15* SDSU/Wyoming ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -1.5

The Wyoming Cowboys are a team that just doesn't get the attention they deserve.  Yes, they just recently moved into the Top 25 after their 15-2 start this season, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers still don't give the Cowboys the respect they deserve.

Wyoming's only two losses this season came on the road to SMU (53-66) and California (42-45), which are two very good teams and it should not be ashamed of those losses one bit.  At home, it has been a completely different story for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Wyoming is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.5 points per game at home this year.  It is coming off impressive back-to-back wins at Colorado State (60-54) as 5-point dogs, and at home against Boise State (65-54) as 7-point favorites.

San Diego State is 12-4 this season and clearly overvalued due to what it has done in recent years.  Well, these aren't the same Aztecs this season.  They are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses at Washington (36-49) as 1.5-point favorites, at Cincinnati (62-71) as 2-point dogs, and at Fresno State (57-59) as 8.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Wyoming and San Diego State.  The home team has won four straight and nine of the last 11 meetings.  The Cowboys have pulled off the upset in each of their last two home meetings with the Aztecs.  They won 68-62 at home as 4-point dogs to SDSU last year, and 58-45 as 2-point home dogs in 2013.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO ST) - poor three point shooting team (32% or worse) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

San Diego State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country.  It shoots just 40.4% from the field and 28.0% from the 3-point stripe.  Wyoming shoots 50.4% from the field while allowing just 39.8% shooting and 52.2 points per game to opponents.  The Cowboys are one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends of the floor.

The Aztecs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Wyoming is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +2

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-6 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-4 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73), Ohio State (61-77) and Nebraska (43-53).  I look for it to drop to 0-5 on the road this season against a Northwestern team that is 10-6 and underrated in terms of the betting public and the oddsmakers.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  This team just isn't that good without Rice.

The Wildcats had won four straight prior to their back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the Big Ten in Wisconsin and Michigan State.  Well, they actually went on the road and gave the Spartans all they could handle as 14-point underdogs.  They forced overtime and eventually lost 77-84.

Northwestern has played Illinois very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, it has actually won four of the last six meetings with one of the two losses coming by a single point.  It won 49-43 at home last year as 5.5-point underdogs.  The Wildcats also pulled off a pair of upsets with a 68-54 win as 10-point road dogs in 2013 and a 74-70 win as 6-point road dogs in 2012.

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  These last four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off tonight in their 3rd meeting of the 2014-15 season.  They played on December 23rd and January 9th, so this will actually be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, and that familiarity will lead to a defensive battle tonight on ESPN.

After all, it has been mostly defensive battles when these teams have gotten together here of late.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings between the Bulls and Wizards have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 188, 190, 144, and 187 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 177.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 17th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The key to their success has been defense as both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.  Washington ranks 6th giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago ranks 10th at 101.7.

The Bulls are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season in a 114-121 loss to Orlando last time out.  You can bet that Tom Thibodeau has been in their ears about defense, because he cannot stand to give up that many points as he's a defensive-minded guy.  Look for the Bulls to come out with a huge effort defensively tonight, especially after losing to the Wizards 86-102 less than a week ago.

The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Wizards last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls and Wizards have combined for less than 195 points in 17 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 17-3 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic come into this game way undervalued.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall to drop to 14-27 on the season.  Well, they are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 121-114 win at Chicago, and they will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight because of it.

Houston comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Well, those four wins came against Cleveland (without Lebron), New York, Utah and Brooklyn (without Deron Williams).  With a game against Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow, the Rockets could easily be overlooking the Magic tonight.

Victor Oladipo had a season-high 33 points and Nikola Vucevic added 33 with 11 rebounds against the Bulls as Orlando recorded its highest scoring total of the season. "When we're aggressive on defense and we're pushing the pace on offense, that gives us more opportunities to score more points," reserve Willie Green told the team's official website. "Vooch and Vic carried us offensively and everybody else just played their role. For us, it's just about us needing to score more points."

The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This team has shown that it can play with some of the best teams in the league this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +4

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-6) are primed for a big performance against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight.  I look for them to not only cover this 4-point spread, but to likely win this game outright with all the factors that are in play coming in.

Georgia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory due to losing three straight to open ACC play to fall to 0-3 within the conference. All three losses came by 7 points or less at Notre Dame (76-83, OT) as 11.5-point dogs, versus Syracuse (45-46) as 4-point dogs, and at Wake Forest (69-76) as 3-point dogs.

Obviously, after already losing to Notre Dame in overtime in the ACC opener on January 3rd on the road, the Yellow Jackets are going to be out for revenge in the rematch less than two weeks later.  They are simply going to want this game more.

Notre Dame (15-2) is overvalued due to its fast start to the season.  It is in a prime letdown spot after a 56-62 loss to No. 2 ranked Virginia on Saturday.  Look for the Irish to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.

One factor that is getting overlooked here is that Notre Dame forward Zach Auguste has been suspended indefinitely following the Virginia Game.  Auguste is the team's second-leading scorer (14.3 PPG) and second-leading rebounder (6.4 RPG).  He also shoots 65.3% from the field, so his loss is a crushing blow to the Fighting Irish.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up in the last four meetings.  Notre Dame is 6-15 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Irish are 3-12 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.   Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 213.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings tonight.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this game, which has been a common theme when these teams have gotten together recently.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  The Mavericks and Kings have combined for 204, 184, 203 and 210 points in their last four meetings, respectively, and they have not combined for more than 213.5 in any of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 200.3 points per game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total.

The Mavericks have become a much better defensive team since trading for Rajon Rondo.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  However, they are certainly a worse offensive team with Rondo.  They have failed to top 100 points in each of their last three games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mavericks last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 203

The betting public looks at the Golden State Warriors and is quick to back the overs in their games because of their electrifying duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.  What they fail to realize is that the Warriors have the best record (29-5) in the NBA because of their defense.

Indeed, Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions.  Teams are only shooting 41.9% against the Warriors.  Their defense is only going to get better now that Andrew Bogut is back healthy.

The Utah Jazz have been playing tremendous defense here of late.  They have allowed 98 or fewer points in 10 of their last 13 games overall, and 105 or fewer in each of their last 13.  They are allowing just 92.8 points per game in their last 13 contests.  A big reason is the insertion of Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  He is a force down low who provides no offense, but a ton of blocks and boards on D.

Nobody is going to mistake the Jazz for a great offensive team.  In fact, they have been pretty terrible on that end of the floor here of late.  They have scored 101 or fewer points in 12 straight games.  The Jazz are only averaging 94.1 pints per game in their last 12 games.  As a result, the UNDER is 10-1 in Utah's last 11 games overall.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Jazz and Warriors.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1 during this stretch.  The UNDER is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings as they have combined for 202 or fewer points in eight of those 10.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 28-7 (80%) since 1997.  Utah is 12-2 to the UNDER vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -4

The South Carolina Gamecocks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and Ole Miss to open SEC play, so they are going to be highly motivated to get their first taste of victory in conference play.

South Carolina has dropped to 9-5 with those two straight losses, but this is still one of the most underrated teams in the country with four starters back from last year.  Wins over the likes of Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60) certainly show what the Gamecocks are capable of.

Alabama comes into this game way overvalued due to its six-game winning streak and its 2-0 start in SEC play.  Well, this streak has mostly come against a soft schedule with five of six games at home.  Yes, the 56-38 win at Tennessee last time out was impressive, but now the Vols are in a massive letdown spot.

Tennessee plays No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  It's only human nature for the Volunteers to be looking ahead to that game against the Wildcats.  They will come into this game overconfident due to their six-game streak, and they will be peaking ahead to Kentucky.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the Gamecocks, who will simply want this one more.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  South Carolina is 6-2 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 17.9 points per game.  Alabama is 1-2 in true road games this year.

Alabama is 2-21 ATS off six or more consecutive since since 1997.  This trend just goes to show you that the Crimson Tide have been overvalued when on extended winning streaks.  Also, the Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +11

The Orlando Magic are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  I'll take advantage and grab as many points as I can get in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

At 13-27 on the season, the Magic get no respect from the betting public.  Well, they have been much better than their record would indicate, as evidenced by their profitable 22-18 ATS mark on the season.  They simply have lost the majority of their close games, which has made their record worse than it should be right now.

The Magic come in undervalued due to their current six-game losing streak.  Seven of their last nine losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to this skid and to get back in the win column.

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this year.  They have gone just 17-21 ATS on the season.  They have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or less.  They have also been blown out by Brooklyn (82-96) at home, Utah (77-97) at home and Washington (86-102) on the road during their 2-7 ATS stretch.

Chicago is also dealing with some injury issues right now.  Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight with a hip contusion and a sore left knee.  He missed their last game in a 95-87 home win over Milwaukee on Saturday where Pau Gasol scored a career high 46 points.  He's not going to do that again.  Mike Dunleavy is also doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury.

The Magic have done their best work on the road where they are 16-8 ATS this season.  They have also played the Bulls very tough in Chicago in recent meetings.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the United Center.  They have only lost once by more than 9 points to the Bulls in their last 10 trips to Chicago.  That's a 9-1 ATS system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The underdog is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start to the season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 19-13 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, so they were expected to make another run at the tournament this year.

Well, that run needs to start soon after a slow 9-6 start for the Huskers.  They have been in every game they've played as all six of their losses have come by 11 points or less, and I have no doubt that this team is better than their record.  They got back on track with a 65-49 home win over Rutgers last time out, and I look for them to carry that momentum into today's game with Illinois.

Illinois came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They weren't very good last year, but they returned five starters this year, which is why expectations were so high.  Well, the Illini are just 11-5 this season.  They don't have many good wins at all, either.

Illinois is 0-3 in true road games this season with losses to Miami (61-70), Michigan (65-73) and Ohio State (61-77).  I look for it to drop to 0-4 on the road this season against a Nebraska team that has been great at home over the past two seasons.  The Huskers are 22-4 at home over the past two years.

The Illini did return five starters this year, but they are down to three now.  That's because Tracy Abrams is out for the season.  Also, their best player in Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who leads the team in points and rebounds, is out for the next four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice recently.  They come in overvalued off their upset home win over Maryland, but this team just isn't that good without Rice.

Nebraska is 13-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Huskers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten foes.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-11) come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four coming in with all three losses coming on the road.  Now, they return home where they'll handle the Phoenix Suns to get back on track.

Memphis is 14-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 7.3 points per game.  Phoenix is a solid 13-10 on the road this season, but most of its road wins have come against weak teams with losing records.  In fact, only two of its road wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  Indeed, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Phoenix.  All five of those wins have come by 5 points or more, and covering this small 4.5-point spread won't be a problem tonight either.

