15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost each of their last two games on the road in heartbreaking fashion on the road to Iowa State (75-81) and West Virginia (86-91, OT). I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight.

Oklahoma (17-6) remains one of the most underrated teams in the country. It has taken care of business at home this year, going 10-2 while winning by 9.6 points per game. They have also beaten Texas and Baylor on the road, and Oklahoma State and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is in a world of hurt right now. Simply put, this team came into the season overrated. The Bears have lost six of their last seven games overall, including a deflating 52-69 home loss to Kansas last time out. Five of their seven Big 12 losses have come by double-digits, so they've rarely been competitive.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season. Baylor is 2-11 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings with Baylor. Take Oklahoma Saturday.

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes obviously want revenge from their 77-85 loss to the Wolverines roughly two weeks ago in Ann Arbor on January 22. They get them at home this time around, and despite their recent struggles here, the Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 11-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 23.2 points per game. Michigan is just 4-3 in true road games this season, and it lost 52-63 in its last road game at Indiana. The Wolverines are simply overvalued right now due to their fast start in the Big Ten.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings between Iowa and Michigan. Dating back further, the home team is a superb 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Iowa is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games. Iowa is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week. The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS off two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly been playing some of the best basketball in the league over the last couple of weeks to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt. They have done so without two of their best players in Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday.

Indeed, the Pelicans have won five of their last seven games overall with their lone losses coming at Minnesota and at home against San Antonio. They have beaten playoff contenders like Chicago and Atlanta during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued, which has shown with their 9-4 ATS mark in their last 13 games overall.

New Orleans is playing with double-revenging having lost both meetings with Minnesota this season, though both of those came on the road. The Timberwolves are 10-16 on the road this season. They will be without Nikola Pekovic (18.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) tonight, and they could be without Kevin Love (25.6 ppg, 13.2 rpg), who is questionable with a neck injury.

The Timberwolves are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +1.5

The New York Knicks are in need of a victory tonight after losing three straight to drop to 19-30 on the season. Fortunately, they play in the Eastern Conference so they are not too far out of the playoff hunt. I look for them to come together tonight and get back on track with a win over Denver, and so does their star.

"We gotta stick together as a team. No one person is going to do it," star forward Carmelo Anthony said. "Everybody has gotta play their part in us turning this thing around. Our main focus is to win as many games as we can right now to prepare ourselves to make a push for the postseason."

The Nuggets come in overvalued due to winning four of their last six games overall. Five of those six games came at home, and now they start a 4-game road trip. The Nuggets are just 10-12 on the road this season.

The Knicks will be out for revenge from a 95-97 road loss to Denver in their first meeting this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

Denver is 1-9 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Nuggets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 25-2 system backing New York. Take the Knicks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a nice-sized road underdog. Asking the Washington Wizards to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The reason the Cavaliers are showing such great value tonight is the fact that they have lost six straight while failing to cover six in a row in the process. Obviously, the betting public realizes that they have been struggling, which has forced oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Cleveland is going to play motivated basketball tonight to end this losing streak. The main reason it will be focused is because it has been the laughing stock of the media due to losing to the Los Angeles Lakers last time out, who were down to four players. The Lakers had to be charged a technical to allow Robert Sacre to return to the floor after picking up his sixth foul.

Washington just played a brutal stretch in which is faced five of the top teams in the West in Golden State, LA Clippers, OKC, Portland and San Antonio. It managed to go 3-2 against those five teams, which is impressive. However, it is coming off a double-overtime loss to San Antonio, and I look for it to suffer a hangover effect. There's no way the Wizards will be able to get up emotionally to face the Cavs after taking on the toughest part of their schedule.

This has been a very closely-contested series of late with each of the last four meetings decided by 7 points or less. Cleveland has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington, so this is clearly a team that it matches up well against. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won five of the past seven meetings outright.

Cleveland is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +8.5

Once again, the Chicago Bulls are being undervalued by oddsmakers. This is nothing new for this team over the past two seasons under my favorite head coach in the league, Tom Thibodeau. The guy just keeps winning no matter the circumstances.

Despite arguably their two best players in Derrick Rose to a season-ending injury, and Luol Deng via trade, the Bulls have managed to go 12-6 in their last 18 games overall. At 24-24 on the season, they certainly have a chance to earn the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference if they keep up this play.

Golden State has really been struggling of late, going 4-6 in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 2-5 record at home during this stretch with losses to the likes of Denver, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington and Charlotte. It has shot 38% or less from the floor in three of its last four games overall.

Things won't get any easier for the Warriors offensively tonight as they'll be up against Chicago's stingy defense. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Golden State certainly struggled to find the bottom of the net against Chicago last year. The Bulls swept the season series in blowout fashion, winning 103-87 at home and 113-95 on the road. They held the Warriors to an average of just 91 points per game in the two wins, and averaged 108 points per game themselves despite playing without Rose.

The Warriors are 1-8 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Bulls Thursday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +11

The Oregon Ducks (15-6) represent my strongest play for the entire 2013-14 season in the Pac-12 Thursday. They take on the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (21-1) on the road with a chance to get a signature win and greatly increase their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is undervalued right now due to losing six of its last eight games overall following a 13-0 start. Five of those six losses came by single-digits, including three by a combined 8 points. So, the Ducks have been in basically every game they have played with a chance to win in the end. This game will be no different.

Arizona comes in overvalued due to its 21-1 start. It just suffered its first loss of the season in a 58-60 setback at California last time out. When teams have long winning streaks like this snapped, more times than not there is a hangover effect in their next game. I really believe that the Wildcats will be upset tonight, but I'm just taking the points for some added insurance.

One key factor here is that Arizona lost one of its best players in its loss to California. Forward Brandon Ashley (ankle) has been lost for the season. He was the team's third leading scorer at 11.5 points per game, while also averaging 5.8 rebounds per game. He shot 52.2 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from 3-point range, and 75.7 percent from the free throw line, so this is obviously a huge loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (OREGON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Ducks are 17-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are much-improved this season under Matt Painter due to having four starters back. However, at 13-9 on the season, they really need to go on a run right now if they want to get into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Because of this, the Boilermakers will not be lacking any motivation. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they have lost four straight following a three-game winning streak in the Big Ten. That is expected considering three of the losses came on the road, while the other was at home against Big Ten power Wisconsin.

Finally, this is a classic revenge spot, which will only add to the motivation. Minnesota beat Purdue 82-79 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 5. Exactly a month later, I expect the Boilermakers to have their revenge at home this time around.

Everything went right for Minnesota in that game as it shot 52.2% from the field, 11-of-24 (45.8%) from 3-point range, and 23-of-27 (85.2%) from the line, yet it still only won by 3 points. The Gophers won't shoot that well again, and as a result, they won't be so fortunate this time around.

The Golden Gophers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Purdue is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Minnesota. Take Purdue Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Portland -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing tremendous value as a minimal road favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. Portland (34-14) is having a tremendous season and is one of the most improved teams in the league. New York (19-29) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.

Having lost five of their last eight games overall, the Blazers will come out hungry tonight. Each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, so they have played a brutal stretch of games. They finally get a break here against the lowly Knicks.

New York is 10 games below .500, and the fact of the matter is that it simply does not have the talent to compete this season. Carmelo Anthony is being asked to do too much. The Knicks have lost seven of their last 11 games overall with their only wins coming at home against the Bobcats, Lakers, Celtics and Cavs. They even lost to the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks last time out.

Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

When two of the worst teams in the league in the Boston Celtics (16-33) and Philadelphia 76ers (15-34) get together, you need to look for any kind of motivational factors you can find. I believe the Celtics will be the more motivated team in this one.

The reason is very simple. These teams just played a week ago with the 76ers winning 95-94 in Boston. You can bet that the Celtics will be motivated to avenge that defeat, while the 76ers won't show up with the same focus that they normally would having beaten this team recently.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series of late as the road team has won three of the last five meetings outright. The 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in all lined home games this season.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 90-47 (65.7%) ATS since 1996. Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 76% of more of their attempts this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia comes in playing its best basketball of the season, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over Oklahoma. I'll take advantage and back the Mountaineers.

WVU has won three of its last four games overall with its lone loss coming at Oklahoma State by a final of 75-81 as a 13.5-point underdog. It has gone on the road and beaten Baylor, while also topping Kansas State and Texas Tech at home during this stretch.

I believe Oklahoma is overvalued right now after a fast start to Big 12 play that included four straight wins before falling to Iowa State on Saturday. The Mountaineers will be the more motivated team here as they really need this win to get back into the NCAA Tournament discussion.

The Mountaineers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games with a total of 150 to 159 points. West Virginia is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 home games off a home win. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 80 points or more over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. This should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last year.

The Huskers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three of their last four games with victories over Ohio State, Minnesota and Indiana. In fact, their last three losses have all come by 6 points or less.

One of those defeats was a 70-71 home loss to Michigan. That places the Huskers in revenge mode tonight. Michigan is way overvalued due to its 8-1 start in Big Ten play. It simply cannot live up to the expectations it has created for itself in the eyes of the betting public, which has forced oddsmakers to inflate its lines.

