15* Virginia/Gonzaga CBS ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +8.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are exactly the type of team that can slow down the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  They have been among the best defensive teams in the country under Tony Bennett for years.  And that's the case again this season as they give up just 54.0 points per game and 36.3% shooting.

I like the fact that Virginia returned from its 17-day absence from COVID problems and looked very sharp in a 76-40 win as 23.5-point favorites over William & Mary on December 22nd.  And now they are highly motivated to try and knock off the No. 1 team in the country in Gonzaga.  Getting 8.5 points with a team the caliber of Virginia is an absolute Christmas gift.

The Cavaliers are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games as underdogs.  Virginia is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Cavaliers and 'sell high' on the Bulldogs today.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Michigan State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140

The head-to-head history in this series really stood out to me this morning when looking into this game.  There's no way this total should be 140 with how low-scoring this series has been over the last several years.

Indeed, the UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.  Wisconsin and Michigan State have combined for 137 or fewer points in each of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140-point total.  They have averaged just 126.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which gives us roughly 13 points of value here.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers made a big run in the bubble last year just to make the playoffs.  It showed what they could do when they are healthy, and that is the case for them to open the 2020-21 campaign here.

Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are still the cornerstones.  Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept them off the floor for length stretches last season.  They brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to provide scoring punch off the bench.  And they acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up their defense.  I absolutely love this team this season.

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are cornerstones for the Jazz, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of their team.  Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are old.  As is one of their biggest acquisitions in Derrick Favors, who spent 8.5 seasons in Utah before getting traded to New Orleans.

Portland is 37-16 SU in its last 53 home meetings with Utah.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Jazz.  The home team won all three meetings last season.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Rutgers/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) responded from a loss to Purdue in their Big Ten opener with a 77-70 win over a very good UCLA team on Saturday.  They got leading rebounder E.J. Liddell back from a two-game absence due to mononucleosis and should be closer to full strength for this game now as the Buckeyes are highly motivated for their first conference victory.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on unbeaten Rutgers (6-0) tonight.  The Scarlet Knights have opened 2-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Maryland and Illinois after a soft early schedule.  But they just lost starting center Clifford Omoruyi to an injury in the win over Illinois and his loss will be feld here against Liddell and Ohio State.

Ohio State is 8-2 SU against Rutgers as Big Ten members, including 5-0 SU at home.  The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games off an ATS win.  Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games.  The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Bet Ohio State Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should come out hitting on all cylinders.  They won the NBA title last year and return all their key pieces from that team plus add in some nice players, including former Clipper Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention last year's top draft pick Talen Horton-Tucker had a monster preseason with 20.5 PPG and 53.8% 3-point shooting as the Lakers cruised to a 4-0 record.

Things didn't go near as smoothly for the Clippers in the preseason.  They went 0-3 and lost to the Lakers twice 81-87 and 106-131.  And they played their starters more minutes in those games than the Lakers did.  The Clippers also lost 105-125 to the Jazz.  They are trying to implement several new players and things will probably start poorly for them this season, starting with this showdown with the Lakers.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +12

North Dakota State's 2-5 record has the Bison undervalued.  But they are in the midst of their toughest nonconference slate in school history having already traveled to No. 11 Creighton, No. 7 Kansas and Nebraska.  They are battle-tested and ready to go.

Keep in mind the Bison covered in road losses to Creighton (58-69) as 23.5-point dogs and Kansas (61-65) as 24-point dogs.  They also only lost to a very good South Dakota State team 75-77 as 7.5-point dogs.  They have proven they can hang with those teams, so they definitely can hang with TCU here.

This is a good 'sell high' spot on TCU.  The Horned Frogs are coming off two straight wins and covered over Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.  Now they step back outside of Big 12 play here and won't be nearly as motivated for face NDSU as they were Oklahoma State last time out.  This is a TCU team that only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 earlier this season.  They aren't good enough to get margin on this underrated NDSU team tonight.

North Dakota State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS loss.  TCU is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.  Take North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -5

The East Carolina Pirates returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the American Athletic Conference.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to SMU, which is 5-0 this season.

Last year ECU crushed Tulane in both meetings with an 81-62 win at home and an 81-67 win on the road.  With the Pirates having all five starters back, it should be more of the same here against a Tulane team that returned just one starter.

Tulane is getting too much respect here for its 5-1 start this season.  The loss came to Memphis, and the five wins were against awful competition in Lamar, Lipscomb, Southern Miss, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Grambling.  They will meet their match here in the Pirates with this big step up in class.

The Green Wave are 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  This will be their first road game all season as well as their first six games have all been at home.  East Carolina has played two tough road games at Charlotte and SMU.  They are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 13.4 points per game.  Roll with East Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -9

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most talented teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year and added some real talent for Penny Hardaway.  But they are off to a disappointing 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS start this season, and I think this is a good opportunity to 'buy low' on them as a single-digit favorite here against Tulsa.

The three losses came to WKU, VCU and Auburn.  They have also beaten Tulane and St. Mary's.  So Memphis has played a pretty tough schedule and is battle-tested now.  This team is only going to get better as the season goes on as they develop chemistry with all this talent.

Tulsa is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS with its only two wins coming against UT-Arlington and Northwestern State.  They lost to TCU, Wichita State and South Carolina.  Memphis will be the best team that they have played yet and it's not really even close.

Memphis is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Tulsa with 11 of those wins coming by 9 points or more.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games off a road win.  Take Memphis Monday.

15* Saint Louis/Minnesota CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Saint Louis -2

The Saint Louis Billikens have now won 11 straight games dating back to last season.  They are loaded this year with five returning starters for head coach Travis Ford.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

The Billikens have opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS this season with four wins by 19 points or more, an 11-point win over NC State and a 4-point win over LSU.  So it's not like they have feasted on a soft schedule.  They are shooting 52.7% as a team and giving up just 40.3% shooting, winning their six games by an average of 24.4 PPG.

Minnesota opened 6-0 against an extremely soft schedule with wins over Green Bay, Loyola-Marymount (twice), North Dakota, Kansas City and Boston College.  They needed overtime to beat BC.  Then they finally stepped up in class and got blasted 65-92 at Illinois last time out.  And now they have a game on deck against a Top 5 Iowa team.  This is a sandwich spot for them as they jump out of conference play sandwiched between two huge Big Ten games against ranked opponents.  I don't expect them to handle it well.

The Billikens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Saint Louis is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gophers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  Minnesota is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Saint Louis Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) off their first loss of the season.  They blew an 8-point lead in the final two minutes and lost 76-77 to TCU as a 5-point favorite.  This is a team that went on the road and beat Marquette earlier this season and they are still one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Look for them to bounce back with a big effort here against Texas.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Texas, which has won its last two games in blowout fashion over Texas State and Sam Houston State.  The Longhorns have two wins by a combined 4 points this season plus a loss to Villanova.  They are being asked to get margin here against an Oklahoma State team they are very comparable to talent-wise.

Oklahoma State went on the road last year and crushed Texas 81-59 as a 4-point underdog.  Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after having won five or six of its last seven games coming in.  The Longhorns are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on CS-Northridge +12

Northridge has really impressed me this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1 ATS with their only losses coming by 5 to Air Force and by 11 to Stanford as a 16-point dog.  They upset Pepperdine as a 15.5-point dog and also upset Seattle as a 2-point dog.  They can hang with this rebuilding California team today.

California played that same Pepperdine team and lost 62-74 to them to give these teams a common opponent.  The Golden Bears are now just 3-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season with their only wins coming against Northwest College, Nicholls State and San Francisco.

Northridge is 11-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  California is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off two consecutive non-conference games.  The Matadors are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games overall, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight.  Take CS-Northridge Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +5

Western Kentucky is loaded this season with five returning starters.  They are one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country.  They are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to West Virginia and Louisville.  They also upset Memphis while beating both Rhode Island and Northern Iowa.  They have been battle-tested and Alabama will only be the third-best team they have played this season.