The Grizzlies are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  It's also worth noting that Memphis just got back Zach Randolph from a nine-game absence.  They are going to be a much stronger team going forward with a healthy Randolph back in the lineup.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are coming off a pair of defensive battles last night.  The Bulls lost 86-102 at Washington, while the Bucks beat the Timberwolves 98-84 at home.  Both games went UNDER the total, and the oddsmakers have set the number too high again tonight at 194 points for this contest.

Milwaukee is the single-most improved team in the NBA this season.  It has posted a 20-18 record up to this point and is comfortably in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  The reason for the Bucks' resurgence is their defense, which has been some of the best the NBA has to offer.

The Bucks are now a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have held eight of their last nine opponents to 94 or fewer points, and an average of just 86.7 points per game.  If that's not getting it done on the defensive end, then I don't know what is.

Both Chicago and Milwaukee rank among the Top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee ranks 4th, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is a solid 9th in allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

When these teams get together, it's usually a low-scoring affair.  Indeed, the Bulls and Bucks have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 175.2 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games over the last three seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 173.1 points per game in these spots, winning 88.7 to 84.4 on average.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Virginia/Notre Dame ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to be undervalued this season as home underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Irish came into the season picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC.  Well, everyone was wrong on this team, and the oddsmakers are wrong in listing them as home underdogs in this matchup as well.

Notre Dame is off to a 14-1 start this season and currently ranked No. 13 in the country.  Its only loss came by a final of 74-75 on a neutral court against Providence, which was actually essentially a home game for the Friars.  The Irish have impressive wins over the likes of UMass (81-68) and Purdue (94-63) on a neutral court, Michigan State (79-78) and Florida State (83-63) at home, as well as North Carolina (71-70) on the road.

Notre Dame returned four starters from last year, and all four have made big strides this season.  The key was getting Jerian Grant back from suspension.  Grant only played the first 12 games last year before being suspended the rest of the way due to academic issues.

Grant (17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.2 rpg) is one of the best players in the entire country.  Zach Auguste (14.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg) along with Grant give the Irish four players who are scoring at least 13.9 points per game.  Not too many other teams in the country can claim that.

While Virginia is a very good team that won the ACC regular season and postseason titles last year, it is simply overvalued due to its 14-0 start this season.  The Cavaliers have been flirting with disaster here of late, and I look for them to suffer their first loss of the season Saturday to the best team they have played yet. 

They only beat Davidson 83-72 at home as 18-point favorites, Miami 89-80 (OT) on the road as 6.5-point favorites, and NC State (61-51) at home as 14-point favorites in their last three games overall.  They easily could have lost all three games, especially that overtime game on the road against Miami.

Notre Dame is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  The Fighting Irish are 12-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 26.5 points per game.  They are simply tough to beat at home, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere on Saturday.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are in a massive hangover spot here.  They came out of nowhere to give No. 1 Kentucky a run for its money on Tuesday, forcing overtime with the Wildcats before eventually losing 86-89 as 23-point underdogs.

While that performance was impressive, there's no way this team will be able to recover from such a tough defeat to the No. 1 team in the country.  I look for the Rebels to fall flat on their faces Saturday against a South Carolina team that is better and will want this game more.

The Rebels aren't even that good of a team this year at 9-5, and several performances show that.  They lost at home to Charleston Southern 65-66 as 13-point favorites, lost at home to TCU 54-66 as 6-point favorites, and lost at home to Western Kentucky 74-81 as 9.5-point favorites.  So, they have already been beaten three times at home this year by suspect competition.

South Carolina has really impressed me during its 9-4 start.  Its four losses have all come to quality competition in Baylor (65-69), Charlotte (63-65), Akron (63-68) and Florida (68-72) all by four points or less.  It has also beaten some good teams like Oklahoma State (75-49), Clemson (68-45) and Iowa State (64-60). 

The Gamecocks are very close to being a 13-0 team right now despite playing a brutal schedule.  Head coach Frank Martin, who had a ton of success at Kansas State before arriving at South Carolina, finally has his players in place.  He returned four starters from last year's team, and this is now a battle-tested, experience squad, which counts for a lot.

South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  South Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Ole Miss.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on DePaul +21

There's no denying that the Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 on the season.  However, with that record comes big expectations from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which has the Wildcats way overvalued heading into this showdown with DePaul Saturday.

DePaul is just 9-7 on the season, but this is a veteran bunch that returned four starters from last year and is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country.  What I really like about the Blue Demons is how well they are playing in conference play in the early going.

Indeed, DePaul is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big East action.  It has pulled off three straight upsets.  The Blue Demons won 61-58 as 5-point home dogs to Marquette, 71-68 as 10.5-point home dogs to Xavier, and 70-60 as 10-point road dogs to Creighton to open conference play.  Obviously, if they can beat those three teams, they can certainly stay within 21 of Villanova Saturday.

Jay Wright is 14-28 ATS after playing two consecutive road games as the coach of Villanova.  The Blue Demons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big East foes.  These four returning starters for the Blue Demons have not forgotten their two blowout losses to the Wildcats last year by 26 and 25 points.  They want revenge, and their improvement over last year should have them staying within 21.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland -6.5

The Portland Pilots are a team that I have my eye on.  I don't normally play too many teams from smaller conferences, but there are times when I can find a team and ride them when I know they are going under the radar in a small conference.  The WCC is not the smallest of conferences, but not a lot of folks pay attention to it, so there can be some value had.

Portland returned four starters from last year, and this veteran bunch is off to an 11-5 start this season.  The five losses all came to quality competition, and the Pilots were rather competitive in them.  They lost 55-70 to Valparaiso on a neutral court, 58-65 at home to Oregon State, 73-75 at UNLV as 6-point road dogs, 88-97 at BYU as 10.5-point road dogs, and 75-87 at home to Gonzaga as 12-point dogs.

Portland has gone a very profitable 10-3-1 ATS in all lined games this year as it has consistently been undervalued.  This is a very deep team that has eight players averaging at least 6.4 points per game.  Leading the way has been four double-digit scorers in Alec Wintering (14.1 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kevin Bailey (12.0 ppg), Thomas van der Mars (10.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Volodymyr Gerun (10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg).

From what I've seen from San Francisco thus far, it is certainly fade material.  The Dons are just 7-10 this season with some very ugly losses.  They lost by 15 to Florida Gulf Coast, by 17 to Colorado, by 5 at home to Eastern Washington, by 7 at home to Cal Poly-SLO, by 13 at St. Mary's, by 31 at home against BYU, and by 31 at Gonzaga.

Those two performances against BYU and Gonzaga give these teams a pair of common opponents.  Well, BYU and Gonzaga are considered the two best teams in the WCC.  San Francisco lost by 31 to BYU and by 31 to Gonzaga.  Portland only lost to BYU by 9 and to Gonzaga by 12.  Plus, the Dons could easily have a hangover effect here after losing to both BYU and Gonzaga in their last two games, which are games they were obviously amped up for.  Because of those results, I believe we are getting the Pilots at a discount here as only 6.5-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 0-7 ATS versus good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots this season.  Portland is 6-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Pilots are 7-0 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.  The Dons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pilots.  Bet Portland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Washington State +11.5

These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest.  While Washington State is just 7-7 this season and Washington is 11-3, you can throw the records out the window when these in-state rivals get together.  I'll gladly take the double-digit points with the road underdog Cougars in this one.

There's no denying that Washington State has some bad losses this season, but I love the way that it is playing coming into this game.  It has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall, time and time again getting overlooked by oddsmakers.

It started with a 91-71 win over TX-San Antonio as 8.5-point home favorites.  The Cougars then went on the road and played a competitive game against one of the best teams in the country in a 66-81 loss at Gonzaga as 22.5-point favorites.  They did fail to cover at Santa Clara in a 67-76 loss, but rebounded with back-to-back covers against San Jose State (82-53) and Cal Davis (90-83) at home.  They lost 56-71 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, then upset Cal on the road 69-66 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are clearly playing well coming in.

Washington has some impressive wins this season and started the season 11-0.  However, you just cannot trust the Huskies to lay 11.5 points with the way they have been playing coming into this game.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Tulane 66-57 as 14-point home favorites, lost to Stony Brook 57-62 as 13.5-point home favorites, lost at Cal 75-81 as 1-point road favorites, and lost at Stanford 60-68 as 5.5-point underdogs.  They just aren't playing good basketball heading in.

This has been a very closely-contested series throughout the years.  In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between Washington and Washington State have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Cougars given this 11.5-point spread.  Also, eight of those 11 meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Throw in the 10-1 system on the 11 points or less trend, and these last four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Cougars.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 196.5

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.  First and foremost, when you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

Indeed, 11 of the last 12 meetings between the Pelicans and Grizzlies have seen 194 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 174, 178, 187, 202, 183, 173, 181, 174, 185, 194, 163 and 180 points in their last 12 meetings.  That's an average of 181.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Another reason to love this UNDER is that neither team is in a hurry offensively.  The Grizzlies rank 27th in the league in pace at 94.0 possessions per game.  The Pelicans rank 22nd in pace at 95.1 possessions per contest.  So, fewer possessions equals fewer points as this one will be played at a snail's pace.

New Orleans is 90-56 to the UNDER in its last 146 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than 70%.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off on ESPN Friday night in what I anticipate to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  That has been the case when these teams have gotten together recently, and it will be the case again tonight.

The last three meetings between these teams have seen 190, 144, and 187 combined points for an average of 173.7 combined points per game.  Not counting overtime, 18 of the last 19 meetings between these teams have seen 195 or less combined points.  The only exception was a 197-point effort.  That's a 17-1-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry on offense as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 16th at 96.2 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.5 possessions per contest.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency as well.  Washington ranks 6th at 100.4 points per 100 possessions allowed, while Chicago is 9th at 101.2.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Wizards last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Washington.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +3

The Detroit Pistons should not be an underdog at home to the Atlanta Hawks with the way they are playing right now.  This has been a completely different team since letting go of Josh Smith.  In fact, nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Pistons right now.

The Pistons have averaged 107.9 points and 48.0 percent shooting while allowing 92.9 and 42.8 per contest during a seven-game win streak, which began after they waived veteran forward and ex-Hawk Josh Smith. They scored 94.4 points and shot 41.3 percent per game while giving up 101.1 and 45.8 during a 5-23 start.

"Guys have worked harder, they've been more attentive and a lot more together," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We don't have guys that are getting concerned about who's in the game or their playing time or their shots or anything else. They just want to win games."

