15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors.  The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.

Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out.  Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors.  Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.

These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points.  We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.

Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3

I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.  I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa.  This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener.  The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.

North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season.  The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State.  They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games.  Roll with Florida State Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today.  I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.

For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.

New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season.  But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa.  But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range.  But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.

Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5

The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).

The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court.  But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season.  I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.

Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here.  It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins.  Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year.  They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.

I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results.  The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago.  The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.

The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks.  There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams.  They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.

Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April.  They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0).  Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd.  The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.  I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.

The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.

The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.

I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back.  I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time.  Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.

New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win.  The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.

The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.

The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005.  While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.   The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Hawks UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring battle with neither team topping 100 points in this one folks.

These two teams both prefer to play at slower paces.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Hawks rank 15th.  Both teams are above-average defensively as the Pistons rank 11th in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in at 13th.  The Pistons are only 24th in offensive efficiency this season.
 
Detroit shot 15-of-29 from 3-point range last night at Miami, yet it still only won 93-92 for 185 combined points.  It has not played well offensively in second of back-to-back road games.  The Pistons are averaging 88.0 points on 39.9 percent shooting in losing all three of their second half of back-to-backs played on the road.

You also have to like the UNDER in this game based off the recent history in this series.  Five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Hawks have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  They're averaging 194.8 combined points in their last six meetings, which is roughly eight points less than this 202.5-point total.

Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 16-3 UNDER in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair whether or not Carmelo Anthony plays for the Knicks.  He is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Knicks rank just 21st in offensive efficiency this season.  Things won't get any easier against a Cleveland team that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency.  The Knicks are solid in this category as well as they are 16th in defensive efficiency.

One thing is almost certain, and that is the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace.  The Cavs rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 23rd at 96.9 possessions per game.  A snail's pace has indeed been the trend when these teams have gotten together recently.

In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 180.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavs last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Cavs last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/76ers UNDER 195

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on full display tonight.

The 76ers rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies are 26th.  Not only are they both inefficient, but this game is sure to be played at a pretty slow pace as well.  The Grizzlies rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.

The 76ers try to play faster, but they aren't equipped to do it, which is why they are so inefficient.  The 76ers have scored 97 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall and put up just 91.2 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies have been held to 99 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Both meetings last season between these teams were very low-scoring.  They combined for 176 and 184 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 195-point total.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Grizzlies last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 33-13-1 in Grizzlies last 47 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Thunder/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 205

Look for a defensive battle tonight in this high-profile game between Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This contest will be nationally televised on TNT tonight, which means the defense from both teams will be turned up a notch.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA as the Cavs rank 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Thunder rank 10th.  Both teams have really been locking in defensively here of late.

The Thunder have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven straight games, and 99 or less in 10 of their last 11.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  The Cavs have allowed 100 or less in seven of their last eight games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight contests.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Cleveland is 11-2 to the UNDER after allowing 90 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 11-0 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this season.  OKC is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  These last three trends combine for a 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 199.5

Both of these teams have been profitable UNDER bets this season.  The Hawks are 16-10 to the UNDER, while the 76ers are 14-12 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 9-5 in Hawks' 14 home games, while the UNDER is 10-5 in 76ers' 15 road games.

The Hawks have taken a big step back offensively this season, while the 76ers rank 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 91.4 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta plays at the 19th-fastest pace in the NBA this season and will control the tempo playing at home.

The recent head-to-head history tells the story in this one.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and we've seen 198 or fewer combined points in all five.  We've seen 176, 176, 192, 174 and 198 combined points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.5.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER after two straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 90-37 (70.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hawks last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 191.5

The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season.  They have gone 18-5 to the UNDER in their 23 games this year.  The Nets haven't been too shabby themselves, going 15-9 to the UNDER in their 24 games.

The Heat rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Spurs have been better.  Both teams have struggled on the other end of the floor.  The Nets rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 18th.  The Heat rank 26th in pace with the Nets checking in at 15th.

This has been a very low-scoring series as four of the last five meetings have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 202, 172, 186, 178 and 190 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.6 combined points per game, which is roughly six points less than this posted total of 191.5.

