I like Denver here in this spot Sunday night.  First, I could make the case they they are the most motivated team in the league following what took place with with them and the league last week with their QB situation.  I think that really fires them up for this especially against a division rival.  Also worth noting last week when the Broncos faced the Saints with a WR at QB the line was just a couple more points than now.  Chiefs are clearly a public team and I would make the case this is a let down spot for them following two big road game vs Raiders and Tampa now with two big ones on deck with Miami and Saints.  The total here is also 50.5 which everyone will be betting the over giving me more confidence the books know the low score here providing extra value with Denver 

I'm a little surprised here that Seton Hall is an underdog.  This Penn St team has a new coach and lost a ton of talent from last season.  They could easily be the worst team in the big ten and they are laying points?  I have a pretty good feel on this Seton Hall team as they covered vs Louisville and I had them and I was against them Friday in a winner as they lost to Oregon.  Seton Hall's other loss was to Rhode Island.  They have lost to 3 tournament teams so you can fault them for that. 

I like the Cardinals here as now they opinion of them has changed here.  The look ahead line here was a PK and now both teams lose but the Rams get the love and are favored by 3?  I'm not buying this type of reaction.  I think Murray is healthy this week and the Cardinals were pretty unlucky last week @ New England or else I think they are favored here.  This game matters to the Cardinals more here as both teams would have the same record if AZ won.  I know both teams are motivated but to me these teams are equal and I will take AZ

I will take Oklahoma here.  They just have the better athletes here.  This TCU team lost quite bit from last season including Bane who was their do everything type of player.  Those guys dont walk through the door everyday at TCU.  I also think the books are going to be slow to adjust to home court in NCAAB which is why I have no problem laying it here.

This was once a big time rivalry and granted still is for the players but when Mack was at Xavier and Cronin at Cincy both had great coaches and team.  Both teams very much down this season by their standards.  Cincy has only played one game and won by 12.  Xavier won this game last season and are 5-0 right now but they have been very lucky as they won 3 straight games by 1,3 &3.  Cincy gets the job done today

I will take my chances here with Missouri.  They weren't suppose to be very good this season but the win over Oregon does impress me quite a bit as they controlled the game.  I know the Ducks were missing some key players but still you can't fault them for them.  The Shockers are just a big question mark this season.  Im going to give Missouri the benefit of the doubt and say they are much better than most expected so the books will be slower to adjust 

I will take the Browns here in this game.  The Browns are in a role I much prefer them in and that is as a dog.  I think the narrative here is that they are a overrated 8-3 team and while I do believe that I think the Titans though you could make the same case about.  Titans off a huge road division win.  Also the Browns bring in the best running game in the league and I fully think they can control this game.  Also what do the Titans love to do is run the ball as well making less possessions favoring the big dog here.  Browns get Garrett back and we all know the difference he makes on that DL.

So the Raiders here were flat out embarrassed last week scoring just 3 points and got blown out by the Falcons.  I think this is a great bounce back spot for them here as they are very much alive in the playoff race for the AFC.  The Jets were in a great spot last week getting Darnold back and facing a division rival but flat out laid an egg.  Raiders have been a much better road road team this season with a 4-2 record SU and ATS.  Raiders in a great spot and I think we do see the effort following the horrible performance last week

I like the Dolphins here really to put the hammer down the Cincy.  The Bengals had a kickoff return last week and a late one after Jones went out for the Giants.  The fact that they covered they are getting some respect.  I know book makers wouldn't make Dolphins a 2 touchdown favorite but I don't think we all know how bad this Cincy team is now.  Their season is shot and quite frankly you will see their lines get bigger and bigger.  

I'm taking the Colts here in this game.  I think they will be extra motivated here following an ugly loss to the Titans who clearly had revenge on their mind.  The Colts here have a great advantage of running the ball and also return players from the Covid list last week.  Texans lost some key players in Roby on defense but their biggest player outside of Watson in their WR Fueller.  He meant so much to that offense I dont think they are adjusting enough for his loss.  

This ASU team should be extremely hungry here as they have only played one game this season.  In that game they were impressive as they were double digit underdogs @USC and really should have won that game.  UCLA has covered 3 straight now and they are getting respect because of their great performance at Oregon.  I'm just strictly siding with the more motivated team here with the Sun Devils ready to play game number 2.

This is just too many points here in this game.  I think it's clearly inflated because Washington all. of the sudden is now ranked.  This team lost a ton but wins over Oregon St Arizona and Utah put them up.  I'm not buying it now with them laying this number.  They laid the some number against Arizona who is so bad.  Stanford was unfortunate in week 1 @ Oregon as their QB couldn't play and was a later scratch.  They played tough to Colorado who is vastly improved and got their first win last week @ Cal.  I think Stanford hangs around and dont be shocked if they win

I will take all the points I can get here.  I dont think Indiana will lay down despite their QB being out for the season now.  They have a replacement who was a 4star and will be just fine.  This line would have been maybe 4 or so with that QB healthy but adjusting this much is crazy.  Once again do we know how good Wisky is?  I dont think so and Indiana's defense is good. 

