The Warriors are great in every aspect.  I just think they are priced like a midseason form team.  Let's face it having the ring cereromy tonight and everything is a lot for them to take in.  I also wanna see how this Poole and Green situation develops.  Lakers were. bad last season, but they still have LeBron and AD together and when those guys are together and catching this many points it's almost an auto play.

I will take the Sixers here tonight.  The Celtics will be a team I look to play against this season especially early.  It's not because of what has gone on with the coaching either.  They were slow starters last year but I think the target is a lot different this season.  Sixers at full strength and a little more time to gel with Harden I believe are the better team.

Wished I had the better number earlier this week but the Eagles are prime here.  This is obviously a discount with Philly considering the Cowboys were just 5.5 point dogs @ the Rams and we all can agree that the Eagles are better than the Rams.  Great matchup here for Philly and I think their defense will match Dallas.  Dallas in order to win game are scoring in the low 20'2 and I dont think they can hold this Eagles team to under 21 here.  If Dallas and Rush have to play catch up which they haven't yet, I think that will spell big trouble for them.

I like the Bills here this week.  First, I think the Chiefs have been a hair lucky as they survived the Raiders and Chargers both at home mind you.  Chiefs defense has holes as they have shown and you can move the ball up an down the field.  Whats the best way to beat Mahomes? Keep him on the sidelines and that is what Allen will do.  I also think it's worth noting that everyone and I mean everyone will be teasing the Chiefs to 8.5 point dogs.  We see this every week in the NFL that one of the most teased teams lose outright as big favorites or get blown out when given this specific case.  I think the Bills put one on them

Happy to grab this number here with the Cardinals.  Arizona has played a top 10 schedule according to PFF, while the Seahawks have played the 25th ranked schedule.  Seattle here has shown the ability to literally stop no one period.  They rank dead last in overall defense and have played teams like the Lions, Falcons and Saints who aren't exactly sexy offenses to say the least especially given how big of step up Kyler is compared to those starting QB's.   Cardinals are 2-0 on the road this season and their 3 losses are to the Rams Eagles and Chiefs, can you really fault them that much?  

I don't see this going to 10 at all so will happily grab this number.  The Bucs once again play an ugly game of football and come out with the victory.  I think this team is very overrated as their 3 wins the highest they scored was last week and it was only 21.  I know the Bucs have injury issues but this is almost pricing the Bucs and the Bills the same and we know that is for sure not true.  Steelers getting blown out at the Bills I mean does it really matter that much?  The Bills tend to do that to people.  Pickett first home game start I think moves the ball and keeps this really close and possibly the upset.

This one also stood out to me right away.  I had the Browns in a winner last week vs the Chargers and since they covered I think they are getting some respect.  I also had the Patriots in an easy winner and it was because I really liked from what I saw with Zappe two weeks ago @ the Packers.  It was a brutal situation to be thrown in and he almost won them the game.  We know how the Browns love to play on the ground, but the Patriots do as well and yes the Browns are the best rushing attack in the league, the Patriots are top 10 also.  Browns are bottom 4 in the league against the run and I believe their best player in Ward will be out with a concussion.  Patriots win outright.

The lines has dropped from the look ahead here so I think that presents great value with the Ravens.  Baltimore didn't cover Sunday night vs the Bengals and the Giants won outright in London vs the Packers.  I think the Giants story is great and a lot of that is their new HC.  The Packers haven't looked right and plus they were favored by 8 in that game.  I know the Giants are home but the Ravens are way better than Green Bay right now.  Ravens do have some injury concerns in the secondary but the Giants aren't the air attack here to counter that.  Giants rank 26th against the run and Baltimore plays keep away here and dominates game on the ground

I really like the Jags here in this game.  I know most people are going to say it's a buy low on the Colts because they are favored less here than they were in the first meeting.  However, we have seen enough data from these two teams and the Jags are just much much better on both sides of the ball.  Colts have the worst scoring offense and the Thursday night win over the Broncos 12-9 doesn't impress me at all.  Jags have a top 10 defense here and I love the bounce back spot after a ugly loss last week vs the Texans.  Jags have owned this series covering 6 straight. 

I had this game circled after what took place last weekend.  Memphis blew one of the worst games you will ever see.  They were up 13 points with 2 minutes left and lost outright, yes you read that right.  I just think those types of losses are super hard to bounce back from.  ECU on the other hand will be motivated also following an ugly loss on the road.  Give me the more motivated team at home here following a team with a gut punch loss.  