The UNDER is 36-15 in Heat's last 51 road games, including a perfect 8-0 this season.  The Heat and they're opponents are combining for an average of just 182.2 points per game on the road this year.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Magic UNDER 198

The Charlotte Hornets and Orland Magic are two of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Hornets rank 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Magic check in at 7th in the first year under head coach Scott Skiles, who has always been a defensive guy.

While the Hornets have been solid offensively this year, the Magic check in at 21st in offensive efficiency.  Both teams like to play at slow paces, too.  The Hornets are 17th in pace while the Magic are 18th.  Look for an ugly, defensive battle tonight when these two teams get together.

That has been the case in recent meetings.  The Hornets and Magic have combined for 181, 188 and 196 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 188.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than this posted total of 198.

The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Hornets last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Hornets last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Magic's last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last four vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 211.5

Defensive anchor Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup today for the Phoenix Suns.  He has missed the past eight games due to injury.  Alex Len has played well in his place, averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 boards over his last four games.  But having Chandler back makes Phoenix a much better defensive team.

I believe this total has been inflated because Minnesota has gone over the total in four straight games.  But the last two have gone to overtime.  The Timberwolves were tied 100-100 with the Nuggets at the end of regulation in their last game before losing 108-111, going over the 202-point total.

The last five meetings in Phoenix between these teams have all gone UNDER this 211.5-point total as they've combined for 203, 209, 211, 203 and 167 points in those five.  That's an average of 198.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Minnesota is 17-4 UNDER after a road games where both teams score 100 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 27-12 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a tremendous home team and an awful road team under current head coach Tim Miles.  Getting them as only 1-point home favorites over Rhode Island today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Nebraska has gone 5-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 19.3 points per game.  The Huskers' only home loss came by a final of 72-77 to Miami as 5.5-point dogs.  The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskers are 6-4 this season with their four losses all coming to very good teams in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton.

Rhode Island is off to a 6-3 start this year, but its six wins have come against American, Cleveland State, TCU, Rider, Holy Cross and Houston.  The Rams were a promising team this year until E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury.  He was their best player last year, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  Without him, this is just a slightly above-average team.

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Nebraska is 49-31 ATS in its last 80 home games off a road loss.  Miles is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Nebraska.  Miles is 11-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Nebraska.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Bucks UNDER 207

Both the Warriors and Bucks will be fatigued tonight after playing Friday as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for both teams.  That's especially the case for the Warriors, who played a double-overtime thriller against the Celtics last night.  Neither team will be looking to push the pace in this one as that fatigue affects their offense more than their defense.

Things will be very tough for the Bucks, who rank 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The Warriors rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee will control the pace tonight playing at home and will slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Bucks rank 29th in the NBA in pace, averaging 95.3 possessions per game.

The Bucks have scored 95 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have been pretty good defensively, though, giving up 95 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall.  The two meetings between these teams last year saw 195 and 203 combined points.

Golden State is 30-16 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Bucks last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Hornets UNDER 203

Both of these teams played last night and will be fatigued tonight.  Especially the Celtics, who went to double-overtime against the Warriors.  That fatigue will show up more on the offensive end as neither team looks to push the pace often, and both will struggle shooting the ball as well.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Charlotte ranked 6th in efficiency.  Boston allows 43.3% shooting this year while Charlotte allows 43.8% shooting.

Boston is 10-0 UNDER in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 28-12 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Hornets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Charlotte.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +13

The Butler Bulldogs are laying a few too many points today to the Tennessee Vols.  This is a Tennessee team that beat Butler 67-55 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad for first-year head coach Rick Barnes.

The Vols are just 4-3 this season, but they really haven't been blown out yet as their three losses came by 2 at Georgia Tech, by 3 on the road to George Washington, and by 11 to Nebraska.  The Vols have not played since November 28th, so they have had a lot of time to prepare for Butler.  They know the Bulldogs inside and out having two weeks to get ready for them.  You can bet they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on thefloor.

Butler has had some lackluster performances this season that would make it hard for me to envision it covering this 13-point spread.  After all, the Bulldogs only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 16 as 29.5-point home favorites, and Indiana State by 14 as 17-point home favorites.  Tennessee is more than capable of staying within 13 and possibly pulling off the upset.

