15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference.

Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points.

I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake.

Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario.

Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight.

I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league.

This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +5.5

I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets once again tonight because they have nothing to play for as they are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. I did so with success Monday as the Wizards +6 covered at Brooklyn.

The Nets rested Deron Williams, Brooke Lopez and Reggie Evans in that game against Washington. It would be foolish for them to play any of their starters in this one as the most important thing is to be healthy going into the playoffs.

It doesn't matter who the Nets put on the floor in this one. Whoever is out there will be looking ahead to the playoffs and not interested at all in beating the Pistons. Detroit, meanwhile, wants to win this game knowing it will be its last contest of the season.

The Pistons have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, too. They have won four straight coming in, and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three of their outright losses during this span have come by 6 points or less. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it.

Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call.

Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight.

Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night.

The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons will run away with a victory tonight at home over the Philadelphia 76ers. I like how the Pistons are playing down the stretch as they clearly are not packing it in just yet. They are playing out their season.

That's evident by the fact that the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have also won three straight coming in with victories over the Bulls, Cavs and Bobcats by a combined 41 points.

Detroit comes in well-rested on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a 113-93 home victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Philadelphia is a tired team as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after a 91-77 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.

The 76ers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 0 days rest. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with Detroit Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards get the nod Monday as a road underdog to the Brooklyn Nets in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some added insurance in this one folks.

The Wizards have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 45-34-1 ATS in all games this year. Off four straight losses with three coming against playoff contenders, the Wizards will be hungry for a win tonight.

Brooklyn has no reason to even be motivated to play this game Monday. That's because it has already wrapped up the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is locked into the No. 4 seed as it cannot move up or down.

Making sure they're fresh for the playoffs is a much bigger priority. Deron Williams is one of several players who could be rested tonight against the Wizards, so I have no doubt that the Wizards will be putting the more talented team on the floor.

Plus, Washington will be the much fresher team as it will be playing on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a loss to Philadelphia. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days following an 87-93 loss at Toronto Sunday.

The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value at home against the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in a huge letdown spot in this one, and I don't even expect them to show up as a result.

New York is surely going to rest several of its key players after clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 90-80 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Sunday. Now, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days short-handed.

Carmelo Anthony is expected to rest. New York - still without big men Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby - is ready to get some rest.

The Bobcats have lost 14 straight and 21 of 22 on the road, but they're playing well at home toward season's end. Charlotte beat Milwaukee 95-85 on Saturday for its sixth win in eight games at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. Bet Charlotte Monday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have a lot to play for, and I look for a defensive battle because of it.

Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio is battling it out with Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

This play falls into a system that is 75-35 (68.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as both teams are fighting to earn that coveted No. 2 seed in the East to get home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

This play falls into a system that is 130-67 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, on Sunday games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker.

With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84).

Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite.

Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston.

Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Jazz UNDER 196

This is a very important game for the Utah Jazz tonight as they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I look for them to be timid offensively, but to be at the top of their game defensively with what's at stake.

In fact, that has appeared to be the case with the Jazz over the last week as they are really feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Utah's last three games have resulted in an 80-90 loss to the Thunder for 170 combined points, a 97-90 victory at Golden State for 187 combined points, and a 95-83 victory over New Orleans for 178 combined points.

This recent low-scoring trend, plus the head-to-head meetings thus far with the Timberwolves this season, has me backing the UNDER. Utah beat Minnesota 106-84 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd for 190 combined points. The Jazz also won in Minnesota 97-93 on February 13th for 190 combined points.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios.

The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out.

Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well.

When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.

The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The New York Knicks just had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 111-118 (OT) loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and likely win this game outright.

New York comes in a very tired team as this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 7th game in 11 days for the Knicks. This is a short-handed team as it is with all of its injury problems. Raymond Felton (knee) is questionable, while Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Rasheed Wallace are all expected to miss tonight's game.

Cleveland has played New York very tough this season, but it has come up short in both meetings. The Cavaliers lost 102-103 at New York on December 15th in their first meeting, and 97-102 at home on March 4th in their second. There's no question that Cleveland wants revenge tonight. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.

New York is 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Cleveland is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers. With both teams having a lot to play for, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight when they meet up.

Indiana is just two games behind New York for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It is also trying to hold off No. 4 Brooklyn, which is trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Given these scenarios, the defensive intensity is going to be high tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The two meetings between the Pacers and Nets this season have seen 173 and 183 combined points. The final two meetings of last season saw 184 and 181 combined points. They have not topped 184 combined points while averaging 180.3 points/game in their last four meetings.

Brooklyn has really picked it up defensively of late, allowing just 91.8 points/game in its last five games overall. Indiana allows just 90.2 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home this season.

The Pacers are 19-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last 5 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Nets last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder realize that they control their own destiny. Tied with the San Antonio Spurs with the best record in the West at 57-21, the Thunder own the tiebreaker. That means they just need to win out and they'll get the No. 1 seed in the West.

Golden State has a lot less to play for as it's either going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the West, which isn't a huge difference. The Warriors are being overvalued here because they have won four of five coming in.

All four of those victories came against non-playoff teams in the Blazers, Hornets, Suns and Timberwolves with three of them coming at home. Their lone loss was a 90-97 setback at home against the Utah Jazz, who were the only team that had something to play for during this run.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5

This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle.

I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks.

Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points.

Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN.

Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs.

Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them.

Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win.

Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Grizzlies UNDER 186.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this contest tonight folks.

Memphis is a lockdown defensive team that won't allow the Charlotte Bobcats to exceed 80 points tonight. The Grizzlies only allow 89.7 points/game overall, including 87.6 points/game at home. The Bobcats score just 90.7 points/game on the road this year.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The last three meetings between the Bobcats and Grizzlies have seen 181, 165 and 178 combined points. That's an average of 174.7 points/game, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall as they have combined with each of their last five opponents for 185 or less points. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Miami Heat don't have much to play for the rest of the way after already clinching the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference over a week ago. They can still afford to lose a couple more games before having to worry about losing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs against the Western Conference.

This scenario is why I believe that the Heat have been resting players down the stretch. They don't really care about the outcome of these games or they wouldn't do it. Once again, they are expected to rest Dwyane Wade (out), and they are likely to rest Chris Bosh (doubtful) as well.

Milwaukee has a lot to play for tonight. It can still catch No. 7 Boston in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even if it doesn't catch the Celtics, it wants to send a message to the Miami Heat that they will be in for a series if the Bucks have to settle for the No. 8 spot.

The Bucks have already proven they can play with the Heat this year, winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. They also put up a fight on the road on November 21st, falling 106-113 as a 9.5-point underdog. In fact, Milwaukee is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Miami.

Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central opponents. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +10

The Washington Wizards represent my strongest release for the entire 2012-13 season Tuesday night as they travel to face the New York Knicks. Every team gets up to play inside of Madison Square Garden, and the Wizards will relish the experience tonight and make the most of it.

New York comes in way overvalued due to its 12-game winning streak heading into this one. It has also gone 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and now oddsmakers have been forced to set the number so high that the Knicks cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves.

This is a huge letdown spot for New York. That's because it is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in a 125-120 road victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. That game was nationally televised on ABC Sunday afternoon.

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that it is a very profitable 45-31 ATS in all games this year. The Wizards want to even the season series tonight after dropping two of their first three to New York. They won't have any problem getting motivated to try and put an end to this 10-game winning streak.

The Wizards are a sensational 17-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. This trend just goes to show how they take payback personally, and 85% of the time they have come back to cover the spread against these opponents. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* Michigan/Louisville NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Louisville -3.5

The Louisville Cardinals will prove that they are the best team in college basketball and deserved of the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament tonight. I look for them to win and cover against overmatched Michigan in this one.

