20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in college basketball, but somehow they continue to go under the radar.  They should be much more than a 4-point favorite tonight against Illinois in this showdown inside Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats quietly went 29-5 last year and won the Big East regular season title with a 16-2 record.  With four starters back from that team, they are arguably better in 2014-15.  They have opened the season a perfect 8-0 and are currently the No. 7 ranked team in the country.

The four returning starters are Darrun Hilliard (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Daniel Ochefu (5.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg).  What has been amazing about this start is that the Wildcats have been much more balanced this year and have gotten contributions elsewhere.

Dylan Ennis (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg this year) leads the team in scoring.  Hilliard (10.5 ppg) and Pinkston (8.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) haven't had to do as much.  Kris Jenkins (9.1 ppg) and Josh Hart (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) have joined Ennis as key contributors that maybe not many expected they would be coming into the season.

The Wildcats have not only played cupcakes, either.  Their wins over VCU (77-53) and Michigan (60-55) on neutral courts prove that they are for real.  They are scoring 75.4 points per game and allowing just 55.7 points per contest, outscoring the opposition by nearly 20 points per game on the season.

Illinois was expected to be improved in the Big Ten this season after going 20-15 last year.  That's because they returned all five starters from that squad.  Unfortunately for them, Tracy Abrams (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) suffered a season-ending knee injury in November and is out for the season, giving them essentially four returning starters.

Rayvonte Rice (15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg last year) is their best returning starter by far.  But Nnanna Egwu (6.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Malcolm Hill (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Kendrick Nunn (6.2 ppg) are counted as their other three returning starters, which is not very impressive in my book.

Illinois has gotten off to a solid 7-1 start this season, but it has come against mostly weak competition.  Its seven wins have come against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor and American.  Its lone loss came in its only true road game in a 61-70 setback at Miami, which is the best team it has played yet.  Villanova is better than Miami.

Villanova is a sensational 44-19 ATS in its last 63 games overall.  The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +9

This is a home-and-home situation tonight between the Celtics and Wizards.  I backed the Celtics are 4-point underdogs with success yesterday as they beat the Wizards 101-93 at home.

I know that the Wizards will be out for revenge tonight in this back-to-back situation, but how many points is revenge worth?  I don't believe it's worth as many points as the oddsmakers have put into this spread.  Asking the Wizards to win by double-digits to cover the spread is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the way the Celtics are playing right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Detroit (109-102), LA Lakers (113-96) and Washington (101-93).  I believe the Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Boston has played a pretty brutal schedule during its 7-11 start and has several close losses against playoff teams along the way.  Seven of its 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including road losses to Dallas (113-118) and Atlanta (105-109), as well as home losses to Toronto (107-110), Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Portland (88-94) and Chicago (102-109).

Washington, on the other hand, is way overvalued do to its 13-6 start to the season.  Its schedule has been much easier.  Its 13 wins have come against Orlando (twice), Milwaukee (twice), New York, Indiana (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, LA Lakers and Denver.  It only has one win against a team (Cleveland) that currently has a winning record.

The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in road games against good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are showing excellent value tonight as a pick 'em against the Atlanta Hawks.  This team has done a great job of staying competitive despite all of the injuries early in the season, and they are finally getting healthy now.

David West recently returned from injury to give the lineup a big boost.  The Pacers come in undervalued due to having lost four in a row, but those four all came on the road against currently playoff contenders Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento.  Add road games at Dallas and San Antonio, and this has been a brutal stretch over the past seven games.

Atlanta comes in overvalued due to its current six-game winning streak.  Its schedule has been much easier during this stretch, and it has done most of its damage at home this season.  It is 9-2 at home compared to just 4-4 on the road.

The Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations in the NBA.  The Pacers, meanwhile, will be well-rested and ready to go since they come in on two days' rest.  They'll be highly motivated to put an end to this four-game losing streak as well.

Plays against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or less two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 8-0 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  The Pacers are 52-32 ATS in their last 84 games following a loss, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a defeat.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5

The UCLA Bruins have certainly been tested in the early going in 2014.  Their two losses have come to Oklahoma and North Carolina, which are two of the best teams in the country.  I believe they are undervalued right now because they lost to those two teams.

The Bruins have taken care of all other comers.  Their six wins this year have all come by 12 points or more, including a 77-63 home win over a very good Long Beach State team as a 10-point favorite, and a 73-45 home win over CS-Fullerton last time out as a 16-point favorite.

San Diego (4-4) has no business only catching single-digits against UCLA tonight.  The Toreros are coming off an 18-17 season last year and aren't much better in 2014.  They have lost to the four best teams they have played, and their four wins have come against SE Missouri State, Florida A&M, Western Michigan and Princeton.

The Bruins are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 24.6 points per game.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCLA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bruins are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  The Bruins are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Toreros are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +4

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now due to their 6-11 start.  I have no doubt this team is better than its record would indicate as it has played several of the top teams in the NBA very close all year.

Its 11 losses have comes to Houston, Dallas (by 5), Toronto (by 3), OKC, Cleveland (by 1) Phoenix (by 4), Memphis, Portland (by 6), Chicago (by 7), San Antonio and Atlanta (by 4).  All those close losses show that they can play with anyone.

Boston has finally been rewarded with a couple wins in a row for its solid play.  It beat Detroit 109-102 and followed that up with a 113-96 beat down of the Lakers last time out.  I look for it to extend its winning streak to three games tonight.

Washington (13-5) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA right now due to its record.  It has simply benefited from playing 11 home games compared to 7 road games.  It is just 4-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game away from home.  Its four road wins have come against Orlando, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee, four of the worst teams in the NBA.

Plays on underdogs (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-54 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing very well right now having one three of their last four games with all three victories coming on the road.  The only loss was a 129-132 (2 OT) setback at home to one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Dallas Mavericks. 

This solid play by the Bulls has coincided with a healthy return of Derrick Rose.  The former MVP has averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season and continues to get better with each game.  Pau Gasol (19.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has proven to be a huge addition this year.  The Bulls will be amped up to play the team with the best record in the NBA in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

While the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, I certainly do not believe they are the best team.  They have simply benefited from playing a very easy schedule.  They come in way overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, which comes to an end tonight.

A closer look at this streak shows that it has come against cake opponents.  The 11 wins have come against the Nets (8-10), Bobcats (5-15) twice, Lakers (5-15), Jazz (5-15), Thunder (6-13), Heat (9-10), Magic (8-14) twice, Pistons (3-15) and Pelicans (8-9).  All 11 wins have come against teams with losing records who have a combined 57-112 (33.7%) record in 2014.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in 10 meetings since 2009.  Chicago is 5-0 straight up in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  It has won those five games by an average of 18.6 points per game.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State 74-84.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (19.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Cooper (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulanetransfer Ricky Tarrant (14.0 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Xavier is a team I have pegged to take a step back this year off a 21-13 season a year ago.  That's because it lost three starters in Semaj Christon (17.0 ppg, 4.2 apg Last year), Justin Martin (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Isaiah Philmore (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Two starters are back in Dee Davis (7.7 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Matt Sainbrook (10.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), but the Musketeers obviously lose most of their scoring from last year.