Alabama was very fortunate to beat Furman as a 6-point favorite.  They didn't lead in that game until there was under a minute remaining.  They won 83-80 as a 6-point favorite.  The Crimson Tide are now 4-2 this season with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Clemson.  They are once again being overvalued here as 5-point favorites over a Hilltoppers team that will likely win this game outright.

Alabama is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Hilltoppers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road dogs.  The Crimson Tide are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Iowa CBS No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They prove it once again Saturday with an upset win over the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs.  This is an Iowa team that returned all five starters, and that experience is showing early in the season.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming on a banked 3-pointer from half court at the buzzer against Southern.  They beat North Carolina by 13 and Iowa State by 28.  They have the best big man in the country in Luka Garza, and he is surrounded by four shooters at all times as the Hawkeyes are averaging 12 made 3-pointers per game and shooting them at a 39.8% clip as a team.

Gonzaga hasn't played since an 87-82 win over West Virginia as an 8.5-point favorite on December 2nd.  That's the same WVU team that nearly lost outright to Iowa State last night, which is the same Iowa State team that Iowa beat by 28.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few says his team practiced on Thursday for the first time since its COVID-19 pause on December 4th.  He is very concerned about their conditioning and their ability to execute against Iowa.

"I can tell you in the 22 years I've been coaching this is probably the biggest challenge I've faced as a head coach," Few said.  To even use the term 'monumental challenge' would be doing it a disservice.  Then there is the factor of a game plan for one of the top offenses in college basketball and the best scorer in college basketball."

Iowa is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after committing 11 or fewer turnings in two straight games.  The Hawkeyes are 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Iowa is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

20* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +6.5

Montana State is 2-1 this season.  The Bobcats pulled the 91-78 win at UNLV as 12.5-point dogs in their opener.  Then they played a very good Pacific team and only lost 70-74 (OT) as 4.5-point dogs.  And they crushed overmatched Yellowstone 114-74 in their most recent outing.

The Bobcats are one of the better offensive teams in the country.  They are scoring 91.7 points per game on 51.1% shooting overall and 44.1% shooting from 3-point range.  Defensively, they have held opponents to just 38.4% shooting overall as well.

Washington State is a fraudulent 5-0 against a very soft schedule.  All of their wins have come down to the wire as they are 5-0 with an average margin of victory of only 4.6 points per game.  They only beat Texas Southern 56-52 as a 12-point favorite, Eastern Washington 71-68 as a 5.5-point favorite, Idaho 61-58 as an 18.5-point favorite and Portland State 69-60 as a 9-point favorite.  Four of their five wins have come by 4 points or less.

Montana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a road game.  Washington State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games off five or more consecutive wins.  The Cougars are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Take Montana State Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -1.5

Richmond returned all five starters this season from a team that went 24-7 last year.  They are a team I have been backing with regularity, and they are certainly worth a bet today as only 1.5-point favorites over Loyola-Chicago.

There is a big strength of schedule disparity here.  Richmond has played the 67th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are 5-1 with their only loss coming to a Top 10 West Virginia team whose only loss came to Gonzaga.  They have wins and covers over Kentucky, Northern Iowa and Vanderbilt as well.

Loyola-Chicago is also an experienced team that returns all five starters.  But they are just 3-1 with their three wins coming against Lewis, Chicago State and Illinois-Chicago.  Their loss came 63-77 to Wisconsin as they were way overmatched by the Badgers.  The Ramblers have played the 215th-toughest schedule in the country, almost 150 spots lower than Richmond.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after playing a road game.  The Ramblers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-25-1 ATS in its last 35 Friday games.  Roll with Richmond Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -7

The Oregon Ducks are loaded with talent yet again this season for head coach Dana Altman.  But they didn't get to play a game until December 2nd due to COVID.  And they lost 75-83 to Missouri in their opener because of it.  That's a Missouri team that is one of the most underrated in the country as they just beat Illinois too.  And that loss has the Ducks undervalued.

Oregon has gone 4-0 since with a 13-point win over a very good Seton Hall team.  And now they have had four days off to get ready for San Francisco here.  Altman is not happy about how poorly his team has shot the ball, and a lot of that has been due to the rust and the focus on Final exams.

"We've got good 3-point shooters.  I'm not saying great, but we've got good ones and they're going to have to put some time in," he said. "There's no excuse not to be in the gym.  I can't force them, but they've got to get in there on their own and get some shots up and get ready to shoot the ball."

San Francisco has been overrated since defeating then-No. 4 Virginia 61-60 on NOvember 27th.  They went 13-for-28 from 3-point range in that game to pull off the upset.  Keep in mind this is the same San Francisco team that lost outright to UMass-Lowell as a 14-point favorite, were beating by 13 by Rhode Island and were upset by California.  This will be their toughest test yet against Oregon.

The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  Oregon is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive gams.  Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Dons are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss.  The Ducks are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games overall.  The Ducks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Take Oregon Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTEP +13.5

The UTEP Miners started 2-0 this season before facing a gauntlet with games against St. Mary's and Arizona.  But they held their own in those two games, covering in a 61-73 loss at St. Mary's as 12.5-point dogs and covering in a 61-69 loss at Arizona as 15.5-point dogs.  Now I expect them to stay within 13.5 points of overrated Arizona State here.

"We kept battling and we weren't going anywhere," UTEP coach Rodney Terry said of the effort against Arizona. "I love my team; this team's going to be really good.  We're learning some tough lessons right now through playing some really good competition."

UTEP's Souley BOum scored 16 against Arizona after reaching 20-plus points in each of his first three games.  Boum is averaging 23.5 points this season, knows how to get to the basket, has a penchant for drawing fouls and has hit on 13-of-24 (54.2%) 3-pointers this season.

This is as much of a fade of Arizona State as it is a play on UTEP, though.  The Sun Devils came into the season ranked 18th in the country.  They lost to Villanova by 9 and San Diego State by 12.  They are 4-2 this season with just one win by more than 8 points, and that was a 23-point win as a 37-point favorite against Houston Baptist.  

The Sun Devils needed a last-second 3-pointer just to beat Grand Canyon 71-70 on Sunday as an 8-point favorite.  They only beat Cal by 8 and failed to cover in a 6-point win over Rhode Island.  They aren now just 1-5 ATS this season and have been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They get outrebounded by 6.2 boards per game and play shaky defense, allowing 76.7 points per game and 45.1% shooting.

The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Sun Devils are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Arizona State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, including 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  Bet UTEP Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +8

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have their most talented team of the Josh Pastner era.  He has almost everyone back from a team that caught fire in February.  Senior PG Jose Alvarado, junior wing Michael Devoe and Moses Wright are among four returning starters for the Yellow Jackets this year.

The Yellow Jackets are undervalued now after upset losses to Georgia State and Mercer in their first two games.  They have since bounced back with an upset win over Kentucky 79-62 as a 6.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Nebraska 75-64 as a 1.5-point favorite.  They forced a combined 37 turnovers in those two games while only committing 15 miscues themselves.

"This is us," Alvarado said.  "This is Georgia Tech from now on.  I'll be shocked if we stop playing like this.  We've got to keep improving because we are a really good team."

Wright (21.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG) and Alvarado (17.8 PPG, 4.0 APG) lead five players all scoring 11 points per game or more.  They also have Parham (13.0 PPG), Devoe (12.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Usher (11.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) making significant contributions.

This is a young, rebuilding FSU team that lost PG Trent Forrest, plus guards Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell, who were picked four and 11th in the 2020 NBA Draft, respectively.  That’s a lot to replace for head coach Leonard Hamilton.