I like Iowa St here this week.  I think most are going to look at them in a let down but I seem this totally different.  This team is pumped up and wanna end this on a high note and make a statement entering the Big 12 Championship team.  WVU is a team that has is 6-2 ATS and they have had a nice season themselves.  WVU has played 3 road conference games and have lost them all and only covered one which was pretty lucky @ Texas.  I love the momentum of the Cyclones here and believe they take care of business.  

I think it's fair to say that Oklahoma St has been a pretty lucky team to say the least.  They have some very narrow wins over Iowa St by 3 and Kansas St by 2 in which they could have easily lost both games.  Also with this line not moving at all I think odds makers are telling you a story here.  TCU has won 3 of their last 4 games and their loss was at West Virginia and they were 3 point dogs in that game and now they are roughly getting the same here.  Oklahoma St has failed to cover in 4 straight games.

So this is a strict fade of Texas as last week was a dream crusher to them.  With them losing to Iowa St they wont be able to play for the Conference Championship which is major let down for them and quite frankly why do they care about this game?  Kansas St has played well in this series going 4-1-1 ATS the last 6 meetings.  Kansas St has lost 4 straight games but they are 6-3 ATS this season

I backed Oregon the other night in a loser but. I will go back to them.  I made the mistake and thought for sure a big time scorer in LJ Figueroa would play but he didn't.  Well he is tonight and that is big time addition for this team on both sides of the ball.  Oregon bounces back in a big way tonight 

Both of these teams are equal on my eyes.  Throw the fact it's a neutral court no fans and now you're giving me 5, I will gladly take it.  Ayo and Cockburn for Illinois are a two headed monster and will be a force to mess with all season.  Baylor always has talent that's never the issue but can Catch Drew put it all together and make it into something is what always concerns me.  I see a back and forth but give me there points here

The only thing keep this line low is because Oregon has a couple eligibility issues or else this would be near double digits.  The Ducks are loaded and will win the PAC 12.  Missouri returns a lot but this team was bad last year and they dont have near the weapons.  Im really confused by this line.  Hardy the transfer from UNLV is a huge get here.  Ducks just so much better top to bottom including coaching

WVU is ranked highly and return starters but they quite frankly dont look the part.  They are 3-0 with two covers but came down to the wire.  They haven't played anyone tough and WKU took them down to the wire and they got blown out to Louisville last night.  I think the style of this game benefits the Zags big time and they pour it on

We will definitely see one of Kentucky's worst teams in a long time.  They return 0 starters from last season and quite frankly dont have the big guns they normally bring in.  I was hoping they wouldn't cost to Richmond so we could have got Kansas at a better price.  I just think this year with everything going on it makes it a lot more difficult to gel right away.  I will be looking to play against Kentucky early and often. 

Both of these teams are down compared to what they are use to.  I do like this Duke team a little bit more though.  They only return 2 starters but Johnson is a stud freshman who will continue to emerge as the season goes on.  I think most also will look back at Duke's first game first Coppin St winning only by 10 as a 30 point favorite.  I like Duke to win by 8. 

This is a neutral court game here and I will take Houston and the points.  Texas Tech is the household name here but they lost 3 major starters from last years team.  This Houston team returns 3 key players. that run this offense.  Houston is by far a better team than Memphis and I would think if those two met it would be near a PK so to me the value is clearly with the Cougars.  This Houston team won 24 games last season as well.

This will definetly be a sharp vs public type of game here.  Everyone now has teen Tom Brady in two prime time games simply wet the bed. They will for sure run to grab the Chiefs here based on those. results.   The Chiefs just aren't as good as anyone is making them out to be.  They have now survived back to back close games to the Panthers and Raiders and really could have easily lost both of those.  Chiefs are just 3-2 ATS on the road.  Also the Chiefs don't present a rush defense like the Rams did where Brady will have more time to pick them apart. 

I like the Broncos here in this spot.  They showed me something last week facing a red hot Dolphins team.  Yes, the Saints won and covered as the Falcons and Ryan were an absolute no show. However, I wasn't extremely impressed with Hill at all and just think since they covered this line is inflated.  The Saints only scored 24 on a very bad Falcons defense.  Denver is much better here and also the Saints have the Falcons again next week.  Weird spot for the Saints to be in here, I will take the points with Denver.

yea, the Cardinals haven't looked great the last few weeks and were extremely lucky against the Bills.  I think though we are getting a very cheap price here with them.  Murray is still having a great year and with the Patriots result last week it tells me they have thrown in the towel on the season.  That Texans team is flat out horrible and the Patriots were a no show.  Cardinals have a lot riding on their season and following a Thursday night loss with extra time to prep here I think they win this one and cover the short number.

I am really shocked this opened this low.  Last week the Vikings opened up a 7 point favorite vs the Cowboys and I had Dallas as they won outright.  Well now you're telling me that this Panther team without McCaffrey and possible a backup QB are better than Dallas?  No way I'm buying that at all.  Cook is going to have a field day against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.  I know Thelin is on the Cover list but it shouldn't matter.  I really love this bounce back spot for Minnesota as they still have a legit chance at the playoffs. 

