15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz UNDER 195

The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are two of the most defensive-minded teams in the NBA.  They both have two Defensive Player of the Year candidates at center with Hassan Whiteside for the Heat and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.  Points will be hard to come by in this one folks.

Utah ranks 25th in the NBA in pace at 98.7 possessions per game.  Miami is 17th in pace at 100.5 possessions per game.  Utah ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  But Utah is just 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, while MIami is 23rd at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Miami's defensive efficiency numbers (17th, 103.9) are misleading.  Whiteside has missed five games for the Heat this season.  But since he has returned, they have been dominant on the defensive end.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last five and an average of just 99.8 points and 41.3% shooting during this stretch.

Miami is 42-23 UNDER as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six games playing on two days' rest.  Utah and Miami have combined for 195 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* 2017 College Hoops Season Opener on Missouri -4

This is the perfect storm.  I want to fade Iowa State because of all they lost in the offseason, and I want to back Missouri because of all they bring back and gained in the offseason.  Iowa State is a clear 'sell' team, while Missouri is a clear 'buy' team.

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

Missouri is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers return four starters in Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg, 4.4 apg), Jordan Geist (7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  They have a ton or returning experience, but it's the newcomers they have that has me excited about this team.

Nine days after Missouri hired Martin, the top prospect in the 2017 class, Michael Porter Jr., pledged to the Tigers.  Porter's father, Michael Sr., is on Martin's staff.  Guard Blake Harris signed with Missouri the next day, and former Illinois commit Jeremiah Tilman, a four-star prospect, was inked a month later.  In August, Jontay Porter made it official and reclassified to 2017 to join his brother and gave the Tigers another big man and five-start prospect to add to the mix.  Those four joined Texas guard C.J. Roberts and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson as Missouri's influx of talent.

This is a pretty cheap price to lay for Missouri with all of this talent in their home opener against a rebuilding team in Iowa State.  You won't find this kind of value on them as the season moves along and the betting public realizes how good this team is.  But because they went 8-24 last year, they are flying under the radar.  Bet Missouri Friday.

15* Cavs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers should play in a highly entertaining shootout tonight.  They did in both meetings last season with the home team winning both.  Cleveland won 128-120 for 248 combined points, while Houston won 117-112 for 229 combined points.

The Rockets lost Patrick Beverly, their best defender, and have become even more of an offensive juggernaut this season while taking a step back defensively.  Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's bad news for Cleveland, which ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  But the Cavaliers also remain an offensive juggernaut, ranking 2nd in efficiency while scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions.  And both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games overall, combining with their opponents for 231, 252, 232 and 243 points in those four games.  That trend continues tonight as this game gets up and OVER the total.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11

The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.

The Timberwolves are improving rapidly.  It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.

The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again.  They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.

Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ESPN Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 211

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to push the tempo this season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.3 possessions per game.  They are starting to gel offensively, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers are averaging 113.5 points per game in their last four.  But they are giving up 107.3 points per game on the season, including 113.0 points per game on the road.  "The chemistry's building," Lonzo Ball said Monday. "We're playing a lot faster, and in half-court we're cutting a lot harder. Guys are knowing where people are at now. It's getting a lot easier."

Now they're up against a young Celtics team that is also firing on all cylinders offensively right now.  The Celtics have scored 101 or more points in each of their last five games.  They have won nine in a row coming in and are averaging 107.7 points per game at home.

Boston is 12-0 OVER in home games after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 10-1 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 11-5 in Lakers last 16 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in Celtics last 22 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets.  They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.

Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center.  Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.

The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game.  Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup.  He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.  And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard.  The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well.  This is an underrated lineup.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season.  They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.

The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS.  And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits.  They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.

The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday.  They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.

John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game.  It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.

The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch.  They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already.  That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.

"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."

The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226

The Miami Heat have been playing much better defense since Hassan Whiteside returned from a five-game absence due to injury.  Whiteside has played in the last three games, all of which have gone UNDER the total.  He is one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA and doesn't allow many easy  buckets in the paint.

The Heat beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points, they lost to the Nuggets 94-95 for 189 combined points, and they beat the Clippers 104-101 for 205 combined points.  I think we see a bigger defensive battle than the books are expecting tonight against the Golden State Warriors with this massive 226-point total.

Both meetings between Miami and Golden State went UNDER the total last year.  The Warriors won 107-95 at home over the Heat for just 202 combined points.  The Heat pulled the upset at home 105-102 for 207 combined points.  Asking these teams to get to 227 or more to beat us is asking a lot tonight.

Miami is 13-2 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 28-15 in all Miami road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Heat last five games when playing on zero days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns.  The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game.  Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago.  So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip.  Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.

Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday.  So they will be the fresher team.  The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.

Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday.  They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.

The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries.  Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries.  Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.

The Lakers are vastly improved this season.  They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS.  They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home.  Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.

The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Clippers UNDER 207.5

The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers boast two of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  It's Hassan Whiteside of the Heat up against De'Andre Jordan of the Clippers.  Both guys are going to make it difficult for the opposition to find easy baskets in the paint in this one.

Whiteside missed five straight games for the Heat, and there were some high-scoring games in there.  But he returned for the last two, and it's no surprise we have seen two straight defensive battles from the Heat.  They beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points and the Nuggets 95-94 for 189 combined points in those two contests.

The Clippers are coming off three straight overs, but that is the reason this line is inflated.  They opened the season with five straight UNDERS, and that's the team that we can expect to see going forward.  The Clippers are built on defense with Jordan and elite PG defender Patrick Beverly leading the way.

Thhe UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Heat and Clipppers.  They have combined for 200 or fewer points in each of those five meetings.  They have averaged just 193 combined points over those five games, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  We are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER as you can see.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the season.  They are coming off a 21-point beat down of Dallas and are very healthy right now, plus they've had two days' rest to get ready for the Grizzlies.

Memphis started fast but hit the skids due to injuries.  The Grizzlies lost to both the Hornets and Magic at home in each of their last two games.  Now they are going to have their hands full with one of the best teams they have faced this year in the Clippers.

Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury, though he is supposed to play tonight.  Marc Gasol sat out last game and is questionable to return with an ankle injury.  Wayne Selden missed last game and is questionable with a quad injury.  And JaMychal Green is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  I just don't see how the Grizzlies can be competitive tonight give their current state.

The Clippers have owned the Grizzlies in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  All four of their wins have come by 9 points or more and by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat finally returned to near full strength last time out against the Chicago Bulls.  Hassan Whiteside made his return from a five-game absence, and they promptly dispatched the Bulls 97-91.  They had lost their three previous games without Whiteside, though two of those went right down to the wire with a 90-96 loss to the Celtics and a 122-125 (OT) loss to the Timberwolves.

I think with Whiteside back now, this team should get back to playing the way they did in the second half of last year.  They were one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the second half.  And now that they've started the season 0-5-2 ATS, they are grossly undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Heat.

And I love the spot here fading the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are coming off a huge 129-111 home win over the Raptors.  So they were already going to be in a letdown spot, but now they're also in a lookahead spot with an even bigger game coming up tomorrow against the Golden State Warriors.  The Nuggets won't be giving the Heat the full attention that they deserve to be able to cover this lofty 5.5-point spread.

Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Cavs/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 221

The Washington Wizards have been lighting up the scoreboard this season.  They are averaging 112.3 points per game while ranking 5th in offensive efficiency.  But they are also giving up 108.1 points per game and just allowed 122 to the Phoenix Suns last time out.

The Wizards will have their way with a Cleveland Cavaliers team that has really been struggling on the defensive end.  The Cavs allow 111.9 points per game while ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions.