James Madison enters the rankings this weekend and wow are they getting some love.  They have also covered every game now they are at a premium price which is the perfect time to sell high on them.  Ga Southern is a very much improved team and if you recall they won @ Nebraska earlier this season.  Also just a couple weeks ago they were 10 point dogs @ Coastal Carolina and lead going into the 4th quarter only to lose by 4.  James Madison is just getting a ton of love and I expect a one possession game

No one likes the Razorbacks all the sudden since they are 3-3 and have field to cover 4 straight games.  Well, last week I give them a pass and it's the main reason I like them here.  KJ Jefferson returns this week and he is what makes this team go.  Their rushing attack which ranks 210th vs the BYU defense which ranks 101 will be the difference.  Arkansas value is extremely low and here and they will be hungry following an ugly showing last week while BYU had an all out effort at Notre Dame

I will lay it here with Ohio.  They have the overall better QB and that is good enough for me in this game.  I know the Bobcats have a terrible defense and really can't defend them here but the WMU offense isn't exactly anything to write home about either.  Rourke the Ohio QB will be the difference maker here and get the job done.

I actually think we are getting a discount here on TCU because of how high the Cowboys are ranked.  If you have watched Oklahoma St, you know they just dont pass the eye test especially given their ranking.  They have struggled with teams like Texas Tech last weekend and also Arizona St for majority of the game.  This is by far a huge step up in class here for the Cowboys and the TCU offense I think will really get the air game going.  TCU big time revenge also from an embarrassing loss last year

WKU will move the ball up and down the field on this MTSU team. WKU has the 3rd ranked passing attack in the country while MTSU ranks 119th against the pass.  MTSU is still living off the fact that they beat Miami in a miracle game.  WKU has 3 losses all by single digits so this team is clearly bette then their record indicates.  MTSU has been blowout the last 2 weeks and I see no difference here.

This is just crazy high line for this game.  Iowa St has dropped 3 straight games but all came down to the final minute.  I think that has them completely undervalued here this weekend.  This is also the perfect role for Campbell who thrives in these big underdog situations.  Texas is off the blowout win over their rival in Oklahoma and have Oklahoma St on deck.  Huge sandwich spot here plus the early kick I love and that favors Iowa St also.  Cyclones have the best defense in the Big 12 and that will keep them in this game

Really like the Ravens a lot here.  I still believe the Bengals are getting a ton of respect because of what happened last season.  The Bengals also swept the Ravens last season and you better believe that Baltimore hasn't forgot about that.  The Bengals have played a cupcake of a schedule so far and literally every game was a back up QB and they are 2-2.  Ravens are. 2-2 also but have. trailed for a total of 14 seconds all year long.  Love the Ravens to get revenge here

I know this is a public side this week but to me this is by far the biggest mismatch in terms of these teaser lines.  The Niners defense is arguably the best in football and it was on full display Monday night vs the Rams.  Well, have you see anything from Baker and company that makes you think that the Panthers are cable of scoring. more than 16?   Last week they scored 16 and that included a pick six.  I think the locker room there is  in turmoil and this the Niners should be able to get up early and really keep up the pressure and force several turnovers from Baker

Love the Patriots here laying less than a FG. Look, the Lions are vastly improved and their offense has been impressive give them all the credit.  I just think now the love is getting out of control.  I think it's a perfect and cheap spot to back the Pats off a loss.  Zappe was impressive to me being thrown into that atmosphere last week @ Green Bay.  The biggest thing here is the Lions defense is just horrible plain and simple.  The Patriots will have long drives, control the clock and keep that offense off the field.  Too much being made into Zappe being the QB when in fact. it isn't that big of drop off.

The Jags are very improved this season especially.  on the. defensive side of.  the ball.   They are now getting a lot of respect because of those. improvements.  I agree with an adjustment, but it has simply. been too much.  The  Jags have. been a dog in every game this season and now are. favored by 7.5 over a division opponent, who has. had. their number.   The Texans aren't good but. 7.5 here?   Mills and company were only 5 point dogs to the Chargers last week.   We are getting an overreaction.  

I really like what I saw last week from Wilson in his return.  The late final drive on the road in a tough environment  really was impressive honestly.  I think that confidence carriers over here.  Wilson also brings something to the table here that Flacco doesn't.  He has the ability to extend.  plays with his legs.  Dolphins I like, and Teddy is a good backup.  However, you want Teddy as a dog, not a road favorite.  Jets defense and offense both rank in the top 10 in overall right now, how many would have. guessed that?  I just wonder what that. Tua injury will do to the. Dolphins chemistry.