While the first five wins of this streak came against suspect competition, all five came by double-digits.  Also, the Pistons have validated their play by going on the road and knocking off back-to-back Western Conference powers.  The beat San Antonio 105-104 as 8-point dogs, and then turned around the next night and beat Dallas 108-95 as 9-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are playing tremendous basketball as well having won 20 of their last 22.  However, this is a huge letdown spot for them.  They are coming off three straight wins over Western Conference powers in Portland, the LA Clippers, and Memphis.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Detroit.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +16

This is a classic situation where BYU comes into this game way overvalued off back-to-back blowout victories.  BYU beat Santa Clara 81-46 on the road followed by San Francisco 99-68 on the road.  Obviously, after those two performances, the betting public is all over them and we have an inflated line as a result.

Pepperdine is a team that can hang with BYU.  The Waves have gone 9-5 this season with all nine of their victories coming by 8 points or more, and eight of those by double-digits.  However, it is how close all of their losses have been that really intrigues me.

The Waves have suffered five losses this season all by 11 points or less.  They lost by 11 at Iowa, by 7 at Arizona State, by 2 to Richmond on a neutral court, by 2 to IUPUI at home, and by 9 at home to St. Mary's.  So, they have not lost a game by more than 11 points this season.

These teams played twice last year in a couple of competitive games.  Pepperdine beat BYU 80-74 as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Waves also covered as 16.5-point dogs in a 72-84 loss at BYU.  With three starters back from that team, the Waves certainly have a good chance to keep this game competitive as well.

Pepperdine is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Waves are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cougars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -8

The SMU Mustangs are one of the better teams in the country that not too many know about.  They returned three starters from a team that should have made the NCAA Tournament last year, but got snubbed.

SMU is off to a 10-4 start this season.  Its four losses have all come against great competition in Gonzaga, Indiana, Arkansas and Cincinnati with three of those coming on the road.  It will return home hungry for a win following a 50-56 loss at Cincinnati last time out.

Memphis is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Josh Pastner's squad returned two starters this year and has had some extremely shaky performances during its 8-5 start.  Its eight wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Indiana State, Bradley, NC Central, USC Upstate, Oral Robers, Western Illinois and Houston.

So, as you can see, the Tigers have not beaten anybody of any relevance.  Their five losses have all come by 8 points or more.  They lost to Wichita State by 15 on a neutral court, lost to Baylor by 24 on a neutral court, lost to SF Austin by 12 at home, lost by Oklahoma State by 18 at home, and lost to Tulane by 8 at home.

SMU is 9-1 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 15.1 points per game.  The Mustangs are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to SMU.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Mustangs.  Take SMU Thursday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Knicks UNDER 194

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks tonight on TNT.  With the state the Knicks are in right now, they'll be held to a low number against a very good Houston defense, which will aid the UNDER.

The Knicks are playing without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, and they just traded away their biggest weapon off the bench in J.R. Smith.  So, they are essentially playing without their three best scorers now, and the results have been staggering here of late.

Indeed, the Knicks have been held to 91 or fewer points in six straight games.  They have averaged just 82.3 points per game in their last six contests.  New York ranks 28th in the league in pace at 92.6 possessions per game, and 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.5 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year.  Indeed, it ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets have only gotten stronger defensively with the addition of Josh Smith from the Pistons.

The Rockets and Knicks have already met once this season, and the result was a low-scoring defensive battle.  The Rockets beat the Knicks 91-86 at home for 177 combined points.  That total set was at 191, and both Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith played in that game.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 PPG differential or worse) are 71-37 (65.7%) since 1996.

Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games this season.  New York is 10-2 to the UNDER as a home underdog this season.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Rockets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Knicks last 22 home games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pacers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Indiana +11

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued as double-digit favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.  They also could be caught looking ahead to Cleveland Friday.

Quietly, the Indiana Pacers have been playing some great basketball to get back into the playoff hunt.  They have gone a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are 7-5 straight up during this stretch with all five of their losses coming by 10 points or less, and four of those coming by 3 points or fewer.  You have to go all the way back to December 12th at Toronto (by 12) to find the last time they lost a game by more than 10 points.

Indiana has had Golden State's number in recent meetings.  The Pacers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors.  Their three losses during this stretch came by 2, 11 and 2 points.  So, they have not lost by more than 11 points in any of their last eight meetings with the Warriors.

The Pacers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.    Indiana is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.  Indiana is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Kings UNDER 212

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that does not come close to touching 212 combined points.

One look at the recent history between these teams tells the story.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder and Kings have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.

They have combined for 196, 194, 199, 175, 201, 192, 199 and 200 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 194.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 212. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  OKC is 12-2 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game way overvalued due to having lost 12 straight games.  The betting public sees that and wants nothing to do with them, creating some nice line value for us to take advantage.

The Timberwolves have not quit as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games, which have all been by 13 points or less as they have been competitive in all six of them.  They will certainly show up to play tonight considering this game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

This is a very tough spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just went into Milwaukee and won 102-96 last night, and I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Phoenix very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, the Timberwolves are 4-3 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Suns.  Also, their three losses during this stretch have come by 7, 1 and 1 points.  So, the Timberwolves have not lost to the Suns by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.

The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland PK

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  Yes, they have moved up to the No. 11 ranking in the country after their 14-1 start, but I believe they should be ranked higher with what I've seen from this team.

Maryland has already beaten some very good teams in impressive fashion.  It beat Iowa State 72-63 on a neutral court as 5-point dogs, Oklahoma State 73-64 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and Michigan State 68-66 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

Head coach Mark Turgeon easily has his best team yet and has done a tremendous job in recruiting.  Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  Dez Wells (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (14.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg) are two returning starters who have upped their games this year.  Wells has only been healthy for eight games this season, making their 14-1 start that much more impressive.

Illinois is a team that came into the season overvalued due to having five returning starters.  It is off to just a 10-5 start and is now down two starters due to injury.  Tracy Abrams (10.7 ppg) is out for the season with a knee injury, while Rayvonte Rice (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) is out four-to-six weeks with a broken hand suffered in practice. 

Considering Rice leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is one of only two double-digits scorers for the Illini, his loss is huge.  This game against Maryland will be the first game that the Illini will have been without Rice this season, which is going to be very difficult for them.  Rice also leads the team in 3-point shooting at 48.3%.  He shoots 51.5% from the field and 80.3% from the line.  His loss cannot be overstated.

I would argue that Illinois doesn't have an impressive win all season.  Its 10 wins have come against Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampton, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  It has lost to Miami, Villanova, Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State all by 7 points or more, including the 61-77 loss at Ohio State last time out.

Illinois is 4-17 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1997.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Illini are 0-6 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Illini are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet Maryland Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +15

The Duke Blue Devils come into this game way overvalued due to their perfect 13-0 record and their No. 2 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that they cannot live up to entering ACC play, and they should not be laying 15 points on the road to Wake Forest tonight.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under former Kansas star Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons got off to a very shaky start, but I love the way they are playing here of late, even against some quality competition.

Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 50-63 loss to Florida as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Deacons then beat Bucknell 60-53 at home, Richmond 65-63 on the road, and Princeton 80-66 at home.

However, it was the most recent showing that has me high on the Demon Deacons.  They only lost 76-85 at home to Louisville as 12.5-point underdogs.  They show 52.8% against the Cardinals, who like Duke, are a highly ranked team and one of the best in the country.

Wake Forest has played Duke extremely tough at home in recent years.  Indeed, the Demon Deacons are 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Blue Devils.  They won 82-72 last year as 12.5-point underdogs, lost 70-75 as 13.5-point dogs in 2013, and lost 71-79 as 12-point dogs in 2011.  They always bring their best effort when facing Duke at home.

The home team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Duke is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine vs. ACC foes.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Wake Forest.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The 76ers just recently returned home from a brutal seven-game road trip.  They won their first two games at Orlando and at Miami, but then proceeded to lose five straight all on the West Coast to Portland, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix and the LA Clippers.

After losing those five straight, the 76ers were undervalued in their first game back home as 4.5-point dogs to the Cavaliers.  Well, they won that game outright 95-92, and I believe they have an excellent chance to beat the Milwaukee Bucks outright tonight as well.

Milwaukee is in a very tough spot here.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  It went into New York and won 95-82 on Sunday, but then lost 96-102 at home to Phoenix last night.  This team is running on fumes now and won't have much to give against the 76ers tonight.

Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 over the last three seasons.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 visits to Philadelphia.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Central Division foes.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Davidson +10

The Davidson Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  That couldn't be more evident than by their 7-2 ATS record in lined games.  Once again, this team is not getting the respect they deserve as 10-point underdogs to VCU.

Obviously, the betting public knows all about VCU because it made a Final Four appearance a few years back.  That kind of thing sticks with the betting public and keeps the Rams overvalued for years.  They have gone just 6-7 ATS this season and are laying too many points once again tonight.

Davidson is 10-2 this season.  Its two losses have come against two of the best teams in the country.  It lost 72-90 at North Carolina as 13.5-point underdogs, and 72-83 at Virginia as 18-point dogs.  That loss to the Cavaliers was pretty impressive.

It also gives these teams a common opponent.  VCU lost at home to Virginia by a final of 57-74 despite being 1.5-point favorites in that contest.  The Rams have won six straight games since that defeat, but mostly against soft competition.  That six-game winning streak has them overvalued as well.

The Wildcats are a sensational 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  VCU is 0-7 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make at least 72% of their attempts over the last three seasons.  Davidson is 12-1 ATS off two straight games where it had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Davidson is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Davidson Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers represent my favorite play in the Big Ten for the month of January.  They are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes Tuesday.

The Golden Gophers come into this game highly motivated for a victory so they do not drop to 0-3 in the Big Ten.  That's because they are 0-2 with road losses at Purdue (68-72, OT) and at Maryland (58-70). 

This will be their first Big Ten home game.  That's going to make a huge difference for the Golden Gophers because they are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, and 5-1 ATS, outscoring teams by an average of 27.4 points per game.  All four of their losses this year have come on the road.

Ohio State (12-3) has done almost all of its damage at home this year, going 12-1 at home compared to 0-2 on the road.  The Buckeyes did lose to Iowa 65-71 at home in their Big Ten opener, but bounced back with a 77-61 home win over Illinois last time out.  That was their best win of the season as they have beaten up on a very soft schedule to this point.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  The home team dominated both meetings last year.  Ohio State won 64-46 at home, while Minnesota won 63-53 at home for a pair of double-digit victories.

