which is an over team.

Memphis is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days.  That will affect them more on offense than it will on defense.  They won't be looking to push the tempo tonight, and the Mavericks will gladly play at a snail's pace with them.

This will already be the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  They combined for just 187 points in their first meeting and 200 points in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same tonight as the books have set this number way too high.

Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following four or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Mavericks last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 32-14 in Mavericks last 46 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games as home favorites.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Michigan/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines.  They are off to a disappointing 7-6 start this season and coming off upset road losses to both UCF and Rutgers.  But they have had the last nine days off to get healthy, rested and ready to take on Illinois tonight.  

I fully expect a big effort from the Wolverines, which should be enough to cover this inflated 10-point spread.  Michigan has been favored in all 13 games this season, and now they are not only an underdog for the first time, but a double-digit underdog at that.  This fact alone shows you there's value with Michigan and we are getting them at their best price of the season.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois.  The Fighting Illini have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss to Arizona.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule for the most part and five of the 10 wins have come by 10 points or fewer.  That includes a 10-point win at Nebraska as 12.5-point favorites last time out.  And they needed a late surge to beat Maryland by 12 in their previous game at home.

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolverines have the size inside to match up with Kofi Cockburn.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Michigan Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +11

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Orlando Magic right now.  They have lost 10 straight games, but they clearly have not quit as each of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less.  And I think they make that seven in a row here as they keep this game competitive against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a terrible spot for the Hornets and a great time to 'sell high' on them.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall including two wins over the Bucks.  They just ended their 16-game losing streak to the 76ers in their head-to-head series last time.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Hornets now as they feel like they can just show up and beat the Magic.

A big reason the Magic have been more competitive of late with six straight losses by 10 points or fewer is because they have gotten healthier.  They recently got their best player in Cole Anthony (19.8 PPG, 5.9 APG) back, and now they are expected to get another key player in rookie Jalen Suggs (12.3 PPG, 3.6 APG)  back from a thumb injury tonight.  Five of their top six scorers are back healthy.

These teams have already met twice this season with the Hornets winning both games by single-digits.  In fact, Charlotte hasn't won any of its last nine meetings with the Magic by more than 9 points, making for a 9-0 system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.  The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -10.5

The Denver Nuggets are getting healthier and ready to blow out the Portland Trail Blazers tonight as they return home following an upset road loss to the Clippers.  Look for them to win this game by double-digits and cover this spread against a Blazers team whose health situation just keeps getting worse.

The Blazers were able to stay competitive in recent games without Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum due to Anfernee Simons stepping his game up.  He has averaged 27.8 PPG and 7.6 APG in his last five games.  But now Simons is out tonight for personal reasons, so the Blazers will be without their top four scores in Lillard (24.0 PPG), McCollum (20.6 PPG), Powell (18.6 PPG) and Simons.  That stand zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Nuggets without them.

Denver is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Portland with the three wins coming by an average of 18.3 points per game, and that was with much healthier Blazers teams and much shorter spreads.  Portland is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Take the Nuggets Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season and has impressive me.  The Owls are 9-5 this season and coming off a win over the favorite to win Conference USA in UAB outright as 10.5-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to hang with Western Kentucky tonight.

Western Kentucky was a great team the last few years but lost a lot of talent from those teams.  They are just 9-6 this season, but they continue to get a lot of respect because they have been a good basketball program.  They should not be 8.5-point home favorites against Rice tonight.

Rice is +5.4 points per game this season based on what their opponents normally average on offense and give up on defense.  Western Kentucky is +6.6 points per game based on the same criteria.  So the Hilltoppers would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral, and they don't have a 7.5-point home-court advantage.  There's value on the Owls tonight.

Three of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and those were much better WKU teams and much worse Rice teams than these 2021-22 versions.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Western Kentucky is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves/Grizzlies OVER 230.5

Two teams lighting up the scoreboards recently square off tonight in the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies.  This one has shootout written all over it folks.  Shootouts have been standard in this head-to-head series as the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 233, 243 and 274 points.

The key for the Timberwolves is having De'Angelo Russell healthy as it has flourish when he, Towns and Edwards are on the floor at the same time.  Indeed, the Timberwolves have scored 122 or more points in four of their last five games overall and 125 or more in three straight.  None of those games went to overtime, either.

The Grizzlies just got JA Morant back and that's a big reason they are on a 10-game winning streak.  They have  scored 110 or more points in seven straight games coming in and in nine of the 10 games during this winning streak.  I see both teams pushing for 120-plus points in this one.

Minnesota is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after winning four of its last five games.  The Timberwolves are 8-0 OVER vs. good rebounding teams averaging 3 or more boards than their opponent this season.  The OVER is 10-1 in Timberwolves 11 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points this season.  The OVER is 13-3 in Timberwolves last 16 road games.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -3

North Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming to UAB, a team it is vying for a Conference USA title win.  That includes upset wins over Drake as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4-point dogs on the highway.

Marshall has been overrated all season, going 7-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in lined games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with five straight losses by double-digits.  That includes home losses to Northern Iowa by 15 as 2.5-point favorites and Florida Atlantic by 13 as 5-point favorites.

The numbers show North Texas is by far the superior team and should be a bigger favorite here.  North Texas is +12 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense this season.  Marshall is only +0.4 points per game based on the same criteria, so North Texas is 12 points better on a neutral.  The Mean Green have played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while the Thundering Herd have played the 111th.

North Texas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +7.5

This is the perfect spot to fade the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight shocking upsets of the two favorites to win the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor.  They even handed the Bears their first loss of the season on Tuesday.

Now the Red Raiders are feeling fat and happy and I expect them to fall flat on their faces tonight.  This is a great time to 'sell high' on them here, and also a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have lost three of their last four to three of the best teams in the country in Houston, Kansas and West Virginia.  They also upset Texas 64-51 as 3-point dogs for their lone win during this stretch of four straight games as underdogs.