This line makes zero sense.  Last week you could have bet the Chargers -1 or even a PK.  Now they are laying a full FG?  Big time overreaction here.  The Browns lost a 50/50 game to the Falcons but Clowney and Garrett should both be back which is huge for their defense.  The Chargers just. can't get over that. hump IMO.  They had a comfortable lead and dang near lost. the game vs the Texans in classic Chargers fashion.  The Chargers defense is hurt and their lack there of ability to stop the run is a concern here. 

I like the buy low here on the Saints who are 1-3. It doesn't really matter to me who is the QB this week for them as it's more of a fade of the Seahawks.  Saints were missing Kamara and Thomas last. week and really should have beat the Vikings.  The thing here is that when the Seahawks have faced two opponents with a solid defense they were completely shut down not scoring more than 16 in both games.  Saints are desperate right now avoiding the 1-4 start.  I know they are off the London game but I also think that is keeping this line low.  Saints will also move the ball easily as the Seahawks have one of the top 10 worst defenses in the league 

I believe this is the ultimate buy low spot on Fresno St.  Last week was one of the worst performances of the season by any team.  They lost on the road @ Uconn as 22.5 point favorites.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game to me.  Remember a couple weeks back Fresno was just over 10 point dogs @ USC.  This is a gift here reacting to last weeks loss.  

I will take FSU here as a dog.  I actually think they are the overall team. FSU is top 30 in defense and top 20 overall in offense while NC St has a great defense their offense is iffy at best ranking at 82 overall.  Both teams are off a loss but since FSU was favored in their loss to Wake I think people remember that more and tend to give NC St a pass if you will because they were beat by Clemson.  

Illinois is brining in one of the best defenses in the country vs literally the worst offense in the country.  Granted Iowa's defense is legit here, but they solely rely on their defense creating a short field or turnover in order for them to score.  Iowa scored a classic meaningless touchdown so the score looked closer last weekend vs Michigan.  Illinois with an impressive showing last week with a dominate win @ Wisconsin.  This is a night game and Illinois has had this one circled. 

Iowa St was favored at Kansas last. week and since they lost, they are dogs this week.  I think that is a big overreaction.  The Wildcats are off back to back big conference wins beating Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  This is the Cyclones season on the line here avoiding the 3 game losing streak.  Campbell isn't. great a a small favorite but as a dog I love him.

USC is just getting a ton of respect.  Yes, they are improved big time but it was just a few weeks ago they were laying less than this to Fresno St.  Wazzu is a legit team as they are 4-1 and 4-1 ATS.Their only loss came to Oregon in which it was a game they lead a majority of the way but still covered that game.  Wazzu has enough pieces here and I fully believe they keep this game close.

UCLA is getting a ton of respect here for their 5-0 start.  They by far had their toughest. test last. week against. Washington.  Utah is just a different animal and this line should be higher honestly.  Utah has owned this series winning 5 straight.  Utah's defense is something that UCLA hasn't seen this season.  

Great buy low spot here on UAB.  MTSU is still getting a ton of respect because of that win over Miami a couple weeks back.  UAB is coming off an ugly loss to Rice in which they outgained them by over 150 yards, so it was fluky.  UAB is just the overall better team and except them to be hungry here following that ugly loss.

The Sooners have won 4 straight in this series and I believe this is the year that Texas gets it right.  They return Ewers at QB which is the difference maker.  The Sooners aren't any good this year and last. week they were exposed by TCU big time.  If there was a let down spot for Texas it was last week and I think they win this easily.

The whole KU story is a great one and they deserve all the credit in the world for this turn around. I know they aren't getting any respect but this TCU team is one to pay attention to.  Their offense is flat out legit and they will oboe it up and down the field.  KU doesn't want to get in a shoot out here.  Kansas was really lucky to win last. week vs Iowa St as they were outgained by 100 yards.  TCU brings in the 2nd ranked offense in the country

Sunday night last week worked out perfectly IMO.  The 49ers lost an ugly game to the Broncos and most will be on the Rams.  The Niners here are desperate also and simply can't fall behind with a 1-3 record compared to a 3-1 this early.  I haven't been impressed by anything with what the Rams. have shown thus far.  They are very one dimensional and believe it or not that Shanahan owns Mcvay.  The Rams only win in the last 7 meeting was the NFC Championship last season.  Niners have the better personal here. Lay the points

This game is still being played in Tampa which is great.  The betting public will be all over the Chiefs here no doubt about it.  Here is the thing though, last week the Packers were catching points @ Tampa and with the. Chiefs laying points they are suggesting that the Chiefs would be laying 2 or so to Green Bay on a neutral?  I dont buy that at all!   Bucs get Evans back from suspension and according to PFF their defense is ranked 2nd.  Brady off a loss in a dog role is something you blindly take!  