The Gophers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 home games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Buckeyes are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Big Ten games.  The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  Ohio State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Gophers.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game with San Antonio.  It just so happened that it occurred right in line with the release of Josh Smith, who just seems to be a cancer wherever he goes.  The Pistons have been playing much freer and looser since Smith's departure.

The Pistons are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games since losing their highest-paid player in Smith.  They have won those five games by an average of 18.2 points per game, so it's not like they are just sneaking by opponents.  They are scoring 14.0 more points and surrendering 10.9 fewer per game without Smith.

"I'm not going to say that teams are afraid to play us - there are several teams in the NBA who scare people more than we do," head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "But we're playing very well right now."

The Spurs (21-14) just aren't the team that won the NBA title last year.  They have been battling injuries all season.  NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard remains out with a hand injury and will miss his 11th consecutive game.  Tony Parker has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is questionable to return tonight.

San Antonio has lost seven of its last 11 games overall to really be just a mediocre team.  All four of its wins during this stretch came by single-digits with a 7-point win over the Clippers, a 4-point win over the Rockets, a 2-point win over the Pelicans, and a 9-point win over the Wizards.

Detroit is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games off two straight wins by 10 or more points.  The Pistons are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Detroit is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or greater.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 6-2 ATS in its last eight visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* ACC Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech +10

The Florida State Seminoles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as double-digit favorites in this game against Virginia Tech.  I'll gladly take the points in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Buzz Williams was one of the best coaching hires of the offseason.  He did big things at Marquette in turning that program around before coming over to Virginia Tech.  He has shown over the years how to get the best out of his teams.

Williams has done a good job with this team in leading the Hokies to an 8-6 record.  This team is much better than an 8-6 squad because four of their six losses have come by 3 points or less, or by a combined 9 points.  That's how close this is to being a 12-2 squad right now.

That includes a 66-68 loss to Syracuse on Saturday as 9.5-point underdogs.  Obviously, if the Hokies can play with a team like Syracuse, they can certainly play with Florida State, which also boasts an identical 8-6 record this season.

Florida State suffered a huge blow when it lost its best player in Aaron Thomas for the season due to eligibility issues.  The Seminoles have lost to the likes of Northeastern,  Providence (by 24), UMass, Nebraska, Notre Dame (by 20) and Mississippi State this season.

The reason the Seminoles are getting so much respect from oddsmakers is because they beat Florida 65-63 as 7-point home underdogs on December 30th.  That was a good win, but Florida is down this season, and that game is always played closer to the vest between these in-state rivals.  Anything can happen when they get together.

There are a few performances at home by the Seminoles this year that show they are extremely vulnerable.  They only beat The Citadel 66-55 as 20-point favorites, beat Charleston Southern 58-47 in a game that didn't even have a line, and beat Stetson 63-59 in another unlined game.  They also lost to Northeastern 73-76 as 9.5-point home favorites.

Florida State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 65 or fewer points in four straight games.  FSU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Hokies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC foes.  Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +10.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are showing great value as double-digit underdogs to the Iowa Hawkeyes Monday.  After winning 11 of their final 14 regular season games last year, the Huskers went to the NCAA Tournament for the first time ssince 1998.

They returned four starters from that team with big expectations this year.  Obviously, they are not happy with their 8-5 start up to this point, but because they have underachieved they are clearly undervalued entering conference play.  All five of their losses have come by 10 points or less, too.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have also underachieved from their lofty preseason expectations.  They are just 10-4 right now, but they are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their 71-65 upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten opener.  This is a team that has suffered three of four losses by 12 points or more.

This has been a very closely-contested series since Nebraska joined the Big 12.  In fact, four of the five meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less with Nebraska winning two of them in upsets.  This may be the best team Nebraska has had yet, too.

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a conference loss.  Iowa is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 when playing on 5 or 6 days of rest.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Iowa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Big Ten foes.  The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Nebraska Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  This was one of my sleeper teams in the Western Conference, and at 17-16, they sit just 1.5 games out of the No. 8 spot in the West.  If they were playing in the East, the Pelicans would challenge for a conference title.

New Orleans comes into this game with Washington playing some of its best basketball of the season.  It has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes home wins over fellow West playoff contenders San Antonio (97-90), Phoenix (110-106) and Houston (111-83).

Washington knows all about how tough the West is because it has lost three straight road games to Western Conference foes.  It lost 87-114 at Dallas, 102-109 at Oklahoma City, and 92-101 at San Antonio in its last three games overall.  Another loss here is likely, and I expect it to be by more than 3 points.

The Pelicans are going to be out for revenge here.  They will be looking to put an end to a six-game losing streak to Washington in this series.  That includes an 80-83 road loss as 4-point underdogs in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on November 29th.

New Orleans is 11-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game.  Washington is just 8-7 on the road where it is getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  The Pelicans are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 home games revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Wizards are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with New Orleans Monday.

20* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +8

The No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country in 2014-15.  They have opened 14-1 this season with their only loss coming on a neutral court to Providence (74-75) by a single point.

The Fighting Irish returned four starters from last season, including Jerian Grant, who missed all but the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  He was their best player last year as he averaged 19.0 points and 6.2 assists per game before getting hurt.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 17.9 points and 6.2 assists.  Zach Auguste (14.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Demetrius Jackson (14.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Pat Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg) combine with Grant to form one of the best starting lineups in the nation.

North Carolina has proven to be vulnerable this year against some of the better teams that it has faced.  It already has three losses on the year.  It lost at Kentucky 70-84, at home to Iowa 55-60, and on a neutral court to Butler 66-74.  It has no business laying this many points to a better Notre Dame squad.

Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Notre Dame Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Josh Smith effect is the real deal.  He waived and signed by Houston, and the Detroit Pistons proceed to go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall.  He was simply a cancer on this team, and it's been amazing to watch what the Pistons have done without him.

Not only are they winning, they are dominating.  All four of their wins during this streak came by 10 points or more with three of those coming on the road.  They beat Indiana (119-109) at home, and Cleveland (103-80), Orlando (109-86) and New York (97-81) on the road.  The Pistons are winning by an average of 18.0 points.  They are averaging 12.6 points more than they did before the shake-up and are allowing 12.1 fewer.

Extending their win streak to five for the first time since Dec. 4-12, 2009, certainly seems possible against the Kings (14-19), who have allowed an average of 111.7 points over a nine-game stretch in which each opponent has reached the century mark.  The last time they didn't allow 100 was Dec. 13, when the Pistons won 95-90 in Sacramento for their 9th victory in the last 10 meetings.

Sacramento is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Kings are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Kings are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Detroit.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* Pac-12 Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +12

The 10th-ranked Utah Utes are off to a great 11-2 start this season.  However, with this start comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are clearly overvalued here as 12-point favorites against the UCLA Bruins tonight.

UCLA (8-6) has taken a step back from last year.  In fact, it is mired in a four-game losing streak, and it has failed to cover the spread in six straight coming in.  That obviously has the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bruins, which is why they are showing such great value here as it's highly unlikely that they fail to cover a 7th straight.

A closer look at their losing streak reveals some elite competition.  They lost at home to Gonzaga, on a neutral court to Kentucky, and on the road to both Alabama (50-56) and Colorado (56-62) by 6 points each.  They were an underdog in all four games, so they were expected to lose each.

The Utes are a tired team right now.  This will be their 3rd game in 6 days, which is very rare for college teams.  Meanwhile, this will be UCLA's 2nd game in the last 7 days, so it will be well-rested and ready to go.  Not to mention the Bruins will be more motivated for a win today than they have been all season as they try and end this rare four-game skid.

Plays on an underdog (UCLA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in January games are 116-67 (63.4%) ATS since 1997.  UCLA has won three of its last four meetings with Utah with its lone loss coming by 5 points at Utah last season.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line -105

The Minnesota Timberwolves are highly motivated to put an end to their 10-game losing streak tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.  They have been really close to ending this streak here of late, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall that includes a 4-point loss to Denver, a 6-point loss to Utah and a 3-point loss to Sacramento.

That makes this a revenge game for the Timberwolves, who lost 94-100 at Utah as 7-point underdogs on December 30th.  Playing the Jazz less than a week later, the Timberwolves are simply going to want this game more.  I look for them to put an end to their losing streak with a home victory Saturday night.

This is a very tough spot for Utah.  It fought back from a huge deficit against Atlanta last night, only to lose by a final of 92-98 as 4.5-point home underdogs.  Now, these tired Jazz are going to have a tough time matching the energy level of the young Timberwolves, especially considering they just beat them less than a week ago.

The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Minnesota.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Florida) +8

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15 under veteran head coach Jim Larranaga.  They are off to a 10-3 start that has included wins over Florida, Charlotte (twice) and Illinois among others.

I believe the Hurricanes coming into their ACC opener with Virginia undervalued because they let their guard down here of late.  They have lost three of their last five games, but were able to get back on track with a 67-40 beat down of College of Charleston as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  Look for them to build off of that performance at home here.

Virginia enters the ACC opener overvalued due to its perfect 12-0 start that has earned it the No. 3 ranking in the country.  Obviously, with an unbeaten start and a No. 3 ranking come expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  These expectations are just very tough to live up to with the Cavaliers laying eight points on the road to Miami.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  In fact, Virginia is 0-6 all-time at Miami having never won there.  While the Cavaliers may end that trend, they're not going to do so in blowout fashion.  Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Raptors/Warriors Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -4.5

This is a matchup between the top team from the Eastern Conference in the Toronto Raptors (24-8) against the top team from the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors (25-5).  I'll gladly side with the top team from the West at home as only 4.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Toronto would not be anywhere close to first place if it played in the stacked West.  What the Warriors have done up to this point is very impressive given that they have played the much tougher schedule.  To go 25-5 is no small feat in the West.

I was able to fade the Warriors with some success following their 16-game winning streak as they were overvalued.  However, after going just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Warriors are back to being undervalued here tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites.

The Raptors, on the other hand, are overvalued after winning eight of their last 10 games overall coming in.  Well, they are a tired team right now because they are in the midst of a 6-game road trip.  This is Game No. 5 of the trip that has seen them lose at Chicago 120-129 and at Portland 97-102.

Golden State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings.  The Warriors are 9-0 in their last nine home meetings with the Raptors dating back to 2004 with all nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +17.5

USC came into this season undervalued after going just 2-16 in Pac-12 play in Jamie Enfield's first season on the job last year.  Remember, Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 two years ago, and he has a very talented freshman class leading the way at USC in 2014-15 as he's starting to get his players in place.

The Trojans are off to a respectable 8-4 start this season entering conference play while going 7-5 ATS in the process.  Three of their four losses have come by 12 points or less as they have only been beaten by more than 17.5 points one time, which is the spread for this game against Utah.

