Rockets come off a big Christmas win vs the Spurs and the Pelicans come off a heartbreaker in losing in OT @ Miami.  I really expect the Pelicans to bounce back here and this is a good spot here begging for people to take the Rockets.  The Spurs had a terrible night shooting just 40% which ob benefitted Houston and it wasn't because the Rockets play defense because we know they don't.  Houston is just 6-8 on the road.  Underdog is 14-6-1 ATS L21

Another game going against the team who played on Christmas Day.  I was on the Heat yesterday but they were extremely lucky.  Miami 5-11 ATS after a win while Orlando is 12-4 ATS off a win.  Magic are a great home team with a 10-5 SU record.  Heat just 4-5 SU on road.  Magic will be very motivated as they are young and and still don't get the respect that big brother Miami does.  

We are getting good value here with the Hornets who have been struggling without Al Jefferson.  He returns tonight which is big.  Hornets have only won and covered in 1 of the last 6 games and Al was out for 5 of those.  Hornets are still a quality home team 11-5 SU and Memphis is just 7-9 SU on road.  Hornets are 4-1 ATS L5 with at least 2 days rest.  Memphis isnt playing great by any means either just 3-5 SU L8 

Washington is another young team lead by stud freshman QB Jake Browning.  The biggest thing in this matchup is we get a PAC 12 vs the Conference USA.  I'm not high at all on CUSA and even though stats show Southern Miss with a great offensive stats they are misleading due to quality of competition.  Washington has the best defense in the Pac 12 and clearly won't be anything that Southern Miss is use to.  WKU runs a similar offense to Washington and Southern Miss gave up nearly 600 total yards!  

This line is very misleading IMO for the simple fact that the average Joe recognizes the name Marshall.  Marshall also comes out of Conference USA which is way easier than the American which is where UConn comes out of.  UConn the 2nd to last game of the season gave Houston their only loss which was very impressive.  With the conference situation I have explained I clearly believe that Marshall's stats are inflated with an easy schedule and that UConn's are more realistic and we are getting value based on perception of a name.  

I know this isn't a popular choice but I really believe we are getting great value here with the Lakers.  The Clippers haven't been exactly clicking as of late either losing 3 in a row.  The Lakers are clearly a bad team team but their average loss at home is by 7 points and we are getting double that which is very rare in the NBA plus I think this high line has a lot to do with the blowout loss vs the Thunder.  The other reason here is simply Kobe Bryant.  This is his last Christmas day game with a huge stage.  I truly believe Kobe will have his teammates ready to play and expect a jaw dropping performance tonight.

This is a great spot to fade the Spurs on a big stage where the betting public will be all over them.  They have been playing great winning and covering 7 in row.  However, the Rockets have been playing better at home going 5-0ATS L5.  This series is also one that the home team has been dominating lately.  Home team is 6-0 ATS L6 and the Spurs are 0-5 ATS L5 meetings @ Houston.  

The Heat come into this game losing to the Pistons at home and are due for big bounce back vs the Pelicans.  The Pelicans have won and covered the last two games and that is why this line is low.  I still don't believe in this team even though their players are back.  They still only beat the below average teams.  Heat will be the motivated team here for sure as they are 7-3-1 ATS after a loss. Pelicans are just 1-5 SU following a win and their average loss on the road coming by 9 points 

UNI needed that wake up call last night.  Now they will be more settled in and also focused to get a W.  Washington St was blown out last night vs OU.  They played Gonzaga at home thats the only tough game they have played and lost by 9.  UNI is obviously battled tested with their resume.  Wash St 1-6 ATS L7 following a loss of 20 or more and 2-5-1 ATS on neutral site games.  UNI 10-1 ATS neutral site games and 4-0ATS following and SU loss 

We are getting great value here with a potential final four team.  Yesterday my free pick was Hawaii and was dead on as they caught UNI in a great spot.  Now we are seeing a low line because of that win and also on their home court.  Oklahoma is the better team and should take care of busines.  Hawaii just 2-7 ATS vs teams with a winning record

The Magic are quietly going about their business they are 16-12 and 9-5 at home.  Houston comes into this game extremely over valued because of their 3 game winning streak.  They beat the Lakers then caught Clippers in a great spot and won in last 20 seconds vs Hornets.  I'm still not convinced in this team.  Orlando is 11-2-1 ATS L14 And are 10-4 SU.  Magic continue to be undervalued simply because they don't have a "superstar".  

