15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers OVER 228

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and are scoring 115.9 points per game while allowing 116.7 points per game.  Any total of less than 230 for the Pacers is worth a look to the OVER.

The Miami Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and are potent on offense when that's the case.  They have some of the best shooters in the NBA.  But they have slipped defensively this season, allowing 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The loss of PJ Tucker has really hurt them defensively.

Six of Indiana's last eight games have seen 231 or more combined points.  Indiana is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 road games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Rockets OVER 226.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace this season and 29th in defensive efficiency, but they have talent on offense and can score.  They face a Milwaukee Bucks team that is as healthy as they have been all season now and one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA when that's the case.

The recent head-to-head history between Milwaukee and Houston really stands out.  The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in each of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 226.5-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Magic UNDER 222.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic will be playing in a rematch from Friday's 113-109 home win by the Magic for 222 combined points.  Now they play again here just two days later, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Magic aren't going to shoot 59.2% from the field again like they did in that first meeting, which was played at a snail's pace.  Both of these teams prefer to slow it down as they are both tied at 19th in pace this season.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 222, 229, 191 and 200 points.  They Raptors and Magic have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to full strength for the first time all season.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and I think we are getting them at a great value as a PK against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are starting to get some respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But keep in mind they were 2-14-1 ATS in their previous 17 games.  This teams isn't very good, they aren't defending like they did last year, and they rely too much on Luka Doncic.  The Bucks have answers for him on defense that most teams don't with their length.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Milwaukee tonight.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Cavaliers OVER 222.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings rank 6th in the NBA in pace, 5th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they play.  15 of their last 16 games have seen at least 219 combined points.  Sacramento games are averaging 235.3 combined points per game this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the most efficiency offensive teams in the NBA as they rank 9th in offensive efficiency.  They will get whatever they want against the Kings, and they won't hesitate to get in a track meet with them, either.

These teams just met on November 9th a month ago with the Kings winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  That's 24.5 points more than this posted total of 222.5, so there's clearly value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Spurs OVER 233.5

Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 6th in pace while the Rockets rank 13th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets rank 28th.

The Spurs have lost 11 consecutive games and have allowed 117 or more points in 12 consecutive games.  The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams get to 117-plus in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER 233.5 ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between San Antonio and Houston with combined scores of 243, 237, 238 and 252 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Enough said.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on SE Missouri State ML +105

Both SE Missouri State and IUPU-Fort Wayne sit at 5-4 this season.  The difference is SE Missouri State has played a much tougher schedule and is clearly the better team, thus they should not be home underdogs to Fort Wayne tonight.

The Redhawks upset South Florida and Evansville on the road and Boston on a neutral.  They only lost by 13 at Bradley and by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs, a Missouri team that remains undefeated this season.  They have only played two home games, which resulted in wins by 37 and 36 points.

The Mastadons have already played five home games and actually were upset by Detroit, and nearly upset by SIU Edwardsville and Oakland.  They are 1-3 on the highway with their only win coming on a neutral as a favorite against lowly Eastern Michigan.

SE Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. team that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Redhawks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Mastadons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take SE Missouri State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +110

The Miami Heat are finally getting healthy and it's starting to show in their play.  They have won four of their last five games overall and are coming off an upset win at Boston in Jimmy Butler's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-112 win in Detroit Sunday.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Grizzlies yesterday.  I like the spot when I released this pick this morning, but I love it even more now given the injury report that has come out for the Grizzlies since.

Memphis will be without Desmond Bane, Danny Green, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight.  Both JA Morant and John Konchar are questionable.  The Heat will have no problem blowing out the Grizzlies given who they will be putting out on the court tonight.

Miami is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games following three consecutive road games.  Take the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons OVER 228.5

The Detroit Pistons have gone way OVER the total in consecutive games.  They combined for 250 points with New York and then 256 points with Dallas in a OT game that was still at 234 at the end of regulation.  It think we easily get up and OVER 228.5 in this matchup with the Grizzlies.