Xavier has losses to UTEP (73-77) and Long Beach State (70-73) this year that are obviously concerning.  I believe it is overvalued because it is 4-0 at home this season with four blowout wins.  However, those four wins came against Northern Arizona, Long Beach State, Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, which is not impressive at all in my book.

These four returning starters for Alabama will be out for revenge after losing a tight one 74-77 at home to Xavier last season.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Saturday games.  Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The Musketeers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Florida/Kansas ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Florida +7.5

The Florida Gators are undervalued due to their 3-3 start to the 2014-15 season.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight, and I'll back them as a result.

Florida had big expectations coming into the year despite only returning one starter.  This young, talented bunch hasn't played up to par in the early going, but a lot of that has had to due with injuries.  The Gators are finally getting healthy.

Florida could easily be 5-1 right now, too.  Two of its three losses came to very good Miami (69-67) and Georgetown (66-65) teams by a combined three points.  The other was a 64-75 loss to highly-ranked UNC.  So, the Gators are obviously battle-tested right now.

Billy Donnovan is one of the best head coaches in the country.  He is actually enjoying this slow start because it has allowed him to get his player's attention.  They will respond with a big effort tonight against Kansas, especially since they last played on November 28th and have had ample time to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Jayhawks.

"Right now, the truth is slammed in our face, which I think is great," coach Billy Donovan told the school's official website. "A lot of times, in your nonconference scheduling, when you're not playing against high-level competition, it's hard to get to the truth. For these guys ... it's bringing them closer to the truth in finding out who they are and who we are."

Kansas only brings back two starters from last year and lost its best two players in Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid.  It is off to a 5-1 start this season, but I haven't been that impressed with this team.  They lost 40-72 to Kentucky to have their true colors show.  Their best win came in a 61-56 victory over a Michigan State team that isn't that good in 2014-15.

Florida is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games coming in.  The Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC foes.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics get the nod Friday as small 3.5-point home favorites against the hapless Los Angeles Lakers.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight to easily get the win and cover.

Boston (5-11) has been better than its record would suggest, but it has simply fallen victim of a very tough schedule to this point.  Its 11 losses have come to Houston, Dallas, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Phoenix, Memphis, Portland, Chicago, San Antonio and Atlanta.  All but one of those teams has a winning record.

Even in those 11 losses, the Celtics have been mostly competitive with a chance to win almost all of them.  Seven of the 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer.  The Celtics have taken care of teams they are supposed to beat like the Lakers.

Los Angeles hasn't been all that competitive in its 5-14 start.  Seven of its 14 losses have come by double-digits, including a 95-11 road loss to Washington on Wednesday.  The Lakers are giving up 111.1 points per game this season and getting outscored by 7.4 points per game.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the road and getting outscored by 9.3 points per game away from home.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings between these squads.  Los Angeles is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after covering two of its last three ATS coming in.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +4.5

The Denver Nuggets are playing as well as almost anyone coming into this game with the Washington Wizards.  I believe there is a ton of value in backing them as 4.5-point underdogs here in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Denver has gone 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes road wins over the Cavaliers (106-97), Lakers (101-94) and Jazz (103-101), as well as home wins over OKC (107-100), New Orleans (117-97), Chicago (114-109) and Phoenix (122-97).  Its only losses came at Phoenix (112-120) and at home against Portland (103-105).

The Nuggets have now scored 101 or more points in each of their last nine games overall as their offense is hitting on all cylinders. In fact, dating back further, they have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games.

Washington comes in overvalued here after having won three in a row.  It is not at full strength right now, either.  Both Paul Pierce and Nene are questionable to play tonight with injuries, while Martell Webster remains out.

Denver has won six of its last eight meetings with Washington, including both meetings last year.  Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Denver is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their mediocre 8-8 start, while the Golden State Warriors are one of the most overrated teams due to their 15-2 start.  This combination has created some great line value for us tonight to pounce on the Pelicans as 8.5-point underdogs.

Golden State has won 10 straight games coming in, and now it has a huge target on its back.  It has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to tonight, and that started to show last game.  The Warriors only beat the Magic 98-97 as 14.5-point home favorites Tuesday night.

A closer look at this winning streak shows that it has more to do with a lack of competitions than anything.  Indeed, the 10 wins have come against the likes of the Nets, Hornets (twice), Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Heat, Magic (twice) and Pistons.  All of those teams are .500 or worse with nine of those games coming against teams with losing records.  That's no impressive at all in my book.

What was impressive to me was New Orleans' 112-104 win over Oklahoma City on Monday night.  Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played for the Thunder, and played well, too.  The Pelicans had lost three straight to quality teams coming into that game and showed some resolve and what they were capable of.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright tonight, let alone cover the 8.5-point spread.  This is one of the most talented teams in the NBA.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Iowa State ESPN 2 National TV KNOCKOUT on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a perfect 6-0 start that has them currently sitting as the No. 18 ranked team in the land.  This squad is the real deal, and they will show it tonight against No. 20 Iowa State.

Arkansas went 22-12 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament, which has lit a fire under these players.  You could see this fast start coming considering it returned three starters from last year and several key reserves.

The three starters back are each of their top three scorers in Kye Madden (12.7 ppg, 2.8 apg last year), Bobby Portis (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), and Michael Qualls (11.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Alandise Harris (9.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Anthlon Bell (7.2 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49 blocks).

The Razorbacks have not only been winning, they have been dominating.  Five of their six wins this season have come by 16 points or more.  The only exception was an impressive 78-72 road win at SMU as a 4-point underdog.  That SMU team is the real deal, and it shows that the Razorbacks can go on the road and beat a good team like Iowa State.

The Razorbacks also have one of the deepest teams in the country.  They have a whopping nine players averaging at least 5.2 points per game on the season.  Leading the way has been Qualls (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Portis (14.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Bell (13.2 ppg) and Madden (11.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.2 rpg).

Arkansas is only one of four Division 1 teams to score at least 78 points in every game, and it leads the SEC at 90.0 points per game.  What I really love about this team is that it is unselfish.  Indeed, the Razorbacks rank among the nation's leaders with 20.7 assists per game.

If you have followed me the last few seasons, you would know that I have backed Iowa State with regularity.  However, I simply believe it is overvalued in this spot tonight.  This is a very tough spot for the Cyclones, and a great one for the Razorbacks.

Iowa State just played on Tuesday in a 96-59 win over Lamar.  That means it has had just one day to prepare for Arkansas.  The Razorbacks last played on Sunday in a 94-77 win over Iona.  That means they have had a full three days to prepare for Iowa State.  That extra preparation and rest is the biggest reason I'm backing Arkansas tonight.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA ST) - after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Arkansas Thursday.

