15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

The No. 20 Dayton Flyers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers for their Top 25 ranking.  They have opened 11-2 but have now failed to cover three of their last four.  I think it’s time to continue ’selling high’ on the Flyers tonight. 

They should not be laying double-digits on the road against a solid La Salle team in this conference rivalry.  It’s a La Salle team that has been one of the most underrated in the country and continues to fly under the radar.  The Explorers are 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season. 

La Salle only lost by 5 to Temple as 6-point dogs and by 11 on the road to Villanova as 18-point dogs to show that they can play with good teams.  They will prove it again tonight as they give Dayton a run for its money at home.  And they have the rest and preparation advantage.  The Explorers come in on four days’ rest, while the Flyers come in on only two days’ rest. 

La Salle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 60 points or less in three straight games coming in.  Dayton is 9-22 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  La Salle is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  The Explorers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Take La Salle Thursday. 

15* Raptors/Heat NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Miami -5 

The Miami Heat had won five straight including wins over Philadelphia (twice), Indiana and Utah.  Then they laid an egg on Monday and lost outright as a 14-point favorite against Washington’s G-League team. 

It’s safe to say the Heat are going to come back highly motivated for a win at home tonight over the Toronto Raptors after getting that wake-up call.  And they will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.  The Heat are 15-1 at home this season and winning by nearly 12 points per game. 

The Raptors are in a much tougher spot here.  They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and are already playing short-handed.  The Raptors remain without their best player in Pacal Siakam, starter Marc Gasol and key reserve Norman Powell.  I don’t think they will be able to hang with Miami tonight without these three. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that was beaten by 24 or more points against the spread in their last three are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 11-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 15.0 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Heat Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -7.5 

The Rhode Island Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season and are off to an 8-3 start.  Their only three losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia & LSU.  They beat Alabama by 14 and Providence by 14 as well. 

Rhode Island should handle this Brown team that is just 5-6 on the season.  All six losses for Brown have come by 11 points or more.  They lost by 21 to Sacred Heart, by 12 to UMass-Lowell, by 20 to Navy, by 16 to Stony Brook, by 11 to St. John’s and by 25 to Duke.  Those results alone show they can’t hang with Rhode Island.  But their five wins have come against Bryant (by 2), Canisius (by 7), Quinnipiac (by 2), New Jersey Tech and Merrimack. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Brown) - after scoring 50 points or less against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in two straight games are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1997.   

The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games off an ATS win.  Roll with Rhode Island Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +13 

The San Diego State Aztecs head into the new year overvalued due to their 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS records.  Now they’re laying 13 points here to Fresno State, which is simply too much. 

Fresno State heads into 2020 undervalued at 4-9 SU & 4-6 ATS.  But the Bulldogs have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate.  Indeed, seven of their nine losses came by 7 points or less.  The only exceptions were a 10-point loss to St. Mary’s on a neutral and a 14-point loss at Oregon. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 12 meetings with San Diego State.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 13-point spread.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Roll with Fresno State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +1.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on them and fade them here as road favorites at Providence. 

The Providence Friars got off to a slow start this season, but they rebounded with a 70-48 home win over Texas as 1-point favorites last time out.  And now they’ve had nine days to get ready for Georgetown after last playing on December 21st.  Meanwhile, Georgetown only has two days to get ready for Providence after facing American on December 28th. 

Providence wants revenge on Georgetown after losing both meetings to them last year.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Second-leading scorer Mac McClung (15.5 PPG) is questionable to play for the Hoyas tonight. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Providence) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Providence Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2 

The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home this season.  And they come into this game highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Miami and New Orleans.  Plus, they are fresh and ready to go on two days’ rest and will get Malcolm Brogdon back from injury tonight. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have been awful on the road this season.  They are just 7-10 in road games.  They did beat the Pacers at home 119-116 in their lone meeting this season, but now it’s revenge time for Indiana at home this time around. 

Plays against road teams (Philadelphia) - off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-18 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* Seton Hall/DePaul FS1 ANNIHILATOR on DePaul -1 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 12-1 start and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 1-point home favorites here against the Seton Hall Pirates. 

DePaul already has impressive road wins over the likes of Iowa as 9.5-point dogs, Boston College as PK and Minnesota as 4-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech at home with their only loss coming to a solid Buffalo team. 

Seton Hall has played just three true road games this season and lost two of them to Rutgers and Iowa State.  And the Pirates could be without their best player again tonight in Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), who is questionable with a concussion.  They’ll be without 3rd-leading scorer Sando Mamukelashvilli (10.9 PPG) as well. 

Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  DePaul is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Seton Hall.  They won both meetings outright as underdogs last year.  Roll with DePaul Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -8.5 

The Miami Heat have won five straight to improve to 24-8 on the season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  Now they should make easy work of the Washington Wizards on the road tonight. 

The Wizards stand little to no chance of even being competitive tonight with all of their injuries.  They are without Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant and they could be without Bradley Beal, who is questionable. 

The Heat are 12-2 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  Miami is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +4 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with three upset wins and a 120-98 blowout of Indiana yesterday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that blowout allowed them to rest their starters late. 

The Houston Rockets will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Nets 108-98 at home last night.  Now they have to travel, while the Pelicans get to stay at home.  That’s a huge advantage. 

The Rockets will sit Russell Westbrook today and they could be without Clint Cappela, who is questionable.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* Kansas/Stanford ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford +6.5 

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming to Butler by a single point 67-68 on a neutral. 

The Cardinal have obviously been flying under the radar when you consider they are 9-3 ATS this season.  And now they are catching 6.5 points to what I believe is an overrated Kansas team that does not shoot the 3 ball very well.  They are loaded inside, but they don’t have many shooters. 

Kansas is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games, including 2-11 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Stanford is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Cardinal are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Bet Stanford Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11.5 

Both the Magic and Bucks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the situation is much better for the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 8 days. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after sitting out last night against the Hawks.  Eric Bledsoe remains out for the Bucks.  This line indicates Giannis will play, but it would be a huge bonus if he didn’t. 

The Magic will be motivated for revenge after losing twice already to the Bucks this season.  They only lost 101-110 at Milwaukee on December 9th a few weeks ago as 13-point dogs. And I think they can stay within single-digits in their 3rd meeting as well. 

The Magic are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Orlando is 4-0-2 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

We are getting the Miami Heat cheap at home tonight.  The Heat are 14-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Lakers by 3 points.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year. 

The Philadelphia 76ers are just 7-9 on the road this season and actually getting outscored on the road.  While both teams are playing a back-to-back, the situation is worse for the 76ers because they have to travel from Orlando to Miami, while the Heat get to stay at home after beating the Pacers last night. 

The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Celtics UNDER 217 

I love the UNDER in this game between the Raptors and Celtics.  I love it because of the situation.  These teams just played each other on Christmas Day a couple days ago, so they are very familiar with one another.  And it’s their 3rd meeting already this season as well. 

I have a hard time believing both teams will shoot as well as they did in that meeting.  The Celtics won 118-102 for 220 combined points.  The Celtics shot 50% from the field, while the Raptors shot 47.5%.  The familiarity will help out the defenses in this one and lead to a lower-scoring game than that game was on Christmas Day. 

Toronto is 11-2 UNDER off a loss against a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 17-6 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Raptors last seven games off an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight Saturday games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games playing on zero rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +14 

Florida International is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 9-3 SU & 6-3 ATS start this season.  They returned four starters from last year and are certainly a contender to win Conference USA this year. 

