15* Texas/Oklahoma ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4 

The Oklahoma Sooners picked up a huge 71-62 road win at TCU last time out to halt a five-game skid and put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.  But there’s still work to be done for the Sooners. 

Now, it’s time for Oklahoma to get revenge on hated rival Texas after a 72-75 road loss to the Longhorns in their first meeting this season.  And they should be able to get their revenge against a Longhorns team that is just 2-5 SU in true road games. 

The biggest reason I’m on Oklahoma today though is because Texas is going to be without its best player in Kerwin Roach due to suspension.  Roach averages 15.0 points per game and for a team that already struggles on offense, they cannot afford to be without him. 

Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Sooners are 10-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Sooners today.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

15* Jazz/Thunder ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226.5 

NBA Unders went 5-1 last night in the first six games back from the break.  Teams are usually sluggish in that first game back from the break, and I think that under trend likely continues tonight.  And I’ll bet my favorite under on the board here in the Jazz/Thunder game on ESPN Friday. 

The recent series history suggest that this number is inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Thunder have combined for 226 or fewer points in 38 of their last 39 meetings.  That makes for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 226.5.  They have combined for 217 or fewer points in 34 of their last 36 meetings as well. 

Oklahoma City is 9-1 UNDER after a game where it attempted 100 or more shots this season.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Jazz last 31 vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last six games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Thunder last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Davidson/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Davidson PK 

The Davidson Wildcats suffered a tough 73-74 home loss to Dayton on Tuesday.  They are now in 2nd place in the Atlantic 10, one game back of VCU for first place.  They own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams having beaten them in their one and only meeting this season.  And they certainly want to win the conference, so they’ll be highly motivated the rest of the way to do so. 

The same cannot be said for Rhode Island, which appears to have quiet.  The Rams are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The last four consecutive losses have been really concerning.  They lost by 15 at Davidson, by 29 at home to Dayton, were upset at home by Fordham as 11-point favorites, and lost by 34 at VCU.  If that’s not a sign of a team that has quit I don’t know what is. 

Davidson is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  Davidson is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Rhode Island is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring less than 50 points in its previous game.  Roll with Davidson Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -2 

The Los Angeles Clippers come out of the All-Star Break sitting in 8th place in the Western Conference.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they try and fend of the Kings and Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

The Clippers haven’t really missed Tobias Harris too much.  They went into Boston and won 123-112 as 11.5-point underdogs, lost at Minnesota, and then crushed Phoenix 134-107 at home.  Now they return from their break and hit the road to take on the hapless Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 23-36 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-20 SU in their last 20 games overall, and basically they are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.  Not to mention, the Grizzlies are without both Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas, and they could be without Jaren Jackson Jr. who is questionable. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS as road favorites over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Memphis is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3 

Lebron James is now in full-on playoff mode.  The Lakers sit at 28-29 and three games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference.  Expect the best from James and company moving forward as they try and make a playoff run. 

After all, James missed 17 games with a groin injury prior to the break.  So he’s actually fresher for the stretch run than he’s used to.  And he should be able to raise the level of play of his teammates, just as he has done everywhere he has gone.  This is a statement game at home against the Houston Rockets Thursday night. 

The Lakers also will be extra motivated to not get swept by the Rockets this season.  They are 0-3 against Houston in their three meetings this year, but they nearly pulled the upset in a 134-138 (OT) loss at Houston in their last meeting, and that was without James.  At home this time around, and with a healthy James back, I think this one will play out in the Lakers’ favor tonight. 

Los Angeles is 23-9 ATS after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Lakers Thursday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific +8.5 

I love the spot for the Pacific Tigers tonight for several reasons.  The first being that they are coming off three straight road losses, so they are undervalued, and now they’ll be back home for the first time since February 2nd.  And those weren’t bad road losses as they covered at St. Mary’s and BYU, and only lost by 5 at Santa Clara. 

Now the Tigers get their shot at revenge against St. Mary’s, which was fortunate to beat them 78-66 at home as 14-point favorites.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was a single-digit game throughout until the last few minutes. 

Few teams have played St. Mary’s as tough as Pacific in the West Coast Conference.  Indeed, Pacific is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Mary’s.  The last five meetings at Pacific have all been decided by 8 points or fewer.  And this is the worst St. Mary’s team they’ve had in years, so the Tigers should be able to stay within 8.5, if not pull off the upset. 

St. Mary’s is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  Pacific is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two years.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Add in that the Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and we have a combined 33-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Take Pacific Thursday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

The USC Trojans are in desperate need of a win at home here tonight.  They took out their frustration with a 23-point win at California last time out to follow up their three consecutive losses.  And now they want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season at Oregon 60-81 back on January 13th. 

The Trojans should have their revenge at home this time around.  They are 11-4 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  Oregon is just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in true road games this season.  That includes their 15-point loss at Oregon State last time out. 

The Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Ducks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with USC Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the most underrated teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star Break.  They sit at 30-29 overall and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been basically all season getting several key guys back from injury.  The only key player they are missing now is Spencer Dinwiddie. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 10-15 SU & 10-15 ATS on the road giving up 113.3 points per game.  And Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight for the Blazers as he recovers from an ankle injury.  Brooklyn is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Brooklyn tonight.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

20* Michigan/Minnesota ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +5.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are on the ‘last four byes’ line by Joe Lunardi.  They are barely in the NCAA Tournament.  So a win here over Michigan would certainly put them in with room to spare, beating the 7th-ranked team in the country. 

Minnesota nearly pulled the upset in a 57-59 loss as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  It’s safe to say they want revenge, and they should be able to get it at home this time around.  The Gophers are 13-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Wisconsin and Maryland. 

The Wolverines have been vulnerable on the road in Big Ten play here of late.  Indeed, they are just 2-3 SU in their last five road games, losing at Wisconsin by 10, at Iowa by 15 and at Penn State by 6.  Their only two road wins came against Indiana and Rutgers during this stretch, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Minnesota just blasted Indiana by 21 at home over the weekend. 

The Gophers have had a knack for playing the Wolverines tough.  In fact, each of the last 14 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including nine by 5 points or fewer.  The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Minnesota Thursday. 

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -4 

Don’t look now but the Colorado Buffaloes are 16-9 and on the verge of getting onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They’ve done so by doing 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both UCLA and USC on the road, while also beating Oregon, ASU and Arizona at home. 

Now, the Buffaloes cannot afford a slip-up here at Washington State, and they know it.  Look for them to carry their momentum into another win and cover here against a Cougars team they already throttled 92-60 at home as 11.5-point favorites.  I think getting them as only 4-point road favorites in the rematch is cheap. 

Washington State is coming off a gut-wrenching 70-72 home loss to its biggest rival in Washington.  I think the Cougars suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat.  They are now 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games, also losing by 9 to USC, by 20 to UCLA and by 12 to Stanford. 

The Cougars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, while the Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Colorado Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5.5 

Marquette is 15-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by a single point to St. John’s.  That was clearly a lookahead spot with Villanova on deck.  The Golden Eagles went on to beat Villanova.  And I thought they’d have a letdown in their next game at DePaul, but they demolished the Blue Demons by 19 on the road as 3-point favorites. 

Now the Golden Eagles have a full week to get ready for Butler after last playing on February 12th.  Meanwhile, Butler last played on February 16th, only getting three days to get ready for Marquette.  And the Golden Eagles already beat the Bulldogs by 18 on the road a few weeks back. 

I think Butler will have the same problems in the rematch.  The Golden Eagles are winning by 15.8 points per game at home this season.  They score 79 points per game on the season.  Butler is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season.  They only score 66.6 points per game in true road games.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with a Marquette team whose four leading scorers all shoot nearly 40% from 3-point range or better.  Markus Howard averages nearly 26 points per game and is a matchup nightmare. 

Marquette is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  Butler is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 2-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  LaVall Jordan is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of Butler.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +16.5 

Rutgers is playing well enough to hang with Michigan State tonight.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  One of their losses came in overtime at Illinois, while the other was a last-second lost to Iowa on a banked 3-pointer.  They have gone on the road and upset both Penn State and Northwestern, while also upsetting Indiana and Nebraska at home.  This team just doesn’t get the respect they deserve. 

Now the Scarlet Knights on on the road seeking revenge from a 67-78 home loss to Michigan State in they first meeting this season way back on November 30th.  That was a 39-37 game at the half, and the Scarlet Knights showed they could hang with the Spartans.  It was also back when the Spartans had both Joshua Langford and Nick Ward healthy. 

Ward and Langford combined for 34 of Michigan State’s 78 points in that win over Rutgers.  But Langford (15.0 PPG) has been lost for the season since, and Ward (15.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) just recently suffered a fractured hand in their last game that is going to keep him out until late-March.  That’s a crushing blow because Ward has been unstoppable inside all season for the Spartans. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Rutgers) - after a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Steve Pikiell is 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a same-season loss in all games he has coached.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -1 

The Clemson Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a win here over a ranked opponent in Florida State to boost their cause.  They certainly won’t be lacking any motivation tonight. 

Not only is Clemson coming off back-to-back tough 1-point losses at Miami and Louisville, they also want revenge from a 68-77 loss at Florida State in their first meeting this season.  They should be able to get their revenge at home, where they are 11-2 this season and holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 39% shooting. 

Florida State has not been very good on the road this year.  They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in true road games, which includes ugly losses at Pitt and Boston College.  I think the Seminoles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It has mostly come against a weak schedule with their only road games during this stretch at Miami, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. 