20* Cavs/Knicks NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +8

Yes, the New York Knicks are 4-15 this season and have really stunk up the joint for the most part.  However, this team isn't nearly as bad as its record would indicate, but it is undervalued at this point because of that poor record.  We're getting excellent value on the Knicks at home Thursday night.

The Knicks have lost five straight coming into this game, but easily could have won four of those, and they were all against good teams.  They only lost by 5 at Houston (86-91), by 7 at Dallas (102-109), by 7 to Miami (79-86), and by 5 to Brooklyn (93-98) during this stretch.  They aren't going to lost by 8 or more to Cleveland tonight.

Conversely, the Cavaliers come into this game overvalued because they have won four straight games coming in.  Well, all four of those came at home and against some suspect competition.  They beat Orlando, Washington, Indiana and Milwaukee, including just a 3-point win over the Bucks (111-108) last time out.  They don't just magically have everything figured out now after their 6-7 start.

The Cavaliers have not played well at all on the road this season.  They are actually getting outscored by an average of 3.0 points per game away from home, where they have played little to no defense.  They are giving up 104.0 points per game on 49.3% shooting in road games.

While the Knicks are just 3-7 at home, they are only getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  They are playing better defense at home than on the road.  They are only allowing 94.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home. 

I also like the fact that Jose Calderon recently returned to the lineup to give the offense a major boost, and that J.R. Smith is expected to return tonight as well.  The Knicks did beat the Cavaliers 95-90 on the road back in the opener, and they are fully capable of pulling off the upset again tonight, let alone staying within 8 points.

The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Thursday games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SPECIAL on Utah Jazz +4

This play is more of a fade of the Toronto Raptors than a play on the Utah Jazz, who obviously haven't been great this season at 5-13.  The Raptors are just in a really tough spot here and I don't see them performing well because of it.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 8th game in 13 days.  That includes a double-overtime loss to the Lakers on Sunday as well as a 117-109 win at Sacramento last night against a Kings team that was playing without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.

The Raptors are already short-handed right now as they are without their second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  They didn't do well without him against the Lakers, and they were fortunate to win last night against the Kings, who again were without Cousins.  The longer they go without him, the tougher it's going to be.  I believe it catches up with them tonight, as it did against the Lakers.

Utah comes in way undervalued due to its current six-game losing streak.  It has played a gauntlet of a schedule during this skid with losses to the Warriors, Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets, who are all playoff contenders.  This will be only the 3rd game in 7 days for the Jazz, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight to try and put and end to this skid.

The Jazz are 53-33 ATS in their last 86 home games off a loss to a division rival.  Utah is 151-117 ATS in its last 268 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on one days' rest.  Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 meetings with the Jazz, including 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UTEP +6

The UTEP Miners are my pick to win Conference USA in 2014-15.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that squad.  I really love Tim Floyd's mentality as a defensive-minded head coach because he gets his players to go all out on that end of the floor.

The four returning starters are Julian Washburn (13.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), C.J. Cooper (9.6 ppg, 3.0 apg), Vince Hunter (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Matt Wilms (5.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  Cedrick Lang (6.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is a key returning reserve from last year's 21-win team.

I have been very impressive with UTEP's 4-1 start this season because it has come against such a difficult schedule.  It beat Washington State (65-52) and New Mexico State (77-76) at home, while also topping Princeton (62-56) and Xavier (77-73) on a neutral court.  Its lone loss came to Washington (65-68) on a neutral court by three points.

Hunter (18.4 ppg, 12.6 rpg) has become an absolute beast after winning the C-USA Freshman of the Year award last year.  He's one of the best players in the country that not too many know about.  Lang (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Washburn (10.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Cooper (9.8 ppg, 4.4 apg) have all picked up where they left off last year as well.

Colorado State is way overvalued right now due to its perfect 6-0 start to the season.  This is a team that went just 16-16 last year and one that does return three starters, but it is not as good of a team at UTEP, yet it is getting treated like the better team with this 6-point spread.

The Rams' six wins have come against the likes of Montana (83-66), Georgia State (80-70), Mercer (75-62), Missouri State (76-61), Pacific (75-64) and UC-Santa Barbara (65-63).  I would argue that all six of Colorado State's opponents thus far are worse than at least four of the five teams that UTEP has played.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Rams to this point.

UTEP is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Miners are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  UTEP is 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by 6 points or less.

Colorado State is 1-10 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Colorado State is 5-19-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  These teams met twice last year with UTEP winning 82-74 at home and losing 58-62 on the road.  Bet UTEP Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

Both the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have been struggling this season, but the Pistons have been worse.  They are just 3-15 on the year against a softer schedule than the Celtics, who are 4-11 on the season.

Yes, Boston has lost seven of its last eight games overall, but a closer look at the opponents tells the story.  Its seven losses have come to Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Memphis (100-117), Portland (88-94), Chicago (102-109), San Antonio (89-111) and Atlanta (105-109).  If that's not a gauntlet, I don't know what is.  Plus, the Celtics played most of those playoff contenders right down to the wire.

Detroit has lost nine straight coming in.  That includes home losses to Orlando (93-107), Milwaukee (88-104) and the LA Lakers (96-106), as well as a road loss to the Bucks (86-98).  As you can see, it has lost by double-digits to some really bad teams during this streak, so its problems have a lot more to do with being terrible than the schedule.  The following comments tell the story.

"Offensively, we just continue to be awful," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We're really messed up right now as a team. ... We have a lot of dilemmas, a lot of guys feeling pressure, but we're really not right mentally right now. That's got to change before anything else does."

Detroit is 12-30 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-8 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Detroit is 3-12 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 6.6 points per game. 

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Pistons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the East.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a big home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  The Nets did play last night in a 98-93 victory over the Knicks, but it's a short trip back home, which will lessen the second of a back-to-back factor.

Plus, this will still only be Brooklyn's 3rd game the past 7 days and 4th game in the past 11 days, so that will also soften the blow from being a back-to-back situation.  Add to that the fact that the Nets will be out for revenge from an 87-99 loss to Spurs on the road on November 22nd, and we have a really solid play here.

You also have to consider that the 87-99 loss to the Spurs was a tough situation for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back after winning in Oklahoma City the previous night.  It was also their 7th game in an 11-day span, so they were dead tired for that contest.

San Antonio is simply way overvalued here.  This is a team that is coming off a 109-103 win at Philadelphia last time out, and it is overvalued due to winning eight straight games coming in.  Asking it to go on the road and win by double-digits against a quality Brooklyn team to beat us is asking too much.

The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, including a 103-89 victory for the Nets at home last year.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Notre Dame ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They were a big disappointment last year as they went just 15-17 and lost several key players throughout the season due to injury and suspension.