Florida International’s three losses this season all came by 9 points or less.  And two of those were on the road against Power 5 teams.  They only lost 69-77 as 16.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 77-86 as 17.5-point dogs at NC State. 

Now, the Golden Panthers are catching 14 points here against a down Minnesota team that is just 6-5 on the season.  The Golden Gophers are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Ohio State and Oklahoma State, and they have Purdue on deck.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them today, and I don’t expect them to show up at all. 

Florida International is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Gophers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games.  Bet Florida International Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3 

This is a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day.  That makes this a prime letdown spot for the 76ers now.  Plus, they’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days. 

Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic come in on three days’ rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Not to mention, they are highly motivated for a win after dropping five of their last seven.  And the Magic are finally near full strength now in the health department, which will make them dangerous moving forward. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Magic have won three straight home meetings with the 76ers outright and I think they get the job done outright again given the favorable spot for them tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - a good shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5%-43.5%), after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-19 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Cavs/Celtics NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +13.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won three straight games coming in and are now ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go coming in on three days’ rest. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics.  Boston is coming off a huge win over Toronto on Christmas Day on the road.  That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially since they’ve already beaten the Cavs twice this season.  I like the value with the Cavs given the spot and playing with double-revenge catching a whopping 13.5 points. 

Plays against any team (Boston) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Cleveland) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games off three straight games where they made 50% of their shots or more.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* Spurs/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -5.5 

Luka Doncic returned to practice on Tuesday and is likely to make his return from an ankle injury tonight.  Playing without Doncic, the Mavs came together as a team and showed they are more than just a one trick pony.  It will help them moving forward. 

In the game they lost Doncic in the opening minutes against Miami, the Mavs took the Heat to overtime and only lost 118-122.  They came back and upset Milwaukee on the road as 10-point dogs in their next game.  They only lost to Boston by 6 at home, pulled the 117-98 upset win as 8.5-point dogs at Philadelphia, and blew a 30-point lead at Toronto in a 107-110 loss as 3.5-point dogs. 

That loss to Toronto wouldn’t have sat well with them over Christmas.  Look for them to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  And they’ll be fresh and ready to go on three days’ rest.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. 

The Spurs are coming off a win over the Grizzlies, they have exactly two winning streaks of two games or more all season.  The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a win dating back to last year.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5 

The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do not like each other based on their close proximity.  The Knicks want revenge from two losses to the Nets by 4 and 2 points in their first two meetings this season.  I expect this game to go down to the wire as well, so getting 7.5 points is a great value. 

The Knicks have played their best basketball of the season over the last couple weeks.  They are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset both the Kings as 8.5-point dogs and Warriors as 4.5-point dogs on the road, while also crushing the Hawks by 23 as 2.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by 6 at Denver as well.  Their only blowout losses during this stretch came to Milwaukee and Miami, two of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Knicks have certainly held their own against the Nets.  New York is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday. 

20* Pelicans/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10 

After losing 13 straight games, the New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to show some life and play up to their potential.  They have won two of their last three with upset wins at Minnesota as 3-point dogs and at Portland as 6-point dogs. 

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans now after losing 14 of their last 16.  They are catching double-digits here against the Denver Nuggets when they shouldn’t be.  They’ll give the Nuggets a run for their money on Christmas Night, especially now that they are fully healthy outside Zion Williamson. 

It’s also a good time to ‘sell high’ on the Nuggets, who have won seven straight coming in. But only two of those wins came by double-digits.  And this is a tired Nuggets team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 12th game in 21 days.  The Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days Wednesday. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Nuggets by double-digits, making for a 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread.  The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Lakers ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 223 

Two of the best teams in the NBA square off at Staples Center on Christmas Day when the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Los Angeles Clippers.  I expect this game to be played close to the vest as these teams are quickly becoming two of the biggest rivals in the NBA. 

You can bet both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win in this matchup.  And both teams have such great records this year largely because they are playing defense.  The Clippers are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Lakers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

Lebron James (back) and Anthony Davis (knee) are both banged up right now for the Lakers.  Both are questionable to play Wednesday, though chances are they’ll both suit up.  I’m expecting a result similar to their first meeting this season when the Clippers won 112-102 for 214 combined points.  It’s going to be a defensive battle. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Lakers) - after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games, a well rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 26-4 (86.7%) since 1996. 

The Lakers are 19-5 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 21-5 UNDER In road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors are in a world of hurt right now injury-wise.  They are playing without their best player in Pascal Siakam along with fellow starter Marc Gasol and Norman Powell.  They don’t stand a chance of beating the Celtics without these three Wednesday. 

The Raptors just pulled a 30-point comeback win over Dallas at home on Sunday before going into overtime in a loss to Indiana on Monday.  It’s safe to say this is a tired, short-handed team now playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight. 

Meanwhile, Boston comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  They are also playing just their 4th game in 13 days.  They are coming off two straight blowout home wins over Detroit by 21 and Charlotte by 26.  This team is playing well right now and the Raptors won’t be able to slow them down given the spot. 

Plays against underdogs (Toronto) - off a cover where they lost straight up as a dog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-20 (76.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on any team (Boston) - off two straight wins by 10 or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in four straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6 

The Sacramento Kings have lost three straight road games coming in.  They return home here highly motivated for a victory to get a win before Christmas.  Look for them to likely pull the upset at home over the Houston Rockets. 

While we’re ‘buying low’ on the Kings off three straight losses, we’re ‘selling high’ on the Rockets off three straight wins.  They went on the road and upset the Clippers before beating a banged-up Suns team on the road as 9-point favorites.  Now they will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, which makes this a tough spot for them. 

Sacramento is 17-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 14-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three years.  Sacramento is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.   

The Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Sacramento is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Kings pulled the 119-118 upset at Houston as 12-point road dogs in their first meeting this season, and they are upset-minded again tonight.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4 

The Miami Heat are showing great value as only 4-point home favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Heat are 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game on average. 

The Jazz are just 7-8 SU & 5-9-1 ATS on the road this season.  Utah is without starting PG Mike Conley as he just can’t seem to get healthy.  And I think the Jazz are overvalued due to their five-game winning streak against some bad teams in Minnesota, Golden State, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte.  All five of those games went down to the wire, too. 

Miami comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Friday.  And the Heat have the next three days off as well.  They are looking to put forth a big effort here knowing they get that time off, plus they are fresh. 

The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 219.5 

Two of the top defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pacers are 7th.  That has been key to both of their successes this season. 

It’s no surprise the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bucks and Pacers have combined for 219 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219.5-point total. 

Milwaukee beat Indiana 102-83 in their first meeting this season for just 185 combined points.  And the Bucks aren’t at full strength right now as they will be without PG Eric Bledsoe and his 15 PPG and likely Wesley Mathews as well.  Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for Indiana. 

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 28-9-1 in Pacers last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +18 

The Houston Cougars returned just one starter from a great team last year.  They have been overvalued all season.  They have upset losses to BYU and Oklahoma State at home, and they have struggled to put teams away. 

Portland can hang with Houston.  The Pilots are 8-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with their largest loss coming by 11 points.  Terry Porter is doing a good job with this program.  The Pilots only lost by 11 at USC as 23-point favorites, and they pulled the upset at Portland State as 6.5-point dogs. 

