20* Knicks/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks.  I expect the defensive intensity in this game to be very high with both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah making their much-anticipated returns to Chicago.

The Bulls wanted to play faster under Fred Hoiberg, but that just hasn't been the case.  They rank 19th in pace this season at 98.7 possessions per game.  But they have actually been very good on defense this year as they are 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's really impressive when you consider the Bulls have faced the Celtics (twice) and Pacers, along with the up-tempo Nets.  They have played some of the best offenses in the NBA to this point.  And we've seen 207 or fewer combined points scored in three of Chicago's four games.

The Knicks have scored 99 or fewer points in three of their four games this season.  They are lost offensive right now as they are trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's new system.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring only 96.1 points per 100 possessions.

Recent head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Bulls and Knicks have combined for 200 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 211.5-point total set.  New York is 9-0 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 209.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight.  Minnesota is without starting PG Ricky Rubio, while Denver is without leading scorer Will Barton and starting SG Gary Harris.

Tom Thibodeau has changed the culture in Minnesota.  He has them slowing it down and playing defense.  The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo here playing at home.  It's also worth noting that Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 8th in the early going.

Recent head-to-head history between these teams even before Thibodeau was in Minnesota shows that there's value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 152, 212, 200, 173 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 184.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves really should be 3-0 right now.  Instead they are 1-2 and undervalued.  They blew a 17-point lead at Memphis and lost 98-102.  They also blew an 18-point lead at Sacramento and lost 103-106.

But the Timberwolves showed a lot of fight in their home opener on Tuesday against Memphis.  They beat the Grizzlies 116-80 after keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Look for more of the same here at home against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are also 1-2, and while I really like this team and have backed them with success against the spread, I like the Timberwolves more.  The Nuggets' only win came on the road at New Orleans, which is 0-5 on the season.  They lost at home to Portland and on the road to Toronto.

While the Timberwolves are without Ricky Rubio, I believe they are better with Kris Dunn, who had 10 points, six assists and five steals in 29 minutes in the win over Memphis.  Denver is expected to be without Will Barton, who is their leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Gary Harris is also expected to miss this game with a groin injury.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns +3.5

The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 this season and undervalued as a result.  But they have played a brutal schedule to open the season, and they're really going to be hungry for their first win at home tonight.

The Suns have lost to the Kings, Thunder, Warriors and Clippers.  They only lost by 3 at Oklahoma City in overtime as 7.5-point dogs, and by 6 at home to Golden State as 11.5-point dogs to really show what they are capable of.

The Portland Trail Blazers are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they just lost 104-127 to the Warriors last night, so they won't be nearly as excited to play the Suns here.  This is clearly a hangover spot for the Blazers.

Phoenix is 13-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more over the past two seasons.  Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more three straight games are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 99-105 loss at Chicago on October 27th.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back that night, so it wasn't a great spot for them.

Now the Celtics have had three days off in between games to prepare for the Bulls, who have only had one day off.  That's a really nice rest advantage here, so the Celtics should be laying it all on the line tonight.

The Bulls come in overvalued due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  But two of their wins have come at home, and the other was a road win over the Brooklyn Nets, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS off a road win over the past two seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +10.5

The Utah Jazz are simply catching too many points tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them as double-digit underdogs here.

This is really the perfect storm.  Utah is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS, while San Antonio is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  The betting public is all over the Spurs because of this and quick to fade the Jazz.  That has created some artificial line value here with the road dog.

It's worth noting that the Spurs have covered two games by a half point as they won by 8 as 7.5-point favorites over the Kings, and by 7 as 6.5-point favorites over the Heat.  It's also worth noting that both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are banged up right now, though both are expected to play.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against opponent after a game where they covered the spread are 162-100 (61.8%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/T'Wolves UNDER 199.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are already familiar with one another.  That's because they both opened the season against each other on October 26th.

Memphis beat Minnesota 102-98 for 200 combined points, barely going over the 199-point total.  Now we're seeing a similar total in the rematch, but points are going to be much harder to come by in the rematch.  That's why I believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

I've also checked out the pace stats, and these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis ranks 28th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game.  Minnesota is 29th in pace at 94.3 possessions per game as Tom Thibodeau has them playing at a much slower tempo than last year.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Memphis is 53-33 UNDER in its last 86 road games after scoring 110 points or more in its previous game.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after scoring 100 points or more three straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games are 37-12 (75.5%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for their first victory of the season.  After going on the road for their first two games and losing a couple heartbreakers, now they will be playing their home opener in front of a hostile crowd.  I look for a big performance from them.

And the Timberwolves really should have won their first two games.  They held an early 17-point lead against Memphis before losing 98-102.  They also squandered a big lead at Sacramento on Saturday.  They gave up an 18-point lead in the first half and lost 103-106.

Adding to the motivation for the Timberwolves is that they want revenge on Memphis here.  They were outscored by the Grizzlies 52-39 in the second half of the opener.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 this season, but they lost their only road game 104-111 to the New York Knicks.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have shown that in their past two games as they've hung right with two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors.

The Suns lost 110-113 in overtime at Oklahoma City as 7.5-point dogs on Friday, and then gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 100-106 home loss Sunday as 11.5-point dogs.  But they're now 0-3 on the season, so they are extremely hungry for a victory right now, which should have them keeping this game close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued here today after starting 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with wins over the Blazers and the Jazz.  They beat the Blazers by 8 as 2.5-point road favorites, and the Jazz by 13 as 7.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  The Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Jazz were playing short-handed.

The Suns gave the Clippers trouble last season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  They won 114-105 and 118-104 in their two home meetings, and also only lost by 6 as 8.5-point road dogs in their three covers.  I look for them to stay within double-digits here tonight and possibly pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 5-16 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons.  Plays against home teams (LA CLIPPERS) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Denver Nuggets +7

The Denver Nuggets aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers in the early going, so I'm going to continue to back them here as I expect them to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are catching 7 points here against the Toronto Raptors, which I feel is too much.

The Nuggets opened the season with a 107-102 road win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.  They led by double-digits most the way and outrebounded the Pelicans 69-42, and won despite committing 24 turnovers.  Then they lost to the Blazers 113-115 (OT) as 1.5-point home dogs.  They shot just 38% from the field, but had a 72-57 edge on the boards, which kept them in the game.

And they had a 2-point lead in regulation with 15 seconds left and turned the ball over.  They had a 2-point lead with four seconds left and missed two free throws.  So, they should have won that game, and they'll come back motivated here.

I like to fade the Toronto Raptors in this spot.  Their last game came at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 91-94 loss.  After facing the defending champs last game, I don't foresee them being nearly as motivated to face the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets won both meetings with the Raptors as underdogs last season.  They won 106-105 as 10-point road dogs, and 112-93 as 4.5-point home dogs.  Denver is 10-1 ATS off two straight games where they outrebounded their opponent by 15 or more.  The Nuggets are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons.  Denver is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12

It's no surprise that the Golden State Warriors have opened 2016-17 way overvalued with the addition of Kevin Durant.  That has proven to be the case as they are 0-2 ATS.

They lost 100-129 at home to San Antonio as 8-point favorites, and failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites in a 122-114 road win over the Pelicans.  Now they are once again overvalued here as they're being asked to lay a whopping 12 points on the road to the Suns.

Phoenix is a team I'm going to be on early and often because they are undervalued.  The Suns played poorly in their opener, a 94-113 loss to the Kings, which has only added to their value.  But they took the Thunder to overtime on the road last time out as 7.5-point dogs and covered in a 110-113 loss.  Now they'll be up for this game against the two-time defending Western Conference champs.

The Suns played the Warriors tough in their final two meetings last year, losing by 8 as 16-point home dogs and by 7 as 19-point road dogs.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Utah +7.5

The Utah Jazz are showing great value here as 7.5-point road dogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are clearly undervlaued right now after opening the season 0-2 against the spread.

They blew a fourth quarter lead in their opener and lost 104-113 as 5.5-point road dogs to the Blazers.  They also nearly blew a double-digit lead late in a 96-89 home win over the Lakers, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers now after winning 114-106 at Portland as 2.5-point road favorites.  But the Blazers were playing the second of a back-to-back in that game and were clearly in a tough spot, and the Clippers gave a spirited effort as they wanted revenge from losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last year.

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Jazz are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is simply catching too many points here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2

I backed the Nuggets with success in their 107-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their opener on Wednesday night.  I'll come back with them here as they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers, who have beaten the Jazz but lost to the Clippers at home.  Now they'll be on their first road game.

The Nuggets have stockpiled talent and will prove to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.

But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

The Nuggets controlled the game against the Pelicans in the opener as they led basically the entire way.  What was so impressive about that win was the fact that they committed 24 turnovers compared to 11 for the Pelicans, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  The Nuggets also had a 69-42 edge in rebounds, and they will outrebound most of their opponents this season because they are so strong inside.  And they have a lot of length at all positions.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +10

I still believe the Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their ugly performance in their opener.  But that 94-113 home loss to Sacramento has only added to their value here against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they are catching double-digits.