But the Seminoles are overvalued now after a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start.  They beat North Florida, which is 1-7 this season.   They survived Indiana 69-67 as a 3-point home favorite.  Then on Saturday they beat rival Florida 83-71 at home.  Now this is a letdown spot for them, and they only have two days to get ready for Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets have five days to get ready after last playing on Wednesday.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Yellow Jackets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The underdog is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Chicago +9.5

Loyola-Chicago is the best team in the Missouri Valley this season and it's really not even close.  They returned five starters and 91.7% of their minutes from a team that went 21-11 last year.  Senior Cameron Krutwig is back after doing it all for the Ramblers last year, averaging 15.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.2 SPG.  

He is joined by fellow seniors Lucas Williamson, Tate Hall and Keith Clemons.  Clemons and Hall combined to make 44% of their 3-pointers last year.  Marquise Kennedy is also a 3-point sniper and returns.  The additions of Cooper Kaifes and Braden Norris gives them great depth.  Kaifes shot 36.5% from 3-point range in 2018-19 before sitting out last year.  Norris made 48.6% of his 3-point shots in 2018-19 before transferring from Oakland.

The Ramblers are off to a 3-0 start this season and winning by 25.3 points per game.  They are shooting 54.9% as a team, including 41.3% from 3-point range, and averaging 80.3 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 55.0 points per game, 37.9% shooting and 26.9% from 3-point range.

Wisconsin got a lot of hype coming into the season with four starters back.  But they have failed to meet expectations.  They are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS.  They lost outright to Marquette as a 3.5-point favorite, and their four wins have come against Eastern Illinois, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Rhode Island.  They only beat Eastern Illinois by 10 as a 22-point favorite and Rhode Island by 11 as an 11-point favorite.  Loyola-Chicago might be the best team they have faced yet.

Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game.  The Ramblers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs.  Take Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 5-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue, by 11 over Mississippi State, by 16 over Maryland and by 8 over Alabama.

As you can see, the Tigers have faced a brutal schedule and have gotten through it unblemished.  They have done so behind one of the best defenses in the nation.  The Tigers are allowing just 51.4 points per game, holding opponents to 34.9% shooting and forcing 19 turnovers per game.  Purdue is the only team to top 56 points against them this season.

Virginia Tech has been overvalued since a shocking upset of Villanova as a 9-point dog in their second game of the season.  They trailed VMI late and needed a big surge to win 64-57 as a 20-point favorite.  Then they lost 55-75 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Penn State.  There's no way the Hokies should be favored against the Tigers today.

Clemson wants revenge from two losses to Virginia Tech last season.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off two or more consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +7.5

Penn State is a 19-point blown lead against a good Seton Hall team away from being 4-0 this season.  They led that game by 8 with two minutes to go as well, but eventually fell 92-98 in overtime.

The Nittany Lions have played a tough schedule thus far.  They also have a win over VCU and a dominant 75-55 win at previously unbeaten Virginia Tech as 5.5-point dogs.  That's the same VA Tech team that upset Villanova earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions are a real contender in the Big Ten this season.

While Penn State has faced a gauntlet of a schedule, Michigan has been feasting on terrible teams during its 5-0 start.  The Wolverines have wins over Bowling Green, Oakland, Ball State, UCF and Toledo.  This is a huge step up in class for them today, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  They are way overvalued due to this 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS start.

Penn State has won their last two meetings with Michigan outright as underdogs.  They won 72-63 as 4.5-point dogs at Michigan, and 75-69 as 7-point home dogs.   The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.   Penn State is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Penn State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Richmond +7.5

Richmond is loaded with four returning starters this season from a team that went 24-7 last year.  They are off to a 4-0 start this season with an upset win over Kentucky.  They have five players averaging over 12 PPG this season with Golden (15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Cayo (14.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG), Francis (13.8 PPG), Burton (12.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Gilyard (12.3 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.3 SPG).

The Spiders are coming off a 10-point home win over Northern Iowa on Wednesday.  Now they've had three days to get ready for West Virginia.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers only have one day to get ready for Richmond.  They are coming off a 62-50 win over North Texas as a 13.5-point favorite on Friday.  

And they had to use a lot of energy to bounce back from a 29-21 halftime deficit against a mediocre Mean Green squad.  The game prior, they trailed a bad Georgetown team 34-32 at halftime and came back to win 80-71, but failing to cover an as 11.5-point favorite.  And they are definitely overvalued here again as a 7.5-point favorite against a Richmond team that has Sweet 16 potential.

Richmond is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The spot favors the Spiders, and they have a great chance to win this game outright, let alone cover this 7.5-point spread.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +10

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

The Purple Eagles finally got to play their first game on December 3rd.  They lost that game 45-75 to Syracuse.  They were clearly rusty as they shot just 27.7% from the field.  That rust carried over in their 54-70 loss to St. Peter’s last night as they shout just 35.1% as a team.

Now this is a rare situation where the Purple Eagles get to play St. Peter’s for a second consecutive day.  And I love this situation as they will be the more motivated, revenge-minded team here.  And we are getting an even better number on them than we did yesterday here as 10-point dogs.

After losing by 5 to St. Peter’s in their first meeting last year, Niagara came back with a 63-54 upset victory as 5-point dogs.  And I think they can pull the upset here in their rematch in 2020, let alone cover this 10-point spread.

Niagara is 9-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Purple Eagles are 7-0 ATS off two straight losses by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Niagara is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Niagara Saturday.

15* Alabama/Clemson Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Clemson +2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 4-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue, by 11 over Mississippi State and by 16 over Maryland.  They should not be underdogs to Alabama today.

Alabama is 3-1 this season with an 18-point loss to Stanford.  Their three wins have come against suspect competition in Jacksonville State, UNLV and Providence.  This will be the Crimson Tide’s toughest test yet.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive wins.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -12.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are loaded this season with five returning starters, including Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season while outscoring their opponents by 27.8 points per game.  And they would be 4-0 ATS if not for a banked 3-pointer from halfcourt at the buzzer.

After making each work of three teams all by 27 points or more, the Hawkeyes were tested last time out against North Carolina.  The passed with flying colors in a 93-80 win as 4-point favorites in a game they controlled from start to finish.  Garza finished with fewer than 20 points for the first time in 20 games, but he still contributed 14 rebounds and four blocks.

That performance against UNC showed Iowa can still win as a team even when Garza doesn’t have a monster game.  Jordan Bohannon drilled seven 3-pointers, while CJ Frederick (21 points) and Joe Wieskamp (19) each had five 3-pointers.  And now the Hawkeyes take a step down in class here against the rival Iowa State Cyclones.  They’ll have no problem running up the score here.

Iowa State is in the midst of a 9-day layoff.  The Cyclones trailed by 15 points against South Dakota State before making it a 68-71 loss by the end of regulation.  And they trailed lowly Arkansas-Pine Bluff at halftime before winning 80-63 as a 33-point favorite.  They lost their best player Tyrese Haliburton to the NBA lottery, and there just isn’t much talent on this Cyclones team.  Steve Prohm is doing a terrible job, killing the tradition of great basketball in Ames.

Iowa has been an underdog to Iowa State in each of the last two meetings, and they blasted them 98-84 at home in 2018 and 84-68 on the road in 2019.  And oddsmakers still aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here in this 2020 meeting as they should be closer to a 20-point favorite.

Iowa State is 3-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +9

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

The Purple Eagles finally got to play their first game on December 3rd.  They lost that game 45-75 to Syracuse.  They were clearly rusty as they shot just 27.7% from the field.  They should be much sharper this time around, and it will help them taking a big step down in class here against St. Peter’s.

The Peacocks are 2-2 this season and coming off a 57-90 loss to Maryland as 12.5-point dogs.  That’s the same Maryland team that was just blown out by Clemson.  St. Peter’s only has wins over LaSalle and Stony Brook this season.

Last year, Niagara lost by 5 to St. Peter’s and won by 9 in the rematch.  So with all five starters and four of their top five scorers back, they should have no problem covering this 9-point spread in their first meeting of the 2020-21 season.

Niagara is 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Purple Eagles are 14-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last three years.  The Purple Eagles are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games off a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Niagara Friday.