The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Pilots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take Portland Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings PK 

It’s a bad spot for both the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  Both teams played last night in road losses to the Pacers and Cavs, respectively.  But it’s clearly a worse spot for the Grizzlies, and the Kings are the better team in this matchup, so getting them at a pick ‘em is a great value. 

Sacramento had two days off prior to that game at Indiana.  So the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 4 days here.  Memphis will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I trust the Kings will have more in the tank than the Grizzlies as a result. 

The Kings are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game this season.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two years.  Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.  The Kings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Evansville +3 

Evansville is off a bad loss at Jacksonville State and will return home highly motivated for a win when they host Murray State today.  This is an Evansville team that upset Kentucky on the road as 24.5-point dogs earlier this season to flash their potential. 

Murray State is just 6-4 this season.  They lost to Drake by 10 and La Salle by 11 on a neutral.  They also lost by 19 at Tennessee and lost at Missouri State.  While Murray State has been great at home, they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in all games played on the highway. 

Evansville is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Roll with Evansville Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dayton -5 

The Dayton Flyers are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  They are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS with their only loss coming to Kansas, the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.  I expect Dayton to make easy work of Colorado. 

This Colorado team has been disappointing.  They returned all five starters so expectations were high.  And while they are 9-2 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS.  They lost by 14 to Kansas while Dayton only lost by 6 to Kansas.  Colorado was also upset by Northern Iowa at home, and they really don’t have many good wins. 

I like the rest advantage for Dayton in this one.  They have three days’ rest to get ready for Colorado after last playing on Tuesday.  Colorado just played Prairie View A&M at home on Thursday, so they have only had one day to get ready for Dayton.  That’s not enough prep time to get ready to face at team of Dayton’s caliber. 

Colorado is 1-14 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two years.  Take Dayton Saturday. 

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -3 

This game is technically on a neutral court, but it will definitely feel like a home court for Oklahoma City behind played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  I think we are getting the Cowboys at a discount today as only 3-point favorites over Minnesota. 

The Gophers are definitely in a letdown spot off their shocking upset home win over Ohio State as 7.5-point dogs.  This is a team that just lost by 20 in their previous game at Iowa, so it came out of nowhere.  They also already have losses to Oklahoma, Butler, Utah and DePaul with five losses on the season.  They aren’t nearly as good as they showed against Ohio State. 

Oklahoma State is 8-2 this season and every bit as good as its record.  The Cowboys beat Syracuse by 14 on a neutral and Ole Miss by 41 on a neutral.  They also upset Houston on the road as 7-point dogs.  They’ve had five days off since that win over Houston and will be ready to go tonight. 

The Golden Gophers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a win.  The Golden Gophers are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a dog of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10 

The New York Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset both Golden State and Sacramento on the road, and covered in a 6-point loss at 10-point dogs at Denver.  They also crushed Atlanta 143-120 at home last time out. 

The Miami Heat return home from a three-game road trip here.  The Heat are in a letdown spot off their upset win at Philadelphia as 9-point dogs last time out.  They won’t take the Knicks nearly as seriously as they took the 76ers in that huge showdown Wednesday night. 

The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games.  The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9 

The Boston Celtics should make easy work of the Detroit Pistons tonight.  The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin (16.3 PPG), Luke Kennard (15.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (9.1 PPG).  They have zero chance of making this game competitive with the Celtics without these three guys. 

The Celtics have lost two of their last three coming in, so they won’t be taking the Pistons lightly.  But Boston is also rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Celtics are 10-1 at home this season, while the Pistons are 4-9 on the road. 

The Celtics are 22-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 15-2 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Detroit is 3-14 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Akron -4.5 

John Groce has the Akron Zips playing some great basketball this season.  The Zips are off to an 8-2 start this year with their only losses coming by 10 as 12-point dogs at West Virginia and by 6 as 18-point dogs at Louisville.  If they can hang with both those teams, they can hang with anyone. 

Ron Hunter is also doing a great job in his first season at Tulane.  The Green Wave are off to an 8-2 start as well, but their results aren’t nearly as impressive.  They lost by 14 to Mississippi State on a neutral as 10-pint dogs and were blown out by 24 by Saint Louis on a neutral as 4.5-point dogs. 

Tulane is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Akron is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Roll with Akron Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

It’s the grudge match tonight between the Clippers and Rockets.  They have split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning reach.  But the Clippers are just now at full strength finally, and I think they will make easy work of the Rockets at home tonight. 

The Clippers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall with their only losses coming on the road.  The Clippers are 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  This is a short number for them to be laying at home tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have struggled to put away some bad teams.  They lost outright to the Pistons as 7.5-point home favorites and outright to the Kings as 12-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites over the Suns and 10-point home favorites over the Spurs.  They also let the Cavs take them to the wire as 11.5-point favorites.

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3 

The Spurs have turned the corner finally and are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 4-3 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the likes of the Clippers and Rockets.  And they only lost by 2 to the Rockets as 10-point road dogs last time out. 

Now the Spurs come in on two days’ rest and will be hosting the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as this will be a tough spot for them.  Not to mention, they needed overtime to put away the Pelicans on Tuesday. 

The Spurs are 21-3 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets.  San Antonio is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 meetings with Brooklyn, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. 

San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Roll with the Spurs Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UTEP +12.5 

I’ve made some good money fading Houston this season and I’ll continue to do so for many of the same reasons tonight.  The Cougars are getting treated like the team they were last year, and not the team that returned just one starter this year and is inexperienced. 

Indeed, Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That includes an upset loss as an 11.5-point home favorite to BYU, a 12-point loss at Oregon as 7-point dogs, and a 6-point upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 7-point favorites.  The Cougars also failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas-Arlington as 14-point favorites, needed a late comeback to beat Rice by 8 as 13-point road favorites, and failed to cover in an 8-point home win over Texas State as 12.5-point favorites. 

The Cougars couldn’t get margin against all of those teams, and they certainly won’t get margin against one of the most underrated teams in the country in UTEP tonight.  UTEP returned four starters this season, and head coach Rodney Terry is doing a great job.  The Miners are off to an 8-1 start this season with their only loss coming by 3 at New Mexico State as 5.5-point dogs.  They also beat NMSU, New Mexico and UC-Irvine at home, three quality teams. 

The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UTEP is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UTEP Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -2.5 

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Celtics are coming off two straight tough losses to the Pacers and 76ers in a back-to-back situation.  Now they’ve had a whopping five days off to rest and recover after last playing on December 12th.  It’s safe to say we will get a big effort from the Celtics tonight. 

The Mavericks are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a shocking 120-116 upset win at Milwaukee as 10-point underdogs on Monday.  It’s like the Bucks didn’t take them seriously without Luka Doncic and the Mavericks took advantage.  But they’re going to feel the loss of Doncic sooner rather than later, including tonight. 

You simply don’t replace a player of Doncic’s caliber.  He has been neck-and-neck with Giannis as the favorite to win the MVP up to this point.  Doncic averages 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game.  He means everything to the Mavericks. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6 or more points per game, after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Dallas.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona State +1.5 

Bobby Hurley is doing a great job at Arizona State.  He has the Sun Devils off to an 8-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Colorado and Virginia (by 3).  They just beat Georgia by 20 and now I expect them to take down Saint Mary’s tonight. 

The Gaels came into the season overvalued due to returning all five starters.  They have gone 9-2 SU but lost to Winthrop at home and Dayton (by 10).  They are just 4-7 ATS and have had some ugly performances.  They only beat Lehigh by 11 as 20.5-point favorites, Nebraska-Omaha by 9 as 15.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois by 12 as 14-point favorites. 