Memphis has scored 115 or more points in five of its last nine games overall.  Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in seven consecutive games.  Memphis and Detroit combined for 239 points in their most recent meetings.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pistons last 18 non-conference home games.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Pistons last 13 home games.  The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis is only 19th in defensive efficiency.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Creighton OVER 141

Creighton is an elite offensive team that is coring 81.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting this season.  The Bluejays will carry the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER ticket.  The Huskers average 70.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting an can do their part, too.

My favorite angle on this play is the head-to-head history.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings as Creighton and Nebraska have combined for 146, 172, 171 and 179 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 167 combined points per game, which is 26 points more than this 141-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Warriors OVER 232

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 119 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 12th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  The Rockets have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games, while allowing 120 or more points in five of their last six.

These teams just met on November 20th two weeks ago with the Warriors winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  And we only need 232 here, so there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Rhode Island UNDER 133

Providence ranks 265th in adjusted tempo this season while Rhode Island ranks 197th.  Both like to play in the half court.  And with this being a rivalry game, the defensive intensity will be maxed out, thus I think we get an UNDER here.

Rhode Island is really struggling on offense this season.  The score 62.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting including 24.6% from 3-point range.  They only average four made 3-pointers per game.  They rank 261st in adjusted offense.  But they do defend well, holding opponents to 64.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 118, 136 and 109 points.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Friars last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Any total below 230 is low for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.

The Los Angeles Clippers may be getting back both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George from injury today to boost their offense.  They will have no problem getting into a shootout with the Kings either way.  10 of Sacramento's last 13 games have seen 229 or more combined points.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going over the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a bad defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 73-34 (68.2%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last six games and the OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

The Chicago Bulls are lighting up the scoreboard of late as well scoring at least 113 points in five consecutive games.  But they have allowed 107 or more points in nine consecutive games.  They rank in the top half of the league in pace so they will enjoy getting up and down the court with the Warriors tonight to try and keep pace.

The OVER is 28-11 in Bulls last 39 road games after trailing their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime.  They gave up 132 points to the Suns last time out in a game that saw 245 combined points.  We'll see a similar shootout tonight against the Warriors.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Suns OVER 229.5

The Phoenix Suns are just rolling offensively right now.  They have scored at least 112 points in eight of their last nine games and are coming off 132 and 122-point efforts in their last two games against the Bulls and Kings, respectively.  They have allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 11 games as well.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 9th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Houston and Phoenix with combined scores of 233 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Suns last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off a 121-134 loss in Boston on Wednesday.  Now they get their chance at revenge here just two days later again in Boston Friday.  At the very least I like their chances of staying within this 8.5-point spread and possibly pulling off the upset.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won 14 of their last 15 games overall and have won and covered five straight.  If they were going to have a letdown, this would be the spot after just beating the Heat by 13 two nights ago.

Injuries are working in Miami's favor here, too.  Jimmy Butler makes his return from a knee injury tonight, and Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all probable for the Heat tonight.  This is as healthy as they have been in a long time, and they are one of the better teams in the East when fully healthy.

Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Boston.  The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with double-revenge against an opponent.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 this season behind an elite offense that is scoring 97.5 points per game on 60.3% shooting and 45% from 3-point range.  The Wildcats rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 1st in adjusted tempo and will run the Utah Utes out of the gym tonight.  They are also 43rd in adjusted defense.

Utah is off to a 5-2 start this season against a much softer schedule than Arizona has faced.  They lost to Mississippi State on a neutral and only beat Georgia Tech by 4 on a neutral.  But the concerning loss was the 10-point home loss to Sam Houston State as 10-point favorites.  And I give them zero chance of hanging around with the Wildcats in this one.

Arizona crushed Utah in both meetings last season winning 82-64 at home as 19-point favorites and 97-77 on the road as 11-point favorites.  So when comparing the spreads of both meetings last season, we are getting a discount here on the Wildcats as only 6.5-point road favorites.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Mavs/Pistons NBA TV No-Brainer on Detroit +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season a 110-140 home loss to the New York Knicks.  But they were competitive in their previous eight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games with an 8-point loss to Cleveland, a 6-point loss at Phoenix, an upset win at Utah, an upset win at Denver, an 8-point loss at Sacramento, a 7-point loss at the Lakers, a 5-point loss at the Clippers and a 4-point loss to the Raptors.