I had the Colts last week as they won and covered against the Packers in OT.  The Titans also won and covered abasing the Ravens in OT.  I really like these quick division revenge games.  These teams met just two games ago on a Thursday and the Colts really took it to them.  I think everyone will jump back on board them here.  The Titans still put up 157 on the ground vs this good Colts defense so I think the score was pretty misleading.  Tannehill played a horrible game which is what cost them.   This is a FG either way at most and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won at their place this time around 

Alright the Chargers finally got win and now. lets back them here.  Every single game they have lost has been one possession.  The Chargers you could make the case for here that they are the best 3-7 team ever.   This team has talent across the board and I think will present problems for the Bills and their weak defense.  Buffalo coming off their bye probably feeling pretty fat and happy right now with a 7-3 start.  Their whole division just lost last week so giving them more cushion.  This isn't a Bills team I think should be laying near touchdowns to many teams at all.  They also play a. ton of close games as 6 of their. last 7 have been by one possession.  

I'm taking the Jets here in this game.  If you have watched the Dolphins since Tua has been starting you know they have been pretty lucky since a lot of their touchdowns have came fro their defense.  Tua got benched last week but now are starting again.  There. is plenty of film out and I think with this being a division game the Jets will be motivated.  Jets were also skinned 24-0 in the first meeting which I think provides a little extra edge as well. 

I believe the Aggies here will be able to name their score.  This LSU team brings in one of the worst defenses in the country and I think Jumbo would love to run it up on them.  The main reason I believe that is because last year LSU did that to them winning 50-7.  You better believe they wanna return the favor.  Also LSU has some injuries on defense in the secondary which is a huge concern.  The Aggies have been rolling since the loss to Bama. I think they put their foot down.

I will take Ole Miss here in the Egg Bowl.  You know Lane would love nothing more than to make a big time statement win at home vs new head coach Leach as well.  I just think the talent is clearly on the Ole Miss side here.  Their offense is tough to stop if you remember they scored 48 on Bama.  Granted their defense isn't great but they do make enough plays and any turnover they make you pay for it.  I trust Lane to pull out all the tricks here for a big time win for this team. 

This is an ugly game for sure but does Northwestern really deserve to be laying this many points on the road?  They are off a huge win over Wisconsin which I did back them last week in that win.  This sets up for a let down here especially given the fact that Michigan St has looked bad.  I will give them a bump here because they are coming off their bye and surely will have a different type of gameplay here going forward.  I dont see NW really scoring a ton as they only have one game over 27 points.  If they get to that number I love Michigan St to hang tough here.

I will take my chances here with Texas St getting all these points against everyones favorite team right now.  Coastal has covered every game so far this season and the betting public can't get enough of them.  They had a late pick six last week in order to. cover.  Texas St is off a nice win as an underdog over Arkansas St.  In fact Arkansas St have covered 4 straight games.  Also this game last year was Coastal -7 at home vs Texas St.  This line is clearly inflated.  Give me Texas St.

Here is another situation where I wonder how hard it will be for Oklahoma St to bounce back from.  They didn't just lose to Oklahoma last week they were beat down.  Those losses can have a big effect on a team.  Texas Tech is an interesting team as they have played a tough schedule.  They lost @Iowa St and Kansas St and were smaller dogs in both those games.  I think both those teams are better than Oklahoma St and that was a healthy K St team before they lost their QB.  Oklahoma St escaped wins vs Iowa St and Kansas St or else this could easily be a team that has lost 4 straight.  I think they are overrated.  

I like Maryland here in this spot.   This team will be extremely hungry as they haven't played for the last two weeks.  I think we. dont know how improved this. team is.  They won. as 17 point dogs and 25 point dogs vs Minnesota and Penn  St.  Granted neither of those teams are great but they still won outright.  Indiana is coming off their Super Bowl facing Ohio St last week and they gave it their all only losing by 7.  I just think for. them to get back up here is extremely difficult.   Also Indiana has a major look ahead next week @ Wisconsin.

I will lay the short number with Colorado here.  Bottom line is Kansas St is one of the worst power 5 teams in the country and this Colorado team is a border line NCAA Tournament team.  The Buffs return 3 starters from a team that won 21 games last season.  I think you can fade Kansas St early and often here as the books might be slow to adjust to this team.

I really love UNI here today.  Both of these teams are 0-2 but they are a different type of 0-2.  Utah St which lost a lot for last season wasn't competitive at all in either game and played easier teams.  UNI lost two nail biters and could have easily won both.  UNI is the better team here and I think they win this easily.

Both teams here lost quite a bit from last season but Louisville only returns 1 starter.  People are just a lot higher on Louisville than I am this season.  I think they are the 5th to 6th best team in the ACC and quite frankly that means that dont deserves to be laying this many points with so many question marks.  Seton Hall lost their fair share as well but I think the difference here will be with Harvard transfer kid who averaged 22ppg.  Also worth nothing remember there is truly no home court advantage right now.  I think both of these teams are equal so give me the points. 