Florida State is 0-6 ATS in road gams when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Florida State.  Bet Clemson Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +2.5 

Since conference season has arrived, the South Carolina Gamecocks have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC.  They are 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS in SEC play this season with upset wins over Florida, Vanderbilt and Georgia on the road, as well as Auburn and Mississippi State at home.  I think they pull another upset home win over Ole Miss tonight. 

The Ole Miss Rebels have also been one of the more underrated teams in the SEC, but they are the team that is actually getting respect from oddsmakers today as road favorites in this matchup.  That’s because they have won four straight coming in and I think they are getting too much credit now. 

South Carolina is 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Ole Miss.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings straight up.  South Carolina is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its six SEC home games this season with its only loss coming to Tennessee.  The Gamecocks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 SEC games overall.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -3.5 

This is a very short number for the Davidson Wildcats to be laying at home tonight.  That’s especially the case when you consider they are probably the best team in the Atlantic 10 and they are 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game. 

I also like the fact that Davidson has an extra day to prepare for Dayton.  They last played on Friday while Dayton last played on Saturday.  And the Flyers expended a lot of energy coming back from a 20-plus point deficit at home to VCU in the 2nd half to actually take the lead, only to lose on a last-second jumper 68-69.  I think they will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat as it will be tough for them to get back up off the mat. 

Dayton is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.  The Wildcats are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Dayton is 7-21 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. 

Davidson is 8-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  They are winning by a whopping 18.7 points per game in this spot.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% this season.  Davidson is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Davidson Tuesday. 

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +9.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 in their last six games overall that includes outright road wins at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs and at Ohio State as 8-point dogs.  They also upset both Michigan State and Nebraska at home, while beating Rutgers at home as well. 

Wisconsin is coming off four straight huge games against Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan and Michigan State.  Now they face an Illini team they already beat by 12 on the road.  I just can’t see them being all that motivated to face Illinois again tonight.   

Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini will obviously be motivated for revenge.  Not only for their loss to the Badgers earlier this season, but for their current 14-game losing streak against Wisconsin overall.  They are finally playing well enough to give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight. 

“We want more.  We’re not satisfied,” Illini freshman guard Ayo Dosunmu told reporters after Thursday’s road win at Ohio State. “Our main focus is Wisconsin and trying to get the fifth in a row.  We’re trying to make history.  We’re the only people who believe in us, so we just need to stay together.”  Bet Illinois Monday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -4.5 

I love the spot for the Creighton Bluejays today.  They are coming off three straight losses all of which came on the road to Villanova, Seton Hall and Xavier.  Now they are back home where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country over the last several seasons. 

One of those road losses was against today’s opponent in Seton Hall, so they don’t have to wait long for revenge.  They are going to want it here after losing at Seton Hall 58-63 in a nail biter. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Creighton has won its last two home meetings with Seton Hall by 17 and 14 points. 

Creighton is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games off three or more consecutive unders.  The Bluejays are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons, winning by 20.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Creighton Sunday. 

15* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +12.5 

I think we’re getting too many points with Ohio State today for a couple of different reasons.  The first is the fact that they were just upset at home by Illinois, but that’s a Fighting Illini team that has now won four straight and is better than its record would suggest. 

After all, Michigan State also recently lost to Illinois outright as 11-point favorites.  But the Spartans beat the Buckeyes by 9 on the road in the first meeting.  And that’s another reason we are getting too many points here in the rematch. 

That was a much closer game than that 9-point margin would suggest.  In fact, Ohio State actually led Michigan State by 7 at halftime.  The Spartans simply pulled away in the closing minutes as they made their free throws and Ohio State went cold from the floor.  Now, the Buckeyes want some revenge here Sunday. 

Ohio State is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 when revenging a home loss.  The Buckeyes are 33-18 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Ohio State) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a road win are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Ohio State Sunday. 

20* Wichita State/Cincinnati AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State +12 

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off a deflating loss at Houston that will likely cost them the AAC title.  I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat in their biggest game of the season.  They won’t be fully focused for Wichita State, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 12.5-point spread. 

Conversely, Wichita State comes in highly motivated for revenge.  The Shockers led the Bearcats nearly the entire way until the closing minutes in their first meeting this season.  But they had two technical fouls and a shooting foul in the closing minutes, and Cincinnati made six straight free throws with the clock stopped to put the game away. 

Since that defeat, the Shockers have been playing very well.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat both SMU and Tulsa at home, hammered Tulane by 15 at home, and crushed ECU by 16 on the road.  They are fully capable of hanging with Cincinnati today. 

Greg Marshall is 78-36 ATS off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Wichita State.  Both meetings last season were decided by a combined 5 points, and their first meeting this season was much closer than the 11-point margin in Cincinnati’s favor would suggest.  And because they won by 11 I think we are getting a few extra points here.  The Shockers are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 Sunday games, while the Bearcats are just 21-44 ATS in their last 65 Sunday games.  Bet Wichita State Sunday. 

20* Gonzaga/San Diego ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +16 

The San Diego Toreros are one of the best teams in the WCC this season.  They have the talent to give Gonzaga a run for their money, especially when you look at their recent history against the Bulldogs. 

San Diego only lost by 16 as 23-point dogs at Gonzaga on January 2nd.  Now the Toreros get their shot at revenge at home exactly two weeks later.  And they only lost by 5 at home to Gonzaga and by 10 on the road in their two meetings last year, so they have a great track record against this team.  Getting 16 points is simply too much tonight. 

San Diego is 11-2 at home this season, shooting 48% from the floor and giving up just 42.5% shooting.  The Toreros are very capable of getting hot from 3-point range to stay in this game.  They shoot 37.5% from distance and average 8 made 3-pointers per game at home this season. 

Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game over the last two seasons.  San Diego is 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last two years.  The Toreros are 6-0 ATS against top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Roll with San Diego Saturday. 

25* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -5 

The UCF Knights want revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 57-77 at Memphis on January 27th just a few weeks ago.  But now they get the Tigers at home this time around and should run away with this one. 

UCF is 12-2 at home this season with a one-point loss early in the year and then a loss to Houston, which has only lost one game all season.  And the Knights’ most important player in big man Tacko Fall got two fouls in the first three minutes in that Houston game and had to sit the entire first half. 

Memphis is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games this season.  Their only three wins in games played away from home this season have come against Canisius, Tulane and ECU.  Those are three of the worst teams in college basketball.  They have lost by 9 to LSU, by 20 to Oklahoma State, by 13 to Houston, by 9 to Temple, by 16 to Tulsa and by 6 to USF on the highway.  As you can see, each one of those losses came by 6 points or more. 

Memphis is 1-11 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  UCF is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  The Knights are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Knights are 9-1 ATS after two straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* AAC ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They’ve been poor for so long, but here they are at 17-7 SU & 17-7 ATS and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a fellow bubble team in Temple today would go a long way to helping their cause. 

It’s safe to say the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory today.  And they have already proven they can play with Temple.  The Bulls want revenge from an 80-82 (OT) road loss at Temple in their first meeting this season on January 12th. 

Now, the Bulls get the Owls at home this time around and should have their revenge.  South Florida is 13-2 at home this season.  One of their two losses came to one-loss Houston, which is certainly forgivable. 

Temple is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  South Florida is 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.  The Bulls are 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +6.5 

Oddsmakers just haven’t adjusted enough for the loss of Virginia Tech’s best player in Justin Robinson.  He is their floor general, currently their all-time assist leader and their second-leading scorer at 14.4 PPG. 

It’s no surprise the Hokies are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without Robinson.  They lost at home to Louisville by 8 as 5-point favorites, lost at Clemson by 8 as 3-point dogs, and only beat Georgia Tech by 8 as 12.5-point road dogs. 

Now the Hokies should be on upset alert as they hit the road to take on a feisty Pitt team that couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now.  The Panthers have gone 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is exactly the type of team I like to ‘buy low’ on. 

Plays on home teams (Pittsburgh) - after failing to cover the spread in 7 or more consecutive games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  Their offense has been woeful without Robinson running the show.  I think that continues today, and if they do manage to pull out a victory, it won’t be by 7 points or more.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -1.5 

I like everything about this spot for the Dayton Flyers today.  For starters, they want revenge from their 71-76 road loss at VCU in their first meeting this season.  Given their advantageous scheduling spot, they should get revenge. 

Indeed, the Flyers actually come into this game on six days’ rest having last played on Saturday in an impressive 77-48 road win at Rhode Island.  Now they’re rested and ready to go against a VCU team that just had to play on Wednesday, only getting two days off in between games.  And the Rams will also be playing their 5th game in 15 days here. 

Dayton is 11-2 at home this season and winning by 11.6 points per game.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Dayton basically just has to win to cover this 1.5-point spread. 

VCU is 7-17 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dayton is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games off two consecutive road games.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Bet Dayton Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +12.5 

To say the Penn State Nittany Lions have turned their season around would be a massive understatement.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Northwestern on the road as 3-point dogs, upset Michigan at home at 7-point dogs, and only lost by 4 at Ohio State as 7-point dogs. 

Now, the Nittany Lions will be seeking revenge from a tough 90-99 (OT) home loss to Purdue on January 31st just a few weeks ago.  They are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

I think Purdue is way overvalued right now after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I correctly faded them with my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland +2.5 in a 70-56 home win over Purdue last time out.  And I’ll gladly fade the Boilermakers laying too big a number here against Penn State, a team that will want this game more. 