So that blowout loss to the Knicks was the aberration, not the norm.  They hadn't lost any of their previous 10 games by double-digits.  They won't be losing by double-digits to the Mavericks tonight, either.  Look for an inspired effort from the Pistons off that loss, and it's worth noting they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Mavericks off their upset 3-point home win over the Warriors last time out.  Keep in mind the Mavericks had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  In fact, the Mavericks are now just 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have just one win by double-digits in their last 18 games overall.  They aren't blowing anyone out right now.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS following a win this season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Kings OVER 238.5

Both the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers are dead nuts OVER teams.  Sacramento ranks 7th in pace while Indiana ranks 3rd.  Sacramento ranks 4th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 16th.  Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 19th.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Kings last seven home games.  The Kings and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in each of their last six home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +12

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be motivated for revenge from a 113-129 loss at Denver on Monday.  Now they get their shot at revenge in Denver again here two days later, and oddsmakers hasn't adjusted for the revenge factor considering Denver was an 11.5-point favorite in the first meeting and is now a 12-point favorite in the rematch.

The Rockets were playing well coming into that game.  They had gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They only lost by 7 to Golden State as 11-point dogs, upset Atlanta by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset Oklahoma City by 13 as 2-point dogs.  They only trailed Denver by 2 at halftime, too.

I'll gladly fade the Nuggets tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat this team again.  They'll be lucky to get out of here with a win, let alone cover this 12-point spread due to their lack of motivation.  I also can't see them shooting 56.8% from the field again like they did in that first meeting and they still struggled to cover.

Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight given the terrible spot for them.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Indiana -4

Southern Indiana has been impressive this season going 3-3 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  They only lost by 6 at Missouri as 19.5-point dogs, by 12 at Notre Dame as 14.5-point dogs and by 14 at St. Bonaventure.  They also went on the road and upset Bowling Green by 12, upset Southern Illinois by 18 at home as 9.5-point dogs and crushed Loras by 32.

Western Illinois opened the season with an upset win at Illinois State and a blowout home win over Rockford.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since with a 12-point loss at DePaul, a 33-point loss at UCF, a 24-point home loss to Youngstown State and an upset road loss at UTRGV.  They aren't very good.

Southern Indiana is +4.6 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow this season, while Western Illinois is -7.5 points per game.  So Southern Indiana is +12.1 points per game better than Western Illinois, and that doesn't even factor in their much tougher strength of schedule.  Southern Indiana should be much closer to a 10-point favorite tonight.

Western Illinois is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games overall, including 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.  This team has almost zero home-court advantage with how terrible they have been.  Roll with Southern Indiana Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Iowa State UNDER 133

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team again this season.  The Cyclones rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 29th in defensive efficiency.  They play a North Dakota team tonight that also prefers to slow it down ranking 273rd in adjusted tempo.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.

Iowa State is holding opponents to 16.6 points per game less than their season averages this season.  The Cyclones are holding foes to 37.8% shooting, which is nearly 8% less than their season averages.  Iowa State only shoots 29.7% from 3-point range this season and isn't a good shooting team.

Iowa State is 17-5 UNDER in its last 22 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Cyclones last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cyclones last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 224.5

Ben Simmons is a good defender and gives Brooklyn almost nothing on offense.  He is out tonight, meaning Kyrie Irving will likely take over the ball-handling duties.  Irving is a dead nuts OVER player as he is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders.