I just think this line is crazy.  Nebraska goes from a two touchdown favorite to a two touchdown dog?  That is a big time. overreaction.   I'm not saying they dont have their issues but really?   Iowa's offense isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard as they have benefitted big time in their last 3 games from turnovers.  This is a big rivalry game. and I think Frost will have them ready to  play.  Iowa will. look to. dominate on the ground like always.   This line was only.  3.5. last season and Iowa had a better team than they do. now.

I was on the Cowboys last week as they beat the Vikings straight up as a 7 point underdog.  The thing here is now Dalton is back healthy and more comfortable.  This  Cowboys team still has a ton of talent and that was on full display.  They beat literally one of the hottest teams in the league and that says something.  This Cowboys team still believes they can win this division and why not. I'm going to ride the momentum here of that win and believe it carries over here.  Dallas had their worst game of the season vs the. Football Team in scoring 3 points.  Cowboys out for some revenge on Thanksgiving.

UCLA returns its top 5 scorers from last season and now with Cronin in year 2 I think we see the Bruins. make a big leap here.  They were one of the hottest teams in the country on the back half. of last season.  They have added a couple transfers as well.  They are a legit contender to win the PAC 12 and this is a discount.  SDSU was a great story last season give them credit but they lost several pieces from that mix including Flynn who was their glue guy and just got drafted.  SDSU takes a major step back. 

This Tennessee Tech team is literally one of the worst in the Ohio Valley winning just 9 games last season.  I think they are way in over their heads here vs a very talented Indiana team.  The Hoosiers are a sleeper team in the Big Ten and return 4 starters.  They have quality. depth and some studs coming in.  This game quite frankly shouldn't be a contest. at all.

I'm going with experience here in this game.  Miss St lost their 4 leading scorers from last season including a draft pick.  It's a big time rebuild here for them this season.  Mostly anywhere you look they are predicated near last in the SEC.  That really says it all.  This is a neutral court game and Clemson does return 4 starters and a couple transfers.  This Clemson experience beat some quality teams last year like Duke Louisville and Florida St.  

I know this looks like a big number on a neutral court but the price IMO is still too low.  This Memphis team lost Wiseman to the NBA but the other 4 starters are back along with a couple transfers and some impact freshman.  The talent gap here is huge.  St Marys is going to have a done year only returning 2 starters and they won't even be nearly as good from the outside as they were last season.  Memphis wins easily

I really like the Chiefs here in this spot Sunday night.  They have had this game circled on the schedule since they lost to them.  In. fact it has been the only. team to lose as a double digit favorite this season.  We all know Andy Reid is by far the best coach in the league or world for that matter off the bye.  The. Chiefs will be taking big time shot down the field to. expose that Raiders secondary.  I think they build a lead and that changes the Raiders gameplay as they want to control it on the ground again.  Mahomes and company make a statement win.

I like the Colts here in this game.  This is a team I really haven't looked to back much because of Rivers, but I think they are underrated right now.  This defense can flat out play and they are playing with a ton of confidence.  I think the Packers are extremely overrated and it proved last week as they struggled with a horrible Jags team.  Their defense is an issue but in large part it hasn't been shown because of their level of competition.  Indy can control the game on the ground here which I think is the key.  Also give me the way better D ,Colts win this game and cover the short number.

I like the spot here for the Cowboys.  yes, their defense is awful but I believe this is the ultimate sell high spot on the Vikings right now.  They have won and covered 3 straight games and all of these were against division teams.  Cowboys are off the bye now and do have some players healthy on defense.  I could really see the Vikings struggling out of the. gate here on the short week.  This is also one of those games that a lot of people will be picking in survivor pools.  If you follow that closely you know that in recent weeks teams that will be most selected have flat out struggled big time win the game example Packers last week.  Cowboys are a live dog 

I know Darnold is out in this game but I the Chargers laying double digits?  This is simply just too many points here. The Jets have covered 2 of their last 3 games and I have to question where the heads of the Chargers are after yet another single digit loss and essentially being eliminated from the playoffs last week.  Also the Chargers were favored by 8 over the Jags and covered but that was extremely misleading as the Jags lead that game late in the 3rd.  I wouldn't be shocked here if the Jets did something crazy and won this game.  They dont wanna be that team that has zero wins so I still think they will put forth an effort.