What really stood out to me about USC's 12 games up to this point is that it they have actually played their best two games in their only two true road games.  The Trojans beat New Mexico 66-54 as 9-point road underdogs, and they also beat Boston College 75-71 as 7-point road dogs.  That's a great sign heading into this game.

Utah is a team I had circled as undervalued coming into 2014-15.  It barely missed the NCAA Tournament last year and lost a lot of close games.  Well, it clearly has been undervalued up to this point as it has gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.

However, I believe it's now time to fade the Utes as they are overvalued entering conference play after this fast start.  They are also currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country, and with a Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to.

Utah did beat USC 84-66 at home and 79-71 on the road last year.  That 18-point home win is a little concerning, but not when you consider that there's no question the Trojans are vastly improved over a year ago.  Utah is also slightly improved, but not as much as the Trojans are, so they should be able to stay within 17.5 this time around.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (allowing less than 40%), dominant rebounding team (at least plus-6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

USC is 7-0 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons.  It is actually beating these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  Utah does play at a very slow pace, which works in our favor here as it will be tough for the Utes to win by 18 or more because of it.  Also, the Utes are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points.  Take USC Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +4.5

At 23-8 on the season and in second place in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are obviously off to a very surprising start this year.  However, with that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Hawks simply cannot live up to.  They have no business laying 4.5 points on the road to a Western Conference opponent as the Hawks would just be a mediocre team if they were playing in the West.

The Utah Jazz (11-21) got off to a horrible start this season, but I really like the way they are playing coming into this one.  They have gone 5-2 straight up in their last seven games overall, and one of their losses was a 4-point loss at the LA Clippers as 12-point underdogs.

The five wins have been very impressive.  They went into Miami and won 105-87 as 3.5-point dogs, won at Orlando 101-94 as 4-point dogs, won at Memphis 97-91 as 8-point dogs, beat the 76ers 88-71 at home as 10-point favorites, and beat the Timberwolves 100-94 at home as 7-point favorites.  The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.

The Jazz are going to be out for revenge on the Hawks considering they have lost seven straight in this series.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 5 points, too.  That includes a 97-100 road loss in their first meeting of 2014-15 as 7-point underdogs back on November 12th.

Atlanta is 8-27 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on two days' rest.  Utah is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games after four straight games where it outrebounded its opponent by 5 or more boards.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game overvalued as road favorites over the Orlando Magic.  Brooklyn (15-16) is getting a lot of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers after winning five of its last six games overall while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

A closer look at this stretch shows that the Nets have beaten some very suspect competition.  Four of their wins came against Detroit (by 5), Denver (by 6), and Sacramento (by 8) at home, as well as Boston (by 2) on the road.  Yes, the Nets did beat the Bulls on the road by 14 last time out, but the Bulls were playing a second of a back-to-back and were tired.  The Nets are now in a letdown spot after that big win as well.

The Magic are just 13-22 this season, but they have gone a profitable 19-16 ATS because they have lost so many close games this year.  They are starting to turn some of those close losses into wins here of late, and I really believe this team will be a profitable one to back going forward.

Orlando has won three of its last five games overall.  It beat Boston at home while going on the road and topping both Charlotte and Miami for its three victories during this stretch.  I also believe the Magic are undervalued due to their 23-point loss to the red-hot Pistons last time out, which the betting public is putting too much stock in.  The Magic were playing their 4th game in 5 days and had nothing left in the tank.  With two days off since that loss, they'll come back fresh and ready to go tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Brooklyn and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team has won each of the last six meetings.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Brooklyn.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder get back Kevin Durant tonight from a six-game absence due to an ankle injury.  He practiced fully Monday and Tuesday and head coach Scott Brooks said he looked "lively" in practice and is ready to go.

Oklahoma City will be highly motivated for a win tonight considering, at 15-17, it is looking up at Phoenix (18-15) for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  I look for the Thunder to roll the Suns tonight, especially given the tough situation that Phoenix is in.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing to the Pelicans 106-110 last night.  Meanwhile, the Thunder come in well-rested and ready to go as they've had two days off since last playing on Sunday.  They will bring more energy to this game in front of a raucous home crowd that is anticipating Durant's return.

I also believe the Suns are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I faded them with success last night by backing the Pelicans, and I'll be fading them again tonight.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so they have been beating up on some soft competition to say the least.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight.  The Suns have lost 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder have won seven straight home meetings with the Suns by 24, 7, 31, 18, 11, 10 and 4 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.8 points per game in their last eight home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +19

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value today as 19-point underdogs to the Wisconsin Badgers in their Big Ten opener.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season and just aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today.

Penn State is a legitimate NCAA tournament contender with four starters back from last year and it's 12-1 start.  It's only loss came in overtime to a very good Charlotte team by a final of 97-106 earlier this season.  It has reeled off 10 straight wins since.

Wisconsin is way overvalued here due to its 12-1 start and its No. 4 national ranking.  The Badgers are certainly one of the better teams in the country, but the Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Badgers are considered the best team in the conference.

Wisconsin hasn't exactly blown out the opposition this year when facing quality teams such as Penn State.  It is 3-1 against the likes of Georgetown (68-65), Oklahoma (69-56), Duke (70-80) and California (68-56), not beating any of those teams by more than 13 points.

What I really love about this play as well is the fact that the Nittany Lions will be the more prepared team.  They last played on December 22nd in a 69-49 home win over Dartmouth, so they have had over a week to get ready for Wisconsin.  The Badgers last played on December 28th in a 68-56 home win over Buffalo, so they have only had two days to prepare for Penn State.

Penn State has played Wisconsin very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.  As a result, Penn State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin since 2010.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans (15-15) are staring up at the Phoenix Suns (18-14) for that No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  That makes this a very important game for them when you figure that these two teams are going to be battling for that 8th spot all season, and it could come down to a tiebreaker.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my book.  It has an excellent lineup that can beat you a number of different ways.  Anthony Davis (24.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) is having an MVP-caliber season.  Tyreke Evans (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.3 rpg) and Jrue Holiday (15.5 ppg, 7.2 apg) create shots for their teammates like Ryan Anderson (15.3 ppg), who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the game for a big man.

Not only will the Pelicans be motivated to try and pull a game closer to the Suns for that 8th seed, they are also out for revenge in this game as well.  They lost all four meetings with the Suns last year and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get on the board with a win in the first meeting between these teams of the 2014-15 season.

The Suns could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Well, those six wins came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so it's not like they are beating up on high-quality opponents.  It's now time to fade the Suns.

New Orleans is 9-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 5.6 points per game.  It is scoring 107.9 points at home on 47.9% shooting.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take New Orleans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Cleveland Cavaliers as underdogs this season.  I'm going to take advantage Tuesday as 4-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cavaliers could not possibly be more undervalued at any point in the season than they are right now.  They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games overall, and they have lost two of their last three in ugly fashion to Miami (91-101) and Detroit (80-103).

Because of this recent stretch of poor play, I look for the Cavaliers to come out highly motivated for a victory in this game tonight.  Also, they just lost recently at home to Atlanta 98-127 on December 17th in what was their worst loss of the year.  They obviously haven't forgotten less than two weeks later and will be out for revenge in a big way.

Conversely, Atlanta could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has won 15 of its last 17 games overall while going 12-4-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to jump on this team.  I'm looking to fade them when this happens.

Kyrie Irving is expected to return from a two-game absence.  A knee injury has kept him out of action ever since the 4th quarter of a loss to Miami on Christmas Day.  He missed the teams 98-89 win at Orlando and the team's 80-103 loss to Detroit. 

Having a healthy Irving back will make a huge difference for this team going forward.  Even if for whatever reason he doesn't play tonight like he's expected to, Lebron James and company have enough to get it done.

Atlanta is 5-17 ATS when playing with two days of rest over the last two seasons.  The Hawks are 20-37 ATS in their last 57 home games following one or more consecutive wins.  The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams.  I look for them to run away with this one.

The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines.  Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.

I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either.  It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.

That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents.  Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses.  Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.

This has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois.  Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.

Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.  Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7

The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year.  They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well.  Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.

Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule.  Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa.  Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.

The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3).  That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent.  Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past.  Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State.  They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years.  In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.

Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24

This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State.  TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.

TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already.  However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.

This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs.  This is a huge lookahead spot for them.  They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game.  As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.

Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State.  However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively. 

Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points.  That includes their last two games against some very good competition.  They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs.  They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.

Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road.  The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.

TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State.  Take Tennessee State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Pacers UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this battle between Eastern Conference Central Division rivals in Chicago and Indiana.  These teams are very familiar with one another, which certainly favors the defense and has in recent meetings between these teams.

Indeed, the Bulls and Pacers have combined for 189 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have combined for 189, 166, 170, 204, 177, 171 and 189 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 180.9 points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

From a matchup perspective, the under is a good bet here as well.  Both teams love to play at slow paces.  The Pacers rank 21st in pace at 95.2 possessions per game and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.9 possessions per game.

Both teams have been extremely efficient defensively as well.  They both rank in the top 10 as the Pacers are 8th in allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls are 9th allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - off two or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) to the UNDER since 1996.  Tthe UNDER is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Mavericks UNDER 211.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder square off Sunday in a game that I look to be very low-scoring in comparison to the total set of 211.5 points.  As a result, I'll back the UNDER believing the oddsmakers have set the bar too high for this game.

Since the Mavericks traded for Rajon Rondo, they actually have gotten worse offensively, but have been better on defense.  That was expected considering Rondo doesn't have the best offensive game outside of his ability to pass the ball, but he is one of the better defenders for his position in the NBA.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring these games have been between the Mavs and Thunder in recent meetings.  In their last 16 meetings, they have finished with 208 or fewer combined points 13 times.  The only three times they didn't combine for 208 or less, those games went into overtime. 

Those three were tied 111-111, 105-105, and 98-98 at the end of regulation.  So, not counting overtime, Oklahoma City and Dallas have combined for 210 or fewer points in 15 of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 211.5 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5

I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season.  I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.

So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times.  However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them. 

I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out.  It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game.  They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.

Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one.  The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year.  They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year.  Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.

I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses.  They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs.  They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss.  Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me.  Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.

South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game.  UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court.  The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years.  Bet South Dakota State Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Bulls UNDER 202

This is my favorite total in an East vs. West battle in the NBA over the past seven days.  I look for a very low-scoring game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Chicago Bulls tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this one as it's likely that neither team reaches 100 points.

Both of these teams play at pretty slow paces this season.  The Pelicans rank 21st in the league in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest.  Chicago remains a solid defensive team, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency at 101.9 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What really stood out to me about this game was how these teams have fared head-to-head in recent years.  The Bulls and Pelicans have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. 