This will essentially be a home game for Arizona State despite technically being on a neutral.  It’s being played at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.   

The Sun Devils are 10-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  Arizona State is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last three years.  Roll with Arizona State Wednesday. 

15* Tennessee/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +1.5 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a shocking loss to Colgate at home.  It was a clearly letdown spot for them after facing rival Xavier in their previous game and losing a heartbreaker.  Now I fully expect the Bearcats to bring their best effort of the season tonight hosting the 21st-ranked Tennessee Vols. 

Tennessee is being priced like it is the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year.  But the Vols only returned one starter from that squad.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and were just upset at home by rival Memphis as 6-point favorites.  Now the Vols are in a similar flat spot that Cincinnati was just in after facing an in-state rival. 

Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last seven games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 94-51 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Cincinnati Wednesday. 

15* Miami/Temple ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Temple -2 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming to Maryland by 7 on a neutral as 9-point dogs and to Missouri at home.  They have impressive road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M as well as a dominant neutral site win over Davidson. 

I like how Temple bounced back from that poor loss to Missouri with a 108-61 throttling of rival St. Joe’s as an 11.5-point favorite.  And now the Owls have had a full week to get ready for Miami after last playing on December 10th, giving them six days in between games to prepare. 

Miami only gets two days to get ready for Temple after playing on Saturday in an 88-74 win over Alabama A&M as 26.5-point favorites.  The Gators have some really poor losses this season as they were beaten by 20 by Florida on a neutral and lost by 25 to UConn on a neutral.  They really don’t have a good win on their schedule outside perhaps Illinois. 

Temple is 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 1-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years. The Hurricanes are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.  The Owls are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games.  Roll with Temple Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -4.5 

The Florida Gators started slow this season.  But they’ve turned the corner in going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with a 20-point win over Miami and a 5-point win over Xavier on a neutral.  Their only loss came on the road at Butler during this stretch. 

Now the Gators have had nine days off since that loss to Butler to get ready for Providence.  They are champing at the bit to hit the court tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  Meanwhile, Providence only has two days to get ready for Florida after playing Stony Brook on Saturday. 

This is a very poor Providence team.  The Friars are just 6-5 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  Their six wins have come against Sacred Heart, New Jersey Tech, St. Peters, Merrimack, Pepperdine (by 3) and Stony Brook (by 4).  They lost to Northwestern by 9 as 9-point favorites, lost to Penn by 6 as 15-point favorites, lost outright to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost outright to College of Charleston as 9-point favorites, and weren’t competitive in their 14-point loss at Rhode Island. 

The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Florida Tuesday. 

20* Lakers/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5 

The Lakers will be playing their seventh road game in their last eight contests.  They are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They failed to cover in a 3-point win at Miami on Friday and also failed to cover in a 5-point win at Atlanta on Sunday.  I think their winning streak comes to an end Tuesday. 

The Indiana Pacers are playing almost as well as the Lakers right now.  They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall and should not be catching points at home to Los Angeles tonight.  They have gone 6-1 SU at home during this stretch with their only loss to the Clippers. 

The Lakers are dealing with some injuries right now as Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out, while Anthony Davis is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Hawks.  And this is the ultimate lookahead spot as the Lakers have the Bucks on deck Thursday on TNT.  I expect them to be overlooking the Pacers and looking ahead to that game against Milwaukee. 

The Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.  The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +10 

The Houston Rockets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  This team is not playing well enough right now to warrant laying this big of a number.  The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes upset losses to both the Kings and Pistons. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Spurs, who have been one of the worst covering teams in the NBA this season at 6-18-1 ATS in their 25 games.  The Spurs have won four of their last six coming in over the Clippers, Rockets, Kings and Suns.  They have stepped up in class and shown they can hang. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 

The Toronto Raptors have been struggling here of late without Fred VanVleet, and he’s doubtful again tonight.  They Raptors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two wins came by a single point over the Bills as 6-point road favorites and by 8 over the Nets as 6.5-point home favorites. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown they can step up in class here of late and compete.  They only lost by 6 as 11.5-point home dogs to the Rockets, went on the road and upset the Spurs by 8 as 12-point dogs, and barely failed to cover at Milwaukee.  Now they are catching 12.5-points here to the Raptors, which is too much. 

Toronto is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  The Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Toronto.  Take the Cavaliers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +12 

There’s no doubt you’re paying a premium now to back the 23-3 Los Angeles Lakers.  They have covered five of their last six and are now laying double-digits on the road to the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a game the Hawks will give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s a bad spot for the Lakers.  They are coming off a win in Miami, and there’s a lot of distractions that come along with playing in Miami.  Teams often times come out flat in their next game.  And the Lakers will be playing their 3rd straight road game here and are in the midst of a stretch of eight of their last nine on the road. 

The Hawks have failed to cover three in a row, and it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They’ll show up for the Lakers today.  Kyle Kuzma is out and Lebron James is questionable for the Lakers.  The Hawks are fully healthy outside the suspension to John Collins. 

The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Hawks are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games off a double-digit home loss.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Hawks Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +7 

The Houston Cougars lost a ton of talent from last year.  I’ve been fading them with success as they returned just one starter, but are being priced like the team they were last season.  The Cougars are 7-2 but just 3-5 ATS in their lined games. 

Oklahoma State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are also 7-2 and returned all five starters from last year.  I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on this team off back-to-back upset losses to Georgetown and Wichita State. 

Those losses followed up impressive showings in an 86-72 upset win over Syracuse on a neutral and a dominant 78-37 win over Ole Miss on a neutral as well.  I have no doubt the Cowboys will be highly motivated to bounce back today, and they will be fresh and ready to go as they last played a week ago today. 

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday. 

15* Gonzaga/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2 

I’ll side with the home team laying the short number in this Top 25 matchup.  The Arizona Wildcats are 10-1 this season, including 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home.  They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 30.2 points per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season.  They did win both, but those were against Washington and Texas A&M.  They lost by 18 to Michigan on a neutral and only beat Oregon by 1.  I think this is the toughest test for the Bulldogs yet as it’s the only game they haven’t been favored in.  Arizona is favored for good reason here. 

The Wildcats are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Arizona Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5 

The Denver Nuggets are currently undervalued because they went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS over a six-game stretch where five of six games were on the road.  I cashed them in when they returned home as 8-point favorites in a 15-point win over the Blazers.   

I think the Nuggets remain undervalued here as only 6.5-point home favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Pepsi Center has been a house of horrors for opponents as Denver had the best home-court advantage in the NBA last year.  The Nuggets are 9-3 at home this season as well. 

Few teams have owned the Thunder like the Nuggets have.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Thunder.  They won all four meetings last year with OKC all by 7 points or more.  And that was when the Thunder were actually good with Paul George and Russell Westbrook.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7 

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have to travel from Orlando back to Houston overnight and won’t have a whole lot left in the. Tank for the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.  Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they were already without Eric Gordon, but now they will be without Russell Westbrook tonight, plus Tyson Chandler is questionable.  The Pistons are fully healthy outside of Reggie Jackson. 

Plays against any team (Houston) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday. 

20* Memphis/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7 

This number is simply too high for a rivalry game between Tennessee and Memphis.  I think Memphis is legitimately one of the best teams in the country with what Penny Hardaway has done in recruiting.  And that will show on the court tonight. 

