20* Knicks/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -10

The Utah Jazz will blow the New York Knicks out of the building tonight for several reasons. The first of which is the fact that the Knicks are very short-handed right now, playing without Amare Stoudemire (out), Tyson Chandler (doubtful) and Carmelo Anthony (doubtful). There is a slight chance that Anthony plays tonight, but even if he does I have no doubt the Jazz will cover.

Making matters worse for the Knicks is the fact that they'll be running on fumes tonight. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for New York. Being short-handed makes handling this situation even tougher. Meanwhile, Utah will have a lot of energy to bring to the court considering this will only be its 2nd game in 5 days.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. Utah has serious revenge in mind as it will be looking for payback from an 84-113 loss at New York on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion considering it is 24-8 SU & 20-12 ATS at home this year.

The Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. New York is playing its worst basketball of the season due to these injuries, losing its last four games by 29, 23, 15 and 13 points. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +2.5

The Phoenix Suns should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Los Angeles Lakers. In fact, I fully expect the Suns to blow the Lakers out of the building in this one. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to winning its last two games despite having Kobe Bryant play just 12 minutes in the Indiana victory. He sat out last night's 113-102 home win over Sacramento.

Teams tend to actually play well without their superstar for a few games, but over time they certainly miss him. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Lakers simply do not have enough talent without Kobe to warrant being favored at Phoenix. That's especially the case considering how tired it is.

The Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. That is the toughest possible situation in the NBA, and that's what they're up against tonight. They'll be up against a Phoenix team that absolutely hates them and always seems to play them tough.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last few years. In fact, the home team has won each of the last eight meetings dating back to 2011. Phoenix is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 home meetings with Los Angeles despite being an underdog each time. It won by finals of 92-86, 125-105 and 102-90. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Lakers are 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a ATS win. The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Washington Wizards should not be favored on the road by 6.5 points over any team in the league. Not even the Charlotte Bobcats. I'll gladly fade the 23-42 Wizards, who are just 5-25 on the road this season.

Sure, the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, but as a result the betting public is almost completely off of them. That forces oddsmakers to inflate their lines, which should lead to some great betting opportunities the rest of the way.

Charlotte wants revenge from an 87-104 loss at Washington on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting it considering the Wizards are extremely tired right now. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Washington.

This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Washington is 4-16 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more since 1996. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Roll with Charlotte Monday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued for several reasons heading into this game with the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 13 games overall for one, and for two it is coming off a 99-93 victory at Indiana in a game where Kobe Bryant played just 12 minutes.

Because of this recent run, and that upset of the Pacers, the Lakers have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. The books are asking them to win by double-digits against a pesky Sacramento Kings team tonight to beat us, and I'm just not buying it.

Bryant is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury, and the Lakers clearly aren't as good without him. They can be for one game, but not for two or more. DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for Sacramento, but I like the Kings to cover no matter whether or not he plays. Cousins sat out a 121-79 home victory over Chicago on March 13th last time out, so the Kings have proven they can play without him. That also means that Sacramento comes in on three days' rest having last played on Wednesday.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Sacramento is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Los Angeles. The Lakers always have a way of bringing out the best in the Kings, while Los Angeles always has a way of playing down to its competition. The Lakers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Houston Rockets. In fact, they have lost the first three meetings of the season to Houston, which clearly doesn't sit will with them. At the same time, the Rockets are going to have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Warriors for a 4th time this year.

I'll gladly back the team that's playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. That's especially the case for the Warriors considering all three of their losses to Houston this year have come since February 5th, so in just 1.5 month's time. These losses are fresh in their mind and will be the fuel to the fire that they take to the court tonight.

Golden State is 25-12 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Golden State is coming off a bad home loss to Chicago, so that only has it further motivated tonight. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes made it all the way to the Big Ten Championship in 2012 before falling to Michigan State 64-68. They aren't going to let themselves come up short again in 2013. I look for them to roll to victory over the Wisconsin Badgers, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Ohio State has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. It is a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall, making backers a killing. Somehow, the Buckeyes remain undervalued in the Big Ten title game as they'll deliver the goods once again.

Wisconsin is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for its wins over Michigan and Indiana to get here. Sure, those are two very good teams, but Wisconsin matches up very well with them. Both Indiana and Michigan are offensive-minded, soft teams. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a gritty, defensive team similar to the Badgers. I just believe that Ohio State does it better, especially of late.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +8

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 21-game winning streak. The Toronto Raptors are fully capable of putting an end to it today, but I'm taking the points for some added insurance.

Miami has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that is simply cannot live up to with any consistency because of this streak. It has gone 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games overall during this streak. It has to get the opposing team's best shot each time it takes the court, which will wear on a team over time.

Toronto is a solid 17-16 at home this season. It will certainly be out for revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including a 116-123 (OT) road loss. In fact, the Raptors have now lost 10 straight meetings to the Heat, adding fuel to the fire.

Toronto is 17-6 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Florida SEC Championship No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels should not be catching double-digits in the SEC Championship against the Florida Gators. This team came in knowing it needed to at least make it to the SEC Championship to go on to play in the NCAA Tournament, and it has played its best basketball of the season under these tough circumstances.

I look for Ole Miss to try and take the decision out of the NCAA Tournament committee's hands by trying to upset the Gators this afternoon. It has won four straight coming in, including victories over Alabama and Missouri. It will want revenge from a 64-78 loss at Florida on February 2nd as a 17.5-point underdog. On a neutral court this time around, I look for the Rebels to stay within single-digits and possibly pulling off the upset.

Florida continues to be overvalued due to its torrid start to the season. It was literally killing teams through the first few months, but that hasn't been the case over the past month and a half. In fact, the Gators are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Once again, they remain overvalued as a double-digit favorite in the SEC Championship.

Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Rebels are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings dating back to 2008. Take Ole Miss Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to blow the Memphis Grizzlies out of the building tonight. This is an excellent spot to back the Jazz, who should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Grizzlies. Memphis is in an extremely tough spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are coming off an 80-87 loss at Denver last night. That means this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for Memphis. It certainly showed signs of wearing down last night as it blew a 4th quarter lead.

After losing five of its last six coming into this game, the Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. All five of those losses came on the road with four coming against current playoff teams. Utah will be the fresher team as it comes in on two days' rest. The Jazz are 23-8 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (UTAH) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Spurs UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Saturday as neither team exceeds 100 points in this one.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that each team is going to be without its best player. Cleveland is without leading scorer and assist man Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.7 APG), while San Antonio is without leading scorer and assist man Tony Parker (21.0 PPG, 7.6 APG).

The fact of the matter is that both offenses struggle without their points guards. Cleveland has been held to 97 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, while San Antonio has been limited to 83 and 92 points in its last two games, respectively. And those were against poor defensive teams in the Timberwolves and Mavericks.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 12-4 in Spurs last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Louisville Big East Championship Side on Syracuse +5

This will be the final season for the Syracuse Orange in the Big East. They are making the most of it by giving it one hell of a final run. I look for Jim Boeheim's squad to complete the run by knocking off Louisville in the Big East Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I've been saying since the start of the Big East Tournament that Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in any conference tournament in the country. That has proven to be the case as it has knocked off Seton Hall, Pittsburgh and Big East regular season champ Georgetown along the way.

The road team won both regular season meetings with Syracuse winning 70-68 at Louisville on January 19th, while the Cardinals won 58-53 at the Carrier Dome on March 2nd. As you can see, those two games were decided by a combined 7 points, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well. In fact, four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 5 points or less.

This play falls into a system that is 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on an underdog (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after 2 straight close wins by 3 points or less. Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas Big 12 Championship Side on Kansas State +5

The Kansas State Wildcats will be highly motivated for revenge Saturday as they square off against the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Championship Game. They have lost the first two regular season meetings to the Jayhawks, but I look for them to get payback with an upset victory in the title game. I'll just take the points for some insurance.

Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country that gets hardly any recognition. It is 27-6 on the season, and it is red hot right now. Kansas State has won eight of its last nine games overall, including double-digit victories over Texas (66-49) and Oklahoma State (68-57) in the first two games of the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the land. Time and time again it has escaped with close victories this season. The fact of the matter is that this Kansas team isn't nearly as dominant as some of the Kansas teams of year's past. That was evident when the Jayhawks lost three straight games during the regular season, including a 55-62 setback at TCU.

The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes entered the Big Ten Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. That has continued with a 71-50 victory over Nebraska in their opener. Ohio State has now going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall. No team in the country is playing better right now.

What's most impressive about this run by the Buckeyes is the fact that four of those six victories came against NCAA Tournament contenders. They beat Minnesota (71-45), Michigan State (68-60) and Illinois (68-55) at home. Their most impressive win during this stretch was a 67-58 road victory at Big Ten champ Indiana on March 5th.

Michigan State has just been so-so down the stretch, losing three of its last six games overall. Two of those three wins came against non-NCAA Tournament teams. They played in the late game last night, needing to erase a 30-20 halftime deficit to come back and beat Iowa 59-56. That comeback effort took a lot out of them, and now they'll have to play roughly 17 hours after that game went final.

Ohio State was the better team in the regular season meetings. It lost 56-59 at Michigan State in the first meeting, but came back with a 68-60 home victory in the second. This is personal for the Buckeyes, who lost 68-64 to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship last year. I look for it to get revenge in blowout fashion Saturday.

The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buckeyes. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Oky State/K-State Big 12 BAILOUT on Kansas State PK

The Kansas State Wildcats should be a heavy favorite over the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight. Instead, we're getting them at a pick 'em and I'll take full advantage. The co-Big 12 champs will make easy work of the Cowboys in this one folks.