We are getting a great short line here with a home that is 11-4 SU.  Why this line is low is because Hornets have dropped 2 straight on the road but they will be the motivated team here.  The Hornets also lost to the Celtics just a little over a week ago at home.  Hornets are 10-2 ATS after allowing 100pts or more previous game. 

This line is low here with the Wizards winning and covering 2 in a row.  However, I believe all the injuries will catch up with them tonight.  That's why the line was begging for Washigton.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS with zero days rest.  Wizards 1-5 ATS L6 following SU win

NBA Play Of The Day

Raptors come here losing to the Kings at home and that is why we are seeing a generous line.  The Mavs are just 8-7 on the road but the teams they have beaten on road are lower tier teams.  Raports will be very motivated here after playing poor just like the Celtics last night.  Raptors are 5-1ATS L6 following a ATS loss showing they have good bounce back.  Mavs are just 1-4 L5 ATS following a SU win 

The question in this game is can Iowa St bounce back from losing to UNI.  I dont believe Uowa St is as good as the average person may think.  They had an extremely lucky comeback over rival Iowa at home.  Iowa St relies a lot on the 3 and they are without for the rest of the season IMO their biggest threat Naz Long.  Oddmake saying Cincy is only 2 point fav on neutral court I believe higher. This is a big game for Cincinnati also I love they way they play defense which is why I like them here

I'm laying the points here and my angle is similar to yesterday's in which I had USF but the field goal kicker was costly.  Anyways,  Temple has played a lot tougher schedule than and Toledo and the pass happy MAC team.  Temple is a quality football team on both sides and that is what will be the difference here.  Toledo is getting respect because they did beat Bowling Green and Arkansas which most people remember.  Toledo also has a new coach for this game and I don't like that for these games personall.  Expect Temple to slow them down control the clock and play solid defense 

The Clippers opened here as the favorite but that has changed due to the public betteing the Thunder.  The Clippers were playing pretty good on a long road trip winning 4 out of the 5.  They also gave the Spurs all they could want on Friday and were in a terrible spot Saturday vs Houston and the Rockets took advantage of that.  The Thunder are still only 5-6 SU on the road this season.  I expect a big bounce back here for the Clippers after losing to Houston and that is why we are an overreaction.

Good spot here to back the Jazz after they ended a little skid vs Denver last time out.  The Suns are coming into tonights game after losing to Milwaukee last night.  The Suns are just 4-10 on the road this season and 3-7ATS L10 vs Western Conference opponents.  This series has also be owned by the home team in the previous 5 meetings.  I look for Utah to play solid defense which is what they are known for and make it difficult for the Suns guards Bledsoe and Knight who they rely on heavily in a tough back to back game

This line is set high for a reason and makes you want to take the T Wolves because of their success on the road this season.  Also Boston hasn't winning lately, but they are losing to quality opponents and have been in tough spots.  After Boston's 3 game losing streak they have no had two days off to prepare and expect them to be extremely motivated here.  The T Wolves come off a road win @ the Nets last night but this is now their 5 game in 7 days.  

First Bowl Game Pick!

I like the value we are getting here with South Florida.  Both teams come into this bowl game on winning streaks.  At first glance, most people will look at the records here and pick Western Kentucky because of their 11-2.  South Florida is 8-4 but by far has played the toughest schedule.  South Florida has losses to Florida St Maryland Memphis and Navy.  3 of of those teams teams are extremely tough opponents.  Also South Florida destroyed both Temple and Cincy at the end of the year which is impressive.  Cincy and Memphis are both pass happy teams like WKU USF held them to 27 and 24 which is very impressive considering both those schools have NFL QB prospects.  WKU is a good team not trying to take anything away from them, but it's clear they haven't played any where near the competition USF has.  WKU best wins are against Marshall and Southern Miss who are just ok teams.  Side note, this is also the Miami beach bowl which isn't far from USF and USF current head coach Willie Taggart was formerly WKU's coach for 3 season.  Just a little extra motivation there which is key come bowl season.  