I’m not sold on this Tennessee team because they only returned one starter from last year and aren’t nearly as good as the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  The Vols are 7-1, but they have yet to play a true road game, and they lost to the best team they have faced in Florida State.  They only other two decently hard games were wins over Washington and VCU on a neutral. 

The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Vols are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Memphis Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Houstons Rockets barely survived the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers on the road Wednesday in a 116-110 win as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Rockets are laying 6.5 points on the road to the Orlando Magic and they shouldn’t be.  I’ll take the value with the Magic at home tonight. 

The Rockets have failed to cover three straight and four of their last five.  They have some key injuries right now as they are playing without two of their best guards in Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers.  They can’t be trusted to lay points on the road here against an Orlando Magic team that is playing well right now. 

Indeed, the Magic have won four of their last six with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Lakers, which are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.  They were competitive in both games as each loss came by single-digits.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Orlando is 23-9 ATS after covering four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Magic are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -6 

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in and it’s understandable considering they played five of their last six on the road.  Now they are back in the Pepsi Center where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

We know we’re going to get a big effort from the Nuggets here, which is a big factor when handicapping the NBA.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season and are 8-3 at home this year.  They should be able to handle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers have been hit hard by injuries this season as they remain without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Rodney Hood.  Injuries prompted them to sign Carmelo Anthony.  The Blazers are just 10-15 this season, including 5-9 on the road.  They are nowhere near as good as they were last season when they made a deep run in the playoffs. 

Plays against underdogs (Portland) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a team with a winning record are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 6 points to a solid Detroit Pistons team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. 

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.  They beat San Antonio by 34 at home and Cleveland by 33 on the road.  They also upset Indiana by 7 at home and won at New Orleans.  I really like the way this team is playing right now. 

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and have consistently had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons.  The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  That break actually wasn’t good for them as it halted the momentum they had. 

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  They are winning by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday. 

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -4 

The Iowa State Cyclones should be bigger favorites here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Hilton Magic is for real, and the Cyclones are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS inside Hilton Coliseum this season, winning by 22.0 points per game on average.  They just beat a ranked Seton Hall team 76-66 at home, and now they’ll make easy work of this unranked Hawkeyes squad. 

I’ve just seen too many poor performances from the Hawkeyes this season to trust them on the road here.  Iowa lost by 15 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  They were beaten by 10 by San Diego State on a neutral in Las Vegas.  And they gave up 103 points to Michigan two games ago, which was the most points scored by the Wolverines in a Big Ten game since 1998. 

Hilton Coliseum has been a house of horrors for the Hawkeyes.  Indeed, Iowa hasn’t won at Hilton Coliseum since 2003.  The Cyclones have won eight straight home meetings with the Hawkeyes.  They want revenge from a bad road loss to Iowa last year, and they should get that revenge with a win and cover at home tonight. 

The Hawkeyes are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Iowa is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after going under the total in their previous game.  Steve Prohm is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Iowa State, and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points in all games he has coached.  Take Iowa State Thursday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois -1 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Miami and Maryland by a combined 3 points to fall to 6-3 on the season.  Their other loss this year came on the road at Arizona. 

The loss to Maryland was extra painful.  They led most the way then gave up a 3-pointer to tie in the closing seconds and fouled Maryland with only a couple seconds left and lost on a free throw.  They fell 58-59 as 10-point road dogs.  Maryland is the No. 4 ranked team in the country, so it showed what Illinois is capable of. 

Now the Fighting Illini get to host No. 5 Michigan.  This is a Wolverines team that has done most of its damage at home or on a neutral.  In their only true road game this season, the Wolverines lost 43-58 at Louisville as 6-point dogs.  Now they have to go on the highway for only the second time this season and face an Illinois team that is 5-1 at home and winning by 24.6 points per game. 

Illinois is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assets per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on home teams (Illinois) off two straight close losses by 3 points or less against an opponent that scored 85 points or more last game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Illinois Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as 9.5-point favorites.  It’s their highest favorite role all season, and only the 2nd time in 24 games that they’ve been favored by more than 4.5 points. 

This number had been adjusted for the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But this is a young team that won’t be affected as much by this situation.  And I think what will energize the Hornets tonight is playing with double-revenge, two losses to Brooklyn since November 20th.  It will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks, and I look for the Hornets to put their best foot forward tonight. 

Charlotte is 8-1 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5 

The defensive intensity in this game tonight is going to stellar.  Kawhi Leonard returns to Toronto for the first time since leaving in free agency for the Clippers.  Both teams will want this game very badly, and I expect it to show on the defensive end. 

We actually saw it in the first meeting this season in Los Angeles.  The Clippers pulled away late to win 98-88 as 9.5-point favorites.  That game saw just 186 combined points with a 220.5-point total, and now they’ve set the total too high again here at 221.5.  Both teams rank in the Top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team (LA Clippers) - in a game involving two good teams that win between 60% and 75% of their games in December games are 62-18 (77.5%) over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 20-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -1 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight road losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan State.  They were competitive in both games and the Spartans had to pull away late to win 77-65 as 14-point favorites. 

There’s no question this Rutgers program is headed in the right direction under Steve Pikiell.  All three of their losses have come on the road this season.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 at home and winning by nearly 20 points per game. 

Wisconsin is 0-4 in all neutral and road games this season.  The Badgers lost to St. Mary’s, Richmond (by 10), New Mexico (by 9) and NC State (by 15) in their four games played away from home.  And coming off a big home win over Indiana, I look at this as a letdown spot for the Badgers. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being Wisconsin’s overtime win at Rutgers as 16-point favorites in 2017.  Rutgers won 64-60 at home against Wisconsin in 2018 and pulled the upset as 15-point home dogs in 2015. 

Rutgers is 15-6 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +9.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 9.5-point road dogs to the Colorado Buffaloes.  This is a loaded UNI team that finished strong in the second half of the season last year and should have won the MVC Tournament.  They returned four starters from that squad. 

The Panthers have opened 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  Their only loss came on the road at West Virginia 55-60 as 6.5-point underdogs.  They had a double-digit lead in that game as well before giving up the lead in the final seconds. 

I think Colorado is overvalued due to being ranked No. 24 in the country.  That has certainly shown here of late as the Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas on Saturday, so they have just two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  It’s a hangover spot because they won’t be nearly as motivated to face UNI as they were Kansas. 

Northern Iowa comes in on seven days’ rest last playing on December 2nd.  It’s safe to say head coach Ben Jacobson will have his team ready for Colorado tonight.  The Buffaloes will be in for a bigger fight than they bargained for against this gritty Panthers team.  Take Northern Iowa Tuesday. 

20* Nuggets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by 13.2 points pre game.  Getting them as only 4-point home favorites over the struggling Denver Nuggets is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  We’ll take advantage. 

The Nuggets are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the Knicks. They have lost three road games to the Kings, Celtics and Nets during this stretch, so I don’t see how they are going to hang with the 76ers tonight. 

Philadelphia wants revenge from a 97-100 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season.  The 76ers blew a 15-point halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Philadelphia is 28-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons. 

The home team has won four straight in this series.  The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  Denver is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday. 

15* Maryland/Penn State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Penn State PK 

The Maryland Terrapins are ranked No. 4 in the country after their 10-0 start this season.  They are overvalued now as they have taken advantage of a schedule that has seen them play just one true road game, which was an 80-73 win at Harvard as 10-point favorites.   