The Washington Wizards are really starting to get in a groove offensively now with both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy.  They followed up 121 points at Boston with 142 points at home against Minnesota.  They also gave up 130 points to the Celtics and 127 to the Timberwolves and have now allowed at least 110 points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 4-0 in Wizards last four games overall.  The OVER is 23-10-1 in Wizards last 34 games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the VCU Rams tonight.  They are 4-2 SU but 0-5 ATS this season with their two losses coming to Memphis and Arizona State.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so this is a gift getting them at a PK against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is a rebuilding team that lost their best player in Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.4 PPG) from last season.  They are off to a 3-3 start this season with home losses to Memphis and Southern MIss as well as a neutral loss to St. Mary's.  All three losses came by 9 points or more.  Their three wins have come against Temple, Fresno and Morehead State.  They also have four players questionable due to injury or illness tonight.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* Wyoming/Santa Clara Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Santa Clara -7

I like this Santa Clara team.  They are off to a 5-2 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more including neutral court wins over DePaul by 8 and Iona by 10.  Their two losses came on a neutral to UCF and on the road at Utah State.  They are 3-0 at home this season and are an elite offensive team.

But as much as I like Santa Clara, this is more of a play against Wyoming than anything.  They are without their two best players tonight in Hunter Maldanado (18.7 PPG last year, 14.7 PPG this year) and Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last year).  They also could be without their second-leading scorer this season in Max Agbonkpolo (9.6 PPG), who is questionable today.

It's not wonder Wyoming is off to such a terrible start this season playing the entire way without Ike.  They are 3-3 SU & 0-4 ATS with their three wins coming against Colorado Christian, Nicholls State and Howard.  They lost outright at home as a 21.5-point favorite to SE Louisiana, lost to Drake and lost to Boston College by 11.  I see no way they can keep this game competitive against Santa Clara without Maldanado and Ike.

Santa Clara is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Wyoming is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Bet Santa Clara Wednesday.

15* Baylor/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette +6.5

Marquette is 5-2 this season with its two losses coming to Purdue by 5 on the road and to Mississippi State by 3 on a neutral.  All five wins came by double-digits.  Well, Purdue and Mississippi State are a combined 13-0 this season.  Purdue just beat Duke by 19, Gonzaga by 18 and West Virginia by 12.  That 5-point loss looks real good now.

Baylor should not be a 6.5-point road favorite over Marquette tonight.  The Bears have faced such an easy schedule outside of their split with Virginia and UCLA in their tournament.  They lost to Virginia by 7 and beat UCLA by 5.  This will be the Bears' first true road game this season.

Marquette is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Golden Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Marquette is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Marquette Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tarleton State -7

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  They did lost by 12 at Wichita State, but now they are back home for just the second time this season and take a big step down in class here against Weber State.

Weber State has been a massive disappointment this season at 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  You could see it coming though with just one returning starter and a lack of experience.  They lost by 17 at Washington, by 25 at Colorado State, by 7 to Riverside on a neutral and by 22 to Wright State on a neutral.  I have a hard time seeing them stay within 7 points of Tarleton State on the road given those results.

Tarleton State is +8.8 points per game when comparing what their opponents typically score and give up on the season, while Weber State is -4.0 points per game.  So Tarleton would be a 12.8-point favorite on a neutral based on those numbers, and they're at home here.  The Texans have played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country while Weber State has played the 76th, too.

Weber State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  The Wildcats are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Weber State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last five games.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.

Dallas just allowed 125 points to Boston and 124 points to Milwaukee in two of their last three games.  They are going to have to try and keep pace with the Warriors tonight because Golden State is going to get its points.  Expected a shootout between these teams tonight.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven games following a win by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Mavericks last 10 games following a loss.  The OVER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Golden State) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 28-8 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +1

The Sacramento Kings are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home during this stretch.  But they are coming off two consecutive road losses at Atlanta and at Boston, so they return home here highly motivated for a victory.  The Kings are also fully healthy and come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.

The Phoenix Suns have been fortunate to go 4-0 in their last four games overall.  All four games were at home against some of the worst teams in the NBA in the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons and Jazz.  They won their last two games over the Jazz and Pistons by a combined 7 points.

The Suns have been getting away with being without Chris Paul and Cam Johnson due to the soft schedule.  Their luck runs out tonight as they finally hit the road to face a legit team in the Kings.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns tonight.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games on the season are 50-16 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sam Houston State +4.5

Sam Houston State is one of the most underrated teams in the country and will prove it again tonight.  The Bearkats are 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  That includes a 52-51 upset win at Oklahoma as 16.5-point dogs in the opener as well as a 65-55 win at Utah as 10-point dogs.  