I will keep backing the Magic as the general public still doesn't think this team is good.  Well the Magic are 9-4 and 8-1ATS last 9.  Hawks are just 7-6 SU on the road this season and are coming off a nice win @ Boston, but they caught them in a good spot.  

This line just screams inflated.  After looking at this for a while have to make a play here with San Fran.  The public will be backing the Bengals, but is AJ McCarron really a 6.5 point favorite?  Is he that much better than Gabbert?  I'm not buying it.  Look back at lines with San Fran @ home.  They were underdogs to Seattle by 6.5 Russell Wilson way better than McCarron and they were 7 point dogs to Arizona and Carson Palmer who is obviously way better than McCarron as well.  Seems like to much love for a guy especially when you compare it that way.  How will he handle a true road test?  

This is a great bounce back spot for Miami, playing against a weaker western conference opponent.  Miami lost last as a same favorite against Toronto who is clearly much better than Portland.  We see the value here.  Miami is a solid 11-5 @ home while Portland is 5-11.  Miami 7-3-1 ATS following a SU loss.  

It seems like people are forgetting that the Redskins still have something to play for.  I'm starting to think that after last week with the Bills losing to the Eagles that they are ready to pack it in.  The Bills are just 3-4 on the road this season and so no reason why they should be favored here especially since Washington has the momentum coming off a nice road win @ Chicago last week.  Redskins are a quiet 5-2 @ home this season.  I like backing teams coming off a nice road win and still not getting any love.  

I was on the Jags last week and will be on them again.  I see no reason at all to back Atlanta here who has not only lost 6 in row but have failed to cover in those 6.  Jags are playing with a lot of confidence and coming off a blow out win vs the Colts is nice to see from young team this last in the year.  They clearly haven't thrown in the towel and will be ready for this one.  This is two teams going in opposite directions.  Also note that this is a weird spot for Atlanta after getting blown out by Carolina last week they actually have them on deck for next week.  (revenge)

This won't be a popular choice but once again Giants have a lot of value here.  Coming off a great Monday night performance and another road win team coming home getting points.  There is nothing bad to say about Carolina at all, but remember a few weeks ago when the undefeated Patriots came into town and the Giants should have won that game.  They only lost by 1 and the spread was 7.  So odds makers are saying Patriots are just a -1 point favorite over Carolina on neutral field?  For that reason this line is inflated buy a FG.  

I like the value we are getting here with the Cowboy.  There are coming off a blowout loss @ Green Bay.  Dallas didn't quit in that game which is always a positive this late in season with teams that are below 500.  The Jets are now getting a lot of love but I'm not sold they will blowout Dallas @ Dallas.  Cowboys defense will keep it close look for the upset

NBA Play of the Day

The Bulls come into this game after playing a 4OT game last night in a losing effort vs the Pistons.  The Bulls are just 4-5 on the road this year.  I expect this line to change more as the Knicks should be favored given the spot here.  They have won 3 in a row and are playing with some confidence.  Knicks 10-2ATS L12 following a ATS win.  Knicks 6-0 ATS when playing teams with over a 60% win percentage. 

Not going to go into great detail here but Maryland is by far the superior team.  Princeton has played absolutely no one this year.  They have lost @ Stony Brook and @ St Josephs by double digits I see no reason why Maryland can't put them away early 

No doubt in my mind something is going on with the Rockets.  Thley have laid two eggs in a row @Nuggets and @Kings and see no reason to back them here.  I also like the fact that the Lakers are coming off a nice big win with some momentum to ride on.  

This is a good spot to back the Hornets who just got embarrassed last night @ Orlando.  I expect them to bounce back here and the public will be all over the Raptors.  Raptors lost by 16 last out @ Indiana but won 4 straight prior but 3 of those were against the bottom feeders in the league.  Public eye refuses to give credit to the Hornets but they are 10-4 @ home this year while the Raptors are just 8-6 on the road.  They don't deserve to be favored here

So the Bucks come in embarrassed after losing to the Lakers which the Lakers were a top play for me last night.  Bucks were in a terrible spot having beat the Warriors now they are on a back to back playing a better team and will be more focused.  Clippers are also coming off a 5 game road trip which first game back from those make it hard.  Clippers have also on covered twice in L6 home games