They have combined for 167, 206, 183, 171, 194, 157, 162 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 202.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 10 seasons.  We're seeing an average combined score of 180.3 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets UNDER 190.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.  I look for both teams to struggle offensively in this one, which has been the case for both of these teams all year.

Orlando is putting up just 93.7 points per game this season while ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.9 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte is scoring 95.8 points per game while ranking 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

What I really like about this play is that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Indeed, the Hornets rank 24th in pace at 94.5 possessions per game.  The Magic rank 23rd in pace at 94.7 possessions per contest. 

This game will be played in the half court with few fast break opportunities as both teams like to slow it down and feed their big men in Al Jefferson for the Hornets and Nikola Vucevic for the Magic.  They each try to get their big men a touch every possession down the floor, which eats up shot clocks and is very beneficial for under backers.

Orlando is 37-14 to the UNDER in its last 51 road games.  The Magic are 14-2 to the UNDER in their last 16 road games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  Charlotte is 18-8 to the UNDER as a home favorites of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Magic last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Hornets last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6

No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday.  This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire.  I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

This line has gotten out of control.  It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move.  The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.

Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule.  Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court.  This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.

Louisville is the real deal this year.  It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more.  That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74).  Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.

These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament.  That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.

Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Portland Trail Blazers are in the ultimate letdown spot here tonight.  I look for them to fail to bring the kind of effort to the court it's going to take to put away the pesky Philadelphia 76ers by more than 14 points in this one as a result.

Portland is coming off a four-game road trip against New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston and Oklahoma City.  It went an impressive 3-1 on that trip that included a pair of overtime wins over both the Spurs and Thunder.  It's simply going to be hard for them to be motivated in their first game back home following that huge road trip against the West's elite.

The 76ers have won back-to-back road games coming in.  They went into Orlando and won 96-88 as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st, and then went into Miami and won 91-87 as 7.5-point dogs on December 23rd.  In fact, the 76ers have played their best basketball on the road this season as all four of their wins have come away from home.

The 76ers have played the Blazers very tough here in recent meetings.  Indeed, they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers, making for an 11-1 system when factoring in this 14-point spread.  They lost 104-114 at home to the Blazers as 13-point dogs in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 101-99 in Portland as 12-point dogs in their final meeting of 2013-14.

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  It is only losing by 4.6 points per game against these teams.  The 76ers are 79-49 ATS in their last 128 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. 

Portland is 0-10 ATS in hits last 10 home games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  It is losing in these spots by an average of 10.6 points per game.  This trend just goes to show that the Blazers tend to let down at home following a tough stretch of games against really good teams.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 201.5

Greg Popovich was extremely frustrated with his team's performance on Christmas Day in a 106-114 loss to Oklahoma City.  He voiced his frustration in the media, and I look for his team to respond tonight.  Their effort will be at an all-time high, and that will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

That 220 combined point performance last night is a big reason for this inflated line, but it's also due to the fact that the Spurs have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, two of those were triple-overtime games against the Blazers and Grizzlies.  They were tied with the Grizzlies 92-92 at the end of regulation, and tied with the Blazers 97-97 at the end of regulation.  If not for overtime, they'd be 3-3 to the under in their last six.

The Spurs are still one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and that will really show tonight.  They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.7 points per 100 possessions.  Both the Spurs and Pelicans prefer to play at slower paces than league average.  In fact, they are both tied for 19th in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.

What really stood out to me about this under was how low-scoring these games have been between the Spurs and Pelicans.  Indeed, they have combined for 199 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 199, 176, 197 and 196 points in those four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 192.0 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  San Antonio is 91-61 to the UNDER in its last 152 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Lakers/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls tonight.  I look for points for the Lakers to be hard to come by against one of the league's top defenses, and I expect this to be a very low-scoring game in the end as a result.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the head-to-head history of the Lakers and Bulls.  These teams always seem to bring their best efforts defensively when they face one another, and that will be the case against on Christmas Day.

Indeed, the Lakers and Bulls have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings with the UNDER going 7-2 in those contests.  Even that 202-point effort was an overtime game that was tied at 93-93 at the end of regulation last year.  Only 3 out of a possible 18 times in their last nine meetings has one of these teams scored at least 100 points.

The Lakers and Bulls have combined for 178, 202, 171, 178, 175, 172, 189, 183 and 201 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  As you can see, there's a ton of value in backing the UNDER as a result.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, which has them way undervalued as the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  They should be laying more than two points to the Boston Celtics here.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Magic just lost to the Celtics on the road on December 17th less than a week ago.  So, they are going to be out for revenge in this rematch, and I look for them to get it now that they are finally healthy and at full strength.

After all, home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings between the Magic and Celtics, and I look for that trend to continue here tonight.

I also question the motivation and mental state of the Celtics right now.  They just traded away their best player in Rajon Rondo, and these players cannot feel comfortable about it knowing that Danny Ainge is still in full-blown rebuilding mode.

In their first game without Rondo, the Celtics were rolled at Miami 84-100 on Sunday.  They clearly were out of sync in that game without Rondo, and that 16-point loss is really bad when you consider that Miami was playing without Chris Bosh.

Boston is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 3-7 on the road this season.  Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games.  I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests. 

They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.  I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.

To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers.  Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.

George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado.  This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg).  The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced.  Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio.  They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.

The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes.  Take Colorado Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the best teams in the West at 20-8 this season.  They just got even stronger with the addition of Rajon Rondo a few days ago, who helped lead them to a 99-93 home win over San Antonio in his Dallas debut on Saturday. 

The Mavericks are showing excellent value here as only 4-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks Monday.  The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their second game in five days, which has given Rondo extra time to get used to playing on his new team.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to having won 12 of its last 13 games overall while going 10-3 ATS in the process.  The betting public is obviously all over them right now, especially after their back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Houston.  It's going to be very tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers going forward, especially tonight.

Dallas has won five of its last eight meetings with Atlanta with all five of those victories coming by at least 5 points, and four by 8 points or more.  Two of Atlanta's last three wins against Dallas have come by a combined 5 points.  As a result, the Mavs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Hawks as well.

Atlanta has been dominating the Eastern Conference, but it has been a completely different story against the West.  The Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. Western Conference foes.  Dallas is 54-25 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have been waiting for this game since the playoffs.  This will be their first meeting with the Blazers since losing to them in the first round of the 2013-14 playoffs in six games.  There will be no questioning their motivation in this one, especially considering they have lost two straight coming in.

Portland comes in way overvalued after having won each of its last five games overall, including two wins against the defending champion Spurs, who were short-handed both times they faced the Blazers.  While the Blazers are one of the better teams in the West, they are simply getting too much respect here as short road underdogs.

All four of Portland's wins over Houston in the playoffs came by 7 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Houston has still won seven of its last 12 meetings with Portland with all seven of those wins coming by 5 points or more, including five by double-digits.

Portland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off a game where it was called for 13 or less fouls.  The Blazers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Take the Rockets Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome in Eastern Conference-leading Toronto (22-6) to the United Center Monday.  They will be out to prove that they are the best team in the East in this one.

Helping their cause is the fact that they are expected to be at nearly full strength for this one.  Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose are all listed as probable.  Meanwhile, Toronto remains without second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).

The Raptors come in overvalued having won six straight games, all against teams with losing records.  They also come in extremely tired.  This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 6th game in 9 days for the Raptors, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Chicago has had two days' rest coming in after last playing on Friday, where it beat Memphis 103-97 on the road.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on UConn -7

The defending champion UConn Huskies have not gotten off to the start that they wanted at 4-4.  Due to this poor start, they are undervalued at this point of the season.  They certainly aren't as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate.

UConn has lost two games on buzzer-beating three points against Texas (54-55) and Yale (44-45).  Its other two losses came against two of the better teams in the country in West Virginia (68-78) and Duke (66-56).

I have been impressed with the Huskies in a couple of their wins with a 65-57 win over College of Charleston and a 75-64 triumph over Dayton, both on neutral courts.  While this game against Columbia is technically on a neutral court, there's no question the Huskies will have the home-court advantage since it's being played in Bridgeport, CT.

Columbia is a team that comes in overvalued due to its 6-3 start and its five returning starters.  Well, it lost one of those starters to a season-ending foot injury, and that was last year's leading scorer in Alex Rosenberg (16.0 ppg).

The Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they played Kentucky tough in a 10-point road loss as 26-point underdogs.  Well, that was the only quality opponent they have faced this season.  They have lost to both Stony Brook and Loyola-MD, while their six wins have come against Wagner, Lehigh, Farleigh Dickinsion, American, Bucknell and Hofstra.

The Huskies are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight off their slow start and their 10-point loss to Duke on December 18th.  Columbia last played on December 20th and will only have one day to prepare for UConn.  The Huskies have a big edge in rest and preparation coming into this one as a result.

UConn is 10-1 ATS after playing its last game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two years.  Columbia is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win.  UConn is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.  Take UConn Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12.5

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 21-6.  They own the best record in the Eastern Conference, but with that strong performance up to this point comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are way overvalued tonight.

The New York Knicks own one of the worst records in the NBA at 5-23.  While that is terrible and unexpected, I have no doubt that the Knicks are better than their record.  They are also way undervalued right now due to that record as they are catching a whopping 12.5 points against their division rivals today.

A whopping 18 of New York's 23 losses have come by 11 points or less.  That includes 13 losses by 7 points or fewer.  This team is going to be showing great value going forward as a result, especially with the recent return of Carmelo Anthony from a knee injury.  He is expected to play again today, and Amare Stoudemire is also returning from a one-game absence.

This is a rivalry game since these teams play in the same division.  They just played a few days ago as the Raptors beat the Knicks on the road 95-90 in overtime on December 14th.  The Knicks will be out for revenge in this one, while the Raptors may fail to show up after just recently beating the Knicks.

This is also a lookahead spot for Toronto.  It has a huge stretch of six road games coming up that starts tomorrow.  It goes to Chicago tomorrow and will be looking ahead to that game.  The upcoming road slate includes games against the Bulls, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Warriors and Suns.  That's certainly something to be looking forward to for the Raptors.

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  New York is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Toronto has beaten New York by more than 12 points just once in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Sunday.

20* Harvard/Virginia CBB Sunday Early Riser on Harvard +10

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home before reeling off three straight double-digits victories over Northeastern (60-46), Vermont (64-52) and Boston (70-56).

Saunders (20.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) has proven to be one of the best players in the entire country this year.  Plus, the team has a ton of balance.  Chambers (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg) and Moundou-Missi (9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg) are the other two returning starters players playing well.  Corbin Miller (8.5 ppg) and Jonah Travis (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have also offered key contributions.