Oklahoma State has had Texas Tech's number.  The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three outright upsets as underdogs.  That includes an 82-77 win as 8-point road dogs at Texas Tech last season.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference loss.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after winning four of its last five games.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +6

The Utah Jazz have been grossly overvlaued for weeks.  They are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have been without Rudy Gobert in each of their last three games and it has hurt them as they lost by 14 at Toronto, by 12 at Indiana and by 10 at Detroit.

Utah is a terrible defensive team without Gobert, who helps clean up their mistakes.  The Jazz allowed 122 points to the Raptors, 125 to the Pacers and 126 to the Pistons.  This is a tough spot for them as they will be playing their first home game following a five-game road trip.  It will also be their 8th game in 13 days.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cavaliers after going 1-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But they were missing several key players during this stretch and are as healthy as they have been in a while tonight.  It will also be just their 4th game in 8 days.

Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) - revenging a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite are 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavaliers are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Jazz are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State +12.5

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the best covering teams in the country over the last few seasons.  But the odds have clearly caught up with them this season as they are 11-5 SU but just 3-10 ATS in their 13 lined games.  And they continue to be overvalued in conference play, including here tonight against Illinois State.

Drake is 0-3 ATS in conference play this season beating Valpo by 7 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 5 at Missouri State as 4-point dogs and only beating Evansville by 1 as double-digit road favorites.  Now they are overvalued once again as 12.5-point home favorites against Illinois State.

Illinois State is playing well right now going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  The Redbirds beat Ball State by 21 as 5.5-point home favorites and UTSA by 17 as 9-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road at Wisconsin and only lost by 4 as 17-point underdogs before losing by 5 at Valpo in OT as 5.5-point dogs.  That effort against Wisconsin says all you need to know about their potential.

The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Illinois State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 0-8 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 98-101 (OT) loss at Boston on Monday.  They don't have to wait long for a shot at revenge here just two days later Wednesday, and they get the Celtics at home this time around.  

The Pacers were last seen at home upsetting the Jazz 125-113 as 4-point dogs on Saturday.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight so they are rested and ready to go.  And there's a chance they get Malcolm Brodgon, Caris LeVert and Chris Duarte back tonight, who are all questionable.

The Celtics are a tired team right now playing their 5th game in 8 days.  And they will be without their leader in Marcus Smart, who got hurt against the Pacers last game and is out with a thigh injury.  He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA with what he's able to do on both ends of the floor for this team.

Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing six or seven or its last eight games.  The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +6.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic.  They have lost eight straight coming in but a lot of them have been competitive losses.  Indeed, four of their last five losses have come by 5 points or less, so getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice value.

That's especially the case considering the terrible spot for the Wizards and the great one for the Magic.  Orlando will be out for revenge from a 100-102 home loss to the Wizards as 7-point underdogs last time out on Monday.  Now they have had two days off since that defeat and will be the fresher, more motivated team.

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 122-118 home win over Oklahoma City last night.  They won't have their best player in Bradley Beal, who is doubtful with COVID.  They should not be 6.5-point favorites here without Beal and in this terrible spot.

The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Washington is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Wizards are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joseph's +9.5

St. Joseph's is battle-tested in its last four games.  The Hawks are 3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They won 68-49 as 1.5-point home dogs to Temple, only lost 73-77 at Bradley as 4.5-point dogs and crushed Richmond 83-56 as 11.5-point road dogs in one of the most impressive performances of any team all season.

Predictably, the Hawks laid an egg in their next game and lost 73-88 as 4.5-point home dogs to Davidson.  Well, Davidson might be the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Now the Hawks have had a full week to get ready for Rhode Island.

This is a Rhode Island team that lost by 14 at Providence, only beat Sacred Heart by 10 at home, beat a bad Wisconsin-Milwaukee team on the road, only beat American International 70-55 at home and lost at Davidson in its last five games.  They have had the much easier schedule of late, and they should not be laying nearly double-digits against St. Joe's tonight.

St. Joseph's is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rhode Island is 24-48 ATS in its last 72 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games coming in.  The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with St. Joseph's Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF ML +105

I love the spot for UCF tonight.  They were feeling fat and happy off their 85-71 upset home win of Michigan and have proceeded to lose their last two games to SMU and Temple.  Now they have had a fully week to steam over those losses and get ready for Memphis tonight.  Look for one of their best efforts of the season similar to that effort against Michigan tonight.

It will be good enough to win and cover against a Memphis squad that is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to Penny Hardaway and his recruiting.  Memphis is just 4-5 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites, Georgia as 11.5-point favorites, Ole Miss as 1.5-point favorites, Murray State as 10-point favorites and Tulane as 6-point favorites.

UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover four or five of its last six against the spread.  Memphis is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take UCF on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -1

I love the spot for Xavier tonight.  This will be their 2nd meeting with Villanova in their last three games.  They lost 58-71 at Villanova, and now they will be out for revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to get their revenge with a win and cover.

Xavier has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is legitimately one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are 11-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road.  That includes losses at Baylor by 21 and at Creighton by 20.

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  The Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The favorite is 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 219.5

The Warriors are loaded on offense now with Curry, Poole and Wiggins all healthy plus the return of Klay Thompson.  They take a hit defensively tonight with the loss of Draymond Green, plus both Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. are questionable.

The Grizzlies are healthier now and have JA Morant back and their offense has been dominant.  They could be without Steven Adams, who is questionable and would hurt them defensively if he sits.  They are also without another great defender in Dillon Brooks.

The Grizzlies have won nine straight coming in and have scored at least 110 points in eight of the nine wins.  This figures to be a shootout with the Warriors, who have struggled offensively of late but they won't be held down for long and should get right against the Grizzlies here on that end.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes.  They have won nine straight coming in and with almost all those wins at home.  But they did go on the road and beat Duke outright as a 15-point favorite on Saturday for their signature victory.  Now this is an obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes at Florida State tonight.