This is a total situation play here.  The Raiders are the only winless team in the NFL and are desperate to say the least.  Every single one of their games have came down to the final minute but the fact they are 0-3 is giving us a little value.  Broncos are 2-1 but talk about a team that doesn't look the part at all.  Their defense is great but wow Russ and company struggle big time.  The ultimate get right game for the Raiders or the season is over and I believe they get it right here

I love the Bills here this week.  The most misleading score from last week was by far the Bills as they dominated the game but not the scoreboard.  The Dolphins didn't even have 20 minutes of possession which is crazy.  There was. a ton of concern considering all the injuries the Bills had in their secondary but they answered the call last week.  The Ravens covered again the Patriots and the public cashed big on them and they won't be hesitant to back them again here as dogs given the situation.  The biggest take away here is that the Ravens have the worst rated pass defense and that sets up for a disaster given how much Josh Allen and company throw. the ball. 

It's hard to fathom that the worst scoring offense in the league can lay more than a FG to anyone.  Well , that is exactly what we have here this week.  The Colts were my free pick last week in a winner but they were lucky beating the Chiefs outright.  Matt Ryan is a statue back there and the Colts were gifted an early TD to help with momentum.  The Titans aren't getting credit because of that blowout loss to the Bills, but lets face it the Bills do that to a lot of teams.  This is a division rival here and I get the better head coach plus the points.  Great buy low spot on the Titans

I will take the Browns here in what feels like an easy game.  This team is just flat out better on both sides of the ball and I have no idea why this line is this low.  I believe the Browns. loss to the Jets is still playing a huge factor when in fact that game was crazy fluky at the end and should have never happened.  Browns will control the clock here and dominate them on the ground.  I had the Falcons last week and they won at Seattle, but it's the Seahawks does that mean we really upgrade them that much?  They have covered every game and I also believe that is playing into this line here. 

I like this spot for the Steelers in what feels like the big buy low here.  They lost last Thursday to their rival the Browns and have their struggles on offense.  The Jets outside of that crazy comeback vs the Browns have been horrible.  A lot of their yards and everything are coming in garbage time so inflate some stats especially in the passing game.  Zach Wilson is coming back and while I do like him actually I wonder how effective he will be.  Steelers cheap price here at home. vs the worst team in the league.  

If there was ever a great spot to back Nebraska this season, it would be right now.  Thew firing of Frost is now gone and in the past and they are coming off a bye week and not in the news.  I think this is the perfect spot here with Indiana coming to town.  Nebraska is 0-4 ATS so there honestly couldn't be a buy lower. spot than now.  Nebraska's offense shouldn't have an issue moving the ball here and really controlling the clock and ultimately I believe pulling away in the end

Im getting the much better defense here vs a very bad offense and quite frankly this is a no brainer.  San Jose also went on the road to Auburn and gave them all they could handle and could have won the game. Wyoming is getting credit for beating Air Force a couple weeks back and that has them over valued.

Missouri is just plain and simple an extremely poor football team.  They are off a very tough outing va Auburn which clearly they played their tails off losing in OT.  The talent gap here is just massive and honestly not sure if Mizzou can get 13.  If Georgia shows up semi interested here I think it's over by half.  The fact that Georgia was sloppy vs Kent St last week makes me believe that Kirby will have his guys ready for the night game.  

I think both of these teams are equal, but given the spot I really like Cal here.  Washington St is really off a heart breaker of a loss in a game vs Oregon they controlled for more than 75%.   When schools who are middle of the pack, I also look to see if the next game makes sense to fade.  Well, Wazzu has USC on deck next and this is the classic sandwich spot here.  Cal's only loss came on the road to Notre Dame.  Granted ND hasn't looked great but still was an impressive game for them and ND is still better than Wazzu.  

With odds makers making Iowa St a 3 point favorite here it's pretty telling IMO who they believe is way better.  This line has been adjusted so much as it would have been well over two touchdowns to start the season.  Iowa St coming off the loss with Campbell is a perfect spot.  KU is much improved no denying that but this is a major step up in class and the Cyclones get it done.