Penn State is 9-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Take Penn State Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -3.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have lost four straight to fall to 16-9 on the season and 6-8 in Big Ten play.  They are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and cannot afford a home loss to Indiana if they want to get in.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory today. 

To be fair, three of those four losses were on the road while the other was a gut-wrenching home loss to Wisconsin.  Minnesota is still 12-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 9.1 points per game. 

Indiana doesn’t have a lot to play for but pride the rest of the way as they sit at 13-11 overall and 4-9 in the Big Ten.  The Hoosiers have really struggled of late, going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 12.0 points per game in this spot.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Take Minnesota Saturday. 

20* Buffalo/Toledo ESPNU No-Brainer on Toledo +3.5 

The Toledo Rockets want revenge from one of their only four losses this season.  They lost at Buffalo on January 8th.  But since then, the Rockets have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS with their only loss coming by two points on the road at Kent State. 

Toledo is now 20-4 on the season, which includes 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home while outscoring their opponents by 18.7 points per game.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere for the Rockets at home tonight.   

I like the fact that Toledo has five days’ rest coming in having last played on February 9th, while Buffalo is only on two days’ rest having last played in February 12th.  It will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Buffalo, and just the 2nd game in 10 days for Toledo.  That’s a huge advantage. 

Buffalo has been vulnerable here of late, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with outright road losses to Northern Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and Bowling Green as 8-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites at Akron in a 6-point win. 

Toledo is 7-0 ATS after a game where they forced 8 or fewer turnovers this season.  Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Toledo Friday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Loyola-Marymount +20.5 

Gonzaga has been one of the best covering teams in college basketball this season.  They have made the betting public a lot of money by going 23-2 SU & 18-7 ATS this season.  And oddsmakers keep getting burned by this team.  At some point, they have to say enough is enough. 

I think that’s the case here with this game against Loyola-Marymount (17-8) Thursday.  Oddsmakers have made Gonzaga a whopping 20.5-point road favorite in this matchup.  It’s simply too much.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the WCC, and they shouldn’t be catching 20.5 points at home. 

That’s especially the case when you consider Loyola-Marymount only lost by 18 as 23.5-point dogs at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  If they can stay within 18 on the road, they should be able to stay within 20.5 at home.  They’ve lost by 19 or less in three of their last four meetings with the Zags, and this is the best team the Lions have had in years. 

I also think this is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge home win over their biggest rivals in the St. Mary’s Gaels.  If they were ever going to relax, it would be tonight off that win and knowing in the back of their minds they’ve already beaten the Lions by 18 once already this season.  They probably feel like they just have to show up to win, but the Lions will be laying it all on the line for sure. 

Loyola-Marymount is 10-2 SU at home this season with its two losses coming by 2 and 11 points.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  They are winning outright by 16.6 points per game in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games off three consecutive home games.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just ready for the All-Star Break to get here.  They have had to deal with the Anthony Davis trade drama, and it has clearly taken its toll on them.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

In their last two games, the Pelicans lost by 9 at Memphis against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  Then they lost at home to Orlando by 30 in a game they trailed 39-17 after the first quarter.  They clearly weren’t into that game, and they won’t be into this game, either. 

The Thunder are playing as well as anyone in the NBA heading into the All-Star Break and want to carry that momentum in with one final win.  The Thunder are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, beating the likes of Portland (twice) and Milwaukee at home, as well as Houston and Philadelphia on the road.  Plus, the Thunder are expected to get Dennis Schroeder back from a one-game absence due to injury. 

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 trips to New Orleans.  The Thunder are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Take the Thunder Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks -7 

The New York Knicks have now lost a franchise-record 18 straight games after their 111-126 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The Knicks are just ready for the All-Star Break to put this part of the season behind them. 

Plus, the Knicks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team that won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  That’s bad news as they’ll be up against a Hawks team that will run them to death as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace. 

That Atlanta team is not tanking.  They have gone 3-3 SU in their last six games with upset road wins over Phoenix and Washington, as well as an upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a young team that keeps playing together, and they are now as healthy as they have been all season.  They want to go into the break with a win here tonight. 

The Knicks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  That game has blowout written all over it given the Knicks are playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday. 

25* NBA Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -3 

The Orlando Magic have clearly been on a mission to get back in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference heading into the All-Star Break.  They’ve gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last five wins coming by double-digits.  I think this team is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and they don’t want to lose their final game prior to the break to ruin all this good work they’ve put in. 

Now the Magic get to host a struggling Charlotte Hornets team that has gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with its only victory coming against the lowly Hawks.  It’s a Hornets team that Magic are trailing by 2 games in the Eastern Conference standings, so I would certainly say Orlando needs this win more and will be more motivated. 

Adding to Orlando’s motivation is the fact that is has now lost 13 straight meetings to Charlotte.  You can bet these Magic players will be reminded of that streak heading into this game.  They want to do something about it, and they are finally playing well enough to end this skid now.  It’s also worth noting that the Hornets could be distracted with the All-Star Game coming to Charlotte this year.  I’m sure players are dealing with a lot of off-court distractions right now because of it. 

Charlotte is just 8-20 SU on the road this season and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  They are losing by 9.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days’ rest.  The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn -8 

The Auburn Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They are coming off a tough 5-point loss at LSU, which obviously isn’t a bad loss considering LSU is one of the best teams in the country.  But they do want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 67-82 loss at Ole Miss in their first meeting. 

Auburn has been a different animal at home this season.  They are 12-1 SU at home this season while outscoring the opposition by a whopping 23.7 points per game.  Expect another blowout home victory in their favor tonight given their high intensity level with revenge in mind. 

Ole Miss has come back down to earth here of late.  The Rebels are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 14-point home loss to LSU, a 21-point road loss to Alabama and a 14-point home loss to Iowa State.  The Rebels are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning % above .600. 

The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS int heir last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Bet Auburn Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

I just don’t think the Bulls are tanking contrary to popular believe.  They have recent road wins over Miami by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they battled the Bucks last time out, only trailing by 3 with roughly three minutes to go but somehow lost by 13.  I had the Bulls +12 in that game in one of the worst beats I’ve suffered all season. 

But I’m willing to get back on the Bulls today in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  I really like the talent on this team with Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Robin Lopez and Otto Porter Jr., who was a nice get at the trade deadline for the Wizards.  There are certainly a lot worse starting 5’s in the NBA. 

Now they face a Memphis Grizzlies team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a one-point home loss to the Spurs last night.  It’s definitely a hangover spot for them off that tough defeat.  The Grizzlies were sellers at the deadline parting ways with two of their best players in Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple.  They would have traded Mike Conley too, but his absurd contract detracted suitors.  I just don’t trust them much at all the rest of the season. 

Memphis is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Memphis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a loss to a division opponent.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Bradley +2.5 

Bradley is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now coming into this game against Loyola-Chicago.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory against the Ramblers, who won the MVC last year and made the Final Four, but are a far cry from that team. 

Bradley is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Its five wins have come by an average of 13.0 points per game during this stretch, including a 96-67 home win over Indiana State on Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago played at Valpo on Sunday, meaning the Braves get an extra day to rest and prepare for the Ramblers in this one. 

Bradley upset Loyola-Chicago 69-67 as nearly identical 2-point home dogs last year.  And that was a better Ramblers team than the 2018-19 version.  And the Braves are a better version this season thanks to returning four starters.  And Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season in conference play, losing by 19 at Evansville, by 35 at Missouri State and by 8 at Illinois State.  They needed a huge comeback in the final minutes to beat Valpo by 5 on Sunday. 

Bradley is 9-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Braves are winning by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  Bradley is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 13-3-2 ATS int heir last 18 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -1 

Illinois State just lost on a half-court buzzer beater at Missouri State on Sunday.  They’ve only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa, and I think they are still ‘hungover’ from that crushing defeat.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight. 

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a tough 69-70 loss at Illinois State as 5.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And the Panthers should get their revenge thanks in part because they actually have more time to rest and prepare for this game after last playing on Saturday. 

The Panthers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Illinois State is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this seres as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings. 

Illinois State is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Northern Iowa is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Redbirds.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Detroit Pistons have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their four wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They now sit at 26-29 on the season and in 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a game ahead of the Miami Heat. 

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight wanting to carry their momentum into the All-Star Break as this is their final game prior to the break.  The Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days and will be laying it all on the line to get a win in Boston.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which has been a key to their great play of late. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a huge win in Philadelphia last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot as well after pulling the upset.  And the Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving tonight, plus key backup PG Terry Rozier is doubtful. 

Detroit won 113-104 at home as 2-point dogs and only lost 105-108 as 8.5-point road dogs in its last two meetings with Boston this season.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Boston.  The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +5.5 

This is a huge hangover spot for Northwestern.  They blew a double-digit lead against No. 20 Iowa in the final three minutes and lost on a 3-pointer by the Hawkeyes with 0.6 seconds left.  There’s no way they are motivated at all to come back home and face Rutgers now. 

It’s a Rutgers team they already beat by 8 on the road in their first meeting this season.  But the Sacrlet Knights were playing without their best player in that game.  They are without F Eugene Omoruyi, their leading scorer (14.2 PPG) and rebounding (7.4 RPG).  The Scarlet Knights want to be here more as they want revenge on the Wildcats. 

Rutgers has been playing much better since that loss and since getting Omoruyi back from injury.  They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games with their only two non-covers coming by 2.5 points each against Ohio State and Michigan State.  I like the fact that Rutgers has an extra day to prepare after playing on Saturday, while Northwestern played Iowa Sunday night. 