The Thunder have no business being double-digit favorites after losing Kevin Durant this offseason.  They barely survived in a 103-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their opener.  Their options are very limited on offense now, and I don't foresee them putting away the Suns by double-digits here.

Phoenix has one of the best guard trios in the NBA in Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  The Suns didn't get off to a good start against the Kings as they trailed 57-38 at half, but their depth really showed as the second unit was able to cut the lead to 10 in the third quarter, though that was as close as they would get.  Veteran starters in Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and company will look for a big bounce-back performance here.

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss.  The Suns are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +8.5

The Sacramento Kings shot the lights out in the preseason, and it certainly carried over into their regular season opener last night against the Phoenix Suns.  They won 113-94 and shot 51.2% from the field.  Now the fans will come out excited for their home opener Thursday night against the San Antonio Spurs.

Dave Joerger, the former Grizzlies' coach, is working his magic for the Kings this season.  DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points and 13 boards in only 24 minutes last night.  Rudy Gay had 22 points, and newcomers Matt Barnes (14) and Garrett Temple (12) both had solid games as well.  This is clearly a better roster than the Kings are getting credit for.

I love fading the San Antonio Spurs in this spot.  They are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night in their opener.  They killed the Warriors on the boards, but that won't be the case against the Kings.  And the Spurs certainly won't be up for the Kings like they were against the Warriors.

The Kings will be unveiling their new $557 million, 17,500-seat Golden 1 Center arena in the city's downtown area.  Look for them to play with added incentive tonight to please their home fans, which makes me much less concerned that they are playing the second of a back-to-back here, especially since they didn't need their starters to play big minutes last night against Phoenix.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They suffered a rash of injuries last season that led to a 23-win campaign, but now most of those players gained valuable experience, and now they enter 2016-17 healthy.

Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight both missed significant time last season, but now they are ready to go to start the season.  Their injuries allowed Devin Booker to flourish.  He became the fourth-youngest player to score 1,000 points in a season.  Now he's the starting shooting guard and he's still shy of 20 yards of age, and he finished 5th in the preseason in scoring at 19.6 points per game.

The Suns also added veterans Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa this offseason.  P.J. Tucker has been cleared to play and will play a big role off the bench.  T.J. Warren, coming off season-ending foot surgery, will start at forward with Dudley and Tyson Chandler at center.

The Sacramento Kings still have the same cancerous nucleus of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.  And Sacramento will start the season without starting point guard Darren Collison, who begins his eight-game suspension due to domestic battery.  That means journeyman Ty Lawson will start at point for the Kings.  Lawson is coming off two poor seasons and two DUI arrests in 2015.  This is simply a team in turmoil right now that we'll look to fade early and often.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 199.5

Tom Thibodeau was a great hire for the Timberwolves and will work wonders for them as soon as this season.  His influence on the defensive side of the ball has already been apparent in the preseason.

The Timberwolves played seven preaseson games, and only allowed more than 100 points once.  They gave up an average of 94.6 points per game in the preseason, which is a huge improvement after finishing as one of the league's worst defensive teams last season.  Thibodeau's impact is the sole reason for that.

The Memphis Grizzlies are still an offensively-challenged outfit.  They run their offense through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who are two solid big men.  But they like to slow it down.  I like the addition of Chandler Parsons to upgrade their shooting, but he's currently injured and unavailable for the opener.

There is a hidden angle here that should also help the UNDER.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies just faced each other one week ago today.  The Timberwolves won that game 101-94 at home for 195 combined points.  These teams are now familiar with each other after playing a week ago, which certainly favors the defenses.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 126-66 (65.6%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  New head coach Mike Malone steps into a great situation as the Nuggets have stockpiled talent, and now that talent should shine through this season as the Nuggets make a run at the playoffs.

Big men Jusuf Nurkic (7-0) and Nikola Jokic (6-11) played very well together in the preseason and will be starting.  These are two little-known names, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are so undervalued.  But Nurkic is great at drawing fouls and the offense can go through him.  He is strong on the offensive glass and finishing near the basket.  Jokic is a cog in the Nuggets' high-post offense and has the ability to pick and pop.  Both are above-average passers.

Emmanueal Mudiay figures to take a big step forward in his second season.  Gary Harris enters his third season and made the same big leap as a sophomore last year.  Danilo Gallinari did everything for the Nuggets last year before getting injured after the All-Star Break, but now he's healthy.  Kenneth Faried is a high-energy guy that can do all the little things.

New Orleans won just 30 games last year thanks to a boat load of injuries.  Their players missed a combined 351 games, forcing coach Alvin Gentry to use 42 starting lineup combinations.  And unfortunately for Gentry, injuries continue to be a problem starting the season.  The Pelicans went just 1-5 in the preseason.

Anthony Davis suffered an ankle injury on October 12, but returned for the preseason finale on Friday.  He is scheduled to start, but won't be 100%.  Tyreke Evans (knee) won't return until December, forward Quintin Pondexter (knee) is out indefinitely, and starting PG Jrue Holiday is caring for his ill wife Lauren, and there's no timetable for his return.

Now the Pelicans' starting lineup looks awful without those three.  They will be starting Tim Frazier at point guard, E'Twaun Moore at shooting guard, Solomon Hill at small forward, Davis at power forward and Omer Asik at center.  This isn't a lineup that's going to win a lot of games in the early going.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* 2016 NBA Season Opener on Knicks/Cavs UNDER 206

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the season opener between the Cleveland Cavs and New York Knicks.  I don't expect either offense to be hitting on all cylinders in this contest, especially the Knicks.

The Knicks have had a lot of turnover this offseason.  They are relying on Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, their two biggest signings, to play big minutes.  But those two both missed most of the preseason, Noah with an injury and Rose with legal troubles.  They will be out of sync for sure, especially trying to learn Jeff Hornacek's offense on the fly.

Recent head-to-head history really has me liking the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 200, 175, 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 182.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.

New York is 30-15 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 or more points over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 32-14 to the UNDER against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

Only 10 teams in NBA history have come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a playoff series.  No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals.  I expect that to hold up tonight as the Warriors win Game 7 and cap off a historic season.

The Warriors are 50-4 at home this season.  Yes, they lost their last home game to the Cavs, but that was a rarity and everything went Cleveland's way.  The Warriors were without Draymond Green for that game, otherwise this series would probably be over.

The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six Sunday games.  The Warriors are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Golden State is 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series in six games just as they did last year.  They come in highly motivated to get the job done, especially now that they have their leader in Draymond Green back in the lineup.

Everything had to go right for the Cavs to steal Game 5 in Golden State.  It started with the unwarranted suspension of Green, who may be the Warriors' most important player.  Then Andrew Bogut went out with an injury in the 3rd quarter.  Plus, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James became the first duo to top 41 points on the same team in NBA Finals history.

With Green back, the Warriors will not only be better defensively in stopping James and company, they'll also be better offensively.  In fact, the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points when Green has played center in this series.  Golden State will be forced to use their "Death Lineup", which has been the best lineup in the NBA all season, and it will lead them to victory.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Golden State is a sensational 14-1 straight up following a loss this season, including playoffs.  It simply does not lose consecutive games.  Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in must-win mode now with their season on the line.  They caught a huge break with the suspension of Draymond Green in Game 5, and I look for them to take advantage and give the Warriors a run for their money.

The Cavaliers have been outscored by 51 points when Green has played center in this series.  That is known as their "Death Lineup", which is the most effective lineup in the NBA.  Without it the Warriors are extremely vulnerable.  They have a deep bench, but nobody can replace what Green brings to this team.

Cleveland is 21-12 ATS versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Cavs are 17-8 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams who score 103-plus points per game this year.  Cleveland is 19-9 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers proved their naysayers wrong with an emphatic 30-point victory in Game 3.  Now they have the belief that they can beat the Warriors, and they will ride that wave into a Game 4 victory again tonight to even the series.

Home-court advantage has been huge for the Cavaliers all season.  They are now 41-8 at home on the year and a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs.  They have won seven of their eight playoff home games by 11 points or more, and they are winning at home in the postseason by an average of over 21 points per game.

The Warriors have certainly been vulnerable on the road in these playoffs, especially here of late.  They are just 2-4 in their last six playoff road games with their two wins only coming by 7 points apiece.  They have actually been outscored by an average of 13.3 points per game in their last six playoff road games.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games overall.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent my favorite bet of the entire postseason in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.  This is a must-win for them if they want to make a series out of it, and they certainly won't be lacking any motivation after the showing they put forth in Oakland.

The media has counted the Cavaliers out and left them for dead.  But they aren't going to go out this way, and you can bet they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders tonight.  They will win the 50/50 balls in this one behind the energy from their home crowd and pick up a win that will get them back in this series.

After all, Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-8 at home, including a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs.  The Cavaliers have rarely even been tested at home in these playoffs as six of their seven victories have come by 11 points or more with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points per game.

The Warriors haven't exactly played great on the road here of late.  They are 2-3 in their last five road games in these playoffs with their two wins coming by 7 and 7 points.  They have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points per game in their last five road games.