Oklahoma State has been one of the most lucky teams in the country this season, pulling out more close wins than any other team that comes to mind. That was the case last night in a 74-72 victory over Baylor in their Big 12 Tournament opener. Their luck runs out tonight against a superior Wildcats team that is 26-6 on the season.

What I love most about Kansas State is the fact that it will be out for revenge from a 70-76 loss at Oklahoma State in its regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. The Wildcats will basically have home-court advantage with this game being played in Kansas City, Missouri. It all spells payback tonight folks.

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Kansas State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6

I've been fading the Miami Heat with a ton of success during their current 20-game winning streak. The more games they add onto this streak, the higher the expectations are from the betting public and oddsmakers. This has created excellent line value for their opponents.

There's no question that Miami is going to get everyone's best shot because they are the defending champs, and because of this streak. I believe Milwaukee's best shot is good enough to beat the Heat tonight.

In fact, Milwaukee has played Miami very tough this season. The home team has won each meeting with Miami prevailing 113-106 at home on November 21st, and Milwaukee winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. Off two straight losses, the Bucks are more hungry than every for a victory tonight.

The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Heat. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has actually won four of its last six meetings with Miami outright. The Heat are 13-28 ATS in road games after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996. Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Mavericks UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next three weeks, and it will have a hard time putting points on the board until he returns.

That has been the case in recent games for the Cavaliers as they've scored 97 or less points in five of their last six games overall. Dallas comes in tired as this will be the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. It will not be pushing the tempo on tired legs tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Dallas and Cleveland have combined to score 199 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings. That includes a 103-95 road victory by the Mavericks in their lone meeting this season on November 17th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-2 in Mavericks last 11 vs. NBA Central foes. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6

The Iowa State Cyclones will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game they have played all season. This is personal with the Kansas Jayhawks, as Iowa State was simply robbed of two victories over them during the regular season.

Both regular season meetings went to overtime. Iowa State lost the first at Kansas after a banked 3-pointer went in for the Jayhawks at the end of regulation to force overtime, a complete fluke. Then, the Cyclones blew a late double-digits lead at home and eventually lost in overtime. The Big 12 came out after the game and admitted the refs blew some calls late that cost Iowa State the victory.

I fully expect Iowa State to win outright tonight, but I'm just going to take the points for some added insurance. Kansas is clearly vulnerable after needing overtime to beat the Cyclones twice this year, and after losing 58-81 at Baylor in its regular season finale with the Big 12 title on the line. This isn't the same dominant Jayhawks team from year's past.

Iowa State has won and covered three straight games over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia heading into this one. This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (IOWA ST) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite.

The Cyclones are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 19-6 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 15-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pacers UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers. With Kobe Bryant out for Los Angeles, it is going to be lost offensively tonight. It will have to rely on its defense more to be competitive against the Pacers.

I look for the Lakers to slow the game down to a snail's pace and to run their offense through Dwight Howard to give themselves the best chance to pull off the upset. Getting the ball to Howard takes some time, which will shorten the game considerably.

These teams played in an absolute defensive battle in their first meeting. Indiana won at Los Angeles 79-77 on November 27th for 156 combined points. While I expect more combined points this time around, I do not foresee them coming closer to reaching 190 points.

The Lakers are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER against Central division opponents this season. They are combining with these Central opponents to average 184.9 points/game this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Syracuse/Georgetown ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +2

The Syracuse Orange are the best No. 5 seed of any conference tournament in the country. They have gotten by Seton Hall and Pittsburgh, and now they'll upset the No. 1 seed Georgetown Hoyas Friday night. This game is personal for the Orange.

Georgetown has won the first two meetings with Syracuse this season, both by double-digits. That includes a 61-39 home victory in their regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. There's no question that the Orange are going to be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season as they look for revenge.

At the same time, I fully expect the Hoyas to relax having already beating Syracuse twice by double-digits. They will think they just have to show up to win, and they won't be coming out with the same intensity as the Orange because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 91-47 (65.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SYRACUSE) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.

Syracuse is 20-6 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. The Orange are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Syracuse Friday.

15* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2

The Tennessee Volunteers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. My latest check has them as the final team in the "first four in" category in Joe Lunardi's bracket. That means a loss today to Alabama and they'll likely move down to the "first four out" list. They aren't going to chance that today folks.

Tennessee has been playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get itself in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes four road wins, and home victories over Kentucky (88-58), Florida (64-58) and Missouri (64-62). This is a dangerous team that nobody wants to face right now.

Alabama has been up and down all season. It closed the year with losses in three of its last five games to put itself clearly out of the NCAA Tournament discussion barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Its only wins during that stretch came at home against Auburn and Georgia, and it even needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Bulldogs in its season finale.

The Vols are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Mavs/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued as an 8-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the Mavericks in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'll only take the points for some added insurance.

San Antonio is clearly having problems without Tony Parker. That's evidence by the fact that it has lost two out of its last three in blowout fashion to non-playoff teams in Portland (106-136) and Minnesota (83-107). Now, both Tim Duncan (knee) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) are both questionable heading into this contest with the Mavs.

Don't look now, but Dallas is just 2.5 game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It has won four straight games coming into this contest with the Spurs, including three road victories. Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season right now, but somehow it continues to getting overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public. It is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have already lost twice to San Antonio this season. In fact, they have lost four straight in this series dating back to last year. There's no question that they want revenge tonight folks and I fully expect them to get it against the hobbled Spurs.

Dallas is 51-26 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 23-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -2

The Arkansas Razorbacks represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 SEC Tournament. There won't be a better wagering opportunity than this one folks. I look for the Razorbacks to roll over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the opening round of the conference tourney Thursday.

Arkansas needs this win to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble, and only a deep run in the SEC Tournament will get them in. Vanderbilt is just 14-16 on the season and it has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings with Arkansas winning 56-33 at home on January 12th, and Vanderbilt winning 67-49 at home on February 9th. However, the Razorbacks were in a huge letdown spot heading into their second meeting after beating then-No. 1 Florida 80-69 in their previous game. It was only human nature for them to have such a letdown following such a big win.

Vanderbilt is clearly overvalued due to winning four of its final five games to close out the season. However, all four of those victories came against SEC bottom feeders in Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia. Kevin Stallings is 30-51 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Vanderbilt.

Mike Anderson is 11-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are winning 69.5 to 61.6 in this spot, or by an average of 7.9 points/game. Bet Arkansas Thursday.

20* Big Ten Opening Round ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -5.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, they are the biggest sleeper in this tourney and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win a few games in it. It starts Thursday with a blowout victory over Nebraska.

The Boilermakers won two of their final three games while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in the process. What's most impressive about that is the fact that all three of those teams are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. They won 69-56 at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog, vs. Minnesota 89-73 as a 3-point dog, and lost vs. Michigan 75-80 as a 6.5-point dog.

After playing such tough competition to close out the regular season, the Boilermakers are clearly battle-tested. It will be like playing a high school team when they get to face lowly Nebraska in the opening round. The Huskers are just 14-17 overall, including 5-13 in Big Ten play.

Purdue won 65-56 at Nebraska on January 16th in their lone meeting of the regular season as a 2-point favorite. In fact, the Boilermakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS vs. Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big 12 last year. All three victories have come by 9, 18 and 18 points.

The Boilermakers are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Boilermakers today. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament over the Dayton Flyers. Butler won at Dayton 79-73 in their lone regular season meeting on January 12th. The Flyers (17-13) have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers in the rematch.

Butler (24-7) isn't a complete lock to get into the NCAA Tournament, and it doesn't want to lose this game to give the committee any reason to keep it out of the Big Dance. This team doesn't take games off under the head coaching of Brad Stevens, either.

Stevens is 24-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Butler. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.

Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 10.2 points/game. Roll with Butler Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +2.5

The Syracuse Orange should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round of the Big East Tournament today. In my opinion, Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in the country in all of these conference tournaments. This team is undervalued due to its poor finish to the season.

Sure, Syracuse lost four of its final five games to close out the regular season. However, those four losses came to Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette, which are the three teams in the Big East that finished with the best records.

Pittsburgh won each of its final four games to close out the regular season. A closer look shows that those four victories were unimpressive as all four came against mediocre Big East teams in St. Johns, South Florida, Villanova and DePaul. However, the Panthers are getting respect because of this finish, but as you can see it's unwarranted.

The Orange are going to be out for revenge from a 55-65 loss at Pittsburgh on February 2nd in their lone regular season meeting. Jim Boeheim is 21-9 ATS a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of Syracuse. He gets his teams to play at their highest level at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Panthers have been overvalued after a few dominant performances in a row, which is the case here. The Orange are the better team and that will show on the court today. Take Syracuse Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -1

This is a classic regular season finale rematch spot that I'm going to take advantage of. Boston College beat Georgia Tech 74-72 on March 9th in the regular season finale for both teams. Now, playing each other less than a week later, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets to get revenge on a neutral court this time around.

This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (GEORGIA TECH) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season.

Georgia Tech played very well down the stretch, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall. That includes a 71-69 road victory on March 6th over ACC regular season champ Miami as a 13-point underdog, and a 78-68 home victory over possible NCAA Tournament contender Maryland on February 27th.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off back-to-back embarrassing road losses to Oklahoma City (79-91) and to Charlotte (74-100). I look for the Celtics to put forth one of their best efforts of the season when they host the Toronto Raptors Wednesday.