The Terrapins will suffer their first loss this season tonight at Penn State.  Maryland nearly lost its last game as a 10-point home favorite over Illinois, escaping with a 59-58 win after hitting a 3-pointer in the final seconds to tie it, and then getting the ball back and getting fouled just before the buzzer.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

Penn State is loaded this season with four returning starters.  The Nittany Lions are off to a 7-2 start and one of their losses came after a 20-point blown lead to Ole Miss.  The other was a road loss to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes look like the best team in the country right now.  Penn State is 5-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 23.4 points per game. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Penn State beat Maryland 78-61 at home last year as 1.5-point dogs.  The Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday. 

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3 

The Golden State Warriors now have both D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green back healthy.  They are playing some more competitive basketball as a result and should be able to handle the lowly Memphis Grizzlies at home tonight. 

This is a good spot for the Warriors, who come in on two days’ rest and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Warriors beat the Grizzlies 114-95 on the road on November 19th.  It should be more of the same at home this time around. 

The Grizzlies are dealing with some injuries right now to Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clark.  It’s a Grizzlies team playing some really poor basketball right now.  They have gone 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Grizzlies are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies and 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings against Memphis.  Take the Warriors Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -5.5 

The Toronto Raptors have lost three straight for the first time all season.  The three losses came to the Heat, Rockets and 76ers, who are three of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they’ll be highly motivated and should get back on track with a win and cover against the lowly Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls are in a tough spot as they are coming off an overtime loss to the Heat in Miami last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Raptors will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off prior to playing the 76ers last night and will have more left in the tank than the Bulls. 

The Raptors simply own the Bulls with 10 straight wins over Chicago in this series.  The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Chicago winning by 24, 23, 39, 24 and 9 points.  They have won those five games by an average of 23.8 points per game. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Chicago is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog.  The Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering three of their last four ATS.  Roll with the Raptors Monday. 

20* Seton Hall/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -2.5 

I love the spot for the Iowa State Cyclones tonight.  They are out for revenge from a 76-84 loss to Seton Hall in the Bahamas.  Now they get the Pirates at home this time around inside Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. 

The Cyclones are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Their only non-cover was by 0.5 points.  It will be just the second true road game of the season for the Pirates tonight. 

Iowa State is 28-4 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Roll with Iowa State Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +14.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their only losses coming by 6 to St. Bonaventure on a neutral and by 11 at Pittsburgh.  They can stay within 14.5 points of the Michigan State Spartans tonight. 

The Spartans are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS and came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team.  They are far from it.  They were upset by Kentucky, Virginia Tech and Duke and failed to put away teams like Seton Hall, Georgia and UCLA.  They only have two wins all season by more than 13 points. 

Making matters worse for the Spartans are the injuries.  They are without both Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts, who were expected to be two of their best players coming into the season.  Joey Hauser being ruled ineligible also hurt them. 

The Scarlet Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers has lost by 11 points or fewer in each of their last four meetings with the Spartans while going 3-1 ATS.  Bet Rutgers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

I really like this UNDER tonight between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  And familiarity almost always favors the defenses because they know what to expect from the offenses. 

Not to mention, the first two meetings in this series went UNDER the total with combined scores of 213 points on November 15th and 197 points on November 29th.  Now, oddsmakers have somehow set this total way higher than it should be at 219 points in the 3rd meeting. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of their last 44 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 44-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Marquette/Kansas State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State PK 

For starters, Marquette player of the year candidate Markus Howard (26.0 PPG) is questionable to play tonight.  He sat out their last game with a concussion and is questionable to play again today.  The good news is I like Kansas State regardless of whether or not he plays, it would just be a bonus if he doesn’t. 

Marquette has been solid on a neutral and at home with the exception of a 21-point loss to Maryland.  But in their lone true road game, the Golden Eagles were blasted by a mediocre 4-4 Wisconsin team 61-77 as 2-point dogs.  And they will get blasted by Kansas State today as well. 

The Wildcats have only lost on a neutral this season.  They are 4-0 at home and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are once again a dominant defensive team this year, holding opponents to 58.4 points per game overall and 54.2 points per game at home. 

Marquette is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 12.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -3 

The Temple Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It’s almost criminal that they aren’t ranked yet.  They are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral to Maryland by 7 as 9-point dogs.  That’s a Maryland team that is ranked No. 3 in the country. 

Temple also has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat USC 70-61 as 9-point dogs.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M 65-42 as 5-point favorites.  And they crushed Davidson 66-53 on a neutral as only 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 3-point favorites here Saturday against Missouri. 

The Tigers are just 4-4 this season and come in off a string of very disappointing showings.  They lost 52-63 to Butler on a neutral as 2-point favorites.  They were also upset as 1.5-point favorites against Oklahoma 66-77 on a neutral.  And they were just upset at home by Charleston Southern 60-68 as 23.5-point favorites.  This team is clearly overrated. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 11.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +11 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  It’s Year 3 under Brad Underwood, and this is where good head coaches make their mark.  Underwood is certainly impressing thus far in Year 3. 

The Fighting Illini returned four starters from last year and added in a great recruiting class.  They are off to a 6-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to Arizona and at home to Miami.  They’ll be highly motivated for their Big Ten opener against No. 3 Maryland tonight. 

The Terrapins are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as double-digit favorites over this solid Illinois squad.  They have narrow wins over Temple and Harvard by 7 points apiece, and I think they are in for a fight tonight.  Especially since Maryland only has two days to get ready for Illinois after playing Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Illinois has four days to get ready while being off since Monday. 

Illinois pulled the 78-67 upset over Maryland as 8.5-point dogs last year.  Maryland hasn’t beaten Illinois by more than 6 since 2016.  The Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. Take Illinois Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

20* Providence/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island +2 

Rhode Island returned all five starters this season and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule and have managed to go 5-3 this season.  Their only losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia and LSU.  They also beat Alabama outright by 14 as home underdogs and topped a good North Texas team by 13 as 6-point favorites on a neutral. 

Providence is 5-4 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  The Friars have been a huge disappointment against a much easier schedule than Rhode Island has faced.  They lost by 9 at Northwestern as 9-point favorites.  They lost at home to Pennsylvania outright as 15-point favorites.  And they also lost on a neutral to Long Beach State as 16-point favorites, lost to College of Charleston on a neutral as 9-point favorites, and barely beat Pepperdine by 3 on a neutral as 7-point favorites. 

Providence is 14-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Rhode Island Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -7.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are loaded this season and a legit NCAA Tournament team.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Villanova.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall coming in, so they have been flying under the radar. 

Louisiana Tech has already been tested on the road against teams that are a similar caliber to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lost by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana.  I expect them to lose by double-digits tonight as well. 

The Bulldogs have been off since November 24th, so they’ll be ready to go tonight and completely focused.  Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Mississippi State) - in a game involving two good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game, after leading int heir previous game by 15 or more points at halftime are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -2.5 

This is the worst spot the Lakers have been in this entire season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  After playing in altitude last night in Denver, they now have to play in altitude again tonight in Utah.  The Lakers won’t have much left in the tank. 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win after losing four of five on their five-game road trip.  Now they’re back home where they are 8-1 on the season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They will take advantage of this tired Lakers team tonight and get a win and cover. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Lakers.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Mexico -3 

The New Mexico Lobos have NBA talent this season and should challenge for a Mountain West title.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only two losses coming on the road to UTEP and on a neutral to Auburn.  They also have a road win at New Mexico State and an upset win over Wisconsin on a neutral as 6.5-point dogs.  They have been battle-tested. 