The Cardinals just have something special going because of the injury to teammate Kevin Ware. They have really pulled closer together as a team, which helped them overcome a hard-fought game against Wichita State in the Final Four. They simply appear to be a team of destiny at this point.

I believe that only having one day to prepare for their opponent will benefit Louisville more than Michigan in this one. That's because the Cardinals are a tougher team to prepare for as they are the best pressing team in the country. They are forcing an average of 18 turnovers/game this season.

Louisville is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Cardinals. Bet Louisville Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +5.5

The Utah Jazz are showing excellent value as a 5.5-point underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is a much more important game for the Jazz (40-37), who trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Jazz have saved their best basketball of the season for last. In fact, they have won six of their last seven games overall. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This team is handling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well.

The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 7-17 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Lakers +5

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value as a 5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. This is a much more important game for the Lakers, and because they want it more, they'll cover this spread, likely winning outright.

The Lakers are 40-36 on the season, which has them 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have actually been playing their best basketball of the season of late with the stakes at their highest.

The Lakers have won three straight heading into this one with victories over the Kings (103-98), Mavericks (101-81) and Grizzlies (86-84). After losing the first three meetings of the season with the Clippers, the Lakers will clearly be out for revenge today.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells you to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5

I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse.

I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game.

Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game.

Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country.

The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance.

Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 193.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle between these two solid defensive teams tonight.

A big reason I'm backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that the Spurs are expected to be without Tony Parker (shin) and Manu Ginobli (hamstring), which are two of their best scorers.

Also, both teams have been prone to the UNDER of late. Atlanta is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall, combining with its opponents to average 187.3 points/game. San Antonio is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games, combining with its opponents to average 181.5 points/game.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 191, 188 and 187 points.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The Hawks are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots this season. Atlanta is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in both team's last four games overall, and we have a combined 30-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5

While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland.

Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge.

The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th.

Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process.

In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak.

Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today.

However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis.

This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all.

In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.

Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8

The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year.

Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight.

The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times.

I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks have fought very hard to get back in position to make a run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for that final spot, and they aren't about to give up now.

Dallas catches the Denver Nuggets in a great spot tonight. Denver is coming off a big road win over the Utah Jazz (113-96) last night as it shot a ridiculous 56.2% from the field. That's the second straight game that it has shot better than 56%. The Nuggets are overvalued as a result, and they'll be tired playing the second of a back-to-back as well.

Home-court advantage means absolutely nothing in this series. In fact, a look at the recent history indicates that you actually want to be the road team. The visitor has won seven of the last nine meetings overall while going a superb 8-1 ATS. Dallas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Denver with its only loss coming by a single point.

The Mavericks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Mavericks are 25-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 13-2 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

25* Big Ten vs. Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa Hawkeyes -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have been undervalued all season, especially toward the end of the year. That's the case once again tonight as they take on the Baylor Bears in the NIT Championship.

I have been saying throughout this tournament that Iowa is the best team in the NIT, and that will prove to be true as it destroys the overmatched Bears tonight. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall as oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve in 10 straight games, and you can make that 11 straight tonight.

While Iowa has posted four double-digit victories in a row to reach the Championship Game, Baylor has escaped with a couple close wins against Arizona State (89-68) and BYU (76-70) to get here. Even its 11-point win over Providence (79-68) was a 3-point game with about 4 minutes to go.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Iowa and Baylor have faced two of the same teams this year in Iowa State and Northwestern. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 against those two teams while outscoring them by an average of 14.2 points/game. The Bears are 0-3 against those two teams, getting outscored by 5.7 points/game.

Iowa is 14-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Iowa is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games. These three trends combine for a 33-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are battling the Denver Nuggets for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. These teams are currently tied at 50-24 on the season, but the Nuggets own the tiebreaker. Denver would be the No. 3 seed, while Memphis would be the No. 5 if the season were to end today.

Playing with home-court advantage in the first round in mind, Memphis has proceeded to win three straight games over Houston, Minnesota and San Antonio heading into this one. While the Grizzlies have a ton to play for, the Blazers have nothing.

Portland has clearly quit on its season by going 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. What makes it so evident is the fact that all five losses have come by double-digits to Oklahoma City (83-103), Brooklyn (93-111), Utah (95-105), Golden State (98-125) and Utah (102-112) again.

This play falls into a system that is 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors come in highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Washington Wizards. Toronto has lost six of its last seven coming in with four of those losses coming against Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Miami, Atlanta and New York (twice).

The main reason the Raptors will be motivated tonight, though, is the fact that they just lost at Washington 92-109 on March 30th just four days ago. While Toronto wants payback, the Wizards will have a hard time getting motivated to beat them again.

Washington is not only in a huge letdown spot for that reason, but also because it is coming off a 90-86 home victory over the Chicago Bulls last night. It will now be a tired team as well playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.

The Wizards are 7-23 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home meetings with Washington. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Maryland NIT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT. They come from the Big Ten, which has obviously shown that it is the best conference in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa finished with a .500 record in Big Ten play this year.

The Hawkeyes have been on a mission to prove that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament by winning the NIT. They continue that mission tonight while looking for their 4th straight dominant victory.

Iowa has beaten Indiana State (68-52), Stony Brook (75-63) and Virginia (75-64) en route to the semifinals. That win against the Cavaliers came on the road, and that's the same Cavaliers team that beat Maryland TWICE during the regular season.

Iowa is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Iowa is 13-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. These four trends combine for a 36-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday.

20* BYU/Baylor NIT Tuesday No-Brainer on BYU +3

The BYU Cougars are showing excellent value as a 3-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Semifinals tonight. I fully expect the Cougars to win this game outright and reach to the Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

BYU (24-11) is one of the most underrated teams in the country. After posting double-digit home victories over Washington (90-79) and Mercer (90-71), it went on the road and knocked off Southern Miss (79-62) as a 5-point underdog in yet another blowout.

The Cougars want revenge from a 64-79 loss at Baylor way back on December 21st in their first meeting of the season. "We're not so excited to play Baylor," BYU coach Dave Rose said. "We played Baylor in December and they handled us pretty well."

This has been a much-improved Cougars team since that defeat. You'll get to witness three of the most underrated players in the country in Tyler Haws (21.6 PPG), Brandon Davies (17.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Matt Carlino (11.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) take it to Baylor in this one.

Baylor is 0-7 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cougars. Bet BYU Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to win in a blowout due to the level of intensity and execution they bring to the court tonight.

The Clippers will be hungry to bounce back from a tough 1-3 road trip that features losses at Dallas, San Antonio and Houston. That includes an 81-98 loss to the Rockets last time out on Saturday, which really leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Los Angeles is dangerously close to losing out on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, it would be the No. 4 seed if the season were to end today, just 0.5 games ahead of the No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies.

The Pacers come in overvalued due to their current 4-game winning streak coming in, which includes three straight road wins over Houston, Dallas and Phoenix. They'll run out of gas here playing their 4th road game in 6 days against a Clippers team that simply wants it more.

Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Central division opponents this season, winning by 14.3 points/game. Indiana is 4-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Spurs/Grizzlies NBA Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following an embarrassing defeat last night. Playing without Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat went into San Antonio and stole a 98-96 victory.

You can bet that Gregg Popovich's team will come back hungry for a win tonight to make amends. That's especially the case considering the Spurs are just 1.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the West.

San Antonio has simply owned this series in recent meetings. The Spurs are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Grizzlies. Their only loss came in Memphis earlier this season on January 11th by a final of 101-98 (OT).