I'm going to take the points here with Oklahoma St.  I love the fact they are coming off a bye week with two to prepare for Baylor in a perfect revenge spot, while Baylor played a hard fought conference game on the road @ Iowa St.  Baylor was on the fortunate side last week especially early. in that game from a call standpoint and it really flipped momentum.  The Cowboys offense is legit and I think Gundy jumps on Baylor early here .

Do we really know how good Bama is?  This team should have lost to Texas outright if it wasn't for the QB situation.  That was their only "step up in competition" so far and they barely passed the test.  I really like what. KJ Jefferson brings to the table here as he is mobile and that is key vs this Bama defense.  I think there are still plenty of unknowns regarding Bama so therefore they shouldn't be laying anywhere near. this number on the road to a quality. opponent. 

I'm pleasantly surprised here with this line.  I'm getting IMO two equal teams here plus the better. QB and I'm catching double digits.  Kent St is getting a ton of respect for covering 3 straight and maybe because they covered against Oklahoma and Georgia while Ohio didn't cover. @ Iowa St and @ Penn St.  Either way Rourke the QB from Ohio will move it on this Kent St defense.  Ohio has won 7 of the last 8 meetings outright! 

The Seahawks are still getting respect from their week 1 win on Monday night vs the Broncos.  The Seahawks didn't exactly win that game  as much as the Broncos lost the game.  Seattle. was. horrible last. week and in fact their only. touchdown was on a FG block.   Falcons. showed me al to of heart last week not giving up to. the. Rams.  It was a wild 4th but they actually had the ball at the 20 with a chance to win the game.    I want a team that shows. heart and the Falcons did exactly that.  Wrong team favored here

The Cardinals I think were probably the luckiest team last week.  The game was over twice and the refs bailed them out with defensive holding calls that I couldn't believe.  Rams were in full control until the Falcons blocked a punt late for a TD. I think the matchup here is  just horrible for the Cardinals as the Rams DL should just dominate and  have Kyler on the run the whole game.   Rams also haven't covered a game yet either so I do feel this is a discount plus the Cardinals win I believe it's a added discount. 

Late add

I wish the Titans didn't get blown out on Monday night but we still have to take the Raiders here.  They will be full of piss and vinegar after losing the way they did to the Cardinals on Sunday.  They dominated the game  for 3 quarters and up 20-0 for over half the game.   Both teams are 0-2 but the gap here between these two is pretty big IMO.  Carr  should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field  at will here.

I know the Bengals will be popular here this week but  man this is the ultimate buy low spot here on them.  Yes, the Bengals O line is in shambles but I think they clean it up this week.  I love that the Jets also pulled off the miracle come back win over the Browns also.  The Bengals are 0-2 and this is their season on the line playing the Jets.  Burrow and company make a statement 

I really like the value here with the Texans as this game should be  a PK.   The Texans  tied the Colts  and had the Broncos on the ropes.   There isn't anything to dislike about what they have shown so far.  The Bears still getting credit for that fluky win over the Niners in a rain storm.  Fields hasn't completed  20 passes  all season. and their offense just looks miserable.  Texans win outright 

This line was a PK last week and now the Ravens are -3?  What has. honestly changed since last week?  So, the Ravens blew a big lead and the Patriots controlled the whole game against Pitt and came away with a win.  Bellichick at home as a dog is an auto play honestly.  I also haven't been that impressed with the Ravens.  It took them the 2nd half to wake up against the Jets.  Both teams have played Miami and the Patriots were just 3.5 points dogs @ Miami and the. Ravens were 3.5 point favorites vs Miami at home.  This is suggesting that the Patriots and Ravens are even.  We are getting great value here with a home dog.

This is the perfect homer spot here for the Panthers this week.  They are 0-2 but literally both losses have came down to the wire.  If the coin flipped their way would they really be dogs here?  I just think this is the home run spot for Carolina and Matt Rhule who is coaching for his job.   The Saints are without Lattimore who is suspended. The Saints were lucky in week 1 surviving the Flacons and now are laying 3 on the road with a banged up QB?  Give me the desperate 0-2 team here for the outright win.

One of the most underrated matchups of the weekend will take place at Corvallis this weekend.  Oregon St.  I will admit that USC does pass the eye test right now especially on offense.  Last year Oregon St. won outright as a 10.5 point dog and that was at USC.  There has been a major correction toward USC and they deserve some respect but it's just too much love now.  The Beavers will have success on the ground and that is the key here and will be the difference to why Oregon St. covers.  