Paul Pierce did not play against the Bobcats last night as Doc Rivers decided to give him a day off for rest. Pierce will return tonight and will give the team a big lift. Meanwhile, the Raptors are expected to be without their best player in Rudy Gay (back) as he is listed as doubtful with a back injury.

Boston is 22-9 at home this season, while Toronto is just 9-23 on the road. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being a Boston road victory (99-95) in their most recent meeting on February 6th.

The Celtics have won nine straight home meetings with the Raptors all by 6 points or more. This is a perfect 9-0 system backing Boston which dates back to the 2008 season. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hawks UNDER 203.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks are going to be fatigued heading into tonight's game. Each will be playing the second of a back-to-back as the Hawks lost at Miami last night, while the Lakers won at Orlando last night. The tempo will be kept at a snail's pace because of the fatigue.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together as it is. The Lakers and Hawks have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings dating back to 2010. They have combined to average just 183.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Atlanta's last 8 games overall. Not counting overtime, it has combined with each of its last eight opponents for 203 or fewer points at the end of regulation. The Lakers are playing much better defensive of late, limiting the Bulls to 81 points and the Magic to 97 in their last two contests coming in.

Atlanta is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. I'm seeing an average of 186.7 points/game in this spot. The Hawks are 18-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average of 180.3 points/game in this spot. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +9

The Miami Heat are way overvalued as a 9-point road favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have won 19 straight games, which has the betting public all over them. As a result, their numbers are going to be inflated until they lose a game again. That could very easily happen tonight.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams since February 23rd, so they are very familiar with one another. Miami won both meetings with a 114-90 road victory on the 23rd, and a 102-93 home win on March 8th. There's no question that the 76ers want revenge, while the Heat will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they have beaten twice already within the last month.

Philadelphia is playing much better of late as it beat Brooklyn 106-97 at home on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog. While the 76ers have had a day of rest to get ready for Miami, the Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Hawks last night.

The 76ers are 16-5 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -4.5

The Colorado Buffaloes get the nod Wednesday in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament as they take on the Oregon State Beavers. Colorado is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament so it will not be lacking any motivation tonight with its tournament life on the the line.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Buffaloes is the fact that they lost 58-64 at home to Oregon State in their season finale. Now, playing just four days later, I look for the Buffaloes to get revenge in blowout fashion. This is an Oregon State team that is just 14-17 on the season and had lost five straight before that win over Colorado.

Oregon State is 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Colorado is 9-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season. It is coming back to win by an average of 12.7 points/game in this spot. Bet the Buffaloes Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE DAY on Syracuse -12.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this Big East Tournament highly motivated for a victory after the way they closed out their season. It will take out its frustration on Seton Hall, which it beat by 11 points on the road on February 16th by a final of 76-65 in their lone meeting during the regular season.

Syracuse has lost four of its last five games to drop to 23-8 on the season. All four of those losses came against the top three teams in the Big East in Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette. After such a tough stretch to close out the year, there's no question the Orange are going to be battle-tested. It will seem like they're playing a high school team in the Pirates today.

The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Seton Hall is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 neutral site games. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Syracuse is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Syracuse Wednesday.

15* DePaul/Rutgers Big East BAILOUT on Rutgers -3

This one is as easy as it gets folks. The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the worst teams in the entire country and they have zero confidence heading into the Big East Tournament. That's because they come in having lost 15 of their last 16 games overall.

Sure, that one win was against Rutgers at home by a final of 75-69 in their first and only meeting of the regular season. However, that places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode here.

While Rutgers has lost five of its last seven games overall, four of those losses came by single-digits to the likes of DePaul, Villanova, Providence and Marquette. The other was a 13-point loss at Big East champ Georgetown. This team is clearly playing better than DePaul heading into the Big East Tournament.

The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Rutgers is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. DePaul is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights. Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +10

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 18-game winning streak heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks. That has been evident in recent games during this streak as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves in the eyes of the public and thus the oddsmakers.

Off a huge win over Indiana by a final of 105-91 on Sunday, the Heat are in a big letdown spot here. They had lost the previous two meetings this season with Indiana, so they wanted that one pretty badly. They won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to beat a solid Atlanta team by double-digits tonight.

Meanwhile, the Hawks not only come in motivated to put an end to Miami's winning streak, they also want to bounce back following losses in five of their last six games overall with four coming to playoff contenders. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so they'll certainly be ready to go. Plus, Atlanta wants revenge from two earlier losses to Miami this season by finals of 92-101 on December 10th and 90-103 on February 20th after blowing a fourth quarter lead.

Miami is 5-17 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is actually coming back to win in this spot 92.9 to 91.4 on average. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

This is an excellent spot to fade the Brooklyn Nets who are overvalued due to winning three of their last four games overall. Two of those victories came against the Wizards and Bobcats, while the other was a victory over an Atlanta team that was clearly looking ahead to tonight's game against Miami.

My biggest reason for fading Brooklyn tonight is the fact that it is in the toughest situation it can be in. The Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. They started showing signs of wearing down last night, falling 97-106 at Philadelphia despite coming in as a 6.5-point favorite.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. It continues to give max effort every night despite its record, which was evident in a 98-96 home victory over Portland on Sunday. The Hornets want revenge from a 97-101 home loss to Brooklyn on February 26th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting it considering how tired the Nets will be tonight.

The Hornets are 38-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Nets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit home underdog to the Boston Celtics tonight. Sure, Charlotte has gone 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games overall, but as a result the betting public is completely off of them. The books can't set this number high enough to get the public on them.

The Celtics come in overvalued due to going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are coming off a 79-91 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday, which puts them in a hangover situation here. Off such a big loss to a great team, they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte comes in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so it will be ready to go tonight. The Bobcats have proven they can play with the Celtics as each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 12 points or less with Charlotte winning three times. That includes a 94-91 home victory on February 11th in their most recent meeting this season. The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Boston is just 12-19 SU & 12-17-2 ATS in all road games this year. The Celtics are 8-19 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 2-12 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 11-24 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavaliers UNDER 191

The books have clearly set the bar too high in this contest between the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in this contest. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next 3-4 weeks, and until he returns the Cavs are going to struggle offensively.

Washington has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 95.1 points/game overall this season, including 90.4 points/game in its last five games. However, the Wizards are scoring a mere 91.7 points/game this season, including a woeful 86.4 points/game on the road.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the Wizards and Cavaliers. In fact, each of the last four meetings have seen 187 or fewer points. They have combined to average 179.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game with the Orlando Magic way overvalued due to their recent run. Los Angeles has won eight of its last ten games overall to get to 33-31 on the season and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The betting public has flocked to them, providing us with ample value to back the Magic tonight.

Los Angeles has a way of always playing to its competition. Only three of its eight wins during this run have come against teams with winning records. The Lakers had to come from behind to beat both the Hornets and Raptors in two of their last three games. They are just 11-20 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road this season with just five of those wins coming by more than 7 points.

Orlando has gotten healthy here of late and it is playing better basketball because of it. It has won two of its last four games with a 105-102 victory at New Orleans, and a 99-9-1 triumph at home over Philadelphia. It also lost 96-97 at Miami as a 15.5-point underdog after a last-second layup by Lebron James.

This team is fully capable of playing with the Lakers, and it showed that by winning in Los Angeles 113-103 as a 13.5-point dog on December 2nd in their first meeting of the season. In fact, the Magic have now won four of their last five meetings with the Lakers, including three straight home meetings. The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Los Angeles is 1-12 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot by 7.7 points/game on average. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. Los Angeles is 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* USF/Seton Hall Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK

Remember, the South Florida Bulls made the NCAA Tournament last year due to a hot finish to the season. They returned several players from that team this year. While an NCAA Tournament appearance is highly unlikely in 2013, this team comes into the Big East Tournament playing its best basketball of the season.

South Florida has won two of its last three games with its only loss coming at Cincinnati in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog. It beat DePaul 83-73 at home before destroying a very good Connecticut team 65-51 at home as well. This team is certainly feeling good about itself heading into this showdown with the Pirates.

Seton Hall has lost 11 of its last 12 games overall with its only victory coming by a single point at home over Villanova. While the Bulls are hot entering the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are certainly ice cold and lacking confidence. I believe you will see that play out on the court tonight as the Bulls roll and get revenge from their 47-55 loss at Seton Hall in their lone meeting of the season on January 23rd.

South Florida is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. It is beating these teams 70.8 to 59.3, or by an average of 11.5 points/game. Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. It is losing in this spot 58.3 to 68.2, or by an average of 9.9 points/game. The Bulls are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with South Florida Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors have certainly been struggling of late. They have lost 12 of their last 17 games overall to fall to 35-29 on the season after a torrid start. However, their recent struggles are the reason I really believe this team is way undervalued right now as only a 3-point home favorite over New York.

Not only will the Warriors be motivated to get back on track, they'll also want payback from a 105-109 loss at New York on February 27th in their first meeting of the season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting revenge considering the Knicks have played their last three games without Carmelo Anthony (knee), and he's questionable to return tonight.

Also, Amare Stoudemire (knee) has been pronounced out for the next 4-6 weeks. Golden State is 20-9 at home this season, so it certainly has a solid home-court advantage this year. It won its last home meeting with New York by a final of 92-78.

The Knicks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Suns OVER 209.5

I look for an absolute shootout tonight in Phoenix as the Suns host the high-scoring Denver Nuggets. Denver is one of the top scoring teams in the league at 105.8 points/game. However, the Nuggets give up 104.3 points/game defensively, so I look for the Suns to put up a big number as well.