The Spurs are 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 13.5 points/game. Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic should not be catching double-digit points against the Houston Rockets tonight. This is an Orlando team that has been undervalued on the road all season, which is evident by its 21-15 ATS record away from home.

Houston has no business being favored by double-digits tonight considering it will likely be playing without leading scorer, James Harden (foot), who is listed as doubtful. It's also coming off a big 98-81 home victory over the Clippers, setting it up for a letdown spot tonight as it will have a hard time getting up for the Magic.

This play falls into a system that is 50-23 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.

Orlando is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Houston dating back to 2009. The road team has won six of the last 10 meetings outright. Take the Magic Monday.

15* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio -1

The San Antonio Spurs simply need this win more, and that's why I believe they'll get it. They lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by two games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They also trail the Miami Heat by two games for the No. 1 overall seed.

Miami has actually already clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. That's why I look for it to take nights off down the stretch and check out mentally, especially after having its 27-game winning streak just recently ended.

San Antonio wants revenge from three straight losses to Miami in this series. All three of those losses came on the road, including a 100-105 loss at Miami on November 29th in their first meeting this season. The Spurs nearly pulled off the upset despite playing without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobli in that contest.

The Spurs are 32-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points/game. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take San Antonio Sunday.

20* Michigan/Florida Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan +3

The Wolverines will be riding high following their amazing comeback victory over Kansas in the Sweet 16. After blowing out both South Dakota State (71-56) and VCU (78-53) in the first two rounds, they erased a late 14-point deficit to beat the Jayhawks 87-85 (OT).

Florida has been very fortunate to be dealt the easiest schedule of all the teams left in the field. The Gators have drawn Northwestern State, Minnesota and Florida Gulf Coast to reach the Elite 8. Michigan is more battle-tested, and it will use its momentum from the Kansas victory to advance to the Final Four.

The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Florida is 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a win. Bet Michigan Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will blow the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the building tonight. The Grizzlies would currently be the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today, trailing the Clippers by just 0.5 games for No. 4 and Denver by 1.0 games for No. 3.

With playoff seeding on the line, don't expect Memphis to take a night off the rest of the way. That's why I'm not concerned with them coming back tonight and facing Minnesota after a big 103-94 home win over Houston last night.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot following their shocking 101-93 upset home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. They won't even show up tonight off such a big win, especially considering how tired they are. Minnesota will be playing its 4th game in 5 days, and its 7th game in 10 days tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 58-26 (69%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

Memphis simply owns Minnesota. It has gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves dating back to 2010. All 10 victories have come by 4 points or more. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* College Insider Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa -4

The Northern Iowa Panthers are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over Weber State in the semifinals of the College Insider Tournament Saturday. I look for the Panthers to blow the opposition out of the building tonight.

Northern Iowa is the best team left in this tournament. It has posted three straight double-digit victories over North Dakota, Illinois-Chicago and Bradley to reach the semis. Weber State won three straight at home as well to get here, but now it has to take its act on the road, which is a huge disadvantage.

That's especially the case considering Northern Iowa is 16-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.0 points/game. That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams like St. Mary's (82-73), Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54).

Weber State has played a very easy schedule this season. In fact, you could make the argument that this is its toughest game of the year. A couple other tough games for them include a 55-65 road loss at Utah State, and a 68-78 home loss to BYU.

Weber State is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing UNI. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Marquette Elite 8 No-Brainer on Syracuse -4

The Syracuse Orange should be a bigger favorite tonight over the Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette is the most overrated team left in the field, while Syracuse is the most underrated.

This is a Syracuse team that won three games in three days in the Big East Tournament before blowing a 15-point lead in the Championship Game to Louisville as it ran out of gas on the 4th day. It came in playing well, and it has continued in the NCAA Tournament.

The Orange have knocked off Montana (81-34), California (66-60) and Indiana (61-50) by a combined 64 points. Meanwhile, Marquette is lucky to be here, having beaten Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points in the first two rounds.

This is revenge time for the Orange as they lost their only meeting with Marquette on the road by a final of 71-74 on February 25th. The Golden Eagles got all the calls in that game as they shot 35 free throws compared to Syracuse's 7.

Syracuse is 27-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997. Marquette is 4-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. You could certainly make the argument that the Orange are the best team left in the Big Dance right alongside Louisville. They prove it today. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Duke Sweet 16 Friday No-Brainer on Duke -2

The Duke Blue Devils are the superior team in this match-up with the Michigan State Wolverines. This is a very evenly-matched game coaching-wise with Coach K and Tom Izzo going at it, but Coach K clearly will have the better talent on the floor, and that will show Friday night.

The key factor here is the health of Ryan Kelly, who has been the key to the Blue Devils' success this season. In fact, Duke is a sensational 20-1 in all games that Kelly has played in this year. He is clearly the motor that makes this team run.

One look at the history between these teams and it's easy to see that Coach K has not only out-coached Izzo, but he's also had the better talent. In fact, Duke is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with Michigan State dating back to 1998. All six of those victories have come by 5 points or more.

Duke is 7-0 ATS in road games after a non-conference game this season. The Spartans are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Duke Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. That's why I look for them to roll to a blowout win over the Houston Rockets at home Friday.

Memphis is coming off two straight losses and three in its last four games overall. This is a team that is fighting to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and it cannot afford to keep slipping in the standings. I look for it to put its foot down tonight.

The Grizzlies will also be hungry for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season. Memphis lost at Houston 96-121 in their last meeting this season on December 22nd.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings dating back to 2010. Memphis is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home meetings with Houston with all four victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Grizzlies are 28-8 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 14-21 on the road. Memphis is 24-6 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Timberwolves OVER 201.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. It even opened at 203.5 and has been bet down to 201.5. It's time to jump on the OVER tonight folks.

Oklahoma City averages 106.2 points/game on the season and I fully expect it to take care of the majority of this OVER on its own. It did just that the last time these teams met up on February 22nd with a 127-111 home victory over Minnesota for 238 combined points. In fact, the Thunder & Timberwolves have combined for 204 or more points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall.

Minnesota has finally gotten almost all the way healthy, which has really helped its offensive productions of late. The Timberwolves are averaging 109.0 points/game in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 117-120 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Timberwolves are 8-1 to the OVER after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Minnesota is 29-12 to the OVER vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Miami Heat are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They just had their 27-game winning streak snapped against Chicago on Wednesday, and it's going to be hard to get motivated to play the game after that crushing defeat. I look for the Heat to suffer a hangover effect because of it.

New Orleans has proven to be giant killers here of late as it continues to play out its season. It has won three of its last four with victories over Boston (87-86) as a 4.5-point underdog, Memphis (90-83) as a 6-point dog, and Denver (110-86) as a 7-point dog. The Hornets will not be intimidated by the Heat tonight.

The home team has won each of the last six meetings dating back to 2009. In fact, New Orleans is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home meetings with Miami dating back to 2006. The Heat are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 195

This total has been inflated tonight due to the recent meetings between the Hawks and Celtics. They have played three times already this season with the total being set at 187, 185 and 188.5 respectively. As you can see, we are getting a ton of value with this 195 number tonight.

Boston won at Atlanta 89-81 for 170 combined points in their first meeting of the season on January 5th. Atlanta beat Boston 123-111 (2 OT) in their second meeting on January 25th in a game that was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation. Boston then beat Atlanta 107-102 (OT) in their most recent meeting on March 8th in a game that was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation.