I could be completely off here with Rutgers in this game but Iowa just hasn't shown anything and all of their games have been at home.  They heavily rely on forcing turnovers and field position in order to get any part of separation.  Both teams bring in a good defense here and I really like the fact it's a night game for Rutgers.  Iowa has a huge game on deck with Michigan which they will be looking ahead too.

Ole Miss is getting a ton of respect here and I believe in large part because they are ranked high.  I just don't see the motivation here for them this week to cover such a huge number.  Ole Miss was favored by the same amount vs Troy and since. Tulsa is 1-2. ATS I believe that is giving us good value.

Washington St is undervalued here as I think most are forgetting about the road win @ Wisconsin. Yes, Wazzu was a little lucky in that game but they held Wisky to 14 points at home which is very impressive.  Oregon flat out being over valued because of last weeks blowout win over BYU.  I think Wazzu is live here

This is a dream spot here for James Madison.  App St is off three huge performances.  First, they opened week 1 scoring 40 vs UNC, then went on the road @ Texas AM  for. a huge upset win and then last week with College Gameday they won a Hail Mary pass.  I think this is the ultimate let down spot here for App St and James Madison coming off a bye, I think it's the perfect storm for an upset

This line will be moving to 3 so grab Iowa St now.  I have been nothing but impressed with Dekkers their new QB this year.  This is a major tone setter for the Cyclones this week entering Conference play and I believe they rise to the occasion. Iowa St has major revenge on their mind here from last season as Baylor literally stole this game. According to PFF Cyclones bring in a top 10 overall defense and I think that is what puts them on top

Give me Wake Forest here this weekend.  Last weekend they were in a terrible spot. and managed to survive a scare from Liberty.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game.  PFF actually has Wake Forest rated higher than Clemson and I believe it.  Clemson offense has put up some numbers but he competition has been really poor.  I think Wake is live here for the upset.

I have to take the Titans here.  The look ahead line here was 7.5-8 and now we are getting double digits.  The Giants played good for about one quarter and the Titans couldn't put them away.  Maybe,  worth looking at in the future is fading the Titans as bigger favorites, but for this game catching 10?!  The Bills are great there is no denying that, this line is just inflated big time

Grab Now 

I'm gonna lay it with the Raiders here this week.   I  had. this. one circled and the line movement just confirms that sharp players like it also.  Look, Carr looked bad yes but the Raiders lost to a Chargers team who most consider a top 5 team in the league so can you. really blame them?   Their. defense. was extremely impressive I  thought especially in crunch time.   Cardinals are missing too many players and their defense was exposed.  I think it's a field day for Carr in a nice bounce back spot.  

I was hoping it would hit 3 but probably won't. This is just a classic over reaction to week 1 results which happens every year.  The Giants played pretty sad football 70% of the game but did hang around.  Barkley looked improved but still this is Daniel Jones as a favorite?  Panthers went off favored vs the Browns and lost on a last second 58 yard field goal.  I mean there is nothing wrong with that in fact they had higher odds to win before the kick.  Panthers should have -2 favorite grab this 

The Saints flat out have Tom. Brady's number.  They are 4-0 SU their last 4.  Even Taysom Hill beat them least season.  Saints were in a dog fight vs a division opponent but their.  6.8 yards per play was extremely impressive.  The Bucs might have beat the Cowboys but I though Tamps looked horrible and we all know how bad the Cowboys looked.  Bucs are dealing with quite a bit of injuries and the fact they only put. up 19 given how lopsided that game was should worry people.  Saints win outright.

I know the Patriots looked horrible last week but they were -3 in turnovers as well which never helps.   I had the Steelers in an easy cover and SU win over the Bengals.  Steelers created 5 turnovers but still should have actually lost the game and that was including a pick 6 to start the game.  Pitt. has a bad offense and I trust Belichick to get things straightened up.  Patriots defense was fine last week as Mac did throw a pick 6 also.  I'm not a Mac guy at all but  I  think  he gets things. cleaned up.   Also a 0-1 vs. 1-0 team which I love.

This has the public betting trap written all over it here. This Fresno St team is no joke at all and will move the ball against USC who's defense isn't great. and they really. haven't been tested.  This is their first real test and people will overreact to the conference blowout win over Stanford.  Well, Stanford isn't as good as Fresno take the points. 

