20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 232

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  Gary Trent Jr. (12.8 PPG) is questionable as well. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 11 consecutive games and an average of 105.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 11 games and were just held to 96 points by the Magic, 89 points by the Kings and 103 by the Thunder in their last three games.

The Washington Wizards are without PG Tyus Jones (12.0 PPG, 7.3 APG) and Bilal Coulibaly (8.4 PPG) and could be without Jordan Poole (16.6 PPG), who is questionable.  They are hampered offensively right now and it has shown as they have scored 119 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games.  The Wizards have averaged just 106.8 points per game in their last six games while ranking 24th in offensive rating during this stretch.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in all five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years.  A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City.  Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus.  They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament.

The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs.  They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites.  They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State.

Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical.  That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes.  They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality.  The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting.  They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one.

Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3

Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games.  The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title.  But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2.  They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team.  The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested.

Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State.  They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada.  Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season.  Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games.  They also lost at Bradley.  I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season.

TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player.  The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage.  The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed.  Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Warriors UNDER 240.5

The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games overall.  They aren't playing as fast as they were early in the season and they have been playing much better defense since trading for Pascal Siakam.  They rank 5th in defensive rating in their last seven games, and the shooting struggles of star PG Tyrese Haliburton in recent weeks have been widely documented.  He is 21-of-97 (21.7%) from 3 since the All-Star Break.

Both the Warriors and Pacers will be motivated to play good defense tonight.  The Pacers are trying to avoid the play-in round currently sitting in the 6th seed, and the Warriors are just trying to make the play-in round sitting just 2.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Rockets.  They also want to get home court for the play-in round sitting a half-game behind the Lakers for the 9th spot.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and Warriors with 240 or fewer combined points in six of those seven.  They have averaged 219.9 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, so we are have more than 20 points to spare here with this 240.5-point total.

Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games against teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee.  They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss.

When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country.  To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement.  Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest.  They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed.

The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago.  The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference.  They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic.  It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game.  Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season.

I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers.  Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes.  Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th.  More possessions favors the better team and the favorite.  Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim.  

Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.    This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Charleston/Alabama OVER 170.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense while having the worst defense of the Nate Oats era.  Alabama is 24-8 OVER in all games this season including 12-3 OVER in road games.

The OVER is 10-1 in Alabama's last 11 games overall with 175 or more combined points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The Crimson Tide have scored at least 87 points in eight of their last nine games overall while allowing 88 or more points in seven of their last nine games.

Charleston also likes to run ranking 59th in adjusted tempo and 58th in adjusted offense while just 175th in adjusted defense.  The Cougars have elite guards and can dice up this Alabama defense just like every other team with elite guards has this season.  Alabama likes to get to the rim and will be up against a Charleston defense that is soft inside ranking 5th-to-last in the entire country in defending shots at the rim.

Charleston is 11-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a close win by 3 points or less against a conference opponent.  This will likely be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Raptors UNDER 231.5

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games and an average of 105.6 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 10 games and just scored 89 points against the Kings last game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They are no longer lighting up the scoreboard behind held to 119 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 games.  But they have bee  pretty elite defensively overall and of late, ranking 5th in defensive rating this season.  They will shut down the short-handed Raptors tonight.

Toronto is 22-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 19-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Raptors are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  OKC should win in a blowout tonight, which means no late fouls and a low-scoring 4th quarter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico/Clemson OVER 151

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 42nd in adjusted offense.  They have arguably the best trio of guards in the entire country in House, Mashburn and Dent and can get whatever they want to offensively.

Clemson really struggles defending elite guards as Joseph Girard is a weakness defensively.  But he and this Clemson offense can light it up.  The Tigers rank 27th in adjusted offense, 37th in 2-point percentage and 8th in FT percentage.  They have the bigs in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin that are matchup nightmares for New Mexico, which lacks defensive bigs.

New Mexico is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Clemson is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  The Tigers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games off two consecutive ATS losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday.

Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14.  The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs.  I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run.

NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted.  Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%).  NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance.  That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense.

Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 237.5

The Utah Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of thier last five games overall.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in four of the five games.  This total is also too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Dallas is 7-0 UNDER in home games after covering four of its last five games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday BLOWOUT on Illinois -11.5

Morehead State is a popular underdog pick in the opening round.  That's why this line has been bet down from an opener of 13.5 to 11.5.  But now I think is a great time to go contrarian and back Illinois as a much shorter favorite than they were at the open.