The Wildcats lost at home to Penn State in their last home game, handing the Nittany Lions their first conference win of the season.  Northwestern is 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games.  Rutgers is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple -4 

This is a very short number for the Temple Owls to be laying at home.  They are 9-2 at home this season and 17-7 overall.  The Owls are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament without having to win the conference tournament to get in.  They need a big finish to the regular season to accomplish that feat, and they certainly cannot afford a loss to SMU here. 

I think the Owls are laying a shorter number than they should be because they are coming off an ugly road loss at Tulsa by 18 points.  Well, Tulsa has been a great bet at home for the last several season.  And that loss will have the Owls highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.  Temple also has an extra day of rest after last playing on Saturday while SMU last played on Sunday. 

SMU has dropped four straight games coming in, including back-to-back upset home losses to USF and UCF.  The Mustangs have lost four straight true road games by an average of 10.3 points per game as well.  They are just 12-11 on the season now in what has clearly been a rebuilding year.  Their only shot to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the conference tournament.  I just don’t like where this team is at mentally right now. 

SMU is 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 games against a team with a winning record.  Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Mustangs are 0-6 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season. Bet Temple Wednesday.

20* Duke/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +8.5 

Duke is coming off a huge 81-71 win at Virginia in which they made everything.  They shot 57.8% from the floor and 13-for-21 (61.9%) from 3-point range, which was clearly an aberration for a team that shoots just 32% from deep on the season.  And now I think the Blue Devils are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers from that win over Virginia. 

Louisville has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  The Cardinals are 17-7 on the year, including 12-2 at home.  They are coming off a tough overtime road loss at Florida State, and I fully expect them to be highly motivated for a victory tonight with No. 2 Duke coming to town.  It will be a raucous atmosphere inside the KFC Yum Center for this one tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Louisville won 78-69 as 3.5-point favorites and 71-64 as 7-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Duke.  And the Cardinals are now catching a whopping 8.5 points tonight.  It’s too much. 

Duke is 2-9 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss.  Take Louisville Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. John’s -4 

It’s safe to say the St. John’s Red Storm will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They suffered a huge letdown off their upset win at Marquette with a 14-point home loss to Providence on Saturday.  That loss should have them re-focused, especially considering they want revenge from their 81-90 road loss at Butler on January 19th. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  St. John’s upset Butler 75-68 as 4.5-point dogs and 76-73 as 8-point dogs in its last two home meetings.  But this Butler team isn’t nearly as good as those versions, and this St. John’s team is the best it has been in years. 

St. John’s is 9-3 SU at home this season, while Butler is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The Bulldogs are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet St. John’s Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are coming off four straight losses straight up and seven straight ATS losses.  But they’ve faced a brutal road schedule with four straight losses at Sacramento, Golden State, Portland and Utah.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Now, the Spurs face a team they can handle in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are just 23-34 this season.  But the Grizzlies are getting some respect from oddsmakers as they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But their three wins came against the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Knicks, while they lost by 22 at Oklahoma City. 

The Spurs also have had some time to rest and recover as they come in on two days’ rest.  The Grizzlies clearly signaled they were tanking when they traded away Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple, and they still have a ton of injuries to deal with right now with Kyle Anderson and Omri Casspi out.  They just don’t have the horses now to compete with a team the caliber of San Antonio. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 points or more in their last there games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS since 1996. 

The Spurs lost 86-96 at Memphis in their last meeting.  Well, that sets the Spurs up for a great spot tonight.  San Antonio is 16-1 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.  Take the Spurs Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on DePaul +3.5 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight off their huge 66-65 home win over Villanova on Saturday.  Now they hit the road a few days later and face a DePaul team they already beat by 10 at home.  They won’t be motivated at all for this game tonight. 

Conversely, DePaul wants revenge from that 69-79 road loss at Marquette on January 23rd.  And they way DePaul is playing right now, they should be able to pull the upset.  They beat Providence by 12 at home and Xavier by 12 on the road in their last two games to improve to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Blue Demons are also rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days here, while Marquette will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.  DePaul upset Marquette 70-62 at home as basically identical 3-point underdogs last year.   

Marquette has played six true road games this season and have been outscored by a total of 15 points in those six games.  The Blue Demons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with DePaul Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +2.5 

The Maryland Terrapins have a big edge in rest and preparation tonight.  They have had five days’ rest since last playing on Wednesday, while the Purdue Boilermakers only have two days’ rest after playing on Saturday. 

The Terrapins also have the edge in motivation tonight.  They will want to avenge their 60-62 road loss to Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Terrapins are 12-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Virginia & Seton Hall. They should be able to get their revenge tonight given the favorable spot for them.

Purdue is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  Two of those wins came in overtime at Penn State and at Wisconsin.  They lost by 19 at Michigan and lost by 18 at Michigan State, while also losing at Florida State and Texas. 

I certainly think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Purdue, which has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  That’s the only reason the Boilermakers are favored here, but they shouldn’t be.  The Terrapins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Boilermakers.  Bet Maryland Tuesday.

20* Kansas/TCU ESPN No-Brainer on TCU -2.5 

This is finally the year where teams in the Big 12 are taking their turns beating a rare vulnerable Kansas team.  Now it is TCU’s turn tonight.  The Horned Frogs should be bigger home favorites over the Jayhawks, but the name ‘Kansas’ still gets respect from the betting public that it shouldn’t this season. 

Kansas is just 1-6 SU & 0-6-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Jayhawks lost at Arizona State, at Iowa State, at WVU, at Kentucky, at Texas and at Kansas State.  It was bad enough that they lost Udoka Azubuike (13.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to a season-ending injury at the start of Big 12 play, but now star G Legerald Vick (14.1 PPG, 46% 3-pointers) has taken a leave of absence, and Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG) remains out. 

TCU is feeling good after picking up one of the most impressive wins in the Big 12 this season with its 92-83 win at Iowa State as 9.5-point dogs over the weekend.  The Horned Frogs now want revenge from a 68-77 loss at Kansas on January 9th.  And they should get it at home this time around, where they are 11-1 SU this season. 

TCU is 9-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 13.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  TCU is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet TCU Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +12 

Because the Milwaukee Bucks are 41-14 SU & 32-21-2 ATS this season and have the best record in the Eastern Conference, they are starting to warrant a lot of respect from the betting public.  When that happens, these teams become overvalued, and I think that’s the case for the Bucks right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bucks, who are now being asked to go on the road and lay a whopping 12 points to the Chicago Bulls.  This is a Bulls team that is not obviously tanking like some of these other teams with bad records.  In fact, they probably have the most talent of any of the perceived tanking teams. 

In their last five games alone, the Bulls have gone o the road and pulled off some impressive blowout upset victories.  They went into Miami and won by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and they won at Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they just added more talent before the trade deadline by snagging Otto Porter Jr. from the Washington Wizards.  I now like this lineup of Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez quite a bit. 

Chicago only lost 113-116 as 15-point road dogs in its last meeting with the Bucks in Milwaukee.  The Bucks are 26-50 ATS in their last 76 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - who score more than 102 PPG against an opponent that gives up more than 102 PPG, after scoring 90 points or less are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +5.5 

I believe the Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers, who are missing Victor Oladipo and have managed to play well without him of late, but it won’t continue for much longer. 

The Charlotte Hornets are battling to get into the playoffs at 28-29 this season.  They have played some of their best basketball of the season of late, going 8-5 SU & 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And they come in fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  Charlotte has two days off after this, so it will be 100% zoned in and focused on beating Indiana tonight. 

Indiana is a tired team right now as it will be playing its 8th game in 13 days.  Plus, the Pacers could easily be looking ahead to their huge showdown with Milwaukee at home on Wednesday.  And both Myles Turner and Doug McDermott are questionable to play tonight for the Pacers. 

The Pacers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars have the nation’s longest home winning streak at 31 games.  For a team with this kind of streak going, this is a pretty short number for the Cougars to be laying at home today against Cincinnati.  They’ll be highly motivated with the AAC regular season title basically on the line here as both teams enter 9-1 in conference play. 

But I think there’s a big difference between these teams.  Houston is 9-1 in conference play and outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game, while Cincinnati is only outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game during its 9-1 start to the conference season. 

Cincinnati has simply been fortunate in close games this season, especially of late.  The Bearcats’ last three wins have all come by 5 points or less, and they’ve now won six straight games that were decided by 8 points or fewer since losing 71-73 to ECU as 17.5-point favorites.  They will meet their match tonight in Houston, the best team in the AAC. 

Houston is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Cougars are 8-0 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  They play their best against the best teams.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home today.  Roll with Houston Sunday. 

20* Lakers/76ers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7 

Once again, LeBron James and the Lakers are big road underdogs to one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.  We saw how that worked out on Thursday as the Lakers pulled the upset at 9.5-point road dogs at Boston.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are a team in transition right now after just making the trade for Tobias Harris.  While it was a good trade and will work out for them in the long run, it’s going to take some time to implement him into their scheme.  There’s only one ball to go around, and it will be an interesting dynamic for a while with four guys who like to have the ball in their hands in Simmons, Butler, Emdiid and now Harris.  Plus, Embiid could sit today with an illness. 

The Lakers want to avenge their 105-121 home loss to the 76ers as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th less than two weeks ago.  But neither LeBron nor Kyle Kuzma played in that game.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers today.  This despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league, going 19-8 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Not to mention, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

Portland is just 10-13 SU & 10-13 ATS on the road this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Dallas won 111-102 as 2-point favorites and 115-109 as 7-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Portland. 