I'm adding the Football team here in this game today.  Cincy was in a great spot last week off their bye and flat out failed to show. Yes, the Football team got down. @ Detroit by 21 but clearly there is a lot of fight left in them and that is what you're looking for with these kind of teams. late in the season.  They fought back tied it and had a chance to win.  Also worth noting is the fact that the Football team has such a much better defense and they will be coming at Burrow left and right as he has one of the worst OL in the league

let's take Oklahoma here.  I just think this is a discount on them and in this series.  This has also been a big rivalry that has been extremely lopsided.  Oklahoma has won 5 straight and 7 of the last 8 in this series.  Oklahoma St has only covered twice during that span.  I think OU is now finding their speed as their offense woke up scoring 53,33,62,62 the last 4 games.  I'm not saying they will get that high but they clearly are clicking and this will by far be the best offense that the Cowboys have seen so far.  Oklahoma St has been outgunned 3 games that they have won outright.  I think their record is a little misleading given that.  OU rolls here

Grab this one now as I think we see sharp money move this as the week goes along.  Everyone will love Liberty here as they are ranked and undefeated and catching points.  Everyone will also remember the fact that they went on the road @ Va Tech and pulled the upset as a 14.5 point dog.  Well clearly now they are getting some respect.  NC played at Va Tech also and was only a 6.5 point dog so based on those lines this one should be 8 so we are getting a discount because of Liberty's undefeated record.  Also the fact that NC St won't be looking past them because of that win over Va Tech

I can't believe this line at all.  Tennessee is 2-4 and have lost 4 straight but that has them extremely undervalued here.  They lost to Georgia and Bama in 2 of those games so you can't fault them there.  I also think this Auburn team is overrated as they won two games vs Arkansas and Ole Miss that they shouldn't of based on calls.  They are getting a ton of respect because of. their most recent performance vs LSU.  Auburn has Bama on deck which is their biggest game of the year every year.  Tennessee is a live dog here

I like Iowa St here.  I know this a role that Campbell hasn't great in being favored by double digits.  I just think Kansas St wills struggle here with their. backup QB who. has 5. TD's and 5 interceptions. since. stepping in.  He clearly isn't anything special and I believe struggles big time against this Iowa St defense.  Both teams are off the bye.  Iowa St will be motivated here still playing for. the conference title hopes and also a. revenge game from last season.  

All I have heard all week is how Wisconsin is going to just beat down Northwestern.  When I hear these types of statements it always makes me look the other way.  First, do we actually know how good Wisky is by beating Illinois and Michigan?  Second odds makers are saying that Northwestern and Michigan are even based on the two lines this week and last.  There is no way I believe that at all.  This has been a series dominated by the dog going 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings.  Badgers 1-5 ATS L6 games @ Northwestern

I will take the points here but I also dont mind Penn St on the ML.  I know most will question how much Penn St will have any interest but I still think Franklin will get them to play hard here.  This team outgunned Nebraska by over 200 yards and lost another game as they did the same vs Indiana.  If you have. watched Iowa you can't trust Petras their QB at all here.  He has 3 TD's to 4 INT's this season which is horrible considering who they have played.  Penn St defense is just outside the top 25 against the run which is what Iowa likes to do.  Wrong team is favored here

I normally don't look to play teams laying this big of number but I can't pass Nebraska up here.  I think Frost knows the importance here of rally opening up the playbook and really try and put it on Illinois.  I think this because of Mccaffrey running the show now and he just brings something different to the table that Martinez doesn't.  The team clearly responded with him and I think that is huge for them going forward.  We see them open it up here build some confidence and put it on this bad Illinois team. 

Coming later

So we are seeing the lowest total on the board this week and getting a dog of more than touchdown?  Yes, we. can all agree the.  Patriots are down and they needed a. comeback against the Jets as. everyone witnessed.  Alright, flip this situation and ask yourself. do you like what you. have seen from Baltimore on offense so far? I think it's safe to say that Baltimore can score around mid 20's.  To me if that's the scenario, then worst case that the Patriots are live for a back door even if they only have 14 points.  I trust Bellichick here in a prime time game to have his team ready

I like the Bengals here in this spot.  We all can clearly agree that Pitt is no where. near as good as their undefeated record.  Last week they struggled big time. against a pathetic Cowboys defense.  The Steelers offense has scored over 300 the last 3 games and I think this is difficult here for them coming off three 3 straight road games as well.  Cincy is fresh off their bye and had a big win going into their. bye week.  I look for the momentum to carry them. here.  Burrow is the real deal and he will move the. ball on them.  

Everyone right now seems to love the Dolphins.  Yes, they have been a nice surprise to say the least.  I. just think now we are seeing them in a role that they are use to being in.  This will only be the 2nd time all season that they have been favored and it was against the Jets the first time.  Yes, the Chargers have lost several close games but I think they rise to the occasion here.  Miami has multiple injuries at RB and WR.  I also think the fact that Miami keeps scoring defensive TD's has them inflated.

Alright this is a big time bounce back spot here for Detroit.  They  have lost.  back to back games but right now IMO they are playing the worst team in football in the Football team with the. fact that Alex Smith is now their starting QB.  This offense is just brutal and while. Smith's comeback story is nothing short of phenomenal but he has looked flat out terrible and simply isn't mobile.  Detroit here isn't eliminated from playoff contention yet and I think they bounce back with a big one in a great spot.