And now the Cavaliers lost their best defender in Tristan Thompson to a 3-4 week calf injury last time out.  So that means they are going to have to go even smaller with Jamison Crowder taking Thompson's place.  And they have to go small anyways to match up with Washington's elite small-ball starting 5 lineup.

This has the makings of an up-tempo, shootout, and that has been the case the last two times these teams got together.  The Cavs beat the Wizards 140-135 in Washington, while the Wizards won 127-115 in Cleveland in their final two meetings of 2016-17.

The OVER is 23-11 in Cavs' last 34 games overall.  The OVER is 27-9 in Cavs' last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 12-2 in Cavs' last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The OVER is 9-2 in Cavs' last 11 Friday games.  The OVER is 10-1 in Wizards' last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Golden State -7

We're getting the Golden State Warriors at a discount tonight due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have been a bigger favorite than this in seven of their eight games thus far.  They have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

But they got right with a 141-113 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point road favorites on Monday.  They have since had two days off to get ready for the Spurs and build off their best performance of the season thus far.  The end of October used to be the traditional start to the NBA season, so head coach Steve Kerr simply acted as if he were back in his playing days when he spoke to his team.

"That looked like us," Kerr said. "I told the guys that tomorrow is Halloween, which means that (Monday) was opening night. Training camp is over, so we're back to being us."

"Our defense and our turnovers have been kind of our Achilles' heel so far," Stephen Curry said. "Scoring the ball hasn't been a problem. It's just the other things we need to do to be a well-rounded team and the team we expect to be. (Against the Clippers), our defensive effort got us to where we wanted to be, and we kind of controlled the game from the start. We took care of the basketball -- we played Warriors basketball, and now we have to sustain it."

San Antonio just lost three straight games on the road to Orlando (87-114), Indiana (94-97) and Boston (94-108).  The Spurs are really struggling right now with all of their new faces due to the injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Joffrey Lauvergne.  All three will miss this game against tonight, and the Spurs just have no chance of even being competitive against the Warriors without them.

We saw that play out in the playoffs last year.  Leonard was injured in the 111-113 Game 1 loss to the Warriors.  They were promptly swept as he missed the rest of the series, losing by 36 in Game 2, by 12 in Game 3 and by 14 in Game 4.  I see no way this isn't a double-digit victory in the Warriors' favor tonight.

Golden State is 55-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  I like backing them a lot more in this role than the double-digit role they have been so far this season.  Roll with the Warriors Thursday.

20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers both prefer to play at a slow tempo.  The Mavericks rank 28th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game, while the Clippers are 17th at 100 possessions per game.

The Clippers were the top team in defensive efficiency before playing the Warriors last time out, losing 113-141.  That skewed all of their numbers.  The Clippers had had allowed an average of just 92.4 points per game and no team had shot better than 43% against them until the Warriors hung 141 points and shot 58.4%.

Now the Clippers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder defensively after that awful performance.  They'll be up against a Mavericks team that is struggling to find easy buckets.  The Mavs rank 23rd in offensive efficiency and are scoring just 98.2 points per game on the season, including 90.3 points per game on the road.  And now they may be missing rookie first-round pick Dennis Smith at point guard, who is questionable.

The Clippers are 48-26 UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 23-5 (82.1%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets are have faced a rough schedule in the early going with five of their first seven games at home.  After a 3-4 start, they'll be motivated to get it turned around.  They have an excellent chance to do just that as a six-game homestand starts with Wednesday's tilt against the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors are in the midst of a tough road trip of their own and it may start catching up to them sooner rather than later.  They have played four straight games out West against the Spurs, Warriors, Lakers and Blazers.  After winning their last two, they come into this game overvalued.

Denver is going to want revenge from two losses to the Raptors by a combined 5 points last season.  They lost 102-105 on the road, and 111-113 at home.  But the Nuggets covered the spread in both games and are now 27-13 ATS in their last 40 meetings with the Raptors.  Look for them to have their revenge at home tonight.

The Nuggets are 28-16 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot here Wednesday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 91-110 at home to the Thunder last night.  Now they have to travel to Charlotte and face an upstart Hornets team that has been playing better since getting healthy.

The Hornets were missing several key pieces early in the season, but they are healthy outside of Nic Batum now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games, beating the Nuggets by 17 and the Magic by 7 at home, while also upsetting the Grizzlies by 5 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

And you can bet the Hornets will be ready for this game.  They have had a day off to get ready for a rematch with the Bucks after losing to them 94-103 in Milwaukee on October 23rd just a week ago.  They let that game get away from them in the closing minutes as they actually led most the way.  Look for them to avenge that loss tonight.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Pistons/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Detroit Pistons have been grossly undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their first seven games to start the season.  I may be looking to back this team in the near future, but right now is not the time.

The Pistons are now overvalued here laying 4.5 points on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers.  They are getting a lot of love now thanks to back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  Off those two monster wins, this is now a massive letdown spot for the Pistons after beating the defending champs.

The Lakers have lost back-to-back games to the Raptors and Jazz and are not getting much love in the markets because of it.  But they have had two days off coming into this game, while the Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, giving the Lakers the advantage in rest and preparation as well.

Plays against favorites (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or fewer of their attempts over the last two seasons.  They are losing these games by a whopping 17.3 points per game on average.  Detroit is 3-13 ATS off two more more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +8

The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  They opened the season by going 3-0 ATS in their first three games with home wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and a road win at Minnesota.  That quick start has them overvalued.

The Jazz have come back down to reality since.  They have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 16 on the road to the Clippers, and by 9 on the road to the Suns.  They did beat the Lakers by 15 at home, but the Lakers were playing the second of a back-to-back.

Conversely, the Mavs are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start.  They weren't very competitive in their first four games, but their last three have been a different story.  They beat Memphis 103-94 at home, only lost 91-96 in Memphis as 5-point dogs, and only lost 110-112 at home to the 76ers.  Now they are catching 8 points against the Jazz in a game that is likely to go down to the wire.

Three of the last six meetings between Utah and Dallas have gone to overtime, which just shows you how close this series has been.  And the Mavs have only lost once by more than 5 points to the Jazz in their last seven meetings.

Dallas is 32-16 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  Utah is 0-9 ATS in home games after covering four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

It's amazing that two teams from different conferences will be meeting for a second time this early in the season.  But that's the scenario we have here as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Houston Rockets for a rematch.

The Rockets won the first meeting 105-104 as 3-point road favorites over the 76ers.  Eric Gordon hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Rockets the win.  You can bet the 76ers are going to want their revenge tonight as they'll be the more motivated team, which is why I like getting 6.5 points with them in the rematch.

This 76ers team is coming off three straight covers and is playing very well right now.  They won 87-76 in Detroit and 112-110 in Dallas before and after that game against Houston.  The Rockets have been overvalued quite a bit, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including an 89-103 loss in Memphis last time out.  Injuries have been a big problem for them as Chris Paul remains out, while Gordon is questionable today.

Mike D'Antoni is 5-15 ATS off two straight road games as the coach of Houston.  D'Antoni is 2-12 ATS in home games versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game as the coach of Houston.  The 76ers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents. 

Philadelphia is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.   Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Orlando Magic are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-1 start to the season.  They are coming off a home win over the short-handed San Antonio Spurs and are now in a massive letdown spot off that big win.

The Charlotte Hornets have dealt with injuries of their own, but they are starting to get healthy outside of Nic Batum.  And this is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They should be laying more than 3 points at home to the Magic here.