Cleveland is 21-10 ATS in home game revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Golden State Warriors on the ropes with a lead late in the 3rd quarter.  But the Warriors got an unbelievable 45 points from their bench to pull away, which isn't going to happen again in Game 2.

I've spoke about the zig-zag-theory, which means taking the team that lost the previous game.  While it's only .500 this entire postseason, it is very profitable in Game 2's over time.  Indeed, the loser of Game 1 is 204-159-13 (56.2%) ATS in Game 2 since 1991.

The Cavaliers will make the necessary adjustments in Game 2.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for only 20 points in Game 1, and if they do anything near that again, the Cavaliers will pounce.  J.R. Smith and Channing Frye, two key members of the Cavs, will certainly do more than they did in Game 1.

Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Golden State is 4-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a lot going for them heading into Game 1 of this series tonight.  For starters, they've had three extra days of rest after beating the Raptors in six games.  We've seen them thrive with extra rest in these playoffs.

Indeed, the Cavaliers made easy work of the Hawks in a 104-93 home victory as 8-point favorites in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.  After sweeping the Hawks, they crushed Toronto 115-84 at home in Game 1 as 11-point favorites last series.

There's no question that the Cavaliers are the more motivated team heading into this series, too.  This is a rematch from last year's NBA Finals.  The Cavs took the Warriors to six games even without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.  Now they have both healthy, want revenge, and are hitting on all cylinders right now as they've been the most impressive team in these playoffs.

Cleveland is 12-2 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  Golden State is 3-12 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  This is actually a hangover spot for the Warriors after fighting back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Thunder last series.  I look for them to come out flat compared to the Cavs in Game 1.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have all the momentum right now.  After coming back from a 3-1 deficit in this series, they have forced a Game 7 by winning the last two games, including Game 6 on the road by 7.  I like them to win by double-digits now in Game 7 so we'll back them laying 7 points here.

The Warriors have made some nice adjustments these last two games by going bigger.  They have only been outrebounded by a combined 2 boards these last two games.  Playing the Thunder pretty much even on the glass has been the difference, and I expect them to continue to battle on the boards with everything on the line in Game 7.

The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Golden State is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  The Warriors are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Golden State.  Bet the Warriors in Game 7 Monday.

20* Warriors/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2.5

The Golden State Warriors showed their championship resolve by winning Game 5 120-111 over the Thunder.  Now they are ready to take the show on the road and finally play up to their potential after a disastrous two games in Oklahoma City earlier this series.

You can ask any NBA player and they'll tell you that a close-out game is the hardest.  That's especially the case for the Thunder, who haven't been to the NBA Finals in a while.  It's also tough to close out the defending champions, especially one with the mental fortitude of the Warriors.

There were some adjustments in Game 5 that I really liked from the Warriors.  They played Andrew Bogut big minutes to counter the big lineup of the Thunder, and it worked.  Bogut had 15 points and 14 rebounds in nearly 30 minutes of action.  He was a big reason the Warriors actually outrebounded the Thunder 54-50 for the game.

Golden State is 13-4 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  The Warriors are 60-43 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  OKC is 11-20 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game this season.  Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Saturday.

15* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Cleveland -6

I realize that the home team has dominated this series all season long.  In fact, the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in all meetings between the Cavs and Raptors this season.  I've even been on the home team in four of the first five games in this series.

But I'm reversing course in Game 6.  The Cavaliers will really buckle down heading into Game 6 to try and get a signature road win and beat the West to the NBA Finals, which will give them the advantage in rest going in.  Lebron James and company will make a big point of finishing this series out on the road and not going back home for a Game 7.  It will be the emphasis today.

After all, that 116-78 beat down the Cavs put on the Raptors in Game 5 had to be extremely deflating for Toronto players.  Even though they've won two games this series, they know they stand no chance of winning it if they have to go back to Cleveland.  The season has already been a success for the Raptors, while anything short of a championship would be a disappointment for Cleveland.  That's why I like the mindset of the Cavs a lot more coming in to Game 6.

Plays against home underdogs (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 83-46 (64.3%) ATS since 1996.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-10 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two years.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors must go 3-0 the rest of this series if they want to have a chance at winning back-to-back titles and end their amazing season the right way.  I like their chances of a big performance in Game 5 tonight considering it's at home.

After all, the Warriors are 46-3 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game.  They throttled the Thunder in Game 2 118-91 and a similar result can be expected tonight.  That was their best game of the series, and they will get back to moving the basketball and being more aggressive on 50/50 balls at home tonight, especially on the boards with everything at stake.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this rivalry as the home team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Golden State is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.

Plays on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Warriors in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland -10.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers certainly did not want to lose both games in Toronto to have this series evened up at 2-2.  However, it will only have them more motivated than ever to make a statement in Game 5 at home and regain control of this series.

After all, home-court advantage has been enormous when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And the games in Cleveland haven't even been close.

Cleveland is 3-0 at home against Toronto this season.  It won by 22 points in the regular season, by 31 in Game 1, and by 19 in Game 2.  That's an average margin of victory of 24.0 points per game.  That's why I'm not concerned at all about laying 10.5 points with the Cavs in Game 5 here tonight.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% this season.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.

25* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are in must-win mode tonight to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Look for them to come through just as they have all season in these spots with tremendous resiliency.

In fact, the Warriors haven't lost back-to-back games all season.  They are 12-0 straight up in games following a loss this year.  Their 28-point blowout loss to the Thunder in Game 3 certainly is not sitting well with them, and I fully expect them to go out and do something about it tonight in Oklahoma City.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 63-26 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.

Golden State is 10-2 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Warriors are 21-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two years.  Golden State is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games following a loss.  The Warriors are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on Toronto +6.5

The Toronto Raptors proved to themselves that they could play with the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Not only did they win, they dominated in a 99-84 victory while limiting the Cavaliers to 35.4% shooting and outrebounding them 57-43 for the game.

Bismack Biyombo was a one-man wrecking crew on the glass, finishing with a playoff-record 26 rebounds and four blocked shots.  It was an inspirational performance from him and the Raptors that will give them the confidence to win Game 4 again tonight.

Toronto was one of the best home teams in the NBA all season.  It has gone 39-11 at home this season.  In fact, the Raptors are now a perfect 3-0 straight up at home against Cleveland this year, winning all three games outright as underdogs.  Now they are being undervalued once again in Game 4 as 6.5-point home dogs.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last two years.  Cleveland is 14-23 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

20* Warriors/Thunder Game 3 No-Doubt Rout on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors played their game in Game 2 and ran away with a 27-point victory.  That was after playing too much one-on-one ball in Game 1 and losing by 4.  Look for them to stick to their roots again in Game 3 tonight, share the basketball, and beat the predictable Thunder.

The Warriors went 36-9 on the road this season, so winning in hostile environments hasn't been a problem for them all season.  They clearly figured out the Thunder in Game 2, and even though Kevin Durant had a big game, they rolled to victory with a huge second half.

Let's just look at the Warriors' 121-118 overtime victory in Oklahoma City earlier this season.  The Thunder outrebounded the Warriors 62-32 in that contest, yet they still didn't win.  I don't ever remember seeing a rebounding advantage that large in which a team lost.  The Warriors responded in Game 2 of this series by outrebounding the Thunder 54-45.  So they clearly know they can compete with them on the boards.

The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  Golden State is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by 5-plus boards per game.  Oklahoma City is 11-22 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +6.5

The Toronto Raptors will be laying it all on the line in Game 3 tonight to get a victory and get back in this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I believe they are showing tremendous value as 6.5-point underdogs here after getting blown out in both games in Cleveland to fall behind 2-0.

The Raptors have been one of the best home teams in the NBA all season.  They are 38-11 at home and outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game in Toronto.  The Cavs are just 28-17 on the road compared to 39-8 at home.

Toronto is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Raptors went 2-0 at home against Cleveland this season, winning outright as underdogs both times.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after covering at least five of their last seven games against the spread this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this year.  Cleveland is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games after scoring 100 points or more in four straight.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Toronto +13

The Cavs opened as 10.5-point favorites in Game 1.  After blowing out the Raptors 115-84, oddsmakers have set them as anywhere from 12 to 13-point favorites in Game 2.  This is clearly an overreaction, and as a result I believe the value is with the Raptors in Game 2 catching a ton of points.

I was on Cleveland in Game 1 because it was simply a bad spot for Toronto.  The Raptors were on one day of rest, while the Cavaliers had nine days off coming in.  But Game 2 is a much more level playing field now, and I look for the Raptors to come out with a much better effort tonight.

The Raptors have proven to be extremely resilient in these playoffs.  In fact, they have not lost two games in a row all postseason.  They are a perfect 6-0 straight up following a loss in the playoffs.  I'm not saying they're going to win today, but they will certainly stay within this 13-point spread.

Toronto is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.  Cleveland is 1-9 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Raptors are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Golden State -8.5

After blowing Game 1 by getting outscored by 19 points in the 2nd half, the Golden State Warriors are going to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight to even this series.  At the same time, I expect the Thunder to relax a little after stealing away home court with their Game 1 victory.