So this is a classic type of game here.  San Jose St historical has been one of the worst teams over the last how many years now.  Well they. are now 3-0 SU and ATS and getting all sorts of love right now.  This is the first time in like 40 years that San Jose St has been 3-0.  Their starting QB is also in question here which is worth noting.  UNLV. has yet to win a game and also yet to cover.  I think that has them extremely under valued here.  UNLV is now catching more point to a worse team than they have played so far.  I like all these points here

Boy this line sure is a weird one.  South Carolina was just catching less points against a legit top 15 in Texas AM.  This is a huge overreaction especially given the fact that Ole Miss has the worst defense in the league and they only have two wins as well.  I trust South Carolina here in a great bounce back spot vs a bad team here.  

Here is another spot where we have a unranked home favorite vs a ranked road dog.  I know SMU is a solid team and Im not. taking anything away from them.  I think people don't trust Tula simply because they haven't played as many games only 4.  They are coming off another bye week as well. Remember when they were suppose to play Cincy they were -3 favorites.  We all know how good Cincy is so I feel like we are getting a discount here with Tulsa.  Tulsa has won 4 of the last 6 in this series and the two they didn't win they still covered. 

This one is a head scratcher to me.  Northwestern is now ranked but they have beat Maryland, Iowa and Nebraska and the Iowa and Nebraska game were both coin flips.  I think the wrong team is favored here.  Purdue didn't play last week so they. have extra time to prepare here.  Also Purdue might be without. their  stud Moore but they. already. beat Iowa without him week 1.   I like Purdue to get the win outright here

This is the biggest let down of the season and probably will be throughout the season with Notre Dame here.  We all saw everyone storm the field last week after they took down Clemson in OT.  It was a pretty lucky comeback as they scored TD with under a minute left.  This BC team is the real deal here.  They are 5-3 SU and ATS.  It was no surprise that last week they barely won against Cuse as they were looking ahead to this game.  Also worth noting that BC QB is a Notre Dame transfer.  Talk about motivation. 

I like Sparty here in this game as Indiana is definitely very fat and happy.  Who would have thought just two weeks that the Hoosiers would be laying a TD on the road. here?  This seems to. be a big time overreaction here.  Sparty got blown out last week @ Iowa as it was a get right game for Iowa.  I'm buying Indiana at all here if you remember game 1 they were outgunned big time by Penn St and should have lost that game.  I think Sparty is live here to. win outright

I love the Bucs here Sunday night.  They clearly had this game circled as we saw their no show performance on Monday night against the Giants.  I love this spot for the Bucs because they have this game circled as. they lost week 1 and it was Brady's fault as he threw. the pick 6 that sealed the game.  I also think the betting public will love that. Thomas and Sanders will be back this week so they think the Saints will score well I dont it see it that way.  The Saints O and Brees check downs dont scare the Bucs.  I trust Bucs in the revenge game 

I like the Cardinals here in this game.  I like people are going to big time overreact to what they saw vs the Rams last week.  The Dolphins were very lucky having multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns.  The offense couldn't get over 200 total yards for the game.  Now, they dont have a running game at all with cluster injuries at that position.  AZ coming off the bye week and the look ahead line last week was 6.  There is no reason to downgrade the Cardinals for not playing.  I think they roll here in this spot.  

I think the betting public will love them some Raiders here this week.  Yes the Raiders have surprised a lot of people this season but I also think they are over valued here as the look ahead line was the Chargers -3 last week.  So with Vegas winning and Chargers losing in horrific fashion no one will want the Chargers who could easily be above 500 here.  I think this is the ultimate rally the troops game as the coaches will be preaching they still have a chance at the playoffs if they win this game which they do.  A loss here would mean season over.  max effort here for the Chargers. 

I like the Panthers here in this game.  First, they return their stud CMC and he clearly matches up very well against the Chiefs here as they struggle against the run.  The Chiefs I doubt are that interested here as their bye week is looming.  Carolina and Teddy will take. care of the ball which is. why he covers. so well as a dog.  They have the longer week to prepare here coming off Thursday night.  I see Carolina scoring in the 20's which will be enough to cover here easily.  

I like the Titans here which won't be a popular pick by any means.  Let's look at it as the Bears are 5-3 and 5-3 ATS and everyone loves their defense as it keeps them in games.  I think oddsmakers are clearly tilting their hand here to what they feel about the Bears.  The Bears also have big time cluster injuries on their OL that is already one of the worst in the league.  Titans are undervalued here and they do score 30 ppg.  With the Titans losing to the Bengals last week everyone will write them off.  I love them this week.  Bears also off an OT loss which is more difficult 

I know I missed a better number here with Stanford but I still like them at this price.  I think. people just tend to think Oregon is this high flying scoring offense.  This team lost Herbert and we see how good he is now in the NFL and I just think it's tough for them to replace him.  Also Oregon has a lot of key players sitting out this season because of COVID so they have inexperience everywhere for a team laying this many points.  They also have a new OC as well.  I trust Stanford and Shaw here in a nice bounce back season.  