Star guard Jerian Grant was suspended after the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  With Grant, the Fighting Irish were 8-4, and without him they were 7-13.  He averaged 19.2 points and 6.2 assists per game prior to his suspension.

Grant is one of three returning starters for the Fighting Irish this season.  The other two are key contributors in G/F Pat Connaughton (13.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) and F Zach Auguste (6.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Demetrius Jackson (6.0 ppg) and Steve Vasturia (5.0 ppg).

Notre Dame is off to an impressive 6-1 start this season with its only loss coming to Providence (74-75) by a single point on a neutral court.  All six of its wins have come by 13 points or more, including an 81-68 victory as a 5-point favorite against a very good UMass team on a neutral floor as well.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 18.4 points and 7.1 assists per game.  Auguste (15.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Jackson (11.9 ppg) have all taken their games up a notch as well.  V.J. Beachem (8.4 ppg) and Vasturia (7.1 ppg) have been solid role players to boot.

Michigan State is clearly down this season as it already has two losses.  Yes, those losses came to Duke (61-71) and Kansas (56-61), but it also barely beat Navy (64-59) in the opener.  That's also a Kansas team that was blown out by Kentucky 40-72 and is clearly down this year as well.

It was obvious that the Spartans were going to struggle early considering they lost three starters from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  Also, top recruit Javon Bess is sidelined with an injury right now.

Plays on a favorite (NOTRE DAME) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 14-4 ATS off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997.  Michigan State is 19-35 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.  The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes.  Take Notre Dame Wednesday.

15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +10

The Penn State Nittany Lions are certainly an improved team this season with four returning starters from last year.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season, but they are overvalued because of their record.  They easily could be 3-4 right now instead of 6-1.

Indeed, the Nittany Lions have four wins by 8 points or less this season.  The only two exceptions were home wins over lowly Morgan State (61-48) and Fordham (73-54).  They lost to Charlotte (97-106), and barely beat Cornell (72-71), USC (63-61), Akron (78-72) and Bucknell (88-80).  If all those teams can stay within single-digits of the Nittany Lions, so can the Hokies.

Virginia Tech came into the season with very little expectations after going just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play.  The outlook is much better in 2014-15 thanks to the signing of Buzz Williams, who has gone 153-86 in his seven years as a head coach with Marquette.

He steps into a good situation as the Hokies return four starters and a solid sixth man from last year.  Back are Adam Smith (11.0 ppg), Ben Emelogu (10.5 ppg), Devin Wilson (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Joey van Zegeren (6.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg).  The sixth man is C.J. Barskdale (8.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg).

Williams also signed a tremendous recruiting class that will step in and held right away.  Smith (14.3 ppg) and Van Zegeren (10.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg) have taken their games to the next level.  Justin Bibbs (12.2 ppg) and Ahmed Hill (8.3 ppg) have played well as freshmen right away.  Bibbs is a top-75 recruit from the previous class, while Hill is a top-60 recruit who score 3,000 points in HS and followed Buzz from Marquette.

The Hokies are off to a solid 4-2 start this season.  They did lose to Appalachian State (63-65) and Northern Iowa (54-73), but that Northern Iowa team is one of the most underrated in the country and will challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Title.  The Hokies are coming off their two best performances of the year with a 78-63 win over Miami Ohio as a 4-point favorite, and an 83-63 home victory against Morgan State.

Penn State is 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Nittany Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Penn State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Penn State is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  It has no business being favored by double-digits tonight.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to be a very tired bunch tonight as they take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to Dallas 129-132 in double-overtime last night.  I simply do not believe they'll have much left in the tank.

Charlotte, on the other hand, comes into this game well-rested and ready to go.  It last played on Saturday, so it has had three days of rest in between games.  It will also be highly motivated to put and end to a nine-game losing streak that has seen five of those losses come by single-digits, including four by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets have played the Bulls very tough in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  The Hornets won their last home games against the Bulls by a final of 91-86 (OT) in their final meeting of 2014.  Couple their tough play against Chicago with the horrible spot for the Bulls, and that makes this an excellent play tonight.

The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on no rest.  Chicago is 19-39-1 ATS in its last 59 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bulls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. 

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Central division foes.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 Wednesday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Harvard -7

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chanbers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home as a 7-point favorite last time out, failing to cover, which is another reason I believe this line has been set lower than it should be.

That's the same UMass team that beat Northeastern 79-54 as a 6-point home favorite on November 26th.  That wasn't the only troubling result for this Northeastern squad.  It also lost 44-66 to Navy on a neutral court as a 13-point favorite.  Those two results show that Northeastern doesn't belong on the same court as Harvard.

The Crimson are 14-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%.  The Crimson are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Harvard is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Harvard is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Northeastern is 0-6 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Bet Harvard Wednesday.

15* Raptors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings.  I believe it has a lot to do with the Raptors' 122-129 (OT) loss to the Lakers last time out.  The Lakers don't play any defense and that game was not a telling sign of what's going to happen tonight.

It was also the first game for the Raptors without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  Teams can usually get by for a game without their leading scorer, but over time it becomes much harder for the offense to do so.  DeRozan (groin) will miss this game as well and the offense will suffer without him.

Sacramento is dealing with an injury issue of its own to leading scorer DeMarcus Cousins (23.5 ppg, 12.6 rpg).  He has missed the last two games due to an illness and is questionable to return tonight.  The Kings only managed 85 points in an 85-97 loss to Memphis last time out.  Whether he plays or not, I still love this UNDER.

Both teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Raptors are giving up 98.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting, while the Kings are allowing 100.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting.  Sacramento only allows 97.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home.  The Raptors' defensive numbers are a lot better if you exclude that overtime game against the Lakers last time out, too.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Kings last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the UNDER.  Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavericks/Bulls Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 203.5

Rarely ever will you see a total set of greater than 200 points in a game involving the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the league's best defensive teams since Tom Thibodeau arrived.  In fact, only twice all season have they had a total set of greater than 196.5 points.  Those came against the Nuggets and Celtics, who are two teams that play little defense and at a fast pace.

Both Chicago and Dallas rank in the middle of the league in pace this season.  They both rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls are down lower than their normally would be at 9th, giving up 101.3 points per 100 possessions, but still solid nonetheless.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring the recent meetings between the Mavericks and Bulls have been.  They have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings with a 6-1 record for the UNDERS.

They have combined for 191, 188, 198, 179, 176, 159 and 171 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this game tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHICAGO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-26 (69%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in December home games over the last three seasons. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bills last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5

 This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, in its last game against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg)) and Patterson (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.4 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thuran (10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and White (9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

Kansas State (3-3) is clearly down this season.  Two of its three wins have come at home against Southern Utah (96-68) and Missouri-KC (83-73) with the latter result providing a troubling sign of things to come for the Wildcats.

They have gone 1-3 in their last four games since, which included a 60-69 loss at Long Beach State as a 2.5-point favorite.  They did have a good showing in a 68-72 loss to Arizona on a neutral court, but their 47-70 loss to Pittsburgh last time out in that same tournament shows that this team has a long way to go.