15* Indiana/FSU ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers returned four starters this season and this is Archie Miller’s best team yet.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season, and I think their 44-66 loss to No. 17 Texas was an aberration that has them undervalued.  They shot just 23.9% in that defeat.

Indiana has been simply dominant in its other three games, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won by 30 over Tennessee Tech as a 25.5-point favorite, by 21 over Providence as a 2-point favorite and by 16 over Stanford as a 1.5-point dog.  Trayce Jackson-Davis is averaging 21.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG and is one of the best players in the country.

While Indiana gained some great experience playing against quality competition in the Maui Invitational, Florida State only has one game under its belt.  That came in an 86-58 win over North Florida as a 25.5-point favorite.  A quick look at North Florida shows that they are 0-6 this season with five losses by double-digits.  They aren’t very good.

This is a rebuilding FSU team that lost PG Trent Forrest, plus guards Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell, who were picked four and 11th in the 2020 NBA Draft, respectively.  That’s a lot to replace for head coach Leonard Hamilton.  I’ll side with the veteran Hoosiers who have proven themselves already against the much tougher competition.  Roll with Indiana Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Toledo +14.5

The Toledo Rockets have been too good to be catching 14.5 points from Michigan.  They are 3-2 this season with both their losses coming by a combined 5 points on the road to Bradley and Xavier.

They only lost 59-61 at Bradley as 2.5-point underdogs and 73-76 at Xavier as 8.5-point dogs.  That’s a very good Bradley team and a Xavier team that is 6-0 this season.  They beat Oakland by 27 as an 11-point favorite, Cleveland State by 9 as an 8.5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite.  So the Rockets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season.

Michigan covered its last two as well against UCF and Ball State at home, as well as a cover in a 14-point win over Bowling Green as a 13.5-point favorite.  But the 81-71 (OT) win over Oakland as a 31.5-point favorite really stands out like a sore thumb.  And now Toledo will be the best team that the Wolverines have faced yet this season.

The Rockets are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference road win.  Toledo is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road Ames off an ATS win.  The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Bet Toledo Wednesday.

15* Maryland/Clemson ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -2

Clemson went just 16-15 last season and 9-11 in the ACC, but they did knock off three teams that were in the Top 5 of the rankings when they played them.  And now the Tigers returned four starters from that squad and should be one of the most improved teams in the ACC.

The Tigers have started eight different players and have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  Their depth will be some of the best in all of college basketball this season.  And they are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 11 over Purdue and by 11 over Mississippi State.

Those two wins trump anything that Maryland has on its resume.  The Terrapins are 4-0 this season, but their four wins have all come at home over Old Dominion, Navy, Mount St. Mary’s and St. Peters.  They will now be playing their first road game of the season, and the Tigers are allowing 1,860 masked and socially distanced fans inso Littlejohn Coliseum.

The Terrapins lost Jalen Smith to the NBA lottery, had a bad recruiting class and had five reserves transfer in the offseason.  That’s why they are picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten this year.  So their 4-0 start is a mirage because it has come against such a soft schedule.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following two or more consecutive wins.  Maryland is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Terrapins are 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Clemson Wednesday.

20* UNC/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are loaded this season with five returning starters, including Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with all three wins by 27 points or more.  And they would be 3-0 ATS if not for a banked 3-pointer from halfcourt at the buzzer.

Garza does it all for the Hawkeyes.  He is shooting 76% from the field and average 34 points over his first three games.  He has also connected on 5-of-8 from 3-point range.  Joe Wieskamp is 6-of-12 from beyond the arc and C.J. Fredrick is 5-of-10.  This team is loaded with shooters surrounding Garza, making them a serious national title contender.

North Carolina has been up and down this season thus far.  They opened the season with blowout wins over bad Charleston and UNLV teams.  They were fortunate to beat Stanford 67-63 as they were sloppy with the ball and committed 24 turnovers.  And then they lost at the buzzer to Texas, 67-69.  This will be their toughest test of the season here tonight.

Iowa is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Hawkeyes are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games where it had 10 or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Tar Heels are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +7

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on Boston College.  They are 1-3 SU this season, but that is due to a brutal schedule where they have been underdogs in three of their four games.  They upset Rhode Island as a 2-point dog, only lost to Villanova by 9 as a 15-point dog, and lost by 4 to Seton Hall as a 2-point favorite.  Then they were blown out by 20 last time out as a 5.5-point dog, and that result has them undervalued.

The Eagles certainly are battle tested, while the Minnesota Golden Gophers are not.  Their schedule couldn’t have been any easier during a 4-0 start, and now it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Gophers.  They have wins over Wisconsin-Green Bay, Loyola-Marymount (twice) and North Dakota.  They only beat Loyola by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite and North Dakota by 9 as a 22-point favorite in their last two games.

The Eagles have been a great offensive team this season, averaging 74.8 points per game with five players averaging in double figures.  They are Winston Tabbs (15.5 PPG), CJ Felder (11.3), Jay Heath (11.3), Rich Kelly (11.0) and Makai Ashton-Langford (10.0).  This is a game the Eagles will have a chance to win outright tonight.  Roll with Boston College Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +9

The Pepperdine Waves are loaded this season with four starters and 82.5% of their minutes returning from last year.  Each of their top three returning scorers all made 34.9% or better from 3-point range.  This looks like Lorenzo Romar’s best team yet in his second stint in Malibu.  Senior Colbey Ross (20.5 PPG last year) is back along with junior wing Kessler Edwards (14.0 PPG).

The Waves are off to a 2-1 start this season.  They beat UC-Irvine 86-72 before losing to UCLA 98-107 in three overtimes.  They came back with a 94-45 win over St. Katherine.  That means they have played the exact same three opponents as San Diego State, which beat UCLA 73-58, UC-Irvine 77-58 and St. Katherine 83-41.  Those are two nearly identical results plus the win over UCLA.  But Pepperdine played UCLA tough, too.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.

Pepperdine is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Waves are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. good pressure teams that force 18 or more turnovers per game.  Pepperdine is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Waves are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  This 9-point spread is simply too much today.  Take Pepperdine Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are loaded this season.  They went 19-12 last year and returned 70% of their scoring.  Back to lead the way are seniors Brady Manek (14.4 PPG last year) and Austin Reaves (14.7 PPG).

You could say the Sooners got off to a great start this season with a 105-66 win as 15-point favorites over UTSA on Thursday.  And now they are ready to take down a rebuilding TCU team that is very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.

Indeed, the Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 as 18.5-point favorites.  Now they take a big step up in class here and all that they lost in the offseason will take its toll.

TCU lost 11 of its final 14 games last season.  They lost the program’s third all-time leading scorer in Desmond Bane.  They lost PG Kendric Davis in the transfer portal to SMU.  That is proving to be a huge loss as Davis is averaging 21.3 PPG and 8.0 APG through four games with the Mustangs.

The Sooners are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with TCU.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -19.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were a Top 5 team coming into the season.  But they were upset 60-61 as 15-point favorites over San Francisco.  They are undervalued as a result of that loss. Their other two games have been dominant with an 89-54 win over Towson State and a 76-51 win over St. Francis.

Now the Cavaliers should make easy work of a rebuilding Kent State team tonight.  The Golden Flashes lost five of their top six scorers from last season.  They return just one player who averaged at least 4.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG last season.  And they will be playing just their second game of the season after a cake walk game against Point Park.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That early wake up call in a loss to San Francisco will keep the Cavaliers focuses in the immediate future to put teams like Kent State away for 40 minutes.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +20

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

Syracuse has been dealing with Covid-19 issues and it showed in their opener against Bryant.  They had just one day of practice before nearly getting upset by Bryant in an 85-84 win as 22.5-point favorites.  Niagara is much better than Bryant and should not be catching 20 points here.