Dallas is 11-2 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The Mavericks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Portland and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -2.5 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from a 65-60 road loss to Indiana State as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 5th.  I think they’ll have their revenge with an easy win and cover as only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Bradley comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Braves are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They went on the road and upset Southern Illinois as 7-point dogs, blew out Illinois State by 17 as 1-point home dogs, won by 8 at Evansville as 2.5-point dogs and won at Northern Iowa by 8 as 5-point dogs.  That’s four upset wins in their last six games in which they’ve been a dog in all six.  This team is clearly undervalued right now. 

Indiana State is not playing well at all.  The Sycamores are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Both of their wins came at home against Valpo and Evansville.  They also lost at home to Drake and Loyola-Chicago, and are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 15 at Southern Illinois, by 14 at Illinois Stat and by 5 at Northern Iowa, which are three teams that Bradley has already beaten this season. 

Bradley is 8-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 5-15 ATS in all games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three years.  The Braves are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -11.5 

The New York Knicks are more blatantly tanking than any other team in the NBA.  They just suffered their 15th straight loss last night in a 103-120 setback at Detroit.  They has just lost to the Pistons the game before, so you’d think they would show some pride.  Nope.  Now the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with a short-handed roster. 

The Knicks have also lost 23 of their past 24 and 28 of their past 30 to fall to an NBA-worst 10-44.  Not to mention, New York has lost 15 straight home games.  They haven’t even been competitive lately as each of their last five losses have come by 12 points or more.  And that’s all it would take for the Raptors to cover tonight. 

Toronto is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with an 18-point home win over the Clippers, a 12-point road win at the 76ers and an 18-point road win at the Hawks.  Look for them to make easy work of the tanking Knicks tonight. 

Toronto is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Knicks with all five wins coming by 13 points or more and by an average of a whopping 20.6 points per game.  The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raptors Saturday. 

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia -2 

Virginia is 20-1 this season with its only loss coming 70-72 at Duke on January 19th.  Now, it’s time for the Cavaliers to revenge their only loss this season at home this time around.  I think we are getting great value on the Cavaliers as only 2-point home favorites in the rematch. 

Virginia is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  Duke’s four ACC road games have come against Wake Forest, FSU, Pitt and Notre Dame, basically the bottom of the barrel.  And the only decent team they faced on the road was FSU, and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Seminoles 80-78. 

Virginia is 10-1 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS off a home non-cover where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 27.7 points per game in this spot.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cavaliers are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1 

By losing three straight and five of their last seven overall, the Oklahoma Sooners have fallen to 15-8 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament.  They need a signature win, and today is a great chance to get one against a Top 25 opponent in Texas Tech. 

The Sooners suffered a heartbreaking 74-75 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  But Texas Tech isn’t as good as Iowa State, so this is a much more winnable game for them.  It’s also a revenge game after losing 59-66 at Texas Tech as 7-point dogs in a game they led the entire way until the closing minutes.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at home today. 

Oklahoma is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  Texas Tech has had some very ugly road losses recently in Big 12 play.  Indeed, the Red Raiders are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 road games.  They lost by 11 at Baylor as 4-point favorites, by 13 at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs and by 16 at Kansas as 4.5-point dogs. 

Oklahoma is 17-4 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings and is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Sooners are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Marquette -1.5 

Marquette is coming off its first home loss of the season in a tough 69-70 setback to St. John’s.  No question St. John’s is a quality team, but I think it was more Marquette overlooking them and looking ahead to this huge showdown with Villanova than anything.  And I think the Golden Eagles are getting undervalued now after that defeat. 

The Golden Eagles are still 14-1 at home this season.  And now they’ll get back on track against a Villanova team that it’s time to ’sell high’ on.  The Wildcats are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are overvalued due to this winning streak and from winning the national title last year.  They haven’t beaten very many quality teams during this streak as their four road games have come against Providence, Creighton, Butler and DePaul during it. 

Marquette gets an extra day to prepare for Villanova after last playing on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, Villanova needed overtime to beat Creighton 66-59 at home on Wednesday.  Now the Wildcats only have two days’ rest and are coming off an OT game obviously.  It’s just a great situation for the Golden Eagles on extra rest and coming off a loss. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Marquette is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -6 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines today.  They want revenge from their 54-64 upset loss as 3-point favorites at Wisconsin a few weeks back.  And now they are only 6-point home favorites in the rematch.  When you adjust for home-court advantage based on that first line, they should be 9-point favorites or more. 

But Wisconsin is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which is why the line has been adjusted so much.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Badgers, who aren’t very good but have been winning close game after close game during this stretch.  I expect them to get blown out of the building by the much superior, revenge-minded Wolverines today. 

Michigan is 14-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game.  The Wolverines are a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  The Wolverines get an extra day of rest after playing on Tuesday while the Badgers played in Minnesota on Wednesday.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -2.5 

Don’t look now but the Clemson Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season and at 14-8, have a great shot to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at NC State as 5-point dogs.  They have blasted Pitt by 13, Wake by 27 and Georgia Tech by 23 since that defeat. 

Virginia Tech is going the other direction due to an injury to its best player.  The Hokies are without Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) and have been without him the last two games.  Their offense has struggled to get anything going without their floor general as they managed just 47 points against NC State and 64 against Louisville in their two games without him.  This is a team that averages 76.7 PPG on the season. 

Clemson is 10-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off a win by more than 20 points.  Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  They are winning by 19.3 points per game in this spot.  Take Clemson Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +8 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATSin their last five games overall.  But the only impressive win was their road win at Toronto while the other four wins came against teams with losing records.  And the Bucks are banged up right now with Giannis likely to play in spite of a knee injury, but Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Nikola Mirotic are all out. 

Now the Bucks have to go on the road and face a Dallas Mavericks team that has been undervalued at home all season.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 19-7 SU & 19-7 ATS at home this year.  They don’t have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 8 points.  I realize Luka Doncic is questionable, but he has been listed as questionable a lot this season and seems to play every time.  I think that will be the case again tonight. 

The Mavericks aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers despite going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And they want revenge from a 10-point loss at Milwaukee as 10.5-point dogs on January 21st which started this streak.  Now they are catching 8 points at home in the rematch when if you adjust for home-court advantage they should only be catching 4.5 to 5.5 points.  That just shows how overvalued the Bucks are right now. 

The Mavericks are 14-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season, and they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucks.  Add the 9-1, 8-0, 7-0 & 6-0 systems together and we have a 30-1 system backing Dallas tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will want revenge on the Nets, who they have already lost to three times this season.  So they’ll be looking to avoid the season sweep.  And they just played the Nets on January 29th in a 117-122 road loss as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching 9 points in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

The Bulls are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they just traded for Otto Porter Jr., who could make his debut tonight and will add to an already very talented roster.  We should get a big effort from the Bulls, who have been impressive in their last four road games, upsetting Miami by 16 and Cleveland by 16 and only losing by 5 to Brooklyn and by 7 at Charlotte. 

The Nets are banged up right now.  They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  Yes, Caris LeVert is expected to return from a two-month absence, but he won’t play much tonight.  And this is certainly a tired Nets team as they will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.   

The Nets are coming off two huge games against the Bucks and Nuggets, and have Toronto on deck, so this is a sandwich spot as well.  They won’t be all that motivated to beat the Bulls for a 4th time this season.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some very competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes upset victories over the Bulls as 5-point dogs and the Wizards as 8-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 to Miami as 8.5-point dogs and by 7 to Boston as 10-point dogs. 

The Wizards have no business being this big of favorites over the Cavaliers.  They just traded away their second-best player in Otto Porter Jr.  They clearly aren’t concerned with winning too many games moving forward.  The Wizards are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset losses to the Cavs and Hawks, and three blowout losses by 13 points or more. 

The Cavs are rested and ready to go, too.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days today.  The Wizards are a tired team as they will be playing their 9th game in 16 days and they play again tomorrow night in Chicago.  It’s just a mentally, beat down team right now that is way too vulnerable to be asked to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight. 

Washington is 2-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +19 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are starting to just go through the motions.  The competition is so weak in the WCC that it’s easy to do.  But due to their 21-2 record and No. 4 ranking, they are consistently laying huge numbers in this conference.  And this one is too big. 

The Bulldogs have failed to cover three of their last five as 23-point favorites against Loyola-Marymount, 28-point favorites against Portland and 23-point favorites against San Diego.  Well, now they’re up against arguably the second-best team in the conference in San Francisco, and they’re laying a whopping 19 points.  It’s simply too much. 

That’s especially the case when you consider the Dons actually led Gonzaga by two points with under four minutes to play in San Francisco on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  But the Bulldogs close on a 17-2 run and posted a misleading 96-83 victory.  You can bet the Dons want some revenge tonight.   

Few teams have played Gonzaga as close as the Dons as three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or fewer.  San Francisco is 17-5 this season, and all five losses came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer against teams not named Gonzaga. 

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Gonzaga) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1997.  Bet San Francisco Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Orlando Magic are playing some great basketball right now.  They are flying under the radar because they have had some tough luck in close games.  Each fo their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including five by 5 points or less.  And their last three wins have come by an average of 13 points per game.  So, despite being 5-8 in their last 13 games, they have actually only been outscored by one point during this stretch. 