Florida State got back on track with a 79-70 home win over Louisville last time out.  They are bitter rivals with Miami and would love to end their nine-game winning streak.  I think they do so in blowout fashion as they simply own the Hurricanes.

Indeed, the Seminoles have won seven straight meetings with the Hurricanes and are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 17 points or more.  The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Hurricanes with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.

Florida State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 ACC home games.  The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Seven of Miami's last nine wins have come by single-digits with the only exceptions being home wins over Lipscomb and Stetson in which they failed to cover the spread.  Their luck runs out tonight in this obvious letdown spot.  Take Florida State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Raptors UNDER 224.5

The Phoenix Suns just got back three of their best defenders in DeAndre Ayton, JaVale McGee and Jameson Crowder.  They lose one of their best offensive weapons in Cameron Johnson, who is out with an ankle injury.  He has scored in double figures in 18 straight games and shoots 43.8% from 3-point range, so it's a huge blow to them offensively.

The Raptors could be without their 4th and 5th leading scorers in Gary Trent Jr. (16.4 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (14.7 PPG), who are both questionable.  I think this sets up as a defensive battle between two teams who are more than capable of playing great defense given the current players in their lineup.

Toronto ranks 23rd in pace and will control the tempo here playing at home.  Phoenix ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 102.2 points per 100 possessions.  Toronto has won six straight largely due to improvement on defense as they have allowed 11 or fewer points in all six victories.

Phoenix is 8-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 18-5 UNDER In their last 23 games following a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more.  The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Suns last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Suns last 16 games following a loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +10.5

Pittsburgh has been grossly undervalued for weeks after a slow start to the season.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two non-covers coming by a combined 4 points.  Their seven covers have come by a combined 51 points.

Amazingly, Pitt has played in nine straight games decided by single-digits, including eight of those by 4 points or less.  That includes games against Minnesota, Virginia, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boston College.  So they have been competitive against some great competition and should not be catching double-digits against Syracuse tonight.

Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall and has lost five of its last seven with its only wins coming at home against Brown and Cornell.  Every time they have faced a decent team recently they have lost.  They should not be laying double-digits as they sit at just 7-8 on the season and this is one of the worst Syracuse teams in recent memory.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the last two seasons.  Syracuse is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  All five wins came at home.  Rutgers is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 13.5 points per game on average.  That includes outright losses to DePaul and UMass as favorites.

Penn State has covered three straight with upset wins over Indiana at home and Northwestern on the road.  Their only loss came by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the country.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +10

Both the Blazers and Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But this is clearly a worse spot for the Nets than it is for the Blazers, who will still be playing just their 5th game in 10 days and their 8th game in 20 days.

The Nets will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.  They needed overtime to beat the Spurs 121-119 at home on Sunday.  Now they have the long flight out to the West Coast overnight while the Blazers get to stay at home after beating the Kings 103-88 at home last night.

That was a taxing game for the Nets last night as Kevin Durant and James Harden both played over 43 minutes.  They aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Blazers.  Plus, the Nets have been grossly overvalued of late in going 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by single-digits over the Pacers and Spurs.  They should not be double-digit favorites at Portland tonight.  The Nets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Rockets OVER 225.5

The Houston Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense.  They have scored 102 or more points in 22 of their last 24 games overall with the OVER going 19-5 in those 24 games.  But they have allowed 104 or more points in 21 straight games, including 111 or more in 11 straight contests.

The Rockets and their opponents have combined for 222 or more points in 12 straight games and 230 or more in six of their last seven.  That includes a 113-133 road loss at Philadelphia for 246 combined points.  So I don't think the 76ers and Rockets will have too much trouble topping 225.5 combined points in the rematch here tonight.

The 76ers are humming on offense right now with a recent return to health being a big reason why.  They have scored 110 or more points in six straight games.  Look for them to top 120 tonight and for the Rockets to do their part on offense in getting this OVER as well.

Houston is 7-0 OVER when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 7-0-2 in 76ers last nine games as road favorites.  The OVER is 7-0 in Rockets last seven home games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system in his analysis.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have won eight straight coming in.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Clippers last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Grizzlies, who have injury concerns with JA Morant, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson all questionable.

The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and playing up to their potential because of it.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Memphis on December 29th on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They only lost by 5 points, and now they are the team in the favorable situation and out for revenge.  This is a great spot for the Lakers as they are the fresher, more motivated team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Rockets OVER 232

Both the Timberwolves and Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams right now.  The Timberwolves just got their Big 3 back healthy in Russell, Towns and Edwards and hung 135 points on the Thunder last time out.  Russell is the key as their offense is way more efficient with him and they play at a faster tempo.

The Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense.  They have scored 102 or more points in 21 of their last 23 games overall with the OVER going 18-5 in those 23 games.  But they have allowed 104 or more points in 20 straight games, including 111 or more in 10 straight contests.

The OVER is 7-1 in Timberwolves last eight road games.  The OVER is 11-5 in Timberwolves last 16 games overall.  The OVER Is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks had yesterday off and will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.

The Hawks will be motivated to end this six-game road trip a winner.  They have gotten healthier as the trip has gone on and are actually as healthy as they have been in a long time as they just got Trae Young and John Collins back among other.  Expect a big effort from them this afternoon.

The Clippers are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are really struggling without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.  They have lost their last three games in blowout fashion to the Timberwolves by 18, the Suns by 17 and the Grizzlies by 15.  I don't expect them to be competitive today either given the spot, and they have even less rest considering this is an afternoon game.

The Clippers are 3-11 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Los Angeles is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games after four straight games where they were outrebounded by 5 or more boards.  The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  Take the Hawks Sunday.

20* Cincinnati/Memphis ABC No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

The Memphis Tigers have nine players either out or questionable on their injury report with all of them legitimate injuries instead of COVID.  That includes Duren (11.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Bates (10.8 PPG), Nolley II (9.2 PPG) and Lomax (5.9 PPG) among others.