Denver's biggest reason for being so efficient offensively is its ability to get in the paint at will. It is one of the top scoring teams in the league in the paint. That's a big factor here considering the Suns will be playing without two of their best post players in Marcin Gortat and Jermaine O'Neal. The Nuggets have scored 104 or more points in nine straight games.

Phoenix has been forced to play small ball, which hurts its defense, but helps its offense. That was evident in a 107-105 home victory over the Houston Rockets last time out on Saturday, and a 112-121 loss at Sacramento the night before on Friday.

This has already been a high-scoring series in recent meetings, and I look for that to be the case again tonight. Phoenix beat Denver 110-100 at home in their first meeting of the season on November 12th for 210 combined points. Denver beat Phoenix 118-107 on the road in their final meeting of last season for 225 combined points.

Denver is 13-2 to the OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Nuggets are 9-1 to the OVER in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 games overall. The OVER is 21-8 in Nuggets last 29 road games. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight as they meet for a third time this season. With Tony Parker out for the Spurs, their offense simply isn't going to be as dynamic as it was before he got hurt.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have combined for 206 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, including 200 and 170 points in their two meetings this season. With the Thunder tired and playing their 4th game in 5 days, and the Spurs without Parker, I look for the final combined score of this one to easily stay under 208 with room to spare.

This play falls into a system that is 42-11 (79.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 105 points or more this season. I'm seeing an average of 187.3 points/game in this spot for the Spurs and their opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat UNDER 189.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest. This is a huge Eastern Conference showdown between two of the best teams in the conference. I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively, which will keep the final combined score UNDER 190.

Indiana matches up really well with Miami. That's why it has beaten the Heat in both meetings this season, limiting them to 77 and 89 points, respectively. Paul George and Lance Stephenson combine to guard Lebron James and Dwayne Wade as well as another other team in the league, which is why Indiana has shut them down this season.

This play falls into a system that is 70-31 (69.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

The UNDER is 18-6 in Heat last 24 Sunday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Pacers last 10 road games. Indiana is 43-26 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -8

According to Joe Lunardi's bracketology, the Virginia Cavaliers are the first team listed in the "First Four Out" category. That means this is an extremely important game for them, and as a result I look for them to roll at home today over the Maryland Terrapins.

While Virginia has a ton to play for, Maryland comes in deflated after giving away its chances of making the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks. The Terrapins have lost four of their last seven with ugly road losses to Georgia Tech (68-78) and Boston College (58-69), as well as double-digit home losses to UNC (68-79) and Virginia (80-69).

After already beating the Terrapins by 11 on the road, I have no doubt the Cavaliers can win the rematch by 9-plus at home this time around. That's because Virginia is 17-0 SU & 13-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points/game. Maryland is just 3-6 in true road games this year.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Virginia is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Sunday.

15* Indiana/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan Money Line -125

The Michigan Wolverines can clinch a share of the Big Ten title with a win over the Indiana Hoosiers at home Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance at home this season and to get revenge on the Hoosiers from a 73-81 road loss in their first meeting this season.

Michigan is a perfect 17-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.1 points/game at home this year. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings dating back to 2009.

The Wolverines are 22-7 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997. The Hoosiers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take Michigan on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on North Carolina -1.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels want revenge from a 68-73 loss at Duke as a 10.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on February 9th. I look for them to have their payback at home this time around as these Tobacco Road rivals square off Saturday night on ESPN at 9:00 EST.

North Carolina has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Duke. It has gone a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six games since with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. The Tar Heels won road games at Georgia Tech (70-58), Clemson (68-59), and Maryland (79-68), while also beating Virginia (93-81), NC State (76-65) and Florida State (77-58) at home during this stretch.

The Tar Heels are a sensational 14-1 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.0 points/game at home this year. Their only home loss came to current ACC leader Miami, which obviously looking back really isn't that bad of a defeat.

Duke is only 4-4 on the road this season. It has road losses to NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90), Maryland (81-83) and Virginia (68-73). This is only a mediocre Blue Devils team when they get away from Cameron Indoor.

Duke is 0-6 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival this season. UNC is 8-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. UNC is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

15* Kansas/Baylor ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Kansas -3

At 14-3 in the Big 12 this season, the Kansas Jayhawks are tied with the Kansas State Wildcats atop the conference standings. They can clinch at least a share of their 9th straight Big 12 title with a win over the Baylor Bears Saturday. These Jayhawk players DO NOT want to break tradition, so they'll be laying it all on the line not only for themselves, but every former Jayhawk that helped keep this streak going.

Kansas has won seven straight while going 7-0 ATS in the process to put itself in this position. While the Jayhawks have been rolling and come in with a ton of confidence, the Bears have lost five of their last six with their only victory coming 65-62 over lowly West Virginia.

This poor run to close out the season has put Baylor on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and not even a win over Kansas would put it on the right side of the bubble. As a result, I look for the Bears to come out flat today and for the more hungry Jayhawks to run away with this one.

Baylor is 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Baylor winning by 14, 20, 10, 26, 20 and 21 points. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Colorado -8

While the Colorado Buffaloes (20-9) are coming off a big 76-52 home victory over the Oregon Ducks on Thursday night, they are still squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. There's no question they realize this, and as a result they won't allow themselves to overlook lowly Oregon State Saturday.

Colorado is playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple months. It has won nine of its last 12 games overall with two of its three losses coming by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points/game.

Oregon State (13-17) has clearly packed it in. It has lost five straight games, including a 61-72 loss at lowly Utah on Thursday to really prove that it doesn't want to be playing right now. Four of its five losses during this skid have come by double-digits, so the Beavers haven't even been competitive. Don't expect them to start Saturday.

Colorado is 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. It is winning in this spot by 14.7 points/game. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Colorado has won its last three home meetings with Oregon State by 22, 26 and 15 points. Bet Colorado Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +1

The Tennessee Volunteers represent my strongest college basketball release for the entire 2012-13 season Saturday when they host the Missouri Tigers. This is a must-win game for Tennessee as it is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. It won't be lacking any motivation today because of it.

Tennessee has played its best basketball of the season over the past month just to put itself in this position, and I look for it to continue today. The Vols have won seven of their last eight to get to 18-11 on the season. That includes four road wins and three impressive home victories over Kentucky (88-58), LSU (82-72) and Florida (64-58).

The Vols are now 12-3 at home this season. A big reason I'm backing them is the fact that Missouri is a terrible road team. The Tigers are just 2-7 in true road games this season with their only wins coming against SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State and South Carolina, who are a combined 7-27 in conference play this season.

Tennessee is 23-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Vols are 10-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Vols are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -12.5

The Miami Hurricanes are undervalued Saturday as only a 12.5-point favorite over the lowly Clemson Tigers. That's because they are coming off an ugly last-second home loss to Georgia Tech by a final of 69-71 on Wednesday as a 13-point favorite. A closer look shows why they lost that game.

Miami was coming off a heartbreaking 76-79 loss at Duke, so it was in a hangover situation. Also, the Hurricanes knew in the back of their minds that they could afford to lose that game to the Yellow Jackets with this contest against Clemson looming. They are still one game ahead of Duke in the ACC title race, so a win today will mean they'll be crowned conference champs.

The Hurricanes certainly won't be lacking any motivation with the ACC title on the line. They'll also be hungry to send their seniors out with one final home victory on Senior Day. This is a senior-led team as Kenny Kadji (13.3 PPG), Durand Scott (13.2), Trey McKinney Jones (9.1), Reggie Johnson (8.0) and Julian Gamble (6.6) will all be playing their final home game Saturday. These are five of Miami's top six scorers!

Losers of five straight and eight of their last nine overall, the Clemson Tigers have clearly given up on their season. That includes ugly losses in their last two games with a 61-69 setback at Virginia Tech, and a 61-68 home loss to Boston College. This team simply does not want to be playing in this game today.

Miami is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 14.2 points/game in this spot. The Hurricanes are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Saturday games. Clemson is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Saturday game. Take Miami Saturday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa -12.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are certainly one of the last few teams out if the season were to end today, so they need this win over Nebraska, and maybe a win in the Big Ten Tournament to get in. I look for them to take care of step No. 1 in blowout fashion today.

Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 19-11 because it has so many close losses this season. That includes a 60-64 loss at Nebraska on February 23rd in their first meeting of the season in which the Hawkeyes blew a 41-25 halftime lead. That also puts Iowa in revenge mode today.

Iowa is 15-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.3 points/game. Its only home losses came to Indian and Michigan State by a combined 7 points! This team quietly has one of the best home-court advantages in the league, which makes them continuously undervalued at home.

Nebraska is coming off a big 53-51 home victory over Minnesota as an 8-point underdog. That win really made their season, and now they are in a huge letdown spot here. That's especially the case considering they've already beaten Iowa this season, so they won't be interested at all in this game.

In fact, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 22.0 points/game. The Huskers are 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 18.5 points/game. Iowa is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, winning by 15.0 points/game in this situation. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -8

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They know they cannot afford to lose this game against Texas A&M Saturday if they want any chance of getting in. That's why I look for the Crimson Tide to put forth an inspired effort as they continue their dominance at home this season.

Arkansas is a sensational 17-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 points/game. Its home wins include Kentucky (73-60), Missouri (73-71), Florida (80-69) and Tennessee (73-60), so it has beaten four of the top teams in the conference, including three by double-digits.