The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska-Omaha is 6-2 ATS in its lst eight road games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Summit league foes.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +14

The Los Angeles Clippers were 5-4 heading into their seven-game road trip and not playing very well at all.  Well, they won six of their seven games during that trip with their only loss coming to Western Conference-leading Memphis.

"We made it a business trip," point guard Chris Paul said. "We got out of our own way. We played a little bit more free and really moved the ball. Most of all, our defense was pretty good."

Well, now I expect them to have a letdown after such a successful trip when they return home Monday.  That first game home after a long road trip is always tough on players.  They have so many obligations when they get back home that they can easily forget about basketball.  I don't believe the Clippers will play with the kind of focus it takes to put away Minnesota by more than 14 points Monday.

The Clippers have covered five of their last seven games, while the Timberwolves have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games with one push.  The betting public has taken notice, which is the reason why this line is so inflated.  There's clearly value in backing the Timberwolves as such a massive dog here.

I know Minnesota is dealing with some injuries right now, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and other players have stepped up.  Mo Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and guys like Thaddeus Young (13.9 ppg), Andrew Wiggins (11.6 ppg), Corey Brewer (10.9 ppg) and Shabazz Muhammad (9.5 ppg) have stepped up their games.

Minnesota will be motivated to put an end to a 9-game losing streak to Los Angeles in this series.  While that is concerning, a closer look shows that it has rarely been blown out by the Clippers.  Indeed, The Clippers have only beaten the Timberwolves by more than 13 points once in those nine meetings.  The last four have all been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 4 or fewer.

Plays on road teams (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in their second season under form NBA coach Eddie Jordan.  This team should be vastly improved this year off a 12-21 campaign in Jordan's first season last year.

Jordan has three starters back from that team, including his top two scorers in G Myles Mack (14.9 ppg, 4.3 apg last year) and F/C Kadeem Jack (14.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  In these two seniors, Jordan has some fine leadership and go-to scorers.  Also back is sophomore F Junio Etou (5.34 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Rutgers has gotten off to a shaky 3-3 start this season, but it has played a tough schedule.  It has a win over Vanderbilt by a final of 68-65 on November 28th as a 5.5-point underdog.  It followed that up with a 26-45 loss to Virginia last time out as an 18.5-point dog.  The Cavaliers are currently ranked 8th in the country, so I'm not going to worry about that loss too much.

My choice to go with Rutgers tonight is more of a fade of Clemson than anything.  I simply believe that this team is not that good and should not be laying 9.5 points to the Scarlet Knights tonight.  Asking the Tigers to win by double-digits to cover is asking too much.

Clemson is off to a 4-2 start this season, but against a much softer schedule than Rutgers.  Its last three wins have all come by single-digits over Nevada (59-50), LSU (64-61) and High Point (62-59) with that 3-point win over High Point coming at home, and the other two on neutral courts.

While those three narrow wins are all concerning for the Tigers, the biggest evidence that they aren't a very good team has come from their two losses.  They lost at home to Winthrop (74-77) and on a neutral court to Gardner-Webb (70-72).

The Tigers did return four players this season that played significant minutes for them last year, but none of those four averaged double-digits scoring last season.  They lost their best player in K.J. McDaniels (17.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg last year) to the NBA, and they simply haven't been nearly as good without him.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 121-72 (62.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4-plus points per game. 

Rutgers is 48-28 ATS in its last 76 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Tigers are 33-60 ATS in their last 93 games coming off two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Brad Brownell is 4-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Brownell is 2-11 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Take Rutgers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 195.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings will take part in a defensive battle tonight in this Western Conference showdown.  The books opened this number around 191.5 and it has been bet all the way up to 195.5 in some place, creating some nice value for us here.

Neither of these teams prefer to push the tempo.  In fact, Memphis ranks just 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.4 possessions per game.  Sacramento is 14th in pace at 95.6 possessions per contest.

The reason Memphis is 14-2 right now and atop the Western Conference standings is its play defensively.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions.  Opponents are making just 43.2% of their shots for 92.8 points per game against the Grizzlies.

Memphis has been worse offensively and better defensively on the road this year.  It is scoring just 94.5 points per game away from home, but giving up just 89.9 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 184.4 points per game in road games.

Sacramento has been a much better defensive team at home.  It is giving up an average of 97.2 points per game at home this year and 44.1% shooting.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Sacramento's six home games this year, and 5-3 in Memphis' eight road games.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as the Grizzlies and Kings have combined for 188 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.  I know they combined for 221 in their first meeting of 2014, but that was simply an aberration.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies las five road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well.  Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.

Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with.  THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.

Richmond is a team on the decline.  It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year.  They do return three starters from last year, though.

Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points.  The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog.  I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.

The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years. 

Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.

Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year.  It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going.  They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court.  Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home.  That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.

Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5

The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play.  Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.

Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg).  Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament.  The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.

Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season.  Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg).  So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly.  They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.

Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start.  However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight.  It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.

There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year.  They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.

St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot.  They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright.  Take St. John's Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12.  They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.

Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad.  That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12.  Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).

TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more.  It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.

Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either.  They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg).  The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).

It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least.  It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents.  The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite.  They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38).  It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.

Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5

Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for.  It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.

The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament.  They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game.  Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.

Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65.  Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.

One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday.  They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST.  So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after.  Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5

Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA.  However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.

The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season.  Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level.  Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.

Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach.  He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014.  He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).

Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown.  Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77.  Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35).  That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80.  That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.

Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games.  Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game.  Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.

While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA.  They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.

The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA.  Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  It returns three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg last year), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 3.7 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (22.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Morris (11.0 ppg, 8.0 apg, 4.3 rpg) and Hogue (15.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (14.0 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 3-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82), Georgia State (81-58) and Alabama (84-74).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive. 

Alabama was 3-0 prior to losing yesterday by double-digits to the Cyclones.  Iowa State got back two key players from two-game suspensions for that game against the Crimson Tide.  Matt Thomas scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his first game game, while Abdel Nader added 4 points in the win.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Maryland has no business only being a 5-point underdog in this game.  It lost five key players from last year's team that went 17-15.  Three of those were Seth Allen (13.4 ppg), Nick Faust (9.4 ppg) and CHarles Mitchell (6.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

The Terrapins are overvalued due to their 4-0 start against weak competition.  Their first three wins all came again home against Wagner, Central Connecticut State and Fordham.  Their fourth was a 78-73 win against Arizona State yesterday, which is the same ASU team that only beat Bethune-Cookman 49-39 at home as a 23-point favorite.  This is by far the Terrapins' stiffest test of the season as they clearly aren't as battle-tested as the Cyclones.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg). 

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference.  It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking.  They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did.  Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.

These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin.  Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite.  There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.

Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well.  It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning.  Also, all three of those games were at home.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012.  While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent.  The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).

Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight  games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Timberwolves UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.  If this was last year, this total would be justified, but these are two completely different teams from last year.

Minnesota no longer has Kevin Love, and it is battling all kinds of injury issues right now.  It is without each of its top three scorers in Kevin Martin (20.4 ppg), Thaddeus Young (14.3 ppg) and Nikola Pekovic (11.9 ppg) due to injuries or personal issues right now. They are also without starting PG Ricky Rubio right now, which has hurt their offense.

Points were certainly hard to come by for the Timberwolves in their first game without all three of these guys last night.  The Timberwolves managed just 92 points on 41.1% shooting against the San Antonio Spurs Friday.

Sacramento lost point guard Isaiah Thomas this offseason, but it has actually been better without him.  It is off to a solid 7-5 start this season.  The biggest reason is its improvement on defense as it is giving up just 100.8 points per game and 43.8% shooting.

The Kings actually rank in the top half of the league (13th) in defensive efficiency this year, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are a better defensive team without Martin and Pekovic, who are liabilities on that end.  So, their defensive numbers should improve going forward.

The Kings & Timberwolves have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, and six of their last seven meetings overall.  That says a lot because the Timberwolves were a much better offensive team with Kevin Love and a healthy Rubio, Pekovic and Martin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Sacramento is 17-4 to the UNDER in its last 21 off four straight games where it forced opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 208.5

This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  I fully expect a defensive battle as the Toronto Raptors travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Both teams rank right in the middle of the pack in pace.  Toronto is 13th with 95.9 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 95.4 possessions per game.  Neither of these teams really like to get up and down as they prefer to run their offense in the half court.

Toronto is combining with its opponents to average 201.6 points per game this season.  Cleveland is combining with its foes to average 204.5 points per game on the year.  Those two numbers alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing this UNDER tonight.

The Cavaliers are averaging just 88.3 points per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Their defense has been better as they have held three of their last four opponents to 94 or fewer points.  All three of them were good offensive teams in Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington as well.

Toronto and Cleveland have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, including 196 or less in five of those.  Dating back further, they have combined for 202 or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games as well.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5

The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.

Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22.  Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple.  It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.

I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season.  It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg).  They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.

Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one.  The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year.  It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year.  So, that win is not as bad as it looks.

The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive.  Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA.  It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.

Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple.  This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.

They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday.  I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8. 

The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight.  I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes.  Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less.  Take Temple Friday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Bulls/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings both could be missing key players tonight.  Derrick Rose (18.0 ppg) and Pau Gasol (18.6 ppg) are both questionable to return, while Rudy Gay (21.8 ppg) is also questionable for Sacramento.

The good news is that I like this UNDER no matter whether these three play or not, but if they don't play it's going to be an added bonus.  I fully expect a defensive battle between the Bulls and Kings on TNT tonight.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  Opponents are shooting just 42.9% against the Bulls, who rank 7th in the league in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions this year.

These teams have played in some low-scoring games in recent years.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Kings.  They have combined for 181, 169, 200, and 180 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 182.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls' last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Kings last 20 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Kings last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3

The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight.  SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking.  That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.

Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season.  It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.

SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues.  He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year.  That means they are down to two returning starters.  They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.

Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year.  Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already.  It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams.  It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season.  They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.

"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."

Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12.  They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field.  Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.

It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight.  "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."

The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3.  Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana.  Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana.  The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday.  They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.

Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year.  It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here.  This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.

Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's.  It didn't get destroyed in either game.  It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.

Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more.  That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.

Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with Drexel Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard.  However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here.  McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.

The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).

I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State.  It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.

Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997.  Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on display once again in this one.

New York is scoring just 93.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting.  It is struggling in the new Triangle Offense, which is why it ranks 30th in the league in pace at 91.8 possessions per game.  It just struggles to find decent shots within the confines of the offense.

Milwaukee has been even worse than New York offensively.  It is putting up just 91.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting.  It ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 94.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only OKC and Philadelphia have been worse.

Both teams have played reasonably well defensively to keep them in games.  Milwaukee is giving up 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, ranking 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency.  It is allowing just 94.7 points per 100 possessions.  New York gives up 98.1 points per game on 44.9% shooting.

New York has only topped 100 points in one of its 11 games this season, while Milwaukee has only topped 97 points once all season, and that came in an overtime game.  The Bucks have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games this year, while the Knicks have given up 98 or fewer in seven of their 11 games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games overall with combined scores of 168, 181, 193, 185, 163, 186 and 175 points.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15.  I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.

Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg).  It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.

The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.

Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15.  It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.

The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception.  They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th.  That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year.  The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.

Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998.  That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite.  Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.

Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Duke Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23

The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12.  They finished just 17-15.

Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced.  They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg).  They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year.  Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.

The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points.  They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points.  They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.

Texas Southern is not a very good team.  It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis.  Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.

It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game.  They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season.  Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.

It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington.  It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64).  If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.  Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner.  The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.

Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low.  PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year.  SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.

The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad.  Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes.  Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.

Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year.  While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves.  They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday.  If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.

Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas.  Bet Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 193

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets square off Sunday in what I believe will be a defensive battle.  These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and that will be on display tonight.

The Rockets have gone 8-1 to the UNDER this season due to their improvement on the defensive end.  They have three of the best defenders in the league at their respective positions in C Dwight Howard, SF Trevor Ariza and PG Patrick Beverly.  Beverly has missed a few games due to injury, but he is expected to return Sunday and will shut down OKC's Reggie Jackson.

Houston is giving up just 91.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting this season.  It ranked No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 92.9 points per 100 possessions.  Its offense has taken a step back with the loss of Chandler Parsons and the injury to Terrance Jones as it is shooting just 44.1% this season.

Oklahoma City is playing without Kevin Durant AND Russell Westbrook, and as a result, points have been very hard to come by.  The Thunder are scoring just 92.0 points per game and shooting 43.3% from the floor.  They rank 28th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 96.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder know they aren't going to win any shootouts with anyone without Westbrook and Durant, so they have tried to shorten the games by playing at a slow pace.  Indeed, they rank 24th in the league in pace at 93.6 possessions per game.  They have been dominant defensively, giving up just 96.5 points per game and 43.5% shooting to the opposition this year.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 49-19 (72.1%) over the last five seasons.  Houston is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 games off a win.  The UNDER is 14-5 in Thunder's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks.  This is an under bettors' dream tonight.  Both teams love to slow it down and play at a snail's pace, which will lead to an easy cash on the UNDER in this one.

New York has really been struggling to learn the Triangle Offense, which is why it is putting up just 91.6 points per game this season on 43.7% shooting.  It has yet to score 100 points in any game this season.  Utah has been a little better offensively, but it is still just scoring 97.6 points per game on the year.  It has failed to top 97 points in any of its last four games.