The Tigers have already been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season.  I faded them with success last time out with Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane only lost 64-67 as 13-point road underdogs.  And I'm fading them again today with the Cincinnati Bearcats catching too many points at Memphis.

The Bearcats are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  That includes a 77-60 win over SMU as 2.5-point home favorites last time out in one of their most complete games of the season.  Unlike Memphis, they are as healthy as they have been all season entering AAC play here and ready to make some noise in the conference.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  In fact, Memphis has only beaten Cincinnati by more than 6 points once in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Hornets OVER 234.5

Two OVER teams square off tonight when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets rank 1st in pace, 3rd in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency this season.  The Bucks also play at a fast tempo and rank 6th in offensive efficiency.

The Hornets combined with the Pistons by 251 points and the Wizards for 245 points in their last two games coming in.  They also faced the Bucks earlier this season and gave them a run for their money, only losing 125-127 for 252 combined points as 9-point road underdogs.

The Bucks and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in seven straight games and 228 or more in six of those.  I think these teams easily get over this 234.5-point total given the matchup.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 240 or more combined points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they have been much more competitive of late now that they have gotten several key players back from injury.  They are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games beating Georgia State by 10, losing at Louisville by 3 and losing at Duke by 12 as 18.5-point dogs.

I think this is a great spot to back the Yellow Jackets as they return home and are highly motivated for a victory.  It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Notre Dame, which has won four straight coming in against mostly weak competition.  The exception was the upset 78-73 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday, which makes the Fighting Irish primed for a letdown.

Notre Dame is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at lowly Pittsburgh by a single point.  They lost by double-digits at Illinois and at Boston College.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game.  The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Tennessee/LSU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to the Auburn Tigers, who are one of the best teams in the country.  Not only are the Tigers winning, they are dominating as they are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game on the season.

The Tigers have been at their best at home where the are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS while winning by a whopping 29.6 points per game.  That includes a 65-60 home win over Kentucky last time out.  If they can beat Kentucky, they can definitely take down Tennessee.

The Vols have some shaky performances lately with a loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Alabama as well as needing overtime to beat Ole Miss as 17-point home favorites last time out.  I think I've seen a lot more holes in Tennessee's game than LSU, which is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency.  The Vols struggle to score at times which really showed in the Texas Tech and Ole Miss games.

LSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Tennessee with all three wins coming outright as underdogs, including two by double-digits.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a sleeper to win the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Panthers opened 4-7 this season against a brutal schedule and missing some key players early.  But now they are full strength and playing up to their potential with this veteran team that returned all five starters.

Indeed, the Panthers have opened 2-1 in MVC play with their only loss coming 69-71 at Bradley back on December 1st.  They have won both of their MVC games in blowout fashion in January by beating Evansville 83-61 and Valparaiso 92-65.  Now they are ready to take down Missouri State.

The Bears have opened conference season 2-1 as well with a bad 74-79 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have since beaten 61-56 and Bradley 71-69 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off that Bradley win at the buzzer.

The Panthers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Bears.  The road team is 32-15-1 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Dana Ford is 1-9 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Missouri State.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +14

The Bradley Braves are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The three losses all came by 5 points or less at Toledo by 2, at Indiana State by 5 and at home against Missouri State by 2.  This team is playing too well right now to be catching 14 points from Loyola-Chicago.

This is a bad spot for the Ramblers.  They are coming off a 79-74 win over San Francisco on a neutral on Thursday.  So they have had just one day to get ready for Bradley and there is travel involved.  The tough spot will make it very difficult for them to get margin on the Braves today as they are a tired team right now.

Each of the last nine meetings in this series were decided by 13 points or fewer.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Braves pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7.5

Nebraska has impressed me in its last two games taking Ohio State to overtime as 9.5-point underdogs and covering in a 12-point loss at Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs.  The Huskers have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play against a brutal schedule, but now they have a great chance to get their first conference win of the season, and at the very least stay inside this inflated number.

This is a terrible spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off a historic win over Michigan 75-67 at home last time out as 3.5-point underdogs.  But that is a down Michigan team this year.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for them now with lowly Nebraska coming to town.

Nebraska has been a thorn in Rutgers' side in recent meetings.  They only lost 72-75 in their last trip to Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs.  And they won outright 72-51 as 8.5-point home dogs in their most recent meeting.  This Nebraska team is better than those versions, and this Rutgers team is down a few notches this year.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* Hawks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten healthy of late and are starting to play up to their potential.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the red-hot Grizzlies on the second of a back-to-back by a final of 99-104.  They have handled their business at home winning their last three home games by a combined 46 points.

Now they are a short home favorite hosting the Atlanta Hawks.  The Lakers got some important rest as they come in having the last two days off last playing on Tuesday.  Look for them to put their best foot forward on National TV tonight, and it should be good enough to win and cover this short number.

The Hawks are 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are starting to get healthier, but there are still several question marks with this team in the injury department.  Trae Young (28.4 PPG, 9.5 APG), John Collins (17.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Bogdan Bogdonovic (11.7 PPG) are all questionable tonight.  Obviously Young and Collins are the big ones because they are their top two scorers.  I like the Lakers whether or not they play tonight, if they don't and Young misses a second straight game it would be an added bonus.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hawks are 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points this season.  Roll with the Lakers Friday. 

25* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall despite missing several key players along the way.  But they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and get Luguentz Dort back from injury tonight.

I love the spot for the Thunder tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation.  They will be out for revenge from a 98-90 road loss at Minnesota on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later, and they are healthier than they were in that first meeting.  I expect them to win this game outright, let alone cover the 6-point spread.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have gone 7-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  This is the perfect letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Thunder again after just beating them two days ago.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season.  The Thunder are 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Washington +6.5

The Washington Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They get some key players back tonight in Spencer Dinwiddie (13.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Aaron Holiday (6.4 PPG) and could be getting back Montrezl Harrell (14.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG), who has been upgraded to questionable.