Oklahoma has since reeled off 6 consecutive victories including a tournament win over Ole Miss yesterday, so how good does that win look now?  The Bearkats have avoided letdowns despite those two wins with their other four victories all coming by 31-plus points.  They are outscoring opponents by 33.2 points per game on the season!

Now the Bearkats will go on the road and upset Nevada tonight.  This Nevada team is getitng too much respect for its 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start against a pretty weak schedule.  The six wins over come against Utah Tech, Grand Canyon, William Jessup, UT-Arlington, Tulane and Akron.  They lone loss came to the best team they have faced in Kansas State by 9 on a neutral.  I'm not so sure Sam Houston State won't be the best team they have faced to this point.

Sam Houston State is 8-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Bearkats are 9-1 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Bearkats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Sam Houston State is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  Roll with Sam Houston State Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Seattle +5.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 5-0 start this season covering the spread in their three lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound, 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites, 80-68 at Portland as 3.5-point dogs and 89-53 over Pacific Lutheran.  Portland just upset Villanova by 12, lost by 8 to UNC and lost by 1 to Michigan State over the weekend, so that 12-point win at Portland looks really good for Seattle now.

Washington is in a letdown spot after an upset win over St. Mary's as 10-point dogs last time out.  Keep in mind this is a Washington team that lost outright to Cal Baptist as 8-point home favorites, only beat Utah Tech by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites and only beat North Florida by 8 as 16.5-point home favorites.  So that upset win over St. Mary's was an aberration.  I think Seattle is the better team here and should not be the underdog.

Washington is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games.  Victor is 6-0 ATS in November games as the coach of Seattle.  Hopkins is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game as the coach of Washington.  Bet Seattle Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +12

The Houston Rockets are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 7 to the Warriors as 11-point dogs, upset the Hawks by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset the Thunder by 13 as 2-point dogs.

The Rockets should not be catching 12 points to the Denver Nuggets, who just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  The Nuggets are back home now after playing four of their last five games on the road.  I think this will be a sleepy spot for them, especially coming off two consecutive road wins over the Thunder (in OT) and the short-handed Clippers.

Denver is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Nuggets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The New Orleans Pelicans cannot be 6-point favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight when they are missing two of their best players.  Both CJ McCollum (18.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG) are expected to miss this game.  Larry Nance Jr. (9.4 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Thunder have been grossly undervalued the past two seasons.  They have been the most profitable team to back because of it.  They sit at 8-12 this season but are clearly improved, and they are as healthy as they have been all season.  I like their chances of keeping this one close and likely pulling off the upset with the Pelicans missing Ingram and McCollum.

The Thunder are 57-35 ATS in their last 92 games as underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They are the much fresher team than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  It will also be their 3rd road game in 4 days.

The Cavaliers needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night.  Garland played over 40 minutes, Mobley over 39 minutes and Mitchell over 38 minutes.  Kevin Love, Lamar Stevens and Jarrett Allen are all out tonight, so they are short-handed, which makes this spot even worse for the Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers.  Take the Raptors Monday.

15* Iowa State/UConn ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 136

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play at one of the slowest paces in the country, play some of the best defense in the country, and struggle on offense.  They are holding opponents to 17 points less than their season averages on the season.

Connecticut is also an elite defensive team which has been the key to its 7-0 start this season.  The Huskies are holding opponents to 13 points less than their season averages.  This game has the makings of a defensive struggle to say the least.

Iowa State is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cyclones last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 224.5

The Boston Celtics have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season.  But that was with Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG), who will miss his first game of the season Sunday with an ankle injury.  The Celtics are going to be lost on offense without out, thus this total is way too high.

This total is also too high when you consider the opponent in Washington.  The Wizards are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 22nd in pace this season while Boston ranks 18th in pace.  The Wizards rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency.  Each of Washington's last four games have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

These teams met on October 30th earlier this season with Boston winning 112-94 for 204 combined points.  The UNDER is now 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and we've seen 223 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Magic UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The 76ers just beat the Magic 107-99 for 206 combined points in Orlando on Friday.  Now these teams meet again two days later Sunday in a rematch in Orlando.