Texas A&M has watched its NCAA Tournament hopes slip away by losing three of their last four games overall, including an ugly 57-68 home loss to LSU on Wednesday. That defeat showed that the Aggies had packed it in, and I fully expect them to lay down for the Razorbacks in what will be one of the biggest blowouts on the board Saturday.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by 10.9 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 14.6 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are squarely on the bubble and need this win to get into the NCAA Tournament. A win and they're almost certainly in, while a loss would leave a lot of work to do in the Big 12 Tournament. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Iowa State (20-10) is the definition of a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has several close, heartbreaking losses this season, including a pair of overtime losses to Kansas in which the Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer at the end of regulation, and the refs blew foul calls down the stretch of the other defeat.

West Virginia is simply one of the worst teams in the Big 12 at 13-17 on the season. It has given up on its season for a while now, losers of five straight coming into this one. Four of those five losses came by double-digits, including a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 setback at Kansas.

The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts this season. Iowa State is 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Cyclones. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +5.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are deadlocked in a tie with rival Kansas for the best record in the Big 12. Both teams are 14-3, and the Wildcats would love nothing more than to clinch at least a share of the conference title. They would win it outright with a win and a Jayhawk loss at Baylor later in the day.

While Kansas State certainly won't be lacking any motivation today, you have to question Oklahoma State's mental state of mind coming in. The Cowboys lost 76-87 at Iowa State on Wednesday to drop to 12-5 in the Big 12, a full two games back of both Kansas and Kansas State. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat knowing that they cannot win at least a share of the Big 12 title now.

Oklahoma State is 2-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. The Wildcats are 7-2 SU in true road games this season. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 24-38 record, but arguably not team in the league has suffered as many close losses this season as Toronto.

The Lakers always have a way of playing down to their competition. That was the case again at New Orleans on Wednesday as they had to rally from 25 points down to come back and win 108-102. They closed that game on a 20-0 run to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. Off such an emotional win, look for the Lakers to suffer a letdown tonight against these Raptors.

Toronto has played Los Angeles very tough in recent meetings. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, including a 108-103 home victory for Toronto on January 20th in their first meeting this season. Look for this game to go right down to the wire again tonight and to be decided by 7 or less either way. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Lakers are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs come into this game way overvalued due to their dominance in their first two games without star point guard Tony Parker. They beat lowly Detroit 114-75 and a banged up Chicago team 101-83 at home in their last two contests.

Teams can play without stars for a few games, but over time it starts to take its toll. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Spurs are up against a desperate Portland Trail Blazers team that is fighting to stay alive in the Western Conference playoff race at 28-32 on the season.

Portland has played well of late, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has gone 3-3 SU during this span, with all three losses coming by 6 points or less to the Lakers (107-111), Nuggets (109-111) and Grizzlies (85-91), which are three of the best teams in the West.

The Blazers have actually had the Spurs' number in recent years. Portland has won five of the last eight meetings in this series, including a 98-90 home victory as a 7-point underdog in their most recent meeting on December 13th. This team obviously matches up well with San Antonio, and it clearly isn't afraid of the Spurs.

This play falls into a system that is 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. The Blazers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Portland Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 16-game winning streak. I faded them with success in a 97-96 home victory over the Orlando Magic as a 15.5-point underdog on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again tonight as a double-digit favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers.

When you win so many games in a row it's only human nature to get a little bit lazy and think that it's easy. That's why the Heat nearly got upset by the Magic on Wednesday, and it's why I would not be surprised one bit to see Philadelphia upset them tonight.

The 76ers are in revenge mode following a 90-114 home loss to Miami on February 23rd just two weeks ago. The 76ers were really banged up at that point, but Thaddeus Young, who is arguably their best player, has returned since. Philly will be motivated for revenge and to put an end to their current 3-game skid.

This play falls into a system that is 67-28 (70.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia is 53-30 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The 76ers are 14-4 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 4-16 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

This is the perfect opportunity to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league against the spread all season, but I have no problem backing them tonight considering how tough a spot this is for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days tonight. After beating the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks n its last three contests, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder. Plus, they will be fatigued, so they won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to win this game by 15-plus points tonight.

Because Charlotte is the worst team in the league against the spread, that means the betting public will be fading them from here on out. That provides us with ample value to back the Bobcats at a great price tonight. They will be out for revenge for an embarrassing 69-114 loss at Oklahoma City in their first meeting of the season on November 26th as well.

This play falls into a system that is 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to be on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Also, Oklahoma City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. Take the Bobcats Friday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing solid value as a 4.5-point underdog tonight against the Denver Nuggets in a game that will go right down to the wire. I fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Denver comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak. Four of those six wins came against teams with losing records. Now, the Nuggets will meet their match tonight in the Clippers. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games overall with its only losses coming to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, which are top two teams in the Western Conference.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Clippers considering they have won six of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011, which includes a 2-1 road mark. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Denver. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

This lay falls into a system that is 72-28 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (LA CLIPPERS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.

The Clippers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -2

The Utah Utes have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season. This is a team that has beaten the likes of Washington on the road, and Colorado and Arizona State at home. It has also taken Arizona down to the wire in both meetings, falling by just 3 points on the road and 4 at home to the Wildcats.

Utah is a respectable 9-7 at home this season. It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-6 in true road games this year. It will also be out for revenge on the Beavers after losing the first meeting 64-82 on the road on February 6th.

It appears Oregon State has given up on its season. It has lost four straight with three of those coming by double-digits to drop to 13-16 on the year. It is also coming off a big loss at in-state rival Oregon, setting the Beavers up for a letdown spot here.

Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. Take Utah Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -2.5

The Colorado Buffaloes (19-9) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize that a home win over Oregon tonight would go a long way in to putting them on the right side of that bubble. That's why the Buffaloes won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

Colorado is 11-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. It has impressive home wins over the likes of Colorado State (70-61), Stanford (75-54), Cal (81-71) and Arizona (71-58). Oregon is actually getting outscored on the road this season with losses to the likes of Cal (54-58), Stanford (52-76) and UTEP (84-91).

The Buffaloes have won three of their last four meetings with the Ducks. Colorado is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* Stanford/Cal ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -5

The Cal Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country. They should be a much heavier home favorite over Stanford tonight because of it. The Bears will be out for revenge tonight from a 59-69 loss at Stanford on January 19th in their first meeting of the season, so they have plenty of reason to be motivated.

Cal has won seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall coming in. That includes two wins over Oregon, a victory at Arizona, and home victories over UCLA and Colorado. The Bears have gotten to 20-9 on the season to put themselves on the right side of the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

Stanford has lost four of its last six games to drop to 17-13 on the season. It is now on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with almost zero chance of getting in. That's why I look for it to fold tonight and to not even show up as it travels to face the Bears. The Cardinal are just 4-6 in true road games this year.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bears is the fact that they are just one-half game back of both Oregon and UCLA for the Pac-12 title. They'll be motivated for that, plus this is their final home game of the season, which means it's Senior Night. They certainly want to send their seniors out with one final victory and keep their momentum as they head into the Pac-12 Tournament.

Cal is 7-0 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Cal is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Cal Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls should not be catching this many points against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. San Antonio played well in its first game without Tony Parker with a 114-75 home victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons. It is now overvalued heading into its second straight game without Parker because of it.

Parker has arguably been as valuable a player to his team as any other player in the league. A good team like the Bulls will be able to exploit the loss of Parker in this one.

Chicago is one of the most resilient teams in the league. Off a 92-97 loss at Indiana on Sunday, and looking for revenge from an 89-103 home loss to the Spurs in their first meeting of the season on February 11th, I look for a tremendous effort from the Bulls tonight.

Tom Thibodeau is 45-24 ATS off a loss as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season. It is coming back to win 96.1 to 85.2 in this spot, or by an average of 10.9 points/game. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* WVU/Oklahoma ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma -10

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been coming on very strong to close out the season to put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They also realize that a loss to West Virginia tonight could put them on the wrong side, so they won't be lacking any motivation heading into this one.

Oklahoma has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall which includes impressive home wins over Kansas (72-66), Baylor (90-76) and Iowa State (86-69). Its only losses came in overtime on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas.

West Virginia has essentially packed it in as it has lost four straight while going 1-3 ATS in the process. Its losses include a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 road loss to Kansas. Oklahoma already beat WVU 67-57 on the road on January 5th in their first meeting of the season, and I like its chances of winning by 11-plus at home this time around.

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. The Mountaineers are just 3-8 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.6 points/game. Their three road wins have all come against Big 12 bottom feeders in TCU, Texas Tech and Texas.

This is Senior Night for the senior-led Sooners, which only adds to their motivation. Their top two scorers are seniors in Romero Osby (15.2 PPG) and Steven Pledger (11.9). Role players Andrew Fitzgerald (5.8 PPG) and Sam Grooms (4.8 PPG) are also seniors. Look for everyone to rally and try to get these guys one final home win tonight.

The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +3.5

The UConn Huskies are starting to realize that they cannot play in the postseason due to their postseason ban this year. I think it's starting to wear on these players, as evidenced by their recent performances. They are 19-9 on the season and would be an NCAA Tournament team if they were eligible.

The Huskies have lost back-to-back games coming in with setbacks to Georgetown and Cincinnati. I look for them to drop a third straight against a South Florida team that proved it wasn't going to quit on its season with a much-needed 83-73 home victory over DePaul last time out to stop the bleeding.

There's no question the Bulls will be the more motivated team tonight considering this is Senior Night for them. This is a senior-led team as two of their top three scorers are seniors in Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (10.4 PPG) and Jawanza Poland (9.1 PPG). Look for these South Florida players to rally and get Fitzpatrick and Poland a big win in the final home game of their careers.