I love the spot for the Wizards, who will be out for revenge after losing 119-120 as 2-point home underdogs to the Bulls on January 1st less than a week ago.  They lost at the buzzer after Kyle Kuzma hit the go-ahead 3-pointer in the closing seconds, only to see DeMar DeRozan to win it.  They want this game a lot more than the Bulls do, and motivation is everything in the NBA.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls.  They have won eight straight coming in.  They started to show signs of complacency last time out, only beating the depleted Magic 102-98 as 14-point home favorites.  I think they will be complacent here as well having just beaten the Wizards last than a week ago.

Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games playing on three or more days' rest.  I think all this rest actually works against them because they had momentum with that eight-game winning streak.  Take the Wizards Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +5.5

The California Golden Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country as Mark Fox is doing a heck of a job with this team.  They have gone 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home.  They just beat Arizona State by 24 at home last time out, and they are primed to hand USC its first loss of the season.

The Trojans are overvalued due to their 12-0 start this season.  They have only played three true road games and two were wins by less than this margin with a 5-point win at Temple and a 2-point win at Washington State.  They also beat lowly Florida Gulf Coast by 17.  This will be their toughest road test of the season.

Making matters worse for the Trojans is that they have been off for three weeks with their last game on December 18th due to COVID.  There will be a rust factor with them.  There is no rust factor for the Golden Bears, who just played ASU on January 2nd and have won five straight coming in.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following nine or more consecutive wins.  They have failed to cover three of their last four with shaky home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State and UC-Irvine all by 12 points or less.  California is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Bears are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Take California Thursday.

20* Celtics/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York ML +106

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 97-99 loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  Four of five starters played at least 32 minutes last night including over 37 from Tatum, over 35 from Brown and over 33 from Smart.

The Celtics really should be 1-5 SU in their last six games overall as they needed a 14-point comeback in the final five minutes to beat the Magic in overtime as 10-point home favorites.  They just aren't playing well right now despite being healthy as the chemistry is just bad with this team.

The Knicks have recently gotten healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  They will likely be without Kemba Walker tonight, but he is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, just ask the Celtics.  They aren't missing much not having him on the floor.

New York is 31-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons, including 20-6 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 during this stretch.  Boston is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games vs. teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game.  The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +27

I love the spot for Long Beach State tonight.  They Beach already played at UCLA once this season back on November 15th and lost 79-100 as 26-point underdogs.  Now they are 27-point dogs in the rematch.

UCLA probably thinks it can just show up and win tonight.  And there will be a rust factor for the Bruins, who have been off since December 11th so nearly a full month.  They cannot be trusted to cover this inflated 27-point spread given the spot and the fact that these teams already played once to a 21-point game.

Long Beach State knocked the dust off yesterday with a 90-64 win over Westcliff.  That came after their last game was on December 12th and it was a great showing, only losing 62-73 at USC as 24-point dogs.  That's a 12-0 USC team right now.

Long Beach State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons, including 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  The Beach are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  The Beach are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four losses coming by 4, 7, 11 and 21 points.  Roll with Long Beach State Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +7.5

The Toronto Raptors have gotten healthy recently and are playing as well as anyone in the NBA.  They have gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They beat the Clippers by 8, the Knicks by 15 and the Spurs by 25 in their last three games overall coming in.

Yes, the Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that is being factored too much into this line tonight.  Because they won 129-104 over the Spurs, they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter and nobody played more than 32 minutes.  They'll have plenty left in the tank tonight, and they won't be lacking any motivation facing the defending champion Bucks.

Milwaukee has played and extremely soft schedule of late with its last four games coming against the Magic (twice), Pelicans and Pistons.  They lost outright as 16-point favorites against the Pistons.  Their previous two games against better teams in the Celtics (won by 4) and Mavericks (won by 7) were close.  They'll be without both Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen tonight among a few others.

The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs.  The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves after going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off a double-header at the Staple Center where they had a close loss to the Lakers before beating the short-handed Clippers outright.  Now they return home and this is a definite flat spot.

The Timberwolves go from being an underdog in 12 of their last 13 games overall to being a 7.5-point favorite against the Thunder.  In fact, the Timberwolves haven't been more than a 3.5-point favorite in any of their last 31 games.  We'll take advantage and fade them in this hefty favorite role when it's uncertain whether or not D'Angelo Russell or Karl-Anthony Towns will return to the lineup tonight.

What I do know is the Oklahoma City Thunder have been undervalued all season.  They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and now they get three key players back tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley and Tre Mann from COVID.  They have won five of their last nine games outright as underdogs and they are a live dog again tonight, especially with their best player in Gilgeous-Alexander back.

The Thunder are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Timberwolves with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 ATS after losing three of their last four games this season.  Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. a team that allows 108 or more points per game this season.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as home favorites.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Wizards OVER 228.5

The OVER is 15-3 in Rockets last 18 games overall.  They have allowed 104 or more points in all 18 games.  But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 19 of their last 21 games overall.  They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in all four.

The Washington Wizards are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They ahve score 109 or more points in six of their last seven games.  But they have allowed 117 or more points in five of their last six.  They are coming off two straight high-scoring games with 245 combined points against the Hornets and 239 combined points against the Bulls.  It should be more of the same against the Rockets tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Rockets and Wizards have combined for 250 or more points in four of their last five meetings.  Houston is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 120 points or more in three straight games.   The OVER is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 games following a loss.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Wizards last seven games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joseph's +4.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Davidson Wildcats.  They have gone 9-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset win over Alabama as 9.5-point dogs on a neutral in their last lined game.  This is now a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, and you're paying a premium to back them at this point.