I think now is the perfect time to fade the Razorbacks here.  They area perfect 5-0 ATS this season and now are being over valued plain and simple.  Their two wins are against Ole Miss and Miss St who are both ugly teams.  The Vols have lost 3 straight and that has them extremely underrated.  However, two of those losses were against Georgia and Bama so you can't fault them here.  I expect a motivated Vols team here off the bye 

Every year we see this Clemson team really play down to their competition and that is the wake up. call they need.  Well last week their stud Lawrence has COVID backup QB now in and they were missing several key starters on defense.  Well they had this huge look ahead and just won the game but didn't look pretty.  Notre Dame will be a popular dog pick this weekend based on everything I mentioned.  I think they are highly overrated and have escaped some ugly teams so far.  This Clemson D is legit and Book for. ND won't know what hit him.  Clemson wins easy

I like South Carolina here in this spot.  I have been pretty spot on here with both of these teams this season.  I think this line is inflated.  The Aggies are getting a lot of respect and I think it's because they beat Florida a few weeks back.  The Gamecocks are a lot better than getting credit for and I believe it's because of their last game @ LSU when LSU was due for a big time performance.  South Carolina is now off their bye and are allowing some fans which I think is crucial here for this big game.  Give me the points here

I like Florida here in this game. First, I think they have the better athletes here on both sides of the ball.   I thin both of these teams are equal which adds value to the the 3.5 here.  Florida's defense might be a little suspect for some but I trust them to handle an offense who isn't exactly lighting it up.  Bulldogs on O have a lot of question marks for me look at last week only scoring 14 against a bad Kentucky team.  Florida offense though will be something that Georgia hasn't seen.  Yes, they played Bama but this Gators offense is scary good.  They are averaging 42 ppg and I think will put the Bulldogs out of their comfort zone in style of play.  I will take the 3.5 that's on a neutral field here 

This one really stood out to me.  Who is TCU exactly to be laying near double digits?  I mean Kansas St was only favored by 1 over Tech and that was @ Kansas St was at home.  Now Tech is catching 9.5 at a worse team?  This seems to be an overreaction here with TCU beating a very bad Baylor team.  Tech is more than capable here of winning this game outright.  History in this series proves that as well as only one game since 2015 that this series has been. decided by more than 3 points.  

I had Northwestern in a winner last week vs Iowa as they won outright.  I honestly wasn't extremely impressed with them as I think Iowa is a bad football team.  I also will make the case that this is a extremely motivated Nebraska group here and they didn't get to play last week because of COVID with Wisconsin.  So they are very hungry here following that loss to Ohio St.  They actually hung tough for the. first half.  I think this line drops closer to kick.  Will take the points 

I know this is an ugly one here but I will take the Bears.   First, no one will want anything to do with. them after the Monday showing where they didn't score a TD on offense.  Well, this line is clearly inflated here and the Saints are no good.  What the Saints love to do the Bears D will be able to control in Karmara.  I also think worth noting that the Bears were pinned deep a handful of times inside their own 5 which is difficult for any team.  Great bounce back spot and I think the Bears really put forth a big effort.

I will take Seattle here in a nice bounce back spot.  I was against them last week on the Sunday night game and they lost in OT.  The thing is though they could have easily covered if it weren't for the personal foul on the field goal that resulted in a first down.  They also had a TD called back in OT.  So they had several things go against them in covering and off a loss I trust Wilson.  I think San Fran is getting a ton of respect here for the last two weeks beating the Rams and Patriots.  San Fran still has a ton of injuries and I like Seattle in this spot.

This line here is one of the biggest knee jerk reactions we are seeing.  So I had Denver and lost last week but the Chiefs have 3 defensive/special teams TD which is super lucky.  In fact Denver out gained KC for the game.  The Chargers were 8.5 point favorites over the Jags last week and Jacksonville was actually leading late in the third so with the Chargers covering it was misleading on their end.  So they are saying that if this game were played in @ LA that the Chargers would be favored by nearly the same as the Jags?  No way not buying it.  Denver bounces back here.  Herbert is good but being a road favorite now against a division rival?  Denver is the play here

The Titans. just suffered their first lost to the Steelers but this team is vastly overrated IMO.  Let's look at their first 3 wins.  They beat the Broncos by 2, Jags by 3 and Vikings. by 1.   I mean these are bottom team who they barely beat.  Also they were favored by 3 @ Minnesota and I think this Bengals team is better than them right now.  The Bengals should have won last week as the Browns scored with just seconds left in the game.  Burrow is the real deal and the Titans D isn't anything special.  This is simply way too many points here

This will clearly be a sharp/square game here.  Everyone and their mother will be all over the Steelers here as they are undefeated.  I just love this situation for the Ravens coming off the bye week.  It's interesting to me how really not many are talking about this team at all right now.  I'm not taking anything away from Pitt but lets look at the lines.  The Titans were favored by 1.5 over them and you are telling me that the Ravens are. only 2 points better than Tennessee?  I dont buy that clearly.  I think Ravens win this easily

I believe this is the buy low spot on the Bills.  They didn't look good at all last week vs the Jets but that game was extremely misleading as the Bills outgained them by over 200 yards but couldn't find the end zone.  I just think the Patriots had the perfect situation last week and quite simply failed to respond.  They were coming off a bad loss to the Broncos at home and had the chance to respond vs the Niners and failed to. against all the. injuries. they have.  Buffalo I believe shows this division is now theirs in a big way

This is just a great spot here to back the Dolphins.  I know many will have questions about why make this. move to Tua so early considering the Dolphins have a legit chance to make the playoffs.  To me it shows the confidence they have in him.  I also think this is the worst spot for the Rams here.  First, they are on a short week coming off the MNF win over the Bears, but their travel schedule has just been brutal as this is their 5th time on the east coast of the season which is a ton. They have their bye week following and I think this is the ultimate let. down spot here.  Miami will be more motivated coming off their bye.