Boise State has been far from impressive this season at 4-2.  Their only good win came at home against BYU.  They lost at Oregon by 31 as 10.5-point dogs.  They were upset at home by UC-Irvine by 9 as 4.5-point favorites.  And now they won’t be competitive with New Mexico, either. 

The Lobos have one of the best home-court advantages in the country year in and year out in The Pit.  The Lobos are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 16.4 points per game.  The Broncos are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +2 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to an 8-0 start this season with three impressive road wins over Iowa, Boston College and Minnesota all as underdogs.  And now they are getting zero respect as home dogs to Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders were exposed in Las Vegas when they lost to Iowa 61-72 as 7-point favorites and were upset by Creighton as well 76-83 as 6-point favorites.  Leading scorer Jahmi’us Ramsey (17.3 PPG) missed the Creighton game and is questionable to play tonight as well. 

Texas Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Blue Demons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 18.4 points per game.  Take DePaul Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane -1.5 

Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State before coming to Tulane.  Now he is already turning around this Tulane program in his first season.  The Green Wave are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and should be laying more than 1.5 points on the road over Southern Miss tonight. 

Tulane’s only loss this season came to Mississippi State as 10-point underdogs.  The Green Wave upset Utah as 8-point dogs on a neutral and their other five wins have all come by 9 points or more.  There is nothing fluky about their 6-1 start. 

Now Tulane takes on a rebuilding Southern Miss team that is 2-6 SU & 2-3-1 ATS this season.  The Golden Eagles’ only two wins have come at home against Delta State and William Carey.  Four of their six losses have come by 15 points or more with the only exceptions being their losses to South Alabama and North Florida. 

Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS int heir last five road games.  Tulane is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 226 

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons just played less than two weeks ago.  The Bucks won 104-90 at home as 13-point favorites.  That game saw just 194 combined points, and now oddsmakers are setting the total at 226 in the rematch.  This total is way too high to say the least. 

The Pistons won’t have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days the last time they faced the Bucks and managed just 90 points on 40.7% shooting. 

The Pistons have been dynamite defensively over their last games in allowing just 98.4 points per game on 42.8% shooting.  The Bucks have held four of their last six opponents to 102 points or fewer and remain a very good defensive team. 

Detroit is 15-3 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pistons last 52 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Detroit) - off a blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led its last game by 15 or more at the half are 53-13 (80.3%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Lakers/Nuggets NBA No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets had won 10 of 11 before suffering an upset loss at Sacramento on Saturday.  I believe they were overlooking the Kings and looking ahead to this huge showdown with the Lakers, which is understandable.  Now they’ve had two days off to get over that loss and get ready for the Lakers. 

The Lakers are coming off a 100-114 home loss to the Mavericks to end their 10-game winning streak.  I like fading teams the game after their long winning streak comes to an end because there just always seems to be a hangover effect.  And this is a tired Lakers team playing their 7th game in 12 days and have to travel to Utah tomorrow night. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Lakers winning all five games by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

20* FSU/Indiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Indiana -1 

Archie Miller finally has his best team at Indiana since he took over.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with all seven wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 22.8 points per game.  They are scoring 86.4 points per game on 51.4% shooting this season. 

The Hoosiers are also greatly improved defensively.  They are giving up 63.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting.  They are holding opponents to 11.2 points per game below their season averages.  They are also scoring 13.5 points per game more than their opponents average allowing on the season. 

I think this is a bad spot for Florida State.  They are coming off two straight nailbiting wins over Tennessee and Purdue on a neutral court by 3 points each.  Those two teams are both way down from where they were last year.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, while the Hoosiers will only be playing their 2nd game in 8 days. 

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Indiana Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2 

Despite being just 6-12 SU this season, the Washington Wizards are 11-7 ATS and have been an undervalued commodity this season.  And it’s worth noting they have played a road-heavy schedule with 11 road games compared to seven home games.   

The Wizards are back home here off a brutal four-game road trip at Denver, Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers.  It’s safe to say they are battle-tested.  And now I expect them to handle their business at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 121-125 loss at Orlando two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. 

The Magic have lost four of their last six with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Golden State.  Orlando is dealing with some injuries right now with Nikola Vucevic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams all out tonight. 

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards have won five straight home meetings with the Magic.  Washington is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with the Magic.  Orlando is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Take the Wizards Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -1 

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing their first true road game of the season tonight.  They are 7-0 and ranked 24th in the country, but their unbeaten season comes to an end at Ole Miss here.  The unranked Rebels are favored and for good reason. 

Ole Miss has a one-point loss at Memphis and an upset win over Penn State on a neutral.  The Rebels will be highly motivated for a win following a blowout loss to a very good Oklahoma State team.  This is a Rebels team that won 20 games last year that earned Kermit Davis SEC Coach of the Year honors.  A lot of talent returned from that team. 

Breiin Tyree (15.1 PPG) is an SEC Player of the Year candidate and returning starter.  Blake Hinson (12.3 PPG) is also a returning starter who missed the first four games of the season.  Now that he’s back, the Rebels should take off.  KJ Buffen (12.4 PPG) is shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range.  This is a great 3-point shooting team with four of the top five scorers all shooting at least 37.5% from distance.  Tyree won’t continue to shoot as poorly from 3 as he has thus far. 

The Rebels are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Butler is 6-15 ATS in true road games over the last three seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Bulls/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight as road underdogs to the Sacramento Kings.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall.  But they are coming in on two days’ rest and will be primed for a big effort today against a Kings team that is very beatable. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Kings, who are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and starting to become overvalued because of it.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Denver Nuggets, which also makes them primed for a letdown here against the Bulls. 

Keep in mind during this 12-1 ATS run the Kings were underdogs in all but three games, and they were never favored by more than 3 points.  So they are now laying their biggest number since October 30th at home against the Hornets.  And they have been mostly dogs during this stretch because they are still missing De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  They are far from full strength.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

I love the situation for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  This is a home-and-home situation.  The Thunder just beat the Pelicans 109-104 at home on Friday.  Now these teams play in a rematch at New Orleans just two days later.  The Pelicans will be highly motivated for revenge in this one. 

The Thunder are just 1-7 on the road this season and giving up 110.4 points per game.  The Pelicans have played their best basketball at home and nearly upset the Lakers are 6.5-point home dogs in their last home game.  They should have no problem covering this short 2.5-point spread tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -2 

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country because they returned all five starters this year.  But those starters are clearly mediocre as the Wildcats are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games this season. 

Davidson has had some ugly performances to say the least.  They were upset as 10-point favorites in a 13-point loss at Charlotte.  They were upset by Wake Forest as 9-point favorites in a 12-point loss on a neutral.  And they lost by 10 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs. 

Temple is 5-1 this season and has some impressive wins.  They went on the road and beat both La Salle and USC, topping the Trojans as 9-point dogs.  Temple’s only loss this season came against one of the best teams in the country in Maryland as 9-point dogs in a 7-point loss on a neutral.  The Owls are coming off a 65-42 blowout win over Texas A&M on the road as well. 

Davidson is 2-9 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Temple is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 neutral site games.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Bet Temple Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +13.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 16-3 this season, but they have been struggling to cover these big spreads they are asked to lay night in and night out.  That has been the case here of late especially as the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Milwaukee only won 119-110 at Cleveland as 11.5-point favorites last night.  They only won 111-102 as 14.5-point home favorites over Atlanta the game before.  They only won 122-118 as 8.5-point home favorites over Utah, 137-129 as 14-point home favorites over Portland and 135-127 as 11-point favorites over Atlanta in their previous three games.  They did cover by one in a 14-point win over Detroit as a 13-point favorite in a 1-5 ATS stretch over their last six. 