A big reason for the move is because Big Ten teams that won their conference tournament have been upset in the first round the last three years.  Illinois was one of those teams back in 2021.  But they will be made aware of this, and I expect them to avoid the letdown.

Illinois has gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games with its lone loss coming to Purdue.  The Fighting Illini have done damage on the road during this stretch upsetting Wisconsin by 8 as 3-point road dogs and topping a desperate Iowa team by 12 as 2-point favorites.  They won all three games in the Big Ten Tournament including covering the last two scoring 98 points on Nebraska and 93 more on Wisconsin.  They rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted offense and are a tough team to tame.

One quick look at what Morehead State did in non-conference play and it's easy to see why I'm willing to lay the points with Illinois.  The Eagles lost 105-73 at Alabama, 87-57 at Purdue and 74-51 at Penn State.  So there's two Big Ten opponents to compare them to, and I expect another blowout in favor of the Big Ten here.

Illinois is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are 11-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  They have done their best work on the highway this season, and they will get plenty of fans traveling to Omaha to watch them crush Morehead State.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 234

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Kings last five games overall if not for OT.  They were at 210 combined points at the end of regulation with Memphis last game, and have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five consecutive games now.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Kings will have no problem shutting down the Raptors, who are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in nine consecutive games and an average of 107.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank 29th in offensive rating in their last nine games.

Toronto is 21-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 18-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  Sacramento is 45-30 UNDER In its last 75 road games.  The Kings are 12-4 UNDER in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5

This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight.  We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129.  Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much.  Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own.

Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Grambling State/Montana State First 4 ANNIHILATOR on Montana State -3.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Montana State beat California in the non-conference and had narrow losses to good Seattle (by 3), Green Bay (by 1) and Long Beach State (by 6) teams.  The Bobcats were very impressive down the stretch going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games.  

They upset Idaho by 14 as 1-point road dogs, lost in OT at Eastern Washington by 4 as 8.5-point dogs, upset Weber State by 12 as 5-point dogs, upset Weber State again by 9 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Sacramento State by 3 as 5-point favorites and crushed Montana by 15 as 6.5-point dogs.  This team is clearly grossly overvalued here of late with four outright wins as underdogs among those six games.  They make easy work of Grambling State tonight.  Bet Montana State Wednesday.

15* Colorado State/Virginia First 4 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 120.5

Virginia is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cavaliers rank dead last in the country in adjusted tempo (362nd).  They are also 7th in adjusted defense and a terrible offensive team, which is why nobody but Virginia fans want them in the tournament.  While they're here we might as well take advantage and back a Virginia UNDER.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams also prefer to play at a snail's pace ranking 270th in adjusted tempo.  They are much better defensive team than they get credit for ranking 38th in adjusted defense.  They rely heavily on PG Isaiah Stevens to score, and Virginia has the answer with two 1st-team All-ACC defenders in Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn to slow him down.

Virginia combined with Boston College for 114 points at the end of regulation and with NC State for 116 combined points at the end of regulation in a pair of OT games.  But because those games went to OT I think we are getting a little extra value on the UNDER.  Virginia and its opponents have combined for 121 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of its last eight games, including 96 points with Wake Forest and 98 points with UNC.

Virginia is 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  Colorado State is 8-0 UNDER after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Rams are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. teams that shoot 15 or fewer free throws per game after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner.  It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch.  That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road.  Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in.

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well.  They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now.  Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back.  This is a dead team walking right now.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game.  The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season.  New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Knicks last nine games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last five games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points, a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points and a 98-91 win over Sacramento for 189 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Golden State Warriors have been much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back.  These teams met back on February 29th with Golden State winning 110-99 for just 209 combined points.  It should be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

New York is 8-0 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Warriors last 20 games overall.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New York) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Minnesota and Utah just squared off on Saturday with the Timberwolves winning 119-100 for 219 combined points.  This should be another defensive battle tonight in the rematch.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 1st in defensive rating and 22nd in pace.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG) right now, so they are having to rely even more on defense.

Utah has been without two of its top three scorers in Lauri Markkanen (23.1 PPG) and Jordan Clarkson (17.4 PPG) for an extended stretch now.  Points haven't been nearly as easy to come by without these two, and since they are basically eliminated from playoff contention it wouldn't make much sense to rush either back.

The UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings between the Timberwolves and Jazz this season with 219, 191 and 218 combined points in those three.  It will be more of the same in the 4th and final meeting tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5

Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight.  Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games.  They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it.  

They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn.  The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Magic UNDER 217

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Orlando just beat Toronto 113-103 on Friday for 216 combined points.  Now these teams face off again in Orlando tonight, and another defensive battle will be the result.

Orlando is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Magic rank 4th in defensive rating and 26th in pace.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The UNDER is 10-6 in Raptors last 16 games overall.  Injuries have made points very hard to come by for the Raptors here of late.  They are missing arguably their three best players in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett right now.  They have lost eight of their last nine games while ranking 27th in offensive rating during this stretch.

Toronto is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games off a home loss by 10 points or more.  Orlando is 170-128 UNDER in its last 298 Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Heat and Pistons after they just combined for 203 points on Friday.  It will also be the 3rd meeting in 13 days between these teams, so they are very familiar with one another to say the least.

Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Heat last 15 games overall.  The Heat rank 28th in pace this season and 9th in defensive rating.  Injuries are really hampering them offensively right now as they are without Herro, Richardson, Love and Jovic plus Jimmy Butler is questionable.

The Detroit Pistons have been a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline where they lost their two best shooters in Bogdanovic and Burks.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 games overall.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pistons and Heat with 212 or fewer combined points in seven of those 10 games.  Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in home games off two consecutive home games this season.  Miami is 42-24 UNDER in all games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Milwaukee has been a dead nuts UNDER team since Doc Rivers took over as head coach.  The Bucks are 16-3-2 UNDER in their last 21 games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in 14 of their last 17 games.  The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Suns last 13 games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The books have set this total too high today.

I love betting UNDERS in early start games on Sunday's.  Usually teams are sleep walking through the first half because they aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Suns and Bucks with 220, 220 and 205 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Duquesne/VCU UNDER 128

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Ten of the 13 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Teams haven't been able to figure out these rims, plus teams play great defense in this conference and slow down the tempo.  It will be more of the same in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.

Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 248th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 156th in adjusted offense.  The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points and St. Bonaventure to 60 points in their last two games.

VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams rank 302nd in adjusted tempo and 50th in adjusted defense.  The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham, 59 to UMass and 60 points to St. Joseph's in their first three games in this tournament.  Both teams will struggle to reach 60 points in this one.

Duquesne is 23-9 UNDER in all games this season.  Duquesne is 16-4 UNDER in conference games this season.  The Dukes are 21-6 UNDER vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Duquesne is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games against teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

20* Knicks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last eight games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last four games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points and a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Sacramento Kings are much better defensively than they get credit for.  That has been on display in their last two games holding the Lakers to 107 points and the Bucks to 94 points.  I think they can hold the Knicks in check today as well.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 points (New YOrk) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 22-4 (84.6%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more.  I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards.  They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS, including 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as 4.5-point dogs to Illinois today.

Both Illinois and Nebraska got a bye into the quarterfinals.  But Nebraska is going to be the fresher team because they crushed Indiana 93-66 yesterday, while Illinois needed a double-digit comeback to beat Ohio State 77-74.  The Fighting Illini basically trailed the entire way despite Ohio State playing its 3rd game in 3 days and being a tired team.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from an 87-84 (OT) road loss at Illinois.  The Huskers already proved they could play with the Fighting Illini on the road, and now I love their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral in the rematch.

Nebraska is 9-1 ATS with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Huskers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 tournament games.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Florida SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 152

One quick look at the head-to-head history between Texas A&M and Florida shows that this total has been set too high.  They combined for 133 points in their lone meeting this season.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings and an average of just 126.3 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have 26 points to play with here with this total of 152.  

The Aggies and Gators have combined for 149 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 15 of their last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 152-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. Bonaventure/Duquesne UNDER 135

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense.

Duquesne is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 246th in adjusted tempo, 34th in adjusted defense and 162nd in adjusted offense.  The Dukes have allowed 66 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They held a very good Dayton team to just 57 points last game.

St. Bonaventure is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bonnies rank 288th in adjusted tempo this season, so this game will be played at a snail's pace.  They held Loyola-Chicago to just 58 points at the end of regulation last game.