To say that was a rare home loss for the Warriors would be a massive understatement.  They are now 45-3 at home this season and outscoring teams by 14.1 points per game.  They outscored the Thunder by 11.5 points per game while going 2-0 at home in the regular season series.

Golden State is 25-10 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 30-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two years.  Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Warriors are 51-25-2 ATS in their last 78 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland -10.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of this series.  The Cavs are recharged following a nine-day break between playoff series after sweeping the Atlanta Hawks last series.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are running on fumes right now after playing back-to-back 7-game series.  They have only had one day off to rest and prepare for the Cavaliers, and that simply isn't going to be enough here tonight.

I also think that not having Jonas Valanciunas is going to pose a big problem for the Raptors.  The Cavaliers also made 77 3-pointers in their sweep of the Hawks and are hitting on all cylinders right now with an 8-0 record in these playoffs.  They certainly look like the team to beat right now.

Cleveland won its lone home meeting with Toronto 122-100 this season.  The Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Cavs in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors are the most difficult team to prepare for in the NBA.  The Oklahoma City Thunder won't be ready for the challenges they'll face in Game 1.  They may do better as the series goes on, but I give the Warriors a big advantage in Game 1.

Look at what the Warriors have done in Game 1's so far.  They beat the Rockets 104-78 in Game 1 of their opening round series, and then throttled the Blazers 118-106 in Game 1 of the second round.  That contest was a bigger blowout than the final score even indicated as the Blazers made a big run in the 4th quarter with the game already decided.

The Warriors have won all three meetings with the Thunder this season.  They won by 15 and 8 points at home, and in overtime on the road.  I believe their small ball approach will shine through in Game 1, and the Thunder will be the team that has to adjust as this series goes on, not Golden State.

Golden State is 11-1 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Golden State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 1 Monday.

15* Heat/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Miami +4.5

The Miami Heat overcame a 3-2 deficit int he first round and won the final two games against the Charlotte Hornets.  After winning Game 6 against the Raptors to force Game 7, I trust the Heat to get the job done today.

Miami is a veteran bunch that has been in these pressure-packed situations before.  Toronto has never been to the Conference Finals, and that pressure will be felt by their players more tonight.  Dwayne Wade and company relish this stage.

From a basketball perspective, I like what the Heat did in Game 6 by going small.  They scored 103 points, which was the most they put up in any game this series.  They'll go small again and it will work here as their small lineup with Wade, Joe Johnson, Goran Dragic, Justice Winslow and Josh McRoberts will be key to victory.

The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 Sunday games.  Miami is 28-12-1 ATS in its last 41 conference semifinal games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 playoff games.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami -4

The Miami Heat get the nod as only 4-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors at home in Game 6.  This veteran squad will take care of business tonight and force a Game 7, just as they did against the Charlotte Hornets last series.

The Heat faced two elimination games against the Hornets in the opening round.  They won Game 6 97-90 in Charlotte before cruising to a 106-73 home victory in Game 7.  They can certainly draw from how they played in those pressure-packed games and use that to get them through this huge Game 6.

The Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Miami is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 Friday games.  The Heat are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 conference semifinal games.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -1.5

The San Antonio Spurs showed a lot of resiliency in Game 3 when they went into Oklahoma City and won 100-96 to gain back home-court advantage.  But after losing Game 5 at home, they now find themselves facing elimination.

This veteran team will not be phased by this situation.  The refs know they owe the Spurs as well after they missed two calls in the final minute that aided the Thunder in a 95-91 victory.  The NBA confirmed those missed calls in the media.  Look for the refs to favor the Spurs in Game 6 to help aid their victory and send this series back to San Antonio.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Heat/Raptors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5

I believe the Toronto Raptors miss Jonas Valanciunas more than the Miami Heat miss Hassan Whiteside.  That was pretty evident in Game 4 as the Heat were able to keep Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan out of the paint.  The duo combined for 6 of 28 from the floor and totaled 19 points.

Valanciunas has been the best player in this series for the Raptors, averaging 18.3 points on 64.9 percent shooting and 12.7 rebounds per contest.  DeRozan has shot just 33 percent and 3 of 19 from beyond the arc this postseason.  Lowry is shooting 33.1 percent overall and 19.7 percent from 3 in the playoffs.

I really trust Dwyane Wade in big moments like this Game 5.  He has been coming through time and time again for the Heat.  Wade has totaled 68 points while making 26 of 49 shots in his last two games.  With this game likely to come down to the wire again, I like the value we are getting with the +5, and I trust in Wade to deliver late once again.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Miami is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 conference semifinals games.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7.5

It's becoming more and more clear that Game 1 of this series was an aberration when the Spurs beat the Thunder by 32 points as everything went right for them.  Every other meeting between these teams this season has pretty much favored the Thunder and close games.

The Thunder are now 4-4 against the Spurs this season with three of their four losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Their adjustments are working as this series progresses.  After having 39 assists in Game 1, the Spurs had 19 assists in each of their next two games, and then just 12 in the Game 4 loss Sunday.

After torching the Thunder for 79 points on 33-of-44 shooting in the first two games of this series, LaMarcus Aldridge has been held to 44 points on 16-of-39 shooting over the past two games.  Tim Duncan is a mere shell of his former self, and the Spurs' big men are really starting to get exposed, including Boris Diaw and David West, who are both too slow.

The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600  Oklahoma City is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +5

The Portland Trail Blazers arguably should have won each of the last two games in this series.  They let a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter slip away in Game 2, but came back strong with a 120-108 victory over the Warriors in Game 3.

It's amazing the level of confidence the Warriors play with at home compared to on the road.  Putting up 120 points on this Golden State team is no small feat.  The Blazers are now 32-13 on their home floor for the season, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.0 points per game.

Stephen Curry is expected to sit Game 4 as well.  He likely will not come back until Game 5 or later, so I expect the Warriors to be needing him for Game 5 with this series tied 2-2.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset again tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Plays against road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Blazers in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will even this series up with the San Antonio Spurs with a victory in Game 4 today.  This is essentially the series right here, and they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want any chance of keeping their NBA title hopes alive.

The Thunder have proven they can hang with the Spurs in their last two games.  They won Game 2 in San Antonio before losing by just 4 at home in Game 3.  They certainly have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with a 34-11 record in Oklahoma City this year.  It will be rocking tonight.

Plays against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.

Oklahoma City is 63-39 ATS in its last 102 games following a home loss.  The Thunder are 74-49 ATS in their last 123 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four.  The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 29-10-2 ATS in its last 41 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value in Game 3 as 5.5-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  I still believe they are the better team in this series, and they certainly want to re-gain home-court advantage after losing it in Game 1's overtime loss.

But they showed huge resilience with their Game 2 overtime victory.  The Raptors trailed late before rallying behind Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas.  And they even overcame a 14-of-26 performance from the free throw line, which is uncharacteristic for them considering they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league.

The Raptors are 32-12 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Miami is 15-29 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  Because they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, the Raptors could not possibly be more undervalued right now.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record with 25 3-pointers in Game 2's blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks.  They have made a whopping 40 3-pointers in the first two games of this series.  Look for the Hawks to make the proper adjustments so they Cavs don't continue beating them from outside.

I like the fact that this is a must-win for the Hawks, who cannot afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory over the Cavaliers tonight, and I believe it will be good enough to get the job done.

The Hawks have gone 30-14 at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs.  They outscored the Celtics by a combined 45 points in their three home games last round.  It would have been more had the Celtics not made a ferocious comeback in Game 1 of that series.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors represent my favorite play of the 2nd round in Game 2 against the Miami Heat tonight.  After losing Game 1 in overtime, this is now a must-win for the Raptors as they simply cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series with the next two games in Miami.

After all, Toronto dominated Miami in the season series, winning each of the final three meetings for a 3-1 lead.  It won by 14 on the road, by 20 and by 8 at home over the Heat.  Look for the Raptors to get back to their domination given the situation, and also for the Heat to relax a little now that they've already won back home-court advantage in this series.

The difference is Game 1 was 3-point shooting.  The Heat shot 8-of-11 (72.7%) from distance, while the Raptors were just 5-of-21 (23.8%).  The Raptors are the much better 3-point shooting team, so look for the roles to be reversed in Game 2 and for the Heat to not be nearly as accurate as they were in Game 1.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscored opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 32-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games following a road win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks arguably should have won Game 1, but they found a way to lose by 11 after leading with just over 4 minutes to go.  They didn't make a field goal in those final four minutes until making a meaningless basket with 18 seconds left.

That effort gave them the belief that they can play with the Cavs, and now in Game 2 I look for them to take this one right down to the wire, likely pulling off the upset.  So I'll take the 7.5 points and run with it here.

They even managed to hang with the Cavs while shooting just 37.9% from the floor in Game 1.  They are a much better shooting team than they displayed in that contest, and nerves may have been a factor.  Look for them to come out with a more relaxed mindset now that this series is officially underway.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Portland +10

The Portland Trail Blazers couldn't have played much worse against the Golden State Warriors in Game 1, yet they only lost by 12 points.  They played Game 1 only 36 hours after closing out the Clippers in their previous series, so they were at a big disadvantage.