The Hornets simply own the Magic.  They have won seven straight meetings while going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The last three meetings in Charlotte have resulted in double-digit blowout victories by 40, 21 and 14 points.  Expect more of the same in their first meeting of 2017.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

15* Pistons/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Clippers are more of a defensive team now that they swapped out Chris Paul for Patrick Beverly.  Their offense doesn't run as efficiently because Beverly is not a scorer and they lost Jamaal Crawford, so this team is hanging hats on defense led by Beverly and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers currently rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 4 points less per game than 2nd-place Boston.  And the Clippers aren't playing with much tempo offensively, ranking 19th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game.

Detroit also prefers to play at a slower tempo ranking 17th in pace at 99.9 possessions per game.  And the Pistons also are a team that relies on defense more than offense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The head-to-head numbers also favor the UNDER.  The Pistons and Clippers have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - team who made 6 or more 3 point shots/game last season, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 46-15 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203

The Utah Jazz have been an UNDER machine this season, and we'll continue riding their unders here against the Los Angeles Lakers.  This total of 203 has clearly been inflated and I think there is still value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in all Jazz games this season.  The reason for that is the Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game.  The Jazz rank 8th in defensive efficiency but just 26th in offensive efficiency.  The loss of Gordon Hayward makes this team even more of a worse offensive unit than last year, and they are probably even better off defensively.

The Lakers have been held to 92 or fewer points at the end of regulation in three of their five games this season. They have played well defensively in their last two games, giving up 99 points to the Wizards in OT and 101 points to the Raptors.  And they played Toronto last night, meaning their be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.

The head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Lakers and Jazz have combined for 202 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 203.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They are a tired team right now, and making matters worse is that they are without two starters in Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, as well as key bench player Nene Hilario.

The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  One of those wins came 98-90 in Houston as 8-point dogs as well.

So this will be a revenge game for the Rockets, but I don't think the revenge factor outweighs the tough spot for the Rockets with the no rest and the injuries.  And the Grizzlies are only 1-point favorites here, so they only need to win the game to cover.

Plays on home favorites (MEMPHIS) - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season tonight.  They have opened 0-3 with two road losses to Oklahoma City and Boston, and a blown 20-point lead in a 107-111 home loss to the Detroit Pistons.

But the Knicks have had plenty of time to practice and get ready for this game against the Nets.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  And they are very healthy with only Jaokim Noah out right now.

The same cannot be said for the Nets, who are going to be playing without their two best guards in D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin.  The Nets have played five games already and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

This is a massive letdown spot for these young Nets, who are coming off an upset 112-107 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 8-point dogs.  The Nets have gone 3-0 at home, but they're 0-2 on the road with losses to the Pacers and Magic.  The Knicks are good enough to beat them here, especially given the spot advantages with the rest and letdown for Brooklyn.

The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in home games off a road loss to a division rival over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  New York is 15-3 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three years.  Brooklyn is 13-27 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last three years.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

The Houston Astros are way overvalued right now.  They lost 90-98 as 8-point home favorites against Memphis, and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the 76ers 105-104 as 3-point road favorites.  They failed to cover in both games, and they'll fail to do so again here on the road against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team that I expect to be a sleeper in the East.  They have gone 2-0 at home, beating the Hawks by 18 and the Nuggets by 17.  And they haven't even been fully healthy.  But they got two key pieces back from injury in Malik Monk and Michael Gidd-Gilchrist prior to the Nuggets game, and they will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Rockets are far from healthy, and they lost a lot of their depth when they traded for Chris Paul while losing Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly to the Clippers.  So far, so good for the 4-0 Clippers.  And now Paul is out for a few weeks with a knee injury.  Fellow starter Trevor Ariza is out with a foot injury, and they really miss him because he's their best defender and a great 3-point shooter.  And key bench player Nene Hilario is doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a road win by 3 points or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Houston is 9-20 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Hornets are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game.  Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.

I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter.  That just shows the lack of shooting on this team.  And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings?  He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more.  The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points.  I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season.  The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics don't have to wait long for their shot at revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They lost to the Bucks 108-100 at home on October 18th just a week ago.  But that was an awful spot for the Celtics as they were coming off a 99-102 loss to the Cavs the night before on opening night, and they were still reeling emotionally from the season-ending injury to Gordon Hayward.

Now the Celtics have had some time to get off the loss of Hayward and have really shown some nice fight in two games since.  They beat the 76ers 102-92 as 3-point road dogs next time out, then crushed New York 110-89 as 7-point home favorites on Tuesday.  The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they've had plenty of practice time to fine-tune things moving forward.

The Bucks are 3-1 this season but are overvalued because of it.  They barely beat the Blazers 113-110 at home, and needed a huge finish to the fourth quarter to pull away from the Hornets for a 103-94 victory.  They had lost to the Cavs 97-116 at home the game before, and I can't give them much credit for their win over the Celtics given the tough spot for Boston.

Home-court advantage hasn't meant much in this series.  The road team has won three of the last four meetings straight up.  And the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The underdog is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. 

Jason Kidd is 11-29 ATS in home games after winning two of their last three games as the coach of Milwaukee.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games off two consecutive wins against division opponents.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 196.5

This is one of my favorite situations to take an UNDER in the NBA.  This is the classic home-and-home situation.  Memphis played in Dallas last night, and now Dallas has to play in Memphis tonight.  Teams get familiar with one another in these situations, and points are harder to come by in the rematch as a result.

Last night the Grizzlies and Mavs combined for 197 points in a 103-94 Dallas victory.  Now we are getting a total of 196.5, and if my theory is correct, we'll easily cash the UNDER as this game is sure to be more low scoring than the first meeting.  And both teams shot well last night as the Mavs shot 48.6% and made 11 3-pointers, while the Grizzlies shot 45.8% and made 12 3-pointers.  Don't expect either to shoot that well again.

This head-to-head series has been very low scoring recently as it is.  The Mavs and Grizzlies have combined for 197 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  And they have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.  So we are getting that 9 points of value even before you factor in this perfect UNDER situation with the home-and-home.

Memphis is 16-6 to the UNDER in it home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7-2 in Mavericks last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Mavericks last 28 games following a straight up win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The Los Angeles Lakers didn't take too kindly to Marcin Gortat's tweet that John Wall 'will torture' Lonzo Ball tonight.  Look for them to be playing with a little more spirit than usual tonight when these two meet in L.A. on ESPN.

"Yeah, of course we did," Ingram said when asked if he saw Gortat's tweet on Monday. "Everyone has social media, definitely saw it. The competitor in Lonzo, of course he didn't take it so well and, with his teammates behind him, we didn't take it so well."

I think the Wizards are overvalued here due to their 3-0 start to the season.  But they could easily be 0-3 as their wins over the 76ers (by 5), Pistons (by 4) and Nuggets (by 5) all came by 5 points or less.  And that fact alone shows that we are getting some serious value with the Lakers as 7-point dogs.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns made the coaching change and send Eric Bledsoe home and promptly won their first game of the season.  It's like clockwork when a team makes a coaching change that they are going to play well in that first game.  And I look for the Suns to continue playing well tonight.

The Suns are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the season.  They are catching a whopping 7 points at home tonight against the Utah Jazz.  You look at the lines for their previous three home games and you can see how we're getting value here.  They were 2.5-point dogs to the Blazers, 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers, and 2-point dogs to the Kings.

Conversely, the Jazz are overvalued due to their 3-1 ATS start this season.  But the Jazz are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an 84-102 loss in Los Angeles last night.  They used a lot of energy cutting the deficit to single-digits in the fourth quarter last night, but ran out of gas in the final few minutes.  They won't have a whole lot left in the tank here to put away the Suns by more than 7 points.