These last two overtimes have clearly forced the oddsmakers to inflate this total tonight in their 4th and final meeting. These teams are very familiar with each other having played three times in the past couple months, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Boston has lost five of its last six heading into this one. It tends to buckle down defensively when it's on tough stretch like this one. That's evident by the fact that the Celtics are 7-0 to the UNDER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. They are combining with their opponents to average with their opponents to average 174.9 points/game in this spot. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +2

The Michigan Wolverines represent my strongest release of the entire 2013 NCAA Tournament Friday when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks in the Sweet 16. It's easy to see that the Big Ten is the best conference in the country, and it should not be an underdog to Kansas because of it.

In fact, the Big Ten has sent four teams to the Sweet 16 compared to just one for the Big 12. Kansas even had to escape with a 64-57 win over Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite in the opening round, and erase a 9-point first half deficit against UNC, just to get here.

The Jayhawks were even gifted home-court advantage in the first two rounds as they had to only travel 40 miles from campus over to Kansas City. With home-court advantage gone, and playing a much tougher opponent, Kansas' luck runs out tonight.

Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a rough stretch to close out the season. They have proven that with a 71-56 victory over South Dakota State as a 12-point favorite, and a 78-73 blowout of VCU as a 3.5-point favorite.

Once again, the Wolverines are undervalued tonight as an underdog when they are clearly the superior team. Michigan is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten. Take Michigan Friday.

15* NBA Thursday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks have quietly gotten themselves in position to make one final run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have won three in a row, including Tuesday's victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, to get to within 1.5 games of the Los Angeles Lakers for 8th.

In fact, this team has been undervalued for a couple months now. That's evidenced by the fact that the Mavericks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games overall. This team clearly doesn't get the respect it deserves as it is playing as well as many of the top teams in the league right now.

Indiana comes in fatigued as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. That's a tough spot, especially considering it had to play the Houston Rockets last night, who play at a faster tempo than any other team in the league. The Pacers are in a letdown spot after their big win over the Rockets, and they're going to run out of gas tonight.

The Pacers are just an average team away from home this season, where they are 16-19 on the year. Dallas is a solid 21-14 at home this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The Pacers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dallas is 82-52 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 24-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 37-54 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -5

The Miami Hurricanes should be a much heavier favorite over the Marquette Golden Eagles tonight. They got the test they needed from Illinois in the Round of 32, and made all the big plays down the stretch to get through.

I full expect the Hurricanes to roll to a blowout victory over a Marquette team that doesn't even deserve to be in the Sweet 16. In fact, it has won its first two games against Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points. The Golden Eagles' luck runs out in the Sweet 16.

Miami has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that it is 21-8 ATS in all lined games this year. Despite winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, this team is still undervalued.

The Hurricanes are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 non-conference games. Miami is 43-19-4 ATS in its last 66 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Marquette is 3-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Hurricanes are 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Bet Miami Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2.5

It's now or never for the Portland Trail Blazers. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They believe they still have a shot, which is huge.

Portland checks in well-rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday in a loss at Oklahoma City. It has won the previous two games impressively with road victories at Chicago (99-89) as a 6-point dog and at Atlanta (104-93) as a 7.5-point dog.

Brooklyn comes in overvalued due to having won three of its last four games with all four of them coming on the road. However, all three of those victories came against current non-playoff teams in Detroit, Phoenix and Dallas. They'll start feeling the effects of this long road trip in Portland tonight.

The Nets are 5-15 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game.

Portland is 4-0 SU in its last 4 home meetings with Brooklyn with wins by 13, 7, 10 and 9 points dating back to 2009, respectively. The Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Portland is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are simply catching too many points tonight to the Golden State Warriors. Golden State is in a huge letdown spot following its 109-103 home victory over the rival Los Angeles Lakers Monday night.

Sacramento comes in well-rested having last played on Sunday in a home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Given its tightly-contested recent history with Golden State, it's easy to see that 9 points is too much tonight.

In fact, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less, and by a combined 13 points. Three of those meetings have happened this season with Sacramento winning 94-92 and 131-127 at home, and Golden State winning most recently 87-83 at home as a 10.5-point favorite on March 6th.

This play falls into a system that is 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11.5

I look for the Utah Jazz to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight. Utah simply needs this one more as it trails the Los Angeles Lakers by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It won't be lacking any motivation tonight because of it.

Phoenix has nothing to play for, and it has already shown signs of packing it in over the past few weeks. The Suns have lost nine of their last 11 games overall with seven of those nine losses coming by 13 points or more.

Utah picked up a 107-91 home victory over Philadelphia on Monday to put to end a 4-game losing streak that came against playoff contenders in New York, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas with three of those games coming on the road. This team is certainly battle-tested after that tough stretch.

The Jazz have one their last two home meetings with the Suns by 13 and 12 points with finals of 94-81 and 100-88. Utah is 25-9 at home this season, while Phoenix is just 7-28 on the road, losing by nearly 10 points/game.

The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 24-3 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9

The Providence Friars are showing excellent value as a 9-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Quarterfinals tonight. In fact, they represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NIT Tournament.

Baylor is getting too much respect here due to the extra rest it has had leading up to this game. With a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line, Providence won't show any signs of fatigue despite playing two nights ago in a 77-68 home victory over Robert Morris.

The Big 12 has clearly been the most overrated conference in the country all season. That has been evident in the NCAA Tournament as only Kansas has made it through to the Sweet 16. The Big East has three teams in the Sweet 16 to compare.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-17 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win. Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They lead both Utah and Dallas by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They realize they cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Lakers is the fact that they have lost three straight games heading into this one. They couldn't possibly be playing a better opponent to get back on track tonight considering how they have dominated Minnesota over the year.

Los Angeles has won 21 straight meetings with Minnesota heading into this contest. 19 of those 21 victories have come by 5 points or more, making for a 19-2 (90%) system backing the Lakers dating back to 2007.

Also note that the Timberwolves will be a tired team heading into this one. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is tough for a team that is already short-handed due to injury. Take the Lakers Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on BYU +6

The BYU Cougars should not be catching points against the Southern Miss Eagles tonight. At 23-11 on the season, BYU is one of the most underrated teams in the country. I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight to try and get to Madison Square Garden.

No team has been as dominant as BYU in the NIT thus far. It beat Washington 90-79 at home before dominating Mercer 90-71. This is a very balanced team that can beat you inside and out. Tyler Haws (21.5 PPG), Brandon Davies (18.0 PPG) and Matt Carlino (11.2 PPG) form one of the best trios in the country.

Southern Miss has not been as impressive thus far with a 78-71 victory over Charleston Southern as an 11.5-point favorite, and a 63-52 win over LA Tech as an 8-point favorite. Having just one day to prepare for this complex, up-tempo BYU team simply isn't enough.

The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Conference USA. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Cougars. Take BYU Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Cavaliers UNDER 195.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams are missing key players that will help keep the final combined score UNDER the posted total in this one.

Boston will be without Kevin Garnett (14.9 PPG) and Courtney Lee (7.8 PPG) tonight. They were already without Rondo and Jared Sullinger to boot. Cleveland will be without its top two scorers in Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) and Dion Waiters (14.7 PPG). Third-leading scorer Anderson Varejao (14.1 PPG) was already out.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Each of the last five meetings have seen 194 or less combined points and an average of 181.2 points/game. That's roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Virginia NIT Wednesday No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT in my opinion. The Big Ten has proven to be the toughest conference in the country with four teams through to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is 23-12 on the season with a .500 record in Big Ten play. This team is even better than its record would indicate because it has suffered so many close losses this year.

That includes losses to Indiana (65-69), Michigan State (59-62), Purdue (65-62), Minnesota (59-62), Wisconsin (79-74), Nebraska (70-74) and Michigan State (56-59). As you can see, the Hawkeyes have SEVEN Big Ten losses by FOUR POINTS OR LESS.