But now that the Blazers have had some time to make adjustments behind one of the most underrated head coaches in the league in Terry Stotts, they will be much better prepared for Game 2 tonight.  Look for them to take the Curry-less Warriors down to the wire this time.

Portland is 17-8 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  The Blazers are 29-16 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Blazers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were absolutely embarrassed in Game 1 of this series, losing to the Spurs 92-124 as absolutely nothing went their way.  Look for them to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 2 to counter a couple things that caught them by surprise in Game 1, including Kawhi Leonard guarding Russell Westbrook.

After all, this was a closely-contested season series during the regular season, so that 32-point blowout was an aberration.  These teams split the season series 2-2 with the Thunder only losing by 4 and 8 in their two trips to San Antonio.

The Spurs simply shot lights out in Game 1, which isn't going to happen again.  They shot 60.7% from the field and 60% from 3-point range.  LaMarcus Aldridge was a ridiculous 18-of-23, while Kawhi Leonard was 10-of-13 and Danny Green was 6-of-7.  A repeat of that would be virtually impossible.

Plays against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Spurs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Monday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Indiana +6

The way the Pacers have played in these last three games with their season on the line, I simply trust them more in Game 7 than the Raptors.  I'll gladly back them as 6-point underdogs in a game that they will likely win outright tonight.

The Pacers should have won each of the last three games, and they won two of them in blowout fashion.  They won by 17 and 18 at home in Game 4 and Game 6, respectively.  But they blew a huge fourth quarter lead to lose 102-99 in Game 5.  They could have folded in Game 6 after that meltdown, but I love the resilience they showed.

The Pacers have clearly figured something out offensively.  They shot 47.1% in Game 4, 45.2% in Game 5 and 46.1% in Game 6.  The Raptors, meanwhile, shot 36.5% in Game 4, 40.2% in Game 5, and 36.7% in Game 6.  So the Pacers have clearly figured something out defensively as well.

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Raptors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Indians is 20-7 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a real threat to the Spurs to win this series.  They might be the biggest sleepers in the West.  Everyone is talking about the Warriors and Spurs, which leaves a chip on the shoulder of the Thunder.

The Thunder actually went 2-2 against the Spurs this season with one of their two losses coming by 4 points.  In Game 1 of this series, the Thunder are ready to make a statement and let the Spurs know this is going to be a long series.  I like them getting 6.5 points as a result.

The Thunder are 23-9 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996.  The Spurs are 3-11 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Thunder are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 Saturday games.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami +2

The Miami Heat are a veteran bunch who will not be intimidated by an elimination game on the road.  Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson have all been here before, and I look for them to rally the troops and force a Game 7 with a win tonight.

After shooting 18 of 34 from beyond the arc in the first two games of this series, the Heat have shot just 33.3 percent from distance after going 5-of-18 in Game 5.  That cold shooting is unlikely to continue, and these players know that they just need to stay the course and have a little better fortune late in games after losing the last two contest by a combined 6 points.

"I think we've got the looks we've wanted in the series," Miami guard Josh Richardson said. "We've just got to stay aggressive. We can't play any different because it hasn't fallen our way."

The Hornets haven't won a playoff series in 14 years, and this young group isn't ready to do it tonight.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Hawks/Celtics Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 198

This series continues to get lower-scoring as it goes on.  Three of the last four games between the Celtics and Hawks have seen less than 200 combined points, including 161 in Game 2 and 193 in Game 5.

These teams are so familiar with one another by now that points are so hard to come by.  Both teams are struggling to score the basketball as the Celtics have shot less than 38% in three of the five games, while the Hawks have shot less than 41% in three of the five.

If you don't count overtime in Game 4, then these teams have averaged well less than 198 combined points at the end of regulation in this series.  They have averaged 191 combined points at the end of regulation in the five points, so that alone shows that there's at least 7 points of value on the UNDER here.

Atlanta is 13-1 to the UNDER in its last 14 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Atlanta is 20-6 to the UNDER in its last 26 when leading in a playoff series.  Boston is 22-7 to the UNDER vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat will roll in Game 5 at home to regain control of this series.  The home team has won all four meetings, including two blowout victories by the Heat with a 123-91 triumph in Game 1 and a 115-103 beat down in Game 2.

Dwyane Wade was in college the last time the Charlotte Hornets won a road playoff game, while Kemba Walker was still in grade school.  Charlotte is 2-19 in its last 21 trips to Miami, including playoffs.  The Heat have shot 54.7 percent from the floor and averaged 112 points in four meetings at AmericanAirlines Arena this season.

The Heat are 13-2 in their last 15 postseason home games with their only two losses coming to San Antonio in the 2014 NBA Finals.  Charlotte has dropped nine straight playoff games on the road with its last road victory coming in the opening round back in 2002.

Charlotte is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games following two consecutive wins against division rivals.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5

The Toronto Raptors are ready to win their first playoff series in a long time.  They have the team to do it this year, and this all-important Game 5 at home will help them accomplish their goal.  Look for the Raptors to roll tonight.

They have been the better team in this series despite poor performances from their two best players in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.  Lowry is averaging 15.5 points on 32.2 percent shooting, while DeRozan is at 13.3 points and 29.6 percent in the series.  Just imagine what they'll be able to do once these two get going.

DeRozan ranked third in the league in free-throw attempts during the regular season, but he has only attempted 15 in the series compared to 36 for Paul George.  Head coach Paul Casey has made a point of pointing out the poor officiating, and now I look for the Raptors to get more calls, especially playing at home in Game 5.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Tuesday.

 20* Heat/Hornets Game 4 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets ended a 12-game playoff losing streak with their 96-80 win over the Heat in Game 3.  Now that they have that huge monkey off their back, I look for them to relax a little and play another great game tonight as they are much looser than they have been in the playoffs for a long time.

We saw the same thing happen with the Raptors and Celtics.  The Raptors ended a 7-game playoff skid with a win in Game 2, and proceeded to play their best game of the series in Game 3 in a 101-85 road win.  The Celtics ended a 7-game playoff losing streak with a Game 3 victory over the Hawks, and then came back and won Game 4 in overtime as well.

Charlotte made a nice adjustment by giving 7-footer Frank Kaminsky more minutes and more touches on the block in Game 3.  Kaminsky had played less than 20 points in each of the first two games, but logged 34 minutes in Game 3 as he started alongside Al Jefferson.  That combination worked and I look for head coach Steve Clifford to go back to it.

Charlotte is one of the best home teams in the NBA with a 31-11 record at home, and it has won four of its last five home meetings with the Heat.  Miami has lost six of its last eight road games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hornets are 22-7 ATS in home games vs. teams with winning records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Hornets in Game 4 Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics really believe they can come back and win this series.  They gained a lot of confidence from their Game 3 win over the Hawks.  They led that game by double-digits for most of the first half, but saw their lead completely vanish before rallying to win it in the 4th quarter behind 42 points from Isaiah Thomas.

The good news is that Thomas is probable and not expected to get suspended from his hit on Dennis Schroeder.  He is the key to this team and clearly figured something out in Game 3 as the Celtics made the proper adjustments on how he should attack this defense.

The Celtics are 20-3 in their last 23 home games, a stretch which saw them sport the fourth-best home record in the NBA in the second half of the season.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today.

Atlanta is 16-34 ATS in its last 50 road playoffs games.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  It is winning by an average of 11.6 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

The loss to the Mavericks in Game 2 really woke up the Thunder.  They won't let it happen again, and I expect Game 4 to play out just as Game 1 and Game 3 did, with the end result being a double-digit blowout victory for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven meetings with Dallas.  It has won four of the last six meetings by 13 points or more.  It won by 38 points at home in Game 1 and by 29 points on the road in Game 3.  It took a 33.7% shooting effort as a team for the Thunder to let the Mavs hang around and steal one in Game 2.  That's not going to happen again.

Plays against home teams (DALLAS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 3 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets were quietly one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They went 30-11 on their home floor, and facing a must-win in Game 3 after falling behind 0-2, I'll back them to get a win and cover against the Miami Heat tonight.

There's no question that this was a one-sided series in Miami.  The Heat shot 57.6% while scoring 123 points in Game 1, and 57.9% while scoring 115 points in Game 2.  It's safe to say that they aren't going to continue this torrid shooting, especially since most of their offense comes from 1-on-1 stuff.

"You have to look at how they're scoring," he said. "They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwyane Wade's got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody."

Look for Clifford to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 3 that will turn this series around for the Hornets and have them avoid their 13th straight playoff loss.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Hornets in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

It's now or never for the Boston Celtics after falling behind 0-2 in this series to the Atlanta Hawks.  Look for them to come out with a big sense of urgency and to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3, which is their first home game of the series.

The Celtics have dug themselves early holes in each of the first two games.  They shot 23.1 percent and fell behind 17 at halftime before rallying to lose by 1 in Game 1.  They then turned in the lowest-scoring first quarter in playoff history and fell behind 7-24 after the first period in Game 2.