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Nebraska is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. These three trends combine for a an 18-0 system backing the Huskers. It's also worth nothing that the Huskers have had three extra days of rest heading into this one. Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +8

The Chicago Bulls get the nod Tuesday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Phoenix Suns. I have been backing the Suns as much as anyone this year, but they are finally overvalued here, while the Bulls are showing some of their best value of the season.

Chicago is a very resilient team. That is evident by the fact that it has not lost three in a row since losing four straight from December 14-19. Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly 99-70 loss at Sacramento last night in which they shot 28.2 percent from the field, I have no doubt the Bulls will come out determined tonight.

Chicago has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. In fact, it has won each of its last four visits to Phoenix. This has clearly been a one-sided series over time, and while the Suns are improved this year, they won't be ready for the effort they are going to get from this motivated squad tonight.

Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on 0 days rest. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -3.5

Despite losing five of their last six games overall, the Wisconsin Badgers are still 17-5 on the season and one of the best teams in the country. I look for them to come out motivated and to take care of business against hapless Illinois (13-9) tonight.

Wisconsin has suffered four of its losses by single-digits, so it simply hasn't been getting it done in close games. The good news is that I do not expect this game to be close at all as the Badgers come out playing inspired basketball from start to finish.

Illinois has nothing to be excited about right now. It has lost seven straight games coming in with all seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes a 70-95 loss at Wisconsin to start the streak on January 8. This has been a one-sided series to say the least.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Illinois as four of those victories have come by double-digits. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +9

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most improved teams in the country. However, I believe they are overvalued right now as a 9-point favorite at TCU in this Big 12 showdown Tuesday night. They need to be on upset alert.

Texas is 17-4 this season after having won six straight Big 12 games. Off its biggest win of the season with an 81-69 home victory over Kansas, Texas finds itself in a massive letdown spot tonight. It's only human nature to come out flat after beating a team like Kansas.

Meanwhile, TCU is chomping at the bit to get its first taste of victory in the Big 12. It has come close in losses to West Virginia (69-74), Oklahoma (69-77) and Texas Tech (54-60) to show that it can be competitive. Remember, this team upset Kansas at home last year, and the Horned Frogs are fully capable of doing the same against the Longhorns tonight.

Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games coming in. The Longhorns are 15-27 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet TCU Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two big rivals who played each other in the playoffs last year, so they are also familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense every time.

When looking at the last five meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Pacers have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings, averaging a combined 175.8 points per game during this span. That's roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up just 90.3 points per game on 41.3% shooting on the season. The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 93.9 points per 100 possessions, which is by far the best mark in the NBA.

The Pacers are 16-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

After having lost five of their last six games overall, the Ohio State Buckeyes showed a ton of grit and determination in beating the Wisconsin Badgers on the road by a final of 59-58 Saturday. That win gives this team a ton of confidence and momentum going forward.

Ohio State is still 17-5 on the season, and I have no doubt it remains one of the best teams in the country. It will now be out for revenge from a 74-84 home loss to Iowa in their first meeting of the season back on January 12.

I have had a lot of success taking these road teams who lost at home to their opponent in the first meeting of the season. There's no question that the Buckeyes will be the more motivated team given the circumstances, and they are catching a decent amount of points to boot.

Ohio State is 19-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Buckeyes are 31-10 ATS in their last 41 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. As you can see, this team has been excellent in this situation over time as well. Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are expected to be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins (22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg) due to injury once again tonight. His value to this team is really starting to show considering the Kings are 0-7 in their last seven games without him.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They have managed to go 11-5 in their last 16 games overall despite a season-ending injury to Derrick Rose, and the trading of Luol Deng. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is showing that he may be the best in the league.

Another example of the Bulls' resiliency is their ability to bounce back from a loss. In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 straight up in their last seven games following a defeat, and have been tremendous under Thibodeau in this situation in his time here.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Bulls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Kings are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Nuggets UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets. I believe a big reason for that is the return of point guard Ty Lawson for Denver from a shoulder injury, but now the number has been inflated as a result.

Denver is still in a world of hurt in the injury department. It is without Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari, Andre Miller and JaVale McGee. This team has really cooled off offensively as a result, scoring an average of just 94.0 points per game in back-to-back home losses to Charlotte and Toronto.

When you look at the recent history of these teams, which included when Chris Paul was healthy and the Clippers were at their peak offensively, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

In fact, each of the last 15 meetings in this series have seen 215 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 15-0 totals system backing the under dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set of 216. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 193

The San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans are both in a world of hurt right now in the injury department. As a result, I expect points to be hard to come by tonight, and for the final combined score of this game to stay well UNDER the number.

San Antonio is expected to be without Danny Green (7.4 ppg), Manu Ginobli (12.1 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (11.6 ppg) tonight. It has been without these three for a couple games now, and the results have not been pretty. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs' last three games overall as they are averaging just 90.3 points/game in the process.

New Orleans is playing without two of its best players in starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall as they have combined with their last four opponents 192 or fewer points in each game, and an average of 178.3 combined points per game.

The Pelicans are 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34 home games off an upset win as a home underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pelicans last seven games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs last three games, and 4-0 in Pelicans last four games. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier +10

The Xavier Musketeers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Providence and Seton Hall to fall to 15-6 on the season. They are undervalued as a 10-point underdog to Villanova Monday as a result.

I've seen enough from this Xavier team to realize that it has the potential to go into Villanova and pull off the upset tonight, and at the very least to keep it close. In fact, five of its six losses this season have come by 9 points or less. It has beaten the likes of Cincinnati and Tennessee while playing some of the other top teams in the country very tough.

Villanova comes in overvalued due to having won three straight road games, but those three came against conference bottom feeders Temple, Georgetown and Marquette. The Wildcats needed overtime to beat Marquette, and only won by 5 at Georgetown. Remember, in their last home game, they lost to Creighton 68-96. That's the same Creighton team that only beat Xavier 95-89 at home.

Plays against any team (VILLANOVA) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Xavier is 7-0 ATS versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or better and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better this season. The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season. Bet Xavier Monday.

15* Magic/Celtics Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic just recently got back their best player in center Nikola Vucevic. He played in his second game after missing 15 of the team's previous 16 contests because of a concussion. He helped guide the Magic to a 13-102 win over Milwaukee last time out Friday.

Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is averaging 13.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game this season. The Magic are a much better team on both sides of the ball with him in the lineup.

Boston has been dealing with injury issues of its own. It has lost 16 of its last 18 games coming into this one. Jerryd Bayless remains out with a toe injury, while Avery Bradley is expected to play through an ankle injury. Gerald Wallace is questionable for personal reasons Sunday.

I really believe it's more a distraction for the home team when playing on Super Bowl Sunday. There's no question that these players have Super Bowl parties to attend after the game in Boston. They'll be looking forward to those instead of focusing on basketball. I look for this game to be all business for the Magic, who don't have to worry about Super Bowl plans on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a home win, in February games are 53-21 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Boston is 1-10 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +14.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Louisville on the road by a final of 69-66 as a 9-point underdog Thursday. Now, they have a game against UConn on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

It's only human nature for the Bearcats to show up lacking focus today off such a big win and with a great opponent on deck. I also believe this team is overvalued due to their current 13-game winning streak. Four of their last five wins have come by 11 points or less.

One of those was a 61-54 win at South Florida on January 18. So, the Bulls will be out for revenge in this game. That's another reason that the Bearcats will find it hard being motivated enough to win this game by 15-plus having already beaten the Bulls. I fully expect this one to go down to the wire.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati is 19-37 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 7-30 ATS in its last 37 Sunday games. South Florida is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series, including 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Cincinnati. Take South Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 182

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies today. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as both teams struggle offensively.

Since January 10, the Grizzlies are allowing an NBA-best 88.8 points per game, which is 6.0 ppg less than second-place Chicago. They are also yielding a league-best 41.7 field-goal percentage over this span. They haven't allow an opponent to score more than 90 during their current five-game winning streak.

That doesn't bode well for the Bucks (8-38), who are scoring an NBA-low 91.9 points per game this season. The good news for the Bucks is that the Grizzlies haven't reached 100 points in any of their last nine games. Plus, leading scorer Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 apg) is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury. This offense will really be out of sync if Conley cannot go.

These teams have played in defensive battles in each of their last two meetings. Memphis won 90-80 at home in their final meeting of 2012-13 for 170 combined points. Memphis also won their first meeting of 2013-14 with an 82-77 road victory on January 15 for 159 combined points. I don't expect this game to come close to 180 combined points, either.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of less than 25% over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. Tom Thibodeau keeps producing a winner no matter who is on the floor. It's like they didn't even lose their best player in Derrick Rose, or trade away one of their best players in Luol Deng.

Thibodeau could win coach of the year every year with what he's doing with this team. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 games overall, which includes a 98-86 road victory at San Antonio last time out on Wednesday. That means they've had two days' rest heading into this one.