Virginia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  Due to its 10-0 start that has included a 6-2 ATS record in lined games, the betting public is quick to jump on the Cavaliers.  Yes, they won the ACC last year and are still a very talented team this year with what they have back, but they should not be laying 10 points to a Harvard team that is one of the best that they have faced all season.

This is an excellent spot for the Crimson as well.  They just finished up finals, so their minds will be free and clear.  Throw in the fact that their last game was on December 8th 13 days ago, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on the court.  So, they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for Virginia, which is a huge advantage.  They'll also be highly motivated to face at Top 25 team.

Virginia, on the other hand, has not had hardly any time at all to prepare for Harvard.  It last played on Thursday, December 18th in a 70-54 home win over Cleveland State as a 17-point favorite.  It has only had two days to prepare for Harvard, which is a massive disadvantage considering the Crimson have had two weeks.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two teams who don't shoot many 3 point shots (

15* CBB Saturday Night UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +2.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-1 with their only loss coming in double-overtime to VCU on the road by a final of 87-93 last time out as 7-point underdogs.  That was not a bad loss at all as VCU is one of the better teams in the country.  I have no doubt that UNI is the better team in this one and will pull off the upset over Iowa.

The Hawkeyes just have not impressed me at all this year.  They are off to an 8-3 start, and while it has come against a decently tough schedule, their three losses just stand out like a sore thumb.  Especially their 57-71 loss to Texas at Madison Square Garden and their 75-90 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  Their only good win came against North Carolina, which shot 27.9% in the loss to essentially hand the Hawkeyes the win.

UNI has played Iowa very tough through the years, and 2014 will be no exception.  The Panthers and Hawkeyes have actually split their last eight meetings with the Panthers winning four and the Hawkeyes winning four.  Well, this may be the best team UNI has had in the history of its program.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  UNI is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  These five trends combined for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

This is a great spot to fade the Portland Trail Blazers and back the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Blazers are running on fumes right now with the schedule they have faced coming into this game and will have nothing left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Adding to that is the fact that they played a triple-overtime game against San Antonio last night.  I just can't see them putting forth a much effort in this game at all.

New Orleans comes on fresh after having yesterday off following its 99-90 win at Houston on Thursday.  The Pelicans have now won five of their last seven games overall to climb back above .500 at 13-12.  Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP-caliber level to lead the way.  It's only losses have come to Golden State (122-128, OT) and Dallas (107-112) during this seven-game stretch.

Home-court advantage has been enormous in this series as the home team has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between New Orleans and Portland.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Portland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine meetings with New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Villanova FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Syracuse +12

While it's clear that Syracuse is not as dominant as it has been in year's past, getting 12 points here with the Orange is simply a gift from the oddsmakers.  They are clearly way undervalued right now after their slow start to the season, while Villanova is way overvalued.

The Orange are just 6-3 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point already.  They lost to California, Michigan and St. John's, but beat Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  You can bet that head coach Jim Boeheim is using this slow start as a great teaching point for his players, and this young squad is only going to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.

Villanova is clearly one of the best teams in the country.  I have even backed the Wildcats this season on a couple of occasions.  However, with a 10-0 start that includes a 7-1-1 ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  The betting public is all over the Wildcats after five straight covers, and this number has been set so high that it's now time to fade them.

Syracuse has owned Villanova as the Wildcats have consistently struggled against the Orange's size in recent history.  The Orange are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Wildcats with their only loss coming in overtime (75-71) on the road last year.  The Wildcats may win this game, but it's not going to be by double-digits.

Plays against a favorite (VILLANOVA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 97-56 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +14

The Charlotte 49ers should not be catching 14 points against Georgetown today.  With four returning starters and off to a solid 6-4 start, the 49ers have shown me enough to know that they can easily stay within this spread and give the Hoyas a run for their money.

Charlotte has been highly competitive all season.  It has beaten some good teams like Penn State and South Carolina.  Three of its four losses came by single-digits against some very good competition.  It did lose to Miami 58-77, but also lost to Miami 74-77, at Davidson (86-91) and on a neutral court against George Washington (70-78).

Georgetown is way overvalued here.  While the Hoyas are improved this season, they are off to just a 6-3 start this year.  Yes, their three losses have come to very good teams in Wisconsin, Butler and Kansas, but their only good win came against a down Florida team by a single point (66-65).  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 78-62 at home and Robert Morris 80-66 at home.  They aren't going to blow out these 49ers by more than 14 points today.

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents.  The Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

25* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Grizzlies UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies are known for how hard they play defense.  It's a big reason why both rank near the top of their respective conference this year.  Chicago is 16-9 while Memphis is 21-4.  I look for a defensive battle between these teams Friday.

Both teams are among the top 10 in defensive efficiency this season, which has been a trend for these two for years.  Memphis ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is 9th, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis plays at one of the slowest paces in the league as well, and playing at home, it will control the tempo tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 25th in pace at 94.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls are 15th at 95.8 possessions per contest.

It's no wonder that these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  Indeed, they have combined for 188 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 162, 186, 167, 151, 188 and 168 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 170.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

I believe a big reason this number has been inflated is because Memphis has played in some high-scoring games here of late.  Well, three of its last four games went to overtime.  They went to double-OT against Charlotte in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation.  They went to OT against Philadelphia.  They went to triple-OT against San Antonio in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation as well.

Chicago also went over the total last night in a 103-97 home win over New York.  Now, playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, the Bulls are strongly considering resting Derrick Rose as he is listed as questionable.  Whether he plays or not, I have no doubt this game goes under the posted total.

Chicago is 7-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making at least 76% of their attempts this season.  The UNDER 6-0 in Bulls last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 23-8 to the UNDER off a home win over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two years.  The Grizzlies are 20-5 to the UNDER in their last 25 off six or more consecutive wins.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3

The Golden State Warriors just had their 16-game winning streak snapped.  Teams that have extended winning streaks come to an end the game before usually come out flat the next game because they are no longer focused in on keeping that winning streak going.  I look for the Warriors to drop their second straight game after falling to the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Now, Golden State has to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder have gotten back to 12-13 on the season and will be pushing hard to get to .500 tonight with another victory.

The Thunder have won seven straight games coming in with six of those coming by 9 points or more.  To no surprise, this streak started just about when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the lineup.  Now, the Thunder are at full strength and a very dangerous team that should not be an underdog to almost anyone.

Westbrook is averaging 27.8 points on 50.9 percent shooting in nine games since returning from a fractured right hand.  Durant is still rounding into his superstar form, averaging 21.5 points in eight games since his debut from a fractured right foot.

While the offense has been superb in scoring at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games, the defense has been very good as well.  The Thunder are giving up 93.1 points per game and 40.2 percent shooting during their seven-game winning streak.  They have taken 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Warriors.

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS In its last 24 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Golden State is 14-27 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.  Oklahoma City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  The Thunder are 5-0 ATS In their last five games overall.  OKC is 7-1 ATS In its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five visits to Golden State.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

20* Knicks/Bulls TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar way too high in this game, and we'll take advantage as this is my strongest totals play on TNT for the month of December.

Both teams like to play at slow paces, which favors the UNDER here.  New York ranks 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.1 possessions per game.  Chicago ranks 13th in pace at 96.0 possessions per game.  The Knicks average a woeful 93.6 points per game as they continue trying to learn the Triangle Offense.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 189 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They combined for 184, 189, 199, 161 and 163 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.2 points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both teams have been pretty good defensively this year as they each allow less than 100 points per game.  Chicago's defense gets a big boost tonight as both Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah are expected to play.  Noah has missed the last four games with an injury.

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bulls last 13 when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Bulls last 57 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Nets/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +11

The Toronto Raptors are way overvalued right now because they own the best record in the Eastern Conference at 19-6.  They now find themselves favored by double-digits for only the fifth time this season against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, which is way too much.

Toronto hasn't been as dominant of late because it has been without its second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) for the last 10 games.  It has gone just 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  This team just isn't as good without DeRozan in the lineup.

Yes, I know the Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing 91-95 to Miami yesterday, but I'm not too concerned about it.  They had two days off prior to that Miami game to rest.  Plus, this is a National TV game on ESPN, so they will be motivated to push through whatever fatigue they are feeling.

The Nets have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS.  They have only been beaten twice on the road by more than 10 points on the road three times all year.  They stayed within 10 of Phoenix, Golden State and Portland to name a few of their solid road performances.  The beat the Hornets 114-87 in their last road game.

Brooklyn beat Toronto in the playoffs last year in seven games and has won five of the last eight meetings overall.  In fact, Brooklyn has not lost to Toronto by more than 8 points in any of their last nine meetings.  That's a perfect 9-0 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Toronto.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska-Omaha -3.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets along the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, at home against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.1 rpg)) and Patterson (13.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.0 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thurman (10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and White (7.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

The Mavericks have played a brutal schedule this year with six road games against only three home games and have done a very good job of getting to 4-5 with this gauntlet.  They are just 1-5 on the road, but 3-0 at home where they are outscoring teams by a whopping 25.4 points per game.

Northern Colorado has been terrible on the road and great at home as well.  It is 4-0 at home with its four wins coming against some terrible teams in Black Hills State, Colorado Christian, Stetson and Florida A&M.  It is 0-4 on the road where it is getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points per game.  It lost at New Mexico State 65-86 and at Colorado 68-93.

Nebraska-Omaha is a perfect 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Northern Colorado is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

The Phoenix Suns are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  This team is much better than their 12-14 record to this point in the season, and they will be laying it all on the line to try and end this skid.

The Suns couldn't ask for a much better opponent to put an end to this losing streak.  They'll be facing a Charlotte Hornets team that is just 6-18 on the season, and one that has lost 13 of their last 15 games coming in.  Their only wins came at home against lowly New York and Boston.

Phoenix has owned Charlotte in recent meeting as well.  It is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Hornets.  All five of those victories came by 6 points or more as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 199-127 (61%) ATS since 1996.

The Suns are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on 1 days rest.  Phoenix is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are surging since both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant returned.  After digging themselves an early hole, the Thunder (11-13) cannot afford to take games off the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.  That's why you know they are going to bring it every night, and they certainly have done that of late.

Indeed, the Thunder 6-0 in their last six games overall with the last four coming via blowout.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with a 13-point win over Milwaukee, a 9-point win over Cleveland, a 19-point win at Minnesota, and a 24-point win against Phoenix.