Behind the help of their home fans, look for the Celtics to come out attacking from the opening tip.  A better start is going to help give this team confidence as they try and end a 7-game playoff losing streak.  After all, they are 19-3 at home since January 13, which is the fourth-best home mark in that span.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 16-33 ATS in its last 49 road playoff games.  Boston is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games after scoring 75 points or less in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

20* Raptors/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1

A massive weight has been lifted from the Toronto Raptors' shoulders.  They put an end to a 7-game playoff losing streak with their 98-87 win over the Pacers in Game 2.  Now that they have that monkey off their back, look for it to free them up as they get back to playing the way they played during the regular season, which was the second-best team in the East.

I feel like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan felt that weight the most because they actually haven't played well in the first two games of this series.  Lowry has shot 7 for 26 while fell All-Star DeRozan has gone 10 for 37.  It's been the role players who have played great for the Raptors.  But I have a sneaky suspicion that both Lowry and DeRozan are going to go off now.

The Pacers simply do not have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas down low, either.  He had a franchise playoff-record 19 rebounds in Game 1, and he followed that up with a playoff career-high 23 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2.  He is really the X-factor in this series.

Toronto has the third-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17 away from home.  The Raptors are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 meetings with the Pacers, including an impressive 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine trips to Indiana.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit +10.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value once again as double-digit underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I was on them in Game 1 with success, and I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons proved that their 3-1 season series win over the Cavaliers was no fluke by hanging with them for four quarters in Game 1 in a 101-106 loss as 11-point dogs.  They actually led that game 58-53 at halftime and shot 50.7% for the game.

Detroit simply matches up well with Cleveland.  The Cavs have no answer for Andre Drummond, and the Pistons have the wings in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James and keep him in check.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 150-95 (61.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 26-54-1 ATS in their last 81 vs. NBA Central opponents.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 199

Game 1 between Charlotte and Miami went well over the posted total of 198.5 in a 123-91 victory for the Heat.  They simply could not miss from the floor as they shot 57.6%, including 50% from 3-point range.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again in Game 2.

Charlotte will make the proper adjustments defensively to hold the Heat closer to the 100-point mark, and likely below it.  After all, these were two of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  The Heat ranked 7th in defensive efficiency while the Hornets were 9th.  The Heat also ranked just 25th in pace during the regular season.

Having two days off in between games will also make those defensive adjustments stick more.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Hornets last 24 games playing on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 games playing on 2 days rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Boston +6.5

After coming back from 17 points down at halftime against the Atlanta Hawks to lose 101-102 in Game 1, the Boston Celtics clearly figured something out in the second half offensively.  They scored 67 points after intermission, and they'll use what they learned to try and pull the upset in Game 2.

''We're going to have to just continue to throw different bodies at (Teague) and make it as difficult as possible," Stevens said after Sunday's practice. "We're playing small anyways, so you might have to go even deeper into that. We'll look at it and figure that out over the next 48 hours.''

Stevens is concerned about stopping Jeff Teague, who had 23 points and 12 assists in the opener.  And without Avery Bradley, that job will be more difficult, but I believe they'll be up to the task.  They went 3-3 without Bradley this season, and one of the wins was a 106-93 victory over Atlanta on November 13.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 34-21 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Houston +13.5

I like the mindset of the Houston Rockets coming into Game 2 of this series with the Golden State Warriors.  They clearly weren't happy with the way they played in Game 1, especially in the first half as they dug themselves a hole that they simply could not climb out of.

"Move our bodies a little bit more," James Harden said. "Everything that happened [Saturday] was because of us. Obviously they're a good team, but we can improve so much more and that's what we we're excited about and we're definitely excited about [Monday's] game."

Houston made 297 passes in the loss, leading to 16 assists and four secondary assists. Golden State made 330 passes, leading to 26 assists and 10 secondary assists.

"You always got to talk about your habits," he said. "All the things you want to do, if you don't talk about them then you won't do them. So you got to continue to talk about them. You got to continue to preach it, whatever your system is, on either side of the ball you got to continue to preach it. You're going to have moments you don't do it, for whatever reason, but you continue to preach it and from there you hope that will do it."

I also like the fact that Stephen Curry suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 and is questionable to play in Game 2.  No question the Warriors are seriously considering resting him, which would be a huge help for the Rockets.  Even if he's limited it's going to help the Rockets either way.

Houston is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons, 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years, and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 games after committing 23 or more turnovers.  Plays on road underdogs (HOUSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 73-41 (64%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5

The Miami Heat are a team built for the playoffs with Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson being two of the best 1-on-1 players in the game.  They can break down a defense when all else fails, and that is an advantage that they'll have over the more team-oriented Charlotte Hornets this entire series, including in Game 1.  Hassan Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA, and Goran Dragic has really upped his game down the stretch at the point guard position.

I really like the Heat here as only 4.5-point favorites, making them the smallest home favorites of any team in Game 1 of the eight opening series.  That fact alone makes me believe there's some value, especially considering the Heat are 28-13 at home this season, while the Hornets are 18-23 on the road.

Miami is 22-4 SU at home against Charlotte in the last 26 meetings.  It is outscoring the Hornets by roughly 10 points per game during this stretch as well.  The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 Sunday games.  Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +11

The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply getting too much respect as the No. 1 seed in the East.  That comes with having Lebron James on your team, but they have no business being 11-point favorites over the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Detroit actually won the season series with Cleveland 3-1, outscoring the Cavaliers by 1.75 points per game on average, and winning both road meetings outright.  They match up very favorably with the Cavaliers.  Cleveland's only real answer to All-Star center Andre Drummond's size and physical dominance is benched big man Timofey Mozgov, who has been horrible all season.

The Pistons have several versatile forwards in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James.  Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pople is a nightmare matchup for Kyrie Irving as well.  And Reggie Jackson is quickly becoming a star in Detroit and one of the most underrated points guards in the league.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Cavaliers are 26-53-1 ATS in their last 80 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Game 1 Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +5.5

I expect the Boston Celtics to give the Atlanta Hawks a run for their money in this series.  It starts with Game 1 as they are 5.5-point underdogs here in a game I believe they are likely to win outright.

After winning the first meeting this season by 13 points at home, the Celtics have lost their last three meetings with the Hawks.  That places them in triple-revenge mode here, and I believe the Hawks will actually relax knowing that they have beaten the Celtics three straight times.

Boston is 54-36 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +13

I believe the Golden State Warriors are in for a bit of a hangover in Game 1 of this series with the Houston Rockets.  They just set the NBA record for wins in a season with 73 by winning their final four games, and that grueling stretch to finish will take a little out of them in Game 1.  It will be enough for the Rockets to stay within this 13-point spread.

Don't look now, but the Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They were in must-win games down the stretch, and they dominated by going 3-0 in their final three games with wins over the Lakers (by 20), Timberwolves (by 24) and Kings (by 35).  They won their last three games by an average of 26.3 points per game.

The Rockets actually played the Warriors reasonably tough during the regular season.  They lost all four games, but three of the four losses came by 14 points or less.  I simply believe given this tough situation for the Warriors and how well the Rockets are playing right now that 13 points is too much.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 149-93 (61.6%) ATS since 1996.  Houston is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Bulls OVER 208

Defense will not be a priority tonight when two teams who eliminated from playoff contention in the 76ers and Bulls meet up in Chicago.  Look for a high-scoring affair from these teams today as a result.

The Bulls are set up right now to play in high-scoring games due to missing Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol.  Fred Hoiberg has had to go with smaller lineups, but also lineups that are more optimal offensively.  It has worked as the Bulls have won back-to-back games over Cleveland and New Orleans while averaging 113.0 points per game and giving up 109.0 points per game.

The 76ers have actually played great offensively here of late.  They have scored 102 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they are still a mess defensively, giving up 100 or more in 10 of their last 11 contests.  They have given up 122, 109 and 109 in their last three, respectively.

These teams have combined for 226 and 211 points in their last two meetings this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams as well.

Chicago is 14-3 OVER against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Chicago is 9-1 OVER vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season over the last two years.  The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a 0.5-game behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 5 seed in the West.  They want to get that seed, and they are now 7.5-point dogs to the Clippers Tuesday in a game they need to have.  I'll take the points, especially with the Clippers locked into the No. 4 seed.

The Grizzlies are obviously still trying to finish out the season on the right note as they just lost to the Warriors by 1 as 13-point dogs.  They have had two days off since that loss, so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Clippers tonight.

Memphis is 23-13 ATS off one or more consecutive losses this season.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -5.5

The Utah Jazz are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.  They are one game ahead of the Houston Rockets for the No. 8 seed, and one game behind the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 7 seed.  In their home finale, with what's at stake, look for the Jazz to take care of business in a big way tonight.

The Mavericks are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without Jose Barea again tonight, just as they were last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after falling 91-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days as well.  The Mavs are one of the oldest teams in the league and aren't equipped to handle these situations well.

Yes, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but this will only be their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are coming off a 100-84 blowout win at Denver yesterday that required little effort.  They will be the fresher team, and their much younger legs are more suited to handle this situation.

The Jazz are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for right now.  They are currently one game ahead of both the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat for the No. 3 seed in the East.  They can grab a stranglehold on not only the No. 3 seed, but also their second straight Southeast Division title with a win tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers look disinterested here down the stretch and just ready for the playoffs.  They have lost back-to-back games with a 109-123 road loss to Indiana, and a 102-105 road loss to Chicago in a game the Lebron James actually played in.  There's a good chance they rest James tonight like they did against Indiana, though.