All three meetings between Utah and Phoenix were decided by 7 points or less last season.  The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Jazz are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation in the NBA.  We'll sell high on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-0 on the season, and buy low on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 0-4 on the season and still in search of their first victory.

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for that first win tonight.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a massive letdown spot off back-to-back upset victories over the Warriors and Rockets.  They won't show up tonight.

"We've got to scratch and claw our way out of this," head coach Rick Carlisle said. "There's no other way. Our disposition has to pick up. We have to be totally together. We're missing a couple guys, but we have enough to win with what we have. Everybody's got to dig deep."

The Mavericks have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Grizzlies.  Plays against favorites (MEMPHIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

The Utah Jazz are going to remain a great UNDER bet until oddsmakers catch up with them.  They are 2-0-1 to the UNDER htis season, averaging just 99.7 points per game on offense and giving up 94.3 points per game on defense.

The reasons the Jazz are such a good UNDER bet this year is because they lost their best scorer in Gordon Hayward, and they're still built around defense, but even more so this year.  This is a team that consistently ranks toward the bottom of the league in pace and toward the top of the league in defensive efficiency.

That has been the case again this season.  The Jazz rank dead last in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.  But they are 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Clippers are now built to play a similar style to the Jazz, swapping out elite point guard Chris Paul for the defense-first minded Patrick Beverly.  It's no surprise that they are leading the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.6 points per 100 possessions despite playing two up-tempo teams in the Suns and Lakers.

And the head-to-head series really favors the UNDER tonight.  The Jazz are clippers have combined for 195 or fewer points in five of their last seven meetings.  And like I said, they were two teams that were much better offensively prior to this season. 

The Clippers are 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 12-3 to the UNDER when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers get to play their first home game tonight after an impressive three-game road trip to open the season.  They won 124-76 in Phoenix, 114-96 in Indiana and lost 110-113 at Milwaukee.

They will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd here tonight as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  Fans are excited about this team that made a huge run in the second half last year to make the playoffs after trading for Jusuf Nurkic.

The Pelicans have opened 1-2 with a 91-103 loss in Memphis, a 120-128 home loss to Golden State and a 119-112 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This team is so limited in the shooting department as DeMarcus Cousins in their best 3-point shooter.  They are fade material because of their lack of shooting, and the big names on the roster have them consistently overvalued.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Blazers have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Pelicans.  And they only have to cover 4.5 points here, which is too low.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Wizards NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their roster is absolutely loaded and they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  And they got better in the offseason by swapping defensive liability Danilo Gallinari out for veteran Paul Millsap and his elite defending and scoring skills.

The Nuggets blew a double-digit lead and lost in Utah in their opener.  But they bounced back with a 96-79 home win over the Kings in their home opener.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be ready for the Wizards.

The Wizards have been extremely shaky despite playing two home games against two sub-par Eastern Conference teams.  They only won 120-115 over the 76ers as 6.5-point favorites, and also failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Pistons in a 115-111 win.  They have a good starting lineup, but their bench is one of the worst in the NBA, and now they'll be without two key pieces in Markieff Morris and Jason Smith tonight.

The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have played a brutal schedule in the early going and have gotten through it at 2-1.  They won in Boston, lost at home to Cleveland, and beat Portland at home.  Now they finally get a bit of a break here against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team I think will be good when healthy, but that's not the case right now.  They are missing two starters in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and they are missing two of their first players off the bench in Malik Monk and Cody Zeller.

The Hornets lost 90-102 in their only road game in Detroit.  Then they had to erase a halftime deficit with a huge second half to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks at home.  The Hawks may be the worst team in the NBA this season. This is a big step up in class for the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Central division opponents.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 231

Oddsmakers have over-adjusted here due to three straight overs cashing in the NBA Finals.  We saw a 221-point total for Game 2, and now we're seeing a 231-point total for Game 5.  This 10-point adjustment means that there is clearly value on the UNDER.

And there are more reasons to like the UNDER for Game 5.  As a series goes on, teams become more and more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here.  I think after the Cavs won Game 4 to extend this series, there will be a tightness about this game for both squads.

And I think that favors the UNDER as both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively, while the Warriors will be tight on offense trying to win a championship, and the Cavs as well trying to avoid elimination.  Neither team will be playing and shooting as freely as they have up to this point in the series.

Cleveland is 18-4 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 8-1 to the UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors just took the life out of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  They came back from a 6-point deficit in the final three minutes, outscoring the Warriors 11-0 to close the game and win 118-113.

The Cavs thought they had the game won and couldn't close, and now their state of mind is that they're beaten.  I expect the Cavs to come out and try in the first half, but once the Warriors get ahead, I think they will quit fighting and just except their fate.

Conversely, the Warriors will be more motivated than ever to win this game.  They can be the first team in NBA history to go 16-0 in the playoffs.  And what sweet revenge that would be to sweep the Cavs a year after blowing a 3-1 deficit to them.  Simply put, the Warriors are going to want this game more.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a home loss this season.  Golden State is 7-0 ATS in all playoff road games this season.  The Warriors are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The Cavs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 227

The last game between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers was an aberration.  Cleveland tried to push the tempo, and it didn't work.  As a result, they lost 113-132 to the Warriors for 245 combined points.  Look for the Cavs to slow it down at home n Game 3, which is their best shot to beat the Warriors.

Before last game, the UNDER was 7-2-1 in the previous 10 meetings.  The Cavs and Warriors had combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games.  They had averaged 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 227.

The Warriors have been much less efficient in the fast break on the road this season.  They are scoring 7 fewer fast break points per game on the road this season than they are at home.  They won't get nearly as many easy looks in Cleveland as they have in these first two games.

Golden State's defense continues to be superb.  It has held the Cavs to just 97.4 points per 100 possessions through two games.  The Cavs came into the NBA Finals averaging 120 points per 100 possessions thus far in the playoffs.  The Warriors have allowed just 98.8 points per 100 possessions through the playoffs to this point.

Cleveland is 18-3 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER would be 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series with a total set of 218 or higher, and this total is 227.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Warriors UNDER 221

Oddsmakers continue to set the totals too high when the Warriors and Cavs get together.  They adjusted down to 221 for Game 2, but it's simply not low enough.  These teams know each other all too well after playing in three straight NBA Finals, and that familiarity makes points harder to come by.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season.  The Cavs and Warriors have combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games, which is a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 221.  They have averaged just 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 17 points less than this total.

The Warriors are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  They held the Cavs to just 34.9% shooting in Game 1 and won't let off the gas here in Game 2.  The Cavs have stepped up their defense in the playoffs and actually played well on that end in Game 1, limiting the Warriors to 42.5% shooting.

Cleveland is 9-1 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavs are 10-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning percentage above 70% over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or better over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have waited basically a full calendar year for their shot at revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and lost a tight Game 7 at the wire.  They will get their revenge in this series, starting with Game 1 Thursday night.

The Warriors have upgraded their team since last season, adding a Top 5 player in Kevin Durant, making them virtually unstoppable.  They now have four All-Stars against Cleveland's three in James, Love and Irving.  And the Warriors still have good depth with Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingtston, David West and Patrick McCaw all playing significant minutes.

The difference in this series is defense.  The Warriors ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Cavs ranked 22nd.  And the Warriors have 'Lebron stoppers' in Green and Iguodala, plus Thompson and Durant can hold their own against James when asked to.  No team is better equipped to stop Lebron than Golden State is.