Let's take a chance here with UTSA who does have more than capable roster fro ma team who went 12-2 last season.  They have returned 13 starters and have the best QB in the Conference USA.  They have outgunned by opponents but are just 1-1.  I know coming off back to back OT games can be scary but they have this game circled.  Texas is in a horrible spot here off the crushing Alabama loss in which they should have won.  They have Texas Tech on deck also for conference play.  I think Longhorns start slow and are in a dog fight 

I'm buying into the hype here for sure but Kansas is clearly improved team here and the players have for sure bought in and sometimes that's all you need.  Odds makers will also be slow to adjust here for the Jayhawks because they have been bad for so long and no one is rushing to beat them.  I think from last weekend they are live here.

Love the spot here for UAB.  They are coming off an ugly loss last week @ Liberty as a 6 point favorite.  They should be extra hungry here for a perfect bounce back.  We are also getting a great price because of Georgia Southern pulling of the big upset @ Nebraska. UAB is a very good team and this line is a complete overreaction to both result from last week.

The wrong team is favored here in this game.  There is zero doubt that the Rebels are improved but laying points now?  North Texas had a slow start and getting blown out by SMU but they were only a 9 point dog in that game and now they are catching 3.5 vs a UNLV team who has 2 wins the lat two years? North Texas will run it and run it more 

I really like South Alabama here as I backed them last week.  This team can score and have dominated their first two opponents in terms in yards gained.  I think UCLA is really in for one here as they literally have played two of the easiest games you can ask for.  UCLA literally doesn't have a fan base at all so their is 0 home crowd.  Jaguars +16

I will take Texas St here and the points.  Asking Baylor to get this much margin here is quite a bit IMO.  Texas St isn't great by any means but this is more of a play against the situation.  Baylor. is off the double OT loss @ BYU and now have conference on deck with a huge game @ Iowa St next week.  Too many points given the situation

Crazy to me here that the Chargers are catching points.  So the Chiefs looked great against a very beat up Arizona team which now everyone will overreact to Mahomes and company.  He looked great and he is special but laying 4 to this Chargers team?  I know Allen is out tonight and he is a big loss but the Chargers defense is legit here and will present problems.  I also don't think the Chiefs have a special defense by any means to slow down Herbert.  4 points is just too many.

I really like the Cowboys here in this game.  I know both teams have had plenty of injuries to the OL and that is concerning.  Brady is just getting respect here and he deserves that but man he hasn't spent any time with a the new OL being gone all off season.  Bucs defense will be taking a step back this season also. I have this game valued at PK giving us some big time value with the Cowboys here at home.

Wrong team is favored here in this game.  While I know the Packers have a legit defense , this team has a different outlook on offense and I think they will be taking a major step back this season simply because they won't be putting up the points.  The Vikings I love this season and the main reason is because of their coaching change which I think we see the effects of that right away.  This is a team I would play in ML Round Robins also.

I can't believe how much this line has gone up since yesterday.  The Chiefs to me will be a major play against early and often.  Tyreke Hill isn't a guy who walks through the. door everyday.  It will be a major adjustment for Mahomes who is great but still those guys had a special connection that just can't be replaced.  A lot of negative news regarding the Carindals which actually I like in terms of line value.  Cardinals start hot and getting 6.5 is just too many.

I know the betting public will be with me here but I really like this Eagles squad this season.  If Hurts just makes a hair improvement which I fully believe he will then this team has a chance to take a major step forward.  Eagles have weapons across the board here and a huge thing is they have what most consider the best OL in football which is huge for a young QB.  I think there is also a lot of love for the Lions because they covered a ton last season and played tough.  Well, we aren't going against the Lions when they are catching 7 or more but this line is 3.5

I will take the Texans here in this division game to start the season.  I know the Texans roster isn't great by any means but the Colts laying more than a TD here on the road?  Matt Ryan Im not convinced will be the savior here for the Colts.  I think it will be a defensive battle and a low scoring affair here which adds more value to the Texans.  Mills was an underrated rookie QB last season and in fact he threw for the most TD's as a rookie last season.  

The Steelers here are just being disrespected and so is Tomlin.  People forget that this team made the playoffs despite how horrible Big Ben played last season.  Literally anything is an upgrade for them this season and I mean that.  Steelers defense is rock solid and the Bengals hang over Super Bowl loss I think they are a play against most of the season.  Division dog first game I think the. Steelers are live for this potential upset.

I will lay the big number here with Nebraska.  They haven't looked great and are 0-2 ATS. so far but this opponent here in Ga Southern is really bad.  They won 3. games last season and are arguably the wort team in the. Sun Belt.  This is a a perfect get right game for Nebraska and I think they. leave the starters in here. to gain some confidence and rack up easy scores.