Philadelphia is without its top three scorers in Embiid, Maxey and Harden who combined to average more than 77 points per game.  It's safe to say they are going to continue to struggle offensively without them and have to rely on defense to try and win games.

Orlando has injury concerns of its own with Anthony out, and Suggs, Carter Jr. and Okeke questionable.  The Magic are going extremely big right now as they just started Bamba, Blanchero and Bol against the 76ers last game.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in Magic last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 19-6 UNDER in its last 25 games as a road underdog, including 15-3 UNDER in its last 18 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -3.5

The Penn Quakers were expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season because they returned five starters including three double-digit scorers and all of their top reserves.  They weren't healthy to start the season and lost four of their first five games against a brutal schedule with the four losses coming to Iona, Missouri, Towson and West Virginia.

But they have since gotten healthy and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a road win over Lafayette 74-68 as 5.5-point favorites, a 75-55 home win over Hartford as 19-point favorites and an 81-69 home win over Colgate as 4-point dogs.  Now they host Delaware and should roll at home here Sunday.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and the Quakers have the better depth which will benefit them.  Keep in mind Delaware only beat Colgate by 4.  They also have lost their two true road games to Air Force by 4 and Duke by 34.  This is a true road game for Delaware, which lost four starters from last season that were all double-digit scorers.

Penn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Quakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Quakers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Roll with Penn Sunday.

15* Pacers/Clippers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 222

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA In pace this season, 9th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.  This 222-point total is very low for a game involving the Pacers.  We've seen 15 of 18 Indiana games with at least 221 combined points this season.

This total is low because the Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George right now.  While those are two of their best scorers, they are also two of their best defenders.  The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can still get scoring with John Wall and Norman Powell coming off the bench.  

But they really lose a lot defensively, and that has been evident of late as the Clippers have allowed 114 or more points in four consecutive games.  They have scored 112.8 points per game in their last four games and will get enough points in this one against this soft Indiana defense to send this one OVER the total.

Indiana is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots this season.  The OVER is 22-10-1 in Pacers last 33 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven Sunday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Blazers/Nets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Nets OVER 220.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team with Kyrie Irving in the lineup.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA, but also one of the worst defenders as well.  This 220.5-point total is way low for a game involving the Nets with Irving in the lineup.  The OVER is 7-5 in the 12 games with Irving this season with combined scores of 221 or more points in eight of those 12 games.

This total has been set lower than it should be because the Blazers are without Damian Lillard.  But they have been just fine without him, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have scored at least 108 points in all six games without Lillard while averaging 118.2 points per game in those six games.  Grant and Simons just combined for 82 points in a win over the Knicks last time out.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not.  They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard.

The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard.

Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out.  Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight.  The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup.  The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him.

Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games.  The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent.  The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Rockets OVER 232.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in nine consecutive games and 241 or more in eight of those.

Oklahoma City ranks 4th in the NBA in pace this season.  Houston ranks 10th in pace and will enjoy getting up and down with the Thunder in this one.  The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Thunder rank 22nd, so this sets up for shootout with little defense being played.

We saw that last night for Houston when the Rockets won 128-122 over the Hawks.  That came after a 120-127 shootout loss to Golden State last time out.  The Thunder won 123-119 (OT) over the Bulls last night as well.  So both teams will be on tired legs, and that will affect their defense more than anything.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 OVER when the total is 230 or higher over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 13-2 in Thunder last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 17-5 in Rockets last 22 games playing on zero rest.  The OVER is 4-1 in Thunder last five games playing on zero rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  Now the Texans are a 7-point dog to a Wichita State team that lost three double-digit scores and another who averaged 8.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season.  

The Shockers returned only one starter and are rebuilding under Isaac Brown, who is 31-19 in his first two seasons here.  Wichita State lost 57-66 as 16-point home favorites to Alcorn State earlier this season and is just 3-2 this year.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Shockers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Tarleton State Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Warriors OVER 237.5

Both the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Warriors rank 1st in pace this season while the Jazz rank 10th.  The Warriors rank 12th in offensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 6th.  The Warriors rank 25th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 23rd.