Golden State is now 27-1 SU in its last 28 games, and 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Warriors have won nine straight games by double-digits in these players.  The Cavs come from the weak East, and even benefited from injuries the past two series to the opposing team's best players in Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.  They will get exposed in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics have voiced their frustration through the media about how disappointed they were in letting down their home fans in the first two games of this series.  They want to make amends and give a big effort tonight in Game 5 and go out swinging.

And the Celtics have given the Cavs trouble the past two games without Isaiah Thomas.  They have opened up their offense with a lot more passing, and it has worked.  They won Game 3 and actually held a double-digit lead at halftime of Game 4 before the Cavs pulled away in the second half for a 112-99 victory.  They only lost by 13 on the road despite the Cavs shooting 59.5% from the field for the game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston +15.5

The oddsmakers made a huge adjustment after the Celtics lost the first two games of this series by double-digits.  They were 17-point dogs in Game 3 and won outright.  Now they're still 15-point dogs in Game 4, and it's still too big of an adjustment.  The Celtics will stay within the number and give the Cavs another run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers even shot 14-of-22 from 3-point range in the first half and STILL didn't beat the Celtics.  It's unlikely that they shoot as well as they did again in Game 4, which bodes well for the Celtics covering this 15-point spread.

And the Celtics actually moved the ball perhaps better than any game they had all season, which got everyone involved without Isaiah Thomas.  They had six players score at least 10 points, and sharing the basketball will be the focal point heading into Game 4 as well.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in road games against Central division opponents this season.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 218

The over is 3-0 in the first three games of this series between the Warriors and Spurs.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their highest total of the series in Game 4.  This total has been set at 218 after totals of 211.5, 209.5 and 215 in the first three games of the series.  There is clearly value on the UNDER in Game 4.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 191.3 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 218.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston +17

The oddsmakers have been forced to set a ridiculous number in Game 3 because they know the betting public will want to continue backing the Cavs at any price.  After all, the Cavs are 10-0 in the playoffs and have gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the public isn't going to stop backing them.

But this is simply too big of an adjustment.  The Cavaliers aren't 17 points better than the Celtics at home, even with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs.  These players had Thomas' back when he lost his sister, and now they'll rally for him and give a big effort in Game 3.

The Celtics were embarrassed by 44 points in Game 2.  This is a prideful team that won't want to go out like that.  They aren't going to quit, and in fact I think it will be the Cavaliers that relax a bit in Game 3.  They know they don't have to deal with Thomas so they won't be as focused, especially off their 44-point victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Celtics are 14-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons.  The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

The first two games in this series have gone over the total with ease.  Now the betting public is all over the over in Game 3, but I see it playing out much differently.  With their season basically on the line tonight, the Spurs will fight, and that will come out more on the defensive end than anything.

And the Spurs are going to be without leading scorer Kawhi Leonard again for Game 3.  They only managed 100 points on 37% shooting without him in Game 2.  The Warriors couldn't miss, shooting 56.2% for the game with 18 made 3-pointers. That is unlikely to happen again as well.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  In fact, the Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those nine games, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

This is the series for the Boston Celtics.  They can't lose both home games to open the series if they want any chance of giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.  I expect a big effort from the Celtics here with their back against the wall after losing Game 1.

The Celtics came out sluggish in Game 1 and fell behind by double-digits right away and could never recover.  I guess you could see that coming after just winning a Game 7 against the Wizards a couple days earlier.  They were probably still fatigued too.

But they weren't aggressive at all, time and time against settling for 3-pointers instead of attacking the basket.  They went 12-of-38 (31.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Look for Isaiah Thomas and company to be in attack mode from the opening tip.

Boston is 15-3 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Cavs are 4-14 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I think the long layoff for the Cavs is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.  They haven't played since May 7th and will be rusty.  We saw the Warriors get blitzed by the Spurs in the first half of Game 1 after their long layoff.  I think the same thing happens here.

The Boston Celtics are far from tired despite playing a 7-game series.  Rest isn't an issue in the playoffs.  And the Celtics have only played four games in the past 10 days, which would be a great situation to back a team during the regular season.

One thing that really stands out to me and points out the line value in Game 1 is the regular season lines between these teams.  Boston was a 4-point favorite and a 1.5-point favorite in its two home meetings with Cleveland.  Now it is a +5 underdog in Game 1, which is a 9-point difference from their final regular season meeting of 2017 on April 5th.

Cleveland is 3-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 32-17 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

The Warriors got way behind early against the Spurs in Game 1 and were playing at a frantic pace to try to get back in it the rest of the way.  That led to a high-scoring 113-111 final in the Warriors' favor.  I think Game 2 will be played much differently with the Warriors getting off to a much better start.

The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 meetings.  They have averaged just 202.8 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, showing that there's still a ton of value on the UNDER 210 here.  And leading scorer Kawhi Leonard is out now for the Spurs after getting injured in Game 1.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 53-16 (76.8%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-6 (80%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

The Boston Celtics let one get away in Game 6, but credit to John Wall for hitting a clutch 3-pointer right before the buzzer.  And it kept the trend of the home team winning every game in this series this season alive.

In fact, the home team is now 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.  The home team has won nine of those 10 meetings by 8 points or more as they have basically all been blowouts outside of Game 6.

The Celtics' home domination of the Wizards has been mighty impressive.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning all eight by 8 points or more.  Boston has outscored Washington by a total of 136 points in those eight games, or by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Monday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 212

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

I think the Spurs could be fatigued here after a hard-fought seres with the Rockets, plus with the fact that they are without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard is very banged up and didn't play in Game 6.  And the Warriors will be rusty having last played on May 8th, both factors that should help contribute to the UNDER cashing.

The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 200.4 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than Game 1's posted total of 212, providing plenty of value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more are 45-13 (77.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I know the home team has absolutely dominated this series this season, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in nine meetings.  However, I'm going against the grain here as I firmly believe the Boston Celtics close out the Wizards tonight, and we'll take the 5 points for some added insurance.

The Celtics made a big statement in Game 5 with their 123-101 victory.  The Wizards have to be a bit deflated after that defeat, and now all the pressure is on them to try and keep their season alive.  These players haven't been in this situation very often and I question how well they'll handle it.  The Celtics' players will be playing loose and free.

Boston is 15-6 ATS in road games after a game where it covered the spread this season.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Wizards are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Boston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 No-Brainer on Houston -6.5

The Houston Rockets are the better team in this series.  They have outscored the Spurs despite being down 3-2 in this series.  They won their two games by 27 and 21 points.  I think we see a similar blowout tonight with their backs against the wall at home in Game 6.

The Spurs lost Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason a few games back, and now their best player in Kawhi Leonard is nursing knee and ankle injuries.  He got hurt in Game 5 and didn't return for the final five minutes of regulation or overtime.  The Spurs were fortunate to pull it out, but they have no chance of being competitive in Game 6 without him at near 100%.

The Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 19-10 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics probably relaxed a bit too much following their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in these playoffs that extended back to Game 3 of the Bulls' series.  They were blown out in their two games at Washington in Games 3 and 4.

But now they return home focused and determined to take back control of this series.  And I think we are getting the Celtics at a cheaper price than we should be here simply because they were blown out in both games in Washington.

Home-court advantage has been bigger in this series than any other in the playoffs.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Celtics are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Wizards, winning all seven by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 14.8 points per game in this spot.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Houston +5.5

I still think the Houston Rockets are the better team in this series, so I'm likely to back them the rest of the way, just as I did in Game 4.  And the numbers have shown that they've been the better team.

The Rockets can score at will.  They have put up 125 and 126 points in their two victories in this series, and the Spurs are a great defensive team.  They have outscored the Spurs by 12 points in four games thus far.