Last year, Syracuse only beat a bad Niagara team 71-57 as 22.5-point favorites.  And I have no doubt this Niagara team is way better than that team, while Syracuse is down this year.  Especially now that 6-10 senior Bourama Sidibe went down with a torn meniscus against Bryant.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.  The Orange are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.  Roll with Niagara Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas-Little Rock ML +100

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Little Rock has been impressive this season in a 2-1 start despite being underdogs in two games already.  They did lost 70-77 as 5.5-point dogs to Greensboro, but came back to beat a very good Duquesne team 76-66 as 6.5-point dogs that just upset Greensboro 81-61 last night.  Little Rock has shot 50% or better in each of its last two games and is starting to get in a groove offensively.

Winthrop also beat Greensboro 75-67 as a 6-point dog in their opener.  But this will be just their 2nd game overall and their 2nd game in 3 days.  Little Rock has had the last two days off, so they will be the fresher and more prepared team here.  And it’s worth noting Little Rock went 2-1 against common opponents that Winthrop went 0-2 against last year.  Little Rock outscored those teams by 9.7 points per game while Winthrop was outscored by 3.5 points per game.

Little Rock is 6-0 ATS off an upset wins an underdog over the last two seasons.  Little Rock is 10-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Winthrop is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock on the Money Line Thursday.

20* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +9

The West Virginia Mountaineers returned four starters this season and are loaded.  They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins over South Dakota State, VCU and Western Kentucky with are three of the better mid-major teams in the country this year.

Gonzaga is overvalued in this matchup due to its No. 1 national ranking.  They did beat two big names in Kansas and Auburn, but those are two rebuilding teams.  And they allowed 90 points and 53.2% shooting to Kansas, a Kansas team that just shot 30% against Kentucky last night.  And Auburn needed overtime to beat St. Joe’s and lost outright to UCF, 55-63 in its two games outside Gonzaga.

It’s also worth noting the Bulldogs are dealing with Covid-19 issues which has affected their practices.  Bob Huggins called up contacts at ESPN just to get into this tournament specifically to face Gonzaga, so you know he’s confident his team can compete here.  I think they’ll be in this game for 40 minutes with a chance to win outright in the end.

The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Duquesne ML +115

The Duquesne Dukes have improved every season under head coach Keith Dambrot.  They won 21 games last season.  Now they have four starters and six of their top eight scorers back from a year ago and will be a real contender in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Forwards Marcus Weathers (14.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG last year) and Michael Hughes (10.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG) will be problems for everyone this year.

I think the Dukes are being undervalued here because they were upset by Arkansas-Little Rock in their opener as 6.5-point favorites.  But that’s a Little Rock team that returned all five starters from a year ago.  And UNC-Greensboro only beat Little Rock 77-70 for a common opponent, and they’re getting too much credit for that win.

Greensboro went on to get upset 67-75 by Winthrop as a 6-point favorite yesterday.  So now Greensboro is at a huge rest disadvantage because they will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, while Duquesne had yesterday off.

Greensboro is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 3rd game in 5 days.  The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Roll with Duquesne Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +4

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

Western Kentucky has played a brutal schedule thus far and has gotten through with flying colors.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (3-0 if bet early number) against Northern Iowa, Memphis and West Virginia.  They won and covered against the first two, then gave WVU all it could handle in a 64-70 loss as closing 5.5-point dogs.  Hollingsworth (19.0 PPG) and Bassey (15.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.7 BPG) have been a handful thus far.

Louisville is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS against a much softer schedule.  They have blowout wins over Evansville and Prairie View A&M but barely beat Seton Hall 71-70 as 5.5-point favorites.  The Cardinals are missing several players due to injury, including center Malik Williams, who is recovering from foot surgery.  Samuell Williamson, another center, is day-to-day with a dislocated toe.  They aren’t going to have an answer for Bussey inside here.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Western Kentucky is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.  The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Kentucky +17

Eastern Kentucky is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They beat North Florida 80-67 as 1-point favorites and Charleston Southern 60-50 as 6-point favorites.  They play at the seventh-fasted pace in the country and have already forced 46 turnovers in two games.

I think that pace will give Xavier a problem here.  Xavier will be playing its 4th game in 6 days and will have a hard time keeping pace.  The Musketeers are tired, and they are very fortunate to be 3-0, which has them overvalued.  They hit a game-winner with 5.4 seconds left to beat Bradley 51-50 as 10-point favorites, and they needed an 8-2 run to close to top Toledo 76-73 as a 9.5-point favorite.

Eastern Kentucky is a lot better shooting team than they have shown.  It’s impressive that they have two double-digit victories when you consider they have shot just 9-for-56 (16.1%) from 3-point range.  That just shows you how good their defense has been.  They will shoot it better against Xavier here.

Eastern Kentucky is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games over the past two years.  The Colonels are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Colonels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  Eastern Kentucky is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Bet Eastern Kentucky Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +8.5

The Richmond Spiders went 24-7 last season and return all five starters.  I like their experience here early in the season against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is playing 10 newcomers.

PG Jacob Gilyard was 10th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and led the nation with 3.19 steals per game.  Senior Nathan Cayo had 23 points and made all 10 of his field goal attempts in an 82-64 win over Morehead State Friday.

Kentucky started four freshmen and senior transfer Olivier Starr from Wake Forest against Morehead State.  They have seven freshmen and three transfers among their newcomers.  And this test against veteran Richmond will be much more difficult than the Morehead State game was for them.

Richmond is 8-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -8.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team in their opener.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  They Wildcats are a legit national title contender in 2020.

They came back and topped a nationally ranked Arizona State team 83-74 as 6-point favorites.  Robinson-Earl showed out with 28 points, while Moore (16), Daniels (14) and Gillespie (11) helped lead the way once again.  These four players are a real handful for any team.

Virginia Tech is picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC by most publications, and for good reason.  They lost their best player in Landers Nolley to Memphis via transfer.  And the transition from Buzz Williams to Mike Young as head coach wasn’t a great one.  They went just 2-13 ATS over their final 15 games and finished 6-15 ATS in ACC play.

The Hokies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games.  Roll with Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

The UCLA Bruins will be looking to bounce back from a bad loss to San Diego State in which they were 3-point favorites and lost 58-73 after shooting just 39.5% from the floor and committing 15 turnovers.  They will be much sharper here against Pepperdine, a team that is now getting too much respect after beating UC-Irvine 86-72 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  So it’s a good ‘buy low’ on UCLA and ’sell high’ on Pepperdine situation here.

The Bruins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  Pepperdine is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +8

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

And they’ve shown it in their first two games.  They beat Northern Iowa 93-87 as a 3.5-point favorite in their opener.  And yesterday they backed it up with a 75-69 upset win as 4-point dogs over Memphis.  That’s a Memphis team that might be the most talented in the country.  And now they are getting zero respect as 8-point dogs to West Virginia today in a game they could win outright.

The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Western Kentucky is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Villanova/ASU ESPN Late-Night DESSERT on Villanova -4.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team yesterday.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  More concerning is that Arizona State struggled to put away a rebuilding Rhode Island team 94-88 yesterday. 

The Wildcats are 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Villanova is a legit national title contender and should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.  Roll with UCLA Wednesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -22

The Houston Cougars made a deep run into the NCAA Tournament two years ago before 'settling' for a 24-8 season last year.  Now the Cougars return their entire backcourt in Caleb Mills, De’Jon Jarreau and Quentin Grimes.  

Both Jarreau and Grimes are future NBA players, and Mills compliments them well.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson got a great big man transfer in Reggie Chaney from Arkansas.  It’s easy to see why for the first time in 37 years that the Houston Cougars (No. 17) open the season as a Top 25 team.

Lamar is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games with a total set of 135 to 139.5.  The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* 2020 CBB Season Opener on Arkansas-Little Rock -12

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Prairie View A&M returns just one starter this season and loses each of its top five scorers from a year ago.  So we have one team here returning all five starters and one team basically losing all five.  Little Rock should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Wednesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6 

The Los Angeles Lakers got a monster game from Lebron James and a solid one from Anthony Davis in Game 5 and still couldn’t beat the Heat.  That’s a great sign for the resilient Heat moving forward in this series. 