I was on North Carolina last week in an easy win and cover against NC St as they nearly put up 600 yards of offense.  This team had their wake up call losing to Florida St as a double digit favorite.  I just think their offense is going to be hard for Virginia to keep up with.  The Cavs dont exactly light up the scoreboard averaging just 23 points while UNC is just over 38.  The Cavs also have a big time issue of taking care of the ball.  I think with them trying to keep up will cause problems and lead to some turnovers.  

Grab Now...

This is a vastly improved Missouri team.  I have back them their last two games in both winning and covering efforts.  This team is clearly playing. with some major confidence.  I also think this is the right spot. for them even though Florida is coming off the bye.  Well, Florida had a bunch of Covid issues and not sure how much practice they have had which is a concern.  Throw in the fact that they have a major look ahead in Georgia next week and I think Mizzou can. keep. it within this number.  Florida's defense has been very bad so far this season.

I really like that spot here for the Hokies.  They are coming off their worst performance of the season losing as a double digit favorite against Wake Forest.  On the other hand Louisville is coming off by far their best performance by waxing Florida St.  They also got Florida St at the right time with them coming off that big win over UNC from the previous week.  Va Tech is now a lot healthier as they had Covid go through the team.  I really like the bounce back spot here for the Hokies 

This line really says it all about what odds makers think of Oklahoma St.  I had Iowa St last week and grabbed an early number and they covered.  Iowa St shot themselves in the foot more than Oklahoma St won that game.  Texas has the better defense here plus I think this is a big time game moving forward for Coach Herman and staff.  Longhorns. get the so called upset here

I was against Iowa last week in a winner and I will be against them again here.  It's clear to me that oddsmakers dont think highly of this team.  Last week Purdues head coach was announced out and their best play Moore was late in the week and the line didn't move at all.  Thats a telling sign to me.  NW beat up on a bad Maryland team and did what they had to.  I think NW will control the clock here as the Iowa defense is not very good.  NW has revenge on their mind from last season.  This is a veteran group and I think they are better team.

BC is a very much improved team this season and their record indicates that sitting at 4-2.  Clemson is the best team in football right now and I dont think its close.  that's why when going against them you need to pick your spots.  They have their biggest game of the year on deck @ Notre Dame next week and I think they just coast here.  Every year as well they always have a game where they let a team hang around.  I just really like the spot to take all the points here with BC.

So here we have a classic example here.  The road dog and ranked team in Kansas St is 4-1 and an underdog? Hmmm everyone will love Kansas St and that is exactly what makes me like the other side.  Kansas St first has a backup QB and this will be his first true road test.  Also Kansas St some would consider lucky as they have been outgunned in every game but the Kansas game.  WVU on the other hand has outgained every opponent but have two losses.  The spot as well is in big time favor for WVU as they are coming off a loss and have this game circled and. Kansas St has a big game on deck with undefeated Oklahoma St coming to town

I will take the Cardinals here as they were flexed to the Sunday night game.  Seattle is getting way too much respect here for me.  So oddsmakers are saying that the Cardinals would be 6.5 or more point dogs @ Seattle suggesting that AZ is worse than the Vikings?  No way that is the case.  Seattle has been very very lucky to say the least.  Murray will expose this very bad defense with some big time plays. This is way too many points here.  This game will easily be one of sharp vs square games 

I really like the Broncos here in this game.  This team showed me a lot last week going into New England and winning outright.  In fact the game wasn't even as close as the final score might indicate.  They have the injury bug but are now getting some pieces back on defense which is key vs the Chiefs.  This is a short week for KC against a division rival and throw in the fact it's suppose to snow a lot, I think Denver can really keep this close.

I'm going to lay it here with the Patriots in a great bounce back spot.  This team was simply flat last week and you can blame a lot of that on not being able to practice and prepare and it clearly showed.  This Niners team is coming off a big win over the Rams but exactly how good are the Rams?  There is no one that Belichick can prepare more for than a QB that he use to have.  Both teams are battling some injuries but I do trust Cam and Belichick more here

Coming later

I like the Browns here in this spot.  I think most will be scared to back the Browns here as they were blown out against the Steelers last week.  I think this is the perfect spot and match up for them here.  The Browns love to establish the run and no better team to do so than against the Bengals.  The Bengals did cover in the first meeting with a gross and meaningless backdoor.  Bengals are banged up right now and I like the bounce back spot here for the Cleveland