Duquesne and St. Bonaventure have combined for 136 or fewer points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 126 or fewer in six of those nine.  Duquesne is 22-9 UNDER in all games this season, including 15-4 UNDER in conference games.  The Dukes are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* St. Bonaventure/Duquesne Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Duquesne PK

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won six consecutive games and have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 last game to prove how good they are right now.  They also swept St. Bonaventure in the regular season winning 54-50 at home and 75-69 on the road.

St. Bonaventure is very fortunate to be in the semifinals.  The Bonnies beat La Salle 75-73 as 8.5-point favorites in the opener and Loyola-Chicago 75-74 (2 OT) in the quarterfinals for two wins by a combined 3 points.  Plus, Loyola-Chicago choked not scoring a single point in the final 6:02 of regulation after being in complete control, getting outscored 11-0 to close out the game to go to OT.

Duquesne is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Dukes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Bet Duquesne Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida ML -150

South Florida is 24-6 this season including 17-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

South Florida is coming off an 81-59 win over ECU as 8-point favorites to improve to 22-2 SU in its last 24 games overall.  One of those losses came 75-71 at UAB on January 7th in their lone meeting this season.  The Bulls want revenge from that defeat now and are fresh after blowing out ECU yesterday.

UAB beat Wichita State 72-60 yesterday.  But Wichita State was playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two tough games that went down to the wire.  The Blazers won't have that same luxury today against the fresh Bulls, who will get their revenge and win this game.

USF is 8-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida on the Money Line Saturday.

15* St. Joe's/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Joe's/VCU UNDER 139.5

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has been very low scoring thus far.  Eight of the 11 games have seen 132 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Now these teams have had a day off to prepare for their opponents on Friday, which will benefit defense.

VCU is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Rams rank 297th in adjusted tempo and 56th in adjusted defense.  The Rams allowed just 62 points to Fordham and 59 to UMass in their first two games in this tournament.  St. Joe's has upped its defense down the stretch, holding nine straight opponents to 75 points or fewer, including 57 to George Mason and 61 to Richmond in the first two games of this tournament.  I don't expect either team to get to 70 today.

St. Joe's is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games when revenging a same-season loss.  VCU Is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are playing with double-revenge today.  They lost by 6 at home and by 8 on the road in their two meetings with Purdue this season.  So they have shown they can play with the Boilermakers, and I think getting 6.5 points with them is a tremendous value today.

The Badgers have saved their best basketball for last going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They crushed Maryland 87-56 in the Big Ten Tournament opener and were never really threatened late in their 70-61 win over Northwestern yesterday.  

Purdue was life and death with Michigan State in a 67-62 win yesterday.  PG Braden Smith (13.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers) suffered a bad knee injury in that win over the Spartans.  He was hobbled pretty badly and I wouldn't be surprised if he sits today.  Matt Painter would be wise to sit him, but if he does play he won't be anywhere near 100%.

Greg Gard is 20-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 tournament games.  Purdue is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 March games.  Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -2

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 72-58 win over Utah yesterday.

Washington State had a much easier opponent in Stanford yesterday.  The Cougars are already in the NCAA Tournament and won't be as motivated as Colorado, which is somehow still on the bubble despite winning seven consecutive games.  The Buffaloes have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it, and that chip will remain tonight.

Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on NC State +3

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cavaliers are going to make the NCAA Tournament but they shouldn't.  They rank 9th in luck of 362 teams in the country, which is a stat that factors in wins in close games.  They have a ton of them.

The Cavaliers had another lucky win yesterday beating Boston College 66-60 (OT).  They trailed basically the entire way and never led by more than 2 points in regulation.  Their luck runs out today against a healthy, motivated NC State team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

NC State has been impressive in this ACC Tournament.  They upset Syracuse 83-65 in the opener and then upset Duke 74-69 as 11-point dogs yesterday.  They carry that momentum into yet another upset win over Virginia even though I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games off a win by 6 points or less.  NC State is 35-18 ATS in its last 53 conference tournament games.  Bet NC State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/Utah State UNDER 137

Both San Diego State and Utah State are tired teams after both needed OT to beat UNLV and Fresno State, respectively, yesterday.  I think those tired legs will make more of an impact on the offensive end than the defensive end.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Aztecs rank 252nd in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  They struggle to get easy points on offense and aren't a very good shooting team ranking 299th in 3-point shooting.