New Orleans has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. It remains without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). It simply has not been able to make up for these two huge losses, and now leading scorer Anthony Davis (20.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) is banged up with a finger injury.

Chicago wants revenge from a 128-131 overtime loss at home to the Pelicans in their first meeting of the season. That was a rare win for the Pelicans in this series as the Bulls have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series.

The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans dating back to 2009. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 8th game in 12 days, and their 11th game in 17 days. They simply don't have anything left in the tank, and that will show tonight against the Wizards.

Washington will be out for revenge from a 105-106 road loss at Oklahoma City on November 10 as an 8.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. The thing about the Wizards is that they have a superstar stopper in Trevor Ariza, who can guard guys like Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony as well as just about anyone in the league.

The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season of late, winning six of their last 10 games overall. That includes victories over Miami, Chicago (twice), Phoenix and Golden State, which equates to five wins over playoff contenders during this stretch. They have bounced back to win from each of their last four losses as well.

Washington is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 53-34 ATS in their last 87 games as an underdog. Washington is 13-3 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Georgetown Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Georgetown +7.5

The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued after their big overtime win at Iowa on Tuesday. They were able to win that game with a depleted roster, which was a huge win for the program. It's only human nature for them to come back and suffer a letdown as they step out of conference to face Georgetown Saturday.

Michigan State is still expected to be without its two best post players in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Some teams can play without their best players for a couple games, but over time it catches up to them.

I look for the Hoyas to be very competitive today against the short-handed Spartans and to likely pull off the upset. This Georgetown team is highly motivated for a win after losing five straight coming in, including a 5-point loss to Villanova last time out. The Hoyas will have a big home-court advantage as this game will be played in Madison Square Garden.

Tom Izzo is 4-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog as the coach of Michigan State. This trend just goes to show how the Spartans have had letdowns following a big road game under Izzo. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in February games over the past two seasons. The Hoyas are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Georgetown Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +10.5

The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Tech Red Raiders are battling for the basement of the Big 12 this season. The Frogs have yet to win a Big 12 game, while the Raiders only have two victories within the conference.

One of those wins for Texas Tech came against TCU in a 60-49 road victory on January 18. That places the Horned Frogs in revenge mode, and also extra motivated for their first win of the season. This will be their best chance to get one, and I look for them to put up a great fight today.

All three meetings between these teams have been decided by 11 points or less over the last two seasons. The Horned Frogs have lost all three of those games, so that adds even more fuel to the fire for them. There's no question this team is improved from a year ago.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TCU) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 77-34 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Texas Tech is 6-21 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take TCU Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are showing tremendous value as only a 3-point home favorite over Kansas State this afternoon. I'll take advantage and back them in a game I look for them to run away with.

Kansas State is a tremendous home team with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. However, the Wildcats have really struggled on the road throughout the years, and that has not changed this year. They are 1-3 in true road games this season.

West Virginia has won two of its last three games and is a respectable 4-4 in Big 12 play this season. What's most amazing about that is the fact that it has won three Big 12 road games already. This team will be out for revenge from an ugly loss at Kansas State on January 18, so the motivation will be on the Mountaineers' side.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most improved teams in the league this season. At 24-21, they are a legitimate threat to get the No. 3 seed in the East. But playing in Canada, this team consistently has gone under the radar.

The Raptors should not be an underdog against the depleted Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is expected to be without Ty Lawson (shoulder) and Nate Robinson (knee). It was already without Andre Miller, so essentially it is missing its top three points guards.

Those injuries contributed to an ugly 98-101 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out. Lawson is irreplaceable, averaging 17.9 points and 8.9 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, Toronto is expected to get back leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (21.8 ppg) tonight after a two-game absence.

The Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Toronto is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days' rest. The Raptors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. These last three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally playing up to their potential after going 0-11 in their first 11 games that were decided by 4 points or less. This is a dangerous team and one that nobody wants to play come playoff time if they get in.

Minnesota has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming at Portland. That includes road victories over both Golden State and Chicago during this stretch. The Timberwolves finally won a close game by a single point at Golden State (121-120), and I believe that result will give them confidence in close games going forward.

Memphis is also playing its best basketball of the season, but it has no business being a road favorite here. Point differential is one of the best indicators of how good a team is. The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on the season, while the Grizzlies are only outscoring foes by 0.4 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - off a home win, in January games are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on one days' rest. Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Nets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak. They should not be favored at Brooklyn, which is also playing its best basketball of the season.

The Nets have been playing well ever since a 95-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point underdog on January 2. They have gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS dating back to that huge win, and I'll gladly back them as a home dog as they come into this game on three days' rest.

The Thunder are in a huge letdown spot. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 112-95 victory at defending champion Miami. It's only human nature for them to let down after such a massive victory on National TV.

Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 107-56 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. Take the Nets Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are a very hungry team right now. They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five of those losses coming to playoff contenders by 8 points or less. They are coming off an ugly 85-88 home loss to the Wizards.

The Clippers are overvalued and overconfident right now after winning four straight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. This team has been beating up on mostly Eastern Conference bottom feeders during this stretch as eight of the 10 victories came against the East. The other two were at home against the Lakers and Mavs.

My biggest reason for backing the Warriors tonight is that they come in rested with one day off between games, while the Clippers come in very tired. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is the toughest situation in the NBA.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Golden State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Purdue/Michigan ESPN No-Brainer on Purdue +12

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now. They have opened a perfect 7-0 in Big Ten play due to winning all of their close games. Five of those seven wins came by 8 points or less. Off a massive win at Michigan State last time out, this team is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country. It has opened 13-7 this season, which includes impressive road wins over West Virginia and Illinois. Both of its Big Ten road losses this year came by exactly 3 points to Minnesota and Northwestern, so this team has proven it can play well away from home.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PURDUE) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Matt Painter is 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of Purdue. Painter is 25-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Purdue. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The Oregon Ducks are way undervalued right now due to having lost five of their last six games overall. After losing five straight with four of those losses coming by single-digits, they bounced back in a big way with a 71-44 win at Washington State last time out.

I look for the Ducks to build off of that win, and to continue playing motivated basketball after such a poor stretch. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they'll prove that against UCLA tonight.

UCLA has only played three true road games, going 1-2 with losses to Missouri and Utah. It's only win came against a depleted Colorado team that was missing its best player. The Bruins have proven nothing on the road this year, therefore they are getting too much respect as only a 2-point dog in this one.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA. The Ducks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Oregon is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games following a blowout win by 20 points or more. UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80%. Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most improved teams in the land this season. That should come as no surprise considering they returned all five starters from last season. This team is way undervalued having covered five straight and six of seven in Big Ten play this season.

I have really been impressed with how well Nebraska has played at home this year. In fact, it is 9-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in all home games with its only loss coming to Michigan (70-71) by a single point. The Wolverines are currently in first place in the Big Ten with a 7-0 mark. The Huskers have beaten the likes of Ohio State and Minnesota at home.

Indiana is reloading this season with only one starter back from last year. It is off to a mediocre 13-7 start, losing most of its big games. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 in true road games this season with their lone win coming at Penn State (79-76) by a mere 3 points.

Nebraska is 37-15 ATS in its last 52 home games with a line of +3 to -3. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls. The Huskers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +13.5

The Florida Gators are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. Certainly, the Gators deserve some respect due to their 11-game winning streak, but asking them to win by 14-plus points on the road at Mississippi State to beat us is asking too much.

Only three of Florida's 11 wins during this run have been in true road games, and all three went down to the wire. It beat Arkansas (84-82), Auburn (68-61) and Alabama (68-62), which are all three teams that have similar talent to the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State (13-6) is certainly an improved team this year with all five starters back. I really like what I've seen from this team at home. The Bulldogs are 11-1 at home this season, which includes wins over Ole Miss (76-72), Texas A&M (81-72) and Auburn (82-74) in SEC play.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (FLORIDA) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Florida. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190

For many of the same reasons I am backing the Bulls in this game, I am also taking the UNDER. San Antonio is without four of its best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. Chicago is obviously without Derrick Rose. Points are going to be hard to come by.

However, the biggest reason to back the UNDER in this game is the fact that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Indeed, Chicago ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 98.1 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.8 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Bulls and Spurs as it is, and that trend should continue given the injuries. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Better yet, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Spurs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago +8

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being this heavily favored over the Chicago Bulls with the state they are currently in right now. They are expected to be without three of their best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green tonight. Not to mention, Tiago Splitter remains out.

The Spurs have struggled of late due to these injuries. In fact, they have lost four of their last six games overall. This has been a popular team to back off a loss over recent years, but the fact of the matter is that this isn't the same team. The Spurs are depleted, and as a result, this is just an average NBA team right now.

Tom Thibodeau is my favorite head coach in the league. What he has been able to do with Chicago through the injuries to Derrick Rose is nothing short of remarkable. The Bulls have managed to go 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. A big reason for their success is the addition of point guard D.J. Augustine, who has resurrected his career in Chicago. He is averaging 13.6 points and 6.0 assists for the Bulls.

Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. San Antonio is on a second of a back-to-back here after losing in Houston last night, making this situation even tougher with a depleted roster. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 70-77 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 13. They also lost in overtime twice to the Jayhawks last season, so you can bet that payback is on the mind of every single player for Iowa State.

Amazingly, the Cyclones only lost by 7 to the Jayhawks despite playing the worst that they possibly could. They shot just 31.4% from the field compared to 49.2% for the Jayhawks. They went cold from 3-point range, connecting on just 4-of-25 (16.0%) attempts. They were also outrebounded 36-53.

I look for the Cyclones to be much sharper from the field, especially from beyond the arc, which is their specialty. I also look for them to be much more aggressive on the glass in this one. Plus, DeAndre Kane was about 60 percent healthy as he was playing on a hobbled ankle.

The Wooden Award candidate is back and healthy and will be a big reason as to why ISU gives Kansas a run for its money. Just last year, the Cyclones took the Jayhawks to overtime in Lawrence as an 11.5-point underdog only after a banked 3-pointer by Kansas at the buzzer.

Iowa State is a perfect 9-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 80.8 to 63.3 in this spot, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. This game will go right down to the wire with the Cyclones having a great chance to pull off the upset. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +9

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013-14. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik returned four starters from last year, and the result has been a 14-6 start and a legitimate shot to get into the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

While the Demon Deacons have not played well on the road this year, they simply have been flawless at home. In fact, Wake Forest is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.0 points per game. That includes wins over the likes of Richmond, St. Bonaventure, UNC, NC State and Notre Dame.

For starters, Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 19-0 start. It has been a covering machine to boot, going 11-4 ATS in all lined games. The betting public has caught on to the Orange, which has forced oddsmakers to set an inflated line tonight.

This is a massive letdown spot for Syracuse with its biggest game of the season on deck against Duke this Saturday. The Orange won't be able to help themselves from looking ahead to that game. As a result, they won't have the kind of focus to beat Wake Forest by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after allowing 65 points or less five straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Wake Forest is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Miami -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued due to their current 8-game winning streak that has simply seen Kevin Durant go off. Well, that streak is about to end and Durant is about to cool off as he'll be matched up against the best defender in the NBA in Lebron James.

You can bet that King James has heard about what Durant has been doing through the media. These two are 1-2 for the MVP award almost every single year. James is going to want to put Durant in his place tonight, and that extra motivation will help lead to a blowout home victory for the Heat.

There's no question that James and the Heat have gotten the best of Durant and the Thunder in recent years. In fact, Miami is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oklahoma City overall. All seven of those wins have come by 4 points or more as well.

Oklahoma City is a tired team right now as this will be its 6th game in 9 days. Miami is well-rested, having two days off prior to this game to rest up and prepare for the Thunder. The Heat are 19-3 at home this season, so they have protected their home court very well. Take Miami Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this Western Conference rivalry between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Since the return of 2012-13 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have gotten back to their usual lockdown defense. They have allowed an average of 86.2 points on 40.3 percent shooting in six contest since Gasol returned from an injured left knee. To no surprise, the UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games overall.

Memphis also earned its seventh win in eight games Saturday by finishing off a home-and-home sweep of Houston. It held the high-powered Rockets to an average of 84.0 points on 38.8 percent shooting in back-to-back games. That's 21 points below their season average.

Several played for Portland have struggled against Memphis. The Grizzlies gave up an average of 86.0 points on 40.8 percent shooting in four games against Portland in 2012-13, winning the last three.

Nicolas Batum averaged 8.3 points on 30.8 percent shooting in three of those meetings, and Wesley Matthews averaged 10.3 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the three consecutive defeats. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 17.7 points on 36.2 percent shooting in three games. His 15.4 lifetime scoring average versus the Grizzlies is his worst against any opponent.

Each of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen 191 or fewer combined points. This makes for an 8-1 (89%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 197.5. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Portland. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. John's +13.5

The St. John's Red Storm got off to a horrible start this season. It was certainly a surprise considering this team returned all five starters from last year and was supposed to be one of the most improved in the country. However, that slow start has created a ton of value for the Red Storm lately, especially here tonight.

St. John's has been finally playing up to its potential of late. It has won three straight coming in, including its most impressive performance of the season last time out. The Red Storm went on the road and beat Butler 69-52 despite being a 3.5-point underdog in that contest. I believe that performance is a sign of things to come for this team.

Creighton is way overvalued right now due to being nationally ranked. There's no question that this is a quality team, but they are nowhere near as good as the beat down they put on Villanova a week ago, which is the reason they are overvalued here. The Bluejays made everything they looked at in that game from 3-point range. Asking them to win by 14 to beat us against an underrated St. John's team is simply asking too much.

St. John's is 33-18 ATS in its last 51 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds last game. Creighton is 5-17 ATS after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the past three seasons. This trend just goes to show how overvalued the Bluejays have been when getting on a run like the current one they are on. Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's amazing how close this team is to being 20-0 right now. All four of its losses have come on the road to ranked opponents in Villanova (83-88), Iowa State (82-85), Wisconsin (71-75) and Michigan (67-75) by a combined 20 points.

Iowa has yet to lose at home this season, going a perfect 11-0 while outscoring opponents 90.3 to 62.1, or by an average of 28.2 points per game. It's safe to say that Carver Hawkeye Arena has made a revival, and it will be rowdy inside when the Michigan State Spartans make a visit. These fans and the players want revenge from two 3-point losses to Michigan State last year.

The Spartans are in a world of hurt right now. They are likely to be without their top two big men tonight. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is out with a broken wrist, while Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is doubtful with a foot injury. Iowa is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents 44-34 on the season, so the potential losses of Dawson and Payne will hurt the Spartans against the Hawkeyes more than they would against most other teams.

Iowa is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Iowa is 26-8 ATS in its last 34 games following a win. The Hawkeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 home games. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ESPN Rivalry Play on Oklahoma +5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Once again, they are getting disrespected as a home underdog to rival Oklahoma State Monday. While I don't believe they'll need the points, I'll back the Sooners and the points for some insurance.

Oklahoma (16-4) has proven it is one of the better teams in the land in conference play. It has opened 5-2 in the Big 12, which includes road wins at Baylor and Texas, as well as a home win over Iowa State. Its two losses have come by 7 points or less to both Kansas and Kansas State (on the road).

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the land due to having Marcus Smart, who really hasn't been as good as he was expected to be. The Cowboys have opened 4-2 in conference play, and they've been atrocious on the road. They are 1-2 in conference road games, losing to Kansas State and Kansas, while beating lowly West Virginia (73-72) by a single point.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this rivalry. In fact, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series. Better yet, the Sooners are 9-0 in Norman against the Cowboys since a 65-52 loss back in 2004. As you can see, the wrong team is favored in this one. Roll with Oklahoma Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets will take part in a defensive battle tonight. I look for the final combined score to be similar to the 176 points they put up on a 96-80 Toronto victory on January 11. This will be their 3rd meeting of the season, and familiarity favors defense.

The key to Brooklyn's success recently has been to slow down the pace and play better defense. The Nets are averaging about five possessions fewer per game in January than they were prior to that. Their offensive and defensive efficiency has gone up as a result.

Toronto has been playing at a slow pace all season. It ranks 23rd in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Brookiyn is 27th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. The Raptors rank 6th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.8 points per 100 possessions.

One big factor that has been backing the UNDER in this game is that Toronto is expected to be without leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He suffered a foot sprain against the Clippers on Saturday. DeRozan is in the midst of the best season of his career, averaging 21.8 points per game.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight road games overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -5

The Phoenix Suns continue to be the most underrated team in the NBA. They have won three of their last four, which includes wins over Denver and Indiana, to get to 25-18 on the season and right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.

The Suns are a league-best 28-14-1 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money. Sure, this is a second of a back-to-back situation, but this is the deepest team in the league, so that's not a problem. Also, they come in with momentum after holding the Cavaliers to 29 points in the second half of a 99-90 comeback road victory Sunday.

I'll gladly fade the Philadelphia 76ers (14-30), who have given up 100 points or more in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. They are giving up a league-worst 109.5 points per game this season. Their offense has been struggling to boot, averaging just 94.4 points on 42.4 percent shooting during a 2-9 stretch.

Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 99 or more points per game this season. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this year. Philly is 1-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game this season. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system going against Philadelphia. Take the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -4.5

The Golden State Warriors certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They have lost four of their last five games coming in with all four losses coming by eight points or less, and all four against some of the best teams in the league.

The Warriors are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for Portland, which will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. The edge in rest, preparation and motivation clearly favors Golden State.

That's also the case when you consider that the Warriors will want revenge from their 101-113 home loss to the Blazers in their first meeting of the season on November 23. The Blazers have lost their last two road games at Houston (113-126) and at Oklahoma City (97-105).

Portland is 1-10 ATS in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 110 or more points in two straight games.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Golden State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Blazers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Golden State. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah +15

The Utah Utes get the call Saturday as a massive road underdog to the Arizona Wildcats. Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Wildcats are clearly overvalued right now, which means it's time to fade them.