Iowa is 12-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Iowa is 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season. These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Mavs TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Dallas Money Line -109

The Dallas Mavericks are quietly sneaking up on that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 1.5 games thanks to a nice run in which they have won eight of their last 11 games overall.

Dallas has been undervalued for quite some time now due to a slow start to the season. That's evident by the fact that it is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games overall. The Mavs should be laying points to the Clippers tonight.

The Mavs come in highly motivated to make the playoffs, but they also want revenge on Los Angeles. They have lost the first two meeting in this series this season, but both of those came in Los Angeles. Dallas is 24-6 SU in its last 30 home meetings with the Clippers.

The Mavericks are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* College Basketball GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bradley +11

The Bradley Braves get the call tonight as a double-digit road underdog to the Northern Iowa Panthers. These are two familiar foes as they both come from the Missouri Valley Conference, and there's no way the Panthers should be favored this heavily because of it.

I have no doubt that Northern Iowa is overvalued here due to its two victories over Bradley in the regular season. UNI won the first meeting 84-53 at home on January 12th, and the second meeting 68-65 on the road on February 10th. The Braves will have serious revenge in mind, while the Panthers will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the same team three times.

This play falls into a system that is 116-58 (66.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BRADLEY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.

Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Bradley is 23-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 21-39 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997. Take Bradley Thursday.

15* LA Tech/Southern Miss NIT BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech +7.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They put together a 27-6 season and I have no doubt that this team is better than several squads in the NCAA Tournament.

They are out to prove it in the NIT, and they are off to a damn good start in doing so. They won at Florida State 71-66 as a 3-point underdog in their opener to pick up a big road win. I fully expect them to win outright tonight as well, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Southern Miss doesn't even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament after a double-OT loss to Memphis in the Conference USA Championship Game. That was evident when the Golden Eagles only beat Charleston Southern 78-71 at home as an 11.5-point favorite in their NIT opener.

These teams actually met once already this season way back on December 8th. Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 65-55 at home as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs limited the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting while forcing 25 turnovers in the victory.

The Bulldogs are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Southern Miss is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. Take Louisiana Tech Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. I look for them to roll to a blowout victory because of it.

The Jazz trail the Los Angeles Lakers by two games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means they cannot afford to take nights off, which isn't the case for Philadelphia (27-42).

The 76ers are certainly fatigued right now as this will be their 4th road game in 6 days out on the West Coast. They played the Clippers, Nuggets and Kings before this contest with the Jazz.

Utah comes in undervalued due to its 4-game losing streak. It lost to the Knicks at home before going on the road and falling to Houston, San Antonio and Dallas. All four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and now the schedule finally lightens up as they welcome the 76ers.

The Jazz are 24-9 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 7-25 on the road. Utah is 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Jazz are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia. The 76ers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the 76ers. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on BYU -7

The BYU Cougars should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Mercer Bears. The Cougars are 16-3 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.3 points/game.

Mercer comes in getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for its 75-67 victory at Tennessee in its first NIT game. It caught the Volunteers in a huge letdown spot as they did not even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament field.

BYU is more than happy to be playing in the NIT, and it wants to get to Madison Square Garden. The Cougars proved that with a 90-79 home victory over a very good Washington team as a 6-point favorite in the opening round.

This play falls into a system that is 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BYU) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).

BYU is 110-69 ATS as a home favorite or pick since 1997. The Cougars are 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Bet BYU Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Denver Nuggets are way overvalued tonight as a 7-point road favorite over the New Orleans Hornets. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their franchise-record 15-game winning streak.

Denver has showed signs of being way overvalued in its last two games. It beat Philadelphia 101-100 at home on Thursday as a 15-point favorite, and topped Sacramento 101-95 at home on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are just 17-19 on the road this season, so they have no business even being favored in this one. That's especially the case considering New Orleans has been giant killers of late.

The Hornets have won their last two games with an 87-86 home victory over Boston as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday, and a 90-83 home victory over Memphis as a 6-point underdog on Friday. They have had two days' rest since that win over the Grizzlies, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Heat/Magic ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Orlando +13

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 26-game winning streak. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games overall with the only exception being a 109-77 home victory over the league-worst Charlotte Bobcats last night.

That means Miami will be a tired team heading into this contest with the Magic. In fact, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. Orlando comes in on two days' rest having last played on Friday in an 89-97 home loss to Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog.

The Heat don't give the Magic the kind of respect they deserve. That's evident considering both meetings this season were decided by a combined 3 points. That includes a 97-96 home victory for Miami on March 6th as a 15-point favorite, and a 112-110 road victory for the Heat on December 31st as a 9.5-point favorite.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have been decided by 13 points. That 13-point victory was by Orlando at home in 2012. Miami's biggest margin of victory over the Magic during this span has been 12 points.

Miami hasn't won in Orlando by more than 10 points since a 105-90 road victory way back in 2004. That's a span of 17 meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system since 2004 backing the Magic. Take Orlando Monday.

20* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 28-6 SU and an incredible 21-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should have been a 20-plus point favorite against Pacific in the Round of 64 as they cruised to a 78-49 victory as a 12-point favorite.

Now, they should be laying double-digits against an overrated Illinois team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. The Illini are one of the most inconsistent teams left in the NCAA Tournament. They rely way too heavily on the 3-point shot.

Illinois attempts 24 3-pointers per game, making just 32.3% of them. That's why they are so inconsistent. They'll be up against a solid defense in Miami that allows just 60.3 points/game and 39.7% shooting, including 32.7% from the 3-point stripe.

Miami is 14-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These four tends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Sunday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Houston Money Line +105

The Houston Rockets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are clearly overvalued here due to the return of Tony Parker to the lineup. I'll take advantage and back the home underdog Rockets.

Houston is 24-10 SU & 21-13 ATS in all home games this season. It is scoring a whopping 110.1 points/game at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game.

The Rockets want revenge from three earlier losses to San Antonio this season. Two of those losses came by single digits, and all three were back in December. This team has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and it will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep tonight.

Houston is an incredible 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday night. This team goes under the radar as nobody is giving it a shot to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Only the Blazers are giving themselves a shot. They only trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. This team is rising up to the occasion as it's coming off two of its biggest victories of the season.

Portland won 99-89 at Chicago as a 6-point underdog on March 21st, and 104-93 at Atlanta as a 7.5-point dog the next night on March 22nd. Those performances just show how the Blazers have taken their game to the next level, and that they are going to fight until the end to get in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City has proven to be overvalued here of late. It is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 104-114 home loss to Denver, an 89-90 road loss to Memphis, and a 97-89 road win at Orlando.

Portland wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma City, including two this season. It lost 87-83 at home to the Thunder on January 13th, and 92-106 on the road on November 2nd. There's no question that the Blazers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Blazers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Portland. Take the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks Sunday. The Bucks come in highly motivated for a victory for a couple of different reasons.

First, Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Indiana heading into this one. That means it will be out for revenge from a 90-98 loss at Atlanta on March 20th less than a week ago. In fact, it has lost both meetings with the Hawks this season, so it will be playing with double revenge.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

Milwaukee is expected to get Ersan Ilyasova (back), one of the most underrated players in the league, back from injury today. He has missed the past three games, and his return will give the team a big boost at home today.

The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Milwaukee Sunday.

20* Wichita State/Gonzaga Saturday Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6

The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite over the No. 9 seed Wichita State Shockers. The reason they're not is because this line is simply an overreaction from what happened in the first round.

Gonzaga struggled to beat Southern, eventually winning 64-58 despite being a 22.5-point favorite. Wichita State crushed Pittsburgh 73-55 despite being a 4.5-point underdog. Clearly, oddsmakers anticipated the betting public would be high on Wichita State and low on Gonzaga because of their performances in the round of 64.