A big reason Utah State won the MWC regular season title is their improvement on defense this season.  They rank 52nd in defensive rating.  The UNDER is 6-2-1 in San Diego State's last nine games and would be 7-1-1 if not for going to OT yesterday.  These teams combined for just 131 points in their most recent meeting on February 20th.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State ML -115

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 yesterday and will still be fresh today as a result.

Now the Cyclones have their sights set on revenge from a 70-68 loss at Baylor in their lone meeting this season.  They hit a 3-pointer just after that buzzer that counted originally but was waved off.  They had a shot to win despite Baylor shooting 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range, and the Bears won't shoot that well again.

Baylor needed a 2H comeback to beat Cincinnati 68-56 yesterday.  That was a tired Cincinnati team playing their 3rd game in 3 days as well.  I think the Bears are getting way too much respect here as essentially a PK against Iowa State in a game that will feel like a home game for the Cyclones as it always does in Hilton South.

Iowa State is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 conference tournament games.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after covering four of its last five games.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last eight games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Friday.

15* Indiana/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 22-9 SU & 20-11 ATS, including 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as only 3.5-point favorites over Indiana today.

Nebraska has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, Indiana was life and death yesterday in a 61-59 victory over Penn State, which had played the day prior and was at a rest disadvantage. Indiana has basically a 6-man rotation right now without Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG), which makes this back-to-back situation for them even worse than most teams.

Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Huskers beat the Hoosiers 86-70 at home and 85-70 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Nebraska is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight.

I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game.  They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued.  They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out.

Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season.  Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis.  They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight.

The Suns are in a terrible spot here.  They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier.  Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday.  They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night.  They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth.

The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pitt/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.  They made easy work of Wake Forest yesterday, and now they have a great shot to pull the upset over North Carolina today.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Tournament semifinal games.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers made easy work of Maryland 87-56 yesterday.  They got to rest their starters in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game against Northwestern.  That's why I'm willing to lay the points with the Badgers despite being at a rest disadvantage against the Wildcats, who got a bye into the quarterfinals.

The Wildcats are vulnerable right now playing without two key players in G Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3% 3-pointers) and C Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) to really hamper their depth.  They lost two of their final three games to close out the regular season without these guys.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -7

South Florida is 23-6 this season including 16-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

The Bulls have the rest advantage over East Carolina in this one.  They got a bye into the quarterfinals while East Carolina was life and death with Tulsa yesterday in an 84-79 victory.  The Pirates won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls, who won their lone meeting on the road 71-60 earlier this season.

South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Blazers UNDER 206.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last three games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points and a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Blazers are really struggling to score right now with all of their injuries.  The Blazers rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rating.  They also prefer to play slow like the Knicks ranking just 23rd in pace.  This game will be slowed to a crawl, and both teams will struggle offensively.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Villanova/Marquette Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Villanova.  They needed a 3-pointer in the final seconds to beat DePaul as a 24.5-point favorite yesterday.  Nobody wants to back this team now.  The Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder because of all the hate they have been receiving.  They are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Marquette today may very well get them in.

The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will make all the difference and gives the Wildcats a legit shot to pull off the upset.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted defense and struggle to get easy buckets on offense.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Villanova's last eight games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in 11 consecutive games, which makes for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Marquette is an UNDER team in its current state.  The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will benefit the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Boston College/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +5

Rarely will I back a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a team that hasn't played yet in these conference tournaments.  Usually the team playing their 3rd game in 3 days runs out of gas, but that shouldn't be the case for Boston College.

The Eagles made easy work of Miami 81-65 two days ago and then easy work of Clemson 76-55 yesterday.  They are a pretty deep team with a 9-man rotation, and four of their five starters played 31 or fewer minutes yesterday.  They should still be plenty fresh for Virginia tonight.

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country and doesn't belong in the Big Dance.  The Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Two of the three wins came by 4 points or less, including a 4-point win over Boston College on February 28th, which places the Eagles in revenge mode as well.

Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games away from home after winning two of its last three games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and I'll ride that momentum today in a game they are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset for a 3rd consecutive day.  Bet Boston College Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Washington State -8.5

Washington State has the rest advantage over Stanford today.  The Cougars got a bye into the Pac-12 quarterfinals, while the Cardinal needed an 18-point 2H comeback to beat rival California yesterday.  Not only that, but the Cardinal needed OT to get the job done, so they are extra tired.