The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in four consecutive games, while allowing at least 113 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Warriors have allowed 120 or more points in four of their last seven, while scoring at least 119 points in four of their last six.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets/Pacers OVER 235.5

Kyrie Irving is back for the Nets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup.  He is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders.  The Nets are about as healthy as they have been all season.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team too and will control the tempo playing at home.  They like to get up and down ranking 4th in the NBA in pace this season.  Indiana is 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency as Rick Carlisle loves playing this style and coaching little defense.

The OVER is 22-9 in Pacers last 31 home games.  The OVER is 25-6-1 in the last 32 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8

The Sacramento Kings are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to go into Boston and take on the defending Eastern Conference champs to try and pull off the upset.  They may not get it done, but getting 8 points with the Kings is too much given their current form.

Boston is also playing well having won 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins were by single-digits plus an upset 14-point loss at Chicago two games back.  They have mostly feasted on a easy schedule during this stretch and are overvalued as a result.

Boston is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  Take the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in eight consecutive games and 241 or more in seven of those.

The Chicago Bulls are rolling offensively right now beating Boston 121-107 two games back and Milwaukee 118-113 last game.  They will be more than willing to get in a shootout with the Thunder tonight, who will force their hand as they rank 4th in pace this season.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.  The OVER is 12-2 in Thunder last 14 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Spurs OVER 227.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs rank 6th in pace.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season as well.

The Lakers recently got Dennis Schroeder back to help them out offensively.  They are likely to get back LeBron tonight too, and their best defensive in Patrick Beverly has been suspended for three games.  All of those things will help us cash this OVER ticket.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (San Antonio) - after beating beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in four consecutive games in November games are 27-6 (81.8%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +9

Tim Miles quickly turned around Nebraska.  He's doing the same at San Jose State now, especially with so much veteran experience and his best player returning.  The Spartans are off to a 4-1 start this season with their lone loss to a good Hofstra team.

The Spartans should not be this big of underdogs to North Texas when you look at what the Mean Green have done so far.  They did beat Fresno by 9 and Paul Quinn, but they lost by 30 as 10.5-point dogs to St. Mary's and nearly lost outright to Southern Nazarene in a 53-47 home win.  Those two results are very concerning for this inexperienced team.

The Mean Green are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  San Jose State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home after going over the total in its previous game.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

20* UNC/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5

We are getting No. 1 ranked North Carolina at a discount today because they have opened 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS.  And they are coming off an 89-81 win over a pesky Portland team as 14.5-point favorites yesterday in what was basically a home game for them being played in Portland.  Now we get the Tar Heels as a single-digit favorite for the first time this season, and we'll take advantage.

Iowa State is overvalued off a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They played three cupcakes in IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to open the season.  They did beat Villanova 81-79 (OT) yesterday, but that's a down Villanova team that already has three upset losses this season.

Now this is a tough spot for Iowa State after needing OT yesterday.  Four starters played more than 35 minutes for the Cyclones yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Tar Heels, who can run them out of the gym and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -5

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  They followed that up with a 75-51 win over a very good Middle Tennessee team as 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 5-point favorites over UNC-Wilmington today.

UNC-Wilmington already has three blowout losses to UConn by 26, Oklahoma by 21 and UNC by 13.  Their two wins have come against Allen and Mount Olive.  Missouri State is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Bears are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss.  It will serve them well moving forward

Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning.  They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9.  But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites.  It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.

Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach.  Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach.  Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Villanova UNDER 131.5

Two teams that play at a snail's pace and play great defense square off today when Iowa State squares off against Villanova.  Iowa State lost their best player to Texas in the transfer portal in Tyrese Hunter, while Villanova is without its best player in Justin Moore until January.

The Cyclones road their defense to the Sweet 16 last year in a miraculous run.  They are defending at a high level again this season, holding their first three opponents to 45.0 points per game and 32.8% shooting.  They should be able to hold this Villanova team in check, too.