Tennessee is 13-3 ATS versus teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home loss.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Thunder UNDER 212.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers and the betting public think.

The Thunder have been great defensively here of late.  They have given up 99 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  I look for that trend to continue here against a Hawks team that has been held to 98 or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Hawks have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 101 points or fewer as well.

Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Five of those have seen 199 or fewer combined points as well.  Based off that recent head-to-head history alone, this total has clearly been set too high tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.

OKC is 7-0 UNDER versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  The Thunder are 8-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this year.  OKC is 7-0 UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN2 Rivalry Play on Iowa State -7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season and they are one of the most fun teams to watch because they share the ball so well.  They average 18 assists per game, including 21 at home.

They have a ton of balance with five players averaging at least 12.9 points.  Abdel Nader has averaged 16.3 in the past four, and Monte Morris has scored at least 12 in every game while leading the Big 12 with 7.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double (13.9 points, 11.6 rebounds).

Iowa State's numbers at both ends of the floor are off the charts.  It is putting up 86.9 points per game and 51.7% shooting against teams that give up 71.7 points and 43.5% shooting.  Defensively, it is giving up 66.6 points per game and 38.3% shooting against teams that average 77.7 points and 44.3% shooting.

Iowa is a quality team from the Big Ten, but it has lost to the two best teams it has faced in Dayton and Notre Dame. This will also be just the second true road game of the season for the Hawkeyes.  They were crushed 75-90 at home by the Cyclones last year, and they don't stand much of a chance of keeping this one close in Ames this time around.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these teams by an average of 21.3 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -3.5

This is a very generous line we're getting here on the Illinois Fighting Illini as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Yale Bulldogs.  We'll take advantage in what should result in a blowout victory for the home team tonight.

Illinois is undervalued right now because it is off to just a 4-5 start this season.  But it has been playing much better of late.  It has won three of its last five.  Its only two losses came to Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Illini played Iowa State tough before giving way late in an 11-point loss.  They only lost by 5 to Notre Dame.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Western Carolina, and they also beat a good UAB by 14 points during this stretch.

Yale has gotten off to a 5-3 start this season.  Its five wins have come against Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Lehigh, Bryant and Vermont.  It has lost all three of its toughest games, including a 19-point loss to Duke and a 34-point loss to Albany.

Illinois is 9-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Illinois is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last two years.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Roll with Illinois Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 12-8 start while ranking 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency.  They have obviously been great on both ends of the floor, but it's their improvement on offense that has made the difference this season.

Charlotte has won seven of its last nine games with its only losses coming to conference leaders Golden State and Cleveland.  It has protected its home court very well this season, going 9-3 in all home games.  The Hornets are scoring 105.0 points per game and allowing 97.6 at home this year.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 12-7 start to the season.  Well, they have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule, playing 14 of their first 19 games in Miami.  They are just 2-3 on the road this season, scoring only 90.6 points per game away from home.  They have lost their last two trips to Charlotte since parting ways with Lebron James.

Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Maryland/UConn ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Maryland -2

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the best teams in the country.  Most of the preseason media outlets picked either Maryland or North Carolina as the No. 1 ranked teams in the country.  It's hard to argue those rankings with what I've seen from both teams thus far.

Maryland is off to a 7-1 start this season, outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  It has beaten some quality opponents like Georgetown and Rhode Island.  Its only loss this season came as an 8-point road underdog to those North Carolina Tar Heels.  The Terrapins lost that game 81-89 and hung very tough in a hostile atmosphere.  Keep in mind that the Tar Heels got back their best player in Marcus Paige in time for that game.

Connecticut is certainly an improved team this season after missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  But this Huskies squad hasn't been able to beat the best competition they have faced.  They are 5-2 this season with losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse.  They did beat Michigan, but that win isn't that great considering Michigan lost to Xavier at home by 16.

Mayrland has received solid play from returning starters Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Jake Layman (11.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  But the biggest reason for the hype from this team was the additions of Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon.  Both Carter (13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Sulaimon (11.6 ppg, 52.9% 3-pointers) have lived up to the hype.