Because the Knicks are lost offensively, they rank dead last (30th) in the league in pace at 91.2 possessions per game.  Utah also likes to slow it down, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game.  Fewer possessions equal fewer points, which is precisely how this game will play out tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Knicks and Jazz, and this was before the Knicks went to this new offense. They have combined for 175, 189 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 193, showing you that there is value on this UNDER based on the head-to-head history.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Bulls are 6-2 this season while the Raptors are 7-1.  A big reason for both of their successes is because they each get after it on the defensive end of the court.

The Bulls are holding teams to 98.4 points per game and 42.7% shooting.  The Raptors are limiting foes to 96.4 points per game and 46.2% shooting.  Toronto ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 12th.

These teams have been prone to defensive battles when they have gotten together recently.  They have combined for 186 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They are averaging a combined 177.4 points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  There is clearly a ton of value in this under based on that alone.

Chicago is 13-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or less assists over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 15-3 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Raptors last 27 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight for many more reasons other than the fact that the defensive intensity will be amplified considering this is a National TV game.

The Houston Rockets haven't missed a beat this season since trading away Chandler Parsons and replacing him with Trevor Ariza.  They got an upgrade on defense and a slight downgrade on offense.  Arizona has been a big reason for their early success en route to a 6-1 record thus far.

The Rockets actually lead the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 92.5 points per 100 possessions.  They haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points yet, giving up just 90.9 points per game on 40.7% shooting.  That's a big reason why they are 7-0 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Minnesota has quietly been competitive this year, but it suffered a huge blow when starting point guard Ricky Rubio suffered a serious ankle injury a couple games ago that's going to keep him out for a couple of weeks.  It hurts their offense tremendously, but they actually become a better defensive team without Rubio on the floor.

That has been evident in the two games since Rubio got hurt.  Minnesota was tied with Orlando 94-94 at the end of regulation on November 7th for 188 combined points before overtime.  It lost 92-102 at Miami the next night in two games that would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime.  The Timberwolves shot just 43.0% from the field against the Magic, and 40.2% against the Heat.

Houston has combined for 199 or fewer points with all seven of its opponents this season, while Minnesota has combined for 194 or fewer combined points with four of its six opponents this season when you don't count overtime.  These two facts alone show that there is value in backing the UNDER 200.5 points in this game.

Minnesota is 21-9 to the UNDER as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in two more more consecutive games coming in.  The Rockets are 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are hated rivals who have met in the Eastern Conference Finals each of the last two years.  These games are always played closer to the vest, and the defensive intensity will be there because of it.  That's especially the case considering this game will be shown on National TV.

The difference this year is that both teams are without a ton of their scoring from last season.  The Heat are without Lebron James and Ray Allen, while the Pacers are currently playing without Paul George, David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.

To no surprise, Indiana has really struggled offensively this year.  It is scoring just 93.0 points per game on 42.6% shooting, which includes an overtime game.  It has failed to score more than 98 points in any game this season.

What I like about this play is that both teams play at very slow paces.  Not surprisingly, Indiana ranks 27th in the league in pace at 93.4 possessions per game.  It also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Miami isn't looking to get up and down the floor to put up a ton of shots, either.  It ranks 21st in the league in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  It has shot 48.1% from the field this year, which is very impressive, but it's also unsustainable moving forward.

The Pacers and Heat have combined for 191 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 meetings overall.  I certainly do not foresee them getting to 190 tonight given the circumstances for the Pacers, who simply have no offensive firepower with all of their injuries.  They know they have to try to win games by limiting possessions, which is what they will try and do again tonight.

Indiana is 20-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 77-47 to the UNDER in its last 124 games following a game where it made 55% of its shots or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as these are two teams with two of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.

As you know, the Thunder are playing without their two superstars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  However, they are also playing without Andre Roberson and Perry Jones, so they really lack playmakers right now. 

The Thunder are only shooting 44.7% from the floor while averaging 92.0 points per game offensively.  They have been lost on offense, which is why they rank 24th in the league in pace, averaging just 94.0 possessions per game.  They are tied for 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City has had to make up for it on the defensive end, where it has been solid.  Opponents are only scoring 98.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting against them.  They have Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams holding down the fort inside.

Milwaukee hasn't been very good offensively, either.  It is averaging just 93.9 points per game on 43.6% shooting.  It ranks 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Like the Thunder, they have made up for it on the defensive end.  They are giving up just 94.7 points per game on 43.0% shooting this year.  They have Larry Sanders protecting the paint for them as he is back and healthy this year, which has made a huge difference for their defense.

 The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  The last three have been very low-scoring as they combined for 186, 171 and 184 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle between these two for a fourth straight meetings tonight.

Milwaukee is 8-0 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder's last six road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Nets UNDER 192

I'm going to side with the UNDER in this game between Atlantic Division rivals Brooklyn and New York Friday night.  I look for defense to shine through in this one as the final combined score of this game stays well below the 192-point total.

New York has played in a bunch of low-scoring games thus far.  It has combined with its opponents for 189 points or fewer in four of its five games this year.  The only exception was the 193-point output against Detroit last time out, but the two teams needed 59 points in the fourth quarter to get to that number.

I predicted that the Knicks would struggle to learn the Triangle Offense early in the season, and that has certainly been the case.  They are only averaging 89.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting.  Players are out of position consistently and still learning how to play with one another within the Triangle.

You can really tell that they are struggling to find good shots offensively because they are eating up the shotclock almost every possession.  In fact, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging just 89.7 possessions per game.  To compare, the No. 1 team in pace is Golden State, which is averaging 103.0 possessions per game.  When a team's possessions are limited, the UNDER is usually a good bet.

Brooklyn has actually played very well on the offensive end this season.  It is shooting 48.3% from the field thus far, but that's going to be tough to keep up moving forward.  Plus, they have played a pretty easy schedule with the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, Thunder and Timberwolves thus far.  Brooklyn ranks right in the middle of the pack in pace (14th), averaging 96.1 possessions per game.

New York is 32-14 to the UNDER in its last 46 games off a game where its opponent grabbed 65 or more rebounds.  Lionel Hollins is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games versus foul-prone teams that are called for 24 or more fouls per game in all games he has coached.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Nets last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 188.5

This is a rematch from the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year.  These Pacers and Wizards know each other inside and out after playing in the playoffs last year, and based on those six games, I can tell that this number has been set too high tonight.

Oddsmakers set every total between Washington and Indiana at 187 points or fewer in the playoffs last year.  Four of the six games went UNDER the total, and each of the last five games in the series saw 187 or fewer combined points.  From Game 6-back, they combined for 173, 181, 187, 148, 168 and 198 points.

The Pacers clearly aren't the same team as they were last year due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without three starters in Paul George, George Hill and David West, and their offense has struggled as a result.

Indiana has has to play a slow-it-down style this year to try to avoid getting blown out.  It ranks just 27th in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is scoring just 91.2 points per game on 42.7% shooting.  Its lack of offensive firepower with all of these injuries is alarming.