Minnesota is struggling right now due to injuries.  They are missing their top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, as well as key 3-and-D man Robert Covington.  The Timberwolves are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming at home against lowly Memphis 99-97 in overtime. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  And Orlando basically just has to win to cover tonight.  That shouldn’t be a problem against a Timberwolves team that is just 8-18 SU on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 21-51 ATS in its last 72 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis was basically missing everyone, and still beat Minnesota last time out.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Orlando is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +2.5 

The Houston Cougars are the 12th-ranked team in the country with their 21-1 start to the season.  But they have benefited from an extremely easy schedule.  For starters, they have played 16 of their 22 games at home this season.  And now they face their stiffest road test of the season tonight. 

UCF is 16-4 this season and one of the best teams in the AAC.  They will be highly motivated tonight with a Top 25 team coming to town.  If they want any shot at winning the AAC, this is a must-win game for them.  It could also help their tournament resume, while Houston is safely in. 

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  They have beaten the likes of Alabama, Illinois State, Temple, Tulsa and UConn at home this year.  Their only home loss came by a single point back in their second game of the season. 

The Knights are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or better over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  UCF is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with UCF Thursday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +4.5 

The Memphis Tigers are coming off back-to-back road losses to Tulsa and South Florida.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face a Top 25 team in Cincinnati.  I fully expect the Tigers to pull off the upset tonight. 

Cincinnati has been extremely fortunate in close games lately, which has them overvalued.  They have won seven straight coming in, but four of those wins came by 5 points or fewer, and six of them came by 11 points or less.  They’ve haven’t been impressive at all in their last four road games, losing outright to ECU as 17.5-point favorites, needing OT to beat Tulsa by 5, needing a huge second half comeback to beat Temple by 4, and also getting a huge second half to turn a deficit into a win at Wichita State. 

Memphis has been a completely different team at home this season.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this year, scoring 89.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting.  Their only home loss came to current No. 1 ranked Tennessee by 10.  They beat UCF by 20 as 1-point favorites and SMU by 22 as 3-point favorites in their last two home games, two of the most impressive results in the AAC this season. 

Memphis is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 games off two straight conference losses.  Cincinnati is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after it was called for 10 or fewer fouls.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Memphis Thursday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +3 

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their win total was 24.5 coming into the season.  They already have 28 wins and surpassed their win total two weeks ago.  Sacramento fans are excited about this team and continue to pack the Golden 1 Center because of it. 

That’s why the Kings have had so much success at home of late.  Indeed, the Kings are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  Their only loss came to the Warriors by 4 as 8-point dogs.  They have upset the likes of the Blazers, 76ers and Spurs at home during this stretch. 

Now I expect the Kings to upset the Rockets, who are still without Clint Capela and could be without Eric Gordon, who is questionable.  The wear and tear on James Harden is starting to show despite the fact that he keeps putting up big numbers.  The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 

I expect both Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley to dominate the paint with Capela out, which is going to be a key to victory here.  Bagley has missed 14 games due to injury, but they’ve been a different team since he returned.  Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last six games as he’s had his minutes steadily increase. 

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 3-13 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 10-2 ATS at home when he line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +3 

It’s clearly time to ’sell high’ on the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are being asked to go on the road and lay points to a Minnesota team with an identical 16-6 record as them.  It’s clearly a sign that the Badgers are overvalued now. 

Let’s just look at the line compared to the last time these teams played.  Minnesota won outright 59-52 at Wisconsin as 9-point dogs.  And now Wisconsin is getting way too much respect again as 3-point road favorites. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how well Minnesota has played at home this season.  The Gophers are 12-1 SU at home.  The Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Minnesota Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks made the trade with the Knicks at a great time.  They’ve been off since Saturday, February 2nd.  That has allowed their new players from the Knicks to get in some important practice time and get accustomed to their new city.  They should come out like gangbusters tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. 

While the Mavericks are on three days’ rest, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  This is a tired Hornets team that will also be without backup PG Tony Parker, who suffered a back injury last night against the Clippers. 

The Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS at home.  The Hornets are just 7-18 SU & 11-14 ATS on the road, giving up a whopping 115.4 points per game on 48% shooting on the highway.  Dallas beat Charlotte 122-84 on the road in their first meeting this season. 

The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Dallas is 13-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.  The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5 

This is a revenge game for Missouri State.  They lost by 5 on the road to Southern Illinois in their first meeting this season.  And they’ve actually lost nine straight in this series to the Salukis.  It’s safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory at home Wednesday night. 

Missouri State is 8-2 at home this season.  Its last two home games were probably two of the most impressive wins in the Missouri Valley this season.  They beat Bradley by 18 in their last home game, 55-37.  But the one that stands out is their 70-35 win over a Loyola-Chicago team that made the Final Four last year and is arguably still the best team in the conference this year.   

It’s the same Loyola-Chicago team that beat Southern Illinois by 25 a few weeks back.  And when you compare common opponents this season, it’s easy to see that the Bears are the better team.  They’ve played 10 games against teams that Southern Illinois has also faced.  They are outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game in those 10 games, while Southern Illinois is actually getting outscored by 0.8 points per game. 

The Bears are outscoring their opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this season.  Southern Illinois is 4-14 ATS vs. good shooting teams that shoot 45% or better over the last two seasons.  The Salukis are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Missouri State Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -4 

I love the spot for Providence tonight.  They are back home after a brutal stretch in which they played four of their last five games on the road.  And they will be seeking revenge on a Georgetown team that beat them 96-90 (OT) in their first meeting this season. 

Georgetown grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat twice in that first meeting.  They banked in a 3-pointer to force the first overtime, and hit another 3-pointer in the final seconds to force a second overtime, where they eventually won by 6.  You can bet these Friars players have not forgotten and want their revenge. 

It was a rare win for the Hoyas in this series.  Indeed, Providence is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Friars get one extra day to prepare too after playing on Saturday, while Georgetown lost at Villanova on Sunday.  The Hoyas were tied with the Wildcats late but went on an awful run to close.  They could easily suffer a hangover from that defeat against the defending national champs now. 

Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 14-3 ATS reining a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last three years.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -2.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren’t even ranked right now despite being 16-5 on the season and 6-2 in Big 12 play.  And they just recently got healthy, which has led to them playing their best basketball of the season. 

Indeed, the Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.  They have gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State during this stretch with two of those wins coming by double-digits.  They’ve also beaten WVU, TCU (by 10) and Texas Tech (by 13) at home.  Now they’ll be highly motivated for a win here against their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks. 

Kansas is more vulnerable then I can remember for quite some time.  They lost big man Udoka Azubuike for the season entering Big 12 play, and now they are also without fellow starter Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG).  The Jayhawks have lost three of their last five games overall with all three losses coming on the road at WVU, Kentucky and Texas. 

Kansas State is 10-1 SU at home this season.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 games.  This is the Wildcats’ best chance to beat Kansas in quite some time, and I expect them to take full advantage at home tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 207 

The injuries the Timberwolves and Grizzlies are dealing with right now are getting comical.  These injuries have affected these teams offensively more than anything, especially the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is without its top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones.  They are also without Robert Covington. 

The Grizzlies are without Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Garrett Temple, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons.  They’ve managed to stay competitive recently despite these injuries, but they’ve really had to slow the pace down and win with defense.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 187, 196, 192 and 180 points. 

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves always seem to play in low-scoring games.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings, making for an 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 207-point total set.  And they just played each other on January 30th in a 99-97 (OT) victory by the Timberwolves.  That game was tied 93-93 at the end or regulation for 186 combined points.  And these teams are obviously very familiar with one another now, which favors another low-scoring game. 

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER at home with ta line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off two consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -2 

The Syracuse Orange are playing too well right now to only be 2-point home favorites over the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  Syracuse is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall with.  That includes road wins over Duke, ND, Pitt and BC as well as home wins over Clemson, Pitt and Miami. 

Florida State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seminoles lost three straight to Duke, Pitt and BC before winning three straight against Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech and are getting too much respect for their three-game winning streak.  The Seminoles are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in ACC true road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Syracuse is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with FSU winning by 10, 13 and 13 points. 

The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Seminoles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Florida State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 ACC games.  Take Syracuse Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, not to mention their 5th different city in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA. 

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they just recently lost their best player in Victor Oladipo.  They have been able to get by the Pelicans and Heat for their two wins since losing him, but are still just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games without him.  They don’t have the firepower to beat the Lakers tonight without him given the tough rest spot. 

The Lakers come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.  LeBron James is healthy now and rested last game, so he will be primed for a big effort.  And the Lakers are about as healthy as they’ve been all season right now as the only key player they are missing right now is Lonzo Ball, but his absence is not too big of a deal now with a healthy Rajon Rondo. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Lakers) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle -1.5 

The La Salle Explorers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball right now due to their 6-14 SU record.  Bettors see that record and automatically want nothing to do with them.  But a closer look shows that they are way better than that record would indicate, and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them. 

La Salle played a brutal non-conference schedule, but that prepared them for the Atlantic 10 season.  And the Explorers have been a money maker for weeks now.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They have won three in a row outright as underdogs coming in with road wins at Fordham and Richmond, as well as a home win over UMass. 

Conversely, St. Joe’s has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Hawks are 10-12 SU & 7-14 ATS this season.  They are just 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS in all road games, including 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in true road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  The Explorers basically just have to win to cover here as 1.5-point favorites.  The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.  It’s because they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with covers against Houston, Denver and San Antonio.  But they trailed by 20-plus points in the 4th quarter against the Spurs before Popovich pulled starters and they made a big comeback. 