The main theme for me is that the Spurs are too much of a one-man show with Kawhi Leonard, while the Rockets have a number of different players that can beat you outside of James Harden.  The Rockets simply have too many weapons for the Spurs.

Houston is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Utah +9

The Utah Jazz aren't the type of team that is just going to pack it in when trailing 0-3 in the series.  They are a prideful team that wants to put an end to a 9-game losing streak in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  And even if they don't win tonight, they can still easily cover as 9-point dogs.

The Jazz have at least been competitive in all three games, losing by 12, 11 and 11 points.  And they held a lead late against the Warriors before falling apart in the final few minutes to lose by 11 in Game 3.  Plus Steph Curry and Kevin Durant couldn't miss with Durant even banking in a 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock late.

Utah is 39-16 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% record or better) playing a team with a winning record are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Jazz in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Houston -5.5

The Houston Rockets have lost the last two games of this series after winning Game 1 by 27 points.  It appears they have relaxed these last two games, but now they'll be going full throttle at home tonight to try and even this series at 2-2.

Houston scored 126 points in Game 1.  But it has let San Antonio dictate the tempo these past two games, being held to just 96 and 92 points, respectively.  Look for the Rockets to get back to pushing the tempo.  They're not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 either when they shot 36.4%.

Houston is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite this season.  The Spurs are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - double revenge - two straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Utah +6.5

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-14 at home this season.  They were at least competitive in their two games at Golden State, covering the spread in both games.  Now they are catching 6.5 points at home in Game 3 with the series basically on the line.  I look for a big effort from them here.

The Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home over the past few years.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City, not once losing by more than 7 points.  And the only non-cover came in overtime in a 96-103 loss as 4.5-point dogs last season.

Plays against favorites (Golden State) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.

The Jazz are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Spurs/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -4

The Houston Rockets relaxed in Game 2 after throttling the Spurs 126-99 in Game 1.  They actually kept it close for three quarters before getting blown out in the 4th by the Spurs in Game 2.  The Spurs simply wanted that game more, but that won't be the case tonight as the series heads to Houston for Game 3.

I truly believe that the Rockets are the better team in this series and will win it when it's all said and done.  And Game 3 tonight is their chance to prove that they are the better team.  The Rockets have gone 33-11 at home this season and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd.

James Harden will be motivated to redeem himself following a 3-for-17 shooting performance in Game 2.  And the problem remains for the Spurs that Kawhi Leonard has to do too much for them.  Now his task is even taller with starting PG Tony Parker out for the season with a torn quad muscle suffered in Game 2.  Leonard will have to handle the ball even more on offense for them, while also being tasked with guarding Harden on the other end.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.  Houston is 18-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Take the Rockets in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors +2

This same thing happened last year before the Raptors got back in the series in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs.  They were blown out in their first two games last year in Cleveland, but then rebounded to win Games 3 and 4 at home.  I think they'll repeat that feat again this year.

Home-court advantage has been huge the last two years in the playoffs in this series.  The home team is now 7-1 SU in the last eight playoff games between these teams  The only exception was a Cavs' win in Toronto in Game 6 last year to close out the series.  The Raptors are 30-14 at home this year, while the Cavs are a very vulnerable 22-21 on the road.

I think Cleveland is going to relax in Game 3 tonight.  The Cavaliers have won six straight games to open this postseason just as they did last year.  It's only human nature to relax when things have been going this well for them.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are going to want this game more, and that's going to show on the court and on the scoreboard.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Washington -5.5

I've been riding the Boston Celtics with a ton of success during their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in their last six games overall.  However, I'm going to switch gears here and take the Washington Wizards in Game 3.

This is do-or-die for the Wizards tonight.  It's a must-win game as they trail 2-0 after blowing Game 2 and eventually losing in overtime.  I look for them to respond in a big way at home tonight and to win by a comfortable margin.

The Wizards have had one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 33-11 at home while scoring 110.3 points per game and shooting 48.1% from the field.  They are much more comfortable here in DC, and I look for John Wall to have a monster game to lead the way.

Boston is 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.  The Celtics are 3-15 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

We were on the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of this series in a 126-99 victory.  They dominated from start to finish and led by 30 points at halftime.  The Spurs will give a better effort in Game 2, but the fact of the matter remains that the Rockets are the better team.

Getting 5.5 points in Game 2 is a real nice value when you look at the season series.  The Spurs have won three of five meetings, but they haven't won by more than 6 points, and three games have been decided by exactly 2 points.  The Rockets have been the better team in the season series.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Houston is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -5

The Boston Celtics have been on a roll ever since Isaiah Thomas returned from his first trip to Washington to see his family.  His mind has been more set at ease, and the Celtics' players have rallied around him during their impressive 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS streak coming in to Game 2.

The Celtics have been much more efficient offensively as they have scored at least 104 points in five straight games.  But perhaps the biggest difference has been defense as they've allowed 97 or fewer points in four of their last five.  This is a locomotive right now that you do not want to step in front of.

The Wizards were shelled for 123 points on 51.1% shooting by the Celtics in Game 1.  Not having Ian Mahinmi really hurts their defense, and now forward Markieff Morris has an ankle injury that he suffered in Game 1.  The Celtics really pulled away once Morris went out with that injury.

The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +6

The Houston Rockets put the Oklahoma City Thunder away in five games and now have had extra rest heading into this series with the San Antonio Spurs.  They haven't played since April 25th and will be ready to go in this series, one that I think they win against a vulnerable Spurs squad.

Getting 6 points in Game 1 is a real nice value when you look at the regular season series.  Yes, the Spurs won three of four meetings, but all four games were decided by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 2 points.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year.  The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 1 Monday.

20* Jazz/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The road team has actually won four of the six games in this series.  That is unheard of in a playoff series, and I don't expect that trend to continue in this do-or-die Game 7.  I think that trend has offered us some tremendous line value on the Clippers here laying only 3.5 points.

The Clippers still have the best player in the series in Chris Paul, who has just been a monster in the fourth quarter all series and who I trust more than anyone to get the job done.  And the healthy return of Austin Rivers has been huge as well.  His defense on Gordon Hayward has been great, but he also scored 13 points and hit three 3-pointers in Game 6.

Utah is 17-31 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Rudy Gobert suffered an ankle injury in the second half of Game 6 and wasn't the same player down the stretch.  I have a hard time believing it will be heeled in time for Game 7, which could be a huge factor in the outcome.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Clippers are tired of early exits in the playoffs.  With Chris Paul healthy, they still have a shot to win this series, and I think they go on the road and get another huge win in Utah like Game 3.  Getting the 6 points here is just an added bonus.

Each of the last three games really could have gone either way.  All three were basically toss-up games in the final minutes, and the Jazz managed to win two of the three thanks to some late-game heroics from Joe Johnson.  I certainly do not believe he can keep up his level of play.

The fact of the matter is that the role players are due for the Clippers.  Both JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford have been off the entire series, but they are too good of shooters to stay cold forever.  And Doc Rivers has more options now to go small and match the Jazz with Austin Rivers healthy.  That small ball lineup got them back into the game in Game 5.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in home games after covering four of its last five against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are still 19-5 SU in their last 24 meetings with the Jazz.  Look for an inspired effort from them tonight as they try and send this series back to Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 6 No-Brainer on Atlanta -3

The home team has won all five meetings in this series, and I think that holds true again here in Game 6.  I would argue that the Hawks have been the better team in this series thus far and should be favored by more at home here.

Atlanta won its two home games by a combined 28 points, while Washington won its three home games by a combined 19 points.  So, the Hawks have actually outscored the Wizards by a combined 9 points in this series thus far despite playing three of five games on the road.

Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience to rely on over the past few years in this do-or-die situation.  Meanwhile, John Wall and the Wizards basically have zero experience in close-out games, which are the toughest to win.

The Hawks are a perfect 9-0 ATS after two consecutive division games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 10-24 ATS in road games versus teams who average 23 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet the Hawks in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The home team has won every meeting in this series dating back to the regular season, which is nine straight games.  I was on the Grizzlies in Game 3 and 4 at home, but I have a better feeling today that the Spurs are going to close it out tonight.

The Spurs have clearly been the better team in this series, winning all three home meetings by 13 points or more.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by 43 points in this series, an average of 8.6 points per game.  The Grizzlies were fortunate to win in overtime in Game 4, and I think their luck runs out tonight.

Expect Greg Popovich to challenge his team here to get a road win knowing that they are going to need them down the road if they want to reach their ultimate goal.  And the Rockets are sitting at home waiting on them, so the Spurs don't want this to go to a Game 7 and give the Rockets and even bigger advantage.  They'll be 'all in' tonight to finish the job.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston -7.5

The Boston Celtics have really played up to their potential in the past two games.  They were out of it after Isaiah Thomas lost his sister, but after he went home to be with his family following two home losses to Chicago, he and the Celtics have come back a completely different team.

They dominated from start to finish in a 104-87 win in Game 3 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Then they jumped out to a big lead early, lost it, and then pulled away in the 4th quarter of a 104-95 win as 1.5-point road favorites in Game 4.

A key in this turnaround has been the loss of Rajon Rondo as the Bulls have been helpless on offense without him.  And while there is talk of Rondo possibly returning tonight, he won't be effective at all considering he has a broken thumb on his shooting hand.  It would do the Bulls more harm than good to have him in there.

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Boston tonight, and I think these players are going to be extra motivated to put on a great performance after disappointing their fans in the first two home games.  There's nothing the Bulls can do to halt their momentum right now.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers did not play up to their standards defensively in Utah, giving up 52.2% shooting and 106 points in Game 3, and 54.1% and 105 points in Game 4.  They still managed to split 1-1 and easily could have won both.  Look for them to be much better on defense when they return home for a huge Game 5 Tuesday night.

The Jazz are in trouble right now because they are relying too much on the likes of Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles to make plays for them.  Johnson, Ingles and Rodney Hood caught fire late in Game 4 to erase an 8-point deficit in the 4th and win, but that's unlikely to happen again in Utah.

Rudy Gobert isn't 100%, and Gordon Hayward missed most of Game 4 due to food poisoning.  It's uncertain if Hayward will be back for Game 5, and even if he is he certainly won't be feeling anywhere near 100%.

The Clippers have had a huge home-court advantage all season, going 30-13 straight up.  They basically just have to win this game to cover the 3-point spread.  And they still own the Jazz, going 19-4 in their last 23 meetings.  I trust in veteran Chris Paul to lead this team to victory even without Blake Griffin as Paul is by far their most important player.

Utah is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 157-99 (61.3%) ATS since 1996.   The Jazz are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta -2

I would argue that the Atlanta Hawks have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They were in both games in Washington in losses by 7 and 8 points before fading late.  Then they blew out the Wizards by 18 in Game 3, and now they actually are +3 in point differential in the series.

What I like about the Hawks is how aggressive they have been in getting to the basket.  They shot 39 free throws in Game 1, 38 in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3.  The Wizards haven't been able to keep Dennis Shroeder out of the paint as he's averaging 25 points in this series.  I also like how Schroeder picked Wall up defensively full court in Game 3, making it more difficult for the Wizards to get into their offense.

"I watched video," Schroder said. "The first two games it was too easy to just bring it up half-court and have all these passes. I told Coach I want to be in his stuff. I want to take him full court. That's what I did (Saturday), and it worked well."

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Clippers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT On Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz let the Los Angeles Clippers off the hook in Game 3.  The blew an 8-point lead late as Chris Paul simply took over down the stretch.  The Clippers rallied around each other after losing Blake Griffin to an injury, and they came through with a huge win.

But now it's the Jazz turn to get a big win here and get right back in this series.  They can't afford to go back to Los Angeles down 3-1.  I look for a big effort from them here behind a raucous home crowd.  The Jazz are 29-13 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the Clippers aren't going anywhere now that Griffin is out for the rest of the postseason.  The Clippers just haven't been the same without him in the past, and they really can't afford to lose him, Paul or DeAndre Jordan.  The loss of Griffin for the Clippers is bigger than the loss of Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.

Utah is 37-16 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bulls Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were distracted with the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister in the first two games.  But he went home after Game 2 and spent time with his family to grieve.  In Game 3, players rallied around him and got back to focusing on basketball, and the end result was a dominant 104-87 win.

The Celtics also got a motivational speech from Kevin Garnett, the former Boston great.  Every player to a man said it was the difference, and I believe them.  But with the Celtics still having their backs against the wall, this Game 4 remains a must-win, and I think we see another big effort from them.

Boston got a break when Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2.  Now he's out indefinitely, and he was nearly averaging a triple-double in the first two games.  The Bulls simply don't have a good backup point guard, so Rondo's absence is huge for them.  It puts more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to handle the ball, but they are much better playing off the ball and letting Rondo run the show.

The Bulls are just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff home games, including three straight losses.  I just don't think their home-court advantage is enough for them to overcome the loss of Rondo.  The Celtics are the far superior team in this matchup and that will be shown again in Game 4.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks were competitive in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, losing by 7 and 8 points.  They did not finish either game well as they had a chance to win down the stretch.  But now with their backs against the wall, I expect their best effort of the series as the head home for Game 3.

Adding to the Hawks' motivation is the fact that they have now lost five straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to the regular season.  It's safe to say that they are going to want this game more, and I expect them to get it in front of their home fans tonight.

Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after two straight games where it committed 7 or fewer turnovers than its opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Clippers seemed to relax when Rudy Gobert went out with an injury in Game 1.  They lost that game on a buzzer-beater by Joe Johnson, but they came back focused in Game 2 and got the job done in a 99-91 victory.

Now Gobert remains out for the Jazz tonight, and it's a huge loss for them.  Look for the Clippers to seize the opportunity and take Game 3 to regain home-court advantage.  They are clearly the more talented team and still own the Jazz, going 19-3 SU in their last 22 meetings.

Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have all put up huge numbers through the first two games.  But the role players have really struggled, and they won't continue to.  Jamal Crawford is shooting a paltry 29.2% and is 0-for-9 from 3-point range.  J.J. Redick is averaging just 5.5 points and shooting 20% from 3-point range in this series.  Look for these two to be much more efficient moving forward.

Plays against underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 55-17 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Clippers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

It is gut check time for the Boston Celtics in Game 3 tonight.  The Celtics inexplicably lost the first two games in this series at home, and now they know that their season is on the line tonight.  It's basically win or go home here.

The death of Isaiah Thomas' sister was a huge distraction in the first two games as the Celtics were clearly out of it.  But Thomas went home to his family after Game 2 to deal with it.  Now he'll come back with a clearer mind in Game 3, and I think the players will rally around him in one of their best efforts of the season.

The Celtics got a big break when it was announced that Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2 and is now out indefinitely.  There will be a huge void at the PG position for the Bulls now because Rondo was playing very well, averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Bulls are 10-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  Boston is 41-27 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are the worst road team in the playoffs.  However, they managed to take the Cavs down to the wire on the road in each of the first two games of this series, losing by 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Now they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win in Game 3 and get back in this series.