While Arizona (19-0) is considered the best team in the land, I have no doubt that Utah (14-5) is one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. In fact, this team is very close to being undefeated this season. All five of its losses have come by 4 points or less with road losses to Boise State (67-69), Washington (57-59), Washington State (46-49) and Arizona State (75-79), as well as a home loss to Oregon (68-70).

Utah played Arizona extremely tough last season. It lost by a final of 57-60 as a 19-point road underdog on January 5. It came back at home and lost 64-68 as a 10-point underdog on February 17. There's no question the Utes want revenge and would love nothing more than to hand the Wildcats their first lost of the season. At the very least, I have no doubt they'll stay within 15 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UTAH) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Utah is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons. The Utes are 13-0 ATS versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse from the field over the last two years. The Utes are 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall. Bet Utah Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -5.5

The Oregon Ducks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday as they travel to face lowly Washington State. I look for that motivation and intensity to lead to a blowout road victory against the Cougars, who are just 8-11 on the season.

Oregon opened 13-0 and was nationally ranked. However, it has lost five straight games since with four of those coming by single-digits. It simply hasn't been getting the breaks, and it has played a brutal schedule to boot.

This is actually a break in the scheduled for the Ducks. Washington State is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Pac-12 play, getting outscored by an average of 16.5 points per game. The Cougars are clearly the worst team in the conference, and that will show again tonight.

Ken Bone is 0-9 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 or more free throws per game in all games he has coached. Take this 100% system all-time straight to the bank tonight. Take Oregon Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in a rematch from last night's 88-87 road victory by the Grizzlies, making this a home-and-home situation.

That 175-point total should come as no surprise considering these teams have played in defensive battles dating back to last season. In fact, the last four meetings have seen 175, 192, 179 and 160 combined points. That's an average of 176.5 combined points/game, which is nearly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. Not only did these teams just face each other last night, but this will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Rockets and Grizzlies. This familiarity certainly favors the defenses considering they know what the opposing offenses like to do.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games following a win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama -1.5

It's now or never for the Alabama Crimson Tide, who cannot afford many more losses if they want to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. Playing with that motivation in mind, I'll back them as a small home favorite over the LSU Tigers today.

Alabama is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record. It just simply has not gotten the breaks in close games as nine of its 10 losses have come by 10 points or less, including close setbacks against some of the best teams in the country in Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and Florida (62-68).

My biggest reason for backing 'Bama is the importance of home-court advantage in this series. Alabama is a sensational 14-2 SU in its last 16 home meetings with LSU.

Plays on a favorite (ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS when playing with one or less days' rest over the last three seasons. Take Alabama Saturday.

15* Michigan/MSU ESPN Rivalry Play on Michigan +5

The Michigan State Spartans have no business being favored Saturday. They are going to be without their two best post players, and as a result, they are going to get owned inside and likely lose outright. I'm only taking the five points for some insurance.

Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has missed the past four games with a foot injury and is doubtful to play Saturday. Branden Dawson (10.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg) suffered a broken hand during a recent film session and will miss the next four-to-five weeks as a result.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing better basketball than the Wolverines right now. They have won eight straight games going in, going 6-1-1 ATS in the process. That includes road wins over Minnesota (63-60) and Wisconsin (77-70), as well as a home win over Iowa (75-67). Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +8

The Seton Hall Pirates have no business being this heavily favored over the DePaul Blue Demons Saturday in what I believe is a very evenly-matched game. I'll take the points in this one without hesitation as a result.

One of my biggest reasons for wanting to fade Seton Hall here is that it is in a very tough spot. Indeed, it is coming off a painful 76-77 loss at St. John's on Thursday. It came way back from 17 points down in the second half to have a chance to win in the end.

So, the Pirates used a ton of energy to come back, and now they only get one day to rest and prepare for DePaul. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons come in fresh and ready to go having last played on Monday, January 20 in a 10-point loss to Xavier. That edge in rest and preparation will be a big key to a Demon Deacons' cover today.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Saturday home games. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games following a game with five or less offensive rebounds. Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off a close road loss by 3 points or less. Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +9.5

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. I'll gladly take my chances with the Gators not being able to beat a very underrated Tennessee team by double-digits in this one.

The reason Florida is overvalued is due to winning 10 straight games heading into this one. It has shown signs of being overvalued in its last two games, failing to cover in a 7-point win over Auburn and a 6-point win over Alabama. This one will go right down to the wire as well.

While Tennessee is a mediocre 12-6 this season, a closer look shows how close this team is to being a lot better than that. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 9 points or less this season. That three road losses to Xavier (63-67), Wichita State (61-70) and Kentucky (66-74), which are three of the best teams in the country. Those three efforts give the Vols the believe that they can play with anyone on the road.

Tennessee simply has Florida's number. In fact, the Vols are a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gators. They won 64-58 as an 8-point home underdog, 75-70 as a 12.5-point road dog, and 67-56 as a 7.5-point home dog in their last three meetings, respectively.

The Vols are 10-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three seasons. Tennessee is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. Florida is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following seven or more consecutive wins. Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be out for revenge from their 72-73 home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys back on January 11 just two weeks ago. They will give the Cowboys a run for their money today, and they should not be catching 14 points.

Oklahoma State is in a very tough spot here. It is coming off a heartbreaking 78-80 loss at Kansas last time out, and it has a huge game on deck against Oklahoma Monday. That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys, who will have a hard time getting motivated enough to beat WVU by 15-plus points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

West Virginia is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring 80 or more points in its previous game. Oklahoma State is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Cowboys are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +9.5

The Northwestern Wildcats will be out for revenge today from their ugly 67-93 loss at Iowa in their first meeting of the season on January 9. With the way this team has been playing of late, I like their chances to stay within double-digits of the Hawkeyes and possibly pull off the upset in the rematch.

Indeed, Northwestern is 3-1 in its last four games overall with home wins against Illinois (49-43) and Purdue (63-60), as well as a very impressive road win at Indiana (54-47) as a 13-point underdog. It was a dog in all four of those contests.

Iowa is in a tough spot here. Not only will it find it hard to be motivated enough to beat Northwestern by double-digits after already topping the Wildcats by 26 points, it is also coming off a tough loss at Michigan, and it has an even bigger game with Michigan State on deck Tuesday.

The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where both teams scored 70 points or less over the last three seasons. They are winning 67.7 to 64.0 in this spot. They are clearly playing tremendous defense coming in. Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Clippers/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. This team has been counted out all season since the loss of Derrick Rose, and all they've been doing is proving their doubters wrong.

Once again, the Bulls are being overlooked tonight by the books, and we'll take advantage. They have won nine of their last 11 games overall while going 8-3 ATS in the process. This team simply has no quit in them even with the tough circumstances.

The Clippers have really started to show signs of missing Chris Paul of late. They have lost two of their last three games overall, including a 91-95 setback at Charlotte last time out. Making matters worse is that backup PG Darren Collison is nursing a toe injury.

Chicago is 37-16 ATS in its last 53 Friday games. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle and for neither team to top 105 points in this one.

The reason this total has been inflated is because Atlanta has gone over the number in four straight coming in. That stretch followed six straight unders, and the biggest reason for it is the fact that they have been playing some terrible defensive teams.

San Antonio is no slouch defensively. In fact, it ranks 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions. After losing two of their last three and giving up 109 and 111 points in the losses, you can bet that Greg Popovich will be stressing defense coming into this one.

Looking at recent history in this series, it's easy to see why there's a ton of value with the UNDER. Each of the last six meetings have seen 202 or less combined points. Not counting overtime, each of the last 22 meetings have seen 210 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 21-0-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They came up just short against the defending champion Miami Heat Thursday, and there's no way they'll recover emotionally in time to give the effort it take to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

Orlando is going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing 12 of its last 13 games overall. It has been playing much better of late, covering three of its last five against the spread with two 3-point losses and a win over the Celtics.

The Lakers are an extremely tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. After covering each of their last six games ATS, they are simply way overvalued in this contest.

The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Los Angeles is just 8-16 on the road this year. Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The books have simply set the bar too high in this game tonight between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. For starters, the intensity in National TV games usually goes up a notch, and that favors the defenses more than anything.

There's no question that both teams will come in intense after losing their last two games each. The focus for both head coaches will be defense after the Nuggets gave up an average of 117.0 points/game in their two losses, while the Blazers allowed 115.5 points/game in their two defeats.

One surefire way to tell that this total has been inflated is to simply look at the first meeting of the season between these teams on November 1. Oddsmakers set that total at 198, which is nearly 24 points lower than tonight's posted total of 221.5. Portland beat Denver 113-98 for 211 combined points, and I believe a similar combined final is in store tonight.

Denver is 18-6 to the UNDER in its last 24 road games versus bad pressure defensive teams who force 12 or less turnovers per game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games playing on three or more days or rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nuggets last seven Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -3

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight. I'll take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout by game's end.