That has created some excellent line value for us, and I'm going to take full advantage. Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, but it simply had an 'off' day. I look for the Bulldogs to rebound with a strong performance Saturday in front of what will be a home crowd for them in Salt Lake City, UT.

Gonzaga is now 32-2 on the season. Of those 32 wins, 24 have come by 7 points or more. Wichita State is getting too much respect here for its win over an overrated Pittsburgh team. Remember, this is the same Shockers team that has losses to Evansville (twice), Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton (twice) this season.

The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Gonzaga is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games. Wichita State is 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Gonzaga Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls represent my strongest release of the entire 2012-13 season in the Eastern Conference Saturday night. I look for the Bulls to blow the Indiana Pacers out of the building tonight folks.

Chicago comes in highly motivated to bounce back from back-to-back losses to Denver and Portland. In fact, it has lost four of its last five games overall. This is one of the most resilient teams in the league under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they have lost all three meetings with Indiana this season. There's no question they'll be fired up for revenge to avoid the season sweep, while the Pacers will have a hard time getting motivated after beating Chicago three times already this year.

While Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, Chicago comes in on one days' rest and playing just its 3rd game in 8 days. I'll gladly side with the more motivated, more rested Bulls in this one folks.

This play falls into a system that is 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival.

Thibodeau is 46-28 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 31-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Chicago Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats Money Line -108

The Charlotte Bobcats are motivated to go for their second 3-game winning streak of the season tonight. I like their chances of getting it against a Detroit Pistons team that appears to have already quit on their season.

Charlotte is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games with wins over Boston (100-74) as a 10.5-point underdog, Washington (119-114) as a 6.5-point dog, and Toronto (107-101) as a 6.5-point dog. It's nice to see that the Bobcats have clearly not quit on their season.

Detroit has been in a free fall since trading away Tayshaun Prince to Memphis. It has lost 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games overall while going a woeful 4-10 ATS in the process. Injuries to Andre Drummond and Brandon Knight have derailed the Pistons' season as well.

The Pistons will have a very hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight. That's because they just played in Miami last night and really gave the Heat a run for their money as they led at halftime. They kept it close in the 3rd before getting blown out in the 4th, falling 89-103. I look for Detroit to come out very flat tonight after such a crushing loss to the defending champs.

Detroit is 8-27 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 9.2 points/game away from home this year. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Take the Bobcats Saturday.

15* Saturday Round of 32 Line Mistake on Harvard +10

Harvard remains undervalued even after its 68-62 victory over New Mexico as a 10.5-point underdog in the Round of 64. The Crimson should not be catching double-digits against Arizona, which is overvalued due to its blowout 81-64 victory against an overrated Belmont team Thursday.

The Crimson have had a lot of luck out West this year, playing some very good team tough. It won at California 67-62 as an 11-point underdog, and lost at St. Mary's in the closing seconds 69-70 as a 12-point underdog. Both of those teams are playing in the NCAA Tournament.

Those weren't the Crimson's only impressive showings on the road, either. They lost at UMass 64-67 as an 11-point underdog, won at Boston College 79-63 as a 4-point dog, lost at UConn 49-57 as a 9-point dog, and lost at Memphis 50-60 as a 13.5-point dog. As you can see, Harvard is certainly battle-tested and proven heading into this one.

Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. The Crimson are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Harvard is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.

20* VCU/Michigan Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines should be a much bigger favorite in the Round of 32 against VCU. This line is simply an overreaction from VCU's blowout victory over Akron in the opening round.

I took Michigan in the Round of 64 in a blowout victory over South Dakota State. This team is still undervalued because it entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a tough finish that included a loss to Penn State, a heartbreaking 71-72 loss to Indiana to cost itself a Big Ten title, and a loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament.

Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan will have home-court advantage in this game as well as this contest will be played in Auburn Hills, MI.

VCU loves to press which can get teams WITHOUT GOOD GUARDS out of their rhythm offensively. Well, Michigan has some of the best guards in the country in Trey Burke and company, and it will eat VCU's press alive. This is simply a terrible match-up for the Rams because of it.

The Rams are 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season. This trend just goes to show how VCU struggles against teams like the Wolverines who can take care of the ball. Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* Minnesota/UCLA Friday Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3

The No. 6 UCLA Bruins should not be an underdog to the No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is another case where the Big Ten is being overvalued simply because almost everyone is proclaiming it as the best conference in the country.

Minnesota went just 8-11 in all Big Ten games this season and still made the NCAA Tournament. They also lost badly to Duke 89-71 on a neutral court in non-conference action. This team was so inconsistent all year with losses to the likes of Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Purdue within the conference.

A big reason UCLA is undervalued here is the fact that they'll be without second-leading scorer Jordan Adams (foot) for the rest of the season. However, this team has plenty of talent to make up for his absence, and they have been preparing to play without him, so it won't be a shock to them.

The Bruins went 25-9 this season, including 13-5 in the improved Pac-12 to capture the regular season title. This is a team that beat Missouri out of conference, and fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Cal, Colorado, and Arizona (three times) within the Pac-12.

Minnesota is 1-14 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Bruins. Bet UCLA Friday.

15* Oklahoma/SDSU Friday Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma +3

The Mountain West Conference is extremely overrated this season. That is certainly reflected in this line as San Diego State is favored over Oklahoma when it really shouldn't be despite being the lower seed.

San Diego State went just 9-7 in the MWC during the regular season before falling to New Mexico 60-50 in the conference tournament. It lost to Syracuse and Arizona on a neutral court in non-conference play in by far its two toughest games outside the MWC.

I just love this veteran Oklahoma team that returned five starters under second-year head coach Lon Kruger, who is a proven winner. The Sooners played in a much tougher conference in the Big 12 while going 11-7 in league play. They beat the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State this year.

Oklahoma has been underrated all season, going a super 17-10 ATS in all games this year. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Mountain West opponents. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off arguably their biggest victory of the season with a 90-89 (OT) home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on a last-second tip-in by Marc Gasol.

Off such a big win, the Grizzlies will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team with a losing record like the New Orleans Hornets Friday. Memphis will also be very tired as this will be its 7th game in 11 days, and it's coming off an OT game.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. New Orleans has played Memphis tough as all three meetings were decided by 11 points or less. In fact, the Hornets went on the road and beat the Grizzlies 91-83 on January 27th as a 7.5-point underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 35-6 (85.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12.5

I look for the Houston Rockets to roll to victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home tonight. In fact, I fully expect the Rockets to be covering this spread by the end of the 1st quarter and to never look back folks.

Cleveland is in a huge letdown spot here. It had a chance to pull off the upset of the season and to put an end to Miami's 23-game winning streak on Thursday, but it blew a 27-point lead and lost 98-95. It will have a hard time recovering from such a tough defeat.

Houston won't have a hard time at all getting up for Cleveland knowing that it just about beat Miami the other night. Plus, the Rockets are fighting for their playoff lives and for playoff positioning, so they cannot afford to take nights off.

The Rockets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Cleveland dating back to 2005. Six of those wins came by double-digits, and five of them came by 15 points or more. Take Houston Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +15.5

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 24-game winning streak. That has been the case for the last half of this streak as they are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

Miami has had a way of playing to its competition during this streak. It has narrow home victories over Sacramento (double OT) and Orlando (97-96), as well as a fortunate road win over Cleveland (98-95) here recently.

The Heat had to come back from 27 points down to beat the Cavaliers on Thursday. They have came way back a few times during this streak, and now it's installed in their minds that they can come back from any deficit. That mentality allows them to be lazy for 3/4 of the game and try the other 1/4.