Those three covers were surprising because the Pelicans are missing five of their six best players in Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton and E’Twuan Moore.  It’s possible to play well for a few games without so many players, but in the long run it’s going to catch up to them.  And I think it catches up to them tonight. 

The Pacers picked up their first win since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury with an impressive 95-88 win at Miami last time out.  But keep in mind they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 games and their only home game was against Golden State.  This will be their easiest test here since losing Oladipo, and I look for them to take advantage by burying the short-handed Pelicans. 

Indiana is 30-9 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 3-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  New Orleans is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games off an ATS win.  Roll with the Pacers Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -3 

The Northwestern Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back road losses to Wisconsin and Maryland.  Now they should be able to get right against the worst team in the Big Ten in Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Purdue, and I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat.  This is a real deflated team right now mentally having not won a conference game yet. 

Penn State is 0-6 SU in true road games this season.  Northwestern is 9-3 SU In home games.  The home team won both meetings last season with Northwestern winning by 9 and Penn State winning by 15.  And I think the Wildcats have extra motivation after losing to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Tournament last year. 

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Nittany Lions are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -7 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season.  They are 38-13 on the year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They simply have not weaknesses. 

The Brooklyn Nets are extremely vulnerable right now due to injuries.  They are without Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley.  Joe Harris is questionable tonight with a hip injury.  They lost by 13 at Orlando last time out, and I just don’t think they have enough firepower with all of these injuries to keep up with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee won its lone meetings with Brooklyn 129-115 this season.  They led by 19 at halftime and coasted in the second half.  The Bucks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Nets with their 11 wins coming by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The Bucks are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Brooklyn.  Milwaukee is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.  Take the Bucks Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +14 

The UConn Huskies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 14-point home favorites over the East Carolina Pirates.  For a team that is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall, the Huskies sure are getting a lot off respect here. 

East Carolina has played some of the best teams in the AAC very tough this season.  They beat Cincinnati outright as 17.5-point home underdogs.  They only lost by 6 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs and by 11 at UCF as 16.5-point dogs.  UConn has already lost to both Cincinnati and UCF this season as well and has yet to play Memphis. 

ECU has UConn’s number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Last year, they only lost by 4 as 6.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 16.5-point road dogs.  The year before, they beat UConn by 4 as 3-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 9-point road dogs. 

UConn is 0-7 ATS after four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with East Carolina Sunday.

15* Minnesota/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +12 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from the Purdue Boilermakers.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 57-59 as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan.  If they can hang with Michigan on the road, they can certainly hang with Purdue. 

The Boilermakers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them.  They needed overtime to beat Penn State on Thursday, and now they have only had two days to get ready for Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers come in on three days’ rest off their 11-point home win over Illinois on Wednesday. 

The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Minnesota Sunday.

20* 76ers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They just ended the Warriors’ winning streak with a 113-104 road victory as 8-point underdogs.  After beating the defending champs, there’s no chance the 76ers show up tonight in Sacramento.  They probably spent the last couple nights partying celebrating that victory. 

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they’ll be without two starters tonight in J.J. Redick *18.3 PPG) and Wilson Chandler (6.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG).  The 76ers lack a bench, so without those two they’ll be extremely short-handed.  And the Kings will test them because they play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA. 

The Kings are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Sacramento has been playing really well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They won by 22 over Atlanta, by 8 over Portland, by 7 over Charlotte, by 10 over Detroit, by 16 over Orlando and only lost by 4 to the Warriors as 8-point dogs. 

The Kings are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in home games off a home game this season. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Saturday.   

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -1 

It’s safe to say Illinois State is going to be highly motivated for a victory over Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  Illinois State had its NCAA Tournament bid taken away by Loyola-Chicago in the MVC Championship Game last year, and the Ramblers turned that into a Final Four run. 

Then, in their first meeting this year, Loyola-Chicago won a hard-fought 67-64 game at home over Illinois State as 9-point favorites.  It was a fourth straight victory for the Ramblers in this series.  Now the Redbirds will be more motivated to win this game than any this season.  Look for them to show up in a big way at home tonight. 

Illinois State is 9-2 at home this season.  The Redbirds are playing very well coming in, going 4-1 in their last five games, including their 14-point win at Drake last time out.  Loyola-Chicago has been vulnerable on the road this season.  The Ramblers are 2-3 SU in their last five true road games with a bad loss at St. Joe’s, and blowout road losses at Missouri State by 35 and Evansville by 19. 

The Ramblers just lost fourth-leading scorer Lucas Williamson (8.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) to a hand injury.  He won’t be back until late-February.  The Redbirds are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Illinois State Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 

It’s safe to say the Orlando Magic will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They have lost twice to Brooklyn in the last two weeks 115-117 at home and 110-114 on the road.  Those were both gut-wrenching losses.  They want revenge in a big way tonight. 

The Nets are coming off a tough 114-117 loss at San Antonio.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they certainly won’t be all that motivated to beat the Magic for a 3rd time in two weeks.  It’s also a sandwich game for them with the Milwaukee Bucks on deck, a game they could easily be looking ahead to. 

The Nets are without Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  The Dinwiddie loss is huge because he single-handedly beat the Magic the first time these teams played.  What made the Nets so dangerous was having Dinwiddie (17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and D’Angelo Russell (19.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) being interchangeable.  Russell now has to do too much. 

Orlando is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -4.5 

It’s a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Marshall Thundering Herd today.  They have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they have lost three of their last four straight up.  But it’s worth noting that all three losses were on the road. 

Marshall is back home here where it is much more comfortable.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game on the season.  UTSA is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three true road games, getting upset at Middle Tennessee, and losing by 10 at UAB and by 8 at WKU. 

Marshall is 36-18 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Thundering Herd are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Marshall) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points in their last five games are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Marshall Saturday. 

15* St. John’s/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +17.5 

The St. John’s Red Storm have to feel disrespected being this big of underdogs to Duke Saturday.  This is a Red Storm team that is 16-5 this season with all five losses coming by 11 points or less.  They’ve essentially had a chance to win every game they’ve played, and I think they’ll give Duke a run for its money today. 

I’ve been real impressed with how well St. John’s has played on the road this season.  The Red Storm are 3-3 in true road games this season with their losses coming to Seton Hall (by 2), Villanova (by 5) and Butler (by 9). They’ve beaten Creighton (by 16), Rutgers (by 19) and Georgetown (by 3) on the highway this year. 

Duke has been vulnerable in recent home games.  They lost outright to Syracuse 91-95 as 17-point favorites, and they needed a big 2nd half surge to beat Georgia Tech 66-53 as 22.5-point favorites.  They also only beat Virginia by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games. 

St. John’s is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Red Storm are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off a game where they attempted 7 or fewer free throws.  St. John’s is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents, which includes their upset of Duke last season.  Duke is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big East foes. 

Plays against any team (Duke) - off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent against a team that’s off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. John’s Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida PK 

The South Florida Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  Not much was expected of them this season, and yet they’ve gone 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS on the year.  And they’re still getting no respect from oddsmakers here as a pick ‘em at home against Memphis. 

The Bulls have been really good at home this season, going 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game and 40.2% shooting on their home floor.  They have home wins over UConn by 8, Tulane by 18 and Wichita State by 13 in league play.  Their only loss came to Houston, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

South Florida has a huge rest advantage in this game.  They are working on six days’ rest, while Memphis will be working on just two days’ rest and will be playing its 2nd road game in 4 days.  The Tigers will also be playing their 3rd game in 7 days, while USF will be playing just its 2nd game in 11 days. 

Memphis is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at Tulane by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  The Tigers lost by 9 at LSU, by 13 at Houston, by 9 at Temple and by 16 at Tulsa.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 AAC games.  South Florida is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Plays against an underdog (Memphis) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) after 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with South Florida Saturday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State -2 

The NC State Wolfpack have lost two of their last three games coming in.  They lost by seven at Louisville and by one in overtime at home to Virginia.  Those aren’t bad losses.  The Wolfpack are 16-5 on the season with all five losses coming by 8 points or less.  They have come back to win in their next game following each loss this season. 

The Wolfpack are 12-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in UNC and Virginia.  They are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game at home this year.  They should be laying more than two points to Virginia Tech here. 

The Hokies have some serious injury concerns coming into this game.  Justin Robinson (14.4 PPG, 5.5 APG) suffered a toe injury last game and is doubtful to play today.  He is their floor general and shoots 47.5% from the field and 82.5% from the free throw line, so he will be missed.  Key reserve P.J. Horne (4.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is also expected to miss this game. 

Virginia Tech has played five true road games this season.  The Hokies are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this year.  Their only wins came by 3 at Georgia Tech as 7-point favorites and by 12 at Miami as 8-point favorites; two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They lost by 22 at Virginia and by 21 at North Carolina.  They were also upset by Penn State on the road, and Penn State still hasn’t won a Big Ten game. 

The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  NC State has won its last three home meetings with Virginia Tech by an average of 15.3 points per game.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  It’s also worth noting the Wolfpack are working on three days’ rest while the Hokies are only on two days’ rest.  Bet NC State Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -6 

The Charlotte Hornets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 94-126 at Boston last time out.  Now they return home highly motivated for a victory against the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. 

This is a Grizzlies team that is just 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  It’s also a Grizzlies team that is looking to trade its two best players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention, Conley is unlikely to play with a knee injury, and both Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are out.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a quad injury as well. 