St. Joseph's has quietly put together a nice run itself in going 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Hawks have an upset win over Georgetown as well as an extremely impressive 83-56 win at Richmond as 11.5-point underdogs last time out.  They are more than capable of not only covering tonight, but upsetting Davidson.

St. Joseph's is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Davidson.  The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better.  St. Joseph's is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game where it had two or fewer steals.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  St. Joseph's is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. Joseph's Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +12.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All seven games were decided by 9 points or fewer and that includes games against quality competitive in Virginia, St. John's and Notre Dame as all three of those games were decided by 1 or 2 points.

Louisville has no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh tonight.  The Cardinals aren't blowing anyone out other than overmatched non-conference opponents, and even then they only beat Southern by 12 and lost outright to Furman as a 9-point favorite.  Their three ACC wins have all come by 5 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a home loss.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after committing eight or fewer turnovers last game.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games following a road win.  The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

Memphis is grossly overvalued this season and continues to be here as 14-point favorites over Tulsa.  The Tigers are just 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season while battling COVID issues currently.  They are getting too much respect after their blowout win at Wichita State last time out.

The Tigers had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.  They lost by 19 to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, lost outright to Murray State as a 10-point favorite and lost outright to Tulane as a 6-point favorite.  How can this team be trusted to lay 14 points given those results?

Tulsa is 6-6 this season but all six losses came by 14 points or less, including five by 7 points or fewer.  And the Golden Hurricane simply have Memphis' number.  Tulsa is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings winning outright as underdogs four times.  Tulsa hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Memphis by more than 9 points, making for an 8-0 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Take Tulsa Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +18.5

Georgia Tech was hampered all season by illness and injury.  But they are finally fully healthy for the first time and it's starting to show.  After beating Georgia State 72-62 as 5-point favorites on a neutral, they gave Louisville a run for its money in a 64-67 loss as 3-point dogs.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets as they are a much better team than their 6-6 record would suggest, they just haven't been healthy.  Now they are healthy and ready to give Duke a run for its money tonight.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.

Few teams have played Duke as tough as Georgia Tech in recent seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Blue Devils.  They haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Blue Devils by more than 13 points.  In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 17 points or fewer.

The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Josh Pastner is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes their win in Brooklyn last night as 6.5-point underdogs.  That makes this a letdown spot for them after beating the Nets, and they will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.

Cleveland has been grossly undervalued all season.  The Cavaliers are 21-16 SU & 25-11-1 ATS in their 37 games this season.  They had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.  They get one of their best players back from COVID tonight in Darius Garland (19.5 PPG, 7.3 APG), which is huge because they are already without Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio.  They are healthier than they have been in a few weeks right now.

Cleveland is 10-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest ML -115

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 11-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to LSU, Louisville and Miami.  They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 19.8 points per game.

Florida State is clearly down this season at 7-4.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as they have consistently been overvalued.  They lost by 28 at Purdue, were upset as 6.5-point home favorites by Syracuse and were upset as 6.5-point favorites against South Carolina on a neutral.  They also only beat Boston by 1 as 17.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

Florida State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  They have played three true road games this season, losing by 16 at Florida, by 28 at Purdue and only beating a bad NC State team by 2 as 2.5-point favorites.  Roll with Wake Forest Tuesday.

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2

The LSU Tigers opened 12-0 before finally suffering their first defeat on the road at Auburn in their SEC opener.  Look for them to bounce back tonight at home where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, the Tigers are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 32.7 points per game.  They face a Kentucky team that has only played one true road game this season, losing 62-66 at Notre Dame as 4.5-point favorites.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Kentucky) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5.5

The Atlanta Hawks recently got some players back from COVID and they are getting even more back tonight, including Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari and Delon Wright.  They already got Trae Young and Clint Capela back.  They are getting closer to full strength and should make easy work of the struggling, short-handed Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 3-14 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have lost four straight games by 14 points or more.  It won't go any better for them tonight as they will be without three starters in CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic.  They could be without Anfernee Simons as well.

Portland is 2-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games.  Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Take the Hawks Monday.

20* Heat/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 216.5

The Golden State Warriors are back to close to full strength and it showed in their 123-116 win over the Utah Jazz on the road last time out.  Look for them to hang a big number on the Miami Heat, who are missing their key defensive player in Bam Adebayo and have taken a step back on defense without him.  They are also missing several other key defenders.

The Heat have had to try and outscore teams of late because they have allowed 110 or more points in four of their last five.  They have done a good job of it by going 5-1 in their last six games while scoring 113 or more points in five of those six games.

Recent meetings between the Warriors and Heat have topped this 216.5-point total.  In fact, each of the last seven meetings have seen 214 or more combined points with six of those seeing 218 or more combined points.  They have averaged 226.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last seven meetings.

The OVER is 35-15-1 in Heat last 51 games playing on zero rest.  The OVER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The OVER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/76ers OVER 219.5

The OVER is 14-3 in Rockets last 17 games overall.  They have allowed 104 or more points in all 17 games.  But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 18 of their last 20 games overall.  They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team.

The 76ers figure to hang a big number on them as they recently got all their playmakers back on offense and have now scored 110 or more points in three straight.  They should top 120 tonight as the Rockets have allowed 118 or more points in seven straight coming in.  The 76ers have allowed at least 101 points in nine of their last 12 and the Rockets should top 100 tonight.

The Rockets and 76ers have combined for at least 226 points in each of their last four meetings.  They have averaged 234.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those four meetings.

The OVER is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 games following a loss.  The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Towson -2.5

Towson is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers have gone 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games this season.  Even their four losses were impressive as they lost to Monmouth by 8, Pittsburgh by 4, San Francisco by 10 and Ohio State by 11 while covering the spread in three of those against four quality teams.

Drexel is 5-5 this season with losses to Syracuse by 15, Tulane, Jacksonville State, Princeton and Abilene Christian by 17.  The five wins all came against suspect competition in Neumann, St. Joe's, Charlotte, Farleigh Dickinson and Coppin State.  Drexel has been off since December 14th due to COVID and will be rusty playing their first game in three weeks.