The only team Stanford has been able to beat here of late is lowly California, who they get up for because they are rivals.  The Cardinal are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with both wins coming of Cal, and all six losses coming by 10 points or more.  Four starters played at least 36 minutes for Stanford yesterday, and they won't have much left in the tank for Washington State tonight.

Washington State beat Stanford 89-75 on the road and 72-59 at home in their two meetings earlier this season.  Another double-digit victory in their favor will be the result with their rest advantage tonight.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th.  So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch.

Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home.  

They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable.  This is a tired team right now.  The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

15* K-State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -5.5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.

The Cyclones have the rest advantage today after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while the Wildcats needed a big comeback to beat Texas 78-74 yesterday.  The Wildcats are not a deep team and had five players play at least 29 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones today.

Iowa State also wants revenge from a 65-58 loss at Kansas State in the regular season finale.  They had just accomplished a perfect home record with a 68-63 home win over BYU three days prior and were in a clear letdown spot.  Now the Wildcats will have their full attention in the rematch here tonight.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  The Cyclones are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 60-38 ATS in its last 98 games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Iowa State UNDER 132.5

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cyclones rank 174th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in adjusted defense and just 75th in adjusted offense.  They face another dead nuts UNDER team in Kansas State, which ranks 183rd in adjusted tempo, 19th in adjusted defense and 138th in adjusted offense.  Both teams hang their hats on defense.

That's why it should come as no surprise that the Cyclones and Wildcats just combined for 123 points in their final meeting of the season on March 9th.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in less than a week.  Points will be very hard to come by for both teams once again.

TJ Otzelberger is 11-2 UNDER In March games as the coach of Iowa State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* TCU/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU +10.5

TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Horned Frogs can make their case with an upset win over Houston today.  They will be 'all in' to get this win, and catching 10.5 points is a nice value on a desperate Horned Frogs team today.

Houston was dominant at home this season, but they were vulnerable on the highway.  In fact, each of their last 11 road games were either losses or wins by 8 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing TCU pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Houston doesn't need this win as they are locked into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Bet TCU Thursday.

15* Wake Forest/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2

Pitt has a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage today over Wake Forest, which is a big reason why I'm on the Panthers.  Plus, this is one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 9-2 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Wake Forest is not a deep team and will not handle this back-to-back situation very well as a result.  The Demon Deacons had to play their starters big minutes yesterday in a 72-59 win over Notre Dame.  All five starters played at least 26 minutes, including 36 from Sallis and 35 from Miller.  Their bench provided a total of 11 points in the win as this is one of the worst benches in the country.

Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Maryland/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin has the rest advantage over Maryland today.  The Badgers got a bye into the quarterfinals while the Terrapins beat Rutgers 65-51 yesterday.  Seven players played at least 21 minutes for the Terrapins yesterday, and I question how much they have left in the tank for the Badgers.

Rutgers pretty much quit late in the season, so the Terrapins are getting too much respect from that win.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Badgers, who went 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games to close out the regular season.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +2.5

UMass has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while VCU was in a dog fight with Fordham yesterday in a 69-62 win.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing UMass.  Plus, the minutemen beat the Rams 74-52 in their lone meeting this season, and I trust head coach Frank Martin to have his team ready.

UMass is 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UMass Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Richmond UNDER 142

This will be a sleepy 11:30 AM EST start time for this Atlantic 10 Tournament opener between St. Joe's and Richmond.  These early games always tend to be lower scoring because it takes both teams some time to wake up.

Richmond ranks 213th in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted defense while just 147th in adjusted offense, so the Spiders are a dead nuts UNDER team.  St. Joe's played the early game yesterday which proved to be a defensive battle in a 64-57 win over George Mason that saw just 121 combined points.

Richmond beat St. Joe's 73-66 on March 6th in their lone meeting this season for 139 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be their 2nd meeting in just over a week, so they'll know how to stop one another.

St. Joe's is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games when revenging a same-season loss.  Richmond is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven road games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* St. Joe's/Richmond Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on Richmond -2.5

Richmond has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while St. Joe's was in a dog fight with George Mason yesterday.  St. Joe's saw all 5 starters play at least 34 minutes and they are lacking depth with only a 7-man rotation.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing Richmond.