The Bulls come in winning 3 straight and covering in two of those.  They still aren't getting the respect because of some road trouble, but they are 10-3 at home and Memphis is just 6-6 on the road.  memphis is 2-3 SU L5.  I look for the Bulls to continue their winning streak and cover

The Bucks will be a public play no doubt tonmight.  Milwaukee getting a lot of love for beating the undefeated Warriors but it was a terrible spot for Golden St.  The Bucks also have the Clippers on deck tomorrow night who they are definitely looking more forward to play than the Lakers.  Lakers haven't been playing good at all no doubt about it but a 2-10 road record team shouldn't be favored in this spot.  Lakers will be the motivated team

The Grizzlies are only 6-5 on the road this year and the Heat are 10-4 @ home.  Miami comes into this losing 3 in a row SU and ATS.  We are getting a good price on Miami here because of that.  Expect the Heat to bounce back with a strong performance today.  

The Packers haven't been playing that well and that is why there is a short line.  Dallas getting some respect because of their road win @ Washington last week but it wasn't that impressive.  Green Bay still has a lot to play for and expect Rodgers to ride the hailmary momentum into this week.

Browns aren't getting any love because lets face it, they have been a dumpster fire all year.  I really like this spot here for them though.  Johnny their best QB is the starter and he has something to prove so there won't be any tanking.  Also Johnny is a massive upgrade at QB IMO for the Browns.  Mean while the public has been winning off the Niners covering 3 out of their last 4.  San Fran also won last week on the road @ Chicago as a 7 pt dog.  I firmly believe going against bad teams with a short line in trying to win back to back road games in the NFL.   

This is simply a great spot to back the Hornets.  Both teams are coming in off games last night.  The Celtics lost an absolute heart breaker in trying to hand the Warriors their first loss of the season.  The Hornets are quietly playing good ball winning 5 out of their L6.  The Celtics coming off an double OT expect them to fade away in the 2nd half.

Jazz come into this game off an huge win over the Pacers and I backed the Jazz in that game.  This line is begging for Utah action since the Kings are just 1-5 SU their L6.  Cousins has struggled the last 3 games only averaging 14 points, but the Jazz are without Gobert who could slow Cousins down.  This is a huge piece for the game tonight.  Kings will be looking to get back on track here as their first game during the three game home stretch.  

This line just begs for Maryland action for the obvious reason they are highly ranked.  After looking into this game I'm not so sure they should even be favored here.  UConn lost back to back game to Syracuse and Gonzaga by 3 points each.  They actually should have won both.  Maryland is a team I had high hopes for just like everyone else but they aren't passing my eye test right now.  They have struggled against some bad teams like Rider and Illinois St.  Both teams defensively give up nearly the same amount of points per game but clearly UConn has faced tougher competition.  Like the Huskies to pull the upset if you call it that

It seems crazy to back the Thunder here as they are just 3-5 on road season while the Grizzlies are 7-4 at home.  A few reason why we are seeing a low line here.  Thunder are just 2-8 ATS L10, Memphis already beat Thunder @ home (without Durant) and Thunder dropped two straight on the road @ Miami and Atlanta.  With all those reasons why would the Thunder be favored here?  The Grizzlies have been struggling big time with their shooting, but they are still winning games.  I see Thunder big bounce back here and Grizzlies will struggle to catch up being the worst 3 pt shooting team in the Western Conference. 

Warriors continue to do what they do best and that is win.  It has been very impressive to say the least.  There is great value here with Indiana, if you just go back and look a few games.  Warriors were favored by 7.5 @ both Utah and Toronto.  Indiana to me is the hottest team in basketball outside of the Warriors.  I would also make the case Indiana is the best right now in the Eastern Conference.  Catching 6.5 considering that you can't pass up on it.  This is also the Warriors 3rd road game in 4 days.  While the Pacers have had 2 days of rest after losing 2 road games in a row and that is why I believe we are seeing a lot higher line than we should

PACERS TOP PLAY!!!

I really think we are seeing great value here considering this is a neutral court game.  Talk about two teams that play the opposite way.  This West Virginia can really get up and go averaging 88 points per game.  Traditionally a very good defensive team and slower paced just like Virginia, West Virginia took to a San Diego St on a neutral court winning by 22!  Virginia is still without their best player in London Perrantes.  Even with him I think West Virginia is a better team right now.  Virginia's best win is a 6pt victory @ Ohio St who is clearly very down this year.  The uptempo will bother Virginia a lot more on a neutral court.