The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.  MarkTurgeon is 50-26 ATS in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  Turgeon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points as the coach of the Terrapins.  Take Maryland Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Villanova Battle of Unbeatens on Oklahoma +4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the country, while the Villanova Wildcats come in as the No. 8 ranked team.  This is one of the biggest early-season non-conference games in college basketball.  But I believe the Sooners are the better team and should not be underdogs.

Oklahoma returned four starters from last year and is a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 this season.  I certainly like what I've seen from this team en route to a 5-0 start.  The Sooners went on the road and beat a very good Memphis team 84-78.  They also crushed Wisconsin 65-48 at home.  Both of those teams are better than anything that Villanova has faced thus far.

Villanova is off to a 7-0 start this season with its seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's.  This will by far the toughest test for the Wildcats yet.  They only returned two starters this season and are clearly overvalued due to their 5-1 ATS record in the early going.

Buddy Hield is a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range.  Head coach Lon Kruger has stated that this is the hardest-working team he's every been around, and that's a huge statement for a guy with his credentials.  The other three returning starters happen to be their next-three highest scorers in Isaiah Cousins (13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Ryan Spangler (12.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - after two consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after two straight covers as a double digit favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1997.  Okalhoma is 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning in these spots by 19.5 points per game.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11

This is strictly a spot play.  I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday.  They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home.  It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.

Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.

In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule.  It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams.  Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4).  No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.

Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites.  Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins.  Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/T'Wolves OVER 203

Look for a high-scoring affair tonight between the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves.  It's almost always a shootout when these teams get together, and I don't expect anything different tonight.

The Blazers are coming off a 227-point effort at home against Dallas and a 234-point effort at home against Indiana.  What's amazing about those two performances is that neither team shot the ball that well, but they just played at such a frantic pace that they went well over the posted totals of 201 and 202.5, respectively.

What I also love about this play is the recent head-to-head history in the series.  The Blazers and Timberwolves have combined for 207, 207 and 234 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 216.0 combined points per game, which is 13 points more than this 203-point total.  Also, the OVER is 414-5-2 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.

Minnesota is is 10-0 to the OVER off a game with 15 or less assists over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 38-16-2 in Trail Blazers last 56 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Portland is 27-14 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today.  This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.

UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes.  It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out.  But the  numbers tell the story for me.  UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5.  That's the sign of a very good team.

Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass.  Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers.  It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.

The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game.  Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book.  All three are deadly from 3-point range.  Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%.   It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.

UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games.  The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5

Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season.  Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points.  The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.

The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit.  Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average.  Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.

Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking.  Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team.  The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8.  Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done.  If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.

The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd returned four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule.  They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games.  They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison.  They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game.  The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.

Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas.  But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night.  That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system.  That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.

Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings.  It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs.  So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips.  I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.

Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game.  Take Marshall Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1

The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12.  They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.

But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land.  They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again.  Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.

I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start.  Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points.  The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2).  I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.

The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%.  Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.

USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Roll with USC Thursday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5

BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament.  That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.

The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State.  Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures.  Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball.  Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.

Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here.  Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less.  The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.

Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post.  They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33.  The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game.  The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with BYU Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here.  Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch.  But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.

Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year.  James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country.  Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.

Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress.  The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky.  They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites.  But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.

Indiana can score with anyone.  It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season.  Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad.  Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here.  Bet Indiana Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 196.5

I believe the books have set the bar too low in this matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks tonight.  Look for a high-scoring affair with both teams topping 100 points in this one as it sails well OVER the posted total of 196.5.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.  The Hawks rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are right behind them in 7th at 103.0 points per 100 possessions.

Recent meetings tell the story for me.  The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 199 or more points in three of their last four meetings, all of which occurred last season.  The only exception was a 185-point effort last year in which the Hawks shot a season-low 33.0% from the floor, including 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range.  They still combined to average 209.0 combined points per game in their four meetings last year even with that 185-point effort.

Toronto is 11-1 to the OVER in road games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta.  Toronto is 60-31 to the OVER in its last 91 road games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08.  They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.

While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games.  It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.

All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.

Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio.  It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game.  Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State.  I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5

Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year.  This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.

Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16.  Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.

William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points.  The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive.  But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs.  That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.

Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State.  But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76).  The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road.  The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.

William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three  seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take William & Mary Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.