The Spiders beat the Hawks 73-66 in their lone meeting this season.  Richmond has been undervalued all year going 21-9 ATS in all game, including 14-4 ATS as a favorite.  The Spiders are also a perfect 11-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, and 8-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Bet Richmond Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games.

The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here.  They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -22.5

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-20 SU & 7-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall 10 of those losses by double-digits and eight by 19 points or more.

Villanova is squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to take DePaul lightly.  They haven't take the Blue Demons lightly in their two meetings already this season to say the least.  Villanova beat DePaul 84-48 on the road on December 23rd and 94-69 at home on January 12th.  Another 23-plus point victory in their favor is in store today to cover this number.  This will be our last opportunity to fade DePaul this season, and we'll take full advantage.

DePaul is 0-6 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford/California UNDER 150.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Stanford and California just met in the regular season finale with an 80-58 win by the Cardinal and just 138 combined points.  They also combined for 144 points in their previous meeting at California.

But the UNDER run between these hated rivals extends back much further.  The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.  The Cardinal and Bears have combined for 146 or fewer points in 12 of those 13 meetings, making for a 12-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

Michigan is just ready for this season to be over.  The Wolverines have gone 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all eight losses by 8 points or more and seven losses by double-digits.  They should be catching more than 6.5 points to Penn State today.

Penn State has improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades.  The Nittany Lions are 6-5 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-69 win over Maryland and will make easy work of this lifeless Michigan team tonight.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference tournament games.  Michigan is 0-13 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  This will be our last chance to fade the Wolverines this season and we'll take advantage.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses.  They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets.

Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season.  They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th.  Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight.  This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets.

Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Miami and Denver met in the NBA Finals last season and this will be their 2nd meeting this season.  These games have been very low-scoring, and this one will be another defensive battle tonight.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Heat and Nuggets dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  They have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of those six meetings and an average of just 200.8 combined points per game.  That's over 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 215, so there's clearly value with the UNDER.

Both Miami and Denver are dead nuts UNDER teams as it is.  Miami ranks 28th in pace while Denver ranks 27th in pace this season.  The Heat rank 9th in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 10th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace again tonight.

Miami is 18-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  Denver is 22-12 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne -6.5

Saint Louis was life and dead yesterday with Rhode Island in a 74-71 win.  The Billikens only have a 7-man rotation and Jimerson played 39 minutes, Hargrove Jr. 36 and Medley 34 yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Duquesne Dukes today.

I'll gladly back Duquesne with the rest advantage today.  The Dukes have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall including an 81-66 win as 9.5-point home favorites over St. Louis.  This is a short number for them to be laying in the rematch, especially with the rest advantage.

St. Louis is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Bet Duquesne Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Syracuse ML -125

The Syracuse Orange are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Clemson on Senior Day.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against NC State this season beating the Wolfpack by 12 at home and by 4 on the road.

The Orange have the rest advantage over the Wolfpack today.  They got a bye into this round, while NC State was life and dead with a very bad Louisville team yesterday, winning 94-85.  Not to mention, they are without G DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers), who is their best player.  They only have an 8-man rotation and Taylor and Morsell both played 39 minutes yesterday.

NC State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after grabbing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +10.5

The Georgetown Hoyas have been known for making runs in the Big East Tournament even when they had poor regular seasons.  I think they have what it takes to give Providence a run for its money in the opener today.  They only lost by 5 to Xavier and by 8 at St. John's in two of their last three games.

The other game resulted in a 71-58 home loss to Providence.  But Georgetown was coming off that deflating loss to Xavier and didn't show up.  Head coach Ed Cooley called his team out, and they responded by giving St. John's a scare on the road in the finale.  That was a desperate St. John's team trying to make the tournament and playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.

Providence is not playing well at all.  The Friars are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 22 at Marquette, by 11 at home to Villanova and by 14 at home to UConn.  Providence shot 49.1% in that last meeting with Georgetown while the Hoyas shot 35.1%.  Some positive shooting regression is coming Georgetown's way in this one.

Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Georgetown is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when revenging a home loss.  Bet Georgetown Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Xavier/Butler UNDER 150.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Butler played Xavier in the regular season finale in a game that finished 72-66 for just 138 combined points.  This total of 150.5 has been set way too high for the rematch today in this win-or-go-home situation.