Charlotte has rarely lost by this kind of margin.  In fact, in their last 12 games, the Hornets have only been beaten twice by more than 10 points.  They are coming off two straight upset wins and they certainly believe they can hang with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee is 36-59 ATS in its last 95 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Hornets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on zero days’ rest.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* Florida State/Purdue CBB No-Brainer on Florida State +1 

The Florida State Seminoles have the home-court advantage in this neutral site affair with the Purdue since it is played in Niceville, Florida.  The Seminoles are 6-1 this season with their only loss coming at Pitt by a final of 61-63.  They went on to beat Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs.  And yesterday they topped No. 17 Tennessee 60-57. 

The Purdue Boilermakers lost a lot of talent from the team that made the Elite 8 last year.  Carsen Edwards single-handedly got them to the Elite 8, but he’s now gone.  The Boilermakers were upset at home by Texas 66-70 as 6.5-point favorites and they lost by 10 at Marquette in a pick ‘em role.  They were fortunate to escape with a 59-56 win over VCU last night. 

I like the fact that FSU played the early game yesterday and got to watch the Purdue/VCU game for scouting reasons.  It also makes the Seminoles the more fresh team, though it’s never a problem with them because they are always so deep, and they once again have some great depth this year. 

FSU is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games overall.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Creighton CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -6 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders blitzed out to a 5-0 start this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more.  But then they were upset by Iowa as 7-point favorites yesterday, and I think they are undervalued now today against Creighton as a result. 

There’s no question Texas Tech is the better team.  Creighton is 4-2 SU but 1-5 ATS this season.  They lost by 10 at Michigan and were embarrassed by 31 by San Diego State yesterday.  They also struggled to put away Cal Poly in a 16-point home win as 24.5-point favorites.  And they only beat North Florida by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They aren’t even in the same class at Texas Tech, and it will show on the scoreboard. 

Creighton is 8-18 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Texas Tech Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 220 

I think there’s great value with this UNDER tonight.  The Jazz and Grizzlies just met on November 15th with the Grizzlies winning 107-106 at home for 213 combined points.  These teams are now very familiar with one another and will be playing just two weeks later.  That favors the defenses. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of the last 43 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 43-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 220-point total. 

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Jazz last 33 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego State -3 

The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  They are off to a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with six wins by 13 points or more.  They also pulled the upset 76-71 at BYU as 4-point dogs. 

Yesterday, San Diego State blasted Creighton 83-52 as 2.5-point favorites.  That blowout afforded the Aztecs the ability to rest their starters late so they’ll still be fresh for Iowa today.  I think that’s a huge advantage and one that will help them cover this 3-point spread. 

Iowa pulled off a shocking 72-61 upset win as 7-point dogs over Texas Tech yesterday.  They had to play their starters all the way until the final buzzer because Texas Tech kept making runs at them.  And after beating the Red Raiders, the Hawkeyes are clearly getting more respect than they deserve.  Remember, Iowa lost 78-93 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites. 

The Aztecs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.  Roll with San Diego State Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5 

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation after these two teams played in Charlotte on Wednesday.  The Hornets won that game 102-101 in thrilling fashion.  Now the Pistons will want their revenge at home tonight and will clearly be the more motivated team.  I believe it leads to a blowout win in Detroit’s favor. 

The Pistons have been great at home here of late.  They beat the Hawks 128-103 as 6-point favorites and topped the Magic 103-88 as 5-point favorites in their two most recent home games.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season. 

The Hornets are just 3-7 on the road this season and getting outscored by 9.8 points per game.  In their last four road games, the Hornets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by 17 at Miami, by 7 at Washington, by 10 at Brooklyn and by 36 at Toronto. 

The Hornets are 7-25 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three seasons.  The Hornets will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Pistons will be playing just their 7th game in 19 days.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

15* Tennessee/FSU CBB No-Brainer on Florida State -1 

For starters, Florida State will have the home-court advantage with this neutral site game being played in Niceville, FL.  And I simply believe the Seminoles are the better team and are favored for good reason despite being unranked and facing No. 17 Tennessee. 

The Vols are getting too much respect for what they did last year.  But they only brought back one starter from that team.  They are 5-0 this season, but it has come against an easy schedule with the five wins coming against UNC-Asheville, Murray State, Washington, Alabama State and UT-Chattanooga. 

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming by two points at Pitt, 61-63.  The Seminoles went on to blow out Florida 63-51 as 6-point road dogs to show what they are capable of.  They also played UT-Chattanooga, beating them 89-53 at home while Tennessee only beat Chattanooga 58-46 at home.  That gives them a common opponent and shows that FSU is clearly the better team. 

Plays against neutral court underdogs (Tennessee) - after three straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Florida State Friday. 

15* Iowa State/Seton Hall ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall -2.5 

Iowa State used a lot of energy in their 104-89 shootout win against a bad Alabama team yesterday.  Now the Cyclones will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and don’t have much of a bench.  They will be the more tired team in this matchup. 

That’s because Seton Hall made easy work of Southern Miss 81-56 yesterday and was allowed to rest its starters down the stretch.  This is clearly a very good Seton Hall team, taking both Michigan State (73-76) and Oregon (69-71) to the wire.  Oregon and Michigan State are two of the best teams in the country. 

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with one or fewer days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  Take Seton Hall Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -6.5 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are back at it this season in being among the best teams in the country after finishing as runners-up to Virginia last year for the national title.  They have come back hungry this season to prove that the runs to the Elite 8 and the National Championship Game the past two years were no fluke. 

Indeed, the Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 15 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  They are once again elite defensively, holding opponents to 60.2 points per game and nearly 15 points per game less than their season averages.  Offensively, they are scoring 87.0 points per game and averaging 11.3 points per game more than their opponents normally allow. 

Iowa is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have played all five games at home thus far against some suspect competition.  Their four wins have come against SIU Edwardsville, Oral Roberts, North Florida and Cal Poly.  And they were upset in a 78-93 home loss to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  The Hawkeyes are giving up 70.8 points per game this season, only holding opponents to 1.4 points per game less than their season averages.  They are once again a soft defensive team this year. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hawkeyes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury.  They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites.  Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. 

The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters.  They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday.  They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. 

The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons.  They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* Seton Hall/Oregon ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oregon -1 

The Oregon Ducks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and ranked No. 11 in the country for good reason.  They have won all five games by 8 points or more and their schedule has not been easy as they’ve played Fresno State (won by 14), Boise State (won by 31), Memphis (won by 8) and Houston (won by 12). 

Seton Hall is also off to a good start this season at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  Their narrow home loss to Michigan State doesn’t look so good now after Michigan State was just upset as 13.5-point favorites against Virginia Tech and barely beat Georgia.  Seton Hall is mostly a one-man show with Myles Powell and the Ducks’ elite defense will be prepared to stop him. 

Oregon is giving up 63.8 points per game and 36.1% shooting.  That’s impressive when you consider they have faced some great offensive teams that average 80.1 points per game on the season.  They are holding their opponents to 16.3 points per game less than their season averages. 

Oregon is 9-0 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Ducks are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seton Hall is 0-4 ATS in its last four games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Oregon Wednesday.