Villanova has played a tougher schedule with losses to Michigan State and Temple already.  But they aren't shooting it well at all with a 33.7% clip from 3-point range.  They are in about as poor a shape offensively as they have been in a long time, and a lot of that has to do with Jay Wright retiring.

Villanova is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  Iowa State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games as a neutral court favorite or PK.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 neutral site games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Wildcats last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 222.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They are playing no defense this season but their offense hasn't missed a beat.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game and 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are scoring 115.7 points per game and allowing 118.0 points per game this season.

This total has been adjusted too low because the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  But those are also two of their best defenders and they tend to play slower with them in there.  This is a deep Clippers team so they will still get their points, and I am certain they are a worse defensive team without those two.

That just means more minutes for poor defenders in John Wall, Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell who can all score the ball but play little defense.  They will have to go to more of a small ball lineup tonight to match the Warriors anyway, which also favors the OVER.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going OVER the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 69-32 (68.3%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 229.5

Both the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs are great OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 8th in the league in pace while the Pelicans rank 18th.  The Pelicans rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Spurs rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I think the fact that both teams have gone under the total in consecutive games coming in has this total set lower than it should be.  The Pelicans just played the Warriors without all of their best players in a 128-83 victory.  The Spurs continued their terrible defense allowing 119 to the Clippers and 123 to the Lakers, but they only managed 97 and 92 points in those two games, respectively.  They won't get held down again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 229.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them.  The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven consecutive games, and if they get there again we'll cash this OVER 229.5.

Denver has been a dead nuts OVER team when they have had Jokic and Murray on the floor at the same time.  Well, they're back now after having to sit out due to health protocols.  The Nuggets rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and would be even better if they were healthy all season.

Denver and Oklahoma City have already played in two shootouts this season.  Denver won 122-117 for 239 combined points at home and 122-110 for 232 combined points on the road.  

The OVER is 11-1 in Thunder last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 road games.  The OVER is 25-7 in Thunder last 32 games following a home loss.  The OVER is 8-0 in Thunder's last eight games vs. teams that shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They will be highly motivated to extend their winning streak to eight games.

This is a young, deep Kings team so I'm not concerned with them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.  They should still be pretty fresh considering this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are expected to have all hands on deck tonight and are fully healthy.  I just think they're a better team than the Atlanta Hawks right now.

The Hawks are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Cleveland by 12 last time out, barely beat a short-handed Toronto team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back by 2 in OT, and lost by 25 to Boston at home in their last three games coming in.

The Kings are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Sacramento is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest.  Atlanta is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Coastal Carolina +14

Missouri is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought back just one starter this season.  You wouldn't be able to tell that with their perfect 5-0 record, but that record has them overvalued tonight.

The five wins have come against one of the easiest schedules in the country, and they were nearly upset a couple times.  All five wins came at home over South Indiana (by 6), Penn (by 7), Lindenwood, SIU Edwardsville and Mississippi Valley State.  They were favored by at least 12 points in all five games and only covered two of them.

Coastal Carolina went 19-14 last season under Cliff Ellis, who has spent the past 15 seasons here and has 44 years of experience as a head coach overall.  Ellis welcomes back his best player in Essam Mostafa (13.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG last year) plus two starters.  Mostafa is averaging 16.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG through three games and is a force inside.

The Chanticleers won their first two games by 44 and 63 points against overmatched competition before a 1-point road loss at USC Upstate as 4-point favorites.  They will be refocused and fresh after that narrow defeat playing just their 2nd game in 12 days, getting plenty of practice time to grow together as a team.

I love Eastern Kentucky transfer Jomaru Brown (21.7 PPG, 61.5% 3-pointers) who was a great find in the transfer portal for Ellis.  Linton Brown (16.3 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) is also proving to be a good find.  Holdovers Josh Uduje (12.7 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Wilfred Likayi (5.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 50% 3-pointers) are also fitting in well with the newcomers.  The Chanticleers are shooting 42% from 3 as a team.

Coastal Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Chanticleers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Tigers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Missouri is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Coastal Carolina Wednesday.