Butler has been a dead nuts UNDER team for weeks.  The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Butler's last nine games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in all nine games.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Fordham/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5

Fordham needed OT yesterday to put away Davidson 71-63.  The Rams aren't a deep team going with a 7-man rotation and all seven played at least 21 minutes yesterday, including 45 from Kochera, 41 from Huffman, 34 from Logan and 34 from Durkin.  They won't have much left in the tank today against VCU, which will ramp up the defensive pressure and make life difficult on the Rams.

It's a great 'buy low' spot on VCU after closing out the regular season with three consecutive losses.  But they arguably came to the three best teams in the Atlantic 10 in Richmond (by 3) and Dayton (by 5) on the road, as well as Duquesne at home, which was a sandwich spot.  Now they take a big step down in class here and will be highly motivated to get back on track.

VCU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Fordham.  Six of the seven wins have come by 15 points or more, including their 75-60 win at Fordham on February 6th in their lone meeting this season.  Fordham is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.   Fordham is 3-10 ATS off an ATS win this season.  VCU is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards ML -127

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now.  They are playing a G League team due to all of their injuries.  Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. have been playing well to keep them competitive at times, but not both of those guys are out.  They have 10 players listed as out and another 3 players questionable heading into tonight with the worst injury report of any team.

The Washington Wizards continue to show up every night and are coming off consecutive wins over the Hornets by 12 at home and an upset win at Miami as 11.5-point dogs.  They have done their best work on the road going 21-12-1 ATS in their 34 road games.  They should make easy work of the depleted, unmotivated Grizzlies tonight.

Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Southwest Division opponents.  Memphis is 2-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS in home games against bad defensive teams that allow 48% or higher the last two seasons.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.  They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range.  They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season.  The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games.  

They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 209

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic two games ago and their 79-73 loss to the 76ers last game.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games, including 99 or fewer five times.  The UNDER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just combined for 152 points on Sunday, so we have a lot of margin for error here in the rematch taking this UNDER 209.  New York is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The Knicks are 11-3 UNDER in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* WVU/Cincinnati Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 144.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between WVU and Cincinnati this season, including the 2nd meeting in 4 days.  They combined for 134 points in their first meeting and 148 in their 2nd, but Cincinnati shot an unsustainable 59% in that game and WVU shot 42.1% from 3.

Now in a win-or-go-home situation here in the 3rd meeting Tuesday, I think the defensive intensity will be very high.  The Bearcats rank 197th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense, profiling as an UNDER team.  I think we're getting some value on the under after both of these teams trended over late in the season.

Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams with a total of 140 to 149.5 (Cincinnati) - off a home win where they scored 85 points or more are 106-61 (63.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Early ANNIHILATOR on George Washington/La Salle UNDER 146.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  La Salle just beat George Washington 72-66 for 138 combined points in their second-to-last game of the season.  Both teams actually shot pretty well in that game so there was nothing fluky about it being low scoring.

La Salle is now 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  George Washington is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in three of those four.  The Colonials have really struggled scoring since losing Garrett Johnson (13.4 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers) to injury in mid-February.

George Washington is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road/neutral games after losing 12 or more of its last 15 games.  La Salle is 13-5 UNDER in conference games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions.  C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor.  So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case.

This is a very tough spot for the Bulls.  They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip.  This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him.

The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out.

San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out.  Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch.

Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade.  I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.

I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker.  But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time.  They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games.  They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either.

The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic.  Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range.  This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 9th in defensive rating.  They are missing key offensive pieced in Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic last time out.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing their top two scorers in Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG) as well as De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games, including 99 or fewer four times.  The UNDER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New York is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Iowa OVER 171.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and play little defense to boot.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The OVER is 13-2 in their 15 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 171.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces another dead nuts OVER team in Iowa that will run right with them.  The Hawkeyes rank 26th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense.  These teams just met on February 24th and a 95-85 shootout was the result for 180 combined points.  Neither team shot the lights out either as Iowa went 4-of-12 (33.3%) from 3 while Illinois went 10-of-27 (37%).  It will be more of the same with a shootout in the rematch here tonight.

Illinois is 11-1 OVER in road games this season.  Iowa is 11-4 OVER in home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois.  That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes.  Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left.  They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season.

This is a terrible spot for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game.  But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for.  They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago.  I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result.

Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Sunday.