Both Washington and Indiana have been strong defensively this season.  Indiana is allowing just 94.2 points per game on the season as it is nearly as strong defensively as it was a year ago even with these losses.  Washington is yielding 96.2 points per contest on the year.

Dating back further, eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.  Indiana is 34-18 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 36-19 to the UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last three years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Mavericks UNDER 209

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks Monday night.  I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER 209 points in a game that will likely see 200 or fewer combined points by game's end.

These are teams that have played contrasting styles thus far.  Dallas ranked 27th in the league in pace, averaging just 93.0 possessions per game.  Boston ranks 2nd in pace, average 102.8 possessions per contest.  Since this one is being played in Dallas, I look for the home team to control the pace, which will lead to a lower-scoring game.

This number has been inflated because both of these teams have averaged over 100 points per game offensively in the early going.  Dallas leads the league in offensive efficiency, but they won't be able to put up points at the rate they have thus far all season.  Boston clearly can't match the 121 points it put up on Brooklyn in the opener with any regularity, and that was evident in a 90-104 loss at Houston last time out.

The two meetings between Boston and Dallas last year saw 183 and 193 combined points.  Not counting overtime, the last 11 meetings between Boston and Dallas have seen 198 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Nets UNDER 192.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG in 2013-14) and Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG).  Until these two return, the Thunder are going to have trouble scoring points.  They are going to have to rely on their defense, which is still elite without these two.

In its first game without these two, Oklahoma City beat Denver at home by a final of 102-91 for 193 combined points.  Don't expect this team to put up 102 points without their two superstars because that performance was an aberration.  The defense was solid as expected in limiting the Nuggets to just 91 points on 43.7% shooting.

In fact, the defense has been very good all season.  The Thunder combined for 195 points with the Blazers, 183 points with the Clippers, and 193 points with the Nuggets.  They are giving up just 96.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting.  Their offense has been atrocious as they are scoring 93.7 points per game on 43.4% shooting.

Brooklyn bounced back from an awful 105-121 loss at Boston with a 102-90 win at Detroit last time out.  It has been without its best player in Brook Lopez for those two games, but he is expected to return tonight.  Lopez is their top rebounder and shot blocker and will certainly help them improve defensively upon his return.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Without Durant and Westbrook, there's going to be some value in backing the UNDER in OKC games going forward.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 194

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their two best players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Durant, who led the league in scoring last year, is out until at least December with a foot injury.  Westbrook suffered a fractured right hand against the Clippers in their last game and is expected to miss up to six weeks.

This Oklahoma City offense is going to be lost without Durant and Westbrook.  Durant averaged 32.0 points per game last year, while Westbrook put up 21.8 points per game.  The Thunder only had two other players who averaged double figures in Serge Ibaka (15.1) and Reggie Jackson (13.1) last year.  It's worth noting that Jackson and fellow guard Jeremy Lamb are questionable to play in this game as well with injuries.  They have each missed the first two games of the season.

Being lost on offense means that the Thunder will take a lot of time every possession trying to figure out how to get the ball in the basket.  That will lead to poor shots at the end of the shot clock.  Mark Brooks isn't a dumby, and he knows that his team's best chance to win without his two superstars is to limit the possessions and to make every game a defensive battle.  That's what he will do, starting with tonight's game against Denver.

The Thunder were already struggling offensively without Durant, which is no surprise.  They have averaged just 89.5 points per game on 41.8% shooting in their losses to the Blazers and Clippers in their first two games.  It's only going to get worse without their point guard out there in Westbrook.  This may be the worst offensive team in the league now.

Denver didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in its opener.  It beat Detroit 89-79 at home behind a very good effort defensively in allowing the Pistons to shoot just 36.9% from the floor while grabbing 65 rebounds.  The Nuggets figure to get a boost on defense this season with the return of a healthy JaVale McGee, who is one of the top shot-blockers in the league.

Oklahoma City is 16-4 to the UNDER in its last 20 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 16-6 to the UNDER in their last 22 games following a road loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Thunder's last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +9.5

The Philadelphia 76ers lost to Indiana on the road by a final of 91-103 in the opener, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread.  They held a 51-48 lead at halftime, but did not play nearly as well after intermission.  I believe they are showing value here in their second game of the season after that performance as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

I also believe the betting public is overreacting on the Bucks' solid performance at Charlotte where they lost 106-108 (OT) despite being an 8-point underdog.  They also blew a lead in that game and allowed the Bobcats to come back and win.  The Bucks simply have no business being this heavily favored against anyone, and there's value in the 76ers as a result.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last couple seasons, which is another reason why I believe this 9.5-point spread is too much.  Indeed, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and seven of those have been decided by 9 points or less.

The 76ers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. 

Simply put, Philadelphia is undervalued after failing to cover against Indiana, while Milwaukee is overvalued after covering against an overrated Charlotte squad.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 201

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as it's highly likely that neither team surpasses the 100-point barrier.

Utah was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last year.  It lost 93-104 to Houston in its opener and struggled once again offensively.  Those teams only combined for 197 points despite the fact that Houston shot 51.9% from the field and 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

Dallas played a good game at San Antonio but fell 100-101 for 201 combined points.  This game was played at a slow pace as the Spurs shot 52.9% from the field and 14-of-28 from 3-point range, yet still managed just 101 points.

Dallas is not going to be pushing the tempo as much this year without Jose Calderon at the point.  That's especially the case early because they have several new faces, and it's going to take some time to gel offensively.  The defense will be better this year with the arrival of Tyson Chandler, and newcomer Chandler Parsons is a plus-defender as well.

Utah and Dallas played four times last year.  The UNDER went 3-1 in the four meetings with combined scores of 178, 209, 184 and 196 points.  So, they averaged 191.8 combined points per game last year, which is nearly 10 points less than tonight's total, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER based on that alone.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season that allowed a 45.5% shooting percentage or worse are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7

I look for the Detroit Pistons to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  I really like the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, who has been one of the most successful head coaches this league has seen.  He owns a .641 winning percentage in eight season with Miami and Orlando.

Van Gundy has plenty of talent to work with this year with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings leading the way.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a real scorer and should blossom in his second season.  I also like the additions of D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler as role players who will fit in nicely. 

The Pistons thrived in the preseason, going 5-2, and I look for them to carry over that success to the regular season opener.  The Nuggets, meanwhile, went just 2-6 in the preseason and are out of whack.  They have several players returning from injury, and Brian Shaw just has no chemistry with this team coming into the year.

Three key players for the Nuggets (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson) all underwent surgery to repair torn ACLs.  Gallinari never saw the floor last year, while JaVale McGee played in just five games.  I believe it's going to take a while for these guys to gel and actually feel comfortable about returning from such serious injuries on the court.

Van Gundy is 357-296 ATS in all games as a head coach.  Van Gundy is 81-55 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.