I believe we are seeing a big over reaction here.  The Wizards had top 5 talent in the Eastern Conference.  While they haven't play well overall lately they did win @ Cavs as only an 8.5 pt underdog.  After last nights performance expect the Wizards to come out with a lot of motivation.  Also Miami couldn't possibly be in any worse of a spot after beating the Thunder and Cavs in back to back home games, due for a let down.  

Mavs are coming in off a shootout win last night @ the Wizards and looks like Harris and Barea are doubtful.  The Knicks come off a bad loss @ Milwaukee and they have all the motivation here to get back on track.  The Mavs also shot 50% from the field which is extremely hard to duplicate in the NBA especially missing two key guards.  

We are getting really good value with a team that is 8-3 @ home this year.  The Hornets have actually been playing well lately.  6-2 SU L8 and the only losses came to Cavs and Warriors.  Why this line is low is because the Pistons have won and covered 4 in a row, but all of those were home games.  Pistons are also on a back to back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Hornets come off a nice win @ Chicago and this is only their 3rd game in 6 days.  

We are getting good value here with the Jazz since the Magic have won and covered 4 in a row.  Utah has had a couple days off to bounce back from the close Golden State loss.  Magic are in their 2nd game during this road trip.  If you go back and look at lines the Jazz were favored by 4 over Toronto and over OKC by 2.5 when they played @ Utah.  The Magic are clearly not those teams and the value is with the Jazz.  I also like the Jazz on offense better without Gobert who will be out for a while. 

5* NCAAB Big 10 ACC Challenge

I was shocked by this line thought it would be closer to 10.  We are getting great value here with Syracuse who wasn't picked to be that great this year and oddsmakers are still behind on them.  Cuse won the Battle for Atlantis beating Ranked UConn and Texas A&M SU as 6pt dogs.  Syracuse has been lighting it up from 3 shooting 41% and Wisconsin doesn't defend the 3 well at all.  Wisconsin is clearly missing Kaminsky and Dekker as they haven't found a true scorer.  Wisconsin coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma where they shot 23% from 3 not your typical Wisconsin team.  Wisconsin has shown zero hope so far this season while Syracuse has a lot of confidence.  Oddsmakers are saying these two teams are equal on a neutral court? I don't buy it! Swallow the points 

1* NBA Play

Warriors are clearly the best team in basketball and the public has benefited from them this year.  However, I was against them @ Utah and will be again tonight.  They are starting their road of 7 games.  This is also the home area/state for Curry and sometimes that doesn't always work as planned (Kobe last night where he grew up).  Curry is capable of torching it no doubt but also might force it a little to much.  The Hornets have won 5 out of their last 6 and only loss came to Cavs as only a 4pt dog.  Warriors are 3-7 L10 ATS @Hornets and home team is 4-1 ATS L5

1* 

I'm really high on this Cincinnati ball club this year I believe they are a top 10 team.  Butler is still getting respect because of their name and generally the average Joe always remembers that.  Butler's toughest game was vs Miami and they lost by 10 on a neutral court.  Cincy has two quality wins over Nebraska who took Miami to OT last night and George Washington who beat Virginia.  Cincy is very tough at home under Cronin.  This is Butler's first true road game.  

1* NCCAB

Big 10 / ACC Challenge 

Miami seemes to be everyone's new flavor of the week after they won the Puerto Rick Tip off.  Their two biggest wins were Utah who was highly ranked but that was based off last years performance and Butler.  Nebraska matches up well with Miami with their long lengthy guard play.  I was highly more impressed with Nebraska's performance in a loss to Cincinnati who I am very high on this year.  Miami just got a reality check in losing to Northeastern.  So how good are they?  Both teams shoot the ball well from 3 point range, but Miami does an extremely poor job of defending it.  Everyone knows when 3pt shooting teams go on the road in college bball its very hard to knock them down consistently.  Nebraska also has a big edge in rebounding over Miami.  Miami is 0-4 in the Big 10 ACC Challenge.  Miami also lost to Nebraska last year