And they should do just that now that they are returning to Indiana, where they are one of the best home teams in the playoffs.  The Pacers have gone 29-12 at home this season.  They have now gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Cavaliers actually had a losing record on the road this season.  They went 20-21 SU & 17-24 ATS on the road this year.  The Pacers have gone 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana.

Indiana is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Cavaliers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1.  They only managed 87 points and shot just 37% from the field.  Expect them to come back with a much better effort in Game 2 and to stay within the number as they try and steal this one.

"Looking at video, it was definitely down to positioning and getting those reads on when to go," Thunder center Steven Adams said. "You can't be premature about it, otherwise they do what they do. We cleared it up a lot more, bigs and guards. We've got to make sure we come out more aggressive, aggressive and physicality. Forcing them to do stuff rather than letting them do stuff."

Three of the four meetings during the regular season went right down to the wire and were decided by 3 points or less.  I expect this one to hold true to form and to go down to the last few possessions, so getting the Thunder are +8 is a huge value here.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

After Rudy Gobert went out with an injury on the first possession of Game 1, the Clippers appeared to relax and think that they would win the game by just showing up.  That wasn't the case as the Jazz rallied around Gobert and stole Game 1.

I think that with that wake-up call, the Clippers will put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  Gobert remains out for Game 2, meaning that the Clippers will have a massive advantage inside.  Look for monster games from Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in this one as Los Angeles evens this series in blowout fashion.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last several years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 18-3 in their last 21 meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Clippers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -7

After losing Game 1 to the Bulls, I fully expect the Boston Celtics to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game going away similar to their 100-80 home win over the Bulls in their final regular season meeting.

The Isaiah Thomas news with his sister passing away really was a down for this team.  Now that they've had a few extra days to cope with it, I think they'll come back more focused tonight and get back to playing their brand of basketball.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 9-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 16-30 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers know they can play with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They took them to double-OT in Cleveland in their final meeting of the regular season on April 2nd, and then they had a chance to win it at the buzzer in a 108-109 loss in Game 1 Saturday.

The Pacers had to win each of their final five regular season games just to make the playoffs.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs here in Game 2.

The Cavaliers actually have a losing record since the All-Star Break.  The betting public just thinks that they can turn it on the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be the case.  We'll make some good money fading them throughout the postseason.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinal Games.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Cleveland is 18-38-1 ATS in its last 57 vs. division opponents, while Indiana is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 vs. division foes.  The Pacers are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

Russell Westbrook got some much-needed rest over the final week of the regular season and will be ready to go in the playoffs.  That's important because the Thunder get outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and outscore their opponents by 3 points per 100 when he is on the floor.

Westbrook only averages 34 minutes per game in the regular season.  That will be closer to 40 minutes in the postseason as Billy Donovan knows he needs Westbrook on the floor as much as possible.  That adjustment will make the Thunder a much better team throughout the course of a 48-minute game.

Yes, Houston won three of four meetings with OKC this season, but three of them were decided by 3 points or less.  I have a good feeling this game is going to go right down to the wire.  The Rockets come in playing their worst ball of the season, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  I don't think they can just flip on the switch, either.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Jazz/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are the second-best team in the Western Conference when healthy in my opinion.  They battled through injuries to several key players this season, including Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but now they are full healthy entering the playoffs.

And as they've chased down the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, they've played their best basketball of the season now healthy.  Indeed, the Clippers are 7-0 in their last seven games overall, including five straight double-digit victories.  They needed all seven wins to fend off the Jazz for the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.  However, not many of the key players on the Jazz like Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have playoff experience, so they will be at a disadvantage in that respect.

The Clippers simply own the Jazz, going 18-2 SU in the last 20 meetings.  They won three of four meetings this season all by 13 points or more.  Utah is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* Pacers/Cavs 2017 NBA Playoffs Opener on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs.  They needed to win their final five games of the season just to get into the playoffs, and that's precisely what they did.  In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all five of their wins coming by 9 points or more.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone in the opposite direction.  Needing to win just two of their final four games to get the No. 1 seed in the East, they instead went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in those four contests.  They gave up at least 114 points in three of the four losses, and defense has been a problem with this team all season.

The Pacers were very competitive with the Cavaliers in the regular season.  They did go just 1-3 SU, but two of their losses came by single-digits, including the latest in double-overtime in Cleveland in a 130-135 loss on April 2nd.  They believe they can play with the Cavs, which is half the battle.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in road games when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +5

The Denver Nuggets could have easily packed it in after getting eliminated from the playoffs with two games to go.  Instead, they went out and handled their business last night, dismantling the Mavericks 109-91 on the road.  Now they have a chance to get to 40 wins in their final game of the season, and I think they'll be the more motivated team here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  Russell Westbrook rested in their last game, and he's unlikely to play many minutes tonight.  The Thunder are way more concerned about staying healthy and fresh for the playoffs than winning this game tonight.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, and I think that benefits the Nuggets more because they are the deeper team.  This situation will only force the Thunder to get as much rest as possible for their key players.

Denver is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves just completed a brutal four-game road trip with trips to the Warriors, Blazers, Jazz and Lakers.  They were competitive the entire trip and clearly have not quit.  Now they return home to play their final home game of the season and will want to go out a winner in front of their fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the West.  Russell Westbrook just got his record-setting 42nd triple double last time out, so they don't need to focus on that either.  Don't be surprised one bit if Billy Donovan decided to rest his starters these final two games.

The line move in this game suggests that he will rest his starters, or at least limit their minutes.  The Timberwolves opened as -1 favorites and have already been bet up to -4, and I see it going much higher before the game starts.  It would be foolish of the Thunder to go all out in this game.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with OKC.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Monday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Clippers are tied with the Utah Jazz at 49-31.  These teams will play in the first round of the playoffs, but home-court advantage is still at stake.  The Clippers own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny here.

And the Clippers have certainly been fighting to make sure they get home court in the first round.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 6 points, and four of those by 9 points or more.  They are hitting on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

The Rockets have pretty much been locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West for a while now.  As a result, their play has suffered as they are just 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This game means absolutely nothing to them, and they could rest players since they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  This will be just the 3rd game in 9 days for the Clippers.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets -4

The Denver Nuggets need a win Sunday or they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have played well under this pressure down the stretch, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of them on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  That showed in their effort last time out as they lost 99-120 as 9-point road favorites at Phoenix, failing to cover the spread by 30 points.

Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who score at least 106 points per game in the second half of hte season this season.  The Nuggets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.  They trail the Utah Jazz by just one game for that spot, which would give them home-court advantage in that upcoming series.  The Jazz have a tough game in Portland tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have nothing to play for right now.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  As a result, there's no way they should be favored in this game when they don't care about it, while the Clippers really need it.

And the Clippers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation here.  They have won four straight coming in and have had the last two days off, and they'll be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA today.

Bets against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 212-137 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.  The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

The Boston Celtics have lost two in a row and now are not only in a tough spot to get the No. 1 seed, but also in jeopardy of losing the No. 2 seed.  They trail the Cavs by one game for the No. 1 and lead the Raptors by one game for the No. 2.  Simply put, they will be highly motivated for a win tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Charlotte Hornets, who aren't mathematically eliminated, but essentially are eliminated from the playoffs.  That's because they are three games behind both the No. 7 Bulls and No. 8 Pacers for the last two playoff spots.  There is only three games to play, so you do the math.  I don't expect the Hornets to show up at all tonight.

The Celtics simply own the Hornets.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They won by 10 and 8 at home earlier this season, and also by 6 on the road.  Now they will cap off the season sweep of the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Charlotte is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in Saturday home games this season.  Bets on road teams (BOSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 114-57 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.