UConn is 4-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. South Florida is 48-28 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with UConn dating back to 2008. Three of those six games went to overtime, including a 69-64 (OT) home win by the Huskies in their first meeting this season on February 3rd, which places the Bulls in revenge mode. Roll with South Florida Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Florida -18

The Florida Gators have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight to bury Vanderbilt. They are one win away from clinching their fourth outright SEC championship and second in three years. I believe they actually come into this game undervalued due to going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Commodores are overvalued after winning three straight over SEC bottom feeders Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn.

Adding to the Gators' motivation is the fact that this is Senior Night. This is certainly a senior-led team as its top three scorers are all seniors in Mike Rosario (12.9 PPG), Kenny Boynton (12.5) and Erik Murphy (12.4). Look for huge games from this trio as their teammates rally around them.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.5 points/game. Vanderbilt is just 13-15 on the season, including 5-9 in all road games. This team has no chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Gators bunch tonight.

Vanderbilt is 6-19 ATS after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1997. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Bet Florida Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic are showing awesome value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat. I'll gladly back them at this price in a game that I look to be close throughout.

Miami is clearly overvalued due to its current 15-game winning streak coming in. It has created expectations for itself in the eyes of the betting public and thus oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to.

Orlando has played Miami tough in recent meetings. Each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13 points or less, and two of the last three went to overtime. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Magic dating back to 2010.

Miami is 4-15 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Magic are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the Heat. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and I look for both defenses to prevail by game's send as neither team tops 95 points in this one.

Philadelphia allows 95.9 points/game while Atlanta yields 96.7 points/game this season. The 76ers really struggle offensively, scoring 92.1 points/game overall, including 90.2 points/game on the road. Atlanta puts up 97.4 points/game this season. Philly has scored 93 or fewer points in 13 of its last 15 games overall. It has also allowed less than 100 points in 12 of its last 15 games overall.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 185 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 179, 185, 185 and 166 points in their last four meetings, averaging 178.8 points/game in the process.

The UNDER is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. These three trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Indiana Pacers would have to beat the Boston Celtics by double-digits tonight to hand us a loss. I'll take my chances by backing these red-hot Celtics at a great price tonight.

Boston is 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall. This team remains underrated because it is playing without Rajon Rondo, but that loss has only brought this team closer together. The offense has really been clicking, averaging 102.4 points/game in their last five contests.

"That's the new us in a lot of ways, the ball finds the open guy," head coach Doc Rivers said. "It's simple, but it's hard to do unless you buy in. Everyone has bought in."

Sure, this is a back-to-back situation for Boston off a 109-101 win at Philadelphia last night, but it's really a non-factor despite clearly getting factored into this line. That's because it will still only be the 2nd game in 5 days for Boston as it last played on March 1st prior to that win over the 76ers. The Celtics won't be fatigued at all tonight.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Celtics. They have won three straight and eight of their last 11 meetings with the Pacers. The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -3

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a must-win situation tonight against Oklahoma State. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over these Cowboys tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble.

Iowa State will be out for revenge following a last-second 76-78 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting. I like its chances of getting payback tonight considering how well this team has played at home all season and even dating back to last year.

The Cyclones have won 22 of their last 23 home games since last season. Their lone loss was a fluke OT loss to Kansas on February 25th in which the refs completely blew the game, and Big 12 officials came back and admitted that.

This will be Senior Night for the Cyclones with Chris Babb, Korie Lucious, Will Clyburn and Tyrus McGee all laying it on the line to try and get a win in the final home game of their career inside magical Hilton Coliseum. These are four of Iowa State's top six scorers, combining to average nearly 48 points/game!

The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2005. Iowa State is 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* UNC/Maryland ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland PK

The Maryland Terrapins are a team squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament right now. A win over UNC tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble. I like their chances of picking up a "W" considering how well they have played at home this year.

Maryland is 20-9 overall and a brilliant 16-2 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 14.2 points/game at home this year. Its home wins include NC State and Duke.

North Carolina is just 6-6 on the road this season. It comes in overvalued due to its current five-game winning streak. With rival Duke on deck, the Tar Heels will be overlooking the Terrapins and looking ahead to that matchup with the Blue Devils.

UNC is 2-9 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-14 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 25-8 ATS in home games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Syracuse -18.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this game with DePaul highly motivated for a victory. They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak coming in with losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville, which are the three teams with the best records in the Big East.

Now, they get to face Big East punching bag DePaul to get back on track. The Blue Demons have lost four straight and 13 of their last 14 overall with their lone win coming at home over Rutgers. Syracuse has won its last two meetings with DePaul 87-68 on the road, and 107-59 at home.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Orange is the fact that this will be Senior Night. That means that they'll be honoring two of their top three scorers in Brandon Triche (14.2 PPG) and James Southerland (13.8 PPG). Look for this team to rally around each other and put an end to this skid while also getting these seniors one final home win by 20-plus points.

DePaul is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 22.7 points/game. The Orange are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by 22.9 points/game. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Kings UNDER 223

The books have clearly set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings. The betting public has been jumping all over the OVER in this contest, providing us with ample value to go against the grain and back the UNDER tonight folks.

Just one look at the season averages for these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Denver is scoring 105.5 points/game and allowing 101.6 points/game this season, combining with its opponents for 207.1 points/game. Sacramento is scoring 98.5 points/game and allowing 104.9 points/game, combining with its foes for 203.4 points/game.

A look at the recent history between these teams and it's also easy to see that the number is inflated. Not counting overtime, Sacramento and Denver have combined for 219 or fewer points in seven straight meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 205.7 points/game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors lower-scoring games. Denver won both meetings 121-93 at home and 122-97 on the road. The first meeting had a posted total of 204.5, with the second being 212.5. Now, in the third meeting, the books have set the number 18.5 points higher (223), providing us with plenty of value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Kansas State -21

Looking to regain a share of the conference lead, the Kansas State Wildcats will absolutely crush the TCU Horned Frogs at home tonight. This is also Senior Night for the Wildcats, meaning this will be the final home game for leading scorer Rodney McGruder (14.9 PPG) as well as Jordan Henriquez and Martavious Irving.

Kansas State clearly wont be lacking any motivated tonight as it looks to build on its 15-1 home record this year. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game at home. TCU is just 1-9 in true road games, getting outscored by 16.2 points/game.

TCU made its season by beating Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog. It has clearly packed it in since and is simply playing out its season. That's evident by the fact that the Horned Frogs are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which includes losses at Oklahoma (48-75), Iowa State (53-87) and Kansas (48-74).

The Horned Frogs are 0-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Notre Dame -9.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a ton of reasons to be motivated for a victory tonight over the St. Johns Red Storm. I like their chances of getting a double-digit blowout victory with everything they have working in their favor tonight.

First, this is Senior Night for the Fighting Irish. Jack Cooley should be motivated for his final home game on what figures to be an emotional night since sixth-year forward Scott Martin will also be honored. Martin has been shut down indefinitely since Jan. 21 due to his recurring knee problems.

Cooley was held scoreless for the first time in 57 games in a 72-64 loss at then-No. 22 Marquette on Saturday. He hadn't practiced the previous two days and was on an IV because of the flu. He played just 15 minutes against the Golden Eagles before being shut down as he simply wasn't himself. Healthy now, and motivated to bounce back from that defeat, I look for a huge game from Cooley in this one.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Fighting Irish have lost three straight to St. Johns heading into this one, including a 63-67 road loss to the Red Storm in their first meeting of the season on January 15th. All three of their losses during this skid have come on the road, but the Irish return home for revenge.

Notre Dame is 16-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.9 points/game. St. Johns is just 4-6 in true road games this season. The Red Storm figure to be an easier opponent Tuesday as losers of four of five. D'Angelo Harrison, averaging 17.8 points to rank among the conference's leaders, was suspended for the rest of the season Friday by coach Steve Lavin.

St. Johns is 0-7 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Red Storm are 1-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Irish. Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Irish winning each of their last three home meetings by 13 points or more. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Clemson -4

The Boston College Eagles are coming off a big come-from-behind 53-52 home victory over NCAA Tournament contender Virginia on Sunday. Off such a huge upset, I look for the Eagles to fail to show up tonight when they travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers for a second time this season.

Clemson has every reason to be motivated tonight. It wants revenge from a 68-75 loss at Boston College on February 2nd in their first meeting of the season. This is also Senior Night for the Tigers as they clearly want to send out their seniors with one final home victory.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Boston College and Clemson. In fact, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2003 with the Tigers being the only team to nab a road win in 2009. Clemson is 5-0 in its last 5 home meetings with Boston College dating back to 2003. All five victories have come by 8 points or more and by an average of 16 points/game.

The Tigers are 31-13 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Clemson is 58-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3.5

This is a must-win game for the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. At 18-11 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play, Iowa needs a big finish to get into the NCAA Tournament. It needs a win tonight, at home against Nebraska, and in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and it will likely be in as it would move above .500 in the brutal Big Ten.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to having won six of its last seven games overall. Most of those victories have come against Big Ten bottom feeders in Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska. This team should not be getting this much respect on the road tonight.

That's especially the case considering how well Iowa has played at home this season. It is 14-2 inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.8 points/game. It has home wins over NCAA Tournament contenders in Minnesota (72-51), Wisconsin (70-66) and Iowa State (80-71).

Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with the Toronto Raptors highly motivated for a victory. They want to get back on track following a tough 5-game road trip in which they lost their final four games. I like their chances of getting back on track in a big way against this struggling Raptors squad.

Toronto has lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS in the process in its last four games. All four losses came by 6 points or more. It was playing without Rudy Gay (back) in a 114-122 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday, and he is questionable to return tonight. I like the Warriors to roll regardless of whether or not Gay plays. If he's out it would only be an added bonus.

Golden State has been dominant at home this season. It is 18-7 SU & 15-10 ATS in all home games this year. That's not good new for the Raptors, who are just 8-21 in all road games this year. The Warriors won the first meeting 114-102 with the Raptors on January 28th on the road. I like for them to put a similar beat down on Toronto at home this time around.

Golden State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Raptors are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Golden State. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Golden State. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing arguably their best value of the season as a double-digit home underdog to the Miami Heat. They come in undervalued due to their current 5-game losing streak which has seen four of those losses come on the road. The other was a 99-100 home loss to Western Conference playoff contender, Golden State.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its 14-game winning streak. They won No. 14 in a row Sunday at New York as they erased a double-digit halftime deficit. That was a huge win for the Heat as they had lost the previous two meetings with the Knicks this season. Now, playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, the Heat are in for a big letdown tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Timberwolves are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Cincinnati/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +11

The Cincinnati Bearcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit road underdog to the Louisville Cardinals Monday night. I like Cincinnati to cover this spread for a number of reasons tonight with the biggest being their play on the road this year.

The Bearcats have played their best basketball away from home during the 2012-13 season. They are 8-4 in all road games this year with wins over the likes of Iowa State (78-70), Oregon (77-66), Xavier (60-45), and Pittsburgh (70-61). They also played Syracuse to a 2-point game (55-57) as an 8.5-point underdog.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot off their upset 58-53 road victory over the Orange on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be very though for Louisville to come back and give the kind of effort it will take to beat these feisty Bearcats by more than 11 points.

Louisville is known for its press which can give teams fits. However, Cincinnati has the perfect antidote with two of the best guards in the country. Leading scorers Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 PPG) and Cashmere Wright (12.6 PPG) will have no problem handling this press. Also, third-leading scorer JaQuon Parker (11.0 PPG) can handle the ball as well. Cincinnati is one of the few teams that is lucky enough to have its three best players being guards.

This play falls into a system that is 45-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less.

When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see why I'm taking the points tonight. Each of the last seven meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 9 points or less. Cincinnati has won four of those seven contests outright. That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the double-digit underdog Bearcats tonight.

The Bearcats are 10-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5

The Michigan Wolverines come into this game with the overrated Michigan State Spartans highly motivated for a victory. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead at Penn State on February 27th by a final of 78-84. That was the Nittany Lions' first conference win of the season.

It's clear the Michigan was looking ahead to this game against its biggest rival in the Spartans. It wants serious revenge from an ugly 52-75 loss at Michigan State in its first meeting of the season on February 12th. You won't see these Wolverines' players and this crowd more fired up than what they will be today throughout the rest of the season.

I really like Michigan's chances of bouncing back from that loss to Penn State and getting revenge in blowout fashion considering how well it has played at home this year. It is a perfect 16-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.4 points/game.

Michigan State is 3-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997. Michigan is 40-23 ATS in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Michigan. Take Michigan Sunday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Boston College +4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are in a huge letdown spot Sunday as they travel to face the Boston College Eagles. That's because the Cavaliers are coming off their biggest win of the season on Thursday with a 73-68 victory over Duke. That win almost certainly cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament, which is why they are ripe for a letdown here.

Boston College has quietly been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season with several close losses on the year. I have no doubt this team is better than its 12-16 record would indicate. It will be out for revenge after a 51-65 loss at Virgina in their first meeting on January 26th.

The Eagles have been solid at home this season. They have gone 10-6 at home with wins over the likes of Clemson, Wake Forest, Providence and Maryland. They also have close home losses to the likes of NC State (73-78) as a 7.5-point dog, Miami (59-60) as a 6-point dog and Duke (61-62) as an 11-point dog.

While Virginia has been one of the best home teams in the country, it has simply been atrocious on the road this year. The Cavaliers are 3-7 in all road games this season with some ugly losses to the likes of George Mason (59-63), Wake Forest (52-55), Clemson (44-59), Georgia Tech (60-66) and UNC (81-93).

This play falls into a system that is 161-89 (64.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.

Boston College is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Boston College is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. The Cavaliers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Roll with Boston College Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game with the Oklahoma City Thunder more motivated for a victory than they have been all season. They are out to prove that they can beat the defending Western Conference champs after a tough recent history against them. They have lost the first two meetings this season and DO NOT want to drop a 3rd today.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting its first win against OKC this season considering how well it has played inside the Staples Center. It is 23-6 SU & 18-11 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

The Thunder are very beatable on the road as they are 16-12 away from home this season. In fact, they have now lost three straight road games to Utah, Houston and Denver heading into this one. They have lost four of their last seven games overall with all three of their wins coming at home over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans.

Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponents this season. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These last three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the home team today. Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2

The Missouri State Bears will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home to face the Bradley Braves Saturday night. They are coming off an ugly 50-86 road loss at Illinois State last time out, and this will be their final regular season game tonight.

That means it will be Senior Day for the Bears. They certainly want to send out senior Anthony Downing a winner in his final home game ever. Downing is the team's best player as he leads them in points (13.7) and assists (2.7). He is the heart and soul of this team, and that's why I look for his teammates to go the extra mile to get him one final home win.

Missouri State also wants revenge from a 66-69 road loss at Bradley on January 19th as a 9-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting payback at home this time around considering the Braves are just 4-10 in all road games this year. They have some absolutely embarrassing road losses to UNI (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79). The Bears have won 12 of their last 15 home meetings with the Braves.

Bradley is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Bears. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/76ers UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. The Warriors are a tired team, and they have been showing signs of wearing down here of late.

This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for the Warriors. They lost 86-94 at Boston last night for 180 combined points. This is a jump shooting team, and the shots simply aren't going to fall considering how tired their legs will be tonight. I look for them to try and win this game because of their defense.

Golden State has an excellent chance of shutting down Philadelphia considering how poorly the 76ers have played offensively of late. The 76ers have scored 93 or fewer points in 12 straight games. However, they have only allowed 100-plus in two of those 12 contests. Philly is averaging a woeful 86.1 points/game in its last 12 games.

While those are all great reasons for a low-scoring game tonight, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings between these teams. Golden State and Philadelphia have combine for 188 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings over the past two seasons. They have combined for 185, 188 and 186 points, averaging just 186.3 points/game in the process. As you can see, that's roughly 10 points fewer than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Philadelphia is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -4

The Evansville Purple Aces should be a much bigger home favorite over the Indiana State Sycamores Saturday. This is Senior Day for Evansville as it will be their last home game of the season. It obviously wants to win this one for its seniors.

Evansville has saved its best basketball for the end of the season. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall with its only loss coming 68-71 as a 5-point home underdog to Creighton. It has reeled off three straight impressive victories since with a 79-62 home win over Illinois State as a 1-point dog, a 70-58 triumph at Wright State as a 1.5-point dog, and a 59-56 victory at Wichita State as an 11.5-point dog.

While the Purple Aces are rolling right now, the Sycamores have clearly packed it in. Indiana State has gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has lost four of its last five games overall with its only win coming 65-64 at home against Iona as a 5-point favorite. It has losses ugly losses to Missouri State (65-67), Bradley (68-80) and Drake (56-67) during this stretch. It doesn't even want to be here Saturday.

Evansville is 13-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points/game. Indiana State is just 4-8 in true road games this year. The Purple Aces want revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Indiana State on January 19th in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting it at home this time around.

Indiana State is 1-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Evansville is 6-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the homer team. Bet Evansville Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. This is a must-win game for them at home against Kentucky Saturday afternoon. The Razorbacks won't be lacking any motivation when they welcome the Wildcats to Bud Walton Arena today.

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back road losses to Florida and LSU heading into this contest. Those are two of the best teams in the SEC, and those road losses should come as no surprise considering how poorly it has played on the road. However, its home-court advantage has been huge this season.

The Razorbacks are a sensational 16-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Their home wins include Vanderbilt (56-33), Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71). The Wildcats are just 4-5 in true road games this year.

Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak. All three of those victories came at home over Vanderbilt (74-70), Missouri (OT) and Mississippi State. They were favored in all three contests as none of those wins were impressive. The Wildcats have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion to Florida (52-69) and Tennessee (58-88). They'll miss the presence of Nerlens Noel (out for season) on the road today.

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Butler/VCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Butler +7

Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points they are certainly worth a look. That's especially the case here Saturday as they are getting 7 points against Virginia Commonwealth. This is a Butler team that continues to be underrated year in and year out, and that has certainly been the case again this season.

That's evident by the fact that Butler is 22-6 on the season and a very profitable 16-10 ATS. That includes a 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS mark in road games this year. The Bulldogs have impressive outright wins over Marquette (72-71) as a 4-point dog, North Carolina (82-71) as an 8.5-point dog, Indiana (88-86) as an 11-point dog, St. Josephs (72-66) as a 2.5-point dog and Gonzaga (64-63) as a 2-point dog. They are 7-2 ATS as a dog this season.