Once again, the Heat are catching too many points in Game 6.  They were only getting 4.5 in Game 1, and oddsmakers have adjusted their lines drastically since.  They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in this series while being anywhere from a 6 to 10-point dog.  And now they are 6-point dogs for Game 6. 

Amazingly, the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in four of five games in this series.  They were tied at 14 apiece in Game 5, but the Lakers have still made 12 more 3-pointers in this series than the Heat.  And Miami is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, while the Lakers are one of the worst.  Maybe this is finally the game the Heat make more, even though they’ve proven they don’t need to to hang in this series. 

Miami is 15-4 ATS in all playoff games this season.  The Heat have bee grossly underrated all postseason, and they continue to be in Game 6 tonight.  It has to be deflating to LeBron to play as well as he did in Game 5 and still come up short.  It’s going to give Miami belief, and it’s going to give LeBron and company doubt.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Sunday. 

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

The Miami Heat were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 of this series.  They are now 7.5-point dogs in Game 5.  There’s value with the Heat, just as there has been in each of the last three games as they were 7.5, 9 and 10-point dogs.  They went 2-0-1 ATS in those three games.

The remarkable part about this series is that the Heat are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA while the Lakers are one of the worst.  But the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in every game thus far and lead with 59 makes compared to just 45 for the Heat.  I guess you could say the Heat are due to out-shoot them.

Getting Bam Adebayo back for Game 4 was huge for the Heat and it was a one-possession game almost the entire way.  He has two more days to recover and heal up now after they last played on Tuesday.  The Heat won’t go down without a fight, and I love them catching 7.5 points in this elimination game.  Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Friday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

What’s amazing is that the Miami Heat still won Game 3 despite making fewer 3-pointers than the Lakers for a 3rd straight game.  They won in blowout fashion even 115-104.  At some point the Heat being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is going to show in this series.

The Lakers have now made 45 3-pointers in this series compared to just 34 for the Heat.  This should even itself over the course of the remainder of the series considering the Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Heat as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, and he’s likely to play.  His defense on the inside is huge for this team.  And it makes sense that this line has went from 9.5 down to 7.5 for Game 4 with his expected return.

It’s still too high, and there’s not 7.5 points difference between these two teams.  Keep in mind the line was 4.5 for Game 1.  Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

The Miami Heat are the better 3-point shooting team than the Lakers in this series.  Yet, the Lakers have out-shot them in both of the first two games of this series.  I have to think the Heat will shoot better than the Lakers in 3 tonight with the law of averages.

The Lakers made 15 3-pointers in Game 1 compared to just 11 for Miami.  In Game 2, the Lakers made 16 while the Heat made only 11.  And the Heat are having to go small ball now and put more shooters on the floor with their injuries.  But there is a chance they get Adebayo back tonight, which would be huge for them.

The Heat are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss.  Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Miami is 23-8 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +10

This is too big of an adjustment for the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic.  The Heat go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 10-point dogs in Game 2 with the news that Adebayo and Dragic are both doubtful.

The Heat have been one of the deepest teams in the NBA all season.  So they have the depth to overcome these injuries, and more importantly the heart to overcome them.  You know Jimmy Butler will do more, and I expect his supporting cast to follow his lead in this game.

The Heat are a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  They winning SU by an average of 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss dating back further.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Friday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been the most impressive team in the playoffs.  They dismantled the Pacers in four games, the Bucks in five and the Celtics in six.  They just play so well together as a team and don’t have a weakness.

The Los Angeles Lakers pretty much cruised their way to the NBA Finals.  They faced a banged up Blazers team, a Rockets team that couldn’t handle their size, and a Nuggets team that was running on fumes after two seven-game series but still gave them a run for their money.

Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every season and will match up with Anthony Davis as well as anyone.  And the Heat have defenders to slow down LeBron James as much as possible in Butler, Iguodala and Crowder.  This is actually a great matchup for the Heat, and it should show starting with Game 1.

Miami is 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in playoff games this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214.5

The Heat and Celtics have gone over the total in three straight games now.  That has forced oddsmakers to set this total 7.5 points higher than it was in Game 2, which was set at 207.  Now it’s 214.5 and the highest total of the series.  There’s definitely value with the UNDER because of it.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5

The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history.  And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.

And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1.  They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series.  They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch.  They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.

Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5

Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5.  There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.

It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals.  But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game.  It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number.  That’s unlikely to happen again.

Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting.  It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.

The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6

The Denver Nuggets are so resilient.  They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105.  And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3.  Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4.  After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.

That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight.  It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.

In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times.  The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30.  They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3.  There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all.  They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.

The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer.  They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.  

They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games.  They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.

Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5

The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1.  They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win.  Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.

The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits.  They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.  

But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs.  And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Take the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by.  Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.

The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER.  And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again.  The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals.  They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on.  After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.

The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series.  They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.

We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers.  They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here.  The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.

Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season.  The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5

The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1.  And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there.  Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.

Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1.  The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range.  Those numbers are close to their season averages.  They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.

As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.

Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108

The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs.  They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games.  They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.

This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game.  And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.

The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors.  And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

I cashed in the Rockets/Lakers UNDER in Game 4 and I’m back on the UNDER today.  Three of four games in this series have seen 214 combined points or fewer.  The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and the Rockets get a bad reputation as their defense is better than their ’small ball’ lineup would suggest.

As we’ve seen with every series in the 2nd round, points come hard to get the deeper a series goes.  Teams get familiar with one another, and there are fewer fast break opportunities.  It basically becomes a half court game in the playoffs the deeper a series goes.

Houston is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  Los Angeles is 25-12 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Saturday.

20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are very fortunate to still be alive in this series.  They needed a buzzer-beater in Game 3 to avoid falling down 0-3, and they needed double-overtime to win Game 6.  The Celtics have clearly been the better team in this series, and they will win Game 7 by being the better team tonight.

Boston hasn’t shot worse than 42.1% in any game in the series, and has shot 44% or better in five of the six games.  Toronto has shot 43.6% or worse in five of six games, and 40% or worse in four of those.  The Celtics are clearly the better defensive team.

Boston is 18-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins more than 70% of their games this season.  Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216

The Nuggets and Clippers are coming off a very low scoring Game 4 and oddsmakers haven set this total too high once again for Game 5.  They just combined for 181 points in a 96-85 victory for the Clippers in Game 4.  

Now they have the total at 216, which they have lowered, but it’s just not low enough.  As a playoff series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, which favors defense.  And it leads to fewer fast breaks and a lot of half court offense.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Nuggets last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five games overall.  The UNDER is 40-18-1 in the last 59 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 219.5

Both the Lakers and Rockets shot really well in Game 3 and it still saw just 214 combined points.  The Lakers shot 55.1% while the Rockets shot 46.9% from the field.  I would have a hard time seeing either team shooting as well in Game 4.

As we’ve seen with the other 2nd round series thus far, the deeper it gets into the series, the harder it is to score points.  That’s because teams become more familiar with one another, and it inevitably becomes a half-court game with few fast break opportunities.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six games overall.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +8

The Denver Nuggets have really impressed since coming out flat in Game 1.  That was expected as they were just coming off a 7-game series against the Jazz in which they put a lot into coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win that series.

But the Nuggets look rejuvenated in their last two games.  They pulled the 110-101 upset in Game 2 as 8.5-point dogs, and led most the way over the Clippers in Game 3, only to fall short 107-113.  

The Clippers even shot 54.7% as a team in Game 3 and still only won by 6 points.  It’s going to take a lot for the Clippers to be able to put away the Nuggets by 8-point points tonight.

Denver is 8-0 ATS after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus fewer free throws than their opponent over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are coming back to win by 10.2 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a 117-109 victory as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Rockets.  Now they go up 2-1 with another win and cover in Game 3 tonight.