Towson is +8.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense.  Drexel is +1.4 points per game based on the same factor, meaning Towson is 7.5 points better than Drexel on a neutral.  So we are getting the Tigers at a discount as only 2.5-point road favorites considering there won't be much of a home-court advantage for the Dragons tonight.

The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Towson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  Towson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Drexel is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good defensive teams that allows 42% shooting or lower.  Roll with Towson Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 209.5

Both teams are missing a ton of players that will have this game being played at a snail's pace and make points hard to come by.  Look for a defensive battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks tonight because of it.

The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and could be without Luguentz Dort tonight.  They just played in a defensive battle in a 95-80 win over the Knicks last time out for just 175 combined points.

The Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Trey Burke and could be without Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Frank Ntilikina tonight.  They just combined for 189 and 208 points in their last two games, both against the Kings who are a great offensive team and terrible defensive team.

The UNDER is 11-4 in Mavericks last 15 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Thunder last eight games overall.  The Thunder are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Pacers/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be without their top three guards in Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland tonight.  The Indiana Pacers are going to be without their PG as well in Malcolm Brogdon as well as two other key guards in Jeremy Lamb and Chris Duarte.

Because of these absences due to COVID or injury, both offenses are going to be out of sync.  Points are going to be hard to come by and this is going to be a defensive battle with the offenses run through their big men more than normal.  It will be slowed down to a snail's pace.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Pacers last 11 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Pacers last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Pacers last eight games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Cavaliers last 17 home games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are 8-4 this season with their four losses coming to Memphis, UAB, Belmont and Auburn with the latter three losses all coming by 5 points or less.  They also beat Boise State on the road and Boston College at home along with solid wins over Stephen F. Austin and Illinois State on a neutral.

Richmond is overvalued this season.  The Spiders have lost almost all of their step up games against Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State.  Five of their last six wins have come by single-digits.  They finally ran out of luck last time out, getting blasted 56-83 as 11.5-pint home favorites against St. Joseph's, failing to cover the spread by 38.5 points.

Saint Louis is +12 points per game based off what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, while Richmond is +9 points per game based on the same criteria.  That means Saint Louis is 3 points better on a neutral, so they aren't even factoring in the huge home-court advantage for the Billikens today.

Richmond is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Spiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where they made 28% of their shots or worse.  The Billikens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after having lost two of their last three games.  Saint Louis is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  Bet Saint Louis Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off six straight victories.  That includes their 120-108 home win over the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Golden State Warriors tonight.

Meanwhile, the Warriors come in on three days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They will give a big effort here, especially since they have recently gotten a lot healthier with Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins returning to the lineup.  This is arguably the best team in the NBA when healthy and they should not be catching 5 points to the Jazz given the favorable spot for them and the terrible one for the home team.

Utah is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games following a division game.  Golden State is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Golden State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  Utah is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  They are getting way too much respect from the books of late, including tonight.  Roll with the Warriors Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pistons UNDER 224.5

This will be the 2nd meeting in a week between the Spurs and Pistons.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I look for this game to go well UNDER this 224.5-point total because of the familiarity and a few other reasons.

I just don't know how the Pistons are going to score enough points to get this game over the total.  They have 12 players out due to injury or COVID, including their two best scorers in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham.  They only managed 85 points last time out against the Knicks while being short-handed.

The Spurs aren't going to be looking to push the tempo much because they are a tired team.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-118 loss in Memphis last night.  That came after a 104-110 loss in Salt Lake City the game prior.

San Antonio is 12-4 UNDER in road games this season.  Detroit is 27-14 UNDER in its last 41 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or greater (Detroit) - after one or more consecutive unders, a terrible offensive team scoring 104 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 points per game are 35-10 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +2

The Toledo Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are 9-3 with all three losses coming on the road to quality competition in Michigan State, Richmond and Oakland.  They covered against the first two teams in their road losses.

The Rockets have pretty much been crushing everyone else.  They are +7.6 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense.  Kent State is only +0.5 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, so the Rockets are 7 points better on a neutral by my numbers and getting 2 points here on the road.

Kent State is just 5-6 this season.  The Golden Flashes have losses to Towson State at home by 15 as 6.5-point favorites, Southern U at home as 14.5-point favorites and Central Michigan at home as 16-point favorites.  If they're losing to those three teams outright at home, they aren't beating Toledo.

The Rockets are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Toledo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kent State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take Toledo Saturday.

20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their 12-0 start this season.  They have upset Xavier by 12 as 9-point dogs, Memphis by 19 as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton by 6 as 5.5-point dogs, and Iowa by 20 as 5-point dogs.  They have proven themselves against quality competition.

Yet here they are catching 8.5 points at home to the Baylor Bears.  It's time to 'sell high' on Baylor, which won the national championship last year and is off to a 12-0 start of its own this year.  There won't be a better time to 'sell high' on them the rest of the season in my opinion than here in their Big 12 road opener against the Cyclones.

Baylor has only had to play one true road game this season.  That resulted in a 78-70 win at Oregon as 7.5-point favorites.  But that is a down Oregon team this season, and the Bears needed a late surge not only to cover, but to actually win the game straight up.  Iowa State is much better than Oregon this season and now catching more points than Oregon was.

Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  A bad Cyclones team that went 2-22 last year gave Baylor a run for its money twice, losing by 11 as 15.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 24-point road dogs.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 217.5

The Sacramento Kings just beat the Dallas Mavericks 95-94 for 189 combined points on Wednesday.  Now they meet in Sacramento just two days later and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This one will stay well UNDER the total as well.

Amazingly, the Kings and Mavericks combined for just 189 points despite both teams shooting well from the floor.  The Mavericks shot 48% and the Kings 46.9%.  But the Mavericks have to play at a snails' pace to have a chance right now with all their are missing.