Sacramento is in shambles right now.  It has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone.  This stretch has coincided with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins to a battle with viral meningitis.  The Kings fell to 2-7 without Cousins in a 95-90 home loss to four-win Detroit last time out.  Cousins remains out tonight.

Oklahoma City simply owns Sacramento.  The Thunder have won 11 consecutive meetings with the Kings, and dating back further they are 17-1 in their last 18.  I look for this domination to continue tonight as the Thunder roll to a blowout victory over the Kings.

The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The Kings are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year.  That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite.  Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.

These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite.  That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's.  Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.

Alabam  is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 203

This is an excellent matchup tonight between the top two teams in the Western Conference in Golden State (21-2) and Memphis (19-4).  I look for the intensity to be very high in this game, especially on the defensive end, given the caliber of this game and the fact that it will be nationally televised on ESPN.

After all, the reason these teams are in 1st and 2nd place are because of their defense.  Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis ranks 7th, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

This is a contrast in styles as the Warriors like to push the tempo, while the Grizzlies like to slow it down.  Well, the home team almost always controls the tempo, so look for this game to be played at a snail's pace.  Memphis ranks 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 offensive possessions per game.

When you look at previous meetings between these teams and previous totals in this series, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated tonight.  Oddsmakers have set the totals for Memphis vs. Golden State games at 192.5 or less in each of their last seven meetings.  This total is set at 203 points.

It's also easy to see why this number is inflated when you consider how low-scoring this series has been.  Memphis and Golden State have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have combined for 193, 190, 169, 198, 192, 181, 198 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 189.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.

Another reason this number is inflated is because both Golden State and Memphis are coming off high-scoring games, but that was the result of overtime.  The Warriors beat the Pelicans without Anthony Davis 128-122 in OT last time out, while the Grizzlies have played back-to-back OT games against Philadelphia (120-115) and Charlotte (113-107).

Golden State is 20-9 to the UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 60-34 to the UNDER in its last 94 games off four or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 42-15 in Warriors last 57 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Warriors last 59 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued right now due to their current five-game losing streak that has dropped them to 12-13 on the season.  Now, they are only 4.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight when they should be closer to double-digit favorites.

The Suns have played a tough stretch of games during this losing streak, and four of the five losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost at Houston, at LA Clippers and at Oklahoma City.  They aren't all of a sudden a bad team due to this streak, they just have had some bad fortune.  The public perception on them is way down, and now it's time to back the Suns as they play an inspired effort at home tonight to put an end to this skid.

Milwaukee is actually overvalued right now due to its decent 12-12 start to the year.  While there's no question the Bucks are improved, they have no business only catching 4.5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Bucks have lost five of their last seven coming in.  They are just 5-8 on the road this season where they are giving up 103.5 points per game.

Phoenix has owned Milwaukee in recent meetings.  It is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Milwaukee overall with five of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Suns swept the season series with the Bucks last year, winning 116-100 at home and 126-117 on the road.  I like their chances of earning another blowout victory here tonight.

Milwaukee is in a letdown spot after beating the Clippers at home on Saturday, who were tired playing the second of a back-to-back.  Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Phoenix is 30-13-1 ATS in its last 44 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic have been a money-making machine for me here of late, and I'm going to continue to ride them because they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case in today's situation.

Orlando is a much better team than its 10-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also topping Atlanta (100-99) at home.  They suffered close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this eight-game stretch.

The Magic just got back their leading scorer and rebounder in Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) after a five-game absence.  He returned in time to beat the Hawks on Saturday, and now he's back to full strength and the Magic should be an even more dangerous team going forward.  They also feel pretty good about themselves after Tobias Harris hit a game-winner at the buzzer to beat Atlanta.

While I like what I've seen from the Magic of late, this is more of a fade of Toronto than anything.  The Raptors are way overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6.  Well, they have shown signs of slowing down here of late, going just 5-4 in their last nine games overall.  A lot of that has had to with an injury to second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg), who has missed the past nine games with a groin injury.

DeRozan will miss this game as well.  Without him, this roster is very thin.  The Raptors are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Plus, they went to overtime to beat New York on the road last night, and I look for them to come out tired and flat in this game against the re-energized Magic.  Orlando will be giving the better effort in this one, and it will allow them to stay within 7 points and possibly pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +7

The New York Knicks own one of the league's worst records at this point in the season at 5-20.  As a result, they are way undervalued right now.  I certainly do not believe they are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have simply been unlucky in close games this year.

Indeed, a whopping 13 of the Knicks' 20 losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  That is about as unlucky as it gets.  This team has not quit, however, as it is coming off a big win at Boston 101-95 on Friday to put an end to an extended losing streak.  I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight as well.

At 17-6 on the season and with one of the best records in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are clearly overvalued right now.  This combination of the Raptors being overvalued and the Knicks undervalued has created some massive line inflation in this game.  The Raptors should not be laying 7 points on the road to the Knicks.

New York won each of its final two meetings of the season with with the Raptors in 2013-14.  It won 108-100 as a 5.5-point road underdog, and 95-92 as a 6-point home dog.  It has actually taken three of its last five from Toronto.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - hot shooting team - three straight games making at least 47% of their shots are 92-52 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18

This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford.  I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.

Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning.  It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game.  It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.

The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year.  Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's.  They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).

Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS.  Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare.  I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.

They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs.  They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court.  They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Samford Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +3.5

This is a classic home-and-home situation here between Orlando and Atlanta.  These teams played last night in Atlanta with the Hawks coming away with an 87-81 home victory.  I backed the Magic +8 with success in that game, and I'll turn around and back them again here.

You almost always want to take the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation in the second game no matter the location.  That's because the team that lost the first game is going to be highly motivated for revenge, while the team that won the first game finds it hard to be motivated to beat a team two days in a row.

Orlando is a team that is better than its 9-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 16-6 start and a current nine-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying any points to the Magic tonight.  All nine of the Hawks' wins during their streak have come against teams with .500 or worse records.

One key here is that Orlando is expected to have its best player back after a five-game absence.  Leading scorer and rebounder Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) has missed the last five games with a back injury, including last night's game, but he is listed as probable for this one.  He'll give this team a huge boost, especially since this is the second of a back-to-back situation.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Orlando Saturday.

20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting.  It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press.  UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.

It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago.  It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS.  It has some really bad losses along the way.  It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home.  It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past.  This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.

Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog.  It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting.  It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense.  Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins.  VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5

Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court.  However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.  It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.

I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry.  All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).

Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year.  It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home.  It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU.  It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.

The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury.  His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range.  Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.

Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1.5

The Golden State Warriors are the single-most overrated team in the NBA at this point in the season because they own the league's best record at 17-2.  Now, they actually find themselves favored on the road against one of the best teams in the West in Dallas.

Dallas is among the league's best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages an NBA-best 110.5 points.  It has scored at least 105 points in nine straight games while going 7-2 during this stretch.

The Mavericks are 9-3 at home this season where their 115.5 points per game scored leads the NBA as well.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as well.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings.

Dallas is 36-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 53-24 ATS in their last 77 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans look to get back to .500 as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in a big game for them.  I look for the Pelicans to take it to the Cavaliers, who have nothing left in the tank right now.

Cleveland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Cavaliers exerted a lot of energy last night in a 94-103 loss to the Thunder.  They were down 20 in the second half and fought back to get within 3, but ultimately lost by 9.

Plus, Lebron James missed last night's game with knee soreness.  He is questionable to play tonight as well.  Whether he plays or not I still recommend a play on the Pelicans, but if he doesn't that will only be an added bonus.

The Pelicans have had the Cavaliers' number in recent meetings.  They have won six of their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Home-court advantage has also been big in this series.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings with the only exception being a Pelicans' 100-89 road win last year.

The Pelicans are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 6-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).

The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters.  Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent.  Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.

Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15.  Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule.  Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.

This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle.  Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.

Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State.  It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.

Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games.  Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take Colorado Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you.  It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting.  It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.

Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year.  However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. 

The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68).  If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12

The No. 4 Ranked Louisville Cardinals are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They returned just two starters from a team that went 31-6 last year and certainly will not be as good in 2014-15.

Those two returning starters are Chris Jones (10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and Montrezl Harrell (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who are good ones.  However, the losses of Russ Smith (18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Luke Hancock (12.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) cannot be overstated.

Louisville has pretty much beaten up on a soft schedule en route to a 7-0 start.  Two of its three closest wins have come against Big Ten opponents in Minnesota (81-68) and Ohio State (64-55).  I believe that Indiana is better than both Minnesota and Ohio State this year.

The Hoosiers will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They returned two starters this year, including their top scorer from last season in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg last year), who just does everything for this team.

Ferrelly (17.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) has picked up where he left off last year.  James Blackmon Jr. (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  He is hitting 54.2% from 3-point range.  Troy Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Robert Johnson (11.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg) have also helped give the Hoosiers balanced scoring among their starting lineup.

Indiana has gotten off to a 7-1 start this season.  It has beaten two of the better teams in the country along the way.  It topped SMU 74-68 at home despite being a 1-point underdog in that contest.  It also throttled Pittsburgh 81-69 at home as only a 2.5-point favorite.

I really like this matchup for the Hoosiers.  Their offense is explosive in averaging 88.4 points per game on 52.4% shooting.  They do not turn the ball over, only averaging 12 turnovers per game.  That's huge because Louisville thrives on forcing turnovers in its pressing scheme.  It forces 20 turnovers per game. 

The Hoosiers have tremendous guards and will not be phased by the press one bit.  In fact, I expect them to beat it with regularity and to get some easy buckets as a result.  Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson are all guards who take care of the basketball and can fill up the score sheet.

Louisville is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game.  Tom Crean is 38-22 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

To say it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere in Oklahoma City tonight would be a massive understatement.  The Thunder faithful will be out in full fledge tonight to support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This will be the first home game of the season where both of these superstars have suited up.

The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last four games overall.  Westbrook has played in four of those games, while Durant has played in the last three.  These two have showed little rust.  Wesbrook is averaging 23.7 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds, while Durant is averaging 21.7 points.  They'll both only continue to get stronger as the season goes on.

Milwaukee is overvalued at this point in the season due to its surprising 11-11 start.  It has started to show a lot of vulnerability in its last five games as the schedule has ramped up.  It has lost four of its last five games with its only win coming against Miami.  It was beaten handily at Dallas 102-125 on Sunday, and a similar beat down can be expected at the hands of the Thunder tonight.

OKC is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Milwaukee in which both Durant has played.  It has won by 16, 13, 10 and 20 points in those four games for an average margin of victory of 14.8 points per game.  Three of those four wins came on the road, with the 16-point victory coming at home.

The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Oklahoma City.  Roll with the Thunder Tuesday.