The Lakers won despite the Rockets making 10 more 3-pointers (22) than they did (12).  Los Angeles took advantage of its size and got easy bucket after easy bucket.  The Lakers shot 47-of-83 (56.6%) from the field.  Look for them to continue to be aggressive with Lebron and Anthony Davis both getting to the rim at will.

The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were one shot away from being up 3-0 in this series.  They suffered a heartbreaker in Game 3 at the buzzer, and then in Game 4 they simply shot poorly while the Raptors shot lights out from 3-point range.

Indeed, the Celtics had their worst shooting game of the series, making just 7-of-35 (20%) from distance.  The Raptors shot 17-of-44 (38.6%) in the same game, yet the Celtics still had a chance late and only lost 93-100.  Look for a role reversal here.

Even though I cashed the Raptors the last two games, I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, so I have to side with them in this all-important Game 5.  Boston is 12-2 ATS vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games this season.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers showed some rust in Game 1 against the Blazers in the first round because they weren’t trying too hard in the bubble.  But they rebounded to win the next four games, including a 111-88 blowout in Game 2.

The Lakers were rusty again coming into Game 1 against the Rockets in Round 2.  They had six days off prior to Game 1 and the rust showed.  The Lakers shot just 42.2% from the field and 28.9% from the 3-point line.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Now the Lakers go from being 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 down to 5.5-point favorites in Game 2.  I don’t agree with the line adjustment, and there’s clearly value with the Lakers here as they’ll be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency than Houston.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Raptors/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +1.5

The Toronto Raptors are going to have a great mindset heading into Game 4 tonight.  They saved their season with a 3-point buzzer beater in a 104-103 win over Boston in Game 3 after losing a 99-102 heartbreaker in Game 2.  Now they have the belief they can get it done.

The Celtics have simply shot better than the Raptors from 3-point range in this series, which has really been the difference.  The Celtics are 41-of-106 (38.7%) for the series while the Raptors are 34-of-120 (28.3%).  The Raptors shot it better than the Celtics during the regular season so that should even itself out, and it did in Game 3.

Toronto is 14-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs.  Toronto is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5

The Milwaukee Bucks are basically in a must-win situation here now down 0-2 to the Miami Heat.  While I knew the Heat would give them a series because they are gritty and have great shooting, I have to go against the Heat in this situation.

Miami will relax while Milwaukee will simply want it more.  And I trust Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments in this one.  The Bucks shot poorly and still almost won Game 2, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 28% from 3-point range.  I expect them to improve upon those numbers in Game 3 tonight.

Milwaukee is 45-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 25-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games following a loss.  Bet the Bucks Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors ML -112

The Toronto Raptors blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half over the Celtics in Game 2.  It was all Marcus Smart as he went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in the 4th quarter alone and was unconscious.  I don’t see that happening again.

Now down 0-2, the Raptors are in must-win mode, and I trust their championship pedigree to get the job done in Game 3 and get back into this series.  They clearly have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.

Indeed, the Raptors shot just 36.9% in Game 1 and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Then they shot just 40% in Game 2 and 11-of-40 (27.5%) from 3-point range.  They are now 21-of-80 (26.3%) from distance in the series while Boston is 32-of-77 (41.6%).  That discrepancy can’t continue.  Toronto shoots 37.4% on the season while Boston shoots 36.5%.

The Raptors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss.  Toronto is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Heat/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5

The Milwaukee Bucks lost Game 1 to the Orlando Magic last series and promptly bounced back with four straight double-digit victories.  While it won’t come as easily against the Miami Heat, I do expect the Bucks to bounce back with a win and cover in Game 2 tonight.

The Bucks shot just 14-of-26 (53.8%) from the free throw line in Game 1 while theHeat shot 25-of-27 (92.6%).  That was the difference.  Also, the Bucks only had one day to prepare for Miami, while the Heat had a whole week to prepare for Milwaukee after sweeping the Pacers. Look for Mike Budenholzer to make the proper adjustments leading into Game 2.

The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games off a SU win by more than 10 points.  Milwaukee is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss, including 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto ML -120

I cashed with the Celtics in Game 1, but I’m taking the Raptors to bounce back in Game 2.  I do believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, but it has seven games written all over it.

Toronto shot very poorly in Game 1.  They made just 36.9% from the field and 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 17-of-39 (43.6%) from distance. Look for those numbers to be a lot more in the Raptors’ favor tonight.

Toronto is 13-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games off an ATS loss.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder showed some resiliency fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie this series.  Now they will show it again after their worst performance of the series in Game 5 and come back with a much better effort in Game 6.

The Thunder shot just 31.5% as a team and 7-of-46 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 5.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Rockets aren’t a very good defensive team with their small ball lineup, so it was more of a case of the Thunder just missing good looks in Game 5 than Houston’s D.

Houston is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games off a win by 30 points or more.  The Rockets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Oklahoma City is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog.  The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +2

The Boston Celtics just swept the Philadelphia 76ers and are ready to try and take down the defending champs starting with Game 1 of this series Sunday.  Give the Raptors some credit for what they’ve done this season, but they clearly aren’t as good without Kawhi Leonard.

Boston went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against Toronto in the regular season.  That includes a 22-point win and a 16-point win as they were clearly the dominant team in the head-to-head matchup.  And I expect that to carry over into the playoffs.  The wrong team is favored in Game 1 here.

Boston is 9-1 ATS when playing with three or more days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing against a top level team that wins 70% or more of their games this season.  The Celtics are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs.  Take the Celtics Sunday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after erasing an 0-2 deficit to win Games 3 and 4 and tie this series back up.  Now they take control of it with another victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Thunder opened the series as 1-point favorites in Game 1, and are now 5.5-point underdogs in Game 5.  That’s a 6.5-point adjustment, and I don’t agree with it.  I believe the wrong team is favored once again in Game 5 tonight.

The Rockets have shot worse than 44% from the field in eight of their last 11 games overall.  Shots just aren’t coming as easily for the Rockets, and I think too much is being made of Russell Westbrook coming back for this game.  He isn’t going to be back to full strength and there will be some rust and chemistry issues.

The Thunder are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Denver +3

It’s now or never for the Denver Nuggets, who find themselves in a 1-3 hole to the Utah Jazz with their season on the line in Game 5 tonight.  I expect them to get the job done and extend this series to a 6th game.

The Jazz only won 129-127 in Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites despite shooting 57.5% from the field and making 19 more free throws than Denver.  Both of those things aren’t going to happen again, and thus the Nuggets should be able to win.

I was on the Nuggets in Game 4 and cashed, and I’m on them again for similar reasons.  They were 4.5-point favorites over the Jazz in Game 1, and now they are 3-point underdogs in Game 5.  That’s a 7.5-point adjustment and too much.

The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are catching too many points in Game 4 tonight as they try and square this series.  They upset the Lakers in Game 1, and the Lakers understandably came back with a big effort in Game 2.  

But the Blazers gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 3 and lost 108-116 as 8-point dogs.  They will play an even better game here with their season essentially on the line.

It’s only a matter of time before the Blazers shoot the ball better in this series.  They shot 39.2% in Game 1, 40% in Game 2 and 41.1% in Game 3.  The Lakers shot 50% in Game 3 and they still only lost by 8.  Only a slight improvement will have them covering this 7.5-point spread with ease.

The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Blazers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland has just one loss by more than 8 points since the restart, which is a span of 12 games.  Take the Blazers Monday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5

With their season essentially on the line, the Oklahoma City Thunder came through with a huge 119-107 (OT) victory over the Houston Rockets in Game 3.  They had to battle adversity and poor officiating down the stretch of regulation to get the win.

The way they won that game will give the Thunder a lot of confidence heading into Game 4 tonight to try and square this series.  And I expect it to pay dividends for them in the 4th quarter.