Indeed, the Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber and Trey Burke right now due to COVID.  They have been smart in staying competitive by slowing down the pace and playing great defense.  That will be their formula against the Kings again tonight.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five games as favorites.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Mavericks last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls just got several players back from COVID and are playing like one of the best teams in the NBA right now because of it.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 5 points or more.  That will be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread at Indiana.

The Pacers are really struggling right now in going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two victories coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pistons and Rockets.  Each of their last four losses have come by 8 points or more.  They are without Malcolm Brodgon and Chris Duarte right now due to COVID among a few others.

Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.  Chicago is 21-11 ATS in all games this season.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Suns/Celtics Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are 27-7 this season and in much better shape than the Boston Celtics right now in the COVID and injury department.  They have five of their top six scorers available for this game against the Celtics with the exception behind De'Andre Ayton, who they have managed to play well without anyway.

The Boston Celtics will be without their best player in Jayson Tatum (25.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and their third-leading scorer in Dennis Schroder (16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) today.  Boston has lost three straight coming in, including an 82-91 upset home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point favorites last time out.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Suns are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston.  They won 111-90 at home in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +15

Denver is much better than its 5-10 record would indicate.  Eight of the 10 losses have come by 14 points or more.  And I fully expect them to stay within 15 points or Oral Roberts as this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pioneers.

Denver is only getting outscored by 3.8 points per game on the season.  The Pioneers are actually only -1.5 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  Compare that to Oral Roberts and we have an easy play here on Denver.

Indeed, Oral Roberts is only +3.1 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  So the Golden Eagles are only +4.6 points per game better than Denver on a neutral based on my numbers.  So they shouldn't be 15-point home favorites here.

The Pioneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Oral Roberts is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Pioneers are 7-0 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Roll with Denver Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -2

South Alabama is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Jaguars are 10-3 this season and 7-2 ATS in lined games.  They are +8.3 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.

UT-Arlington has been a huge disappointment this season at 4-7 SU & 3-6 ATS.  They are -2.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  So that means South Alabama would be 11.2 points per game better than UT-Arlington on a neutral.  

So we are getting tremendous value on the Jaguars as only 2-point road favorites here.  Kenpom has South Alabama roughly 7 points better on a neutral.  Close road losses to Alabama by 5 and Wichita State by 6 as 20.5 and 12.5-point dogs, respectively, shows what the Jaguars are capable of.  Arlington lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 9 to Oral Roberts, by 19 to Utah State and by 28 to North Texas.

Arlington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a home win.  The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Mavericks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Arlington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  Take South Alabama Thursday.

15* SDSU/NDSU Summit League ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -2

South Dakota State +8.4 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  North Dakota State is actually -0.6 points per game based on what their opponents normally allow on offense and defense.

That means I have South Dakota State 9 points better than North Dakota State on a neutral.  So getting them as only 2-point road favorites here against North Dakota State is a huge discount.  Kenpom also has the Jackrabbits nearly 9 points better on a neutral.

The Jackrabbits have also played the tougher schedule facing the 144th-ranked slate compared to North Dakota State and the 264th-ranked slate.  The Bison are getting too much respect for their 7-0 home record against Concordia-St. Paul, Tarleton State, Idaho, Northland, CS-Northridge, Indiana State and South Dakota.  This will be by far their stiffest home test of the season.

North Dakota State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 85 points or more.  The Bison are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. explosive offensive teams that average 84 or more points per game.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  South Dakota State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bison are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Roll with South Dakota State Thursday.

20* Michigan/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines after a shaky 7-4 start to the season against a brutal schedule.  They are better than they have shown thus far, and I look for them to handle their business in their final game before the new year.

UCF has struggled when stepping up in class.  They lost at home to Oklahoma and on the road to Auburn by 17.  This will be one of their toughest tests of the entire season, and it's basically in the pick 'em price range where Michigan just has to win to cover.

Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game.  UCF is 2-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The Wolverines are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites.  The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Michigan Thursday.

15* Tennessee/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have been overconfident since a 91-82 upset win as 9.5-point underdogs to Gonzaga.  They have since gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss to Davidson as 9.5-point favorites that will have them pissed off and playing with a chip on their shoulder in this SEC opener against Tennessee.

The overconfident, relaxed team here is going to be Tennessee.  That is because the Volunteers are coming off a 77-73 win over Arizona to hand the Wildcats their first loss of the season.  That was a massive victory, and it was at home while this will be just the 2nd true road game for the Volunteers this season.  This is a much stiffer test playing this pissed off Alabama squad.

The Crimson Tide are 6-0 SU at home this season and have a huge home-court advantage.  The Volunteers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Alabama is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Take Alabama Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 227

Charlotte ranks 1st in pace this season and 2nd in offensive efficiency.  The Hornets are also dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  That has made them a tremendous OVER team this season and they should take part in a shootout with the Indiana Pacers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and Hornets with combined scores of 261, 245 and 239 points.  So this total of 227 simply has not been set high enough based on recent history between these two teams.  None of those three games went to overtime, either.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in Hornets last eight games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 home games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games as home favorites.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler -2

The Butler Bulldogs are 7-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Texas A&M.  Three of those teams are three of the best teams in the country.  They also upset Oklahoma as an 11-point road underdog.

While Butler has been through the gauntlet in the non-conference that will have them prepared for the Big East schedule, DePaul is grossly overvalued due to a 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS start against a much softer schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons in their Big East opener.

DePaul played eight straight home games to open the season against soft competition.  They played their last two on the road against more soft competition in Louisville and Illinois Chicago.  While the Louisville upset was solid, that is a down Louisville team that is nowhere near as good as they were expected to be coming into the season.  This is the toughest test of the season for the Blue Demons in my opinion.

Butler is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Michigan State.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 meetings with DePaul with 12 wins by double-digits.  That includes 7-0 SU in their last seven home meetings.  Bet Butler Wednesday.