Penn State is one of the most improved teams in the country this season due to the return of leading scorer Tim Frazier, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury. However, the Nittany Lions have struggled in Big Ten play, opening 0-6 with three losses by 3 points or less. That leaves them hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference, and they get it tonight.

This is the perfect spot to fade Nebraska, which is coming off its biggest win of the season. After opening 0-4 in Big Ten play, the Huskers were able to upset Ohio State at home on Monday. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off such a big win. Plus, the Huskers only come in on two days' rest, while the Nittany Lions come in on four days' rest having last played on Saturday.

Nebraska is 0-8 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival over the last three seasons. It is coming back to lost 57.0 to 77.9 in this spot, or by an average of 20.9 points per game. Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -4

The St. John's Red Storm are under the radar right now due to a poor start in Big East play. With all five starters back from last season, this team has certainly underachieved up to this point. However, I think this is going to be a dangerous squad going forward because of it.

St. John's has opened 0-5 in Big East play and is hungry for its first taste of victory within the conference. Three of those losses have come by 7 points or less, including two by a combined 3 points. There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should be a much heavier home favorite tonight.

Seton Hall is just a mediocre team that is getting too much respect from he books tonight. It was blown out at home by both Creighton (66-79) and Villanova (67-83). It also lost at home to St. Peters (80-83) in mid-December. However, it is coming off a big win at Georgetown last time out, which sets it up for a letdown spot here against a Red Storm team that simply wants it more.

Kevin Willard is 3-12 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three games against the spread as the coach of Seton Hall. Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is a sensational 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take St. John's Thursday.

15* Pacers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +6.5

The Phoenix Suns remain the most underrated team in the league this season. We are basically at the midpoint of the season, and this team is still 23-17 straight up and 26-13-1 ATS and right in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked Western Conference.

Once again, the Suns are getting overlooked as a 6-point home underdog to the Indiana Pacers when they really shouldn't be a dog in this game at all. Indiana is coming off a big win at Golden State Monday, setting it up for a letdown spot here.

Phoenix has gone 14-6 at home this season to really protect its home floor. Indiana has proven to be beatable on the road at 12-6 on the year. The Suns have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with the Pacers.

Plays against road teams (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with the Suns Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -2

Off back-to-back losses, which just so happened to be their only two losses on the season, the Wisconsin Badgers (16-2) will be out for blood tonight. I'll gladly back this motivated team against the overmatched Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.

While Wisconsin's two losses came by a combined nine points, Minnesota has really been overmatched in a couple of Big Ten games against the top teams in the league. It lost to Michigan State 75-87, while also falling to Iowa 73-94 last time out. It stands little chance tonight, too.

Wisconsin has won four of its last five meetings with Minnesota with its only loss coming in overtime. The Gophers have played a much softer schedule than the Badgers to this point, and I don't believe they are fully ready for the effort they're going to get from this hungry Wisconsin team.

The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Golden Gophers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten foes. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Take Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +7.5

This is a classic revenge game for the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost at home to West Virginia by a final of 86-89 on January 6. Two weeks later, the Red Raiders will be out for payback tonight.

Texas Tech has been playing great since that defeat. After falling at Texas 64-67 as a 10-point underdog, it came back and beat Baylor at home 82-72 as a 5-point dog, while also topping TCU on the road 60-49 as a 2-point favorite.

West Virginia has been overrated all season, and it continues to be tonight. This team simply isn't that good, and that has shown in the last three games. It fell at home to Oklahoma State (72-73) and Texas (69-80) before getting throttled on the road at Kansas State (56-78).

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less. The Mountaineers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. WVU is 7-22-1 ATS in its last 30 home games. The Mountaineers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks OVER 204

The Philadelphia 76ers have gone under the total in five straight games heading into this showdown with New York. As a result, the books have been forced to set the bar too low in what I believe will be an absolute shootout tonight.

Philadelphia is combining with its opponents to average 211.1 points per game this season, which is 7.1 points more than tonight's posted total. The 76ers play at the fastest pace in the league with 102.4 possessions per game.

Neither team has been good defensively this season. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions, and 109.9 points per game on the year. New York ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, yielding 105.9 points per 100 possessions.

The 76ers are 38-19 to the OVER in their last 57 road games with a total set between 200 and 204.5 points. The OVER is 9-3 in 76ers last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 games following a loss. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Dallas and Toronto. These teams played in a 109-108 overtime thriller in their first meeting of the season, and it's going to take overtime again to push this total over the number.

After giving up 94 or fewer points in six straight and nine of their last 10, the Raptors have allowed 100-plus points in each of their last two games, both losses. They can point to their defense for the defeats, and I look for them to get back to playing the excellent D that they have been all year tonight.

Toronto will control the tempo playing at home tonight. It ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. The key to Toronto's turnaround this season has been its defense. It ranks 6th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 75-30 (71.4%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavs last five vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson +11

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Quietly, they have gotten off to a 13-4 start this season and have proven their worth in ACC play. They have opened 4-1 in the conference, which includes a win over Duke.

Pittsburgh is a much-improved team this season as well, but it is way overvalued here and has been for much of the season. It has gone just 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 lined games, time and time again failing to cover lofty spreads.

The Panthers are coming off a huge loss to Syracuse by a final of 54-59 over the weekend. I fully expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it will be tough to bounce back emotionally from such a close defeat.

Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Pittsburgh is 1-12 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more over the last three seasons. Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They catch the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season, and I look for them to give the defending champs a run for their money.

Indeed, Miami has lost four of its last six games overall. Now, it is in a very tough situation returning home from a six-game road trip. Making matters worse for the Heat is the fact that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

Despite being on a tough run of late, Boston has shown some fight. It has covered the spread in five of its last eight games overall, which includes losses at the Clippers (105-111) as an 11-point dog, at the Warriors (97-99) as an 11.5-point dog, and at the Blazers (104-112) as a 12-point dog. The Celtics have lost their last four road games all by 8 points or less.

Boston beat Miami 111-110 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Plays against home teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +12

The Indiana Hoosiers will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Not only do they have revenge in mind, but they also want to get the sour taste out of their mouths from an ugly loss last time out.

Indiana lost 56-73 at home to Michigan State on January 4 just over two weeks ago. There's no question it wants payback from that defeat. Off a big win over Wisconsin, it was only human nature that the Hoosiers would let down against Northwestern last game, and it cost them as they lost outright. The Spartans will have their full attention.

Michigan State is way overvalued right now due to its 10-game winning streak heading into this game. Plus, the Spartans are expected to be without their best player in Adreian Payne (16.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a foot injury.

Indiana is 5-1-1 (83%) ATS in its last seven road games. Tom Izzo is 30-47 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Michigan State. Roll with Indiana Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home to the Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in a game that I believe they win with ease.

After losing two of their last three games overall to the Nuggets and Thunder, I look for the Warriors to try and make a statement tonight. The defensive intensity will be there after giving up massive point totals to both the Nuggets (123) and Thunder (127).

Indiana comes in overvalued due to winning four straight games coming in. All four of those wins came at home, but the Pacers have proven to be beatable on the road, posting an 11-6 record. Golden State is 12-5 at home this season.

Plays against road favorites (INDIANA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Warriors Monday.

15* Baylor/Kansas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baylor +10.5

The Baylor Bears will be a highly motivated team tonight when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks. They are way undervalued due to losing three of their first four games in Big 12 play, and I'll gladly take advantage by backing them as a double-digit dog here.

At 13-4 and with wins over Colorado, Dayton, and Kentucky all away from home, I have no doubt that Baylor is still one of the better teams in the country. I look for the Bears to prove that tonight against what is perceived to be as the best team in the Big 12.

After a 4-0 start in conference play, I have no doubt that Kansas is overvalued in this one. Three of those wins came by seven points or less, so it is fortunate to have this record. Remember, the Jayhawks have lost four games this season, including a home loss to San Diego State.

The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. Baylor is a very profitable 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Kansas. Clearly, the Bears have not minded playing in Lawrence at all. Roll with Baylor Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -5

The Miami Heat are back on track with two straight wins over Philadelphia and Charlotte. I look for them to cap off their current six-game road trip with a blowout victory at Atlanta after starting the trip on a three-game skid.

Since losing star center Al Horford, the Atlanta Hawks have really struggled. They have lost five of their last seven games overall while going 2-5 ATS in the process. This team was already lacking talent even with Horford, but without him they're in a world of hurt.

Plays on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.

Miami is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 9-21 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last two years. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days rest. Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +1

After losing four of their last five games overall, the Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory when they host the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance of this team and to get right back on track.

Phoenix is a very solid 22-17 on the season, which includes two wins over Denver already. It won 114-103 at home on November 8, and 103-99 on the road on December 20. The Suns are now 24-8 straight up in their last 32 home meetings with the Nuggets.

The Suns are a very solid 13-6 at home this season, while the Nuggets are just 9-10 on the road and have historically struggled away from home. The Nuggets just lost at home to Cleveland last time out, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Denver is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games. Phoenix is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Suns Sunday.