Few teams are playing as well as the Hawks right now.  They are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall and are coming off two huge wins over both Toronto and Boston by a combined 19 points, two of the top contenders in the East.  Now they want revenge from a 108-110 overtime loss to Cleveland on April 1 just 10 days ago.

Plays on underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Cavaliers are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 Monday games.  Roll with the Hawks Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on Golden State +5.5

The Golden State Warriors want the 73-9 record that would give them the most wins in a single season in NBA history.  They only have to go 2-0 in their final two games to get it, so they are extremely motivated for that record right now.

I like their chances of upsetting the San Antonio Spurs on the road here.  Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Warriors as underdogs, but that is the opportunity we've been given today, and we'll take advantage.

Greg Popovich has said he won't rest his starters against the Warriors even though the Spurs are locked in to the No. 2 seed, but I wouldn't be surprised if he limits their minutes in this one with the playoffs just around the corner.  He has also stated that the 41-0 home record the Spurs are in search of is meaningless.

The Warriors are 23-12 ATS when playing on 0 days' rest over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* T'Wolves/Blazers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to battle here down the stretch.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, and I look for them to give the Portland Trail Blazers a run for their money here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Blazers.  They are 0-3 against Portland this season, but a closer look shows that all three games were decided by 6 points or less.  They have been decided by 3, 6 and 5 points, and this 8.5-point spread certainly has a great chance of coming into play here.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Timberwolves are 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Phoenix Suns -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have made backers a nice chunk of change here down the stretch.  They are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.  That showed last time out as the Suns won 124-115 in Houston as 12-point road dogs to really crush the Rockets' playoff hopes.

New Orleans is the most depleted team in the league.  Its list of injuries is almost laughable at this point.  But give the Pelicans credit for continuing to fight.  They have actually gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, but that simply has them overvalued coming into this game against the Suns.

However, that long list of injuries will take its toll tonight.  The Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  The Pelicans simply aren't equipped to handle it right now with their short bench.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah Jazz -12

The Utah Jazz are 1.5 games up on the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They look to  take another step forward toward reaching their goal of making the postseason with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The Jazz have been playing very well of late, going 10-4 in their last 14 games overall with each of  their last three victories coming by 13 points or more.  They have won five of their last seven at home with their only losses coming to Golden State (OT) and San Antonio (by 2).

The Clippers are going to make the Jazz' job much easier tonight.  That's because they are resting all their starters, including Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Wesley Johnson.  Plus, Jeff Green and Austin Rivers are questionable.  I see no way they can compete with the Jazz tonight considering what Utah has to play for.

The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Utah.  Roll with the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

It's safe to say the Detroit Pistons are highly motivated right now.  A win Friday and they would clinch their first playoff berth in seven years.  Look for the Pistons to roll the Washington Wizards at home.

Washington is pretty much eliminated from postseason contention.  It would have to win out to make the playoffs, and then get Detroit to lose its last three while moving past nine-place Chicago to return to the postseason.  Plus, John Wall is hurt right now and may not play.

The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Pistons are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers will clinch a playoff spot with a win today over the Toronto Raptors.  The motivation from missing the playoffs by one game last year is real with this team, and they are not about to waste this opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are already locked into the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have nothing to play for, and after losing in Atlanta last night, they will be resting their starters today.  That will make the goal of clinching a playoff spot a lot easier for the Pacers tonight.

"I think we're playing well at the right time," said George, who is 8 of 19 from 3-point range in his last three games. "It just has to continue. We all feel great about this win and the streak we're on, winning in our past three games. It's about capitalizing on this moment now."  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an overtime road win against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  Now they are unlikely to even show up tonight, and I fully expect them to get blown out of the building.

The Kings have shown up at home all season and will continue to do so tonight.  They clearly have not packed it in as they are actually playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Indeed, they are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Adding to the Kings' motivation is the fact that they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves after losing each of the first three meetings this season.  Having already beaten the Kings three times, I find it hard to believe the Timberwolves will be motivated for this game at all, especially after just beating the Warriors.

Minnesota is 4-18 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers want to get the No. 5 seed so they can avoid Oklahoma City in the first ground.  They have a great chance of doing it since they trail the Grizzlies by just 0.5 games.  Memphis is in free-fall mode right now and won't be able to hang on.

So the Blazers have a lot to play for, while the Thunder are already locked into the No. 3 seed.  This would be the perfect time for OKC head coach Billy Donovan to rest his starters.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days, so don't be surprised to see him do just that.

Either way, I like the Blazers here because they have won seven straight at Moda Center and 16 of 18 at home overall.  They have outscored the opposition by 13.7 points per game in their last six there, limiting opponents to 97.8 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting during that stretch.

The Blazers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Portland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic have gotten healthy down the stretch and are playing great basketball because of it.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points on the road to Milwaukee.  Their four wins have come by 22, 34, 20 and 12 points.

Now the Magic come into this game on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days after an 89-107 loss in Miami yesterday.  This is just an awful spot for the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-9 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on 2 days' rest.  These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are 2.5 games ahead of the 9th place Chicago Bulls, and a win tonight would certainly help.  They are motivated because they missed the playoffs by one game last year and don't want it to happen again.

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game way overvalued due to having won four straight.  But with a 3.5-game lead on the Toronto Raptors with four games to play for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, this would be the perfect time for Tyronn Lue to rest his starters.

And rest them he likely will given the situation.  Indeed, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee yesterday.  It would be foolish for him to play his starters right now given their spot in the standings, and this awful rest situation.  That's why the Pacers are favored in this game.

Plays against road teams (CLEVELAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15*  T'Wolves/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +15.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday night as they chase down the Bulls' record for wins in a season.  Now they are being asked to lay 15.5-points to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, which is simply too much.

The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, so they aren't handling their lofty expectations very well.  Adding to that tonight is the fact that the Warriors will likely be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Thursday and not give the Timberwolves the attention they deserve.

That has been the case in this series as the T'Wolves have actually played the Warriors very tough recently.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or less and by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Plus, the T'Wolves come in way undervalued due to going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, but they will get up for the Warriors tonight.

Minnesota is 16-4 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They just lost two weeks ago on March 21 to the Warriors 104-109 as 12.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Golden State is 2-14 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have no business being this heavily favored over the Denver Nuggets on the road Tuesday night.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they essentially have nothing to play for right now.

That mindset is clearly setting in for the Thunder right now, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to both the Pistons and Rockets on the road, and barely beat the short-handed Clippers 119-117 at home.  They simply cannot be trusted right now, and they've been overvalued on the road all season.  The Thunder are just 12-23 ATS in all road games.

The Nuggets are always more competitive at home with a 17-21 SU record.  I believe they are undervalued coming into this one due to having lost four of their last five.  They play the Thunder tough at home, going 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver.

Oklahoma City is 3-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Denver is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this year.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz are showing solid value as home underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs today.  They are fighting for their playoff lives right now as they are currently the No. 8 seed in the West, but just one game ahead of the 9th place Rockets.

The Jazz are playing nearly as well as anyone in the Western Conference right now.  They are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Warriors in overtime in a game they should have won.  I'm very confident backing them as dogs here with the way they're playing.

San Antonio backers are crazy given their situation.  They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for.  You know Greg Popovich is famous for resting his starters without telling anyone, and that could be the case here.  Plus, the Spurs could be looking ahead to their road game against Golden State on Thursday.

Utah is 27-7 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 meetings.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

Currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind both the Pistons and Pacers for the final two playoff spots, the Bulls are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  I like their chances of picking up a win today against the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Due to their massive injury list, the Grizzlies have been in free-fall mode.  They are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, and they have actually lost six straight coming in to this one.  They are limping into the playoffs with no signs of turning it around any time soon.

The Bulls beat the Grizzlies 98-85 at home in their first meeting this season.  They have also won each of their last two trips to Memphis outright as underdogs.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.

The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  They have recent huge road wins over both the Pacers and Rockets while winning two of their last three overall coming in. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Villanova/UNC Championship Game No-Brainer on North Carolina -2

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been a money-printing machine for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them nearly every game since the start of the tournament.  They have delivered in a big way by going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

While I was on Villanova against Oklahoma, I believe this is not a good matchup at all for the Wildcats.  Their one weakness is a lack of depth on the interior.  Now they're going to be going up against the team with the best interior play in the country in the Tar Heels.

Daniel Ochefu (6-foot-11) is the only player in the Wildcats' rotation taller than 6-7.  UNC has made a living in the paint an on the offensive glass with Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.  In fact, they have rebounded nearly 50 percent of their own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament, which is a massive advantage.

Villanova is 4-12 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th place Houston Rockets, so they still have a lot of work to do if they want to make the postseason.

The Mavs have stepped up their game down the stretch given what's at stake.  They've gone 3-0 on their last three games overall, which includes road wins over both the Nuggets and Pistons.  They have really picked it up defensively, giving up 89 or fewer points in the three consecutive wins.