The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have shown that in their last two games, limiting the Rockets to just 41.8% shooting in Game 2 and 41.3% shooting in Game 3.  It’s a Rockets team that just hasn’t shot it very well since the restart because they have such poor shot selection.  They have been held to less than 44% in eight of their last 10 games overall.

Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as underdogs.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3.5

The Denver Nuggets were embarrassed in Games 2 and 3 and will come back with their biggest effort of the series in Game 4 to try and square it at 2-2.  

From a line value prospective alone this is the play with the Nuggets as 3.5-point dogs when you consider they were 4.5-point favorites in Game 1, an 8-point adjustment.

Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five ATS over the last three seasons. Utah is 4-15-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5

It’s now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They blew a 59-53 halftime lead in Game 2 and got killed in the 2nd half.  Look for them to respond in a big way today to take Game 3 and avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.

The Thunder haven’t shot the ball up to their potential in either game yet.  They shot just 44% in Game 1 and 44.3% in Game 2.  And it’s not like the Rockets are some defensive juggernaut with their small ball lineup, either.  Scoring only 108 and 98 points, respectively, in the first two games of this series is unacceptable.

Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Thunder are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as underdogs overall.  OKC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston, so it had covered five straight prior to the first two games of this series.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +5

It’s now or never for the Indiana Pacers.  They are down 0-2 to the Miami Heat while playing a couple of hard-fought games.  They just couldn’t get the job done in the 4th quarter in either of the two games, but had their chances.

Look for the Pacers to come back with their best performance of the series today to avoid falling in the dreaded 0-3 hole.  I think there’s great value with them here as 5-point underdogs after they were only 3.5-point dogs in Game 2.  Victor Oladipo is back healthy after missing most of Game 1 with an eye contusion, and he means everything to their success.

Indiana is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss.  Miami is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a SU win.  The Heat are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -5

The Los Angeles Clippers played what will prove to be their worst game of the series in Game 2.  They shot just 29.4% from 3-point range compared to 44.8% for Dallas and committed six more turnovers than the Mavericks.  For whatever reason, they just weren’t into it.

I have no doubt the Clippers will come back with the intensity they need to put the Mavericks away in Game 3.  They have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and their role players are also much better than that of Dallas.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Clippers win the next three games in this series.

Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-4 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 17-5 ATS following a loss this season.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Jazz TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -1.5

The Nuggets went from being 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 3.5-point favorites in Game 2.  Now oddsmakers have listed them as only 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, which is a 3-point adjustment from the Game 1 line.  I think the value is with the Nuggets in Game 3 as a result.

This adjustment is made from Utah playing a great Game 2 and shooting 51.7% in a 124-105 victory.  They aren’t going to shoot that well again.  It’s also adjusted for the expected return of Mike Conley, but he has been one of the most overrated players in the NBA this season as the Jazz have actually been just as good or better without him.

The Nuggets are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Nuggets Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3

The Oklahoma City Thunder went from being favorites in Game 1 to 3-point underdogs in Game 2.  This is too big of an adjustment just because the Rockets looked good in Game 1 in their 123-108 victory.

Look for the Thunder to play with more of a sense of urgency tonight.  And I have a hard time believing the Rockets are going to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, which was 48.3% from the field with 20 made 3-pointers.  The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

Oklahoma City is 21-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Thunder are 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Oklahoma City is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games as underdogs.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Clippers are as healthy as they’ve been all season with the returns of Harrell, Beverly and Shamet for Game 1 of this series.  They shook off their rust and came through with a 118-110 victory.  They’re only going to continue to gel more with each passing game, and they are clearly the best team in the West in my opinion.

The Dallas Mavericks rely too much on Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.  That’s because they lost key role players in Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein to season ending injuries.  

After a poor 1st half defensively giving up 69 points, the Clippers showed what they could do when they get after it defensively in the 2nd half.  They held the Mavericks to just 41 points after intermission, which was the key to their victory.  With stoppers like Kawhi Leonard, Beverly and Paul George, the Clippers can match up with Doncic and Porzingis as well as anyone.

The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by an average of 10 points pre game.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* Heat/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Miami -4.5

The Miami Heat are a real threat in the Eastern Conference.  And they are just getting healthy in time for the playoffs with Butler, Dragic, Adebayo, Iguodala and Crowder all listed as probable tonight.  Look for them to handle their business against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 tonight.

The Heat are 3-1 SU against the Pacers this season, including a 114-92 win in the bubble when they were healthy.  Their only loss came in their regular season finale when they had nothing to play for and rested everyone.

Give the Pacers credit for fighting through injuries of their own and still posting a 45-28 record this season.  But it’s much easier to do that in the regular season than it is in the playoffs, and the fact of the matter is that they just aren’t talented enough to compete at this level, especially without All-Star Domantas Sabonis.

Miami is 27-14 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  Miami is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  The Heat are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers are more healthy now for the start of the playoffs than they were for the eight-game sample.  They are expected to get back the guy that brings the infectious energy in Montrezl Harrell, and they could be getting back another guy in his same mold in Patrick Beverly.  Landry Shamet also could return.

Either way, I think the Clippers have enough to take care of the Mavericks with room to spare in Game 1 of this series tonight.  They won all three regular season meetings with the Mavericks, including two by 15 points each.  They won 126-111 as 3.5-point favorites in the bubble on August 6th.

The Mavericks are just a shell of their former selves with the season-ending injuries to Dwight Powell, Courtney Lee and Willie Cauley-Stein.  They don’t have near the depth that the Clippers do, and they rely too much on just two games in Doncic and Porzingis.  Kawhi Leonard can shut down Doncic if Doc Rivers decides to go that route.

The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* Grizzlies/Blazers Play-In No-Brainer on Memphis +6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers only need to win one game against Memphis to make the playoffs.  The Grizzlies need to win two games, so look for them to be playing with more of a sense of urgency in this Game 1 than the Blazers will be.

Portland clearly cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number either.  While the Blazers went 6-2 in the restart, all eight games were decided by 10 points or less, and they have only two wins by more than 5 points.  They just don’t play enough defense to put teams away, and they are a terrible rebounding team.

Memphis lost 135-140 in overtime to Portland during he restart.  But the Grizzlies won 111-104 in their previous meeting back in February.  And I expect this one to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there’s a lot of value with the Grizzlies +6.5 here.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -7

The Phoenix Suns need a win and either a loss by Memphis or Portland to make the play-in series for the 8th seed in the West.  They’ve made it this far, and they’re not about to let up now.

The Suns are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS since the restart, the only undefeated team in the bubble.  And they’re not only winning, they are dominating.  Four of those seven wins have come by double-digits.  They have won those seven games by an average of 11.3 points per game.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked into the 7th seed and looking ahead to their series with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round.  They won’t be too motivated to win this game, and they could rest their players with nicks and bruises.

The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Mavericks.  Phoenix is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1

The Miami Heat just got Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back from injury and promptly ended a two-game losing streak with an emphatic 114-92 win over Indiana as 4-point favorites Monday.  Now I look for them to take down the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday.

While the Heat are almost fully healthy, the same cannot be said for the Thunder.  They are without Dennis Schroder, and Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all questionable to play tonight.  Don’t be surprised if the Thunder play it safe here with the playoffs just around the corner, and playoff positioning not really a priority compared to their health.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

25* NBA Restart GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS since the restart.  They have been playing some great basketball and are closing in on making the play-in game in the West for the 8th and final seed.  This is a much more important game for them than it is the Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks are in 7th place in the West and one game back of the Jazz.  They are basically locked into this spot with two games to go.  It’s why they decided to sit Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis last game, and both of them are questionable to play again tonight.  The Mavericks have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now and would be wise to play it safe.

Given the situation of both teams, the Blazers should be much bigger than only 3.5-point favorites tonight.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place.  Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs.  This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining.

The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position.  And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West.

The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury.  Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury.  They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe.

The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Spurs Tuesday.