15* Oregon/OSU CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2.5

The Oregon Ducks opened the season 13-0 and were rolling. Three straight losses later to Colorado, Cal and Stanford, and this team is searching for itself. Due to this 3-game skid, I look for the Ducks to be even more motivated than usual as they do battle with in-state rival Oregon State in the Civil War Sunday.

I have no doubt that Oregon is still one of the best teams in the country despite this recent skid, and I look for it to show it tonight. This team is simply undervalued right now due to the streak and the six straight losses against the spread as well, and now is the time to pounce.

Oregon State (9-7) is clearly overvmatched in this one. Its true colors have shown as the schedule has gotten tougher of late, losing five of its last eight games overall. Oregon won both meetings by double-digits last year to improve to 24-8 straight up against Oregon State since 1997. The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Oregon State.

Oregon is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Oregon State is 14-37 ATS in its last 51 home games following a home loss. The Ducks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Bet Oregon Sunday.

15* Louisville/UConn ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Connecticut +2

The UConn Huskies have been undervalued for most of this season. That is certainly the case again here tonight as they are a home underdog to the defending champion Louisville Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage.

I've seen enough from the Huskies to know that this team can beat anyone in the country. It has racked up neutral court wins over Maryland and Indiana, home wins over Florida and Harvard, and road wins over Washington and Memphis. That's an impressive slate.

Louisville is 0-3 against the best three opponents that it has faced this season in UNC, Kentucky and Memphis. I would argue that it doesn't have a good win yet considering all of its wins have come as a favorite of 13.5 points or more. It is short-handed as well as it is playing without Chane Behanan (dismissed from team) and third-leading scorer Chris Jones (11.3 ppg).

UConn is 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Huskies are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with UConn Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Pelicans UNDER 204.5

After back-to-back poor defensive performances in giving up 123 points to Denver and 127 to Oklahoma City, you can bet that head coach Mark Jackson isn't going to stand for it. He'll get after his team, and the Warriors will respond with a much better effort defensively tonight.

Making matters easier for the Warriors is the fact that they'll be playing against a New Orleans team that is short-handed right now. The Pelicans are without leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) and starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg). They may also be without fifth-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (12.6 ppg), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

New Orleans has really struggled offensively of late. It has scored 96 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall. Golden State had given up 102 or fewer in five straight games before its last two poor performances.

Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 203 or fewer combined points with totals of 197, 203, 186 and 165 points, respectively. Dating back further, nine of the last 10 meetings have seen 203 or less points, making for a 90% system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Bonaventure -3

St. Bonaventure is one of the better teams in the country that not too many folks know about. Despite being just 11-6 on the season, this team is favored for good reason over George Washington (14-3) tonight.

All six of the Bonnies' losses have come on the road this season with five of them coming by 6 points or less. That includes back-to-back impressive losses at UMass (68-73) as a 7-point dog and at Saint Louis (60-66) as an 11-point dog. They'll clearly be motivated to get back in the win column today.

You have to like their chances considering the Bonnies are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. All three of George Washington's losses have come on the road this year. Off a massive win over VCU earlier this week, the Colonials are in line for a colossal letdown today.

GW is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game after 15-plus games. St. Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. The Colonials are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bonnies are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by 6 points or fewer. Bet St. Bonaventure Saturday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. John's -13

The St. John's Red Storm (9-8) are going to be highly motivated for a win today. As a result, I'll back them as a generous 13-point favorite against Dartmouth (7-7) Saturday.

The Red Storm may be the best team in the country that has eight losses or more on the season. This is a team that returned all five starters from last year and was expected to be improved, but after a slow start, they are undervalued right now.

St. John's is coming off five straight losses against a brutal schedule, and it wants to take out its frustration today. Six of its eight losses have come by 10 points or less, and five of them have come against Wisconsin, Syracuse, Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova.

This is a Dartmouth team that has home losses to Vermont (53-62), Hartford (56-68) and Bryant (56-68), as well as a road loss to IUPU-FT Wayne (64-80) among its seven losses overall. Those results allow me to believe that they have no chance of hanging with the motivated Red Storm today.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (ST JOHNS) - off 2 or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1997. Take St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -1.5

Off back-to-back losses for their first two defeats of the season, I am backing the Iowa State Cyclones to bounce back with a road win at Texas Saturday. This is a serious contender to win the Big 12, and it cannot afford a third straight loss if it wants to accomplish that feat.

Texas is coming off back-to-back wins, including a victory at West Virginia last time out. This is a quality team and one that is better than most expected coming into the season, but I believe it is overvalued due to the solid start. This team is a bit of a fraud and will fade as the Big 12 season rolls along.

Iowa State shot just 31.4% against Kansas while giving up 49.2% shooting to the Jayhawks, yet still only lost 70-77. Even playing their worst game Monday, the Cyclones still had a chance to win that game in the end.

The Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons. They are coming back to win by 14.1 points per game in this spot. Iowa State is also 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years. It is winning by 14.6 points per game in this spot. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler PK

The Butler Bulldogs will be more motivated for a win today than they have been at any point in the season thus far. That's why I'm going to back them at a very generous price as a pick 'em at home against Marquette Saturday.

Butler has lost five straight games coming in with three of those losses coming by five points or less, including setbacks to Villanova (73-76) and Georgetown (67-70). It is ready to put an end to this skid, which has been the result of a brutal schedule and poor fortune in close games more than anything.

Marquette is just 1-4 in true road games this season. I really believe that the Bulldogs are going to be the more motivated team here because they lost both meetings to the Golden Eagles last year by a combined three points, including a 72-74 setback in the NCAA Tournament. They want revenge this year.

The Golden Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Big East opponents. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system going against Marquette. Also, the Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats get the call Saturday as a small home favorite over the West Virginia Mountaineers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from the books.

That has been very evident of late as the Wildcats have gone a healthy 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. That includes wins over the likes of Ole Miss, Gonzaga, George Washington, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

I'm just not sold on West Virginia (10-7), which is getting too much respect from the books here. It has lost its last two games to Oklahoma State and Texas at home. I think its two narrow road wins over TCU and Texas Tech by a combined eight points to open the Big 12 season have it overvalued.

Kansas State is 9-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The Mountaineers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Dallas Mavericks Friday. They are a home underdog and really should not be. But just like they have been all season, this team is getting overlooked.

Indeed, Phoenix is 22-16 straight up on the year and a very healthy 25-12 ATS. This team has the best ATS mark in the entire league, which is the ultimate sign that a team is undervalued.

Dallas is coming off a big loss at the Los Angeles Clippers by a final of 127-129, and it will suffer a hangover off that defeat. That's especially the case considering it has a huge game against Portland on deck tomorrow night. It will be looking ahead to that contest as well.

Phoenix is 13-5 straight up at home this season. Plays on home underdog (Phoenix) off a home win, in January games are 54-20 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 17-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Phoenix is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They not only beat the defending champion Miami Heat last time out, they destroyed them 114-97. They are certainly feeling good about themselves heading into this game with Chicago tonight.

The Wizards are primed for a huge letdown following that win. Adding to the letdown factor is the fact that Washington beat Chicago 102-88 on the road on January 13 just five days ago. I really believe the Wizards won't even show up tonight.

The Bulls, meanwhile, will be out for revenge from that loss earlier this week. This team has been playing great, but it continues to get disrespected. The Bulls have won six of their last seven games overall behind the most underrated head coach in the business in Tom Thibodeau.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Friday game. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +2

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a well-rested team. This will only be their second game in five days, so they'll be ready to go tonight. This is the best team in the league that currently has a losing record, without question.

In fact, the Timberwolves are 0-11 in games decided by four points or less this season. That's how close they are to being a 29-9 team rather than an 18-20 one. Due to having a losing record, this team is going to be showing great value going forward.

I have been big on Toronto for much of the season, but it should not be a favorite against Minnesota tonight. The Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but they aren't better than a middle-of-the-pack team from the West.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. It is coming back to win 114.7 to 100.6 in this spot, or by an average of 14.1 points per game. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS off a home loss this year, winning 118.4 to 98.3 in this spot, or by an average of 20.1 points per game. Take the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday BAILOUT on Houston -2

The Houston Rockets are going to be out for revenge in a big way tonight when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Toyota Center. That's why I'm not concerned that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back, because they'll want this one enough that fatigue will not be a factor.

The reason Houston is going to be extra motivated is not only the fact that it lost to Oklahoma City in six games in the playoffs last year, but also that it suffered its worst loss of 2013-14 to the Thunder as well. The Rockets fell 86-117 on December 29 in Oklahoma City.

The biggest difference from then and now is that the Thunder no longer have Russell Westbrook. They clearly aren't even close to the same team without their start point guard. In fact, the Thunder have lost five of their last eight games overall with their three wins coming against Boston, Minnesota and Milwaukee.

Houston is 15-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game. The Rockets are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a road non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Houston is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 games off a road win by 3 points or less. The Rockets are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 home games off a road win against a division rival. Houston is 37-15-3 ATS in its last 55 Thursday games. Take the Rockets Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +13

Nebraska-Omaha is one of those teams from a small conference that the betting public has not caught onto. The Mavericks have been a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS this season, and I'll continue to ride them showing tremendous value tonight.