The Hornets simply own the Grizzlies.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with them with the four wins coming by a whopping 24.0 points per game.  That includes their 118-107 win in Memphis in their first meeting this season.  This is a tired Grizzlies team that will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Hornets will be playing just their 5th game in 12 days. 

Memphis is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  Memphis is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are seeking revenge from a 75-81 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season earlier this month.  They should have their revenge at home this time around as only 2.5-point favorites. 

While Georgetown is just 6-4 in its last 10 games overall, all four losses have come by 6 points or less and by a combined 16 points.  This team is much better than its 13-7 record would indicate, but they’ve just had some poor luck in close games.  Six of their seven losses have come by single-digits. 

Xavier is clearly a rebuilding team at 11-10 this season.  The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season with losses by 15, 15, 18 and 10 points.  Their only road win came at lowly DePaul. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their attempts this season.  The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week this season.  Roll with Georgetown Thursday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors lost their first two meetings this season with the Bucks.  But they won their 3rd meeting on the road earlier this month, and now they’ll be highly motivated to even the season series in what could be a possible tiebreaker for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed.  I look for the Raptors to get the job done at home tonight. 

Toronto is in a dream spot here having three days’ rest to get ready for the Bucks.  They last played on Sunday in Dallas.  Now they’re rested and back home, where they are 21-4 this season and outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per game. 

Milwaukee is in a much tougher spot here as it will be playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Bucks are in the midst of a five-game road trip here.  And the Raptors are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time as they are now just missing Jonas Valanciunas, who is expected to return soon. 

Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are now 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury.  They lost to the lowly Grizzlies, were blown out at home by the Warriors by 32, and were blown out on the road by the Wizards by 18. 

Now the Pacers are short-handed without both Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, and they have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they’ll be up against a highly motivated Orlando Magic team on the road here. 

The Magic have lost four straight, but all four came by single-digits, and each fo their last seven losses have come by 10 points or less.  They’ve simply had some tough luck in close games of late.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, tired Pacers tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - a good team that outscores their opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 81-41 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its lsat seven road games.  The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Thursday. 

20* USC/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +7.5 

This number jumped out to me right away as being too high.  I think it’s inflated because Washington has been a covering machine of late.  Indeed, the Huskies have won nine straight and have covered seven straight coming in.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Huskies tonight. 

USC is playing too good right now to be catching 7.5 points from Washington. The Trojans have won three straight coming in by 13 over UCLA, by 23 over Arizona and by 2 over Arizona State.  They had some injuries earlier in the season, but now they are as healthy as they’ve been all year, and it’s starting to show. 

The Trojans are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming on the road to Oregon and Oregon State, including one of those in overtime.  And USC hasn’t lost to Washington by more than 8 points in any of their last 10 meetings. 

Mike Hopkins is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less as the coach of Washington.  USC is 71-37 ATS in its last 108 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Trojans are 9-2 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  Bet USC Wednesday. 

15* Jazz/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting between the Jazz and Blazers this season.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, especially after just playing on January 21st.  Each of the first three meetings in this series have seen 213 or fewer combined points. 

When you look even further back at the head-to-head history, it’s easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Blazers have combined for 217 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings now, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER when pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings as well. 

The Jazz rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the month of January.  The Blazers have also been solid this month, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency.  Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace this month. 

The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 31-12 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last two seasons.  Quin Snyder is 51-28 UNDER vs. division opponents as the coach of Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a tough six-game road trip.  They’ve had plenty of time to recover with two days’ rest and they’ll be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  They are certainly happy to be back home, where they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Atlanta is getting too much respect for its upset win over the Clippers as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday.  But the Clippers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and I was actually on the Hawks in that game.  I’ll gladly fade them tonight in a spot that is much better for the Kings. 

Sacramento won 146-115 in its first meeting at Atlanta.  The Kings also won 105-90 at home in their final meeting last year.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Kings are 10-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 10.7 points per game on average.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. 

Atlanta is 9-24 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games overall the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 9-18 ATS off a road game this season.  Sacramento is 22-10 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3 

The Boston College Eagles come in playing well having gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They also upset Florida State 87-82 as 7-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch. 

Syracuse is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  But they’ve benefited from a home-heavy schedule during this stretch with six of those nine games at home.  And they lost by 22 at Virginia Tech over the weekend. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the past few seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, with Boston College winning by 15 and 15 in its two home meetings with Syracuse.  The Eagles have a big edge in rest here as this will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, while the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. 

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  Boston College is 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games overall rate last two seasons.  The Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 ACC games.  Roll with Boston College Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -1.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2 at home this season and have wins over the likes of Kentucky and Ole Miss in conference play already. 

Mississippi State is ranked in the Top 25 at 15-4 this season, but the Bulldogs have benefited from an easy early schedule.  Their true colors have shown in SEC play as they are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS.  They lost two of their three true road gams at South Carolina (by 5) and at Kentucky (by 21).  Their only road win came at lowly Vanderbilt. 

Alabama is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Mississippi State with its only loss coming 63-67 on the road last season.  Dating back further, the Crimson Tide are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Bulldogs. 

Alabama is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  Mississippi State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Crimson Tide are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -3 

This feels like a great time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska and ’sell high’ on Wisconsin tonight.  Nebraska has lost three straight and failed to cover the spread in all three against Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State coming in.  Now the Huskers are in desperate need of a victory and should play with a chip on their shoulder at home tonight. 

Wisconsin has won three straight and covered three straight coming in.  They beat both Michigan and Northwestern at home, while also winning at Illinois.  But they had lost four of their previous five games and I think this run is more of an aberration than anything.  This Wisconsin team just isn’t very good with few playmakers outside of Ethan Happ. 

Nebraska is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its lsat four meetings with Wisconsin.  It’s only loss came in overtime by a single point.  The Huskers won by 11 and by 12 in their two road meetings during this stretch, and by 4 at home.  I think they should have no problem winning by at least 4 points at home here Tuesday night given how motivated they’ll be. 

Nebraska is 20-2 SU in its last 22 home games.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS as a home favorite or PK over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Huskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Wisconsin.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I think this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on Orlando and ’sell high’ on Oklahoma City tonight.  The Magic are catching 5.5 points at home against the Thunder and will have an excellent chance to win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

We’re buying low on a Magic team that has lost six of its last seven coming in.  But they’ve had some hard-luck losses during this stretch.  They lost by 5 in OT at Detroit, by 2 to Brooklyn, but 4 at Brooklyn, by 4 to Washington and by 5 at Houston.  The only time they lost by more than 5 during this stretch was when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in a 10-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs. 

We’ll sell high on a Thunder team that has won five straight coming in.  But the Thunder had lost five of their previous six before that.  And four of their last five wins have come by single-digits.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder as well off their huge 118-112 home win over the Bucks on Sunday.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

Orlando just has a knack for playing Oklahoma City tough.  Indeed, the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -1 

These aren’t the same Kansas Jayhawks that we’ve been accustomed to seeing for years.  This is actually the worst Kansas team that I can remember, and a lot of that has to do with the season-ending injury to their star big man in Udoka Azubuike.  They lack an inside presence and aren’t nearly as physical as most former Kansas teams. 

It’s been obvious to see that the Jayhawks have been overrated most of the season.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations since Big 12 play started.  The Jayhawks are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing at Arizona State, Iowa State, WVU and Kentucky. 

Texas certainly wants revenge from its 78-80 loss at Kansas as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  I think getting the Jayhawks at home this time around will make all the difference.  Adding to Texas’ motivation is the fact that it is off back-to-back road losses at TCU and Georgia and will be glad to be back home here Tuesday night. 

Texas is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Texas) - revenging a close loss of 3 points or less, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Take Texas Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +8.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been flying under the radar since SEC play started.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset Florida as 12.5-point road dogs, upset Mississippi State as 6-point home dogs, rolled Missouri by 10 at home, upset Vanderbilt as 4-point road dogs, and upset Auburn as 8-point home dogs. 

Now the Gamecocks will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face the No. 1 team in the country in Tennessee.  And with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are tough for the Vols to live up to.  That has shown here of late as they only beat Alabama by 3 as 13-point home favorites and needed OT to beat Vanderbilt on the road as 9.5-point favorites.  They did beat WVU at home by 17, but only covered by 2 and WVU is one of the worst teams in the Big 12. 

South Carolina is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Tennessee.  The two losses came by 7 points at home and by 3 points on the road.  The three wins came by 26, 10 and 27 points.  The Gamecocks clearly have the Vols’ number and should not be catching 8.5 points to them at home tonight. 

South Carolina is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 SEC games.  Tennessee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where they were called for five-plus less fouls than their opponent.  Rick Barnes is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games as the coach of the Vols.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since January 2-3.  This is a very tired Clippers team right now. 

The Atlanta Hawks are rested and ready to go.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  They won at Chicago 121-101 and only lost 111-120 at Portland in the first two games of this seven-game road trip. 

The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to wear down with James Harden having to shoulder too much of the load with both Clint Capela and Chris Paul out. And they certainly should not be 8.5-point favorites over the Magic tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at home to the Nets in overtime and needed OT to beat the Lebron-less Lakers at home as well.  They lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and they needed some last-second heroics from Eric Gordon to beat the lowly Knicks by 4.  They also beat the Raptors by 2 at home during this stretch. 

The Magic just beat the Rockets 116-109 as 5.5-point home dogs on January 13th.  The Magic haven’t lost by more than 7 to the Rockets in five of their last seven meetings.  And they should be able to stay within the number here. 

Houston is 4-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in their last trips to Houston.  Take the Magic Sunday.