Detroit comes in undervalued due to its 9-game losing streak, which includes an embarrassing 82-119 loss to Brooklyn last time on out March 18th. The Pistons have had three days off since that defeat, and they'll come back not only motivated to bounce back from it, but to put an end to the Heat's winning streak.

This play falls into a system that is 68-28 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

The Pistons are 31-15 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 41-23 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the Heat. Roll with Miami Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -5

This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. First and foremost, this game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO so the Kansas State Wildcats (27-7) will have a huge home-court advantage over La Salle.

The reason this line is so small is because the betting public saw La Salle beat Boise State 80-71 in the "first four" by shooting lights out from the field. Folks, that's not going to happen again against a much better defensive team in Kansas State.

In fact, La Salle went 31-of-49 from the field including 11-of-21 from 3-point range against Boise State. That 63% shooting percentage was the Explorers' best mark in any game this season. And they STILL couldn't put Boise State away completely.

Kansas State only gives up 60.4 points/game on 41.8% shooting on the season. That's impressive when you consider their opponents combined to average 69.0 points/game and 43.8% shooting in all games this year. That's getting it done defensively folks.

The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Explorers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents. La Salle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Take Kansas State Friday.

15* Friday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Cincinnati +3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats should not be an underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays in this Round of 64 match-up Friday. While the Bearcats are the higher seed at No. 10, they are the better team in this one.

The Missouri Valley Conference was way down this year, which is why I really believe that Creighton is overrated. The Blue Jays had losses to Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State Wichita State and Northern Iowa within the conference. They also lost to St Mary's and Boise State in two of their toughest non-conference games.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati played in the much tougher Big East Conference, which has it more battle-tested heading into this one. It also beat the likes of IOwa State, Oregon, Alabama and Xavier out of conference. Cincinnati will have the home-court edge as well as it is much closer to Philadelphia, PA than Creighton.

The Bearcats are 12-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bluejays are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Cincinnati Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -12

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 27-6 and an incredible 20-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a 20-plus point favorite over Pacific in the Round of 64.

One look at Pacific's performance in non-conference play, and it's easy to see that this team will not be able to compete with Miami. The Tigers have losses to Fresno State, Oral Robers, California (58-78), Gonzaga (67-85), Santa Clara and St. Mary's (46-74).

The Tigers are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games. The Hurricanes are 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. The Hurricanes are 13-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. These last two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Friday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Arizona -4

The Arizona Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite over Belmont Thursday in the Round of 64. The public believes that Belmont has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset, which has kept this line smaller than it should be. I'm not buying it.

Arizona is certainly the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Thursday. The Wildcats went 25-7 this season against a much tougher schedule than 26-6 Belmont faced. They got off to a 14-0 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Florida, Miami, San Diego State and Colorado. This team is the real deal, yet they aren't getting treated like it.

Belmont is a popular upset pick, but the fact of the matter is that this team doesn't have the talent to compete with a loaded roster like the one that Arizona brings to the table. That was evident in non-conference losses to Northeastern (74-71), VCU (65-75), Kansas (89-60) and UCF (66-63).

Another huge advantage is the fact that this game will be played out West in Salt Lake City, UT. There's no question that the Wildcats will have a big home-court edge in this one folks, though they don't need it to destroy the Bruins.

The Bruins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Belmont is 3-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997. Belmont is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats. Roll with Arizona Thursday.

15* SDSU/Michigan Thursday No-Brainer on Michigan -11

The Michigan Wolverines are way undervalued heading into the NCAA Tournament due to a poor finish to the season. They had a chance to share the Big 12 regular season title, but lost to Indiana in a last-second heartbreaker 72-71.

Michigan would go on to beat Penn State before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. That has given it some extra time to get back to the practice court and get back to the basics. Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois.

South Dakota State (25-9) will be no match for Michigan in this one. That's evident with the fact that two of their losses came to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Minnesota (88-64) and Belmont (76-49) in blowout fashion.

Not only is Michigan undervalued due to a poor finish, but it will also have a huge home-court advantage in this one to try and get back on track. This game will be played in Auburn Hills, MI, so you can certainly say that the Wolverines have gotten the luck of the draw here. They will have a big following Thursday night, and I look for these players to feed off of that.

The Wolverines are 22-4-1 (85%) ATS in their last 27 Thursday games. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 19-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take Michigan Thursday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Major Mismatch on Gonzaga -21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will roll to a 22-plus point victory Thursday over the Southern University Jaguars. The Bulldogs will have home-court advantage in the West Region as this game will be played in Salt Lake City, UT which is only several reasons I like them to cover this big number.

The biggest reason I'm backing the Bulldogs is the fact that Southern University played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and it still managed to lose nine games this year. It only played one NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State, losing 59-82 on the road. It also had double-digit losses to lowly Nebraska and TCU, which are bottom feeders in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively.

As you can see, Gonzaga is by far the best team that Southern has faced this season. What's most impressive about Gonzaga's 31-2 record heading into the NCAA Tournament is the fact that 13 of those 31 wins came by 22 or more points. That includes victories over West Virginia (84-50) and Oklahoma (72-47). Plus, Southern is one of the weakest opponents that the Bulldogs have faced all year.

The Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Gonzaga is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* Thursday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -3

Davidson has been one of the most popular upset picks in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. As a result, Marquette is only a 3-point favorite over the Wildcats. I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Golden Eagles in the Round of 64 Thursday because of it.

Davidson comes in way overvalued due to its 17-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. This team really hasn't beaten anyone of any significance during this streak. A look at its non-conference resume tells a different story.

The Wildcats have losses to New Mexico, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Gonzaga, Charlotte, Drexel and Duke. They really don't have a quality non-conference win unless you want to count Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Richmond. I'm not counting them.

Marquette has been underrated all season. It tied shared the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown with a 14-4 mark. This team also has a solid non-conference win over Wisconsin (60-50). Getting the Golden Eagles as only a 3-point favorite is an absolute gift.

The Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 11.6 points/game. The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games. Davidson is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Marquette Thursday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +1.5

The Memphis Tigers represent my strongest play in the Round of 64 for the 2013 NCAA Tournament. They should not be an underdog to the Saint Mary's Gaels in this one folks.

Memphis gets no respect despite its 30-4 record this season. That's because many believe that the Tigers didn't pick up any significant non-conference wins, but I beg to differ. They won at Tennessee 85-80 as a 2.5-point underdog. Sure, they lost to Minnesota, VCU and Louisville, but those aren't really bad losses.

The Tigers are the most athletic team in the entire NCAA Tournament. I believe that athleticism will prove to be too much for Saint Mary's to handle. The Tigers come into this game having won 24 of their last 25 games overall. I don't care who they have beaten during this stretch, that's impressive to say the least.

Saint Mary's is lacking quality wins as well. It has losses to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa this season. Its biggest wins have come against BYU and Creighton, which is far from impressive.

This team is simply getting too much respect for its 67-54 win over an overrated Middle Tennessee State team in the first round on Tuesday. I actually had the Gaels picked in that contest, but I'll gladly fade them as they take a huge step up in competition here.

Memphis has a big edge in rest and preparation as it was clearly getting ready for Saint Mary's or Middle Tennessee on Monday and Tuesday, while the Gaels had to get ready for the Blue Raiders. Saint Mary's is 1-7 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis Thursday.

20* La Salle/Boise State TruTV No-Brainer on Boise State -1.5

I fully expect Boise State to blow La Salle out of the building tonight. The talent level between these two teams is far and away in the Broncos' favor. I look for that to show on the court in this one.