The Minnesota Timberwolves look disinterested and ready for their season to be over.  After losing by 20 at home to the Clippers, the Wolves lost on the road by 13 to the Jazz in their last two games.  Look for the Mavs to continue taking advantage of the poor play of the Wolves here of late.

The Mavs are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with the Timberwolves.  They are going for the 4-game season sweep here today.  Dallas has won three in a row in Minnesota and is 14-3 there in the last nine years.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* UNC/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on North Carolina -9

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been an absolute money make for me since the start of the ACC Tournament.  I've been on them virtually every game since, and they haven't let me down once.  So I'm a bit biased, but at the same time I've said all along that they are the best team in the country, and my pick to win the tournament.

That being said, I still view this game from an unbiased view.  While the price (-9) is a little high, I still feel like the Tar Heels will get the job done by double-digits against Syracuse and get us the cover Saturday.  Here are a few reasons why.

What I love most about the Tar Heels is that they have the best interior game in the country.  Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks for the best trio of big men in the land.  They do all the dirty work, and they consistently get easy buckets inside.

In fact, they have rebounded a mind-blowing 46 percent of the Tar Heels' own misses on offense in the NCAA Tournament.  So, essentially the get an offensive rebound on nearly 50 percent of possessions.  That's unheard of, and it leads to extra possessions that other teams simply don't get.

UNC has scored an absurd 1.33 points per possession over its last four games.  Marcus Paige has attempted 66 percent of his shots from the 3-point line in the tournament, and he's made them at a 48 percent clip.  Joel Berry II is a sharpshooter as well and one of the most underrated guards in the country.  This is the best starting lineup in the land, and the Tar Heels also have one of the deepest benches to compliment it.

Give Syracuse credit for making the Final Four, but its run stops here.  In the Orange's wins over Gonzaga and Virginia, they were outplayed for close to 70 of the 80 minutes.  But they got desperate late and turned the games into chaos, abandoning the 2-3 zone.  It worked against both of those teams, but it's not going to work against Carolina.

The Tar Heels have the big men who can hit that shot from roughly 12-15 feet in the middle of the 2-3 zone, so they are going to torch Syracuse's defense all game long.  If the Orange go back to pressing like they did against Gonzaga and Virginia, the Tar Heels prefer to play up-tempo anyways, and they'll torch them there as well.

UNC relies on the 3-point shot the least of any of the four teams remaining.  They only shoot 20 percent of their shots from distance.  They swept the season series with the Orange despite only shooting 22 percent from 3-point range.  A little betting shooting from distance, coupled with dominant inside play, and this one will be a blowout as expected.

Syracuse is not a good shooting team.  In its last two games, it has only shot 36 percent from the floor.  The only saving grace was its work at the free throw line, which saw the Orange convert 34 of 41 attempts the past two games.  An off night shooting will give them no chance of competing with the Tar Heels, and that is likely to occur once again.

UNC is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  UNC is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games.  The Orange are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -10.5

Given their standing in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers are in need of a win today against the Philadelphia 76ers.  That's why they will not take them lightly right now.

The Pacers are currently the No. 8 seed in the East, only one game ahead of the 9th place Bulls.  They missed the playoffs by one game last year, but they aren't going to let it happen again.

The 76ers have lost 11 straight coming in.  While they have been a cash cow on the road of late, they have been horrible at home.  The 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, time and time again getting blown out.

The 76ers are also in a tough spot here as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Philly is 0-11 ATS as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points this season.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

25* Villanova/Oklahoma College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova -2

The Villanova Wildcats want revenge from a 78-55 loss to Oklahoma in Hawaii back in December.  They were already going to be motivated because it's the Final Four, but any extra edge they can get helps, and that will fuel their fire.

But the Wildcats made just 4-of-32 attempts from 3-point range against the Sooners that day, so they obviously weren't going to win shooting 12.5 percent from distance.  This team has been on fire in the month of March, and they'll continue hot shooting that against the Sooners in the Final Four.

The Wildcats are averaging 82.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 55 percent overall and 46 percent from 3-point range.  They have been one of the best defensive teams in the country all season, too, allowing just 63.6 points per game.  They are the definition of "team" basketball, and I'll gladly take that over Oklahoma, which is way too reliant on Buddy Hield.

Villanova has shown an ability to outscore opponents with its 92 points on 59 possessions against Miami in the Sweet 16.  Then it showed it could grind it out with a 64-59 win over Kansas, which was arguably the most impressive defensive performance of the tournament so far.  That win over Kansas is important because the Jayhawks were the best team in the Big 12 this season, and they even beat Oklahoma twice.

No question the entire focus is going to be on stopping Buddy Hield, and you can bet the Wildcats will make someone else try and beat them.  It worked for West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament as the Mountaineers held Hield to 1-of-8 shooting.  Look for the Wildcats to deploy a similar tactic in this one.

This game could certainly come down to free throws, and if it does, I like Villanova's chances there as well.  The Wildcats have shot 85 percent from the line in the tournament, including 95 percent over their last two games.  Both Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson have yet to miss in the tournament, and Ryan Arcidiacono is 13-of-14 (93 percent).  Against Kansas, they were outscored from the 3-point line, and both teams hit the same number of 2-pointers (17).  Free throws made the difference.

Villanova is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  The Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +12

The Boston Celtics are still fighting for home-court advantage in the first round in the East.  There are only 1.5 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, but unfortunately the Celtics are in the 6th position right now.  They will keep pushing to try and get home court in the first round.

Of course, they'll already be motivated playing the defending champion Warriors.  That's especially the case after losing in double-overtime to the Warriors at home in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics want revenge, and now they come in way undervalued as 12-point dogs here due to losing two straight.

Yes, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they have thrived in this situation because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  Indeed, the Celtics are an incredible 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 games when playing on 0 days' rest.

The Warriors have been extremely overvalued here down the stretch due to their pursuit of the Bulls' record.  They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they shouldn't have covered against Utah on Wednesday.  They trailed most the way and ended up covering in overtime as 4.5-point favorites.

Boston is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Golden State with each decided by 5 points or less.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS off three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 3-11 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The underdog is 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a great spot tonight.  They are one of the most rested teams in the NBA right now as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That helped them end a 5-game losing streak with an 11-point victory over the Suns on Wednesday, and now they'll be ready to go again tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Magic come in way overvalued due to three straight blowout victories over the Bulls, Nets and Pacers.  They are ripe for a letdown tonight, especially given the rest disadvantage they're in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 12-2 SU in the last 14 meetings.  The Bucks are 27-10 SU & 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home meetings with the Magic.  Milwaukee has gone 22-15 at home this season, while Orlando is just 12-27 on the road.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to make the playoffs.  They are currently tied with the Utah Jazz for the 7th & 8th spots in the West, but only a half-game ahead of 9th place Houston.  They still have some work to do, but have shown some guts with back-to-back wins over Denver and New York.

The task gets a little tougher tonight against Detroit, who the Mavs want revenge against for losing 96-102 at hom on March 9 less than a month ago.  The Pistons clearly come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games with only two of those coming against playoff contenders, and one was against a short-handed Thunder team.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS In the last four meetings.  The Mavs are 4-0 SU in their last four trips to Detroit, winning by 11, 11, 3 and 14 points.  Getting out on the road will help the Mavs keep focus on the task at hand here again tonight in a game they desperately need.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games overall.  The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

20* Bulls/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

In 9th place in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls have no margin for error going forward.  They are 2 games behind 8th place Indiana and 2.5 games behind 7th place Detroit.  They will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way, especially tonight against the Rockets.

That was the case on Tuesday when they came through with a huge 98-96 road win at Indiana thanks to Jimmy Butler's game-winner.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back after a 2-point loss to Atlanta on Monday, so they showed a ton of heart and guts in winning that contest.

''We needed this win,'' Butler said. ''It was big for us to get a win here on the road against a playoff team. Hopefully this starts a trend for these last eight or nine games.''

The Rockets are being overvalued here because they are coming off a 106-100 win at Cleveland.  But the Cavaliers were playing without Lebron James, so they were supposed to win that game.  And it continued a trend of close games for the Rockets, whose last five games have all been decided by 6 points or less.  There's a very good chance the +5.5 comes into play tonight.

The Bulls beat the Rockets 108-100 at home in their first meeting this season on March 5.  Pau Gasol, Butler and Derrick Rose combined to shoot 51.2 percent for 69 points, 31 rebounds and 21 assists to help Chicago to its third win in the last four games of this series.

Houston is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 10-19 ATS as a home favorite this season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  They are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference with a 36-38 record on the season.  They are only a half-game behind 8th place Houston and one game behind 7th-place Utah.

Now the Mavericks get to take on the New York Knicks, who certainly aren't playing for anything but pride.  That has shown, too, as the Knicks have gone 2-5 in their last seven games.  Their most recent game was the most concerning as they lost 91-99 at New Orleans, which is playing a bunch of D-League players right now.

The Mavs have won four straight meetings with the Knicks.  The last three victories have all come by 7 points or more as well, and that trend should continue here tonight considering the Mavs simply need this game more.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.