VCU is one of the more overrated teams in the country. It also holds a 22-6 record like Butler, but it is just 8-13 ATS in all lined games this year. This is a quality Rams team but not one that should be favored by 7 points in what is a very evenly matched game. They have really been overvalued of late, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Butler is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. VCU is 0-6 ATS in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 0-8 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221

The books have inflated this number between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets tonight. This will be a nationally televised game on ESPN, which will bring out top-notch effort defensively from both teams. Plus, it will already be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors the defenses.

When you look at recent meetings between Oklahoma City and Denver it's easy to see that this number has been set too high tonight. That's especially the case when you don't count overtime, which is something you can never bank on when handicapping a game.

The Nuggets and Thunder have combined for 220 points or less in 18 straight meetings. That's only counting the first four quarters, and I'll take my chances that this contest doesn't go into OT tonight. This trend makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14.5

After losing two of their last three games in overtime, the San Antonio Spurs come into this game Friday with the Sacramento Kings highly motivated for a victory. That includes a 101-105 home loss to the Phoenix Suns last time out, and you can be sure that head coach Greg Popovich has made it clear to his players that it's was unacceptable.

Off a blowout road win at Orlando, the Kings are feeling good about themselves coming in. They'll quickly be put in their place by a Spurs team that will simply want this one more. I look for this spread to be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter tonight folks.

Sacramento is 6-26 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 10.1 points/game away from home this year. That's not good news for the Kings considering San Antonio is 22-3 at home this season. The Spurs are outscoring their opponents by an eye-opening 12.8 points/game at home this year.

The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Spurs are 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the Spurs Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Grizzlies simply have the Miami Heat's number in recent meetings. That's because this is a terrible match-up for Miami as it does not have the post presence to go up against a team like Memphis, which runs its offense through the underrated duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. I look for both of these guys to have monster games tonight for the Grizzlies.

Memphis has won its two most recent meetings with Miami in blowout fashion. It won 104-86 at home on November 11th in their first meeting this season, and 97-82 on the road on April 6th in their final meeting of 2012. In fact, the Grizzlies have now won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Heat come into this game way overvalued due to their current 12-game winning streak. They have shown signs of being overvalued in their past two games with a come-from-behind 109-105 home victory over Cleveland as a 12-point favorite, and a 141-129 (2 OT) home win over Sacramento as a 15-point favorite.

Memphis has shown that it really does not miss Rudy Gay one bit. It has won eight straight games heading into this contest and it will continue playing with a chip on its shoulder against the defending champs tonight. I look for this one to go right down to the wire, and for the Grizzlies to likely pull off the upset.

The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Memphis is 11-1 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1

The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. At 19-8, they are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament and they know that a win at home over Duke Thursday night would all but cement their place in the Big Dance. Look for this team to be more motivated for this game tonight than any other contest all season.

Virginia simply does not lose at home. It is 16-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points/game. Its home wins include Tennessee (46-38), North Carolina (61-52), Florida State (56-36), Boston College (65-51), NC State (58-55), Clemson (78-41), Virginia Tech (73-55) and Georgia Tech (82-54). As you can see, all but one of their ACC home wins have come via blowout.

Duke is only 4-3 in true road games this season with losses at NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90) and Maryland (81-83). This will be the first meeting between these teams this season, but the Cavaliers played the Blue Devils very tough on the road in their lone meeting last year. Virginia lost at Duke 58-61 as a 10.5-point underdog. It's revenge time at home this time around ladies and gents.

Virginia is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Thursday.

15* Missouri/South Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Carolina +9.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are showing excellent value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Missouri Tigers tonight. Despite being just 13-14 on the season, Frank Martin's club has shown that it is not going to pack it in.

South Carolina's last three games have resulted in a 58-68 loss at Alabama as a 12-point underdog, a 63-62 home upset of Ole Miss as a 6-point dog, and a 54-62 (OT) loss at Georgia as a 7-point dog. All three showing were very impressive and improved that the Gamecocks aren't going to pack it in.

The Gamecocks already showed that they could play with Missouri in their first meeting, falling 65-71 as a 13.5-point road underdog. I like their chances of possibly pulling off the upset at home this time around considering that Missouri is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only win coming at SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State.

The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games overall. The Tigers are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Missouri has no business being this heavily favored tonight with how poorly it has played on the road all season. Roll with South Carolina Thursday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -7

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory as they host the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma City and Cleveland, and I look for them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Consider that the Bulls have only lost three games in a row once all season.

I really like Chicago's chances of getting a blowout win tonight considering it will be hosting struggling Philadelphia. The 76ers have lost six straight coming in, including an embarrassing 84-98 home loss to Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite last time out. This team just cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus as they have completely fallen off.

Tom Thibodeau is one of the best head coaches in the business. He knows what buttons to push to get his players to respond following a poor performance or a string of them. Thibodeau is 44-24 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 29-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. He is also 22-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

Philadelphia is just 6-18 on the road this season. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. They are coming back to win by 10.8 points/game in this spot. The Bulls are 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico -5

The New Mexico Lobos will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season tonight. The No. 14 Lobos lost 34-55 at San Diego State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season. They have won six of seven since with their only loss coming at UNLV to improve to 23-4 on the year.

I really like New Mexico's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home this season. It is 13-1 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 11.9 points/game. "The Pit" is one of the most underrated basketball venues in the country.

San Diego State is just 1-4 in its last five true road games with losses to Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV. None of those four teams are as good as this New Mexico bunch. The Lobos are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Mountain West opponents.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These two trends combine for an 11-0 system backing the Lobos. Bet New Mexico Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. They have lost two straight coming in with a 94-107 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers, and a 107-110 (OT) home defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics. They will not lose three in a row tonight, especially considering this game is at home.

Utah is a sensational 21-7 SU & 17-11 ATS in all home games this season. It will also be out for revenge on the Hawks considering it has lost three straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. It lost the first meeting this season in Atlanta on January 11th by a final of 95-103.

The Hawks come in overvalued due to their 3-game winning streak coming in. In fact, they have won five of their last six overall while going 5-1 ATS in the process. A closer look at their schedule shows that they have been beating up on weaker teams. Their five wins have come against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Detroit. All five of those teams have losing records on the season.

The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in its previous game. The favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this series. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -8.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are finally undervalued as only an 8.5-point home favorite over the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. They had been overvalued for the past month after their tremendous start this season. Now is the time to jump back on their bandwagon as they are 20-7 on the season and fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.

Texas A&M (16-11) had its hopes of making the Big Dance crushed with an 85-93 home loss to Tennessee on Saturday. It now has little to play for the rest of the way, and off such a tough overtime defeat, I look for it to suffer a hangover tonight.

Ole Miss is 14-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.6 points/game. Rarely will you get the Rebels as a single-digit home favorite with how dominant they have been all season at home. Texas A&M is just 6-7 in all road games this year.

This is also a revenge spot for the Rebels after falling 67-69 at Texas A&M on February 13th just two weeks ago. That adds even more fuel to the fire for Ole Miss tonight. The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 188.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. I look for both teams to be held to fewer than 95 points in a low-scoring affair tonight. When you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between Dallas and Memphis. They have combined for 187 or fewer points in all five meetings with finals of 187, 174, 183, 180 and 181 points. They have combined to average 181.0 points/game in those five contests.

Memphis has become even more of a low-scoring, defensive team since trading away Rudy Gay and essentially getting back Tayshaun Prince in return. The UNDER is 3-0 in Grizzlies last three games overall with wins over Brooklyn (76-72), Orlando (88-82) and Toronto (88-82). As you can see, they have not combined with any of their last three opponents for more than 170 points.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Grizzlies last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Arkansas Razorbacks. LSU (16-9) still has an shot at making the NCAA Tournament thanks to playing its best basketball of the season here over the past few weeks.

LSU has gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came on the road at Kentucky (70-75) as a 15.5-point underdog, at Alabama (57-60) as an 8.5-point dog, and at Tennessee (72-82) as a 7-point dog. It has gone a perfect 5-0 at home during this stretch with wins over the likes of Texas A&M< Missouri and Alabama.

With those five straight home wins, LSU has improved to a solid 13-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. Arkansas is one of the worst road teams in the country. It is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming over SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State. It is getting outscored by 11.7 points/game in true road games this season.

The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between LSU and Arkansas since 2010. In fact, the home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Tigers. Roll with LSU Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -3

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six of their last eight games overall to get within striking distance of Milwaukee for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Four of those six wins came against playoff contenders in the Pacers, Nuggets and Knicks (twice), so it's not like they've been beating up on cupcakes.

Cleveland is in one of the toughest spots the NBA has to offer tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. Off a big upset win at Chicago last night, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cavaliers. Plus, they are expected to be without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) as he is listed as doubtful with a knee injury.

The road team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +13

The Penn State Nittany Lions are highly motivated for a win Wednesday when they host the Michigan Wolverines. They enter this contest winless (0-14) in Big Ten play, which has them way undervalued right now. That's why they are catching too many points tonight as they fight for that elusive first conference victory.

Head coach Patrick Chambers has done an amazing job of getting his players to continue to fight despite being winless in conference play. In fact, Penn State is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point dog, a 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog, and a 59-64 loss at Illinois as a 14.5-point dog.

Now, playing Michigan just 10 days after their first meeting, I look for Penn State to once again give the Wolverines a run for their money at home this time around. The Wolverines are in a big letdown spot here with Michigan State on deck. They will have a hard time getting motivated to play this Nittany Lions' bunch considering they just beat them by 8 at home 10 days ago.

Chambers is a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog in all games he has coached. His teams are actually winning in this spot 70.5 to 57.6 on average. John Beilein is 1-8 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game as the coach of Michigan. Take Penn State Wednesday.