This is a Nebraska-Omaha team that returned four starters from last season. It is led by three absolute studs in John Karhoff (14.4 ppg), CJ Carter (14.1 ppg) and Devin Patterson (12.1 ppg). The Mavericks are averaging 83.3 points per game this season and shooting 78.6% from the free throw line.

North Dakota State also returns a lot of talent from last season, but this team is simply overvalued tonight. The Bison have failed to cover the spread in three of their last five games overall, which includes a 71-82 loss at IUPU-FT Wayne despite being a 7-point favorite.

NDSU is 0-7 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Omaha has not lost by more than 13 points yet this season, which includes covers at Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point dog, at UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog, at Minnesota (79-92) as a 16-point dog, and at Hawaii (73-77) as a 9-point dog. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Thursday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5

The New York Knicks get the nod Thursday as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. They have really turned it around of late and are playing their best basketball of the season heading into tonight's contest.

New York has won five of its last six games overall, which includes victories over the likes of Dallas, Miami and Phoenix. The big reason for the turnaround has been the return of health to both Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton.

The motivation factor is clearly going to be on the Knicks' side in this one. They lost in six games to Indiana in the playoffs last season, and they also fell in overtime 96-103 in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign. New York is going to be out for blood tonight.

Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. New York is 20-0 ATS revenging a loss where opponents scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston +18

The defending champion Louisville Cardinals are once again overvalued tonight as an 18-point favorite over the Houston Cougars. I'll gladly fade them here, which is something I've done with quite a bit of success this season.

Louisville is really lacking quality wins this season. In its three toughest games this year, it lost to UNC (84-93), Kentucky (66-73) and Memphis (67-73). This team has failed to cover in three straight games, and they are nowhere near as good as they were a year ago when they won it all.

The team dismissed Chane Behanan in early January, which left the Cardinals very thin along the front line. Now, they are expected to be without third-leading scorer Chris Jones (11.3 ppg), who is out with an oblique injury.

Houston (10-6) is quietly having a solid season. I have backed this team with success a few times this year, and I believe it is one of the more underrated teams in the land. It nearly beat Cincinnati (60-61) last time out, and it beat UConn (75-71) just a couple weeks ago. This team is capable of hanging with Louisville.

The Cardinals are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following four consecutive games as a favorite. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Houston Thursday.

20* UConn/Memphis ESPN No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut +6.5

The Connecticut Huskies are showing their best value of the season as a mid-sized road underdog to the Memphis Tigers tonight. I look for them not only to cover, but to likely win this game outright tonight.

Had they been eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year, they would have gone. Now eligible in 2014, and with all five starters back from that team, the Huskies are the real deal at 13-3 this season. They have beaten Maryland, Indiana, Florida, Washington and Harvard en route to this solid start.

Memphis comes in overvalued after back-to-back wins at Louisville and Temple. Those two wins have certainly masked their 53-69 home loss to Cincinnati in their last home game, but I certainly have not forgotten about it. UConn plays hard-nosed defense and will give this young Memphis team fits.

The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. Memphis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 10 points or more. Bet Connecticut Thursday.

15* Washington/California Pac-12 BAILOUT on Washington +9.5

The Washington Huskies get the call Wednesday as a big underdog to the California Bears in the final game of the night on the college hardwood. Asking the Bears to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The Huskies are off to an 11-6 start this season, but they have saved their best basketball for the Pac-12. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in Pac-12 play, which includes an impressive road win at Arizona State (76-65) as a 10.5-point underdog, and a blowout home win over Colorado (71-54) as a 3.5-point dog.

Despite playing well, the Huskies are getting no respect from the books. While Cal is also playing well, it is indeed getting all kinds of respect from the books. Cal has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Pac-12 play, and I have been on the Bears for two of those three games. I just think it's time to fade them now that they are overvalued due to this impressive mini-run.

California is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in a win over a conference rival. Washington is 9-2 ATS in January games over the last two seasons. Lorenzo Romar is a sensational 93-63 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Washington.

The Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Huskies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Cal. Bet Washington Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -7

The Golden State Warriors are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 games overall, and now they have had four days to recover from a grueling stretch of games having last played on January 10. They'll have no problem getting motivated to face Denver on National TV tonight.

The Nuggets have been one of the most streaky teams in the league this season. They had lost eight games in a row from late December to early January before reeling off five straight wins. They lost their last contest at Utah 103-118, and I look for that to be the start of another losing streak for this team.

Golden State is a healthy 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver. The Warriors are 12-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points per game. Denver is just 8-10 on the road and has historically been an awful road team.

Plays against road teams (DENVER) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.

Golden State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on three or more days rest. Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons get the nod as a small home favorite over the NC State Wolfpack tonight. This is a very generous line given how Jeff Bzdelik's team has played at home.

Indeed, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. They have beaten the likes of Richmond (76-66), St. Bonaventure (77-62) and North Carolina (73-67) at home this season, so it's not like they have beaten up a bunch of cupcakes.

While Wake Forest has four returning starters and is much-improved in 2013-14, NC State is a young team with just one starter back. It has struggled of late, losing three of its last five games overall, including a 45-76 home loss to Virginia last time out. It also has a home loss to NC Central (72-82) on its resume.

Wake Forest has won 12 of its last 16 home meetings with NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 60 or less points. Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS in January home games over the last two years. The Demon Deacons are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a world of hurt right now. They are without two of their top three players, and as a result, they have lost six straight games heading into this contest with Houston. Five of those losses have come by six points or more.

Leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) may miss the rest of the season. Top assist man Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) remains out with a fractured leg. Also, shooting guard Tyreke Evans (12.6 ppg) is questionable to play tonight with a bum ankle.

Houston comes in playing well having won four of five. It has really dominated this series of late, winning five of its last six meetings with New Orleans. Four of those five wins came by seven or more points, including a 100-82 victory in its last trip to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games. Take the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +21

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are getting way too much respect from the books tonight as a 21-point favorite over the TCU Horned Frogs. I'll gladly take advantage and take all the points I can get here.

Oklahoma State is in a huge letdown spot here. It will be looking ahead to its massive showdown with Big 12 favorite Kansas this Saturday in Lawrence. It will not be giving TCU the attention it deserves because of it.

The Horned Frogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 9-6 start. They are undervalued due to opening 0-3 in Big 12 play, which included a 62-68 loss at Baylor last time out. I look for them to easily stay within 21 points of a Cowboys team that will just be going through the motions tonight.

As horrible as TCU was last season, it still stayed within 18 points or Oklahoma State in both meetings. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +11.5

The Duquesne Dukes get the call as a double-digit underdog tonight to the St. Joseph's Hawks. I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Dukes having a good shot to pull off the upset on the road.

Duquesne is off to a respectable 8-6 start overall. It has played its best basketball on the road this season, going 3-1 straight up in true road games.

St. Joe's is 10-5 this season, but it could be without one of its best players tonight. Second-leading scorer Ronald Roberts (14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is questionable to play with a back injury after missing Saturday's game against George Mason.

What really attracted me to Duquesne is the fact that it has played St. Joseph's very tough in recent years. In fact, three of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime. Duquesne hasn't lost by more than eight points to St. Joseph's in any of the last seven meetings.

St. Joe's is 1-8 ATS after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls over the last three seasons. The Hawks are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Roll with Duquesne Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State +10

The Missouri State Bears are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013. They are still getting treated like a bottom feeder in the Missouri Valley, which simply is not the case.

Missouri State is off to a 12-4 start this season with three of its losses coming to three of the best teams in the country in Wichita State, Louisville and Virginia. That loss to Wichita State came by a mere three points with a final of 69-72 to really show what the Bears are capable of.

I am high on Indiana State this year as well, but this is simply a tough spot for the Sycamores. They will be looking ahead to their game at No. 5 Wichita State on Saturday. They won't give Missouri State the attention it deserves, and thus they won't win this game by double-digits.

Indiana State is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons. The Bears are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Missouri State is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. MVC foes. The Sycamores are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. Take Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler +10.5

The Butler Bulldogs are showing tremendous value as a double-digit road underdog to the Creighton Bluejays Tuesday. I look for them to be highly motivated and to lay it all on the line after a brutal stretch of games heading in.

Butler got off to a 10-2 start this season to pick up right where it left off under former head coach Brad Stevens. However, it hast lost four straight games all by 11 points or less to Villanova (73-76), Xavier (68-79), DePaul (94-99) and Georgetown (67-70) coming in. I look for it to possibly pull off the upset here.

Creighton is coming off a big 95-89 home victory over Xavier last time out, which was on Sunday. That means that it has only had one day to prepare for Butler, while the Bulldogs have had two days to prepare after losing to Georgetown on Saturday. That is a huge advantage for the Bulldogs, who catch the Bluejays in a letdown spot.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (BUTLER) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 117-60 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Creighton is 9-19 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Bet Butler Tuesday.