Boise State is 21-10 on the season and well deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid. It played a tough non-conference schedule that featured a 70-74 loss at Michigan State as a 15.5-point underdog, and an 83-70 win at Creighton as a 13-point dog. It also played in the tough Mountain West which features three other NCAA Tournament teams in New Mexico, SDSU and UNLV.

While La Salle has a better record at 21-9, it's a bit inflated due to a weaker non-conference schedule. The Explorers are not playing well heading into the big dance, getting blown out 54-78 at Saint Louis, and 58-69 on a neutral court against Butler in their last two games.

One big factor in deciding the outcome of this game is kind of going unnoticed. That's the injury to La Salle center Steve Zack, who is out with a foot injury. Zack leads the team in blocks (36) and is second in rebounding (6.4 RPG). This is a small Explorers team as it is, and without Zack, they are going to get killed on the boards and in paint scoring.

The Explorers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boise State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Boise State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. Bet Boise State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +8.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Warriors are back on track and playing great basketball right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one outright.

Golden State has won four of its last five games overall, which includes a blowout home victory over New York (92-63), and back-to-back blowout road wins over Houston (108-78) and New Orleans (93-72). Yet, this team continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers.

San Antonio simply isn't the same team without Tony Parker. That's evident by the fact that it is just 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which includes a 106-136 home loss to Portland, and an ugly 83-107 road loss to Minnesota. Its 92-91 home win over Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite and its 119-113 home victory over Cleveland as a 15-point favorite weren't impressive, either.

This has been a very closely contested series of late with each of the last three meetings being decided by 7 points or less. That includes a 95-88 home victory by San Antonio on January 18th in their first meeting this season, and a 107-101 home win by Golden State on February 22nd in their second meeting of the year.

Golden State is 50-32 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 15-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take Golden State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +5

The New Orleans Hornets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. Boston is in a terrible state of mind after letting a double-digit lead slip away Monday against Miami, eventually losing 103-105. It will certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat tonight.

New Orleans comes in hungry for a victory after losing each of its last four games heading into this one. Three of those losses came on the road. I like its chances of bouncing back against a Boston team that is just 12-20 SU & 12-18-2 ATS in all road games this year.

The Hornets simply have the Celtics' number in this series. In fact, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Boston despite being an underdog in all five contests. That includes a 97-78 victory in their most recent home meeting, and a 90-78 road victory in their first meeting this season on January 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a close home loss by 3 points or less.

This play falls into another system that is 34-6 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Western Conference rivalry between Oklahoma City and Memphis. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these familiar foes who have some recent playoff history between them. Points will be hard to come by tonight.

Memphis was a low-scoring, defensive-minded team before trading away Rudy Gay. Since the trade, that has been the case even more as they lost their best scorer. It is scoring 93.5 points/game and allowing 89.2 points/game overall, including 93.0 and 86.8 at home.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Memphis' last four games overall with a 96-85 road win over the Clippers, an 80-87 loss at Denver, an 84-90 setback at Utah, and a 92-77 home victory over Minnesota. Those are four good offensive teams, and they combined with the Grizzlies to score 181, 167, 174 and 169 points, or an average of 172.8 points/game.

Playing at home, I look for Memphis to control the tempo and make this an ugly, half-court game. I don't believe the Thunder will be able to run at all like they normally like to. That's because they are a tired team right now. Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 9th game in 14 days after losing to Denver last night.

This play falls into a system that is 29-9 (76.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.

This play falls into another system that is 92-42 (68.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in March games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Mavs NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks have been in must-win mode for quite some time now. They continue to be considering they are 32-35 on the season, which has them just three games back of the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Dallas has been playing its best basketball of the season for a few months now while continuing to be undervalued due to its losing record. That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 4-point favorite over the Nets tonight.

Dallas has won six of its last eight games overall. Its only losses during this stretch came 91-92 at San Antonio as a 9.5-point underdog, and 101-107 vs. Oklahoma City as a 5-point dog. Those are the two best teams in the Western Conference, and the Mavs lost to both by a combined 7 points.

The Mavs beat the Nets 98-90 on the road on March 1st in their first meeting this season. Brooklyn is just 4-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. The Nets are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.

Dallas is 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. These two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge from a 78-92 loss at Toronto on March 15th, which was less than a week ago. The Bobcats will want payback, while the Raptors will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they just throttled just a few days back.

I really like Charlotte's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home here of late. In fact, it has won its last two home games with a 100-74 victory over Boston as a 10.5-point underdog, and a 119-114 triumph over Washington as a 6.5-point dog.

Toronto has no business being favored on the road against anyone, especially with the way it is playing of late. It has lost eight of its last 11 games overall with its only victories coming against Phoenix, Cleveland and Charlotte during this span. The Raptors are only 9-24 on the road this year.

Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Raptors. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 4-0 SU & in its last 4 home meetings with Toronto dating back to 2010. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* MTSU/Saint Mary's TruTV No-Brainer on Saint Mary's -3

The Saint Mary's Gaels certainly deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, on the other hand, do not. That's evident when you look at the strength of schedule that these teams have faced.

St. Mary's is 27-6 on the season with three of its losses coming against current No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga. Its other three losses all came away from home to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, which are three quality teams. The Gaels have beaten NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Harvard, and they have two wins over a very good BYU team as well.

While Middle Tennessee State is 28-5 on the season, a closer look shows that it really hasn't beaten anyone special. Its five losses have come to Florida (45-66), Akron (77-82), Belmont (49-64), Arkansas State (60-66) and Florida International (57-61). What the committee apparently considering its significant wins were vs. Ole Miss (65-62), at UCF (75-61) and vs. Vanderbilt (56-52). I really don't see a quality win there anywhere.

The Gaels are a perfect 19-0 SU in their last 19 games against teams other than Gonzaga dating back to December 27th. They are more battle-tested heading into the big dance, and as a result they will be more prepared to beat a team like Middle Tennessee State tonight. I believe that St. Mary's is the second-best team that the Blue Raiders have faced all season, and they won't be ready for it.

MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Gaels. Take St. Mary's Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northeastern +12

Northeastern is showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to Alabama Tuesday night in the opening round of the NIT. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Huskies in a game that I believe they can win outright.

Alabama comes into the NIT in a poor state of mind. After beating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, it thought it had a legitimate shot to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It lost to Florida in the next round and was left out by the committee. The Crimson Tide likely don't even want to be here.

Northeastern (20-12), on the other hand, is ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament to James Madison. The Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Of their 12 losses, only two came by more than 11 points. Those were a 63-83 loss at UAB, and a 57-70 loss to James Madison on a neutral court.

What I love most about Northeastern is the fact that it has played its best basketball on the road this season. In fact, it is just 7-8 at home this year, and an incredible 13-4 on the road. The Huskies will not be intimidated by Alabama's home crowd one bit tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.

Alabama is 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. The Huskies are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Northeastern Tuesday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +11

I'm siding with the Orlando Magic tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Orlando is underrated due to its 18-49 record on the season, and that has been evident over the past few weeks as it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97 (OT) loss at Miami as a 15.5-point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog.

As you can see, the Magic have been very competitive against some of the top teams in the league. They did lost 86-115 at home to Indiana on March 8th less than two weeks ago during this stretch. However, that places the them in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat.

Indiana is in a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days after winning at Cleveland last night, which followed up losses to the Lakers and 76ers. The Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated to beat a Magic team that they just throttled on March 9th.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is the fact that David West (back) missed last night's game and he's unlikely to return tonight against Orlando. So there's a good chance they'll be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days. West is their second-leading scorer (17.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.7 RPG).

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - good defensive team - allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.

The Magic are 20-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These six trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Orlando. Roll with the Magic Tuesday.