I like San Jose here in this matchup.  This is more of a play against Auburn who I am not high on at all this season.  They won 6 games last season in Harsins first year and only have 11 starters back.  Asking them to get a crazy win margin like this is a ton.   I think that is asking them to score 37+ which I dont think they get to.  They also have Penn St on deck which is clearly a big look ahead game for them. 

I like Kentucky here in this game.  I think  both of these teams are much equal across the board but Kentucky has the edge in QB play with Levis who is projected a first round pick.  So much is being made from Florida upsetting Utah last week because of where they were ranked.  Kentucky is 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 meetings here.   

Both teams coming off big efforts.  ODU beat Va Tech last week and generally I look to fade schools like this but I didn't think the line would be double digits here.  ECU almost pulled the upset on top 15 team in NC St last week.  However, there was a big scenario in the game where it flipped.  NC St. had it first. and goal from the 1 and couldn't punch it in to go 14 in the 2nd half.  The whole game turned from there.  ECU is good yes, but winning by double digits here I dont see it.

Central Mich getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because of putting up 44 points against Oklahoma St last week.  Granted that is good against a Power 5 school but they also gave up 58.    The Sun Belt to me is by far a better league than the MAC these days and these two teams are. both equal.  Jags return 14 from last years team who won 5 games but had 4 losses by 7 points or less.  

Late Add

Utah St is a team that has a legit shot to win the Mountain West Conference.  That being said a team with a much talent as they do shouldn't be 40 point dogs to anyone.  This team also returns a ton of experience in 13 starters from a team who won 11 games.  Bama is really good and there is no hiding it.  First game for them though out of the gates and they have to replace a ton especially on defense.  Are they really gonna go score 50+?  Im betting against it

I could be way off on this game but Kentucky and the hype to me is a sell sell sell.  Levis the QB is turning heads and is a highly touted prospect for the next level and with that comes expectations.  Kentucky had a great season last year give them credit but this many points against a more than capable Miami Oh team?  Miami Oh are picked by many to with the MAC East this season and they return Gabbert at QB.  I know its the first game and everyone is looking forward to the season but Kentucky does have Florida next week which is a massive early conference game for them.  Maybe they just do enough here to sneak by and save it for next week

The only big game I'm touching this week.  I have nothing bad to say about Georgia but out of the gates laying 17.5 technically on a neutral field?  The Bulldogs lost legit pros on both sides of the ball and since Stenson is back at QB I think they are getting respect.  The one main take away for me here is that the Bulldogs D coordinator is now the Head Coach for the Ducks.  No one knows the inside and outs of Georgia more than Lanning who takes over.  Whether or not he will succeed I don't know but first game out of the gate he will have a great game plan for them.  If Bo Nix can just be slightly above average and take care of the ball, the Ducks are a loaded team.  

I know this line is inflated based upon the pathetic performance by Wyoming and yes teams make the biggest leap from first to second game.  I just think this Wyoming team is that bad plain and simple.  Illinois had a pathetic offense last season and in fact a lot worse than Tulsa who ranked 28th in passing.  Tulsa has a fifth year starter at QB who can sling it and he won't have any issues moving it down field.  Wyoming is really bad bottom line

One of the rare times I will lay double digit points with a ranked team on the road but I love this NC St team.  I dont consider them a sleeper this season and most shouldn't be surprised if they win the ACC.  17 total starters back which include 10 on defense.  This defense was nasty last season ranking in the top 25 and they should be a top 10 defense this year.  This is the difference in this game here is that the Wolfpack will get stops.  I see a 34-13 type of victory here.  

I love Illinois here in this spot.  I'm not overreacting to week 0 win over Wyoming but they dominated the game.  QB transfer from Cuse in Devito could be what makes Illinois really completive this year and maybe pull an upset or two.  Illinois did win 5 game last season and are improved on both sides of the ball especially offense as I mentioned with the QB upgrade.  I truly believe Indiana is by far the worst team in the Big 10 and they have hardly any starters back from either side of the ball.  Wrong team is favored I expect this line to change 

The Celtics had a wild 4th quarter in which they pretty much didn't miss.  Yes,  they won the game but the Warriors were in control of that for 80% of it.  Warriors I think continue where they left off last game.  They have handled Tatum really well and I don't think the Celtics can keep relying on the 3 ball to get them through